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The Volcano Kilauea. 691
terranean cavity with great velocity. A, B, C, D indicate the path
of a moving fountain, which always terminated at D, the most violent
point. A is the place of "Old Faithful," erupting at the intervals to
he specified, liberating large volumes of gas or steam. At X there
was a bubbling of similar character, always accompanying A to the
right of Z, where the lava was constantly disappearing.
The second diagram (Fig. 4) indicates graphically the number of
eruptions in periods of ten minutes for nine hours upon February 15,
and eight hours the following day. The maximum number was 21
and the minimum 12, with the average of 16+ and 16.7-f.
It is the first time that any attempt has been made to record the
number and intensity of these outbursts, and the diagram may illus
trate one of the class of observations that will be made when the
Seismological Observatory shall be established at this locality.

RAILROADS IN ASIA MINOR.

ELLSWORTH HUNTINGTON.'11
The year 1909 has been characterized by an important renewal of
railroad building in Asia Minor. In addition to far-reaching plans,
which are as yet only under discussion, there are other plans which
are in actual process of accomplishment. The plans under discus
sion provide for a railroad which shall start on the Black Sea, pre
sumably at Samsun, and go southward across the" central plateau to
Sivas, about 4,500 feet above the sea, and then, southeast to Diarbekr
at the southern foot of the plateau, whence it will continue into
Mesopotamia to join the long-talked-of Baghdad Railway. From
Sivas branches will run east and west along the plateau. The special
object in view is to reach the rich mines of copper, silver and other
minerals which might be worked to great advantage if transporta
tion facilities were provided. An American company has offered to
finance the undertaking with no other guarantee than the right to
work all the mines along the zone within easy reach of the proposed
railroad. Far more definite than the plans mentioned above is the actual
work now being accomplished upon the Baghdad and Dineir Rail
ways. At the present day three railroads, financed by German,
French and English companies, respectively, run up the long east

692 Railroads in Asia Minor.
and west valleys which divide western Asia Minor into huge project
ing fingers of mountains. The original German road starts at
Scutari, opposite Constantinople, and follows the Sangarius River
more or less closely eastward and southeastward for 300 miles to
Angora. The French road runs almost due east from Smyrna up
the Gediz River for 200 miles to Anon Kara Hissar ; and the English
road, also starting from Smyrna, goes south along the seacoast to
Ephesus and then east up the Meander River nearly 200 miles to
Dineir. All three roads come to an end on the barren plateau of
Asia Minor at an elevation of about 3,000 feet. In addition to these,
another line, the finely equipped Baghdad Railway, leaves the old
northern line, half way from Constantinople to Angora, at Eski
Shehir where the plateau is first reached, and runs southward 75
miles across the plateau to Anon Kara Hissar, where it joins the road
from Smyrna up the Gediz Chai. Then it runs southeastward 300
miles farther to a point a little beyond Eregli and comes to an end at
the northern base of the high mountains which border the plateau
and shut it off from the northeast corner of the Mediterranean.
For years the Baghdad Railway has had no connection with the
French line to Smyrna. The two stations at Afion Kara Hissar were
a mile and a half apart, and the government would not allow them
to be connected ostensibly because the building of the extra two
kilometers of line would add a trifle to the kilometric guarantee paid
by the state. Five years ago the railroads undertook to build the
connecting link without permission. They built it and the line was
promptly torn up by the government. So for five years more all
traffic from the interior of the plateau to Smyrna was subjected to the
great delay and expense of transfer by wagons at Kara Hissar.
Under the new regime the link has once more been built, and since
the spring of 1909 has been in operation. The real cause of the
former opposition of the government was probably the desire to con
centrate all trade at Constantinople. Smyrna is the natural outlet
for the greater part of Asia Minor, and there can be no doubt that
the new arrangement will increase its trade at the expense of Con
stantinople. The recent growth of Smyrna to a size of nearly 350,-
000, as it is now estimated, shows the strength of its opposition
commercially. For six or seven years the Baghdad Railway has waited at the
edge of the plateau. At last it tis about to cross the mountains and
drop down to the warm, fertile Cilician Plain at Adana close to the
northeast corner of the Mediterranean Sea. Already surveys have
been completed across the Taurus range, which here borders the

CYPRUS,?
RAILROADS IN
ASIA MINOR
 R.R. in Operation MEDITERRANEAN
...... -projected or building SEA
SCALE : linch=15rmiles

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oa
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ROUTES OF PROJECTED LINES ON THIS MAP SHOW MERELY GENERAL DIRECTIONS.

