INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR THE SCIENTIFIC STUDY OF POPULATION UNION INTERNATIONALE POUR L'ETUDE SCIENTIFIQUE DE LA POPULATION contributed papers SYDNEY CONFERENCE AUSTRALIA - 21 to 25 AUGUST 1967 BERKELEY LIBRARY PUBLIC HEALTH LIRRARY UNIVERSITY OP CALIFORNIA INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR THE SCIENTIFIC STUDY OF POPULATION h UNION INTERNATIONALE POUR L'ETUDE SCIENTIFIQUE DE LA POPULATION CONTRIBUTED PAPERS SYDNEY CONFERENCE AUSTRALIA 21st to 25th August 1967 HD 849 Ie Ce i 196 7 PREFACE A meeting of the Assembly of the I.U.S.S.P. held in September 1965 agreed that the next meeting of the Union should be held in Australia in 1967. The Australian members of the Union undertook to act as an organising committee for this occasion. Subsequent correspondence between the committee and the executive of the Union led to the decision that the main, although not exclusive, theme of the Conference should be the population of the ECAFE region, and the papers now presented are the result of those decisions. The papers in this volume exclude the statements of Moderators and Rapporteurs, the intention being that edited versions of these will be prepared for separate publication as quickly as possible after the Conference. The present volume includes all the papers submitted by the closing date set down by the organising committee, that is June 15th 1967. We regret that the printing schedule did not permit the inclusion of a few papers which arrived after this date. The Sydney Conference and the publication of these papers have been made possible by the generous assistance of many outside bodies. We refer particularly to a grant from the Australian Government to meet the costs of the organisation of the Conference, and further generous grants from the following to assist with the travel of persons from the Asian area = The Population Council The Myer Foundation, Melbourne, Australia The Ian Potter Foundation, Melbourne, Australia The Reserve Bank of Australia With this travel assistance the committee was able to help some thirty people to come to Sydney. Finally the committee wishes to express its appreciation of the backing given by the Australian National University which has made possible the publication of this volume of papers. W.D. BORRIE Chairman, Australian Organising Committee. 536 ii CONTENTS Preface SESSION I REVIEW OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS IN ECAFE REGION SESSION II DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION RE-EXAMINED "Wanteds A Theory of the Demographic Transition", Mercedes B. Concepcion and E.M. Murphy "Population Forecasts and Trends in Malaya", J.C. Caldwell "Mortality Level and Desired Family Size", D.M. Heer and D.O. Smith "Theoretical Considerations Regarding Differential Transition", Re. Mackensen "Demographic Transition and Fertility Declines The European Case", E. van de Walle and J. Knodel "Les Problémes de la Révolution Démographique", Z. Pavlik SESSION III THE IMPLICATIONS OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS IN ECAFE REGION FOR THE GROWTH OF THE WORKFORCE, INVESTMENT AND EMPLOYMENT "Population, Labour Force and Economic Development in Japan", Y. Okazaki "Implications of Demographic Trends for Employment and Investment Policy in India”, J.N. Sinha "The Implications of Demographic Trends in the 'ECAFE' Region for the Growth of the Workforce, Investment and Employment", A. Ghosh "Demographic Aspects of Potential Labour Force Growth in Pakistan", L.L. Bean Page 5-13 14-25 26-36 37-46 47-55 56-59 63-69 70-77 78-86 87-97 iii "Fertility Control, Investment and Per Capita Outputs A Demographic-Econometric Model of the Philippines", T.K. Ruprecht "Population Growth and Manpower Planning in ECAFE Region", S. Nagda "Recent Development in Employment and the Labour Force in Japan - Aspects of Trend in Labour Shortage", J.T. Yamaguchi "A Projection of the Labour Force in Malaya", G.%. Jones "Population and Labour Force Growth in Thailand", V.R.K. Tilak and Prom Panitchpakdi ~~ "The Consequence of Rapid Population Growth on the Labour Force of Iran", M. Setoudeh-Zand "Problems of Manpower in Taiwan: A Demographic and Economic View", H.T.Y. Chen "Efforts for Controlling Rates of Population Growth", A.M.N. El Shafei, H.M. Hussein and A.E. Sarhan "On the Relation of the Rural-Urban Continuum to the Occupational Composition in Taiwan, 1956", D.Y. Yuan "La Prévision des Besoins en Main d'oeuvre Dans les Pays en Voie de Developpement: Aspects Methodologiques", C. Vimont SESSION IV THE IMPLICATIONS OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS FOR EDUCATION POLICY "Speculations on Population Growth, Education and Economic Development in ECAFE Countries", H.V. !uhsam "A Demographic Approach to Educational Planning in Pekistan", M.R. Khan "Impact de la Croissance Démographique en Iran sur les Effectifs de la Population Scolaire Entre 1966 et 1986", F. Amine-Zadeh "Educational Implications of Population Growth in the Territory of Papua and New Guinea", T.M. Beck "Problems Arising out of the Post-War Rise in the Annual Birthrate as they have Affected Australia's Primary, Secondary and Tertiary Education Systems", Commonwealth Department of Education and Science, Australia "Evaluating the Australian Training of Asian Students", Daphne M. Keats Page 98-107 108-112 113-124 125-136 137-143 144-152 153-157 158-162 163-172 173-181 185-191 192-200 201-209 210-214 215-222 1051-1061 iv SESSION V(a) STUDY OF FERTILITY IN ECAFE COUNTRIES "Fertility in Kerala", V.C. Chidambaram "Fertility Level and Trends in Ceylon", C.H.S. Jayewardene and S. Selvaratnam "Fertility Among the Nationality Groups of Asia Adjacent to the ECAFE Region", D.P. Mazur "Fertility Differentials and Trends in Japan", K. Ueda "Analytically Graduated Fertility of Married Women in Australia with Respect to the Duration of Marriage", I. Lah "Levels and Trends of Fertility and Associated Factors in ECAFE Countries", M.V. Raman "A Method of Analysis for Contemporary Birth-Interval Data", D. Wolfers "Pertility in Developing Countries”, C.H.S. Jayewardene and Mrs. E.C. Fernando "Some Aspects of Differential Fertility in Bombay as Assessed from Registration Data", 1f.A. El-Badry "Fécondité Actuelle des Femmes Mariées dans Quatre Zones Rurales d'Iran", M. Amani "Fertility Trends in Greater Bombay", S.P. Jain ay "Fertility Petterns in New Guinea. An Appraisal of Present Knowledge", D.J. van de Kaa "Essai d'évaluation du Niveau de la Natalite et de la Fécondité en Iran", J-C. Chasteland "Fertility Levels and Differentials in Thailand", Thip Chalothorn "Differential Fertility in Taiwan", P.X.C. Liu "Age Pattern of Marriage and Rural-Urban Fertility Differentials | in Korea”, Y. Kim "Post-partum Amenorrhea in Indian Women", S.P. Jain "Impact of Higher Order Births on Fertility in ECAFE Countries", K.S. Gnanasekaran Page 225-236 237-244 245-255 256-265 266-276 348-354 355-362 363-370 371-377 378-356 389-395 SESSION V(b) FERTILITY CHANGE AND FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAMMES "Some Findings from Family Planning Data of the National Sample Survey", M. Majumdar "Pregnancy Rates in the Evaluation of Family Planning Programs", C.H.S. Jayewardene "Evaluation of a Family Planning Publicity Program in India", T.R. Balakrishnan and R.J.Matthai "The Progress of IUCD in India", S.N. Agarwala "The Impact of Family Planning on Fertility in a Rural Area of East Pakistan", J.E. Stoeckel and M.A. Choudhury "Sterilisation Operations in Kerala State, India", R.S. Kurup "Measurement of Impact of Family Planning Programme on Fertility in Pakistan", M.K.H. Khan "Population Policy and Family Planning in Iran", J. Behnam "Some Aspects of Fertility and Family Planning in Seoul City, Korea", Kap-Suk Koh and Kun-Yong Song "Evaluation of Family Planning Programme in India", D.V.R. Murty "Some Socio-Demographic Characteristics of Women Seeking Contraceptive Advice in one of the Southern Clinics of Tehran", N. Maroufi-Bozorgi "Attitudes on Family Planning in Turkey", EH. Cillov "Fertility Control in Rural Thailand: Some Results of a Demonstration Project in Potharam District", Visid Prachuabmoh and J.T. Fawcett "Demographic and Family Planning Research Needs for Less-Developed Areas", J.A. Cavanaugh - . SESSION VI MORTALITY TRENDS IN ECAFE REGION WITH PARTICULAR REFERENCE TO THE IMPLICATION OF RAPID MORTALITY DECLINES FOR MORTALITY PATTERNS "The Isolation of Various Components of the New Zealand Maori Mortality Decline, 1945-1961", D.I. Pool "The Significance of Differences in Patterns of Mortality for Projections of Population", K.G. Basavarajappa "Abridged Life Tables for Pakistan and Its Provinces, 1962-1964", F. Yusuf Page 399-405 406-412 413-423 424-430 431-439 440-448 449-455 456-461 462-467 468-475 476-482 483-491 492-500 501-506 509-520 521-532 533-541 "Recent Retardation of Mortality Decline in Japan", T. Soda "The Effect of Mortality on the Sex Ratio in Pakistan", A.R. Rukanuddin "Mortality Decline in a Sample Population in New Guinea", R.F.R. Scragg "Postwar Mortality Trends in Malaya", Saw Swee-Hock "Mortality Trends and Patterns in Hong Kong", S.H. Lee SESSION VII INTERNAL MIGRATION AND URBANISATION "Recent Trends of Internal Migration and Urbanization in Japan", S. Kono "Internal Migration in Indonesia", H.J. Heeren "Migration Streams in India", A. Bose "Internal Migration and Urbanization in India, 1961", A. Vitra "Estimation of Return i‘igration from Place-of-Birth and Duration- of-Residence Date", K.C. Zachariah "The Pattern of Internal Migration in Indie During 1951-61", J. Kumar "Application of Size-Class Specific Growthrates in Populetion Projection", S. Mitra "On the Internal Migration of Jamaica!'s Population", XK. Tekse "Quelques Caractéristiques Démographiques de l'urbanisation en Yougoslavie", Ivanka Ginic "The Social Demography of a New City", J.S. MacDonzld "A lethodological Note on Urbanization Indices with Applications", E.E. Arriaga "Migration to Urban Areas in Pakistan", I. Afzal "Urbanization and Public Housing in Singepore", S.H.K. Yeh "Recent Trends and Prospects of Internal Migration in Japan", T. Kuroda "La Mobilité Spatiale de la Population Urbaine au Canada", J. Legare and H. Charbonneau "Notas Sobre El Crecimiento Demografico Y La Urbanizacion de Panama", H. Araica A. "Migrants in the Metropolitan Areas of India", Vatsala Narain Page 542-550 551-561 562-572 273-578 1062-1075 581-570 591-596 557-606 607-614 615-622 675-683 684-695 696-707 708-714 715-721 722-728 729-736 "Effects of Migration on the Geographic Distribution of the Population of Israel", R. Bachi "Urbanization Process in Iran During 1956-1966", H.T. Khazaneh "Some New Measures of Aimed Spatial Mobility", W. Winkler SESSION VIII INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION "The Indian and Pakistani Immigration into the U.K.", P.M. Visaria "External Migration and the Age Structure of the Canadian Population, 1851-1961", L.O. Stone "The Chinese in Australia: Numbers and Distribution", A. Huck "Immigration Policies and Economic Development in South-Eastern and Eastern Asia", R.T. Appleyard SESSION IX TECHNIQUES OF ANALYSIS OF SPECIAL RELEVANCE TO ECAFE REGION "On Some Techniques of Demographic Analysis of Special Relevance to the Asian Countries", R.K. Som "Further Applications of Age Structure Models", A. Das Gupta "A Minimum Program for the Estimation of Basic Fertility Measures from Censuses of Population in Asian Countries with Inadequate Demographic Statistics", P. Demeny "The Advantages of the Electronic Computer for Population Research in Asia", Adriana C. Regudo and E.M. Murphy "Estimate of the Age Structure of Ghana's Population. An Application of the Stable Population Model", J. Holzer "Measurement of Fertility, Net Reproduction and Length of a Generation in India", G.B. Saxena "Birth Intervals: Artifact and Reality", Mindel C. Sheps, Jane A Menken, Jeanne Clare Ridley and Joan W. Lingner "The Multiple Decrement Life Table as an Approach to the Measurement of Use Effectiveness and Demographic Effectiveness of : Contraception", R.G. Potter "Factors Affecting Vital Rates and Their Estimation in a Limited Geographic Area of a Developing Country", Jamila Naeem Page 737-751 752-761 762-766 769-774 775-785 786-797 798-804 807-813 814-817 818-825 826-837 838-849 850-856 857-868 869-883 884-895 viii "Computerization of International Demographic Statistics in the Statistical Office of the United Nations", Nora P. Powell and G. Berggren "Selection of Model Life Tables and Stable Populations", M.L. Srivastava 904-911 "Estimation of Fecundability from a set of Marital A.S.F.R. and a Study of the Impact of a Family Planning Programme on the Natality of the Population - A Simulation Model", S. Mukerji 896-903 and K. Venkatacharya 912-922 "Estimation of Birth and Death Rates of a Quasi-Stable Population by the Use of Some Actuarial Functions", P.B. Gupta 923-928 "Estimation of Reproduction Rates for Asian Countries from Census Data", J.R.Rele 929-934 SESSION X GENERAL TOPICS "Deriving Current Estimates of the Population of Trinidad and Tobago by Administrative Areas and by Age", J. Harewood 937-948 "On Some Hungarian Family Statistical Data", L.L. Thirring 949-955 "Die Rechtsgesetze Als Instrument der Bevôlkerungspolitik", Ewa Kozlowska 956-962 "The Greatest Demographic Contrast of the World", J. Korcak 963-966 "A Review of Vital Statistics of Peking City Since 1912", M. Kimura 967-975 — "Marital Characteristics in Iran", A. Moezi 976-892 "Mortality Trends in Canada, 1926-1965", M.V. George 983-992 "Premarital Pregnancies in Denmark, 1950-1965", S. Goldstein 993-1000 "Trends in Fertility Differentials by Color and Socio-Economic Status in the United States", C.V. Kiser 1001-1007 "Increasing Population and Ceylon's Food Problems", S. Vamathevan 1008-1018 "The Recent Demographic Development of the ECLA Region", A. Klinger 1019-1027 "Recent Developments in Vital Statistics in India", R.B. Lal 1026-1034 "Factors of Labour llobility in an Advanced Technological Society", S. Borowski 1035-1046 "Population Changes and Economic Growth”, Eva Garzouzi 1047-1050 ix Page SESSION XI THE TRAINING AND EMPLOYMENT OF DEMOGRAPHERS IN ECAFE REGION "The Teaching of Demography at Undergraduate Level at lacquarie University", A.H. Pollard 1079-1082 "The Employment and Training in the ECAFE Region of Persons with Training in Demography or Allied Population Fields", K.G. Basavarajappa and J.C. Caldwell 1083-1099 INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR THE SCIENTIFIC STUDY OF POPULATION SYDNEY CONFERENCE 21st - 25th August 1967 SESSION I "REVIEW OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS IN ECAFE REGION" Moderator : M. Macura Note: This session is designed to present a review of the ECAFE Region by Mr. llacura, Director of the Population Division of the United Nations. A printed version of lr. Wacura's statement will subsequently be published in a book based on the edited version of the statements presented by lloderators to each working session of the Conference. Monday, 21st August 1967 11.15 a.m. to 1.00 p.m. . + . \ E. y y \ : . . ) t | \ ) ‘ ' = a y 4 , N N « . ) i ox INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR THE SCIENTIFIC STUDY OF POPULATION SYDNEY CONFERENCE 21st - 25th August 1967 SESSION II "DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION RE-EXAMINED" Moderator : J. Durand Moraz , 21st August, 1967 2.00 p.m. to 4.30 p.m. A o ? ) a > E" - AAA un AAA 7 TE . - . +. de AAA WANTED: A THEORY OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION Mercedes B. Concepciofi, Director Population Institute, University of the Philippines, and Edmund M. Murphy, Assistant Professor, University of Chicago, Research Associate, Population Institute, University of the Philippines 1. One of the most widely discussed generalizations in the social sciences has become known as the "theory of the demographic transition." It relates to the phenomena of decreasing mortality and fertility observed in all nations in the modern era which have moved from a traditional, agrarian system to an urban, industrialized society. Loosely stated, this generalization divides the process into three stages: first, there is a period of high fertility matched by high mortality in which population growth is low; second, mortality declines but fertility maintains its high level leading to rapid increases in population; and third, fertility begins to decline until it tends to equal the low level of mortality thus re-establishing a gradual rate of growth. This vague outline smooths out a remarkable number of variations; in fact it is one of the theory's charms that the only way to state it precisely is to state it loosely. 2. The theory continues to occupy the interest of social scientists, not because it is demography's only theory, as some skeptics put it, but because it is germane to one of the crucial issues of our time--the rapid population growth of the non-industrialized nations of the world. The problem of these nations is that mortality has declined just as predicted but fertility has yet to follow suit. The resulting high growth rates impose further burdens on already over-burdened economies rendering it necessary to generate high rates of economic growth merely to keep up with rapid population growth, 3. One of the overriding concerns of planners is to reduce excessive growth rates of population. Since migration is an unlikely solution and an increase in mortality is repugnant, only fertility decline is left as a possibility. Thus, it is tempting to turn to the theory of the demographic transition since it describes exactly the process desired--a fertility decline in some way related to a previous decline in mortality. 4, Since the theory comes billed as a theory it is especially promising. The French political scientist Raymond Aron has given a detailed operational definition of a theory. Among the tasks he demands of a theory are extracting the fundamental processes of a phenomenon and identifying the crucial variables. If a planner knows the fundamentals of how fertility declines, if he knows the crucial variables involved, surely he is on the way to accurate predictions regarding future declines and perhaps even toward manipulating these variables to hasten the day of that decline. 5. Unfortunately, the planner does not discover any of this know - ledge in the theory of the demographic transition as stated above. The theory is not a theory but a description of a series of historical events that have occurred with some regularity among those nations that have experienced what is loosely termed "economic development." It is in fact very close to what a physical scientist would call a law, "a sequence of natural events occurring with unvarying uniformity under the same conditions." 6. It matters little whether the demographic transition is termed a theory, a law, a doctrine, or an old wife's tale. But dubbing it the theory of the demographic transition tends to obscure the necessity for one of demography's most pressing tasks. Men cry peace, when there is no peace, the prophet Jeremiah complained. Demographers have pro- claimed a theory when there is no theory. There is only a crying need for a theory. 7. What is required is not a re-examination of the theory of demographic transition. What is needed is the creation of a theory of the demographic transition. What is wanted is a theory that will tell us what fundamental relationships were involved in the historical transitions, what the key variables were, how the transition came about in the past, and how it might be repeated in the future. 8. Historical evidence for the usual description of Western transitions is not nearly as convincing as we have been led to believe. Fertility movements in nineteenth century United States, France and Ireland (in some measure) seem to gainsay the transitions frame of reference. Although these cases stand out, they are by no means the only exceptions. 7 9. Attempts to verify the historical validity of the transitions doctrine have been based on the conduct of crude vital rates. All are aware that the growth rate depends upon birth and death rates. Many of the explanations accompanying the transitions approach are based on cohort analysis. Swedish cohort fertility declined at least a generation ahead of the decline in the period birth rates as discovered by Ryder. 1 In one sense, therefore, Swedish fertility began to decline well before the inception of her industrialization. 10. While the transitions thesis is clear in the direction of popu- lation trends, the periods covered and the extents realized are not as obvious. Northwest and Central Europe experienced economic modern- ization first and were exposed longest to interactions between demographic development and long-run economic change. On the other hand, Eastern and Southern Europe has had a briefer history of modern demographic movements. It is interesting to note that a transition occurred in these countries under very different cultural, social and economic conditions. The process deviated from the experience of Northwestern Europe in both time and manner. Unlike the latter, the declines in vital rates in South- eastern Europe happened only in this twentieth century. Once started, the transition was far swifter, Furthermore, the birth rates exhibited continued declines even during the postwar period. 11. A comman topic in the transitions literature concerns the lag in the declines of birth rates behind those of death rates. Examination of the vital registration records suggests that a modified view is more suitable. Lags of between 30 to 50 years were observed in Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway, Switzerland, and Sweden. In both England, Wales and Scotland, the lag was only about ten years. If Austria is included, available data suggest that the birth rate decreased while the death rate increased during the early nineteenth century. Finland exhibited a similar pattern. Data such as these form the basis of the transitions argument. 12. Citing again the need for a real theory of the demographic transition does not imply that contemporary demographers are shirking that task. Just the opposite is the case! There is probably more work being done today on this problem than at any period during the past. However, the energy and magnitude of this work is often obscured by the fact that the new theory-building often follows radically different lines from the research of the past. We quote from Bogue, one of the most In. B. Ryder, "Problems of Trend Determination during a Transition in Fertility," Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly, Vol. 34, No. 1 (January 1965). 8 active of these workers: "Traditional demography was ecological and anthropological in its approach; it emphasized that culture, level of living, educational attainment, occupation, modernization, and urbanization are major determinants of birth rates...In contrast the new field of family planning research and experimentation is more psychological and socio- logical in orientation. It places great emphasis upon attitudes, motives, group leadership, interpersonal influence, and other variables which are subject to more ready manipulation by experimentation, "2 13. This is a clear statement of his attempt to construct a new theory of fertility decline and it also suggests a new line of attack in place of the old. In fact, he proposes disposing of the old evidence as being unworkable or at best as leading to unusable results. The demographic transitions of history, to the extent that they have been examined, have been studied with an eye toward identifying the economic, social or political variables which underlay and perhaps precipitated the transition, But Bogue considers these variables "inflexible and incapable of experimental manipulation by indivi- dual demographers." 14. To be sure, Bogue's recent articles are resplendant with calls to action against the perils of unrestrained motherhood. Stripped of their heady rhetoric, they clearly state a theory concerning the most crucial aspect of the demographic transition--the change from high to low fertility. 15. What kind of theory does Bogue propose to replace the classical theory that in some way the good life, the economically developed life, the life of a tire-saleman in Akron, Ohio brings with it a bundle of virtues which include reasonable attitudes toward fertility? Bogue cites eight reasons for optimism in what is perhaps the most succinct statement of this new philosophy, and implicitly, the new theory. 3 2Donald J. Bogue, "Recent Developments in Family Planning that Promise Hope in Coping with the Population Crisis in Asia and Throughout the World," Paper presented during the Congress Symposium on Population Problems in the Pacific, Eleventh Pacific Science Congress, Tokyo, Japan, 23-26 August 1966, 3 Actually only seven are mentioned in the paper presented at the Eleventh Pacific Science Congress. Number five is missing from the copies distributed during the Symposium. 9 16. The theory is in essence the technology theory: all the world is anxious for lower fertility but does not know how to go about it. What is needed most is information and equipment. More particularly, it may be possible (with apologies to Bogue) to assimilate six of his seven points into the following theory: Privation and the large families that are often the cause of privation are sufficient motivating forces for the adoption of ferti- lity control even among the poorest, least literate, and most isolated groups. Tradition-based resistance to family planning is only minor and these groups are both willing and able to use the latest technological advances in family planning, the pill and the IUCD. Family planning inform- ation flows readily through private channels and mass communication programs can be very effective in initiating such flows. Informed indigenous peers and authority figures are sufficient to legitimate family planning al- though an official, legal and public support is necessary for large-scale family planning. 17. This new theory, or more correctly, this new hypothesis, has not gone unchallenged. For instance, Hauser has written: "... at the present time it is not known whether the direct approach being used will in fact turn out to be a short cut in inducing social change. It is not yet known whether a birth control communications program and a birth control clinic will, in fact, bring about a more rapid decline in the birth rate than improved and universal general education, or new industry that would increase productivity, or other types of innovations that may break the "cake of custom'' and produce social foment, "4 Although this is phrased in terms of the action programs themselves, it is also a comment on what we have presumed to call the new theory. In effect, Hauser is saying that the classical theory deserves continued investigation. 18. Whether right, wrong or irrelevant, this new hypothesis remains a significant attempt to build a new theory of fertility change, a theory relating to the second stage in the demographic transition. This hypothesis is clearly testable, and Bogue and many others are busily engaged in providing empirical support for it. {Philip M. Hauser, "Family Planning and Population Programs: A Book Review Article," Demography, Vol. 4, No. 1. 10 19. An attack upon the problem from yet another direction is exemplified by Freedman's attempts to find predictors of fertility decline. In 1965, Freedman ventured to predict an acceleration in the declines of fertility observed in Hongkong, Taiwan, Singapore and perhaps Korea to levels of 20-25 per 1000 within the next five years. He assumed that fertility rates ought to decline first and most rapidly in those countries where: a. significant social development has already occurred; b. mortality has been relatively low for some time; c. there is evidence that many people, wanting moderate- sized families, are beginning to try to limit family size; d. there are effective social networks, transcending local communities, through which family planning ideas and services and other modernizing influences can be disseminated; e. there are large-scale, effective organized efforts to disseminate family planning ideas and information; f. new contraceptives as the intra-uterine devices or contraceptive pills are effectively available. 5 20. Of course, he asserts that not all six pre-conditions are necessary for any fertility decline. What combination of these six will trigger off or hasten the decline is still very much an unknown. He admits that this is one area for discussion and research. However, Freedman claims that the first four conditions seem relevant to the past as well as to the present situation. The last two are unique to the developing countries and need careful testing. 21. Let us look at several of the Asian countries and elaborate a little on the assumptions put forth by Freedman. Certainly, Taiwan has shown a decrease in its birth-rate from 42 in 1948 to 35 in 1964. For Singapore, an almost parallel drop was observed since 1956. Hongkong's SRonald Freedman, "The Transition from High to Low Fertility: Challenge to Demographers,' Population Index, Vol. 31, No. 4 (October 1965). 11 birth rate fell from a level of 38 in 1958 to below 30 in 1964. Korea's vital statistics, along with those of other developing countries, are too deficient to furnish direct evidence of a decline. However, the assertion of a fertility diminution in Korea has been based on the large numbers of women adopting family limitation methods other than the traditional abortion. Still, while many of those women have resorted to IUCD's, the removal rate has also been high. 22. These examples of fertility declines in areas where action programs are underway are areas with special characteristics that preclude extension of the results to other areas in the region. Taiwan, for example, has had twenty-years previous exposure to the Ota ring, an earlier form of the IUCD. 23. It is true that for the above mentioned countries, significant social development has already occurred. Nevertheless, the indices of economic and social development presented in the accompanying table show marked variations in their effects on fertility in selected Asian countries. The data merely emphasize the difficulty in identifying factors responsible for variations in fertility levels. Most marked though are the population: agricultural land ratios. In all countries where fertility has been reported to have decreased, the corresponding ratios greatly exceed those of countries where fertility levels still remain high. 24. Comparing a number of significant measures for development and modernization in Taiwan and the Philippines, one could almost state that Philippine conditions are rather similar to Taiwan's. And yet the Philippines has so far not experienced any decline in fertility. The evidence seems to be to the contrary, i.e., a temporary rise in the level of fertility with health and nutritional improvements reducing foetal losses and subfecundity. 25. While the search for indicators is not in itself an attempt to formulate a theory of the transition, it is surely the first step, and Freedman himself has outlined the second step, a step that could lead to a true theory of fertility change. "What I am suggesting is that we plan boldly to study the whole array of pertinent social and demographic variables so that we can study their variations over time and link them into chains of influence for individuals, groups, regions and countries." ® Ibid. 12 26. Both Hauser and Freedman seem to be in agreement that in the search for an adequate theory of transition, the social psychological manipulative variables should supplement rather than replace the traditional social and economic variables. Others would support Bogue's view that there is no time to consider the long-run variables for the crisis may well be upon us in the short-run. However, what is significant in this contro- versy is not that scholars disagree upon the most efficient approach to a real theory of the demographic transition, but that so many able demographers agree that such a theory is needed, and that so many of them are already engaged in the necessary research. INDICES OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT, SELECTED ASIAN COUNTRIES Percent- Density Percent-| Percent-| age of Gross | Density of Percent- | age of age of male Per Repro- of popu- age literates | popu- labor caput duction popu- lation married, |among lation in | force national rate lation | per sq. females |females |localities|engaged income, (latest per sq. | km. of aged 15 years |lof 20, 000| in non- |US Dollars available km. agri- 15-19 and over | and over | agri- 1957-1959 data) 1960 cultural |1950-1960| (1950- [around [cultural land 1960) 1950 activities c. 1960! 1950-1960 Japan 1.0 252 1,395 1.3 97,5 46.1 74.0 200-299 Hongkong 2.4 2,891 21, 257 7.0 51.8 94.0 ... 200-299 Ceylon 2.5 151 581 23.7 52.7 11.4 45.6 100-199 Burma 2.6 30 131 34.8 37.2 10.0 34.0 Under 100 China (Taiwan) 2.7 295 1,394 11.4 57.6 10.0 45.8 Under 100 Singapore 2.8 2,813 ... 19.7 29.4 72.5 95.2 300-399 > Indonesia 2.8 62 591 ... 26.1 9.1 26,7 Under 100 Federation of Malaya 2.9 53 324 34.7 26.5 20.8 46.9 200-299 Korea, Republic of 3.1 250 1,375 2.5 66.7 18.6 24.3 100-199 Thailand 3.2 51 300 12.5 52.3 7,7 19.7 Under 100 Cambodia 3.3 29 213 ... 5.3 10.0 29.7 Under 100 North Borneo 3.4 6 ve 33.6 11.5 - 23.4 200-299 Sarawak 3.4 6 ‘ois 29.6 12.1 ... 26.0 200-299 Philippines 3.5 93 289 11.6 72.1 12.7 30.0 100-199 ! Data on agricultural land were taken from the FAO Bulletin. Source: Table 4.2, Selected Characteristics of Asian Countries, Population Bulletin of the United Nations, No. 7, 1963. New York: United Nations, 1965, p. 46. 14 Population Forecasts and Trends in Malaya! John C. Caldwell, Senior Fellow in Demography, Australian National University Population Projections 1. Ultimately all projections described in, this paper have rested on the assumption that the 1957 Censuses of Malaya” provided an accurate count of the population, and have depended on the evaluation of post-war trends in vital rates, especially such demographic change as occurred in the 1947-57 intercensal period. But, in that they attempted to assist governmental planning by positing various future courses of fertility, based on occurrences in the area that were not at that time detectable in the demographic record as well as on previous experience elsewhere, they were to some extent forecasts. 2. It has been a commonplace since the last war that actual population growth in developing countries has tended to outstrip that projected. Malaya, during the last decade, provides one of the first examples of growth that has demonstrably fallen short of all projections, and, as such, reveals demographic change unexpected in its timing if not in its type. 3. Table 1 shows that the extent to which Malayan population growth has fallen short of that projected has been masked by the effect of immigration, ignored by each projection partly because it appeared at the time of the 1957 Censuses that net migration might well approach zero. The two earlier sets of projections’ overestimated five-year natural increase by an eighth, while the United Nations projection benefited because it was able to take into account the birth rate trend around 1960 instead of 1957. Trends in vital rates 4. The overestimates can be understood when it is observed in Table 2 that the crude birth rate of Malaya, which stood in 1957 at 45.5, roughly where it has been through the 1950's and a little above the level just after the war, fell ten points in the next eight years. The fall in that period in West Malaysia was 9.5, a drop rivalled amongst whole countries by Taiwan, Philippines, Malta and Poland, while the decline of 12.8 points in Singapore was of the order of that experienced by two other city-states, Macau and Hong Kong. Singapore's birth rate had been declining since 1953, four years longer than was the case in West Malaysia, and had fallen over twelve years by 35 per cent, but this is probably to be expected of the metropolis of a larger area experiencing the onset of fertility decline. 5. But, while the birth rate fell by almost a quarter, the death rate declined by over a third. However, this reduction amounted to only four points, leaving a decline of 0.6 per cent in the rate of natural increase. Apparent and real fertility decline - the change in age structure 6. Some decline in crude birth rates after 1957 was expected and has been incorporated in all projections. This follows from changes in the age structure arising mainly from very high infant and child mortality during the occupation in the Second World War. The infant mortality rate in Singapore is believed to have more than doubled between 1939 and 1944, standing by the latter date at 339 per thousand live births for Malays, 296 for Indians and Pakistanis and 276 15 for Chinese. > The effect on the birth rate was small in 1957, for at that date females born in the period 1942-45, were still only 11-14 years old. However, by 1962 they were 16-19 years of age and by 1965 19-22 years. The impact on the Malay and Indo-Pakistani communities can be appreciated when it is realised that in each group one-sixth of the babies born in Malaya during 1957 were to mothers under 20 years of age and half to mothers under 25 years. The Chinese community was not so early affected for the comparable proportions amongst them were only 5 per cent and 30 per cent. Such changes have been reinforced by the high birth rates of the post-war years which relatively decreased the size of the adult population. 7. The nature of the projected changes in age structure can be observed in Table 3. Except for the very young, they undoubtedly closely approximate actual change. In each racial community the number of females, 15-49, increased between 1957 and 1962 more slowly than did the whole community, but, if attention is restricted to the most fertile age groups, the Chinese community is seen to be little affected while the position of the other two groups is shown to have changed even more radically than the overall analysis indicated. In the 1957- 62 period the proportion of all females formed by those of reproductive age fell in each community, but this was somewhat offset, in terms of crude birth rates, amongst the Indians,’ and slightly amongst the Chinese, by a fall in sex ratios. 8. In Table 4 projected crude birth rates for 1962 show that, even with constant fertility, such rates would have declined by almost one per cent a year for the period. In order to calculate the contribution of changed age structure to the decline in birth rates, the projected constant fertility rate has to be adjusted to make allowance for the smaller population acting as denominator of the rate than was projected. Thus, one-quarter of the fall in the crude birth rate cannot be attributed to a decline in fertility, the fraction reaching two-thirds amongst the Malays and two-fifths amongst the Indians. However, two notes of caution, each suggesting that the effect of changes in age structure might have been exaggerated, should be sounded. Analyses of the 1947 and 1957 Censuses, together with an examination of intercensal change, suggest that age misstatement may lead to apparent underenumeration of Malay females, 10-19 years of age8, anu hence, in projections, to understate likely fertility during the ensuing decade. Secondly, the same age groups of Indian females may have been small relative to 20-29 year olds because the community is still to a considerable extent an immigrant one, depending on immigration as well as aging to swell the most fertile age groups, as indeed may have again happened between 1957 and 1962 judging by the considerable volume of Indian immigration. Racial and areal contribution to fertility decline 9. Tables 5 and 6 show that fertility in Malaya in 1962 was almost 11 per cent lower, exhibiting a deficiency of 42% thousand births, than would have been the case had age-specific birth rates remained constant at the 1957 level. Thus, in the five-year period, the fertility of the whole population fell by approximately 2 per cent per annum, and that of the Malays, Chinese and Indians by around 2 of one per cent, 33 per cent and 2 per cent respectively. Here is to be found the major discrepancies between the projections and actual population growth, for no projection calculated for any racial group a fertility decline exceeding one per cent for this period9. 10. Although fertility fell by over a sixth in Singapore, compared with less than a tenth in West Malaysia, the predominant size of the latter meant that 16 it contributed almost three-quarters of the total short-fall in births. Three- quarters of the decline could be attributed to the Chinese four-ninths nf the population, but the Indian proportional decline was considerable, as was the Malay numerical decline in West Malaysia. All races were certainly affected, for the discrepant Malay figures for Singapore can be explained by the atypicalness of that small community, socially marked by its immigrant character and perhaps in 1962 underestimated by the projections, thus raising the apparent birth rate. 11. Tables 5 and 6 seem to suggest that fertility declines might be positively associated with high proportions of Chinese and urban population. An examination of 1957-1962 crude birth rate declines in West Malaysia by State do not reveal complete correlations, but the five States with above average falls, Negri Sembilan, Johore, Malacca, Perak and Selangor, also have substantial Chinese populations and are amongst the most urbanized. Similarly, the three East Coast States, Kelantan, Trengganu and Pahang, appeared to have small or non-existent declines, in keeping with low levels of urbanisation and proportions of Chinese. But there are problems: the declines can also be positively associated with almost any index of modernisation, including the number of family planning clinics; while the small movement on the East Coast may partly reflect improving birth registration. Contribution to fertility decline by age 12. Table 7 shows that fertility has fallen very substantially amongst females over 40 years of age in each racial community; much of this limitation must be intentional as declining widowhood would tend to yield the opposite result. In other age groups the universal nature of the Chinese declines strongly indicates the limitation of marital fertility, by about a fifth in each age group. Amongst the Malays, fertility has actually increased in 25-34 age group, and reductions below that age might well be largely a product of postponed female marriage. The Indians show both some general drop in fertility in all age groups, together with a pronounced drop amongst the young. The apparently discrepant figure for 20-24 year olds almost certainly bears witness to substantial immigration by females of this age, necessarily unrecorded by the projection. It is quite probable that fertility declines in the youngest age groups were even greater than recorded here due to the necessity for using ad justed 1958 and 1959 birth distributions for West Malaysia, distributions made at a time when declines had almost certainly already taken place. The postponement of marriage 13. The disproportionate decline in the age-specific birth rates of younger Malay and Indian women does raise the question of the effect of female marriage postponement, a question which existing marriage statistics do little to resolve. The proportion of married females under 25 years of age decreased considerably in each racial community between the 1947 and 1957 censuses, and an analysis of the availability of husbands revealed that the fall was likely to continue, and perhaps steepen amongst the Chinese and Indians after 1957. A continued decline in the incidence of polygamy and unstable marriage was likely to have a rather similar effect amongst Malays.10 14. Table 8 shows that more than the entire fall in Malay fertility could be explained by the reduction in births to women under 25 years and almost four- fifths of that of the Indians to women under 30 years. Almost certainly then the postponement of marriage has played a significant role. Just how significant is difficult to say, because younger, and on average more educated couples, might 17 also be more likely to attempt to limit family size. The position is very different amongst the Chinese, where, as noted above, all age groups contributed to the drop in the number of births. 15. Some evidence bearing on the point is available from marriage and family planning statistics. Since 1962 a substantial proportion of Singapore's marriages have been recorded in Reports of the Registrar-General as either "Muslim marriages" or "Marriages Registered Under the Women's Charter", although the total numbers suggest that only amongst the Malays are three-quarters or more of the marriages actually recorded. In the two years, 1962-1964, the median age of marriages registered during the year rose by about 3 months for Chinese brides, slightly fell amongst Indians and dropped about 9 months amongst the small and probably unrepresentative Malay community. The analyses of new patients by age carried out by the Selangor Family Planning Association does show that the incidence of family planning amongst Malays and Indians is relatively more ‘significant in the younger female age groups than it is amongst Chinese. In 1964-65 the proportions under 25 years and over 35 years of all patients at the Selangor clinics were 46 per cent and 7 per cent respectively for Indians and 33 per cent and 12 per cent for Malays, compared with 26 per cent and 20 per cent for Chinese, 11 a contrast that is only partly explained by differences in age at marriage and in the age structures of the three communities. The role of family planning 16. The reduction in marital fertility between 1957 and 1962 and also since the latter date has probably been almost entirely the result of conscious effort aimed at restricting the number of children within the family. But assessing the role of contraceptives or of family planning services in the process is difficult. Many women who consult clinics do not persist with family planning; thus, the number of revisits to Singapore clinics in 1961 did not quite equal the number of new patients recorded in the 1952-1960 period, 12 although the methods used during that time would normally require several purchases of fresh supplies each year, especially as the period witnessed a rise in the proportion of condoms and foam tablets distributed and a fall in the supply of diaphragms. 13 On the other hand, subsequent supplies could be obtained through commercial channels, which did apparently retail very considerable quantities of contraceptive materials. 17. In Singapore, if it is assumed that one-third of the new clinic patients of the 1956-1961 period successfully prevented .on average one birth that would have otherwise occurred, 88 per cent of the 1962 calculated birth deficit can be explained. The position in West Malaysia is very different, for a similar calculation does not offer an explanation for more than a sixth of the short-fall or more than a third of that to women over 25 years of age. It is possible that some West Malaysians used Singapore clinics and that, at a time when many areas of the country were not catered for by clinics, commercial sources were relatively more important than they were in Singapore. On the assumptions used above, 35-40 per cent of the birth deficit in the whole of Malaya could be explained by clinic attendance. By varying the somewhat severe assumptions the proportion could be made much higher, but then it would be difficult to explain vay the Singapore birth deficit was not much greater; the explanation may be that the ease with which services could be obtained in Singapore recruited many women with only weak motivation to restrict the size of their families. 18. Part of the mechanics of the Chinese fall in births, threc-quarters of the total deficit, is undoubtedly their higher rate of attendance at family planning 18 clinics, which has amounted, for instance, to over three-quarters of the patients of the Singapcre clinics and over two-thirds of those of the Selangor clinics. The racial differentials should not be exaggerated; levels of urbanization and of education certainly both play a role. By 1963 the incidence of Malay attendance at clinics in Singapore was in proportion to the numbers of women of fertile age about three-quarters of that of the Chinese and greater than Indian attendance. Selangor figures for 1963, presented in Table 9, show that the high attendance of Chinese is less striking when compared with the distribution of urban population, a distribution which is positively associated with the incidence of education and highly associated with the location of clinics, which were rarely found in centres with fewer than 5.000 inhabitants. Mortality forecast and trends 19. Malaya has reached the position of decreasing gains against mortality. Between 1947 and 1957 expectations of life at birth increased by about 14 years for Malays, just over 10 years for Indians and just under 10 years for Chinese, at rates that were almost treble in the case of the first race and about double for the other two pre-World War II experience. 15 It now appears that the 1957-62 gains were double the pre-war rate only for the Malays, while the Chinese fell to less than one-and-a-half times and the Indians to less than one-and-a-quarter times. However, the actual gains against mortality in most age groups were predictable from 1947-1957 experience where it was noted that the margirs between the experienced and the United Nations Model advances against mortality were smaller where the initial mortality levels wer lower. Thus the 1957-1962 mortality changes approximate closely to those found in the Caldwell projections. 20. Nevertheless, two points should be noted. With declining fertility, it might be expected that more care could be devoted to the children who were born, partly because the family would be smaller than otherwise and partly because the proportion of strongly desired children would rise. Thus it might be predicted that infant and child mortality would fall faster than hitherto anticipated. This has not been the case: amongst the Chinese and Indians the rate of fall has been about that predicted by the United Nations Model Life Tables, whilst among the Malays it has been one-and-a-half times that rate. But in all cases improvement in mortality has been less than that found in most other age groups. Nevertheless, as shown in Table 10, there have been fewer infant and child deaths than anticipated, because the high proportion of all deaths attributable to the very young means that a decline in births must result in a decline in deaths if age-specific death rates are constant or declining. Thus, this factor alone produced a crude death rate in 1962 0.3 points, or 3) per cent below what it would otherwise have been, and raised the rate of natûral increase by the same amount. The components of apparent and real demographic ch 21. A decline in the birth rate between 1957 and 1962 tended to raise the rate of natural increase by almost a fifth, as shown in Table 11. Approximately three-quarters of the decline was attributable to a fall in the fertility level. The actual decline in marital fertility was probably slightly greater than the earlier calculations might have given the impression, because it was probably counteracted to a certain extent by a decline in widowhood tending to produce a rise in fertility of about one per cent.16 If half of the fertility change attributable to females under 25 years of age can be explained by further postponement of marriage, then deliberate restriction of the number of births within marriage can probably explain almost two-thirds of the decline in the crude birth rate, four-fifths of the real fertility decline, and all and more 19 of the fall in the crude rate of natural increase, for, quantitatively, declining mortality was more significant than the postponement of marriage. Or this decline in the crude death rate about an eighth followed mechanically from the fertility fall. The implications of population change 22. The experience of Malaya demonstrates that a developing country which has experienced a steep mortality decline, given perhaps a moderately buoyant economy and reasonably large proportions of urbanized and of educated population, can move rapidly from a position of near stability in fertility to a decline of 2 per cent or more per annum.17 It also suggests that the very rapid mortality declines which have occurred in some countries with unprecedented rapidity may not continue at the same rate once expectations of life at birth of around 60 years have been attained unless sustained possibly by extensive economic development. There is no evidence that the restriction of family size is offset by an accompanying very rapid decline in infant mortality, but such mortality is already low and there are some problems in its measurement. 23. Fertility declines of the order experienced in Malaya may well depend on the provision of public or semi-public family planning facilities. The provision of family planning clinics in Malaya probably directly explained at least a third, and possibly as much as a half of the fertility decline, even though the coverage of West Malaysian clinics was still in 1962 very limited, and, by their example and because of publicity given to them, may indirectly explain increased use of other facilities provided by private doctors and pharmacists. There are at present regional and racial differentials in both fertility decline and the use of family planning clinics, but there is little to indicate that these are anything but aspects of the phenomena witnessed in the Western fertility decline, which was first most intense among the more educated and urbanized groups from whom diffusion of birth restriction to other groups occurred. To date some of the fertility decline in Malaya is attributable to the postponement of marriage, but it is doubtful if this has been primarily motivated by a decision to reduce family size, and in any case such postponement might well proceed at a slower rate in the next twenty years than in the last twenty. 24. Recent trend in the birth rate have many implications. The rough interpolations shown in Tr le 12 for dates subsequent to 1962 show continuing fertility decline amongst he Chinese and Indians until 1964, while the West valaysian figures show that a substantial drop in Malay births occurred in 1965. By 1964 the Chinese, but not the Indian, total fertility ratio had fallen below that of the Malays. Amcngst the Chinese and Indians substantial fertility differentials persisted between Singapore and West Malaysia, while no worthwhile conclusions can be drawn from the Singapore Malay figures. It is possible that by 1964 fertility decline amongst the Singapore Chinese was, at least temporarily, slowing down. 25. The slow decline in the number of births in Singapore from 1958 should have reduced the strain on expenditure on primary education, especially capital expenditure, from about 1964, while secondary education will be similarly affected by 1970. - In West Malaysia these two effects will become most pronounced from 1967 and 1973 respectively. In the peninsula as a whole, assuming flows of labour are not entirely halted between West Malaysia and Singapore, the strain on the employment market should ease after 1972. 26. However, neither the crude birth rate nor the number of births may continue to decline, even if total fertility ratios do so. By the very late 1960's 20 sufficient females born in the period of lowered infant and child mortality rates after World War II should be reaching the most fertile age groups to stem or in even halt the decline in the birth rate, and the farther side of this hump the number of potential mothers will not be reached before the late 1970's, after which there may well be a substantial slow down in the growth rate. The fall in births is unlikely by that time to be significantly counteracted by declining numbers of deaths; indeed the decline in Singapore halted after 1958 and appeared to be slowing down in West Malaysia after 1963. 10 11 12 13 14 References Malaya is now an historical term, but is used in this paper to describe those parts of the Malay Peninsula currently known as West Malaysia and Singapore. i.e. those of the Federation of Malaya and Singapore carried out on 17th June, 1957. At the time of writing this again appears to be a possibility. West Malaysia and Singapore projections are combined, as is most subsequent analysis of the two areas, not because they were based on identical premises, but because the flow of population, especially from the former to the latter, has made them a single demographic unit. Projection for Singapore alone has been almost impossible. This position may have changed recently. Singapore, 1957 Report of the Registrar-General, p.25. There are no equivalent figures for West Malaysia. The 1957-1962 period will be used for most analysis as being the only completed five-year period of the Official and Caldwell projections. Data for 1965 are as yet insufficiently complete to employ the first United Nations projection period. In the text "Indian" will usually be used, in keeping with Malayan usage as well as their preponderant number, to refer to the Indian and Pakistani community. J.C. Caldwell, The Population of Malaya (unpublished Ph.D. thesis held by The Australian National University), pp.458-462. The Official Singapore projections postulated no decline, as did the West Malaysian High projections. The latter projections postulated 3 per cent p.a. decline in Chinese fertility in the Medium projections and 1 per cent p.a. for Chinese and Indians in the Low projections. Caldwell assumed 3 per cent p.a. decline for Chinese and Indians in High and Medium projections. J.C. Caldwell, Fertility Decline and Female Chances of Marriage in Malaya, Population Studies, XVII, 1 July, 1963, pp.20-32; J.C. Caldwell, The Demographic Background, in T.H. Silcock and E.K. Fisk (ed.), The Political Economy of Independent Malaya: A case-study in develooment, pp.59-92; Caldwell, The Population of Malaya, op.cit., pp.269-313. Family Planning Association of Selangor, Annual Report, 1964-1965, Kuala Lumpur, 1966, Table C. Singapore Family Planning Association, 14th Annual Report, January 1963 to December 1963, Singapore, 1964, p.22. In 1961 there were 35,654 revisits compared with 36,187 first visits during 1952-1960. Ibid., pp. 26-27. Caldwell, The Population of Malaya, op.cit., p.211. These estimates differ from those based on uncorrected official statistics, largely because of corrections applied to the mortality of the 55+ age group in 1947. The following are the corrected expectations of life at birth with the corrected figures in brackets. 21 Malays Chinese Indians and Pakistanis males females males females males females 1947 38.4(38.6) 39.4(39.3) 50.3(51.9) 56.0(62.5) 50.1(54.3) 44.7(45.0) 1957 52.6(53.2) 53.3(53.9) 59.8(60.0) 66.2(67.8) 58.7(60.1) 56.9(56.2) 15 i.e. as incorporated in the United Nations Model Life Tables in United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Methods for Population Projections by Sex and Age, New York, 1956, the only tables of this kind available at the time of the original analysis. 16 For justification of this figure, see Caldwell, The Population of Malaya, op.cit., pp.293-301. 17 For other examinations of the fertility decline see, for Singapore, You Poh Seng, The Falling Birth Rate in Singapore, in Cadbury et.al.(ed.), Proceedings of the Seventh Conference of the International Planned Parenthood Federation, Singapore, Amsterdam etc., pp.69-77, and, for West Malaysia, R. Chander, Some Aspects of Demographic Statistics in West Malaysia, (mimeographed) Department of Statistics, Kuala Lumpur; for evidence that there had been some decline in fertility, especially marital fertility, in the Chinese and Indian communities between 1947 and 1957, see Caldwell, The Population of Malaya, op.cit., pp. 301-313. 18 For instance Chinese rates may appear to be low because some age of death statements are made according to Chinese age reckoning, which is not of course the case with birth registration. ANNEX Table 1: The Projection of Population and Population Change in Malaya, subsequent to 1957 Source of Date for Error in Error in projected population projection which projected change in five years from population populationb base population“ projected a No. Percent Actual Projected Percentage (000s) Change _ Change error 1 1 (a) Populations not corrected for migration (ocots) (000*s) Official 1962 +59 +0.6 +1,383 +1,442 +4.3 Caldwell 62 +45 +0.5 +1,383 +1,428 +3.3 United Nations 1965 77 +0.8 +1,360 +1,437 +5.7 (5) Populations corrected r migrationd Official 1962 +169 +1.9 +1,273 +1,442 +13.3 Caldwell 1962 +155 +1.7 +1,273 +1,428 +12.2 United Nations 1965 +107 +1.1 +1,330 +1,437 + 8.1 Notes: a Dates are mid-year; none of the projections diverge according to different hypotheses until after the date given. b Positive sign indicates projection exceeds "actual population". "Actual populations" are official estimates for West Malaysia and Singapore. c Official and Caldwell projections are based on mid-1957 populations pre-rated from 1957 Census, and United Nations projection on mid-1960 estimates. d Migration corrections include adjustments for migrants and for estimated natural increase attributable to them. /continued 22 Sources: Official projections: (i) H. Fell, Report No.14, 1957 Population Census of the Federation of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, 1960, pp.44-50. (ii) Population Projections of Singapore, Cmd.16 of 1961, Singapore Legislative Assembly, 28th April, 1961. Caldwell: J.C. Caldwell, The Population of Malaya (unpublished Ph.D. thesis held by The Australian National University). United Nations: Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Studies, No.41: World Population Prospects as assessed in 1963, New York, 1966. Table 2: The Movement of Vital Rates, Malaya,à 1957-1965 Date Crude birth rate Crude death rate Crude rate of natural increase W.M. S. Malaya W.M. S. Malaya .M 5. Malaya 1957 46.2 42.7 45.5 12.4 7.4 11.5 33.7 35.3 34.0 1958 43.2 41.3 42.9 11.0 7.0 10.2 32.3 34.3 32.6 1959 42.2 39.5 41.7 9.7 6.4 9.1 32.4 33.1 32.6 1960 40.9 37.8 40.3 9.5 6.2 8.9 31.4 31.6 31.5 1961 41.9 35.5 40.7 9.2 5.9 8.6 32.7 29.6 32.1 1962 40.3 34.0 39.2 9.3 5.9 8.7 31.0 28.2 30.5 1963 39.4. 33.5 38.3 9.0 5.7 8.3 30.5 27.8 30.0 1964 39.1 32.0 37.8 8.1 5.7 7.6 31.1 26.3 30.2 1965 36.7 29.9 35.4 7.9 5.5 7.5 28.8 24.4 27.9 Note: a Official data incorporating no corrections. Source: Federation of Malaya and State of Singapore, Reports of the Registrars- General, 1957-1964; West Malaysia, Vital Statistics, 1965; Repúblic of Singapore, Monthly Demographic Bulletins, 1965-1966. Table 3: Projected Changes in Age Structure Affecting Females of Reproductive Age, Malaya, 1957-19624 Race 1957-1962 percentage increase Percentage Sex ratio Percentage Total Females, Females in females, 15-49 population females, 15-49, population 15-49 Tour five- form of all (males per 100 form of total ear age females females) population groups with 1957 1962 1957 1962 1957 1962 highest age- specific birth rates? Malays 18.6 11.7 9.0 47.4 44.8 99.3 99.8 23.8 22.4 Chinese 18.5 13.3 19.5 43.5 41.4 106.6 105.6 21.0 20.1 Indians and 20.0 10.4 18.8 43.6 38.6 144.2 134.7 17.9 16.4 Pakistanis Notes: a Figures are from Official Projections, because no break down of the 1962 population by age and sex is available. b 15-34 for Malays and Indians and Pakistanis, and 20-39 for Chinese. - 23 Table 4: The Contribution of Changes in Age Structure to the Decline in Crude Birth Ratesá, Malaya, 1957-1962 ; Race 1957 1962 Decline? Projected Declineb Actual 1957- Contribution C.B.R. C.B.R. Points Per 1962 births Points Per 62 declineb of changed rate if Cent (fertilit Cent Points Per age structure fertility constant) as Cent to total ‘constant rate of actual decline of 1962 population birth rate Malays 48.1 44.9 -3.2 -6.7 45.0 -3.1 -6.4 -4.8 -10.0 -65% Chinese 43.0 42.9 -0.1 -0.2 43.3 +0.3 +0.7 -7.3 -17.0 + 4% Indians & 48.2 43.5 -4.7 -9.8 44.7 -3.5 -7.3 -8.5 -17.6 -41% Pakistanis All races® 45.5 43.5 -2.0 -4.4 43.9 -1.6 -3.5 -6.3 -13.8 -25% Notes: a Racial crude birth rates are calculated on the basis of race of mother (and so differ slightly from official rates based on stated race, which is usually that of the father) to achieve comparability with racial age-specific birth rates. Official projections have been used. b Declines and contributions to decline shown with negative sign; rises and contributions in a contrary direction to declines shown with positive sign. c Includes Other Races (approximately 2 per cent of total) as well as Malays, Chinese and Indians and Pakistanis. - - Table 5: Short-fall in 1962 Births calculated by applying 1957 age-specific birth rates? to projected 1962 female population, by Race and Area Race Short-fall in numbers b Short-fall as RErSENtauE of total short-fall Jog: Singapore Malaya Jos: Singapore Malaya Malaysia 7.5 50.0 52.5 55.0 57.5 Expectation of Life at Birth (both sexes) Source: United Nations Demographic Yearbook, 1964 . Table 3 .. >. > 4 . . . .. je - . . - . . . . . - . a - À .. . .... . ‘oe ; , = 72.5 75.0 TE Intrinsic Rate of Natural Increase Figure 2. -- Intrinsic Rate of Natural Increase at cach Mortality Level for Models 1 to 6 (degree of certainty varies from 95% in Model 1 to 50% in Model 6) 031 Model 1 7 i Model 2 - 2} A 1 Model 3 > \ J .01 Model 4 . * a Model 5 . -00}- 1 LE EE TSG TS Model 6 = Pt . ; e AFS 7 - 02 1 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 | L 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 — o 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Lo Ls 5 .55 % 65 70 7 50 és >” % 100 105 110 15 U.N. Mortality Level ‘ 20.0 22.5 25.0 27.5 30.0 32.5 35.0 37.5 40.0 42.5 45.0 L7.5 50.0 52.5 55.0 57.6 60.4 63.2 65.8 68.2 70.2 T1.7 73.0 73.5 Expectation of Life at Birth (both sexes) et 33 increase occurs. We also note a new phenomenon which did not show up in Model 1. This is a rise in natural increase when mortality declines from moderately low to low levels. In all cases the rise in natural increase occurs where mortality levels are lower than that level which allows most couples to stop having children when they have produced one son who has survived to age 1. Models 5 and 6 are probably clearly unrealistic. However, Models 3 and à are fair approximations of the demographic transition in France.® France is one of the few countries in the world where the rate of natural increases was greater in the period following World War II, its era of lowest mortality, than at any other time in its history. 12. Another very plausible possibility is that some couples want to be more certain than other couples that they will have at least one son who will survive to their old age. To take this into account we devised two additional models. In Model 1' it is presumed that 25 percent of all couples want to be 98 percent certain that at least one son will survive to the father's 65th birthday, 50 percent of all couples want to be 95 percent certain, and 25 percent of all couples want to be % percent certain. In Model L' we assume that 25 percent of all couples want to be 80 percent certain that at least one son will survive to the father's 65th birthday, 50 percent want to be 70 percent certain and 25 percent 60 percent certain. The mean degree of cer ainty desired by couples in Model l' is of course identical to that desired by couples in Model 1 and that desired in Model 4' to that in Model 4. Figure 3 presents the results with respect to the intrinsic rate of natural increase for Models 1 and 1' and Models 4 and L'. It can be seen the extremely high or extremely low values in Model 1 or Model L are moderated in Models 1' and l'. In particular Model 1' appears to approximate more closely than Model 1 the actual relation between mortality level and rate of natural increase among nations today. Further Possible Variations and Refinements 13. The models discussed so far have made many oversimplifying assumptions. We do not have the time here to review possible future refinements. We only wish to indieate that we do plan further work to ascertain the sensitivity of the model's results to various changes in its parameters. Implications 14. It has commonly been assumed that the recent decline in mortality is the cause of the worldwide population explosion. Model 1 gives support to this assumption since it projects a rise in the rate of natural increase as mortality declines from high to intermediate levels. However, Model 1 also predicts that as mortality drops from en intermediate to a low level, the rate of natural increase will decline precipitously. Today the mortality of most of the less developed nations Intrinsic Rate of Natural Increase Figure 3. -- Intrinsic Rete of Natural Increase st esch Mortality Level for Models 1 and 1' and Models U4 and 4' (comparison of results when all couples want an identical degree of certainty with situation where couple's desired degree of certainty varie around the same mean) : =.02 1 1 L 1 E 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 | 1 L 1 | L | o 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Lo 45 50 55 60 65 70 T5 60 85 o £5 106 105 110 5 “U.N. Mortality Level 20.0 22.5 25.0 27.5 30.0 32.5 35.0 37.5 40.0 42.5 45.0 47.5 50.0 52.5 55.0 57.6 60.4 63.2 65.8 73.0 73.9 Prpectation of Life at Rirth (both seres) í 68.2 70.2 T1.7 ve 35 is at an intermediate level and that of the developed nations at a low level. If the degree of certainty for filial survival stipulated by Model 1 is congruent with present-day realities in the less developed nations, we can expect little reduction in the rate of population increase until we reduce mortality still further. On the other hand, it may be possible to create changes in social structure so that parents will not feel compelled tc assure the survival of at least one son to their old age. 15. A further reduction in mortality in the less developed nations will be possible if more funds are spent on public health programs and the grave problems of malnutrition endemic there can be eliminated. Such further reduction in mortality may be one of the most important means of curbing the population explosion in these nations. Alternatively, the introduction into these nations of social security programs for the elderly may have a significant impact on the parents' felt need for certainty of surviving sons and hence cause substantial reduction in rates of population growth. Balakrishnan and Camp have argued that family planning will have little success in India unless a social security program is introduced. They advocate a system in which elderly couples with two or more surviving sons would receive no benefits, and couples with no sons would receive twice the amount received by those with one son. Such a system of benefits would greatly reduce the initial cost of the program, since according to one recent Indian survey 45 percent of couples 65 years old and over did have two or more sons and only 22 percent had none.l0 Hence either a reduction in mortality or the introduction of social security programs may cause a substantial decline in the rates of population growth in the less developed nations. 16. Despite the assumption of the availability of a perfect means of birth control; our models show that the rate of population growth will continue to be substantial as long as couples want to be highly certain of at least one son's survival to their old age and as long as the level of mortality is intermediate or high. Accordingly, although mass birth control campaigns may be of great value in reducing fertility. they will not of themselves achieve low rates of population growth. FOOTNOTES 1. Harald Frederiksen, "Determinants and Consequences of Mortality and Fertility Trends," Public Health Reports, Vol.81, No.8 (August 1966), pp. 715-728; Ronald Freedman, "The Transition from High to Low Fertility: Challenge to Demographers, " Population Index, Vol.31, No.4 (October 1965), p.119; Harvey Leibenstein, Economic Backwardness and Economic Growth (New York: John Wiley, 1957), pp. 250-252; Carl E. Taylor, "Health and Population," Foreign Affairs, Vol.43,. No.3 (April 1965), pp. 175-186. = : 10. 36 David M. Heer, "Economic Development and Fertility," Demography, Vol.3, No.2 (Fall, 1966). Shafick S. Hassan, "Influence of Child Mortality on Fertility," paper presented at annual meeting of the Population Association of America, New York, N.Y., April 1966. David M. Heer, "Birth Necessary to Assure Desired Survivorship of Sons under Differing Mortality Conditions," paper presented at annual meeting of the Population Association of America, April 30, 1966. For discussions of the biological limits to human fecundity see Joseph Eaton and Albert J. Mayer, "The Social Biology of very High Fertility among the Hutterites. The Demography of a unique Population, " Human Biology, Vol.25, No.3 (September 1953), pp.206-264 and Louis Henry, "Some Data.on Natural Fertility," Eugenics Quarterly, Vol.8, No.2 (June 1961), pp.81-91. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Methods for Population Projections by Sex and Age (New York, United Nations, 1956), pp.72-81. The sampling error in Model 1 is quite small. For the intrinsic rate of natural increase, the highest estimated standard error, that for U.N. Mortality Level 110, is .0011 and the lowest estimated standard error, that for U.N. Level 0, is .0002. For the net reproduction rate the highest standard error, that for U.N. Level 90, is .029L0 and the lowest, that for Level O, is .00908. ‘For the gross reproduction rate the highest estimated standard error (at Level 25) is .0413 and the lowest (at Level 105) is .0189. The standard errors for the samples of 5,000 at each mortality level were estimated by dividing the standard deviation for each set of 20 samples of size 250 by the square root of 20. This was done only after it had been noted that the standard deviations for sets of 20 samples of size 250 were on the average approximately equivalent to the standard devia- tions of sets of 20 samples of size 50 divided by the square root of five. J.C. Toutain, La Population de la France de 1700 a 1959 (Paris: Institut de Science Economique Appliquee, 1963), pp.31-36. T.R. Balakrishnan and Glen D. Camp, "Family Planning and Old-Age Security in India" (unpublished manuscript). 0. Andrew Collver, "The Family Cycle in India and the United States," American Sociological Review, Vol.28, No.l (February 1963), pp.86-96. 37 Theoretical considerations regarding differential transition. Dr. Rainer Mackensen, Centre for Social Research at Münster University, Head, Department for Population Studies, Dortmund, F. R. Germany. 1. "Demographic Transition", a term introduced by the Prince- ton Office of Population Research (1), has become the most frequently used label for contemporary population changes. Also, its content is being regarded the most prominent and general piece of population theory. This paper questions not so much the term itself and the justification of its meaning, but the application of both to a great variety of phenomena and their power as explanatory tools. 2. Transition means, in the understanding of the original authors, a change "from high to low rates" (2), i.e. crude birth and death rates, as observed in many populations during the last and present centuries, especially in Europe. These examples constituted also the realm of study in which the term has been used originally. There, to a certain extent, similar and comparable phenomena can be gathered under a single label. Soon, though, the term has been transposed to all kinds of population change exhibiting some features that resemble the picture shown in the historical examples, As the term has been coined in the context of a projective study on Europe, it seemed logical to apply it to the global situation in a projective sense also, After two decennaries, we regrett- ably know that it is not at all certain, that the global popu- lation change, and especially that of many individual nations, strives towards a final performance comparable to that of 19th century Furopean populations. 3. One of the prominent features of the concept is the peculiar picture of the curves of crude birth and death rates, 38 demonstrating a sequence of typical phases during the course of development. These phases have a special demo- graphic meaning, representing moderate increase or rapid growth of the total population, The phases of moderate in- crease open and terminate the course and embrace the phases of rapid - accelerated and retarded - growth, Some authors add phases of decline, either previous to the accelerated growth phase (as observed for colonial populations) (3) or after them (as expected for highly rationalized populations) (4), or a phase of stabiliged growth between the accelerated and retarded growth phases (5), Whatever these modifications the main body of the course of demographic transition means the change from a relatively stable situation to another via a period of rapid growth, 4, This feature of the graphic presentation of the curves of crude rates coincides indeed with the historical process in European populations. The phases of this transition have been described long before the graphic picture and its label became popular. After about thirty years of discussion on declining birth rates and possible reasons, it had become apparent that a change in demographic constitution had taken place, not just a decrease in the relative number of children per family (6), This had emerged from extensive and compre=- hensive compilation of European historical demographic data. A fundamental demographic change had been observed, parallel to those in other social spheres such as the political, meta- physical, technical, economical and others, and apparently in close causal relationship with all of these, some way or other, 5. The general change of social conditions in 19th century Europe has become understood under the concise term of the "industrial revolution"; regarding population, the "demo- graphic revolution" was learned to be its precise counterpart. Later, the political term was abandoned (or left to newspaper jargon), and replaced by the more adequate and neutral term "transition". But - revolution or transition - the meaning remained the same: a constitutional change from one "regime" (LANDRY; or: "Bevólkerungsweise", IPSEN) to another, each represented by a peculiar "scheme" (or "generative Struktur' LINDE (7), or "reproductive pattern") of values on demographic variables, and their correlation, This "scheme", graphically demonstrated so impressingly, was meant to be the necessary and typical "statistical indication" of the underlying change from the preindustrial into an industrial regime of population, resulting from the thorough social change that penetrated all 39 spheres of life. This being the case, it is quite clear that some graphical or statistical constellation can well be the indication of underlying social changes; but the same con- stellation can also represent quite different social condi- tions. In other words, it is possible to conclude from a given situation towards its statistical indication; but not vice versa, This is still more true if the statistical pic- ture reveals only partially the scheme as expected, in the case of demographic transitions: only its introductory phase. This alone cannot suffice to prove that a "demographic trans- ition" from one "regime" to another is being introduced, Still less is it possible to label this change with a term that stems from a situation where the demographic change is only one side of a peculiar constitutional change, interdependently revo- lutionalizing all aspects of life, 6. Indeed, more than one possibility has been observed and deduced for constitutional social changes. Also, it has been demonstrated that the 19th century European type is not the only possible pattern of population growth. COWGILL (8) distinguished four growth cycles, a "primitive" (I), a "modern" (II, the typical course of transition), a "future" (III) and one hypothetical pattern (IV), This last one is a type of transition also, but from a low towards a high level of birth and death rates. The purely formal consideration shows, that growth cycles may lead to higher, lower or even levels of rates, or "population turn-over", That is, we will have to distinguish between "transition" phenomena with increasing and decreasing levels of turn-oyer. If, though, the level of crude birth and death rates, or of turn-over, signalizes the constitutional population regime, than those growth cycles that terminate at the same level of turn-over, represent no transition phenomenon, but something more like a periodical disturbance, included in a longer period of similar consti- tutional characteristics, The scheme considers growth cycles only, it does not provide for cyclical decline. True, shrink- ing populations are exceptional phenomena. But, as mentioned in paragraph 3, writers on demographic transition tend to in- clude historical and prospective periods of decline into their concept, A more general theory of population change, that pro- vides the instruments for interpretation of factual develop- ments, will have to consider shrink as well as growth cycles. 7, The COWGILL theory inquires the theoretically possible ver- sions of deviations between the curves of birth and death rates. Basically, it uses five course types of these curves to provide for the suggested models of growth cycles, Each 40 curve may either mount or fall, it may do either and return to the previous level, or it may not change its level at all, Only the first two courses lead to transition, namely with increased or decreased turn-over, Let us consider all possible combinations of these basic courses of rate curves, The straight line course does not lend itself to many com- binations; we will have to consider it Sspavatelys That leaves four basic curve types, to he applied to birth and death rates, and 16 original combinations (see graph 1). There are two combinations that do not lead to a final con- vergence of rates, namely the cells 14 and 41, Examining the remaining 14 combinations, we find that they do not contain any of COWGILL's growth types. This proves that the pure course of curves in itself does not produce population cycles of the type we are mainly interested in. There has to be an- other element, not mentioned explicitly thus far. 8, Consider the course patterns 11 and 44: they use the curves applied in COWGILL's growth cycles II and IV. But as both rates behave similar at the same time, the trans- ition (which they actually exhibit) is realized without any considerable population increase or decrease, i.e, in absence of any "growth cycle" or "shrink cycle". Indeed, course 44 is a more adequate representation of French trans- ition history than COWGILL's cycle II, starting the change of rates at approximately the same time, and reaching a new lower level without much chance for population increase, A necessary element, then, that constitutes typical growth cycle transition phenomena is time lag between the change of both curve levels, Either birth or death rate courses may lag behind; we have duplicated the original 14 combinations for lagging birth rates to the right, for lagging death rates below the main scheme, Here now we find COWGILL's cycles IT (as 44) and IV (as 11), being variations of the original combinations with time lag. - The straight line even level curve can only be combined with courses 2 and 3 of the other rate, and no time lag applies; we have demonstrated these course types separately in the lower right quadrant of the graph, Courses 02 and 20 are COWGILL's cycles III and I. The total scheme gives us 46 possible combinations. 9; Further analysis reveals interesting qualities of the scheme. There are course types that constitute transitions, and others of disturbance character. There are growth cycles and shrink cycles and cycles of a character, that neither in- crease nor decrease of population is the final outcome. This 41 happens because both curves behave parallel and do not allow for considerable changes in growth rates; or be- cause phases of increase and decline alternate and com- pensate each other, To demonstrate this characteristic more clearly, we have duplicated the whole scheme, de- monstrating the courses of growth rates only correspond- ing with each combination of birth and death curve types (see graph 2). - Closer examination shows a multiplicity of phenomena, Transition types are located at the fringe cells of each quadrant; turn-over increase transition occurs in the 5 upper left fringe cells, turn-over de- crease in the lower right cells, This gives § by 3 by 2 or 30 transitional phenomena. The 4 by 4 or 16 central cells contain disturbance phenomena. Growth, shrink and stable cycles are distributed differently; each of the 3 main quadrants contains 4 stable and both 5 growth and shrink cycles, This gives us a total distribution of courses according to the following table. - There are 6 growth cycle types Population growth | stable | shrink aus 5 3 6 15 even 5 6 5 16 decrease 6 3 6 15 17 12 17 46 Table: Typology of Population Change Cycles 42 with decreased turn-over, only one of which is the typicnl "demographic transition" phenomenon (44), There are § growth cycle types with even turn-over, only two of which are considered by COWGILL. There are 12 stable cycles, three of which constitute a decrease in turn-over; but only one (34) has been considered hy MACKENROTH as "Bevtl- kerungswelTe" (9), 10. This is a purely theoretical consideration, true, Never- theless it may be useful to throw some light on the state of "demographic transition" theory. The consequences may be listed in form of theses: a. There are at least 30 possible ways of "demographic transition", not just one, and even 15 with de- creasing turn-over, b, There are at least 16 possible ways of "demographic disturbance" that do not lead towards a new level of turn-over or crude rates. c. There are at least 17 possible ways of diverging curves of birth and death rates, associated with po- pulation growth cycles, and only 5 of them lead to- wards a new lower level of turnover, d. Nothing can be said, from a simple observation of deverging birth and death rate curves, about what course the development will take finally - as there are still many possibilities that coincide with this observation as fas as the early phases of the develop- ment are concerned, and lead to entirely different final situations. e, "Transition", as a meaningful term of historical des=- cription, includes a constitutional change - in demo- graphic, and not only in demographic, but in total social structure, Applied to situations, where such constitutional change is lacking, it has no ex- plaining or predicting power, and may well be mis- leading. f. A demographic situation, characterized by population growth and declining mortality, does not necessarily have transitional character, If, for instance, the increasing life expectancy (or, more specifically: the decrease in childhood mortality) is a consequence of imported chemicals and skills, no change in social constitution whatsoever may be associated with the demographic phenomenon. 43 FOOTNOTES: (1) (4) (5) (6) C7) (8) (9) NOTESTEIN, Frank W, e.a.: The Future Population of Europe and the Soviet Union, Geneva: League of Nations (1944) p. 16; DAVIS, Kingsley: The World Demographic Transition, in: Annals, American Academy of Political and Social Sciences 273 (1945) 1-11; NOTESTEIN, Frank W.: Population - The Long View, in: T. We SCHULTZ ed,: Food for the World, Chicago: Uni- versity of Chicago Press (1945) 36-57, NOTESTEIN e.a., loc, cit. (1944) p, 16, MACKENROTH, Gerhard: Bevälkerungslehre - Theorie, Sozio- logie und Statistik der Bevôlkerung, berlin e,a.: Springer (1953) 334, BLACKER, C. P.: Stages in Population Growth, in: Eugenics Review N.S. 39 (1947) 88-102. KIRK, Dudley: The Balance of Births and Deaths, in: KIRK ed.: Europe's Population in the Interwar Years, Geneva: League of Nations (1946) 36-51, Prepared by the maturing development of formal demo- graphy during the years 1880-1930, and the systematic preparation of historical materials especially by Warren S, THOMPSON, Walter F, WILLCOX, Alexander M. CARR-SAUNDERS around 1930, a more comprehensive under- standing became possible, I find the first generalizing statements in Gunther IPSEN: Bevólkeruneslehre, in: Handwôrterbuch des Grenz- und Auslandsdeutschtums, Breslau: Hirt (1934) 425-463, and - at the same time - in: Adolphe LANDRY: La révolution démographique, Paris: Sirey (1934), Both authors draw their EE inter- pretation from current philosophies of history, IPSEN from idealistic tribalism, LANDRY from CANTILLON's pro- gressivism (op, LANDRY: Une théorie négligée, in: Révue d'économie politique 24 T1910) 314-323 + Bean + 747-757 + 773-785), Most of the subsequent authors seem to have drawn extensively from one or the other of these writings, LINDE, Hans: Die generative Form spezifischer Bevólke- rungen, in: Raum und Gesellschaft, Bremen-Horn: Dorn (1950) 25-39; LINDE, Hans: Generative Strukturen, in: Studium Generale 12 (1959) 343-350; cp. MACKENROTH, op. cit. (1953) 110 passim. COWGILL, Donald Olen: The Theory of Population Growth Cycles, in: Am. Journ, of Soclology 55 (1949) 163-170, reprinted in: SPENGLER and DUNCAN eds,: Population Theory and Policy, Glencoe: Free Press (1956) 125-134, MACKENROTH, loc. cit, (1953) 334, 44 ge Demographers should be careful to use diffe- rentiated and meaningful concepts, and restrain from suggestive complex terminology with essen- tial content regarding parts of the social system that have not been included in the empirical found- ations for application, Population theory has certainly a potential for further elaboration; but it will fail again and again when in- adequate use is made of concepts, transferring them into incomparable situations, A more differentiated and more intensive discussion of theoretical considerations may help to develop more flexible concepts, and to make demographers more sensitive regarding the suggestions they connect with the application of their terminology. 45 Graph 1: Hypothetical Demographic Course Patterns 46 Graph 2 Curves of Growth Rates Associated with Respective Course Patterns 47 DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION AND FERTILITY DECLINE: THE EUROPEAN CASE Etienne van de Walle and John Knodel Office of Population Research, Princeton University 1. The theory of the demographic transition is an interpretation of historical changes in vital rates from high to low mortality and fertility, and of the trends in population growth in the process. There are many versions of the theory, but they have at least two important characteristics in common. (a) They interpret population changes as a response to economic and social changes when a society develops from a mostly agrarian to a mostly industrial state, and as the result of the interaction among the demographic variables affected. (b) They accept the existence of a definite succession of stages characterized by mortality, fertility and population growth trends. They generally distinguish a predecline stage I, when both mortality and fertility are high; a stage II when mortality has started to decline under the influence of economic progress and social changes; a stage III, when fertility is similarly influenced and population growth is again moderate or insignificant. 2. Although thé model is based on the past history of vital trends in the West, at least in a broad and impressionistic way, and purports to describe the experience of developed nations during their industrial revolution, it has been shown that many national transitions did not con- form to the sequence of stages outlined in the theory of the transition. For instance, in some cases fertility appears to have declined before the statistics show a decisive mortality decline. In other cases - and the U.S. is an example - the growth rate in the post-transition stage probably exceeded the growth in stages II or III. The other part of the theory, i.e. the influence of economic and social factors on vital trends, is questioned with respect to the mortality decline which may have been in many instances more a direct result of innovations in medical technology or in public health than of broad economic and social development. It might be contended that in the past medical discoveries and innovations were a natural if not an integral part of the development of industrial technology, but this association, if it ever was a clear one, is no longer so, especially in recent declines of mortality in low income areas. However, it is still generally accepted today that the transition from high to low fertility occurs as a regult of urban industrial development and of the con- somitant social changes. It is paradoxical that the survival of the transition rt Ronald, "The Sociology of Human Fertility" in Current ponte . X/XI, No. 2,(1961-62) p. 56. 48 theory is probably due to the cross-sectional evidence coming from present day statistical material, more than to a car "11 analysis of time series relating -<- countries which went through their vital revolution. 3. Fertility differentials among nations today are related to the general level of economic development reached as measured by various indi- cators. Low fertility goes together with a high income per head, a high expectation of life, a high degree of industrialization and urbanization, of literacy, of employment of women, and sg on. The evidence on this point has been reviewed in a recent U.N. report. It shows that there is a wide gap between the groups of countries with high and low fertility on every indicator used. The report then concludes: "These findings are consistent with what can be called the "threshold" hypothesis as to the role of economic and social development in bringing about a transition from high to low fertility. According to this hypothesis, in a developing country where fertility is initially high, improving economic and social conditions are likely to have little if any effect on fertility until a certain economic and social level is reached; but once that level is achieved, fertility is likely to enter a decided decline and to continue downward until it is again stabilized on a much lower plane. 4. The present paper will attempt to test the threshold hypothesis, by examining the course of fertility in relationship with other social, economic and demographic indices, in two neighboring countries (namely France and Germany) which started their fertility declines at different times. Further- more, we shall attempt to identify the common characteristics in a number of European countries at the time when they began their fertility decline and when, inferentially, they should have reached a mixture of social and econ- omic characteristics making the decline possible. This is a departure from the direct ‘cross-sectional approach, and should be more appropriate to test the transition hypothesis. 5. When considering only present day statistics, it is possible to include among the possible correlates of differential fertility such crucial indices as income, participation of women in the labor force, education, and so on. However, the reconstitution of comparable series over time for several countries is in most cases impossible. To remain valid the analysis must be limited to a few simple indices of economic and social change. As a minimum, it would appear that more or less adequate indices can be found - and related to the fertility decline - for urbanization, industrialization, literacy, and infant mortality. 6. Infant mortality - or the number of deaths of children under one year per thousand live births - is considered here less as an index of develop- ment than as a factor likely to influence fertility directly. With low United Nations, Population Bulletin No. 7, 134 ff. (1963) 3 Ibid., p. 143. 49 mortality among children, the number of births needed to have any desired number of living children is smaller than with high mortality. The influence of urbanization and industrialization on fertility is an essential part of the theory of the demographic transition. It is supposed to bring about those types of social changes which reduce the importance of the family and of kinship ties for the achievement of valued goals. Finally, illiteracy is an index of education, although an imperfect one. A rather close relation- ship is usually found between educational status and other socio-economic characteristics. Also, education appears to play an important role in the abandoning of traditional customs and in the acquisition of a rational point of view favorable to lower fertility. 7. There are various types of indices of urbanization. Censuses often classify the population as either rural or urban, but the definitions vary. The most readily available index of the proportion rural for France and Germany is the proportion living in communities of 2,000 or less (see Table 1). How- ever, in making broader international comparisons, we accepted as rural those not living in what was legally defined as towns or, when more detailed infor- mation was available, those living in communities of less than 5,000 (see Table 2). In order to complete the description of urbanization, we have included also the proportion of the population living in towns of more than 20,000 and in cities of more than 100,000 inhabitants. 8. Industrialization can be measured by the proportion of the population not depending on agriculture, or as the percentage of the male labor force not working in agriculture; fortunately these two definitions do not in fact yield very different résults. 9. The indices of illiteracy deserve special comment since they are probably the least homogeneous of those given in this paper. Perhaps the most relevant measure of illiteracy would be the proportion illiterate at the average ages of fertility or marriage if we consider literacy as directly relevant for factors influencing fertility attitudes. The proportion of the spouses able to sign their names on the marriage register is fairly satisfying in this respect; so is the proportion of recruits able to read and write, although this information refers to males only and an average age younger than the age of marriage. Less satisfying is the proportion illiterate in the population (or above a certain age, such as six, ten, or 15 years). The definitions of literacy sometimes include those able to read and write, and sometimes those able to read only. In most cases, this distinction is of minor importance. The difference between the two definitions was considerable however in Finland. In 1910, one per cent of the population was not able to read, but 44 per cent were not able to read and write. The ability to read in this case may have meant simply the recognition of a few letters; as an index of education then, this would be very misleading. Or if, as suggested by D. Kirk, "the religious precept that everyone should know how to read the scriptures" has been responsible for high literacy , its spread may not have coincided with the diffusion of worldly values opposed to high fertility. 4 Kirk, Dudley, Europe's Population in the Interwar Years, League of Nations, 187 (1946). 50 10. Thus, the international comparability and level of refinement of our indices are not perfect. Nevertheless they appear sufficient to sketch rough profiles of various countries. Although the three indices of illiteracy, or of urbanization, are not equivalents, there is a very high correlation among them and they are sufficient to reveal the wide divergences in condi- tions among the countries considered. 11. We present in Table 1 sets of roughly equivalent indices for France and Germany. The table includes some demographic indices and a few indices bearing on socio-economic characteristics. The dates are those of censuses, and the information coming from the vital registration and other sources either refer directly to these years or represent averages centered on the census year. We present four standardized indices at successive dates: If for general fertility, Ig for legitimate fertility, Ip for illegitimate fer- tility, and In for the proportion married women at the fecund ages, according to the following formulae: B Br If = 1 wifi In = 7 wr; > ami BL E my Fy Tg = E miFi Im E z WiFz B, Br, and Br are respectively the average number of total, legitimate and illegitimate births, during a period (usually five years) centered on a census; wi is the total number of women in the age group i, mj is the number of married women in that group, and uj = wij - my, is the number of unmarried women as reported in the census on which the births are centered. Fj is the marital fertility of the Hutterites for age group i. The Hutterites, a religious scct in North America which does not practice. contraception, have the highest known marital fertility by age; their Ig is 1. 12. The values of I, presented for France before 1551 (the date of the first census containing an age and marital status distribution) are estimatcs based on a backward projection of the 1851 situation. The birth series was corrected for underreporting. The resulting Ig's are uncertain, and thercfore given between brackets. They suggest that marital fertility was coming down before 1831. In fact fertility was already quite low in some areas of France at that time. General fertility after 1851, as measured by If, was remarkably stable for 30 years, because the decline in marital fertility appeared to be balanced by an increase in the proportion married. We also present the series of Ih indices; they were extremely stable until World War I, and illegitimate fertility did not decline at the same time and pace as legitimate fertility. Undesired children outside of the family continued to be born at the same rate, but the desired number of children within the family was undergoing a change. Toale, Ansley J., Factors Associated with the Development of Low Fertility: An Historic Summary, United Nations, World Population Conference, No. 19%, Belgrade (1965). - 51 13. Marital fertility for Germany declines much later. There was no census for the whole of Germany before 1871, but the information for German states shows no evidence of continuous decline prior to 1876. There was no clear trend in the proportion married before the 1930's, so that general fertility also.dropped sharply. 14. Both countries in 1880 had roughly a similar degree of industriali- zation and urbanization. If anything, Germany had the smaller rural popula- tion at that late date, and had fewer persons employed in agriculture. In addition, France was lagging behind on illiteracy. On all these counts, however, France had come a long way since the beginning of the century. The higher infant mortality in Germany is the one factor which conforms to the theory. The French series , at least in its beginning however may have been subject to a rather large underregistration of infants having died in infancy. Furthermore, even if registration had been complete, it treated children dead before registration as stillbirths, in conformity with the Napoleonic code. 15. Table 2 attempts to compare a number of not too homogeneous statis- tics for some European countries at the time when fertility had started to decline. The absence or unreliability of statistics restricts the number of countries that can be included. Table 2 is exemplative rather than exhaustive. It gives a date of decline based on the series of I_'s at the time of successive censuses. We tried to determine the time when the Index of marital fertility had undergone a 10% continuous decline from its highest value, never to recover to its previous level. There are predecline fluctuations of some magnitude, but the above criterion is sufficient to identify the time when family limitation starts to be practiced on a wide scale. For instance in the case of Germany the highest predecline I, is .78, in 1875. A decline of 10% from this highest level was reached by 1890. In some cases, there were very slow declines starting as far back as the Ig has been computed, which may testify to the slow diffusion of contraception within somg social classes or within some regions. Spain appears to be a case in point. This also may be the result of slow social changes in those variables which account for international differentials in marital fertility of the order shown in Table 2, even before any decline had occurred. If the story of the fertility decline could be known in detail for Spain, one might have to accept ‘a much earlier date; but even so, the decline was so sluggish that a different type of phen- omenon seems to have been occurring than the large scale acceptance of family limitation, as witnessed later in other western nations. Taking the level of Ig for 1887 and 1900 (.64) as the predecline level, the 10% decline was reached in 1918 only. Taken over from J. Bourgeois-Pichat, "Evolution générale de la population frangaise depuis le XVIII siècle," Population, Vol. VI, 659-60 (1951). The figure given is an average of male and female infant mortality. Professor Massimo Livi-Bacci has found evidence of a slow decline in I,'s in Spain between the censuses of 1787 and 1797 and the modern censuses at the end of the XIXth century. (Personal communication). 52 16. Similar uncertainties exist with regard to the dates of decline in other countries although in most cases marital fertility dropped steeply and decisively enough, and it is easy to date the change of trend. Indices of socio-economic development are usually moving monotonically as a function of time, and an earlier date of decline would correspond to a lesser degree of urbanization, industrialization, and literacy, and to higher infant mortality. A particularly ambiguous case, however, is presented by Ireland. Although a 10% decline from the maximum level of the I, was reached around 1929, a high level of marital fertility has been maintained up to the present. Overall fertility in Ireland has been controlled primarily through late marriage and spinsterhood. 17. The countries in Table 2 are classified in order of their time of decline. The whole country is considered, although the decline in some prov- inces or regions may have started at a much earlier date. All indices in the table, except the highest recorded predecline level of I,, are given for the year indicated as the date when I,'s had come down by 10% and were still declining continuously. The indices in Table 2 reflect a large range of situ- ations. The range in the proportion married is between an Im of .35 (in Ireland) and of .74 (in Bulgaria). The decline occurs in countries with what Hajnal has called the "European pattern of marriage" and in others where every woman marries as early as possible. Similarly the range in infant mortality - between over 200 per thousand and under 100 per thousand - is not inconsider- able. 18. Some countries experienced the onset of fertility decline with a high proportion of illiterates (France, Finland, Bulgaria), and others only long after illiteracy had practically disappeared (Sweden, Germany, Switzerland). Similarly, predominantly rural populations (France, Sweden, Finland or Bulgaria) managed to control their fertility to the same extent as intensively urbanized ones (cfr. Scotland, England and Wales). A similar remark would apply to the proportion of the population in agriculture. Conclusion 19. We set out to test the hypothesis that European countries had reached a certain threshold in the mixture of social, economic, and demographic charac- teristics by the time they experienced the onset of a secular decline in mari- tal fertility. The data presented here are admittedly too crude and too incom- plete to allow us to conclusively refute this hypothesis. Perhaps the processes at work were far too subtle to be detected by such rough indices. Indeed, the results suggest strongly that a simple statement of the threshold hypothesis and of the demographic transition is incapable of describing the actual experi- ence of Europe, unless the threshold in terms of the variable examined is so low that many countries in the world today would have already crossed it or are on the verge of crossing it. Even then the question would arise as to why there was such a delay in the fertility decline in some countries after they crossed the threshold and not in others. 53 20. Surely it would be folly to deny that social and economic factors exercised an important influence on vital rates and especially on the decline of fertility. Attitudes and norms governing family size preferences were certainly responsive to urban-industrial development and the concomitant social changes. Perhaps the processes at work involved changes in all sectors of life and the threshold needed to initiate a fertility decline couched in terms of variables other than those for which adequate indices are readily available. Rates of changes in socio-economic characteristics might have been more important than actual levels reached. In this case the threshold would need to be measured in percentage difference from the base level. 21. Nevertheless it is apparent from the ubiquity of the fertility decline in Europe and the diversity of conditions under which it occurred that it is a far more complex phenomenon than conventional statements of transition theory have held it to be. If transition theory with its implicit threshold hypothesis is to be salvaged at all as an explanatory and descrip- tive framework it must be accepted that very different packages of social and economic factors were responsible for the various fertility declines in European countries. 22. In conclusion we might add the following comments. If conven- tional statements of transition theory are inappropriate for the European experience, on which they profess to be based, they are even less likely to be useful in predicting or explaining future transitions. The new pack- ages of factors used to predict fertility reduction in developing countries will include two important elements generally absent in the past: the inter- vention of governmental policy with the consciousness of the urgency of curbing the now spectacular growth rates and the new levels of communication possible through modern mass media. Acknowledgements and Sources: This paper drawn on the research made for a previous unpublished manu- script by J. Knodel and Tangoantiang, An Empirical Study of Certain Aspects of the Demographic Transition in Relation to European Countries, Office of Population Research, Princeton University (1962). Statistical information has in most cases been derived from censuses, vital registration, yearbooks and other official sources of the time. The following secondary compilations have also been used: Colin Clark, The Conditions of Economic Progress, 2nd Ed., London (1951); UNESCO, World Illiteracy at Mid-Century, Paris (1957); E. Levasseur, La population francaise, Paris (1889); Austria, Stat. Zentral- commission, Statistische Monatschrift, 40 NF.19 (1914); U.S. Bureau of , Education, Bulletin 4 (1929). We thank Professors A. Jj. Coale, M. Livi-Bacci, and P. Demeny for permission to use several indices computed by them. 54 Table 1. Demographic and Socio-Economic Indices for France and Germany (Borders of the Time) A. France Mari- Over- Illegit- Index Infant 7 Re- % Popu- % % in % in tal all imate of Mor- cruits lation Rural Towns Cities Fertil- Fertil- Fertil- Marr- tality Illiter- Depend- of of ity ity ity iage ate ent on 20,000+ 100,000+ (Tg) (Ig) (I) Cm) b) Agricul. 1801 6.7 2.8 1821 7.2 3.2 1831 (.637 180 50.3 7.3 3.2 1836 (.611 172 45.4 8.1 3.7 1841 (.579 161 41.7 3.9 1846 (.531 158 37.2 75.6 10.1 4.6 12514 L511 272 .039 .502 156 35.0 56.9 74.5 10.5 4.9 .503 1856 481 .267 .041 .513 176 32.5 52.9 72.7 12.5 6.1 1861 .490 .279 .044 .525 169 29.0 53.2 71.1 13.9 7.8 13664 .480 277 .045 534 175 22.5 51.5, 69.5 14.9 8.2 51.0 1872 170 . 52.7 68.9 15.8 9.1 1876 455 274 .044 560 164 53.0 67.6 1581 .460 .267 .044 .535 170 50.0 65.2 17.0 . 10.4 1566 164 47.6 64.1 18.1 10.9 1391 414 L241 .044 .533 172 46.0. 62.7 19.3 11.7 1596 .395 ..233 .044 .537 159 45.7. 61.0 22.6 12.7 1901 .372 .230 .047 .565 146 43.2: 59.0 24.0 13.7 1906 , 136 43.0 57.9 1911 .314 .205 .045 .596 123 55.8 26.3 14.6 1921 321 .189 .039 .534 108 38.95 53.6 1926 89 35.8% 51.0 29.3 15.5 1931 .271 .181 .037 .613 77 33.2 48.8 130.8 15.7 Germany 1867 .760% 3938 oso 460% 239° 1871 .776 .405 .073 .472 246 63.9 1875 .783 .424 .073 .495 236 2.4 61.0 1880 .735 .404 .072 .501 225 1.7 42.55 58.6 1885 .726 .395 .073 .494 228 1.1 56.3 18.4 9.5 1890 .706 .386 .070 .497 221 0.5 53.0 20.7 11.4 1895 . 215 0.2 35.8 49.8 24.6 13.9 1900 .659 .370 .066 .513 208 0.1 h 45.7 28.8 16.2 1905 193 28.6 42.6 131.9 19.0 1910 .542 .312 .059 .524 170 40.0 34.7 21.3 1925 .334 .185 .041 .490 109 23.0 36.0 40.4 26.3 1933 .272 .162 .035 .534 75 21.0 33.2 43.3 130.4 a) Does not include Var, b)from Bourgeois-Pichat, op. cit., p. 659-660, c) % male labor force engaged in agriculture, d)excluding several small states which together represent less than 5% of the total German population, e) 1872/73, f) 1882, g) 1907. France Belgium Switzerland Germany England and Wales Sweden Scotland Netherlands Denmark Norway Austria Finland Italy Bulgaria Spain Ireland Date of Decline by 10% (Before 1830) 1882 1885 1890 1892 1892 1894 1897 1900 1904 1908 1910 1911 1912 1918 1929 Table 2. Marital Index fertil- of ity Propor- before tion decline Married (14) (In) (>.64) .50° .82 44 73 44 78 .50 .68 .48 ca.74 .42 75 .42 .85 .45 68 .47 .75 .42 .68 .51 .70 .46 .68 .54 ca.70 ca.74 .64 .51 .71 .35 Over- Infant all Mor- Fertíl- tality ity (per thous- (1g) and) 27% ca.185P>° .35 161 .29 165 .39 221 .31 149 .31 102 .31 124 .35 1535 .32 131 .30 76 .36 205 .31 114 .36 146 ca.45 159 .30 158 «23° 69 % of Male Labor Force in Agri- culture >70 66 46 70 66 48 % % in Rural Towns d) 83° <7 56 22 78 9 68 21 28 57 8l 11 27 49 26 42 61 23 72 18 - 19 85 9 38 28 82 7 45 26 73 20 % in Cities 12 14 Demographic and Socio-Economic Indices at Time of Fertility Decline Selected Countries of Europe (Borders of the Time) % Illit- erate in 20,000+ 100,000+ Census % Illit- erate among Recruits >53 ' OGI O! NU % Illit- erate at Marriage 8) Wer: 29 49 - No data available, a) in 1851, b) average of figures given for 1815-27 by Bourgeois-Pichat, op. cit., c) children dead after registration only, d) in communities of less than 5,000, or legal definition, e) in 1836, f) both sexes, 10+ or 15+, g) able to sign their name, both sexes, h) essentially no illiteracy by 1900, See UNESCO, op. cit., p. 173. GS 56 Les problémes de la révolution démographique Zäenëk Pavlik, Universitf de Prague 1. Les historiens considèrent souvent comme les points les plus importants dans 1 évolution de la société deux tournants: la révolution agricole dans la période néolithique et la révolution industrielle dans notre temps (G. Child, C. Cipolla). Ils ont certainement raison au point de vue social et économique. Mais au point de vue de l'existence même de l'humanité je considère comme plus importante encore la révolution démographique . Pouvons nous nous imaginer l'evolution, ou chaque progrès économique est tout de suit changer en accroissement de la population? Cette conception est la contribution de la théorie démographique pour la connaissance humaine. Il est probable, quand A. Landry a utilisé la premiere fois ce terme, qu'il était inspiré par celui de la révolution industrielle, déjà connu; et ainsi le processus plus profond et plus large que la revolution industrieile est nommé plus tard (a ailleurs pas l'exception dans la science). 2. La conception même de A. Landry (1934) exige l'élargissement. D'après lui on peut distinguer trois manières de réproduction démographique: primitive, ge les moyens de subsistance limitent le nombre de la population, la manière moyenne, quand | la population veut maintenir le niveau de vie et restreint la nuptialité et la troisième manière, qui commence par la Fevoivtion démographique et dans laquelle deja l'augmentation de la production n'influence pas directement l'accroissement de la population. A mon avis, entre la manière primitive et moyenne de Landry il n'y a pas de différence significative et on ne peut pas vraiment les séparer. 3. Il faut réfléchir aussi sur le terme primitif. Mème chez les populations les plus anciennes et actuellement les plus attardées dans leur évolution on ne peut pas parler d'une vraie primitivité. Ces populations ne sont pas possédées seulement & une sponatanéité, des superstutions et des magies sans le corps rationol, meme dans sa reproduction. L' opinion contraire est très présomptueuse, beaucoup influencée par les rationalistes du 18 ême siècle, comme a bien montré la discussion - parfois déjà oubliée - sur la mentalite primitive. Il est trés probable, que le sentiment inconscient de " l' optimum démographique " a joué un certain rSle déjà dans le comportement de ces populations. 4. En ce qui concerne la mani€re moyenne de Landry, avant la révolution démographique on ne peut pas parler du niveau de vie, parce que toute la population n'est pas assurée d'obtenir de façon durable des produits aliment- aires. Devant la menace de la faime - bienque ça se montre paradoxal - aucune 51 sociéte dont le développement est basé seulement sur 1 agriculture, n'est pas assurée. Il me semble, que 1 agriculture a ses limites de développement; elle couvre les besoins principaux de l'homme - la nourriture - mais cependant l'échelle des besoins qu'elle couvee est très restreinte. Elle donne seulement avec extension limitée la possibilité de développer ces besoins en utilisant les produits agricoles autrement qu'à l'alimentation mais au prix très lourd, qu'est la limitation du nombre de la population. La différence insuffisante des besoins matériels ne mène pas à la différen- ciation psychique plus développée et elle ne donne pas aussi l'impulsion au développement de la personalite et pour le progres technique suffisement rapide de n'être pas suprimer par la population croissante. 5. Cela me semble valable notamment pour les régions favorables a 1' agriculture (par exemple en Asie). Ce n'est sans doute pas par accident que l‘industrialisation commence dans les régions ou l'agriculture n'est pas très riche, mais ou la population est assez dense (C. Clark). 6. J'avoue, que ces hypothèses peuvent nous égarer, mais ces questions restent toujours intéressantes pour l'esprit humain. Dans cette connextion je voudrais mentionner la manière de production asiatique - le terme est introduit par K. ilarx. Il souligne des conditions géographiques et le facteur de la population beaucoup plus que par la suite dans les travaux marxistes. Il aide a éclaircir le cycle en rond de l'évolution de l'agriculture asiatique et les différences entre l'Ouest et l'Orient. Il faut aussi voir le rôle cu gouvernement dans les conditions différentes de la production. 7. La revolution démographique est assez souvent caracterisée seulement par la diminution de la natalité, de la mortalité et de plus que redoublement de l'espérance de vie. Cette caractéristique est tres simplifiée et si nous ne connaissons plus de ce processus complex, elle nous n' aide pas beaucoup. Comme chez chaque processus stochastique (fondé sur la probabilitë), si nous n'avons pas la possibilité voir des relations plus profondes et les corrélations entre les phenomènes qui les constutient, nous ne les pouvons pas utiliser pour des prévisions. 8. Ce n‘est pas le cas de la révolution démographique; nous voyons bien quelques traits de cette révolution déjà dans l'antiquité, mais elle se réalise pleinement au moment, quand les biens matériels s'accroissent plus vite que "la production" de la population. Et pour cela il est nécessaire, que le développement de l'industrie qui utilise d'autres matières premières que des vivres, augmente presque sans limites "la nature" contre les hommes (A. Sauvy). Mais on ne peut pas dire, que la révolution démographique est le produit de la révolution industrielle; cette dernière seulement assure son achevement. 9. Tous cela est un processus tres complexe, vaste et varie; comme deuxième condition il faut voir la libération de l'individu proclamée var la Grande révolution française et succesivement comblée après elle. La famille commence activement à améliorer sa situation et celle de ses enfants. Et nous voyons, que les conséquences de ces réflexions et l'amelioration de la vie 58 * “ Pa materielle ménent au changement des taux démographiques, aux manifestations évidentes de ce processus. Mais il faut dire, que la révolution démo- graphique joue dans l'évolution humaine un role rélativement indépendant et plus ou moins actif d'aprês les circonstances. 10. Les conditions sine qua non nommées plus haut - l' écartement de la mênace de la faim pour la partie essentielle de la population rend possible de dévier l'interèt sur d'autres domaines que sur les produits alimentaires et ouvre la possibilité au développement ultérieur. 11. Les differences entre les pays, ou la révolution démographique est déjà achevée, est en cours ou n'est pas encore commencée, sont très grandes. On peut mentioner seulement la France - nous ne pouvons pas la désigner comme un pays industriel au commencement de la révolution démographique - et en comparaison 1' Angleterre, industrialisée beaucoup plus antérieurement, mais où la révolution démographique commence ultérieurement. On peut nommer la Suisse et la Belgique, les pays scandinaves et les pays de l'Europe de l‘ist. Et quelles grandes modifications on voit maintenant chez les pays en développement. 12. En abstrait nous pouvons voir trois types de la révolution demogra- phique - les deux premières sont typiques pour les pays européens et quelques autres, le troisième pour les pays en développement (voyez le schéme) . Le type japonais-mexique est caractérisé par une grande "explosion demographique" parfois considerée comme dangereuse, mais en meme temps exige des mesures extraordinaires. 13. Nous ne pouvons pas dire, que l'évolution de la population au Japon est wi modèle qui sera facilement imité par les autres pays de l'Asie, mais jusqu'ici nous n'avons pas vu d'autre évolution, lorsque les conditions nécessaires sont pour la révolution démographique remplies. On peut déja discerner aux Philipines, à Ceylon et à Formose les premiers traits de telle évolution démographique. 5 -s TROIS TYPES DE LA REVOLUTION DEMOGRAPHIQUE NetM "Pe © SS Yk N Yj M type français Yj Yi @ ant o Yk 7 N 7 Y; d M type anglais Yi i O N Yk I Yj I Y; f type japonais - mexique 1-ére période 2-éme période 1 1 1 Xi Xj Xk temps 61 INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR THE SCIENTIFIC STUDY OF POPULATION SYDNEY CONFERENCE 21st - 25th August 1967 SESSION III "THE IMPLICATIONS OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS IN ECAFE REGION FOR THE GROWTH OF THE WORKFORCE, INVESTMENT AND EMPLOYMENT" Moderator : You Poh Seng Tuesday, 22nd August, 1967 - 9.00 a.m. to 10.45 a.m. 62 63 POPULATION, LABOUR FORCE AND ECONOMIC DEV:ALOPMENT IN JAPAN Yoichi Okazaki Research Staff Institute of Population Problems Ministry of Health and ilelfare 1. The iieiji Restoration in 1863 was the starting point of the modernization of Japai. During a century from that time, a remarkable progress in economic and social conditions has been realized. As the result the Javan's economy today is highly developed and still active- ly developing. . However the process of development for a century hos by no means been monotonous, but there were several important events vhich marked phases of the development. 2. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the process of economic development by phases, taking focus on aspects of population and labour force. Of course the point is in analysis of the Japan's experience, but several facts which are instructive for the developing countries in wCAFD region would be pointed out. 3. Until recently the situation that labour force is surnrlus has existed in Javan. Under this circumstance, the econony has been growing by utilizing surplus and cheap labour. At the beginning modernization, proportion of agricultural population to total population was large and population density per cultivated land was high. Those conditions are common in Japan and the countries in ECAFL region. 4. The national target which the new Meiji government sottled at the Restoration was realization of the modern economic growth. However time of twenty years was necessary for preparation of it, it was from 1837 that the modern economic growth practically started. During those years of prevaration the new government endeavoured to abolich the old feudalisti. systems and to establish the modern systems for them. This undertcking imposed a heavy economic burden on the finance of the covern- ment and had a great influence to the national economy. For example, exvenditures for the Southwestern Rebellion in 1377 and the ceritelized pension bond which was given to feudalistic ruling class causcd severe inflation. Thus the twenty years after the Restoration experienced an economic disorder, especially in the second decade. Governmental investment which was necessary for the development had to be cut down, because the real purchasing power of governmental exmenditure reduced by inflation. 5. The disorder was finally controlled by the decisive deflation nolicy in 1000 by ir. Hatsukata, the Minister of Finance. By thi- the June 64 economy obtained the basis on which the modern sustained growth was realised. Because there was an economic and social instability, there was not a remarkable progress in national life from the Restoration until about 1887. This is reflected in the trend of birth rates. Both birth rates and death rates were declining from 1870 to 1890 ("Table 1"). That the birth rates were declining is considered to be a symptom of con- fusion of national life. 6. Because both birth rates and death rates were declining, the natural increase rates were so low as 0.5 percent per annum. In general, the rate of increase of population at the beginning of the so-called "demographic transition" was not high in the West-European countries. But it was especially low in case of Japan. At present most countries in ¿CAFE region are suffering from an abnormally high rate of increase of population, before the sufficient sustained economic growth started. It can be said that there is a great difference of initial condition between the case of Japan and European countries and the case of ECAFE region. 7. From about 1890 the real modern economic growth started. The average rate of growth from that time up to the second world war was 4 percent per annum. From about the same time, the birth rate and the rate of increase of population began to rise, as it is shown in "Table 1". This acceleration of population increase was, certainly, a reflection of improvement of economic life. There was the same phenomenon after the Industrial Revolution in England and other countries. But it was a feature of the Japanese case that the force of population increase was wealter than that of other countries and the duration of it was shorther. 8. Japan started her modernization later than the European countries and endeavored to catch up with them. Consequently the every phase of modernization was accelerated, for example, the demographic transition was accomplished in only one hundred years in Japan, in contrast to that it took two hundred years in England. However, it is not denied that the impetuous process of modernization left unfavorable influences upon several aspects of national life. 9. The most important point is what mechanism was acting behind the fact that the Japanese economy could develop at so high rate of growth as 4 percent per annum. Before answering to this question, it must be noticed that the pre-war development process is divided into two parts, the one is the period before 1905 and the other one is after 1905. That the leading industry was non-agricultural, especially manufacturing industry is common for both periods. But there is a difference which divides the period, that is, non-agricultural industry grew by input of labour force in the period before 1905, but it grew by improvement of productivity of labour in the period after 1905. 10. From about 1887 the rate of population increase began to rise gradually, but it did not rise so much , it was a little more than one percent at the highest. There is no evidence that the labour force participation rates rose definitely during this period. Therefore the rate of increase of labour force was guessed to be as low as that of population itself. However there was quite a large difference of rate 65 of increase of labour force between in agricultural sector and in non- agricultural sector. This is, the rate of increase of labour force was 3 or 4 percent per annum in non-agricultural sector but it was much smaller in agricultural sector (Table 2"). 11. Behind the fact that non-agricultural sector could grow at high rate by input of labour force, there was volumiôus migration of labour from agricultural sector to non-agricultural sector. There is a statistical evidence that more than 90 percent of increase of labour force in non-agricultural sector was due to the inflow from agricultural sector in early Meiji era ("Table 3"). Thereafter the percentag gradually decreased but it remained still high at 80 percent in 1900- 1905. The reasons why agricultural sector could contribute a great deal of labour force to other sector are; (1) the birth rate was very high in farming households, (2) the agricultural production was stagnant, so that there was not sufficient demand for labour force in this sector, (3) the vroportion of agricultural population was tremendously large at the beginning of modernization, so the stock of surplus labour force was abundant. 12. In general, it can be said that the mechanism which made possible develorment of the industrial sector in the early stage of development from 1806 to 1905 was the exploitation of agricultural sector by non- agricultural sector. The funds were absorbed from the agriculture by the land tax system, the imrerts of raw materials and industrial facilities were financed by exports of agricultural products, and agri- cultural sector formed a domestic market for the industry. The fact that the agricultural sector supplied labour force to non-agricultural sector should be understood as an aspect of those relationships. 13. From about 1906 the Japanese economy entered into a new stage of development. In this stage industrial sector grew by its own ability, not depending on agricultural sector. The labour productivity in industrial sector remarkably rose, while the productivity in agriculture was stagnant. Consequently the situation of differential development between industrial sector and agricultural sector was formed. Especially the rationalization of industry which was introduced after the first world war raised the productivity in industry by 60 percent during the period from 1922 to 1933. As the result, the difference of development beteen two sectors more widened. Although during the first world war a problem of labour shortage appeared temporarily, the basic condition of surplus labour supply remained unchanged behind it. After the war the situation became more severe by the structural change which formed a new pool of surplus labour in manufacturing and trading beside agriculture. Thus the so-called "dual structure' of the Japanese economy was fixed in this period, and it remained until recently. 14. When the second world war ended, the level of national life measured by national income per capita was at about a half of the pre-war level. While a great deal of material resources had been destroyed, only human resources increcsed tremendously by repatriation of soldiers and civilians from abroad. The number of net increase of porulation from the end of the war to the middle of 1250 amounted to five million. Most of them 66 belonged to the productive ages. Because the Japanese economy was in a chaotic condition at that time, the tremendous increase of population imposed a heavy burden to national economy. Especially it put pressure on job opportunity. Practically the increase of employment at that time occurred mainly in primary and tertiary industries, not in secondary industry. 15. From about 1950, the Japanese economy entered into the normal process. But the years from 1950 to 1955 were preparation period for the high economic growth which started from around 1955. The rate of increase of labour force continued to be high. But the cause of increase changed from the exogenous factor, repatriation from abroad which dominated before 1950 to an endogeous factor, the rise of labour force participation rates. The rise of labour force participation rates took place both in male and female. The reasons why the rates rose in this period are; that the difficulty of living pushed family members to work outside their home, that the liberation of female opened job opportunities to female and that job opportunities increased in accordance with the recovery of economic activity. 16. The rate of increase of labour force was so high as 3 percent per annum. It was especially high in female labour force. The demand for labour force increased too, but the rate of it was less than 3 percent. Because the supply of lahour force expanded a little faster than the demand of it, the number of unemployed increased. The increase of employ- ment occurred mainly in labour intensive industries, as trading or service industries and it was relatively small in capital intensive industries. Thus it can be said that there still existed the situation of capital shortage and labour surplus, which was the traditional situation in Japan. 17. From around 1956, the basic condition of labour economy has changed evidently. On the one hand, the increase of labour force became slowed down, on the other hand, the demand for labour force was strongly prompted by the high economic growth which began from this time. In this relation a motive which contributed to improve the condition of labour market. appeared. The rate of increase of labour force from 1955 to 1960 was 1.5 percent per annum, it was about a half of 2.8 percent which was seen from 1950 to 1955. The decline of rate of increase was due to partly that the increase of productive age population became smaller because of decrease of births in the war time and partly that the labour force participation rates declined. The participation rate of male population declined from 85.7 percent in 1955 to 84.5 percent in 1960, and that of female popula- tion declined from 55.2 percent to 53.8 percent. The decline of participa- tion rates occurred in each age. 18. Although the rate of increase of employment opportunities was lower in this period than in the former period, the rate of increase of employ- ment was higher than that of supply of labour force. Consequently the number of unemployed decreased. Thus the stock of surplus labour which was accumulated in the past has been gradually swept off and the moderni- zation of employment structure began. First of all, the number of agri- cultural workers which did never decrease until this time began to decrease. At the same time, the relative proportion of agricultural workers to all 67 workers declined remarkably. On the other hand the number, of workers in manufacturing, trading and service industries increased absolutely and relatively. Especially, the acceleration of economic growth which was promoted by the income doubling plan started from 1960 exerted a great influence on the labour economy. necently the new problem of labour shortage has become a central problem of Japanese economy. Because this kind of problem has not been experienced in the past excent the war time, it can be said that the Japanese econouy is facing to quite a new phase of its development. 19. There are estimates of the future labour force population on certain assumptions. The one is on the assumntion that the labour force part- icipation rates remain unchanged at the current level in future. According to this estimate, the future trends of labour force population are the following, as it is shown in "Table 4 (A)", that is 43,294 (thousand) in 1965, 56,901 in 1975 and 61,598 in 1985. The rate of annual increase is 1.7 percent in 1965-75 and 0.6 percent in 1976-05. So the rate of increase will become half in the latter. In this estimate, the labour force participation rates are assumed unchanged at the current level, therefore the slowing down of the rate of increase is exclusively due to the change of the productive age population. The years of 1947- 49 were the baby-boom years when more than two million and sixty hundred tnousand babies vere borne annually. Thereafter the number of babies decreased to one million and sixty hundred thousand in 1957. The effect of this drastic decrease of births will appear as the slowing down of the rate of increase of labour force. 20. In « 1966 494,8 - 2,4 - 182,9 2.1 1971 : 559,6 2,5 206.1 2,4 1976 630,2 2,4 235,7 2,7 1961 to 1976 - 2,4 - 2,4 Sources Revised Population Projections, Office of the Registrar General, Government of India, 1966, (unpublished), Table 2 Sectoral Growth of Labour-Force (1961-1976) 9 ! Agricultural Workers " Non-Agricultural Workers - , . Year + Number in | Annual Rate of. , Number in : Annual Rate of «+ Millions ' Growth + Millions . Growth + : (Compound) . + ‘ (Compound) 1961 — 116,1 - 48,4 . - 1966 124,0 1,3 58,9 4,0 1971 133,2 1,4 72,9 4,3 1976 A 141,4 - 1,2 94,3 5.3 1961 to 1976 ze 1,3 - 4,5 Table 3 Growth and Structure of Income (at 1960-61 prices) National Income ' Agricultural Income' Non-Agricultural Income , 1 r Year , Amount ‘Annual Rate , Amount ‘Annual Rate ,Amount ¡Annual Rate , (Midlion . of Growth , (Million . of Growth ¿(Million , of Growth . Ps.) , (Compound) ; Rs.) , (Compouna) y Pe) , (Compound) 1961 141, 400 68,900 - 72,500 - 1966 173,285 4,1 77,885 2,5 95,400 5.6 1971 231,000 5,9 99,545 5,0 131,455 6.6 1976 330,091 7.4 131,775 5.8 198,316 8,6 1981 to 1976 - 5.8 - 4,5 - 6,9 Table_4 Average Rates of Investment and Average and ilarginal Rates of Savings « Capital ?utput Ratios - 4th Plan: Agriculture 2,0:1 Non-agriculture 3,0:1 ; 5th Plan: Agriculture 2,5:1 ; Non-agriculture 3,0:1 ) 1 Average. Average ‘Rate of Savings in Âg- "Rate of Savings in Non- , Period : Rate of ' Rate of ricultural Sector : Agricultural Sector Investment" Savings 7 Marginal — Marginal ' , ‘Average, —' Average: — =—— : : : : A 1 B , . A , B __ 1961-66 13,0 9.5 4,1 - - 14,2 - - 1966-71 14,7 12,2 5.5 11,7 15,4 17,0 25,0 44,7 1971-76 19,6 17,6 8,6 18,6 22,4 23,9 39,0 69.9 = Additional Savings B = Additional Savings per Yorker Additional Income Additional Income per worker LL 78 The implications of demographic trends in the 'ECAFE' region for the growth of the workforce, investment and employment. A. Ghosh. Director, Demographic Research Unit Applied Economics Department Jadavpur University Calcutta 1. Traditional growth models of the type made familiar by Harrod and Domer consists of the following sets of equations: Y(t) = c(s) + I(t) c(t) = +aY(t) Y(t) Y(t-1) = M + 3I(t) where Y(t) is income, C(t) consumption, I(t) investment at time t. This i. eventually reduced into a difference equation generating a time sequence of the. type I(t) = 3.I(t-1) or Y(t) = t t x.Y(t-1) leading to a solution in the form I(t) = a or Y(t) == . depending on the constant defining the rate of growth. 2. The model is obviously independent of demographic factor ss the parameters determining the growth process are independent of any population effect explicitly. In such models consumption or, investments are treated purely as functions of income. In an economy where the level of living is much above subsistence to conceive of consumption as solely determined by income does not scem unreasonable as variations of expenditure primarily depends on changes in income; the amount of consump- tícn which is invariant to income and indicates subsistence 79 level is a small portion-of-the total consumption expenditure. 3. Taking individual consumption as determined by indivi- duzl income some aggregation process ray be conceived to rive also en agererate consumption function of this type. Consider however, an econony where the level of living is low and almost near the irreducible minimum which is consumed before income variation can become effective. Turther, suppose that this invariant portion is a large vortion of the total expenditure of the comwniiy. In this case vo can modify the consumption function and formulate it in a different way as follows: Let C(t) = e, (+) + c, (+) where, c, (+) c(t) = Income dependent consumntion Subsistence level of consumption Then C, (+) = «a + BP(4) where P(+) is Populetion et time t. Also, Colt) =K+ AVE) =m a — BP(t) where Y(t) - a - pP(t) is the income remaining after the subsistence consumption is taken away. Then C(t) AQUINO = K + 8[¥(t) = « - pP(+)} + a + pP(t) = (K - 3a +a) + (f= pd) P(t) + oY(t) which may be written as, C(t) = K + aY(t) + gP(+) in reduced form. 4. The obvious interpretation of this is that at this level the minimum per capita subsistence consumption multiplied by the ponulation gives a first estimate of the aggregate consump- tion. The income effect comes into play only for the residual part after this is taken out. 5. Consider for examvle two groups of families one with large family size and the other group with small family size. The second group will show considercbly more sensitivity to income variation than the first one specislly, if they both belor= to low income group. 80 : 6. In poor societies institutional practices are always evolved which at least tend to procure subsistence food to the population before income effect can come into play. The large number of retaîners, hangers on and poor relatives in backward societies are considered to be part of ones social responsibility if there is a large enough income. Comparatively useless servants are considered essential for social prestiege. These practices tend to secure food to as large a group as possible where there is a large enough income. Whatever the institutional form, such.a situation may be described by the reformulated model of the Harrod-Domer type as below: Y(t) = C(t) + I(t) C(t) = K + aY(t) + gP(t) Y(t) - Y(t-1) = M + 8I(t-1) 7. The obvious implication of the new consumption function is that it now responds not only to income but also to the : population explicitly. 8. As soon as the traditional growth model is reframed in this form some very interesting situations emerge in the growth process due to the population effect. 9. Solving the system for a one year process, we get the income as follows: Y(t) = (1 + à - au)Y(t-1) - aBP(t-1) + (M - 2K) is as coin sequence considered as a process over 6 years Y(t) = (1 + 3 = 0a). T(t-0) - (1+2- 80) .agr(t-0) - (1 +38- 8) apP(t-0-1)........ -(1 + à - 3a) dBP(t-2) - dpP(t-1) os + (1 +20 da) (M - 93K) + (1 +93 - da) (M - àK) 0. + (M =~ 3K) Similarly, we get à one year growth process for investment as below: I(t) = (1 - a) (1+a- 20) Y(t-1) - (1-a) aBP(t-1) -BP(t) + (1-0) (M -aK) -K. 81 Extending tne process to 0 years we have, I(t) = (1 - a) (1 + à - 3x) Y(t-0) - (1 - a) - 6-1 (1 + à - 3x) BP(t-6) - (1-a) (1 + à - da) BP(t-0-1)......-(1-a) OBP(t-1) - BP(+) 9-1 6-2 + (1-c) (1 + à - êx) (M-3K)=(1-c) (1+3-3a) (M - àK)......(1-«) (M - 3K) - K. 11. In both the growth process for incomes and investment we can now see the retarding effect of population growth emerging very clearly. In fact, it may be seen that under gugh a condition, the income or investment would rise in the form à*-9 or n*-0 the population of each of the 0 years cutting into it, like a discoun- ting or depreciating factor. 0-2 12. Assuming an exponential form for population growth we can in effect write as e st Y(t) = (1 + 2 = 20) Y(t-0) 9 0-3 Elj-1) eo (1 +3 - 3a) e =1 + Constant where Y(t) is projected from a point of time(t-6). The negative sum clearly showing the effect of population growth on income. Similar expression can easily be derived for the effect on investment. II 13. We shall now demonstrate an empirical model which was fitted to Indian data. The following constants were fitted to the model by the Method of Least Square. C(t) = 467.7943 + 0.7761Y(t) + 22.4900P(t) Y(t) - Y(t-1) = - 107.45 + 0.5220I(t) . 14. Before generating the growth series and comparing with actual figures for the past years it may be vseful to indicate the limitations of the fitting process. 82 15. Table 1 gives the expected and observed figures for the consumption function and the investment function respectively. 16. It will be seen that while consumption function shows a reasonably good fit the investment function does not. In fact the high fluctuation In investment has compelled us to take four year average for fitting the function as the year to year oscill- ation was too high. The rather poor fitting of the investment function in the present case made the investment sequence rather unreliable as will be seen later. 17. We give in table 2 the projection for income and investment which were computed with 0=1 and 0=5 respectively from growth model for income and investment respectively. 18. It may be seen that while income is reasonably well projected investment is not. This is due to the fact that invest- ment had.a.very wide fluctuation as discussed earlier. The present investment function also does not include a possible effect of increased labour supply on income, We shall consider this point in a slightly different model later. 19. We now add to the model two further equations relating investment to employment and employment to the labour force. E(t) - E(t-1) = -.0123 + .0000229I(t-1) L(t) - L(t-1) = I(t) + .0635P(+)P(t-1) where E(t) is employment and L(t) is the labour force. The data was fitted with two year averages to smooth out irregul- arities. Labour force has been fixed on the basis of the ratio of labour to population in 1961 Census. The expected and observed data for the employment to investment relation are given in table 3. 20. The figures given in table 4 are the estimates of the labour force and of employment by this model. Projecting the labour force as constant fraction of the population based on census of 1951 and 1961, a gap between projected employment and the labour force looking for employment was computed as shown in that table. 21. Assuming that the need of population first to feed itself is dominant the impact of population on investment on the one hand and on labour force on the other becomes patently clear. While projection of labour has grown by .41 crore, projected employment has growi-by .013 crore only. 83 III 22. The above model however is rather one sided and naieve in the sense that productivity of labour is taken to be constant and output is not in any way assumed to be affected by the labour force. But if we assume that growth of labour force also increased income to some extent(i.e. that the shadow price of labour is not absolutely zero) we can modify the income equation as follows: Y(+) - X(t) =0, + a, [2(+) - P(t-1)] + 9, I(t-1) This is analogous to the Cobb-Douglas type in a linear form i.e. The Cobb-Douglas function is given as, ô a Y AK 11 2 or, [ask Const + A LL o [23] = Const + es % | if AL = AP T TP 23. Instead however of proportionate change we are consi- dering a simple linear change only in the form Y = a + LA K(=I) + à, P. 3 24. It must be explained that this form is taken simply with a view to demonstrate growth over time in a simple way by bringing in the two-sided effect of population growth on savings {oy reducing savings) and on output by employing more labour as marginal productivity of labour is > 0). Under such a condition, the sequence will naturally take a more cumbrous form as given below: 0 Y(t) = (1 + 2, A 8,0) Y(t-60) 57 9,0) P(+-1) +osocooo 3.0 + da - 8,0) 9 P(t-0) -G, + 2,8) P(t-1) -(1 + 8, - 8,0) (3, + 938) P(t-2) +3, P(t) + 3,(1 +3 00 000.00 : 9 {2 +8, - 2.2) (8, + 2,8) P(+-0 + 5) +3, - E. +(1 + 8, - 8,0) @ - K) 007010000000 0 +(1 + 3, —3 a)" (3, - K) Assuming an exponentiad growth of population, we get, Y(t) = (1 + 2 -B 0 Yo) a Po) (1 + 2, = aya)” $31) La -(3, + 0,8) P(t-0) £(1 + à - da) e(3-1) 3 j 3 3 e + Suit, 25. It may be appreciated that no unconditional statement can any longer be made about the output due to increase in population. The final result depends on both the marginal consum- ption coefficient for the population as also the marginal produc- tivity coefficient for labour. 26. Under such conditions one can derive ways of finding the level of marginal labour productivity which will mike: it Just possible for the process to increase monotonically and the condition under which it will lead to a stagnation or a downward moving economy. ; 27. Theoretical and empirical work on this and other aspects are being continued in the unit. 85 Table 1. (Unit = 10 million Rs’) Consumntion Investment Year. Expected. Observed. Av. Year. Expected. Observed. 1948 19419 1946-51 202.50 198.05 1950 1951 8410 8360 1952 8638 8657 1953 9206 9117 1952-55 385.00 395.72 1954 9280 9329 195 9270 9501 1956 9897 9924 1957 10277 10195 1958 10656 10466 1957-60 542.50 536.23 1959 10986 10905 1960 11317 11543 1961 11633 11620 Table 2. (Unit = 10 million Rs) Observed. Estimated for Estimated for 6=1 6=5 neem foot) 13060 13346 13753 Income(1956 11000 10683 10755 Tren end 1427 1504 1078 Investment(1956 1103 1051 555 86 Table 3. (Unit = Crore) Employment Year. Observed. Estimated. 1951-52 0.50 0.50 1953-54 0.70 0.80 1955-56 2.26 1.41 1957-58 0.65 1.33 1959-60 1.73 1.86 1961 2.07 2.03 Table 4. (Unit = Crore) 1962 1956 (Projected from (Projected from data of 1957) data of 1951) Labour force 4,26 3.85 Employment 0.015 «002 87 DEMOGRAPHIC ASPECTS OF POTENTIAL LABOUR FORCE GROWTH IN PAKISTAN by Lee L. Bean Demographic Advisor, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics. 1. Within the framework of the Pakistan's current 20 year Perspect- ive Plan, the Planning Commission has set five explicit development goals; of these, the target of full employment ranks as a monumental task.1 It's achievement will be strongly influenced by the rate of growth of the popu- lation and effective manpower planning. Not only must work be provided for those entering the labour force between 1965 and 1985, but additional employment opportunities must be provided if the level of unemployment and underemployment is to be reduced. This is a major task in its own right since the Planning Commission, combining the concepts of "under- employment" and "unemployment" under the single term "unemployment", estimates its level at 20 percent of the labour force in 1965. 2. The success of the employment programme as outlined by the Planning Commission is dependent in large part on the validity of their assumptions regarding the potential size of the labour force through the perspective plan period. As projected by the Planning Commission, the expected size of the labour force depends upon a population projection which reflects a 1965-70 rate of growth of 2. 6 percent; a rate which appears unreasonably low on the basis of recent data. Secondly the potent- ial size of the labour force depends upon a set of labour force participation rates which have not been clearly specified. Inpun employment" is defined in the plan as employment of 96 percent of the labour force. Government of Pakistan, The Third Five Year Plan 1965-70), 17, 24-26 (June, 1965) Ibid, 25 bid, 24 3. Given the importance placed on full employment in the Perspective Plan it is useful first to re-examine in detail the relationship between popu- lation growth and the supply of labour in Pakistan in view of recent estimates of vital rates and second to review the factors likely to influence future participation rates. The basic materials used for this purpose are based upon a new series of population projections for Pakistan made by Bean and M. R. Khan at the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics. The Population Projection 4, The population projections used in this paper were made using standard age-sex projection techniques,® but may be seen to differ from those of The Planning Commission in two ways: (1) the adjustments in the base population, and (2) the data used in estimating the initial level of the vital rates. A complete report of the adjustment procedures, methodology and projections are available from the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics. 5. Since significantly different demographic conditions exist in East and West Pakistan, all adjustments and projections were made separately for two provinces. / See / ex Table 3.7 6. Briefly, the following adjustments were made in the base population as enumerated in the 1961 census. For West Pakistan additions were made for the frontier, tribal and special areas which had been partially enumerated and partially estimated and therefore not included in the detailed breakdowns by age and sex. Estimates of the population under- enumerated in the age group 0-4 (both males and female) were made on the basis of constructed stable population models for males and the number of females was estimated on the basis of an assumed sex ratio of birth of 105. 7 as found in the Population Growth Estimation data for East Pakistan, 1963.6 Separate adjustments for age misreporting were made in the case of the age group 5-9 and 10-14 as these groups were subject to special “Bean, Lee L., and Masihur Rahman Khan, The Population of Pakistan: 1960-2000, forthcoming research report of The Pakistan Institute of Development Economics. SUnited Nations, Methods for Population Projections by Sex and Age, Population Studies, 25, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, ST/SOA/Series A, New York (1956) ÉFor a description of the Population Growth Estimation Project in Pakistan see Ahmed, Nazir and Karol J. Krotki, Simultaneous Estimations of Population Growth: The Pakistan Experiment, The Pakistan Development Review, II, 37-65 (1963) 89 problems in the census. / See 17.7 The base population was smoothed for the 2-e groups 25-29 and above, but nc” for younger age groups because of the separate corrections which had been previously made and also be- cause the age group 15-19 and 20-24 were adversely affected to a much greater degree than other age groups by the Bengal famine, World War II and Partition. The female population was adjusted separately using a set of model life tables which reflected the sex difference in mortality condit- ions. 7. The adjusted base population of 102, 4 million is higher by 9. 3 per- cent than the 1961 census figures. / See Annex Table 2, 7 While our base population figures are lower than those of the Planning Commission for Fast Pakistan, they are higher in West Pakistan since the Planning Commission appears to have made no allowance for the tribal, frontier and added areas. 8. The base population was adjusted to the timing sequence of the var- ious plan periods. The corrected base population was moved back in time from February 1, 1961 to July 1, 1960; that is to the beginning of the Second Five Year Plan and five years prior to the current Perspective Plan. 9. Vital rates assumed to apply to-the 1960-65 period are based upon the most recent complete Population Growth Estimation estimates. Fertil- ity schedules’ are based upon 1963 P. G. E. data and mortality rates® and the life tables are based upon 1962-63 mortality data. Selected fertility- mortality rates and life table functions are indicated in Annex Table 3. The growth rates computed from these data are 3.5 in East Pakistan and 3.4 in West Pakistan in contrast to the Planning Commission growth rate of 2. 6 percent in each province.9 10. The crude rates computed from P. G. E. data are birth rate (1963), 54.9 in East Pakistan and 53. 5 in West Pakistan; crude death rates 19.6 and 19. 1 in the two provinces respectively. Khan, Masihur Rahman, Lee L. Bean, A. Razzaque Rukanuddin, A New Look at Fertility in Pakistan and Its Implications for Family Planning, The Pakistan Journal of Family Planning, I, 27-34 (January, 1967) 8Bean, Lee L., and Masihur Rahman Khan, Mortality Patterns in Pakistan, paper presented at the 7th All Pakistan Statistical Conference, Dacca (1967) Preliminary analysis of 1964 and 1965 P, G. E. data indicates that the East Pakistan growth rate is slightly lower than 3.5 90 11. To determine the effect of various changes over the short run covered by the Perspective Plan, four projections were examined: (a) Assumption I - Constant fertility and declining mortality (b) Assumption I - Declining fertility of 30 percent between 1970 and 1985, and declining mortality Declining fertility of 50 percent between 1965 and 1985 and declining mortality Constant fertility and constant mortality (c) Assumption IIT (d) Assumption IV 12. For the first three assumptions, it was assumed that mortality declines exponentially from 1960 to 1985 so that by the end of the Perspect- ive Plan period the following expectations of life at birth obtained: 60. 75 and 63. 78 for males and females respectively in East Pakistan and 61. 27 and 63. 76 in West Pakistan, 10 13. As will become clear in a later section of this paper, none of the various projections are greatly different with respect to labour force estimates since the broad outlines of the labour force in 1985 have been established by the base population and the vital rates which have already produced a broad based age structure. The Labour Force in Pakistan 14. It is difficult to establish trends for the labour force in Pakistan for recent periods because of the lack of data as well as the lack of comparability in the available data sources. Since Partition in 1948 the most comprehensive body of labour force data is contained in the 1961 census. The labour force age-sex participation rates / See Annex Table 4.77 reported in the 1961 census appear to have been used in the Planning Commission projections and will be employed in the initial estimates made here. 15. In using the 1961 census labour force data, it is important to recognise certain problems which affect the labour force data. Questions dealing with the economically active population were theoretically asked of all individuals aged 10 and over and appear to have embodied two quite distinct concepts: the "gainful worker" approach was applied to the agricultural population and the "labour force" concept to the non-agricul- tural population, 11 10see Bean, and Khan, The Population of Pakistan 1960-2000, op.cit office of The Census Commissioner, Ministry of Home and Kashmir Affairs, Home Affairs Division, Population Census of Pakistan, 1961, 1, V 8-17, Manager of Publications, Karachi (no date) 91 16. Because of the organization of the census (volunteer, unpaid enumerators) and the time involved in completing the economic activity questions there have been questions raised concerning the accuracy of this and other sections of the census.12 It is evident from an analysis of the 1961 census age structure that many individuals in the age group 10-14 were returned in the age group 5-9. Whether young persons actually in the labour force were disproportionately shifted below the minimum labour force age level appears unlikely in view of the relatively high labour force participation rate for this age group, especially in Fast Pakistan. / See Annex Table 4,7 Indeed it is more likely that the labour force partici- pation rate for this age group -- at least for males -- is somewhat too high, even though the majority of labour is concentrated in agriculture. 17. The impact of using the "gainful worker" concept for the agricul- tural population may again have the effect of inflating the labour force participation rates but most likely in the older age groups. Where adverse health conditions sap the vitality and strength of the population, the very high participation rates for the male population over age 60 are question- able, The actual contribution of older males to the labour force is likely to be extremely marginal although they still regard themselves as tillers of the soil. Often work is limited to seasonal peak periods of activity such as the harvest, yet such seasonally employed persons would have been included in the labour force statistics. Under these conditions the 1961 labour force estimates for male age specific participation may be regarded as maximum estimates. 18. In contrast to the male participation rates, it is likely that the female participation rates are minimal. As we have shown elsewhere the simple rewording of census questions between 1951 and 1961 resulted in a sizeable increase in the reported female labour force participation rates, 13 Religious and cultural values in Pakistan, however, are such that it is questionable whether the economic contribution of females was effectively measured. 19. Because of these problems it is worthwhile not only to consider the factors which affect projections for the population but also to consider potential changes in labour force participation rates and their impact upon future estimates of the labour supply. 12Krotki, Karol J., and Sultan S. Hashmi, Report on a Census Enumeration, The Pakistan Development Review, IL, 377-504 (1962) 13Bean, Lee L., Danial M. Farooq and Masihur Rahman Khan, The Labour Force in Pakistan :A Note on the 1961 Census, The Pakistan Development Review, VI 587-91 (1966) 92 Findings 20. The total population estimated under the four assumptions are indicated in Annex Table 5. For 1985 the estimates range from 247 million assuming no fertility decline to 194 million assuming maximum fertility decline. As one would expect even in the short run the mortality decline has less impact on the total population than the fertility decline. In contrast, the Planning Commission estimate for 1985 used in the Third Plan is 186. 6 million, 14 21. Changes in fertility will have little affect on the potential labour force supply in 1985, since only age group 10-14 would be affected under fertility assumption II and in addition age group 15-19 under fertility assumption II. This minimal effect is true, of course, only in the short run, The assumed rate of decline in mortality used in the projections will have even less impact on the labour supply at the end of the Perspective Plan Period because the greatest improvements affect the younger age groups and females. Both groups under constant 1961 participation rates contribute relatively little to the total supply. Table 1 Labour Force Estimates for 1985 by Province and Sex (1000's)? 1960 Assumptions Estimates _ I II TO . IV Pakistan Male 28, 291 63,865 63,516 62,385 61,719 Female 4, 235 9, 863 9,715 9, 329 9, 025 Total 32, 528 73,728 73,231 71,714 70,744 Fast Pakistan Male 14, 486 36,113 36,030 365,798 34,993 Female 2, 854 6, 967 6 850 6, 532 6,410 Total 17,717 43,008 42,880 42,330 41,403 West Pakistan Male 13, 428 27,752 27,486 26,587 26,726 Female 1,381 2, 896 2, 865 2,797 2, 616 Total 14, 809 30,648 30,351 29,384 29,341 “Source: Author!s calculations assuming constant 1961 age-sex labour force participation rates, Figures independently rounded. 14 Government of Pakistan, op. cit, 24 93 22. As indicated in Table 1, the 1960 labour force of 32. 5 million may be expected to more than double within the 25 year period 1960-85. Under the various fertility and mortality assumptions, but constant 1961 labour force participation rates, the estimates of the labour force range between 70.7 million and 73. 7 million. These estimates are all higher than the 62. 3 million estimated by the Planning Commission. Therefore regardless of future declines in fertility or mortality to 1985, the size of the labour force based upon assumed constant participation rates will be roughly 8 to 12 million greater than estimated in the Perspective Plan. The Affect of Changing Participation Rates 23. The total size of the labour force may be influenced by changing participation rates although likely changes will probably influence oniy three groups: (a) males and females below the age of 15, (b) males above the age of 60, and (c) females above age 15. Since male participation rates are universally high, little change may be anticipated in the short run for other male age groups. 24, As part of the programme to establish universal literacy, a pro- gramme of compulsory education has been projected which, in full force, would eliminate labour force participation before the age of 156. Such a change could have an important impact on the size of the labour force, although recent reductions in the allocation of funds for education, among other budgetary reductions, make it unlikely that this ambitious target will be achieved by 1985. If no male or female entered the labour force before the age of 15, the projected estimate of the labour force would be reduced to 64. 6 million for the projection under assumption III; that is the labour force would be reduced to a level only 3.7 percent higher than that projected by the Planning Commission. 25. The size of the labour force would be further reduced if the parti- cipation rates of older males decreases. It is likely that some decrease may occur as the result of urbanization and increasing proportions of labour in the non-agricultural sectors of the economy. Further, govern- mental interest in expanded social security programmes and the lowering of retirement age of governmental employees indicate some reduction is likely to occur. What the decline will be is difficult to predict however, 26. While the size of the labour force may be reduced by lower parti- cipation rates of older males and a rising age of entry into the labour market, any reduction may be off-set by increases in female labour force participation. Other Muslim countries have higher female labour force participation rates.19 Moreover the same set of religious and cultural 19United Nations, Demographic Yearbook. 1964, Department of Economic and Social Affairs 65, XIII. 1, 190-239 New York (1985) 94 values restricting female labour force participation currently may have somewhat the opposite result in the future. For example, as long as sex segregated educational facilities are maintained and medical treatment of females is limited to female medical practitioners, there will be an increasing demand for women workers in these areas, as indeed there has been for the period 1951-1961.1 27. The effect of an increase in female labour force participation may be seen in the following simple illustration. If no males or females enter the labour force in West Pakistan before the age of 15, the potential size of the labour force under Projection Assumption IV (constant fertility and mortality) would be reduced by 2.7 million. If the female participation rates in West Pakistan for the age groups 15-59 increase to the level of participation found in East Pakistan in 1961, an additional 2.3 million females would be added to the labour force. This would nearly off-set any reduction introduced by raising the age of entry to the labour force through compulsory education upto age 14 inclusive. 28. Given the fact that decreases in the labour force in 1985 resulting from lower participation rates for certain age-sex groups may be off-set by increasing female participation rates, it is unlikely that the size of the labour force as estimated under the various population projections will be significantly lower than what is estimated by applying constant age sex participation rates. Conclusions 29. The data presented in this paper indicate that the programme designed to expand employment opportunities in Pakistan in order to pro- vide full employment to the labour force in 1985 should be carefully reviewed. Labour force projections in the Perspective Plan based on an assumed population growth rate of 2. 6 percent underestimates the potent- ial size of the labour force by 8 to 12 million persons or 13 to 19 percent. To view the problem from a different perspective, if the assumed rate of expansion of employment opportunities is achieved, work could be provided for new entrants to the labour market but the assumed unemployment rate as calculated by the Planning Commission / See 1._7 would not be significantly reduced. 18 Lee L. Bean, The Female Labour Force in Pakistan, forthcoming in The Pakistan Development Review 95 30. The Perspective Plan labour force projection to 1985 can only be accepted if labour force participation rates are reduced by raising the age of entry to the labour market. This involves other unrealistic and perhaps unwise assumptions. Universal education would necessarily have to be provided to children through the age of 14. Secondly no increase in female participation rates could take place and this would be a misuse of a potent- ially important sector of manpower in Pakistan. 31. Fortunately the Planning Commission in Pakistan has been and appears to be willing to adjust their programmes as problems arise. Between the outline and final version, the Third Five Year Plan!” was revised to provide employment opportunities for 6, 5 million workers rather than 4. 5 million, Perhaps future imaginative manpower planning will enable Pakistan to achieve the target of full employment, but any programme must be geared to a faster rate of labour force expansion than currently estimated, 17 Compare Government of Pakistan Outline of the Third Five Year Plan (1965-70), 217 (August, 1964) and The Third Five Year Plan, 100 (March, 1965) 96 Table 2 Population Estimates for Pakistan by Province and Sex, 1961 Fast Pakistan West Pakistan Male Female Male Female 1961 Census* 26. 35 24, 49 22.96 19. 92 Planning Commission? 28. 26 26. 99 23. 92 22, 28 Bean and KhanC 27.42 26. 02 25. 40 23. 56 2 Office of the Census Commissioner, Ministry of Home and Kashmir Affairs, Home Affairs Division, Population Census of Pakistan, 1961, IT, II-1, Manager of Publications, Karachi, (no date) D Planning Commission, Perspective Plan Section, Population Projections for Pakistan, cyclostyled (May 1, 1964) C Bean, Lee L., and Masihur Rahman Khan, The Population of Pakistan: 1960-2000, forthcoming research report of The Pakistan Institute of Development Economics : Table 3 Selected Demographic Measures for East and West Pakistan, 1962-632 Fast Pakistan West Pakistan Rate of Index BS Male Female BS Male Female e% 49.18 46.91 51.10 48. 70 e910 54. 82 50. 59 57. 40 55. 24 . Infant Mortality 153. 3 128.3 153.0 135.5 Life Table Mortality Rates 22.0 22.0 21.1 22.0 Total Fertility 7.89 7.99 GRR 3. 87 3.84 NRR 2. 57 3.41 % Source: Population Growth Estimation data for 1962-63 97 Annex Table 4 Proportion of the Population in the Labour Force, by Age, Sex and Province, Pakistan, 19612 Fast Pakistan West Pakistan Age Male Female Male Female (percent) (percent) (percent) (percent) 10-15 58.1 12.8 38.4 4.7 15-19 81.1 16.8 72.3 7.6 20-24 91.6 17.5 87.9 9.6 25-34 96.9 19.2 93. 7 10. 6 35-44 96.5 19.2 94,4 11.7 45-54 97.1 20.5 94. 3 11.8 55-59 94. 8 17.1 940 10.2 60 and older 87.3 13.6 80. 1 7.9 “Source: Office of the Census Commissioner, Home Affairs Division, Population Census of Pakistan, 1961, Census Bulletin No. 5, Economic Characteristics, Manager of Publications, Karachi (no date) Table 5 Adjusted 1960 Pakistan Base Population and Estimated 1985 Population by Sex and Province (1000's)* 1960 Base 1985 Population Estimates Assumption I II In IV Pakistan Male 50, 455 126, 728 112,714 99, 346 122, 657 Female 47, 265 120,527 107,190 94, 464 111, 557 Both Sexes 97,720 247,255 219,904 193,810 234, 214 East Pakistan - Male 27,016 71,482 63, 254 55, 426 69, 117 Female 25, 605 68, 430 60, 579 53, 100 64, 172 Both Sexes 52,621 123,912 123, 833 108, 526 133, 289 West Pakistan Male 23, 439 55, 246 49, 460 43,920 53, 540 Female 21, 660 52, 097 46,611 41,364 47, 385 Both Sexes 45, 099 107,343 96, 071 85, 284 100, 925 “Source: Author's calculations, See Bean, Lee L., and Masihur Rahman Khan, The Population of Pakistan, 1966-2000, forthcoming research report of The Pakistan Institute of Development Economics. Figures independently rounded 98 Fertility Control, Investment and Per Capita Cutput: A Demo- graphic-Econometric Model of the Philippines Theodore K. Ruprecht! - Associate Professor Economics Introduction i. The purpose of this paper is to explore the implications of alternative patterns of Philippine fertility for several crucial economic growth variables. The problem is investigated through the development of a demographic-econometric model of the Philippines. A description of the model is presented in “the first section of the paper. The model is used to simulate the performance of the economy up to the year 2000 under con- ditions of uncontrolled and controlled fertility, under condi- tions of historical productivity, augmented productivity, and shifts in the structure of the economy. The results of these simulations are reported in the second section. The Model 1. The model 1s linked at the center to an aggregate Cobb- Douglas production function. The form of the aggregate pro- duction function is: 1) GNP= A L' ¥* no 7%, where L, K, and N are resource inputs and represent land, cap- ital and labor respectively, T is time, w, x, y and z are their exponents and A 1s a statistical constant. The function was estimated from Philippine data for GNP, land, capital and em- x 1 - The author is associated with Eumboldt State College, U. S. A.. The research for this paper has been supported by a Fulbright Research Grant and by a grant from the Population Council. The author wished to express his indebtedness to Stephen Resnick and Frank Jewett for thelr assistance in the formulation of the model and to Roy Tucker for his programming assistance. He would also like to express his gratitude to Richard Hooley who made avallable much of hls unpublished Philippine data. > 99 ployment for the post-war period 1950-1962. 2 De The estimated form is: 1a) log GNP = -.276 + .649 log L + .296 log K + .157 log L - .022 log T (.195) (.120) (.160) (.031) (3.3) (2.5) (1.0) (.7) The standard errors of the regression coeficients are given be- low the coeficients and the computed T values below them, Sta. tistical significance is indicated at the .95 confidence level for land and capital (T = 2.3). R? is .9975, the F value is 797.4 and the sum of resource coefficients is 1.09 indicating some economies of scale. The value for the Durbin-Watson "d'" statistic to test for auto correlation is 1,50, This value lies between the upper and lower bound of the test, thus, we cannot assuredly either accept or reject the hypothesis of ran- dom disturbances: The test is inconclusive. 3. The interpretation of this function is that a one percent increase in land will increase GNP by .65 percent, & one per- cent increase in the capital stock will expand GNP by .3 per- cent and a similar increase in labor will cause a .16 percent rise in GNP. Thus, if the resource inputs over time can be dé=- termined, the production functinn provides a means of estimat- ing GNP over time. 4, The remainder of the model is designed to yield estimates of these inputs. Space allows, however, for only a very brief descripation of the techniques used to make the various input projections. All three input estimates are tied to the under- lying population projections. They are described in detail in Frank Lorimer, Analysis and Projections of the Population of the Philippines.3 Essentially, they are five year age-sex projec- tions based upon an assumed age-specific pattern of mortality and fertility decline. They are rooted to the 1960 census enu- meration and adjusted age structure. The age adjustments and Zep more complete description of the model can be found in Thoedore K. Ruprecht, Fertility Control and Per Capita Income in the Philippines-Some First Approximations, paper presented at the Demographic-Economic Seminar, University of the Philip- pines, November 1966. To be published Philippine Economic Journal VI, (1967) First Conference on Population 1965, University of the Philippines Press 200-31%, Quezon City (1966) 100 determination of a consistent set of values for fertility lev- el, mortality level, and thelr age specific patterns were ob- tained through quasi-stable population analysis. Two projec- tions are used in this study, both assume an identical time pattern of age-specific mortality decline. Projection I as- sumes no decline in fertility. Projection II assumes a fertil- ity decline beginning in 1970. 5, The land input estimates depend upon population in the sense that they are functions of consumption demand as measured by the number of consumers. The rate of increase in the num- ber of consumers is derived from the population projections by converting the population numbers to male adult equivalent con- sumer units on the basis of a set of age-sex consumption ‘weights. Two land projections thus result in which land is a positive function of population pressure. The projections were made by averaging the absolute land values required to maintain the existing average harvested crop area per male adult equiv- alent consumer unit and the values calculated on the basis of the average historical expansion in harvested crop area. This proceedure was continued until the extensive and margin was reached at an estimated 12.0 million hectares” after which growth is constrained to a constant 100 thousand hectares per year as a result of the exploitation of the intensive margin until an absolute maximum was reached at 14.2 million hectares. 6. The two projections of capital inputs are derived from a disagregated saving model in which three saving sectors are identified, the corporate business sector, the household sec- tor, and the government sector, Savings in the business sec- tor take the form: 2) Sp = f(GNP) The function was estimated from deflated Philippine data for gross saving (retained earnings plus depreciation) for the per- iod 1949-1962. The estimated equasion is: 2a) Sp = -191.05 + .0531 GNP (.004) 7. Savings in the household sector take the form: 3) Sy = GNP - C where GNP is disposable income and C see Jose S. Gutierrez, "Agricultural Froductivity and Population Increase: The Philippine Case", First Conference on Population 1965, University of the Philippines Press, 480, Quezon City (1966) - 101 ts consumption. Estimation yielded the following equasion for household saving: Sy = -1,781.55 + .707 GNP - C. pot Fopulation enters this saving function via its influence upon consumption expenditures which consist of a population deter- mined consumption widening component and an income determined consumption deepening component. Consumption widening repre- sents the increase in consumption which occurs as a result of increasing numbers and, therefore, needs to be calculated on the basis of the male adult equivalent consumer units derived from the population projections. Consumption deepening re- presents the increase in consumption out of net disposable in- come where net disposable income is the increase in income net of consumption widening. Net disposable income is, thus, the income increment not already allocated to consumption widening expenditures. This technique of estimation allows for the de- composition of the conventional marginal propensity to consume into its consumption widening and deepening component. The latter represents the marginal propensity to increase consump- tion out of "unencombered" disposable income, i.e., out of the increment in income not already allocated to provide for con- sumption widening. The estimates made from our projections of this marginal propensity to consume appear to be favorably low, .5 - .6 for even rapid rates of income increase, 2. Saving in the government sector is defined as the surplus on current account and takes the form: 1 = - +) Sc R Ec where R, a function of GNP, is total government revenue and Eq s zovernment current expenditures. Current expenditures are sroken down into health (Ey) + education(Ecpg)» and "other" ex- D enditures. Health and education current expenditures are unctiors of population while "other" expenditures is a func- ion of government revenue. Current education expenditures are rojected on the basls of expenditure widening. Current health pendltures are projected on the basis of an estimation of ex- nditure widening and deepening arrived at through decomposi- on analysis of historic data. The revenue equasion is: R= 9 o Dj r X 2£.1 + 294 GNP and the "other" current expenditures equa- n 1s equal to Eco = -113.1 + Wa The equasion for gov- A + cts O3 > ernment saving thereby becomes: = -530 NP - - E Lb) Sc 539.47 + .099 GNP Ecy ECra + 9. The sum of S,, Sgr and Sc equals total saving and is taken 102 equal to investment. This figure is adjusted for depreciation and inventory in order to bring it into conformity with the re- guirements of the production function. 10. It should be noted that demographic considerations enter the saving model at a number of places. It enters the business saving function in that the coefficient is influenced by the unlimitedness of labor supply. It enters the household saving equasion through its influence on consumption and the govern- ment saving equasion through its impact upon education and health expenditures. 11. The labor inputs are projected directly from the popula- tion projections. The population estimates were grouped by sex into the age groups 10-24, 25-44, 45-65 and over and employment rarticipation rates averaged from successive rounds of the Thilippine Statistical Survey of Households labor force surveys, were applied to yield the projected number of employed labor- ers. 22, The above analysis provides the required land, capital and labor nits for the aggregate production function projec- In this analysis population 1s seen to effect output per head through its influence on the output numerator as well 25 the population denominator. Population enters the determin- ation of the GNP numerator directly through its influence on the size of the labor input and indirectly through its influ- ence on capital via savings and land via its role in determin- ing land expansion. ti ions. 13. Once set in motion, the model computes for each population projection (each fertility condition) annual estimates of, among other things, GNP, the rate of growth of GNP by source, savings by sector, the capital stock, consumption, gross in- vestment and net investment. 5-1t should be noted that this version of the model is not a simultaneous system. The non-simultaneous nature of the mo- del avoids the problem of estimation blas. Even in a simultan- eous syscem which was not estimated by two-stage-least squares techniques it is not clear that estimation bias would be a sig- nificant problem because while the model is of the form GNP = f(I) and T = f(GNP), both GNP and investment are functions of other independent variables. In computing the annual percent- age changes in inputs, the following time considerations hold: Le = Dear, Ma = Neg Keg mK po (Tp = Tey K Ley Ned t-2 Te 103 Results under conditions of historic productivity: 1. The results of several of the projections are presented in appendix Table 1. The top panel shows GNP, GNP per capita, the rate of net investment, and per capita consumption for both of the population projections when estimated from the production function given in (la) above which embodies the 1950-1962 be- havior of the Philippine economy. GNP is greater for the nc fertility control projection up to 1977 and smaller there after until 2000. This result is due to the greater rate of increase of land in the earlier period induced by the more rapid popu- lation growth. In the latter period the more rapid investment rate, and the later imposition of the land constraint for the fertility control projection is sufficient to offset the slower rise in labor input after 1980 but not after 2000. 2. Under conditions of uncontrolled fertility, per capita GNP rises moderately (9.5%) until 1980 after which it falls as the growth of GNP 1s more than offset by the growth of the popula- tion. With controlled fertility, however, per capita GNP rises monotonically, although very slowly after 1980. The ad- vantage of fertility control 1s seen in column one of appendix Table 2 where the ratios of per capita GNP population projec- tion II to population projection I are presented. They show that by 1980 GNP per head is 4.2% higher, by 1990, 16.5% and ty 2000 38.2% higher when the rate of population growth is re- duced as a result of declining fertility (GRR 3.29, 1.49). 3. The rates of net investment net of inventory are given in the third column and show higher rates for the declining fer- tility population. Column 4 contains the consumption per male adult equivalent consumer unit. In both cases it rises only until 1975. The superiority of consumption under conditions of fertility decline is less pronounced than for GNP per head be~ ing only 17.9% by 2000 because the younger age structure of projection I is taken into account in this denominator. Results under conditions of augmented productivity: 1. It is apparent that increases in resource inputs are not the only cause of economic growth and often not even the most important cause. Increases in productivity due to improvements in resource quality, especially capital and labor quality, play an important role in the growth process. To investigate this role, the model was rerun with augmented productivity. Pro- 6. only one of the two rates of added productivity is re- ported here. 104 ductivity was made a function of gross investment ret of inven- tory and pegged to yield a rate of 1% (.5% in the omitted pro- jection) with a 16% investment rate. With the variations in investment, productivity varies from .8 to 1.32 in population projection I and from .8 to 1.44 in projecticn II. 2. The results of the simulation with augmented productivity are presented in the second panel of Table 1. As would be ex- pected, GNP is higher than under the previous condition of un- augmented productivity. One important difference, however, is seen in the GNP per capita column where the decerioration pre- vicusly evident is replaced by a consistent rise (except in 2000) even in the high fertility case. The rise in per capita GNP by the year 2000 is 43.2% and 100.4% in the constant and declining fertility projections respectively in contrast to the preceeding -16.7 and 15.2%. The ratio of population projecticn II's GNP per head to that of projection I, the advantage of fertility control, is slightly larger after 1985 in the aug- mented productivity case, see column 2 Table 2. Thus, if the Philippine economy can achieve sufficient increases in produc- tivity it can avoid the deterioration in GNP per capita pro- duced by population growth. On the other hand, a reduction in fertility would increase GNP per person to an even greater ex- tent than in the previous case, i.e., the advantages of fer- tility reduction is even greater than under conditions of low- er productivity. 3. Columns 3 and 4 present the results for net investment and consumption per male adult equivalent. The investment rates are higher at all but the initial levels. Consumption per adult unit rises until 1990 in population projection I rather than to only 1975. Furthermore it increases by 2000, to a lev- el 21.1% higher (rather than 32.5% lower) than its 1965 level. Once again the advantage of fertility control is greater the higher the rate of productivity increase. Results under conditions of augmented productivity and struc- tural shifts: 1. A second phenomenon which is occuring and is likely to continue to occur in the course of Philippine development is the achievement of structural shifts in the economy which de- crease the importance of agriculture and increase the impor- tance of manufacturing and industry. In order to show the ef- fects of this kind of change we have recomputed the projectior under various structural change conditions. Structural shifts are handled by altering the exporents on land and capital. The exponent of the former is lowered as agriculture declines in relative importance and increases on capital as industry in- 105 creases in importance. The rate of structural shift is a fun- tion of net investment n2t of inventory. Three rates of chance were computed, a low, medium, and high rate. For space reasons, only the medium rate projection in connection with the above des crived rate of productivity augmentation 1s reported here. The medium rate is one which alters the exponents by .01 per year when net investment is 10%. An upper constraint is placed upon the capital exponent of, in this case, .49. After this level is reached, no further modification in exponents occurs, The achievement of structural shifts in the economy reallocates resources from areas of low productivity to areas cf higher productivity. For this reason a productivity bonus is ax 104e4 for and is made a function of the rate of structural shift. 2. The introduction of structural shifts into the model re- Ene se conditions both GNP and GNP per capita are monotonically rising throughout the entire period for both population condi- tions. It thus appears that productivity gains coupled with ufficient structural changes enable the economy to avoid the appearance of a deterioration in output’ per person. While con- ditions improve continuously even when fertllity control is not achieved, this should not be taken as an argument against fer- tility control as the advantage of declining fertility over constant fertility 1s greater than in the previous cases. Ta- tle 2 reveals a 42.4% advantage in contrast to the 39.9% and 32.2% advantage under the previous conditions of augmented and historical productivity. Consumption per male adult equivalent SONSURET unit rises continously for the first time in both po- ulation cases (109.5% and 154.8% for the two population condi- pa Py the terminal year, consumption per unit is E 197.6 or 21.6%, higher when fertility declines are achieved than when they are not. € Conclusions 1. It appears that in the absence of fertility control, eco- nomic deterioration is likely to occur within a relatively short period. Under conditions of historic economic perfor- mance this deterioration can be partly avoided and postponed 1f fertility control begins almost immediately and prior to the deterioration. Specific efforts to improve upon historic ? “The estimate is based upon the productivity growth due to input reallocation found by Benton F. Massell, A Distarre: cated View of Technical Change, Journal of Political Economy, LXIX, 57-557. (1961) 106 performance in the form of increased productivity and acceler- ated structural shifts can offset the deterioration even when fertility remains unchecked, but under all conditions of eco- nomic performance considerable advantage, in terms of per cap- ita output and consumption, 1s apparent when fertility is con- trolled. Interestingly, this advantage increases with improved economic performance. Differences in the sources of economic growth and sources of saving also appear under the different population patterns. Space limitations, however, preclude a discussion of thesé differences and their policy implications. Apendix Table 1 Simulation Philippine Economy, 1965-2000 Historical Economic Performance (1) (2) (3) (4) GNP in Million GNP/capita Rate of Net Consumpt ion/MAECU Investment % Pop. Projection Pop. Projection Pop. Projection Pop. Projection Year 4 II I II I II I II 1965 13,696 13,696 130 430 9.1 .9.1 428 428 1970 17,039 17,039 452 452 10.1 10.1 429 429 1975 21,063 21,099 1470 476 10.5 10.6 430 432 1980 25,149 25,166 471 490 10.7 10.9 418 428 1985 28,700 28,745 1449 491 10.1 10.6 390 412 1990 132,200 32,375 421 1,91 9.5 10.4 357 396 1995 36,001 36,059 13921 492 9.1 10.4 323 381 2000 39,826 39,783 358 495 8.9 10.5 289 368 Augmented Productivity 1965 13,959 13,959 138 438 9.0 9.0 435 435 1 18/70 TUE 489 489 10.4 10.4 460 460 1975 24,435 24,376 516 552 11.2 11.2 493 496 1980 31,537 31,574 590 615 11.5 11.7 520 533 1985 39,076 39,197 612 669 11.1 11.5 529 560 1990 47,816 48,104 624 730 10.6 11.4 533 592 1995 57,978 58,492 629 798 10.2 11.3 532 630 2000 69,768 70,559 628 878 9.8 11.2 527 677 Augmented Productivity and Structural Shifts 1965 13,992 13,992 1439 439 9.0 9.0 436 436 1970 18,882 18,882 501 501 10.5 10.5 470 470 1975 26,197 26,148 585 592 11.4 11.5 526 529 1980 36,399 36,462 681 711 12.0 12.2 597 612 1985 49,821 50,135 780 856 11.9 12.3 672 713 1990 67,417 68,304 880 1,036 11.7 12.4 752 842 1995 90,147 92,033 978 1,256 11.4 12.4 833 999 2000 119,167 122,625 1,072 1,526 11.0 12.2 913 1,111 107 Table 2 Advantage of Fertility Control - GNP per Capita Ratio GNP/capita Population Projection II to GNP/capita Population Projection I Historic Performance 100.0 100.0 101.2 104.2 109.3 116.5 126.0 138.2 Avgmented Productivity 100.0 100.0 101.2 104.2 109.4 116.9 126.9 139.9 Augmented Productivity and Structural Shift 100.0 100.0 101.3 104.3 109.8 117.8 128.4 142.4 108 POPULATION GROWTH AND MANPOWER PLANNING IN ECAFE REGION SOHANLAL NAGDA Assistant Professor of Economics Hamidia Arts & Commerce College, Bhopal (M.P.) India l. The population of the ECAFE region is around 1700 million and if the present trend continued, the popula- tion of the region is expected to be 2669.3 million during the year 1980. If we take in to account the medium projections of the secretariat, then the popula- tion of the region is expected to be 2461.7 million during the year 1980. 1_/ Thus during the next twenty years period, the population of the region may increase by 969 million or 761.7 million, according to constant and medium projections respectively. The annual growth rate of population will rise from 2,4 to 2,6 percent during the decade 1970-80, if the present trend continu- ed. According to the medium projections, the rate of growth will decline to 2 percent per annum during the decade 1970-80. 2. It has been estimated by the International labour office that the total labour force of the region would increase from 735 millions during 1960 to 936 millions during 1980.2/ 3. The rapid increase in the population of the region has magnified the problem of unemployment because of rapid increase in manpower. Hence this region will be having two fold problem in future i.e, to provide employ- ment opportunities for the growing labour force and also reducing the back-log of unemployeds existing in many countries of the region. The estimated percentage of unemployment to the labour force which was already exist- ing during the year 1960 was about 9 percent for the 1/ Secretariat United Nations ECAFE, The Demographic Situa- tion and Prospective population trends in Asia anf Far East,APC/WP/1 page 38-39,Asian Population Conference 1963 New Delhi. 109 Phillippines, about 7 percent for Republic of Korea, 5 per- cent for India and 4 percent for Thailand.3/ The estimates for underemployment are not available for the region. In India it has been estimated that there are 16 million per- sons which are underemployed and are willing to undertake additional work.4/ The uptodate data regarding unemployment are not available in many countries of the region. 4. Some of the data published by the International Labour Office shows that the extent of unemployment is continously increasing in the region, For example in Burma, the regis- tered unemployment figure which was 2311 during 1956, has increased to 30796 during the year 1964. In case of Ceylon the registered unemployment which was 79630 during 1956, increased to 156003 during 1964. 5/ 5. Economically active population: of the region is below the level of semideveloped and developed countries of the world. 'Table 2'! shows that there is predominance of econ= omically active population in primary sector. When we compare with semideveloped and developed countries of the World, we find that the primary sector comparatively has lower percentage of economically active population of males i,e. 39.6 percent and 21,5 percent respectively than that of 69.7 percent in the ECAFE region. In case of females, the ECAFE region has 72.3 percent in primary sectors in comparison to 15.6 percent in semideveloped and 11.1 percent in developed regions of the world. In case of secondary and tertiary sectors, the ECAFE region is far behind the semideveloped and developed countries of the World. It is significant to note that in semideveloped € developed countries a large percentage of the female popu- lation is engaged in tertiary sector. The study of secto- ral distribution of the population of males and females 2/ International Labour Office,Projections of Populations & Labour Force, International Labour Review Vol.LXXXIII,No,4 April 1966, pp.379-381. 3/ Basilio B.Aromin, Population and Labour force Growth ín selected countries of Asia and the Far East,United Nations A.5/1/8/173, World Population Conference, Belgrade Yugoslavia 30 August to 10 September, 1985, Page 4. 4/ Planning Commission, Government of India, Fourth Five Year Plan, page 110, 1966. 110 shows that there is a great scope for increasing the participation rates of females in secondary and tertiary sector in ECAFE region. Because so far the housewives were engaged in agricultural activities and there was no other alternative to them. But now with a change in the outlook and educational improvements in females, we can expect to provide employment opportunities for females in secondary and tertiary sectors. If this change is not allowed then there is no possibility of increasing the income levels and standard of living at an early date. 6. The Sectoral distribution of the labour force of the region indicates that a majority of the labour force is engaged in agriculture. ‘The table No.1' shows the sectoral distribution of labour force during the year 1960 in different regions of the World. In comparison to the other regions of the World (except Africa), Asia is having 71 percent labour force in agricultural sector, which is much higher than the developed regions of the World. There is a great scope for increasing the perce- ntage of labour force in Industry and Services sector in this region. Because the labour force which has been increasing in the agricultural sector in Asia, has not increased the required production. On the contrary, this dependence on agricultura has created an element of un- certainty in the economy of the many countries of the region. There is a high degree of underemployment in the agricultural sector, which ultimately results in low income levels in the region. Te For reducing the unemployment or underemployment, only quantitative considerations should not be kept in view, but quality problem should be also taken in to consideration. Because of low percentage of literacy in many of the countries of the region, there is paucity of trained and technical personnel. Besides there is the problem of immobility of labour, because of some social and cultural consideration. This creates imbala- nces in supply and demand of labour. 5/ I.L.O,International Labour Review,Vol.XC No.5,Statistical Supplement, November, 1964. &/ G.S.Revankar, An Aspect of Global view of Labour Force Growth, A.5/V/E/452. United Nations World Population Conference, Belgrade, Yugoslavia, 30 August to 10 Sept.1965, age 7. 111 8. There is a need for rationalisation of manpower planning in the region. In this connection the views of Mr. G.S. Revenkar 6/ are appreciable. He is of the view that the number of jobs which need to be created can not be calculated on the basis of demographic aspects of labour force growth alone. The problem should also be studied from other angles, such as stage of industrialisation of the economy, qualitative aspects of labour force ( i.e. educational attainments, skills etc.), rate of urbaniza- tion, earnings in industrial employment vis-a-vis earnings in agricultural employment, the extent of existing under employment, charactersticks of the labour force regarding its mobility and various other social and economic aspects. 9. If the above views are taken in to consideration then there may be some hope for coordination of Manpower plann- ing with Economic and Demographic plans of the region. Other- wise the traditional way of adding to the backlog of un- employed will continue. This trend if allowed to continue may threaten the political and Economic Stability of the region. Employment Oriented Economic plans should be prepared which can promise jobs for the additional labour force. For solving the problem of underemployment, preference should be given to expansion of small scale and cottage industries in the rural areas of the region. These industries will provide additional work and will also supp- lement the income of the individuals at low investment cost. The educational plans should be prepared in such a manner, so that it may not add the persons which prefer only white collar jobs, but it should produce skilled labourers, which are required for stepping up the rate of Economic development of the region. 112 ANNEXURE TABLE41.j/ Sectoral distribution of Labour Force in different regions of the World 1960 Total labour Percentage distribution by sect. Regions. Force a eee (uillions) Agriculture. Industry. Services World. 1296 58 19 23 Africa. 112 77 9 14 North America. 77 8 39 53 Latin America. 71 48 20 32 Asia. 728 71 12 17 Europe. 191 28 38 34 Oceania. 6 23 34 43 U. S.S.R. 11. 45 28 27 i Samuel BAUM, The World's Labour Force and its Industrial Distribution, International Labour Review Vol.95,No.1-2, January-February, 1967 Page 98. TABLE? k/ Sectoral distribution of Economically Active Population in ECAFE region and developed and semideveloped countries. Countries Percent Males. Females Prim- Secon- Terti- Prim- Secon- Tert- ary. dary. ary. ary. dary. iary. -Average ECAFE 69.7 10.4 19.8 72.3 12,2 15.5 countries. -Average 8 Semi- 39.6 27,1 33.0 15.6 22,4 62.1 developed Count.l/ -Average 9 devel-21.5 43.2 35.4 11.1 28.5 60,4 oped countries .m/ k/ United Nations Bureau of Social Affairs E I.L.O. Demog rap- hic factors in problems of Manpower supply & utiTis ton in == & trar Cast At 0/ME/8,Asian Population Conference ew De 1/ Japan( 1960); sArgentina(1947); Ghana(1960);Chile(1952);Cuba 1953: ¿PuertoRico( 1960); Trinidad & Tobago( 1960); Venezuela m/ Australia(1954),Belgium(1947),Canada(1951),Dennark(1950), Germany(Federal Republic(1950),Great Britain(1951),Nether- lands(1947) ,Newzealand( 1956) ,Switzerland( 1955). 113 RECENT DEVELOPMENT IN EMPLOYMENT AND THE LABOUR FORCE IN JAPAN - ASPECTS OF TREND IN LABOUR SHORTAGE J.T. Yamaguchi, Research Scholar Department of Demography The Australian National University (1) Population, Labour Force and Employment 1. Recent changes in the deployment of Japan's labour force have been accom- panied by the gradual tightening of its supply and demand, particularly with reference to the younger productive cohorts. À number of analyses have as- serted that the rise in demand, reflecting the effects of Japan's rapid eco- nomic development since the end of the war, ultimately necessitated changes within the labour market and that the trend has been for this market to shift gradually from the stage of manpower surplus to that of manpower shortage. 1/ 2. According to the official estimates shown in Table 1, the population and the labour force both aged 15 years or more in Japan increased by approximate- ly 32 per cent over the period 1950-65. The identical percentage increase was, however, a result of the growth that was relatively more rapid for the labour force for the period 1950-60 and, in turn, for the population for the period 1960-65. In terms of the average annual growth rate, the population increased at 1.67 per cent for the former period and at 2.25 per cent for the latter pe- riod. In contrast, the size of the labour force increased at 2.24 per cent and 1.12 per cent, respectively. 3. Influenced by the rapid fertility decline after 1947, 2/ the age struc- ture of the population in Japan has been characterised by an ageing trend with I wish to acknowledge my indebtedness to Professor W.D. Borrie and Dr. R. T. Appleyard, my advisors at The Australian National University, for their com- ments and suggestions for my work on Japan's labour force and employment. My thanks are also due to Mr. Yoichi Okazaki, Institute of Population Problems, Tokyo, whose recent publication, Nihon no Rodoryoku Mondai, has been an inspi- ring guide for my study. All limitations of this paper are, however, my own responsibility. 1. E.g., Yoichi Okazaki, Nihon no Rodoryoku Mondai (Problems of Japan's La- bour Force); Mataji Umemura, Sengo Nihon no Rodoryoku (Labour Force of the Postwar Japan) and A. Koizumi and M. Shinohara, Nihon Keizai Taikei (An Out- line of Japan's Economy), Vol. III - Japan's Labour, 2. The crude birth rate declined from 34.3 per 1,000 in 1947 to 17.3 per 1,000 in 1964. Ministry of Health and Welfare, Vital Statistics 1963, Japan. 114 the result that the size of the productive-age (i.e., 15-64 years) popula- tion as a proportion of the total population has progressively increased from 59.7 per cent in 1550 to 64.3 per cent in 1960 and further to 68.1 per cent in 1965. 3/ Largely reflecting the effect of ageing, the crude activity rate estimated for the total population rose from 40.6 per cent in 1950 to 65.8 per cent in 1955 and further to 74.3 per cent in 1565. When the rates are estira- ted for the population aged 15 years or more, however, there was a decline in 1955-65, from 70.8 per cent in 1955 to 65.7 per cent in 1965. (Table 1) Age- specific participation rates did not indicate any significant changes over this period except for the age-group 15-19 years, for which the rate declined sharply from 54.3 per cent in 1955 to 37.3 per cent in 1964 for the males and from 50.1 per cent to 37.4 per cent for the females. 4/ The decrease was clear- ly attributed to the rise in school enrolment among the members of this age- groupe 4. According to the definition adopted for the Labour Force Survey, the "to- tally unemployed" denoted persons aged 15 years or more who did not work or worked but for less than an hour during the survey week, did not have a job or business but actually sought employment or were awaiting results of previous applications for work. The category did not therefore include perzons who, not having suitable opportunities, worked in "odd jobs" or jobs specially created by unemployment relief progrermes. Also excluded were persons who were unem- ployad rut did not seek employment actively during the survey week. So-called dizguised unemployment was herdly accounted for under the criteria used, even if individuals who worked, for oxcmple, two hours during the survey week were undoubtedly more of the category of the unemployed. If, however, the unemploy- ment rates estimated on the basis of the given definition are considered to have generally represented the level of unemployment, then the trend over the period 1955-65 was delineated by a continuous decline from 1.3 per cent of the labour force in 1955 to 0.8 per cent a decade later. (Table 1) 5. Whether or not the decline in unemployment hes actually reflected the ef- fect of the tightening of the relation between labour supply and demand is hard to determine. Under a circumstance of the perfect employment dyhamics, for vhich supply and demand alone are the determinants of employment or uner- ployment, the decline may be co attributed. If, on the other hand, the dyna=- mics is imperfect with unemployment resulting from, for exemple, a lack of knowledge on the part of job seekers of available opportunities rather then a lack of opportunities themselves, then the decline could be caused by improve- ment in the dissemination of job information and the facility of placement. (2) Supply and Demond of Manpower 6. 1The tightening of the relation between the supply and demand of the la- bour force in Japan can generally be quantified when employment security sta- tistics are considered. Compiled by the Public Employment Security Offices 3. Bureau of Statistics, Office of the Prime Minister, Population of Japan, 1960, Table 3.2, p. 81, and The Asahi Sinbunsha, Asahi Nenkan, 1967. 4. Bureau of Statistics, op. cit., Table 29, pp. 388-389, and Annual Report of the Labour Force Survey, Average Figures of 1964, p. 13. 115 (PESO) and edited by the Ministry of Labour since 1948, such tabulations have shown the number of job applications and job openings registered at the PESO from month to month. Information concerning the number of placements secured with the assistance of the PESO's has also been maintained, for which cross- tabulations by sex and age of new employees, industrial categories of posi- tions secured and size of establishments were also made available. Because placements also occurred through other channels, e.g., referrals by placement offices in schools, private employment agencies, personal contacts and public advertisements, the PESO records are admittedly no more than a partial account of the total flow of job applicants and job openings. Nevertheless, the ex- tent to which the PESO actually played a role of an assisting agent has not been insignificant. According to the results of special surveys conducted in 1955 and 1963, 25.4 per cent and 23.6 per cent of all placements resulted by the way of PESO assistance. Te Table 2 shows pertinent measures descriptive of the activity of the PESO's over the period 1955-63. The activity is divided into the categories of regu- lar and casual employment. The first refers to employment stipulating a con- tractual period of more than a month while the latter corresponds to that of less than a month. With reference to the first category, the number of indi- viduals seeking employment was 3.6 times as many as that of job openings re- gistered in 1955. A job scarcity was quite intensive at that time. However, the ratio decreased thereafter and ultimately fell to 0.6 by 1963. A scarcity of workers characterised the situation then. Throughout the period considered, even when there existed the job scarcity in the earlier years, not all openings became occupied. In 1955 the recruitment rate stood at 44.8 per cent of all openings. The rate sharply declined since then and fell to 9.6 per cent in 1963. Undoubtedly, some job seekers might have been selective and unwilling to settle for any openings made available. Likewise, some employers might have opted and rejected applicants with insufficient qualifications. Nevertheless, the decline in the recruitment rate shows that the increasing proportion of job openings remained vacant and the recruitment difficulties became progressively more serious during this period. With reference to the category of casual em- ployment, the position of job seekers indicated an increasingly favourable trend. The non—-placement rate somewhat fluctuated prior to 1959 but generally declined since then. 8. The extent to which the recruitment difficulties have been intensified with respect to the employment of new graduates of secondary schools is shown in changes in the ratio of job openings to job applications, both registered with the PESO, and also in changes in the recruitment rate. (Table 3) Open- ings referred to here are specifically earmarked for the new graduates and are Se Ministry of Labour, Yearbook of Labor Statistics, 1955, Table 24, p. 68, and Yearbook of Labor Statistics, 1963, Table 16, p. 28. 116 to be differentiated from openings intended for applicants who have previ- ously completed secondary education. 9. Prior to 1960 the mumber of openings already exceeded, in varying deg- rees, the number ot applications tiled by the new graduates of both second- ary and higher secondary schools. In 1960 it was 1.9 and 1.5 times more nu- merous than that of applications registered by the graduates of the respec- tive categories. The ratio continued to rise thereafter, and by 1964 it in- creased to 3.6 and 4.0. In the meantime, the placement rate, i.e., the num- ber of placements per 100 applications, increased from 85.0 per cent in 1560 to 90.5 per cent in 1964 for the graduates of secondary schools and from 68.8 per cent to 86.4 per cent for those of higher secondary schools. 6/ The re- cruitment difficulties that became progressively intensified during the pe- riod 1960-64 are clearly indicated in changes in the recruitment rate. About one half of the openings earmarked for the graduates of either category be- came occupied in 1960. The rate fell continuously thereafter, and about 75 per cent of the openings intended for the first group remained vacant in 1964 while the vacancy amounted to about 80 per cent as far as the second group was concerned. 10. The Ministry of Labour asserted recently that the growing difficulties in the recruitment of young workers necessitated employers to expand their recruitment efforts in publicising job information more widely and offering better wages and better working conditiors, and to turn elsewhere to meet their needs when a response from young applicants proved to be inadequate. Such efforts on the part of employers have tended to improve the use of avai- lable manpower among older persons and often underemployed persons living in economically less advanced regions of the country. 1/ Thus, to illustrate the first point, the number of workers aged 30 years or more entering employ- ment as a proportion of all accessions has generally been on the rise. For the establishments in the size class "100-499 workers," the proportion inc- reased from 14.3 per cent in 1956 to 19.9 per cent in 1963. Corresponding percentages for the establishments in the size class "30-99 workers" are es- timated at 22.5 per cent and 28.7 per cent for the respective years. 8/ 11. The Ministry further asserted that the recent labour development in Ja- pan was characterised by notable changes in the deployment pattern of work- ers seeking employment. As in the past, the employment preference of work- ers has generally been aligned along employment in large-scale modern indust- ries since it normally inferred better wages and better working conditions than otherwise. The rising demand of manpower has made such preference a growing reality, and the increasing proportion of new graduates and mobile 6. Ministry of Labour, Yearbook of Labor Statistics, 1962, Table 40, p. 58, and Yearbook of Labor Statistics, 1964, Table 41, p. 53. 7. Ministry of Labour, The White Paper on Labour, 1964, part I, passim. 8. Ibid., Table 4, p. 37. For the establishments in the size class "500 or more workers," the corresponding percentage changed from 12.1 in 1956 to 117 young workers has gained entries into large enterprises especially in heavy industries and petro-chemical industries. With the employment market thus becoming more competitive, the employers of smaller enterprises in other in- dustries have been left with little alternatives but to raise wages and im- prove working conditions to meet their manpower needs. Thus, a notable trend in Japan's recent labour development has been the narrowing of the gap of wa- ge differentials and differences of working conditions between industries, establishments of varying sizes and ages of workers. 12. Despite the trend to standarise wages and working conditions, however, the disparity has by no means been reduced drastically. The average monthly cash earnings of workers employed in mamufacturing establishments in the size class "5-29 workers," for example, amounted to only 58.1 per cent of the cor- responding earnings estimated for the size class "500 or more workers" in 1963. That the size of employment in the smaller establishments was hardly insigni- ficant is seen from the fact that in the same year the workforce employed in the manufacturing establishments in the class "5-29 workers" constituted 26.6 per cent of the total workforce deployed by the manufacturing industries. 9/ 13. "As in agriculture, the smaller enterprises in Japan," states Yoichi Oka- zaki, "have traditionally been a reservoir of surplus manpower squeezed out of employment at the large-scale enterprises, and because of the constant pressure exerted by excessive manpower flowing into such reservoir, the work- ing conditions within the smaller enterprises have reflected entrepreneurs! exploitative practices." 10/ If this assertion is valid, then the fact that the size of employment in the smaller establishments was not negligible in- fers that Japan's recent manpower shortages were necessarily limited in scope and that surplus situations could still be found among such establishments, (3) Disguised Unemployment and Manpower Shortage 14. As has been stated previously, the recent trend in unemployment in Ja- pan has been characterised by a continuous decline and the level of unemp- loyment stood at below one per cent of the labour force in 1962-65. (Table 1) If manpower surplus had existed in some form in recent years, it might have existed more in the form of disguised unemployment, as Yoichi Okazaki suggests, 11/ than in that of ordinary unemployment. To be sure, the latter form of unemployment represented unaccomodated manpower but only in parte Consideration of the criteria used in defining the "totally unemployed" in- dicates that some workers classified as "employed" obviously belonged to the category "underemployed" and the rest of surplus can therefore be accounted only when the first form of unemployment is considered. 9. Ministry of Labour, Yearbook of Labor Statistics, 1964, Table 9, pp. 15-17, and Table 44, pp. 60-61. 10. Yoichi Okazaki, Op. cite, Po 86. 11. Yoichi Okazaki, OD. cite, Pe 102-112. 118 15. Disguised unemployment can be measured on the basis of results of special surveys showing the tabulations of workers by income or length of working hours. Table 4 shows the number and proportion of employees of all industries whose monthly earnings amounted to less than half of the average figures estimated for all income classes according to the survey conducted in March 1965. The table also shows the age composition of such employees. 12/ Tabulations are based on the classification of employees by the "usual status" approach, and any seasonal fluctuation of earnings does not therefore affect the figures indicated. If employees thus categorised had represented disguised unemploy- ment, the size of such unemployment amounted to 15.6 per cent of the total workforce. The proportion underemployed was, moreover, age-specific and ge- nerally increased with respect to ages of the employees. The estimated per- centage for the age-group 20-24 years was 6.4, and this may be compared with the figures rising to 40.0 estimated for the age-group 65 years or more. 16. However, the observation requires a further qualification since low earn- ings might not have resulted from the fact of underemployment, in which the li- mited economic participation was neither due to the workers' wish nor lack of time and potential, but rather from their concomitant engagement in economic activities and other activities such as, for example, studying or house-keep— ing. The latter case hardly connotated limited economic participation since such workers did not desire additional work and did not have any intention to work and earn more by own choice. The percentage indicated for the age-group 15-19 years might have significantly been affected by this factor. The fi- gures estimated for the groups 20-24 and 25-29 years might also have been in- fluenced likewise since some female employees plausibly played a dual role of housewife on the one hand and part-time worker:on the other. However, the age characteristics of disguised unemployment have generally been confirmed: by Yo- ichi Okazaki who has noted its increase with respect to ages of the employees in his 177 of the age structure of workers wishing additional work in 1965. 1 17. As far as the length of working hours was concerned, the average figure amounted to 47.6 hours a week among employees who actually worked any length of time in 1964. 14/ If employees working less than 35 hours a week are de- signated to comprise the underemployed, then there were approximately 7.8 mil. lion employees falling into this category in that year, accounting 16.8 per cent of the working employees of all industries. According to the age distri- bution of the underemployed thus classified, (Table 5) those aged 30 years or 12. Bureau of Statistics, Office of the Prime Minister, "Report on the Spe- cial Survey of the Labour Force Survey as of March 1965," Labour Force Series, No. 19, pp. 40-41. 13. Yoichi Okazaki, op. cit., pp. 108-112, 14. Estimated on the basis of data published in, Bureau of Statistics, Office of the Prime Minister, Annual Report on the Labour Force Survey, Average Fi- ures of 1964, Table 18, pp. 80-81. 119 more comprised 76 per cent of the total of the underemployed. Once again, the percentages shown for the age-group 15-19 years and the two successive age-groups might particularly have been affected by the inclusion of some workers holding a dual role. All the more, however, a heavy concentration of the disguised unemployment among older workere then becomes evident since percentages shown for the younger age-groups might have been inflated. (4) Prospects of Manpower Shortage - À Demographic View 18. Whether or not the current trend in manpower shortages will be inten- sified in the near future depends entirely upon future changes in the level of manpower supply and demand. Viewed from the supply side, prospects are that in all likelihood the intensification will follow up to 1980 at least. This is because the size of the past birth cohorts has continuously decreased since about 1950 and the members of such cohorts who have and will have sur- vived to working ages are likely to become less numerous over the years up to 1980. The size of the birth cohorts varies from approximately 2.7 million births a year in 1947-49 to about 1.6 million a year in 1960-63. 15/ Accord- ing to the population projections prepared by the Institute of Population Pro- blems in 1960, 16/ the population aged 15-64 years (i.e., the productive-age population) is shown to increase from 67.3 million in 1965 to 77.0 million in 1980. Its increase rate is projected to fall to 0.59 per cent per annum over the period 1975-80, however, and this may be contrasted to 2.17 per cent per annum estimated for the period 1960-65. The significant aspect of the population growth is that the population aged 15-19 years is shown to dec- rease numerically from 1965 and that the decline will also commence for the age-groups 20-24 years and 25-29 years from 1970 and 1975, respectively. (Ta- ble 6) Thus, for example, the size of the first group is projected to fall from 11 million in 1965 to 9 million in 1970 and further to 7.7 million in 1980. 19. The numerical decline thus projected indicates that the maximum limit of the number of potential workers represented in such young age-groups will con- sequently be lowered. Moreover, the mumber of persons particularly of the age-group 15-19 years who actually will be able to participate in economic ac- tivity will also become less numerous if there follows a further increase in the school enrolment at the secondary and tertiary levels. As has been shown previously, the recent situation with reference to the relation between man- power supply and demand was already characterised by the excessive demand and the difficulties in the recruitment of young workers were already quite consi- derable. Unless the demand slackens substantially, the difficulties will the- refore be further intensified because of the decline in supply envisaged. Un- der such circumstances, the employers' recruitment efforts will have to be directed increasingly more toward the deployment of all other umused resources. 15. Ministry of Health and Welfare, Ope. cite, Vol. 1, Table 3.1, Pe 46. 16. Institute of Population Problems, "Future Population Estimates for Ja- pan by Sex and Age," Research Series, No. 138 (August 1960). 120 Better use of the labour potential of the unemployed, underemployed and ever economically inactive may be a growing necessity though this could prove to be a difficult, slow and costly undertaking since a significant porticn of such persons may have to be re-trained and special arrangements may have to be made in order to permit the economically inactive to engage actively. Pos- sibilities of further increasing labour productivity can be examined and in- corporated if feasible despite the fact that this can alleviate the situation only in a limited degree. Notwithstanding limitations of various ways by which the intensification of manpower shortages can be counteracted, it is a matter of great pertinence that all measures and policies be considered and enacted in coping with the problems which otherwise will be a serious obsta- cle for Japan's future economic development. Appendix 1. Tables Table 1. Estimates of Population and Labour Force, and Activity and Unemployment Rates in Japan, 1950-65 a/ (For ages 15 years or more) Population Labour Force Activity Unemploy- Total Employed employed rate ment reto (000) (000) (000) (ro00) (%) (4) 1950 b/ 55,240 36,160 35,720 440 65.5 1.2 1955 59,250 41,940 41,190 760 70.8 1.8 1960 65,200 45,110 44,610 500 69.2 1.1 1961 66,030 45,620 45,180 440 69.1 1.0 1962 67,550 46,140 45,740 400 68.3 0.9 1963 69, 380 46,520 46,130 400 67.1 0.9 1964 71,220 47,100 46,730 370 66.1 0.8 1965 72,870 47,870 47,480 390 65.7 0.8 Source: Ministry of Labour, Yearbook of Labor Statistics, 1 Table 2, pp. 6-7, The White Paper on Labour, 1964, Appendix, Table 4, and Monthly Labour Statistics and Research Bulletin, Vol. 18, No. 10 (October 19 ’ Table 4, Pe 36. a. Estimates of the labour force are averages of the monthly fig- ures obtained from the Labour Force Surveys. Labour force status is classified on the basis of the actual status approach. Because of rounding, the total figures are not always the sum of those of the employed and unemployed. be. For ages 14 years or more. 121 Table 2. Activity of Public Employment Security Office, 1955-63 a/ Regular Employment Casual Employment Active ap- Active ope- Place- Applic./ Recruit- Non- - plications nings ments openings ment rate placement (*000) (*000) (+000) rate (%) 1955 1,283 353 158 3.6 44.8 16.4 1956 1,199 458 188 2.6 41.1 13.8 1957 1,180 572 207 2.1 36.2 12.5 1958 1,407 547 212 2.6 38.7 15.0 1959 1,341 680 229 2.0 33.6 12.8 1960 1,191 881 229 1.4 26.0 11.8 1961 1,139 1,093 219 1.0 20.1 11.7 1962 1,211 1,224 213 1.0 17.4 10.9 1963 1,501 2,362 227 0.6 9.6 11.3 Source: Ministry of Labour, The White Paper on Labour, 1964, Appendix, Table 14, pp. 306-307. a. Including figures relating to the new graduates of secondary and tertiary schools. The registration system was re-organised in 1962 and because of this the 1963 figures are not strictly compa- rable with those of earlier years. The recruitment rate denotes the number of placements per 100 active openings, and the non- placement rate is the number of total "idle" man-hours per 100 man-hours of casual employment applied. Table 3. FESO Activity for New Graduates of Secondary and Higher Secondary Schools, 1960-64 a/ Secondary School Higher Secondary Graduates School Graduates Source: Ministry Openings/ Recruit- Openings/ Recruit- of Labour, Tear applic. ment rate(%) applic. ment rate (%) istics. 1962, Ta- 1 . 1960 1.9 43.7 1.5 47.2 e Au 1961 2.7 31.4 2.0 37.2 Statistics, 1964, 1662 2.9 29.6 2.7 30.1 Table 41, p. 53 1963 2.6 32.9 2.7 30.3 palais 1064 3.6 25.3 4.0 21.6 a. Assessed as of 30 June, which is approximately three months from the time of graduation. New graduates are normally 15 and 18 years of age at the completion of secondary and higher secondary schools. The recruit- ment rate is defined to represent the number of placements per 100 open- ings. 122 Table 4. Number and Proportions of Employees Earning Less Than Half of Average Income by Age — All Industries a/ Assessed at March 1965 All income class Less than half avera- ge income Less than half avera- ge income Av. monthly income Sourcet a. Total 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-54 55-64 65 or more Number (in 10,000) 2,676 285 560 408 344 330 547 161 40 418 25 36 38 53 60 143 47 16 Proportion (in $ of all income class) 15.6 8.7 6.4 9.3 15.4 18.2 26,1 29.2 40,0 Amount (in 10,000 yen) 38.9 18,4 25.8 135.6 43.6 48.1 52.6 52.4 146.6 Bureau of Statistics, Office of the Prime Minister, "Report on the Special Survey of the Labour Force Survey," Labour Force Series, No. 19, Table 16, pp. 40-41. Excluding persons with job but not at work presently. Unpaid family workers are also excluded. Employees referred to here in- clude directors, ordinary employees and temporary and casual work- ers. Table 5. Age Distribution of Employed Persons Work- ing Less Than 35-Hours weekly a/ All Industries in 1964 (In #) All ages 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-39 40-54 55-64 65 or more 100,0 7.2 7.7 9.2 21.1 25.5 16.6 13,0 Source: a. Bureau of Statistics, Office of the Prime Minister, Annaul Re- rt on the Labour Force Survey, Average Figures of 1564, Ta- ble 18, PP. 80-81. Self-employed, unpaid family workers and paid employees all of whom were actually at work. 123 Table 6. Survivors among Infants Born in 1945-65 a/ (In '000) Age 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 0-4 11,205 9,248 17,842 17,769 ... ve ... 5-9 ... 11,043 9,220 7,819 7,714 ... see 10-14 ... ... 10,961 9,108 7,7956 17,693 ... 15-19 ... ... eee 10,960 79,079 17,772 1,670 20-24 ... ... ave eee 10,903 9,037 7,736 25-29 eee ... see ... ... 10,837 8,982 30-34 ... ... ... eee ... ... 10,764 Source: Bureau of Statistics, Office of the Prime Minister, Population of Japan, 1960, Summary of the Results of 1960 Population Cen- sus of Japan, Tables 3.2 and 19. Also, Institute of Population Problems, "Future Population Estimates for Japan by Sex and Age," Research Series, No. 138 (August 1960). a. Estimates are for 1 October and survivors actually refer to in- fants born between 1 October 1945 and 30 September 1965. Appendix 2, Selected Bibliography Government Publications Bureau of Statistics, Office of the Prime Minister, Tokyo. 1. Population of Japan, 1960, Sub-title: Summary of the Results of 1960 Population Census of Japan, Tokyo (1963). 2. Annual Report of the Labour Force Survey, Sub-title: Average Fi- gures of 1964, Tokyo (1965). 3. "Report on the Special Survey of the Labour Force Survey as of March 1965," Labour Force Series, No. 19, Tokyo (1965). Ministry of Health and Welfare, Tokyo. 4. Health and Welfare Statistics Division, Vital Statistics 1963, Japan, Vol. 1, Tokyo (1965). 5. Institute of Population Problems, "Future Population Estimates for Japon by Sex and Age," Research Series, No. 138, Tokyo (August 1960). Ministry of Labour, Tokyo. 6. Ministry of Labour od) The White Paper on Labour, 1964, Ro- dohorei Kyokai, Tokyo (1964). 124 T. Labour Statistics and Research Division, Monthly Labour Sta- tistics and Research Bulletin, Vol. 18, No. 10, Tokyo (October 1966). 8. Labour Statistics and Research Division, Year Book of Labor Statistics, Issues for years 1955, 1959, 1962, 1963 and 1964. Non-Governmental Publications 9. Japanese National Commission for Unesco, Manual of Demogra- hic Statistics in Japan, Japanese National Commission for Unesco, Tokyo (1958). 10. Koizumi, Akira, and Miyohei Shinohara. (eds.), Nihon Keizai Taikei (An Outline of the Economy of Japan), Vol. III, "Nihon no Rodo" (Japanese Labour), Seirin Shoin Shinsha, Tokyo (1964). 11. Nomura, Toshio, Nihon no Rodotokei, Mikata remata e al of Labour Statistics in Japan), Rodohorei Kyokai, Tokyo (1966). 12. Okazaki, Yoichi, Nihon no Rodoryoku Mondai (Problems of the —Labour Force in Japan), Kobun-Sha, Tokyo (1966). 13. Umemura, Mataji, Sengo Nihon no Rodoryoku (Labour Force in Postwar Japan), Economic Research Series, Hitotsubashi University, No. 13, Iwanami Shoten, Tokyo (1964). 125 * A Projection of the Labour Force in Malaya By G. W. Jones, The Population Council, New York 1. Malaya's history during the past century has been profoundly influ- enced by problems of labour supply and demand. During most of the period, there was an acute shortage of labour to work the newly opened tin mines and rubber estates, a shortage relieved by the immigration of Chinese and Indian workers on such a massive scale that they came in time to outnumber the formerly predominant Malays.! The Depression of the 1930's caused a severe oversupply of labour, especially on the rubber estates, but its impact was dulled by the repatriation of Indians to their homeland. The ravages of World War II left the economy again short of labour in the postwar years. 2. This shortage did not last long. But this time it was eliminated, not by migration, but by demographic trends within Malaya itself: the maturing of the large cohorts born locally after the war, which had suffered much less attrition through infant mortality than their prewar counterparts. By the early 1960's, the problem of the rapidly-growing labour force and high rates of unemployment was causing great concern. The Singapore planners, for example, stated quite bluntly that the main object of the 1961-64 Development Plan was to increase employment opportunities. 2 * This paper is based largely on research conducted by the writer between 1963 and 1966 in the Department of Demography, Australian National University, and presented in an unpublished Ph.D. thesis. In this paper the term "Malaya" is taken to include the former Federation of Malaya as well as the State of Singapore. Although these two areas are now separated politically they form essentially one economic unit. Where the term "The Federation" is used, it refers to the former Federation of Malaya. A considerable number of Javanese workers also immigrated. They were assimilated in time into the Malay community. 2 State of Singapore, Development Plan 1961-64, Government Printer, Singapore (1961), p. 33. —_ = 126 3. The writer has carried out detailed projections of the labour force by age, sex and race up.to 1977.3 The two requirements for such a pro- jection were a component projection of the population and a projection of age-sex specific activity rates, both carried out for each of the three main racial groups. Only one population projection was computed for each race, because mortality is expected to decline in a fairly predictable fashion, and because alternative fertility assumptions would begin to affect the size of the labour force only near the end of the projection period. Assumptions 4. The projections were based on adjusted age distributions for the 1957 Census. A set of estimated age-specific birth rates for each race in 1957 was calculated by raising Caldwell's estimates slightly to take some account of Saw Swee Hock's higher estimate of underregistration of births in the Fed- eration.° Changes in these rates to 1962 were calculated from births regis- tered in 1962, taking account of underregistration and assuming an unchanged pattern of age-specific fertility rates. Further steady decline were projected for the period to 1977. Fertility was projected to decline, for Chinese, by three per cent per annum until 1967 and by two per cent per annum thereafter; for Malays, by one per cent per annum throughout the entire period; and for Indians, by 1.5 per cent per annum throughout the entire period. Caldwell's assumptions of a steady decline in mortality for all races were adopted, and net migration was assumed to be nil.6 5. Projected age-sex specific activity rates for each race then had to be applied to the projected populations. The usual method of projecting activity rates is to extrapolate past trends in these rates for each sex-age group, See G. W. Jones The Growth of Malaysia's Labour Force, unpublished Ph.D. thesis, Australian National University, Canberra (1966). 4 . See Ibid., appendix 3A, for a much fuller discussion of the methodology summarized in this paragraph. 5 See J. C. Caldwell, The Population of Malaya, unpublished Ph.D. thesis, Australian National University, Canberra (1962), pp. 234 and 490-1, and Saw Swee Hock, A Note on the Under -Registration of Births in Malaya during the Intercensal Period 1947-1957, Population Studies, Vol XY/No./ _, (1964). 6 By 1962, this had led to an overestimate of the Indian population by about two per cent, as there was anet emigration of Indian males. 127 incorporating any modifications which may appear necessary in the light of likely trends in underlying variables such as the structure of the economy and school participation rates. This method could not be used for Malaya, as age-specific activity rates were not available for any year before 1957. Other, more indirect, methods therefore had to be used, and their sophistica- tion was severely limited by the lack of data. 6. The most recent year for which data on activity rates in both the Federation and Singapore were available was 1957. It was therefore necessary to use these data from the 1957 Censuses as the base for projecting activity rates. Comparison of these rates with those recorded in the Federation's 1962 sample survey of employment and unemployment (hereafter referred to as the 1962 Employment Survey), 7 and those in a number of other countries, 8 pointed up a few questionable features of the 1957 rates for the Federation. In particular, a. activity rates for males aged 15-19 were rather low as compared with other developing countries; b. activity rates for females at all ages were rather low as compared with those recorded in the 1962 Employment Survey, even allowing for some rise in these rates over the five-year period. In both cases, the wording of the question on employment status in the Federation of Malaya's Census and the somewhat unorthodox reference period adopted for this question appeared to be partly responsible? The 1962 Employment Survey adopted the now fairly standard one week reference period and a tighter definition of labour force status. 7. As the projection of activity rates was based on the 1957 definitions, the projected labour force is somewhat smaller than it would have been had the 1962 Employment Survey been used as the base for the Federation. However, the rates of growth of the labour force should have been little affected. 7 The full title is Report on Employment, Unemployment and Under- Employment 1962, Department of Labour and Industrial Relations, Department of Statistics, Kuala Lumpur (1963). 8 United Nations, Demographic Aspects of Manpower. Reportl. Sex and Age Patterns of Participation in Economic Activities, New York (1962). = 7 In particular, many of those classified as Unemployed in 1962 would have been excluded from the labour force altogether by a correct application of the 1957 definitions. But this can account for only part of the discrepancy. See Jones, op. cit., Appendix 4B. 128 8. The following methods of projecting male activity rates were chosen: a. For males aged 20-55, the percentage economically active was assumed to remain at its 1957 level, because worldwide experience shows that this percentage does not normally alter very much. b. Activity rates for males aged 10-14 and 15-19 were projected by means of multiple regression equations, calculated by the United Nations from data for a numb er of countries, 10 which related activity rates at these ages to’ the percentage in school at these ages and the proportion of the economically active males engaged in agriculture. Cc. Activity rates for males aged 55-64 and over were projected by means of regression equations, also calculated by the United Nations, relating these rates to the percentage of the economically active males engaged in agri- culture. 11 In both a and b the rates so calculated in each year were adjusted by the ratio of the 1957 activity rate actually recorded in Malaya to the rate obtained for 1957 from the regression equation. d. The activity rate for maies aged 20-24 was projected by assuming that the sum of the proportion attending school and the proportion economically active in this age group would rise linearly from 96.2 per cent of the total males in this age group in 1957 to 98 per cent in 1977. This was to allow for a declining proportion of males who are neither in school nor in the workf orce, as economic development proceeds. 