LIBRARY UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA DAVIS ^if ^ /4^^^,x T) STATE OF CALIFORNIA DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES 1 Of MIIFOHKM BHARY e«yis »PY2 FEATHER RIVER AND DELTA DIVERSION PROJECTS BULLETIN NO. 78 INVESTIGATION OF ALTERNATIVE AQUEDUCT SYSTEMS TO SERVE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA APPENDIX D ECONOMIC DEMAND FOR IMPORTED WATER EDMUND G. BROWN Governor MARCH, 1960 HARVEY O. BANKS Director -'UN 2 1960 STATE OF CALIFORNIA DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES FEATHER RIVER AND DELTA DIVERSION PROJECTS BULLETIN NO. 78 INVESTIGATION OF ALTERNATIVE AQUEDUCT SYSTEMS TO SERVE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA APPENDIX D ECONOMIC DEMAND FOR IMPORTED WATER EDMUND G. BROWN F/^^W^p\ HARVEY O. BANKS Governor IS v-^^jiij^") Director MARCH, 1960 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ACKNOWLEDGMENT xviii CONSULTANTS xix ORGANIZATION, CALIFORNIA WATER COMMISSION xx ORGANIZATION, STATE DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES xxi CHAPTER I. INTRODUCTION MB CONCLUSIONS 1 Authorization for Investigation 2 Scope of Investigation 2 Water Supply Conditions in Southern California Area k Prior Reports 9 Conduct of Investigation . 10 Basic Planning Assumptions 12 Conclusions ..... ..... I7 CHAPTER II. LAND AND WATER RESOURCES 19 Inventory of Land Resources 19 Land Classification I9 Land Use 26 Inventory of Water Resoiarces 30 Importation from Existing Sources 30 Local Water Supplies 31 Local Water Costs 36 Other Possible V/ater Soixrces kl Reclamation of VJater from Sewage kl Page Desalinization of Drainage Waters from Imperial Valley i+3 Conversion of Sea Water kk CHAPTER III. URBAN DEVELOPt-lENT U6 Investigation of Futxire Population Growth 50 Components of Natural Increase 52 Fertility Rates 52 Mortality Rates 6l United States Population Projection 63 Immigration 63 Computation of United States Population Projection 66 Projected United States Population 6? California Population Projection 72 In-migration 73 Computation of Projected California Population 83 Projected California Population 8k Regional Distribution of California's Population 85 Population of Southern California Counties 92 Population of Subunits 96 Urban Land Requirements IO7 Economic Development 110 Employment in California 11^4- California Population and Employment Projections 119 Employment in Southern California 120 Southern California Population and Employment Projections 122 11 Page CHAPTER IV. IRRIGATED AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT 12^1 Procedure 125 Factors Affecting Irrigated Agricultural Development 126 Availability and Quality of Land 126 Crop Adaptability 127 Historical Agricultural Development Patterns 120 Market for Farm Products 130 Computation of Residual Income 135 Price-Cost Base 136 Residual Income 13b Rate of Retujrn on Investment 139 Cost of Water to tne Farmer li+ij- Local Organizations for Water Development 1^6 Size of Farm 1^19 Projection of Irrigated Acreage 151 CHAPTER V. WATER RElQUIREMENTo 155 Unit Urban Water Use 155 Analysis of Historical Data I56 Temperature 157 Precipitation I58 Personal Income 158 Selling Price of Water I60 Industrial Water Use 16O Projection of Unit Urban Water Use l62 Computation of Historical Trend l62 111 Page Projected Unit Urban Water Use I67 Projection of Net Unit Urban Water Use 169 Net Urban Water Requirements 179 Unit Irrigation Water Use l82 Agricultural Water Requirements I85 CHAPTER VI. ECONOMIC DEMAND FOR IMPORTED WATER 18T Southern California Coastal Plain and Coastal San Diego County Service Area 192 Service Area of Metropolitan Water District 195 Coastal Plain Areas not Presently Seized with Imported Water I98 Demand for Imported Water by Areas 199 Ventura County Service Area 205 Santa Barbara Service Area 20? San Luis Obispo Service Area 210 Antelope -Mo jave Service Area 212 Whitewater-Coachella Service Area 215 Kern Coiinty Service Area 217 Qualitative Effects of Variations in Basic Assumptions on Demands for Imported Water 221 Climate 221 Aqueduct Location 223 Price of Imported V/ater 22^)- Rate Design 226 Projected Population 226 iv Page Depressed Economic Conditions 227 Smog 227 United States Immigration 228 Construction of Ocean Outfall Sewers 228 Metropolitan Water District Membership 229 Ground Water Basin Overdraft 229 Water Quality Considerations 230 Unit Urban Water Use 231 Development of Local Water Supplies 232 ATTACHMENTS Attachment No . Page 1 Organizations and Persons Materially Contributing to the Investigations 233 2 Statements of Consultants for Review of Studies of Future Urtan and Agricultural Growth . . 238 3 Land Classification Tables Containing Data on Each Sub\init 252 k- Land Use Tables Containing Data on Each Subunit . . . 264 5 Population Growth Rates 275 6 Detailed C ohort -Survival Projection of the United States Population 280 7 Detailed Cohort -Survival Projection of California Population 286 8 Table of High and Low Projections of the Regional Distribution of California's Population 290 9 Tables of County Population Projections 293 10 Tables of United States, California and Southern California Area Employment 299 11 Table of Historical and Projected Market Demand for and Production of Major Southern California Crops. . 306 12 Derivation of Unit Residual Annual Income For Payment For Irrigation Water and Farming Incentive by Principal Crops by Counties 308 13 Derivation of Annual Return to Capital Investment in Farms by Principal Crops by Counties 326 lU Projected Net Acreages of Irrigated Crops by Counties 33*+ 15 References 3^2 vi TABLES Table No . Page 1 Classification of Irrigable and Habitable Lands 21 2 Present Water Service Areas 28 3 Comparison of Present and 1950 Water Service Areas .... 29 h Estimated Safe Yield of Local Water Supply Development 35 5 Levels of Urban Water Costs and Quantities Delivered by Sampled Water Agencies in the Southern California Area in 1957 37 6 Levels of Agricultural Water Costs and Quantities Delivered by Sampled Water Agencies in the Southern California Area in 1957 39 7 Historical and Projected National Gross Reproduction Rate 57 8 Historical and Projected National Gross Reproduction Rates and Age-Specific Birth Rates 59 9 Projected United States Net Immigration by Age and Sex 65 10 Historical and Projected Components of Changes in the United States Population 69 11 Historical and Projected Population of the United States and California 71 12 Historical Net Migration to California by Geographical Division of Birth 75 13 Historical and Projected Primary Interstate Movement of Native United States Population 78 ik Historical and Projected Components of Change in the California Population 80 15 Historical and Projected Age-Group Distribution of California Net Migration 82 16 Historical and Projected Regional Distribution of Population in California (Median Projection) 86 vii TABLES Table No . Page 17 Present and Projected Population in the Southern California Area 94 18 Population Distrihution in the Los Angeles Area hy Two-Mile Concentric Zones Centered on the Los Angeles City Hall 99 19 Ten Mile Moving Averages of Population, Areas, and Population Densities in the Los Angeles Area .... 101 20 Historical and Projected Relative Densities of Distance Zones in the Los Angeles Area 102 21 Projected Population Densities of Distajice Zones in the Los Angeles Area IO5 22 Projected Distribution of Population in the Los Angeles Area by Distance Zones IO6 23 Historical and Projected Urban Land Requirements IO9 2U Historical and Projected Employment in the United States 113 25 Historical Employment in California 115 26 Present and Projected Employment in California II8 27 Historical Employment in the Nine Southern California Counties 121 28 Projected Employment in the Nine Southern California Counties 123 29 Projected Consumption by the United States of the Total Production and California Production of Selected Crops 132 30 Farms by Type of Operator in the Southern California Area l40 31 Returns to Capital Investment by Irrigated Crops 1^2 32 Estimated Farm Sizes 15O Vlll TABLES Table No . Page 33 Present and Projected Net Areas of Irrigated Crops 153 3^ Derivation of Weighted Average Value of Unit Urban Water Use by Temperature Zones for 1930 163 35 Derivation of Weighted Average Value of Unit Urban Water Use by Temperature Zones for 1955 • • I65 36 Projected Average Unit Values of Urban Water Use in Selected Areas* I68 37 Derivation of Future Values of Net Unit Urban Water Use for Coastal Riverside and San Bernardino Counties 172 38 Derivation of Future Values of Net Unit Urban Water Use for Santa Maria, Ojai and Santa Clara River Valleys 173 39 Derivation of Future Values of Net Unit Urban Water Use for Oxnard Plain in Ventura County, South Coastal Santa Barbara County and West Basin in Los Angeles County 17^+ ko Projected Values of Net Unit Urban Water Use (in Gallons Per Capita Per Day) 175 Ul Projected Values of Net Unit Urban Water Use (in Acre-feet Per Capita Per Year) .......... 177 i*-2 Projected Net Urban Water Requirements in Southern California Service Areas I80 ^3 Derived Values of Net Unit Urban Water Use 181 kk Estimated Mean Annual Unit Values of Water Use on Irrigated Lands 183 45 Projected Requirements for Water by Irrigated Agriculture in Southern California Service Areas .... I86 k6 Water Requirements, Local Water Supplies, Supplemental Water Requirements, and Growth in Demand for Imported Water in the Southern California Area . I89 XX TABLES Table No . Page ^+7 Historical and Projected Growth in Annual Economic Demand for Imported Water I90 ^4-8 Water Requirements, Local Water Supplies, Supplemental Water Requirements, and Grovrth in Demand for Imported Water in the Southern California Coastal Plain and Coastal San Diego Service Area 193 k^ Economic Demand for Imported Water by Elevation Zones in the Southern California Coastal Plain and Coastal San Diego County Service Area in the Year 2020 19^+ 50 Water Requirements, Local Water Supplies, Supplemental Water Requirements, and Growth in Demand for Imported Water in the Present Area of The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California 197 51 Water Requirements, Local Water Supplies, Supplemental Water Requirements, and Growth in Demand for Imported Water in Coastal Los Angeles County . 200 52 Water Requirements, Local Water Supplies, Supplemental Water Reqviirements, and Growth in Demand for Imported V/ater in Orange County 201 53 Water Requirements, Local Water Supplies, Supplemental Water Requirements, and Growth in Demand for Imported Water in Coastal Riverside County 202 5U Water Requirements, Local Water Supplies, Supplemental V/ater Requirements, and Growth in Demand for Imported Water in Coastal San Bernardino County 203 55 Water Requirements, Local Water Supplies, Supplemental Water Requirements, and Growth in Demand for Imported Water in Coastal San Diego County and Southwestern Riverside County 204 56 Water Requirements, Local Water Supplies, Supplemental Water Requirements, and Growth in Demand for Imported Water in the Ventura County Service Area 207 57 Water Requirements, Local Water Supplies, Supplemental Water Requirements, and Grovrbh in Demand for Imported Water in the Santa Barbara Service Area 210 TABLES Table No . Page 58 Water Requirements, Local Water Supplies, Supplemental Water Requirements, and Growth in Demand for Imported Water in the San Luis Obispo Service Area 212 59 Water Requirements, Local Water Supplies, Supplemental Water Requirements, and Growth in Demand for Imported Water in the Antelope -Mo jave Service Area 2li+ 60 Urban Water Requirements and Growth in Demand for Imported Water in the Whitewater-Coachella Service Area 2l6 61 Water Requirements, Local Water Supplies, Supplemental Water Requirements, and Growth in Demand for Imported Water in the Kern County Service Area 220 62 Classification of Irrigable and Habitable Lands in San Luis Obispo County 253 63 Classification of Irrigable and Habitable Lands in Santa Barbara County 25U 64 Classification of Irrigable and Habitable Lands in Ventura County 255 65 Classification of Irrigable and Habitable Lands in Coastal San Diego County 256 66 Classification of Irrigable and Habitable Lands in Coastal Riverside County 259 67 Classification of Irrigable and Habitable Lands in Coastal San Bernardino County 26l 68 Classification of Irrigable and Habitable Lands in the Kern County Service Area 262 69 Classification of Irrigable and Habitable Lands in the Antelope -Mo jave Service Area 263 70 Present Land Use in the San Luis Obispo Service Area . . . 265 71 Present Land Use in the Santa Barbara Service Area .... 266 72 Present Land Use in Ventura County Service Area 267 XI TABLES Table No . Page 73 Present Land Use in Coastal Los Angeles County 268 7^ Present Land Use in Orange County 269 75 Present Land Use in Coastal Riverside County 270 76 Present Land Use in Coastal San Bernardino County .... 271 77 Present Land Use in the Kern County Service Area 272 78 Present Land Use in the Antelope -Mo jave Service Area . . . 273 79 Present Land Use in the Whitewater-Coachella Service Area . 27^+ 80 Historical and Projected California Gross Reproduction Rates 276 81 Historical and Projected California Gross Reproduction Rates and Age-Specific Birth Rates 277 82 Projected Five -Year Survival Rates for the United States Population 278 83 Projected Five -Year Survival Rates for the California Population 279 8U Birth Computations for Median United States Population Projection 28l 85 Estimated and Projected Total Population of the United States, by Age Group 1955 to 2020, (Median Projection) 283 86 Estimated and Projected Male Population of the United States, by Age Group 1955 to 2020, (Median Projection) 28U 87 Estimated and Projected Female Population of the United States, by Age Group 1955 to 2020, (Median Projection) 285 88 Estimated and Projected Total Population of California, by Age Group 1955 to 2020, (High Projection) 287 xli TABLES Table No . Page 89 Estimated and Projected Total Population of California, ty Age Group 1955 to 2020, (Median Projection) 288 90 Estimated and Projected Total Population of California, by Age Group 1955 to 2020, (Low Projection) 289 91 Projected Regional Distribution of Population of California 291 92 Historical and Projected Distribution of Population in the Nine Southern California Coimties 29^4- 93 Historical and Projected Employment in the United States 3OO 9*+ Historical and Projected Employment in California 302 95 Historical ajid Projected Employment in the- Southern California Region 30^4^ 96 Historical and Projected Market Demand for and Production of Major Southern California Crops 307 97 Derivation of Unit Residual Annual Income for Payment for Irrigation Water and Farming Incentive by Principal Crops in the San Luis Obispo Service Area 309 98 Derivation of Unit Residual Annual Income for Payment for Irrigation Water and Farming Incentive by Principal Crops in the Santa Barbara Service Area 311 99 Derivation of Unit Residual Annual Income for Payment for Irrigation Water and Farming Incentive by Principal Crops in the Ventura County Service Area 313 100 Derivation of Unit Residual Annual Income for Payment for Irrigation Water and Farming Incentive by Principal Crops in Coastal Los Angeles County and Orange County 315 Xlll TABLES Table No . Page 101 Derivation of Unit Residual Annual Income for Payment for Irrigation Water and Farming Incentive by Principal Crops in Coastal San Bernardino County . . . 3l6 102 Derivation of Unit Residual Annual Income for Payment for Irrigation Water and Farming Incentive by Principal Crops in Coastal Riverside Covuity 3l8 103 Derivation of Unit Residual Annual Income for Payment for Irrigation Water and Farming Incentive by Principal Crops in Coastal San Diego County 320 lOU Derivation of Unit Residual Annual Income for Payment for Irrigation Water and Farming Incentive by Principal Crops m the Antelope-Mojave Service Area 322 105 Derivation of Unit Residual Annual Income for Payment for Irrigation Water and Farming Incentive by Principal Crops in the Kern County Service Area . . . 323 106 Derivation of Annual Return to Investment for Irrigated Crops in the San Luis Obispo Service Area . . . 32? 107 Derivation of Annual Return to Investment for Irrigated Crops in the Santa Barbara Service Area . . . 328 108 Derivation of Annual Return to Investment for Irrigated Crops in the Ventura County Service Area . . . 329 109 Derivation of Annual Return to Investment for Irrigated Crops in Coastal Riverside County 330 110 Derivation of Annual Return to Investment for Irrigated Crops in Coastal San Diego and Southwestern Riverside Counties 331 111 Derivation of Annual Return to Investment for Irrigated Crops in the Kern County Service Area ..... 332 112 Projected Net Acreages of Irrigated Crops in the San Luis Obispo Service Area 335 113 Projected Net Acreages of Irrigated Crops in the Santa Barbara Service Area 335 xiv TABLES Table No . Page lli^ Projected Net Acreages of Irrigated Crops in the Ventura County Service Area 336 115 Projected Net Acreages of Irrigated Crops in Coastal Los Angeles County 336 116 Projected Net Acreages of Irrigated Crops in Orange County 337 117 Projected Net Acreages of Irrigated Crops in Coastal San Bernardino County 337 118 Projected Net Acreages of Irrigated Crops in Coastal Riverside County . 338 119 Projected Net Acreages of Irrigated Crops in San Diego and Southwestern Riverside Counties 338 120 Projected Net Acreages of Irrigated Crops in the Antelope -Mo jave Service Area 339 121 Projected Net Acreages of Irrigated Crops in Kern County Service Area (San Joaquin Valley) 339 122 Projected Net Acreages of Irrigated Crops in the Upper Antelope Plain Area of Kern County 314-0 123 Projected Net Acreages of Irrigated Crops in the Avenal Gap to Pumping Plant In -II I Area of Kern County 3IJ.O I2U Projected Net Acreages of Irrigated Crops in the Pumping Plant In-III to Pumping Plant In-IV Area of Kern County 3I1I 125 Projected Net Acreages of Irrigated Crops in the Pumping Plant In-IV to Pumping Plant In-VI Area of Kern County 3^1 XV FIGURES Following Figure No . page 1 Frequency of Distribution of Levels of Water Costs to Urban Consumers 39 2 Frequency of Distribution of Levels of Water Costs to Agricultural Consumers 39 3 Historical and Projected National Gross Reproduction Rate in the United States 59 h- Historical and Projected Correlation of Age-Specific Birth Rates and Gross Reproduction Rate in the United States 59 5 Historical and Projected Population of the United States, California, and Nine Southern California Counties 72 6 Region of Birth of United States Natives Migrating to California 75 7 Historical and Projected Sources of Population Increase in California - Median Projection 82 8 Historical and Projected Distribution of Population in California - Median Projection 88 9 Historical and Projected Median Population in California and Selected Southern California Areas .... 95 10 Projected Relative Distribution of Population of Nine Southern California Counties 95 11 Historical Relative Distribution of Population Density in the Los Angeles Area by Decade as a Function of Distance Zone 102 12 Historical Relative Distribution of Population Density in the Los Angeles Area by Distance Zones as a Function of Time 102 13 Relationships Between Population Density, Distance, and Time, in the Los Angeles Area 103 14 Comparison of Changes in California and United States Employment in Selected Manufacturing Growth Industries . 115 15 Projected Areas of Irrigated Crops in the Southern California Area 15^ XVI FIGURES Following Figure No . Page 16 Monthly Water Production, Monthly Mean Temperatures, and Monthly Precipitation for City of Alhambra I56 17 Relationship Between Unit Urban Water Use and Urban Family Incomes in 1950 159 18 Historical and Projected Unit Values of Urban Water Use for Southern California Areas I66 19 Projected Growth in Demand for Siirplus Northern California Water in Southern California Areas I9I 20 Historical and Projected Growth in Demand for Imported Water in Present Metropolitan Water District Service Area 197 21 Relationship Between Irrigated Area, Demand for Irrigation Water, and Price of Imported Water, San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties 225 22 Relationship Between Irrigated Area, Demand for Irrigation Water, and Price of Imported Water, Ventura, Coastal Riverside, and San Diego Counties . . . 225 23 Relationship Between Irrigated Area, Demand for Irrigation Water, and Price of Imported Water, Kern County Service Area 225 PLATES Plate No. 1 Location of Investigational Area 2 Boxindaries of Service Areas and Subionits 3 Present and Potential Land Classification and Estimated Expansion of Urban and Irrigated Lands, 1958 Through I98O xvii ACKNOWLEDGMENT The Department of Water Resources acknowledges the information, advice, and opinions which were obtained d\iring the course of the investi- gation from hundreds of persons and organizations. On the governmental level, assistance was obtained from numerous departments of the cities, counties within the area, and from water districts serving the southern California area as well as from state and federal agencies. In addition to this valuable assistance from govemmiental agencies, the Department received considerable cooperation from individuals connected with banking institutions and private industry and from operators of farms who contributed information on crop production costs. Space does not permit the listing of all these persons, but their assistance and cooperation is gratefully acknowledged. Attachment No. 1 lists the principal organizations and persons who materially contributed to this investigation. XVI 11 CONSULTANTS To assist the Department in its investigational activities connected with projections of future urban and agricultural growth, several consultants were retained to advise on specific fields of the studies. Mr. Van Be\iren- Stanbery of San Francisco, Economic and Population Consultant, participated in the population and employment studies from their inception, provided invaluable infonnation on methodology and source material, and analyzed the results of these studies. Dr. David Weeks, Professor of Agricultural Economics Emeritus, Universi,ty of California, Berkeley, assisted in all phases of the agricultural studies and, in addition, commented on the popu- lation and economic projections. Dr. E. T. Grether, Dean of the Graduate School of Business Administration, University of California, Berkeley, advised on procedures, sources, and scope of the investigations of economic and employment growth, and assisted in evaluations of the results. These consultants prepared statements on their participation in the investigations which were presented to the California Water Commission on December 5^ 1958. Dr. Weeks subsequently modified his statement in a letter to the Director of Water Resources, and this letter, together with the statements of I«Ir. Stanbery and Dr. Grether, are reproduced in Attachment No. 2. Dr. Milton S. Baum of Sacramento State College was employed as a consultant to prepare, with staff assistance, a report on the market outlook for California crops. This report has not been published, but data therefrom have been utilized in the studies of agricultural growth and are reproduced in this report. Dr. Baum was not required to submit any statement on his activity in preparing the market outlook report. XIX ORGANIZATION CALIFORNIA WATER COMIOSSION James K. Carr, Chairman, Sacramento William H. Jennings, Vice Chairman, San Diego John W. Bryant, Riverside Arnold Frew, King City John P. Bunker, Gustine John J. King, Petaluma George C. Fleharty, Redding Marion R. Walker, Vent\ira Kenneth Q. Volk, Los Angeles George B. Gleason Chief Engineer William M. Carah Executive Secretary XX ORGANIZATION STATE DEPARTMEH^T OF WATER RESOURCES Hai^ey 0. Banks Director Ralph M. Brody Deputy Director William L. Berry Chief, Division of Resources Planning Walter G. Schulz Chief, Division of Design and Construction SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DISTRICT Max Bookman District Engineer This appendix was prepared under the direction of Robert M. Edmonston Principal Hydraulic Engineer Lucian J. Meyers Principal Hydraulic Engineer Activities relating to projections of population and economic demand for water were performed under the supervision of Vernon E. Valantine Senior Hydraulic Engineer by Clyde B. Arnold Associate Hydraulic Engineer Jack D. Walker Associate Hydraulic Engineer Ronald C. Hightower Associate Hydraulic Engineer Charles H. Gardner Assistant Hydraulic Engineer Thomas N. Hushower Junior Civil Engineer Joe S. Hanashiro Engineering Aid Joseph M. Gonzales Geologic Aid Marvin Schulhof Engineering Trainee Agricultural economic studies were performed under the supervision of Lloyd B. Shinn Senior Economist T3y Gerald F. Miller Assistant Economist J. Warren Gardner Assistant Civil Engineer Alvin B. Bergl\md Assistant Economist XXI studies in the San Joaquin Valley portion of Kern County were performed hy the Division of Resources Planning in Sacramento under the direction of Albert J. Dolcini Principal Hydraulic Engineer Under the supervision of Wesley E. Steiner Supervising Hydraulic Engineer Roderic L. Hill Senior Economist Cole R. McClure Senior Engineering Geologist John W. Shannon Supervising Land and Water Use Analyst Arth\ir J. Inerfield Senior Civil Engineer, Water Quality Section Paul L. Barnes Chief, Division of Administration Porter A. Towner Chief Co\msel Isabel C. Nessler Coordinator of Reports xxii CHAPTER I. INTRODUCTION AND CONCLUSIONS In furtherance of the Feather River and Delta Diversion Projects, detailed studies have been conducted to select the location of the aqueduct which would best serve the vast and ever-growing metropolitan areas of southern California. The results of these studies are reported in Bulletin No. 78, entitled "Investigation of Alternative Aqueduct Systems to Serve Southern California", dated December 1, 1959- The contents of this appendix support the conclusions and present detailed data on the information summarized in Chapter II of Bulletin No. ^8, entitled "Economic Demand for Imported Water". The determination of the proper location and capacity of an aqueduct system necessitates estimates of when and where water would be needed and the rate of growth in demand therefor after it has been intro- duced. The economic demand for water, which is related to the ability of project beneficiaries to pay the cost for such water, is dependent upon the cost of serving such supplies, which in turn is affected by the location and capacity of the aqueduct system. Thus, economic demand for imported water becomes an important factor in the determination of the proper location and capacity for an aqueduct system. Results of these water demand studies are also used to test the financial feasibility and economic justification of the aqueduct system and the timing of construction of initial and subsequent units of the system. Authorization for Investigation Statutory authorization of the Feather River and Delta Diversion Projects is contained in DiV-ision G, Article 9*5^ of the California Water Code. This investigation was originally authorized and funds appropriated therefor by the Legislature in 1956. The Legislatures of 1957 and 1958 subsequently appropriated additional funds for continuation and completioQ of the investigation. At the same legislative session that this investi- gation was authorized, Senate Concurrent Resolution No. 19 was passed which directed the then Division of Water Reso\arces of the Department of Public Works to study routes through San Bernardino and Riverside Counties in connection with its investigation of alternative aqueduct routes to San Diego County and to report thereon to the Legislature in 1957 • Scope of Investigation The scope of the investigation was directed towards providing estimates of the economic demand for imported water in southern California. These estimates were made for a period of time extending sufficiently far into the future, so as to develop the magnitude and character of relatively long-term water needs. The period so chosen was from the present to year 2020. A period of analysis of considerable length is required to assure proper selection of the economic size and location of ein aqueduct system to serve the investigational area which comprises the water deficient south- westerly portion of California. -2- The area, herein called the southern California area, includes the west and southerly portions of Kern County, San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Orange Counties, the coastal segments of Los Angeles, Riverside San Bernardino, and San Diego Counties, together with the Antelope -Mo jave and Whitewater-Coachella desert areas. The general location of the area is shown on Plate 1, "Location of Investigational Area". Determination of the economic demand for water in this area necessitated consideration of both the probable growth of population and related industry and commerce, as well as future changes in irrigated agriculture. The population and economic studies included evaluations and projections of national and regional data as well as State and local data, and the agricultxxral studies emphasized local factors while including considerations of national markets for products and the competition therefor. Estimates of the forecast water needs for these basically different purposes were arrived at by analyzing individual subunits of the area which are as small geographically as was deemed practicable. The l86 subunits which were investigated within the southern California area are shown on Plate 2, entitled "Boiindaries of Service Areas and Subunits". These sub- units were subsequently grouped into the water service areas as shown on the plate. The southern California area as shown on Plate 2 comprises an area of about 30,000 square miles with a present population of about 8.7 million, over half that of the State. It has a present irrigated area of l.i+ million acres which produces agricultxiral products with a gross value in excess of one billion dollars. The area offers extreme contrasts in development. -3- varying from the rich agricultural valley lands of Kern County to the highly industrialized and rapidly growing metropolitan centers of Los Angeles and San Diego. The southern California area is a major contributor to the nation's economy. In the United States during 1956> only the States of California and Texas had a mineral production valuation greater than that of this area. In 1957> the southern California area produced minerals valued at nearly $1.3 billions or 78 per cent of the State total. In maniifacturing, the area's nearly 900^000 employees represented over five per cent of manufacturing employees in the United States in 1957 • From 19^9 "to 1957> manufacturing employment in the area increased IO7 per cent while United States manu- factiiring employment increased only 18 per cent. The financial strength of the area is indicated by the feict that 1957 taxable sales exceeded 8 billion dollars and the center of the area, the Los Angeles metropolitan area, svirged past the Chicago metropolitan area to become the second largest retail center in the nation. Water Supply Conditions in Southern California Area With a few exceptions, local water reso\irces in the southern California area are fully developed. South of the Tehachapi Mountains, local water supplies are a\agraented by importations from the Owens -Mono Basin by the City of Los Angeles and from the Colorado River by The Metro- politan Water District of Southern California. In the San Joaquin Valley, the Central Valley Project of the United States Bvireau of Reclamation supplies water from the San Joaquin River to the eastern portions of Kern County. Despite the existence of these great projects, the economic development of a substantial portion of the west side of the San Joaquin Valley is either subsisting on ground water overdrai't or development nas not been possible through the lack of a water supply. Annual overdraft in the southern California area aggregates about one million acre -feet, con- sisting of approximately 300,000 acre-feet in the South Coastal Area, 100,000 acre-feet in the Antelope -Mo jave Service Area, between 4o,000 and 80,000 acre-feet in the Whitewater -Coachella Service Area, and 5^0,000 acre- feet in the Kern County Service Area. There is an increasing public awareness of these dwindling groimd water reserves. Continuing and progressive lowering of groiind water levels with increased pumping costs, intrusion of sea water in coastal areas, ajid physical exhaustion of water in other areas have stimulated an ever increasing use of imported water, where available. South of the Tehachapi Moxintains this has been reflected in continued annexations to The Metropolitein Water District of Southern California. Restrictions on use of local ground water supplies by both voluntary action and court decree have been effected in a few areas, and in such cases, supplemental water demands are met through the increased use of imported water. The claimed rights of The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California to waters of the Colorado River amount to 1,212,000 acre-feet per annum. In 1950-51, the District sold l67,000 acre-feet of water to its member agencies. In 1957-58, sales of Colorado River water by the District had increased to about 51+0,000 acre -feet, which represents an average annxial increase of about 53^000 acre -feet. It is apparent that the Colorado River supply will be put to full use in the near futxire and that an additional source of water will be needed in the Metropolitan Water District service area. Further, Colorado River water is not available to all areas of need south of the Tehachapi Mountains, including Ventura County, or to the coastal counties of Saxita Barbara and San Luis Obispo. In portions of these areas, supplemental imported water could be utilized at the present time. A similar situation prevails in Kern County, where the stability of the existing economies of the Seraitropic Water Storage District emd the Wheeler Ridge -Maricopa Water Storage District is dependent on the availa- bility of imported water in the near future. Central Valley Project water is not available to these areas, as the full supply of the Priant-Kem Camal is already committed to a service area situated along the eastern side of the valley. It is interesting to note that ground water pumping lifts in much of southern Kern County presently exceed lifts that prevailed in the north- eastern portions of the county at the time that imported water was intro- duced via the Friant-Kem Canal. The varying water supply conditions existing throughout the southern California area may be grouped into eight different situations. These situations and the possible effects of the prevailing water supply conditions on the probable fut\ire demand for imported water are discussed briefly in the following paragraphs: 1. Inadequate or no surface or groiind water supplies are available, which condition occurs in the Antelope Plain in Kern County and portions of Santa Barbara and Ventura Coimties. These Eireas are restricted to an economy based upon dry-land grazing of livestock and dry-land farming until the time that imported water supplies become available. The Targe potential for growth of irrigated agriculture in the Antelope Plain and large potential for growth of urban centers in the other areas is dependent upon the availability of imported supplies. 2. Local surface and ground water supplies essentially are fully developed with the existing level of economic development dependent on a continuing supply of imported water from presently adequate sources. This is the situation in San Diego and southwestern Riverside Counties. Large portions of these areas are irrigable but little irrigation was practiced until the very recent advent of imported water supplies with the result that there is a very large potential for increase in irrigation within the area. The future growth of the areas and the stability of the existing economy, both urban and agricultural, is largely dependent on the continuing availability of imported water. 3. Ground water is available with extractions less than safe yield, a condition which presently exists in the Upper Salinas and Lompoc Valleys. Both urban and agricultural growth in these areas generally will be unaffected by lack of imported water supplies in the near future. After local urban and agricultural growth utilizes the full potential of all local water supplies, further growth will be dependent upon imported water. h. Local surface supplies are fully utilized and extrac- tions from ground water are exceeding safe yield with no source of supplemental water presently available. This occurs in the Antelope-Mojave Service Area, Santa Maria Valley, and portions of Kem County. Realization of the full growth potential of these areas is dependent upon the availability of imported water. If imported water is not available prior to the time that ground water supplies reach the limit of economic pvimping lifts or are fully depleted, the present economic str\ictures will be seriously impaired. 5. Local surface supplies are fully utilized and extrac- tions from ground water are exceeding safe yield with some imported water from a presently adequate source being used. This condition exists in the Central Basin area of Los Angeles County. As imported supplies are now available and being used to some extent, the present overdraft will probably continue for some years into the future until extractions are limited due to recognition of the impending danger to utility of the ground water basins, either voluntarily or by court action. The extent to which future water supplies are obtained by overdrawing ground water will affect the demand for imported water. 6. Extractions from ground water are exceeding safe yield and development of limited additional surface water supplies is a feasible possibility, as in portions of San Luis Obispo and Ventura Counties. The potential for future development of local surface water supplies decreases the q\iantities of imported water which would otherwise be necessary. As the utilization of these supplies is dependent upon local initiative, assumptions of the quantities and timing of development of local water supplies are required. These assumptions affect the design of aqueducts to carry imported water to these areas, and this condition should be recognized. 7. Extractions from ground water are exceeding safe yield with imported water from a presently adequate source being available but unused. This condition exists in certain areas in coastal Los Angeles, San Bernardino sund Riverside Counties. These areas, adjacent to the Metropolitan Water District, could obtain imported water by following the procedures necessary for joining this District at this time. All futvire demands for imported water will be affected by the assumption followed in considering when, if ever, the vario\is areas will join this District. 8. Utilization of local ground water is limited by court decree, stipulation, or by voluntary action with supplemental water requirements being met either partially or completely with imported water. This occurs in the West Coast Basin and Raymond Basin Area in Los Angeles County, and in the greater portion of Orange County. All water requirements in these areas in excess of allowable extractions as determined by stipulations, court decrees, and by local agencies are being met by purchases of imported water in the respective areas. Prior Report In compliance with Senate Concurrent Resolution No. 19 and with Item 419.5 of the Budget Act of 1956, the Department pursued an accelerated program of investigation and published in the spring of 1957, Bulletin No. 6I, "Feather River Project - Investigation of Alternative Aqueduct Routes to San Diego County". This report contains projections of population, irrigated agriculture, and water demands for coastal San Diego Co\inty, southwestern Riverside Coiinty, and subunits of these areas. The projected demsinds for imported water reported therein served as the basis for sizing and staging the construction of an aqueduct originating at the westerly portal of San Jacinto Tunnel on the Colorado River Aqueduct of The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California and extending south a distance of about lO^J- miles through southwestern Riverside and coastal San Diego Co\mties. This aqueduct initially would deliver Colorado River water, but at such times as water from northern California becomes available, could also be utilized for delivery of this water. Subsequent to the publication of Bulletin No. 61, The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California and the San Diego Coxmty Water Authority proceeded with the financing and have initiated construction of this aqueduct in general conformance with the recommendations contained in that bulletin. Following the completion of the studies published in Bulletin No. 61, investigations of the future economic demands for imported water in the investigational area have continued. The results of these studies, ajid a summary of procedures and assumptions followed, were presented to the California Water Commission on December 5, 1958> in a mimeographed statement. -9- Additional copies of this statement are no longer available for distribution, but the material contained therein is amplified in this report. As a result of the extensive investigations of the future popu- lation of California and its coiinties pursued subsequent to the studies reported in Bulletin No. 6l, the population projected for San Diego County- has been increased somewhat over estimates set forth therein. However, these detailed studies have indicated that the projected demands for imported water, as reported in Bulletin No. 6l, are still valid. Conduct of Investigation The investigations leading to projections of demands for imported water required both field and office work extending over a period of two and one-half years. The contrasting natxire of various portions of the investi- gational area with respect to available water supply, type of present and anticipated economy, level of existing development, and other pertinent factors necessitated individual and separate consideration of the l86 sub- units of the area. Hundreds of organizations and individuals were contacted throijghout the investigational area and the State to obtain data and opinions relative to the need for water, ability to pay for water, present uses and costs of existing supplies, forecasts of economic conditions as regards specific sectors of industry and agriculture, ajid the industrial and commercial complex as a whole, and other related matters. The organizations smd persons who were of assistance to the Department are listed in Attachment No. 1. -10- Three consultants were engaged to advise the Department staff on those phases of the work concerning the determination of economic demand for imported water. Dr. David Weeks, Professor of Agricultxiral Economics Emeritus of the University of California, was consulted on development of irrigated agriculture; Van Beuren Stanbery of San Francisco, a well-known economist and demographer, advised on the projections of population and employment; and Dr. E. T. Grether, Dean of the Graduate School of Business Administration of the University of California, Berkeley, advised on future industrial and commercial developments. Upon completing the studies, these consultants prepared independent statements svimmarizing their activities with this investigation and commenting on the results. These statements are repro- duced in Attachment No. 2. In 1957 > the Department of Water Resources entered into a contract with the firm of Booz, Allen and Hamilton, Management Consultants, to investi- gate and prepare a report on the economic potential of the Antelope -Mo jave area in Kern, Los Angeles, and Sem Bernardino Covuaties. Estimates of economic demand for water in this area were based in part on data and conclusions contained in this firm's report, published as Appendix A of Bulletin No. ^8, and entitled "Long Range Economic Potential of the Antelope Valley-Mojave River Basin, Janxiary, 1959" • Liaison was maintained with responsible local agencies through meetings with an Engineering Advisory Committee composed of officials and representatives of water agencies and political entities throughout the southern California area. These periodic meetings were held to review the progress and to discuss techniques and procedures utilized in the investi- gation. Valuable advice and comment has been received from this committee. -11- Basic Planning Assumptions Preparation of estimates dealing with events which will occur in the future necessarily contain an element of conjecture. With respect to the nature and magnitude of future development, this element of con- jecture can be minimized substantially by recognition and careful evalua- tion of historical trends and presently established policies and patterns. In developing the estimates of economic demand for water, these trends, policies, and patterns were analyzed separately for the area as a whole and for each subdivision thereof. Based on these analyses, assumptions were developed and employed with respect to future conditions which are believed to reflect policies of reasonableness and conservatism. It is therefore considered that the future conditions predicted for the southern California area have a high probability of occurrence. Moreover, likely variations from the predictions would tend toward increasing rather than reducing forecast water demands. The principal underlying assumptions employed in developing the estimates are set forth and discussed in the following paragraphs: 1. Surplus northern California water is a supplemental and not a substitutional water supply . By this assumption, preference would be given to the utilization of local surface and ground water supplies over northern California water insofar as the use of these supplies indicated economic and/or financial advantage. Thus, it was not arbitrarily assumed that predicted overdrafts, at the time northern California water would become available in various areas, would be immediately overcome by use of this imported water. Rather, individual consideration was given to each area -12- with respect to local attitudes, policies of governing political entities, and costs of continuing the over-exploitation of ground water with resultant hazards. Full recognition was given to conditions extant in those areas where local ground water extractions have now been limited by local voluntary- action or by court decree. 2. A water supply adequate in quantity and quality will be available to meet forecast economic demands . This underlying assvunption is inherent in the preparation of any estimate of water demand. With selection of one or the other of the basic alternative aqueduct routes under considera- tion, i.e., coastal or an inland route, many parts of the investigational area could not feasibly receive water service, or such service would be substantially delayed or more costly. Thus, it was obvious that the magnitude, timing, and rate of growth in demand for northern California water is to a certain extent a function of aqueduct route selection. However, since it is a primary purpose of the over-all investigation to determine the relative costs and accomplishments of the alternative routes and select one route or routes from the alternatives, no presumption as to which route would be constructed could be made. As a result, the basic estimates of growth in economic demand for water in each component service area reflect the assumptions of availability of water from the alternative aqueduct that would provide water thereto at the least cost. In this manner, it was possible to reflect in the comparative analyses of alternative aqueducts differences in meignitude of water service and the benefits arising therefrom. -13- 3. Initial deliveries of surplus northern California water physically could be made to the San Joaquin Valley in 196^ and south of the Tehachapi Mountains and to the coastal counties in 19T0 - The physical availability of northern California water to areas of need in the southern California area and the timing of delivery thereof will be dependent on aqueduct system selection, construction capability, and upon the reconcili- ation of many matters beyond the scope of this report, the outcome of which cannot be forecast at this time. Further, a construction timetable, once established, may be varied by unforeseen difficulties or circumstances. The foregoing assumptions as to time of availability of water are based upon an accelerated construction timetable for the aqueduct facilities which could not be exceeded in any significant degree without loss in efficiency and Increase in cost. It should be recognized that all parts of the coastal counties and all lands south of the Tehachapi Mountains could not possibly be served with northern California water by 1970, nor would all such areas have an economic demand for this water at that time. k. The full cost of water at the main aqueduct involved in deliver - ing water to each service area, including full recovery of capital cost with interest, is the proper basis for estimating economic demands for supplemental water for purposes of aqueduct system selection and preliminary design . The term "growth in economic demand for water" connotes a relationship between demand and price of water. At the present time, the pricing schedule for water to be delivered under the San Joaquin Valley-Southern California Aqueduct System has uot been nor can it now be establlsned. It is not the p\irpose of this investigation to establish a pricing schedule but rather to estimate the -Ik- future demand for water by areas on a conservative basis. The assiimption employed is believed to result in reasonable estimates, particularly with respect to the development of and demand for water by irrigated agriculture. In Chapter VI, there are presented the results of estimates of variation in projected irrigated agricultxiral development with price of water. As stated in the assumption, the price of water was taken as its cost in estimating the growth in demand for imported water. These costs represent, for each area, service from that aqueduct system delivering water thereto at the least cost. The costs used in deriving the economic demand for imported water reported herein are as follows: Cost at the aqueduct in dollars per Service area acre -foot Kern County Upper Antelope Plain l6 Avenal Gap to Pumping Plant In -III 10 Pumping Plant In-III to Pumping Plant In -IV l6 Pumping Plant In-IV to Pumping Plant In -VI 24 San Luis Obispo 26 Santa Barbara 27 Ventura Coxmty 49 Antelope -Mo jave 38 Whitewater -Coachella 52 Southern California Coastal Plain and Coastal San Diego County 43 The method of determining the foregoing costs was presented in Bulletin No. fQ. In addition to these costs, the estimated costs of distribut- ing water within service areas, as reported in Bulletin No. 78^ were reflected in the demand projections. Individual consideration was given to the present service area of The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California with recognition of present pricing policies of the District under the assxamption that these -15- policies would prevail in the future. A direct charge to the user of $30 per acre -foot was assumed in projecting development in the District area. It is assumed that the District would recover the difference between this charge and the $^3 cost of water in the main aqueduct under its present procedvire of taxation, or otherwise. This value represents an estimated average charge that might he assessed in the fut\ire for hoth Colorado Fliver water and northern California water. In the District area, these two sources of supplemental water must be considered together. 5. The full claimed right of The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California to Colorado River water will be available to its present service area . This claimed right amovints to 1,212,000 acre-feet ann\ially. Estimated losses in delivery leave a net amount available for water service of about 1,150,000 acre-feet annually. This supply of water was considered available for use only by the present District agencies and no annexations of additional eigencies were postulated. It is recognized that such annexations may occur, and, if this happens, it will serve to advance the date of full utilization of the Colorado River water supply in the District area. -16- Conclusions As a result of the investigation of the economic growth of demands for imported water in the southern California area conducted as a part of the investigation of alternative aqueduct routes to southern California, it was concluded that; 1. The phenomenal growth of population and industry in recent years in southern California may be expected to continue if provision is made for an adequate supply of water. 2. Surplus northern California water will be required to sustain the economic development of the southern California area after 1970. By that date, only eleven years away, the water needs of expanding population and industry will have fully utilized the entire claimed right of The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California to Colorado River water. 3. The annual supply of 1,800,000 acre -feet of water proposed for delivery to the area south of the Tehachapi Mountains under Feather River Project water right filings will be f\illy utilized about twenty years after the first deliveries are made to southern California. k. By 1980, nearly 17 million of California's projected 28 million persons will live in the nine southern California comities of Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, Ventura, Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo and Kern. This is about twice the present population of these counties. In the year 2020 the population of these counties will have tripled to about 28.5 million out of a projected State population of 56 million. In most of the nine counties, irrigated agriculture will continue to decline as urban areas expand. A significant exception to this would be in Kern Coiinty where an increase in irrigated agriculture of 1+62,000 acres is predicted. 5. Expansion of urban areas will bring about virtual exclusion of agricultural activity in coastal portions of Los Angeles, San Bernardino and Orange Co\inties by the turn of the century. However, southwestern -17- Riverside and coastal San Diego counties, which have been relatively slow to develop because of limited water supplies, are expected to increase from a present irrigated area of 6l,000 acres to about 178,000 acres by year 2020. 