694 Railroads in Asia Minor.
plateau, and the building of the track will begin at once. The high
est point reached is about 5,000 feet above sea level. From there the
road will run down the Chakit River, a branch of the Seihun or
ancient Sarus which flows through Adana. The famous Cilician
Gates, through which Darius, Xenephon, Alexander and other con
querors have passed, will be left about five miles to the west of the
line. From the pass over the Taurus to the edge of the Cilician
plain there is a descent of nearly 5,000 feet in a distance of about
70 miles as measured along the Chakit River without reference to
the minor windings. Part of the distance is through an almost inac
cessible gorge. Here there is a fall of over 2,000 feet in scarcely 20
miles ; so that the average grade for the entire distance is one in fifty.
Numerous tunnels will be required. German and Greek engineers
are now engaged in laying out the route which bristles with diffi
culties. At Adana the Baghdad Railway will connect with the short line
some forty miles long which traverses the Cilician plain in a south
westerly direction through Tarsus to the seacoast at Mersina. The
main line will not here touch the seacoast, but will go on eastward to
get around the northeast corner of the Mediterranean. As yet it
has not been finally decided whether the line shall go directly across
the Giaour Dagh Mountain of the Amanus range and so by the short
est route to Aleppo, or whether it shall skirt the coast for forty miles
to the small port of Alexandretta and then cross the mountains to
Aleppo. Neither route is easy. The present wagon road from
Alexandretta to Aleppo crosses a pass 2,000 feet high within ten miles
of Alexandretta. The difficulty of surmounting this pass is the reason
why the engineers are searching for an easier way which shall avoid
Alexandretta. Altogether the section of the Baghdad Railway, from
the Anatolian plateau to the great Syrian plain at Aleppo, involves
engineering feats of the first class. According to the statements of
the engineer in charge of the final surveys it is more difficult than any
railroad in Europe except that of the Simplon in Switzerland.
It will probably be five years, and possibly more, before the Bagh
dad Railway will be completed as far as Aleppo. It will there con
nect with the Mecca Railway, which already is in operation, through
Damascus to the holy city of Medina and will soon reach Mecca.
The Turkish railway project which is at present nearest com
pletion is the extension of the nominally English railroad up the
Meander R. beyond Dineir. The railroad reached D'ineir a dozen or
more years ago. Now it is to be extended along two branches, one
to Buldur, forty miles to the south, and the other to Isparta, an equal

Railroads in Asia Minor. 695
distance to the southeast. Both these places are towns of 20,000 or
25,000 people, famous for the attar of roses produced in their rose
gardens. Already the railroad is almost completed to Kechi Borlu,
the halfway station, whence the two branches diverge. The first
seven miles from Dineir consists of a great curve seven miles in
length, which brings the line back to a place only a little over a mile
from the town, but 700 feet higher than the starting point. Here a
limestone ridge is pierced by a tunnel 750 feet long and the road
comes out upon a smooth plain famous in mythology as the place
where Apollo flayed Marsyas after defeating him in playing the lyre.
Thence for 14 miles the line to Kechi Borlu is easy. It is expected
that the lines to both Isparta and Buldur will be completed within
two years. The Isparta line will be continued twenty miles the fol
lowing year to the picturesque town of Egerdir upon the beautiful
lake of the same name. The lake lies near the southern edge of the
Anatolian plateau. From, it a valley leads southward to Adalia,
about 100 miles away on the southern coast of Asia Minor. Down
this valley a railroad will doubtless some day be built, but not at once,
for there is a tremendous unexplored canyon fifteen or twenty miles
in length where the valley crosses the edge of the plateau.
When the lines now under construction are completed Turkey will
have a continuous railroad system nearly 2,000 miles long from the
political capital on the Bosphorus to the religious capital in distant
Arabia. After leaving the vicinity of Constantinople the railway
will not touch the seacoast at any point except perhaps Alexandretta.
The configuration of the mountains along the Syrian coast and of
the high plateau of Anatolia forbid this. There will, however, be
two outlets to the sea in Syria, namely the lines from Damascus to
Haifa, the mediaeval Acre, and to Beirut. There will be another out
let in the Cilician plain, and still a fourth at the western end of the
Anatolian plateau to Smyrna, the commercial capital of Asia Minor
and almost of Turkey. In addition to this there will be the Dineir
Railroad with half a dozen branches, all feeding into Smyrna,
and various branches of the main line from Smyrna to Anon Kara
Hissar. Altogether the western and southern parts of the Turkish
Empire will be comparatively well supplied with railroads. As the
facts given above well show, railroad construction in all parts of the
Empire except the southern plains is full of difficulty by reason of
the prevalence of mountains. The only place where mountains do
not oppose constant obstacles to railroad building is the central part
of the plateau which is either so dry or so high and cold that it
possesses very little wealth and few inhabitants. Altogether, in