9. The methods adopted called for projections of the proportion of males in the relevant age groups attending educational institutions, and the proportion of the male labour force employed in agriculture. These are shown in Table 1. The methods used in these projections cannot be elaborated here, but they were based on an analysis of past trends and factors affecting future trends in the variables -- for example, analysis of the various kinds of land settlement taking place in Malaya, and the employment objectives for different industries in the economic plans; and a critical evaluation of the effects on school enrolments, of the abolition of the Malayan Secondary School Entrance Examination in 1964. 10 United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Branch, Population Growth and Manpower in the Philippines, New York (1960), pp. 55-6. 11 Ibid. 12 Jones, op. cit., Appendices 4c and SA. 129 10. Female activity rates are far more difficult to project than male, especially in a region such as Malaya that is undergoing rapid urbanization and social change. Activity rates for females differ widely between the races and, for each race, between rural and urban areas. A detailed study of female activity rates led to the prognostication that activity rates for both Malay and Indian females will decline as the population of these races becomes more urbanized, and adopts the much lower activity rates characteristic of their race in urban areas. However, activity rates for females of all races in urban areas are at the same time expected to be rising, particularly in the 15-19 year age group and most strongly in the 20-24 year age group. 13 11. The only satisfactory method for projecting activity rates for females was to project them separately for each racial group in both rural and urban 4 i ; ‘; : areas. This involved estimating activity rates in urban and rural areas in 1957 from data on activity rates by state. 15 It was then assumed that the rates for each race in rural areas will remain constant throughout the projection period, except that rates in the 10-14 year age group were projected to decline by 20 per cent by 1977, as a result of increased proportions in school in this age group. 12. The changes projected in the urban rates for each race were determined with the aid of graphs, the percentage change selected in each age group being that which gave the most "likely" activity rate in 1977 as suggested by a study of factors likely to affect these rates. The projected percentage increases in activity rates in urban areas are greatest for the Malays, but because the Malay rates were extremely low in 1957, the absolute increases in the younger age groups are greater for the Chinese. Although quite substantial increases in the rates for the younger working-age groups are projected for each race, the projections are fairly conservative in that even the Chinese rates at these ages projected for 1977 are well below those in most industrialized countries around 1960. 13 Ibid., pp. 189-210; G. W. Jones, Female Participation in the Labour Force in a Plural Economy: the Malayan Example, Malayan Economic Review, Vol. X, No. 2, 61-82 (1965). 14 For the method of projecting the urban and rural population, see Jones, The Growth of. . ., op. cit., ch. 4. 15 Ibid., pp. 207-9. 130 Results of the Projection 13. Table 2 gives the projected labour force, by sex, during the period 1957 to 1977. Clearly, the rate of growth of the labour force has been accelerating rapidly, and this growth is expected to exceed 17 per cent in each of the quinquennial periods 1967-72 and 1972-77. The rate of growth reached three per cent per annum in about 1966 and is expected to level off at 3.3 or 3.4 per cent per annum in the 1970's. 14. The female labour force should grow throughout more rapidly than the male because the dampening effect of changing activity rates on the growth of the labour force should not be as great for females as for males. This is demonstrated in Table 3, which shows the respective effects of what might be termed the "demographic" and the "activity rate" factors behind the labour force trends. The changes in column (2) are caused by demographic factors and would take place if activity rates did not alter up to 1977; the projected changes in column (1) vary from these because of the effect of the expected changes in activity rates, which are shown in column (3). For males, the labour force in 1977 is expected to be about 214, 000 smaller than it would have been in the absence of changes in activity rates. More than half of this “activity rate" effect will be accounted for in the 15-19 year age group; in the absence of the "activity rate effect" the number economically active in this age group would have increased by almost as many as in the 25-29 year age group, but in the event, its increase is expected to be only half as great. 15. For females, the effects of changing activity rates are expected to be more complex, raising the numbers economically active at ages 15-34 years above the figure they would have reached through demographic factors alone, but lowering the numbers in all other age groups. In total, changing fertility rates are expected to dampen slightly the increase in the female workforce resulting from demographic trends. 16. The factors behind the trends in the female workforce bear rather closer examination. Table 4 isolates these factors in more detail. Columns (1) and (2) are the same as in Table 3. Activity rates will change, firstly, because a higher proportion of working-age females will be living in urban areas by 1977. Column (3) of Table 4 shows the effect of this, on the assumption that urban and rural activity rates will not alter. The effect would be to depress the increase in the workforce in all except the 30-34 year age group, because urban activity rates were lower in 1957 than rural. However, activity rates in rural and urban areas will not remain constant over the period, and columns (4) and (5) 131 show the expected effects of changes in these rates. 16 These effects are to raise considerably the number of workers in age groups 15-34, and to deplete somewhat the numbers of workers in most other age groups. In total, the effect of rising activity rates in urban areas will almost cancel out the effect of the increasing proportion of females living in urban areas, with their lower activity rates. 17. Table 5 shows the percentage age distribution of the projected work- force. Both the male and female workforce will become somewhat more youth- ful by 1977. The age structure of the male labour force will not alter drastically, because the "demographic effects" tending to heighten the importance of the 10-24 year age group will be largely offset by the "activity rate effects." For females, however, the share of the 10-24 year age group in the workforce will increase from 36.3 per cent in 1957 to 42.6 per cent in 1977. Problems and Prospects: 18. The rapid acceleration in the growth of the labour force in the late 1950's and 1960's is brought out in Table 6. The labour force has begun to grow more rapidly than the population as a whole during the last year or two, for the first time since before the Great Depression. This trend will continue throughout the next decade. The reason is, of course, that the growth of population is being slowed by the steady decline in the birth rate and the growth of the labour force is being accelerated as the large birth cohorts of the early postwar period reach working age. Insofar as it means a decline in the dependency ratio, the present trend is all to the good; but if the growing labour force cannot be absorbed into productive employment, any lightening of the dependency load will be more apparent than real. 19. Rates of unemployment and underemployment in Malaya have been seriously high for a number of years, even though economic growth over the past decade has been impressive and substantial areas of reasonably fertile land remain untapped. Output has grown considerably more rapidly than employment in industries such as manufacturing and transportation and in the main agricultural sector--the rubber . industry. This is not to be decried; it is one of the best indications that economic 16 The expected charges in rural activity rates, except in the 10-14 year age group, will be caused not by any changes in activity rates for each racial group in the rural areas, but by changes in the racial composition of the rural population, which will give slightly more weight to the Malay and Indian population vis-a-vis the Chinese. 17 See Jones, The Growthof . . . , Op. cit., ch. 7. 132 development is taking place. However, it does point up one of Malaya's crucial problems. At the very time when the rate of growth of the labour force is reaching an extremely high plateau of about 3.3 per cent per annum, what Malaya essentially needs is not more workers but rather better-trained workers, adapted to a rapidly modernizing economy. The main rice areas, for example, would be better off with fewer workers, larger holdings and more advanced techniques. 20. Surveys conducted in 1962, 1964, and 1965 show that unemployment rates i8 the five largest towns of the Federation have not been rising since 1962. This evidence must be interpreted cautiously, but on the reasonable assumption that there is a fairly constant relationship between underutilization of the available labour force in cities and elsewhere, we can infer that under- utilization of labour in Malaya as a whole did not worsen during this period, even though the growth of the labour force was accelerating rapidly. If this is so, it must be attributed to the healthy growth of the economy and the opening of extensive areas of new land. ! 21. As already mentioned, the labour force would have increased even more rapidly had it not been for herculean efforts to raise the proportion of the eligible population receiving schooling. These efforts are therefore benefiting the economy in two ways: first, they are "damping" the growth of the labour force during the crucial period when successively larger cohorts are reaching working age; secondly, they are ensuring that each year's entrants to the work- force are better educated than those of the previous year, and hence better placed to find productive employment in a rapidly-diversifying economy. 18 See Report on Employment and Unemployment in Metropolitan Towns, States of Malaya, 1965; Department of Statistics, Kuala Lumpur (1965). 19 The federal government' land settlement schemes have not succeeded in settling as many people as hoped; however, many people have received land through schemes organized by the various state governments or through private land settlement. It is very difficult to obtain information on these activities. 133 TABLE Malaya. Percentage of Male Labour Force Employed in Primary Industries and of Males of Various Ages Attending Educational Institutions, 1957-77 Percentage of Male Labour Percentage of Males in Force in Primary Industries Schools in Age Groups: 10-14 15-19 20-24 1957 47.2 80.7 26.7 3.6 1962 43.7 72.7 35.9 4.3 1967 41.2 81.9 42.0 5.9 1972 38.8 83.8 45.5 6.9 1977 36.2 88.0 48.0 75 TABLE 2. Projected Increase in Labour Force, 1957-77 (all figures in '000s) 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 —— — 1957-62 1962-67 1967-72 1972-77 BOTH SEXES Total labour force 2,645 2,940 3,384 3,977 4,690 Increase 295 444 593 713 % Increase 11.1 15.1 17.5 17.9 MALES Total labour force 2,029 2,241 2,558 2,988 3,514 Increase 212 317 430 526 % Increase 10.5 14.1 16.8 17.6 FEMALES Total labour force 616 699 826 989 1,176 Increase 82 128 163 187 % Increase 13.4 18.3 19.7 18.9 134 TABLE 3. Malaya. Projected Change in Numbers in the Workforce in Each Age Group, 1957-77, and Estimates of Components of Change, by Sex MALES Change due to Change Change in numbers Change in Age Group 1957 to 1977 in age group activity rate (1) (2) (3) ('000s) ('000s) ('000s) 10-14 + 7 + 45 — 38 15-19 +148 +275 -127 20-24 +327 +344 - 17 25-29 +299 +299 0 30-34 +177 +177 0 35-39 +136 +136 0 40-44 + 92 + 22 0 45-49 + 59 + 59 0 50-54 + 47 + 52 - 5 55-59 + 51 + 54 - 3 60-64 + 59 + 62 - 3 65+ + 84 +105 - 21 All ages +1, 486 +1, 700 214 FEMALES 10-14 + 15 + 34 - 19 15-19 +131 +119 + 12 20-24 +132 +119 + 12 25-29 + 80 +103 + 29 30-34 + 41 + 37 + 4 35-39 + 38 + 46 - 8 40-44 + 33 + 44 - 11 45-49 + 26 + 37 - 11 50-54 + 18 + 27 - 9 55-59 + 19 + 25 - 6 60-64 + 14 + 17 - 3 65+ + 14 + 16 - 2 All ages +560 +576 - 16 TABLE 4. Malaya. Detailed Estimate of Cemponents of Change in Numbers in the Female Workforce in Each Age Group, 1957-772 Change due to Movement to urban Change Change in numbers areas with lower Change in rural Change in urban Age Group 1957-77 in age group activity rate? activity rate activity rate (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) ('000s) ('000s) (“000s) (*000s) ('000s) 10-14 + 15 + 34 - 4 - 7 - 8 15-19 +131 +119 — 10 + 2 + 20 20-24 +132 +103 - 12 + 6 + 35 25-29 + 80 + 72 - 12 + 6 + 15 30-34 + 41 + 37 0 + 2 + 2 35-39 + 38 + 46 - 9 + 1 0 40-44 + 33 + 44 - 7 - 3 - 2 45-49 + 26 + 37 - 5 - 2 - 3 50-54 + 18 + 27 - 3 - 2 - 4 55-59 + 19 + 5 - 3 0 - 3 60-64 + 14 + 17 - 2 0 - 1 65 + + 14 + 16 - 2 0 0 Total +560 +576 - 69 + 2 + 51 a Because of rounding, sub-totals do not always agree exacuy with totals b Activity rates used in calculating this column were those prevailing in urban areas at the beginning of the period. GET 136 TABLE 5. Malaya. Percentage Age Distribution of the Projected Workforce, 1957-77 MALES Age Group 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 10-14 1.9 2.5 2.2 1.9 1.3 15-24 25.7 25.3 26.4 28.5 28.4 25-44 45.0 44.1 44.1 43.9 46.0 45 + 27.4 28.1 27.4 25.7 24.3 FEMALES 10-14 4.5 5.4 4.8 4.4 3.6 15-24 31.8 31.8 34.8 38.4 39.0 25-44 41.3 39.7 38.4 36.9 37.9 45 + 22.5 23.1 21.9 20.3 19.5 TABLE 6. Malaya. Quinquennial Increase in Male and Total Labour Force and Totai Population, i921-77 (per cent) Period Male labour force Total labour force Total population 1921-31% 7.8 5.0 14.2 1931-472 0.0 1.6 9.4 1947-572 6.1 7.4 14.9 1957-62 10.5 11.1 18.3 1962-67 14.1 15.1 117.0 1967-72 16.8 17.5 16.7 1972-77 17.6 17.9 16.8 a Average quinquennial rates 137 POPTILATION AND LABOUR FORCE GROWTH IN THAILAND by V.R.K.Tilak, ILO Adviser on Manpower - and Prom Panitchpakdi, Director, Manpower Planning Office National Economic Development Board Bangkok, Thailand* le In the context of economic planning, a projection of population is of vital importance as the targets of economic growth are closely related to the future size and structure of the population. A popu- lation projection also provides the base for an estimate of the future increase in the labour force which is taken into account in deciding the employment targets of a Plan. In the formulation of the Second Five Year Plan of Economic and Social Development of Thailand(1966-71) the projections of population and the labour force have been given due attention. The population and labour force growth have been analysed not only for the duration of the Plan but also for the next 15 years to facilitate perspective planninge It is the purpose of this paper to examine the implications of population growth in Thailand on the future size of the labour force and the new entrants to the labour market. Projection of Population 2. According to the 1960 Census, the total population of Thailand was 26.2 million. From an analysis of the Census results, it was estimated that the birth rate was around 45 and the death rate around 13 per thousand population resulting in a growth of 3.2 percent per annum. Since the 1960 Census, there has been no indication of a sig- nificant change in the birth rate, and this is confirmed by the pre- liminary results of the Population Growth Estimation Surveys conducted by the National Statistical Office. 3. The population of Thailand has been projecteal for the period 1966-81 on the basis of two assumptions; Projection I is based on the assumption of constant fertility and Projection II on the assumption * The opinions expressed in this paper are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent those of the organizations of which they are members. 1 Menon,P.S.(ECAFE), A note on the Population projection of Thailand (unpublished)Bangkok, 1966. 138 of declining fertility starting from 1970 and resulting in a fall in the birth rate by 1/3 during the period 1970-85. In either case, it is assumed that there will be a moderate decline in mortality involv- ing an annual increase of J: year in the expectation of life at birth. Between 1966 and 1981 the population will increase from 33.2 million to 55.2 million according to Projection I and to 51.2 million according to Projection II. In view of the assumptions involved, there will be no marked difference in the total population during the Second Plan period (1966-71) between the two projections, although there will be some difference during the subsequent Plan periods. For the purpose of planning, however, Projection II has been adopted, based on which the size of the future population is estimated as follows: Table 1 Population (in millions) Year Male Female Total 1966 16.6 16.6 33.2 1971 19.6 19.6 39.2 1976 22.8 22.3 45,1 1981 25.9 25.3 51.2 4, The above projection implies that the population of Thailand will increase at the rate of 3.3 percent per annum during the Second Plan period (1966-71), 3.0 percent during 1971-76 and 2.0 percent during 1976-81. The age distribution of the population will improve to some extent and the proportion of the population aged 15 years and over will increase from 54.2 percent in 1966 to 58.2 percent in 1981. Projection of the Labour Force 5. For a projection of the labour force, it is necessary to make assumptions regarding the future labour force participation rates by age and sex which could be applied to the population projection. In this connection, we may examine the labour force participation rates as revealed by the 1960 Census. According to the Census, the economically active population aged 11 years and over was 13.8 million representing 52.7 percent of the total population. This comprised 54,3 percent of the total male population and 51.1 percent of the total female population. While the labour force participation rate among males is not unusual, the corresponding rate among females is the highest recorded among Asian countries, the next in order of magnitude being 39.6 percent in Japan (1965), 27.9 percent in India (1961), 22.8 percent in Philippines (1965) and Hongkong (1961) and 22.4 percent in 139 Korea (1965) .2 In fact there are very few countries in the world” which reported such a high rate of labour force participation in re- spect of females as Thailand. A comparison of the labour force par- ticipation rates between males and females of Thailand shows that the rates are higher among females below 15 years of age and in the age group 15-19, while there is little difference in the age group 20-24, The result is that the proportion of the labour force to the total population in Thailand is the highest in Asia with only a few paral- lels in the world.* 6. It may be observed from the above that Thailand presents a some- what unique position in regard to women's participation in the labour force,? To what extent this represents the real situation has to be examined. It would appear that the situation is partly real and partly a result of the concepts and definitions used in the Population Census. It is real in the sense that women do play a significant role in economic activities, both agricultural and non-agricultural. In agriculture, which employs 80 percent of the total working population, women play an important part. This is particularly so in view of the plurality of employment structure in agriculture in Thailand where the members of agricultural households, especially men, supplement their income through non-agricultural activities during slack periods, perhaps entrusting their womenfolk with the agricultural operations. In non-agriculture, it is quite common that the women of Thailand play an important role particularly in Commerce and Services. This is cor- roborated by the results of the Labour Force Survey (July 1963)6 ac- cording to which, in the municipal areas of Thailand, 47.3 percent of the total workers engaged in Commerce and 45.3 per cent of those. engaged in Services are females. The Survey has also revealed that among female workers a higher proportion is engaged in Commerce and Services than among male workers. 2 ILO Year Book of Labour Statistics,1966,Geneva 3 From the ILO Year Book of Labour Statistics, it is observed that these countries are as follows--Africa: Cape Verde Islands(1960), Dahomey(1961), Portuguese Guinea(1950); America: Haiti(1950); Europe: Rumania(1956). 4 Besides the countries listed in foot note 3, other countries are Bulgaria(1956), East Berlin(1960) and U.S.S.R(1959). 5 For a critical discussion, see You Poh Seng, Growth and Structure of the Labour Force in the countries of Asia and the Far East, Report of the Asian Population Conference and selected papers, U.N. New York 1964. 6 Report of the Labour Force Survey, July 1963, National Statistical Office, Office of the Prime Minister, Government of Thailand, Bangkok. 140 7e At the same time, there is a definite possibility that the concepts used in the Population Census would have exaggerated the proportion of women included in the labour force. Any person who worked on the Census day or any day during the seven days preceding the Census date was counted as employed, and the term 'worked' was not defined. No minimum time limit was prescribed in respect of the work done by an unpaid family workers?’ Generally speaking, an unpaid family worker presents a knotty problem in the measurement of the economically active population, and the situation becomes more compli- cated without a clear definition for it is difficult to distinguish whether or not an unpaid family worker should be included in the labour force. The 1960 Census reported 57.7 percent of the total labour force as unpaid family workers comprising 35.2 percent among male workers and 81.7 percent among female workers. The proportion of unpaid family workers is rather high and to some extent must have been the result of the liberal definition used in the Census. Although it is difficult to say the precise extent to which the labour force participation rates are exaggerated, these facts are relevant in projecting the labour force. 8. For planning purposes, the projection of the labour force has been confined to the population aged 15 years and over, since this would be appropriate to examine the additional number of jobs required to cope with the increase in the labour force. According to the 1960 Census, the labour force aged 15 years and over comprised 50.6 percent among males and 46.5 percent among females representing 48.6 percent of the total population of Thailand. In projecting the labour force participation rates, the over-estimate that might have occurred in the Census for the reason mentioned in the above para has been kept in view. Furthermore, it could be expected that the educational expansion envisaged in the Second and subsequent Plans will postpone the entry of young persons into the labour force, while as a result of improved living standards the older persons could be expected to retire earlier than before. The labour force participation rates have been projected by age and sex on the basis of these assumptions. 9. Applying the labour force participation rates to the projected population, the labour force figures have been obtained by age and sex for the period 1966-81. The projection of the labour force is as follows: 7 ‘The U.N.Population Commission recommended that the minimum adopted should be equal to approximately one-third of which is considered in each country concerned to be a normal amount of working time during the period to which the questions refer (p.39,The International Standardisation of Labour Statistics, ILO, Geneva,1959) 141 Table 2 Labour Force (in millions) Year Male Female Total Increase over five year period 1966 7.8 7.0 14.8 1971 9.0 8.1 17.1 2.3 1976 10.6 9.5 20.1 3.0 1981 12.5 11.3 23.8 2.7 10e The above projection implies that between 1966 and 1981 the labour force of Thailand will increase by 9.0 million for whom adequate em=- ployment opportunities have to be provided through careful planning. This number will not be altered to any significant extent due to demo= graphic changes as the future entrants to the labour market during the next 15 years are already born. The number can change due to non=- demographic factors, particularly the labour force participation of women, but at present there is no indication of any significant change likely to take place in their working habits during the period under projection. Projection of New Entrants and Separations lle The increase in the size of the labour force during each five year period given in Table 2 represents the net addition to the labour force, which is the difference between the number of new entrants to the labour market and the separations from the labour market during the periode It is important to make a clear distinction between the number of new entrants and the labour force growth, for the former has special relevance in organising employment and training programmes. From a projection of the labour force at any two points of time, the number of new entrants and separations can be derived by taking a difference between the labour force in a particular age group at the first point of time and the labour force in the succeeding age group at the second point of time when the time interval is identical with the interval of the age groupe This method is illustrated in Appendix I in regard to the male labour force of Thailand during 1966-71, 12. The increases in the labour force projected in Table 2 are analysed to derive the number of new entrants and separations which are given below. 142 Table 3 New entrants and separations from the labour market New Separa- Labour Rate of Period entrants tions Force New Separa- Labour Force Growth entrants tions growth (in millions) (per thousand in the labour force 1966-71 3.3 1,0 2.3 41,2 12.2 29.0 1971-76 4,0 1.0 3.0 42,8 10.3 32.5 1976-81 Lk? 1.0 3.7 L2.6 9.6 33.0 13. It may be observed that during the Second Plan period (1966-71) 3.3 million persons will enter the labour market while 1.0 million persons will leave the labour market. The number of new entrants to the labour force will increase further--4.0 million during 1971-76, and 4,7 million during 1976-81. This has to be explained by the assumption made in the population projection that the fertility decline will commence in 1970 the effect of which will be reflected only in 1985 on the number of persons reaching 15 years of age and hence the new entrants to the labour market. The labour force projection implies that 12.0 million persons will enter the labour market during the next 15 years for whom educational and training facilities will have to be organised in relation to future manpower requirements. 14, The above exercise has indicated the broad dimensions of the problem in regard to manpower development and utilisation which is an important objective of economic planning. These estimates will be useful in a perspective plan of economic and social development of Thailand, particularly from the point of view of human resources deve- lopment and employment promotion. Educational and manpower planning can be more precise and realistic if it is based on a detailed analysis of the potential entrants to the labour market and the labour force growth. New entrants and separations may be analysed not only by age and sex but also by place of residence, educational qualification and other characteristics, Further research is required to improve the techniques of planning based on this type of analysis following from a projection of the population and the labour force. Projection of Labour Force, New entrants and Males (in thousands) Separations, 1966-71 Appendix I Age 1966 1971 1966 1971 1966-1971 group Popula= L.F.P. Popula- LeF.P. Labour Labour New Separa- tion rate* tion rate* Force Force entrants tions % % 15-19 1,631 67.0 2,045 65.0 1,092.7 1,329.2 1,329.2 \ 20-24 1,361 85.2 1,612 84,2 1,159.5 213573 264.6 25-29 1,185 95.0 1,343 94,0 1,125.7 262.4 102.9 30-34 1,057 97.5 1,166 96.5 1,030.5 2512501 0.6 \ 35-39 874 97,8 | 1,035 96.8 254.7) N1,001.8 28,7 40-49 1,287 96.6 1,535 94.6 1,243.2 (1,452.1 50-59 867 91.5 993 88.5 793.3 y 878.8 y 47004 60 + 768 65.4 934 63.4 502.2 | 592.1 | Total 9,030 10,663 7,801.8 8,998.8 1,696.7 499,7 *Labour Force Participation rate + 1,197.0 + 1,197.0 ert 144 THE CONSEQUENCE OF RAPID POPULATION GROWTH ON THE LABOUR FORCE OF IRAN Mahmoud Setoudeh-Zand INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES AND RESEARCH UNIVERSITY OF TEHRAN, IRAN INTRODUCTION 1. The economic development of a country is. dependant on its human resources. Of these resources, the part which is directly responsible for the economic development of a country is composed of those persons who are between 15 to 64 years of age. The qua- lity and the quantity of these human resources or in other words how extensively and intensively the labour force is participa- ting in the labour market is an indication of the degree of eco- nomic development and prosperity of a nation. 2) For a country like Iran, with its vast material potentia- lities and abundant resources, the only economic drawback to the expected speed of development is the shortage of qualified and skilled labour. The rapid growth of the population of Iran is supplying the country with steadily increasing number of la- bour force. This trend could lead to a greater progress if the labour force is sufficiently trained and effectively utilized. I. The trend of population growth in Iran a. The trend in the past. 3. The first census of Iran reported a total population of about 18,955,000 in November 1956. The age distribution of Ira- nian population as it appears from the census results show 42.2% of population in ages below fifteen 53.8% in ages 15 to 64 and 4.0% in ages 65 and over. 4. The Household Sample Survey of Labour Force which was con- ducted in 1964, shows an even higher percentage for the younger age group. As a result of this survey the age group below 15 has increased from 42,2% in 1956 to 46% in 1964 and the age group 15 to 64 has decreased from 53.8 to 49,8 and the last group from 4.0 to 4.2 percent. 5. The very fast increase of the size of population as repor- ted by the preliminary results in the 2nd census shows that the population of Iran has increased to 25,780,000 in one decade in- dicating an annual increase of about 3 percent. 145 b. The future trend 6. The population of Iran is characterized by a high fertility and relatively high mortality rates. There are some indications that mortality is decreasing in the country and this decrease is enhanced by development of social progress and extension of more medical cares in cities and sending of mobile health units known as Health Corps to rural areas (Units of one physician and 3 uni- versity graduates rendering medical services in the villages of Iran instead of military conscription). The steady expansion of urban population who enjoy greater medical care and the extension of educational facilities among different sectors of population are two other factors contributing to lower mortality in Iran. Instead, there is very little evidence to proove that fertility of the women in Iran is declining except for those in the upper social classes, who are considered to be very small in number. 7. A few projections which have been prepared for Iranian popu- lation, all show a very rapid growth for the country. According to the highest of these projections population of Iran will double within the next two decades as a result of a constant fertility and rapid decreasing mortality. Such a rapid increase of popula- tion presents this country with numerous demographic problems particularly in the years to come. 8. From among the four sets of projections made by the Insti- tute of Social Studies and Research, we have taken the two extre- mes: a) projection with constant fertility during 1956-1986 and rapid decreasing mortality; b) decreasing fertility as of 1971 and moderately decreasing mortality. The population of Iran according to these projections are given in table 1 below, on the basis of which the estimation of the labour force and other calculations are made. "Table 1" POPULATION OF IRAN BY THE LOVEST AND THE HIGHEST PROJECTIONS, 1956-1986 (fig. in 1000) 1976 1986 1956 1966 Lowest Highest Lowest Highest (1) (2) 19321 25444 . 34482 35139 47806 51259 (1) Adjusted (2) The preliminary results of the 2nd census appeared to be 1.7% greater. The aim of this paper being to show the future trend of labour force growth, no attempt has been made to make any adjustment. 146 II. Working age, and Economically active population of Iran during 1966-1986 9. The relative size and composition of the labour force is basically determined by the age structure of the population of a country. A whole series of factors related to the level of economic and social development of the country such as complsary education, industrilization, rural migration, retirement schemes etc. have, each their relative influence in the volume and distri- bution of the active population. 10. For a country like Iran dominated by an agricultural econo- my, the usual criteria commonly applied in industrial countries for measurement of active population will not be effectively appli- cable. There are a great number of women in rural areas of Iran who are partly engaged in activities not intended for any pay or profit. These activities are mostly in the form of transformation of farm products into usable goods or fabrication of some material goods for their own household uses. t. Working age population 11. The active population of Iran by 1956 census was measured from age 10 and over. This in addition to what was stated before, made us to measure the active population once for age 10 and over for internal use and once for the conventional age 15 to 64 for international comparability. Table 2 appendix 1 shows the average annual increase of working age population during the periods 1956- 1966, 1966-1976, and 1976-1986. 2.. Economically active population 2.1,male Labour force 12. There is no doubt that Iran will sooner or latter follow the labour force pattern of industrialized countries. The coven- tional classification of countries of the world in three categories of agricultural, semi-industrialized and industrialized, places Iran in the first category. Each series of countries located in these 3 categories have relatively different pattern of activity rates for different age groups. We have assumed that Iran by 1986 will reach the same level of industrilization and the same age specifie activity rates as those of Ireland and Italy in 1961, Poland, Hungary and Chile in 1960 and Japan in 1940, 13. The graphic interpolation between the observed activity rates for male in the 1956 census and the unweighted average age specific activity rates of the selected countries provided us with the neces- sary rates for estimation of active males in each period. Table 3,app.2. shows,in index form the growth of the male labour force, 147 22.Jemale labour force 14, The female parficipation in social activities increases in coherence with higher urbanization and with increasing school attendance. Iran is no exception to this rule. The observed female participation rate for women 10 years and over was 9.2% in 1956. It is assumed that this observed rate will not fall below 20% by late 1986. An interpolation of these two figures has provided us with rates to estimate active women for each period. The figures thus obtained were turned into the form of indices and combination of these indices enabled us to draw up table 4, appendix 3 3. Dependency ratio 15, For the purpose of comparison between active and nonactive population, the dependancy ratios for the period under study were calculated. (see table 5 appendix 3 ). These dependency ratios of both sexes as a whole are quite high as compared with wstern coun- tries.. The ratio of 233 in 1956 reaching 249 in 1986 by the lowest projection, is very high when compared with the dependency ratio of 132 for France in 1962. No doubt such a high dependency will adver- sely affect the standard of living and general productivity of individuals and consequently will hinder the economic development of a country. 4. Crude active life —_remeic nr nn how 16. The crude active life showsYlong of his 55 or 60 years of active life a male surviving at age 70 would have spent in econo- mic activity of the country depending on whether starts woring at age 10 or 15. The crude years of active life were calculated for Iran as follows: 1956 1966 1976 1986 Crude active life as of age 10 52,9 51.0 49,4 48.2 Crude active life as of age 15 51.4 49,6 48,8 48.0 17. The declining tendency as observed in above figures could be accounted for by later enterance into the labour market and ear- lier withdrawal from itor in general for different activity rates, 5. Net years of active life 18. In order to show how much the crude active life are affected by mortality, net years of active life were also calculated the results of which are given in table 6, appendix 4 , The table shows that despite the lowering rates of participation in the coming 2 decades for the earliest and the latest age groups, the net years of active life is increasing. This phenomenon is the result of a greater effect of mortality decline expected to take place in the country. 148 6. Comparison between working life expectation and relative lefe expectancy. 19, The life expectancy of males at age 15 is compared with their net working life expectancy at the same age. Table 7, appen- dix 4 shows this comparison, 20, This table very clearly indicates that the difference between life expectancy at age 15 and working life expectancy at the same age in Iran‘is small as compared with those of industrialized coun- tries. This difference which is only 7.3 years at present will reach 11.8 years by 1986 which means with higher life expectancy there is a greater chance of inactive life for a man. Summary The population of Iran is increasing with as high a rate as| about 3 percent year. This alarming rate of growth is upsetting the popu- lation structure particularly in so far as the working age popula- tion is concerned. Thus, although the working age population is increasing by volume, it is ironically decreasing percentage-wise, This being the case at present and the next decade is expected to get adjusted with social and economic advancement of the country later on. Some statistical indications evidencing this statement are already given in this study. In general, the active population of Iranis increasing simul- taneously with the population growth although the country is assu- med to acheive the present economic activity pattern of semi-indus- trialized countries, by 1986. However, the consequence of the rapid increase of population is burdening the active population of Iran with a very high dependency ratio. The school attendance rate which is increasing rapidly in Iran, will provide the country with greater number of skilled men in the active population, Despite the present lower life expectancy at birth the working life expectancy for a man entering working age of 15 is very high in Iran as compared to that of industrialized countries. The difference between life expectancy at birth and net years of wor- king life found to be about 6 years in 1956 is increasing steadily over. the period reaching to about 23 years by 1986 - an increase which is a consequence of social and economic progress. 149 BIBLIOGRAPHY -———————— 0 2 “re 1- J.C.CHASTELAND ,M.AMANI et 0.4.PUECH : La population de l'Iran ,Perspective d'evolution 1956-1986. 2- UNITED NATIONS ; Demographic aspects of manpower Report 1,sex and age patterns of participation in economic activities. NEW YORK 1962. 3- INTERNATIONAL LABOUE OFFICE. : Year Book of labour statistics 1965, Geneva 1966. 4- UNITED NATIONS: DEMOGRAPHIC YEARBOOK 1965. NEW YORK 1966. Appendix 1 "Table 2" AVERAGE ANNUAL INCREASE OF WORKING AGE POPULATION, IRAN, 1956-1986 (figures in 1000) Sex Period Period 1966-76. Poriod 1976-86 1956-66 Lowest Highest Lówest Highest 1. Age group 10 and over Male 200 300 305 431 492 Female 197 297 302 427 489 Both sexes 397 597 607 858 981 2. Age group 15-64 Male 130 234 237 341 364 Female 129 232 235 337 361 Both sexes 259 466 472 678 723 Total population:19321-25444 34482 35139 47806 51259 150 Appendix 2 “Table 3" MALE LABOUR FORCE GROWTH BY AGE GROUP, IRAN, 1956-1986 (Base year: 1956 = 100) Age groups (3) 1966 Lowest Highest Lowest Highest Lowest Highest 1956 1976 1976 1986 1976 1986 1986 10-14 118 77 77 37 42 34 38 15-19 172 132 132 127 132 291 303 20-24 141 156 156 132 133 292 295 25-29 111 149 150 143 144 239 242 30-34 100 130 130 160 162 210 213 35-39 106 123 123 151 153 199 202 40-44 111 122 123 131 133 180 183 45-49 114 121 121 125 127 173 177 50-54 116 121 122 124 126 176 180 55-59 111 116 117 124 126 160 280 60-64 112 113 113 122 125 155 160 65 + 95 113 115 108 113 117 124 Total 10 years and above 119 129 129 132 134 205 209 Total 15 to 64 121 133 133 136 138 220 224 (3) The uneven and high ratios as noticed in this column for 15-19, 20-24 are due to distortion of the age structure of reported male population in 1956 census. 151 Appendix 3 "Table 4" INDEX OF LABOUR FORCE GROWTH BY SEX, IRAN, 1956-86 (Base year: 1956 = 100) Sex 1966 Lowest Highest Lowest Highest Lowest Highest Year 1956 1976 1976 1986 1986 1986 1986 1966 1966 1976 1976 1956 1956 1. Labour force estimated as of age 10 and over Male 119 129 129 132 134 205 209 Female 183 178 179 166 173 544 567 Total 125 136 136 138 141 237 243 2. Labour force estimated from age 15 to 64 Male 115 133 133 136 138 209 213 Female 157 180 180 168 171 478 488 Total 118 138 139 141 143 233 237 "Table 5" DEPENDENCY RATIO PER 100 ACTIVE POPULATION 1956 — 1966 1976 1986 Lowest Highest Lowest Highest 1. Non active — 212 233 229 236 221 246 active aged 10 and over 2. Non active 233 277 266 274 — 249 — 279 active aged 15 to 64 152 Appendix 4 "Table 6" NET YEARS OF ACTIVE LIFE OF IRANIAN MALE POPULATION WITH RESPECTIVE EXPECTATION OF LIFE AT BIRTH Age 1956 1966 Low 1976 High Low 1986 High groups E,=45.0 E,=50.0 E,=55.0 E,=60,.4 E,=60.4 E,=65.8 15-19 39.2 40.0 40.9 42.3 42.8 24-24 36.1 37.0 38.0 39.3 39.8 25-29 32.8 33.5 34.3 35.4 35.8 30-34 29.1 29.7 31.1 31.2 31.4 35-39 25.4 25.8 26.2 26.9 ( 27.0 40-44 21,6 21.8 22,0 22.6 22.6 45-49 17.8 17.9 18.0 18.4 18,2 50-54 14.1 14.1 13.9 14.3 14.0 55-59 10.5 10.2 10.0 10.2 9.9 60-64 7.0 6.6 6.3 6.3 5.9 65-69 3.5 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.3 "Table 7" WORKING LIFE EXPECTING AT AGE 15 AS COMPARED WITH THE RELATIVE LIFE EXPECTANCY ( MALE.) Year E, Life expectancy Net working life Ratio at age 15 expectancy at age 2/1 3/2 3/1 (1) (2) (35 1956 45.0 44,6 39.2 0.991 0.879 0,871 1966 50.0 47.3 40,0 0.946 0,846 0,800 1976 55.0 49.9 40.9 0.907 0.720 0,744 1976 60.4 52,4 42.3 0.868 0,807 0,700 1986 60.4 52.4 42.3 0.868 0.807 0.700 1986 65.8 54.6 42,8 0.830 0.784 0.650 153 PRCELEMS OF MANPOWER IN TATWAN: A DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC VIEW Henry T.Y. Chen, Counselor Ministry of Interior Republic of China Any realistic approach to economic development planning must take into account the supply and demand of manpower, since capital and natural resources can not be fully and efficiently utilized unless there is sufficient qualified manpower supplied in the right places at the right times. In this paper, manpower problems are examined in the light of population trends and economic development. The discussion is based in part upon the Labor Force Survey which is carried out Quarterly by a special staff assigned to the Taiwan Provincial Government. This survey seeks to determine the size, make-up and utilization of Taiwan's labor force to assist the govern- ment in its efforts toward sound economic and manpower planning. 1. Definition of Manpower The term "manpower," as defined by the Labor Force Survey, means persons 12 years and over who were either employed or unemployed during a week preceding the survey. The latter includes persons with previous job experience as well as those who were looking for a job for the first time. Thus manpower corresponds the term "labor force," or "economically active population." It represents the total strength of such segment of population and may be characterized as core of the nation, on which economic development depends. 2. Population and Labor Force Taiwan, China is indeed one of the most rapid growing areas in the world. A triple increase of population occurred during 1920- 1960 (from 3.6 million to 10,7 million). The reason for such tremendous increase was mainly due to the high rate of natural increase, The birth rate constantly stood as high as over LO between 1920 and 1959, but the death rate gradually dropped from 25 in 1920 154 to 7 in 1959.71 Thus the rate of natural increase was 18 in 19905 and 35 in 1950's. A dowrward trend has occurred since 1960. The rate of natural increase was 27 in 1965, resulted from birth rate 32 over death rate 5.%2 Taiwan's high rate of natural increase has made the population younger. In 1965, persons under 15 years con- stituted 1,5% of total population. Furthermore, such a rapid in- crease in population has created a large labor force, which was 4 million out of total population 12.3 million, or 32% in 1965.%3 ch rapid increase, age composition, and large labor force are fundamental characteristics of the population in Taiwan. 3. Economic Development and Labor Force The economy in Taiwan has to date been able to absorb such large number of labor forces, The Government has launched three consecutive L-year economic development plans since 1953, The fourth one (1965- 1968) is currently in operation. The investment for carrying out the plans during 1953-1960 ‘amounted to 700 million dollars (US$ equivalent), *l As a result, in the 1950's the annual rate of increase in national income reached 7% and was expected to remain so during the 4th Four-Year Eccnomic Plan period.” During this period of high economic growth rate the economy has had the capacity to sustain, on a rather lower level, large labor force and young population as mentioned earlier, while being able to keep pace y in general, with the growth of population. 4. Unemployment Although our economy has the capacity to maintain a large labor force, the unemployment rate, computed as the ratio of unemployed persons to total labor force, fs rather high. me rate was 6%, 5%, and 1% for 1963, 1964, and 1965, respectively. *6 This situation, *1 United Nations, World Population Prospects (1966) p.63 #2 Taiwan Provincial Civil Affairs Department, the Monthl pue of Population Revistration Statistics of Taiwan (Jan. 1966) #3 Taiwan Provincial Social Affairs Department, Labor Force Survey Report (July 1966) p.3 *L Chia Lin Yang, Economic Development and Educational Planning, pp.9-10 *5 Council for International Economic Coo eration and Development, Abstract of Lth Economic Development Plan (1965) pe. #6 Op. cit., Labor Force Survey Report (July 1966) p.12 155 together with the fact that per capita income was only US$150 for 1964; US;17C for 1965, suggests the craveness of the problems of unemployment, which needs immediate attention. The young persons in labor force have been the ones hardest hit by unemployment. The unemployed persons constituted 22%, 9%, and 6. of persons between 12-14, 15-19, and 20~2L ages, respectively, - in 3965,*7 : Enemployment seems more associated with persons having general education than those having vocational education (training) or higher educztion. For instance, in 1965, the unemployed persons with junior or senior middle school educations were 6~7% of tctal persons having such educational attainment in the labor force, while those with junior or senior vocational school training were only 4-57 of total persons having such education level in the labor force, Among the college-educated persons in the labor force, there was only 4% un- employment in 1965,%8 This indicates that attainment of vocational education (training) or high education is a favorable factor in finding employment. ‘ 5. Demand for Skilled Workers Lack of vocational skill occurs generally in labor force, In 1956-1965, the failure to meet the requirements of the referrers, who came to the government employment service agencies, was 39% attributable to the lack of skills required. Among job openings which failed to find suitable candidates, craftsman topped all the rest by 164." As our economy has made great strides industrially, the demand for technical personnel greatly increased. It is estimated that between 195 and 1969, the Fourth 4-Year Economic Development Plan period, the supply of manpower with senior vocational school education for industrial and martime products industries would run short by 21,700 persons; the supply for technical and agricultural manpower with institute education,2,000 persons; and the supply of engineering and medical manpower with college level educations, 1,200 persons. On the other hand, during the same period, the graduates of primary, junior and senior middle schools, possessing no vocational skills, are expested to outmumber the demand by 118,100; 90,000; and 46,900 *7, Ibid., p.13 *8, Ibid., p.13 ‘ *G, Taiwan Provincial Social Affairs Department, Taiwan Employment Guidance. (May 1966) p.4 156 persons, respectively, “10 The Government of the “epublic of China fuliy recognizes that it must develop facilities to provide such surplus graduates with some kind of vocational training to facilitate their finding jobs. This country has been stepping up the pace of industrialization in recent two decades. This may be reflected in the structure of labor force. In October 1953, 517 of employed persons engaged in agricultural activity, while 19% of employed persons in industrial activity. A rather marked change was seen in July 1966, when 450 of employed persons worked in agriculture, and 227 in industrial activity, *11 The transition in our society favoring accelerated industrialization certainly calls for more skilled and semi-skilled workers in the future. 6. Solutions In attempting to solve the yroblems as indicated above, four measures have been in operation with varying degrees of success, Firstly, since persons under 15 constituted 45% of our population in 1965 (nearly so in last decade), this is not conducive to sound economic development. It is suggested that polices designed to moderate the rate of growth of young population by reducing natural increase should be adopted, The Manpower Plan approved by the Government in 1966 specified that measures aiming at reducing the annual rate of natural increase to 20 should be worked out by June 1967. Detailed measures have been drafted by an interministerial committee and will be submitted to the Executive Yuan (cabinet) for approval. Even in the absence of an afficial population policy, people have moved ahead of the Government in this respect, In the last decade, through voluntary efforts, with some assistance from public health agencies, family planning has gradually spreaded on Taiwan and begun showing its association with the downward trend of birth rate from 45 in 1955 to 32 in 1965; and further decrease is under way. The 5-year f-mily planning action program starting from 1964 has helped to reduce the rate of natural increase to 27 in 1965, Thus the prospect of moderation of the growth of the portion of persons under 15 is good, Second, the efforts toward economic development should be stepped up so that more goods, services and jobs can be made available, and #10. Council for International Economic Cooperation and Development, "Medium Term Manpower Supply and Demand Program, ": Chart, Man- power Resources Development Plan (July 1966) *11. Op. cit., Labor Force Survey Report (July 1966) p.7 157 unemployment — 4% in 1965 — may be reduced, To this end, we have achieved considerable success through four consecutive economic development plans since 1953, and are looking forward for further advancement during the 4th Four-Year Economic Development Plan period (1965-1969). Third, an organized manpower market must be developed to further decrease unemployment, The government employment service agencies have been operating on a moderate scale with considerable success. During 1956 - 1965, 80,000 job applicants were placed out of 220,000 applicants, i.e., 107*12 Of course, mich still remains to be done. Fourth, in the educational aspect, since lack of skill is one of the most acute problems of manpower — especially among the young labor foree, therefore technical education and vocational training must be expanded, The programs to accelerate vocational training has been put into practice, wniie the stress to acquire high education has been a general tendency. It is a consensus in this country that one of the surest ways to achieve industrialization is to raise the technical level of manpower through vigorous education and training programs. To this end, much more action will surely be taken in the near future, *12, Op. cit., Taiwan Employment Guidance p.4 158 EFFORTS FOR CONTROLLING RATES OF POPULATION GROWTH By A.M.N. El Shafei. H.M. Hussein. A.E. Sarhan 1. In erder te centrel pepulatien increase ene ef many alternative pelicies may be censidered. In fact mere than ene may pessibly be adep- ted simultaneeusly, Seme ef the mest feasible of these pelicies are :- I - Pepulatien Pelicy . A gevernment adepted pregram ef family planning well prepared fer and, wisely carried eut, can be effective. ÀA very strong and inof- fensive pregram ef enlightening the cencerned greups is necessary te create faverable attitudes and te prepare them fer accepting the pregram and, later, fer wisely and wheleheartedly cooperating in the execution. 3e The mest effective, and perhaps acceptable, ef the metheds of family planning at present seems te be the pill (eral centraceptives) and the leep (IUCD). 4. The mest rewarding age-çreup ef wemen, if cencentrated en, seens te be 25 te less than 35 years. In the UAR, fer example, it has been feund in the Pepulatien Census ef 1960 that women in the preductive age- greup ef 15 te less than 50 years numbered abeut 6 millien. Of these, 1.9 millien, i.e. abeut their third were in the age-group 25 te less than 35 years. Se Taking the average annual births fer the three years 1959-1561, we find the number ef births fer all wemen ef age 15-50 years was 1119818; whereas the number ef births by wemen ef age 25-35 wes 673,347. This means that appreximately 60% ef the births are pro- duced by enly ene third ef the wemen in the fertile age. Concentratien en this third weuld therefere, everything else being equal, give the quickest results. 6. The necessary investment fer this can be calculated en the basis ef the recent experience in the UAR. The pills are a; strgbuted free by the gevernment at a monthly cest te it of 15 piastres* *) fer each woman, mereever the weman pays lO piastres menthly te the clinic te cever the technical and acministrative expenses. Thus, the anual cest incurred by beth the Gevernment and the user ef the pills is three Egyptian peunds for every user, The I,U.C.D.'s are supplied by ez, 1 = 100 piastres = $ 8.3 appreximately. 159 the Government in the clinics free of charge, and the Government pays to the staff of the clinic one pound for each insertion and pays also fifty piastres for the person introducing the user. This makes the total cost of each insertion one and a half pounds. The price of the loop itself is trivial since it is produced locally now, and is com- pensated by savings from the money that would have gone to the persons introducing the users in the many cases in which users go on their ewn impetus. The loop is supposed to last for a number of years, but to. make up for repulsions, re-insertions, misuse and abuse it can safely be assumed to last on average for two years. This makes the average annual cost per loop user three quarters of an Egyptian pound. Te For various physiological and psychelogical reasons it cannet be assumed that all women will use the pills, or that all of them will use the loop. It may be assumed, therefore, that 80% of the women in the Age-Group under consideration will use the pills and the remaining 20% will use the IUCD'S. The population of the UAR at present (early 1967) is estimated at just over thirty million people. Out of these there are about seven million women in reproductive age including about 2.3. million between 25 and 35 years old, 8. The total cost would thus be: 2.3 x 0.8 x 3 + 2,3 x 0,2 x 0.75 = 5.52 + 0.345 = 6 million pounds approx- imately. Adding to this two million pounds to cover roughly all costs of training, communication, administration, publications and other overheads we get the total annual investment necessary eight million pounds, EL If this approach proves completely successful the births will decrease by 60%. The annual birth rate will drop from 43 per thousand to 17 per thousand and the annual rate of increase tends to zero and the pop- ulation becomes almost stationary, This decrease in the birth rate may, however, have its favorable effect on the death rate which may possibly go down by half becoming 8 or 9 per thousand leaving and annual rate of incre- ase of population less than 1% which is about a third of its present value, 10. This means that if the economic grewth remains at its present rate of 7% annually the per capita income will increase by nat less than 6% annually, which is a valuable rate of increase which will lead to à size- able rise in the level of living. Moreover, the rate of increase of pop- ulation will have dropped to a level favorably comparable with the rate of increase in food production. I _- Educational Policy: Effect of Raisiug School-Leaving Age. le Compulsory education in UAR covers children in the age group 6-12, L all these children are accommodated in schools yet and due to the high rate of population growth, their numbers are rapidly increasing. However, the target is to get all children of this age interval in school by 1969, being the end of the second five-year plan, 2 pa 160 12. If it is decided to raise the school-leaving age from 12 to 15 years, it is expected that a decline in the fertility rate for women and an increase in the productivity of individuals as a whole will follow. This will lead to an increase in the national production and in the total incomes of the people. A sufficient decrease in human fertility will result in substantial saving in consumption expenditure, consumption inve- sthent and investments necessary for creating employment opportunities for the large numbers entering the labour market annually. 13. To illustrate the effect, calculations have been made in the North African Demographic Centre in Cairo for the period of the Third Five-year Plan, viz 1970-1974. (F. Taha, R. Afifi, S.A. Maksoud) 14. Results of the 1960 Census of Population show that a woman with preparatory education, which ends at age 15, produces, during her fertile period (16-15), on average 1.2 child less than a woman with primary education only, which ends at age 12. Girls attaining the age of 15 during the interval 1970-74 will be 1,692,000 each of whom will produce in her fertile life 1.2 children less, thus leading to a total decrease of 2,030,000 in the number of children to be produced up to the end of the century. 15. Benefits accruing from this will be as follows: a) Saving education cests of these 2,030,000 for 9 years from 6-15 at the present prevailing rates of LE. 27 annually per capita for the first 6 years and LE.42 annually per capita for the next 3 years amounting to a total of Million LE. 588. b) Savings on future housing for these 2,030,000 when arriving at the marriage age of 20 years on average and needing about a mil- lion dwelling units costing about Million LE, 515. c) Savingsresulting from not having to create working opportunities for the 2,030,000 which will not be produced at the prevailing rate of LE. 887 per capita with a total of Million LE. 3801. d) Saving the difference in investment needed for creating work opportunities for children on reaching the age of 15, runmvering 3,663,000, assuming they are all willing and able instead ‘of having to create jobs for all those reaching age of 12, numbering 4,191,000. Average investment in the first five-year plan for providing employment per capita was L.E: 887, The total saving on this score would thus be 1,89 million Egyptian pounds as against an expenditure on their scheoling from 12-15 of Million LE.L21 resulting in net savings of Million LE. 68. e) The National Income will be diminished by Million LE, 891 during the period 1970-71 due to elimination of income from wages of those reaching the age of 12 during this interval, en the assump- tion of an annual income ef LE. 90 per capita. On the other hand, 161 increasing their educatien 3 years will raise their per capita annual inceme to LE. 120 leading te an increase of Million LE 70 in the National Income in the same period. This results in a net expenditure of Million LE. 821 (negative saving) f) Giving more education will raise the productivity and increase the income per capita, It has been estimated that the increase, due to this, in per-capita income during the active life of L5 years is LE. 1332. Thus the total increase in National Income during this period due to raising productivity is Million LE. L882. eg) Increasing schooling by 3 years increases the National Income by Million LE. 277 being the amount of extra income generated in the Educational Sector, The final result will be net savings of 588 + 51,8 + 1801 + 68 = 821 + 1882 + 277 = 816 - 821 = Million LE. 7343. 16. These savings will result from raising the school leaving age by three years for the cohort destined to leave school in the interval 1970-74. They will be realised during their complete working period of 4S years with an average annual gain of Million LE. 163, about 9% of the present value of the National Income, 17. Savings have been calculated similarly for the cohort destined to leave school in the interval 1975-79 and found to be Million LE. 8751 with an average annual gain of Million LE, 195. III = Social Polic 18. The minimum legal age for marriage of girls in the UAR is 16 years, and sometimes it is thought that raising this age would lead te a decrease in the number of births. This may be true, but the decrease is comparatively very small since births frem mothers less than 19 years is about 2% only of the whole annual births and thus reising the marriage age to 18 will save no more than 2% of the annual births, Due to preva- iling attitudes and traditions such a raise by law would be very much rese- nted and not well accepted. Experience in some developed countries has shown that such a raise by law although resulting in less marriages, the number ef births has not decreased, Spreading education, affording more employment opportunities for women and the adoption of the socialist sys=- tem would lead and are actually leading, more naturally to raising the age even higher than 18 years, 19. However, another approach may be more effective.About 15% of the annual live births in UAR are over the fourth child produced by the mother. The Fourth National Life Tables for Egypt calculated after the last comp- lete census ef Population in 1960 show that about threecquarters of the newly bern children live up te the age of twenty. This means that a female 162 producing four children will have on average, three of them reaching the ago of twenty, and two of these at least will survive till over fifty. 20. For more than one reason, the most suitable time for a female to practice contraception seems to be immediately after a delivery, It, therefore, seems very effective to concentrate on women immediately after their fourth delivery of a live child. 21. Females giving deliveries of the fourth order of merit or higher are about 60% of the total annual delivering females. The annual birth rate now is still over LO per thousand, and thus the live births in 1967 are expected to be about 130,000, Contraceptives should, therefore, be applied to about 78,000 delivering mothers in their post partum stage. This, if completely effective, shoudd lead to a reduction in the annual birth rate of 0.45 x 0.040 = 0,018 bringing it down to, at most, 22 per thousand. If the death rate goes down even to 15 per thousand, the rate of growth of population will be only 0.7% annually which would mean doubling the population in over a century instead of less than thirty years at the present rate of growth. 22. The necessary investment can again be calculated on the basis of assumptions mentioned previously, that 80% will use oral pills at an annual cost of LE 3 per female, and 20% will use IUCD at an annual cost of LE 0.75 per head. The total cost will be 78,000 x 0.8 x 3 + 78,000x0.2 x 0.75 i.e. approximately LE 200,000, most of which goes to the medical and medicine sectors, Administrative, social, publicity and other over- head expenses will amount to another LE 100,000 making the total cost about LE 300,000; about a third of which will have to be providea in hard currency. The necessary investments will, of course, increase annua- lly due to the effect of population growth on the numbers under study. LIVE BIRTHS IN EACH OF THE URBAN GOVERNORATES AND TOTALS OF LOWER AND UPPER EGYPT IN LOCALITIES HAVING HEALTH BUREAUS,BY PRINCIPAL RELIGIONS AND ORDER OF NEW-BORN FOR THE YEAR L960 Order of Religions Rate per 1,000 New-born Moslems Christians Others Total Moslems Christians Others Total Ist 53,165 3,596 22 56,703 106.1 96.6 211,5 105.5 2nd 091 4,577 19 61,687 120,0 122.9 182.7 120.2 3rd 82,731 6,160 21 89,215 165.2 173.5 230.8 165.8 Lth 85,021 6,582 22 91,625 169.8 176.8 211.5 170.2 Sth 63,945 L,827 5 68,777 127.7 129.6 48.1 127.8 6th 53,635 3,989 L 57,628 107.1 107.1 38.5 107.1 Tth 36,627 2,723 L 39,354 73.1 73.1 38.5 73.1 8th 25,727 1.816 2 27,545 51.l 18.8 19.2 51.2 9th 15,677 1,182 1 16,860 31.3 31.7 9.6 31.3 10th&over 16,046 1,182 1 17,229 32.0 31.7 9.6 32.0 unstated 8,180 304 - 8,18 16.3 8,2 - 15.8 Total 500,815 37,238 lol 538,187 1000.0 1000.0 1000,0 1000.0 163 ON THE RELATION OF THE RURAL~URBAN CONTINUUM TO THE OCCUPATIONAL COMPOSITION IN TAIWAN, 1956 D. Y. Yuan, Ph.D., Instructor in Sociology, Brooklyn College of the City University of New York, and Adjunct Assistant Professor, Long Island University, Brooklyn, New York, U. S. A. 1. While leading students of urban and rural sociology have found that a variety of the industrial and occupational characteristics of the labor force do vary consistently or significantly with the rural-urban continuum in some developed countries such as the United States, relatively little is known about such variations in underdeveloped countries. Examples of such studies on the States include the investigation of the gemeinschaît= gesellschaft continuum by Loomis and Beegle, Queen and Carpenter's study of the Aerea continuum, and the Duncan and Reiss study of the 1950 census data. 2. At least in the United States, there is a very definite relation=- ship between community size and the occupational composition of the popu= lation. The situation is much less apparent in the underdeveloped countries. Due to the absence of research analogous to the studies described above, very little is known about the relationship between community size and occupa- tional characteristics of the population in the countries of the non-Western world. Drawing on available data for Taiwan, this paper seeks to fill, in part, this gap in our knowledge. In addition, it seeks to identify and ex- plain the particular local characteristics. In order to facilitate the analysis, this will be done by relating various occupational characteristics to the rural-urban continuum constructed for Taiwan. 164 THE APPROACH 3. The civil divisions, or communities, of Taiwan constitute the basic administrative units for the census tabulations. In Taiwan, such units are of two major types: counties and municipalities. The counties (hsien) are divided into hsiang (rural areas consisting of clusters of villages that do not contain a marketing center), and chen (urban areas, where a marketing center, or town, has grown up as the center of economic and social activities for the surrounding villages and hamlets). Hsiang and chen are further sub divided into pao and chia, which are neighborhood groups of households. Hsiang and chen are the smallest reporting units in the 1956 Population Census of Taiwan, and they are the units on which the present analysis is based. For ease of comprehension, the term "village" will be used from now on for hsieng (rural), and "township" will be used for chen (urban). The municipalities of Taiwan are divided into several chu, which correspond to districts or wards. In the present study, however, nondivided munici- palities will be used. The rural-urban continuum being constructed here for Taiwan, then, is based on three types of administrative units -- munici= palities, townships, and villages =~ classified according to size of popu- lation ( see Table 1). Throughout this study it is assumed that munici- palities are the most urban, townships are intermediate between rural and urban, and villages are the most rural. This assumption is based on the fact that a municipality or city does not include any townships or villages, a township has at least one town in it, and a village consists of sub= villages but does not contain a town. The validity of this continuum is confirmed by data presented in another paper. ? 4, In order to test the significance of the differentiating power of the continuum constructed here, Spearman rank-order correlation co= efficients were computed to measure the association between the independent variable (position on the continuum) and each of the dependent variables (percentage farm, etc.). Since there are 10 groups of communities by type and population size, a rank correlation coefficient of less than - .564 will not be statistically significant (5 percent level). 165 FINDINGS 5. Broad occupation group. -- The broad occupation groups con- sist of:© a. White-collar occupations: professional, technical, and related workers; menegerial, administrative, clerical and related workers; sales workers; and occupation unidentifiable or not reported. b. Manuel occupations: this group includes all except service, white-collar, and farm occupations. c. Farm occupations: farmers, fishermen, lumbermen, hunters and related workers. d. Service occupations: protective service workers, service workers in private households, barbers . . . . and other service workers. 6. Figures 1 end 2 present the percentage distribution of the em- ployed mele and femele labor force by broad occupational group.” They indicate: (1) The positive relationship between the rural-urban con- tinuum end the percentages of the employed male and female labor force engaged in white-collar occupations is consistent except that the percent- age for females in Type-and-size Group 7 is relatively high between the two adjacent groups, (2) on the other hand, the reverse pattern applies to the percentages of the employed male and female labor force engaged in farm occupations. But the consistent negative variation between the percentages in farm a and the continuum is slightly clearer for males than for femeles.® (3) There is a general tendency for the percenteges of the employed male and female labor force engaged in ser- vices to increase as the size of civil division increases. (4) In oc- cupational structure of manual workers, there are gradations rather than compartments. Although the gradations are not clear, they are in gen- eral in the positive direction. 7. We will examine the general findings in the order of the pre- sentation outlined above. First, the discussion will be centered upon the relationship between white collar occupations and the continuum. Demographers usually claim white collar occupations as urban types of occupation. Social changes associated with urbanization are reflected in the occupational structure. For example, white collar occupations have expended and farm occupations have contracted. Therefore, from the rural pole to the urban pole of the continuum, a gradual expansion in white collar occupations should be expected. Figure 2 confirms this expectation. 166 8. If Taiwan is compared with the United States, the same general pattern of the percentage employed in white-collar occupations and size of community is found. Citing Duncan and Reiss, we note: The percentage employed in white-collar occupations . . . declines from about 48 in the urbanized areas of 3 million or over, to 43 in the smallest urbanized areas, 39 in the smellest urban places, 36.5 in the villeges, end 27.5 end 8 in the non-farm and farms . . . respectively. 9. Secondly, the regular decrease of the labor force engaged in farm occupations from the rurel pole to the urban pole is expected on the basis of the rural-urban continuum,l0- 10. Third, the percentage of the employed males engaged in service occupations increases from 2.8 in thesmallest villages (Group 0) to 4.6 in the largest towmships (Group 6), and to 10.1 in the largest muni- cipality (Group 9) respectively. The corresponding percentage of the females increases from 0.6 to 13.7 and to 20.2 respectively (see Fig. 2e.) Although there is a general upward gradient for the percenteges of both males and females engaged in service occupations with increasing size of civil divisions, the increase for females is more substantial then that for meles. 11. The International Standard Classification of Occupations speci- Ties that service workers in private households be included in the broad occupation group, "service workers." Therefore, a large proportion of gainfully occupied females engaged in service occupations in large civil divisions is partly accounted for by the concentration of domestic service workers--servants, and cooks in private families -- in such places. For instance, the percentage of female service workers employed in domestic service work is 23.9 for municipelities under 100,000 population (Group 7) and 38.8 for municipalities of 100,000 to 500,000 (Group o: It rises to 46.9 percent for the municipality over 500,000 (Group 9). 12. Considering the proportion of male service workers employed in domestic service pursuit, we note the corresponding percentages are : 5.1; 5.0; and 10.6 for municipalities of the respective type-erd-size groups. If we compare the percentage distribution of females with that of males engaged in domestic service, it is evident that "domestic ser- vice" is predominently a female activity. This pattern of sexual divi- sion is accounted for by the traditional female role. 13. In short, a large proportion of female service workers engaged in domestic service does not necessarily reflect the lack of economic progress in larger civil divisions. Although " . . . in an advanced economy there is the substitution of the activities of the household for 167 those of the paid domestic servant . . . JB such substitution is not necessarily to take place at any given level of economic progress. 14. Fourth, there is a general upward gradient in the percentage of manual workers with increasing size of civil division. If we compare Taiwan with Hong Kong, we note: the proportions of males and females employed in such occupations are 26.5 and 24.8 respectively in the largest type-and-size groups whereas in Hong Kong the corresponding proportions are 45.4 and 46.9. This is a consequence of the higher level of indus- trialization in Hong Kong. 15. Index of dissimilarity. -- Another way of looking at the composi- tion of the labor force concerns the sex differences in occupational structure. Table 1 presents the index of dissimilarity for male versus female occupation distributions. A higher index of dissimilarity represents a higher degree of differentiation in male and female occupation distribu- tions. Examination of the indexes reveals that the larger the civil division, in the main, the more different are the occupation distributions of males and females. The general tendency is for the index to increase from the smallest type-and-size group up to Group 8, with the exception of Group 2. Generally, then, a lower index is produced in smaller civil divisions, predominantly agricultural, where males and females almost share equally the farming activities. Footnotes 1 For details, see Charles P. Loomis and J. Allan Beegle, Rural Social Systems, Prentice-Hall, New York (1950), Stuart A. Queen and David B. Carpenter, The American City, McGraw-Hill, New York (1953), Otis Dudley Duncan and Albert J. Reiss, Jr., Social Characteristics of Urban and Rural Communities, John Wiley and Sons, New York (1956) ( [ss Handbook, 1956-1957, China Publishing Company, p.86, Taipei, 1956 3 There are two kinds of municipalities in Taiwan: a municipality under the jurisdiction of the provincial government, and a municipality under the jurisdiction of a county. Both types are similar with respect to other structural features, however, and it is not felt necessary to distinguish between them for purposes of the present analysis. 4 Arthur F. Raper, Rural Taiwan =-- Problem and Promise, Joint Commission on Rural Reconstruction, p. 175, Taipei (1953) 168 5 For a detailed discussion on the validity of the rural-urban continuum constructed for Taiwan, see D. Y. Yuan, with the assistance of Bdward G. Stockwell, The Rural-Urban Continuum: A Case Study of Taiwan, Rural Sociology, XXIX, No. 3, 247-260 (September, 1964). Also see a condensed version of this paper read by D. Y. Yuan before the annual meetings of the Eastern Sociological Society in Boston, April 10-12, 1964. 6 The occupation classification is based upon ISCO (the International Standard Classification of Occupation) which was used by the 1956 Population Census of Taiwan. For detailed groupings, see Table 10 of the census. 7 The International Standard Classification of Occupations specified that service workers in private households be included in the major occupation group of "service workers". For details, see United Nations, Application of International Stendards to Census Data on the Economically Active Population, (ST/SOA/Ser.A/9), 129 Lake Success (1952) 8 The Spearman rank correlation coefficients for the association between the employed male and female labor force in farm occupations and the rural-urban continuum are - 0.98 and 0.96 respectively. 9 Otis D. Duncan and Albert J. Reiss, Jr., Social Characteristics of Rural and Urban Communities, 1950, John Wiley and Sons, p. 97, New York (1956). 10 For further discussions, readers are urged to refer to Yuan and Stockwell, op. cit. 11 Computed from: Taiwan Provincial Bureau of the Census, The 1956 Population Census of Taiwan. 12 P.T. Bauer and B. S. Yamey, "Problems of Classifying Economic Activity in Underdeveloped Areas", in Lyle W. Shannon (ed.), Underdeveloped Areas, Harper and Brothers, p. 149, New York (1957). 13 Irene B. Taeuber, Hong Kong: Migrants and Metropolis, Population Index, XXIX, No. 1, Table 5, p.13 (January, 1963). pas on D 100 —+100 9”— —j90 so-- —|80 — —170 60 i —60 50 | — 150 RED 40 |— —40 | N N zo 10 N N —j10 o! 0 o [ar nN w + w o I œ xo Type-end-size groups of civil division DS White collar [ ye e d Service \ ® © © e — Fig. 1 --Percentage distribution of the employed male labor force, by broad occupation group, for civil divisions of different type and size, 1956 170 100 . got ° ed ° . + ve . ® 70 : : 60— oa: — . © «e L î ANN | 10 Los NNN e N”*N 3 os o Type-and-size groups of civil division 72 White collar ENS Service Manual jé Farn Fig. 2 --Percentage distribution of the employed female labor force, by broad occupation group, for civil divisions of different type and size, 1956 [ 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 171 TABLE l. --- Index of disimilarity for male versus female occupation distributions, by type and size of civil division, 19562 Type-and-size groups of civil division Index Villages O. Under 5,000 . . +. + + + + + + + + + + 6 0 0 0 9.1 1. 5,000 to 10,00 ...0o oro oooooeoo 120 2. 10,000 to 25,000 ... +... ........ 865 3. 25,000 to 50,000 . ...osoorsoeooooo 13.7 Sub-total e..oÑooocosrooscosods oo eo 93 Townships Lb, 10,000 to 25,000 . ...ossoooooooo 170 5. 25,000 to 50,000 * e *« + + + e © 6 e à + + + e 23.3 6. 50,000 to 100,000 . *« + + e e e » + + + + + + 25.0 Sub-total .….….….….......... 2 2. 3 Muncipalities Te 50,000 to 100,000 * e eo + « + + * e ee + + . e. 31.3 8. 100,000 to 500,000 .. . « ¢ o oo oo oo « 23.5 9. 500,000 and over …..…............ 25.1 Sub-total ec oo es oc eo 0 se 0 ea es 22.5 Taiwan total .. . ooo oo sz ooo cs sa os 0 0 oo 22.5 aFor the procedure of computation, see Duncan and Reiss, Jr., op. cit., p. 99. Source: Computed from The 1956 Population Census of Taiwan: Table 33. 172 TABLE 2. -- Occupational characteristics correlated with the rural urban continum, 1956 Occupational characteristics Percentage employed in white color occupations: 1. males. . e coo Psoe +. + + + + + + + ro 2. females .. . + + + +. +... Percentage employed in fam occupations: 1. males . . . + + + +. + + + + + + + + + + 2. females . +. +. + + + + + + + + + + + + + » Percentage employed in manual occupâtions: 1. males .. . + + + ++... ...... 2. females . . + o + + + + + + + + + + + + + Percentage employed in service occupations: 1. males . . . + + + + + + + +. + + ++... 2. females . . +. +. + + + + +... .... Index of dissimilarity for male versus female occupation distribution . . . « . + + + + + + Spearman rank correlation + 0.99 0.96 + 0.91 173 LA PREVISION DES BESOINS EN MAIN D'OEUVRE DANS LES PAYS EN VOIE DE DEVELOPPEMENT : ASPECTS METHODOLOGIQUES Claude VIMONT, Institut national d'études démographiques, France 1. Jusqu'à une date encore récente, la planification des ressources humaines était pratiauement absente dans les plans d'expansion ou les calculs économiques des pays en voie de développement. Les premiers plans de "L'Alliance pour le progrès" en Amérique Latine ne mentionnaient même pas le facteur "main- d'oeuvre". C'est seulement au cours des dernières années que la planification de la main d'oeuvre a retenu l'attention des responsables politioues et économioues de ces pays. Depuis, elle a fait l'objet d'études dans plusieurs pays. Les orga- nismes internationaux (C.I.T.- U.N.E.S.C.0.— 0.C.D.E.) ont consacré beaucoup d'efforts A ce sujet. 2. Ces travaux sont très différents les uns des autres. Certains par- tent d'un modèle général du développement de l'économie du pays pour en déduire des prévisions d'emploi par secteurs et par niveaux de qualification. D'autres ne s'interessent au'à certeins aspects de l'emploi, dans l'agriculture, dans l'indus- trie ou dans l'artisanat. Les premiers ont le plus souvent une vue trop globale des problèmes de l'emploi et n'analysent pas avec un assez grand détail les besoins en main d'oeuvre de chaque secteur. Les autres ne couvrent pas la totalité des emplois qui peuvent être crées dans une économie en voie de développement et ne portent que sur certains secteurs. C'est pourquoi il a paru intéressant d'examiner sur le plan méthodologique ce problème de la prévision des besoins en mañn d'oeuvre dans une économie en voie de développement, en étudiant d'abord les caractéristi- ques de la prévision de l'emploi dans ces pays et en analysant ensuite avec plus de détail les diverses méthodes qui peuvent être utilisées. Dans cette étude nous n'aborderons en principe que les besoins en main d'oeuvre, nous n'étudierons pas les questions posées par l'évaluation de la population active disponible, Nous étudierons successivement le secteur de l'économie de subsistance et le secteur de l'économie moderne. I - Les problèmes posés par la prévision de l'emploi dans le secteur de subsistance 3. Ce secteur regroupe la majeure partie des exploitations agricoles, 174 consacrées pour la plupart aux cultures vivrières. Il se caractérise par l'absence de recours aux moyens techniques modernes, un bas niveau de produc- tivité et de faibles revenus individuels, et dans le domaine de l'emploi par une faible importance du salariate 4 4. L'évolution de l'emploi ne dépend pas des besoins en main d'oeu- vre nécessaires à l'exploitation agricole. Celle-ci ne se fixe pas en effet d'objectifs de production devant être satisfaits par le recrutement d'un certain nombre de travailleurs. Le niveau de l'emploi "reflète plutôt une pression de l'offre de la main d'oeuvre résultant d'un accroissement de la population en ge de travailler", ainsi que le remarquent MM.Kailas Doctor et Hono Gallis dans une étude sur l'emploi en Asie (1). Le facteur essentiel qui fixe le niveau de l'emploi est le nombre des membres de la famille qui doivent vivre sur l'exploitation, la prévision de l'emploi se ramène au calcul des perspectives démographiques dans les zones rurales d'un pays en voie de développement. 5e Cependant ce facteur n'est pas le seul qui commande le niveau de l'emploi. Ceci ne serait vrai que s'il n'y avait aucun mouvement d'exode de population active de ce secteur vers le secteur moderne. Or il n'en est pas ainsi. Un exode important, mal connu statistiquement, existe et ne fera que se développer dans les années à venir. Le mécanisme de cet exode est très différent de celui de l'exode agricole dans un pays développé. 6. Dans les économies en voie de développement, l'exode rural des exploitations de subsistance vers le secteur de l'économie de marché, c'est- à-dire en fait de la campagne vers la ville ne correspond pas le plus sou- vent à un accroissement d'emplois urbains. Sous l'influence de la dégradation des conditions de vie et de la misère qu'entraînent la pression démographique, l'exiguité : des exploitations, l'usage de techniques primitives de produc- tion, le chômage et le sous-emploi chronique, la main d'oeuvre rurale aban- donne fréquemment la campagne en antioipant sur les perspectives d'un avenir meilleur dans les milieux industriels. Une enquête effectuée au Sénégal en 1962 à montré que le chômage se concentrait surtout dans la région de Dakar et résultait, pour une bonne part, de l'importance de l'exode rural, alors que les possibilités réelles d'emploi n'existaient pas. Les jeunes ruraux sont venus en grand nombre s'installer en ville. La solidarité africaine a fait qu'ils ont amené leur famille avec eux ce qui accroft encore le nombre des demandeurs éventuels d'emploi. 7. Un calcul des perspectives d'exode rural devra donc être égale- ment effectué. Il devra tenir compte non seulement des perspectives d'évolu- tion de la population vivant dans les exploitations de subsistance, mais (1) Revue Internationale du travail, B.I.T. Genève Déc.1964 175 aussi de deux autres analyses : les espoirs d'amélioration des rations alimentaires de cette population, qui peuvent diminuer l'émigration de "misère" et les perspectives d'accroissement des emplois dans le secteur de l'économie de marché, qui devraient constituer théoriquement la limite supérieure de cette émigration. Ce calcul est nécessairement très délicat et ses résultats approximatifs. II — La prévision de l'emploi dans le secteur moderne, 8. Ce secteur groupe les exploitations agricoles de type moderne dont l'objet principal est de vendre leur production: l'industrie, le bâtiment, les transports, les services, l'administration. À ce secteur se trouve rattaché l'artisanat, même lorsqu'il s'exerce sous sa forme tradi- tionnelle, car sa production est vendue sur le marché. Les caractéristi- ques de l'expansion économique de ce secteur sont très différentes de celles de l'expansion économique dans les pays développés. 9. Sans doute dans ceux-ci le taux de croissance annuel du pro- duit intérieur brut peut-il connaître quelquefois de brusques variations d'une année à l'autre. Mais à travers ces variations conjoncturelles, le développement de l'économie à moyen et long terme est en définitive assez régulier pour deux raisons fondamentales : l'élévation du niveau de vie entraîne une modification de la structure de la demande de biens de consom- mation, qui se fait plus ou moins rapidement selon les aléas de la conjonc- ture, mais suit toujours les "lois" maintenant relativement bien connues. Les progrès techniques, nombreux dans ces économies, assurent une moderni- — sation progressive des entreprises qui exclut presque toujours tout à-coup brusque dans l'évolution des structures de l'emploi. 10. Dans les pays sous développés, l'expansion dépend essentiel- lement de la réalisation de grands projets (barrages d'irrigation, exploi- tation de mines, construction de complexes industriels, ouverture de rou- tes ou de lignes de chemin de fer) qui exigent des recrutements en main d'oeuvre directement liés à la nature des projets entrepris et apparais- sent brusquement dans ce payse 11. Les conséquences de ces différences dans les caractéristi- ques même de l'expansion économique, sur la méthodologie de la prévision de l'emploi sont importantes. Les méthodes de prévision de l'emploi utili- sées traditionnellement dans les pays à haut niveau industriel ne peuvent l'être dans les pays en voie de développement, car elles supposent, toutes, un développement régulier et continu de l'économie du pays. D'autres méthodes doivent donc Être définies, qui prennent mieux en considération les caractéristiques de l'essor économique des pays sous développés. Nous présenterons les principales d'entre elles en examinant successivement chaque branche du secteur moderne. 176 a. L'agriculture moderne. 12. Le passage de l'agriculture traditionnelle à une agriculture moderne exige que soit ‘ entrepris un ensemble d'actions dont les principa- les sont dans tous les pays, le développement et la vulgarisation de l'enca- drement agricole, dans certains d'entre eux, des travaux d'irrigations, la colonisation des terres, la réforme agraire. La prévision de l'emploi dans ce secteur passe par l'analyse des besoins en main d'oeuvre nécessaires à la mise en oeuvre de ces différentes actions et non par la prévision d'un objectif de production agricole et de prespective d'évolution de la produc- tivité globale. Il est donc nécessaire d'évaluer ces besoins en main d'oeu- vre spécifique. 13. Le calcul des effectifs nécessaires à la vulgarisation des techniques agricoles modernes et à l'encadrement des agriculteurs suppose qu'un plan d'ensemble ait été établi, qui détermine l'importance des efforts à entreprendre et les étapes de la réalisation et comprenne un plan de re~ crutement du personnel nécessaire, quisera l'une des bases de la prévision de l'emploi dans ce secteur. 14. Pour produire tous leurs fruits, les efforts en faveur de la vulgarisation et de l'encadrement des agriculteurs doivent souvent être accompagnés d'un programme d'irrigation, de colonisation des terres inex— ploitées, ou d'une réforme agraire. Un système bien établi de retenue d'eau a des conséquences favorables sur l'amélioration des rendements et la pro- longations des périodes végétatives. Mais le système ne sera pleinement efficace que si les structures des exploitations et la formation des agri- culteurs sont adaptées à la situation nouvelle, Il faut donc prévoir les structures d'emploi nouvelles à mettre en place et calculer sur combien de personnes devront porter les efforts de formation professionnelle complé- mentaire. 15. Les préoccupations de l'emploi agricole conduisent . de nombreux pays à s'engager également dans la voie de la colonisation des terres et de l'utilisation des périodes de sous-emploi, La connaissarce de ces projets est indispensable à la prévision de l'emploi, car #ls consti- tuent un élément essentiel de l'évolution de la population active agricole et des besoins de formations dans les années à venir. 16. Enfin un autre facteur essentiel à considérer lorsqu'on élabore des prévisions de l'emploi dans un pays en voie de développement est la réforme agraire. On doit savoir si le pays étudié envisage d'entre- prendre une réforme dans ce domaine, et analyser ses conséquences sur les structures de l'emploi agricole. C'est à partir de l'ensemble de ces don- nées que des prévisions de besoins en main d'oeuvre qualifiée pour ce sect teur pourront être établies. b. Le secteur industriel, 17. La prévision de l'emploi dans le secteur industriel se fait en deux étapes : détermination du volume global de l'emploi dans chaque branche de l'industrie, répartion de cet emploi global par groupe de professions ou par niveau de qualification. 1. La prévision de l'emploi global par branche, 18 (a) Les pays en voie de développement ont dans ce domai- ne un avantage sur les autres pays. L'expansion de l'industrie dépend pour une large part de la réalisation de quelques grand projets. Ces projets doivent être étudiés d'avance avec une grande précision, notamment quant aux besoins en main d'oeuvre nécessaires à leur réalisetion et à ceux qu'exigera leur exploitation. La prévision de l'emploi dans ce cas consis- te dans une étude déteillée de ces projets dans le domaine de l'emploi : quelle est la main d'oeuvre nécessaire à la construction d'un barrage, d'un complexe industriel, quels seront les besoins en main d'oeuvre pour assurer le fonctionnement du complexe, une fois celui-ci construite 19 (b) Cette solution est bien entendu la meilleure. Mais elle ne peut toujours Être employée. Les grands projets d'industrialisa- tion ne sont pas toujours suffisamment étudiés à la date où les prévisions de l'emploi sont élaborées, pour ou'une analyse aussi précise de leur in- cidence sur l'emploi puisse Être effectuée. Le développement industriel ne se limite pas aux seuls grands projets. C'est pourauoi une autre méthode est souvent employée, qui consiste à prévoir l'emploi global dans l'indus- trie, à partir des volumes d'investissements prévus dans ce secteur. Elle suppose que l'on connaisse l'effet sur l'emploi de l'investissement, 20. Ceux-ci sont très différents selon les branches de l'industrie. Prenons deux exemples : l'industrie extractive et l'indus- trie du vêtement. Dans la première, les investissements sont généralement très élevés et les créations d'emplois qui en résultent très faibles. Dans la seconde, c'est la situation inverse qui se présente, L'expérience du plan marocain de développement industriel de 1960-64 montre que l*'ex- ploitation des mines de phosphates a nécessité 32.500 millions de francs marocains d'investissement et entraîné le recrutement de 350 personnes. Dans l'industrie du vêtement les investissements se chiffraient à 3.120 millions de francs et les emplois crées à 7,380. La méthode de prévision de l'emploi fondée sur l'importance des investissements n'a donc de valeur que si ceux-ci sont répartis par branche. 21 (€) En l'absence d'une répartition du volume des in- vestissements par secteur, les calculs de prévision se ramènent à des hypothèses simplistes. Etudiant les perspectives de l'emploi au cours du 178 ‘plan décennal 1960-1970, le Service tunisien du Plan évalue l'emploi global dans le secteur privé d'après les investissements prévus s'élevant à 150 millions de dinars, en prenant trois hypothèses : Hypothèse À : 2.000 dinars par emploi, soit 75.000 emplois Hypothèse B : 3.000 dinars par emploi, soit 50.000 emplois Hypothèse C : 3.750 dinars par emploi, soit 40.000 emplois(2) Ces hypothèses se différencient les unes des autres par la répartition des investissements par branches. Cette analyse des investisse= ments paraît dans ce cas insuffisamment détaillée. 11. La prévision de l'emploi par groupe de professions. 22. L'emploi industrieh étant défini dans chaque secteur, il reste à le répartir par profession et niveau de qualification. Pour cela, on peut se référer à la structure des entreprises insdustrielles modernes déjà créees dans le pays étudié. En République arabe unie, on arécemment analysé la structure de l'emploi dans les firmes techniquement les plus avancées. Elle a été considérée comme une image de la structure de la main d'oeuvre dans les diverses branches de l'industrie (3). En Grèce, on a étudié les différences de structure actuelle entre les firmes d'une même industrie. On a admis que la structure de l'emploi dans les entreprises les plus grandes et les mieux équipées préfisure l'avenir et que la structure proféssionnelle dans chaque branche d'activité entre I960 et 1975 reflètera . situation existant dans les secteurs les plus développés de l'industrie Grecque en I960 (4). 23. On peut également prévoir la structure de l'emploi par des comparaisons internationales. Il s'agit de comparer les projections faites pour une branche d'activité avec des éléments tirés de la branche corres- pondante dans des économies étrangères plus développées. Pour calculer les besoins dans certains secteurs de l'économie du Nigéria, M.Ashby s'est servi de quelques coëfficients obtenus par analogie avec l'expérience d'autres pays en voie de développement, en particulier, l'Egypte (5). Il (2) Cité in "La formation des cadres africains en vue de la croissance économique" (Thèse de doctorat) par MeAlbert Teveedjre, Paris,JuilletI965 (3) Manpower Planning in the United Arab Républice Institue of National Planning R.A.U. Novembre I966, p.69 (4) Projet régional méditerranéen : Grèce; O.C.D.E.Paris; P.I34 (5)Ashby "Investmant in Education" report of the commission on Post- School Certificate and High Education in Nigéria, Federal Ministry of Education, Lagos, 1960, 179 est évident qu'on ne peut recourir aux comparaisons internationales qué si on a affaire à des pays ayant un système économique et des traits socio- économiques communs. On doit avoir également une parfaite connaissance des objectifs à moyen et long terme de l'économie considérée et des différentes étanes de son évolution, et une documentation statistique cohérente. Enfin ces comparaisons internationales n'ont de valeur oue si elles portent sur des branches précises. ce l'artisanat 24. L'artisanat gardera une place importante dans les pays en voie de développement, la prévision de l'emploi doit donc porter également sur ce secteur. Mais diverses formes d'artisanat doivent être distinguées. L'artisanat traditionnel des campagnes dépend d'abord des besoins en maté- riel agricole. Le nombre de forgerons et charrons qui font ou réparent les houes, charrues et charrettes, des bourreliers oui assurent la fabrication ou la réparation des harnais peut être en aurmentations Des emplois nou- veaux de mécanisiens ruraux doivent apparaître. 25. L'artisanat traditionnel des villes, évolue parrallèlement à l'expansion des échanges économiques du fait de l'élévation du revenu national par tête et de l'accroissement de la demande. En effet, plus le revenu par tête augmente, plus la propension à consommer les produits arti- sanaux sera grande. Il est probable que l'accroissement de la consommation sera assez élevé dans un premier temps, jusqu'au moment où les consommateurs se détourneront des produits de l'artisanat traditionnel pour acheter des biens de consommation d'origine industrielle. Il ne faut donc pasnégliger les besoins en main d'oeuvre de cet artisanat traditionnel des villes d'au- tant plus qu'à l'heure actuelle le niveau de qualification de ces artisans est souvent assez élevé. 26. Enfin, une place doit être faite à l'artisanat moderne. L'infustrialisation dans ces pays ne peut toujours être assurée par de grandes entreprises. Une nouvelle forme d'artisanat utilisant des techniques de production moderne doit avoir une place dans l'expansion de l'économie. Les besvins en main d'oeuvre nécéssaires à cette nouvelle forme d'artisanat doivent donc être pris en considération. de Les services de type moderne. 27. Ce secteur comprend plusieurs branches : commerce, touris- me, services juridiques, santé (dans la mesure où les soins sont donnés par des médecins exercant en profession libérale), hygiène, presse, radio et cinéma- On éprouve beaucoup de difficultés tant dans les pays de civili- sation indrustrielle que dans les pays en voie de développement, à évaluer 180 l'emploi dans ce secteur pour les années à venir. On ne peut cevendant le négliger, voire même le passer sous silence comme on le fait presque toujours dans les travaux de prévision de main d'oeuvre dans les économies sous-déve- loppées. L'emploi dans ce secteur évolue autant et, parfois, plus vite que dans les autres secteurs En Inde et aux Philippines, notent Doctor et Gallis "ce sont les services qui font apparaître le rythme d'expansion le plus rapi- deseo" Dans le commerce, le volume de l'emploi a augmenté de 99% en Inde de 1951 à 1961, et de 44% aux Philippines entre 1956 et 1961 (6). 28. Ces emplois croissent le plus souvent en fonction du revenu natio- nal par tête. Le manque d'informations statistiques fait qu'il est difficile de préciser la relation entre la courbe de la consommation et les fluctuations du revenu moyen par tête. Toutefois certains travaux peuvent Être effectués per comparaison avec l'évolution récente de pays plus avancés. Pour certains catégories de services tels que ceux rendus aux entreprises, des relations plus précises peuvent être établies : l'emploi varie avec la progression des activités industrielles et agricoles modernes. L'activité des membres des professions libérales (comptables, avoc-ats), évolue en fonction du niveau des affaires. L'augmentation des effectifs dans les entreprises de prestations de services agricoles est liée à l'accroissement de la production et des ex- portations de produits agricoles. Enfin dans certains cas, on peut avoir recours à des normes définies sur un plan théorique. Il en est ainsi pour les besoins en médecins exerçant une profession libérale, problème qui a été étu- dié par 1'0.N.S. e. L'administration publique. 29. Dans les économies en voie de développement, l'administration pu- blique occupe une place dominante. Le secteur public constitue le domaine le plus simple pour la prévision de l'emploi, car celle-ci se fonde le plus sou- vent sur des plans d'action et des normes de personnel. Sur la base des prévi- sions du budget général de l'état et des budgets spéciaux des communes ou des collectivités locales, l'évaluation de la main d'oeuvre dans l'administration publique se fait par la méthode de référence à des normess Conclusion 30. Tout travail correct de prévision de l'emploi passe nécessaire- ment par une analyse beaucoup détaillée des perspectives du développement éco- (6) V.Article cité 181 nomique et social que celle oui est faite le plus souvent lors des travaux de prévisions de l'emploi. Cette analyse détaillée, portant sur tous les secteurs de l'économie et non pas sur l'industrie et la fonction publique comme c'est souvent le cas, est la garantie que le panorama des besoins en main d'oeuvre oui en sera la conclusion donnera une vue complète de ces besoins, 31. Or la nécessité d'une vue concrète des besoins en main d'oeu- vre dans ces pays paraît s'imposer pour que le système scoliare puisse rece- voir une orientation conforme aux besoins de l'économie, Ce problème n'est étudié que depuis quelques années : jusqu'à une date récente, le système sco- lrire s'était en fait développé de façon autonome. L'expérience récente mon- tre qu'une telle situation est dangereuse, car elle aboutit à des cas nombreux d'inadaptation de le main d'oeuvre formée aux besoins réels du pays, Mais le redressement de cette situation exige oue la prévision de l'emploi soit vréci- se et surtout complète, car le système scolaire doit prendre en considération l'ensemble des besoins de l’économie par grands groupes de profession. Une prévision erronée de l'emploi risque de donner au système scolaire une mauvai- se orientation qui serait aussi néfaste que celle aui résultarait de l'absence de confrontation entre besoins en main d'oeuvre et organisation de l'enseigne- mente 182 183 INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR THE SCIENTIFIC STUDY OF POPULATION SYDNEY CONFERENCE 21st - 25th August 1967 SESSION IV "THE IMPLICATIONS OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS FOR EDUCATION POLICY" Moderator ¢ H.VW.S. Philp Tuesday, 22nd August, 1967 11.15 a.m. to 1.00 p.m. 185 Speculations on Population Growth, Education and Economic Development in ECAFE Countries by H.V. Muhsam, Hebrew University, Jeruslaem, Israel le The Conference of Hinisters of Education and llinisters responsible for Economic Planning of E.C.A.F.E. region (or mostly of this region) of November 1965, considered, among other things, that "when educational development plans are consolidated in national, social and economic development programmes, not only must the financial needs of educational development be included in the economic programme, but also the manpower needs for economic development and the manpower supply from the development plan of education must be systematically co-ordinated’, The conference also recognized "the impulsion of the logical processes which have led liember States to take an integrated view of education, not in isolation but as an essential and all-pervading element of all economic and social progress..." From the angle of the demographer, educational development has two major implications: & education has been observed to have a direct effect on the demographic behaviour of the population; for instance, fertility and mortality are, in many societies, negatively correlated with the degree of education; and the propensity to migrate correlates positively with education; and be rapid population growth puts a heavy burden on the resources of a country if it is attempted to make education available to all youngsters, while, at the same time it permits a rapid replacement of an uneducated or insufficiently (or inappropriately) trained, existing labour force by better educated younger generations. 2. In the present communication we shall be concerned only with this last aspect. An attempt will be made to get some information on the relations between education population growth and economic development, neglecting, for the sake of simplicity, many other factors which are involved. de We shall consider the level of economic development to be measured by part of the per caput national product, which is available for consumption, and study this as a function of the extent of education and of the rate of population growth. In particular, we shall follow the approach proposed at a recent symposium (1) of considering 186 the rate of population growth as the main independent variable of the problem and the per caput product, or the part of it which is available for consumption, i.e. the level of living as the main dependent variable. The extent of education, or expenditure for education will be considered as a parameter of the situation, whilh may, obviously assume different values. It has been suggested by various contributors (2,3) to the above mentioned symposium, that it would be of interest to determine the rate of population growth which maximises the per caput national product or the level of living; here we must add: for a given extent of educational services, Le The portion of per caput income available for consumption, which is thus maximized fer, may be that obtaining immediately after a given practice of supply of educational services has been established, or that obtaining after a certain lapse of time - say, twenty, thirty or fifty years, or finally that which would be reached after a considerable length of time, when a stable situation is established; in brief, we may consider the short run, the intermediate run or the long run. 5. In our analysis we shall make the following assumptions: a. The population under consideration is stationary. The level of mortality is given and the GRR which, for the given level of mortality maximizes the dependent variable, is the unknown of the problem. be. At the beginning of the period which is being analyzed, the labour force has a given average education, and a stationary state has been reached, i.e. this average level is the same for all ages. ce The additional education whose effect on economic development is being studied, rises the average level of education of a birth cohort by an amount which is proportional to the amount spent for education and inversely proportional to the size of the cohort. de The national product is a function of the size of the labour force and the level of its education. It will be assumed to be proportional to the size of the labour force and also proportional to the increase in education. 187 es The budget for education is deducted from the national product and reduces the amount available for consumption. It will be assumed, in the following, that the proportion of the national product which can be made available for financing education is one of the given constant parameters of the situation. But it is obvious that the absolute amount depends on the total national product, which on its part is a function of the level of education. These assumptions may be expressed qualitatively as follows: 6. Let us consider the contribution (y) to the national product (Yt) of a person of working age who has undergone the "regular" education to be a constant for all times and ages. The additional (beyond y) contribution (Zt) to the national product of a person who has undergone the additional education (bt) is a function of time because of changes in the amount of the additional education, which determines this additional product. Thus if Pt is the stable population Labour force o time t, the national roduct is _- ? *% - yr Ru Ze where D}. is, at time t, the number of members of the labour force of age x who, at an appropriate number of years (u) pefore the time t had the advantage of an additional education Pt-u. This additional education enables them to produce the additional product Zt. This product is assumed to be proportional to the education Pt-u, i.e. Zt = 3Pt-u. The amount of education which can be made available, or the budget for this education is assumed to be a given proportion out of the national product Yt. This amount must be divided among all members of the school age population St. Thus b, = § (Ry + ZR 2 NS, and Ze - 8/7 + ZH x pi Finally, at any time (t) the amount available for consumption per caput, or the level of living, CR )? A- 7 + ( wy rz fx == Es Le- 5/24 2/4 = where Qt is the dea EA at time t. 188 This is the function which should be maximized either for a given value of t, or for the sum over all values of t up to a certain value, or for t approaching infinity, always being considered as a function of the rate of growth of the population. This rate reflects itself, for a given life table, in the proportions Pt i.e, the percentage of the labour force out of the total population, in Rw) Sten i.e. the ratio of the labour force to the school age population and x RE, x xn i.e. the ratio of certain sections of the labour force to the school age population, se On the other hand, Br Stu is the ratio of a section of the labour force to the school age population u years before,-and this depends on mortality only. Ultimately, and this is the factor of principal interest in the Presany context, the relative size of the labour force 4 , and its better educated section “A is strongly affected by the rate of population growth: it reflects the speed of replacement of the labour force and is, thus, the factor on which attention is centered, here. Now, with a high rate of natural increase, the number of persons =r x y» Who had the better education, presents already after a relatively short time, a considerable proportion of the total labour force. But, on the other hand, the school age population S,, is, uf der those circumstances large as compared with the labour force 7, and re This latter effect depresses the amount of education ’ available per person as well as the additional product. Te Thus, it can be expected that there will be an optimal rate of population growth where the replacement of the labour force is maximal as compared with the loss due to the necessity of spreading funds which are available for education among many youngsters. This optimum resembles that found by Neichselberger (2) in his study in which education had been disregarded. Be This optimal rate of population growth has been computed for various conditions of mortality, as well as both the other parameters involved. The proportion (5) 189 of the national product which is made available for additional education and the rate of return ) on investment in education. Ib is obvious that the factor y i.e, the proportion of the national product which is invested in education works in both directions: the higher the amount put aside for education, the quicker the improvement of productivity; but on the other hand, the lower the amount left for immediate consumption. The former effect is obviously the stronger in the long run, while the latter weighs heaviest in the short run. Furthermore, the only effect of the rate of return on investment in education ( B ) is to make this type of investment more worthwhile; the more opportunities for such investment, i.e, the quicker population growth, the better advantage can be taken of this possibility. 9 It is also easily seen that, in the short run, - but completely independently of the proportion of the national product set aside for education and of the rate of return on such investment - the lower the rate of population growth, the quicker "economic development" as here defined, Indeed, as the amount spent on education is independent of the number of the school age population, the fewer children are born, the higher the amount available for consumption per person, because there are so few children to be fed without contributing to the national product, In the long run, i.e. an indefinitely long time after establishment of the "new!" pattern of budgeting for education, it is likely that two situations may be distinguished: (a) the size of the funds which can be made available, out of the national product, suffice to rise educational levels indefinitely, i.e. in the long run, there are no budgetary limitations to the amount of education which is made available. In practice the educational level must be assumed, in this case, to remain ultimately, stable and \leichselberg's model become applicable, with the difference, that "education" must now be introduced as an element of consumption patterns. This increases the amount consumed by young persons in comparison to the amount consumed by adults. Thus an older age structure, or a lower rate of natural increase assures a higher average level of 190 consumption. And as even in Weichselberger's study a negative rate of natural growth assures the optimal average per caput consumption, an even lower rate, i.e. more rapid decline of the population will now be optimal, in the sense of our discussion. (vb) on the other hand, if the percentage of the national product, which can be made available for education does not suffice, in the long run, to assure an ever rising level of education, the level can only be ever decreasing. This can, in no case maximize per caput consumption and this case can therefore also be discarted. We have not yet investigated whether a stationary case, i.e. a case where the level of education approaches asympBotically an intermediate level - or a case of indefinite fluctuations, if possible, But it seems that if they are possible they are unlikely to occur. 10. Thus neither the long run nor the short run can be expected to lead to new and interesting conclusions of practical applicability in comprehensive planning, including education, population growth and economic development, Ve are therefore led to study the effect of education and population growth on economic development at a relatively short interval after the establishment of certain regimes in both fields. As mentioned before, we could study the total amount available for consumption from the establishment of the regime up to a certain moment, say 30, or 50, years after the establishment of the regimes, or only at this moment. 11. As the initial investment in education is relatively large, i.e. investments are made about 10 years before they start to yield returns and continue to do so for about 50 years, it is preferable to strike the balance for the whole period from the establishment of the regime to the considered moment, if this period is relatively shorte Only for long periods decreases the impact of the initial investment. 12. It should finally be mentioned that demographic investment has been disregarded in our model. Obviously, rapid population growth requires high demographic investment which decreases the amount available for consumption. 191 13. Within the space permitted for communications to this congress, no results can be presented, They will form the subject of future publication. References (1) First International Demographical Symposium, Leipzig, 20-24 Sept. 1966. See H.V. Muhsam, Population, vol.21, 1966. pp /222 —/227. (2) Weichselberger, K. Ontimale Bevoelkerungsentwicklung tes | derwirtschaflichen Leistungs faehigkeit ibid (3) Muhsma, H.V., The effect of population growth on the change in educational characteristics of the labour force (ibid.) 192 A DEMOGRAPHIC APPROACH TO EDUCATIONAL PLANNING IN PAKISTAN by Masihur Rahman Khan” Staff Demographer Pakistan Institute of Development Economics Karachi Introduction 1. A high fertility population maintains a broad based age pyramid and hence the proportionate size of its school age population (say children 5-14) is high relative to that in a low fertility population. A rapid improvement in infant and child mortality further increases this proportion. In a high fertility but a declining mortality population the load of the school age population (say 5-14) per adult (say 20+) is also much heavier than that in a low fertility population. 2. The purpose of this paper is to show the impact of the demographic factors on educational planning in Pakistan. In order to do so, the characteristic features of education and educational policies in Pakistan will be discussed and the educational targets in the development plans will be evaluated. In the light of the past achievements and future promise, the enrolment ratios by single years of age and sex separately for each province will be projected till 1985, and those for all Pakistan will be obtained from them. The school age population by five year age groups and sex for each province is projected under a declining mortality assumption but three separate fertility assumptions. Ultimately the population data in quinquennial age groups are distributed into single years of age, and the projected enrolment ratios are applied to them to obtain school population under separate fertility assumptions. The effect of international migration on the size of the school population is assumed insignificant and hence ignored. *The author is indebted to Dr. lee L. Bean, Research Adviser at the Institute, for his valuable suggestions in improving the quality of the paper. He is also thankful to Mr. DeM. Farooq, Research Assistant, for computational help. ‘ 193 3. The alternative projections of school enrolment are made primarily to show the impact of fertility decline on school population. The study will be in the main limited to the enrolment of students at primary level (grades I-V) and lower secondary level (grades VI-VIII) because the school age population at these two levels only are expected to be most strongly affected by a fertility and a mortality decline during the long term perspective plan period (1960 - 1985), Moreover it is the population at these two levels only for which definíte commitments have been made by the national government to provide for an universal compulsory educationl/ 4. Though it is recognized that there exists a wide difference between the provinces of Pakistan in the levels of education, literacy and enrolment ratios and in their rates of growth, in the age-grade distribution of the school population and in the dropout rates etc., for the purposes of this paper, the discussions will be mainly limited to all Pakistan data. Some Characteristic Features of Educational System and Policies in Pakistan Se Educationally Pakistan is one of the least developed areas in the ECAFE regione. According to the 1961 population census of Pakistan, the literacy rate - defined as percentage of those who can read with understanding any statement of every day life to the total population 15 years of age and over - was only 15.9. The comparable figures for Fhilippines (1960) was 71.9, Thailand (1960) = 67.7, North Viet Nam (1960) - 64.5, Taiwan (1956) - 46.1, Yalaysia (1957) - 47.0, and Turkey (1960) - 38.1, to cite a few examples 6. Still another index of educational development is the enrolment ratio, defined as the percentage enroled in school by age and sex. In Pakistan (1960-63) the enrolment ratio at the first level (enrolments in grades I-VII as a percentage of population 6-12 years) was 34, while the corresponding ratios for Japan, Taiwan, Australia and New Zealand were almost 100; those for the Republic of Korea, Philippines and Ceylon were in high 80's, while those for India, Indonesia, Combodia, Republic of Viet Nam were in middle 50's. In Asia, only;jacs, Nepal and Afghanistan have enrolment ratios below that of Pakistan 7. It is not only that the enrolment ratio is very low in Pakistan, its retention rate - defined as the proportion of those at a grade in a year 1/ Pakistan Planning Commission, The Third Five Year Plan (1965 - 70). Karachi, 189 and 191 (June 1965); see e also paragraph 9. 2/ U.N., Demographic Yearbook 1963, New York (1964). 3/ UNESCO, Perspectives of Educational Development in Asia: À Draft Asian Model, Bangkok (1965). 194 who move to the next grade in the following year - is one of the worst in the ECAFE region. Only about 25% of the students enroled at grade I show up at grade V in Pakistan, whereas the corresponding figures for Japan (1959 cohort) is 99, Taiwan (1957 cohort) - 92, Republic of Korea 1 cohort) = 88, Malaysia (1958 cohort) = 79 and Iran (1956 cohort) » 74%. If "at least four years of full-time schooling is required to make a pupil literate'*, then the wastage in education at the primary level in Pakistan is substantial. Given a low enrolment ratio and a high dropout rate, the result is a huge backlog of school age population. A high fertility and a declining mortality are further adding to the size of the potential school population. 8 Another characteristic feature of educational problems in Pakistan is a much lower literacy and enrolment of girls and women relative to boys and mens In the 1961 population census of Pakistan, only 29.1% of the literates were females. The proportion of girls enrolments at the primary level (grade I-V) in Pakistan in recent years is about one-third of males, and at the lower secondary level (grades VI-VIII) only one-seventh of males. 9. Like many developing countries in the ECAFE region, Pakistan is conmitted to eliminate illiteracy and to provide universal compulsory education at the elementary level. The Commission on National Education recommended free and compulsory education for five years at primary ley 1 (grades I-V) and three years at lower secondary level (grades VI-VIII)7. One of the five major aims of the Pakistan long term perspective plan (1960-85) is,to attain universal literacy by the end of the perspective plan perio + In specific terms the plan envisages an increase in the enrolment ratio to approximately 70% of the primary school age group in 1970 and universal primary education (grades I-V) for five years and universal lower secondary education (grades VI-VIII) for three years during the perspective plan perioad/, In Pakistan the non-demographic factors such as the enforcement of compulsory education, and policies leading to a rapid increase in the enrolment of girls, and reduction of school dropouts, etc. will act favourably in increasing the enrolment ratios in the future¥. Since the enrolment ratios will increase eventually, instead of working with constant enrolment ratios, school population is obtained from a projected rising school enrolment ratios. 4/ Ibid, 3/ Vos >eonemie Survey of Asia and the Far East 1965, Bangkok, 85 1966). 6/ Pakistan Commission on National Education, Report of the Commission on National Education, Ministry of Education, Karachi, 116 (1960). 7 Pakistan Planning Commission, ope Cite, 17. 8/ ibid., 189-191. 2/ Cf., United Nations/UNESCO, Estimating Future School Enrolment in Developing Countries, Population Studies No. 40, New York, 8-9, (1966). 195 The Enrolment Ratios 10. The enrolment ratios were estimated for ages (5-14) in single years of age and sex as of July 1, 1962 and projected upto July 1, 1985 separately for each province of Pakistan. The enrolment ratios for all Pakistan in single years of age and sex were obtained by weighing the provincial enrolment ratio by the corresponding provincial population. For the purposes of the paper, however, only the selected values of the estimated an projected enrolments for all Pakistan w 11 be primarily discusse . 11. For the initial school enrolment ratios, the school year 1962-63 was chosen as the base because it is the only year for which East Pakistan enrolment data by single years of age, grade and sex were available. The age breakdown of the 1962-63 enrolment data for West Pakistan was not complete as enrolments at certain terminal ages by levels were lumped together. The detailed age breakdowns under each grade by sex for these data were obtained by applying the age distribution of enrolments in that province in 1959-60 for which detailed data were available. Minor adjustments were made in the 1959-60 West Pakistan enrolment data to remove obvious irregularities. The enrolment data in each province refer to the middle date of the academic year: July 1, 1962 in East Pakistan and October 1, 1962 in West Pakistan. The enrolment ratios of West Pakistan were weighted by the population as of July 1, 1962 so that the estimated and the projected enrolment data for both the provinces refer to July 1 of a year. 12. In order to obtain the ultimate enrolment ratios of Pakistan for 1985, the enrolment ratios of Portugal (1960) 19 ages 7-14 and those of UeKe (1951) for ages 5-6 were chosen as models e The female enrolment ratio at each age in 1985 were set at 75% of that of male. The enrolment ratios are assumed to increase linearly over the projected period, July 1, 1962 = July 1, 1985. The estimated and projected enrolment ratios in quinquennial age groups for Pakistan and its provinces by sex are shown in Table 1. As can be seen from this table, West Pakistan starts with a lower ratio than East Pakistan, and the growth of enrolments there are ° assumed faster than that in East Pakistan. In order to reduce the gap between 10/ The detailed procedure for obtaining the estimated and projected enrolment data by single years and sex separately for each province and all Pakistan, and à further analysis of these data are forthcoming. 11/ On a visual comparison of the enrolment ratios of East and West Pakistan with those of various other countries, the Portuguese enrolment ratios were found to be closely related to Pakistan data. The enrolment ratios in Pakistan at ages 5 and 6 are quite high resembling the pattern of U.Ke, and hence the ratios at these two ages in U.K. (1951) were taken as the ultimate model for these ages in Pakistan (1985), See U.N., Demographic Yearbooks, 1956 and 1964, New York (1956 and 1965). 196 relative levels of males-females enrolment ratios, the female enrolments are assumed to grow faster than males. This pattern of interwing and the sex differentials in the assumed, rate of growth of enrolments are consistent with the past trends and the future prospects for educational development in Pakistan, though the overall improvements in the projected enrolment ratios gre less optimistic than the development plan targets (paragraphs 8-9 The Population Data 13. Using the adjusted age distribution from the 1961 population census of Pakistan and the most recent data on fertility and poytality made available by the Population Growth Estimation Pro ject, » three separate population projections (1960-85) were made under a feglining mortality assumption and three separate fertility assumptions 14. Mortality is assumed to decline exponentially with appropriate regard to the sex and interwing differential patterns in mortality. The expectation of life at birth for females in Pakistan were found to be higher than males in 1962-63. In our projected mortality improvements, this situation is reversed to make the sex differentials in mortality more compatible with U.N. and Princeton Model Life Tables. In the projected life tables the expectation of life at birth for males increased by 11.57 12/ The average yearly rate of increase of enrolments at the elementary level (grades I=VIII) in 1958-63, as calculated from the data provided by the Pakistan Central Bureau of Education, is faster in Pakistan for females (7.7%) than males (6.3%); and for both sexes, it is faster in West Pakistan (8.6%) than East Pakistan (5.3%). The growth of literates in the intercensal period also showed the same pattern. See Jillani, S.M. Changes in Levels of Educational Attainments in Pakistan 1951-61, Pakistan Deve lopment Revi Review, (1964). 13/ See also UNESCO, The Needs of Asia in Primary Education, Studies and Documents No. 4 (ED/60/XII/41a) and UNESCO, Meeting of Ministers of Education of Asian lember States Participating in Karachi Plan, Tokyo April 1962, Final Report (UNESCO/ED.1964). 14/ For a discussion of these data see Bean, Lee Le and Masihur Rahman Khan, Mortality Patterns in Pakistan, and Khan, lasihur Rahman and Lee Le Bean, Interrelationships of Some Fertility Measures in Pakistan, both presented to the 7th All Pakistan Statistical Conference held at Dacca, February 28 - March 2, 1967. 15/ Only the basic mortality and fertility assumptions will be outlined here. For a further details on the methodology of the population projection see, Bean, Lee L., Demographic Aspects of the Potential Labour Force Growth in Pakistan, paper presented to the I.U.S.S.P Sydney Conference, August, 21-26, 1967. 197 years (from 49,18 in 1960-65 to 60,75 in 1980-85) in 25 years in East Pakistan, while the corresponding improvements for females is 16487 years (from 46491 in 1960-65 to 63.78 years in 1980-85). In West Pakistan during the same period the expectation of life at birth for males increases from 51.10 to 61.27 and for females from 48,70 to 63.76 years. 15. The fertility data used in the population projection were the 1963 EGE age specific fertility rates (based gp Chardra.Dening estimate) adjusted for the sex imbalamces at birt s The three fertility assumptions are I: Constant fertility, II: constant till 1970, then 30% linear decline to 1985 and III: constant till 1965, then 50% linear decline till 1985. For the purposes of school enrolment projections, the population data ín the five year agg, groups were split into single years according to the Karup-King formulas, Gains from a Declining Fertility 16. Under assumption I of declining mortality and constant fertility, the rate of increase of school age population (5-14) rises from 5.3% per year in 1960-65 to 5.7% per year in 1980-85, Under this assumption, the growth of the school age population is faster than the growth of the national population. The proportion of school age population (5-14) to the adult population (20+) under this assumption also increases from 67.9% in 1962 to 76.1% in 1985. 17. A decline in fertility reduces the proportion of the school age population (5-14) to the adult population (20+) substantially. Thus in 1985 this proportion under the assumptions I,II and III are 76.1% 64.2% and 51.7% respectively. Once fertility starts declining it takes ten years to reduce the proportion of the whole age group 5-9 and another five years to reduce the whole age group 10=14, 18. As can be seen from Table 2, the size of the school population under a declining fertility assumption is substantially smaller than that under a constant fertility assumption. The ratios of the school population (5-14) under fertility assumption III to that under fertility assumption lis 91.5% in 1975, 76.7% in 1980 and only 66.0% in 1985. Thus by 1985, wi th the same enrolment ratios and same mortality assumption but three alternative fertility assumptions, the school population in Pakistan under the constant fertility (assumption I) is about 9 million 16/ See Khan, Masihur Rahman Lee L. Bean and A. Razzaque Rukanuddin, Planning Frogramme, Pakistan Journal of Family Planning, I, (1967). 17/ Ramachandran, KeU., Population Projections and Their Uses in Social Economic and Regional Planning and Policy Making, U.N. Demographic Training and Research centre, Chember, Bombay (1960), Mimeographed. 198 (or 20.70%) higher than that under moderately declining fertility (assumption II) and about 17 million (or 51.5%) higher than that under fast declining fertility (assumption III). Since the enrolment ratios increase over time, the gains from declining fertility is more pronounced in the school population than in the school age population. Needless to say, given a certain amount of national income available for investment in education, other things remaining same, fewer students (under declining fertility) mean more funds available for expenditure per student. 19. From Tables 1 and 2 it can also be seen that to raise the enrolment ratio in the age group 5-14 from 25.2% in 1962 to 67.5% in 1985 ( an increase of 2.7 fold in the enrolment ratios in 23 years), the enrolments are to increase from 7.2 million in July 1962 to 49.5 million in July 1985 under assumption I, to 41.0 million under assumption II and to 32.7 million under assumption III. Thus to attain a 2.7 fold increase in enrolment ratios in Pakistan, school enrolments need be increased 6.8 times under assumption I, 5.6 times under assumption II and 4.5 times under assumption III. A 4.5 times increase in the school enrolment at the elementary levels may be plausible only under a fast declining fertility, and that again leaves 32.57% of the school age population school unattended in Pakistan. The educational objectives of the Pakistan long term perspective plan are thus not only highly optimistic, they are rather unrealistic, and especially so under a sustained high fertility assumption of the population. Under the constraint of limited funds and resources available for educational investments, it is only a fast declining fertility that can help alleviate the magnitude of illeteracy in Pakistan. 18/ The Karachi Plan (UNESCO, The Need of Asia «es, Op. cit) which sets a goal for Asian countries to increase the school enrolment fourfold at the elementary level in twenty years by 1980 is branded as optimistic by the Tokyo Conference (UNESCO, Meeting of Ministers ..., Ops. Cit). 199 Table 1 Estimated and Pm jected Enrolment Ratios (5-14) in Quinquennial Age Groups for Pakistan and its Provinces by Sex, July 1, 1962- July 1, 1985 age 4 July 1 groups 1 1962 4 1970 | 1975 | 1980 I 1985 All Pakistan, Both Sexes 5 - 14 252 «387 «487 «596 «675 5- 9 348 «506 0611 «731 .816 10 - 14 0127 «251 332 422 494 All Pakistan, Males 5 - 9 «511 «654 743 +870 «929 10 - 14 0212 2330 408 «501 «563 All Pakistan, Females 5- 9 179 «351 472 © +584 «697 10 - 14 039 «170 «253 «338 422 East Pakistan, Both Sexes 5- 9 «391 532 629 724 «815 10 - 14 +092 228 «317 «408 495 East Pakistan, Males 5-9 +565 688 764 «850 929 10 = 14 .161 «297 «385 0477 «564 East Pakistan, Females 5-9 214 «369 «487 +592 0697 10 - 14 022 2158 0246 336 423 West Pakistan, Both Sexes 5- 9 0292 «476 «588 «740 2816 10 - 14 0172 «282 «352 «440 «493 West Pakistan, Males 5=- 9 442 «614 «716 898 929 10 - 14 275 372 0435 532 561 West Pakistan, Females 5- 9 «132 «329 0451 e574 «697 10 had 14 061 «185 263 +342 421 Note:- The quinquennial enrolment ratios were obtained from the estimated and projected single year enrolment ratios under Fertility Assumption I. The enrolment ratio in each single year and sex were however assumed same in all the fert lity assumptions. 200 Table 2 Estimated and Pro jected School Population and School Age Population (5-14) in Quinquennial Age Groups in Pakistan under the Three Separate Fertility Assumptions, July 1, 1962 - July 1, 1985 Age groups 0 and fertility | ; dulzt y ; assumptions § 1962 1 1970 ' 1975 ' 1980 ' 1985 School Population (in 000's) 5 = 14 I 7,293 14,693 21,919 34,005 49,515 II 7,293 14,693 21,919 30,967 41,010 III 7,293 14,693 20,052 26,071 32,691 II: I 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 91.1% 82.8% II: 01 100.0% 100.0% 91.5% 76.7% 66.0% 5«9 I 5, 698 10,236 15,271 23,543 33,687 II 5,698 10,236 15,271 20,699 26,974 III 5,698 10,236 13,401 17,252 21,082 II : I 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 87.9% 80,0% II: I 100.0% 100.0% 87.8% 73.3% 62.6% 10 - 14 I 1,595 4,457 6,648 10,462 15, 824 II 1,595 4,457 6,648 10,268 14,036 III 1,595 4, 457 6,648 8,819 11,609 II : I 100.0% .100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 88.7% XI: 1 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 84.3% 73.4% School Age Population (in 000's) 5 = 14 I 28,911 37,947 45,005 57,026 73,332 II 28,911 37,947 45,005 53,805 61,868 III 28,911 37,947 41,879 45,871 49,827 II à I 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 94.4% 84.4% 5 = 9 I 16,376 20,213 25,005 32,217 41,305 II 16,376 20,213 25,005 28,995 33,044 : III 16,376 20,213 21,879 24,163 25,807 Is. IX 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% III : 1 100.0% 100.0% 87.5% 75.0% 62.5% 10 - 14 I 12,535 17,734 20,000 24,809 32,027 II 12,535 17,734 20,000 24, 809 28,824 III 12,535 17,734 20,000 21,708 24,020 II: 1 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 90.0% III : I 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 87.5% 75.0% A 201 IMPACT DE LA CROISSANCE DEMOGRAPHIQUE EN IRAN SUR LES EFFECLIFS DE LA POPULATION SCOLAIRE ENTRE 1966 ET 1986 F.AMINE-ZADEH INSTITUr D'EIUDES EI DE RECHERCHES SOCIALES UNIVERSITE DE TEHRAN INTRODUCTION l. D'une façon très générale, on peut dire que l'augmentation des effectifs de l'enseignement primaire dépend surtout du dévelop- pement de la population. Il est bien évident que tout changement dans les tendances démographiques d'une population a des effets directs sur le nombre des enfants d'Âge scolaire et aussi sur les investissements dans le domaine de l'éducation. D'autre part il faut souligner que les enfants qui, autrefois, ne fréquentaient pas l'école y vont aujourd'hui et cela découle de plusieurs facteurs so- ciaux, économiques et culturels. 2, Au cours des quinze: dernières années, l'augmentation de la population scolaire a imposé plus ou moins au système scolaire, d'ac- cueillir des élèves sans cesse plus nombreux, et l'enseignement s'est “ à la fois généralisé et élargie 3. On rencontre cette situation dans la plupart des pays en voie de développement, elle résulte de l'évolution socio-économique d'une part, et, d'autre part de l'accroissement rapide de leur population. Sous la poussée considérable des besoins éducatifs, une bonne partie de leur budget national doit être consacréeà l'éducation, en particu- lier à l'enseignement primaire, absorbant ainsi une part importante des ressources qui pourraient être consacrées à des investissement de type économique. 4. En vue de montrer l'influence directe de l'accroissement de la population en Iran, nous avons essayé de procéder à une projec- tion de la population scolaire de 1966 à 1986. 5. Avant d'établir cette projection à Iong terme en matière d'é- ducation, nous présentons tout d'abord la situation et les tendances démographiques actuelles du pays. Notre étude se divisera en trois rubriques. : 1- Situation démographique - 2- Projection de la population scolaire 3- Conséquences économiques. 202 1- Situation démographique et perspective de la population 6. Le recensement de 1956, indique un total de 18.954.704 habi- tants sur une superficie de 1.646.000 Km2, soit une densité moyenne d'environ 11,5 par km2. D'après le recensement de 1966, la popula- tion de l'Iran s'élève à 25.782.000 c'est-à-dire qu'on obtient un taux d'accroissement annuel de 3,1%. Si on compare le résultat du dernier recensement à la population ajustée de 1956 (1) ( 19.321.000 ) ce taux tombe à 2,9% . 7. Un tel accroissement maintenu constant dans les prochaines an- nées amênerait un doublement de la population en 25 ans. 8. En ce qui concerne la répartition par âge de la population ajus- tée, en 1956, 43% de la population est agée de moins de 15 ans, 54% de 10-64 et 4% de plus de 64 ans. Cette répartition montre bien le carac- tère très jeune de la population de l'Iran. Ceci réserve pour l'avenir, avec une mortalité en déclin, et une fécondité sans doute élevée, un accroissement considérable. 9. La majorité de la population de l'Iran vit dans les villages de moins de 5000 habitants (69%) et 31% dans les centres urbains. 10. Une autre caractéristique très importante de la population de l'Iran, d'après les données du recensement 1956 est que les femmes se marient très jeune et d'une façon universelle. Tous ces facteurs par- ticipent à l'accroissement très rapide de la population du pays. Pa Perspective de la population de l'Iran 11. Parmi les hypothèses (2) d'évolution de la population de l'Iran nous avons choisi les deux hypothèses extrêmes pour bien montrer la différence résultant de deux séries de taux d'accroissement naturel de la population. 12. Voici les hypothèses de base et les taux d'accroissement y afférents : Tableau No. l-l'aux annuel moyen d'accroissement naturel en p.100 périodes Hypothèses 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 Hypo.maximum Fécondité constante baisse rapide mortalité 2.73 2.87 3.10 3.49 3.79 3.92 203 Hypo. minimum Fécondité décroissante Baisse lente morta- lité 2.73 2.87 3.00 3.03 3.05 3.09 13. D'après ces projections l'accroissement de la population de l'Iran sera de toute façon rapide dans les 20 prochaines années. En 1986 elle atteindra selon l'hypothèse minimum 46 millions et selon l'hy- pothèse maximum 51 millions. L'accroissement considérable se manifeste surtout dans les groupes des jeunes. Et Ieurs poids dans la population {totale tend à s'accroître de plus en plus. 2- Projection de la population scolaire (1966-1986) a)- enseignement primaire : 14. Nous avons utilisé les données statistiques de 1966, comme base de notre projection. Nous avons examiné les statistiques scolai- res, en insistant sur les données démographiques. Et nous avons tenu compte surtout du taux d'inscription des enfants en lère année. La raison de ce choix est qu'au lieu de 7 ans, on voit de plus en plus d'en- fants entrer à l'école à 6 ans. Il convient de souligner que la scolari- sation est assez avancée dans Iles villes, mais en retard dans les zones rurales. De même il y a une grande disparité entre les filles et les garçons pour des raisons socio-culturelles. 15. Enfin il faut dire que pour des causes d'ordre social, écono- mique et culturel, la dépérdition est généralement élevée dans les régi- ons rurales où le développement de l'enseignement primaire a été relati- vement restreint. 16. On a tenu compte des tendances relatives à la scolarisation des enfants d'une part et du taux de survie (3) entre les classes d'autre parte En se basant sur le taux de scolarisation (50%) en 1966, on a pré- vu un taux de (90%) pour l'année 1986. Le tableau suivant présente les projections de l'enseignement primaire selon deux hypothèses d'évolution de la population. Tableau No.2 - l'évolution des effectifs de l'enseignement primaire de 1966-1986 (en milliers) deux sexes Hypothèses 1966 197! 1972 1976 1981 1986 Maximum 2.181 3.217 3.495 4.695 5.933 7.673 Minimum 2.181 3.217 3.495 4.671 5.657 6.717 Différence - - - 14 275 956 204 Taux de sco- larisation 50% 66% - 80% 85% 90% Taux d'accroissement ennuel : 1966 1971 1976 1981 1971 1976 1981 1986 Maximum 7.9 7.8 4.8 4.3 Minimum 7.9 7.8 3.9 3.4 17e D'après ces taux d'accroissement, on voit que l'acoroissement annuel des effectifs de 7.9% en 1966, tombera à 4,3 et 3.4% en 1986, et il rejoindra celui de la population totale du pays, puisque, la presque totalité des enfants d'âge primaire sera soolariséee b)- Enseignement secondaire : 18. Les effectifs des écoles secondaires sont fonction des élèves provenant de l'enseignement primaire, et des teux de scolaris:tione On a estimé que 9075 des effectifs des écoles primaires (en 68 année) dans les villes et 3555 dans les zones rureles entra/ont dans l'enseignement secondaire, et nous avons employé le taux de survie précité. 19. Le tableau suivant présente les projections des effectifs de l'enseignement secondaire selon deux hypothèses d'évolution de la popu- lation. Tableau No.3 - l'évolution des effectifs de l'enseignement secondai= re de 1066 > 1986 (en milliers. deux sexes) Hypothèses 1966 1971 1972 1976 1981 1984 1985 = 1986 Maximum 493 785 863 1,080 1.608 1920 2016 2105 Minimun 493 785 863 1,080 1.608 1896 1970 2035 Différence - - - - - 24 46 70 Taux de sco- larisation 175 22% 275 = 34% 37,5% 20. La raison pour laquelle, nous avons présenté les chiffres de la projection par année A pertir de 1984, est que la poussée démogra- phique qui va commencer dès l'année 1976, re se manifestera dans l'en- seignement secondaire qu'à partir de 1984. - Tebleau No.4 - l'évolution du taux d'accroissement naturel dans l'enseignement secondaire (en p.100) Hypothèses 1966 1971 1976 1981 1971 1976 1981 1986 Maximum 12,4 11,2 8,2 5,7 Minimum 12,4 11,2 8,2 4,8 205 21. On voit bien que l'effet de saturation des effectifs de l'en- seignement primaire qui commencera en 1976, ne se présentera comme nous l'avons dit plus haut, qu'à partir de 1984 dans l'enseignement secondaire. c) Enseignement supérieur. : 22. Au contraire de l'accroisssement considérable de l'enseignement primaire et secondaire, les effectifs dans l'enseignement supérieur sont très limités, ils atteignent à peine la moitié des brsoins du payse (4). Il est bien évident que l'augmentation des effectifs dans l'enseignement supérieur ne dépend que partiellement des tendances dé- mographiques, ils doivent s'accroître selon les besoins et lésexigences de l'économie dx pays. 23. Ci-dessous nous présentons la projection établie par l'Organi- sation du Plan jusqu'en 1972 (5) que nous avons prolongée selon le même rythme d'accroissement jusqu'à l'année 1986. l'ableau No.5 — l'évolution des effectifs de l'enseignement supéri- eur de 1966-1986 ( en milliers, deux sexes ) 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1976 1981 1986 31 34,9 39,3 44,1 49,3 56 84 118 160 24. Il est intéressant, pour connaître l'évolution respective des “ effectifs à chaque niveau scolaire. de faire une comparaison avec le modèle asiatique du développement de l'éducation.(6) Répartition d'après le D'après notre projec- modèle asiatique(1980) tion.(1986) Différence Enseigneprimaire 80.-— 77,3 —2,7 " secondaire I8.— 21,2 +2,8 " supérieur 2.- 1,5 -0,5 100.— 100.— 25. Il faut dire que cette augmentation déterminera qu'il faut élargir encore les deux niveaux primaire et supérieur en ralentissant le rythme de celui du secondaire. d) Analphabètisme : 26. Etant donné que la scolarisation ne couvre pas tous les en- fants d'âge scolaire, et que la dépérdition dans l'enseignement pri- maire est importante, surtout à la campagne, nous aurons toujours des analphabétes et cela même parmi les groupes de jeunes. D'autre part, 206 selon les résultats du recensement de 1956, le taux moyen d'analpha- bétes, des deux sexes, de 85%, variait entre 72% pour le groupe d'âges 10 à 14 ans, à 95% pour les personnes âgées. Les groures de 10 ans et plus en 1956, seront les groupes de 40 ans et plus en 1986. En te- nant compte de la projection faite pour l'enseignement primaire d'une part et des taux de survie des différents groupes d'âges d'autre part, après 30 ans Ia population analphabète projetée jusqu'en 1936 sera la suivante : . Tableau No.6 - la répartition par groupes d'áges des analpha- bètes, deux sexes en 1986 (en milliers) groupes d'âges Hypothèse maximum Hypothèse minimum 7-9 -986 809 10-14 1.370 1.222 15-19 1.459 1.400 20-24 1.485 1.469 25-29 1.569 1.548 35-39 1.422 1.398 40-44 1.288 1.265 45-49 1.136 1.114 50-54 1.046 1.024 55-59 885 862 60-64 724 702 65-69 561 539 70-74 393 273 Total 15.908 15.280 27. La différence entre les deux hypothèses est de l'ordre de 600.000 et nous constatons surtout qu'un tiers de la population sera encore analphabète en 1986, 28. Dans le tableau ci-dessous nous présentons la répartition des analphabètes dans la population active des deux sexes. Tableau Ho.7 —- la répartition des analphabètes dans la population active par groupes d'áre groupes d'âges proportion en proportion en ( 1956 1986 15-19 TT, Tÿ 287% 20-24 84,27 35/ 25-29 85,5% 44; 30-34 86,3% 52% 35-39 87,9% 60% 40-44 88, 5% 71,7% 207 groupes d'âges Proportion en proportion en 1956 1986 45—49 90,0% TT,T% 50-54 91,9% 84,0% 55-59 92,0% 85,8% 60-64 92,67 86,5% Total 85,0% 50,05 29. On voit qu'avec l'augmentation de l'áge, le pourcentage des anel- phabètes s'accroît et qu'en moyenne 50% de la population active seront analphabètes. 30. Il est certain que cette. situation peut être estimée avec assez de précision, tant que tous les enfants ne fréquenteront pas l'école, et que la dépérdition se situera à un niveau minimum dans les trois pre- mières années de l'enseignement primaire. Quant à la motivation des en- fants, l'expérience montre qu'une campagne d'alphabètisation doit être lancée à l'échelon national et être considérée comme un des objeutifs prioritaires du développement, c'est-à-dire qu'elle ne peut être laissée a à l'initiative des services administratifs. 3- Conséquences économiques a) aspect financier : 31. Si nous admettons que le coût unitaire (dépenses ordinaires) de ÿ 42, reste toujours constant jusqu'en 1986, nous aurons les résul- tats suivants : Hypothèses 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 (en milliers) Maximum $.91602 $ 135114 8197199 $240186 8322270 Minimum 68 91602 & 135114 8196182 237620 $282117 Différence - - $ 1008 $ 11566 $ 40153 32. De méme pour 1'enseignement secondaire,sinous admettons que le cofit moyen de § 132 reste toujours stable, les résultats seront les suivants Hypotheses 1966 1971 1976 1981 1984 1985 1986 Maximum £65076 $g103620 $ 142296 ¿$%211990 13%£253308 8266112 $278256 Minimum £65076 $103620 8 142296 8211990 _ 8250272 $260040 #268356 Différence - - - FS $ 3036 $ 6072 $ 9900 b) Probltmes du recruétement des maftres _ 208 33. Du point de vue des cadres enseignants de l'enseignement ) primaire, si nous admettons que le rapport maître/élèves demeure constant, soit un maître pour 35 élèves, nous aurons le résultat sui- vant 3 Hypothèses 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 Lieximum 55434 91900 134165 169511 219233 Minimum . 55434 91900 133472 161648 191916 Différence - — 693 7863 27317 34. Et pour l'enseignement secondaire, selon le rapport profes- soeur/élèves fixé à 0,033, le résultat sera : Hypothèses 1966 1971 1976 ‘1981 1984 1985 1986 Maximum 17796 26165 35933 53536 63992 67217 70268 Minimum 17796 26165 35933 53536 __ 63223 65674 67791 - - - - 669 1543 2477 CONCLUSION 35. Nous avons vu que la population de l'Iran s'accroissait très rapidement, et nous avons présenté lc: différences résultant de deux hypothèses d'évolution de la population, ces différences atteignant 5 millions d'habitants en 1986. L'influence dans le domaine de l'é- ducation sera d'une telle disparité très importante. 36. En cas d'évolution ranide, il faudrait scolariser 956,000 enfants de plus dans l'enseignement primaire qu'en cas d'évolution lente. 11 faudrait de même accueillir 7C.000 enfants de plus dans l'enseignement secondaire. 37. Quant à l'alphabètisation, l'hypothèse forte implique des dépenses supplémentaires pour environ 500,000 analphabètes, par rap- port à l'hypothèse lente. 38. Du point de vue des dépenses de l'éducation, la différence entre les deux hypothèses s'élève à US ÿ 50 millions, somme considé- rable pour un pays en voie de développement d'autant qu'elle repré- sente, et ceci pour donner un ordre de grandeur, 15 pour mille du bud- get national et 1975 du budget de l'éducation en 1346 (1967-68). Cet investissement supnlémentaire ralentira évidemment le développement d'autres secteurs économiques du pays. 39. Nous avons essayé de présenter dans cette étude: les diffé- rences existant entre deux hypothèses extrêmes d'évolution de la population iranienne du point de vue de l'éducation et le rythme ~ 209 d'accroissement des charges scolaires qui résultent de l'expansion dé- mographique. Nous pensons qu'un tel schéma d'évolution probable doit permettre de prendre conscience de la dimension d'un des problèmes à résoudre pour l'Iran dans les 20 prochaines années. BIBLIQERAPHIE l et 2 - J.C. CHASIELAND et M.AMANI et 0.A.PUECH. La population de l'Iran, perspective d'évolution 1956-1986, l'éhéran, 1966. 3- Ministère de l'éducation Nationale: Problèmes de dépérdition scolaire en Iran. Téhéran, juillet 1966. 4- AMINE-ZADEH: Nombre optimum des effectifs au niveau secondaire et supérieur en Iran( application d'un modèle économique à l'enseignement). publié par l'Organisation du Plan. Téhéran, 1967. 5- Organisation du Plan: Rapport préliminaire de l'enseignement supérieur, l'éhéran, 1967. 6- UNESCO : An asian model of educational development. Paris, 1966. 7- ExG. JACOBY: L'application des méthodes de projection aux effectifs scolaires. UNESCO, No.32, Paris, 1959. 8- I.E.D.E.S. Problèmes de planification de l'éducation. Série l'iers-Monde. Paris, 1964. O 1 MINISTRY OF EDUCATION : Educational statistics in Iran. Téhéran, 1964, 1965, 1966 et 1967. 1. 2. 3. 210 EDUCATIONAL IMPLICATIONS OF POPULATION GROWTH IN THE TERRITORY OF PAPUA AND NEW GUINEA. T.M. Beck B.,A., B.Ed., Special Projects Officer, Department of Education, Port Moresby. In a country with universal education and a reasonably stable educational system it is obvious that the education enrolment needs to increase each year by a number approximating the number of children born in that community about six years earlier. In the Territory of Papua and New Guinea there are no accurate birth statistics available for the Territory as a whole. However official estimates of the population by districts are shown for 1960 and 1966 in Table I. Part of the increasing growth rate is due to increased life expectancy for adults, but the main contribution is due to the falling infant mortality rate, which results in a corresponding growth of the school age population. The educational implications of population growth are less obvious in a developing country than in a country which already has universal education, although if we assume that education for all is a good thing, the implications are probably more serious. In a developed country it becomes immediately obvious when the population of an area outgrows its educational facilities, and the government is virtually obliged to provide whatever is necessary without delay. Further, a developed education system providing for a 3 percent increase in school aged children simply increases its facilities by 3 percent. In a developing system, however, which provides education for only 50 percent of the country's school-aged children, a 3 percent rise in school-aged children represents 6 percent of the current enrolment. A developing system thus has to grow at a vastly greater percentage rate than a developed system if it is eventually to provide universal education. Se 6. 211 The enrolment of schools in Papua and New Guinea for 1960 and 1966 is shown in Table I. There has been a progressive decline in the rate of expansion of Primary education in recent years. The reasons for this are two: the Administration, in line with World Bank and other recommendations, has decided that more emphasis must be placed for some time on economic development rather than on services, and that within the Department of Education greater relative emphasis should be placed on post-primary education of all forms, with the hope that this will eventually result in a substantial backflow of better qualified people again to advance the cause of primary education, However, even when primary education was being given priority, some 5 or 6 years ago, it is doubtful whether the rate of increase was even enough to provide for the annual population growth, let alone make substantial progress towards universal primary education, which has often been mentioned as a goal of the Administration. Now, and for the near future, it appears that while the population is growing at an increasing rate, the percentage enrolment in primary schools will be approximately stationary. In a developing country, then, population growth creates a proportionally heavier burden on educational resources than in a developed country, yet because there are so many people without education already, the need created by the increase in population is not always recognised as an immediate "pressure". Pressure for education in a developing country arises from several interrelated sources: (a) A spreading awareness of the personal and social benefits apparently gained from education. (b) Political development, which may run ahead of general community pressure as a result of the work of minority groups. Such pressures may arise either because the politicians are genuinely trying to arouse the community's interest in education for the benefit of the people, or else because they stand to gain politically by engaging in agitation of various kinds. (c) Snowballing economic needs. A cash economy requires educated people not only to produce goods but also to use them. (d) Urbanization. This is in fact population growth in particular localities. It is usual for educational facilities to be most developed in urban areas. Authorities are likely to consider that urban dwellers should have (e) 212 education, which tends both to draw funds away from rural areas and to encourage even further drift to the towns. This could thus be regarded as a localized pressure. National population growth in an underdeveloped country, as discussed earlier, greatly increases the need, but the ‘pressure’ for education depends more on the other four factors mentioned above. 8. Pressure is actually being felt in the Territory on several educational fronts. (a) (b) (ec) (a) International and local pressure for political and executive development has resulted in greater emphasis on higher education. The University of Papua and New Guinea, large scale teacher training facilities at Goroka . for the training of secondary teachers, the Vudal Agricultural College on New Britain, the Bulolo Forestry School, the Papuan Medical College at Port Moresby, and the Institute of Higher Technical Education at Lae are all recently established institutions of tertiary education designed to meet their need for experts in all fields. Related to the pressure at the top level is a need for more skilled workers. Several Government Departments conduct training to, meet their own needs. The number and entry qualifications of apprentices and other trainees for this level of work is increasing as the secondary education system expands. At this stage, then, secondary education is under pressure from two sources: the need for skilled workers and higher educated people, and the primary school graduates who outnumber the places available in secondary schools. The diversion of funds and personnel from primary to secondary education was mentioned earlier. Extension of the secondary course from 4 to 6 years is at present under consideration. A pressure related to that on secondary education is the need for training of semi-skilled workers among those who fail to qualify for secondary education. To meet this need the Department is expanding its system of "vocational schools". These schools provide a transition from primary school to gainful occupation of various kinds according to the requirements and opportunities of the particular location. Subjects such as Mathematics, Science, English, Woodwork, Metalwork and Agriculture are provided at the appropriate level, but the course does not lead to formal qualification. 3 Je 10. 213 (e) Finally, the pressure for expanded primary education continues unabated. It is not to be expected that particular village communities will be willing to forego education just to meet national requirements at a higher level. Politicians are increasingly conscious of the provisions made in each others' electorates. To meet this kind of pressure in the light of national priorities at this stage the possibility is being considered of establishing a modified primary course of 4 years in rural villages which do not already support a full seven year primary school. It may also be feasible now to reduce the established seven year course to six years, which it is anticipated would be balanced by better trained teachers and better methods now becoming available. The four year course would take in pupils at about 10 years of age. The four year curriculum is not yet clearly determined, but it would probably emphasize elementary mathematics and literacy for the first two years and practical skills relevant to improved village life for the last two. It may be possible for a highly selected few from these schools to transfer to a six year school after their first two years, and inevitably the frontier between four year and six year primary schools will be pushed back from year to year in more progressive communities. Perhaps the most important educational implications of population growth in the Territory of Papua and New Guinea is that the mounting demands for universal education resulting from political, social and economic developments will be much more difficult to meet than is usually imagined. Estimates to date have not fully considered population growth in determining the personnel, time, money and enrolment projections required to make realistic progress towards education for all. Although the population figures in Table I must for some districts be treated with caution, there is a fairly consistent pattern in which the increase in population far exceeds the increase in school enrolment. The Bureau of Statistics considers that its overall population estimate for the Territory is correct to within 20,000. The figures given indicate that population growth has been approximately twice as great as the growth in school enrolments. TABLE I Estimated indigenous School Enrolments (Total) Government and non-Government District Population 30th June. recognised schools. 1960 1966 Increase 1960 1966 Increase (1) (2) (3) (4) __(S) (6) Eastern Highlands 338121 355480 17359 3325 14590 11265 Western Highlands 256114 302020 45906 2160 12716 10556 Sepik 247453 256603 9150 4240 17683 13443 Madang 136857 150306 13449 3690 15492 11802 Morobe 190330 204887 14557 5500 16668 11168 New Britain 107362 148817 41455 7130 31557 24427 New Ireland 38813 49246 10433 2710 9780 7070 Bougainville 54627 71762 17135 6470 16645 10175 Manus - 17131 20202 3071 2920 5670 2750 Western 51332 60843 9511 2614 6275 3661 Gulf 63485 55588 -7897 5773 7738 1965 Central 98868 130443 31575 13918 23675 9757 Milne Bay 84850 99050 14200 8672 11137 2465 Northern 48112 56514 8402 4923 11267 6344 Southern Highlands 146871 186539 39668 950 5645 4695 1880326 2148300 267974 74995 206538 131543 * NOTE: The 1960 enrolment figures are conservative, which means that the increase is generously estimated (exact figures are not available because 1960 published figures included substandard "exempt! schools as well as "recognized"). 14% 215 Commonwealth Department of Education and Science Office of Education le The implications for education of any sudden increase in the number of births are widespread and important. Briefly they may be categorised as staffing, accommodation and financial implications, and it is these which have to be considered in order to gauge the effects on education of the post- war increase in the Australian birth rate. 2. An increase in the birth rate is followed by a corresponding increase in the needed educational facilities when the children concerned enter the primary schools at about the age of 5, the secondary schools at about age 12 and the universities at about age 17. 3. Some idea of the extent of the inorease in the relevant period is necessary at this stage. Table 1 indicates how the number of births increased sharply after 1945 and continued to do so until 1961. This increase resulted in the primary school facilities being under pressure from 1950, secondary schools from 1957 and universities from 1962. 4. This situation would probably have been of less than critical signif- icance had it not been for a fall in the birth rate during the thirties. Any attempt to train sufficient teachers for the 1950's was hampered by the fact that teacher trainees were drawn from students born during the years 1930- 1935 when the annual number of births dropped as low as 109,475. It was from this group, born in 1934, that the additional teachers required to cope with the increased primary enrolments arising from the 1948 births of 177,976, had to come. 5. This point is basic to an understanding of the critical years of the fifties, as is the knowledge that during the depression and war years, teacher training and expenditure on education were cut to a minimum so that the teach- ing force and school buildings were at a level no higher than that of basic necessity. At this time only the falling enrolments enabled the schools to carry on. When the population bulge, from the increased birth rate, reached the schools from 1950 onwards a double burden was imposed on education departments. Not only were more teachers and buildings necessary, but the inherited difficulties had to be remedied. 216 6. It £e necessary to realise that the inoreased enrolments were not simply the result of the increased birthrate. A second cause was the develop- ment of the immigration programme during the post war years. The numbers of children arriving as part of this great influx inflicted their share of stress on the available educational facilities. In 1964 the immigrant element was estimated to account for 10% of the total school enrolment. (1) Te - A third factor at work was the increased holding power of secondary schools. Whereas in 1950, of all pupils commencing secondary education in State Government Schools, 39% reached the mid-secondary examination stage, in 1960 the comparable figure was 65%. In the higher secondary grades the change was even more marked. Of every 100 children who commenced secondary studies in government schools in 1950, eight stayed on to the matriculation level year; for children commencing in 1960 the comparable figure was two and a half times as high.(2) This phenomenon did not affect the primary schools as attendance was compulsory and the stress there is easing now that the group born in the forties are providing teachers. On the other hand, until their increasing holding power tends to stabilize, secondary school facilities will continue to be taxed. This fact has implications for the universities. 8. It is clear that it would not be feasible in a study of this kind to separate the effects of the above causes of inoreasing school enrolment, or to study separately their effects on education. Consequently their combined effects will be surveyed. 9. The increases in school enrolments resulting from the causes discuss- ed above are clearly illustrated in Table 2. The pattern followed by the enrolment figures is basically similar for all States. The table shows the trends in enrolments in Departmental schools 1948-1962. (School statistics shown in this paper are limited to government schools. Comparable figures, for non-government schools are not available, however it can be assumed that the i of growth, and the problems arising out of this growth, were similar. 10. The trends in enrolment over the period 1930-1975 may be summarised as follows: a. A period of nearly two decades covering the 1930's and 1940's where enrolments gradually fell and then gradually rose again, returning to the 1931 level by 1943, b. A sharp and consistent rise from 1948 to the present with © annual increases ranging from 43,000 to 71,000, and Ce Indications are that enrolments will continue to inorease during the next decade although in primary schools they will tend to stabilise owing to a fall in the number of births over recent years. 11. More specifically, from 1946 to 1956, the total numbers attending government schools rose from 841,000 to 1,355,000, an increase of 60%. The primary school enrolments in 1952 were up 7.5% on the previous year as comp- - ared with 4.0% for the 1949 increaze. It is not surprising then, that 217 education developed into one of the most pressing and important of national problems. The Teaching Force 12. As stated earlier such an increase in numbers in the schools threw a great strain on the available educational resources. With an ever increas- ing number entering the schools, it is interesting to look at the numbers of students passing the final year of secondary schooling during the relevant years. These students represent the group from which the future primary, secondary and tertiary teachers would be drawn. (See Table 3). During the forties and early fifties there were few teachers in training and it was not until 1953 that there was a sharp increase in the number of students in teacher training colleges. This rise has continued to the point where there were more than 22,000 students in training in 1964, this being four times the number of those in training in 1950. There is now some stability in numbers in primary training courses due to the levelling off of enrolments in primary schools. However, secondary teacher training must continue to expand to cope with the increasing number of pupils. 13. If this is the situation regarding teacher training, what of the numbers of teachers already in the schools? Table 4 shows the growth in their numbers during the period 1952-64. The problem of providing sufficient teachers ie illustrated by comparing the output of teachers' colleges during the years in question with increases in the numbers of teachers in the schools. This, after consideration of the effect of resignation and retirement (accepted by the Committee on Tertiary Education in Australia, known as the Martin Committee, as being approximately 7% of the teaching force per annum), provides some indication of how successfully Departments were coping with the problem of training sufficient teachers. Figures on the supply of teachers ex college are difficult to obtain but records held in the Commonwealth Office of Education show that approximately 6,100 students completed teacher training courses in 1960. (This is supported by figures quoted by the State Ministers of Education). Some 4,000 of these would bs required to replace the 7% wastage mentioned previously, leaving 2,100 to add to the size of the teaching force. However, in 1961, the teaching force increased by 3,500 and the question arises concerning the source of the additional teachers. It may be assumed that similar situations applied for earlier years. 14. Undoubtedly many teachers were found among migrants, retired teachers and teachers returning from abroad. Over and above those, additional temporary and casual teachers appeared on the scene. Temporary teachers were not new. 1945 saw 3,127 such teachers in the Australian schools and by 1947 the figure had increased to 3,700(4). Unfortunately figures for later years are not readily available, but in one State along the number of casual teachers grow from 1,044 in 1951 to 2,129 in 1961, falling to 1,750 in 1963. (5). In an attempt to improve the situation recruitment drives were undertaken in all States and various methods employed to make teacher training more appealing. To cope with the increasing number of trainees additional teachers' colleges had to be opened. In Victoria, 1950 saw the setting up of what was to become 218 the Secondary Teachers' College and the fifties saw the introduction of the Trained Secondary Teachers' Certificate which allowed teachers without completed degrees to receive teacher training and work in the schools. Generally trainees' conditions improved and training allowances increased. 15. The pupil teacher ratio deteriorated slightly as a result of the lack of teachers available. The primary schools ratio 32:1 in 1952, rose gradually to 33:1 and by 1962 had fallen to 30s1. The secondary schools ratio 19:1 in 1952 rose to 20:1 and remained at that level. Accommodation 16. A readily understood effect of increased school population is the accommodation difficulty experienced in schools throughout Australia, throughout the 1950's. During the early years of the decade widespread use was made of old army huts and camps and this emergency accommodation was replaced first by aluminium classrooms which were imported, and later by wooden prefabricated rooms. Gradually, as a result of an increasing government capital expenditure on education, it became possible to erect more permanent school buildings. Nevertheless the State Ministers of Education stated in 1964 that more than 1,000 classroom units were needed to replace unsatisfactory accommodation. Educational Expenditure 17. Perhaps the clearest conception of the effect of increased enrolments on State education is provided by a study of State expenditure. Table 5 shows that recurrent expenditure by the States on education rose from $62,992,000 in 1949/50 to $284,636,000 in 1960/61, while total gross loan fund expenditure on education by the States increased from $10,134,000 in 1949/50 to $83,234,000. It is clear that the community was feeling the effect of educating an increased schools population. Furthermore it is interesting to note the changing relation- ships between recurrent expenditure on education and total recurrent expenditure; and between capital (or loan fund) expenditure on education andtotal capital expenditure by the States. Whereas in 1949/50 recurrent State expenditure on education was 12.1% of total State recurrent expenditure, the proportion in 1960/61 had risen to 18.8%. This means that educational expenditure was increasing at a more rapid rate than expenditure on other State responsibilities and this is a measure of the importance of the education problem as seen by the States. 18. Even more impressive is the increase in the proportion of capital expenditure being devoted to education. This rose from 5.8% of total gross loan fund expenditure by the States in 1949/50 to 19.9% in 1960/61 and reflects the developing State commitments in educational buildings. The Universities 19. Table 6 shows clearly the changing pattern of educational demands. Between 1947 and 1954 the primary schools were stressed as were the secondary schools 1954 to 1961. For the past seven years the tertiary institutions 219 have felt the burden of rapidly increasing numbers. Total enrolments at Australian universities rose from 53,391 in 1960 to 91,160 in 1966, an increase of 71%. Annual increases in the new enrolments in bachelor degrees have been of the order of 8 to 10 per cent, except in 1964 when the percentage increase was 16.7. 20. In anticipation of the growth in numbers and realizing the necessity for co-ordinated university development the Commonwealth Government then set up the Australian Universities Commigsion in 1959. At this time there were nine universities and two university colleges. In 1966 the number had grown to fourteen universities and three university colleges. This reflects the efforts being made during these years to cope with increased numbers of applications for admission to universities. 21. The problem here has been the result of the increasing proportion of the 17-22 age group staying on for further study as well as the previously discussed increase in population. 22. Financially, a growing burden was imposed on State and Federal Governments. Government grants increased from $249,732,000 for the 1961-63 Triennium to $380,706,000 for the 1964-66 Triennium. 23. Great as increases in university enrolments have been, they have not kept pace with the numbers of students wishing to take up university studies. Until recently there had been a general understanding that all students meeting matriculation requirements had the right to enrol in an appropriate university course. Although entry restrictions related to manpower requirements were imposed in the war years 1939-45, quotas designed to restrict entry were imposed first in 1948 by the University of Melbourne for the medical course and in 1957 for the same course by the University of Western Australia. By 1966 most universities found it necessary to impose quotas in at least one course and many qualified students were being excluded. By 1962 the total number of qualified students excluded from Victoria's universities alone was 639. In 1966 this figure had grown to 1,934 from a total of 8,153 qualified applicants. Staffing the Universities 24. In 1963, 4,292 academic staff were employed full-time in Australian universities. This was twice the number in 1956 and seven times that of 1939. As in the schools, a problem was created by rising enrolments coupled with the depleted pool for staff recruitment resulting from the 1930-36 trough in the birth rate. 25. In 1964 the Martin Committee said:(7) "Staff numbers in Australian universities are two and a half times greater than 25 years ago. The number of professors has doubled in a decade and the number of readers, senior lecturers and lecturers is two and a half times greater than 10 yeara agO...ooccooo 220 In order to maintain the staff student ratio at the 1963 level, it is estimated that new staff required will number 1,420 during the years 1964-67, 2,100 during the years 1968-71 and 1,320 during the years 1972-75. Ignoring overseas recruitment, which is likely to diminish as university expansion gains impetus, this implies that universities should strive to attract about 7% of their first degree graduates of four years' standing between 1964-67, 6.5% between 1968-71 and 4% between 1972-75%." The report goes on to say that to attract such a high proportion as 7% would be difficult, but that after 1970 an increasing flow of graduates would ease the staffing problem. 26. In conclusion it is clear that Australia's education systems have suffered a period of extreme stress as a result of greatly increased enrolments arising from a combination of causes occurring during the post-war period particularly from the higher birth rates. This period of stress has to some extent passed from the primary and secondary sections to the university field. Notes (1) Australian Education Council. A Statement of Some Needs of Australian Education, Revised 1964. (2) Commonwealth Office of Education. Education News Vol. 10 No. 7. There is a full discussion of this question in this issue. (3) Australían Education Council. op. cit. (4) Commonwealth Office of Education, Education News Vol. 1, No. 2. (5) State Governments, Ministers' Reports. (6) Ibid. (7) Martin, L.H. (Chairman), Tertiary Education in Australia, Commonwealth Government Printer, Vol. I, pp. 90, 93, 1964. 221 Table 1 Numbers of Live Births in Australia 1932-1962 Source: Australian Education Council, A Statement of Some Needs of Australian Education 1964 Year Number Year Number Year Number Year 1932 .. 110,933 1940 .. 126,347 1948 .. 177,976 1956 1934 .. 109,475 1942 .. 136,708 1950 .. 190,591 1958 1936 .. 116,073 1944 .. 153,344 1952 .. 201,650 1960 1938 .. 120,415 1946 .. 176,379 1954 .. 202,256 1962 Table 2 Enrolments in Australian Government Schools Divided into Primary and Secondary 1948-62 (In Thousands) Sources Australian Education Council, A Statement of Some Needs of Australian Education - 1964 Year Primary Secondary Year Primary 1948 .. 731 .. 148 .. 1956. 1,093 … 1950 803 .. 170 .. 1958. 1,179 + 1952 .. 905 .. 194 .. 1960 .. 1,214 .. 1954 .. 1,000 .. 223 .. 1962. 1,247 e. Table 3 Australian Secondary Schools - Final Examination Number of Students Passing 1948-1964 Year Number Year Number Year Number 1948 .. 8083 ee 1954 . 10672 .. 1960 .. 20759 1950 .. 17715 ee 1956 .. 12628 .. 1962 .. 27472 1952 .. 8713 .. 1958 .. 16662 .. 1964 .. 37137 Table 4 Number ee 212,133 .. 222,504 .. 230,326 .. 237,081 Secondary 262 317 398 466 Teachers in Australian Government Schools 1952-1964 Sources Commonwealth Office of Education, Education News Year Primary Secondary Total 1952 .. 28300 .. 10200 .. 38500 1954 .. 30300 .. 11900 .. 42200 se .. 33600 .. 13500 .. 47100 195 .. 36300 .. 16000 .. 52300 1960 .. 38900 .. 19700 .. 58600 1962 .. 42000 .. 23700 .. 65700 1964 .. 44184 .. 27043 .. 71227 222 Table 5 Educational and Total State Expenditure Australias 1949/50 to 1960/61 State Total Gross Total States Total Gross) fear e — Recurrent 1 as —j Loan Fund |3 as 3 e e Expendit- |of2 | Ptos on | Expenditure|of 4 (Recurrent) | Ÿ*° Ed. by States (1) (2) (3) (4) $000 $000 $000 $000 1949-50 62,992 520,950 12.1 10,134 175,552 5.8 1953-54 128,690 934,978 13.8 27,088 368, 356 T.4 1957-58 201,810 1,224,400 16.5 49,450 357,812 13.8 1960-61 284,636 1,512,779 18.8 83,234 418,276 19.9 Sources Sources Sources Sources C'wealth C'wealth C'wealth C'wealth Grants Year Book Year Book Year Book Commission Table 6 Number of Persons aged 10-14, 15-19 and 20-24 Years Australia 1 1 1961 and as estimated for 1 and 1 Sources Martin Committee Report, Vol. I, p.25. + 1947 1954 4 increase] 1961 '% increase) 1968 — 6 1975 MO No. of | No. of or No. of 1954-1963 |No. of [inorease| No. of ceo P| Persons| Persons| decrease | Persons Persons (1961-68 | Persons 975 1947-54 5-9 | 603,983] 902,737] +49.5 |1,047,496| +16.0 1,215 016| +16.0 | 1,446,233] +19.0 10-14 | 534,683| 694,180| +29.8 |1,020,010| 447.0 1,134,244 +11.1 | 1,317,786| +16.2 15-19 | 586,666] 591,771] + 0.9 508,907 | 436.7 1,071,444 +32.5 | 1,225,623] +14.4 20-24 | 617,954] 600,166) = 2.9 697,455 +16.2 1,006,761) +44.3 | 1,173,521] +16.6 223 INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR THE SCIENTIFIC STUDY OF POPULATION SYDNEY CONFERENCE 21st - 25th August 1967 SESSION V(a) "STUDY OF FERTILITY IN ECAFE COUNTRIES" Moderator : C. Chandrasekaran Tuesdev, 22nd August, 1967 2.30 p.m. to 4.30 p.m. 224 225 FERTILITY IN KERALA By. ¥.C. Chidambaram, Junior Professional, Demographic Training & Research Centre, Chembur, Bombay-71, INDIA, I. KERALA AS COMPARED TO INDIA 1. Demographically Kerala stands out unique among the Indian States, This is the smallest State in India and has, as its characteristics, highest density of population, higher literacy rate, excess of females over males in the total population, lower level of mortality, higher mean age at marriage among females and higher proportion of workers in non-agricultural categories, when compared to the all-India pattern. Selected statistics for Kerala md India based on the 1961 Census and other official statistics are given in Table 1. About 60 per cent of the rural population of Kerala is living in villages inhabited by 10,000 or more persons, the corresponding all-India . proportion being as low as 3 per cent. The economy of the State is predo- minantly agricultural, the level of industrialisation is low and the per capita income was about 10 per cent less than that of India in 1955-56. Thus with respect to some of the demographic characteristics of its population, Kerala appears to be more akin to the developed societies of the West, whereas its economy is similar to that of a typical 'developing nation' of the East. "II, POPULATION GROWTH AND ITS COMPONENTS 2. According to the 1961 Census, the population of Kerala was 16.9 millions and the annual rate of growth is estimated to be 2.1 per cent during the last decade. The corresponding all-India growth rate was only 1.89 per cent. > 226 3. The census Actuary has estimated the expectation of life at birth in India? as 41 years during 1951-60, uhereas for Kerala the corresponding estimate is 45 years. As for migration, Kerala is an out-migrating area at present. According to Zachariah's estimate, if the State had not lost popu- lation through migration, the growth rate in 1951-61 would have been 2.4 per cent instead of the observed 2.1 per cent.? Thus on the one hand the lower level of mortality has been favourable for a higher growth rate in Kerala as compared to India and on the other this has been checked to some extent through out-migration from the State. The main interest in this paper is therefore to know whether the level of fertility in Kerala is different from that of India or not. III, AVAILABLE DATA ON FERTILITY 4, The 14th round of the National Sample Survey provides estimates of age-specific fertility rates for the States in India for 1959-60. But these estimates relate only to the rural population. However, we may use these as the estimates of the total population since, (a) there is no positive evidence of the existence of marked rural-urban differentials in fertility in India; (b) it is argued that even in a premier city like Greater Bombay the level of fertility can very well be the same as that of India at the beginning of the decade;? and (c) the rural population accounts for a large majority of the total population in the country as well as in the different States, Now if ve apply these age-specific fertility rates to the respective female age distribution provided by the 1961 Census, they give a crude birth rate of 37.0 births per 1000 population in Kerala and 38.7 in India. According to the estimates of the Registrar General, the crude birth rates for Kerala and India in 1951-60 were 38.9 and 41.7 respectively. Assuming that fertility pattern has not changed either in Kerala or in India during the decade, and that the Registrar General's estimates reflect the true level of birth rate, we will prorate the age-specific fertility rates to give the corresponding crude birth rates estimated by the Registrar General. These adjusted rates along with the 1 : Census of India, 1961 fe Tab. 1 Offi f the Re Vpn , , ce o eistrar General, 2 Zachariah, K.C., Migration and Population Growth in Kerala, /Tn: Kurup, R.S., and George, K.A., Population Growth in : lts Im ns, Burean of Economics and Statistics, Trivandrum (1965 3 Demographic Training & Research Centre, The Low Birth Rate of Greater Bom Newsletter, Issue No.20, 1-4, Bombay (1966). 4 Census of India, 1961, Life Tables 1951-60, op.cit. 227 “observed rates are given in Table 2. The rest of the paper assumes these rates to be prevailing in 1961. IV. LEVEL OF BIRTH RATE 5. The above figures imply that the crude birth rate in Kerala is less than that in India by about 3 points. The limitations of the birth rate as an index of fertility being well known, it is necessary to make the necessary adjustments for the differences, if any, in the sex, age and marital status composition of the populations under study. A, SEX 6. In contrast to the Indian situation, there are more females than males in Kerala. Hence the birth rate of Kerala standardised for sex with the all-India distribution as the standard, works out to 37.4 per 1000 population. B. AGE To The age distribution of the population of Kerala is not very different from that of India as in 1961. The difference, though not large, is more among males than among females. The birth rate standardised for sex and age with respect to the all-India distribution, is estimated to be 38:3 per 1000 population, This is sti lower than the all-India level as well as that observed for Kerala. Co MARITAL STATUS 8. Kerala differs very much from the all-India pattern with respect to the marital status distribution. Among the population aged 10 years and over, 39 per cent are single in Kerala whsreas in India this percentage is only 26 according to the 1961 Census. In all the age groups the proportion of currently married women is lower in Kerala than in India, the difference basing substantial in the early age groups and becomes smaller as age advances. Not only that Keralites start their married life at a later age, but a larger proportion of women remain single in the age group 45-49 (2.2 per cent in Kerala and 0.5 per cent in India). These differences in the marriage pattern will have its effect on the birth rate observed. 8a. Now if we atandardise for sex, age and marital status, the birth rate of Kerala comes to as high as 48.4 births per 1000 population. In other words, if Kerala is to have the same sex, age, marital status distribution as India, the observed age-specific fertility rates would have given a birth rate of 48.4, which may be compared with all-India birth rate of 41.7 per 1000 popu- lation: Therefore the level of marital fertility in Kerala appears to be about 16 per cent higher than that in India, 228 V. MARITAL FERTILITY RATES 9. The age-specific marital fertility rates of Kerala are compared with those of India in Table 2. In general, the nuuber of births in one year per 1000 currently married women is invariably higher for Kerala than that for India in all the age groups, except in thecase of the age group 40-44, However, the magnitude of the difference is not same in every age group and thay show a fluctuating pattern. (see last colum of Table 2 and Fig.1). The highest difference is in the age group 15-19, where the fertility rate in Kerala is about 36 per cent higher than that in India. This percentage difference falls down to 7 per cent in the next age group 20-24, increases to 24 per cent in 25-29, again comes down to 10 per cent in 30-34 and then goes up to 25 per cent in 35-39. A woman who survives to the age 45 in the currently married status will, on an average, give birth to 7.45 children under the Kerala pattern of fertility, whereas under the Indian pattern the average is reduced by about one child. This difference is quite substantial indeed, : VI. FACTORS AFFECTING FERTILITY IN KERALA (A) CONTRACEPTION 10. The 16th round of the National Sample Survey shows that about 45 per cent of the husbands in urban areas of Kerala have knowledge of at least one method of family planning and about 6 per cent have reported as having practised at least one method other than abstinence. The corresponding all- India percentages are 27 and 5 respectively,” Therefore it appears that con- traception, if it is of any significance, can only contribute to a reduction in the level of fertility in Kerala which implies that natural fertility should be still higher than what is observed. (B) BIOLOGICAL FACTORS 11. Adolescent sterility: In the age group 15-19, the marital fertility rate in Kerala is about 36 per cent higher than that in India, The mean age at marriage is about 19 years in Kerala and hence in the age group 15-19, the currently married women will be clustered around the age 19 and there will be relatively less women at the younger ages 15, 16 or even 17, In contrast, the average Indian woman gets married by the age 16, and therefore a large majority of the currently married women in the age group 15-19 will be distri- buted over the younger ages 15, 16 or 17. The contribution of these younger women to the fertility rates of the age group 15-19 will be very small, because of the incidence of 'adolescent sterility’ which is found to be very Ie National Sample Survey, Tables with Rates on Family Plaming: Sixteenth Round, Indian Statistical Institute, Calcutta (1963). 229 high at the younger ages and extends even upto age 19.5 If this be the case, these findings bring out another interesting fact that under Indian conditions, an increase of about 3 years in the mean age at marriage might result on a substmtial increase in the marital fertility rates of the younger age group. 12, Fecundity: Fertility in Kerala can be higher if women in Kerala have a higher fecundity - the physiological capacity to reproduce - than their Indian counterparts. Fecundity being not precisely measurable, the average waiting time from marriage (effective) to the first conception is comonly used as a good index, We have some data on the mean interval from marriage (effective) to first termination obtained from surveys conducted in ten urban localities of Kerala State. These figures are given in Table 3.- 12a. The mean interval from marriage (effective) to first termination varies from 23 to 40 months in these localities, the overall average being about 35 months. In the Mysore Population Study, the interval between marriage (cohabitation) and first birth is estimated to be about 27 months, which, it is stated, "corresponds approximately to the average intervals between marriage and first birth that have been observed in various parts of the world among population not extensively practising contraception". 7 The mean age at marriage observed in the Mysore study sample is about 14.5 years ond cohabitation takes place after an average interval of 9 months.” As a result, the observed interval includes a certain period of adolescent steri- lity and hence the real interval is shorter. But the average age at marriage being around 19 years in Kerala, the lengthening of the interval due to the presence of adolescent sterility will be very much less in these cases. These observations lead us to the conclusion that among the Kerala women, the rean interval from marriage (effective) to first birth is not smaller than the corresponding intervals noticed among the women in other parts of the country. Hence there is no reason to believe that women in Kerala have a higher fecundity, unless the incidence of foetal loss before the first birth is substantially higher in Kerala than in other parts, which is very doubtful, as is seen from the ensuing discussion. 6 Talwar, P.P., Adolescent Sterility in an Indian Population, Human Biology, 37(3), 256-261 (Sept. 1965). Tinited Nations, The Mysore o Study, Department of Economic & Social Affairs, p.132, New York (1961). 8 Ibid 230 13. length of post-partum amenorrhea period: This is a very important factor which can bring in substantial differences in fertility. The average period of infertility following a live birth is known to be longer in India than that in Western societies. The Khanna study has given an average of 11 months and other studies have given still higher averages.? But in the absence of any direct information on the length of this period among Kerala women, we will try to make indirect comparisons using data on birth intervals. The average interval between two terminations, excluding the interval from marriage to first termination, is about 27-28 months in Kerala, as estimated from the ten surveys referred to above. This is much smaller than the average interval observed in other parts of the country, which is found to vary between 52 to 36 months, 10 It is true that the Kerala figures are taken between terminations, but the average birth interval even after adjustment for foetal loss cannot be much higher then 27, since foetal losses recorded in these surveys accounted for only about 7 per cent of the pregnancies.ll This smaller interval in Kerala requires attention and according to Potter, when one deals with birth intervals averaging less than 28 months it becomes evident that mean length of post-partum amenorrhea must be less than 11 months.12 Also theoretical models have indicated that in non-contracepting populations, the most important length of birth intervals is the duration of post-partum infecundability rather than levels of pregnancy wastage or of fecundability. 13 The above observations, along with our earlier finding that the level of fecundity is not higher in Kerala than in India, indicate the possibility of a smaller average period of post-partum amenorrhea being responsible for the higher fertility of an average woman in Kerala as compared to an average Indian woman, However the hypothesis remains to be tested through actual field surveys. potter, R. G., et al, A Case Study of Birth Interval cs, Population Studies, 19(1), 81-96 (July To Also see: Tietze, C., The Effect of B t-fee on t te of Conception, International Population Conference 1961, Vol.II, 129-133, London (1963). 10 Chandrasekaran, C., Indian Fertility in a a Economic & Social Setting, Family Planning News, 2110), 228-236 (Oct.1962). Also see: Das Gupta, A., et al, Couple Fertility, National Sample Survey, Report No.7, The Dept. of Economic Affairs, India (1965), Potter, R.G., et al, op.cit, p.89. He discussion on foetal loss in para 14. potter, R.G., Birth Intervals: Struc and Population Studies, p.161 (Nov.1963). 1 Sheps, M.C., An Analysis Population Studies, 19(1 » Pe77 (July 1965). - 231 lé. Incidence of foetal wastage: Theoretically, a substential. reduction in the incidence of foetal deaths - stillbirths end abortions - among the total " conceptions con result in a higher fertility. The western experience shows that on the basis of reported pregnancy loss, 1CO pregnancies produce about 88 live tirths, 10 abortions and 2 stillbirths, while the total incidence of recognised, but not necessarily reported, spontaneous pregnancy wastage may exceed even 20 per 100 pregnancies, 24 The estimates obtained from the 10 surveys conducted in Kerala are given in Table 3, The etillbirth rate thus observed in Kerala is about 19 stillbirths per 1000 live and stillbirths and the abortion rate is 49 abortions per 1000 pregnancies. Those estimates compare well with those reported by other surveys in India.17 All the rates observed in these surveys are, no doubt, underestimated since even in the West not more than 75 per cent of the foetal losses are being recorded through similar surveys, There is no reason to think that Kerala is an exception to this. In that case the stillbirth and abortion rates in Kerala do not appear to be smaller than those observed in other Indian studies and hence incidence of foetal wastage cannot be a factor contributing to the higher fertility in Kerala. (¢) SOCIAL FACTORS 15. Effect of Matriarchal System: It is well known that a section of the people in Kerala - Kshatriyas, Nairs, Ezhavas and a few other depressed castes - had followed the matriarchal system of family organisation, Under this system, the woman was not economically dependent on her husband, and her children would be protected by the Torawad (matriarchal joint family) no matter how pany children she had, and hence this system could favour a higher fertility. But available data do not confirm this theory. According to the 1931 Census, in the erstwhile Travancore State (which forms a part of present Kerala), about 44 per cent of the population followed the matriarchal system, 10 Interest- ingly enough the Nairs who formed about 40 per cent of the matriarchal group had a lower fertility than the Christians and Muslims, as shown by the ferti- lity enquiry conducted along with 1931 and 1941 censuses.’ lorcover a shift lépottsr, R.G., Birth Intervals: Structure and Change, op.cit, pp.157-158. 15 For details see, Report of the Family Planninz Prosramo Evaluation and Planning Committee, Govt. of India, Part I, pp.65-66 (lircographed). 16 enaus of Indi a, 1931, Travancore-Part I Report, Superintendent of Govt. Press, Trivandrum (1932). UM ensus of India, 1941, Travancore-Part I Report, Superint:nient of Govt. Press, Trivandrum (1942), 232 from the matriarchal to the patriarchal line of family organisation was noticed by the end of the 19th century, and a series of legislations, after 1925, has resulted in the complete switch-over to patriarchal system all over the State. Therefore there is no reason to believe that the current level of fertility is in any way influenced by the prevalence of this system in the older days. In fact a study conducted by the Demographic Research Centre, Trivandrum has also Shown, that this system of family organisation was not conducive to high ferti- lity. 16. Religious Composition: Another major factor that requires our attention is the religious composition of the population of Kerala. Here again Kerala keeps its uniqueness, with a .igher proportion of Christians as compared to other Indian States. The 1961 Census shows that Hindus accounted for about 61 per cent of the population in Kerala, and 84 per cent in India. The pro- portion of Christians was as high as 21 per cent in Kerala, whereas among the other Indian States the highest proportion was only 6 per cent in Assam, the all-India figure being as low as 2 per cent. Muslims formed about 18 per cent of Kerala's population (which was not the highest among Indian States), as compared to 11 per cent in India. In a study on fertility differentials in Kerala, George arrives at the conclusions that, (i) most of the measures indi- cate highest fertility for the Muslims and (ii) compared to the Hindus, the Christians have a somewhat higher fertility even though the differentials are not pronounced.29 Table 4 gives the fertility indices observed among the three religious groups. 16a. Some hypothetical combinations of the possible averages for Hindus and non-Hindus, which will give an overall average of 7.45 children for all religions together, are given in Table 5. In selecting these sets of values it is assumed that the average cannot be less than 5.5 among Hindus and 7.0 among the non-Hindus. Since Christians and Muslims are almost equal in number in Kerala (about 20 per cent each) an average of 8.5 or more for non-Hindus implies that the average for Muslims should be still higher. But the average observed in the fertility surveys of 1931 and 1941 was about 7.0 for Muslims, and even after making allowances for possible under-reporting and other errors, the true value cannot be expected to exceed 8 children per woman of completed fertility. This rules out the acceptability of the alternatives I to IV given in Table 5. Again in view of the direction of the noticed religious differentials in ferti- lity, the alternative VI also seems to be an impossibility. Naturally the alternative V appears to be nearer to the real situation. 18surendranathan Nair, G., Family Om sation in Kerala thr s and its Effect on Fertility, /In: Kurup, R.S., and George, K.A., op.cit, 185-191/. 1 Ieorge, M.V., Differentinl Brissy in Horgias Submitted to the Demographic Training & Research Centre, Bombay (1958-59). 233 TABLE 1 - KERALA AND INDIA: COMPARISON OF SELECTED CHARACTERISTICS S1l.No. l. 2, 3e te 5e 6. Te 8. 9. 10. 11. 12, 13. Characteristics Area in sq. miles? Population by 1961 census (millions Density of population (per sq.mile Percentage of rural population living in villages inhabited by 10,000 or more persons in 10612 Sex ratio (females per 1000 male Y Percentage of literates in 1961” - Both sexes Number of scholars in Tesomise institutions per 1000 population - 1960-61: Percentage f women among all scholars - 1960-6 Percentage f women among all teachers 1960-6 Number of currently married women aged 15-44 years per 1000 populatio Urban population as percentage to total - 1961 Per capita income - 1955-56 (as. 7 Percentage of vaykers in non-agricultural category 19617 . Kerala 15,003 16.20 1,127 60 1,022 46.8 197 45 41 148 15 234.4 53.0 Source: ga/ Census of India, 1961, Reports on Kerala and India. India 1,228,402 439.23 558 941 24.0 117 28 19 .261.0 27.1 b/ Govt. of India, Central Statistical Organisation, Statistical Abstract of the Indian Union, 1963 & 1964, New Series No.12, Manager of Publications, Delhi (1965). Population figures used relate to 1961. £/ National Council of Applied Economic Research, Techno-Economic Survey of Kerala, New Delhi (1962). 4/ Vikrman Nair, N., Industrial Composition of Working Force in Kerala, Submitted to the Demographic Training & Research Centre, Bombay, 1964-65, (Mimeographed). 234 TABLE 2 - AGE-SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATES FOR KERALA AND INDIA - 1961 Births per 1000 females in the Births per 1000 currently Age group age group 1 married females in th£SÉroup® Observed rates) Adjusted rates ) Kerala India Col (6 100 Kerala Indial Kerala India | Col (7 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) 15-19 83 145 87 156 305 224 135 20-24 227 264 239 284 331 310 107 25-29 278 244 292 263 347 279 124 30-34 195 188 205 203 244 222 110 35-39 154 128 162 138 199 159 125 40-44 45 68 47 73 64 94 68 2/ Correspondirg to the adjusted rates in cols (4) & (5). Source:- The National Sample Survey, Fertility and Mortality Rates in Rural India, Report No.89, Indian Statistical Institute, Calcutta (1961). TABLE 5 - MEAN INTERVAL FROM MARRIAGE TO FIRST TERMINATION AND INCIDENCE OF FOETAL LOSS FROM TEN SURVEYS IN KERALA Number ¡of Mean Total Abortions Stillbirths Area women interval pregnancies per 1000 per 1000 (months) pregna- live and ncies stillbirths 1. Alleppey town 843 36 3894 57 20 2. Attinggal tom 421 30 2109 76 36 3. Cannanore town 467 40 1995 52 10 4. Ernakulam town 653 37 2729 34 25 5. Kottayam town 534 39 1693 45 23 6. Kozhikode town 644 36 2614 43 22 7. Palghat town 605 39 2965 30 7 8. Quilon town 655 32 2929 43 16 9. Trichur town 409 23 1530 15 15 10. Trivandrum city 1514 35 6919 65 19 All areas 6725 35 29377 49 19 2/ Number of women who have conceived at least once at the time of survey. 235 TABLE 4 - CERTAIN INDICES OF FERTILITY AMONG THE RELIGIOUS GROUPS IN KERALA Index Hindus Muslims Christians Children O-4 per 1000 still married women 15-39 (Travancore-Cochin, average for 1901, 1911, 1921, 1931 and 1941) 954 991 997 Total fertility rate (Travancore 1941) 5.47 5.92 5.56 Average number of children born . to woman of completed fertility (Travancore 1941) 6.4 7.0 7.0 Average number of children born b to woman of completed fertility (Cochin 1941) 6.2-6% Y 6.4 a/ for Nairs and Ezhavas, b/ Not available. Source: George, M.V., op.cit, pp.10-12. TABLE 5 - POSSIBLE VALUES OF THE AVERAGE NUMBER OF CHILDREN EVER-BORN TO WOMAN OF COMPLETED FERTILITY FOR HINDUS AND NON-HINDUS IN KERALA Alternative Hindus Non-Hindus I 5.5 - 10.4 II 6.0 9.6 III 6.5 8.9 IV 6.75 8.5 v | 7.0 8.1 vw 7.5 7.3 236 FIG.I. AGE-SPECIFIC MARITAL FERTILITY RATES - "KERALA AND INDIA, 1961. 350+ 7 \ —--— KERALA .- \ INDIA 300 250 - IOOO MARRIED WOMEN ny 8 G ? o o 1 BIRTHS PER O O 1 / Ur N O N O a O QU O A O 237 DERTILITY LEVEL AND TRENDS IN CEYLON by . Ce I'v >. Jayewardene Lecturer, University of Ceylon, and >. velvaratnan senior Research Officer, Department of National Planning. 1. Because of the ready availability of data, fertility is usually measured in terms of the Crude Zirth Tate. During the period 12900 - 1960, the crude birth rate in Ceylon hes shown a slight decrease (Table 1). It was 28.5 in 1900 and 36.6 in 1960. The decrease has been so slight that for all intents and purposes the crude birth rate may be considered to have been more or less constant during this period. It has also heen subject to violent fluctuations during this period. It has reached a low of 32.8 in 1907 and a high of 41,0 in 1926. In all decades except the thirties, there have been several years when the crude birth rate wos either 40.0 or more, A definite downward trend in the crude birth rate is discernible since 1960. ach succeeding year there has been a fall in the crude birth rate and it Was 32.7 ir 1965. The downward trend, however, appears to have begun in 1951 but during the decade 1951 - 1960, not only was the decline slow, it wes interrupted in 1955 and açain in 1959. 2. Lirths and birth rates are limited by the biological factors which enable only women and women of a certain are group to bear children, They are also limited by the prevalent social customs and mares which restricts this activity to an even smaller segment. “hile it is possible for a fecund woman to give birth to & child anytime between puberty and menopause, it is socially unacceptable for her to do so if ghe was unmarried or near the menopausal end of her reproductive period. The extent to which the physical possibility is abnegated by the social impropriety depends obviously on the relative strengths of the extant social customs and sex taboos. hatever the cultural situation may be, the size of the child Deurin; population bas un important bearing on the magnitude of the birth rate, “hen this segment is large the crude birth rate is higher than when it is small, other factors being equal (1). 3. The reproductive neriod of a woman in Ceylon is usally talten as the 15 - 44 years old neriol, Though there bave heen cases of women under 15 years =f mms and over 45 years of aze bearing children, such cases are rare. Lata collected at the various 238 censuses shows that while in 4901, the females in the age group 15 - 44 years old constituted 21.9) of the total population, this proportion declined to 20.9 in 1953 end 20.4 in 1563. The proportion of this population that was married, however, bas increased from 60.8% in 1901 to 64.9% in 1953. (Information for 1963 is not yet available). The actual child tearing population - those physically able and socially likely to do so = consequently constituted 13.37% of the total population in 1901 ani 13.65 — in 1953. 4, A second factor that has to be taken into consideration is the span of the reprouuctive period. Though normally tle reproductive period is considered to be the 30 year period between the ages 15 and 45, the eocial custom of marriage restricts this span. Consequently an important factor in fertility is the age at marriege whach determines the de facto reproductive peripd. TLe younger a woman is at marriage, the more children she is likely to bear assuming, of course, that planned parenthood plays no parts in her reproductive behaviour. The average age at marriage for females in Ceylon (Table 1) has increased since the turn of the century. It was 21.0 yeers in 1901 while in 1963 it was 23.2 years. The increase has occured mainly during the post war period. The 2 year increase in the average age at marriage means a 2 year decrease in the reproductive period. 5. In the calculation of the reproduciive span of a woman a factor that has to be taken into consideration is the chance of survival of the woman during this period. Data published by the Departuent of Census and jtatistics (2), show that while in 1920 - 22,0nly 60% of the women aged 15 years could survive till their 45th year, the proportion has increased to 71.8% in 1946 and £8.2% in 1953 (Table 2). Taking these factors into consideration we find that the revroductive span of a woman was 19.40 years in the period 1920 - 22 , 20.02 years in. 1946 and 20.96 years in 1953. Though the average age at marriage increased, which normally leads to a reduction in the average reproductive period, the changes in the health of the women, reflected in a decrease of the death rate, has led to an actual increase in the reproductive span. It must, however, be noted that the increase in the span is due to an addition at the terminal end of the reproductive period. 6. Age Specific Fertility lates are available only for the period 1952 - 1963 (Table 3). These rates show that upto 1960, the Lighest fertility rate was observed in respect of the women in the age group 25 and under 30 years while the age group 30 years and under 35 had the second highest rate. Since 1961, however, the position has been reversed. During the period under consideration, the rates for the age group 25 years and under 30 has been steadily declining while the rates for the age group 30 years and under 35 years has been increasing with fluctuations. The rates for the age group 20 and under 25 years have shown the 239 same trend as the rates for the age group 25 and under 30 years while the rates for the age group 35 and under 40 years have shown the same trend as the rates for the age group 30 and under 35 years. In general there has been-a fall in the age specific fertility of the younger age groups and a rise in the age = specific fertility of the older age groups. 7. The changes in the age specific fertility, particularly the fall in the younger age groups, are perhaps due to an increase in the age at marriage. “orking with this data, Raja Indra (3) found that the fertility ratio - the age specific birth rate of the under 30's expressed as a ratio of the age specific birth rate of the over 30's - showed a marked decline in the decennium 1952 =~ 1960 which,he contends,provides strong evidence for the declining fertility of the younger age groups due to an increase in the age at marriagem. The declining fertility of the younger age groups, however, is only one component of the decline in the fertility ratiom. Also contributing to the decline in the fertility ratio is the increase in the fertility of the older age groups due perhaps, to improved health and vigour (4). 8. Age specific fertility rates usually point, by their variations, to the factors that are responsible for their change. Decrease in the rates of the older age groups indicates an increased use of contraceptives. hen the desired number of children have arrived, births are prevented by the use of contraceptives. Decreases in the younger age groups indicate alterations in marital patterns such as the postponement of marriage. The certainty with which these interpretations could be' made, however, depends on the length of the series of tim statistics. An increase in the use of contraceptives in the younger age groups manifests itself as a reducgtion in the age specific fertility of the older age groups only after a period of time. The available data on age specific fertility in Ceylon do not justify a conclusion of an increase in the use of contraceptives. The decrease in the fertility of the lower age groups reflects the increase in the age at marriage mi vhile the increase in the older age groups could be attributable to the extension of the average reproductive span of women. 9. As far as the level and trend of fertility in Ceylon is concerned, the picture is: (a) a reduction in the relative size of the child bearing population to the total population; | (b) an increase in the proportion of ‘the child bearing population who get married and bear children; (c) an increase in the average age at marriage leading to a reduction in the initial end of the reproductive span; and (4) an increase in the survival rate of women leading to an increase in the reproductive span at its terminal end. The first two factors acting in conjunction with each other have maintained the actual child bearing population a more or 240 less constant proportion of the total ponulation, The latter two factors together have resulted in an ectual increase in the average reproductive span of women in Ceylon, a reduction in the fertility of the younger age groups and an increese in the fertility of the older age groups. 10. This, however, is not the complete picture. Data collected at the Census of 1946 indicates that average size of completed family has been decreasing for each 5 year age cohort. Cf those completing fertility in 1925, 66.5, had borne more than 5 chilcre: while the corresponding proportion for those completing fertilit, in 1945 was 61.5., (Comparable data was not collected at subsecuent censuses)(5). At the end of the first quarter of this century the number of children ever born per voman was 6, at the end of the second quarter it wes 5. The females ever born per woman were 2,95 and 2.46 respectively, Lecause of chances in the survival rate, the females ever born per woman surviving to the reproductive period was the same - 1.77 - at the end of horth tie first and the second quarter, Because of chances in the merriace rate, every reproducing woman was being replaced by 1.15 reproducing women at the end of the second guarter while the comparative figure at the end of the first quarter of this century was 1.02 (Table 4). References. (1) United Nations: Recent Trends in Jertility in Industrialisec Countries. United Nations. New York (1958) ) statistical Abséracts of Ceylon. 1960. Table 25. ) EL. Zeaja Indra. Lecent l'ertility Trends in Ceylon. International Population Conference. Cttawa. 1963. Liege (1964) (4) E. Raja Indra. ertility Trends in Ceylon. Tapers. Vol 1. U. N. Torld Population Conference. 1954, (5) Census 6f Ceylon., 1946. (2 (3 241 Table 1. Crude Birth Rates and Average Age at Larriacçe in Ceylon 1900 - 1965. Tear Crude Average Year Crude Average Dirth Age at Birth Age at Rate liarriage - Nate larriace 1900 38.5 21.0 1933 38.6 21.0 1901 37.5 20.9 1934 37.2 20.2 1902 38.5 20.9 1935 34.4 21.4 1903 40.0 20.1 1936 34.1 21.4 1904 38.5 20.3 1937 — 37.8 18.9 1905 38.7 20.7 1938 35.9 21.5 1906 35.7 20.2 1939 26.0 22.2 1907 32.8 20.3 1940 35.8 21.8 1908 40.1 20.7 1941 36.7 21.7 1909 36.7 20.5 1942 36.7 21.3 1910 39.0 21.1 1943 40.6 22.3 1911 37.9 20.7 1944 37.1 21.4 1912 33.3 20.6 1945 36.7 20.1 1913 . 38.6 20.6 1946 38.4 22.4 1914 38.1 20.7 1947 39.4 22.2 1915 37.0 19.0 1948 40.6 22.3 1916 39.0 20.0 1949 39.9 22.2 1917 40.1 20.6 1950 40.4 22.1 1918 39.2 20.5 1951 40.5 22,3 1919 34.2 20.8 1952 39.5 22.2 1920 36.5 20.8 1953 39.4 22.5 192 40.8 20.9 - 1954 36.2 22.6 1922 39.4 20.9 1955 37.9 22.9 1923 39.1 20.9 . 1956 36.4 22.8 1924 37.2 21.0 1957 36.5 22.7 1925 29,2 21.3 1958 35.8 23.1 1926 41.0 22. 1959 37.0 22.7 1927 39.5. 20.9 1960 36.6 23,1 1928 40.0 21.0 1961 35.8 23.1 1929 36.5 21.3 1962 35.5 23.1 1930 29.0 21.1 1963 34.1 23.2 1931 37.4 20.9 1964 32.7 ....(a) 1932 37.0 19.0 1965 32.7 (a) (a) not available. vource. Administration Peports of the Registrar Gemeral om Vital statistics. 242 Table 2. Number of Survivors at the Different Ages of Every 100 Females aged 15 Years. AGE Y E A R 1920-22 1948 1953 15 Years 100.0 100.0 100.0 20 Years 96.1 96.2 97.7 25 Years 88.9 91.3 95.9 30 Years 21.6 86.1 94.0 35 Years 73.9 81.2 92.2 40 Years 66.7 76.4 90.3 45 Tears 60.0 71.6 88.2 Source. Statistical Abstracts 6f Ceylon. 1960. Table 25. 243 Table 3. Age Specific Fertility Rates, 1952 - 1963. Year 15 and 20 and 25 and 30 and 35 and 40 and Tertility under under under under under under Ratio (a) 20 yrs 25 yrs 30 yrs 35 yrs 40 yrs 45 yrs 1952 64.6 253.3 297.8 231.1 141.3 37.3 151.3 1953 59.8 249.1 298.5 230.5 142.7 35.6 149.0 1954 58.1 227.2. 272.1 211.5 131.4 33.6 148.5 1955 63.8 231.3 282.3 224.8 103.0 38.2 1442 1956 70.4 230.5 273.4 233.4 142.9 40.7 148.5 1957 69.3 226.6 269.7 239.8 147.6 41.5 137.5 1958 67.5 220.1 261.6 241.3 144.4 41.7 134.1 1959 68.5 225.8 271.2 251.6 153.5 42.6 131.7 1960 67.5 227.3 261.8 257.5 154.7 43.9 127.6 1961 66.3 220.6 249.9 250.2 152.7 42,4 125.8 1962 62.1 215.7 244.3 255.9 154.9 47.4 ..... 1963 59.0 207.0 233.0 245.2 153.4 46.2 e.... (a) Fertility Ratio is the agt specific fertility of the under 30's expressed as a percentage of the ace specific fertility of the over 30's.” Source. Age Specific Fertility Rates: Administration Reports of Registrar General on Vital Statistics. Fertility Ratio: R. Raja Indra. Recent Fertility Trends in Ceylon. International Population Conference. Ottawe 1963. Liege. (1964) pp 445 - 454, 244 Table 4, The Renlacement of Reproducing Women. tre end of the lst Jr 2nd cr of tais Century 1. Children ever born per woman 6 5 2. Proportion females of children born 49.1 49,2 3. Females ever born per woman 2.95 2.46 4, Proportion females born surviving to reproductive period 60 eo 5. Females ever born per woman surviving to reproductive period 1.77 1.77 6. Proportion 6f females in reproductive age croup married 58 65 7. Jemales ever born per woman enterring the business of reproduction 1.02 1,15 Source. O. E. R. Abhayaratne and C. E. S. Jayewardene, fertility in Ceylon. Colombo Apothecaries Co. Ltd. Colombo (1967 In Press. 45 FERTILITY AMONG THE NATIONALITY GROUPS OF ASIA ADJACENT TO THE ECAFE REGION! D, Peter Mazur, Ph.D. Professor of Sociology and Demography Western Washington State College A, Introduction 1, Demographic topics pertaining to the ECAFE region have received very little attention by the profession to date, Only a handful of the papers dis- cussed at the latest World Population Conference in Belgrade had any bearing at all on this subject, Among those, a heavy preponderance of topics related to Family Planning was unquestionably somewhat conspicuous, 2, Many demographers outside the ECAFE region who have observed the evolution of their discipline in Asia and the Far East, would probably agree that the preoccupation with family planning is a natural outgrowth of the concern with overpopulation in that part of the world and its counteraction as a matter of urgency. This is understandable when we remind ourselves that practically all of the non-industrialized countries of the ECAFE region show uniformly high levels of fertility, Close to 300 million Moslems in this part of the world probably have a higher natality rate than that of their Christian, Buddhist and even their Hindu neighbors, 2 ——]]—]]] The author is indebted to Jon Wells for his assistance in the statis- tical analysis of the data, Acknowledgment also is made to Helga Mazur for her editorial work, This paper represents an extension of the study in fer- tility of Soviet women completed at the International Population and Urban Research, University of California, Berkeley, during the author's leave of absence from Western Washington State College, 246 3. Countries where meaningful statistics can be found are usually those with a certain institutional structure we have come to associate with industrialization, an elevated standard of living and low birth rates, Since family planning is considered the road to these improved conditions that bring about a higher standard of living, coupled with a reduction in the birth rate, the family planning program appears to create a milieau favorable not only to the flourishing of economic progress, but to fact gathering and scientific research as well, 4, In this way, the question as to whether the developing countries should give priority to improving the quality of their population statistics or to reducing their birth rate, is resolved in favor of the latter, 5. The research-oriented demographer recognizes the importance of family planning programs as a suitable subject for research about conditions affecting fertility changes, In practice, however, there are difficulties, a, In the first place, family planning programs cannot be instituted everywhere in the ECAFE region and there is very little that demographers can contribute to removing obstacles that are due to circumstances and there- fore clearly outside of their professional competency. b. Second, it is not feasable to study changes in fertility over a period of time where no data describing past trends are available, This is not to preclude the use of cross-sectional data, provided that inferences based on the period-type measures include statements as to their possible limitations, €. Third, as most social scientists would agree, a certain degree of modernization is indispensable for a widespread adoption of family limitation in Asis, This problem is closely related to the objective of the present study. B. Objective 6. Assuming that the process of modernization is responsible in part or in whole for an initial variation in fertility, we can then proceed to ascer- tain which specific variables play the most important role. in this process and how they can be identified, Rirk, Dudley, Factors Affecting Moslem Natality, Family Planning and Population Programs, University of Chicago Press, Chicago (1966), p. 566. 3 Freedman, Ronald, The Transition from High to Low Fertility: Challenge to Demogra phere, Population Index, 31, 417-30 (1965). - 247 7. The purpose of this work is to obtain the statistical framework for a general model in fertility, applicable to the countries of Asia and the Far East, To this end a relatively miniature population of 24 million% -- equal to about 1,4 per cent of the neighboring ECAFE region -- was selected from the 1959 USSR Census of Population, comprising 21 nationalities of the Soviet Federation, This segment of the Soviet population corresponds roughly to the geographic area that includes the Caucasus, Central Asia and Siberia, all of which have common borders with the nations of the ECAFE region, 8, The 21 nationalities selected for this study can be regarded as a population prototype for the societies within the ECAFE region because of their marked cultural similarity with them, All are subject to the same risks of various social and demographic events the effects of which are re- flected in the findings and could therefore apply outside of their strictly geographic limits, These groups have remained economically underdeveloped, linguistically isolated and culturally ethnocentric, Like the nationals of Pakistan, India, Malaysia or Viet-Nam, for example, the peoples of Central Asia, the Caucasus and Siberia have their patriots, cultivate their tradi - tions and continue to aspire toward greater political autonomy, Their reli- gion is traditionally Buddhist or Moslem, Like other Islamic or Buddhist societies of Asia they adhere to agriculture as a way of life which is usually reflected in their kinship system of joint families, their emphasis on mar- riage and procreation as well as in similar social institutions character- istic for these populations, C. Method of analysis and sources of data 9. The general model includes measures of five variables: the child- woman ratio -- a measure of fertility -- as the dependent variable X,; the proportion of women married, X,, formal schooling (or literacy) X,, male- female literacy differential X,, and sex-ratio X. , as the independent varia- bles, From the analyst's point of view all of these variables can be either related to each other or considered in isolation, They can be stated as functions in the form of the multiple regression equations, It should be possible to add, reduce, or substitute them in the model in such a way that their predictive efficiency and relevance to the dependent variable can be maximized, To be precise, this number includes 8 major nationalities of the Asian portion of the Soviet Union: Uzbek (6,015,416), Kazakh (3,621,610), Azerbaydzhan (2,939,728), Armenian (2,786,912), Georgian (2,691,950), Tadzhik (1,396,939), Turkmen (1,001,585), Kirgiz (986,659), and 13 smaller ethnic groups (2,138,121) ranging in population size from 261,311 Chechens to 35,249 Balkars who at the time of the 1959 census resided within the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic, Among these 13 less numerous nationalities in the USSR an additional 527,699 persons lived outside the RSFS Republic, It was not possible to include this residual category in the analysis because of the incomplete classification of tabulated data in the census volumes, However, it is known that this category would contain a significantly larger ercentage of urban population than the aggregate of 2,138,121 nationals with- In the RÉFS Republic: © Seres TT - 248 10. Admitedly, our knowledge about social and economic interrelations affecting fertility in the developing countries of the ECAFE region is at present sketchy and incomplete, In other parts of the world where reliable and informative statistics are readily available, some of the interrelations can become obscured by the complexity of factors, the changes that these factors effect in social institutions, and the consequences of these changes in their effect on birth rates, Agricultural societies are generally less complex and therefore easier to study, provided that a sufficient quantity of information relevant to the problem can be obtained, 11. The 1959 USSR Census of Population ° contains such information on the 21 nationalities under study, The advantage of using a single source of primary informationis that it eliminates the possibility of distortions in the data whether these be due to the lack of uniformity in definitions or in enumeration procedures, On the basis of what we know about the field proce- dures of the Soviet census one would have to judge the overall quality of the coverage as very high, This is not to imply, of course, that the amount of information about social, economic and demographic characteristics of the population so far published by the Soviet government is sufficiently detailed to allow for a more exhaustive study of fertility in the USSR, Nevertheless, it may suffice to say that on the basis of what we have learned from the censuses of Asian countries, we probably know more about the social and demo- graphic composition of the nationalities of the Caucasus, Central Asia and “Siberia than any other part of Asia and the Far East, - D. Definitions 12, The concept of nationality is synonymous with that of "ethnic groug' It implies a certain degree of cultural autonomy in terms of rights and privi- leges, such as the right to preserve an indigenous tradition, language, cus=- toms, and often includes self-government, 13, Fertility is defined in the operational sense as the number of children below 10 years of age per one woman in the 20-49 age group. It was not possible to use the more conventional 0-4 age group, since the census classification of persons below age 20 is based on the 10-year rather than > Tsentralnoye Statisticheskoye Upravleniye pri Sovete Ministrov SSSR, Itogi Vsesoyuznoy Perepisi Naseleniya 1959 Goda, SSSR, Svodniy Tom (Results of the All-Union Census of Population of 1959, USSR, Summary Volume), Goss- tatizdat, Moskva (1962), pp. 211-25, 232-39, Also, RSFSR Volume (1963), pp. 338-409, 414-25, _podyachikh, P,, The Population of of the Soviet Union, Voprosy ekono- miki, Translated version published in Problems of Economics, 2, 20-24 (September, 1959). After the Second World War four ethnic groups included in the presert study (Chechen, Ingush, Kalmyk, and Balkar) had been deprived of their natior ality status and their autonomous republics abolished, Following Stalin's death they were rehabilitated for their alleged collaboration with the Nazis and their autonomous political subdivisions were restored, 249 the 5-year age interval, 14, Proportion of women married is expressed as a simple proportion of women in the 20-49 age group who were married in 1959, 15. Formal schooling refers to the proportion of women age 16 and over who completed less than the eighth grade, including those who never attended school, 16, Male-female literacy differential is a composite index defined as the ratio relating the . proportion of men who completed less than the eighth grade to the proportion among women with less than the eighth grade of school, where both sexes refer to persons 16 years of age and over. 17, The last of the independent variables, sex-ratio, is measured as the number of men aged 25-54 per woman in the 20-49 age group. E, Results of the study 18, The relevance of the independent variables to fertility is readily understood and needs no further elaboration, except perhaps the inclusion of the male-female fertility differential, 19, A few investigators have advanced the idea that an apparent lack of communication between husband and wife might be counted among the impor- tant factors contributing to high fertility,® It seems plausible, especially in those societies dominated by the Islamic faith, that at least a portion of the total variation could be explained with our knowledge of the relative ‘imbalance in the level of education attainment between husband and wife, which is reflected in the subordinate role of the woman in matters of sex and procreation, 20, Since the data are for individuals rather than married couples, merely a crude ratio consisting of the proportion of men with less than the eighth grade of schooling completed in the numerator, and the proportion of women with comparable schooling in the denominator of the ratio, was worked out to indicate the literacy gap between the sexes, The more this ratio deviates from unity, the greater is the educational gap separating men from women, thus leading to the assumption of a low degree of communication among married couples, The significance of the male-female literacy differential index becomes apparent in the context of traditional religion as summarized in Table 1, 21, It should be noted that the attainment of literacy by Moslem women in the degree equal to or approaching that of the men is not regarded as essential to the role ascribed to women in the Moslem societies, The importance of marriage and motherhood as a status usually ranks much higher than the importance of education for women, This particular culture trait is well reflected in the diagonal concentration of frequencies in Table 1, As most Moslem women accept the fact that it is in their best interest to Stycos, J. Mayone and Reuben Hill, The Prospects of Birth Control in Puerto Rico, Annals of the American Academy of of Political and Social Science, 285, 140-42 (1953). Also mentioned in Kingsley Davis, Institutional Patterns Favoring High Fertility in Underdeveloped Areas, Eugenic Quarterly, 2, 33-39 (1955). 250 marry, bear sons, and keep their husbands, there is no room for disagreement with their husbands as to family size.9 The topic of family limitation there- fore, simply does not appear in the flow of communication between the two sexes. TABLE 1 MALE-FEMALE LITERACY DIFFERENTIAL AMONG MOSLEMS AS COMPARED TO NON-MOSLEMS Level of male-female literacy differential“ Traditional religion Low - High Moslem 0 14 Non-Moslem 7 0 2 The distinction between low and high differential is based upon the rank order, The first 14 successively ordered ranks of nationalities with the range of variates from 0.814 through 0,933 are defined as those with the attribute of high differential, The range on the same array from 0.939 through 1.009 classifies the remaining 7 nationalities as low, so that there are 7 observations corresponding to 7 Non-Moslem groups below the cutting point and 14 observations corresponding to the sam: number of Moslem groups above that point, See Table 3 for a more detailed descrption, 22, Interrelations among the four independent variables can be observed by inspection of Table 3, For example, in the Moslem groups the proportion of married women tends to be large, with formal schooling ranking very low, For Buddhist and the Eastern Orthodox ethic groups the opposite situation holds true, 23. A somewhat more rigorous presentation of the interrelations pertaining to theses nationalities is provided in the content of the zero- order correlation matrix in Table 2, Obviously, some undetermined amount of interaction among the independent variables themselves including all other unknown factors tend to obscure the net effect these variables produce on fertility, To a considerable degree the results obtained from the multiple regression analysis clarify the nature of this interaction, © 24, The last column in Table 2 shows the Beta weights commonly known as the slopes of the regression lines relating the child-woman ratio with each of the independent variables, The magnitude of each Beta may be inter- preted as the relative strength of the variable it represents to explain the overall variation in the child-woman ratio when the influence of other kirk, Dudley, Factors Affecting Moslem Natality, in Family Planning and Population Programs, University of Chicago Press, Chicago (1966), pp. 561-79,Also, Fagley, Richard M., Doctrines and Attitudes of Major Reli- gions in Regard to Fertility, in Proceedings of the World Population Con= ference, 1965, United Nations, New York (1967). 251 independent variables is eliminated, except for any possible intervening factors that have not been explicitely stated in the problem, TABLE 2 ZERO-ORDER CORRELATION MATRIX BASED ON DATA FOR TWENTY-ONE NATIONALITIES IN THE ASIAN PART OF THZ USSR Formal Male-female ‘ Name hooline literacy Sex-ratio Child-woman | Beta of se 3 ©? differential 5 > ratio, weight variable 3 X, 5 x, ghts Proportion of women married, X, 0.279 - 0.370 0.664 0.697 0.429 Formal schooling, xa - 0.600 0.070 0.754 0.557 Male-female literacy dif- ferential, xX, 0,222 - 0.586 - 0.116 Sex-ratio, xo 0.403 0.104 25, In estimating the values of the dependent variable X,, it is more convenient to convert the standard scores of the Beta coefficiénts (weights) into the raw data scores, The following regression equation expresses the desired function: “ x, = = 0.596 + 1,422 X, 3 4 5 where X, refers to the estimated value of the child-voman ratio, and - 0,596 is the intercept constant, 26, The close correspondance between the observed and the estimated child-woman ratios is rather striking, As shown in Table 4, the discrep- ancies between the two arrays range from as low as 0,024 for Armenians to 0.340 for Avarians, with the average deviation of about 0,109 of the ratio, Given the value of the multiple correlation 0,910, the coefficient of non-determination, 1 - RY 2345 = 1 - 0.829, implies that about 17 per cent of the total variation ih 832i 14ey, as measured by the child-woman ratio, has been left unaccounted for by the variables involved in the problem, + 1,971 X, - 0,812 X, + 0,328 X 252 F. Conclusions 27, Conclusions relevant to the population of Asia and the Far East, insofar as their social and economic institutions resemble those of the twenty-one nationalities adjacent to the ECAFE region, may be summarized as follovs: , a, The inverse relationship between literacy, i, e.,, formal school- ing, and fertility has frequently been reported in the studies of both the underdeveloped and the industrialized countries, 19 In this respect the results of the present investigation once again substantiate and confirm the findings of other researchers, Formal schooling remains the most important component of modernization and it accounts for 42 per cent of the total variation in fertility, Most of the experts in the field of population research would readily agree, however, that investment increases for educa- tion cannot guarantee as immediate results as do the campaigns aimed at family limitation, Others may argue that equality of opportunity in educa- tion for the peoples of Asia, aside from the economic advantages, is more likely to result in a well balanced and relatively permanent demographic transition to low birth rates than the most elaborate birth control programs, The relative efficiency of one approach over the other can only be assessed accurately through controlled experimentation, b. Looking at the influence of marriage on fertility, other things being more or less equal, the proportion of married women in the 20-49 age group accounts for about 30 per cent of the total variation in the child. woman ratios, This particular variable should not be minimized in the cross- cultural and comparative studies based on the knowledge of crude birth rates only, For example, it can be shown that two significantly different birth rates are in fact equal when the proportion of married women, that is to say those normally exposed to the risk of childbearing, is taken into account, Especially in cross-cultural and ecological studies, failure to consider the differential marriage patterns may lead to distorted results and mis- interpretations, One of the chief reasons for the Islamic nationalities to have higher child-woman ratios than those of the other groups is that Moslems place a greater premium on marriage than their neighboring Buddhist or Eastern Orthodox ethnic groups, Cc. The topic of communication as a factor influencing fertility is a somewhat novel approach to this type of study and can also be expected to occupy a prominent place in future research devoted to the effectiveness of family planning. Its underlying variable, the male-female literacy dif- ferential will probably need further refinement as a measure of husband- wife communication, As defined in the present study, this variable accounts for about 7 percent of the total variation in fertility, 1, From the standpoint of theory and method, the problem of see, for example, Dandekar, Kumudini, Effect of Education on Ferti- lity; also, Dinkel, Robert M., Education and Fertility in the United States, in Proceedings of the World Population Conference, 1965, United Nations, New York (1967), 253 linking the concept of communication to that of an operationally defined statistic needs to receive greater attention in the future. ii, It should be pointed out that the literacy differential bears the one-to-one correspondance with traditional religion, We have observed that the high differential in literacy between the sexes is charac- teristic of the Moslem nationalities whereas all of the Non-Moslem groups rank low on the scale of this index, de Finally, the contribution of the sex-ratio to the explained variation in fertility (4 per cent), one may judge rather small, The reason lies in the nature of the regression model, After the proportion of married women explained all it could in the total variation of fertility, there was indeed very little left for the sex-ratio to increase the amount of explained variation, simply because these two independent variables were highly cor- related, 28, It is difficult at this time to speculate about the possible factors that could explain the presence of the residuals, In comparison with other studies of the same nature the discrepancies between the expected and the observed values of the dependent variable appear to be very small, Without trying to extend the above discussed variables beyond the limits of the data, it seems inevitable that any reasons for a more complete agreement between the observed and the estimated ratios will have to be found in the environment, 29, With additional sources of data, other variables could readily be introduced, One possible area for future investigation would be the dif- ferential effect of public health and sanitation programs on infant mortality. It is possible, however, that some of the elements of early-age mortality have already been taken into account by any or all of the variables included here, as they are known to conceal an undetermined quality of information not explicitly spelled out in the data on which this study is based, 254 SOT IL DMT LE SY JEW UA NSA] PUR TACRZET tCZ=11Z7060 “(7961 *3ITPZIITICSOH IMONSON) QUNTOA ÁrruwAS “ussa “6S6T JO LOTIETNdOZ JO SASLS) UOTUA-1IV 243 30 SIINSOY WOIF pauTv2GO vIvp UO PASEO :5IUNOS *TJooyss 30 Spri3 UIS 347 UBYI SSOT UITA XIA0 PUB HT pate uswom Jo uojazodoxd 547 03 SIBIAy— —_ e CoT*O S70%0 S60°0 660°0 ** * * * * * * * UOIIVIABQ PATPUEIS 92L*0 L05*O Sez*o £79%0 * * e « e s e « e e e ura pogySronun 1e te 0 000 000004000400000004040000404000040 00 04040004040440400404004004000400400000404040444040444040040000004040440404004004000004000 706* 696° LoL: z16° YI ws Tu PpPRa UEeTANL LL” 076* zee” 299" L xopoy7xO UX93SE7 IMIPA TIX9q1S L99* 6£6° 765* 9is* 9 us TupprRa 3váang COCO OCI IOI OOOO ICO 270002000 0A2020024 A A/A 2/00 0/2 4A AMNNAAMNQK hDSAADA AEUQAR ADA ALA UAZA APURAR A DD DU PQ LALA DAAZ ADA ZAASdS so* 789" 778" L9s* 61 wes] ujezen ESL* 6LS* SLe* 0ss* SI wars] 2 ISI] BISY 06L° s68° Lg’ ses” LI ucISI vaz n LOL" 706* 298" S6L* 91 wes] uewyang — 1823490 6SL* cos" eL" es” SI west HITA 220/2042 42020 2/02200040/4020A2 2222/24/74 1/0/2022 227AUUU/AUN PU 2 AU 0/0/44 //22AU72Ax A /22AA42/0 7/2 tdt N/A 0 0/0 /0/d/1 LEL* 265” 66L* ces* 12 wes UDYODUI (974 168° [477 796* 0z wes ysnfuz eL" 713" ser” gg’ et weysI ue TuiySz oq 9" see" ToL” 916° 1 west ueyzpAeqiszy LL9® zes* 279* ese® 11 UBISI IExTET uorSaz eo, * 996° so * 2z6* OI us TYyPPNE AAUTEY 769" €c6* TOL* sos” 6 wes] ue FpIeGe) 69° 68° 1477 38” 8 WETSI y Any Eco" 0gs* 0z9* cos* S wes] uydieq — SASTONUI 759” se" 689° 768" 7 WTISI uefIvay so LLO" TIL" sg9* € UeyxoSox9 uejuouxy UpIud z99° 600°1 Ss" 199° z XOpoy2X0 UX93SUT uT239SSO ere” 186° 9* TEO” T XOpoy3X0 UXOISTT | UVTÉ1099 E Ey ASTASITI) 19pIO Ty Hue O IrTAL WOTIEIOT =Buyrooyds Aq £a FTeuoTION PE remzen TSAJT [euor3IpelL 2 Uder90aj - = y [IX91 6S6T :OIIVU-XIS ANY “IVIINIUS-IiIO AIVUILIT “CS1UNVNA NINOM JO NOIIVOJONZ “DNITOONIS TVAUOI “NCIDITIY “NOILVIOT JIHAVUDOZI AJ USSA THI NI SHILITVNOILVN NYISV 12 JO SOIISIVILOVUVHO 2INCVESONIO ANV IVIJOS € TAL 255 TABLE 4 OBSERVED AND ESTIMATED CHILD-WOMAN RATIOS OF 21 ASIAN NATIONALITIES IN THE USSR: 1959, AND CCMPARABLE RATIOS BASED ON AVAILABLE DATA FOR THE ECAFE REGION, MONGOLIA, AND AUSTRALIA: 1957 - 1505 Rationality and Child-woman ratio, ni Chilé- geographic — i ECAFZ Region woman location Observed Estimated ratio— Caucasus: South Asia: — Georgian . 