6. By 1980, the demand for surplus northern California water south of the Tehachapi Mountains will be nearly one million acre -feet per year. This requirement will rise to 1.75 million acre-feet by 1990 and about 3-5 million acre -feet by 2020, at which time the area will be essentially fuiiy developed. For the present service area of The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, demands for surplus northern California water will be about 600,000 acre-feet in I98O, about 1.0 million acre -feet in 1990, and about 2.0 million acre -feet per year by the year 2020. 7. Demands for siirplus northern California water in the year 2020 will be as follows: South Coastal Area from Ventura County to the Mexican Border, 3,190,000 acre -feet; the Antelope -Mo jave and Whitewater -Coachella Service Areas, 308,000 acre- feet; Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties, 250,000 acre-feet; Kern County Service Area, 1,800,000 acre -feet. .18- CHAPTER II. LAND AND WATER RESOURCES Two of the most basic natural resources of any area are its usable land and available water supplies. As this nation becomes increasingly urbanized, the exploitation of other natural resources, such as timber and minerals, loses its prior significance. At the same time, the major metro- politan centers' futures are becoming more dependent upon the availability of both land for expansion and water to support the resulting economy. In evaluating the economic development of the southern California area, both of these basic natviral resources were investigated. Inventory of Land Resources In addition to the physical availability of land, its topographic and surface soil characteristics must be meas\ired in determining the a<:reages usable for irrigation or habitation. Accordingly, lands within the southern California area were evaluated with respect to their adaptability for various water-using developments. The immediate future patterns of use of the avail- able lands are greatly influenced by the existing type and areal extent of land utilization. Therefore, in addition to classifying lands for their potential use, determinations were made of the present levels of such development. Land Classification All lands in the investigational area were reviewed and classified with respect to their suitability for urban and irrigated agrlcultiaral develop- ment, using standards of classification previously defined by the Department -19- in Bulletin No. 2 and subsequent reports. In general, land classifications determined in connection with investigations for the California water plan were utilized. In San Luis Obispo County, this land classification had been refined as a result of the detailed county-wide water resources studies made by the Department. Where land resources appeared to be critical, i.e., the available usable lands were less than the probable requirements therefor, or where the previous surveys reported in these bulletins did not einalyze the area in the detail required, the lands were reclassified in the field to insure an accurate determination of available acreage for future development, i/'or tnls reason, new surveys were conducted in San Diego County, coastal Riverside and San Bernardino Counties, the south coastal portion of Santa Baroara County and the San Joaquin Valley portion of Kern County, during 1956, 1957, and 1958. Results of the land classification surveys are shown in Table 1 and portrayed on Plate 3, entitled "Present and Potential Land Classification", sheets one to eight. Detailed results of these surveys by subunits are tabulated in Attachment No. 3> consisting of Tables 62 through &). As seen on sheet 7 of Plate 3, a classification of the Whitewater -Coachella Service Area lands was not made. This area encompassed some 85O square miles, most of which are habitable. Inasmuch as only urban expansion is anticipated in this area, and the acreage is adequate for a population of several million, it was concluded that projections of urban population and water requirements did not necessitate a lemd classification survey therein. -20- f^ w 01 0) Q Jh § o a T-l ^ IQ c-j aJ H a) U Dh cri M -P p.^ 0) o s g o M ^ o M 1=^ M CO o r^ to (d Ti cd +^£3 0) o cd ^1 EH r-l aJ aj " -P ■P rH C! O ^ 0) C! -H g 4J ft to P( (h O t:) 0) O r-l CO 0) cd w > hJ 3 dJ 0) Tj I-l cd -p o ■p ^ ;3 CO V " oJ " oj ^ T:) rH ,-H (1) (1) ^ ^ (0 !« -p cd cd Tj r^ Jh " >^ W r-i C to ft -H r-l t:! 0 !>. d CO r-l -H r-l -d -P ft r-l d d o -H Cd (U r-^ ^ r-l C3 CO >i (U to r-J "d rH d Cd cd > rH 13 O •H U) 0) « o o O C ) <> O o o o •V •\ ^ r- m o ro -^ CD rH \o t^ •s •* OJ r-l r<-) o O O <.> c:> O rH VD t>- •\ •\ •\ ai -^ VO r- (^ -d- VO CM ON •s •s •\ rH r-t C\J O O o a C> o G\ J- ro »V •\ •V -4- CO ro VO VO ro 1 OO CO O o 1 o o •\ \.o VD VO MD rH H o „ O o o O -4- r-A Lf\ ON 3 o ON O 1 O 1 VD 1 s r-t r-t o ft Cd cd to 0) cd 0) •H H fH >^ rO < cd < O XI . u •p •P -p 0> CO u> J^ Xi cri cri p •p O O o ;3 r^ CI CI o CO o o 8 o o o c> t-VO CM VO •^ -v •* -* <2 CVl O oo -d- ON J- -* CO no rH H VO 1 1 o o 1 1 o <■> 1 1 J- (3N •\ •\ o t/N VO I^ VO O"! o o o o o o o C) t-VD 00 r- •» •* •» •^ CO 2 u O -P OJ CJ d > CO ^■^ 0) u H rH (1) 0) Cd w hD-P ^ d ifl cd cd U O O O >5 -P O o pq d cd CO o 1 -P VO VO o o CVJ ITN -:t O CVJ o o CVJ r-l VO •\ CVJ o o o o o •\ CJN 1 1 o O o o 1 1 o o o o 1 1 O o t^ f- •* •\ •l •» CO no r-l CVJ rH CVJ 1 1 o O o o 1 1 O O o o 1 1 t~- CO CO no •* •* •^ •V t~- o VO ITN C7\ no -* f- r-\ CVJ no f- 1 t o O o Q 1 1 O O o Q 1 1 -4- -=)- 00 VO •* •^ •* •^ m -* LTN no J- -* C3N rH rH 1 1 o o o O 1 1 O o o O 1 1 (3N CO VO no •* •s »k •* IfN CVJ no CVJ CJn rH r-i CVl rH CVl o o CVJ •V CO no CVJ CO -21- EH W (0 0) Q u §^-^ o crt -d a 0) -H pq c! to C5 -P trt H fl to Tj rH OJ ■P O -P ^ :3 w aJ ■" OJ J-. Ti rH rH 0) (1) ^ ^ (0 d d xi M+i 0) C Crt < ,-t U ^ M rH d CO ft -rl rH -d a> <:kr-i q 0) o -H 3 ■P rH ^ r-l CO CD S d CO rH -H rH TlJ -P ft rH d d o -H Crt > OJ CO ,-1 t:) rH d Crt 03 > '-I d O •H JjO S 8 g 5 1 o o o • •\ •\ »v cu t~- m CO c» CO ,-t r-* cX) r^ •V •s rH rH ^ O O O 1 O O O 1 h- ON O 1 •\ O -4- en h- cvj CO On t- ^ O o O 1 O o O 1 OO rH O 1 •\ •\ •. rH (^J o rH VO o OI rH r-t ^ ^ rH on 8 1 1 8 I MD 1 O 1 •v •\ o\ o o A OO O 1 1 1 o 00 1 1 1 1 1 f- o 1 c^ 1 I^- 1 •\ vo ^ o o c> (> (^J -4- •V *« h- Lr\ ^ r— ,-< 1 o 1 C) 1 ON Lf\ O o X) 1 o 1 1 1 o 1 t 1 o 1 1 •\ en (M O •* r-i 0) rH rH (U U >j Crt > crt crt crt -P cu crt 0) O (U i>.^ ■•-3 O ^v^ O 4J s: ^ Odd) 0) ci> 0) p o (U O -P t) crt O -H ft -rl crt -H ^"S o ^ 0) fi -p d (U d S w d) (U +J 0) -P m H CO ^:S ^ -22- Methods and Procedures . Field mapping was done on aerial photographs having a scale of approximately 1:20,000. Stereoscopes were used to assist the field men in making delineations in accordance with observed conditions. As the appropriate classification for each parcel of land was determined, it was delineated on the aerial photograph. After completion of field mapping on aerial photographs, the delineations were transferred to U. S. Geological Survey quadrangles. This procedure was necessary in order to accurately determine the acreage of the various classifications because of the wide variation in scale of the aerial photographs. Following transfer of the data to quadrangle sheets, the acreage of each of the classifications was determined by cutting the delineated areas and weighing them with an analytical balance. In making the land-classification survey, the lands were segregated into four broad general classifications according to the nature of their expected future development. These four categories are (l) Irrigable Lands; (2) Urban Lands; (3) Recreational Lands; and (k) Lands deemed to be unsuitable for any of the above classes. Detailed descriptions of the classes used in the survey are listed in Attachment No. 1. A brief discussion of the classes follows: 1. Irrigable Lands . The irrigable lands were grouped into appropriate classifications according to their suitability for development under irrigated agricult\are and their crop adaptability. These classes were based, to a large extent, on present agricult\iral practices and provided a direct approach in estimating the future crop pattern. There are many feictors which influence the suitability of land for irrigation development. Some of the indirect ones are those economic factors related to the production smd marketing of climatically adapted crops, location of the land with respect to a water supply, and climatic conditions. Since economic conditions are variable among given areas and are subject to considerable fluctuation over a period of time, no consideration was given them in the determination of irrigable lands. Neither was the -23- position of the lands as related to a water supply, an influencing factor in the classification. However, these factors (including climatic conditions), while not considered in the physical classification of the lands, were very important in determining the probable future cropping pattern as discussed in Chapter IV. Since it is the physical characteristic of the land and the inherent conditions of the soil itself that directly affect the svdtability of land for irrigation development, these were the factors considered in the classification of irrigable lands. This consisted basically of an examination of the soil characteristics and the physiography of the landscape. In dividing the irrigable lands into crop-adaptability classes, they were first segregated into three broad topo- graphic groups; smooth-lying valley lands, gently sloping and undulating lands, and steeper and more rolling lands. Where other conditions were present that affected the suitability of the lands to produce climatically adapted crops, the three broad topographic classes were further subdivided in accordance with the nature of the conditions. These limiting conditions included shallow soil depths, rocklness, high-water tables, coarse textures with a low moisture -holding capacity, very fine textures which limit the effective root depth, and the presence of soluble salts or exchangeable sodium. The character of the soils was established by examination of road cuts, ditch banks, and material from test holes, together with observation of the type and quality of native vegetation and crops. The presence of rock, high- water tables, salinity, and alkalinity were observed. Representative slopes throughout the area were measured with a clinometer to determine their degree of slope. By giving consideration to all these factors, the appropriate crop -adaptability class for each parcel of irrigable land was determined and delineated on the aerial photograph. In certain areas covered by this survey, work done by other agencies was of value in mapping the irrigable lands. The Soil Conservation Service of the United States Department of Agriculture has made detailed land- capability surveys for the soil conservation districts, and the Bureau of Reclamation of the United States Department of the Interior has made land-classification studies in connection with federal reclamation projects. -2k. The siirveys of both these agencies were used to supplement the work of the Department of Water Resources. In addition, the soil surveys of the University of California and the United States Department of Agricultxire aided in the class- ification procedure. Extensive acreages of highly alkaline lands exist in the Kern Coiinty Service Area. As the cost of reclaiming this type of land is an importeint factor in influencing the rate at which development will proceed, samples of alkali soils were subjected to laboratory determinations of their chemical as well as their physical character- istics. Estimates of the quantity of gypsum and leaching water required to reclaim these soils for adaption to the growth of selected agricultural crops, ajid the cost of such reclamation, were then derived by soil technologists. 2. Urban Lands . It was recognized that rather large areas of land would be necessary to accommodate the expansion of urban development resulting from continued rapid increases in California's population as discussed in Chapter III. In view of this, a large part of the area covered by the surveys was placed in an urban class. It is doubtful, however, if agriculture will be entirely replaced by urban development for many years. Seme agriculture still exists in areas where the urbaji pressure is greatest. In classifying and mapping the lands judged to have a potential for intensive urban development, including residential, commercial, and industrial use, no attempt was made to determine which lands (nor in what amounts) might be devoted to any one of these uses. Rather, these lands were classified simply as urban. However, where it was anticipated that futiire urban development would consist primarily of suburban residential areas with few or no industrial or commercial enterprises, the lands were given a suburban classification. This suburbaji class was further subdivided into high and low water-using categories. It was also believed that certain lands would be devoted to a combination of agricultural and residential development with maximum size of individual parcels being five acres, and these lands were so classified. 3. Recreational Lands . In view of the ever-increasing population, it was recognized that there will be a demand for considerable areas for recreational purposes. This is particularly true of the mountainous regions where this type of development is expanding rather rapidly at the present time. The potential recreational lands were grouped in four classes: permanent and summer home tracts; commercial area; camp and trailer sites; and parks. Obviously, all of the mountainous -25- lands are suitable for some recreational use such as hunting, fishing, and other sports of this nature. For the purpose of this investigation, however, consider- ation was given only to those lands where some fairly intensive development might occur which would reqviire water service. Lands deemed to be unsuitable for any of the above classes. These lands are inaccessible wild areas, mountain areas with slopes too steep to be used, areas where soil conditions preclude the use of the land, military reservations, and remote areas that have no natural water supply and will be unable to import water in the foreseeable future. Land Use Surveys were conducted to determine present land use in most of the areas during 1957 and 1958« In coastal Los Angeles County, a survey made in 1955 was available, and in San Luis Obispo County, a 1953 land use suxvey was available. The same general procedures for field mapping and tabulating, as previously described \mder land -classification methods and procedures, were used in making the land-use surveys. Also, comparable general categories were used in grouping the present land uses, namely agricultural, urban, recreational, and native vegetation. In the agricultiiral class, the individual kind of crop was shown and designated as either irrigated or nonirrigated. In the urban and recreational classes, the same breakdown was used as in the land- classification survey, with the present development, rather than the ultimate, being mapped. In Venttira County, however, the land use survey was made by up-dating, in the field, maps containing a cultural survey conducted in 1950> rather than by working from aerial photographs. The various areas of land use were obtained by planimetering these maps. -26- The present land use is shown on Plate 3^ sheets 1 to 8. Detailed resvilts of these surveys by subunits are contained in Attachment No. ^i-, Tables 70 through 79. In the South Coastal Area, the recent surveys show a spec- tacular encroachment of urban land on irrigated, dry farmed, and range lajids since the area was mapped in about 1950 in connection with the preparation of the California Water Plan. Tables 2 and 3^ respectively, present the results of the surveys and the comparisons thereof with the previous surveys. The acreages required for the projected populations and irrigated crops, as reported in succeeding chapters, were located in the service areas for 1980 conditions. This period was selected to show the expected develop- ment of land within several years of the availability of northern California water. These estimates of the approximate location and extent of urban and agricultural land use in 198O are shown on Plate 3 as overlays of present land use and land class. As these estimates demonstrate, most of the habitable land in the Los Angeles Metropolitan Area will have been developed to urban uses by that time. The expansion of irrigated agriculture as stimulated by the importation of water in Kern, San Diego, and southwestern Riverside Counties is also vividly indicated on Plate 3^ -21- 9 4) OOOOOOQOOO oooooooooo Q r-l fH O o 05 4) •H OJ r-^u^ooMDO^^oovDLr^ r- +J +J & 0) ^ O 0) ^H COrHO\ONi-ICOa\OOJirN LTN H > 03 05 OJ 0\-4- J- 1^ OJ oo ^/^cO rH HirNi-lr-lrHr-IO«-lr-4 8888888888 1^ 8 c i" -> ctf U C ,0 05 M3CO (-1 OnOJ ltnvdX) f^-^ vO $ ^ ■xi +J •\*S*\*\«\*\*\*\«>>«S •» c •H L/NOjvo r-ONC^ooo ONCvj o U ;0 ^ o ir\f— OJ t^QO O\Q0 iTNO^rH r-l u •g >> +> •S"\«v*^^-,»**\-.»v •\ TJ ,Q OJCO oOr-i 1-lcO ir\ asm r<^ u^ 05 d 05 3 OJ t^oj a\o ONco t--u\o MD ^ -p -p -p CO H rH (^ r-l 05 o CQ § ^ •H r-l r-l CQ oooooooooo o tJ 03 oooooooooo o 03 OS u r-l ft OOr-foaOMTN-^ r-4f-OU^ OJ ri • ^ 03 03 o •S»*«\»V"t*\»*»\»\*% •\ oS p> OS > ft •H Sh J-O0O_d- r-IOOOJC^L/NOO ITN ■p 4) 43 ft fc O OJ OJ r-l cr-i OJ CVI r-l a o ^ s s 03 w •H o5 03 o d •rl •rl -d 03 OOOOOOOOOO o 1:5 a A1 03 oooooooooo o d & •rl >> >^si CQ ^ pq U f^ONt^O r-< OJ Lr^^-Lf^OJ rH ^ 03 43 U 03 s "■^^ tJ EH o OJJ-OJOJOIrHrHrH r-l o d CQ d 3 -p 3 CQ Q) hO o 03 03 05 s 05 •H o 05 u ^ ^ H 0) 03 OOOOOOOOOO o TZ) o o hO tH ^ OOOOOOOOOO CO o lAoo a\ o OJ OJ t^^ o Q u o5 r-l r-l U M a] •H H -d CO 43 ^ 4) 43 4> ^ Sh 05 c! -P •^•\»\*»**"\»\*\»\»\ •\ d +> u •H •rl > w c ^1 05 03 oooooooooo o 03 3 r-l 05 u < 05 •H ;:! •H 0) u^r-ojojr-iONOJi^vocX) PO •H ^ 05 CQ Ch <<-< a :s o O g 03 C •\ ;Q 05 > o O hO (Q 0) ;:! -P -H OIt--Lf\r-IOJOO?OOrH oo O -p ;3 u Eh CQ P tH 3 > ^ r-l OJ r-l 05 ■p d d a O 2 S O a 03 -p •H •^ o • C5 ■H O d ^4 •H -p d •H •rl ■P o5 CQ 1 iH 03 ^ 05 oooooooooo o h^ s tS o3 05 o5 -p s g 3 o o o o o o o o o o5 43 r-l a d p^ to •H V£) r-l LTN ON-^ OO U> Lr\ d 0) tri +J R CLc a 05 ■P ft •\ -v •v -v •\ -^ "s •\ 05 H CQ 05 p 3 to •H t:) O .-1 OJ r-l o mvo f- J- r-l 03 r-l 03 o d u r-l ITN OO ir\ CVI CO OO r-l ccJ d 05 d 05 -p d 03 C/3 ^ 03 ■p 4) •rl •H O •H OS ■p 05 to 03 OS <^ f- t— r-t^f-cocoi^ CO §& ^ o 43 tr\ l/N LTN LTN UM/N ITN LfN ITN UA ■p 03 d o d > o\ OS o\ OS -, -p •rl s^ •H !-i la 0) 05 03 !>> 43 4) t% 03 -p ^ !>>^ Td ^ ^ >> 0) 43 rH p o5 -P o5 0) 03 •'-3 • ^1 3 03 h> 03 43 U3 H OS >> 3 H <; Q) 03 03 o t:! o OS OS CD 0) t:^ o5 4) ft t:) Lf\ (h o o d o a Jh o •H(i3 o 3a3<;-H en -p 03 03 r-l 43 (J\ 05 a r-l d OS •rl o 43 V r-l 0) t» O O -H O > ^^•H 03 OTiOOH 05 -P 0) •H hO^ •rl •H •H >, r-l ■rl -P •H o t tM ^1 0) f> OJ U O 03 w^ rH 03 05 a 03 0) Tj d M > OCO M •H^^03f^03 ^ a 43 •H •rl 03 ITN 03 a o d ^ d ON >» ft >5d a30)-H03>- 03 a5-P< >i U m n >Xl 05 o5 0) tH 05 O h1 u r-l U 0) c O bO o 43 0) r-l o •rl ^H d -P 03 -O v M t:) +5 oo cJ -p tJ -P r-l •rl Po53o3d>dd!>50 05 d 0) ^ o3 o5 d OS oJ bO O^003-rja5n5-PS ^lOhJOKCOCOd 1 !h hj o5 S t~- CQ s oS :s > 0) 0) C« 03 0) o 3 0) •Hmo5rH r-Hr-lrHOft -p 05 • • • • • =i Ca50)o5a5a5UO hJo53-PbD+J+J+> r-l ? 05 05 P o TS 0) 4) 03 -p4->O3dO3O3O3d03 dddo5a5o5o5a5S-p i^ a5a503O^OOO0)d mw>uoooo«< -28- TABLE 3 COMPARISON OF PRESENT AND 1950 WATER SERVICE AREAS (Values in acres) Region and year of "present" survey Irrigated lands 1950 : Change Present : I95O : present^ Urban lands 1950 : Change Present : I95O '.present San Luis Obispo Service Area - 1953 Santa Barbara Service Area - 1957 Ventura County - 1957 Coastal Los Angeles County - 1955 - 57 Orange County - 1957 Coastal Riverside County - 1957 - 58 Coastal San Bernardino County - 1957 Coastal San Diego County - 1958 Kern County Service Area - 1958 Antelope -Mo jave Service Area - 1957 Whitewater-Coachella Service Area - 1958 26,500 22,500 ( ii,ooo) 4,800 5,600 800 77,900 78,700 800 8,200 12,800 l+,600 115,000 123,200 8,200 25,000 26,100 1,100 li|-2,000 91,700 (50,300) 385,000 457,900 72,900 136,000 101, boo (34,200) 28,000 69,200 41,200 100,000 98,900 ( 1,100) 23,300 29,500 6,200 94,500 85,800. ( 8,700) 34,500 53,600 19,100 64,200 79,500 15,300 51,600 70,800 19,200 296,000 345,400 49,400 16,100 25,600 9,500 9»,tiOO 103,100 4,300 3,900 12,400 8,500 31,800 65,100 33,300 4,200 10,600 6,400 a. Parentheses denote decrease from 1950 to present. -29- Inventory of Water Resources Tne quantities of water needed Dy the southern California area from northern California are a function of the magnitude and dependability of local and imported water supplies, either presently developed or economically feasible of development. Not only does the magnitude of these local and imported supplies control the demands for northern California water but the availability of local supplies, even on a short-term overdraft basis, acts as a stimulus to economic development. Thus, it was necessary to analyze local and presently imported water resources as an important factor in the potential for urban and agricultural growth in each subunit. The development of additional water supplies in the southern California area from other sources than those located in northern California has been suggested. These potential sources of water also have been evaluated in comparison with the utilization of northern California water. Importation from Existing Soiirces Large water importation projects have been constructed in the past and are now delivering water to various portions of the southern California area. The Friant-Kern Canal of the Federal Central Valley Project supplies substantial quantities of water to the north central portion of Kern County. However, water seirvice from this canal is not provided to, nor is contemplated for, the westerly and southerly portion of this county. The Los Angeles Aqueduct, which has been in operation for many years, brings water from the Owens-Mono Basins to the City of Los Angeles. The aqueduct is capable of delivering an average of about 320,000 acre -feet -30- per year and has been operated for the past several years at essentially full capacity. The Coachella Valley County Water District has been distributing Colorado River water to its service area in Improvement District No. 1. Additional quantities of imported water, which would be needed in portions of the Whitewater -Coachella Service Area outside of the improvement district, primarily for urban growth, must be supplied from other sources. Colorado River water is also served to a substantial portion of the South Coastal Area through facilities of The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California. As has been stated, the claimed rights of the District in and to waters of the Colorado River amount to 1,212,000 acre-feet per annum. In 1957 -58j sales of Colorado River water by the District amounted to about 5^0,000 acre-feet. The rights of California agencies in and to the waters of the Colorado River are now in litigation instituted by Arizona. Local Water Supplies Estimates were prepared of the magnitude of present and probable future local water supplies available to each study area and its subunits. Estaimtes were based upon Department of Water Resources bulletins, United States Geological Survey water supply papers, reports of cities, districts, and counties, and any other available data. In addition, a special geological and hydrological investigation was conducted in Kern County to determine local water supplies available therein. This study in Kern County concluded that the Kern River constitutes the principal source of water supply available to the Kern County Seirvice Area. It is at present fully utilized, however, either through direct surface -31- diversion or by piamping from ground water aquifers replenished by the Kern River. Nevertheless, the ground water basin does constitute a temporary source of additional supply as indicated by present extractions being far in excess of natural replenishment rates. To determine the extent of usable water available in subsurface storage within economic pumping lifts, which is a measure of this temporary supply, approximately 1,300 well logs were analyzed in a study of the ground water storage capacity and quantity of usable water in ground water storage in the Kern County Service Area. Storage capacity and availability of water in storage were detemiined for depth zones from the gro\ind surface to a depth of 1,000 feet or to the base of fresh water, which- ever was the shallower. Analysis was extended to this depth in order to encompass probable limits of economic lift. It should be borne in mind that present lifts exceed ^+50 feet in some parts of the study area, and that some farming operations to the north, in the San Luis area, are based on lifts of more than 600 feet. As a result of these studies, the following quantities of usable water supply in storage underlying the service area were estimated: Usable water in storage ( in millions of acre-feet ) 1.8 7.6 13.7 19.6 26. U 32.1 ^5.3 57.^ Depth L zone (in feet ) - 100 - 200 - 300 - UOO - 500 - 600 - 800 - 1,000 -32- The continuation of overdraft pumping was postulated as occurring in other ground water basins throughout the area except where limited by court decree; voluntary action, or where serious damage to the basins would occur. However, this overdraft of ground water basins wherever postulated was not considered as adding to the safe local water supplies but as a temporary alternative to the taking of imported waters. In estimating increases in the safe yield of local water supplies through construction of water conservation works, the following criteria were used in determining the probability of construction of future local development projects: 1. Estimated unit costs of the safe yield from the projects were compared to the estimated costs of imported water. 2. The estimated capital cost of constructing projects were compared with expected future financial capacity of local areas to construct projects. 3. Water rights and court decrees were considered. k. Local attitudes towards financing of works were analyzed. Other conditions that influenced the estimate of quantities of local water supplies available to meet consimiptive requirements included considerations of water quality and salt balance. In certain areas, water quality considerations are overriding in determining the amounts of usable local water supplies. For example, in portions of the San Jacinto Valley of Riverside County, local ground water supplies which are available have such high mineral content that the supplies are not being utilized. In the Whitewater -Coachella Service Area, the lack of hydrologic and geologic data precluded the formulation of estimates of local water supplies. In the absence of estimates of known quantities, it was assumed -33- that urban entities would be able to extract about 12,000 acre-feet per year with the balance of the local water supplies assumed to be available for agriculture. The estimated safe annual yield of present and projected local water supply development by decades for the period 196O to 2020 is set forth in Table h. Values for coastal Los Angeles County include the supply from the Los Angeles Aqueduct estimated at 320,000 acre-feet per annum. It should be noted that values tabulated herein do not include the qviantities estimated to be over-drawn from ground water basins in the future. -3^^- TABLE h ESTIMATED SAFE YIELD OF LOCAL WATER SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT (in thousands of acre -feet per ann\jm) i I960 : 1970" 1980 Area 1990 : 2000 2010 2020 San Luis Obispo Service Area^ Santa Barbara Service AreaS- TOTALS Southern California Coastal Plain and Coastal San Diego County Service Area Coastal Los Angeles Count yb Orange County Coastal Riverside County Coastal San Bernar- dino County Coastal San Diego County TOTALS Metropolitan Water District's Present Service Area^ Ventura Coxinty Kern County Service Area Antelope -Mo jave Service Area Whitewater-Coachella Service Area Regional Plan Association Bulletin No. 87, June, 1957. -5i+- duriag the same period. During this time, many young individuals have experienced an increasing freedom from the burden of care of parents, due to the expansion of the social security program, pensions, and retirement programs. Accordingly, these young persons were enabled to support larger families of their own. The effect of this on fertility rates, however, will probably be short-lived and, after new customs regarding this financial support of parents become universal, fertility rates will either stabilize or decline. In projecting national fertility rates, therefore, even though the country's economy is expected to continue its historic expansion, an assessment of the other factors, when combined with the economic outlook, indicates a long-term downward trend in fertility rates. The levels of fertility expected throiigh the study period were estimated through projection of the gross reproduction rate. This rate is a good measure of the propensity for women in the childbearing ages to have children. The gross reproduction rate represents the number of daughters a hypothetical cohort of 1,000 women entering the childbearing period would have during their lives, if they were subject to a given set of age-specific birth rates*, and if none of the cohort were to die before the childbearing period was completed. However, the direct application of this gross repro- duction rate to the total number of women in the childbearing ages, 15 to kk years old, might result in an erroneous estimate of births. This is due to the interaction of two factors: (l) age-specific rates vary widely *The age -specific birth rate represents the number of children bom annually per 1,000 women in the specific age group concerned. In this study, age- specific birth rates were used by successive five-year-age groups for women between the ages of 15 and kk years old. -55- among the six 5 -year -age groups representing women 15 to hk years old and (2) the number of women in any particular 5-year -age group also varies widely from one 5-year period to the next. Application of 5-year -a^e- specific birth rates to the irregular age distribution of producing women results in a more accurate estimate of the number of births due to a given general level of fertility than would result from the direct use of the gross reproduction rate. Thus, while projections were made of the gross reproduction rates, age-specific birth rates were derived therefrom and used in the population aging process to calculate the number of births. Low, high, and median projections of the national gross repro- duction rate were made as follows, covering the expected range in fertility levels : (1) Low Series - The low series gross reproduction rate was projected by first determining the rate required to main- tain the population at a constant size vinder the projected mortality rates at the end of the period, and then pro- jecting a decline from the present levels to that low level at a rate of decline equivalent to that experienced in the period 1920 to 1930. (2) High Series - The high series rate was based on a continuation of the high rates experienced in the period 1955-57 until 197O. From I97O to 2020, a rate of decline equal to the projected decline in the median rate in this period was projected for the high series. (3) Median Series - It was assumed that the 1950-51 rate was representative of a probable median rate under the median assumptions to about 1975- The rate for this period, which is lower than current rates, was selected as reasonable because: (l) continuing increase congestion in tirbaji areas will tend to change the current favorable social outlook on large families; (2) the current rates are higher than any previously recorded in this century. Projections from this point may be either up, constant, or down. Due to the extremely high current level, the law of probability favors a downward trend; and (3) infant mortality trends favor a declining gross repro- duction rate. As the gross reproduction rate is now -56- above this Ipvel, the rate was projected as declining to this level by 1975' The median rate at the end of the study period was assumed to be slightly higher than that rate which would maintain the population at a constant size under the mortality conditions projected. The rate of decline in the median rate for the period 1975 to 2020 was projected at the I958 to 1975 rate of decline until this final rate was achieved. The national historical and projected levels of the gross repro- duction rate are presented on Table 7 and shown graphically on Figure 3« TABLE 7 HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED NATIONAL GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE (Annual average for five-year periods ) Historical Projections of gross reproduce : Gross : reproduction ,ion rates Period : : : : rates Period : Low : Median : High 1905-09 1,793.0 1955-59 1,700 1,750 1,790 1910-lif _a I96O-6U 1,600 1,700 1,790 1915-19 _a 1965-69 1,500 l,6Uo 1,790 1920 -2lf 1,578.9 1970 -7 i+ 1,400 1,605 1,765 1925-29 l,i^01.2 1975-79 1,300 1,570 1,715 1930-3^+ 1,108.0 1980 -8U 1,200 1,515 1,665 1935-39 1,101.0 1985-89 1,200 l,i+65 1,615 1940 -lj-4 1,227.6 1990-91+ 1,200 1,1+10 1,565 19^5-^9 l,if52.8 1995-99 1,200 1,360 1,515 1950-5^+ 1,623.8 2000-OU 1,200 1,305 1,465 2005-09 1,200 1,250 1,415 2010-lU 1,200 l,2i+0 1,365 2015-19 1,200 1,21+0 1,315 Data unavailable. -57- Excellent data on age -specific birth rates and gross repro- duction rates were available for the period 19^0 to 1956, which data were used in deriving correlations between these two indicators of births. During this period of time, the gross reproduction rate fluctuated over the entire range of values covered in the forecast rates, as shown on Figure 3. The historical and median projection of these data for the United States are tabulated on Table 8, and the correlation thereof is demonstrated graphically on Figure h. -58- TABLE 8 HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED NATIONAL GROSS REPRODUCTION RATES AND AGE-SPECIFIC BIRTH RATES Gross : Year : reproduction : : rates : Age-specific birth rates by five-year age groups 15-19 : 20-24 : 25-29 : 30-3^ : 35-39 : 40-4^ Historical, by years 19^+0 1,121 5U.I 135.6 122.8 83.4 46.3 15.6 I9iti 1,168 56.9 1I+5.I+ 128.7 85.3 46.1 15.0 19U2 1,277 61.1 165.1 II+2.7 91.8 47.9 14.7 19^3 1,323 61.7 l6i+.o II+7.8 99.5 52.8 15.7 l9Ui+ 1,21+9 5U.3 151.8 136.5 98.1 54.6 16.1 19^+5 1,212 51.1 138.8 132.2 100.2 56.9 16.6 I9k6 i,i+30 59.3 181.8 161.2 108.9 58.7 16.5 19i^7 1,593 79.3 209.7 176.0 111.9 58.9 16.6 19^*3 l,51it 81.8 200.3 163.4 103.7 5i^.5 15.7 19^9 1,515 83. i^ 200.1 165.1+ 102.1 53.5 15.3 1950 1,505 81.6 196.6 166.1 103.7 52.9 15.1 1951 1,591 86.9 212.0 174.2 108.3 5i^.l 15.3 1952 1,635 85.1+ 218.1 180.4 113.1 56.1 15.3 1953 1,665 87.5 22I+.5 183.8 113.0 57.3 15.5 195^^ 1,723 89.8 235.6 188.5 116.4 58.8 15.8 1955 1,7^^1 89.7 2I+O.I+ 190.8 115.8 59.5 15.7 1956 1,793 94.2 251.3 195.5 116.4 60.3 15.9 Median projection, five- -year annual averages 1955-59 1,750 93.3 21+2.0 19^.2 118.0 59.9 15.8 i960- 61+ 1,700 89.2 233.0 188.2 115.2 58.0 15.8 1965-69 1,61+0 85.0 222.2 181.2 112.0 56.8 15.8 1970-71+ 1,605 82.1+ 216.0 177.0 110.0 56.0 15.7 1975-79 1,570 80.0 211.0 173.2 108.4 55.0 15.7 1980-8I+ 1,515 76.0 200.6 167.0 105.8 53.8 15.7 1985-89 l,i^65 72.6 192.0 161.0 103.2 52.6 15.7 1990-91+ 1,1+10 69.0 182.6 155.0 100.8 51.6 15.7 1995-99 1,360 66.0 174.2 149.8 98.6 50.8 15.6 2000-01+ 1,305 62.1+ 165.0 143.6 96.2 50.0 15.6 2005-09 1,250 59.2 156.8 137.8 94.0 49.0 15.6 2OIO-II+ l,2l+0 58.8 155.0 136.8 93.8 49.0 15.6 2015-19 l,2l+0 58.8 155.0 136.8 93.8 49.0 15.6 -59- California's fertility rates were forecast by extrapolating the historical ratio of California's gross reproduction rate to the nation's rate toward unity in the year 2020. This projected ratio was applied to the projected series of gross reproduction rates for the United States to derive the projected high, median, and low gross reproduction rates for California. As for the United States, the actual numher of births during each five-year span through the study period was computed through a correlation of the gross reproduction rate with specific birth rates by 5-year -age groups of women. Comparison of the idealized correlation curves, Figure U, used in the United States projection, with historical California rates indicated that these ciirves could be used to derive California age -specific birth rates from the forecast gross reproduction rates. The historical and projected ratios between California and the United States gross reproduction rates, and the corresponding projected California gross reproduction rates are presented in Attachment No. 5, Table No. 80. The aige-specific birth rates for California are presented in Attachment No. 5> Table No. 8l. The national and California crude birth rates, which result from the median projection of age -specific birth rates, are tabulated following. It was observed that these crude rates exhibited peaks occurring at 25 -year intervals. The peaks are due to the influence of the large proportions of childbearing women appearing in the population 25 years after the high fertility rates experienced in the decade 19hj-lS3'J. The dips are due to the age and sex group proportions resulting from the low fertility rates experienced in the decade 1930-19'4-0. It can be noted that the fluctuations in these rates are not present in the projected gross reproduction rates. -60- FIGURE 3 \ \ ^, Y \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \* \ \ Jv. \ -^ \ \ \ \ OJECTEO \ \ \ N \ \ 960 AR 2020 EPRODUCTION RATE INTHEUNITED STATES FIGURE 4 SROUP 120 160 C BIRTH RATE :lation of age-specific birth rates n rate in the united states lij 1600 < z o >- o O|400 o K 0. UJ cc V) tn o q: 1200 o \ \ \ \ \ \ 1 \ \ n;^\ T \ r \ \ \ \ ^ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ HISTORICAL PROJECTED \ / 1900 1920 1940 I960 1990 2000 2020 YEAR HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE IN THE UNITED STATES FIGURE 4 1800 40- 44 35-39 T! AGE G 15-19 30 ROUP -34 25-2 9 -f^ UJ 1600 < ^ -U M- J- Z o 1 /..■ '/ /"' /' 1- o y" \ / / o !\ / // / LEGEND UJ ; /■ p / / / CORRELATION OF HISTORICAL / GROSS REPRODUCTION HATE /; AND AGE-SPECIFIC BIRTHRATES ANNUALLY 1940-1956 tn ']■'. 'i - (ft o / \ /''■'/ IDEALIZED CORRELATIONS USED IN PROJECTIONS o '• ' 1 ff 7 / * 1000 AGE-SPECIFIC BIRTH RATE HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED CORRELATION OF AGE-SPECIFIC BIRTH RATES AND GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE IN THE UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES Thus, smooth projections of the 'basic components of change will result in varying rates of population growth as represented by the crude birth rate. Historical and medisin future crude birth rates, average per decade Ratio of United California to Decade States California United States 19^0-50 22.6 22.1 0.978 1950-58 2i^.7 2l|.0 0.972 1950-60 24.5 23.8 0.971 1960-70 22.8 23.0 1.009 1970-80 23.8 23.2 0.975 1980-90 22.6 22.1 0.978 1990-2000 21,2 20.9 0.986 2000-10 19.9 19.6 0.985 2010-20 19.0 18.9 0.995 Mortality- Rates. The mortality rates used in this study we: adopted from rates of nonsurvival used by the Bureau of the Census that were projected to the year 2000 by the Division of the Actxiary of the Social Security Administration. In the past, trends in the nation's mortality rates have been fairly consistent, varying only slightly, from a uniformly declining curve. Forecasts of mortality rates thus exhibit a very narrow range between expected highs and lows. Accordingly, the same series of mortality rates was used for each of the high, median, and low projections. The series of mortality rates used here is the medium series used in projections by the Population Division of the Bureau of the Census, but converted from nonsurvival rates as obtained from the Census Bureau into the form of survival rates. The survival rate represents the niMiber of persons in a particular cohort, or 5-year -age group, surviving through a given five- year time period. It is applied to the total nim.ber of persons in the cohort at the beginning of that five-year period. -61- Thus, smooth projections of the basic ccmponents of change will result in varying rates of population growth as represented by the cnide birth rate. Historical and median future crude birth rates, average per dec ade Ratio of United California to Decade States California United States I9UO-5O 22.6 22.1 0.978 1950-58 2i^.7 2i^.O 0.972 1950-60 24.5 23.8 0.971 1960-70 22.8 23.0 1.009 1970-80 23.8 23.2 0.975 1980-90 22.6 22.1 0.978 1990-2000 21.2 20.9 0.986 2000-10 19.9 19.6 0.985 2010-20 19.0 18.9 0.995 Mortality Rates . The mortality rates used in this study we] adopted from rates of nonsurvival used by the Bioreau of the Census that were projected to the year 2000 by the Division of the Actuary of the Social Security Administration. In the past, trends in the nation's mortality rates have been fairly consistent, varying only slightly, from a xmiformly declining curve. Forecasts of mortality rates thus exhibit a very narrow range between expected highs and lows. Accordingly, the same series of mortality rates was used for each of the high, median, and low projections. The series of mortality rates used here is the medium series used in projections by the Population Division of the Bureau of the Census, but converted from nonsurvival rates as obtained from the Census Bureau into the form of survival rates. The survival rate represents the number of persons in a particular cohort, or 5-year -a^e group, surviving throvigh a given five- year time period. It is applied to the total number of persons in the cohort at the beginning of that five -year period. -61- The projection of nonsiirvival rates by the Social Security Administration was made on the basis of expected improvements through the next forty years in medical science. This was done by setting down for each age-sex group the expected percentage decline in mortality between 1955 and 2000 for the four major cause -of -death groups, converting these percentages of decline into actual mortality rates in the year 2000, and then interpolating between current mortality and these 2000 rates for each intervening period. These assumed improvements in medical science appear to be consistent with the general assumptions made in this report and so the projected rates were adopted intact. Extrapolations were made from these projections for the period 2000 to 2020. The United States survival rates used in the projections are presented in Attachment No. 5> Table No. 82. California's mortality rates were related to the national rates by extrapolating the historical ratio between the California and the United States crude death rates (number of deaths annually per 1,000 population), and applying the forecasted ratio to the projected national survival rates. The historical and projected United States and California crude death rates and ratios thereof are as follows: Historical and projected crude death rates, average per decade Ratio United California to Decade States California United States 191^.0-50 1950-58 1950-60 1960-70 1970-80 1980-90 1990-2000 2000-10 2010-20 10.1 10.il- 9.h 8.9 9.^ 8.9 8.9 8.7 8.5 8.1+ 8.2 8.2 8.1 8.1 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 1.030 .9^+7 .9^+3 .977 .993 .999 1.000 1.000 1.000 -62- The California survival rates are presented in Attachment No. 5^ Table No. ti3. These rates combine the separate forecasts of national male and female siirvival rates for simplicity in application. United States Population Projection High, median, and low population projections were calculated for the United States using the cohort -survival method of demographic analysis, which essentially consists of a step by step growth of the existing population. For a large, confined area such as the continental United States, from which emigration has been relatively small and foreign bom immigration is now closely controlled, the cohort -survival method is considered to be the most accurate means of projection, since it takes into account the vital statistics in their most extensive detail. Fertility and mortality rates were used as previously defined, projections of immigration were developed, the population aged as shown in sample computations, and resultant projections were developed. Immigration . It was assumed that, for the next sixty years, net migration will continue to be positive, or into the United States. It was further assumed that annual foreign bom immigration quotas will be closely controlled by the Federal Government and will be at approximately the same levels as dviring the past ten to fifteen years. The assumed net immigration levels were based on projections made by the United States Bureau of the Census in "Current Population Reports", Series P-25, No. 123, page h, to the year 1975 • Immigration levels for the remainder of the study period were extrapolated on the basis of these projections. The assumed levels of dmrni- gration are: -63- Medisui and High Series Projections 1955 to i960 total net immigration l.k million i960 to 2020 net immigration 1.2 million during each five-year period Low Series Projection 1955 to i960 total net immigration 1.J+ million i960 to 2020 net immigration 1.0 million during each five-year period The age-sex distribution of projected net immigration was based on the distributions experienced in the past several years. The historical data used as a base were taken from "Current Population Reports", Series P-25, No. U3. The historical distribution is for the years 19i<-6 to 19h8 and undoubtedly reflects the influx of war brides during that period. This distribution was adjusted slightly by lowering the percentage of net immigrants in the female age group, 20 to 2k and 25 to 29, to minimize the effect of these war brides on the age distribution of females. It was assumed that immigration occurs at a uniform rate; hence the survival rate for a five-year period could not be applied to the entire group of immigrants for that five-year period. In the interest of simplified computation, the five-year survival rate for each age group was applied to six -tenths of the total immigrants in that age group for that period and no survival rate was applied to the remaining four -tenths of the immigrants. The projected United States net immigration levels and a^e-sex distribution of immigrants are presented in Table 9« -6!+- TABLE 9 PROJECTED UNITED STATES NET IMMIGRATION BY AGE AND SEX (in thousands of persons per five-year period) Age Net male immigration : Net female immigration group Per cent : : Median : Low :Per cent: : Median : Low at date of total: 1955 :and high: i960 :of total: 1955 :and high: I96O of immi- : to : i960 to: to : immi- : to : i960 to: to entry- gration* : i960 : 2020 : 2020 : gration*: i960 : 2020 : 2020 0- k 5- 9 10-lU 15-19 20-2U 25-29 30-3^ 35-39 ko-kk 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+ 2.2 1.5 1.5 2.7 4.8 5.6 5.0 5-1 4.8 4.1 3.0 2.2 1.6 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 30.8 21.0 21.0 37.8 67.2 78.4 70.0 71.4 67.2 57.4 42.0 30.8 22.4 16.8 9.8 4.2 1.4 26.4 18.0 18.0 32.4 57.6 67.2 60.0 61.2 57.6 49.2 36.0 26.4 19.2 14.4 8.4 3.6 1.2 22.0 15.0 15,0 27.0 46.0 56.0 50.0 51.0 43.0 41.0 30.0 22.0 16.0 12.0 7.0 3.0 1.0 2.1 1.5 2.1 5.3 8.7 7.1 5.1 4.4 3.9 3.4 2.8 2.2 1.8 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.2 29.4 21.0 29.4 74.2 121.8 99.4 71.4 61.6 54.6 47.6 39.2 30.8 25.2 21.0 14.0 7.0 2.8 25.2 18.0 25.2 63.6 104.4 85.2 61.2 52.8 46.8 40.8 33.6 26.4 21.6 18.0 12.0 6.0 2.4 21.0 15.0 21.0 53.0 87.0 71.0 51.0 44.0 39-0 34.0 28.0 22.0 18.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 2.0 All ages 46.4 649.6 556.8 464.0 53.6 750.4 643.2 536.0 Total male and female 100.0^ 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 *Based on records of immigration into the United States between July 1, 1946 and June 30, 1948, from "Current Population Reports" Series P-25 No. 43, a publication of the U. S. Bureau of the Census. -65- Computation of United States Population Projection . In this study, the growth rates were applied to five -year -a^e groups by sex. The base population was taken from the Bureau of the Census, "Current Population Reports", Series P-25, No. lU6, Table 1, page T, which tabulated the total United States population, including armed forces overseas as distributed by age and sex, estimated as of July 1, 1955* Each five -year -age group was aged by applying its particular s\irvival rate according to age and sex through each successive five-year period from 1955 to 2020. The same survival rate was applied to six-tenths of the immigrants in that group for that period. The survivors in this group, plus four-tenths of the immigrants in the next oldest age group, would comprise the next oldest age group in the base population for the next five-year period. For example, in the median series projection, the male (10-1^+) age group of the 196O population was aged by five years and became the (15-19) age group in the I965 population as follows: i960 male (lO-l4) base group 8,761,914-9 0.6 X i960 to 1965 male (lO-lU) immigrants 10,800 Multiply by I96O to I965 (10-lU) to (15-19) survival factor x 0.99551 8,733,359 Add 0.1| X i960 to 1965 male (15-19) immigrants x 12,960 Result is 1965 male (15-19) group 8,7^6,319* *The use of this number of digits does not imply this expected accuracy in the projection but was only adopted to maintain the accuracy of the method. -66- Applying this method to each five -year -eige group, male and female in the 5 through 85 plus age groups, results in a projected population at the following five-year point. The size of the 0-k age group for a particular five-year point in time was projected by determining the survivors of hirths during the previous five-year period. First, the average gross reproduction rate during the five- year period was estimated from the projected gross reproduction rate curves on Figure 3. The five -year -age group annual specific birth rates corresponding to this average gross reproduction rate were then taken from the curves shown on Figure h. These annual age -specific birth rates were multiplied by five years and applied to the average number of women for that period in the (15-19) through (i+O-ij-ij-) age groups by respective individual group. These computations and resulting numbers of births are tabulated in Attachment No. 6, Table No. Qk. The total births during the five-year period, determined by summing births in the individvial groups, was distributed by sex in the ratio of 1,055 males to 1,000 females as summarized in Table No. 8h. The (0-U) survival rates by sex were then applied to these births to determine the survivors in the (0-14-) a^e group at the end of the period. The error involved in applying five-year average mortality rates to birth occiirring the latter part of the period was considered negligible since the largest number of deaths in the (O-^) group occurs from age to 1. Projected United States Population . The high, low, ana median projections of population resulting from the application of the cohort - survival method of forecasting is shown in Table 10, together with the -67- numerical size of the components of change. Table 11 and Figure 5 show the forecasted high, median, and low national population, together with historical data from I9OO. The step-hy-step median projection of the United States population by age and sex groups is tabulated in Attachment No. 6, Tables 85 through 87. The median projection closely approximates the tentative national projection furnished by the United States Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, to the United States Army Corps of Engineers, Philadelphia District, which is as follows: National population Year (millions) 1965 195 1980 2I+8 2010 370 This projection is subject to revision up to the date of publication of the Corps of Engineers studies, which is scheduled for December, 1959 • The Bureau of the Census recently published a series of national population projections to 198O in "Current Population Reports", P-25, No. 187, and the high, median, and low projections contained herein are in agreement with the series II, III, and IV projections of the Census Bureau, respectively. -68- TABLE 10 HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED COMPONENTS OF CHANGES IN THE UNITED STATES POPULATION (Values in thousands ) : Population : Total change : during decade; : Natural increase : Year : Births : Deaths : Immigration Historical Components^ 19^0 131,788 19, 3^^^^ 31,913 1U,366 1,797 1950 151,132 Low Projection ( of Component sb 1950 151,683 28,017 39,820 1^^,833 3,030 i960 179,700 25,600 U0,800 17,200 2,000 1970 205,300 27,700 i+5,000 19,300 2,000 1980 233,000 27,000 1^6,500 21,500 2,000 1990 260,000 27,900 50,i+00 2U,500 2,000 2000 287,900 28,i+00 53,800 27,400 2,000 2010 316,300 28,800 57,200 30,i^00 2,000 2020 3^+5,100 High Projection of Ccmponents 1950 151,683 29,217 i+1,087 li+,900 3,030 i960 180,900 33,000 U8,000 17,^00 2,iv00 1970 213,900 ^^3,200 60,500 19,700 2,1+00 1980 257,100 50,200 70,000 22,200 2,U00 1990 307,300 56,900 79,900 25,i^OO 2,1+00 2000 361+,200 62,800 89,300 28,900 2,1+00 2010 U27,0O0 65,800 96,100 32,700 2,1+00 2020 ^92,800 -69- HISTORIC AI. AND PROJECTED COMPONENTS OF CHANGES IN THE UNITED STATES POPULATION (continued) (Values in thousands ) i : Total change : Natural increase " : Year : Population : during decade: Births : Deaths : Immigratioa Median Projection of Components^ 1950 151,683 28,717 i960 180, UOO 29,U00 1970 209,800 37,200 1980 2^7,000 40,900 1990 287,900 i+2,900 2000 330,800 Ui+,ii00 2010 375,200 J+6,600 2020 i+21,800 ho,5hl lU,860 3,030 l+l+,300 17,300 2,U00 5i+,300 19,500 2,1+00 60,500 22,000 2,lj-00 65,500 25,000 2,1+00 70,200 28,200 2,1+00 75,900 31,700 2,1+00 a. Historical population enumerated as of April 1 (total population of continental United States, including armed forces overseas). Source: United States Bureau of the Census publications. b. Projected population as of July 1. Projected population and components of change are frcm the cohort -survival projection (Tables 83, 85, and 86). While values are roiinded to this significance for illustrative purposes, this does not imply an expected level of accuracy in the projection. The 1950 to I96O components are based on 1950 to 1958 estimated annual components of change from the United States Bureau of the Census, "Current Population Reports", Series P-25, No. 173. -70- TABLE 11 HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED POPULATION OF THE UNITED STATES AND CALIFORNIA Year United States population^ California population^ California population in per cent of United States population Historical Population'^ 1900 1910 1920 1930 19^0 1950 1958 75,99^^,575 91,972,266 105,710,620 122,775,01^6 131,669,275 151,132,000 173,i^35,000 1,1465,053 2,377,5^^9 3,1^26,861 5,677,251 6,907,387 10,586,223 114,612,000 1.95 2.59 3. 21+ I+.62 5.25 7.00 8.1+3 Projected Population^ i960 L 179,700,000 M 180,1+00,000 H 180,900,000 15,650,000 15,830,000 15,980,000 8.71 8.77 8.83 1970 L 205,300,000 M 209,800,000 H 213,900,000 20,950,000 21,700,000 22,1400,000 10.20 10.31+ 10.1+7 1980 L 233,000,000 M 2147,000,000 H 257,100,000 26,300,000 28,200,000 30,000,000 11.29 11.1+2 11.67 1990 L 260,000,000 M 287,900,000 H 307,300,000 31,200,000 35,000,000 38,500,000 12.00 12.16 12.53 2000 L 287,900,000 M 330,800,000 H 361^,200,000 36,000,000 142,100,000 1+7,800,000 12.50 12.73 13.12 2010 L 316,300,000 M 375,200,000 H 14-27,000,000 1+0,300,000 1+9,000,000 57,800,000 I2.7I+ 13.06 13. 