696 Railroads in Asia Minor.
view of the physical nature of the country, the sparsity of population,
and the nature of the government, it is remarkable not that Turkey
has so few, but that she has so many railroads.

CORRESPONDENCE.
Some of the Difficulties of Precision in Circumpolar Instrumental
Observations.*
To the American Geographical Society: — All navigators, even in well-
known seas, know the liability to serious error in establishing their positions upon
the best charts by what is known as "Dead Reckoning,'' particularly when for
days they have been groping in fogs, driven by gales, tossed by heavy seas and
suffering from effects of abnormal weather.
Upon approaching dangerous coasts the careful navigator makes large safety
allowances for the uncertainties attending such calculations which depend so
largely upon individual judgment as to the strength and direction of the invisible
forces, which are constantly at work and so frequently drag the ship to its destruc
tion. Drift or leeway, the force and direction of capricious currents, uncertain
variations of compass, local deviations, errors in marking the speed of the ship,.
possible oversight of men, all combined, make dead reckoning only an approxi
mation of the true position of the navigator in any part of the ocean.
These elements of error are enormously exaggerated in the Arctic seas, and, if
Dr. Cook's and Commander Peary's declared positions should depend upon dead
reckoning alone, they might have extreme difficulty in proving 'to the satisfaction
of competent judges that either of them had reached their objective. Without the
corroborative evidence of astronomical observations, their statements of success
would be regarded as mainly guess work. Their "log books" could be written,
and courses and distances plotted on charts in New York, without either of them
doing more than disappearing from public view for the time covered by their
records. Throwing aside the dead reckoning, except so far as it adds to the interest of
their narrations, and may be corroborative in some measure of their progress, it
would seem that observations of the sun's altitude, both for latitude and longitude,
must be the only means of fixing, even with approximate certainty, the position
of the observer in circumpolar regions. The natural horizon, broken by ice hum
mocks, obscured by vapour, radiation and mirage, gives but an uncertain point
of contact with the sun's lower limb, and an artificial horizon is therefore a neces
sary part of the equipment.
Artificial horizons are of two descriptions — one of mercury and one a mirror.
The former, when the temperature is at or below the freezing point, must be
warmed artificially, and the latter levelled by spirit levels, adjustment screws, and
be placed upon a firm, solid base. Unless the spirit levels are warmed in the
temperatures recorded, the spirits would freeze and levelling by them would
become impracticable, however quickly applied. The mirror horizon on an un-
?Captain John S. Barnes, who makes this communication to the Society, was formerly of the
United States Navy, and as a navigator of sailing ships, he was, for many years, charged with the-
responsibility of fixing with accuracy the hourly position of a ship upon long voyages in varying^
climates.