905 1.044 “Nepal (1961) 1,382 Ossetin . 968 .890 India (1961) 1,576 Armenian 1,240 1,215 Ceylon (1953) 1,587 Avarian 1,334 1,674 Pakistan (1961) 2,072 Dargin 1,427 1.560 South-Zast Asla: Kumyk 1,504 1,714 2e ee Kabardian 1,537 1.458 VietNam — (1960) 1,243 Kalmyk 1,646 1, 704 Burma (1960) 1,527 Balkar 1,698 1.563 Indonesia (1961) 1,618 Azerbaydzhan 1,711 1,646 Laos (1960) 1,624 Lezghinian 1,722 1,786 Cambodia (1952 1,653 Ingush 2,042 1,925 Thailand (1960) 1,698 Chechen 2,204 1,995 Philippines (1965) . 846 Central Asta: nolayne 41821) e —Tadzhik — 1.782 1,848 Singapore (1957) 1.945 Turkmen 1.809 1,724 Far East: Uzbek 1,878 1,819 “Japan (1960) .227 Kirgiz 1,885 1,856 Mongolia (1956) 1,139 Kazakh 1.896 1.814 South Korea (1965) 1,849 ti. Hong Kong (1961) 1,896 sas Les 1:38 Taiwan (190) 1,951 Yakut 1,494 1,469 Tuvian 1,728 1,344 Australia (1960) 1,055 Unweighted lean 1,614 Standard Dev, .315 “The child-voran ratio is defined consistently as the number of chilcren below 10 years of a¿e per one woman In the 20-49 age group, However, in the case of some countries of Asia, e, g., Nepal, Burma, Viet-Nam, Laos, South Zorea, and tie Philippines, the ratios are based on data of an undetermined degree of reliability, br, this table Viet-Nam is understood to comprise both the northern and southern parts of the country, SOURCE: USSR Central Statistical Office, Results of the All-Union Concus f Population of 1959, USSR, Suricar Yolure, Gosstatizdat, Moscow (1952), .. 214-565 and “RSFSn Volume, 333-709. Us ke Deroz 61 throuzn 1965, ". Ne» Population Division, The ola: oi of Souih- Jost Ae Asia (Incine Cevion and China: Taiv an), 1950-1969, lited Nations, New York (1955)7 Pre 105-597, “I6-17, 125-2" 256 FERTILITY DIFFERENTIALS AND TRENDS IN JAPAN Kozo Ueda * Demographic Training & Research Centre, Bombay I. ETHODS OF ANALYSIS. 1. Japan is divided into 46 prefectures for administrative purposes. The classification of these prefectures by different stages of social and economic development can often serve as a useful background index for the analysis of socio-economic phenomena in Japan, Here an attempt has been nade to analyze recent fertility differentials and trends in Japan on the basis of such a classification. The prefectures have been classified into six groups according to the proportion of those engaged in primary industry to the total of employed persons as of the 1960 Census date. 1/ 2. The provortion of the workers engaged in primary industry to a total work force represents less than 20 per cent for Group I covering 7 prefectures, 20 to 39 per cent for Group II covering 8 prefectures, 40 to 44 ver cent for Group III covering 11 prefectures, 45 to 49 per cent for Group IV covering 8 prefectures, and 50 per cent or more for Group V covering 11 prefectures respectively. Hokkaido has been dealt with separately as Group VI because of its social and economic peculiarities. 2/ 5. The population of Japan, about 39 million as of the 1960 Census, has been divided into 33 million in Group I, 13 million in Group II, 13 nillion in Group III, 13 million in Group IV, 16 million in Group Y and 5 million in Group VI, This classification implies mainly the extent of relative industrialization in terms of the industrial composition of the vork force, However it signifies simultaneously the degree of development in nany other socio-economic aspects of these localities. In fact the social and economic development can be regarded on more advanced stages in the order of Groups I through V in general as proved by various sorts of statistical indicators. The Group VI which consists singularly of Hokkaido O exception and should be considered out of this order. (See Table l. - 1/ In order to avoid misleading impression, Groups have not been named as industrial, agricultural, etc., though they do imply such a nature for themselves. 2/ Taeuber, I.B., The Population of Japan, Princeton University Press, 1958, pp.88. * See author's note on page 249 257 -II. COMPLETED FERTILITY DIFFERENTIALS. 4. After World Var II, two Japanese Censuses, i.e. 1950 and 1960 Censuses, contained a question on the number of children ever born to ever married women for the purpose of obtaining basic information on fertility of .the Japanese women. The number of children ever born includes by definition both alive and those who died later as of the Census date. The statistical tables derived from this question have been presented in the census publications. These tables show as a rule the number of ever: married women and the average number of children per ever married woman, in some tables together with the total number of children or parity dis- tribution of these women. By Groups of Prefectures. (Table 2) 5. According to the 1960 Census data, the average number of children per ever married woman 3/ ranges from 2.78 for Group I, smallest, to 3.58 for Group V, largest, of which the difference is 29 per cent. The average becomes higher fairly regularly in the order of Groups II, III and IV within this range. The average number of children by age groups reflects influences of the past trend of fertility since the basic data do not show the reproductive performance of a particular cohort by age, but cover different cohorts of the population at different ages. 6. Anong other age groups, the average number of children ever born to women in age groups of 45 and above as of the Census date can be taken as completed family size. This completed family size here is concerned vith a group of women who spent their most fertile ages during the period extending roughly from the early 1900's to the middle of 1940's, when the Japanese birth rate was on the initial stage of decline. These general trends of decreasing fertility have been reflected upon the average as an inclination of becoming smaller at lower ages within this age span. This tendency is clearer and the degree of variation is greater in the Groups of more urbanized prefectures. 7. In the course of this decline with a somewhat faster pace in more urbanized prefectures have obviously caused to widen the differences in fertility among different Groups of prefectures. This is shown by the fact that the difference of the average between Groups I and V is 16 per cent at ages 65 and over, whereas 28 per cent at ages 50 to 54. But such a trend is not always clear in other Groups. 4/ 3/ The average number of children was recalculated by the number of ever narried women as a weight for particular classifications needed in this analysis. The bias resulted from such recalculation, however, may be regarded negligible for the purpose of this analysis in most cases. . 4/ A collation of the average number of children recorded between 1950 and 1960 Censuses was made as to the corresponding cohorts. The results indicated a high coincidence at ages 50 and over especially. 258 Azriculture and Non-agriculture. (Trble 3) 8. The difference in fanily size becomes more distinguished in general when the data are divided into agriculture and non-agriculture according to the industry of the husband of these women. All over average nunber of children represents 3.88 for agriculture and 2.56 for non-agri- culture by the 1960 Census data, showing the difference of more than 50 per cent. This difference between agriculture and non-agriculture shows the smallest at the age group of 40 to 44 or 35 to 39 being 16 to 21 per cent as observed excluding the peculiar age group of 15 to 19. 9% In short the difference by age has a U-shape with its bottom at 75 to 44 years of age. This regularity of changes by age in agriculture end non-agriculture differences especially at older ages can be explained v a decline of fertility which tool: a comparatively faster pace in agri- cultural group in the pre war years. At the same time within each category of agriculture and non-agriculture, there is a tendency that the difference of conpleted family size between localities becomes greater at lower ages as shown already in a general trend. 10. This fact suggests that there was a tendency to widen the differ= ence in fertility among Groups of prefectures in spite of the narrowing zap between agriculture and non-agriculture in the course of graduel decline of fertility in Japan before World Var II. This fact may be explained by changing weight and type of agricultural workers in each Group of prefectures. The nigration must have played an important role in this regard. Jducational Attrninments. (Table 4) 11. These data can also be divided by the educational attainments of he husband of these women in detail, For tae sake of convenience, the educational attainments were classified into three broad categories here: i.e. Primary including those who completed nine years or less of schooling; Secondary including those who completed ten to twelve years of schooling; and Higher including those who completed thirteen years or more of school- ing. 12. Throughout this analysis, the widest variation in fertility differ- entials is recorded when the data are observed by educational attainments. The average nunber of children is 3.358 for Primary against 2.09 for Higher, snowing the difference of more than 60 per cent by the 1960 Census data. Secondary group is between them but much closer to Higher group in its fertility performance. 13. A cimilar U-shape variation by age group is found in the difference f fonily size between Prinary or Secondary and Higher as between agriculture and non-acriculture. ¡esentially the same explanation may be applied articul--"y *o narrowing the ray in fertility differentials at lower ares itnin a, el er leted fertilitr. 259 14. Thus we may generalize that in the course of slow decline of fertility in the pre war years, the difference of fertility was lessened among different industrial groups and groups of different educational attain- ments. 5/ However at the initial stage of such a decline the difference among different localities rather increased perhaps owing to rapidly chang- ing population composition by these traits in different prefectures through vigorous migratory movement of the population. III. RECENT TRENDS OF FERTILITY. (Tables 5 - 6) 15. On the basis of census data, much can be said on the completed family size which reflects the past trends of fertility recorded in actual reproductive histories of a certain group of women. But these data do not show much about the recent trends of fertility. Thus first of all crude birth rates have been calculated in the same manner. In general the birth rate is lowest in Group I and highest in Groups V and VI. 16. In 1947, when baby boom started, the difference of crude birth rates became very much less mainly because of a sudden rise of rates in Groups of nore urvanized prefectures. But with a sharp drop of these rates in the following years, the difference grew sharply and reached a maximum in the year of 1954, a few years before the national birth rate began to be somewhat stagnant on the low level. This widening of the difference during this period was attributable to more rapid decrease of birth rates in Groups of more urbanized prefectures. 17. In very recent years, the birth rates of less urbanized prelectures caught up the low level attained earlier by more urbanized prefectures. Besides owing to slight rise of birth rates in more urbanized prefectures, the difference of these rates seems to have disappeared among Groups of pre- fectures. However, greater and more regular differences were found in gross reproduction rates. As indicated by crude birth rates, the difference among localities became very much smuller in gross reproduction rates also in the course of the recent decline of fertility. But the difference between Groups I and V was still nearly 10 per cent in 1963. 18. Trends of age-specific fertility rates are more suggestive of the background of such trends in gross reproduction rates. It is found that a decline of gross reproduction rates during this decade has taken place at ages 30 and over and at the youngest age group of 15 to 19. The decrease of rates is very little at ages 20 to 29. The recent rise of fertility in more urbanized Groups is due to greater contribution to a total births by a slight rise in fertility at age group of 25 to 29. 5/ These data were further examined homogenizing duration of marriage. The results showed that the effect of diverse years in marriage as a group of people on the whole was not so large as to alter general tendencies so far stated. 260 -19. After all greater differences in fertility between localities are much attributable to these differences at age groups other than 25 to 29. Above all, since the second greatest number of births are shared by mothers at ages 20 to 24, the differences of fertility at this age group can be said most responsible for the fertility differentials in Japan. lloreover the age-specific marital fertility rates prove that strikingly little changes have occurred in these rates at age groups under 30, while very sharp drops have been recorded at age groups of 30 and over. 20. Thus it can be concluded that declining trends of Japanese fertility in recent years have been brought about by a decrease of marital fertility at higher ages and a decrease of overall fertility at lower ages, while fertility level has been kept almost constant at ages 25 to 29. Since the level of marital fertility has hardly changed at younger ages, there must have been some changes in marriage pattern at these ages. As a matter of fact during this decade the proportion of married women at age groups 15 to 19 and 20 to 24 dropped considerably in any Group of prefectures, but to relatively greater extent in Groups of less urbanized prefectures. IV. CONCLUSIONS. 21. It has been generally observed in this analysis that the difference of fertility among different localities is inclined to increase at the initial stage of fertility decline, and at the later stage the difference becomes less in accordance with a wide spread of such a decline in all the localities, as already known from various studies on fertility differentials in the past. 6/ Toreover, in the process of these fertility changes, more urbanized localities tend to precede almost always these changes. In fact a slow decline in the pre war years, a baby boom rise immediately after World War II, and a rapid decline in the post war years, all these important changes in the Japanese fertility were initiated by Groups of more urbanized prefectures and followed by Groups of less urbanized prefectures. 22. It may be concluded also that a recent decline of fertility in Japan has been attained by combined effects of decreases in marital ferti- lity at higher ages because of wide spread practices of family planning and declines in overall fertility at lower ages owing to changes in marriage pattern. Especially a decline of fertility due to the decrease in the proportion of married women at younger ages, as combined with a wide diffusion of family planning among them, seems to be a typical and the most influential transformation of reproductive performance of women in processes of industrialization, modernization and urbanization in Japan. 6/ e.g. Taeuber, I.B., The Population of Japan, Princeton University Press, 1958, pp.238 et seq. or in general United Nations, The Determinants and Consequences of Population Trends, New York, 1953, pp.85 et seq. 261 23. But at the same time it is doubtful that the same pattern of changes in fertility differentials observed between localities is appliable to all sections of the population. There is definitely a tendency that when once fertility started to decline, such a decline taltes place in: all sections of the population rather simultaneously and gives such an effect as to narrow the gaps between different sections. But the extent and the pace of such a decline are divergent among different sections. 24. After all the general pattern of changes in fertility differentials between localities may be a complication of trends in various sections of the ponulation each of which does not always change in a uniform manner, Thus in spite of narrowing effect upon fertility differentials within each section or between different sections of the population along with a decline of fertility, its differences are always maintained rather firmly among different localities. 25. In this connexion, it should be emphasized here that there are always appreciable differences in fertility among Groups of prefectures in this analysis even if the data are homogenized in terms of industriel category, educational attainments or duration of marriage. The homogeniza- tion of a few factors like this can extinguish some sorts of differences, but not all of them. The differences which are rooted deeper underlying as a complicated combination of innumerable factors challenge denographers to a further study on this subject. Author's Note: The author of this paper is a United Nations technical assistance expert at the Demographic Training and Research Centre, Ghembur, Bombay, India. The views presented are his own and not necessarily those of the United Nations or the Demographic Training and Research Centre. 262 Table 1. Some characteristics of Groups of prefectures. 1960 Group Population Per cent Per cent Activity rates Percent 2/ density urban children 15 yrs. of age females per population O - 14 and over _____ completed square Secondary or kilometre Males Females Higher schooling G- I 1125 83.4 -26.3 83.7 41.7 36.7 G- II 272 57.1 29.9 85.4 52.5 27.3 G- III 265 51.0 31.4 84.4 55.5 24.3 G- IV 215 48.0 31.8 84.3 57.7 23.8 G- V 158 45.5 34.2 84.5 59.6 20.2 G- VI 64 49.3 33.4 85.2 44.7 22.1 All Japan 253 60.8 30.0 84.3 50.6 28.4 al Per cent of females 15 years of age and over. Source: Bureau of Statistics; Population of Japan, 1960; Summary of the Results of 1960 Population Census of Japan, Japan, July 1963. Table 2. Average number of children per ever married woman by age for each Group of prefectures. 1960 Age All Group Group Group Group Group Group group Japan I II III IV Vv VI Total 3.04 2.78 3.22 3.35 3.44 3.58 3.33 15-19 0.32 0.32 0.38 0.40 0.47 0.39 0.31 20-24 0.70 0.61 0.72 0.76 0.73 0.84 0.69 25-29 1.43 1.22 1.44 1.51 1.47 1.66 1.53 30-34 2. 26 1.93 2.21 2.32 2.31 2.55 2.46 35-39 2.86 2.44 2.72 2.83 2.85 3.12 3.24 40-44 3.50 2.96 3.25 3.36 3.42 3.72 4.15 45-49 4.18 3.50 3.89 4.00 4.14 4.41 5.03 50-54 4.68 3.88 4.40 4.52 4.73 4.95 5.57 55-59 4.93 4.08 4,67 4.76 5.00 5.19 5.87 60-64 4.97 4.13 4.70 4.71 5.00 5.09 6.21 65 + 4.96 4.45 4.99 5.01 5.14 5.17 6.07 Source: Bureau of Statistics; 1960 Population Census of Japan, Ten Percent Sample Tabulation, Part 3 Fertility; Japan, November 1964. 263 Table 3. Average number of children per ever married nen db end industrial ip of busbon 1960 Âge All Group Group Group Group Group Group group Japan I II III IV Vv VI Hon-ogricvltere Total 2.56 2.36 2.57 2.61 2.71 2.84 2.76 15-19 0.28 0.24 0.29 0.34 0.26 0.30 0.30 20-24 0.65 0.59 0.68 0.71 0.68 0.76 0.66 25-29 1.51 1.20 1.35 1.43 1,54 1.49 1.41 30-34 2.10 1.92 2.15 2.24 2.16 2,55 2.25 35-39 2.69 2.50 2.70 2.82 2.73 2,96 2.97 40-44 3.29 3.08 3.28 3.39 3.56 3,62 3.78 45-49 3.87 3.61 3.91 3.98 4,03 4.25 4,54 50-54 4,22 3.91 4,26 4,56 4,47 4,64 4,93 55-59 4,51 4.02 4.35 4.34 4,61 4.77 5.16 60-64 4.18 3.85 4,22 4.33 4,54 4.44 5.20 65+ 3.95 3.68 4,02 3.99 4,20 4,17 4,98 Agriculture Total 3.88 3.79 3.88 3.83 3.83 3.92 4,28 15-19 0.31 0.23 0.32 O. 0.35 0.29 0.37 20-24 0.87 0.80 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.94 0.80 25-29 1.83 1.69 1.78 1.77 1.77 1.95 1.92 30-34 2.78 2.55 2.66 2.71 2.71 2.95 3.09 35-59 3.38 3.12 3.20 3.27 7.28 3.58 7,94 40-44 4.09 3.69 3.85 3.92 3.95 4,39 5,01 45-49 4.91 4,46 4.65 4.71 4.89 5.22 6,06 50-54 5.48 4.97 5.53 5.27 5.54 5.78 6.68 55-59 5.68 5.23 5.49 5.48 5.74 5,92 6,93 60-64 5.62 5.27 5.59 5.41 5.66 5.76 7.08 65+ 5.40 5.28 5.37 5.35 5.39 5.39 6.82 Source: Same ss Table 2, 264 Table 4. Average number of children per ever married woman by age and educational attainments of husband. a/ 1960 Age All Group Group Group Group Group Group _group _. Japan I II III IV vo. VI 15-19 0.32 0.30 0.35 0.34 0.33 0.31 0.35 20-24 0.79 0.68 0.79 0.81 0.80 0.91 0.78 25-29 1.57 1.36 1.54 1.61 1.59 1.79 1.71 30-34 2.45 2.16 2.39 2.50 2.48 2.74 2.68 35-39 3.04 2.75 2.95 3.07 3.06 3.36 3.42 40-44 3.67 3.30 3.56 3.67 3.69 4.10 4.33 45-49 4.37 3.89 4.27 4.38 4.53 4.87 5.23 50-54 4.90 4.31 4.82 4.91 5.17 5.42 5.77 55-59 5.12 4.54 5.03 5.11 5.38 5.62 6.06 60-64 5.12 4.52 5.12 5.13 5.37 5.44 6.34 65 + 5.04 4.48 4.93 5.06 5.21 5.23 6.06 Secondary 2.28 2.10 2.29 2.37 2.52 2.53 2.22 15-19 0.22 0.20 0.20 0.28 0.21 0.26 0.16 20-24 0.61 0.54 0.64 0.65 0.63 0.72 0.56 25-29 1.50 1.17 1.37 1.39 1.35 1.49 1.29 30-34 2.03 1.87 2.09 2.14 2.14 2.28 2.03 35-59 2.54 2.39 2.56 2.65 2.65 2.76 2.68 40-44 3.13 2.92 3.09 3.27 3.32 3.43 3.45 45-49 3.70 3.44 3.72 3.80 4.00 4.00 4.06 50-54 4.01 3.68 4.07 4.08 4.37 4.37 4.50 55-59 4.08 3.73 4.17 4.11 4.57 4.42 4.46 60-64 4.16 3.80 4.17 4.07 4.68 4.64 5.18 65 + 4.22 3.79 4.18 4.24 4.49 4.77 5.17 Higher 2.09 1.94 2.17 2.36 2.28 2. 40 2.00 15-19 0.19 0.18 0.12 0.20 0.26 0.21 0.20 20-24 0.52 0.48 0.57 0.59 0.58 0.60 0.54 25-29 1.12 1.05 1.21 1.29 1.20 1.26 1.08 30-54 1.83 1.70 1.94 2.05 1.96 2.10 1.89 55-59 2.28 2.16 2.36 2.49 2.42 2.51 2.37 40-44 2.84 2.71 2.92 3.05 2.95 3.14 3.07 45-49 3.37 3.16 3.45 3.57 3.59 3.72 4.06 50-54 3.56 3.35 3.66 3.91 3.73 4.00 4,02 55-59 3.55 3.37 3.60 3.78 3.81 3.88 4.13 60-64 3.63 3.56 3.48 3.80 3.67 3.91 3.95 65 + 3.82 3.66 3.78 3.96 4.17 3.94 4.86 a 4s for the classification of educational attainments, see the text. Source: Same as Table 2. 265 Table 5. Crude birth rates for each Group of prefectures, 1 - ' . Per 1000 population Year All Group Group Group Group Group Group Japan I II III Iv V VI 1935 31.6 28.0 31.6 32.2 33.7 35.3 55.8 1947 34.3 32.3 34.6 34.8 34.4 35.7 36.7 1950 28.1 25.4 27.1 27.9 28.4 31.2 34.2 51 25.3 22.5 24.4 25.3 25.7 28.4 31.0 52 23.4 20.3 22.3 23.4 23.9 27.2 28.9 53 21.5 18.7 20.8 21.6 22.1 24.9 26.0 54 20.0 17.4 19.2 20.1 20.7 23.6 25.7 55 19.4 16.9 19.0 19.6 20.3 22.5 21.7 56 18.4 16.3 18.0 18.7 19.0 21.3 20.4 57 17.2 15.6 17.0 17.1 17.5 19.6 19.0 58 18.0 16.8 17.8 18.2 18.0 19.8 18.9 59 17.5 16.7 17.1 17.5 17.3 18.9 18.9 60 17.2 16.9 16.8 16.8 16.7 18.3 - 18.6 61 16.9 17.1 16.5 16.2 16.2 17.4 18.2 62 17.0 17.8 16.6 16.0 16.1 16.8 18.0 63 17.3 18.3 17.0. 16.0 16.3 16.7 18.2 Source: Ministry of Health and Welfare, Vital Statistics of Japan, Vol.1l of each year. Table 6. Gross reproduction rates for each Group of prefectures, 1954 - '63. Year All Group Group Group Group Group Group Japan I II III Iv v VI 1954 1.199 0.971 1.163 1.249 1.293 1.479 1.445 55 1.149 0.927 1.137 1.206 1.262 1.405 1.321 56 1.078 0.878 1.063 1.147 1.169 1.323 1.224 57 0.990 0.822 0.987 1.041 1.066 1.207 1.116 58 1.025 0.870 11.024 1.099 1.094 1.217 1.105 59 0.993 0.860 0.987 1.062 1.054 1.168 1.097 60 0.974 0.872 0.972 1.025 1.023 1.121 1.070 61 0.950 0.874 0.949 0.985 0.983 1.064 1.034 62 0.952 0.906 0.957 0.974 0.985 1.022 1.010 63 0.963 0.924 0.982 0.975 1.003 1.012 1.006 Source: Same as Table 5. However the basic female population by age group has been estimated except for census years by the author. 266 ANALYTICALLY GRADUATED FERTILITY OF MARRIED WOMEN IN AUSTRALIA WITH RE- SPECT TO THE DURATION OF MARRIAGE (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) by Ivo Lah, Ljubljana, Yugoslavia Let us denote with ZZ the number of women being (*-95)or more but less than (# #95) years married on the day of the census and with Aé the total number of live-born children of the generation Lt . The quotient Ke Le /1/ means the empirical or crude cumulative fertility of a woman Z years married and the difference Holt) = Folt+1)- Po (E) /2/ weans the empirical or crude one-year fertility of a woman Z Years married. Æ (6) = fhe Statistical Yearbook of Australia, 1958, contains on page 622 the table entitled "Nuptial Confinements: Duration of Marriage and Issue of Mothers, 1956". An analytical graduation of cumulative and one-year fertility %/() and /o/f). has to be made on grounds of these empiric data, specified in the columns 1, 2, 3, 4 of tab- le 1. The child-bearing might be conceived as an effect of the "force of fertility ust), which is measured by the increased” (?) in the in- finitesimal time &7, computed per unit of time and function itself i. e. : dF (6) Fi) dt /3/ At the beginning of marriage £=0 , is 7/0)=0 whereas J Fo) is positive. Hence AE) = Ale) = + oo /4/ The longest duration of marriage is an indefinite quantity. More- over, the data obtained from old people are often unreliable. The above mentioned Statistical Yearbook contains only data up to the first 25 years of wedded life. Therefore only data up to (6) 267 uw = 25 /5/ bave been included into the analytical graduation. In addition to the quantity on the extreme upper limit Fo (0) = FR, (25) = 805 /6/ - see table 1, column 4 —- the derivation on this point is required for the analytical graduation. l’or this purpose by the least squ- ares method, we determined from the data: o (23)= 1,07 (24) = 1,41 Ja / fol25) = 8,08 the straight line 7,54 + 0,505 (t — 24) /8/ lence the derivation has to be d Frew) d = 7 = 0505 /$/ [93] / Therefore À F(w) ad 0505 400) = ad = Fra) SP = Goa 700625 N0/ (7) The fertility of various groups of women being different, the (8) (9) function /3/ has to contain at least one parameter which charac- terizes the typical properties of the fertility of observed wo- men. Let us first suppose that there is only one parameter @ = constant. /11/ The simplest function that meets conditions /4/, /10/, /11/ is dF) w 1 7 ; “(== > E DIF - 2D) 112/ The integral of this differential equation reads 268 Fo lw) (w) t with enough precision all the typical properties of the fertility b(t) = FO - E OE 97 A 13/ 7=1-5 165 (10) In practice one parameter /11/ is not always sufficient to show of observed women. For this reason several parameters @, @,,.-.-@, are necessary. In order to simplify the integration let us put Q = 94247 +... + 70,777 /14/ We get thus - MO DE. 9,7 Pre o) A and this is the required generalized formula for the analytical graduation of empirical cumulative fertility (11) The parameters @p are to be calculated by the least squares met— hod w-{ Le > 271-%) (&, = 27. minimum /18/ in which & represents the empirical value _ Po (t) D = Bío) 17/ (12) In the most practical way the graduation is feasible with natural logarithms of the functions Ln and 2, . Taylor's series of n Pa is Ctr = ah + LP 4 R 8/ o (13) (14) (15) 269 Remainder R being a small quantity, may be neglected. Therefore (B,-B)"- D (6 BC, 2, /19/ From /16/ and Ne/ follows = Plt, both)? \ ata \ Ld 7— & | /20/ Varying the parameters y we get from /20/ the following system of normal equations, which are Récessary and sufficient for the determination of ay, Qe Op * B [PR] + DIPR] +=. 4 An [PY] = [A] D [PP] + EPR] +. 4 In 1 PY 1°] = AD] mo /21/ 2 [P77*]+2 PR] + +2/P7 47) A = PIC H%-vDE) The more parameters we have, the better the graduated At) appro- aches the empirical Æ(#). In practice three parameters are suffi- cient. For the above mentioned statistics of Australian women, 1956, we got the following results: WD = 1,5625 ds = -2,2498 ad; = -1,0258 /22/ 03 = —0, 2697 Fas) = 8,08 The differences (F-R) are very small. Compare the column 4 with 6 in table l! The standard deviation is 2 L(F-R)? _ 0 048 /23/ =L (16) (17) (18) (19) 270 For this reason in the graph 1 is only "o represented but not 5 The numerical values of the one-year fertility ratios Jo 42, and fa (€) are given in the 5 th and in the 7 th column of table 1 and graphically in the graph 2. The differences (73-70) are con- siderable. Analytical graduation is therefore necessary. In the first year of marriage the one-year fertility is very large. According the Australian census of 1956 one hundred women have born in the first year of marriage 102 children and in the second year only about 20. From the third to tenth year of marri- age, the fertility decreases, after this the fertility "inreases", The cause is not the increase of the number of births, but of di- vorces. Matrimonies without, or with few children are readily and more frequently divorced, and therefore the fertility of the remaining wedlocks apparently increases. — It appears from table 1, column 2, that in the first year there are 26.032 married mo thers, while in the 25 th year, there are only 120. The death of married people alone cqnnot cause so bit a reduction. A con- siderable number of divorces must exist. In an analogous way, we graduated the cumulative fertility of Australian married mothers in 1950 analytically. We got the follo- wing parameters: WD = 1,2363 Qs = -0,9241 Q = -0,1439 /24/ Qs = -0,0451 F25) = 8:19 By linear extrapolation of the parameters of the year 1950 and 1956 according to the formla 3 Koos6 — 2 K 1950 = K 1068 /25/ we got the following data for 1968: wd = 2,2149 Qy = -4,9012 O2 = -2,7896 A - 0,1189 /26/ F(25) = 1,86 (20) (21) 271 Graduated one-year fertility ratios for 1950, 1056, 1968 are represented in graph 3. lence analytical graduation renders very easyly the computation of demographic perspectives for the near future too. In order to compute analytically graduated values easier and fas- ter, the values of the functions É and 7”, V=42,3,--- 6 , are specified in table 2. The main purpose of this paper is to show that analytical gradua- tion cen be successfully applied to the fertility, regarding the age of women and men, but also regarding the duration of marriage as well. Tue procedure is in both cases equal. 272 TABLE 1 D ti Empiri uration Total Total pirical Graduated Marriage Married Issue Fertility: Fertility: lothers Year Cumu— One- Cumu— One- lative year lative year £ Ly Ky | Blt) | fort) | EM | 64) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 0,00 1,02 0,000 1,016 1 26032 26544 1,02 0,21 1,016 0,240 2 22880 28251 1,23 0,49 1,256 0,399 3 21946 37673 1,72 0,32 1,655 0,384 4 19990 40846 2,04 0,30 2,039 0,341 5 18594 43508 2,34 0,28 2,380 0,296 6 15818 41398 2,62 0,27 2, 676 0,259 7 13741 39739 2,89 0,27 2,935 0,231 8 11417 36054 3,16 0,22 3,166 0,213 9 9838 33249 3,38 0,26 3,379 0,200 10 8590 31243 3,64 0,19 3,579 |. 0,198 11 6559 25126 3,83 0,22 3,717 0,196 12 4844 19623 4,05 0,22 3,973 0,203 13 3794 16192 4,27 0,16 4,176 0,212 14 3761 16648 4,43 0,17 4,388 0,222 15 3340 15377 4,60 0,28 4,610 0,239 16 2524 12316 4,88 0,35 4,849 0,257 17 2069 10825 5,23 0,31 5,106 0,276 18 1406 7784 5,54 0,25 5,382 0,298 19 1042 6034 5,79 0,42 5, 680 0,324 20 848 5269 6,21 0,20 6,004 0,350 21 596 3823 6,41 0,32 6,354 0,381 22 438 2949 6,73 0,34 6,735 0,413 23 300 2122 7,07 0,40 7,148 0,447 24 198 1479 7,47 0,61 7,595 0,485 25 120 970 8,08 8,080 273 TABLE 2 THE VALUES OF THE FUNCTIONS E AD 7” Pa 2 € | 78 | 7 | 7 AZ 7. 7 ge 1 | 3,219 | 2,259 | 5,103 | 11,526 | 26,036 | 58,812 | 132,849 2 | 2,526 | 1,606 | 2,578 | 4,140 6,648 | 10,675 17,141 3 | 2,120 | 1,240 | 1,538 | 1,908 2, 366 2,935 3, 640 4 | 1,833 | 0,993 | 0,985 | 0,978 0,971 0,963 0,956 5 | 1,609 | 0,809 | 0,655 | 0,5930 0,429 0,347 0,281 6 | 1,427 | 0,667 | 0,445 | 0,297 0,198 0,132 0,08€ 7 | 1,273 | 0,553 | 0,306 | 0,169 0,083 0,052 0,029 8 | 1,189 | 0,459 | 0,211 | 0,097 0,045 0,020 0,009 9 | 1,022 | 0,382 | 0,146 | 0,056 0,021 0,008 0,003 10 | 0,916 | 0,316 | 0,100 | 0,082 0,010 0,003 0,001 11 | 0,821 | 0,261 | 0,068 | 0,018 0,005 0,001 12 | 0,734 | 0,214 | 0,046 | 0,010 0,002 13 | 0,654 | 0,174 | 0,030 | 0,005 0,001 14 | 0,580 | 0,140 | 0,020 | 0,003 15 | 0,511 | 0,111 | 0,012 | 0,001 16 | 0,446 | 0,086 | 0,007 | 0,001 17 | 0,386 | 0,066 | 0,004 18 | 0,329 | 0,049 | 0,002 19 | 0,274 | 0,034 | 0,001 20 | 0,223 | 0,023 | 0,001 21 | 0,174 | 0,014 22 | 0,128 | 0,008 23 | 0,083 | 0,003 24 | 0,041 | 0,001 274 Graph 1 fo (t) Empirical Cumulative Fertility 8 — of Australian Women with Respect to Duration of Marriage, 1756 275 ft) 1,0 }— 0,8 ho 0,1 “ Graph 2 One-year Fertility of Australian Women with Respect to Duration of Marriage, 1956 : empirical f, (t) e——=———— graduated fz (1) Graph 3 f3 (1) , 1 Graduated One-year Fertility of Australian liomen rith Respect lo Duration of Marriage 277 LEVELS AND TRENDS OF FERTILITY AND ASSOCIATED FACTORS IN ECAFE COUNTRIES By M. V.Raman Head, Demography Unit Indian Statistical Institute Calcutta 35, India 1e Introduction: The population of the ECAFE region has reached a formidable size, More than half of the world's population now live in this region which covers only about a fifth of the earth's land area. The Asian and the Oceania parte of the ECAFE region share between them 99 per cent and 1 per cent(even less) of the total population. Recent years have seen spectacular reductions in mortality in several of the ECAFE countries largely as a result of institutional development such as better health facilities available to the population, Meanwhile birth rates have remained more or less steady at high levels leading inevitably to an acceler- ation in the rate of growth of population. This phenomenon of accelerated growth is typical of the developing countries of the world. The general recognition that such rapid growth of the population in these countries is inimical to the achievement of higher standards of living has focussed the attention on their natality levels and trends. However, lack of comprehensive and reliable national data on relevant characteristics of the population for most of the countries of the region makes a detailed study of the demographic situation and population problems less realistic. Nevertheless, compared to the pre-war period fairly appreciable improvements have now been achieved in the adequacy of the birth registr= ation systems in a number of countries. About nine countries are deemed to have "relatively good birth registration systems" (I.e. at least 90 per cent of the actual number of births being registered) on the basis of their reliability as repor- ted to the Statistical Office of the United Nations(1)e Besides, (1) United Nations, Demographic Year Book 1965,New York (1966). 278 in recent years fairly reliable estimates of vital rates have been made from census or survey data by international and other agencies for a number of countries where registr- ation statistics are normally deficient. Thus, the estimates of crude birth rates given in Table 1(for tables see Appendix) and all ef which are not based on registration data may there- fore be accepted as generally indicating the true level. 2. Level of fertility: Birth rates in the region are roughly twice as high as those ordinarily associated with developd countries. They are usually found to lie between 35 and 45 per thousand population. Countries experiencing high birth rates currently i.e. of the order of 40 or above are Brunei, Burma, Cambodia, India, Iran, Indonesia, Federation of Malaya, Pakistan, Nepal, Philippines and Thailand with gross reproduction rates ranging from 2.6 to 3.5 (Table 2) Ut may be mentioned that for some countries the figures for the recent period are not readily available). Within the region Japan, Australia and New Zealand which are econo. mically more developed than the rest of the countries show birth rates characteristic of any advanced country, The birth rates and gross reproduction rates are in the range of 17 to 26 and 1.0 to 1.7 respectively. 3e It is recognized that the crude birth rate is not a satisfactory index for measuring fertility levels or trends as it is affected by the age composition of the population. The gross reproduction rate, on the other hand, is a more satisfactory measure of the differences in fertility among countries as it is not influenced by the age structure of the population. 4. Trends of fertility: Post-war trends of birth rates are shown in Table 1. Till 1960 the birth rates in a number of countries were about 40. Of these, the birth rates in Tai- wan, Korea(North) and Singapore have fallen to a level between 35 and 40 since 1960 which trend may possibly con- tinue. The Japanese birth rate which was around 30 during the early post=war period has recorded a fall of about 50 per cent in the course of 20 years and the gross reprodu- ction rate has similarly decrSased from 2.3 to ne&ly 1.0. This was evidently the result of an abrupt transition since the war. The emergence of favourable conditions for the widespread adoption of fertility control measures made such signal reductions in fertility possible in such a = short span of time. report indicates that substantial reduction in the birth rate has occurred in South Korea during 1960-66 as a result of the family planning 279 programmes{2). Birth rates in Australia and New Zealand are quite low by comparison with the rest of the countries of the region except Japan and the trend exhibited is one of slow and gradual decline, In India and Pakistan there is yet little evidence of the birth rate showing signs of decline, On the other hand, the prospects of a small rise in the birth in India in the near future cannot entirely be discounted. 5. It may be noted that while birth rates in the ECAFE countries with the exception of Australia, New Zealand and Japan are generally high, some differences in their levels do exist, An examination of the child-woman ratio and the gross reproduction rate more or less substantiates this. The high level conforms to the pattern normally found in the developing countries all over the world where the vast majority of the people exercise little or no control over fertility. It does not necessarily follow from this that reproduction is near the biological maximum in these coun= tries, As a matter of fact, much higher rates approximating 60 have been reported elsewhere e.g. in the Cocos Islands situated in the Indian Ocean(3)., Thus, the scope for a further increase in the birth rates is always there,although one may normally anticipate declines, Similarly, birth rates in the countries experiencing a moderate level of fertility, say a birth rate around 30, could possibly move in either directions, It is also quite probable that in some of the developing countries of the ECAFE region a phase not obser- ved in the classical demographic transition viz, declining mortality and rising natality may emerge accelerating the growth of population at least initially till counter=acted by effective birth control practice. At the same time, in the event of the economic situation deteriorating, one may even anticipate a rise in the death rate, This may, no doubt, be an exceptional demographic development. 6 It would be interesting to examine the pattern of ferti- lity change in the different age groups of the female popu- lation in those countries where birth rates had shown a declining trend (Table 3). Evidently such a decline will result if all or most of the prime reproductive age groups (2) IPPF, International Planned Parenthood News, No 155, London, (January 1967). (3) Smith, T.E., The Cocos-Keeling Islands: A Demographic Laboratory, Population Studies, XIV, 94-130 (15607. 280 record a fall in fertility over years (sometimes the trend is liable to be misinterpreted if the end-points of the period considered show deviations from the normal run). In Taiwan, Ryukyu Is., Thailand and Japan childbearing has decreased in all or most of the age groups and it was also observed that the trend had been maintained throughout the period. In Ceylon childbearing has followed a different pattern. In the earlier and more fertile age groups upto 30, it has decreased and this had been to some extent compensated by increased fertility during the later years, In Philippines, even though the age specific birth rates had improved in 1963 compared to 1956, a closer examination of the yearly rates during the intervening period reveals that the rise in fertility is a recent pheno- menon. Te Correlates of fertility levels and trends: A striking fea- ture that is observed in the region is the fairly high and almost stable level of birth rate in the post-war years in most of the countries. The notable exceptions to this is Japan on the one hand where the birth rate has recorded a drop unprecedented in history during the last two decades and Australia and New Zealand on the other where low levels of birth rate had prevailed during the same period without any conspicuous trend. 8. The factors that affect fertility are numerous and com- plex in their inter-relation and their net influence on fer- tility may be positive or negative. While it is recognized that fertility levels could be influenced by factors affecting biological capacity to produce live births, paucity of appro- priate data in the developing countries makes a precise as >ssment of the role of such factors impossible. 9. Current levels and recent trends of fertility are the resultant of a complex variety of factors, All factors obviously do not influence fertility in the same manner, Some are "boosters" while othersare "depressors" of ferti- lity. Increasing urbanization, rising levels of educaticn, declines in familism and so on are usually known to cause fertility declines. Similarly economic development and incre- adding age at marriage are expected to release forces that may affect fertility to change in either direction. On the other hand, better health conditions or better nutrition often tend to enhance fertility. 10. Fertility levels are also affected by cultural values and norms, Though social and economic reforms may cause changes in the cultural values, the process is generally 281 slow, While some of the cultural norms and practices are conducive to maintaining high fertility others tend to depress fertility with the result that procreation falls below its biological limit, As an immediate consequence of the erosion of traditional values and practices follow- ing economic and social reforms fertility might even shew signs of increase(rahter than decrease) in some of the developing countries especially for the fact that firm establishment of family planning in these countries is going to be time-consuming. That is perhaps why it is often felt that in India birth rate is likely to rise for a few years to come as a result of certain depressing factors like restriction on widow remarriage and taboos - on sex relations becoming weaker unless arrested by masse ive family planning practice. According to a survey in Mysore (India), widowhood reduced completed family size by 1.0 children in rural areas(4). As regards acceptance of family planning and the consequent reduction in ferti- lity, it cannot be readily assumed that all the develop= ing nations of the ECAFE region will necessarily follow the lead shown by industrialized countries of the West. Rather, it is more likely that the peculiar culture and age-long tradition of some of the societies may inhibit the development of any strong desire for a small+sized family at least in the near future. 11, Age at marriage: Age at marriage and proportion marrying are considered to be important determinants of fertility. In current demographic practice it is the age at marriage of the female that is often taken into account. The age of the husband or the disparity between the age of the wife and that of the husband which has so far re= ceived only inadequate attention could also influence the fertility performance of the couple. The estimated mean age at marriage mean-age-at-marriage for females in most of the countries of the region is above 20 years, Ryukyu Islands and Japan showing the highest of nearly 25 years. India and Pakistan are conspicuous for their relatively low marriage age of 16-17 years (Table 4). The trend in the age at marriage is one of very slow increase, In India and Pakistan lack of alternative roles for women beside the familial ones is among the reasons contributing to early marriage. It is perhaps less true to say that early (4) United Nations, The Mysore Population Study, ST/SOA/Series A/34, 113, New York (1961). 282 marriage and childbearing preclude alternative non-domestic roles. 12. It is generally felt that raising the age at marriage is expected to lower fertility. But it may be noted that an increase in the age at marriage or a decrease in the proportion married does not necessarily lead to a reduction in the birth rate. Much depends upon the age sector that is involved, It is sometimes argued that small increments in the age at marriage that is already low may even lead to higher fertility in as much as such changes are associated with more favourable health conditions for reproduction. The effect of the age at marriage on Indian fertility has been studied by various investigators and as the results are divergent it is difficult to come to any positive con- clusion in this regard, Calculations indicate a decline of the order of 30 per cent in the Indian birth rate if the female marriage age is raised to 19-20 years (5). We, how- ever feel that in a situation like this where a change in marriage tan give rise to physiological and psychological changes in the woman which may influence subsequent fer- tility performances, prediction without a clear undercten ding of the nature of such influence is bound t puriouse 13. Socio-economic factors: It is hardly possible to make a precise evaluation of the social and economic changes occurring in the developing countries for want of adequate data, However, a fairly meaningful idea of the nature of such changes may be obtained by a consideration of the avaikábility and utilization of certain consumer commodi= ties and social amenities as presented in Table 5. The trends in the indicators of development undoubtedly suggest that improvements have taken place in varying degrees in the developing countries but whether or not there exists a strong association between them and the trends of fertility discussed earlier is not clear. 14. It is, however, encouraging to note that in recent times studies on the relationship between economic growth and fertility have received some attention. An Indian study has revealed that rural marital fertility (by and large unaffected by birth control practice) which is low at low levels of living gradually rises with increasing level of living reaching a peak value at a (5) Agarwala, S.N., Effect of a Rise in Female Marriage Age on Birth Rate in India, Paper presented to the World Population Conference, Belgrade, 1965, B.1/V/E/18. 283 critical level and then falls with further improvement in it (6,7). Economic advancement per se cannot automatically diminésh fertility. It is therefore desirable to identify and u examine the forces that are generated by improved levels of living to depress fertility especially in the absence of effective family planning practice, 15. To sum up: Spectacular reductions in death rates and the persistdnce of a somewhat "sticky" birth rates in most of the developing countries of the region have caused considerable acceleration in the growth of popula= tion which in effect has set in motion the scare of a population explosion in this area, Birth rates in the region are nearly double those usually found in the deve= loped countries of the West, the notable exceptions being Japan, Australia and New Zealand, Japan has slashed its birth rate to half its former level in the course of two decades, While the birth rates in countries like Taiwan, North Korea and Singapore have shown a declining trend, no such evidence is discernible in the case of India, Pakis- tan or Thailand, It is even speculated that the birth rate in some of these countries may get an initial boost with the weakening of the traditional fertility depressing factors as a consequence of economic development amd and - social reforms, unless checked by effective family planning practice, On the other hand, the present food shortage poses a serious problem for a number of ECAFE countries and if the situation deteriorates further, the observed trend in the death rate may even receive a set back. This, however, will be an exceptional demographic development, (6) Gupta, P.B. and Malaker, C.R,, Fertility Differential with Level of Living and Adjustment of Fertility, Birth and Death Rates, Sankhya, 25 , Parts 1 & 2, 2627 (1963). (7) Gupta, P.B., Fertility and Economic Growth, Pape? presented to the Asian Population Conference, New Delhi, 1963. 284 APPENDIX Table 1: Crude birth rates per 1000 population in selected countries in the ECAFE region Country 1945-49 1950-54 1955-59 1960-64 Brunei 44,6 52.9 54,0 44.3 Burma - 43 50 - Cambodia - 51 45(a) - Ceylon 38.2 - 38.5 36.6 34.9 China: Taiwan 40.2 45.9 42,8 37.1 Hong Kong - 34,2 36.3 32.8 India 39.9(b) 41,7(c) 38.4 (d) Indonesia - 52 - 43(e) Iran 48 45 48 Japan 30.2 23.7 18.2 17.2 Korea: North - 46.3(f) a 38.5(g) Republic of - 45 44,7 - Malaya 42,5 44,1 44,4 40.3 Mongolia - 26.9(f) 36,2 = Nepal 45 = - 81: 16h) Pakistan sa 43-46 (e Philippines 51(3) 49(k) = = Ryukyu Is. 36.1 35.5 29.2 23.7 Singapore 46.4 45.5 42.8 35.6 Thailand 47(1) 46(k) - 46(m) Viet Nam:Republic of a 38.0 34,1 - Australia 23.1 23,0 22.6 21.9 New Zealand 26.5 25.8 26.3 25.8 Western Samoa 38.0 39.0 39.3 33.2 a=1954-56, b=1941-51, c=1951-61, d=1963-64 (NSS), e=1962, £=1950, g=1960, h=1961, i=1946-61, j=1947-52, k=1950-55, 1=1946-51, m=1964. Sources: United Nations, Demographic Year Book 1965, New York, 290-298(1966). United Nations, Report of the Asian Population Conference and Selected Papers, New York, 76(1963). Table 2: Gross reproduction rates in selected countries 265 in the ECAFE region. Gross reproduction rate Country Burma 2,6(1948-54) Cambodia 2 Ceylon 3.5(1945=47 China: Taiwan 3,0 1950) Hong Kong 2.3(1956 India 2,7(1951=60) Indonesia 2.8(1951-56) Iran 3. 1(1946=51) Japan 2.3(1947) Malaya 3.1 (1958-59; - Pakistan 3. 3(1946-61) Philippines 221 19004774 Ryukyu Is. 2.8(1950) Singapore 3,2(1946-49) Thailand 3,2(1950-55) Austzalia 1.3(1945) New Zealand 1.4(1945) (1952459) as 9 5 oT e5(1962 NON 1.0(1963) 21911960) 3.4(1962) 3.541008) 2,7(1961 1.5(1964) 1.8(1964 Source: United Nations, Demographic Year Book 1965, New York, 610-617(1966). -Table 3: Age specific birth rates per 1000 females and total fertility rates in selected countries in the ECAFE region. Age group Country Year —-----=-----000 NTM TS ee mem TFR 10-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 Ceylon 1955 30.2 260.1 304.5 204.9 148,8 32.3 6.6 5.1 1962 2563 232.1 265.2 216.9 155.4 37.2 6.2 4.8 Taiwan 1964 14.4 253.8 334.4 214.1 119.8 51.9 8.2 5.0 India 1958-59 63.3 263.6 244.3 188.3 127.9 49,6 17.6 5.1 Japan 1955 2.8 111.5 180.6 112.1 49.4 12.6 0.8 2.4 1963 1.8 98.1 191.0 80.8 18.7 3.5 0.2 2.0 Philippines 1956 18.1 159.2 188.4 154.6 91.4 38.0 9.3 3.4 1963 25.2 184.6 178.2 173.5 122.5 47.3 9.4 3.8 Ryukyu Is. 1955 5.3 120.9 211.9 209.0 152.1 71.7 12.1 3.9 1960 4,0 115,0 190.9 159.6 109.7 42.1 5.1 3.2 1960 18.3 200.6 243,0 213.5 178.8 88.8 24,6 4.9 Australia 1955 18.9 204.9 198.9 122.8 63.9 20.4 1.4 3.2 1964 22.5 189.9 197.9 118.4 58. 4 16.5 1.2 3.1 New Zealand 1955 15.3 225.8 238.3 149.7 76.4 22.1 1.8 3.7 1964 85.2 230.0 135.0 68,8 21.4 1.5 3.6 Government of India, Fertility and Mortality Rates in Rural India, National Sample Survey Report 76 (14th round: 1958-59), 12(1963). 98€ 287 Table 4: Mean age at merriage for females in selected countries in the ECAFE region®. Country About 1955 About 1960 Brunei - 19.8 Ceylon 21.2 - China: Taiwan 21.2 — Hong Kong - 21.8 India 15.5 16.1 Japan 24.7 25.1 Korea: Republic of 20.5 21.3 Malaya 19.4 - Pakistan = 16,0 Philippines - 22.5 Ryukyu Is. 23.5 25.0 Singapore 20.3 - Thaidand - 22.1 New Zealand - 20.4 20,2 Western Samoa 22.1 21.7 2 The mean age at marriage was calculated follow- ing a method developed by Hajnal, See Hajnal, J. "Age at marriage and proportions marrying", Population Studies, VII, 1 TI-113019533. Source: United Nations, Demographic Year Book, 1962 and 1963, New York, Table 5: Indexes of development for selected countries in the ECAFE region*, Radio receivers Energy:Consumption Inhabitants per 1000 popn. per capita per physician (1000 kwh) 1961 1964 1961 1964 1960 1963 Brunei 2 2 1.5 1.3 - 7300 Burma 5 1 0.4 0.5 15300 9300 Ceylon 38 38 4.2 4.7 4600 4600 China: Taiwan 70 . 92 ne - 1600 2400 India 5 9 1.2 1.3 5700 5800 Indonesia - - 0.7 0.5 49000 41000 Iran 65 70 2.7 3.0 — - Japan 107 203 10.2 13.1 940 920 Korea, Rep. of, 46 63 2.3 3.2 3900 3000 Malaya - 45 2.0 2.7 - 6500 Pakistan 3 5 0. 5 0 oT 8800 7000 Philippines 21 39 1.2 1.6 7200 1700 Singapore - 214 5.0 Te - 2300 Thailand T - 0.5 0.8 8000 7600 Australia 215 207 31.5 35.1 870 730 New Zealand 243 247 15.9 17,0 710 670 % The figures for some countries do not exactly correspond to the years indicated. Source: United Nations, Statistical Year Book, 1962 and 1965, New York. 987 289 A METHOD OF ANALYSIS FOR CONTEMPORARY BIRTH-INTERVAL DATA by Dr, D, Wolfers, Visiting Senior Lecturer (Colombo Plan), Department of Social Medicine and Public Health, University of Singapore. 1, Introduction, This paper is written with the intention of evolving and testing a method of analysis of birth-intervals suitable for - contemporary data, and of comparing the intervals experienced by the three dominant ethnic groups in Singapore with the assumptions usually granted with respect to birth-intervals, 2, The Data, a. The materials of this study comprise information regarding length of last birth-interval from 13,335 women, These were all the women amongst some 27,000 consecutively confined and interviewed at the Kandang Kerbau Hospital between December 1965 and mid-July 1966 who belonged to the Chinese, the Malay, or the Indian/Pekistani ethnic groups, were of para 2 or greater, had produced viable infants at the current confinement, were able to provide ~ information as to age and length of last birth-interval, and who denied ever have used contraception, The information was collected in the course of a postepartum contraception study under the direction of a committee led by Professor Tow Siang Hwa, with whose kind permission this paper îs given, It is intended to use these results in later estimations of the birthe preventing effects of the programme, b, About 73% of all Singapore babies are born at the "K,K," Hospital, constituting same 85% of Chinese, 1,8% of Malay, and 59% of Indian/Pakistani births. The women in this study included 9,869 Chinese, 2,425 Malays, and 1,045 Indian/Pakistanis, comprising 49,4%, 73.1% and 65,9% of women inter- viewed in their respective ethnic groups, These differences reflect the higher proportions of primiparas and of contraceptors amongst the Chinese, 0. Information as to age of mother was obtained by single year, and, while space has precluded the inclusion of most of them, tables have been prepared and are available preserving this discrimination where cell nurbers are sufficient to support it, Birth-intervals were recorded in months since last confinement, In accordance with the convention that a birth-interval is alloeated to the age and parity of a woman at the commencement of the interval, in the body of this paper all ages given refer to current stated age + 6 menths = birth-interval, and all gravidities are given as one less than stated, 3, The Method of Analysis, fi a, Although there have been several investigations into the relation between birth-intervals and feoundability in recent years, the concepts of 'mean birtheinterval' and 'mean birtheinterval at age x' remain elusive, 290 The problems arise because some collections of data are in the form of completed histories of a limited number of women, others (like this) in the form of histories of birth-intervals from a limited sample of births. b. W. H. James (1) goes so far as to suggest that such studies cannot be conducted on a representative sample of pregnancies on the grounds that the chance of a woman being included in such a sample is proportional to her pregnancy rank at the end of her reproductive life, This, however, would only be true if a sample of pregnancies were draw from a universe of preg- nancies experienced by a defined group of women who had already completed their reproductive lives - indeed, it would then be true also of that universe. o. In order to clarify our thinking on the subject, we may start with a theoretical model of an unlimited group of women, each reproducing at her own characteristic frequency over an unlimited time; that is, we ignore variations of birth-interval for the same woman between different pairs of parities, and we assume no start or end to the reproductive process, d. Under these circumstances, we can consider two quantities: i, Mean birth-interval (women). This will be the mean of the characteristic birth-intervals of all women, ii, Mean birth~interval (births). This will be the mean of the birth- intervals recorded from women giving birth in any specific pericd (e.g. 1 year) (It will be ths same whatever period is ohosen.). e. It is clear that only a proportion of women will be represented in the mean birth-interval (births), and that the probability of any woman giving birth in any one year wili be inversely proportional to her charao- teristio birth-interval (It will be the reciprocal of her birth-interval in years), This implies that women with a characteristic intervals of, say, ten years will each appear in only ae aut of ten such samples of one year's births, while all women with a characteristio interval of 1 year will appear in all af them, To put this in a more useful form, the appearance of one birth- interval of ten years in a one-year sample of births will indicate the existence of ten women with this characteristic birth-interval, f. This leads us directly to two identities between birth-intervals (women) and birth-intervals (births). i. The harmonic mec: of birth-intervals (women) is the arithmetic mean of birth-intervals (births), ii. The arithmetic mean of birth-intervals (women) is the augmented mear* of birth-intervals (births). * Where augriented mean is the term we give to a mean calculated by multiplying each frequency of a quantity by the quantity itself, The formula is: y? = (1) W.H, James, Estimates of Fooundabilit , Population Studies, 17, p.57, (1963). 291 It forms part of a natural mathematical sequence following harmonio mean: LA and arithmetic mean: LA - 3 = B. Thus, with this theoretical model, it is possible to calculate both harmonic and arithmetic mean birth-intervals for all women from a time- limited sample of birth-intervals, taken as they appear, The value of the harmonic mean interval (women) is that it represents the reciprocal of the general fertility rate of the women involved, h. Where we are concerned with ohanges in birtheinterval with age of mother, and therefore wish to obtain mean birth-interval for all women aged x, we must introduce into the model the idea of variation of each woman's characteristic birth-interval with age, This can be done without doing away with the device of assuming a characteristic interval for each woman by considering a woman's characteristic interval to be of the form a + uf (x), where a and b are constants peculiar to the individual woman, For such a study of age(x)-specifio mean birth-intervals, it is not theoretically possible to assemble a representative sample of all women for direct study of arithmetic mean birth-interval (women), No matter whether we take x as a single year of age or a five or ten year age group, we are restrioted to a representative sample of births, That is, whether we are studying intervals commencing or terminating at age x, we are restricted to women who have given birth at age x, and this applies equally to studies of completed histories and to studies of births in a particular period. To illustrate this situation, we may look at a study which provides tables of mean birth-intervals for women aged x. In his study of the Reproductive Span among Hutterites, Tietze (2) includes a table,part of which is reproduced below: "Table 5 Number of Intervals Between Confinements .., and Mean Duration sf Interval by Age of Mother at Onset of Interval (132 Couples) Age at Onset Number of Intervals Mean Duration (Mo,) - 25 297 23.1 25.= 29 308 25,0 30 - 34 285 25.8 35 - — 282 27,6 * It can be seen that with 297 intervals from 132 couples in one age- group, some women have been included more than once, some onoe, and probably some not at all. The calculated means, insofar as they relate to women, are therefore the harmonic mean birth-intervals and not the arithmetic ones, i. It is of course desirable to be able to calculate a mean which is based on the representation of each woman in the risk population once only, or in default of this, of all women equally. (2) Cc. Tietze, Reproductive Span Hutterite Wi Fertility & Sterility, ‘ 8, p.95, 01937) 292 In the theoretical model, this is achieved with fairly close appro- imation by taking the augmented mean of all birth-intervals commencing with women at age x as standing for the arithmetic mean characteristic birth- interval of all women aged x, This will only be approximate because the probability of a woman appearing in the sample (ie, giving birth at age x) depends on her characteristic birth-interval at one lower parity - and hence at a younger age. If, as all published evidence leads us to believe (but see infra), birth-intervals tend to increase with age of mother, this will lead to a small over-estimate of mean age-specific birth-interval (women). If we have a large enough sample for study, the fact that 'charac- teristic birth-interval! represents a probability only will disturb the caloulations only to the extent of introducing some sampling error. Admit- tedly, too, the evidence that any woman has a constant characteristic fecundability (modified by age) is slender, but the absence of this does not invalidate the above procedures when applied to a statistical mass. J There is one important limitation in real life which does not appear in this model, This is the non-realisation of potential long intervals in older women, There is no doubt that the probability of the intervention of permanent sterility increases sharply with age in the older age-groups, so that older women with relatively low fecundability are prone to become sterile before their next conception occurs. This effect will tend to give the appearance of a shortening of average birth intervals with increasing age. Likewise, there is a higher probability that any one long interval (which raises the age of a woman more than does a short interval) will be the last interval for a woman than any one short intervel, This may be at least part of the explanation of the phenomenon reported by Tietze (3), and repeated by Henry (1) and Talawar (5), that the last birth interval tends to be the longest. k. With these considerations in mind, augmented and arithmetic mean intervals have been caloulated for all ages and gravidities for the Chinese women, and for age and gravidity groupings for the other races where the numbers do not support such fine discrimination. 1. The first problem which was met in the analysis was the very great weight given to extreme intervals in the caloulation of the augmented means, These extreme intervals (which we define arbitrarily as 6 years or longer) constitute some 4.2% of all intervals and, not unnaturally tend to appear in feirly capricious order, predominantly amongst the lower age-groups. To meet this, means have been calculated separately including and excluding intervals of 6 years and more, Trends within ages for gravidities and within age-groups for single years of age emerge much more clearly when extreme intervals are excluded, (3) C. Tietze, op. cit., p. 95. (4) L. Henry, La Pecondite Naturelle, Population (Paris) 16, p.627, (1961). (5) P. P. Talawar, Note on the Test of Significance of Intervals Between Confinements of Different Birth-Orders, Eugenics Quarterly, 12, p, 251, (1965). 293 L, Results of the Analysis. a. Introduction: The effect of using the augmented mean. The augmented means, which estimate the arithmetic mean birth- intervals (women), will, of course, always be higher than the arithmetic means of birth-intervals (births). Tables 1 and 2 present augmented and arithmetic means in pairs, with and without extreme intervals. The greater the dispersion of the intervals recorded, the higher becomes the ratio of augmented to arithmetic means, Hence the inclusion of extreme intervals increases this ratio, The augmented means with extremes are, surprisingly, above 3 years for all ethnic groups. ‘be The influence of age on birth-intervals. i. It is widely accepted that birth-intervals tend progressively to increase with the age of the mother. L. Henry (6) estimates an increase of 6.5 months from ages 20-24 (24.3 mo.) to 35-39 (30.8 mo.), but these are deduced rather than observed values, and both they and the table of Hutterite intervals cited above are arithmetic for births (harmonic for women) and as can be seen from Table 2, these may exaggerate, minimise, or even reverse trends amongst women as a group, ii. Tables 1 and 2 show the variations of birth-intervals with age in five-year groups for the three ethnic groups in Singapore in this study. The arithmetic mean intervals (without extremes) conform fairly closely in general range to those of the Hutterite women (general mean 25.5 months), so that while this does not purpert to be a study of natural fecundity, we have reason to believe that the behaviour of those women not experiencing extreme intervals epproximates to it. iii, As the arithmetic means are little help in uncovering tendencies for reproductive performance to change with age, we would therefore direct attention to the augmented means, and as the longer intervals are selective- ly eliminated in older women, producing effects related to sterility only, to the augmented means without extreme intervals, From these, Table 3, we find a well-marked pattern of increasing intervals to ages 31-33 amongst both Chinese and Indian women, followed by equally clear decrease with age thereafter, The Malays who, for sociological reasons might be assumed to conform most closely to a pattern of natural reproductive behaviour, exhibit no perceptible change in birth-interval with age, until a decline starts in the late thirties, There is some evidence from all groups that birth-intervels tend to be relatively long in extreme youth, Figure 1 summarises graphically the relation between age and birth-interval, (6) L. Henry, op. cit., pp. 630-1. 294 c> The influence of gravidity on birth-intervals. i, P. P. Talawar (7) has written, "It is a known fact that there exists a positive association in the intervals between different confine- ments for the same woman, If a woman reproduces her one birth order in a short interval, she is likely to take a shorter time for other intervals." and this observation was preceded by the studies of Henry (8) and Dandekar (9) on Crulai women from which this same deduction was made. ii, If this association is real, we may expect to find some evidence of it in the following form - that for women of a common age those with the highest parities would exhibit the shortest intervals, having, by the attainment of high parity of age, given evidence of previous short intervals, Working against this effect will be the influence of age-at-marriage, if we assume marital enthusiasm as expressed in coital frequency to decline with duration of marriage. Such a contrary effect may be expected to disappear by para 2 or 3 at the latest. iii, Tables 4, 5 and 6 explore the influence of gravidity (information on parity is not available in full) on birth-intervals, the augmented means without extremes being used, For Malay and Indian/Pakistani women numbers did not warrant study of individual gravidities, and the following system was used to divide them between high and low. Age… Low — High -19 1 2+ 20- 1&2 3+ 25- JEN > 30- 1-5 6+ 35- 1-6 7+ iv. There is a very clear pattern up to age 2, for Malays, age 27 for Chinese, and throughout the age range for Indian/Pakistanis, That is, the higher the gravidity the longer the birth-interval, with a particularly large Jump from interval 1-2 to 2-3, This pattern is wholly reversed for Chinese aged 30-31, and for Malays aged 25 and over. Malays marry in Singapore on the average some three years younger than Chinese, so that the difference in the age of reversal of this trend suggests that it is indeed related to marital enthusiasm in the first years of married life, We can, however, only speculate whether this is the cause, or some biological phenomenon, or a conscious attempt - short of actual contraception - to delay births, or a sort of Mother Hubbard syndrome, in which the presence of a large family for a young woman, irrespective of duration of marriage, results in lower coital fre- quency due to over-crowding, loss of attractiveness, distraction and exhaustion, à. The significance of the extreme intervals. i. Extreme intervals (defined as 6 years or longer) are unexpectedly common in this series, They constitute JL. 3% of Chinese, 3,05% of Malay, and 4.4% of Indian/Pakistani intervals, and probably about three times these proportions of women at risk, This abundance discounts the possibi- lity of their representing the tail-end of a probability distribution. The b of them certainly represent the behaviour of a roi of the population different in kind from the majority, (7) P. P. Talawar, op. cit., Pe 251, Te e an ae mos (8) L. Henry, Intervals between Confinements in the Absence of Birth Control, Eugenics Quarterly, 5, p. 206, (1958). (9) K. Dandekar, Intervals between Confinements, Eugenics Quarterly, 6, pp.180-6, (1959. MONTHS INTERVAL LOF A. x. _ _- *. ~ . 5 295 ii, A number of possible explanations have been explored, Table 7 summarises the past abortion experience admitted by women with normal and extreme intervals, It supports the view that a small proportion of extreme intervals are determined by the intervention of an abortion, . iii, Table 8 gives the results of enquiry into the marital status of respondents, The intervention of a period of celibacy in the case of re- married women may be responsible for some of the extreme intervals, especially amongst the Malays. Unexpected is the significantly higher proportion of Chinese women with extreme intervals who describe their marriages as 'arranged'!, We have no information whatever to tell us whether marriages of choice or marriages of arrangement are the more harmonious, but this observation leads to the suspicion that there are some subtle, possibly psychological causes for long delays in conception, Other factors which may contribute are separation of husband and wife, and pathological subfertility or reversible infertility. Fig. 1. AGE-SPECIFIC MEAN BIRTH-INTERVALS, CHINESE, MALAY, INDIAN WOMEN. 50 eos ; Augmented Means with Extreme Augmented Means without Extreme ll Sir Intervalo => usa: sa —— 30} A 207” 10 | L J A + , À 4 1 Arithmetic Means with Extreme Arithmetic Means without Extreme Intervals - Intervals 301 20 10 ! L A 1 L ool a bc aq EP 0 20 25 30 35 40 45 20 25 30 35 40 45 AGE IN YEARS CHINESE MALAY — - ——— 296 Table 1 Augmented and Arithmetic Mean Birth-intervals, (Extreme intervals excluded) by Age-group and Ethnic Group TT CHINESE | MALAY O INDIAN/PAR. — | AE Pe. E. Ar. M. | Ag, M. Ar. M. | Ag. E, Ar. M. -19 26.87 22.75 30.71 24.26 30,86 2), ,0 20-21, 29.43 23,92 31,28 25.63 32.72 26.19 25-29 30.69 25,22 31,19 26.19 33,28 26,11 30-31, 35.33 28,69 31,32 26.47 31.78 28,21 35-39 33.89 28,24; 30,95 26,07 29.11 25,93 40+ 34.02 29.33 26.37 23.35 | 19.11 17.50 Table 2 Augmented and Arithmetic Mean Birth-Intervals, (Extreme intervals included) by Age-group and Ethnic Group CHINESE | MALAY OO O MDIAN/PAR. O si Me ar NL | Ag. M. Ar, EE Ea t — } = - — | -19 blu 25,73 | 39.07 26.91 | 38,05 26.90 | 20-24 | 40,27 26,59 | 14,86 29.16 | 40,68 28.57 | 25-29 | 41.90 28.44 39.45 28.47 } 41,30 29.29 | 30-34 | 45,04 32.18 | 35.64 27.82 | 141,52 30.68 35-39 | 42,71 31.13 ! 30,95 26.07 | 35.07 27.93 | 404, | 35.80 30.12 32.46 25.67 | 19.11 17.50 297 Table 3 Age-specific Augmented lean Birth-intervals by Single Year of Age and Ethnic Group AUGMENTED MEAN BIRTH-INTERVALS (without extremes) AGE Chinese Malay Indian/Pakistani -16 31.91 37.75 34.98 17 25.93 31,00 29.42 18 26,02 27.76 30,10 19 26.50 30,44 30,07 20 29.92 32.45 34.12 21 30.49 30.39 30.97 22 29.57 33.54 35.28 23 29.48 30.57 31.2 2), 28.44 29.88 31,52 25 30,03 31.38 35.93 26 29.91 32.79 31.48 27 30.82 32.2% 34.04 28 30,94 29.45 33.40 29 32.30 30.09 27.36 30 33.90 31.65 31.79 31 35.39 30.56 39.73 32 36.08 33,78 38,16 33 36,30 31.74 32.53 34 35,13 28,87 28,10 35 34.33 31,16 26.80 36 33,00 31.75 29,91, 37 35,85 33.66 29.00 38 32.82 20.96 26.2, 39 - 32.06 28.07 36,00 41 35.13 18.93 42 31,96 28,09 43 40.84 33.54 4 35.67 23,28 298 Table 4 The Effect of Gravidity on Birth-Interval, Chinese Women Augmented Mean Birth-Intervals (without extremes) by Age & Gravidity AGE GRAVIDITY GROUP 1 2 3 4 «5 6 7. 8 + -19 24.54 29.63 20-24. 25.80 30.88 30,25 32.51 36,22 25-29 27.93 29,16 30.41 32,07 34.89 33.29 30-34 40.77 39.70 38.95 36,06 34.36 34.29 36,98 31.25 35-39 33.88 33,16 38,50 37.09 35.59 34.36 32,34 31,78 20-14, 33.12 Table 5 The Effect of Gravidity on Birth-Interval, Malay Women Augmented Mean Birth-Intervals (without extremes) by Age & Gravidity AGE GRAVIDITY GROUP Low High -19 26,81 31,06 20-2), 28,94, 32,26 25-29 32.56 30.55 30-34 31.84 31,19 35-35 33.20 31.50 Table 6 The Effect of Gravidity on Birth-Interval, Indian/Pakistani Women Augmented Mean Birth-Intervals (without extremes), by Age & Gravidity. AGE GRAVIDITY GROUP Low High -19 28,82 33.25 20-21, 30,73 34.40 25-29 29,83 35.51 30-34 32,48 36.10 299 Table 7 Significance of Extreme Intervals Abortion Experience Reported, by Ethnic Group & Length of Interval NUMBER OF CHINESE MALAY ____ IND/PAK. ABORTIONS | Normal Extreme | Normal Extreme | Normal Extreme i 85.74% 75.30% | 83.25% 78.08% | 81.86% 67.3% 11,08% 16,55% | 12.55% 15.07% | 13.93% 13,04% 2.32% 5.5% | 2.94% 2.74% | 4,00% 13,04% 0,59% 2.16%: 1.11% 1.37% | 5.01% 6.5% 0.25% 0.487 | 0.26% 2.74% y 1.00% 0.00% t funmro 20m ——~ Table 8 The Significance of Extreme Intervals Marital Status by Ethnic Group and Length of Interval MARITAL CHINESE MALAY IND./PAK. L STATUS Normal Extreme | Normal Extreme { Normal Extreme | Single 0.04% - - - - - \ Marriage > i of Choige | 42226 * 34.53% | 24.47% * 14.86% } 17.77% 21.74% Widowed 0.05% - - - 0.30% 2.17% Divorced - - - - - - PO annioa | 0.38% 1.20% | 6.81% 14,86% | 0.9% 2.17% ene 56.39% * 61.67% |66.8% 67.57% 80.02% 73.91% o el 0.85% * 2.16 | 1,74% 2.70% 0,80% - lea * Difference significant, P < 0,05 300 FERTILITY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES. by Dr C. H. 5. Jayewardene Lecturer, University of Ceylon and Mrs E. C. Ternando Hon. General Secretary, Family Planning Assn. 1. The term "developing country" used to describe the newly emergent nations carries with it a connotation that these countries are in a stage of transition from a purely agricultural country to an industrialised one and that this transition is a smooth, though slow, but nevertheless sure march from poverty to affluence. During colonial times, the economic structure of most developing countries was what has been described as an "export economy" where raw material was produced for export to the industrialising countries of the Test and consumer goods, which soemtimes included food too, were imported. The economy revolved round the growth of commercial crops - plantation agriculture - an activity which depended upon the availability of cheap land and cheap labour, the demand for the raw materials and the willingness of foreign entrepreneurs to invest. In most countries, plantation agriculture really resulted in the production of a dual economy ~ the one a modern sector benefitting mainly foreign interests and a small segment of the local population who were Testern oriented in their ways and their thought and the other the traditional sector centred in peasant agriculture and affecting a large proportion of the population who were tradition oriented. . 2. In recent times, the diminishing demand for raw material by the industrialised countries caused by an increase in the sources of supply and by technological changes, the gradual exhaustion of cheap land and the disappearance of cheap labour have made foreign entrepreneurs reluctant to invest anew or even to plow back part of the profits into an industry that was giving low returns and was likely to yield even lower returns in the future. In addition the disjuncture in the balance of payments caused by an increase in the import of consumer goods including food, consequent to the rapid increase in population, without a concomitant increase in export earnings made it amply clear that the economic structure should be changed from one producing commercial crops for the foreign market to ome cultivating food and manufacturing consumer goods for the home market if disaster 301 was to be averted. The change in the economic structure is underway, but its basic dual characteristic still exists and the population finds itself divided into two groups - the one economically depressed, tradition oriented and possessing political power by virtue of sheer numbers and the other affluent, Western oriented and possessing economic power because of their wealth. (1). 3. Apart from this division of the population into the large, poor, traditional oriented segment contributing overwhelmingly to the growth of the country's population and the small, affluent, Vestern oriented segment displaying some degree of fertility control, developing countries possess other characteristics which affect fertility. I'irst, in recent times there has occured in almost all these countries a phenomenal improvement in the health services and a phenomenal decrease in the death rate. The end result of these changes is that even with a falling birth rate and a declining fertility as evinced by a decrease in the size of completed family, population growth remains unrelentingly high because of an increase in the replacement of reproducing women, (2), In Ceylon we find that the average number of children ever born per woman at the end of the 1st quarter of this century was 6 and at the end of the 2nd quarter 5,(3), At the end of the 1st quarter 49.1. of all children born were females while at the end of the 2nd quarter the comparative figure was 49.2% (4). Again at the end of the 1st quarter 607 of the females survived till the reproductive period while at the end of the 2nd quarter 80% did so (5). And again at the end of the 1st quarter 58% of the females in the reproductive age group made their biological capacity to reproduce a social probability through marriage while at the end of the 2nd quarter 65% did so (6). “when the size of the completed family was 6, at the end of the 1st quarter of this century, every reproducing woman was replaced by 1.02 reproducing women, while at the end of the 2nd querter, every reproducing woman was replaced by 1.15 reproducing women even though the size of completed family had decreased. 4. The second characteristic which plays an important part in fertility is the upsurge of education. In Ceylon, this upsurge has received an added impetus from a scheme of free education from the “indergarten to the University (inclusive) (7). supported by traditional values which placed a high premium on education and aided by an unostensible shattering of social barriers which tended to keep the woman inside the home, in and around the years of the 2nd world war, there was a rage for education which has resulted in 44, of those vith a primary education, 43, of those vith a secondary education and 377. of those with an University education, being women (8). Education affects fertility in a number of ways. The process of education keeps girls longer in school, imbibing the education that is imparted to them, and tempts them to exploit the education that they have received, 302 through employment, so that marriage is delayed, the effective reproductive period is reduced and the number of children ultimately borne by them is decreased. The average age at marriage was 20.5 in the 1st decade of this century. In 1960, it had increased to 23.1 . There is consequently a reduction of over 2 years in the effective reproductive period. However, because a larger proportion of the women marrying live to complete their reproductive period, the average effective reproductive period hes increased from 20.3 years in the 1st decade of this century to 21.4 years in the 6th, but this change has been wrogzht by addition to the latter end of the reproductive period and subtraction from the earlier. vata obtained in a recent survey on fertility (9), indicates that the size of completed family decreases with the age at marriage. Thus for women completing fertility, one who married while in the age group 20 - 24 years bore an average of 4.15 children while one who married in the age group 10 - 14 years bore an average of 5.80 children. The age specific birth rates according to the age at marriage (Table 1) shows that reproductive activity is maximal in the decade following marriage and that while reproductive activity does occur in later years, it is greatly reduced. The reduction in fertility due to postponement of marriage is less than that expected by the reduction in the effective reproductive period. The reduction in the c¢ffective reproductive period caused by the postponement of marriage, though occuring in the earlier years in the chronological history of women is equivalent to & reduction in the later years in her reproductive history. 5. Education, the end product, influences fertility by acting as a stimulant of social mobility aspirations, as a social mobility ckannel and as à stimulant for consumer aspirations. In short, it acts as a stimulant for the social revolution of rising expectations. It also influences fertility by bridging the intellectual gap between husband and wife and thereby corvertiny tlie condition of ignorant minds into means capable of using contraceptives effectively on the one hand and the condition of pleuralistic ignorance into means of sharing ends on the other (10) The Ceylon data (Table 2) indicates that fertility is lowest in the University educated grouns. With recards the other groups however, fertility is airectly pronortional to education. The average age at marriage is lower for the lover educational groups but pregnancy rates, due perhaps to the phenomenon already noted with regards age at marriage, tends to be higher for the higher educational groups. As far as the difference in the educational status of husband and wife is concerned, fertility is lowest in those families where the educational status of husband and wife are the same. then the educational status of the husband is lower than thet of the wife, fertility tends to be high. €. Apart from the influence thet the employment of women exert on fertility through postponement of marriage, it has been 303 hypothesised that the employment of women influences fertility through fertility control stemming from a desire for smaller families and a desire to avoid the deleterious effects of repeated pregnancies on their work. Studies in other countries indicate that fertility is greatly reduced when women work in non-familial enterprises outside the home (11). In Ceylon, however, the pregnancy rates which are a measure of the use of contraceptives, do not indicate a greater use of contraceptives by those who are employed nor is there a marked difference in their fertility. (12) Employed women fall into 2 categories. There is on the one hand the woman who obtains employment early in life and who is likely to be irked by the fruitions of marriage. There is on the other hand the woman who obtains employment late in life in an attempt to relieve the economic burdens caused by the fruitions of marriage. It is the 1st group of women rather than the 2nd which is likely to take to family planning. At the census of 1953 it was found that the nroportion of women in the different age groups emplpye€d increased from 22.7% in the age group 15 - 19 years old to 35.7% in the age group 45 - 54 years old suggesting that a little over a third of our working women enter the labour market after marriage. There is one point that is significant here. In a study that is now being conducted (13) it is being found that only 10% of the women patronising family planning clinics are employed outside the home. While the majority of the women patronising these clinics do so in order to limit the size of their families, the majority of the young employed women do so to space their families. When family limitation and not spacing is their objective, the attempt to limit the the family is made earlier in the case of the employed women than in the case of the unemployed women and here earlier is in terms both of age and parity. - - 6. When the economy is changing there is naturally a redistribution of the population both socially and geographically. Internal migration plays a very small part in the social dynamics of Ceylon. At the census of 1946 only 17.40% of the population was not resident at the place of birth, This figure had increased to 18.10% at the census of 1955. Scarcely 20% of the population has been involved in internal migration, The pattern of migration during the period 1946 - 1953 differed from that occuring prior to 1946. Both prior to 1946 and during the period 1946 - 1953, the Jistrict of Colombo, which is and has been the most industrialised district, attracted most migrants. Again both prior to 1946 and during the period 1946 - 1953 migration from the more densely populated south west section of the country was greater than that from the more sparcely populated north east section. In the period 1946 - 1953 migration was mainly into the more sparcely populated areas in the north east section of the country, 304 released for human habitation by the control of malaria and opened up for colonisation schemes. In the period prior to 1946 migration was into districts where the estate plantations were. Migration into these districts was neglegible in the period 1946 - 1953. Prior to 1946 most of the migratory moves were short distance ones - into adjoining districts - and usually with one migratory stream being matched with a counter migratory stream. During the period 1946 - 1953 the bulk of the moves were long distance ones without the matching counter migratory streams. Again prior to 1946 a little over 1/4th of all migrants came from urban areas while a little less than 1/2 of the migrants went into urban areas. The rural - urban strean constituted 35.60% of the total shift. During the period 1946 - 1953 outmigration from urban areas remained more or less the same, in-migration into urban areas increased and the rural - urban stream also increased to constitute 39,97% of the total shift. Prior to 1946 migration was more inter-regional and inter-district than rural-urban. The picture was only slightly different in the period 1946 - 1953 indicating that the process of ruralisation continues though to a lesser degree (14). 7. Birth rates for urban areas in Ceylon is usually higher than that for rural areas, but this is due to the fact that rural mothers deliver in urban hospitals and increase the number of births in urban areas. There is, however, a negative correlation (-0.32) between the crude birth rate in a district and the size of its urban population and a positive oorrelation (+0.18) between the crude birth rate and the size of the rural population, indicating the presence of a rural - urtan differential, 305 ETI TIO SEFERENCES, (1). (2). > vu oN rte meme . Donald. R. Snodgrass. Cevlon. An Export Economy in Transition. Richard. D. Irwin Inc. Homewood. (1966) 2. B. R. Abhayaratne and C. H. 5. Jayewardene. iertility Trends in Ceylon. Ceylon Journal of Historical and social Studies. VII 99 - 111.(1964) ibid, Annual Administration Report of the Reristrar General of Ceylon on Vital jtatistics for 1960. Government Printer. Colombo. (1964) Statistical Abstract of Ceylon. 1960. Government Printer. Colombo. (1960) H. E. Pieris, Census of Ceylon, 1953. Government Printer, Colombo. (1957) Introduced in 1945. I. Kannangara, Vomen's Employment in Ceylon. International Labour Review. XCIII 117 - 126. (1966) O. E. R. Abhazaratne and C. I. J. Jayewardene. Fertility in Ceylon. Colombo Apothecaries Co Ltd. (1967). In Press. 7. de. Idenburs. Demorraphie Aspects of Tducational Development World Population Conference, Belgrade 30 August - 10 september 1965. I 206 - 218. United Nations. New York. (1966) A. Myrdal and Y. Klein. Women's Two Roles. London. (1956) ie J. Jaffe and à. /zumi. The Birth Rate and Cottace Industries in Underdeveloped Countries. Economic Jevelopment and Culture Change. I: 52 - 60 (1969) R. X. Nelsall and 5. Mitchell. Married Women and Employment in Encland and Tales. Population Studies XIII 15 - 33 (1959) Je D EZ. Abhayccatne and C. HN. 3. Jayewardene. Fertility in Ceylon. oD cit. Co 4. 1. ÁADbhayaratne and C. H. 5. Jayewardene. ramily Zlannin_ in “eylon ( In Freparation ) :. E, R,. bhayaratne and C. H. 3. dayevardene. Internal kisration in Ceylon, Ceylon Journal of listorical and social Studies. VIII 68 - 90 (1965) 306 Table 1. Age Specific Birth Rates According to Age at Marriage. Age of AGE AT MARRIAGE Mother 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 10-14 0.09 15-19 0.37 - 0.20 20-24 0.35 0.33 0.25 25-29 0.18 0.24 0.27 0.25 30-34 0.11 0.14 0.18 0.30 0.20 35-39 0.05 0.06 0.09 0.15 0.20 0.16 40-44 0.05 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.07 0.15 0.20 45-49 0.00 - 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.10 0.20 Source. 0. E. R. Abhayaratne and C. I. S. Jayewardene. Fertility in Ceylon. Colombo «pothecaries Co Ltd. Colombo (1967) In Press. 307 Table 2, Pregnancy Rates per 1C0 Woman Years of Elapsed Time Average Age at Marriage and Computed Size of Completed Family by Educational Status of llusband and Nife, Pregnancy - Average Age Computed Size Rate at Marriace of Completed Family Husband's Educational Status University 25.31 24,04 3.1 Secondary 37.62 21.34 5.7 Primary 34.74 19.21 6.0 Literate 31.06 18.49 5.6 Illiterate 27.57 17.79 5.2 Wife's Educational status University 28.34 27.72 2.5 Secondary 45.34 22.47 6.3 Primary 36.86 19.42 6.5 Literate 32.54 18.57 5.8 Illiterate 28.43 18.32 5.2 Difference in Educational ¿tatus Husband's status higher 32.04 18.87 5.6 Husband's Status same 31.83 19.47 5.4 Husband's Status lower 40.67 18.82 7.1 Source. 0. E. R. sbhayaratne and C. H. J. Jayewaruene., Tertility in Ceylon. Colombo «“pothecaries Co Ltd. Colombo. (1967) In Press. 308 Table 3. Crude Birth Rate and Proportion of Urban, Rural and Estate Population in the Different Districts in Ceylon District Urban Rural Estate Crude Pirth Population Rate Ceylon 15.3 72.2 12.5 39.4 Colombo 41.5 57.8 0.7 37.8 Kalutara 11.1 80.4 8.5 35.5 Kandy 10.8 56,2 33.0 39.1 Matale 8.6 69.1 22.3 43.3 Nuwara Eliya 5.5 31.5 63.0 39.4 Galle 12.7 83.1 4,2 37.2 Matara 9.8 85.6 4,6 43.3 Hambantota 5.8 94.0 0.2 50.2 Jaffna 15.7 84,3 - 24.0 Mannar 99.8 0.2 40.6 Vavuniya = 99.8 0.2 49.0 Batticalao 6.5 93.4 0.1 41.8 Trincomalie 31.4 68.5 0.1 39.4 Kurunegala 3.2 93.7 3.1 43.7 Puttalam 17.4 81.2 1.4 43,0 Chilaw 6.7 90.9 2.3 35.6 Anuradhapure 8.0 90.4 1.6 44.2 Badulla 4.7 37.6 37.7 40.8 Ratnapura 4.5 70.6 24.9 39.8 Kegalle 1.2 83.2 15.7 37.8 Coefficient of Correlation -0.32 +0.18 -9.07 source. Urban, Rural and Estate Population: Census of 1953. Crude Birth Rates: Administration Report of the Registrar General on Vital Statistics for 1953. 309 SOME ASPECTS OF DIFFERENTIAL FERTILITY IN BOMBAY AS ASSESSED FROM REGISTRATION DATA: M.A. El- Population Division, United Nations A, The Sample and the Data 1, In the absence-of census data on parity and of census and registration statistics which would enable the calculation of specific birth rates by socio-economic characteristics, it is very tempting to investigate the possibility of utilizing the information on "mother's parity® and mother's age available on the birth registration report to assess differential fertility among those population strata which can be distinguished by means of the rest of the information included in the report. 2, The question then arises, of course, as to how accurate the parity data are, As regards completeness of coverage, a high degree of completeness is automatically guaranteed in Bombay by the very large frequency of hospital births in the city; sizable under-registration exists only in the suburban areas of Greater Bombay where home births are relatively more frequent,l/ Actually it has been estimated in 1963 that 87 per cent of the births in Greater Bombay take place in hospitals and 13 per cent in homes, and that while 86 per cent of hospital births are registered the corresponding percen- tage is only 46 in the case of home deliveries.2/ These figures imply a *This is a summary report. The complete report will be published later. mis work was undertaken while the author was on the staff of the Demographic Training and Research Centre, Bombay, The views expressed in this paper are his own and not necessarily those of the United Nations, 1/ In a sample of approximately 50 per cent of all births registered in 1960, which will be described later in the present report, it was found that only eight per cent of the births in Greater Bombay were home births, However, home births are considerably more frequent in the parts of Greater Bombay located outside the city proper; it was thus found that 15 per cent of the sample births in these parts occurred in the homes as compared to only four per cent in the city proper. 2/ Demographic Training and Research Centre, Bombay, Newsletter, Issue No. 20, August 1966, p.l. The figures are attributed to Mr. Ranganathan, Assistant Director for Vital Statistics, Government of Maharashtra. 310 degree of campleteness of registration above 80 per cent. It is also to be noted that, apart from the effect of sampling error, differences in complete- ness of registration among the strata under comparison will only have a limited influence on comparison between age-specific average parities. 3. Regarding the accuracy of entries on parity, it has been shown that of the two figures on "order of pregnancy® and “order of live birth" entered on the birth report, the former was considerably nearer to the corresponding figure derived from the pregnancy history of the mother.3/ In fact it was found that, though the order of live birth is not exposed to errors of omission of miscarriages and stillbirths, the percentage of — mothers whose registration reports tallied with those obtained during their interview was 78 in the case of order of pregnancy and 65 in the case of order of live birth, Moreover, the registration figure on order of pregnancy had a mean deviation from the corresponding interview figure equal to 0,35 of a pregnancy per mother, as against 0.50 of a live birth in the case of the registration reports./ ke Fertility studies based on parity data are not exposed to the well- known errors arising from comparing registration and census data, but there is still the question concerning the possible existence of differences in accuracy of the "order of pregnancy” report. It is true that an assessment of differences in accuracy of this report among religious, occupational or educational groups would require a considerably larger sample than the 685 mothers covered in the above-mentioned survey. However, the results of this survey did show the absence of a systematic age pattern of difference in accuracy of reporting parity when comparison was carried out between (a) illiterate mothers and all others, (b) mothers married to workers and those whose husbands had professional occupations, and (c) non-Hindu mothers and those belonging to the Hindu religion, Calculation of standardized differences in accuracy gave a maximum difference of three pregnancies per 100 mothers aged 15-39 when the age distribution of all mothers in Greater Bombay was applied to the differences (a), (b) and (c). Even when the age distribution of mothers in each of the 88 sections of Greater Bombay was applied to each of the differences (a), (b) and -(c) (in order to take into account the effect of differences in age structure), the maximum difference observed became four pregnancies. It is thus perhaps safe, when comparing between standardized average parities of different groups, to allow for a possible effect of difference in accuracy which is of the order of four pregnancies per 100 women aged 15 to 39. El-Badry, M.A., An Evaluation of the Parity Data Collected on Birth Certificates in City, Milbank Memorial d Quarterly, XL, No. 3, 328-355 (July a The comparison was carried out for 685 mothers who were successfully interviewed and questioned about the details of their pregnancy histories. See the study mentioned in footnote 3 for a discussion of the reasons for the larger discrepancy in the case of live births, 311 5. The fertility measure used in this study is the standardized average parity to mothers aged 15-39, Mothers aged 40 and over were excluded due to their very small numbers,5/ To derive the measure for any subgroup, the average parity per mother in each quinquennial age group was calculated, and this set of averages was then applied to an appropriate standard age distribution, The population which this measure represents is that of mothers having a delivery in a certain year and not that of all mothers or all women in the community. As in many developing communities where no substantial fertility decline has been achieved, however, the general pattern of age-specific average parity curves is such that these curves do not intersect at ages above 20 years (in other words, these averages for one subgroup are generally all higher or all lower than their counter- parts in another subgroup). This has been the case among the subgroups included in the present study, as is typically shown i» table 2, The standardized average parity used here will then provide a useful means of ranking, even though it is not a measure of fertility level among all women, 6. For the purposes of the study of fertility differences in Bombay, the figures on order of pregnancy by mother's age and the information bearing on the socio-economic status of the parents were taken from the birth reports of approximately 50 per cent of the births registered in 1960, This sample actually consisted of all the 55,854 birth reports registered on every second day in 1960, excluding holidays, 6/ The information utilized included: ward (district) and section of residence, 7/ religion, father's state of birth and his duration of stay in Bombay, B, Fertility Differences and Socio-Economic Conditions Te In view of the considerable differences in socio-economic conditions that existed among the sections within most of the wards, it is necessary to use the section as the geographical unit, It was still necessary, however, to merge 21 sections into adjacent and generally similar ones in order to avoid errors of small frequencies or of mis-identification. The resulting 67 divisions showed considerable differences in fertility, with the standardized average parity, using the age distribution of all sample mothers in Greater Bombay as standard, ranging from 282 to 390 pregnancies per 100 mothers aged 15-39. There were only 6 divisions, however, in which this average was lower than 310 and another 6 in which the average reached 370 or more, 5/ These mothers amounted to only one per cent of the total sample of mothers, 6/ For the city proper, the number of sample births was 36,715 or exactly 49.6 per cent of the total of 74,000 births reported in 1960, 7/ The City of Bombay is administratively divided into 7 wards, and the suburban areas belonging to Greater Bombay constitute another 8 wards, The 15 wards are subdivided into a total of 88 sections of which 38 are in the city proper. 312 8, In order to study the relationship between parity and socio-economic conditions in the 67 divisions, it was necessary to look for indicators of these conditions in the 1961 census results, Three such indicators were available: over-crowding as measured by the percentage of persons living in one-room accommodations, illiteracy as measured by its incidence in the total population,8/ and religious pattern as measured by the percentage of Muslims and Buddhists.9/ The existence of correlation between parity and each of these three characteristics was only too obvious from a mere subdivision of the 67 divisions into four groups according to the joint level of parity and the characteristic, The subdivision gives the following three distributions: Table 1 Distribution of the 67 Divisions of Greater Bombay According to the Joint Level of Parity and Over-Crowding, Illiteracy, and Religious Pattern, Consecutively. Joint Level? Characteristic and Number of Divisions Over-Crowding Illiteracy Religious Pattern LL 26 20 24, HL 7 13 9 HH 27 21 25 a/ The first letter in this column denotes fertility level and the second denotes the level of each of the characteristics shown in the following three columns, An L means that the level is below the median and an H denotes a level equal to or above the median, The table shows that the percentage of the divisions in which the relative parity level is the same as that of the characteristic (in the sense that when the parity level is above the median the level of the indicator is also above the median and vice versa) is 79 in the case of over-crowding, 61 8/ The census does not give illiteracy for the population above a certain age, 9/ As will be shown later, Muslims and Buddhists have virtually equal levels of parity. 313 in the case of illiteracy and 73 in the case of religion. When data for each division were used to calculate correlation coefficients, the results were: ,66, .1,8 and .47 in the cases of over—crowding, illiteracy and religion, respectively.10/ 9. A regression line u = ax + by + cz, where u, X, y and z are the parity, over-crowding, religion and illiteracy measures, respectively were then fitted to the observations, The following results were obtained: Percentage of Degrees of Cause of variation "accounted for" variance freedom All three factors 51 3 Over-crowding and 49 2 religion Over-crowding and hd, 2 illiteracy Religion and illiteracy 43 2 Over-crowding Lb 1 These results imply that illiteracy is the only factor whose effect is statistically insignificant when the other two factors are known. They indicate, however, that religion and illiteracy cannot both be neglected when over-crowding is known,11/ 10, Thus, despite the multiplicity of factors influencing parity, the complexity of their interrelationships, and the inadequacy of statistical information, it was still possible to derive from the census data three indicators which could numerically account together for 51 per cent of the total variance of the parity averages in the 67 divisions. Among the three indicators, it was found that the over-crowding indicator, which is an indicator of the level of living, had the strongest influence and accounted alone for 44 per cent of the variance. Additional knowledge of the religious pattern in the division raises the percentage to 49, and further inclusion 10/ The coefficient was equal to .41 when the Muslims alone were considered. 11/ Under the null hypothese c = o, b = 0 and a = 0, F = 3,1, 8,5 and 10.9, consecutively, with the number of degrees of freedom being 1 and 63 in each case, The first of these values of F is insignificant at the 5 per cent level, but the remaining two are significant at the 1 per cent level, When the null hypothesis b = ¢ = o was tested, F was equal to 4.8 with 2 and 63 degrees of freedom, This value of F is significant at the 2 per cent level, 314 of the illiteracy measure would only add another two to this percentage of the "accounted for" variance,12/ C. Fertility Differences Between Religious Groups and Localities 11, According to the 1961 census results, 69 per cent of the population of Bombay is Hindu, 13 per cent Muslim and 7 per cent Christian. In addition to these three major religious groups there are the Buddhist, Jain and Parsi communities whose percentages in 1961 were L.6, 3.& and 1.7, respectively, The very small Sikh group amounted to only 0.6 per cent of the total population of the City.13/ 12, The study of parity averages shows that the Parsis have the lowest fertility level in Greater Bombay, and the Muslims have the highest; the standardized average parity per 100 mothers was as low as 196 for the Parsis, compared to 306 among the Christians, 339 among the Hindus and 366 among the Muslims, The differences between these values were found to be very highly significant.14/ As to the other small religious groups, the Jains who had an average of 347 did not show any significant difference from the Hindus, and the parity level of the Buddhists, which was 362, was virtually as high as that of the Muslims, 13, The Christians were found to have lower parity than the Hindus in each of the six wards where the number of sample mothers exceeded 150. The 12/ Illiteracy is so highly correlated with over-crowding, with r = ,61, to the extent that very little information about parity is added when over- crowding is known, Actually the partial correlation coefficient between parity and illiteracy after eliminating the effect of over-crowding and religious pattern is only .22. 13/ Census of India, 1961 Census - Religion, Paper No. 1 of 1963, pp. 24-25. 14,/ For the purposes of the significance tests carried out here, the variance of mothers' parities in each age group was calculated for all sample mothers and utilized in all sub-classifications under coneideration here as an estimate of the true variance in that age group. The variance of the average parity in any sub-classification was then taken to be equal to 2 o; Tw i where wy is the proportion of mothers in the i-th age group n i in the standard population, o? is the variance of parities in that age i group, and ny is the number of sample mothers in the same age group in the sub-classification. It is to be noted that this analysis is based on the assumption that the n° are fixed numbers, 315 differences between the parity averages were found to be statistically insignificant in two wards, significant at the five per cent level in one ward and at the one per cent level in the remaining three wards. The Muslims, on the other hand, had higher averages than those of the Hindus in each of the 12 wards where the number of Muslim mothers in the sample exceeded 150, These differences were statistically insignificant in three wards, significant at the 5 per cent level in three wards and at the one per cent level in the remaining six, It is worth noting that, as may well be seen in table 2, the average parities of the Christians were lower than those of the Hindus, which in their turn were lower than those of the Muslims -- in each age group between 20 and 44 years.15/ Table 2 Average Parity per 100 Mothers, by Age and Religion (the numbers between brackets are frequencies of mothers) Age Standardizeda/ Religion E parity for 15- 20- 25- 30- 35- po. | 2ges 15-39 Christian 124 191 312 1450 570 670 306 (156) (1083) (1391) (873) (342) (50) (3962) Hindu 122 210 352 498 635 737 339 (2251) (13395) (13335) (7702) (2628) (379) (40536) Muslim 129 223 381 534 706 835 366 (562) (2628) (2476) (1540) — (503) (91) (8083) a/ The standard population is that of all mothers. 1,. Residents of the city proper showed slighly lower fertility level than those living in the suburbs, This observation was true for each of the two main religious groups, the Hindus and the Muslims, as may be realized from table 3 where the standardized average parities by religion and locality are given for each of three equal batches into which the entire sample was systematically divided,16/ For the Hindus, the difference shown by batch 2 was significant at the five per cent level and the difference between the averages computed from the three batches pooled together was significant at 15/ The only irregularity in the 15-19 age group is the average of the Christians, which may have been influenced by the small size of this group. 16/ In tabulating the data, three cases were punched consecutively on each card; the cases punched in the beginning, middle and end of each card were naturally tabulated together and formed the three batches. 316 the one per cent level. As for the comparatively smaller Muslim community, only the difference shown by the three batches pooled together was significant at the five per cent level. In the case of the Christians the observed differences, including those shown by the pooled batches, were too small to be considered statistically significant in view of the small sizes of the groups considered. Table 3 Standardized Average Parity for the City and the Suburbs by Religion? Batch Locality Religion Hindu Muslim Christian (1) |City proper 337 358 323 Suburbs 342 365 324 (2) ¡City proper 336 361 317 Suburbs 342 366 322 (3) [City proper 336 357 325 Suburbs 340 372 338 All | City proper 336 359 322 batches Suburbs 342 368 328 a/ For each religion, the standardization is with respect to the age distribu- tion of all sample mothers aged 15-39 in Greater Bombay who belong to that religion, D, Migration and Fertility 15. The inward flow of migrants to Bombay is so strong that in the 1961 census almost two thirds of its population were reported as born elsewhere, Of the husbands of the 46,032 sample mothers for whom both parity and husband's duration of residence in Bombay were reported, 1, per cent reported "life-time" for the duration of their stay, and another 27 per cent reported durations of 20 years or more, The largest frequency of husbands belonged to the duration group 10-19 years which included 42 per cent of the total, Husbands whose durations ranged between 5-9 years amounted to 8 per cent, those with durations of 1-/ years were 6 per cent, while 3 per cent reported durations of less than one year, 16, Of the fathers with an identified place of birth inside India the majority as expected, were born in either Maharashtra (60.0 per cent) or Gujarath 17/ (16.1 per cent), These two states are followed by Mysore and 17/ Maharashtra is the state to which the city of Bombay belongs and Gujarath is a nearby state, Both states came into existence recently through the bifurcation of the original state. 317 Uttar Pradesh, each of which contributed 5.7 per cent of the fathers, Another 2.7 per cent came from Madras, 2.6 per cent from Andhra Pradesh, 1.7 per cent from Punjab and 1.6 per cent from Kerala. 17. In view of the scarcity of information on such characteristics of migrants to Bombay as education, religion and occupation, it would not be possible to account here for the differential fertility of these migrants in relation to their backgrounds, However, the registration parity data includes some interesting relevant information on fertility of migrants in relation to geographic origin and duration of exposure to the urban setting of Bombay, The following is a summary of the findings, which were arrived at by sub-tabulating the mother's parity by age according to father's state of birth and duration of residence in Bombay, 18, The 19 states and union territories of birth of the father were grouped into the following five zones: North 18/, Central 19/, East 20/, West 21/, and South 22/, The grouping resulted in the following distribution of mothers with given parity by husbend's zone of birth: North 1,574, Central 3,066, East 1446, West 36,850, and South 3,141. It was thus found that mothers whose husbands were born in the South showed the lowest parity level, while the highest level was shown by those having North-born husbands; the standardized average parities per 100 mothers aged 15-39 were 332 and 354 for the two groups, respectively. It was also observed that mothers whose husbands were born in the East showed a level very similar to that of the wives of South-born husbands, with the standardized average being 334. Between the levels observed in the South and East on the one hand, mothers whose husbands were born in the Central and Western zones showed an intermediate level, with standardized parities equal to 341 and 342, respec- tively. The three levels shown by the three regions: South and East, Centre and West, and North, were significantly different at the one per cent level. It is also worth adding that when the computations were made on a state-wide basis, mothers whose husbands were born in Kerala in the South (736 mothers) had the lowest parity level of 318, and that the highest level of 387 was shown by those whose husbands were born in Rajastan in the North (587 mothers). 19. These conclusions we:a not changed when the duration of exposure to the urban setting in Bombay wa: taken into consideration, Actually, by computing average parities by age in the duration group 10-19 years, whose frequencies are large enough in each zone, we get the following standardized average parities per 100 women aged 15-39: 322 and 321 for the South and East, respectively; 328 and 335 for the West and Centre; and 338 for the Nortll. The parities for all duration groups are given in part "A" of table 4 for the three 18/ Punjab, Rajastan, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Janmu and Kashmir, 19/ Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. 20/ Assam, Bihar, West Bengal, Manipur and Tripura. 21/ Maharashtra, Gujarath and Mysore. 22/ Andhra Pradesh, Madras and Kerala. 318 regions, Again the results show the increase in wife's parity level accord- ing to husband's place of birth: from South and East to the Centre and West to the North, in all durations below 20 years, These observed differences in parity in relation to geographic origin are apparently related to differences in educational and occupational patterns, with the migrants from the South having considerably higher education and occupation than those from the North, but the author has no access to statistics on such socio- economic characteristics of migrants, Table 4 Standardized?/ Average Parity per 100 Mothers by Husband's Region of Birth for Each Duration of His Stay in Bombay Duration A B in years South & Centre & North South & Centre & North East — West East West Less than 5 276 284 287 289 313 312 5.9 278 289 293 293 320 333 10-19 322 329 338 317 338 353 20 + b/ [VIN 410 44,6 367 370 407 All durations 332 342 354 332 342 354 a/ In part "A" the standardization in each duration group is with respect to the age distribution of all mothers in Greater Bombay belonging to that duration group (horizontal standardization), while in part "B" it is with respect to the age distribution of mothers of all durations belonging to the region (vertical standardization). b/ This group includes those who reported "life-time" for the duration of stay. 20, Table 4 gives no indication of a fertility decrease as the duration of exposure to the urban setting of Bombay increases. In fact, as is shown by part "B" in which one age structure was used for standardization in each region, the parity averages show a consistent increase with the increase in duration, It is not possible, however, to give a clear interpretation of this obvious trend since it may either mean a relatively higher fertility level in the immigration area, as could happen with an improvement in living conditions unaccompanied by family planning, or a tendency for immigrants to be having smaller families at the time of migration than their counterparts in the city. In view of the persistence of this pattern from one duration group to the next in each of the three columns, it can perhaps be safely concluded that within the urban area of Greater Bombay the population is unassimilated, settled according to ethnic groups, 319 Fécondité aotuelle des femmes mariées dans quatre zones rurales d'Iran MEHDI AMANI Professeur-adjoint de démographie à l'Université de Téhéran 1 - On possède peu de données sur la mesure de la fécondité des femmes iraniennes. La première enquête sur la fécondité en Iran, a été . effeotuée en 1950 dans 173 villages situés au sud-ouest de Téhéran (1). Au total 1,616 femmes ont été soumises à l'enquête qui portait sur les évènements des dix années la précédant. Cette enquête était donc, pour ainsi dire, une étude historique qui cumulait les données de ces dix anrées. Les questions ne portaient pas sur les évènements de l'année précédant l‘enquête, ce qui rendait presque impossible d'étudier la fécondité actuelle parmi les autres questions démo- graphiques. 2 = L'enquête effectuée par la section démographique de l'Institut d'Etudes et de Recherches Sociales de l’Université de Téhéran en 1964 et 1965, dans quatre régions rurales de l'Iran (2) nous a donné la possibilité d'étudier la fécondité effective actuelle, en plus des autres problèmes démographiquess 3 — L'univers Étudié Était constitué par "les femmes mariées de 10 4 49 ans". La structure par âge des femmes enquêtées s'est avérée presque la même que celle des femmes marifes de ces 4 régions au premier recensement iranien de 1956, 1- M.B. MASHAYEKHI, P.A. MEAD et G.S. HAYES, Some demographio aspects of a Rural Area in Iran, the Millbank Memorial Fund quaterly. Vol, XXXI. No.2. April 1953 2- Shahsavar, Hashtroud, Kazeroun et Torbate Heydarieh 320 Groupes d'êge 15-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 Tous Ages Recensement 1956 7 21 46 26 100% Enquéte 1964-65 8 20 41 25 100% On est fondé 4 dire que 1'échantillonnage est effeotué d'une manióre satisfaisante, ce qui rend, à son tour, digne de foi les taux de fécondité par Age et globaux obtenuse 4 = C'est la fécondité légitime (appelée ici effective) qui mesure le mieux l'aptitude physiologique à procréer; car, la fécondité générale, à la différence de la fécondité effective, llanos l'effet de la fécondité proprement dite, de la nuptialité, des moeurs et coutumes matrimonialese (1) Le tableau suivent présente les taux de fécondité effeotive par Age pour l'ensemble des 4 régions, en notant qu'il est le seul, existant en Iran, en ce qui concerne la fécondité effective par êge, jusqu'à maintenants Groupes d'âge 10 15 20 2 30 3 40 45 10 oe LRT Pp LY 14 19 24 29 34 39 44 49 49 Taux pour 1000 77 316 360 359 295 227 151 51 295 Ces résultats prouvent que 1l'áge de la femme est le facteur le plus important de la fécondité et que la limitation des naissances est nulle, Dans le tableau comparatif qui suit, nous avons ramsemblé une série de taux de fécondité effective des populations non-malthusiennes (à partir de 20 ans) pour montrer que la population rurale de l'Iran représente ,une forte féoon- dité comparable avec les maxima observés ailleurs. (Taux pour 1000). Groupes d'âge Iran Guinée Bengale Myssore Japon des femmes 4 régions rurales 1955 1946 1950 1925 20-24 360 345 323 314 338 23-29 359 323 288 264 296 30-34 295 264 282 201 252 35-39 221 188 212 146 195 40-44 151 84 100 24 88 45-49 51 38 33 1 16 Descendance finale 1,2 6,2 6,2 4,7 5,9 1- "Tiers-Monde", Sous-développement et développement, I.N.E.D., P.U.F. Cahier No. 39. Paris 1961 321 5 = On peut dfesser, en plus, une table de fécondité générale pour les 4 régions enquétées. Pour ce faire on a besoin du nombre total des femmes, compte non tenu de leur situation matrimoniale. Or, on posséde le pourcentage des femmes mariées de ces 4 régions au recensement 1956. En supposant que ces pourcentages n'ont pas changé de 1956 à 1964-65, on arrive à confectionner la population féminine estimée qui pouvait corres- pondre aux femmes échantillonnées dans les différents groupes d'âge. Une fois ces groupes d'fge quinquennaux obtenus nous pouvons cal- culer les taux de fécondité générale à l'aide de deux méthodes; a. par le nombre de naissances observé, réparties suivant l'Êge des mères. b. en répartissant le nombre total des naissances observées, suivant les coéfficients de pondération des taux de fécondité par Âge des mères (1): Age de la mère 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 Coéfficient de pondération 1 1 7 6 4 Nous avons obtenu à partir de ces deux sfies de données les taux de fécondité générale observés et théoriques: (pour 1000) Groupes d'âge Taux observés de Taux théoriques de femmes fécondité générale fécondité générale 15-19 106 49 20-24 303 344 25-29 360 305 30-34 261 300 35-39 248 320 40-44 102 92 15-44 243 243 D'après le nombre total des naissances des 12 mois précédent l'enquête et celui des femmes, le taux global de fécondité générale pour les quatre régions enquêtées s'éteblit à 243 pour 1000. 1- Méthodes de projections démographiques par sexe et par Âge, étude démographique No. 25. ST/SOA/Ser. A. Nations Unies. New York, 1957, VII 85 p. 322 6 - Nous venons déjà d'établir le taux de fécondité générale par âge. En les totalisant et en multipliant la somme par 5, on obtiént 6,90 (en ce qui concerne les taux observés) ce qui est le nombre moyen des enfants mis au monde par chacune des femmes des régions enquêtées au cours de leur période féconde (15 à 44 ans). ‘Enfin en tenant compte du taux de féminité à la naissance (0,488) on arrive au taux brut de reproduction (R); 6,90 x 0,488 = 3,37 Pour le caloul du taux net de reproduotion on expose les femmes en considération, au risques de mortalité dont le complément en taux de survie est caloulé comme suite (1). Age Taux de survie 15-19 0,7359 20-24 0,7117 25-29 0,6822 30-34 0,6532 35-39 0,6253 40-44 0,5943 Ce qui diminuera la descendance totale des femmes de 6,90 à 4,63 pour donner un taux net de reproduction de: 4,63 x 0,488 = 2,26 On doit souligner que dans les recherches effectuées à l'I.E.R.S. il a été trouvé un taux net de reproduction de 2,26 pour l’ensemble de l’Iran, Nous pouvons dire au sujet de cette concordance qu'il n'y aurait pas en Iran une différence sensible de fécondité entre ville et village et même si la population de Téhéran a une fécondité plus faible, sa pondération sur la moyenne de l'ensemble du pays n'est pas tellement considérable (de l'ordre de 0,1). 7 = En comparant ces deux taux oaloulés plus haut en remarque que dans les deux cas le remplacement des générations est fortement assuré; et même, la mortalité relativement forte qui fait mourir une bonne partie des femmes iraniennes ne peut pas être considérée comme pouvant réduire considérablement le remplacement des générations. Dans les pays développés le rapport RO est proche de 1funité tandis que dans les pays sous-développés R et les populations anciennes de forte mortalité, le rapport indiqué s'approche de la moitié et il tombe quelquefois même encore plus bas. Le tableau comparatif suivant donne quelques exemples spectanculaires de ce rapport. 1- J.C.CHASTELAND, M. AMANI et O.A.PUECH. Perspectives d'évolution 1956-1968 I1B.B.$., Tébiran 1966, VIII 312 p. 323 Pays Date RO R Canada 18° siècle 0,439 France - 1861-1865 0,602 France 1901-1905 0,715 Franoe . 1946-1950 0,903 France 1956-1959 0,955 Guinée 1954 0,471 Iran (4 régions) 1965 0,671 Le rapport R® ‘indique, en plus, le nombre des survivants à R l'âge moyen des mères pour une population féminine initiale à la naissance. Etant donné que cet âge est indépendant du pays et qu'il est presque tou- jours encadré par les âges 27 et 30 ans, le rapport ci-dessus peut être considéré comme un indicateur du niveau de la mortalité féminine, sinon de la population totale. 8 - En appliquant les coéfficients de pondération des taux de fécondité par âge des mères on peut obtenir la population totale (1) qui aurait pu correspondre à l'échantillon séleotionnée. Il suffit pour cela de multiplier ces coéfficients par l'effectif des femmes par groupes d'âge déjà calculé, ce qui donne une population totale théorique de 26,385. Or, on sait d'autre part que le nombre des naissances des 12 mois préoédant l'enquête est de 1360, ce qui donne un taux de natalité de 51,5 pour 1000. Il est à noter qu'on a pu calouler dans plusieurs cas le taux brut de natalité à l'aide de méthode mentionné, Par exemple à Chypre, en 1950, le taux de natalité oaloulé à partir des coéfficients, .et le taux réel, ont ét respectivement 30,04 .et 29,95 pour 1000, ce qui représente une différence de 0 53% 9 = Le taux net de reproduction (R°) détermine dans quelle mesure le remplacement des ginérations est assuré. En effet l'âge moyen des mères est la durée de temps nécessaire pour qu'une unité féminine devienne R°; d'où l'on peut établir l'équation suivantes RO = (1-+r)N, dans laquelle RO = taux net de reproduction r = taux intrinsèque d'accroissement naturel n = Âge moyen des mères (2). En utilisant les chiffres déjà calculés pour R° et n on arrive à r = 29,2 pour 1000, Ce taux nous semble acceptable du fait de son écart. positif par rapport au taux d'accroissement naturel caloulé pour la quinquénnie 1961-1966 par la seotion démographique de l'Institut » Bates et de Recherche Sociales, soit 28,7 pour 1000. - -1= Il s'agit de 1,7,7,6,4,1, (Méthodes de prodectigns démographiques par sexe et par Age. Etude démographique No. 25. ST/SOA/Ser.A.Nations Unies. New- York 1957, VII+85 p, 2- Cet 8ge est de 28,3 ans pour les 4 régions rurales £, En effet ce dernier taux correspond à la population totale du pays et il paraît naturel qu'il soit inférieur au taux d'accroissement naturel des régions rurales compte tenu de leur fécondité plus forte. 10 - Nous avons déjà celoulé d'une manière un peu abstraite, le taux de natalité (51,5 pour 1000) ainsi que le taux d'acoroissement naturel (29,2) pour les 4 régions, Or, la différence entre ces deux chiffres donnera le taux brut de mortalités 51,5% - 29,2% = 22,3% 325 Fertility Trends in Greater Bombay By S.P.Jain, Officer on Special Duty, Ministry of Health & Family Planning, Government of India, New Delhi, 1, Bombay is a primate city of India and is highly urbanised. It had a population of 4,1 millions in 1961, which has grown much since then, It depends on the hinterland for the supply of its basic needs of food, milk and vegetables. A large industrial and commercial population from all parts of the country is attracted to it, because of its location on the sea and the large capital investment that has already been made in developing the city and its numerous industries. It is the nearest approach in India to an industrialised city of the West with all its urbanism, It is well set to have a wide practice of contraception, because of the overcrowding, economic pressure of a decent standard of living and high price level, and secular and impersonal society. The Government has launched a massive family planning programme in the country. It is reasonable to expect that the impact of the drive should show itself at the earliest opportunity in Bombay, if anywhere in the country. The city has a well- spread network of medical service centre and is rich in medical personnel, Mass media are well-developed and means of communication are easy. The population is highly literate and has a progressive outlook. How far this expectation has been realised is proposed to be examined in this paper. 2. The city has the unique distinction of being the only place, in India, which has consistently been recording a registered birth rate around 28 since 1951 atleast, Certain studies have shown that registration in Bombay City, which accounts for 67% of the total population of Greater Bombay, is about 95% complete, as 95% of births occur in hospitals and maternity homes, from where births are completely reported, ‘the deficiency arises due to incomplete reporting of home deliveries. The good record of Bombay City is tempered by the indifferent reporting of births from Suburbs and Extended Suburbs, which respectively account for 25% and 8% of the population of Greater Bombay. In these areas, only 73.5% of births occur in hospitals and hence it is that the extent of under-registration of births in these areas is 21,2%. In issue no. 20 of the Newsletter ot the Demographic Training & Research Centre, Bombay, the positionhas been analysed and it has been shown that the registered birth rate of Greater Bombay is low somewhat The paper has been prepared by the author in his personal capacity.The Government of India shares no responsibility for anything given in this paper, 326 due to under-registration, but the major reasons are a smaller extent of marriage among women and a smaller proportion of women in the reproductive ages 15-44, Bombay has a sex ratio of 150,8 males per 100 females as against the figure of 106,3 in the country as a whole, There is yet another factor, which keeps the registration birth rate low. In Bombay, there is a practice of young wives going out of town for delivery, which are lost to registration, as it is based on place of occurrence, However, births to visitors are gained on this account but the net balance is a loss, It has been estimated that visitor's births in Bombay areAround 10%, while outbirths to normal residents of Bombay are around 20%, The Fertility Survey, which is referred to in this paper shows the last figure to be 18,9%. Of the remaining, 74.1% of total births occur in hospitals etc. and the balance 7% at homes, The note shows that there is little evidence of lower fertility in Greater Bombay as a whole, but that Bombay City has reduced fertility, which from its pattern seems to suggest the existence of family planning practices. The following table shows the marital age-specific fertility rates as obtained from the registration data in 1961 and the Fertility Survey, which relate to 1965, Tt may be clarified that in the Fertility Survey births to normal residents, whether they occur in Bombay or outside, are taken into account, Table 1 Greater Bombay Bombay City Registration Corrected Fertility Registration Data Survey Data (1961) ; (1961) (1965) (1961) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) 15-19 15631 202,0 180,9 169.9 20,24 263.6 341,2 243,9 298,9 25-29 224.53 290.7 258.1 247,90 30734 173.2 224,2 167,3 185.4 35-39 112.1 145.1 80,5 84.4 40-44 23,2 30,0 25,0 22,8 General 185 239 176 192 Fertility Rate The corrected rates are only crude approximations obtained by raising the registration rates by the estimated factor of deficiency in registration, A comparison of the rates in Cols, (3) & (5) shows that the reduction in the rates is greater at higher ages, which may be the effect of contraception,practices but this must have been so ever since. The fact that crude births remained steady since 327 1951 does not suggest any new spurtAn contraception practices. Fertility Survey rates of 1965 are lower still, There is a sharp drop in the fertility rate for 20-24. The possibility of survey figures being under-reported can not be ruled out altogether, although the female investigators, who collected the data, took every care to get a complete netting of birth$ Data regarding practices of contraception is Greater Bombay obtained in the Fertility Survey is produced here to study the significance of this difference. 3. A Sample Survey of the fertility of women in Greater Bombay and their knowledge, attitude and practice of family planning was carried out through trained women investigators by the Demographic Training & Research Centre, Bombay, when the writer was Director there. Some of the data on family planning have been compiled in advance for presentation in this paper. The field work was started in November, 1965 and completed by the end of August,1966, It was a two-stage probability sample, with electoral wards as the first stage sampling unit and investigator blocks of uniform size prepared by the National Sample Survey Organisation as the second stage sampling unit. The selected investigator blocks were complete- ly canvassed. The sample covered 7872 currently married women, of whom 1752 were aged 40 and above, The Schedule of the Survey had four parts. The first collected information about the members of the household primarily to locate normal resident currently married women, who had married only once, their and their husbandb'" social and economic characteristics, residential history, and births to all currently married women during the twelve months’ period of December,64 - November,65. The second part obtained information about the past pregnancies primarily to get a more complete netting of live births and their spacing. The third part concentrated on getting more reliable data about the last two births in case the last birth had occurred within the preceding 4 years and the break up énte of married life in the inter-delivery period into idle periods in fecundability. There is a large amount of memory lapse in furnishing this kind of information correctly. It is particularly difficult to get any useful information about idle periods for preceding births and hence the limitations imposed. The fourth part attempted at collecting information about the knowledge ,attitude and practice of family planning methods in respect of currently married women aged 40 or below. The sample yielded 6120 women, who were currently married and were aged 40 or below. Of them, 109 did not cooperate in giving information on family planning, leaving a sample of 6011 women, The data show that even after probing 32.4% (1949) had no knowledge of family planning, 20.8% (1250) were currently using a family planning method, 3.1% (185) were ever-users i.e. had previously used a method 328 but were not using any now and the remaining 43.7% (2627) had not used any method so far. The proportion of contra- ceptorg is by no means high. Of the never users, 7%(177) intended to practice family planning for spacing, and 32% (848) for limitation. The remaining 61% (1602) had no intention of using family planning even in future. Not many people seem to think of family planning methods in terms of spacing, although it seems to be a highly desirable development. Probably government propaganda, which talks mainly in terms of family limitation, has something to do with it, 4, The proportionate distribution of contraceptors according to the method of use is as follows. Similar results obtained in the Post-partum Survey in 1965 covering 289 women and Bombay Birth Study in 1960 covering 102 women are also shown for the sake of comparisons. The rate gives the percentage of women in the survey using the method:- Table2:Fertility Survey Post-partum Bombay Birth meme terre Survey Study Method Rate Proportion Proportion Proportion Sterili- 10,0 46,7 30.1 36.3 sation. Condom 4.1 19.2 35.3 24.6 Rhythm 1.8 8.4 6.2 7.8 Loop 1.5 7.0 8.0 - Coitus 1.1 5.2 3.8 2.9 Interruptus Pills 0.9 4.5 4,5 - Diaphragm 0,6 2.8 8.6 9.8 and Jelly Foam Tablets 0,3 1,3 2.1 2,9 Jelly 0.2 1.2 1,4 2,0 Others 0.8 3.7 - 13.7 21.5 100 100 100 The Fertility Survey includes 33 women twice, as they reportedusing two methods simultaneously. The largest number came from the 108 rhythmic method cases. Of them, 14 ,were using condoms, 11 coitus interruptus and only 1 xm jelly. Of 38 sk using diaphragm and jelly, 3 were using condoms too and of 14 using jelly 1 was using condoms. Only 2 condoms users were practising coitus interruptus too and 1 diaphragm and jelly user too was practising coitus interruptus. Thus, condoms and coitus interruptus were the supplementary methods among those using conventional contraceptives. A comparison of the three series shows that the 329 that the conventional methods have lost to sterilisation and the new comers loop and the pill, The greatest decline is in the proportion using condoms. After sterilisation condom is the next most popular. It is interesting to find a substantial number practising rhythmic method. Does this group consist of conscientious objectors against other methods or they are using this method in the absence of knowledge of other more effective methods. 5. Of those not currently practising a family planning method, although they had used it previously, 14% wanted to have a child, 36% was pregnant, 15,9% was in Post-partum Amenorrhoea, 1,2% was sterile and 1,2% was too 111. Only 14.6% dropped out, as it did not like any method and 17.1% gave no reason, Information could not be collected about 20 women out of 185, It is seen that nearly } fell out, because they were not satisfied by the family planning methods. 6. In paras 6-9, the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the six family planning status groups are discussed. The following table shows the age distribution of the women in the various family planning status groups:- Table 3 Ever 1961 Sample Nb Current Guxxzxk Future No use Census - know- users. users users even in ledge. future, 15-19 9,4 8,4 - 12.8 0.9 2.7 8.5 8.7 20-24 25.6 21.3 24.5 8.8 15.7 30.5 22.7 25-29 28.5 27.7 26.7 25.6 29.7 34,0 26,2 30-34 21,5 23.9 19,7 33,0 33.5 19.8 23,8 35-39 15,0 18,7 16.3 31.7 18.4 7.2 1876 100,0 100.0 100,0 100.0 100,0 100,0 100,0 The sample is slightly biased in favour of women above 30. The ‘no knowledge" group is xixerxx clearly younger, Current users are more elderly. The tilt above 25 years of age is very clear, Ever users are more in the range 25-34. Future users are more in 20-29, The group of ‘no use even in future is slightly more elderly than the general population. These deviations can be readily understood, if it is borne in mind that family planning appeals more to women at higher ages. 7a. The percentage distribution of women by religion of the groups having different status as regards family planning is as follows. The distribution in the population of Greater Bombay according to 1961 Census is also given for the sake of 330 comparison:- Table 4 1961 Sample No Current Ever Future Future No use Census know- users users users users evon in ledge for for future spac- limi- ing. tation _ 1.Hindus 69.1 71.8 69,4 178.8 72,4 61.6 77.4 72.5 2. Muslims 15.0 9.0 7.7 7.5 11.4 19.5 7.9 11.3 5. (1)Roman ) ( Catholics - ) ( 1.9 2.2 799 1.56 5.5 (44)0ther ) 6.9 11.0 (19.9 Christians ) 0.2 0.5 1.1 0.1 0.2 (111)Chris- ) 2.2 2.7 2.8 1.9 2.2 tians, sect) not stated ) ( 4.Parsees 1,7 2.4 2.6 5.0 2.2 1.1 1.1 0.4 5,0thers 9.5 5.8 0.4 6.6 8.6 6,2 11.0 8.3 — 100.9 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100,0 100,9 100.0 The figures for the sample include 1752 women aged 40 and above and 109 women who did not furnish information on family planning, There are no marked religiougäifferentials in family planning status. The percentage of 19,9 for Christians in the 'no knowledgo' group is sur- prising. It is mot free from doubt whether the respondent gave a misleading reply. The appreciably higher proportion for future users for spacing among Roman Catholics is interesting, Cross tabulation of current users by method of contraception did not reveal any strong differential. Nearly 1/3 Muslims used condoms as against 1/6 of Hindus, Among the Hindus 50% went in for sterilisation against the proportion of 1/3 among Muslims, Among Christians 1/3 went in for sterilisation and another 1/3 for rhythmic method. /Hindus only 8% adopted rhythmic method. To. + As another measure of cultural setting, we may take mother tongue. The fblloving table shows a similar percontage distribution, by the cultural charnoteristiose- 331 Table 5 Mother- 1961 Sample No Current Ever Future Future No tongue Census know- users users users users use ledge. for even Spacine )imi- in tation, futur —_— & — — — — Marathi 42.7 48.5 51.1 42,0 42,5 69.9 59.3 49,2 Gujarati 19.1 26.7 24,7 31.9 29,8 17,4 22,4 20.6 Hindi & 3 7.9 7.2 10.5 5.9 7.5 1.8 4,9 8.5 Urdu, Malayalam 1,8 1.4 0.9 1.8 1.5 1.8 1.1 2,0 Tamil 2.5 1.8 0.7 2.1 3.0 1.8 0.6 Telugu 2.4 1.7 2.1 1.6 - Kannada 1,9 2.9 2.8 2.4 3.7 0,9 2,7 Sindhi 2.3 2.1 0.7 3.4 4.5 1.8 2.4 1.4 Others 19.4 7.7 6.5 8,9 7.5 3.8 5.1 8,9 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100.0 100,0 100,0 Here again, there are no marked cultural differences, It seems that Gujaratis and Sindhis are appreciably over- represented in the current users and ever users. Hindi and Urdu, which covers Northern Indjans, is slightly under-represented in practice of family planning. The Southern Indian cultures covered by Malyalam, Tamil, Telugu and Kannada get their share according to their numerical strength. There were no marked differences in the methods. of contraception: adopted by the different mother-tongue groups. Among Gujaratis 60% adopted sterilisation against 52%among Marathi-speaking., 8. The percentage distribution by educational standard of the husband in the different family planning status groups as determined by wives is given below:=- cond...8 332 Table 6 1961 Sample No Current Ever Future Future No use Census know- users, users, users users even ledge. for for in spac- limi- future ing. tation. 14,1 12.2 14.8 10.7 11.2 12.6 1.I1lliterate 26.1 15.5 23.7 2.No school- 26,1 11,8 14.6 ing or below junior pri- mary and basic. 3,Junior Pri-31,8 42,2 46.2 37.1 32.4 47.5 51.8 44.7 mary & basic upto non- matric, 4 ,Matric passll.? 19,7 12.5 28.8 33,0 23.2 19,7 19.8 -ed but not graduate. 5,University 3.7 9.2 2.5 21.2 22.2 3.9 4,3 6.7 graduatéon or higher. 6 .0ther tech- 0,8 1.6 0.5 3.0 4.3 0.6 0.8 1.4 nical diploma or certificate. a E w .. w o 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100.0 100,0 100,0 The6ample is biased in favour of better educated class, The data clearly demonstrate that family planning has found a greater acceptance among the more highly educated and conversely lack of knowledge of family planning is greater among the less educated. The demarcation line is the 'matric passed" group. There is no marked differential among different educational groups. The effect is made more prominent if the education of wife is considered. The higher the education, the greater is the practice of family planning. The relevant figures are shown below:- cond, ..9 333 Table 7 1961 Sample No Current Ever Future Future No us Census know- users. users users users even ledge for spac for in -ing. dimi- future tation, IIlliterate 42,5 38.3 54.5 15.2 8.1 30.5 38.2 34.5 2No schooling21,0 12,1 10.6 9.6 9.2 11,3 13.8 12,4 or below junior prim- ary and basic. 3.Junior prim-27,6 36.6 30.9 46.1 52,4 45.2 40.0 36.3 ary and basic upto non-matric. 4,Matric 6.9 8,86 3.2 18.7 17,3 11.3 5.8 9.0 passed but not gradu- ate. 5.University 1,8 3,4 0.5 9.8 10.3 1.1 1,7 2,4 graduation or higher. 6,Other tech-0.2 0,5 0.3 0.6 2.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 nical diploma or certifi- cate. 100,0 100.0 100.0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,C 9a. Economic status of the household was fixed by the investigator after ascertaining the monthly income of the couple and taking into account the standard of living. The classification is rather subjective. Among women, who had no knowledge of family planning, 3,7% belonged to upper class, 3.S% to upper middle, 14,92% to miadle, 37,2% to lower middle and 40.4% to lower classes, There is no clear idea of the distribution of these classes in the general population, but it seems to be indicated that the percentage for middle classes, is rather high considering the fact that family planning methods have a greater message for them in their plight of economic strain, 334 9b, The following table shows the percentage distribution of Huskands and wives according to their occupational status, where the wife indicated no knowledge of family planning methods:- Table 8 Husband Wife Not working 4.6 94.5 Professional, 2.5 0.4 technical,adminis- trative, executive and managerial, Clerical 9,6 0.1 Sales worker 20,1 0,86 Production process 8.5 - worker, Skilled workers 21.9 0.3 (craftsmen and transport workers) Unskilled(including 31.4 3.4 domestic servants) Primary sector 1,1 0.5 worker. Miscellaneous 0.3 0.1 100,0 100,0 Primary sector covers mainly fishermen. Higher proportions among husbands are shown by unskilled workers, skilled and sales workers. Production precess workers are quite a large proportion in total population and their low proportion among 'no knowledge' group is a satisfactory sign. The proportion of 'not working' group is low presumably because of their low percentage in the total population, Among the wives nearly 95% are not working group. They have a high proportion in general population but this proportion reflects on over-representation. “orking women are so very few in this group of 'no knowledge',that their division by part-time and whole-time gives only very small numbers, Unly in the unskilled group, the number is substantial, namely 67, It is significant that % of them were full-time workers and only 4 part-time, 3 335 10. Thanks to government propaganda, sterilisation is very well known to the public, who recall it by the word ‘operation’, Leaving out those who professed no knowledge of a family planning method, as also those cases, where either of the couple was sterilised, only 1.3% did not know about sterilisation, 69,8% new both male and female methods, 0.4% knew only of vasectomy and 28.5% only tubectomy, Of them, 49.1% approved of the method including 32,9% who were willing to go in for it. 24,8% disapproved of it and the remaining 26,1% gave a condi- tional approval depending on circumstances. 11. Leaving out loop wearers, 53% showed no knowledge of loop, 43.9% had knowledge and the rest 3.1% were not definite. Only 8.1% said that they would also recommend it to others to wear it,. The extent of lack of knowledge of loop is surprising in the different family planning Asers, 23% among ever users, 61% among never users in future too and 58% among future users. It does not appear that loop has received adequate publicity. Zstatus groups. he percentage of such persons was 41 among current 12. Of those,who professed knowledge of a family planning method, 16.1% approved of induced abortion and the rest 83,9% disapproved it, The number of those, who were not definite, was insignificantly small, The approvers consisted of 28% of current users, 28% of ever users, 12% of future users and only 6.5% of neva: users - not in future also. The last group called 'A' is a small section - but still interesting enough to merit a discussion of the reasons advanced in their support. Percentage of those, who advanced the specific reason, was as follows; only five out of 105 gave multiple reasons, entage All approvers Group A 1. lor mother's health and welfare 20.0 22.5 2, To get rid of an unwanted pregnancy39.1 32.6 3. Medical reasons . 16.4 20.2 4. Economic reasons. 13.6 12,0 5, Woman's right, 6.4 6.5 6, Rape or incest, 3.6 2.8 7. In cage done at an early stage. 0.9 3.4 100,0 100,0 The percentages in group À and 'all approvers' of induced abortion are strikingiy similar. Reasons 2,4 and 5 are rather unexpected from group A, which does not believe in family planning methods, Among those who disapproved, the percentage of those, who held induced abortion to be against God and religion vas 55,6, those who held it to be murder 8.1, xkm those who had conscientious objection 1,2 and those 33€ who held it harmful for mother's health 35.1, 13, After sterilisation and loop, condom is the most popular. It has a special importance for those interested in the progress of family planning movement in India, as it does not require medical services. A study of the condom users is thus helpful. About 80% of them got their supplies from chemists and general merchants and only 15% from hospitals and clinics etc., although they distribute them free. 44% use it for limitation and the rest for spacing. The decision to use it was reached by mutual consultation between husband and wife. The bulk of the users were using it regularly and 84% had not used any other method. 6,6% used it before they had any child, 20.7% after the first child, 30.9% after the second child, 22,0% after the third child and 19.8% after fourth and higher order birth, A great majority of condom users, where wife was aged 20-24, had 1 to 2 living children, In cases, where wife was aged 25x29, the number of living children was generally 1 to 3. In age group30-34, the number of living children was 2 to 3, At higher ages there was no such clear concentration. About 88% of condom users belonged to middle and higher classes. 73% of the husbands were matric and over, More of the condom users had higher education. 36% were graduates or post-graduates. Similarly, professional, administrative and executive group was represented more in the group of condom users. 14, The extent of the practice of family planning in Greater Bombay is indicated in the preceding paragraphs. It may serve to give a broad idea of how much reduction in fertility may be expected to have occurred on this account, 337 FERTILITY PATTERNS IN NEW GUINEA. AN APPRAISAL OF PRESENT KNOWLEDGE D.J. van de Kaa Research Fellow, Department of Demography Australian National University Introduction 1: The population native to New Guinea and its adjacent islands probably numbered about 2.9 million by mid 1966. This total includes a figure of nearly 2.15 million for the indigenous population of the Territory of Papua and New Guineal and an extremely rough estimate of 750,000 for what is at present called Irian Barat or West New Guinea. 2. As yet no serious attempt can be made to establish vital rates for this population or its major components. However, a sample census was taken in the eastern half of the island in June 1966 and on that occasion questions relating to the issue of women were asked. It is therefore likely that the knowledge on fertility in this area will increase somewhat in the near future. But as New Guinea poses rather formidable problems from the point of view of censustaking there is every reason not to be too optimistic about the quality of the data obtained. 3. Under these conditions it seems worthwhile to look at this stage more closely at: a. the general aspects of fertility in New Guinea, and b. the fertility data that have been reported for small sections of the population to date. General aspects 4. In the first instance it would perhaps seem that one might expect a rather uniform pattern of fertility in New Guinea. For one might argue that what the population has in common are certainly some, but more likely many, centuries of isolation before contact with European cultures, and an environment which, at the given level of technology and organisation, was almost invariably rather unfavourable. As these are by no means independent variables one might assume, consequently, that there must have been little 338 possibility for the population groups concerned to maintain fertility at a level rather below what would have been optimal and still survive. 5. Although valuable, this line of argument largely disregards the internal situation in which there is very little uniformity or unity. The difficulties and possibilities which confront occupying human groups differ not only from region to region but in fact from one small area to another. Similarly, important technological and organisational differences may be observed over small distances, and what strikes anthropologists and linguists in particular is the enormous number and variety of small local groups which speak their own dialect or language and have their own individual culture with clearly distinct kinship - and marriage regulations, for example. Moreover, the date at which contact with the European cultures was established varies quite considerably and it should be recognised, therefore, that there has been every opportunity for the development of quite different standards of behaviour and values within the broad New Guinea framework. From a demographic point of view this may of course have important consequences. 6. If one looks in some detail at the characteristics which anthropologists attribute to New Guinea societies,2 it becomes clear that almost reverse tendencies can be observed in regard to the level of fertility. 7. Because territorial organisations tend to be absent or poorly developed, while even the larger kinship groups may have little immediate function, it is not to be expected that large sections of the population share as a common ideal the strengthening of such a group by maintaining high fertility. 8. Almost invariably foremost in the Papuan's interest is the small local group or the small kinship group; groups which tend to overlap to such an extent that a descent group may be almost identical with a residence group. This may motivate towards high fertility by stressing that it is highly important that the group continue to exist, or by considering the numerical strength of the group and the number of children in a family as a source of pride and prestige. 9. On the other hand there are numerous reasons which may have given rise to different views and may have led to practices aimed at a certain limitation of fertility. The often rather unsteady basis of subsistence may have posed serious problems to a growth in numbers as such, while it quite certainly placed a very heavy burden on the shoulders of the females. As they are mainly responsible for the food supply of the family too many births within too short a period of time could be seen to be a threat to the family's wellbeing and to the wellbeing of the children born as well. For similar reasons some groups may have displayed a certain reluctance in "giving women away" in marriage, with the probable consequences of delaying the beginning of reproduction. 339 10. Because foodstuffs suitable for weaning tend to be few or cannot be adequately prepared, lactation needs to be very prolonged and it may have been widely realised that a maximum number of births does not necessarily result in a maximum number of survivors. Indeed, there are few sections of the population for which restrictions relating to sexual intercourse with nursing women have not been reported, or in which very short birth intervals were not frowned upon traditionally. In addition, there are numerous reports relating to the use of contraceptives and abortifacients, the procurement of abortion by mechanical means, or ultimately infanticide. 11. Nevertheless, it is pretty cercain that New Guinea may still be considered to belong to the group of countries assumed to be relatively free from anti-natal practices. However, this does not necessarily mean that fertility is at its biological maximum or comes close to it. From what so far has been reported by social anthropologists and other investigators, it would appear that there is a considerable variation within New Guinea and, in general, the pattern most likely to be encountered would be a moderately high level of fertility. Data so far reported 12. Since 1950 information similar to that sought during the census of the Territory of Papua and New Guinea has been collected in 13 small areas and these are shown in Table 1. 13. They differ rather much in time - which may be important in some instances - and although the areas concerned represent a relatively wide range of environmental conditions, cultures and developmental history, they cannot be taken as representative of the whole of New Guinea and its adjacent islands. They were not selected to do so, and the selection is clearly very biased. 14. With only one exception - i.e. Moejoe - all figures relate to coastal or island populations, for example, even though some include inland sections (e.g. Marind, Nimboran). No group of the generally densely populated Central Highlands is represented in the series and this is an important omission. In addition, the information relating to some of the areas listed was collected because conditions there appeared to be rather abnormal and this caused serious concern. Such atypical groups are therefore probably rather overrepresented. It should finally be stressed that the areas Schouten Islands up to Fak-Fak inclusive certainly belong to the most advanced parts of the former Netherlands New Guinea and that in general coastal areas tend to have a longer history of contact than the very much underrepresented inland or highland areas. 15. The percentages of nulliparous women are remarkably high in four areas (Table 2) and it would seem as if these percentages distinguish the atypical populations quite adequately from the "normal" ones. 340 16. Three of the atypical populations are known to have suffered from venereal infections. Granuloma venereum was introduced into the Marind-and Jeei-Anim - whose culture was characterised by a hyperthrophic sexuality - about 1902 and had reached formidable proportions before it was brought under control some fifteen years later, and gonorrhoea was found to be widespread amongst the population of the Tigak-villages and Tabar Island, and the cause of much primary and secondary sterility there. 17. Although gonorrhoea has probably been extensive in more communities living on the islands and coast of the Territory of New Guinea and possibly eastern Papua, it has never been reported more than sporadically in Irian Barat and neither has syphilis. With granuloma venereum largely limited to the Marind-and Jeei-Anim the apparent infertility of a high number of women in Fak-Fak cannot be attributed automatically to venereal disease. But it is very likely that some disturbance has occurred and this further reduces the number of presumably "normal" populations. 18. Estimates of current age specific birth rates are available for a number of the population groups concerned. Table 3 gives these rates for the groups supposed to display a normal pattern, but including Fak-Fak. 19. The figures for the Buka Island-villages are essentially based on registration data. The rates for the areas Schouten Islands up to Moejoe inclusive are based on the same retrospective data as those used in Table 1, but the rates relate to the children born in a comparatively short period before the women were interviewed. 20. A not unimportant proportion of the children ever born to women of the younger age groups has of course been born in the period to which the calculated age specific birth rates pertain, and one would therefore perhaps expect that the mean number of children born to these women would not differ substantially from the estimated average cumulative fertility at these ages. However, that the figures turn out to be as close as Table 4 shows - the smallest difference being 2 per cent or less in each area ~ is nevertheless somewhat beyond expectation and an encouraging indication of the consistency of the data. It leads, under certain conditions, to the conclusions that the estimate of current fertility has not been influenced by an error in the reference period and/or that if there was any recall lapse amongst the younger women, the effect of this on the total number of births reported is not greater than the effect on the number reported to have been born during the last five years or so. Discussion 21. In all areas the estimates of current total fertility are higher than the mean numbers of children ever born to women aged 45-49 at the time of the survey. The difference tends to be in the order of from 10 to 20 per cent, but reaches nearly 60 per cent in the case of Fak-Fak. Undoubtedly recall lapse is a major cause of this phenomenon, but it is certainly not the sole cause in all areas. 341 22, There is first of all convincing evidence that the performance of the older birth cohorts of women has been affected by the war and the period of Japanese occupation (1942-44) in most, but not all, areas of Western New Guinea for which the two sets of data are available. Moejoe was not occupied and Lower Waropen seems to have been of marginal interest only, but the number of children born to the Tolai women of the T.P.N.G. may also have been reduced by the effects of war and occupation. It should further be remarked that all areas of Western New Guinea experienced a yaws campaign (total mass treatment with P.A.M.-injections) in either 1955 or 1956 and that indoor-spraying against malaria ~ resulting in a very important decline in mortality - was started between 1955 and 1957 in the Schouten Islands, Noemfoor, Lower Waropen and Nimboran. Some increase in fertility as a result of this and better medical facilities in general should be reckoned with, and it would be of especial interest to know whether there is any relationship between the high percentage of presumably sterile women, the treatment with P.A.M.-injections and the recent rapid increase in fertility in Fak-Fak. Finally the point should be made that the figures for the 45-49 age group of women as a comparison may give a rather unfavourable indication of the amount of recall lapse. It appears likely that there was a certain reluctance to attribute children to the older ages of birth, and this may have led to an underestimation of the age of women to whom such children were born - and who therefore presumably tended to have a rather long progeniture already - thus favouring the 40-44 age group at the expense of the 45-49 group. At the same time recall lapse will have affected the latter group more than the former. 23. The current fertility figures come up to expectation in the sense that a considerable variation from one area to another is indeed characteristic. However, the hypothesis that fertility might be only moderately high is not confirmed. On the contrary, in four of the six areas of Western New Guinea current total fertility lies between 7 and 8 children per woman passing through the reproductive period and the Buka Island figures = curiously irregular as they are - do, if anything, suggest a total fertility rate of at least the same magnitude. It is furthermore extremely likely that the figures obtained on the mean number of children ever born for the Maraisi and the Cyclop- and Tolai-villages do substantially under- estimate current fertility, and although it is hardly possible to guess at the actual levels, they could easily be rather high. With Lower Waropen at 6.5 and three other areas very clearly atypical, Moejoe would then be the only "normal" case in which current fertility remains under 5. 24. Interestingly enough, Moejoe is also the only area where the mean number of children ever born to the very old women - i.e. those aged 55-59 and 60 and over at the time of the investigation - exceeds the mean for women aged from 40 to 55 years. With values of 4.68 and 4.87 respectively, the average completed family size of these old women in fact exceeds current total fertility. This could reflect a relatively recent fertility decline in this area which may be only temporary. There was an extreme shortage of males in the 30 to 50 years age range (only 430 males per 1000 population) and despite polygamy, a high percentage of women were unmarried. 342 25. It would appear nevertheless that Moejoe has a pattern of fercility which is more different from the high fertility pattern of Schouten Islands and Nimboran than, for example, that of Lower Waropen. Birth intervals tend to be up to 35 per cent longer in Moejoe than in the other areas, while the age at first marriage is at the same time considerably higher (vide Tables 2 and 3). In Lower Waropen there is not the suggestion of an essentially different "type", but only of a limited variation on the high fertility pattern mainly caused by the tendency to frown upon the remarriage of widows and divorcees. The effect of this may be illustrated by calculating, for a given cohort of women, the mean number of children with rank number of procreator 2 and over ever born per woman and the percentage of such children in the total number of children born to the same women, even although more variables are involved in this measure. For women born 1911- 1915 these figures are 1.15 or 18 per cent for Schouten Islands, for example, but only 0.37 or 6.3 per cent for Lower Waropen (vide also Table 3). 26. The validity of the common assumption of constant fertility in the last 60 years or so in New Guinea cannot be tested very satisfactorily. It is quite clear that the introduction of venereal diseases through contact with Europeans and others has resulted in an important fertility decline in a number of areas, and as more intensive contact with many population groups does not date back more than one or three decades such a phenomenon could be more widespread than at first envisaged. However, the later contact occurred the less likely is it that infection followed and spread. And the groups with fertility decline may in balance not be numerous enough to make the assumption invalid. 27. What is much more likely to have occurred is a change in fertility pattern caused by a rise in the age at first marriage. This may in fact be a common phenomenon in most areas which have been exposed to the influence of the Missions and the Administration for a sufficiently long period. Table 5 illustrates this point for the Schouten Islands, but the same sort of sequence was found in nearly all areas - i.e. excluding Fak-Fak - of Western New Guinea for which similar data were gathered. It should of course be recognised that a systematic error will also be involved here. The almost complete absence of written records, especially for the older women, may have caused the estimates of the age at marriage and birth of first child, for example, to cluster more strongly around values thought to be normal than has in reality been the case.” This would almost certainly lead to underestimating this age and it may be seen that better estimates for the younger than for the older women would have the effect of accentuating the changes due to an increase in age at first marriage. 28. It should finally be pointed out that the fertility figures for the areas Schouten Islands up to Moejoe inclusive may have been affected by the fact that ages were estimated on the basis of the difference in years between the year of birth of the mother and the year of birth of the child, i.e. by splitting a difference of 20 between ages 19 and 20, for example. If one of the years of birth was originally arrived at by simply adding an estimated age to, or alternatively subtracting an estimated age from, the 343 other - which is bound to have happened in some cases - the procedure of splitting would introduce a small error which would have the effect of making the fertility schedule slightly too young. And although an early fertility peak in combination with a relatively rapid decline with increasing age could very well be characteristic of the fertility pattern in many New Guinean societies, better data may prove that especially the decline at the higher reproductive ages is less marked than the present, mainly retrospective information, would suggest. References 1 Bureau of Statistics, Papua, Census of Papua and New Guinea, 1966. Preliminary Bulletins 1-18 (1966). 2 Bureau of Native Affairs, Hollandia, Anthropological Research in Netherlands New Guinea since 1950, Oceania Monographs No.10, Sydney (1959). Sources: Table 1 1 Wijsmuller, G., Biidrage tot het Onderzoek der Volksgezondheid in Nieuw Guinea, Tijdschrift Nieuw Guinea, 12, 161-171 (1951/52). Sollewijn Gelpke, J.H.F., Enige gegevens omtrent het verloop van de Mairasi-stam (Kaimana), Fak-Fak, 6 pp. (1952) (typescript). McArthur, Norma, The Populations of the Pacific Islands. Part VIII, Netherlands New Guinea, 566-583 (1955), vide also: Rapport van het Bevolkingsonderzoek onder de Marind-Anim van Nederlands Zuid Nieuw Guinea [South Pacific Commission - S.18 Project], Den Haag (1958). Scragg, R.F.R., Depopulation in New Ireland. A Study of Demography and Fertility, Territory of Papua and New Guinea, Port Moresby (1958), also private communication. Epstein, A.L. and T.S., A Note on Population in Two Tolai Settlements, Journal of the Polynesian Society, 71, i, 70-82 (1962), and private communication. Groenewegen, K. and van de Kaa, D.J., Results of the Demographic Research Project Western New Guinea (E.E.C. project 11.41.002), 6 (forthcoming), The Hague (1964/6.). 344 Table 1 THE MEAN NUMBER OF CHILDREN EVER BORN PER WOMAN OF EACH AGE GROUP IN A NUMBER OF NEW GUINEAN POPULATIONS Cyclop Marind- and Buka Island villages! Maraisi tribe? Jeei-Anim3 villages Age 1951 1952 1953 1953 No. of Mean p. No. of Mean p. No. of Mean p. No. of Mean p. S.E womend woman _womenP>€ woman women womand “ women woman he 15-19) 167 1.38 7b (0.71) 309 0.14 .02 69 0.22 .06 20-24) - 27 1.70 364 1.19 .06 56% 1.77 .17 25-29 151 3.43 33 2.48 301 2.61 .10 43 2.98 .23 30-34 106 5.10 22 4.36 197 3.94 .18 37 4.84 .39 35-39 88 5.82 23 4.17 161 3.15 .23 35 6.14 .37 40-44 110 6.15 16 4.13 233 2.82 .19 22% 7.86 .39 45-49 331 2.74 .16 20 6.50 .77 45+ 205 5.76 15 5.77 50-54 260 2.27 .16 13* 06.08 .85 Tigak villages* Tabar Island* Tolai villages’ 1953 1953 1960 No. of Mean p. S.E. No. of Mean p. S.E. No. of Mean p. S.E. women woman women woman women woman 15-19 38 0.08 .04 60 0.22 .07 46 - - 20-24 40 0.93 .14 84 0.99 .13 84 1.39 .15 25-29 34 1.41. .26 72 1.53 25 76 2.87 .17 30-34 38* 2.79 .35 42 1.90 .30 70 4.34 .20 35-39 30 3.23 .45 27 2.93 .48 56 4.59 .33 40-44 25 3.64 .60 68 3.10 .37 40 4.30 .48 45-49 16 3.50 .88 62 3.11 .36 32 5.37 .45 50-54 8* 4.38 1.20 25 3.28 .62 21 4,76 66 Schouten Islands® Noemfoor6 Lower Waropen® 1960 1961 1961 No. of Mean p- S.E.8 No. of Mean p- S.E.8 No. of Mean p. Œ. women woman women woman women woman€ 15-19 | 1029 0.24 .03 166 0.13 04 356 0.11 .03 20-24 | 1304 1.83 .04 175 1.52 .10 319 1.22 .07 25-29 | 1151 3.83 .05 121 3.71 .17 280 3.26 11 30-34 | 1202 5.37 .07 137 5.74 20 269 5.15 13 35-39 | 912 6.53 .09 139 6.35 .25 254 5.92 18 40-44 791 6.82 .11 125 7.91 .27 280 6.15 17 45-49 | 572 6.37 .13 103 7.42 .33 179 5.98 17 50-54 | 570 6.17 .12 107 6.49 .32 182 5.57 .20 345 Table 1 (continued) Nimboran® Fak-Fak6 Moe joe® 1962 1962 1962 Age No. of Mean p. S.E.8 No. of Mean p: S.E.8 No. of Mean p- S.E.8 women __ Woman women woman women woman 15-19 | 351 0.18 .03 228 0.23 .04 456 0.03 .01 20-24 | 306 1.61 .07 291 1.56 .09 373 0.86 .06 25-29 | 327 3.45 .09 249 3.10 .12 356 2.21 .07 30-34 | 305 5.26 .12 192 4.17 .19 352 3.38 .10 35-39 | 296 6.77 .14 175 4.85 .24 317 4.09 12 40-44 | 242 6.86 .18 162 4.93 .31 313 4.38 .12 45-49 | 232 6.69 .19 94 4.56 .38 233 4.35 .13 50-54 | 184 6.45 .18 102 4.37 .35 178 4.07 .15 a. 23 nulliparous women aged 25 or over have been pro rata distributed. b. exclusive of never married women under 19 years of age. c. exclusive of two nulliparous but pregnant women age unknown. d. live born. * exclusive of one woman number of children unknown. e. as at Dec. 31, 1960. f. as at Dec. 31, 1961. g. relates to parity distribution as at datum point date. Table 2 THE NUMBER OF NULLIPAROUS WOMEN AS A PERCENTAGE OF THE TOTAL NUMBER OF WOMEN IN THE CORRESPONDING AGE GROUP IN A NUMBER OF NEW GUINEAN POPULATIONSa Population Age LIRR 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-39 40-54 Marind- and Jeei-Anim 88 37 14 21 32 Buka Is. villages* 83 18 4.7 2.8 5.5 Tigak villages* 92 38 41 12 22 Tabar Island* 83 44 38 30 26 Tolai villages 100 36 14 4.8 11 Schouten Islands 79 21 5.5 4.4 5.4 Noemfoor 87 26 5.8 6.2 3.3 Lower Waropenb 88 31 8.6 4.8 4.5 Nimboran€ 84 23 8.0 3.3 3.8 Fak-FakC 82 28 9.2 14 17 Moe joeC 95 43 14 8.4 4.4 a. Sources as Table 1. C. b. More accurately those born 1941-1945, 1936-1940 and so on as at 31 Dec.1960, 30 June 1961 and 31 August 1961 respectively. May 1962 and 31 August 1962 respectively. * Idem those born 1942-1946, 1937-1941 and so on as at 31 Jan.1962, Jan./ As Table 1. 346 Table 3 THE AVERAGE ANNUAL AGE SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATES REPORTED FOR SOME NEW GUINEAN POPULATIONS (RATES PER 1,000 WOMEN) à Buka Schouten Lower e LC c a Island? Islands Noemfoorc Waropen® Nimboran® Fak-Fak“ Moejoe e nd Period 3Q.6.1947- 1956- 1956- 1956- 1957- 1957- 1957- 30.6.1953 1960 30.6.1961 31.8.1961 1961 1961 31.8.1962 15-19 189 167 129 79 141 149 44 20-24 341 397 361 358 358 332 256 25-29 271 383 375 358 384 349 277 30-34 356 332 362 312 318 299 209 35-39 265 230 203 159 225 206 125 40-44 170 70 72 36 66 98 39 45-49 28 5 4 1 3 8 2 Tot. 8100 7920 7530 6515 7475 7205 4625 Fert. a. Sources as Table 1. b. Adapted from Scragg (1958). c. Number of de jure canvassed Papuan women estimated to be of indicated age as at the middle of each period on the basis of the distribution of these women as at datum point date in each area. Distribution by age of mother at birth of the children born to these women during the periods indicated estimated on the basis of the difference in years between year of birth of mother and year of birth of child. Table 4 THE RATIO OF THE MEAN NUMBER OF CHILDREN EVER BORN @,) AND THE ESTIMATED AVERAGE CUMULATIVE FERTILITY CF) IN SOME NEW GUINEAN POPULATIONS@ Age Group | Schouten Islands Noemfoor Lower Waropen Nimboran Fak-Fak Moejoe 20-24 1.029 1.020 1.007 1.041 1.017 1.092 25-29 1.011 1.094 1.061 0.995 0.943 1.009 a. Values for P, and Py as in Table 1. Values for F, and F3 calculated as i-1 F, = y fiw f, using Brass's method and values for fi as reported in j=0 Table 3. COHORT HISTORICAL FERTILITY RATES OF THE DE JURE CANVASSED PAPUAN WOMEN IN THE SCHOUTEN ISLANDS? Table 5 Age at birth of children? Mean |Tot. Fert. Rate| No. of Cohort Âge | 15-19€ 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44€ | VET ; born rate period | women 1896-1900 | 60-64 0.25 0.30 0.28 0.24 0.13 0.04 16.20 | 5.95 1936-45 243 1901-1905 | 55-59 0.24 0.32 0.27 0.21 0.11 0.02 |5.85 | 5.95 1941-50 355 1906-1910 | 50-54 0.26 0.31 0.28 0.21 0.13 0.05 |6.20 | 6.55 1946-55 570 1911-1915 | 45-49 0.26 0.32 0.28 0.22 0.15 0.04 [6.35 | 7.25 1951-60 | 572 1916-1920 |- 40-44 0.25 0.33 0.29 0.26 0.19 (0.05) | 6.85 | 791 1921-1925 | 35-39 0.22 0.32 0.32 0.31 (0.13) | 912 1926-1930 | 30-34 0.21 0.34 0.36 (0.17) | 1202 1931-1935 | 25-29 0.19 0.38 (0.20) j 1151 1936-1940 | 20-24 0.17 (0.19) 1304 1941-1945 15-19 (0.05) 1029 a. Source as Table 1 b. Estimated as in Table 3 c. Including <15 and >44 respectively. 17€ Essai d'évaluation du niveau de la natalité et de la fécondité en Iran J=C. CHASTELAND Expert des Nations Unies Institut d'Etudes et de Recherches Sociales Université de Téhéran Comme beaucoup d'autres pays en voie de développement, l'Iran ne possède pas encore une organisation de l'Etat-Civil susceptible de lui fournir un enregistrement exhaustif des naissances et des décès. Ainsi de 1954 à 1956, on a compté successivement 661.586, 851.573 et 650,102 naissances..Le taux moyen de natalité pour cette période aurait été de 38 p.1000, Plus près de nous, pour les années 1961, 1962, et 1963, les naissances annuelles s'élèvent À 906.703, 837.254 et 904.347 et le taux moyen de natalité correspondant serait de 43 p.1000, L'irrégularité des séries, la faiblesse des taux,conduisent à ne pas utiliser ces données pour l'analyse de la natalité et de la fécondité. Aussi, c'est seulement à partir de quelques enquêtes et du recense- ment de 1956 qu'une évaluation du niveau de la natalité et de la fécondité sera proposée. Nous étudierons suocessivement les différentes sources dans l'ordre chronologique et suivant les informations qu'elles sont susceptibles de livrer dans le domaine qui nous intéresse. le L'enquête de 1950 Cette enquête effectuée dans 173 villages (1) de la région de Téhéran à fourni des statistiques sur l'histoire génésique de 1616 femmes dans les dix années précédant l'enquête. Le taux du natalité observé était de 51,4 Pp.1000 et le taux de fécondité générale de 242,9 p.1000, Les données recueil- tre ont permis en outre de mesurer les taux de fécondité légitime far fge et la dascendance finale des femmes arrivant à la fin de leur vie féconde, Taux de fécondité légitime par groupes d'âge 1940- e 1000 20-24 25-22 30-34 23539 40-44 45-49 395 370 325 255 130 20 La déscendance finale obtenue & partir de ces taux, pour les femmes mariées avant 20 ans, s'élevait à 7,5 enfants nés-vivants. 349 2e Le recensement de 1956 Le recensement de 1956 ne contient aucune statistique relative à la fécondité. Nous ne disposons que des oaraotéristiques d'£ge, de sere, et d'état matrimonial de la population. C'est donc à partir de méthodes indireotes que l'on peut parvenir à une estimation de la natalité et de la fécondité. Examinons tout d'abord la méthode utilisée pour évaluer les taux de fécondité l6gitimes et généraux par Êge. Pour les naissances 1951-1956 nous avons utilisé un effeotif corrigé, soit 890,400 (2). On peut le oom- parer avec les chiffres obtenus de l'Etat-Civil et cités précédemment. La ventilation des naissances par Êge de la mère a “ôté estimée de fagon approximative en utilisant les coefficients de pondération communément retenus dans les projections de naissances (3). On & pris 98 p.100 de l'en- semble des naissances des mères âgées de 10 à 49 ans puisque les coefficients de pondération ne concernent que les femmes de 15 à 44 ans. Enfin, l'effèctif moyen de la population féminine dans les années 1951-1956 a ét6 évalué à partir d'une rétro-projection de la population féminine ajustée de 1956, Tableau Caloul des teux de fécondité par âge Ages Effectifs moyens Naissances par Taux de fécondité (en p.1000) 1951- 1956 oupes d'âge Générale p.100 de femmes Iégitime (en milliers) Se milliers) mariées 15-19 820 34 41,5 43,4 95,6 20-24 724 235 324,6 85,7 378,8 25-29 633 235 371,2 91,0 407,9 30-34 555 201 362,2 91,5 395,8 35-39 484 134 276,9 88,0 314,7 40-44 420 34 81,0 82,0 98,8 Tous Ages 3.636 873 240,0 324,3 La déscendance finale des femmes mariées Égées de 20 À 44 ans atteint 8,0 enfants, ohiffre an peu supérieur à celui de l'enquête 1950. A partir des taux généraux de féconditS par êge, 11 est faoile de calouler le taux brut de reproductions R' = 3,60. Le taux net de reproduction peut & son tour être caloulé en appliquant aux femmes Êgées de 15 à 44 ans le régime de mortalité correspondant à une table de mortalité dans laquelle l'espérance de vie À la naissance serait de Eo = 42,5 ansj ce taux net est alors : R= 2,40. Une autre méthode pour évaluer le taux net de reproduotion est celle de l'indice de remplacement de Thompson (T) caloulé à partir du rapport 350 enfants / femme. dans la population stationnaire (F')(avec Eo = 42,5 ans) et dans la population observée (F) (4). p= L-044 = 2177 = 0,793 (5) P15=49 4.007 FL 0.4 - 80 = 0,370 115-49 2 , m E - 2,14 Le taux de natalité peut être évalué par différentes méthodes. En utilisant la relation suivante, on obtient une première estimation, F El = 2,140 x 100 = 50,5 p.1000 Eo 42,5 Une seconde estimation peut être caloulée en utilisant la méthode classique de l'inverse du taux de survie. Avec la table Eo = 42,5 ans, on obtient à partir de l'effectif moyen ajusté de 0.4 ans, une Évaluation des naissances 1951-1956. Le taux de natalité est alors de 49,4 ps 1000, Ces deux estimations sont l6gérement inférieures à celle de l'enquête de 1950, mais le degré d'approximation des données utilisées ne permet pas de tirer une conclusion quelconque en ce qui concerne une différence réelle d'intensité entre ces dates et ces populations. 3. L'enquét e e é 65-1966 Cette enquête effectuée en 1965 dans quatre districts d'Iran et en 1966 dans la ville de Téhéran (6) a touché près de 4,800 ménages ruraux et 2.800 ménages dans la capitale, Elle se proposait d'évaluer le niveau de la fécondité totale et actuelle 'des femmes mariées et d'analyser à Téhéran les attitudes à l'égard de la procréation, Nous ne traiterons pas ici de la fécondité actuelle, cette dernière faisant l'objet d'une autre communication (Da mais uniquement de la fécondité légitime totale en zones rurales et 4 Téhéran. . 351 Tableau 2 Nombre moyen d'enfants nés-vivents par femme mariée une fois Enquête rurale ( 1965) Enquête Téhéran (1966) Ages District District Distriot District Ensemble de de Torbat- de de des Kazeroun Heydarieh Shahsavar Hashtroud districts 19 ans et moins 0,9 0,9 0,6 0,6 0,8 0,9 20-24 2,6 2,3 2,0 2,1 2,3 2,3 25-29 4,3 4,1 3,7 3,8 4,0 3,6 30-34 6,2 5,7 5,1 5,6 5,6 4,7 35-39 7,2 7,1 6,4 6,6 6,8 5,6 40-44 1,7 7,3 7,3 6,8 1,3 5,1 45-49 7,9 1,5 1,7 1,4 7,6 6,0 Tous áges 4,6 4,5 4,5 4,2 4,4 3, 8 Ainsi dans les zones rurales, la taille de la famille complète est de 7,6 enfants. Lesdifférencesentre distriots sont assez faibles et.certaine- ment peu significativese Il faut considérer ces moyennes comme des minima, un certain sous-enregistrement, inévitable, en dépit de toutes les précautions prises, et qui trouve son origine dans la structure socio-culturelle de la population étudiée, minore sans doute quelque peu les chiffres réels, La taille des familles complètes est cependant bien supérieure à celle observée dans des populations du même type (Mysore 1950: 4,8) (8) mais du méme ordre que celle dos familles européennes pré-malthusiennes (France - Normandie 17e siècles 8,2 et Norvège 11874-18761 8,1) (8). Pour Téhéran, la baisse observée par rapport aux familles rurales est de prés de 20 p.100 pour les familles complètes. Cependant le chiffre moyen obtenu 6,0 enfants, est encore supérieur à celui observé à Mysore, ou à Calcutta: 4,7 (8). La baisse de la fécondité légitime totale à Téhéran .n'en est ainsi qu'd ses tout débuts. Dans l'enquête de Téhéran, à-la question "Quel est le nombre idéal d'enfants dans une famille"?, le chiffre moyen obtenu a été de 3,8. Comparé à la taille complète de la famille, il implique une baisse très sensible de la fécondité. En revanche il est du même ordre que le chiffre obtenu à Bengalore en 1950: 3,7 (8) ou À Santiago du Chili en 1959: 4,0 (9), alors que .le modèle idéal européen oscillé entre 2 et 3 enfants. Ce résultat est d'autant plus remarquable que seulement 30 p.100 des femmes interrogées déclaraient utiliser des moyens contraceptifs et qu’il n'y avait pas au moment de l'enquête de publicité ou d'encouragements officiels en faveur de la régulation des naissances, mais seulement quelques initiatives privées (10). 352 Dans l'enquête rurale et dans celle de Téhéran, les donn$es obtenues permettent un classement des femmes suivant l'Ége et le nombre d'enfants déjà nés. Ainsi on peut calculer parmi les femmes ayant un enfant, combien en auront n+ 1 et ainsi de suites Nous obtenons de cette façon la série des probabilités d'agrandissement des familles: Ai (11). Nous présentons les résultats obtenus pour les femmes âgées de 40 à 49 ans et ayant donc achevé, ou presque, leur vie féconde. Nous avons inolus dans le tableau suivant des données comparatives pour des populations européennes pré-malthusiennes et malthusiennes. Tableau 3 Probabilités d'agrandissement ai ( rang de naissance dérini par le nombre à d'enfants déjà nés ) Probabilités Iran.Zones Angleterre-Galles Téhéran 1966 France 1946 d'agrandisse- rurales 1965 1911 Femmes mariées Femmes mariées Femmes mar- ment femmes mariées une fois à moins une fois (Bge ies une une fois de 20 ans.(fige 45- 40 = 49 ans) fois (êge (âge 40-49 ans) 49 ans) 45 - 49 ans) ao 0,974 0,960 0,965 0,824 al 0,993 - 0,973 0,974 0,690 a2 0,985 0,967 0,934 0,590 az 0,964 0,962 0,835 0,588 84 0,935 0,950 0,878 0,605 as 0,928 0,939 0,818 0,628 ag 0,856 0,929 0,750 0,625 ag 0,657 0,875 0,567 0,628 ag 0,564 0,813 0,525 ajo 0,478 0,754, 0,481 La série des probabilités d'agrandissement concernant les zones , rurales se situe de façon constante au-dessus de celle de Téhéran, et l'ecart s'accentue à partir de a3, mais si nous effectuons la comparaison á une popu- lation .pre-malthusienne européenne (Angleterre-Galles) (11), nous constatons que. la valeur des ai est identique en zonesrurales à celles de l'Angleterre jusqu'au rang a5, et qu’ensuite les valeurs sont plus faibles, Pour Téhéran, la comparaison avec une population de type malthusien (France 1946) montre que la série téhéranaise est toujours supérieure, (12). Compte tenu des résultats cités plus haut, on peut considérer que la population des zones rurales vit sous un régime de fécondité naturelle. Dès lors, on peut déduire la proportion des femmes stériles, à partir du complément à 1,000 de la valeur des a0, Cette proportion est égale à 2,6 p.100 353 en zones rurales et est proche de celle observée en Angleterre-Galles 4p.l00. Dans l'ouvrage cité (11) des valeurs de 3 p.100 sont avanobes pour la plupart des pays pré-malthusiens pour lesquels des statistiques exactes existent, Conclusion et vue d'ensemble Les niveaux de la natalité et de la fécondité peuvent Être maintenant estimés de façon assez précise à partir de statistiques cependant partielles. Le régime démographique dans lequel vit la très grande majorité de la population iranienne est du type pre-malthusien et.1l ne semble pas qu'il y ait, du moîns pour les zones rurales du pays, d'évolution dans le sens d'une baisse de la fécondité entre 1950 et 1966, Toutefois les résultats préliminaires d'une enquête effectuée à Téhéran, montrent pour cette dernière ville une baisse assez sensible de la fécondité. Encore faut-il souligner que le niveau auquel se situe la fécondité à Téhéran est sans commune mesure avec celui observé dans des populations de type malthusiene L'enquête faite à Téhéran eur les attitudes à l'égard de la proorsa- tion, et plus spécialement les questions concernant la taille idéale de la famille, indique qu'il existe un écart entre la taille idéale de la famille et la taille des familles complètes observées. En conséquences, on pourrait s'attendre à une baisse de la fécondité dans cette ville si des oonditions favorables à la régulation des naissances s'y développaient. Bib aphie 1) M.B, MASHAYEKHI, P.A, MEAD et G.S. HAYES, Some demographio aspects of a Rural Area in Iran, the Milbank Memorial Fund Quaterly. Vol, XXXI, No. 2, April 1953 et L. HENRY, Aspeot démographique d'une région rurale d'Iran. Population 1953, No. 3. 2) M.AMANI. Essai d'évaluation du sous-enrégistrement des enfants de moins de un an dans le recensement de la population de l'Iran de 1956. Communication B/6/428 au Congrès Mondial de la Population de Belgrade 1965. 3) Méthodes de projections démographiques par sexe et per âge. Etude démographique: No. 25. ST/SOA/Ser. A. Nations Unies, New York,1957, VII +85 p. 4) W.S. THOMPSON, Population Problems 5) J-C. CHASTELAND, ..AMANI et O.A, PUECH. La population de l'Iran. Pergpeotives d'évolution 1950-1986, I.E.R.S., Téhéran, 1966, VIII+ 312 pe 6) J-0. CHASTELAND (Sous la direction de) Enquête sur la fécondité des femmes mariées dans quatres zones rurales d'Iran et à Téhéran. I.B.R.S. Téhéran (A paraître). 354 7) Mi AMANI. Féoondité actuelle des femmes marióes dans quatre zones rurales d'Iran. (Communication pour le Congrès de l'I.U.S.S.P,, Sydney 1967). 8) "Tiers Monde". Sous-développement et développement. I.N.E.D., P.U.F. 1961, Paris XXX +393 p. 9) L. TABAH et R. SAMUEL, Resultades preliminares de una enquesta de fecundidad y de actitudes relativas a la formación de la familia en Santiago de Chile.C.E,L.A.D.ESantiago 1961, Roneot, 155 p. 10) N. MAROUFI-BOZORGI, Some demographic characteristics of women seeking for contraceptive advices in one of the Southern clinics of Teheran. I.E.R.S. Téhéran (Communication pour le Congrés de 1'I.U.S.S.P., Sydney 1967). 11) L. HENRY, Fécondité des mariages. Nouvelle méthode de mesure. I.N.E.De PoUeFe, Paris, 1953, 180 Pe 12) R. PRESSAT. L'Analyse démographique. P.U.F., Paris 1961, XI+ 402 p. 355 FERTILITY LEVELS AID DIFFERENTIALS IN THAILAID by + Thip Chalothorn, Junior Statistician National Statistical Office, Bangkok, Thailand A, Introduction 1. Fertility levels in Thailend have been estimated for several past periods by denogranhers from the United lations end by others for the purposes of making population protections and other analyses. Difficulties in determining the precise level of fertility are due to laci: of reliable demographic statistics, The government is however, aware of this problem and has recently encouraged the Hational Statistical Office to take a Survey of Population Change in order to measure more pre- cisely the levels of fertility, mortality and so forth, The preliminary results of the survey, which was taken in 1964-1965 are refer to in this paper. 2. Regarding fertility differentials, there have been a number of studies. The first was attempted in 1959 using the 1947 population census data with child woman ratios as the only possible index as data were not available for computing other measures of fertility, The second and the third were made in 196% and 1963 using the 1960 census data. Here not only child woman ratios but also children ever born were used as the fertility indices but no detailed analysis was made of the factors affecting fertility, A further analysis was made in 1965*by using not only the 1960 census data but also employing some additional data based on the 1964-1965 Survey of Population Change and the 1963 Census of Acri- culture, + The author is a member of the National Statistical Office, the opénions expressed are her own, and do not necessarily represent those of the 30, Also, the author is greatly indebted to Professor Dorothy S. Thomas and Professor John D, Durand, University of Pennsylvania for their advice, and Dr, C, Chandrasekaran, United Nations Regional Demo- graphic Advisor at ECAFE, Bangkok, for his comments, and Iiss Patience Lauriat, USAID Demographic Statistics Advisor, Bangkok, for her coonera- tion in providing data, 356 B. The Accuracy of Data and Adjustment for some Errors 3. The accuracy of age data was found to be satisfactory as judged by lyers Index of 4.6 and 5,2 for meles and females respectively and the value of Joint Scores about 12,9 which are lower than those of many ásian countries, Data on children ever born however, were found to be affected by errors which may partly be due to the failure of enumerators to follow instructions on the census schedule properly, thus leading to under re- porting of childlessness. As the error was quite high when compared with other countries, the method of adjustment for the childlessness error, susgested by El-Badry was adopted after it had been determined that this method can be applied to our data. Ce Tertility Levels derived from the Census, Survey and Registration 4. The level of fertility according to the registration of birth rates of Thailand before the Second World War was about 35 per 1000 population. in 1937 and decreased considerably to about 23-24 during the war 1944-1948. Since then birth rates have, increased gradually from 26.8 in 1950 to 35.4 in 1963, The United Nations and other studies have indicated that the reliability of registration data in Thailand is not high. By and large, in most of the developing countries registration data are not reliable and Thailand is no exception, Therefore, fertility rates derived from the rezistration cannot be of a clue in determining the precise level of fer- tility. 5. According to the preliminary results of the Survey of Population Change, birth rates during July 1964 to June 1965 were about 41.8. This rate has been already adjusted for the unmatched events between the re- cistration and the survey. However, the survey result is somewhat lower than other estimates which were around 45-46 per 1000 population, Such a low rate of the survey may call for a consideration of the extent of under estimation ratier than of a declining birth rate. 6. There were three studies that attempted to estimate fertility levels from the 1960 census data. The first, study was made by Das Gupta and others; the second by the United Nations, and the third by Chalothorn, The methods of those three estimates may be indicated as follows, a. The United Nations estimated the crude birth rate to be about 46 and the gross reproduction rate about 3.2 (by the reverse survival method from the number of children aged 5-9 enumerated in 1960- census. ) Thus estimates were based on the assumption that the age pattern of fer- tility shown by Thailand's incomplete birth registration statistics was approximately correct. Therefore births in each age group were estimated by distributing total births according to the proportion of births from the registration in each age category data. 357 b, Das Gupta and others have used different methods of esti- mation, The graphical method has been used to convert the numbers of children ever born to the numbers of live births and then adjusted for the recall lapse for each year of age of women above age 15, This method yield ed a crude birth rate of about 44.5 and a gross reproduction rate of about 3.2. The reverse survival method, and the dependent estimates of vital rates from the census statistics and registration were also tried in this study, leading to the conclusion that the greatest consistency of fertility, mortality and rate of growth was found when the crude birth rate is around 44.9. Ce Another estimate was made by Chalothorn with the aim of using a different technique of estimates and adjustment of data so that a further estimate of fertility rates by regions can be obtained, The graphical and TE thematical methods: fitting logistic curve and the poly- nomial function have been applied to convert the numbers of children ever born Irom the census data to estimated numbers of live births, The graphicel method gave a more satisfactory result than the mathematical methods, However, the graduates data by the graphical method and adjust- ment of fertility rates here, are different from the studies of Das Gupta and others in that first the childlessness error was adjusted before graduating data and second the number of children ever born in each age group was maintained approximately unchanged, that is it was controlled by the original results while smoothing the curvbOoO-2=0000-4 -— NOOO =v OO . . DOO+44HNDOO . . e. . PFOO-NOOO . NOMPN-.2J000 -— o CO, 0DOw = . . OI > YWOLWwM PHILIPPINES (1963) -20 20-24 29-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45 & above All ages - 30.0 VU OWAOS-O . SON DS ON — — N Pu 000 Dep OONH Ou Se coms wo OP Os Pwo O wp OOM = . NU nN nN - > — IP OO: WwOM . . o — -~ -— THATLAND (1963) -20 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45 & above All ages — . . ID av . NII0-10 ES SESE) ONSISASUV No 7e CO-OP . ON -— © OOM = o -— NOOO: WO IWS QUIN NOOO =wwu=p N= BUI ON SOONWWOP wa Pu nN +OWUA0CONOP — o OI uw ou .. . — — a denotes less than 0.1 per cent. Note: The category of 'unknown' births are excluded from the table. Data for India relate to rural areas, and in the Philippines, the birth order is based on previous live births and still births. Source: United Netions, Demographic Year Book, 1959 and 1965. For India, the figures are based on Table 4.13 in the National Sample Survey No. 54, Vital Rates, p.30. 12. In a low fertility country as Japan, the model age groups in which the first, second and third order births occur are 20-24, 25-29 and 30-34 respectively. In India, three-fourths of the first births occur quite early before twenty-one years; in the Philippines and Thailand, about one-fifth 394 of the first births takes place among mothers below twenty years as compared to just three per cent in Japan. Similarly, the second and third births occur at a relatively young age in the three high fertility countries. Using the basic data underlying Table 3, it is possible to calculate the mean age at first birth and so on. For India (rural), it is about 19 years that is at a much younger age than even in the other high fertility countries like Thailend (23 years) and the Philippines (23 years). In contrast, the first child is born at the age of 25 years in Japan. 13. These differences in age at the first or second or third birth from country to country are in themselves not of serious concern if the fertility performance ceases or slows down after the age at which the third birth occurs. But, this is not the case in these countries, and the fourth birth is found to occur, as the previous three births, after the normal interval of about two years i.e., at the age of 28 years in India. Tg mean age at fourth birth is 29 years in both Thailand and the Philippines. This age is comparatively high about 32 years in Japan. 14. Besides the occurrence of higher order births at a relatively early age in India, the Philippines and Thailand, it is observed in Table 3 that the young age groups make a very large contribution to total births than mothers of the corresponding age groups in Japan. Thus, women between 22 to 31 years in India bear higher order births amounting 23 per cent of the total births in a year. Similarly, the excess births among females aged 25 to 34 years constitute about 25 per cent of the total births in the Philippines and Thailand. In Japan, this proportion approximated 11 per cent only among females aged 25 to 34 years in 1957. 15. In this manner, as shown in Table 3, at most age groups the proportion of fourth, fifth and higher order births to the total births in the high fertility countries is found greater than that obtained in Japan. The difference is found to be more at the younger age groups than, say, after 35 years. Higher Order Births and Fertility Control 16. Arising out of this analysis are some implications bearing on fertility control in the ECAFE countries. It is now recognized, as the censuses conducted in 1960s had convincingly shown an unprecedented increase of people in these countries, that the population growth must be reduced as early as possible. Towards this goal, different measures are already under way in a number of nations, some laying stress on family planning and some on family limitation. The latter aim at elimination of all higher order births. In the first phase of drive to limit family size, if all the sixth and above order births are shun by the couples, the birth rate will drop by approximately 20 per cent. At the other extreme, if births beginning fron (3) For the Philippines, figures relate to 1957 and is computed from Table 19 in United Nations, Demographic Year Book 1959, pp. 346-349. 395 the fourth order are avoided, the decline in fertility will be spectacular about 40 per cent (see Table 2). In reality it is, however, unlikely that all the fourth end above order births or for that matter, even all the sixth and above order births will be avoided by the people, and therefore, the impact of reduction of the higher order births will be to lower birth rate by 20 to 40 per cent. 17. A likely figure in this range mey be inferred by assuming that the pattern of higher order births in future in the other Asian countries is the same as that found in low fertility areas. The result indicates that the reduction of higher order births, in general, will bring about a fall in the fertility level to the extent of roughly 25 per cent. 18. This reduction will, however, take considerable time and therefore, attention must also be focussed in these countries to bring down the birth rate through other means as well like the postponement of marriages, long intervals of spacing and reduction of even lower order births during the critical transition period. 396 397 INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR THE SCIENTIFIC STUDY OF POPULATION SYDNEY CONFERENCE 21st - 25th August 1967 SESSION V(b) "FERTILITY CHANGE AND FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAMES" Moderator : J.C. Caldwell Friday, 25th August, 1967 9.00 a.m. to 10.45 elle 398 Some findings from family planning data of the National Sample Survey Murari Majumdar Indian Statistical Institute 1. The accelerated pate of growth of India's population with a declining mortality trend has imparted an added importance to the question of tke probable future course of fertility and of methods of influencing it. A study of recent trends and differen- tials and of causes underlying them would be particularly pertinent in such a situation and would be sxpected to provide pointers to the future. 2. In the National Sample Survey (SS) which is a continuing series of socio-economic surveys conducted by the Government of India, fertility has been one of the subjects of enquiry from an early round and an enquiry on family planning was also condudted in the urban areas of India during the sixteentk round (July 1960- June 1961). 3. The estimates of the birth rate ac obtained from the NSS do not skow any definite trend, the adjusted rates for the rural areas coming to 42 or thereabouts from tke seventh (1953 - 1954) and fourteenth (1958 - 59) rounds—/. Though in the fourth round (April-September 1952), the number of children born at longest durations afier marriage, necessarily relating to .old Y Ajit Tas Gupta, Determination of Fertility Level and Trend in Defective Registration Areas, Bulletin of the Interna- tional Statistical Institute, 36, 127-136 (1958); Vital Rates, National Sample Survey,. 54, Government of India, (1962); Preliminary Estimates of Birth and Death Rates and of the Rate of Growth of Population, National Sample Survey, 48, Government of India (1961); Murari Majumdar, Estimation of Vital Rates in the Indian National Sample Survey, World Population Conference, Belgrade (1965). 400 cokeorts, was nol appreciably different in the urban areas from those in. the rural, the annual birth rates obtained from later rounds came to be consistently lower in the urban areas, the fertility rate for all women as also of married women, particu- larly at advanceú ages, also being appreciabiy lower. 3/ 4. In the urban Family Planning Survey in the sixteenth round, information was collected on attitude tc family size and imowleäge anû practice of family plahning as also total number of children born and living together witk certain demographic and rocio-economic particulars of the couples. The information was collected only wken both husband and wife were living and they were not divorced or permanently separated. As the investigators for the survey belonged to the regular cadre of the NSS and were all male, only husbands were contacted and data on attitudes and wnowledge of family planning pertained only to husbands. 5. The average number of children born to all women aged 47 and over wto might be taken to have completed their fertility came to 6.5. Of all the characteristics studied, education of wife was found to have the greatest bearing upon the level of fertility and the differences by wife's education were quite marked and gubstantial. The pattern of change was not always distinct when the number of children born was cross-classified by wife's age and educational standard of husbands except when the latter kad at least passed the Intermediate stage (after 2 years at college). However, there was a decreasing trend in the number of children born with progress in educational standard of husbands when all couples irrespective of wife's age were taken into account but as Table I shows the differences are considerably narrowed, except for the highest educational category if the average number of children is standardised by adopting for all the groups the age distribution of wives for illiterate husbands. 6. If education of wife instead of husband's is considered, tke average number of children is found to be systematically smaller, for all age groups 22-26 and above, with progress in educational attainment starting with the middle stage (after seven years at school). The average number of children over all age groups also shows a distinct fall with rise in educational standard after the middle stage and the relative position is not 2/ Ajit Das Gupta, ot al., Couple Fertility, National Sample Survey, 1 , Government of India ISS 3/ Vital Rates, loc. cit. 401 materially altered even after standardization with the age Cistri- bution of the illiterate group being adopted as the standard. If women aged 47 years and over are considered, the decline is even more marked but the numbers of women in the highest educational categories are very small. 7. The level of fertility ultimately reached by women who hac passed the reproductive stage is not reflected in the number of children considered ideal by husbands (Table 2). The differen- ial by education is also quite small, though there is a slightly decreasing trend witk progress in eCucational standard. Though the relationship with age is a little stronger, tke number considered ideal is not only far below the total number of children ultimately born but is considerably smaller than even the number living at advanced ages. The number rises higher wken it is related directly to the number of children living but still the ideal number varies within a narrow range and though there is a consistent rise with increase in tke number of children living, the maximum value comes to 3.9 when the number of children living is 6 or above compared to 2.9 for husbands without any children and 3.2 for all husbands. 8. In tke schedule, knowledge of family planning was taken to mean information, however superficial, on any specific method of family limitation otker then complete abstinence and was distinguished from awareness of family limitation when such information on any specific method was lacking and in what follows, the term has been used in the former sense. The practice of family planning, as referred to here, also relates to tke adoption of any method other then total abstinence. 9. The percentage of husbands having knowledge of any specific method came to 27.4 and though there was variation with age, it was not large over the greater part of the married life spare (Table 3). The proportion varied between 29 and 32 per cent in the age range 27-46 years and decreased progressively at both younger and older ages, coming to 13.9 at €2 years and above. The comparative evenness of the distribution, if the small number of husbands below 17 years are excluded, might, in some measure, be due to the concept of knowledge whereby even vague idea about any particular method was taken as knowledge of family planning. But, even then, the smaller percentages at both older and younger ages point to comparative ignorance at these ages. The propor- tions at various ages, who had ever practised any method, show a sharper variation whick is brought out more clearly by the percentages of husbands who had ever used any family limitation method among those who had knowledge of the same. The proportion of husbands, who hed practised any method, was maximum - only 8.4 per cent in the age group 42-46 and varied between 7 and 8 402 per cent at 32-41 years. The sharply declining proportions with progresaively younger age group may be due to lack of interest as spacing is likely to be a far less important consideration than the limitation of the total number of births. However, the percentage of husbands who had ever used any contraceptive method was 6.8 among those wko had 3 children born to them but it dropped to 6.1 for those who had 4-5 children compared to 6.5 for those with 2 children and 3.7 for those with only 1 child. Also, among the couples who had used any particular method, 50 to 60 per cent had done so for the first time when they hac no children ar only one child born to them, sterilization only being excepted, though even this had reportedly been resorted to by husband as also by wife in more than 30 per cent cases when the number of children born had not exceeded one. The report on timing of practice might have been affected by lapse of memory but tke question also probably involves an important aspect of the attitude towards children which depends upon age of husbands. When all husbands with wife under 45 years of age were considered, it was found that for lower orders of living children, the percentage not desiring additional children sharply increased with age starting with the age group 37-41 years. Thus, among husbands with 1 child living, the percentage not desiring additional children came to 21.1, 38.6 and 44.9 respectively for the age groups 37-41, 42-46 and 47 and over compared to 9.6 for 32-36 years while with 2 children living, the percentage rose to 44.6 for the age group 37-41 years and over 50 per cent at higher ages compared to 28.9 for the age group 32-36. For husbands having no children, the percentage was around 7 per cent in the age range 37 years and over. 10. It was previously found that educational attainment at higher levels, and particularly of wife, was inversely related to fertility. The percentage of husbands having knowledge of any contraceptive method other than total abstinence is also found to increase systematically with progress in education (Table 4). The percentage of couples who had ever used any method rises even more sharply with education. Also, for a particular educational stand- ard, the percentage is higher when it relates to the wife instead of to the husband, though at higher educational levels of the wife, the proportion who had ever practised moves somewhat erratically. As the number of wives relative to husbands is progressively much smaller, the higher the educational standard, such a pattern would be expected but what is of particular interest is that the propor- tion of couples who had ever practised any method touches a higher level - more than 40 per cent, for graduate wives compared to 32.7 per cent for graduate husbands. 403 ANNEX Table 1-: Number of children born alive per couple by educational standard of husband and wife : NSS 16th round, urban, 1960-61. no.of sample blocks : 2,115 no.of sample households : 12,666 husband's number of wife's number of educational children born educational children born standard actual standar- standard actual standar- dised dised (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) illiterate 4.0 4.0 illiterate 3.8 3.8 literate but literate but . - below primary 13.9 3.9 below primary 3.3 3.9 primary 3.6 4.0 primary 3.5 3.8 (5 years of school) middle 3.5 3.7 middle 2.8 3.1 (7 years of school) matriculate 3.3 3.6 matriculate 2.3 2.6 intermediate 3.0 3.2 intermediate 1.6 1.9 (2 years at and above college )and above Source : This and the following tables are based on Tables with Notes on Family Planning, National Sample Survey, 116 (in press). 404 Table 2 : Number of children considered ideal by husband by Lis educational standard, age and numbcr of children living NSS 16th round, urban, 1960-61. no.of sample blocks : 2,115 no.of sample housekolas : 12,666 husband's no.con- husband's no. con- noc. of no.con- educational sidered age (years) sidered children sidered standard ideal ideal living ideal (1) 2 3) (ay 5) [6 primary and 3.3 17-21. 2.9 0 2.8 below 22 - 26 3,1 1 2.9 middle 3.2 27 - 31 3.2 2 3.1 32 - 41 3.3 3 3.3 matriculate 3.1 42 - 51 3.4 4-5 3.6 intermediate 3.0 62 and 3.1 above and above above Table 3 : Percontage of husbands kaving knowledge of and having practised family limitation methods otker than total abstinence by age : NSS 16th round urban, 1960-61. no.of sample blocks : 2,115 no.of sample households : 12,666 ' percentage percentage is 8 ) having having SP 5j x 100 ae \ycars knowledge practised col. 1) (2) (3) (4) below 17 1.2 - 17 - 21 19.9 1.3 6.7 22- 26 27.1 2.5 9.2 27 - 31 29.4 5.0 17.0 32 - 36 32.1 7.2 22.5 37 - 41 30.1 7.9 26.2 47 - 51 24.5 6.6 26.8 52 — 61 21,1 2.7 13.0 62 and above 13.9 1.0 T.4 all ages 27.4 5.3 19.5 405 Table 4 : Percentage of husbands having knowledge of and having practiged family limitation methods other than total abstinence by educational standard of husband and of wife : NSS 16th round urban, 1960-61 no.of sample blocks : 2,115 no.of sample households : 12,666 husband's percen- percen- wife's percen- percen- educational tage tage education- tage hav-tage hav- standard having having al stand- ing ing prac- kmowled- practi- ard kmowiedg tised ge sed (2 (2) (3) (4) (9) (6) illiterate 12.6 0.8 illiterate 17.4 1.7 literate but literate but below primary 20.4 2.2 below primary 37.1 7.2 primary 28.0 3.4 primary 50.2 11.8 middle 38.3 7.6 middle 62.7 20.3 matriculate 57.9 16.8 matriculate 76.9 36.0 intermediate 63.0 24.2 intermediate 78.7 28.5 graduate and 78.7 32.7 graduate and 80.8 240.6 above above all standards = 27.4 5.3 all standatds 27.4 5.3 406 PREGNANCY RATES IN THE EVALUATION OF FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAMS. by C. H. S. JAYEWARDENE, LECTURER, UNIVERSITY OF CEYLON. 1. The conventional measure of contraceptive effectiveness is the number of pregnancies per 100 woman years of contraceptive exposure (1). Termed the Pregnancy Rate (2), this measure is calculated from the formula R = 1200N/M where R is the Pregnancy Rate per 100 woman years of exposure, N the number of pregnancies, and M the total months of exposure (3). This measure has been used to assess the efficacy of contraceptives but in recent times, with the analysis of the literature, a model has been designed vhich permits the assessment of the extent of effective mse of contraceptives by a population (4). Pregnancy rates of 80 per 100 woman years of exposure and above have been found typical of non-contracepting populations (5). Rates of the order of 24 - 40 per 100 woman years of exposure could be expected for rural populations initiating fertility control (6). Rates ranging from 8 - 16 per 100 woman years of exposure have been mmmm observed in urban couples attending family planning clinics in the United States of America (7) and the highly motivated individuals, whether using the vaginal diaphragm or the condom, oral contraceptives of the progestin type or undergoing sterilisation, have had rates between O and 4 (8). On the basis of these observations it is possible to conclude that a population practising contraception with a high level of efficacy would have a pregnancy rate of 0 - 3.0 per 100 women years of elapsed time (9), with a moderate level of efficacy a rate of 3.1 - 15,0; with a low level of efficacy a rate of 15.1 - 30.0; and with a neglegible level of efficacy a rate of 30.1 - 50.0. A non-contracepting population would have a pregnancy rate of 50.1 - 100.0 per 100 woman years of elapsed time. 2. These figures give an indication of the extent of contraceptive practises when the entire community is taken into consideration or when only those completing fertility is considered. When the pregnancy rates are for birth cohorts that have not as yet completed fertility the measure denoting various levels of contraceptive practise must necessarily vary. For example, a woman married at the age of 12 having had one child immediately after marriage and practising contraception successfully thereafter would have a pregnancy rate per 100 woman years of elapsed time af 33.3 at theage of 15, 12.50 at age 20, 7.7 at age 25 and 5.5 at age 30 - pregnancy rates that do not denote the high level of 407 efficiency with which she practises contraception. A model must consequently be devised which gives the range of pregnancy rates for each birth cohort at each age grouping for ‘the various levels of efficiency of contraceptive practise. 3. In devising this model there are two factors that have to be taken into consideration. First, how many children would a woman have at different times of her married life if she fell into each of the groups practising contraception at different levels of effectiveness. Second, what is the proportion of women in each age group getting married while in the different age groups. 4. A woman falling into the group practising contraception with a high level of contraceptive effectiveness (with a maximum pregnancy rate of 3.0 per 100 woman years of elapsed time) ‘would have a child once every 33 years, so thet if such a woman had her first child immediately after marriage, she would continue to have had only that child till she remained married 34 years. Similarly, a woman falling into the second group practising contraception with a moderate degree of contraceptive effectiveness ( with a maximum pregnancy rate of 15 per 100 woman years of elapsed time) would have a child once every 6.7 years and hence would have, if she had her first child shortly after marriage, her second child after 7.7 years of married life, her 3rd child after 14.4 years, her 4th child after 21.1 years, her 5th child after 27.8 years and ber 6th child after 34.5 years. 5. As the model is being devised for 5 year birth cohorts, the number of children a woman would have had at 5 year intervals could be calculated and a table such as table 1 obtained, In this calculation it has been assumed that the duration of marriage in the age group that a woman married is 3 years, as a woman getting married in a particular age group could remain in that age group 0 - 5 years. 6. In each age group there are women who have married in the different age groups and consequently the number children born to the women and the number of years spent in the marrted state of women in any age group varies. In Ceylon, married women in the age group 10 - 14 years old are.married while in this age group. Of those married in the age group 15 - 19 years old, 1 is married while in the age group 10 - 14 years old for every 4 married while in the age group 15 - 19 years old, Married persons in Ceylon marry while in the age groups 10 - 14, 15 - 19, 20 - 24 and 25 - 29 in the ration 1:4:3:1. When these factors are tkken into considerátion,mm the celculation of the number of children that will be born to woman in a particular age cobort involves the consideration of a different number of women for each cohort as will be seen from table 2. + 408 Table 1. Number of Children born to a Woman according to the Level of Contraceptive Effectiveness and the Period Married. PERIOD LEVEL OF CONTRACEPTIVE EFFECTIVENESS MARRIED High Moderate Low Neglegible O - 4 years 1 1 1 2 - years 1 2 3 4 10 - 14 years 1 2 5 7 15 - 19 - y ears 1 3 6 9 20 - 24 years 1 4 8 12 25 - 29 years 1 4 10 14 30 - 34 years 2 5 11 17 Table 2. Number of Married Women in each Age Cohort according to Age at Marriage. AGE AGE AT MARRIAGE COHORT 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 Total Years Years Years Years 10 - 1< Years 1 - - - - + 15 - 19 Years 1 4 - - 5 20 - 24 Years 1 4 3 - 8 25 - 29 Years 1 4 3 1 9 30 - 34 Years 1 4 3 1 9 35 - 39 Years 1 4 3 1 9 40 - 44 Years 1 4 3 1 9 409 7. Married women in the age group 10 - 14 years old would have been all married 0 - 4 years and consequently would have 1, 1, 1, or 2 children depending on the group of contraceptive users into which they fall. In the age group 15 - 19 years áld, 1 of every 5 women would have been married 5 - 9 years (married while in the age group 10 - 14 years) and these persons would have 1, 2, 3, or 4 children depending on the group of contraceptive users into which they fall. The remaining 4 women would have been married O - 4 years and they together would have 4, 4, 4, or 8 children according to the group of contraceptive users into which they fall. The five women in this age group would consequently have 5, 6, 7 or 12 children according to the group of contraceptive users into which they fall. Ehmxfimwm 8. The five women would have spent a total of 20 years in the married state - the 4 women marrying in the age group 15 - 19 years living in that state for a total of 12 years ( 3 x 4 ) and the woman marrying in the age group 10 - 14 years l¥¥ing in that state for 8 years. Similarly the total number of children women in a particular age cohort would have if they fell into the different groups of women practising contraception with different degrees of efficacy could be calculated and the number of years that the women involved in these calculations would have lived in the married state could also be calculated. The figures for Ceylon are given in Table 3. 9. Dividing the figures in each square of each total row by the corresponding number of years spent in the married state (last column) and nultiplying this figure by 100 we obtain a set of figures which gives the maximum pregnancy rate per 100 woman years of elapsed time for women of different § age groups practising contraception at varying levels of effectiveness. The figures are also à statement of the proportion of women in a group who would become pregnantx every year, The figures give us a model (Table 4) which permit us to assess the effectiveness of contraceptive practise for different birth cohorts. Thus if m the women in the age group 15 - 19 years hawea pregnancy rate of 20.0 per 100 woman years of elapsed time, they would be practising contraception with a high level of effectiveness. If on the other hand their rate is 65.0 they would be a non-contracepting group. 410 Table 3. Number of Children Born to and Number of Years Spent Married by Women in the Different Age Groups Marrying while in the Different Age Groups. AGE AGE AT LEVEL OF CONTRACEPTIVE NUMBER YEARS GROUP MARRIAGE EFFECTIVENESS OF SPENT High Moderate Low Neglegible WOMEN MARRIED 10-14 10-14 1 1 1 2 1 3 Total 1 1 1 2 1 3 15-19 10-14 1 2 3 4 1 8 15-19 4 4 4 8 4 12 Total 5 6 7 12 5 20 20-24 10-14 1 2 5 7 1 13 15-19 4 8 12 16 4 32 20-24 3 3 3 6 3 9 Total 8 13 20 29 8 54 25-29 10-14 1 3 6 9 1 18 15-19 4 8 20 28 4 52 20-24 3 6 9 12 3 24 25-29 1 1 1 2 1 3 Total 9 18 36 51 9 97 30-34 10-14 1 4 8 12 1 23 15-19 4 12 24 36 4 72 20-24 3 6 15 21 3 39 25-29 1 2 3 4 1 8 Total 9 24 50 73 9 142 35-39 10-14 1 4 10 14 1 28 15-19 4 16 32 48 4 92 20-24 3 9 18 27 3 54 25-29 1 2 5 7 1 13 Total 9 31 65 96 9 187 40-45 10-14 1 5 11 17 1 33 15-19 4 16 40 56 4 112 20-24 3 12 24 36 3 69 25-29 1 3 6 8 1 18 Total 9 36 81 118 9 232 411 Table 4. Pregnancy Rates for the Different Age Cohorts according to the Level of Contraceptive Effectiveness AGE LEVEL OF CONTRACEPTIVE EFFECTIVENESS NON GROUP High Moderate Low Neglegible CONTRACEPTORS 10-14 0-33.3 0-33.3 0-33.3 33.4-66.7 66.8-100.0 15-19 0-25.0 25.1-30.0 30.1-35.0 35.1-60.0 60.1-100.0 20-24 0-14.8 14.5-24.0 24.1-37.0 37.1-53.7 53.8-100.0 25-29 0- 9.3 9.4-18,6 18.7-37.0 37.1-52.6 52.7-100.0 30-34 0- 6.4 6.5-16.9 17.0-35.2 35.3-51.4 51.5-100.0 25-39 0- 4,9 5.0 -16.6 16.,7-34.8 34.9-51x4 51.5-100.0 40-44 0- 3.9 4,0-15.5 15.6-34.8 34.9-50.9 51.0-100.0 45+ 0- 3.0 3.1-15.0 15.1-30.0 30.1-50.0 50.1-100.0 Noke : Rokes ave per 100 Woman years of elapæd time NOTES. (1) R.G. Potter: Family Limitation in the United States. Population Studies. XIV 40-54 (1960) R.K. Stix and F.W. Notestein: Wilkins Co. Baltimore. (1963) C. Tietze: XVI 31-37 ( (2) The Pregnancy Rate has also been used to describe the number of pregnencies per 100 computed ovulations. History of Population. Controlled Fertility. ancy Rates and Birth Rates. EON Williams and Population Studies. See R. Pearl: Oxford University Press. Another measure used in this connection is the Coefficient of Fecundity New York. The Natural 1939 (the number of conceptions divided by the woman years of exposure to risk multiplied by 1000). conjugate seconda l'eta. Rev. de 1'Inst. See L.Livi: Sulla fecondita della donna Int. de Stat. III 380-387 In recent times the distinction is made between Pregnancy Rates per Exposure Time and Pregnancy Rates per Elapsed Time. op cit. See C. Tietze: 412 (3) In the calculation of the total months of exposure the following points were considered: (i) Time spent in the married state. The number of months between the age at marriage and the present age or age 45 (whichever was less) making allowances for a) time spent after dissolution of marriage by death or divorce if the event occurred before the woman was 45 years of age; (b) time spent between marriages. (ii) Pregnancies ending in a) live birth - non exposure 10 months per pregnancy; > still birth - non exposure 8 months per pregnancy; and c) abortion - non exposure 4 months per pregnancy. (4) C. Tietze: opcit. (5) R.K. Stix: Comparative Appraisal of Three Contraceptive Services. J. Amer. Med. Ass. CXVIII 283-290 (1942) G.W. Beebe: Contraception and Fertility in the Southern Appalachians. Williams and Wilkins Co. Baltimore. (1942) C. Tietze and C.J. Gamble: The Condom as a Contraceptive Method in Public Health Work. Human Fertility IX 97-111 (1942) (6) C. Tietze: op cit. (7) C. Tietze: The Clinical Effectiveness of Contraceptive Methods. Sixth International Conference on Planned Parenthood. New Delhi. 275-282.(1959) C. Tietze, D.N. Pai, C.E. Taylor and C.J. Gamble: A Family Plannin Service in Rural Puerto Rico. Amer. J. Obstet. Gyn. LXXXI 174-182 (1961) (8) G. Pincus, J. Rock and C.R. Garcia: Field Trials with Norethynodrel as an Oral Contraceptive. Sixth International Conference on Planned Parenthood. New Delhi. 216-230 (1959) P.C. Sagi, R.G. Potter and C.F. Westoffs Contraceptive Effectiveness as a Function of Desired Family Size. Population Studies. XV 291-296. (1962) (9) The conversion could be effected with the formula - R' = 100R .T5R + 100 where R' is the rate per 100 woman years of elapsed time and R the rate per 100 woman years of exposure. 413 Evaluation of a Family Planning Publicity Program in India T.R.Balakrishnan and Ravi J.Matthai University of Indian Institute of Management, Western Ontario Ahmedabad 1. In India considerable importance has been given to family planning by the Government for more than a decade and many action programs have been undertaken, A number of studies have also been made to understand the moti- vating factors influencing the practice of family planning methods. In spite of these efforts, knowledge and practice of family planning in India have practically no impact on the national birth rate and raises serious questions as to the effectiveness of the programs. 2, Recently the Government of India have recognized the importance of mass communications besides interpersonal contact through social and public health workers in the promotion of family planning, and the Ministry of Information and Broadcasting at the National level and the publicity departments at the State levels have begun to plan the use of mass media, However, important problems face these agencies. Decisions have to be made on the selection of the media to be used, the intensity of their use and the ways of measuring the overall effect of the mass media on the target population. This paper reports some of the findings of a study done to measure the overall effect- iveness of an intensive publicity program carried out in the Hooghly District in West Bengal, with its main emphasis on the introduction of intra-uterine contraceptive devices (loop) but including other conventional methods as well. 3. The publicity campaign was concentrated in the major urban areas of Serampur, Chandernaggar and Chinsurah in the first two months where this study was done. The media used included cinema slides at movie houses, film projec- tions through audio-visual units, speeches at group gatherings, radio broad- casts by prominent persons, exhibitions, outdoor posters and holdings, arti- cles and advertisements in newspapers and literature in the form of folders to be distributed at clinics, exhibitions and gatherings. Three exhibition units were the focal points of the entire campaign. The campaign lasted for 63 days in the three main urban areas. 4, To measure the overall effect of the publicity campaign it was decided to conduct two sample surveys, a baseline survey before the start of the pub- licity campaign and a survey after the campaign to measure the extent of knowledge and practice of family limitation in the suburban communities of Serampur, Chandernaggar and Chinsurah. The three contiguous communities were treated as one for the purposes of the study. From the more than 400 blocks of approximately 150 households each in the locality, two sets of 24 blocks were selected systematically with equal probability for the two surveys. These blocks were first identified and all the couples in the blocks were 414 listed along with their ages and number of living children. Effectively married couples where the wife was in the age group 15-14 were retained and stratified into three strata, those with two or less children, with 3 or 4 children, and those with 5 or more children, Every fourth couple in each of these strata was selected to form the sample. 5e Both husband and wife were interviewed separately by male and female int- ervicwers. Wives were always interviewed first with a gap of three or four days before the husband was interviewed. Decision to interview both the spouses was influenced not only by the fact that their attitudes might vary but also by the fact that different media might have differential impact on husband and wife. Interviewing the same pair of spouses meant keeping the sample size low in comparison to different sets of husbands and wives, The latter would double the sample size. Moreover, it makes comparisons between spouses possible and internal consistency checks easier. However, the fact that the wife has already been interviewed affects the independence of the husbard's responses if some communication between the couple has taken place before the husband was interviewed. The baseline survey was undertaken dur- ing the two wecks before the start of the publicity campaign in the middle of April and the final survey was carried out over a slightly longer period after the middle of June. There were 524 and 533 completed responses for wives and 555 and 571 completed responses for husbands in the two surveys respectively, the response rates being 76.47 and 84.7% for wives and 80.9% and 89.8% for husbands. 6. Sample Characteristics:- About 407 of the wives in both surveys were younger than 30 years of age, while the corresponding figure for husbands was about 237. The average ages of the women in the baseline and post publicity surveys were 29.0 and 29.3 and that of men 37.8 and 38.1. The income distri- bution showed that the community consisted mainly of the lower income strata with almost 50¢ of the husbands reporting an income of Rs 100 or less per month. Only about & to 107 reported an income of over Rs 300 per month. The large proportion of families in the lower income groups is indicative of the predominance of industrial workers in the district. Men were considerably better educated than women. The percentage of women who had at least some secondary school education was only 23.3% compared to 49.5% for men, About 50% of the sample couples had 2 or less children and 22% had 5 or more children. 7. Exposure to Publicity Media:- In the baseline survey 41.4 of the hus- bands stated they read newspapers regularly, 19.8% sometimes, 12.4% seldom and 26.3% not at all. The second survey in this respect was not inconsistent with 39.1%, 16.1%, 14% and 30.8% respectively. Among wives, the comparable percent- ages during the baseline survey were 16.0, 13.4, 7.8 and 62.8 and in the post publicity survey, 17.1, 7.6, 2.6 and 72.7 respectively. During the post pub- licity survey, about 17¢ of the husbands and wives claimed to have seen reports in the newspapers on family planning while 17¢ of the wives and 3¥ of the husbands claimed to have seen advertisements about family planning. 8. During the campaign there were a large number of radio broadcasts on family planning. 29.6% of the sample husbands and 37.7% of sample wives re- 415 ported listening to these programs and about 14,7% of the husbands and 25.4 of the wives recalled without aid that the loop was discussed. 9. Between 247 to 34% of the husbands and 21% to 32% of the wives sec movies more than once a month. Slides and short films were the forms of publicity in the fifteen cinema houses in the district. 24.2% of the husbands and 19.1% of the wives claimed to have seen references to family plaming at the movies. 10. The exhibitions were the focal points of the campaign. About three-fourths of the respondents said they knew about the exhibitions though only 33.6% of the husbands and 24.8% of the wives said they visited the exhibitions. Data on recollection of items at the exhibitions suggest that pictures and models are the most effective exhibits and that films shown at the exhibition are of very little effect. 11. Posters vhich were displayed along the streets were more effective than folders which were distributed at exhibitions and other places. 68.5% of the husbands and 19.9% of the wives claimed to have seen family planning posters. 12, Table 1 presents the percentage of persons who practise some form of family planning among those who have heard or seen family planning publicity programs in one of the major media durirg the campaign. The proportion prac- tising was higher among those who had seen or heard the programs on the mass media compared to the general population. However, it should be remembered that those already practising are more likely to have listened and remembered the publicity programs. 13. Attitudes Toward Family Size:- One of the interesting findings was that the norm of 2 or 3 children as the ideal family size already existed in the cormunity. Because of this the publicity campaign had very little effect on the intention for more children either for wives or for husbands as Tables 2 and 3 show, The percentage wanting additional children drastically declined after two, both in the baseline and post publicity surveys. Only about one- third of the respondents with two living children intended to have more chil- dren and only about one-tenth with three children intended to have more. Our findings scem to show that at least in some urban communities the desirebility of having .a small family is accepted and in such regions campaigns ought to center more on the dissemination of \mowledge about family planning. 1, Attitudes Toward Family Planning:- Expression of 2 small family norm does not imply extensive practice. It takes time to reduce a norm to personal terms and into behavior. To investigate this possible gap betueen the general approval of family plaming as important for population control and national rrosperity, and personal concern ¿bout planning one's on family, two ques- tions were asked, one on whether they approved of family planning and the other «hether they have thought about controlling their own family. Unfor- tunately, the question on approval of family planning was asked only in the post publicity survey and hence the impact of the campaign on approval could not be measured, From Table 4 it can e seen that 90.7% of the wives and 57.6% of the husbands approved of family planning. The percentages definite- 1; opposed were higher among men (10,9°) than among vomen (6.17). 416 15. While about 90% of the respondents indicate approval of family planning, the percentage of wives who had thought about controlling the size of their own family was only 52.3% in the baseline survey. However, the percent who had considered controlling their family size had increased to 62,2% in the post publicity survey, A corresponding increase can also be noticed among the husbands, from 45.6% to 52.0% (Table 5). The gap between approval and person- al concern in family limitation is partly explained by the fact that a number of couples had less than two children and wanted more. 16. Knowledge of Family Planning:- There was a significant increase in the knowledge of family planning methods due to the publicity campaign. For the wives, the percentage who had knowledge of at least some method went up from 50.8% to 68.6% during the period and for the husbands from 47.9% to 59.5%, (Table 6). Knowledge in all the education and income groups went up because of the publicity campaign. The greatest gains were among women with primary school or lower education and among the lowest income groups. This is espe- cially significant because more than half the population fall in this category. 17. The impact of the publicity was much greater on the wives than on the husbands. Knowledge of almost all the methods more than doubled for the wives, whereas for the husbands the increases were much less (Table 7). The main em- phasis of the publicity campaign was on the loop and this resulted in almost half of the wives and as many as 40% of the husbands having acquired some knowledge about the loop. No probing was done to see how accurate or deep was their knowledge of the different methods and the figures should be interpreted only as indicators of the general awareness of the methods. After the publi- city the loop was the best known method, followed by condom and sterilization. Reported knowledge of the condom among the wives went up from 21,2% to 45,2% and knowledge of sterilization from 26.1% to 40.0%. The corresponding in- creases for husbands were lower but still substantial, 18. The importance of word of mouth in the communication of family planning information is clearly seen in Table 8, Relatives and friends were the most important source of knowledge, especially for wives. About 35.1% of the wives before the publicity and 53.0% after the publicity had heard about birth control methods through relatives and friends. The analysis of source of knowledge here is, however, superficial in the absence of breakdowns by pri- mary and secondary sources. 19. Practice of Family Planning:- The proportion practising some form of birth control increased from 18.7% to 26.6% for the wives and from 19.6% to 28,0% for the husbands during the publicity period (Table 9). However it was found that even though the overall percentage of practice went up, the pro- portion practising among those who had some knowledge was almost the same, 37% and 39% for the wives and 41% and 479 for the husbands. In other words, it is possible the success of the publicity campaign was more due to the fact that it made knowledge available for more persons rather than create a greater motivation for practice among those who already had some knowledge. 20. Practice of family planning me thods is given in Table 10. The numbers 41 being very small, the relictility of these percentages is low and they should be > : + + used only to leok for broad trends in practice. The conden was the most fre- nuently used method followed by sterilization. There ws some increase ina 2 roct 211 the methods during the campaign. The fact that slightly moro than 2% of the vives had loop insertions is encouraging uhen it is considered that “his as a corpletely new method, knowledge of which had been practicelly nen-exds- sent in the comunity before the start of the campaign. 