C-JW-P- u:' - I UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS Agricultural Experiment Station BULLETIN No. 183 PRICES AND SHRINKAGE OF FARM GRAINS BY W. L. BUELISON AND O. M. ALLYN URBANA, ILLINOIS, NOVEMBER, 1915 SUMMARY OP BULLETIN No. 183 1. Prices of farm crops in general are regulated by commercial market quotations, which in turn are governed by supply and demand. Page 13 2. The increase in prices of crops within the last few decades has not been so great as many people have believed. By comparing the average prices for the fifteen years preceding the financial crisis of 1894 to 1898, with the average prices for the fifteen years succeeding this period, it will be seen that the average in- crease has been only 9.2 cents per bushel for corn and 6.5 cents for oats, while the average price for wheat has not increased. The price for barley has tended to decrease, while the price for rye has increased about the same as that for corn. Page 14 3. In general, for the last thirty years the times of lowest average price for corn, wheat, and oats correspond closely to the times of largest average receipts. Except during the summer months, the same is true for rye, and also for barley during the last ten years. Pages 16-21 4. Shrinkage is one of the most important factors to be taken into con- sideration in holding corn for higher prices. The total shrinkage during the year is more than 15 percent. Taking November as a base, the data show that there is no month for which the price increases sufficiently to compensate for shrinkage. If January or February is taken as a base, then the increase in price, up to but not including October, more than compensates for shrinkage alone. Page 21 5. Not so much is known of the shrinkage of wheat and oats as of corn. It may be said that they shrink comparatively little after they have gone thoroly thru the sweat. It would seem profitable, so far as shrinkage alone is concerned, to hold small grain until the time of highest prices. Page 24 PRICES AND SHRINKAGE OF FARM GRAINS BY W. L. BUELISON, ASSOCIATE CHIEF IN CROP PRODUCTION, AND O. M. ALLYN, FIRST ASSISTANT IN CROP PRODUCTION When is the best time to sell my crop? Will I make more by holding my grain, expecting later a price which will more than com- pensate for the shrinkage which will occur during the intervening period, or will it be more profitable to sell my corn from the field and my small grain froir the threshing machine? These are ques- tions which are coming up continually, and which have called for the issuance of this bulletin. In the handling of farm grains, especially corn, shrinkage plays an important role, and the shrinkage factor should always be considered when the producer is holding his grains for higher prices. The facts relating to the problem, so far as they are available, are herein presented. These facts should prove a valuable guide; how- ever, because of the nature of the subject, the element of chance is always involved, and the individual farmer must make the final de- cision as to the time to sell. It is probable that the average price of farm crops for a ten-year period will represent what the farmer may expect for his commodi- ties under normal conditions. The reports of the Chicago board of trade are the most complete of any in America, and should be very reliable, for Chicago is the largest and probably the most important grain market in the United States. Since Chicago is the controlling market for Illinois, the price calculations reported in this bulletin are based on the reports of the Chicago board of trade. 