5^^ -71- HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED POPULATION OF THE UNITED STATES AND CALIFORNIA (continued) Year United States populations- California population^ California population in per cent of United States population 2020 Projected Population*^ (cont.) L 3^+5,100,000 i+U,000,000 M 421,800,000 55,800,000 H i+92,800,000 68,000,000 12.75 13.23 13.80 a. Total continental United States population, excluding Alaska and including armed forces overseas . b. Total California population, including armed forces stationed therein. c. Historical population as of census date. d. Projected population as of July 1, date. Note: L - Low Projection M - Median Projection H - High Projection California Population Projection Population projections on a high, median, and low basis were made for California using the cohort -survival method, as described previously, with minor variations. Migration into California is not controlled; hence the geographical unit of the projection, being the State in this case, is not a completely independent system. Therefore, the same degree of refinement used in the United States cohort -survival projection is not necessary or justifiable in making forecasts for California. The simplification consisted principally of applying growth rates to the total (male and female, combined) population by five-year-age groups up to age 65, while the procedure followed in the -72- FIGURES M NL L \i. LEGEND 1IGH PROJECTION MEDIUM PROJECTION .OW PROJECTION 2000 2010 2020 FORNIA COUNTIES FIGURES — ^ 1 HISTORICAL H _- — ■ .— - -^ ^ UNITED STATES — \ — ;;^__r^ • — - L — ■ \ CS''^ — --^=SJ^^-'"^ t:^^ '^^^1-'^---^ ' _^ ' -— „ DO ' " ii- ■ — — — ^ - " ' __ __ — ^ -^^'^ ____ — — ■ is— -"^ . ■^- ^^^^ . — -"_^ — - — .^ — ' L__jr— — CALIFORNIA- \ ^ — ■ ^^ -^ V'^ i^^ ^^ ^^^ ^ _,„--— /A ^ " \ ^^ ^ 9 SO. CALIFORNIA COUNTIES LEGEND - HIGH PROJECT - MEDIUM PROJE - LOW PROJECT ^ ^^^^ .^ H M ON CTION ^ -^ / L ON ^ / I960 YEARS 1990 2010 2020 HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED POPULATION OF THE UNITED STATES, CALIFORNIA, AND NINE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COUNTIES DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES projection of United States population applied separate rates to males and females by five -year -age groups up to age 85. The fertility and mortality rates previously defined were used. In-raigration to California was projected after investigation of historical in -migration and factors that influenced the rate thereof. In-migration . In studying historical in-migration to California, several conditions were found to have a major influence on in-migration. These are briefly stated as follows: (1) California's physical environment of an excellent climate, good recreational areas, interesting geo- graphical features, and vast usable land areas with present low population densities attracts migrants. (2) Economic opportunities in California are greater than opportunities on a national level, with personal income and plane of living high, good potential for expansion of economic resources, and a large existing and giant potential market for industrial goods with California being the manu- facturing center of the west. Land and other resources are favorable to fiirther industrial location. These economic factors act to attract migrants. (3) The national defense spending policy has resulted in the location in the State of sizable military installations, and the procurement of large percentages of total military aircraft, missiles, and electronics equipment expenditures in the State. With the pools of technical knowledge and labor resulting from this historical develop- ment, this pattern of defense spending should continue and contribute to economic opportunities in California. (U) Growth of the national economy and its resulting advanced technology will allow a wider choice of industrial locations with locations dictated by livability and factors other than transportation and raw materials. With the desirable climatic conditions in California, this will contribute to economic opportiinities in the State. -73- projection of United States population applied separate rates to males and females by five -year -age groups up to age 85. The fertility and mortality rates previously defined were used. In-migration to California was projected after investigation of historical in-migration and factors that influenced the rate thereof. In-migration . In studying historical in-migration to California, several conditions were foiind to have a major influence on in-migration. These are briefly stated as follows: (1) California's physical environment of an excellent climate, good recreational areas, interesting geo- graphical features, and vast usable land areas with present low population densities attracts migrants. (2) Economic opportunities in California are greater than opportunities on a national level, with personal income and plane of living high, good potential for expansion of economic resources, and a large existing and giant potential market for industrial goods with California being the manu- facturing center of the west. Land and other resources are favorable to fiorther industrial location. These economic factors act to attract migrants . ( 3 ) The national defense spending policy has resulted in the location in the State of sizable military installations, and the procurement of large percentages of total military aircraft, missiles, and electronics equipment expenditures in the State. With the pools of technical knowledge and labor resulting from this historical develop- ment, this pattern of defense spending should continue and contribute to economic opportunities in California. (U) Growth of the national economy and its resulting advanced technology will allow a wider choice of industrial locations with locations dictated by livability and factors other than transportation and raw materials. With the desirable climatic conditions in California, this will contribute to economic opportunities in the State. -73- (5) Growth of the national population with resulting nigher population densities in older developments, together with the exhaustion of local natural resources that are necessary for economic growth, will force local out-migration from other parts of the nation. (6) Continuing ease of liquidating fixed assets will increase population mobility as will higher individual earning power. This will remove barriers in the path of migration out of local areas in which the economy is saturated. These factors have acted to draw migrants to California historically and are expected to continue to act throughout the study period. The relative influence of California's attractions, however, on residents in other states is also influenced by their distance from California. Studies made during the last twenty years have established that interstate migrations decline rapidly with distance of movement. Moreover, a large proportion of interstate migrants to California move to other states before coming to California. Because of the relatively small populations of the Mountain and Pacific States (excluding California), natives of the West Central States lying between the Mississippi River and the Mountain States comprised more than ^4-5 per cent of the total net migration to California 1930-19^0 and 19^0-1950' This is graphically shown on Figure 6, and the historical net migration to California by geographical place of birth is tabulated on Table 12. ^ -7k- TABLE 12 HISTORICAL NET MIGRATION TO CALIFORNIA BY GEOGRAPHICAL DIVISION OF BIRTH ( In thousands ) Geographical division of birtha Net California migration during decade*^ I9IO-2OC : Per Number: cent of ; total i920-30c : Per Number: cent of : total 1930-40d : Per Number: cent of : total 1940 -50a : Per Number: cent of : total East 102 12 2il 11 92 8 kk^ lY New England 20 2 U2 2 11 1 oO 3 Middle Atlantic 66 8 i2Y 7 56 5 253 10 South Atlantic 16 2 k2 2 25 2 112 k East Central 192 22 353 19 155 Ik 506 19 East North Central 163 19 296 16 118 11 387 15 East South Central 29 3 57 3 37 3 119 k West Central 223 25 590 31 626 59 1,211 k6 West North Central 168 19 Uoo 21 331 31 517 20 West South Central 55 6 190 10 295 28 69i+ 26 West 79 9 28U 15 157 15 316 12 Mountain 5« 7 209 11 123 12 239 9 Pacific^ 21 2 75 h 3^ 3 77 3 Net Military Movement -- - -- — 65 2 Foreign Bom (Outside U.S.A. )f 285 32 kkk 2k 39 k 115 k TOTAL NWl' CALIFORNIA MIGRATION 881 1,882 1,069 2,658 a. Statistical divisions of the United States defined by the United States Bureau of Census. b. Net migration to California by geographical division of birth. This does not indicate division of residence immediately prior to moving to California. c. Source of estimates, "Statistical Memorandum No. 6, California Migration" of the Population Committee for the Central Valley Project Studies, College of Agriculture, University of California, Berkeley, July 5, 19^*+, by C. Reynolds and S. Miles. d. Estimates by Department of Water Resources based on data on State of Birth of California residents published by the United States Bureau of Census in: 1950 Census of Population, Volume IV, Special Report P.E. No. kA; 19^0 Census of Population, Volume IV, Additional Report T-20; 1930 Census of Population, Volume II, T-21, T-5, T-7. e. Excluding California. f. Source of estimates, "Growth and Changes in California's Population", Warren S. Thompson, Haynes Foundation. -75- Detailed studies were therefore made of the historical net out- migration from states west of the Mississippi River in relation to the then existing economics and of the outlook for their futirre economic growth. Trends of changes in patterns of land use and economic activities in these states were analyzed together with the potential expansion of agriculture, industry and commerce. These studies indicated that many axeas in the western states outside California have relatively large potentials for long-term economic development and population growth. Moreover, with the high projected growth of the national population and probable further increase of mobility, it is expected that out -migration will be accelerated from local areas throughout the Nation having relatively stagnant economies and stationary or declining populations, as indicated in the afore -mentioned factor No. 5« Many of these so-called "permanently depressed areas" are emerging in the densely popxilated Atlantic and East North Central statistical regions. Hence, while a majority of the migrants to California probably will continue to come from west of the Mississippi, the rate of in-migration from states farther east is likely to increase. It should be noted also that substantial proportions of the net in-migrants as tabulated on Table 12 do not move directly to California from their native states, but only after earlier migration to other states. Historical data on the niamber of persons moving between states are available only for the period 1935-19^0 and annually since 19^+7 • Data indicating the change in number of persons bom in one state but living in -76- FIGURE 6 LEGEND % OF TOTAL CALIFORNIA NET MIGRATION 7o °/o % % ■■>•' 1920-1930 NOTE AREAS SHOWN ARE US BUREAU OF THE CENSUS STATISTICAL REGIONS S NATIVES MIGRATING TO CALIFORNIA LEGEND % OF TOTAL CALIFORNIANET MIGRATION % "■/o % % 1 13 ■ m I9i0- 920 1920-1930 1930-1940 940-1950 NOTE AREAS SHOWN ARE US BUREAU OF THE CENSUS STATISTICAL REGIONS REGION OF BIRTH OF UNITED STATES NATIVES MIGRATING TO CALIFORNIA DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES some other state, however, have been reported by each decennial census since 1850. Table 13 shows the statistical relation of the volume of total net in -migration to California to the total net movement of people from their native state to some other state during each decade 19IO-I95O. Table 13 also presents median projections of the similar total net movement of persons from their native state to other states d\u:ing each decade 1950-2020. These projections were obtained by assimiing that the ratio of such movement to the median projection of the population of the United States in age group 20-^^+ years at beginning of the decade would change as shown by the percentages in Table 13 • The assumed percentages were based on expected increases in the propensity and ability of people to move from their native state to some other state, and are consistent with the afore -mentioned detailed analysis of the outlook for future economic growth in the western United States. The projected net in-migration to California, as tabulated on Table 13; was based on the projection of primary interstate population movement and the extrapolation of the ratio between net California in- migration and the primary interstate migration, which is a good indicator of the propensity of persons to migrate to California. As it is recognized that other sources than the primary interstate movement contribute to the net in-migration to California, the analyses made for the economic growth in the western states were also used in projecting the in-migration. As shown by Table 13, the projected ratio of California migration to interstate migration is conservative when compared with the historical ratio and the assumptions of healthy economic conditions underlying the projections. -77- some other state, however, have been reported by each decennial census since 1850. Table 13 shows the statistical relation of the volume of total net in -migration to California to the total net movement of people from their native state to some other state during each decade 19IO-I95O. Table 13 also presents median projections of the similar total net movement of persons from their native state to other states during each decade 1950-2020. These projections were obtained by assuming that the ratio of such movement to the median projection of the population of the United States in age group 20-UU years at beginning of the decade would chajige as shown by the percentages in Table 13. The assumed percentages were based on expected increases in the propensity and ability of people to move from their native state to some other state, and are consistent with the afore -mentioned detailed analysis of the outlook for fut\ire economic growth in the western United States. The projected net in-migration to California, as tabulated on Table 13, was based on the projection of primary interstate population movement and the extrapolation of the ratio between net California in- migration and the primary interstate migration, which is a good indicator of the propensity of persons to migrate to California. As it is recognized that other sources than the primary interstate movement contribute to the net in -migration to California, the analyses made for the economic growth in the western states were also used in projecting the in-migration. As shown by Table 13, the projected ratio of California migration to interstate migration is conservative when compared with the historical ratio and the assumptions of healthy economic conditions underlying the projections. -77- TABLE 13 HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED PRIMARY INTERSTATE MOVEMEMT OF NATIVE UNITED STATES POPUIATION (Values in thousands) Primary int erstate "move- ment of the native United California migration^ States population^ Decade :As a per cent : Per cent Number of : of total Total net :of primary primary : population in-migration : interstate movers :aged (20-1+1+) : migration Historical 1910-1920 5,991 15.7 881 11+.7 1920-1930 7,828 17.9 1,882 2I+.0 1930-19itO ^397 8.9 1,069 2I+.3 191+0-1950 11, 593 21.1+ Projected^ 2,658 22.9 1950-1960 15,250 26.5 3,275 21.5 1960-1970 17-, 200 28,0 3,290 19.1 1970-1980 21, 000 28.6 2,720 13.0 1980-1990 26, 500 29.1 2,310 8.7 1990-2000 32,000 29.5 2,010 6.3 2000-2010 37, 500 29.8 1,630 h.3 2010-2020 1+3, 000 30.1 l,2i+0 2.9 a. b. c. Net movement of persons out of their native state and into another state. Historical data based on U. S. Bureau of the Census, "Historical Statistics", series B-I83, accounting for mortality. Net migration to California from all sources, including migration of persons from states other than their native state, and immigration of the foreign bom as well as migration of persons from their native state. Median projection. -78- The forecast decline, both in in -migration to California and in the ratio presented on Table 13^ was not due to assxmiptions of depressed economic conditions or a lack of persons with a propensity for migration; rather, the rate of growth of California's economic base was of paramount importance. Studies of economic development and employment opportunities in the State, reported in subsequent paragraphs, indicated that California would not be able to absorb all of the potential in-migrants because of the large numerical natural increase which will be occurring in California. Accordingly, net in-migration was estimated to decline in the far futxire as the population increase from excess of births over deaths rises. This is illustrated in Table lU and on Figure "J, which shows the relationship by decades between popvilation growth from natural increase and from in- migration under high, median, and low conditions, and \mder median con- ditions, respectively. Distribution of the total net migration by five- year -age groups was based on the historical distribution occiirring frcxn 1900 thro\igh 1950> and the expected reduction in employment -seeking in- migrants and consequent relative increase in retirement -aged in -migrants. This distribution in the form of the per cent of total migration in each five -year -age group is presented in Table 1^. -79- TABLE ik HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED COMPONENTS OF CHANGE IN THE CALIFORNIA POPULATION Year Population Total change diiring decade Natural increase Births Deaths Migration (includes military) Historical Components^ 1930 5,677,251 1,230,130 883,030 721,700 l,06ti,«00 19^0 6,907,387 3,678,81+0 1,936,000 915,160 2, 65b, 000 1950 10,506,223' Low Projec tion of Components^ 1950 10,609,000c 5,0Ul,000 3,022,000 1,136,000 3,155,000 i960 15,650,000 5,300,000 3,920,000 1,570,000 2,950,000 1970 20,950,000 5,350,000 U, 760, 000 1,980,000 2,570,000 1980 26,300,000 i+, 900, 000 5,300,000 2,1+00,000 2,000,000 1990 31,200,000 i+, boo, 000 6,200,000 2,900,000 1,500,000 2000 36,000,000 i+, 300,000 6,700,000 3,1+00,000 1,000,000 2010 UO, 300, 000 3,700,000 7,200,000 3,900,000 1+00,000 2020 i|i+,000,000 High Projection of Components^ 1950 10,609,000c 5,371,000 3,13«,000 1,11+2,000 3,375,000 i960 15,980,000 6,i+20,000 i+, 730,000 1,620,000 3,310,000 1970 22,400,000 7,600,000 6,600,000 2,100,000 3,100,000 1980 30,000,000 8,500,000 8,300,000 2,600,000 2,800,000 1990 38,500,000 9,300,000 10,100,000 3,200,000 2,1+00,000 2000 1+7,800,000 10,000,000 11,700,000 3,800,000 2,100,000 2010 57,800,000 10,200,000 13,100,000 1+, 700, 000 1, boo, 000 2020 60,000,000 -80- HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED COMPONENTS OF CHANGE IN THE CALIFORNIA POPULATION (continued) Year Population Total change during decade Natural increase Births Deaths Migration (includes military) Median Projection of Components^ 1950 10,609,000c 5,221,000 3,120,000 1,17^,000 3,275,000 i960 15,830,000c 5,670,000 U, 270, 000 1,600,000 3,200,000 1970 21,700,000 6,500,000 5,810,000 2,030,000 2,720,000 1980 28,200,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 2,500,000 2,300,000 1990 35,000,000 7,100,000 8,100,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 2000 U2, 100,000 5,900,000 b, 900, 000 3,600,000 1,600,000 2010 U9, 000, 000 6,800,000 9,900,000 i+, 300, 000 1,200,000 2020 55,800,000 Historical population enumerated as of census date. (Includes armed forces stationed in California). Source of historical data: U. S. Bureau of the Census Publications. Projected population as of July 1. Projected population and components of change are from the cohort -survival projection of the California population (Tables 82, &k, and 90). While values are rounded to this significance for illustrative purposes, this does not imply an expected level of accuracy in the projection. The 1950 to I96O components of change are based on 1950 to 1958 estimated annual components of change from the California Department of Finance, Budget Division, "California's Population in 1958", Sacramento: July 1950, and 1950 to 1957 estimated components of change from the U. S. Bureau of the Census, "Current Population Reports", Series P-25, No. I86. Source: Califtimia Department of Finance. -81- tJ -p H a) C 0) C a) o +> o; -P ■H LTN UN t— O C^VO [--OJ ITNONCOVO OCO o o o ■p -p ND cn CO ufNVD ONOJ ojco t~ cn cn ir\ a\ 0) -P s*^*^^*t*\*\*t*v iH OJ J- VDCOONI^rHOJOQI^nOrHUA VO ONONCO OJVO 0-3- rHCO ^-VD 3 t~- r-f •• •• s i OJ oT CO rHrHOjronOOJOJrHrH rH o ooo onvocovo ooco uaojoq rooj OJVO ir\vo f-coco ojvd3- -p ■p LTN -ci- ^ rt o • ■ • ••••••••••• s P a> -p U> -^ f-COl/NCOHt-l/NOJOOOJOJOO M s Ch o Vl ON ,-t r-\ r-{ g (1) as r-l ., ,, o H -d 1 OJ 00 LTNVO OJ O U>VD ON rH O OJ on ON 03 o Jh OJ c— l>-Q0J-00000OVOOOOt--t^ g o en 0) ON o VO OOVD OJ rovD-d- t>-C^VO itnO (U 0\ ,g •* •V «v*s'«*\^*\*s*s*\'\*\^ w t:) rH f- OJ vo VD ONVO rHOQONOrOt^ON t-co ir\ONOJcovD aj-5 OJ OJCO M S p ITN ON P o M s ON \ r^ H rH H C II •H •• •• 'ij ^ ^ tJ ^ ffi O ■xi r-l ON -^OnVDOJCOI^CO I ITN 1 ITNt^ ?3 -p -p OJ f- OJOJONOC^l^rO 1 O IVOCO c ^ a o . • •••••• • •• w o o d) ■p J- Lr\ COCOrH^rHOCO H LTNU^ ir\ O Eh •H o Oi o ON H H H rH rH M <: a 1^ fv-) CN o a !<: u iH • • Tj Ti Tj TJ M 1 o o ajoj^ojONC--oj 1 cn ij-ltn § gg •H O ^1 CO OJ J-ONOONQCOO IJ- IrHOO OOrHVOOTLfNCO 1 O l-*-4- S C\l v •-i o ^ n% ON ^ r^ •\ »^•\-^•^r^»\•^ »v *\-s -P M ON cn U-NVOLfNOO^COt^ CO VDO O Ph o p t^ eg LrMrNOJVOOJONLrN O OH ffi M q ^ rHrHOJOJOJrHrH OJ rHrH n o 7^ •• •■ •• iH rH ^ fe •H cS vo -4- [--VDCOrO-d-CTNHOJQQUA-it HHH[^t^OOJt^VDcOOON o U +:> -P vo cn ^ o o ID 0) O ON 6 ONQO oj OOONONVD LfNj^ oJ OOlA u CQ cvj Ph u ON H rH H •H ON tfH g W 1 .. .. O Eh o ON r-H ^OOHJ-OJonHHO-*-*-* CO l-l !-i CO r-t t^OOOOHOJLTNCOt-rHH^-OO M ON OJ t~-J--d- ONt— f-C~--d- LTN -p -P cn vo vo rH LTNOJ t~-ONOJVO LTNVD UfNVD u a O ■ • o p a 4J I^ OJ t>-c6j-V£)oJONf^-:d^0nrHoJ0O H PU o ON H r-\ r-i ON -0-* '-{■^ ONt^OJ -H .Q vo LTN CO l-l ONOOOJVOCO ^-VOVO t^OJ ONCO l/NVDrHn-)OJrHrHOJ H rH -rJ *• a (U H 4:! U -P M . 0) c ;3 •■-s (1) O h <*H 5 PM O -P I ^ o TJ -82- FIGURE 7 ECADES SOURCES OF POPULATION EDIAN PROJECTION UJ 200 5 LEGEND NET IN- MI6RATI0N 1 NATURAL INCREASE M s f I n i i I i i i ^1 111 .1 i i -I s J i| 1^1 i i s, 1930-40 1940-50 r950-60 1960-70 1970-80 1980-90 1990-2000 2000-10 2010—20 DECADES HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED SOURCES OF POPULATION INCREASE IN CALIFORNIA-MEDIAN PROJECTION DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES Computation of Projected California Population The State's base population and age-group distribution for 1955 were taken from a bulletin of the Budget Division of the California Department of Finance entitled "California's Population in 1958", July, 1958. This base population was aged by successive five-year periods by application of the growth rates described above. First, each five-year -age group in the beginning population and one -half of the migrants for the particular five- year span and age group were aged by applying the appropriate survival factor. To these survivors were added the one -half of the migrants for the same time span in the next oldest age group to which survival rates were not applied. This sum then became the next oldest age group at the next five-year point in time. The size of the 0-k age group for each five-year point in time was computed in the following steps. First, the avereige gross reproduction rate during each five-year span was calculated through multiplying the projected United States gross reproduction rate by the extrapolated ratio of this rate with California's rate, with results as tabulated in Attachment No. 5> Table No. 80. Five -year -age group annual specific birth rates corresponding to this gross reproduction rate were then taken from the idealized correlation curves on Figure k. These annual rates were multi- plied by five, with resulting rates as shown on Table No. 81, Attachment No. 5^ a^nd then applied to the estimated average number of women in each prod\K:ing age group during that five-year span to obtain the niimber of births. The number of women in each child producing age group was taken as one -half of the average of the total population in that age group at the beginning and end of the span. -83- Computation of Projected California Populatioa The State's base population and age-group distribution for 1955 were taken from a bulletin of the Budget Division of the California Department of Finance entitled "California's Population in 1958", July, 1958. This base population was aged by successive five-year periods by application of the growth rates described above. First, each five-year -age group in the beginning population and one-half of the migrants for the particular five- year span and age group were aged by applying the appropriate survival factor. To these survivors were added the one -half of the migrants for the same time span in the next oldest age group to which survival rates were not applied. This sum then became the next oldest age group at the next five-year point in time. The size of the 0-^4- age group for each five-year point in time was computed in the following steps. First, the average gross reproduction rate during each five-year span was calculated through multiplying the projected United States gross reproduction rate by the extrapolated ratio of this rate with California's rate, with results as tabulated in Attachment No. 5, Table No. 80. Five -year -age group annual specific birth rates corresponding to this gross reproduction rate were then taken from the idealized correlation curves on Figure k. These einaual rates were multi- plied by five, with resulting rates as shown on Table No. 8l, Attachment No. 5; and. then applied to the estimated average number of women in each producing age group during that five-year span to obtain the number of births. The number of women in each child producing age group was taken as one -half of the average of the total population in that age group at the beginning and end of the span. -83- The sum of the births to these groups during the span was survived by the 0-U survival rate for that particular five-year span as tabulated in Attachment No. 5> Table No. 63. These survivors plus one -half of the migrants aged 0-'+ dxiring that span became the 0-^ group at the end of the span. Projected California Population . The high, median, and low pro- jections of the State's population, resulting from applications of high, median, and low fertility and in-migration rates and median mortality rates to California's present population, are shown on Tables 11 and lU, and Figure 5' As the ratios tabulated in Table 11 between California's and the nation's population show, California's population is estimated to continue to increase more rapidly than that of the United States, with the difference between the rates declining. Tables 88, 89, and ^0, presenting the State's high, median, and low age-group projections by five-year intervals, are contained in Attachment No. 7' The median population projection was adopted for reasons as stated before and was used in developing urban water requirements. This projection indicates that in the year 2020 the State may reasonably be expected to contain nearly four times its present population of 1^,750^000, or about 56 million persons. Corresponding "high" and "low" projections for that date are 68 and ij-U millions, respectively. -8U- Regional Distribution of California's Population The population of California was distributed among eight study regions comprising all of the State, which regions are defined in Table l6 and depicted on Figure 8. This procedure was followed to insure that the probable growth projected for southern California was consistent with the probable future growth of all regions of California, as well as that of the State itself. The future regional populations were estimated by first determining the probable distributions of the State's high, median, and low populations in the year 2020, and then determining the relative regional growth rates from the present to year 2020. The year 2020 distributions of the State's population projections were based upon analyses of probable long-term population capacities of the regions, particularly the metropolitan regions. Major factors considered in the aaialyses of year 2020 population distribution were as follows: (1) Nature and extent of lands in each region as described in State Water Resources Board Bulletin No. 2 and publications of this Department. (2) Trends in urban densities and resulting land requirements for projected populations in each region. (3) Comparative livability of each region. (h) Probable pattern of future economy of each region and relative rates of economic growth. (5) Historical patterns of population distribution by region. The relative growth rates of regions throughout the study period were estimated through analyzing (l) the relative patterns of historical growth of regions; (2) the existing and expected future economy of each region, based upon detailed assumptions of future social and economic con- ditions; (3) the relative potential for growth among the regions at varying -85- "£2 E- O CE O e- . 1 d tn C c (Di 0) l Hi >) ® Ol ■i ^ t. plO o 1.1 3 .-« C O) i c > c d q -H +> L J 0! r , -3 a o CL " • ** *v " cd w c > QJ O a J t. ^ o o t. * .-H c aj 1 ■ .HO c 3 • t_ ) -P 1 c -^ cd £ . o id c s. t-< Q 1 u «, hH + > t, o H-. 10)^^ J tt. o : I . ., „ + t o c 5 .i-t +^ dJ u" ; -3 D. O cu •• . •> fc, » -p fli m C 01 nj i 0! ^ -I C- ) c 03 C )-( o t. i-H a S t. c a c g_, c„ t ; (X O >> OJ o i c > ,-1 q « L J -H a a 3 •• .< It ^ -t-* i c : C •" aJ ; « (U rH ■*-! c s o 0] C H- c_ LJ E- •« t. o ^ c- {« ^ Q 3 r^ o C i : " q t o c ^ +J ^ a) c ; -3 V 1 D. O o > a, ^ (i « -p cQ n C 0) a] a> >. (D o 3 L H O O L, £ ^-^s s s. c 3 «• •• •• <^ c ^ o a 3 -i-^i c ) -p * ^■3 a o a & O) ^ 1 ,-1 ^ ,-t CM r-< i-H i-t CM ? ;; CT> •H CM o o o o o o o 8 4 § y g o ID H H s 8 o o « «k A • CM o> rH CD ^ ID ID in m o o <3 CM iH r* cn y ID in o O o O O CO o o o o o CD p^ CM <■> o o * •1 « « « « • in r-t m in CM CTi (C rH CM CM ro T ■^ in o <-) o O ^ o o >o oo o> rH CM Ol en (J> Ol O o o -86- 6- CQ 1-1 a E- J O O J 6- O a t- T ■< a J a. o, o t- a 5i trj ^ « (Tl a> >> C u -"5 ode ^ o m t 1 o c-> o t. --H •i-i 0) a. ^ „ ,, -P 1 c ■H d « ■H o C^ t. o u; t^ ^ a. o C o -H -5 •3 o >1 n. o I o o o o "qf CM ,H #-H .-t o V t/1 Q o Q O o o o ^ o o g H 8 8 o o M « o r* O r** a» Ol o UJ t-t rH en 00 O o o o o •k M •t ■« A o in •«■ lO Ol CM 4 -^ r^ r^ p- ^ O o o 3 o o o o o o o t-H »-H CM o o o iH O r- • • • Ol CD O i-H iH CM • • • iH i-i O o o o o o o c> o Q o o •k CO lO m o (VJ o o ^ r- OJ o 8 a -87- I. 3 +» C ■»-> 3 •M g • •rl & M m ^ •H E- t/) .* m a 3 u (d g 5 3 •» a Hi 1 -rf C I c 3 E i .-H D. O o O •3 ■a o s •H § c +J > >> i-i f-( t. Dl +> a o Hi o £ < •t^ L. -3 aJ x: § •H t. +> •rt t 3 >> o c § b o o a! 2 t-4 IH M -88- FIGURE 8 56,000- TOTAL STATE POPULATION SCALE: 0.8 IN =10,000,000 PERSONS note: (.POPULATIONS IN THOUSANDS DJECTED DISTRIBUTION RNIA-MEDIAN PROJECTION FIGURE 8 TOTAL STATE POPULATION SCALED 0.8 IN = 10,000,000 PERSONS f 930 1958 k^J^O REGIONS I —9 SOUTHERN COUNTIES E— 9 BAY AREA COUNTIES m— 15 NORTH EAST COUNTIES 12—3 CENTRAL COASTAL COUNTIES 1—8 SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY COUNTIES ■21— IMPERIAL COUNTY 211— 3 NORTH COASTAL COUNTIES 2III— 10 MOUNTAIN COUNTIES .POPULATIONS IN THOUSANDS HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION IN C ALI FORN I A - MEDI AN PROJECTION DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES stages of future growth; {k) the tentative 2020 populations of each region; and (5) the data contained in previously published studies of population and economic development of the various regions by the Department and others. In developing the regional forecasts within the framework of the State's projections, special weight was given to region-State relationships and attention was focused on the population increase, in per cent, of each region during each decade. The forecasts of each region's population growth which were produced conform to a pattern of growth which can be separated into three general phases. The first phase exists for long periods of time and is marked by slow rates of increase or decrease in population governed by the changing technology of local economic activities. During this period, the local activities are usually based on the exploitation of nat\iral resources, such as mining, forestry, and agriculture. The second phase is usually characterized by rapid population increases. Where the pressures and stimulation of the regional growth are strong, the rate of increase usually reaches high peaks. Under moderate pressures, the rate of increase usually exhibits more even trends. During this second phase, economic activities in the region reflect a shift in emphasis and are based on urban sources of income, such as manufacturing, trade, finance, and governmental employment. The last phase is characteristic of a mature economy, with growth rates declining and the direction of change indefinite. While regions as a whole may be passing through one of these phases, individual counties or other subdivisions of these regions may be experiencing quite different phases of growth. To illustrate, the City and County of San -89- stages of futvire growth; (U) the tentative 2020 populations of each region; and (5) the data contained in previously published studies of population and economic development of the various regions by the Department and others. In developing the regional forecasts within the framework of the State's projections, special weight was given to region-State relationships and attention was focused on the population increase, in per cent, of each region during each decade. The forecasts of each region's population growth which were produced conform to a pattern of growth which can be separated into three general phases. The first phase exists for long periods of time and is marked by slow rates of increase or decrease in population governed by the changing technology of local economic activities. During this period, the local activities are usually based on the exploitation of natiiral resources, such as mining, forestry, and agriculture. The second phase is usually characterized by rapid population increases. Where the pressures and stimulation of the regional growth are strong, the rate of increase usually reaches high peaks. Under moderate pressures, the rate of increase usually exhibits more even trends. During this second phase, economic activities in the region reflect a shift in emphasis and are based on urban sources of income, such as manufacturing, trade, finance, and governmental employment. The last phase is characteristic of a mature economy, with growth rates declining and the direction of change indefinite. While regions as a whole may be passing through one of these phases, individ\ial counties or other subdivisions of these regions may be experiencing quite different phases of growth. To illustrate, the City and Co\inty of San -89- Francisco has experienced a mature, or phase three, economy for over 30 years, with its rate of population growth alternately increasing and decreasing throughout this period. During the same time, Solano and Sonoma Counties have been in phase one, while the San Francisco Bay Area region, as a whole, has been in phase two. Simultaneously with the regional analyses, projections were made of the populations of individual counties in the San Francisco Bay Area and in southern California. These projections were based on similar but more intensive analyses of the factors used in the regional studies. The summations of individual county forecasts were compared with regional pro- jections. Adjustments were made in the projections resulting from both of the above procedures where logical development indicated conflicts between results therefrom. The resulting distributions of the State population projections represent a hierarchy of mutually consistent regional population projections. The historical and projected distribution of California's median population by these regions is shown in Table l6 and Figure 8. The projected growth over the next sixty years approaches a ten times increase in some of the r-ural regions of California which will be entering into phase two, or rapid growth periods, within the next 10 to 20 years. In the San Francisco Bay Area and southern California regions, which include the major metropolitan areas of the State, the growth is expected to result in over a three times increase with the rate of increase rapidly tapering off after the ensuing 20 years . -90- The rapid decline in rate of increase in the established metropolitan regions after 198O will cause an upsurge in the region or regions best able to experience extremely rapid urbanization at that time. All of the nonurban regions exhibit peak rates of growth, therefore, between I98O and 2000; as the San Joaquin Valley region appeared particularly adapted to the rapid urbanization forecasted, the population Increase from the year I98O to the year 2000 in this latter area is projected as being at the highest rate of any region in the State. As shown graphically on Figure 8, even though the southern California region's population growth is much less, percentagewise, than the others, its numerical increase to 28.55 millions by year 2020 is far greater than the fore- cast for any other region. Forecasts of each region's population under "high" and "low" con- ditions are tabulated in Table No. 91, Attachment No. 8. With the "high" and "low" estimates of the State's population as determined previously, the corresponding southern California region's population would be 32 and 25 millions, respectively, in year 2020. The projected growth in the southern California region as described above was further verified through investigation of the expected magnitude of the basic components of change of natural increase and net migration. The results of this investigation indicate that the pattern of regional distribution of California's in-migrants over the study period is logical and consistent with the basic assumptions. The southern California region, which over the past 15 years has attracted over sixty per cent of the migrants to California, will, under the projected growth rates, receive a constantly declining percentage -91- of future migrants while presently slow growing regions, especially the San Joaquin Valley and the Central Coastal regions, will receive increasing proportions of migrants to the State. Population of Southern California Counties The procedure followed in distributing the projected regional population to counties was similar to that previously described in connection with the regional distribution of the State's population, with the County populations derived through considerations of both local trends and the over- all regional growth trends. These considerations are necessary in accurately forecasting the future conditions as the levels and patterns of economic activity, population, irrigated agriculture, and other uses of land and natural resources in any one county within the region are interrelated with the entire region. Therefore, substantial changes in any of these categories in any county will induce changes throughout the entire region. Some of the special considerations on a county level included recent industrial employment trends, changes in size and nature of military establish- ments either proposed or in progress, activities of private developers, and actions of local and State governmental agencies. The most notable recent influence on local county population growth patterns in the southern California area is in the reactivation of the Camp Cooke military reservation in Santa Barbara County as Vandenberg Air Force Base and Point Arguello Naval Air Missile Test Center. The activity due to these bases has already caused a substantial rise in the county' s population and will act to promote growth in the county for the next 10 to 20 years at a rate higher than would other- wise be expected. It should be noted, however, that the population of Santa -92- Barbara projected for the year 2020 would be decreased by only about five per cent if the bases again become inactive. The projected population for the Antelope -Mo jave Service Area, derived herein j is in close agreement throiigh the yeajr 1990 with the pro- jections in Appendix A of Bulletin No. jQ, prepared under contract by the firm of Booz, Allen and Hamilton. Thereafter^ the difference between the two projections increases with the Appendix A projection being substantially greater by the year 2020. The basic cause of this difference appears to lie in the projected relationships between this area and the other regions of the State. The projections reported herein are based upon studies encompassing all regions of the State and the future economic interrelation- ships thereof, which were beyond the scope of the investigation reported in Appendix A. In any event, both projections show that California's continuing population explosion will force the creation in 60 years or less of a large metropolis in the Antelope -Mo jave Desert, one which will exceed the present populations of all but eight of the leading metropolitan areas in the nation. The county projections of population resulting from the analyses are listed in detail in Table No. 92, Attachment No. 9j and are s\ammarized on Table 17. Each county's projected population is shown on Figure 9- Figure 10 depicts graphically the distribution of population over southern California by showing the relative population projected for each county over the study period at twenty -year intervals. It will be noted that Los Angeles County maintains its pre-eminence throughout the study period, even though its growth after 1990 indicates nearly complete urban saturation. The more open and remote areas, such as Saji Luis Obispo County, exhibit relatively slow rates of growth up to 1990 with most of the increases therein occvirring after that date. -93- o ITS ON • O o o O CO O J- CO o o LTN LTN CVJ O Lr\ O r^ r-l O o ON t- CVl OJ ro OJ r-l O OJ C\J o o o OJ o o o OJ o O vo t— O O o O o CO O X) r-l O r-l t~- LfN 1-1 • ro M3 on ITN l/^ t^ [r\ CO O L/N o OJ r-l rH r-l t- CO OJ t~- ir\ r-l OJ ON 00 ON LTN CO MD LTN •\ •\ •\ *\ *v •» *^ •s *\ »\ •s •» ■^ •* ro rn OJ OJ H i-i ro OJ o ON CO OJ OJ vn rH r-l O^ on LTN o l/^ ON O J- -d- o 8 -d- o l/\ f- OOO • CO x> r- ir\ r-l ON LfN MD f- ^ t~- _* » t~-VD ir\ MD OJ r-l VO X) f- MD X) -d- -d- J- OJ CM OJ OJ O ON CO OJ CM o On ON O r-l Lf\ r-l o o o l/NC\J r-l O CJ vO o oo o LfN_=t- • O OJ-^ f- t—CO ro r-< ro OJ C\J -d- t^ OO OO J- OJ r-l CO r- On-* LTN 0Ov£) ro ro OJ o OJ OJ OJ O ON XI OJ OJ c o CO u 0) ft li-l o m TC! a a 02 73 O Xi ■P C3 M O X) ON o r- ON o ON XI ON O ITN t~- ON O UN CVl O ON VO o o O ON • CO r-l OJ CO r-l OJ o O t-- ONCO OO t- f- ir\ J- OO O OO t-CVJ LTN OJ 0\ ON OO OJ r-l O LTN 1/N LTN • VX) J- OJ CO OO ON -d- -4- OJ OO J- OO OJ CO VO OJ CO 8; ON ON CO o t- OJ <> ITN o-i ON CO ITN OJ CO XI -* o CO O 1 2> r-l OJ ON t^ O X) O OO OJ r-1 •^ »v •^ •s CO ^- f- r-l r-l o O CO OO o ON O o (y~> ON J- LfN LTN o OJ ITN ON O O OJ ^ I^O CO r-l^ J- CO r-l MD ON f— r-l ON OJ OJ r-l u^J■ H r-l r-i J- VD vD -* •V "» •\ •\ r-l r-l vovo LTN f- -Ct LTN O ro OJ MD ON LTN OO VO CO UN • • • • • • • • • • • • OO r-l OJ -* -d- ONON LTN LTN CO OJ H r-l VD r-l .* -* r-l OJ r-l 5,792 5,731 UN On r-l ON UN CO NO ■p o ■p a 0) t:) •rl CO 0) > O o O M !>»T-| +3 O O •H Q C CO u (1) ■P-Q 05 oJ IS 4) a o O CD CO o •rl u ■p tt) w ta T-i (U Q OJ (1) o >i-P §^ o d (U jH _ 'd r-l -rl •H O > >, l/i P^ U ■p fn O 0) C 0) ^1 CO 3 > +> O H (U -p O « S O •H OJ r-l -P fn "d CS C -p •rl -P 01 W to CO 0) •rl ^< 05 01 P Q) O J^ > t^ &^ •rl ■P o u o c •H ■P U g 05 3 d o ^1 0) -p cS o5 13 0) d.^ oJ (1) o ■rl 0) W PQ 05 pq d oS CO o a. 5 O (1) u CO -p 0) -p S u •rl ■P fH d +J 0) (0 W -H 0) Q >. !-i •P (U §^ OS o :s OJ u d ^ to o5 0) .p OJ r-l -H o >5 0) r-l •rl -p bD O t 0) §5& O fH CO O (0 4J o 0) ■p W tJ S o 0) •H r-l r-l -P Jh (U oJ d +> bO+J 0) to d W to •rH Q to U P-i o H^ (1) -p 05 05 = 1 05 ■P 0) •H O —I •H ft t, O >>-p ■p o -P U d 0) (U to bO 0) o5 & O CO ■p o ■rl u ■p to ■H § .9k- S oj ^^ (0 M S C! § 5 o CO M U g^^ 0) ft p a -o u w K S^"' B P-i H 5 i§ M -^_^ w m Pk o O 8 o 1-1 ON f- LTN r-l OJ OJ OJ ^ •\ »\ #\ •\ r-l OJ r-l OJ OJ i-l OJ ^ s O VO r-l LTN ON o OJ LTN l/N r-l OJ ON •\ *s «s «v •\ ON r^ OJ I-l r-l CO O O o ro o OJ o CO ON I-l =0 M3 20 o CO to o o > ON f- O CO CO On CX3 I-- VO OJ ON OJ 00 CO ^ O u u U d -P C! cd CO •p c :3 o o o ft CO •H w hJ c 0) CO g CO CO t3 03 0) o •H (U CO O I 0) ft o 1-1 ITN LTN CO OJ OO OO r-i ONl (3N-d-l OJ CM J- J- • • C7N I-l OJ OJ 03 0) o •iH (U CO -p 3 d o o LfN LfN Co" CM LTN C!N •s LfN CM oo OJ O OJ ON ON CO oo CO •s NO o o oo r-l o CO oo ON O CO O t g o CO CO ft ^ J2 -H -p +> bO ft, 0) fi ^t -d 0) -95- Population of Subunits Although analytical studies may define the patterns of historical distribution of -population growth throughout a metropolitan area, or any large geographical area, and may justify the use of the historical pattern for predicting further growth as modified by the assumed future conditions, such studies never completely predict the growth in a particular subunit of the area. The factors influencing the individual case are usually too numerous for all to be included in the analysis preceding the forecast of population growth. Moreover, the distribution of population growcn within a region is largely determined by decisions of influential individuals and groups, and although the progress in human planning and action generally follows a predictable pattern, it is not always possible to narrow down its impact to an exact locality and time period. Therefore, none of the subunits of the co\inties, or, indeed, the counties themselves, will receive precisely its expected share in the county or regional population increase. Higher growth rates than those forecast might easily occur in one subunit while an adjacent subunit experiences correspondingly lower rates of growth. In recognition of this limitation on the accuracy of any pattern of population distribution, care was exercised through all phases of the study to tie each subunit' s projected growth pattern to firm points of control. The factors which might influence growth particular to each sub\mit were investigated in detail and an attempt made to develop a logical pattern of growth based on these factors. The methods described in the following para- graphs are the results of an attempt to dig deeper than the usual application of general growth patterns to each small unit in order that the probable devia- tion of actual growth from the forecast development would be minimized. -96- FIGURE 9 P4 o 2 @ g -i ft o w ft d o d < -H O rH ON O o ON H 0) tjO 1 dJ * 0)^-^ pi -P -^ r-i a d M to ^ (1) •H 0) 1) 01 G cd ^ fn ">— ' ^ 1 — t > Xi +j cd cri-H < W g t- LfN ON H O ITN ON ,-^ H to d * o d 03 O o u -* ■nl V ON -P ft H 05 H Vi S O ft ta O O 03 ^H m ft tJ cfl cr\ d (D rH H bO to g§ o (1> ^ OJ >: -P On «< H d •H O H ON rH O O ON H ^ 1 (1) CO to V (U N e ^•^-^ OOOOOOOOOOONLTNLfNrHVD ONCD 0\ CM CM CM I t--OOJ-J-CTNOt^VDOCOOCO-d-irNt--Ot~--*CMOOCM I t~-t^t^COONrHrOCOU^rHC7Nt~-^U^^-*CMCV)rHrHrH f-VriirNj-OOCOCMrHrHrH OOOOOOOOVDOOCTNOCMrHCJNONrOCVlf-CVitrN I roCMOcX)Or—rot-OJONCOC~-oot--t~-C\Ju-\^t~-CJNCO I VOOcOVOt^ONLrNOOOLfNOOCMCMOJCMCMrHH t~-ND-d-0OCMHrHrH ^ C3N ITN CM H OOOOOOVDt— rHrociNOOCOI^-VCrHrHOOCOrHCO ITNVD OOND <-{ CT\-^ -^ O t~--d- f— 3 VD t^-4- CSNOD 3- u^3 V£) OJ rO J- t-- H C5NVO irNf-lCVIrHrHHrHrH l/N-d- t^ CM rH rH ITN ON CM -:t CO OOOOOrO>-rHCTNCOt>-)CQr— CJN0JOO-^irNt--J- -4- VD ONco C3NONOJOC^CTNo3-ojoOLnoj r-vo cncnm UfNCOtrNCOCMCOt— LTNrOOJCMrHrHrHrHrH •s •S •S »v •V -d- ro CM rH H O LfNcnoOLrNmootrNCM Oj cvj O O OCO LTNJ t^rOCJNONCO U-NC3NCrN[^r^t— -4- LfNt^rH -:d-HCO(3Ni^t— rHrHVDOJCTNf-VDt^COMD-d-J-CMOJCVJ C!N-d-O>-LrN0OrOCMrHrH l^ CM CU t- ONCO CMt^CyOVOOJMDOJ O LfNO-d- mo OVD^J--d-J- OOrHVO H rHCOVO-J- t^ t~-C— CTNmiOCO UNCTNt^LTN LfN J- J" LfN LTN-d" OO CM rH rH rH CO -^ rHO rOOOVOO LPKCTNLrNOJirNLl^^VD OVDcncOt^-COVDD^O OJOJrHOOLTscOOVOJ-ONOOf- LfAir\o3ovOLfNrorOOJCMOJOJOJOJOJrHrH t>-l CVl OJ rH rH cooojirNHCMCvir-- t— vo -^ t-- J- h oovd Lr\cO OCM-^VDoOCJnCTnOOC^N I--VD J- CU HrHHHrHrHHCMCMHr-' ' • no t^ rH ro^ I _ . - rH rH OJ OJ OJ I r-i r-i H H r-\ r-f H CO OJVDirNCVJCO OJrH I^O^VD-d- OJ OVDVD-4- LTNLTNOJCOCO r-i r-{ CJN-* VO ITN J- -* CO O MD O rOVD ON-^ CO^/^rHC0\£)U^^O0JrHrHrH -J- LTN IP^MD LfN LTN J- CO OJ OJ rH rH rH CO en CO VD CO CVJ UTN OJ CO CO rH CO OJ^ coo -:!- C3N CO CO CO CO OJ rH H <3NCOVD OJ L/^ MD VD VO coco -^ OJ OJ CM CM H rH CJnVD CO UA^ OJ CO H OJ (3N-d-\D ir\ONCMVO O CJnOcO UN-* COOJ OcOVO rH CO O C3NCO O H H H ON t^ND rH H H t>- H COVD O^OJOJCMcOUTNirNCOCMOJ U-N^ CO OJ OJ H H H H \D IMD OOOOQl^rHO^- LTN J- -d- -* CO-:!- J- OJ rH rH rH H O OJ OJ CVJ rH rH H H -d- o mt^cr^CJNCo^-cocol/^ CO COCO rHrHOf-rHOJCMCTNCOOCO ONCO t— VO C3N rH O CO CO CVJ OJ H H UNCO CO MD NO C3NC0O t^O OJCO-d-COCOOJCjN 00 t^CO VOO-d-LPvt— LfNt-O C7N LTNVO LfN f-CVICjNt^LfNCOOJOJOJrHrH r-i H CO CVJ I^CJNH VD VD -4- -d- O H ITNCO rH C3NVO OJ LTN CO OJCOCO rH rH CTnOJ CVJ r-i ir\ t- t^ -^ -^ -^ CO C3N t--VD .d- CM CVJ CM CVJ H COCMM3rHOrHVDf-CT\CO I LTNOJO-d-COOJOJOVDOJOJCOVDCVJrHOJirNCOCJNt^VO I r^OJO-d-CMONt^ON-d•HrHCO^-COCOLr^COCOHrHr^ VOVDNDirNJ-OJCMrHHrHrH CJNHO^-d-CjNCMCO CJn-* O LTN c0_* I CVJ CM OJ ONVO LTN OJ C3N rH rH LfNOO t— H O CJN I I I I I I I I I CO rH GO CM o CO CO CM ON VD OJ o CO rH vo CO LTN VOCOOCVJ^VDCOO r-i r-i r-i r-i r-i OJ I I I I I I I I -d-VDCO O CM-d-VOcO CMJ-VOCO O CM^NOCO O CVJ-d-VDCQ O OJ OJ CVJ ojcococococoj-j-_d-J--?t/N I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I O CM-d-VDcO O OJ-d-VOCO O CM-d-VDCQ CM CM CVJ CVJCM corococorO-d-.d--d--d--3- -p ■H w d 0) -d 0) 2 > < -101- o OJ EH Q o OJ O C\J o rH o CM >2 •• -p o •H o (Q o C OJ 0) Q Td 01 •• CS -P o 0) o ON u 0) CT\ 03 o rH f-l ^H ., cd Dh +3 o o X) ■p ON r-H cfl O ^ ^ o ON -p fl .• •■ (U o o- ^^ ON 0) rH ft oj O en ir\ a ON >. ■p • • •rH m o c J- a> ON 'd l-l i-l 0) 03 .. a o o •H o N Jh m O ON OJ ■P r-l o w d •H . . cci K -p o OJ CM •rH ON Q r-H O i-l ON .-1 8 ON 0) y ^^ c! VOi-lr-U-C7NNOrOr-ICJNCOt-t--NO I-l C7NVO on o c— ^ o t— J- O t~- ir\-:t on oj ^h r-i rH r-< -d-OOPOOOrOCVJCyOJr-Jr-li-l CU tv-i c~ OOOOOOOOoOLTNOoONOONDoOLrNJ-VOt— vO f^i^oj r-c\j t~-onocovo ltn^ oo m cm cvj r-i i-i ^oorocMCUi-li-lnH CJN 1-1 LfN OOOOOOOCMrnVDOi-ICOi-lrHCOCMiHLrNt—VO ONMDf-COOLfNajCOVD-^oncMi-ICUOJi-li-li-l ITN^ m OJ CM 1-1 r-l LTN LTNCQ 1/N OOOOOOOJ-QOOJCOOt—ONOMDOCTNLfNurNl^ J- CO CO CO ON^ iH f— LfN^ CM CM 1-1 1-1 CM r-l r-l M3 J- ro CM r-l r-l H -d- r-l J- O OOOOOOOCMCOoOONOcOOCMt--OONLfNir\LrN NDCO r—f-ONOOO C^ LfN J- CM OJ r-l CM OJ r-l r-l NO J- rO OJ r-l r-l r-l tv-1 t-- O OOOOOOOOMDoOPOu^mNOONOJNDL/^CO^- t— -4-t~-N0N0C0CMOf-u>-*000JCM0JCMCMr-lr-l NO -4- no CM r-l r-l r-l r-l CM OOOOOOtTOONO.d-.d-CXDt~-OJir%NOONCOOCrNCO O CO t~- t— ON r-J ON NO J-rorOCMCMOOrocMr-IHr-l NO -^ rO OJ r-< r-l OOOOOOt--^r-lcOcOf— CrN-d-OLfNODirwO-d-oo O-^NONDCO OJ CTnMD LTNOOroronO-d- i^rocM CM r-l r-l rH NO -d- rO OJ r-l r-l CM-:tNOCO O OJ.4-NOC0 O OJJ-NOCO O OJJNOcO O CM-4-NOCO O r-lr-lrHr-lrHCUOJCMOJOJOOOOrOOnoO^J-J-J-J- ufN I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I O CVI-3-NOCO O CM-^NOCO O CM-*NOCO O CM-^-NOCO O CM-^NDoO r-lr-lr-lr-lrHCMOJOJCMCMrOOO(V-)(V1rO_d--*.^-d-J- 0) E a o o u N u o O 1/N q-i 1 CO 01 -:t OJ •H T) -P c •H (d W d •» • 0) CO 01 t3 J- 4) 1 d (UNO o hDJ- SI cd >H -^ ■p (U-4- d > I o O u e 01 O (U ■p o3 -p r-l ^ 03 Tf 0) O 0) •H -P V >H U •H O -4-6 ■^ 6-8 ^ 8-10 ■ 10-12 ■ 12-14 , 20-22 C uii-l'l r / 7. 21-26 26-28 v7 28-30 30-32 , 36-38 / 38-44 1930 YEAR I960 BUTION OF POPULATION DENSITY ES AREA BY DECADE OF DISTANCE ZONE NOTE: EACH CURVE REPRESENTS A TWO U BY ITS DISTANCES FROM THE LE CONCENTRIC ZONE AND IS IDENTIFIED LOS ANGELES CITY HALL IN MILES \ - 10-12 • 12-14 HISTORICAL RELATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION DENSITY IN THE LOS ANGELES AREA BY DECADE AS A FUNCTION OF DISTANCE ZONE DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES FIGURE 12 1 700 600 500 1940^ 1930- "1910'; 1920', .1900' 1950 T\ ^A -. V\ 1957- — \ ^A 300 s S \^ r\ < (r < < o \\ ^ X li- o z < > < u. o z a < z Q Z o z < 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 9 8 \ ^A , \ '\' x\ \ \.Kx \ V \ \ \- \\ \, \ \- ^ ^ -x \^ ^■c^> ^w ^'^ \ •:.■ ,950, ''"N. \ '^^ -"^- ^ \ \ NX- ^. \ --, \ \\ \ - ^- 1900 """a ^ "^ ■-- V \''-- "^1910 >\ 7 ^.--::::>^ °,9S7 \\\ ''' ^ " 19; 5 \V: ^~~~ "-~ 1940 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 MID - POINT DISTANCE OF TWO MILE CONCENTRIC ZONES FROM LOS ANGELES CITY HALL IN MILES HISTORICAL RELATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION DENSITY IN THE LOS ANGELES AREA BY DISTANCE ZONES AS A FUNCTION OF TIME DEPARTMENT O ^ WATE » RC30 URGES The relative deasity-distance-tirae relationships plotted on Figure 11 show a relative density decrease in the inner zones and corresponding rises in the outer areas vith the passage of time. As each of the inner zones approaches conditions of satxiration, its relative density begins to drop. It was also noted that each zone, heginning with the innermost, reaches its peak relative density in successive years in a rhythmic pattern. However, even though each zone followed a similar trend, the extreme inner and outer zones exhibited sharper rates of chaaige than the remainder of the zones. The conclusions realized through analyses of Figures 11 and 12 substantiated the theories advanced by Mr. Blumenfeld for developing patterns of future population distribution in urban areas. Using these theories of metropolitan area population distribution, the relationships portrayed in Figure 11 were generalized for the total area for the period from 185O to the year 2020. This idealized projection of population distribution is shown on Figure 13 . Relative densities for each zone were taken from this graph and tabulated in Table 20, along with historical data. These projected densities formed the basis for estimating the future populations of subunits within the Los Angeles area and, as such, all the conclusions derived from historical data were incorporated in their constmiction. However, prior to projecting population, it was necessary to first estimate the future average yearly density. This was accomplished by (l) determining the area's average density under the median population pro- jection for the year 2020, and (2) graphically extending the historical curve of average density to this point on the basis of the area's historical trend in average density. Historical and projected population densities for the Los Angeles area are tabulated below: -103- Year Historical average density in persons per square mile Year Projected average density in persons per square mile 1900 58. U I960 2,090 1910 161 1970 2,670 1920 302 1980 3,180 1930 692 1990 3,700 19^+0 079 2000 i|,100 1950 1,300 2010 ^,570 1957 1,«10 2020 i^,900 In deriving these projections of average density, many studies of historical density patterns were obtained and reviewed. These studies covered metro- politan areas from New York to San Francisco, as well as many southern California comm\inities. Table 21 contains a tabulation of the forecast densities of each distance zone, obtained by multiplying the projected average density by the prior projection of the relative density of each zone. Through multiplying these forecast densities by the net habitable area in each zone, the pro- jections of population shovm on Table 22 were obtained. These projections were used in estimating future populations and water requirements for the investigational subiinits within the 50-mile radius around the Los Angeles City Hall. The values for the distance zones which were previously eliminated in determining 10-mile moving averages were obtained through inspection of the characteristics of gro\rth of adjacent zones. -104- FIGURE 13 NOTES RE SRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF CONCENTRIC THEORY :H,WITH HISTORICAL DATA CONVERTED TO IDEALIZED ISHIP ON CURVES REPRESENT RANGE OF DISTANCES IN MILES OF IC ZONES FROM LOS ANGELES CITY HALL. VE REPRESENTS THE AVERAGE DENSITY WITHIN I 2 MILE CONCENTRIC ZONE EXPRESSED AS A PER CENT ITERAGE DENSITY THROUGHOUT THE 50 MILE CONCENTRIC S AREA FIGURE 13 YEAR RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN POPULATION DENSITY, DISTANCE, AND TIME IN THE LOS ANGELES AREA DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES TABLE 21 PROJECTED POPULATION DENSITIES OF DISTANCE ZONES IN THE LOS ANGELES AREA Distance :_ Population density in persons per square mile zone : Years (miles) : i960 : 1970 : 1980 . 