21, Education was found to be ctrongly correlated with prectice of family plan- ning methods. Anong those tho had primary school or lower educztion, the per- ». centage practising some method was very low uhile amonz those ho had completed or at least had some high school education, more than 507 were practising some method. (Table 11). 22. Te gauge the effect of the number of living children on the practice of fam- ily planning, cross tabulation of practice against nwiber of children was mace (Table 12). Couples who had no children herdly practised. family liritotion nethods, the percentages being 1.5” and 2,4% for vives and hustands before the publicity campaign 2nd 5.1% and 5.7% after the campaign. During the campaign the most marked increase in practice was among the second and third parity couples, It seems that before the campaîzn the use of cortraception was re- lated to and increased"with parity. After the campaign, differences in extent of practice between second and higher parity couples were small and irregular. It would appear therefore that the campaign succeeded in reaching and influ- encing lower parity women--a group that in many campaigns has been elusive. 23. Conclusions: The most important finding of our study is the extent of the impact an intensive campaign can have in a rather localized comunity, À vell conceived mass communication program using primarily mass media can ef- fectively increase the awareness of family planning in a rather limited time. However, this study leaves many questions unanswered, Awareness at a particue ar point cf time does not imply retention of this awercness. lor does it mean a thorough lmowledge of the method. Moreover, the interest created may wear off after a few months. Follow-up studies at later periods ray reveal how much retention of interest there had been. Interest stimulated should also be studied over a period to determine as to what extent general awareness is translated into a desire to gain more knowledge and the depth to which know- ledge is acquired resulting in practice. : The survey also revealed certain aspects about motivation in family plan- ring. The smell family nornm is accepted mich more widely than is usually thought to be the case. The proportion practising among those tho had sone Imeuledge increased only slightly during the campaign. This vould imply that vhile it is easior to educate the people through zn intensive campaign in a a chort tine, it is considerably more difficult to increase the motivation to “va practice. Dut where knowledge is very low, this need not be disheartening, Ar increase in knowledge can be follcwed by an increase in the population practising even though the proportion practising among those who lmow may re- Xin the same, As 2 matter of fact, this may very well te the optimn strat- czy to be followed till knowledge is almost universal, because it is easier thon trying to increase motivation among those who already mow some method. 2, 418 Table 1 Post Publicity Survoy Husbands! and Wives' Exposure to Family Planning Publicity Through Individual Media by Practice and Non-Practice Heard/seen F.P, Publicity | Total Number Number Percent Exposed Practising Practising In Newspapers Husbands 291 112 38.5 Vives 180 62 ALL On Radio Husbands 169 80 47.3 vives 203 85 21,9 On Film Eusbands 178 58 42.0 “Vives 103 Ly 42,7 At Exhibitions Husbands. 192 93 13.4 Wives 127 >. 42,5 Total Sample Husbands 571 160 28.0 Wives 538 143 : 26.6 Table 2 Porcontaro Distribution of Vives by Intention for More Childron No. of Rascline Survey Post Publicity Swrvey Living [Total ¢ Distribution Total __ $ Distribution. Childron| Ho. Yes No indifforont No. “otel| No. Yes No Indifferant H.h. Total 2 100 650 18.0 15.0 2,0 100.0| 75 56.0 37.3 4,0 2.7 100.0 2 93 35.5 59.1 5. - ... 100.0 99 2.3 61.6 .. 4,1 100.0 i 74 9.5 83.8 6.7 es 100.0| 83 16.9 73.3 - 4,8 .. 100,0 63 5.9 85.3 5.9 3.0 100,0 84 L.8 92,9 1.2 : 1.1 100.0 5 52 5.8 92. 3 - 1.9 .. 100,0 5 7.) 85.2 7.4 e. 100.0 6 27 oe 92. 6 7.4 oe. 100.0 28 3.6 96.4 .. LX) 100.0 7+ . 43 .. . 95.3 . 4.7 ve. 100.0 3 2 oe. 100,0 e. .. 100.0 Dl 538 Table 3 Pereentngo Distribution of Husbandsbby Intention for Mora Children 0 8 89.3 2.4 2.3 ee 100.0| 88 93.2 2.3 4.5 se 100,0 1 109 56.0 26.6 17. ee 100,0| 89 64.0 19.1 16.9 .. 100.0 2 oh 36.2 53,2 10.6 ee 100.0| 106 130.2 66.0 3.8 es 100.0 66 4.5 83.3 12,1 ee 100,0| 82 8.5 81,7 9.8 es 100.0 5 51 2,0 90,2 7.8 ee 100.01 56 3.6 87.5 8.9 ee 100.0 6 29 À 89,7 10.3 .. 100.0 28 3.6 ot It 2,0 .. 100.0 7+ 20 + 90.0 7.5 2.5 100,0| 37 2.7 9.6 2.7 ee 100,0 555 571 [134 420 Table 4 Distribution of Wives ma Husbends by Approval of Family I Planning Post Publicity Survey Aprroval of . Vives ; Hucbanas amily ni Numbay _2 Number o Yes 438 20.7 500 87.6 No —. 33 6.1* 62 10,9 M.A. 17 3.2 9 1.6 Total 538 100.0 571 100.1 Table 5 Distribution of Wives and Husbands by Whether They Have ‘Thourht about Controllinz Forily Size Thought Wives Husbands about Cont- Bascline Post Publicity Easeline Post Publicity rolling | No. h Lo. ollege-educated increases to l.l. At ages 35 to 39, the average number of chil- iren born alive to the uneducated, to those with primary education, and to those with college education was identical: 4.5, but women with middle school and high school education, the average number was somewhat lower: 4.3 and 4.0, respectively again, sampling error could be the explanation. At ages 40 to 44, women with no education had had 5.4 live births as against only 4.7 for college-educated women. There was little or no difference for women with primary, middle, and high school education, though the number born alive was somewhat less than for women with no education and somewhat greater than for college-educated women. At ages 45 to 49, women with no education had had 6.0 live births, and this number drops consisten- tly to 4.68 for college-educated women. 14. For husbands, the usual inverse relationship between education and the number of children born alive to their wives does hold except in two or three instances that could be accounted for by sampling error. At ages 45 to 49, hus- bands with no education had had 1.2 more children born alive to their wives than had husbands with no education had had 1.2 more children born alive to their wives than had husbands with college education-6.0 as against 4.8. 15. In terms of fertility differences by occupation of the married women in the sample, only relatively few were employed---about ten percent. Among the em- ployed women, fertility differences by occupation were slight. By occupation of husband differences were also too small to be of significance. 16. Religion seems not to be an important factor in fertility in Seoul City. Of the women in the sample, only 31 percent expressed adherence to religion. Be- tween the religious and non-religious, fertility was only somewhat less for the religious than for the non-religious. Among those adhering to a religion, fer- tility was lower among Protestants than among Catholics, but the difference was too slight to be of importance. The higher education of the religious group and the fact that family planning is actively promoted by some Protestant groups ex- 465 plains, at least in part, the slightly lower fertility among th. religious than among the non-religious groups. 17. Migration differentials were found in the study not to be important, though roughly four-fifths of the 1,638 women in the sample were born outside Seoul City. In ages 45 to 49, for example, there was a difference of only 0.4 live births between the women born in Seoul City and those born outside. Fertility Level, 1965-1966 18. In the Seoul City sample of 1,638 married women with husband present, only 3/4---21 percent---experienced a live birth during the twelve months from June 1, 1965 to May 31, 1966. Nearly half of the b:rths---162, or 47 percent-— were to women in ages 25 to 29 who comprised only slightly more than one-fourth -—-27 percent---of all women in the sample. Women in ages 30 to 34 experienced 78 live births, or 23 percent of all live births, but these women comprised 27 percent of all women. For the oldest age group, 45 to 49, no live births were recorded. 19. Live births in Seoul City in 1965-1966, by order of birth, were largely of the lowest orders. Half of the 344 births were births of the first or second order. This situation contrasts sharply with that revealed in survey of an area in Chung-nam Province-—a rural province---where the Ministry of Health and Social Affairs in 1965, found that only about 39 percent of live births in that year were of such orders. Live births of the third and fourth orders made up 36.4 percent of all live births in Seoul City and 35.6 percent of such births in the area Chung-nam Province. Live births of the fifth and higher orders in Seoul City comprised only 13.4 percent of all live births but 25.6 percent of all such births in Chung-nam Province. The smaller proportion of live births in the high- est orders in Seoul City than in Chung-nam Province could be interpreted as evidence of greater birth control in Seoul City than in Chung-nam Province. 20. For married women with husbands present, age-specific fertility rates in the lowest ages were higher for Seoul City in 1966 and for Sungdong-Ku---an area within Seoul City---than for the entire country in 1965, and the opposite was true for the highest ages. At ages 20 to 24, live births per 1000 married women num- bered 330 in Seoul City and 277 in Sungdong area as against 253 in the entire country. At ages 4O to 44, there were only 31 live births per 1000 married women in Seoul City but there were 127 per 1000 married women in the country as a whole. 21. The interval between births would seem to be on the increase in Seoul City, and this increase probably reflects the increase in abortions and in family planning. The survey revealed an average interval of 34.4 months for live births in 1966. This period is 4.2 months longer than the average interval for children ever-born to the 1,638 women in the sample. By five year age groups, the inter- val in each age group was longer for births in 1966 than for all live births to. all the 1,638 married women in the sample. The interval increased consistently with age. At ages 20 to 24, the difference was only 6.4 months, but at ages 40 to 44, 16.3 months. 22. By birth order, intervals are irregular for all age groups. For live births in 1966, the interval between marriage and first live birth was 20.3 466 months. This interval increased for live births of subsequent order and reached 1 peak of 38.6 months in the case of fourth order live births. For children ever orn alive to all of the 1,638 married women, the interval between marriage and first birth was 22.8 months, a slightly longer interval than in the similar situation for live births in 1966. Except in this instance, the intervals between »irths order for live births in 1966 was in every age group longer than for all live births to all sample women. 23. The crude birth rate for Seoul City in 1966, the survey revealed, was 32.4 births per 1,000 population. This rate is lower by 2.9 births per 1,000 popu- lation than the rate for Sungdong area for the period 1962-1964. This drop in the birth rate probably reflects the effect of the increase in the birth interval 1s a result of family planning, For all women in 1966, the total fertility rate was 3,600 births per 1,000 women and the gross reproduction rate was 1,700 births per 1,000 women. The gross reproduction rate for women with husbands present was 3,500 births per 1,000 such women. The rate of natural increase was 26.5 per 1,000 population as derived from the crude birth rate of 32.4 and a crude death rate of 5.9. Practice of Family Planning 24. Married women practicing family planning at the time of the survey con- stituted 21.4 percent of the 1,638 women in the Seoul City sample. In addition, another 6.2 percent had practiced family plamning in the past, so that altoge- bher 27.6 percent of all married women had practiced or were practing family pMansing. This figure compares with one of 20.3 percent for the Songdong area sf Seoul City for the period 1961-1963, and with 22.4 percent and 26.9 percent for the whole country in 1964 and 1965, respectively. 25. The percent of married women who had practiced or were practicing family planning was highest for women in ages 30 to 34 and 35 to 39-42.2 and 40.5 per- tent, respectively. Percentages for women in younger ages than those just cited were much lower: only 7.6 percent for women in ages 20 to 24 and only 20.1 per- tent for those in ages 25 to 29. As would be expected, only a very small pro- portion---9./, percent---of women in ages 45 to 49 and ever practiced family planning. 26. In terms of birth order, only a relatively small proportion of women with len Mrth orders had practiced or were practing family planning: only 1.3 per- seat for women who had not yet had a live birth and only 9.7 percent for women with live birth of the first order. After first order births, the proportions practicing increase rapidly, rising to 48 percent for fifth order live births. Afterwards, the percent of women practing falls off more or less regularly to 30 percent in the instance of eight or more live births. 27. The practice of family planning as related to birth orders would seem to show clearly that the tradition of large families is giving way before the increasing desire, as found in many surveys, to limit the number of children to four, the ideal number most often stated. At the same time, many women who have expressed the desire to limit family size are not practicing family planning. At all ages, the percent of fecund women practicing family planning is less than the percent who stated that they wanted to limit family size. At ages 25 to 29, 31 percent of the women said that they did not want more children, but only 22 per- cent were practicing family planning. For subsequent age groups, this difference 467 increases, and at ages 40 to 44, 91.6 percent wanted to limit family size hut only 59.7 percent were practicing limitation. In sum, 56.5 percent of 1,226 fecund women said they wanted no more children, but only 36.8 percent were practicing family planning. 28. Abortions reduced fertility sharply in the period from June 1, 1965 to May 31, 1966. During this period there were 115 abortions to 101 wanen as against a total of 344 live births to the sample women, or one abortion for every 3 live births. The abortion rate increased with each successive five year age group. Per 100 live births, the abortion rate was 12 at ages 20 to 24, 15 at ages 25 to 29, 58 at ages 30 to 34, and 98 at ages 35 to 39. For ages 40 and above, the number of cases was too small to permit calculation of meaningful rates. This pattern of increasing abortion rates by age was similar to the one in Japan in 1952. . 29. The abortion rate in Seoul City was approximately twice the rate for the country as a whole in 1964, where the Ministry of Health and Social Affairs found only 16.8 abortions per 100 live births. 468 EVALUATION OF FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAMME IN INDIA. - by D.V.R. MURTY (CENTRAL FAMILY PLANNING INSTITUTE, NEW DELHI) le The official national family planning (f.p.) programme in India was launched in 1952. During the first five-year plan period (1951- 56), the approach was cautious and exploratory, the emphasis being mostly on demographic and attitude studies and pilot service projects and also a modest beginning was made of provision of clinical services in the medical institutions. Ali these conclusively established that a large proportion of couples were in favour of family planning (fep.) and that the government-supported programme was welcomed by the peop- le. During the second five-year plan period (1956-61), high powered F.P. Boards were formed at the Centre and in the States. A Director of Family Planning was appointed in the Union Health Ministry and Fa- mily Planning Officers posted in the States. The following five-poi- nt programme was developed on a firm basis and expanded: .a. education of the public through mass media, public opinion leaders and clinic staff .b. training of various categories of personnel .c. provision of contraceptive supplies through clinics .d. research in. the fields of demography, communication and biology of reproduction and .e. organi- zation at fhe Central and State levels. 2. All conventional contracdptives were supplied mainly through clinics either free of cost or 'àt subsidized rates, depending upon the income of the user. It was only in April 1958, that the Govt. “of India approved, in principle, sterilization as a method of fam- ily planning and in October 1959, sanctioned special casual leave for six working days to regular non-industrial Central Govt. emplo- yees who underwent sterilization operation. This facility was lat- er (in August 1960) extended to industrial employees also. Some State Govts. gave a compensatory allowance of Rs. 10 to 30, besides free transport and casual leave, to the persons undergoing sterili- zation. In 1960, the Central Govt. offered to State Govts., 100 per cent financial assistance for the training of doctors in the techni- ques of sterilization and for establishing sterilization centres in hospitals upto taluk level. 469 5. For the first time, a critical appraisal of the fn. was made in April, 1963.1 It was decided to reor_anize by adopting the "extension or non-clinical approach" an en the organisationzl set up at the state, district, urban clinic and block levels. A new orientation was given to the staffing rattern by providing .a. Extension Educators at the district, urban clinic and block levels .b. One Store-keeper each at the state, district and bl- ock level .c. One Computor at block level, one Statistical Assistant at district level and one Statistician at the state level .d. One :0- bile sterilization unit at the district level, The reorganized prog- ramme provided principally for the community education, free flow of supplies and was based mainly on the use of condoms and on male steri- lizations. Le The sterilization programme started meking good progress since 1958, but not the contraception programme. Although estinctes of the actual number of users of different contraceptives were not available, the percentages of users of various types of contrecertives in 1965 were estimated as follows: diaphragm and jelly 2, jelly with applica- tor 13, condom 65, foam tablet 10 and others 10.2 The vast net work of distribution centres needed for producing a real impact on ferti- lity through the use of condoms could not be organized due to various reasons and hence the main reliance had to be placed on sterilization, At the same time, the calculations made on the basis of available data revealed that the sterilization alone should not be relied upon, to achieve the mein goal of the programme, as the number of operations required. to be performed would be beyond the limits of feasibility. 5. Fortunately, a new method, IUCD, was added to the arnarentarium of the methods in voguz: in India in July 1965, ‘With the introduction of the IUCD, an effective mass programme appeared to be cuite feasib- le because of its great clinical and administrative advantages over sterilization, - 6. A Special Committe was formed in December, 1965 "to review what additions and changes were necessary as a result of the greatly alt- ered situation due to the I.U.C.D. having come in the ferefront of the programme, in the staffing pattern, financial rositions etc." The importance of district as the pivotal unit of organisation, which was stressed in the reorganized f.p. programme was further rciterated by the Special Committe. It was decided that the mobile educational and service programmes should rediate from the district end the district le Raina, B.L., Family Planning Programme, Report For 1962-63 Direct- orate General of Health Services, llinistry of Health, New Delhi, (1964), 2, liurty, D.V.R., The Place of IUCD, Sterilization and Contraception, In the Family Planning Programme in India, Journal of Family Welfare, Vol, XII, No. 2, Dec., 1965, Family Planning Association of India, Bombay. 470 f.p. bureau should be responsible for planning supervision, coordina- tion and evaluation of programme in the district as a whole, In or-: der to enable the district bureau to perform these functiona effecie- ntly, the creation of the following three divisions in the bureau was sanctioned in October, 1966: an Administration Division, an Education. and Information Division, with a mobile education unit, and a Field Operation and Evaluation Division, including one mobile sterilization unit and mobile I.U.C.D. units, at the rate of one unit for 5 to 7.5 lakhs of population,to carry out the sterilization and IUCD programm- es and an Evaluation Cell, consisting of one Statistical Investigator and two Field and Evaluation Workers. Sanctions were also issued in November, 1960 for further stregthening of the staff of the rural or- ganization at the block or main centre level, and state f.p. bureau. Te As regards the measures taken to give impetus to the sterilizat- ion, IUCD and contraception programmes, significant decisions were ta- ken in Oct. 1966, according to which, the Central Govt. would reimbur- se to the State Govt. etc., the expenditure to the extent of Rs. 11 for each IUCD insertion, Rs. 30 for vasectomy operation and Rs. 40 for tubectomy operation done, to cover the compensation ‘to the case for loss of wages etc., payments to doctor and motivator, transport and drugs and dressings. The actual break-down of these amounts is left to the discretion of the State Govts. Provision was made for addit- ional beds in the maternity wards of the hospitals and a special ca- sual leave of 14 days was sanctioned to all female Central Govt. em- ployees undergoing non-puerperal sterilization operations, It was also decided to distribute convention~l contraceptives through cont- raceptive distribution centres,® free àf charge, and through depotsb at the rate of Rs. 0.05 each for one päcket of three condoms, one tube of foam tablets, one tube of jelly, one applicator and one diaphragm. 8. With the extended family planning programme, which became target- oriented and tuwm~bound, the need became more apparent for quick deci- sions, flexible and effective programmes and quick implementation. There is now a Cabinet Committee for Family Planning. A Commissioner (FP) was appointed in August 1965 and the Ministry of Health was re- designated as the Ministry of Health and Family Planning and a sepa- rate Department of Family Planning was established in this Ministry in January, 1966. There are Advisory Committees in the fields of de- mography, communication action and research and biology of human re- productions There is a Central Family Planning Institute in New Delhi, which functions as the main. technical resource to the Department of Family Planning. as These include all family planning centres and .sub-centres and other medical and welfare centres etc., which do not have family planning centres but distribute contraceptives as part of their normal duties. b. These are persons, shops, units etc. which are authorized to issue simple ‘contraceptives at nominal price as prescribed by the Govt. 471 9. The expenditure on f.p. programme was Rs. 1.45 million in the First Plan period (1951-56), Rs. 21.56 million in the Second Plan period (1956-61), and about Rs. 270 million in the third plan pertod (1961-66). The provision made for the programme during the Fourth Plan period is Rs. 2,290 million. These budget allocations are suggestive of the increased significance attached f.p. in the context of national policies. 10. Chanderasekaran and Freymann* suggested a hiearachy of objectives, in descending order, for the f.p. programme planning and evaluation as follows: (a) the ultimate programme impact objective which is directly related to programme goal i.e. reduction of fertility; (b) the intermediate programme impact objectives, mainly related to the family size norms and family planning . knowledge, attitudes and practices i.e. psychological and behavioural changes; and (c) executive objectives including, 12! performance objectives relating to the provision of contraceptive supply outlets, such as distribution centres and depots, and continuous supply of effective, cheap and acceptable contraceptives; and (ii) effort objectives, relating to the staffing of f.p. centres with skilled workers, training of staff, equipment, effective supervision of and support to field workers and mobilization of commercial distribution outlets to carry contraceptives. The programme evaluation should be applied first to the objectives of the lowest levels and then successively to each objective up the scale, so that if we know the degree of achievement of an objective, this finding then becomes a step towards the next objective. 11. The basic evaluation of the executive objectives had been going on in the country almost since inception of the programme. This is usually based in the study of data compiled from the monthly and other periodical returns. The proformae for reporting underwent many revisions in the past in accordance with the shifts in the programme emphasis. At present, the returns are received normally every month at the central level from every state, which provide district-wise information regarding the progress of establishment of various types of f.p. units, of training of various categories of personnel and of important educational programmes. They also provide information regarding the progress of service programmes in terms of contraceptives issued by type, sterilizations performed and IUCD insertions done. These data give an idea of the performance - target ratios for the schemes, for which the targets are set. 12. According to the information available up to 21.4.67, there were State F.P. Bureaux in all states either with full or partial complement of staff, 241 (or 71 per cent of target of 341) District F.P. Medical Officers, 1,554 (or 35 per cent of target of 4,434) technical staff in position at the District F.P. Bureaux, 31 (or 66 per cent of target of 47) State F.P. Training Centres 4,371 (or 80 per cent of target of 5,432 3. Chandersekaran C. and Freymann Moye W. Evaluating Community Family Planning Programme, paper presented at Symposium on Research Issues in population change, at University of Pittsburg School of Public Health, June 3, 1964. p. 2-13. 472 Rural Main F.P. Centers, 10,322 (or 25 per cent of target of 41,122), Rural Sub-centres, and 1,590 (88 per cent of target of 1,812) Urban F.P. Centres. Facilities for IUCD insertions were made available through 3,349 static and 188 mobile units and for sterilization operations through 3,527 static and 255 mobile units. There has been considerable achievement in the establishment of various types of f.p. units at various levels but similar success has not been achieved in respect of the services actually rendered. 13. The sterilization programme made considerable progress ever since the sterilization was approved (1958). The number of operations done in 1958 was 0.02 million, which was almost double the number in 1957, and which increased to 0.06 million in 1960 to 0.16 million in 1962, to 0.27 million in 1964, to 0.47 million in 1965 and to 0.72 million in 1966. However, it should be noted that the performance - target ratio for sterilizations during the period, April 1966 - March 1967, was only 57 per cent. The IUCD programme which was launched on a mass scale in July, 1965 achieved as many as 0.80 million insertions (80 per cent of target) by March, 1966 i.e. at a rate of about 0.09 insertions per month. This rate decreased to 0.066 million during the period April 1966 - March 1967, when 0.79 million total insertions were done i.e. only 19 per cent of the target set. The figures of sterilizations and insertions seem to have been under reported. The complete information about the staff appointed at the various units, their training and various types of contraceptives distributed is not available. The returns are not only incomplete but are also inaccurate in some cases. 14. The compilation of monthly work done would be complete and accurate if the system of obtaining basic information from the field is sound. For this, there should be (a) a standardized simple record-keeping system which could be easily adopted by the peripheral workers and which could readily provide the necess data for returns and for treatment of the IUCD and sterilization cases oy standard profermae for returns, which could be easily filled on the basis of the available records at each level and which could provide the minimum essential administrative intelligence (c) clear instructions regarding the channels “and ld which various types of data have to be relayed to the Central Govt. a) adequate staff, mainly statistical, at the block, district and state levels to scrutinize the returns and to consolidate the data for onward transmission. Of the approved statistical staff, the following were reported to be in position: 8 out of 26 statisticians required at the state level, (31 per cent) and 194 out of 341 statistical investigators required at district level, (57 per cent). The information regarding computors at block level is not available. 15. Because of the adoption of extension approach and because of the recent changes in policies in respect of IUCD, sterilization and contraception programmes, it became necéscary to change the family planning record-keeping and reporting systems. The systems, developed by the author and the Regional Advisor on Population Policies and Programmes, ECAFE, in consultation 473 with others, were approved by a Committee and finally the Department of Family Planning recommended their adoption throughout the country.” Cnce these systems go into effective implementation and the information starts pouring in, the basic evaluation becomes easy. 16. The basic records system to be followed by all f.p. centres consists of (a) maintenance of a Registration Register and (») Preparation of Daily Abstract of Clinical Records. The other clinical records, to be maintained by the centre include three types of Case Cards, one each for IUCD, female sterilization and male sterilization. Besides these, every centre will also maintain a Contraceptive Stock Register. The contraceptives issued by the centre will be recorded in the Registration Register itself. The other contraceptive distribution centres and depots will maintain a very simple Issue Register. 17. The Registration Register is intended for recording all visits of all cases made to the centre either for insertion, operation, contraceptive supplies, treatment, check-up or consultation only; so that it provides the information about the total case load at the centre. The Daily Abstract is an intermediary step to facilitate the preparation of monthly report easily and accurately, on the basis of Registration Register and Case Cards. The clinic records are to be maintained in such a way that they provide area-wise statistics of services rendered, based on which the performance-target ratios can be worked out for each unit area. 18. The monthly reports provide the data regarding the number of various types of service units functioning, the number of units reporting for the month, camps held and services rendered. The quarterly progress reports provide data regarding the staff position along with their training, equipment and transport, training programmes at the State Family Planning Training Centres, selected educational programme and expenditure. There will be two types of half-yearly reports, one giving the data on important characteristics of IUCD and sterilization cases and the other giving the progress of training at the Training Centres for Para-medical personnel. And finally, there will be one detailed annual report from each state. 19. In addition to the records and reports to be adopted by the f.p. centres, a coupon referral system was also recently recommended for use. The coupons will be used only in respect of IUCD and sterilization cases. Under this system, there will be two types of coupons, one to be issued by the motivator after fully motivating the case, and the other to be issued by the doctor after rendering the IUCD or sterilization service to the case. The Motivator's coupon will be prepared in duplicate, one copy to be retained by the motivator and other to be given to the motivated case. The Doctor's Coupon will be prepared in triplicate, one copy to be retained by the doctor, 4. Department of Family Planning, Ministry of Health and Family Planning, New Delhi, Guide for Maintenance of Records and Submission of Returns at various levels . 474 one to be given to the case and one to be sent to the payment office. The coupon system will provide basis for the payments to be made to doctor, motivator and case; will facilitate quick counting of insertions and operations done and will also provide the data on 'who did what and from where?! 20. As regards the intermediate objectives of the programme, there are no data available on all India basis to evaluate the current programme. Nationwide Sample Surveys of Family Planning Knowledge, Attitude and Practice have to be conducted periodically, say once in three years, to obtain information on both the direct and indirect effects of the programme. There is also a great need to conduct Follow-up Studies of IUCD Cases using sampling techniques to find out the socio-economic characteristics of the cases, rates of retention, expulsion, removal and pregnancy, reasons for removal, the contraceptive practice of the cases prior to insertion and after dropping out. 21. Despite the extension and intensifications of the programme so far achieved, it is doubtful if the national birth rate has shown any decline. The total number of sterilization operations performed since 1956 up to March, 1967 is 2.27 million and the total number of IUCD insertions done is 1.70 million up to March, 1967. It is not known as to how many of these cases are still alive, are currently married, and are in the reproductive age group; and how many of the IUCD's inserted are in situ etc. The number of habitual users of other contraceptives may be estimated to be 0.5 million. There could be some more cases following f.p. on their own besides those reported by the official agencies; yet the total number of all categories of cases put together can be expected to constitute only a very small proportion of the total estimated fertile couples of over 85 million in the country. However, in some areas, especially where intensive f.p. work was done, definite declining trends of birth rate were reported. As for instance: in the Mehrauli Block (rural) near Delhi, the birth rate decreased from the normal level of 52 to 48 during 1965-66; in Athoor Block (rural) Madras State, it decreased from 40.2 to 35.4 in five years, 1959-64; in the Singur Health Centre area (rural), West Bengal, the birth rate of the level 42 noticed up to 1958 decreased to 37 by 1961 increased to 42 by 1963 and again decreased to 34 by 1966; in an urban block in Calcutta city the birth rate of 26 in 1963 decreased to 22 in 1964; end in the Chetla Health Centre area (urban), Calcutta, the rate of 29 in 1961 decreased to 24 in 1966. 22. The reductions: that occurred in birth rates of certain areas, like those mentioned above, have demonstrated the possibility of reducing the birth rate of Indian community through f.p. Taking into consideration the possible success for f.p. programme, the Expert Committee on Population Projections assumed, in 1964, that the national birth rate of 41.7 during 1951-60, would decrease to 38.6 during 1966-70 to 35.1 during 1971-75 and to 28.7 during 1976-80. But the immediate target set for the f.p. programme is to reduce the birth rate to 25 by 1975-76. Such a target can be achieved if, in 1975-76, in a typical community of 1,000 persons, there will be about 40 sterilized couples within the reproductive age group and if the average 475 effectiveness of Sgnataseption programme for the remaining couples will be about 50 per cent. For this, the following number of couples, per 1,000 population, are suggested as annual targets for different programmes: 3 couples to be inserted IUCD, 4 to be sterilized and 4 to be made contraceptors during 1967-68, these numbers have to be increased gradually to 6, 7 and 8 respectively during 1970-71 and 6.5, 12 and 18 respectively during 1975-76. 23. When the programme is being expanded and intensified at a fast rate, it would be desirable to have the base-line data collected on the national basis immediately and to arrange for periodical evaluation of the ultimate objective of the programme. So far, the best available estimates of birth rate are those based on the census data and they relate to the census decades. They do not command the same credence as the rates based on the observation of events in the population. The office of the Registrar General of India started two projects, namely, Sample Registration and Sample Censuses, both designed to provide fairly accurate estimates of birth rates etc., at the state level. The Sample Registration has been found to be successful in rural areas but not in urban areas so far. The Sample Censuses were not implemented by all states. In the 22nd Round of National Sample Survey, (July 1967-June 1968), an improved schedule is going to be used for the collection of demographic data. The national sample coupled with the state sample, may provide fairly accurate estimates of vital rates for urban and rural areas, state-wise. 24. There have been a number of ad-hoc surveys carried out in selected groups of villages, towns and cities, which provide fertility patterns at local levels. The need for standardizing procedures for fertility surveys was greatly felt and with the f.p. programme developing fast to reduce the birth rate considerably in a short period, it became imperative to develop sensitive indices of fertility so that these indices could be used to measure the degree of achievement of programme objective at short intervals. A Standard Fertility Survey Manual” was prepared, which outlined, in great detail, the procedures to be adopted in fertility surveys having the main objectives of the assessment of the levels of fertility from time to time, in a standard way, and development of sensitive indices of fertility which can detect small changes in fertility in short periods of time. The Standard Fertility Surveys are at present being carried out in five areas (blocks), and the results are highly satisfactory. There is need for the expansion of the surveys area to bigger unit, like a district, so that the results would be more meaningful and useful and for the extension of such surveys to many more areas. 5. Murty, D.V.R., Estimated Reductions in Birth Rate Resulting from Different Combinations of Sterilization and Contraception Programme in India, paper contributed to the Second World Population Conference, Belgrade, 30 August - 10 September, (1965), p.5. 6. Central Family Planning Institute, New Delhi; Standard Fertility Stu Manual, Part - I - Standard Fertility Survey, (mimeographed), (1965). 476 SOME SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS OF WOMEN SEEKING CONTRACEPTIVE ADVICE IN ONE OF THE SOUTHERN CLINICS OF TEHRAN 3 9 33 3H HX NASSER MAROUFI-BOZORGI INSTITUTE FOR SOCIAL STUDIES AND RESEARCH UNIVERSITY OF TEHRAN INTRCDUCTION le During the past few years, family planning action program- mes have aroused increasing interests A considerable amount of literature has been devoted to it, and it has become the main channel of contemporary investigation as far as the demography and sociology of the population is concerned. 2. In recent years, certain governments, mostly those in Asia and Africa, have decided to take more comprehensive action pro- grames and attempts are being made to find a suitable solution to the crisis ci the population problem. 3. Iran, like most Asian countries, has very high fertility and relatively low mortality rates. According to the 1956 census, the population was about 18.95 million, whereas in 1966 the total population was nearly 25.75 million. This indicates that during the past 10 years, the population of Iran has increased about 6.8 million, If we assume the extent of underenumeration in the 1956 census, on the extreme case, as about 0.5 million, we derive an average rate of naturel increase of about 2.8 percent for the intercensual period, in that case, the present rate of growth will be approximately 3 percent a year, 4. The high level of population growth in Iran has not yet been felt greatly, but it will become a problem in the near furture, Various projections will support this statement. According to the projection which has been made by the author* the present popu- lation will double in thenext 25 years, consequentely creating vae rious social and economic problemse * N. Maroufi-Bozorgi - Population projection for Iran 1956-76, communication B/4657 World Population Conference - Belgrade 1965. 477 5e In recent years in Iran, some steps have been taken in this respect and a few clinics have been opened in various part of Tehran and other major cities of Iran. DATA AVAILABILITY 6. Very little information ís available regardinz the women who are interested in and are seeking contraceptive advice, As far as we know, there has not been any investigation of this kind of data. There are some clinics in different Hospitals of Tehran, but unfor- tunately only the clinic which is located in Farah Hospital (one of the largest maternity hospitals: in the world, with 40,000 deliveries a year) keeps records of the social and economic characteristics of its patients. This study is based only on information kept for each women who attended the family planning clinic which was available on the case card maintained by the clinic and the data were transferred to a epec- ially prepared schedul. For our purpose we have taken these records for one calender year, starting March 1964 to February 1965. The total number of cases in this year amounted to 779. AGE DISTRIBUTION 7. The percentage age distribution (see table 1) indicates that about 58 percent of the women in our survey are between 25-34 year of age, compared with only 37 percent for married women in the same age group for Tehran 1956. The mean age of females is about 33 years, considerably higher than the mean age of marríed Tehran females for Tehran city in 1956. The reason for this age difference must be due to the fact that women usually look for contraceptive advice when their number of children is already high enough to cause social and economic problems. The age group 15-19 has a very low percentage and the same can be observed in the age group over 40 years. In the former case, women do not like birth control and feel it would be better first to establish the desired number of children, while in the latter case, elder women usually feel themselves safe from conception and are traditionally-minded, Table 1 AGE DISTRIBUTION OF THE SURVEY AND OF MARRIED TEHRAN FEMALES Age group Survey Tehran females* 15-19 0.5 11.6 20-24 8.7 22,6 25-29 24.8 19.5 30-34 32.9 17.3 35-39 21.4 12,0 40-44 10.4 9.2 45-49 1.3 7.8 Total 100.0 100.0 * 1956 Census 478 ,ITERACY STATUS 8. The general educational level of women in our survey is very .ow; only 15 percent of them can read and write or have any school :ertificate., Table 2 makes a comparison between educational status )f the women in the survey and that of married Tehran females in 1956 sensus. It is apparent that the women in the survey are below the seneral level of literacy. This is because the educated women usually lave a far better knowledge of birth control as compared to unedu- tated women, In addition, educated women usually prefer to seek contra- >eptive advice in private clinics, and do not like to participate in any public inquiries in this regard, particularly those in the upper >lasses. - Table 2 EDUCATIONAL STATUS OF THE WOMEN IN OUR SURVEY AND OF MARRIED TEHRAN FEMALE IN THE REPRODUCTION AGE GROUPS Literacy status Our sample Tehran females Jan read and write or com- pleted any educational level . 15.0 32.0 Illiterate ...ceoocoorecocoreoe 84.1 64.4 Not stated ..sccocscosocereceoo 0.9 3.0 Total ..ooccooccoccoceseccocece 100.0 100.0 9. It is generally found in many countries that there is a correla- tion between the average number of children born alive, and also survi- ving children, with the educational status of mother, In other words, the higher the educational level, the lower the average number of children born alive and surviving children. Table 3 confirms this finding somehow, Table 3 AVERAGE NUMBER OF CHILDREN BORN ALIVE & SURVIVING BY LITERACY STATUS OF THE MOTHER Literacy Live-birth Surviving Ratio Can read and write or completed any educational level ....cosceco 5.6 Sel 0193 llliterate «.socccococcooocccocoo T.2 5.9 0.81 FERTILITY CHARACTERISTICS 10, It is more or less clear that most women who are seeking contraceptive advice already have very high fertility. The average number of children born alive is 7.0 and at the age 45+49 reaches to 10.0, and average number of pregnancies is of course always higher, 479 The average number of births per pregnancy is 0.90, the consequence of about 10 percent still-birth and abortion. This ratio seems to be constant in all age groups. Table 4 indicates the ratio of births per one pregnancy in each age groupe Table 4 AVERAGE NUMBER OF PREGNANCIES AND LIVE-BIRTHS Age group Pregnancies Live-births Birth per one pregnancy 15-19 3.0 2.8 0.93 20-24 — 4.9 4.5 0.91 25-29 6.4 5.8 0.90 30-34 - 7.6 Tel 0.91 35-39 963 8.3 0.89 40-44 10.1 9.0 0.89 45-49 10.6 10,1 0.94 Total 7.6 7.0 0.90 11. Another fertility characteristic of women is the average number of pregnancies and live-births with regard to the duration of marriage, Table 5 shows as experted, a direct correlation between durations of marriage and the average number of pregnancies and live- births, Table 5 AVERAGE NUMBER OF PREGNANCIES AND LIVE-BIRTHS BY DURATION OF MARRIAGE Duraticn of Average numbe of marriage (years) pregnancies live-births 0-4 2.0 2.0 5=9 4.5 4.2 10-14 6.5 5.9 15-19 8.5 7.6 20-24 9.7 8.6 25-29 10.9 9.6 30+ 11.4 10.3 Total 7.8 7.0 480 {ETHODS OFFERED BY CLINIC 12, Table 6 indicates that 77.9 percent of the women in our survey who have visited the clinic are using oral tablets. About 18.2 and l«9 percent are using I.U.D. and diaphragm, respectively, Table 6 PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF WOMEN WHO ARE USING DIFFERNT METHODS Age group Diaphragm Oral tablets U.I.D. Other Not stated 15-19 - 50.0 25.0 - 25.0 20-24 - 71.2 8,8 - - 25-29 1.6 82.9 15.0 - 0.5 30-34 2.7 75.0 19.9 1.6 0.8 35-39 0.6 71.3 26.9 4.2 - 40-44 3.7 79.0 11,1 6.3 = 45-49 10.0 80.0 10.0 - - Total 1.9 78.0 18.2 1.4 0.5 OCCUPATION OF HUSBAND 13e Table 7 indicates that the proportion of women whose hushands are working as craftsmen, production-process workers, labourers and related workers have the highest percentage (47.2%) compared to the nale population of Tehran in 1956 (34.4%). In contrast the lowest proportion belongs to clerical workers, with 2.1 percent. Table 7 RERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF HUSBANDS BY OCCUPATION OF HUSBAND AND THAT OF TOTAL MALE POPULATION BY OCCUPA=- TIONAL STATUS IN 1956 CENSUS Jecupational classification Our survey 1956 census Professional, technical, adminis- trative and related workers ¿..e.e.o 2.7 15,6 Clerical workers scooccoocccconeo 2.1 Sales workers ...soccooccococccooo 18.2 16.7 Farmers, miners, quarrymen and related workers oo... 2.3 3.3 Service, transport, and related workers e….….................... 20.2 20.6 Craftsmen, prod. process, labourers and Telated workers ...ecoovccccccooo 47.2 34.4 481 Occupational classification Our survey 1956 census Armed forces .ssccsccoccocracocoo 3.1 Workers not classified by occupa- 9.4 tion ..ecoccoccooacareoccacarcore 4.2 Total .esccccscocscorcoccocecocoocoe 100.0 100.0 l4. According to table 8 below, there is a significáant diffe- rence in the fertility by the different occupational groups. The highest average number of children born alive belongs to the farmers, miners, guarrymen and related workers, compared to 6.7 for sales worker: which is the lowest one. The same differences are observed in the surviving children. Table 8 PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF HUSBANDS BY MAJOR OCCUPATIONAL GROUPS, LIVE-BIRTHS, SURVIVING CHILDREN Major occupational groups Live-births Surviving Ratio children Professional technical, administrative and related WOTkers .«scoococoocorcococorocoe 6.9 6.1 0.88 Clerical workers ..escsoccccocoo 6.7 5.6 0.82 Sales workers se... Tel 5.9 0.83 Farmers, miners, guarrymen and related workers ..eoccccocoocoo 8.5 6.6 0.78 Service, transport and related WOTkers «o sococcococcococoreoe 7.0 5.7 0.81 Craftsmen, prod. procers, labourer and related workers 6.9 5.6 0.81 Armed forces seecesescscscccne 6.8 5.9 0.87 Workers not classified by occu- pation 0... TaT 6.3 0.82 CONCLUDING REMARKS 15. As mentioned earlier, very little information is available regarding women who are seeking and practising family planning methods. The present study attemps to convey some idea of the socie-economic characteristics of these women. As table 1 indicates almost 65 percent of women who have visited the clinic are 30 years of age and over. It is clear that women who have already too many children think of family planning and show interest in using contracentive devices, 482 16. The average of 7 children born alive to these women is very high, and in the age group 45-49 this average has reached 10.0. Women who have come te the clinic have had on the average 7.8 pregnan- cies each. Literacycprobably a very strong influence. About 84 percent of the women are not able to read and write as indicate in table 3, 17. There are primarily three kinds of contraceptive methods re- commended at the clinic: diaphragm, oral tablets and I.U.D. As table 8 shows, most of the women (47.8%) who are visiting the clinic are using oral tablets. This preference is perhaps due to the fact that using pills is an easy method of contraception. 483 ATTITUDES ON FAMILY PLANNING IN TURKEY Dr.Halúk Cillov Professor of Statistics and Applied EconomicseUniversity of Istanbul I- Some explanations: The rapid growth of the population of the world after the Second World War has encouraged the role and use of "family planning" to slow down the "population boom". Turkey has also had a signgficant demographic change during the period 1945-62. Various studiem have revealed after 1958, that the rate of increase of population was about 3 %, the age group 15 years and younger was 41.5 %, the birth rate was about 45 per thousand and the death rate 14 per thousand. In early 1962, Turkey has began to control her population at the unofficial level. The first survey concerning family planning was conducte( in 1963 (1). In 1964 the Ministry of Health established a Family Planning Organisation and a law was passed in April 1965 to provide a legal framework for funding and implementing a nationalwide program of family planning. : The second survey on family planning was conducted in the winter of 1965 and 500 women were included in this sample survey (2). The third one was conducted in Ankara Maternity Hospital in September and October of 1966 on a group of 496 patients. It is not surpring that there are differences between the findings of the two surveys since family planning education has become more wides- pread between the times when they were conducted. Because the survey in Ankara Maternity Hospital covers a more homogenous sample, it is more reliable. The paracticing of family planning which has as its prime goal the bringing down of the current 2.7 % yearly increase of population (which was 31.4 million according to the 1965 Cencus) to 20.% in the next five years. Despite the recency of family planning, the findings of the second survey, which are being made public for the first time in this paper are significant in showing the receptive attitude of the Turkish people on 484 this topic. II- Result of the Survey: a- Age of the applicants: The average age of 49% patients who wish to practice family planning is 29 (the median age is 28.85). The women who came to Ankara laternity Haspital were grouped to the 25-34 age bracket. The majority were composed of young women who desired to practice family planning. As a matter of fact, 57.9 % of the sample survey composed of 496 women were under 30. The age groups of the women who came to Ankara hospital are shown in . the table below: TABLE I Age Groups of the Sample Survey Age Groups Number of Women Percentage (%) 15-19 16 3.3 20-24 104 21.1 25-29 165 33.5 30-34 113 23.0 35-39 79 14.2 40-44 19 3.9 45 and more 5 1.0 Unknown 4 - Total 496 100.0 b- Occupation of patients: It was determined that 95.6 % of the 496 women in the sample survey were housewives. This result nust not force us to believe that family planning is practiced only by housewives. In our opinion the family planning practice is more widespread among women working outside their homes. Since these women elready know how to practice birth control, they do not feel the need to apply to hospitals. According to our statistical records women who hold profitable jobs are very few; this indicates that especially poor women want to know more about family planning methods. As a matter of fact it was estimaded that the average monthly income of patients in the experimental clinic at the Ankera laternity Hospital was #60 and even # 39 in the experimental clinic at ço- rum. (3). The survey's result show that the number of women who came to Ankara hospitel is very small. Efforts were made to find out the profession of the working women. It is obvious that the occupations fall into the low income bracket. The profession of women who came to the hospitals for birth pre- vention are shown at the table below, 485 TABLE 2 The professions of working women Occupations Number of lomen Teacher 2 Government Official 9 Domestic servant 4 Tailor 2 Nurse 3 Maid 1 Not specified 1 Total 22 ¢ - Education level: The literacy rate is very low in Turkey According to the 1965 Census, only 48.2 % of the population know how to read and write. This rate was 32,2 % for the women at the same Census. At the Ankara Hospitsl's survey the literacy of the 496 patients is 35.9 %. 318 women declared that the) don't know haw to read or to write. TABLE 3 Educational level of women in the survey Number of Women Percentage Primary Education 138 27.8 Secondary " 38 T.7 Higher " 2 0.4 Illeterates 318 64.1 Unknown - - Total 496 100.0 — d- Channel of Information: We stated already the need for informing people about birth cortrol methods through propaganda. It is noticeable that countries who are just starting to develop and suffer from rapid population increase, have been giving great importance to this media. For instance, it is possible to come across dailj, familj planning advertisenents in radio and TV programs and also in newspapers in South Korea. Ve can also say that these kind of activities will be productive in our country tor the time being. In countries where the rate of illiteracy is high the most etfective mass media is the radio. But use of it has not been sufficiently made in Tur- key. 486 71.6% of the 496 women in the sample survey, reported that learned about. birth control methods from &heir friends. 103% of women learned about. family planning methods through advertisements. Thepercentage of women who lecrned through newspapers was only 6.8%. And for 11.3%, the source of information was various. e- Duration of marrigge and its effect upon the number of children: Attempt was made to gather information about the duration of the marriages of women and number of children they possessed. Interesting replies were received. Tendency to practice birth control methods is quite weak among those who were married wor less than 3 years. But birth control methods has great interest among those who were married over ten years. It is evident that family planning is closely related to the number of children. It is a fact that as the number of children increase, tendency to practice family planning increases also. We found out from the 496 women in our survey that 4 were childless; 46.2% had either two or three children 22.0% had four and 24.2% had five children. Though there is a relation between family planning and the number of children, it is interesting to know whether the sex of children is a motivating factor in birth control or not. Replies of the questions in this respect is shown below. TABLE 4 The sex of living children No.of living children Girl Boy 1 Child 13 21 2 Children 89 113 3 " 192 192 4 " 179 257 5 and more 341 372 Total 814 955 By examining this table one can see that the number of male children is more than the number of girls. Thus among the group of 496 women interviewed the ratio is 1173 boys for 1000 girls. In the 1965 Cencus the number of boys was only 1042, showing that the number in the sample is above normal. If we take into consideration that in general families prefer sons to girls in our count-,, the women included in our survey had a sufficient number of sons alrea. . This fact might have forced them to practice family planning. The results achieved in our survey confirm thie point, therefore this aspect has a social importance. 487 f- Desire to have more children: It is a known fact that family planning is not only a matter of limiting the size of a family. Couples may wish to space their children. In such a situation the safest way is to practice family planning. To determine this point, certain questions were asked. The result was that 16.3 % of the sample women of 496, wished to have more children. On the other hand 83.7 % of the 496 women in the sample survey did not want to have any more children. These women practiced family planning to prevent probable pregnancies. This is an interesting point to find out why these women did not wish any more children. When classifying the answers included in the questionnaire to clarify this point, one could see that 90.6% of the women, did not wish any more due to economic reasons. g- Abortions: The moral side of family planning is that it is a safe and healthy method for preventing unwanted pregnancies. It cannot be denied that women try several ways to prevent pregnancies, but some of the methods are very primitive and threaten thelife of the mother. According to the report of the State Planning Organization 12.000 women lose their lives each year due to induced abortions. All these obser vations indicate that induced abortion is an important social problem in Turkey. The survey arranged by us, also indicates clearly the painful social situation of our society. 21.7 % of the 496 women interviewed stated that they had miscarriages against their will. Even within this rate 3.9 % had two and 2.1 % had three miscarriages which is aserious situation. But the most important fact though, is that the number of women who had induced abortions is very high. As a matter of fact, nearly half of the 496 women included in our sample survey (39.4 %) had induced abortions pre- viously. The induced abortion figures is indicated below: TABLE 5 Number of women who had induced abortions No. of Induced abortions Number of Women Percentage 1 15 15.4 2 56 11.5 3 28 .8 4 17 3.5 5 8 1.6 6-7 7 1.4 8-9 — — 10 and more 1 0.2 Women not having induced abortions 294 60.6 Unknown 10 — Total 496 100.0 488 In addition we notice that there is a close relation between the number of abortions and the number of living children. As a matter of fact, we found out by the results of the survey that if the number of living children is high, induced abortion rate increases too. h- Effects of infant mortalit:: It has been claimed that infant mortalities lead to new births in the family. This phenomenon can be traced easily in the underdeveloped countries. It was understood that 52.4 % of the 496 women in the sample survey did not have any infant mortality in their families. Therefore it is reasonable for families who did not have a any infant mortalities in their family to practice family planning. From * the sample survey it was determined that 25.7 % had one, 9.9 % had¥three i and 5.2 % more than four infant mortelities. It is understood that families \ who even had lost children are practicing family planning due to some several socio-economic pressures. Te, EST Aa i- Family planning application: As we have mentioned above, every family has tried and is trying some birth control method. But these methods are either very primitive, unhealthy or ineffective. Of course it is fatal to insert a feather or onion juice into the vagina. We also found out whether families were using family planning methods under the supervision of a physician or not. Although it was impossible to find out which specific method they applied. We discovered that nearly half of the 496 women in our sample survey (45,8 %) spent some effort to prevent another pregnancy. It is quite natural that primitive methods will not be successful to prevent pregnancies. It was discovered that 22.4 % of the women included in the sample survey became pregnant although they practiced these methods. We must add that the trend to apply family) planning methods depends upon the number of children living. In order to illustrate, the findings of the survey is shown below: TABLE 6 Relation between children and the practice of birth control No. of children Practicing Not practicing Total No children 3 1 4 Having one child 18 16 34 two children 56 45 101 three " 67 61 129 four " 43 66 109 five and more 41 79 120 Unknown - - 228 268 496 489 When examining the above table one can see that onl; 3 of the 496 women included in the sample survey had no children, but applied for family planning. J= Family planning means: In order to be successful in family planning practice one has to be careful in selecting the right method. This method should be safe, simple, effective, cheap and favourable to the tradition and means of the country. The choosing of a method gains special importance in a country like ours where the literacy level is below normal (4). Although there are various methods for family planning, only 5 have been chosen for the Turkish program. The first one is the spiral, the second is the oral pill, the third is the pharmaceutical creams, the fourth consists of preservatives and the fifth is abstention (5). Abstention and preservatives are since now the best known and widel) used methods in Turkey. In view of the fact that in under-developed countries women are sh) and the men are socially and economicall} superior to women, it could be assetred that family planning practiced by men tends to be more successful. But nowadays the primitive methods used by men are not favoured and men are educated in family planning methods in Turkey. We can state that preservatives (diaphragm) and pharmaceutical creams which have been used the last 10-15 years are not favoured anymore. Although the rithm method is free of charge and effective, its pBactice depends upon certain conditions (6). The widely used method presently is the oral pill and spirals, i.e. the IUD. In order to clarify this point, certain questions were asked to the persons included in our sample surve; and their answers have demonstraded that 56.4 % were using IUD's, and 42.4 % were using oral pills. The methods discussed here may not be favourable to everjone. As a matter of fact the percentage of women who stated that the) were not satisfied with the family planning methods was 2.8 %. Those who were satis- fied rated 45.3 % and the percentage from whom we could not getany results was 51.9 %. ; k- Attitude of husband: In the paternal famil; s;stem which prevails in Turkey where the decisions of husbands are absolute in family matters, the chance of success of the family planning prograr therefore depends largely upon the attitude otf husband. As a matter of fact, attemp was made to clarify this point in the 1963 survey and it Las found out that 23 % of the men favoured family planning completely and 24 % partly (8). In order to get the consent of the husband in rural areas it is essential to explein the nature of this attitude. Starting from this point, 490 preparations for family planning have been started to counduct it in the armed forces. One cannot deny the fact that the husband's consent must be achieved for practicing family planning in our society. We cannot expect a woman to go to the hospital to practice family planning without her husband's consent. As a matter of fact, 99,8 % of the 496 women included in our survey came to the hospital to practice a method after they obtained the consent of their husbends. JII-Conclusion: i- The close relation between the increase of population and social and econonko development has forced nations to attach great importance to population matters. Especially after World War II the increas in birth rates remained the same, whereas mortalit) rates began to decline in developed countries, due to medical developments and discoveries. This led to a rapid increase in population and created various social and economic problems. ; When all available resources were started to be utilized tove utilized to meet the needs of the population, scientific and modern mea- sures were sought also to slow down this rapid population increase and the idea of "family planning" emerged (9). ii- When the rapid rate of increase in Turkey broke a record in Europe, the old policy for population increase was no more satisfactory for the existing conditions. Actually the biggest problem encountered by Turkey with regard to her population is the magnitude of the natality rate. Although natality and mortality statistics for Turkey are not available, current research (10) indicates 43 and 13 per thousand respectively for the former and the latter rate. Hence, altrough the mortality rate is not high, the natality rate is even the highest in Europe. iii- The danger in Turkey is not overpopulation but the rapid rate of increase. The “family planning program" is going to attempt to slow down this high rate of increase with the help of the liberal attitude of the public. Two years of implementation of the program are over. Te cannot say that the program was very successful, in slowing down the rapid rate of increase in curtailing induced abortions, or in preventing mothers from death due to ignorance. But the majority of people are in favour and want to learn the nature, the modern and healthy methods of family planning in spite of some political resistence. The economic. recovery is a great concern of the nation; pressure resulting from overpopulation prevents economic development; this situetion is understood by the public and furthermore no religious ban exisisj 491 thereform the chance for family planning to succeed increases everyday in Turkey. iiii- There is no doubt that birth and mortality data for statistice studies must be gathered and the rate of increase and the attitude of the public towards family planning should be checked continously. Let us drew also your attentíon that one must be very careful, when one draws conclusions from descriptive results, from a survey when the number of participants is small, Nevertheless the results we achieved shows that there is a base for family planning to succeed in Turkey, especially that it is favoured by mothers who suffered to prevent pregnancies. FOOT NOTES of 1- The result this survey was first revealed at the Population Council Seminar in Istanbul on April 1964 by Bernard Berelson, Vice President of the Population Council, New York. Source, National Survey on Population P.C. Studies in Family Planning no. 5, December 1964. 2- This survey has been conduct by the author of this paper, in two hospitals of Istanbul (Zeynep Kamil and Capa) and Ankara Giilveren Clinic. 407 patients were living in Istanbul and 93 in Ankara. See: Br, Halúk Cillov: "The New trends on F.P. in Turkey" Revue of the Faculty of Economics. Vol. 25. No.3. Istanbul, 1966. 3- Source: Hayat Magazine, 16 June 1966, p.ll 4- See: Clyde V.Kiser, "Researche in Family Planning". Princeton,1962, P. 373-386 5- See for further information: Mary Calderone, "Controceptive Practice" Baltimore, 1964. This book was translated to Turkish in 1965. 6- See: C.Kiser, p.380 T- It was officially declared that 10.000 women had I.U.D. insertions and 80.000 had oral pills in Turkey, 8- Source: Bernard Berelson, p.8 9- See: A.Freedman - P.Whepton, A.Campbell, "Family Planning Sterility and Population Growth™, N.Y. 1959. 10- Source: Kenan Girtan: "Population Problems in Turkey", istanbul 1966, p. 107 492 FERTILITY CONTROL IN RURAL THAILAND: SOME RESULTS OF A DEMONSTRATION PROJECT IN POTHARAM DISTRICT by Visid Prachuabmoh and James T. Fawcett Chulalongkorn University The Population Council le Three years ago a field survey was conducted in Potharam District, Thailand, that was concerned exclusively with the topics of fertility and family planning. This survey, the first of its kind in rural Thai- land, was the initial step in a project aimed at providing the Thai Government with guidance for the development of a national population policy. A clinical action program in family planning followed the base- line survey, and two later surveys attempted to assess program accom- plishments. A. THE SETTING AND THE PROJECT DESIGN 20. Potharam District is located 80 kilometers west of Bangkok, at the edge of Thailand's fertile central plain. It is primarily a rice growing area, with agricultural households in the majority. The market center, Potharam Municipality, contains about one-ninth of the total population. The population of Potharam District was 73,628 in the 1960 census, with 8,215 residing in the municipal area.) The mean annual income is about U.S .$100,00 per year, similar to the average for all of Thailand but less than the average for the more prosperous agricultural areas of the cen- tral plain, Some small industrial activities are carried out in the dis- trict, such as the manufacture of kapok mattressess, but these are not significant economically for the district as a wholes 3e The project discussed here, designated officially as the Family Health Research Project, was operated mainly by two government agencies, the Department of Health and the National Research Council. A third agen- cy, the Population Research and Training Center of Chulalongkorn Univer- For results of the baseline survey, see Hawley, A. Ho, and Prachuabmoh, Visid, Family Growth and Family Plarning in a Rural District of Thailand, Family Planning and Porulation Programs (Berelson et. ale, Eds.), University of Chicago Press, 1966. 493 sity, carried out the most recent field survey, 4. The baseline survey was conducted in August, 1964. Family Planning clinics were established three months later in the district hospital and in one of the district's health centers. (Service was subsequently ex- panded to six health centers, plus the hospital.) At all clinics intra- uterine devices (IUD's), contraceptive pills, condoms and foam tablets were offered free. Initially, lectures about family planning were given only at the clinics, but a program of education in the villages was added within a few months of the start of the clinical programe 5. The second field survey was conducted in August, 1965, while the ac- tion program continued. The following year, in June, the special pro- ject staff was removed but the clinical program was continued as part of the local health services. A survey of attitudes of village leaders was conducted in September, 1966, and the most recent large-scale field sur- vey took place in February, 1967. 6. Two lady doctors worked full-time on the project, assisted by four public health nurses and seven female field workers, In two teams, one doctor and two nurses each, the medical staff made regular weekly rounds of the clinics, and also conducted educational meetings in the villages. The seven field workers were mainly engaged in making home visits, par- ticularly to high parity women. Specially prepared film strips, flip charts and other educational materials were used in these face-to-face educational efforts, with individuals and with groups. Mass media were not used. During the nineteen months when the project staff was in the field, a total of 156 group meetings were held, with an estimated total audience of 10,781 mostly women. In addition, 3,406 home visits were made, and all women who came to the clinics were given special instruc- tions in contraceptive methods. 7. Family planning services initially were restricted to women from Potharam District, in accordance with a government policy decision, but three months after the program started services were made available to all women regardless of their place of residence. The educational effort, however, never extended beyond the borders of Potharam. B. RESULTS FROM THE CLINICAL ACTION PROGRAM 8. The total number of acceptors at the Potharam clinics, over a 2) year period, was in excess of 7,000. As the program progressed, the pro- portion of acceptors coming from outside Potharam District increased. Table 1 shows the proportion of Potharam and non-Potharam acceptors, by method, as of 30 June, 1966. 494 TABLE 1 Number of Acceptors IUD Pills Condom Foam Tablet TOTAL ve Potharam 1,292 226 104 14 1,636 ot from Potharam| 4,049 294 15 - 4,358 TOTAL: 5,341 520 119 14 5,994 9 Nearly all of the women (90%) chose the IUD as a methods Of the IUD's inserted, however, a moderately large number are no longer in place. The retention rate for Potharam acceptors was 54.1 after 18 months, for first insertions only. This figure is similar to figures reported for other Asian countries, and, as in other countries, most of the loss is attri- buted to removals. The 18-month retention rate was substantially higher among older women, ieee, 63.8 for women 35 - 49, compared to 43.4 for women 15 - 24. 10. As shown in Table 2, most of the acceptors were in the 25 - 34 age range, with 2-5 living children. The mean number of living children for acceptors was 4.1. TABLE 2 Percent Distribution of Age and Number of Living Children of Acceptors (N = 1,750) Under | 20 - | 25 - | 30 = |] 35 = | 40 & TOTAL Age Group 20 24 29 34 39 | Over Per cent 2 15 31 27 19 6 100 % umber of Children | O | 1j 2 | 3| 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 or more TOTAL Per cent <1 | 5116 |22 | 20/15/10] 7 6 100 % C. RESULTS FROM THE SURVEYS 11. The three major surveys conducted in Potharam were of the "KAP" type (Knowledge Attitude and Practice), and incorporated many questions used in earlier KAP surveys in Taiwan and Turkey. A complete fertility history for each respondent was also recorded in each survey. 12. The surveys covered a substantial proportion of the eligible popula- tion of Potharam District. "Eligible" was defined as married and living with husband and age 20-44 for the first and second surveys. In the third survey the age range was expanded to 15-44. Households were sampled from official household registers, then interviewers called at each sampled household to locate eligible respondents. In each of the first two sur- 495 veys 25% of the registered households were sampled, with no overlap in- tended between the first and second samples. A 33% sample was taken for the third survey, without regard to whether the household had been sam- pled before or not.” The number of respondents was 1,207 in 1964, 1,337 in 1965, and 1,596 in 1967. 13. Table 3 compares characteristics of the samples for the three sur- veys on several variables: average size of household; composition of household; age distribution of respondents; median age of respondents; education of respondents; and reproductive histories (pregnancies, live births and living children). On all of these indices, the data are quite similar across the three samples. In general, deviations are not greater than would be expected from normal sampling fluctuations. Thus, it is reasonable to assume that the three samples were drawn from the same population, and that changes in response in different surveys may reflect real changes in the population under study. TABLE 3 Comparison of the Sample Populations Married Women 20 - 44 years of Age Year of Survey 1960 Census 1964 1965 | 1967 Rajburi | Whole Kingdo Age Distribution All ages (per cent) 100 100 100 100 100 20 - 24 10 9 9 18 20 25 - 29 23 18 16 24 25 30 - 34 26 23 24 24 23 35 - 39 22 28 29 18 18 Lo - 44 19 22 22 16 14 Types ofHouseholds Total (per cent) 100 100 100 Man and wife only 1 -a - Man, wife, children 53 53 55 Man, wife, children, parent(s)| 18 18 18 Man, wife, children, other relatives 6 7 6 2 Less than 0.5 per cent 2 We assume that the household registers for Potharam District are not complete, but do not know to what extent so cannot specify with cer- tainty the proportion of eligible households included in our samples. 496 TABLE 3 (Continued) Year of Survey 1964 1965 1967 Types of Households (continued) Man, wife, children, other relatives, parent (8) 18 18 15 Others 4 4 5 Median age 32.8 34.5 34.6 Average size of the household 7.0 7.2 7.0 Per cent of women with 5 years or more of formal schooling 3.0 3.0 3.0 Average number of pregnancies 4,6 5.0 he 7 Average number of live-births bb 4,6 4,5 Average number of living children 3.8 4,0 4,0 14, Table 3 not only shows similarity across the three samples, but also contains data of substantive interest. Comparison of the age distribu- tion for the three survey samples with the 1960 census data for Rajburi Province (wherein Potharam District is located) and for the whole Kingdom shows that women below age 30 are under-represented in Potharam, and women above age 35 over-represented, Potharam, it would seem, has a com- paratively old population. Perhaps this is due to out-migration of younger people seeking better economic opportunities elsewhere. The me- dian age of women age 20-44 in our 1967 sample is 34.6 years. 15. The average household in Potharam contains 5.7 members. (The average size for householde with eligible respondents was 7.0, as shown in Table 3, and the average size for households without a married woman 15-44 was 4.4) Among householas with eligible respondents, slightly more than half are composed of man, wife and children only; an additional one-third in- clude also one or more grandparents. 16. The women of Potharam do not have much education, nor do their hus- bands. Among women, 97% have had four or fewer years of schooling, and for husbands the corresponding figure is 88%. For both husbands and wives the proportion of self-reported illiteracy is 20%, according to our 1965 survey; however, even among the 80% who say they can read, fewer then 10% say that they ever do read printed materials such as newspapers, magazines or books. 17. For women age 20-44 in the 1967 sample, the average number of preg- nancies is 4.7 and the average number of living children is 4,0, For women in the 40-44 age group, those who have nearly compléted their childbearing, the average number of pregnancies is 6.7, and the average number of living children is 5.5. 497 18, Of all women interviewed in Potharam, 7 out of 10 say that they do not want any more children. The proportion changes, of course, accord- ing to how many children a woman already has. After the third child, a majority of women do not want another. 19e For women with one child, about 70% want more and 30% do not. For women with two children, the split is just about 50-50. For women with three children, 30% want more and 70% do not. The proportion of women not wanting more goes up to 86% with the fourth child, and 94% after the fifth. 20e The ideal family size in Potharam is 4.0, somewhat larger than might be expected from the data on not wanting more children. The apparent reason for this is that the ideal shifts upward along with actual family sizes The ideal for women with two children is 2.9, for instance, while the ideal for women with four is 4.2, It is only after the fifth child that the expressed ideal is lower than the actual number of children. (The ideal for women with five children is 4.4.) 21. Most Potharam women approve in principle of married couples doing something to prevent pregnancy; 52% approve of the practice of family planning without qualification, another 36% say "it depends", and only 12% voice disapproval, 22. These positive motivations and attitudes were noted also in the ini- tial baseline survey in 1964, but at that time there was widespread igno- rance about contraceptive methods, thus prohibiting effective action. A striking change in knowledge about contraception is shown in our 1967 survey, attributable in large measure to the intensive educational pro- gram carried out under the Family Health Research Project. 23. In 1964 only 5% of the women interviewed knew of any modern reversi- ble method of birth control, and another 30% knew about male or female sterilization only. In other words, 35% knew about some effective method, and most of these knew only sterilization. 24. By contrast, 79% of the women interviewed in 1967 knew at least one modern, reversible method, and another 4% knew only sterilization, for a total 83% who knew some effective method. With regard to specific modern methods, 70% of the women interviewed knew about the IUD, and 35% knew about the pill. The average number of methods known, for all women in- terviewed, was l.5. 25. Only 28% of the women interviewed had attended a village meeting where family planning was discussed, and 26% (with some overlap) had been visit- ed by a worker in their home, Other women learned about the program through discussion with friends and relatives, i.e., by word-of-mouth. More than two-thirds of the women interviewed in 1967 had heard discussion 498 on this topic in the villages, most of it favorable. Moreover, 65% of the wozen said that they had at least one friend who had tried tHe IUD. Among women who counted IUD users among their friends, the average num- ber of 1UD users known was 6.5. 26, Viomen interviewed in 1967 were asked whether they knew that a fami- ly vlanning service was available locally; 68% said that they knew of the service, and 31% said they had actually attended one of the clinics. (Not all of those who attended, however, accepted a method of contracep~ tion.) 27. The surveys conducted in Potharam contain evidence of widespread ap- rroval at tne local level for a government-sponsored birth control pro- gran. Among women interviewed in 1967, 96% expressed tn= opinion that the family planning service was good for the people and :5% felt that a similar service should be extended to all Thailand. The same questions were asked of village leaders in 1966, These respondents (village head- man and government teachers) were also in favor; 79% felt that the pro- gram was definitely good for the people in Potharam, and 83% felt that the government should expand the program to the whole kingdom. 28. At the time of the 1967 survey 130 women in the sample were using the IUD, and 19 pills. (Another 83 women had tried the IUD or pills or toth and had quito) In addition, 49 of the women had husbands who were rilized, and 67 were sterilized themselves. Another 135 women were classified as sub-fecund, according to our criteria. 2%. The number of users detected in the survey was lower than had been anticipated, considering the number of women who attended the clinics and the estimated size of the population in Potharam. Therefore, a care- ful check of survey records against clinic records was carried out, in an attempt to detect false survey respcnses. For each of the 1,229 women interviewed in 1967 who said she had never practised contraception, the clinic files were searched to determine whether she had in fact accepted some method. Our findings: forty-five women who said they had never prac-~ tised contracertion had in fact accepted some method at an earlier date, according to the medical records. The majority of these 45 women are known to nave discontinued, but some are believed to be continuing users. When these 45 women who gave false survey responses are included in our computations, there are 282 women in our sample currently using or ever used contraception (IUD's, pills, condoms or foam tablets). 3 Women classified as sub-fecund are those not practising birth con- trol who either have been married 3 or more years and never been pregnant, or have had no live birth in the past five years of marriage. 499 30. If we perform calculations using all women 20-44 as the denominator, the proportion of women in our sample surrently practising contra.eption (excluding sterilization) is 9.6%, and the proportion ever practised (ac- ceptors) is 18.1%. 3le If we define an eligible population by subtracting the sterilized and sub-fecund women from the 20-44 base population, we find 10.5% cur- rently practising and 19.8% ever practised (acceptors). 32, Finally, it is of interest ot perform a calculation with the number of sterilized cases in the numerator instead of the demoninator, i.e., to determine the proportion of eligible women age 20-44 in our sample who are doing something to prevent pregnancy. If we first substract the sub- fecund, we find that 18.7% are currently practising or sterilized, and that 27.9% are currently practising, ever practised, or are sterilized. 33. What effects might this extent of practice of birth control have up- on the birth rate? It is too early to expect significant changes, and the data available to us are inadequate to provide measures of small changes. Table 4 shows the inconsistent results obtained from an attempt to derive age specific fertility rates from the pregnancy histories in the three surveyse TABLE 4 Marital Age-Specific Fertility Rate Age of Mother Year of Survey 1964 1965 1967 20 - 24 430 492 462 25 - 29 288 440 357 30 - 34 274 370 255 35 - 39 234 305 259 | Lo - ht 113 214 178 34, One encouraging statistical change was noted in the surveys. In 1964, among women age 20-44 interviewed, 15.1% were currently pregnant. In 1965, the figure was essentially the same, 15.9%. In 1967, however, the survey showeu a substantial drop - - only 11.9% of the women 20-44 were pregnanto D. A METHODOLOGICAL PROBLEM 35. As noted earlier, 45 women gave false negative responses in answer to the question, "Have you ever practised contraception?" The total num- ber of women known to have practised contraception in the sample (in- cluding these 45) is 282. Thus, 16% (45/282) said they had never prac- tised contraception when in fact the records show that they had. This 500 finding has considerable methodological significance, with respect to the use of survey methods for evaluating fertility control programs. 36. Analyses of the survey data were conducted to attempt to define the chaeacteristics of the women who gave false responses. These analyses did not reveal any consistent patterns, i.e., the 45 women were not pre- dominantly of any one age group, they were not more or less educated than the other women in the sample, they did not tend to reside in any particular area, and they were not interviewed by a certain few inter- viewers. Only two facts of potential importance were noted: the false response cases included a high proportion of pill, condom and foam tab- let acceptors, and all of these acceptors are known to have discontinued. Thus, it appears that women who have discontinued use of a self-adminis- tered method are likely to give false responses about ever having prac- tised contraception. 37. ‘There were also a substantial number of IUD acceptors who gave false responses, the majority of whom were still using at the time of the last follow-up. Perhaps these women simply did not want it known that they were practising contraception. (The interviews were not always conduct- ed in privacy.) 38. There are many feasible reasons why women might choose not to admit the practice of contraception, when they have actually practised, but few apparent reasons why women might say they have practised when in fact they have not. Thus, there would seem to be a built-in bias toward under-reporting of contraceptive use in surveys. 39e In the event that results of a survey are used as a basis for plann- ing a family planning program, the plans could be to some degree unreal- istic if there is in fact under-reporting of contraceptive practice in the survey, For instance, targets for number of acceptors might be set higher than needed io achieve a goal, and perhaps higher than could realistically be obtained. A planning error in this direction (over- ambitious targets) is perhaps not very worrisome; potentially more se- rious, however, is the possibility that discontinuation of use may be under-estimated, thus giving a distorted view of degree of satisfaction with the program anc precluding special efforts needed to re-enlist dis- continued uses, Wherever possible, it is recommended that survey results concerning contraceptive use should be checked against available clinic records, at least for a sub-sample of respondents. 501 DEMOGRAPHIC AND FAMILY PLANNING RESEARCH NEEDS FOR LESS-DEVELOPED AREAS Joseph A. Cavanaugh, Ph. D. Le The progress of population policies and programs especially in develop- ing countries depends greatly on the growth of new knowledge in demography and family planning. Serious gaps are evident when it becomes time to con- sider the specifics of whether a population problem exists, what its dimensions are and what type of action might or should be taken. These information voids apply equally to methodological techniques for reliable demographic measurement as well as to techniques for fertility control itself. The employment of research will assist in filling these information needs. 2. Both research involving the testing of predetermined hypotheses and that involving surveys for information purposes and which may suggest hypotheses for testing should be performed because the need is so great for both d/ Time should not be wasted endlessly discussing whether demographers (who for the most part in the United States are also sociologists) should confine themselves to only pure demographic research and studies rather than to also include aspects of family planning research. 3. Research commitment in the demographic and family planning areas has been parsimonious compared to the exigency and urgency of the problem. 2/ It is part and parcel of the relatively small support and attention that the social sciencies and to a lesser degree the economic sciences generally receive from large granting agencies. The social sciences are often still not well understood. The medical and physical sciences being better appreciated, have received much more, at least in the United States. |. In the past, demographic research especially in the U.S. has received much more attention than family planning or fertility control research. Generally demographic research has been performed by university based facilities and by the Federal Government. It has emphasized the measurement of populations and techniques for doing it. Considerable research has been devoted to the relationships between population and economic and social variables. Some attempts at theory have been made. Possibly because of the availability of more reliable data, research has been more greatly focused on conditions in highly developed areas rather than less-developed areas. The results of much of this research and these studies have been utilized for pointing to the urgency for developing national population policies and 3 502 family planning programs by some countries, both developed and less-developed. 5. On the other hand, family planning research has just begun and has been generally descriptive in character, 17 Some of this research has centered around KAP studies (knowledge, attitudes and practices) and evaluation techniques for ongoing programs. The family planning program in Taiwan has been a leader in the latter area. Some attention is being paid to techniques for measuring fertility and population growth in general as a tool for evaluating family planning programs. 6. Basic objectives for a research and studies program in population and family planning are to provide (1) knowledge that will have predictive value, (2) knowledge that will contribute to systematic theory, (3) data for the development of country population policies, (L) information for the most efficient and effective implementation of action programs, and (5) informa- tion designed to solve a variety of administrative and technical problems. 7. Since the demand for research is so great and the resources relatively limited the following guidelines are suggested for the formulation of re- search programs: 1. Emphasis should be placed on that research which is important for (a) advancing needed population knowledge, (b) determining country policies, and (c) evaluating action family planning programs. 2. Priority should be given to research that will (a) provide maximum usefulness within a minimum length of time and (b) provide information that will have effective impact for fertility reduction at minimum cost and time. “3. A coordinated approach to research should be taken in which major resources focus on common objectives. L. It must be recognized that research techniques employed by developed areas cannot always be applied; often new techniques must be invented. 8. On occasion the statement is made that enough research and studies have been made and that sufficient knowledge is available to carry out successively action programs in most situations. Although a few countries or areas are being "successful" in fertility reduction programs, most are not, partly because detailed data and information are not yet reliable. Examples of information vacuums are: 1. What is and how does one measure the total "contraceptive etficiency" by all methods in a given area? How does it vary in space and time? What is the most effective "mix" of con- traceptive methods? 503 2. What family planning administrative model or combination of models is most efficient for producing desired results? What are the extent of the deficiencies and limitations of the "public health model", i.e., public health facilities including maternal-child health clinics. 3. To what extent are birth rates influenced by high rates of illegitimacy? L. What will be the effect on family stability in societies that change from a large family structure to a smaller one? 5. How can reliable demographic data, i.e., census and vital statistics, be collected in the shorter time at less cost? What are the most efficient models for measuring fertility change? What techniques are most efficient for estimating population parameters where data are poor or non-existent? 6. Under what conditions will reducen in fertility actually elevate socio-economic indices. 2 7. What constitutes an ideal ecological or symbiotic balance between population and resources? How is over-population and under-population properly defined? 9. Research and study findings are needed to help less-developed countries assess their population problems, develop policies and establish efficient action programs within the limitations of their resources and political surroundings. Some countries that lack even basic data will need at the outset, descriptive demographic studies. Other countries where actual pro- grams have started will need action program research. Still others in which fertility control raises sensitive issues will need abortion and other health related research. 10. The scope of research and survey needs is very wide. L/ It may be roughly classified as follows: 1. Demographic research, studies and statistics - (for country policy formulation and program guidance) a. Census and vital statistics data, research on methodology for collection, testing reliability and adjusting raw data. b. Demographic research in population dynamics such as family composition, parity, fertility, migration, life tables, methodology for collection, analysis and estimation. Ce d. 504 Research on surveys of knowledge, attitudes, and practices relating to family planning and methodology for improving data reliability. Fertility model building. Operational Research: a. Pilot research projects to test action program planning models, organizational forms, costs, staffing, administrative procedures, impact of field approaches upon adoption of practices. Communication research in order to test and improve communication-education work with the public and within the program staff. Research on contraceptive adoption rates and speed of spread at various stages of program activities under differing conditions and cultures. Evaluation research designed to measure impact of a program on birth rates and population growth. Contraceptive requirements to bring about a given reduction in crude birth rates taking into account parity, age distribution and contraceptive efficiency. Training Research: a. Development, testing, and demonstration of effective approaches, methods, staffing, timing, and facilities for training essential program staff of the country in countries having divergent conditions, Testing and development of effective methods and means for training-education in population work for foreign nationals at selected U.S. universities, other institutions to provide (1) essential training to nationals whose countries lack adequate training facilities, and (2) to increase and improve in- stitutional capabilities for the future. Special Research: a. General improvement and testing of research and statistical methodology suited to conditions in developing countries. 505 b. Research on cultural and social correlates affecting progress of family planning programs and motivation towards adoption of practices. c. Research on effectiveness, acceptability, and costs of various methods of contraception to furnish data for guidance of programs and technical and material assistance. d. Research on biology of reproduction, research on the development of improved methods of contraception. e. Research on epidemiology of abortion, development of measurement techniques. f. Relationships between population and fertility levels and education, physical and human resources and other economic, social and cultural factors. g. Research on the socio-cultural constraints to the adoption of individual and collective family planning practices. 11. Of special interest to demographers is research directed towards solution of the problem of reliable demographic data acquisitions through current sample surveys, improved survey methodology and other methods. . It has been suggested that a general theory for the measurement of popula- tion change be developed by means of systematic hypotheses testing. The problem arises in the less-developed countries because of (1) the relatively high cost and administrative difficulty of taking decennial censuses; (2) the rapid out-dating of census statistics because of frequent long delays in tabulation and analysis; (3) the lack of or non-existence of efficient administrative machinery for vital registration and vital statistics collec- tion and (L) the relatively high recording or response error. The result of these conditions is that reliable data for demographic measurement including fertility change is not available. New, more appropriate methodology which would result from intensive research is needed. 1%, Although some models for measuring fertility change and other demographic aspects based on indirect methods have been developed, survey techniques still apparently show the greatest promise, However, the design of survey methodology needs much improvement. Some events such as stillbirths, early infant death, illegitimate births, abortion and sexual activity have proven difficult to measure. 13. Response to questionnaires and schedules often do not conform to reality. Even age is sometimes not reported correctly. Biased responses, due to faulty memory, lack of interest or interviewer indifference are not infrequent. Techniques are needed to reduce these types of biases. 506 1h. Field experimentation on different models or combinations of models for measuring fertility change is necessary. For example, one model for acquiring adequate vital statistics may be a sample vital registration model; another may be a continuous longitudinal model in which repeated visits are made on a sample basis to acquire data over a long period of time. 15. Population laboratories for (1) formulating the problems and suggesting research methodology and (2) field testing the methodology should be supported and established without delay. This would provide the necessary facilities for performing a variety of research badly needed in the demographic and family planning areas. 1/ For the purpose of this paper demographic and family planning research may be broadly defined as inéluding the scientific testing of hypotheses that lead to the development of theory, measurement studies that describe conditions quantitatively and the evaluation of population policies and family planning program models. 2/ Saunders, Lyle, "Family-Planning Research and Evaluation: Needs for the Future, Ford Foundation, New York, New York, 1965. 3/ In recent years, more attention has been paid to conducting research and making studies on demographic aspects of less-developed countries as evidenced by the comparatively large number of papers presented at the World Population Conference in Belgrade in 1965. L/ For example, see Berelson, Bernard, et al, (Edit), Family Planning and Population Programs, Proceedings of the International Conference on Family Planning Programs, Geneva, August, 1965 (Part Four, Research and Evaluation. 5/ Success is usually defined as measurable decreases in growth rates in a minimum period of time. 6/ See reference in Note 2 for additional unanswered questions. 7/ For other discussion on research needs see Freedman, Ronald "The Transition from High to Low Fertility, challenge to Demographers", Population Index, Vol. 31, No. L, October, 1965, pp. L17-430; Population Commission, UNESCO, "Report of the AD HOC Committee of Experts of Programmes in Fertility", E/CN. 9/203 December 22, 1966; Stephan, F.F., "The use of Sampling in Estimating Population change and Vital Rates for - Developing Countries", paper presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Cincinnati, 1967. 507 INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR THE SCIENTIFIC STUDY OF POPULATION SYDNEY CONFERENCE 21st - 25th August 1967 SESSION VI "MORTALITY TRENDS IN ECAFE REGION WITH PARTICULAR REFERENCE TO THE IMPLICATION OF RAPID MORTALITY DECLINES FOR MORTALITY PATTERNS" Moderator s Tye Cho Yook Wednesday, 23rd August, 1967 3.00 p.m. to 5.00 p.m. 508 509 The Isolation of Various Components of the New Zealand Maori Mortality Decline, 1945-1961 (1) 1. by D. I. Pool, Assistant Professor Department of Sociology University of Western Ontario London, Canada Introduction lea. The indigenous Maori population is New Zealand's largest minority ethnic group. This century they have enjoyed virtually the same stat- utory rights as non-Maoris, the few discriminatory clauses in legislation almost always operating in their favour. However, there has been social and mgterial inequality, for until recently the Maoris were a relatively poor rural population with high levels of mortality, whereas the per-capita income of non-Maoris was high, they were predominantly urban dwellers and from the 1870's until about World War II had the highest level of life-expectation in the world. l.b. Since World War II Maori lifeways have been altered radically. Migration to urban areas has occurred at an ever-accelerating pace; there have been major improvements in their housing conditions and stan- dards of living; and Maori mortality rates have declined rapidly. l.c. The changes in the mortality patterns of the 167,000 Maoris re- corded at the 1961 Census of New Zealand would pass almost unnoticed among ECAFE region populations were it not for the combination of sev- eral unusual characteristics: l.c.i. . As noted already, the Maoris have had high mortality levels until recently; this they have in common with all ECAFE populations except the European-descent populations of Oceania. l.c.ii. Unlike most other high mortality populations in the reginn, life-tables, constructed directly from vital and census data, cover the period immediately preceding and through their mortality transition. l.c.iii. Disease and age-specific mortality rates can be calcul- 2. 3. 510 ated for every year from 1920 onwards. The inaccuracies in the early data are such that it is best to restrict the analysis of rates to the period from 1945 to the present, althqueh it is poss- ible to use certain life-table functions for 1936. l.c.iv. Finally, over the entire period since European contact there is no record of cholera, smallpox (except for one brief outbreak in 1913), typhus, malaria, or any of the other great "apocalyptic" scourges which have swept most of the ECAFE region throughout recorded history. For Maoris, the high mortality rates of earlier years and the recent declines have resulted from - changes in the levels of tuberculosis, and other infectious and respiratory disorders, diarrhoea, dysentery, typhoid and maternal mortality. l.d. Recent decreases in mortality for the "apocalyptic" diseases followed bio-chemical advances which permitted public health workers, in brief and comparatively cheap operations, to reduce the potentiality for morbidity from these causes of death, to cure sufferers and to cnn- trol environmental links in the organ-host cycle. By contrast, some of the diseases to which Maoris have been exposed most frequently, parti- cularly tuberculosis, can not be eradicated so readily, yet most of the overall decline in mortality came from decreases in these causes. lee. The characteristics of this pattern of decrease will be considered in the remainder of this paper which will be concerned with two factors: (i) changing disease patterns and the agents of change; (ii) changing age-sex differentials of mortality. Maori Mortality Trends 1769-1961 An historical analysis" carried out by the author speculates that the Maoris probably had moderately high levels of mortality at the time of European contact (1769), and no immunity against either "childhood" ailments, such as measles, or tuberculosis, influenza and other diseases introduced between then and 1854, Mortality levels became so high that the crude death rate probably reached 40 or more per 1,000 in normal years and up to 70/1,000 when widespread epidemics occurred (particularly in 1854 and 1875-76). From a level of about 40/1,000 in the 1870's, the crude death rate gradually declined to 17.3 per 1,000 (males) and 15.5 (females) in 1945. But in the sixteen years from 1945 to 1961, this rate dropped radically to 9.3 (males) and 7.2 (females). The recent de- crease brought about major changes in life-expectation at birth, as is shown in Table 1. Changing Disease Patterns 3.a. The most important single contribution to the improvement in 511 life-expectation came from a decrease in the tuberculosis death rate, as is shown in Table 2. Excluding children under 5 years of age, the gignificance of this nne cause was even greater, for 79% of the de- crease in the death rate of Maori males aged five years and over in the period 1945-56 came from declines in tuberculosis, while the figure for females was 75%. Tuberculosis frequently takes a chronic form among adults so the emphasis in public health programmes was towards early diagnosis and cure of the disease, in addition to prevention. These objectives were achieved by the widespread use of mass x-ray facilities and by vaccination campaigns, modes of control which could be introduced without straining unduly the economy of any country in the ECAFE region. 3.b. At ages 0-4, in common with other diseases, tuberculosis more often takes an acute form. At this age-group, and particularly at in- fancy, most of the mortality decline occurred among those acute diseases which are amenable to control by new methods introduced in the post-war period. For example, some infectious and respiratory disorders, and certain acute diseases of the digestive system can be treated by the use of antibiotics. The post-war application of these methods of chemo-ther- apy, along with controls in the environment which depended on the utili- sation of recently developed pesticides, has typified most ECAFE coun- tries. 3.c. Almost everywhere in the region a major result has been declines in mortality at all ages 0-4 except at the first month of life. Death- rates at this age usually undergo a less radical decrease because the diseases which most frequently bring death to neonates respond, to, com- pletely different methods of control. Indeed, the Maoris afe) the" only population whose neonatal deathrate has declined with relative rapidity to a dow level in response to an increase from 176 in 1937 to 92% in 1960 in the proportion of confinements which occur in hospital. This almost unique change occurred only because of the implementation of social welfare measures in conjunction with heavy expenditure on capital equipment and buildings, but such a programme is probably beyond the capacity of most developing economies at present. 2.d. Thus the recent Maori mortality decline has resulted from three types of disease control: Je.dei. The utilisation of readily available, and reasonably cheap and efficient prophylactics and curatives, primarily anti- biotics, the primary emphasis being on the eradication of acute disorders. This type of control is found throughout the ECAFE region. 3.d.ii. The introduction of public health measures requiring the use both of preventives and of mass methods of diagnosis to reduce morbidity from diseases such as tuberculosis, which affect the levels of mortality at ages five and over. A number of ECAFE 4, 512 countries are probably about to implement, or have implemented such a programme. 3ed.iii. The exposure of the entire populace to medical attention of a high standard, involving personnel, buildings and, in general proportionately high levels of expenditure on social overheads. 3.e. In view of the impending importance of the second of these three types of control for ECAFE countries, it is necessary to study the effects of such a decline on age and sex differentials of mortality. Changing Age/Sex Differentials k.,a. In 1945 female life-expectancy was below male, but by 1956 this had changed (Table I). Furthermore, as is a common accompaniement of an increase in life-expectation, the gap between males and females widened; in 1956 there had been a difference of 1.5 years, but by 1961 women had an average life-expectation at birth 2.3 years greater than males. These shifts in 8. resulted from changes in the probabilities of surviv- orship at exact ages 25 to 50 years. 4,b. Throughout the period, males at various ages had higher survivor- ship probabilities than females who had reached the same age, but this was far less frequent in 1956 than in 1945, as is shown on Table 3. In particular, on the abridged life-table higher , p _ values for males were found at all exact ages between 25 and 503% Tis vas also the age- span at which higher female than male deathrates occurred for a number of causes of death, as is recorded in Table 4. Among these diseases, it has been a decline in the tuberculosis deathrate during the period 1945 to 1956 which has been the major factor in the change in the pattern of sex-differentials in _ p _ values at ages 25, 30 and 35. By contrast, males continued to hate a higher chance of survivorship at 40, 45, 50 and 55, which was a function of high female death rates for degenerative diseases, particularly circulatory disorders, recorded declines in which were partly an artifact of improving certification. b,c. There were three further shifts of importance at ages five and above in this period. Firstly, there were differential changes in the mortality rates at each age-group. To exemplify this, Table 5 gives the percentage decline in the function n q x at each age. 4.d. Secondly, there was a resultant change in the percentage distribution of deaths within the age group 5-70+, as is shown in Table 6, 4,e. Finally, all these shifts led to completely different patterns of survivorship over long spans in the life-cycle. 4,e.i. Thus, in 1945 the probability that a woman would survive from the beginning to the end of her reproductive period (from 15 5. 513 to 50 years) was only .67083, but by 1961 this had risen to .83929. Rather less dramatic was a change in the probability that, having reached the end of childbearing, she would then survive to an old age (65 years); 15 P 59 "es .58959 in 1945, and had risen to .62460 in 1956. -- 4,e,ii. For males the major interest is survival within and through the years they are in the labour force, say from 15 to 65 years. Relevant probabilities are presented in Table 7. Conclusion 5.8. It is obvious that Maori experiences can not be applied directly to other larger ECAFE populations with less adecuate data covering short time-spans. However, laori data do permit the analysis of one type of minor secondary mortality transition, which could occur after major breakthroughs in public health have run their course and the initial rapid declines in mortality have begun to decelerate. This would in- volve a shift in emphasis from eradicating acute disorders to reducing age-specific mortality rates at five years and over from chronic dis- eases such as some forms of tuberculosis. To achieve this reduction for Maoris, New Zealand was able to utilise and extend an existing in- frastructure of personnel, buildings and institutions, and to channel a significant proportion of its national income to social security. The heavy expenditure on social welfare measures benefitted both Maoris and non-lleoris, of course, but this is in keeping with an underlying national ethos that every resident has the right of equal access to adequate standards of free medical care. Thus, Maoris and other low- income groups, who had been underprivileged in this regard, obtained the same exposure as persons in middle and upper income brackets. 5.b. Within the ECAFE region there are different types of existing public health infrastructures, while there are variations in the rela- tive priority which can be given to capital formation in the public health field as well as to heavy expenditure on social overheads in general. Much can be done, of course, even with limited resources, but Maori experience suggests that a rapid reduction in the mortality add morbidity rates for chronic disorders occurring among sections of the population aged five years and over may be achieved only through a high level of investment of this type. 5.C. Once rapid declines in acute infectious diseases have occurred the major reducible causes of mortality are these chronic disorders. Few ECAFE populations have data giving deaths by cause, but, again if the Maori mortality transition is at all relevant, the levels of mortality from reducible chronic causes may be much higher than is generally rec- ognised. The Maori tuberculosis deathrate, for example, was at the level of 400 per 100,000 before the decline occurred. 514 Footnotes: le 2. 3. 5. This paper is derived from vork carried out on a Ph.D. dissertation, The Maori Population of New Zealand, at The Australian National Univ- ersity under the supervision of Prof. W. D. Borrie, to whom grateful acknowledgement is made. The idea of investigating in detail shifts in age-sex differentials of mortality came from a conversation about Maori life-tablesI had with Dr. J. G. Blacker of London School of Economics, while Dr. J. F. Kantner, of The University of Western Ont- ario has criticized a rough draft. I would like to thank them both, although I take full responsibility for any conclusions reached in this paper. For a comparative study see Rose, R. J. lMaori-Furonean Standards of Health, Special Report No. 1, N.Z. Dept. of Health, Wellington. (1960) In 1934, there were changes in registration procedure which improved the accuracy of data, but there continued to be under-registration, in particular, of neo-matal infant deaths. This affects the value of certain life-table functiogs (e.g. _ p 2) but has comneratively little effect on the figures for e, presented in Table I, See Footnote 1. The decline at neonatal ages is discussed in Pool, D.I., Postwar Trends in Maori Population Growth, Population Studies (In Press); Hospitalization rates are given in Foster, F.H., laori Patients in Mental Hospitals, Special Report No. 8, N.Z. Dept. of Health, Wellington (1562). See Table 2, note (c). 515 Table I: Life-expectation at Firth: Maoris, 1936, 1945, 1951, 1956, 1961 Year Males Females 1936 16.3 46.0 1945 48.8 48.0 1951 54.1 55.9 1956 57.2 58.7 1961 59.1 61.4 Note: These life-tables were constructed, as in the case of all calculations presented in this paper, from death registration data averaged for a three year period around a census. The 1936 and 1945 life-tables were construc- ted by the writer. The 1951, 1956 and 1961 Tables by the N. 2. Dept. of Statistics and published in Appendix B of the census volumes. 516 ay Table 2: 1045-1956 - The percentage of the decline in the total crude death arising from declines in the crude death rates of various groups of diseases Diseases Percentages Males Females 1. All 'Infectious & Parasitic Diseases' except TP, but including influenza 17.€ 9.2 2. Tuberculosis (all forms) 43.2 19.3 3, All diseases of the respiratory system except influenza 22,3 13.7 4. Degenerative diseases, i.e. diseases of all parts of the cardiovascular system, except Rheumatic fever; malignant «© © and benign necvnlasms: "senility" 10,4 12.3 5. Diarrhoea and related diseases 8.7 7.3 €. "Diseases of early infancy" 0.6 1.9 v + Remainder, e.g. Rheumatic diseases; remaining diseases of the digestive system; congenital malformations; "symptoms" and other ill-defined causes of death; diseases of the genito-urinary system; remaining diseases of the nervous system and sense organs; diseases of the blood and blood-forming organs; allergic, endocrine, metabolic and nutritional disorders; for females, maternal mortality; (et ) etc. 2.1 ¢ Ad Total 99.9 39.9 (a The age-structure was similar at both dates; the population is, in fact quasi-stable. (Bb) Deaths from accidents and violence are excluded. Their rates shoved an. increase in the period, © These data contain a built-in bias. The crude death from the i111 defined cause "senility" was only 7/100,000 in 1955-57, as against €2/100,000 in 194L LG. It is obvious that many deaths attributed to senility, in fact, resulted from tuberculosis, bronchitis, pneumonia, influenzag and other causes. By 1956 these causes had been correctly classified, so the percentage of the decline attributed to Cause 4 is too high; while those of Causes 1, 2, 3 and 7 are probably understated slightly. {> The sex differential results from the inclusion of maternal mortality in the data for females. c€ col. J, Table 4. 517 Table 3: Maori life-tables, 1944-47 and 1995-57 n P x values 1944-16 1955-57 jze-zroun Yales Females Males Females 0 .906 (.502)* 1920 (.917) 9) 1933 949 1-4 939 947 .980 .982 5-9 976 «976 .989 +994 10-14 .980 977 993 .991 15-19 .962 963 1987 .990 20-24; .950 .953 984 .987 25-29 959 950 .980 .986 30-34 969 958 975 953 35-59 956 941 971 973 LO-LL 946 935 965 954 45-49 1936 1913 944 .927 50-54 .911 868 .910 .897 55-59 .856 .868 874 .862 60-64 .825 .783 794 .801 65-69 757 777 726 .738 70-75 695 591 L661 672 75-79 597 516 589 597 80-84 1369 .489 470 496 (a) Using puolished data p ° values for 1944-47 are too high because of - , cver-registration of births in 1916. Figures in brackets are those obtained 1946 when adjustments are made to 3 . Table 4: Age-specific Death Rates‘): Grouped Causcs (rates per 10,000, mid-year population) ®) of Death, 1944-46 and 1955-57 Age-group Infectious Tuberculosis Respiratory Degenerative Diarrhoea Diseases of Remaining Accidents diseases diseases diseases etc. early jnfancy diseases ¿€ Violence 1 5 ; 7 me f. m. f. m. fo. m. f. m. f. : Me f. Me f. me f. 0-4 í 1945 51 45 31 26 160 124 5 5 53 47 5 55 50 52 40 13 lo 1956 13 10 3 3 55 23 6 2 22 157 6 32 33 26 16 14 5-14 1945 3 3 14 24 3 6 5 3 2 1 N.A. N.A. 9 8 8 3 1956 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 3 - = _N.A. N.A. 5 4 8 3 15-24 (e) 1945 3 4 5 62 6 2 7 6 - - N.A. N.A. 4 6 16 3 1956 1 2 1 3 _4 2. 4 5 = - MA. NA. 4 6 16 4 25-44 (e) 1945 5 2 42 52 5 6 14 2 1 - NA. NA. 5 26 13 1 1956_ 1 2 7 2 5 3 14 18 - = NA N.A. 8 14 19 2 145-64 (e) 1945 6 10 53 61 21 20 110 158 - N.A. N.A. 23 29 11 = 1956 6 72 2 14 20 33 109 140 = =__N.A. N.A. 34 42 21 5 654 19) 19/45 33 15 66 81 72 66 650 721 13 15 N.A. N.A. 66 88 26 15 1956 11 E 52 27 166 151 597 _ 638 - 2 MA. N.A. 115 10317 Z (a) Numbers ara so small that wider age-gcoups than normal have been used here. over a 3-year period. (b) Groups as in Table 2, excopt for (8). Deaths have been averaged (e) Males have higher rotor accident, and, more importantly, job accident, death rates than do females. Any increases must do due to (a) increases in car usago acd (b) the movement of laoris into dangerous occupations (sop of workmen in the forestry industries aro Maoris). (d) Although rates muy be high, the population at rig at age-group 65+ is so small that the conteibolion 4" declinos in the crudo death rato is vory clight. See alse noto I++ Table 2, BTS 519 Table 5: Percentage Change in Life-table nx Values Between 1945 and 1956: New Zealand Maoris (A11 values are muug, unless otherwise noted.) Exact Age Males Females o 32 39 1 67 66 5 54 75 10 65 él 15 66 73 20 68 72 25 51 72 39 19 60 35 34 54 40 35 29 45 13 16 50 +1 22 55 13 +5 60 +18 8 65 +8 +17 70 +11 20 75 +2 17 80+ 16 1 520 Table 6: Maoris Five Years and Above: Percentage Distribution of Deaths by Age Age-group Males Females 1055 1956 1945 1956 5- 9 7.8 L.9 7.2 2.9 10-14 5.4 2.7 6.0 2.9 15-19 (21.4) 8.2 (12.0) 4.4 (20.8) 7.6 (8.7) 2.9 20-24 7.4 4.0 8.0 4.9 25-29 5.4 4.4 7.0 3.2 30-34 3.8 44 4.9 3.2 35-39 (21.6) 5.0 (17.0) 4.2 (25.9) 6.0 (16.3) 5.0 Lo, 4.4 4.2 4.7 6.2 L5-Lg 5.2 6.8 5.4 9.2 50-54 4.6 6.8 5.4 7.7 55-59 (21.4) 7.2 (25.8) 8.0 (20.2) 4.7 (32.3) 9.2 60-64 6.8 9.7 6.8 8.5 65-69 7.8 10.4 5.6 9.7 20+ (35.3) 20.7 (45.0) 24.9 (33.0) 20.6 (42.9) 24.7 (99.7) 99.7 (99.8) 99.8 (99.9) 99.9 (100.2) 100.2 Table 7: The Probability of surviving long spans in the life-cycle: Maori males, 1945 and 1961 1945 1961 35 P 15 = .71920 35 P 15 = .81584 45 P 15 = .56051 45 P 15 = .65606 50 P 15 = .46238 50 P 15 = .52322 521 THE SIGNIFICANCE OF DIFFERENCES IN PATTERNS OF MORTALITY FOR PROJECTIONS OF POPULATION K. G. Basavarajappa Department of Demography The Australian National University . As INTRODUCTION le In recent years, the availability of "model life tables" as research tools has markedly enlarged the scope of demographic research in the developing countries, In particular great ade vances have been made in the techniques of estimating the levels of fertility and mortality with the help of "model life tables" and the "stable" or "quasi-stable" nature of the populations in areas with deficient viatal registration [1]. Many sets of "model life tables" have been in use: the set prepared by the United Nations and that of four families designated as models "West", "North", "East" and "South" prepared by Coale and Demen at the Office of Population Research, Princeton University [2,3 . The United Nations Set has been based on 158 life tables covering roughly the period between 1900 and 1950 spread over many coun- tries in Africa, North America, South America, Asia, Europe and Oceania, Three of the four families of Princeton Set, viz, "North", "East" and "South" summarise mortality patterns char- acteristic of regions of Europe, and the fourth, viz, "West" expresses an age pattern of mortality common to 21 countries = Australia, Canada, Israel, Japan, New Zealand, South Africa, Taiwan, the U.S.A., and 13 countries in Western Europe, This "West" family has been based on 125 life tables, 2. In the opinion of the authors of the Princeton series, subject to some reservations, the "model life tables" may be used as substitutes for tables calculated by the usual actuar. ial methods in applications involving populations within the "regions", This substitution is especially useful for standard demographic calculations such as population projections, These four families of "model life tables" may also provide a basis for estimating life tables in populations outside of the ones that underlie the model tables themselves, The authors also suggest the use of "West" family in the usual circumstances of developing countries where there is no reliable guide to the age-~pattern of mortality that prevails, However, the very lack 522 of data on the prevailing pattern of mortality for a given pop- ulation renders the imposition of a model mortality pattern a risky enterprise, ‘ 3. In a recent study, the projections of population for a group of selected countries in the ECAFE region were prepared by using the "West" family of model life tables [4]. However, when unprecedented declines in mortality have been taking place in some of these areas, the pattern may not confine to one single family of life tables, Because of this and the absence of a reliable guide to the pattern of mortality in many of these areas, it would be desirable to know the magnitudes of differences involved in projected populations with regard to total numbers, their composition, birth and death rates, had another family been used instead of model "West", 4, The differences in estimates of mortality and fertility due to differences in age-patterns of mortality have been examined by Coale and Demeny, These are summarised below in Table 1. Table 1 Percentage deviations of estimated birth and death rates based on models "North", "East" and "South" from those based on model "West" for a test female stable population with an expectation of life at birth of 40 years ("west" Level 9), a gross reproduction rate of 3,00 and the mean age of fertility of 29 years Percentage Deviations in Meinl Birth Rate Death Rate Srivatlon North East South | North East South Census survival rates 4,04 9,44 12,58 7.69 17.95 23,93 Stable population based on c(x) and r 2,25 11,91 11.91 4,27 22,65 22,65 > Child survival rates and age distribution 4,49 1.35 3.60 13,25 -11.54 =5,56 Source: Computed from Tables 6, 8 and 9 given in Coale and Demeny, Methods of Estimating Fertility and Mortality from Censuses of Population (unpublished manuscript), Princeton University, 1966, pp.119-126. 523 It may be seen that except in the case of death rate based on models "East", and "South" derived by the method of child sure vival rates and age distribution, in every other case, the model "West" gave lowest estimates of birth and death rates as compared with those of "North", "East" and "South", B. THE PROBLEM 5e The purpose of this paper is to examine how the projected populations based on models "North", "East" and "South" differ from that based on model "West" with respect to total numbers, their composition by sex and age, the birth and death rates, At a later stage, it is intended to include the projections of population based on United Nations "model life tables” for purposes of similar comparisons, It may, however, be expected that the projections based on United Nations "model life tables" will be nearer to those based on model "West" than to those based on models "North", "East" or "South", as model "West" summarises the mortality experience of residual populations in many areas of the world after separating the persistent and deviant mortality experiences characteristic of regions of Europe, As there is no satisfactory procedure for the selection of an appropriate family of "model life tables" for a given pop- ulation with unknown mortality pattern, a study of the differ- ences involved in the selection of one family instead of another is considered useful, However, it must be noted that the study of differences is confined to the four families of well estab- lished patterns of mortality, though there is no reason to believe that these cover the entire range of variability in age patterns of mortality in populations under different circumstances, C. THE METHOD 6. The method may be briefly described as follows: a. A test stable population classified by sex and age in groups of 5 years with an expectation of life at birth (es) of 30 years ("West" Level 5), a gross reproduction rate (G.R.R.) of 3,00 and the mean age of fertility (m) of 29 years was projected with: constant fertility, a sex-ratio at birth of 105 males to every 100 females, and a declining mortality as meas-— ured by an increase in ed of one year per annum according to models "West", "North", "East" and "South" at intervals of 5 years by the component method [5]. The numbers of males and females in each age group, the-total population, the estimated birth and death rates, the proportional distributions at the end of 5, 10 etc, years of projected populations based on 524 models "North", "East" and "South" were compared with those based on model "West", Some of the percentage deviations observed are presented in Annexure Tables 2 to 6, The deviations observed are due to differences in patterns of mortality, because at each level of mortality, the e8 for females is identical and that for males only very slightly different in all four families of life tables. be To see whether the deviations vary with patterns of fertility, the procedure in 6a, was repeated by projecting the test stable population with the same levels of e8 and G.R.R,, but with the schedule of fertility corresponding to the mean age 33 years, C, Also, to see how the deviations vary with changing initial level of mortality, test stable population with e8 of 42,5 years ("West" level 10), a G.R.R. of 3,00 corresponding to mean age of fertility of 29 years was projected according to each family of life tables, and comparisons made as in 6a, In all these comparisons, model "West" has been taken as standard and all other models compared with this, However, one could take any other model as standard and compare the remaining with that, The conclusions would not be different from those arrived at in this study. D. THE RESULTS 7e The results are briefly summarised below, a, Total Population i, When the initial expectation of life at birth is low, in the case of short and medium~term projections, i,e, up to 20 to 25 years, the projected total populations based on models "North', "East" and "South" tend to be higher, while those of long-term lower when compared with that based on model "West", In short and medium-term projections, the differences are less than one per cent with the exception of model "South", while in the long- term projections they exceed one per cent, and show a tendency to increase with time (see Annexure Table 2), ii, In medium-term projections, the overestimation of total population tends to be higher when mean age of fertility is higher (or fertility pattern older) than when it is lower (or fertility pattern younger), In long-term projections, the underestimation of total population tends to be smaller when mean age of fertility is higher (see Annexure Table 2), 525 iii, As compared with slight overestimation in the case of short and medium-term projections at lower initial levels of ed, the models "North", "East" and "South" tend to underestimate the total population at higher initial levels of ed (see Annexure Table 5). b. Population by Sex The overestimation of females in projections based on models "North" and "East" as compared with those in projections based on model "West" tends to be higher than the corresponding over- estimation of males in short and medium-term projections, whereas the underestimation of males tends to be higher than that of females in long-term projections, As compared with this, for model. "South", the overestimation of males were higher in short and medium—term, and underestimation lower in long-term pro- jections than those of females, In long-term projections, the underestimation of both males and females based on models "North", "East" and "South" increase with time (see Annexure Table 4). Ce Population by Age i, In general, the children under 15 years and young adults tend to be underestimated in projections based on models "North", "East" and "South", while those of older ages, 50 years and above, overestimated when compared with those in projections based on Model "West" (see Annexure Tables 3 and 4), The under. estimation in younger age groups in most cases was less than 3 or 4 per cent, but in some cases as much as 7 or 8 per cent, In older years, the overestimation in some age groups (e.g. 70 and over) was as much as 30 per cent (see Annexure Table 3). The results were similar for projections based on older schedule of fertility and on higher initial level of eo, though in this latter case the deviations tend to be slightly smaller (see Annexure Table 6). ii, Comparisons based on proportional distributions showed similar results, and the deviations were not very different from those presented in Annexure Tables 3 and 4 iii, The underestimation of persons in younger and early adult ages may be a reflection of generally lower death rates at each level of mortality of model "West" in these ages as compared with those of models "North", "East" and "South", Similarly, the overestimation of persons in older ages a reflection of generally higher death rates of model "West" in these ages as compared with those of models "North", "East" and "South", 526 d, Crude Birth Rate Though the schedule of age~specific fertility rates was kept constant, the percentage deviations in birth rate were not zero, Slight differences have arisen due to differences in patterns of mortality, and the resulting differences in age-distributions, In short and medium-term projections based on models "North", "East" and "South", the birth rate tends to be slightly higher, while in long-term projections lower than that based on model "West" (see Annexure Tables 1 and 5), e, Crude Death Rate With the exception of projections in the first 5 or 10 years based on models "East" and "South", the death rate based on models "North", "East" and "South" tends to be higher than that based on model "West", and the difference between them increases with time. It may also be noticed that the differences tend to be larger when mean age of fertility schedule is lower or the initial e8 higher, At the end of 50 years, the overestimation in death rate ranges from 12 to 33 per cent, the maximum being that of model "South" (see Annexure Tables 1 and 5), E, CONCLUSIONS 8, From the above results, we may draw the following conclusions, a, As far as the total population is concerned, in medium~term projections, i.e, up to 20 to 25 years, the differences in patterns of mortality do not seem to have much significance, The differences in projected total population due to differ- ences in patterns of mortality in such projections remain less than one per cent, In long-term projections with lower initial level of expectation of life at birth, however, the models "North", "East" and "South" tend to underestimate the total population as compared with model "West" —- this underestimation exceeding one per cent and increasing with time, With higher initial expectations of life at birth, these models tend to underestimate the total population as compared with model "West" even in short and medium-term projections, b, As far as the proportional distribution and the crude death rate of the projected population are concerned, the dif- ferences in patterns of mortality seem to be of some importance, In general, models "North", "East" and "South" tend to under- estimate the children and young adults and overestimate persons in older ages as compared with model "West" — the underestim- ation in most cases being less than 3 to 4 per cent, and over- 527 estimation, especially in ages above 70 years, as much as 30 per cente The death rate based on models "North", "East" and "South" tends to be overestimated to the extent of 2 to 5 per cent as compared with model "West" in medium-term projections. [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] REFERENCES Coale and Demeny, Methods of Estimating Fertility and and Mortality from Censuses of Population (unpublished manuscript), Princeton University (1966), United Nations, Age and Sex Patterns of Mortality (Model Life-Tables for Under-developed Countries), ST/SOA/Series A/22, Population Studies No, 22, New York (1955). Coale and Demeny, Regional Model Life Tables and Stable Populations, Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey (1966). Basavarajappa, K.G., Projections of Population by Sex and Age for Selected Countries in the ECAFE Region, 1960-80 (unpublished manuscript), Demographic Training and Research Centre, Bombay (1966). United Nations, Methods for Population Projections by Sex and Age, Manual III, ST/SOA/Series A, Population Studies No. 25, New York (1956). 528 ANNEXURE TABLE 2 Percentage deviations of projected total population, birth and death rates based on models "North", "East" and "South" from those based on model "West" at specified time of two test stable populations with an expectation of life at birth of 30 years ("West' Level 5), a gross reproduction rate of 3,00 and mean ages of fertility of 29 and 33 years respectively After Mort, North East South Years Level ñ=29 m=33 m=29 m=33 m=29 m=33 Percentage Deviations in Total Population 5 7 0,09 0.13 0.10 0,23 0.63 0.76 10 9 0.15 0,26 0.30 0.51 1.04 1.31 15 11 0.06 0.33 0,48 0.76 1,15 1,59 20 13 -0.23 0,25 0.56 0,96 0.93 1.61 25 15 -0,69 -0,10 0,41 1,00 0,38 1.32 30 17 1,11 =0,53 0,11 0.90 -0.31 0.82 35 19 “1,44 -0,93 -0,25 0.63 -1.07 0.15 40 21 -1,72 =1,22 -0.55 0.28 -1.77 -0.49 45 23 -2,01 =-I, 44 -0,.79 0.00 -2,47 1,08 50 24 -2,30 —-1.64 -0,99 -0,17 -3,19 =1.65 Percentage Deviations in Birth Rate 5 7 0.54 0.57 1,23 1, 20 0.43 0.61 10 9 0.49 0,86 1,94 1.95 0.59 0.86 15 11 -0,39 0.58 2,25 2.38 0,19 0.86 20 13 -1,26 -0.43 1.59 2.36 0.66 0.38 25 15 -1.,35 -1,38 0.51 1.67 -1.33 ~0,50 30 17 -0,82 -1.49 -0,35 0.31 -1,39 =1.26 35 19 -0,39 =0,92 -0,37 -0.57 -1,00 -1.31 40 21 -0,29 -0,22 -0,08 -0.,57 -0,69 =0,83 45 23 -0.,48 0,03 0,09 =0,06 |. =0,72 -0.36 50 24 -0.53 -0,17 -0,04 0.39 -0,95 -0.33 Percentage Deviations in Death Rate > 7 0.56 0.17 -0,50 =1.27 2,95 =3.75 10: 9 1,11 0,74 1.10 0.33 -1,21 -2,02 15 11 1,46 1,22 2,38 1,71 0,90 0.18 20 13 2,15 1,93 4,02 3.57 3.08 2,43 25 15 2,99 2,52 4,50 4,13 5,08 4,11 30 17 3,84 3,02 4,91 4,37 7.96 6.30 35 19 5.23 4,18 6,02 5.17 11,15 8,63 40 21 7.18 5.86 7.94 6.77 17,08 13,06 45 23 10,12 8,68 10.69 9.27 26.57 20.75 50 24 11,69 9,80 12.65 11,05 33.41 26.31 529 ANNEXURE TABLE 3 Percentage deviations of projected population by sex and age based on models "North", based on model "West" at specified time of a test stable population with an expectation of life at birth of 30 years ("West" Level 5), a gross reproduction rate of 3,00 and the mean age of fertility of 29 years "East" and "South" from those North East South Age After years After years After years 5 25 50 5 25 50 2 25 50 Males O- 4 | 3.26 -1,12 m2,97 =7,31 -2.15 =1,34| 1,20 -3,09 -6,02 5- 9 | -4.37 -1.56 =2,52 | =0,07 =1,88 =1,46 | =3,07 -2.60 -5.78 10-14 | -2.56 =1.56 -2.,24 | 0,40 «2,60 =1,81 | =0,07 -1.,41 =5,4k 15-19 | -0,64 -1,81 =2,59 | 0.99 =4,31 =2,15 0.60 =0,87 =5,32 20-24 | -0,25 =2,87 =3,28 | 1413 =6437 =2.28 | 0.51 -0,64 -4,75 25-29 | -0,07 -7.47 -3.88 1.61 1,85 =2,02| 0,82 =1,93 -3.55 30=34 | 0.40 =3,88 -3.71 2,15 3,28 =1,68 1.69 1.95 =1.76 35-39 | 0,91 -1.17 -3,48 2,50 4.71 =2,31 | 2,66 3,42 -0.36 hO—44 1.23 0.10 -3.71 2,71 5.84 -3.92| 3,42 4,76 0,28 4549 1,40 1,60 -4,43 2.93 7.13 -5.77 | 4.11 7.10 0.80 50-54 1,86 3.43 -8.25 3,33 8,08 2,49 4,85 10,00 0,04 55-59 2.35 579 -3,20 3.82 8.80 3.67 2.59 13,22 5622 60-64 2.65 B.44 2,06 4,18 9.42 4,64] 5,70 16.28 9,01 65-69 2,94 11.73 7.09 4.33 10,07 5.50 5.42 19.26 14,10 70-74 1,08 15,13 14,45 3.24 9,76 6.39 3.51 20.65 21.88 75-79 | «2.33 18.58 25,24 | 1,74 8,20 6.03| 0.0 18,03 29.52 80+ 2,86 17,79 39.77 1.43 5.52 3,92 | 1.43 12,27 36.14 All | -0,01 -0,98 -2.47 | 0,12 0.11 -1.420 | 1,09 0,91 -3.,06 Females o- 4 3.18 -1,14 -3,01 -1,97 -1,21 -1.36 | -1.39 -3.60 =6,05 10-14 | +2,18 -1,20 -2.38 0,48 -1,09 -1,81 | -0,20 =2,73 -5.91 15-19 | -0.18 -1,11 =2,61 1,10 =2.21 -1,96 0.59 -2.87 -5.71 20-24 | 0,62 =1,48 -3,03 | 1,28 -3.47 -1.62| 0.66 -3.54 =5.20 25-29 | 0,89 -5.17 -3.23 1,27 2,59 -0,.92| 0,89 -2.53 -4,30 30-34 | 0,78 -1.50 =2,70 | 1.38 3,52 =0,10] 1,38 2,20 -2,85 35-39 | 0.59 1,25 =1.97 1,63 4,43 -0,23| 1.94 3,70 -1.73 40-44 0,47 2,09 —1,61 1.83 4,88 -1,16 2,34 4,75 =1.54 45-49 0.56 2,26 -1.81 1,98 5.25 «2.241 2,71 6421 =1,67 50-54 1,13 2,48 -5.32 2,22 5.88 4,16] 3.25 8,08 0,16 55-59 1,60 3,10 =1,22 1.99 6.49 5.52 3.78 10.26 6.25 60-64 1,94 4,50 2,38 1.35 6457 6697] 3671 12.35 9.66 65-69 1,83 6.38 4.81 | -0,24 5,44 8,02| 2,32 13.97 13.79 70-74 | 0,00 8,51 7.81 | =3,19 2,37 8.64 | -1,.00 13.79 19,92 75-79 | -1.19 10.71 12.60 | -6,35 -3.63 17.73 | =6¢35 9.37 26.73 80+ -0,91 10,31 19,83 | 5.45 -11,07 4.10 | -6.36 0.38 32,13 All 0,19 =0,41 -2,14 0,08 0,07 «0,57 0,19 -0.14 -3,32 ANNEXURE TABLE 4 530 Percentage deviations of projected population by sex and broad age groups based on models "North", "East" from those based on model and "South" test stable population with an expectation of life at birth of 30 years ("West" Level 5), a gross reproduction rate of 3,00 and the mean age of fertility of 29 years "West" at specified time of a After Mort. Age North East South Years Level Group Males Females Males Females Males Females 0-14 -0,80 -0,52 -2,84 -1.77 —0.51 -1.,84 15-49 0,22 0.50 1.80 1,41 1.60 1,29 3 7 50+ 2,01 1,27 3.65 0.79 4.93 2.47 A11 -0,01 0,19 0,12 0,08 1.09 0.19 0-14 -0.67 -0. 33 -4 24 -2.58 -0,90 -2. 91 10 9 15-49 -0.33 0,32 2,86 2.33 2439 1.98 50+ 4,07 2.46 6.30 2.05 9.10 5.16 All -0,02 0,31 0,28 0,32 1,71 0.38 0-14 0.18 0.39 -4,65 =2.79 0,71 -2.75 15 11 15-49 =1,75 «0,64 3.28 2.84 1.96 1,47 50+ 5.83 3.40 7.98 3.34 12,07 7.56 All -0,15 0,27 0.39 0.57 1.86 0,44 o-1% -0,41 -0.30 -2.90 -1.47 -1,29 -2.,68 50+ 7.23 4,18 8.77 4,23 13,72 9.29 A11 0.46 0.0 0,40 0.73 1.60 0,27. 0-14 -1.38 -1.23 -2,19 -1,00 2,47 -3.33 25 15 15-49 -2,59 -0.95 0.35 1.23 1,15 0,09 50+ 7.78 4,68 8.85 4,86 14,32 10.55 All -0.98 -0.,41 0,11 0.70 0,91 -0.,14 0-14 -2,06 -1,95 2,11 -1,24 -3,72 -4,27 30 17 15-49 -2.,.89 «1,25 -0, 46 0.85 0.64 -0.44 50+ 7.88 5.12 8.65 5.47 14,26 11,47 All 1.41 -0,81 -0.,26 0.48 0.09 -0,72 0-14 -2,30 =2,29 -2.23 -1.68 4,69 =5,03 35 19 15-49 -3.26 -1,74 -1,05 0.50 -0,09 -1.13 50+ 7.61 5.40 8,02 5.96 13.54 11,94 All -1,71 =1,16 -0.66 0.16 -0,79 -1.35 [A -2,.30 -2,42 -2,07 -1.83 5.14 =5,50 Lo 21 15-49 -3.65 =2,30 -1,66 -0.03 -1,05 -2,07 50+ 705 5.39 7,02 6.27 12,90 12,30 All -1,95 —-1.49 -0,98 -0,13 -1,54 -2,00 0-14 -2. 35 2.48 1.77 -1, 72 -5.47 -5.81 45 23 15-49 -3.75 =2.65 -2.19 =0,65 -2.10 -3.11 50+ 5.35 4,30 5.78 6.43 12,05 12,28 All -2,20 -1,81 =1,21 =0,36 -2,29 -2.66 0-14 -2,63 =2,72 -1,50 =1,53 -5.79 -6.00 50 24 15-49 -3. 41 -2, 58 -2. 54 -1l, 24 -2. 95 3. 88 50+ 2.59 2.13 4,18 6.20 9.77 10.45 All 2,47 -2,14 -1,40 -0,57 -3,06 -3.32 ANNEXURE TABLE 5 Percentage deviations of projected total population, birth and death rates based on models "North", "East" and "South" from those based on model "West" at specified time of a test stable population with an expectation of life at birth of 42,5 years ("West" Level 10), a gross reproduction rate of 3.00 and the mean age of fertility of 29 years After Mort. Total Population Birth Rate Death Rate Years Level North East South North East South North East South 5 12 -0,01 -0,09 0,06 0,28 0.85 0.65 1.22 1.43 0.77 10 14 -0,09 -0.12 0.05 0,22 1.38 1,10 2,75 3.30 3.66 20 18 -0.55 -0,02 -0.26 -0,78 1.18 0.64 3.88 14.34 79,05 25 20 -0.89 -0.06 =0,63 -0,84 0.37 -0.13 5.43 5.04 12,03 30 22 1.21 -0,24 -1,18 -0.53 =0.26 -0.63 7.50 6.64 18,87 35 24 1,48 -0.47 -1.,82 -0,.25 -0,34 =0,70 11.26 10,07 30.63 TES 532 ANNEXURE TABLE 6 Percentage deviations of projected population by sex and broad age groups based on models "North", "East" and "South" from those based on model "West" at specified time of a test stable population with an expectation of life at birth of 42,5 years ("West" Level 10), a gross reproduction rate of 3,00 and the mean age of fertility of 29 years After Mort. Age North Fast South Years Level Group Males Females Males Females Males Females 0-14 -0,59 -0.49 =1,62 =1,12 -1,10 ~1,60 5 12 15-49 -0,02 0,22 0.94 0.79 0.87 0.83 50+ 2.25 1.36 1.57 0.32 2.89 1.93 A11 -0,06 0,03 -0,11 -0,07 0,20 -0,09 0-14 -0,70 -0.50 -2.51 -1.58 "1,99 -2.60 10 14 15-49 -0.55 -0,03 1,40 1,29 1,30 1,33 50+ 3.95 2,36 2,35 0,76 5,09 3.81 All -0,19 0,02 -0,23 =0,01 0,21 -O,11 0-14 -0,39 -0,24 -2,78 =1,72 -2,31 -2,96 15 16 15-49 -1,60 -0,73 1,54 1,59 1,05 1,17 504+ 5,19 3,05 2,92 1.53 6.88 5,67 A11 -0,42 -0,11 -0,27 0,12 0,09 -0.18 O-1 -0,83 =0,76 -1,70 -0,97 2,48 -2,91 20 18 15-49 -2,00 -0,92 0.45 0,94 0, Uh 0,40 50+ 5.98 3.50 3,26 2.30 8,09 7.25 Al11 -0,71 -0,38 —0, 27 0.23 -0,17 -0,36 0-14 -L.40 =1,46 -1,06 -0,67 -2,87 -3.29 2 20 15-49 -2,24 -1,09 -0,36 0,6 -0,14 -0,28 > 50+ 6.32 3.78 3627 2.93 8,80 8,38 All -1,04 —-0,74 -0,33 0,21 -0.55 =0,72 0-14 -1,84 -1,99 -0.94 -0,80 -3,60 =4,01 30 22 15-49 -2,44 -1,38 -0.86 0.12 -0,70 -0,98 = 50+ 6.30 3.93 2,99 3.45 9,29 9.36 All -1,33 -1.10 0.53 0.05 -1,10 —-1.27 0-14 -2,02 =2,15 =1,10 -1,09 =4,35 -4.67 35 24 15-49 -2.63 -1.73 -1,10 -0.15 1.33 -1.75 50+ 5.37 3,45 2,37 3,80 9.05 9.62 533 ABRIDGED LIFE TABLES FOR PAKISTAN AND ITS PROVINCES, 1962 - 1964 Farhat Yusuf* Population Growth Estimation Project Karachi = Pakistan INTRODUCTION 1. This paper presents some selected life table functions from a set of abridged life tables for Pakistan and its Provinces, based on the most recent demographic data available in the country. These data were collected by the Population Growth Estimation Project (PGE), which was designed “to obtain data on vital events in randomly selected sample areas with maximum possible accuracy and completeness”. 1 DATA 2. In PGE, two theoretically independent systems of data collection were used to get the birth and death statistics from a probability sample of the national population. These were the longitudinal registration (LR) and the cross - x The views expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect those of the PGE or its sponsoring organizations. The author wishes to acknowledge his gratitude to the Central Statistical Office, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Population Council Inc., and the U. S. National Centre for Health Statistics for their support to the PGE, which made this research possible, and also to Dr. Lee L. Bean and Mr. William Seltzer for their helpful comments. 1. Population Growth Estimation, Procedure, Special Studies Series PGE 1, Central Statistical Office, 1, (1962). 534 sectional survey (CS). [27 Birth and death statistics collected through the Lk and CS systems were matched so as to get the number of vital events reported by both systems and the number of events reported by LR only and CS only. These three categories were used to est imate the number of events missed by both the LR and CS systems, by using a method suggested by Chandrasekaran and Deming./ 3_7 No such adjustments were made to the base population data which were provided by CS alone. 3. The following data were available for the first 3 years (i.e. January 1962 to December 1964) of the PGE study: (a) estimates of deaths by sex, age and province, (b) estimates of live births by sex and province, and (c) estimates of mid year populations Ly sex, age and province. It may be noted that the estimates of vital eveats under items (a) and (b) were the so called Chandrasekaran - Ueming estimates, in which due allowance was given to vital events missed by both the LR and CS systems, 4. PGE data, like all other survey data, are subject to many sampling and non-sampling errors. / 4 To minimize the effect of these errors, three year aggregates of vital events and mid year populations have been used in the life table computations. METHOD OF LIFE TABLE CONSTRUCTION 5. Age specific death rates (n"x) for all ages above O were computed by using the following formula: 2. For details of PGE methodology see: Nazir Ahmed and Ke J. Krotki, Simultanecus Estimation of Population Growth = The Pakistan Experiment, Pakistan Devel opment keview, 3 37-05, (1903). 3. C. Chandrasekaran and W. E. Deming, On a Method of Estimating Birth and Death Rates and Extent of Registration, Journal of the American statistical Association, 44, 110-115, (1949). 4. William Seltzer and Sultan S, Hashmi, A Note on the Limitations of Population Growth Estimation Data Used for Life Table Construction, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Research Report No.46, (mimeographed), 25-32, (1966), also see: l. Parker Mauldin, Estimating Rates of Population Growth, Proceedings of the International Conference on Family Planning Programs, 644-647, (1965). where nx is the sum of the estimated number of deaths of persons in the age group x to x + n, dying during the 3 years of the study and nPx is the sum of the estimated mid year populations during the reference period in the age group x to x + ne 2 6. The infant mortality rate was computed by dividing the sum of infant deaths during the 3 years by the sum of live births during that period, 7. The age specific death rates, when plotted for each sex and province category, revealed quite smooth n"x curves upto age 45. Beyond that age, there were distinct peaks at age groups ending in O and troughs at age groups ending in 4. These were obviously due to erratic age distributions at older ages. To smooth the n"x curves for ages beyond 45, a method suggested by the United Nations was used. [6 This involved the computation of n x values for 10 year age groups. These 10 year n"x values were then divided into two 5 year n x values by using the formula: = I na à LE, + 1 (CAE 07s where f__ is the value of n"x for the first half of the given 10 year age group, f_ is the n"x value for the entire 10 year age group and f Nand f_ ¡ are the n x values for the preceeding and Succeedind o year age groups. This method did yield quite smooth n"x curves for ages beyond 45 years for all sex and province categories. / 7 5. Persons whose ages were not known were distributed on a pro-rata basis. 6. United Nations, Method of Population Projections b Sex_and Age, Manual TIT, United Nations, 15, 1956), New York. 7. However, even after smoothing the n"x curve for females in West Pakistan showed some minor irregularities which were left untouched so as not to disturb the distribution too much. 536 8a Reed and Merrel tables were consuited to transform the n"x values to nIx values for all ages except age 0, L&T The infant mortality rate as described in para 6 was taken as an estimate of q. £ 97 9. The remaining columns of the life tables were computed by following the method suggested by the United Nations./ 107 MORTALITY CONDITIONS IN PAKISTAN 10, Death rates in many countries of the ECAFE Region have registered_a substantial decline since the Second World War. / 11 Similar declines in mortality levels have also been observed by Khan and Robinson in their studies of mortality conditions in Pakistan, / 12 Khan has estimated that the crude death rate ranged vetween 29 - 32 deaths per 1000 population in 1951, L 13_7 These rates when compared with PGE crude death rates which ranged between 18 - 22 for the period 1962 - 1964, confirm the declining trend in mortality levels of Pakistan. 11. To study the current mortality conditions in Pakistan, a set of six abridged life tables was prepared by using 5. Lowell J. Reed and Margaret Merrell, A Short Cut liethod for Constructing an Abridged Life Table, The American Journal of Hygiene, 3U, 33-62, (1939). 9. George W. Barclay, Technigues of Population Analysis, John Wiley and Sons, 286-285, (1963). 10, United Hations, op.cit., 23-24, paras 148 - 152, 156, 157, (1956). 11. United Nations Gconomic Commission for Asia and The Far East, Report of the Asian Population Conference and_Selected Papers, United Nations, 77, (1904). 12. mw. C. Robinson, Recent Mortality Trends in Pakistan, to appear in the torthcoming book Studies in the Demography of Pakistan, Pakistan Institute of Devel opment Economics, (1907), also see: M.K.H. Khan, Public Health Programmes and Mortality Decline in Pakistan, Proceedings of the Pakistan Statistical Association, 13, 5-8, (1965). 13. Khan, ibid, 7, Tabie IV, 537 the PGE mortality data for the period January 1962 to December 1964. Some selected functions of this set are presented in Tables 1 and 2, This is the third set of life tables derived from the PGE data. Aslam, Hashmi and Seltzer prepared the first set using one year’s data (1962), while Bean and Khan computed the second set by utilizing the two years’ PGE data (1962-1963). / 14_7 12. The values of selected life table functions presented in this paper have revealed some interesting facts about mortality levels and dif ferentials in Pakistan, during the period 1962 - 1964. As regards the mortality levels, it is clear from Table 1 that infant mortality rates were 153 and 133 for males and females respectively. Further, at almost all ages beyond infancy, Pakistani females were exposed to greater risks of dying than Pakistani males. This resulted in higher life expectancies for males up to age 65, beyond which the trend was reversed (Table 2). This pattern of higher female mortality is usually observed in high mortality areas and is at variance with the usual expectation. [15 A comparison of the e. values for Pakistan (49.57 for males and 46.91 for females®) with comparable figur es for other ECAFE countries, also shows that Pakistan is still one of the high mortality areas in the ECAFE Region. / 16 13. Two types of mortality differentials are studied in this paper: (1) interprovince differentials and (2) sex differentials. 14. M. Aslam, Sultan S. Hashmi and William Seltzer, Abri dged Life Tables for Pakistan and Provinces, 1962, Pakistan Devel opment Review, /, (forthcoming), also see: Lee Le Bean and Masihur Rehman Khan, Mortality Patterns in Pakistan, paper presented to the Seventh All Pakistan Statistical Conference, (1967), Dacca. In addition, M.K.H. Khan had prepared a set of abridged life tables for the former province of Punjab, for the period 1950-52. M.K.H. Khan, Abridged Life Tables for Males and females in the Former Province of the Punjab, 1950-52, Pakistan Journal of Medical Research, 1, (1958). 15. The expected pattern of sex differentials in mortal ity is that at almost all ages (beyond infancy) male death rates would exceed those of females. Barclay op.cit.,, 136. 16. United Nations Economic Commission for Asia and the Far East, op.cit., 79, Table 3.3. 538 14, Regarding the interprovince mortality differentials, it is evident from Tables 1 and 2 that at almost el! ages, East Pakistanis appear to be exposed to greater risks of dying than their west Pakistani counterparts. Because of this phenomenon, life expectancies for all age - sex categories in lest Pakistan were higher than those for East Pakistan. However, it was noted that the interprovince mortality differences were more pronounced in case of females, particularly those of child bearing age, than for males. 15. According to the United Nations: Sex differentials in mortality are well known to follow a fairly typical pattern. If only because more boys then girls are born in the world every year and because all must eventually die, the annual number of male deaths would normal iy always exceed the number of female deaths. The actual excess of male mortality is all the greater because age-specific death rates are, as a rule, higher among males than among females and this difference produces a greater life expectancy of the female sex. With very few exceptions, this is the common finding throughout the world. / 17_ This pattern of high male mortality was found true at age O in both provinces of the country. Beyond infancy, the trend of sex differentials in mortality varied between East and West Pakistan and was al so somewhat different from the expected pattern described by the U.N, It was noted from Tables 1 and 2 that in East Pakistan, males appear to be exposed to lower risks of dying and hence had higher life expectancies than females and al so that the sex differential was comparatively large during the reproductive ages. On the other hand, males in West Pakistan experienced lower mortality at ages up to 50 and beyond this age the male i mortality rates exceeded the female mortality rates (Table 1). 16. Many factors could be contributing to the observed interprovince and sex differentials in mortality. As regards the interprovince differentials, mortality in East Pakistan appears to be higher compared to West Pakistan. 17. United Nations, op.cit., 16, (1955). 539 This may be a real difference or may be due to sampling and non-sampling errors affecting the PGE data. For example, it is possible that the quality of field work in East Pakistan was better than in West Pakistan and therefore deaths could have been under reported in West Pakistan. However, no quantitative measures of the relative efficiency of field work in both Provinces have been prepared so far. Regarding the sex differentials, it seems that females were exposed to somewhat greater risks of dying than males, at almost all ages except age O. This pattern is frequent}Jy observed in high mortality countries. In part this is undoubtedly due to mortality arising from child birth and its complications. The additional burden that child birth imposes on the women in countries with low health conditions is substantial. The observed sex differentials my also be explained by the fact that given the limited medical and public health facilities and the position of women in Pakistani society, it is quite likely that females are not cared for as much as males. This is particularly important in case of women of child bearing age. CONCLUSIONS 17. Four points emerge from the present analysis: (1) mortality levels in Pakistan have registered a substantial decline since 1951, however, Pakistan is still one of the high mortality countries of the ECAFE Region, (2) East Pakistanis (at almost all ages) appear to be exposed to greater risks of mortality than their West Pakistani counterpart, (3) female mortality was in general higher than male mortality, exceptions being the infants (in both Provinces) and age groups beyond 50 (in West Pakistan only), where males had higher mortality than females, and (4) the high incidence of maternal mortality was found to be one of important factors causing the sex differentials in mortality. Table 1 - Age specific death rates (1000.n"x) for Pakistan and its l’rovinces by sex, 1962-1964 x Pakistan East Pakistan West Pakistan Ma les Females Males Females Maies Females 00 153.03 132.92 161.09 127.50 142.64 140.43 01 24.23 30.96 22.63 27.44 26.36 35.83 05 5.93 5.92 6.80 6.30 4.63 5.32 10 2.24 2.95 2.07 2.59 2.49 3.45 15 2.65 6.56 1.85 6.79 3.51 6.28 20 3.54 5.70 3.22 6.59 3.89 4.53 25 3.70 7.04 3.08 8.82 4.46 4.73 30 5.02 7.84 5.44 8.28 4.44 7.26 35 6.04 9.15 6.23 9.84 5.78 8.25 40 7.52 8.39 8.06 9.51 6.82 6.79 45 10.24 6.857 11.99 9.66 8.00 7.64 50 14,40 13.79 17.03 15.50 11.17 11.38 55 15.25 22.73 21.25 25.84 14.65 17.97 60 28.57 34.2 33.39 40.26 23.26 27.03 65 43.05 47.76 49.59 54.54 35.44 44.74 70 64.14 67.00 76.2 85.67 52.64 46.73 75 85.65 59,50 111.32 135.97 65.03 48.76 80 129.85 121.12 154.52 176.74 110.54 76.13 85 225.43 174.77 227.61 232.59 223.78 149.09 90 235.46 190,62 244.15 234.07 228.35 177.34 95 295.83 37.74 398.15 324.53 212.12 350.94 Source: PGE data, 1962-1964. ors Table 2 - Expectation of life at various ages (e) for Pakistan and its Provinces by sex,1962*1964 X Pakistan East Pakistan West Pakistan Males Females Males Females Males Females 00 49.57 46.91 48.41 46.03 51.49 48.58 01 57.48 53.06 56.66 51.72 59.02 55.47 05 58.67 55.21 57.37 52.95 60.80 58.93 10 55.39 51.82 54.53 49.49 57.28 55.36 15 50,92 47.57 50.06 45.20 52.83 51.16 20 46.65 44.18 45.53 41.72 48.84 47.65 25 42.54 40.45 41.18 38.12 44.78 43.79 30 38.35 36.80 36.77 34.76 40.63 39.84 35 34.26 33.20 32.64 31.08 36.41 36.17 40 30.23 29,62 28.56 27.55 32.44 32.55 45 26.36 25.73 24,62 23.84 28.51 28.62 50 22.59 21.80 20.99 19.94 24.57 24.68 55 19.05 18.20 17.64 16.30 20.82 20.94 60 15.61 15.12 14.32 13.22 17.25 17.69 65 12.67 12.48 11.46 10.62 14.06 14.89 70 10.14 10.22 9.03 8.22 11.29 13.05 75 8.06 8.34 7.11 6.36 8.98 10.88 80 6.11 6.73 5.63 5.26 6.51 8.23 85 4.53 5.36 4.46 4.41 4.58 5.92 90 4.08 4.56 3.94 3.97 4.19 4.87 95 2.89 3.05 2.68 2.49 3.08 3.43 Source: PGE data, 1962-1964. es 542 RECENT RETARDATION OF MORTALITY DECLINE IN JAPAN Takemune Soda, M.D. Director, Institute of Public Health, Tokyo. 1. Introduction After World War II, mortality of Europe and the American countries had been making a steady improvement. However, around 1950, retardation of mortality decline started to show up, and in Norway and other countries, a slight increase in crude death rate was observed. Moriyama published two papers concerning this subject (1, 2). He observed a similar retardation of mortality decline for infants and most other specific age groups, for most states and for both whites and non- whites in the United States, and investigated the various possible sources of this retardation phenomenon. It is suspected that a specific underlying cause may exist to make a retardation of mortality decline. Other reports on this topic were contributed. (3, 4) This paper aims to elucidate the existance of same situation in Japan. (5 2. Method of Analysis a. Identification from graphs Annual changes in mortality during the period 1947-63 are drawn in the figures according to various combinations of such variables as age, sex, region and cause of death. Six experts in vital statistics were divided into three teams of two persons each. The teams were asked to examine such figures and determine on each graph where the retardation occurred. The graphs were classified according to whether the retardation phenomenon was: (a) clearly identifiable; (b) indentifiable; or (c) unidentifiable, end also they desig- nated the time of the breaking point when the retardation phenomenon was observed to occur. b. Retardation index and its changes ie If mortality, qt, was reduced by a constant proportion each year during a certain period, that is, the amount of annual decrease approaches zero in a geometric series, the following equation for the curve can be considered: Lia . 9g 4 9% -a 543 Here, k is a constant, and lt + a / A = - a This index is designated as the retardation index. When a retardation in trend is observed, it is obvious that the value of R.I. should be greater than 1, and when the decline in mortality continues at a new and constant rate again, the value of R.I. would return to 1_again. ii. If mortality, qi, has a lower limit, q, and qe - a diminishes exponentially as t proceeds,_ = R.I. = 1 a+ - 4 = k! La = 1 where k' is a constant. Then the retardation index is q qq RI = —bta / ——>1 A Ut -a Thus, the R.I. value is always greater than 1 in this case. Generally, a lower limit exists for most causes of death, with some exceptions such as some of infectious diseases. Mortality for each age group also has a lower limiting value. Thus, within the range of observable mortality, the R.I. value is always expected to be greater than 1, and in most cases the calculated values are actually greater than 1. Even when the mortality has a lower limit, if the abrupt change in decreasing trend is observed at tp, the R.I. value makes a peak point at ty, as in case of a). Thus, the year of a significant change in mortality trend also can be easily detected by observing an exceptional fluctuation in the R.I. values over time, though the index always remains above 1. ce. Determination of trend lines and degree of retardation By taking into account experts' judgments of retardation based on the examination of a graph of mortality trend, and change of the retardation index, the time of the breaking point can be determined from the data. A trend with a breaking point at t, is represented by two equations, fitted by the method of least squares, yp =e (81 +b1%), xtr The ratio of the difference between slopes before and after the breaking point, to the original slope, is designated as the retardation ratio (R.R.), expressed as a percent. R.R.(%) = + 100 = 100 - bx 100 de Problems concerning classification of causes of death There are several tabulation lists presented in the WHO Manual of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases, Injuries and Causes of Death (6). In Japan, mortality analysis, crossed with sex, age, locality, etc., is generally based on List B. In this research, besides this B List, 544 another classification by broader categories adopted by the Division of Health and Welfare Statistics, Health and Welfare liinistry of Japan, such as A, By Cy D, and E groups, was also employed. These groups contain categories of deaths respectively classified as: infectious diseases (group A); acult diseases (group B); diseases of pregnancy and infancy (group C); external causes of death (group D); and causes not elsewhere classified, (group.E). Specific B-List categories included in each group are shown below. Group A: B1-B17, B23, B30, B31, B32, B36,,B238, B43b Group B: B18, B19, B22, B25, B27, B28, B29, B45a. Group Cs B40, B4l, B42, B43c. B44. Group D: BE47-BE50. . Group E: All B List classifications other than A, B, C, and D groups. 3, Main Results a. Retardation by Age Group Changes in the retardation index (R.I.), of death rates by sex for eacn age group as described in the discussion of methodology, are shown in Table 1. R.I. value based on the interval 1947/52/57, is very high, and greater than the values at any other time. This proves a significant retardation of mortality decline after 1952, compared to the trend between 1947 and 1952. This phenomenon occurred, more or less, regularly in each of efe oups. This may be considered as a change reflecting a transition, or the recovery process from unusual to more usual living conditions following World War II. R.I. value based on 1950/55/60 is also higher than those based on earlier and later intervals for all age groups (the peak occurs one year earlier .for infant mortality), and this proves a possible break in trend about 1955. b. Retardation by Causes of Death i. Broad categories of causes of death The changes of crude death rate between 1947 and 1963 for causes of death classified in each of the broad groups A to E. In order to detect the occurrence of retardation, R.I. values were caluculated, using five year intervals, for each of the years 1952-58. The change of R.I. is shown in Table 2. Group A (infectious diseases) shows peculiar change, with high R.I. values for both 1952 and 1955, ise. 1.7 and 1.9. Almost similar trends are observed for groups B (adult diseases) and E (other causes.) shows high R.I. values for the years 1952, 1955 and 1958. Group B has R.I. values ranging between 0.8 and 1.2, and the trend is considered to fluctuate around 1.0. It should be noted, however, that these groups B and E have a pattern similar to that of group A. Group C (disease of pregnancy and infancy) has a moratlity rate which tends to decrease, and its R.I. values for 1957 and 1958 are 0.8. Group D (enternal causes of death) has a highest R.I. value 1.3 for 1952 and shows different changes than the other groups. The R.I. value decreases almost linearly. The trend of mortality rates shows that Group D mortality decreased until 1952 and turned to increase at 1953, then the trend stayed at a steady rate, and actual mortality decline being again observed quite recently. As can be seen in table 2 retardation of mortality decline for Group A (infectious diseases) seems to occur around 1955. Group E (other diseases of 545 death) shows retardation in the same year, and the presence of another breaking point is also estimated around 1958. Mortality trends for Group A, Group E and also Group B (adult diseases), all showing a similar change of R.I., overlap one another to produce a general mortality trend for all causes, with a breaking point of trend at 1955. While R.I. values were examined to detect breaking points, experts! Judgments of the breaking points as observed on charts of the trends were also obtained. The breaking points thus obtained were observed in 1955 for Group A, 1955 for Group C, and 1953 and 1957 for Group E. No definite breaking point at any given year was observed for Groups B and D. Table 3 shows values of R.R., and presents slopes for the trend lines on either side of the breaking point, as obtained by the method of least squares. The claculations were done for each sex separately. The value of the slope before the breaking point is highest for Group A, with bj = 0.07. Next come Groups C and E with 0.04. Slope bp, after the breaking point, is largest for Group C with a value of 0.03-0.04 for each sex, followed by Group À with a value of about 0.025, then Group E, about 0.015. Group A had the largest value of R.R. of about 65% with a breaking point at 1955 and Group E had R.R. of 60-63% (1953) or 51-54% (1957). For Group C, the value R.R. about the 1955 breaking point was 20-23% and the retardation was not so significant. There seems to be no relation between R.R. values and the levels of bj and b> . No difference between the sexes was observed in R.R.s of groups A and E. ii. Retardation by detailed classification of causes of death As can be seen from the results of the analysis using broad categories, and the B List classifications, the retardation phenomenon is significant for infectious diseases, particularly the respiratory infectious diseases. However, some categories in B List are subdivided into more detailed classi- fications, which differ more or less in nature, clinical appearance, compli- cation, or origin of the disease. And the use of some detailed list cate- gories is inevitably necessary for a further, more accurate analysis of the retardation phenomena of mortality. (6) On the other hand, however, when the detailed classification is used, the number of deaths in each disease category becomes smaller and the fluctuation with time is greater, and sometimes, it is difficult to analyze and detect changes in trend effectively. Therefore, causes with the following characteristics were selected from the detailed classification: (a) the number of deaths is sufficiently large to be devided into certain age groups; (b) deaths are not concentrated near extreme ages (causes specific to infant are included in observation); (c) the causes are related to infectious diseases. There were 33 causes of death or groups of causes selected. When the retardation index is calculated for both of the periods, 1950/ 55/60 and 1952/57/62, the value is higher for 1950/55/60 and the breaking point is estimated to be located at 1955 or before. After 1955 trend becomes more horizontal. Disease categories and their category bronchities, unquali- fied (501); other disease due to bacterial infection (050-064); acute upper respiratory infections (470-475); brochopneumonia (491); pneumonia, other 546 and unspecified 1990 gastroenteritis and colitis, except ulcerative (571); lobar pneumonia (490), as shown in Table 4. The results of experts' judgements for these detailed causes of death agree with those based on the retardation index for respective cause. ¡hen the retardation phenomenon is detected on the graph by experts, and the degree of retardation is remarkable, the index value for the cause is high. On the other hand, when the retardation for the category in the detailed classification is not detected at all, the index value is low. Thus, such a cause of death is assumed to follow the same unbroken declining trend or a more remarkablly diminishing trend. However, the retardation for some causes of death can not always be detected on the graph in spite of high index values (e.g. 470-475, 690-698), and sometimes on the contrary, the retardation for a cause of death can be fairly observed on the chart in spite of a low index value (e.5. 591, 593). The reason for these paradoxical results is that large fluctuation of death rate existed and the choice of 1950/55/60 for use in the calculations happened to produce high index values for the former cases. In the case of nephritis group (591, 593) the breaking point is observed a few years before 1955 and the peak of the index has already passed in the year 1955. Next, for each cause in the detailed classification which has a clear breaking point, trend lines before and after the breading point where fitted, and the R.R. value (%) was calculated, first for both sexes, and then for males and females separately (Table 5). For both sexes combined, the bron- chitis group, 500, 501 and 502 has the highest R.R. values, each exceeding 90%, and they are followed by causes of the pneumonia group, 490, 491 and 493 with values of 80-90%. The pattern is about the same for males and females considered separately, but the breaking point for chronic bronchitis 502) was not clear for each sex. Retardation for gastritis and doudenitis (22) was clearly observed for males and females separately, and R.R. values were 60-80%. References l. Moriyama, I.M.: Recent changes in infant mortality trend. Pub. Health Rep. 75:319-405, 1960 2. Moriyama, I.M.: Preliminary observations on recent mortality trend. Pub. Health Rep. 76:1056-1058, 1961. 3. National Center for Healtn Statistics: ¿ecent mortality trends in Chile. Vital and Health Statistics. PIS Pub ho. l00-Series 3-i:0. 2. Public Health Service. Washington. U.S. Government Printing Office, lov. 1964. 4. National Center for Ilealth Statistics: Chances in mortality trends: England and Vales 1931-1961. Vital and Health Statistics. DHS Pub, llo. 1000 - Series 3-No. 3. Public Health Service. Washington. U.S. Govern- ment Printing Office, Nov. 1965. 5. This study was done in part by the aid of Ilealth and Welfare Scicnce Fund, Japan, in 1962 and 1964. The report of 1962 research was published in the following paper. T. Soda, T. Hirayama, lM. Kimura, R. Tsunoda, K. Ueda and T. Suganuma: Retardation of mortality decrcage in Japan, KOSEI-NO-SHIHYO (Welfare Index) Special Issue for Scientific Papers-1963: 1963 (in Japanese). 6. World Health Organization, Manual of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases, Injuries and Causes of Death, Geneva, World Health Organization, 1957. 547 Table 1. Changes in Retardation Indices for Age Group, 1947/52/57 =- 1953/58/63 1947/ | 19487 T 19497 | 19507 T 19517 | 19527 | 1953/ Ago 52/57 | 53/58 | 54/59 | 55/60 | 56/61 | 57/62 | 58/63 All ages 1.52 1.12 1.29 1.36 1.14 0.97 1.12 0 1.79 1.27 1.47 1.42 1.12 0.90 0.93 5 1.42 0.98 1.03 1.11 1.06 0.88 1.01 10 1.55 1.45 1.50 1.25 1.25 1.01 0.98 15 2.10 1.81 1.58 1.63 1.40 0.93 0.94 20 2.12 1.99 1.61 1.52 1.15 0.88 0.87 25 1.09 1.72 1.52 1.56 1.29 1.02 0.99 30 1.54 1.49 1.44 1.43 1.27 1.01 1.07 35 1.50 1.40 1.31 1.38 1.17 0.98 1.09 40 1.37 1.28 1.27 1.29 1.14 0.99 1.07 45 1.30 1.14 1.15 1.19 1.09 0.94 1.02 50 1.31 1.09 1.06 1.14 0.94 0.91 0.99 55 1.25 1.04 1.09 1.19 1.03 0.91 1.02 60 1.37 0.99 1.08 1.13 0.99 0.87 1.05 65 1.20 0.92 1.07 1.16 1.00 0.91 1.07 70 1.30 0.84 1.01 1.12 0.93 0.82 1.07 75 1.39 0.82 1.05 1.18 0.94 0.85 1.10 80 1.40 0.80 1.11 1.28 1.00 0.87 1.21 Note. Retardation Index 1947/52/57 = M,(1957)/ M, (1952) — M, (1952), (1947) 548 Table 2. Changes in Retardation Indices for Broad Categories of Causes of Death, 1947/52/57 - 1953/58/63 or hee 47/52/57 | 48/53/58 | 49/54/59 50/55/60 | 51/56/61 | 52/57/62 | 53/58/63 ni 1.62 1.12 1.29 1.36 1.14 | 0.97 1.12 A 1.67 1.14 1.44 1.89 1.46 0.99 1.09 B 1.20 0.92 1.04 1.09 0.94 0.89 1.08 C 1.13 1.22 1.21 1.22 1.11 0.88 0.82 D 1.16 1.00 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.81 0.83 E 1.47 1,06 1.25 1.25 1,04 1.08 1.23 Note: Retardation Index 1947/52/57; see text and Table 1. Table 3 Identification of Breaking Points, Inclination of Trendlines, and Retardation Ratio (RR?) by Broad Categories of Causes of Death. Broad Male Female Cat - : — gories era b,x10° b,x10” RR(%) cs v, x10 bx10° "RR(5) All Causes 1955 1665 490 70.6 % | 1955 1936 767 53.1 % A 1955 7162 | 2576 64.0 % | 1955 6842 | 2332 66.3 % B x x x x x x x x c 1955 4582 | 3074 32.9% | 1955 4406 | 3552: | 19.4 % D x x x x x x x E 1953 | 4462 | 1784 60.0 % | 1953 4214 | 1558 | 63.0% 1957 3052 | 1490 51.2% | 1957 3648 | 1674 54.1 % Note: RR(%) = by = bp / bi x 100 (%) 549 Table 4. Retardation Indices for Detailed Classification of Causes of Death. 55/60 and 1952/54/62 Code 1950/55/60 1952/57/62 002 1.87 1.04 003 1.58 1.17 010 1.24 1.36 025 1.23 1.19 050 - 064 2.40 1.06 053 1.17 1.19 061 1.24 1.19 080 - 096 1.07 0.74 082 1.13 1.76 241 1.46 0.74 340 - 345 1.46 1.12 470 = 475 2.12 0.42 490 1.71 0.87 491 2.12 0.72 493 1.87 0.63 280 3.37 1.08 501 3.37 1.13 502 1.46 1.31 521 1.47 1.10 526 1.18 0.93 543 1.55 1.24 571 1.82 1.55 572 1.45 1.18 576 1.51 1.22 590 0.98 0.53 595 1.10 0.95 592 1.24 0.92 593 1.12 0.78 600 1.93 2.39 690 - 698 1.56 0.73 763 0.91 0.69 764 1.01 0.80 Note: Code Number of International Classification of Causes of Death, bee reference (6) 1950/ Table 5 Identification of Breaking Points, Inclination of Trend Line and Retardation Ratio (RE?), by Detailed Classification Causes of Death Cause of Both Sex Male Female death Breaking -5 -5 Breaking -5| 5 Breaking -5 -5 point | b1x10|b,x10 | RR(%)| .point | b1x10 |box10 | RR(%)| point |byx10 |bax10 | RR(55) 002 1955 | 9364 |3500 | 62.6 1953 | 12579| 3056 | 75.7 1953 |13921| 4630 | 66.7 003 1955 | 7287 [3982 | 45.4 * * * * 1955 8581| 3984 | 53.6 050-064 1955 | 10914 | 5088 53.4 1955 | 9861| 5014 | 49.2 1955 |11976| 5226 | 56.4 340-345 * * * * 1955 | 6508| 2055 | 68.4 * * * * 490 1955 | 3428 | 398 88.4 1955 | 3440| 260 | 92.4 * * * * 491 1955 | 5868 | 1374 76.6 1955 | 5783| 1440 | 75.1 * * * * 493 1955 | 4285 | 314 92.7 1955 | 4200| 234 | 94.4 1955 4386| 402| 90.8 500 1955 | 8360 | 460 | 94.5 1955 | 8424| 708 | 91.6 1955 8295| 318| 96.2 501 1955 | 19007 | 1452 92.4 1955 | 10275| 1496 | 85.4 1955 9737| 1346 | 86.2 502 1959 | 5713 | -692 | 112.1 * * * * * * * * 521 * x * * | 1955 | 5646| 1934 | 65.7 * | *| + 543 * * * * 1955 | 4611} 1786 | 61.3 1955 3869! 616| 84.1 571 1957 | 8300 | 3506 57.8 1955 | 9775| 4122 | 57.8 1957 7966 | 3396 | 57.4 572 1955 | 6097 |3772 | 38.1 1955 | 6686 | 4128 | 38.3 1955 5745| 3488 | 39.3 276 1955 | 7419 | 3528 | 52.4 1955 | 6879| 3206 | 53.4 1955 :| 7972| 3820| 52.1 Note: RR(%) = bj - bo / by; x 100 (%) 055 551 The Effect of Mortality on the Sex Ratio in Pakistan by Abdul Razzaque Rukanuddin! Staff Demographer Pakistan Institute of Development Economics Karachi 1. The 1961 Census of Pakistan has reported a sex ratio? of 1111 for the country as a whole, 1076 for,East Pakistan and 1158 for West Pakistan. The Population Growth Estimation” (PGE) project has reported also, more or less, the same sex ratios. The sex ratios of the January 1, 1963 PGE populations are 1104, 1072 and 1147 for Pakistan as a whole, East and West Pakistan respectively, The sex ratio prevailing in the country is unusually high compared with those of the developed countries or even with those of other developing countries of the world. 1. The author is grateful to Dr. lee L. Bean and Mr. MsR. Khan for suggestions and comments on earlier drafts. The author is solely respon- sible for all the short comings in the paper. 2, In this paper the term sex ratio means the number of males per thousand females. This is in confirmity with International practices but it deviates from the Pakistan Census definition which has used the number of females per thousand males. 3. For methodological and technical details of PGE, seeespecially articles by Ahmed, Nazir and Karol J. Krotki, Simultaneous Estimates of Population Growth-The Pakistan Experiment, Pakistan Development Review, III, 37-65 (1963), and Krotki, Karol, J. and Nazir Ahmed, Vital Rates in East and West Pakistan-Tentative Results from the PGE Experiment, The Pakistan Development Review, IV, 734-759 (1964) 3 . 552 2. The high sex ratio in Pakistan may be attributed to (a) higher female than male mortality and (b) to socio-economic and cultural fac- tors resulting under-enumeration of females in the country. The object of this paper is to analyse the extent to which each of these factors has been responsible for creating such an abnormally high sex ratio in the country. 3. In order to evaluate the effect of these factors on the population of Pakistan, a model has been constructed assuming two different levels of mortality. One level relates to the mortality experience of developed countries. The other level relates to the mortality experience of Pakis- tan as observed by PGE'. From these mortality levels, stable populations have been constructed. In these models it is assumed that the sex ratio at birth is 1057. Ultimately the expected age-specific and overall sex ratios are obtained. These expected ratios are compared with the enume- rated age-specific and overall sex ratios to determine the extent of under or over-enumeration. Before discussing the probable effect of mor. tality on the sex ratio in the country, a note is necessary on the age- sex mortality differentials prevailing in the country. Age-Sex Mortality Differentials in Pakistan 4. In Table 1 and Figure 1 the ratios of the male/female probability of dying ( q,) for Pakistan and Provinces are compared with those of Princeton Net Model level 13, which approximates the same overall mor- tality pattern as observed in Pakistan’. For almost all ages the figures of Pakistan and provinces indicate higher female than male mor- tality in Pakistan and its provinces. Except in age groups 50-54 and 80-84 the mortality of females at all other ages is higher than that of males. The higher female mortality here and especially in age group 50=54 may be due to irregular reporting of deaths. With regard to interwing sex differentials in mortality, the pattern in certain age groups is different but the overall sex differentials in mortality between the pro. vinces are about the same. The Princeton West Model level 13 unlike 4, Bean, Lee L. and M.R. Khan, Mortality Patterns in Pakistan, paper read at the 7th All Pakistan Statistical Conference, Dacca 28th February = 2nd March (1967) 5. Khan, Masihur Rahman, Lee L. Bean, A. Razzaque Rukanuddin A New look at Fertility in Pakistan and Its Implication for the Famil Planning Programme Pakistan Family Planning Journal, 1, 27-34 (1967) 6. Although Princeton West Model level 13 differs somewhat from the age-sex mortality pattern observed in Pakistan, the overall pattern is about the same as observed in Pakistan. 553 Pakistan shows higher male than female mortality. According to this model males experience higher risks of death than females in infancy and after ages 19 up to the terminal ages of life. 5. The expectation of life at birth ( e ) based on PGE mortality data is 50,07 and 47.56 years for males and females respectively, whereas West Model level 13 shows an expectation of life at birth ( e ) for - males and females of 47.11 and 50,00 years respectively. Thu$ the two models show a reverse male-female difference in life expectancies. 6. It has been observed through various research studies that the re- latively high mortality of females in the Indo-Pakistan sub-continent is positively relateg with the socio-cultural conditions prevailing in this part of the world’, The lack of medical facilities in general and parti- cularly during prenatal and postnatal periods seem to be one of the major causes of high female mortality in Pakistan. However, higher female mor- tality in Pakistan and India is not surprising as such conditions very often existed in the pregently developed countries in their pre-industrial and early modern periods e The Effect of Age Sex-Specific Mortality Differentials 7. The next step in the research reported here was to compare the two mortality models to assess the effect of mortality differences on the age- specific sex ratios and the overall sex ratio in the country, The first mortality model (Princeton West Model level 13) refers to countries where the female expectation of life at birth ( 8 ) is higher than the male expectation of life at birth ( 8 ). The stáble population of Model level 13 is constructed by assuming a Tate of growth of 3.5 percent which is the approximate level recorded by PGE for Pakistan. The second mortality model refers to Pakistan, in which the empirical results of PGE mortality data are utilised. For this mortality model the stable population is 7. © See for example; India, Government of, Census of India 1921 1; India, Government of, Census of India 1931 1; Visaria, Pravin.M, The Sex Ratio of the Population of India, unpublished Ph. D. dissertation submitted to Princeton University U.S.A., 1963; and Razzaque A. Rukanuddin, A Study of the Sex Ratio in Pakistan in Studies in Pakistan Demography, Warren C. Robinson (ed) Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Karachi, (in press), (1967) 8. Stolnitz, George J. A Century of International Mortality Trends Population Studies, 9, 24-55 (1955) and 10, 17-42 (1956) 554 constructed by using the 3.56 percent growth rate recorded by PGE. The age-specific sex ratios are derived for both mortality assumptions by assuming a sex ratio at birth of 1057”, These expected age-specific sex ratios and overall sex ratios are presented in Table 2 and Figure 2. 8. The age-specific sex ratio with a closed population will generally show a declining trend from the younger ages to the older ages, if the age data is accurate and complete. The younger age groups will show a higher sex ratio. This general pattern is the result of higher mortality risks among males in early ages. Ultimately with advancing age the sex ratio, will decline very rapidly and the overall sex ratio will approach unity e The age-specific sex ratio of the first mortality assumption: approximates the above mentioned hypothetical trend (Figure 2). The sex ratio remains around 1033 up to age group 25-29. After that it declines gradually. The age-specific sex ratios become less than unity from 50 years onward and the overall sex ratio of the population approaches unity. 9. According to the second mortality pattern which takes into con- sideration, the PGE reported Pakistan mortality experience, (col 5, Table 2, Figure 2) the expected age-specific sex ratios rise continu= ously up to age group 75-79 with a slight decline in the age group 50-54. The curve increases gradually up to age group 45-49, declines slightly in age group 50-54, and again increases. After age group 55-59 the sex ratio increases sharply up to age group 75-79; then it declines. 10. The above mentioned two mortality patterns indicate a contra= sting picture of the expected age-specific sex ratios. This is quite clear from Figure 2. According to the PGE mortality data, the sex ratio increases with the advance in age. According to the first mor- tality model we find after age group 15-19 an inverse correlation between the increase in ages and the sex ratio. The overall sex ratio of the stable population of Pakistan is 1078 « higher than the first mortality assumption (1024) and it moves far from unity. 11. Though the overall pattern of the age-specific sex ratios in the census and PGE are the same, the ratios vary greatly from one age group to another, The variations are quite large in the age groups 10-14, 20-24 9 Khan, Masihur Rahman, Lee L. Bean, A. Razzaque Rukanuddin op.cit; paragraph 3 10. United Nations, Age and Sex Patterns of Mortality: Model Life Tables for Under Developed Countries Division of Social Affairs, New York, (1955) 555 and in the later ages of life. The PGE age-specific sex ratios exhibit more fluctuations in almost all age groups when compared to the census age-specific sex ratios. 12. In the following section the observed census sex ratios are compared with the expected sex ratios of the PGE stable population. For purposes of comparison we assume that the enumeration of males has been correct and the effect of migration on the population of Pakistan is negligible. Taking into consideration the PGE mortality pattern the differences of the enumerated and expected sex ratios indicate the ex- cess or deficit of females in various age groups as well as in the over- all total. 13. Comparing the age-specific sex ratios of the census with the ex- pected ratios of the second mortality assumption, we find a more or less positive correlation in the pattern of enumerated and expected sex ratios from younger to older ages. An excess of females is observed in the age groups 0-4, 20-24, 25-29 and 30-34. In the balance of the age groups a deficit of females is observed. The deficit of females is quite marked in-the age groups 10-14, 55-59, and 85 and over. The largest female deficit is observed in the age group 10-14. This may be attributed partly to the economic activity question which was asked in the census of all males and females of 10 years and over, and partly to socio-cultural fac- tors resulting ín concealment of females. This has ultimately resulted in the sex-selective under-enumeration of females. The largest deficit of females in the age group 10-14 in PGE population, confirms our belief that the females are generally under-enumerated in this age group. The lowest sex ratio in the age group 20-24 (1007) indicates an excess of females in this age group, This may be due to correct or even over- reporting of females. In these ages most of the females marry and are not as likely to be concealed as unwed females near marriagable age. In the higher ages the sex ratio increases and females are found in deficits This is also related to socio-cultural factors. Males have a tendency in higher ages to over-report their ages for social prestige reasons, since old persons are respected more and this ultimately results in the inflation of the number in older ages. In Figure 2 the shaded portion below the expected pattern of age-specific curve indicates the extent of under-enumeration of females. The overall sex ratio according to this mortality level should be 1078, The overall under=enumeration of females 11. Razzaque, A. Rukanuddin op.cit; paragraph 5 556 in the 1961 census, thus seems to be approximately 3.0 percent. 14 Due to limitation of space a detailed comparison of the stable population age-specific sex ratios and theenumerated ratios of East and West Pakistan is not presented. Their deviations from the expected pattern are given in Table 3, and brief mention may be made of their overall sex ratios. The overall sex ratio of Fast Pakistan, according to its stable population model is 1070 in comparison to the census figure of 1076, indicating an under-enumeration of 0.5 percent females in the East Pakistan census. The observed sex ratio of West Pakistan census is unusually high (1158) when compared to the expected overall sex ratio (1086) obtained from West Pakistan PGE mortality experience. This suggests that 6.3 percent females have been missed in the 1961 census in West Pakistan, 15. If female mortality exceeds male mortality by an amount which results in a 2 to 3 year difference in life expectancy, then the over- ail sex ratio of population should be roughly 1070-1090. Any deviation from the expected age-specific sex ratio pattern indicates that females are not enumerated correctly. The distorted !'see=saw! age pattern of sex ratios can be explained in terms of mis-allocation of persons by age and the overall differences in the expected and enumerated sex ratio resulting from female under-enumeration. Future Prospects 16. Unless &# fertility declines in Pakistan, frequent child bearing will probably continue to result in high maternal mortality. With the rapid improvement in health, sanitation, with the eradication of malaria and other epidemics, the effective control of tuberculosis, respiratory and related diseases, the female mortality will decline gradually. Thus the females in the coming years will have a greater chance for survival. This will reduce the imbalance of sexes prevalent in the country and particularly in West Pakistan. 17. In addition to improvements in female mortality, the process of economic development, the extension of education among the masses, and the rising standard of living is likely to change the socio-cultural values existing in the country today. This will negate the factors currently producing sex-selective registration and sex-selective enumeration, 297 TABLE - 1 Ratios of Male/Female Death Probabilities ( q ) Pakistan and Provinced, PGE 1962-1963 and" * Princeton West Model Level 13°. An Pakistan ; East : West { Princeton West b A Pakistan Pakistan | Model level 13 x A Age groups] em = 50,07 | em = 49,18 { em = 51.101 em = 47.11 ef = 47.56 ; ef = 46.91 | ef = 48.79 | ef = 50.00 y 3 1 y (1) i (2) ÿ (3) y (4) 9 (5) 0 1167 1195 1129 1178 1. 4 828 894 760 988 5. 9 948 1040 800 964 10 - 14 789 679 914 899 15 - 19 576 363 815 969 20 - 24 525 333 818 1079 25 - 29 543 376 860 1045 30 - 34 549 495 685 1056 35 - 39 601 552 698 1119 40 - 46 801 839 770 1239 45 - 49 975 977 1009 1325 50 - 54 1193 1128 1347 1317 55 - 59 738 869 660 1309 60 - 64 863 1005 739 1248 65 - 69 874 957 812 1216 70 - 74 980 1016 951 1151 75 = 79 997 975 1063 1116 80 - 84 1166 1032 1442 - Source: a) Working sheets of PGE Life Tables prepared at Pakistan Institute of Development Economics. b) Coale, Ansley J. and Paul Demeny, Regional Model Life Tables and Stable Populations, Princeton University Press, 14, (1965) 558 TABLE - 2 Enumerated and Expected Age-Specific Sex Ratios for Pakistan Enumerated Sex Ratio [Expected Sex Ratio of Stable Populations ; ! i EGE Mortality of Age E 1961 a! 1963 fest Model level 13 Pakistan 1962-1963 groups J Census” | PGE 3 em = 47.11 years ! em = 50,07 years ¥ ! i ! ; ! ÿ 2 f = 50.00 years | & f = 47.56 years 1 i X r= 3.5 percent ! r = 3.56 percent 1 1 (1) 2) ' (3) (4) ! (5) All ages 1111 1104 1024 1078 0» 4 1005 1010 1033 1041 5-9 1084 1052 1033 1052 10 = 14 1256 1280 1034 1055 15 = 19 1066 1162 1036 1061 20 = 24 1007 861 1035 1074 25 = 29 1039 1013 1033 1090 30 - 34 1101 1086 1031 1108 35 - 39 1213 1250 1027 1127 40 - 44 1156 1111 1019 1143 45 - 49 1262 1266 1003 1149 50 - 54 1233 1154 982 1144 55 — 59 1338 1372 955 1156 60 = 64 1285 1330 921 1191 65 - 69 1292 1261 879 1224 70 74 1285 1389 830 1252 75 = 79 1276 1145 775 1258 80 - 84 1240 1279 690° 1202 85 + 1269 1160 1093 Note: a) Age groups 60 & over been halved into 5 year age _1 1 groups by formula fT / fry En” £1) / given in Manual III Methods of Population Projections by Sex and Age, United Nations, New York, (1956) b) denotes 80+ Source: Cols. 2) Census Bulletin No. 3; 1961 Census, Govermment of Pakis- tan; (3) PGE Base Population Tables PC-9 for the years 1962 and 1963; (4) Coale, Ansley J. and Paul Demeny op.cit; (5) Authors Computation 559 TABLE = 3 Under and Over-Enumeration of Females per thousand Males Compared to PGE Stable Population of Pakistan, Pakistan and Provinces, 1961 Census. : , Provinces All Paki Age groups ; akistan ! East Pakistan ! West Pakistan (1) 1 (2) 1 (3) ! (4) All ages - 28 - 5 - 58 0 =~ 4 + 34 + 55 + 5 5- 9 - 26 - 7 - 58 10 - 14 -152 -183 -113 15-19 - 4 + 78 - 82 20 - 24 + 63 +153 - 36 25 - 29 + 45 + 83 0 30 - 34 + 6 + 19 - 9 35 - 39 - 63 - 70 - 50 40 - 44 - 10 + 26 - 54 45 - 49 - 77 - 68 - 90 50 - 54 - 63 - 14 -122 55 - 59 -118 144 - 90 60 - 64 = 62 - 45 -101 65 - 69 - 43 - 34 - 83 70 - 74 - 21 - 24 - 58 75 - 79 - 11 - 10 - 59 80 - 84 - 25 + 15 -114 85+ -127 + 30 -319 Note: Based on the assumption that the enumeration of males is correct in each age group. 560 FIGURE — | RATIOS OF (MALE/FEMALE) AGE - SPECIFIC DEATH PROBABILITIES (n9x) OF PAKISTAN AND PROVINCES, PGE 1962-63 COMPARED WITH PRINCETON WEST MODEL LEVEL 13. nix-male Uma TA x-female nl x-female 1500 1500 ALL PAKISTAN 1400 EAST PAKISTAN L400 WEST PAKISTAN PRINCETON WEST MODEL 1300 LEVEL 13 [300 1200 [1200 110014 H100 1000 1000 9004 -900 800- -800 7004 -700 600- -600 5001 À 7 500 \ / 4004 \ J 400 \. 7 sr 3004 F300 20 0- L200 | 00 T T T T T T T T T T “Tr T Y T T T T ! o o ol 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 8 AGE GROUPS SOURCE: TABLE —1. 561 FIGURE -2 ENUMERATED AGE - SPECIFIC SEX RATIOS AND OVERALL SEX RATIOS OF PAKISTAN, 1961 CENSUS, COMPARED WITH THOSE OF STABLE POPULATIONS mA OF PRINCETON WEST MODEL LEVEL 13 AND OF PAKISTAN, my 1400 1400 1961 CENSUS SEX RATIO 1300 SEX RATIO OF STABLE POPULATION OF PAKISTAN m = 50.07 YEARS { = 47.56 YEARS T= 3.56 PERCENT e So Eo N SEX RATIO OF STABLE POPULATION \ OF PRINCETON WEST MODEL LEVEL 13 N o em = 47.11 YEARS MN [o] o ef = 50.0 YEARS — \ T = 3.50 PERCENT \ \ \ \ 40 45 so 55 60 65 AGE GROUPS SOURCE : TABLE —2. 2. 562 MORTALITY DECLINE IN A SAMPLE POPULATION IN NEW GUINEA By ReF.R. Scragg, M.D., DeTeM, € He, Director of Public Health, T.P.N.G. Territory Demography One tenth of the population of Papua and New Guinea was counted at a Territory-wide sample census in 1966. Previously local headcounts undertaken at different times through the year were added together to provide an annual population figure. Total births and deaths were recorded at these local censuses but many were missed and there has never been more than sporadic recordings of vital events. Accordingly, the only material with continuity is that arising from sample studies such as the one under discussion, The Samples a. Four rural groups of villages in Bougainville and New Ireland Districts have been studied in detail since 1949. These four samples are approximately 0.225% of the population of Papua and New Guinea as recorded in 1965 as 2,117,917, and within their districts 2.8% of the population of Bougainville and 6.7% of the population of New Ireland, The study has included the recording of all births, deaths, marriages and migrations. Vital rates have been obtained by an analysis of the births and deaths against population at risk over four-yearly periods. be The group studied presents the following populations: 1949 1% Bougainville (Lemankua 413 708 District (Solas 724 1,212 New Ireland (Tigak 777 1,055 District (Tabar 1,462 1,792 Total 3,376 4,767 3e 563 c These samples are not proposed as representative of all conditions in the Territory, but of populations with the socio-economic. | conditions in most Territory islands and among some of the Mainland coastal people. The rates would apply to about one third of the population of the Territory. d. A report on the Let four years of the survey to 1953 was e published in 1957's. A comparison of the rates of mortality between the various areas showed certain significant differences. i. The male rate for five years of age and over for Tabar was significantly higher due to the higher number of persons at risk aged over 45 years. ii. The female rate for five years of age and over for Lemankua was significantly lower than in all other areas. This may have been due to the small size of the sample in this area. iii. The rates for males and females aged 0-4 years were significantly higher in Solas than in any of the other areas. This higher mortality was due in part to the higher incidence of malaria in this area. Birth Dates Initially, only a small number of persons had a known date of birth, When the date was unknown the year of birth was estimated by consideration of age of children, parents and siblings, events of importance, and physical characteristics. Over the period of the study the percentage of lmown date has increased and at the 1965 count the date of birth was mown for 92.6% of the persons aged 19 and less, 30% of those aged 20-39, and 1.5% of those aged 40 years and over, and 54.8% of all persons. Age Distribution a. Over the sixteen year period there has been a decrease in mortality as shown later, Fertility has increased in all areas and this increase has been most marked in the New Ireland District. At the commencement of the study, the population in all areas in this district was static or declining. The sample has an absolute excess of males with a tertiary sex ratio of 121 in 1949 and 117 in 1965. Due to the increased fertility and the lowered mortality, the age structure of the population has changed. Some indication of the population distribution over the first and latest periods is evident in Tables 3 and 4. The percentage aged 14 and less has increased in Bougainville from 43% to 52% and in New Ireland from 25% to 38% over the period of the study. 1 Scragg R.F.R., Depopulation in New Ireland, T.P.N.G. Health Monograph 1967 50 be a. be Ce 564 Over the period of sixteen years, this increased reproduction, the better survival and the movement into the 15-24 year age group of those born during the war, have tended to lower the proportion in the middle age groups. In the earlier report, the population distribution in the first period compared with that of Australia in the 1890's. The population pyremid for the recent period is similar with widening at the base and broadening at the tope Crude Death Rates Crude death rates for all areas are shown in Table 1 in comparison with a Philippines figure for 1950 and an Australian figure for 1964. The changes between the first and final period are statistically significant in all areas and in the combined rate. The change has been greatest in Solas. The rate in 1964 equals that of the Philippines for 1950 and approaches that for Australia in three of the individual areas. Infant Mortality Rate This has fallen significantly since the first survey in all areas except Lemankua as shown in Table 2, Solas which previously had the highest figure, now has the lowest at 27, and is approaching the Australian rate of 19.06, In Tabar and Tigak the rate is one third and one half of the earlier rate, The decline for all areas from 189 to 53 is highly significant and some considerable part of the reduction in crude rates is no doubt due to the reduction of the rates for this age group. These rates are all far less than the rate for the Philippines in 1950 of 101.4, but they do not indicate the overall Territory rate as does the Philippines rate. They do indicate, however, a standard that can be achieved through minimal health services. Factors in Reduction of Infant Mortality Rate The decline in rates has been associated in part with changes in the medical services in the various areas. In 1959 a malaria control programme was commenced. This has not eradicated malaria, but has significantly reduced the amount of malaria to the extent that fever and enlarged spleen are far less common in any of the areas, and in all areas it is better than it was in Lemankua where the incidence was previously the lowest. The control of malaria has little effect on adult mortality, but is the prime factor in the reduction of infant mortality, Along with this, medical services have improved. Sisters are working in close proximity to the people in Solas. Vaccination against whooping cough, one of the important killers, has become regular and this disease has had little effect in recent years. The reduction to 58 in two of the areas is consistent with minimal services such as Aid Posts and casual visits by medical personnel. The figure of 84 in Lemankua 6. de De Ce de 565 has been complicated by the instability of the Hahalis Welfare Cult and an outbreak of gastro-enteritis during the period. Overall, in the absence of major epidemics, a figure of about 53 appears to be consistent with the current socio-economic environment and its effect on the health, e and Sex Specific Mo Rate The reduction in crude mortality rates is expanded and compared with Australien rates in Tables 3 and 4 and shown in figures 1 and 2 where age specific mortality rates for five-yearly groups for all areas are shown for males and females. In combining all areas it is broadly assumed that the mortality experience of people in all the areas in any age group is in general similar, As the number of persons in any age group in each individual area is small, the number dying in many cases is nil, The tables show that significant changes in mortality have occurred in males and females in all age groups. In males the significance is at the level p< 0:0005 when one compares the experience in 1962 to 1965 as a model against the experience from 1949 to 1953. In the 25-49 year age group where the variation appears minimal the probability is p70,05 indicating even greater significance in the upper and lower age groups. The 1965 pattern indicates a considerable reduction in the mortality of all age groups up to 29, Tables for the intervening periods from 1953 to 1962 show that this reduction has been occurring over all periods. From age 30 onwards, a reduction has occurred but this is more evident in the years from 65 on, Some of this later reduced mortality could arise from an overestimation of the ages of adults during the first studies. A similar situation applies for females. Probabilities are similar except in the age groups 10-34 where the change is barely significant = 0,17C p< 0,05, In females the higher reduction in mortality is evident through to the age of 54. The reductions in all of the four periods of the survey have been fairly consistent. The pattern for 1949-53 would approximate that existing in England and Wales at about the year 1850, The pattern for 1962-65 is similar to that for England and Wales for 1900, A detailed comparison has not been undertaken as graduated mortality rates have not been prepared, It is of interest that it took 50 years in England and Wales for the mortality to fall to the same extent as it took only 12 years in the populations under study. A further improvement of the mortality to reach the current figure for England and Wales, would depend on the quality of health Services provided. Te 8. 566 A similar comparison has been made by Dorn?. Environmental Differences 8e be Ce The previous report indicated many differences between the four populations under study. The incidence of malaria was much higher in Solas, Historically, there was greater economic development and education in the New Ireland area depending on the proximity of the district centre. These factors effected the demographic picture in the various villages. Many of these differences have now disappeared. Educationally, there are more schools but there is still a gradient from highest in Tigak, then Solas with Tabar and Lemankua equal at about average Territory level, Economically, there has been some levelling with mew plantings of crops and improved communications, but Lemankua and Tabar would be average, Solas below and Tigak above average. All areas have had a malaria control programme acting continuously for seven years and this appears to have been the major influence on the health of the areas, It has eliminated the majority of deaths from this disease, The availability of penicillin has eliminated many deaths from pneumonia in older age groups. Housing and water supply have improved, the latter reducing deaths from bowel diseases. These changes are considered to have produced the same general mortality and morbidity picture in all areas, except that the immediate availability of qualified medical assistance has not been common to all. Tabar has only had this over the last year. The quality of medical services in Tabar the area least served, is below average for that of the New Guinea islands region, but above the average existing in the Highlands and Mainland regions. The quality of the service in the other three areas is greater than that existing in any other rural area of the Territory. Implications ae. 2 The rapid reduction in mortality has long term implications within the Territory, The expectation of life at birth in these areas is now 55.4 years from a previous figure of 34.3 years. This change has occurred in twelve years. The increased percentage of surviving children are dependent on a relatively uneducated group of adults, The rapid increase in the number of children brings increasing needs for education, health and economic developmant to support the increasing population, At the village level, a subsistence village functions in relation to the means the people Dorn H.F., The Study of Population, The University of Chicago Press, 456 (1959) be de Ce 567 use to get to their gardens, As a village increases rapidly in size, either tae people spend more time travelling to and fron their gardens or move into the garden areas to establish satellite units, The thirst for education and the need of health tend to force people to stay within the established villages and for these to reach a size well beyohd the potential of a subsistence economy, This will result in reduction of the availability of food and money to each unit unless a major economic development occurs. It is estimated that the population of the Territory will double in about 20 years. The increase will be greatest in the areas where malaria control exists, In the settled areas the population will increase by up to four times through the attractions of the urban community. In areas without malaria services, the rate of increase will be less but overall the population of the Territory should pass four million about 1984. Family planning may extend beyond the urban situation where it is being tested at the moment, The newer methods may be usable in the rural situation and no doubt better methods will develop year by year, Traditional attitudes are strongly against family planning and it is not acceptable in the village situation, It will be many years before the rural person sees in perspective the problems that arise from a large family, The communal system of living will close his eyes to the drain that a large family has on his, his children's and the country's future, The Polynesian areas of the Pacific have no malaria and accordingly the people have little illness and death except when visitors bring disease to their isolated islands, In New Guinea malaria was present and therefore the people suffered and numbers increased slowly. The removal of malaria places New Guinea in the demographic context of Polynesia except that better communications have eliminated the repeated viral epidemics that will still worry any isolated island. Mortality experience has improved rapidly in these areas where it has been studied. The number of children within villages indicate similar improvement in other areas. For some years the mortality experience in the Territory is going to be similar to that in most areas of Asia, and it could rapidly approach the level of a developed country, Without an improvement in economy and extension of health services, this state would be short lived and the mortality could revert to the situation still existing in many parts of the Territory. 568 TABLE 1 CRUDE DEATH RATES PER 1,000 PERSONS PERIOD LEMANKUA SOLAS + TIGAK + TABAR COMBINED RATE Philippines 1950 1949/53 19.1 36.9 17,9 26.0 25.6 11.4 1953/57 13.2 24.1 18.5 18.6 19.1 1957/61 16.3 17.8 9.7 18.4 16.0 Australia 1964 1961/65 9.96 7,62 9.8 15.4 11.4 9.03 TABIE 2 INFANT MORTALITY PER 1,000 LIVE BIRTHS PERIOD LEMANKUA SOLAS TIGAK TABAR COMBINED Philippines 1950 1949/53 89 325 106 150- 189 101.4 1953/57 102 147 45 96 103 1957/61 73 79 17 38 52 Australia 1964 1961/65 84 27 58 58 53 19.06 TABIE 3 M ALES 1949 - 1953 1961 - 1965 o AGE RATES RISKS DEATHS — RATE RISKS DSATHS RATE | 196% 0 1 333 64 192.2 397 21 5249 21.7 1= 4 753 21 27,9 | 1454.5 8 5.5 1.1 5-9 500,5 5 10.0 } 1225.3 3 2.4 0.5 10-14 7,245 5 6,7 85345 1 1.2 0.5 15-19 751.5 5 6,6 515.5 1 1.9 1.2 20424 64645 7 10.2 59545 1 1,7 1.7 25—29 587 4 6.8 751,5 3 4.0 1.3 30=24, 690 6 3,7 59745 5 5.4 1.8 35-39 665 16 2. 570.5 3 5.2 2.3 20-47 58845 5 8.5 52645 5 8,9 da O 45-49 384.5 9 23.4 610 10 16.4 GR 50=54 220 14 63.6 459.5 17 37.0 10.3 55-59 198 10 50,5 325.5 11 33.8 1744 60-64 187 20 106,9 124 8 6445 28,2 65-69 76.5 13 169,9 96,5 3 31.1 dea 3 70-74 44 8 181.8 5945 5 54.0 65.1 75-79 0.5 1 2000,0 13 2 153.8 98.8 80-84 11 2 181.3 | 155,1 85-59 260,6 Age Specific Mortality Rates for a sample population of New Guinea Males 1949-53 and 1961-65 compared with Australian Males 1964. 570 TABLE 4 FEMALES AUST. 1949 = 1953 1961 - 1965 DEATH AGE RATES RISKS DSATHS RATE RISKS DIATHES RATA 1964 0-1 297 58 195.3 | 389 21 54.0 16.7 1-4 71045 27 38.0 | 128405 14 10.9 0.9 5- 9 39345 3 7.6 | 1072.5 1 0.9 0.4 10-14 609.5 3 4.9 | 705.5 3 4.2 0.3 15-19 545.5 5 9.2 | 395.5 1 2.5 0.6 20-24 661 4 6.1 | 492.5 3 6.1 0.6 25-29 183 6 12.4 | 550.5 1 1.5 0.7 30-34 45045 7 15.5 | 543 4 7.4 1.0 35-39 343.5 15 43.7 | 540 2 3.7 1.6 40-44, 434 6 12.4 | 373 2 5.4 2.4 45-49 205 8 26.2 | 308 2 6.5 3.9 50-5 210.5 7 33.2 | 353 6 17,0 5.7 55-59 179.5 5 27,8 | 296.5 9 30.3 8.6 60-64 206.5 17 82.3 | 127 6 47.2 13.9 5-69 69 10 144.9 | 130.5 5 38,3 22. 70-74 12 4 333.3 89 8 8949 33.9 75-79 1 0 0,0 22.5 1 24.0 65.1, 80-84 2 0 0.0 116.1 85-89 212.8 Age Specific Mortality Rates for a sample population of New Guinea Females 1949-53 and 1961-65 compared with Australian Females 1964. 571 EIGURE 1 Age Specific Mortality Rates for a sample population of New Guinea Males 1949-53 and 1961-65 compared with Australian Males 1964. / 200 | / 200 / / 100 10 60 60 40% 40 c 2 = 2208 20 Le) a v € y Wu 3 ! 10 £ 10% - H a , a 1 ; 6 < 6% = B v Q 4 « 2 New Guinea sample 1949-53 2 —[ÁÁ] New Guinea sample 1961-65 pol «vc 777 Australians 1964 10 06 06 04 v y . 04 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Age in years 572 FIGURE 2 Ago Specific Mortality Rates for sample po tion of New Guinea Females 1949-53 and 1961-65 compared with Australian Females 1964. 3000 300 20001 200 1000 100- y 800 0 Females 600 600 400 407 c S = = 200 200 Q o a ! > \ nv | 2 1008, 10 = 804! 8-0 f u a 6041 6-0 » 1 < | = 404 1 4-0 uv Q | 1 | 1 204 | 2.0 1 ' , New Guinea sample 1949-53 | 1 , 10 1-0 1 , New Guinea sample 1961-65 \ 7 \ 247 121100 Australians 1964 06 06 \ r -- \ ' — 04 04 NN / 4 > — 7 y 7 ; r — — T > — + 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Age in years 573 POSTWAR MORTALITY TRENDS IN MALAYA by DR. SAW SWEE-HOCK Head, Division of Statistics University of Malaya 1. One of the most significant demographic changes that occurred during the first decade or so after the Second World War is the accelerated speed at which mortality levels were brought down in many developing countries. While this change has been examined in quite a number countries, it is the purpose of this paper to present a brief account of the nature and pattern of mortality reduction recorded in Malaya during the postwar years up to 1958. 2. In Table 1 are set forth the crude death rates based on corrected deaths? and corrected population. 2 Despite the inherent shortcoming of this index as a measure of mortality; the figures are of some use in depicting firstly, the broad trends in overall mortality over the years, and secondly, the adverse mortality conditions experienced during the Japanese Occupation. The gradual reduction in the death rates over the major part of the period suggests that the long-term movement in the general mortality level has been essentially downward. In the main this decline may be attributed to advances in medical science and to the efforts of the health authorities in improving the standard of hygiene and sanitation among the masses. Many tropical diseases, such as malaria, that used to take a fairly heavy toll of lives were slowly but effectively brought under control. However, the possibility that the shift in the age composition of the population towards a more youthful one being partly responsible for the fall in the crude rates should not be discounted. Tonly the infant deaths were adjusted for under-enumera- tion and this was done by assuming that the infant deaths were at least as incompletely registered as births. It was found that the births were under-registered to the extent of 10.24 per cent; for an account of the method of testing birth registration completeness, see Saw Swee-Hock, "A Note on the Under-Registration of Births in Malaya during the Intercensal Period 1947-1957," Population Studies, Vo1.XVIII, No. 1, July 1964, pp. 35-51. he child population under age 10 enumerated at the census was replaced by an inddpendently estimated child population derived from the relevant statistics of births, deaths and migration. 574 3. In view of the conditions prevailing in the country at the time of the Japanese Occupation, it is to be gxpected that a higher mortality was recorded during this period. The war broke out in Malaya on 8th December 1940, and the Japanese Occupation lasted officially from 1st February 1941 to 9th September 1945, and this accounts for the peak level being attained in 1944 instead of 1945. The principal causes of death were beri-beri resulting from deficient diets overloaded with tapioca and potato carbohydrates, dysentry also caused by deficient and improper diets, and malaria due to the neglect of anti-malarial works and the shortage of quinine.” Though the disruption and lack of preventive and curative medical facilities have contributed to Table 1. Crude Death Rates, 1934-1958 Year Rate Year Rate 1935 22.6 1947 19.4 1936 21.1 1948 16.3 1937 20.4 1949 14.3 1938 20.2 1950 15.9 1939 18.9 1951 15.4 1940 19.9 1952 13.8 1941 18.1 1953 14.3 1942 20.9 1954 12.4 1943 25.6 1955 11.6 1944 30.3 1956 11.4 1945 26.3 1957 12.2 1946 21.9 1958 10.9 the high death rates, it is known that chronic malnutrition and under-nutrition due to acute food shortages were the two leading causes. Deaths from active combat and air-raids were believed to be not substantial, except perhaps during the first two or the statistics in respect of deaths registered during the war are deficient, and the method of estimating these deaths is described in Saw Swee-Hock, "A Problem of Estimating a Contingency Table Arising in Demographic Ana}ysis,' Population Studies, Vol. XIX, No. 3, March 1966, pp. 311-315. “During the war the staple food of the Malayans consisted primarily of sweet potatoes and tapiocas, mixed with rice occasion- ally, and very little protein food such as meat. Malayan Union, Report of the Medical Department for the Year 1946, Government Press, Kuala Lumpur. ÉMalayan Union, Annual Report on the Malayan Union, 1946, Government Press, Kuala Lumpur, p.66. 275 three months following the outbreak of war. The fighting, started on 8th December 1944, lasted for about seventy days only and the Japanese Occupation terminated without any further combat when Japan surrendered unconditionally. 4, The first full year of peace-time condition recorded a rate of 21.9 which represents a marked drop as compared with the rate of 26.3 recorded in the previous year. Since then the rate has been further reduced, though not in every year, and by 1958 it was brought down to 10.9. The decline in mortality is also reflected in the infant mortality, neonatal mortality and maternal mortality rates laid out in Table 2. Table 2. Infant Mortality, Neonatal Mortality and Maternal Mortality Rates, 1946-1958 Infant Neonatal Maternal Year Mortality Mortality Mortality Rate Rate Rate 1946 91.7 : 31.9 6.6 1947 102.2 40.2 7.0 1948 89.6 36.4 5.8 1949 80.6 33.4 5.3 1950 101.6 34.4 5.3 1951 97.3 31.5 5.7 1952 90.0 32.1 4.7 1953 83.4 31.1 4,7 1954 83.1 30.2 4.8 1955 78.4 29.5 4.2 1956 75.2 30.1 4.0 1957 75.5 29.6 2.8 1958 79.6 32.2 2.8 5. Apart from the annual fluctuations, the data suggest that the long-term trend in the infant mortality rates has been generally downwards during the postwar years, but the decline has been rather sluggish. In thirteen years the level was reduced by slightly more than 14 per cent. It is very likely that after the transfer of military to civial administration the vital registration system took time to function effectively, and this probably accounts for the lower figures for early postwar years. The fall in the neonatal mortality rate was comparatively slower, but the maternal mortality rate was significantly reduced hy about two-thirds during the whole period. 576 6. An idea of the extent of mortality declines at the other ages may be observed in Table 3 showing the age-spegific death rates for the two three-year periods 1946-48 and 1956-53. In conformity with observations in other countries, mortality in Malaya is very high in the first few years of life and decreases to the lowest in the 10-14 age group, and begins to rise gradually until about the mid-forties after which it suddenly goes up rather steeply. Table 3. Age Specific Death Rates and Standardized Death Rates by Race, 1946-48 and 1956-58. Age Group 1946-48 1956-58 1946-48=100 ALL RACES o 94.73 77.02 81.3 1- 4 24.65 8.89 36.1 5-9 8.26 2.70 32.7 10-14 4,36 1.64 37.6 15-19 4,93 2.36 47.9 20-24 7.56 3.37 44.6 25-29 9.44 4.28 45.3 30-34 11.57 5.16 44,6 35-39 12.55 “6.43 51.2 4o-44 15.02 7.83 52.1 45-49 19.62 10.66 54.3 50-54 26.58 14.92 56.1 55 & Over 64.10 57.15 89.2 AGE-STANDARDIZED DEATH RATES ALL RACES 19.55 11.98 61.3 Malays 24.19 14.39 59.5 Chinese 14.48 8.77 60.6 Indians 17.89 11.28 63.1 7. The evidence provided in the table points to a fairly substantial, though expectedly not uniform, decrease in mortality at the various age groups. It may be noted that the greatest reduction, by about two-thirds, seems to have been recorded in the adolescent age group 5-9, while at the next few higher age groups the reduction amounts to slightly more than one-half in general. From the mid-thirties onwards the reduction becomes progressively smaller until 55 & Over in which a drop of only about 10 per cent or a description of the method of graduating the rates, see Saw Swee-Hock, "Malaya: Table of Male working Life, 1957," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A (General), Vol. 128, Part 3, 1965, pp. 421-438. 517 is recorded.” It seems probable that this is due to the 'generation factor', that is, deaths at old ages are basically attributable to degenerative ailments that are not so readily remedied by medical science. 8. The amount of reduction in mortality on the whole may perhaps be beat gauged by the age-standardized death rates” also included in Table 3. According to the rates, a fall of about 39 per cent in overall mortality was registered during the period under review. A more significant point refers to the almost similar amount of decrease enjoyed by each of the three major races. 9. In one respect the postwar mortality reduction may be considered as a continuation of the downward trend experienced in the prewar days, and in another as part of the unprecedented rapid declines recorded in most countries outside Europe and North America in recent years.10 Commenting on the latter phenomenon, Balfour attributes the marked and often sudden changes in mortality rates to the following two broad groups of factors, which have evidently been also the underlying forces behind the recent favourable mortality trends in Malaya. The first of the two general causes most often credited is the higher levels of living resulting from socio-economic development. Reduced to their simplest terms these levels of living are food, clothing, shelter, education, and communication. The second general cause is technalogical advances, including the products of medical and biological research, the education, and public health and sanitary measures. Between the two groups of causes there is undoubtedly an overlapping of functions and effects. 11 10. For purposes of comparing mortality conditions in Malaya and some other countries, perhaps the most suitable and convenient indices are the conventional infant mortality rate and the average Ort is reasonable to expect the progressively slower rate of decrease to continue in quinary age groups above age 54, but unfortunately this tendency is not. verifiable as the 1946-49 death statistics have been tabulated in such a manner that 55 & Over is the last age group. Ihe standardized death rates are calculated according to the direct method employing the 1957 Census age distribution as the standard. 104 detailed survey of postwar mortality declines in various regions of the world is given in"Chapter I: Factors in Declining Mortality" in the 1957 U.N. Demographic Yearbook, New York, 1957, pp. 1-12. Marshall C. Balfour, "Some Considerations Regarding the Permanence of Recent Declines in Mortality in Underdeveloped Areas," Trends and Differentials in Mortality, Milbank Memorial Fund, New York, 1956, p. 37. 578 expectation of life at birth. Among the countries included in Table 4, the infant mortality of Malaya stands somewhere in the intermediate e Table 4. Infant Mortality Rates and Expectation of Life at Birth for Some Selected Countries Infant Expectation of Life Country Mortality at Birth Rates o Y 1960 o ear Sweden 16.6 72.2 1957 Eng. & Wales 21.8 70.1 1956-57 New Zealand 22.6 70.6 1955-57 United States 25.6 69.4 1957 France 27.5 69.1 1957 Taiwan 30.5 62.7 1956-58 Japan 30.7 65.4 1957 Singapore 34,8 63.4 1956-58 U.S.S.R. 35 67.5 1957-58 Spain 43.5 61.1 1950 Italy 43.8 57.9 1954-57 Trinidad & Tobago 45,4 61.6 1957 Malaya 68.9 56.6 1956-58 Portugal 77.5 61.3 1957 Yugoslavia 87.3 53.1 1952-54 Dominica 107.3 - - Chile 127.3 51.9 1952 range. Though fairly satisfactory by comparison with most under- developed countries, Malaya's rate of 68.9 has to be lowered to about slightly less than one-third its 1960 level before it corres- pond to that experienced in most industrially advanced regions in the West. By and large this applies equally to Malaya's expectation of life at birth, which can still be raised by at least 15 years before the best levels:so far attained are recorded. 519 INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR THE SCIENTIFIC STUDY OF POPULATION SYDNEY CONFERENCE 21st - 25th August 1967 SESSION VII "INTERNAL MIGRATION AND URBANISATION" Moderator : K.C. Zachariah Thursday, 24th August, 1967 9.00 a.m. to 10.45 a.m. 580 581 RECENT TRENDS OF INTERNAL MIGRATION AND URBANIZATION IN JAPAN Shigemi Kono” Population Division United Nations I. Population Redistribution 1. The 1965 census returns of Japan reveal a continuation of already large-scale urbanization and heavy concentration of population in metropolitan areas, This trend, which has accompanied Japan's extraordinary postwar tech- nological progress, has been accelerating since about 1950 as the result of a massive flow of migration into large metropolitan cities and surrounding areas, The impact of this phenomenal growth of urbanization upon the total economy of the country and the lives of the people has created in Japan the most critical demographic and social problem of the latter part of the 20th century. 2. Three major areas are particularly notable for their enormous size and concentration of population and their rapidity of growth. First in order of size is the Tokyo metropolitan area; second, the Osaka metropolitan area centreing around the Osaka-Kobe-Kyoto axis; and third, the Nagoya metropolitan area, on the Pacific Coast, situated between the Tokyo and Osaka metropolitan areas. The delimitation of these metropolitan areas has not as yet been officially defined. However, if a tentative delimitation is made rather arbitrarily to include an area within a 50-kilometre radius from the centre of the nuclear city (actually from the city hall), the population residing in these three areas together accounts for 37.3 percent of the total popula- tion of Japan. The corresponding proportions for the years 1955 and 1960 are 30,1 and 33.3 percent, respectively. In a metropolitan area constituted of the central prefecture and surrounding prefectures which are functionally interrelated to the central city, in 1965 that of Tokyo comprised 21.4 percent of the total population of Japan, metropolitan Osaka 13.3 percent and metro- politan Nagoya 8.2 percent. Together they accounted for 42.8 percent of the total population. * The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily of the United Nations. The author is on leave of absence from the Institute of Population Problems, Ministry of Health and Welfare, Japan. Japan Bureau of Statistics, Wagakuni no Jinko (The Population of Japan), Tokyo, 1967, p. 7. 582 3. In order to present a picture of the recont trend of urbanization in Japan, Table 1 provides the percentage increases for 1955-1960 and 1960- 1965 according to locality-size by number of inhabitants. There haves been some minor boundary changes among cities, towns and villages during each of these two five-year periods but adjustments have been made by the bureau of Statistics so that coverage for the beginning of the period is in conformity with that for the end of the period. This table also shows the percentage shares of population growth according to locality-size. 4. From reference to Table 1 a few points are immediately apparent. First, in recent years, urban increase has been accruing in the large- and medium-sized cities and population has been decreasing not only in villages and towns but also in some of the small-sized cities of less than 30,000 inhabitants. In cities of 30,000 and over, the order of percentage increase has been more or less proportional to the scale of locality-size class, that is, the larger the size-class the larger the percentage increase and vice versa, except for the seven greatest cities which each have a popula- tion of over a million. In fact, the largest growth rate is found in cities with population of half a million to a million. 5. During the period 1955-1960, the population increase in cities of more than a million accounted for over 60 percent of the national population growth. (From 1950 to 1955 the share of total growth in these cities is estimated at 61.5 percent.) During the pariod of 1960.1965, however, the percentage share of population increase in those great cities has considerably decreased to 31.7 percent. On the other hand, in respect of both the per- centage increase of population and the percentage share of national popula tion increase, the medium. and large-sized cities with population ranging from 100,000 to a million have recently gained great importance. From 1960 to 1965 these cities contributed 77.2 percent to the total population growth compared with 51.7 percent for the period 1955-1960. Particularly remarkable are the upturns of population increase in cities with population from 100,000 to 300,000. However, interestingly enough, most of those medium-sized cities which have shown rapid population increase recently are actually satellite cities located within the three metropolitan areas. For 1960 to 1965 a total of 35 cities of 100,000 to a million inhabitants showed an increase of more than 20 percent, but all these 35 cities belong to the three metropolitan areas, Likewise, 37 cities in this broad size-class showed an increase of from 10 to 20 percegy but 15 cities out of the 37 are located in the thres metropolitan areas.X 6. The above approximations indicate that, despite the slowdown of the population increase rate in great cities numbering more than a million, the importance of these cities has never lessened; rather it has increased by expansion beyond traditional administrative boundaries into outlying zones, swallowing in the fringe areas bedroom and satellite cities whose economic and social functions are so heavily dependent upon the mother city. If we consider the population growth within a metropolitan area as a whole, we see that it has been tremendous. 2/ ‘Ibid., pp. 34-35. 583 II. Metropolitanization and Decentralization Within Metropolitan Area 7. Table 2 gives population increase rates and percentage shares of the national population increase during three five-year periods, 1950-1955, 1955- 1960 and 1960-1965, for the three great metropolitan areas which are delimited by a 50-kilometre radius. The population increase rates for these three areas are far greater then the national increase rate, which shows only about 5 percent for 1955-1960 and 1960-1965. The rates for the Tokyo area for the period 1955-1960 and 1960-1965 are slightly less than that for the period 1950-1955. Highly unusual circumstances prevailed in 1950-1955, however, when the return to great cities was in full swing after their wartime mass evacuation. It is especially impressive that the percentage share of the population growth for the three areas combined accounts for 113.4 percent of the total national increase during 1960-1965. This means that the percentage population gain in these three metropolitan areas actually outstripped that of the national population, a fact which is explained by the absolute decrease in population in the remaining areas of Japan. Among the three giants, growth in Tokyo alone contributed 64 percent to the national total in 1960-1965. 8. A useful attempt has recently been initiated by the Bureau of Statis- tics to show the differential pattern of population distribution and growth for the three giant metropolitan areas. Within a 50.kilometre radius centred on the centre of each city, five concentric zones at 1lO-kilometre intervals have been demarcated: zone 1 is located at the centre, and successive zones follow in order with zone 5 occupying the outermost ring 40-50 kilometres from the centre. For each of the three metropolitan areas, the percentage share of population and the average density in each of the five concentric zones aregiven in Table 3 for 1965. 9. Interesting features of the distribution of population and its growth in these zones may be observed by reference to Tables 3 and 4. In general, the three metropolitan areas of Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya show three different stages of metropolitan development according to the size of population agglom- eration and density of the central city. These differences are indicative of the degree of internal differentiation in regard to land use, the extent of capital-resource accumulation and investment in the central city and sur- rounding areas, the history of the central city, etc. Among the three, the Tokyo area is the most developed and influential with respect to the national economy. Osaka comes next and the Nagoya area is the least in this evaluation of metropolitan development. Comparing population density, Tokyo is a far more densely settled area. The much lower density in the Nagoya area than in the other two areas would suggest that Nagoya's metropolitan domain is substantially narrower than the others and is perhaps confined only to a LO.kilometre radius instead of 50. 10. Another observation may be made from comparing recent population increases for the five concentric zones in the three metropolitan areas. As shown in Table 4, an interesting trend to decentralization has developed in the Tokyo metropolitan area. Population growth in the centre of the 584 was Tokyo metropolitan areamuch lower than it was in adjacent rings located at 10-20 and 20-30 kilometres from the centre, beginning in the period 1955- 1960. In the 1960-1965 period, centrifugal forces have had further effect and a trend to depopulation in the downtown area has set in for the first time, By contrast, the outer zones, particularly those situated at 20-30 and 30-40 kilometres from the centre have recorded the highest percentage increase. Decentralization and suburbanization within the framework of the metropolitan area have been increasingly evident in the Tokyo metropolitan area. 11. In the Osaka and Nagoya metropolitan areas, too, a kind of decen- tralizing tendency is observed from a comparison of the two periods 1955- 1960 and 1960-1965. During the period 1960-1965, the fastest growth occurred in zone 2 as observed in the case of Tokyo five years before. The downtown district shows a decline in growth rate, seemingly following Tokyo's past course of decentralization within the metropolitan area. Comparing the Osaka and Nagoya metropolitan areas, however, the tendency to suburbanization seems more rapid in Osaka than Nagoya, reflecting its greater population concen- tration, higher density in the central city and longer history of industriali- zation and urbanization. III. Metropolitan-Ward Migration 12. The above discussion dealt with urbanization in Japan. In this section, consideration is given to urban-ward migration. It is known to be the principal cause of the rapid growth of metropolitan and other urban re. gions, operating by indirect as well as direct means. An indirect factor of urban growth is age-selectivity of migrants. A high proportion of migrants to metropolitan areas is composed of young people and their normally high fertility contributes to a large portion of natural increase, As shown in Table 5, the percentage of population increase resulting from natural increase is smaller than that from net in-migration for the three metropolitan areas combined during the period 1960-1965, but the value (42.7) itself is by no means a small figure. In fact, the Nagoya metropolitan area shows an even larger percentage from natural increase than from migration, However, a substantial portion of this natural increase would basically be attributable to migration. 13. The Bureau of Statistics compiles and publishes migration statistics based on Resident Registration by the Monthly and Annual Reports on Migration. These statistics supply not only the number of cases of net and gross migra- tion in each prefecture but also indicate the direction of migration streams between prefectures of Japan, According to the Resident Registration statis. tics, the total volume of migrants annually recorded in recent years amounts to about 7 million, and half of them are inter-prefectural migrants In 1964, 585 total migrants numbered 7,257,000 of which 50.1 Porcent were inter-prefectural and the rest were those who moved within a prefecture.3/ 14. For every year from 1960 to 1964 inclusive, the volume of inter. prefectural migration into the three metropolitan areas of Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya accounted for 63 to 64 percent of that of the total gross migration across prefectural boundaries. The residual 36 to 37 percent is the propor- tion of migration from metropolitan to non-metropolitan areas as well as be- tween non-metropolitan areas. By "metropolitan" here is simply meant the three metropolitan areas of Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya, not delimited by a 50- kilometre radius but by the boundaries of outlying prefectures of the central prefecture. Therefore, the above figure gives only an approximation to the magnitude of migration into the three metropolitan areas, Whatever the dif- ference in coverage of metropolitan area may be, however, a majority of migra. tion streams are of a metropolitan-ward type in Japan and this trend has al. * ready been evidenced by the rapid population increase in the metropolitan areas and their stupendously large share of the total population increase, 15. The above discussion in the two foregoing paragraphs was concerned with gross migration. Turning to net migration, even more striking tendencies appear. Japan is divided into 46 prefectures. Out of 46, however, 35 pre- fectures experienced net out-migration and only 11 recorded net in-migration. Of these 11, nine prefectures actually belong to the three metropolitan areas according to the definition of metropolitan area mentioned in paragraph 14. 16, Among those prefectures showing net in-migration in recent years, two suburban prefectures of Tokyo, namely Kanagawa and Saitama experienced the highest net in-migration rates at 36.6 and 35.2 per thousand population, respectively, for the year 1964, far greater than in any other prefectures. The next highest in-migration rate is recorded again by a Tokyo suburban prefecture, Chiba, at 26.4 per thousand. On the other hand, it is interest- ing to note that Tokyo Prefecture itself shows a very small net in-migration rate, only 3.6 per thousand, and this is thought to be clearly linked with the process of decentralization as already seen in the Tokyo metropolitan area. In the cases of the Osaka and Nagoya metropolitan areas, however, the net in-migration rates for Osaka and Nagoya Prefectures themselves were far greater than for the surrounding ones, suggesting that an extension of urbani- zation has not been much beyond the boundary of the central prefecture and decentralization has not as yet taken place to the same extent as in the case of Tokyo. 3/ Institute of Population Problems, Ministry of Health and Welfare, Todofuken Betsu Jinko Idoritsu, Showa 29-39-nen (Migration Rates efectures: , Institute of Population Problems Lesearch Series, No. 168, February 1966, p. 16. 4/ Ibid., pp. 28-41. 