1 Figures for 1914 have been eliminated because of abnormal prices due to the European war. Prices of farm crops in general are regulated by commercial market quotations, which in turn are governed normally by supply and de- mand. Thru the boards of trade or exchanges, the large commercial grain and provision markets report the daily quotations for all kinds of farm produce and these reports are sent over the country by wire and by mail. It is upon these quotations that the local grain dealers and elevator managers depend in giving local prices to the farmer. In estimating the price which he may receive, the grower should keep in mind that the local grain dealer must pay less for crops than for standard grade only used. 13 14 BULLETIN No. 183 [November, the large commercial markets, such as Chicago or St. Louis. The main factors which the local dealer considers in the management of his business are the following: 1. Working capital and interest on money invested 2. Maintenance and running expenses 3. Salary of operator 4. Insurance on elevator and contents 5. Freight to terminal markets 6. Shrinkage 7. Inspection, switching charges, and weighing commission 8. Insurance and storage at terminal market These items are so variable that it is well nigh impossible to cite a figure which might give the farmer a safe basis upon which to esti- mate farm prices. Dealers must buy on a margin which will enable them to handle profitably the different crops. Usually the dealer's working margin is not exorbitant, but is fairly uniform for a given locality, and much confidence can be placed in the relative prices quoted by the local dealer and the large terminal markets. There seems to be a feeling among farmers that the prices of crops have increased very materially within the last few decades. Table 1 gives the average price 1 of corn, wheat, and oats in five-year periods TABLE 1. AVERAGE PRICE OF FARM GRAINS, BY FIVE-YEAR PERIODS, FROM 1879 TO 1913 (Cents per bushel) Crop 1879 to 1883 1884 to 1888 1889 to 1893 1894 to 1898 1899 to 1903 1904 to 1908 1909 to 1913 General average Corn 48.7 43.1 43.0 33 2 45.5 53.7 632 47 2 Wheat 106.7 81.6 83.4 69.5 73.4 93.3 105.1 87.6 Oats 33.5 27.9 30.0 23.2 30.6 39.1 414 322 Barley 62.3 1 63 6 40 9 48 8 555 742 57 7 Eve. . 56.1 2 59.5 44.0 53.3 71.5 77.9 60.4 Prices for 1884 and 1888 are not reported in full. 3 Prices for 1884 are not reported in full. TABLE 2. AVERAGE PRICE OF FARM GRAINS, BY FIFTEEN-YEAR PERIODS (Cents per bushel) Crop 1879 to 1893 1899 to 1913 Increase in price for 1899-1913 over 1879-1893 Corn 44.9 54.1 92 Wheat 90.6 90.6 0.0 Oats 30.5 37.0 65 Barley 63.0 1 59.5 (-3.5) Eve . 58.0 1 67.8 9.8 Averages for 1884 to 1893. See also footnotes to Table 1. *A11 price averages reported in this bulletin are based upon daily averages made up of the lowest and highest daily wholesale market prices. The data in- volve more than 175,000 calculations. 1915] PRICES AND SHRINKAGE OF FARM GRAINS 15 for the past thirty-five years 1 and for barley and rye as far back as figures are available in the trade reports. A hasty inspection of this table might seem to confirm this impression. However, the actual ad- vance has not in reality been so great as might appear. The years covered by the statistics include a period of great business depression. In fact, the first five-year period, that from 1879 to 1883, just pre- ceded a decided reduction in prices. By another sudden decrease, prices reached their lowest limit in the period 1894 to 1898. Since that time, there has been a steady increase. A better conception of the actual advance in prices may be ob- tained by comparing the average prices for the fifteen years preced- ing the financial crisis of 1894 to 1898 with the average prices for the fifteen years succeeding