1990 : 2000 : 2010 : 2020 0- 2 8,550 8,700 8,650 8,660 9,000 8,980 8,960 2- k 8,080 8,590 8,320 8,580 8,910 8,920 9,020 k- 6 7,600 8,180 8,130 8,420 8,600 8,720 8,800 6- 8 7,030 7,680 7,870 8,190 8,320 8,520 8,580 8-10 6,365 7,li+0 7,520 7,800 8,010 8,210 8,250 10-12 5,700 6,600 7,100 7,410 7,560 7,850 7,920 12-lU 5,000 5,970 6,660 7,020 7,110 7,450 7,540 11+-16 ^275 5,360 6,060 6,590 6,660 7,040 7,150 16-18 3,5^ 4,690 5,440 6,000 6,160 6,630 6,710 18-20 2,850 3,950 4,800 5,460 5,760 6,220 6,220 20-22 2,150 3,190 4,100 4,880 5,260 5,710 5,720 22- 2i^ 1,600 2,450 3,390 4,210 4,770 5,200 5,280 2k-26 1,170 1,840 2,690 3,550 4,280 4,690 4,840 26-28 855 1,360 2,050 2,920 3,620 4,230 4,560 28-30 656 i,o4o 1,570 2,300 3,000 3,700 4,070 30-32 508 816 1,230 1,830 2,520 3,160 3,740 32- 3i^ 1+07 650 979 1,470 2,070 2,680 3,410 3'+- 36 331 530 800 1,210 1,730 2,320 3,080 36-38 277 446 672 1,020 1,480 2,o4o 2,800 38-40 238 385 576 885 1,300 1,820 2,700 l*.0-l+2 207 339 506 780 1,150 1,670 2,390 k2-kk 182 303 459 706 1,050 1,560 2,260 hh-k6 163 275 4l6 659 968 1,460 2,120 kS^kd 152 258 4oo 632 914 1,400 2,040 kQ-50 114-2 245 390 624 896 1,380 1,980 -105- TABLE 21 PROJECTED POPULATION DENSITIES OF DISTANCE ZONES IN THE LOS ANGELES AREA Distance ;_ Population density in persons per squa re mile zone : Years (miles) : i960 : 1970 : I98O . 1990 : 2000 : 2010 : 2020 0- 2 8,550 8,700 8,650 8,660 9,000 8,980 8,960 2- k 8,080 8,590 8,320 8,580 8,910 8,920 9,020 U- 6 7,600 8,180 8,130 8,420 8,600 8,720 8,800 6- 8 7,030 7,680 7,870 8,190 8,320 8,520 8,580 8-10 6,365 7,1^ 7,520 7,800 8,010 8,210 8,250 10-12 5,700 6,600 7,100 7,410 7,560 7,850 7,920 12-lU 5,000 5,970 6,660 7,020 7,110 7,450 7,540 11+-16 ^275 5,360 6,060 6,590 6,660 7,040 7,150 16-18 3,5^ J+,690 5,440 6,000 6,160 6,630 6,710 18-20 2,850 3,950 4,800 5,460 5,760 6,220 6,220 20-22 2,150 3,190 4,100 4,880 5,260 5,710 5,720 22- 2U 1,600 2,^50 3,390 4,210 4,770 5,200 5,280 2k-26 1,170 1,840 2,690 3,550 4,280 4,690 4,840 26-28 855 1,360 2,050 2,920 3,620 4,230 4,560 28-30 656 i,o4o 1,570 2,300 3,000 3,700 4,070 30-32 508 816 1,230 1,830 2,520 3,160 3,740 32-3i+ 407 650 979 1,470 2,070 2,680 3,410 3i^-36 331 530 800 1,210 1,730 2,320 3,080 36-38 277 hk6 672 1,020 1,480 2,040 2,800 38-I1O 238 385 576 885 1,300 1,820 2,700 l|0-1^2 207 339 506 780 1,150 1,670 2,390 1+2-i+U 182 303 459 706 1,050 1,560 2,260 kk-k6 163 275 4i6 659 968 1,460 2,120 k6-k8 152 258 400 632 914 1,400 2,040 1+8-50 11+2 2^5 390 624 896 1,380 1,980 -105- TABLE 22 PROJECTED DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION IN THE LOS ANGELES AREA BY DISTANCE ZONES Distance Populat ion in thousands zone Years (miles) : I960 : 1970 1980 : 1990 : 2000 2010 : 2020 0- 2 125 132 122 127 132 130 131 2- h 276 29U 285 294 305 305 309 k- 6 376 405 402 417 426 432 ^35 6- 8 557 608 623 649 659 675 680 b-lO 699 784 826 856 880 902 906 10-12 733 849 913 953 972 1,010 1,020 12-li+ 706 842 940 990 1,000 1,050 1,060 li+-l6 717 899 1,020 1,106 1,120 1,150 1,200 16-lB 563 746 866 955 9«0 1,050 1,070 18-20 609 844 1,030 1,180 1,230 1,330 1,330 20-22 h86 721 926 1,100 1,190 1,290 1,290 22-24 3hl 531 735 912 1,030 1,130 I,l40 2k-26 197 310 453 598 721 790 815 26-28 177 282 425 605 750 876 944 28-30 132 210 316 464 605 746 820 30-32 96.3 155 233 347 478 599 TO9 32-3^+ 41.7 66.6 100 150 212 274 31^9 3i^-36 35.0 56.0 84.5 12ti 183 245 325 36-38 32.1 51.7 78.0 118 172 237 325 38-i+O 27.9 45.2 67.6 104 152 2l4 317 i+O-i+2 25.8 42.3 63.1 97.3 143 20ti 298 k2-kk 22.5 37.4 56.1 87.3 130 193 279 hk-hb 20.2 34.2 51.7 01. ti 120 181 263 k6-kQ 18.7 31.0 49.3 77.9 113 173 252 iitt-50 17.6 30.3 48.2 77.1 111 171 245 TOTALS 7,037.b 9,006.9 10,713.5 I2,4('4.4 13,818 15,391 16,512 -106- The curves resulting from the application of the concentric theory of growth to the Los Angeles area portray the exploding outward growth of the Los Angeles metropolitan complex, with the growth occurring in concentric waves. The density-distance -time relationships show that the spectacular population mushrooming of such cities as West Covina, from a population of i+,500 in 1950 to 8,100 persons 20 months later and 38,000 in 1957; and Aneiheim, which increased from l4,600 in 1950 to 47,000 persons in 1956; are compatible with the Los Angeles area's past 60 years of growth when these cities are considered as a part of the entire metropolitan complex. As stated, the future populations in subunlts outside of the 50- mile radius from the Los Angeles City Hall were estimated by applying the same factors of varying urban densities, location, and time to available habitable lands. In these areas the future patterns of density were derived through analysis of historical growth patterns and resulting anticipated changes therein. To aid in developing the distribution of the county popu- lation estimates, county and city planning commissions and local governmental and private organizations were contacted throughout the investigational area. The patterns of relative growth of subunits in terms of urban densities used were balanced against the total county population derived from the regional population projection. Urban Land Requirements Residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal demand for land historically has received a higher priority for available land than have agricultural demands . This pattern was assumed to continue throughout the study period. The urban demajids for land in each subunit have been calculated -107- by adding to present urban land areas the acreage of land required for further urbanization as determined by applying projections of urban densities to the projected populations of each subiinit. Urban densities for each subunit were estimated for present conditions, based upon present land use surveys and estimates of present populations. Through analyzing these densities existing under various local conditions and representing different stages of develop- ment of communities, trends in densities for subiinits outside the 50-mile radius around the Los Angeles City Hall were projected. This was done by comparing each subunit with communities whose present levels of development and local conditions are similar to the anticipated subunit development. In the areas estimated to become the most densely populated in southern California, which consist of portions of the Los Angeles coastal plain, the density was estimated to be about l8 persons per acre by 198O. This value may be compared to a present density in the City of New York of 38.5 persons per acre and in San Francisco of 27.7 persons per acre. Thus, it may be noted that even with saturated conditions, population densities in southern California are predicted to be substantially less than now exist in highly developed urban centers. The urban demand for lands in various areas in southern California which result from application of the projected densities to the projected populations are shown by decades in Table 23. -108- o CVJ o OJ o O O o o o o O o o o s o o o o o o s o o o OJ ON CO H o H t-- no H v^ «\ *\ •S aN •\ ^ •s •s •\ »s J- oD ^- ooco o H s VD CJ ON t>- i-l u> J- VD ir\ O OO a^ [^ H r-t O OJ OO C\J OJ H OJ O OO OO o o o o o o Q OO OO o o o o o o m5 v^i^ rn H t- en uA o t— oo t— .-I CO OO OO ro O OJ OO r-l -4- OJ OJ t- VD O LTN H OJ CO VO CO CO en OJ w o 03 > o o o OJ o o> .-1 s ON r-1 s LTN ON o OS o o o o o •H (D OJ OO OJ J- VD O O O •\ ON OJ o o OJ OJ o o ON o o OO o o CO o o ^ CO -^ VD O O oTo OO LTN O O " O OO ooco OJ OO s o o o o O OJ [>- ON H OJ o o OJ VD rH OJ O O O O OJ O CO LTN OJ O o ON^ rH OO OO u> O OJ o o o o LTN C~- J- o OJ OO O OJ O O o o [>- 1- VD OO CO ON asr-{ o o o o LTN 00 -^ H ON-d- CO rA o o O VD OO H OJCO S S ^oj ra O O .OJ t:- C7N LTNVD J- O O O o o o LfNCO CO OJ OO O Rj ft ct3 oJ W (L) Ci (U 8^ w o -p ■ (U 0) bO o o OJ OJ o o ON CO H OJ o oo" VO r-i OJ o o IfN »\ CO o o 1^ o LTN LTN OO o ON o o H OO VD s s -^ o o ON OJ o o OJ ON OJ o o OO OO OJ o bO (U o ■H -H pq -H Si t,^ (1) CO CO -p w O o >.o •H u ^^ > •H o CO crt pq -p o o OJ OJ ON o o LTN VO o o OJ r-J o o ON LTN CT\ o o LTN ON VD o o s s +3 0) ro g §w o d o u o o o ■^ -p p to o o3 O o o o o o a •H u ID pq CO o o OO VD o OO o J- o o o Co" OJ VD OJ o 2 00 LTN o o CO c:n o o OJ o o? OJ o o tr\ OO LTN o o o CO OO o o LfN VD OJ o rH o o OJ CVJ o o o O s o OO 3 S »\ *\ vs •N OO VD OJ o LTN OJ H iH O o O Q o UN o R OJ a 0) -p S together with historical data. Several trends arc in evidence in this table, of which the primary ones are the continued decline of agricultural and mining employment as a per cent of total; the gradual increase, in per cent of total, of manxifacturing employment to a peak in 1970, and then a subsequent slight decline; and the continued rise in governmental employment throughout this period of time. A more detailed tabulation of historical and projected national employment is contained in Table No. 93, Attachment No. 10. -112- OJ 5 to o si -p a •H -p a 5J a •H > •H -P n-l a cd 1 0) -P >5 u o o p> +5 nH c Jh ft OJ s ft O 0) _ ON r-t 1 >^ O P rH a ft OJ e s _ w __ a d 1 (D -P >5 o o o -p -P rH C! ^ ft (U O CD tH S S t-- ft O CD CT\ r-i 1 >i O P ^ c; ft 0) s s w ■s -^ '.' " O P> >2 o o o p> pi rH G J-i & 9i MD o Cm s e U> ft O (1) ON rH 1 t>J o pi r-i C ft ^ O O O -P pi iH G fn ft 0) o O tH g 6 LPv ft O (U ON .H 1 >5 O -P r-t G ft (1) ^^ ^' ^' . O P> >j o o o p> pi rH G ^1 ft (U S ft O (U ON .-H 1 >. O -P rH G ft 0) S S w ^ O 4J CJ 0) W •P C OJ i, o iH ft 1 o rH VD c- CX3 C7NVD LTN o CO ON rH CO ON CM 00 rH o J-* ocd ro VD ITN en C!N o OJ on -d- H ITN o H o oo-d- l^- s LTN t^ CM C3N .H UN LTN H -d- rH VD en LTNCO J- CO ir\ U^ O ITN ON •N *> •N r\ ^ •> »s •\ -^ VD ,-A VD CM en U-N on OJ ro J- rH LfN ON ON O S CTN O -d- M rH Q H rH 00 c- LTN CO J- o \^ H CO irv VD ^ OJ t-^ o cvj m J- H LTN o r-{ -d- CJ o^ LfN OJ VD O VD en CO h- u^ H CO on LTN CO CO OD CO LTN no CM rH H CVJ CO •N »• »\ »s "s •\ •\ J- CM CO UN LTN O LfN CO CVJ CM en H -d- I^ H CO h; VD U^ rH CO ON o LfN en CO en iH •-{ CM CD • • « • • • • • CO r-{ f- I>- VD VD O VD 6 OJ cn -=)• rH LTN O J- CO o OJ ir\ -d- on I-- -d- o u-\ CVJ CO LTN m-d- f- rH POCO n CM CTN l>- en O on »s »■ •s »s •s - •\ »^ ITN r— CO en CO VD LfN OJ rH OJ CM m VD t-- I--ON1 en rH o vo VD o novo ■^ VD ON LfN C3N -d- o rH H VD C!N ITN -^ CJN ^ CD r-\ OJ en -=J- LI^ o H !>-C\i -^ en O C3N-d- en VD t— u\ ir\ oo 1^- UA t-- en CO -d- ONrH l/N en onvD O CTN •\ ♦s *i VD U~\ OJ ro LTN LTN :-{ VD rH OJ OJ m LTN 00 ooj- LTN O C^NVD LTN O t-rH oo CM c^ D— VD -d- O t^oj J-' -d- -d-' CM CO rH 6 rH CVJ -d- -d- u^ S -^ LTN ON CO r-A t-CO LTN ^ ^ VD o rH -4- LTN rH [^- on O CNO O ON en (js\ CM OJ •\ 'V •\ - CO rH o H ONOOl on LfN rH CM <-i OJ -d- •» (U 0) u •d -H gr: ■p a> 0) •\ w fl tJ CO G ^ G •H 3 ^ (U -H ■P O P> cS p> u ^ o •H a) -pi O ■p P> -p (U G U o i) pl -p p> s O ,Q '^ to S 7i CO g O G i ft a e 5 O G ly •H -H p pl CO G ^ W G -H CL) fed! < s s G O ^ S CO (H-rt O LTN CTN OJ H • O - •H (1) C— Ch S LfN ^ o ^'^ G h) •H -^ O P> CO O Cd CO Ch = G O •H P> G 'h'pp 1 ^^p> G ^ to 0) o3 G fn ft •2^ n ^" ca > s ^E t:! CO p cu CO pl ■d = •H B G :d G-— OJ G V-^ •H W CO CO = CM CO G (U (U G -H ,-t •H P> ,Q CO -H cd Tlf F^ m W d rH -P OJ id O W -d fH o (5^ •H O ^ P> CQ cd •H +5 4:3 •H H : PM O S ^ r-t 0) OJ ITNCO LTN t~ H M CO o t-- t>- OO o J- C3N C! -H -H Q) o J- CM t^ oo NO t^ OO -:1- o c: -g ft rH •> •\ •\ »* •^ 1 H rH CM OO UN +J P -rl ND nj ciH u^ r-\ -H U • ■P ^■^ cS"" •P • C ft O C CO (U 3 rH cdND CO CiH -H ir\ (U So D o 8 J- t^VD ND CO CO CA NO t- l^VO <^J ITN ITN CT) on ITN no •HO d C7N fH , H MD ro Lr^ ITN CO CO C3N CO [>■ ■P 44 O 0) Ch ft >: CO O 3 O -H -P «rf ^— V Ah O S ^ g CO E^ h-^ rH •^ »s •N •n 05 d LTN CO -P •H CO ON d p-) B> ft rH CM OJ ^ « fi ll d rH • (U w (U ^ CO 1 :d y ^ § •p O O LfN H H o so -:* f- C7N • • • • CS CJ 0) CM Eh ■H ^ , '-' ^ OO-^ -^ -^ NO t— NO t^ LTN : O CO -P LTN M N • P^ O S ,0 CO U w " -p 1) fH -H 0) - ■P O -P ftC) 05 ^ 05 3- ^^ g OO O CTv CO -^ J- J- OO o -p eg -p (u C3N CO (J CO ^ H s 0) -p S O O >! t-i>-o -=^ • CJNCO f- o -p On ■P o H H [^ CD -* J- ON -=f o »v •• H : Per yment: of :enipl H H OO l/N ND s e of data omparison s follows [>-MD H -4- 00 LTN NO H OO H-^ NO CM CM OONO 3- OJ LTN o V o o5 o OO -d- 00 H t-^ f^ 3 ^1 CO H •\ •\ ft H H OJ o o 05 a 0) CO Ix, ? .—^ .--^ •^ V rH OJ -P CO £3 o •H O (U CO OJ CO OJ -H -P O HJ ■H -H -p CO ■ ■ P> O ^ ^ $ •H +5 05 1^ "^^^ O -P ^ CO 0) O +J -P -P s O •> 0) m ,Q g -p r-H O "^ M 08 3 g o (u CO a 3 o ft 0) CO PtTi a tn EH a S CO C <« +3 CO cS -el Vi ■&« s CO a s ^£3 0) •p 3 > 1 lgl O o ^ s -115- The peak, or mediain point, on the curve shows that in one -half of these growth industries, California employment has been increasing at a rate 25 per cent faster than has national employment in these industries, with the average California employment increase, as shown on the figure, being 55 per cent greater than national increase. This historical record of manufacturing growth potential in California was employed in an extensive study of potential for employment growth in California by specific industry- sectors. Underlying the employment projections were all the assumptions outlined earlier in this chapter which influence both the general level of economic activity and future trends in the components of the total. Specific manufacturing industries, as categorized in the standard industrial classification, were also studied with the probable outlook of each being summarized into an over-all manufacturing group projection. In certain indiistries, both in the commercial and in the manufacturing categories, the level of employment therein is closely associated with the State's population. In these groups, the general trend in the State's pop\ilation was modified by the expected productivity changes for use in forecasting employment. Through analyzing the potential for growth in each sector of the economy in conjunction with the opinions of California leaders in the financial, industrial, commercial, and agricultural fields, and with the historical relationships in California and United States employment, ratios of California to United States employment were developed for 1970 and I98O. These ratios -116- FIGURE 14 1947 TO 1954 PERIOD 59 CLASSES OF INDUSTRY EASE IN EMPLOYMENT OF !IA INDUSTRIES INCLUDED ER THAN AVERAGE UNITED ASE. iso% 200% 2 50% 1PL0YMENT BY INDUSTRY AS A UNITED STATES EMPLOYMENT ^LIFORNIA AND UNITED STATES JFACTURING GROWTH INDUSTRIES FIGURE 14 NOTE- DATA IS FOR I947T0I954 PERIOD THERE ARE 69 CL AS S ES OF IN DU STRY INCLUDED. AVERAGE INCREASE IN EMPLOYMENT OF ALL CALIFORNIA INDUSTRIES INCLUDED IS 55% GREATER THAN AVERAGE UNITED STATES INCREASE. 50 30 20 r^ i\ 1 1 \ 1 \ M \ in \ ) 11 \ z \ / 12 1 1 \ INCREASES IN CALIFORNIA EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY AS A PERCENTAGE OF INCREASES IN UNITED STATES EMPLOYMENT COMPARISON OF CHANGES IN CALIFORNIA AND UNITED STATES EMPLOYMENT IN SELECTED MANUFACTURING GROWTH INDUSTRIES DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES are shown in Table 26, and were applied to the projections of national employment to obtain the ajiticipated California employment by industry sectors also shown in Table 26. California employment in manufacturing is projected to continue its historical increase from about 1.2 million in 1958 to over 3 million in 19^0. California is relatively less developed in manufacturing today than the nation but the growth projected for California manufacturing employment will almost close the gap between the State and the nation. A detailed projection of manufacturing employment by standard industrial classifications is contained in Attachment No. 10, Table No. 9^. -117- are shown in Table 26, and were applied to the projections of national employment to obtain the anticipated California employment by industry- sectors also shown in Table 26. California employment in manufacturing is projected to continue its historical increase from about 1.2 million in 1958 to over 3 million in 19^0. California is relatively less developed in manufacturing today than the nation but the growth projected for California maxiufactiiring employment will almost close the gap between the State and the nation. A detailed projection of manufacturing employment by stsjidard industrial classifications is contained in Attachment No. 10, Table No. 9^- -117- VD OJ C d 1 td >3 c -p a a rH D CO 0) ■P V ** fi C! tJ to >> ::< 0) (U 0) O -P o CJ i (1) 4J -H -H O -P O O r-J d H C -t^ to H ft 0) ^1 o p a a & o 1 1 d >^ tJ •H -H 4-5 CO Sh ft OJ u o a a -P O 0) j (U (U O -P o -P -P H (3 t~- •H nJ ft gj ON c -p a a iH ^ CO a; +5 V " p a 'd to >:, 0) , O O O 4-> O o i •^l ^ +> d 1 ^ (U , H !>i-p o j +> CT\ H c o d iH "■ C\J VO O Q UA o O ro J- rH LTN m UACO -J- VO OJ OVO ON H CO ^ oj lA rH t--* ON oo l/N C^ VO O LTN CJ OJ UN LPv 0O-:t UN UN rH O? J- CJ On CO t-UN CO CO UN ^ CVi CJ ONVO UN CO H UN O UN CJN I J- . ■ M3 CO CO O OJ CJ VDMDVO t^ m UN -d- CM rH PO -d- (M no VO oo 00 oo ^ CJ oo CJ H oo CO CJ UN VO CJN •^ o oo 00 VO UN VO CVJ H VO o CJ o Ofl CTN f- UN CJ CO CJ UN CJ VO en rH VO UN ir- OO CO ON t^ Q o o r-t o \6^ s to O >BS 5 CJ H d o - CM •H d •v •■ •\ •V -P •H UN r-i VO H 03 g r-l •-i 0) O • K "h -P •H d UN t^ CJ c^ •S d o -4- r-{ VO oo UN O UN ON •H o •\ •> »v u • u CVJ oo UN 00 -p xi d 0) •H ft J- H UN ON § o p 'd d t- d 0) O oo -^ J- -d- oo M to •H • r-l H rH ON (U -P H tH 05 d H cj cJ CJ rH o •^ . H H H H t:! d § &s s ft ON M rH H CO -d- O -p CJ to rH rH CVJ o M •H (d -P -p -p )Si s 6 ft (Q d d o 0) •H +3 0) H P ^ CO o •* -P ■d ^< d CO 0) ft •• -p •H ta CO P '^ > t~-0O rH CJ -H -H o •rl 05 Vt > +3 •p u a U -^ 0) (1) +3 +3 ,q O 3 g o 4) CO a C/) ftTd d 4J tfl d Td ^H d d ^ d OJ d -P d > O ^ 5 ■p O CO CO CJ to v -p o -118- California Population and Employment Projections . The size of the population that would be related to the projected employment in 1970 and i960 was derived by means of the calculations shown in the following illustration for the year I98O: (1) Projected California employment 11,212,000 (2) Adjustment for multiple jobs (line 1 X 0.97) 10,876,000 (3) Civilian labor force (line 2 + O.96) 11,329,000 {k) Armed forces in California 250,000 (5) Total labor force (line 3 + line h) 11,579,000 (6) Population over ik years (line 5 + 0.57^) 20,172,000 (7) Total population (line b * O.7205) 28,000,000 Line 1, projected California employment, was adjusted in line 2 to reduce the projected employment by those persons working in two or more jobs which are estimated to be three per cent of the total. The civilian labor force, line 3, is obtained by adding unemployment, projected at four per cent of the total labor force, to the adjusted employment projection. Armed forces in California are estimated to be decreased slightly from present levels which are in excess of 300,000 persons. The population over ik years old, line 6, was obtained by dividing line 5 by the labor force participation rate, which factor relates the two items. The rate used in this study was Projection III, extrapolated to I980, of the United States Bureau of the Census, as reported in "Current Population Reports, Labor Force", Series P-50, No. 69. Total population, line 7, was obtained by dividing line 6 by the ratio between population over Ik and total popu- lation, which ratio was obtained from the California population projection. -119- The California population derived in the foregoing manner from the projection of employment to I98O is listed in the following tabulation, together with the median population projection: Projected California Population Based on Based on Year employment projection demographic analysis 1970 21,^50,000 21,700,000 1980 28,000,000 26,200,000 Thus, the estimate of future population derived from the study of industrial employment in California closely approximates the median projection of California's population to 198O. The employment projections also indicate the expected pattern of the future economy of California. Employment in Southe'm California The future employment by major categories was projected for the nine southern California counties region using the same procedures outlined for developing estimates of California's employment. Historical data on employment by sectors of industry were difficult to obtain for southern California, making it necessary to use insured workers data from the State Department of Employment. These data were then related to total employment through ratios between insured workers and total employment which were obtained for portions of the southern California region and for the State. As in the State as a whole, the resulting estimates of total employment overstate the number of individuals due to those persons employed in more than one job. These estimates of historical employment and relationships thereof with total State employment are summarized in Table 27 and shown in detail in Att£w:hment No. 10, Table No. 95' The most striking item evident -120- t2 o -p •H ■P c O & a •H •H > n} -P -P •H a p d C (U 3 O ^ S O a (m o >-. ^^ O Cm O tfl !-, ■H H ft ■P a erf 0) vO o -P p o o >> u^ CN +> o .-1 9 •p c Q) I o erf -P -P •H C P- C d oa pi o ^H s o o ■in O >i f^ O <« O M ^ •H H s H ft >= CO B ^ O 0) -p -P H c d erf 0) o o -P S u^ o o S. o\ -P o H ^1 r-i (y ;:! o fH E O O On -P O r-1 .. U rH P '^ & pu o e (U -p c 1^ o r-l & .. ?. .. .. ■P c (U CO E ^ pj o o +^ H O ft 0) E CO OMfN O OJ t>- t— LTN LfA CM m ctn o^ CVJ ai rHCX) ■+ no t^ n-i CO VD ^ On CVJ I>- tTN CO iH O O OJ O MD .H VD -;!- c>^ OJ C-- I>- ON CO -^' O VD O CO CVJ 3- CO VD oco CXJl rH CMMDI <-t CVJ GN CVJ CVI OJ ro H LfN O CVJ o LTN ON OJ ON OJ on o ON \o OJ o OJ CO vo cvj OJ D- OJ vo on H O LTN J- H ro vo LTN CVJ C3N rO LTN CTNi-I J- H ON CO ' ^- ro S VDMD CMTv O no LTN H LfN LTN r- vo CVJ vo vo L/NVD CJNJ- -^ CO VO H ITN rH ^vo CO I^ ON ITN ON OJ iH -* OJ LTN Lr\ LTN CO CTN OO OO CO VO VO rH o ON UfN O o O rH r-- 0,1 a) Vi) ON CVJ OO rH o O O o rH [>-rH CO -d- C3N ON CO LTN O CVJ OO H OJ UN O o C5 o CO (U •V o a CO C fl d O (0 (U ■H e! O CQ 01 -H ■^3 o ■P -H -H ■p t/ ^ ^ O ■P •H 4J cd u c q c: < a s o o E^ S to c o •H trf rH 0) pc; •rl 4J d M Ch O -P d O ON rH d •H d 4^ o d •ri ^li^ fn O 03 t:) . ft OJ CO S -P ir\ O Dj o o -v ■H VO o d ON 3^ -H H CVJ -121- from Table 27 is the pre-eminent position of this region regarding manu- feuituring in the State, with over 70 per cent of total California employ- ment in majiufacturing being located in southern California. The ratios between southern California and California employment by major categories were projected to the year 198O using the studies previously described. These are summarized in Table 28 with more detail presented in Attachment No. 10, Table No. 95- The projections reflect the anticipated dispersal of man\ifact\iring activities over the State with a consequent decrease in the percentage of manufacturing employment in southern California. However, throughout this period, the Los Angeles Metropolitan Area will continue as the dominant industrial center of California and the west. The numerical change in employment in the region is projected to increase from about 3-1/^ million in 1956 to over 6-1/2 million in 198O. Southern California Population and Employment Projection . The regional population that would be related to the projections of employment shown in Table 28 was derived by using the same procedures and fax;tors previously reviewed for the State, except that armed forces in the region were projected to be l60,000. The regional pop\ilation derived from the projections of employment approximates that of the median population pro- jection of the State as indicated below: Projected Nine Southern California Coonties Population Based on Based on Year employment projection demographic analysis 1970 12,9ij-0,000 13,100,000 1980 16,6^4-0,000 16,838,000 -122- CO cvj a i u Ti o ■p c •H -P o •H rH •H > •H o t d d >5 (U -p C O -P o O O H C f^ ■P -H ft (U 0) =H 0) 0) PL, O ^ 05 -p S d 0) Q 0) 'd c XI O -p S o gj ■p =H g o -p ::3 -H P iH o O H O S _: PL. O B ^ 1) ^ '^ '^ >i (U ■P C O -P o O O H G -P -H ft (U Jh , tC' s s (U i d ^ o ON H U O rH Im ft (U " ^ l^ +^ 1 c o c ■H d 0) +5 o o d a >^ 0) o h o w ^ O rH (U ^ fl m IQ p ^ S> o O -P H O & 0) M "^ tr- ONVD rH O ON CO MD O CNCM O O OJ -4- O Lr\ 3 Lr\ q CO CM U-N rH LfNMD f-MD rH OJ L^ O OJ O CN OJ -d- CO Q OJ 05 rH -4- OJ Lr\ tr\ ro-4- UTN LTN ^ CM -:t CVJCO H OJ I^ OJ MD VO OJ H oT O O CO -^ CO ITS J- CO OJ OJ CM VO CO w CO 0) -H ■P ^ ^ o ■p ■p -p ," "^ M d ^ u a 'H •H -H pi §sl J- CM t-- CO ^n o C) CY) UJ CO CO rH 00 O CJN o rH OJ CM J- o OCO CO o 3^ s C5 O H w c O •H 1^ H ITN PO s on r^ • c:nu^ ITS o C3N r^ CO o \D « a LTN •\ •s •\ fM cr-) ^ ^ •rl 0) -s -p a5 U pi ON +J O r-i MD Q VOCO M3 CM 9 J- H -d a 4J rH u^ O- O) d •H d «N M OJ LTN ^ VD H d o rH O ulatio 3 per ^ 4^ ft • 00 o • • O OO t s ft-S H-4- VO LTN s ON LTN ^ i> d •> (U o •H o Q r-i d c— f4 C7\ •s g O H d [vj tH •H •H mco •-i o C tH d w OJ t- o o Jh o O O ?: c6 CM rH 6 Ch ■p , O -d- rH M3 o •H a - oo O OJ (D P u w CM-^ t^ OO +^ O -H -^ VD O O d ft •v •\ •p d w OJ m LTN d -p d tinated ed year CO O oo 1>- Tj w +> ir\cO OO u-\ d CO H o OO ^ o •s •> »\ -. Jh o Eh a CM W 0) +3 o -123- CHAPTER IV. IRRIGATED AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT The southern California area has experienced intensive development of irrigated agriculture in the past wherever water supplies have been made available. Because of favorable climatic conditions, coastal portions of the area have been able to support agriculture of a high income -producing type. The favorable conditions for continued growth of agricultural acreage in the South Coastal Area have been offset, however, by the recent extensive encroachment of urban land use on agriculture, a condition which is expected to continue in the future. Inland portions of the area, including western Kern County, the Upper Salinas Valley, and the Antelope -Mo jave Service Area, have had more limited crop adaptability. Forecasts of irrigated acreage in the southern California area have related localized climatic limitations on crops to factors of land adaptability and availability, anticipated gross and net returns by crops, costs of water to the farmer, required investments and probable returns on investments, and the general patterns of development established by precedent and environment. Since California's agricultural products are utilized throughout the nation, studies of national markets and the State's partici- pation therein were also necessary. A basic assumption in the studies, as outlined earlier, was that the full costs associated with delivering water to each service area should be used in projecting water demands. -12U- Procedure The projections of irrigated acreage were based upon an evaluation, for appropriate subunits of the investigational area, of a series of factors which exert major influences upon activity in irrigated agriculture. These factors are listed as follows: (1 (2 (3 (^ (5 (6 Availability and q\iality of Isjad, and consideration of encroachment by urban and industrial development. Crop adaptability. Historical agricultural development patterns. Markets for farm products. Residual income available to the farmer for payment of water charges and for incentive to farm. The required investment and probable return to the investment. (7) Cost of water, including distribution costs. (8) Local climatic conditions. (9) Local water development organizations. (10) Size of farm. The investigational work included; (l) field surveys to determine land classification and present land use; (2) personal contacts with farm advisors, county agricultural commissioners, office managers of Agricultural Stabilization and Conservation County Committees of the United States Department of Agriculture, officials of water agencies and growers' organi- zations, and some 150 individual farm owners and operators; (3) compilation of all available statistical data concerning historical acreages and produc- tion quantities, prices received for farm products, and production costs, including water costs from existing sources of supply. The data obtained -125- throvigh the investigational work were employed in evaluating the above factors and estimating the future growth of irrigated acreage. While the most important factors used in projecting acreaiges of irrigated crops were the price or cost of water, residual income, and return on investment, all of the factors enumerated above were included in the analyses. Factors Affecting the Development of Irrigated Agriculture The factors which exert major influences upon activity in irrigated agriculture, as summarized above, are discussed in the following paragraphs, together with their effect on projections of irrigated agriculture in the southern California area. Availability amd Quality of Land Land use in the nine southern California counties has been generally characterized in recent years by a transition from agricultural to urban uses. Thus, the evaluation of land resources in the southern California area, con- sisting of the detailed field surveys described in Chapter II, required further modifications before the suitable acreage available for irrigation in each subunit could be determined for future conditions. Land areas in each subunit available for irrigated agriculture were determined for the period of analysis by subtracting from the irrigable acreages obtained by field surveys the acreages required for the projected populations as summarized in Table 23 of Chapter III. As Table 23 of Chapter III indicates, the coastal area from Ventura County to the Mexican Border is expected to experience rapid urbanization, with continued encroachment on presently irrigated lands. In coastal Los -126- Angeles Coiinty, irrigated agricultiiral lands are expected to diminish to about 5^000 acres by 1970 and to nearly disappear by about 1990. In Orange and coastal San Bernardino Counties a similar occurrence is expected, but at a slower rate, with only minor acreages remaining by the turn of the century. In southwestern Riverside and San Diego Counties, land adaptable to high value citrus, avocados and truck crops appears to be available to the extent of 200,000 acres over and above the habitable land areas necessary to accommodate projected lirban development. In Ventura County, urban developments are expected to steadily reduce existing agricultural land areas but not to the point of complete extinction of irrigated farming. In Santa Barbara and San Lviis Obispo Counties, irrigable land areas in excess of \irban land requirements were found to be of svifficient magnitude to indicate that agriculture can expand. Sufficient suitable raw land is available in Kern County to permit a con- siderable expansion in both \irban and agricultviral development. Crop Adaptability An inventory was made of the various types of crops adapted to the climatic conditions in each of the areas studied. Because of the high value of land and competition therefor in many portions of southern California, continued existence of agriculture is dependent upon production of only the highest value crops adaptable to the particular area. Therefore, special emphasis was given to those crops in each locality that provided the largest rates of return on the invested capital of the irrigators. -127- The coastal areas of southern California are generally adaptable to high value crops such as citrus and subtropical fmtis, nuts, truck crops, cut flowers, and nursery stock. The Upper Sp.linas Valley Study Unit of San Luis Obispo County is generally adapted to lower value truck crops, deciduous fruits and irrigated pasture and alfalfa. The Kern County Service Area is generally adapted to cotton, potatoes, and other field crops; grapes, melons, and other truck crops; deciduous fruit; and in certain areas of good air drainage in the foothills of the San Joaquin Valley, citrus fruit. The Antelope -Mo jave Service Area appears to be limited to irrigated pasture, alfalfa, single -cropped vegetables, and possibly deciduous fruit. Historical Agricultural Development Patterns Over many years, farmers in the southern California area have grown a wide variety of crops, a number of which have been found to be particularly adaptable to local climatic and soil conditions. As the result of many years experience, definite cropping patterns have emerged in the area's various subunits. These cropping patterns, however, have been modified in recent years by the effects of varying market conditions and urban encroachment. Within the limitations imposed by climate and soil, the effect of varying market conditions, coupled with economic pressure for the highest possible ret\irns on the use of land, has resulted in shifting from the less profitable crops in the pattern of a given subunit to those most profitable. However, urban encroachment has resulted, in many subunits, in the loss to agriculture of those lands with the most favorable climatic and soil conditions. This is particularly true in subunits adapted to the growing of citrus fruits. -128- The general trend in the southern California area over the past 10 years, both in the shifts in general cropping patterns and in the direction of change in total productive acreage, is indicated in the following: (1) The 10-year period, 19I+8-I957, has shovm the following results by crop groups. a. Citrus acreage declined from 269,000 acres to 168,000 acres; a loss of 101,000 acres. b. Noncitrus friiit, nut, and vine crops acreage declined from l8l4-,000 acres to 130,000 acres; a loss of 5i+,000 acres. c. Truck crop acreage increased from 218,000 acres to 229,000 acres; a gain of 11,000 acres, including some nonirrigated lands. d. Field crop acreage increased from 1,206,000 acres to 1,U09,000 acres; a gain of 20U,000 acres, including both irrigated and nonirrigated lands. (2) The period 19^8-1957 has shown a net gain in productive acreage, including both irrigated and dry farmed lands, of 60,000 acres with changes in the counties as follows: a. Kern County increased 156,000 acres. b. San Luis Obispo County increased 6l,000 acres. c. Riverside County, excluding desert areas, increased 22,000 acres. d. Vent\ira County increased 10,000 acres. e. San Diego County increased 5; 000 acres. f. Los Angeles County decreased 107,000 acres. g. Orange County decreased 31,000 acres. h. San Bernardino County decreased 3^^000 acres, i. Santa Barbara County decreased 22,000 acres. -129- The land use surveys reported in Chapter II identify the present cropping patterns in the more than 100 eigriculturally important subunits, ajid were used in establishing a base from which projections of trends \inder assumed future conditions could be made. Market for Farm Products An analysis was made on a national scale of the potential futiire market for 33 basic crops which have an important place in the agriculture of the southern California area. These crops are: (1) Citrus and subtropical fruit a. Navel oranges d. Grapefruit b. Valencia oranges e. Avocados c. Lemons f. Olives (2) Deciduous fruits, nuts, and grapes a. Peaches e. Pears h. Wine grapes b. Apricots f. Almonds i. Table grapes c. Pl\ims g. Walnuts j. Raisin grapes d. Apples (3) Truck crops a. Lettuce e. Sweet corn i. Artichokes b. Celery f. Broccoli j. Watermelons c. Lima beans g. Onions k. Cantaloupes d. Green beans h. Tomatoes (market ) (U) Field crops a. Sugar beets c. Dry beans e. Field corn b. Irish potatoes d. Alfalfa f. Cotton Major assumptions employed in analyzing the long-term national demand for these products are identical to those used in the population studies, as presented in Chapter III. In addition to these assumptions, it was assumed that: (l) future price relationships will resemble those of -130- 1952 -1956, and (2) levels of per capita consumption of the various agri- cultural products will continue to reflect the influence of rising living standards . In developing the market outlook studies, use was made of available commodity studies of the University of California Agricultural Experiment Station and Agricultural Extension Service; the United States Department of Agriculture; California Federal -State Crop and Livestock Reporting Service; the California Department of Agriculture, Region II; Bureau of Reclamation of the United States Department of Interior; Sunkist Growers of California; California Avocado Society; California Planting Cotton Seed Distributors; Kem County Potato Growers Association; Stanford Research Institute; the National Cotton Council of America; and the United States Department of Commerce. National consumption of farm produce was projected to the year 2020, based upon historical data correlating population and crop consumption. The per capita consumption trends were extended on conservative bases and applied to the projected population of the nation presented in Chapter III. The percentage of national consi;miption supplied by California was assumed to change only slightly from present levels, with a few exceptions such as cotton ajid Valencia oranges. Results of the study are presented in Table 29 and in Attachment No. 11, Table No. 96. The following tabulation of several major crops s\immarizes the study, with values in millions of pounds: -131- U 3 ss E- O E- E- b, y e- cx. u a. 6- < o I" §-* u o. c o «l C ■r-< -WO o. E »i g V. o o 3 o <_ 3 O^ M -r^ •□ f-t C -HO o o oj t. Oi o o o i c l-l o C o C\i D. C -H a. t. +> E ^ O o 3 o <„ 3 C7> C ^6 CT) a> o 01 t. r-l o o cu 1 o c CT> o C O^ rH P- -P •^^ E o o 3 -H 3 s^-s o o t. O Q '* c o i c •r^ -MO t^ C -rf a u -f i-siS CO s ;::-s cn O OJ t, f-t u o a ( o c CO o c o^ 1-4 Q.V -P goo 3 -P 3 W XI C V, O o o t. o a " c o 0) C •H .HO ^ C «H a t. +^ g <- O C 3 o t. 3 a> W .H T3 r- C rj O en O 0) t. »-t u u o. o c f^ o c Oi ■H r-l o ■P ^ -H a-P -p E o o r-t 3 -P 3 n -D C «-, o o o ^ o a ** c " " " o ai c •ri Ti O +^ C -rf a t. p E ^ O u 3 o t_ 3 (71 m .rH -D lO C r-l o Oi M u u o. o c (D o C Oi ■H rH O +i CO -H 0.-P -P goo S +» 3 m T3 C «.. o o o t. u a a o t. u 'OOLnr-irHO»f-4C\jmf*..CiCMC>c\jcNjcncD"J5m«;^< O O OJ ,-H r- f*^ o • • S • C • • 'T ro O C^J r-( (7> r* •§ in CM r*. in o r* CO o • • « • vjO •••••«•••••«••«•••••••« OOi-it-*ocMcoooinr*.i-i^r^ocor-*mu>cNJoc7>cMc\JOf-40CMm r-li-i r^ to i~t T rH<-irOCM,-( in ri r^ in rH • «•«• •« •••••««• rHOinr-<.-*CMC\JCMinotDC\JCTiCNjrvjcDCCincr>'< ^ r-i cjiro loco^o r~i oJrHCjm:^ in Ol CM o "^ o*. (D • •••••• 1 CM CM O C*J .-t CTi *0 , CO -2 C3.0 ro in CD XJ 00CMCJOrHOCMin to ^ in rH r- V rv to i-H I in uD CM o ro • t « • trO CO O (-1 r-t O ^ inxa icincM jd r^^toc^ cMrH to • • < O r- r- O to XI 00 in ^ to rOf-t^CMtOLn^in*oaD "TinCM^tococD r^tocooco (-tminioo aa«acO a«a«aaaaa»caaa« r^oo,-(OOto^inin>.rH'^too^i--* rH r-r-t'^J' rHr-tfOCM ^ O O 0\ CTi ■ r- tO O O O O r, CM CMO rHOOJ'T O lO CM CO 'T ^ ■ES a! ^ ■N r— uj (J ^_> uj i_ii r^ t»j »— ( r- '^ i-t t^ i_' i^ *f vm tu ■« -^ iw • •a«« ca aaaaa*** ••«•••• moinr-t-- tinincoOt-t^>-iOiocM^QOLnr-<«sto. aaaaa «• ••■a«»aa •••c«a <*>Oinr-(rHO^inQinCOrHC7>C7)C\JCMC0^1/>*5< 0) (rt c E fd a o 01 w t, -P 0> a H L. 0) a a o n J coo (U T* 3 O u) cj t, aJ m i! 3 o 0. .u w O ^ 0) (U C) 0) fj: t- ■P O CI' o — ^ >i ^fc o c tr w o ^ d n m o 03 XI r <-, o m t. C «J +* rH 0) 0) o u u a s: tn ■p -i W p o p (i> o I- ■p >i OJ .H h: o s — t Q) -i +* Q) C. t P D.-<-n 01 o I. -H t. 3 (. ai L. (D iii F: c d ai -r^ a a t. 0) — < c a> o C P.. i-< W m CJ U o J » w t- tt c- ;« «t ■« < < o o O. -a o -o 3 C» C ^ H +J O F-J -n C flj C "-( o :u -132- Average 1930-19^6 Average 1980-1990 Histori; cal market Projec bed market for production for production Total Total national Cali- Southern national Cali- Southern Crop consumption fornia California consumption fornia California Avocados 72 ^9 k9 318 209 209 Potatoes 16,539 2,573 l,6lk 23,5^^9 U,121 3,115 Sugar Beets 2i^,770 6,839 796 H,15U 12,631 798 Cotton Lint 6,776 720 227 9,152 1,920 277 Celery- 1,37^ 735 i+Ol 2,877 1,779 560 Lemons 922 89i^ 871 2,il08 2,221 1,829 Navel Oranges 5,369 l,13i^ 669 10,570 2,19^ 1,001 Peaches 2,i+77 1,53^^ 37 i^,121 2,997 2k Artichokes 32 32 7 ^h ^h 16 It will he noted that the market for the California crops shown above is expected to approximately double in the next 20 to 30 years. Because of the magnitude of projected population increases beyond that time, the fore- going trends may be expected to continue. Based upon these studies, it was concluded that the markets for agricultural products that may be grown in the area would not, in general, be a limiting factor on the development of irrigated agricultural acreage. The outlook for some of the more important crops grown in southern California, as shown in Table No. 96, Attachment No. 11, is discussed in the following paragraphs in terms of California's production: (1) Lemons . In spite of the indicated decrease in the pro- portion of the United States market, from 97*^ per cent in 1960-70 to 85.8 per cent in 2020, annual demand for California lemons was expected to increase from 1,507 million pounds in I96O-7O to 3,607 million pounds in 2020. Production of California lemons in 1957 was 1,280 million pounds . (2) Navel oranges. There is no competition from other areas except for a small acreage in Arizona. The annual United States market demajid for California navels was projected as 1,389 million po\inds in I96O-7O and 3,92^ million pounds in 2020. Production of California navels in 1957 was 1,163 million pounds. -133- (3) Valencia oranges . There is heavy competition from Florida for canned orange products, but California Valencia oranges have had more appeal and thus have created a greater demand as fresh fruit. The annual United States market demand for California Valencias in I96O-7O was projected at 1,370 million pounds, increasing by 2020 to U,28l million pounds. Production of California Valencias in 1957 '^s.s 1,505 million pounds. The projected decrease in California's share of the Valencia market is based on the anticipated heavy loss of acreage to urban growth in the southern California area, which has 88 per cent of the State's Valencia acreage. (4) Avocados . The United States annual market demand for California production in 196O-7O was estimated at 93.9 million pounds, and was projected at 491>5 million pounds in 2020. Production in 1958 in California amounted to 8^4- million pounds. (5) Lettuce . Lettuce, one of the foremost truck crops in terms of production, experienced a 1957 California production of 2,052 million pounds. California's anniial production in 196O-7O was projected at 2,52^ million pounds . (6) Cotton lint . California was expected to continue to supply a large share of the United States market, with annual pro- duction in California in 196O-7O forecast at 936 million pounds, up from the present production of 768.5 million pounds. The projected increase in per cent of the nation's production, from 11 per cent at present to 29 per cent in 2020 was based on the State's ability to produce cotton more efficiently than most other producing sections. With projected United States population growth, it was estimated that cotton will cease to be in surplus. (7) Alfalfa. California annual production during the I96O-7O decade was projected at lU,062 million pounds, up from present production of 10,880 million pounds. (8) Sugar beets . The annual United States market for California production in the I96O-7O decade is expected to be 9^092 million pounds. By 2020, this market was estimated to grow to 19,106 million pounds, compared to California's present production of 8,682 million pounds. -13h- Computation of Residual Income When farm production costs, other than water charges, are deducted from gross crop returns, the remainder, or residual income, represents (l) the amount available for payment of water charges and (2) an incentive to the farmer to compensate for the risks inherent in developing new lands and continuing operations. It will be recognized, other conditions being equal, that as water costs to the farmer increase the incentive to farm decreases. A reduction of the incentive below a certain point will result in cessation of production of the crop considered. Estimates were made of residual income for the various crops under consideration. A farm budget case study was made for each important agri- cultural subunit in the Counties of San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, Vent\ira, and Orange, and for Riverside, San Bernardino and Los Angeles Counties, excluding desert areas. Information was obtained on actual current costs of production, yields, prices received by farmers, unit use of water, peak irrigation months, irrigation systems, farm investments, farm development costs, size of farm, influence of climatological factors, markets for crops, farm family living expenses, etc. (Farm family living expenses include such items as housing, food, clothing, insurance, medical, and personal automobile expenses. ) For subunits in the Kem County Service Area, coastal San Diego County, and the Antelope-Mojave Service Area, the principal source of data for residual income determinations was the University of California Agri- cultural Extension Service. -135- Residual income estimates for each significant crop and livestock enteirprise within the agricultiirally important subxinits were arrived at by a generalization of the data obtained through the case study and Extension Service methods. The generalization was made to eliminate yield and cost of production factors peculiar to the specific case itself and resulted in values applicable to the entire subunit under consideration. Further modifications were instituted to account for variations in yields and costs due to differ- ences in land classification and climate within the subunit. Crop yields, after having been generalized for the subunit, were then compared with information regarding yields obtained from County Agri- cultural Commissioner Reports, County Agricultural Extension Services, the California Citrus League and the Calavo Growers of California, The yields finally selected for each crop were chosen to be consistent with yields normally attainable by economically successful growers in the subunit. This basis for selecting crop yields was used because economic analysis demands that reasonable farm management be practiced and that economical production methods be used. This, for all practical purposes, limited yield considera- tions only to farms and farmers that have been economically successful. Price-Cost Base. A further modification made to the data was the conversion of price and cost factors to a 1952-56 price-cost base. This base was adopted because it was believed that it reflected a relationship between farm income and costs that is expected to continue in the future, even though there is current evidence of a price-cost squeeze. The conversion to the 1952-56 base was accomplished by utilizing The United States Department of Agriculture index of prices paid (1910-191^ average = 100). Prices received by farmers were computed as local F.O.B. prices less packing house charges, and were then converted to the 1952-56 base as noted above. -136- This basis for prices paid and received is believed valid because margins between agricultural income and production costs tend to remain relatively the same despite trends in production, prices and technological advances. In enterprises as competitive as the agricultural industry, profits tend to stay very close to the break-even point. V/hen profit margins increase, due to a widening gap between income and costs caused by technological advance or other factors, new producers are induced into production. New producers increase the total supply in relation to demand and thus prices and profit margins are forced downward. On the other hand, when costs exceed revenues, enough producers are forced out of production to decrease the supply to a point where supply and demand relationships raise prices to a profitable level. Technological advance does little to increase farmers' net returns. This is illustrated by the fact that there have been marked technological advances during the past decade, while farmers' returns have generally been declining. Economic conditions, on the other hand, have much more effect on agriculture. Ultimately, supply and demand factors dictate fanners' returns. Because of the high degree of competition in agriculture, supply and demand conditions, over the long term, keep profitability at a relatively low level. Inflationary trends and artificial restrictive conditions, such as price controls, often disrupt the forces of supply and demand, but in agriculture have only temporary effects. The "price-cost squeeze", as evidenced in the past few years, is due to oversupply conditions relative to demand for tne products. It is no new phenomenon since it has occurred several times in the past. Major -137- price-cost squeezes were in effect in 1921-25, 1930-35^ and 1938-i+2. These squeezes will no doubt appear from time to time in the futiore, as long as agriculture remains in its present character. Over the long term, the spread between gross returns and costs of production will tend to be small. In summary, the price-cost squeeze and returns to farmers were considered in determining the base period for measuring prices and costs, but was not given any further weight after the base period was selected. The period used in the analysis, 1952-56, is one of relatively stable prices paid for factors of production, and of declining prices re- ceived for agricultural produce. Thus, the use of this period as a base tends toward conservatism in forecasts of future conditions and therefore minimizes overstatement of demands for irrigation water. Residual Income . The residual incomes, available for water pay- ments and incentive to farm, are presented for the service areas in Attach- ment Wo. 12, Tables 97 through 105, which show for each service area the derivation of unit residual income by crops. Illustrative of the results of the studies of residual income for payment of water charges and for incentive to farm are the ranges in residual incomes for several crops shown in the following tabulation: Range of values of residual income Crop per acre -foot Avocados $39 - l62 Navel Oranges 15 - 96 Lemons 96 - l88 Walnuts 50 - 155 Table Grapes 27 - 36 Lettuce 33 - 106 Celei-y 59 - 7^ Melons 28 - 102 Diy Onions h-Q - 1^2 Cotton 15 - 39 Alfalfa 2 - lU Sugar Beets 7 - 60 Dry Lima Beans 17 - 39 -138- .he range in values for residual income shown for each crop reflects differ- ences between subunits in yield, land development costs, prices received, and other variables associated with farming. Rate of Return on Investment In all enterprises involving the use of capital, the return to capital invested, compared to the risks involved, is one of the most sig- nificant factors governing investments in those enterprises. As this principal applies to agricultural operations as well as to other business enterprises, determination of the rate of return to capital invested in farms in each subunit was a very important step in estimating the rapidity of development. The rate of return on capital invested is the ratio between net profits and the farraer's equity in the faiTn. IJet profits were calculated by adding the management charge to the resid'ual income previously detennined and subtracting the estimated costs of project water. Management charges were not included as costs in determining the net profits because they are not generally a cash cost chargeable to the farming operation in the southern California area. In all nine counties of the area, farms are preponderantly owner -operated or tenant -operated, and there are only an insignificant number of manager -operated farms. Table 30 summarizes the operation of farms in the southern California area as derived from the 195^+ United States Census of Agriculture. -139- TABLE 30 FAEMS BY TYPE OF OPERATOR IN THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AREA Oimers and Owners and tenants Managers tenant s Managers Per Per : Per Per County- cent cent :cent cent Number : of Number of Acres : of Acres : of total total : total total Kern 2,265 98 U8 2 2,691,000 8i+ 510,000 16 San Luis Obispo 1,808 98 ko 2 1,204,000 80 308,000 20 Santa Barbara 1,319 96 55 k 73i+,000 69 323,000 31 Ventura 1,7^9 9h 107 6 320,000 66 165,000 3^+ Los Angeles 8,071 98 183 2 610,000 82 133,000 18 Orange h,530 99 63 1 325,000 73 119,000 27 Riverside h,73& 97 168 3 6if7,000 77 197,000 23 San Bernardino 5,365 98 110 2 1,5^+5,000 97 55,000 3 San Diego 6,375 98 103 2 761,000 77 232,000 23 TOTAL OR AVERAGE 37,220 98 877 2 8,837,000 81 2,0U2,000 9 Note: Source of Data: 195^ Census of Agriculture, United States Department of Commerce. The risks involved in any particular farming operation influence the required rate of return to capital. The principal sources of much of the long-term capital for purchase of raw or developed land are banks and insvirance companies. However, where climatic or soil conditions make the probability of uniformly successful crop yields small, or where there is only a limited supply of water available, many agencies will not make loans to farmers. Thus, in these areas of higher risks, farmers must obtain the necessary capital from noninstitutional lenders, which usually results in higher interest costs and thus a need for higher rates of return. -liiO- In regard to the availability of capital at low interest rates in areas to receive project