Correspondence. 697
stable base would not give as satisfactory or truthful results, as the warmed
mercury which finds its own level.
The allowances for refraction, excessive at such low altitudes of the sun,
increased by the extreme cold and obliquity of the sun's rays passing through the
misty atmosphere, and depending upon barometrical and thermometrical conditions,
form elements of serious error in observations, depending largely upon the indi
vidual judgment of the observer.
The chronometers, or chronometer watches, regulated to Greenwich or Wash
ington time in a temperate climate, cannot be expected to go on from month to
month and year to year with absolute precision, particularly in such temperatures,
whether carried on the person, or transported on sleds and subjected to violent
shocks. Longitudes obtained by them may easily be erroneous— where one degree
of longitude is barely one nautical mile. It is extremely doubtful if any navigator,
however skilful, can find with approximate precision his longitude at or near the
Pole, unless by a series of observations extending over a number of days, using the
most accurate instruments and a perfectly correct chronometer.
The best made sextant, handled by a half-frozen, fur-clad man, cannot be
infallible. It is doubtful if two observers at the same time and place, with sepa
rate but similar sextants would record the same altitude. Like all delicately ad
justed instruments, extreme carefulness is necessary to preserve its integrity.
The results of Azimuth observations, if carefully and systematically made with
proper instruments, would constitute valuable contributions to scientific knowledge,
as to variations of the compass in Polar regions. It is to be hoped that Dr. Cook
with his surveying compass, and Commander Peary with his theodolite, made
frequent use of, them, but the same difficulties in accuracy would prevail. It
would be remarkable if either of the explorers preserved and can exhibit the
actual figures of their astronomical observations and calculations.
Astronomical facts can not be created, manipulated, incorrectly stated or mis
applied. An incorrect altitude at a given place and moment of Greenwich time
will be apparent.
The navigating instruments used by Arctic explorers are necessarily few in
number, light in weight, small in dimensions and delicate in construction, all sub
ject to damage and errors, arising from the severe climate, the rough handling in
sledge transportation, and are necessarily more or less incorrect in their render
ings. All of them should be subjected to careful inspection on their return to
observatories. The astonishing physical endurance of the Arctic explorers under such trying
conditions, their isolation, the constantly impending danger to life, benumbed by
cold, half starved, fatigued almost beyond human limits, the absence of intelligent
sympathy with the object by ignorant companions, without assistance in their
scientific work, unite in making the stories of their exploits, matters of intense
interest. One can only wonder that any men situated as Dr. Cook or Commander
Peary describe themselves^ could calmly make observations and work out the
problems confronting them, with satisfaction to themselves or others.
Whether either or both of them ever reached the Geographical Pole remains
yet to be proven, but the public has always sympathy for the relations of brave
endeavour to accomplish what has been considered the impossible. JOHN S. BARNES'.
Coldbrooke, Lenox, Mass., Oct. n, 1909.

GEOGRAPHICAL RECORD.
NORTH AMERICA.
The Survey for the Georgian Bay Ship Canal. — The Canadian government
has decided to build this canal. The project of building a ship canal from French
River Village, on Georgian Bay, to Montreal, has been discussed for years. The
length of the canal will be 440 miles and will provide a deep waterway from
the Great Lakes to the Atlantic -via the St. Lawrence River. An enormous facility
for transportating very cheaply to Europe the grain of the Canadian west, will
thus be provided. It is believed, in fact, that the route will attract much of our
own wheat exports from Minnesota and North Dakota, as providing a line of
least resistance to the seaboard.
The proposed canal is to follow the French and Ottawa rivers to Montreal.
The Engineering Board of the Ministry of Public Works began, in 1904, to make
surveys and investigations regarding the feasibility and probable cost of the pro
posed waterway. Its voluminous report, submitted in January last, fills a volume
of 600 pages, covering the ground in great detail and illustrated by many maps,
plans and profiles, many of them in the volume and 56 others accompanying it.
The main conclusion is that a 22-foot waterway can be established in ten years,
for the largest lake boats, at a cost of $100,000,000, and that the annual main-
tainance will be approximately $900,000. Alternative routes for greater or less
distances along the general line of the waterway are discussed and estimated
upon.

The Cruise of the Carnegie. — The magnetic survey yacht, Carnegie sailed
from St. John's, N. F., on Oct. 2, for Falmouth, England. Dr. Bauer was on
board, but he will return from Falmouth to Washington. The Carnegie will
leave Falmouth, under command of Mr. Wm. J. Peters, for Madeira and will
jreturn to New York, via Bermuda, in March.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
Growth of Buenos Aires. — The Year-Book of the City of Buenos Aires for
1908, issued in English (xxx and 366 pp.), shows that the population at the end
of 1908 was 1,189,180, an increase of 59,894 over 1907, or a growth of 5.3 per
cent, in a year, a rate that is not surpassed by any other city in the world. The
principal factors in this growth were the excess of births over deaths and immi
gration. The birth-rate was high, compared with other large cities — 34.31 per
1,000 inhabitants— and the death-rate was only 15.25 per 1,000 inhabitants. The
birth-rate in London, for the same year, was 25.7 and in New York, 28.5. Ac
cording to the Year-Book, only Chicago can boast of ai more rapid growth than
Buenos Aires, and is able to say that it has doubled its population within a shorter
space of time.

The Grazing Industry in Patagonia. — The grazing resources of Patagonia
are now utilized to a very small extent, practically the only herds and flocks in
the region being found along the eastern coast, where transportation facilities of
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YALE UNIVERSITY LIBRARY

3 9002 08837 1878