this period. These figures are given in Table 2 in full for corn, wheat, and oats, and for a part of this period for barley and rye. Comparing prices on this basis, it will be seen that the average increase has been only 9.2 cents per bushel for corn, and 6.5 cents for oats, while the average price for wheat has not increased. The tendency for the price of barley has been to decrease, while rye has increased about the same as corn. The relative prices for the different months of the year require further discussion. Table 3, which follows, gives this information for corn, wheat, oats, barley, and rye on the Chicago market. The actual farm price of crops varies so greatly with local conditions that it is impossible to establish a uniform farm price for Illinois. TABLE 3. AVERAGE PRICE OF FARM GRAINS FOR THE TEN-YEAR PERIOD 1904-1913 (Cents per bushel) Month Corn Wheat Oats Barley Rye January 52.0 100.1 39.5 67.2 74.0 February 52.5 100.9 40.9 66.1 752 March 54.4 100.7 40.9 67.4 75.8 April 57.2 101 5 41.7 67.1 765 May 00.3 106 3 43.4 67.3 79.4 June 60.3 103 4 43.4 64.4 76.6 July 62.1 95 2 42.8 61.5 73.2 August 64.2 92 3 37.8 60.2 71.0 September 63.6 95 6 386 63.9 73.1 October 60.5 98 4 38.0 63.8 75.0 November 58.3 97 4 37 6 64.3 73.8 December 55.7 98 8 38.6 65.6 73.3 Averaere . 58.4 99.2 40.3 64.9 74.7 J Specie payment was resumed January 1, 1879, previous to which time prices are not comparable, because of the depreciated currency. 16 BULLETIN No. 183 [November, In considering the best time of the year to market his crops, the farmer should bear in mind that his margin of profit depends upon net prices, not gross, and that the highest gross price per bushel or per ton does not necessarily mean the most profitable one. The factors which should be balanced against the advance in price from month to month over the price at harvest time are interest, shrinkage, storage, and extra cost of handling, which factors, with the possible exception of shrinkage, will have to be determined by the farmer himself. The monthly price averages for farm grains, shown in Table 3, together with the monthly percentages of total annual receipts, for the 64 62 60 58 56 54 52 50 48 46 44 42 40 38 *' s V ,-'' s s ,' "v v ,' PRICE PRICE RECEI RECEII 5 BY MO 5 BY MO >TS BY tt >TS BY IV x - \ \ ^~ ~* ,~"' F ^ K^ ^ " - * \. "V 14 113 il2 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 . in L Ljn E 1 1 1 1 1 I UJ O FIG. 3. Oats: Average Monthly Price and Average Monthly Percentage of Total Annual Eeceipts for the Ten Years 1904-1913; also Price and Percentage Receipts for the Previous Twenty Years 1915] PRICES AND SHRINKAGE OP FARM GRAINS The monthly percentage of the total annual receipts for the same ten-year period declined gradually from January to April, and in- creased in May and June. From July to November the receipts were somewhat low, except for September, but they were higher from December to March. They were almost as great in September as in June, the month of highest percentage receipts. 67 66 65 64 63 62 E 3 60 * 59 i . _ *>, s \ \ V \ \ s ^ f \ \ s - \ / h / "N / -- PRICES BY MONTHS, 1904 to 1913 PRICES BY MONTHS, 1885 to 1903, Excluding 1888 RECEIPTS BY MONTHS. 