v/ater; surveys of opinion indicated that capital from banks and insurance companies would be available when project water was ready for delivery in sufficient amounts to support the rate of growth as projected. The return on farmers' equity capital required to provide an adequate incentive to farm is a function of both the amount of capital needed and the element of risk involved in the agricultural enterprise. These returns were estimated for the major crops in each area under project water conditions and costs and are shovn in detail in Attachment No. 13; Tables 106 through 111; and are summarized in Table 31- These rates of return appear to be adequate to stimulate the investment of capital in the development of raw land to irrigation at the rates projected in the study. -ll+l- TABLE 31 RETURNS TO CAPITAL INVESTMENT BY IRRIGATED CROPS : Crop : Equity : Gross : Total : Return to capital Area : type •.investment^: income : costs^ : Per acre : Per cent San Luis Deciduous Obispo Fruit s^ $ 983 $ 517 $ 328 $189 19.2 Service Truck Crops 1,525 1,875 1,591+ 281 18.5 Area Field Crops Weighted 698 370 29U 76 10.9 Average 1,255 1,257 1,028 229 18.5 Santa Barbara Citrus and Service Avocados 2,025 1,376 1,009 367 18.1 Area Deciduous Fruits^ 910 32k 320 20l+ 22.1+ Truck Crops 1,605 1,730 1,533 197 12.3 Flowers 1,800 2,950 2,379 571 31.7 Field Crops 3hl 287 231 56 10.3 Weighted Average 1,535 1M5 1,184 2lil 15.7 Ventura Citrus and County Avocados 2,025 1,282 l,0i+8 231+ 11.5 Service Dec iduous Area Fruit sc 1,350 502 i+03 99 7.3 Truck Crops 1,860 1,195 976 219 11.8 Flowers 1,800 2,950 2,533 1+17 23.2 Field Crops 975 316 270 k6 h.l Weighted Average 1,797 1,05^^ 861 193 10.7 Coastal Citrus and Riverside Avocados 1,725 1,156 852 3o4 17.6 County Truck Crops Weighted 1,150 l,li+8 996 152 13.2 Average 1,288 1,150 968 187 1I+.5 Coastal Citrxis and San Diego Avocados 1,500 1,071+ Ihi 333 22.2 County Deciduous FruitsC 1,200 925 714-7 178 14.8 Truck Crops 1,220 1,501 1,252 2I+9 20.1+ Flowers 1,800 2,950 2,533 U17 23.2 Weighted Average l^i+00 1,2^7 9hk 303 21.6 -lJ+2- RETURNS TO CAPITAL INVESTKENT BY IRRIGATED CROPS (continued) : Crop : Ea uity : Gross : ; Total : Return to capital Ajrea : type linvestment^-: income : Gosts^ ; Per acre : Per cent Kern County- Citrus $ 773 $ 670 $ 576 $ 9*^ 12.2 Service Dec iduous iftjrea Fruitsc 599 597 I1UI+ 153 25.5 Truck Cro-DS 362 631 500 131 36.3 Alfalfa and Pasture 37^ 203 191 12 3.1 Field Crops 315 300 22b 72 22.8 Weighted Average 395 i+02 3li+ 88 22.3 Computed as 50 per cent of total average investment in Kern County and 75 per cent of total average investment in all other areas. Excluding management charge and all noncash costs except depreciation. Includes nuts and grapes. -Ik3- Fluctuation in the rate of return to capital investment by individual crops was considerable. The greatest variations were estimated in the Kern County Service A;rea's crops of potatoes, cotton, table grapes, and melons because of the greater economic effects of differences in land class in this area than in other areas. Other crops showing considerable fluctuation in returns to capital invested are bell peppers and walnuts. The range of returns for several crops in the southern California area are indicated in the follow- ing tabulation: Range of return to capital investment Crop in per cent Avocados Ik - 26 Navel Oranges 8-17 Valencia Oranges 6-10 Lemons 13 - 23 Walnuts 7 - 23 Table Grapes 9-24 Bell Peppers 15 - 37 Lettuce 7 - 23 Celery 20 - 25 Melons 19 - 36 Potatoes 3 - 45 Cotton 16 - 27 Alfalfa Seed 3 - 7 Siogar Beets 8 - 17 Dry Lima Beans 5 - 16 Cost of Water to the Farmer As has been stated, the cost of water at the main aqueduct was assumed to reflect repayment with interest of all costs associated with delivering water to the service area under consideration. It was further assumed that this estimated cost would be based on the alternative route from which water service would be provided at the least cost to the area under consideration. Variations in these assumed conditions would probably result in varying levels of agricultural development, as discussed in Chapter VI. -Ikk- The residual income for payment of water charges and for farming incentive, for each crop type projected in each study unit, was compared to estimates of the cost of water to the farmer. These estimates of water costs included not only the assumed price of northern California water at the main aqueduct but also costs of conveyance and distribution facilities required to deliver water to the farmer's headgate. Full recognition of water pricing policies of existing water supply organizations was taken with respect to the influence of these policies on agricultural development. For example, it was assumed that the present water pricing policy of the Metropolitan Water District would prevail in the future. The annual cost of Colorado River water to the District, reflected in debt service on its outstanding bonds plus operation and maintenance costs, are recovered in large part by ad valorem taxes on all lands and improvements within the District. A nominal sale price for water, approximating operation and maintenance costs, is charged on all water sold to member agencies of the District. From studies of factors of residual income and return on investment, it was found that in the coastal portions of San Diego, Riverside, and San Bernardino Counties, Orange and Ventura Counties, and in south coastal Santa Barbara County, residual income for the relatively high value crops pro- jected for these areas was sufficiently large to justify the conclusion that irrigated agricultural development would not be limited by the cost of water to the farmer. In northern Santa Barbara and San Lxils Obispo Counties, it was found that residual income from some of the climatically adapted crops, which could only be grown on a small proportion of the total acreage, would exceed estimated water costs by an amoxmt which would yield adequate rates of -IU5- return. However, for substantial acreages of land, residual income from adaptable crops indicated that cost of water to the farmer would be a limiting factor on the development of irrigated sigriculture on these Isinds. In Kern County, very large acreages of irrigable land are available on which the costs of project water would not be excessive ajid there would be a suf- ficient incentive to farm. It was found that, under the water price assumptions employed, climatically adapted crops in the Antelope-Mojave Service Area would yield little or no farming incentive; hence there would be no growth in irrigated agriculture even with availability of northern California water. It was further found that in this area gro\md water tables are declining rapidly with result- ing increases in local water costs. Primarily due to these increasing water costs, progressive reductions of irrigated acresiges were projected for this area. Local Organizations for Water Development An important factor in the rate of increase in irrigation is the existence of local distribution works and/or a political entity to implement water importation and distribution. It will be recognized that in areas where an aggressive water district or agency is already operating and a pattern of water development has been established, included and adjacent areas adaptable to profitable farming operations will readily develop. On the other hand, in areas where such an organization is not in evidence, develop- ment of potentially profitable irrigated agriculture may experience delay both in getting started and in reaching full development because of the time-consum- ing process of district planning and formation followed by the planning, design and construction of a distribution system. -ikG- studies were made in each subunit to evaluate the general level of such organizational eind institutional development and to relate it to projections of irrigated agriculture. Data were collected on existing organized water agencies with respect to organization, operation, financial condition of the agency, assessed valuation of the aigency's territory, bonded indebtedness and financing capacity, policies of the agency regarding water pricing, planned additions to its distribution works, annexations, and types of water contracts or water rights held by the agency. The general historical pattern of development in the district area was studied to sei^e as a guide in estimating future development where district officials were unable to predict futixre policies. In areas lacking local organization, attempts were made thro\jgh conversation with local residents to assess the possibilities for future organization. The coastal areas of Los Angeles, Orange, San Bernardino, Riverside and Sam Diego Counties are in general intensively organized in numerous public and private water service agencies, many of which are member agencies of The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California. Ventura County and Santa Barbara County have established water organizations throughout most of their areas, and in view of current activity may be expected to experience minimum delay in contracting for imported water. San L\iis Obispo County is organized in a county-wide water district, and is presently concerned with planning of fiirther local water supply develop- ments. It is considered that development of irrigated acreage in this county will be limited more by considerations of water cost than by organizational aspects. -Ikj- There are several water districts in existence or in the process of formation in the western and southern portions of Kern County covering large areas of irrigable lands. These include the Semitropic, the Wheeler Ridge- Maricopa, and the Rosedale-Rio Bravo Water Storaige Districts, which were recently formed for the express purpose of contracting for imported water. At present there is no organized water service agency to act for the Antelope Plain area in southwestern Kern County. This extensive area contains some of the best lands in Kern County, and has one of the highest ratios of residual income to water cost in the Kern County Service Area. However, a substantial portion of the Antelope Plain is held by large corporate owners whose unwill- ingness to sell their land has been strongly declared, and whose intention of investing in distribution systems and either actively participating in a farming enterprise or leasing to others is unknown. Considering all the factors involved in this area, it was estimated that there would be only moderate delay in orgaxiizing and contracting for water and developing distri- bution facilities therein. While other factors inhibit the growth of irrigation in the Antelope - Mojave and Whitewater -Coachella Service Areas, the lack of suitable water districts does not. In addition to the existing agencies in these areas, two new agencies in the Antelope-Mojave Service Area were recently approved by the legislature, which may act to expedite the taking of project water therein. -ikS- Size of Farm The factor of size of farm operation was important in the calcu- lations leading to determinations of residual income. Selection of farm size in each important crop category was made through using data collected in field surveys and after interviews with county farm advisors and officials of County Agricultural Stabilization and Conservation Committees. These estimates of farm sizes, shown in Table 32 by crops, vary from ten acres for avocados and strawberries in coastal Los Angeles and Orange Counties and for strawberries in San Lviis Obispo and Ventura Counties, to 2^+0 acres for hay and grain farms in Kern and San Luis Obispo Counties. In projecting the development of citrus and other subtropical fruits in the southern California area, the size of holding was influenced by the ability of these crops to fit into suburban or agricultural -residential living. The smallest of this type of farm analyzed in the study was the ten- acre avocado orchard indicated for coastal Los Angeles and Orange Counties. The very small farm is recognized as furnishing only a part of the total income of the operator. Ability to pay for water for this size of farm is secondary to providing a residence for tue operator. -Ik9- xf (1> -P d 4J (U CO -H M cd O ;3 -P Sh +J a) CO hO O (O 0) d O Q) w 0) > 3 O -H :j -H O g .2 M cvj M ft (Yl § CO s &4 0) § P ^ +> M CI F^ OT c W M I O > o 03 r-l Cd -H 0) (U ■'-3 > U -P O fn < d 2 0) •5 CO oJ CO CO 0) d t:! p CO n-i p ri d CO o a) ^ cd oj ij M o o q -p d cd CO o o I u >. cd o -p d d d ^ -H 3 0) 'd o pq u cd ^ 0) +> +j (U Td d CO > -H p td -H CO o o K o o >5 OJ d -p o cd S d -M 5 0) H -p o cd P d -H H CO h4 ^ Sh J- 1 1 MD 1 CO 1 CO J- 1 -4- -d- 1 J- 1 J- 1 r-t r-l o CVJ r> o o O O o o 1 o 1 , 1 o o o 1 1 1 \n V£> f\l CVJ-:t J- OJ 1 CO 1 1 1 ^ CO -:!■ 1 1 1 r-i r-i r-t r-l OJ cvj o o 1 O 1 1 o 1 o 1 Oil 1 O O ITN VO \o 1 VO 1 1 H 1 -:t 1 J- 1 1 1 oo ro rH o o o 1 o 1 O 1 1 1 o O 1 1 1 1 O LTN LA VD MD i CVJ I VD 1 1 1 J- -4- 1 1 1 1 ro ,-1 r-l r-l 1 o CVJ o O O 1 1 o O O 1 o 1 O 1 1 1 1 1 1 LPv VO vo 1 1 -d- VO r-t 1 -^ 1 J- 1 1 1 1 1 1 r-l OJ CQ CO CO ft ft >> 4J to O o U O CO 0) 1-1 u i) u :3 bO u d •rH CO u CO 1 •H O u :i CO d 0) cd CO '^ Cd H -P r-l U •H o < •^^ d H •n (U i) EH CO CO P -rt Ch ^ d d O .o CO u ^-> (0 CO rd r-l U O U cd +J ■? d U i) :i U i) r-l d d cd Cd +j (d p 0) cd cd O 0) > d (U ft (U 0) ^ m ^ +j si !>3 -p u r-l X! O ^ j:i Qi > r-l S r-l S O ■p cd O -p 0) s r-l Cd P fn cd cd (U > I-) < -150- Projection of Irrigated Acreage The projection of acreage in irrigated agriculture for each subunit consisted of the following progressive steps: (1) Determination of the extent and character of lands adapted to irrigated agriculture. (2) Compilation of a list of crops adaptable to the land classes and climate of the area. (3) Tentative projections of cropping patterns based on studies of present and historical cropping patterns. (^) Upper limits of acreages by crops estimated through using results of studies of the market demand for products of irrigated agriculture of the types employed in the projected crop pattern. (5) Using tentative projections of cropping patterns, computation of residual income available for payment of water charges and incentive to farm for each crop in pattern. (6) Estimation of net revenues and anticipated net return to the investment in the farm for each crop, with those crops and lands in the tentative projection that did not produce sufficient returns to compensate for the risks involved being eliminated. (7) Final selection of the land areas and cropping patterns that will provide sufficient return (or incentive) to justify the necessary investment and compensate for the risks involved. (8) The rate of chamge in irrigated agriculture from present levels to the projected levels of development made, based on studies of existing and planned local organi- zational structures and policies and general pattern of water development, with principal weight given to the magnitude of the farming incentive, or the return to invested capital. The last five foregoing steps comprise a process of progressive modification of the originally selected rough pattern of irrigated acreage, eliminating otherwise suitable acreages upon which incentive to faim would not be suf- ficiently large to stimiilate developnent. -151- Based upon this procedure, forecasts of areas of development in irrigated agriculture were prepared for each subunit by decades from 196O to 2020. The results of the studies are simmarized in Table 33 and Figure 15, "Projected Areas of Irrigated Crops in Southern California Area", and are listed in detail in Attachment No. lU, Tables 112 through 125. It is believed that through careful application of the foregoing procedures, the intangible factor of willingness to pay has been properly evaluated for where there was (a) expressed resistance to payment of estimated water costs, or (b) no local activity to form organizations or districts to take water, or (c ) an alternative source of water supply available at less cost, then the estimated water deliveries in the area were delayed for the estimated periods of time necessary for these factors to lose their effect. In spite of expressed local resistance to pay the estimated price of water, if studies indicated a large potential incentive to use project water, there was no alternative than to assume, over a long- range period, that irrigators would act to take advantage of that potential. Thus it can be seen that willingness to pay is secondary and indirect, although important, as a concept for use in project formulation studies. The concept is more in the nature of a conclusion drawn from more objective factors than an operating factor in its own right. Willingness to pay was implicit in each case where there was ample ability to pay, plus an adequate return to capital invested. Willingness to pay, therefore, is not a controlling factor in itself, but an influencing factor. -152- 05 i> U O 03 Ch o m C (6 m o o r-l CO -4- OJ o\ LfN W VO ^ ON r-l r-< o On CO ON OJ \o vo t:! 3 a o oJ o u (U -P oj oi ■P tio(2 tH c Q U 0) c; -P (d CO M OJ .-I x: a) +J :3 o 0) •H O r-l -H O i. O I) 4) -P o o -4 J- J- vo vo -:t CM O vo CO VO VO r-l r-l CO CO vo OJ r-i CO vo (V-l CO OJ CM o vo VO J- oo o CO LTN LTV o t^ t-- O CT\ t^ f- vo VO -4 J- r-l IfN CM lJ-\ t- OJ CM C3N CJV ro CM CO OO VO O H OJ oo O CM -* vo r-i l/N CO oo a\ ir\ CM OJ oo vo ON -* r-l LTV r-l r-t u^ r-l VO CM OJ r-l OO J- r4 VO r-l -d- l/N LTN OO o\ CM CM CM r-l t- LA CM O Lr^ CM -;!• f- OO r-l LTV CM t- -* t- f- CO -4- OJ H CO CO VO CM CM oo OJ r-l J- VO OJ CM vo CO -d- t— oo oo J- t— r^ C— t- CO -^ Lf\ ^ OS C7v ^ oo r^ r-l 5> u 0) 4-> td s -^ r> -rl o ^-^ o o 0) •H 03 V > CO 0) o o u -p +i d 05 03 -p o •H ^H ■P 01 O O o •H -c! fn dJ u (U pq d 0) CO ft C O (U u CO -p 0) +) 2 V -p 01 U (U -p 03 03 >>S (U P Co O -P 0) U -H O r-l -rl CQ O > (U ft f-l rH O 4J 0) fH CO bO+J q 0) -p •rl o 1^ oJ U -p (X 03 CO m 0) a) o O o u C -P 03 -rl 0) ■P o3 03 +3 0) •rl O r-l -H ft 5 O (U ^ CO +J 0) -P ■P •H g -p ^1 3 c: -p O 0) 03 U 03 •rl bO (!u d CO CO 05 g pj Eh ^ S CO o CL, M CO Q K CO W CO ^^ < g^ H E-i g o 0) CO >> •p o o 03 U -P c > -153- 0) U O to ti ■ • a a CQ o :i -D o U\ Xi r-t +» c ,, M " c- uf\ a\ C\J ON On CO ON CO en CO CM OJ V u U W V n ^H :S^ S S -I5if- FIGURE 15 ■KERN COUNTY SERVICE AREA SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AREA (EXCLUDING KERN COUNTY SERVICE AREA ) SOUTH COASTAL ARE A .INCLUDES VENTURA AND ORANGE COUNTIES AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF LOS ANGELES, SAN BERNARDINO, RIVERSIDE, AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES ■SANTA BARBARA SERVICE AREA (SEE NOTE "d " ON TABLE 5 ) SAN LUIS OBISPO SERVICE AREA (SEE NOTE "e" ON TABLE 5 ) ANTELOPE - MOJAVE SERVICE AREA 2020 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 300,000 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 10,000 -KERN COUNTY SERVICE AREA ■ SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AREA (EXCLUDING KERN COUNTY SERVICE AREA ) -SOUTH COASTAL ARE A .INCLUDES VENTURA AND ORANGE COUNTIES AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF LOS ANGELES, SAN BERNARDINO, RIVERSIDE, AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES ■SANTA BARBARA SERVICE AREA (SEE NOTE "d " ON TABLE 5 1 -SAN LUIS OBISPO SERVICE AREA 1 SEE NOTE "e" ON TABLE 5 ) ■ ANTELOPE - MOJAVE SERVICE AREA 990 YEARS PROJECTED AREAS OF IRRIGATED CROPS IN THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AREA DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES 1959 CHAPTER V. WATER REQUIREMENTS Total future net water requirements* for each subunit were esti- mated by applying appropriate values of unit water use to the projections of population and irrigated acreage therein. Projections of net unit urban water use were based upon studies of historical patterns of urban water deliveries as compared to population in cities of the southern California area; derivation of the relations of temperature, precipitation, personal income, price of water, smd industry upon unit urban water deliveries; determinations of present and future extent of areas connected to ocean outfall sewers; and the extent of areas overlying or tributary to unconfined ground water basins. Net values of unit agricvllt^Iral water use were based upon prior studies by the Department of Water Resources as reported in its publications. Unit Urban Water Use In general, two different procedures may be followed in deriving urban water requirements: (l) water requirements based upon the annual amounts of water delivered per unit area of urban land, and (2) water require- ments based upon annual amounts of water delivered per capita. Due to the lack of data on trends in water requirements per unit urban area and the relatively large amount of data on a per capita basis, the latter method was used in this study. *Net water requirement is defined as the applied water needed to provide for ail beneficial uses and for all irrecoverable losses incidental to such uses for existing or estimated conditions at the point in time under study . -155- CHAPTER V. WATER REQUIREMENTS Total future net water requirements* for each subunit were esti- mated by applying appropriate values of unit water use to the projections of population and irrigated acreage therein. Projections of net unit urban water use were based upon studies of historical patterns of urban water deliveries as compared to population in cities of the southern California area; derivation of the relations of temperature, precipitation, personal income, price of water, and industry upon unit urban water deliveries; determinations of present and future extent of areas connected to ocean outfall sewers; and the extent of areas overlying or tributary to unconfined ground water basins. Net values of unit agricultural water use were based upon prior studies by the Department of Water Resources as reported in its publications. Unit Urban Water Use In general, two different procediires may be followed in deriving urban water requirements: (l) water requirements based upon the annual amoimts of water delivered per unit area of urban land, and (2) water require- ments based upon annual amounts of water delivered per capita. Due to the lack of data on trends in water requirements per unit urban area and the relatively large amount of data on a per capita basis, the latter method was used in this study. *Net water requirement is defined as the applied water needed to provide for all beneficial uses and for all irrecoverable losses incidental to such uses for existing or estimated conditions at the point in time tinder study. ■155- Unit urban water use as determined in this study encompasses all water usage in an urban area, including industrial, commercial, residential, and municipal, as well as losses occurring within the urban distribution system. First, the quantities of applied water, excluding precipitation, were projected on a unit basis. Next, each groxind water basin was studied to determine the percentage of applied water that would be available for re-use. This latter study resulted in the projection of net unit urban water use by subunits. Analysis of Historical Data About 50 cities located in the southern California area were contacted and data on water production and urban population were obtained. The data collected were of varying quality and usefulness, making it neces- sary to evaluate each city's records to eliminate errors and ina/;curacies and account for incomplete coverage of either water production or population data, lack of meter readings of production of water, and other inconsistencies. The total water production and per capita production information obtained were related to data obtained from United States Weather Bureau bulletins on monthly average temperature and annual precipitation. These data for the City of Alhambra are depicted on Figure I6, and similar charts for the other cities investigated were prepared. By studying these charts depicting water consumption, precipitation, and temperature, the effects of precipitation and temperature upon the rates of urban water deliveries were evaluated. -156- FIGUREI6 7 ^' \ hi ^ u j\ \v II T^ 1 z T J- \! \ -f I i 12 I S u^za.uK r aocc zauo^a o-o UJ<3UJUJ^ D UJUJ4 3 UJUJ<3 UJUi 1993 1954 t95S 1956 VIONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURES, , PRECIPITATION F ALHAMBRA FIGURE16 U I ul J\ o q: a. ra y r I 11 ; V K z a. (J ir~ z tt.oirzQ,uarz q. o t » q. I949 1950 1951 1952 f E fc-R S 1953 igS-* 1953 1938 MONTHLY WATER PRODUCTION, MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURES, AND MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FOR CITY OF ALHAMBRA DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES other factors that may have influence on levels and rates of growth in unit urban water use were searched out and analyzed. These included the levels of personal income by areas j the selling price of water, and the industrial use of water. A brief simmary of the analysis of each factor effecting unit urban water use follows: Temperature . Evaluation of Figure l6 and similar charts showed that temperature variations influence monthly levels of water usage to a marked degree, with the yearly peak water usage occurring during the months experiencing the yearly peak temperat\ires . These charts also demonstrated that sxjmmer usage rates are from two to three times as great as winter rates, and inland cities, with higher average temperatizres, were found to have higher peak simmer usage rates than coastal cities. An average monthly peak of 11.3 per cent of yearly total water deliveries was found for the month of July for coastal cities while cities in the Upper Santa Ana River Basin show a July peak of IS-'^ per cent of the yearly total deliveries. In addition to the larger requirement for water for air conditioning and application to lawns and landscaping caused by high temperatvires, evaporation of water is also considerably influenced by temperature conditions. These effects of temperature on water usage were considered in projecting unit urban water use through the grouping of urban areas into regions of similar temperature conditions and studying the characteristic water usage patterns in each of these regions. The areas within each region are described on Table 3^, pages 163 and iGk. -157- other factors that may have influence on levels and rates of growth in unit urban water use were searched out and analyzed. These included the levels of personal income by areas, the selling price of water, and the industrial use of water. A brief summary of the analysis of each factor effecting unit urban water use follows; Temperatiire . Evaluation of Figure l6 and similar charts showed that temperature variations influence monthly levels of water usage to a marked degree, with the yearly peak water usage occurring during the months experiencing the yearly peak temperatures. These charts also demonstrated that summer usage rates are from two to three times as great as winter rates, and inland cities, with higher average temperatures, were found to have higher peak summer usage rates than coastal cities. An average monthly peak of 11.3 per cent of yearly total water deliveries was foimd for the month of July for coastal cities while cities in the Upper Santa Ana River Basin show a July peak of 13.^ per cent of the yearly total deliveries. In addition to the larger requirement for water for air conditioning and application to lawns and landscaping caused by high temperatures, evaporation of water is also considerably influenced by temperature conditions. These effects of temperatxire on water usage were considered in projecting unit urban water use through the grouping of urban areas into regions of similar temperature conditions and studying the characteristic water usage patterns in each of these regions. The areas within each region are described on Table 3^; pages l63 and l6k. -157- Prec Ipitatlon . It was observed that variations in precipitation appear to have very little effect on the average yearly water usage of cities within the southern California area due to the seasonal nature of this area's rainfall with more than 90 per cent of the annual rainfall occurring between November 1 and May 1. Daring this period, most plsjits, lawns, and trees are growing very slowly. The main effect of precipitation occurs in residential areas in the early fall or late spring. This effect is noticeable on charts comparing the use of water during the months of April and May, and October and November, to the precipitation which occurred diiring the corresponding period. However, above average precipitation occurring during these periods has little effect upon industrial and commercial use of water. The effect of variations in precipitation on water use in \irban areas, being the summation of effects on residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal uses, is slight and was not considered further in projections of unit urban water use. Personal Income . It was found that levels of personal income in various cities has a highly significant effect upon water usage. Cities with a large percentage of high income families use more water per capita than cities with lower per capita income. This conclusion is evident in the following tabulation of a group of cities which are all part of one large economic \mit with similar climatic conditions: -158- FIGURE 17 SAN MARINO BEVERLY HILLS 60 80 100 ,N INCOME OVER §5,000 ANNUALLY IT URBAN WATER USE AND IN CO MES IN 1950 FIGURE 17 < 120 SAN MARINO ^ 'beverly hill S / / BURBANK*/*'' LENDALE /PASADENA / •WHITTIER ELES / ^SANTA ANA PER CENT OP FAMILIES WITH AN INCOME OVER $5,000 ANNUALLY RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN UNIT URBAN WATER USE AND URBAN FAMILY INCOMES IN 1950 DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES 1950 1950 Unit water Percentage use, in of families 1950 gallons with an income Median per capita over $5,000 family Cities per day 270 per year income San Marino 81.0 $9>286 Beverly Hills 250 61.0 6,kQ9 Glendale 185 36.9 U,112 Bvirbank 183 31.9 ^,039 Pasadena 173 30.7 3,676 Los Angeles 157 27.7 3,575 Santa Ana 138 21.7 3,376 These data are shown on Figure 17. As can be seen, there is a fairly direct relationship between personal incane levels ajid the average per capita consumption of water. This is due to several reasons, including larger residential lots in areas with high income levels, the increased use of household appliances in high income areas which consume large quantities of water, and a lack of concern for the size of water bills when consumers are in the higher income brackets. In 1950, 71.8 per cent of the families in the United States had incomes of less than $5,000 per year, and by 195^^ this had decreased to 58.2 per cent. This trend, evident in the period 1950-5^, has been continuing in the United States throughout the last 50 years. The Committee for Economic Development* has estimated that by 1975 "the disposable income of the average family, after payment of all tajces, would be about $7; 100^ expressed in dollars of I956 purchasing power. This represents an increase of 3^ per cent over the 1956 average family disposable income of $5,300. This trend was assigned to continue and, as part of the over -all economic assumptions made * "Economic Growth in the United States, Its Past and Future" February, 1958, by the Research and Policy Committee of the Committee for Economic Development. -159- 1950 1950 Unit water Percentage use, in of families 1950 gallons with an income Median per capita over $5,000 f ami ly Cities per day 270 per year income San Marino 81.0 $9,286 Beverly Hills 250 61.0 6,i+89 Glendale 185 36.9 U,ii2 Burbank 183 31.9 ^,039 Pasadena 173 30.7 3,676 Los Angeles 157 27.7 3,575 Santa Ana 138 21.7 3,376 These data are shown on Figure 17- As can be seen, there is a fairly direct relationship between personal income levels and the average per capita consumption of water. This is due to several reasons, including larger residential lots in areas with high Income levels, the increased use of household appliances in high income areas which consume large quantities of water, and a lack of concern for the size of water bills when consumers are in the higher income brackets. In 1950, 71.8 per cent of the families in the United States had incomes of less than $5,000 per year, and by 195^> this had decreased to 58.2 per cent. This trend, evident in the period 1950-5^, has been continuing in the United States throughout the last 50 years. The Committee for Economic Development* has estimated that by 1975 the disposable income of the average family, after payment of all taxes, would be about $7,100, expressed in dollars of I956 purchasing power. This represents an increase of 3^ per cent over the 1956 average family disposable income of $5,300. This trend was assumed to continue and, as part of the over-all economic assumptions made * "Economic Growth in the United States, Its Past and Future" February, 1958, by the Research and Policy Committee of the Committee for Economic Development. -159- for the investigation of water demands, it was assumed that the average disposable family income in terms of 1957 dollars will ahout double during the study period. This increase in income will have a definite effect upon the unit urban water use and supports a projection thereof based on the historical increase. An indication of the effect of this assumption on the relative importance of water bills in the average family budget is apparent in the fact that water would have to cost about $i<-00 per acre-foot to approximate two per cent of the assumed average family income in the year 2020, which is about the same percentage that water bills are of the present- day average family income. Selling Price of Water. Within the range of values of water use found in the various cities studied, cost of water generally did not appear to have any noticeable effect on use. However, it was found that, following an increase in water charges, usage was temporarily reduced. It was also noted that, after a period of time, the per capita use rose to equal or exceed the previous rate. In areas receiving a flat -rate type of water service (unmetered), the rate of usage is generally higher than in metered areas, indicating that there may be an upper limit on 'onit water use where cost is not a factor. However, it was assumed that water service would be on a metered basis throughout the investigational area with the resulting unit water use being less than any upper limit. Industrial VJater Use . The average industrial use of water per acre is about three times greater than unit use per acre in residential areas. However, some industries using water for processing goods have ex- tremely high ranges of water use, which exceed, in some cases, 1,000 acre-feet ■l60- per acre, while those industries wherein the only use of water is for utility and sanitary purposes have quite low rates of water use. The data collected on urban water usage includes data from cities having little or no industry as well as from cities containing high levels of industrial development. In analyzing these data, it was observed that, in general, the degree of industrialization does not materially affect the range of per capita water consumption which reflects all uses within the urban areas. This is apparently a result of the dilution of the effect of industrial water use in cities such as Los Angeles, Pasadena, and Glendale, by the large amount of domestic water deliveries coupled with the absence of extremely high water-using industrial plants. As these conditions are expected to prevail in the future tiiroiighout all urban areas in the southern California area, industrial water use may be treated as a part of the over-all urban water use in projecting units of use. The projected units of use become more accurate as the area for which the projections are being made becomes suf- ficiently large so that it contains a well developed, diversified economy. As most of the study units and subxmits thereof analyzed in this study are considered to contain or develop such an economy, the projections of unit urban water use were based on the assumption that no unusual effects of localized industrial development on unit water consumption need be projected. Thus, the projected urban water requirements include the amounts necessary for future industrial developments. -161- Projection of Unit Urban Water Use After analyzing all the parameters affecting unit urban water use, as discussed in the preceding paragraphs, and reviewing the available tech- nical literature on the subject, the historical trends in unit urban water use were projected to the year 2020. The historical data on unit \irban water use, covering a base period from 1930 to 1955> were used in develop- ing a weighted average trend for each temperature zone. Computation of Historical Trend . The weighted average unit urban water use in each temperature zone was calculated for the years 1930 and 1955' Average rates of water use by each city in the temperature zone were obtained for these years by averaging the rates for the three years nearest tne date desired. By this procediore, any irregularities in urban water deliveries due to variations ia tne weather were minimized. These average rates were then divided by the population of each city at the respective times, resulting in the unit urban water use in each city. The unit urban water use, by cities, was then divided by the ratio between each city's population and the total population of all the sampled cities in each zone, and the products of this step were added together to produce the weighted average unit urban water use at the particular time. The derivation of these values for the years 1930 and 1955 are shown for each temperature zone on Tables 3^ and 35; and the resulting historical trends are presented on Figure l6. 'The effect of temperature on \init urban water use may be noted in that the reuikings of the zones by increasing rates of imit urban water use is identical with their rajikings by mean annual temperatures. Also, the rate of increase in unit urban water use was observed to be least in the zones with the most temperate temperature. -162- O OJ i-l -H >> 0) ■P - Ki 05 Pi id > W) 05 'd o •P Ci C X! OS -H •H Sh 0) ft 0) :3 to :5 :3 u U i) (U Pi >5 ■p o ON-d- novo OJ r— ^ LTN OOJLTNOOJooOrO c +3 r-< O 03 d 05 -rH 0) l/N(MCX) aMrNr^ LrM/> OJ -P -P -H CO OnCQ^ oIMD lAOO O O 05 -P • •••••#• p ^ -H Ot— roOCVJOJOr-l ?-l 3 O CO 5 Pi,0 o Lr>OOirNOjrOf— ON •H onoocooji-hltncvj O -P ON O O OJ oovo O-d- ro 05 •\»\»\»S»N»\»\*^ 0\r-l 0-d-0v00r0^-l>- r-< ;3 H on iTN on PO ^ P< iH O •\ Pi !-< 0) >! >-CO OJ UNOOOVOCO r-l OJ J- u> OJ on itnS C^ ^1 0) i-lr-lr-lr-lr-lr-lr-IOJ (d > ;d u < 3 Pi PO 0) 1 1 1 V£l 1 1 1 1 -P o5 on d 1 1 1 LTN 1 1 1 1 •H -P ON o 1 1 1 r-l ' 1 1 1 d -H r-H ts! 3 Pi 05 . . •• r-l tH O oi o OJ -p 1 on O VD 1 MD I f— Jh OO w 1 OJ on u^ 1 OJ 1 -* to 0) ON o5 1 r^ r-l r-l 1 r-l 1 OJ OJ Pi r-l O d O H M • ■ •• 05 a > o r-i t--OJ OJ-CO C—LTNt— r-i on r-ion-d-LrNrHOJLr\irN r-t r-> ON r-lr-lr-lr-lr-lr-lr-IOJ 05 05 ,-1 13 bO c! ■ ■ -• d d o5 -H o CO O CO 1 rH MD O- O oo r-l on u\ 1 OJ J- LfN-d- (U ON rH r-l r-l 1 rH rH rH OJ to m .-1 ol :3 ^ • • .• 0) u > (U ON [:— 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 < -p OJ rH 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 s ON rH 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 > r-l u '■? ■P u •H CS o w 0) 0) bO bO 05 01 0} d O O >< h^ t^ O U M W CO w OJ OJ o 8 d o OJ l/N ON OMTN OJ on t-- OJ H on OJ o o on J- rH rH MD -* r-i OJ ON OJ rH OJ t^ LfN LTN ON OJ rH J- f- m J- LTN-d" rH CO tr— OJ ON OJ O ON OJ u> OJ OJ CO .H 05 ^- o5 d > O OJ DO do) rH TJ 0) OJ o5 0) 0) d 05 d 05 fn ^ rH bO 05 d ;h 0-1 ^ ,P o5 -d -5 S t:) [ii x! ^ d (U o5 -P Xi !H (U 03 [ii to d 3 < ;3 rH O 05 05 O pq o t-l PM CO CO o LTN o o o o o r-l OJ OJ VD O VD f- O on o [--VD C^ O CO VD on LTN t— -ct- VD ^ O o LTMr- OJ •\ •> •\ »\ •s •% "v (3N (U ONVD OJ ^ VO t— on o CO d OJ rHVO UN C— rH VO CU O OJ is! rH 0) rH on CO J- CO OJ LTN O (-t OJ rH r^ l/N J- LTN IXN 05 r-i rH rH rH r-l r-l r-l > rH 0) •rH 1 CO 1 1 1 1 1 u 1 rH 1 1 1 1 1 Xi 1 r-l 1 1 1 i 1 a! C5 d o5 1 1 CO OJ 1 on 1 CO 1 1 1 OJ H rH 1 Lf\ 1 1 rH 1 -cJ § o VO 1 CO VD rH b-OJ -d rH 1 m irN-:t LfNj- d H 1 H r-i r-i r^ r-i d ^ (U C=^ I^ 1 VO VD rH 1 OJ CVI 1 OO ^ -:t 1 LTN d r-l 1 r-l r-i r-i 1 rH 05 CO OJ rH 1 1 1 I J- 1 UTN rH 1 rH CO EH O EH -163- -p d ■H u o a 5 cd cd ft -P -H o O aJ -P +i r-i -H U :3 o i ft^ d o •H O -P oo ai a\ r-l n-l 3 ft O ft d -d cd 0) ft ■P •H ft Cd o tt) ft r-4 r-t Cd Cd d d d a) -H 0) 0) bO w cd :3 0) ^ > 0) < -P -P •H o cd PO CM CO ON O r-l CM (U d O isl 0) o s I d) ft o iH 0) -P d cd >2 cu cd -P d cd w o ft ft O on rH O -4- Lr\ I vo O O I CM LTNVD rOMD ON O CO H O On CM tv-) fv-| J--* NO r^ H O ONCO OoONO-d- »v »v •s •s 00 O (M ONtr- d O o •H cd u Pi K w -16U- •H U O aS 0) r-l -p -P l-l •^^ >-5 (U -p Hi nJ ft d 0) 3 3 U > ft ,Q o •H IfN -p ft o ft -p •H M d o r-H i O 0) Oj bDTi I) Oj to 03 :3 +^ •rH 5^ ft (1) cd d -P o d o5 oJ > Jh >5 -P •r-l (1) m LA 0^ f— LfNt^ ONOOMD LPvrOLPiOJ 1^ ON OO t^ J- J- O CVJ ON o OJ r-IOnOJJ--^ rHOJ-4- -^CMCUOOCMOOcOt~-Wt^ MDoOr-lt— -d-OJVO^'^OLrN i-IONLrNOJiHrOOjOr-IH OOOOOOOOOO OOOOtrNOOOJVOMD OOO-^V-Dr-ILAfHVOf- ^ •^ "v •* OOoot~— t^CVjrOHO Lr\Ou> MD ON 1 I LPv r-l LA OJ I t-- OO I I CO VO r-l CM ' rH r-l I I r-l CVJ CQOOOJVDOOMD lOOCMt^ f— LTNCMc^voro icOcOir\ r-lr-ICMr-lr-lr-l Ir-lr-ICM V^lJ-COONLfNOCMLfNr— O VO LTNr-IOOf-J- LTNCO t^LTV r-lr-IOJr-lr-lr-lr-lr-lr-ICM m t 1 ro 1 1 CTN 1 1 1 \£l 1 1 -d- 1 1 ^ 1 1 1 r-l 1 1 r-l 1 1 rH 1 1 1 ^ ^ u Q) ft O u --^ ft u O !>5^ +i u tH 03 U M cd u 05 r-l to m td (d r-l 0) (D ^ •H •rl r-l rH TJ cd ^ ^1 W (D 2 o o d ^ hJ 1-^ M cd (d cd CO ^S S ro LTV J- J- LA CTs C/N r— r-^ (7N f-.cl- O • • • ■ • « « • • o r-l CO O r-l CM CM -d- I— CM CU on O CVJ r-l o o o o E-1 ONJ- LA LA J- VO o o t-- t^cO r-l CO CO LA C!N LA CK r-l r-l LA OJ r-l LA r-l I I r-l lA o ON o o o o o o o o o o o o o o ON (U VD O r-l O CO CO LA CA f- r-l d t^ LA CM O -^ CM oo ro C3N •. o *t •N *S •V -S »\ -V »* •\ -d- ts] -d- OJ-^ O t^VO LA ON CJN LA LA C7N r-l -4- CM rH rH rH f- ON tfl H LA H ON !>. r-l r-l C7NC0 ro C^ t^ CTNMD LA -^ rHCO CO ro ON LA LA r-l r-l OJ r-l r-\ r-t r-t r-t r-i 0) •H CJN^ O rH CO 1 1 O C5 -d- rH ON r-l CM r-l O oo 1 I MD OJ rH 1 1 rH d cd CO tJ CO-^ O ON O O CO t— -d- r-l CO t~-00 C3N^ -* cd r-l CM rH r-{ r-l r-t i-t r-\ O d cd O-d-cO \0 m\o ^ CO d LA CM t— CO ^ ON^ LA u rH CM rH r-> r-> r-l r-l r-\ Q) fo d cd 1 1 1 1 1 OJ 1 1 CO 1 1 1 1 1 CJN 1 1 CO EH O EH pLl CO CO -165- ON 5 w ^§ > in: w w o E < w & EH O Ixh o M Eh < w S in G ^H O ctf 0) -H -P +J rH . Ctf Cd P( Oi U hD a! t:! o •H :>, -P G x; cd bO ^ 0) 3 3 U (U (U P, in JJ rH O Ifl +-< ft Oh o o >1 ft ^ d o •H i;> 4^ LA (Tl CT\ 1-1 H ft o ft ' ' ttj b0 cd ■p ^H •H in 0) § d o ..^ lUi rH >5 o cd cd ^D bD'^ ir\ in ON 0) d ?H ^ :i •H w Cd LTN 3 -p L/N f-j •H ON a 5h ft r-i =i (U cd d -P o . . •• d cd ^ ;-! -4- (U LTN (U d ft ON hO Id r-1 cd. P ;h ^^ . • *• 0) =i !> m < -ir\ ON i-i ■p O d o > cd O S I 0) ft o ,-< 0) -p d cd 0) cd > cd .§ cd -P d cd w fn lU ft ft -* LfN J- CO CVI t^ r-l VO OJ r-1 H r-t CJO -:t MD CO LTN f>0 Lf\ J- CO rH OO LTNND OJ O f>0 LA LTN t^ f— OO -* -d- t— NO O rH LTN NO LTN CVJ t^ J- O rn r-H OJ OO rH o o o o o o o O LTN O UA OJ O O LTNCO LTN OJ CO LTN O »v •y »v •v »^ •x *\ r— J- f— CO LA OJ t-- rH rH J- NO CO OO O OJ f- X) ON LTN O NO LA CO CO OJ rH rH OJ H rH rH OJ OJ OJ rT) O O 0\ t~ r-t -^ NO LA ON ON ro (M r-t OJ rH rH rH OJ OJ OJ O oo OO-d- NO r-l f^ f— LA CO CO OJ rH rH OJ H rH rH CVJ OJ OJ 3 1 00 H m OJ OJ I 00 CO OJ rH O OJ 1 rH rH OJ OJ (^J NO OJ o o o o o OJ J- m OJ o fl •H -c) C/) u 0) Id ^ 0) d -P o 5S o •H cd d o VL, K c/: o -166- FIQURE 18 < a IX. UJ a. < O (T UJ a. v> z o _l < UJ CO a: UJ I- < ^ ^ A / / SAN FERNANDO-SAN GABRIEL VALLEYS ZONE 1 1 / HISTORICAL PROJECTED 1960 1960 YEAR 2000 2020 Q CL < O 340 q: UJ Q- CO Z 330 O < UJ to (£ UJ (- < 5 290 WHITEWATER COACHELLA ZONE p( s>. VPRESEN OF PAL T VALUE, ( * SPRINGS :iTY / / / I960 1980 2000 2020 YEAR IIT VALUES OF URBAN WATER USE CALIFORNIA AREAS FIQURE 18 COASTS L ZONE 200 ^ / ^ / / 140 120 / HIST ORICAL P ROJECTED I960 1960 YEAR / / / l\ / UPPER SANTA ANA VALLEY AND ANTELOPE -MOJAVE ZONE / / 1 / HIST DRICAL P 90JECTE0 1940 I960 19B0 2000 2020 YEAR ^ / h / / SAN FERNANDO-SAN GABRIEL VALLEYS ZONE 1 / HISTORICAL PROJECTED WHITEWATER COACHELLA ZONE \ ^PRESEN OF PAL T VALUE, ^ SPRINGS / / / / / 1940 I960 I9B0 2000 2020 YEAR HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED UNIT VALUES OF URBAN WATER USE FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AREAS Projected Unit Urban Water Use . The historical trends were extrapolated through the 60-year study period only after the net effect of the factors previously analyzed was appraised and reasonable modifications to the historical rates of increase were derived. The projected values of unit urban water use are as shown on Figure l6 and on Table 36. In addition to the projections made for the three temperature zones, Table 36 includes forecasts of unit urban water use made for areas in San Diego County as reported in Bulletin No. 6l, the Whitewater-Coachella Seirvice Area, and the Kern County Sei^ice Area. Due to the paucity of historical data in the Whitewater-Coachella Service Area, the forecast of unit urban water use was based on the present water consumption in the City of Palm Springs of 350 gallons per capita per day, and the rates of unit urban water use were projected as increasing from 300 gallons per capita per day to this latter value by the year 2020. In the Kern County Service Area, many of the present urban water systems are operating on a flat rate basis, including service in the City of Bakersfield, and the projections of unit urban water use assume all metered services. Accordingly, it was necessary to make adjustments to the historical data in this area in deriving the forecast. -167- Projected Unit Urban Water Use . The historical trends were extrapolated through the 60-year study period only after the net effect of the factors previously analyzed was appraised and reasonable modifications to the historical rates of increase were derived. The projected values of unit urban water use are as shown on Figure l8 and on Table 36. In addition to the projections made for the three temperatiire zones, Table 36 includes forecasts of unit urban water use made for areas in San Diego County as reported in Bulletin No. 61, the Whitewater-Coachella Service Area, and the Kern County Service Area. Due to the paucity of historical data in the Whitewater-Coachella Service Area, the forecast of unit urban water use was based on the present water consiomption in the City of Palm Springs of 350 gallons per capita per day, and the rates of unit urban water use were projected as increasing from 300 gallons per capita per day to this latter value by the year 2020. In the Kern County Service Area, many of the present urban water systems are operating on a flat rate basis, including service in the City of Bakersfield, and the projections of unit urban water use assume all metered services. Accordingly, it was necessary to make adjustments to the historical data in this area in deriving the forecast. -167- P ■►> -H dl t, t/i 3 0) o T3 r-l O -ri V O 0) U ClC E d 0) C= U Q s 0) (S ■H flj t £ 0) «C d ^ S4; s q o c 3 a o s :3 < t, ■!-> _ a ■iJ d (-1 Gj n. r-j a 0) u d o : 0)0,0. k a I. O O 3 c T^ oi O U -H 'C ft 9 Cl r-i a a! " o o 0^ a 0) >1 +^ d 1. -1 t. a! d >i d d a a d U j m r^ ro ro CM T -^ ■<»■ -^T -^ < ,-( CSJ CSJ CM CM CM CM CM CM CM C>J C\) CM CM o o o o o o o en o o o o o o ^ CM CM CM CM CM CM r- m CO ^ o V ^ ir> r^- CO o CM CM CM ,-1 ^ _, CM CM CM CJ O ^ CO CM O O '^ in -^c lo cr» o o ^ i-l i-l r-l rH CM CM '^ p^ CD O »-l »JD CM ro "^ in r^ CD CD CT> CO CO C^ O C*^ C^ CO O O O O Q in O O r-f CM ;-0 -M" ^ in ro ro ro ro rn ro t*> CM Ch O lO -H r-l ^ in "-O CD CO o^ cji o^ CM CM CM CM CM CM CM in o o in o o o CM V in J^ ^ "^ 'X) CM CM CM CM CM CM C\i CM in vc a3 n C7> Oi CM f»J ■ --H >] a) o. a. t. d c -fJ d ^ a? o. rH o. a! I, 9 «X> P^ CO lO CM ID ^ CO Ol O ^ CM CM CO ,-1 — t CM CnJ CM CM CM to lO ^ CM CO CM 1X3 UU r^ CO C^ <7^ O O ,-( rH ^ r-( ^ CM CM o o o o o o o ID r*«. CO CT> O r-< CM Ot ov c^ en o O O rH fH ^ rH CM CM CM c in C Ci tn ir. ai V L« in t- n. >i .V, Cj m D. (T* t3 c .Q «- W t^ ■H M ^ Tl c ■H crt « W O ^ r-i 'J »H 0) c m V ,c •H s: t^ » t- -168- A principal objective in these forecasts was that the projected values must be reasonable and conservative. As an indication of the ful- filling of this objective, the maximum values of unit urban water use in each area, as projected, are approximately equal to existing values in one or more of the sampled cities in the respective areas. The United States Department of Commerce, in its Business Service Bulletin No. 136, dated January, 1956, estimated that the average United States urban water usage would increase from 155 gallons per capita per day in 1955 to approximately 200 gallons per capita per day by 1975* As may be seen, this rate of increase which is projected for the nation is considerably greater than the rates projected in this report. Projection of Net Unit Urban Water Use Estimates were derived of the present and probable future ratios of consumptive use to applied water in urban areas. These ratios were developed through an analysis of each subunit and through application of data reported in State Water Resources Board Bulletin No. 2. The resulting ratios varied from 50 per cent for completely residential areas to k2 per cent for areas containing a land usage pattern of industrial, commercial, and residential areas in economic balance. That portion of the applied water which was not consumptively used was then analyzed by sutunits to determine its availability for recapture. This necessitated consideration of the geologic structure \inderlying each subunit as well as the existing and probable future procedures for dis- posal of urban wastes. That portion of the urban water applied to lawns, shrubbery, and landscaping which is not lost by evapo -transpiration and thus -169- percolates below the root zones may enter ground water basins in areas with underlying pervious material. Uiider these conditions, all of the applied water that was not consumptively used was assumed to be available for re -use. However, in such areas which are presently sev/ered, or which are expected to be, it was estimated that only 10 per cent of the applied water vould be available for re -use. In areas which are underlain by impervious materials and not tributary to a free ground water basin, percolation cannot occur and all of the applied water was assumed to be consumptively used or un- available for re -use. Most of the urban centers along the coast, from Santa Barbara to San Diego, are connected to outfall sewers conveying much of the waste products of urban culture to the ocean for disposal. Kven. inland cities in Los Angeles and Orange Counties are now connected to these ocean disposal systems. With continued urbanization as forecast in Chapter III, many areas which are not now connected to ocean outfall sev;ers will very likely be sewered in the future. This will probably occur in the inland valleys, such as the 'Jpper Santa Ana Valley, as there is a sharp a-wareness of the coming necessity for ocean disposal of sewage plant effluent in these areas. During the course of investigation, a s-orvey of informed opinion in the Upper Santa Ana Valley was made and used in estimating the timing of construction and the build-up in use of en ocean outfall sewer from this valley. Similarly, estimates of time of inititil construction and build-up in use of ocean out- fall sewers were made for other areas . -170- Based upon these analyses, values of net unit urban water use were derived for each subunit in a manner similar to that presented in Tables 37^ 38> and 39; for typical areas in the southern California area. Table ^0 presents these values for each subunit by decades to the year 2020 in terms of gallons per capita per day and Table Ul presents the same data in terms of acre -feet per capita per year. -171- TABLE 37 DERIVATION OF FUTURE VALUES OF NET UNIT URBAN WATER USE FOR COASTAL RIVERSIDE AND SAN BERNARDINO COUUTIES Effect of ocean outfall 0.i+2x ; Year Unit urban water use Gallons: Acre- : per :feet per; capita; capita ; per day: per year; (1) : (2) : sewer ; Area : Area ; not con-; con- : nected ; nected Per cent: Per cent; of total: of total; (3) ': (M : column (3)^ Per cent O.9OX column; (^)^ Per cent (^) : (6) Net unit urban water use Per : Gallons: Acre- ;cent of: per ;feet per urban : capita: capita water :per day: per year (T)c : (8) : (9) i960 225 0.252 100 k2 k2 95 0.106 1970 2i+0 .269 100 k2 42 101 .113 1980 250 .280 100 k2 k2 105 .118 1990 255 .286 62 38 26 3h 60 153 .172 2000 260 .291 20 80 8 72 80 208 .233 2010 260 .291 100 90 90 23h .262 2020 260 .291 100 90 90 23U .262 Portion of urban water consumptively used in areas which are not connected to ocean outfall sewers and are tributary to free ground water basins is estimated to be h2 per cent. Portion of urban water discharged through ocean outfall sewer and consijmptively used in urban areas tributary to free ground water basins is estimated to be 90 per cent. Column 7 is sum of columns 5 and 6. -172- TABLE 38 DERIVATION OF FUTURE VALUES OF NET UNIT URBAN WATER USE FOR SANTA MARIA, OJAI AND SANTA CLARA RIVER VALLEYS Year Effect of ocean outfall sewer Unit urban vater use : Area ;not con- ; nected Gallons: Acre- ; per :feet per; capita: capita ; per day: per year; (1) : (2) ; Per cent of total (3) Area con- nected Per cent of total {h) 0.i+2x column (3)^ Per cent (5) O.9OX column Per cent (6) Net unit urban water use Per : Gallons; Acre- cent of: per :feet per urban : capita: capita water :per day: per year (7)^ : (8) : (9) i960 166 0.186 100 k2 U2 70 0.078 1970 167 .197 100 h2 42 74 .083 1980 186 .208 100 k2 k2 78 .087 1990 192 .215 62 38 26 Ih 60 115 .129 2000 198 .222 20 80 8 72 80 158 .178 2010 202 .226 100 90 90 182 .203 2020 206 .231 100 90 90 185 .208 Portion of applied water consumptively used in urban areas which are not connected to ocean outfall sewers and tributary to free ground water basins is estimated to be U2 per cent. Portion of applied water discharged through ocean outfall sewer and consumptively used in urban areas tributary to free ground water basin is estimated to be 90 per cent. Column 7 is sum of columns 5 and 6. -173- TABLE 39 DERIVATION OF FUTURE VALUES OF ITET UNIT URBAN WATER USE FOR OXNARD PLAIN IN VEI^TURA COUNTY, SOUTH COASTAL SANTA BARBARA COUNTY, AND WEST BASIN IN LOS ANGELES COUNTY^ Year Unit urtan : water use Gallons : per : capita : per day : (1) : Ac re -feet : per ; capita : per year : (2) : Net unit urtan water use Per cent of iirban water Gallons per capita per day (M Ac re -feet per capita per year (5) 19bO 166 0.186 100 166 0.186 1970 176 .197 100 176 .197 i960 186 .208 100 186 .208 1990 192 .215 100 192 .215 2000 198 .222 100 198 .222 2010 202 .226 100 202 .226 2020 206 .231 100 206 .231 a. Excluding Oxnard Forebay and area tributary thereto. b. Total urban area is assumed to overlie soils with low permeability allowing no re -use of return flows, therefore, connection to ocean outfall sewer has no effect on water require- ments. Return flows percolating to the deep aquifers are considered to be insignificant when compared with to total water requirements. -17^- TABLE lj-0 PROJECTED VALUES OF NET UNIT URBAN WATER (in gallons per capita per day) USE^ Area : i960 ; 1970 : 198O : 199O : 2000 : 2010 : 2020 San Luis Obispo Service Area Submits 1, 13, 1^^ 16, 18 166 Subunit 17 70 Subunit 2 through 12, 19, 21 70 Santa Barbara Service Area Subunits 26,33 through 39 Subunit s 22, 29 Subunits 23, 30 Subunits 24, 25, 27, 28, 31, 32 70 Ventura County Service Area Subunits ^+2 (West of Foster Park), U3 (Oxnard Plain), kk (Cone jo and Oxnard Plain), k8 166 Subunits U2 (East of Foster Park), i+3 (Except Oxnard Plain) 70 Subunit hk (Las Posas and Santa Rosa) Subunit kk (Simi Valley) Subunits k6, k'J Southern California Coastal Plain And Coastal Sem Diego County Service Area Los Angeles County Subunits 61 (San Fernando Valley), 62 through 67, 75, 76 178 Subunits 6I (Coastal Plain), 68 through 73, 7^ (Pressure Area) I66 Subunit 7^ (Montebello Forebay) 1^9 Subunit 59 70 176 7^ Ik Ik 186 78 78 192 115 81 198 158 83 78 81 83 176 186 78 192 115 198 189 198 207 176 186 192 212 198 202 182 85 85 202 202 206 185 87 166 176 186 192 198 202 206 70 Ik 78 115 158 182 185 70 ■Jk 78 81 119 162 185 87 206 158 182 185 70 Ik 78 81 119 162 185 70 Ik 78 81 83 121 165 70 Ih 78 81 83 65 87 216 216 206 158 167 173 178 182 185 Ih 78 115 158 182 185 -175- PROJECTED VALUES OF NET UNIT URBAN WATER USE^ (continued) (in gallons per capita per day) I960 : 1970 : 1900 : 1990 : 2000 : 2010 : 2020 Area Orange County Subunits 77, 78, 79, 80 (Pressure Area), 81 through 8k Subunit 80 (Nonpressure Area) Riverside and San Bernardino Counties Subunits Upper Santa Ana Basin San Diego County Subunits Metropolitan San Diego Area Subunits Remainder of Coastal San Diego County Antelope -Mo jave Service Area Whitewater-Coachella Service Area Subunits 169, 170, 171 Subunit 172 Kern County Service Area 166 176 186 192 198 202 206 li+9 158 167 173 178 182 185 95 101 105 153 208 23^ 23^ 140 151+ 168 182 196 200 200 190 200 200 200 200 200 200 95 101 105 107 109 109 109 126 300 130 310 13^ 320 139 330 lii3 3^0 3h5 IU7 350 225 271 291 308 322 339 3kk Net imit urban water use - the water measured at the input to a municipal system needed to provide for all beneficial uses and for all irrecoverable losses incidental to such uses for existing or estimated conditions at the point in time under study, expressed on a unit per capita basis. -176- .186 .197 .208 .215 .222 .226 .231 .078 .083 .087 .129 .178 .203 .208 .078 .083 .087 .090 .133 .181 .208 TABLE Ul PROJECTED VALUES OF NET UNIT URBAN WATER USE* (in acre-feet per capita per year) Area : I96O : 1970 : 1980 : 1990 : 2000 ; 2010 : 2020" San Luis Obispo Service Area Subunits 1, 13, 1^, I6, 18 0.186 0.197 0.208 0.215 0.222 0.226 0.231 Submit 17 .078 .083 .087 .129 .178 .203 .208 Subunit 2 through 12, 19, 21 .078 .083 .087 .090 .093 .095 .097 Santa Barbara Service Area Subunits 26, 33 through 39 Subunits 22, 29 Subunits 23, 30 Subunits 2k, 25, 27, 28, 31, 32 .078 .083 .087 .090 .093 .095 .097 Ventura County Service Area Subunits k2 (West of Foster Park), k3 (Oxnard Plain), kk (Cone jo and Oxnard Plain), k& .186 .197 -208 .215 .222 .226 .231 Subunits k2 (East of Foster Park), k3 (Except Oxnard Plain) .078 .083 .087 .129 .178 .203 .208 Subunit kk (Las Posas and Santa Rosa) Subunit kk (Simi Valley) Subunits k6, klf Southern California Coastal Plain And Coastal San Diego Covinty Service Area Los Angeles County Subunits 61 (San Fernando Valley) 62 through 67, 75, 76 .200 .212 .221 .232 .237 •2k2 .2^+2 Subunits 61 (Coastal Plain), 68 through 73, 7^ (Pressxire Area) .I86 .197 .208 .215 .222 .226 .231 Sub\init 7U (Montebello Forebay ) . 