586 IV. Megalopolis on the Pacific Seaboard 17. In conclusion, the main current of internal migration and population redistribution has apparently been moving into the "Tokaido liezalopolis" which is a coalescence of the Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya metropolitan areas. The popu- lation included in this Megalopolis, a belt-shaped population agglomeration on the Pacific Seaboard, represented 48 percent of the total population of Japan jn 1965, in a striking contrast to its 19 percent share of the total area.2 There are seven cities in Japan each having a population of more than a million, and six of the seven are located within the Tokaido Megalopolis. 18. The degree of concentration in the megalopolis is of even greater magnitude if we include economic activities and social and cultural influences. With reference to wholesale and retail activities, the Megalopolis accounts for 73 percent of the total sales in Japan. Likewise, it produces 71 per- cent of the total manufacturing output, operates 80 percent of the total mone / deposits in banks and attracts 90 percent of labour force migration in Japan.— Furthermore, according to estimates of Frofessors Itoh and Sakamoto, about 90 percent of the best educated and hig talented manpower in Japan are concentrated in this megalopolitan belt.!/ Japan's urbanization has culminated in the formation of "megalopolis" on the Pacific Seaboard which will become the alpha and omega for her technological, economic and social development in the future. 5/ The delimitation of the -'Tokaido liegalopolis'" has rather arbitrarily been made to include the following 14 prefectures: Tokyo, Chiba, Saitama, Kanagawa, Shizuoka, aichi, Osaka, Hyogo, Gifu, Mie, Shiga, Kyoto, Nara and Wakayama, 6/ Zenichi Itoh and Jiro Sakamoto, Toshika Jidai no Nihon Keizai (Japan's Economy in the Age of Urbanization), hodansha, Tokyo (1967), pp. 107. 7/ Ibid., p. 41. 587 Table 1, Percentage of Population Increase and Percentage Share of Total Population Increase for Cities, Towns and Villages in Japan by Locality-size Group: 1955-1960 and 1960-1965. Percentages population Percentage share of increase, 5-year periods total population increase Locality-size group LT — a (number of inhabitants) 1955-1960 1960-1965 1955-1960 1960-1965 Al1 Japan 4.6 5.2 100.0 100,0 1,000,000 and over 17.5 9.1 60.4 31.7 500,000 - 999,999 26.5 24.6 9.2 13.8 300,000 - 499,999 13.3 13.6 12.2 14.0 200,000 - 299,999 8.1 14.8 9.4 17.0 100,000 - 199,999 9.5 16.8 20.9 32.4 50,000 - 99,999 4.6 8.4 11.5 18.3 30,000 - 49,999 1.6 2.3 4.8 4.8 20,000 - 29,999 1.7 -0.8 2.9 -1.1 10,000 - 19,999 -3.1 —Lo2 -12.6 12.5 5,000 - 9,999 ho 7 8.3 -10.1 -16.2 under 5,000 5.6 23.4 -2.8 0.4 Source: Bureau of Statistics, Office of the Prime Minister, 1960 and 1965 Census Reports. Table 2. Population of Metropolitan Areas, Percentage Share of Total Population, Percentage Population Increase, and llatio of Fopulation Increase in Metropolitan Areas to Total lopulation Increase: 5-Year Intervals, 1950-1965. Fercentage population Ratio of metropolitan Metropolitan Percentage share area within a Fopulation in 500's of total population increase, 5-year periods increase to total 50-kilometre - population increase radius from the centre 1965 1960 1955 1965 1960 1955 1960- 1955- 1950- 1960. 1955- 1950- 1965 1960 1955 1965 1960 1955 Tokyo 18,855 15,745 13,280 19.2 16.9 14.9 19.8 18.6 21.7 64.1 59.5 38.9 Osaka 11,692 9,994 8,766 11.9 10.7 9.8 17.0 14.0 15.5 35.0 29.6 19.4 Nagoya 6,096 5,397 4,868 6.2 5.8 5.5 12.9 10.9 8.7 14.4 12.8 6.4 3 metropolitan 36,644 31,137 26,914 37.3 33.3 3C.1 17.7 15.7 17.1 113.4 101.9 64.7 otal +11 Japan 98,275 93,419 89,276 100.0 100.0 190.0 5.2 4.6 7.3 100.0 100,0 100,0 Source: Japan Bureau of Statistics, Wagakuni no Jinko (The Fopulation of Japan,) Tokyo, 1967. ë Table 3. 589 Percentage Share and Average Density of Population in 5 Concentric Zones Within the Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya Metropolitan Areas: 1965. Percentage share Average population density per Population Concentric zones of population in square kilometre (000) within à 50. met litan area kilometre radius Topo re from the centre Tokyo Osaka Nagoya Tokyo Osaka Nagoya Tokyo Osaka Nagoya zone 1. 0-10 kilo 24.3 38.1 32.5 20,236 13,386 5,600 4,580 14,455 1,983 zone 2. 10-20 35.1 19.9 18.5 7,964 2,859 1,200 6,619 2,330 1,129 zone 3. 20-30 15.6 12.1 14.6 2,571 1,503 683 2,937 1,413 889 zone 4. 30-40 14.1 17.5 25.4 1,336 888 748 2,660 2,047 1,551 zone 5. 40-50 10.9 12.4 8.9 755 567 210 2,061 1,448 543 Total: O -50 100.0 100.0 100.0 2,726 1,683 849 18,856 11,692 6,096 Source: Japan Bureau of Statistics, i.agakuni no Jinko, p. 11. Table 4. Percentage Population Increase by 5 Concentric Zones Within the Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya Metro. 1955-1960 and 1960-1965. politan Áreas: Concentric zone Percentage population increase, 5-year periods Population increase, within a 50. 1960-1965 kilometre radius Tokyo Osaka Nagoya (000) from the centre 1960- 1955- 1960- 1955. 1960. 1955- 1965 1960 1965 1960 1965 1960 Tokyo Osaka Nagoya zone 1. 0-10 kilo Led 13.4 12.3 20.7 13.8 19.1 -63 1489 240 zone 2, 10-20 25.3 29.8 41.3 19.5 24.3 12.4 1,337 681 220 zone 3. 20-30 40.4 22.7 20.7 13.3 14.0 7.8 846 243 109 zone 4. 30-40 36.9 15.4 14.0 7.8 8.6 7.4 717 252 123 zone 5. 40-50 15.4 3.3 2.4 0.8 1.0 1.0 275 35 5 Total: 0.50 19.8 18.6 17.0 14.0 12.9 10.9 3,111 1,698 698 Source: Japan Bureau of Statistics, wagakuni no Jinko, p. 11. 590 Table 5. Metropolitan Population Increase Due to Natural Increase and Net Indfigration for the Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya Metropolitan Areas: 1960-1965. Population increase (000) Proportion of the total increase Metropolitan natural in- natural net in- area Total increase migration Total increase migration Tokyo! 3,153 1,195 1,958 100.0 37.9 62.1 Osaka? 1,665 ne 948 100.0 43.1 56.9 Nagoya! 681, 140 21,4, 100.0 6403 35.7 3 Metropolitan total 5,502 2,352 3,150 100.0 42.7 27.3 1/ Includes Tokyo Metropolitan Frefecture and Saitama, Chiba and Kanagawa Prefectures. 2/ Includes Osaka, Kyoto and Hyogo Prefectures. 3/ Includes Aichi, Gifu and Mie Prefectures. Source: Japan Bureau of Statistics, Wagakuni no Jinko, p. 13. 591 INTERNAL MIGRATION IN INDONESIA by HENK J, HEEREN Reader in Demography, Institute of Sociology, Utrecht University Inter-island migration has of old been a wellknown phenome - non in Indonesia. Several ethnic groups have spread all over the Archipelago. Organised migration on a substantial scale, however, is a comparatively recent phenomenon. In the beginning of this century the government of the then Netherlands Indies adopted a policy of stimulating migration of Javanese to South Sumatra. This policy aimed at alleviating the population press- ure in the island of Java, which was considered to be overpop- ulated at the time. This type of inter-island migration is known in Indonesia by the name of transmigration, a somewhat ambiguous term as it denotes metempsychosis to English-speaking peoples. This paper will treat some of the demographic and sociological aspects of transmigration, both before and after World War II. 1. Internal migration in the pre-war period. Pre-war internal migration in Indonesia developed certain characteristics which have remained valid in the post-war period as well. The main principle of pre-war migration was to send over as many people as possible at as little cost as possible. This was accomplished by sending them in the weeks shortly before the harvest, when there was a scarcity of labor. The immigrants could then find work easily enough and earn a sufficient quantity of rice to carry them through the difficult first months. During that time they were accomodated with settlers sent out earlier. In this way government costs were reduced to the clearing and opening up of land and the con- struction of roads and irrigation works. The costs of the vorage were borne by the settlers themselves. This system put a heavy burden on the migrants during the first year, and this was one of the reasons why compulsory forms of recruiting had sometimes to be adopted. This again led to a neglect of the principles of selection. Village heads saw in transmigration an easy way to get rid of their unwanted villagers, such as sick and old people. This system succeeded in opening up large areas of forest land in South Sumatra and elsewhere. The number of migrants 592 involved can be read from Table 1. The migratory movement reached its peak in 1940 with a total of about 53.000 migrants. This figure should be compared to the pre-war population in- crease of Java, which was about 720.000 a year. Before the war, the Central Bureau of Statistics in Djakarta estimated the growth of the Javanese population at 1,5 % annually, which would imply a figure of 116 million inhabitants in 2000. An annual transmigration of 120.000 families, consisting of father, mother and one child, with the age of the parents between 15 and 24, would result in a population of Java of 57 million inhabitants only in 2000. However, an annual trans- migration of 360.000 people was considered completely im- possible at the time. The pre-war system had other shortcomings as well. The pieces of land handed out to individual settlers were too small, so that in one generation the same shortage of land became apparent which had caused the migrants to leave Java. Moreover, the Javanese settlers were usually located in empty areas, such as forest reserves. In this way the tricky problem of the land rights of the autochtonous population was avoided. The result was that the immigrants had almost no contacts with the autochtonous Sumatran population. The Nationalist movement in particular condemned this policy, because it tended to create islands of Javanese in a Sumatran environment. 2. Internal migration in the post-war period. After the war and Indonesian independence, several grandiose plans for large-scale internal migration were elaborated. In 1952, the then head of the Transmigration Service, Tambunan, developed a plan which aimed at decreasing the Javanese popula- tion from 54 million inhabitants in 1952 to 31 million in 1987. The number of migrants would have to increase from over five million in the first five-year period to 9 million in the sixth period. In the timespan of 35 years a total of over 48 million people would have to leave Java, which means that there would then be more Javanese outside the island than inside. Somewhat more realistic was the plan of the Transmigration Service for the five-year period 1956-1960, which aimed at a transfer of two million people in five years, or 400.000 annually. The eight-year plan elaborated by Muhammad Yamin covered the period 1961-1968 and aimed at a transmigration of 250.000 families in the eight-year period. This would mean a number of 125.000 people annually, The Transmigration Service, in a plan covering the same period, aimed at a transfer of 390.000 families or 1.560.000 in eight years. a In January, 1965 a new transmigration movement was inaugur- ated by President Soekarno. Soekarno wanted nothing less than a transfer of the total annual increase of Java's population, estimated at 1,5 million people. This would imply a migration 593 of about 5000 people a day and the opening-up of 2000 ha of land each day. The Suharto cabinet in July 1966 stated an annual migration objective of two million people a year. All these plans and projections have one thing in common: they do not take the real development of transmigration into account. Table 2 shows the real figures for transmigration to the Outer Islands and to South Sumatra in the period 1950-1965, Peak year until now has been the year 1959 with about 46.000 migrants, somewhat lower than in the pre-war period. This figure should be increased with an unknown number os so-called spontaneous migrants, who are not registered and who will be treated below. Yet, even taking the spontaneous migrants into account, the actual number of migrants falls far short of even the lowest targets. One gets the impression that the more the economic situation deteriorated, the higher the targets for transmigration. What were the reasons that post-war migration has been less extensive than was hoped for by the authorities ? The guiding lines of policy in the post-war period differed from those in the pre-war period in several respects. As the number of prospective migrants exceeded all expectations, the principle of forced recruiting could be abandoned. Moreover, government support of migrants was extended to include all costs, including food and other necessities. Furthermore, the amount of land handed out to individual settlers was doubled. This was done to facilitate the cultivation of market crops, 223 to combat the subsistence farming pattern prevalent in ava. A new phenomenon was the emergence of the so-called spontan- eous migrants. These were people who had sold their belongings in Java and travelled to South Sumatra on their own initiative. They usually cleared parts of the forest reserve, or else illegally occupied land set aside for official migrants. Next to the spontaneous migrants there arose the category of local migrants. These were second-generation settlers, children of pre-war migrants who were unable to obtain land of their own in the old settlements. Finally, there were the official migrants, whose voyage and settlement were organised by the official Transmigration Service. In general they were settled in areas already prepared or opened-up before the war. This meant that the so-called enclave-policy of separated Javanese and Sumatran settlements was continued. The autochtonous pop- ulation and the Javanese immigrants lived in virtual segregat- ion, intermarriages seldomly occurred. There certainly exists a propensity to emigrate in the over- crowded rural areas of Central and East Java. The problem there- fore is not a lack of interest in migration, but the difficulty of organizing large-scale migration. In particular, the con- struction of roads and irrigation works cannot keep pace with the arrival of new settlers. Without irrigation, the harvests were disappointing, thus encouraging settlers to open new lands 594 and turning back to a system of shifting cultivation. It would seen, therefore, that only large-scale mechanized forest clear- ing and construction of roads and irrigation works could acce- lerate the settling of Javanese immigrants in Sumatra. Even then, however, the numbers involved would be insignificant sompared to Java's annual population increase. This leads us to the question of the effects of internal migration on the future population of Indonesia. 3. Internal migration and future population. In a study which appeared in 1958 the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations has treated internal nigratbon in Indonesia at some length. (1) Two aspects of the problem were discussed: the age structure of the migrants and the consequences for the receiving area. Two migration models were developed: the pioneer settlement, consisting of the younger age groups under 35 years, with or without further contingents of new migrants. The second was based on an annual number of either 20.000 or 40.000 migrating families. With a migration of 20.000 families, a constant birth rate of 42,8 0/00 and a constant mortality, the population of Java would increase to 78,2 million in 1975, that of Sumatra to 23,8 million. The U.N.report was unable to test these assumptions with real figures, because it was thought that there were no data available on the age structure of the migrants. However, the Transmigration Service has published the age structure of the migrants in four categories. These figures have been taken as a starting point for the calculations made by the German demo- crapher Hilde Wander. (2) She tried to establish the consequen- ces for Java of an annual transmigration of 100,000 persons over a 25-year period. With stable birth and declining death rates, Java's population increase would be 3,7 million or 7,2 % smaller, whereas the growth rates for Sumatra and Borneo would increase to 2,8 % annually. A combination of transmigration 2nd declining birth rates would have a more favourable effect. If the New Reproduction Rate would decline in 25 years from 2,55 to 2,00, an annual transmigration of 100.000 people would nean a difference of 9,9 million people or 19,3 % of Java's population growth. The Indonesian economist Widjojo Nitisastro (3) has several times put forward estimates as to the future population of Java. He assumed two figures for annual transmigration: 200,000 and 1 million persons, The birth rate for Java was estimated at 46,4 0/00 in 1960, with a decline setting in in 1965 to 35 0/00 in the period 1980-1990. This must be considered a rather conservative decline. When we confine ourselves to the 200.000 transmigration assumption, the figures for Java would reach 84,7 million in 1975 and 122,6 million in 1990. The Outer ; Provinces would reach 51,2 million in 1975 and 80,4 million in 1990. 595 4. Conclusion. It is evident that the migration of Javanese to the Outer Islands of Indonesia has not been able to influence the growth of the Javanese population substantially. In the pre-war period, the peak year showed a migration of about 7 percent of Java's annual population increase. In the post-war period this was never more than about % percent. The solution to the Javanese population problem should therefore not be sought in encourag- ing transmigration, but in the adoption of family planning programmes, The emphasis on internal migration has until re- cently only served to divert the interest from the only real approach to the population problem. This does not mean that transmigration has been unimportant. On the contrary, trans- migration has succeeded in opening-up large areas of virgin forests in South Sumatra. As long as there are empty lands in the Outer Islands, these form a challenge that should not go unanswered. The targets should then be set accordingly: not the quantitative number of migrants, but the opening-up and settling of new lands should become the goals of transmigration policy. : Notes. (1) The Fopulation of South-East Asia (including Ceylon and China: Taiwan), 1950-1980. United Nations Population Studies, 30, 55-91, New York (1958) (2) Hilde Wander: Die Beziehungen zwischen Bevolkerungs- und Wirtschaftsentwicklung, dargestellt am Beispiel Indonesiens. Kieler Studien, 70, 176, Tubingen (1965) (3) Widjojo Nitisastro: Projeksi Penduduk untuk Tshun 1975-1990. (Population Projections for the years 1975-1990). Workshop Masalah Penduduk, Djakarta, 6 (1964), (mimeo) 596 Table 1. Total number of Javanese migrants to the Outer Islands and to South Sumatra, 1925-1941. Year Total S.Sumatra 1933 751 751 1934 2.756 2.756 1935 14.710 14.710 1936 13.152 13.152 2957 19.639 19.639 1938 32.259 25.452 1939 45.339 34,842 1940 52.885 43.003 1941 41.095 ? Table 2. Total number of Javanese migrants to the Outer Islands and to South Sumatra, 1950-1965. Year Total S.Sumatra 1950 1951 2.877 2.376 1952 17.605 16.585 1953 40.009 32.090 1954 29.638 23.559 1955 21.389 16.363 1956 24.350 20.855 1957 22.201 14.796 1958 20.603 19.391 1959 46.096 43,279 1960 22.078 18.716 1961 19.609 10.425 1962 21.983 12.741 1963 11.269 7.840 1964 ) 15.222 9.824 1965 2 24.390 22.273 2) Until June 10, 1965. Source: For the years 1951-1955: Transmicrasi 1951-1255, Djakarta (1956). For the years 1956-1960 the official Annual Reports (Laporan Tahunan) of the Transmigration Service, For later years unpublished figures of this service, kindly presented to the author in July, 1965. 597 MIGRATION STREAMS IN INDIA by Ashish Bose Institute of Economic Growth, Delhi 1. We propose to present an over-all picture of internal migration in India, in terms of the origin, direction, distance and volume of the migration streams, based on an analysis of the 1961 Census data on migration.! Space does not permit us to go into the limitations of the data and other methodological issues.? It has also not been possible for us, at this stage, to undertake a rigorous analysis of the massive data as the all India Migration Tables were published only recently.’ our object in this paper is to highlight some aspects of internal migration in India about which we were completely in the dark in the past on account of the non- availability of data. “ome of the issues raised here need detailed investigation. In fact, the data thrown up by the 1961 Census present a challenge and an oppor- tunity to migration analysts to set at rest a number of speculative and facile generalizations on the process of urbanization in India. The 1961 Census Data 2. Before we pass on to the tables we shall make a few brief observations on the scope of the 1961 Census data. is in earlier censuses, the migration data in the 1961 Census are based onplace of birth data and the limitations of migration analysis on place of birth data are well-known. However, there are at least four significant areas of improvement in this census: (i) data on the rural/urban breakdown of the place of birth were obtained and cross-classified by the rural / urban breakdown of the place of enumeration, (ii) data on duration of residence of migrants were collected which throw light on the trend of migration, unlike in earlier censuses which presented data on life-time migration only; (iii) this 1. All tables presented here are computed from Census of India 1961, Vol.I, Part II-C(iii) India: Migration Tables, Delhi (1966). 2, For these details, see Ashish Bose, An Appraisal of Data on Internal iligra~ tion and Urbanization in India, Paper for ECiFE Expert Working Group on Problems of Internal Migration and Urbanization, Bangkok, 1967. 3. The detailed picture will be presented in our forthcoming study on Pattern of Internal Migration in India, 1951-61, 598 census recorded movements from the place of birth at the individual village, town end city level so that it is possible to study short distance migration, even from one village to another within any district; and (iv) separate tables have been prepared for migrants, especially migrants to cities with population of 100,000 and over and it is possible to get a fairly comprehensive picture of the character- istics of migrants. The volume of internal migration 3. It is generally accepted that the volume of internal migration in India is very small and that it has been always so, as will bb seen in Table 1. Table 1: Internal migration in India Census year Per cent of persons enumerated in a State or province different from the one in which they were born to total population Source: Figures for 1891 to 1931 are taken from Kingsley Davis, The Population of India and Pakistan, p.108. The figures for 1951 and 1961 are computed by us from Census of India 1951, Vol.I, Part IIvA and Census of India 1961, Vol.I, Part II-C (iii). 3a. But interestingly enough, if we consider persons born outside the place of enumeration as migrants, we get a very different picture of migration. Considered this way, the per cent of migrants to total population in 1961 is 30.7 and not 3.3. At this stage, we do not propose to enter into any controversy as to who is a migrant. The fact remains that the 1961 Census reveals that mobility in India is quite considerable: about oneethird of the total population was enumerated outside the place of birth. Marriage migration of females 4. To understand this phenomenon, it is necessary to consider the sex breakdown of migrants. The predominant female migration in India is what may be called "marriage migration" (on account of village exogamy in several parts of India) and 599 "agsociational migration" (accompanying their migrant husbands), and economic causes are relatively unimportant. In India even in the big cities, the female workers constitute only a small proportion of the total female migrants. Table 2: Per cent of female migrant workers to total female migrants in million-plus cities, 1961 Per cent Greater Bombay 10.9 Calcutta 9.7 Delhi 5.7 Madras 8.5 Ahmedabad 7.0 Eyderabad 16.8 Bangalore 13.4 Kanpur 4.2 Migration and distance 5. On the basis of 1961 data, it is possible to isolate three types of migration which are roughly indicative of the relationship between distance and migration: a 1) Short distance migration: Persons born outside the place of enumeration but within the district of enumeration(intra-district migration); (ii) Medium distance migration: Persons born outside the district but within the State of enumeration (inter-district or intra-state migration); and (iii) Long distance migration: Persons born in States of India beyond the state of enumeration (inter-state migration). 5a In a detailed analysis one must, however, consider the geographical location of the districts. The rough picture of relative share of each of these categories is given in Table 3. Table 3; Per cent of total migrants by migration type Migration type Total Male Female 1. short distance 67.8 54.4 73.8 2. Medium distance 21,4 26.8 19.0 3. Long distance 10.8 18.8 7.2 5b. Thus, a little over half of the male migration and about three fourths of the female migration is short-distance migration. Rural /Urban flows 6. On the basis of the cross-classification of data on migration by place of birth and place of residence and considering the rural/urban breakdown we can isolate the following four migration streams: (i) rural to rural; (ii) rural to urban; (iii) urban to urban; and (iv) urban to rural. 6a. There is also a small category of persons whose place of birth could not be classified but we have ignored this category in our calculations. 6b. It may be noted that in all our computations we have excluded migrants from abroad as this study concerns internal migration only. But it must be remembered that while in the country as a whole, immigration from abroad is not important, this is not true for individual cities where migration from Pakistan is quite considerable on account of the partition of India in 1947. There is also the tricky problem of persons who were born in pre-partitioned India in areas which now constitute Pakistan. These persons are immigrants only in a technical sense. Table 4 gives the relative share of each of these four migration streams. Table 4s Per cent of total migrants by migration” type —————————— ————— — — ——— —————— —— ————— — — —— — —— — Migration stream Total Male Female 1. Rural-rural 73.7 56.7 81.3 2. Rural -urban 14.6 25.7 9.7 3. Urban-urban 8.1 13.0 5.8 4. Urban-rural 3.6 4.6 3.2 TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 6c. Interestingly enough, the predominant form of migration in India is rural to rural female migration and even in the case of males, rural to rural migration accounts for well over half the total migration. Twelve types of migration streams Te If we consider distance and rural/urban flows simultaneously, we get twelve types of migration streams. Table 5 presents the detailed data for each of these streams. It will be seen that in the case of males, rural to rural migration acc- ounts for the largest number of migrants in regard to short and medium distance migration and only in the case of long distance migration, rural to urban migration 601 Table 5: Life-time migration streams in India Type of migration Population in Per cent distribution stream thousands — 2222" — 2220 0 0 a — —— —— I, Short distance (within the district) A Rural to rural 77,521 16,637 60,284 57,67 40,15 65,49 B Rural to urban 8,221 3,740 4,481 6,12 9,02 4,82 C Urban to urban 2,763 1,229 1,534 2,06 2,97 1,65 D Urban to rural 2,652 953 1,699 1,97 2,30 1,82 Sub-total 91,157 22,559 68,598 67,82 54,44 73,78 II. Medium distance (within the state) E Rural to rural 16,243 4,676 11,567 12,09 11,28 12,45 F Rural to urban 6,577 3,847 2,930 4,89 8,80 3,15 G Urban to urban 4,444 2,162 2,282 3,21 5.22 2,45 H Urban to rural 1,511 615 896 1,12 1,48 0,96 Sub-total 28,775 11,100 17,675 21,41 26,78 19,01 III. Long distance (between states) I Rural to rural 5,336 2,200 3,136 3,97 5,21 3,38 J — Rural to urban 4,882 3,246 1,636 3,63 7,84 1,76 K Urban to urban 3,612 2,018 1,594 2,69 4,27 1,71 L Urban to rural 652 317 __ 335 __ 0,48 0,76 0,36 Sub-total 14,482 7,781 6,701 10,77 18,78 7.21 = Grand Total 134,414 41,440 92,974 100,00 100,00 100,00 - — —]o— = a 22 22 2 2 22202000 080 0 20 20 00 0 0 —]— 602 becomes the most prominent form of migration. But this is not true in the case of female migration. Regardless of distance, rural-to-rural migration is the most important type. Annual migration 8. So far we have discussed only life-time migration. The 1961 Census coll- ected data on duration of residence of migrants. ide shall consider heremigrants with duration of residence "less than one year" as a measure of annual migration. The data are presented in Table 6. Ba. What strikes one at once is the large volume of yearly migration, namely, 13.3 million revealed by Table 6. There are also interesting differences in the pattern of yearly migration and life-time migration as revealed by a comparison of Tables 5 and 6. In the case of male migrants, even for long distance migration, rural to rural migration is more important than rural to urban migration. But as we have already noted, this is not true of life-time migrants. In other words, there are no differentials in regard to sex in the pattern of yearly migration in respect of the numerical supremacy of the rural-to-rural migration stream. Qut-migration rate 9. Based on the duration of residence data we have computed the annual 'out- migration rates' (Table 7). These rates have their own limitations, especially rural to rural out-migration rate which is really redistribution and not out- migration if rural areas are taken as a whole Nevertheless, these rates do bring out the pattern of migration, whether these are called out-migration rates or redistribution rates. Table 6: Annual (1960-61) migration streams in India 603 Population in thousands a ——————————— Total _ Male Female Total _ Male _Female I Short distance (within the district) A Rural to rural 5,734 2,216 3,518 43,18 34,49 51,32 B Rural to urban 945 536 409 7.12 8,34 5,97 C Urban to urban 380 200 180 2,86 3.11 2,63 D Urban to rural 374 183 191 2,82 2,85 2,79 Sub-total 7,433 3,135 4,298 55,98 48,79 62,71 II Medium distance (within the state) A Rural to rural 2,058 976 1,080 15,50 15,22 15,76 B Rural to urban 841 513 328 6,33 7.28 4,79 C Urban to urban 598 320 278 4,50 4,98 4,06 D Urban to rural 274 146 128 2,06 2,27 1,87 Sub-total 3,771 1,957 1,814 28,39 30,45 26,48 ITI Long distance (between states) A Rural to rural 819 519 300 6.16 8,08 4,38 B Rural to urban 657 458 199 4,25 7.13 2.90 C Urban to urban 459 272 187 3,46 4,23 2.73 D Urban to rural 141 84 57 1,06 1,32 0.80 Sub-total 2,076 1,333 743 15,63 20,76 10,81 Grand Total 13,280 6,425 6,855 100,00 100,00 100,C0 604 Table 7: Annual (for 1960-61 only) migration rate (migrants per 1000 population) — = — ———————————————————— ————————————————— — —— — — ———— ——————— — es — ————— ————— ———————— ——— —— — Per 1,000 of total rural population Rural to rural 23.9 20.3 27.7 Rural to urban 6.8 8.2 5.3 per 1,000 of total urban population Urban to urban 18.2 18.5 17.8 Urban to rural 10.0 9.7 10.4 PED Interestingly enough the urban to rural out-migration rates are higher than rural to urban out-migration rates (of course, in absolute terms the rural to urban migrants are many more than urban to rural migrants). It may also be obser ved that there are no significant differences between the male and female out- migration rates in the urban areas while in the case of rural areas, the female migration rates are higher for rural to rural migration. Turnover migration 10. Having examined the data for migration with respect to other durations of residence, namely, 1-5 years, 6-10 years and so on, we are led to the conclusion that the yearly migration figures are not in tune with the life-time migration figures or the general trend of migration in the 1951-61 decade. The 1960-61 figures seem to be on the high side. The effect of mortality on the migrants during this decade cannot bp itself explain the large yearly flow of migrants. It is also possible that mobility has greatly increased in recent years and this has led to the increased tempo of migration. But the evidence on decade migration (1951-61) does not support this thesis. 11. In Table 6 it will be seen that rural-urban migration during 1960-61 was of the order of 2.44 million. On the assumption that this holds good for the whole decade, 1951-61, one would get an estimate of 24.4 million rural to urban mig- rants but the facts are that the total increase in India's urban population during 1951-61 (even allowing for definitional changes) was less than 20 million. Zacha- riah estimates from census data that rural-urban migration during this decade was only 5.2 million.* Thus we are led to theconclusion that the figures do suggest that there is a large "turnover migration" in India. In other words, many people 4 K.C. Zachariah, Population Redistribution in Indía, Paper for All-India Seminar on Population, Institute of Economic Growth, Delhi, 1964. 605 move from one area to another without beinz able to settle down. This mobility nead not necessarily be voluntary. It is possible that persons from rural areas are "pushed" to the urban areas but what is more significant is that, probably many of them are pushed back from the urban areas or pushed out to other urban areas. Elsewhere, we have suggested that under conditions of rapid population growth "push" is not confined to rural areas only - it operates everywhere. There is the positive side also. “as a result of development plans and the exten- sion of irrigation facilities, there has been some migration from rural to rural areas on account of new employment opportunities. 12. But it would be difficult to explain the high figure for 1960-61 in terms of increased employment opportunities only. Our hunch is that the yearly figure would be high for any year if data ere tabulated on a yearly basis and the yearly migration rate would tend to be the gross migration rate. The chances of netting tewporary migrents ( in spite of the usual place of residence concept in the census) in the yearly figure ere much more than in the average yearly figure worked out on the basis of aggregate data for duration of residence for 5 years. In Table 6 we give the ratio of migrants during 1960-61 to the average annual micrants during 1955-60 (based on data for duration of residence: 1-5 years). Table 8: Indirect evidence of turnover migration in India Migration streams Ratio of migrants in one year (1960-61) to the averaze annual number of migrants in a five-year period (1955-60) , Total itele Female rural to rural 2.1 2.8 1.6 Rural to urban 2,2 2.3 2.0 Urban to urban 2.1 2.2 2.0 Urban to rural 2.8 3.2 2.4 13. It may be argued, however, that the average figure for the five yearly period may not reflect reality. It is possible that there is an accelerating tempo of migration from 1955-60 culminating in the high figure for 1960-61, This needs investigation. Our view is that the economic evidence does not give us a sure basis for such a hypothesis. In other words, it is difficult to believe that the high figure for migration in 1960-61 was the result of increa- sed economic activity. Our hypothesis is that increasing mobility and turnover migration are manifestations of slow economic development in the face of rapid populetion growth. Inasmuch as the predominant form of female migration is "marriage migration", one would expect a lower rate of turnover migration among females and this is corroborated by Table 8 which shows that the female turnover migration ratio was 1.9 compared to 2.6 for males. «hereas marrigge migration has built-in stability - it is ¿enerally "once-for-all" migration or "associa- tional misration " - econonic migration (whether of males or females) nas 606 inbuilt instability depending on the vagaries of the employment warket. luch of this turnover migration must be of the "try your luck" category. 14. Finally, there is no doubt at all that in India, geographical mobility has greatly increased as a result of improved transport and communications, extension of education and new employment opportunities created by our deve- lopment plans, This must have increased the tempo and volume of internal migr- ation. But there is the darker side of the story also. As a result of the increasing pressure of population both in rural and in urban areas, there must be in operation a strong "push" factor, again both in rural and in urban areas, resulting in increased migration which in the absence of adequate employment opvortunities must be bringing about further migration culminating in a high rate of turnover migration. However, it is not possible to produce direct evi- dence on this from census data. 15. The evidence put forward by us, however, strongly indicates that the analysis of migration and urbanization will assume a larger dimension and an increased urgency if yearly migration figures are considered instead of decade and life time migration figures. This highlights the need for annual sample surveys on internal migration. 16. Internal migration in India as a proportion of the total population gives a static picture which is very different from reality. The fact that the 1961 Census recorded over 134 million persons who had moved out of their place of birth and of these over 13 million persons were recorded as having arrived in the place of enumeration in less than one year, throws new light on the magni- tude of internal migration in India which has so far been treated as relatively unimportant, both statistically and otherwise. 607 INTERNAL MIGRATION AND URBANIZATION IN INDIA,1961 by Asok Mitra Registrar General India I. GENERAL FEATURES 1. Internal migration statistics in the 1961 Census of India conceal a small volume of fictitious or notional migration of nearly a million persons arising out of political reorganization of States since 1951. Out of a total population of 439 million in 1961, as many as 294 million remained stationary at their places of birth. Compared to this large stationary population, a little more than gj million migrated from their places of birth to other places within the district of enumeration, the bulk of which was for demographic reasons. Abou t 10. 22 million of Indias total rural population migrated from their places of birth to States beyond their State of birth, of whom as many as 5.34 million went to rural areas of other States. The urban pull was weak, the total figure being 4.38 million or less than half of a total of 10.22 million.® Of the 4.26 million persons born in urban areas, who nad migrated to other States in 19681,’ 3.81 million had gone to urban areas of these States, but as many as 0.6s million returned to rural areas. 2. The States which gained by net migration in 1981 were Assan, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Mysore, Punjab, West Bengal and Delhi. These States attracted migrants both to their rural and urban areas. Migrants to rural areas were attracted mainly by possibilities of colo- uization on new land reclaimed from forest or swamp or by irrigation and power projects. Striking cases are the Brahamputra Valley in Assam, the Mahan adi basin in Madhya Pradesh, the Koyna project in Maharashtra, tue irrigation projects in the naidan areas of Mysore, the Bhakra chain of irrigation projects in Punjab and the DVC, Mayurakshi and Jaldhaka projects in West Bengal. Those which lost were Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Gujarat, Jammu gx Kasaomir, Kerala, Madras, Orissa, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh. But eveu in these States there were large transfers of popul a tion within the State from areas poorly served by irrigation and indus- try to new and developing areas. It is ‘also significant that areas whicu have gained by migration are rapidly improving both in industry and agriculture. Toe net losing States pushed out population mainly from rural areas, obviously on account of pressure on the soil, which 608 were being absorbed ia plantations, new agricultural colonies of the net gaining States.” This broad pattern of pull accelerated substan- tially in the decade 1951-81 in the net gaining States but the decadal net in-migration was in each case more than half of all-time migration. The picture becomes interesting when shorter durations of in-and out- migrations are considered, which indicate that female migration improves over time and is generally at its worst for shorter durations, parti- cularly less than y year and less than 5 years. Brief comment will be made on five types of migration streams observed in 1961. 3. A few preliminary observations will be pertinent. All the districts of India were divided into four levels of development with the help of 35 statistical indicators. This grading showed that the density of cultivators and agricultural labourers per 100 acres of net sown area was much less in the two top levels tuan in the two bottom ones. Secondly, interstate rural in-migration of cultivators and agri- cultural labourers was about the highest in districts of the second and third levels of development. Thirdly, districts in the lower levels of development, although they suffered from a high agricultural density already, were still relatively more jostled by cultivators and agricul- tural labourers from outside the State. Overcrowding at intermediate levels of development with relatively low investment seems to attract more overcrowding. Fourthly, a very positive association was observed between level of development of a district and its intra-State and interstate migration picture. As the level of development goes up, the districts in the two top levels of development attract more of rur al and urban migrants not only from within the State but sometimes even more from outside. The levels of urban to urban turn-round and step- migration in most cases are high as well as the rural-urban pulls. These forces operate at very low and even negligible levels in the dist- ricts of the two bottom levels of development. In fact, they do not seem to exert much pull at all. Social and cultural aspects, parti- cularly language, work as limiting factors. 4. Bihar, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Mysore, Punjab, West Bengal and Delhi are substantial importers of labour for short- term operations for less than one year, revealing their dependence on imported labour for agricultural and allied operations. The most favour- ed period of rural turnover migration for males is up to 5 years, which accounts for more than sp per cent of such migration in most States. The preponderance of unaccompanied males for durations less than 5 years even in rural to rural migration creates social and economic problems of rural housing, consumption and personal services, single households, unattached hired labour, short-term unsecured tenancy, sharecropping and other problems of agricultural iaputs. 2. Urban to fural Reverse Migration 5. The most significant feature of this reverse migration is that in most cases the duration 1-5 years claims higher numbers, both abso- 609 lutely and proportionately than durations of less than one year. Al - though much of this reverse migration is demographic, it plays a vital role in Myrdal’ s spread effect, by taking from urban to rural areas a large number of women by marriage and, consequently, ae substantial volume of socially strategic urban outlook along with skill, entre- preneurial and intellectual activity. Much of it may be caused by shortage of urban housing and lack of adequate employment opportuni- ties in urban areas which deprives the latter of the invested human resources. 3. Rural to Urban Migration or Rural. Push 6. This is usually believed to be the classic stream that feeds urban growth, the enduring assumption being that overcrowding in agri- culture and the consequent lack of sustenance in rural areas pu- shes populations ogt on to urban areas to which they are inexorably pulled by an ever increasing demand in industry, trade, banking, commu- nication and the public and private services. In other words, a mount- ing surplus in the rural areas steadily pushes out people to feed the increasing demand for fresh hands in the urban areas. The net inter- state all-time rural to urban or push migration for all-India in 1961 was as low as 4.82 million, although in-and out-figures for each State are often very large. It is significant that the largest proportion of migrants, - bo th in-and out, for each State was for 1-5 years, al though the proportion of those who returned under | year is about the high- est for the five types of migration discussed in this paper. It is also significant that except for three States, the proportion of mig- rants having lived more than 10 years in the new State has been gene- rally more than 30 per cent, the bulk being between 30 and 45 per cent. A. Urban to Urban Migration or Urban Tumover 7. This phenomenon has assumed significant proportions in India. It is significant that the proportion of urban to urban male inmigrants for durations of less than y year to all male inmigrants is always lower in heavy urban turnover States than that among outmigrants from those States. This proportion is always greater in the medium and low urban turnover States except for Kerala, Madras and Assam. It is also significant that these proportions are highest in the residence periods of 1-5 years and, further, that the proportions of female inmigrants as well as outmigrants for both class intervals are always lower than those for males. The picture is, however, dramatically reversed for longer durations of above 5 years. This corroborates the rise of single households and self-employed mong migrants, which seem to be gaining ground in all urban areas, leading to the phenomenon of wives as heads of households living away from their nusbands in rural and urban areas. Tue figures reflect now in very many areas of scientific, technological and economic administration, service, trade, banking and communication as well as in jobs calling for a vareity of skills, recruitment circu- lates only among urban populations where people of rural origin suffer from lack of comp arable opportunity. 610 5. Step Migration: Rural to Small Town to Large Town or City 8. As already observed, an attempt was made to order all the districts of India by four levels of development with the help of 25 uniformly available indicators. The results were later related with step migration which revealed several interesting features. First, intra-district urban turnover was quite appreciable at any level of development but was generally positively related ta the level of deve- lopment. Secondly, intra-district rural to urban migration was generally higher in the intermediate or lowest levels of development than the districts in the top level, indicating an intensification of the pro- blem of rural overcrowding and lack of improvements in the districts of lower levels of development, the first impulse being to move to towns within the districts from the rural areas. Thirdly, intra-state inter-district urban turnover was generally higher in the two top levels of development than in the bottom levels and so was the intra-state, inter-district rural to urban migration. Fourthly, interstate, urban to urban turnover for non-city towns seemed to be positively related to levels of development except where there were. special reasons of plantation and industrial development to account for an abnormal ratio. Finally, interstate .rural to urban migration was generally higher for the districts in the nigher levels of development than in the lower. In studying the backwash and spread effect of step migration in net gaining States; it was found that net migration streams in favour of metropolitan cities mask much urban to urban step migration for econo- mic reasons. Statistics for Madras, Maharashtra and West Bengal show how circulating urban to urban migration has gone to activise new areas of industrial resurgence in those States.” The mere fact that such large volumes of urban-bred population turned round must have helped to consolidate and strengthen local entrepreneurial and other skills. Conclusions 9. A study of India’s migration statistics will upset many no- tions based on the experience of urbanisation in the Western world, where nothing like this volume of floating or rapid turnover migration in towns has been in evidence. By floating or rapid turnover migra- tion is meant a situation where the volume of population migrating out of city iw a given period is comparable to the volume migrating into it and either exceeds or approximates the decadal increase in population composed of net immigration and natural increase, Such a situation obviously obtains in Greater Bombay, Calcutta, Madras, Hyderabad, Thana, Poona, Hooghly and Rampur. places like Delhi, Kanpur and Ahmedabad are not very far behind. The top industrial layer of urban India there- fore goes by this process, thereby exposing the precariousness, vulner- ability and instability of industrial skill, experience, knowledge and buman worth in the principal metropolitan centres of the country. Th ey underline the lack of a true industrial proletariat who have staked their lives in the city and severed their roots in the village. 611 10. The circulating migration of urban population from town to town leeds to several conclusions. The absolute volume of this type of circulating temporary migration of urban population and its proportion to mural born immigrants being quite high,it is obvious that this popu- lation will offér substantial resistence to the stream of migration from rural to urban areas, reducing eventually both its volume and velo city. Tue natural increase among the resident and migrating urban- born population will reap obvious advanta ges over rural-born immigrants in point of education, outlook, aptitude, technical skill and even urban housing end will tend to push back incursions into urban livelihoods by rurel migrants. Again, the extent of circulating urban migration suggests that a fair proportion of the total pool of urban population has to keep continuously on the move in search of opportunity and better employment. The home towns themselves offer only limited opportuni- ties for advancement, and what is available elsewhere must be disputed by those who are already employed in other towns and therefore compara- tively out of reach of rural born competitors. All this may have the effect of rolling back still more resolutely the stream of rural mi- grants into urban areas. II. RECENT CHANGES IN THE RURAL RESERVOIR 11. In talking of rural-urban migration, it is too often assumed that the rural areas of the country are a vast reservoir of poverty constantly trying to push people out into the town and the city. This is a notion which is sought to be applied on the analogy on the demo- graphic history of the West,particularly in the era of Industrial Revo- lution. In feeling at a loss for reasons of apparent slowing down of urbanization of India, one tends to overlook that rural development and the new sense of power and destiny that the villager has gained, to- gether with the rise in grain prices and the increasing profitability of agriculture, has been a definite contributory cause to the slowing down of tne flow of migration from village to town. It is often over- looked that even the sharecropper suffering from the worst disabili- ties today has greater and easier access to the inputs of agriculture and therefore to greater means of profit than the owner-cultivator had in 1950-51. Whereas in the past the peasant would eat his own coarser grain and sell the finer grain for attractive prices, it is now quite usual for the peasant to retein as much of the finer grain for his own consumption as he can and sell only the coarser grain, because the lat- ter often fetches more than double the price of finer grain 15 years ago. Another phenomenon which is overlooked is the extent to which savings of workers in metropolitan urban and industrial areas are sys- tematically ploughed into rural areas even as savings from rural areas are scraped by entrepreneurs for setting up industries in metropolitan and urban areas. In 1980-81, the Calcutta Industrial Region sent out Rs. 9278 million by postal money orders alone mostly to rural areas of Indi a. Bombay sent Rs. 233; million, Delhi Rs.77 million, Madras Rs. gg million and Bangalore, Aimedabad and Kanpur about Rs. 27 million each. These figures afford some idea of the further savings which the worker 612 carries home with him on his annual holiday, which must be more than twice of these sums and also how he gets along without the barest mini- mum of housing, sanitation, comfort and privacy in the metropolitan areas which are thus deprived of the fruits of his income in tnose areas. Speculation on land prices in all urban areas has also helped the rural reservoir and wnereas the bulk of the migrants into cities have been content to get the most of what the city or tow has to offer, and nard- ly thought of placing themselves as a group at its service, which has encouraged an un fortunate atrophy of allegiance, a reverse phenomenon of cohesion through prosperity in rural areas has grown. Although there is much evidence in 1981 Census of commutation to urban areas from rib- bons of rural and semi-rural settlements surrounding them, the greater deterrent today to migrational flow is not the slum in the heart of the city but the rural slum in the suburb, with much less hope than in the city of water, sewage and sewerage aud without an organised public voice or a building programme. Tuis, together with the opportunities taat the village offers today, leads to the speculation that some part of India's urban growth in the future will depend upon redefinition of settlements and on the greater availability of educational, social and municipal amenities in the prospering villages. III. DIFFERENCES IN FEATURES AMONG CITIES 8 TOWNS OF DIFFFRENT PREDOMINANT FUNCTIONS 12. Following the 1961 Census all cities and towns of India were classified into service, mining and plantation, artisan, manufacturing, construction, trade and commerce and transport towns and towns with high agricultural ratios according to the characteristics of tneir wo rk- ing population. The results were related to rates of growth and migra- tion which indisputably demonstrated a very high positive association between population increase and industrial growth in manu facturing ci t- les where such association exceeded that in cities of other functions. The rate of population growth in service, manufacturing and transport cities was much faster and higher than of cities and towns with other functions. Agricultural and plantation towns had about the lowest rates of population growth. The proportions of durations of more than 3 years were generally several times higher than those under three years for both rural and urban migrants in manufacturing towns. In the case of bota rural and urban migrants, the sex ratio improved in favour of fe- males with longer durations,indicating the growing stability of migrants In service towns the urban tury-round is much stronger and gets much closer to the rural push than in the case of cities with other func- tions. Some idea of the differential flow of migration into urban areas of differing functional characters is provided by the proportions of migrants in them and by their occupational distrioution. “The more acute differences are masked by the fact that within the same functional rubric is arranged a ratuer wide gradation of functions highly balan- ced or accentuated. It is observed that the higher the accentuation of 613 function, the greater generally is inter se migration between the func- tions, although the overriding role is played by the services, includ- ing employment that a mere volume of population and its increments tend to create together with what may be regarded as poverty-induced personal services in the tertiary sector. This perhaps accounts for the fact that the highest inmigration ratios are observed in those trade, ser- vice and commerce cities where different functions are moderately or highly balanced, although more generally the highest ratios are obser- ved in those manufacturing and service cities where the predominant function in highly accentuated. 13. Some analysis was made on the level of unemployment and on resident migration differentials in employment aud unemployment in age groups 15-34 and 35-59 for males. This yielded a picture of lengthen- ing shadow of unemployment over the younger educated migrants in age group 15-34 compared to the older age group 35.59 migrants. While the proportions of illiterate non-working male migrants are almost univer- sally smaller among the younger ageÿ13"B4, than in 35-59, denoting a buoyant market for unskilled jobs among younger workers, the propor tions of non-working literate, but without educational level, male mi- grants are appreciably more in age groups 15-34 than those in 35-59. Similarly, the proportions of male migrants not working but with pri- mary or junior basic or matriculation ovr higher secondary qualifications rise more steeply or even startlingly in age group 15-34 from those in 35-59. Unemployment seems on the increase, too, among the age group 15-34 compared to older age group 25-59 for male migrants with uni- versity degree or post-graduate degree other than technical diploma. For every 100 of non-working males in each city,unempluyment among non- working male migrants was proportionately higher than that of the non- working resident males in age groups 15-34 and 35-59, which is proof of the mounting resistance that the cities offer to the pressure of in- migrants and the working of urban pull in several key industrial cities Iv. THE URBAN INDUSTRIAL OUTLOOK 14. A variety of analysis was undertaken to define the ways in which cities and towns in India differ from the rural areas. The indi- ces examined were(]) predominant industry in rural areas, (9) age stru- cture, (3) sex ratio, (4) marital status, (5) composition of the house- holds, (gybirth and death rates, (7) levels of fertility, (8) rate of growth, (9) decadal growth and migration, (10) migration by distance of origin and duration of residence, (11) cultural characteristics like caste, religion, mothertongue, literacy and education, (192) character- istics of the working population like literacy and industrial distri- bution of workers, distribution of working and non-working population by broad age groups. distribution of working population by educational quali fications, 1983, technical academic qualifications of urban work- ers, 1961 and occupational structure of workers, 1961. These exercises reveal to what extent the size of urban settlement in India contributes to an urban outlook. At the same time one cannot fail to be struck by 614 the weak and tenuous di fferences they possess from what is shared: at the State or even all-India level. Vv. THE LIMITING FACTORS 15. This brings us to the question of urbanization in India. What happened in Europe in the second half of the eighteenth century and throughout the nineteenth nas little parallel to the Indian situa- tion. Firstly, no country in Europe started with more than a mere frac- tion of India’s population. Secondly, their urban population base was, again, a mere fraction of that fraction and nothing comparable to 2g millions of urban population with which India started in 1901. Th e pull that tne city or town exercised in tue era of Industrial Revolu- tion was due not only to the low urban population base but also low den- sity in the countryside and the low rate of natural growth. The low population base in the countryside led to many early improvements in agriculture and farming an d to the scraping off of savings for indust- rialization. To this was added the benefits derived from the colonies by way of raw materials and the competition for utilization of manpower at home and the colonies. The low rate of natural growth in tne towns cons- tantly demanded an inflow of labour from the rural areas to man the growing industries. Improvement in agricultural practices and mechani- zation of farming also rendered a large rural population surplus which now formed the hard core of an urban proletariat which had no means of getting back to the countryside. But the pith of the matter was the low urban population base which cried out for expansion all the time, becuase the natural rate of growth of tuis population was wholly inade- quate to meet the growing demand for labour. 16. In India this urban base is now go million and the natural rate of growth of this urban population alone (at 204 per decade or 16 million) is sufficient to meet foreseeable demands of industrial expan- sion in the current decade, particularly when we remember that the gross capital investment per capita in the public: sector is apt to be quite high. The amenities available in the towns by way of educational and other facilities will contribute toward a higner level of technological efficiency in the younger generation which will tend to push back the stream of rural migration. On the other hand the lack of pronounced rural-urban differentials will tend to reduce the force of outward pusn from the village. 615 ESTIMATION OF RETURN MIGRATION FROM PLACE-OF-BIRTH AND DURATION-OF-RESIDENCE DATA %* K. C. Zachariah U.N.T.A Expert North African Demographic Centre, Cairo. I - INTRODUCTION 1. In a recent publication of the Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, Hope T. Eldridge has shown that a hypothesis based on the existence of significant return migration with its characteristic age distribution can satisfactorily explain the sharp decline commonly observed immediately after the ages of peak in-migration in the age curves of both net migration to an area and net population displacement in a country; it gan also explain the apparent lack of mobility in the middle ages. In an earlier study made at the same Center, the present author used the same phenomenon to explain the apparent immobility of the population of India as measured by place-of-birth statistics“. These are two instances where the phenomenon of return migration is utilized to give a better picture of the process of internal migration in a country. The present writer feels that classifi- cation of internal migration into primary, secondary and return migration and study of their intensity and characteristics can provide considerable insight into the process of migration in a country, particularly on its relation to social and economic changes?. Return migration seems to be widespread in many countries in Asia at present and unless a special effort is made to study this phenomenon, our understanding of internal migration in these countries will remain very much imperfect. The main obstacle to under- * On leave from the post of Deputy Director, Demographic Training and Research Centre, Chembur, Bombay. 1. Hope T. Eldridge and Dorothy S. Thomas, Population Redistribution and Economic Growth, United States, 1870-1950, 111, 131-192 (1964). 2. X.C. Zachariah, A Historical Study of Internal Migration in the Indian Sub-Continent, 259 (1964) 3. In this paper the expressions 'primary migration','secondary mi- gration' and 'return migration' are used in the same sense as they are used in reference (2), page 251, but the concept of primary migration in this paper and in reference (2) is different from that in reference (1). 616 taking such studies is obviously lack of suitable data. Census data on "place of enumeration x years ago" seem to be one of the best sources of information on return migration. If data on place of residence x years before the census are cross-classified by place of birth and place of enumeration, the number of persons who return to their birthplace during the x-year period prior to the census is readily obtained. Dr. Eldridge in her work made use of the data on place of residence 5 years before the 1940 census of the United States. 2. The question on duration of residence of out-born persons provides data on return migration. If these data are available for two consecutive censuses, it is possible to make a fairly good estimate of the rate of return migration. For example, the migrants with duration of residence 10-14 years in the second of two censuses separated by ten yeqrs are the "survivors" of those with duration of residence 0-4 years in the first census. The difference between these two numbers measures the combined effect of deaths and return migration (during the 10-year period) on those originally enumerated; if the former can be eliminated (by applying a suitable survival ratio), the latter is obtained as a residue. The method, however, fails if the data are available for only one census. The present paper is concerned with the development of a method for utilizing data of a single census for estimating return migration. It describes how place-of-birth data when cross-classified by duration of resi- dence can be used to study the degree and age-sex pattern of return migration. II- GENERAL METHODOLOGY 3. Assume that a population is classified into N mutually exclusive categories (by sex, by age, by birthplace, etc.) and that the percentage distribution of this population by these categories at a given time is known, but the actual figures are unknown. Let the percentage distribution be denoted by: N Py, Po, Pz, Pa, nene DN where 20; 1 This population is exposed to attrition for a known period of time and at the end of the attrition period the proportion Pi of theith category is reduced to (PD; - AD), where 4p; is non-negative for any i and measures the absolute decfease in the proportion p.. The relative decrease is clearly the ratio of Ap. to Di: The sum of Ap. for all i (denoted by Ap) is the rate of attPition for the population as a whole, since Ep; =1. We assume that neither Ap, or Ap is known, but that the percentage distribution of the population by the same categories at the end of the attrition period is known. This distribution is denoted by: A, a, A, A + AN where 2a = 1 From the definitions it is clear that: Pi - AP; y 7 i=1,2,3,......N 617 ie., Ap; =p; - q (1 - Ap).......(1) Therefore, it follows that if Ap is known, Ap; can be calculated for all i. Conversely, if A p; is known for any i (say i = j), A p can be calculated, and using this value of Ap the values of Ap; for the other values of i can be calculated. In other words, if A Ri is known for any i its value at all other i can be calculated”. It is also evident that if n is the point between 1 and N such that: N 2 a - La = 0.5 then n N T Zap; - 20; = 2Lp, -1 n+ It follows, therefore, that the difference between attritions above and below the median category can always be estimated. ‘III - APPLICATION OF THE METHODOLOGY FOR ESTIMATING RETURN MIGRATION. 4. The method developed above can be applied to study the out- migration pattern of former in-migrants to an area when duration-of- residence and place-of-birth data are available for at least one census. The procedure is illustrated with data for Greater Bombay. S. Data - In the 1961 census of Greater Bombay, out-of-city-born persons were classified by age, sex, duration of residence and state of birth along with a few social and economic characteristics. The intervals in which the duration data were tabulated are: less than one year, 1-4 years, 5-9 years, 10-14 years and 15+ years. Let us consider the group of migrants (denoted by M) who came to Bombay during 1956-1959. Some of these migrants were enumerated in the 1961 census as those with duration of residence 1-4 years (Mj); some others out-migrated from Bombay between 1956 and 1961 2); while a few died during the period (M3). Thus M M, + M, + Mz. My and its distribufion by age are known and our problem is to use this information to estimate the rate of out-migration among M by age.” 6. In order that formula (1) may be applied to this problem, we require the percentage age distribution of M before and after attrition. The latter is readily available from the census data, being the age distribution of Mj (column 4 of Table 1). However, the reported age distribution in 1961 differs from that at the time of migration not only because of return migration but also due to deaths and increase 4. There is, however, one limitation. If at i = j, Ap; is equal to pj, equation (1) is not sufficient to solve for AD. 5S. In this example there are only two areas under consideration, Greater Bombay and the rest of India. Therefore all out-migrations of former in-migrants to Bombay are return migrations. 618 GRAPH |. RATES OF RETURN MIGRATION AND PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF MALE MIGRANTS BY AGE, GREATER BOMBAY Rotes es percent 80 — 71 so 40 TINN ee y mE | — Oo —— bec Os J +- - — 0% + 20 | Y + | 0-4 5-9 10-16 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 AGE 619 in age during the intervening period. Before the reported age distribution can be used in formula (1), therefore, it is necessary to make adjustments for these two factors. The method is described in footnote 6 and the results are given in column 5 of Table 1. 7. The age distribution before attrition can be estimated approximately if we assume that the percentage age distribution of in-migrants at the time of migration does not change with time during a period of 5 years. Under this assumption, the age distribution at the time of migration of in-migrants who came in 1956, 1957, 1958 and 1959 is the same as that of migrants who came in 1960. This latter distribution can be estimated from the data on migrants with duration of residence less than one year (column 2 of Table 1). The method is indicated in footnote 7 and the results are given in column 3 of Table 1. By using these data in equation (1) we can estimate the rate of return migration for the period when the migrants! duration of residence increases on an average from 0.5 years to 3.0 years. It is, however, not possible to estimate the effect of return migration during the first six months of the migrants’ residence in the city. 6. Let w. be the 5-year age distribution of migrants with duration of residence 1-4 years; wi = Wi- Sj where si = sbi_3 * çL,> the reciprocal of the 3-year survival ratio for a 5-year age group at mortality level 65 (UN Model Life Tables for males). 1 m. is the adjusted age distribution after eliminating the effect of Increase in age and of deaths, then: my = + 1.09 w! + 0.51 w/! 0 5 = - 1 1 1 me 0.09 wg + 0.58 we + 0.51 wig = - 1 1 1 mo 0.09 We + 0.58 wig + 0.51 Wig The percentage distribution of m, gives the q's of equation (1). The parameters in the estimating’equation in this and the following note are derived on the assumptions that the age distribution is linear within a S-year span and that the migrants are uniformly distributed within a duration interval. ' - ; : . 7. Let Si be equal to sLi-0.5 . sb,» then, as in the previous case: Mg = + 1.04 w + 0.06 we = - 1 1 1 me 0.04 Wo + 0.98 We + 0.06 “10 = - 1 ? 1 mo 0.04 We + 0.98 wig + 0.06 Wig The percentage distribution of mi gives the p's of equation (1). 620 8. Estimation of Return Migration - The computational procedure involved in the estimation of return migration from these data is indicated in Table 1. The method requires that the rate of return migration in one of the age groups is known, but this is generally not the case and in our example also we have no information on the extent of return migration in any of the age groups. It is, there- fore, necessary to make assumptions regarding migration in any one of the age groups. 9. Looking at equation (1), it is seen that the rate of return migration will be minimum in the age group in which the ratio of Pi to q. is minimum. In the present example this ratio is minimum in the age group 10-14 years; as a first step, therefore, we have assumed that return migration is nill in this particular age group. The estimates of return migration given in Table 1 are derived on the assumption that it is zero in the age group 10-14 years. Even under this restricted assumption the analysis leads to several interesting conclusions. Firstly, it provides considerable insight on the rate of return migration from Bombay. At least 29 percent of the male migrants who came to Bombay just before the 1961 census left the city during the period when their average duration of residence increased from 0.5 years to 3.0 years. The rate of return migration was relatively low in the younger ages but increased very rapidly after 25 years. It was minimum at ages 10-14 years and maximum at very old ages. The rate was more than 50 percent at ages above 30 years and at very old ages it was as much as 70 percent. These high rates are all the more significant because they are minimum estimates: if the assumption of zero migration in the age group 10-14 years is not true, return migration rates in all other ages will be even higher. Secondly, the analysis reveals how the return migrants are distributed by age. The largest number of return migrants was among those who were 25-29 years when they came to the city, and the minimum (neglecting ages 60 and above) was among those who were 10-14 years when they came. The volume of return migration decreased with age from age group 0-4 years to age group 10-14 years, then increased rapidly up to age group 25-29 years and decreased consistently at higher ages. 10. The consequence of relaxing the initial assumption of zero return migration in the age group 10-14 years may be studied by making alternate assumptions about the rate in that age group. Graph 1, where the four curves in each set correspond to 0%, 5%, 10%, and 15% return migration in the age group in which it is known to be minimum (10-14 years), shows that the rate of return migration increases in every age group as the assumed value in the age group 10-14 years increases. The absolute increase is proportional to a, but the relative increase is maximum in the age group 10-14 years and decreases in both directions from this age group. At the very old ages the increase is relatively small. For example, at ages above 55 years the rate ranges from 73% to 77%, or by about 6 percent, a relatively small range. Therefore, at higher ages the range of uncertainty about the rate of return migration is relatively small. 621 11. The range of variation of the percentage distribution of return migrants can be seen from the other set of curves in the same graph. The maximum volume of return migration is undoubtedly in the age group 25-29 years, where the value is most likely less than 20% but more than 17%. A minimum of 9% of the return migrants are among those who are 20-24 years when they come to the city. The very young age group contributes about 12% of the total and the range of uncertainty in this age group and at age 25 years is practically negligible. This ability of the method to give a rela- tively narrow range of variation within which the true value probably lies, a minimum rate of return migration at each age group and a minimum (or maximum after 20 years) percent contribution for each age group is an important consideration in judging the useful- ness of the method. 12. With the data available for Greater Bombay estimates of return migration can be obtained separately for males and females, for different durations of residence and for migrants born in different states of the country. The results of the analysis are not repro- duced here, but the following additional information on the patterns of return migration from Bombay may be mentioned: i the age-specific rates of female return migration and the percentage distribution of female return migrants by age are similar to those of male migrants; ii the overall level of return migration is lower for females within the first few years of the migrants' arrival (20% for females compared with 29% for males) but higher for longer durations; iii the rate of return migration decreases with increase in duration of residence for males as well as for females, but the decrease is larger for males (from 11.8% annually to 3.9% for males and from 8.2% to 4.2% for females); and iv return migration is relatively more frequent among those born in nearby states than for those born in far away states. The method thus provides considerable insight on the pattern of return migration from Bombay. It is the ability to provide such information that makes the method a useful tool for migration analysis. 622 Table 1. Summary of Data and Procedures for Estimating Return Migration of Males to Greater Bombay Age distribution of migrants * Estimated in Greater Bombay return migration by duration of residence (%) di Age Less than 1 year 1-4 years “a, Amount Rate | % distri- group Ob- [Adjusted| Ob- [Adjusted S Ap. A p.100 bution served (py) [served (a) (3)-(6) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) 0-4 12.98 14.03 9.58 15.20 10.73 3.30 23.52 11.21 5-9 6.22 6.02 7.54 7.23 5.10 0.92 15.28 3.13 10-14 7.67 8.27 7.56 11.72 8.27 .. . . 15-19 17.30 17.66 16.15 21.91 15.46 2.20 12.46 7.47 20-24 18.08 17.78 26.59 21.27 15.01 2.77 15.58 9.41 25-29 13.41 12.89 14.83 9.86 6.96 5.93 46.00 20.14 30-34 8.29 7.87 7.35 4.83 3.41 4.46 56.67 15.15 35-39 5.01 | 4.79 | 3.81 3.01 | 2.12 | 2.67 | 55.74 | 9.07 40-44 3.80 3.65 2.90 1.96 1.38 2.27 62.19 7.71 45-49 2.16 2.07 1.23 0.96 0.68 1.39 67.15 4.72 50-54 1.72 1.66 0.98 0.75 0.53 1.13 68.07 3.84 55+ 3.35 3.31 1.47 1.29 0.91 2.40 72.51 8.15 + 100 100 100 100 70.56 29,44 29.44 100 * . Pi 8.27 j refers to age group 10-14 and = = die, "0-705 J 623 The Pattern of Internal Migration in India During 1951-61 Joginder Kumar Group in Demography University of California, Berkeley, U.S.A. I. INTRODUCTION 1. Internal migration is considered to have a cause and effect rela- tionship with the economic development of a country. Consequently, it is regarded as a reliable indicator of economic development. Apart from the economic aspects, internal migration stimulates the assimilation of different cultural and linguistic groups which is necessary for social and political stability in a country like India. Thus, any kind of migration would be desirable whether the reason be marriage, education or the pursuit of live- lihood, etc. 2. Quite often the three concepts, urbanization, rural-urban migration, and internal migration, are confused. Rural-urban migration is viewed as the main contributory factor of urbanization and hence it attracts undue attention in studies on internal migrationl and urbanization. 2 Consequently, the slow process of urbanization in India (urban population was 17.3% in 1951 and 18.0% in 1961) is explained by the low level of rural-urban migra- tion and the population is represented as being immobile. This is how the relationship between urbanization and internal migration is presented. Obviously, this is an oversimplification of the whole issue. In this paper we shall show that among many important inter-state migration streams of India, rural-rural and urban-urban migrations are as important (and in some cases even more important) as rural-urban migration. The fourth kind of internal migration, viz. urban-rural, is understandably unimportant in Tashish Bose, Internal Migration in India, Pakistan, and Ceylon, World Population Conference, Belgrade, 1965. The author tends to explain the phenomenon of internal migration by rural-urban migration only. 2 Bogue, D. J. and Zachariah, K. C., "Urbanization and Migration" in India's Urban Future (Ed. R. Turner), University of California Press, 1962, p. 30. The authors try to dismiss the idea that the Indian population is mobile and they convince themselves by merely demonstrating the low level of rural-urban migration. (p. 45) *The author is a Ph.D student in the Group in Demography Program at the University of California. He has also been a staff member of International Population and Urban Research in the University. He is thankful to both the Group in Demography and to IPUR for varied kinds of help in the preparation of this study, particularly to Valerie Caires for her editorial assistance. 624 magnitude. If our assertion regarding inter-state migration is true, the same pattern of migration would exist within states as well. This would also demonstrate that the rural-urban migration understates the mobility of the population. II. PURPOSE OF THE STUDY 3. Inter-state migration in India is analyzed by sub-dividing it into the following four components based on the rural-urban status of the place of origin and the destination of migrants: a. Rural-rural migration b. Rural-urban migration c. Urban-rural migration d. Urban-urban migration The tabulations of the 1961 Census of India classify the population by place of birth and rural-urban status. The people born outside the state of enumer- ation are classified by state-of-birth and duration of residence in the place of enumeration. (Table D III of the Census) The migrant population (born outside the state of enumeration) is further classified into nine broad indus- trial categories based on their economic status at the time of enumeration. (Table D VI of the Census) The usefulness of this tabulation is considerably reduced because migrants are not classified in it by duration of residence. he data are also classified by sex and by the rural-urban status of both the lace of birth and place of enumeration. 4. Our main concern is to study the characteristics of the important inter-state migration streams during 1951-61. The scope of the study is involuntarily limited to seven states because of the non-availability of migration tables for the remaining nine states. The general approach of the analysis is first to identify one or two leading in-migration streams (dura- tion of residence is 0-10 years) in a particular state. The identified migra- tion stream is then divided into the four types of migration streams (para- graph 3). The dominating types of migration streams are chosen from these to study their economic characteristics. These guidelines are adopted in order to study the most important aspects of the last decade's migration in this limited space. III. LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY 5. The place-of-birth and the duration of residence data do not yield the correct estimates of net migration during intercensal periods. The fore- most inaccuracy is due to deaths among immigrants, since migrants who die before the date of enumeration would not be counted. Thus, the magnitude of an immigration stream is necessarily underestimated. Obviously, the amount of error is dependent on the general level of mortality and on the age dis- tribution of migrants. - 6. Multiple movements of migrants affect the migration estimates. If a person, born in place A, moves to place B and then immigrates to place C, 625 he would be enumerated as "born in place A" and "duration of residence at C = n years." The movements from A to B and from B to C during a decade will not be recorded unless the questions are designed to probe migration history. Similarly, the return migration can cause an error in the estimates of migra- tion streams. 7. There could be errors concerning the response of duration of resi- dence and place-of-birth. There may be a preference for certain digits such as 5 in reporting duration of residence. The duration groupings in the form of 0-4 and 5-9 years should reduce the amount of error substantially. Gener- ally, the reporting of place-of-birth is considered to be correct although some hope of political or economic gains may stimulate a person to misreport the place-of-birth. Furthermore, people may not be aware of boundary changes which have occurred since the migration took place. The Indian practice of bearing the first few children at the home of the mother's parents could lead to a kind of involuntary migration. However, if the migration units are very large (such as states), this practice would not cause any serious amount of inaccuracy. 8. Zachariah’ evaluates most of the above errors related to place-of- birth statistics and he proposes satisfactory corrections for the mortality factor. However, we do not propose to find the precise migration estimates because our main concern is to study the pattern of internal migration rather than to determine its precise level. It is obvious from the nature of these errors that the pattern of internal migration would not be drastically affected if the discussion is based on unadjusted migration estimates. There- fore, our discussion should be considered in the light of the limitations of the data described in this section. IV. THE PATTERN OF INTERNAL MIGRATION 9. It was possible to collect data on place-of-birth and duration of residence for seven states viz. Assam, Bihar, Delhi, Gujrat, Jammu and Kashmir (J. & K.), Madras, and Orissa. Table 1 in the annex crossclassifies migration streams by the state of enumeration and the state of birth for duration of residence of less than ten years. Figures along the rows show the relative importance of different migration streams to the state of enumeration. As a summary measure, this table reveals that in 1961 about 1.27% of the male popu- lation of the states of Bihar, J. & K., Madras, and Orissa consists of immi- grants (duration of residence of less than 10 years). On the other extreme, Delhi's population has a large share of immigrants (35%). This may mean that the proportion of immigrants in a state is inverse to the size of the total population. The comparison of Delhi and J. & K. contradicts this hypothesis. Relatively speaking, Gujrat's and Assam's populations consist of a higher proportion of immigrants than other states having approximately the same num- 3zachariah, K. C., A Historical Study of Internal Migration in the Indian Sub-Continent 19017 1931, Asia Publishing House, New York, 1964, p pp. 42-61. 626 ber of inhabitants. 10. The general outline of the method of analysis has been described in paragraph 4. We will select first one or two of the dominant (most numerous) migration streams to a state and confine our analysis to these streams. Table 2 in the annex gives the composition of leading migration streams according to classifications described in paragraph 3. This table shows the relative importance of different kinds of migrations. In the case of males, we observe that the Rural-Rural (R-R), Rural-Urban (R-U) and Urban-Urban (U-U) kinds of migration are of substantial significance. In 7 out of 11 migration streams shown in Table 2, the R-R type of migration is numerically more than the R-U type of migration--the one which is most discussed in relation to internal migration. This pattern supports the issues raised in paragraph 2. It fol- lows, consequently, that R-U migration is not a correct indicator of the mobility of a population by itself. The cause of migration need not always be to seek jobs in cities. Males still cross the state boundaries to seek jobs in agricultural occupations or to exploit new lands. The dominating R-R migration from Bihar to Assam is mainly to seek jobs in Assam's tea gardens. A significant R-R migration stream from Uttar Pradesh to Bihar is another important example where the cause of migration is related to the agricultural sector. The dominance of migration streams to urban areas of Delhi (both R-U and U-U) from Punjab and U. P. is obviously due to the special features of the state of Delhi--it is the nation's capital city and largely an urban area (89% of its population was defined as urban in 1961). The migration to Gujrat is mainly directed to urban areas and U-U type of migration is the most impor- tant among male migrants from Maharashtra. A similar situation exists for the migration stream from Kerala to Madras. On the other hand, migration to Orissa (from Bihar and West Bengal) seems, again, to be agriculturally ori- ented. Somewhat similar remarks can be made regarding the migration streams of females. 11. To pursue the analysis further, we present sex-ratios in important migration streams in Table 3 of the annex. The sex-ratios are shown sepa- rately for migrants going to rural and urban areas and their duration of residence. Two common characteristics can be observed from this table. First, the sex-ratios decrease as the duration of residence increases. Sec- ond, the sex-ratios in urban areas are significantly higher than those of rural areas. There are two exceptions to these characteristics. For the migration stream from West Bengal ta Orissa, the sex-ratios increase with the increase in duration of residence. (comparing 1-5 and 5-10 years only) For the migration stream from Pakistan to Delhi, the sex-ratios in urban areas are lower than those of rural areas. The next question is: How do we get these common characteristics of migration streams? The short term migrants are generally males and as the duration of stay increases, they bring their families from their place of origin. This tends to even the sex-ratios since long term migration usually involves the whole family. The higher sex-ratios in urban areas are usually due to the phenomenon of "lone" migrants. The high cost of living in urban areas prevents a married migrant from bringing his family. Migration to urban areas may also be for educational purposes 627 which is highly male selective in India. 12. Some economic characteristics of leading migration streams are pre- sented in Table 4. Workers are divided into three main industry groups: (a) Primary (cultivation, agricultural labor, mining, forestry etc.), (b) Secon- dary (household industries, manufacturing industries and construction indus- tries), and (c) Tertiary (trade, commerce, transport and "other services"). The industrial composition is also shown for the two most important types of migration within a migration stream. 13. In the case of males, some distinct patterns are revealed in Table 4. The proportion of migrants (shown against the rows labelled "Total") in the primary sector is always much less than the proportion of total population of the state (the state of destination) engaged in the primary sector. The predominance of the primary sector in the states' population as a whole (except the state of Delhi) explains this phenomenon. Further, the percentage of workers in a migration stream is significantly higher than that of the total population of the state of déstination. This is an expected phenomenon because the total population consists of a higher proportion of children than among migrants. Another obvious pattern is that in R-R type of migration, the proportion of migrants in the primary sector is much higher than in other types of migration. Similarly, in R-U and U-U types of migration, the major- ity of migrants are in the secondary and tertiary sectors. 14. In regard to females, the most important pattern is that the propor- tion of workers is much less than that of male migrants. This means that migration of females is usually due to non-economic causes. Furthermore, female migrants heading for rural areas (R-R type) consist of a higher propor=- tion of workers than those going to urban areas (R-U and U-U types). It is difficult for females to obtain jobs in urban areas while they can easily work in agricultural pursuits in rural areas. Due to many reasons, females have less chance of getting skilled jobs in India. This is why we observe that even in R-R type of migration the proportion of females in the primary sector is much higher than that of males. 15. There is evidence, though inconclusive, that the pull-force of the non-agricultural sectors is stronger than that of the agricultural sector. The amount of pull-force is measured by the proportion of immigrants in a state's population. Comparing the figures in the last column of Table 1 with those in column 2 of Table 4, we note that the proportion of immigrants in a state's population is negatively related to the proportion of immigrants engaged in the primary sector. In particular this is true for males. For example, in the case of males, 17.4% of the migrants from Mahamshtra to Gujrat are engaged in the primary sector and 2.4% of Gujrat's total population con- sists of immigrants. On the other hand, 1.2% of Bihar's population consists of immigrants and 43.5% of the migrants from West Bengal to Bihar are engaged in the primary sector. This negative relationship is distinctly clear in the case of the state of Delhi. It could be established conclusively if data for all the states were available. 628 V. CONCLUSION 16. We shall conclude this study with a few brief remarks. The pattern of internal migration during the decade 1951-61 clearly illustrates that rural-rural type of migration is an important component of internal migration in India. This implies that all internal migration does not directly lead to urbanization. With a few exceptions, about 30-35% of the total internal migration is from rural to urban areas and about 20% from urban to urban areas. The fourth kind of migration i.e. urban to rural is at a very low level. About 75% of males migrate due to economic reasons. On the other end of the scale, a small proportion of female migrants (about 10-15%) join the labor force. Proportionally, more females going to rural areas are in the labor force than those going to urban areas. Relatively speaking, fewer male migrants join the primary industry group than the total male population of the state of destination. The sex-ratios in migration streams to urban areas are higher than those to rural areas. Lastly, the data show evidence that the states higher in the ladder of industrialization attract more migrants than other states. 17. This study deals with the inter-state component of the internal migration in India. We have not discussed the pattern of internal migration within the states of India. Since the states are very large, the migration within the states would be a very substantial one. The census data of 1961 make it possible to study this component of migration. We hope that future studies on internal migration in India will be devoted to migration within the states. TABLE 1 INTER-STATE MIGRATION STREAMS, 1961, DURATION OF RESIDENCE IS 0-10 YEARS State of Birth (a) MALES State of Enumeration ANDHRA ASSAM BIHAR GUJRAT J, $ K, KERELA M.,P. MADRAS MAHARAS MYSORE ORISSA PUNJAB ASSAM 1,829 - 111,07 382 277 1,460 3,096 3,206 762 389 15,054 6,450 BIHAR 3,694 3,238 - 3,127 417 3,137 10,511 4,570 2,845 831 12,708 13,3@ DELHI 2,317 sek 5,080 1,819 1,888 5,528 1,48 8,783 5,733 2,137 715 122,387 GUJRAT 3,768 159 1,345 —- 260 4,958 9,805 5,81 67,463 2,933 348 5,980 J. E K. 67 27 209 37 - 118 133 276 160 133 30 8,409 MADRAS 33,716 132 hk12 2,279 259 108,708 748 - 4,350 23,544 277 1,682 ORISSA 13,963 2,453 23,994 809 Lol 2,315 10,689 3,182 1,218 582 - 4,149 (b) FEMALES ASSAM 1,090 —- 37,697 175 ho 313 2,333 1,574 293 169 9,120 2,384 BIHAR 3,058 2,956 - 2,167 154 1,962 11,088 3,085 1,713 483 15,217 8,749 DELHI 1,686 ho8 2,609 1,568 2,062 3,227 3,854 6,89 1,978 1,766 377 97,618 GUJRAT 2,579 74 652 - 105 1,751 9,976 3,276 61,986 1,718 228 2,958 J. E K. 34 28 69 37 - hi 100 220 179 86 21 7,464 MADRAS 38,689 T7 283 1,847 114 73,852 995 = 4,333 29,039 272 767 ORISSA 14,639 1,558 28,586 674 58 477 18,098 2,059 881 194 - 2,947 Source: Census of India, 1961, Tables D-III of the States 629 TABLE 1 (Page 2) State of Birth (a) MALES State of Enumeration RAJASTHAN U.P, W.BENGAL DELHI UNION TER,PAKISTAN OTHER TOTAL IMM. TOTAL POP, % IMM, IN (other than COUNTRIES TOTAL POP, Delhi) ASSAM 9,7% 19,368 17,949 339 7,494 161,666 32,389 395,29 6,328,129 6.26 BIHAR 10,283 85,299 71,410 938 146 30,422 17,773 274,651 23,301,449 1.18 DELHI 36,006 191,053 5,719 - 3,204 109,925 6,271 516,573 1,489,378 34.70 GUJRAT 57,005 38,589 2,094 1,@5 4,729 32,787 11,749 250,836 10,633,9® 2.36 J. & K. 360 2,352 164 660 437 8,053 557 22,182 1,896,633 1.17 MADRAS 3,661 2,009 1,623 1,203 10,203 2,387 19,412 216,605 16,910,978 1.30 ORISSA 2,161 5,276 19,768 1,285 9 8,276 1,599 100,149 8,770,586 1.16 (b) FEMALES ASSAM 3,360 5,088 10,755 243 4,481 128,066 15,371 222,554 5,544, 643 4,01 BIHAR 6,12 65,555 87,389 687 75 26,679 29,564 266,683 23,154,161 1.15 DELHI 26,206 12,773 5,063 - 2,233 102,906 3,313 370,472 1,169,234 31.70 GUJRAT 41,691 14,98 1,687 851 5,886 28,693 10,937 189,976 9,999,448 1.90 J. E K. 191 1,038 155 638 282 9,105 297 19,985 1,664,343 1.20 MADRAS 2,325 1,157 1,347 701 15,960 1,499 20,128 193,383 16,775,975 1.15 ORISSA 995 1,797 20,853 171 4 5,831 769 100,551 8,778,260 1.45 Source: Census of India, 1961, Tables D-III of the States o£9 on DURATION OP RESIDENCE IS 0-10 YEARS RR es eu 1. Bibar to Assam 79,569 26,451 1,517 3.295 n.8 23.9 1.4 2.9 2,543 3,764 456 a 86.4 10.0 1.2 2.4 2. Vest Bengal to Bihar 30,251 18,415 6,307 16,0h9 ©.6 25.9 8.9 22.6 50,060 PLR J 6,0 16,535 57.4 16.6 7.0 19.0 3. Uttar Pradesh to Bihar Ww, 72 26,595 2,896 8,956 2.5 33.6 >. 10.5 ha, 327 12,812 2,148 6,74 67.7 18.6 3.3 10.4 +, Uttar Pradesh to Delhi 12,766 124,126 +68 2,80 6.7 65.3 0.2 21.8 9,79 53,410 2 38,609 9.6 2.2 o. 37.8 110,812 100.0 37,6 100.0 71,022 100.0 87,160 100.0 85,139 100.0 65,431 100.0 190,160 100.0 102,234 100.0 E 15,606 27.4 15,578 36.9 18,960 20.1 18,130 3.997 -.8 2,602 36.6 20,106 18.5 19.0 20 or 5. Punjab to Delhi 28 > se... 0.3 45,090 95 6.1 0.3 6. Rajasthan to Quirat 26,94 2,7 87.3 1.8 15,357 1,59 373 8.7 7. Mabaresktre to Quirst 12 7,885 25.5 11.7 12,96 7,555 20.9 12.2 8. Memyad to 7, $ E. 1,755 896 20.9 10.6 1,563 666 20.4 9.3 9. Kerala to Madres 3,86 7,981 ho.3 7.3 26,0% 5,78 35.3 7.8 =v W607 36.6 39,504 bo.» 11,569 20.5 8,785 2.1 25,433 38.7 23,357 37.7 2,160 25.7 2,410 5.7 36, 72h 55.8 27,99 37.9 Tota 221,913 100.0 91.78 100.0 56,943 100.0 h1,657 100.0 67,449 100.0 61,978 100.0 8,408 100.0 7,161 100.0 108,67 100.0 7, 100.0 TABLE 2 Sex RR Ry un uu Total 10. Bihar to Orissa “ 19,315 8,169 81 4,64 23,99 3.0 3.1 35 19.4 100.0 r 15,602 7,954 1,117 3,837 28,550 54.8 27.9 3.9 13.4 100.0 - West Bengal to Orissa “ 11,696 2,785 900 4,451 19,750 59.2 13.7 h.6 22.5 100.0 r 15,685 1,810 804 2,552 20,831 75.3 8.7 3.9 22.1 100.0 N= Males R = Rural ? = Pemles U = Urban Source: Census of India, 1961, Tables D-III of the States TE9 Place of Enumeration Hay HC Ia Ca Hay HC Hay 632 TABLE 3 Duration of Residence 0-1 1-5 1. Bihar to Assam 3716 2468 7063 5951 4116 2936 2. Pakistan to Assam 1523 1366 2095 1466 1629 1389 3. West Bengal to Bihar 1152 690 1235 1147 1187 855 4, Uttar Pradesh to Bihar 2253 1079 2213 2000 2238 1379 5. Uttar Pradesh to Delhi 1588 1257 1790 2009 1694 1979 6. Punjab to Delhi 985 456 1400 1405 1091 1326 7. Pakistan to Delhi 1594 1955 1031 1035 1038 1040 SEX-RATIO OF MIGRANTS BY DURATION OF RESIDENCE AND SELECTED LEADING MIGRATION STREAMS, 1961 (Sex“ratios are males per 1000 females) 1910 6756 2454 1145 1196 1157 559 1785 805 476 1588 172 1300 1314 2502 1104 All Durations 2258 5680 2657 1257 1467 130 1036 640 560 1706 785 879 1791 1894 222 1315 1130 1730 1123 1127 633 Source: Census of India, 1961, Tables D-III of the States TABLE 3 2 Place of 0-1 1-5 5-10 All Enumeration Durations 8. Rajasthan to Gujrat R 1672 863 188 718 U 1722 1590 1504 1627 T 1694 1326 1144 1211 9. Maharashtra to Gujrat R 1389 LT 703 913 U 1447 1330 999 1091 T 1321 1066 895 1019 10. Punjab to J. & K. R 1951 1288 715 827 U 1157 961 833 901 T 1461 1109 756 860 11. Pakistan to J. & K. R 1406 888 764 837 U 990 gel 874 91 T 1155 903 786 866 12. Kerala to Madras R 1958 1388 1075 1279 U 1690 1507 1354 1471 T 1769 1474 1287 1422 13. Bihar to Orissa R 1112 631 530 579 U 1571 1060 845 93h T 1320 817 645 696 14, West Bengal to Orissa R 1250 566 889 654 U 1568 1544 18% 1503 T 1379 760 1040 820 R = Rural U = Urban T = Total TABLE à TABLE à 2 TABLE à 9 PERCENT DISTRIBUTION OF MIGRANTS BY BROAD INDUSTRIAL CATEGORIES (1) (2) (3) (4) (9) (6) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) TOR SELECTED LEADING MIGRATION STREAMS: ALL DURATIONS, 1961 h. Uttar Pradesh to Delhi 8. Punjab to J. & K. E males males INDUSTRY GROUP == == Total 1.6 31.6 67.8 100.0 7.7 Total 18.8 21.0 60.2 100.0 58.4 Type of Primary Secondary Tertiary Total Percest of = W _ x 100 R-U Li 30.2 68.7 100.0 &.5 R-R 34.7 13.4 51.9 100.0 65.1 Migration Workers = PEN. 9.6 29.1 70.3 10.0 67.7 u-u 0.7 26.9 72.4 100.0 46.8 a) @ (5) e ©. Whole State Pop. 6.0 26.9 67.1 100.0 R.3 Whole Btate Pop. 176.0 17.5 16.5 100.0 57.9 4 females females 1. Bhar to Assan Total 20.0 3.7 48.3 100,0 7.9 Total 58.4 14.4 27.2 100.0 5.8 R-U 23.8 183 57.9 100.0 5.1 R-R 72.8 14.9 12.3 100.0 8.4 mies u-v 1.5 4 85.1 100.0 hs vu ou 47 85.9 100.0 2.8 Total 0.3 15.6 43.9 100.0 88.3 Whole State Pop. 32.6 17.4 50.0 100.0 6.5 Whole State Pop. 85.3 12.9 1.8 100.9 25.6 R-R 5.8 14.9 31.3 100.0 88.5 - R-U 1.6 18.3 80.1 100.0 88.h 5. Punjab to Delhi 9. Bihar to Orisse Whole State Pop. 7.1 16 18.3 100.0 5.1 es males semles Total 1.7 26.2 72.1 100.0 65.5 Total 34.6 19.1 L6.3 100.0 853 Total 91.9 3. 4.7 100.0 5.7 RU 0.8 27.1 72.1 100.0 72.5 R-R e.2 9.8 28.0 100.0 62.9 AR 8.8 3.2 3.0 100.0 61.0 u-u 0.3 23.7 76.0 100.0 55.4 R-U 4.8 21.4 73.8 100.0 90.7 R-0 3.8 15.7 80.5 100.0 8.7 fumes Whole State Pop. 76.7 7.3 16.0 100,0 60.7 Whole State Pop. — 81.1 15.5 3.4 100.0 39.9 females Total 63.2 8.1 28.7 100.0 10.5 2. Vest Bengal to Bihar RU 184 13.7 67.9 100.0 43 Total 68.6 9.2 22.2 100.0 47.8 uv 1.8 u.5 86.7 100.0 3.8 R-R 85.3 6.6 10.1 100.0 58.4 a RU 11.0 19.0 70.0 100.0 ko.9 Total su 20.1 35.5 100.0 69.2 6. Rahasthan to Oujrat Whole State Pop. 173.0 1.1 15.9 100.0 26.6 R-R no 95 19.5 100.0 77.5 es R-U 18.1 33.2 M7 100 7.3 mu 10. Vest Bengal tc Orisss Whole State Pop. — 77.5 8.4 14.1 100.0 55.6 Total 7.4 434 49.2 100.0 77.2 males A RR 24.8 35.7 39.5 10.0 77.3 = 'emles R-U 2.0 8.h 89.6 100.0 82.0 Total 52.4 17.0 30.5 102.0 7.3 Te a. 23 10.9 100.0 29.2 Whole State Pop. 2.8 16.1 21.4 100.0 9.5 R-R æ8 50 12.2 100.0 72.6 e 3 .9 6. 100.0 39.9 R-U 36.1 18.6 45.3 100.0 10.9 females females Whole State Pop. 85.9 8.0 .1 100.0 27.1 Total 66.9 18.6 14.5 100.0 27.3 Total 69.9 17.8 12.3 100.0 12.8 R-R 81.3 13.1 5.6 100.0 2.5 R-R 7.8 18.2 9.0 100.0 13.9 3. Uttar Pradesh to Bi) B-U 3.5 les 61.0 100.0 20.0 males — Whole State Pop. 282.6 9.5 7.9 10.0 27.9 Primary Sector = I (cultivation) + IT (agricultura” lator) + III (mining, Total æ.0 36.1 100.0 7.3 7. Wabarushtrs to Gujrat fishing, etc.) AR €.2 15.1 23.7 100.0 78.7 mi Secondary Sector = IV (bousebold industry) + V (manufacturina otber than R-U 19. 7 49.4 100.0 79.9 . min es household industry) + VI {coustructica) rage A com Total 17. 43.0 100.0 . Sector = VII (trade & commerce) + VIII (trans: , sto: € females Rx 50.6 2.6 18 10.0 M6 Tertiary nications) + IX (otber services Total 79.7 9.2 11.1 100.0 31.7 u-v 0.7 54.3 100.0 50.6 The above classifications are given by the census. R-R 8.3 8.5 8.2 100.0 38.1 foma Source: Census of India 1 Tables D-VI of the States RU 24.6 21.1 54.3 100.0 8.9 : Total 65.6 16.1 18.5 100.0 21.2 nr 8.3 22 AS 1000 2.7 uv 2.1 27.2 70.7 100.0 4 635 Application of size-class specific growthrates in population projection! S. Mitra University of Kalyani, West Bengal, India and Emory University, Atlanta, USA. The problem 1. The possibility of using size-class specific growthrates in popula- tion projection was suggested earlier”, where it was also observed that such an approach is not to be considered as an alternative but as a supple- mentary to the standard method that uses age-specific fertility and mortality rates. While population projection by the method of components provides estimates of age-sex distribution at a future date, the other method attempts to derive the probable distribution of population by size-classes of their places of residence and therefore, can help national planning by answering a different set of questions. The accuracy of the former method is known to depend on the extent to which the course of future mortality and ferti- lity rates is correctly estimated and correspondingly, the reliability of the latter is contingent upon the assumptions about future redistribution and average size or density of population by size-classes3. In the present paper, an attempt has been made to provide an outline of such a method of population projection and to examine the usefulness of this technique with reference to Indian population. 1 The author is grateful to Mr. P. Sengupta of the Indian Statistical Institute, Calcutta, who has done all the calculations and given valuable suggestions. 2 Mitra, S, The c i attern of population concentration in Indian cities, Eugenics Quarterly, Vol.12, No.3, 154-61 (1965). 3 This is so because population in any size-class is the product of the number of places and the corresponding density in that category. 636 Definitions and assumptions 2. Let 210) be the number of places in the ith size-class and Pit) be the corresponding population at time t. Thus the average size or density P à = HB) , i= 1,2, ....,1 i(t) n i(t) At time t+1, the ith size-class will have 3 (441) places and size-class specific growthrate Milt+1) - Mi(s) an (1) r = i(t,t+1) Mi(t) over the time interval (t, t+1). It may be assumed that 2 (+) "2 5441)" If the assumption does not hold Mi(+) and 5 (441) may be considered in relative rather than in absolute terms. 3. It is easy to see that P. = a i(t) Bit) “i(t) . (2) and Parts) 7 Mi(t.s) Si(t41) = Bit) [1 + T(t, 441) di (tt) +. (3) Given (+) , Pi(t+1) therefore depends on Ti(t,t+1) and 4; (t+1)" One may anticipate that these two components may be estimated by examinging their trends in the past. 4. Fortunately, the density component has been found to remain practi- cally steble in India over the censuses recorded so far4. This however is not surprising as the distribution of places in a size-class is usually alterfed through smooth upward shift such that exit from the upper and entry at the lower end do not appreciably distort the internal distribution pat- tern of that category. Accordingly, the density can be expected to remain 4 See table 7, ibid 2. 637 [invariant over time, i.e., for all practical purposes UT de o oo (4) 5. Given constant boundaries of places and constant mmbers, changing rate of population growth will be reflected in changing size class specific growthrates. But rearrangement of boundaries, new settlements, annexations etc. affect these rates even in a situation of stable population growth. Past censuses of India have been influenced by the simultaneous operation of all of these forces. Naturally therefore, the complexity of the problem considerably reduced when the total mumber of places does not change and the population growth is not affected by irregular fluctuations. It is logi- cal, in such a situation, to start with an examination of the outcome under continuous operation of a set of unchanging size-class specific growthrates. 6. Next, the distribution of places of residence by size-classes has been observed to closely resemble Pareto’s equation’ in many countries at many times and India in particular, according to which number of places decline with increase in size, The effect of population growth is thus reflected in a reduction of mumher of places at the lower end and in general, increases at the remainder of the size-continuum. That is, where size-class- es are large enough so as to permit the movement of places from one to the next higher category only, and not beyond, the balance of exit from and entry to a size-class can be expected to be positive. From the point of view of operational simplicity therefore, the assumption of constant size-class spe- cific growthrates appears to be reasonable enough, at least in the short run. T. Alternative assumptions regarding the course of size-class specific growthrates may also be examined by considering the possible improvement in the projection model as well as their inherent operational complexities. One such approach may be to assume that movement of places, out of one category to the next, takes place from the upper end of the size-interval. Thus, over a period of ten years, places with sizes no less than say, seventyfive per- cent of the upper boundary of an interval, may comprise the group that is most vulnerable to such movement. In that case, the mmber of such places in each size-category may be determined either by consulting the directory of places by respective sizes or by using a graduation formula - Pareto’s equation, for example. 8. The latter method obviously, is simpler than the former as Pareto’s equation, after logarithmic transformation, reduces to logy=a-blogx, b>o ... (5) 5 Zipf, G.K., Human behavior and the principles of least effort : An intro- duction to human ecology, Addison Weslay Press, Inc., Cambridge, Mass. (1949) 638 where y stands for the size of place that has rank x when places are arranged in decreasing order of size. 9. Let the boundaries of size-classes be denoted by Cos Eq Eos + + e cy in increasing order of magnitude. Let it be assumed thet there exists an h such that for any interval, say the ith, the upward shift tekes place from the subinterval (he, , ei). Naturally, . c maximum enc c ... (6) i 10. It is now required to determine the partition of y(t into two parts corresponding to the subintervals (ey 1» he) and (he; , ej). From (5) log ¢; - log hey = by (log 2(+) - log *i(+)) ... (7) where i(t) and 2i(4) are the ranks of places with sizes cy and he, respec- tively. After simplificetions, {7) reduces to log Zi(t) = log *i(t) - Sy h . .. (8) or Zi(t) =p, (constant) ... (9) *i(t) The relation between n, i(t) and Mit: 1) cen be expressed as in the following Milt+1) = Pi(t) - Pi(t) [21(+) - “1(+)) + Mi(t) [*1-1(4) - *;-1(+)] ... (10) where m, stands for the proportion that will move unto the next size-class, i.e., (i+1)th. Because of (9), (10) can be written as Mi(t+1) = Pi(t) + (9+-9) a, 16) *i-1(+) 7 Ti(t) *i(1)] (11) Thus the size-class specific growthrate Ti(t, 41) © ma (P+ -1) [= i-1(+) ol - Mi(+) ne | i(t 639 It can be seen that a close approximation of X3(t) is given by *i(t) 7 Tirt(t) * Tiso(t) +++ + + ?1(t) cee (13) 1 being the last size-class. This is because the rank corresponding to a particular size, say Cys is given by the number of places with sizes larger then c; and cen therefore be approximated by (13). Also FL 1(t) = Ti(t) + ?i(t) ... «oe (14) Equation (12) therefore simplifies to Ti(t,t11) “Pe ) [Ps-46e) Hy 11) o | ee (19) Writing uy (,y =(p,-1) my (4) vs .. (16) (15) can be expressed in somewhat simpler terms as (17) Ti(t,tat) = Bat) Baas) - TOI mu o it The parameters Ui (t) can be calculated if the distributions of i(+) are available for two successive censuses. Thus for i=1, pe T(t, 441) 104) e e... (18) 1(+) Since by definition Mo(t) and hence Vo(t) are zero. Y(t) can therefore be solved from (18). Now, To(£ 4,1) * Y1(t) *[1(+) - "2(+) aa eee (19) 2(t Knowing TOL v2(+) can be determined from (19) and similarly the remain- n ing u values can be successively obtained. 11. In these foms, it is easy to see that no assumption is needed about the specific value of h (see equation 6), that divides a size-class into two parts. As mentioned earlier, this assumption does not appear to be restric- tive when in addition, unequal values of my have inherent flexibilities to adjust for that effect. 640 12. The assumption of an unchanging set of Ui(t)? i.e., Ui(t) = U, is equivalent to the constancy of the ratio mi (+) L2i(s) - CORO , which means that for any size-class, the movement upwards bears a constant ratio with the total number of places belonging to larger size-classes. This seems logicel particularly for countries in the process of urbenization, where increase in urban areas is both the cause and the effect of a further increase. Accordingly, mumber of towns and cities is expected to show an accelerated growth, at least in the short run. 13. By definition, absolute growth in ith size-class over time interval (t,t+1) is measured by Pa(t) Ti(t,t+1) = Pie) "i1(t) +[ Bi1(t) 7 "1(1)| *i(t) = W(t) Fica(+) 7 Vie) %i(t) ... (20) because of (14). Assuming constant mumber of places, and noting that u, and Xy are zero 2 Pi(+) Tilt,+1) 7 © ... (21) as it should. : 14. It may be noted that where mumber of places change from one census to the next, the parameters u, can be calculated by reducing both the distri- butions in percentage or relative terms. It may also be pointed out that because of (21), the assumption of an unchanging set of u values during the projection period would not affect the total mumber of places either in rela- tive or in absolute forms. This effect camot however be guaranteed when the contimation of a given set of size-class specific growthrates is assumed. Accordingly, an adjustment of the total, at the cost of either increasing or decreasing the entire set of rates (as the case may be), cannot be avoided. Unless otherwise justified, weights proportional to mumber of places should be used to adjust the distribution by size-classes, so that for the ith size- class, estimate of 13 (441) is given by x . MOLDE CA n M1) + ics) LT + Fi(t,t+1)] 2 di - eo. (22) i 1) en > (5) 641 Thus the assumption of constant size-class specific growthrates is to be modified by the ratio 2 ny( +) 2710441)» the magnitude of which determines the extent to which the rates ere to be inflated or reduced. 15. In what follows, the population of India has been projected for the years 1971 and 1981 using both the methods outlined above. Data and results 16. Distributions of places by size-classes? have been shown in "Table 1" for the year 1951 and 1961. It may be noted that number of places has increased by about one percent over the decade and this fact has been taken into consideration while calculating the size-class speci- fic growthrates. These rates shown in col.4 have been obtained by redu- cing both the distributions in relative forms. Densities for the two cen- sus years mey be seen in cols. (5 & 6), from which it is quite clear that these rates have changed little over the decade. Comparison with previous censuses confirming this observation has been made earlier!. 17. Assuming continuation of 1951-61 growthrates and 1961 densities, projected distributions of places and population by size-classes have been obtained for the years 1971 and 1981. These may be seen in "Table 2" where growthrates, for both the years, have all been reduced by about two percent in order to keep the total mumber of places same as that of 1961. 18. In the other method of population projection, estimates of the u coefficients have been derived from 1951-61 growthrates. These, shown in col.2 of "Table 3", have been assumed to remain constant throughout the two following decades. The decennial growthrates (cols. 3 & 4), have then been obtained through repeated use of equation (17). Thereafter, the mm- ber of places and corresponding population by size-classes (cols.7 & 8) can be easily determined. 19. It is difficult to comment on the results of population projec- tions by either method because at this stage, lack of adequate data pre- vents the examination of long tem trends of the parameters involved in these models, In either case however, projections for 1971 show a popula- tion of the order of 530 millions which, according to current population estimates, does not appear unreasonsble. According to the second method, estimated population of 660 millions in 1981, exceeds that given by the first by 16 millions, and this divergence is expected to increase if similar projections are carried out beyond that date. This however, is quite normal 6 See also Census of India, Reports 1951-61, Government of India publi- cations. 7 See table 7, ibid 2. 642 in population projections based on different sets of assumptions. 20. It will however be interesting to study the progress of population concentration by noting the proportions of places and of population living in places of sizes, say, 5,000 and over (see "Table 4"). As could be expec- ted, differences in the estimates of proportions between the two methods, are quite small, and in general, population concentration in larger places has shown a tendency to increase. Although fewer places bear the burden of a large population, the ratio of the percentages of population and places has declined from little over 20 to about 15 during the 20-year period. Percent of population living in places of 5,000 and over should not however be regarded as an index of urbenization since an unknown number of such places would not meet the standards used to designate urban areas. Accord- ingly, increase in urbanization may not parallel the increasing trend of such percentages, although it is extremely likely that by 1981, more than a quarter of the total population will be declared as urbanites in comparison with the present ratio which is less than one fifth. Discussion 21. The projection models outlined above appear to produce consistent results in so far as Indian data are concerned. Additional models can also be built and tested with size-class distributions of other countries. One such model may be constructed by expressing 14 (441) as Milts1) * Pi(t) + Via(t) ?ira(t) - Vi(t) ?i(t) where the v coefficients measure the proportion that will move to the next higher size-class, In this form as well, sum total of the number of places will remain constant over time. Another model may be generated from Pareto’s equation where the parameters a and b are subjected to temporal variations. 22, From all these, it appears that projection models based on size- class distributions may offer considerable scope for intensive investiga- tion. Further research may hopefully improve accuracy of the results by introducing refined technigues and suggesting assumptions regarding varia- tions of significant parameters. Table 1. 643 Annex growthrates during the decade. size-class (?000) (1) Below .5 5- 1 10 - 20 20 - 50 50 -100 100 -200 200 -500 500 + All India number of places 1951 (2) 380,019 104,268 51,769 20,508 3,101 856 401 108 40 20 9 561,099 1961 (3) 349,568 119,197 65,309 26,741 4,240 1,590 515 141 67 28 12 567,408 decennial growthrate (percent) (4) - 9.04 13.05 24.75 28.94 35.21 83.68 27.00 29.10 65.64 38.44 31.85 Size-class distributions of places and densities in India as observed in the censuses of 1951 and 1961, and size-class specific density (*000) 1951 (5) 0.21 0.70 1.37 2.88 6.69 13.64 29.88 68.04 136.50 298.80 1527.47 1961 (6) 0.22 0.70 1.37 2.89 6.72 14.78 30.39 68.27 127.07 297.23 1522.84 Teble 2. Projected distributions of places and population by size-classes in India in 1971 and 1981, assuming constant growthrate. size-class mumber of places population (millions) (1000) 1971 1981 1961 1971 1981 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Below .5 311,971 272,575 T5 67 59 5- 1 132,201 143,546 84 93 101 1- 2 79,934 “95,781 89 110 131 2- 5 33,829 41,898 77 98 121 5- 10 5,624 7,303 28 38 49 10 - 20 2,865 5,054 24 42 T5 20- 50 642 784 16 20 24 50 - 100 179 222 10 12 15 100 - 200 109 174 9 14 22 200 - 500 38 50 8 11 15 500 + 16 21 18 24 32 All India 567,408 567,408 438 529 644 645 Table 3, Projected distributions of places and population by size-classes in India in 1971 and 1981, assuming constant u values. size-class u decennial growthrate number of places population (*000) 1971 (percent) 4984 4971 1981 Hues (1) (2) (3) @ 6) (6) (7 (9) Below .5 18.96 -11.82 -15.9 308,259 259,118 66 56 5- 1 26.99 12.32 11.45 133,878 149,206 9% 105 1- 2 31.63 24.63 24.50 81,394 101,331 112 139 2- 5 43.76 28.63 28.28 34,398 44,127 99 128 5- 10 62.26 33.50 31.28 5,660 7,431 38 50 10- 20 30.54 77.48 73.47 2,822 4,895 142 72 20- 50 38.55 26.68 26.30 652 824 20 25 50 - 100 53.35 27.33 24.99 180 224 12 15 100 - 200 36.39 63.47 61.82 110 177 14 22 200 - 500 31.84 38.35 38.26 39 54 12 16 500 + a 31.84 31.84 16 21 24 32 All India 567,408 567,408 533 660 a The last size-class is open-ended and therefore no upward shift is possible. Also growthrate corresponding to this size-class is equal to the u value of the preceding size-class, 646 Table 4. Proportion of places and of population living in places of sizes 5,000 and over (1961-81). projection based items percentage in size-category 5,000+ on 1961 1971 1981 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) constant growthrates places 1.16 1.67 2.39 population 23.52 30.43 36.03 constant (4) places 1.16 1.67 2.40 population 23.52 30.39 35.15 647 ON THE INTERNAL MIGRATION OF JAMAICA'S POPULATION by: K. Tekse, U.N. OPEX expert in demography Introduction 1. As some indirect conclusion can be drawn from the census data the intensity of internal migration of population in Jamaica had stead- ily increased since the beginning or more precisely since the end of the first decade of this century. According to G.W.Roberts! estima- tions“ in the 1911-1921 intercensal period an average of about 4, 960 people had changed their parish of residence yearly and in the 1921 = 1943 intercensal period nearly 9, 050 did likewise, while between 1943 and 1960 some 18, 640 people were affected. This represent 59, 86 and 110 persons per 10,000 mean = period population respectively. (This increase in volume was of the order of 80-90% compared to 46% and 28% in intensity of internal migration between the two period), In the case of the 1943-1960 intercensal period most of the increase oc- curred during 1943 to 1953. From some indications it would appear that after the high increases during the decade following World WarII down to the late fifties the intensity of internal migration in Jamaica became stable on the relatively high level registered in 1959, 1, Work on the subject was performed at the Department of Statistics, Jamaica, while the author had been appointed as U. N. OPEX expert in Demo- graphy. The views expressed in the paper are the author's and do not neces- sarily reflect those of the Government of Jamaica or those of the United Nations. The present paper is a summary of some findings of the study. See: Tekse, K., Internal Migration of the Population in Jamaica, Department of Statistics, Kingston (1967). The author would like to express his gratitude to Mr. D. Rose, Director of Statistics and to Mr. C.G. Hodges, Government Town Planner for their valuable help rendered him during the whole study. 2. Roberts, G. W., Provisional Assessment of Growth of the Kingston - St.Andrew Area 1960-70. Social and Economic Studies, U.W.I. Jamaica, 12, 432-441 (1963). 648 2. In 1959 (or to be more exact, during the 12 months preceding the Population Census at 7th April, 1960) nearly 55, 600 inhabitants or 3.45% of the total population of Jamaica had changed their perma- nent place of residence and had moved to a new parish of residence >: At the same time presumably there was a large number of migrants who had changed their place of residence within the parish of resi- dence or who had changed only their dwelling within the settlement (about 1.5% of the total population), Moreover allowance must be made for nearly 24 thousand emmigrants and for about 7 thousand immi- grants. Considering that in the period specified above 65 thousand live births and 17 thousand deaths were registered in the country, the migratory movement and within this the internal migration of the po- pulation can be said to be quite intensive. 3. The importance of the internal migratory movement is empha- sized by the fact, that in most cases the migration of population with- in the island has a greater impact on the population of a locality, dis= trict or parish than the external migration. Moreoever, its volume and its population consequencies are eften comparable, if not greater than those of natural population changes. Sources of data for the analysis 4, Most of the countries have no direct information on the internal migration of their population and only few of them has some reliable information from population censuses and vital statistical registra = tion In Jamaica however, the data contained in the 1960 Population Census on internal migration offer very good opportunity to examine 3. Jamaica with an area of 4, 243 sq. miles and with 1, 859, 1 thousand inhabitants (at the end of 1966) is situated in the Western Caribbean 90miles south of Cuba and 100 miles west of Hispaniola. Since 1867 the island has been divided into 14 parishes the population of which had varied between 56 and 300 thousand at 1960. The capital, the Kingston -St, Andrew Metropoli- tan Area with 376,5 thousand population is located on the southeast shores of the island. 4, Elizaga, J.C., Assessment of Migration Data in Latin America, the Millbank Memorial Fund Quarterly, 43, 76 = 106 (1966), 649 the migratory movements. These data allow deeper analysis in inter= nal migration of population than the usual estimates onthe bagis of the data of consecutive censuses e.g. by the census=survival rate method or by the vital-statistics method, etc. In the questionnaire of the Po- pulation Census of 7th April, 1960 contains questions connected with internal migration as follows: usual residence; birthkplace; number of parishes lived in (6 months or more); years since person came to live in or returned to live in the parish, Unfortunately no information on the "previous place of residence" for those persons who had not lived in the parish of birth was collected. 5. Nevertheless these questions make it possible to make estimates of migration of a '"permanent' character (to give up one's place of re- sidence for a new permanent one = at least for six months ) between parishes. On the basis of census results the number of migrants by sex was determined from the number of population with duration of residence under 1 year. However, the age distribution of migrants could only be estimated since we did not have the age distribution of immigrants from abroad. Since there was no question for the former parish of residence migration between two given parishes could be only approximately estimated, 6. For the estimates of migration it would be possible to use the data on population with duration of residence in the "present parish of residence" under 3 or 5 years as well instead of those with duration of residence under 1 year. It is obvious that in this case the non=obser= vance of plural migration could lead to more significant biases of the two estimates. This was the reason for the selection of a shorter re= ference period. The main characteristics of internal migration 7. As it was mentioned earlier, the intensity of internal migration in Jamaica has constantly increased during the course of the twentieth century. This is especially true for the period 1943 to 1960. The simple birth=place/residence data points to this fact (Table 1). While in 1943 S.nearly 21% of the total native population had lived outside the parish of birth, in 1960 6.this had risen to 23%. According to data from 5. 6. Eight Census of Jamaica and its Dependencies 1943, Central Bureau of Statistics, Jamaica (1945). Census of Jamaica, 7th April, 1960, Department of Statistics, Jamaica, 2, Part C. (1963). 650 the sample survey of 19537 the value of the same Tate was about 24%. 8. The proportion of population with duration of residence under 1 year had increased from 13. 2% in 1943 to 38. 8% in 1960, Taking in- to consideration the native population only the corresponding values are 12. 9% in 1943, 36. 8% in 1953 (estimated) and 37.2% in 1960, This means a large increase in migration in the decade between 1943 and 1953, anda stabilization of the intensity of migration at the present high level between 1953 and 1960. 9. As it was mentioned earlier we can form judgement on the stream of migration between parishes only on the basis of broadesti~ mates. In estimating parish of origin (i.e. parish of former residence) of the immigrants into a selected parish, it was assumed thatthe dis=- tribution of these immigrants by parish of origin exactly coincides with the distribution of total inhabitants with duration of residence under 1 year by parish of birth, This assumption probably gives only a fair result because 81% of those persons with duration of residence under 1 year have lived in only two parishes in their lifetime, so that these migrants have moved into the parish of present residence from their parish of birth, This exclude native b.orn immigrants from abroad. 10. On this basis it was possible to estimate the intensity of out- migration from single parishes and the migration balance (net migra- tion) between any two selected parishes. It was also possible toestimate the corresponding intensity rates. From these results the following main streams of migration between parishes can be ascertained ( see Table 3): , (a) Intensive immigration to the centrally located parishes Kings- ton (in the first stream),St. Andrew (see Fig. 1) as well as to the parish of St. Catherine. The only parishes with continu- ous migration gains are St. Andrew and St. Catherine. In every other parish considerable migration losses were observ- ed (see Fig.2). A peculiarity of this process is the significant migration loss of the population of the parish of Kingston main- ly to St. Andrew. (b) A movement of population from western parishes tothe eastern parishes. 7. Report on a Sample Survey of the Population of Jamaica, 1953. De- partment of Statistics, Jamaica (1957). 651 (c) Migration from the western and southwestern parishes to the central parishes of the north coast. 11. A high mobility of female population (see Table 2) in Jamaica is probably connected to the particular and peculiar social structure and family structure of the society, One aspect of this is the excep= tionally high level of economically active female population, In 1959 57% of the total migrants were female and while only 31 out of 1,000 males had changed their place of residence during the year, for the female population the rate was 38 per 1,000. Differences according to age=-groups are more striking, The age structure of migrants is also related to the sico-economic factors of migration, In Jamaica as in most countries the majority of migrants belongs to the younger pro = ductive age=groups. Table 2 illustrates the sex and age distribution of migrants as of 1959, 12, A number of immigrants cannot achieve fulfilment of their original purpose in the new home or they see more opportunities else- where. Thus many of the immigrants will move into other towns or other parishes, some will emigrate abroad or perhaps even returnto their birth=place. On the proportion of these migrants or "secondary" moves only an approximate picture can be obtained. The estimates are based on the reasonable hypothesis (see:10a), that the intensity of internal migration had been fairly constant in the years before the 1960 population census. Thus in case of absence of secondary migration the ratio of the numbers of inhabitants with duration of residence un- der 5 and of those under 1 year (or 3 years) should be equal exactlyto 5 (or 1.67) leaving aside the effect of mortality (which is probably not very significant because of the young age structure of migrants). The actual observed deviation from this number indicates the proportion of those people, who had immigrated from 1 to 5 years (or from 4 to 5 years) earlier and had moved on (this is their second migration) to a new parish of residence during the past 5 years. According to the “results 47% of immigrants will move on during the next 5 years (in- cluding migrants to abroad). It is apparent, that the rate of second =~ ary migration increases with age up to 60 years of age for both sex- es, but for females only up to 40. It is the highest for males in the group 50 years of age and over. These data perhaps might be biased by responce=errors, 8. We use the terminology of secondary migrants of J. C.Eldrige for those immigrants who change their new place of residence for anewer one, see: Eldrige, H.J., Primary, Secondary and Return Migration in the United States 1955 = 1960. Demography, 2, 444 - 455 (1965) J 652 13, Consequently as a result of secondary, tertiary, and succeed=- ing migratory streams the average number of movements of an inha=- bitant during his whole lifetime is rather high despite the fact that some 40% to 50% of the whole population lives in the original birth = place all its life. An abridged migration table 9calculated on the model of a life-table for the year 1959 = indicates the average number of movements of 1, 85 for males and 2. 28 for females of 1 year of age respectively, that they may be expected to make during their remain ing life-time. The number of expected moves during the remaining life-time is decreasing significantly only after 24 years of age,although it remains over 1 until 30 years of age. On some factors affecting internal migration 14. One can only guess on the factors and motivations of this in - tensive population movement. Undoubtedly the economic factors ba= sically control the trend of migratory movements in Jamaica too. The effects of other factor's of a secondary nature as the effects of social or personal factors are however also important. The existing data nevertheless, can give some picture of some of the reasons for mi- gration mentioned. Some of the main economic factors affecting mi= gration between parishes may be changes in the type and distribution of agricultural production (and the increasing unemployment as its concomitant) or connected with industrialization, or the growth of the tourist industry. A glance at the data shows that generally no single one of these factors is responsible for migration. In relation to a single parish nevertheless, it may be that a high natural increase of population, high rate of unemployment, under developed industry or tourism induce a high or moderate out=migration} on the contrary low natural population increase, low unemployment rate, deconcentrated agricultural or relatively developed tourist industry are accompanied by low out=migration. Much of this is unintegrated speculation how- ever and for this we would need to analyse the factors of migration and separate the dominant ones mainly by parishes. 15. Going into details we would like to refer first of all to the pro- bable influence of the increasing concentration as well as other changes in the agriculture, The improvement in production techniques, the 9. Using the life tables of Jamaica for the year 1959-61. See Life-tables for Brithsh Caribbean Countries 1959-1961, Census Research Programme, U.W.I. 9 (1966). 653 mechanisation of agriculture with a consequent reduction in the need for labour, the concentration of capital in agriculture and as its con- comitant, the competitiveness of small -scale production on one hand and on the other the higher fertility of the rural population create some form of relative over-population in some rural parts of Jamaica, Here are some data to illustrate the process. Between 1954 and 1961 e.g. the number of agricultural farms in Jamaica decreased by 31 thousand, of this the nymber of farms with acreage under 5 acres fell by nearly 26 thousand. 5 By the same time the number of farms with an acreage of 500 acres and over increased by 19, their total acreage by 57 thousand acres. In the same period the number of agricultural workers decreased by nearly 100 thousand, On farms with acreage under 5 acres the decrease was 52 thousand compared to 6,5thousand on farms with acreage 500 acres and over. The average number of workers per farm had decreased significantly, but most intensively in the big farms. While in 1954 a farm with an acreage of 500 acres & over had an average of 146 employees, in 1961 the average 120 em = ployees only, The increasing economic activity of the Jamaican wo= men is another factor of this relative over=population. In 1960 30. 1% of the total number of women (48. 4% of the women 14 years of age and over) were economically active. This is one of the highest value in the world, and almost the highest in and around the American conti- nent. (It is another question whether 14.5% of them were really un- employed even according to the 1960 Population Census). 16, Moreover, the increasing industrialization of the island, the development of the tourist industry and the accelerating social devel= opment has enlarged the man = —À III P P ZK 1 J Where Kj is the city population of the city-size category Jj, mi is the total number of cities in the city-size category j, s is the total number of city- size categories, and 23 is the mean point of the city-size category 7. Formula (II) applies when the number of cities in each category is known. If the number of cities in each city-size category is unknown, then, formula (III) is recommended. When formula (III) is used, the highest city- size category is generally open (one million and over, for example) and there is no mean point. In this case the value of 2j should be taken as close as possible to the average city-size of the cities included in this category. If only one city is included in this category, 2, will be equal to Ky. Comments and Application 8. The urbanization index has the advantage that it considers not only the proportion of urban population, but also the mean city-size of urban pop- ulation. In addition, the value of the index does not vary too much if the 678 definition of urban population varies between reasonable limits. There is almost no significant change if urban populati on is considered as that living in places of 2,000 and over or 100,000 and over. Furthermore, in the hypoth- ctical and extreme case of calculating the index by considering all _inhabi- ted places (including isolated houses) the value of the index does not vary Too much from the value obtained by considering the limit for urban popula- tion for places with population of 100,000 and over. Because of the availa- bility of data, Panama and Venezuela were taken as examples (the first with a population a little over one million and the second with 7.5 million). The different values of the index for different limits of urban population, and for the three formulae presented here, are shown in Table 1. 9. Different urban definitions do not significantly affect the index va- lue or the concept of urbanization of a country. Therefore, for internation- 21 comparison, it is recommended that population data of the metropolitan areas over 100,000 inhabitants be classified as urban. The reasons for this advice are that generally such data are available for most countries,4 and that cities above this limit are more comparable from an urban point of view. In other words, a city of 10,000 in an industrialized country will have most of the socio-economic characteristics of an urban population, but these char- acteristles are not present in a city of the same size in an underdeveloped or developing country. On the other hand, practically all the Metropolitan areas (or cities) of 100,000 inhabitants and over in the world will have most of the socio-economic characteristics of an urban population. 10. The calculation of both factors--city-size and proportion of urban population--permits the observation of the reasons for the variation of the index between countries, or over a period of time for the same country. By having both factors, the changes or differences in the idex can be shown to be due to both changes in the average city-size and changes in the proportion of urban population. The index has been calculated for all countries where data was available in the 1950's and 60's. (see Table 2.) 11. In addition to the degree of urbanization, speed of urbanization can be established for any country during a period of time as the annual percent change of the urbanization index. This has been done for several countries where information was available. (see Toble 2.) Conclusions 12. The index presented coul be considered better than some of the previ- ous ones, but it is still not completely satisfactory as the urban complex can be defined not only by size but also by social and economic characteris- tics. Unfortunately these characteristics are very difficult to measure in a standard way for international comparison. 13. The advantages of the index of urbanization presented here could be sumarized as follows: first, the value of the index does not change signifi- cantly when different city limits for urban definition are use; second, as a 679 consequence, by taking a high city limit as urban (100,000 and over) the probability of considering as urban only cities with urban socio-economic characteristics increases; third, it takes into account the proportion of population living in urban areas and also the size of these places; fourth, it can be used for grouped or ungrouped city data without changing too much the value of the index; and fifth, because the value of the index is absolute (not relative), its changes through time give an idea of the speed of urbani- zation. Table 1: Variations of the Index of Urbanization According to the Formulae and Data used. Panama 1960, Venezuela 1961. (1) Size of the places considered (Number of Inhabi- Index of Urbanization Calculated with Formule tants) I II(a) III(a) Panama 1 and over 85 85 85 100,000 and over 81 81 81 Venezuela 1 and over 345 338 347 100,000 and over 336 329 337 (a) City-size categories used: under 100; 100-499; 500-999; 1,000-4,999; 5,000-9,999; 10,000-24,999; 25,000-49,999; 50,000-99,999;. 100, 000- 499,999; 500,000 and over. (1) Metropolitan area data was used for categories over 100,000. The defin- ition of metropolitan area was taken from The World Metropolitan Areas, International Urban Research, University of California Press, Berkeley, 1959. Table 2: Name of Country England and Wales U.S.A. Argentina Japan France Germany, West Australia Austria Chile Mexico Denmark Canada Germany, East Belgium Vietnam, South Brazil Egypt Union of So. Africa Cuba Greece detherland Italy Uruguay Spain Israel Portugal Sweden Ireland Philipines India Venezuela Iran 680 Urbanization in 1950 Year Propor- (1) 1951 1950 1947 1950 1946 1950 1947 1951 1952 1950 1950 1951 1950 1947 1956 1950 1947 1951 1953 1951 1947 1951 1950 1950 1951 1950 1950 1951 1948 1951 1950 1956 Korea, South 1949 tional Urban Pop. (2) . 7401 5594 4459 . 3660 3358 «5149 5535 3TT3 3303 .2058 3T34 .4271 3564 AA .1769 .1748 .1960 2995 .2612 .2196 4552 2552 .3192 .2545 .5810 1955 .2237 .2747 .1032 .0784 .2520 .1662 .1476 Mean Degree City (Index) Size (2)x(3) (3) (4) hko27 2980 3373 11887 3250 1449 3924 136 2980 1001 1663 856 1123 622 1385 523 1110 367 1759 326 961 359 836 357 997 355 853 353 1891 335 1826 320 1501 294 928 278 1040 272 1187 261 556 253 983 251 768 245 870 222 382 222 883 173 710 159 575 158 1413 146 1834 14 565 142 835 139 854 126 Degree and Speed of Urbanization ca. 1950 and 1960 (1) Urbanization in 1960 Year Propor- Mean tional City Urban Size Pop. (1) (2) (3) 1961 .7529 283 1960 .5963 3833 1960 4763 4735 1960 .3612 1567 1960 .2957 2669 1960 .3884 1057 1961 4504 1237 1961 Ho 943 1960 .2557 2593 1960 2611 2289 1960 .2151 102k 1960 .2430 817 1961 .0948 2272 1961 .3254 1032 1960 .2325 1409 Degree (Index) (2)x(3) (4) 3225 2286 2350 * * * * x 566 789 411 557 419 * un O \O ON ow * * x x x x x Speed (5) wv n= orb = er Nu 15 Table 2: cont'd Name of Country New Zealand Puerto Rica Switzerland Norway Syria Morocco Jamaica Colombia Thailand Ceylon Taiwan Kuwait Indonesia Iraq Turkey Finland Trinidad and Tabago Tunisia Panama Bolivia Algeria Ecuador Cambodia Pakistan Costa Rica Guatemala Burma Paraguay Malaya Dominican Republic El Salvador Senegal British Guiana Nicaragua Libya Madagascar Haiti Nigeria Ghana Ethipoia and Eritrea (1) 1951 1950 1950 1950 1953 1952 1943 1951 1947 1953 1955 1957 1956 1947 1950 1950 1946 1946 1950 1950 1948 1950 1950 1951 1950 1950 1953 1950 1947 1950 1950 1955 1946 1950 195 1951 1950 1952 1948 1955 4359 .2680 2894 2177 2540 2137 .2611 1933 . 0676 .0961 .2031 5794 OTT9 1748 .1695 3141 .1284 2394 .1286 .1122 14:94 .0893 .0510 .1987 .1055 .0540 .1470 .1268 .1121 .1190 1043 2543 1327 .1191 0588 0697 0479 0542 .0304 130 216 291 225 378 681 (1) 1960 1960 1960 1960 1961 1960 1962 1963 1964 1962 1960 1960/1 1963 1964 (2) .3126 .2900 .2638 .1892 .0981 2737 .1890 .2058 1337 .1680 1534 1364 1260 1800 2242 (3) 501 436 531 1256 294 447 273 273 305 162 342 375 274 184 (4) 157 * 126 108 100 k > kW + x k * * * * 81 (5) nNww wn 16 682 Table 2: cont'd Name of Country (1) (2) (3) (4) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) Jordan 1952 .0814 108 9 1961 1431 2H 35 32 Belgian Congo 1953 .0339 236 8 * Honduras 1950 .0730 100 7 1961 .0875 165 14 9 Afghanistan 1953 .02%0 11300 T * Angola 1950 .0399 164 T * Ivory Coast 1955 .0513 128 7 * Sudan 1955/6 .0254 260 7 * Rhodesia and Nyasaland 1951 .0419 140 6 * Kenya 1948 .0229 119 3 1962 .0517 232 12 21 Nepal 1952-4 ,0179 119 3 * Tanganyika 1948 ñ.0132 99 1 1957 .0146 129 2 11 (Metropolitan Area data was used in the calculation of the index. For 1950 the source was The World Metropolitan Areas, International Urban Research, University of California Press, Berkeley, 1959. For 1960 the metropolitan areas were reconstructed by using the same definition as in 1950. *Information is not available. Footnotes: 1. If the history of man is compared with these two dates it looks unlikely. If the period of 1,750,000 years since Zinjanthropus days in East Africa is comparcd with a meter (or one yard) the period of 12,000 years will represent the last 7 millimeters (or the last one-quarter of the last inch) and the period since urbanization has been rapid will be represented by the last one-third of the last millimeter (or the lest one-ninetieth of the last inch). 2. Macura, lilos, "The Influence of the Definition of the Urban Place on the Size of the Urban Population", Urban Research llethods, edited by Jack D. Gibbs with a foreword by Kingsley Davis, D. Van Nostran Co., Inc., (1961), 21-31. 3. Gibbs, Jack and Davis, Kingsley, "Conventional Versus Metropolitan Data in the International Study of Urbanization", Urban Research Methods, ibid. 419-435. 4. International Urban Research, The World's Metropolitan Areas, University of California Press, Berkeley, (1959). -9— 683 5. If the definition of urban is that population living in cities of 100,000 inhabitants and over, the same results will be obtained for a country of 20 million with only one city of 10 million, as for another country of one million with two cities of 250,000, or yet another country of 200,000 with one city of 100,000. 6. Gibbs, Jack and Davis, Kingsley, op. cit. Durand, John and Pelaez, Cesar, "Patterns of Urbanization in Latin America", The Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly, XLIII, No. 4, part 2, 166-169, (Oct. 1965). Recently two new indices have appeared: "Scale of Urbanization" (Su) and "Scale of Population Concentration" (Sp). See Jack Gibbs "Measures of Urban- ization", Social Forces, Vol. 45, No. 2 (Dec. 1966). In this article, the author defines Su = EX.Y where "X is the proportion of the urban population in units above certain size (e.g. above 4,999) and Y is the proportion of the total population in the same units," and Sp = EX. In spite of what the author said in respect of Su... "the two variables X and Y are mathematically independent within certain limits e.g. if the value of X for a given size class is «999, Y could assume any value from less than .001 to .999..." the two variebles are dependent for any case and Y; = Xj.ccwhere acis the proportion of the total population in urban areas. tm the example presented of Yugoslavia, a would be +412.) Therefore, Su = œXX“ and Sp =X. Both indices are closely related and they measure the same thing: concentration; and, of course, the correlation of both indices, as the author calculated, although this was not absolutely necessary, has to be very close to one. 7. For these two indices and others, see Duncan, O. "The Measurement of Population Distribution", Population Studies, XI, no. 1, (July, 1957) 27-45. 8. Davis, Kingsley, "Las Causas y Efectos del Fenomeno de Primacia Urban con Referencia Especial a America Latina", Mexico, D.F.: Instituto de Investiga- ciones Sociales, 1962. (Read at the 14th Annual Congress of the Mexican Sociological Society, Hermosillo, Sonora, Mexico, November 1962.) 9. A simple explanation of this mean city-size of urban population is obtained if a parallel comparison with the calculation of the mean age of the population is made. In the case of mean city-size, the variable age is changed by the size of the city. Thus, the frequency (population of the city) for each value of the variable (city-size) is equal to the variable. Therefore, the square - power is obtained. 684 MIGRATION TO URBAN AREAS IN PAKISTAN by Mohammad Afzal Research Demographer Pakistan Institute of Development Economics Karachi 1 1. Like many other countries of Asia, the rate of urbanization in-Pakistan has increased tremendously in recent years. Looking at rural and urban population growth in the past sixty years or so, it is observed that the percentage increase in the urban areas has always been higher than in rural areas. The percentage of urban popu- lation in the total population of the country has been steadily growing and has more than doubled over this period. It is observed from Table 1 that the urban proportion incr- eased unprecedently during 1941-51. This increase was due mainly to post partition Indian migrants settling mostly in urban areas. Looking at the urban increases during 1951-61 it is observed that the percentage increase has been a little more than that of the previous decade. This suggests that urban areas have not only absorbed large number of immigrants from India in the previous decade but also are attracting a much larger number from rural areas. This observation can also be confirmed from Table 1 where we note a continuous decline in the proportion of rural population in the total population of the country. This shift of population from rural to urban areas is obviously associated with the rapid nace of industrialisation“. Keeping in view the fact that 1. The author is thankful to Dr. Lee L. Been, Research Advisor for the many useful comments he made on the earlier drafts. 2. Pakistan, Office of the Census Commisioner, Census of Pakistan Population, 1961, I, lanager of Publication Karachi, , 15-23 685 the net international immigration into Pakistan was only 0.8 million during 1951-61, the increase_in urban areas was due largely to rural-urban migration”, 2. This rapid urbanization in Pakistan has also created such problems as housing shortage, supply diffi- culties, transport shortage, etc. which are usually very difficult to solve. Hence the knowledge of magnitude and "rate of urban ward migration has became one of the basic requirements for the urban planning and for improving the economic and social conditions of the people. This situ- ation has therefore compelled the demographers to put renewed efforts to the study of internal migration. Un- fortunately studies on this topic and in particular rural- urban migration have rather been neglected, mainly on the excuse of non-availability of appropriate and sufficient data. 3. In this paper an attempt is being made to arrive at some estimates of inter-censal urban migration in East and West Pakistan on the basis of 1951 and 1961 census data. To arrive at any estimates of urban migration the place of birth data from the two censuses are not of much help since only the districts of birth are given and not the cities. Even for the districts the place of birth data do not give rural-urban breakdown. Also the 1951 Census Volumes do not give the break down of city popula- tion by age groups. Under these circumstances one cannot make any direct use of such data for the study of internal migration towards urban areas. We are thus applying the method of survival ratios, to achieve our purpose. This indirect method will only lead to estimates of intercensal net migration into urban areas of Pakistan, of population age 10 and over. From these we can derive the migration rates. Leo The crux of this approach is that if the popula- tion of a country is closed (or nearly closed) to migra- tion from other countries then it will only grow due to natural increase, but the population growth of any community within the country will be subject to natural increase plus internal migration. If we assume that the rural-urban differentials in mortality are negligible then the net internal migration in a community can be estimated through the application of the survival ratio of the country 3. Pakistan, Office of the Census Commisioner, ibid. 686 to the population of the community. The reason why a mention is made of mortality and not of fertility, is that we are estimating migration of people age 10 and over and thus any births to the original population in 1951 will not be involved in the intercensal survival ratio of East and West Pakistan. 5. We shall compute the survival ratios separately for bast and West Pakistan in preference to the survival ratio as a whole. This is being done because the mortality conditions in the two wings are different as is indicated by their survival ratios and also by the 1962-63 PGE datak, 6. For the application of the survival ratio technique we shall proceed as follows:- a) Compute the survival ratio of each wing of Pakistan for each sex separately. S = Population of ase 10 and over in 1961 Total Population in 1951 b) Compute the 1961 expected population of age 10 and over in a community. by multiplying its 1951 population by the survival ratio of Last or West Pakistan (computed above) i.e. > = F1961 7 P1951 x S where 15 961 = expected population of age 10 and over in the community. P4951 = actual 1951 population of the community. 4. Been, Lee L. and M.R. Khan, Mortality Patterns in Pakistan, a paper contributed to Pakistan Statistical Conference, Dacca, (1967) The difference in the survival ratios also suggests a positive net immigration into West Pakistan and a posi- tive net emigration from mast Pakistan during the intercensal period. 5. In this paper a community indicates the total urban areas in a district existing at the time of 1961 census. Thus for the purposes of this study all those areas which were rural in 1951 but became urban during the intercensal period, were considered as urban for both the censuses. 687 c) Take the difference of actual 1961 population P1961 of the community and the expected 1961 P1961 - ONS = M4951 - 61 this will give M 95161 the estimated net migration into the community. population 1961 d) Then M951-61 x 100 is the migration P1951 rate for the intercensal period. Selection of Survival Ratios 7. The main assumption involved in the application of the survival ratio method is that the population of East or west Pakistan should be considered to be closed to migration during 1951-61. The following objections may be raised with respect to this assumption:- a) There was considerable migration from out side the boundries of Pakistan into West or East Pakistan during 1951 and 1961. b) There is a contimons migration between Last and West Pakistan®. Under these conditions, would it be justified to take the overall survival ratio of each province separately as to be the most appropriate? Because of this problem it was decided to estimate the survival ratio of only the native born for each province of Pakistan, and then compare it with the overall survival ratios. This is being done to have some idea about the effect of immigrants on the proportion of 1951 population surviving in 1961. 8. To arrive at the estimates of survival ratios for each wing of Pakistan, without the influence of immigration, it was decided to eliminate the number of foreign-born persons from both the censuses, For this procedure we need to have the following information on non-native born for 6. Census of Pakistan Population 1961, I, op.cit., II 70-73 688 both East and West Pakistan:- a) For 1951 census the total number enumerated b) For 1961 census the total number of those aged 10 and over. The census data of Pakistan however only provided the total number of non-native born and not their age distribution, This means that for 1951 there is no problem since we only need the total figures but for 1961 we will have to estimate the proportion of non-native born in the ages 10 and over. Before making an estimate of this proportion it is impor- tant to consider the circumstances which brought the migrants into Pakistan after 1951. For this one can think of two al- ternatives the first is that most of the immigration into either of the province was in family units like it was just after 1947 when the partition of India and Pakistan took place7. In that case one can consider the age distribution of intercensal immigrants as to be approximately the same as of the total population. The second alternative is that most of the immigration after 1951 was of individuals and ’ not of family units since the tense situation which preva- iled just after partition was no more in existance. In addition many of the already settled immigrants who have many of their relations still in India wanted to marry their sons to the daughter of their relations in that country, as a result fairly large number of girls migrated into Pakistan each year. Thus most of the migrants who came during the intercensal period 1951-61 must be of the age 10 and over. 9. To test the two above mentioned alternatives we computed the survival ratios of the native borns on the basis of both alternatives and compared them with the over- all survival ratio of each wing of Pakistan. These survival ratios are given in Table 2. 10. It is observed from Table 2 that the survival ratios, computed on the assumption that migratory movement to Pakistan after 1951 was in families, are very high as compared to the overall survival ratios. This indicates 7. The observation that the immigration before 1951 was in family units is also suggested by the comparable sex ratios and the proportions under 12 of immigrants and overall population in 1951. See, Pakistan, Office of the census commissionar, Census of Pakistan, 1951, I, Manager of Publications, Karachi, 102-103 689 that our consideration that the age distribution of the migrants was similar to the overall age distribution is not true, as by this method we have taken out a number of people who were actually of age more than 10 in 1961 to be of age less than 10. This has made the proportion of natives over 10 to be abnormally high. These higher sur- vival ratios give more erroneous results for West Pakistan. 11. Now if we look at the survival ratios of native borns estimated on the assumption that all the immigrants were of age over ten, we observe that they are very close to the overall survival ratios which indicates that rost of the foreign borns were of age 10 and over in 1961. In other words it is demonstrated that it is fairly justified to take the overall survival ratios as to be the most appropriate. This decision is reinforced by the fact that these survival ratios take into account the survivors of those immigrants who came before the 1951 census as a result of partition of the Indo-Pakistan sub-continent, and then became nationals of Pakistan. It also takes care of the small proportion of intercensal migrants from outside Pakistan who were under 10 at the time of 1961 census. Net Migration towards urban areas by Administrative divisions 12. Table 3 gives the number of net rural to urban migrants of age 10 and over in East and West Pakistan by administrative divisions. These estimates of course include the balance of international migration in the urban areas. The total number of net migrants into the urban areas of East Pakistan during the intercensal period 1951-61 was 359373, of which 247825 were male and 111548 were female. This means that the male to female ratio was over 2 to 1. For West Pakistan the total number of net migrants to urban areas is estimated to be 1247871 of them 739820 were male and 508051 female. This shows that the male to female ratio of migrants in West Pakistan was about 1,5to 1. 13. In terms of overall migration rates per hundred 1951 population of urban areas, it is observed that the East Pakistan rate for males is 21.6 as against 18.7 for west Pakistan. For females the comparable rates are 14.7 and 18.2 for the two provinces respectively. 690 East Pakistan 14. With respect to volume of migration to urban areas, Dacca division leads all other divisions-for both males and females, Khulna division, Chittagong division and fa jshahi division come next in order. It is interesting to note that the net migration to Dacca division is more than the total migration in all other divisions. In fact most of the urban migration in Dacca division is to the urban areas of Dacca district only. Such a large migration towards Dacca division is obviously because of the impor- tance of Dacca as the Capital of East Pakistan and the rapidly developing industries in the area. Migration to urban areas of Khulna and Chittagong divisions is also due to rapid pace of industrialisation. 15. In terms of migration rates Dacca division again leads all other divisions with Khülna division closely following it. Next in order are Chittagong and Rajshahi divisions. 16. The fact that most of the migration to the urban areas Of these divisions is directly related to the rapid industrialisation is also visible when we compare the volume of male migration with the female migration. It is observed that the males are going to urban areas in much larger numbers than females. In Khulna and Dacca divisions the male to female ratio is 2 to 1. While in Chittagong it is almost 7 to 1. est Fakistan 17. Table 3 shows that volume of net urban migration in «est Pakistan was almost 4 times that of East Pakistan. Looking at table 3 again, it is observed that all admin- istrative divisions in West Pakistan show positive urvanward migration except D.I. Khan and Kalat where the case is reverse. In terms of volume the migration to Karachi, Sargodha, Lahore, Hyderabad, Multan and Khairpur divisions is most conspicuous. While Karachi division had more than O.4 million migrants, Sargodha and Lahore had around 0,15 million each. Multan division comes next in order with a net urbanward migration of 0.13 million. Next in the order are Bahawalpur, Peshawar and Rawalpindi divisions. 691 18. The biggest volume of migration in Pakistan is to Karachi division. It is observed from Table 3 that this division attracts about 35 percent of the total migrants in West Pakistan. This big volume of migration is almost all to the city of Karachi. The reason why so many people move into this city is that it is the most industrialised and commercial city of Pakistan and also is the main sea- port of West Pakistan. This largest urban agglomeration in Pakistan was also the canica of the country upto 1959. According to a sample surveyó conducted in 1959 about 18 percent of its population was in-migrant from within the country. 19. In Sargodha division the main centre of attraction is the city of Lyallpur. This industrial city has grown from a population of 179,127 in 1951 to 425,248 in 1961 an increase of 137.4 percent. 20. Again the attraction in Lahore division is mainly the city of Lahore. This city which was formerly the capital of the Punjab is now the capital of West Pakistan province. This city is famous as the city of colleges and after partition of the sub-continent has also grown to be a big industrial city. So a large volume of migration inspite of its already existing big population is not a strange phenomenon. The urbanward migration in Multan and Peshawar is also due to their industrial and educational importance. In Bahawalpur division Rahim Yar Khan is a growing industrial city. Rawalpindi division gained more urban population from other areas as a result of the city of Rawalpindi becoming the interim capital of the country. In this division also there have been industrial expansions in Rawalpindi, Gujrat and Jhelum districts. 21. In terms of migration rates Bahawalpur, Karachi, Hyderabad, Sargodha and Multan divisions are note worthy. The only divisions showing negative rates are D.I. Khan and Kalat. 8. Hussain, I., Afzal, M., and Rizvi, S.A.A.B., Social Characteristics of the People of Karachi, Monograph No.14, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Karachi, 43-47, (1965) 692 Conclusions 22. The study indicates that the total number of net intercensal migrants of age 10 and over to urban areas in the whole of Pakistan was about 1.61 million. Out of this the number in East Pakistan was only 360 thousand and the majority, 1.25 million, moved into urban centres of West Pakistan. While the volume of migration in West Pakistan was almost four times than that of East Pakistan both for males as well as females, the migration rate for males is higher in East Pakistan than West Pakistan. On the other hand the female rate in Jest Pakistan is over 3 percentage points higher than bast Pakistan. Looking at the difference between the male and the female rates with- in each province it is observed that the male rate is about 7 percentage points higher in East Pakistan and only 0.6 percentage point higher in West Pakistan. This probably indicates that in West Pakistan more people migrate with their families than in East Pakistan. The reason why the volume of migration to urban areas is greater in West Pak- istan is obviously because of relatively more "Pull" factors such as the relatively more industrial establishments in the larger number of urban centres in West Pakistan. To explain why fewer females migrate to urban areas in East Pakistan Krotki9 in one of his papers suggests that "large numbers move in but large numbers move out again after relatively short periods of stay in the towns. They leave their families behind in rural areas and they therefore, do not contribute to a permanent growth of the towns in Last Pakistan". His suggestion along with the observations made earlier leads to the possible conclusion that the urban centres in East Pakistan being relatively new cannot offer as yet the social environment and the necessary civic amenities, so that rural families can easily move-in and settle. The result is that only menfolk settle in urban areas semi-permanently and their families usually remain in the village. Their West Pakistan counterparts 9. Krotki, K.J., Temporariness of Urban Migration Egtimated from Ape Distribution in Large and Small Towns of mast and «est Pakistan, Proceedings of the Pakistan Statistical Association, II, 115-126, (1963) however have more old established urban centres 693 10 and their increased migration towards urban areas had been socially and psychologically easy because of the old set precedence, and physically easy because of easier means of communication. Annex "Table 1" Urban and Rural distribution of Population and decennial variation 1901-61, Pakistan? URBAN RURAL Year Percent of Decennial Percent of Decennial total Percentage total Percentage Population Variation Population Variation 1901 5.1 - 94.9 = 1911 4.9 8.5 95.1 8.4 1921 5.4 16.1 94.6 6.2 1931 6.5 32.1 93.5 7.5 1941 7.3 Ll 1 92.1 17.0 1951 10.4 41.9 89.6 5.1 1961 13.1 57.4 86.9 20.6 a. Pakistan, Office of the Census Comissionar, op.cit., Statement 2.15 TT 10. Ahmad, K.S. Urbanization Trends in West Pakistan, Pakistan Geographical Review, 21, No.1, (1966) 694 Annex "Table 2" Comparison of Survival Ratios of native born estimated on the basis of two alternatives, with overall survival ratios East and West Pakistan 1951-61 mea ; EAST PAKISTAN WEST PAKISTAN Ratio Male Female Male Female Overall 76.68 75.64 85.91 84.28 Native born (Alternative I) 77.70 76.30 9.40 92.20 Native born (Alternative II) 76.64 75.75 86.17 83.87 a. To arrive at the survival ratios of native born on the basis of both the alternatives, the 1951 population of native born has been estimated by subtracting the total population of non-native born as reported in the 1951 census from the total overall population. The propor- tion of native born of age 10 and over in the 1961 sensus would however be different under each of the two alternatives. The explanations for the two alternatives are as follows:- i. Alternative I assumes that the intercensal immigrants reported in the 1961 census had the same age distribution as the total population. This means that the percentage of immigrants in the ages 10 and over would also be the same as in the total population. So, the number of native born in the ages 10 and over has been estimated by subtracting the number of immi- grants in the age 10 and over from the number of per- sons of the same ages in the total population. ii. Alternative II assumes that all the inter- censal immigrants were of age 10 and over. So the number of native born in the ages 10 and over has been estimated by subtracting the total immigrants from the number of persons of age 10 and over in the total population. 695 Annex "Table 3" Net migration towards urban areas by administrative division, East and West Pakistan 1951-61 Name of division Number of net migrants Net migrants and per 100 Province 1951 population Male Female Male Female East Pakistan +247825 +111548 +21.63 +14.68 1. Rajshahi + 9129 + 9883 + 4.06 + 5.61 2. Khulna + 149083 + 27810 +26 .73 +24.47 3. Dacca +131688 + 65596 +31.19 +23 .49 4. Chittagong + 57925 + 8259 +18.40 + 4.33 West Pakistan +739820 +508051 +18.74 +18.16 1. Peshawar + 34555 + 26984 +13.29 +14.57 2. D. I. Khan - 5368 - 5665 - 9.63 -12.96 3. Rawalpindi + 24957 + 18562 + 7.46 + 7.65 4. Sargodha +107049 + 67090 +14.15 +20.05 5. Lahore 91058 + 66243 +10.31 + 9.33 + 6. Multan + 79217 + 52153 +22.98 +18.00 7. Bahawalpur + 43718 + 39942 +39.24 +46.01 8. Khairpur + 15285 + 13913 + 7.26 + 8.40 9. Hyderabad + 85262 + 59952 +32.85 +28.25 + 0. quetta 2775 + 1249 + 3.12 + 2.51 1. Kalat - 2204 - 875 - 8.00 - 4.18 2. Karachi +263515 +168503 +42.77 +36.99 696 URBANIZATION AND PUBLIC HOUSING IN SINGAPORE Stephen H.K. Yeh Research Associate Research Fellow Population Research Center Economic Research Centre University of Chicago University of Singapore 1. This paper briefly reviews the history of urbanization in Singapore with respect to its problem of shelter, summarizes the recent developments in public housing and some resulting changes in population distribution, housing conditions, and household structure. 1/ Population Growth and the Problem of Shelter 2. The history of Singapore's urbanization shows the inter- action of two demographic movements: immigration and natural increase. Migration was the main factor for the island's population growth from the 19th Century until World War II, with immigration from China reaching a series of peaks between 1880 and 1914. During the war there was no real immigration to speak of, and since 1947 immigration has ceased to be the most effective component of Singapore's population increase. 3. While immigration contributed to the rapid growth of Singapore's population in the early part of the Century, natural increase was low because of high death rate and extreme imbalance of sex ratio of the migratory groups in favor of males. As time went on, rising standards of public health and medical technology caused the death rate to decline sharply while earlier immigration policy to admit more females created a more balanced sex ratio which in turn contributed to higher marriage and birth rates. Therefore, the natural growth rate took on increasing significance in the population inflation as the volume of immigration declined. In twenty years the population of Singapore has more than doubled itself, from 938,000 in 1947 to 1,446,000 in 1957 and is estimated to be 1,977,000 today. What is the outlook for the immediate future? Despite the decline of. crude birth rate by about one third in the last ten years the picture cannot be overly optimistic because the natural population growth rate in Singapore is changing from one of the highest in the world to a moderately high one: at the current birth and death rates the population will still double within the next thirty years.2/ 4, But the full impact of demographic pressure on the demand for shelter cannot be fully realized by considering the mere weight of 697 total population. Just as importantly, a sustained high rate of natural increase produces a very young age distribution. When approximately 43 per cent of the population is found in the age group of 0-14, it is not difficult to infer what this means to the size of family and household, not to mention the general dependency burden. Marriage rate is another factor worthy of note. It is true that the average age at marriage in Singapore has been rising and the marriage rate is low largely because of the young age distribution, nevertheless it is estimated that about 8,500 marriages currently take place each year.3/ Given the already congested urban conditions and the rapidity with which children arrive, many if not most of the newly married couples would soon need separate residence arrangements and thus providing one more index of housing needs. 5, The growth of slums and the commercialization in Singapore came hand in hand during the late 19th Century. As the island gained prominance as the main commercial center of Southeast Asia, it attracted, mostly from China, thousands of migrants seeking employment in Singapore and its neighbouring territories. These early immigrants were largely poor males who had little intention of staying permanently. One consequence of this was their overwhelming concentration in the city proper and compounding the housing problem. When the sex ratio improved with the arrival of large number of Chinese women labourers in the 1930's, more and more temporary migrations changed into permanent settlements and all the characteristics of slum living became fully pronounced. As the population continued to expand after the War, Singapore not only has one of the most overcrowded slums in the world but also large squatter settlements encircling the central city area. Before the start of the current public housing programme in 1960, there were at least a quarter of a million persons living in badly degenerated slums and another as is people in squatter areas who urgently needed rehousing. 6. Singapore is an island of 225 square miles of low lying land and foundation is poor in many places. With the present population the overall density is nearly 900 persons per square mile, but this figure is misleading since portions of the land is not suitable for building and more importantly, the population is very unevenly distributed throughout the island. The 1947 census showed that 72 per cent of the population were living in the city area, with a density of 16,000 persons per square mile. In 1957, 62 per cent of the population concentrated on the same city proper of 38 square miles, yielding a density of 24,000 persons per square mile. As will be seen in later discussion, the trend towards greater density in the urban area has continued but with some important cnanges from the pattern of 10 years ago. 7. Slum formation is inevitable for any country undergoing urbanization. However, the colonial administration in Singapore did very little to ease tie housing shortage which multiplied with the 698 population, the resulting pattern of urban growth was consequently unplanned and haphazard. Meanwhile, without relief from public housing and unable to afford dwelling units built by private contractors, most of the low-income population either squeezed into the already crowded facilities or joined the ranks of squatters. Extreme housing shortage led the government into rent and eviction controls in 1947, which had the adverse effect of landlords' allow- ing their buildings to deteriorate and at the same time took advantage of the demand for accommodation by further sub-dividing rooms and cubicles to make space for more tenants. 8. The degree of overcrowding and characteristics of slum dwellers have been demonstrated by several earlier surveys.4/ Since large scale urban renewal in Singapore has yet to be implemented we could assume that the conditions described by these studies have remained essentially the same. The 1954 survey of low-income inhabitants in the central city area showed that 84 per cent of households studied occupied accommodations consisting of one room or less.5/ At about the same time another investigation of a densely populated area found that over half of the respondents lived in cubicles with an average size of 103 square feet.6/ Fully one third of these cubicles had no window, and sanitary conditions were often appalling. Similar observations were made by the U.N. Technical Assistance Team which visited Singapore in 1963.7/ 9. There is much less systematic information about attap squatter settlements, whose living conditions are somewhat different but no better than that of the slum dwellers. It is estimated that 30 per cent of all the households in Singapore live in attap or zinc-roofed, semi-permanent type of dwelling units, the overwhelming majority of whom are presumed to be squatters. Needless to elaborate, the sprawl of squatter settlements impedes development and discourages urban enterprise. Even today it is often a physical impossibility to eject rural squatters on private land because they have no place to go. Singapore squatters demand very high prices for possession,. thus attracting more of the same by its success. Resettlement by the government so far has been a slow and difficult process, but progress is being made. Recent Trends in Public Housing 10. The first official attempt to tackle housing shortage in Singapore dates back to 1927 in the formation of Singapore Improvement Trust (SIT); which was ineffective in the alleviation of the housing shortage. When the present government took office in 1959, a new Housing and Development Board (HDB) was created to replace SIT, with considerably more funds and legal power to deal with housing and other related problems. In 1960 HDB estimated that 80,000 new homes would be needed to correct the existing deficiency from overcrowding, 20,000 units for central area redevelopment, and 47,000 units to keep up with population increase over a ten-year period of 1961-70.8/ 699 In order to fulfill the total requirements of 147,000 units in ten years, a building rate of 14,000 dwelling units a year has to be maintained. It was estimated that approximately 2,500 units a year would be constructed by private sources for middle and upper-income groups, while the remaining 11,500 units a year would be built by the government for the majority of the population whose income is low and whose need for rehousing desperate. 11. Therefore, two five-year programmes (1961-65, 1966-70) were formulated by HDB to match the housing requirements. The first five-year plan called for the completion of 51,000 units by the end of 1965, but the government exceeded the target by constructing 54,400 units. At the end of 1966 a total of 65,000 public flats were built; these along with the old SIT units house about 540,000 people in Singapore - nearly 28 per cent of the island's total population.9/ Because of the public housing programme the building rate in Singapore has now reached 11 permanent dwelling units per thousand inhabitants per annum, the highest in Asia and one of the highest in the world. 12. The completion of the first-year plan took care of the large backlog of applications waiting for public housing and brought relief to housing demands due to population increase. Now most of those desiring government flats can obtain them within short notice and some reduction of extreme overcrowding in the city area has taken place. Construction took place in the building of estates in the form of multi-storey flats mostly around the periphery of the central city area, within a radius of five miles from the center. This satellite approach offers access to the center part of town which provides greater economic opportunity and variety of social choices, thus making relocation more attractive. 13. But the problem of shelter is only partially solved. The slums in the central city area have hardly been touched and most of the 350,000 squatters both in urban and rural areas have yet to be resettled. Indeed, these are some of the main features of the second five-year plan currently underway. Under the existing programme the government continues to build residential estates and at the same time undertake large scale urban renewal, which entails the acquisition of practically the whole 3.5 square miles of the old city, demolishing and replanning the area for public and private rebuilding and re- habilitation. At this rate, 40 per cent of the total population will be living in public flats upon completion of the second housing scheme in 1970. Therefore, Singapore is undergoing a rapid social change which is reshaping the character of the island, the communities, and lives of hundreds of thousands of people. Although the full impact of these mass relocations will not be realized for sometime, preliminary data are available to indicate some transitional characteristics which could in whole or part be attributed to the implementation of public housing policies. 700 Urbanization Trends since 1957 14. Continued movement to urban area, massive public housing estates around the periphery of the city, and one third population increase are the three principal factors behind the changes in Singapore's population distribution since 1957. From Table 1 certain demographic aspects of the island's recent urbanization trends can be observed. First of all, the proportion of urban population today is larger than ever before, with a growth rate twice than that of total population increase. 79 per cent of the population is now urban, as compared with 62 per cent in 1957. Over the same period boundaries of urban area were enlarged by 12 square miles to 50, which is 22 per cent of the total 225 square miles. To look at the picture in another way, the rural population in 1966 constituted 21 per cent of the population but occupied 78 per cent of the land, * as compared with 1957 during which 38 per cent of the population was rural who lived on 83 per cent of the land.10/ As a result, gross density of rural area declined slightly in ten years from 3,000 persons to 2,300 persons per square mile, while that for urban area increased rather sharply from 23,500 persons to 30,500 persons per Squsre mile. The current urban-rural density ratio now is therefore 15.4 to 1. 15. Population composition within the urban area itself has undergone some changes. In 1957, 40 per cent of the urban population lived in the central, "old city" area of 3.5 square miles which had a density of some 100,000 persons per square mile. Largely due to the erection of public housing estates in the outer town region, a de- centralization process has occurred in the central area which so far has lost 11 per cent of its population with a corresponding reduction in density. In the mean time, population in the town area has increased by 125 per cent, apparently the result of having absorbed the diffusion from central area, its share of natural increase, plus whatever external immigration and internal migrants from the rural area. 16. With large scale urban renewal the central area will continue to lose population to the town area over the next several years. Boundaries of urban area is not likely to be enlarged much more since most of the public housing estates scheduled to be built are within the current city limits. Density in the urban area will further increase primarily due to natural population growth. The rural-urban movement may reverse somewhat if the government is successful in building a large satellite town with a capacity to accommodate 200,000 people to serve the Jurong industrial estate, which is currently being developed in the rural area. Changes in Household Size and Family Composition 17. Initially it was thought that the availability of large number of new public housing units would promote the splitting up of 701 the congested households and thus reducing the average household size from that of 1957. However, this proved to be not the case. On the contrary, the average household size went up from 4.78 persons in 1957 to 5.81 in 1966, a substantial increase of 22 per cent. Careful study of Table 2 shows two reasons accounting for the increase in household size. First of all, there has been a drastic decrease in single person households by nearly 57 per cent or 34,000 persons. Single person.households constituted only 8 per cent of the total number of households in 1966 as compared with 21 per cent in 1957. Consequently, this decline contributed to a smaller base on which the average household size is computed. 18. It may be argued that the single person household is not a household in the real sense and that heavy decline in the number of such households tended to distort changes in average size. Therefore, average household size was also computed for 1957 and 1966 by excluding single person households, yielding means of 5.78 and 6.24 respectively. This shows that the trend towards larger households size is "real', but the increase is much more smaller (9 per cent from the 1957 average) without the weight of single person households. 19. The rise in household size may also be seen in another way. Close inspection of Table 2 suggests that larger households have greater increase in both proportion and absolute number than the smaller ones: there has been no increase in households of two and three persons, and that the total numerical increase of households of sizes two to six is 22,700 whereas that for households of seven or more persons is 36,000. 20. Therefore, the increase in household size since 1957 is a function of two factors: drastic decline in single person households accompanied by a greater rise in households of larger size. The reduction of single person households can be ascribed to decentra- lization of the central urban area where such households were known to concentrate, changing patterns of immigration, and greater proportion of population married. On the other hand, rapidly expanding public housing facilities have not caught up with the demand for shelter due to population growth, thus resulting in the overall increase in household size. Indeed, it may be hypothesized that prior to 1960 extreme overcrowding had made it physically impossible for many households to become any larger so that very large families had to split into two or more households, and that the implementation of recent massive housing programmes have the transitional effect of enlarging average household size by making available more living space. Since HDB flats offer comparatively good living conditions at low cost, it is no surprise that they have the largest average household size, which in turn reflects a higher proportion of multi-family and extended nuclear family househclds as compared with other types of dwelling unit. =~ 702 21. The decline of single person households has also affected the change of distribution of household types in 1966 from that of 1957, as shown in Table 3. In terms of numbers there has been a reduction in households of unrelated persons for the same reasons as that of single person households and an increase of the other two household types. However, increase in the proportion of multi-family households and households with one family nucleus may not be as big as suggested in the table; if we exclude the single person households and then calculate the relative frequency distribution for 1957 and 1966 there would be no change in the proportion of multi-family households (13.5 per cent in each case) and that the increase in proportion of one family nucleus households is very little (3 per cent). This is consistent with the foregoing analysis, showing that public housing so far has no significant effect in the reduction of households with larger size and more complex structure. 22. In fact, reduction of multi-family households is usually part of the movement towards the conjugal family system and not necessarily affected by housing conditions alone. This type of household may offer certain economic advantages and is culturally preferred by some people in Singapore. Current Level of Overcrowding 23. With the advent of massive public housing developments, it is useful to measure the extent of overcrowding for the Singapore population as a whole and compare between those who live in different types of housing units. For the purpose of general review in this paper, we single out three indicators, i.e. average number of house- holds per unit, average number of rooms per unit, and average house- hold size for analysis.11/ In addition, an index expressing average number of persons per room for each type of unit has been calculated which summarizes the combined effect of all three variables. 24. From Table 4 we could gather an outline of the quantitative aspects of overcrowding today. Improvements of current conditions are needed badly since some 60 per cent of the households still live in attap or shophouses which are characterized not only by high population density but also by deteriorating or inadequate facilities. Slum areas in Singapore are dominated exclusively by shophouses, most of which are of pre-War vintage. Squatters usually live in attap houses which often are not equipped with the kind of amenities required to maintain minimum public health standards. Average density per room for all types of units is still over 5 persons, and the average number of persons per dwelling unit is 12. On the other hand, one could easily imagine how much worse living conditions would be without the relief of public flats, which by comparison constitute a great improvement over most of the other types of dwelling units. Therefore the ultimate test of success of Singapore's public housing programme lies in the renewal of slum areas and resettlement of squatters. Total Rural Urban Central Town Town Total Rural Urban Central Town 703 Table 1 Rural Urban Population, Area, and Density in Singapore, 1957 and 1966 1957 Population Population Area Density (1000) (per cent) (sq. miles) ('000/sg. mile) 1,445.9 100.0 225.0 6.4 554.6 38.4 187.0 3.0 891.3 61.6 38.0 23.5 351.2 24.3 3.5 100.3 540.1 37.3 34.5 15.7 1966 Population Population Area Density (000) (per cent) (sa. miles) ('000/sg. mile) 1,928.8 100.0 225.0 8.6 402.7 20.9 175.0 2.3 1,526.1 79.1 50.0 30.5 312.2 16.2 3.5 89.2 1,213.9 62.9 46.5 26.1 Change, 1957 - 1966 Population Population Area Density (1000) (per cent) (sg. miles) ('000/sq. mile) + 482.9 + 33.4 - + 2,2 - 151.9 - 27.4 - 12.0 - 0.7 + 634.8 + 71.2 + 12.0 + 7.0 - 39.0 - 11.1 - - 11.1 + 673.8 + 124.8 + 12.0 + 10.4 704 Table 2 Size of Household in Singapore 1957 and 1966 1957 1966 Change Size —N('OCO) Per Cent N('000) Per Cent ¡i('000) Per Cent 1 61.4 20.7 27.2 8.2 - 34,2 —- 55.7 2 29.0 9.8 28.3 6.5 - 0.7 - 2.4 3 32.9 11.1 32.6 9.8 - 0.3 - 0.5 4 34,0 11.4 38.8 11.7 + 4,6 + 14,7 5 31.2 10.5 40.0 12.0 + 0.0 + 26.2 6 25.1 9.4 38.2 11.5 + 10.1 + 35.9 7 253.5 7.5 33.6 10.1 + 10.1 + 43.0 8 18.9 6.4 29.0 9.0 + 10.9 + 57.7 9 12.6 4,3 20.8 6.3 + 8.0 + 2.5 10 8.6 2.9 16.5 5.0 + 7.5 +51.5 11 5.4 1.6 9.2 2.5 + 3.0 + 75.4 12+ 11.3 3.5 16.6 5.1 + 5.5 + hi? Total 297.1 100.0 331.6 100.0 + 34.7 + 11.7 Including Single Person households: X = 4.70 X = 5.21 Excluding Single Person Households: = 5.76 X = 6.24 par 705 Table 3 Distribution of Types of Household in Singapore, 1957 and 1966 1957 1966 Change N('000) Per cent N('000) Per cent N('000) Per cent Single Person Household 61.5 20.7 27.2 8.2 -34.3 =55.7 Household of Single Unrel- ated Persons 14.8 5.0 10.2 3.1 - 4.6 -31.1 Household with one family nucleus 188.6 63.5 253.6 76.4 +65.0 +34.5 Multi-family Household 32.2 10.8 40.8 12.3 + 8.6 +26.7 Total No. of Households 297.1 100.0 331.8 100.0 +34.7 +11.8 Table 4 Indices of Overcrowding Per cent Average no. Average no. Average size Average no. of Type of Unit of households of rooms 8 persons per of total , of household in unit per unit room Tenement building, labour line, etc 3.98 2.75 1.36 4,92 9.95 Shophouse or rowhouse 27.05 3.77 2.85 5.05 6.68 Attap or zinc roof house 32.52 2.01 2.43 6.26 5.18 Bungalow, semi-detached house 7.17 2.96 4.40 5.73 3.85 HDB flat 25.42 1.02 2.19 6.40 2.98 Private flat 3.86 1.14 2.86 5.01 2.00 All types 100.00 2.30 2.54 5.82 5.27 90L 707 REFERENCES sions in this paper are mainly supported by data from Gap ore household survey recently completed. For a inary presentation of methodology and some results, see fou Poh Seng and Stephen H.K. Yeh, "The Sample Household Survey Singapore, 1966." Malayan Economic Review, 12 (1967), pp.47-63. 3 summary of fertility trends in Singapore, see Stephen i. Yen, "Some Observations on Fertility Decline in Singapore", - Congress Symposium No. 1: Population Problems in Zleventh Pacific Science Congress, Tokyo (1967), mated at 4.3 marriages per 1,000 population, "Chinese Marriage Patterns in Singapore", w, 901964), No.1, p.104. as reported in 965), No.3, p. 401. of Social Welfare, A Social Survey of h Keng Swee, Urban Income and Housing, t Printing Office (1956); You Poh Seng, vey of Singapore", Malayan Economic Review, 4; and Barrington Kaye, Upper Nankin Street, versity of Malaya Press (1960). Goh Keng Swee, op. cit. pp.68-76. Jarrington Kaye, op. cit., pp.66-67, 83-85. nzrles Abrams, Man's Struggle for Shelter, Cambridge: MIT vress (1964), p.6. apore Housing and Development Board, Homes for the People: 50,000 Up, (1965), p.30. EDB5 units are built in the proportion of 30 per cent one-room, 40 per cent two-room,&30 per cent three-room units. Floor erea is 220, 400, and 540 square feet respectively for the three types of flats. This comparison is based on prevailing rural-urban boundaries in 1957 and 1966. Urban boundaries for 1966 represents an increase of 12 square miles from that of 1957. 4 systematic analysis on housing and urbanization in Singapore is under preparation and will be published by Singapore's Ministry for National Development. 708 Recent Trends and Prospects of Internal Migration in Japan by Toshio Kuroda Chief, Migration Research Section Institute of Population Problems Ministry of Health and Welfare, Japan l. a. Migratory movement of population has been both a product and a precondition of the development of the Japanese industrial economy. Popu- lation pressure in rural areas mainly caused by severe imbalance between high reproductive behavior and extreme difficulty of expanding arable land had forced out-migration continuously. In this way, a century of out-migration had served primarily to prevent the rural population from increasing sharply. This was a major achievement of migration, but it was not a sufficient adjustment in the industrializing society that had to realize some balance between population increase and economic opportunities. 1. b. In recent years fundamental conditions stated above, however, have changed drastically under vital revolution and rapid economic growth. 1. c. Internal migration seems to be entering into a new dimension which should be studied and analysed in much more detail by inter-disciplinary approach. 1. d. Here I would like to give an overall picture of mijration in recent years and point out drastic nature of internal migration which mi; nt suggest emerging new characteristics of internal migration. 2. a. Post-war period of twenty years, 1945-1955, may be divided into two decades rather distinctively characterized by both demographic and eco- nomics standpoints. “he first half was the period of economic recontruction and also of attainment of vital revolution. The second half was characterized by rapid economic growth and great migration of population resulting in phenomenal urbanization. Strictly speaking, migratory movement has been accelerated and concentrated in early five years in 1960's, suggesting later acceleration of migration with time lag than economic growth period. 2. b. Table 1 shows stagnant trend of internal migration in late 1950's and sharp increase in recent five years. 3. a. lMajor stream of migration has been rural-urban type which represent historical continuity of migration pattern, out-migrating from rural, agri- cultural sector into urban, industrial sector or from less industrial to more industrialized areas. Recent heavy migration suggest three basic streams of migration. First is enormous concentration of population into three great metropolitan areas which are recnetly assumed to be amalgamated into a "megalopolis". Three metropolitan areas combined - Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya are central cities of respective mtropolitan areas - absorved seven million and transferred out three million population in five years, 1961-65, and resulted in net gain of four million population in the same period. In- migrants into these great metropolitan areas originated from all parts of the country (see Table 2). 3. b. Second is remarkable concentration of population into local large cities and their suburbs. Those in-migrants are primarily from rural areas 709 not distant from these cities, most of them located in the same prefecture to which the large city belongs. Cities of Hiroshima, Sendai, Sapporo and Fukuoka are mentioned as typical examples. 3 c. Third is a tide of rapid out-migration from giant cities to out- side area which is in general called suburbanization of population. For example, Tokyo ward area (in narrow sense considered Tokyo city) has shifted from net in-migration to net out-migration since 1964. Approximately two- thirds of out-migrants migrated to the neighbouring areas from which they can commute to work from their new residences. Today about one million workers are estimated to commute to work from outside areas. 4. a. Rough figures regarding rural exodus may be useful here to see the relationship between migration and employment structure of industries. Population engaged in agricultural pursuits decreased by four million in ten years, 1955-1965. Rate of decrease has accelerated, reaching 3.4 per cent per year in average during the last five years. Number of members of farming households who migrated out due to occupational, marital and other reasons exceeded one million in 1964, equalling 3.1% of farming household population or 9.0% of agricultural population.l/ 5. a. Phenomenal migratory movements have come to involve all parts of the country. The fact that 25 out of 46 prefectures lost population and 2,574 out of 3,376 minor administrative units, namely 76.2%, shifted to depopulation during the inter-censal year, 1960-1965, tells clearly the powerful influence of migration function. Total land has come to be polarized into two categories of areas. One is characterized by losing and the another by gaining population. If all the prefectures are grouped into 8 blocks, only two blocks show net gain by migration (see Table 3). >. be. It will be readily noticed that polarizing into extreme patterns has been intensified in the latest period, and also natural increase of population has decreased considerably in depopulating blocks which are still highly agricultural and had long been characterized by high fertility level. 6. a. It is broadly recognized by demographers that fertility differen- tial between rural and urban exists, and migration process in association with industrialization and urbanization plays an important function in reducing fertility. Sharp decline in national fertility in Japan has been attained by much quicker decline in rural fertility, and so differential fertility between rural and urban shrank remarkably, indicating no signifi- cant difference between them. Even a little higher rate of practcing contra- ception among rural areas (52.3%) than in large cities (51.5%) recognized by a survey conducted in 1965 throws side light on this problem. 2/ 1/ 1964 Survey Report on Employment Trend in Farming Households, Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, (1966) 2/ Summary of Eighth National Survey of Family Planning, Series No.19, The Population Problems Research Council, The Mainichi Newspapers, Tokyo, p.55 (1965) 710 6. b. An interesting observation in connection with fertility differen- tials between urban and rural areas is that crude birth rates in highly urbanized prefectures began to be higher than those in predominantly agri- cultural prefectures since 1958. At present time Tokyo Osaka prefectures have come to show a little higher birth rates than those in all remaining prefectures. This does not mean the reversal of relationship in fertility between urban and rural, but merely statistical artifact resulting from heavy interchange of younger reproductive ace population between two extremes. 6. c. Much more important effect of migration should be noted. This is a serious effect of heavy migration on the balance of vital rates which may be anticipated from the age selectivity of misration. If natural increase rate starts to be negative in any community, depopulation takes place even without out-migration at all. Continuing net out-migration witn initiation of negative natural increase decisively accelerates depopulation in com- munity. 7. a. Chain reaction process of depopulation through net out-migration and excess of deaths over births is actually taking place in local com- munities. Taking into consideration the -eady availability of relevant statistics, Hiroshima prefecture is taken up as an examole. Out of 105 administrative units (city, town and villa-e) /9, namely 75 per cent, lost population in the latest censal period, 1950-1907. 7. db. Particularly noteworthy is a fact that 33 towns and villages, representing 30 per cent of total, came to revenl revesal or vital rates. Furthermore, all of them are losin; population by net out-mi, ration too. 7e c On the other hand, only lo cities, or 17. or total administrative units, are gaining population through double factors of net migration and natural increase. 7. de Hiroshima prefecture is also a miniature copy of Japan as a whole in the sense that the former hirhlirhts redistributional process of popu- lation by heavy migratory movements within the prefecture. One of the highlights is that a great mirration from north to soutn has been advancing, and consequently bringines about heavier concentration oi population in a few areas facing Seto Inland Sea, of which lliroshiman metrovolitan aren is a principal focus. 7. e. Based on the facts observed in iliroshima prefecture, four patter of population change dy comvination of factors in communities are sur ested as follows. T3 + + + + s population increrse primarily due to net-in migration ‘I2 +. + +. . . population increase primarily caused by natural increase ns Ts + + « « « depopulation primarily due to net-out mi ration T4 +. + + + . depopulation with additional factor of nerative natural increase 7. f. Type Tj is fundamental one characteristic of urban growth. Type T> is now typically represented by great cities like Tokyo and Osaka which are considerably expandir: by suburbanization of population after finishing the process of Type Tj. 7. g. Type T3 is very co non one recognized now among the majority of minor administrative units in Japan. Last one 1 is rather extreme type 711 which is characterized by the acceleration of depopulation. But it should be given attention to the increasing trend of this type as above mentioned in the case of Hiroshima prefecture. 8. a There seem to be some evidences that internal migration in Japan has now entering a new stage. First aspect of the new stage reflects in phenomenal movement of population involving all parts of the country, which is substantively represented by rural-urban pattern. This traditional pattern of migration had a function to seive to the solution of surplus population or disguised unemployment particularly in rural areas in the process of modernization of Japan. 8. b. However, it is only in recent years that Japan could succeed to solve sufficiently this important problem for the nation. Nearly a century was necessary. 8. c. Second aspect may be suggested ty raptély Coclining trond of mobile younger population in near future, which is likely to 2izinich gross migra- tion volume. Remarkable convergence of differential fertility between rural and urban should be remembered in the consideration of young labor force available for urban-industrial demand. Standard deviation calculated on the basis of gross reproduction rates by prefecture shrank from high level of 5.00 in 1930 to 3.76, 2,99, 2.09 respectively in 1950, 1955 and 1960. 3. d. Rapid mechanization of farming tends to creat some surplus labor force in rural areas who can be transferred tc urban industrial sector. However, it will be very limited. 8. e. Both demographic and economic prospects in Japan suggest that migration structure has come to shifting to a new stage in vuicL inter- ruban and inter-industrial mobility will be of more important dimensions among migration benavior. 8. f. Intensive and comprehensive planning of economic, social and regional development cannot be effective without close examination and pros- pective analysis of migration behavior undergoing specifically transitional process featuring the present Japan. 712 Annex Table 1 Migration Volume in Japan, 1954-1965 (,000) Total Year Number Percent of Inter-prefecture Intra-prefecture population 1954 550 6.3 235 315 1955 514 5.8 223 291 1956 486 5.4 212 274 1957 527 5.8 238 289 1958 529 5.8 238 201 1959 536 5.8 244 292 1960 565 6.1 268 297 1961 601 6.1 295 306 1962 658 7.0 330 328 1963 694 7.3 347 346 1964 726 7.5 363 362 1965 738 7.6 369 369 Source: Annual Report of Inhabitant Registration Population. Bureau of Statistics, Prime Minister s Office. Remark: Migrants here are those who shift residence between minor administra- tive units (city, town, village), not including migrants within each minor administrative unit. Table 2 In- and Cut-Migration in Three Great Metropolitan Areas by Origin and Destination, 1961-1965 (,000) Migrants To and From Total lokkaido Tohoku Kanto Chubu Kinki Chugoku Shikoku Kyushu In-migrants Tokyo Metrop. Area 3,729 243 864 571 931 336 182 100 502 Hanshin Metrop. Area 2,243 31 31 234 287 257 410 332 661 Chukyo Metrop. Area 1,038 27 59 141 185 181 61 46 337 Out-migrants Tokyo Metrop. Area 1,907 104 336 342 539 247 96 48 195 Hanshin Metrop. Area 1,372 16 17 204 215 208 210 157 244 Chukyo Metrop. Area 750 12 27 187 140 198 33 22 131 Net In-migrants Tokyo Metrop. Area 1,822 139 529 229 392 89 86 52 307 Hanshin Metrop. Area 871 15 14 a 70 72 Lg 201 175 417 Chukyo Metrop. Area 288 15 32 A 46 45 817 29 23 206 Source: Population of Japan - Regional Distribution and Structure -, Bureau of Statistics, Prime Minister's Office, 1967, p.17. Remark: 4 indicating net out-migration. Tokyo Metropolitan Area is composed of four prefectures including Tokyo Metropolis, Hanshin three prefectures (Osaka, Kyoto and Hyogo) and Chukyo also three prefectures (Aichi, Gifu and Mie). €LL Table 3 Rates of Natural Increase and Social Increase by Block 714 1960 - 1965 1955 - 1960 Block votez Mel Seidl Tota MT oc Number (,000) Hokkaido 133 308 a 176 266 319 53 Tohoku a 28 474 a 692 a 9 575 4 583 Kanto 3,197 1,430 1,768 2,354 1,135 1,219 Chubu 752 922 a 170- 518 829 a 311 Kinki 1,746 821 924 1,219 608 611 Chugoku 73 249 a 323 a 47 282 a 330 Shikoku a 146 137 a 283 a 124 173 A 297 Kyushu a 533 568 a 1,102 a 34 755 a 769 Rates (%) Hokkaido 2.6 6.1 a 35 5.6 6.7 a l.l Tohoku A 2.3 5.1 a 7.4 a 0.1 6.2 A 6.2 Kanto 13.9 6.2 7.7 11.4 5.5 5.9 Chubu 4,2 5.1 a 0.9 3.0 4.7 4 1.8 Kinki 12.4 5.9 6.6 9.5 4,7 4,8 Chugoku A l.l 3.6 e 47 A 0.7 4,0 a 47 Shikoku a 35 3.3 a 6.9 a 2.9 4,1 a 7.0 Kyushu a 4.1 bob a 8.5 a 0.3 5.8 a 61 Source: Population of Japan - Regional Distribution and Structure, Bureau of Statistics, Prime Minister's Office, p.15, (1967) Remark: a indicates decrease. 715 LA MOBILITE SPATIALE DE LA POPULATION URBAINE AU CANADA Jacques LEGARE et Hubert CHARBONNEAU DEPARTEMENT de DEMOGRAPHIE, UNIVERSITE de MONTREAL l. L'extréme mobilité des populations nord-américaines est un fait connu. Les divers types de mouvements ont sans doute varié au cours du temps: les mouvements de prise de territoire se sont transformés en permu- tation d'un logement à un autre dans les limites d'une même municipalité. Parmi la gamme de situations intermédiaires, on trouve l'exode rural ou encore le phénomène d'urbanisation. Le Canada, dès l'après-guerre, était un pays très urbanisé et, exception faite des provinces des Prairies, son degré d'urbanisation a assez peu varié au cours de la décennie 1951-61. Devant une telle situation, la question se pose de savoir si les citadins d'aupurd'hui sont devenus sédentaires. 2. Le recensement de 1961 permet de répondre à cette interrogation. A un échantillon de 20% des ménages conçu de façon à représenter toutes les personnes âgées de 5 ans et plus et faisant partie de ménages autonomes, on a posé, entre autres, la question suivante: "habitiez-vous ce logement, il y a 5 ans, le 1er juin 19567" Malgré les lacunes de l'échantillon dues en partie au fait que les ménages collectifs(1) en furent exclus, nous sommes en mesure d'évaluer les divers genres de mouvements de la population urbaine du Canada et de ses principales régions. (2) (1) Il s'agit de ménages comme les institutions, les hôtels et les grandes maisons de chambres. (2) Source: Recensement du Canada, 1961. Echantillon. Caractéristiques générales de la population migratrice et non-migratrice. Bulletin 4.1-9, Bureau fédéral de la statistique, Ottawa (1965). 716 IMPORTANCE NUMERIQUE DE LA POPULATION MIGRANTE 3. Spécifions d'abord que nous ne nous intéresserons ici qu'aux popu- lations urbaines, celles-ci étant formées essentiellement par les habitants des régions mé*-. rlitaines et des autres agglomérations de 1 000 habitants et plus. Les deux nrincinales provinces du Canada, le Québec et l'Ontario, sont très fortement urb -ées (Tableau 1) et, vu l'importance de leur popu- lation totale, sont d'un grand poids dans le degré d'urbanisation de l'en- semble du pays. La question posée au recensement nous permet de comptabi- liser le nombre de personnes qui, au cours de la période 1956-61, avaient emménagé dans un logement différent de celui qu'ils habitaient en 1956. Ce concept suppose aussi que les gens ont pu effectuer plus d'un déplacement au cours de la période étudiée. Sauf exception pour la région Atlantique qui est peu peuplée, plus de la moitié des citadins avaient changé de loge- ment au cours de la période quinquennale 1956-61. On pourrait croire à première vue que ce taux de mobilité est fonction du degré d'urbanisation des régions ou tout au moins de l'augmentation du taux d'urbanisation au cours de la période étudiée, d'autant plus que c'est dans les Prairies que cette augmentation fut la plus forte. Nous verrons que ce facteur compte pour assez peu. - DEPLACEMENTS SELON LE GENRE D'HABITAT ANTERIEUR 4. La population des villes du Canada ne comprenait en 1961, parmi les personnes ayant changé de logement au cours des cing années antérieures, qu'une trés faible proportion d'individus qui habitaient encore la campagne en 1956: 7% pour l'ensemble du pays et a peine 10% dans la région qui a vu son taux d'urbanisation croître le plus (Tableau 2). D'autre part, les mi- grants venus de l'étranger ont aussi une importance assez réduite puisque les ordres de grandeur des taux sont assez semblables à ceux des ruraux canadiens. Nous sommes donc en présence de mouvements urbains: près de 85% des citadins de 1961 qui se sont déplacés au cours de la période étudiée habitaient déjà des milieux urbains en 1956. Il s'ensuit donc que même si dans les villes du Canada, on est en présence d'une population très mobile, la majeure partie de celle-ci n'aura sûrement pas les problèmes d'adaptation des ex-ruraux et des Néo-Canadiens. Certes, pour bien apprécier les problè- mes qui se posent à ces migrants, il y aurait lieu de connaître les motifs de leur déplacement: seules des enquêtes approfondies pourront apporter quelques éclaircissements sur ce sujet. Il serait aussi intéressant de pou- voir analyser un tableau à double entrée formé des villes de départ et d'ar- rivée distribuées selon la taille, mais les tableaux statistiques publiés jusqu'ici ne nous permettent pas un tel raffinement d'analyse. Enfin, une autre variable importante dans l'analyse des mouvements de population, c'est la distance parcourue par les migrants. Même si la statistique nous empê- che d'apprécier directement ces distances, une esquisse très parlante se dégage des tableaux classant les migrants selon le genre de mouvement. 717 MOBILITE SELON LE GENRE DE DEPLACEMENT 5. Nous avons déjà vu plus haut que les migrants venant de l'étranger formaient une partie infime de l'ensemble des personnes qui s'étaient dépla- cées. La plupart venaient d'Europe ou tout au moins étaient nés en Europe: 75%. Les retours de Canadiens de naissance constituaient environ 17% de la migration extérieure (sauf dans la région Atlantique où ils représentaient 45%: 11 s'agit là cependant de nombres absolus relativement petits). 6. En raison de l'étendue du pays, on peut considérer qu'un mouvement interprovincial sera un mouvement de longue distance, même si la dimension des provinces varie beaucoup. Bien plus, un mouvement intra-provincial sera souvent plus long qu'un mouvement interprovincial vu qu'au Canada le peuple- ment s'est fait dans un étroit corridor le long de la frontière des Etats- Unis. Malgré toutes ces difficultés d'appréciation, une constatation ‘se dégage clairement de l'analyse des mouvements interprovinciaux. L'Ontario est une province "frontière" pour les migrants: d'une part, moins de 15% des migrants de l'est (Québec et région Atlantique) vont au-delà de l'Onta- rio vers l'ouests d'autre part, moins de 10% des migrants de la région de l'Ouest vont au-delà de l'Ontario vers l'est. Quant aux ex-Ontariens, ils se partagent ainsi: 60% vont vers l'est et 40% vers l'ouest. Malgré les moyens de communication modernes, l'énormité des distances canadiennes provoque fatalement des barrières difficiles à franchir. Remarquons qu'il s'agit là encore de petits nombres de migrants: moîns de 7% de l'ensemble. 7, La majorité des citadins qui ont changé de logement au cours de la période étudiée l'ont donc fait dans les limites de leur province de rési- dence en 1956, et même la plupart du temps sans changer de municipalité. En 1961, 30% des citadins du Canada, quoîque résidant dans la même ville qu'en 1956, n'habitaient plus le même logement que cinq ans plus tôt. (Tableau 3). Plus de 50% des déplacements se font donc sur de très cour- tes distances. Bien plus ce nombre est une sous-évaluation de la réalité, puisque beaucoup se déplacent d'une municipalité à l'autre à l'intérieur des zones métropolitaines. On constate par exemple que plus de 45% de la population de la zone métropolitaine de Montréal s'était simplement dépla- cée, au cours de la période quinquennale étudiée, à l'intérieur de sa propre zone métropolitaine. (3) La statistique nous permet aussi d'étu- dier, quoique de façon pas toujours très satisfaisante, le mouvement du noyau urbain vers les banlieues. (3) Il s'agit là d'un cas quelque peu extrême étudié de façon détaillée în Charbonneau H. et Légaré J., L'extrême mobilité de la population urbaine au Canada: l'exemple de Montréal entre 1956 et 1961. A paraître dans Revue de Géographie de Montréal, (1967). 718 CONCLUSION 8. Bien que le mouvement des campagnes vers les villes soit de moins en moins important au Canada en raison du degré élevé d'urbanisation, les Canadiens n'en demeurent pas moins une population extrémement mobile, dont les déplacements s'effectuent surtout sur de courtes distances. Ceci peut s'expliquer en partie de deux fagons: les gens aiment changer de logement et surtout essaient d'adapter au mieux la dimension de leur logement à la dimension de leur famille. Précisons cependant qu'il n'y a pas au Canada de véritable crise du logement, ce qui est certainement un élément majeur de l'ampleur de ces mouvements de citadins. 9. Nous n'avons examiné ici que le cas des individus qui avaient emménagé à la ville. Il est aussi intéressant d'étudier le cas de ceux qui quittent les villes. Or phénomène très important, non seulement l'exode rural a peu d'ampleur, mais il ne suffit même plus à compenser pour le mouvement inverse vers les campagnes. (4) Une nuance importante se dégage à propos de ce mouvement: si la majorité des ruraux qui émigrent vers la ville proviennent du monde agricole, les urbains qui retournent en milieu rural ne s'établissent pas dans les fermes. Une étude par âge nous éclai- rera beaucoup sur l'avenir de cette tendance. I1 s'ensuit donc qu'il ne faudra plus compter sur le mouvement rural-urbain pour voir augmenter le degré d'urbanisation au Canada. La principale composante de cette future évolution sera l'immigration étrangère, puisque 90% des étrangers se dirigent vers les villes. Or il s'agit là d'un des rares mouvements qui puisse être contrôlé par l'Etat. Celui-ci saura-t-il utiliser son pou- voir à bon escient? (4) Certes, l'échantillon est-il en partie biaisé par rapport à cette caractéristique, beaucoup de ruraux s'établissant dans des logements collectifs lors de leur arrivée à la ville. Mais malgré celà, la tendance est renversée. Tableau 1 - CARACTERISTIQUES DE LA POPULATION DU CANADA ET DE SES PRINCIPALES REGIONS EN 1961 CANADA Région (a) Région du Centre Région de 1'Quest ?) Atlantique Québec Ontario Population totale 18,238,247 1,897,425 5,259,211 6,236,092 4,845,519 Population urbaine 12,700,390 944,454 3,906,404 4,823,529 3,026,003 Proportion d'urbains (%) 69.6 49.8 74.3 77.3 62.4 Population urbaine âgée de 5 ans et plus et n'habitant 51.7 40.0 51.5 51.5 56.0 pas le méme logement qu'en 1956 (%) (a) (b) La région Atlantique comprend les provinces de Terre-Neuve, Ile-du-Prince- Edouard, Nouvelle-Ecosse et Nouveau-Brunswick. La région de 1'Ouest comprend les provinces du Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta et Colombie-Britannique de méme que les Territoires du Nord-Ouest et du Yukon. 61L Tableau 2 - POPULATION URBAINE EN 1961, AYANT CHANGE DE LOGEMENT ENTRE 1956 et 1961, SELON LE GENRE DE RESIDENCE EN 1956 (%) Genre de CANADA Région Région du Centre Région de l'Ouest résidence Atlantique ‘ Québec Ontario TOUS GENRES 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 AU CANADA 92.4 97.3 95.2 89.1 92.7 — urbain 85.4 85.9 90.0 84.0 81.6 2 - o — rural 7.0 11.4 5.2 5.1 11.1 A L'ETRANGER 7.6 2.7 4.8 10.9 7.3 Tableau 3 - REPARTITION DE LA POPULATION URBAINE EN 1961 SELON LE GENRE DE MOUVEMENT ENTIRE 1966 ot 1961 (x) (%) CANADA Région Région du Centre Région de l‘Ouest Atlantique Québec — Ontario POPULATION URBAINE AGEE DE 5 ANS ET PLUS 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 N'ayant pas changé de logement 48.3 60.0 48.5 48.5 44,0 Ayant changé de logement 51.7 40.0 51.5 51.5 56.0 — AU CANADA MEME 47.8 38.9 49.0 45.9 51.9 - dans la même ville 30.2 23.7 32.4 29.9 29.8 - d'une municipalité 3 l'autre 17.6 15.2 16.6 16.0 22.1 = dans 19 máne 13.7 9.9 14.8 12.9 14.6 province 3. , , * 4 - tur Pue province 3.9 5.3 1.8 3.1 7,5 = DE L'ETRANGER 3.9 1.1 2.% 5.6 4.1 722 Notas Sobre El Crecimiento Demografico Y La Urbanizacion de Panama Por Hildebrando Araica A. Jefe Del Departamento de Estudios Economicos Y Sociales De La Direccion de Estadistica Y Censo De La Republica de Panama Durante los años que transcurren de la presente década, Panamá ha venido siendo testigo de discusiones que giran al- rededor del crecimiento demografico, los problemas que éste plantea y esporâdicamente se ha abordado el tema de las me- didas a tomar en este respecto. El fenémeno en si ha sido muchas veces tratado de enmarcar aritméticamente, perdiéndo se asi de vista aspectos importantes que rozan disciplinas tan variadas como la sociología, economía, medicina, etc. Lo corriente ha sido que el trabajador social, el economis- ta, el agronómo, el planificador, el médico, etc. aplique su propia óptica intentando despejar independientemente va riables de un problema cuya naturaleza debe ser antes bien estudiada y comprendida. La importancia de los estudios sobre población viene siendo cada vez mejor reconocida desde el momento en que los objetivos y metas de distinto orden se relacionan directa o indirectamente con las necesidades y aspiraciones de bienes- tar del hombre. Son estas necesidades y aspiraciones crecien tes convertidas en verdaderos agentes catalíticos gracias a la ampliación y difusión de modernos canales de comunicación los que han provocado también en el Istmo un nuevo enfoque de nuestros problemas, que por lo demás son típicos de los paí- ses que se mueven en las etapas iniciales del desarrollo eco nómico. El interés que suscita en nuestro medio el "problema de población" es en algunos casos el resultado de un efecto re- flejo de la preocupación que se siente en otras partes del mundo afectadas por grandes calamidades y dificultades formi dables, cuya intensidad se atribuye parcialmente a un excesi vo incremento demográfico. Así se ha incorporado al léxico la incorrecta expresión "explosión demográfica" tan en moda en todas partes. En este respecto es oportuna la observación del Ingeniero Jorge Arias B., ex-Rector de la Universidad de San Carlos de Guatemala cuando expresa el riesgo que envuel- ve la denominación de explosión al fenómeno del alto creci- miento de la población. Señala el Ingeniero Arias en su es- tudio sobre "La población de Centroamérica y sus perspecti- vas" presentado a la Reunión del Grupo de Estudios sobre Con servación Humana en América Central (1966) que "un proceso explosivo se asocia con el desarrollo repentino de una fuer za o una expansión súbita, y por consiguiente se asocia más con un impulso que actúa por un corto tiempo, que con una fuerza que actuando en forma continuada produce un movimiento acelerado". Pocas veces, sin embargo, el interés antes men- cionado se ha traducido en esfuerzos por comprender las impli caciones de la composición por edad de la población, su dis- tribución urbana y rural y otras variables básicas en la for mulación de una política demográfica. 7 723 Hasta cierto punto, no obstante, parcce ser que en el caso panameño el despertar que se advierte en esferas vincu ladas a la programaciôn del desarrollo en alguna forma está relacionado con el hecho de que Panamá está enclavada en la región que registra tasas de crecimiento demográfico más ele vadas del mundo, Las cifras disponibles señalan elocuente- mente la participación de Panamá en el proceso demográfico más importante que ha conocido Latinoamérica, y en particu- lar América Central y el Caribe en el Siglo XX. Cabe seña- lar que la población del Istmo se triplicó entre 1911 y 1960 y en sólo la década del 50 creció en 270 mil personas, o sea, que aumentó en 10 años una cantidad de habitantes que en 1960 era casi igual a la enumerada en la Ciudad de Panamá, Capital de la República. El "explosivo" crecimiento de la población panameña obe- dece, como en otros países del tercer mundo, al excedente de los nacimientos sobre las defunciones. Como es bien conoci- do ya, este superávit creciente de vidas responde a la eleva da y persistente fecundidad asociada a una mortalidad en des censo lograda a través de significativos esfuerzos realiza- dos principalmente en materia de salud pública en el último cuarto del siglo. El descenso pronunciado de la mortalidad panameña se identifica con un progreso llegado de ultramar. Es algo logrado mediante la importación de medicamentos, téc nicas y conocimiento. La lucha sostenida contra la muerte ha prolongado la duración de la vida hasta casi los 60 años y evitado un gran número de muertes de infantes. Las enor- mes realizaciones en esta materia no estuvieron sin embargo, correlacionadas a transformaciones que caracterizan a un vi goroso proceso de desarrollo económico. La experiencia nues tra es típica de los países en desarrollo y demuestra una evolución diametralmente opuesta a la conocida por países in dustrializados que disfrutan de un nivel de vida elevado y cuya mortalidad disminuyó respondiendo a un complejo de fac- tores relacionados estrechamente con el progreso técnico. A la ruptura de las tendencias de la fecundidad y la mortalidad mencionadas es que se debe la aparición de la po- pular frase "explosión demográfica", Esta expansión nunca antes conocida ha producido lógicamente una creciente preocu pación, ya que en algunas zonas ha demostrado tener caracte- rísticas de freno al desarrollo incipiente. La documentación estadística permite comprobar que el efecto inmediato de una fecundidad alta y constante es una frecuencia significativa- mente elevada de niños respecto al total de la población que no contribuyen directamente a la producción de bienes y ser- vicios, pero que sí presionan los servicios públicos y se ha cen presentes en el consumo. La alta fecundidad, que contri buye a mantener un también alto ritmo de crecimiento de la po blación, que en nuestro país es del orden de 3% por ado, ha- ce imprescindible una dotación de inversiones para alcanzar un nivel de producción tal que asegure por lo menos que el ni vel de vida no disminuya. Conviene tener en cuenta, por otra 724 parte, que no hay nada inherente intrínsecamente al más rá- pido aumento de la población que genere una mayor oferta de recursos para la inversión. Los problemas, pues, que por su magnitud se hacen más evidentes en las ciudades, como son los vinculados al patrimonio de viviendas, transporte, alum- brado, educación, empleo, etc. en cierta forma no son más que reflejos de un fenómeno que ha venido siendo presenciado indiferentemente y sobre el cual es necesario desarrollar una investigación sistemática, franca y exhaustiva. Hasta época reciente era muy difícil citar cifras sobre el volumen y dirección de las migraciones interiores y mucho más presentar datos fidedignos sobre las características de la migración. Mucho de lo poco escrito y de lo que se discu te sobre migración interna descansa en observaciones empíri- cas y en meras conjeturas. Son los censos de Población de 1950 y 1960, y especialmente este último, los que han permi- tido asomarse a observar el fenómeno con más rigor científi- co. Las informaciones disponibles señalan, por ejemplo, que por razón de una fecundidad más baja y también por la llega- da de inmigrantes jóvenes, cuya mayoría se concentra entre las edades 15 y 40, la población urbana presenta una estruc- tura por edad sensiblemente diferente a la población rural. Las distribuciones por edad de la población urbana muestran una proporción menor de niños (38.2% -vs - 47.0%) y una ma- yor cantidad de gente adulta y anciana. Como cabe suponer, la carga social que debe soportar la población potencialmen te activa (la comprendida entre 15 y 65 años de edad) es en tonces relativamente menor a la que debe sostener este gru- po de habitantes en el área rural. La carga de dependencia (1) es, en efecto, igual a 81% en el caso de la población urbana y de 109% en la población rural. En general, la población que emigra del campo a la ciu dad concentra a un grupo proporcionalmente muy importante de jóvenes solteros comprendidos en categorías de edades par ticularmente productivas económicamente. Estas personas están en posesión de posibilidades mayores de adaptación a nuevas condiciones de vida, fundamentalmente de trabajo y vi vienda. Esta adaptación parece adoptar las formas de verda- deras estrategias de supervivencia en las ciudades cuando el mantenimiento de lazos primarios de parentesco entre los mi grantes nuevos y los establecidos permite atenuar los pro- blemas del desempleo urbano que puede adquirir entonces dis tintas modalidades de sub-empleo. (1) La carga de dependencia es la razón, expresada en porcen taje, del número de niños menores de 15 años de edad más el total de habitantes de 65 años y más, a la población 15 a 64 años de edad. 725 La más alta frecu:ncia del celibato, la más tardía edad matrimonial y la menor fecundidad suelen ser nombrados como factores que concurren al resultado de familías de tamaño menor en las ciudades que en el campo. Es indudable que en Panamá también influyen tales factores, pero la diferencia en el tamaño medio de la familia urbana y la rural (4.4 -vs -4.9) en 1960, pone de relieve un rasgo especial de la ur- banización panameña según el cual es baja la proporción de transformación de familias de orientación en familias de pro creación. Aparentemente las migraciones de familias rurales completas es importante, aparte de que parece existir un me- canismo que asegura la supervivencia del migrante rural que se traslada a las ciudades solo, incorporándose a hogares de familiares o amistades. También cabe destacar que en las ciudades se concentra la población con mayor nivel de educación y en ellas el nivel de analfabetismo es notoriamente más bajo que en el resto del país. El Censo de 1950 registró un analfabetismo urbano del orden de 7%, mientras que en las zonas rurales ascendía a 43%. Diez años más tarde, el analfabetismo de la República ascen- día a 22%, siendo de 6% en el área urbana y de 35% en las zonas rurales, sin contar a la población indígena del país. Las cifras anteriores parecen reflejar los esfuerzos hechos para proporcionar escuelas y maestros a las zonas urbanas a un ritmo por lo menos igual al crecimiento de la población de las ciudades. Esta acción parece continuar en el estable- cimiento de escuelas primarias que entre 1961 y 1965 aumentó un 25% en las áreas urbanas, en contraste con un aumento de 14% en las zonas rurales. La información estadística que posee el país permite ad vertir que una proporción importante de los individuos que emigran a las ciudades comparados con los habitantes de és- tas, resultan tener una preparación académica notablemente in ferior y consecuentemente están menos calificados para el tra bajo. Por ejemplo, la población de la Ciudad de Panamá que declaró haber vivido siempre allí, tenía a fines de 1960 un 40% con por lo menos un año de enseñanza secundaria aprobado, La situación para la población inmigrante era sensiblemente inferior, ya que la proporción señalada disminuía a 28% y si se considera a la población inmigrante con menos de un año de residencia en la ciudad, la proporción sólo llega a valer 20%. Es bien conocido, por otro lado, que existen diferencias marcadas en los niveles de fecundidad y mortalidad en los sec tores urbanos y rurales. Toda una serie de factores económi- cos, sociales y de otro orden, cuya enumeración prolongaría demasiado esta exposición, contribuyen a determinar un nivel de fecundidad más bajo en el área urbana que en la rural. El examen de uno de los Índices más populares, la tasa de nata- lidad, permite apreciar una diferencia de casi 6 puntos ente 726 las tasas de nacimientos de las Áreas urbanas y rurales en 1964 (36.5 por mil -vs- 42.6 por mil). En general podría afirmarse que en los años transcurridos de la década del 60, la fecundidad urbana ha sido el 85% de la fecundidad rural, aproximadamente. la observación sistemática de este fenó- meno es lo que ha dado asidero a esperar que una caída de la fecundidad, vendría aparejada con la mayor urbanización. Sin embargo, la experiencia demuestra que desde hace mucho tiempo el país se viene urbanizando sin que hasta ahora las estadísticas señalen para toda la República una disminución de la fecundidad. Existen al parecer factores asociados a puntos críticos que aún no han sido alcanzados por Panamá. Por otra parte no parece improbable que los avances médico- sanitarios hayan influído en la fertilidad de las mujeres compensado así posibles bajas de la fecundidad en parejas más favorecidas económicamente. En cuanto a los niveles de mortalidad se puede constatar que tienden a ser algo meno- res en las zonas urbanas, especialmente la mortalidad in- fantil. En este último caso es mucho más claro que en las ciudades prevalecen tasas más bajas como consecuencia de con diciones mejores que predominan en las zonas urbanas y por la más eficiente asistencia profesional de la madre tanto antes como durante y después del parto. Durante el primer lustro de la década del 60, la mor- talidad infantil urbana ha representado aproximadamente tres cuartos de la mortalidad infantil rural. Existen razones para suponer que la diferencia de mortalidad es mayor, ya que se puede admitir que los registros rurales estén más afecta- dos por omisión. Basta la observación del bajo nivel de la mortalidad infantil rural (menos de 50 por mil nacimientos) para dudar de la bondad del registro. En general, cuando la mortalidad infantil es muy reducida, la importancia de las causas endógenas de muerte aumentan y esto puede comprobarse computando la tasa de mortalidad neonatal (de menos de 28 días de edad) que entonces sobrepasa el valor de la mortali- dad post-neonatal (1 a 11 meses de edad). En el área urba- na la mortalidad neonatal representa dos tercios de la mor- talidad infantil; mientras que en la rural tal relación só- lo vale 44%. Que la Provincia de Panamá presente una morta lidad neonatal superior a la post-neonatal es completamente admisible debido al peso que tiene dentro de ella la Ciudad Capital, pero que ocurra esto en las provincias de Chiriquí, Herrera y Los Santos, en donde el grado de urbanización no alcanza a 25% y donde es evidente que existen condiciones sanitarias inferiores a la Provincia de Panamá, sólo puede ser explicado por deficiencias en el registo de los hechos vitales, en particular de la mortalidad de menores de 1 año de edad. Anteriormente fue señalada la necesidad impostergable 727 de emprender una investigación franca y exhaustiva. En cier ta forma tal investigación ha sido ya iniciada en Panamá. Los seis censos de población levantados, en particuar los de 1950 y 1960, constituyen una riqueza informativa básica de gran va lor. Los 10 volúmenes que integran el programa de publicacio nes del Censo de Población de 1960, por ejemplo permiten enfo car bajo distintos ángulos la situación demográfica panameña. No sólo la velocidad del crecimiento puede ser objeto de exa- men en las publicaciones censales. A la luz de las cifras que contienen es posible conocer otros rasgos importantes ta- les como la dispersión y concentración demográficas, estruc- tura por edades y estado conyugal de la población, volumen y dirección de las corrientes migratorias internas y otros pro= cesos sociales como educación, empleo, etc. - La dinámica de la población panameña puede ser también estudiada a través de estadísticas vitales, que son publicadas regularmente por la Contraloría General de la República, a través de su Dirección de Estadística y Censo. Esta Oficina suministra periódicamen- te datos estadísticos sobre salud y niveles de ocupación y de- socupación de mano de obra y anualmente está publicando el com pendio Panamá en Cifras con comentarios objetivos acerca de la situación demográfica y económica de la República. Estu- dios de carácter descriptivo sobre algunos aspectos de la de- mografía panameña pueden también ser encontrados en el Atlas de Panamá, acompañados de breves, pero valiosos ensayos dedi- cados al análisis de los recursos naturales del país. La Di- rección de Estadística y Censo de la Contraloría General de la República ha contribuído recientemente con publicaciones es peciales que abordan temas vinculados a la fecundidad, morta- lidad, crecimiento de la población y ocupación y desocupación de la población económicamente activa (1). Por otro lado cabe señalar que se han realizado esfuer- zos para obtener informaciones acerca de la incidencia de ca- sos de abortos atendidos en diferentes entidades hospitalarias de la Ciudad de Panamá. Los resultados de dichas investigacio nes han venido señalando indicios de que una relativamente ele vada cantidad de mujeres recurren al aborto como medida anti=- natal, principalmente porque desconocen y/o no utilizan proce- dimientos anticonceptivos eficaces. Cabe anotar finalmente (1) Véase: a)Informe de la Encuesta de Fecundidad de la Ciu dad de Panamá, Mayo de 1966. b) Tablas de Mortalidad de la República de Panama: Agosto de 1966. c) El Crecimiento de la Población Panameña en el período 1950 a 1980. Enero de 1967. d) Ocupación y desocupación en el Area metropoli- tana de Panamá. Diciembre de 1966. 728 que la encuesta de fecundidad efectuada a principios de 1964 a un grupo de mujeres de 20 a 50 años de edad, en la Ciudad de Panamá demostró la existencia de una relación negativa en tre la aceptación general de la anticoncepción y el nivel de fecundidad, Asimismo fue clara la relación entre el nivel de educación y el uso de anticonceptivos, pero en general la men cionada investigación demostró también que los métodos más frecuentemente utilizados son los menos eficaces. Como quie- ra que el estudio en referencia representó sólo a un 30% de la población del país, es evidente la necesidad de extenderlo a otras ciudades y esencialmente al sector rural que es el fo co principal del acelerado crecimiento de la población y en donde no es probable que se obtenga, con base en las estadís- ticas disponibles, en un plazo breve información de utilidad para estudiar las principales variables vinculadas a la fecun- didad, factor del cual está dependiendo básicamente el creci- miento de la población y consecuentemente el ingreso por habi- tante. SUMMARY The Republic of Panama is located within the region of the world with the highest rate of population growth. Same as other under developed countries, under an economic point of view, the great demographic increase has been directly the result of a fast decline in mortality yielded in a cultural and economic context divorced from a correlative technical pro gress and with a high fertility rate prevailing. Because the massive flux of migrants from rural areas to the cities, phenomenon which claims attention and study, the less developed countries have within their frontiers a typical rural-urban dichotomy with analogous characteristics seen when comparisons are made between these countries and those indus- tialized, Through this paper, comparisons were established on the main differentials aspects about structure and dynamics of urban and rural populations of Panama. The simple descrip- tive analysis is culminated with a brief enumeration of sour- ces in order to study panamanian demography and pointing out the requirements of demographic investigation, especially ru=- ral fertility, recognized as a crucial variable. Panamá, 19 de mayo de 1967. 729 MIGRANTS IN THE METROPOLITAN AREAS OF INDIA By . Vatsala Narain* Demographic Training & Research Centre Chembur, Bombay-71 INDIA. i. Conventional index of a country's progress has been its growth of urban population and of its metropolitan cities — population of ons million and over. According to 1961 Census, India has seven such cities. Authorities assert that urban growth in Indias has been visible since the middle of the nineteenth century and has accelerated since the beginning of the present century. Great impetus was provided by the two world wars and by the programme of development since India's independence in 1947. But the 1961 Census has some surprises for students of population. “One of them is the modest rate of urban population growth in the face of rapid growth of total population. Secondly, in a decade of industri=- lization, the tempo of urbanization has not proportionately increased and impression is one of urban stagnation. The urban growth since 1901-1951 is 57 million and during the same period the metropolitan contribution was 7 million. During 1951-61 the urban contribution was 18 million and the metropolitan was 5 million. One of the important reasons attributed to the modest urban growth is change in the definition of urban places adopted in 1961 Census, Despite the foregoing, the extent of metropolitan growth is a matter of interest to students of population and urban sociologists. 2. Generally, there are two main causes of urban growth — the ‘push‘ and the ‘pull’ factors. Push factors relate to population pressures and to unsatis- factory living conditions in rural areas, Pull factors include employment opportunities in urban areas the better services available in and certain attractions of life in cities. Both factors involve international as well as Davis K., The Population of India and Pakistan, Princeton University Press, Princeton K,J., 1951, p.127. *The writer is thankful to Mr. K.S. Seetharam, Research Fellow, Demographic Training and Research Centre, for the help and useful suggestions in the project and the paper. 730 internal migration. 