1904 to 1913 RECEIPTS BY MONTHS, 1884 to 1903 rf 58 5 57 ' 56 t 55 3 54 53 52 51 50 49 .48 '47 a H ^. / s / \ / > *^ / ~^** ^> ^^ y/ \ / \ / \ / s / 18 2 16 2 14 g 12 $ 10 I 6 4- 2 L i iff i 1 I i i i I 1 1 1 n i i 1 1 1 1 III I 1 1 FIG. 4. Barley: Average Monthly Price and Average Monthly Percentage of Total Annual Eeceipts for the Ten Years 1904-1913; also Price for the Previous Nineteen Years (Excepting 1888) and Percentage Eeceipts for the Previous Twenty Years 20 BULLETIN No. 183 [November, It must be evident that if the average price of corn did not in- crease from January to August, the farmer would lose to the extent of the shrinkage on all corn held. Whether the advance in the market price between the time of cribbing and the time of marketing is suffi- cient to compensate fully for the shrinkage which occurs, is another question, which will be considered under ' ' Shrinkage of Corn. ' ' PRICES BY MONTHS, 1904 to 1913 PRICES BY MONTHS, 1885 to 1903 RECEIPTS BY MONTHS, 1S04 to 1913 RECEIPTS BY MONTHS, 1884 to 1903 I FIG. 5. Rye: Average Monthly Price and Average Monthly Percentage of Total Annual Receipts for the Ten Years 1904-1913; also Price for the Previous Nineteen Years and Percentage Receipts for the Previous Twenty Years 1915] PRICES AND SHRINKAGE OF FARM GRAINS 21 Attention is called to the marked similarity in the two curves and in the two graphs. With wheat, the times of lowest average price correspond closely to the times of largest average receipts; the highest average prices with the months of lowest average receipts. With oats, also, the months of lowest average price correspond closely to the months of highest receipts. The prices for barley during the last ten years, and for rye during both periods, show a marked tendency to decrease in anticipation of increased receipts, which is not the case, as a rule, with corn, wheat, and oats. With the exception of the summer months, the tendency in the prices and receipts for barley and rye is about the same as for corn, wheat, and oats; that is, when the receipts are relatively high, the prices are low, and vice versa. SHRINKAGE OF CORN Shrinkage is one of the most important factors in the handling of the corn crop, especially if the grain is to be held for higher prices. In 1903 the Illinois Station began an experiment to determine the rates of shrinkage of ear corn. Each year about 300 bushels of corn was hauled direct from the field and placed in an open crib, protected by tight roof and by slat sides, where it was left until the next crop was gathered. Four times each month the crib and its contents were weighed to determine the shrinkage. The average of the four weigh- ings was taken as the monthly average from which to compute the shrinkage of the corn. The results are presented in Table 4. TABLE 4. AVERAGE SHRINKAGE OF CORN BY MONTHS, FOR THE YEARS 1903-1913, 1 URBANA, ILLINOIS (Expressed in percentage) Month 1903 1905 1906 1907 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 Average to date Monthly average Nov g 2.5 1.06 (-.07) 1.81 1.87 1.33 Dec. . . 3.2 5.5 2.82 2.18 4.54 1.17 5.01 1.65 3.26 1.93 Jan.. . 4.5 6.7 3.32 4.52 4.80 2.70 6.76 2.98 1.13 4.16 .90 Feb. . . 5.6 8.6 4.88 6.30 6.45 3.83 7.48 3.90 2.28 5.48 1.32 Mar. . . 6.9 8.5 7.25 9.35 9.19 6.94 7.58 5.01 1.85 6.95 1.47 Apr.. . 11.1 10.0 10.48 12.37 13.53 8.73 11.44 7.19 5.06 9.99 3.04 May. . 15.4 13.6 11.86 13.76 13.74 12.41 17.10 11.17 8.85 13.10 3.11 June . . 17.9 14.2 13.20 16.79 15.69 15.14 20.31 13.16 11.25 15.29 2.19 July. . 19.0 15.3 14.12 18.02 15.71 16.78 20.31 13.62 12.52 16.15 .86 Aug. . . 20.2 15.1 14.78 19.00 15.56 16.92 21.17 13.51 13.26 16.61 .46 Sept. . 19.8 15.2 15.18 20.10 14.77 15.42 21.28 13.70 12.06 16.39 (-.22) Oct. . . 19.8 ... 15.52 20.55 14.91 14.70 21.64 12.23 13.03 16.54 .15 Nov. . . 19.9 . . . 15.10 20.16 15.41 14.74 21.58 11.16 12.38 16.30 (-.24) Dec. 10.09 'With the exception of 1904 and 1908, for which data are unavailable. 