167 Subunit 59 .078 .078 .083 .087 .090 .133 .181 .208 .078 .083 .087 .090 .093 .136 .185 .078 .083 .087 .090 .093 .095 .097 .177 .187 .19^ .200 .20U .208 .083 .087 .129 .178 .203 .208 -177- PROJECTED VALUES OF NET UNIT URBAN WATER USE^ (continued) (in acre-feet per capita per year) Area : I960 : 1970 : 1980 : 1990 : 2000 : 2010 : 2020 Orange County Subunits 77, 78, 79, 80 (Pressure Area), 8l through Qk 0.186 0.197 0.208 0.215 0.222 0.226 0.231 Suhunit 80 (Nonpressiire Area) .167 .177 .187 .191+ .200 .201+ .208 Riverside and San Bernardino Counties Subunits Upper Santa Ana Basin .106 .113 .118 .172 .233 .262 .262 San Diego County Subunits Metropolitan San Diego Area .157 .173 .188 .201+ .220 .221+ .221+ Subunits Remainder of Coastal San Diego County .212 .22U .221+ .221+ .221+ .221+ .221+ Antelope -Mo jave Service Area .106 .113 .118 .120 .122 .122 .122 Whitewater-Coachella Service Area Subunits 169, 170, 171 .132 .141 .1^7 .150 .13h .15h .15^ Subunits 172 .315 .336 .350 .358 .366 .366 .366 Ksm County Service Area .253 .30if .326 .31+5 .361 .380 .385 a. Net unit urban water use - the water measured at the input to a municipal system needed to provide for all beneficial uses and for all irrecoverable losses incidental to such uses for existing or estimated conditions at the point in time under study, expressed on a unit per capita basis. -178- Net Urbag Water Requirements Projected net urban water requirements were derived by application of the values of net unit iirbem water use, as tabulated in Tables 40 and ^1, to the population projections by subunits. The resulting net urban water requirements for seirvice areas in the southern California area are set forth in Table 42. As previously stated, unit water requirements are frequently stated on an acre-foot per acre basis. To provide a means of comparison between the results of this investigation, based on population, and others which have been made on an areal basis, the net urban water requirements as presented in Table k2 were divided by the projected urban land requirements as pre- sented in Table 23 in Chapter III. These calculated values of net unit urban water use in terms of acre-feet per acre per annum are presented in Table U3. -179- CO O Q O o O o o •H O o o o o o o :i p< o o o o o o o h^ M •\ •s -\ •\ -\ •H CO r-t 1^ •-I ON t^ ITN d XI rH r-i m UTN ON m aj o r-\ .. .. .. en .. .. ct) o o O O O o o a! U o o o O o o o -P aJ o o o O o o o d ^ •\ •V •\ •V •^ •V «^ 03 ^1 rH rH oo CVJ oo CVl CO ^^ cvj OO ■^ MD ON oo t^ rH r-{ V tt) o o o O Q Q Q ft (U o o o O Q Q Q o > o O o O o o Q rH Ctf •^ •S •\ •\ •V •\ *^ s (1) •'-3 t- t- VO en c— CO r-f +" Q rH ro CO ^ ON m f— m ^. . rH rH CVJ CVJ B ^ o o o O O o o § ffi 1 1 r-l o o o O o o o 3 ^ 0) u c o « CO oJ •• • • •• •• • • fn 0) Q o Q O o o o OJ Is 0) ^^ o o o o o o o -^ ft o o o o o o o ^§ -^ •\ *s •\ •\ •V «i^ a -P ir\ ro f- rH OO ITN CVJ § O rH r-t C\J m EH p3 m 1 .. • > • • • • .> • • ■• g^ -P o O o o o o 8 u O -P 0) I d o o O o o o o gs 03 d V O 03 u ■M o o o o o o o (U •iH cd U -P 5 o o o o o <3 Q j3 o ■P ■p •H ■P •s *v •V •» •s •^ •p (H W d 0) Q On CTN r-i o C7N >-* c— 13 •rH s •H o3 ;^ oo rn rH o\ •-t o CVJ o rH o3 O d O ITN CM C3N J- rH VO C7N CO cd u d U 03 O •v •V •s •V •\ •• o CM CD rH O 0? O CVJ o o J- 8 ^ J- o >2 O O o o Q o F +^ O O o o o o o ^ d •\ •\ •^ ,q 3 o a\ ro CJn 00 o u^ « o ir\ t— O m ON CO VO u rH rH r-t CVJ OO h s O o o o o o o fl) MD t^ CO CTn o r-i s JH ON C7N C7N C^ o o rH rH rH rH CVI CVI CVJ -180- TABLE k3 DERIVED VALUES OF NET UNIT URBAN WATER USE (in acre -feet per acre per aanim) I960 : 1970 : 19tiO : 1990 : 2000 : 2010 : 2020 Area San Luis Obispo Service Area Santa Barbara Service Area Ventura Coiinty Service Area Southern California Coastal Plain and Coastal San Diego County Service Area Los Angeles County Orange County San Diego County Riverside County San Bernardino County Kern County Service Area Antelope -Mo jave Service Area Whitewater-Coachella Service Area 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 i.i+ 1.7 1.8 1.3 1.3 1.3 i.i^ 1.5 1.5 1.5 0.9 1.1 1.1+ 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.3 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.2 2,h 2.5 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.5 2.2 2.6 2.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.5 2.2 2.6 2.6 1.5 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.k 2.6 2.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 l.if 1.5 1.6 1.7 -181- Unit Irrigation Water Use For many years, the Department of Water Resources has compiled data, made field investigations, and studied unit values of water use for various crops climatically adapted to the investigational axea. Unit values, both of consumptive use of applied irrigation water and of total applied water, were obtained from these prior data as published in State Water Resources Board Bulletins No. 2, 12, 15, and l8, for the various subiinits and are tabulated on Table hh. In areas where return flows from applied irrigation water would not be recovered for re-use, imit values of total applied water were utilized. In areas overlying unconfined groiind water basins, where excess irrigation application would return to the underground basins and be available for re- use, water requirements were based on estimates of consumptive use of applied water. In portions of the unconfined ground water basins situated in the Kern County Seirvice Area, the moisture content of the dewatered zone was found to be well below the value of specific retention. Specific retention is the moisture content that the soil is capable of holding against the force of gravity. Where this condition exists, water percolating down from the s\arface must first increase the moisture content of the soil up to the specific retention before any water can percolate to the zone of usable storage. Percolating water utilized to bring moistiire content up to the point of specific retention is not available for futtire withdrawals. -182- " ' t ^ ( a. Q> o •D U c S5o 1 o o m +^ w a) rt m ■H 3 c s -»-> -o i. o a. Q. 0) I a) < .-I 03 a s i > © a -H +^ a a) rH (d 3 a * T3 t. I V a; CL-r-t +> < r-l Oj a S ■H -f" 3 I OJ (D < «-t I o o 3 ^ ® Q. ^ . U w +^ 0) 03 i-H 03 3 at " X> ti " I I u o O 3 ■'^ O Q. -H -P O n +^ 03 03 r-4 03 3 a. t " " " -S «1 " I 0) o ! 1 ( 1 o • r-t j o • o • CO 1 1 t in • rH ! • CO • rH o • o 1 in • o • O 00 • o • O m O 1 1 • o • O rH • rH CO • o CO • O • o • • CM • >-* • ,-1 • rH O • CM • CO c rH • rH CO • o CO • (-1 1 1 O • >-* • 1 1 CNJ OJ O r^ CO ro * • CO OJ r-\ r-t i~i O CM CM r- r^ • • • « rH rH O O rH rH I I I i I o o O ^ • • • CM (O CM CM ^ i£> 00 Ol • • • • CO ^ (M CO ^ ^ OJ cu « • • • CNJ CM CM CM in in «o in rH (-H r^ lA ol « * 5 U r^ as a c r- a> o "6 s, c^ CM < t-t < CO CO ot o 3 tn ^1 ^ Iff > o o l/l +3 ■»-> o o •rf a o ■H t CO o 1 ^9 o a O ,-1 CM >. - ' — m « rH aj CO CM ■►> CM 9 ■H ^ CM t, CO CM O 0} O 0. n t 3 -H -H 2§ a -n o •H tH 1 a oj £ £ 3 ^ lO 3 c-T ^ ^ ^ 3 3 ♦^ 3 3 •H 3 3 S" w §"" C 1/) in & -H §5 • • CO ^ f f t.-^ o o CM CM CO CO • • CO CO ^ in • • o o r*- CO • • o o 1 j 1 1 1 1 o • CO CO • OJ O • in • • CO CO i5, 5, 3 ( * in CM i-H O rH O tH ' •& "IS 3 O p I, ^ x: Ol >i5 -H .-t O CD O C. rH 0) ^ O -H t3 ^ >^ c 3 +^ -< X) :3 m tn m 3 OJ 3 5" §" i O C (O C rH •H 3 O 3 '-' O i3 rH jO rH 3 3 t/i to (/) -183- B ^ 3 -O &. 3 in ■t' g § > a t -M © a. 3 I « a. -^ ^ .-I Q. 3 -H a) 3^»: . o a c s : a] u 3 iH « o. -I V o. » i.5 > 1 OJ Q. -H +» < ^ a) a. 0) o "O u §> I o

CL •*H +> 3 at .. « « « < .-H OJ i^ 3 as 0."H +* ^ rH aJ « „ f^ 2 „ « I " ^ - " - 0.0)0 -at, s > I « ® n -H 0) 6. ■•H +> 3 o. s 3 • O -H 3 •o t. p. -H V < n-1 CC n, i E > I 9 I » 0) to +* n oJ ^ ^ ? ■o t. 1 « a> a-^ +> <» O. -H -p m 0] rH 0) 3 Q. * ** T! u 1 a; 0) n +^ < i-i a a * o o o o CO CM • • in in O CO • • CO Cm III too O (} c CO £ £ ^ X) .Q 4> 3 3 +> (rt l/l C O CM • • • Cvi Csl S 73 v^ o £ S o > tH < o ♦^ (. o ^ 3 o. o a • • i o ^' T ^ -H <« % n c t' •H o 4) T3 +J o CO 0) 1 1 a •H ! 1 § ■H s a ^& o u o 1 1 o ^fe 1 1 1 01 XI o. o * t. to 0) ^ '. 1 at ^ •p e ^ »H C > •-H 1 0) a < -rH XI 3- -g O a a O^ 1 9 £- • 1 ■H O m CM 1 H a V^ >1 > o ♦> ^ in u (D O 0) • • o > OJ cH i-t ^ >>-H c t. ■p 5 O 9 ro a> Q) ^ • CD O v flj a CM • • ^ ^ m 5x, CM n •3 « lO t. ■H £ • ChH CM ■a A <;-. in O f^ CM ^ 1 • • • « n CM C CM CSJ C^J o! O O OJ w ^^ E (D 0) >^ 0) S •3 t, > if •3;^ fe o • £1 a j3 ' E o c o +> +^ o • o t. a x> ol ° , * O OJ xJ •H 9 2 * -^J n +^ ^ ® 4-, L, 0) t.. « S +» to * oJ T3 C H l< S «) .H - tt) .HO, t^ ^, r-< a (d o o. o S at. o 0] o 0) -o a rH 3 3 X3 rH « 3 o d -184- Quantities of water required in this area to prime the moisture - deficient zone above the water table to a moisture content equivalent to specific retention are large. The time reqiiired to prime this portion of the basin through incidental recharge resulting from unavoidable percolation of excess irrigation application will be great, probably extending well beyond the amortization period of the project. Consequently, the demand for project water in areas so affected was assessed on the basis of re- quired application rather than consumptive use. Agricultural Water Requirements Appropriate unit values of water use, as tabulated on Table hk, were applied to projected acreages of irrigated land to obtain the net agricultural water requirements. These water requirements for service areas in the southern California area are presented in Table U5. -185- TABLE 14-5 PROJECTED REQUIREMENTS FOR WATER BY IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SERVICE AREASa (in acre-feet per annum) Year Kern Coiinty Southern California Coastal Plain and Coastal San Diego County Ventura County Present Service Area Metropolitan Water District Antelope- Mojave Santa Barbara San Luis Obispo i960 896,000 519^000 182,000 412,000 216,000 143,000 46,000 1970 1,17^,000 i|9^,000 186,000 395,000 209,000 145,000 52,000 1980 l,6i+U,000 i+i+5,000 165,000 338,000 190,000 170,000 72,000 1990 2,072,000 1^58,000 1^3,000 339,000 160,000 183,000 103,000 2000 2,220,000 i^68,000 126,000 329,000 110,000 183,000 104,000 2010 2,lU8,000 459,000 97,000 308,000 87,000 188,000 99,000 2020 2,092,000 i4.5i+,000 78,000 280,000 68,000 188,000 90,000 a. Agricultural water requirements for Whitewater-Coachella area not tabulated. -186- CHAPTER VI. ECONOMIC DEMAND FOR IMPORTED WATER The aet agricultural and urban water requirements of each subunit, obtained as described in the preceding sections, were added together to obtain the total water requirements of each subunit. As previously mentioned, some local water supplies are now available and/or can be further developed to meet these requirements. The amounts of such supplies were subtracted from the requirements to obtain the supplemental water requirements, if any. Supple- mental water requirements may be* met either by temporarily overdrawing ground water basins or by importing water, or both. The probabilities and potentialities for continued overdraft in the various ground water basins of southern California were considered in all subunits as a necessary step in estimating the demand for imported water. To aid in evaluating the probable extent of future overdraft in the principal basins, data were collected on present rates of overdraft; calculations were made of probable future levels of overdraft under the conditions of projected development; the resulting accumulated overdraft was calculated and compared to the storage capacities of the basins; and projected declines in water tables were developed on a reconnaissance basis. This analysis was further refined in the Kern County Service Area, where the cost of pumped water was estimated for levels of increased pumping lift and compared with the price of imported water. In those portions of the service area blessed with a substantial safe yield of ground water supplies it was assumed that overdraft would continue until pumping costs and import water costs became equalized, after which time pumping would be limited to the safe yield of the ground water basin. -187- other factors which affect the projected rate of future overdraft are the historical actions of local agencies in controlling overdraft, coiirt adjudications of water rights in ground water basins, stipulated agreements limiting extractions from ground water basins, artificial recharge of ground water basins combined with taxation policies, and court orders limiting pumping from ground water basins. Depending on the individual conditions, it was estimated that overdraft would continue in certain basins up to 30 years, and in portions of Kern County, would continue throughout year 2020. Many subunits either do not overlie groxrnd water basins or are over basins which are of insufficient capacity to sustain any extended overdraft. In these areas, all supplemental water requirements must be met by imported water . The growth in demand for imported water in each subunit was determined upon application of the foregoing considerations. As it is believed that the assumptions made with respect to elimination of gro\ind water overdraft are conservative, the resulting values of demand for imported water are also believed to be conservative. The principal elements in the calculations of growth in demand for imported water are summarized for the entire investigational area in Table k6. The values of growth in demand for imported water by service areas are tabulated in Table ^+7 and shown graphically on Figure 19 • It should be noted that these values include the demands for suirplus northern California water as well as demands which are being met and will be met by water from the Colorado River Aqueduct. -188- TABLE k6 Year WATER REQUIREMENTS, LOCAL WATER SUPPLIES, SUPPLEMENTAL WATER REQUIREMENTS, AND GROWTH IN DEMAND FOR IMPORTED WATER IN THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AREA (in acre -feet per year) Net water requirements Urban : Agricultural : Total : Growth in : Local water: Supplemental tdemeind for supplies : water : imported requirements : water i960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1,672,1+00 2,i;6l,600 3,260,800 u, 030, 600 if, 91+1,600 5,735,200 6,373,100 2,001,200 2,259,800 2,685,700 3,118,300 3,211,600 3,078,000 2,968,800 3,673,600 1+, 721,^00 5,9^+6,500 7,11+8,900 8,153,200 8,813,200 9,31+1,900 2,216,800 2,378,700 2,1+38,600 2,1+57,800 2,1+81+, 500 2,1+97,600 2,1+99,600 1,569,700 2,1+29,1+00 3,567,900 1+, 736, 300 5,701,000 6,332,300 6,631,700 611,700 1,1+26,1+00 3,020,500 1+, 1+15, 1+00 5,1+08,500 6,129,500 6,681+, 600 The projections of growth in demand for imported water by service areas are presented in ensviing sections and the principal factors influencing local water requirements are discussed. The Southern California Coastal Plain and Coastal San Diego County Service Area is discussed first. The existing service area of The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, which includes a major portion of this sei-vice area, is then discussed. The growth in demand for imported water in counties and portions of counties located within the area is presented separately, as are these data for areas com- prising the remainder of the investigational area. -189- o OJ o OJ CO -d- o MD ON oo s -41- r-l CVJ ON l/\ ON ON CO OJ n^ -d- o\ r-l 1^ CVl o ON t- ^ J- Lf^ OJ NO PO l/N -^ CO 1-1 OO o OJ ON OO ir\ NO r-l PO r-l ON LTN OJ oo NO UN o NO L/N o LA -^ NO oo O CO r- J- on -d- cu U\ on J- J- rH r~- o o o NO ir\ rH OJ I^ ITN J- LTN rH LTN OJ CVJ OS NO -* r-l OO QO On OJ ON NO CO NO OJ OJ OO r-{ -d- OJ -4- OO f- CU OO o ON ON r-l ON LTN J- ITN NO r-l NO ir\ rH & -* J- ^ ITN r-l NO CO OO cu cu LTN OO OO cu CVJ OO NO NO CU ^ d aS U O ft & O •H O (U bDCC u CO 0) •p •rl g 0) -p o s o (U •H c! -p -p f^ Oj to c +J CO 4) (0 ■H r-l j3 0) O ^ fi W O aJ CO o o 3 -rl O O r-l -rl 0) O (1) TlJ !h CO •rl 4J to 0) -p 0> -H > -P U •H d +J (0 •H 0) « -p CO & >^ 4) -P -P C! oJ CJ o H o § >3 o -p 0; d ■rl o ^ r-l O •H u ft cd O 5 +J d ;3 o o ;h -p d > en (M O LA CM OJ i-l \£) LA o CO o ir\ o a) 1-1 r- •s 1-4 CO -* J- h- 1-1 lA vo LTN LA OO ON ON ■H On rH 1-1 1-1 -4- 1-1 CO o^ LA LA CVJ CM CM -=!■ t^ LA -d- 1-1 1-1 1-1 LA CO OO ON CM CM LA iH CA 1-1 1-1 J- t- 1-1 1-1 "» CVJ 1-1 LA CO LA oo O -d- LA lA vo CO O o o i) +J •H OJ CO vo 03 (U 0) o 5 -p o o d u (U LA CO vo vo o vo J- vo 1-1 CM O ro vo CM CM r-l VO VO LA VO o O •H >j O • ;3 1-1 0) ft d ft a< d < 03 ft e §< 03 (0 O -P +J CJ d bD'd d (U ^ d -p a< S "^ o to S (1) •H o d TJ r-l o3 o ■P o o -d 1^ ^ 03 M ft (U CO 03 0) d^ o o o 03 u u •H -p 0} •rl Q 5 -P O rH O O +J 0) d u o cn "d d o3 S o; -d 0) -d d rH o d o o j3 OJ o "d H tH (U ^ > r-l K r-l 03 r-l d 03 d -P d to 03 o3 O -P O 0) 0) o O bD O 0) -d •^ g o ^ r-l O O d o O 03 ■P o d o -d -d 0) 0) > -P -rl OJ r-l r-l -d -191- Southern California Coastal Plain and Coastal San Diego County Service Area This service area Includes Orange County and the coastal segments of Los Angeles, San Bemardlnq, Riverside, and San Diego Counties. It comprises some 9>^CK) square miles of one of the most highly developed regions of the State, and includes the service area of The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California. The Los Angeles metropolitan area, which includes Los Angeles and Orange Counties, is the nation's third largest manufacturing and insvirance center and the second largest retail trade center. In the first half of 1958, homebuilding continued strong throiighout the South Coastal Area, with the Los Angeles, San Diego, and San Bernardino -Riverside -Ontario metropolitan areas being first, sixth, and twelfth, respectively, among the nation's metropolitan areas in volume of housing construction. This housing boom, which resulted from the area's population growth, is only one tangible piece of evidence of the dynamic economy of the South Coastal Area. From 19^9 to 1957j the range of manufactxaring employment increase in the area's counties varied from a high of 35^ per cent in Orange County to a low of 60 per cent in San Bernardino County. The full story of the area's present stature is reflected in the projections made for future growth. The resulting projections of urban, agricultural, and total net water requirements in the Southern California Coastal Plain and Coastal San Diego County Service Area are shown on Table 3^^ Chapter V. The total net water requirements were projected to increase from 2,058,000 acre -feet annually in 196O to 5,380,500 acre-feet in the year 2020. At that time, the area essentially would be fully developed. -192- FIGURE 19 SOUTH COASTAL AREA •SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL PLAIN AND COASTAL SAN DIEGO COUNTY SERVICE AREA. ■PRESENT MW.D. SERVICE AREA •KERN COUNTY SERVICE AREA ■VENTURA COUNTY SERVICE AREA -ANTELOPE -MOJAVE SERVICE AREA •SANTA BARBARA SERVICE AREA WHITEWATER-COACHELLA SERVICE AREA •SAN LUIS OBISPO SERVICE AREA note; SOUTH COASTAL ARE A I NCLUOeS VENTURA AND ORANGE COUNTIES AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF LOS ANGELES , SAN BERNARDINO, RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES. 1000 2010 2020 RN CALIFORNIA WATER IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AREAS FIGURE 19 O < UJ h- < o SOUTH COASTAL AREA SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL PLAIN AND COASTAL SAN DIEGO COUNTY SERVICE AREA. PRESENT M.W.D, SERVICE AREA KERN COUNTY SERVICE AREA VENTURA COUNTY SERVICE AREA ANTELOPE-MOJAVE SERVICE AREA SANTA BARBARA SERVICE AREA WHITEWATER-COACHELLA SERVICE AREA SAN LUIS OBISPO SERVICE AREA NOTE : SOUTH COASTAL AREA INCLUDES VENTURA AND ORANGE COUNTIES AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF LOS ANGELES, SAN BERNARDINO, RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES. 2020 PROJECTED GROWTH IN DEMAND FOR SURPLUS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WATER IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AREAS DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES 1959 The safe yield of existing water supply developments in the service area, Including an estimated supply of 320,000 acre-feet annually throiigh the Los Angeles Aqueduct, was estimated to be 1,275^000 acre-feet annually. While a small quantity of additional local waters could be economically conserved in San Diego County, it was assumed that the necessary works would not be constructed due to financing problems. In addition to using the foregoing water supplies and imported supplies from the Colorado River, this service area has been overdrawing its ground water resources to satisfy its water needs. This overdraft has been continuing for several years at a rate of 300,000 to UOO,000 acre-feet annxially, and was assumed to continue for a time in the futixre, as is indicated on Table hd in the difference between growth in demand for imported water and supplemental water requirements. TABLE ^4-8 WATER REQUIREMENTS, LOCAL WATER SUPPLIES, SUPPLEMENTAL WATER REQUIREMENTS, AND GROWTH IN DEMAND FOR IMPORTED WATER IN THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL PLAIN AND COASTAL SAN DIEGO COUNTY SERVICE AREA (in acre -feet per year) Growth in Net water requirements Local water supplies Supplemental water demand for Year ; ; imported Urban : Agricultural : Total requirements water i960 1,539,300 518,700 2,058,000 1,275,000 809,800 611,700 1970 2,239,600 i+9^,500 2,73l+,100 1,275,000 1,1+82,100 1,21+0,100 1980 2,911,000 MA, 700 3,355,700 1,275,000 2,090,000 2,0ll+,000 1990 3,^90,600 i^57,600 3,9^+8,200 1,275,000 2,669,300 2,663,300 2000 u, 119,200 1+68,200 1+, 587,1+00 1,275,000 3,308,000 3,309,000 2010 iv, 601, 200 1+58,600 5,059,800 1,275,000 3,780,600 3,785,600 2020 U, 927, 000 i^53,500 5,380,500 1,275,000 1+, 101, 300 1+, 105, 300 -193- The safe yield of existing water supply developments in the service area, including an estimated supply of 320,000 acre-feet annually through the Los Angeles Aqueduct, was estimated to be 1,275^000 acre-feet annually. While a small quantity of additional local waters could be economically conserved in San Diego County, it was assumed that the necessary works would not be constructed due to financing problems. In addition to using the foregoing water supplies and imported supplies from the Colorado River, this service area has been overdrawing its ground water resources to satisfy its water needs. This overdraft has been continuing for several years at a rate of 300,000 to ij-00,000 acre -feet annually, and was assumed to continue for a time in the future, as is indicated on Table hQ in the difference between growth in demand for imported water and supplemental water requirements. TABLE k8 WATER REQUIREMENTS, LOCAL WATER SUPPLIES, SUPPLEMENTAL WATER REQUIREMENTS, AND GROWTH IN DEMAND FOR IMPORTED WATER IN THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL PLAIN AND COASTAL SAN DIEGO COUNTY SERVICE AREA (in acre-feet per year) Net water requirements Year Urban : Agricultural; Total : Growth in ; Local water: Supplemental: demand for supplies : water : imported requirements: water i960 1,539,300 518,700 2,058,000 1,275,000 809,800 611,700 1970 2,239,600 i+91+,500 2,73^^,100 1,275,000 1,U82,100 1,2^0,100 1980 2,911,000 W+,700 3,355,700 1,275,000 2,090,000 2,0lU,000 1990 3,^+90,600 i+57,600 3,9^,200 1,275,000 2,669,300 2,663,300 2000 U, 119, 200 i+68,200 U,587,i+00 1,275,000 3,308,000 3,309,000 2010 U, 601, 200 i+58,600 5,059,800 1,275,000 3,780,600 3,785,600 2020 i+, 927, 000 i+53,500 5,380,500 1,275,000 4,101,300 i+, 105, 300 -193- The need for an additional source of water in the area is shown by the values presented in the table, and shown graphically on Figure 19* The elevation above sea level of the demands for imported water is important in designing project water service facilities. Accordingly, estimates were made of the distribution of year 2020 supplemental water requirements in the service area by 500-foot elevation bands. This distri- bution is shown on Table kS by counties and areas. It is seen that about 70 per cent of the total is required below the 1,000-foot elevation contour, while only 3 per cent of the total is required above the 2,000-foot contour. TABLE ^4-9 ECONOMIC DEMAND FOR IMPORTED WATER BY ELEVATION ZONES IN THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL PLAIN AND COASTAL SAN DIEGO COUNTY SERVICE AREA IN THE YEAR 2020 (in thouseuids of acre-feet) Areas Per cent ■ Coastal : Cvmiu- Elevation Coastal: Coastal; San Coastal: of lative zones Los : San : Bernar- Orange : River-: Total total per (feet) Angeles: County: Diego : County: dino Covinty County: side : County: area centages Under 500 962 60i^ UU3 2,009 1+8.9 1+8.9 500-1,000 370 IU2 137 k2 212 903 22.0 70.9 1,000-1,500 179 61 282 18 208 7W 18.2 89.1 1,500-2,000 77 33 61 h li^7 322 7.9 97.0 2,000-2,500 12 6 20 2 38 78 1.9 98.9 Over 2,500 2 k 19 2 18 h^ 1.1 100.0 TOTALS 1,602 850 519 511 623 U,105 100.0 A discussion of general conditions, factors considered, and assump- tions employed in the projections of demand for imported water in component units of the Southern California Coastal Plain and Coastal San Diego County Service Area follows, together with detailed tables of demands for water on a coiinty basis. -191+ - Service Area of Metropolitan Water District The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California serves Colorado River water to its member eigencies in Los Angeles, Orange, San Bernardino, Riverside, and San Diego Counties, and comprised sane 3,200 square miles in June, 1958. The District's claimed right to waters of the Colorado River is 1,212,000 acre-feet, and it is estimated that the net supply after deducting losses approximates 1,150,000 acre-feet annually. The full capacity of the Colorado River Aqueduct will be available for use by i960 under the District's present construction program. Deliveries of Colorado River water by the Metropolitan Water District commenced in 19^1^ with a relatively slow build-up in water sales \mtil 1950> hy which time annual deliveries were about 165,000 acre -feet. Subsequent to that time. District annexations and increasing public aware- ness of the lowering ground water levels and accompanying intrusion of sea water in coastal basins have resulted in an increase in use of Colorado River water to 5^+0,000 acre-feet in 1957 -58> an average increase of 53,000 acre- feet per year during this latter period. Basic assumptions employed in estimating the rate at which imported water will be used in the present District ser\''ice area to satisfy water requirements are as follows: (1) The present patterns of ground water extractions and resulting overdrafts in the ground water basins of Los Angeles and San Gabriel River drainage areas and in the Upper Santa Ana River Basins will continue through 1970^ and thereafter will gradually be modified to a level of extractions limited to the safe yields of the basins. The West Coast Basin is now limited by voluntary agreement to extractions about one -fourth greater than the estimated safe yield thereof. -195- (2) The present preuitice of artificial recharge of ground water in the Orange County coastal plain using imported water will continue. However, the present practice of piorchasing water for the purpose of relieving the accumulated overdraft will continue only xintil that time between I965 and 1970 when this accumulated over- draft will be overcome. (3) The Raymond Basin area will continue the present pattern of grotind water extraction as limited by court action. {k) The long-term local water supply available from San Diego County reservoirs is eqxial to the estimated safe yield thereof. It is considered that over the long- term period, additional water developed by overdrawing these reservoirs, in conjunction with use of imported water, is of negligible magnitude. (5) The recent court decision relative to ground water extractions of the cities of Riverside, San Bernardino, Colton, ajid Redlands will not result in increased use of Colorado River water by reason of purchases of water by those cities not presently in the District. (6) Other entities within the District will continue their present practice and policies with regard to utilization of gro\md water and surface water supplies. Based upon these assumptions, the values of growth in demand for imported water within the Metropolitan Water District were estimated as tabulated on Table 50 and depicted graphically on Figure 20. Table 50 contains the components leading to determination of imported water require- ments as previously discussed for the total service area. The demand for imported water includes the demand for Colorado River water. Figure 20 clearly shows this District's future dependence on northern California water. -196- TABLE 50 WATER REQUIREMENTS, LOCAL WATER SUPPLIES, SUPPLEMENTAL WATER REQUIREMENTS, AND GROWTH IN DEMAND FOR IMPORTED WATER IN THE PRESENT AREA OF THE METROPOLITAN WATER DISTRICT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA (In acre -feet per year) Growth in . Net water requirements : Local water : supplies Supplemental water demand for Year : : imported Urban : Agricultural: Total requirements water i960 1,36U,800 412,000 1,776,800 1,028,600 756,200 602,500 1970 1,976, Uoo 39^,600 2,371,000 1,028,600 1,35^,200 1,209,900 1980 2,5M^,l+00 337,800 2,882,200 1,028,600 1,863,000 1,827,900 1990 2,986,100 338,700 3,32U,800 1,028,600 2,296,100 2,287,800 2000 3,U6i^,700 329,300 3,79^^,000 1,028,600 2,765,300 2,762,500 2010 3,822,300 308,200 A, 130, 500 1,028,600 3,101,900 3,103,200 2020 it, 077, 700 280,100 U, 357,800 1,028,600 3,329,200 3,328,800 It is believed that the projected increases of population and irrigated acreage in the District service area will occur regardless of immediate construction of aqueduct facilities from northern California. Moreover, in San Diego County and southwestern Riverside County, agricul- tural growth will be greatly stimulated during the coming decade by the construction of the Second San Diego Aqueduct. The historical inhibition of growth of irrigated agriculture in these areas resvilting from lack of a firm water supply will be removed by the construction of this facility. It has been s\iggested that, upon the completion of the enlargement of Colorado River Aqueduct facilities in I96O, the District operate the aqueduct at full capacity and spread excess water deliveries in the undergroimd. At the time direct demands on the aqueduct eq\ialed the capacity thereof, the water stored in undergro\md basins would be withdrawn and distributed to member agencies. The purpose of this plan would be to provide carry-over water in the event a new sovirce of water supply were not available at the time it was needed. -197- Analysis of the plan indicates that probably only in the Upper San Gabriel Valley Basin in Los Angeles County and in Chino and Blanker Hill Basins in San Bernardino Covmty is there dewatered storage capacity of a magnitude necessary for the undertaking. Further, there does not exist the legal mechanism at this time by which the plan could be accomplished. Assuming that it could be legally accomplished and disregarding the inherent physical problems, it is estimated that the program would have the net effect by 1970 of maintaining the present conditions of ground water overdraft. In other words, the accumulated ground water overdraft in 1970 would be equiva- lent to presently existing accumulated overdraft. Under the assumptions followed in deriving the imported water demands shown in Table ^0, the accumulated overdraft in the District by 1970 would be about 3>000,000 acre-feet greater than at present. Thus, the program if found practicable of accomplishment, is considered highly desirable. However, it does not appear to offer a solution to the water supply problems of the District's area beyond 1970. Coastal Plain Areas not Presently Served with Imported Water Highly developed areas in the southern California coastal plain not presently served with imported water include the San Bernardino Valley, San Gabriel Valley, Newhall, and Agoura subunits. With the exception of the Agoura subvm.it, these areas overlie large permeable ground water basins adjacent to mountain watersheds and have not experienced acute water shortages. Increased use of water in these basins has, however, diminished the supply to downstream basins. The increased utilization of water that will result with projected growth will eventiially exceed the local water supplies avail- able thereto and the utilization of imported water will become a necessity. -198- FIGURE 20 iSUPPLY FROM COLORADO RIVER AQUEDUCT 1980 YEARS 1990 2000 2010 2020 D WATER IN PRESENT METROPOLITAN WATER DISTRICT SERVICE AREA FIGURE 20 HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED GROWTH IN DEMAND FOR IMPORTED WATER IN PRESENT METROPOLITAN WATER DISTRICT SERVICE AREA DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES 1959 In the Agoura subunit, water supplies are presently inadeqviate and rapid urban expansion would be occurring now if an adequate water supply- were available. The growth in economic demand for imported water in these areas was predicated on the following assumptions: (1) The San Gabriel Valley and Agoura subunits will commence the use of imported water supplies in 1970. (2) The San Bernardino Valley subimits will ccHnmence the use of imported water supplies in 19^2. (3) The Newhall subunit will commence using imported water in 19^5* {k) Overdrafts which may exist at the commencement of taking imported water will be gradually eliminated during the ensuing 10-year interval. It is recognized that the above-stated dates for initial use of imported water supplies are conservative and physical or legal considerations may make it mandatory that initial use. of imported water occur at earlier dates. Use of imported water in advance of the assumed dates, depending on the exact time, would either advance the date when northern California water would be needed in the southern California area or result in a more rapid growth in demand for the water thaji estimated herein. Demand for Imported Water by Areas . Net water requirements, local water supplies, supplemental water requirements, and the growth in demand for imported water for counties and portions of covinties within which service from the Metropolitan Water District is available are presented in the follow- ing paragraphs. The growth in demand for imported water includes demands for water from the Colorado River Aqueduct where applicable. -199- In the Agoura subunit, water supplies are presently inadeq\iate and rapid xirban expansion would be occurring now if an adequate water supply- were available. The growth in economic demand for imported water in these areas was predicated on the following assumptions: (1) The San Gabriel Valley and Agoura subunits will commence the use of imported water supplies in 1970' (2) The San Bernardino Valley subunits will ccamnence the use of imported water supplies in 19B2. (3) The Newhall subunit will commence using imported water in 19^5' {h) Overdrafts which may exist at the ccmmencement of taking imported water will be gradually eliminated during the ensuing 10-year interval. It is recognized that the above-stated dates for initial use of imported water supplies are conservative and physical or legal considerations may make it mandatory that initial use. of imported water occur at earlier dates. Use of imported water in advance of the assumed dates, depending on the exact time, would either advajice the date when northern California water would be needed in the southern California area or result in a more rapid growth in demand for the water than estimated herein. Demand for Imported Water by Areas . Net water requirements, local water supplies, supplemental water requirements, and the growth in demand for imported water for counties and portions of counties within which service from the Metropolitan Water District is available are presented in the follow- ing pareigraphs. The growth in demand for imported water includes demands for water from the Coloraxio River Aqueduct where applicable. -199- AH of the following tables are summaries of similar data for each subunit making up the larger areas. In several of the areas, apparent incongruities appear in comparing the values in the tables. This is because there may be surpluses of local water supplies in some subiinits and shortages in other subunits within the same larger area, with the summation indicating a supplemental water requirement existing simultaneously with surplus local water supplies. 1. Coastal Los Angeles County. These data are summarized on Table 51 for the coastal portion of Los Angeles County. Included in tabvilated values of local water supplies is an estimated supply of 320,000 acre-feet annually from the Mono-Owens Basins. The effect of the continxiation of urban encroachment on irrigated lands is clearly shown on this table throxigh the early elimination of agricultural water requirements. This continuing trend has resulted in a loss of 100,000 acres of agriculturally productive lands since 19^8. TABLE 51 WATER REQUIREMENTS, LOCAL WATER SUPPLIES, SUPPLEMENTAL WATER REQUIREMENTS, AND GROWTH IN DEMAND FOR IMPORTED WATER IN COASTAL LOS ANGELES COUNTY (in acre -feet per year) Net water requirements Year Urban : Agricultural: Total : Growth in : Local water: Supplemental: demand for supplies : water : imported requirements: water i960 1,183,700 117,700 1,231,1+00 71+3,000 501,200 302,700 1970 1,615,200 11,500 1,626,700 71+3,000 893,500 662,600 1980 1,982, uoo 2,000 1,981+, UOO 71+3,000 1,21+1,1+00 1,191,000 1990 2,136,800 2,136,800 71+3,000 1,393,800 1,381+, 000 2000 2,228,000 2,228,000 71+3,000 1,1+85,000 1,1+83,900 2010 2,292,700 2,292,700 71+3,000 1,51+9,700 1,551,000 2020 2,3^6,100 2,31+6,100 71+3,000 1,603,100 1,602,1+00 -200- 2. Orange County. Table 52 shows the basic data for Orange County. In similar fashion to Los Angeles, the pattern of water use in Orange County is projected to change from a major portion used for agriculture to none in about 60 years. This will occur as a result of the exploding growth of population on these lands. Loss of one-half of the citrus acreage existing in Orange County in 19^0 has already occurred because of population growth. TABLE 52 WATER REQUIREMENTS, LOCAL WATER SUPPLIES, SUPPLEMENTAL WATER REQUIREMENTS, AND GROWTH IN DEMAND FOR IMPORTED WATER IN ORANQE COUNTY (In acre -feet per year) Growth in Net water requirements Local water supplies Supplemental water demand for Year : : imported Urban : Agricultural : Total requirements water i960 12U,500 li+2,600 267,100 153,500 113,600 132,000 1970 253,700 9i^,200 3^+7,900 153,500 19U,Uoo 192,700 1980 385,000 32,200 i^l7,200 153,500 263,800 262,800 1990 ii86,i+00 19,600 506,000 153,500 352,i+00 352,300 2000 567,300 10,700 578,000 153,500 i+2i+,ii00 i^21,200 2010 617,700 l,i^00 619,100 153,500 i+65,600 k6'^,koo 2020 664,900 66U,900 153,500 511, Uoo 511,300 3. Coastal Riverside County. This area includes those Riverside County subunits in the Upper Santa Ana Valley, excluding the Winchester South subuuit. Data used in projecting demands for imported water therein are shown on Table 53 • The water requirements show very rapid expansion in urban water use, with agricultural use holding its own through the near future. This reflects the continuation of sizable acreages of irrigated agriculture throughout the 60-year study period. -201- This forecast use of large acreages to grow irrigated crops was based on the following conditions in the area: (1) A considerable acreage of good irrigable lands (203,000 acres of good valley (v) and hill (h) lands). (2) A rapid population growth but not sufficient to force agriculture out of existence except in the Western Municipal Water District area. Irrigated acreage is indicated as increasing in the Eastern Municipal Water District area from 32,700 acres in 1957 to U0,500 acres in 2020 because of the availability of good irrigable and habitable lands sufficient for both agricultural and urban growth. (3) The adaptability of high income producing truck crops, oranges, grapefruit, and deciduous fruits to the area. (k) Sufficient good land for crop rotations and maintenance of truck crop production in the area. TABLE 53 WATER REQUIREMENTS, LOCAL WATER SUPPLIES, SUPPLEMENTAL WATER REQUIREMENTS, AND GROWTH IN DEMAND FOR IMPORTED WATER IN COASTAL RIVERSIDE COUNTY^ (in acre-feet per year) Growth in Net water requirements Local water supplies Supplemental water demand for Year : : imported Urban : Agricultural : Total requirements water i960 20,600 122,100 11+2,700 120,000 35,800 33,000 1970 3i+,200 110,800 11+5,000 120, 000 39,600 1+5,000 1980 61,100 102,000 163,100 120,000 5l+,100 60,000 1990 lit3,500 90,600 23l+,100 120,000 lll+,300 lll+,l+00 2000 295,700 81+, 200 379,900 120,000 259,900 261,000 2010 U5l,700 73,000 52l+,700 120,000 l+Oi+,700 i+oi+,6oo 2020 5^+3,300 56,600 599,900 120,000 1+80,000 1+80, 000 a. Comprising subunits No. 137 through 11+7 and 153 • -202- h. Coastal San Bernardino County. The data leading to demands for imported water in coastal San Bernardino County are presented in Table 5U. This area is now more urbanized than coastal Riverside County, and continued urban pressures will cause the loss of agricultural production more rapidly than in the latter county. The rapid decline in the near future in acreage of irrigated lands is a factor in keeping the total water require- ments from rising very rapidly under the impetus of population growth. After 1990? there will be a sizable pop\ilation residing in the mountains to the north of this area. The water required for this population will reduce the mountain water discharged to the valley floors. In lieu of more accurate information on this matter, the demand for imported water after 1990 vas increased by ij-jOOO acre-feet per year in the valley lands to allow for decreased local water supplies. TABLE 5^ WATER REQUIREMENTS, LOCAL WATER SUPPLIES, SUPPLEMENTAL WATER REQUIREMENTS, AND GROWTH IN DEMAND FOR IMPORTED WATER IN COASTAL SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY (in acre -feet per year) Growth in Net water requirements Local water supplies Supplemental water demand for Year : : imported Urban : Agricultural: Total requirements water i960 ^7,000 111,900 158,900 131^,200 25,600 8,000 1970 78,200 93,200 171,J+00 13^,200 35,600 21,000 1980 119 Aoo 72,600 192,000 13^^,200 56,000 25,500 1990 2i+8,900 39,000 287,900 13^,200 lU9,700 153,500 2000 i+30,100 21,000 1+51,100 131^,200 312,600 316,800 2010 576,900 8,ifOO 585,300 13^,200 i+i+6,900 1+50,900 2020 651,900 Uoo 652,300 13^,200 513,800 518,500 -203- 5. Coastal San Diego and southwestern Riverside Counties. The values for this area are tabulated on Table 55- As will be noted, both urban and agricultural water requirements are projected as increasing by substantial quantities. The projected urban water use is based on the enormous population growth potential of all portions of the Southern California Coastal Plain and Coastal San Diego County Service Area, while the agricultural water use is due to the availability of vast areas presently not irrigated. These lands are capable of producing crops with high residual incomes, such as avocados, lemons, market tomatoes, strawberries, cucumbers and lettuce. The growing of market cut flowers, flower bulbs, and nursery stock were also projected as very favorable high income producing crops for the area. TABLE 55 WATER REQUIREMENTS, LOCAL WATER SUPPLIES, SUPPLEMENTAL WATER REQUIREMENTS, AND GROWTH IN DEMAND FOR IMPORTED WATER IN COASTAL SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND SOUTHWESTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY^ (in aicre-feet per year) Growth in Net water requirements Local water supplies Supplemental water demand for Year ; I imported Urban •.Agricultural: Total requirements water i960 163,500 9i^,i^00 257,900 12i+,300 133,600 136,000 1970 258,300 l81+,800 M+3,100 12U,300 318,800 318,800 1980 363,100 235,900 599,000 12^,300 k'Jk,^oo 1+7^,700 1990 U75,000 308,i+00 783,i+00 12l+,300 659,100 659,100 2000 598,100 352,300 950, uoo 12U,300 826,100 826,100 2010 662,200 375,800 1,038,000 12l+,300 913,700 913,700 2020 720,800 396,500 1,117,300 12U, 300 993,000 993,100 a. Comprises subunits numbered 85 through 111, 117, 119, 120, 125, 128, 129, 130, and 133 through 136. -204- Ventura County Service Area Data on water requirements, local water supplies, supplemental water requirements, and demand for imported water for the Ventura County- Service Area are shown in Table 56. As these data illustrate, Ventura Coxrnty, similar to the more southerly areas on the coastal plain, is expected to exhibit a continuing urbanization at the expense of agriculture. It has exhibited a spectacular increase of 200 per cent in manufacturing employment between 19^9 and 1957^ which has acted to attract people to the County in ever -increasing numbers. Mineral production is also a principal element in the County's economy, with the County's mineral production exceeding in value that of 25 states. The future base of the County's expansion, however, will be manufacturing, as mineral production is not expected to materially increase in the future. This area possesses a fine equable climate conducive to the growing of truck crops, lemons, Valencia oranges, and avocados, which have unit residual incomes well above costs of imported water. These crops are estimated to comprise the majority of the projected crops throughout the 60-year period 196O to 2020. During this period of time the large-scale farming operations in the county will be gradually converted into small, part-time orange, lemon, and avocado farming operations. Ground water overdraft of serious proportions exists both in the Calleg\ias Municipal Water District and the Oxnard Plain area of the United Water Conseirvation District. Plans for additional local water supply develop- ment have been proposed to mitigate these problems. The State Water Rights Board in Decision D-884 approved in part Applications 13^17> 13^1TA, and -205- IS'^^lS. This has the effect of permitting the Calleguas Municipal Water District to proceed on a joint effort with the United Water Conservation District to develop the waters of Sespe Creek at the Topatopa dam site. This decision is presently being contested by the United Water Conservation District. The Ventura River Municipal Water District in the westerly portion of Ventura County has contracted with the United States Bureau of Reclamation fcr the safe yield of 27,000 acre-feet of water from the Casitas Project, now nearing completion. This will supply the District's iramedia. e and future needs for several decades. The growth in economic demand for imported water in Ventura County and adjacent areas was based on the following assumptions: (1) The joint development of Sespe Creek will be completed by 1970, and the safe yield therefrom will be allocated as per Decision D-88U of the State Water Rights Board. (2 ) The upper ground water basins along the Santa Clara River will yield an additional 26,000 acre -feet annually by 1980 through increased extractions by overlying users. (3) The Ventura River Municipal Water District will have sufficient local water supplies to sustain continued economic expansion therein until 1995, at which time it will commence using imported water. Regardless of the final plan of development adopted for Sespe Creek and the allocation of water therefrom, the economic demand for imported water in the entire county, as presented in Table 56, would not be signifi- cantly changed. -206- TABLE 56 WATER REQUIREMENTS, LOCAL WATER SUPPLIES, SUPPLEMENTAL WATER REQUIREMENTS, AND GROWTH IN DEMAND FOR IMPORTED WATER IN THE VENTURA COUNTY SERVICE AREA^ (in acre -feet per year) Growth in Net wat er requirements Local water supplies Supplemental water demand for Year : : imported Urban :Ag ricultural: Total requirements water i960 2U,ti00 181,800 206,600 li|8,900 bl,200 1970 U2,600 186,000 228,600 178,900 67,800 10,000 1980 67,i+00 165,300 232,700 20U,900 i+0,600 U0,700 1990 111,000 1^4-2,600 253,600 20i+,900 5U,i^00 54,600 2000 193,200 126,300 319,500 20i|,900 114,500 114,700 2010 275,100 97,300 372,i+00 20i+,900 l67,ij-00 167,900 2020 362,i^00 78,100 kko, 500 20i+,900 235,600 236,000 a. Comprises subunits numbered 42 through 44 and 46 through 48. Santa Barbara Service Area The Santa Barbara Service Area includes all of Santa Barbara County plus that portion of the Santa Maria Valley Water Conservation District located within San Luis Obispo County. The excellent prospects for increasing rates of population growth in this service area will act to limit agricultural expansion therein as some of the best agricultural lands in the area are also those lands with the highest potential for becoming urbanized during the study period. The establishment of Vandenburg Air Force Base, formerly Camp Cooke, and the large federal expenditures for the development of this missile base has already caused an increase in economic activity in the Santa Ynez and Santa Maria Valleys, which will cause an early decline in extent of irrigated lands. These areas, which contain some of the best truck crop land -207- in California, are projected to recover from the urtan encroachment stimulated by Vandenberg Air Force Base by replacement plantings on less desirable agricultural lands on the peripneries of tne Santa Maria and Lompoc Valleys . Otner areas in nortnern Santa Barbara County are nandicapped by a growing season one-third less than that around Santa Maria or Lompoc. Tnus, crops wnich can pay for imported water are limited in these areas. The demands for imported water projected for tnese areas, which includes the Los Alamos, La Zaca, and Santa Ynez subunits, are predicated upon the availability of imported water. Unlike the fertile valleys around Santa Maria and Lompoc, growth in irrigated agriculture creating demands for imported water in these areas would, in large part, not occur without the construction of an aqueduct through the area. The south coastal area of Santa Barbara County, an area with excellent living conditions and a climate conducive to the production of high-value crops, is expected to develop in the futirre to an area of urban and suburban living with some small part-time farms. In the projections of irrigated agriculture it was assumed that the larger full-time farm will cease to exist. There are nixraerous small part-time lemon and avocado groves in the area at the present time and it was expected that this development will continue as increases in population put economic pressure on agriculture. Crop acreages as visualized in the south coastal area of Santa Barbara County will increase from the present acreage of li+,500 acres to 25,600 acres on the basis of the small part-time farm. The principal crops projected are citrus, avocados, and truck crops. This follows the present -208- crop i)attem, but places more emphasis on lemons and avocados as these crops adapt themselves well to small part-time operation. It is anticipated that ability to pay for water will be no problem for these crops as residual income for payment of irrigation water and farming incentive is very high compared with assumed charges for water. Local water supplies in the Santa Ynez Valley and in the south coastal portions of the county are presently adequate and should sustain growth therein through 1970. By that date, the south coastal portions of Santa Barbara County will require imported water as it is estimated that siirface water yield will have been fully utilized, amd local ground water basins are not capable of