2 Migration generally is a portent of major social change, Many regions and nations that have undergone extensive industrial development have also gimultaneously experienced redistribution of its population and consequent in- evitable change in its composition. The industrial revolution in the West was paralled by a great rural-to-urban migration. Similar experience may be ex- pected in countries that are going through intense technological change. Growth of large metropolitan centers and exploitation of new resources require large inflowing streams of migrants. The migrational process has had a profound effect both upon the areas to which the migrants have flowed and the areas from which they have come. The volume of migrents received in a community may grately exceed the need. The streams originate in communities different from those from which it is desired to draw migrants or the streams may consist of persons with qualifications different from those needed at a given spot and at a given point of time. Only careful analysis of internal migration can reveal the effect of social change on the society and the people. 4. The cumulative effect of migration is that the cities grow rapidly and become focal points of social change in a society. It is observed thet in the process of urbanization the larger cities in the ECAFE region have grown much faster.? This is also true of India. It is not the aim of this paper to reveal the causes of migration but to study the volume and composition of migration and their intercity differences. For the purpose of the paper only three cities of Bombay, Madras and Ahmedabad for which published census material are available have been studied. Bombay and Ahmedabad are situated in Western India and lMadras in the Southeast India. Bombay and Madras have been character- ized as both industrial and commercial cities with their large barbours, although the former has more of these features than the latter. Ahmedabad has been mainly a textile city. All the three cities are capitals of their respective states of Maharashtra, Madras and Gujarat. Bombay has been a million mark city since 1901, Madras reached the stage in 1931, and Ahmedabad in only 1961. United Nations: Report on the World Social Situation, United Nations, llew York, 1957, p.114. See also Lewis John P., 'The Role of Town' in QUIET CRISIS IN INDIA, Asia Publishing House, Bombay, 1962, p.177. 731 TABLE 1 — RATE OF GROWTH OF POPULATION IN SEVEN MILLION CITIES OF INDIA 1901-1961, * Period Bombay Calcutta Delhi Madras Hyderabad Bangalore Ahmeda- bad 1911-21 1.85 0.44 2.45 0.28 -2.12 2.35 2.33 1931-41 2.52 5.65 4.34 1.83 4.51 2.81 6.19 1941-51 4.98 2.45 6.95 4.65 4.18 6.27 3.85 1951-61 3.24 0.27 4.86 1.99 1.02 4,22 : 5.16 *For analysis 1961 Census tables have been used, 5. The foregoing table illustrates the growth of population in the seven metropolitan cities of India since the beginning of the century. The Table 1 clearly illustrates that there is an upward trend in the growth rate and it reached climax for two cities, Calcutta and Ahmedabad in the decade 1931-41 and for other five cities in the decade 1941-51, But in 1951-61 it is observed that there is a sharp fall in the growth rate of as many as six cities except in case of Ahmedabad where the decline, though there is not spactucular. Despite this fact, the unprecedented growth cannot te wholly explained by natural increase (it is partly so due to falling death rate) but may be explained by the rate and volume of net migration to these areas during 1951-51. TABLE 2 - TOTAL GROWTH, NATURAL INCREASE AND NET MIGRATION TO SEVEN MILLION CITIES OF INDIA 1941-51 AND 1951-61 (IN THOUSANDS).? 1941-51 1951-61 City/Period I TG. I TG. Bombay 873 320 1193 573 584 1157 Calcutta 367 164 531 - T5 305 230 Delhi 445 296 741 +491 430 921 Madras 423 111 534 68 245 313 Hyderabad 251 138 389 =-130 251 121 Bangalore 465 123 465 61 230 236 Ahmedabad 142 112 254 105 223 328 3 Rao Bhaskar N,, "Estimates of Net Migration to Metropolitan Areas of India 1941- 21, 1951-61", Research paper (mimeographed), Submitted to Demographic Training & Research Centre, Chembur, Bombay, 1965. J 732 ‘6. As seen in Table 2, the net migration is of highest order during 1941-"1, It is known that migrants are not a random sample of the population and can differ widely from the population both at place of origin and destination. Therefore any assessment of volume of migration will depend first upon the location and second, upon the functions of the city to which the migrants go. Hence the positive and negative factors at places of origin and destination moy vary the volume of migration from city to city. Te In 1961 Census the number of migrants to these three cities is 2.5 million for Bombay, 0.6 million for Madras and 0.6 million for Ahmedabad. They form nearly 64% of Bombay, 37% of Madras, and 48% for Ahmedabad, of total population. There has been a declining trend in the proportion of migrants to the total population in Bombay. It had nearly 85% of total population as migrants around 1921 by 1961 it is reduced to 647%. naliadrogahas a slight increase but is not as great. The decline for Bombay may be/in the following contest. The period 1951-61 saw general economic development in rural India as this period coincides with first two five year plan periods. Huge investments were made irrigational works, community projects and . other rural development programmes which possibly reduced the push factor and caused general decline in rural to urban migration in the country as a whole. The general policy of decentralization of industries followed by Government of India and states may also contribute to this phenomenon. Yet another higher factor is higher contri- bution by the indigeneous urban population through natural increase, making it difficult for migrants to compete for urban jobs. * TABLE 3 — PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF MIGRANTS BY AGE AND SEX 1961, BOMEAY, MADRAS, AND AHMEDABAD. , CITY Bombay Madras Ahmedabad AGE/SEX M F M F M F 0-14 14.5 16.9 12.4 19.9 17.5 34.2 15-19 9.8 11.2 8.9 9.0 8.2 12.5 20-24 12.1 13.1 14.9 14.2 12.3 16.6 25-29 12.6 13.2 15.9 14.9 12.2 11.4 30-34 12.2 11.8 13.4 11.4 12.2 8.6 35-59 32.6 27.2 31.1 25.5 33.9 14.9 60+ 5.2 6.6 3.4 5.1 3.8 1.8 8. It is generally true that migrants are in the young adult age group af 20 to 34. From Table 3 the above pattern is observed in all the three cities. Again in all the three cities there is a higher proportion of children aged 0-14 *Creation of linguistic states may also have deterrent effect on migration by not only making states relatively more homogeneous but also maldng it more difficult for language groups to find acceptance in states other than their own. 733 among the migrants with shorter duration of stay. It declines as duration of stay increases. As a complement, the proportion of older ages tends to go up with increased duration of residence. This is true of both sexes and for all cities, This may be due to the aging of the migrants and also due to the differentials in mortality and out-migrations. 9. A comparison of the distribution of migrants by their duration of stay in the cities shows difference in their pattern. For Madras and Ahmedabad a higher percentage of migrants are of shorter duration of residence in city. This is true for both sexes in these two cities. Both cities show pronounced proportions at durations 1-5 and 6-10 years. Bombay has 20% of its migrants of 1-5 years of duration, while Madras and Ahmedabad 28 and 29 per cent respectively. TABLE 4 ~ MIGRANTS TO BOMBAY, MADRAS AND AHMEDABAD BY THEIR PLACE OF BIRTH, 1961. Place -of Birth Bombay: Other districts of Maharashtra 39.3 Gujarat 16.9 Uttar Pradesh 12.0 Other states 31,8 100.0 Madrass Other districts of Madras 69.6 Andhra Pradesh 9.2 Kerala 8.7 Mysore 7.4 Other states 9.1 100.0 Ahmedabad: Other districts of Gujarat 64.4 Maharashtra 5.8 Rajasthan 9.8 Uttar Pradesh 8.1 Others 11.9 100.0 10. It may be noted from Table 4 that for all the three cities the major share of migrants is from other districts of the state in which the city is located. Considering longer distance migration, the cities reveal that in- migration has been from the neighbouring states. The component of rural-urban 734 migration is as follows: Rural Urban (in thousands) Bombay 1060 533 Madras 369 273 Ahmedabad 418 165 TABLE 5 - SEX COMPOSITIUI OF MIGRANTS BY DURATION OF RESIDENCE IN BOMBAY, MADRAS, AND AHMEDABAD, 1961. Duration Bombay Madras Ahmedabad < 1yr 1528 1240 1150 1-5 yrs 1714 1159 1092 6-10 yrs 1790 1063 1893 11-15 yrs 1749 1083 1157 16+ yrs 2019 1372 1248 All durations 1810 1187 1294 11. Sex composition shows wide differences among cities. In Bombay there are about 1810 male migrants for 1000 females whereas for Madras and Ahmedabad the respective figures are 1187 and 1294, The difference may be due to lack or cost of housing facilities in Bombay for migrants. Table 5 further reveals the sex-ratio by duration of residence in Bombay which follows a definite trend. But Madras and Ahmedabad are fluctuating. The lower sex-ratio for recent migrants in Bombay is attributed to the overall decline in the sex-ratio of recent migrants. * *Zacharioh, K.C., Migrants in Greater Bombay (in press). 735 TABLE 6 — MARITAL STATUS DISTRIBUTION OF MIGRANTS BY SEX AND DURATION OF RESIDENCE IN BOMBAY, MADRAS AND AHMEDABAD, 1961. Males Females N.M. M W.D. NM, M W.D. Bombay: All durations 37.5 57.8 2.7 28.4 59.6 11.6 <1lyr 58.4 39.7 1.8 40.6 49.9 9.6 1-5 yrs 64.1 34.7 1.2 41.9 52.3 5.6 6-10 yrs 50.7 48.1 1.2 40.2 54.1 5.7 11-15 yrs 33.7 64.3 2.0 27.6 63.1 9.4 16+ yrs 13.5 81.6 4.9 9.6 68.4 22.0 Madras: All durations 39.5 55.9 4.8 25,0 61.5 13.5 < 1 yr 53.4 43.0 3.6 34.5 55.7 9.7 1-5 yrs 57.4 39.4 3.2 36.3 55.6 8.1 6-10 yrs 43.7 51.6 4.6 28.1 61.5 10.5 11-15 yrs 34.5 60.2 5.2 22.1 67.3 10.6 16+ yrs 16.6 T6.7 6.7 7.9 66.6 25.5 Ahmedabad: All durations 56.2 41.7 2.1 45.3 48.2 6.5 € lyr 54.7 43.8 1.6 39.2 56.5 4.3 1-5 yrs 41.7 56.2 2.1 31.3 64.4 4.3 6-10 yrs 27.8 69.5 2.7 19.8 73.2 7.0 11-15 yrs 10.4 85.9 5.8 4.3 74.1 21.5 16+ yrs 35.7 63.1 3.2 25.0 65.3 9.7 12, The proportion of single male migrants is much higher in Ahmedabad than in Bombay or Madras. In Ahmedabad 56% of its migrants never married whereas the percentages for Madras and Bombay are 39% and 30% respectively. The same is observed among the females. Of all female migrants in Ahmedabad 45% never- married, but Madras and Bombay have only 25 and 28 per cent single female migrants respectively. If we consider migrants by their duration of residence in the these cities Ahmedabad has a lower proportion of never married 41.7 in 736 1-5, 2.7 in 6-10 and 10.4 in 11-15 years of duration. In Madras and Bombay these proportions are considerably higher. For migrants with duration of residence of 16 and over, the percentage is higher among Ahmedabad migrants than among Bombay and Madras migrants. 13. The educational attainment of the migrants in these cities show that Madras and Ahmedabad have similar level whereas migrants in Bombay have a lower level. Educational attainments for males in Madras is 6.1, Ahmedabad 6.2 and Bombay 4.2. In.case of females these are 3.0, 2.4 and 2.7 respectively. The work participation rate among the migrants in Bombay, Madras and Ahmedabed are T7.4, 70.5 and 71.4 for males and 10.8, 9.6 and 6.9 for females respectively. Bombay shows a higher proportion of workers among migrants and Ahmedabad and Madras do not. This may be clear from the age composition itself, Bombay had only 12% in the age group O-14 other two cities had more than 15% of its popu- lation in this age group. Since females are not generally employed in established industries, their proportion in work force is low and majority of them are house- wives, 14. This brief study has dealt with population growth of metropolitan cities in India, the volume and net migration and only general characteristics of the migrants. This is an advance paper from a larger on-going project on metropolitan areas of India. Therefore, no firm conclusions can be drawn at this stage but some broad patterns are visible. Even this brief study substantiates a few general laws of migration such as age, sex, selectivity and greater pro- portion of shorter distance migrants to the metropolitan cities. 737 EFFECTS OF MIGRATION ON THE GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE POPULATION OF ISRAEL by Roberte Bachi (Hebrew University and Central Bureau of Statistics, Jerusalem, Israel) § le Introduction During the 19 years that have elapsed since independence, Israel has more than trebled its population (from 806,000 in May 1948 te 2,657,000 at the end of 1966). This paper examines how this unusual change in the size of the population (largely due to immigration) has affected its geographical distribution. § 2. Methods for describing the geographical distribution of the population and its changes over time In the following, the methods used in this paper for describing the geographical distribution of the population of Israel and its chan- ges in the course of time, are indicated. Some of these methods may also be of more general interest. ae Densities. In Order to give a first orientation in the study of population distribution, Map 1 has been constructed to show average population density per square km. in the 16 areas into which Israel has been subdivided.(!) The map has been constructed by a new graphical method 2) which enables one to show on the same map, in an accurate way, data for different times (here: 1948 and 1965). (4) 13 subdistricts and three groups of natural regions in the sub- district of Beer Sheva. (2) The method is based on the following principles: a) any number n is represented by a graphical pattern in which the amount of black is proportional to the number n itself; b) the pattern is designed so that it is possible to discern easily between the various pat- terns. The basic series of patterns includes 100 patterns between n = 1 and n = 100. Here, the unit is represented by a small square (of area a); the number 2 is represented by 2 squares; etc. Figures which are whole tens - such as 10, 20, ... — are represented by 738 be Distribution of" population influence." Population densities are va- riant in regard to changes in the system of division of territory 3 , and show generally a very irregular picture of population distribution. These characteristics are connected with the basic density concept, ac- cording to which "influence" of population P, of district j is sup- posed to be actually limited to the area a. bf district j and equi- distributed over it. A different view can be adopted, as in Stewart's method of "population potentials" (4), where "influence" of an individul located in a point of residence j is supposed not to be equidistri- buted over a given area, but to decrease from point Jj to any point i of the territory, with increasing distance d.. between i and j . We have accepted this view, without following Stewart in his defini- tion of population potential in i as n Fy 6 ; ; ; =, 3 , and without using the analogy with potential J= ij in physics, which does not appear as fegentialy for our aim of descri- bing population distribution. J. Yam 6) has developed for that purpose the following formula, which seems to have several advantages 7), 1,2 ... large squares, the area of each being 10a, Zach number n consisting of t tens and u units, is represented by t large scuares and u small squares (see R. Bachi, Graphical Rational Patterns: A New Approach to Graphical Presentation of Statistics. Israel Program for Scientific Translations, Jerusalem, 1967). (3) See 0.D. Duncan, R.P. Cuzzort, B. Duncan, Statistical Geography, Free Press of Glencoe, Illinois, 1961. (4) For the large literature based on the calculation of potentials, see inter alia, the book by Duncan, Cuzzort and Duncan quoted in footnote (3) and W. Isard, Methods of Regional Analysis, New York, J. Wiley, 1960. (5) For simplicity's sake, it is supposed that the population is con- centrated into n inhabited places j , with population P. . (6) J. Yam. Research in Geostatistical Methods. M.A. Dissertation (in Hebrew). Jerusalem, Hebrew University 1966. (7) Among the advantages of the formula: (i) The "influence" decreases with "distance" from j to i, this distance being in relation to a standard adapted to the type of distribution studied; (ii) the difficulty is avoided which is inherent in Stewart's formula - P. that for i = j viz. d,., = O , J_ is not definable; (iii) by ij dij dividing pVi b aVi +, we give a net measure of population 739 , d..\s f(à, ;) = | - (5) | where de is the standard distance a of the population considered in the theoretical case of even distribution - over the territory (in some cases use of population standard distance do may be preferred); k and s are two constants, which will be teken, for practicel purposes, as k=50 and a=2, Then the total influence of the population over any point i of the plane may be calculated as V. = = . pa O If we calculate the"population influence" in the hypothesis of even distribution of the population over territory, a value ai is ob- tained for each point i. Analysis of the values ai shows that they are higher for the central part of the territory and decrease in the direction of peripheral parts. This is true too for "population potentiald', under the hypothesis of even distribution. We may consider therefore that the values ali measure effects of size and shape of territory. If our purpose is to describe the features of the population distribu- tion alone, independent of effects of size and shape of territory, we must eliminate these territorial effects from our values. pli Ratios V. = —— 1 avi seem to be a good instrument for this purpose. If we calculate these ratios for a sufficient number of points, we can design a map of contour lines of "net population influence" Vi which is practically invariant to changes in the way by which the territory is divided. Map 2 shows "net population influence" Vi for Israel in 1961. To render the map more readable, zones between contour lines have been covered by repeated Graphical Rational Patterns (see footnote 2). Ce Synthetic indicators of general characteristics of population distributions In order to make a quick comparison among many population distri- butions, it may be desired to obtain a more coincise picture than with method b. We can summarize characteristics of each population distri- bution into a few parameters (even if in this way we sacrifice much distribution, independent from effects of size and shape of terri- tory (see text); (iv) The overall picture obtained is a rather smooth one, in which major features of population distribution are emphasized and many irregularities are eliminatede 740 detailed information in regard to each distribution) (8). With regard to the distribution of the population of Israel and of many of its sub- groups (see $ 6) the following calculations have been performed: i. as a measure of location, the center of gravity of the population has beer calculated. This center is the point on the plane from which the sum of the squares of the distance from the places of residence of the inhabitants, is minimal. ii, as a measure of dispersion of the population, "standard distance" d or quadratic average of distance between all places of residence of the inhabitants and the center of gravity has been calculatede iid. As two main components of standard distance, standard deviations min go and max gr have been calculated in the two directions in which the population spread is minimal and maximal, respectively (9). All the above values can be described graphically as follows: a cross is drawm on the map, centered at the center of gravity of the population studied. The four arms of the cross lie along the principal axes and are of lengths min o and max o respectively. The lengths of min Gand max o show the dispersion, since de = (min 0)“ + (max g)ê, whilst the comparison of min @ and max G@ gives an idea on the oblongity of the dispersion. Moreover, the axes of the cross lie at an angle < to the original coordinates, thus enabling one to see the main direction of the distribution (which is that of the largest among the two axes of the cross), This method enables us te represent various geographical distributions on the same graph. Map 3 shows the above indicators of the geographical distribution: (a) for the entire population of Israel; (b) separately for the Jewish, Moslem, Christian and Druze population of Israel; (c) for the entire population in the theoretical hypothesis of equidistribution over the entire territory. Map 4 shows yearly shifts in the center of gravity of the Jewish population from 1948 to 1965. (8) See B. Bachi, Graphical Representation and Analysis of Geographical Statistical Data. Bulletin of the International Statistical Insti- tute. 35th Session (Beograd) (in print) and R. Bachi, Standard Distance Measures and Related Measures for Spatial Analysis. Regio- nal Science Association Papers, X, Zuerich Congress, 1962. (9) For methods of calculation: see the works quoted under (8) and Linders, F., Ueber die Berechnung des Schwerpunktes und der Trägheitsellipse einer BevBlkerung. "Metron", XI, 1, 1933. 741 ive Concentration index. Gini's and Lorentz's concentration indices and segregation indices have been widely applied te the study of geogra- phical statistical distributions. Unfortunately, these measures are widely variant in regard to the system of subdivision df the territory. Moreover, they are not sensitive to "geographical" concentration, in that they furnish equal values whether the zones, in which the phenomenon studied is mostly concentrated, are near to each other or distant from each other (ceteris paribus). It appears that these two difficulties can be overcome, by calculating indices of concentration 10 , which are based on the comparison of the cumulative percentage distribution of the pi and the corresponding cumulative percentage distribution of the avi (see above, under b.). $ 3. General features of population distribution in Israel With the help of the tools described in $ 2, we can now analyse the features and changes of the population distribution in Israel. In this $, some general lines, which characterize both the 1948 and 1965 distributions, are indicated as follows, whilst in $ 4 the main changes that occurred between 1948 and 1965 are commented upon. ae The small country of Israel is characterized by strong contrasts between its different zones - arid deserts, green plains, coastal zones and rocky hills. Those contrasts still determine to a considerable ex-— tent the strongest feature of Israel's population distribution, namely: the extreme variability from zone to zone of population densities (Map 1) and “population influences" (Map 2). The two main large population con- centrations around the Tel Aviv industrial-commercial zone and the Haifa harbour appear as dominant features, while the Southern vast desert part of the country, the Negev, has still a comparatively small population (despite the considerable increase described in 8 4). be The above features are expressed in a more synthetic way by Map 3 as follows. The Center of gravity of the total population of Israel is found to lie much more to the North than that of the territory. On the other hand, the standard distance shows that population is far less dispersed on the territory than under the hypothesis of even distribu- tion (in 1961 actual population 54.5 km., even distribution over terri- tory: 105.6 km.). From this point of view, Israel is very much at va- riance with countries of old settlement, like France, Italy, Germany etc. (10) On the method for calculating these indices of concentration, see the dissertation quoted in footnote (6). 742 Research in regard to populations of these countries shows that their standard distances are very similar to those of territory )11). Cc. Features of population distribution in Israel appear to have some- thing in common to those of other countries of relatively new or re- newed settlement. For instance, in countries like the USA, USSR and Argentine, considerable distance has also been found between area center and population center and a very considerable difference has been found between standard distance of population and territorye de In a more synthetic way, the concentration index shows that the population is very heavily concentrated in Israel (81% in 1961), as compared, say, with a country of old settlement like France (1954: 37%) (see the Dissertation quoted in footnote 6). ee The geographical distribution of Jews and Non-Jews in Israel is fundamentally different, and is the result of completely different determinants. Christian and Druze populations are mainly localized in a few natural regions in the Northern and Eastern parts of the country, whilst the Jews are more widely dispersed (see Map 3). Between 1948 and 1966 the Non-Jewish population of Israel has increased from about 156,000 to 312,000, due almost entirely to natural increase. Since im- migration from abroad was almost nil, regional differentials in natural increase not large, and internal migrations very small, the geographical distribution of the Non-Jewish population of Israel remained practically unchanged between 1948 and 1966. § 4. Shifts in the distribution of the population between 1948 and 1965 Despite the fact that the general features of the population distribution, largely dictated by the nature of the country (see § 3), have not changed between 1948 and 1965, very considerable shifts in the distribution of the Jewish population have occurred in this period. The most typical shifts in the distribution of this population have been as follows: a. The increase in population has been general and very strong in all zones of the country (see Map 1). However, this increase has not been even. (11) RB. Bachi: Population Distribution and Internal Migration in Israel, Report submitted to Ford Foundation. Hebrew University, Jerusalem (stencilled), 1965. T43 be Foremost in increases have been the Southern zones (marked by numbers 10, 13, 14, 15, 16 in Map 1), which wer: almost uninhabited at the time of the establishment of the State, and the more Northern zone 1, which also was at that epoch very thinly settled. Ce Besides these zones, the only ones which have had an increase some- what exceeding the average, have been those bordering the big metropoli- tan area of Tel Aviv. A deeper analysis of the data for this area re- veals the usual feature of decrease of population in the inner part of the conurbation and strong increase in the peripheral parts. de Considering the peried 1948-1965 as a whole, the dominant feature in this period has been that of increasing geographical dispersion, or, in other words, of correcting to some extent, the big inequalities in population distribution. es , In another way the same feature can be followed by examining the behaviour of both center of gravity (as given in Map 4) and standard distance for the Jewish population as given in footnote (12). It is seen from this map that the center of gravity of the Jewish population has been continuously shifting to the South from year to year during the period under survey. The features mentioned under (1b) and (c) explain clearly this shift, fe In a parallel way, the larger increase of more peripheral zones as compared to inner zones, explains a second feature which is of paramount importance: the continuous increase of standard distance between 1949 and 1965 (12). ge Increasing population dispersion is considered as an important aim of policy in Israel. Big efforts have been devoted to establish new rural settlements and ‘development towns’ mainly in the Southern and Northern regions and for integrating agriculture, industry and services in rural-urban areas, with a view of decreasing congestion of the popu- lation in central areas and big urban centers, To some extent, the data (12) Standard distances (Ems.) of Jewish population at end of each year 1949: 43.13 1950: 46.9; 1951: ATe65 1952: 47.735 1953: 47.8; 1954: 48.1; 1955: 49.15 1956: 49.9; 1957: 50.6; 1958: 51.0; 1959: 51.3; Census of May 1961: 52.2; 1962: 52.4; 1963: 53.4; 1964: 53.9; 1965: 54.10 . Standard distances (Ems.) of persons employed in industry and Crafts, by year of opening of establishment at present address (Census of Industry and Crafts 1965); up to 1947: 36.8; 1948 - 1955: 46.6; 1956-61: 51.73 1962-65: 51.1. 744 quoted above can be taken to indicate agreement between policy and actual development. Data on center of gravity and standard distance of persons employed in industry according to the date at which the indus- trial establishments were founded (see Map 4 and footnote 12), seem to point to a certain parallelism between development of population and industry. Also, industrial establishments appear to develop more in a Southern direction and to increase their spread during time. It would be of interest to examine to what extent these developments were induced by policy and to what extent they were spontaneous. However, such a research would exceed by far the limits of this paper. We will here limit ourselves to further investigate through what demographic deter-— minants the southward shift and the increasing spread of population took place. § 5. Demographic Determinants of Shifts in Population Distribution Shifts in population distributions have been examined (13), by studying separately: (a) first place of settlement of immigrants from abroad (on the basis of detailed data for 1955-57); (b) internal migra- tions (on the basis of current data from the population register and the population census of 1961); (c) differential rates of natural in- crease in the various regions of Israel (1955-59). In our analysis we have neglected a fourth factor which is of minor importance, viz. pos- sible differential rates of emigration from the various regions of Israel to countries abroad. All the above data have been treated by methods illustrated in § 2, As far as the data examined may be taken to give a picture valid for the entire period under survey, the follo- wing features emerge from them: ae The main determinant of population spreading and southward shift has been the deliberate policy of inducing new immigrants to settle in comparatively more peripheral areas: housing and employment facilities offered to them by public bodies, were instrumental in attaining this aime As a matter of fact, standard distance of first place of settle- ment of immigrants from abroad was found to be much larger than that of the existing population, thus indicating actual geographical spreading of new-comerse bo Due to comparatively higher fertility and younger age distribution of new immigrants (largely of Asiatic and African origin) and to their larger dispersion in comparison with old settlers, birth rates are —_— (13) See the publication quoted in footnote (11) and "Internal Migra- tions (Part I)". Publication No. 19 of Population and Housing Census 1961, Central Bureau of Statistics, Jerusalem, 1964. 745 higher in peripheral than in central regions. Standard distances of births were found to be considerably larger (1955-59: 54.9 Kms.) than standard distance of deaths (49.3). On the whole, differential natural increase strengthens the tendency of spreading the population and shifting it to the South. ce Internal migrations were found to have determined: (i) a general shift from rural to urban areas; (ii) considerable gains of the con- urbation of Tel Aviv, of the developing Southern city of Beer Sheva, of some other development areas in the South, of the city of Haifa, etce On the whole, internal migrations strengthen the Southern shift, but may have no spreading effect: according to the Census of 1961, standard distances of places of origin and destination of internal migrants are almost identicale Data from the population register seem to suggest that recent immigrants, largely spread at their arrival, tend in their internal migrations to reduce their spread. de In conclusion, increased spreading which has marked population distribution until very recent years, appears to be largely the effect of deliberate policy enforced mainly by influencing the dietribution of the new immigrants at their arrival (factor A). This effect has been strengthened by differential natural increase (factor B) and to some extent lessened by internal migration of new immigrants (factor C). In periods of large immigration, effects A and B have prevailed over those of CG. ee With decrease in immigration from abroad, which occurred in recent years, the effect of A may have slackened, whilst of C may have been strengthened. Further research on this point is needed. § 6. Qualitative differentials in population distribution and population shifts Synthetic indicators have been calculated on the basis of detailed data on the geographical distribution of many population groups, sub- divided according to country of origin, period of immigration etc., in 1948, 1953 and 1961 (14). On the basis of these values it may be con- cluded: ae at a given date, dispersion of foreign born over the territory increases systematically with the decrease in their length of stay in Israel. (14) See the publication quoted in footnote (11). 746 be On the whole, veteran immigrants have tended to remain in tie more central areas where they lived before the establishment of the State, whilst new immigrants are found more largely in the new peripheral deve- lopment areas. Findings under (a) and (b) are in line with what has been said in § 5. Ce Both among old settlers and new immigrants, the groups more concent- rated territorially are those of Yemenite and Sepharadic origin (Bulgaria, Greece, Yugoslavia). The groups which are more dispersed, both among old settlers and new immigrants, are those from Morocco,Tunisia and Algeria. The most marked contrast was found between the geographical distribution of people of Polish and Russian origin (who constitute both the largest group among veteran settlers and the largest Zuropean group), and that of people from Morocco, Tunisia and Algeria (being both the largest non-European group and the largest group among new immigrants). The former group constitute a very high proportion of the population in the more central parts of the country, such as the areas of Tel Aviv and Haifa, and in certain rural areas where agriculture was developed in a previous period; the second group constitutes a very high share of the population in the newly developed, more peripheral parts, both in the North and in the South. de The systematic difference in location and dispersion between new immigrants and old settlers, is at the basis of many socio-economic features of today's Israeli society, such as the formation of large areas inhabited mainly by new immigrants and having generally lower stanaards of living and peculiar demographic and socio-economic characteristics. Some of these phenomena may be quickly grasped by studying location, dis- persion and other geographical indicators, for population groups, clas- sified according to various characteristics. Examples of findings ob- tained by this method of study are given in the following: i. Both for males and females, standard distance decreases with in- creasing number of education years. In other words: people with more education are more concentrated, people with less education are more dispersed. ii. Similarly, standard distance decreases with increasing use of Hebrew. This shows that in peripheral areas of the country, Hebrew is less dominant than in central areas. iii. Considerable differences are found in territorial dispersion according to economic branches, as shown by the following standard dis- tances for people employed in the different branches (1961), agriculture: 64.6 kme; construction: 59.9; transportation: 54.5; services: 52.2; electricity, water, etc. 50.6; manufacturing 49.6; commerce and banking 45.5. 747 ive People who are in their present plase of residence for a short time (largely new immigrants) are more dispersed than people who have been in their present place of residence for a long time. This is shown by the following standard distances according to length of stay in the place of residence for the total population (1961): since 1931: 44.6 kmo 3 1932-39: 44.8; 1940-47: 45.5; 1948-51: 52,1; 1952-54: 50.95 1955-57: 60.1; 1958-1961: 58.3. ve Territorial dispersion is different for various age groupse In connection with the higher birth-rates in peripheral districts, standard distance is highest in the first children's age groups. Standard dis- tance has a second peak at age 20-24 and it decreases systematically af= terwards, reaching a minimum at old age. This can be partly explained by the fact that (a) a larger share of new immigrants - having a younger age composition = live in the more dispersed rural localities and in other peripheral areas, and that (b) central towns, such as Tel Aviv and Haifa, have an older age composition. 748 POPULATION DENSITY (1948 , 1965) fa 2 —… —e .. soumeaut Number of Sub- District e. a oem 749 NET POPULATION INFLUENCE « 1961 - 280 LEGEND - 260 10-19 = I 240 ete "e % A, 3 0 ee... "e % % % % 0 0 0 0 ea... e * te tt, ue 20-29 fee esses E 30-39 40-49 {} 50-59 A 60-69 Ÿ + 220 200 E 70-79 80-89 E 90-99 o o - 140 120 “ese ese esse 0... A ercreccoeo fu 0 0001010008 /..... LR 080 7 *.masseccosseoc ome ondo aora tmn em rca Ec wr de e.=reree +: $ Loso J ov eee 0 ss ase es ee ses ues sede 750 CHARACTERISTICS Of THE GÉOORAPHCAL 751 ‘es 180 175 170 165 140 145 150 155 T T T 7 T 4 / E. x CENTERS OF POPULATION AND INDUSTRY N x \ ) + 7 dies e + \ / \ 5 \ / \ \ \ x \ O. TT wee @ / | o wso , \ o x / \ / . 1933 »” — 180 g: J S- 7 \ + x \ / se j 0 / 195. \ vos. + \ arm were \ \ 19.1 a Opened 1948-55 e la, ds ; © Sx / \ \ . / e * °° N+ o es \, \ O. y r > / * | . / * 4170 / 1 / * / \ | , 1 / x J ) ( o Opened 1956-61 os MS + - mo / / Canter of the settiement o / Contars of Jewish Population / "rame ie o Opened 1962-65 J meses verses seee O SEE dus \ + "300 1000 2000 3000 > \ > L 1 Xi ‘ 140 145 150 155 752 URBANIZATION PROCESS IN IRAN DURING 1956-1966 H.T. KHAZANEH INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES AND RESEARCH UNIVERSITY OF TEHERAN INTRODUCTION 1. Rapid population growth and urbanization are the two main demogra- phic problems in most of the E.C.A.F.E. countries. Iran is deeply con- cerned by these two problems. 2. The natural rate of increase in Iran has reached during the last decade, a rather high level of 3 per cent a year. The birth rate is around 50 per thousend a year and it is not likely to decline in the coming years. On the other hand the mortality is continuously declining. 3. Meanwhile a redistribution of the population has been observed: in 1956, more than 2 millions of persons were enumerated in villages and cities which were not their birth-places. The 1966 census confirms these urbanization trends. The establishment of most of the Iranian ci- ties is relevant to religious, political and commercial factors, like in most of the countries in the past. It is only recently that the rapid growth of industry has attracted migration towards the urban centers the growth of which was determined by the above mentioned factors. Thus Tehran and some cities of the south western part of the country have taken advantage of the industrial development. 4. In this paper, we will study first the general process of urbani- zation and afterwards the importance of Tehran within this general phenomen. I. Urbanization process 1956-1966 a. Geographical distribution of urban population 5. According to the census of 1956, 18.9 million inhabitants were counted. The density was 11.5 per square kilometer. The extreme values were observed in the Central Ostan where it was 44.7 per sq.km., and in the Province of Baloochestan 2.4 per sq. km., 5.9 million of inhabi- tants were living in urban centres and 13 million in rural areas. Accor- ding to the 1966 census the total population of Iran reached 25.8 mil- lion i.e. 9.8 million urban inhabitants and 16.0 million rural inhabi=- 753 tants. The density per scuare km. is 15.6. 6. Table 1 presents the percentage distribution of urban population by province and the provincial densities. Table 1" PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF URBAN POPULATION DY PROVINCE AND THE PROVINCIAL DENSITY, 1956 - 1966 Name of province Percent of Density population (Square Em.) 1956 1966 1956 1966 All Iran 100,0 100,0 11,5 15.6 Central Province 30.6 33.9 44.7 73, Gilan 5.4 4.7 33.5 43.3 Mazandaran 6.1 6.1 10.9 14,2 East Azarbayjan 9.1 7.7 29.1 35.5 West Azarbayjan 2.7 2.8 20.4 30.7 Eermanshahan 6.1 5.5 23.2 31.4 Kordestan 1.0 1.1 16.4 18.4 Ehoozestan 12.7 11,1 17.6 21.0 Fars and Banader 6.4 6.4 8.9 11.4 Kerman 2.3 2.5 3.5 5.0 Khorasan 7.2 7.4 6.4 8,0 Esfahan 9.8 10.2 7.7 10.2 Baloochestan 0.6 0.8 2.4 2.8 7. According to table 1, one third of the urban population is living in Central Province, Between 1956 and 1966, the total increase of urban population has been 3.8 million (with an increase of 1.1 million on the Central ¥rovince). So this province has absorbed more than one third of the total increase of urban growth, and the other provinces sharing unequally the remaining two thirds. Among those which have increased their relative importance were the provinces of Isfahan, Khorassan, Kerman, West Azarbayjan, Kurdestan and even the less populated nrovince of Baloochestan. In the other provinces, population is decreasing steadily. b. Dynanies of urban population 8. According to the definitions of 1956 census all population centres 754 with more than 5,000 inhabitants were considered as cities. 9. The table 2 presents some data concerning the growth of urban popu- lation between 1956 and 1966 in different provinces. Table 2" GROWTH OF URBAN POPULATION OF VARIOUS PROVINCES 1956 - 1966 Provinces Index of urban growth Urban Population in by province, natural p.100 of total popu- rate of increase Iran lation of each pro- basis 100 vince. 1956 1966 All Iran 170 31.4 38.1 Central Province 207 66.8 74.7 Gilan 120 19.7 21.7 Mazandaran 170 21.6 27.4 East Azarbayjan 110 25.4 28.9 West Azarbayjan 187 22.3 25.5 Kermanshahan 123 26.3 28.1 Kordestan 182 11.2 17.1 Khoozestan 123 26.6 44.2 Fars & Banadar 170 28.9 35.8 Kerman 213 17.0 22,2 Khorasan 180 21.4 29.0 Esfahan 183 38.6 49.9 Baloochestan 253 8,7 15.4 10. In all the provinces the annual rates of increase have been much more important than the natural rate of growth, except for East Azarbayjan where both are very close, 11. It may be seen that the provinces of Baloochestan (15.4 per cent) and Kordestan (17.1 per cent) have very low urbanization. On the other hand, the Central Province (74.7 per cent) Esfahan (49.9 per cent) and Khoozestan(44.2 per cent) have much higher urbanization than the national average. c. Development of different caterories of cities 12. Between 1956 and 1966 the total number of cities with more than 5,000 population has jumped from 186 to 223, but this increase has not been distributed equally between various caterories of urban centres. 755 15. Table 3 shows that the proportion of urban population living in cities of 100,000 or more has increased from 51.3 per cent in 1956 to 60.6 per cent in 1966. "Table 3" THE ANNUAL RATES OF GROWTH, THE PROPCRTIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION IN CITIES OF VARIOUS SIZE CLASSES, 1956-1966 Category 1956 1966 - Cities —— Percentage Cities rercentage Percentage Nb. percent distribu- Nb. per- distribu- annual rate tion of po- cent tion of po- of increase pulation pulation of popnla- . tion 5000-9999 90 48,4 10.6 97 43.5 6.6 4,20 10,000-24, 999 56 30.1 14.7 64 28.7 11.7 4.50 25,000-49,999 22 11.8 12.8 35 15.7 11,7 3.40 50,000-99,999 9 4.8 10.6 13 5.8 9.4 3.10 100,000-249,999 6 3.2 16.7 8 3.7 12,4 3.95 250,000-499,999 2 1.1 9.1 5 2.2 19.0 4.20 500,000 and over 1 0.5 25.5 1 0.4 29.2 7.15 Total 186 100.0 100.0 223100,0 100.0 6.01 14. It may be seen that the least rate of growth is observed in me- dium sized cities, the higher in smaller cities and the highest in cities of 500,000 and over. This may be because the people first came to smaller cities and then move to biggest cities avoiding the medium sized cities which can not offer the job opportunities to the same extent as the big- gest cities. 15. The table 4 shows the movement of one hundred and three cities affected by changes in their size classes. Most movements concern small changes from a lower category to the immediate upper category. Only,five cases out of 103, moved up by more than one rrade on the scale and only one city moved up by more than two. By the process of natural growth numerous big villages in 1956, close to 5,000 inhabitants, have attained the urban status in 1966. 756 "Table 4" INTER-CLASS MOVEMENT OF TOWNS, 1956 to 1966 (1) From 1956 to 1966 Number of towns Less than 5,000 to class VIII 39 class VIII to class VII 29 class VIII to class VI 1 class VII to class VI 17 class VII to class V class VII to class IV class VI to class V class VI to class IV class V to class IV class IV to class III Aa » Y » WN Total 103 d. Urban and Semi-Urban Population 16. As the above mentioned definition of urban areas does not appear sufficient, we have divided urban places in to two large categories, viz; less than 25,000 inhabitants, and more than 25,000 inhabitants. The first are called semi-urban centres, the second urban centres. Table 5 shows clearly that the urban centres have grown both in numbers and the proportion of population living in them. "Table 5" DISTRIBUTION OF CITIES AND THEIR POPULATION INTO URBAN AND SEMI-URBAN CATEGORIES, 1956-1966 Types of cities 1956 1966 Percentage Distribution Percentage Distribution cities population cities population Urban 21.5 74.7 27.8 81.7 Semi-urban 78.5 25.3 72.2 18.3 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 157 II. Position of Tehran in urbanization process in Iran a. Characteristics of “ehran 17. The city of Tehran, located in the Central Province, is the capi- tal of Iran. Thus it is not only the political and administrative centre but the main concentration point of industrial and commercial enterpri- ses, That is why, it is the most important labour market of Iran. 18. It is from Tehran that the "western ways" of life spread to other parts of the country. Its rapid change into "western-type' metropolis constitutes one of the problems of the development of Iran not only in . itself but also because of the lag it creates between the development of this city and that of the rest of the country. 19, Table 6 presents some international comparisons on the relative importance of main cities in relation to the total and urban populations of the countries. "Table 6" IMPORTANCE OF MAIN CITIES IN RELATION TO TOTAL AND RBAN POPULATION (in percent) (2) Countries Census Urban Rural Total Relative importance of years popula- popula- popula- main cities tion tion tion to total to urban percent percent population population Iran 1956 31.4 69.6 100.0 8.0 25.4 Iran 1966 39.1 60.9 100.0 10.5 29.2 India 1961 18.0 82.0 100.0 1.0 5.3 Japan 1956 56.3 43.7 100,0 7.8 17.5 Pakistan 1961 13.1 86.9 100.0 2.0 15.6 Philippines 1956 35.3 64.7 100.0 5.2 14.7 Egypt 1060 37.7 62.3 100.0 13.0 . 20,9 Iraq 1957 39.2 60.8 100.0 5.7 7.5 Turkey 1955 28.8 71.2 100.0 5.3 8.3 20, According to the ahove table 30 percent of the urban population of Iran lives in Tehran. This is the highest percentace observed in com- parison with other countries. Egypt comes far behind with a percentage of 20.9 of its urban population living in Cairo. With respect to the total population the share of Tehran is 10.5 percent. 21. In order to show the very special position of Tehran even among the biggest cities of Iran, we will give hereunder their classification «according to the size of their population in 1956 and 1966. We will consi- der only the cities of 100,000 inhabitants and over. 758 "Table 7" RELATIVE IMPORTANCE OF MAIN CITIES OF IRAN COMPARED WITH TEHERAN IN 1956 AND 1966 “ities 1956 1966 Population Tehran Cities Population Tehran (Absolute basis (Absolute basis figures) 100 figures) 100 Tehran 1,512,082 100,0 Tehran 2,712,944 100.0 Tabriz 289,996 19.2 Esfahan 423,777 15.6 Esfahan 254,708 16.2 Mashad 401,201 14,8 Mashad 241,989 16.0 Tabriz 400,900 14,8 Abadan 226,083 15.0 Abadan 270,726 10,0 Shiraz 170,659 11.3 Shiraz 263,210 9.7 Kermanshah 125.439 8.3 Ahwaz 202,776 7.5 Ahwaz 120,098 7.9 Kermanshah 183,318 6.8 Rasht 109.491 7.2 Shemiran 156.154 5.8 Rasht 141,756 5.2 Ghom 133,941 4.9 Hamadan 120,746 4.5 Rezayeh 110,419 4,1 Rey 102,993 3.8 22. The above table shows that the difference between Tehran and the immediate following cities has increased during the past ten years. This is a result of increased centralization of administrative and eco- nomic activities since 1956. b. Elements of dynamics of 4ehran 23. In 1786 Tehran was chosen to become the capital of Iran. Very few statistics relevant to the development of this city during the past two centuries are availabbe. "Table 8" GROWTIi OF TEHRAN DURING THE PAST TWO CENTURIES (3) Year Population Interval between each Annual rate of increa- (in thousands) successive evaluation se during each interval or census (years) (percent) 1786 15 114 2.53 1900 200 40 2.3 1940 500 16 7.2 1956 1,512 10 6.0 1966 2,712 759 24, Table 8 shows the tremendous acceleration in the rate of growrh of Tehran since 1940. We will now try to analyse the components of this rapid rate of growth. 1. Natality and Fertility 25, According to some prelininary results of a Survey conducted in 1966 (4) the completed fertility to once married females aged between 15 and 49 years is 6.0 (for rural areas this ficures is 7.5). The birth rate was estimated as 45 per 1,000 population. 2. Mortality 26. According to the same survey the infant mortality rate has been estimated to be 62 per 1000 in “chran as compared with 176 per 1000 in rural areas. From the infant mortality rate in Tehran we can roughly in- ter the life expectancy at birth to be 63 years and the crude death rate as 13 per 1,000 population. 3. Natural rate of increase 27. With such high fertility and natality rates, and a rather low mor- tality level, which is continously decreasing, the natural rate of increase is certainly one of the highest in the country viz more than 3.0 per cent. 4. Migration 28. Besides the natural rate of. growth (due to high fertility and favou- rable proportion of women in child-bearing age), the magration contributed to its growth. In 1966, about 700,000 inhabitants of Tehran were not born in the city. Between 1956 and 1966 the mean annual rate ofnet migration might be estimated to be a little less than 3 per cent. "Table 9" PROPORTION OF FEMALES 15-49 AMONGST ALL FEMALES 1966 (PERCENT) 15-49 All ages Iran 42.4 100.0 Tehran 48.0 100.0 co. Future of Tehran 29. In table 10, we compare the absolute and relative importance of the total population of Tehran, its active population and its school popula- tion (7 to 12) with the total population of Iran, the active population of Iran the school population of Iran in 1966 and in 1986. (5) As the age and sex structure of the population of Tehran in 1966, is not available we work in an estimated population, slightly under enumerated (6). T60 "Table 10"! FUTURE GROWTH OF TEHERAN IN RELATION TO GROWTH OF - POPULATION OF IRAN, 1966 - 1986 1) Total population 1966 1976 1986 Population Tehran Population Tehran Population Tehran (in 1000) in p.100 (in 1000) in p.100 (in 1000) in p. 100 total total total Iran 25,444 100.0 34,482 100.0 47,806 100.0 Tehran 2 p.100 2,594 10.2 4,327 12.5 8,736 18.3 4 p.100 3,082 12.1 6.149 17.8 11,772 24,6 2) Active population Iran 12,839 100.0 17,557 100.0 24,659 100.0 Tehran 2p. 100 1,426 11.1 2,355 13.4 4,035 16.4 4p.100 1,760 13.7 3,506 20.0 7,101 28.8 3) School population Iran 4,250 100.0 5,677 100.0 7,880 100.0 Tehran 2 p.100 342 8.0 428 7.5 997 12.6 4 p.100 373 8.9 670 11.8 1,543 19.6 3Q. From the first of the projection to the last one, we see the share of Tehran increasing for all the components of its population. For instan- ce, we can check that in the extreme hypothesis of growth of Tehran in 1 1986 about one quarter of population of Iran would be living in Tehran, but for the active population this part would be 29 p.100 and for the school population (age 7-13) 20 per cent. 31. It has to be noticed that the figures concerning all Iran as well as Tehran in 1966 are slightly different from the one really observed in the 1966 census. The differénces come from the fact that the population are taken from a set of projections calculated from 1956 to 1986. The slight differences does not affect the general size of the phenomena and thus the purpose of the comparison with 1986. CONCLUSION The urbanization process(in Iran of Iranian population) has just started during the past few decades: it has become one of the most impor- tant problems of development (of Iran). With only 38 percent of its po- pulation living in urban centres, Iran is expected to face in the coming Years very important currents of rural urban movements. 761 But the growth of cities is itself an asymetrical phenomena. Most of the cities are concentrated in the northern and western provinces. The case of Tehran which represents almost third of the total urban population needs special mention. In this city, all the elements of an explosive demographic growth are at work,viz, high natural rate of increase, strong power of attraction of rural migrants, etc. REFERENCES (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Preliminary results of the 1966 census. Iranian Statistical Centres, Tehran, 1966. The classes used in table 4 are the following: Class I (1,000,000 and over) Class II (500,000-999,999) Class III (250,000-499,999) Class IV(100,000-249,999) Class V (50,000-99,999) Class VI (25,000- 49,999) Class VII ( 10,000-24,000) Class VIII (5,000-9,999). J-C. Chasteland, M. Amani et O.A. Puech. La Population de l'Iran. Perspectives d'evolution 1956-1986. I.E.R.S. Teheran, 1966, VIII + 132 p. P. Vieille. Les prix, le marche des terrains et la Societe urbaine, I.E.R.S. Teheran, 1961, 274 p. Survey on fertility of married women in four rural areas of Iran and Tehran. I.S.S.R. Tehran (to be published 1967). J-C. Chasteland, M. “mani et 0.A. Puech. Op. Cit. Hypothesis 4 corresponds to E, = 50,0 years in 1966 and E = 65,8 in 1986. The general fertilitÿ rates for the same years were estimated respec- tively to 223 p. 1000 and 180 p. 1000. J-C. Chasteland et M. Amani. Projections de la population de Teheran 1956-1991, I.E.R.S5., Teheran, 1966, 58 p. The E in 1966 was estimated to 63.2 years, in 1986 to 70.2 years. The general fertility rates for the same years were evaluated to 210 p, 1000 and 132 p. 1000, 762 Some New Measures of Aimed Spatial Mobility by Dr.Dr.h.c.Dr. Wilhelm Winkler Vienna University 1. The author has taken the suggestion to the present paper from a chapter of his book "Grundfragen der Okonometrie" (Vienna 1951) with the title "Die Strahlungskraft der Stúdte". Ile studied there not. only the effect of ideas radiated from Vienna to its nearer and farther surroundings (as ; atheism or birthcontrol) but also the attraction, which the capital exerted on its surroundings. It was shown that the radiating power of Vienna diminished with increasing distance similarly as that of a source of light, according to a hyperbolic curve, only not, as with light, of the 2nd degree but of various degrees, even within the same matter. To a similar result G.K. Zipf has come (Human behavoir and the Principle of Least Effort, Allison- Wiley Press Inc. Cambridge, Mass 1949), only that according to Zipf the exponent of the hyperbolic curve a should simply be (-)1. Without knowing that study, the author has approximately testified and more precisely modified that result. 2. The units for the proof of Vienna's attraction were the per thousands of people born in the verious administrative units (political districts and autonomous towns) on the soil of to-day's Austria, enumerated in Vienna at the 1910 census, taken from all people born in that administrative unit. Those per thousands had to be arranged according to the growing distance from Vienna of the respective units. 3. It was, however, necessary to eliminate two disturbances coming from unhomogeneity of the matter for two reasons: from the different accessibility of Vienna because of the different conditions of trafic, and from the different administrative status and different economic character of the regarded units. 4. The first disturbance lead to include in the study only units lying at the two main railway lines of Austria: Westbahn and Südbahn. 763 5. The second disturbance lead to forming three groups of units: 1) autonomous towns x prevailingly industrial political districts 3) prevailingly agricultural political districts. 6. That study intended to prove the hyperbolic effect of distance on the emigration to the centre, not to measure the differences between those three groups. To do that means to study the spatial mobility of the population in those groups. 7. Mobility means the ability of men easily to accommodate with new conditions of place, and the easiness to change domicile (spatial mobility); or to change economic or social conditions (social mobility). 8. Spatial mobility may be studied either generally (general mobility) or with regard to a certain place aimed at (aimed mobility). Such a place may be e.g. the capital of a country. This is the case we deal with here. 9. Correctly to perform the comparison we have not to avail ourselves of the different spatial extent of the material (table 1 to 3 in the appendix), but to standardize the length of range under observation. 10. As the standard stretch of distance we use the shortest stretch available that is that of the autonomous towns (table 1). For the two other groups we choose the ending points of observation nearest to the ending ordinates of the stretch of the towns. We present the whole contents of those tables marking the limits of the standardised stretches of the two other groups. We add an illustration of the three raw curves and the respective straight lines graduated by the method of least squares, designed in a double. logarithmic system of coordinates. ' 11. Two differences of those lines strike at first sights their different height and their different slope. Both of those characteristics are significant for the degree of spatiel mobilitys the higher the per thousands of emigrants, the higher the spatial mobility and the lesser the slope (that means, the greater the indifference to distance) the higher mobility. If we design by Yi the length of the mean ordinates of the three straight lines (expressing the mean per thousands of emigrants to Vienna on the regarded stretch), by +; the reciprocal value of the slope of the lines, then both of them appear to be useful measuresof spatial mobility. 764 In general we believe that 4 may be less affected by other causes us mobility than y; 8; In our example we have the following values. The graduated equations run as follows: 1282,8.x70+ 72459 n” 00198 Yo = 5515,5.x 19 yy 56628, 5.x" 1147321 The mean ordinates aret y, = 86,5 J 1,i Yo > 40,1 46,4 7, - 26,0 20,0 The reciprocals of the slopes aret t-= 192 D, 1. 1,00 52,5 82 3,- 0,68 35.4 13. We see, as hinted to above, the run of the relatives is not quite congruent but it is fairly near in those two measures. A high knowledge of all factors causing emigration to Vienna would be necessary to give the two measures the full valuation. 14. If there is not such a knowledge, we use the arithmetic mean of the index numbers of the two series. Setting here ÿ, and + = 1 (or 100), we have aq as J J “1,1 + 2,4 2 The respective figures are: Jy = 100 J, = 49,5 J3 > 32,7 15. It is quite obvious and does not need any explanation that spatial mobility is highest in the autonomous towns, much smaller in the industrial districts, and least in the agricultural ones. 765 APPENDIX Intensity of emigration to Vienna from Table 1 autonomous towns in Austria Distance Per thousand of the Nr. Town from Vienna population born in that in km town lived in Vienna 1910 observed graduated 1 Wiener Neustadt 49 164,9 166,5 2 Linz 189 91,6 82,0 3 Graz 212 66,0 11,2 4 Salzburg 314 80,5 62,8 5 Innsbruck 567 29,7 46,1 *)area of to-day Intensity of emigration to Vienna from Table 2 industrial districts of Austria Distance Per thousand of the Nr. District from Vienna population born in that in km town lived in Vienna 1910 observed graduated 1 Hietzing, Umgebung 12 231,0 > 2 Modling 16 186,6 - 3 Baden 26 142,5 - 4 Wiener Neusthdt, Land 49 94,6 111,7 5 St. Pôlten 61 112,0 89,7 6 Neunkirchen 63 90,6 86,8 7 Mürzzuschlag 117 40,1 46,7 8 Bruck a.d. Mur 158 29,7 34,6 9 Linz, Land 189 34,3 28,9 10 Graz 212 17,7 25,7 11 Wels 214 36,8 25,5 12 Vôcklabruck 249 25,1 21,9 13 Salzburg, Land 314 14,8 17,4 14 Hallein 332 11,0 16,4 15 St. Johann im Pongau 376 8,3 14,5 16 Innsbruck, Land 567 6,8 9,6 17 Bludenz 728 4,5 - 18 Feldkirch 740 5,1 - 19 Bregenz 777 8,8 - +) Area of to-day 766 Intensity of emigration to Vienna from Table 3 agricultural districts of Austria Distance Per thousand of the Nr. District from Vienna population born in that in km town lived in Vienna 1910 observed graduated 1 Melk 85 82,1 81,3 2 Amstetten 125 45,8 46,1 3 Urfahr 189 21,7 25,1 4 Leibnitz 254 16,8 16,2 5 Zell a. See 414 6,1 7,9 = 6 Kitzbühel 472 7,5 6,5 7 Schwaz 540 12,9 5,3 8 Imst 622 4,2 - 9 Landeck 640 4,8 - *)area of to-day FIGURE: 200 Intensity of emigration to Vienna 400 1) from autonomous towns I 3 50 2) from industrial districts uu I 3) from agricultural districts = Q à S S x E 10 5 30 50 100 500 DISTANCE FROM VIENNA IN KM 767 INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR THE SCIENTIFIC STUDY OF POPULATICN SYDNEY CONFERENCE 21st - 25th August 1967 SESSION VIII "INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION" Moderator : C.A. Price Thursday, 24th August, 1967 11.15 a.m. to 1.00 p.m. 768 769 The Indian and Pakistani Immigration into the U.K. Pravin M. Visaria, Reader in Demography, University of Bombay 1. The factual data for this paper are drawn almost exclusively from the decennial censuses of England and Wales in 1951 and 1961, the statistics compiled under the Commonwealth Immigrants Act of 1962 and the estimates by the British Home Office. The relevant information available from India and Pakistan is extremely inadequate. 2. The number of "Indians" in the U.K. around 1949 has been estimated at "about 5000." The figures presumably covered all persons from the undivided India. They had been living in the U.K. for "a fairly lengthy period. "1/ The immigration from India and Pakistan began on a noticeable scale only during the early 1950's, when Britain had an acute labour shortage, particu- larly in certain unpopular jobs. By mid-fifties, the inflow was large enough to-induce the Home Office in London to keep a rough count of persons from Commonwealth countries entering or leaving U.K. Table 1 presents the result- ing estimates of net immigration of Indians and Pakistanis. The figures clearly reflect the slackening of the inflow during the recession in the U.K. in 1959 and its sharp acceleration when restrictions on the hitherto free right of commonwealth citizens to enter Britain at will seemed imminent. 3. The Board of Trade Statistics on the direct movement, by sea, of passengers to or from the U.K. also give data on the number of "immigrants" from and "emigrants" to India and Pakistan together.2/ 'Immigrants' or 'emigrants' are defined as persons reporting India or Pakistan as the country of 'last' or 'intended future' permanent residence, (i.e. residence for more than 12 months). The data show net immigration into U.K. each year between 1948 and 1963, with the highest net inflow in 1948 (15.2 thousands) and the lowest (0.6 thousand) in 1963, after the enforcement of the Commonwealth Immigiants Act. Many of the immigrants during 1948 and the following year were probably Englishmen returning after employment in the erstwhile colonies. Howeve., the figures of both immigrants and emigrants in this series show a steady ‘ecline, suggesting increasing preference for air travel. 4. Table 2 attempts to shed some light on the number and sex-composition of immigrants through the census data on persons born in India and Pakistan, but enumerated in England and Wales in 1951 and 1961. (Comparable data for 1/ Kondapi, C., Indians Overseas, 1838-1949, Oxford University Press, Bombay (1951), p.360. 2/ United Kingdom, Central Statistical Office, Annual Abstract of Statistics for 1959 and 1965, HMSO, London. 770 Scotland and Northern Ireland could not be obtained). Unlike the Pakistan- born, the India-born in England had an excess of females in 1951 and a rela- tively modest excess of males in 1961. The British citizens born in India, probably during the imperial era, constituted almost two-thirds of the total India-born in 1961, and accounted for this differential in the masculinity of the two groups. The proportion of British citizens among the India-born might have been even higher in 1951 although the point cannot be verified from the available census tables. 5. The available sex-age-distributions of the India - and Pakistan-born enumerated in the 1951 Census make possible an indirect estimation of the volume of net immigration of such persons into England during 1951-61. The initial quinquennial age distributions reflect in part the age-selectivity of migration and need not be smoothed. The fact that the actual inter- censal interval exceeded a decade by 15 days has been ignored.3/ The” average of the life expectancies reported in the available annual life tables for England and Wales during 1951-61 have been assumed to hold also for persons born in India and Pakistan, enumerated in the 1951 Census .4/ This latter assumption might be too optimistic. If so, the estimates below of net immigration during the inter-censal decade 1951-61, deduced as the difference between the India - and Pakistan-born enumerated in 1961 and the expected numbers of survivors, are conservative. But the estimate of India- born immigrants exceeds the number of Indian nationals enumerated in England in 1961 (Indians: 47,063; 31,995 males; sex ratio: 2123. Pakistanis: 22,030; 20,107 males; sex ratio: 10,456).5/ The likely explanation is the inclusion, in the estimates above, of the immigrants from East Africa or colonies, who were born in India but had acquired British passports and nationality. In fact, such immigrants might also explain the rather high proportion of the citizens of the U.K. or colonies among the India-born in England in 1961 (Para. 4; Table 2). Net Immigrants(1951-61) Persons Males Females Sex Ratio Born in India 57,091 38,414 18,677 2,057 Born in Pakistan 20,347 19,160 1,187 16,142 6. Admittedly, the above estimates from the country-of-birth data are not comparable with those in Table 1 due to differences in temporal and spatial coverage and also the possible divergent errors in both sets of data. But 3/ The reference dates of the 1951 and the 1961 Censuses of England and Wales were April 8, 1951 and April 23, 1961. 4/ The values of life expectancy during 1951-56 and 1956-61 were taken as 67.0 and 68.0 years for males and 72.6 years for females, respectively. The survival ratios were obtained from the "West" model of: Coale A.J., and Paul Demeny, Regional Model Life Tables and Stable Population, Princeton University Press, Princeton (1966). 5/ The figures include Indian and Pakistani nationals who did not state their country of birth. m the masculinity of estimated net immigrants is remarkably close to that of the nationals from the two countries enumerated in the 1961 Census of England (para. 5). The sex ratio of the India-born immigrants is very simi- lar also to that reported for Indian continental emigrants during 1923-47 (2105).6/ The sex ratio of the Pakistan-born immigrants and of the Pakistani nationals in England in 1961 is substantially higher. 7. The non-availability of the age-composition of persons born in India and Pakistan in the 1961 Census of England prevents an indirect estimation of immigration by age. However, for recent years, the statistics compiled under the Commonwealth Immigrants Act of 1962 furnish some interesting data. Under this Act, since July 1, 1962, all commonwealth citizens wanting to work and settle in the U.K. require a voucher from the British Ministry of Labour. The wives and children of the voucher-holders or of commonwealth citizens already resident in Britain and bona fide students or visitors are freely admitted. The statistics compiled under this Act are more comprehen- sive and detailed than the estimates shown in Table 1. The salient data based on this information are summarized in Tables 3, 4, and 5. 8. The net intake of the holders of Indian and Pakistani passports during the first 3-1/2 years of the 1962 Act, shown in Table 3, seems small com- pared to the estimate for 1961 or the first six months of 1962, but is much higher than during the 1950's. The statistics pertain to journeys. The non-immigrants (passengers in transit, non~student visitors for varying durations, temporary absentees returning to the U.K., diplomats and their dependents, and persons joining crews of ships or aircraft) formed 64.5 per- cent of the Indian-passport-holders and 54.1 percent of the Pakistani- passport-holders admitted to the U.K. during the period under consideration. Table 4 shows that the voucher-holders formed about 11% of the Indians and about 22% of the Pakistanis admitted to the U.K. Of course, this situation is not due to any decline in the desire to immigrate but due to the diffi- culty of getting vouchers. (See Table 5). The dependents (children and wives) of the voucher-holders and of immigrants settled in the U.K. before the enforcement of the 1962 Act are more important than the voucher-holders among the Indian immigrants and almost as important as the latter among the Pakistani immigrants during 1962-65. The sex ratio of "adult" immigrants during this period cannot be compared with that of the net immigrants esti- mated from the census data. However, if the students are excluded from Table 4, the sex ratio of adult immigrants in the other three categories falls to 1181 among the Indian and 3095 among the Pakistanis; and percentage of children among the total rises to 35.2 among the Indians and 29.7 among Pakistanis. Thus, the numerical imbalance of the sexes among the pre-1962 migrants is being corrected although it is quite high even now among the Pakistani adult immigrants. In fact, a further classification of persons 6/ International Migrations in the Far East during Present Times - the Countries of Emigration, unsigned, Population Bulletin of the United Nations, No. 1, December 1951. 172 embarking from U.K. might have shown quite a few of them as "going home to marry and/or bring the family." They might also be an important component of the temporary absentees returning to the U.K. 9. The information on the skills of the Indian and Pakistani immigrants to the U.K. is extremely limited. However, the Pakistani immigrants to the U.K. are said to be mostly unskilled or semi-skilled and often illiterate ...7/ Of the Indian immigrants to the U.K., the Gujarati immigrants accounting for "approximately 20 per cent” are likely to be chiefly white- collar workers. But the immigrants from the Punjab accounting for "almost all" the others are likely to be essentially unskilled or semi-skilled.8/ The migration of such persons cannot impoverish India or Pakistan with their abundant human resources. Their higher productivity in the British economy can help Britain and, through remittance of savings, also the countries of emigration. Unfortunately, however, in recent years, a probably substantial leakage of the remittance funds to the unofficial market has restricted the possible gain to India or Pakistan from the inflow of foreign exchange. 10. The immigration into the U.K. of specially trained Indians or Pakistanis can cause concern. But the only available data for 1962-65 (Table 5) show most of the applications to be for category C vouchers and not for the priority categories A (applications for persons with specific jobs) or B (applications by specially qualified commonwealth citizens, e.g., teachers, doctors and nurses). True, C class vouchers were not issued since September 1964 and were discontinued on August 2, 1965; but they formed nearly one- half of the total vouchers issued to the Indians and Pakistanis during 1962- 65. Differentials in the utilization of vouchers of different categories are not known, but the applicants with special qualifications had the highest chance of getting a voucher.9/ And, there has indeed been some drain of qualified personnel from both India and Pakistan where, despite some improve- ment in recent years, the allegedly-high social marginal productivity of shills is hardly reflected in money or real wages. 11. The period of sizeable immigration of Indians and Pakistanis to the U.K. is approaching its end. Since August 2, 1965, the Government of the U.K. has restricted the rate of issue of vouchers to 8,500 per year of which 1,000 are reserved for citizens of Malta. Also, not more than 15 per cent of the vouchers issued in category A are to go to any one commonwealth country. Further, if the report that the total number of category A vouchers issued in a year will be only 1,000, is correct, the immigration of unskilled Indians or Pakistanis will be only a trickle. Only the specially qualified will find an easy entry into the U.K., but India and Pakistan will want to mobilize such talent for work within the country. 7/ Why Pakistanis Migrate, a correspondent 's report, New Commonwealth, 40, p.184 (1962). 8/ Desai, Rashmi, Indian Immigrants in Britain, Oxford University Press, London (1963), pp. 2, 13, 19. 9/ Category B vouchers formed a higher proportion of those issued to Indians than of those granted to Pakistanis. The immigration of qualified personnel is probably more from India than from Pakistan. 713 Table 1. Annual Estimates of Net Immigration from India and Pakistan during 1955-62 According to the British Home Office. Year India Pakistan Year India Pakistan Year India Pakistan 1955 6000 1800 1958 6200 4700 1961 24000 25000 1956 5500 2000 1959 3000 860 1962+ 24000 25000 1957 6600 5200 1960 6000 2500 *till 30 June Sources: (1) Foot, Paul, Immigration and Race in British Politics, Penguin Books, London (1965), p. 126. New Statesman, 16 November 1962, p. 700. (2) Mauthner, Martin, A Question of Colour, on monthly averages reported in this article. The figures for 1962 are based Table 2. Persons Born in India & Pakistan but Enumerated in England and Wales, According to the Country of Citizenship or Nationality in the 1961 Census, and Their Number According to the 1951 Census. Country of India-born Pakistan-born Citizenship Persons Males Females Sex Persons Males Females Sex Ratio Ratio a. U.K. or 100,378 48,713 - 51,665 943 8,350 5,319 3,031 1755 colonies (63.76) (56.88) (71.97) (27.17) (20.52)(62.91) (by Birth (75,911) (35,867) (40,044) (896) (5,837) (3,542)(2,295) (1543) or Descent) (48.22) (41.88) (55.78) (18.99) (13.67)(47.63) b. Commonwealth 46,575 31,805 14,770 2153 19250 17,805 1,445 12322 countries (29.58) (37.14) (20.57) (62.63) (68.69)(29.99) c. Aliens 296 154 142 1085 35 19 16 1188 (0.19) (0.18) (0.20) (0.11) (0.07) (0.33) d. Nationality 10,186 4,973 5,213 954 3,102 2,776 326 8515 not Stated (6.47) (5.81) (7.26) (10.09) (10.71)(6.77) e. Total Enu- 157,435 85,645 71,790 1193 30,737 25,919 4,818 5380 merated in (100.00) (100.00) (100.00) (100.00) (100.00) (100.00) 1961 Census f. Total Enu- 110,767 82,865 87,902 913 11,117 7,212 3,905 1847 merated in 1951 Census Sources: General Register Office (1) Census, 1961, England and Wales: Birth place and Nationality Tables, HMSO (1964), p.4; (2) Census, 1951, England and Wales: General Tables, HMSO (1956), p.118. Note: Except in row 3, figures in parentheses show persons reporting partic- ular nationality or citizenship as percent of total reported as born in the relevant country in the 1961 Census. Table 3. The Number and Certain Characteristics of Indian or Pakistani Passport-Holders Admitted to or Embarking from U.K. and their Balance, during July 1, 1962 to December 31, 1965. Admitted Embarked Net Balance Indians Pakistanis Indians Pakistanis Indians Pakistanis (a) Number 4 156,118 91,025 101,242 56,419 54,876 34,606 (b) Percent children 16.43 17.28 8.62 7.51 31.52 33.22 (c) Sex Ratio of Adults* 2,622 4,511 3,126 5,760 1,783 2,888 @ Persons below 16 years as per cent of total number of admitted, etc. * Males per 1000 females among those aged 16 years and over. Table 4. The Number of Indian and Pakistanis Admitted to the U.K. in Selected Categories and Their Percentages in the Total Admissions. Indian-Passport-Holders Pakistani-Passport-Holders Category Number % in Total Admitted Number % in Total Admitted Holders of Ministry of Labour Vouchers 16,634 10.65 19,733 21.68 Dependents ... ... 29,741 19.05 17,618 19.35 Students ... ... 6,870 4.40 3,667 4.03 Other Permanent Settlers ... 2,120 1.36 769 0.84 Total ... ... 65,373 35.46 41,787 45.90 % Children in the Four Categories 31.25 - 23.31 - Sex Ratio of Adults ... 1,509 - 3,444 - Table 5. Applications for the Ministry of Labour Vouchers from Indian and Pakistani Passport- Holders and youchers issued, According to Category, July 1, 1962-December 31, 1965. Indian Passport-Holders Pakistani Passport-Holders Voucher Category A B C Total A B C Total Applications 8762 16172 184995 209929 14903 8370 147411 170684 . (4.2) (7.7) (88.1) (100.0) (8.7) (4.9) (86.4) (100.0) Vouchers Issued 4215 14268 16253 34736 5927 7491 14190 27608 (12.1) (41.1) (46.8) (100.0) (21.5) (27.1) (51.4) (100.0) Issues as % of 48.1 88.2 8.8 16.5 36.8 89.5 9.6 16.2 Applications Source for Tables 3,4 € 5: United Kingdom, Home Office, Commonwealth Immigrants Act, 1962, Control of Immigration, Statistics for (i) lst July 1962-31st December 1963 (ii) 1964 and (iii) 1965, command papers 2379, 2658 and 2979, HMSO, London. LL TT5 EXTERNAL MIGRATION AND THE AGE STRUCTURE OF THE CANADIAN POPULATION, 1851-1961% by Leroy O. Stone, Ph.D Consultant on Demographic Research Dominion Bureau of Statistics, Canada and Assistant Professor of Sociology University of Western Ontario The problem 1. For 'closed'! populations a high state of development has been reached in the analysis of the demographic determinants of age distribu- tional change. The relevant mathematical analysis has been extensive (for example, see Lotka, 1939; Leslie, 1946; and Lopez, 1961), and re- sults from this analysis are frequently being used in the estimation of vital rates (see, for example, Coale, 1963). In the case of 'closed' populations, extensive statistical measurement of the relative contribu- tions of fertility and mortality to age distributional change seems unnecessary, in view of the clear predominance of fertility (see Coale, 1956). 2. For 'open' populations the analysis of age distributional change is underdeveloped, at least by comparison with the 'closed' - population case mentioned above. As late as 1963 Tabah and Cataldi (1963, p. 683) have noted that: Dès que les lois de mortalité et de fécondité ne se mantiennent plus constantes, que des échanges migra- toires s'effectuent avec l'exterieur, ou que la com- position ne reste plus homogène, il devient difficile d'apprécier l'effet qu'on pu produire ces transforma- tions dans la situation observée a un moment donné. The mathematical analysis for the 'closed' - population case may be extended without great difficulty to the 'open' - population case (Hyrennius, 1959; Stone, 1965a; Rogers, 1966). Thus analogues to many of the important theorems for the'closed' - population case may be established without too much difficulty. However, when the levels of migration become high, fertility 776 does not clearly dominate the changes in age distribution (Stone, 1967a). Thus statistical measurement of the relative contributions of demographic processes to age distributional change in 'open' populations becomes a worthwhile exercise, and it is still in its infancy (for examples, see UN, 1956; Tabah and Cataldi, 1963; Stone, 1965b; and Stone, 1967a). 3 Statistical measurement of the relative contributions of the “emographic processes to age distributional change is useful in helping to satisfy at least two needs. Firstly, there is the need for more extensive scientific knowledge of the relative importance of the demo- graphic processes (for age distributional change) in a wide variety of situations. Secondly, there is the need in regional development planning for generalizations which policy-makers may use in gauge quickly the likely impact on age distribution stemming from prospective alterations in the demographic processes. 4, This paper is intended to be a small contribution to the accumu- lation of empirical information about the relative weights of the com- ponents of age distributional change in an 'open' population. The paper offers a tentative answer to the following question. 'Suppose Canada had been closed to migration from 1851 to 1961. In what respects and to what extent would its age distribution have differed from that actually observed?" The tentative answer provided here to this question is based on at least two assumptions. Firstly, it is assumed that mortality rate differentials between migrants (international) and non-migrants (at a given age) have a statistically negligible impact on the estimated Canadian survival ratios. Secondly, it is assumed that differentials in child-woman ratios between migrants (international) and non-migrants produce a negligible distortion in the results of the present analysis. The readily available Canadian statistics do not permit an empirical evaluation of these assumptions. 5. The analysis based on the above-mentioned assumptions indicates that net external migration has had just a slight impact on the sex-age structure of the Canadian population. At no census year from 1861 to 1961 did the median age in the census population differ from that of the hypo- thetically 'closed' population by more than one year. The impact of external migration shows up most sharply in the masculinity ratio. The masculinity ratio of the census population has had marked fluctuations, particularly in the years immediately following prominent immigration waves. Such fluctuations in the masculinity ratio are not shown by hypo- thetically 'closed' population. The record of Canadian external migration 6. The Canadian population has grown from a few thousand in 1666 to 18 million in 1961, and throughout this period Canada has been open to external migration. Between 1851 and 1961 Canada received more than eight million immigrants and it lost more than six million emigrants, according to the estimate of Camu, Weeks and Sametz (1964, Table 3.1). This number of immigrants received (eight million) was about one-third the number of births taking place in Canada over the same period (1851-1961). TT7 7. The flow of immigration into Canada has had strong historical fluctuations, as Chart I shows. Relative to size of the Canadían popu- lation?, the intercensal immigration to Canada has ranged from one per cent in 1931-41 to 25 per cent in 1901-11 (see Chart I), and it exceeded ten per cent? in just five of the 11 decades from 1851 to 1961. The relative volume of emigration ranged from two per cent? in 1931-41 to 18 per cent in 1881-91, and it exceeded 10 per cent in five of the 11 decades from 1851 to 1961. 8. Generally, decennial immigration and emigration have been markedly correlated (see Chart I). As a result the net external migration ratio? has been quite low in almost all of the decades. Only in 1901-11 has this ratio exceeded 10 per cent. 9. Migration is known to be a process selective of sex and age, and the net external migration to Canada is no exception. Over the decades from 1851 to 1961 males have been predominant over females in the exter- nal migration. In the various age groups, net external migration to Canada has been concentrated mainly among persons in the early half of working life. During the 19th century the net external migration was concentrated mainly among persons aged 25-44 at the end of each decade. In the twentieth century the interval of this concentration has been extended slightly to include the age group 20-24 (cf. Keyfitz, 1950, Table 3). Findings and discussion 10. External migration has had just a slight impact on the age structure of the population of Canada (see Table 1), given the assumptions set forth in paragraph 4 and the method described in the Appendix. Less than one year of age separated the median ages of the census and the hypothetically 'closed' populations of Canada in 1961, even though the hypothetical 'closure' of this population was extended for 11 decades (see the rows marked "EP" in Table 1). At no decennial census year over this period (1861-1961) was the difference between the median ages of these two populations greater than one year of age. The old-age dependency ratio was almost the same for the census and the hypothetically 'closed' popula- tions in 1961. Throughout the 1861-1961 period less than three percentage points separated the old-age dependency ratio for these two populations. Clearly, the major fluctions in the age structure are not explained by external migration. 11. For 1961 the level of the masculinity ratio in the census popula- tion of Canada was very similar to that in the hypothetically 'closed' population (see Table 1). This similarity is observed in most of the census years from 1861 to 1961. However there are a few years (particularly 1911 which followed a massive immigration wave) in which external migration 778 had a very significant impact on the sex composition. In addition the time series of masculinity ratios for the census population shows marked fluctuations which are absent from the time series for the hypothetically 'closed' population - a differential which partly reflects the impact of external migration." 12. ‘Three factors are probably the most important ones in accounting for the generally slight impact of external migration on the sex-age structure of the Canadian population. The first is the strong trend (downward) and fluctuations in the crude birth rate; which are well reflected by the time series of youth-dependency ratios for the hypothetically 'closed' population (see Table 1). The second factor is very low level of net intercensal migration observed for Canada in most of the decades since 1851 (see Chart 1). This observation is explained by the fact that emigration has gone far to offset the substantial immigration which Canada has had. The third factor, probably much less important than the first two in the Canadian case, is the level of sex-age selectivity in net migration to Canada. Although it has been shown that the net migration to Canada has been markedly selective with res- pect to sex and age (see Keyfitz, 1950), the degree of selectivity (concentration of migration in a narrow range of ages) could have been higher than that actually observed. Appendix. Measurement of the impact of net migration on age distributional change 13. The impact of migration upon population change is direct and indirect. The direct impact of migration is the net addition (or sub- traction) to population from in-migration and out-migration. The indi rect impact of migration upon population change is the contribution of migration to the number of births and deaths taking place in the rele- vant areas. Relevant here are the births to in-migrants and to out- migrants after their migration. Also involved are births to non-migrants resulting from their marriages with migrants. Owing to the paucity of suitable data, the indirect impact of net migration upon population can be measured only partially and crudely. 14. When there is no in-migration and no out-migration the net migration is zero, and the natural increase is due solely to the popu- lation in the relevant area of the beginning of the migration period. In this situation the expected end-of-period population in the age- group a + 10 (for a ten-year migration period) is P(a, 0)” R, (1), where P(a, 0) is the population aged a at the beginning of the migration period and R, is the estimated probability of surviving ten years for a person aged a at the beginning of the period. In order to obtain the expected number of survivors among the within-period births to this 779 hypothetical population, it is assumed that its end-of-period child- woman ratios are approximately the same as those for the observed popu- lation, following a technique used by Lee (1957, p. 65). 15. Suppose the coments in the preceding paragraph refer to the first of a sequence of migration periods. For example from 1851 to 1961 there are 12 decennial censuses demarcating 11 intercensal periods. From the foregoing supposition the survival ratio mentioned above refers to the 1851-61 period, and the hypothetical population refers to 1861. Now this 1861 hypothetical population may in turn be subjected to the 1861-71 survival ratios and to the 1871 child-woman ratios. This process would generate a hypothetical 1871 population, based on the assumption of no direct or indirect impact of migration over the two decades. The process may be applied again to generate hypothetical populations from 1881 to 1961, based on the assumption of no direct or indirect impacts of net migration over the 11 decades from 1851 to 1961. The sequence of hypothetical age distributions so generated provides an approximate picture of the path which the age distributional change would have followed had there been no in-migration or out-migration over the 110 year period. 16. Life-table survival ratios have been used. Generallv, the life table survival ratio is estimated from the L, column of a life table. The earliest Canadian life tables based on a’ three-year average of deaths pertains to 1931. The author has estimated survival ratios for Canada for decades prior to 1931-41. The values estimated for Canada are mainly adjustments of the estimates provided by Keyfitz (1950), and the estima- tion technique has been described in Appendix G of Stone (1967b). The limitations of life table survival ratios have been described elsewhere (Hamilton and Henderson, 1944). The life table survival ratios for periods after 1931 were computed from life tables prepared in the Health and Welfare Division of Dominion Bureau of Statistics. The population data are from the decennial Canadian censuses. 780 FOOTNOTES * Prepared for the 1967 meetings of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population in Canberra, Australia. The author is solely responsible for any errors or opinions in this paper. A population is said to be 'closed' when the designated area which it occupies is neither entered nor left by migration. Let "I" mean the intercensal immigration. Let "P, and "PL" be the beginning-of-decade and end-of-decade populations, respectively. The 'relative immigration" mentioned is actually defined as 1 / [2 Pot P,)] . This is the immigration ratio graphed in Chart I. Let "0" mean the intercensal emigration. The relative emigration (emigration ratio) is defined as O / fi? Po + P,)] . The net migration ratio is defined as ao) [1/2 Po + P,)] A sex differential in the quality of census enumeration may also be a factor in the fluctuations mentioned. REFERENCES Camu, Weeks and Sametz, Pierre, E.P. and Z.W., Economic geography of Canada, Macmillan of Canada, Toronto (1964). Coale, Ansley J., Effects of changes in mortality and fertility on the age composition, Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly, 34, 74-114 (1956). Coale, Ansley J., Estimates of various demographic measures through the quasi-stable age distribution, in Emerging techniques in population research, Milbank Memorial Fund, New York (1963). Hamilton and Henderson, C. Horace and F.M., Use of the survival rate method in measuring net migration, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 39, 197-206 (1944). Hyrennius, Hannes, Population growth and replacement, in Philip M. Hauser and Otis Dudley Duncan (eds.), The study of population, University of Chicago Press, Chicago (1959). Kasahara, Yoshiko, Internal migration and the family life cycle, Canadian experience 1956-61, paper presented at the 1965 World Population Conference, Belgrade, August 1965. Keyfitz, Nathan, The growth of Canadian population, Population studies 4, 47-63. (1950). 781 Lee, Everett S., Migration estimates, in Everett S. Lee et.al, Population redistribution and economic growth, United States 1870-1950, Vol. I, American Philosophical Society, Philadelphia (1957). - Lopez, Alvaro, Problems in stable population theory, Princeton University Press, Princeton (1961). Lotka, A.J., Theorie analytique des associations biologiques, Herman et Cie, Paris (1939). Rodgers Andrei, The multiregional matrix growth operator and the stable interregional age structure, Demography, 3, 534-544 (1966). Stone, Leroy O., Some preliminary notes on a model for the study of the influence of migration on changes in the age distribution of a opulation, unpublished mss. (1965a). Stone, Leroy O., Migration and the sex-age composition of Puerto Rico, 1950-1960, Canadian Review of Sociology and Anthropology, 2, 108-116 (1965b). Stone, Leroy O., The impact of net migration on changes in the sex- age structure of population in selected Canadian cities, 1901-11 to 1951-61, paper presented to the Population Association of America, Cincinnati meetings (1967a). Stone, Leroy O., Urban development in Canada, review draft of a 1961 census monograph (Dominion Bureau of Statistics), 1967b. Tabah, Leon, Relationships between age structure, fertility, mortality and migration, background paper at the United Nations World Population Conference, Belgrade, August 1965. Tabah, and Cataldi, Leon et Alberto, Effets d'une immigration dans quelques populations modèles, Population, 18, 683-696(1965). United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Methods for population projections by sex and age, United Nations, New York (1956). 782 0 .02 Chart 1. Immigration and emigration ratios,* Canada, 1851-61 to 1941-61 Immigration 4 À 4 4 L A “ur "51 ‘31- ‘41 "11- '21- *21 ‘31 1901- "11 'S1- ‘61 ‘81- "91 1891- 1901 *71- '81 1851- '61- '61 ‘71 Intercensal periods * Ratio is intercensal immigration (emigration) divided by the mean of the beginning-of-decade and end-of-decade populations. Data from Camu, Weeks and Sametz, 1964, Table 3.1 TABLE 1. Selected Statistics of the Sex-Age Composition for Observed and Hypothetical¥ Populations, Canada, 1851-1961 Statistics 1851 1861 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 Masc. ratio(l), OP(2) 105.4 105.7 102.7 102.5 103.6 105.0 112.9 106.4 107.5 105.3 102.4 102.1 all ages EP(2) 105.4 105.0 104.8 103.6 102.9 102.4 102.1 101.8 101.7 101.3 100.9 100.4 Masc. ratio, oP 102.9 103.8 96.8 98.8 101.7 104.5 125.6 103.4 106.6 102.4 96.4 101.4 20-34 EP 102.9 101.1 104.7 104.7 103.7 102.5 102.3 102.1 102.0 101.6 101.2 101.2 Med. age(3) op 17.5 18.5 18.7 20.0 21.5 22.9 24.5 24.7 25.5 27.5 27.9 26.2 males EP 17.5 18.3 19.3 20.3 21.6 22.8 23.5 24.0 24.8 27.0 27.4 25.9 Med. age, females OP 17.0 18.0 18.8 20.0 21.3 22.4 22.9 23.2 24.1 26.6 27.7 26.7 EP 17.0 18.0 19.1 20.1 21.6 22.8 23.6 24.0 24.9 27.2 28.0 27.2 Youth dep. oP 85.8 78.0 76.0 67.7 61.8 57.3 53.0 56.7 50.4 42.4 48.5 57.7 ratio(4) EP 85.8 80.4 73.8 65.1 60.5 56.7 55.8 56.5 50.6 42.6 47.8 56.2 Old age dep. Oop 5.1 5.6 6.7 7.2 7.8 8.4 7.5 7.8 8.8 10.2 12.5 13.1 ratio(5) EP 5.1 4.9 5.3 5.4 5.7 6.4 7.2 8.6 10.2 10.8 11.8 12.9 * This is the hypothetically 'closed' population memtíoned in the Appendix. The figures for this population,see the rows marked "EP", are estimates of features of the age distribution which would have been observed had there been no migration into or from Canada between 1851 and 1961. (1) Masculinity ratio = 100 (Males/Females) (2) "OP" means census population "EP" means hypothetically closed population (3) Median age (4) Youth dependency ratio = 100(Population aged 0-14/Population aged 15-64) (5) Old age dependency ratio = 100(Population aged 65 & over/Population aged 15-64) Source: Censuses of Canada; life tables published in Canadian Life Tables. (prepared ín the Health and Welfare Division of Dominion Bureau of Statistics); and Keyfitz (1950). £eL 784 Chart 2. Changes in the age distribution for males, Canada, 1851-1961 (observed population) Lan [777711 BE | ZZ 77777777 ZU 7 90 Ly Q- 807 juC-64 704 6 01 Per 501 cent 4 0 34. À se eo ov °° on Cs e y e * Y "io 2 04 . + . ” ” . . . e . . - - . 0 . e "e. . . +0 e * e, e . . . . . . . + . . . + . . . * “.*. . ” - ” .. e *_—.. . . . v . « . . e ” . , ..” * . . .. .. el * "” e ... 8 +4 +0 e. . Pe e "O .O O.” .. . . .. ! 5) 1 : t t L 1 1 LL 4 1851 ‘61 ‘71 81 91 1901 17 7 Sl TT OY Census years Legend:- _ MIT 10» ZA ct KK 20-39 Data from Census of Canada 785 Chart 2 100 Per Cent 1851 Legend:- (Cont '"d.) (Hypothetical 'closed' population) 91 1901 11 21 31 Census years ER 40-64 V4 65 + over 786 THE CHINESE IN AUSTRALIA: Numbers and Distribution by Arthur Huck Department of Political Science University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia 1. The demographic history of the Chinese in Australia can be divided into three periods. In the first, the era of the great nineteenth century gold rushes, the Chinese population (including persons of half Chinese origin) rose from nil to about 39,000. In the second period there was a long steady decline to a low point of 12,000 in 1947. In the third, the post-war period, numbers have risen sharply again, to an estimated total of 29,000 or more in 1965. Numbers will probably rise in the near future to something near the nineteenth century peak. 2. In the first period, the mining era, figures for different areas rose and fell with great rapidity but the totals were approximately as follows: 1841 nil; 1851 2,000; 1861 38,300; 1871 27,700; 1881 38,700. 3. The first Chinese in Australia were brought out under contract labour agreements as agricultural and pastoral labourers during the 1840s. To employers in the eastern states, faced with the cessation of convict labour, the schemes seemed attractive but the experiments failed. Some Chinese returned home and those who stayed mostly moved to the new gold fields. 4. They came in thousands to Hsin Chin Shan, New Gold Mountain, a fabled distant place with the same attractiveness as Chiu Chin Shan, 0ld Gold ‘lountain, as San Francicso was commonly called. In a Chinese atlas of 1955 this name appears as an alternative in brackets after Mei-erh-pen, the tranliteration of ilelbourne.2 Few people in China in the last century had any clear idea of the geography of Australia or any other foreign place. Chiu Chin Shan possibly meant to many the goldfields of California rather than San Francisco itself, Hsin Chin Shan the new Australian fields rather than Melbourne proper. llelbourne itself was not a mining town but it was the gate- way to the great Victorian fields. 5. Most did not come for permanent settlement but to improve their fortunes in a short time; to return to their family villages richer than when they left. Australia lay at the remotest edge of the Nan Yang, the Southern 787 Oceans which contained many areas known to Chinese settlers, but unlike the countries of Southeast Asia it contained no nuclei of old Chinese settlement around which new communities could easily develop. Even in Southeast Asia the Chinese had not been colonisers in the European manner. China has never had an overseas colonial empire. The great waves of emigration in the nine- teenth century were not directed by the state but took place in distinct opposition to official policy and despite Ch'ing statutes making emigration a punishable offence. The law was unenforceable, a dead letter long before repeal in 1894, but it typified the attitude of the imperial government. Moreover the government took no steps to protect the interests of its nationals abroad. The Ch'ing (Hanchu) administration indeed had good reason to be highly suspicious of these emigrants. They were nearly all Southerners from areas where anti-lianchu sentiment was strong, and later provided much support for the revolutions which finally toppled the dynasty and brought in the republic. 6. It is usually assumed that overpopulation and widespread poverty produced the large scale Chinese emigration in the nineteenth century, that without such pressures people with such strong local familial and ancestoral loyalties would not consider leaving home. There is certainly evidence of widespread misery in the wake of the Taiping rebellion and its suppression (1848-1865). Hundreds of thousands died in the course of it and during the subsequent banditry and civil disorder. Even with such calamities, however, the pressure of too many people on too little cultivatable land was high in many parts of the south. There have nevertheless been many overpopulated poverty stricken areas of the world from which emigrant streams have not arisen. Clearly there existed other conditions, sufficient to bring about such a result. 7. The Southeast coast of China had known many centuries of seafaring history and it was here that contact with Buropean seagoers was first established. The Ch'ing dynasty restricted trade with Europeans to as few outlets as possible: the old settlement of ilacao, used by the Portugese since the middle of the sixteenth century; Hong Kong, ceded to the British in 1842; Canton and Amoy, opened as treaty ports in 1842, and Swatow, opened in 1858. For those living near these ports emigration was much more feasible than for those cut off by poor communications in the interior. From the ports came knowledge, however fragmentary and inaccurate, of the economic possibilities of the outside world. From them foreign shipping flowed to all points on the globe and the shippers apparently found the prospect of large numbers of low fare passengers attractive; they eagerly competed for the trade. The growth of the steamship trade made long journeys easier, faster, safer and cheaper. 8. The cost of such travel nevertheless was beyond the means of most poor but enterprising emigrants. Ilany thousands left under contract-labour arrangements reminiscent of the recently supressed slave trade, but such agreements played little part in Chinese movement to Australia. Contemporary evidence is slight but most probably came under the credit-ticket system. 9. The flow of miners to Australia was only a small part of the great migration movements of Chinese in the nineteenth century: It was large enough 788 however to alarm the Australian colonists, and legislation % restrict Chinese immigration was passed in Victoria as early as 1855. 10. It is possible that in the first gold rush period (the latter half of the 1850's) that the proportion of Chinese was at its highest but the available figures are far from complete or reliable. In 1861 there were more than 38,000 Chinese in Australia, including a handful of women. As there were in the total population probably 335,000 men over 20, about one adult male in nine was Chinese. This peak, 3.25% of the total population was of short duration. As alluvial fields declined Chinese faded away. Their numbers declined by a third in the 1860's and by 1867 New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia had repealed their anti-Chinese legislation. The opening of the Queensland fields in the seventies led to a new influx, end in the eighties the colonies again passed restrictive legislation: capitation taxes and restriction of numbers in proportion to ships' tonnage. The new Federal Government in 1901 adopted a policy of exclusion in the name of White Australia. A substantial literature has developed explaining, justifying, attacking and defending this policy. Here we are not concerned with its reasons and rationalisations but only with its effect on total numbe: 11. Censuses in the second period from 1891 to 1947 reveal a steady decline in numbers: 1891 35,800 1921 20,800 1901 32,700 1933 14,000 1911 25,800 1947 12,100 Clearly, stringent entry control was a major cause of this decline but other factors need noting. There were very few women in the Chinese population; only 11 in the 1861 Censuses an only 259 in the 1881. In 1901 98.5% of the full blood Chinese were male. The growth of an Australian born Chinese population under these conditions was naturally slow, only 3,728 full blood Australian born Chinese by 1947. With this imbalance in sexes some Chinese naturally married non-Chinese, but the growth of a part-Chinese populetion was also slow, only 2,950 by 1947. Departures were many, in nearly every year between 1505 and 1923 regularly exceeding arrivals. Of those men who stayed many neither married nor rejoined their families overseas. These aged and died without replacement. 12. Since 1947, however, the trend has reversed. The census of 1954 revealed a Chinese population of 15,558. By 1961 this had grown to 23,568. The Chinese populetion at June 1965 can be conservatively estimated at about 29,400, see Table 2. Before going further, however, something must be said on the problem of definition. Who is to be counted as Chinese? Does "Chinese" have a clearly definable meaning? 13. The Australian census takers have had an unhappy time with the term "race". The 1954 Explanatory Note reads as follows:- The term "race" as used in the tables of this part is not synonymous with ethnic group but is 789 based on geographical rather than ethnological descriptions. The form of enquiry at the 1954 Census was: "For persons of European Race, wherever born, write European. For non-Buropeans state the race to which they belong, for example, Aboriginal, Chinese, Negro, Afghan etc. If the person is half-caste with one parent of European race, write also H.C., for example H.C.Aboriginal, H.C. Chinese etc. The complementary instruction was: "In the case of a person both of whose parents are non-European but of different races, state the race of that person's father (and do not add E.C.)". This form of inquiry end the instructions are identical with those used at the 1947 Census. It follows that, as the essential distinction is between European and non- European races only, those having European blood to the extent of one half have been classified as half-castes of the non-European race. 14. The Bulletin on race for the 1961 Census gave the following explanation:- The characteristic "Race" refers broadly to the ethnic origin of the person irrespective of where born or of what nationality. For this characteristic the basic data do not permit of scientific classification of ethnic origin and the races are named with a geographical rather than a truly ethnological description. Thus "Indien" refers to the ethnic types to be found in India. In other words, each racial group described in this fashion is a mixed group when viewed in the light of the hypothetical genetic types from which it is derived. The limitations imposed by the practical need to present non-European races by their commonly recognised rather than their scientiric groupings are further complicated by the necessity of combining as one group all persons of European origin. Census statistics of "hace", cannot, therefore, answer fully the questions which interest the anthropologist and ethnologist, but they do Jossess utility for governmental administration and other practical purposes. Persons were then classified as: European; Non European, and Persons of Half-Luropean and Half Non-Buropean Race. (The 1966 Census will attempt a more eleborate analysis of answers given in the form of fractions e.g. Ÿ Chinese 3 Curopean. It remains to be seen how successful this will be). 15. Australian census takers have not been alone in their terminolovical difficulties. As Skinner has otserved:- The very definition of a Chinese becomes intricate in the overseas context, for neither ancestry nor legal citizenship status is a realistic criterion of Chineseness in Southeast Asia. Millions of Chinese in this region neither claim nor recognise any prerogatives of Chinese citizenship and, because of widespread miscegenation and assimilation, untold thousands of versons descended from Chinese immigrants are identified completely as indigenous Southeast Asians. Nor can retention of Chinese cultural behaviour serve as a reliable guide. Several million overseas Chinese can neither speak nor understand Chinese, and some groups among them are so un-Chinese as to prefer matrilocal marriage, to eat with spoon and fork rather than chopsticks, end to worship indigenous spirits or the Christian God in preference to Chinese deities. 4 790 16. "In the last analysis, being a Chinese is, in Southeast Asia, essentially a matter of self-identification. Those who identify themselves es Chinese are almost without exception descended from Chinese immigrants through the male line and still use - at least in some form and in some circumstances - the surname inherited patrilineally from that ancestor. Overseas Chinese, then, comprise China-born Chinese residing abroed together with those patrilineal descendants of Chinese immigrants who still regard themselves personally and socially as Chinese'. 17. In Australia official records obviouely rely heavily on persons accepting the racial labels in the questions. If you are prepared to describe yourself as Chinese then you are counted as Chinese; if not, not. Census takers now try to avoid pejorative labels like "half-caste", just as people avoid accepting them. Official figures up to the present, then, give no impression of the range of people who are part ethnic Chinese, other than those who have recorded themselves as having one Chinese parent and one European. 4 question of interest to anthropologists, .for instance, is whether there is a substantial Chinese-aboriginal population. The answer is apparently no. During the gold rushes the aboriginal population was probably in decline and retreat before advancing alien settlement. Some Chinese-aboriginal | miscegenation undoubtedly occurred but its effects are now hard to trace. In the more settled era that followed, aborigines increased again and a consid- erable population of part European - part Aboriginals developed, particularly in remote rural areas and the Northern Territory. By then, however, the Chinese were no longer scattered through the outback; they were highly urbanised with few contacts with Aboriginals. Even in a racially complex town like Darwin there is now no tendency for Chinese to marry Aboriginals. (The position in New Zealand is rather different, Chinese-Maori miscegenation being not uncommon). 18. This paper treats as Chinese all those who have identified themselves as wholly or partly Chinese in official returns of any kind. What factors have accounted for their steep increase in number since 1947? 19. - The Australian Census is officially described as being "on a de facto basis, i.e. it enumerates persons in the country whether, permanently or temporarily, at the time of the Census. Persons enumerated thus include crews of vessels in port or on the Australian coast, and business men, student and others whose residence in Australia is of a temporary nature". 10 Detailed tabulations have not been published in the 1961 Census Bulletin on Race but it has been possible to obtain some of the information required for an analysis of the crude figures from the unpublished tabulations held in the Bureau. Table 1 shows the totals, broken down by State and Territory, for all Chinese, both overseas and Australian-born. | 20. The Australian born population has increased since 1947 at a rate a little under 2%; in 1961 there were 8,393 Australian-born Chinese, 5,550 of full Chinese race and 2,843 of half-European race. The Census enumerated 15,175 Chinese not born in Australia. Of these 1,597 were "migratory", i.e. 791 "persons not elsewhere enumerated who at midnight between 30th June and 1st July were travelling on ship in Australian waters or on long distance trains or aircraft".11 The percentage of migratory persons in the total population is only .24% 12 but in the Chinese population it is 6.8%,13 due to the many Chinese crewmen on ships in Australian waters. (Only 4 Australian-born Chinese were counted as migratory in 1961). 21. If the migratory are excluded it follows that the Census enumerated 13,578 Chinese who were not born in Australia. The Census gives no further information and it is necessary to go to other records to discover the composition of this group. More than half, 7824, were students. The Australian public often assumes that most Asian students have come under the Colombo Plan or some other official scheme. In fact most are private students, holders of temporary entry permits, including 7,605 Chinese in 1961; 14 only an estimated 219 Chinese were under some form of official sponsorship. 12 The Department of Immigration also listed as resident on 30/6/61 some 5,694 Chinese, "other than students and Australian gitizens, who have entered or are resident in Australis on a long term basis. "1 In addition 570 Chinese hed been naturalised17 and about another 1,000 had, as British subjects from another British territory, been granted citizenship by registration. 18 22. There is an interesting discrepancy here. If the numbers of students, long term residents (as defined above), naturalised and registered persons, are added together the total of some 15,100 is considerably higher than the inferred Census figure of 13,578 Chinese born overseas. Some of the Depart- mental figures may not be entirely accurate but it is more likely that numbers of Chinese, student boarders for example, were not included in the Census returns despite specific instructions to householders to include everybody. 23. Whatever the discrepancies, it is clear that the largest increases since 1947 have been to overseas-born students and to other categories making up a new immigrant population. This rather unusual group composition of the Chinese population should be borne in mind when looking at character- istics such as masculinity, age structure and the urban-rural ratio. 24. The masculinity ratio of the Chinese population, defined as the number of males to 100 females, was very high in 1961 - 206.8.19 Australia, of course, has since 1788 been essentially a migrant society, in the population as a whole there has always been a predominance of men over women. The exact ratio, however, has differed significantly in different groups and in different areas. With the Chinese statistical imbalance has naturally been greatest among the migratory, and least among the Australian-born. There has, however, been a high proportion of males among the non-migratory overseas- born. Table 3 illustrates the range by giving details of sex, parentage and region for the state of Victoria in 1961. 25. The age structure of the Chinese population has changed considerably in recent years. Palfreeman“” has constructed age-pyramids for the 1911, 1933, 1947 end 1961 censuses which are much broader based and more regular by 792 1961: more children, more young people, more women. The de facto basis of the census, however, makes it dangerous to draw firm inferences from these pyramids. It is not possible for instance to construct reliable age pyramids for the Australian-born Chinese only. In studying all Chinese immigrants in Victoria aged 15 or more in 1964 the author of this paper found that the proportions of men in the 15-40, 41-65, and over 65 groups corresponded fairly closely to the norms for the general population; there was, however, among the women a much greater proportion of 15-40s than in the general population and a much smaller proportion of middle aged and elderly women. 26. In recent years Australia, while preserving a large amount of rural mythology, has become an increasingly urban society. 1 It is now one of the world's most urbanised nations, 82% in 1961. Although rural inhabitants increased in all states between 1954 and 1961 their proportion of the total population declined.22 Table 4 compares the urban-rural distribution™of the total Australian population and its Chinese component. The Chinese population is markedly more urban than the Australian with only 4.5% of the Chinese classified as rural. It is also highly concentrated in the metropolitan areas (71.5% compared with 56.1%). 27. It is clear that the Chinese metropolitan figure is considerably inflated by large concentrations of overseas students but even if these were ignored (which would hardly be rational) the urbanisation figure for the Chinese would still be greater than for the country as a whole. It is an overwhelmingly urban population. Sydney and Melbourne have the greatest numbers of Chinese in Austrelia, between them nearly 60% of the total. The greatest urban percentage concentration, however, is in Darwin, Northern Territory where the Chinese are 4.1% of the population (502 of 12,325 in 1961). 28. This pattern of metropolitan concentration is similar in all areas of Australia except Queensland where 56% of the Chinese live outside the capital; see Table 4. 29. Between 1961 and 1965 the number of students and persons naturalised or registered increased, and it is possible to estimate totals from the 1961 figures and the increase rate of nearly 2% amongst Australian-born. The number of "long term residents" appeared fairly stable but as the increase in naturalised and registered persons came from this group its composition altered, new arrivals taking the place of those who had become citizens. If the migratory figure is as at 1961 the Chinese population in June 1965 can be estimated at 29,410,23 see Table 2. 30. This figure is still a very small proportion of the total population, no more than 0.26%. Nevertheless, it is larger, proportionally, than the figure for the United States which in recent years has been about .08%, 24. but it is much smaller than the figures for the adjacent regions of Southeast Asia. The contrast with Southeast Asia is very great; total Chinese population in the area has been estimated as about 11.5 million in 1962, ranging from 1.3% of the population of the Philippines to 75.2% of the 793 population of Singapore. The small Australian figure has nevertheless been increasing in recent years. Even if the students and the migratory exe excluded the other categories, which make up a more or less permanent population, have still shown an increase since 1961, from 15,657 to an estimated 18,930 in 1965, or from .15% of the total population to .17%. It appears that both the temporary and permanent Chinese percentage of the population is increasing. 31. This finding does not agree with the conclusion of a 1964 Current Affeirs Bulletin "that the non-European percentage of the Australian population, in terms of permanent residence, is likely to continue declining" 26 The Bulletin does not appear, however, to have given due weight to the considerable numbers of naturalisations and registrations which have boosted the permanent population. Unless the more liberal policies of recent years on entry and naturalisation are reversed there seems no reason to expect a decline in the Chinese percentage of the population. All the indications are in the other direction. NOTES 1. Commonwealth Year Book, XVIII, 1925 pp. 951-56. 2. Shih-chieh Fen Kuo Ti-tu, Dah Chung Book Co., Hong Kong, 1955. 3. For a Contemporary Description see a letter written by H.4. Firth, emigration officer for British Guiana at Calcutta, 10/7/1875, quoted by H.F. “icNair, The Chinese Abroad, Their Position and Protection, a Study in International Law and Relations, Commercial Press, Shanghai, (1926), p. 63. McNair gives as source T.A. Coghlan and T.T. Ewing, The Progress of Australia in the Nineteenth Century, London (1903). Although the letter seems genuine the source appears to be wrongly cited. 4. David Johanson, "History of the White Australia Policy", Immigration: Control or Colour bar?, Immigration keform Group, lelbourne University Press, (1962). 5. A.T. Yarwood, Asian Migration to Australia: the Background to Exclusion 1896-1923, Melbourne University Press (1964), p. 163. 6. Yarwood, op. cit. p. 165. T. Explanatory Notes to the 1954 Census, Vol. VIII Supplement to Part I. 8. Commonwealth Census of 1961, Bulletin No. 36. Race of the Population, Australian States and Territories. Issued September 1964. 10, 12. 13. 14. 15. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 794 G.W. Skinner, "Overseas Chinese in Southeast Asia", The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science January 1959, p.137. Census Bulletin No. 36, Introduction. 11. See Note 7. Commonwealth Bureau of Census and Statistics, Pocket Compendium of Australian Statistics No. 49, 1964 p.76. Calculated from unpublished Census returns, 1961. Depertment of Imnigration, "Non-European (Private) Students holders of Temporary Entry Permits, 30th June, 1961". Calculated from figures supplied by the Department of External Affairs, imputing, on the basis of a name count of students in Victorie, 1963, 62% of llalaysian students as Chinese. Department of Immigration, Planning Division. Australian Immigration. Quarterly Statistical Bulletin (November, 1961). From estimates supplied by Department of Immigration. Calculated from figures in Bulletin 36. See Note 8. A.C. Palfreeman: The Administration of the White Australia Policy, Melbourne University Press (1967) p. 150. See Table 2 for definition of Urban-Rural Distribution of Chinese by States: 1961. L.L. Robson, Commentary accompanying map-sheet Population Distribution and Growth (1964) Atlas of Australien Resources, Second Series, Department of National Development, Canberra, p.13. Bases of Lstimates. 1) Australian-born : 8393-9080 (assuming 2% increase since mid-1961) 2) Naturalised : 3202 by June 1965 3) Registered : 1280 by June 1965 4) Long-term Residents: 5374 by June 1965 5) Private Students: 8663 at 31/3/65 6) Sponsored Students: 219 Sources 2: Dept. of Immigration, Consolidated Statistics, 1966; 3-5: Dept. of Immigration, estimates and unpublished statistics; 6: Dept. of External Affairs, estimates based on figures of, see note 15. Rose Hum Lee: The Chinese in the United States, Hong Kong University Press (1960) p. 26. 795 25. Table in Douglas P. Murray, "Chinese Education in South-East Asia", The China Quarterly, No. 20 (October, 1964). 26. White Australia - Reform? Current Affairs Bulletin 34(4): July, 1964, p. 54. BIBLIOGRAPHICAL NOTE There is little systematic literature available on the Chinese in Australia, see Charles A. Price (Ed.): Australian Immigration : A Bibliography and Digest, Canberra (1966), Section P. The two most recent books on immigration policy affecting the Chinese are Yarwood, A.T., Asian Migration to Australia. The Backoround to Exclusion 1896-1923, (Melbourne, 1964) and Palfreeman, A.C., The Administration of the White Australia Policy Melbourne, (1967). Longmans will publish later this year a book by the author of this paper on The Chinese in Australia, a study of Chinese immigrants, voters, overseas students, and Australian attitudes, based mainly on surveys carried out in 1964. TABLE 1 CHINESE IN AUSTRALIA BY STATES: 1961 Full Chinese Race* Half Chinese and TOTAL half European race Total born Aust. Total born Aust. Total born Aust. New South Wales 10, 325 2873 1129 962 11454 3835 Victoria 5099 959 690 613 5789 1572 Queensland 2612 1150 992 946 3604 2096 South Australia 562 36 52 40 614 76 Western Australia 990 116 147 116 1137 232 Tasmania 269 55 20 17 289 72 Northern Territory 458 348 138 138 596 486 Australian Capital 67 13 18 11 85 24 Territory TOTAL 20,382 5,550 3,186 2,843 23,568 8,393 Source: Australian Census 1961. * Note: Includes persons with Chinese father and a non-European mother and probably most persons of over half Chinese race. 796 TABLE 2 ESTIMATED CHINESE POPULATION IN AUSTRALIA, JUNE 1965 Australian Born 9,080 Naturalised or Registered 4,480 Entered or resident on a long 5,370 Source: See Text, term basis note 23 Students (Private and sponsored) 8,880 Migratory 1,600 Total 29,410 TABLE 3 CHINESE POPULATION OF VICTORIA, 1961 Urban-Rural Distribution, Origin, Parentage and Sex. Full Chinese Race* Half Chinese & Half Europeen Race Australian Born Overseas Born | Australian Born Overseas Born M F M F M F M F Metropolitan 454 415 2451 867 233 253 36 32 Other Urban 42 31 328 66 53 52 4 3 Rural 10 6 13 3 13 7 - - Migratory - 1 412 - 1 - 3 - Total Victoria 506 453 3204 936 300 312 43 35 Source: Australian Census, 1961. * See Note to Table 1. 197 TABLE 4 URBAN-RURAL DISTRIBUTION OF CHINESE BY STATES: 1961 Metropolitan Other Urban Rural Migratory Total N.S.W. 9335 1144 353 622 11454 Vic. 4741 579 52 417 5789 Qld. 1318 1589 447 250 3604 W.A. 774 123 128 112 1137 S.A. 410 26 25 153 614 Tasmania 195 41 7 46 289 N.T. - 541 55 - 596 A.C.T. 84 - 1 - 85 TOTAL 16,857 4,043 1,068 1,600 23,568 % 71.5 17.2 4.5 6.8 100.0 88.7 TOTAL AUSTRALIA % 56.1 25.8 17.8 0.3 100.0 81.9 Source: Australian Census, 1961. Notes Metropolitan Urban includes the statistical metropolitan areas of the capital cities of the States and the City of Canberra, the capital city of Australia. Other Urban comprises the capital city of the Northern Territory, all separately incorporated cities and towns irrespective of size, and all other towns with a population of 1,000 persons or more (750 in Tasmania) outside the Metropolitan Urban Division. Rural comprises the remaining portions of each State and Territory. 798 IMMIGRATION POLICIES AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTH-EASTERN AND EASTERN ASIA R.T. Appleyard, Professor of Economic History, University of Western Australia 1. Although net migration is one of the two determinants of population growth, it has been almost ignored by demographers presently studying Asia. The reason is simple enough: natural increase has dominated population growth with the result that nearly all the research and interest of demographers has been in fertility, family planning, mortality, etc., and other aspects of natural increase. Only occasionally does one come across an article based on research into the contribution of international migration to population growth. My intention for this paper is to note the main changes which have occurred recently in the immigration policies of several countries in Asia. While the general trend has been towards tighter restrictions on the entry of immigrants for permanent settlement, it will be shown that the intake of highly skilled and professional workers on a temporary basis has increased significantly in recent years and appears to be playing an important role in official programmes of economic development. 2. Post-war migration affecting countries in Asia may be divided into permanent and tempo emigration (es and Et) and permanent and temporary immigration (Ip and It). It is always important to emphasise that estimates of migration on such a basis are, perforce, based upon travellers' stated intentions upon arrivel in or departure from the country concerned. To the extent that travellers later change their minds, the official statistics (based on 'intention') will differ from achieved migration (by 'type!). For example, on his departure from Nationalist China for the 1. The data for this paper were obtained during a field trip late last year in Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan and the Philippines and have been dram from the first draft of a monograph I am preparing for the Australian Institute of International Affairs. 199 United States, a student may declare that he intends to return home after completing his course of study and so is classified in official statistics as a temporary departure (Et). If he later decides to remain in the United States permanently, the original entry under Et should be transferred to Ep. In fact, corrections of this kind are never made. At best, ex post calculations are made of net gains or net losses from total outward and inward flows: / (Ep + Et) - (Ip + It) 7. And even these assume that statistics are available and are relieble, For present purposes it is necessary to have not only data on movement by 'type', but also data on the changed intentions of travellers, Unfortunately these are not available for any of the countries under study; indeed, several countries provide only rough estimates of total outward end inward movements. 3. My special interest in this paper will be the role of It, and to a lesser extent Ip, in programmes of economic development. Permanent, non- refugee emigration (Ep) will not be covered simply because during the last few years very little of it has occurred, Apart from the flow of Indians and Pakistanis to the United Kingdom, other flows have been small and fitful although there is evidence that several western countries are presently obtaining a number of professional and highly skilled Asians for permanent settlement either by direct recruiting or by offering Asian students in their countries permanent appointments, By and large, however, Ep has played practically no role as a "population pressure valve", Similarly, end mainly because of internal economic and demographic conditions in each country in the area, Ip has been restricted almost entirely to the re-entry of nationals. Policies have been adopted which prevent the entry for permanent settlement of all but a few persons with very special qualific- ations, Asia has been well outside the mainstream of post-war international migration which has been meinly from Europe to the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Israel, South Africa and Latin America and between countries within Europe. Both Australia and Canada initiated large-scale immigration programmes not only to maintain desired high rates of economic growth but, in Australia's case, as a defence measure. Like most of the other receiving countries, Australia required permanent settlers and gave priority to persons of European ethnic origin. Population was a scarce resource and immigration was seen as a rapid, though not necessarily painless, method of doubling the rate of population growth from one to two per cent per annum. Only recently have the United States, Canada and Australia relaxed restrictions on the entry of non-Europeans as permanent settlers although Australia insists that they be professional or highly skilled workers with qualifications "... which are in fact positively useful to Australia", In announcing these changes in policy the then Minister for Immigration, Mr. H. Oppermsn, emphasised that they were "e.. not intended to meet general labgur shortages or to permit the large scale admission of workers from Asia". 2. Press statement by the Minister of Immigration, March 1966. 800 4. Unlike Australia and Canada, population is not a scarce resource in the countries under study and this is reflected in their policies . concerning Ip. In Singapore, e.g., since the Immigration (Prohibition of Entry) Order of 1959, entry permits have been restricted almost entirely to the wives and children of Singapore citizens, Although the Order provides for the entry of 'Professional and Specialist! immigrants and others '0f Economic Interest', in fact only several persons have been admitted under these categories: 12 in 1961 (plus 20 dependants) and 5 in 1962 (plus 8 dependants). Similarly in Malaysia entry permits, required by persons who enter the country for permanent residence, are granted only to the wives, children or, in some cases, the aged parents of Malaysian citizens. The latter come mainly from India, Pakistan and Hong Kong. Other persons have only a very slight chance of being granted entry permits for permanent residence although, as will be discussed later, the government will grant short-term employment passes to skilled workers. Thailand invokes a quota system, allowing only 200 per year from a number of foreign countries. The quotas for the United Kingdom, the United States, Japan and Nationalist China are generally filled each year but entry from other countries is nominale Although the Thai government cannot provide statistics on the actual numbers entering under quotas, it appears that preference is given to applicants who have considerable capital to invest in Thailand or who have professional/technical qualifications or who are closely related to Thai citizens. Hong Kong's policy on permanent setile- ment of immigrants is largely determined by its British colonial status and by its proximity to, and special relations with, communist China. British citizens are granted entry, subject to the usual qualifications concerning health, good conduct, ability to support themselves, etc., and may be allowed to stay in the colony indefinitely. Under the Treaty of Nanking, the government admits for permanent residence an agreed number of persons from Kwantung province on the mainland. At present the agreed quota is 50 per day although towards the end of 1966 only about 20 persons were entering the colony daily and these were all aged; there were no able-bodied workers amongst them. The illegal entry of Chinese ethnics and the prevention of eniry of persons not possessing re-entry permits to another country (especially stateless Chinese) are the colony's main concerns. In addition, many visitors to the colony apply for residential status after they arrive. This, together with the fact that the number of arrivals and departures each year exceeds the actual population, makes it difficult to assess net gains by 'type' of migrant, Although they comprise only a small proportion of the Colony's population, aliens with 'permanent residence’ status (i.e., non-British and non-Chinese) totalled 5012 in 1963/4 and 5934 in 1964/5. The government of Nationalist China requires all persons not possessing Nationalist Chinese passports who wish to enter the country for residence to obtain entry visas, This requires sponsorship by a resident national who is required to vouch for their "good character! and, if necessary, support them financially after they enter the country. As with several other countries in the area, figures are not available on the numbers of entry visas issued or on the number of 'residence certificates! issued to visa holders after they arrive. It is probable, however, that 801 gains from immigration are small, Fan Tze-hwa estimates nes gains of 3000 in 1960 and 1961, 600 in 1962, 300 in 1963 and 1100 in 19647. With Hong Kong, special precautions are made to prevent the entry of stateless Chinese in Asia. Such persons must, in addition to finding a sponsor in Nationalist China, also be a resident of a "friendly country", i.e, one with which Nationalist China has diplomatic relations. The Philippines Imigration Law of 1960 abolished general immigration and adopted selective immigration "to facilitate entry of foreigners who can contribute to the well-being and economy of the country". Admission is by a quota system but only from countries having reciprocal immigration agreements with the Philippines. Lacking a statistics section and the facilities to prepare adequate tables, the Immigration Office is unable to provide any data on intake of immigrants although it is clear that numbers are small. Like several other countries in the area, the government is concerned with the problem of stateless Chinese. At present, there are approximately 2000 such persons in the Philippines. To prevent the entry of others, the government demands that all visitors have re-entry permits to another country. 5. This brief summary, although clearly limited by the lack of adequate data on both policies and movement, indicates that none of the countries in the area is encouraging immigration of permanent settlers. The tenor is restriction; entry being largely confined to the relatives of citizens and, in Thailend and the Philippines, to persons who are highly skilled and/or have capital to invest. As already noted, restrictive policies of this kind are appropriate to demographic and economic conditions in the area. On the other hand, each of the countries under study has proclaimed a need for foreign investment, preferably of the kind which will provide jobs for unemployed or under-employed workers and, at the same time, be instrumental in raising 'general levels' of skill. Perhaps the most effective way of achieving this is, first, to provide the investor with conditions which minimise the risk of him losing his capital and, second, to encourage him to accompany his investment with foreign skilled workers who not only erect the factory but also train local workers in the skills necessary to operate it, after which they return to their homelands. If the volume of investment and nature of goods produced can be geared to overall development policy, providing employment and training for local workers and contributing to "balanced! growth, so much the better. As will now be shown, countries in the area under study have, for several years, been implementing investment/ migration policies which meet these criteria. 6. Since 1961, the government of Singapore, through its Economic Development Board, has conducted a campaign to attract foreign investment 3. Fan Tze-hwa, Population Growth and Economic Development In Taiwan, 1951-1963, mimeo, undated, Table 1. 802 either in wholly-owned subsidiaries or in some form of collaboration with local capital. At June 1966 there were 165 "pioneer companies" in Singapore's industrial estates. Foreign investors, depending on the volume of their investment, enjoy tax-free operations for up to five years after starting commercial production and are not restricted in the remittance of profits overseas. While the Economic Development Board, in conjunction with the Singapore Institute of Management, conducts courses for the training and upgrading of skills, and many foreign investors have benefited from this, an important part of the 'skill-training' of Singapore's labour has been initiated by the investors themselves. At June 1966, 108 of the 165 pioneer companies were operating and staffed by 214 foreign male "managerial and supervisory personnel" and 230 foreign male "technical personnel (including all skilled persons)". Probably the majority of the technical personnel are directly involved in training local workers, either in factory construction or in production techniques. Once a foreign entrepreneur makes his investment, he generally sends in a group of foreign experts to supervise the erection of the factory and these are followed by another group which installs plant and machinery followed by a third group which trains local workers to operate it. The important point, for this paper, is that the foreign experts are admitted to Singapore only as temporary residents. Once they complete their assignments they return to their homelands or are transferred to another country to complete similar assignments. Many of them are specialists in this kind of work end their employers have no wish for them to remain in any foreign country once their job there is complete. The Controller of Immigration in Singapore usually gives 'very sympathetic consideration" to the applications of foreign investors in pioneer industries for the admission of experts of this kind. Once the Economic Development Board agrees that they are necessary and that no local experts are available for the job, they forward their recommendation to the Controller of Immigration for his approval. With the limited data available it is simply not possible to assess the influence which foreign experts are exerting on economic growth. Account would also have to be taken of the output of foreign workers in non-pioneer industries, those in firms which have been operating in Singapore for many decades and who have traditionally filled top posts. In recent years Malaysia has adopted strict measures against the filling of many top posts in foreign-owned companies with foreign workers. Companies operating in the country are now required to submit regularly lists of foreign personnel to the government which then decides whether or not they should be replaced by Malaysian workers. Like Singapore, the government has at the same time established pioneer industries and, by granting taxation and profit remittance concessions, attracted considerable foreign investment. By 1966 pioneer industries had attracted nominal capital of $776(Malay) million of which $246 million had been called up, $149 million having come from foreign investors in 18 countries. The Malaysian government certainly encourages the foreign companies to send foreign experts to establish their factories but it differentiates quite clearly between granting "employment passes" and "professional visit passes". The former (granted for 3 years in the first instance) are issued only after the Controller of Immigration has been 803 satisfied that no Malaysian citizen could satisfactorily perform the job for which the foreigner is required. The onus is on the prospective employer to make a case for each foreign worker. Between 1962 and 1966 the Controller issued 1887 employment passes although the number issued each year declined from 519 in 1962 to 281 in 1966, a trend which probably reflects a hardening in the government's Malayanisation policy. Figures are not available on the number of professional visit passes issued during the same period but it is known that these are much easier to obtain, especially by investors in pioneer industries who require foreign experts to set up their factories and train local workers. Thailand has also encouraged the temporary stay of experts who accompany private investment. In the first instance they are permitted a stay of twelve months but a good case has to be made for an extension. In recent years the government's Board of Investment has become more restrictive in its approval of foreign investment. Potential investors are now required to state their planned investment, output, local equity, imports of equipment and raw materials as well as the number of workers, foreign and Thai, required to establish and operate their factories. A technical sub-committee of the Board evaluates each application for the entry of foreign experts and will not grant its approval if it can be shown that Thai workers are available. Although the Board is unable to provide detailed data on the number and type of experts who have been approved in recent years, one official estimated that approx- imately 1500 had been admitted since 1961, He emphasised, however, that the periods spent in Thailand by these experts varied from a few weeks to several years. The majority of them were Japanese simply because of the recent sharp increase in Japanese investment which now exceeds new invest- ment from any other country. The Nationalist Chinese government has also established an Industrial Development and Investment Center which provides information for private foreign investors. Like other countries in the area, the government has established industrial districts (sixty-one) in which foreign investors are encouraged to erect factories on land offered at fixed low prices and also granted taxation examptions during the first five years of operations. In recent years the electronics industry has grown rapidly as a result of Japanese investment under these conditions. "Trainable, hard-working and disciplined" labour is, according to one official, the main attraction to investors in an industry which is labour intensive. As elsewhere, Japanese investors bring teams of experts to establish the factories and to train local labour. Unfortunately, it will be some time before statistics are available on the numbers of experts who have entered the country. The Philippines government also allows the entry of foreign private experts subject to the potential employer obtaining the Immigration Commissioner's approval. He refers all applications to the Department of Labour which decides, after advertisement in the national press, whether or not the jobs could be filled by local workers. Most of the experts entering the Philippines during 1966 were from Hong Kong and Nationalist China. They were granted permission to stay for two years, with the possibility of extensions. Although at the time of our study the Philippine 804 government had not given the same encouragement to foreign investors and experts as had other countries in the area. Te The main point of this paper is that in recent years countries in the area have adopted remarkably similar policies concerning both immigra- tion for permanent settlement (Ip) and the entry of private experts for short periods (It). Entry for permanent settlement is now restricted almost entirely to close relatives of citizens and, in several countries, to a few professional or highly skilled workers. As noted in paragraph 1., these réstrictions reflect each country's economic and demographic condition and, to some extent, their nationalism and their ethnic pref- erences, The most important changes for economic development, however, have been the establishment of Boards of Investment to encourage and coordinate foreign investment. One of their main functions is to evaluate foreign investors! requests to accompany their investment with highly skilled workers who will supervise the erection of factories, train local workers to operate them. Immigration in the old sense (including the "Empire builder" who returned to his homeland only after he had retired from a high appointment) has clearly been supplanted in South-east and Eastern Asia by the short-term stay of skilled workers who accompany private foreign investment. This new kind of planned investment/migration forms a solid basis for economic development. Private foreign investors operate in these countries, as elsewhere, to make profit. Before investing they research local and regional markets for their products. Where they invest depends on the conditions offered by alternative countries in the area; on tax concessions, freedom to remit profits, political stability, the offer of cheap land in established industrial estates, etc. As private entrepreneurs, their operations in the selected countries (including their training of local workers) will be conducted as efficiently as possible. This alone has an important bearing on future eccnomic development. 805 INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR THE SCIENTIFIC STUDY OF POPULATION SYDNEY CONFERENCE 21st - 25th August 1967 SESSION IX "TECHNIQUES OF ANALYSIS OF SPECIAL RELEVANCE TO ECAFE REGION" Moderator : W. Brass Thursday, 24th August, 1967 2.00 p.m. to 3.45 p.m. 806 807 On Some Techniques of Demographic Analysis of Special Relevance to the Asian Countries Ranjan K. Som 1 United Nations Economic Commission for Afric 1. This paper reviews some techniques of demographic analysis, relating mainly to fertility and mortality data, of special relevance to the Asian countriese Position of the Asian countries in regard to availability of acourate vital statistics 2. The position of the Asian countries (excluding Mainland China) in regard to the availability of fairly accurate vital statistics is shown in Annex Table 1 against the background of comparable data for the other world regions of Oceania, Africa, and Latin America; the data reflect the regional differences in progress towards the achievement of universal registration of vital events and differences in the availability of ac- curate estimates of demographio parameters which by their very nature cannot be obtained from registration medium. 3e The Asian countries taken together seem to be more advanced than the African countries but somewhat behind Latin America. However, the com- parison is slightly deceptive and becomes more realistic in Annex Table 2, which shows the percentage of population for whom fairly accurate birth rates are known according to source of data. The Latin American countries have restricted themselves to registration statistics and "reverse sur- vival" estimates (obtained on comparison of age data of two consecutive population enquiries): most of the "reverse survival" estimates referred to in the Table were computed at the United Nations Population Division. On the other hand, the bulk of the estimates in the Asian countries come from demographic sample surveys, and about equal proportions from regis- tration and "reverse survival" technique. The position of the African countries is in-between, with sample surveys providing the single major source of accurate vital data. The demographic setting in Oceania is, 1/ The views expressed are the writer's own and not necessarily those of the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa. 808 however, unique. Australia and New Zealand, with accurate registration data, between them account for 80 per cent of the population of the region: the only other sizable population over one mission is in lew Guinea. For a number of small islands, for whom although registration is universal, not all the demographic measures can be computed because of the instability arising from the small number of events; for the same reason, but even more so, sample surveys cannot be used, 4. Direct estimates of the demographic parametérs are given by regis- tration and sample surveys, although both might need adjustments for the different types of errors and biases that may be present. The technique of "reverse survival" estimates is useful as a substitute measure when the direct measures are not available or accurate. Universal accurate registration of vital events should remain the long-term objective, but till that is reached, reliance will have to be placed on sample surveys and other special techniques for obtaining accurate vital statistics. 5. It appears that the Asian countries have entered the phase in techni- ques of demographic analysis when fuller use could be made of the data obtained from population censuses and demographic sample surveys through more sorhisticated techniques than are normally used for obtaining the overall rates. One particular advantage this region enjoys over, say, Africa is that there is a long tradition of demographic analysis; with some notable exceptions, research has generally been undertaken by people of the region, working in the nationally and internationally sponsored institutes of research and training. Response errors and biases 6. Host of the vital data, obtained either directly from population enquiries, or directly from registration and sample surveys, are subject to errors and biases other than those due to sampling, and adjustments have to be made to the data before plausible estimates can be built up. Such response errors have been seen to be larger than the sampling errors, and resources spent on further research in this direction would be more effective in raising the accuracy of the data than resources expended on increasing the size of the sample, Although some theoretical and practi- cal formulation of specific types of response errors have been worked out, there is still a need for a unified approach to the problem; the require- ment is for a statistical formulation of the response errors which could be built into the designs of sample surveys (and complete enumerations) and could then lead to the theoretical solution of the problems in terms of sample size, accuracy, and cost. To The general methods of detection of response errors are the checking of internal consistency of data and comparison with independently avail- able records, An example of the latter in checking the population census returns is to carry out the unitary matching of these returns with persons enumerated in a previous census, registered aliens, registration of births 809 end deaths, etc. This method, which has been used in the 1960 population census of the USA, cannot be applied generally in the Asian countries, excepting for Japan, Taiwan and some other countries. The other methods of internal consistency checks are outlined below. 8. Re-survey. A standard method of measuring and adjusting for response errors in censuses and samples is the re-survey of à sub-sample of units in the original survey, using the same (or preferably a more detailed) schedule, and, ideally, better staff. This re-survey can be in the form of a post-enumeration check, almost universal with censuses, or it can form a regular, integrated part of the original sample survey. Unitary checks with one-to-one matching are an essential part of the post- enumerative checks of population censuses, and should be attempted wherever resources permit; in some cases, checks only at the aggregate level may be practicable with resulting loss of some information. 9e Inter-penetrating networks of sub-samples. This technique, intro- duced by P.C. Mahalanobis in the Indian surveys, consists of sub-dividing the total number of units in the survey (sample or census) into a number of parallel, random groups, permits by the Fisherian analysis of variance, the testing of the differential effects of enumerators and other factors causing variation in the data, e.g., differences in field schedules, and methods of collection: in the USA, where this technique has been applied for computation of the sampling errors, it sometimes goes by the name of "Tukey plan". While the technique has been used in the region, mostly in Inaia and the Philippines, its full potentialities in demographic enquiries have not yet been realized, For example, it can be used to test the dif- ferential bias of the primary enumerators vis-à-vis that of the supervisors, or of the regular enumerators vis-à-vis that of medical or para-medical staff; or to test the differences of the estimates by utilizing different types of schedules (one with detailed, adequate probes) or by collecting data with different reference periods; or by different methods of enquiry (retrospective via-à-vis periodic observations). These different sources of variation under study may be taken up in combination in different sub- samples. As it is very unlikely that there will be a constant bias running through all these combinations, one could meet one of the commonest objec- tions to the use of the technique. 10. Recall analysis. In this technique of checking of the internal con- sistency of the current vital data, estimates are built up for different recall periods of 1 month, 2 months, etc., within the total reference periods and then compared; adjusted estimates are obtained corresponding to the ineoretical recall period "zero". This technique has been applied in the Indian and Pakistani surveys (at the Indian Statistical Institute and the Institute of Development Economics, Pakistan) and has also found applications in some African countries (at the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa and the Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques, Paris). If the survey design permits such analysis, the technique can at least be used to reveal any internal inconsistency 810 in the data (which would otherwise have lain hidden in the estimates for the total reference period), and at best can provide adjusted rates. 11. Comparison of total and cumulated current fertility history and of total children born and number surviving by age of mother. These techni- ques, which are designed to yield adjusted total and current fertility and current mortality, were evolved by William Brass and further developed and applied to a large body of African demographic data at the Princeton Office of Population Research, These are valuable methods by which some information can be salvaged from defective data, In Asian situations, where age reporting is in general better than in Africa, these methods are likely to have much more significant applications. 12. External analytical checks. The external unitary check most relevant in demographic studies is the one-to-one matching of the current vital events reported in a survey with those registered; the analytical frame- work for adjustment of the data on the basis of such checks was first provided by C. Chandresekaran and W.E. Deming. This has found important applications in Indian Surveys, and in the Population Growth Estimates in Pakistan, the latter having been based on the sample design suggested by Ansley J. Coale. In spite of its limitations, both in theory (assump- tion of independence in reporting by the two agencies) and in practice (difficulty of individual event-by-event matching and of definitions of population and vital events), this formula remains a powerful tool for increasing the reliability of observed vital rates. ÀA promising apoproech, which has yet to be tried out, would be to take a sub-sample, the size of which can be determined on the basis of cost and accuracy, from which adjustment factors could be built up by the formula and then applied to the original survey data by regression or ratio estimates: this can also be integrated with recall analysis, to further improve the accuracy of the data, The formula has recently been generalized to apply to data obtained from more than two agencies. Use of statistical methods for measurement and testing 13. Methods of obtaining estimates from quantitative data are essentially statistical in nature. It appears, however, that there are demographic fields in which available statistical tools have not been utilized to the fullest extent. For example, the usefulness of factor analysis in isolat- ing the principal components in the factors affecting vital data has only recently been demonstrated by the work of the United Nations Economic Com- mission for Latin America and other researchers, and this despite the known limitations of this method in interpretation of results. Stochastic processes are more frequently used, but their use could further be developed, Two examples of statistical tools which might become useful in demographic analysis are the discriminatory analysis of R.A. Fisher and the generalized distance of P.C. Mahalanobis (which help in distinguishing population groups in regard to measured demographic characteristics). 811 14. There is a similar difficulty in testing significance of differences in estimates obtained from sampling and other enquiries, after the data pass through a number of adjustment processes. In such complex analyti- cal situations, general statistical tools fall short of the requirements. One way out of the theoretical difficulty would be to have the enquiry arranged in the form of a number of inter-penetrating sub-samples, so that the sub-sample estimates of the demographic parameters would remain comparable when subjected to the same transformations and adjustments: the testing of sectoral, time differences, etc., is facilitated by the technique of fractile graphical analysis (developed also by Mahalanobis on basis of inter-penetrating sub-samples). Some work has been done on these lines in India, Linear programming techniques could also be developed in the studies on population policies, where the different factors could be quantified, Longitudinal studies 15. In a true longitudinal study, the same group of persons is observed over the time horizon for their behaviour concerning fertility, mortality and migration. One sub-national longitudinal study on infant mortality was made in India by K.N. Mitra and others and there is a great scope for such studies on a nation-wide basis in the Asian countries. 16. “While from the retrospective data collected at a present moment in time, the fertility history of the extant mothers or couples can be built UP, this has two limitations: first, adjustments have to be made for the persons who are no longer alive, and second, the retrospective fertility history data would be subject to recall lapse. However, when adjustments for both factors are made, the data collected can prove valuable in providing fertility trends when there is no other source of obtaining fertility histories. The major study in the region was made by A. Das Gupta and others at the Indian Statistical Institute. Computation of working life expectancies 17. Given the life table functions and the proportion of population economically active, at each age (or in each age-group), the average future life in the labour force and the average age at separation from the labour force could be computed along with the proportion of working to total life expectancy, at each age. Such items have been computed for India at the Indian Statistical Institute and could be computed for a large number of Asian countries. Use of population models 18. The concept of stable population started with the classic paper by A.J. Lotka, and was further developed to the quasi-stable concept at the Princeton Office of Population Research by Ansley J. Coale and others, at the United Nations Population Division and elsewhere. Model life 812 tables were computed at the United Nations for situations where the data were lacking or grossly defective, and have proved to be one of the most used tables. Regional model life tables, that make investigations of the ¿effects of different mortality patterns possible, have recently been prepared by Coale and P. Demeny at Princeton and have already found ap- plications to the data of India and Pakistan. However, an uncritical application of the: theories has sometimes been seen to lead to absurd results; this is due, as Brass pointed out, to the fact that enough attention is not given to the sources of errors: use of an unsuitable mortality pattern as a modeh; deviations from the quasi-stable conditions of constant fertility and only modest change in mortality; and errors in basic data. When account is taken of the possible sources of error, the technigues not only gives substitute measures of demographic parameters when the direct measures are lacking, but can also map out the effects of future paths of the components. Such population projections for the dif- ferent regions, sub-regions and countries have recently been worked out by the United Nations Population Division, The use of high-speed com= puters has widened the scope of such exercises, A matrix system has, for example, been developed at the University of Chicago by N. Keyfitz which, given an acceptable set of age-specific fertility and mortality rates, makes possible the computation in 50 seconds of a whole series of stable population indices, including life tables, birth rates, death rates, age distributions, and population projections. In the population projections the factors of migration and urbanization could be built into the theore- tical models and applications. 19. A demographic growth survivorship model was used by A. Das Gupta and others to the population data of Thailand for adjustment of inadequate datas it did not require any assumptions concerning the actual levels of fertility and mortality and its applicability could be tested in other Asian countries without adequate data. Use of electronic computers 20. The last topic brings us to the use of electronic computers in demo- graphic analysis in general, Some work on simulation models has already started at the Demographic Training and Research Centre in Bombay (India), and further developments can be expected in this direction: the approach could be either macro-type or micro-type, the latter utilizing the cohort approach and treating the demographic events in the fertility history of each individual woman as a multiple stochastic process. As in the use of stable and quasi-stable population theories, a valid application of such models would require a robust framework and error-free basic data, 813 Annex Table 1. Percentage of population for whom fairly accurate information is available Information on Population Crude General Crude Infant Life Re gion size (from birth fertili- death morta- expectancy a census rate ty rate rate lity at birth or a sample) rate Asia (excluding a Mainland China) 95 9 61 87 72 63 Oceania” 100 84, 81 81 81 80 Latin America? 100 99 60 99 97 85 Africa” 90 86 67 56 51 51 Table 2, Percentage of population for whom fairly accurate crude birth rates are known according to source of data Complete Sample "Reverse survival" estimates Other Total Rogi n regis- survey Relati- Data of Sub- esti- o tration data vely low or total mates statis- accura- uncertain tics te data accuracy Asia (excluding a Mainland China) 12 66 5 10 15 1 9 Oceania” 8, - = - - = 8, Latin America? 10 - 56 3 59 - 99 Africa” 3 36% 4 10 2 22 86 a/ The countries included are those listed under eacn region in Table 2 of the United Nations Demographic Yearbook, 1965, excepting Mabnland China, b/ The countries included are:- Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, British Honduras, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Equador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Canal Zone, Paraguay, Peru, Surinam, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay, Venezuela, ¢/ Mjusted birth rates are also available, computed (i) on basis of comparison of the total and the cumulated current fertility data for about 22 per cent of the population, and (ii) on basis of recall analysis for about 3 per cent of the population, 814 FURTHER APPLICATIONS OF AGE STRUCTURE MODELS by Ajit Das Gupta Consultant, Calcutta x "5 Pr 1. The growth survivorship relationship, Py = Poe .e o Pr , Py being the population at age X, g the growth rate and x the force of mortality at age X over the period covered by the age range (the second exponential to the right side of the equation denoting the probability of survival from age at origin to age X), was eerlier utilised by us to establish the population age structure mode14 x log Py = log Py - (e + Po) x- a * Po eee when higher derivatives of P could be ignored, and the conditions were near stable for the period. 2. The model was first applied to adjust the 0:4 age group posulation of Thailand as reported at census 1960, since substantial underenumeration of infants had occurred at the census2d The model has been found efficient also in interpolating for single year age population from known grouped age population numbers; the interpolation (or graduation) with the help of the model moreover lent itself to convenient computer operatio 3. tension t i-stable iti : Quasi-stable conditions under which the birth rate remained substantively unaltered but the growth rate accelerated from progressive improvement in mortality, were more typical of the developing world. Under simple but sufficiently realistic assumptions about the age distribution of mortality and progressive decline of mortality, the run of the age structure is examined here, and the age structure model extended to quasi-stable conditions. * Author is grateful to Shri Suranjan Sen Gupta for comments and assistance received. 1/ Use of Structural Models in Interpolation for Single Age Populations’ by Ajit Das Gupta and Suranjan Sen Gupta (1966), under publication. 2/ ®Population Perspective of Thailand' by Ajit Das Gupta, Samruay Chotechanapibal, Thip Chalothorn, Wiwit Siripak (1965), !Sankhya!, Series B, Vol. 27. 815 4. Assuming that the force of mortality in the relevant age range declined at exponential, rate i, so that the force of mortality at age X at time t, tp, = e 15. the death rate at time t will be tà=—a.e"*", as the death rate was The population weighted average of the force of mortality and the average was not sensitive to slight changes of weight effected by decline of mortality. The growth rate at time t will be given by tg =p = tamb. d.e”it,b being the steady birth rate. If further the simple assumption of Gompert about the shape of the force of mortality by age, py = B.cX, be adopted then tay = B.eXlogee - it, 5. Under quasi-stable conditions, therefore, the growth survivorship relationship could be written as, X - 2.070 (xg = Ty) 0x ee. (2) From which we have, X , 0, -iX x log Py = 108,7 -/ o (b-"d.e ax LJ > y e Lax 2 0, X 0 X X(log c-i = log Py = eX = i. a. Enf Aloe, ) ax 2 2 - 1088 = Cov px =X + 15 9-0) -. 0) ignoring terms involving higher orders of i or log c. It is thus established that the same form of the age structure model, log Py = A + BX + CX2 is also valid for quasi-stable conditions. 6. Comparison of formula (3) with formula (1) shows that in moving fromstable to quasi-stable conditions, when mortality starts improving at exponential rats ó thegpopulation age structure gets flattened by the factor of 5 iX Cho - 9), at the level of approximation adopted, in the age range where Jp happens to exceed the population death rate. Te It is interesting to note that the survival and mortality factors used in the quasi-stable conditions are basically cohort or generation factors; and therefore mortelity factors derived from longitudinal comparison of survivors as in the Indian census life tables, or the life tables computed by similar technique for Thailan 2/ are more appropriate for application of the formula. 3/ The century old Gompertz formula is the first known attempt to find a law of mortality; for more sophisticated formulas, like Perks', reference may be made to Journal of the Institute of Actuaries, London. 816 8. Graduation of deaths by age : D, the deaths reported at age X, could be expressed as Pye Prat + applying the age structure model and the Gompertz formula, therefore, = À ; 2 , TY log Dy = 1og Pye Prag = À + BX + CX + log B' + (X4%)10g c 2 =A +B, X+C.X, say A second degree curve in age thus provides a good fit also to the logarithms of the deaths by age. Such graduation has been successfully tried of the deaths reported by age in Trinidad and Tobago, where vital registration is reted as complete but the quality of age reporting is not so accurate, and chance fluctuation of the events of deaths is relatively high from the small size of the population. 9. Estimation of shortfall in young labour force aces : Theoretically, there should be an optimum age structure corresponding to a particular employment structure, the age structure leading to development of suitable employment structure. In actual experience, an economic structure is able to absorb a great deal of deviation from the ootimum age structure which built it. However, shortages at labour force entry ages are likely to give rise to significant problems of labour power deployment. Such problem came to the surface in few ECAFE countries, Hong Kong for example, from effects of world war II. 10. The reporting of ages is sufficiently accurate in Hong Kong and the age distribution reported at census 61, reproduced in Table 1% brings out clearly the serious shortfall in the age group 15:19. The extent of the shortfall could be estimated by fitting of age structure models either to the younger, or the older run of age groups lor preferably a combination of both the ranges), if the population reported at these ranges were unaffected and natural. But in the case of Hong Kong, from the impact of brisk migration, the young adult ages 25 onwards cease to indicate the natural run of age structure; only the young age groups below 15 years could therefore be used for the estimation of shortfall at ages 15:19. Table 13 Population (000) of Hong Kong census 1961, by age group age group 0:4 5:9 10:14 15:19 20:24 25:29 30:34 500.7 425.4 351.0 165.2 203.0 254.4 263.7 4/ Demographic Yearbook 1963, Table 5, United Nations (New York) 817 11. The age structure model fitted to the three younger five-year age group populations ak 014, 5:9 and 10:14, gave the equation, Py = 2.724364 - .011874X - .000254X“, which rendered 281.3 and 218.9 thousands as estimates for the age groups 15:19 and 20124 respectively. Compared to these expected values, there was thus a shortfall of about 40 per cent in the population of the age group 15:19 (age group 20:24 of 1966) which should have shown up in short supply of candidates for training or work in less popular or less paying occupations (so far as not made up by migration from outside). The estimate of shortfall could be done in single year ages too. 12. Graduation to adjust for bias of ave reporting : Spurious shortfall of population at the labour force entry ages 15319 appears in the reported age distribution in India and few other countries of the region from bias in reporting aces. The incidence of the bias is easily detected by the consistency of the pattern of bulges and troughs in the age distribution over the series of censuses. Because of the rounding up errors and the bias, neither the younger set of age groups, nor the older set, could be used exclusively to graduate the age range. Fitting of the age structure model to the whole set of five year age group population, from age O to 34 or 39 say, by the method of least squares would be appropriate in such situation. 13. Some properties of natural age distribution 3 Since the age structure ppder ghoble (and quasi-stable) condition conform to the model Py -e+ + , if PX and Py represent two different stable age distributions, the composite distribution P_+ P! will not represent a stable age distribution. The corollary follows that «en significant differential in fertility and mortality exist between sections of a population, it will not attain stable age structure. The composite distribution Py. PY on the other hand will present a stable age structure. 818 A Minimum Program for the Estimation of Basic Fertility Measures from Cen- suses of Population in Asian Countries with Inadequate Demographic Statistics Paul Demeny University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Mich., U.S.A. I. Observations on Asian demographic statistics 1. Almost two decades have now passed since the first issue of the United Nations Demographic Yearbook has made its appearance. Comparisons of the tables relating to the population of Asia which can be found in the first volume with those contained in the more recent issues permit any possessor of the Yearbooks to get a quick picture of the progress at- tained in Asian demographic statistics during the past twenty years. The picture admittedly is a superficial one, yet, without question, is broadly indicative of what has or has not been achieved. While improvement is undeniable the overwhelming impression one receives from the comparisons is the continued gross inadequacy of information concerning even the most basic demographic measures in much of Asia. 2. This state of affairs is particularly disturbing if one considers the advances that were made during the same period in developing or re- fining techniques of demographic measurement presumed to be applicable under the conditions that obtain in the majority of the countries of that continent. A possible explanation is that, numerous conferences to the contrary, there is a lack of effective communication between scholars and practical men working in this field. If so, much higher returns are likely to accrue in the coming years to activities that establish such communica- tion than to further elaboration of the theoretical equipment. Obviously there can be little use made of the new estimating techniques as long as the output of basic statistics that these techniques require remains piti- fully small. 3. Not infrequently, however, the blame for the inadequacy of suit- able basic statistics is laid simply to the meagerness of the total funds that are being invested in the production of demographic statistics in Asia. But before a case is made for an increase of the total effort in such endeavors, the allocation of the available resources among various alternative uses should be scrutinized. While cost-effectiveness calcu- lations are made exceedingly difficult by the fact that many types of 819 population statistics are also needed and used for purposes other than supplying demographic measures, it is apparent that such allocation is far from being optimal, particularly in those countries of Asia where the ex- isting statistics are least adequate. 4. Consider, for example, the statistics necessary for calculating the birth rate. The conventional method presupposes the availability of two kinds of data: on the one hand, data on the stock of the population from which the births originate as recorded in a census, and, on the other hand, data on the flow of births as provided by vital registration. It is the latter type of data that is typically missing or is seriously deficient (and deficient to an unknown degree) in the countries referred to above. Establishment of a general system of birth records and improvement of the system until it achieves full coverage should be an objective in any modern state. Experience shows, however, that when the existing deficiencies are serious, the process of improvement is bound to be a slow one. In the light of such experience one might ponder the following facts. The popu- lation of Asia (excluding the U.S.S.R.) around 1965 was some 1.8 billion. If Mainland China and Japan -- each of which constitutes a case sui generis -- are also excluded the remaining population is slightly over 1 billion. The U.N. Statistical Office evaluates the quality of birth registration by approximate degree of completeress ; countries with birth records deemed to be at least 90 per cent complete receive a "C" code. According to the Dem- ographic Yearbook of 1965 there are 9 countries or territories in Asia as circumscribed above that have birth records of 'C" quality; Aden, the Bonin Islands, Brunei, Hong Kong, Israel, Malaya, the Ryukyus, Singapore, and Taiwan. Together they represent some 28 million people, less than 3 per cent of the total. It is unlikely that birth records of the tradi- tional sort will yield much useful demographic information in the coming one or two decades for the remaining 97 per cent, even under the most op- timistic assumptions. Applying any realistic discount rate to the "value" that may be attached to the future data-yields one must conclude that in- vestment in vital statistics of the traditional kind, qua demographic statistics, is an investment of questionable soundness indeed. 5. As an alternative, statistics permitting the calculation of the birth rate can be obtained by following either of two main approaches. The first of these essentially accepts the classical method with the exception that a continuous system of vital registration (combined with frequent periodic censuses) is established within the confines of a sample only. The second approach is distinguished by the fact that it dispenses with the continuous observation of births, relying instead on statistics ob- tained -- at least conceptually -- at a single point in time. The data- collecting effort may cover the whole population, as is the case in a census, or it may be restricted to a sample. It can be shown that between these two methods the first is the more powerful and versatile one, but also that the first method is riskier, yields results slower, and is more expensive, primarily because it requires the maintenance of an adminis- 820 trative apparatus at a sustained high level of efficiency. Unquestionably, the short run strategy for estimating basic demographic quantities must rely on the exploitation of censuses and surveys in most Asian countries. 6. The suboptimality of resource allocation in obtaining statistical information is clearly indicated by the relatively small efforts that went into sample surveys up to the present in Asia. Moreover the work that did get accomplished often tended to support the contention made above concern- ing the lack of correspondence between theoretical work and practical sta- tistical design, and often tended to indicate misallocation of resources within single survey operations. Some examples, even if they cannot be elaborated here, may illustrate these points. Thus in Turkey, although owing to the absence of birth registration even the most elementary measures of fertility were unknown, the only nation-wide sample survey organized thus far has concentrated to measuring fertility in a "sophisticated" man- ner patterned directly on the experience of Western fertility surveys. Notably, while a wealth of fertility information was obtained for married women in the childbearing age, the survey failed to provide e.g. such simple but vital measures as the proportions married at each age, even though the sample was one of households. As a result the applicability of techniques that are relatively insensitive to reporting errors was seriously curtailed, hence the usefulness of the fertility survey was greatly dimin- ished. Predictably, much of the sophisticated information that was obtained proved to be of little value due to the presence of gross biases not amena- ble to correction. Another example is supplied by the only demographic sur- vey thus far that covered a non-urban population in the Republic of Vietnam (incidentally a country where no national census or survey has ever been taken but where the collection of vital statistics, amounting to little more than statistical noise, has a long tradition duly enshrined in volu- minous publications). That survey included questions on fertility, notably on children ever born and surviving and on the number of children born in the 12 month period preceding the interview. Most of the results of the inquiry were meticulously tabulated and published in great detail, expe- cially by sub-regions; often far beyond the limits obviously imposed by sampling errors. The information on fertility however was not even pro- cessed. The number of similar examples appears to be limited only by the paucity of surveys ever taken in Asian countries with inadequate statistics. 7. Up to now the record of Asian censuses as instruments to compen- sate for the lacking vital statistics has been equally disappointing. There has been in general a clear tendency to follow with varying selectivity the patterns set by Western censuses in the content of the questionnaire and in the scope of tabulations. At least part of the reason for this must have been the apparent reluctance of international agencies to recommend to Asian countries the collection of statistics not usually obtained by coun- tries with less limited resources. But such considerations are hardly re- levant to the decision on the optimal content of a census in Asia. It is well to remember that the Western (European) censuses have assumed their 821 modern form at a time when the corresponding vital registration systems had already achieved a high degree of completeness and sophistication. 8. It is true that no simple and general rules and recommendations can be made for the content of censuses that are to be followed whenever vital statistics are lacking or grossly deficient. In particular the re- lative effectiveness of sample surveys and census statistics in establish- ing fertility measures is likely to differ from country to country. For collecting highly detailed information on fertility sample surveys are to be preferred; indeed it i® not feasible to carry out such investigations in a census. Rut for obtaining basic population parameters the knowledge of which is desired for many subdivisions of the population, censuses are competitive with, and often clearly superior to, special purpose sample surveys. Therefore in the coming round of censuses to be taken in Asia around 1970 a great opportunity offers itself. Census agencies could boldly seek to improve on the past record by collecting data not now avail- able because of deficient vital registration, past and present. The ur- gency to take such action is heightened by the anticipated changes in fertility for the coming decades. The 1970 census in a number of countries may be the last one in which a thorough study of pre-decline fertility is feasible. What are then the data on fertility that should be, and real- istically could be, collected in these censuses? Or, to pose the question from the point of view of the census taker who is supposed to turn out a well defined final product (i.e. printed tables): what are the tabula- tions that these censuses should supply to permit the estimation of basic fertility measures? The remaining part of the paper seeks to outline the essentials of the answer to this latter question. II. Methods of estimating fertility from census data 9. Underlying the recommendations set out in Section III of this paper is a comparative evaluation of the merits and demerits of the exist- ing techniques for estimating fertility from census-type data with special reference to Asian conditions. While it is fully appreciated that a de- clarative statement to this effect is hardly an adequate defense of the proposed program nothing more can be attempted here than the briefest in- dication of the nature of the techniques that would be utilized should the 822 program be adopted. For a full discussion of the relevant issues the reader must be referred to the technical literature. 10. There are two more or less distinct ways by which a survey taken at a single point of time can supply information on the rates of flows of vital events, notably of births. First, since the structure of a popula- tion at any given moment is an imprint of past events, methods can be de- vised by which the level of past birth rates implied by an observed age distribution may be deduced. Second, a direct attempt may be made in the survey to establish a record of past events based on recollection on the part of respondents. 11. As to the applicability of the first approach two approximative propositions are of immediate importance: (a) if fertility has been roughly constant in the past, the age distribution can be described by a stable population defined by that fertility and recent mortality; and (b) whether fertility has been constant or not, the proportions of children in a population (say, the ratio of children under five or under ten to the total population) is a function of recent fertility and recent mortality. To each of these two propositions corresponds a method of estimating fer- tility from the age distribution. The first one is the method of stable populations, appropriate typically in populations where voluntary limi- tation of family size is not practiced; the second is the method of re- verse survival, applicable when past constancy of fertility cannot be as- sumed. Since the overall shape of an age distribution is always dominated by past fertility, i.e., the influence of mortality is secondary, informa- tion on the age distribution alone is sufficient to indicate the nature of the underlying fertility, including its recent general level. But quan- titatively such an estimate will be as a rule too vague to be of much practical usefulness. Hence, besides the record of the age distribution itself, both of the methods mentioned require some explicit or implicit information on recent mortality. It can be shown that in order to calcu- late reliable estimates of fertility from the age distribution, what is primarily needed is a knowledge of the level of early childhood mortality. 1/ = See in particular William Brass, Methods of Obtaining pasic Demographic Measures where Census and Vital Statistics Systems are Lacking or Defec- tive, United Nations, World Population Conference 1965, Bakcground Paper (this source also gives detailed bibliography of the literature up to 1965). A technical manual by Ansley J. Coale and Paul Demeny under the title Methods of Estimating Basic Demographic Measures from Incomplete Data will be published later this year by the United Nations. Also, relevant material will be found in William Brass et al., The Demography of Tropical Africa, Princeton University Press, Princeton (forthcoming) and in Ansley J. Coale and Paul Demeny, Regional Model Life Tables and Stable Populations, Princeton University Press, Princeton (1966), 823 In the absence of vital registration recent early childhood mortality may be reliably estimated from ratios of children still alive at the time of the census to children ever born reported at the same time. 12. The second approach -- utilization of reports on past events based on recall -- is usually plagued by reference period errors that reflect the difficulty of locatíng the exact time of occurence of past events with pre- cision. However with respect to birth reports it is possible to make a correction for the reference period error by using certain logical rela- tions that exist between the number of births during a specified period and the number of children ever born as reported by women in a census. Al- though both these sets of data suffer from biases of an unknown magnitude hence, taken in isolation, each is of limited value, a combination of the strong elements in each set is possible and as a result an estimate of the birth rate and of other measures of fertility can be obtained. III. A minimum tabulation program for Asian censuses 13. The various estimating techniques referred to in the preceding section should be considered complementary rather than alternative tools for obtaining estimates of fertility. In general when the reliability of the basic data is demonstrably weak, or is at least open to suspicion, it is highly desirable that the same quantities be estimated on the basis of several methods. The same principle suggests that statistics should be collected and tabulated in sufficient detail not only to permit the ap- plication of various alternative methods, but also to facilitate checks within the methods themselves. For example, calculation of the birth rate from the age distribution should be based, if possible, on separate estimates of the male and female birth rate derived by means of sex- differentiated estimates of child mortality. The inconsistencies that are inevitably found when such procudures are applied will help the analyst to isolate points of weakness and of strength in the data, hence to arrive at more reliable estimates. 14. Some flexibility and ranking of priorities is nevertheless called for even within what might be called a minimum program. ¿A basic "menu" of tabulations determined by the data needs of basic techniques for the esti- mation of fertility may be set forth as follows (identification by a capi- tal letter is for purposes of reference only): A Population by age, sex, and marital status, B Women by age; and total number of children born alive, for each age group of women, C Women by age; and total number of children living, for each age group group of women. BX Women by parity and by age. BB Women by age; and total number of children born alive, for each age group of women, by sex. 824 CC Women by age; and total number of children living, for each age group of women, by sex. D Number of women who have had a live birth during the 12 month preceding the census, by age. DX Women by length of time that has elapsed since the birth of their last live born child, by age; separately for currently married women and other women. In all these tables age classifications are assumed to be based on standard 5-year age groups: for all ages in Table A, and at least for ages 15-49 in the other tables. In Table BX parities at least below parity 8 should not be grouped. In Table DX column headings might be: "no live birth ever"; 0-2 months; 3-5 months; ...15-17 months; 18-23 months; 24-29 months; 30 months or more. 15. From the above list variants of a minimum tabulatíon program may be selected. The number of meaningful combinations is limited by needs of the various methods for joint tabulations. Also, Tables BB, CC, and DX evidently imply Tables B, C, and D; given the former the latter do not con- stitute separate tables. (Table BX implies Table B provided parities are given in full detail which is seldom the case. In practice Table B would be internally computed at the data processing stage rather than obtained from BX). Table 1 lists the five basic variants of a minimum program. "Table 1" Variants of a minimum tabulation program for obtaining measures of fertility from a census. (Letter-codes refer to list given in text). I II III IV Vv A A A A A B B BB BB BB C C CC CC CC BX BX BX BX D DX 16. While the analytical possibilities would differ appreciably de- pending on which of the five specific programs indicated in Table 1 has been carried out, the feasibility of deriving a strong fertility estimate in each instance from the same source (from reported age distribution plus child mortality) gives underlying unity to the various approaches that would be adopted in the analysis. To have less than Variant I, which is suggested here as a minimum minimorum, would drastically curtail the field of maneuver for the analyst. On the other hand to go beyond the program suggested in Variant V (e.g. by introducing age at marriage as a variable or, and preferably, by preparing parity-specific tabulations of Table DX) would certainly be desirable but would involve a major step towards higher complexity and cost. * 825 17. The definition of the tables as given above imply that data on fertility are to be obtained from each woman from age 15 to at least age 50. Provided that fertility outside wedlock is negligible single women may be excluded from the tabulations on fertility performance. However women who were previously married should be included, except possibly in Tables D and DX. If fertility tabulations are limited to ever-married women it is particularly important that type-A tables be prepared in each instance, as is suggested in Table 1. 18. Even apart from reporting errors Tables D and DX as defined here do not strictly speaking supply numbers of children born during the 12- month period preceding the census although that is the statistics required for the calculation of the birth rate, age specific fertility rates, etc. The numbers obtained from Tables D or DX will be smaller because of (a) multiple births, (b) instances of more than one confinement resulting in live birth during the 12-month period, and (c) death of some mothers who have had a live birth in the reference period but who have died prior to the census. The suggestion to make the tabulations of the form indicated above is based on three considerations. First, relatively simple corrections can be made for the factors just listed. Second, the distribution of the length of interval since last birth is an important fertility information on its own merit. Third, the quality of data is likely to be better if, instead of directly asking each woman the number of children she has had during some specified period (such as a year) preceding the census, each women is asked when she last had a live birth. 19. The suggestionspresented in this paper concerning special tabu- lations to be included in the program of Asian Population censuses were determined by the stated objective of measuring fertility. However, as was pointed out earlier, the main prerequisite of high-quality census- based fertility estimates is an estimate of childhood mortality. Pro- visions for obtaining the latter were accordingly incorporated into the suggestions As a consequence the scope and content of a minimum program is left unchanged if estimation of child mortality is sought also for its own sake. Indeed this is true even if the objective is broadened to the esti- mation of vital rates in general since no acceptable direct method exists by which from a single census either adult mortality or the rate of natural increase could be obtained. These quantities can of course be estimated from the calculated child mortality via model life tables but this is an unsatisfactory procedure. If an earlier census is available natural in- crease and adult mortality can be derived directly but only for the popu- lation as a whole. In contrast, fertility and child mortality measures can be estimated from census data also for a great variety of sub-populations, even if usually with somewhat lesser accuracy. No recommendations were made in this paper concerning the subdivisions for which the tabulations should be prepared. The hope may be expressed however that national programs would go beyond the usual provincial and rural-urban classifications and cover also other meaningful groupings, such as defined by race, language, relig- ion, or social status. 826 THE ADVANTAGES OF THE ELECTRONIC COMPUTER FOR POPULATION RESEARCH IN ASIA Mrs. Adriana C. Regudo, Research Instructor, Population Institute, University of the Philippines Dre Edmund M. Murphy, Assistant Professor, University of Chicago, Research Associate, Population Institute, University of the Philippines le The use of the electronic computer is spreading rapidly throughout Asia. Business, government, and universities are taking advantage of its speed and accuracy to handle their accounts and process their data. The com- puter can be of equal value to demographic researchers in Asian countries. Eight months ago the University of the Philippines Population Institute switched from hand tabulation to computer processing of its survey data. The results have been very encouraging, and we now feel that any researcher with a minimum of resources can greatly increase the scope and accuracy of his research while reducing his lag time and costs by switching to the computer. 2. This may seem at first to pe an exorbitant claim. Economists are always telling us to emphasize capital saving rather than labor saving tech- niques; certainly able and accurate clerks are available at a low price, and few researchers can afford to buy a computer. In addition, several of our gentleman staff have questioned the advisability of replacing 20 pretty girls with 1 ugly machine. 3. However, our experience has shown that the advantages far outweigh the disadvantages. It is not necessary to buy a computer. In most countries the large computer manufacturers have set up data processing centers which will sell the necessary computer time at reasonable rates. In addition, gov- erment otfices, universities and businesses who have computers will often allow their machines to be used after office hours for a reasonable fee. Nor is it necessary to have the most elaborate machine to do the tabulation work and the statistics that make up the bulk of demographic work. Although the work at the University of the Philippines, Population Institute is now being processed on an IBM 360 at a government office, the work was first done on an older IBM 1401 computer at IBM's Manila data processing center. 4, Our 827 experience in processing survey data on the computer has clearly demonstrated the following advanuages over other methods: 5e ae be d. fe ge Let be The work produced by the computer is much more accurate than that of previous methods. The lag time between the completion of the survey and the appearance of usable tables is greatly reduced. The scope of tables produced by the computer can be much broader. More complex operations and tabulations can be performed. By eliminating much of the repetitive low level work, the computer permits a researcher to con- centrate his time, personnel, and money on design and analysis of his research. The computer permits the researcher to take advantage of the many repetitive aspects of his work by using standard questionnaires, self-coding forms, standard data card formats, etc. Finally, it is cheaper to have a computer do the work. us look at these advantages in greater detail: Accuracy -- Computers as well as people do make mistakes. But we must remember that although computers do on occasion make an error, people are certain to make mistakes. If the instructions given a computer are correct and if the program has been thoroughly tested, the computer will give accurate results as opposed to clerks, wno in spite of detailed instructions will commit both random and systematic errors. Rechecking of tables and calculations adds a considerable amount of time to that spent in preparation, and even the most thorough checking does not insure that the work is free of errors. Checkers often fail to recognize errors made by others and sometines add their own. Speed -- Statistical tables that once took months and months of hand tabulation can be calculated in a matter of mimtes by the computer. What often happens to studies depending upon manual tabulation is that the Ce 828 data are all but obsolete by the time the results are ready, (The Population Institute has undertaken surveys in four municipalities and in the city of Manila since 1963. In all this time, 3 years since the first survey, only about 50 one- and two-dimensional vabulations were completed and these were from just the first two surveys. In contrast, we now have all of the basic tables from all five of the surveys, consisting of more than 60 tables for each survey including three- and four-dimen- sional tables, per cent distributions, and tables of means such as tables giving average number of children ever born by age of mother, duration of marriage, income and education. And this was done in less than two months. Most of this time was spent in the designing of the tabulations and in the writing, punching and verifying of computer control cards. ) i. The actual difference between machine and hand tabulation is tremendous. To give a more de- tailed idea of the savings we will compare machine tabulation with a concentrated effort of hand tabulation by the Institute to make preliminary tables for a paper prepared by the director. Thirty-six tables were produced from four of our studies; 24 of these were two-dimen- sional cross tabulations, the remaining 12 were one-dimensional. Each of the studies had a sample size of about 1,500 respondents. Fourteen girls, including two faculty members, worked full-time on tnis project for two weeks. It was estimated that about one half hour of computer time would have been required to turn out the same tables. ii. In addition, the computer tables would not have required checking while the hand tabulations would have been redone, doubling the time to 4 weeks, before publication. (Actually the tables were rerun on the computer for publication.) Thus it would have taken 12 clerks and two re- search associates 4 weeks to equal the output of one-nalf hour of computer time. Greater Scope -- The maximum number of variables with which clerks can confortably and accurately work with is usually two. With more than two variables, the tables can be done but are often full of errors. The time and energy that must be spent in the painstaking de es. 829 calculation and checking of these tables may not be worth the tables obtained. i. The computer program we are currently using produces tables of up to four dimensions or variables. For example, we can have a table by age of wife, marriage duration, education of wife and attitude of wife toward small families. From this master table, three-way, two-way and one-way tables may be obtained. Besides producing tables of up to 4 dimensions, the program can also select the respondents to be included in the table according to a fifth variable. The l-way table mentioned above could be restricted to female respondents. ii. hen tallying for a two dimensional table one of our clerks previously had to look at two different variables for 1,500 coding sheets. With more than two variables to consider, problems were multiplied geometrically. It is probably the tedium of these tasks that led to many of the errors. Computers are immune to the consequences of tedium. Complexity -- We can now derive more complicated and sophisticated measures and tables from our studies than were possiple earlier. No matter how complicated the operation is, once the program is written and tested, the work is as good as donee A computer handles a four-way classification table as easily as a simple frequency count on one dimension. Our basic program produces three kinds of tables -- simple frequency distributions, per cent distributions and tables of means. It is currently being expanded to include stand- ardization of means in each cell by a standard dis- tribution on one or two dimensions, for instance, age of wife and duration of marriage. Before the onset of the computer, this kind of operation would have been inconceivable. Shift of Personnel -- Since the laborious and time-con- suming hand tabulations have been eliminated, the number of girls engaged in low level work has been reduced. No longer is the bulk of our personnel plagued by the mechanical and boring job of counting the number of women who fall into a given cell of a table. They have been shifted to more intensive editing and checking of 830 the questionnaires, to preparing control cards for the computer and to analyzing the results of the surveys. i. During the hand tab days, 86 per cent of the Institute staff was involved in editing, coding and tabulating. This percentage has already been reduced to one-half. This reduction in the number of low-salaried employees makes possible the hiring of better qualified personnel to serve as analysts. £. Repetition -- Many of the problems of demographic research repeat themselves from project to project. Certain types of basic data must always be gathered, certain descriptive tables must always be produced. Since the key to efficient use of the computer is repetition, the computer gives the researcher both the opportunity and necessity to regularize and stand- ardize his procedures tor collecting, coding, punching and tabulating these basic data. ge Costs == One might be willing to pay a good price to obtain all of these benefits, but as a bonus, computer tabulations turn out to be cheaper than hand tabula= tions. We will try to show how much cheaper by a rough comparison; we shall use the example of the 36 hand-tallied tables discussed above to estimate the costs of hand tabulation. This probably underestimates the costs of routine manual tabulation since during this rush period, control and supervision were much tighter and output was probably higher. ie At that time, the 14 girls were paid 2200 (about $50) a month, so the cost of the half month's work involved is P1,400 or approximately $350. (The ten days work is actually less than half a working month but this overestimate is compen- sated by the fact that the two faculty members cost more than P200.) Thus the 36 tables cost ?1,400 and occupied 140 girl days of time. This means that each table cost about 239 (about $10) and 3.9 girl days. With checking of the tables, the costs would be doubled. Using current sala= ries, the above cost per table is an underestimate since the girls have been given a 50% increase. 1/ 1/ If we were to recompute the costs of the tables using the present salaries of the girls which is P300 (about $75) a month, the price per table would increase to P60 (about $15) or P120 for checked tables. 831 ii. How much would the same job cost on tne computer? We bias the comparison against the computer by basing the estimates on the relatively slower 1401 model. It takes about 3 minutes to pass 1,500 cards through the machine. The rental cost of the machine was about 250 per hour since the Institute assumed responsibility for the results. iii, The way our program is written it is not necessary to. pass the cards through the machine once for each table. The program works by making four- dimensional master tables on each pass of the data and aggregating to obtain the three-, two-, and one-way classification tables contained in the master table. Thus from one run we can get 1 four- dimensional table, 4 of three-dimensions, 6 of two dimensions, and 4 mingle dimensionsl tables. ive To produce the 36 tables from 4 studies, eleven computer runs would have been required. This would have taken 33 minutes of computer time and cost about 2253 (about $63) about 27 (about $2) per table as compared to 78 (approximately $20) to produce a similar, checked table by hand. The hand tables cost 10 times as much. vs We have not included expenses for punching the cards because it is difficult to apportion these costs to the 36 tables. The card punching costs would have to be spread over all of the tables extracted from the deck. But even if the 6,000 cards were punched up for just these 36 tables and then burned, the price per table would still be less than P20 (about $5.) The costs for com- puter programming have also been excluded since this one time initial cost should be spread over all tables ever run during the life of the Institute; thus allocated, it is negligible. 6. After setting up our programs the next step was to adapt the rest of our procedures to the requirements of the computer. This task was light- ened by the fact that the Institute was in the middle of a series of 10 basic fertility and migration surveys in selected Philippine areas. The first five of these surveys had experimented with the type of questions to be asked and their wording. With this information it was possible to devise standard questions for the remaining surveys. The minimum list, core items and ex- panded list issued last year by the working party of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population Committee on Comparative Fertility amd 832 and Fertility Planning Surveys were also consulted. These two steps elimina- ted the comparability problem that had necessarily arisen in the experimental worke We are also able to eliminate the open ended questions that had been the bane of our coders. All of the questions on the new, standardized ques- tionnaire are to be pre-coded by the interviewers themselves. Where the earlier questionnaires required months of office coding, we can now devote much of this to more extensive editing and checking of the complete ques- tionnaires. a. To speed up the punching process and reduce the random errors that come from posting and coding, the question- naires were designed so that the data cards could be punched directly from the questionnaire. So now with all the above conveniences, we expect the tabulation of future surveys to be completed within a month's time after the termination of the field work. be Our final step was to design standard data cards so that in all the future surveys, similar data will be punched in the same place on the same data card. For instance, knowledge and use of contraceptive methods will pe punched in columns 47 to 57 of the fourth card in all of our remaining surveys. (See appendix 1 for a sample of a standardized, pre-coded and pre-card designed question. The above mentioned queries on contraceptive knowledge and use have under- gone drastic revisions to incorporate the special features enumerated above. For comparison, we have included an earlier version.) With these standard cards, the control cards needed for our programs need be written only once; applied to another of the surveys, these same control cards will produce exactly the same tables. Tnis feature is so attractive that we are considering recoding some of the earlier surveys to match the new standard cards and codes. 70 This paper was written in the hope that other researchers could profit from our experience and go and do likewise. But we have left to the end the key question, exactly how does one go about it? One is reminded of the scene in Henry IV when Owen Glendower brags, "and I can call up spirits from the vasty deep." and Hotspur answers, "and so can we all, the question is will they come." There is somewhat more to it than the wish. a. Given that computers are relatively easy to find, the problem becomes primarily one of finding programs. There are essentially three ways to obtain computer programs. i. You can pay someone to write programs for you be Ce 833 ii. You can write them yourself iii. You can borrow programs that others have written to do the same kind of work. The first of these is expensive, and the second requires an investment of time and capital, although it is in the long run the cheapest and easiest This leaves the third, the use of borrowed or "canned" programs. Tne path sounds deceptively easy; there are probably hundreds of researcn institutions in tne world with tried and tested demographic programs who would be willing to share their programs, and all of the major computer manmuface turers maintain large libraries of canned programs for the use of their customers. Unfortunately, it is not as easy as it sounds. Tne Population Association of America, for one, for at least the last three years has devoted a session at its meetings to the use of the computer in demographic research. Sharing of programs is always one of the issues, but for all of the offers and good will dis- played very little has been shared. Furthermore, libraries of computer manufacturers are usually barren of anything that could be useful to a demographic researcher. Even if one manages to discover a program listed that might be of help, it often takes months to obtain the detailed documentation of the program, and sometimes the program will be unobtainable because of the company's internal regulations. However, it is our belief that the problems of sharing programs by research institutions is not insurmountable glven the expenditure of sufficient energy and imagina- tion. (Actually the sharing of research techniques is one of the objectives of the Organization of Demographic Associates, an informal group of population research centers in the region.) We believe what is required is a very detailed discussion of the problems and oppor- tunities in developing a system plus the presentation of programs in a very general programing language such as FORTRAN. The programs can then be run on almost any computer, or at worst they can serve as a logical description which can readily be translated into another language. If the project arouses sufficient interest, the Popula- tion Institute will publish a monograph explaining how 834 we set up our system, discussing the problems we faced and now we solved them, and presenting in the FORTRAN language, the computer programs we developed. We hope that by sharing our ex- perience, we can be of assistance to other researchers in the region who may be facing the problems we faced -- long lag times, tabulations showing too little detail, inaccuracies of hand work, and the necessity to train, supervise and pay large numbers of clerks. 835 APPENDIX I FERTILITY SURVEY, PHILIPPINE MUNICIPALITIES, 1967 Code Col. No, hh, There are several different methods nowadays which married couples use te delay and prevent pregnancies, Have you heard of any ef these methods? - (47) 1 2 Yes No a. What methods have you heard? n (CHECK THOSE MENTIONED) = = Rhythm ". Eh - (48) - Withdrawal ". w/a - (49) = Condem .. Cen = (50) = Douche .. De (51) - Diaphragm & jelly ". D&j - (52) - Foam ". Foam - (53) - Suppository or sponge .. Sup = (54) = Oral pill .. Pill = (55) = IUCD .. TUCD = (56) = Sterilization-Male & Female 1. Ster - (57) le For every method mentioned - ASK ,, AND CODE IN APPROPRIATE SPACE - .. (Cole 48-57) .. a.) Have you ever used this methed?'' . 1". LA Yes Ne " “+ b.) Did you find it effective? + LE De you knew '' how it is used?’ te 1 2 | 3 5 v" ry Yes No |{_ Yes Ne 3 V 2. For every method not mentioned, ASK AND CODE IN APPROPRIATE SPACE (Col. 48-57) - Do you remember having heard of cssccocoo 5 6 Yes Ne SURVEY OF URBAN FERTILITY, 1966 Specify other methods here: 7. There are several different metheds kh 8 Y $ a3 3 E q # newadays which married couples use te CONTRACEPTIVE E 0 3 Le 9 5 9» y delay or prevent pregnancies. Have you 2e E J E e a » ever heard of any of these methods? METHODS NÉE EEES «jo o a [7 YES (ask 7a) [J NO (skip te 8) bE E ESTE SO 112 4 15/16) 7 7a. What methods have you heard about? Rhythm (CHECK EACH METHOD THAT RESPONDENT a. Calendar MENTIONS WITH A "1" IN COLUMN 1). b. Thermometer (PROBE) Do you know of any of Withdrawal 7b. (FOR EACH METHOD RESPONDENT Condon MENTIONS) - Did you first hear about this from a doctor (1), Douche a midwife (2), a relative (3), hr a friend or neighbor (4), at some Diaphragm meeting (5), did you read about it |Feam tablet somewhere (6). Suppository (ENTER THE NUMBER FOR THE SOURCE 111 MENTIONED IN COLUMN 2 OF THE Oral p TABLE. IF MORE THAN ONE SOURCE Sponge IS MENTIONED, ENTER THE NUMBER IUCD FOR EACH.) , ps Ring 7c. Have you just heard about this method or do you knew how people Abstinence actually use it? Herbs er Medicines Sterilization Male JUST HEARD (ENTER COLUMN £7 T y 2 IN co 3) Sterilization Female [J KNOWS USE (ENTER 2 IN COLUMN 3) [Other methods 9£8 8. 9% Here are some (other)methods which married couples use to delay or prevent a pregnancy. Have you ever heard about the method? (READ THE QUESTION FOR EACH METHOD THAT HAS NOT ALREADY BEEN MENTIONED BY RESPONDENT) 77 YES (PLACE A 2 IN COLUMN 1 AND ASK 8a) [7 HO (ASK NEXT METHOD UNTIL ALL ARE ASKED) 8a. Did you first hear about this method frem a doctor (1), midwife (2), a relative (3), a friend or neighbor (4), at a public meeting (5), did you read about it some- where (6). (ENTER THE NUMBER FOR THE SOURCE GIVEN INTO COLUMN 2 OF THE TABLE. IF MORE THAN ONE SOURCE IS REPORTED, ENTER THE NUMBER FOR EACH SOURCE). Have you just heard about this methed or do you know how people actually use it? 8b. 77 Just HEARD (ENTER 1 IN COLUMN 3) [7 KNOW USE (ENTER 2 IN COLUMN 3) (ASK NEXT METHOD UNTIL ALL ARE ASKED) Would you like to learn about any of these methods? [7 YES (ask 9a) [7 No (skip to 10) 9a. Do you think your husband would alse like to learn about some method? [7 YES [7 so 10. (ASK THIS ONLY FOR THOSE WHO HAVE HEARD OF AT LEAST ONE METHOD. THOSE WHO HAVE HEARD OF NO METHOD, GO TO 11). Have you and your husband ever tried any method te delay pregnancy or te aveid having any more children? [7 YES (ask 100) / 7 NO (ekip te 11) Which methods have you tried? (CHECK ALL METHODS MENTIONED IN COLUMN 4 OF THE TABLE) 10a. Were you satisfied with this methed? [7 YES (ENTER 1 IN COLUMN 5) {07 NO (ENTER 2 IN COLUMN 5) Did you become pregnant while using this method? [7 YES (ENTER 1 IN COLUMN 6) 7 10d. After which birth did you first use this method? (ENTER THE NUMBER OF THE CHILD IN COLUMN 7) 10b. 10ce NO (ENTER 2 IN COLUMN 6) (SKIP TO BLOCK /7 7) 838 ESTIMATE OF THE AGE STRUCTURE OF GHANA'S POPULATION AN APPLICATION OF THE STABLE POPULATION MODEL?) by JERZY HOLZER B.So. (Econ.), M.Sc. (Statistics), Ph.D. Warsaw CENTRAL SCHOOL OF PLANNING AND STATISTICS CHAIR OF STATISTICS AND DEMOGRAPHY WARSAW POLAND 1. An almost insuperable obstacle to the studies of Ghanaian as well as of many other regions demography is the lack of complete registration of vital evente and lack of correct age and sex distribution of population. The registration of births and deaths has been conducted in only 42 Ghanaian towns and townships during the period 1912-1965. Only 16 percent of the total population in 1960 inhabited the area where registration is compulsory, so it is not surprising that the population and the vital events within this ares are not representative of the total population of Ghana. Also is no distinction between the vital events attributable to residents and non-residents in a given area. The 1960 population census of Ghana produced much demographic infor— mation which was published in different detailed sections. Unfortunately, the basic information on age and sex distributions is not very successful. However, the data collected in the 1948 and 1960 censuses, and all other available estímates compose the basis used to estimate the most probable demographic picture in Ghana today. 2. The establishment of a starting point is of first importance in this type of estimate. The starting point means the basic population. Our assumption is that the total population of the 1960 census which is 6,727,000 (rounded to the nearest thousand)represents the real size of Ghanaian population. Also we have to accept the amount of the general division of Ghana's population as a whole into that Chanaisn Origin and Foreign Origin. 3. The division of the population into two main categories i.e. Ghana- ian Origin (5,900,000) and Foreign Origin (827,000) has a basic impor tance in further estimates. Population of Ghanaian Origin can be treated as "closed" population to compare the age distribution with some theoretical models. As the 839 growth and age structure of "closed" population depends entirely on the natural increase level it is possible to estimate the theoretical popula- tion of Ghanaian Origin in 1948. Moreover assuming changes in the total number of migrants it is possible to estimate the expected total popula— tion of Ghana in 1948. The rate of natural increase for the Population of Ghanaian Origin varied from 2.5% per annum to 3.0% per annum in the 1946- —1960 and before 1948 according to different estimates. These estimates differ according to the assumption of fertility level. Using only two estimates we have established the expected theoreti- cal population of Ghanaian Origin in 1948. The natural increase rate of 2.5% per annum represents Variant A and natural increase rate of 3.0% per annum represents Variant B. 4. The expected population of Ghanaian Origin in 1948 has been estima— ted using the following formula. P where P4960 = 5,900,000 P4048 - — Pa i. = rate of natural ir- (1+ nik hai crease 1000 k = 12 years The Central Bureau of Statistics has estimated that between 1948 and 1960 the net migration reached approximately 365,000. We have no reasons to reject this hypothesis. Therefore, the population of Foreign Origin in 1948 was 502,000 persons. The basic population has been presented in tabl.1. 5. Since the estimated level of mortality in 1960 was 23.3 per 1000 pop- ulation and assuming a very high level of fertility 220 per 1000 women in child bearing age the crude birth rate had to amount to about 50.0 per 1000 population. It is agreed that the level of fertility was constant throughout the period under consideration, but the death rate was obvi- ously higher in the previous period than in 1960. The most probable rate of growth for Population of Ghanaian Origin was wstimated to be not more than 2.5% as an average per year within the period 1948-1960. 6. It is possible to estimate the population in 1950 and 1955 accepting the rate of increase mentioned in table 2. The results of the estimate are given in table 3. The erplanaticus to the table 3: (a)(b) Rate of natural increase (a) 2.2% per annum within the period 1948-19603 (b) 2.5% per annum within the period 1950-1955. (c)(d) It is assumed that one half of the total net migration of 1948-1960 occurred within the period 1948-1955 (7 years) and one half occurred within the period 1955-1960 (5 years). 840 7. The age and sex structure as well as the total population is affected by births, deaths and migration. Using the 1960 Census data the £ze and sex structure of the Population of Ghanaian Origin and of Foreign Origin may be estimated separately. It is most umportant 19 )éistingaish exactly between the two above mentioned types of population’’/. The age and sex dis-— tribution of population of Ghanaian Origin is expected to be affected by births and deaths only. The very small migratary movement of Ghanaian has no significant influence on the age and sex composition. Therefore the hypothesis is that: the age and sex structure of Popu— lation of Ghanaian Origin is similar to that of the stable population (quesi-stable population). Only very limited information is available on migration, therefore the age and sex composition of the Population of Foreign Origin is as- sumed to be constant. Moreover it has been assumed that the natural move- ment of Population of Foreign Origin has no significant influence on the age and sex structure of the Population of Ghanaian Origin because of tribal customs. 8. The first step is to estimate the row age and sex structure of the Population of Ghanaian Origin and Population of Foreign Origin according to 1960 and 1948 Census returns. The above age and sex distribution in 1960 can easily be obtained in quinquennial age groups. To estimate the age and sex distribution of Population of Gheneían Origin in 1948 is a much more complicated problem. The following estimates have been made (a) The age and sex structure of the Population of Foreign Origin in 1948 was estimated assuming that the structure was the same as in 1960. (b) The age and sex structure of the Population of Foreign Origin in 1948 was subtracted from the basic row age and sex distribution of the To- tal Population in 1948 to obtain age and sex distribution of Popula=— tion of Ghanaian Origin. Thus an estimate is obtained but it is necessary to mention that the described estimate uses row census data. 9. Three models of a stable population have been constructed to estimate the age and sex structure of the Population of Ghanaian Origin assuming that: (a) U.N. Model Life Table No. 24 presents the pattern of mortality which represents conditions in Ghana about 1960, a the sex ratio at birth is 1,030, e) the natural increase rate in previous period varied between 2.5% per annum to 3.0% per annum. We have stated after analysis of different models, that the stable population with Rn.i. = 2.75 per annum gives the age and sex distribution nearest to the original data. The comparison of row Census age and sex distribution of the Population of Ghanaian Origin and the stable popule— tion has been presented in the Table 4. 841 The above mentioned theoretical age and ser distribution has been accepted as the most probable age and sex distribution of the Population of Ghanaian Origin in 1960. 10. The sex composition of the population of Ghanaian Origin is obvi- ously incorrect according to the 1960 Census data. There are no reasons to acoept the raw sex composition given in the 1960 Census returns. It is possible to expect quite smooth changes in the sex ratios from one age group to another, because of the natural process of mortality. Therefore the special set of sex ratios, have been used to construct the proper age and sex composition in 1960. For each quinquennial age-group the appro- priate ser-ratio has been applied to the stable population model to obtain the number of males and females separately. 11. The primary method for internally checking any census data consists of comparing such data with other similar data from preceeding censuses. It is well known to be true, that no census taken anywhere in the world has ever been completely accurate, so every quality checking proce- dures possible should be used. In the case of Ghana’s population data, some important suggestions on the age and sex distribution in 1948 and 1960 are found by comparing the population in the appropriate age groups given in the last two successive censuses, together with the theoretical models of the appropriate stable population age and sex distribution. 12. Table 4 shows the estimate of Population of Ghanaian Origin according to year of births given in the last two successive censuses. Moreover, the data on the age and sex distribution of stable population has been included assuming that: (a) Variant A, represents the age composition which was affected by the in- crease rate 2.5% per annum in 1948 as well as in 1960, (b) Variant B, represents the age composition which was affected by the in— crease rate of 2.5% per annum in 1948 and by the increase rate of 2.75% per annum in 1960. As stated before, the theoretical model of stable population with an increase rate of 2.75% per year gives the age distribution nearest to the original data in 1960. Nowever the results show that the differences be— tween Variant A and B of the theoretical age distribution do not devi- ate significantly. Therefore the following discussion deals with Variant A only. The comparison of the age and sex distributions of the above mentioned data gives important suggestions on the most probable age and sex distribu- tion, which are verified by comments from the Report on the 1948 Census. 13. The report on the 1948 census states that: "The attempt to obtain the number of children under one year of age was not very successful; there are obviously too many in areas where Form A was usedand there appear to bee too few in the towns using Form B". The children under one year of age in 1948 were 12 years old in 1960. 842 The appropriate data on Population of Ghanaiau Origin show that the number of 12 years old chiliren counted in 1960 was about 61% lower than the num ber of infants in 1948. It is worth noting that the counted number of 12 year children in 1960 was significantly higher than the number of Children aged 10, 11, 13 and 14 years. In fact it is impossible to accept the mortality of the described uni- verse of children at the mentioned high level during the past 12 years. The comparison of census returns, and the appropriate data of stable population shows that: (a) the counted number of children aged 12 years is a little lower than the expected value in 1960 but (b) the counted number of infants is (obviously) significantly higher than the expected value in 1948. Therefore the hypothesis given in the 1948 Census Report, that the counted number of infants was incorrect is supported. 14. The persons aged 1-15 in 1948 were 13-27 years old in 1960. In 194€ the estimated population figures for the 1-15 years age group give 654,005 males and 613,000 females of Ghanaian Origin and a total population of 2324909 males and 692,000 females. (Figures are given in the nearest thou- sand). The report on the 1948 Census states: "Compared with the numbers in the 16-45 age group these are too high and suggest a considerable overstatement in the 1-16 group. Persons are normally put on the tax roll at age 16 years and fear that the Census might be used for this purpose may have resulted in deliberate under-statement of age. The error is somewhat more for males than for females but may be in the neighbourhood of 100,000 for each sex”. In 1960 the recorded figures on the Population of Ghanaian Origin for the 13-27 years age group were 728 thousands male and 800 thousands females. This means that the number of persons born in 1933-1947 have surprisingly increased by 74 thousands male and 197 thousands females instead of de- clining because of mortality. This assumes that the 1960 Census data is correct and moreover accepts the relatively low difference between the 1960 Census returns and the calculated stable population data in 1960, as an indicator of the much better quality of the 1960 Census data over the 194€ Census data. Therefore, a high understatement instead of overstatement appears to have occurred in the 1-15 age group in 1948. 15. The persons aged 16-44 in 1946 were 26-56 years old in 1960. The Fop- ulation of Ghanaian Origin in the above age group was estimated as 1519 thousands in 1948 and 1551 thousands in 1960. The comparison of the Census data with stable population data gives the following observations: (a) the population of Ghanaian Origin born in 1932-1904 and counted in 1960 is close to the expected number in the appropriate stable population, (b) the population of Ghanaian Origin born in 1932-1904 and counted in 194€ was significantly lower than the expected value. 843 16. The Population of Ghanaian Origin born in 1903 or earlier was lower than the expected number in the stable population in 1948 and higher than the expected number in the stable population in 1960. The population of Ghanaian Origin born in 1903 or earlier is lower by 37.4% in 1960 than in 1948 according to the stable population model. The Census returns give a difference of 21.2% which shows the level of mortali- ty obviously too low for this age group. 17. In conclusion it may be noted: (a) the age and sex composition in the 1948 Census returns was significant- ly incorrect, (b) the age and sex composition from the 1960 Census returns is much better than in 1948 but the data is obviously and significantly incorrect in some age groups, (c) it is not possible to use pure 1948 and 1960 census age and sex distri- bution for economic estimates. 18. As stated before no complete information on general and specific fer— tility level is available in Ghana. Therefore it is necessary consider different theoretical assumptions. Firstly two published estimates in that field are considered. a) The basic set of specific fertility rates has been published in the Economic Bulletin for Africa (Jannuery 1965)4'. b) Dr. Dov Friedlander investigated fertility in five communities in Gha— na during 19612’. The towns (medium and smell size) were chosen from dif- ferent regions of southern Ghana, but the towns were not selected as being representative of these regions. Therefore the specific fertility data as well as general fertility rate does not represent Ghana’s population as a whole. It is sgreed that Dr. Friedlander’s investigations are not representa— tive for Ghana as a whole, bur due to the high correlation between Models A and C these rates may be used as theoretical models to estimate the most probable general fertility rates. 19. Three models of different patterns of specific fertility rates chosen from the two cited scurces, are as follows: MODEL A presents the typical pattern of specific fertility rates in South-African countries MODEL B presents the average level of specific fertility rates obtained from Dr. Dov Friedlander’s research "All rural towns" MODEL C presents the lowest value of specific fertility rates obtained from other sources of information utilized by Dr.Dov Friedlander’s in "All rural towns" investigation. 20. The general fertility rates and crude birth rates have been estinated using three sets of specific fertility rates and four sets of age distribu— tion of women, namely census age distribution of Population of Ghanaian Origin and Stable Population age distribution, assuming rate of growth 2.50%, 2.75% and 3.00% per year. 844 The crude death rate in 1960 was assumed to be 23.3 per thousend, which is the value of the 24 UN Model Life Table. Considering the ferti-— lity rate of Model B the estimated rate of natural increase about 1960 oscillated from 2.45% per annum to 2.88% per annum, because of the differ— ing age compositions. We hypothesied that the most o yo, of vital rates was about 1960 as follows: Rg ; = 27.580, Ry = 50. 830 = 23.350 and R, = 220. 21. To check that hypothesis the number of i which should have occurred in the period 1956-1960 have been estimated using pure census age distribution of Population of Ghanaian Origin and moreover the most probable age distribution of Population of Ghanaian Origin. Then the ex— pected number of deaths which might have occurred from the date of birth to the date of census have been estimated, assuming higher level of mor— tality than in 24 UN Model Life Table. The estimate shows that the number of children aged 0-4 in 1960 should be between 1,075,000 B 1,107,000. The appropriate number of children aged 0-4 is 1,161,000 according to raw census data and 1,080,000 according to the most probable age distribution. Taking into consideration the above disscusion, the following points should be noted: 1) The number of children aged 0-4 obtained in the 1960 Census indicates a higher fertility level than assumed here as the most probable. 2) The number of children aged 0-4 in 1960 obtained in the above mentioned estimate is close to our most probable age distribution. 3) The assumption on the level of mortality has no significant influance on our calculated estimate. In conclusion the set of vital indices given in paragraph 20 has been accepted as the most probable. Moreover the fertility level has been assu— med constant at 220 children per thousand women of childbearing age. The most probable natural increase rate in the period 1948-1960 which averaged 2.5% per annum is reasonable because of the obviously higher le— vel of mortality. 22. Another check on the natural increase rate has been made by estimat— ing the intrinsic rate of natural increase. The net effect of fertility and mortality in a given stable population is called the intrinsic rate of natural increase, to distinquish it from the crude rate of natural in— crease. The level of the intrinsic rate of natural increase depends on: a) the specific fertility level or as an average general fertility level; b) the level of mortality given by the life able, The set of specific mortality rates according to 24*h UN Model Life Tables has been used. The intrinsic rate of natural increase is 27.0 per thousand per year assuming the high fertility rate of model B and 23.9 per thousand per year assuming the low fertility rate of Model C. There is no reason to reject the hypothesis on the level of vital events expressed in 20 because of changes in the mortality level, espe- cially in younger ages. 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 845 FOOTNOTES The paper presents some results of the research in the field of demog- raphy which had been conducted in the INSTITUTE OF STATISTICS, UNIVER— SITY OF GHANA by the author within the period 1963-1966. The full re- sults of the investigation will be published by the INSTITUTE OF $STA- TISTICS. Memorandum on Population Policy for Ghana, Central Bureau of Statistics, Accra (July 1965). The some point of view had been stressed by Frank Lorimer in 1963: ",..quasi-steble techniques cannot be applied efficiently to the repor— ted age distribution of the Ghanaian population until information is published on the characteristics of persons of non Ghanaian Origin li- ving in Ghana at this time". Frank Lorimer, Population Studies (Novem— ber 1963) p. 200. Economic Bulletin for Africa, Vol. V, Jannuary 1965, Economic Commis— sion for Africa, Addis Ababa, p. 58. Dov Friedlander, Measuring fertility in Ghana, paper presented of First African Population Conference, Ibadan, Jannuary 1966. 846 TABLE 1. 1948 RAW CENSUS AND ESTIMATED DATA Total Population Ghanaian Origin | Foreign in in per- in in per- Origin thousands centages | thousands | centages thousands Census 1948 4,119 100 3,617 100 502 Estimate Rn.i. = 2.5% for Ghanaian Origin 4,892 119 4,390 121 502 Estimate Rn.i. - 3.0% for Ghanaian Origin 4,645 113 4,143 114 502 Source: 1948 Census data and our estimates. TABLE 2. THE MOST PROBABLE ESTIMATES OF THE POPULATION SIZE IN 1948 AND THE MOST PROBABLE RATES AND AMOUNTS OF THE POPULATION INCREASE, 1948-1960 Population of Total Tor. Ghanaian Origin | Foreign Origin in 1000's in 1000’s _ Size in 1948 4,890 4,390 502 Size in 1960 6,727 5,900 827 Amount of increase 1948-1960 1,837 1,510 325 Average yearly rate of increase 1948-1960 2.7% 2.5% 4.3% TABLE 3, THE ESTIMATE OF THE POPULATION SIZE IN 1950 AND 1955 pr Population of Total Tos. Ghanaian Origin { Foreign Origin in 1000's in 1000's Size in 1950 5,140 4,590% 550° Size in 1955 5,850 5,190? 6601 TABLE 4. COMPARISON OF CENSUS AGE AND SEX DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION OF GHANAIAN ORIGIN AND STABLE POPULATION Males and Females Males Females “Data | Model | (23) | Songs | one | (5-(6)| Toca” | Model | (8)-09) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 4 1,161 | 1,080 81 574 543 31 587 537 50 5- 9 923 864 59 467 433 34 456 431 25 10-14 622 734 112 326 368 —42 296 366 —70 15-19 480 624 —144 242 312 —70 238 312 74 20-24 507 525 - 18 224 263 -39 283 262 21 25-29 487 438 49 220 219 1 267 219 48 30-34 407 364 43 190 182 8 217 182 35 35-39 314 301 13 155 150 5 159 151 8 40-44 264 248 16 132 123 9 132 125 7 45-49 187 201 - 14 99 99 - 88 102 —14 50-54 155 161 - 6 79 79 - 76 82 -6 55-59 9% 125 - 29 50 61 -11 46 64 -18 60-64 105 93 12 54 45 9 51 48 3 65 192 142 50 27 66 31 95 16 19 TOTAL 5,900 | 5,900 o 2,909 2,943 34 2,991 2,957 34 179 848 TABLE 5. AGE DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION OF GHANAIAN ORIGIN ACCORDING TO CENSUS DATA AND STABLE POPULATION MODEL VARIANT A 2 a E Byron (e)-(st) re ToT (e)-(st) Data Pop. Data Pop. MALE FEMALE 1948-1933 1,587 2,090 503 1,654 1,839 —185 1948 320 171 149 126 145 - 19 1947-1933 1,267 1,919 —652 1,528 1,694 —166 1932-1904 1,519 1,762 —243 1,551 1,561 = 10 1903 AND EARLIER 504 538 — 34 397 337 60 TOTAL 3,610 4,390 —607 3,602 3,737 =135 MALE 1948-1935 812 1,049 237 794 926 —132 1948 158 86 72 66 73 - 7 1947-1933 654 963 309 728 853 125 1932-1904 725 881 -156 759 875 - 26 1903 AND EARLIER 243 260 - 17 179 159 20 TOTAL 1,780 2,190 -410 1,732 1,870 —138 FEMALE 1948-1933 775 1,041 —266 860 913 - 53 1948 162 85 77 60 72 - 12 1947-1933 613 956 =343 800 841 - 41 1932-1904 794 881 - 87 792 776 16 1903 AND EARLIER 261 278 - 17 218 178 40 TOTAL 1,830 2,200 -370 1,870 1,867 3 849 TABLE 6. MODEL SETS OF AGE SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATES MODEL | 15-19 20-24 25-29 | 30-34 | 35-39 | 40-44 45-49 GRR A 200 290 260 210 150 65 30 2.97 B 160 330 280 235 190 110 60 3.36 Cc 150 310 250 230 180 90 30 3.06 TABLE 7. GENERAL FERTILITY RATES AND CRUDE BIRTH RATES ACCORDING TO DIFFERENT ASSUMPTIONS IN 1960 AGE STRUCTURE OF Model of Fertility WOMEN ACCORDING TO A | B | C GENERAL FERTILITY RATES Pure census data 202 222 205 Stable Pop. r=0.0250 196 213 196 Stable Pop. r=0.0275 198 214 197 Stable Pop. r=0.0300 199 215 198 CRUDE BIRTH RATES Pure census data 47.4 52.1 48.0 Stable Pop. r=0.0250 45.4 … 49.2 45.3 Stable Pop. r=0.0275 44.9 - 48.5 44.7 Stable Pop. r=0.0300 44.4 47.8 44,1 TABLE 8. CRUDE NATURAL INCREASE, BIRTH, DEATH AND FERTILITY RATES Enr. By Bp Rp Pure Census Data 28.8 52.1 23.3 222 Stable Pop. r = 0.0250 25.9 49.2 23.3 213 r = 0.0275 25.2 48.5 23.3 214 r = 0.0300 24.5 47.8 23.3 215 850 MEASUREMENT OF FERTILITY, NET REPRODUCTION AND LENGTH OF A GENERATION IN INDIA. G.B. SAXENA Senior Research Officer Office of the Registrar General, India R.K.Puram, New Delhi. (INDIA) 1. A paper so titled appears to be presumptuous, since adequate data do not exist for a proper appraisal. Accordingly, and indirect technique of estimation has been evolved. The results are presented in " Table I ", 2. Though Indian fertility has been the subject of much recent research, yet leaving the National Sample Survey, which conducted an enquiry on the basis of questions asked for a national sample of married couples, probably no other survey is relevant in this respect. Most of the researches based on field data are restricted either to case or regional studies. As such, the results can hardly be accepted as national estimates. Quite often, the differentials in fertility over time, region and groups have been assessed on the basis of crude birth-rates. This in certain cases may work satisfactorily, but is not always so, as it gives a misleading picture, if they are computed from populations of very different age, marital and sex composition, especially in the procreative age-groups. 