22 BULLETIN No. 183 [November, In these experiments the months of maximum shinkage were found to be April, May, and June. After January there was a gradual in- crease in the shrinkage rate until May, and from that point on there was a decided decrease. The corn reached its minimum weight in August. The Ohio Station conducted shrinkage experiments for six years, but the method employed was so different from that used by the Illi- nois Station that the results obtained by the two stations are not di- rectly comparable. Nevertheless, in a general way, their results con- firm those of the Illinois Station. In discussing the Ohio experiments, Williams and Welton make the following statement :* To determine the loss of moisture in ear corn month by month thruout the year, 100 pounds were stored in a box on the second floor of a corn crib, Novem- ber 1, 1908, and weighed the first of each month thereafter for a year. The sides and top of box, being made of wire netting, the conditions for drying out were favorable. Barring a few exceptions, the shrinkage for each year has increased gradually, reaching a maximum the first of July, August, or September, depend- ing upon climatic conditions. The maximum shrinkage has ranged from 6.5 to 24.75 percent, and, as an average of six years, is 19.96 percent. This has occurred August 1. As the cool, moist weather of fall approaches, the corn begins to take up moisture, hence the slightly lower percentage of shrinkage in September and October. Iowa has carried on investigations similar to those reported above for Illinois and Ohio, with essentially the same results. Since the investigations of Illinois, Iowa, and Ohio are not directly comparable, and since the work of Illinois is more extensive than the TABLE 5. PROFIT OR Loss FROM HOLDING CORN Month Percentage shrinkage up to and insluding month given Price per bushel neces- sary to com- pensate for shrinkage Actual ten- year average price 1904-13 Loss per bushel based on November price Profit per bushel based on February price November .... December '3l26 4.16 5.48 6.95 9.99 13.10 15.29 16.15 16.61 16.39 16.54 cents cents 58.30 55.70 52.00 52.50 54.40 57.20 60.30 60.30 62.10 64.20 63.60 60.50 cents cents 60.26 60.83 61.68 62.65 64.77 67.09 68.82 69.53 69.91 69.73 69.85 4.56 8.83 9.18 8.25 7.57 6.79 8.52 7.43 5.71 6.13 9.35 January February March .93 1.61 2.39 .66 1.75 3.47 3.05 r-.m April May June July August September .... October . NOTE. Buyers may take more corn for a bushel in November; if so, this fact should also be considered by the farmer. 'Ohio Exp. Sta. Bui. 282, Corn Experiments. 1915. 1915] PRICES AND SHRINKAGE OF FARM GRAINS 23 others, the results obtained by Illinois are used as a basis for the cal- culations which appear in Tables 5 and 6. An inspection of Table 5 shows that there is no month after Novem- ber for which the price increases sufficiently to compensate for shrink- age. In fact, the price decreases until January. If, however, January or February is taken as a base, prices being lowest during those months, then the increase in price during the succeeding months, up to but not including October, more than compensates for shrinkage alone. TABLE 6. CORN: PRICES NECESSARY EACH MONTH TO COMPENSATE FOE SHRINKAGE (Cents per bushel based on November price) November price To compensate for shrinkage, the price should be: Dee. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. 