sustaining long-term heavy overdraft. In the Santa Maria Valley, it is estimated that substantial overdraft will exist by the early 1970s even with the yield from Twitchell Dam and Reservoir, recently completed, being available. The growth in economic demand for imported water, s\ammarized in Table 57^ was based on the following ass\amptions: (1) Increases in water requirements in the south coastal portions of the county after the year 1970 will be met by imported water. (2) Imported water deliveries will begin in 1970 in the Santa Maria and Santa Ynez Valleys, and overdrafts therein will be gradually eliminated over the ensuing 15 years. -209- TABLE 57 WATER REQUIREMENTS, LOCAL WATER SUPPLIES, SUPPLEMENTAL WATER REQUIREMENTS, AND GROWTH IN DEMAND FOR IMPORTED WATER IN THE SANTA BARBARA SERVICE AREA^ (in acre -feet per year) Growth in Net water requirements Local water supplies Supplemental water demand for Year : : imported Urban : Agricultural : Total requirements water i960 21,600 11^3,000 l6i+,600 175,100 27,100 1970 30,900 1^^4,600 175,500 180,500 29,000 15,300 1980 14-2,500 169,700 212,200 180,500 61,000 57,800 1990 62,000 182,700 2414,700 180,500 93,600 92,800 2000 93,500 183,200 276,700 180,500 119,200 121,100 2010 131,600 187,600 319,100 180,500 153,800 153,900 2020 178, 300 188,200 366, 500 180,500 194,1+00 195,500 a. Comprises subiinits numbered 22 through 39 • Sam Luis Obispo Service Area The San Luis Obispo Service Area, for which data are summarized in Table 58, includes the Upper Salinas and coastal portions of San Luis Obispo Covmty, but excludes the highly developed portion of the Santa Maria Valley Water Conservation District located within San Luis Obispo Coiinty, and the Cuyama Valley and Carrizo Plains. These two latter streas were studied and it was concluded that, due to their limited growing season and physical location with respect to the aqueduct, they did not have the ability to finance and pay for the facilities necessary to convey and distribute imported water. For many yeaxs, economic demands for imported water in the service area will be relatively small. This condition is projected because (l) the area does not have a large urban population at this time and has not yet -210- experienced population increases to the same extent of other portions of southern California; (2) the area has only a limited area of land that combines favorable topography with climatic conditions in a manner that high income producing crops may be grown thereon; and (3) the area possesses substantial amounts of presently unused local water resoxirces that can feasibly be developed. The economic demands for imported water in the study units were based on the following assumptions: (1) Water storage projects will be developed in the coastal portion of San Luis Obispo County as needed, which, with full utilization of ground water supplies, will result in an increase of the safe yield of as much as 85,000 acre-feet per annum in this portion of the service area. (2) Water storage projects will be developed in the Upper Salinas Valley as needed, which, with full utilization of ground water supplies, will result in an increase in safe yield of about 15,000 acre -feet per annum in this portion of the service area. (3) Imported water will first be utilized in about 1971 in localized areas of the County, and all supplemental water requirements after the year 1990 will be met with imported water. The economic demands for imported water resulting from application of the foregoing assumptions are set forth in Table 58' It can readily be seen that these demands would be substantially greater if the postulated local water development projects were not constjructed. These local projects cajinot be of assistance to all subunits, however, as conveyance costs would become prohibitive. Therefore, shortages of water will occur in some subunits at the same time that unused local supplies are available in other subunits. For this reason, there is a demand for imported water projected at the same time that there is an apparent surplus of local water supplies over water requirements. -211- The agricultural water requirements in Table 58 reflect a moderate amount of agricultural development that would occur only because of the construction of an aqueduct through the area. If an additional water supply- were not made available in the service area, though, its economy would be seriously impaired after about 1990 • TABLE 58 WATER REQUIREMENTS, LOCAL WATER SUPPLIES, SUPPLEMENTAL WATER REQUIREMENTS, AND GROWTH IN DEMAND FOR IMPORTED WATER IN THE SAN LUIS OBISPO SERVICE AREA^ (in sLcre-feet per year) Net wat er requirements Year Urban : Agricultural: Total : Growth in : Local water : Supplemental : demand f pr supplies : water : imported requirements: water i960 8,000 1+5,700 53,700 07,800 3,000 1970 11,300 52,100 63,^00 9^,300 1,900 1980 17,000 71,900 88,900 128,200 5,800 5,000 1990 30,800 102,i^00 133,200 ik-j,koo 20, 600 18,700 2000 58,500 104, 300 162,800 nk,ioo 28,i+00 27,700 2010 97,900 99,800 197,700 187,200 37,500 37,100 2020 13^^,800 89,800 22U,600 189,200 5^^,800 5^,800 a. Comprises subunits numbered 1 through 5, 7 through 19, and 21. Antelope -Mo jave Service Area The development of the Antelope -Mo jave Service Area has been to some extent retarded by the lack of an adequate water supply. A rather large agricultural economy has been built up in the Antelope Valley area over a period of years by overdraft on ground water, and urbanization of the area has been occurring in the last few years. Similar development has occ\irred in the Mojave Fllver area. It is anticipated that agricultural lands in these areas will be reduced as a result of encroachment of urban growth and becaxise -212- of rising costs of pumping ground water. Based upon the assumptions employed herein that water costs to the farmer would be eq-ual to the cost of water delivery, irrigated agric\iltural development would not be stimulated by importation of water as estimates of costs of northern California water delivered in the area exceed the probable ability of crops climatically adapted to the area to pay for such water. The rate of growth of economic demand for imported water in this area was predicated on the following assumptions: (1) Initial deliveries of imported water would occur in 1970 for the Antelope Valley area, including that portion of Kern County therein, and in I98O for the Mojave River area. (2) Overdraft on ground water supplies will continue as long as it is economically feasible to mine these supplies, with the amoxmt of annual overdraft gradually decreasing to zero by year 2000. The demands for imported water resulting from these assumptions are shown in Table 59; together with data on water requirements. These water requirements and resulting demands for imported water could be in- creased by the amount of water necessary to maintain a favorable salt balance in the area. There are many possibilities for procedures to eliminate urban wastes in closed inland basins such as the Antelope-Mojave Service Area, all of which have varying requirements for water. Without making detailed geologic and engineering investigations of these possi- bilities to determine the most economical procedure and the amount of water consumed in accomplishing the waste disposal, it is difficult to evaluate water requirements for waste disposal. Rough estimates indicate that this quantity would be in the order of 30,000 acre-feet per year at the year 2020, but, as this figure is so open to question, no provision was made at this time for water for waste disposal. -213- TABLE 59 WATER REQUIREMENTS, LOCAL WATER SUPPLIES, SUPPLEMENTAL WATER REQUIREMENTS, AND GROWTH IN DEMAND FOR IMPORTED WATER IN THE ANTELOPE -MOJAVE SERVICE JVREA (in acre -feet per year) Growth in Net water requirements Local water supplies Supplemental water demand for Year ; I imported Urban •.Agricultural: Total requirements water i960 16,600 216,000 232,600 130,000 102,600 1970 37,300 208,600 2ij-5,900 130,000 115,800 15,000 1980 85,700 190,100 275,800 130,000 1^3,500 80,000 1990 li+2,500 161,000 303,500 130,000 172, Uoo lU2,000 2000 197,300 109,600 306,900 130,000 177,i^00 175,000 2010 238,000 86,700 32^,700 130,000 195,000 195,000 2020 271,000 67,200 338,200 130,000 208,600 208,000 The high desert areas to the southeast of the Antelope-Mojave Service Area, and in particular that region between Morongo Valley and Twentynine Palms, have desirable living conditions, with less severe summer temperatures than those occurring in other regions in the desert. In the event that imported water is made available here, this area will have sizable population increases and resulting high requirements for im- ported water. It is believed that the possibility of demands for imported water in the Morongo Valley-Twentynine Palms area is satisfactorily provided for in the combined projections for the desert areas of the Antelope-Mojave sind Whitewater-Coachella Service Areas. The total urban growth projected for these desert service areas is consistent with the growth projected for the southern California area; however, it is impossible to eiccurately predict the particular area in which persons building in the desert will be residing. -21U- Development here will be largely resort and retirement oriented, and the location of growth centers is dependent upon future happenings such as locaion of imported water facilities suid activities of subdividers. Therefore, if one area eictually receives more or fewer persons than estimated herein, it will probably occur at the expense or to the benefit of other desert areas. Thus, the urban water requirements in the entire desert area will essentially be as projected regardless of which locality in the desert receives the bulk of urban development. Whitewater-Coachella Service Area This area has a wide variety of land usage. Northwest of the Salton Sea, the land is devoted to production of dates, citrus and other subtropical crops, grapes, and truck crops. Proceeding up the Coachella Valley, the numerous desert resort communities, including Palm Springs and Desert Hot Springs, begin to occupy the land. Westward, in the vicinity of Banning, a small agricultural area is experiencing urban encroachment. The suburban developnent occurring throughout the area from Banning through the desert commvinities is sustained by mining of ground water supplies. The intensively irrigated lands near the Salton Sea are dependent upon ground water extractions in excess of the safe yield thereof and on Colorado River water from the Coachella Branch of the All-Americaji Canal. In portions of the urban areas, depths to ground water now exceed UOO feet and the local water supply situation is becoming critical. Distribution costs of delivering northern California water to farmers' headgates, added to tne assumed price of this water, would be about $80 per acre-foot. For this reason, no water deliveries were contemplated -215- for agricultural use, even though it is possible that some deliveries may be made in the far distant future. The assumptions followed in estimating the growth in demand for imported water are as follows: ( 1 ) Imported northern California water would not be available in the area until 1982. (2) Imported northern California water would only be used for urban purposes. (3) Urbaji water requirements will be satisfied by purchases of imported water, use of local water supplies, and recapture, where possible, of urban water supplies not consumptively used. (h) Ground water overdraft will continue throtighout the study period, but will diminish with time. The demands for northern California water based on the preceding assumptions, together with projections of urban water requirements, are shown in Table 60. TABLE 60 UEBAN WATER REQUIREMENTS AND GROWTH IN DEMAND FOR IMPORTED WATER IN THE WHITEWATER -COACHKT.T A SERVICE AREA (in acre -feet per year) Net urban water Growth in demand Year requirements for imported Urban water i960 12,100 1970 20,900 1980 3^,200 1990 5^^,700 35,000 2000 81,900 55,000 2010 111,500 90,000 2020 13^^,600 100,000 -216- Kern County Service Area The Kern County Service Area comprises that portion of Kern County lying generally west of the North Kern Water Storage District and west of those organized districts receiving or having contractual rights to San Joaq\iln River water from the Friant-Kern Canal, but includes the Bakersfield metropolitan area. The excluded east side districts were omitted on the basis that their physical location with respect to the project aqueduct wo\ild make service uneconomical to these areas, considering the relatively small quEintities of water that might be required late in the period of study. The service area includes the Buena Vista Water Storage District, and the recently formed Semitropic, Wheeler Ridge -Maricopa, and Rosedale- Rio Bravo Water Storage Districts, and some l8 private and public water service agencies that distribute irrigation water in the delta area of the Kern River. In addition, the area contains extensive land areas for which organizational activity is presently not in evidence. In the area, 962,000 irrigable acres are available for agricultural use plus Ul,U00 acres which are presently suited to agriculture but which it was estimated will have been converted to urban usage by year 2020. The present annual water requirement for the Kern County Service Area was estimated to aggregate 9^4-0,000 acre-feet, with the needs of irrigated agriculture accounting for almost 900>000 acre-feet of this total. It was estimated that agricult\iral and urban water requirements will increase to 2,090,000 acre-feet and 365,000 acre-feet, respectively, by year 2020. This growth in agricultural water requirement was projected even though Kern County does not occupy a monopolistic position with respect to any of the agricultiiral crops presently grown there. However, the county has -217- been able to obtain advantages of crop yields and early maturity over other competing areas, largely as a result of a long growing season, mild winter climate, and excellent soils. These advantages presently apply principally to valley floor lands due to the physical and economic considerations involved in the development of available water supplies. However, the advent of project water service will permit exploitation of thermal conditions favorable to the production of citrus and deciduous fruits on presently dry lands in the western and southwestern portions of the coiinty. Cotton is a dominant crop under present conditions of development and is expected to retain this position in the future as more land is developed in irrigated agriculture. Potatoes are expected to retain their approximate present importance; while a substantial expansion in field crop acreages, associated on a rotation basis with cotton, is anticipated. Grape production is relatively unimportant in the area contemplated for project water service and, although expansion in grape acreage is expected, this crop will utilize only a minor quantity of project water. Over 100,000 acres of high quality irrigable land, still in its native state, lying generally above the proposed route of the Feather River Project Aqueduct, is considered by authorities in the field of pomology to be highly suitable to the production of deciduous and citrus fruits. A substantial increase in the acreage devoted to the production of truck crops is also anticipated. As the market expands due to an increasing California population, and as the truck crop areas south of the Tehachapis are encroached upon by urban development, additional impetus will be given to the production of Kern County of truck crops for the Los Angeles markets. -218- This agricultural growth will serve to strengthen Kern County's prime contribution to the economy of both California and the Nation in Eigricultural and mineral production. Its value of mineral production in 1956 was greater than that of 33 states, while the county's farm products were exceeded in value on a national basis by those of only two counties. In terms of urban growth, Kern County has also been forging ahead. From 19^9 to 1957> manufacturing employment in the county increased 120 per cent, while the county's population increased about 23 per cent. The county's future, however, is dependent upon the availability of additional supplies of water. In the Semitropic and Wheeler Ridge- hfaricopa Water Storage Districts, which account for about a quarter of the county's agricultural production, mining of ground water has resulted in water levels continually falling at rates of up to 25 feet a year. The maignitude of the current overdraft in the area is estimated to be 5^0,000 acre-feet annually. The rate of growth of economic demand for imported water in this area was based on the following assiomptions: (1) Initial deliveries of imported water will occur in 1965. (2) The Arvln-Edison Water Storage District will obtain all of its supplemental water requirements throxigh its contract for water from the Friant-Kern Cainal either directly or by excheinge for Kern River water. This will eliminate the pumping trough in the District and in time eliminate the subsurface outflow of 120,000 acre-feet from the Kern County Service Area into this District. Thus, it is estimated that by 1970> the Kern County Service Area's local water supplies will be increased by 120,000 acre-feet. (3) A fxirther exchange of l60,000 acre-feet of Friant-Kern Canal water for project water will be effected within the service area, permitting a like quantity of project water to be served from the lowest reach of the San Joaquin Valley-Southern California Aqueduct. -219- (U) ^4ining of ground water will continue in the service area as long as it is economically advantageous. The demands for imported water smd related data for the Kern Coiinty Service Area are tabulated on Table 6l. Kern County is commonly thought of as having a demand only for eigricultural water. However, Table 6l indicates that the county may expect substantial increases in urban water requirements centered principally in the Bakersfield metropolitan area. As there are indications that the water supply available to the city of Bakersfield may soon be inadequate, and since these urban requirements must be satisfied by imported water, a substantial xirban demand will be created for northern California water in the southern San Joaquin Valley. TABLE 61 WATER REQUIREMENTS, LOCAL WATER SUPPLIES, SUPPLEMENTAL WATER REQUIREMENTS, AND GROWTH IN DEMAND FOR IMPORTED WATER IN THE KERN COUNTY SERVICE AREA (in acre -feet per year) : Growth in Net water requirements Local water supplies Supplemental water : demand for Year : : : imported Urban : Agricultural: Total requirements : water i960 50,000 896,000 9^6,000 1+00,000 546,000 1970 79,000 1,17^+, 000 1,253,000 520, 000 733,000 146,000 1980 103,000 l,61+ij-,000 1,7^+7,000 520,000 1,227,000 523,000 1990 139,000 2,072,000 2,211,000 520,000 1,691,000 1,409,000 2000 198,000 2,220,000 2,i+l8,000 520,000 1,898,000 1,606,000 2010 280,000 2,lU8,000 2,428,000 520,000 1,908,000 1,700,000 2020 365,000 2,092,000 2,457,000 520,000 1,937,000 1,785,000 -220- Qiialitative Effects of Variations in Basic Assumptions on Demands for Imported Water Throughout the foregoing study, it has been the objective to make all investigations under those assumptions of future conditions considered most probable of attainment, which were determined with full consideration of the course of past events and a careful analysis of the pattern expected in the future. Estimates of future water requirements resulting from studies based upon those assvmiptions of future conditions adopted here will, of course, be different from those based upon emother set of assxmiptions, smd an attempt has been made in the following paragraphs to evaluate the effect on water demands of variations in the basic assumptions. Climate Since the entire investigational area experiences a climate of a cyclic nature, the use of imported water will vary during wet and dry portions of the cycle because of differences in the availability of local water supplies. As the demands developed herein reflect long-term mean conditions of climate, they are subject to annual variations under aictual climatic conditions. These variations result from changes in water use patterns as well as changes in water supply conditions. As previously mentioned, there is only a minor effect in urban water usage during periods of above normal rainfall, and this occurs only when the precipitation is above normal during the late spring and early fall months. Agricultural water demands are likewise influenced only slightly by variations in annual precipitation, with a maxim\mi probable change in water requirements for most crops being in the range of 10 to 15 per cent of annual delivery requirements. -221- Local water supplies in southern California are developed through extractions from ground water basins, reservoirs regulating surface runoffs so as to achieve a uniform annual yield, and direct diversions of siirface runoff. Of these three sources of local water, annual diversions of surfeu:e runoff is most affected by varying climatic conditions. However, this is not a major source of water supply in the southern California area, except from the Kern River in Kern County. In the area served by surface diversions from the Kern River, fluctuations in annual demands for imported water could be experienced. The presence of major flood control storage in Isabella Reservoir, however, tends to minimize the magnitude and frequency of such fluctuations. As project deliveries to the area receiving water diverted from the Kern River comprise a relatively small portion of the supplemental requirements of the entire Kern County Service Area, it is believed that the effect of varying climatic conditions on total project water deliveries therein would be insignificant. Water supplies in storage in most southern California groiind water basins would not be influenced by seasonal variations in climatic conditions. However, those areas that purchase imported water for recharging ground water basins may curtail activities dxiring wet periods. The Department of Water Resources has conducted studies on the operation of spreading grovinds through- out the South Coastal Area, and has found that, for the representative period 1936-37 to 1951-52, most spreading grounds were available an average of 11 months of each year for groimd water recharge with imported waters. The time available for spreading imported water would be not less than 9 months a year even under excessively above -normal -precipitation conditions. It was con- cluded that variations in precipitation would not substantially limit the imported water requirements for artificial recharge projects. -222- Several entities in San Diego County rely upon sxirface reservoirs for a major portion of their local water supplies, and it has been assumed that these reservoirs would be operated on a safe yield basis. As long as there is excess aqueduct capacity into San Diego County, it is likely that some of the local reservoirs will be operated on a basis of extractions therefrom at rates in excess of safe yields during periods of relatively high local svirface runoff. However, as the cessation of taking of imported water in prior years must be followed in subsequent years by the taking of imported water in amounts equal to the safe yield lost through excessive storage withdrawals as well as the supplemental requirements, the net effect of this practice on total project water deliveries is estimated to be minor. It is unlikely that the cumulative effect of variations in demands for imported water caused by departures from normal precipitation in southern California in any one year will be of major proportions and, if the basis of the projection of water demands is correct, the long-term trend will prevail. Aqueduct Location The demand for imported water is based on the application of a basic assumption that ea<:h area will repay the full allocated cost which results from the system that would serve that area at the least cost, with water being made available at the earliest possible date of construction. In the major portion of the investigational area, located south of the Transverse Ranges, demands for imported water would not be materially influenced by the location of the aqueduct route in either one or the other principal locations which were investigated. However, there would be an effect upon economic demand for imported water in the Santa Barbara, Sem Luis Obispo, -223- and Kem County Service Areas, depending upon final aqueduct location and price of delivered water. This effect would result from the higher unit cost of water delivered from a stub line to serve the areas as compared to the cost of delivery from a main aqueduct traversing these areas. The resulting higher cost of water, if sale price reflects cost, would act to reduce agricultural water deliveries in San Luis Obispo, Sajita Barbara, and Kern Counties as explained in the discussion of the effect of price on demand for water. This loss of service would act again to increase the unit cost of water deliveries to the coastal counties from a stub line. In the portions of the coastal counties that do not have access to either s\irplus surface water or ground water basins of sufficient capacity to sustain long-term overdrafts, the projected increases in agricultural and virban water reqtiirements were based on the assumed construction of an aqueduct. If, in fact, no aqueduct were built, the projected water demands in these counties would be reduced correspondingly. Price of Imported Water Studies were made of the effects of varying prices for imported water on the demands for such water. Within the range of prices investigated, there did not appear to be any appreciable effect of price on \irban and industrial demands for imported water. Agricultural usage of water was found to be influenced by price thereof in the central coastal counties, San Diego and southwestern Riverside Counties, and in Kern County. In the balance of the South Coastal Area, the rapid encroachment of urban entities on agricultural lands diminishes the effect of water price on irrigated acreages. The effect of price on irrigated acreage and resultant demands for imported water are shown by a series of curves on Figures 21, 22, and 23. As indicated by these charts, a varying economic growth of irrigated acreage and demand for imported water would result for varying prices of imported water. For example, on Figure 21, the demand for imported water in San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties, at the highest price for water, of about $^4-6 per acre-foot at the aqueduct, would be 37*000 acre- feet in 1975. At the lowest price indicated for imported water of about $12 per acre-foot at the aqueduct, the demand for imported water would be 55,000 acre -feet. Similar effects of price variations on economic water demands are noted on the other Figures for other areas, with the curves for the Kern County Service Area indicating substantial differences in demands at high and low water prices. -225- Rate Design The projections of economic demand for imported water discussed herein are based on a single charge per acre-foot of water, uniform thro\agh- out the repayment period, which includes capital, interest, operation, maintenance, and all other expenses. The application of other possible rate schedules, such as a two-part rate, would be significant on the shape of the demand curve during early years of the project. The over-all effect on project water deliveries under a two-part rate would require a reanalysis of the projected urban and agricultural growth in demand for imported water in all subunits. Projected Population By suialyzing the results of the study of in -migration to California it was concluded that the median projection of population is much more likely of attainment than either the high or low projection. However, many recent projections of southern California's population during the near term future have been close to the high level of projection developed in this study. If the population reaches levels indicated by the high projection by 1990> the nine southern California counties would contain about 1,700,000 persons more than that resulting from the mediEin projection. Using l80 gallons per capita per day as the average consimiptive use of urban water, this increase in population would result in an increase in demajid for imported water of about 3'<-0,000 acre-feet per year for the year 1990. Conversely, if southern California's population developed along the lines of the low projection, there would be about 1,300,000 persons less by 1990 than the number estimated under the median projection, which would result in a decrease of about 260,000 acre- feet per year in demand for Imported water in the year 1990. -226- FIGURE 21 112 104 I- UJ LlJ 96 86 O < 80 a 72 < O 64 I 56 I- < ^ 48 < 40 a: a: 32 24 UJ Q 16 DEMAND FOR IRRIGATION WATER ^0 >^5o^\ X "" X ^ \, \ ^^.4^ \ ^ \ ^ 10 20 30 40 50 PRICE OF WATER AT THE MAIN AQUEDUCT IN DOLLARS PER ACRE-FOOT ^S BETWEEN I PRICE OF SURPLUS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WATER ANTABARBARA COUNTIES FIGURE 21 IRRIGATED AREA DEMAND FOR IRRIGATION WATER 56 24 20 10 20 30 40 50 PRICE OF WATER AT THE MAIN AQUEDUCT IN DOLLARS PER ACRE-FOOT 112 104 O 64 56 < 40 24 ^V X "V ^ \ \ "~~-^'^ \ ^ \ \ 10 20 30 . 40 50 PRICE OF WATER AT THE MAIN AQUEDUCT IN DOLLARS PER ACRE-FOOT RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN IRRIGATED AREA, DEMAND FOR IRRIGATION WATER, AND PRICE OF SURPLUS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WATER IN SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTABARBARA COUNTIES DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES 1959 FIGURE 22 IN THE METROPOLITAN WATER DISTRICT SERVICE AREA, VALUES REFLECT USE OF BOTH COLORADO RIVER WATER AND NORTHERN CALI FORNI A WATER . 220 200 < ISO 120 80 20 IRRIGATED AREA •^ .i££o N ^ <£S05_^ ■ "s the net inflow to California has averaged about 300,000 a year. No other state is receiving so many so fast. Naturally, California officials are concerned about future water supplies for the rapidly growing population. Moreover, the recent population upswing in the nation axid California has enlarged the long-term outlook. The U. S. Bureau of the Census now estimates that if current fertility rates continue, the United States would have 260 million people by 198O. Projected ahead on the same basis, they would exceed 5OO million by the year 2020. These figures are far above any previous authoritative projections. Furthermore, low pro- jections of the national population released by the Census Bureau November 10, 1958^ are higher than its former low projections. California's long-term growth prospects likewise have been amplified. The recent ups\irge of births throughout the Nation and State should induce recurring upsurges as the children of today come into the childbearing ages followed by their children in t\im. In addition, the larger national popu- lation will expand the pool of potential migrants to California. The estimating of future water demands in southern California obviously required long-term population projections geared to the new outlook. -239- Accordingly, the State Department of Water Resources has developed a comprehensive series of new population projections. High, low and median projections of the populations of the United States, California, and the eight major regions of the State were developed for each census year 196O to 2020. A similar series of population projections then was developed for each of the nine southern California counties. This was followed by detailed median projections of the populations of the several water service areas within these counties. The statistical work was carried out by logical, systematic pro- cedures. The latest available population data were obtained from authoritative sources. The projections were computed mainly by the natural increase and net migration method from detailed studies of the probable rajage of future fertility and mortality rates and net migration for the particular area. Hence, they have a broader foundation than projections based solely on mathematical extrapolations of population growth curves or the relative rates of past population growth in the Nation, State, and smaller areas. The assumptions of future net migration were derived from analyses of local demographic, economic and physical factors influencing future popu- lation growth in the area. Included, also, were the expected effects of the projected growth of the larger areas on that of the successive smaller areas within them. Thus, viewed as a whole, the pop\alation projections form a hierarchy of mutually consistent figures. As would be expected, the median projections are generally higher for the years 198O to 2020 than those heretofore published by official agencies. -2U0- In California, as in other areas receiving continuous net in- migration, population growth and economic expansion are interdependent. Occasionally, population has surged ahead of employment temporarily. But over the long run, California's population growth invariably has been accompanied by a concomitant increase of economic activity and employment. Economic studies and projections of employment in the United States, California, and the nine southern California counties to 198O by the Department of Water Resources show that this interrelation of population and economic growth can be expected to continue to that date, at least. Another purpose of the employment projections was to determine the general pattern of economic development in the State and the southern counties to 198O commensurate with their median population projections. For example, the projected increases of employment in the urban activities of man\ifacturing, distribution and services and in the nonurban agriculture and mining were helpful in projecting the expected expansion of urban popu- lations £uid xirban areas in the southern counties to 198O. A hierarchy of mutually consistent median projections of average civilian employment in the years 196O, 1970 and 198O, related to the corre- sponding median population projections, was developed. Projections of Gross National Product and of employment in the principal industrial categories for United States to I98O published by other competent economists were used as a framework for the California and southern counties projections. Pro- jections of employment in the same industrial categories in California and the nine southern coxmties then were established. These were derived from analyses of significant local factors affecting future growth of those activities and probable rates of employment increases in each category in the Nation, California, and the southern counties. -2UI- Further details of the population and employment projections will be described in the Department's report. All projections by the Department are predicated on the assumption that no all-out war, widespread disaster, or prolonged economic depression will occur during the time periods thereof. Economists seldom are in complete agreement on all details of future growth. I, too, might question a few of the minor details of the Department's studies. In the larger view, however, the median projections of population and'civilian employment in California and the nine southern counties developed by the Department of Water Resources are reasonable and supported by logical assumptions and statistical procedures. As such, they should be valid for use in estimating the future water demands required for this investigation. They also should be of interest to public officials, business firms and individ\ials throughout the State. -2^2- COPY STATEMENT OF DR. E. T. GRETHER TO CALIFORNIA WATER COMMISSION DECEMBER 5, 1958 Mr. Chairman, Members of the Commission: May I begin qualifying myself by indicating that I am the Dean of the Graduate School of Business Administration in Berkeley. I wish to avoid jurisdictional confusion in this part of the State. I have lived in California thirty-six years, I believe it is, and during this period have observed and participated in the industrial and economic development of this State, and my comments today will bear some reference to that thirty-six years of systematic observation of what has taken place in this State. This has been an area of central interest so far as I am concerned. Now, my area of consulting responsibility in this project is the interrelation between the projected population growth in California and especially in southern California, and industrial expansion, conceived in terms of growth in the leading categories of employment. Before I discuss this area, I wo\ild like to make a general comment about the performance of the research staff, and may I say, incidentally, that no one has seen my statement except Professor Weeks on the plane coming down here this morning. The research staff on the project is comprised of able, energetic, dedicated persons who have been working earnestly and effectively on this highly important and difficult assignment. In addition to their own resoxirces, they have drawn upon outside advice. The research staff has developed a tremendous background in research experience, materials, knowledge, and assembled judgments. Although much of this background will not show itself in detail in the printed pages of reports, it has affected and will affect the quality of the analysis. -2k3- As the group has worked along, the leaders have developed a hack- groxmd and capability for forming independent judgments which they are prepared to defend, in my judgment. On the whole the conclusions are in accord with those of recognized technical experts and authorities. Occasional variations from received opinions are well defended in terms of the investigations of the research staff members themselves. Almost invariably in the past analysts have been too conservative in forecasting the rate of population growth and industrial expansion in the State of California. I also have made my mistakes in this area. :)r example, I made a study of the steel and steel -using industries of California at the end of World War II, at the request of the State Reemployment and Reconstruction Commission, in cooperation with leading steel companies. In this report we \inderestimated the population growth and the industrial demand basis for steel in California and West. In fact, I might say I was embarrassed. The report was hardly out for review before California ca\ight up with our forecasts. In the postwar period, California has moved forward more rapidly thaji was antici- pated. The projections presented in this report have been done carefully but one must realize that they suffer the limitations of all projections of the future, especially when one attempts to look ahead beyond 198O into the beginning of the next century. We shall be much wiser once we have the benefit of hindsight in relation to our present foresight. The projections have been made on two bases: first, population in relation to the forecasted United States growth of pop\ilation and the elements of that population growth; and second, employment in broad industry groupings. These two types of projections obviously are interrelated, as has been noted -2M1- by previous speakers, although they have been made independently. The pro- jections by broad groupings have been checked by reference to a general interpretive analysis of the pattern of growth, the basic long-inn trends of growth in this State, and the judgments of qualified expert observers in industry, Government, and in professional research. The projections of population and employment for the United States and the State as a whole have been related to those of individual regions in California, including the 9-county region in the south. The employment and industrial projections of the present pattern and outlook check out approxi- mately with the median population projection when translated into terms of total population, as was noted already this morning. The magnitudes and the patterns of forecasts of economic development in California and in southern California are entirely conservative, even though they may seem almost frightening from the present vantage point. There seems to be no good reason now to envisage future needs on a more conservative basis. The trends and outlook in terms of the broad groupings of employment are arenas for some differences of opinion and debate, especially when one tries to look ahead more than twenty years, as Mr. Stanbery has already pointed out, but in terms of the problem of water needs and demands, differences of judgment as among broad areas of employment, are not significant. The total magnitude is most important. A very sizable proportion of total employment is related directly to population, even as also is the demand for urban water. The presence of people generates economic demand, and hence employment in the numerous residentiary and home market fields of employment. The continuing expansion of population in conjunction with the increasingly complex agglomer- ation of industries, enhances the base of industrial opportunities. This -2U5- enlarging local and regional base provides stronger footing for those in- dustries exporting into western and national and world markets. There can be little doubt that California and southern California can and will support the population projected unless there are unexpected general limiting factors within the State and the southern California area. One such general limiting factor might well be the availability of land. This factor has been checked out by the research staff and the conclusion has been reached that land will be available for the various uses described. Another general limiting factor could be water - but this is what the project is all about . Another group of potential limiting factors is related to the provision of basic community services, facilities, and conditions such as highways and transportation facilities in general, sewage disposal, schools, zoning regulations, et cetera. We must assume that the combination of inde- pendent, private, and cooperative and coordinated public efforts will continue in the future to provide adequate community services, facilities and conditions for an expanding population and employing industries. A final group of limiting factors are the conditions and amenities of living derived from climate, the relative purity of the air and the relative congestion and ease of movement of population. We must assume that California and southern California will remain more than competitive on these scores. All regions of the United States are faced with these same general types of poten- tial limitations. But most, if not all, other regions suffer an initial handi- cap in terms of the amenities of present living in contrast with southern California. In the foreseeable future, California and southern California -21+6- should continue to be relatively more attractive in terms of general environ- mental conditions. It does seem reasonable, however, to anticipate a signifi- cant relative slowdown of the rate of growth, especially toward the end of this century and in the beginning of the next one, as is done in this study. Possibly, also, at the turn of the century, absolute limits may become evident for some purposes. It is only the course of wisdom now to plan for future needs of the magnitude envisaged in the projections presented in this study. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. -2U7- COPY DAVID WEEKS 207 GIANNINI HALL UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA BERKELEY h, CALIFORNIA June 16, 1959 Mr. Harvey 0. Banks, Director State of California Department of Water Resources P. 0. Box 1079 Sacramento, California Dear Mr. Banks: On December 5^ 1958> I presented a statement to the California Water Commission meeting in Los Angeles giving ray appraisal of the studies made by the Department of Water Resources under the direction of R. M. Edmonston on the growth of economic demand for imported water in Southern California. At the time of that meeting the report on these studies had only reached a rough draft stage, but my familiarity with the investigations as they had proceeded and my frequent work in the Glendale office of the Water Resources Department had given me an opportunity to familiarize myself with the various details of the study and to observe the various specialists in their work as they undertook this gigantic task. Never have I seen an organization so devoted to their work as this self-sacrificing group. Working nights, Sundays, and holidays, they gradually pieced together the various parts of these complex investigations into a single figure -- acre feet of water, which will be required in the year 2020 to be imported into the nine southern coimties covered by the study, to supplement developed and undeveloped water supplies existing locally and other imported supplies. In the many years of my experience with other agencies, such as the United States Bureau of Reclamation, the President's Water Resoxirces Policy -21+8- Mr. Banks - 2 - Jiine lb, 1959 Commission, various water development agencies in foreign countries, and tne old California Division of Water Resources, predecessor of the present Department, I have never had the opportiinity to review a more outstanding piece of work on demand for water than this one. It is my opinion that no study of a similar kind has ever been made that can compare with it in thoroughness, detail, analytic techniques applied, recognition of theoretical characteristics of demand, at the same time adhering to realistic approaches, all applied to a staggering mass of data accumulated from numerous service areas within which it was compiled. Since the December 5 meeting of the California Water Commission, the report on these studies has been continually worked upon and improved to the point where now, as it is about to go to press, its findings have been firmed up to a point where, notwithstanding recognized difficulties and uncertainties of projecting more than half a century into the future, it represents the best compilation of knowledge that could be asked for, within the time limits imposed, for use as a basis for determining future water development needs. One of the phases basic both to the determination of future urban and agricultural reqtiirements for water has been the projection of California population broken down into the various regions of the state and, finally, into the detailed service areas of its nine southern co\mties. Although the results of this population study will be astonishing to those unfamiliar with the changes which have recently taken place in the trends of the basic elements of population growth, two and one-half years of study of the demographic -2U9- characteristics of national and state population, applying approved methods of analysis of vital statistics and immigration, supplemented by a detailed study of employment and the capacity of the different areas of California to absorb increased population, have resulted in a median projection of total California population for the year 2020 of 56 million people, with reasonable limits of variation therefrom between kk and 68 millions. Other steps in the investigations included a detailed inventory of the land and water resources for each of the numerous service areas covered by the study, the breakdown of the above population projection into a most careful estimate of its distribution among these service areas, the estimation of per- capita urban water .requirements and area by area variations therein, the application of urban water requirements to population by service areas, obser- vation of the relation of water applied to net water requirements, evaluation of local water supplies, supplemental water requirements, and, finally, demand for imported water for urban use. Growth in demand for irrigation water was estimated by means of a n\amber of steps which differed quite materially from those used in the pro- jection of urban water requirements and growth in urban demand for imported water. In agriculture probable costs of water to the user, physical adapta- bility of crops and present and probable future crop patterns in the different areas, market outlook for different crops to be grown under irrigation, urban encroachment upon irrigable areas and the relation of farm income and costs to the limits on amount farmers would be willing and able to pay for water became the major problems for solution in irrigation water projection. But many other details were given consideration. One of the most difficult .250- problems faced in the analysis of future irrigation water requirements was the overdraft of ground water in a number of areas. This problem was made even more difficult by the uncertainty of the future tendency for different local areas to continue overdraught on the existing but temporary supply after the imported supply becomes available. When all of these estimates were integrated into projections of amounts of imported water required decade by decade, it can be recognized how difficult was the task. Upon these projected water requirements, both urban and agricultural, an aqueduct system was planned and staged. For the professional ability, integrity and serious assumption of grave responsibility of the group who accomplished this almost impossible task, I have the most profound respect. Sincerely, /S/ David Weeks -251- ATTACHMENT NO. 3 LAND CLASSIFICATION TABLES CONTAINING DATA ON EACH SUBMIT -252- 9 " " b P o ^ o to Ph 0) g to -c) iH cfl ■P O -P P 3 w 1 to H 3 to (U O Xi o (u a n a a H 1 Oj 1 rH c,> •H k tH cd to iH fn 3 CO tH t:) tri bp-P 3 5 bO •rH iH C w fn Ph-H r-l TZi U 0) fti-l G -f O O -rH cd ■P H ^ H w to bD >> a CO rH -H ,H t:) -p pJ 0) to H -d H fl tfl td > rH -P T^ § s 3 CO oooooooooooooooooooooo li^f-i^OJ t~-t--iH t— t--ir\f>^i-ivD ir\ro irwx) co f^ c\i VD co ooovD HCO oot^oj irNfioooootrNrH Oco-=fO t— rH o^ro -d-" l/^vo" ON r-?-^ Lf\ t~^CO^ ON oT LTN Vd" o" IT^ f-^ O? ON ONCcT t^ oT ^-r^(M^^lr^ooo^_d■cO<^u-^OOl/^r^(M^-^-^-I-^Lr^r^ r-i r-\ C^ C^ HHi-l pHi-H OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO VO -d- -d- COCO rH O H 0\ CM MD O LfNVO f- ON rocO VD CO O oo r^u^c^Jao^-HVD^-^oooN-*J OJ o o o o o o o\ CO H ON g\sp H ITN-d- oooooooooooooooo rH ^D CO ro t^ H iH ONVD MD ro O t^-d" VD l/^ OJfHirNHroooONOo onvd t^ ltn oj ltn onvd t~- ON J- VD LTN rO LfNOO OJVO mONONmt--OJ OJ ON-d- H oj H tn OJ OJ 8? H rH H CU OJ t--H ON H en o o o o o o o 0\r>o oo H o o o o o o o o o O VD -d- H t- OJ O O O t^ND O O O O OO T-i OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO ON I OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO J- rHOOOM3HONOLfN rH On ro OJ-*VD-d- l>-CO t~- OJ OO LTN t^ r- rH VD vo OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO VD VD 00 O ON ON-* V0Or-0JC0H0Jt-0JOC0M3t~-O OJ-4- t— OJ LACO rO-d-VD OJ O I--VO ONrH OJ t-OCO ITNt- O O VD OJ l/N-d- •K "^ "^ •v ITNOONI^-HOJH J-CO^ ro OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO COCO LIAU^-^VDCOVDVD O (^OLfNONOJ C~-rHVD rH UTN O LfN LTN-d- rH OJ f- rH ON LTN VD OJ O LfNCO O O O o t- On LTN t-- ON OJ Lr\^ ON OJ OJ-d-rorooooOrHLfNONOLfNrHrOrH j-cooj-d-ro .=)- H OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO r-t ONCO-* OJCOCO-* rHVD ON CO ITNCOOJ OU^OlOJOLPv H-d-irNtrNOU^LrNCOLrNONrHrHOJVO.J- rHONrHONVDrO H IXNVD OJ O CO COVD OJ OJ ro J- J- OJ H 0\ O ft to •rl o ft CO o a. 3 -Q ^ (d 1-1 O O •H c >5 Oj ^ o ai a CO (U to m ft fl (]J Oj O 3 -rl cd -H i-^& EH O S U Q W PM m t;. O ON o\ J- OJ o ON LPv VD H OJ ro.:!- ITNVD t— CO <3NO H Oi CO.* ITNVD t^CO ON O rH OJ HHHHHHHHCVJOioJ ■P o o •rl o u VD ■p •s to -* •r( tr- Q -^ a o •H ■P o o ^ •^ . (U H O rH O Cd LTN > »v ON (d ITN •H ^ ^J O s Cd +3 •^ C OJ tfl ON ra (U ^ o -p VD o (H •N o ON ■^ a rH o Ti o t t~- o o\ ft OO >> li-N ■p H o u o ft to •H ,Q o to •H d k1 a ^ ^ -253- a m VD EH 0) o a (U -P 0) H oi -P C H oi 0) +i +J H fl <) X> V a •H g ■P ft w ft CO CO U% J- OJ VD LTNCO H VD OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO -d-ONOf— f~-0JJ-OrHU^HVDJ-J-O-^t~-C0C0 CO VD t— t— ON-^ HVD ONVD t^CJNonCMJ>rot--cO CO on m CO CJN-* CO H CJ LTNVD OnVD la H O t- OJ iH OJ H CO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO -d-J-Ot-- OJ-:^^OO^HHVD 00 LTNOt— t^ OHJ-^Ht^ON OO C\J H CO J- H t— -* CVJ ONVD H r-i H H LTN OO O O O O OOOOOOOOOOOOOO O O ON 00 OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO CVJ rH H CO t^ O CJN CO H VD UfNCO CVl ITN H OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OLA O t^CvjJ- OJOOONVDOCO OOVD -4- H -* lA ^ VD OOVD CM O o VD CO t^cT J-rH-d- OJVDOLACU OJ r-{ r-i r-i •* LA CO +> CO d) M n fe ^ a c Tf ■P a) g 1 cd ca crt •H W) to cd N C ,Q ri •H w U ^ O -P (U O fn n a ^H o 1 (US -H C -H id oxiScd «>Hcd+icd m ■p cd ID -P ^ +> ey squo nden s Al Zac mpoc nta nta chum ncep viot leta nta c; )h a ct crt cd -P H3tJH5cowouOoW • • ed 7i o a • • • o o o o CO VD O CJN OJ CO LA (>-) vc? LA O ON 0^ CO o ON en •\ VO OJ OJ CO^ LAVO t--CP ON O H OJ OO^ LAVD t~-CO ON O H OJOJ OJ OJ OJ OJOJ OJ oooooorocooocoroco ro.;!- -4- -23h- n § g C) ^1 a o ^ J- ^ ^ CI vr) ri 5 •H M E~i a s g ^ M > 0) H O g -p s ro Q) o O s M J:::^ H a; !-i 1:1 i-i i-i (U ■ • • • > • • •rH ,-1 ^H cS I-I ^H 1 U 1 0) to M •H 7i •rH •H •d ^< -P U3 ■P d ^ r-l 0) d 03 d >H 0) r-l .. o .. 1:3 • • d to (d ■CJ ^ C! U d •• •• • • tJ H •• •• +> •H § ^ ;3 CQ O o O r-l r-l ON VD Ol ir\ •s •\ -^ ,-* CO X> r-l t^ CM r-l o cvj o 00 o3 ft ■P o -rl U -P CO « a o3 ^ U (U :i -p -P 03 d :£ > CM CM o o CO ITv LTN O VO o -d- O •\ CM CM O VO LTN d o •rl 03 to d o o o o o O o & & CO r-l O ^ •» •s •\ *v •s ?} r-l on OO CM OO r-l LfN CO VO r-< O O 5 o ITN CJN O o C7\ r-l H CM o CM O CT\ ON r-l o O no CO o r-l CM CM O VO C3N o3 Pi •H -P o o •H -H u 3 -P d) 2 to -p -p •rl S3 o W Q 03 5 tH o3 p< ^1 §) 0) o 'd -P H 0) to VO o o oo t^ *« •s •\ •\ •s •» •\ •* IfN 8 no & CJN CM a) o VO O CM r-l J- I^ rH r-l VO ON o O \i) CM o cr\ •\ •v rH -d- o O CT\ CM CO -* 3 ^ X) J- o VD CM CM O ITN •\ ON o CO o o o r^ LTN CM H vo J- O O O irv C7N -^ r-t ^ -d- ^ CO EH o EH -255- Q CO 0) u u a -p s rH CO cC tJ cij ■P C 0) cd ^1 Eh rH a; 0) +J ■p H G o ^ (1) a •H S ■p ft CO ft CD Tj rH Cd -P +> ,Q S CO 1 CO rH 3 to 001:! 0) a CO C Cd H Cd H S rH rH 1 CS 1 rH fi -H Cd to t) ^H 3 CD -H tH H bo-p (u -p ai ,0 < H ^ fl OJ cd d 0) rH •p fd tfi ^ C CO cd -d ^ ,Q C ^ cd D rH ttJ Cti bO >3 hO •H H C to ^ ft -H rH -d 0) ftrH d M Oj -rl Cd -P H X! H CO to W) >5 C CO rH -H rH Id -p QA'-i a -H ca > 0) CO rH -d rH a Cd (d > rH +5 •rl fj ^ ,0 3 CO 8 VD ON rH 8 rH (^J CJ\ 00 CJ\ cn VD LTN CVJ C3N rH rH •S *k *v rH VD CM •-] cvj 00 rH LfN 0? CVJ -:t" rH ITN ITN m CVJ ON 000 -:!• VD en CO J- VO VD ^ -* rH MD CM t-^ OJ cr\ CVJ (d 000 ^ O-d- 0\ U t^ -^ J- CM CM 3 cn t^ (X) CM (3N-:t 3CO t^ VD •-\ ir\ VO ■^ •v •* •^ •s ^ •\ •^ •\ •V (7N rH CA LTV w t^ CO t^ -^ ON C3N t~- -^ r-{ CM CVJ (d -d ■H tH CM CM CM (-i 000 CO CO r-\ Cd 000 0) CVJ CJN ?H < cd •p •H LfN C7N ^ H 000 ON t— LfN CA ftCjN ^ -d- CO CO >-t LCN moo on ir\ H 00 LfN cn CM VD •\ ■\ •v *^ •^ ^ #1^ •v *.