3. The objects of this paper are two-fold: first, it under=- takes to develop a technique for obtairing the measures of fertility and reproduction in a population where basic data are lacking and second, to work out these measures on an all India level, The estimated measures according to the analytical order ares=- a. Net Reproduction Rate (R)-the extent to which a cohort of women eventually replaces itself under the stabilized schedules of fertility and mortality in a closed population. be. Mean length of a Generation (T). c. Gross Reproduction Rate (G) -the number of daughters expected in the entire reproductive span when no woman in the cohort erer died. Like net reproduction rate it is also a 851 component of the stable population model and is descriptive of the family cycle rather than total population change. de Total Fertility (F)-the expected number of live births to a female in the entire reproductive span. 4, The conventional method of calculating these measures inevitably necessitates first the computation of age specific fertility rates, for which the requisite data are not availavle on an all India level. The present technique seeks to provide these measures on the basis of the age data of the population under study and of the corresponding life table population. In this reference the 1961 census age data (1) and the corresponding life table data (2) have been used and the estimation has been extended to different zones also. The zonal composition of India is as follows:= a. NORTH ZONE: Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, Rajasthan, Delhi and Himachal Pradesh. be EASTERN ZONE: Bihar, Orissa, West Bengal, Assam, Manipur, Tripura, Nagaland & Sikkim. Ce WESTERN ZONE: Gujarat, Maharashtra, Dadar and Nagar Haveli. de SOUTHERN 70NE: Andhra Pradesh, Mysore, Kerala, Madras, Pondicherry, Laccadive, Minicoy and Amindivi Islands. e. CENTRAL ZONE: Uttar Pradesh & Madhya Pradesh. 5. THE PROCESS OF ESTIMATION 5 44 Qe If K= Yc/ % Wessooos0s000000000000000000000 (0) 0 15 Then R is very approximately (3) equal to Ka/K1 A Aatesrorecoracocavocreaan tores id) Where R denotes the net Reproduction rate, C the number of children and W stands for women; the suffixes 'a' and '1' relate to the population under study and the corres- ponding life - table population respectively. be The relation between the mean length of a generation (T) and (4) the net reproduction rate (r) is as followss _ TT R=e necs0a000 0000000000 00c000 000000000000 (A 11) 852 where r is the annual growth rate per person (given) Ce The derivation of G from R 1s not simple and creates a crucial problem. However, a mathematical relation can be derived from the following set of equations: R u2 J p(a) m(a) daccoscoscoccosooceccoocecace (1 u G= f m(a) da ..occcoocccocrcooceoecececacece (Y) ul Where ul and u2 are the lower and upper limits of the child-bearing age respectively; p(a) is the proportion of females surviving from birth to age 'a' and m(a) the proportion of women at age 'a' giving birth to a female child. de Dividing (iv) by (v) we get: u2 u2 R/G= f pCa) m(a) da/ J m(a) da=P(T)........(vi) ul ul Here P(T) represents the probability of survival of a hgh from birth to age T and can be interpolated from the life a Ce Ce F= (1+1/8) G oeocccocoocococoaorcocaccoccea... VÍ) S denotes the proportion of female to male births. ESTIMATED TOTAL FERTILITY, NST REPRODUCTION AND LENGTH OF A GENERATION IN INDIA 6. According to our calculation the total fertility in India works out approximately at 5.6 and the gross reproduction rate at 2.8. These are the rates based on females which include unmarried women and widows also, If these are excluded and the rates are calculated per wife (marital fertility) rather per female, estimates of total fertility and gross reproduction would be adequately high. It is interesting that these estimates are very close to those worked out by Mr. Jain (5) on the basis of quasi-stability. He estimated the total fertility of an Indian woman at 5.5 and gross reproduction 2.7. 853 tt Table 1 " TOTAL FERTILITY, NET REPRODUCTION, GROSS REPRODUCTION AND MEAN LENGTH OF A GENERATION. 1 ' Zones | Net Repro- {Gross Repr-i{Total 'Mean Length ' ' duction Rate 'oduction Fertility ¿of a Genera- ' ' ! (R) ' Rate ! tion. ! — ! ! (G) ' (F) 1 ( ! 1 ! ' T \ 1 : North ‘| 1.99 ! 2.79 ‘| 5.66 ' 30.1 ! 1 ' ; 1 1 Central 1.84 ! 3.19 ! 6.37 1 32.9 t ' 1 î 1 t : Eastern , 1.92 , 2.86 ! 5.69 1 28.3 ! 1 1 ' t | Western 1.84 1 2,60 | 6.27 1 27,7 1 1 1 | Southern , 1.55 ' 2.41 1 4.93 | 29.3 1 i ' 1 1 India — y 1.83 ‘ 2,82 5.64, 31,4 ' ! i ' ; 1 t ; 7 ! ; . ; ,‘ 1 L = 7. Ina couple of field surveys conducted by the author in rural parts of Uttar Pradesh (6) and around Delhi (7), total marital fertility was found at 7.1 and 6.2 respectively. The National Sample Survey (8) estimated the total fertility of an Indian couple at 6.1. 8. In Central India (9) the total fertility of a Hindu woman was found to be 4.5 against 4.6 of a Muslim and 4.9 of a Budhist woman. The Mysore Population study (10) which is based on a large sample recorded the total fertility among the Hindus (in Bangalore city) at 5.4; Muslims, 5.7 and Christian, 4.7. The rates for the towns are slightly different (Hindus, 5.23 Muslims 6.7 and Christian, 55). 9. In a study in Bengal (11) the completed fertility of an 'upper' and lower-middle class Hindu wife was found to be 5.7 and 6.2 respectively. The highest rates are, however, reported by the fertility survey of Kanpur in Uttar Pradesh(12) where the total fertility of a Hindu and Muslim woman was found to be 7 and 8 respectively. 10. The estimates of total fertility provided by the above regional studies are so varied that it is difficult to prepare 854 a correct picture of the Indian fertility. Apart from the probable variations arising out of regional, socie-economic and cultural differences, the other important reasons are that strictly these figures cannot be compared, because of a diversi- fied questionnaire, concepts and definitions of fertility adopted in these studies. The best that can be inferred is that the fertility of an Indian woman is between 5 and 7. 11. Our ideas about the Indian net reproduction and mean length of a generation are still some what vague and imperfect. Probably, it is for the first time that these measures have been worked out here. According to our calculation, the net reproduction rate and the mean length of a generation in India works out at 1.8 and 31.4 years respectively. The slightly higher value of the mean length of a generation seems to be the inevitable result of the prolonged reproductive span in conditions of uncontrolled fertility. 12. These estimates portend a very rapid multiplication of population: if the Indian fertility and mortality remains unchanged for the coming 31 years, the Indian population could cross the 900 million mark in 1997. 13. There are significant regional differentiations in the rate of reproduction, fertility and the length of a generation. In Central Zone a higher length of a generation and fertility is accompanied by a lower rate of net reproduction. There can be atleast two plausible explanations, not necessarily mutually exclusive, that follow from a review of such a situation: the first explanation could be a higher mortality rate. This is partly attested by the slow growth of population (13) and the lower expectation of life at birth (14) in the Zone. The second explanation seems to be a higher frequency of births at all ages and especially in the advanced age-groups. The factors underlying these explanations can only be determined by an ultimate analysis, which is beyond the scope of the present study. 14. The experience of Northern, Eastern and Western Zones in respect of total fertility and net reproduction seems to be approximating although these estimates are slightly lower in the Western Zone. The Southern Zone, however, shows the lowest fertility and net reproduction. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 855 REFERENCES Census of India, Paper No.2 of 1963, 1961 Census,Age ables, 35 Manager of Publications, Delhi. Census of India, 1960. Census Life Tables 1951-60 Mimeographed, 1-24, The Registrar General, India New Delhi Barcklay, G.W., Techniques of Population Analysis 214, John Wiley & Sons, Inc. New York (1958) Dublin, L.I. and Lotka, A.J., On the True Rate of Natural crease, Jour: Am: St: Ass: 331-339, Sep (1925 Census of India, 1961 Census, Life Tables, 1951-60 1, Mimeographed, The Registrar General, India, New Delhi, Saxena, G.B., Differential Fertility in Rural Hindu om Eugenies Quarterly, 1203), 140, Jour: Am: ng: Soc. (1 965) Saxena, G.B., A Study of Fertility and Family Planning Pes 76, Mimeographed, Institute of Economic Growth, Delhi (1964). Das Gupta, A., Som R.K., Majumdar, M., Mitra, S.N., 1 Survey, No.7, 45, Deptts Eco: Affs, ovt. © a (19 Driver, E.D., Differential Fertility in Central India, 88, Princeton University, U.S.A. (1963) United Nations, The Mysore Population Study, ST-S0A/ Series A-34, 180, Department of Economies & Social Affairs, New York (1961) Chandra Sekheran, C, and George, M.V., Mechanism Under- lying the Differences in Fertility Pattern of Bengalee Women from Three Socio-Economic Group, Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly, 40(1), 40 (1962 Majumdar, D.N., Social Contours of an Industrial City = Social Survey of Kanpur, 1954-55, 174, Asia Publication House, Bombay (1960) Mitra, A. Census of India 1961, vol. 1 India Part II-A(1) General Population Tables p.181. Registrar General, India, New Delhi (1964). The growth rate of the population in the Central Zone during 1951-61 was only 18.9% compared to 21.5% in India. 14. 856 Census of India, 1961 Census, Life Table, 1951-60 op.cit.(Annex) ppeY-11. The expectation of life at birth in the Central Zone was the lowest: 39.8 years for males and 38.8 years for the females. 857 BIRTH INTERVALS ARTIFACT AND REALITY# Mindel C. Sheps, Jane A. Menken Jeanne Clare Ridley,* and Joan W. Lingner* Columbia University and *University of Pittsburgh la. Analyses of "child spacing patterns" are attracting attention for a number of reasons. Changes and differentials in natality may first appear in such data [1]. Analyses of the number of months between successive births, as well as of the "open-ended" interval since the most recent birth, might serve as sensitive indicators of the adoption of family planning [2]. Data on intervals offer richer, more detailed materials for analysis than do data on numbers of births. The increasing interest in the subject directs attention to analytic problems that may arise in studies of birth intervals [3]. #. This work was supported in part by the International Institute for the Study of Human Reproduction (Columbia University), and by Public Health Service Grants HD 02292 and HD 01585 from the National Institute of Child Health and Development. 1. Goldberg, D., "Fertility and Fertility Differentials: Some Observations on Recent Changes in the United States." in Public Health and Population Change (eds. Sheps, M.C. and ae J.C. 23 University of Pittsburgh Press, Pittsburgh, 119-142 (1965). 2. Ryder, N.B., "The Measurement of Fertility Patterns" in Public Health and Population Change, op. cit., 287-306; and Srinivasan, K., The "Open Birth Interval" as an Index of ha Fertility, The Journal of Family Welfare (India), XIII, 40- (19667. 3. Henry, L., Intervals between Confinements in the Absence of Birth Control, Eugenics Quarterly, 5, 200-211 1956); Potter, R., Birth Intervals: Structure and Change, opulation Studies, eps .C. an Perrin, E.B. The Distr bution of Birth fntervals Under a Class of Stochastic Fertility Models, ibid, XVII, 321-331 (1904); 858 1b. This paper will report an effort to explore some aspects of such analyses, particularly as related to variation in fecundability (monthly probability of conceiving) and in duration of exposure to risk. The study utilized a computer model, REPSIM, that goneratos, the birth intervals resulting from simplified assumptions [4], and makes it possible to isolate, in part, the effects of individual variables. Earlier results have indicated that birth intervals are highly sensitive to changes in the assumptions [5]. le. One problem in the analysis of intervals is what may be designated a "truncation" effect. Obviously, since women are able to reproduce for only a finite period of time, only a woman who happens to have relatively short intervals can have a relatively large number of births. Consequently, if birth intervals of a homogeneous group of women with constant parameters were studied according to birth order, regardless of completed parity, high order intervals would tend to be shorter and less variable than low order intervals [6]. Sheps, M.C., Pregnancy Vastage as a Factor in the Analysis of Fertilit Data, Demography, lL, 111-1160 (1964); Srinivasan, X., An Aplication of a ProbabilTty Model to the Study of Tnterlive Birth Intervals, Sankhya, Series B, Nov., 1-0 (1966), Venkatachari, K. Effect of Observation Period on the Estimation of Live Birth Intervals (mimeographed). L, For details of the model and computer program see Ridley, J.C. and Sheps, M.C., An Analytic Simulation Model of Human Reproduction with Demographic and Biological Components, Population Studies, XIX, 297-310 (1966), 5. Sheps, M.C., Ridley, J.C. and Lingner, J.W. "Effects of Selected Factors on Natality: Quantitative Estimation Through Simulation," in Simulation in Business and Public Health, American Statistical Assn. and Public Health Assn., New York, 1967 (in press); and Ridley, J.C., Sheps, M.C., Lingner, J.V. and Menken, J.A., The Effects of Changing Mortality on Natality, Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly, XLV, 77-95 (1967). 6. Henry, L., Fécondité et famille -- Modèles mathématiques Population, 16, 261-282 (1961); Sheps, M.C., "Applications of Probability Models to the Study of Patterns of Human Reproduction,' in Public Health and Population change E cit., 307-332; Doolittle, D.P., New, M.L., and Sheps, M.C., Biological Determin- ants of Birth Intervals in Mice, Fertility an eri y. in press). 859 Since this phenomenon is not determined by physiological characteristics or reproductive behavior, it may be considered an "artifact." ld. The truncation effect opposes a tendency for intervals to become longer with increasing rank order, since older (and higher parity) women tend to be less fecund than younger (or low parity) women. Actual data are further complicated by the varying age and marital duration of the observed women. As a result, a variety of effects and interactions impede the interpretation of a set of data. Thus, it is possible that "real™ lengthening of intervals by the use of contraceptives might be obscured by the truncation effect. In addition, analysis of completed intervals only does not recognize the changing proportions of women who have had a birth of a given order. le. It had been conjectured [7] that life table analyses of birth intervals, which utilize information on open ended intervals, might eliminate the truncation effect and reveal the effects of the underlying parameters. The present study examines this method as applied to cohorts simulated under known, controlled, assumptions. 2a. The Model: We have elsewhere described REPSIM: a stochastic Monte Carlo computer model of cohort natality ej. The reproductive history of each woman in a simulated birth cohort is developed sequentially, from postulated probabilities of marrying, becoming sterile, conceiving, dying and other relevant events such as divorce, widowhood, or becoming a family planner. The probabilities ("inputs") may vary with age, parity and other features of a woman's history. 2b. The birth intervals generated in a cohort were analyzed in several ways: 1) The first ten intervals were subjected to a life table analysis. Women who have an n-th birth enter the (n+1)th interval life table. A woman is considered a "withdrawal" if she dies, is widowed, or reaches the end of the study period without having an (n+l)th birth. Based on the life table calculations, estimates are made of the mean and variance of completed intervals. The weight given to any birth depends on the life table estimate of its frequency; if withdrawals occur 7. Sheps, M.C., An Analysis of Reproductive Patterns in an American Isolate, Population Studies, XIX; 65-80 (1965). 8. Ridley, J.C. and Sheps, M.C., op. cit. 860 during an interval, births occurring later (long intervals) tend to receive more weight than do births occurring earlier (short intervals). 2) Direct "sample" or "observed" values of the mean and variance of all completed (n+l)th intervals were calculated. 3) Weighted means were obtained of the intervals to the last, the second last and the third last births for women who had at least four live births and whose marriages were intact to the end of the reproductive period (completed marriages) [9]. 3a.i. Factorial Experiment: Several series of artificial experiments were performed to examine the effects and interaction of two types of factors: fecundability and several factors modifying the duration of exposure to risk (mortality, sterility, length of postpartum period, time of marriage). In eight cohorts, constituting a factorial experiment [10], fecundability, mortality, and sterility each entered at two levels. Fecundability of an individual woman remained at the same level throughout observation. In half the cohorts homogeneous cohorts) the value was 0.2; in the other heterogeneous) cohorts, 10 per cent of the women had a fecund- ability of 0.05 and 60 per cent a level of 0.30 (mean 0.2). "Mortality" and "sterility" were eliminated or occurred with a probability of 0.02 per year. These two factors operate differently in the model. "Mortality" removes a woman from the denominators; "sterility" does not. Furthermore, if a woman becomes sterile when she is pregnant, she completes the pregnancy in the usual way. In contrast, if she dies while pregnant and the pregnancy has lasted less than seven months, it ends in a fetal death. As a result, "mortality" reduces the number of births more than "sterility." 3a.ii. All other inputs were identical for the eight cohorts. All women were assumed to marry at the same age and data were generated for the subsequent 20 years. A long period of postpartum nonsusceptibility (20.9 + 11.7 months), 25 per cent pregnancy wastage and an infant mortality rate of 170/1000 were postulated. 9. See Gautier, E., and Henry, L., La Population de Crulai Paroisse Normande, Presses Universitaires de France, Paris 10. Cochran, W.G. and Cox, G.M., Experimental Designs, Wiley, New York (1957). 861 3b.i. Expected Values: When parameters determining birth intervals are constant throughout reproductive life, expected values for the intervals and asymptotic birth rates of fecund surviving women can be calculated [11]. If all members of a cohort are followed until they have a birth of a specified order, discrepancies between "observed" intervals and the expected values are attributable to sampling variation. The expected values are shown in Table 1. 3b.ii. The asymptotic annual birth rate per 1,000 women with constant and homogeneous parameters is eaual to 12,000/u, where u is the expected interval (in months) between successive births. Thus, the rate of 354 in the first column of Table 1 was obtained from 12,000/33.9. For a heterogeneous cohort, as in the second column, the rate is calculated as the weighted mean of the birth rates for the different groups in the cohort, as follows: Percent of Cohort u Birtr Rete 10% 23.9 223 60% e 379 Weighted mean 0.6 316 In this example, the introduction of heterogeneity increases the mean interval by almost 20 per cent, but it reduces the asymptotic birth rate by less than 11 per cent. 3c.i. Simulated cohort results: The annual birth rates (corrected, where appropriate, for sterility) approached the asymptotic rates in Table 1 at 2-3 years after marriage and then fluctuated around them with dampening oscillations [12]. 3c.ii. The cohorts without mortality are comparable to samples of women with completed marriages. Table 2 shows some results for a homogeneous and a heterogeneous cohort without sterility. The sample values for the successive intervals demonstrate the truncation effect. In the homogeneous case, (run 452), the reduction in the sample mean and variance of interval length is obvious by the seventh birth and increases at each higher birth order. Life table analysis ameliorates this 11. Perrin, E.B., and Sheps, M.C. Human Reproduction: A Stochastic Process, Biometrics 20, 28-15(1967J. 12. ,ibid., ,and Henry, L., Fondements théoriques des mesures de la fécondité naturelle, Revue de 11 Institut International de Statistique, XXI, 135-151 (1953) 862 truncation effect and is a better reflection of the constant parameters assumed. It is not, however, a fully satisfactory adjustment, since the expected values are underestimated for intervals 9 and 10. 3c.iii. In the heterogeneous case (run 454), the reduction begins earlier - after the third birth in the sample - and is more marked, since the women of very low fecundability, with long intervals, constitute a progressively decreasing portion of those who complete each successive interval. Intervals 8-10, however, give values that are definitely below even those expected for the more fecund group in the cohort. The life table estimates of the means, though above the sample means, also decrease progressively. For intervals 9 and 10 they are well below the value of 31.7 months, expected for the most fecund women. Life table estimates of the variance are considerably greater than the sample values and, in general, lie between the expected value for the whole cohort and that for the highly fecund women. 3c.iv. The results for the other cohorts from the factorial experiment deviated in only minor respects from those in Table 2. The sample values were similar and showed a truncation effect which was reduced but not eliminated by the life table analyses. The variations in the duration of exposure to risk introduced by sterility and mortality as here defined made little difference. NU. In addition to the factorial series, a cohort was simulated without mortality, sterility or variation in fecundability, but postulating a variable age at marriage. In this case, the sample means showed the truncation effect at an carlier birth order (sixth interval) and the effect was more marked than in run 452. The life table adjustment increased the means and variances by about the same amounts as it had for that run. 5. Shorter Postpartum Periods: Two cohorts were generated that corresponded to those in Table 2 in every respect except for shorter postpartum periods (12.9+ 8.0 months). Consequently the expected means and variances of The birth intervals were also reduced. The truncation effect was more pronounced in these results (probably because data were generated for only 15 years) and the life table estimates produced relatively smaller adjustments. 6a. Fecundability Varying Systematically with Time: Table 3 863 shows results for two cohorts simulated with homogeneous fecundability that decreased with parity (run 508) and with age (run 5073. If fecundability varies with parity, expected values can be calculated for each interval, as shown. Although the expected mean and variance increase consistently with birth order, the sample values did so only until the sixth birth. Even the values for the sixth interval are well below the expected values. In subsequent intervals, the truncation effect completely obscures the diminution in fecundability. The life table estimates adjust considerably for truncation, though falling short of the expected values from the seventh interval onward. 6b. For run 507, in which fecundability decreased with age, expected values could not be calculated. Again, the true increase in mean and variance, is evident in earlier intervals but is subsequently obscured by the truncation effect; life table analysis overcomes this effect only partially. Ta Quartiles: Since life table calculations routinely estimate the probability of not having the (n+1)th birth (analogous to survival) at specified intervals, it was possible to study "quartiles," i.e. the months at which 25, 50, and 75 per cent of the eligible women are estimated to have the (n+1l)th birth. The medians and the interquartile ranges also show some truncation effect. Given constant fecundability, these estimates are fairly stable for several intervals after the first, but then decrease in a pattern similar to that of the life table mean. The estimated median is usually slightly lower than the estimated mean, as expected in distributions skewed to the right. Th. Several problemsarise in the use of quartiles. It is difficult to determine expected values. As is well knowvm, quartiles are more variable estimators than the mean and variance. Also, when there are many withdrawals, it may be impossible to estimate the second or third quartiles. Sa,” Last Three Intervals: Table U presents the weighted means of the last three intervals of women with completed marriages in each of the cohorts previously described. Fecundability was assumed constant for a woman in all runs but the last two. The results are consistent with these assumptions. 8b. In the runs where fecundability was constant and homogeneous, the means of the last three intervals were approximately equal and agreed well with the expected means. In the heterogeneous cohorts, the means were intermediate 864 between the expected values for the whole cohort and those for the most fecund group. The last two examples in Table 4 show the expected tendency for means to increase with parity. 8c. These findings suggest that this method, applied to completed marriages, comes closest to reflecting the underlying parameters. It is, however, not applicable to many situations in which analyses of birth intervals are of interest, i.e., to surveys intended to reflect changes in the birth patterns of women currently in the reproductive ages. Ja. Conclusions: The above analyses indicate that survey data on completed birth intervals may be subject to a truncation effect that counteracts true lengthening of intervals. In- addition, such data ignore the very important group of women who do not go on to have the next live birth. The data for these women form part of the information on open-ended intervals. Life table analysis, which includes open-ended, uncompleted intervals, compensates, to a degree, for the truncation effect, but does not fully succeed in eliminating it. Particularly, this method has serious shortcomings in the presence of heterogeneous fecundability, which undoubtedly characlerizes real populations. Nevertheless, such analysis seems to be preferable to a simple calculation on completed intervals. 9b. A number of questions concerning life tables still remain to be explored. A preliminary study suggests that the magnitude of the "adjustment" introduced by the life table estimates depends on the proportion of women who complete an interval and on the mean length of the "open-ended" intervals, i.e., on the duration of observation for those women who enter the life table but do not have the next live birth. Oc. New methods or modifications are needed to ensure results which reflect reality rather than artifacts. Srinivasan [13] has proposed open-ended intervals as a valid index of natality; further reports on this index will be of interest. 9d. The work reported here did not start with an observed distribution of birth intervals. Rather it was based on a 13. Srinivasan, K. The "Open Birth Interval" as an Index of Fertility, loc. cit. 865 series of assumptions about the underlying biological parameters and on a simulation model which generates reproductive performance from such parameters. This permits us to study, in a pscudo-experimental system, the effect of selected important variables which are controlled by the investigators. Such studies cannot replace analyses of cmpirical data, but they can illuminate the interpretation of such data. Acknowledrements: .We are indebted to Joseph Ott and Susan Pastroff for the programming of REPSTM. Elaine B. Shore and Ann McPadden assisted in calculating and in compiling tables, and Marlene Brodas typed the manuscript. Table 1. Expected values for nonsterile women in cohorts with. constant fecundability and long postpartum period. Type of Fecundability Distribution Homogeneous Heterogeneous (Equal for all women) (C.V.=60% All Women First Interval (in months) Mean 15.8 22.5 Variance 32 335 Subsequent Intervals Mean 33.9 40.6 Variance 214 592 Asymptotic Annual Birth Rate/1,000 354 317 Most Fecund Women Intervals after first Mean --- 31.7 Variance _ 187 866 Table 2. Intervals between successive live births for cohorts with fecundability constant for any woman. a/ Run 452 Fecundability equal (.20) for all women No. of live births = 7.2 + 1.1 Life Table Interval No. of Sample _ Estimate . Number Births Mean Variance Mean Variance 1 1,000 16.1 56 16.1 56 2 1,000 33.8 202 33.8 202 3 1,000 34.3 212 34.3 212 4 1,000 34.4 22 34.4 223 5 995 33.1 19 33.2 201 6 92 33.3 188 34.1 200 7 722 31.0 165 34.0 215 8 364 28.6 148 34.4 244 9 105 25.7 119 32.8 201 10 24 23.1 85 28.5 119 Run 454 Fecundability varies among women b/ No. of live births = 6.4 + 2.0 1 1,000 22.0 315 22.0 315 2 998 39.1 534 39.2 543 3 981 40.3 555 41.3 648 4 908 36.7 355 38.6 L445 5 793 34.3 268 37.3 419 6 664 32.3 193 34.6 250 7 533 30.5 160 32.5 183 8 338 29.5 169 33.2 218 9 148 23.5 99 23.5 167 10 Ly 23.6 66 29.3 121 a/ Cohorts were exposed to reproductive period of 20 yrs. with no mortality or sterility and postpartum period of 20.9 + 11.7 months. b/ Fecundability = .05 for 40% of women; .30 for 60%. 867 Table 3. Intervals between successive births for two cohorts in which fecundability decreases with time. a/ Run 508 Fecundability decreases with parity b/ No. of live births = 6.2 + 0.9 Life Table Expected Interval No. of Sample Estimate Values Numbers Births Mean Variance Mean Variance Mean Var. 1 1,000 16.5 61 16.5 61 15.8 32 2 1,000 35.9 239 35.9 239 34.8 228 3 1,000 35.7 21 35.7 217 36.1 251 L 998 38.5 27 8.6 280 37.9 265 5 986 39.7 317 0.1 331 10.6 355 6 814 41.4 322 Ll 5 410 45.0 196 7 354 36.6 26 46.7 54 53.9 903 8 53 35.9 21 46.11 319 80.6 3061 Run 507 Fecundability decreases with age No. of live births = 5.5 + 1.2 1 1,000 16.4 55 16.4 65 2 1,000 35.5 287 35.5 287 i E 37.5 316 E. 19 96 -0.6 384 1.5 35 5 801 42,1 398 47.5 674 6 479 38.4 321 15.2 553 L 170 38.1 29 61.2 140 35 31.8 13 37.7 20 a/ Intervals with fewer than 20 births are not presented. b/ Cohorts were exposed to reproductive period of 20 years with no mortality or sterility and postpartum period of 20.9 + 11.7 months. 868 Table 4. Mean lengths of last 3 intervals for women with completed marriages and 4 or more births. Mean Duration of Interval Input No. with (months) Distri- Parity 3rd last 2nd last last Run butions 4 + Factorial Experiment F S M a/ 152 100 999 31.0 33.7 33.8 500 110 832 33.7 33.2 33.3 501 101 695 35.0 33.3 35.1 502 111 559 33.7 32.9 33.5 25 200 907 37.1 37.0 37.8 503 210 748 37.0 36.7 36.9 504 201 610 37.9 38. 36.6 505 211 187 38.2 36.9 36.1 Variable age at marriage 506 100 41 31.2 33.8 34.5 Short Postpartum Periods 481 100 1000 21.0 23.4 26.5 483 200 839 28.6 27.6 28.2 Fecundability decreasing with: Parity (508) 300 998 38.6 39.9 43.6 Age 507) 4 00 963 37.9 10.0 46.9 a/ F = fecundability Distribution 1: Homogeneous, constant with age Distribution 2: Heterogeneous, constant with age Distribution 3: Homogeneous, declines with parity Distribution 4: Homogeneous, declines with age S = Sterility M = Mortality Distribution 0: event does not occur Distribution 1: event occurs at rate of 20% per year 869 The Multiple Decrement Life Table as an Approach to the Measurement of Use Effectiveness and Demographic Effectiveness of Contraception Robert G. Potter,! Research Professor , Department of Sociology and Anthropology, Brown University 1. With several member countries having national family programs, the study of contraceptive effectiveness has special importance for the ECAFE region. Effectiveness of contraception may be considered from two view- points: "use effectiveness" (what the contraceptive is doing for the couples using it in terms of periods of protection conferred) and "demographic effec- tiveness" (what the contraceptive is doing for the population in terms of pregnancies or births averted). 2. While the utility of the life table approach - sometimes called the "actuarial" approach - for measuring use effectiveness has been demon- strated, 3 its relevance for investigating demographic effectiveness remains to be argued. A first objective of this paper is to discuss this dual rele- vance of the actuarial approach. A second purpose is to describe certain recent extensions in the measurement of use effectiveness made possible by passing beyond the single-decrement to the multiple-decrement life table. IThe writer gratefully acknowledges support received from the Ford Foundation. - i 2Tietze, C., The Clinical Effectiveness of Contraceptive Methods, American Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology, 78, 650, 651 (1959). A third aspect of effectiveness distinguished by Tietze is "physiologic effectiveness," use effectiveness under ideal conditions, i.e. , when the method is used consistently and according to instructions. potter, R. G. Additional Measures of Use Effectiveness of Contra- ception, The Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly, 41, Part I, 400-418 (1963) and Application of Life Table Techniques to Measurement of Contraceptive Effectiveness, Demography, 3, 297-304 (1966). 870 Use Effectiveness 3. An adequate measure of use effectiveness of a contraceptive in a given population requires knowing what proportions of the acceptors are still successfully using the contraceptive specified intervals after adoption and for those no longer using it, the time and circumstance of termination. Intra-uterine contraceptive devices (IUD) have typically produced moderate or low pregnancy rates but often quite high discontinuation rates. For example in one large American study, women classified by type of device exhibit cumulative pregnancy rates during the two years following insertion that vary from 3 to 16 per cent (though usually within a range of 4 to 10 per cent). During the same 24-month period their rates of device loss for all reasons combined vary from 33 to 60 per cent, owing mainly to high rates of removal and expulsion.” In Taichung, Taiwan, whereas 8 per cent of a large clinic sample (using principally small loops) became accidentally pregnant within two years of insertion, half lost the device for one reason or other by the end of the second year, most often by removal. An island- wide survey of IUD effectiveness in Taiwan has produced similar results.’ Although clinic studies of oral contraception typically show near zero pregnancy rates when pills are taken regularly, they also reveal rates of discontinuation that vary widely. In a compilation of 19 studies assem- bled by Tietze, rates of discontinuation for relevant reasons ranged from 7 to 41 per cent after 12 months. 8 4Tietze, C. Cooperative Statistical Program for the Evaluation of Intra-uterine Devices, Sixth Progress Report, National Committee on Maternal Health, Inc., mimeographed, Part I, Table 4, (December, 1965). An abridged version of this report appears in Studies in Family Planning, 12, 10-14 (1966). STietze, C., op. cit., Table 9. 6Potter, R. G., L. P. Chow, A. K. Jain, and C. H. Lee, Social and Demographic Correlates of IUCD Effectiveness: The Taichung IUCD Medical Follow-up Study, American Statistical Association: Proceedings of the Social Statistics Section 1966, Washington (1966), p. 274. Tsee paragraph 9 of section SUMMARY AND COMMENTS in Joint Monthly Report - August 1966 published jointly by the Taiwan Provincial Depart- ment of Health, the Maternal and Child Health Association, and the Taiwan Population Studies Center. Spermission to quote this unpublished compilation is gratefully acknowledged. 871 4. Retention rates for the same method may vary widely among different strata of a population. For instance, in the Taichung IUCD Medical Follow-up Study, one finds 65 per cent of women aged 35 years or older still wearing the device two years after first insertion, but only 24 per cent of the women aged under 25 years.? The same study shows that while removals account for most of the devices lost in all age classes, fre- quencies of expulsion as well as removal are higher among younger than among older women. Future studies may reveal equally striking differen- tials among users of oral contraception. Thus, plainly, it is not enough to report just a pregnancy rate while the contraceptive is in use. It is essential to be able to estimate too the proportions of couples that are still succeeding with the method specified intervals after adoption and to know the relative importance of different causes of discontinuation. 5. Estimating cumulative proportions of couples retaining and termi- nating a contraceptive would be straightforward if one knew for each acceptor length of use and circumstance of termination. However, in a prospective study one may have this information for only a minority of couples and have to classify the remainder as continuing users at time of last contact. Even in the case of retrospective studies, there will be couples using the contraceptive at time of interview and others who have interrupted use for reasons considered irrelevant to the acceptabil- ity of the contraceptive. Yet one wants to exploit these truncated hist- tories as well as the more complete ones to derive an unbiased picture of retention as it changes with increasing time from adoption. 6. The life table approach affords a standard solution.19 The observa- tion period is segmented into monthly intervals , each measured from time of adoption of the contraceptive. Data are organized so that for each suc- cessive month from time of adoption, one knows the number of couples at risk and the numbers of relevant events befalling them and therefore is in a position to compute monthly rates and from these monthly rates can build up the desired cumulative rates. In this manner it is arranged that each truncated history contributes experience to as many monthly intervals as it overlaps with. IPotter, R. G., et al., op. cit., p. 276. 10For two excellent introductions to the actuarial approach, see Dorn, H. F., Methods of Analysis for Follow-up Studies, Human Biology, 22, 238-248 (1950) and Cornfield, J., The Estimation of the Probability of Developing a Disease in the Presence of Competing Risks, American | Journal of Public Health, 47, 601-607 (1957). / 872 7. So long as the concern is with a single type of outcome - be it acci- dental pregnancy or discontinuation - with all other terminal statuses treated residually, it remains a single-decrement problem. However if prac- tice of contraception is viewed as subject to termination by two or more competing causes, then it becomes a multiple-decrement problem. For example, let us suppose that in an analysis of IUD, one has coded causes of device loss into three mutually exclusive and exhaustive categories: pregnancy, expulsion, and removal. One might then want to estimate 12-month rates of pregnancy, expulsion, and removal and would want these three rates to sum to the rate of device loss for all three reasons combined. A simple pro- cedure for deriving such additive rates is described in the second half of this paper. Demographic effectiveness 8. For present purposes demographic effectiveness is defined as the num- ber of births averted per 100 first segments of use of a contraceptive. By "first segment' is meant the period of use from adoption of a contraceptive to its first interruption.ll Even thus simplified, demographic effective- ness is harder to measure than use effectiveness. Nevertheless, rough assessments of births averted are possible and for this purpose the esti- mated proportions of couples still using the contraceptive specified inter- vals after adoption constitute an essential part of the information needed. 9. A contraceptive averts births, indirectly and with time lag, by delaying the next conception when the woman is in her fecundable state. Nothing is accomplished if a sterile couple practice contraception or if a nonsterile couple practice contraception when the female partner is amenorrheic or al- ready pregnant. For an estimate of births averted per 100 first segments of use of a contraceptive, essentially two kinds of statistics are needed. First are estimates of the prolongations of stay in the fecundable state resulting from practice of the contraceptive. Second, to convert these prolongations into births averted, it is necessary to divide them by a con- stant representing the average marriage duration per birth that might have been required by the couples had they not adopted the particular contracep- tive. 10. Durations of successful use of a contraceptive, estimated in connection with use effectiveness, overstate the extent to which that contraceptive is prolonging stays in the fecundable state. A corrected estimate of the latter 1lTietze, C. , Recommended Procedures for the Statistical Analysis of /Clinical Data on Intra-uterine Contraceptive Devices, National Committee /on Maternal Health, Inc., mimeographed (July, 1965). | \ NN 873 would allow for: (1) the minority of acceptors who were already sterile or who became sterile during practice of the contraceptive; (2) the minority of contraceptive users whose union is disrupted by death; (3) the amount of overlap between amenorrhea and practice of the contraceptive; and (4) the accidental conceptions that occur before the contraceptive is discontinued. Fortunately, under some conditions these corrections may be ignored without risking serious distortion. If most of the acceptors have demonstrated their recent fertility by having a birth shortly before acceptance and if retention spans or observed portions thereof are short, then there will not be time to accrue much sterility among the contraceptors. Short retention also reduces the role of mortality. Except where the combination of poor diet and lengthy breastfeeding produce protracted periods of postpartum amenorrhea, overlap between use of the contraceptive and amenorrhea is not usually a serious matter. Finally, during practice of IUD or oral contraception, rates of accidental pregnancy are typically low. 11. Thus under certain conditions the estimates of retention required for measuring use effectiveness may serve as useful upper-bound estimates of the prolongations of stay in the fecundable state. In any case, these esti- mated spans of retention offer data to which the four corrections just enu- merated may be applied when estimating the extent to which next conceptions are being delayed. 12. Young women typically have higher birth rates than older women. Hence many investigators may consider it a truism that more is accomplished by having a certain number of younger women adopt a contraceptive than the same number of older women. For instance, 100 IUD's inserted into women aged 20-29 would be expected to accomplish more than 100 devices inserted into women 30 years or older.1? yet is is obvious from the considerations cited above that this simple view is not always warranted. If retention spans are sufficiently dissimilar, they may more than compensate for differences in potential fertility. While older women have lower potential fertility on the average, their being at a later stage of family-building gives them wre incentive to persevere with contraception. If their retention of a contraceptive is sufficiently longer than that of their younger neighbors, they may avert more births per segment of use. 13. Just such an outcome is illustrated by a series of Taichung studies. Because the probability of losing an IUD in the next month proves nearly 12) ge, B. M., and J. Isbister, "The Impact of Birth Control Programs on Fertility," in B. Berelson et al. (eds.), Family Planning and Population Programs, University of Chicago Press, Chicago (1966), pp. 744-747. 874 constant ‘regardless of duration from insertion,l3 an estimate of average retention span is derivable from knowledge of the proportion retaining their device for 24 months or more. The resulting estimates of average retention among age classes 24 years or less, 25-29, 30-34, and 35-39 years are 17, 26, 41, and 55 months respectively. A rough measure of the potential fer- tilities of the four age classes is furnished by their birth rates during the three (or five) years directly preceding the IUCD program. It makes little difference which standard (3 or 5 years) is employed. 14 The differ- ences among the estimated potential fertilities are so much smaller than the differentials in retention span, that one is led to estimate almost twice as many births averted per segment of IUD among the oldest age group as among the youngest. When the four types of correction mentioned above are incorporated into the analysis, one finds the largest impact being estimated for age class 30-34 years, intermediate impacts for age classes 25-29 years and 35 years or over , but the least number of births averted among women aged under 25 years. 14. In a national family planning program, estimates, even very rough estimates, of the births averted per 100 adoptions of a contraceptive in different strata of the population, together with estimates of the accept- ance rates of couples belonging to these strata, are indispensable guides for determining where effort is best applied. Further, when it is deter- mined to try to increase the impact of a contraceptive in a stratum whose retention rate is low, it is essential to know which causes are the most important contributors to the high discontinuation rate. For instance, the specific rates of termination calculated in the Taichung IUCD Medical Follow-up Study have made it plain that important gains in retention can be achieved only by reducing the high rates of removal allegedly for medi- cal reasons, with this generalization applying to virtually every stratum distinguished. To the computation of specific rates of termination atten- tion now turns. potter, R. G., L. P. Chow, A. K. Jain, and C. H. Lee, Expanded Report on Social and Demographic Correlates of IUCD Effectiveness: The Taichung IUCD Medical Follow-up Study, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, mimeographed (February, 1967). 14Freeäman, R., and J. Y. Takeshita, Recent Fertility of Taichung Couples in Relation to Acceptance Status and Prior Use of Family Limita- tion, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, mimeographed (September, 1966). 875 Additive rates 15. In the remaining paragraphs, a procedure is described for computing additive rates, based on the principles of the multiple-decrement life table, 1° The essential idea was developed in collaboration with C. Tietze and refinements relating to standard errors added later with the help of B. G. Greenberg, N. L. Johnson, and W. K. Poole. Illustration is in terms of first segments of IUD. Data are taken from the Taichung IUCD Medical Follow-up Study, a collaborative project of the Taiwan Population Studies Center and the University of Michigan Population Studies Center , under the supervision of L. P. Chow and R. Freedman.l® To be estimated are cumulative proportions of women losing the device to pregnancy, expulsion, and removal within 12 months of insertion. It is required that the three specific rates sum to the 12-month rate of device loss for the three reasons combined. 16. Each of 6645 coded first segments are assigned a length and a terminal status. The classification of terminal status reduces to four categories: pregnancy, expulsion, removal, or continuing user. Length is measured in terms of ordinal months. A segment ending in the first month - i.e., monthly interval (0,1) - is 31 days or less. More generally, a segment ending in the 15This description is based on a technical appendix appearing as part of a mimeographed report: Potter, R. G., et al., Expanded Report on Social and Demographic Correlates of IUCD Effectiveness, pp. 40-69, available on request from the University of Michigan Population Studies Center. l6potter, R. G., et al., Social and Demographic Correlates of IUCD Effectiveness, pp. 272-277. 876 (x+1)th month - i.e., monthly interval (x,x+l) - may be as short as x months or as long as x months plus 31 days and is assumed to average x months plus 15 days. 17. A convenient notation is: N number of women retaining the device at the x start of the monthly interval (x,x+1) - í.e., the (x+1)th ordinal month P, number of pregnancies during month (x,x+1) E, corresponding number of expulsions BR, corresponding number of removals I = P, + E, + R, total observed terminations during month (x,x+1) number of women lost to follow-up during month (x,x+1) x C number of continuing users last observed during x month (x,x+1) Wy, = Cx + Fy total women withdrawing from observation during month (x,x+1) 18. The subscript x always denotes an integral number of months from time of first insertion. Note that N, = N41 + +W 19. The basic data are assembled in Table 1. Playing identical roles in the analysis below, Cy and Fy are combined into Wye They are separated in Table 1 only because it is important to know the size of Fy when assessing the possible magnitude of bias from selective drop-out. The last column, headed Ta + Wes gives the numbers of first segments of specified lengths. 20. In Table 2, various monthly rates are computed. Let N° = N, - W,/2. Nos the number of women still retaining the device at the start of the (x+1)th month, is derived by summing Ty + Wo) values from the bottom. It is important to note that each monthly rate being computed is a conditional 877 probability - the probability of losing the device during the next month if retaining it up to the start of the month. In life table parlance, it is a q-type rate, not a central or m-type rate. The monthly rate of expulsion, Que» for example, is estimated by E,/N&, not by Ex/N, the reasoning being that W, women withdraw from observation during month (x,x+1) and therefore are individually observed on average only one-half month. Had these W, women remained under observation a full month, they might have contributed (W, /2)Q additional expulsions. Hence we want to estimate Q , by the formula 2 = Ex + (Mx/2)Qxe Xe N x the solution of which is A Ex . Qe = NS - W/Z The additivity of the three specific monthly rates follows from A A A = * * * Up + Ue E er P/N + E, + Ry /N% = T,/N#, = 4, . 21. In Table 3, cumulative rates of retention and loss for all reasons combined are estimated. The calculations involved are those of the single- decrement table. The conditional probability of retaining an IUD during the monthly interval (x,x+1) if retaining it up to time x is the complement ?, =1 - dy" Multiplying together the initial 12 monthly probabilities of A retention yields the probability Po(12) of retaining it through the first 878 year. The complement of this probability is the proportion %(12) of women expected to lose the device before the end of the first year. The difference between the proportion retaining it x months or longer and (x+1) months or longer yields the expected fraction D, of women losing it during the monthly interval (x,x#l). An advantage of calculating proportions of women retaining and losing the device in this manner is that segments having a terminal status of "continuing user" are being utilized as well as segments with known types of termination. 22. To derive the standard errors of 2, and Pox: an additional simpli- fring assumption is required, namely, that risks of pregnancy, expulsion, and removal vary as a function of duration from first insertion, but for a given duration are the same for all women still retaining the device. A The formula for the standard error of P is also approximate from the 0x standpoint of neglecting a series of terms that grow . progressively smaller as sample size increases. 23. Table 4 covers monthly and cumulative rates of expulsion together with corresponding standard errors. Two additional tables would be required for equivalent information about rates of pregnancy and removal. The propor- tion Dre (of original acceptors) who expel during the monthly interval (x,x+1) is a product of the proportion Poy of women who retain the device up to the start of this month times the conditional probability Que of expelling it during month (x,x+1). The proportion Verre of women ex- pelling the device within 12 months is simply the sum of the initial 12 monthly Dre proportions. The same estimation principles used to derive the A standard error Box , the standard error of Pox’ are utilized to derive Rie’ 879 the standard error of Qe? so that no new simplifying assumptions are re- quired. Unfortunately the expression for the standard error of Qe is rather complicated, though readily programmed for a computer. 24, The multiple decrement life table admits of additional types of rates not considered in this paper. For example in an analysis of IUD one might want to estimate the proportion of women who might have been expected to expel the device within 12 months if all competing risks of device loss had been eliminated.17 Alternatively, one might choose to eliminate one of the competing risks, but not both and compute an expected rate of ex- pulsion in the absence of removals but in the presence of accidental preg- nancy. These more hypothetical rates often have utility in an analysis, but entail additional simplifying assumptions and of course add to compu- tation. 25. The elaborateness of analysis in no way lessens the importance of minimizing failures of follow-up. While the actuarial approach enables one to combine terminated segments with the unterminated segments of continu- ing users, it affords no protection against the biases arising when appre- ciable drop-out leaves a selected group of histories under observation. 26. With respect to retrospective studies, one may expect the Wy component to be smaller than in prospective studies, though a possibility of serious bias remains if there is failure to interview an appreciable fraction of 17The division of labor between "gross" rates predicated on no com- peting risks and additive "net" rates that take account of competing risks is discussed in Potter et al., Expanded Report on Social and Demographic Correlates of IUCD Effectiveness, pp. 6-8. couples scheduled for inclusion in the sample. 880 If the coding of segment length and terminal status is such that only monthly intervals observed in their entirety are considered - i.e., restriction to months whose ter- minus precedes the interview date - then by definition the number of women at risk at the start and during a month are the same and consequently N, appears in the denominators of all monthly rates. Table 1. First Segments, by Length and Terminal Status. Events occurring during ordinal month (x+1) Ordinal All sorti Preg- Expul- Lost td Continu- Devices | With- segments nancies | sions Removals -ug ing users | lost drawals (x+1) Po E, RL, x Cy T, W, To + We 1 11 167 228 9 115 406 124 530 2 26 106 102 10 135 234 145 379 3 25 95 110 3 66 230 69 299 4 30 82 110 1 66 222 67 289 5 34 56 77 2 106 167 108 275 6 18 44 64 8 106 126 114 240 7 29 43 81 5 209 153 214 367 8 23 42 66 2 139 131 141 272 9 15 38 56 2 125 109 127 236 10 22 28 52 0 169 102 169 271 11 15 23 53 0 217 91 217 308 12 12 16 51 2 290 79 292 371 13 and over| 114 86 340 10 2258 540 2268 2808 Total 374 826 1390 54 4001 2590 4055 6645 881 Table 2. Monthly Rates, by Circumstance of Device Loss. Ad justed Women ex- no. of Monthly rates of device loss from: Ordinal posed at women month state of sxposet Pregnancy | Expulsion Removal All causes x+1 N, = Ne Ne .— o” P/N de E, da” RN, Ye TN 1 6645 6583.0 .001671 .025368 .034635 .061674 2 6115 6042.5 .004303 .017542 .016880 .038726 3 5736 5701.5 .004385 .016662 .019293 .040340 4 5437 5403.5 .005552 .015175 .020357 .041084 5 5148 5094.0 .006675 .010993 .015116 .032784 6 4873 4816.0 .003738 .009136 .013289 .026163 7 4633 4526.0 .006407 .009501 .017897 .033805 8 4266 4195.5 .005482 .010011 .015731 .031224 9 3994 3930.5 .003816 .009668 .014248 .027732 10 3758 3673.5 .005989 .007622 .014155 .027766 11 3487 3378.5 .004440 .006808 .015687 .026935 12 3179 3033.0 .003956 .005275 .016815 .026047 882 Table 3. Monthly and Cumulative Rates of Retention and Loss for All Reasons Combined and Corresponding Standard Errors Cumulative rate by end of month (x+1) Ordinal Monthly Standard Proportion Standard rate of a/ terminating b/ month retention error Retaining Terminating during error (x+1) $ A - a(x,x+1) a a O(x+1) = Q (x+1) p= p=1-74 Sa Xx" Sa * * Py a x A x..x D 1 - ? ? -® Po (x+1) Po¥ PyX.-X Py O(x+1) | Ox” “O(x+1) 1 .938326 .0030 .938326 .061674 .061674 .0030 2 .961274 .0025 .901989 .098011 .036337 .0037 3 .959660 .0026 .865602 .134398 .036386 .0042 4 .958916 .0027 .830039 .169961 .035563 .0047 5 .967216 .0025 .802828 .197172 .027212 .0050 6 .973837 .0023 .781823 .218177 .021004 .0052 7 .966195 .0027 .755394 .244606 .026429 .0054 8 .968776 .0027 .731808 .268192 .023586 .0056 9 .972268 .0026 .711513 .288487 .020294 .0058 10 .972234 .0027 .691757 .308243 .019756 .0060 11 .973065 .0028 .673125 .326875 .018633 0061 12 .973953 .0029 .655592 .344408 .017533 .0063 1/2 a/ . AA * ='Sq = Sx = (pq /N) By q xXx Y, x , M A 2's = s 2 P (2 4 /N pp) Boxe) 0 Cel) O(x+1) 420 10 1Pi 883 Table 4. Monthly and Cumulative Rates of Expulsion and Corresponding Standard Errors Proportion retaining | Proportion |Cumulative expelling |proportion Ordi- Monthly during expelling Standard nal rate of Standard |to end of to start of month A error a/ A Mo (x+1)e7 month | expulsion error — month month Dee = $ of A s A AA A b/ (+1) re ae Po(x+1) Pox Pox%e i=0 Be Q (x+1)e 1 .025368 .0019 .938326 1.000000 .025368 .025368 .0019 2 .017542 .0017 .901989 .938326 .016460 .041829 .0025 3 .016662 .0017 .865602 .901989 .015029 .056858 .0029 4 .015175 .0017 .830039 .865602 .013136 .069994 .0032 5 .010993 .0015 .802828 .830039 .009125 .079119 .0034 6 .009136 .0014 .781823 .802828 .007335 .086454 .0035 7 .009501 .0014 .755394 .781823 .007428 .093881 .0037 8 .010011 .0015 .731808 .755394 .007562 .101443 .0038 9 .009668 .0016 .711513 .731808 .007075 .108519 .0040 10 .007622 .0014 .691757 .711513 .005423 .113942 .0041 11 .006808 .0014 .673125 .691757 .004709 .118651 .0042 12 .005275 .0013 .655592 .673125 .003551 .122202 .0043 1/2 a/ A A * Sa = Sg = (Qu Pre’ x) xe xe -l x x-1 b/ 2 , > 22 22 AA = = A; Sa + 2) BESA + 257 AB, cov(qQ, P.) rue 0 19: 2 1. io 1! lei wh >; Q/R i=0,1 1 ere A = = P =0, 1, . +5 X= i 3 Oj“je ‘i i-1 A B, = 7TP if i = 1, 2, . . ., x j j=0 = 1.0 if i= O0 A A A A, * cov(Qy Py) "0 eP1/N; Factors Affecting Vital Rates And Their Estimation in a Limited Geographic Area of a Developing Country. by Jamila Naeem West Pakistan Research and Evaluation Center, Lahore. INTRODUCTION — 1. The use of the survey method to collect vital events information from low literacy populations of developing countries is subject to errors of recall lapse and recall gain.1 Continuous registration of events reduces the errors caused by recall. Yet it may not yield unfluctuating data, particularly when the research operations are confined to a limited geographic area. In a longitudual research-cum- action study in family planning being carried out in Lulliani, a town in Lahore District in West Pakistan, sharp fluctua- tions in vital rates have been found to emerge from extraneous factors. These will be discussed in this paper. THE SETTING 2. Lulliani is a town of about 13,000 people, located 26 miles south of the City of Lahore. Despite being the third largest municipality in the District, Lulliani is character- ized by a mixture of rural and urban traits. About one third of its household heads are engaged in agriculture. A majority of the rest are traders, artisans, and hand loom weavers who are rapidly adopting power looms. Only 15% of the population is literate. There is a health center which is one of ten demonstration health centers in West Pakistan. Because of the presence of the health center, the town's convenient location relative to Lahore, and the rural nature of the area, the est Fakistan Research and Evaluation Center selected Lulliani for study. DATA COLLECTION 3. The demographic data from Lulliani have been collected by two methods: periodic surveys and longitudinal registra- tion. Before starting the family planning action program in the town, two rounds of demographic surveys were completed in 885 1961 and 1962, to provide baseline data. Zach survey recorded the births and deaths that had taken place during the preced- ing year and also recorded information on age, sex, marital status, caste, occupation, and literacy status. 4. In July 1962 a system of registration was set up to record continuously births, deaths, and migration. In addition to continuous registration of vital events, a brief demographic survey (known at WEPREC as a Birth Check though in fact births, deaths, and migrations were counted.) was conducted - during each of the complete years of registration. Lfforts have been made to keep the two sources independent so that analysis along Chandra -Deming lines can be undertaken.2 Ait this time, however, the detailed matching results are not available. The surveys provide base population estimates for the calculation of vital rates, but the discussion is primarily restricted to the registration results. 5. For the registration of vital events a Registrar and an Assistant Registrar were appointed and instructed to make weekly rounds of the research area in order to record continu- ously the vital events as they occurred. To avoid confusion between resident and non-resident events, one form has been used for Lulliani residents and another form for non-residents. A resident has been defined as one who has lived in Lulliani for the preceding three months. Several items of information are recorded for both births and deaths. These include place and date of occurrence, date of registration of the event, anc name and address of the subject. THE DATA 6. The births and deaths registered for the period July 1962 to December 1966 indicate that on the average the ratio between resident and non-resident events is 6:1 in the case of births and 12:1 in the case of deaths. TASLE 1 BIRTHS AND DEATHS REGISTERED IN LULLIANI WEPREC Register Total Resident Non-Resident Births Deaths Births Deaths Births Deaths July-Dec. 1962 300 160 255 142 45 18 Jan.-vec. 1265 507 171 440 158 67 15 Jan.-Dec. 1964 606 =: 159 532 131 74 8 Jan.-Dec. 1565 450 99 411 95 39 4 Jan.-Dec. 1966 S77 108 480 99 97 9 886 7. Since registration started in the middle of 1952, the figures for tnat year are incomplete. Note that in Table 1 the 1962 figures are given for only July through vecember. During the remaining four years of registration the recorded number of vital events varies considerably from year to year. The factors that appear to have caused tae variation will now be discussed. These factors are a malaria epidemic, malaria control, nigrations caused by a war, and a family planning program. FACTORS AFFECTING VITAL EVENTS Malaria Epidemic S. After initiation of registration in July of 1952, the first suostantial decline in the number of births recorded was observed in the middle of 1963 (June, July and August). lhe First Birth Check Survey was conducted in October 1965, in order to determine whether there really was a decline in births. The figures yielded by the survey confirmed the decline, although there were minor differences between the two sets of figures. On closer examination this decline in the birth curve was found to be associated with an earlier peak in the death curve during the latter part of 1%62. The death peak had resulted from a severe malaria epidemic in the town. The number of deaths for 1962 and births for 1963 were there- fore affected by malaria. See Graph I. Malaria Control 9. In 1963, a malaria eradication program was introduced in Lulliani. The town was sprayed during the three years from 1953 through 1965. According to the information provided by the Lahore District ileadquarters of the L'‘alaria Zradication Board, the spraying has been effective in bringing about a very substantial reduction in malaria. 3lood smears taken fro the general population in sector C of Lahore District, which includes Lulliani, showed 52.7% positive Cases of malaria before the start of spraying. This was reduced to 3.75 after the first spraying in 1963, to 0.7% after the second spraying in 1964, and to 0.04% after the third spraying in 1065. The effectiveness of this program seems to have been largely responsible for the decline in thie number of deaths recorded in Lulliani since 1965. See Table 1. Migrations Caused by War 10. The substantial decline in both the number of births and deaths in the year 1965 is almost certainly a result of the disturbances caused by the war with India during the month of 887 September. Lulliani is located close to the Indian border. It was affected very seriously by the emergency. Large scale outmigration, particularly of women and children, took place. hany of the migrants had not returned to Lulliani by the middle of 1966, with the result that the figures for 1966 are also affected by the war. Family Planning Program 11. VEPREC introduced an IUD (Intra-Uterine Device) inser- ~ tion program for family planning in Lulliani in November 1962. The progress of the program has been slow. The total IUD insertions of Lulliani residents numbered 206 by the end of 1966. By applying two different methods of analysis, annual retention rates of 55% and 75% have been estimated for the acceptors of IUD's in Lulliani.3 However, at this point age and parity specific fertility rates for the IUv acceptors and non-acceptors in Lulliani have not been calculated. Thus, no estimation of births prevented by the IUuU Frogram has yet been attempted. Nevertheless, we may assume the program has had some effect on the birth rate. FACTORS AFFECTING ESTIMATION OF VITAL RATES 12. In addition to the factors affecting vital events themselves there are factors affecting the estimation of vital rates. These are the Iegistrar's performance and a tendency to over-report household size. Registrar's Performance 13. Investigators have suggested that the apparent state of vital events is in the first instance the function of the registrar's energy and only secondarily a picture of the under- lying demographic forces.4 Therefore, the fluctuations in the figures from year to year raise a question about completeness of registration. In Lulliani, the same Registrar workcd from July 1962 until August 1965. Therefore, there was no problem caused by staff turnover. Uccasional difficulties in catching events that occurred to residents of Lulliani while they were away and confusion in distinguishing live from still births were reported by the Registrar and confirmed in rechecks by the WEPREC supervisor. The resulting net additions, however, were minor. 14. During the war in 1965, the Registrar left Lulliani without submitting the record for the month of august or giving his new address so that he could be contacted. The events for the months of August and September were, therefore, retrosnec- tively recorded in Cctober by the new xegistrar. ¿uring the 888 initial months of his appointment the new Registrar worked satisfactorily. But later he failed to do so because of ill health. Although the assistant Registrar was instructed to make up the work of the Registrar, deficiencies may still exist. Evidence on the coverage and quality of the record will become available when the registrar data and the survey data are matched. Over-reporting of liousehold Size 15. WEPREC's demographic research activities in Lulliani have been combined with the family planning program since the end of the year 1962. In the initial phases of the family planning program WEPREC provided pediatric and gynocologic clinics for residents of Lulliani, in order to emphasize the family welfare aspect of its total program. The provision of such facilities at the health center seems to have affected our survey results. The number of household members has been often overstated. Helatives staying temporarily or even permanently away from Lulliani (e.g., married daughters) have been claimed as household members to assure them free health care from the center's medical staff. This is evident when the survey figures obtained prior to the clinical health program are compared with figures obtained later. In early 1962 when the clinical program had not yet started, the Second Demographic Survey of Lulliani counted 12,406 residents. Then, in late 1962 the clinical health program and WEPREC's family planning activities both started. Towards the end of 1263 the First Birth Check Survey was taken. At the same time a iiouse- hold Card listing the members of each household was given to each household. The card was to be presented at the Health Center whenever a member of that household made a visit there. The cards had been prepared in the office and were corrected in the field for changes in household composition. Copies of the corrected cards were given to the lealth Center and kept in the WEPREC office for reference. The total number of people registered on cards and counted in the survey jumped to 15,4580 from the previous year's count of 12,406 - showing a difference of over one thousand and an estimated annual increase of over 5%. Compared with the census renortcd rate of increase and the increase suggested by the level of births and deaths, this seems too high. .urthermore, there were no indications of an unusual influx of migrants during the period. Therefore, it is reasonable to conclude that an over-count of population resulted from the referral value of the Household Card. 16. The Second Birth Check, undertaken six months after the first check, added another 200 people to the count obtained 889 by the previous check. But with an intensive effort to eliminate over-reporting, the Third Birth Check indicated the total population in 1965 to be close to the record of 1964. Continuation of the effort to eliminate over-reporting plus the effect of migration caused by the war brought the population count to 12,865 in the Fourth Birth Check conducted in 1966. ESTIMATION OF VITAL RATES Base Population 17. Base populations for the estimation of vital rates of Lulliani are obtained by two methods. By the first method the count of population obtained for 1962 is adjusted on the basis of registered figures of births, deaths and migrations for each successive year. Ly the second method the survey count obtained for any part of each year is adjusted forward or backward to the mid-year point according to registration figures. Since the first method relies primarily on register data, and the second method on survey data, the resulting estimates will be called "Register Estimates" and Survey Estimates respectively. See Table 2. TABLE 2 ESTIMATES CF MID-YEAR POPULATION, LULLIANI Register Survey Year Estimate Estimate 1962 12406 12406 1963 12592 13398 1964 12991 15691 1965 13557 - 13658 1966 13671 12865 18. The Register Estimate and the Survey Estimate for 1962 are identical because they are both based on the Second Demographic Survey completed in June 1962. For the next three years the Survey estimates are higher than the Register Estimates. This was at least partly caused by the over- reporting of household size, which has been discussed before. In 1966 the situation is reversed; the Register Estimate is higher than the Survey Estimate. This was at least partly caused by the poor performance of the registrar, who was inconsistent in classifying war migrants as residents or non- residents. 890 irths and Deaths for 1952 2. For the ycar 12962 data on vital events were available for July through December. Therefore, an estimate of ts for the initial half of thc year is made on tne basis e avorage number of events in the first six months of the remainins four years, i.e., 1955-1966. In the case of births, 45% of the average annual total belongs to the months of January to June. In tue case of deaths, the percentage for tie same months is 48. .owever, in applying this to the yeai 1962, allowance is made for the effect of the malaria epidemic on the number ol deaths in the months of July through December. only half of the deaths for the malaria period oí 1532 are used as a base for estimating the 43 lor the first six months of the year. The justification for takins only half of the cesths is that the resulting numoer is close to the average number of deaths for tne months of July tiough Lecember for the following four years. The births and deaths for 1962 are therefore estimated as 464 and 20S respectively. Vital Rates: 1962-1966 20. The estimates of birth and death rates pertaining to each of the two estimates of basc ponulation have been made. Estimate (i) is based on the ‘esister Lstimate of base popula- tion and Estimate (ii) is based” on the survey istinate of base population. TALE 3 ESTIMATES OF CRULE BIRTH AND DZATH RATES, LULLIANI Year Estimate (i) üstimate (ii) 1962 Birth Rate 57.4 37,4 Death Rate 16.5 16.5 1963 = Birth Rate 55.0 32.8 Death Rate 12.5 11.8 1964 = Birth Rate 41.0 38.8 Deatn Rate 10.1 9.5 1365 Birth Rate 30.8 30.0 : Death Rate 7.1 7.0 1966 Birth Rate 5.1 37.9 Death Rate 7.2 7.7 891 21. As discussed earlier, the rates for 1962 and 1963 are malaria affected rates. Consistent with the findings of Gill, Khan and Zia-ud-Din, and Krotki, the birth rate for the year when the epidemic occurred is less affected than the rate for the following year.S In the years 1965 and 1966 the war migration influenced rates and their estimation. Cnly 1964 vas relatively unaffected by epidemics or migration. Without adjusting for the effect of family planning on the birth rate of Lulliani during 1964, the two estimates give a birth rate of about 40. 22. Compared with the overall estimates for West Pakistan based on the Population Growth Estimate, a birth rate of 40 appears to be a conservative estimate.6 But in looking at the vital rates for Lulliani, we must remember that Lulliani was not selected as being a typical or representative area. Considerations such as a location convenient to Lahore and the existence of a Health Center had guided its selection. It is therefore not necessary that it should show rates similar to those obtained from the nation-wide and scientifically selected PGE sample. It is important to state, however, that birth rates close to that of Lulliani have emerged from other studies.” 23. With regard to the death rate, the estimates of about 10 per thousand may seem too low to be valid for any part of a country like Pakistan. Evidence obtained from matching the registration figures with the survey reports on deaths will check the validity of these estimates. The effect of the eradication of malaria should also be kept in mind. In addition, the town of Lulliani has the advantage of a Health Center and of proximity to the health services of a large city. also, over the past few years, WEPREC has provided free advice and treatment for general health improvement and special services in the areas of gyneocology and pediatrics. Several other programs, including a trachoma study and a nutrition improvement program administered by the Pakistan Institute of Hygiene and Preventive Medicine, have also benefited the residents. lence, in view of these pecularities of the town, the true death rate is now probably close to 10 as compared with 16.5, the estimate for the first year of WEPREC operations. If this substantial reduction in the death rate has in fact taken place in Lulliani, then, in the absence of outmigration it will be largely reflected by an increased growth rate, since the family planning program there has so far had only a very mild effect on the birth rate. The spread of the Malaria Eradication Program and other health programs should have a similar serious impact on the death rate and on the growth rate in other areas of Pakistan. 892 CONCLUSIONS 24. In developing countries with programs of mortality and fertility reduction, registration of vital events and enumeration of the population in a brief period of time and within a limited geographical area are inadequate for the estimation of representative vital rates. Within a limited geographical area, various factors can cause large short= term fluctuations in tne rates recorded. To identify the influence of such factors, it is necessary to extend the period of data collection over several years. Such a period of data collection in Lulliani identificd the influence of several factors. They were a malaria epidemic, malaria control, migration caused by the September 1965 war, a family planning program, performance of the registrar, and unusual over-reporting. Because of the overlapping and substantial impacts of most of these factors, it is difficult to estimate the impact of any one of them. po “he author would like to acknowledge the contributions of ner colleagues at WEPREC waich made this paper possible. Nonetheless, the autlor assumes full responsibility for the contents of the paper. 75 60 45 30 15 Graph I Effect of Malaria on Births and Deaths in Lulliani DY WEPREC Register Births Deaths Ne \ 1962 E July T + Aug Sept T Oct Nov Dec T T T Jan Feb Mar T Apr T T > T T May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov £68 894 REFERENCES: 1. Som, Ranjan Kumar, On Recall Lapse in Demogranhic Studies, in International Population Conference, international Union for the Scientific Study of -opulation, Vienna (1959), pp.50-60. : Cobb, J.C. and Kantner, JeF., Some Problems of Demographic Measurement in Family Planning “cesearch in the Fanjab, Population index, 29:233- -244. (1965). Chandra Sekar and Deming, Zdwards. We, Cn a Method of Estimating Birth and Death Rates and the Extent of Necistration, American Statistical Association Journal, 14:101-115. (1949). Rider, R.V., mite, Peñ., Rasheed as. Ghazi, and Harper ,P.á., The Use of Intrauterine Contraceptive ¿evice in Rural West fakistan, l’opulation Index, 33:327-328. (13866). Ahmad Nazir and Krotki, Karol J., Simultaneous Estimation of Population Growth: The Fakistan Experiment, Pakistan Development Review, 3:37-65. (1565). Gill, Clifford. A., The Genesis of Epidemics and the Natural History of Disease, Tindall and Cox, London (1928), np.32-83. Khan, M.K.H. and Zia-ud-Din, M., Effect of Malaria on the Birth Rate in Panjab Province (Faxistan), World Population Conference, (Meeting No. 8, L/Cont. 13/387), Rome (1954). Krotki, Karol. J., Seasonality of Vital Events in East and West Pakistan, Limeograrhed, Faxistan institute of > Develop- ment Economics, ilarachi. (1963). Krotki, Karol J. and Ahmed Nazir, Vital Rates in East and West Pakistan - Tentative Results from the PGE kWxperinent, Fakistan Development Heview, 4:7354-759 (1954,. Khan, L'.K.H. and Zia-ud-Din, M., Crude Birth and Death Kates in the Province of West Pakistan, in International Population Conference, International Porulation Union for the Scientific Study of Population, Vienna (1959), pp.£14-416. 895 For background information on WEPREC (formerly MESOREP), see the following articles: Population Council, Pakistan: The Medical Social Research Froject at Lulliani, Studies in Family Planning, Number 4, (1964). Population Council, Pakistan: The Medical Social Research Project at Lulliani, studies in family Planning, Number 8, (1965). Rider, Rowland V. MESOREP Program in Lulliani, West Pakistan, in Population Dynamics, Edited by Minoru Muramatsu and Paul A. Harper, The Jonns Hopkins Press, Baltimore, Maryland (1965) pp.35-42. 896 Computerization of International Demographic Statistics in the Statistical Office of the United Nations by Nora P. Powell, Chief and Gunnar Berggren Demographic & Social Inter Regional Advisor on Statistics Branch, Computer Methods - Statistical Office I. INTRODUCTION A. International Computing Centre 1, On 15 November 1965 the United Nations International Computing Centre came into operation in the Statistical Office of the United Nations. The Centre is equipped with an IBM 7044 computer and an auxiliary IBM 1401. It is designed to provide electronic data processing and computing services to all units of the United Nations and, upon request and against payment of costs, to provide services to specialized agencies and other United Nations agencies, to Governments, and to private institutions. B. Background of electronic data processing in the Statistical Office 2. The possibility of adapting electronic data processing to the work of the Statistical Office actually got underway in 1961 with the adoption by the Generzl Assembly of Resolution 1710 (XVI) in which the Secretary-General was requested "..…... to develop proposals for the intensification of action in the fields of economic and social development.,....With particular reference, inter alia to....e" "(h) The need to review facilities for the collection, collation, analysis and dissemination of statistical and other information required for charting economic and social development and for providing a constant measurement of progress towards the objectives of the Decade". 3. This Resolution was the culmination of a series of preliminary steps taken in the Statistical Office of the United Nations which began with a suggestion in 1960, that centralized compilation and extensive analysis by electronic processes to isolate patterns and relationships within and among the main subjects of economic and social statistics might be undertaken, To implement this suggestion, the Statistical Commission at its llth session in April/May 1960, adopted resolution 6 (XI) in which it requested the Secretary- General "to experiment with the use of high-speed, large-memory, stored= programme computing machines in facilitating the rapid processing, verifying and printi of the data". This resolution had specific reference to trade by-commodity-by-country statistics but the groundwork was thereby laid for the computerization of other fields of statistics, 897 Le At the same session, the Commission noted that work on the use of electronic equipment for purposes of statistical compilation and tabulation to meet modern needs was a task requiring additional attention in the future, Accordingly, at its next. (12th session) in 1962, the Commission considered the progress made in the application of electronic data processing to the foreign trade work of the Statistical Office and in Resolution 11 (XII) requested the Secretary-General "to establish a centre, attached to the United Nations Statistical Office, for the collection and publication of international data on external trade, and to arrange for the processing of the data by electronic computer", >. Realization that advances in the technique of electronic computation would not only permit speedier and more efficient processing of inter- national data but would also give access to the full range of data to a degree not previously possible, led to the establishment in 1963 of the Trade Statistics Centre. The success of this venture in turn, led to the organization in 1965 of an International Computing Centre mentioned in paragraph 1 above, 6. The Statistical Office is now in a position to consider the extension of the Centrets facilities to statistics other than trade, specifically to explore the possibility of applying the same techniques of electronic data processing to permit more efficient compilation and tabulction of inter national demographic statistics. 7. In this connexion it might be pertinent to recall the views of the Economic and Social Council set forth in Resolution 820 B(XXXI) of 28 April 1961 regarding intensifying efforts "to ensure international cooperation in the evaluation, analysis and utilization of population census results and related data, particularly in less developed countries", The action of the Population Commission at its 12th session is also of interest in this connexion. In its programme of work for 1963/64, the Commission included the study of the feasibility of the use of electronic computers in the demo- graphic work of the United Nations and this study was endorsed bv the Economic and Social Council in Resolution 933 C (XXXV). Since the scope of demographic analysis is limited by the speed with which processing can procced, comput. eri zation should open up a new range of possible research. II, PRESENT COLLECTION AND DISSEMINATION PROGRAMME FOR DEMOGRAPHIC STATISTICS A. Collection 8 The collection programme of the Statistical Office in respect of demographic statistics is perhaps too well known to need detailed explanation but it may be well to review briefly its scope. Since 1947, the Demographic and Social Statistics Branch of the Statistical Office of the United Nations has been assembling national demographic statistics on 85 separate and dis- tinct, though interrelated, series. These have included absolute figures on ‘area, population, localities, households, livebirths, foetal deatns, deaths, marriages, divorces, annulments, legal separations, international immigrants, emigrants and other travellers, as well as secondary indices such as gross and net reproduction rates, expectation of life values, life-table mortality rates, numbers of survivors and relative numbers (rates and ratios) for most series, 898 9. These data have been assembled by means of questionnaires directed to countries and by research into official publications received in the United Nations library. Series have been extracted, edited and annotated; discrep— ancies and inconsistencies have been resolved by further research or correspon dence, and the accredited statistics, together with their sources, have been transcribed manually onto data cards. Revisions are entered into the cards as required, new cards are added to the file and none are removed. The cards are filed by subject matter and within each series, cards for each country are arranged in English alphabetic order within continents. These cards, therefore constitute the "data bank" of demographic statistics for producing manuscript for United Nations publications, including the Statistical Yearbook, the Demographic Yearbook, the quarterly Population and Vital Statistics Report, the Monthly Bulletin of Statistics and the ad hoc Compendium of Social Statis- tics; they also provide the pool of demographic statistics required to back stop research projects such as those carried out by the Population Division of the Bureau of Social Affairs. 10. The time coverage of the demographic statistics! files is, in general, 1936 to date. No systematic attempt has been made to assemble data for years prior to 1936 except in the case of population census results where the total population figures have been recorded from all known censuses beginning 1850. For cross-classification of data from national censuses of population, a comprehensive series of results has been assembled begin- ning with the 1940 censuses. This 20-year bank of results from the 482 population censuses taken around 1940, 1950 and 1960 is perhaps unique in the world. Its volume can be judged to some extent by the fact that six of the 17 issues of the Demographic Yearbook (see para.l3) have been utilized to present these results: one issue for the incomplete results of the 1940 census data; two for the 186 censuses taken between 1945 and 1954 and three for the results emanating from the 196 censuses taken between 1955 and 1964. 11. The geographic or spatial coverage of the "data bank" is world wide, that is, some data are at hand for each of the 230 separate countries and territories whicn together comprise the sovereign and non-sovereign countries of the world in 1967. Except for "area" and "size" in terms of total popu- lation, which are available universally, the subject coverage of each type of demographic statistics varies from country to country. The variation in availanilis of 39 distributions from the 1960 censuses may be seen in Table B of the 1964 Demographic Yezrbook. 12. All in all it is estimated that the present file contains about 2 100 000 figures on area, population and vital statistics alone, and that he increase in these subjects over the next five years will average about 150 C00 figures per year. When the 1970 population census results begin to come in, the number of series, as well as the annual accretions to each series, will naturally increase. Inclusion of international migration statistics will further swell the bank as will additions of series of all types from countries not yet represented. The manual servicing of this file is becoming an increasingly difficult problem. 899 Be Dissemination Methods 13. Over the past 16 years, sixteen volumes of the Demographic Yearbook have been published in an effort to disseminate these international demo graphic statistics. Even at the beginning when the volume of material was much less, it was not possible to publish all new data every year, so a system of rotation was adopted whereby a nucleus of tables is up-dated and published annually, while the remainder of the volume (about 90 per cent of approximately 750 pages) is devoted to setting forth more detail for a differ- ent main subject each year. This rotation or cyclical policy has produced the following "Special Topics" in the 16 issues of the Demographic Yearbooks: General demography; Natality statistics; Mortality statistics; Marriage and divorce statistics; Population trends; and Population census statistics. 14. It is obvious that a rotation principle works very well for subjects such as population census results which ordinarily become available only every decade or, at best, quinquennially. But for population estimates and vital statistics, detailed distributions are available annually, and deferring their publication in accord with a 5-year cycle works a2 hardship on the con= sumer. It would be much better to make all these data available on an amual basis so that persons engaged in-demographic research could have access to the whole range of statistics. However, this is patently impossible under the present manual system, and the only possibility of solution appears to lie in mechanization and new methods of reproduction and dissemination, III, DEMOGRAPHIC COMPUTERIZATION PROJECT 15. With the establishment of the International Computing Centre (see para.l) it became possible to think about applying the electronic data processing to these problems. Accordingly, a project was drawn up with the following objectives: 1. to establish in the Centre a computer-based system for storage, adjustment, retrieval and analysis of demographic statistics = by means of a data bank of international demographic statistics, recorded on magnetic tapes or magnetic disks, 2. to develop a generalized computer programme for prompt tabulation of national demographic data according to both national amd inter national standards, 3. to devise ways to disseminate stored statistics currently. 4. to establish a bibliography of official sources of demographic statistics on magnetic tape, 16. The project described above can be justified on many levels, a few of which are mentioned below in relation to the four objectives, Since the project has only been in existence for about one year and since resources are very limited, work has proceeded slowly and has been concentrated on 900 (1) the data bank and (2) the generalized computer programme for tabulating censuses of population. Progress in these areas is also described below, A. Data Bank (Adjustment - storage - retrieval) 17. Among the "Ad hoc projects of high priority" in the Programme of work and priorities approved by the Statistical Commission at its 13th session in 1965, No.25 is "Experimentation in methods of establishing a centre for population data", The establishment of an international data bank at the micro or "raw data" level, i.e., on the basis of reports relating to individ= uals, is subject to many legal and technical difficulties. It was therefore decided to proceed on the macro level of tabulated statistics, that is, those aggregated taxonomically at the country level which are currently assembled by means of questionnaires and research (see para.9). (a) Advantages of computerization 18, Having these series on magnetic tape, rather than on manually maine tained data cards, would provide the possibility of evaluating the quality of the population and vital statistics as compared to chosen norms, in other words, of establishing logical controls and of adjusting the series by computer. The reliability of age distributions for example, could be tested, evaluated and adjusted on the basis of pre-defined relationships; the probable marital status composition of population could be calculated for use in checking and adjusting other series; school attendance figures could be studied in relation to labor force distributions, level of educational attainment and so forth to identify inconsistencies. In short, a computerized data bank would provide automatic error detection and adjustment. 19. On the analytical side, adjustment, storage and retrieval of the data considered basic for research would provide a wealth of basic facts not now readily available, and open up the full-range of demographic analysis including model simulation of the macro type. On a more practical level, it would make feasible the calculation, revision and up-to-date maintenance of a system of projection of population according to a variety of hypotheses as well as on a more frequent basis than is now possible by manual methods. This latter advantage is of immediate importance in connexion with planning for economic and social development and it has been identified as an item of work in the Secretary-Cenerai's proposals for a programme in population fields which might be expedited and its scope enlarged by the use of computers. (b) Progress 20. In accordance with the rotation schedule for the feature topic in the Demographic Yearbook, (see para.13) the subject to be examined in detail in the 1966 issue is "Trends in Mortality Statistics", It was therefore decided to attempt to use the computer to calculate the mortality rates specific for age and sex and, with this in view, pricrity for coding and punching was given to (1) population by age and sex and (2) deaths by age and sex, Work was initiated on devising codes for these subjects and punching of the population data began January 1967. It has been completed as has the coding 901 of the deaths by age and sex, live births by age of mother and sex and economically active population by age and sex, 21. As of 1 May 1967, the programme for the checking and conversion of the data for population by age and sex has been made and is being tested. Preparation of the programme for deaths by age and sex is in process, B. Generalized Computer Programme 22. This part of the computerization project had its origin in the stress placed by the Statistical Commission at its 13th session on "the need for prompt tabulation and publication of results of the 1970 censuses" and the "importance of internationally comparable data for planning and evaluating international programmes. ee". (a) Advantages 23. The objective of the project would be to provide Governments, especial- ly in developing countries where trained programmers are few, with a general- ized or standard computer programme for processing the 1970 population census results. Such a programme might be part of a central library of computer programmes which could be supplied to Governments with limited resources for programming or those who plan to have their censuses processed at installa tions outside their own borders. Such programmes could cover analysis as well as tabulation. (b) Progress 24. The key concepts of a general tabulation programme will be: "one record per destination", tables for recoding, and logic functions. "One record per destination" means, that if amounts in an input record have to be added to amounts in N different tables, N different records will be created, each carrying the identification of the table and the number of the place within the table. If the calculated destination is in the central memory, the amounts will be added there. Otherwise the amounts will be dumped on an output file (to be processed later) or part of the central memory will be dumped and space allocated there for the calculated destination. If a direct access storage device is available, the central memory will be used for the most frequent cases and the direct storage device for the next most frequent, leaving a minimum to be dumped. Control-cards will tell the cases in the central memory from the cases in the direct access storage device. 25. The tables for recoding will tell, for each characteristic of an input record and for each of its corresponding output records, whether the input code shall remain unchanged or how it shall be changed. 26. The logic functions will contain the conditions for creation of new records, 27. The tables for recoding and the logic functions will be in controle ' 902 cards. There will thus be a complete flexibility in both input and output coding. National and international tables can be produced simultaneously, 28. The above procedures have to be repeated, with new sets of control. cards, on each (geographical) level until all tables have been created. The tables for recoding will make possible such coding that cannot be made until the processing has proceeded up to a certain level. 29. Consistency-tests must precede the tabulation. Only records with valid codes and valid combinations of codes will be accepted by the tabulating programme. Control-cards, containing all permissible codes, and logic func= tions, expressing the validity of relations between codes, will play a main role in a general testing programme. There are, however, cases where a complete testing before the first tabulation camnot conveniently be done. There must therefore be, besides the pretabulation tests, provisions for inter- and post-tabulation tests of the original input records, Errors in these later tests might affect tabulations already made. The tabulation programme will let records, originally accepted but later invalidated, up= date all summary records negatively at the same time as the corrections are up~dating them positively. 30. An individual record might be valid per se but erroneous in its tabulated environment. This raises three Questions, that the Statistical Office has not yet fully penetrated: shall tables be aggregated to higher (geograpnical) levels before they have been tested? How shall tests of tables be constructed? and shall such tests be part of the general program mes in question here? Ce Dissemination of Demographic Statistics 31. The third part of the computerization project envisages a revolution in dissemination of demographic statistics. (a) Advantages 32, Computerization could provide speedier and more accurate methods of retrieval, reproduction and dissemination of data. At the moment, demographic statistics assembled in the Statistical Office are disseminated in periodic, (annual, quarterly and monthly) publications utilizing letter-press from manuscript for the Demographic Yearbook apd Monthly Bulletin of Statistics and photo offset from fair copy for the quarterly Population and Vital Statistics Report. This is a time consuming and potentially inaccurate method of retrieval and reproduction. Up-dating of stored information, retrieval, reduction, adjustment, calculation, and print-out by computer and reproduction by photo-offset, would constitute a major advance, 903 (b) Progress 33. This aspect is being deferred pending completion of the adjustment storage, and retrieval phases of the project. It appears likely that this schedule will also coincide with availability of new devices which will make possible an improved manuscript for reproduction and dissemination. D. Bibliography 34. The fourth part of the computerization project is the related field of bibliography, in which computerization will provide the means for advancement. The need for a "bibliography of primary source of national official /demograph- ic/ statistics" was recognized as far back as 1947 when the Population Commission recommended that such a bibliography should be contained in the United Nations Demographic Yearbook. Accordingly the Demographic Yearbook contained such a bibliography until the 1955 issue at which time matters of internal policy and shrinking space eliminated it. Despite requests by the Population Commission and the Statistical Commission, it has not proven feasible to publish a demographic bibliography since that time. With the advent of the computer, it becomes possible to consider the preparation of such a bibliography in the work programme, Its exact scope and detail has not yet been worked out but it is conceivable that it will include relatively detailed descriptions of content, Entries for the Bibliography are collected annually but nothing has yet been done regarding their computerization. 904 SELECTION OF MODEL LIFE TABLES AND STABLE POPULATIONS by Me. L. Srivastava Demographic Research Centre Department of Statistics Patna University, Patna-5, INDI l. In recent years the stable population theory has been used extensively to estimate various demographic characteri- stics in populationsof the developed as well as the developing countries of the world. To overcome the lengthy and complicated computations involved two model tables have been published, which can be applied to obtain the demographic characteristics in a - population satisfying certain conditions. The estimation starts with the location of a model life table and a stable population each approaching very nearly to the respective characteristic of the population under study. A systematic procedure to locate such model tables will be developed in the present paper. 2. In a stable population we can write c = b.e-T(%42.5) (LL... (1) x ,X+5 where Cr #s the proportion of population in the age group x to X+5 years, b is the birth rate per head per annum, r is the rate of natural increase per head per annum and sLy is the size of stationary population in the ase group x to x+5 years where the annual number of births (1g) is unity. 3 See for example the following publications a. United Nations, Methods for Population Projections by Sex and Age, ST/SOA/Series A, Population Studies No.20, New York, (1956). be , The Future Growth of World Population, ST/SOA/Series A/28, New York, (1958). c. Coale, A.J. and ’Demeny, Po, Regional Model Life Tables a Stable Populations, Princeton University Press, Princeton, (1966). 905 for the next higher age group in the same stable population we can write CA = Dee TÍN2.518), sLog -———— (2) From equations (1) and (2) we get ACy gp = Dee TOM2.5)0 0-57 ¡Loy - sex ER (3) where ACy 35 = Cxd,%10 - Cx,X5 Dividing L.H.S. of equation (3) by Cx ,x+5 and simplifying we get 1+ Ax ES = e-9r, SES EE Cx,x+5 5Lx = 1% Ay 35 (Say) ------ (4) Again writing Ady ws for Aws,% 10 - Ay x55 ve can see that 5 5 A Ay 355 = er5r Ss. SB) (5) SL£r5 sx From equations (4) and (5) it is easily obtained that A —[ Max SO sx. LLLLL0 (6) 14 Ax,x+5 5Lx+5 SLEF5 Summing for all the values of x at the interval of 5 years and writing 5S$x = sLyv5 / 5Ly Wwe get from equations (4),(5) and (6) K+ L Ax 75 =e OTL 58 ---------- (7) LA Az ,x+5 = e-Sr {x 5545 - Lk 55s | - - - (8) À Ax,x+5 sSx+5 ES = y (22382 1) 09) l+Ax,x+5 sSx- Dividing (8) by (7) we get mmm ee = sie - -----(0) K+LAx 55 L5Sx where K is the total number of values of Ax xr5 included in the summation and that is equal to the numb r of closed age groups minus one. 3. Equations (9) and (10) give a function of life table survival ratios which can be obtained from the stable age distributions. In practice either of the equations can be used to calculate the value of the R.H.S. which is defined uniquely for every life table. One such set giving the values of the R.H.S. of equation (9) for the U.N. Model Life Tables is presented? in appendix table. Here it was noted that the magnitude of the difference between two successive values of the R.H.S. of equation (9) was more than that of the R.H.S. of equation (0) for the same set of levels of mortality and thereby former provided a wider range for interpolation. The procedure involved in the selection of model tables is explained in table 1. Total of column (6) of table 1 except the last entry in that column was obtained as -0.693658. Reference to the appendix table shows that the above total corresponds to the level of mortality 20.05. Columns (3) to (7) of table 2 present a cross section of the stable female populations where the actual and the estimated levels of mortality = the mortality in the form of a life table associated with that particular stable population - are cempared. This shows that the difference between the actual and the estimated levels of mortality when equation (9) is employed is negligible whereas the same is not true when equation (10) is used to estimate the level of mortality. This indicates that while selecting a model life table, equation (9) should be pref- erred. This is mainly because the R.h.S. of equation (2) makes use of all the values of 5S, (except the last one) whereas the numerater of the R.H.S. of equation (10) is based on the first and the last values of 5S, for the closed age groups. 2 The other set using the Model Life Tables prepared by Coale and Demeny and the U.N. Model Life Tables for the R.H.S. of equation (10) is not included here because of lack of space. 907 4. The value of the natural rate of growth is obtained from equation (7) as below E Ax,xr5 + K r= = —- log ewj-------------- Lr 59x The values of L5S, for each of the U.N. Model Life Tables is also given in the appendix table. Once the level of che model life table is determined as in paragraph 3, the value of L5S, can be obtained (if necessary by simple linear interpolation). The estimated and the actual values of the natural rate of growth in stable female populations considered are compared in columns (8) and (29) of table 2. The difference between the two rates given in column (11) of table 2 in each of these comparisens is negligble. The reason advanced in paragraph 3 against the use of equation (10) to estimate the level of mortality in a stable population applies equally well against the use of equation (8) to estimate the natural rate of growth in a population. This is indicated by . column (12) of table 2. The error in-volved in using equation (8) instéd of (7) or (10) instead of (9) is higher than that involved in using the equations other way round. 5. Equations (1) and (2) bring out one intersting recurrence relationship which may be of some use to those constructing the stable age distribution in a population with the help of model stable populations given by Coale and Demeny.lsing the notations of paragraph? 2 the relationship is obtained as Ca, Eo - E + Sk. Cog o . e-ST is constant quantityes. The values of 59x for all the age groups and of Cy 375 for the initial age group i.e. 0-4 years can be obtained Tom the Regional Model Life Tables and Stable Populations prepared by Coale and Demeny. The special advantage tn using the above equation over the tables available is that it reyuives a maximum of 21 interpolations whereas the application of tables requires a maximum of 54 interpolations. The setting of the tables is such that some of these interpolations are to be periormed after consulting two separate pages and thus are time consuming. The labour needed to apply the above recurrance relationship is reduced further if calculating machines with provision for continued multiplication are available. 6. the analysis presented above will be ot considerable inportance particularly because this helps determine all the characteristics of a stable 908 population knowing only the correct age distribution in the population. It will not be necessary LOW 50 5 ubstitute the observed rate of growth for the intrinsic rate ofXin the population. Though the present analysis is confined to the age distributions given in intervals of five years of ages, the method can be applied to any age distribution having at least 3 closed age groups of equal interval. The accuracy will, however, depend upon the length of the age group interval - the shorter the age group the finer the estimate of the model tables. To meet the possible and popular range of age groupings, the need of constructing several tables like our appendix table involving different types of age distributions is emphasised. 909 TABLE 1 Calculations involved in the selecticn of model life tables and stable populations. Age groups Proportions? in years of females ir the age group ACy 35 Cx ,x+5 A Cx, 55 Cx yX+O Aâx,x+5 =Ax o Ax ,XES Tomo . 1+Ax,x+5 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) O-1i 0.13873 -0.02347 -0.16918 +0,09257 +0.111420 5-9 0.11526 -0.00883 -0.07661 +0.00135 +0.001462 10-14 0.10643 -0.00801 -0.07526 -0.01435 -0.015318 15-19 0.09842 -0.00882 -0.08961 -0.01273 -0.013983 20-24 0.083960 -0.00917 -0.10234 -0.00918 -0.010227 25-22 0.08043 -0.00897 =0.11152 =0.00841 -0.009466 30-34 0.07146 -0.00857 =0.11923 -0.00855 -0.009715 35-39 0.06289 -0.00808 -0.12848 -0.01109 -0.012725 40-44 0.05181 -0.00765 -0.13957 =0.01840 -0.021385 45-19 0.04716 -0.00745 -0.15797 -0.02687 -0.031911 50-54 0.03271 -0.00734 -0.18484 -0.04129 -0.050653 55-529 0.03237 -0.00732 -0.22613 -0.06089 -0.078683 60-61 0.02505 -0.00719 =0.28702 -0.08420 -0.118096 65-69 0.01786 -0.00663 -0.37122 -0.11231 -0.178616 70-74 0.01123 -0.00543 -0.48353 -0.13199 =0.255562 75-79 0.00580 -0.00357 -0.61552 = > 80-84 0,00223 - - = - 85+D 0.00056 - - - — a Source: Srivastava, M. L., The Quantitative Affect of Some sccio = Demographic factors on Measures of Fertility, Appendix table S University (1955 female population with ee = 30.40 yrs and GK Phe D. Thesis, The Australian National The age distribution refers to a stable = 2.5. This age group is not considered for calculating various columns of the table because it is an open end age group. TABLE 2 Comparison of the actual and the estimated values of the level of mortality and the natural rate of growth in selected stable female populationsä. Natural rate of Absolute Absolute growth per thousand difference Level of mortality difference females per annum between Serial Gross between Estimated columns Number reprodu- Actual “stimated Estimated columns Actual Estimated from ction rate from from from eq. (3) eq. (10) (3)-(4)(3)-(5) eq.(7) eq. (8)(8)-(9)(8)10) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) 1 2.5 20.00 20.05 20.35 0.05 0.35 6.20 6.19 6.51 0.01 0.31 2 4.0 20.00 20.07 20.41 0.07 0.41 23.07 23.05 23.43 0.02 0.36 3 1.5 40.00 40.01 40.06 0.01 0.06 -3.03 -3.03 -2.96 0.00 0.07 4 3.0 10.00 39.92 39.37 0.08 0.13 21.48 21.49 20.98 0.01 0.50 5 1.5 60.00 59.99 59.92 0.01 0.08 3.32 3.32 3.25 0.00 0.07 6 3.0 60.00 60.03 60.16 0.03 0.16 27.89 27.89 28.04 0.00 0.15 7 2.0 80.00 79.91 79.39 0.09 0.61 18.53 18.54 17.90 0.01 0.63 8 3.5 80.00 80.06 80,33 0.06 0.33 38,64 38.64 38.97 0.00 0.33 9 2.0 100.00 100.08 100.39 0.08 0.39 22.40 22.40 22.71 0.00 0.31 10 3.5 100.00 100.23 100.57 0.23 0.57 43.57 42,32 42.78 0.25 0.21 a Source: The same as that for column (2) of table 1. OT6 911 Appendix Table 75-79 75-79 Values of L 5S, and X ( ------ -1) for U.li. Model 0-4 0-4 59x Life Tables for males and females at specified levels4 of mortality. 555 Values of Serial Level of Number mortality 75-79 75579 z S Sr S,\- } os 59x RAC X* 5/5 x) | Male Female Male Female 1 0 11.9100 12.1400 -0.806821 -0.734497 2 5 12.1748 12.3905 -0.802400 -0.736314 3 10 12.4236 12.6258 -0.789829 -0.727990 4 15 12.6561 12,8455 0.771366 -0.714362 5 20 12.8596 13.0593 -0.752911 -0.694928 6 25 13.0527 13.2609 -0.730441 -0.672210 7 30 13.2403 13.4355 -0.706867 -0.652262 8 35 13.4100 13.5948 -0.684236 -0.633089 9 40 13.5660 13.7553 -0.661061 =0.609508 10 45 13.7125 13.9061 -0.639670 =0.587684 11 50 13.8475 14.0427 -0.618591 -0.566591 12 55 13.9687 14.2692 -0.599930 -0.546742 13 60 14 .0807 14 .2893 -0.582383 =0.527538 14 65 14.1908 14.3637 -0.564895 -0.509930 15 70 14.2913 14.5018 -0.549032 -0.493249 16 75 14.3823 14.5995 -0.535091 -0.476522 17 80 14 .1676 14 .6892 -0.522049 -0.461912 18 85 14.5452 14.7742 -0.510290 -0.447931 19 20 14.6187 14,8490 -0.499175 -0.435627 20 95 14 .6872 14.9402 -0.188637 -0.423492 21 100 14 .7539 14.9732 -0.477617 =0.414256 22 105 14.8168 15,0199 -0.165727 -0.404718 23 110 14.8733 15.0640 «0.452003 -0.392356 24 115 14.9228 15.1040 -0.4137991 -0.378915 & These levels refer to the U. N. Model Life Tables. 912 ESTIMATION OF FECUNDABILITY FROM A SET OF MARITAL A.S.F.R. AND A STUDY OF THE IMPACT OF A FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAMME ON THE NATALITY OF THE POPULATION - A SIMULATION MODEL* By S. Mukerji and K. Venkatacharya, Demographic Training and Research Centre, Chembur, Bombay-T71, INDIA. 1. Introduction: In this paper we briefly present some of the results of simul ation models which we are pursuing at present. Part I deals with the estimation of fecundability under some simplifying assumptions. Part II deals with the variation in birth rate and some demographic characteristics for a group of women whem they follow a stipulated family planning programme. Both for parts I and II marriage pattern has been assumed to be the same. Part I. 2a. For a woman biologically capable of reproduction fecundability is defined as the probability of conception in a menstrual cycle. Fecund- ability depends on the age of the couple, order of birth, characteristics of the evum and sperm, frequency of coitus and perhaps a number of other less known factors. Thus a correct estimate of fecundability from an observed set of data on the number of women exposed and conceptions scored over a period of time is not easy, if not impossible. Some simplifying assumptions have to,be made. Two approached are available. The first adopted by Hyrenius is based on the earlier work of Henry. Here it is assumed that fecundability remains constant over time and the women are homogeneous. Mean waiting time before a conception is scored is then a function of fecundability. The second approach is based on the number of layrenius, H. and Adolfsson, I., A Fertility Simulation Model, Demographic Institute, University of Goteborg, Sweden, Reports 2, pp.14-17 (1964). *The authors are obliged to the Tata Institute of Fundamental Research, Colaba, Bombay, for giving computer time free of cost for this study. 913 menstrual cycles and conceptions, scored over the entire reproductive period. Using this method James” obtained maximum likelihood estimates of fecundability for a particular data. These estimates are in general smaller than those based on the waiting time. 2b. In the present study our effort is not to estimate fecund- ability in its biological sense. Vhat we want is a set of monthly pro- babilities of conception such that when used with a set other relevant input parameters, the simulated set should yield age specific marital fertility rates as close to an assumed set as possible. The method adopted is outlined below. Based on Indian Census 1961 one thousand currently married women by single age were taken from the paper by Belavalgided. For these women, between 15 and 44, for each age the number getting married at 15, 16, 17, etc. were determined using the age specific conditional probabilities of marriage as reported by Sheps. Single,year marital fertility rates were taken from Mysore population study. It was assumed that in any age one-fourth of the births were due to conceptions in that year and the remaining three-fourth from conceptions in the preceeding year. These live birth conception rates were assumed to hold for the thousand currently married women. Next step was to determine the conception rate with respect to only susceptible women in each age. That is, the live birth conception rate for each age was to be multiplied by the ratio of all women in that age to the women in susceptible state in the beginning of that age. The number of women in susceptible state at the beginning of each age was determined by subtracting from the total women those that were either in gestation or post partum amenorrohea. It was assumed that following a live birth conception 10, 70 and 20 percent of the women will be in non-susceptible state for 1, 2 and 3 years respective- ly from the point of conception. Table l (annexed) presents the observed conception rates, inflation factors and the adjusted conception rates for each age. For the purpose of illustration the method of derivation of the inflation factors for some of the earlier ages is also presented in Table 1. James, W.B., Estimates of Fecundabili Population Studies, Part I, Vol.17, pp. 57-65 (1963). Belavalgidad, M.I., Changes in Age at Marriage and Their Effect on Birth Rate, Seminar paper submitted to the Demographic Training and Research Centre (Mimeographed), (1963). 4 2 3 4Sheps, M.C. and Ridley, J.C., Marriage Pattern and Natality: Preliminary Investigation with a simulation Model, paper submitted for the Annual meeting of the Population Association of America Mimeographed), Chicago, p.7 (Appendix), (1965). The Mysore Population Study, U.N. Publications, ST/S0A/Series A/34, p.84, Table 8.9. 914 The adjusted conception rates were assumed to be total probability of conception in that age.Now if P, be the probability of conception in the first cycle for a suceptible woman aged t months ,then the probability that she conceives within twelve months will be A = À +% h. Teo + Uri) fen In particular if we assume he . * Am = 6° EA A, : /- (%)* OR CAN = = AL Substituting the adjusted conception rates for A, , a for t= 180,192, 204,... etc . were determined. Table 1 shows the t corfesponding p. It is to be noted that in deriving the adjusted conception rates incidence of fetal wastage and secondary sterility were ignored. Further the proportions having 1,2land 3 years non-suceptible period following a conception were arbitrary. In spite these and some other rough assumptions the calculated fecundabilities were useful in simulating the fertility histories on micro level, in the sense, that they yield age specific rates ,mean number of children born, average spacing between births etc. not very different from what was observed in the Mysore Study. Flow chart no. 1 ( annexed ) gives the model for the of fertility history of individual woman. Further At may be mentioned that the method of derivation of fecundabilities automatically made adjustment for secondary sterility. If age specific secondary sterility is consired the no. of women in suceptible state at the beginning of each age would go down and the fecundability will increase in magni tude. 2c. Table 2 shows the observed marital ASFR. It can be seen that except for the first age group the deviations are not much. For the first age group the deviationsis large because of fewer births in age 15 in the output. The reason for this is obvious . About 75 percent of the births in age 15 are due to conceptions in age 14, but our model allows entry of women into reproduction only from age 15. If we allow all the 43 percent women getting married at age 15 - a fertile union from age 171 months, approximately 9 more births per replicate will be scored in age 15. If these births are taken into account the ASFR for the age group 15-19 will go up from 219 to 244 and the percentage deviation will oe approximately 12. Of course , introduction of this change in the plan will have an effect on the births in other ages also. In this study our aim is to indicate that a fit to the given ASFR can be achieved. Subseouently the inflation factors and fecundabilities will be determined incorporating fetal wastage, variable marriage pattern , variable period of non-suceptibility etc. in the model. Af ter making these modifications it is expected that the present approach will improve the fit. 915 Part II 3a. In this section we present the results of a family planning programme on a group of 1000 women. The women when not using any family planning method were assumed to have the age specific fecundabilities as given in Table 1. Proportions of fetal wastage, periods of gestation and post-partum amenorrohea were assumed to be the same as those used in Part I. Generation of fertility history was again on Micro-level. Three possible methods of family planning could be used by any women, they were IUCD, conventional contraceptives and sterilization with 95, 50 and 100 percent effectiveness respectively. IUCD was given greater weight in the sense that women were assumed to try IUCD before going for conventional contra- ceptives or sterilisation. Successful users of IUCD were assumed to use the method continuously after they have achieved the desired number of children. In this study successful users have been defined rather strictly. One will be successful user if she did not experience drop out or pegnancy during the period of use, throughout her fertility performance. Desired number of children was assumed to be ome more than the mean order of birth at which IUCD was accepted. For acceptance of IUCD two levels of mean order of acceptance, namely, 2 and 3 children and an average age at acceptance of 29 years were used. For a successful user after earlier orders of birth test for acceptance after latter order of births were not made but the possibility of drop out was allowed. Between any two births, so long as the woman has not reached her desired family size, contraception of two years was allowed. A woman could use exclusively contraceptives, or exclusively IUCD or partly contraceptives and partlyIUCD during this period of two years. After a woman attained the desired family size, and if she happened to be a suffessful user of IUCD, she was allowed to use the device continuously. Any failure of IUCD made her eligible for sterilization provided she had atleast three children and was over age 25 years. Table 3 shows that with the increase in desired number of children larger proportion of women could limit their family size by two years of partial protection from conception between births. It is interesting to note that for smaller desired number of children such as 3 the percentage of women requiring no continuous protection against risk of pregnancy will be negligible. 3b. Table 4 presents the result when all 1000 women were subjected to the contigency of accepting the stipulated family planning programme. Col.2 shows the percentage accepting the plan. Subsequent columns show the impact on mean number of children born etc. These entries were obtained as weighted average of corresponding entries when all women were in natural fertility and when all were following the family planning programme. This type of mixture assumes that in the population two distinct groups of women are present, those that never take to voluntary limitation of family and those that always adopt some method for limitation. In actual practice some women 916 go for family planning after a certain order of birth and there are some losses to family planners due to contraceptive failures and other causes. In a subseq ent study acceptance of family planning itself will be made a contingent event. In this model the acceptance rateof IUCD is rather high and the drop out rate is low. Drop outs due to medical reasons have been considered because the model assumes that any IUCD failure will lead a woman to either conventional contraceptives or sterilisation and perhaps this assumption will be realistic if drop out due to medical reasons alone are allowed. Comparing the fertility histories of 1000 women when all were in natural fertility and when all were using the family planning programme it can be seen that 47 and 64 percent reduction in the mean number of children born to women of completed fertility were achieved corresponding to desired number of children 3 and 4 respectively. From Table 5 it can be seen that the percentage reduction in the earlier two age groups do not vary but desired number of children has a distinct impact on the higher ages. Of course it is doubtful if Indian women will ever be so strongly motivated as assumed in the plan. FLOW CHART NO. 1 L «€ repo < Y No Y + + es Cas less Jos Same IE Y Ei Ÿ M : Marriage ( mean value 16.8 months ) C ; Conception G.L.B : Geatation following a live birth (mean value 9.6 months ) G.S.B : Gestation following a still birth (mean value 8.2 months ) G.A : Gestation following an abortion (mean value 3.7 months P.L.B : Post-partum amenorrohea following live birth (mean value 15 months ) P.S.B : Post-partum amenorrohea following still birth (mean value 2.9 months ) P.A : Post-partum amenorrohea following abortion (mean value 2.7 months) M.S : Menopause ( Exactly at 45 years for all women ) E.R.C : End(of the reproductive cycle of a woman ) FLOW CHART 0, 2 C.U A A + [No LT6 es E.C 918 SYMBOLS USED IN FLOW CHART NO. 2 A : Acceptance of IUCD by age and parity of women( mean acceptance by age of 29 years and mean birth order of accept nce 2and 3 ) D : Drop out of IlUCD dee to medical rcasons ( 16 percent of the first insertions by 24 months of use U : Use of IUCD for 2 years ( 95 % effective ) P.U : Pregnancy with IUCD in situ E.D : Exceeding desired number of children N.F : Natural fertility C.U.D: Continuous use of IUCD C.U : Use of conventional contraceptives for 2 years (50% effective) P : Pregnancy E «SZ: Eligibility for sterilization 1 E.W.C: End of a womans reproductive cycle 919 Table 1 Age Single year Adjusted Inflation 1 Marital ASFR Marital ASFR factors At Pe 15 0.2706 0.2730 1,0000 0.27300 0.026219 = 16 0,2758 0,2762 1,2226 0.33743 0,033721 17 0,2770 0,2794 1,5725 0.43872 0,046988 18 0.2802 0,2826 1,9282 0,54568 0,063632 19 0,2834 0,2858 2,1265 0.60817 0,075107 20 0.2866 0.2890 2,2163 0.64050. 0.081720 21 0.2898 0,2922 2.2215 0.64868 0.083480 22 0.2930 0.2944 2.2766 0,66932 0,088093 23 0,2948 0,2961 2,3360 0.69146 0,093344 24 0.2966 0.2979 2,3893 0.71201 0,098535 25 0,2984 0,2997 2,4372 0.73117 0,103694 26 0.3002 0.3015 2,4784 0.74599 0,107919 27 0.3020 0.2822 2.5170 0.70980 0,907962 28 0.2756 0,2558 2,4175 0.61885 0,077231 29 0,2492 0,2294 231853 0.50044 0,056195 30 0,2228 0.2030 1,9589 9.39765 0.041363 31 0.1964 0.1766 1,7828 0.31555 0,031101 32 0,1700 0.1680 1.6350 0.27468 0,026407 33 0.1674 0.1554 1,5483 0.25548 0,024283 34 0.1648 0,1628 1,5157 0.24705 0.023369 35 0.1622 0.1602 1, 5046 0.24073 0.022681 36 0.1596 0.1576 1,4954 0.23626 0.022210 37 0,1570 031426 1,4860 0.21249 9.019710 38 0.1378 0.1234 1,4487 0.17819 0.016221 39 0,1186 0.1042 1,3815 0314367 0.012842 40 0.0994 0.0850 1,3106 0.11140 0,009794 41 0,0692 0,9658 1,2471 0.08231 0,007132 42 0,0610 0,0466 1,1896 0.05591 0,004790 43 0,0418 0,0274 1.1372 0.03070 0.002595 44 0.0226 0.0082 1.0879 0.00870 0.000728 * Each of the fecundability levels is assumed to held for the twelve months following the begi- ning of that age. 920 Table I (continued) For illustration only part of tables and calculation are presented here. Age Per 1000 married The number getting married at various ages for women the No. in the entries in Col.2. each age. Age at marriage > 15 16 17 18 19 20 15 25.80400 25.80400 16 31.55299 21.04245 10.51064 17 33.70698 18.60564 9.29351 5.80783 18 34.96398 18.04903 9.01348 5.63408 2.26339 19 35.52597 17.50471 8.74359 5.46417 2.19707 1.61643 20 35.48798 16.86030 8.42171 5.26302 2.11619 1.55692 1.26984 Calculations for evaluating the inflation factors These calculations were programmed on the Computer which used different precision from what is maintained below so both the inflation factor and inflated rates do not tally with the entries in Columns 4 and 5. Age Total Entrants into No Conceving Inflation Inflated married suceptible factor rate women. state at age. 16 31.55299 15 21.04235 be 5.744332 31.55299 0.2761999 16 10.51064+15. 29780 -25.80844 25.80844 X = 1.22258 1.22258 = 0.33767 17 33.70698 15 18.60364 5.07933 1.57288 0.43946 16 9.293514-13.52631 ;=22.81982 7.70557 17 5.807854 0.50793 -15.11425 =21.43001 18 34.96396 15 18.04903 4.92737 1.93010 0.54344 16 9.01549413.12166= 22.13714 7.47304, 17 5.634084 0.492734-14.66210 9.13589 . = 20.78891 18 2.26539-+ 3.449154 0.74750 +11.65302= 18.11508 21.04233 X 0.2729993 = 5.74455 21.04235 - 5.74455 =15.29780 22.81982 X 0.33767 = 7.70557 10 per cent of the births in 15 entering in suceptible state after 1 year 70 per cent of the births in 15 entering in suceptible state after 2years 20.78891 X 0.43946 = 9.13589 Hoo oe 921 TABLE .2 Number of Cases: 1000 Age No. of Women Marital Observed Percentage difference Group births. years. ASFR marital 100 (Col.4 - Co1.3) — ASFR Col.4 15-19 779 3560 219 277 -21 20-24 1479 4740 312 293 6 25-29 1580 5000 316 302 30-34 964 5000 193 170 13 35-39 700 5000 140 157 -12 40-44 307 5000 61 61 — Mean number of children born to women of completed fertility from the model. ... 5.816 Mean number of children born to women of completed fertility from observed data ... 5.9 + Percentage difference ... 2 TABLE DESIRED Totals No. OF I II III IV (I+II+III) 100(IV —III) CHILDREN 3 25 634 341 98 1000 28.7 4 90 693 217 47 1000 21.6 I. Number of women who could restrict their family without taking recourse to sterilization or continuous use of IUCD. However, between births, they used Contraception (Including IUCD for 2 years). II. Number of women getting sterilized. III. Number of women using IUCD continuously. IV. Number of failures among those in III. * Mysore Population Study, Op cit., p.117, Table 10.5. 922 TABLE . Desired Percentage Lean SF No. of of women number = , children adopting of chi- I II 11 i ' Vi PF.P. Pro= ldren. graine. o 5.82 219 312 316 193 140 61 3 100 3.07 213 265 163 33 11 4 50 4.44 216 288 239 113 75 33 20 5.27 218 303 285 161 114 49 4 100 2.73 220 281 227 64 24 7 50 4.77 219 296 271 123 82 34 20 5.40 219 306 298 167 117 50 TABLE. Desired Percentage reduction in ASFR when all women are in F.P No. of programme and when tiey are in natur l fertility alone. children. I II III IV Vv VI - 15 50 83 92 93 - 10 23 67 83 90 * These are the six Conventional five year age groups i.e., 15-19 etc., 923 Estimation of Birth and Death Rates of a Quasi-Stable Population by the Use of Some Actuarial Functions by P.B.Gupta, M.Sc. y Acle A. Demography Unit, Indian Statistical Institute,Calcutta, India 1. Introduction We shall in this paper consider the population of India,a special feature of which has been a fairly stable age distribution over the past decades,characteristic of a near-constant high fertility. Mortality rates however have declined,but substan- tially, only during the decade, 1951-60,s0 that the growth, had also been nearly steady at about 13% per annum till the 1951 census,shooting up to over 2% per annum during the next decade, As the fertlity experience of a population practically free from migration like India is the principal determinant of its age structure,in which mortality plays a more or less unimportant part,the Indian population at least up to 1951 and at the 1951 census can be considered to be a quasi-stable population,i.e., "extremely similar to a stable population,in which the current conditions of mortality and fertility have already prevailed during long periods of the past"(1). The determinants of the eqivalent stable population as at 1951 would thus be the current mortality experience of the population as embodied in the All- “India Life Tables, 1941-50,and the exponential growth rate of 14% per annum experienced during 1941=50, which is the product of the current levels of morta- lity and fertility and the constant age composition. A practical method of estimating the birth and death rates of the population as in 1951 would be to find (1) The Future Growth of World Population, U.N.Publication ST/SOA,Series À 28,44, 924 the same for the stable population and assume them to be applicable to the actual population. This has been attempt- ed in this paper by a method,which,as will be seen,involves the use of some actuarial functions. 2. Theory of the method (a) If § = the exponential rate or force of growth per annum of thé stable population and the number of births per annum at present = 1_(the radix of the life table),then the births in time dt the present moment = 1 ,dt. =S(x+t) .. births between x+t and x+t+dt Years ago = e” el .dt, and lives/ at ages between x+t and x+t+dt,at the present ~8(x+t (x Pelo x+tPo* 45, where x+tPo = probability of surviving from birth to age x+t, moment = e =§(x+t) = e elyigedte lives between ages x and x+1 = [em (xt) 4 1 + x ta x+t*dt v «dt, where x+t > ó v = 1/(1+i) and 1+i = e, , _ ox D ,y+dt,whereD =v 1, — = Dx, where Bx D, = E D, + Di) approximately. Lives at ages x and over = y Dott = Nos and lives at all ages,i.e., the total population at the present moment = No: And if the instantaneous birth rate = b, Nj .bedt = 1 .dt, so that b = 1/8, = D,/N,, since D _ v.1, = lo: lt will be seen that the functions Los Ty and Te in a stationary population based on a Life Table(i.e., a Life Table population) correspond respectively to the functions D,» N, and Ño in the stable population based on the same Life Table and a force of growth of ¿per annum, Putting J = 0, the stable population becomes a stationary one, and DB, N, and N, are reduced respectively to the Life Table functions Les T, and Toe 925 (b) Students of actuarjal science will recognise the functions D, D., N (=2 Dart) and N_ to be commutation functions, which are exactly the same as those in the theory of Life Contingencies(provided {is positive and is taken as the force of interest), used for facjlitating the calculation of life annuity values. In fact, N/D = à, the present value of a continuous annuity of 1 pef annum, payable to a life from birth till death, at a force of interest of § per annum,the life assumed to experience in future the mortality of the given life table. To take an example, @, = 28.383,by the English Life Table,No.10(Males) and at an annual rate of interest i = 25% (or = 2.47%), It follows from the above that the male birth rate(male birth per head of male population) of a stable population of males(included in a stable population of persons growing at the same rate), based on the same Life Table and growing at the rate d = 2.47% per annum, would be the reciprocal of 28¢383,viz., «03523 or 35.23 per mille per annum. - (ce) We have thus a method of deriving the age structure of a stable population and its birth rate by the use of commutation functions, which may be constructed as per successive column headings x, 1,9 D, (= viel), D,= #(D, + D,+1)»except at the im infantile ages,where the integral [VEEL at is x+ evaluated more correctly as v to, and N, = 2 Drs the summation being done from the limiting age of the Life Table successively to the lower ages. (a) In the above,we have considered only one and any one of the sexes,with regard to age structure and the birth rate (ice., birth of a sex per head of the dtable population of that sex). Considering the stable popula=- tion of persons which grows at the same rate as each of the stable counterparts,male and female,and remembering that male and female births are connected by a fixed sex ratio,we have the female birth rate = 105) (8) and the male birth x? rate = 10 5m), where 119) and 11) are respectively 926 the radixes of the given mortality table for females and (f) = =(m ; ; males, and N, and N, are the commutation functions derived from the female and/mortality tables respectively, using the same rate c . (£) Now, if the number of female births = 1e per annum, the number of male births per annum must be = (1+5).109), where 1+s = sex ratio at birth,i.e.,the ratio of male to female births in the same interval of time, = 1: (7), say, Total births per annum = 15) + 1: (7), which must be related to the total population(at all ages) exposed for one year = RO, Fim), 1 (@ (m , The birth rate of the total population - 1, 13 03/0505), ge, (0 Nm] 109). (2+5) FLT) + B®), (146). 68971 6m) 3. Application of the method to All-India, 1951 and results ing the annual rate of growth of the Indian population during 1941-50 as 11%,so that ¿ = ,01242, which instead of .0125 would not materially affect the results and for which compound interest tables are available,we construct stable age distributions with the All-India Life Tables, 1941=50,Males and Females. We have 1(F)- 146,896 ana H(*) - 3,378,739 and 13" = 142,759 ana F,") - 3,368,067. Taking 1+s = 1,05, the birth rate of the stable population from the formula derived above 20429 per annum, and since «0124 per annum, the death rate +0305 per annum. Thus the birth rate and the death rate are 42,9 and 30.5 per mille per annum respectively and applicable to the Indian population as at 1951. (b) These results are close to the estimates by other variants of the stable population technique,viz.,43.1 and le a and Hoover)(2) Or 43.9 and 30,8(S.P.Jain)(3) _ 2) A.J.Coale and E,M,Hoover, Population Growth and Econo- mic Development in Low-Income Countries, Oxford University Press (1959). (3) Age Tables, Census of India, 1961,Paper No.2 of 1963 927 even though our results are based on the current mortality being represented being represented by the All-India Life Tables, 1941-50 and the current growth rate taken as 1.24% per annum,whereas the other estimates are different in both these respects, 4, Concluding remarks (a) This paper gives a convenient technique for deriving the age structure and the birth and death rates of a quasi-stable population from those of a stable population provided its growth ratte is known and its mortality experience is given by a Life Table. Our work has been facilitated by the ready availability of compound interest functions at 11%, At rates of interest(or rates of growth) for which such functions are not available,the work of constructing the comutation functions normally would be laborious. In such situations, since in a practical case, we are interested in populations in quinquennial age- groups,an abridged table may be constructed by calculating 2 D, directly at quinquennial ages beginning from zero, and then obtaining N, at those ages by an appropriate summation formula,involving the values of D_(4), or else from the quinquennial values of D,» N, may be obtained by approximate integration,say by using Hardy's "formula (38)". (b) The situation in some other countries in the ECAFE region is similar to that of India,as would appear from the report of the ECAFE secretariat, that "so far as the picture of fertility trends can be discerned in the Asian ECAFE countries other than Japan, China(Taiwan), the Federation of Malaya,it seems to be a picture of fertility having remained without much change over a considerable period of time,but at different levels in the different countries"(5). From the same (4) PeF.Hooker and L,HeLongley-Cook,Life and Other “in encies, Vol. 1,Cambridge University Press, 266-269, 1953). (5) Economic Commission of Asia and the Far East, Report of the Asian Population Conference and Selected Papers(held at New Delhi, India, 10-20 December, 1963), United Nations, 77, (New York, 1964). 928 report, this seems to be particularly true for Ceylon and Thailand, The similarity in this respect of Pakistan to India is perhaps obvious,as the two countries were one, until only twenty years ago, As for growth rates,it has been noted that "for several decades before 1950,the regional total had been increasing steadily at the rate of 10 per cent every 10 years but the latest estimates suggest a jump to nearly 20 per cent between 1950 and 1960." (6) This has been due to the fact that " in recent years, spectacular reductions in mortality have been =z achieved within this region,largely through the wide- spread application of modern medical knowledge and public health technology, At the seme time,birth rates have tended to remain fairly steady at high levels,and the result has been a considerable acceleration in the rate of population growth"(#). Thus the populations of the ECAFE countries as indicated above,could,in the absence of micration end inappropriate periods, be taken to be dues iebtabier boptiations like that of India, on which the method employed in this paper could be applied, provided of course that in respect of the period under consider- ation, their recent growth rates could be estimated and hrrios their current mortality experiences could be TESTS sented by appropriate Life Tables. (6) Same as (5),4. (7) Same as (5), Foreword. 929 ESTIMATION OF REPRODUCTION RATES FOR ASLAN COUNTRIES FROM CENSUS DATA J. Re Rele Senior Professionsl, Demograrhic Training and Research Centre, Chembur, Bomboy-71, India. 1. The computation of the gross and net reproduction rates by conventional methods is not feasible for most Asian countries lacking adequste registration data on births and deaths. However, the knowledge of these indices over the post fow decades is an important aid in the development programmes of these countries. Fortunately, the frequency and quality of the census data has vastly improved in the post Second World War period all over the world, mocking census a promising single source for extrscting varied demographic information. The author of this psper has developed a methodology for estimating the gross and net reproduction rates, and some other fertility measures, primarily from the census age distri- bution, which is being published elsewhere. }/ After a brief introduction of the methodology, the same will be used here for estimating the gross and net reproduction rates for Asion countries. The computation of the total fertility rate is a simple extension of the gross reproduction rate. Methodology: 2. Though the methodology was developed through nrimary considerations of stable population concepts, it was extended to cover populations which are neither stable nor quosi-stable. Thus its utility goes beyond mere estimation of a fertility index which is assumed stoble. It can be applied even in cases where fertility hos been changing, and in fact con be used to assess the extent of such changes in the fertility levels, This is a significant progress over the erstwhile stable population analysis. 3. With deterministic mothemstical model the suthor has shown that under fairly general conditions the conventionsl child-woman ratio besrs an almost linear 1/ J. R. Rele, Fe A Concenta, Institute of International TT of California, Berkeloy (To bo published). 930 relationship with either of gross and net renroduction rate st a given level of mortolity, Utilizing this fact least-squore strsight lines were fitted ot expeci- stions of life (e2) of 20, 30, 40, 50, 60 and 70 to 9 set of stoble porulstions to estimate the reproduction rote from the child-womon ratio. The coefficients of these stroight lines sre being published. Thus knowing roughly the og (to the nesrest multiple of ten) it is now o simple procedure to compute the repro- duction rste from the child-womsn ratio. 2/ The methodclogy hos been tested by applying it to the ponulstions of the developed nstions hoving sdequste regis=- tration data to allow computstion of the reprcducticn rates by the conventionsl method ss well for comrcrison. Application: Asion Countries: 4. The census sge distributions of Asisn ccuntries published in various volumes of the United Nstions' Demographic Yearbook were utilized for the esti- mation of the gross smd net reproduction rates. The child-womon rstio obtsined by dividing the mumber of children aged 5 to 9 by women in the sge group 20 to 54 wss selected to minimize the errors due to non-reporting of infonts and very young children in the census count, The estimates of the reprcduciion rates belonged to the period five to ten yesrs before the census; this being the period when the children in the sge group 5 to 9 were born, 5. For majority of the countries at least one life table for some rest period was available, The information therein was combined with the trend in the registered crude death rote to obtain the sopreximste volue of ef at the specified pericd before the census. For others, either s foirly relisble crude desth rote was available, or the degree of under-registrstion wss sporoximstely 2/ The estimotes of the reproduction rates sre not very sensitive tc tho level of es. The estimotes belong to the period during which the children in the child-womon rotio used were born. Hence it is advisable to use the aporoximate es for the some period. 3/ The moximum error in the estimation of gross reproduction rote from 58 censuses of 20 such countries wss 0.14. The medion absolute error wos 0.04. Most of these age distributicns are far from stsble, or quosi- stable, We might exrect hicher degree of errors of estimation for deve- loping countries depending upon the quality of age reporting in quin- quennisl age groups. 931 known. In either case es could be roughly ascertained from the knowledge of the crude death rate by reference to the characteristics of previously worked out stable age distributions. 4/ In a few remaining cases an spuroximste value of eS was assigned by comparison with countries of similar historical background. 6. From the knowledge of the child-womon ratio and the approximate value of eg) the computation of the gross and net reproduction rates was a simple procedure. It involved the use of the coefficients of the linear relationships that we have already established between the child-woman ratio and each of the reproduction rates at different levels of es. 5/ The estimated values of the gross and net reproduction rates for various Asian countries are shown in Table 1. The total fertility rates are obtsined simply by miltiplying the gross repro- duction rates by 2.05, assuming 1.05 to be the sex-ratio at birth. 4/ They are available in United Nations, The Aging of Pomlations and Its de das Department of Economic and Social Affairs, pp.26-27, New York (1956); Ansley J. Coale and Panl Demeny, Regional Model L Tabl Stable P t Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ . 1966 . 5/ The coofficients are being published in J. R. Rele, op.cit. 932 Table 1. The Estimation of Net Reproduction Rate (NRR), Gross Reproduction Rate(GRR), and Total Fertility Rate(1FR) for Asion Countries. Country | e ey, | oh ild Approx. Estimates e Rei o o Period NER GRR TFR Brunei 1960 972 50 1951-55 2.80 3.83 7.85 1947 729 40 1938-42 1.88 3.08 6.31 Burma 1954 513 30 1945-49 1.14 2.39 4.90 1931 57> 30 1922-26 1.27 2.67 5.47 Cambodia 1959 732 40 1950-54 1.89 3.10 6.36 Ceylon 1963 662 60 1954-58 2.06 2.43 4,98 1953 667 50 1944-48 1.92 2.62 5.37 1946 596 30 1937-41 1.32 2.78 5.70 Chins(Teiwan) 1964(E) 831 60 1955-59 2.59 3.05 6.25 1956 747 50 1947-51 2.15 2.94 6.03 1940 767 40 1931-35 1.98 3.24 6.64 Cyprus 1960 537 70 1951-55 1.74 1.84 3.77 1946 498 60 1937-41 55 1.82 3.75 “Hong Kong 1965(E) 672 TO 1956-60 2.19 2.31 4.74 1961 623 60 1952-56 1.94 2.28 4.67 1931 358 40 1922-26 0.95 1.52 3.12 India 1961 665 40 1952-56 1.72 2.81 5.76 1951 603 30 1942-46 1.35 2.81 5.76 1931 610 30 1922-26 1.35 2.84 5.82 Indonesis 1961 705 40 1952-56 1.82 2.98 6.11 Iran 1959 828 40 1950-54 2.14 3.50 7.18 1956 732 40 1947-51 1.89 3.10 6.36 Iraq 1957 825 40 1948-52 2.13 3.49 7.15 Israo1Ÿ/ 1964(E) 550 70 1955-59 1.78 1.88 3.85 1961 572 70 1952-56 1.86 1.96 4.02 1948 313 60 1939-43 0.96 1.14 2.34 933 _ Approx. Country e Chita e° Estim tod Leu a Period MRR GRR TFR Japan 1964(E) 320 1955-59 1,02 1.08 2.21 70 1960 405 60 1951-55 1.25 1.48 3.03 1955 528 60 1946-50 1.64 1.93 3.96 1950 509 50 1941-45 1.46 2.00 4.10 1945 521 50 1936-40 1.50 2.05 4.20 1940 576 50 1951-35 1.66 2.26 4.63 Jordon 1961 800 50 1952-56 2.30 3.15 6.46 Korea,Remblic 1960 731 50 1951-55 2.11 2.87 5.88 of 1955 657 50 1946-50 1.89 2.58 5.29 Kuwait 1965 847 50 1956-60 2.44 3.33 6.53 1957 693 40 1948-52 1.79 2.93 6.01 Macau 1960 694 50 1951-55 2.00 2.73 5.60 1950 526 40 1941-45 0.84 1.38 2.83 Malaysia Malaya 1957 803 50 1948-52 2.31 3.16 6.48 1947 T35 40 1938-42 1.90 3.11 6.38 1951 576 30 1922-26 1.27 2.68 5.49 Sabsh 1960 800 40 1951-55 2.07 3.38 6.93 1951 593 30 1942-46 4.51 2.76 5.66 Sarawak 1960 846 40 1951-55 2.19 3.58 7.34 1947 704 30 1938-42 1.56 3.28 6.72 Mongolia 1956 462 50 1947-51 1.33 1.81 3.71 Nepal 1961 553 30 1952-56 1.22 2.58 5.29 Pakistan” 1961 956 40 1952-56 2.47 4,04 8.28 Philipnines 1960 842 60 1951-55 2.63 3.09 6.33 1948 782 50 1939-43 2.25 3.08 6.31 1939 799 40 1930-34 2.06 5.38 6.93 RyukyuIslands + 1960 718 70 1951-55 2.34 2.47 5.06 1950 522 60 1941-45 1.62 1.91 3.92 1940 665 50 1931-35 1.91 2.61 5.35 934 | Censu Child- Approx. Estimates Country Y Woman o Ratio? © Period — NER GRR TFR Sikkim 1961 693 40 1952-56 1.79 2.95 6.01 Singapore 1957 806 60 1948-52 2.51 2.96 6.07 1947 625 40 1938-42 1.62 2.64 5.41 Syris 1960 863 50 1951-55 2.49 3.40 6.97 Thoiland 1960 759 50 1951-55 2.19 2.9 6.13 1947 705 40 1938-42 1.82 2.9 6.1 1937 701 30 1928-32 1.55 5.26 6.68 Turkey 1960 713 50 1951-55 2.05 2.80 5.74 1955 646 50 1946-50 1.86 2.54 5.21 1950 581 40 1941-45 1.50 2.46 5.04 1945 654 40 1936-40 1.69 2.77 5.68 1940 706 30 1951-35 1.56 3.29 6.74 The letter (E) after the year indicstes estimated repulstion aad not from oc census, The estimoted populstions were acceptable in a few coses with relisble statistics to sesess the most recent trends. The mmber of children aged 5 tc 9 years divided by totsl women in the age grcup 20 to 54, times 1,000. The 1948 census figures refer to the Jewish porulstion of Israel; the 1961 ond 1964 figures refer tc the totsl population. These are probably over-estimstes becsuse of irregulsrities in the census sge distrioution over-stating the mumber of children in the age group 5 to 9. Source: ‘The basic data are obtained from: 1. United Nations, Demogranhie Yesrbooks 1948-1965, New York. 2. Office of Porulation Research, Pomlation Index, Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey, Vols.3-32, 1957-1966, 935 INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR THE SCIENTIFIC STUDY OF POPULATION SYDNEY CONFERENCE 21st - 25th August 1967 Session X "GENERAL TOPICS" Moderator +: J. Bourgeois-Pichat Thursday, 24th August, 1967 4.15 p.m. to 5.30 p.m. 937 DERIVING CURRENT ESTIMATES OF THE POPULATION OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO BY ADMINISTRATIVE AREAS AND BY AGE Jack Harewood Director of Statistics - Trinidad and Tobago 1. The Continuous Sample Survey of Population, (C.S.S.P.), started in May 1963, provides data from which two independent estimates of population by administrative area can be made, with some breakdown by age and sex. This paper gives a brief descrip- tion of the two methods which have been used to derive such esti- mates, and compares the results obtained for the population as at 30th September, 1965. The first method, called here the vital statistics method, (VS), utilises information on the births, deaths and internal migration of each area; while the second, called here the growth rate method, (GR), uses the sample count of population to derive a measure of the rate of growth for each administrative area. 2. The C.S.S.P. sample scheme is a two-stage one. The first stage sampling units are the 1,462 non-institutional enumeration districts used in the 1960 Census of Population, stratified into the nine domains of study used in this paper. In each stratum ED's were selected with probabilities roughly proportional to the number of households at the 1960 Census. Over the whole country a sample comprising 432 ED's are listed and enumerated in every six month period - January-June and July-December - and the observations over a six month period (called a Round) are used to derive esti- mates. 3. The 432 selected ED's are completely listed in each Round. The information collected from each household, includes the num- ber of males and of females 15 years old and over, and the number of children under 15 years of age. 938 4. From each ED, a cluster of about six households are select~ ed at the second stage, with probabilities inversely proportional to the first stage probability. These selected clusters of households are enumerated in detail, and it is at this stage that information on internal migration is obtained. 1 - The Vital Statistics Method 5. It is possible to derive current estimates of the total popula- tion of each administrative area within Trinidad and Tobago, by starting with the 1960 Population Census count for the administra- tive area, adding the births and subtracting the deaths applicable to that area, and making an adjustment for the net migration be- tween that area and all other places (i.e., other administrative areas in the country, or other countries). Statistics on births and deaths have, for many years, been classified by the area of normal residence’ of the mother and of the deceased respectively, but prior to the introduction of the C.S.S.P., there was no current estimate of the net movement of persons into and out of the various areas. 6. Data have been available, from the inception of the C.S.S.P., on the net internal migration of persons born in the country. Since 1st January, 1966, data have also been available on the net internal migration of persons born outside of the country. As regards ex- ternal migration, data are again available from mid 1963 for the local born, and as from 1st January, 1966 for the foreign born, on the number of persons living in each administrative area whose last place of normal residence was outside of Trinidad and Tobago. However, no information is available from the Survey on the num- ber of persons who have moved from an administrative area in Trinidad and Tobago to another country. 7. In this paper only internal migration of the local born population is directly taken into account while the small net ex- ternal migration is distributed among the areas in relation to their total population. The data for 1966 indicate that the omission of internal migration of the foreign born would not significantly affect the result i.e. the distribution of the population by area. 939 8. The estimates of internal migration from the C.S.S.P. is based on information on (a) the place of present residence; (b) the place of last residence; and (c) the number of years that the person has been living in the present place of residence. The place of present residence, refers of course, to the administrative area within Trinidad and Tobago, but the place of last residence may either be an administrative area in Trinidad and Tobago or else a foreign country. 9. To reduce the problems relating to persons who have moved more than once during the reference period, and for whom the "last address" would not necessarily be the same as the place of residence at the beginning of the period, only movements during the past year are used in these estimates. 10. The C.S.S.P. has provided information relevant for the direct estimation of migration for the year ending mid-year 1964 and for subsequent years. It was therefore necessary, first of all, to find some means of using the C.S.S.P. data to provide an esti- mate of internal migration during the period from the census of 1960 to mid 1963. The approach adopted was to derive an estimate of the net internal migration for each administrative area for the year preceding the 1960 Census and from these, obtain net internal migration rates for each county by dividing the above estimate of internal migration by the population in the administrative area at the 1960 Census. These internal migration rates were then used to estimate internal migration in each year up to the 30th June 1963 using the method described below. 11. This approach assumes that the pattern and the rate of in- ternal migration during the period 1960 to 1963 was not signifi- cantly different from the period after 1963 for which C.S.S.P. estimates were available. In fact it was decided to use the informa- tion from the first three rounds of the C.S.S.P. as a basis for measuring the migration prior to 1963. 940 The Quality of the Internal Migration Data 12. Table 1 gives the figures of the net internal migration of local born males into or out of each administrative area for the period Census 1960 to mid-1965, by age, derived by the method described. 13. The pattern of internal migration is what is generally expected, i.e., the two municipalities - Port of Spain and San Fernando - both lose population through migration to the suburban counties - St. George and Victoria - while all the rural administra- tive areas are also net losers through migration, on account of the rural to urban movement. 14. But while the pattern of internal migration, taken for the period 1960-1965 as a whole, is in the direction and of the volume that might be expected, for the period for which information has been available from the C.S.S.P. the number of migrants, and in a few counties the direction of the flow of net migrants, has changed significantly from one round to the other. 15. While it is outside the scope of this paper to seek to explain these fluctuations in internal migration from one Round to the other, the fact that the fluctuations are so significant does cast some doubt on the accuracy of the internal migration estimates for the period 1960-1963 which are derived by using average data for the period after 1963. 2 - The Growth Rate Method 16. An independent estimate of the population of each admin- istrative area is obtainable from the count of the number of per- sons in each household which is obtained for all households in the selected first-stage sampling units at the listing stage of the C.S.S,P, Since the 1960 Census Report, Vol. II, gives the popula- tion of each enumeration district by age and sex, it is possible to estimate the rate of growth of each administrative area since 1960 from a comparison of the total census count with the current listing for the selected ED's in a county. 941 17. While, according to the usual VS method, the population of Trinidad and Tobago would have risen between the 1960 Census and 30th September, 1965 by 17% or about 2.5% per year, the C.S.S.P. listing indicates a growth of the total population of only 11% or 1.8% per year. The VS estimates for the country as a whole is accepted as correct, and the difference is assumed to be due to under -counting at the C.S.S.P. listing. 18. To allow for the under-count at the C.S.S.P. listing the distribution of population on the basis of the above growth rates has been carried out in two steps. In the first step, the growth rates are used to estimate the population of each administrative area as at 30th September 1965, but the total is less than the VS estimate. (Col. 1 of Table 2). Next, the population of each admin- istrative area is raised by the ratio of the VS estimate of the pop- ulation of the whole country, to the GR estimate of the total (Col. 2 of Table 2). This second step now makes the population of the administrative areas add to the VS estimate for the country, but on the assumption that the under -enumeration at the C.S.S.P. listing is uniformly spread over all areas. 3 - Comparison of the Two Estimates and a Modified Estimate 19. An attempt is made below to decide which of the two methods provides a more reliable breakdown by area, and to derive a revised area breakdown. 20. Looking first at the distribution of the total population (Table 2 Cols. 2 and 3), the most striking point, however, is the extremely close agreement of the two sets of estimates for most areas. In two of the nine administrative areas - Victoria and St. Patrick - the differences are numerically and proportionately negligible, and in four other areas, the differences are 3% or less. In the two municipalities - Port of Spain and San Fernando - the differences were 3% and 5% respectively, the GR estimate being lower than the VS estimate in each case. 942 21. The areas with the largest numerical differences are Caroni and St. George, where the VS and GR estimates differ by about 7,000; and the areas with the largest relative differences were the island ward of Tobago, and the County of Caroni, where the GR estimates were larger than the VS by 12% and 6% respectively. 22. These two areas - Tobago and Caroni - are both very rural, and it seems very likely that the listing in both areas was virtually complete. This is supported by the fact that even the unadjusted GR estimate (Col. 1) is slightly higher than the VS estimate in each case. 23. On the other hand, the listing is likely to be more incomplete in the urban areas - Port of Spain, San Fernando, and St. George - and for these three areas it is therefore likely that the unadjusted GR estimates should be raised by much more than the average rais- ing factor for the country as a whole. 24. Taking into account the above, a revised distribution of the population by area is proposed in Col. 6. In this, the unadjusted GR estimate is adopted as correct for Caroni and Tobago, while the VS estimate is maintained in Nariva/Mayaro, St. Andrew/St. David, and St, Patrick, in all of which the differences are in any case negligible. 25. It seemed likely that in both Port of Spain and San Fernando, where there are large general hospitals, the VS method may have tended to over estimate the population because births in the hos- pitals may have often been registered, in error, as relating to the municipality (i.e. the place of birth) instead of the normal place of residence of the mother. This is probably borne out for Port of Spain, where the VS estimate of the population under 15 years old is 4,500 higher than the GR. It is not borne out however, for San Fernando, for the VS estimate is here slightly lower than the GR for children, but is about 10% higher for both male and female adults. Taking into account the probable under -counting of the Port of Spain population at C.S.S.P. listing, on the one hand, and the probable over -count of births on the other, the 'revised' estimate for this city is taken as the arithmetic mean of the two estimates. 943 26. For San Fernando, the population 0-14 years does not differ appreciably by the two methods, the VS estimate being 13,000 and the GR adjusted 13,800. Here, after considering different poss- ibilities, it has been decided to accept the adjusted GR estimate of 13,800, For the 1960 Census the ratio of children to women was about 115, and for the GR estimate about 117, but for the VS esti- mate only 100. It seems therefore, that the number of women has been over -estimated by the VS method. Using the 1960 census ratio of 115, the number of women, given that there were 13,800 children, should be 12,000. 27. As regards the number of men per 100 women, the GR and VS estimates are quite close - 93 and 92 respectively. This would make the number of men about 11,200, and the total popula- tion of San Fernando is taken as 37,000. 28. The two estimates for St. George are almost identical for males 15 years old and over, and have a difference of only 1% for children under 15 years of age, but the GR estimate is 5,000 less than the VS in the case of adult females (an error of 5%). Refer- ence to the ratio of adult male and of children to women 15 years and over indicate that the GR estimate is probably more in error, having under -counted the number of women. On the other hand, in the case of the remaining county - Victoria ~ the ratios imply that the number of women in the VS estimate is too low. 29. The number of women in Victoria is therefore taken as very nearly the VS estimates. For males 15 years and over and children the VS estimates are used in St. George as a residual, the number of children in Victoria is almost identical with the GR estimate, while the figure of male adults is slightly higher than either the GR or the VS estimate. While keeping the total population for Tobago the same as the unadjusted GR estimate a small shift in the com- ponents has been made, the number of adult males being reduced by 200 and the number of children increased by a similar amount to obtain more reasonable ratios of these figures to the number of women. TABLE 1 NET INTERNAL MIGRATION BY AGE AND SEX FOR PERIOD 7th APRIL 1960 TO 30th SEPTEMBER 1965 (a) “MIGRATION IN LAST YEAR'' FOR EACH YEAR — Continued Male “Migration in Last Year” for: Age Area Group 7/4/60— | 1/7/60— | 1/7/61 | 1/7/62 || 1/1/63— | 1/7/64— | 1/7/65 | Tote} 30/6/60 | 30/6/61 | 30/6/62 30/6/63 30/6/64 30/6/65 30/9/65 30/9/65 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Portof Spain 0 —14 | — 200 — 750 — 800 — 800 — 950 |- 250 + ... — 3,750 15 —44 | — 100 — 450 |— 450 |— 450 — 550 |— 800 — 300 — 3,100 45 + — 50 — 200 |- 20 — 200 — 250 |— 150 — 100 — 1,100 Total — 350 — 1,400 |— 1,450 | — 1,450 — 1,700 — 1,200 — 400 — 7,950 San Femando 0-14 — 50 — 200 j|— 200 — 200 — 100 |— 100 — = 850 15 — 44 — 50 — 200 |- 200 |— 200 + 200 — 500 — 150 — 1,050 45 + —... — 50 |— 50 |— 50 - 100 |— 50 - 50 — 400 Total — 100 — 450 |— 450 |— 450 + 50 —. 650 — 200 — 2,300 St George 0 —14 | + 300 + 1,150 |+ 1,290 |+ 1,200 + 1,150 |+ 650 + 50 + 5,650 15 —44 | + 250 + 1,050 |+ 1,100 |+ 1,100 + 1,050 |+ 1,200 + 300 + 6,100 45 + + 50 + 300 |+: 300 |+ 300 + 250 |+ 100 + 100 + 1,350 Total + 600 + 2,500 |+ 2,550 |+ 2 650 + 2,450 | + 1,900 + 400 + 13,100 Caroni 0 —14| — 50 — 200 |- 200 |— 200 - 50 | - 100 +... — 700 15 —44 | — 100 — 400 |- 400 |— 400 — 500 |— 250 — 50 — 2,100 45 + +... + 50 |+ 50 |+ 50 + 100 |+ 100 +... + 350, Total — 100 — 500 — 550 — 550 — 450 — 250 — ... — 2,450 Nariva/ May aro 0 —14| —... — 100 |— 100 |— 100 — 100 |- 50 |- ... — 400 15 — 44 —... — 100 — 100 — 100 — 150 — 100 — 50 — 600 45 + +... + e. + . + ... —- o... — — ... + 50 Total — 50 — 150 — 150 — 150 — 250 — 150 — 100 — 1,000 76 TABLE 1 NET INTERNAL MIGRATION BY AGE AND SEX FOR PERIOD 7th APRIL 1960 TO 30th SEPTEMBER 1965 (a) “MIGRATION IN LAST YEAR'' FOR EACH YEAR — Continued Male “Migration in Last Year" for: Age Area Group 7/4/60—| 1/7/60— | 1/7/61— | 1/7/62— 1/7/63— | 1/7/64— | 1/7/65— a 30/6/60 | 30/6/61 30/6/62 | 30/6/63 30/6/64 30/6/65 30/9Y65 30/9/65 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) St. Andrew/St. David 0 —14| — 50 — 290 |— 200 — 250 — 200 |+ 50 + 50 — 800 15 —44| — 50 — 200 |— 200 — 250 — 100 | + 150 + 50 — 600 45 + —... — eee |= eee — 50 — ... |+ 50 + 5 - Total — 100 — 450 |— 450 — 500 — 300 |+ 250 + 150 — 1,450 Victoria 0 —14| + 100 + 450 |+ 450 + 500 + 250 | — 50 —... + 1,700 15 — 44 | + 150 + 70 |+ 700 + 750 + 250 | + 500 + 250 + 3,300 45 + +... + 50 | + 50 + 50 + 50 |— ... + 50 + 250 Total + 300 + 1,150 |+ 1,200 + 1,250 + 550 |+ 450 + 300 + 5,250 St. Patrick 0-14) —... = 50 | — 50 - 50 + 150 — 100 - 50 - 150 15 —44| — 50 — 250 |— 300 — 300 — 5 |+ ... —... — 1,000 45 + — 50 — 100 — 100 — 100 - 50 | + ... — — 4 Total — 100 — 400 | — 450 — 450 + 50 — 10 — 50 — 1,550 Tobago 0 —14| — 50 — 100 |— 100 — 100 — 200 - —... - 650 15 —44| — 50 — 150 |— 150 — 150 — 2XM0 |— 150 — 50 - 950 45 + - - = - -— - —... — 50 Total — 50 — 250 |— 300 — 300 — 400 — 300 — 100 — 1,650 Trinidad & Tobago 0 —14| +400 |+ 1,600 [+ 1,650 | + 1,700 || + 1,550 |+ 700 |+ 100 + 17,350 15 — 44 + 400 + 1,750 | + 1,800 + 1,850 + 1,500 | + 1,850 + 600 + 9,400 45 + +100 |+ 400 |+ 400 | + 400 || + 350 |+ 250 | + 200 + 2,000 Total“ | + 900 | + 3.650 |+ 3,800 | + 3,900 || + 3,100 | + 2.650 | + 850 + 18,350 *Sum of the “Total” rows for the various areas sr6 ESTIMATED TOTAL POPULATION BY AREA AS AT 30.89.65 FROM VITAL STATISTICS AND TABLE 2 GROWTH RATE METHODS Growth Growth Vital : Rate Rate Statistics Difference Difference Modified Ares Method Ao ve (2) — (3) ws (3) Estimate Unadjusted G.R. Estimate (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Trinidad and Tobago 928,200 978,000 978, 000 + 12,400 +1 978,000 Port of Spain 85,100 89, 700 92,600 — 2,900 — 3 91,200 San Fernando 34,700 36, 600 38,600 — 2,000 - 5 37,000 St. George (incl. Arima) 316,400 333,400 340,300 — 6,900 - 2 339,400 Caroni 105,400 111, 000 104, 400 + 6,600 + 6 105,400 Nariva/Mayaro 24,600 25, 900 25,600 + 300 + 1 25,700 St. Andrew/St. David 41;500 43,700 42,800 + 900 + 2 43,000 Victoria 163,200 172,000 171,700 + 300 172,400 St. Patrick 119,800 126, 200 126,800 — 600 126,400 Tobago 37,500 39,500 35,200 + 4,300 + 12 37,500 976 ESTIMATED POPULATICN 15 YEARS AND OVER AS AT 30.9.65 FROM VITAL STATISTICS AND TABLE 2 GROWTH RATE METHODS Male (Adults) wes sers | cm |, | ee | Pee | un Unadjusted Adjusted Method - (3) (4) + (3) Estimates (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Trinidad and Tobago 256, 300 276,900 276,900 + 3,700 + 1 276,900 Part of Spain 26, 100 28,200 27,400 + 800 + 3 27,400 San Fernando 10, 200 11,000 12,100 —1,100 — 10 11,200 St. George 89,700 96,900 97,500 — 600 -1 97,700 Caroni 27, 900 30, 100 28,100 + 2,000 + 7 27,900 Nariva/Mayaro 6,700 7,200 7,600 — 40 —5 7,600 St. Andrew/st. David 11,300 12,200 12,500 — 300 - 2 12,600 Victoria 43,700 47,200 47,400 — 200 . 47,700 St. Patrick 31,100 33,600 34,800 — 1,200 - 3 34, 900 Tobago 9,600 10,400 9,500 + 900 +9 9,800 176 ESTIMATED POPULATION 15 YEARS AND OVER AS AT 30.9.65 FROM VITAL STATISTICS AND TABLE 2 GROWTH RATE METHODS Female (Adults) Ares Give: yy Vital Difference | P! eee Modified Unadjusted Adjusted Statistics (2) — (3) (4) + (3) Estimates (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Trinidad and Tobago 268, 800 284,700 284,700 + 8,600 + 3 284,700 Port of Spain 31,100 32,900 31,400 + 1,500 + 5 31,800 San Fernando 11,100 11,800 13,200 — 1,400 —11 12,000 St. George 93,700 99,200 106,400 — 7,200 - 1 104, 200 Caroni 27,200 28,800 26,500 + 2,300 + 9 27,200 Nariva/Mayaro 6,600 7,000 6,500 + 500 + 8 6,600 St. Andrew/St. David 11,300 12,000 11,000 + 1,000 + 9 11, 100 Victoria 43,500 46,100 44,700 + 1,400 + 3 45, 900 St. Patrick 33,700 35,700 35, 100 + 600 + 2 35,300 Tobago 10,600 11,200 9,900 + 1,300 + 13 10,600 gt6 949 On Some Hungarian Family Statistical Data Louis /Lajos/ Thirring Budapest 1. Since World War II the social structure of Hungary’s population has considerably changed. At the same time also some demographic processes /their nature, rhythm and trend/ have under- gone a change. In the scope of recent Hungarian population censuses ef- forts were made to register the impact of these changes not only on the development and structure of the population but also on the characteristics of the family /size, composition/. In this respect instructive and detailed data are available on basis of the population census of 1960; they are supplemented with the data of the microcensus of 1963.1 A concise account of the efforts of our population cen- suses in the field of family statistics - up to and including the population census of 1949 - ves given at the International Popula- tion Conference, held in 1961, / by presenting some characteris- tic data relating to 1949. At the same time, an other publication dealt with the methods and primary results of family statistics of the Hungarian population census of 1960. In the present paper we intend to complete the numerical material of our publication of 1961, by limiting ourselves to one single aspect: the socio-economic classification. As far as metho- dological problems are concerned, we refer to the two publications mentioned above. 2. Our data are contained in five tables which can be evaluated easily. We have only some comments on them. According to the data of Table 1, under the impact of the processes indicated, the distribution of the families by socio- 1/ See: The Population Census of 1949, Yol.lo lo and 12; The Popula- tion Tensus of 1960, Vol. 7, 12 and 13; The Personal and Family data of the Microcensus of 1963. Our data are taken from these publications. Thirring, L.: Family Statistics. Work Done in the Scope of Hun- garisn Population Censuses. International Population Conference, New York /1961/, I, 260-267. Tamdsy J.: Some Preliminary Results of the Family and House- hold Statistical Surveyins o! the 1960 Hlunzarian Population Census, International Population Conference, few York /1361/, -259. 2/ 3/ 950 economic strata has radically changed. The sudden and great fall of the number of families of the agricultural independents - which number had temporarily increased due to the land reform of 1945 - was equalized only in part by their joining "en masse" the agri- cultural producers’ co-operatives, established in the meantime in large numbers, and, recently, by the inclusion of a smaller part in the group of pensioners. Beside the breaking up of the families as a result of a not too significant biological dying out, this considerable decrease reveals also the relative rural depopulation under the impact of the quickened rate of urbanization and in- dustrialization in the villages and agriculture /the flow of young- er generations with family or at the age of founding a family into non-agricultural strata, the lack of replacement/. The increasing number of families of the industrial and other workers and of non- manuals points to the remarkable strengthening of the secondary and tertiary sectors also in Hungary. Beside the organization of ‘the old-age pension system on a country-wide scale the increase of the member of pensioner families is connected naturally also with aging. The two types of indices of the family size - the total number of family members and children resp., per loo families /see Table 2/ indicate, undoubtedly, a decline, but, as a matter of fact, in the groups of independents and pensioners only; the average family size increased or hardly changed in the groups of manuals and non-manuals who became satureted with elements ori- ginating from elsewhere /agriculture etc./. By the way, in the different groups the average family size is highly and increasing- 1y different on account of the different rates of the decrease of birth, nuptiality,aaging, migration to or migration from etc; the difference between,extreme values was 383 and 286 resp., /total family members/ and 176 and 9o /"children"/ in 1949, hardly 15 years later in 1963 it increased to 378 and 245 resp., and to 175 and 56 resp. Leaving out of consideration the group of pen- sioners, the differences, though conspicuously smaller, increased as well. The data of Table 3 relating to the average number of ' younger children per family are not quite homogeneous; the data processed in 1949 covered one age year less than the data pro- cessed in 1960 and 1963. Calculated on the same basis the average number of younger children per family would be about 7 per cent higher in 1949 than the figure shown /the final result for the country as whole would be 94 instead of 88/. Taking into account also this the picture obtained on basis of the data is rather similar to that of Table 2, though the rate of decrease is lower and the difference between the extreme values is greater /which fact is connected especially with the obviously small number of children of the pensioner families/. It should further be noted that, after a short increase, the decrease of births /growing to- wards the end of the period under review /1949-1963/ / manifest4 itself somewhat more definitely when comparing 1960 with 1963 than in the data of the average number of children of Table 2. The data of the two complementary columms of 1960 /0-6 and 7- 14 year old children resp., per loo families/ reveal a remark- able differentiation which can be attributed to the impact of different factors: in the groups of workers the average number of the 0-6 year old children /7 age years/ surpasses that of the 7-14 years old /8 age years/; in the other groups just the opposite can be experienced. 951 It 4s evident that the differences in the age structure exercise a great influence over the differences in the family size by socio-economic groups. The age specific average number of chil- dren per family describes also in Hungary a characteristic - in- creasing, culminating and decreasing - curve /1960 data/ Age of the head Number of children of per family loo families under 20 years 65 20-29 years old 105 30-39 " " 175 40-49 " " 273 50-59 " ” 106 60 years old and older 52 Total 126 Taking into account this and the different age structure of the heads of families belonging to different strata /Table 4/ the differences between the average numbers of children are almost evident. While, in 1960, for instance, the proportion of the 30-49 year old heads of families with the relatively highest number of = children in the group of industrial and other workers was 53,8 per cent, in the group of agricultural independents it amounted to 34,7 per cent only. Similarly, also the proportion of the younger and older heads of families reveals a characteristical difference, Thus in the families of the industrial and other workers 22,6 per cent of the heads of families were under 30 years of age and almost the same proportion - 23,6 per cent - was 50 years old and older; in the group of non-manuals these two percentages were highly dif- ferent /14,2 and 25,3 per cent/ and they were even more different among the independents /5,8 and 59,5 per cent/ and the members of agricultural producers’ co-operatives /7,4 and 56,5 per cent/, re- vealing an aging structure. By the way, not only the age structure of the heads of families belonging to the individual groups, but also, generally, the age structure of the families reveals such peculiar differences /the last two columns of Table 4/. In Hungary an ever growing part of the able-bodied population is gainfully occupied. With minor differences or fluc- tuations this process is emphasized also by the family statistical data of the population censuses /Table 5/. 3. In order to characterize the manysidedness of the Hungarian data it should be mentioned - as was mentioned also in an other place?/ - that in the greater part of the socio-economic groups heterogenity within the family - taking into account the living together of the manual and non-panysl family members within the same family - is not too significant. More exactly it was not too significant after the great social mobility following World War II, when mobility was significant both from the social and regional 4/ Szgbady, E.: Demographic Characteristics of Hungarian Families Statisztikai Es 17, Tobl 715667 5/ Thirring, L.: Population active et inactive: quelques données et réflexions. Te Session de l'Institut er de Statistique /1965/. 6/ Considering also the additional mingling between agricultural workers and other workers heterogenity is, of course, essentially greater. 952 aspect. In 1960, for instance, manuals and non-manuals were living together in 1,8 per cent of the families of agricultural workers, in 8,8 per cent of the families of the industrial and other workers, in 2,1 percent of the families of agricultural independents and in 7,9 per cent of the families of other independents. At the same time, heterogenity, viewed from this aspect, was essentially eater in the families of non-manuals: in 26 per cent of them /in 26,4 per cent of them including the non-manuals of the producers’ co- operatives/ manuals and non-manuals were living together within the same family which fact is not surprising if we consider that since 1945 this group has absorbed considerable masses from other Tables on the Socio-Economic Characteristics of Families in Hungary General notes. The classification is based on the socio- economic position /group/ of the head of family /the primary tables contain a more detailed classification/. The categories of inde- pendents include also the unpaid family members, the pensioners cover also widows receiving a pension. The population census of 1949 does not show separately the group of the members of producers’ co-operatives /the number of families belonging to this group was not significant then/. For 1949 in our sources of data the group of pensioned manuals includes also the original group "others" shown as unclassifiable. 953 "Table 1" Number and Distribution of Families, 1949-1950 Families Socio-economic groups - 1949 1960 1963 a/ Number /1/ Agricultural 132.317 114.171 185.100 /2/ Industrial and | workers other 616.138 1,087.932 1,081.450 /3/ Non-manuals 195.578 366.974 400. 350 /4/ Producers’ agricultural . 359.351 577.300 /5/ co-operative industrial and, manu- members other als . 61.347 59.450 14.137 20.700 non-manuals . 1,026.278 447.094 55.600 /6/ /7/ Agricultural /8/ Industrial ana Y independenta other 239.032 88.029 63.100 /9/ Manuals, pensioned 134.460 170.593 320.150 /10/ Non-manuals, pensioned 41.309 46.963 63.550 Total 2,385.112 2,756.591 2,826.750 b/ Percentage /1/ Agricultural 5,5 4,1 6,5 /2/ Industrial and workers | other 25,9 39,5 38,3 /3/ Non-manuals 8,2 13,3 14,2 /4/ Producers’ agricultural RAL . 13,1 20,4 /5/ co-operative industrial and/ als members other 2,2 2,1 non-manuals . 0,5 0,7 /7/ Agricultural 43,0 16,2 2,0 /8/ Industrial and rindependents other 10,0 3,2 2,2 /9/ Manuals, pensioned 5,7 6,2 11,4 /10/ Non-manuals, pensioned 1,7 1,7 2,2 Total 100,0 100,0 100,0 954 "Table 2" Average Family Size, 1949-1963 1 Socio-economic groups Family members Children”/ fees Ie text of per loo families 1949 1960 1963 1949 1960 1963 /1/ 357 373 378 153 175 175 /2/ 348 342 343 142 141 140 /3/ 328 330 330 119 123 123 /4/ . 326 324 . 125 123 /5/ . 325 326 . 121 124 /6/ °° 358 355 . 145 141 11 383 308 293 176 112 99 /8/ 347 317 308 137 113 103 /9/ 288 251 245 109 63 58 /10/ 286 246 248 90 57 56 Total 357 326 324 152 126 123 1/ Children living together with their parents /or parent/ who did not yet marry /or who were again unmarried/, irrespective of their age "Table 3" Average Number of Younger Children, 1949-1963 0-13 o-14 o-14 0-6 7-14 Socio-economic groups /See lateral text of year old children per loo families Table 1/ 1949 1960 1963 1960 /1/ lol 139 139 73 66 /2/ 93 112 lo8 59 53 /3/ 81 95 90 46 49 /4/ ° 78 T6 34 44 /5/ . 89 84 41 48 /6/ e 114 lo6 50 64 /7/ 95 65 57 27 38 (a 208 8% € o /18/ 24 13 bs 4 9 Total 88 90 86 44 46 955 "Table 4" Age characteristics of families, 1960 From among the heads of families Fam- Fam- ilies ilies Socio-economic under 60 groups 30 years 30-39 40-49 50-59 years em joins. /See lateral text of age old and J °°" & 1d of Table 1/ older uu. pon Ph percentage people” only /1/ 20,8 29,5 18,7 18,8 12,2 17,9 20,2 /2/ 22,6 31,9 21,9 17,7 5,9 19,0 15,0 /3/ 14,2 35,4 25,1 18,3 7,0 11,9 18,6 /4/ 7,4 16,8 18,9 28,7 28,2 6,1 38,7 /5/ 12,6 26,7 26,2 24,1 10,4 10,4 20,9 /6/ 8,5 34,7 27,3 19,9 9,6 7,1 23,2 /7/ 5,8 16,2 18,5 27,0 32,5 4,8 41,3 /8/ 4,1 19,6 25,1 26,0 25,2 3,4 34,1 /9/ 0,7 2,5 4,7 13,9 178,2 0,6 80,8 /10/ 0,2 1,3 2,9 lo,1 85,5 ol 87,7 Total 14,1 24,9 20,1 20,8 20,1 29,2 11,8 1/ Including also those under 20 years of age; their proportion amounts to 0,3 per cent among the total families. - 2/ those under 30 years of age. - 3/ 60 years old and older, together with families consisting of old people only. "Table 5" Average Number of Barners and Dependants, 1949-1963 Earners Socio-economic groups /See lateral text of per loo families Dependants per loo earners Table 1/ 1949: 1960 1963 1949 1960 1963 /1/ 138 141 151 159 164 151 /2/ 142 157 169 146 118 lo3 /3/ 138 171 185 138 93 79 /4/ . 152 177 . 114 84 /5/ . 167 179 . 95 82 /6/ . 154 176 . 132 lo2 YA 168 190 157 128 62 86 /8/ 142 151 156 145 llo 98 19/ 138 159 160 109 58 53 /10/ 155 168 173 85 47 43 Total 153 163 171 134 loo 90 956 DIE RECHTSGESETZE ALS INSTRUMENT DER EEVOLKERUNGSPOLITIK by EWA KOZLOWSKA Jur.Dr., Dozent habil. der Rechtswissenschaft Lehrstuhl fir Rechtswissenschaft an der Hochschule ffir Skonomie zu Katowice /Polen/ 1. In der Gestaltung der sozialen Verhf#ltnisse spielt das Recht eine wichtige Rolle im Sinne aller Verhaltensregeln, welche von der Staatsmacht bestimt oder sanktioniert sind und deren strikte Einhaltung durch Staatszwang garantiort ist. Das Recht im solchen Sinne als Instrument der Gestaltung der BevBlkerungsver- h<nisse durch die Staatsmacht ist der Inhalt der Rechtspolitik. Die Rechts- politik bedeutet die wissenschaftlich begründete Voraussicht der Folgen, wel- che man im Falle dor Einfllhrung bestimmter Rechtsvorschriften erhofft und die Bearbeitung solcher Regeln, durch deren Einflthrung in des gllltige Rechtssystem auf dem Wege der Gesetzgebung /oder auf anderem Wege, z.B. in den internatio- nalen Verträgen/ bestimmte Erfolge erzielt werden sollen”. 2. Aus dieser Definition ist ersichtlich, dass die Rechtspolitik eine Wissen- schaft von grosser Bedeutung und gleichzeitig sehr kompliziert und schwierig ist. Sie verlangt nicht nur griindliche Kenntnisse der demographischen Verh<- nisse, welche durch die Vorschriften geregelt werden sollen, sondern auch ge- naue Kenntnis der gesamten Rechtsmittel, um in jedem Fall das richtige auswihlen zu kBnnen. Es kommt vor, dass eine gut formulierte Rechtsvorschrift nicht die vom Gesetzgeber erwtinschten Erfolge hervorruft, sondern dass entweder andere als die vorausgesehenen hervorgerufen werden oder dass sie den Absichten des Gesetzgebers entgegen wirken. 3. Die Grllnde dieses Rechtsstandes k¥nnen verschieden sein. Man kann sie auf der Seite des Gesetzgebers suchen, wenn er z.B. nicht alle Legislationsmotive richtig beachtet hat und nicht die richtigen Rechtemittel zum Erreichen der be- absichtigten Ziele gefunden hat. - Der Grund der Erfolglosigkeit der Rechtsvorschriften kann auch seitens der Bev&lkerungsgruppen gegeben sein, deren soziale Verh<nisse der Gesetzgeber re- geln wollte. Das kann z.B. im Falle der Gegens&ätzligkeit zwischen den Interessen dieser Gruppe und der Gesamtbev&lkerung vorkomnen. Es kann auch so sein, dass keiner der genannten Gründe diese Gegens&tzligkeit zwischen den sozialen Erfolgen der Rechtsvorschriften und den Absichten des 957 Gesetzgebers hervorgerufen hat, sondern d&ss noch andere Grände bestehen. Der Grund kann auch in der Anwendung dieser Rechtsvorschrift durch die entsprechenden /daftir zust@&ndigen/ Organe liegen. Jede Rechtsvorschrift muss naturgemäss so allgemein formuliert werden, dass sie bei ellen im Leben tat- sächlich vekommenen Situationen, welche eine Rechtsregelung verlangen, ange- wandt werden kBnnen. Bei der Formulierung der Rechtsvorschriften bestimnt des- halb der Gesetzgeber gew8hnlich nur den Rahmen, in welchem den rechtsanwende- ten Organen die Freiheit der Entscheidung gelassen wird, wie man die Rechts- normen anwenden soll um die entsprechenden Ziele zu erreichen. 4. Genaue und präzise Beobachtung der Bev&8lkerungsverhäl tnisse - welche auf wissenschaftlichen Prinzipien beruht - ist notwendig nicht nur um die Zweck- m&ssigxeit der Gesetzgebung und der Anwendung der schon gllltigen Rechtsvor- schriften zu erforschen, sondern erm8glicht such solche in der Bev8lkerung Prozesse festzustellen, welche eine rechtliche Regelung verlangen. Das ist die Wirkung der Rechtspolitik de lege ferenda, welche dem Gesetzgeber vor viel verantwortungsvolleren Aufgaben stellt als die Anwendung der Rechtswirkung de lege lata. 5. Man kann deshalb die These aufstellen, dass es eine wechselseitige Bezie- hung zwischen den demographischen Prozessen und den sie gestaltenden Rechts- gesetzen gibt. Je besser die Bedingungen und Zusammenhfinge erforscht werden, desto zweckmässiger wird die Rechtspolitik sein, welche die demographischen Prozessen gestaltet. 6. Die BevBlkerungspolitik dient der Verwirklichung der &konomischen und so- zialen Ziele, welche durch den Willen der Regierung bestimmt werden. Die Be- v8lkerungspolitik kann nicht stabil sein, sondern muss der sich wandelnden politischen, Skonomischeñn und sozialen Situation nicht nur in diesem Staate, sondern auch in anderen Staaten /hinsichtlich z.B. der Ein- und Auswanderun- gen/ angopasst werden. Die ffir den ganzen Staat bestimmte Bev8lkerungspolitik soll nach Bedarf auch für kleinere geographische Gebiete bestimmt sein, wenn das ihre speziel- len Eigenschaften verlangen. Die Bev8lkerungspolitik muss deshalb auf das engste mit dem Generalpro- gremm der sozial-8konomischen Entwicklung des Landes und seiner einzelnen Regionen abgestimmt sein. T. Die Rechtspolitik kann man durch die Herausgabe von flir den ganzen Staat gUltigen Rechtsvorschriften realisieren. Man kann sie aber auch auf dem Wege der Rechtssprechung der durch die 8rtlichen Behbrden herausgegebenen Vor- schriften im Rahmen ihrer durch die allgemeinen Rechtsgesetze gegebenen Kom- petenzen verwirklichen. Die durch die 8rtlichen BehBrden herausgegebenen Rechtsvorschriften ba- sieren euf den regionalen Eigenschaften der &konomischen und der Bev8lkerungs- situation dieser Gegend. 8. Das Ausmess der rechtlichen Regelung der BevBlkerungsprozesse kann sehr umfangreich sein. Es erstreckt sich auf die natlirliche Bewegung der Bevélke- rung und die Migrationen hinsichtlich des Standes und der Struktur der Be- 958 v8lkerung. Durch die Rechtspolitik kann man nicht nur die vorl¥ufige Gestaltung der BevBlkerungssituation beeinflussen, sondern auch vor allem die der Zukunft. 9. Aus den vielen Problemen, welche sich bei der Erforschung der Zusemmenhfnge zwischen dem gliltigen Recht und den LevUlkerungsprozessen ergeben, wihlen wir einige Beispiele aus. a. Allgemein bekanntist der demographische Zusammenhang zwischen der Ehe- schliessungsziffer, dem gegenseitigen Heiratsalter und der ehelichen Frucht- barkeit. Die Eheschliessung, die Ehescheidung, als demographische Fakte sind gleichzeitig auch die juristischen Erscheinungen. Die Eheschliessung sowie auch die Ehescheidung, die Rechte und Pflichten der Ehepartner untereinander, das Verh<nis zwischen den Eltern und den Kin- dern regulieren entsprechende Vorschriften des Fahilienrechtes, welche Teil des Zivilrechtes ist. Jäder Femilienkodex bestimmt das Alter der Heiratsf&thigkeit. Die unterste Grenze des Heitatsalters kann füür die beiden Partner egal oder verschieden festgelegt werden. Diese Altersgrenze zur Heiratsf&higkeit soll man mit vie- len sozialen und Skonomischen Motiven begrinden. Durch die Erniedrigung dieser Altersgrenze kann man die Bev8lkerungsentwicklung beschleunigen, weil man den jlngsten Jahrglngen im Reproduktionselter die Eheschliessung erm8glicht. Eine ungünstige Auswirkung des niedrigen Eheschliessungsalter ist die ho- he Anzahl der Ehescheidungen als Ergebnis von st&ändigen Auseinandersetzungen in der Familie. Man hat viele Forschungen in verschiedenen Lindern über die Grände der Ehescheidungen vorgenommen, um Hilfsmassnahmen festlegen zu k&nnen. Es wurde festgestellt, dass die Ehescheidungen viel Bfter diejenigen Ehen be- treffen, welche durch Personen in sehr jungem Alter geschlossen wurden als die- jenigen von Alteren Personen. be. Auf die stándig in verschiedenen Lindern steigende Ehescheidungsziffer hat auch den Einfluss - unter vielen Faktoren - die Feststellung in dem gliltigen Familienrecht der Bedingungen, welche als Griinde zur Ehescheidung durch das Gericht anerkannt werden sollen. Es geht nähmlich um die zweckm&ssige Fest- legung solcher juristischer Elemente, welche die Leute vor einer leichtsin- nigen Eheschliessung bewahren sollen und andererseits den wirklich nicht zu- sammenpessenden Ehepartner ermglichen die Ehe zu 1&8sen. Dem Schicksal der minderjAhrigen Kinder muss dabei in dem Familienrecht die grUsste Beachtung geschenkt werden. Diese rechtliche Regelung der Ehescheidungen soll auf Grund von demograp- hischen und vielen anderen Forschungen vorgenommen werden, da sie auch bestimmt grossen Einfluss auf die Zahl der Ehescheidungen und auch auf die Geburten- ziffer hat. ce. Ganz besonders grossen Einfluss auf die Gestaltung der Bev8lkerungsprozesse het die Femilienpl&n@iVerbreitung unter der BevBlkerung, wenn die Rechtsgesetze auch dazu angepasst werden. Es handelt sich vor allem um die rechtliche Re- gelung der Schwangerschaftsunterbrechung und die Zugänglichkeit der Antikon- konzeptionsmittel flir alle erwachsene Leute im Lande. 959 10. Alle beispielsweise angegebenen Rechtsvorschriften gehfren zum Zivilrech®. Andere Rechtszweige heben auch groése Bedeutung flir die Bev&lkerungsptozesse. Hierher gehBrt vor allem das Verwaltungsrecht, welches solche Rechtsbeziehunhen regelt, wo der Staat als Partner auftritt. Der Staat kann deshalb die P£lichten und Rechte des anderen Partners dieser Rechtsbeziehungen gestalten, in verschie- denen FXllen sogar gegen den Willen des Einzelnen, der als Partner in diesen Be- ziehungen auftritt. a. Der Grund zur Formulierung des Verwaltungsrechtsgesetzes ist die Statistik. Schon die Festlegung der Begriffe der statistischen Einzelerscheinungen und der statistischen Masse, wie &uch der statistischen Merkmale erfordert die Zusarmen- arbeit der Juristen und der Statistiker, wenn es sich um die Untersuchung gesell- schaftlicher /also auch demographischer/ Erscheinungen.handelt, die mittels gel- tender gesetzlicher Vorschriften reguliert werden, Vom statistischen Standpunkt gesehen ist die richtige Definition der statistischen Einzelerscheinung und ihrer statistischen Merkmale Grundlage der HomogenitAt der statistischen Masse. Nur so kann man mittels Anwendung von Methoden statistischer Anelyse ein richtiges Bild der in der gegebenen Masse auftretenden Gesetzm#ssigkeiten erhalten. db. Die Bev8lkerung kann Personen umfassen, die laut Vorschriften über die Volks- zugehbrigkeit Birger des gegebenen Staates sind, oder die Bewohner eines gegebenen 6rtes sind, also die Meldepflicht erfllllt haben. Alle Anderungen der BevUlkerungs- zahl werden euf Grund der Evidenz der BevBlkerungsbewegung erfesst, die durch Ver- waltungsvorschriften genau reguliert ist, sowohl in Bezug auf die Geburten, wie auch auf die Sterbefälle und Bin- und Ausreisen, also die Wanderungsbewegung der Bev8lkerung. ce Uber Anderungen des Zivilstandes informieren die Standesfmter suf Grund der geschlossenen Ehen und rechtsgültiger Scheidungen gem#ss dem Familienrecht. Sómit bestimmt die Tätigkeit aller dieser auf Grund des Verwaltungsrechtes oder Familienrechtes wirkenden Organe für die statistischen Organe auf bimdende Weise den Begriff der statistischen Einzelerscheinung und der statistischen Masse: z.B. der Bewohner, die sesshafte Bev8lkerung, Geburten, Sterbefllle der BevBl- kerung, speziell der S#uglinge, Ehen, Scheidunger. d. Die Fläche des Staates ist eingeteilt in Verwaltungseinheiten. Entsprechende Vorschfiften des Verwaltungsrechtes bestimmen den Rechtsstatus einer jeden solcheh Einheit der territorialen Staatsteilung /z.B.St#dte, Kreise, Bezirke/. Die Ein- teilung der Bevllkerung in Stadt- und LandbevBlkerung hfngt also vom rechtlichen Status des gegebenen, von der Bevälkerung bewohnten Ortes ab. Als Grundlage bei der Berechnung der Bevélkerungsdichte der einzelnen Bezirke und Stádte dient die Teilung in Verwaltungseinheiten. Infolge von Anderungen im BevBlkerungstustand eines Ortes oder infolge der Anderung des Skonomischen Charak- ters eines Ortes, werden die territorialen Verwaltungseinheiten abge#ndert. Dabei kbnnen folgende Fflle auftreten: i. aus einer bisherigen Gemeinde entsteht eine Stadt oder Siedlung, ii. der Stedt werden gewisse Flächen angegliedert, iii. ein Teil des Gebietes wird aus einer gegebenen Gemeinde ausgeschlossen und einer ande- ren Verwaltungseinheit angegliedert. Eine jede Anderung der Verweltungseinheit hat Einfluss auf die statistisch erfasste Bevllkerungszahl. 960 Die ÆAnderungen der territorialen Einteilung müssen bei statistisch-demographi- schen Vergleichen der BevUlkerungszahl in gewissen Zeitst&änden berficksichtigt wer- den, da diese Bezeichnung die Zurechnung der BevB8lkerung zu Stadt oder Land de- terminiert. Wenn man also #ber die Entwicklung einer Stedt spricht, so muss man zugleich wissen, in welchen Verwaltungsgrenzen man die BevBlkerung vergleicht. 11. Die Bilanzen der Arbeitskraft bilden - speziell in der Planwirtschaft - ein wichtiges Instrument der Erforschung der Arbeitskraftmenge und des Bedarfs an Arbeitskräften. Das Seldo zwischen der Grësse der Arbeitskraftmenge und dom Be- dari der Voluswirtschaft auf dem Gebiet der Arbeitskraft weist dereuf hin, wel- che Mittel anzuwenden sind um die Bilanz auszugleichen. Unter vielen verschie- denartigen, die Menge und den Bodarf von Arbeitskräften beeinflussenden Faktoren, haben die Rechtsgesetze als Werkzeuge der sozial-wirtschaftlichen Politik eine grosse Bedeutung. Die Rechtspolitik bt auf Elemente der Arbeitskraftbilanz einen Einfluss aus, haupts#chlich mittels der Arbeits- und Verwaltungsrechtsgesetze. a. Die in der Bilanz engenommenen Altersgrenzen der produktiven Volkszahl, stim- men gewBhnlich mit den der gesetzlichen Regelung in dieser Materie nicht tberein. Die gesetzlichen Vorschriften bestimmen nähnlich entgegens#tzlich sowohl die un- tere Grenze zu Rechtsgeschäften, die zugleich untere Grenze der Arbeitsfhigkeit ist, wie auch die obere Grenze des produktiven Alters. Diese obere Altersgrenze geben Renten- und Pensionsvorschriften für jedes Geschlecht anders an /z.B.fir Männer 65 Jahre, ftir Frauen 60 Jahre/. Die Arbeitskraftmenge kann man vergrB&ssern indem man entsprechende Vorschrif- ten verschiedener Art ausnutzt /zeB. zwei- oder mehrfache Beschäftigune derselben Person auf zwei oder mehr Etaten, Zerlegung des Etats in Teile für zwei oder mehr Porsonen, Ern&glichung der Erwerbsarbeit für Rentenempfänger ohne Verlust der Rente/. b. Personen im vorproduktiven Alter /z.B.vom 16 bis 18 Lebensjahre/ soll das recht besonderen Schutz als jugendlichen Arbeitsnehmern bieten. Minder j#hrige Personen sollen nur Arbeiten Ausfilhren, die ihnen als der Gesundheit sch#dlichen rechtlich nicht verboten sind udd ausserdem soll ihnen die Verpflichtung oblie- gen die Berufsschulen zu besuchen. Obige Vorschriften beschrinken also /in so- zielistischen Staaten/ die M8glichkeit der Beschiftigung von Jugenderbeitern und vermindern ihre Arbeitszeit. ce Gleichartig beeinflussen die Bilanz der Arbeitskraft Vorschriften fiber den Schutz der Frauenarbeit. Frauen dfirfen nicht besch#iftigt werden bei Arbeiten, die ihnen aus gesundheitlichen Rlcksichten verboten sind. Uberdies besteht des Recht den Frauen die Befugnisse zu gelegentlichen Urlauben zu /z.B.Mutterschaftsurlaub, Urlaub zwecks Flirsorge fiir kranke Kinder und Femilien-iitglieder/. de Zwecks Bestimmung des Begriffes "Arbeiter" grosse Bedeutung haben die Vor- schriften des Arbeitsrechtes, die den Beginn, den Wechsel, wie auch die Deendung des Arbeitsverh#ltnisses betreffen. Es handelt sich hier n#hmlich um stetige Arbeiter und Saisonarbeiter, die voll oder teilweise /2.B.in einen gewissen Stun- denausmass/ beschäftigt sind. 12. Die statistische Einheit in der Arbeitskr&#ftebilanz ist ein Arbeiter, jedoch kann die für ihn zulässige Arbeitszeit anf verschiedene Art mittels geltender Gesetzvorschriften festgesetzt werden. Man kann also nicht einfach mechanisch 961 die Arbeiterzahl mit der mittels Gesetzvorschriften gestatteten achtatfindigen Arbeitszeit pro Tag multiplizieren, um aus der Arbeitskräftebilanz in die Ar- beitszeitbilanz zu #bergehen. Das Arbeitsrecht enth#lt genaue Bestimmungen be- zfiglich der Arbeitszeit und Bedingungen der Entschuldigung bei der Arbeitsab- wesekdheit./z.B.im Falle Arbeitsunfähigkeit aus gesundheitlichen Grtnden/. Die statistische Arbeitszeitbilans muss sich also auf die gesamte geltende Arbeitsgesetzregelung stUtzen. 13. Grossen Einfluss auf die BEAT ATOR ears haben die Gesundheitsverhäl t- nisse. Die Bek&mpfung der grossen Epidemien, die friher tausende Opfern ver- schiedener Lebensalter zum Tode brachten, sist dank der masshaft angewandten Impfungen sehr erfolgveitk. Die Verminderung der Sterbefflle infolge der Epi- demien ist ein wichtiger Faktor der VergrUsserung der BevUlkerung der Welt. Man hat aber vor allem diese Epidemien in diesen Staaten bekimpft, wo die ent- sprechenden Verwaltungsgesetze eingeflihrt wurden, welche die Impfung als Pflicht eines jeden Bflrgers, vor allem der Kinder, bestimmt heben. Man k&nnte auch die Beispiele vermehren, wie eng Verwaltungsvorschriften hinsichtlich der Hygiene mit dem Stand der Gesundheit der Bev&lkerung verbunden sind und wie grossen Einfluss auf die Menge der Bevlkerung und Lebensdauer der Menschen austiben. 14. Der Jurist kann auf die BevUlkerungsprozesse mit verschiedenen Mitteln ein- wirken. Die Auswahl des richtigen rechtlichen Mittels seitens des Juristen muss sich also auf die Ergebnisse der statistisch- demographischen Untersuchungen stlitzen, die das gegebene Gebiet der gesellscheftlichen Verhfltmisse betreffen, das der Jurist zu wegulieren bentiht ist. Es scheint, dass die einfachste Form des Einfludses auf die Prozesse der BevBlkerung, die seitens der Verwaltungs- organe herausgegebenen Gebote und Verbote sind. In Wirklichkeit aber werden die- se Mittel seitens der Bev&lkerung sehr ungern entgegengenommen, die Bev&lkerung sucht solche Mittel zu umgehen, trúl Amrendung der Staatsgewalt. Bin Beispiel aus dem Gebiet der natfirlichen Bewegung der Bev&lkerung ist der Verbot die Schwan- gerschaft zu unterbrechen. Die Frauen umgehen diesen Verbot, obwohl diese Opera- tion dann geheim gemacht werden muss und mit dem grossen gesundheitlichen Risiko oft verbunden wird. 15. Es beeteht also das Problem, wes fiir statistische Methoden ffir die laufende Kontrolle des Verlaufs der BevBlkerungsprozesse anzuwenden sind um auf diese schnell und wirksem mittels Besetzvorschfiften einzuwirken. Es scheint, dass die Anwendung aller Methoden der statistischen Analyse demographischer Erscheinungen unentbehrlich ist, entsprechend den Merkmalen und dem Charakter der erforschten Gesamtheit und sich vollziehender Entwicklungsprozesse der BevUlkerung. Die An- wendung verschiedenartiger und modernster Untersuchungsmethoden ist besonders wertvoll um sowohl den Stand und die Gr8sse einer Gesamtheit zu erfassen, als auch seine Struktur und Entwicklungsdynamik zu unterstreichen. Besonders wichtig ist auch die Untersuchung der Verbindungen zwischen den ein- zelnen Elementen und Merkmalen der Erscheinung. Die Untersuchung mflsste nicht nur die laufend auftretenden Gesetzmé#ssigkeiten bestimmen, &ber auch auf die zu- , kfinftigen Entwicklungstendenzen weisen. Die Entwicklungsprognosen der Bevflkerung 962 sind für den Juristen Massstab beztlglich der begehrten legislativen THtigkeit, die die Beeinflussung der Gestaltung einer BevBlkerungserscheinung gem#ss dem villen des Gesetzgebers erzielt. 16. Die wenigen hier angeftlhrten Beispiele sollten den Zusammenhang der Bev&l-. Kkerungsprozesse und der Rechtsvorschfiften und ihrer Anvendung aufzeigen. Sie lassen das Gewicht der Rechtspolitik erkennen, welche unbedingt auf den Ergeb- nissen der demogrephischen Forschungen aufgebaut werden muss. Je enger die Zu- scmmenarbeit des Demographen und des Gesetzgebers sein wird, desto besser die Rechtsgesetze als Instrument der BevBlkerungspolitik ausgenutz werden. 963 The Greatest Demographic Contrast of the World Jaromir Korcak, Prague. 1. The Australian session of the Union for Study of Population faces a very difficult task as the largest and most important demographic entity of the Far East is nearly unknown demographically. As far as the population of China is concerned, only the 1953 total numbers are available while all other demographic data are based on estimates only, or on partial surveys closely limited both to area and time. If demography were to use only statistical data gathered together in a European manner, then nearly nothing could be stated on China. 2. Only, demography is not merely represented by statistical results attained by way of more or less detailed analysis. Demography has also its specific conception, and can therefore enrich scientific knowledge even when lacking necessary statistical data. In our paper we would like to bring general characteristics of both largest geographical entities of the Far South- East from the demographic point of view, however not by means of statistical data relating to individuals but on the basis of historical facts referring to entire nations and main migration streams. Our demographic point of view is given by the fact that we investigate the main migration changes in connection with the age structure notion implying the core of the demographic conception. 3. In "individual" demography we deal with biological changes due to the duration of individuals, that is, with regard to the course of their age. In our paper, that is, in "ethnical" demography, we deal with historical changes, that is, the sequence of economic stages: pre-agrarian, agrarian, agrarian- industrial, industrial, and post-industrial. The historical development is strongly influenced by geographical variety of land, and, therefore, influences its units far more variably than the biological development. Some of ethnical units still live in the pre-agrarian stage while some of them are near the post-industrial stage: such most economically advanced population, therefore, in our /ethnical/ age conception, represents the "oldest" population. 4. The disproportion of the economic development was always one of the causes of the population migrations from time immemorial. The very ancient human craving for better living was one of the driving forces of all migration movements. Migrations changed not only the demographic structure - favourably in immigration countries, unfavourably in emigration countries - but also left 964 consequences of psychical nature: the most courageous people were leaving for countries ebroad while less courageous, more patient people remained at home. 5. What are the aspects of both lergest geographical entities of the Far South-East from this ethnical and demographic standpoint? 6. The so-called China "proper", that is, roughly, the eastern half of the present day country, is a territory having been settled without interruption for a longer time and on a larger area than other countries are. It is probable that an over-population was of such a degree that it could deliver the first population to America /about twenty thousand years ago/. But otherwise China proper used to be more the goal of migrations than their starting-point. Only, were these migrations above all coming from high plains of inside Asia, that is, from non-agrarian areas. It hence follows that they represented only a minimum demographic contribution as the proportion of women in such migrations was especially small, and the nomads were usually less resistant to the diseases of the settled population. The China population, therefore, more than in other countries, grew and developed from itself, it is an autochthonous population par excellence. This population is, therefore, partly very old /in the chronological sense/, partly also extraordinarily homogenous in the sense that it included in itself only very few migrations from distant countries. Under the burden of her special past China developed economically very slowly while, on the other hand, she succeeded on the political field creating the largest nation the world over. T. The western antipole of China - the other largest population concen- tration - represents a real opposite in this sense. Europe also has a population basis which is very old, at least equally old as far as Homo Sapiens is concerned. Only, was Europe receiving migrations from different distant countries, from African shores as well as from inside Asia, all of then bringing experience of different living conditions with them. Some of these migrations stemmed in agrarian populations so that they were better equipped to survive in immigration countries thus becoming a demographic contribution. As compared with China, Europe, as & whole, shows an allochthonous population which is, therefore, an extremely heterogenous in the ethnical sense. 8. As compared with China, ancient Europe was also nearer to the oldest centres of civilization /Egypt, Sumer/ ; it however lasted thousand years at least before Europe took over the production of metals from the Near East. Nevertheless, the industrial revolution originated in Europe while the agri- cultural revolution still took place in the Near East. Europe's economic development sped its population growth unusually /that is, just a reverse process than that taking place in developing countries nowadays/. This can be shown by the data on three largest and most densely populated world areas; India, of course, includes Pakistan. It regards the proportions of the total world's population in the last thousand years calculated on the basis of K.M. Bennet, 1954 estimates. 965 Year China India Europe 1500 25,8 12,2 15,5 1960 23,4 17,5 19,9 9. Europe's proportion increased from 15% to 20% during thousand years while that of China remained the same, and even decreased. In fact, the proportion of European population is by far more numerous as it populated also North America and Australia which continents, at the arrival of the population, were nearly lacking any people /As J. Steward has it, only one million people lived in North America at the end of 15th century/ + The spreading of European population on abovementioned continents however substantially differs from the ancient migration from China to Americas the migration from Europe started only at the agrarien and industrial stage, therefore, in an "older" age in our sense. 10. This fact is of a fundamental significance when considering demographic differences between China and Australia. The first population came to Australia from India probably, and rather late. The oldest population, negritids; were pushed by later immigrations as far as Tasmania but neither the new "aborigines" /veddahid/ could populate Australia as even they were in the pre-agrarian stage. When Australia became the domain of Europeans, these already were in the industrial stage. The population therefore again was too "old" /in the ethnical sense/ to he able to populate such a large territory. It changed too much due to industrial civilization and urban mentality. 11. The Australian population differs from the European and Chinese in that it has no weighted age structure in the ethniéal sense, and that it therefore grows older faster. It does not include that "age" group represented by the native agrarian population which patiently dwells in ancient landscape formed vy the pre-industrial age. This weakening population seems to brake the economic development as Australia /as well as in the USA and Canada/ have attained the highest living standard, higher than that in Europe not mentioning China in the least. If we accept Verhulst's conception of the population development, we must at the same time admit that retardation factors are of positive significance for the future of the world. 12. The population development of European population, especially of that settled overseas, is more and more determined by a trend to attain as high living standard as possible. All the time it is the ancient human craving for better living conditions. It is the fundamental basic trend of human race, as elementary as the instinct for reproduction. The ancient human wisdom however demanded a conscious regulation of instincts. Modern science has 966 introduced the notion of optimum, and attempts to determine optimum conditions both for the life of plants and industrial enterprises, but not those of man. 13. Optimum conditions for an all-sided development of the human race have however not yet become subject of unbiased studies as too much is in play with the prevailing economic point of view. That is why attention is drawn more to lower extremes of the material living standard than to upper extremes. The problem of the optimum is one of the most important social problems deeply relating to the population development. It therefore pertains to the most important subjects of population studies. 967 A REVIEW OF VITAL STATISTICS OF PEKING CITY SINCE 1912 MASABUMI KIMURA The Institute of Public Health, Tokyo 1. Foreword To clear main process of development of levels of health since 1912 and to elucidate their continuity, materials collected and published by Health Bureau of Peking city from 1926 to 1938 and also some materials in vital and health fields from other sources, were analyzed in this paper. 2. Vital Statistics System From 1926 (perhaps) the registration of vital events to the family register book was handled by the family domicile section of Public Security Bureau. From July of 1934, Health Bureau took over the vital statistics system and health statisticians were appointed to work at health centers in the city. System of collection of questionaires was the mixed one; reporting from doctors, midwives, or laymen concerned, and also interviewing to each household every month by them. Schedules used for each of vital events were shown in the Bureau's publication and it was quite the same as the European system or modern Japanese. The registration after liberation of the city was started from 1949 (perhaps). Responsibility for administration on civil registration was returned to the Public Security Bureau, nevertheless, the collection of data and statistical handing of vital registration were done by Health Bureau as far as the city community is concerned. 3. Increase of Population and Household At the end of 1915, population numbered 789,123 and number of household was 148,093. Average number of person in a household was 4.99. In 1928, when the capital city moved from the city to Nanking, the city added four parts of suburbs; East-, West-, North-, and South-wards. About 420 thousand inhabitants were included to the old city at that time. In 1940, it reached at 1,720 thousand. In 1953, adjoined rural districts were integrat- ed to the former city as her fringe. After 1953, several reforms of city management and governing area were reported. At registration-census of 1953, Peking had the population of 2,768,149. In 1956 it was estimated as 3,952,421 including expansion of controlling area. Changes of size of a household were not known, but fragmentary notes suggest that there has been not a great change of it. ( Table 1 ) So far as the inhabitants inside Inner Wall and Outer Wall, 968 annual population growth rate was computed on geometric series function. Inner Wall had the increase of 1.33% per annum for 1917-1937 period, and Outer Wall increased 1.67%, slightly greater than the former; for the period of 1933-1953, Inner Wall increased 1.56%, slightly greater than the pre-war period, and 3.50% decrease was found in Outer Wall for the latter period. Male had 0.2% less increase than those in female. ( Table 2 ) 4. Age Composition The distribution of population by age was available now at hand for each year of 1912 to 1917, both sexes combined, and for 1940, for each sex, in the whole city. For First Health District, where the First Health Center administered the public health activitiés, age composition by sex in 1936, 1937 and 1938 was only accessible. Same as the other urbanized areas, heap in proportion in younger generation and middle ages was found. It was extremely strong among males. Less proportion in younger generation under 20, and higher proportion of people over 45, were found in 1940's, compared with those of 1910's. It is assumed that war conditions affected their births and deaths which make unusual age distribution of 1940 as the results. ( Table 3) 5. Sex Ratio The most typical feature of Peking city inhabitants is the ex- treme in-migrants of male adults to the city. Ratio of male to female in the city in 1917 was 180 per 100 and 156 in 1940. Age groups that have ratio of 200 and over were seen among the age groups between 15 and 49 at First Health District in 1937 as shown in Table 3. 6. Vital Statistics Inaccuracy of reporting or registration of vital events in the city before the war was surely existed. Health Bureau also mentioned facts of registration deficit of vital events in spite of their efforts. In the whole district of city, data on bitths, deaths, marriages, and divorces were poorly collected: rates per 1,000 population were under 20 for births and deaths, from 1929/30 to 1937/38. Particularly in the suburban wards, rates were extremely defected such as 5 or 10 per 1,000. Deaths were reported or registered better than births, then the number of births and deaths were al- most at the same level or sometimes deaths exceeded when epidemics prevailed. This excess eventually balanced with migrated people to the city. In the First Health District, they have a history of vital regis- tration since 1926. Birth aates are almost 33 per 1,000 in average and death rates are 21 per 1,000 in the female population. Infant death rates are at the level of 130 to 200 per 1,000 births with a decreasing trend from 1926 to 1938. ( Table 4 ) After the liberation, new city office started to register vital events of the resident people from 1949. Crude death rate in 1949 was 14,1, decreased to 7.1 in 1957. Infant mortality was 117.6 in 1949, decreased to 35.4 in 1957. Proportion of neonatal deaths among infant deaths deceeased from one half to one third, which movement is rather contrary to the general 969 patterns with decreasing trends in infant mortality. ( Table 5 ) 7. Mortality by age and sex and life table Number of deaths by age group is available between 1933/34 and 1937/38 in the whole Peking city, but their underregistration and insufficient information of population characteristics did not permit to make mortality rates, only three years of 1935-38 period for First Health District could supply the base population for calculation of mortality by age and sex. Crude life table figures were already shown in Health Bureau's publication for the city in 1930 and for Third Health District ( 26.9 for male, and 28.4 for female , expectation of life at birth )pyt.the basic figures were not known. Life tables for Peking city, city district, in 1950 and 1953 were made by K. Li, using Reed-Merrell transforming parameters. Sex ratios of the both life tables mortality were applied for the adjustment factors for comput- ation of 1936-38 “abridged life table for First Health District. Adjustment ratios were 1.25 for quontient of male mortality from age 55 to 80 , and 1.50 from age 15 to 55, and 1.00 for age under 15. Female was not adjusted. Expectation of life at birth thus made for the First Health District was 36.88 for male and 33.61 for female. The figures for the city district in 1950 was 53.88 and 50.22 for each sex respectively and they raised up to 61.18 and 60.52 in 1953. These values present the continuous feature of unfavorable conditions of female health and mortality. ( Table 6 ) 3. Estimates and Checks of Vital Rates through Stable Population Theory Theoretical values of a stable population based on United Nations model life tables were employed to check the actual conditions of population movements among female population in Peking city at various decades. These checks were (a) relation between expectation of life at birth and natural increase rate:r, crude birth rate:b, crude death rate:d, (b) proportional mortality ratio, age 5 and over and b, d, r, (c) age compostion and b, d, r, as contributed by L. Tabah in previous conference. Vital rates thus estimated and muturally checked from a stable population structure of female population, were shown, in addition with the rough estimation of rates for the period of limited data in Peking city as a whole. The demographic conditions of female population were still dis- torted from the stable situation, but the unchanged behavier of childbearing may allow to estimate the rates roughly. Crude birth rate was within the level of 31 to 36 untill 1950, raised to 40 in 1953 and thereafter. Crude death rate decreased from the highest estimate of 36 to 7 per 1,000 in 1957. Infant death rate also deceeased from 270 to 35 during 45 years from 1912 to 1957. Estimated expectation of life at birth in 1957 reached to 68 years. 9. Discussions and Summary As the figures of age composition except war period were compar- ed with those of Milbank Rural Survey in 1929/31, or registration-census in 1953, proportion of 50 years old and over is almost compatible with them and almost seems to be stable. From a stable population theory, this also proves that the urban type of adult generation concentrations affected by in-migrant 970 between 15 and 49 was existed as about 20% of the total male among the male population and the ratio of 10% among the female. The exeess of males was partially caused by underenumeration of young females and infanticide preferably done to female babies, but mainly due to the dominant in-migration of male industrial workers, students, government officials and applicants for this occupation. Health Bureau noted that it was customary with those employees to move in alone though they were married, and when they finish their works or duties about 30 years old, they would return to their place of birth or parent's homes. Vital rates for female is considered to be more suitable to clear the situation of health conditions as they were not so influenced by those in-migrants and the figures of vital events were generally higher than those of males. It does not prove that the registration of vital events among males are so much poor, but it reflect the existence of males who are not related to registration of vital event; his family life properly functioned at his native place, and when he would marry or be caught by illness, he would return to his home and the events registered at his native place. He still enumerated as the de-facto inhabitant staying temporarily it the city for police registration book. The rapid change of levels of mortality after liberation was rather similar to those occured in the Far Fast region of the world. Public health campaigns centered to cleanliness and better sanitation seemed to be the main causes for rapid changes of mortality. Impovement of health condi- tions among infants and children are remarkable and rapid reduction of deaths from infectious diseases occured among them. But the difference between Japan and the city is the level of fertility; no abrupt change of fertility of 40 per 1,000 population in 1950's in Peking city with its contrary rapid decrease in Japan. Debates ahd some type of actions on fertility regulation in the city as well as the country were also occured around those years, in the frame work of social policy. At the time of Paris conference in 1937, the demographic situa- tion in rural areas of Mainland China was reported by F.Notestein and the life expectancy for Chinese in 1929/31 was shown as about 35 years for each sex; losing almost one fourth of new born babies before the age of ten. They are 4 to 8 years shorter than those of Chinese in same period Taiwan. The new life table for First Health District for 1936/38 has the same level expectation of life at birth. In 1957, K. Li published abridged life tables for Peking city, city district, in this report, the life expectancy in 1953 was shown as slightly longer than 60 years for each sex.Three life tables ; Harbin city for 1953/55, Changchun city for 1953/56 and 1957/58 , become available now; it shows that the life expectancy in cities in Northeastern district is nearly 65 years for male and 62 years for female for the period of 1957 to 1958. In all, estimated data and registered figures and rates of vital events show the annual natural increase of 5 per 1,000 population in 1930's acompanied by the high infant mortality and recurrent epidemics of acute in- fectious diseases, and the annual increase of 30 per 1,000 population with further improved health levels in 1950's decade, especially occured among infants and children of Peking city. 1. 2. 3. 4. Se 6. Te 8. 9. 971 REFERENCE Government of Peking City, Bureau of Health ed,, Business Report of Bureau of Health, annual issue for 1934 to 1938, various dates. in Chinese Government of Peking City, Bureau of Health ed., Annual Report of Vital Statistics of Peking City, 25th year, 26th year. Government of Peking City, 1937, 1938. ( in Chinese ) Government of Peking City, Bureau of Health, First Health District Office ed., Annual Report, 12nd, 13rd, 1937, 1938. ( in Chinese ) Southern Manchria Railway Co., Department of General Affairs ed., Population and Area Statistics of Mainland China and tion Surveys of Peking City. Research Material No.12 1923. Japanese ) Li,Kuang-yin, Abridged Life Tables by Sex in 1950 and 1 of the Cit District of Peking City. History of Medicine and Public Health Organiza- tion 1 (2),81, 1957. in Chinese ) Yen, Ching-ching et al, Analysis of Causes of Infant Deaths, Cit District of Peking City. Chinese J.Hyg. 6 (4), 281, 1958. in Chinese ) Yen, Ching-ching et al, Death Rates in the City Districts of Peking. Chinese Med.J. 28, 27, 1959. ( in English ) Aird, J.S. The Size, Composition and Growth of the Population of Main- land China. International Population Statistics Report. Series P-90. No. 15. 1961. Asia Development Agency, Lieson Office at North China ed., Site Conditions of Education in Northern China. 1941. ( in Japanese 10.Hou, Yu-wen, On the Incidence of Acute Infectious Diseases in Peki Municipality. in Proceeding of First General Assembly of Far East Medical Association. 1942 ( in Japanese ) 972 Table 1. Increase of Population & Household, Peking City, 1915 - 1956 Population Household Average Ferson per Household 1915.12 1920. - 1925.- 1930.12 1935.12 1940.11 1948.- 1953. 6 1956.- 789,123 148,093 4.99 849,554 ... ... 1,266,148 ... ... 1,376,943 270,792 5.08 1,554,618 301,429 — 5.16 1,720,236 ... ... 1,721,546 cee ... 2,768,149 ... ... 3,952,921 oes ces source: reference 1,4,8,9. Table 2. Rates of Population Growth, Peking City, City Districts, 1917 - 37 and 1933 - 53 Inner Outer wall wall Annual Growth Rate 1917-1937 1.33 1.67 1933-1953 1.56 -3.50 mumerated Population 1917.12 482,861 328,695 1933.12 618,717 450,913 1937.12 628,853 457,474 1953. 6 830,000 220,000 source: reference 1,4,8. 973 Table 3. Age Composition and Sex Ratio of Population, . Peking City, 1917, 1940, Peking First Health District, 1937 Peking city, 1917 Peking city, 1940 Peking First Health District, 1937 M F M/F X F M/F M F M/F total 100.00 100.00 1.74 100.00 100.00 1.56 100.00 100.00 1.80 o- 5.05 6.13 1.44 2.78 3.75 1.15 4.20 7.43 1.02 5- 5.09 6.41 1.38 3.79 4.69 1.26 5.33 7.42 1.29 10- 5.88 7.00 1.46 6.69 6.59 1.58 7.16 8.74 1.47 15- 8.76 8.24 1.85 7.74 8.00 1.51 10.68 9.59 2.00 20- 11.13 9.33 2.08 8.57 12.04 1.11 11.91 10.07 2.13 25- 12.06 9.36 2.24 11.75 10.65 1.72 11.84 10.19 2.09 30- 11.72 9.56 2.13 11.69 8.97 2.03 10.35 9.26 2.01 35- 10.04 10.87 1.61 10.16 10.10 1.57 9.45 8.14 2.09 40- - 9.05 7.26 2.17 9.31 8.78 1.65 7.75 6.78 2.06 45- 6.68 6.98 1.67 8.32 7.28 1.78 6.63 5.84 2.04 50- 4.69 5.16 1.58 6.60 5.64 1.82 5.24 4.97 1.89 55- 3.66 4.00 1.59 5.03 5.15 1.52 3.90 3.93 1.79 . 60- 2.30 3.10 1.29 3.22 4.03 1.24 2.40 2.88 1.50 65- 1.58 2.16 1.28 2.09 2.18 1.49 1.55 2.11 1.32 70- 0.95 1.32: 1.25 1.46 1.16 1.83 0.98 1.42 1.24 15- 0.68 0.82 1.44 0.50 0.69 1.13 0.49 0.85 1.05” 80+ 0.42 0.63 1.15 0.41 0.33 1.91 0.16 0.39 0.74 sources reference 4,8,10. 974 Table 4. Vital Statistics of Peking First Health District, 1926/27- 1937/38 Total Population Female Population CBR CDR IMR SMR CBR CDR IMR 1926/27 21.8 21.6 183.2 19.5 - 32.0 194.8 1927/28 24.6 20.5 176.4 9.5 - 27.7 177.1 1928/29 18.5 19.9 197.2 6.4 - 27.9 196.7 1929/30 18.0 17.4 172.7 — 23.4 23.6 180.5 1930/31 © 18.8 15.9 142.2 4.9 23.4 20.4 119.7 1931/32 17.5 17.3 190.3 16.4 22.0 24.0 203.0 1932/33 21.1 18.2 179.4 17.6 28.1 24.6 172.3 1933/34 23.9 14.4 133.8 15.0 33.4 20.0 129.7 1934/35 24.3 14.3 126.2 17.9 33.2 19.7 113.1 1935/36 24.0 13.3 99.3 20.0 32.6 19.4 104.8 1936/37 23.5 16.7 149.3 21.0 32.6 24.7 155.5 1937/38 23.4 17.3 138.0 21.6 31.4 23.3 133.1 source: reference 1,2,3. Table 5. Vital Statistics of Peking City, 1949-1957 Total Population CBR CDR IMR NNMR 1949 - 14.1 117.6 - 1950 34.1 13.7 95.5 - 1951 30.7 12.7 86.6 44.0 1952 35.0 9.3 65.7 35.9 1953 139.6 9.3 59.3 31.5 1954 43.1 7.7 146.1 27.3 1955 43.2 8.1 44.5 21.0 1956 39.3 6.7 35.1 17.0 1957 e... 7.1 35.4 13.1 source: reference 6,7. 975 Table 6. Life Table of Peking City, 1950, 1953, and Life Table of Peking First Health District, 1936/38, 1, and e. Male Female First City City First City City Health District District Health District District District District 1936/38 1950 1953 1936/38 1950 1953 1 x 0 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 1 85,700 91,256 93,890 85,570 90,675 94,404 5 61,966 83,873 90,338 60,454 81,659 90,347 10 58,787 82,317 89,686 57,108 80,045 89,551 20 56,022 80,399 88,753 52,792 76,393 87,882 40 49,548 74,319 85,473 43,396 65,712 81,682 60 35,362 57,096 68,651 30,705 51,179 66,532 80 9,682 14,784 17,267 8,390 15,585 20,615 8 x o 36.88 53.88 61.18 33.61 50.22 60.52 1 42.00 58.01 64.14 - 38.24 54.34 63.09 5 53.32 58.99 62.61 49.29 56.19 61.86 10 51.07 55.07 58.05 47.03 52.28 57.39 20 43.34 46.26 48.61 40.43 44.50 48.37 40 27.00 29.22 30.01 27.16 30.13 31.19 60 13.97 14.33 14.25 13.79 15.37 15.57 80 4.86 4.92 4.65 4.88 5.05 4.73 sources reference 5. Table 7. Estimated Values of Vital Rates for Various Periods, Peking City 1912 - 1957, Female Population Peking City Female >——— ealih District 1912-1917 1934-1938 1950 1953 1957 1936-1938 CBR (31-36)(31-36) 34 40 40 (34-36) CDR {315% 29 - 31 14 9 7 25 - 28 NIR o ( 5 ) 20 30 33 8 IMR (230 -270 ; 130 -180 9% 59 35 144 e (28-32) (32-34) 50.2 60.5 68 34 - 36 Notes figures in parenthesis were roughly estimated from data given in the First Health District, 1936-1938. 976 Marital Characteristics in Iran By ASDOLLAH - MOEZI Expert of Plan Organization I. Introduction l. The review of the Iranian History within the last 50 years, indicates fundemental chanzes in the major characteristics of the family system. For centuries marriage rites and motivations have been under the influence of religious teachings. However, contact with Western civilization, expansion of secularization and urbanization have brought about certain changes in the marital institution. Still long lasting controversies can be seen between the older generation trying to keep its attachment with traditions while the new attemps to innovate and accommodate himself with the advanced cultures, In this period of tran- sition, signs of development in the structure and purpose of marriage can be observed. 2. The primary characteristics of marriage in Iran are the following: (a) Universality of marriage, (b) Early marriage (c) Polygamy and (d) Endogamy. 3. Customs and traditions in countries like Iran where family plan- ning is not wide apread, play significant roles in fertility. II. Universality of Marriage 4. Universality of marriage in Iranian Society can be traced back to centuries in the past. Religious teachings, economic necessity and social considerations have supplemently strengthen this institution. 5. The first relatively accurate and comprehensive source of infor- mation on marital status in Iran is the first National Census of November 1956. According to this census among the population of 15 years and over 71.4% of females and 68.5% of males were married. Expectedly, universality of marriage in rural areas has a wider scope than the urban centres. The Census indicates that in rural sections 70.9% of males and 73.3% of females 977 in contrast with 63.5% of males and 67.3% of females were married. Cor- respondingly, 23.8% of males and 12.1% of females in villages and 33.9% of males and 12.1% of females in cities were unmarried. 6. Thus, the population of single males in urban areas is 10.1% higher than the rural sections while the corresponding populations for females are equal. It can be concluded that marriage is almost universally practiced and considered a symbol of social prestige among the women in Iran. 7. The results of a Fertility Sample Survey in rural areas confirms once again the universality of marriage. At the time of survey (1965) 67.8% of women and 63.6% of men in rural households had married and at 44 years of age 99.5% of women and 96.7% men were still married. III. Earlier Marriage 8. According to Iranian civil law the minimum age for marriage of Iranian girls is 15, and of boys, 18 years;and except in cases of emergency. Such as pre-marital pregnancy, marriage at lower age is forbidden. But it should be mentioned that the context of the law is rarely observed and due to the lack of traditional and religious obstacles earlier marriages are frequently seen in rural and tribal areas, and even in small cities. In general, the number of marrying before reaching the legal limit is greater among girls than boys. 9. According to the Fertility Sample Survey of 1965, in rural areas, out of 4743 interviewed women 19.7% (in one area 33.3%) and out of the total (4743) interviewed men 4.7% had been married before the legal age. 10. Historical evidence shows that marriage before maturity age had not been prevalent in pre-Islamic Iran and it was in past-Islamic period it acquired a common feature. Various elements account for earlier marriages, the most important of which ares (a) Religious Factors Islamic teachings give special significance to marriage. (b) Economic Factor: Existence of Patriarchal system, poverty and even avidity of the father tend to encourage early marriage of daughters. (e) Social and Political Factors: In rural areas especially among the tribes, the people engage their children in childhood; this kind of predetermined bondage develops socia-economic inter- dependance between families. (d) Traditional Factor: Generally speaking the Iranian men are inclined to marry younger girls. 978 11. As it has already been pointed out, the age at marriage for both female and male, especially in rural areas, is rather low. Table 1. shows the mean age at marriage by sex and sequence of marriage in rural areas and the city of Tehran. Table 1 - Mean Age at Marriage by Sex and Sequence of Marriage in Rural Areas and City of Tehran - Fertility Sample Survey 1965-66 Sequence Mean age of at Rural area City of Tehran Marriage Marriage Female Male Female Male First Marriage 17.5 23.8 17.5 25.6 Second Marriage 24.0 32.6 24.3 34.3 Third Marriage 26.7 35.9 26.6 39.4 12. Table 1 also emphasizes a relatively longer interval between the first and second marriages, tor both males and females, while this interval is shorter between the second and third marriages. 13. In principal, dissolution of marriages take place in two ways: divorce or death. In the first case, since the couple had a bitter ex- perience of their first marriage, they are reluctant to remarry, and if they do so, they are more cautious. In the second case, the spouse would not rush to a new marriage and usually postpone the remarriage in order to pay traditional tribute to the death of the late spouse. Undoubtely, these-elements extend the interval between the first and second marriages, however, they have a slight effect on the second and third marriages, perhaps because both men particularly women realize that the time remaining for remarriage is short. IV. Polygamy: 15. Islam permits the male to marry four permanent (Aghdy) and numerous temporary (Sigheh) wives. Aside from religious and legal permis- sions, Socio-economic and political factors encourage polygamy in Iran. lt is interesting to note that polygamy is more common in urban than rural areas. In cities bigamy (a man with two wives) can be seen among certain 979 social strata, such as businessmen and people whose professions require them to be on the move most of the time (Truck drivers) but trigamy (a man with three wives) and more are rare in cities as well as in villages. Table 2. presents precentage distribution of monogamy and polyzamy by sequence of marriage of females in rural areas and the city of Tehran. Table 2 - Percentage Distribution of Monogamy and Polygamy in Rural Areas and City of Tehran - Fertility Sample Survey 1965-1966 Sequence of Monogamy Marriage of and Rural Areas City of Tehran Women Polygamy Monoge Ployg. Monoge Polyge First Marriage 97.5 2.5 98.3 1.7 Second Marriage 92.7 7.3 86.6 13.4 Third Marriage 100.0 - 81.8 18.2 16, As the table shows the proportion of polygamous marriages is low especially in rural areas. It is interesting to note that women in their second and third marriages have been more willing to marry the polygamist than in their first marriage; apparently because of social prestige attached to marriage. 17. Recently, various factors have been contributing to the decline of polygamy of which the most significant ares (i) ever-increasing social and economic independance of women, (ii) hardship of subsistence, and (iii) higher expectations of women. - V. Types of Marriage 19. There are two types of marriages in Islam. Permanent (Aghdy) and temporary (Sigheh). But it should be emphasized that the proportion of tem- porary marriages have recently been declining. Generally speaking, some women of lower strata avail themselves of temporary marriages. The functions of temporary marriages have been home management and particularly gratifi- cation of sexual desires. Table 3 shows the percentage distribution of types of marriage by sex and sequence of marriage in rural areas and city of Tehran, Table 3 ~ Percentage Distribution of Types of Marriage by sex and Sequence of Marriage in Rural Areas and City of Tehran - Fertility Sample Survey 1965-66 First Marriage Second Marriage Third Marriage Sequence of Rural Areas City of Tehran Rural “reas City of Tehran Rural Areas City of Tehran Sex Marriage Perman, Tempor. Perman. Tempor. Perman. Tempor. Perman. Tempor. Perman. Tempore. Perman. Tempore. Female 99.9 0.1 99.8 0.2 98.5 1.5 100.0 - 100.0 - 100.0 - Male 99.9 0.1 99.5 0.5 99.4 0.6 98.4 1.6 96.6 3.4 92.9 7.1 086 981 19. As table 3 indicates the proportion of temporary marriage in second and third marriage for both sexes is higher than the first. How- ever, it can also be concluded that contrary to the public belief, temporary marriages are very rare indeed and the permanent marriages are very much upheld. VI. Endogzamy and Exogamy 20. Endogamy is relatively high in rural and tribal areas. Various reasons can be accounted for this: (a) Geographical and Communicational Factors: Long distances and transportation difficulties between villages. (b) Economic and Political Factors: Endogamy is common, because family relationships will be strengthened by such marriages. (c) Traditional and Religious Factors: Religious orders and as well as customs and traditions encourage the marriages between close relatives. 21. Table 4 indicates percentage distribution by degree of rela- tionship of couples in rural areas and the city of Tehran. Table 4 - Percentage Distribution by Degree of Relationship of Couples in Rural Areas and City of Tehran - Fertility Sample Survey 1965 - 1966 Degree of First Degree Second Degree Third Degree Area Relationship No. Relation Relationship Relationship Relationship Rural 67.1 26.4 3.1 3.4 Tehran 75.0 16.1 3.8 5,1 23. As the table points out endogamy is quite widely practiced in rural areas, but it would be expected that the socio-economic changes of recent years would bring about a decline in endogamy. According to the Fertility Sample Survey, in rural areas 43.4% of the couples who had married 30 to 35 years prior to survey and 32% of those who had been married less than 4 years prior to survey were relatives. This decline of 11% for the last 30 years indicates an increasing trend toward exogamy. 982 Bibliography 1, This paper is based upon data collected in the Fertility Sample Survey undertaken by Demographic Section of Institute of Social Studies and Research, Tehran University in 1965-66, the figures of which are tentative. 2. Introduction to Sociolozy of Iran by Dr. S. Rasekh and Dr. J,Behnam professors of Tehran University. 3, The outline of Mohammadan Laws by A.A. Asef 4 Civil Law of Iran by Dr. Shayegan. 5. Civil Law of Iran by Dr. H. Emani, Professor of Tehran University 6, Women in Islam and in Europe by H. Sadr. 7. National Summary Report of 1956 Population Census Summary and Conclusion To epitomize the major characteristics of the marriage institution in Iran, we may suggest them as the following: 24. The Universality of the marriage is declining due to various Social and economic factors at work in the Social System. 