40 40.5 41.3 41.7 42.3 43.0 44.4 46.0 47.2 47.7 48.0 47.8 41 41.6 42.4 42.8 43.4 44.1 45.6 47.2 48.4 48.9 49.2 49.0 42 42.6 43.4 43.8 44.4 45.1 46.7 48.3 49.6 50.1 50.4 50.2 43 43.6 44.4 44.9 45.5 46.2 47.8 49.5 50.8 51.3 51.6 51.4 44 44.6 45.5 45.9 46.6 47.3 48.9 50.6 51.9 52.5 52.8 52.6 45 45.6 46.5 47.0 47.6 48.4 50.0 51.8 53.1 53.7 54.0 53.8 46 46.6 47.6 48.0 48.7 49.4 51.1 52.9 54.3 54.9 55.2 55.0 47 47.6 48.6 49.0 49.7 50.5 52.2 54.1 55.5 56.1 56.4 56.2 48 48.6 49.6 50.1 50.S 51.6 53.3 55.2 56.7 57.2 57.6 57.4 49 49.7 50.7 51.1 51.8 52.7 54. i 56.4 57.8 58.4 58.8 58.6 50 50.7 51.7 52.2 52.9 53.7 55.5 57.5 59.0 59.6 60.0 59.8 51 51.7 52.7 53.2 54.0 54.8 56.7 58.7 60.2 60.8 61.2 61.0 52 52.7 53.8 54.3 55.0 55.9 57.8 59.8 61.4 62.0 62.4 62.2 53 53.7 54.8 55.3 56.1 57.0 58.0 61.0 62.6 63.2 63.6 63.4 54 54.7 55.8 56.3 57.1 58.0 60.0 62.1 63.7 64.4 64.8 64.6 55 55.7 56.9 57.4 58.2 59.1 61.1 63.3 64.9 65.6 66.0 65.8 56 56.8 57.9 58.4 59.2 60.2 62.2 64.4 66.1 66.8 67.2 67.0 57 57.8 58.9 59.5 60.3 61.3 63.3 65.6 67.3 68.0 68.4 68.2 58 58.8 60.0 60.5 61.4 62.3 64.1 66.7 68.5 69.2 69.6 69.4 59 59.8 61.0 61.6 62.4 63.4 65.5 67.9 69.6 70.4 70.8 70.6 60 60.8 62.0 62.6 63.5 64.5 66.7 69.0 70.8 71.6 72.0 71.8 61 61.8 63.1 63.6 64.5 65.6 67.8 70.2 72.0 72.7 73.2 73.0 62 62.8 64.1 64.7 60.6 66.6 68.9 71.3 73.2 73.9 74.3 74.2 63 63.8 65.1 65.7 66.7 67.7 70.0 72.5 74.4 75.1 75.5 75.3 64 64.9 66.2 66.8 67.7 68.8 71.1 73.6 75.6 76.3 76.7 76.5 65 65.9 67.2 67.8 68.8 69.9 72.2 74.8 76.7 77.5 77.9 77.7 66 66.9 68.2 68.9 69.8 70.9 73.3 75.9 77.9 78.7 79.1 78.9 67 67.9 69.3 69.9 70.9 72.0 74.4 77.1 79.1 79.9 80.3 80.1 68 68.9 70.3 71.0 71.9 73.1 75.5 78.3 80.3 81.1 81.5 81.3 69 69.9 71.3 72.0 73.0 74.2 76.7 79.4 81.5 82.3 82.7 82.5 70 70.9 72.4 73.0 74.1 75.2 77.8 80.6 82.6 83.5 83.9 83.7 71 72.0 73.4 74.1 75.1 76.3 78.9 81.7 83.8 84.7 85.1 84.9 72 73.0 74.4 75.1 7i3.2 77.4 80.0 82.9 85.0 85.9 86.3 86.1 73 74.0 75.5 76.2 77.2 78.5 81.1 84.0 86.2 87.1 87.5 87.3 74 75.0 76.5 77.2 78.3 79.5 82.2 85.2 87.4 88.3 88.7 88.5 75 76.0 77.5 78.3 79.3 80.6 83.3 86.3 88.5 89.4 89.9 89.7 78 77.0 78.6 79.3 80.4 81.7 84.4 87.5 89.7 90.6 91.1 90.9 77 78.0 79.6 80.3 81.5 S2.8 85.5 88.6 90.9 91.8 92.3 92.1 78 79.1 80.6 81.4 82.5 83.8 86.7 89.8 92.1 93.0 93.5 93.3 79 80.1 81.7 82.4 83.6 84.9 87.8 90.9 93.3 94.2 94.7 94.5 80 81.1 82.7 83.5 84.0 86.0 88.9 92.1 94.4 95.4 95.9 95.7 24 BULLETIN No. 183 [November, To facilitate finding the price per bushel necessary each month to compensate for shrinkage when holding corn which ranges in price from 40 to 80 cents per bushel as an average for November, Table 6 has been constructed, based on shrinkage data included in Table 5. SHRINKAGE OF WHEAT AND OATS It may be said that wheat and oats shrink comparatively little after the grain has gone thoroly thru the sweat. Where small grain is stored in large elevators, it is estimated that the shrinkage runs from 1 to 2 percent in six months. TABLE 7. AVAILABLE DATA ON THE SHRINKAGE OP WHEAT WHICH MIGHT APPLY TO ILLINOIS CONDITIONS Station Length of storage Condition of tests Percentage shrinkage Ohio Michigan. . 3 years 232 days 14 samples, thoroly dry, stored in bin of wheat for nearly 1 year; then left in cor- ner of bin until expiration of 3 years. . . . Wheat dry and in good condition. Bins open at top. Soft White to 4.94 Av. 2.32 .5 Hard Bed .1 Michigan. . 10 days 1500 bushels stored in elevator in hard and dry condition after threshing. (Christian Breisch & Co., Millers, North Lansing, Michigan) 2.0 TABLE 8. AVAILABLE DATA ON THE SHRINKAGE OF OATS WHICH MIGHT APPLY TO ILLINOIS CONDITIONS Station Length of storage Condition of tests Percentage shrinkage Ohio Michigan . . Michigan . . Michigan. . Sept., 1892 to March, 1893 (about 6 mos.) Aug. 11, 1896 to March 18, 1897 (7 mos. 7 days) Sept. 13, 1897 to March 1, 1898 (5 mos. 17 dys.) Oct. 8, 1899 to May 10, 1900 (7 mos. 2 dys.) 54 varieties aggregating 4243 Ibs., re- cleaned, hung in ordinary bags, in ar- tificially warmed rooms 1.00 .21 1.61 2.00 3.40 100 bushels binned, without recleaning, 1 hour after threshing. Dry condi- tions, but wet once with rain while in shock Stored in sheep barn 806 Ibs. International oats 550 Ibs. New Marine oats 1038 Ibs. stored in tight bin ment Station barn .... in Experi- NOTE. Data in Tables 7 and 8 are taken from Mich. Exp. Sta. Bui. 191, Shrinkage of Farm Products, by C. D. Smith. 1901. 1915] PRICES AND SHRINKAGE OF FARM GRAINS 25 The chief causes of shrinkage of wheat and oats stored on the farm are rats, mice, and granary insects. When small grains are held over from threshing time until the following year, one may count very safely, under normal conditions, on a shrinkage of not more than 1 or 2 percent; and when the grain is very dry when threshed, the subsequent gain by absorption of moisture in damp weather may amount to as much or more than the normal shrinkage. The fact that grains fluctuate in weight according to the tempera- ture and humidity of the atmosphere, is brought out by a study of Table 4 (see August to November) and by the following results re- ported for other experiments: Hilgard, 1 of California, found that when wheat and oats were placed in air saturated with moisture, the gain in weight at 64.4 F. was as follows : Oats 19.8 percent (18 days) Wheat 18.8 percent (14 days) The increase in all cases was very rapid at first ; in fact half the total increase occurred during the first twenty-four hours. After that, the rate of absorption decreased slowly until the thirteenth or four- teenth day, when a sudden increase occurred due to growth of mold' on the grains. In the same experiment Hilgard found that when air-dry grain was exposed to artificially dried air at the same temperature (64.4 P.) for 18 days, the loss in weight was as follows: Oats 9.3 percent Wheat 6.2 percent Sanborne 2 found that even in the dry climate of Utah, wheat gained slightly in weight during winter storage. Harris and Thomas 3 report that, contrary to popular opinion, there is a gain of 2y 2 to 4 1 /> percent, instead of a loss, in the weight of small grain, like wheat and oats, during the fall after harvest. They found that in every case the grain weighed less at threshing time than at any other time, and that there was a gain in weight during the winter and a loss during the summer. While these data may not apply to Illinois conditions, they show that small grains which may be very dry when threshed, take up moisture thereafter, if the humidity is high, thus gaining in weight. Reported in Mich. Exp. Sta. Bui. 191. ^Reported in Mich. Exp. Sta. Bui. 191. "Utah Exp. Sta. Bui. 130. 26 BULLETIN No. 183 [November Having determined the months of highest average prices for wheat and oats (see Figs. 2 and 3), the question naturally arises whether these crops can, as a rule, be held with profit for higher prices. The question is answered, with respect to shrinkage, in Table 9, assuming in one case that the grain be marketed after threshing in August, and in the other that it be stored until the following year, when a shrinkage of 1% percent may be counted on. TABLE 9. GAIN FROM HOLDING WHEAT AND OATS FOR HIGHEST PRICE (Cents per bushel) Crop Ten-year average price for August Price necessary to compensate for 1.5 percent shrinkage Highest ten-year average price Gain by holding for highest price Wheat . . Oats 92.3 37.8 93.7 38.4 106.3 May 43.4 May-June 12.6 5.0 Considering the ten-year period, it would seem to be profitable, so far as shrinkage alone is concerned, to hold small grain until the time of highest prices ; but there are other factors, such as conveniences in making delivery, condition of roads, cost of labor and storage, losses by rats and mice, and by insects (weevil, etc.), so local in character that only the individual farmer can give them proper consideration. j UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS-URBANA