25. The marital ties are still strong and the incidence of divorce is rare. The interesting point is the fact that the marital ties are stronger in the first marriage than in the second or third ones respectively. 26. The early marriage in rural and tribal areas occurs. frequently, but it is declining. Early marriage is observed more among the females than it is seen among the males. There is no major class determinants regarding the age of entry into marriage. 27. For various social and economic reasons the incidence of polygamy and temporary marriage is rare. 28. Although the endogamous marriage, particularly among the first degree relatives occurs frequently, the exogamous marriage gains more im- portance with passage of time. 983 MORTALITY TRENDS IN CANADA, 1926-1965* by M.V. George, Ph.D. Demographer Demographic Analysis and Research Section Dominion Bureau of Statistics, Ottawa Introduction 1. The purpose of this paper is to survey briefly the trends and patterns of mortality in Canada during 1926-1965 (since the inclusion of Quebec in the national vital statistics system in 1926} and to examine the prospects for an increase in average longevity. Vital statistics and life tables are the main source of data used for this analysis. 2. Canada has had low death rates since 1926 (the crude death rates have been less than 12 per thousand population) which registered a fairly steady decline up to 1954. After 1954, despite the advances in social and medical care, the trend in death rates had been fairly stable for both sexes. The annual crude death rates varied between 8.2 and 7.6 during 1954 to 1965. Thus while the rate of decline in crude death rate was 28.1 per cent between 1926 and 1954, it was only 7.3 per cent between 1954 and 1965. The fairly stable trend in death rate in recent years may not be surprising because it is obviously impossible for the death rate to decline indefinitely. Further, with an aging population it is possible for the death rate to increase even if there is no change in age-specific death rates?. In this context, a number of questions may be asked on the future course of mortality: a. Has Canada reached the irreducible minimum level in death rate? b. Is the recent stable trend in death rate a temporary phenomenon or does it indicate the starting of a new trend with the prospect of an eventual increase in mortality? c. What implications do recent mortality trends and pattern have on future population growth and life expectancy? A comparison of the Canadian mortality situation with the mortality level and pattern of countries of traditionally low mortality (the Western European and English speaking countries elsewhere), and 984 an examination of the possible medical break through in controlling the major causes of current deaths may indicate the prospects of mortality in Canada. General mortality trend 3. During the period 1926-1965 the crude death rate in Canada dropped from 11.4 to 7.6 per 1,000 population, a decrease of 33 per cent*. Graph 1 shows the trends in crude death rates and standardised death rates (standardised with respect to the age distributions of the 1956 census of Canada) for the period 1926-1965. The fluctuations in the crude death rates during the period are brought about not only by changes in the health conditions but also by changes in the character- istics of the population, particularly the age distributions. A comparison of the crude and standardised death rates indicates the effect of a change in age distribution on the crude death rates. There are less variations in the trend of standardised rates which show a fairly steady downward trend. Thus, the standardised death rates which remove the effects of changing age composition of the population portray a clear picture of the mortality trend. As observed in para 2, two clear trends may be seen from Graph 1: i. the fairly continuous decline in the trend from 1926 to 1954; and ii. the leveling off of the death rate since 1954. International comparison of mortality trends 4. Among the countries which have fairly reliable vital statistics, Canada has one of the lowest crude death rates. Of such countries, Japan (7.1), Soviet Russia (7.3) and Poland (7.4) had lower death rates compared with Canada in 1965". If the comparison of death rates is made between West European and English speaking countries elsewhere, Canada had the lowest crude death rate in 1965. However, where the comparison was made using age specific death rates, it was found that for each sex, the lowest death rates were experienced in Norway, with Netherlands a close second; and Canada either 7th or 8th in 1960”. 5. The tendency for the death rates to be leveled off in recent years can be noticed in most of the countries compared here. In fact, in few countries, such as Norway, the Netherlands and Denmark the trend in crude death rates during recent years has been upward which may be the effect of changes in the age distribution on death rate”, Trend of death rate by age and sex 6. The age specific death rates by five year age groups for males and females in 1926 and 1964 are presented in Table 1. The general pattern of mortality throughout life for both sexes in both the years remains constant - the death rate declines from birth to about age 10, increases gradually from age 10 to 45, and from then increases rapidly throughout the rest of life. However, within the general pattern of mortality there has been marked changes in the death rates during the 985 period under consideration which are shown by the ratios of 1926 to 1964 death rates (see Table 1 and Graph 2). The highest improvement in mortality occurred for children below 15 for males; and for females the children group and the young adults gained. For children the mortality improvement between 1926 and 1964 was 8 to 9 times the rate in 1926. The rate of change in the older ages was very little for both males and females. For age group 60-64 the male death rate in 1964 was higher than the rate in 1926. Unlike females, the rate of change for males between 15 and 40 was only moderate. The changes in age specific death rates shown in Table 1 indicate that the decline in death rates was mostly brought about by decline in infant and childhood mortality. TABLE 1. Age specific death rate (per 1,000 population) by sex: Canada, 1926 and 1964 ; 1926 Age Group Male Female 1964 1926 1964 1926 1964 Male Female Under 1 .. 112.9 27.8 90.0 21.4 4.1 4.2 1-4 ...... 9.0 1.1 8.2 0.9 8.2 9.1 5-9 ...... 2.5 0.6 2.1 0.4 4,2 5.3 10-14 .... 2.1 0.5 1.8 0.3 4.2 6.0 15-19 .... 2.9 1.2 2.9 0.5 2.4 5.8 20-24 .... 3.5 1.8 4.0 0.6 1.9 6.7 25-29 .... 3.5 1.5 4.1 0.6 2.3 6.8 30-34 .... 3.7 1.7 4.6 0.9 2.2 5.1 35-39 .... 4.8 2.2 5.6 1.3 2.2 4.3 40-44 .... 5.9 3.6 6.1 2.0 1.6 3.1 45-49 .... 7.4 5.7 7.5 3.2 1.3 2.3 50-54 .... 10.1 9.5 9.5 5.1 1.1 1.9 55-59 .... 15.7 15.0 13.5 7.7 1.1 1.8 60-64 .... 23.7 25.0 21.0 12.8 0.9 1.6 65-69 .... 38.1 35.5 35.0 20.3 1.2 1.7 70-74 .... 62.6 54.1 54.0 32.8 1.2 1.6 75-79 .... 101.6 80.1 92.8 55.7 1.2 1.7 80-84 .... 152.5 121.3 144.5 96.9 1.3 1:5 85+ 020005 252.6 198.8 274.3 182.3 1.3 1.5 All ages 11.9 8.8 10.9 6.3 1.4 1:7 Source: Computed from DBS, Vital Statistics, 1961 Table D6; and 1964, Table D5. 7. An examination of the trend in death rates for each age group during 1926-64 shows that the highest percentage reduction in mortality occurred for infants and children (see Table 2). The percentage of decline in age-specific death rates during the period 1926-30 to 1964 varied between 86.6 per cent (1-4 age group) and 2.2 per cent (60-69 age group) for males. The corresponding decline in death rates for females varied between 87.8 per cent in 1-4 group and 28.2 per cent in the age group 70 and above. The downward trend for every age group has 986 slackened substantially during the recent years; and for many age groups the death rates have almost leveled off. TABLE 2. Trends in age specific death rates (per 1,000 population) by sex: Canada, 1926-1964 1926-30 1936-40 1946-50 1951-55 1956-60 1964 7 decline Age 1926-30 Average Average Average Average Average to 1964 Male: 0-1... 103.2 71.5 49.2 39.0 33.1 27.8 73.1 1-4 ... 8.5 5.5 2.7 1.9 1.4 1.1 86.6 5-9 ... 2.6 1.8 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.6 75.8 10-14 .. 2.0 1.4 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 77.2 15-19 .. 2.9 2.0 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.2 60.2 20-29 .. 3.7 2.6 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.6 55.9 30-39 .. 4.3 3.4 2.5 2.2 2.0 1.9 54.1 40-49 .. 6.8 6.0 5.4 4.8 4.6 4.6 31.5 50-59 .. 12.9 12.8 12.7 12.7 12.4 12.0 7.4 60-69 .. 30.3 30.0 29.9 29.4 29.7 29.6 2.2 70+ 0. 96.0 93.0 87.2 85.2 86.6 87.0 9.3 Female: : 0-1... 82.8 56.6 38.7 30.6 26.1 21.4 74.2 1-4 ... 7.5 4.7 2.2 1.6 1.2 0.9 87.8 5-9 ... 2.3 1.6 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 82.8 10-14 .. 1.9 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.3 83.8 15-19 .. 2.8 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.5 82.3 20-29 .. 4.0 2.6 1.5 0.9 0.7 0.6 84.8 30-39 .. 4.9 3.6 2.1 1.5 1.2 1.1 77.6 40-49 .. 6.6 5.3 4.1 3.4 2.9 2.6 61.4 50-59... 11.4 10.4 8.7 7.7 7.0 6.3 44.8 60-69 .. 26.5 24.3 21.1 19.1 17.7 16.2 38.9 70+ .... 92.3 86.2 78.8 73.1 70.7 66.3 28.2 Source: DBS, Vital Statistics, 1964, p.20. 8. During the period under review the infant mortality rate has fallen by 73.7 per cent, from a rate of 93.9 in 1926-30 to 24.7 in 19647. The major portion of the total decline in infant mortality during 1926- 64 occurred between 1926 and 1954 (66.0 per cent). Between 1954 and 1964 the share of the total fall in infant mortality was only 7.7 per cent (the rate in 1954 was 31.9). The trends in infant mortality for males and females since 1926 are portrayed in Graph 3. It shows that infant mortality rate has always been higher for males and that the dis- crepancy between male and female rates has been slightly diminished between 1926 and 1964. The graph also shows the slackening in the infant mortality decline for both the sexes in the recent years. 9. The change in the infant mortality trend for Canada appears to have been the result of a combination of factors. According to a 987 recent study by the Health and Welfare Division of the DBS®, much of the reduction in infant death rate over the period is due to low mortality from diarrhoea and enteritis, influenza, bronchitis, and pneumonia, and the virtual elimination of whooping cough as a leading cause of death. Most of these reductions had been effected by 1951. Since then, improvements in mortality had been slackened because of the steady toll from such causes as immaturity, congenital malformations, asphyxia and atelectasis, and accidents. . 10. At all ages mortality decline for females had been higher than males despite the fact that in 1926-30 female death rates were already lower than those for males in most of the ages. It can be seen from Graph 4 that there has been an increase in the ratio of male death rate to female death rate for all the ages over time. The ratio of male to female death rate was highest in the ages 15-30 and lowest for the youngest and oldest ages. The ratios of the male to the female death rate for each age group are presented in Table 3 and Graph 4. In 1926-30 this ratio varied between 0.86 for 30-34 age group, implying lower male death rate, and 1.25 for age 0. But in 1964 the ratios varied between 1.09 for ages 85 and over and 3.00 for ages 20-24. The increasing difference between male and female mortality decline was shown in the trend in life expectancy as well. The female gain in expectation of life at birth from 62.1 years in 1930-32 to 74.2 years in 1960-1962 is considerably larger than the corresponding male gain from 60.0 to 68.4 years”. TABLE 3. Ratio of male to female death rates by age: Canada, 1926-1964 Age 1926-30 1930-35 1941 1951 1956 1961 1964 O .... 1,25 1.28 1.29 1.26 1.22 1.29 1.30 1-4 ... 1.13 1.15 1.18 1.17 1.14 1.30 1.22 5-9 ... 1.13 1.27 1.31 1.43 1.60 1.50 1.50 10-14 .. 1.05 1.08 1.40 1.60 1.50 2.00 1.67 15-19 .. 1.04 1.10 1.33 1.56 2.40 2.40 2.40 20-24 .. 0.95 0.97 1.30 1.90 2.83 2.83 3.00 25-29 .. 0.91 0.88 1.08 1.64 2.00 2.14 2.50 30-34 .. 0.86 0.85 1.00 1.40 1.80 1.78 1.89 35-39 .. 0.89 0.89 1.12 1.25 1.53 1.64 1.69 40-44 .. 0.98 1.02 1.11 1.30 1.42 1.70 1.80 45-49 .. 1.06 1.06 1.22 1.42 1.57 1.81 1.78 50-54 .. 1.10 1.14 1.31 1.60 1.68 1.81 1.86 55-59 .. 1.17 1.14 1.30 1.59 1.76 1.90 1.95 60-64 .. 1.15 1.16 1.31 1.52 1.62 1.88 1.95 65-69 .. 1.14 1.14 1.23 1.41 1.60 1.67 1.75 70-74 .. 1.14 1.14 1.24 1.31 1.44 1.58 1.65 75-79 .. 1.11 1.09 1.20 1.20 1.24 1.38 1.44 80-84 .. 1.05 1.08 1.13 1.12 1.20 1.24 1.25 85+ .... 0.99 1.05 1.06 1.11 1.12 1.09 1.09 All ages 1.09 1.10 1.19 1.30 1.34 1.39 1.40 Source: DBS, Vital Statistics, 1964, Pages 102 to 105, 988 Major causes of death 11. The discussion so far has shown that there has been a marked shift in the pattern of mortality trends during 1926-1964. The observed shift is the result of change in the effect of certain diseases on the level and pattern of mortality. Diseases of infectious origin which were once the major causes of death have been practically eliminated as a result of improved sanitation, wonder drugs, immunization and new therapeutic procedures and advances in social environment. At the same time the relative importance of accidents, chronic diseases and cardio- vascular diseases as causes of death have increased. Hence, a brief analysis of the trends of various diseases and their effects on the pattern of deaths may provide some clues to the problem of change in the general mortality level. 12. The examination of disease specific mortality is limited to the major causes of death in Canada, for each age sex group. Table 4 gives the percentage of deaths due to selected diseases in 1926 and 1965. It can be seen from this table that the leading causes of death have changed over time in Canada. The infectious and communicable diseases which were the leading causes of death in 1926 (lst rank) have become least important in 1965 (9th rank). In 1965 the first five leading causes of death, namely, diseases of the circulatory system (cardio- vascular renal diseases), neoplasms (cancer), diseases of the nervous system, accidents and diseases of the respiratory system together were responsible for 84.1 per cent of all deaths. The sex distribution of deaths by cause of death shows that all the leading causes of death have taken a greater toll of male lives compared with female lives. The highest disparity is now for deaths due to accidents. Of the accidental causes of death, motor vehicle accidents alone constitutes 50 per cent of the total accidental deaths (excluding poisoning and violence). TABLE 4. Percentage of deaths by cause of death and sex ratio, Canada, 1926 and 1965 1926 1965 Diseases Both M/F Both M/F Sexes Deaths Rank Sexes Deaths Rank Infectious diseases ............. .. 17.4 0.96 1 0.8 1.62 9 Diseases of the circulatory system 15.5 1.12 2 40.2 1.54 1 Neoplasms (Cancer) ................ 11.0 0.91 3 17.7 1.21 2 Diseases of the digestive system .. 10.3 1.23 4 3.7 1.72 7 Diseases of the respiratory system 9.9 1.18 5 5.8 1.77 5 Diseasesof early infancy .......... 9.2 1.38 6 3.8 1.42 6 Diseases of the nervous system ..... 7.6 1.09 7 11:7 0.95 3 Diseasesof the genito urinary system 6.4 1.26: 8 1.8 1.65 8 Accidents, poisoning, violence .... 5.5 2.97 9 8.7 2.46 4 Source: DBS, Vital Statistics, 1926, Table 28; 19%65, Table 15, 989 13. The impact of the aforesaid leading causes of death was not the same for the sexes and ages. Certain diseases like cardiovascular diseases and cancer affected mostly the middle and later years of life. The death rates by age and sex for selected diseases for Canadal®? show that (a) death rates are higher for males compared with females from all the main causes of death; (b) except for diseases of the respira- tory system, the death rates for the main diseases are higher for the middle and later years of life; (c) the main causes of death for infants are diseases of the respiratory system and accidents, poisoning and violence and (d) for all causes, the death rates are lowest for ages 15-24. However, because accidental deaths are mostly due to motor vehicle accidents, death rates for accidents are higher for the young adult population compared with their death rates for other causes of death. Discussion 14. The analysis indicates that there is almost a leveling off of death rates in recent years, particularly after 1954 which may be accounted for by a combination of two sets of factors acting against each other. The first is the dramatic drop in death rate for the diseases of infectious and parasitic origin which lost much of its impetus in the 1950's. As a result, the contribution of diseases of infectious origin on death rate became negligible in the recent years. Second, the so-called "new-diseases" such as cardiovascular renal diseases and cancer, and the motor vehicle accidents have become the main causes of death, particularly for middle and old ages. Because of the aging of the population, the diseases common in the adult population may have more effect in bringing about the deceleration of the rate of decline of the death rates. Hence, future trends in mortality depend to a great extent in controlling these diseases. According to a study by Woodhall and Tablon, the largest increment in life expectancy would come from the elimination of cardiovascular disease as a cause of death!!, 15. On the question whether Canada has reached the irreducible minimum in death rate, the examination of death rates by sex, age and cause of death indicates that further declines are possible. Also, comparison of the death rates by age and sex for various countries of low mortality around 1960 and for the provinces of Canada shows that the current death rate for Canada as a whole is not the lowest!?, Although Canada has the lowest crude death rate among the countries of Western Europe and English speaking countries elsewhere, these countries had lower death rates in a number of ages for both males and females!3. Further, there are a number of countries in Europe and Oceania with infant mortality rates below or about 20 per 1,000 live births (the infant mortality rates for Sweden and Netherlands were 12.4 and 14.4 respectively in 1965)!*, In addition, it is possible to reduce the disparity between male and female death rates in Canada. Considering these factors, it may be reasonable to expect that Canada's mortality level will reach near the lowest level recorded in countries of Europe and Oceania and some of the provinces of Canada within a few years. 11 12 13 14 990 FOOTNOTES Paper prepared for the 1967 Conference of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population in Sydney, Australia. The author is solely responsible for any errors or opinions in this paper. See Dominion Bureau of Statistics, 1961 Census of Canada, General Review, Age and Sex Composition, Bulletin 7.1-4, Queen's Printer, Ottawa (1964), p. 8. Spiegelman, Mortimer, Recent Trends and Patterns of Mortality in Highly Developed Countries, Milbank Memorial Fund, New York (1956), pp.52-60. Dominion Bureau of Statistics, Vital Statistics 1961, No. 84-202 (1963), p. 128; and Vital Statistics 1965, No. 84-201 (1966), p. 21, Queen's Printer, Ottawa. United Nations, Demographic Year Book 1965, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York (1966), Table 42. Spiegelman, Mortimer, Recent Mortality Trends in Countries of Traditionally Low Mortality, Contributed paper for the World Population Conference, Belgrade (1965), p. 2. United Nations, Demographic Year Book, 1957 (Table 8); 1961, (Table 14); and 1965 (Table 42), Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York. Dominion Bureau of Statistics, Vital Statistics, 1964, No. 84-202, Queen's Printer, Ottawa (1965), p. 163. Dominion Bureau of Statistics, Life Expectancy Trends, 1930-1932 to 1960-1962, No. 84-518, Queen's Printer, Ottawa (1967), p. 7 and p. 9. See Dominion Bureau of Statistics, Vital Statistics, 1965, No. 84-201, Queen's Printer, Ottawa (1966), Table 16. Woodhall, Barnes and Jablon Seymour, Prospects for Further Increase in Average Longevity, Geriatrics, 12, October 1957, p. 588. United Nations, Demographic Year Book, 1961, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York (1962), Table 14; Dominion Bureau of Statistics, Vital Statistics, 1964, No. 84-202, Queen's Printer, Ottawa (1965), Table D5. Moriyama, Iwao M., Infant Mortality in Certain Countries of Low Mortality, Contributed paper for the World Population Conference, Belgrade, 1965; United Nations, Demographic Year Book, 1965, Table 41. 7-0- : 7 7 7 7 : 7 1926 1931 1936 1941 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 9.00 8.00 7.00- 6.00. 5.00 4.00- 3.00- 2.00- 1.00- 0.00 991 GRAPH |.Crude death rates and standardized death rates (both sexes), Canada, 1926-1964 Crude death rates ————Standardized death rates ELE HIEI LLE Jan out HG tery teers GRAPH 2. Ratio of mortality in 1926 to mortality in 1964,by age and sex,Canada A 7 ! \ / \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ MALES | 1528 \ 1964 1926 ----- FEMAL — EMALES: J 3 + + + 1 ; i + TY T T T T T x T Y T ' T 1 1 ' Y | 5-9 15-19 25-29 35-39 45-49 55-59 65-69 75-79 85+ 1-4 80 70 60 so 40 30 20 ! 992 GRAPH 3. infant mortality rates by sex, Canada, 1926 - 1964 MALE ——- FEMALE —t——4+—— 4——— | Ella EL A ALLE ALA E LLE 1926 1931 1936 1941 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 4.000 3.000 2.000 1.000 GRAPH 4. Ratio of male mortality to female mortality, by age, Canada, 1926—30 and 1964 1964 — .—— 1926-30 993 PREMARITAL PREGNANCIES IN DENMARK, 1950-1965% Sidney Goldstein Professor of Sociology Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island, U.S.A. 1. Comprehensive evaluation of child spacing patterns requires de- tailed knowledge of those births which were conceived before marriage. Yet, such data are not always available. Recent efforts to include a question on "date of first marriage" in the new Standard Certificates of live births to be adopted by the United States in January 1, 1968 were not successful. Official, nationwide data on the interval between first marriage and first birth, necessary to measure the extent and character of premarital pregnan- cies, will not therefore be available. In the absence of this source of information, demographers will, as in the past, have to seek alternative sources to investigate the extent of premarital pregnancies in the United States. Included among such approaches are the linkage of marriage and birth records and reliance upon interview studies. Of necessity, however, such studies must generally be limited in time and/or space and do not therefore provide the basis for comprehensive measurement of trends and dif- ferentials in premarital pregnancies. To gain comprehensive insights into this aspect of fertility and its relation to overall fertility rates and patterns one must turn to countries in which official direct data are avail- able. Denmark's statistics provide such an opportunity. This report util- izes Danish data to explore trends in the level of premarital conceptions, to assess age differentials, and to explore the relation between births out of wedlock and premarital conceptions leading to births within marriage. * This research was initiated while the author was a visiting Fulbright research professor at the Danish National Institute of Social Research. Fellowship support by the John Simon Guggenheim Foundation and the Social Science Research Council is gratefully acknowledged. 1. Lunde, Anders S., and Grove, Robert D., Demographic Implications of the New United States Certificates, Demography, IILI,566-573 (1966). 2. See, for example, Christensen, H.T., Child Spacing Analysis Via Record Linkage, Marriage and Family Living, 25, 272-280 (August, 1953); Glass, D.V., and Grebenik, E., The Trend and Pattern of Family Fertility in Great Britain, 138-145, Her Majesty's Stationery Office, London (1954); Freedman, R., and Coombs, L., Childspacing and Family Economic Position, American Sociological Review, 31, 631-648 (October, 1966); Monahan, T. P., Premarital Pregnancy in the United States, Eugenics Quarterly, 7, 133-147 (September, 1960). 994 2. Since 1938, Denmark's vital statistics have included information on first births by month after marriage, thereby permitting measurement of premarital conceptions. Because of World War II and German occupation, from 1940 until 1945, the early period for which data are available was somewhat abnormal, as was the immediate post-war period. For this reason, this analysis begins with 1950. The Danish data, compiled annually, show the number of first births in wedlock by length of marriage. Marriages of less than one year are subdivided in terms of months, with the major breaks coming between those marriages in which a birth occurred within six months of marriage and those in which a birth occurred within seven to nine months of marriage. The latter category could, of course, include some premature births conceived after marriage. Research suggests, however, that only be- tween five and ten percent of all the births in the seven to nine-month interval are premature births; this does not, therefore, greatly distort this category, particularly for comparative purposes over time. By relat- ing the number of first births which were premaritally conceived to the number of marriages, these same sources also make it possible to estimate the number of brides who were already pregnant at the time of their marriage. This measure is necessarily approximate since the data on marriages and births are not based on the same records; the estimate is obtained by re- lating the number of premaritally conceived births in a given calendar year to the average number of brides both in that calendar year and the preced- ing year. Finally, these same sources of data provide information on the number of children born out of wedlock. This provides statistics on what in the United States would be defined as illegitimate births, that is, children both conceived and born outside of wedlock. The availability of these data permit their integrated use with the information on premaritally conceived first births to provide a more comprehensive picture of the ex- tent of premarital and extramarital conception and to permit evaluation of the extent to which changes in one are reflected in changes in the other. 3. In a study of comparable Danish data for the period 1938-48, Croog found that the percentage of annual first births occurring within six months after marriage in Denmark rose from 26 percent in 1938 to 30 percent in 1948 and that the total percent of premaritally conceived first births ge curring in marriage rose from 31 percent in 1938 to 38 percent in 1948. This trend toward a rising proportion of premarital conception continued during the 1950's and into the 1960's, as shown by the data analyzed in this report which focus on the years 1950, 1955, 1960, and 1964 (see Table 1). In 1950, 30.2 percént of all first births in marriage occurred within six months after marriage; this rose to 34.8 percent by 1964. Similarly, in 1950, 41.7 percent of all first births occurred within nine months after marriage and by 1964 this had risen to 47.7 percent. Thus, almost half of all Danish first births born within wedlock are conceived outside of marriage. 3. Croog, S.H., Premarital Pregnancies in Scandinavia and Finland, Ameri- can Journal of Sociology, 57, 360 (January, 1952). 4. Ibid., 363-364. 995 4, Croog speculated that as knowledge and use of contraception spread in Denmark the rates of premaritally conceived pregnancies might decline even if participation in sexual relations outside of marriage became still more extensive. The data do not point to such a development. Despite changes that have probably taken place in the wider practice of contraception, increasing rates of premarital conceptions persist. The trend must there- fore be seen not in terms of the availability of birth control, but rather in terms of the changing attitudes and values with respect to premarital sexual activity and the conception of children out of wedlock, both of which are more acceptable under Danish sex norms, in part because they are often linked more directly to relationships based on love and oriented toward marriage. 5. Trends in the relation between first births and duration of mar- riage can be viewed from a different perspective, that is, how many brides are actually pregnant with their first child at the time of marriage. In 1950, 23.7 percent of all brides were pregnant at the time of marriage and 17.2 percent gave birth to a child within six months after marriage. These percentages rose continuously during the next 14 years. By 1964, 30.5 per- cent of all brides are estimated to have been pregnant at the time of mar- riage and 22.3 percent had their first child within six months of marriage. These data pointing to a considerable rise in the proportion of brides who are pregnant at marriage therefore support the earlier finding of an increas- ing rate of premarital conceptions. 6. It might be assumed that as the rate of premarital conceptions resulting in births within marriage rises, the rate of births out of wed- lock will decrease.® The evidence, however, does not point in this direc- tion. In Denmark there were 79,558 live births in 1950. Of this total, 5,923 children were born out of wedlock. Of the 83,456 births in 1964, 7,784 were born out of wedlock. Regardless of which measure is used, the evidence points to a higher rate of births out of wedlock in 1964 than in 1950, although the trend within this fourteen-year period is somewhat irregular. For example, the ratio of births out of wedlock to total births rose from 7.4 per hundred in 1950 to 9.3 per hundred in 1964. The rate of births to unwed mothers, that is, the number of such births per one thousand unmar- ried women age 15-49 rose from 16.2 in 1950 to 20.2 in 1964 (see Table 2). The rate, standardized for different age compositions of the mothers at these four time intervals, rose from 16.2 in 1950 to 20.9 in 1964, attest- ing that the change was not a function of the different age composition in those periods. 5. For a fuller discussion of Danish sex norms, see, Croog, S.H., Aspects of the Cultural Background of Premarital Pregnancies in Denmark, Social Forces, 30, 215-219 (December, 1951); Christensen, H.T., Scandinavian and American Sex Norms, Journal of Social Issues, 22, 60-74 (April, 1966). 6. Christensen, H.T., Cultural Relativism and Premarital Sex Norms, Ameri- can Sociological Review, 25, 34 (February, 1960). 996 5 Although the pattern in the "illegitim:te'" births did not directly parallel those births occurring in wedlock but resulting from premarital conceptions, the overall direction of change is the same. In fact, if all premarital conceptions are combined, that is, those resulting in births within marriage and those resulting in births out of wedlock, the data show that the same percent (39.5) of all premarital conceptions ended in a birth out of wedlock in 1964 as in 1950. This strongly contradicts the expecta- tion that an increasing number of births within nine months of marriage might result from a reduction in the number of births out of wedlock. Rather, the evidence seems to point in the direction of changing sexual at- titudes. This is particularly interesting in view of the assumption that during this same period the dissemination of birth control information has become much more widespread. The greater occurrence of both births out of wedlock and births during the early months of marriage seems to stem from a much more general pattern of change associated with more liberal attitudes toward both premarital sexual activity and conception. 8. The data for Demmark as a whole permit detailed examination of births to unwed mothers by age of mother. Such an analysis lends weight to the earlier noted trends. As judged by the "illegitimacy rates" in which the number of births out of wedlock is related to the number of unwed mothers in each age category, the 1964 rates are above those of 1950 for every age group between 15 and 40, and for most categories the differences are considerable. Interestingly, the rates by age of mother suggest a shift in the relative importance of specific age groups with respect to births out of wedlock. In 1950 the group with the highest rate was that aged 20-24. Although this group's rate increased from 27.3 to 33.2, the rise in the 25-49 age group's rate from 22.8 in 1950 to 39.2 in 1964 gave it the highest rate of all groups. This age shift paralleled a similar development in the United_States as did the general increase in the rate of births out of wedlock. This similarity may suggest, with some risk, that the Danish trend on premaritally conceived births within marriage may also parallel the pattern characterizing the United States. Although the findings of Christensen do not support such a thesis, recent data by Freed- man and Coombs point to a considerably higher rate of premarital conception than those suggested by Christensen. 9. The published data for Denmark as a whole do not allow for analysis of age differentials in the pattern of premarital conceptions for children born in wedlock. The Copenhagen Statistical Office prepares special tabu- lations of first births in relation to duration of marriage and age of mother. These data for the capital area, which includes the cities of Copenhagen, Fredericksberg, and Gentofte, permit evaluation of age differ- entials in premarital conceptions. Data on births out of wedlock are also available. The data for this part of the analysis refer to 1950, 1955, 1960, and 1965. 7. Campbell, A.A., and Cowhig, J.D., The Incidence of Illegitimacy in the United States, Welfare in Review, 5, 1-6 (May, 1967). 8. Christensen, Child Spacing Via Record Linkage, 275. 9. Freedman and Coombs, Childspacing and Family Economic Position. 997 10. The published statistics for Copenhagen indicate the same trends as those for Denmark as a whole (see Table 3). Between 1950 and 1965, the proportion of first births occurring within six months of marriage increased from 30.5 percent to 40.3 percent, and the proportion occurring within the first eight months of marriage rose from 44.6 percent to 54.8 percent. Again consistent with national trends, practically all of this rise occurred between 1950 and 1960. The striking fact of these statistics is that four out of every ten births occur as early as six months from time of marriage and that over half occur within the first nine months after marriage. Although the trends are the same as for those of Denmark as a whole, they take place at a higher level. Since the capital represents the most urban- ized part of Denmark, it is not surprising to find there the most liberal attitudes with respect to premarital sexual behavior and premarital concep= tions. This not only affects the behavior of its regular residents but also makes it attractive to persons escaping from more conservative environ- ments in other parts of the country. 11. The rising level of premarital conceptions may reflect changes in sexual attitudes and behavior; it may also be a function of variations between 1950 and 1965 in the age composition of the childbearing population. To assess the effect of the latter, the data on first births by duration of marriage have been standardized for age, using the 1965 age distribution of married women having their first child as the standard population. These standardized distributions confirm that age differentials in the pro- portion of first births account for a considerable amount of the variation that characterizes the level of premarital pregnancies in the capital be- tween 1950 and 1965. 12. Whereas the unstandardized data pointed to a fairly sharp increase between 1950 and 1960 in the proportion of premarital conceptions, the standardized data show very little difference over this ten-year period. Had the 1950 group had the same age composition as the women having their first child in 1965, 37.7 percent would have had their children within six months of marriage. This contrasts to 40.3 percent in 1965. Differences for those having their first child within nine months of marriage are even smaller for the standardized data. The virtual elimination in the differ- ences between 1950 and 1965 suggest, therefore, that the overall increases noted. earlier largely stem from the higher proportion of younger married women among those having their first child in 1965. Almost 76 percent of all first births in 1965 occurred to women under twenty-five years of age in contrast to 58 percent of the first births in 1950. 13. Since the highest proportion (see Table 4) of first births occurring within six months of marriage are for women under twenty years of age and the next highest for women 20-24 years of age, these changes in the propor- tion of younger persons having their first child account for the overall shift in the trend for the capital between 1950 and 1965. As comparison of the age specific patterns will indicate, there has been rather minimal change in this period for specific age groups. For example, in the capital in 1950, 74.4 percent of the first births occurring to married women under 20 years of age were conceived within the first six months of marriage and 91.8 percent within the first nine months. In 1965, the corresponding 998 values were 77.0 percent and 91.9 percent. > For this youngest age group, there were, therefore, minimal variations. The 20-24 year age group is actually the one which has the largest number of first births, approximately half of all first births. Here again the differences for the capital be- tween 1950 and 1965 are minimal. In 1950, 34.8 percent of all first births in this age group occurred within six months of marriage and 53.0 percent within nine months; in 1965, 37.6 percent were within six months and 54.8 percent within nine months. 14. Overall, for 1950 and 1965, the patterms of age differentials are thus quite similar. The youngest age group is characterized by a very high proportion of premarital conceptions among first births. This proportion falls off, but remains above the 50 percent point for those age 20-24. It then declines sharply for all higher age groups. Since the levels by age group have remained relatively constant between 1950 and 1965, the overall rise in the level of premarital pregnancies in this 15-year period is ob- viously related to the increase in the absolute and relative number of younger women having their first children, a considerable proportion of whom were premaritally conceived. The fact that the rise between 1950 and 1965 in the percentage of premaritally conceived first births is virtually elimi- nated when age is standardized is now clearly seen to be due to the control such standardization introduces for the considerably higher number of younger women among the first birth group in 1965 in contrast to earlier years. These data suggest that the overall increase in the level of premarital preg- nancies stems largely from the increased number of younger girls who conceived premaritally in 1965 in contrast to earlier years. 15. Such a trend is also suggested by the higher ratio of births out of wedlock. In 1950, there were 12.7 births out of wedlock for every 100 births within wedlock. This increased to 17.1 in 1960 and to 19.7 in 1965. Viewed as part of a larger complex of changing sex norms, this pattern of significant increase in births to unwed mothers coincides with the higher proportion of premaritally conceived first births within marriage occurring to younger women. In short, the changing norms have led to higher rates of "illegitimate' conceptions with the result that there has been both a rise in the number of births out of wedlock and of first births in wedlock which were premaritally conceived.11 The available data, in themselves, do not suggest why some bear their children outside of marriage whereas a large majority go on to marry before their child is born. This is obviously re= lated to norms which permit premarital sex among engaged couples but which argue for marriage once a child is conceived. To this extent, such pregnan- cies become a decisive factor in determining the date of the wedding. Whether such pregnancies are planned or accidental cannot be determined here. In- vestigation of this and of the spacing relation between birth of premaritally conceived children and those conceived postmaritally to the same couples should prove valuable lines for further research. 10. Under Danish law, permission for marriage is required for brides under 18 years of age, and is generally given only if the girl is pregnant. This practice accounts for some of the inflation in the proportion of early births among the under 20 years age group. 11. A third outcome of "illegitimate" conceptions, abortion, is not consid- ered here. 999 Table 1 First Births by Duration of Marriage, Denmark, 1950, 1955, 1960, and 1964 Duration of Year Marriage 1950 1955 1960 1964 Within 1 month 1.4 1.3 ji 1.0 l=2 months 2. 2.1 2.0 2.1 3-6 months 26. 28. 31.3 31.7 7=9 months 11.5 12.2 12.6 12.9 10=12 months 10.6 10.8 10.7 9.8 1-2 years 22.7 21.5 20.2 20.6 Over 2 years 21.3 23.2 21.7 21.6 Unknown 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.3 Total Percent 100.0 100.0 100.0 100,0 Total Number 21,705 22,015 21,881 25,029 Table 2 Births Out of Wedlock per 1,000 Unmarried Women, 15-19 Years Old, by Age, Denmark, 1950, 1955, 1960 and 196 Age of Year Mother 1950 1955 1960 1964 15-19 years 15.44 13.4 15.7 18.0 20-21; years 27.3 25.4 28.1 33.2 25-29 years 22.8 22,6 31.5 39.2 30=3L years 16.6 16,5 22.1 27.1 35-39 years 10.9 10.5 11.5 13.3 LOL years 3.2 2,8 3.3 3.0 L519 years 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 Total (15-49) 16.2 1.5 16.1 20.2 Total Number 5,923 5,011 5,953 7,78L Standardized on 1950 Age Distribution 16.2 1.9 17.8 20.9 Births Out of Wedlock as Percent of All Premarital Conceptions 39.6 3.3 36.6 39.5 Source: Tables 1 and 2 are both based on data in the respective annual reports of Befolkningens bevaegelser, Statistiske Meddelelser. The Statistical Department, Copenhagen, Table 3 First Births by Duration of Marriage, Copenhagen, 1950, 1955, 1960, and 1965 Duration of Actual Distribution Standardized for Age? Marriage 1950 1955 1960 1965 1950 1955 1960 1965 Within 1 month 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.2 104 1.2 1-2 months 2.0 2.2 1.8 2.2 207 2.5 1.8 2.2 Jub months 27.6 31.3 37.8 36.9 33.9 35.8 38.5 36.9 7=9 months 1.1 13.9 13.7 1.5 15.8 14.8 1.0 14.5 10-12 months 8.7 7.8 7.5 7.5 8.7 7.7 7.7 7.5 Over 1 year 16.7 43.7 37.9 37.7 37.8 38.0 36.6 37.7 Total Percent 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Total Number L,342 3,875 3,662 14,164 Based on Age Distribution in 1965 Table L First Births by Duration of Marriage and Age of Mother, Copenhagen, 1950 and 1965 1950 1965 Duration of Age of Mother Age of Mother Marriage Under 20 2021, 25-29 30-314 35-39 Under 20 20-2}; 25-29 3031 35-39 Within 1 month 3.6 0.5 O. 0.7 - 2.3 1.1 0.5 - l.7 le? months Soli lel 0.5 0.5 l.l 5.8 1.2 le? 2.0 bed 3=6 months 62.4 32.9 12.2 8.2 7.2 68.9 35.3 10.5 20.3 10,0 7=9 months 17.4 18.2 9.5 8.5 5.5 1h.9 17.2 9.0 5.9 1.7 10-12 months LL 10.4 9.2 7.0 7.2 3el 9.7 7.1 5.2 1.7 Over 1 year? bel 36.6 68.2 75.1 79.0 h,? 3515 71.7 66.6 8L.9 Total Percent 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Total Number 608 1,890 1,198 126 181 893 2,256 788 153 60 b.Includes small percent of unknown duration. Source: Tables 3 and Li are both based on data in the monthly reports of Statistisk leia lua Copenhagen Statistical Office, See Vol.27,No.8; Vol.32,No.l; Vol.37,No.8; and Volel2,No. 0001 1001 Trends in Fertility Differentials by Color and Socio-Economic Status in the United States By Clyde V. Kiser Senior Member, Technical Staff Milbank Memorial Fund 1. This paper summarizes the results of data on the subject pre- sented in a volume that is now in press by the present author, Wilson H. Grabill, and Arthur A. Campbell, Trends and Variations in Fer- tility in the United States.l/ This book is one of the series of monographs on vital and health statistics being edited by Mortimer Spiegelman and sponsored by the American Public Health Association with grants from the U.S. Public Health Service. It is expected that the series will be pub- lished by Harvard University Press. 2. The present paper makes no effort to summarize the materials for which the writer's two co-authors were mainly responsible. The co- authors were separately or jointly responsible for chapters on medical and biological characteristics of births, fecundity and family planning, residence, marital status, illegitimacy, economic trends, and cohort fertility. Some of these subjects cannot be ignored altogether, of course, even in a brief summary of trends in fertility differentials by color and socio-economic status. 3. To summarize the situation broadly, there was a rather marked enhancement in fertility differentials by color and perhaps also by religion during the 1950-1960 decade. Among both whites and nonwhites there was a rather marked diminution of fertility differentials by urban- rural residence. Among the whites, but not among the nonwhites, there was also a reduction of fertility differentials by socio-economic status. 4. Color a. The enhancement of the differentials in fertility by color during 1950-60 was evident at all ages of the childbearing period and especially at ages 25-39. For instance,/the excess of the fertility of at ages 25-29 1/ Kiser, Clyde V., Wilson H. Grabill, and Arthur A. Campbell, Trends and Variations in Fertility in the United States. (In Press) 1002 ever-married nonwhite women over that of white women was 19 per cent in 1960 and 27 per cent in 1950. The percentage excess of the fer- tility of nonwhites over that of whites in 1960 tended to be in- versely related with age of woman. In 1960 it extended from 69 per cent at ages 15-19 to 18 per cent at ages 40-44. By type of community the excess in the fertility of nonwhites over that of whites was lower in urban than in rural areas. It tended to be somewhat lower in rural nonfarm than in rural farm areas. The excess in fertility of nonwhites over that of whites was larger in the South than in the other regions. b. The great majority, some 94 per cent,of the people classified as nonwhites in the 1960 Census were Negroes. At youngest ages, under 25, the fertility rates were higher for Negroes than for other nonwhites. The rates were highest for American Indians at older ages of the childbearing period. The ever-married women of Japanese or Chinese birth or ancestry tended to fall into lowest position with respect to fertility of nonwhites throughout ages 15-44. c. Since American Indians are chiefly rural and the Japanese and Chinese are chiefly urban,it is well to hold type of residence con- stant in making the comparisons by specific ethnic groups. Within either urbanized areas or "other than urbanized areas" the fertility rates of ever-married Negro women surpassed those of other nonwhites at ages under 25, the Negro and Indian women had approximately equal fertility at ages 25-29. The Indians surpassed the other nonwhites with respect to fer- tility at ages 30-49 within "other than urbanized areas." Within urbanized areas the fertility of the relatively few American Indians surpassed that of Negroes at ages 30-49 but fell below that of the Japanese and Chinese at ages 45-49. Women of these ages reflected the relatively low fertility of Negroes in cities and the relatively high fertility of families of Oriental origin in our cities a generation ago. Within both urbanized and other than urbanized areas the fertility of. the Japanese ever-married women under 40 years old tended not only to fall below that of other nonwhite groups but also below that of white groups. In this connection it may be noted that the median number of years of school completed by Japanese tended to outrank that of any other ethnic group of women of comparable age, including the native whites. d. Of related interest to the differentials by color are the relatively high fertility rates of the women of Spanish surname as compared with those of other surnames in five Southwestern States in which persons of Mexican origin tend to be concentrated. Likewise, persons of Puerto Rican birth or. parentage exhibited relatively high fer- tility. The fertility of women of Puerto Rican birth tended to surpass that of women of Puerto Rican parentage. Among women of Puerto Rican birth the fertility of those in the Chicago metropolitan area was con- sistently higher than that of women in the New York metropolitan area. 1003 It is possible that differences in type of residence, by occupation and by recency of migration from Puerto Rico are involved in the higher fertility of Puerto Rican migrants in Chicago than in New York. 5. Socio-Economic Differentials in Fertility a. There have been marked contractions since 1940 in the fertility differentials of ever-married white women 25-49 years old in the United States according to either educational attainment of the wife or occupation group of the husband. However, there appeared to be some enhancement of the differentials during the 1950-1960 decade by education among white ever-married women under 25 years old and among nonwhites -of all ages. These trends for the whites and nonwhites are illustrated in Table 1. These figures present the relative variation in fertility rates by expressing the fertility rate of a given educational group as a percentage of the base ratez/ for all white or nonwhite women in the given age group. b. Analyses of fertility data by educational attainment of white women of the 1910-14 and 1915-19 birth cohorts suggested a marked in- verse relation of fertility to socio-economic status during ages 15-19 and 20-24 followed by a relatively marked convergence by the time the women be- came 25-29 or 30-34 and a relatively minor further convergence by the time they reached 35-39 or 40-44. The marked inverse relation at youngest ages probably reflects difference by educational attainment in age at marriage and postponement of births. c. Despite the existing trends toward convergence of fertility rates for various educational and occupational classes, the traditional inverse relation of fertility to these variables was still substantial. It tended to be more pronounced among nonwhites than among whites and more pronounced in rural nonfarm than in urban areas. d. There was an interesting relation of income of the husband during 1959 (the year preceding the April 1960 Census enumeration) to number of children ever born among ever-married white women. The relation- ship was direct for women under 25 years old, virtually non-existent at ages 25-29, and inverse at ages 30-49. It is possible that the direct relation at young ages reflects a greater tendency of the upper income classes to concentrate their childbearing in the early years of married life. Another possibility is that young wives were less likely to be in the labor force if their husbands had high incomes at the beginning of their marital careers. However, the situation deserved further study be- cause it is rather opposite that of the relation of education of wives to fertility at youngest ages. 2/ The base rates for 1960 were standardized to the 1950 distribution of women or ever-married women by educational attainment. 1004 e. As already indicated, the spread of fertility rates by socio-economic status tended to be wider among nonwhites than among whites. This held to the extent that at the upper socio-economic levels the fer- tility rates of the nonwhite ever-married women 25 years of age and over tended to be smaller than those of whites of similar age and socio-economic status and at the lower socio-economic levels the fertility rates of the nonwhites tended to surpass those of whites. Thus in the United States as a whole, a in urban areas considered separately, the nonwhite women or ever-married women reporting college attendance and 25 years of age and over had fewer children on the average than did white women or ever-married women of similar age and college education. Similar situations were found for wives whose husbands had attended college, or were in the professional class or were in the upper income groups. It should be pointed out, how- ever, that the percentage deficit in the fertility of upper class nonwhites was greater when the educational attainment of the wives themselves was considered than when the education of the husband was considered. 6. Census tabulations of fertility in relation to color, age, and age at marriage of wife and three simultaneously considered indices of socio- economic status of the husband (education, occupation group and income) yielded several interesting situations. The tabulations of fertility in relation to the three simultaneously considered indices of socio-economic status of the husband were provided for two age groups of wives (35-44 and 45-54) and two age-at-marriage groups (14-21 and 22 and over). They were provided separately for the white and nonwhite women (married and husband present) and by type of residence. a. The data suggest that age at marriage is a critical factor in fertility differentials by both color and socio-economic status. Among women marrying before the age of 21 the predominant pattern is that of higher fertility of nonwhites than of whites and the inverse relation of fertility to socio-economic status. The chief exceptions were the lower fertility of nonwhites than of whites at the upper socio-economic levels and the relatively few cases of direct relation of fertility according to one criterion of socio-economic status with groups of high socio-economic status according to the two other criteria of status. b. Among women marrying at ages 22 and over, in contrast, the instances of lower fertility of nonwhites than of whites were found much more frequently and at lower levels of socio-economic status than among those marrying at earlier ages. Correspondingly, among women marrying at ages 22 and over the instances of direct relation of fertility to socio-economic status to fertility of the whites were much more frequent.Z 3/ The tabulations are based upon the 5 per cent samples and the data for nonwhites tend to run thin for cross classifications by multiple indices of socio-economic status. 1005 They are found not only within classes of high socio-economic status but in classes of middle status according to the two control variables. c. Even among women managers at ages 22 and over, however, the cases of lower fertility of nonwhite than of white women (married once and husband present) and the cases of direct relation of fertility to socio-economic status tended to be more frequent in urban than in rural areas and more frequent at the upper than at the low levels of socio- economic status on the basis of the two control variables. d. Part of the reason for the lower fertility of nonwhite than of white women of college attainment is the relatively late age at marriage of this group and especially of those reporting four or more years of college. Among women of college 1-3 or college 4 status there was actually not much difference by color in median age at marriage. However, late age at marriage apparently has more impact on nonwhite women than on white women of college attainment. Studies have also in- dicated that among ever-married women of college attainment the higher proportion of broken marriages and the higher proportion of women in the labor force among the nonwhites than of whites helps to account for their lower fertility.4/ 7. Certain characteristics of housing are also closely related to the nature of the fertility differential by color. The 1960 Census provided a tabulation of number of children ever born per 1,000 women 35-44 years old, married and husband present, by number of housing units in the structure, by occupation group and income of the husband, by color, and by whether or not the housing unit in which they lived had all of a given list of "characteristics." These characteristics were "direct access, kitchen or cooking equipment, sound or deteriorating condition, flush toilet and bath for exclusive use, hot piped water, and less than 1.01 persons per room." Among women in urbanized areas reporting all these amenities, the average number of children ever born tended to be lower for nonwhites than for whites of similar category with respect to number of housing units in the structure and occupation and income of the husband. Among women reporting that one or more of the list of amenities was lacking, the fertility rate tended to be higher for nonwhites than for whites. The chief exceptions were the lower fertility for nonwhite than for white wives of men of "white collar" occupations and living in single-family houses. a. It is, of course, possible that the relatively low fertility of nonwhite women reporting all the desirable housing characteristics con- sidered arises in part from selective factors. The financial and other 4/ Frank, Myrna and Clyde V. Kiser, Factors Associated with the Low Fertility of Nonwhite Women of College Education. A Paper presented at the meetings of the Population Association of America, held April 29, 1967 in Cincinnati, Ohio. 5/ U.S. Bureau of the Census. 1960 Census of Population, Women By Number of Children Ever Born, Washington, Government Printing Office, 1964, Table 44. 1006 requirements to live in modern houses may be more severe for nonwhites than for whites. This may cause a greater selectivity of families with no children or with few children among the nonwhites than among the whites in the homes with all modern facilities. 8. In closing it may be well to point out that most of the 1950- 1960 decade was one of generally rising fertility. This is attested to by the generally higher fertility rates in 1960 than in 1950. The changes in patterns of fertility differentials were results of variations by class in rates of increase over the decade. However, declines in the crude birth rate and general fertility rate in the United States have been under way since about 1957. These appear to be due in part to a cessation of the previous trend toward younger age at marriage. However, there are also some suggestions that trends toward smaller completed families may have begun and that these newer trends are attributable in part at least to the new contraceptive measures, the pill and the intra-uterine device, and perhaps especially the former. To get a good assessment of the recent trends of fertility differentials we must await results of the 1970 Census. Table 1. 1007 Relative variation of cumulative fertility rates by educational attainment of women 20-44 years old, by age, color, and marital status: (Base rate for each age group = 100) Urban areas of the United States, 1950 and 1960. White Nonwhite Age and years of Total Women | Ever-married women Total Women | Ever-married women school completed 1960 | 1950 1960 | 1950 1960 | 1950 1960 | 1950 20-24 College: 4 or more 27 27 36 39 23 23 34 43 1-3 38 42 61 66 35 45 55 68 High School: 4 85 80 82 83 68 72 71 80 1-3 145 143 123 119 114 114 105 105 None or elementary 146 157 134 136 120 116 114 109 25-29 College: 4 or more 55 58 63 69 36 41 43 50 1-3 81 78 85 82 63 61 66 69 High school: 4 94 89 92 89 79 76 78 77 1-3 116 118 111 111 108 109 104 106 None or elementary 118 128 119 125 112 112 112 110 30-34 College: 4 or more 77 74 85 84 49 52 52 58 1-3 92 86 94 88 74 71 74 72 High school: 4 94 91 94 91 80 78 81 79 1-3 105 109 102 105 103 107 100 106 None or elementary 112 1x7 112 115 108 107 108 106 35-39 College: 4 or more 83 72 91 86 55 Sl 58 73 1-3 93 85 93 87 74 66 73 77 High school: 4 93 86 92 87 82 77 81 91 1-3 101 104 99 101 100 97 99 113 None or elementary 111 119 111 117 106 108 106 101 40-44 College: 4 or more 81 64 90 76 57 53 59 56 1-3 90 79 90 81 76 64 77 65 High school: 4 90 81 89 83 82 79 82 79 1-3 102 103 99 99 100 103 99 102 None or elementary 111 122 110 119 104 105 105 105 Source: Computed from U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1960 Census of Population, Women by Number of Children Ever Born, PC(2)-3A, Table 25; 1950 Census of Population, Fertility, P-E, No. 5C, Table 22; and Grabill, Kiser, and Whelpton, The Fertility of American Women, Table 93. 1008 "Increasing Population and Ceylon's Food Problems” &. Vamathevan Economist-Statistician, Water Resources Board, Ceylon. The present estimated population of Ceylon is about 11,250,000 as against the 1963 census figure of 10,590,000. Except for three count- ries in the E.C.A.F.E, region, viz., Thailand (3.0%), Taiwan (3.4%) and Malaysia (3.1%), it has about the highest rate of population growth. Ceylon's present annual requirement of rice, which is the people's staple food, is in the region of 1,300,000 tons, of which only under 700,000 tons are produced locally and the balance has to be obtained from exporting countries of South-East Asia, In recent times, due to drought and other factors, there has been a fall in rice production in many of these coppiries, and in Ceylon, the local annual production fell by about 200,000 tons(1) in 1965. b. Since there was a fall in the supply of rice imported from abroad, the Government, towards the end of 1966, was left with no other alternative than to reduce the weekly ration of two measures or four pounds of rice per head, issued at subsidized rates, to one measure or two pounds issued free of cost. The immediate reaction was that the price of non-rationed rice, available in the local free market rose, but due to good marketing facilities provided both by the State and the private sector, rice was made available outside the rationing scheme at reasonable prices. In order to avoid any further deterioration of the food situation, and to avoid any famine in the future, it is felt that all possible consideration should be given towards (i) increasing food production; (ii) arresting the rapid population growth, and (iii) introducing changes in food consumptior Habits, etc. 2. Consumption of Rationed Rice It is seen from Appendix Table 2, that the actual consumption of rice issued under the Rationing Scheme which consists chiefly of imported rice, and rice obtained under the Guaranteed Price Scheme (2) (1) Vide appendix table 3, Yield of Paddy 1965. (2) The Government of Ceylon buys from the cultivator paddy at the guaranteed price of Rupees Twelve a bushel, on delivery at the nearest Guaranteed Purchase Scheme depot or mill. 1009 increased further from 371,352 tons in 1950 to 570,083 tons in 1955, registering an increase of 53.3% in consumption. Between 1955 and 1960, the increasing rate dropped to 38.8% and between 1960 - 1965 dropped further down to 18.2%. Between 1950 - 1955, nearly 87% of the total population were provided with rice on ration books issued. This dropped to 72% of the population in 1955, but increased to 85% in 1960 and to nearly 90% in 1965. b. It is rather difficult to explain as to how 371,352 tons of rice issued on the rationing scheme was sufficient for 6.5 million in 1950, whereas in 1955, 570,083 tons, which represents an increase of over 53% was issued to a smaller population of 6.1 millions. Ce. The only inference that can be drawn is that, although the number of people indicated in column 3 were issued with rice books, many may not have taken advantage of this facility to purchase their rice requirements. To this extent there was no acute shortage of rice. However, since 1950 onwards, people have become more conscious of the advantage of the possession of ration books and a greater number have begun to utilize them. This is also reflected in the per-capita con- sumption of rice which rose from 1950 - 1955 (.0568 tons), but has since, remained more or less constant. This table does not account for the actual requirement of rice but only indicates the working of the rationing scheme, to meet the bare requirements of the nation. de The cost of importing rice into Ceylon averaged about Rs.250,000,000 annually between 1956 - 1964. This is certainly a drain on Ceylon's dwindling foreign assets. 3. Padd tivation It is estimated roughly that about 1,273,000 acres are under paddy cultivation, classified under major, minor and rainfed schemes, yielding nearly 700,000 tons of rice annually. All paddy lands are not cultivated every year. Lands in the rainfed areas go under cultivation generally once a year, while lands under the major and minor schemes are double cropped as a rule unless there is scarcity of water or for some other reason. It has been pointed out that large extents of land which are brought under irrigation schemes are partly offset by lands being left uncultivated for various reasons like neglect, breached tanks etc. b. It also takes time to bring new lands under cultivation and also provide irrigation facilities. The cost of clearing, stumping of trees and providing irrigation channels etc., is high. The present plan for phased development irrigable land for the next five years is given Bn Appendix Table I. A total of 310,425 acres of land is to be developed between 1965 - 1970. Of this a total of 237,130 acres will be irrigable land suitable for Paddy cultivation. Acreage under paddy would have increased from 1,308,972 acres in 1966 to 1,509,794 acres in 1970. This represents an increase of 15% 1010 over the 1966 acreage. On the basis of the 1964, (3) rigures available from Appendix Table 3, it can be adduced that nearly 1 acre of asweddumized paddy land gives a net rice yield of nearly 3 ton of rice. Ceylon's present requirement is about 1,300,000 tons, and the present acreage has to be more than doubled, if we are to aim at self sufficiency. This is almost a physical impossibility. Even if land and capital are available readily, time factor is important, and by the time the expected yield is obtained, the population would have increased, and also the requirements of rice. Hence emphasis should also be laid on minos other than extensive cultivation. Dr. Nicholas Kaldor says "What Ceylonese agriculture seems to require is better organisation, better methods of production, not a lot of capital investment". The net rice produced increased from 336,261 tons in 1956 to 662,410 tons in 1964, an increase of 97%. Appendix Graph I shows the gradual rise in production from 1956 to 1964. There was a fall due to floods in 1965. The average yield per acre rose from 29.54 bushels an acre to 38.76 bushels, an increase of 31%. The extent under paddy cultivation increased from 1,117,714 acres to 1,585,349 acres, an increase of nearly 42%. c. It can, therefore, be said that the total net yield of rice in the ten year period has to a great extent been due to more acres being brought under cultivation. This has been facilitated by irrigation made available to the lands asweddumized. The net rice yield increase (31%) has been relatively lower. Greater use of fertilisers, better seeds and methods advocated by scientific agriculture, will no doubt increase the yield per acre and thereby the net production of rice. Between1959 and 1961, it is stated that 81% to 87% of Government's investment in non- export agriculture was actually spent on irrigation, land development and colonization schemes. It is generally accepted that colonization schemes, however, have not accounted for any significant portion of the increase in production. d. It can be seen in Apperdix Table 4 that the extent sown is greater than the total asweddumized land. This is due to double cropping and the percentage of total extent sown to extent asweddumized rose from 1956, except for 1959, 1961 ard 1963. In 1959 the percentage sown showed a decrease possibly because of the heavy floods of 1958. In 1965 percent- age was low because of the drought of 1964. The extent harvested remained constant except for the years 1958 and 1965. (3) 1965 figures have not been used, since, due to the 1964 drought etc. the acreage sown, harvested and yield per acre have been less than the 1964 figures. (4) Nicholas Kaldor: "Need for Productivity in Agriculture". Papers by Visiting Economists, Planning Secretariat, Colombo, Ceylon, p. 12. 1011 Appendix Table 3 also gives the seed paddy requirements. Between 1956 and 1965, the seed paddy requirements increased by 30%, whereas the acreage sown increased from 1,117,714 to 1,585,198 or nearly 42%. f. The seed paddy requirement is 2.4 (4) bushels of paddy to an acre of land. The evolution of the H,, a locally produced hybrid, with yield potential of 160 bushels per acre is bound to go a long way in increasing the total output of rice in the country. One of the chief drawbacks in Ceylon's agriculture is the lack of proper organisation in the distribution of good quality seeds to the farmers. It is hoped that this will soon be corrected and quality paddy seed made available to the cultivator in time. Cultivators snould also be taught modern methods of agriculture - the importance of fertilizers etc. Emphasis should be made on obtaining optimum yield on the available irrigable land rather than on extensive cultivation, which needs, besides other things, machinery etc. for development purposes. ge Appendix Graph II depicts the extent sown and harvested from 1956 onwards. In 1958, there was a wide difference between the acreage sown and acreage harvested (143,000 acres). In 1962, the difference was only 44,000 acres and in 1964 51,000 acres. This can be explained by the fact that the heavy floods of 1958 may have washed away the areas sown with paddy. The drought conditions of 1964 may have been rartly responsible for the drying up of crops due to lack of rainfall or water from irrigation works, 4. The Population Problem Ceylon has an area of 25,332 acres with the density of population of nearly 419 persons per square mile at the 1963 census as against 320 per square mile in 1953 and 231 per square mile in 1946. Japan (659) and Taiwan (790) are two countries which exceed Ceylon. Density in some of the E.C.A.F.E.countries are as follows:- India (376), Pakistan (259), Malaya (149) and Burma (82). A rapid growth of population is bound to increase the pressure of population on land and create further problems of land, food and employment. Urbanisation up Hu now has not caused any crises in Ceylon. As stated by Ashish Bose , "Considering the total size of population of India, Pakistan and Ceylon, the volume of internal migration is small.” This applies to Ceylon even up to the time of the 1963 census. From Appendix Table 5, it can be seen that the composition of urban population changed from 14.18% in 1921 to 18.87 in 1963. Even this increase in trend can be explained, since more town council areas were added to the urban areas in 1963. During 1946 - 53 urbanvard migration to hy with populations of 30,000 and above showed only about 39,000 persons ), Vast tracts of agricultural holdings remain neglected and uncultivated due to absentee land-lordism, etc. (4) This is the normal practice in Ceylon. 1 ton of paddy is equivalent to 48 bushels. The ratio of rice to husk in paddy by weight is 60 : 40 (approximately). 1012 It is felt that though density of population per sq. mile would increase, the density of the total agricultural holdings including uncultivated lands may not change. Between 1921 - 1931 there was an increase in the rural population from 85.82 to 86.86% and in 1946, there was a decrease as people were drawn into urban areas on account of the war effort. Between 1946 - 53, the ratio was more or less stagnant, and between 1953 and 1963, the ratio again decreased, presumably because of Government's policy of industrialisation. From these figures it would be safe to assume that no rapid change in the composition of the rural - urban population is likely to occur in the near future. 5. Future Population Appendix Tables 6A and 6B give two sets of projections for period up to the year 1985. a. Department of Census and Statistics, Ceylon. i. Fertility. It is assumed that by 2003 A.D, fertility will decrease as follows:- (a) High: Decline to 80% of its 1962 value. (b) Medium: Decline to 65% of its 1962 value. (ce) Low: Decline to 334% of its 1962 value by 1976, and 50% of its 1962 value by 2003 A.D. ii. Mortality. It is assumed that expectation of life for both sexes will reach 70, by 2003 A.D. iii. Migration. No allowance has been made for possible emigration of persons under the Indo-Ceylon Srimavo-Shastri Fact (1964). b. National Planning Department, Ceylon (S. Selveratnan). i. Fertility. The assumptions made are as follows: (a) High: Constant from 1956 - 1961. (b) Medium: Constant from 1956 - 1961, and subsequent 5% decline every quinquennium. (c) Low: Constant from 1956 - 1961 and thereafter 10% decline every quinquennium. ii. Mortality: Orderly curve decline along exponetial curve of 1956 age specific Death rate for all projections till 1981. iii. Migration: Nil. (5) Dr. Ashish Bose: INTERNAL MIGRATION IN INDIA, PAKISTAN AND CEYLON. U.N. World Population Conference, Belgrade, Yugoslavia. 30th August to 10th September 1965. Para 1, Page 1. (6) Vamatheven, S. SOME ASPECTS OF INTERNAL MIGRATION IN CEYION. World Population Conference, Belgrade, Yugoslavia. 30th August - 10th September 1965. Page 2. 1013 c. Family planning is currently an essential activity of the Ceylon Health Department, which has fixed targets for Birth Control. Fertility assumptions made so far are liable for changes. Birth rate however it is hoped will not maintain the present abnormal high level. Mortality can be assumed to remain almost constant. Both projections cited however indicate that population may continue to increase rapidly for years to come. d. Apperdix Table 7 shows future requirements of rice. The require- ment for 1970 will be double today's local production in Ceylon of about 700,000 tons. Between 1970 and 1975, an anticipated population increase of 1,700,000 persons will require an additional 200,000 tons over the 1970 requirements. e. Between 1975 - 1980 an anticipated increase of 1,900,000 persons will require additional 220,000 tons. Similarly between 1980 - 1985 an increase of nearly 2,000,000 persons will require additional 230,000 tons. 6. Conclusion. It may be useful to state two other effects of increasing population (7) on the economy of Ceylon. (i) Depressing the growth of investment, and retarding the rate of economic expansion, (ii) Adverse effect on the distribution of investments, with less emphasis on productive spheres, in order to meet the consumption needs of the people. (7) 10 Year Plan. National Planning Council. Planning Secretariat, Ceylon 1958. Page 15. TABLE 1 1014 APPENDIX . Phased Development of Land 1 2 3 4 5 Year Developme Net Subsidiary Total Irrigable| Irrigable Crops Development Acres Acres Non-Irrigable Including Acres Non-Irrigable Âcres_ 1966 36,308 1,308,972 12,767 49,075 1967 44,530 1,353,502 14,160 58,690 1968 58,148 1,411,650 16,048 74,196 1969 56,207 1,467,857 19,028 75,235 1970. 41,937 1,509,794 11,292 53,229 $5 Years | 237,130 73,295 310,425 SOURCE: Ministry of Planning and Economic Affairs, Ceylon. Plan of o try o € Poy 6 « 8th August, 1966. TABLE 2. al Co tion of Rat ic 14 2 3 4 5 6 Year Actual | Adequate Total Actual Increase pdr- Consumption| for Population [Consumption over cen Rationed | Persons Persons | per head previous| tage Rice (Tons) period of (Tons) person avail- ing e 950 1 371,352 6,519,000] 7,504,0 0.0568 = 86.87 1955 | 570,083 6,140,000| 8,550,009 0,0928 53,3 71,21 1960 | 791,335 8,522,070) 10,063,000 0,0928 38,8 8 1965 | 935,535 110,074,992| 11,300,000) 0,0929 18,2 89,16 Source: Administration Report of the Commissiomer of Food 1966. 1015 TABLE 3. All Island Paddy and Rice Statistics Too Extent Sown| Extent Net Total AT | Asveddumi (Acres) | Harvested | Average Acreage | Output (Acres) (Acres) |Yield Harve Paddy (Bushels (Bushels) : Statistical Abstract of Ceylon, Department of Census and Statistics, 1965. 3. (Continued) 8 9 10 11 Year Net Output Net Seed Padd Net Rice Paddy (Tons) (Bushels) (Tons) 1016 TABLE 4. Paddy Sown to extent asweddumized and to extent harvested. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Year (1000) (1000) (1000) Extent Extent Extent Sow. as Extent Harvested Asweddumized | Sown Percentage Harvested| as Percent- Acres Acres of Extent Acres tage of Asweddumized Extent Sown 1956 1,071 1,118 104,31 1,052 94.13 1957 1,093 1,200 109,70 1,138 94.89 1958 1,098 1,382 125.84 1,239 89.65 1959 1,113 1,330 119.51 1,228 92,32 1960 1,160 1,468 126.58 1,393 94,85 1961 1,180 1,472 124, 74 1,407 95.57 1262 1,197 1,536 128,30 1,492 97.16 1963 1,230 1,562 126,93 1,505 96.38 1964 1,249 1,585 126.90 1,535 96.81 1965 1,273 1,455 114.35 1,243 85,38 SOURCE: Statistical Abstract of Ceylon. Department of Census and Statistics 1965 and unpublished report, Department of Census and Statistics, 1966. TABLE 5. Urban a 1 2 Year Total Population a: Includes new Town Council areas. SOURCE: t Rural Po 3 Urban (Thousands) ation (Ce 4 Rural (Thousands) C n Provisional Figures. Urban 5 Percentage Rural 1017 TABLE 6. Population Projection, Ceylon. A (1,000) Y SOURCE: A. Population Projection for Ceylon 1963 — A,D. Depart- ment of Census and Statistics RASE ER B. Selveratnam, S. Population Projections of Ceylon 1956-1981. The Ten Year Plan, National Planning Council. Planning Secretariat. Page 14, (1959) TABLE 7. Future Rice Requirements 1 2 3 4 5 Year Expected Expected Increase | Percentage Population Rice Tons Increase (1000) Requirements (1000) Tons (1000) 1970... 13,000 1,500 - = 1975 144700 1,700 — 200 13 1980 16,600 1,920 220 13 1985 18,600 2,150 230 12 SQURCE: Population Projection for on Average of Low and Medium Projections on. Department of Census and Statistics (Unpublished). 1018 $00 000 - GRAPH Î NET RICE PRODUCTION. 1956 -4 + MILLION ACRES "1 Y 1956 1957 1938 1999. 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965. YEARS. GRAPH li EXTENT SOWN AND HARVESTED. 1987 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1965 1964 1965. YEARS. 1019 THE RECENT DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE ECLA REGION (Similarities and differences as compared with the ECAFE Region) Dr. Andris Klinger 1. By the middle of 1967 the population of Latin America 1/ will presumably reach 260 millions and will constitute a little over 8 per cent of the world population. This population is relatively very small in comparison with the ECAFE region's 1,850 millions, or 59 per cent of the world population; however, an analysis of the development of the ECLA region population indicates a very considerable demographic growth, which aiffers not only from that of the ECAFE region, but from the development of all the other continents. 2. Until the beginning of the 19th century, the population of Latin America represented less than 2 per cent of the world's population. This percentage increased to 4 per cent at the beginning of this century and during the last sixty-six years reached a little over 8 per cent. During the last century the relative size of the population of the ECAFE region barely increased; it totalled 55 per cent of the world figure ir 1900 and is now, .59 per cent. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and not necessarily the views of the United Nations. 1/ The term "Latin America" is used here to mean the territorial region of the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America (ECLA). Latin America, as defined here, has somewhat wider limits than the twenty Spanish, Portuguese and French-speaking American republics which constitute Latin America in a strict sense. The term "Latin America" includes all American countries and territories, with the exception of North America (Bermuda, Canada, Greenland, St. Pierre and Miquelon and the United States). 1020 3. Latin America's relatively very high population increase reflects the highest absolute population increase of any region, The number of inhabit ants of the region is now four times as great as in 1900, while both the population of the world and that of the ECAFE Region have only doubled since the beginning of the century, The rate of population increase accelerated during the period following the Second World War, The decennial rate of population increase was more than 30 per cent between 1950 and 1960 - helf as much as before 1940, Between 1940 and 1960 the world population increased by 700 millions with Latin America accounting for 12 per cent, while the regional population rose from 6 to 7 per cent of the world's popu- lation, The percentage was 11 per cent between 1900 and 1920 and 9 per cent between 1920 and 1940, Le If we analyse the population increase of Latin America by sub-regions,2/ we find considerable differences between them, During the last sixty-six years "tropical" South America's population increased by 350 per cent, "temperate" South America's by 300 per cent, the Caribbean's by 283 per cent and Middle America's (Mainland) by 247 per cent. These differences were more substantial during the last sixteen years: while Middle America's popu- lation increased by 69 per cent and "tropical" South America's by 61 per cent, the population growth in the Caribbean was only 35 per cent, while in the "temperate" part of South America, it amounted to 33 per cent, The rate of increase was the same in these two last areas as in the ECAFE Region and about the same as the world average, The decennial rates of increase by sub-regions indicate that during all the decades since 1940 Middle America's rate of increase was the highest (e.g, during 1950 and 1960: 35 per cent), However, the highest increase took place between 1920 and 1930 in temperate South America (because of the relatively high immigration), After that period this sub-region exhibited the lowest rate of increase together with the Caribbean (during the last decade: 22 per cent), The most populous sub- region, tropical South America, showed its highest decennial rate of increase during 1930 and 1940; after 1940 it was only a little less than in Middle America (during 1950 and 1960: 34 per cent). y The same sub-regions are used here as in the United Nations Demo- graphic Yearbook, 1965, The composition of these sub-regions is as follows: Tropical South America: Bolivia, Brazil, Guyana, Colombia, Ecuador, French Guiana, Peru, Surinam, Venezuela. Middle America (Mainland): British Honduras, Canal Zone, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama. Temperate South America: Argentina, Chile, Falkland Islands, Paraguay, Uruguay. Caribbean: Antigua, Bahamas, Barbados, Cayman, Cuba, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Granada, Guadaloupe, Haiti, Jamaica, Martinique, Montserrat, Netherlands Antilles, Puerto Rico, St, Kitts-Nevis-Anguilla, St. meras St. Vincent, Trinidad and Tob Turks and Caicos Islands, Virgin Islands (UK) and Virgin Islands (US; 1021 5. On the basis of the rate of population increase during the decade 1950-1960 the individual Latin American countries 3/ may be classified in three main groups: (a) Countries with high rate of increase (more than 35 per cent): Venezuela, Costa Rica, Mexico, Panama, Dominican Republic and Brazil; (b) Countries with relatively moderate rate of increase (between 25 and 35 per cent): Guatemala, Trinidad and Tobago, British Honduras, Ecuador, Nicaragua, Colombia, Surinam, Guyana, Honduras, El Salvador, Perû and Chile; (c) Countries with low rate of increase (less than 25 per cent): Bolivia, Haiti, Cuba, Paraguay, Argentina, Jamaica, Uruguay and Puerto Rico. Naturally, the rate of increase conceals the real differences between birth and death rates, but these differences present a colourful panorama of today's demographic situation. They are all the more interesting if we compare them with the decade 1920-1930. At that time it was also possible to distinguish three groups of the Latin American countries on the basis of population increase, Both the number and identity of the countries comprising these groups were different, (e.g. group (a), with the highest rate of increase - more than 20 per cent even at that time - included Argentina, because of its high imigration, Cuba and Paraguay; these three countries now form part of group (c) with the lowest rate of increase. 6. The picture of Latin America's demographic development would be more interesting if we could investigate its two main components: the changes and differences in the birth and death rates. According to estimates for the last five years (1960-1964), the annual average birth rate of Latin America reached 41 per thousand = which was 20 per cent higher than the world average (34 per thousand) and 8 per cent higher than the annual average rate in the ECAFE region. In the world only the birth rate for Africa (47 per thousand) exceeded that of Latin America. The differences between Latin America and the other developing regions are much greater in respect of mortality rates. Latin America's estimated crude death rate was 11 per thousand during the period 1960- 1964, which represented only two-thirds of the world average (16 per thousand), 45 per cent less than in the ECAFE region and 52 per cent more favourable than in África. This crude death rate is only slightly higher than Europe's (10 per thousand) or North America's (9 per thousand). This comparison is based exclusively on data for the independent Latin American countries, 1022 These differences show us the real cause of Latin America's high rate of population increase: the continent has a relatively very high fertility with a relatively low mortality. This means that Latin America is in the most developed phase of the "second demographic revolution", that is, the death rate has decreased to a very low level (which could be improved further because of the region's relatively very young population) and fertility rate has remained stationary at a very high level, Te On the basis of a few uncertain estimates of the development of the region's fertility, it can be stated that the general fertility level has remained virtually unchanged during the last 30-35 years. It shows only a very small decrease: the crude birth rate, which was estimated for 1930-34 and 1950-54, at 43 per thousand, was 41 per thousand during 1960 and 1964. This decrease was caused principally by the fertility situation of the Temperate South America sub-region: here = where the fertility level was always the lowest = from 1930-34 until 1960-64 - the birth rate fell by 13 per cent, which is also very insignificent in comparison with the European situation. During the last five years = as during the other two periods - the highest birth rate was estimated for Middle America (45 per thousand) and Tropical South America (43 per thousand), these rates being about two thirds higher then in Temperate South America. The fertility level of Middle America itself reflects a relatively high birth rate, as compared with other developing sub-regions, and it is surpassed only by Eastern and Western Africa (52 and 47 per thousand, respectively) and by Polynesia and Micronesia (48 per thousand), Temperate South America's fertility is still relatively high in comparison with the developed regions (Europe 19, Japan 17, Northern America 23, USSR 23 per thousand respectively) Fertility emong the individual countries also varies very widely. During 1960-64 the crude birth rate of the independent Latin American countries varied from 23-25 per thousand (Uruguay and Argentina) to 47-49 per thousand (Nicaragua, El Salvador, Ecuador, Venezuela, Haiti and Guatemala). There is a relatively lower fertility in Barbados and Puerto Rico (31 per thousand) and in Chile and Cuba (35 per thousand), In the other countries the crude birth rates range between 40 and 46 per thousand. During the last 30-35 years only three countries showed a larger decrease in the fertility rate - all of them in the group with relatively low birth rate. Puerto Rico's fertility decreased by 25 per cent and Argentina's and Chile's by 15-17 per cent respectively. In all other countries the crude birth rate remained practically unchanged, 1023 8. The changes in mortality rates were much more revolutionary during the most recent period, During 1960-64 Latin America's average crude death rate was 50 per cent lower than the mortality estimated for the period 1930-34. In the period 1950-54 the death rate decreased by one-third (from 16 per thousand to 11 per thousand. The improvement was not uniform in all sub- regions: those with the highest mortality showed the most drastic decreases, Thus in Middle America mortality improved to two-fifths of what it had been in 1930-34 (from 27 to 12 per thousand) whereas in Temperate South America - which had always had the lowest mortality - it improved only by 38 per cent. This development brought about an equalization in the mortality of the region: in three sub-regions the crude death rate is 12 per thousand and only Temperate South America has a somewhat lower mortality (10 per thousand). During 1930-34 the mortality differences were much higher: Middle America's death rate was two-thirds higher than that of Temperate South America. Only three of the Latin American countries maintain the previous very high mortality level: Haiti, Bolivia and Guatemala, where the present mortality rate is about 20 per thousand. There is also a relatively high death rate (16-14 per thousand) in five other countries (Honduras, EL Salvador, Nicaragua, Dominican Republic and Ecuador). The lowest mortality has been achieved in Trinidad and Puerto Rico (7-8 per thousand) and in Argentina, Uruguay, Costa Rica, Cuba, Barbados and Jamaica (9 per thousand). The other countries have a mortality ranging between 10 and 13 per thousand. During the last 30-35 years the decrease in mortality was not uniform in all the countries of the region. The mortality of those countries which have now the highest rate showed a slight improvement. However, there are countries where the death rate during 1960-64 was only one-third of that for 1930 and 1934 (Mexico, Costa Rica, Barbados, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago and Puerto Rico). 9. Summarizing the recent demographic development of Latin America, it should be noted that this part of the world shows a very special demographic pattern. Due to the very rapid and substantial decrease in mortality and a relatively high stabilized level of natality, Latin America now has the highest rate of population increase in the world. 10. What will be the future of Latin America's population? We do not know exactly, and can only estimate on the basis of recent population projections 1024 made by the United Nations Population Division.4/ If we accept the relatively more certain "medium" variant, the population of the region vill be 378 millions in 1980 (three-fourths larger than in 1960) and 638 millions in 2000 (three times larger than in 1960). But it we accept the highest variant (the so-called "constant fertility, no migration projection") Latin America's population will reach 756 millions by the end of the century, which means a 250 per cent increase in forty years, The relative dimensions of the region's population (in comparison with the world population) will increase from 7 per cent (based upon the 'mediun'" varient) in 1960 to 9 per cent in 1980 and to 10 per cent in the year 2000, Only the demographers of the 2lst century can answer the question whether that will be the future development of the population of Latin America, 4/ Based on the United Nations publication: World Population Prospects as assessed in 1963; Population Studies, N° 41, New York, 1966, Sources of data and estimates used: Demographic Yearbook 1965, United Nations, New York, 1966. Population and Vital Statistics Report, Statistical Papers, Series 4, Vol, XIX, N° 1, United Nations, New York, 1967. Statistical Bulletin for Latin America, Vol. IV, N° 1, Economic Commission for Latin America, Santiago, 1967. 1025 Table 1 POPULATION OF IATIN AMERICA, 1750-1966 (In millions) Per cent of Year Population would total 1750 13 1.8 1800 19 2.1 1850 33 2.8 1900 62 3.8 1920 90 4.8 1930 108 5e2 1940 130 5.7 1950 163 6.5 1960 213 7.1 1966 253 7.7 Table 2 POPULATION OF IATIN AMERICA EY SUB-REGIONS, 1900-1966 (In millions) . Tropical $ Temperate Year e == South ue South Caribbean eres America America 1900 62 30 17 9 6 1920 90 46 19 15 10 1930 108 55 22 19 12 1940 130 67 27 22 1 1950 163 84 35 27 17 1960 213 113 47 33 20 1966 253 135 59 36 23 DECENNIAL RATES OF INCREASE OF POPULATION IN 1026 Table 3 LATIN AMERICA BY SUB-REGIONS, 1920-1960 (Per cent increase of population during ten-year periods) . Latin Tropical Middle Temperate : _ Period America South America America South America Caribbean 1920-1930 20 19 16 27 20 1930-1940 21 23 20 18 20 1940-1950 25 26 29 20 20 1950-1960 31 34 35 22 22 Table 4 ESTIMATED CRUDE BIRTH AND DEATH RATES IN IATIN AMERICA BY SUB-REGIONS (0/00) . Birth rates Death rates Areso 1930-34 1950-5. 1960-61 1930-34 1950-5, — 1960-61 Tropical South America 45 43 43 22 17 12 Middle America 47 46 45 27 17 12 Temperate South America 31 28 27 16 11 10 Caribbean 42 40 40 21 16 12 Latin America 43 42 41 22 16 11 1027 Table 5 POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR LATIN AMERICA (1960-2 000) Projection 1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 A. Estimated decennial rates of increase of ation (per cent Medium 33 34 32 28 High 33 35 36 32 Low 33 29 23 20 Constant fertility, no migration 34 36 39 41 Projection 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 B. Population estimates (in millions) Medium 213 283 378 1498 638 High 213 283 383 521 686 Low 213 282 362 44,6 532 Constant fertility, no migration 213 281 387 537 756 1028 RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN VITAL STATISTICS IN INDIA. R.B. LAL Assistant Registrar General, Office of the Registrar General, India New Delhi HISTORICAL BACKGROUND Registration records are, by and large, the basic source of data on births and deaths in India. The history of registra- tion of vital events in the country dates back to the sixties of the last century. In the initial stages only deaths began to be registered. The Sanitary Commissioner to the Government of India, who was responsible for the administration of Public Health in the country, obtained the information on " deaths by causes " from the Provincial Sanitary Commissioners. The information was possible to collect only for well-known conditions like Cholera, Smallpox, various types of fevers and bowel complaints. This information was collected according to religion. Accurate date by age was not available. 2. Registration of births was introduced first on an experimental basis in one of the provinces in 1866. It was then extended to the other provinces administered directly by the crown representative. The Bengal Births and Deaths Registration Act of 1873 was the first enactment which came into force in Bengal and was later extended to the neighbouring States of Bihar and Orissa, 3. An important landmark in the development of vital statistics was the report of the Indian Famine Commission of 1880, which emphasised the importance of collection of correct vital statistics throughout British India, The important recommendations of the Famine Commission included the extension, on a compulsory basis, of the registration of births and deaths throughout the rural and urban areas, the monthly publication of vital statistics, any excess or deficiency of data to be made the subject of a 1029 special report and the like, 4, Even as far back as 1885, prosecutions were launched in one of the provinces for negligence to report births and deaths. This shows the importance the authorities attached to registration. In 1886, the then Government of India placed on the statute book a measure called the Births, Deaths and Marriages Registration Act, to provide for the voluntary registration of births and deaths throughout the country. This Act had a very limited application and remained a dead letter in so far as the mass of the people was concerned, Registration was, however, carried on routinely in the urban areas under municipal bye-laws and in the rural areas on the strength of executive orders and instructions given to the village officials under the revenue codes and police manuals. The position in 1903 with regard to the extension of registration of births and deaths was fairly good as will be clear from table 1 annexed which shows the percentage of population covered in the various provinces at that time. 5. By 1903 about 80% of the census population of India (British India and Princely States ) came under the registration system, The quality of data was, however, not quite as satis- factory ). The emphasis throughout had been on the collection of information on deaths and the important causes of death, particularly for the purpose of controlling the endemicity and spread of epidemic diseases. Several Commissions like the Royal Commission on Agriculture, 1924 and the Royal Commission on Labour, 1928, made important recommendations towards improving the quality and coverage of vital statistics and as a result certain important steps were taken in this direction, specially in the urban areas where the municipal bye-laws included the provision for registration and compilation of birth and death statistics. In the rural areas too, improvements were effected. 6. It is sad to report, however, that the progress achieved was largely dissipated during the emergency of World War II, when the whole Government machinery was geared to the all-out war effort. At the end of the War, the system of registration and compilation of vital statistics was left highly battered. This was observed and commented upon by various committees which met soon after the end of hostilities. The Health Survey and Development Committee which met in 1946 deplored the state of affairs in this field and made several recommendations for 1030 resuscitating the system of collection of vital statistics in the country. CHANGE IN EMPHASIS 2 As already observed in para 5, vital statistics were collected in the past largely with a view to controlling pestilence and disease and not so much for studying population trends, Whatever information on growth of population was required, was obtained from the census data. The census Actuaries appointed at the time of the various decennial censuses almost from the very beginning of the census history in India, have done yeoman service in analysing the census data and providing useful material on natality, mortality and growth of population from one decade to another. This information, however, proved to be somewhat deficient particularly when the growth of population acquired greater momentum and did not behave in the expected manner. This happend after 1921, notably during the fifties of this century, ( as shown in table 2 annexed ) when the greatést need was felt for correct information on growth of population for formulation of economic policy and planning. In the last decade ( 1251 onwards ) the growth of population turned out to be over 2% per annum as against 1.3% in the previous decade. The growth rate of 1.3% per year assumed for the Second Five-Year-Plan based on the 1951 census data thus went far off the mark and attention was focussed on organising proper statistical information needed for planning. It began to be realised that vital statistics which had so long been the charge of the Sanitary Commissioner and, thereafter, of the Director General of Health Services, should be the concern of the official organisation responsible for the census and population problems in general. In 1960, such statistics were, therefore, made part of the Office of the Registrar General, India - the organisation dealing with census of human population. IMPROVEMENT PROGRAMMES: 8. The history of vital statistics from this point has been a history of hectic activity and concerted attempts towards quickly reorganising the system of registration and vital statistics. The Planning Commission, naturally, gave vigorous support to the Registrar General's Schemes for improvement of the system of registration and collection of vital statistics throughout the country. With the active and willing cooperation of the constituent 1031 States which under the Constitution shared equally the responsibility for vital statistics, 1t became possible, in the course of a few years, to set up a machinery for running the system on sound lines. A good many impediments to quick progress towards a re liable system of registration in the country still remain, but the experience of the several advanced countries strengthens the hope that though there is still a long way to go, a good system can be built up in course of time. A central enactment has been drafted to make it obligatory on the part of the people to report and register a vital event. The proposed enactment will also make for uniformity and standardisation of forms, methods and procedures throughout the country. 9. Training of personnel engaged in the collection and compilation of vital records and statistics at various levels, from the periphery to the apex, is another aspect on which attention is required to be devoted. This is beginning to be organised as a matter of urgency and is expected to yield dividends soon. 10. Another improvement towards which work has been initiated, is the setting up of a centralised system of mechanical compilation of vital statistics at the State level, 11. It is realised that although a good start has been made, there still remains a long way to go towards the goal. In order to fill the immediate gap, short-term measures for providing information on population trends have been devised. A scheme of collection of birth and death data with the help of sampling techniques has been worked out. The scheme takes advantage of both the retrospective survey technique and the system of continuous registration, and has been modelled somewhat on the lines = the technique of sample vital registration commended by Hauser2/- It is still in the preliminary stages but the results so far have been encouraging ( Table 3 Annexed ). 12, A scheme to supplement and support the normal system of registration of births and deaths, called the Scheme of Model Registration of vital events is being tried out in a few areas. It envisages the collection of information on births and deaths according to cause, with the help of qualified personnel ( para- medical ) located in the Primary Health Centres which are scattered throughout the length and breadth of the country. The 27. Hauser Philip: The use of sampling for Vital Registration and Vital Statistics ,Bulletin of Ene 8.520. , Vol. 11, 0.1-2,1954. 1032 scheme is expected to give somewhat better data on births and deaths and may serve as a model for other areas. OUTLOOK FOR THE FUTURE 13. As discussed in earlier paragraphs, the infra-structure ¥equired for establishing a sound system of registration and vital statistics is being raised with notable speed after a slow start, which was inherent in all such large undertakings which require the joint effort and collaboration of a number of constituent units, Organisation of a good system of book keeping at the lowest level located at the source of raw data, namely, the village and urban block or ward and the timely flow of returns to the top, for purposes of processing and analysis, present the greatest hurdles calling for great effort and constant attention. There are different systems? obtaining to-day in the different areas. A good deal of experimentation for setting up a proper system of inspection and supervision is needed. The outlook for the future is bright provided at the same time efforts are not slackened towards keeping the system going at a high level of efficiency. This would be possible only by keeping a constant watch over the whole machinery, as well as through the growing use to which vital records and data are put by the people, the planner and the public administrator. 42 Government of India, Ministry of Health: Review of the Registration System of Births and Deaths in India, Manager of Publications, Delhi, 1959. 1033 ANNEXURE Table 1. Percentage of population covered under registration in 1903. Provinces Percentage Bengal 99.6 Assam 90.3 Inited Provinces of Agra & Oudh 100 Punjab 89.5 Central Provinces and Berar 98.9 Madras 97.7 Coorg 100 Bombay 99.8 Ajmer-Merwara 100 Source: Government of India, Ministry of Health: Review of the Registration System of Births and Deaths in India, page 17, published by Manager of Publications, Delhi 1959. 1034 Table 2, Decennial Population Increases, India, 1901-1961. Census Percent Change from Preceding Census 1901 - 0.2 1911 + 5,7 1931 +11.0 1941 +14,2 1951 +13.3 1961 +21.5 Source: Census of India - Paper No. 1 of 1962 Part C, Table 2. Manager of Publication, elhi, Table 3, Birth and Death Rates with Half Yearly Survey. States Period Birth Rate Full Scale Stage: Kerala July 1965 - June 1966 37.9 Gujarat Oct. 1965 - Sep. 1966 43.6 Maharashtra July 1965 - June 1966 36.0 Pilot Stage: MP. May 1966 - Nov. 1966 51,0 Rajasthan Nov. 1965 - Apr. 1966 38.5 U.P. May 1966-Nov. 1966 46.4 Source: Registrar General, India, New Delhi Provisional Statistics Sample Registration Bulletin, Vol. 5 May 1967 Death Rate 10.1 18,4 16.0 26.2 13.4 28.0 1035 Factors of Labour Mobility in an Advanced Technological Society by Stanislaus Borowski, Poznan School of Economics, Poland. 1. Following the technological progress, the mobility of the labour force develops and becomes an ever more complex phenomenon. In an advanced technological society labour mobility should be forecasted and controlled by appropriate policies.There- fore, mobility has to be broken down into operative categories in order to enable us to investigate its factors, essence and results. Generally, we may define labour mobility as inflow of persons into the labour force, their outflow and cross-flows between groups of labour force created on the base of various criteria. According to these criteria we shall distinguish between different types of mobility of which the following are most important: 1) inter-employer mobility, 2) migrational mobility, 3) "less-more-skilled" work mobility, 4) professional mobility, 5) social mobility. In the first two types the problem of space is involved in a hidden or in an express way. Therefore, we must take account of the inter-employers mobility and the migrational one to horizontal or regional types. In the further three types we take into account either the social benefits or the consequent participation in national income only, or the consequent social esteem merely. Because of that we usually treat the last three types as vertical types of labour mobility or social ones in a very broad sense. For each type of mobility we can distinguish four elements: Inflow of persons into the labour force as a whole and into its particular groups as well as out- flow of persons constitute the two least compount elements. During the inflow and the outflow we can also observe an exchange of persons between the part of popula- tion which does not constitute the actual labour force and does not work yet, the part which constitute the actual labour force and works , as well as the part which is retired temporally or for ever from the labour force, and also an exchange of persons between particular groups of the labour force or groups of employees. This exchange means the more compound element of labour mobility and may be either simply called the exchange of persons or the fluctuation of labour force or the man- power turnover. As a consequence of manpower turnover, the labour force as a whole or the total employment, or their particular groups only, show a positive or nega- tive numerical increase. The manpower turnover and the increase of the labour force constitute the more compound and barometric elements of mobility. We will concentrate our attention on these elements. Thanks to the distinction of the elements we are able to describe and to measure the volume and intensity of each type of mobility per time and space units with the help of statistical means. For this purpose we should define exactly the mentioned units as well as the criteria of classification of labour force. 1036 For each type of labour mobility, the division of labour force or of the employees into the mobile and immobile parts is of great importance. As a rule we are more interested in the mobile one. This part only, or both, are classi- fied according to criteria of economic, social and demographic character. IH each set we usually find criteria which are common for every type of mobility and also criteria appropriate for one or some types only. The level of qualifi- cation and wage rate, for instance, are the most important criteria of economic character, common for all the types of mobility. Similarly sex, age and family status are common demographic criteria. Distance is also an appropriate criterion for horizontal types. 1 Economic, social and demographic criteria of classifi- cation of labour force have to facilitate the examination of various influences upon mobility and simultaneously can be factors of labour mobility, 2. The factors of labour mobility are defined as causes or determinants of the mobility. The introductory description of the factors suggests a division of these between innate characteristics of persons on one side and factors deter- mining outward labour mobility, on the other. For simplicity we will define then as internal and external factors respectively. The internal factors are either in-born characteristics of persons being units of the labour force or acquired ones. Some of the in-born characteristics, e.g. sex or race do not change at all during a human lifetime or change to an extent only which is not significant for labour mobility. Some others, the age for instance, undergo very important changes. The acquired characteristics, how- ever - for example qualification, profession, family status, social group -, change not only in the long run, but also in the short run, during a human life. These changes are usually the greater and faster, the higher level of the technological progress. The acquired characteristics as factors either restrain or stimulate the mobility of labour force or cut out some special patterns for it. Similarly, the external factors may be divided between natural ones and those being effects of human activity. Among the natural, there are factors which are invariant with respect to time e.g. sunshinefrequency, and also changeable in the long run, for instance, surroundings providing recreation possibilities. The latters as well as factors being effects of humen activities usually change in intermediate and short run the more and the faster, the higher is the level of technological progress. There is a lot of factors affecting labour mobility, more than we are able to examine and more than it would be necessery to investigate. Therefore, for further research and practical purposes, we have used the following criteria in choosing factors: 1) significance of impact, 2) economic, social or demographic character, 3) degree of dependancy. on technological progress, 4) susceptibility of state's policy and 5) feasibility in planning. Let us discuss how these criteria may be applied to the types of labour mobility mentioned above. 1037 3. In the inter-employer labour mobility we may distinct the following elements: employment of new workers, job termination, manpower turnover and the increase in employment. These elements can be aggregated according to economical activities or divisions of economy as well as for every regional unit. Applying the known criteria for choosing factors some of them we have found and verified as the best ones. Education, measured in years of schooling is negatively correlated with man- power turnover. There exists also a similar correlation between the manpower turn- over and the years of stay at the same employer which are symptomatic for the level of qualification as well as for psychological ties between workers and em- ployers. The negative correlation between turnover and wages is the closer the lower are tle values of the factors mentioned previously. At last, manpower turn- over is negatively related to number of persons supported by workers, and posi- tively to the distance between the work-place and worker's home (cf table 1). All the mentioned factors explain volume and intensity of manpower turnover almost entirely (cf table 2). Education, years of work and wages are always posi- tively intercorrelated, i.e. the more closely, the lower the average level of education. Therefore, it is far easier to replace the factors of education and of years of work by wages in the case of labourers! mobility than in the case of mind workers'. Such a substitution is very often necessary if we try to investi- gate the labour mobility in aggregates of employers created according to criteria of space or economic activity. In this situation the regression of manpower turn- over on wages provides us information throwing light on the labour market repres- ented by the aggregate under research. These data may especially shed light on the equilibrium between 25 pour demand and supply, the frictional unemployment as well as underemployment. 2 4, Emigration, immigration, migrational turnover and net migration constitute the elements of migrational mobility. If we would extend the definition of labour force on the total population living in the space under research, then we would find as appropriate the division of population into four groups: the future labour force, the actual, the retired temporally and the retired for ever one. The migra- tional mobility of each of the groups is determined by a set of common and by some separate factors. The following remarks, however, will be limited to the migration- al turnover and the net migration of those groups as a whole. Using the five cri- teria mentioned above, we have chosen and empirically verified factors affecting both the elements of migration. We will characterise these factors briefly. The increase in investment outlays for fixed assets, in new flats and in wages is negatively correlated with the migrational turnover and positively with the net migration (cf table 3). The significance of new flats as a factor increases more and more. In the countries of a permanent shortage of flats the possibility of finding one at all is a strong incentive to migration of homeless people; in the countries with relatively big stocks of flats the higher standard of new ones plays the role of an important incentive. In the majority of factors not only the changes relative to the level at the 1038 beginning of time period under examination, but also the changes relative to the ‘level of the same factors in neighbouring as well as in farther regions, cause migrational movements. It mainly concerns the wages, the national product or in- come and unemployment as factors of migrational mobility. If work is available in regions under research the regional product or income, whether produced or divided, per capita or per square kilometer, is negatively correlated with migrational turnover and positively with net migration. This re- lationship is the closer the more perfect is the social development i.e. if econom- ic growth and the welfare of population converge in the country. If these diverge the role of national product or income as a factor of migrational mobility will not appear. If job is not available in regions of high rate of GIP or income per capita or per square kilometer the positive correlation for net immigration into the regions with GNP or income will not appear. A great interregional extension of GIP or income causes a rather high average and a large extension of migrational turn- over. If there are sufficient work-places in the regions, we may dso observe a large extent of net migration coeffidents. (c.f. table 6). Different forms of unemployment, including underemployment in regions, are posi- tively correlated with migrational turnover end negatively with net migration. In the conditions of full employment the value of the factor of unemployment evidently decreases. There arises, however, the problem of underemployment and remains the problem of frictional unemployment, which both may be scientifically approached by analyses of inter-employer mobility. The increase of work-places and of pupil capacity at schools above primary level is positively correlated with manpower turnover as. well as net migration. Depending on the age structure of population in region under research and in surrounding ones, the percentage of teenagers either is an insignificant factor of migrational mobili- ty or stimulates migrational turnover and hampers net migration. The family-creating-factor, i.e. the appearance of new two generation families, which may be substituted by marriage frequency, remains still significant in an ad- vanced technological society. As a rule, this factor does not affect the migrational turnover at all, but stimulates, however, net migration to a relatively high extent (cf table 3). The family-creating-factor means that the frequency of new families is not only an effect of a corresponding net migration process but also a cause of further immigration of persons in marriage age, especially of females, as well as of immigration of young couples' parents. The influence of the said factor upon the im- migration of persons of marriageable age is the more significant, tle more differen- tiated is a society in social, cultural and religious aspect. The significance of influence upon the immigration of parentsdecreases in dependence on the possibilities of young mothers to leave professional work and in dependancy of increase of welfare as well as social security for children &d retired persons. The spatial distance, traditionally considered as a restraint of migrational move- ment and positively correlated with it, plays an ever smaller and smaller role as mobility factor in conditions of transportation deveopment. In a migrational movement between numerous spatial units, distance has no importance as an explanatory factor ‘for migrational turnover. 1039 The degree of urbanisation, the number and dispersion of military bases and of recreation places which are positively correlated with migrational turnover as well as with net migration, and race or religious prejudice negatively cor- related with the net migration, .all these factors describe also migrational movements. They correspond to the first criterion for choosing factors but not to the following ones. The factors discussed here explain almost cotgiesei ie elements of migra- tional mobility(cf table 4). 5. Similarly for the horizontal types of labour mobility, we can distinguish within the "less-more-skilled" work mobility the inflow of persons into the labour force as a whole or into particular groups, the outflow, the manpower turn- over as well as positive or negative increase in groups of labour force, created on the base of skillness, These elements can be aggregated according to economic activities, divisions of national economy as well as according to the spatial units. The main methodological problem involved here, is the measurement of skillness and the classification of labour force on the base of this criterion. Because of a great diversity of skill, some uniformed, abstract measures similar to the metrical ones, should be elaborated. There would still remain many questions of qualitative character. Our remarks will be limited to groups of skillness based on criterion of time of schooling and of professional practice. Using again the same criteria for choosing factors we have distinguished and empirically verified ones affecting the manpower turnover between skillness and the numerical increase in skillness groups. These facors were already discussed and are the following: increase in gross investment outlays for fixed assets, new vork-places, median wages and pupil capacity at schools above primary level and at training,retraining institutions. All the factors are positively correlated with manpower turnover as well as with the numerical increase in ever higher skilled group. The total set of these factors explains the said turnover and in- crease almost entirely. The dependency of "less-more-skilled" work mobility and its factors on the level of technological progress is very evident. 6. Inflow of persons into the total labour force and its particular groups, out flow, turnover and positive resp. negative increase in groups based on criteria of subjective or objective profession, constitute the elements of professional mobility. Professional group created with the help of subjective criterion usual- ly consits of several professions. Classifying according this criterion one has to meet a good deal of difficulties of logical, practical and termcharacter when discriminating between professions. Furthermore, at this classifidation we may see that the groups created according to subjective profession overlap those based on the criterion of skillness. Very often groups representing a higher de- gree of skillness become separate professional groups. From the theoretical and practical point of view it is very important to follow two principles, namely that professional groups have to be created on the base of division of labour and 1040 the groups of skillness, however, on the base of abilities acquired by schooling and practice. Skillness groups should be always created within the professional groups. We may also extend the definitión of professional group on all professions re- presented at one employer. Thus we would approach the classification according to objective profession. We can aggregate the employers in activity groups and in divisions of economy. In this situation the labour mobility between the objective professions, represented by employers and their aggregates covert the inter-em- ployer’ mobility and the migrational one to a high degree. Therefore, the seme factors of horizontal mobility, increase of flats for instance, become also fac- tors of mobility between professions based on objective criterion. If we would classify the labour force exactly according to subjective profes- sions, at most of the employers and in the aggregates of employers, we would dis- tinguish numerous professional groups. Professions according to subjective crite- rion and according to objective one overlap each other. This phenomenon is of great importance for professional mobility. While the movement of rersons between the professional groups based on subjective criterion usually ‘requires some additional education, the mobility between professions based on the objective criterion very often is free from this limitation. Our former remarks concerning the relationships between groups created on the base of skillness and on the base of subjective profession permit us to hynothe- size that each type of mobility is affected by the same factors. Indeed, common determinants of both the types of mobility are logically substantiated and may be easily verified from empirical data. 7. Inflow of persons into particular social groups, outflow, cross-flows or turn- over and numerical increase in groups constitute the main elements of social mobility, Investigations of this type of mobility may be either extended on the total population divided into the future labour force, the actual, retired tempor- ally as well as retired for ever one, or limited to hired workers only. lostly, we use three criteria for cre Ang goeiel grata: in A combination of objective/ profesSiorsas vell as of position/profession, ner- sonal income or wages and at last the common esteem. Besides the difficulties of logical, practical and term discrimination of groups on the base of the first and the third criterion we always use the second criterion in a hidden wey. The use of personal income or wages as a classification criterion facilitatesa il separation of groups. But at the same tine income and wages being factors of four types of mobility discussed previously, become a scale of changes of the fifth type. Using anyone of the three criteria we shall always find that the social mobi- lity is dependent on the "less-more-skilled" work mobility end on the profession- al one to a high degree and indirectly also dependent on the horizontal types of mobility. Therefore, the factors of "less-more-skilled" work mobility and of professional mobility are also significant for social mobility. These factors es a whole explain almost completely the manpower turnover and the numerical in- 1041 crease as elements of the social mobility.” If we apply them as variables we may describe the social mobility, similarly to the other types of mobility, with the help of regression analysis. 8. We have already stressed many interrelations between the types of labour mobility. Two kinds of interrelations are of greater importance. The criteria of creating groups of labour force contain some similar components: for instance, space in horizontal types and profession in vertical types of mobility. Some mo- bility factors are common for all the types, the others for two or three, In the particular types we have considered the same elements and used, as far as-possi- ble, equal measures of mobility as well as of its factors. As a result we are able to describe the elements of every further type of mobility, by elements of the foregoing types (cf table 5). In this way elements of social mobility as function of appropriate elements of other mobility types become the barometric ones of total mobility. We can use them as variables in research work on other aspects of social and demografic development as well as on economic growth. The following tables provide us some fragments of empirical verification of factors under discussion. 1) Cf. Some other proposals of classification and terminology: Lipet S.N. and Bendix R., Social Mobility in Industrial Society, Heinemann (1959). Smith J.H., Labour Mobility in Advanced Technological Societies, Employment Problems of Automation and Advanced Technology: An International Perspec- tive, Macmillan & Co. London, New York (1966). 2) Cf. Long Y., Labour Turnover under Full Employment, University of Birming- ham (1951). Also a regional case study: Borowski S., Wsp&faleznodé struk- tury prac i ruchu sity roboczej, Roczniki Ekonomiczne, XIX, Poznan (1967). 3) Blanco,C. The Determinants of Regional Factor Mobility, Pasmans, Den Haag (1962) .Borowski S. Determinandy regionalnych typdw ruchu sity roboczej, Rocz- niki Ekonomiczne , XX, Poznan (1967). Somermeijer W.H. Een analyse van de bin- nenlandse migratie in Nederland tot 1947 en van 1948-1957, Statistische en econometrische onderzoekingen 3 (1961). 4) Cf. Manpower Report of the President, US Government Printing Office, March (1964). Borowski S. Die Bewegung der landwirtschaftlichen Bev&1kerung als Faktor der Arbeitskraftverteilune in der polnischen Volkswirtschaft, Erstes Internationales Demogrphisches Symposium, Leipzig 1966. Tekse K. On Some Interrelationships between Occupational Mobility and Migration to Budapest, W.P.C., Belgrade 1965 and other related bibliographical positions. 1042 "Table 1" Zero Order Correlation Coefficients for Manpower Turnover at Municipal Sloughter Houses (M.S.H.) in Gdynia (Poland) in 1951-1955 Average Wages Years of Coefficient Level of Distance Number of of Manpower [for last 3 Work at |Education [between MSH [Persons Sup- Factors [Turnover Months before MSH in Years offland Vaker's [ported by Leaving MSH Schooling |Home Worker Y, Y, is Ya I Y Y —0,634 x x x 1, -0.811 +0.492 x x x x Y 0.474 +0.613 +0.380 x x x I, +0.493 -0.234 -0.432 0.512 x x Ye 0.512 +0.193 +0.101 -0.093 +0.116 x Source: Primary Documentation of Municipal Sloughter Houses in Gdynia. "Table 2" Multiple Correlation Coefficients for Nanpower Turnover at H.S,H.f Hunicival Sloughter Houses/in Gdynia, in 1951-1955 Symbols Values of Coefficients R 1.23 0.854 R 4.234 0.857 E 4.2345 5,367 R 0.969 1.23456 1043 "Table 3" Zero Order Correlation Coefficients for Migrational Turnover, Total Immigration and Net Migration per Voivodships, in Poland, in 1960-1965 Migrational Total Immi- Net Migration, |lNet Migration. | Gross Invest- 4 |Turnover, All (gration, All |All Age Groups|of Population, |ment Outlays 5 Age Groups, as |Age Groups Ages 20-60 for Fixed As- S |Percent of Years sets per 1000 5 i ) @ | Average Popu- Population 4 lation . 17 1 2 34 2 x, -.238 +.499 +565 +755 x xg -.751 +.174 +.518 +.515 +.579 x, -.450 -.064 +.342 +.363 +.299 xs +115 +434 +.662 +.708 +.404 Xe +.296 +.553 +.667 +.698 +.701 x, +.261 +164 -.100 -.088 -.040 5 -.078 +.226 +.579 +.612 +. 666 Continued "Table 3" New Rooms | Changes in Increase of| Increase of |Percentage|Family- per 10000 | Regional Work-Places| Pupil Capaci-|of Persons|Creating- 5 Population Wages Rela- | per 1000 ty at Schools| Ages 15-19] Factor Ss tive to a) Population | above Primary |Years (Marriages 5 National a) Level per 1000 per 1000 Median Wages) Population Population) xg x, x, xg x, xg x, x x x x x = xg x x x x x x x, +.021 x x x x x *5 +.236 +.169 x x x x x, +.238 +.193 +.733 x x x x -.033 -.259 +.045 +.256 x x xg +.141 +330 +.301 +.500 -.542 x a) In the socialized econony only. Source: Zmiany miejsca zamieszkania w latach 1960-1965, GUS, Warszawa, NakXady inwestycyjne wedtug powiatow 1960-1965, GUS, Warszawa 1966. Rocznik Statystyczny 1964 i 1966, GUS, Warszawa. 1044 "Table 4" Multiple Correlation Coefficients for Migrational Turnover, Total Immigration and Net Migration per Voivodships in Poland, in 1960-1965. Migrational Total Net Migration,|Net Migration of Symbols Turnover, All | Immigration,All] All Age Groups| Population,Ages Age Groups Age Groups 20-60 Years 17 171 2 3 Ro -0.238 0.499 0.565 0.755 Ros 0.734 0.509 0.616 0.761 Ry 254 0.816 0.574 0.663 0.772 Ry 0345 0.836 0.640 0.818 0.891 Ry 23456 0.893 0.650 0.830 0.952 Ry 234567 0.916 0.653 0.866 0.959 Ry 0325673 0.996 0.710 0.947 0.993 Source: See Table 3. "Table 5" Zero Order Correlation Coefficients for the Elements of Interemployer Mobility in the Socialized Economy with the Elements of Migration Mobility, All Ages,2/ in Poland, in 1965. The Correlated Variables otal Migration per Voivodships Migration be- tween Voivod- Migration within Voivodships only ships only 1. Employment of New Workers and Immigration + 0.772 + 0.672 + 0.386 2. Job Termination and Emigration + 0.583 + 0.596 + 0.282 De. Manpower Turnover between Employers and Migrational Turnover + 0.607 + 0.599 + 0.282 4. Increase of Employment and Net Migration + 0.431 + 0.431 x a) The coefficients are much higher for ages 20-60. Source: Primary documentation at Statistical Central Office, Department for Labour Statistics, Warszawa. Zmiany miejsca zamieszkania w latach 1964-1965, GUS, Warszawa. 1045 "Table 6" Migrational Turnover as well as Net Migration Related to Gross National Product (or Personal Income) and Individual Consumption in Regions lligrational Turnover, Net Migration and Related Vari- ables Average Level in the Nation Extreme Levels in Regions Min, - Max. Standard Deviation Zero Order Migrational Turnover Correla- Coefficients{tion for Net Mi- gration in Recions Netherlands 1.Ifigrational Turnover as Percent of Average Popula- tion in 1960-1965 2.Net Migration as Percent of Average Population in 1960-1965 3.National Product and In- dividual Consumption in Provinces as Percent of National Level in 1960 a)Gross Domestic Product: Per Capita Per km? b)Gross Domestic Productin Agriculture, Industry, Mining, Construction and Transportation; Per Capita per km c)Gross Domestic Product in Industry, Mining and Construction: Per Capi ta Per ka“ d) Individual Consumption: Per Capita Poland 1. Migrational Turnover as Percent of Average Popula- tion in 1960-1965 2. Net Migration as Percent of Average Population in 1960-1965 100.0 00 4.2 100.0 100.0 100.0 3.6 3.8— 5.1 -0.5+ 0.3 82.3-112.9 28,4-31 1 .0 78.8-109.9 38.5=3T1.5 70.5-119.6 26.9-290.8 85.3-1 1 4.6 2.3— Tel =0.4+ 0.5 0.5 0.2 1.5 0.3 (to be continued) -0.772 -0.788 -0.714 -0.269 -0.698 -0.514 -0.350 -0.519 -0.470 -0.264 -0.503 -0.126 —0. 289 -0.438 1046 Continued "Table 6" Mjgrational Turnover, Net [Average] Extreme Zero Order |Correla- Migration and Related Vari- |Level |Levels in [Standard Coefficients| tion for ables in the |Regions Deviation |iigrational {Net Mi- Nation |Min. - Max. Turnover gration inflesions 3.National Product and In- dividual Consumption in Voivodships as Percent of National Level in 1961 a)Gross National Product: Per Capita 100.0 | 65.5-138.0 18.7 -0.544 +0.752 Per km 100.0 | 30.2-502.9 | 107.2 -0.356 +0.706 b) Gross National Product in Industry: Per Capita 100.0 | 30.7-209.3 47.1 -0.506 +0.656 Per km 100.0 |12.7-763.0 | 171.8 -0.357 +0.684 c)Individual Consumption: Per Capita 100.0 | 80.1-193.4 25.7 +0.116 +0,344 Lite States of America 1.Net Migration as Percent of Average Population in 1950-1960 x k2,24+4.18 1.4 x x 2.Personal Income in States as Percent of National Level in 1955: Per Capita 100.0 | 54.0-136.0 21.5 x +0.333 Source: Statistiek van de binnenlandse migratie 1960-1963, C.B.S. Den Haag. Maandstatistiek van bevolking en volksgezondheid 1966, C.B.S. Den Haag. Enkele gegevens uit de Regionale Rekeningen 1960, C.B.S. Den Laag. Zmiany miejsea zamieszkania w Latach 1960-1965, GUS, Warszawa. City end Regional Planning in Poland, New York, 1966. Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1966. 1047 POPULATION CHANGES AND ECONOMIC GROWTH by Eva Garzouzi Assistant Professor of Economics Ithaca College ie The interaction of population growth and economic growth on each other is a phenomenon which has often puzzled demographers and rendered their task of pinning down which of the two is the cause and which the effect, more difficult. Particularly misleading is the fact that, in some cases, the same causes produce different results under relatively similar circumstances. One such example is the time honoured belief that a change in the structure of a country's economy - through its evolution from being predominantly agrarian to becoming industrialized, leads, according to historical evidence, to a decline in the rate of population growth. This belief which is based mainly on the experience of the industrialized nations of Western Europe during the 19th century, is not always vindicated in modern times. Conseguently, in the search for the ever elusive evidence concerning this subject, any empirical information gains importance. 2. The purpose of this paper is to study very briefly the interaction of the various factors which have contributed to - or resulted from - the rapid economic growth of the Southeastern part of the United States during the two decades which followed the end of World War II. Although this region cannot be con- sidered underdeveloped by world standards, it was comparatively so in relation to the rest of the country. 3e The area under study, the Southeast, here includes the states of Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississipi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia’ + It accounts for about 17 per cent of the land area of the United States of America and just under twenty per cent of its population. 1/ All data given was compiled from the sources mentioned at the end of this paper. 1048 4, At the beginning of the post-war period, demand was high for United States production of both consumers goods and capital goods: the reason was that to the backlog of domestic demarid were added the reconstruction needs of America's former war allies as well as some of its foes. The accelerated exp- ansion in production and capital investment caused businessmen in the Northeast to look for new sourees of capital and labour and they were attracted by the advantages offered by the South: a relatively cheap labout force, a vast water supply, wooded forests, and some mineral deposits. Population Changes Se Since the middle of the 1940's the population of the Southeast has increased at a steadily higher annual average rate. The biggest jump was during the decade of the 1950's when the yearly average rate of increase was 1.6 per cent, compared with 1.2 per cent during the 1940's and 1.9 per cent during the 1960's. Comparative yearly average growth rates for the nation as a whole were 1.5 per cent during the 1940's, 1.9 per cent during the 1950's and l.6 per cent during the 1960's. 6. The rates for the Southeast reflect natural population increases as well as the effects of both in- and out-migration, The latter, which was motivated by economic opportunities, accentuated the differences in rates of population changes between the various states under study. One state in the group, Florida, had such a high rate of in-migration, that it offset the migration out of some of the other states. It was also the state which has had a higher rate of population increase than that of the national average. 7. By 1960 the pattern of age-group distribution in the Southeast drew closer to that“the nation. There was a marked increase in the non-productive age-groups as compared to total population, while the proportion in the groups between 30 and 60 years of age remained the same. The increase in the former age-groups was the result of the combination of two factors: the high birti rate and the increase in life expectancy. The proportion of persons over 25 years of age who had completed one or more years of high school jumped by 58 per cent, or more than twice the rate of population increase. aspect 8. The most conspicuous/in these population changes was the shift from rural to urban living and occupations. The shift was reflected in the movement of young workers away from the farms 2 this refers to the years 1961 to 1965 inclusive, i.e. it is roughly a five-year average. 2/ 1049 and a consequent higher median age, especially among white farm workers. There was also an increase of about 50 per cent in the urban population of the Southeast during the period under review, as compared with a national average incr- ease in urban population of about 30 per cent. The shift from rural to urban living seems to have made itself felt in 1952, the year which marked the transition of the Southeast from an agrarian economy to an industrialized one. Changes in Income and Employment 9. The most spectacular change was:yet to be witnessed in per capita personal income which during the decade of the 1940's alone rose by 200 per cent, or a yearly average of-20 per cent in the Southeast, compared with a rate of 15.1 per cent during that decade for the nation as a whole. Yeariy average rates of increase in the Southeast were of 5.8 per cent during the 1950's and 6 per cent during the fifist five years of the 1960's as compared with rates of 4,8 per cent and 4,6 per cent respectively for the nation. 10. The average per capita personal income in the states of the Southeast is still below the national average by about 30 per cent. However, its rapid increase is gradually brid- ging the gap between the two: during the decade of the 1930's it was only 50 per cent of the national average. Moreover, income has: been increasing at a rate which is more than three times that of population growth. Whether this trend will be sustained depends on several factors, the most important being the steady expansion in production, 11. As regards employment, the exodus from rural areass was accompanied by an increase in non-farm employment at an annual average rate of 4.6 per cent during the 1940's, 3.1 per cent during the 1950's and 3.7 per cent during the 1960's. In each case the increase was: about one third higher than the national rate. Only part of the increase was accounted for by job opportunities provided by the manufacturing industries. Cons- truction, transportation, public utilities and the services sector offered the major part of employment opportunities. This was the economic and social overhead capital formation which is a necessary corollary to economic growth. 12. Finally, greater government spending in this part of the country contributed to job creation and absorbed a sizable proportion of the labour force. The spending was on activities which varied from health and welfare services, to large military bases and space-age instalations. All these various types of non-farm employment were conducive to the growth of a large number of cities in the Southeast. 1050 Conclusion 13. Reviewing briefly the facts given in the foregoing pages, we seecthat in the particular case under study a series of changes in population and income seem to have been sparked by economic expansion. The latter which, at least at the beginning, was part of general conditions in the country, was a factor which was exogenous to population growth. However, as the level of per capita income increased - and it will be noted that the increase in income was prior to the growth in population - changes in both income and population seem to have reacted upon each other. 14. Eventually, population changes seem to have reflected first, the adjustments resulting from the shift in employment in agriculture to manufacturing and services, and, secondly, the higher standard of living brought about by the consequent changes in income. However, the surprising fact is that these inter- acting changes have led to an increase in the rate of population growth, rather than the expected decrease. References 1. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Essays on Southern Economic Growth, Atlanta, Georgia, 1961 2. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Population Change and Economic Change in the Southeast, Atlanta, Georgia, 1963 3. U.S. Department of Commerce, Survey of Current Business, 1966, Washington, D.C. 4, U.S. Census: Bureau, United States Census, Washington, D.C. 1051 This paper was received too late to be printed in the Session to which it refers. It should therefore be read in conjunction with Session IV. Evaluating the Australian Training of Asian Students Daphne M. Keats University of Newcastle, N.S.W. 1. This paper reports on a research study now being undertaken for the Research School of Pacific Studies, Australian National University, which aims at evaluating the effectiveness of the training of former overseas students by studying their experiences since returning to their home countries, As the analysis is still in the early stages no conclusions are drawn although some tentative early results are given. However, it may be of interest to examine more thoroughly the implications of foreign study as a social phenomenon and to look at some of the social and educational problems which a research project of this kind attempts to examine. 2. This exodus of thousands of young Asians to study abroad is a recent development which has been increasing rapidly as Asian countries face problems of supplying an urgent demand for more and more trained professional people to serve their rapidly increasing populations with 20th century technology. This need has been created by changing factors in the pattern of South East Asian society. 3. There has been a drift from the rural villages to urban living, with its attendant needs like public transport, market supplies of food and consumer goods, telephone, T.V., radio and other mass communication systems, and more particularly the concentration in the cities of the development and application of advanced scientific knowledge to industry, public health and medicine, applications which change both urban and rural living. In turn rural policies are affected by these changes, as subsistence farming gives way to cash cropping and co-operative marketing ventures and more efficient agricultural techniques are developed to meet the greater demands placed on food supplies for the cities. And when rural dwellers drift to the cities not only scientific and economic problems must be faced but the social uprooting of peoples brings its own need for those skilled in dealing with new kinds of psychological problems that did not before exist. Thus there arises a demand not only for the skilled engineers to build the roads and the large public works or the new factories or power installations but for the doctors to deal with the higher incidence of diseases which arise when high density living is a necessity to carry out preventive public 1052 health programmes, and for the architects and social scientists who are needed to guide the greater numbers of people into planned growth rather than an uncontrolled urban explosion. To educate sufficient skilled professional people to meet these needs from local resources is an impossible task for most Asian countries. Vast sums are required for development of the basic educational structure and for most South East Asian countries even the implementation of compulsory education for all is still a practical impossibility. Departing colonial powers have left behind not only a dearth of skilled local professional people, but also an absence of skilled top level administrators since these positions were formerly held by ex-patriates, and in some cases still are even after several years of independence. 4. The Asian scholar is now a familiar and welcome figure in Australian campuses. ‘Asian scholars in Australia have rapidly increased in numbers since the first scholars arrived in Australia in the late 1940's and early 1950's and shows no sign at present of any levelling off in demand. Although the Colombo Plan scheme is probably the most widely known, nevertheless by far the greater numbers of all students are private students (see tables 1 and 2 appended). As the fees paid by students account for only about 20% of the total cost for tertiary education for each student this means that for every place taken by a private overseas student Australian Governments contribute a substantial subsidy. It is difficult to estimate the amount of public money expended on overseas students in this way, but it is certainly considerable. In his study of overseas students in Victorian technical colleges, Walter estimated an approximate amount of $618,000 in 1959, $824,000 in 1963 and $750,000 in 1965 to provide place¢ in technical institutes in Victoria alone (1). The range of courses open to private students is as wide as their entrance qualifications allow although in some university faculties with quotas on their entrance numbers there may be limited places available. 5. The Colombo Plan agreement provides training in a very wide range of courses according to the expressed needs of the countries concerned. The range of courses which Colombo Plan students have undertaken in Australia extends over more than 30 different fields in a great range of levels from special trade certificate courses, teachers college, agricultural and technical diploma courses, undergraduate and postgraduate, industry, public service administration, postgraduate medicine and surgery and atomic energy, to give but a few examples. Where set courses are not available special 'ad hoc' programmes may be arranged whereby the scholar or visiting fellow spends short periods of observation or advanced research training with organisations like CSIRO, Commonwealth Serum Laboratories, or practical experience with B.H.P. and other big industrial undertakings, and so on. The duration of such courses may vary from a few weeks to up to ten years according to the needs of the individual or the government concerned. 1053 6. Study abroad is but one way by which urgent national needs are being filled, but it is also an important means by which Asians can learn professional skills and at the same time widen their own cultural horizons. Countries involved in receiving these students see it as a two-way process by which also their own image is favourably projected, but it is likely that this image suffers considerable distortion if the experience of study in that country was unsuccessful, or full of difficulties, if on return home the skills learned abroad are not put to effective use or the financial rewards are not seen to be - commensurate with the training received. 7. There is some evidence to support the view that overseas study may produce an educated but alienated and dissatisfied elite, e.g. as reported by Shils (2,3,4), and other writers have also been concerned with difficulties of adjustment on return home [Murase (5), Useem (6)]. Until recently there has been little done systematically to discover whether this is the case with Asians who return from study in Australia, although ‘there is an increasing concern by the Australian Government and by Australian educators that the training in Australia should be of maximum value. There is at times a clash of interests in that Australian universities and colleges do not arrange special individualised programmes for overseas students and are insistent that Asian students meet the same academic standards as Australian recipients of their degrees. This view would undoubtedly have the support of most Asians who would not welcome a change that could be interpreted as a 'drop in standards' on their behalf. Nevertheless the cultural orientation of course work in the foreign country must necessarily produce a cultural dissonance in the student's thinking, which must be resolved in the re~adjustment required on his return home. Quite often he will have learned techniques which have little direct application in his home environment, and he may find that equipment and processes (such as the use of computers and reliable statistical resources) which he has learned to take for granted are not available or are irrelevant in the social setting. His training coull be judged effective if it enabled the former student to adopt principles but adapt and develop techniques to suit new situations and if difficulties are seen as challenges rather than frustrations. 8. The principal concern of the research study reported in the present paper was to try to evaluate the effects of overseas training in terms of meeting local needs by examining the post-study vocational experiences of the graduates. Questions were framed in terms of the following criteria: a. Relevance of Training i. Did individuals go back to the jobs for which they were directly prepared by their training? ii. Do they actually now find the skills which they learned in the Australian training institution relevant to their present work? be Ce. a Ce 1054 iii. Are they working in the field originally selected, and if not, why did they leave and what has been the effect of making the change? Use of Technology i. Are they able to obtain and use technical equipment or skilled technical assistance required to carry out their jobs in the ways they have been trained? ii. If not, what effect has this on their work experience? Do they improvise or revert to previous, or local, custom? iii, Are they encouraged or frustrated in putting new techniques, equipment or ideas into use? Professional and Job Advancement i. Do overseas trained persons receive greater, equal or fewer opportunities for advancement than do locally trained persons? ii. Is there difficulty in obtaining recognition of Australian certificates, diplomas or professional affiliations? Interpersonal Relations i. Do overseas trained persons have difficulty in working with locally trained persons? ii. Do they feel that they encounter prejudice against them or acceptance and enhanced status? iii. Do they think that overseas training is perceived by others in the community in general to be of value? Fulfilment of National Needs i. Is the present occupation of the overseas trained person one which could be considered to be of importance to the development of his country? ii. Do national and personal goals coincide? iii. Are job satisfactions and attitudes to the training received related to perceptions of the relative national status of Australia and the home country? Time Since Return To what extent is the effect of training an immediate or delayed effect? Does initial enthusiasm soon abate or do more opportunities to make use of the training arise with greater experience and possibly greater authority? 1055 9. Two research methods were used. A questionnaire was devised and was mailed to the total sample of former students, and this was followed up with interviews with a representative sub-sample in each country. The questionnaire covered ten principal themes under which subsidiary questions were grouped. These were:- a. Background, courses of training, changes of courses, etc. (Qu. I & III). b. Employment record since returning from Australia, under which was considered the drift from the field of training, diversion into private from government employment and the extent to which the Australian training was put into use (Qu. II). c. Use and availability of technical equipment and assistance (Qu. IV). d. Recognition given to Australian qualifications in regard to appointment, salary and promotion, and the relative pull of qualifications obtained either in the home country or in other countries abroad (Qu. V & VII). e. The diffusion of learned skills, i.e. the extent to which the knowledge gained was used to train others (Qu. VI). f. The relative amount of time spent on professional versus administrative aspects of the work and the subject's degree of satisfaction with that situation (Qu. VI). g. Satisfaction in interpersonal relations on the job, i.e. whether the subject feels any advantage to or prejudice against those who have studied abroad (Qu. VIII). h. Sense of commitment to national development, i.e. to what extent the subject feels that in his job he makes any contribution towards national needs (Qu. IX). i. Retention of links with Australia, as evidenced in continued personal contacts, use of English and membership of Australian Alumni Associations (Qu. X). j. Degree of satisfaction with the training programme. Finally respondents were asked to give their own opinions as to whether the present schemes could be improved and in what ways and invited to make any general comments which they themselves felt were of particular relevance (Qu. XI & XII). 10. The interview schedule was modelled on the questionnaire, enlarging upon and opening up the same questions. This more intimate approach not only provided many valuable insights into the experiences of former students but enabled many respondents to speak more easily than they could in the more rigidly constructed written questions and answers. In framework the interview allowed for some open ended questions but wherever it was appropriate standard scales were built into the schedule in such a way that responses 1056 could be recorded as the interview proceeded. All interviews were tape recorded for maximum accuracy in interpretation of the responses. 11. a. The great variety in level and type of courses, duration of stay in Australia, and the very large number of contributing source countries made restrictions on the sample necessary to make the task feasible. It was decided to limit the level and types of courses to those of technical college, agricultural college, teachers' college, and all university levels, but to include other organisations which gave recognised training at a postgraduate level, such as CSIRO, hospitals giving post=- graduate training leading to specialised qualifications such as FRACP and FRACS, etc. b. Those who had not completed one academic year were not included. Cc. The sample was further reduced by including only major source countries. There were 15 countries which sent students to Australia under the Colombo Plan. There were also students from several groups of Pacific Islands, many from Fiji and Africa who come to Australia under the Commonwealth Co-operation Scheme. By excluding these and others from countries from which there were only small numbers of students the number of variables was reduced considerably but the numbers only slightly. d. The countries finally included were: Philippines, India, Pakistan, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore. e. The problem of whether to include private and sponsored students was then considered. Despite the very large numbers of private students there were cogent reasons why this study was not able to include them. The necessary personal data on which to base the sampling would have been much more difficult to obtain for the private students, particularly as in earlier years records were not as complete as they are at present and the task of obtaining a reasonably representative sample would have been prohibitive. It was decided therefore to restrict the main study to Colombo Plan and other sponsored students but add a small sample of private students taken from a country such as Malaysia or Hong Kong which sends a large number of such students to Australia and where the research could be most conveniently carried out. It was realised that this could not be considered a control sample, being limited by the availability of cases and the means of access to them which could not be through official records as in the case of the Colombo Plan. A list of 200 names and addresses of members was obtained through the courtesy of the Australian Alumni Association in Hong Kong and the questionnaires sent to all of these, although it was clear that many would not meet the criteria of level and duration. 1057 £. With these restrictions the target sample was reduced to a maximum of about 2000 cases. The next task was to locate addresses for as many of these as possible and to eliminate those cases which did not meet the criteria of level and duration. By these means a total of 1176 names and addresses of former Colombo Plan students was obtained. 12. Over 500 replies to the questionnaire were received from the former Colombo Plan students and 45 from Hong Kong private students who were found to be suitable on the criteria. Over 120 were returned to sender, address unknown, by the postal authorities. Since many of the addresses were 10 to 15 years old, and in view of the inaccessibility of some places, the difficulties of postal deliveries in some areas and the generally high mobility of government personnel in all countries this must be considered a very satisfactory return. In the interview programme 202 formal interviews were conducted, of which 15 were with former private students and 187 with former Colombo Plan students, supplemented by a number of discussions both formal and informal with government officials, Australian representatives and officers of Ex-Students Associations (see table 3 showing totals for each country). 13. This research is still in the early stages of analysis and it will be some time yet before any conclusions can be drawn. Some preliminary results for the Colombo Plan sample are summarised in tables 4, 5 and 6. All figures are in percentages of the totals appearing at the tup of the tables. Although the job history analysis is by no means complete these data would seem to suggest a tendency for most students to return to government jobs in the field of their training for their first employment, after which there appears to be a trend away towards other employers and less direct applications of training. Details for more than two successive jobs have not been shown and it may well be that having a large number of jobs may prove to be an indication of dissatisfaction or drift from the original field. There is considerable variation between countries, and the situation in Indonesia and Ceylon looks least favourable. The data in table 6 would seem to indicate also that in these same countries the degree to which their Australian qualification is given recognition is seen to be less than satisfactory. In these two countries also there are difficulties in obtaining adequate technical support. In this regard, however, the Philippines seems to show an extreme lack, not so much of equipment as of skilled supporting staff. 14, Finally, what are the implications for educational policy and planning? Our research poses more questions rather than supplies answers. For example, for how long must the dependence on other countries need to continue? Can any universities in South East Asia afford restrictive entrance policies when the qualified but rejected would-be entrant must then look overseas for further education? Tháéreis more than a possibility 1058 of producing a culturally alienated elite of marginal men who cannot effectively transfer the technical know-how they have learned abroad to their own people. If the overseas graduate can not use his professional skills to the full, or is dissatisfied with the recognition given to his qualifications, the home country is not getting the full measure of return from the cost of losing a potential member of the workforce for what could be several of his most productive years. Our research may yet bring out a favourable picture, but if on the other hand it appears to highlight discrepancies between the actual and the ideal we would like to feel that their recognition is but a first step to their resolution. References 1. Walter, M.R. The numbers, entrance standards and performance of overseas students in technical institutions in Australia with particular attention to Victoria. Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology, September 1965. 2. Shils, E. Indian students. Rather Sadhus than Philistines. Encounter, 1961. 3. Shils, E. Political development in the new states. London, 1962. 4. Shils, E. The intellectual between tradition and modernity. The Indian situation. Comparative studies in society and history, Supplement No. 1, 1961. 5. Murase, K. International students in education for social work. An assessment by international graduates of schools of social work in North America 1948-57. Social Service Review, Vol. 35, No. 2, June 1961. Adapted from doctoral dissertation, N.Y. School of Social Work, Columbia University, 1961. 1059 Table 1 Training of Colombo Plan Scholars in Australia - up to June 30, 1966 Country Expenditure No. of Country Expenditure No. of $A1000's Trainees $A1000's Trainees Afghanistan 46.8 23 Malaysia* 5903.3 1454 Brunei 77.4 24 Maldives 3.0 4 Burma 1331.9 453 Nepal 191.1 46 Cambodía 166.1 46 Pakistan 1582.5 488 Ceylon 898.5 354 Philippines 1156.8 469 Indía 1900.9 751 Singapore 1549.3 392 Indonesia 4468.5 1040 Thailand 1811.5 502 Korta 341.0 165 Víet Nam 1163.2 242 Laos 235.1 83 — Total 22826.9 6536 * excluding Singapore before separation. Source. Dept. of Ext. Affairs, Australia's Aid to Developing Countries to 30-6-66. Table 2 Privately Financed Overseas Students in Australia as at March 31, 1965 N.S.W. Vic, Qld. W.A. Tas. A.C.T. N.T. Total 4692 3502 885 1034 204 133 19 11045 Source. Dept. of Ext. Affairs. Quoted in M.A. Hodgkin, Australian Training for Asian Living, p.8. Table 3 Interviews in South East Asia. Nov. 1966 to Jan, 1967 Ex Colombo Plan Ex Private Formal & Informal Country Students Students Official Discussions Total Philippines 20 - 3 2 25 India 2 = 1 - 3 Pakistan 10 - 4 3 17 Ceylon, 4 - 1 1 6 Thailand 22 - 2 - 24 Indonesia 54 - 4 1 59 W. Malaysia 33 2 6 4 45 Sabah 16 1 = 3 20 Sarawak 9 - 1 1 11 Singapore 17 1 3 - 21 Hong Kong - 11 2 2 16 Totals 187 15 27 18 247 ALL 65 114 90 35 29 37 520 1060 Table 4 35 34 28 Phil. Ind. Pak. Cey. Thai. Indon. Mal. Sabah Sar. Sing. 53 Employment Histories and Use of Trainin FSS DONNA ANSLNANONARNANERANA . . eo . .* . eo o. . . À . eo se * . .» es . mun oO nn I~ a ON Quen O NORN on Ina a ama o A ama - = TT SN oo o - ~~ NNO NS e At . . . . . PIN . . +... .. os OOOOOOGSNUNONOOONDOO SONNOSOGHONOMNNOMNOuwWN 9 na ~ A o mn AN NH ns ~ m mo o ~~ —- © QT O a OOOOGOCO * * . . +. . . +. o . . . o ago Ia mgyoo8xvmooongogwn ~ o NA Am na « n ~ 00 TRINO = on + un Sas ne ny . e. o . . . . LAE . . O * * * e. .* . . Ndooo8B-undiodoHdooso dogcoSudoenonsoœu x o HN ~ q ~ ~ — nm ZE “Do o vy ONS 0 NTN NE E o . . . . . e. . * .* . _. e . +. +. . . . Ndooco8duoooHdoounso ONFVFHAHODNUSTMAHOON AOF on ~~ ~ ~~ A + an sm + O O no ORO 0 WN =O MF VAQVOFUNNVONTF AN OÙ AO . . . . 27 . e . 8 ee e. . . . * . . . . . . . .. om Soaan0ormo MO NOM doyadedariduaodioo So an un NA sus oo ~ n no Noun Oo no Nono AVVO OWN OM Oo o . > . * . .» e ..—o. CE ….. AsocoS9"doocosonmo donmosasdaddanossn o © A + un un Sa ea © ONO I~ © OO oriana on ~ oo . e. . . o» . . . . . e .. .. «ee NdoooBaHdxoooxanHdœ {ONNONSNNSONdOHNA o AA A — + ~ oa Tn Le wn o o on ORO O ON ou S00 Sn A o « .* . . . . . . O *.» . e. . . . +. =. +. NdoooBdd0odauas sa NYOOOUGNNOONVGNWON an - o “A o m HN AA ns n ma 0 do 0 Las] O NA nan ON oc. . . .. . . O + .» . . . e. ONNNMNOOONOINNNIN Nogoo8Sdgrnondæounra 3 ~~ o - o m AA ~ mn no sos 0 ono HO NON no 0 om . . . . . . ” . . + . . . e * . . +. . . . . e SNOOOOOHANOOHNMVWNOM!S A SFASANOOHAANOONNOD AN o o o ~ La < + os La] sm La - O M Las Le v v “À ha vu Tu + + TO HU YU + + VU VW + e 4 an” YH 0H du due Dam vu ul EII va Yi > bam unes HO pe 88825 Su wt HO +o A E ul a Pussod ooo Ud Nd e >n 4 q Iv - o Le o + HO - o Lal o + O 85 ' Da BRO Si 0. 'É£ 22 n° 9 wy ™ o hs oo HU o - o Di 3 vu u vo LD mm un o vo ojo > CR ojo > az AZ Mk HH o i Le m= HON o 1 Dai va À vu ~ + e g Q © £0 e v m Ju 0 e ss © + oo Mm > a oo wm > 97.3 75.4 68.8 60.0 82.7 78.3 72.8 87.7 86.6 85.7 93.1 94.5 87.8 94.7 93.3 91.4 96.5 97.2 93.6 97.3 98.8 97.1 96.5 100 75.4 53.5 65.7 73.5 83.0 83.0 75.0 82.8 88.2 96.9 88.6 82.1 94.2 94.1 98.4 92.4 92.8 97.1 100 98.4 4th Job Omitted 5th Job Omitted 6th Job Omitted 3rd Job Omitted 1061 Table 5 Use of Technical Assistance and Equipment Phil. Ind. Pak. Cey. Thai. Indon. Mal. Sabah Sar. Sing. ALL Totals 53 28 35 34 65 114 90 35 29 37 520 Tech. Equip. Need/gets 20.7 46.4 42.8 26.4 18.4 11.4 36.6 34.2 17.2 35.1 26.1 Need/diff. 41.5 21+4 25.7 41.1 29.2 39.4 17.7 8.5 24.1 21.6 28.6 Need/cant get 0 0 2.8 0 3.0 17.5 3.3 2.8 O 5.4 5.5 No need 37.7 25.0 25.7 23.5 43.0 23.6 37.7 48.5 58.6 35.1 34.6 Omit 0 7.1 2.8 8.8 6.1 7.8 4.4 5.7 0 2.7 5.0 Tech. Asst. Need/gets 5.6 50.0 45.7 32.3 13.8 20.1 32.2 14.2 3.4 32.4 27.6 Need/diff. 13.2 28.5 28.5 8.8 24.6 38.5 26.6 28.5 31.0 24. 28.6 Need/cant get 75.4 0 5.7 5.8 10.7 4.3 1.1 5.7 3.4 0 3.8 No need 0 7.1 11.4 29.4 26.1 19.2 24.4 40.0 44.8 32.4 24.6 Omit 1.8 14.2 8.5 23.5 24.6 17.5 14.4 11.4 17.2 10.8 15.0 Table 6 Recognition of Qualifications Recog. (v_other countries) Appt. Yes 71.6 64.2 77.1 58.8 70.7 66.6 86.6 77.1 82.7 86.4 74.2 No 15.0 14.2 8.5 29.4 23.0 17.5 10.0 17.1 6.8 8.1 15.3 Omit 5.6 21.4 14.2 11.7 6.1 15.7 3.3 5.7 10.3 5.4 10.3 Sal. Yes 56.6 60.7 65.7 35.2 55.3 57.0 81.1 65.7 68.9 83.7 63.4 No 18.8 14.2 8.5 38.2 36.9 21.0 12.2 20.0 13.7 8.1 19.8 Omit 24,5 25.0 25.7 26.4 7.6 21.9 6.6 14.2 17.2 8.1 16.7 Prom. Yes 62.2 57.1 68.5 41.1 63.0 54.3 80.0 68.5 75.8 86.4 65.3 No 18.8 17.8 5.7 35.2 24.6 21.9 10.0 20.0 6.8 2.7 17.1 Omit 18.8 25.0 25.7 23.5 12.3 23.6 10.0 11.4 17.2 10.8 17.5 Recog. (v own count Appt. Yes 62.2 60.7 51.4 41.1 50.7 70.1 80.0 71.4 82.7 70.2 65.7 No 26.4 14.2 20.0 29.4 40.0 17.5 6.6 8.5 3.4 5,4 17.8 Omit 11.3 25.0 28.5 29.4 9.2 12.2 13.3 20.0 13.7 24.3 16.3 Sal. Yes 50.9 60.7 48.5 32.2 46.1 62.2 73.3 62.8 75.8 67.5 59.2 No 24.5 10.7 17.1 35.2 43.0 22.8 8.8 8.5 6.8 8.1 20.0 Omit 24.5 28.5 34.2 32.2 10.7 14.9 17.7 28.5 17.2 24.3 20.7 Prom. Yes 62.2 57.1 51.4 38.2 52.3 58.7 73.3 60.0 68.9 70.2 60.3 No 18.8 14.2 14.2 35.2 33.8 21.9 7.7 11.4 3.4 5.4 17.6 Omit 18.8 28.5 34.2 26.4 13.8 19.2 18.8 28.5 27.5 24.3 21.9 Satis. Yes 66.0 57.1 60.0 32.3 69.2 48.2 72.2 57.1 58.6 70.2 59.8 No 20.7 14.2 25.7 44.1 26.1 40.3 15.5 31.4 20.6 16.2 26.7 Omit 13.2 28.5 14.2 23.5 4.6 11.4 12.2 11.4 20.6 13.5 13.4 1062 This paper was received too late to be printed in the Session to which it refers. It should therefore be read in conjunction with Session VI. m MOIS d n by S.H. Lee, M.B., B.S., D.P.H. Epidemiologist Medical and Health Department Hong Kong Government 1. The object of this paper is to give a brief review on the trends and patterns of mortality in Fong Kong during the post-war period with special reference to the changes of mortality patterns amongst different age groups. 2. The land area of long Kong is 398% sq. miles. The end-year population at 1965 was 3,785,300. Approximately 83° of the population is concentrated in the urban areas of Hong Kong Island and the Kowloon peninsula, 1455 in the rurel areas of the New Territories and the remaining 3% in the marine population. About 93% of the population are Chinese. After the Second World War the Colony had taken in e large number of immigrant population and most of thése originated from the neighbouring Kwanztung Province in China. It is a young population, 407 being below the age of 15 years and only 6% over the age of 60. Two censuses of population had been taken after the war. he first, a complete census, was teken in 1961, and the second, a by-census, 1 1966. Preliminary results of the latter census show a 20% reduction in marine population and a slowing down of the rete of increase of land population when compared with the 1961 census. The Colony has adequate facilities for the registration of births and deaths and registration is compulsory. =. 3 Po 4, The expansion of population in post-war years, due to unprecedented immigration and rapid natural increase, has created major 1063 difficulties in the fields of preventive and curative medicine. The problems arising from severe over-crowding have been aggrevated by poor environmental hygiene in the pre-war tenement and other buildings, by large aggregations of squatter and roof-top dwellings and by exiguous water supplies. However, in spite of these difficulties the general health of the population continues to be good as reflected by the satisfactory improvements in vital statistics. GENERAL MORTALITY 5. During the last few years before the outbreak of the Pacific War in 1941, the crude death rates varied between 26 and 37 per 1,000 population. The relatively high death rates was attributed at least in part to the prevalence of infectious diseases particularly cholera at that time, as a result of constant influx of refugees from China since the start of the Sino-Japanese incident in 1937, with consequent overcrowding and insanitary conditions, After the Second World Var the crude death rates dropped considerably, The rate for 1951 was 10.2 per 1,000 population. This fell further to 5.0 per 1,000 in 1966 (Table 1). 6. The reduction in general mortality in the post-war years is accounted largely by a reduction in mortality from infectious, respiratory and intestinal diseases, following improvements in the living and sanitary conditions, development of medical and health services and the carrying out of mass disease prevention immunization campaigns. The major trends in mortality are shown in table 2 and figure 1. It will be seen that deaths due to infectious, respiratory and intestinal causes comprised 66° of total deaths in 1951, and these have shown a continuous decline and in 1966 they comprised 28% of the total deaths. In the same table and figure, the rise in mortality from degenerative and stress diceases is illustrated by increasing proportionate mortality from neoplasms, diseases of circulatory and nervous systems. Mortality from this group has increased from about 12% of total deaths in 1951 to 43% in 1966. INFANT MORTALITY 7. The infant mortality rate in a few years before the Pacific War was over 300 per 1,000 live births. After the war the rate showed a steep decline to about 100 per 1,000 in 1946 - 1950, and a steady decline was maintained from 1951 onwards, (Table 1) This steady decline in infant mortality is attributed to improvement in environmental conditions, development of maternal and child health services and increasing public appreciation of the value of these services in the maintenance of health amonest infants and mothers. As demonstrated in table 3 on the major causes of infant mortality, there have been great reductions in infant mortality from the preventable diseases of later infancy particularly, tuberculosis, bronchopneumonia and gastro-enteritis, Due to improvement in midwifery and maternal health 1064 services, mortality from immaturity has also shown a reduction. However, mortality arising from endogenous factors such as congenital malformations and blood diseases of newborn remains relatively unaffected as observed . in other countries. MORTALITY 8. Maternal mortality has also shown a continuing reduction (Table 1). The major fatal complications arise from toxaemias and E haemorrhages of pregnancy, but there have been marked reductions in deaths from these causes during recent years. There was also a notable reduction in mortality from puerperal sepsis. Mortality from abortions and ectopic pregnancies remained relatively unaffected. The major causes of maternal ; mortality are shown in table 4. MORTALITY PATTERN BY AGE AND SEX GROUPS 9. The average age and sex specific mortality rates for the years 1955-1957 and 1964-1966 are used for the study. (Tables 5 and 6 and " Figure 2). Compared with 1955-1957 there was a decrease in mortality in all the age groups in 1964-1966 except the age group of 65 years and over. The decrease is most marked in infants and children of the age group 1-14. ' The increase in mortality with increasing age, except in infants and childhood, corresponds with the general mortality pattern observed elsewhere in the world. 4 10. Mortality for All Ages: Malignant neoplasms were the leading cause of death in 1964-1966 being responsible for 17.1% of all deaths. Mortality rate from this disease was 83.2 per 100,000 population. The leading causes of death among the malignant diseases were cancer of trachea, bronchus and lung not specified as secondary, cancer of stomach and cancer of buccal cavity and pharynx. 11. Heart disease was the second leading cause of death in 1964- 1966 with a mortality rate of 67.3 per 100,000 population. The disease ranked fifth in 1955-1957 and the mortality rate at that time was 50.3 per 100,000 population. The proportionate mortality rate for heart disease has increased from 6.5% of all deaths in 1955-1957 to 13.8% in 1964-1966. 12. Vascular lesions affecting the central nervous system ranked third in the cause-of-death list in 1964-1966. The mortality rate was 48.4 per 100,000 population and the proportionate mortality rate was 10% of all deaths in 1964-1966. 13. The death rates from the above mentioned 3 causes have shown both an absolute and a relative increase between 1955-1957 and 1964-1966, and the three disease groups were responsible for about 40% of all deaths in 1 964-1 966. 1065 14. Deaths due to pneumonia occupied the fourth place in the 1964- 1966 list. The disease was the top leading cause of death in 1955-1957. Mortality rate from this cause has dropped from 150.0 per 100,000 population in 1955-1957 to 44.4 in 1964-1966, and the proportionate mortality also showed a decrease from 19-4% to 9.1% of all deaths respectively. 15. Tuberculosis vas the fifth leading cause of death in 1964-1966, while in 1955-1957 this disease occupied the second place. lortality from this disease has shown a notable decline from 108.6 per 100,000 in 1955-1957 to 37.8 in 1964-1966. The proportionate mortality from this cause also dropped considerably from 14.05 to 7.8 of all deaths respectively. 16. Among the remaining five of the ten leading causes of death in 1964-1966, they were, in descending order, all accidents, infections of the new born, suicide and self-inflicted injury, nephritis and nephrosis and cirrhosis of liver. It will be noted that the discase group gastritis, ; duodenitis, enteritis end colitis, which formerly occupied the third place in the 1955-1957 list is not emong the ten leading causes of death in 1964-1966. 17. Age Group 1-4 years : The mortality rate for all causes in this age group has shown a 75% reduction in mortality from 788.5 per 100,000 population in 1955-1957 to 199.0 in 1964-1966. The fall in mortality occurred almost equally in both sexes. Although pneumonia remained the top leading cause of death in both periods under review, mortality rate from this cause has dropped significantly from 325.3 per 100,000 population in 1955-1957 to 64.3 in 1964-1966. 18. Measles was the second cause of death in 1964-1966 followed by all accidents, tuberculosis and gastritis, duodenitis, enteritis and colitis, the four causes being responsible for 45.6% of all deaths. Among the remaining five of the ten leading causes of deaths in 1964-1966, these include malignant neoplasms, diphtheria, congenital melformations, non-neningococcal meningitis and anaemias. Generally there did not appear to be any significant difference in mortality between the two sexes in this age group. 19. Age Group 5-14 vears : As observed in the developed countries, the leading cause of death in this age group was all accidents, being responsible for 35.4 of deaths in the age group in 1964-1966. The male mortality rate was approximgtely twice the female. 20. The second leading cause of death in 1964-1966 was pneumonia. Mortality rate from this discase has decreased from 33.3 per 100,000 population in 1955-1957 to 5.3 in 1964-1966. Malignant neoplasms were third in the cause-of-death list in 1964-1966. Heart disease and tuberculosis both ranked fourth. The remaining leading causes of death in this age group were nephritis and nephrosis, vascular lesions affecting the central nervous system. congenital malformations, diphtheria, non-meningococcal meningitis and anaemias. The mortality rates between the two sexes showed no significant 1066 difference in these disease groups. 21, Age Group 15 - 44 years : Malignant neoplasms were the leading cause of death in this age group in 1964-1966. Mortality rate from this cause has increased from 31.0 per 100,000 population in 1955-1957 to 38.8 in 1964-1966. In the age group 15 - 29 mortality among the males is higher than females by approximately 3 to 5 per 100,000 population. This difference was increased to 10 to 30 per 100,000 in the age group of 30 - 44. 22. Tuberculosis was the second leading cause of death in 1964-1966. Mortality rate from this disease has dropped considerably from 72.8 per 100,000 population in 1955-1957 to 23.8 in 1964-1966. The ser pattern amongst adults conforms that observed elsewhere with a higher mortality rate amongst the males than females. Accidents ranked third in the cause of death list, This cause was in general the leading cause of death for most of the developed countries in 1964. The median mortality rate in these countries was 37 per 100,000 population compared with an average mortality rate of 22.2 per 100,000 in Hong Kong. The major causes of death are motor vehicle traffic accidents, accidental falls and accidental drowning. The male mortality rate in all accidents was approximately four times the female. 23. The fourth leading cause of death was heart disease. All the above four causes were responsible for about 60% of all deaths in this age group in 1964-1966. Other leading causes of death were suicide and self-inflicted injury, vascular lesions affecting the central nervous system, pneumonia, nephritis and nephrosis, cirrhosis of liver and benign neoplasms. 24. Age Group 45 — 64 : Malignant neoplasms were the first leading cause of death in 1964-1966. The mortality rates for males ranged between 210.2 and 665.7 per 100,000 population, whereas that for females ranged between 142,7 ” and 314.0 per 100,000. The disease group was responsible for 28% of all deaths, Heart disease ranked second in the cause-of-death list with a mortality rate of 172.7 per 100,000 population. The mortality rate amongst males was twice that of females. Tuberculosis which ranked first in the 1955-1957 list was the third leading cause of death in 1964-1966, and mortality rate from this cause has dropped notably from 260 per 100,000 population in 1955-1957 to 123 per 100,000 in 1964-1966. Vascular lesions affecting the central nervous system ranked fourth in 1964-1966. Other diseases included in the ten leading causes of death were pneumonia, all accidents, cirrhosis of liver, suicide and self-inflicted injury, rephritis and rephrosis and bronchitis. 25. Age Group 65 years and over - As observed in the developed countries, heart disease, vascular lesions affecting the central nervous system, and malignant neoplasms were respectively the first, second and third leading causes of death in the age group in 1964-1966. The three causes together were responsible for about 5% of all deaths in the age group. Mortality rates in these 3 causes showed an increase when compared with the 1067 1955-1957 rates. Pneumonia and tuberculosis came fourth and fifth places in the 1964-1966 list. The other diseases in the ten leading causes of death were all accidents, nephritis and nephrosis, bronchitis, cirrhosis of liver and hypertension without mention of heart. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The author expresses his thanks to Dr. the Hon. P.H. Teng, C.M.G., 0.B.E,J.F. Director of Medical and Health Services for permission to submit this paper to the Conference of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population to be held in Sydney, Australia, August 1967. The views expressed are those of the author himself and are not necessarily those of the Medical and Health Department, BIBLIOGRAPHY Benjamin N.Il, Mok, Population Projections, Hong Kong Government Printing Department, (1961-1971) Hong Kong Annugl Report, P.H. Teng, Hong Kong Annual Report by Director of Medical and Health Services Hong Kong Government Printing Department, (1964 - 1965, 1965 - 1966). Registrar General's Department, Causes and Number of Deaths Registered, Hong Kong (1955 - 1957, 1964 - 1966). Hong Kong Government Printing Department, (1966) Year 1951 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 C.B.R. 34.0 37.9 38.8 36.6 37.1 34.2 3304 32.9 30.2 27.7 1068 Table 1 VITAL STATISTICS = HONG KONG 1951 - 19 C.D.R. I.M.R. N.N.M.R. M.M.R. 10,2 91.8 31.3 1.59 7.5 556 23.8 1.06 7.5 He 5 23.4 0.85 71 4843 21.3 O 73 6.4 41.5 20.9 0.49 506 32.9 18.9 029 50 26.4 16.6 0.38 4.8 23.7 152 0.33 50 24.9 15.3 0.43 1966 24.8 C.B.R. C.D.R. I.M.R. N,N,M.R. H.H.R. Crude Birth Rate per 1,000 population Crude Death Rate per 1,000 population Infant Mortality Rate per 1,000 live births Neo-natal Mortality Rate per 1,000 live births Maternal Mortality Rate per 1,000 total births ICD Noe 001-138 140-239 240-299 300-398 400-4468 470-527 530-587 590-637 640-689 690-749 750-776 780-795 Table 2 PROPORTIONATE MORTALITY BY DISEASE GROUPS, (Percentage of Total Deaths) Disease Groups Infectious and Parasitic Neoplastic Allergic,Endocrine, Metabolic and Blood Nervous System and Sense Organs Circulatory System Respiratory System Intestinal System Genito-Urinary System Pregnancy ,Child=birth and Puerperium Skin and Musculo- Skeletal System Congenital Malformations and Diseases of Early Infancy Ill-defined Causes E800-E999 Accidents Poisoning and Violence 1951 23.6 4.0 0.8 204 55 E 0.5 0.2 8.5 6.7 3.8 1951 - 1966 , 1257 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1266 216.6 14.6 14.2 1heh 1503 13.5 12,8 10,1 10,0 11.5 1.6 1.1 1e1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.5 12.1 11.1 1103 93 7.7 6.8 7.1 2.2. 19 21 2.1 20 21 22 0.5 05 Où 03 03 03 0.2 Où 0.5 Où 03 O2 O2 0.2 10.5 10.8 9.3 10.7 4104 1104 1143 e..….....0.......................... 50 4.8 58 57 59 7.6 6.3 1.5 57 2.0 0.2 0.2 9.9 82 8087 95 10.4 11.4 9%9 10.5 1.7 1.4 5.2 1.7 0.2 0.1 95 7.1 75 89 93 10,5 1203 12.4 1304 16.4 18.1 17.6 1.5 he6 53 6.2 7.2 8.3 Bok 901 1065 1167 10.7 8.0 8.3 8.9 9.7 10.7 11.0 12.2 1445 15.2 14,7 22.8 2,2 2203 19.3 14.8 1309 1303 10.7 10.6 1204 5.0 1.8 0.2 0.2 Bel, 8.9 7.1 6901 ICD Noe 770-771 772 795 1951, Cause of Death Respiratory l'uberculosis Tuberculosis Meningitis Other Forms of ‘l'uber- culosis Tetanus bronchopneumonia Pneumonia other forms bronchitis Gastroenteritis over age 21. of L weeks Congenital Malformations Births Injuries Post-natal Asphxia Pneumonia of Newborn Diarrhoea of Newborn Blood Diseases of Newborn Nutritional Malad justment Immaturity Ill-defined Causes 1951 1237 1.39: 0.36 2.41 : 1.04 0.93 + 0.17 1.20: 2,00 30.50 317.53 2.03: 0.20 2.93: 0.86 58 +10, 32 1.04 + 1.32 O. 94 + 0. 51 1.21 : 2.68 2.28 + 3.33 1.52: 1.14 0.86 : 1.00 0.98: 0.80 14.58: 9.68 1.30: 1.28 0. 03 0.17 4.21 0, 02 0.86 1,91 Os 54 1.31 0. 64 2.27 0. 07 6.49 0. 37 oLot ICD No. 640-641 681-682 642 643-641, 670-672 650-652 645 Cause of Death Sepsis excluding septic abortions Toxaemias of pregnancy Haemorrhages of pregnancy and childbirth Abortions Ectopic pregnancy Others * No case Table 4 MAJOR CUASES OF MATERNAL MORTALITY ( per 1,000 total births) 1951, 1957 and 1962 - 1966 1272 197 0.043 : 0.020 0474 i 0.373 0.617 * 0.334 0,029 & 0.040 0.187 : 0.060 (AA : 0,132 1962 0.018 fg € - & à Pp © FER <………........c........... o 8 1963 196 0.017 0.009 0.077 0. 055 0,111 0.118 0,009 0.045 0.034 0.055 0, 051 0.100 1965 o 0.077 0.135 0. C09 0.019 0.087 1966 0.011 0.053 0.107 0.032 0.128 0. 096 LLOL mn TABLE 5 AGE SPECIFIC DEATH RATES i 6 à Te ge Cause of Death All Ages 0 1-4 [5-14 15 - 44 | 45 - 64 a M | 832,4 6142.9 762,2 | 157.3 | 325.3 1814.6 | 6477.2 All Causes F | 708.4 5792.8 816.1 136,9 | 218.1 814.2 |3816.7 T | 772.5 5973.7 788.5 147.7 275.7 1270.6 | 4651.8 1.| B31 |Pneumonia (a) 150.0 1790.9 325.3 53.3 18,0 82.9 | 401.9 2.| Bi-2 |Tuberculosis 108.6 202.9 137.6 31.1 72.8 260.1 331.6 3.| B36 Gastro-enteritis 85.2 1294.8 178.3 11.6 5.6 21.0 95.5 Malignant 4. B18 | heoplasms 53.7 5.5 3.8 3.8 31,0 217.1 430.5 5.| B24-28 |lieart Disense 50.3 4.5 2.7 4.6 22.5 168.8 | 720.4 Vascular lesions «| B a a 6 22 afrecting 0.1.8. 30.7 3.1 0.9 0.7 7.1 105.6 582.0 7.| BE47-48 |A11 Accidents 25.5 25.8 25.4 24.0 23.0 30.1 49.2 I 8.| B43 res or 18.5 475.1 0 0 0 0 0 Nephri t 9. B38 rosa 15.7 7.2 7.7 6.9 | 8.5 37.4 | 181,8 Birth injuries, 10.| B42 postnatal asphyxia | 12.3 317.3 0.1 0 o 0 0 atelectasis All Other Causes | 222.1 1846.8 106.7 31.7 87.1 347.8 [1858.8 (a) Causes 1 to 10 and all other causes both sexes, 2.0, TABLE 6 AGE SPECIFIC DEATH RATES (per 100,000 populati on) 1964-1966 65 and Dilo" | Cause of Death [11 Ages| O 1-4 |5-14 |15- 44 [45-64 [over M} 532.8 2887.6 208.5 56.9 205,2. 115550 7126.9 A11 Causes F | 438.0 2275.2 189.9 46.7 128.1 681.1 3994.5 T | 486.1 2591.3 199.0 52.0 168.5 [1003.4 4924.9 - Mali. nt 11 B18 Eeoplasme (a) 83.2 4.8 6.7 5.2 38.8 | 280.6 | 693.1 24 B24-28 Heart Disease 67.3 4.4 1.5 3.0 17.2 172.7 1014.6 B ascular lesions 3. 22 bffecting C.N.S. 48.4 4.1 1.1 1.3 6.5 120.8 827.0 44 B31 Pneumonia 44.4 462.6 64.3 5.3 5.9 45.1 434.5 54 B1-2 [Tuberculosis 37.8 19.3 8.4 3.0 23.8 122.9 226.6 64 BE47-48A11 Accidents 25.3 32.4 26.5 18.4 22.2 33.4 68.5 Infections of New 74 M3 he 9.9 379.1 0 0 0 0 0 Suicide and self- 8, BE 49 inflicted injury 8.1 o 0 0.3 11.5 19.6 11.3 Nephritis and 94 B 38 mevhrosis 6.3 1.4 1.1 1.5 4.9 15.7 67.1 104 B 37 Cirrhosis of Liver 6.4 1.7 0.2 0.5 4.1 20.7 43.2 Al Other Causes 148.4 1689.5 89.0 13.8 33.6 313.7 1539.1 (a) Causes 1 to 10 and all other causeshoth sexes. £LoL 1074 FIGURE 1 MAJOR TRENDS IN MORTALITY 1951 - 1966 30 --- RESPIRATORY mere INFECTIOUS N ——— INTESTINAL —e— CIRCULATORY SYSTEM x —-—-= NEOPLASTIC : —— NERVOUS SYSTEM 201 PERCENTAGE OF ALL DEATHS o 1951 52 53 % 55 56 57 58 653 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 YEAR AGE SPECIFIC 1075 FIGURE 2 DEATH RATES 1955-1957 & 1964-1966 10000 8000 6000 = : 1 1 . 4000 F 11955-1957 / : Z + 77 \ Fy! 2000 Lh e t DL 1 “ = = is?” A o | ; ” A = a dus 71000 it on So 800 ri 7 : e a 4 Par A o La 7 . e 600 re o pd S 400 va 7 S yA + 7 9 | \ 7 1 TA > . ui | \ 1964-1966 a a ey 1 i \ \ ‘ 7 Das = \ N ” gd a A N vr 0 Zz 2 5 Ia \ => E T Y 60 e 40 20 10 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 AGE 1077 INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR THE SCIENTIFIC STUDY OF POPULATION SYDNEY CONFERENCE 21st - 25th August 1967 SESSION XI "THE TRAINING AND EMPLOYMENT OF DEMOGRAPHERS IN ECAFE REGION" Moderator : W.D. Borrie Friday, 25th August, 1967 11.15 a.m. to 1.00 p.m. 1078 1079 The Teaching of Demography at Undergraduate Level at Macquarie University By A.H. Pollard Professor of Economic Statistics, Macquarie University. Organisation of the University le Macquarie University, situated in the Sydney suburb of Eastwood, accepted its first intake of undergraduates in March 1967. Ten Schools have been established, namely 1. School of Behavioural Sciences 2. School of Biological Sciences 3. School of Chemistry 4. School of Earth Sciences 5. School of Economic and Financial Studies 6. School of Education 7. School of English Studies 8. School of Historical, Philosophical and Political Studies 9. School of Mathematics and Physics 10. School of Modern Languages and in each of these Schools a limited range of subjects is being taught at first year level this year. Courses at second level will be introduced next year and at third level in 1969. 1967 full time (day) enrolments total 332 and part-time (evening) 490. There are also external, non-degree and post-graduate enrolments (including one Ph.D. student in demography). 2. Each student is required to enrol in the School in which he proposes to undertake his major (third level) work but he is able to select courses from any of the Schools within the University. Credit points are awarded for each course successfully completed and a total of 68 credit points (subject to certain restrictions as to the level of the courses) is the minimum requirement for the degree of Bachelor. 1080 First level course 3. A first level course in Demography was introduced within the School of Economic and Financial Studies. Although some lectures in Demography have been included in certain undergraduate courses provided by other Australian universities this is probably the first time that Demography has been made available in its own right as a separate optional subject. The response from students was most encouraging. 67 have enrolled for the course, their stated main field of interest being Economics or Economic Statistics (45), Geography (9), Education(4), Mathematics (4), Psychology (3), English (1) and History (1). 4. The course includes lectures on the range of demographic studies, world population trends, census taking, the construction and uses of the mortality table, fertility measurement and trends, and mortality (measurement, sources, trends, laws, causes of death, differential mortality etc.). It is a two point course - that is, in content it is equivalent to one third of a normal full first year subject such as Economics, French or Psychology. At first thought this might appear to demographers to be unfair to the subject. However, a short course such as this has distinct advantages. A student who is studying three full subjects in first year may hesitate to embark on a fourth (i.e. the maximum); a student studying three full subjects plus a one or two point service course may not desire or may not be permitted to enrol in a fourth full course. Part-time students frequently find that two full subjects is too much but one full subject too little for the time they have available. For such students - and they are not rare - a two point course which is related to their major study is the obvious answer. The professors of some of these disciplines (e.g. Geography and Education) recommend Demography as a desirable ancilliary subject to their own courses. Second level course 5. Although the detail of second and third level courses of study has not yet been approved by the Academic Senate, the response to the first level course fully justifies the provision of courses in demography at higher levels. 6. It is proposed that the second level course, to be made available first in 1968, should consist of a series of lectures (plus reading, discussions, and written work) on "Selected topics in Demography" - about a dozen topics covering as wide a range as possible. No final selection has been made but the aim would be to include topics of general interest where the study of population becomes of interest to the historian, the geographer, the geneticist, the educationist, the sociologist or the economist. 1081 The following are examples: - History of World Population Techniques of Historical Demography with illustrations from France and England Forecasting fertility - the social survey method. Differential fertility and population quality Economic incentives and fertility Social and psychological factors affecting fertility World distribution of urbanisation The optimum size of cities The statistics of twinning and of the sex ratio at birth General principles of population genetics Migration since World War II - a world survey A crowded island - Puerto Rico Demography and education. 7. Such a course requires no specialist background (e.g. in mathematics) and is therefore ‘available to all second level students at the University. It therefore serves several purposes. For the potential demographer it is a further step in his training; for students in some related disciplines it indicates how a study of population is necessary to solve some of the problems in their own field; it is a most suitable "humanity" subject for scientists; and those who consider that there should be some "general education" courses at a university should find this course suitable. Third level courses 8. It is proposed that third level courses, to be made available first in 1969, should consist of a study in depth of some branch of the subject which seems appropriate in the light of the individual student's major field of study or in the light of the individual student's background. For example, mathematicians might take a course in mathematical demography; sociologists might study post war immigration into Australia; economists, forecasting population and the work force, vital statisticians, census taking or fertility measurement, historians, Australian historical demography etc. Aims of the programme 9. Australian demographers have in the past obtained their basic knowledge of the subject by self teaching after graduation. A number, after graduating in other disciplines, e.g. Geography, have joined the Department of Demography at the Australian National University and have found it necessary to spend the greater part of their first 1082 year's post-graduate activity obtaining the background knowledge which should have been acquired in their undergraduate years. Many of these recruits have by chance in their studies stumbled upon some demographic problem which has challenged them and as a consequence have chosen to work in the field. The absence of a steady flow of research students into the demographic field is therefore not surprising. Apart from some isolated exceptions, demographic research in Australia has been carried out at the Australian National University. 10. It is hoped that these courses will broaden the background of students majoring in other fields and that it will make them familiar with the demographer's tools to assist them in their own fields. The chief hope however is that, by providing students while still at the undergraduate level with a knowledge of the techniques of and the problems of the demographer, it will stimulate them to select demography as their field for later research. It is not a matter for regret that these courses are not full courses. It is necessary for the research worker in demography to have majored in mathematics or sociology or economics or some other appropriate discipline. If we can supplement this with enough demographic training, then graduates in these other fields would immediately be able to embark on valuable demographic research. We hope that, in course of time, this programme will produce a small but steady stream of able graduates who will choose to devote their energies to demographic research at Macquarie University or at the Australian National University. 1083 The Employment and Training in the ECAFE Region of Persons with Training in Demography or Allied Population Fields K.G. Basavarajappa and J.C. Caldwell Department of Demography, Australien National University A. INTRODUCTION $. In May, 1967, we began a survey, at the request of the Organizing Committee of the I.U.S.S.P. Sydney Conference, to study the employment and training of demograpli>rs in the ECAFE Region. This was undertaken by means of questionnaires sent to the relevant government departments and other institutions of the countries of the Region. By the end of June it was possible to compile this preliminary statement, which will later be supplemented by a more exhaustive report. 2. Inevitebly the first replies were received from the smaller countries, where the necessary information could be more quickly collected. This report includes data from Australia, Ceylon, China (Taiwan), Hong Kong, New Zealand, Philippines and Singapore. These countries make up only about a quarter of the members of ECAFE and 7 per cent of its population. Nevertheless they form an interesting string of nations around the south- eastern edge of the Region. They have above average standerds of living and levels of education, together with comparatively low levels of mortality. By 1965 the birth rate of Australia and New Zealand had been low for over two generations and stood at under 20 and 23 per thousand respectively, while those of Hong Kong and Singapore were falling quite steeply and had reached 27 and 31 respectively, and those of Ceylon, China (Taiwan) end Philippines stood at 33, 33 and perhaps close to 50 respectively. In Australia and New Zealand birth control was practised extensively and this was also becoming the position in Hong Kong and Singapore. In the last two and Ceylon, national family planning programmes had been started; in Taiwan a semi- official programme was well underway; while in the Philippines some family planning activity was beginning. 3. In each country population trends were being measured by government statistical services, which, in most cases, were amongst the more developed services of the ECAFE Region. : 1084 B. SURVEY OF DEMOGRAPHIC EMPLOYMENT 4. Throughout the survey questions were confined to people of professional rank who were either (a) recruited because they possessed high qualifications for undertaking demographic or population work, or (b) had been put on to such work because they possessed these qualifications. 5. By this test there were employed in the responding countries, with the exception of the Statistics Department in Taiwan and the Health and Family Planning Services in Ceylon, 145 demographers. Of this total, 40 (28%) were found in Australia, 22 (15%) in New Zealand, 36 (25%) in China (Taiwan), 28 (19%) in Philippines, 8 (6%) in Singapore, 6 (4%) in Ceylon and 5 (3%) in Hong Kong where two were in temporary employment. 6. The relative differences in the demographic work force can be understood better when the fields of activity are delineated. Over two- fifths (62) were employed in the gathering and analysis of population data (Census, Statistics etc.); over a third (50) worked in teaching and research, almost entirely in or associated with universities; a seventh (21) worked on the analysis of mortality or morbidity mostly in Health or Medical Departments; and an eleventh (13) worked on fertility or in family planning end control programmes. Thus the traditional collection of population statistics and the training of persons to interpret them are still by far the largest consumers of demographers. But the fastest growing sector appeared from the comments on the schedules and figures of employment targets to be the new family planning programmes. These fractions vary from one country to another. Over half of all the demographers working on fertility and family planning are found in China (Taiwan) where a large femily planning scheme has been accompanied by a determined effort to evaluate its effects; but a sixth are found in Australia where no family planning evaluation is taking place and where all are studying fertility trends based on the analyses of census and vital registration data. In the routine collection and analysis of population data Australia and the Philippines lead with 22 and 15 demographers respectively. In the field of teaching and associated research, Australia with 8 demographers is being outstripped by those countries where population institutes are being established to keep a wary eye on fertility trends; thus Taiwan has 15 demographers of this type (or even 20 by an alternative method of assessment) and Philippines 10. But greater specialisation, with a larger total number of demographers, has meant that Australia with 8 demographers full-time on mortality and morbidity employs over a third of full-time workers in this area. 1085 Table 1 Employment of Demographers in Various Fields Australia China Ceylon Hong Philippines Singapore New Totals (Taiwan) Kong Zealand (a)Gathering and analysis of population data 22 Ne 3 4 15 5 6 62 (n.a. (b)In work on mortality and morbidity 8 6 2 1 0 0 4 21 (c)In work on fertility and family planning 2 8 n.a. 0 3 o 0 13 (d)In teaching and associated research 8 15 1 0 10 3 12 50 TOr ALS 40 36 6 5 28 8 22 145 T- An attempt was made to distinguish between the number of employed demographers, the establishment agreed upon and future targets, but few countries have been able to plan this wey. In Australia, where this is done, over half the planned increase in the establishment over the next two years is in the health field, where it is hoped to double the full-time specialists on mortality and morbidity. = (b) employers 8. In the questionnaire some attention was given to employment by central government, regional government, local government or non-official organizations such as universities or private femily planning organizations. lt transpired that no demographers were employed by local governments and very few by regional governments. If we count the employees of the Provincial Administration of Taiwan as central government staff, then the only demographers in the countries examined employed by any governmentel admin- istrations other than the central ones are two working on health statistics for the State Governments of the two most vopulous Australian states. Even in federations, the collection and enalysis of population statistics appears to be peculiarly suited to central control. 9. Thus the overall position is that approximately a third of the demographers in the countries examined work for universities or associated population research and evaluation institutions, while two-thirds work for governments. In the ECAFE Region demography is certainly a field where adequate communications between universities and governments are important. 1086 Training 10. Details of training of demographers was obtained for 95 persons. Of these 28 (29%) had higher degrees, 22 (23%) first degrees only, and 45 (48%) non-university training. These figures understate the importance of the Demographic Training and Research Institute at Chembur, because training there is postgraduate and the officers trained are officially graded according to the degree which earned them the right for this training. No case was reported of a person having secured a first degree followed by a diploma in demography at the same university. 11. Almost half the demographers had received only non-university training and the great majority at least some training of this type. The most common method was in-service courses organized by the various Departments of Statistics and Bureaus of Census. Courses of this kind are almost - universal; but many had also undergone training for periods ranging from two weeks to two years in an astonishing range of special courses, seminars, workshops and so on, organized by a variety of international organizations and national governments. In the Bureau of Census and Statistics of the Philippines fifteen staff members have between them attended 23 courses of this kind, particularly those run by the International Statistical Educational Centre at Calcutta, the Demographic Training and Research Centre at Chembur, the Population Studies Center at the University of Pennsylvania, the International Statistical Programs Office at Washington, WHO, the Population Institute of the University of the Philippines, and the National Economic Council - Agency for International Development. Money for the purpose has come from the U.N., ‘the Colombo Plan, the Population Council, NEC-AID and WHO, as well as from internal sources. 12. Of the 95 demographers, 41 (43%) had received their major qualifications within their own country and the balance abroad. The importance of international training is further emphasised when it is realized that three-quarters of the higher degrees and two-thirds of the first degrees were earned in foreign countries compared with only two-fifths of the non- university training. Only in Australia had most training been within the country, although internal qualifications, including university degrees, were significant in Philippines, Hong Kong and Singapore, but much less so in Ceylon and China (Taiwan). Foreign university degrees had most frequently been obtained, in order, in United States and United Kingdom, followed at some distance by Australia and India. Only in Australia and Hong Kong had United Kingdom training been more important than United States. The Recruitment of Demographers 13. Data were obtained on the national origins of 88 demographers, of whom 79 (90%) had been born in the country employing them. Only in Australia, where immigration has been of greater recent importance in enlarging the workforce, had a significant number (21%) definitely originated outside the country, although this was probably so in New Zealand as well. 1087 —— —— — — 14. All employers were asked, "Do you employ persons with demographic qualifications for specialized demographic work?" and "If you use persons without specific demographic qualifications for such work, would you care to explain why?" 15: The pattern of response was similar throughout the respondent countries. The responsible direction of work is in the hands of qualified . persons everywhere. Where staffs have been established longer, as in Australia and New Zealand, these persons are more likely to be trained in mathematics or statistics and to have received any demographic training from internal or short external courses. Where staffs have been recruited more recently, there is a higher proportion of top administrators with specific demographic training in their university courses. In all countries steff with specific demographic training is used if available for the construction of population projections end estimates, life tables and similar undertakings, although there is also a tendency, particularly in Singapore, to contract out such work to university personnel. 16. Nevertheless, those with demographic training are often spread rather thinly, and most Statistics Departments and Census Bureaus have to use more unqualified staff than they would wish, leaning heavily on the native ability of such persons and the organization of internal training courses. Nearly all centres of this type would give preference to persons with demographic training if they could be found. In the Philippines it was said, "Yes, if there were any applicants; but the fact is that there are no applicants with demographic training." 17. The respondents were also asked, "Can demographic specialists continue to work wholly within their speciality and secure reasonable career advancement? If they desire to achieve such advancement, do they find it necessary to look to wider administrative fields to achieve it?" 18. In most cases the answer to the first question is "no" and to the second "yes". At the very least the specialist bent on promotion must take on much larger administrative responsibilities, thus cutting down the time spent on professional work. But the diffusion of his activities is usually greater than this. In Departments of Statistics he must move into statistical fields other than those concerned with population data to provide enough all- round experience to warrant promotion; while in universities he must usually fill his teaching load by teaching a majority of non-demographic courses, usually in sociology, economics or statistics. 19. It does appear to be true that most, or perhaps all, the governmental statistical organizations in the area fail to use highly trained specialists to their maximum by failing to provide specialist promotion positions and 1088 salary incremental scales which will compete in prestige and money with the top administrative positions in their structure. This is being increasingly recognized. It was reported from the Philippines that, "It is hoped that in the near future the Bureau [of Census and Statistics] may be able to offer such personnel adequate incentives to discourage them from seeking work outside the Bureau", and from China (Taiwan) that, "The status of fully qualified demographers has not been quite well established, but we usually try to provide them with as much security as we can for them to pursue their professional careers". C. SPECIFIC EXAMINATION OF FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAMMES Current employment 20. An attempt was made to examine the employment of demographers created by the establishment of large-scale family planning programmes. In Australia, Hong Kong and New Zealand there are no governmental programmes but there is considerable interest in the effect of family restriction on the birth rate; nevertheless birth registration is sufficiently complete for fluctuations in family planning to be detected in official statistics. In Australia, for instance, two government employees work full-time on fertility statistics and at least three university research demographers devote some of their time to it. In Singapore there is a Family Planning and Population Board, keenly interested in scientifically controlling its work, but to do this it either requests the assistance of the Statistics Department or pays university personnel to underteke specific investigations. 21. In the absence of figures from the Ceylon Health Department, information was received about eleven demographers employed to examine family plenning movements. Eight were in Chine (Taiwan) where a large semi-official family planning programme is in operation; in the Philippines, where unofficial family planning schemes have begun to develop, three members of the Populetion Institute attached to the University of the Philippines in lMenila, Luzon, work full-time on demographic aspects of this work, while in the Institute for Mindinao Culture at the catholic Xavier University in Mindinao two staff members devote some of their time to demographic aspects of the nearby rhythm family planning clinic. 22. The division of demographic staff associated with the family planning programme in China (Taiwan) may indicate how such employment will tend to develop: two spend most of their time on administration, two are employed in the field operations and medical work, while four devote their attention to research and evaluation using both clinic records and survey techniques. The Training of Employed Demographers 23. The new femily planning programmes are employing a much larger proportion of persons with specific training in demography than are the older 1089 statistics/census and university teaching institutions. In Taiwan seven out of the eight persons working on population aspects of the family planning progremme have received at least some of their training in 'demography' as such; the eighth, one of the administrators, did his graduate work in 'health education'. In the Population Institute in the Philippines all three persons working in this field had demographic training. In all cases the demographic training had been received in U.S.A., usually in courses which paid some attention to the problems of evaluating the success of family planning programmes. Personnel needs and targets 24. Once large-scale family planning programmes begin to develop the demand for professional personnel can be considerable. For instance the China (Taiwan) programme employs eight demographers this year, and intends to increase its professional staff to 18 next year, four of the increase apparently to be demographers. In order to achieve this increase, "We will recruit university graduates for the jobs and send them for advanced training abroad in demography and family planning (medical)". 25. On a smaller scale the same can occur in non-official programmes, such as in Hong Kong, where the Family Planning Association admittedly receives a government grant. They report, "This Association is a voluntary one and at the moment does not employ any person qualified in the 'population' field. We may, however, set up a small Research and Evaluation section in the near future; this section would consist of a demographer, necessarily of Chinese origin, and possibly two research assistants, unqualified persons of matriculation level. 26. In most countries examined the necessary training, at least in long-term, university-type courses, could only be obtained overseas. However, it was reported in the Philippines that an M.A. Degree in Demography could be secured at the University of the Philippines in Luzon or Xavier University in Mindinao, but that students proceeding to the Ph.D. went almost invariably to the United States. Modification of existing training to meet new needs 27. When asked how existing population courses should be modified to meet the needs of the new national population programmes, emphasis was placed on meeting immediate needs. In China (Taiwen) it was said, "The existing courses should more strongly emphasize planning, administration, evaluation and research in family planning work so that the training offered can find immediate use. Practical training in family planning in the field is also highly desirable". D. TRAINING 28. A special series of questions, relating to all persons working in the population field, was directed to the provision of training facilities. 1090 Training centres 29. Respondents were asked, "If a population training and research centre were to be established in your country, would you care to comment on the kind of training and research it should carry out?" 30. Only Hong Kong felt its size to be so small as to make it inadvisable or unnecessary to create any kind of population centre. Ceylon believed its size, together with its proximity to the Chembur Centre in India, militated against the establishment of a demographic centre as such or a large-scele training institution, "but a population research centre in Ceylon would be very useful and could cover all socio-economic aspects of population including trends in family planning and mental and social characteristics, the impact of economic development etc." 31. Comments could be divided paradoxically into those from developing countries with existing training facilities and those from developed countries without such facilities. China (Taiwan) pointed out that, although facilities would undoubtedly expand, it could already offer full-time, professional courses in 'family planning' including both theoretical and practical treatment of planning, implementation, motivation, health education and field practice, as well as more strictly demographic work on research and evaluation. It was reported from the Philippines that, "The Population Institute [University of Philippines, Manila] does not engage directly in training for family planning or population control. Such training sessions are conducted by the private family planning agencies and the Institute merely provides some of the lecturers for it. There is a plan to co-ordinate the demographic and population activities of the University without necessarily establishing a separate structure for it. Such a plan envisages the undertaking of training as well as research in both demography and population. The Colleges of Medicine, Arts and Sciences, Institute of Hygiene and Population Institute plus the Philippines General Hospital will combine forces to carry out these activities". 32. The developed countries showed unexpected interest in developing population centres. Such an institution, said the Australian report, should concentrate on "training in methods of data collection, processing and analysis, including analytical techniques applicable to data of varying degrees of completeness and reliability" and on "research into Australian matters including all aspects of immigration, urbanization and family structure". The New Zealand report favoured a centre which would provide full training in demographic analysis and research in "a number of areas where considerable public and scientific interest lies ... of a more systematic nature than is possible at present ...; included in these areas are: factors affecting, and attitudes to, family size and spacing of births; ex-nuptial fertility; llaori and non-Maori demographic differentials; and external migration". 1091 33. Some other information was available to the writers on other training facilities. Prominent amongst these were reports on the United Nations = Government of India Demographic Training and Research Centre at Chembur near Bombay in Indie.’ The Centre offered a one-year Certificate course, a two-year Diploma course, higher training and research and a Ph.D. through collaboration with the University of Bombay, a course in family planning and communications research and certain other special arrangements. Almost equal numbers of Indians and non-Indians had been trained since 1957, three times as many taking the Certificate Course as the Diploma Course. . By 1966-67 the most rapidly growing course was the Family Planning Communication Research, but, even in the latter year, only a seventh as many students took it as the Certificate and Diploma courses combined. Two points might be made in assessing the relevance of the Chembur Centre to the statistics provided in this paper: first, of the 196 students trained up to 1966-67, 31 (a sixth, but a third of all ECAFE area non-Indian students) came from the countries described in this paper; second, of the fifteen professional people in the population field employed by the Philippines Government, for all of whom we have a complete education record, seven had received some of their training at Chembur. 34. A paper on the introduction of the teaching of demography in the new Macquarie University in Sydney, Australia“, explained how demography had been offered for the first time as an optional first degree subject at an Australian university. It was felt by the writer that, although most practising demographers in Australia have had to rely on self-training, this new development would provide enough supplementery formal training to graduates in other fields to allow them to undertake important demographic research. 35. The only Demography Department in the ECAFE Region is apparently that in the Institute of Advanced Studies of the Australian National University. Hitherto it has offered only the Ph.D. (Demography) Degree but it is possible that some M.A. (Demography) Degrees will be awarded in the future. Nevertheless the work expected will continue to rest heavily on research summarised in a major thesis. In the last ten years half the Ph.D.s awarded have been to candidates from the ECAFE Region outside Australia and most of the balance to Australians. National or Regional training 36. Respondents were asked, "How do you think demography and population training facilities should be organized - in each country or on a regional basis?" The Philippines alone, probably partly because of its population 1 Information here from the Director's Training Report, 1965-1966 and supplementary material. 2 A.H. Pollard, "The Teaching of Demography at Undergraduate Level at Macquarie University", I.U.S.S.P. Conference, Sydney. 1092 size and partly because of the existing diversity of its tertiary education structure, felt it could provide for itself at least in terms of the ECAFE Region. "If possible, each country should organize its own training and research facilities, since its needs, problems and way of life are peculiarly its own". However, it was also suggested that English-speaking Asians might be able to make some use of Philippines! training facilities. The New Zealand report felt that the country must develop its own demographic training while conceding that this was not necessarily so for every country in the region at their existing level of development and that undoubtedly a sound case for regional centres could be made. 37. All other responses were along broadly similar lines: where specific national needs were felt to exist institutions should be established to meet them, but regional planning should ensure most needs were met regionally where possible, either by the creation of separate regional facilities or by the development of aspects of some of the national centres to meet different facets of the regional demand. The Hong Kong report pointed out that emphasis on regional planning should not obscure the fact that some needs were more efficiently or cheaply met on a global basis. Ceylon maintained that teaching could be undertzken more economically and probably better on a regional basis, but that some demographic research was so essentiel in each country that each should strive to establish a small national population research institute. The China (Taiwan) Report believed that centres "should be organized on a regional basis to exchange experiences and to save duplication of effort". The Australian report put the case for developing some national facilities to the point where they could be used for international purposes: "There is scope for centres in several countries all of which might share in providing training for countries not themselves so equipped. In these latter countries the primary need may be to train officials both in organizing the collection of data and in making use of demographic data for planning and other government purposes. Visits to such countries by outside experts and periods of training for the countries! officers both seem necessary." The provision of assistance 33. The questionnaire asked, "In the provision of (a) demography and population training facilities and (v) trained personnel, to what extent should the initiatives be made, the facilities set up, the money provided snd skilled personnel supplied by (i) the individual nation, (ii) United Nations! agencies and other bodies, (iii) financial assistance schemes of foreign governments, (iv) private international organizations (e.g. Foundations)?" 39. Whatever may be the feeling of individuals competing for jobs, there is no doubt that those charged with carrying out operations are ready to welcome money and personnel of the right calibre from many sources. All reports speak favourably of assistance from the United Nations and its Agencies, even those of the developed countries. Similarly, all welcome 1093 assistance from Foundations, especially in the establishment of new projects, where, during the dangerous initial experimental years, they can find money that governments might be reluctant to risk and staff for the critical period preceding the production of sufficiently trained local persons. Next in order, but not opposed, except in the case of Hong Kong which has the peculiar relation of a colony to a single country, is money from foreign governments, especially when it is channelled through governmental organizations specifically set up for this purpose. 40. The developed countries, as might be anticipated, referred more to self-help in their own cases. "New Zealand has little justification for outside assistance and any provision should be internal." Australia saw the possibility of bringing the universities into the picture but with governmentel and even external helps "The larger nations of the region might take the initiative in setting up centres in their universities. Once established, the centres could attract further support for particular appointments or particular projects from U.N. agencies, other countries or private foundations." 41. For the developing countries the views expressed from Ceylon and the Philippines are typical. In the former it was said, "Assistance from U.N. funds or from private organisations such as the Ford Foundation are indispensable for the running of an efficient research centre, at least during the first few years". In the latter it was reported, "Because of the limited funds of the government, the country needs the assistance of the United Nations' Agencies, financial assistance schemes of foreign governments, and private international organizations in the provision of demography and population training facilities," and again from the Population Institute in that country, "If the individual nation has scant resources at its disposal, the U.N. agencies should provide technical assistance in the development of a national center; Foundations can help by offering scholarships for staff development; financial assistance schemes of foreign governments can provide funds for local or foreign training and for the conduct of basic research". The loss of trained demographers 42. The writers had before them some evidence of the loss of trained demographers from the ECAFE Region. The loss appeared to be much less worrying than has sometimes been claimed, but as the analysis was confined to persons from Asia who had been Population Council Fellows, a group who have been urged to return home with their skills, there may be some bias in the sample. 43. Of 120 Fellows from the Region, it appears that 71 (59%) are now serving in their home countries, and that, of the balance, three-quarters were either still receiving education overseas, had gone again for further training, or were on short-term appointments. Thus the permanent loss rate may be as low as 10 per cent. 1094 General observations 44. Respondents were asked to comment generally on matters within he scope of interest of the questionnaire. One point was the difficulty of securing sufficient official recognition of non-degree quelifications from training institutions to promote persons sufficiently to allow them ‘to secure adequate salaries and, more importantly from the national viewpoint, to undertake the advanced demographic work for which they have been trained. 45. Another problem that may arise stems from changing circumstances and government policies. For instance, it is possible that some governments, such as, for instance, that of the Philippines, might soon feel themselves compelled to adopt more active population policies. In these circumstances the Bureaus of Census and Statistics would necessarily feel obliged to retrain some existing officers in such demographic techniques as would be necessary to evaluate the success of any such policies, for there has usually been no previous pressure for such training. 46. In the Ceylon report it was further emphasised that, if planners and administrators are to base their actions upon properly evaluated social data, then it is necessary to establish national population centres to examine "all fields of social, economic and human development, including health, education, community development, mental attitudes, family planning, urbenisation and criminology". 47. There zre problems of inadequate demographic analysis even where demographic problems are not particularly worrying. It was reported that in New Zealand, "the Department of Statistics, for example, has such heavy demands on it in relation to its resources that it cannot engage in a regulor continuing programme of demographic research ... [and hence] the organization of demographic studies on a more systematic basis would be a considerable advance. Such a step would require the esteblishment of a comprehensive training course in demography by at least one of the New Zzaland universities." Ee CONCLUSIONS a Summary 48. In general the enquiry sustained and perhaps amplified various findings reported at the Yorld Population Conference, 1965, and et other meetings. For instance, most respondents would agree with the contention thet demographic training and research in their countries is not commensurate with world concern about the population problem. They would also agree 3 A.T. Boyarsky, loderator, "Promotion of demogrephic research and training in developing countries," World Population Conference, 1965, vol. I, Summary Report, p.180. 1095 that the urgent specific need has arisen in their countries because of demands for better population statistics associeted in many developing countries with the growing interest in the progress or possibility of family plenning.* Equally it is true that in ECAFE countries there is a very uneven availability of trained demographers; the hypotheses that higher national incomes meke it more possible to employ and train such specialists being supported by the fact that four-ninths of Profassiouas persons in the countries exemined were in Australia and New Zealand. 49. Most demographers in the area are still working on collecting and analysing basic population data. However, in high-fertility countries the demand for demographers to evaluate the impact of family planning is growing fast. On the other hand in low-fertility countries there is a considerable rise in the demand for trained persons to work on mortality and morbidity datas Around two-thirds of those specialists studied were employed by central governments and one-third by universities. 50. Half the demographers in the area have degrees, and over half of these higher degrees. The latter are still earned to a very great extent outside the region, perhaps sensibly enough, for "it is not certain whether every nation, regardless of its size and the degree of its need for professional demographers, could and should establish training facilities for demographers at graduate level." Nevertheless, it should be noted that there are many llasters' Degrees with a demographic strand offered in Indial; and that, although there are more extensive facilities in the United States, there is as yet no separate Demography Department in the United States. It has been noted previously, and it is borne out here, that there is in many developing countries a cyclic problem in establishing demographic training - the lack of training means a severe lack of potential trainers upon whom to T. Montenegro, Rapporteur, ibid., p.186. 5 "Regional Demographic Training Programmes under Changing Conditions : Note by the Secretary-General," United Nations Interregional Workshop on Programmes of Training in the Field of Population, Denmark, June 1967, E/CN.9/CONF.4/L.2, par. 13. Ibid., par. 12. A. George, "The Teaching of Demography in Indian Universities," United Nations World Population Conference, 1965, B.8/I/E/408, Appendix. 8 Vincent H. Whitney, "The Recruitment of Personnel for Training in Demography," United Nations World Population Conference, 1965, B.8/1/8/239, p.4. 1096 draw.” What may have often been understated is the very significant role inservice training plays in Departments of Statistics and Census and of inservice experience in such departments and also amongst university demographers. Such training is now being supplemented by a range of short- term courses organized and financed internationally. It should also be noted’ that organizations that have recruited most staff only recently, such as those concerned with family planning evaluation, usually have the highest proportion of 'population' personnel with specific demographic training. 51. Most 'population' personnel are locally born. The most highly trained amongst them are usually in charge of population work, although they may have to be supported by considerable numbers of persons who can be offered nothing beyond inservice training. The problem of retaining these highly trained persons, or of retaining their skills for specialist work, is that promotion and higher pay usually mean moving into fields requiring less specific technical skills. 10 Nor will the highly trained always offer themselves for the more lowly paid specialist government positions; they often go into universities or overseas - this is part of the explanation for the paradox of the shortage of demographers and of posts for demographers. 11 52. An upsurge is already beginning in the demand for personnel to evaluate and direct the new large-scale family planning programmes. But there are real myltidisciplinary problems in organizing suitable training for such posts; | Chembur has begun to experiment in this field. Most persons involved in the area studied feel that such courses should in part be very practical and down-to-earth. 53. The consensus seems to be that every country should try to develop at least a modest population research centre, but thet demographic training should remain regional. There do not appear to be any serious complaints about the reinas that has been offered at U.N. Demographic Training and Research Centre. ! However, questions remain unanswered about their permanency - most respondents appear to want them to remain indefinitely -, 9 "Regional Demographic Training Programmes ...", op.cit., par. 10. 10 See also Montenegro, op.cit., pp. 188-189. 11 Ibid., p.187. 12 "Regional Demographic Training Progremmes...", pars. 56 and 58. 13 See K.C. Zachariah, "Experience of Chembur Demographic Training and Research Centre in International Co-operation", United Nations World Population Conference, B.8/I/E/333. 1097 cost of training, and the failure of many governments to give adequate recognition in terms of promotion for their qualifications. ! There is a feeling that regional training might be based more on a rationalization of the training possible in some well developed national centres, an agreement with the need expressed by the U.N. Population Commission in 1965 for developing and adjusting the training programmes of the U.N. regional demographic centres and other training arrangements and the co-ordinating of these activities with other regional and national training programmes. > There was also a feeling that more could be done to use góvernmental or international Joey to build on the experience already in reserve at some universities, | as is indeed being done at the University of the Philippines. There is certainly a belief that demography within universities strengthens various disciplines, but respondents did not proceed further with the argument as to whether or not adequate demography Soursgs in universities require either separate Departments or even Faculties. ' 54, Finally, there is very great agreement on the need for all forms of international aid, money, personnel and training facilities, and very little tendency to spurn it from any source. This it is felt is needed most during the formative years of new institutions. There may in fact be a greater return from overseas training than is sometimes suggested; the permanent loss rate of demographic trainees to their home countries may well have been frequently exaggerated. - Unresolved questions. 55. In one sense most of the replies to questions on required training were oblique in that they failed to discuss whether the existing structure of demographic treining has proved satisfactory. There has been very little development in the ECAFE Region of substantial undergraduate courses in demography, let alone the establishment of first degrees majoring in demography. Even now, most governmental or university staff requiring demographic training secure it by means of postgraduate study either within the ECAFE Region or more commonly overseas. Even the lectures given by research workers in the new population institutes tend to be addressed to students enrolled in courses subsequent to a first degree. It would be valuable to know whether these essentially historical developments have proved to be satisfactory. Should the development of further demographic 14 See D. Kirk, Moderator, "Promotion of Demographic Research and Training...," op.cit., p.185. 15 "Regional Demographic Training Programmes...," op.cit., par. 1. 16 For a discussion of some of the problems, see lfuhammad Khalid Hayat Khan, "Problems of Recruitment and Training of Personnel for Demographic Training and Research in Pakistan," United Nations World Population Conference, B.8/I/E/78. 17 See Boyarsky, op.cit., par. 180. 1098 courses, especially within the Region, concentrate on postgraduate students and should a good deal of the effort be put into the structuring of higher degrees in demography? Are bureaus of census and departments of statistics satisfied to recruit staff with first degrees in mathematics, statistics, economics, sociology and geography? 56. If it is agreed that the major concentration should be on higher degrees in demography, then what relation should these bear to first degrees? It seems inevitable that, if higher degrees in demography become more numerous, if more students take such courses, and if these degrees become more important in the sense that more institutions specify the need for staff to have such training, then it seems likely that the first degree requirements for enrolment will be spelt out in great detail. If this is done, it might substantially alter the nature of some first degrees. For instance, it might be specified that those students desiring to proceed to higher degrees in demography should have received more training in statistics, or even demography, than is now common in sociology or economics first degree courses. Some first degrees might not be deemed suitable prerequisites for a higher degree in demography. Is any thought being given in the ECAFE Region to the whole structure of training in demography and to the relation between first and higher degrees in such training? 57. It is clear from the responses to the questionnaire that there is £oing to be irresistible, and doubtless justifiable, pressure to establish and expand population research institutes, often with an attachment to universities. How will they fit into the training picture, and what is the evidence from developments to date? Will some students working for higher degrees undertake their research work within the institutes or as part of institute projects? Will institute staff supervise such students? Will institutes award their own higher degrees, or will degrees normally be part of the work of a seperate university department or faculty? Will institute research workers give short schools on either demography or experience in the field of population control and its eveluation? If these things are not done, how will the experience of the institutes be passed on sufficiently thoroughly and in a short enough time? Is it possible that some of these institutes will develop into university departments in graduate schools somewhat similar to the Demography Department at the Australian National University? 58. Finally, not all the problems associated with the development of national family planning programmes have been faced. These programmes will need large staffs which will probably have to be recruited over comparatively few years beginning almost immediately. They will have to employ on a large- scale medical and paramedical personnel, but some of this staff, especially at higher levels, would benefit from a demographic strand in their training. But on the evaluation side of the programmes, and in much of the administration, there will be a need for persons with predominantly demographic skills, although even here there will doubtless be e greater demand for medical knowledge than demographers have traditionally acquired. 1099 59. It is probable that there is a need for at least two new kinds of course = medical family planning with a demographic ingredient, and demography with a medical family planning and human reproduction ingredient. Can these be evolved in the ECAFE area, or outside it with ECAFE needs in mind? Can higher degrees be structured; can existing courses be modified or supplemented; will they be acceptable to the universities; what kind of first degrees should they be superimposed upon? Are short, non-degree, post-graduate, pressure-cooker type courses the answer? Where do the U.N. Demographic Training and Research Centres fit into this? How can present . experience be utilized, especially the experience being accumulated in the large-scale family planning schemes? What does that experience teach with regard to the structuring of these courses and the modifications that must be made to syllabuses to meet new needs? Are the new population institutes the real catalysts in the whole process of evolving new training courses and keeping new directions of research and teaching courses closely allied? 60. These questions must be asked for they bear on problems which will have to be solved in a shorter time than cen usually be allocated for changes in the structure of tertiary education. BERKELEY LIBRARIES coBbabonab