^ •ly •^ *\ •» rH OJ H\0 LTN -p t^ t-i cn cn CO cn m H CM CM (3D rH 000 (1) CO CO •H H -4- CO CM t-i S CT\ CTN rH i^ m Q cn CM ITN CO ro *\ •\ r^ •. »v LIA CO CVJ CO u cn LTN H U\ CM H H 000 •H m rH CjN -p cn -^ CM J- r-t C7N VO J- VD c cn 00 J- rH r-\ VD ^ •\ w •V »\ •» •» •N CM CM VD CM CM CO CM cn f- t~- CO rH CM VD cn CO cn H CJN t^ ITN cn cv? (YN G •rl HJ Cd bD G rH 1 •H •H 0\ cv? -p •H CJN CM u d u H u tH •H G fH Q) ft4^ < -P cd •P r-i <\) Jh -P 3 4J rH -P ■P •H H CJ ft ,Q ■p U Cd 2 to Cd cd •H a cd •rl •rl •H Cd cd M bD •rl ft-rt ts rs •H ;h cd ft ^H ^ •H s •H fn Q •H ?-l cd tj HJ +> •rl -P ■H -P Q ^ -P U rH 3 CO •H CO G CO rH 4J Fh ■P fH tH to od •p 2 •H rH •rl •H 5 •rl r^ Cd -P •rl -P M -P G U CJ ^ 0) U fc< tl :5 ^ •H 4J ^ 0) -d u •rl u CO (U OJ G •H ■P •H -P -P >> cd §§ to CO -p fl ,Q Q -P C >>-P ^ ■p G CO Q CO cd CO (D H G -P •rl rH c6 rH Q) Cd cd Cd G 0) 3 •H •H -P •H r-^ cd cd :s •H s G s Q G Q Q •-t ft ^ ^ a a to Cd (S Cd ■rl cd cd cd W fe Oi « K CO CO > « • • • • • • • • • • ^ • LfN VO t—CO VO I^ CO ON rH CM ro CO CO 00 CO CJN CJN ON CJN H rH rH H -256- ' o \ o io o 1 H J M ) o CO ) o 4 i H ) < CO IS w 0) o aJ a •H W nJ 0) oj 0) H W cd T:i a) 4J C (U O CD ^ Eh rH cd 0) -P -P tH U O ,Q m C -H S ■P ft to P< MS 0) to fd i-l oj -p O -P ^ <^ 1 to rH Pf 03 (U O Ti O 0) C! to S3 03 -H oj H .. ?. -tI H 1 oJ 1 H (D ^ 3 CO -H Xi H M-p (u -p a < rH ?H n o d 0) H •s +3 V _ -d •H ^ cB ^ C ra tti "d Jh ^ Cl O h cd D rH 0) H >> bO •H H ri m u ft -H rH -d u 0) ftH a H a) o -H oi +5 H ^ rH CO to bO >> fl w rH -H H -d -P ftH G cl O -H cd (U H X: rH C) CO >> H -P •H ^ 5 ooooooooooooooooooooooo HlTNCOcOOJCOt— 0\V0 f- l/\ CM U^CO OJOJrHrHOOOOCOOLfNOt^rHOO-^O VxToTciNON-* oTcrNLrNUAC^rHVO Lr\rHCO OnO OJ UALPvCTNCO C^ rHcH rHt^roOJt^J-OOJ-c\JLf\LP>tiOt^CJt^t--V£)rOVD OJ OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO rOCT^rl0<^J-d■C0^-CT^f^VDOOO^-OC3^CJ^CM^-OO^Q VDC0(>^MD0Jt--0JC0VDOC0OOrOU~\CVIC0Lr>0JOOaNO t^ Lf\ on r-T iTN cd" j^ oTvo^ O? f^vrT-:/' f— O H J- O ir\co -* O r-\ H r-\ ITNCOCM OOrH OOLfNOJ UArH Lf\Lr\Lf%rOV£) OJ OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO ^r^V0OVDC0OOOC^C0t^OO-^OC^rHC3^0JOO0^O cr>n? C\J'vOCMrHO-d--*rHLr\00-d-u-\CMrHrHChOOU^O CO vp '^ t---^ t^ONOOJrHcric^cAt^ rH H OJ rH '■ ■ OJ rococo-^ O H tnt^ rH H OJ OJ H OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO CO en OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO o o CO OJ ooooooooooooo c^ H O CT\ C^ VD cr, oooooooo OJ t— J- H OO CM oooooooooooo VDVDOJOrHOJJ-VDCMJ^O J-VD U^VDCO H O C~-VD 0OC-- oo o o o 00 OJ H-d- H CVJ O rH H OJ OJ^o-d■ o o o o o f-VD CVJ t^ H -d- CO CO •\ "^ •v »\ t-co rn H O O O C7\ 00 OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO CO OJ Lr\ t— cr\-d- oJHOjf^rH ctn cj\ooc7\oj j- J-rHVDOO-^-d-rH ro^ rH ro fio On On h- f~- (V-) rH cn^ LfNMD _:t VD -d- en CM OO f- OO O rH OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO - - -■ ^■VDOO^O0OaJC0HOOl/^O HCO t-o CM - -> Q CO CO IPv C — en CM -^ Vu(^(w'-^t— '^''i-vjujr-li^ _ O OJ iTNO l/^oomt~-0 Ooo i^f-t^romo O rH -^ VD CO H ONCTn OJ H CM O H OJ H t- O •P CO (1) •H ?0 o H ■d a D w ^. H Q O cd •H (U ^ ^ cd ■n> -P Q -d a. >■; > r^ cd >j c! •H ^ U U J +J cd 0) cd ^ , > o -H fn o o O o cd ^ cd O ft a G •H ■P ^ cd EH rt ^ g ^ ^ ^ H rH (U P! 5i O > x: •H -P ^^ > p> G G :3 (U -P G pi H cd cd O K Ph S cd OJ o cd 05 W 3 •^ 2 O O -H Pu S hJ W t5 •H ■s ^ :i S a; §) cd O CO W < Oc • • • -d- ITNVD • • tr-QO • • ono • CM • • • • OO J- l/NVD • • r-co • • CJNO • H • • • • • OJ fO-d- LfNVD OOO O O O H H rH rH H H H H H H CM CM OJ CM CM CM CM rH H H H H H rH rH rH H H H rH rH H H H rH <-i i-i r-t H ~-\ -257- s o w • m u w 0) 03 ■P 1) S r-l 10 cd 'd cd ■P (3 qi w >• M "d H cd ■P o +J ;Q ^ 1 CO H 3 10 (U o -el O « C W fl o3 •H 0) H .. ?. tI *" <-i 1 cd 1 H •H fn -H o! W (U U :l tn -H '^ H M-P 0) -P C! < fH Vi C Cd d 0) r-\ -§ 4J O id cd ^ a CO 03 1:1 ^1 ,Q a o U o3 E3 H 0) H ,C1 03 W >, M •H H c! to M ft -rt H TZi ^ Q) ftH a M (1) O -H c:! ■P H ^ H cn CO W) >5 C! CO i-\ tA r-i '^ -P ftH C C O -H Cd dJ H ^ H tj3 CO >5 0) CO H Td rH fl 03 03 > H -P p ■P .S O O a f> o O vo lr^ i/N ro o o ' o CO o 8 o o o o O VD roj- O O O O o o o o o o o o o o O VD OO-d- d o -p 0) Ph o t o s 03 o •\ CM C\J o o CO o vo •\ CO rH o 00 o CM O CO no O CO O H O O cr\ o t-CO CVI cu H H Xl O H fc to crt o <; o -p s o 0) o s M S ^^ O M M Q fe S M a CO t-3 o r^ (0 oj Tj cd -p c: oj o cd ^^ H i-i n) O ^ -p Td OJ O a a a to ■p d 0) o f-l 0) 0) 0} o -p -H d (0 J (30 r-l C ft-H 0) CM aj o ■P r-l CO CO CO •H aS -§ w bO I-) -H r-l t:! ■p ft r-l c: c! O •^^ 03 0) i-i x: f-i O CD >5 r-l -C) r-l d o3 o3 > r-J o o o O O O O O o o o o O O O O o o o o o o r-l o o ON Q\CO ro S h- OnvO CX3 oovoj- trNt--f— i/\cvj c^ -3: J- o o ON c6 V£) J- c— fv-iror— 0O0OQ>,t~_OMD CM CVJ vo o o \.n ON CVl u>ONt--(^vOJ- r-IJ--d- o ON r-l C3N r-l CTNVO .MD IfN ON r-t CM m PO_* PO C\J OO^ CM ro J- r-l ^CD CJN r-l t— o CM rrt O C7N LTN CO O o CVJ O r-l CT\ r-l O -4- oooooooo CO -4- CM r-l CM O C7N(» CJNCOCO rOI--ONCVl O OOOOOOOOOOO ro r-l iPv O MD (3N.:t C— CO t^ t^ irNf~-0OOCJNrOOCMr-l CJNVO o O CO CA t— CM t^i/NO CMTN-d- rH rH r-lVD CM-^CO t--(VNJ- Ost^m CM CM -d-MD VD M3 CJN ooooooooooooooooooo CM^ t— COVO 0Ot--C!NVO irNromO ITNr-l O ONCM LTN O r-l r-l LfNCjNCrNf-MDCOMDJ- OOJ" LAf— COJ" OOLfN COM3Lr\OcOt>-r-ICMCM-^CM r-ICMOOt^CM CMt^t^CM r-l CVJ CO -d- CM cr\ CM r-l CM CM t— OO VO ooooooooooooooooooo LTNf-C^CMC— ^COt— COCO CMrHCOJ- C3NCM t-LfNf— r-lOOr-lOCM-d- oo OO^ CM r-l CO r-l ON rH -^ CM CM OO CM •v "V •* r-l H 0\ CM CM r-l cr, ooooooooooooooooooo CTNMDMD r-l -d- ITN r-l ON VO ON OO r-l MD CM U\MD.4- - O VO O NO f- l/N CTnMD CM f- CM C-- t- C/N •* •» "x r-l r-IJ- ^ CM rH C7NVX) o o o o o o CO CM C~MD m r-l CM CM -^ t— •* »S •* •\ CM -:!• CM r-l O O O O O O LTN ON 0O-4- r-l OO LA C3N t— r-l C7N CM [— o o CM H l-i r-l O O O O O r-l CM CM . CO (3NCM CM iTv O OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO o ro CJN O OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO o r-l UA ^ t~- ^ f- r-l J- V43 M3 OO ro CO ON O r-l CM OOJ- ITNVO f— GO C7N O r-l CM OO J- lAVO 0Ot>O^^J-J-_d--4--d-J--d--* LTNlAirNirNUM/NlTN O VD O CO CTs OO O OO <3N •\ OO O ir\ O CO o On vo CJN o CO IfN CM O O -=t- CJN CO CO -259- < EH >H M t; S o „ u p ^^ §g M ^ W CO f) h4 «'-- Dl m M -d < 1> " rH ■■ ' * aJ -p o p ^ S CO V M r-H :3 (fl a; o tJ O 5 d cn r-H •H rH tS P ft r-H d d o •H cd (U ■-H ^ rH C5 W >. 0) en rH x) rH d Cd 05 > rH ■p •H CO o O r-i Lr\ DO CO oo rH O O CT\ •\ •» Cd ro o r-t d o p p o o o -J- C\J u \o -d- c— OO C\J r-i -^ rH o o " cu EH * .G > P -rl ;3 « O CO -260- a n W o 9 u § o «S ,-v § § 2 h a§ s^ §S G o •H S CD 01 M a; li. ^ crt O E^ W -P s <; m aj '^ cd +J C QJ o s) ^ Em nH ai D 4J ■p r-i a O ^ 0) d -rH e +^ ft en P( tM O Tj (U O r-l do 0) Cti 10 > ^^ 3 (U 05 73 r-t aJ -p o +J ^ ;:3 CO V w i-l 3 w (U O t:! o 0) d 03 C 05 .. ?. -?. T! .. " Ai 0) OJ rH r-H 1 H ' 05 w •H p tH -H t:J a fn +J 03 +J C ■P M r-l 0) d o5 r-t rQ •H " i^ w " ^ r-l d 03 >H ft -iH i-i t:! M OJ ft rH d OJ O -H OJ 4^ ,-1 43 i-l CD 03 bO >5 d tfl r-( -H rH TlJ -P ft rH d d O -H 05 (1) r-l J3 r-l C5 03 >5 (U 01 rH TJ r-4 d 05 CS > r-l -P 1 3 CO o O o o O o o o o o o a) r-l CO LfN J- -d- ON o o 0,1 tH cvj r-l on -d- CO 00 CO f- en PO ^ en U5 rH MD r-l on t^ o on O o\ -4- r-l -4 no 00 -d- r-l r-l OJ r-l OJ ^ o O o o o O O o o Vf^ r-l r-l CO OJ LTN ir\ 0^ ^ r- MD O CO r- U> m OJ r-l •s •\ •s en OJ o r-l OJ r-l -4- LTN o\ & o o O a o O o O o Ol o I^ >- OJ o\ -^ rH -d- LTN Lr\ m Lf\ MD OJ LTN J- r-l »^ •s m^ •\ •V •» •V •\ »> -cr LfN - tr\ CO OJ f- en t^ •* •s •v •* •V •^ •v •\ »* -4 OJ CO LTN -^ ON c- H LTN J- r^ en OJ MD Ol o O o O O o o o o en J- ON OJ en o C3N ITN O J- LfN Ol o CO o OJ o On -4 o ON en OJ o OJ o en o o ON o J- o o o o en O CO OJ VO en 0? rH o O o o CTn LTN o -d- o o 8 en O ON (Q O 03 O d l-l tH 05 o3 r-> d bO u 03 •H O ^1 m d O u t! Ol W ■p Oi d O •rl U (U CO d o d o5 ft -H o ^ S -p w 05 -p H 05 d d o -P m r-\ X) o •H d M. o -1 d o O (U 3 ^ oS •H ^ o o hJ CJ> « >H o CO w • • CO • C7\ • o • rH oj en -d- ITN • VD IfN ITN LfN VD VO \D vo VO VO VO rH rH r-i rH r^ t-i rH H rH rH o CO LTN en O J- en OJ o o o r- J- r^ j- CVJ c- •^ •\ -d- J- rH rH o o O en en OJ O o (3N IT- O en OJ o -d- CO -261- CO VD U3 (U U V a c •H CO 03 u ■p 0) ,-1 U3 cd 13 03 -P d 0) o o3 fH tn ,-i d Q) " -P +:> r-l d O ^ QJ G •H e -p ft (0 ft Ch O ■d (U O r-l d O OJ cd to > hJ P 0) 10 t:) r-l cd -P O 4J ^ ::! (U :0 rH ^ d CO 1d o3 t:! -p ,Q d ■iH Jh o3 .o D r-l 03 j3 fA ih " O ,— 1 d ra ft •H n-i 'd (U (1) ft r-l d r-l 0) O -r-l Ct3 ^ -p r-l ^ r-l 03 CO 02 •H bi) " ^H >i d 10 M r-l •H r-< 'd M -P ft r-l d d O tH 03 (U H ^ r-l o CO >> d) CO r-t Td r-l d 03 oS > ^ d o •r-l M K o J- CM J- ON o vo o o on o ■\ On (M O o o ON o CO o o XI -1 r-l OO (M I^ O O CVJ O ir\ ON r-l OJ o o o r~- OA£)| •» •s fY^Ol -d- t^ o o o o o o vo o\ ro PO ON t— J- ro ^ J- KO OO o o OJ <^ r-4 VO -* r-l o o o CO O o ON J-" OJ o o o o o o O O o ;t> ON ir\ o ro no CO-d- o I— f- t— o CO LfN t— LTN r-l •\ •* •* -v •* "x -\ -^ » (AJ VO OJVO OJ ON C\l PO (M ~0 CM vo -d- vo vo PO •V •\ •rl PO k; o o O f- ^CM r-l VO -I CM o o CO CM CM O O o d u d •rH t:) 0) -P 03 05 0) 0) ■p O -262- TABLE 69 CLASSIFICATION OF IRRIGABLE AND HABITABLE LANDS IN THE ANTELOPE -MOJAVE SERVICE AREAa (Net areas in acres) Undiffer- entiated Lands not Total Sub-unit irrigable or susceptible land habitable Of areas lands development 173. Mojave 30^,650 l67,li+0 i+71,790 17^. Boron 207,810 26,9^0 231^,750 175. Edwards Air Force Base 39,950 15^,050 19^,000 176. Rand 306,6i+0 28i^,l+20 591,060 177. Neenach 7U,960 86,550 161,510 178. Lancaster 199,300 7,950 207,250 179. Buttes 233,360 800 23l+,l60 180. Littlerock 12i+,580 5,350 129,930 181. Mirage 221,700 11,160 232,860 182. Victorville 297,600 65,i+80 363,080 183. Lucerne Valley 116,050 72,1+70 188,520 I8i+. Cuddeback 288,960 37^,630 663,590 185. Barstow 535,300 251,i+i+0 786,7110 186. Ord Mountain 198,280 225,1+80 1+23,760 TOTALS 3,1^^9,1^+0 1,733,860 1+, 883, 000 a. Includes portions of Kern, Los Angeles, and San Bernardino Counties. -263- ATTACHMENT NO. ^4- LAND USE TABLES CONTAINING DATA ON EACH SUEmiT -26U- g EH S M u W M t) c;> W) C/) 01 r- r> f) r! w p P-. •H hJ m ^ § 1— 1 pa ni H <> (D g C/) pr"! M r/) ^ -P s i-i Oi w 0) r-l Sh U o o o o O o OJ O oj Jh 0) 00 Ti .. OQ -d w r-4 ft (U o •H u fe o ^ w O ft e D 5-1 in EH O ■n c! ,. .. . . .. cd 1 I-l ,-1 CO ,0 o3 tS g CO o •H d) ■p ft -p -H TZl O cd u c J-l WD 03 4J •H • ■ .. .. Sh 'd f^ 1 ca d M tJ CO -p o3 w •H ;3 •H (D O O ^ w c! OJ ^ ^ 4J •H Q CD -P IQ ?. Cti tH I-l C3 tM I-l < 1 > d OS •P •H a p •H ^ bO Pf c m :^ 8 O O O CO VO J- O VO t^ o o O LA O O ^ "S •s r-l CJ OO VD J- o 00 o o o Ln o iH O VD o VO o O CVJ o V£) VD OJ o VD O O O O OJ t-CO o o o o o o 1^ f— LfN o o o r-VD r-i onco OJ o ON VD o CO CO OJ o -4- o o o O o .-1 OO LTN on \s\ rH VD I-l LTN \r\ o m CO o O OJ o CO I-l OI o O O no co OJ o OJ o CO O ON O OJ o f- CO ON d -p pi -H ^B CO ^ -p pi •P ■H -p o CO fit •rl d •H ft ■p U r3 § w 0) •H d P m ^ ,o d 5 d 03 +J d O o3 •H d •H CO U o! -p o3 CO •H d tn c5 •rH •rH iH ^ r-\ :3 03 •H u d Oi <6 ■r^ ^ P 03 D g CO I-l u hJ >. 2 O 03 ^ O erf M EH ^1 -p d u 03 g •H o CO ro CO <; ■P 3 Jh ft c3 O d >i k ft O oS pi (D D O CO o U Tf -H -265- t— CO O 4J ,o :3 CO V 03* rH ;3 (U o o OJ 03 C .. ? 5 .. T) 03 r-\ a 0) o •H u f^ V ^ 03 O P< 03 g 2 Td c: &H O oi 1-1 U 03* Cd +J x) M ONOOJOcOaJOJ-:tMDOJOcOC\IOJ l-^vOl-^ooM^o^coL/^^-^— r^^-^l-l^— cOMD j-o\ OO OJ m o 1-t VO CVJ V£> J- m ooooooooooooooooooo -:t^ 1-1 0OV£> LfNOJOJ VOOJOJ J-CO -=J- H CVJ OJ ro OJ 1-1 ooooooooooooooooooo r-IJ-OMDHt^ont— OOO t—ON rOO i-IOJrHi-IOOCMrH-^tv^ cr-) OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OLr\ MDLTNLfN OMDOO V£)VOt--MD MD-d- COt^ LfNOJCO C\J VO OJLfNOO OO O 1-1 rn CM OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO m\o o rH LfNco ctnmd J- -^ CMi-HrHi-IJ-OJt^ OJ OJ rH OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO r-t rHOrHOOXICQVD CM O rH CM CO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO r-t r-l rH CX) CX) ONCQ rH f- OJ t-\ OO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO CVJ J- LfN-d- ON O ^ MD OJ CX3 LTN-d- OJ ro CO O ITN r-l fV-lCO OJ rH rH CM OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO CMCOCMa3-d-CVJCOcOOOCVJCMOO CO Lf^rH-d■r^CMu^^- on OJ 1-1 CO CO o o c5 o LPi J- CA o CO I— CM O CO t— o r-l O o? O rH VO CVJ o LTN m •V on CM o o CO LTN r^ r-l O O f- OJ o ON VO o CO CVJ CM OOJ- U^MD t~-C0 ON O rH CVJ OO-d- ITNMD t— CO ON O CMCMOJCMOJCVJCM<^f^'^<^f^t^<'^'^^<^f^-^ -266- (1) o o o o o o o o .-1 b '^ ^ CM o MD f-VD CJN o a) (L) -H Cd no r-{ no ro C7\ rH no -P > 0) cd •s ■s •» •» •* •» o EH cvj CO 3 ^CM ON CO o O o o o o o O ^ cd U c ■? _, '^ 00 J- h- (>0C0 -d- J- H t:) -P rH o (v-i CM (v-icO o ^ ^ cd r-l ir\ VO t^ V£) D m .. S r-l OJ .. ^. cd o O O O O O O o ■p -d- ^ CT\ ^ CO LTN VD o rH o C7\ rH Lr\ (>o CM ■p •\ •\ -v •» -s •s ^ t^ CO J- rH rH no p< MD J- CM CO r-i -C) CO '-' s< o O o o o o o O 0) o \o on CM -^ LfN •H fH ro Lr\ J- ro Ptl o o rH O o o o o o ro O ^ CO y ^ o t^ en rH VO ^ e 2 ITS 0^ OJ t^ K '''^ CO EH o rH t-^ 1^ t^ S« CO (d OJ r-l J- u V ,1) „ o q r-H CO ^ cd o o o o o o o O W M o3 p ^ o & CO -H J- o no OJ irwo o CQ > t:! C7\ o J- OJ J- r-t S K d ID ■p p< •» -v •s OJ ^ " •H ■P •H tJ O OJ OJ Lr\ rH CM t~- Q OT w cd cd -P OO rH LTN 9 3 ^ 0) •H " ^ § Ug >H U 1 CO C! o o o o o o o o cd H Ti CO -p cd w c^ OO oo CM M3-^ r-{ Eh F O •H 3 -H CO CM -* rH OJ no OJ M O CO O O 3 CO E3 3 & -P -rH •s •i CO CO (U r-t LPv CT\ t^— gg o « ■in 3 > rH CUi -^ O S 0) ^ Sh o o o o o o o O w p UA r-t no CM LfN \D ►> -p OJ U\ c/^ rH ^ • CO I-- ^ rH LfN Oh C7\ r-i 0} IH o O O O O O O O C! H MD CM ir\ ^ D— ■H ,* OJ CO cr\ O i rH 0) •H S «3 3d rH -p s cd •p -p Q •H O tS 0) •rH 0( o cd CO Q S CO •rl c ■M •rH rs d cd cd 3 tl p cd o u O 3 fn ft H CO (u o 3 3 ^ ^ •H ■p rs ■H bO CO ;3 ;S fl CO OJ +J cu ■p -p J3 cd ^ ^ ,, CO +> 3 ■d -^ cd rH cd cd ft -p -H CD d 2 O -rl !> rH S ftrH d rH g -p i!' d 03 O 3 cd ri o > 3 o Eh CO CO S EH S • , ^ • • • • tH oj •^ •\ •v •\ •* •s -p -P > (D ctf 03 O r-i O o no O O O O d "' >> " •v oJ J^ O O o O O CM CM c: ,0 l-l LfN L/> J- t— CO +> •^ •\ *v •\ •\ •v 2 no MD l/^ t^ CO r-l U ;3 OJ CM CM ON V CO ft ft Tj 03 O o O O o o O r^ ft O o o O o o d 0) o CM CTn no VD C?^ CJ\ ■H •H ?H ^ •\ •v |i< O r-l r-l -4- >^ O o o O o o o 0) ^ 03 1 O ft o o o O o r-l r-i 03 (d tt CM CM no MD -zt- MD no r^ •V •\ •^ •V ^ -- — ^ 05 tH O -:t J- CO CM o r-l CO t:! CM 0) . gi u •H d V rin o o 1-1 03 ^ 03 o o O o o O O 05 w a 7S H O S 03 -r-f o o O o f- t— t- r-t M M Ti Lr> J- f- 00 J- ir\ ft :d w c 0) +:l ft •s •V •^ o\ no e^ •H -P ■r\ Ti O r- Lr\ CO s r-l r-l r^ t^ cti o a >H l-l no 03 g C5 tn W) (ri +:■ Ch -P s n3 0) •H O 03 03 .. ^. § Jh ;h 1 03 d d O E4 W aJ M T) 03 -P Oj 03 o O o o o O O o o EH ^ o •rH ;:! -H (D o O o o f-l r-l ■H W H^ tn O O =s 03 d •3 S 4^ -rH no MD no ^ MD CM -P d cn 01 (U ■^ •v •\ S "^ g^ O Q tH P > O! r-l LTN i >i ^^ o 3 0) 03 g 0) < u O o O o o O O o 7i o o o o o O O 5 o5 d > -P 03 •rl <1) > t^ oi OJ 05 u 03 > U o3 ^ r-l U 03 U) a O 0) U o O tH -P o3 l-l ti r-\ cd 03 CO 05 r-< o d d (U U oi -P d 0) S (J> p) u ^ r-l CO • 0) (in d 05 1 05 ■P 03 o5 O 3 •H l-l ^1 ft ft EH 05 cn OD CM O s 2 -268- 0) r-l fn O I~- J- ON LTN lA aJ 0) -H ctJ ir\ rH MD CT\ CO 30 ON +> -P > 0) OJ f^ ^ •s •« •* •* •s o 0^ 0) OS r-l W l>- tn r-l •\ § " ^ ■■ c ,0 cd vo -^ CO ON J- VO r- a h x) -P 3 c -H ro J- r-l ro r- r-l fi •> •\ •* -* •* •s • u ^ oi rH VD r- MD ON ON ON o m ^^ B CO yo bO oi •rH -P " r-l 0$ d ■P -^ VO ON lA ir\ ? CO a i-l MD LA t- ITN c- CO -P •^ ■\ •» •V •* ^ PO -^ ^^J VO j^ rH •» P 00 -""^ CO r-l X) " Ti CO r^ P^ -=^ OJ r-l ^ r-A ••V Q) VD -* ^ LfN -H fH •% •V fe CJ r-l OJ -p to ^ 03 •rl ft CO OJ J- J- ON 0- P< g2 r-l J- r-l m l-l r-l 00 OS •\ •s •V '^^ IQ &H ON r-l r-l s 03 U r-i CVJ d V A! 3 u 1-1 to ,Q n5 '-3 W Eh a p P M 03 -H r-i m CO ITN L/N OJ tJ ON CO MD m r-l as d ■^ S a tu +> Pi •\ •V *k •» 0) J- •H +> •H X) CM J- r-l ON CVI CO r- Q O oi fi ^< m ITN g 3 O CO a 0) bO •H tiS -P •* 3 W .. ^. 00 5 O !^ f^ 1 to c! 00 c8 M ■xi 03 4^ 0} 03 &H S 2 ■H P •r4 r-l g. cm o s cJ ^ J- J- vo ir\ C3N ■P r-l CM oi • (» •V •» d c— .. ? .. .. J- J- 3 lA MCTN y » CO 0) 03 OS > (U (h -p fH ::! 0} Oj CO >>? ct) -P 10 03 Ti C r-l a 0) r-l -p 3 ts) -P 0) -d 0) •H d a) p< ^ P pH j^ ^ -H -H rH fo 3 -P S f^ r-l ^ >H •rH 0) -H 4-> 05 x) CO d 3 0) 03 oJ bo q to ¥> J. !h n ■p (Q 03 CM (H r-l 03 •H § ,Q :3 CO ooooooooooooo MDaO<^r-IOJr-lr-r-ICOC\J-:d-00 J-J-f-cX)f^cOf— r-IMDcOro r-l J- On r— oo tr^ rH OJ -^ CO 0\M3 OOOOOOOOOOOOO or— OJ20CX)r-l-d-r-IOOJV£>aj CTvCVJCOi/Nt^Oon t--COCT\- on OJ -4- r-l r-l r-l on t^vo vo on r-l OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO ON, tr-l OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO CO f— M30COCO f— COVOCO r-l -4- t-- cO J- oo 00 J- t- ^ J- r^ CM rH OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO -d- coomdoncti LfNt--LrNO r-l vo o J-J-CMOJCMr-l-^OJOJOO O CM no CM CM CM O O OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO . _ tv-)OjnO-d-OVDu^ ojoovOoo t^rO_:t t~-vO CM r-lX)O-d-C0c00JO J- [^ ro CM OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO J■r^cOlf^r-^M^vD -d-cooof— cm r-i lait— md (O r-l VO J- J- r-l CO CM CM OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO CO LA^ CTNtr— ^ VO CM t~-^ ^ no r-l O COr-IMDr-IJ-r-ICMOJMDoO ir\ O OO r-l CM O r-l 00 CM O -d- ON CM O CO CO (3N O r- o CO CM O o CM CM CM O (>0 CM O J- CO •V CM r-l O o o o O o o O O O O o O o o O O O o o o o o O CT\CO -=!■ CO-4- r-l -d- CM rH f- CM -d- J- CM r-l VO no r-l CM ^ LTN PO -d- »^ •% •» -s •\ 1 ■. CM V-l r-l CM CM rH CM -P rH 0) 3 to O ^O X! 0) +i d 0) -d 3 O O -rl O >> UJ >. Vl to CO d fn to 0) o u a o :* rH O ^ o fc 0) ^H u d ■ 0) -H (U ■P xi t:! OS d 0) 03 ■p t:! U -rl +J r-l to -d to -p o3 > -rl > PL4 ^ o r-l ^" Ifl 03 r-l •rl ^ g x: tn d ft ^ O •H 1-3 > o 03 rH r-l > ^ -P •rl (U 0} IS EH 1-5 o 3 -H »-3 K o • 5 • CO • 0) 03 CL, CO • • 5 • •rH CO • 03 CO • ■p CO • 03 o • i •-3 03 CO 73 M • 03 (0 S 0) 1 • -P EH VO t~-cO OS O r-l CM ro ^ ITNVX) r-co cy\o rH CM 0O-* lr^v£> 3 ooootr^ooj-^j-j- ^ -d--^.^ J- ir\ir\ir\i/\ir\ir\t/N o r-l r-l rH r-l r-l r-l H rH r-l rH rH rH r-t r-l rH ^ r-l rH r-{ rH r-l CO -270- o 03 S" 0) o () w s a! M M D 9 c ■H p § r^ ^ m <, Mh crt h3 w a) pq ^ en cS CQ CO w CO O &H ^ o u r-4 U <6 i) O aJ E^ I* o CO d p :3 c: •.^ (h ^ 05 r-l to e I5 ■P o +> •§ CO r-< P. 0) o •H ;h EH o ta ;Q OS o P( O u o3 -P -P 03 Oj tin CQ o O O o o O o o o § i-l CT\ ro J- J- X) ON J- CJ\ L^~" Ol r-l CM I-l ro •\ •^ •v •\ •* 00 VO o UA CO CVJ i/\ f—i 1-1 on r-l fV) CVJ o o O o o o o o o J J- C\J -d- r-l o vO CVI t~- CVJ u% VO rH 1-1 o o •\ •V •\ •\ •\ ■V •v VO iH CVI r-4 I-l CVI tr\ CVJ O o o o o O o o o v£) t— t— o\ m J- CVJ ON 0£ CJ ^ OJ u% o rH r-l •\ •\ •^ •\ "s •\ ■\ r-t ur^ X3 ro ir\ I~- no i-l r-* rH I-l ■-I O O o O O o o o O ir\ J- o 1-1 I-l x> en O o o o o o o O O a) J- ^ vo ON CJn -d- LTN vo en t- m r-l J- r-l o ITN J- CVJ I^ o o vo en o o o Lr^ m vo ON ON -^ 3 CVJ o 5" s o o -d- O CJN o m vo LTN r-l o o ON O ON o m m o O en OJ o O o O O O o en CO ^ l/N rH (TN r-l r-l VO -cJ- u^ CVJ CVJ CVJ o o o o o -^ CO CO •-t vo l/N LTN J- en r-> o o o o o x> J- o -o LTN o CVJ On O CJN on O o o o ON en o ON en ITN CO o CVJ CVJ o CTN On O o on •\ vo en O •\ o CVI o O OJ LTN r-t • •s f- o ON o o a r-{ n •H (U J- 05 s CO O 03 O c H •rl o5 frt rH C! hD U 03 tH o u m rl o u -d 01 33 ■p a n O ■r^ (U a c P^ ^ ^ (rt k CO o a •H o m C/J +> c3 at -p r-t at c ^ r! o -P CO <-* Id o •H c! bO o ■3 ei o o 0) :3 J3 oS •r^ EH fe o o ^A o « >H O CO pq • • X) CTs • o • rH CVJ • en -d- • vO in ITN LfN vo VO vo vo VO -O vo rH r^ r-\ rH rH rH r-l r-t rH rH -271- r- i^ w ^ m 0) u o aJ d •H 03 cd (U 05 (0 O O O cfl 03 o ■rH CtJ 03 c •^ a) d -P •H l-l -P O -P I 03 d O -A d U i) o o 03 d o Tj •P -H d o ■p p o c CO Q) O ■P oi -p O cd 5 ^ d 0) o cd d •H > o d o •iH M (U K VO ON VD LTN LTN VO (3N l/N o\ -^ LTN CM cv^ CM cv-i CU CM cv-i ro CM ONMD r-l OO (JN O I^ H u •H U +^ 03 •rH P 0) (1) -* ON CO LTN LTV ON ON r- j- l-l CO t^ CO OO t-- ctn j- ,-1 CO t^ ro ON rH OO MD CM O NO t^ iH -=f rH C30 C7n (3N CM rH NO OO CA OO r-l (TN OO t^ CO ON iH O C7N ,H J- iHND rH OO CO ON •\ -^ LTN OO rH CM -d- CO cT OO OOVD UTN LTN f-O iH OO o CM CM OO ON r-l CT\ CM OO CM r-l -d- -^ o f- OO O rH r-t rH OO -J- I-- NO r-l -* OO o r-i NO t^ •s •s CO n LTN C!N CM ,-t CI Lf\ NO OO o r-l r^ NO -p o •H !-i d W) +J HJ •H rrt cd 03 Cd Jh :s -H rH cd o p P-, 4J H-> u 03 r/) •H (U crt 03 -H P< hO 0) Pl> >H o cd h O 0) U U crt r-l (rt -P +J O (D d (Tl •H P ■P P (U r^ S CQ iM .§a 0) crt C3 H -p o Q) -H bO ^H 'd -p 0} ■H P J- Ol O CO CO ON •v •^ CM -=t| CM .,| Vl 0) I cd Q, U . . O (U CG O 4J •H cd d CA O-d- Lf\ t~- rH OJ *\ "S t---=f NO CO NO CM ro -P o ■H u ■p O > p en cd H cd d cd 0) ^ o •H K P cd P O -d I CO 0) crt W K n 0) W a t- P M •H 3 P ^ CO 9 3 H ^ 1 W w w ro fi< o PLI 0} o O O O rH U u VD ON u> ro a 0) Ctf w rH x> c! -^ oi r? O o o o S •? _, "> ON ON ON OJ U t:) +i ON CM on 3 pi -H CO B •* •' •' r-l " •• cri 4J O +J ," :3 UJ .. Tl to r-l P< 0) C) •H u k< V ^ to C) p^ g o u H o 10 , , ,, ,, ,, T) ^1 to c crt -p cri Wl 0) r-l en TJ • ■ a; 1 r-l -p CO ," Cri crt g :3 n W) to •H •H +J Pi ^H •H T) O ^1 C5 c ?H H •• crt to •P c •• Tt to ■p (rt to •H :=! •H 0) f) C) g to C! (1) Ti -P •rl P ■P to cd r-l r-l < 3 d > CO o o o o VO VO J- CM CJN ONO o o o o -d- o -=h CO m-:t o o o o o on o o o o o o o o o o o o r^ o o o o VO on o o o o CO ^ CJNNO -d- CM oooooooooooo CMr-llTNj-VOr-lCjNC^NCQCVJ-d-On * -<5 (-Hr-I t/^ LTN C3N CM t-- CM t-- ' l/\ t--tXD f- CM CM CM o m CJN oooooooooooo CMMDLTNC^NNOr-Jr-ILrNO rn r-IVDr^On r-l J^r-I NO OOOOOOOOOOOO LTNOtrNOOoOJ-cocvji-ion COJ-u^CMVOCMonCK Lf>r-I J- t>- on t- CM CM CM On CM f- OOOOOOOOOOOO ITNCMr-ICXJCO OOr-IC— ITN LTNVO en r-l LTN^ LTN •^ "S "N "S •* "S CM cn-^ V£l r-l rH OOOOOOOOOOOO CM CO LTN MD 1^ CM r-l r-l on CM OOOOOOOOOOOO! ITN I OOOOOOOOOOOO! OOOOOOOOOOOO on t— MD On on ^ r-4 oj OOOOOOOOOOOO r-ILTNOLTNCM VOO O m ^--d■ CM CO J- CM CM CM r-l OOOOOOOOOOOO t— r-l CM r-l L/N tTN-d" ir\ r-t r4 Cn ON C^N f- t/N-4- CM CM r-t t~- r-l CM VO ITN r-l O o LA m OJ o CM on o o VD J- CO CM O CM o LTN o VD o CO ON •\ o t- VD CM !>5 OJ to 0) rH C u to (U ,-f •H Tj -H & ^ rH Cd Cd X) O < U rH > Al -p Oi O d ^^ u 0} td 0) rH M ;-! 0) -P S r/) O bO cri O ctj tJ c -P +J Cd -P 0) Td to ^ !-i -rl -.-3 tn ^ fc. c: (U C -P +J U f) U T) >H ■ni h >H O O xJ .5 s 2 m w l5^-;3 •H -H S > m EH • • « • • C»-oo rnjit lr^ • VD • * « • t--co CJnO H CM • • onj- • • ITNVD NOVO l>- t-- t- t~-r— t^t~-cococococococo rH rH r-l r-l r-l rH H rH rH rH rH rH rH r-i rH r-l CM t:! -273- On a .-1 U O o o o o o a 0) -H nJ £1 OJ PO rH OJ -p -P > (U cd C i-i vD (v-1 CO ON t~- o ^ •^ •^ •* Eh > 01 O o S VO o o " "^ § ■■ ^ ■■ c ,0 cd OJ OJ S U\ t- cd U '^ 4^ ro ro CO ITN ^ :3 c -H •\ •i •s •\ ti ^ cd ^ LfA OJ OJ o :r> P -H r-l 01 S o O o o o rH Cd +J -d- ir\ MD LTN o OO r- O rH 4J •\ •* *\ *« P rH -d- ON ITS ^ ir\ MD Ol OT 1 cS 3^0 S 03 -H r-l O VO t- -p S g 03 hO rH CO -d- d n5 ■H -P ft •V •V •» p 9 u -H Em p r^ rH UN 2 S M ON OJ 0) o o O o O rH Ch tn O ^ rH J- d cd -p i) t-t CO CO •rl d rH 03 •t •\ »^ O rH Cd !>5rH >5 CO O 03 -rl 03 a. +J -P rH -C) -P 42 • . . . Cd ^ O H R e O cd O o , ft O 03 O u 0) -P T hD a >=-P ^i+J H > cd ^^ ^1 x: 0) •H 0) O 03 O U rH -rf rH -rl • ::! -p -p ft rH Jh r-l U ■P O CO cd 03 CQ a) -P Cd -P d S 03 :s M > 03 > 03 0) -d 03 03 +5 d ■P •H ■H e -p rH 03 -p •H •H o Cd Q Cd fi 0) o 03 -H -rl ^ w rH r-t > -H •rl !-i i! p ft rH U r-l U O u p^ fts ^ W t: i) 03 r-l If^ a) 3> Ml 1 a C5 crt 2) Xi (K u r-l tM ,, () CJ Ti I) o •H u> U r— d) fTN (JL, r-l ITN c- o r— ON r-{ •• o I^ 1^ ^) fTN r-t •• u> t--vO roONOJ O r^-LTN onononononon 7\osa\o\a\(y\(j\a\x>ao t— u\n^ r-IOt— ^OiACVIJ-t-CVJooOOjro^ONroj-ON <^C\JVO(MLfNO •OX)r-lr-13DOJO-),-lr-ILrNOONMD [--I^aDcO r-^-JD-ct CVJCO rH POO t^X) t--QNONLr\ COONONONONONTNONONCOXlr-^OPOONCUOVOLrN ONONO\ONONONONC7\CT\ONONONC7NONCOaD t— LTNOO CMM3V£)OJcX)(MX)aOt-vOOJoOvOt~-r-)-d-OCMirN r-lr--OaNt— OOCMO OnVO ltn la t~-t~-cOC0 [:— t— ^OJ- OJ f— r-l 0OOV£) t— VO t~-cOJ- CO ONONOnONONOnONOnXiXi r— M3 rOONCVI O^ LfN ONONONONONONONO^ONONONONa^ONCOX) C^ITNOO O O OOO OJMDCO-d-vO LA-*-d--^cO t^-^ XI^CO t^r-IV£) CVJJ- ONr-lsO OVOJ-VO^ ITNI^J" t~-MD OJ MDf— coco f-VO-vD-* r-l D— r-IOJ ON-d--^ LA^ LAOJ CO OnONOnONOnONON On CO COt—LAOOONOJOMDLA OnONONONONONONONONONONCTnONONCOCO t-LAOO OJQJOVDVOMD-d-OJ^OcO tTN-* cO OOVOr-irOCOO^LAr-IONONOO ON l/N OJ O ONCO O ^ CO •vO OOCO MDt— COCOt^VDvOJ-r-Jf— O,-IC00Jr-l0jOr-ICQ CO ononononononononX)co t~-ir\pooNai ovo3- ONONONCTkONONONONONONONONONONCOCO t— LAOO -^OJ-OMDOJVOJ-LAt--r-l3DVDOJX) LTN CO ON OO OONirNr-lOJt--aOr-lr-lLAOJX)t— X)OC0OVD0O LAMDCOCO [^VD LAJ- r-t\0 O OVOaO >-C0 LALA-d- COONOnOnONONOnONONCOX) t— LAOJCO rHONlA3- ONONONONONONONONONONONONONONCOaaVO LAOO r-)-4- CO OI-*MDOJ 0-4- ONf— X)COCOCO OVOVOVD OrHLAV£)COMDt~-r-lrOJ-f-VOOOOJirNVO OOVDCOCO f-MD LAPOO LAONON-d-J- r-IOOCOCOCO CO OnONONONOnOnONONCO I^vO ITNOJCO rHCOJ- CO ONONONONONONONONONONONONONaNX)CO\.D LAOO ON D— r-l OO O VO LACO QJ VO CO ONCO QJ CO J- ONLA_:t OnO ooroooOcO t— ooj- O OJ ON ON I co r-IVOCOt^-f-NOLAOOO^f— C~-r-IOLAlAOOr-l CO ONONONONONONONONCO f-VO LAOJ t^OXIJ- OO OnONONOnONOnONONONOnONOnONONCOCO^O LAOO LTvMD OJ OJ -d- . CO OO OOCO OO cy CO o CO I O CO OO t— I |OOOJlAOr-4COJ-0 iCOVO LAONLAX) O ON ONVOCO t--NOV0 LAOJ ON0OVO-* [—-* l^VO O O OO C--0\ONONONONONONX>aD t--M3-d- r-l>vO ONt^ooOJ ONOsOnONONOnOnONONOnONONOnONCO t— VO LAOO -* OJ ooO-d-COVOOJcOJ- O-d--^ a\x> ovoj- r-t OJ I-* OJ C^VOCOMD 0O-4- lAXlVOcO ooiACO OOVDOO t^VOcO I^VDLAJ- OJCQ OJOOr-IOJCO ON-:^- OcO-J- C^ONONONONONONONBXI f-VDJ- O LACOVO r-l r-l ononononononononononononononX) r-vo laoo ^ ONJ- ON-=f OnJ- ON-d- ON^ ON-d- ON-d- ON^ r-lr-IOJOJOOOOJ-J- LALAMDVOt— t—CO i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i -i- OiaOlaOlaOitnOlaOlaOlaOlaOla r-l r-i OJ OJ OOOO^-d- ITNLAVOVD t--t— X>CO oooooooooooooooooo 4J4J-P-P-P-P+^-P+>+5-P-P-P+5-P-P-P+J 43-d- ON-d- ON-d- ON-d- ON J- ON^ ON-d- ON-d" ON-d- ■P r-lr-IOJOJOOOO-d--d-lALAVOMDC— t--CO (h I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I -H •rlOLAOLAOLAOLAOCAOlAOlAOl/NOLA W r-l r-l 3 o cvj o <-> C) cu o () C5 OJ if\ ON o 2) (r\ (m 1— 1 o •• Tl o o x> •H 1 ^1 Lf^ Q) r- CX, CTn r-l •• tr^ t^ o t~- CA r-l •• o t^ LPv vO ON r-l •• ITS vO O >i) CT\ iH •• O vD LTN irN C7\ r-l • • •■ 01 hO c: — (d iQ Si u cj aJ (U > ^ CD ONt— ^oorooNOOrOr-ionoNvrivOvo irN!--CVJOJJ-t— irNr-IVOt~-r-ILf>OOJMD irwo CO ^-u^J■^ ooonoO-* O r-l r-\ O CO 0\0N0NCr\O\O\ONC0Q0 C^^-d- r-l on CTsaNCr\o\o\0NcrN0\cT\cr\O\0N0N0Nt-- VD C23 C— MD OJOJONt^CVlONOJ-VOOOU^ uNt— cvjoj-^r— Lr\r-ivovDr-iir\a\0-* i^VDCOt^LfNJ--d-POCT\rOJ-OOr-lO CO o\ o\ a\ as o\ a\ a\co CO t^vo-d- r-i oo o\ONa\a\ONCT\cr\CT\o\ONONONONONt— j-ir\LAoo^irNLrNOjj-Oj(Mr-lLr\ooo <~OC^CVJONO\CT\o\o\ONONONa\o\c— t~-CO CM O ONr-l LTNO LTNCO LAMDVD r-l-^ c0MDCJajr-lir\-^OrOr-l0JCJC00J^ -^voco t--Lpkj-_d- rr) a\m m a\co \o ltn CO ON ON ON C^ ON ON ON CO CO f- tTN OO O CVI ONONONONONONONONONONONONONONh- O ONCO ^ rH UN r-l r-l on oj O LTN J- ONOO en oomcO O^D roONCO J-VDCOC^irNJ-^CVJONCVJOJt--V£)OJr-l CO ONONONa^ONONONCOCO D— ITNPOO OJ OnOnOnOnOnONOnOnOnONOnONONOnD— VOONOJt--0001J^mCOr-lt— COr-lO-^ O-d-r-IOCOr-lr-lirWOOrOj-LrNLfNt^ OOVOCO D— J--*J- OJCO CVI r-f^^ -^ f-VO CO CT\C3NCJNC3N(7NC7NO\COCO t^l/NPOONH CTNONONCTNCrNONCJNCTNONCrNONCTN ONCO t-- -^ rOVD CO On OJ CVI r-l VO i/NJ- CVI t^VO lTN VOOOOC3NLPvO\C3NCVlr-lr-IOLfNLfNJ- O r-tVOCOVOJ-OOrOCVlCOr-IOJ-r-IOJr-J CO ONCTnCJnONCTNONCTNCOCO f-L/M^ONr-l ONCJNCjNONONCTNCTNCJNONCjNCrNCTNCTNCO f— -d-COONt— r-IOLTNCOCVI-^Or-ILi^fV-iaO cOr-lCJNCO-4-C^vOt~-LrNr-ILP»norOMDro ONMDt--V£U-roo-ir-lt— OCOCVIcOt— LTN 1>-OnOnc:nC7nCJNC3NOnoOcO^O u^CVICO o CjNCTNCTNCjNONCJNCTNONONCjNCJNONCrNCO f- Lf\r-lr-lt— CVJVOVDOCVlOCVJlTNr-imVD t— OCTsr— OOU^OOOOCO r-ICTNOOJCO r-l f— \0 r— VD-^ POOOr-IVO CJNVD O l/NOOrH t— OnCJnCTnONOnCSNOnCO tr-vO u^OJCQ o CJnCTnCJnCTnCJnCJnCJNOnOnCJnOnON ONCO c— J- O ONO^rOoot^O CVJ f-rOLTNCJNCVI VO ONCO C^rOiTNr-ICO CVI CVIVO mo LTNMD LTNU^f-^-d- moOOMDCO LTNCO OOCVl r-l t--C7NONONONC3N(3NC7NCO t^VO^ CyCO O ONONCjNCT\CrNCJNC3N(3NC7\C:NC3NC3NONCO C~- J- C3N-^ CT\-=J- ON-d- ON-^ CJN J- CA-d- CJn rHr-lCVICVIo-iroj-_d- t/NlTNVOMD I I I I I I I I I I I I I I OLrNOLrNO^rNOl/^Ol/^Ou^Olr\ r-lr-fCVICVJOOOOJ^^LTNirNVOVO oooooooooooooo 4J+3-p434J4J40-p4-)+i4J4J-P-P s: -d- CTN-d- C7N J- CJN J- CJN-::!- CJN J- CJN J" tr-lr-lcVlCV|oofv~^J■J■^/^Lr^MD^ + •HOirNOu>Oi/NOirNOLrNOLfNOLrN cq r-ir-iCVJOJoonoj-j-i/NirNVOMD CO C7N ON ON ON r-l CJN CA -d- CO ON o ON o ON a) -d > c •H cd t, cd + 3 •rl (0 C ^■^ r-4 (h + cd 0) O .. ir\ > r^ -:!■ T) c (d 00 • (U C! (U 0) 1 03 ^ a) Q) • bO Td O a> -P > ^H cd 0) CO -p 0) ■P Q) ■p ^-' cd 6 r-l > f-i nj Jd -P 03 + r-l OJ -P Cd •H >. 0) cd > ^^ x: ,p ^'-^ +J ■H hD -p -p J- ^< Jh C3 (U CO O 0) -H j: d < 03 1 S ^ g, 4-> •rl « • Cd -p -p CO :s a! hO E o cd 3 c •H u a\ ::? a -p •H w -p t>- -d O ifl t:! cd cd • 1 cd •H ^H ^1 ^ « CO ^/^ 1 +J -rl o t- > cd 0) '•"^ X P(^ e H (U (a O ft-P 05 Si oo -P ■p CO o 3 •H + cd tn u •o *> g -p - 0) WZ) G O '^^ CO CS r-< cd p ^1 cr\ •rl ^ (U w • 1 0) ■p o EH CO (U f— •H tH d !>. • -p d •H -H ^ p 3 O :=> r-l • P4+J oj C (U o • -d o o bO a; 0-* d •H cd d > CI t-- cd fH -P ^ •rl cd 1 O cd Q) 03 O cd tin r-l > TJ r-l g 1^ T-i 3 to P< td 0) ■P 1 g 0) O tn a + X o ■P ft-n 0) 1 l/N +^ •rl >5 cd-d- d •H CQ ■P -p r-l t— 0) 03 •H Cd U 1 0) tj t:! :3 r-l > o o > P 0) •i-D Cd •H -p Cd Cd 1^ ITN ^1 ft -d cd o !>MDC0 W P d +J •rl • Td 1 o cd CO ti X X cu 0) tH -P M •s tS 3 u 6- <>-• CO o u M 3 n >J t. a. a •« o < E- a. t- la o o e- X o < +^ £C Q --- 0) s: § * c <« " ' 't CT> CO CNJ O f^ c tn • • • • • • o X 00 CO y3 o en in X) «« +> p^ o^ o V r? CO o t. r- n U3 i-i ID ■^ ■H • *, ■^ JD en 00 in ro .-» • o ID •H u? O ^ 00 o lU o OJ <-* o UD CO • » o ^ r-t a> LO CM CO i a • f-t r- C ^ (D O (O ■^ O 0) fei • • « • • • tiO o en 00 f^ r-l V aJ XI o en IT) CO o r^ ^ c § * CD in r-l lO r^ i-H C <;-. CO r^ io ir> in 00 in in CM r*- IT) en uj r* T in ^ ro (ji ^O ro ^ CM CM lO in CM to • •«••• o V en in en in r^ V CM ro CM lo lO en lO CM ID r^ en CO r^ lO in in ,— < m in ic ID CM • «•«■• ro CM CT) in o CM to r^ ,-( O n O CO 'T r*- r»« in o M « «k M A «t o> 00 lO in in lo CM ,-H ^ CM ,H rH r-^ CM m in ,-( m • •«••• r* r^ lO a> CM in ^ "^ in o i-i CM T ID lO tn o f^ CD (D in in lO to CM CM en en in CM «•€••« lO CO O PO .-) CO ^ CM C5 1-4 en CO CO rH CM CO r^ ^ •k « M « M CO r^ in ro ^ o to in r-4 to o (B i. o •ST ^o ■» r- oi r-. +> V o f rH CTi in CM d o. a r-l "-' c Oi T CT> ■» a> o a 1. « • • • * • • 60 0} B CM «J- CD CO r* r- Oi ^ o o ^ ir> in r^ i-H t. g S ir> f-i in r- ^ ,-( p^ lo in in ID CM ro £D O <-t CO • •••■• rH <£) in in to o CM CM CO CO CO ID CO ID in iD CO ^ M « at a^ •. CM • ••••• 60 a> B r- ID M r-l O CM Hi x: o ^ r^ O ID CO rH U i S O ^ r^ rH r-t CD tD in in (O (O in o o o o o O • ••••• r- I— t 1—1 in 00 lO O r' V (M r-l rH in CO en CO cn r* IT) in in »D in in o. C3> ^ CJ> -^ <71 a P ^ CM CM o CO w> o 1 1 1 1 1 B rH CW CM C^ CO ' O in CO m ^ CO in 0) fc. O ■^ rH r^ o in • +» 0) O CO en r** in CM CO aJ a r^ a: i-t - •• " c ID O rH O CM CM « u (D • • • « « • ttf •t «» M M •t M > C =-. CO rH O O o> en C t. 01 o 0) E en X) o en 1 * ;i 1^ o •• <« •« «• t. CO 0) £ X) <-, t^ 1 •r^ XJ o « • • •! en * en o f-t C !r- < O •« «• M M c t. o> in 01 e CO a o c^ r-l §* ^ (^ O « .. ^ .. i. 01 0) s: 1 -H JD in >. ■ • •■ 03 » en O rH » u o +> 0) o o rt a, • +^ oc rH o •* •• •» CO en c -" 8, ® E d ^ o I * > C ^ < o « ^ ^ .« C t. 0) o O^ ^ rH in CO o ^ r* ro r-l in p^ ^ O CO in CM r-t O r-4 CM ro ^ "O rH r^ • •••«• CM in rH rH lo ai O (?> O CO CM VD ^ o CO rH in in CM rH o o en CO ^ en ■^ o CM fo ■ •«••« in CD en o CM (M in CO o p^ CO o CM CM CM O CO ID M «t « Vt *• ^ O CD in CM (*) o in lo CO in ■O UD O rH to • CO en CO in CM CD rH to rH ID 03 O • «•««« CO in CO in p-* CO CM ID en CM uo r^ P- lO rH CO O y? M M A M M M rH o o o^ o> r^ o en OD in m f^ • ••••• ^ in "T en en ID ^ CO en rH CO p^ o CM o in in p** rH O O Ct CD ID rH CO CM CM ID r^ • «•««• CO fO CO P^ P^ O CO ID p-' CO ID en O rH rH P*. O 'T ^ O CO ^ CM o CO in en cn in CD O CO CM iD • CO o CO in CM CO in en CO lO ■^ CO • ••••« CO CM 00 en ID rH ,-1 CO CO ^ CD in VD rH p^ O "-D CM o o o> ID O • ••••• o CO o CM in CO (D CM rH P-» in CM O P^ O tD CM lO o c7> o r^ lO m CO rH p^ ^ 00 ey» • ••••• p^ ID en in r^ CD P- rH CO »£) CM CM cn ^ in p^ p^ in Pk •«*««•« •« d cn CD lO in in O* ^ (Ji ■^ o> ^ rH CM CM CO CO ^ I I I J I I in p in <3 in Q rH CM CM CO CO ^ -281- 2 G- •< O 1-1 w 93 S a: o. a o s [*. o^ 1-1 Tl to t- «) s •; 3 O J c hH :d -3 6- a, -p • •• r-t • o o CM © d- Q +> 0) o 2 5 '^^^ O •• «• •• i-i o c CNJ « t. c <« < o c (. 01 O o E ,-t ^ o O g S ca 3 ^ ^ o c n a s: XI Ch tJ S°i a i o •• ** ** M • O O CNJ « L, O V 0) O o a) a " ■f> a; .-1 in •• •• ■< o o c CvJ 0} t4 C <;, cc ^ o ». .. .. o o c CM O (, 01 Ul 01 E ^ 6 s > C i. < o C t. o O 01 E O XI o (NJ 3 £ <_ o • • M •• •• t. til o j: * <-. V § °h ■^■. XI o o • o o CM 01 ^ o ■H « o O 01 & • in •• •• •• CTi (J> c >-l O t< 01 Ssi '^ g s 01 3 > c <- < o .. .. ~ .. c U 01 l/l 0) E (Ji XI o s s^ x; ^ o a " &g "fe >C n r-* <7) c^ o CD f". >£ ^ O CM CO r-« O O <^ CVi to r^ o ^o CM o^ ^ »-i O iO ro ^ IT) ^ cn in O 0> r^ CD U3 ^ • Cm p^ iD ^ Cm (D lO CM Oi ,-H O *0 • ••••• n Ov CO ro ^ O ■^ ^ CM CO ^ CM r- f-* rH CO at r-( CO r^ c* m r^ CO m to CM r-. o ro in ro CD CO r* in rH r* o\ cj> tn ^ CM • •««•« CJ lO (O CM ^ r-- to CM CO CO O ro ^ ■^ to 1— I CTi 00 lO ^ CT* o in o c» cc o r^ 'T • CM r* VO 'J CM CO O CM -T O CM O • ■«••• r-- in CTi ^ CO ^ r- r- in in lO n o in o r-i CO r*- in -^ ^ ro I-* o CM m f-H o CM ^ ^ -ir fO CM rH O CO fo o 00 o m • • « • • • ro CO in r^ CM to fo in CM o oi (T> in in 1" r^ to r^ ^ —I en in CM CM in CO rH o o ^ CM rH 03 in • CO 03 r^ T CM CO r^ o oD to o CD CTt n o CM to lO o in o rH 00 r- CM •^ ^J- n rH o o CM 00 *0 rH CO CM • •<«•• r- lo o O 00 r* CM CD CO CO rH O O CT" rH on CO in ^ p^ • •••■• rH O 00 00 ^ O ^ in in CO CO o to T rH CO rH in CO CM rH o o cy> C7^ ^ O* ^ CTi ^ rH CM CM CO rO ^ I I I I I I in o in o "^ C5 rH CM CM CO CO V • • CM CNJ O rH CSI in (O en r^ CM en Cm in r-l CO •t « M CO r* tc fO rH rH •a 1 8 O CM 8 O CM O -f-> in o CM Average : Rate J Lumber rnjnber i per « of of women i 1,000': birtha in o CM c i, a> 01 E XJ o o a 8) o CO r^ in r* O^ ^ • «•••• ^ CO O CM rH r^ r* in iD o CD cn to rH '^ CT> m to M « M •« M M ID lo in ^T ^ CO r- to -H o r^ rH • ••••• O CM r- rH to rH CM CO r-* r»" ■^ CM CO CM CO CO ^ O ^ CM O •£■ CO rH 'T in ^ o» in CD en p-^ 00 lO ^ r* CM r- "^ ^ CM O O CM ITJ ^ ^ • ••••• r^ 'T rH O CO rH o^ CO r^ in to ov CO r^ rH to o o y^ in in T ^ CO CM CO O CO Cl> CO cn cr> CM OD ^ in rH Q CO ■a cy> «T a> -^ o^ ^ rH CM CM CO CO 'V' e- % F « 1 1 1 1 1 1 6- &, in o u^ o in o rH CM CM CO CO ^ fO cy o CNJ If) CSJ i-H CM CM Oi o CO r- r- CO r-f O ro Q r-< CO rH V en rH VO OD lO CO 00 lo in CO ■^r (D CM CO O lO in CM ID 00 U3 CO CO 1-* O C71 CO CO CM r* ^ •-* CT> CM CM CM rH in eg f^ %r CO CM ^ lOcnvoovoo^incDO'^in 00 r^ r- C7> o CM ^ 00 ■ CMinrH^r-tCMCOin^ClOCM ^ina>oincT>incD'TCMOD r-ta>C0CMr-tr-rHi-lOCT*r* lO 00 in in tn CO CM CM in 00 CO ro ^CM--iocJ^r-inCMocoiD COC0C0fOCMCMCvJCMCM,H.-H fO o^ lO V ro .-1 CO CT» ^ r^ r- r*. CO VO CM i£> O^ ■^ t-l CD in CT> o o o CO CJ KO 00 .-H CT' ■^ rH ■^ ID o in o r*- U3 CM r-4 CD r- O CO ^ lO r- i£) <-* CJ^ in CJ) CO r* lO in ■^ ^ (O r^ ^ CJi CM O rH in en rH tn u-i in CO ■^ CM CO CO r-t CO o a> r^ CO CM CM in CSJ CM o C71 r^ in o CM CO .-H rH .H »H CD to ^ ro tn lo pH O o^ OD en o O) 00 lO i-i CO «H O rH f-i iH CD ^ CM O CM o CM CM CO CM O *X> CO CO in CO f^ r^ O § ^ in in O rH cn lO 00 CM CM CM lO CM in tn «-H CD CO ro CO O CO en CM e;] in CM CM CM gg CO rH to rH rH c^ r-. lO ^ ro O rH ^ ■t o CM CO CM in CO in ro r- CT> •^ o o m • • « • • • • • • « • « • • ■ • CO CO O CD rH to V O f^ m in r- rH CM CM r^ a^ to tn CO VD to r-t ^ ,-i ^ to cn cn cr» in C-) rH o ^ CM rH CO CO to 00 CO CO to ID rH CO CM CO C) CM ro ,-i O r^ in CM o O CO in CM O CD CO to ^ CO CO CO CO eg CM CM CM CM CM ^ r-\ ,-^ i~i P^ ■C C7> r^ CM CM CM 00 ID ^ CM a, 1 ^ ^ CO CM ,-H cn in r* cn CO in CM o CO in >o f rH C7> rH O CO CM OD OD CO in -^ CO CO »o ■^ CO in CD tD CM ro in cn cn CD to cy> tp CD cn to CO ^ CO O C\J CO OD CM CO cr> I-* o in 1 o cn CO CM CM in CM o CM CM CM o cn CM ^ CO rH o o cn ,-t t-t f-i r-t r- in CO CM -o ' e- o .-1 5 g as P-. in to ID CM CO ^ CO t-i in «T O cn CO CO to ID O rH O to cn CM 00 CM rH rH O ^ in O rH CO in CO ■^ rH CJi lO CM in o CM CO in to CO O to o ft o (D to t-H •^ O ro CO in CO to ro rH CO to cn r* CM CM in CM o o CM CM CM CM CO r-i o >-* O rH cn r- in CO Cm O' CM in ^ in >-* f^ ro CM r- CO to r*- rH CM GO r- ^ cn CTt o in CO CM ■q- in CD in r- cn cn to CO ro ^ to CM CO rH in CM in -^ CO o r» CM CO in CM tp ^ CM 00 ^ ^ O r^ CO o to lO CM 00 CD CM in CM CM Q O cn CM ^ r-i CO r-i rH rH O rH rH O CO ^ ,_^ ^ rH to ■(t CM rH o o o rH in to CD CO o o CM cn CO CO o r- to O lO o CO • • • • • • • • ■ • • • • • • • • in lo rH ^ ■^r c^ CM CM CO CO rH CO in 00 CO <.> cn tn m in en CO ^ ■c tn r~- CM CO u> in CO CO O t; CO in r- CO o CM in ■^ 0^ to cn to tO 00 cn CM in tn CM o O cn r- CO rH O r-i >H C> <^ p^ in ■«T CM rH CM CO C^ ^ r^ ^ .-) .H rH ,H r-^ rH r^ CM CO in to CM r- cn r^ fH \n r-- CO o CD p^ ^ in cn CO cji CO in in r^ no o CD tH in CO tH in CTi CJi cn r- o CM CM o o ro CM in rH CO r- in to cn in CO o CO iH cn rH CM to CO CM O O CM CM CM iH rH CO rH r-H rH o rH rH CM tH i-H O CO ,H tH to tn ro CM rH to ^ CO CO rH rH ■^ in CO P^ in in CO r- I- ■«r t o cn to ^ rH tn r^ CO ro o ro to tH rH CO cn cn CD CO in CO rH to p^ p^ cn to P^ o CO CO CO 1 eg rt Ol CO in r-t o o p cn CM CM rH P^ r-i CO rH rH rH O rH rH rH CM rH f-H rH o tH rt CO CD lO to r- CM in to in o CO C7^ rH r- ^ rH "T r- n o p- in rH O P^ CO in to CM ■^ CD CD CM CO CD rH irt rH rH CO ID r- CM Q in o 00 ^ r- ro cn to O CM CO c^ ^ in O tn s rH cn CO 82 rH ro rH rH rH O tH rH rH CM rH rH rH C7> CO r-t rH r^ in -c CO rH o o o O O o o o o o o o O O o O O O o 00 o rH tH in rH CO rH CO rH in p- CM O CD O «o r- to in iH Oy rH CM O CO in CO cyi to C7> ro to ** O in in CM ro CM 00 P^ cn rH rH CO .-H rH rH o tH rH CM rH rH rH rH rH O OO rH rH p^ to in ■^CT''^C7>'TCn*T _(rHCMCMroro^^inintoiOr-p^co I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I * omoinoinoincjinoinoinoinouo ■*^cororov^ " ' " ~ ' " ~ 1 O in p rH rH CA miniotor^r^cDao -283- r* CO ^ f^ O CVJ CO in CO r- m a> r^ ^ cy n C7» t-* in en to CD •0- en Co CO in CO -^ in T n CO 00 a> CO in CO m o 00 CO <£> rH iDr-t iH ID in o P- CO CxI O CO en ID ID 00 t-l r-l r-t rH .-H in rH f-l 0^ cn 00 lO ^ Co rH i-i o ^ in r^ a* ''I O ^ in o ID CO r*. r«. CO p^ in r^ • • • • « • « • • f • • • • • « • • CT> r- '^ CO CO in m ^ a* en r-t 00 ^ ^ CO rH in o CM Ct\ o^ r^ a> y^ in CT* ID ID m O^ in Co cn ^ CO o <^ r^ o r^ CM CM r- ID CO o in in r- ro r- ID *D in ^ ■^ CO rH O a> 00 p- in ro CO ^ rH .-H rH ,-( .— t nH rH ,-i r~t <~\ or^coooo^CM^ir. oo>CMOr^*Ooor-co cocoTO*!^^ ror^invocMr^fnp*. m '^ mCMcOCM^TinOGDrHCOCTiiH 0 M * • p^ vD >D m ^ ^ coiHOOO^r-^in^rocM^rH Csl m en lO in cn m cr, cr. CO CO a. CO ID p-' CO ID n CO r-( CsJ 25 m rH O (E CI rH o in CD CM ■■J o in o CM ID in rH in M CO CO ID in o CM r^ 03 o in s cH cn CO ID ID i-H rH *D rH »D in rH i-i CO o O a\ CO <£> ^ -^ m CM rH rH rHrHinOCnOCO'^OCOrHlDCTiiniDCOrHO • •'• ■••• •• ••••••••• P^COin^P-CMrHP^rHCOCyirHrHOOrHinrHrO najmrocoTrop-iDCJ^i^rHCDC^ooLnTco ,H'3'a>CMco^mCMin'^ iDin^'^CMrHOOcncoiDin^^mcMrH J o ocor^inooocdr^r-C7i'4'p^inrHi-HroiDCM CMc7icomo>nincoinCMcncoco^c» • • • CM'^'DniD'^To'Ccoin^Dinu-iOp*- o ID in lnC^C0O^*Tu-)^oCM^DVD■^O^C0■^CJ •^ CO CO inv^CMrHOO cncoiDinv-^^mcNi^ w tn oj p E- o w < t- ^ 6- o to in ec in IS C7>CMOrHP^rOOr^OO^COCT>OinOCT>rH ■ «•••••••«•••••••• CMp-CnoomiDOOcorO^rHOSlOCM^O^CO oor-inou3rHLncD^CMO*Do>^ooincoiD CTiCMC^ininn^D*Dp^yDcocMa>ocvi^rHp*- ^^CMrHOOcncoioinininTTrocorH rHCMrHino>Dfoo>CMCoin^CM^rKCoor- • O Cr> rH O (^ p- ^ • • « « • r^ C7* in ^ CO ^ 00 CO CO P^ r*- cr> un ID ro tD •t •« as M « ID p^ y3 CO in T ID OO CO CO O •k at ak M ID ^CMrHoocnco 'Dinininin'Tcocg^rH CC CJi ^ CC (J. ID ID V CNJ CO in V r^ f-4 O OO O^ ^ CO P^ O P^ CD cx> m CM r^ r* (T> in ^ r-i l~\ f~* CO ID in in in in in T CO CM r-* 00 p* o» CTi in o r^ i~i CM o o ID Csi CO o (D CO to CM r* ID V in ID CM (3> rH rH in ID CO r^ r*. ID 00 O in CO cn p^ <0 ID cn CO CO o cy> in o in rH in CO ID GO in in CO ID in rH O O O CO I-* r-t t-t ID in in in in in •^ ^ CO CM rH OtOiOiroCTif^CTiP^COlOOi'iTCMinCMCO^rH O-^COiOUD^OicDCMCOP^rHCO^OinOCO inofoTiocTicocoroinOrHm'TCTiinoco KO ^ r^ r^ r^ \£:> ■^ tcoincMiniDCDrH^co^ OoCT*cotOinininiOtnin^cococM,H p^ ■ST CTi ID CM CO p^ f- •^ Co CO CO in ID C\J rH r^ 'I CM P- P^- CO -g- ro CM ^1 ro 00 fO p^ o in ID ^ ID ^ CO in o Csi ^D V O ID CO O in CO CO ID to ro O rH 0> CO aa'" M e- E- Q >J o < e- m U E- < -3 t/1 in ss as E- E- 6- vO o> in GO r* in r* Oi •^ CO ^ in fo 00 O r-4 CO in r-4 o OD in o CO in o cu .-I -^ CO o in (^ ■q- a> CD fM CO fH rH CD CO i-H in m flO to in -q- •-I ,-t t-4 CM O C71 Oi CO U3 ^ CM CM lO n lo CM CO o CO DO CO ID ^ r^ CM ^ 00 o ^ ID • « • « • • • • • • • CO m ■V f^ m CM CO rH cj^ r^ tJ r- ^r in lO r-» Q 00 O "^ <-t 'T CO r^ in in 00 in -^ CM O CO ID 3 en n r^ V o o lO r- T CO r. in rH r-» to "^ in ^ rH rH rH i—l rH rH CO rH CM r-l o >-t rH CJ> 03 r- in c*> CM CM a> CO O CT> rH 00 o^ r^ CO CO r^ CO r- Q^ O Ot CT» r*- € • • • « « « • • « « • « • • • f ■) ^ r» r- o> in r^ CO in CO lO a» r^ '^ in in O CM cn ID O ID CM r- ID CO in CO CO r*. o> a> o o ID in o (O rH CO CO m r^ in rH CM CO O 03 00 in lO P^ r- ID <£> in "^ •^ m CM ,-H o en CT" r^ in ^ CD Oy 00 en ID O rH in CO CO r^ CM CO r^ in CO CM cn ^ f-i CO rH CO CO Ol O CM CO cn rH cn cn CM c^ in CO 00 00 CO O CO r- 00 CM ID rH y3 r-H in ^ rH CO CM r-i r-* -H O rH f-l CO ID -^ -^ CO CM CM ^ CJ^ r^ CM 00 lO rH CO CM CTi ^ ,-i 00 V CM r- T o CO CO in CO r*. CM CO ID O in fo CM r^ cn ^T o rH CO rH rH CO CO cy> 'T CO CM O in CO rH CO rH CM CO P-* CO ID rH lO o ID CO o rH in CO CM rH pH O O r-t r-i r-t C?i 00 ID in ■C T ^ CM CM r^ in CO l~t to 00 in ^ r*. U3 o 00 ID cn CM in o CO CO o CM r-i ID o in OO in 00 CO CO CO o o in O -* f-i in in ID O in "ST CM CM o CM c^ CO r^ in in >-* CO rH CM o O r-i cn CO ^ in in in ■^ CO CM 1~i CM O CO OJ CO ^ (D rH r* 1^ in o ^ m p^ lO ^ CM S (M ■q- CM CM o ID ^ in o O CO CO ^ to CTi CM ID in in ID cn CO CM rH CO CO U-) fO CO ^j- ^ CO 00 ^ in in CM CM in in CO CM rH o o rH r-i O) CO ^o in in in in ■ O o cn 00 in in CO CO ■<* lO r^ P^ to CD (^ O • • •«•••• « • • • • • • « • • m CM T ^ in T cn o CM 00 ^ CO cn <-H CO in r- rH in cn n CM ID ^ o r* Oi CO *T CJ in CO r^ s^w CM lO CO o CM o in in p^ r- o ^ CO CM rH O O Ol 00 ID in in in in in ^ CO rH rH i-t ,-t r~t r-* <-* >-< O ^ CO o 00 r* r-' ^ CM p^ '^ en O o CO lO p>. P^ • • • • • • • • • • « • • « en CO r- CO O o CO O CO CO ■^ CO •-i CM rH O O Oi m ID in tn in ID in ^ CO CO rH f-t rH ^ ^ ^ ,-4 CO r^ ^ 00 CT> p*- rH in CD O CT> CM OO • • « • • • • • • • • • • • • • « «r> ID en in P^ CD o o 1^ ^ P^ O o CO cn rH ^ r^ CO ID ID 00 CO O rH CJi ^ in r. r- in a> rH m CO in in CM rH o en C7> 00 ID in in in ID in in ^ CO CO i-i ,-H ,-t f-* >-* r^ ^in.-HcounioiDCMomcocoocMco'3"io • •••••«•€«•••••••• CM lo^ococMcninocM^cop^incor^ooiDin CO ininiDP^rHOCOOr^tOrHinrHP^rHO ^ OrHC7*CO'Tp-»P^mOCMr-*'3'iX)OOOCMfOOO r^ oc3^CT»oD^inmtDiDinin^cococMr-i o in o» r^ CM in in rH CO CO CD CO r^ ^ CO P^ o r-i cn i£) rH in 'T a\ CO rH m cn CM in in O rH CM ID in o CO lO CD in lO CD in CO tD 00 CM cn CM cn ■^ in r-* cn in CO lO CD o en C7V OO lO in in ID (O in in ^ "^ CO CM r-i r-i inr^-inCMiDTOJiocM^r^r^in^cnincocD • ••••«••••• ••••••• in ioincOrHrHP««.cocor«>^r*-inpo^cnmcn tOcOCnCOODlOCn ^OmrHCOO ^CnrHCMCM o» cofninin'3'cicocn lOOfotorHcop^cnin oi oiODioinininiDininm^cocoCMrH oooooooooooooooooo • ••«•••••«•••••••• r- vO'^r^rHrHinoo^oin^p^iOr^cntOcoio ^ cDinor^^cMrHrHOtnocotnp^cnvin cocoinincocncocnr-rH^o^r^rHcor-^ cn flotninininiOininin^VfocMCMrH ^ ^cn'Tcn^o^^cn^cn^ci^cn^o*^ rHrHCMCMCOCO^^ininiDlDf^r-CO I llllllllllllllll* o inoinou^oinQinoinoinoinoin r-|,-(CMCMrocO^ ^ c c :3 -285- ATTACHMENT NO. 7 DETAILED COHORT -SURVIVAL PROJECTION 0^ CALIFORNIA POPULATION -286- ^ O ^ o. a J a < F- C) a o 1- < (^ en o 00 H >- CM U f^ O J D -E- m < < 3 (-( in E- 2 oi a. O .-H -& 6- Oi-inrocMCT*o^r*.cyioc*j • ••••••••••••• o>*OnoiOfoOr^cno»on,-iO roo^iiTio»0(^noorH'^wcMrt o7OJ'«r^ioc»00QDoii-t.-iir>fnr^ (MOCMrvir><^'Tc\ja3mcNj *tAMM*«ak«t«t«»M*La%«(M in U3 ,-4 U3 ^ en (£> fO (D r- CO CO O CJ^ • • • • • • • • • ■ • • • o SW in in CM in (M O CM o in en o* r- ^ rH r- <-) tn CM O CO ■g- o r** T rH co v£> CM a» lO ^ eyi ^ ^ ^ n n fn CM CNJ CM CM f-H rH rH CO ^ V o V »0 CO V r> n o r-. in n Cm CT* vo in T CO ro fn CO CM CM CM CM rH rH rH rH fn ^ o ID r^ rH rH O Cr ro o CM ^ in 1^ • • • ••«•■ • • • • • « rH O ^ ro r^ o) CTi CM c^ r. CD O CM ID O "^ in rH o CM in r*. in ■^ in CM CT» in CM en ID •'T CM ^ a> *D ^ ^ CO O n n fO CM CM CM CM CM ^ rH f-^ r-i <-A CO fO CM CO rH ID ffl CM ID CO o O CM CO rH • «•«■•• • • • • • • • rn in f-H in *D O rH ID CM n 0» CM m in C7» in u> CM r-* an CT> ^ 5 CTi \o O ■g rH r- T CM r-t o p*. in fO ^ ^ CO CO CM CM CM CM CM f~* f-\ rH rH rH r-A CM p^ in CO CM ^ CO CT ^ T rH PO en ID Ol ■ • ■ • • • • • • • • • • • CD ■^ ^T CD n in CM in CM r^ r* CO in CD CM O '^ CM en o C7> c^ CO 01 o ID CO i-H (71 CT> »D in CO •^ t*^ r^ O rH PO CM CM CM rH rH i-i t~i -• r-* r-\ T-* rH CM CMOrHi-H^O*DC-JCOOinrO^Cy» • ••••••••••••• ^Dufmu^ooDcoco*Dc^>CMco^^ OrHtDr-'3'.-HcncT>comc7>tn'Din lOCMO^r^r^incOCMCOCOrHOCDCO (Otnc7tCsJinoop-»-icnvo^Tc*(Dco vOi-HCOcofnrHr»r-rHaD^CT»^ • •••«•«••••••• in^CMr-CD^rHrHr^tOCDCMCMUJ inOOCMrHO^rHCniDaS^rHOrH r««.in^rHO<7>.Hr-tOCiCDr^lDC0 ,_,^,_trHrH rHi-HrH t-A oooooooooooooo • ••••••••••••• iD^^co^^incMcorHino^cor^cn Or-'DrHr^c^mioOoor*-coor- ^CMoicop^coo^o^r^^m^O ,_«,_)CMCMforo^ ^inintD o CM o .s t & -287- i- & I o : o o es' .J O -£- m w < -« -D ►-< in t- CC E CT> a. o i-H u. ^CDu^LTir-t^irtr^'J^r-roCTiOfn inl'T^ ■^TTfororoncNiCMCvjin 00r*CMO^ COOO*0.-trO'TCT»*000 • ••• •••••••••• lOCNJrHp^Cn.-lin'^OlCDOOCNJOJrH ^^^^ ^nrofoncviCMCMCMin ^cocMOtDioincMcnr'^ csjooo r* CD <0 rH CM ^r r^ 00 l£) CO r-i CO CM r^ • c • • • • • « « • • ft • ■^ en CM r- ^ ^ CM C7> r^ ir> n i-i ^ ^ CO n r^ in CO iH cn lO in CO rH r- in o ^ PO CO n CO n CM CM CM CM CM ^ rH -^ CO r«. CO r- rH • •«•••■«••■•«« inrocMinr-ino oocnrHcriinoco r^tn^DcD tDcoror^o>r^c\jr-»*Dr- co*y3 ^CMOco»D ^CNJiHCD mcor^ cncOCOCOCOCMCMCMCMCM,-H^,-HCO ^ CD CO in CO CO CM ■(J- CT^ m in o a* <7i in CM CO o in ^ CM O <") ,-i ^ CO rH cr> r* in V CM r-i CO in ^ CO CO CO CO CM CVJ CM CM CM CM r-i rH >-t t-H CO o ID O CM U3 in O CO CJ» in ■ ■^ in in o ^ CO tD o in in r-' 00 r-> CO ID ^ CO '3' ^y »D T in o r-» in CM r-t O O r-^ in CO rH in CO CM CM CM CM CM CM r-i r-\ rH rH i-i r-t CM ■^ rH cy> r^ on in r* CO <£) CM CM ^£> CO (D « • • « « • • • « ■^ in U3 ro in in CJ 0> ID tH rH UD CM CO CO r- in f^ r- CO ,H ID r* 'T rH O en oo y^ *4^ CO CO CO rH O rH CM CM CM CM rH ^ r^ rH ,-* ^ f-t r4 rH CM rHCDrHrH »0«50»mCM^VDm^r* O^rHinO rHincJ^lDCO^O CONOCO (Or^OiOCMCTiiDrxrH^aD '3'inro COOO^r^ f^TCOCMCOCOrHOOOCO C7>^fOinr^'^in^cMOoocoocn • •«« ««•«•««••• (D'^eniDoocTiinocor-'CMincMo cocT^rH^ ooinfor^cocoiDrHii* CJ>r-lDin COCMrHCMCMrHOCDr*in Vcoo'^Jf^c^tninco^cnr^inp- • ««••«« ««••••• CMOinCOt^CMOCOrHOCOCOCT^ai OOC7>rHOCOOCOlOOD^OlJiO p^incorHOcnrHr-iocicor>>mco oooooooooooooo tO^^cotDincM corHmcncor*-CT> Qr^i£),_(r^CMir>iDOoor*coa>r-» ■^CMOioo r^cnoo^cr»r-iDin^o rH rH CM CM (O en ■ ( I t«jc r illJi (♦ omotncDincD inoincDincDin ,-t r-t cMCMfoco^^ininio^o 1^ +> O •rt E- -288- • •••« ••••••••• ir»(— (o>dCTir~- roQDp-cOi— tCT>oy5 roncncorococvjCMcsjCNJCsjcNJCMir) Ocococoo inc\j*£>cvj|— tr^»oin»-H co«— 1(— trocTt nCT*c\jfonr^r*CMOi t-HCT>a>o^iDncoocsir*-ooCMOO^ mncMi— (oo^r^r«-r^ioroc^oo foromnroCMCNjcvjcvJCNJCvjCJCMir) • ••••••••••••• \D r^ \D o ^ Tcorooi'naDCD^ao cDr^r^iOrHr-CDroCicnOr-iOr^ rocNjr-toc^r--rvr-.in^(»5,-(atm COCOmcoCgCSJCMCMCVJOJCSJCSJrH^ • ••••••••••«•• rOiHOCT^r^Or^cocMr^aocDTo y3ir)CNjr»romrHC7im^a>oc\Jo nroroCNJCMCMcvjoococviCVJCj,-!^ r^OinOJ00^O0d0DC0r-lOU3Oi-H (Mconcoo r^p^'^u^,— lUDOrjO «-tcncDU3p-ioio^ncNJOr-^CTi COCOCVCOCJCMCOCMCNJCVJCM^^CO O 'T o rr> CO 03 T CO CT. O (T< CM O ID • « • • • • • « lO (N r^ CT* fO CM CM •^ T m O* V f-l O in oi m n O r-i ^ r-) CD ''J o o in ff) r* 1^ ID iO in CO CM O r^ in CD ID CSJ CO Cd CM CM C\J CM CM CM CVJ iH n-i ^ CO r^ to rH r-' CM ^ r^ in o» CO ID in -t • • • • • « • • • • • • m vD r^ O in CM ^ in ^ T ^ lO <7i in r^ p-- CM CM (M 00 r*- in oi CM r^ in in in -T CO C^J f-t O r*- in ro CM CO CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM •-* r~i ^ fW CO r^ CM ro in en ■^ ■ • • • • • « • « • • • • « « CJi r«- o iD CO ^ i-H in CP ^ r^ ID CM CM o ^ CM CM m CM CM CM r-- in in -T C^ CM i-H — 1 o r^ in CO CO CM CO CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM .-1 .— 1 >~-t ^ ^ CM CO O CO ID in in CM C^ o o r- <-* CD in • • • • • • 9 • 9 • • • • c CM r^ CO O^ CO r^ in CM lo in ID c^ o r- ft U) rr, m U3 •^ CO CM ^ o CJ crt UD ■^ CO • • • • * ■^ O CO CM O^ CM (^^ cn CD O CT. o in o V f^ 'T cn CM r-t ■^ in o CM CO ^ o CT> CO '^iniD • •••••€«•«•*•• cjiov corwmr*a5r*-CT>crimcMo r-i-HCM cocoincMcoco.-4inCM'M',-i OCncOr-^D TC0CMCMC0.-IOC0G0 i-i^^oin^O^vrocMr^oin • «« •**••••••«* rH.-tCMin,— |CDlDtOCJl.-^CTl^^r0CM fOCMo CMoor^cMOinCM,-tino^ cDr^ioincM,-(,-(CMCM.-HOccr^in CMpo^ lOco^o^r-inincTif-HtOcD r-'CoiOr-for^r^cococor^^in.-i c*>cr>coocT' tDcop*.inr*nocrto iD^rcor-tCTiCTiOfHOcncor-inpo :: § oooooooooooooo • ••••••••••••• (D'3'^coiOtnCMro,-HifiC7>aor'C» Qr-.iD,-Hr-CMinioofl3r*co» ^CMCT>C0r*C^OCT.C7>f^iDm^O g ii .-irHCMCMrocnv 'TininvD lllijilllilii* oino inoincDincSinoiooin ,_(rHCMCMcoco^'^min'£)io O -H > !3 -289- ATTACHMENT NO. 8 TABLE OF HIGH AND LOW PROJECTIONS OF THE^ REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF CALIFORNIA'S POPULATION -290- a. 3 a. S CO c W OJ Cti i c y -P o o t. ^ c a> o ■-< a o ■f^ t c -< (i a) ode ■p en CJ t. cri J- o s o 0> V. t. o 0, o .-* c d o 1. -H +> C a! 0) •3 a en o a. " " ear i ase ,: ent : (71 0) ^ >i » o -P t. § O c &. i-i c ^ o ■rf a o ■? 7 " E c -H a ode — * 3 i. o (U ^ ^ GJ a. o X -P c ^ o O ■H If) -3 a o a. % e -p 3 n C 0) (d w >. 0) o OJ t. O o o t. ■H -1 c o -•-> ■n c. § +^ 1 O C -H o! o ode M cj u t, o I, o t. a> (^ C-. < D. o •* •• ■• >^ C ^ o (Jl SI -3 o. o a. ** n •* " " CD •H In « -f^ ■p oj to C § © aj 0) >1 CJ o o L. u O O t, .-1 C 0) 0) ■H a ■H c +^ 7 " L C Ti flj ^ o s-a-a T^ u t. •3 t o O ^H I-, o Ou o E o © £ ■p f' d 3 o •3 1/1 a o CTi CL M t. 0) +» d tn C 0? d >) 0) o ^ c •^ Q o ii " " c o •3 •3;^ o •H d £•3 a o r a i! V >■ 1 a* C\l I-* f~* *H *-^ C>J ■H i-4 rH eg O 8 o o o o Q o o o 8 8 o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o •« «« o in o o o o o o o o o p-' »-* m Oi CT> iH (O CO r- o Ci CVJ r-». o CM cr> u^ to 03 Oi •H (-1 i-H CNJ § § « o o ^ DO in o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o r-l t-4 ir> CM i-H r^ -6 o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o CO rH ^ o o o ifl o o o o r^ O O ul O a> fH o f^ tf> § i o O Q o o o o O o o o O O o o o o o o 8, o o o o o o O o o o o o o o o o i« * M i^ « « «k ■t » o o o o o o O O o o o o CM o o o o iH •H o 'C o in o in lO T r^ o CO lO o lO Ol o^ o * « A •« «k m, ro p^ i-H in CO CJ en CM H (H .-1 CJ CM CM CM r-t fO f^ CD Ci o> o> a» U3 f~* o • • • • ■ • m « « • « • Ot in 1 o r^ CM U3 cc ''I- ^ o r> m CM CU CO rH CO CO .-4 f-H f-1 o 8 g § o o o o O O g o o g g 8 8 8 Q o o o o o o o o o o •k «k M A «« «« • « o o o o o o 8 OD o o 8* o o o s o o 3 8 o o 8 in 3 § 8 8 o o o o o o _ to r»» 00 C7> o i-i c^ CT- c^ c^ c* o p p rH .-H iH iH CM 8 r-( rH iM ^ CM -291- z o o a> n o & m C g> a) d oj ^ <^ 4 ■> fi. o 3 " c 5 o ' +^ C > c) -i -3 a. o cu " * •* *• « u , ia 11 a D 0) < >a «D O 5 u ! 3 o o t 3 ^ C •rH a. - > •• 1 H C ■H 03 i o •3-S f 3 o l-H T O i. HH i u, o > c 3 a> «« <;-. c ; 0. o c t- o t c '< ■t-> a > -3 a o ** ' 'V " 1^ : -H a 1 * .. 3^ I ■H oJ i 3 a> '3 c > o o fc. > - c J ^ o d (D V. V, ^ cu o 1 •• •• e c C 1 o 1 ■■-( H O a. " m •k Sfe 0) +i 3£ P 01 3 ^ 0) c o o o u ( J ^ 5S. >i •• 0) I-" V -1 C •H a! -* «J T'^ 55 O > ; o s- t. o C 01 •^ ^ H ex. o 3 .. CT c uj o o tH -3 s -3 ' /^ o c D a. fe V >- -^ ^ r~* O »H f-t O O O O o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o <> o o o in m o o 'T r^ CO m rH t-i C\J ro ,-* r-t f-t en o o o o o o o o o r-i -4 "^ -a o CVJ r-4 rH I-* O o o . ,-i ,-4 r-i OJ O- .H r-* O r-* .-I «-! o s O o o o o <) O o o 8 <-> <> o O o o o •• ^ •^ o o o o o n ro o (7) o o o tl ro to m 00 o o r-l «-l CJ CVj -292- y ATTACHMENT NO. 9 TABLES OF COUNTY POPULATION PROJECTIONS -293- OJ Em XS d M o c ■H d o •H Id =! ft O PL, (U +J u w d 01 crt 0) «) a) o i>^ u n M o d a) •• r-l •H ft 01 •• ■p d •H CO c Q) u d 0) (U d 0) >H •iM C) •H X! o +J s +J l-p (> 0) d ,-1 r-J d) r-H ^ •• .§ > r-l cd -P ■P d (U g, 0) CO •• * > ■ • • • • • 0) 4J u CO d oJ 03 (U 0) ^ !-, (0 1 O ^ (U o d 01 r-t ^ co^ J- ft O O O CO OJ OJ LTN rHMD o t— 00 OO t^ Lr\ t— CO a. rH_* VD CO ON O T) r-t (U +3 C) (1) CO MD CO •■-3 U\00 O OJ 00 CO LTN C- OO OJ O rH ON I-- OO O O ,-1 t-rH t- & rH CO OJ VO CO ON O »s •* ^ •* "s *\ -^ ^ -\ »* OJ-=l- U> NO t— ON ON On ON O MD t^OJ t-OJ ITN OOMD VD LTN OO h-rH OJ U^ rH rOCO NO-* J- 00 t^ J- OJ LfN t^ J- LTN Ri OO O OO j- OJ-d- LTN ON C— Lr\ O -d- rH ON NO OO On CO CO 00 NO O OO t^ OO ON t^ CO t— •\ »v "^ •* •* rH OJ OO {fSCO O O O O O O CO O rH OJ OO J- LTN l/N ON ON ON On ON ON ON r-t r-t r-4 r-t r-l r-t r-l CO >- ITN OO ON LTN O ON ONCO CO ITN OJ O U^ OO CVJ r-t r-t r-t r-t LTN t~- rH rH LTN f— 00 OJ OO t^ C7N ON ON CT\ CT\0 ONND J- CM O LTN NO LTN LTN LTN Lf> LTN O O CO O O ITN O CO O OO OJ CO l/N l/N OO rH CO ON O C:N LfN •\ •» ^ •v •\ • "^ CTN OONO CTN OO 1/NOO rH H rH OJ OJ OJ O O O O Q O O NO t— CO ON Q rH QJ ON ON ON CJN O O O rH rH rH rH CVJ OJ CVJ -29'+- o w z -rt s^ crt ^§ to « c-- o H fc t3 ^ ana) -p ^^§ c H O tH ■H O -P 2 C o S o d o pg^ -P g g >-} o :3 p< K o Pu ta PLJ «g > CM o CO 03 U +J u 3 -p o d I 03 o d) •H -H o IM r-l d o o Ol U d u u o Ch d >J Jh r-l -p d) 03 pq o o d EH o ttJ ■p 0) d > 0) •'-3 ^ o 0) s to r-J H-> Oj d -P (U 1, O 0) O to ij -p u to d a Oj 0) 0) 0) o 1 u u !-i o d i) r-i •rH ft cS +^ d H to d > 0) d (U ^H -H -p o •H 42 o -P § >H S -p V-( d ■H 3 o 0) !m o r-l O o o. O CO ttf o o -P d d 1 03 03 H o t^ rH r-l OJ J- CO J- ON OJ-^ ro X) r-l LfN LA OJ rH OJ -d- CO OJ-4- (M J- • • • • • -d- X) (^ O UA t^ t— ON r^^ CO cn^ CTN-j- vO CO LTN J- J- OO oo rOMD OO ITN ON ON CJ\-d- LfN oo-cf t— O CO O O r-l rH r-l (M rH OJ -^ O -d- r-l ON rH vO t~- CVJ (^ VD rH on rH ON rH rH OJ LTN O O O O O O CO O rH OJ ro ^ ITN ir\ Cr\ ON CTN CJN ON ON ON ^ X)CO 30 C\J ^- c~- • • • • • • • Cy rHt- O OJ O CVJ 00 vD LTN LTN (>0 <^J r-H d o •H ■p cd r-^ 73 ft O cu Q) +> o (U •1-3 •CO rH rH J- t>0 ^ (^ f- ON ro rH J- LTN vO t— ON rH OJ OJ ^ OJ LTN^ r-t ro J- (M £» ^ vD OJ -d- ro • • • • • • • ro ro J- ITNVD VD MD ro O O l/^ O O O rH ro rH I^ rH LfN LTN LP> 30 OO ONVD ,-\ LTN •S •% "V "^ •s rH H OJ OO ro ^ LTN rH ro VO O O NO OOCO 0\ r-i X) t~ rH C\J -* t--X) Ol ON Lf^ CJNOJ -* O O -4- ONOl 3D OND-CO J- MD O -d- X) OJ LfN •\ •% •» •x •v rH rH rH OJ OJ O X) ON rH C7N ON-d- • • • • « • • O O ro OJ OJ VD LfN OJ ON-d- OJ r-l CO CO 3D LfN LTN ON ro ro O OJ ^O ro t^ro t— O rH rH rH O O rH rH rH rH rH rH t— X) -d- ro J- rH t— ro O r— NO OJ t^OJ J- NO NO NO NO LfN ir\ OJ o o o o o o OnOJ O OJ OJ O iTN NO ro On ro NO 33 On •\ •s *^ "v •^ "^ rH rH OJ OJ OJ OJ o o o o o o o NO h- X> ON O rH QJ ONC3N On ON O O O r-H rH r-l rH OJ OJ OJ -295- a aJ 1 -p Q) -P >-i in c! a) 0} (U 0) 0) u >> Jh I o O C r-l -H ft c8 •rH IQ c U •H ^ O S +3 tM o CO cd O o -p 0) o (1) P4 I oj >5 -P ;:! o o EH O >5 -P 0) -p ^ 03 d nJ aj 0) 5 r-l +> 0) d o o E-> O 0) o d 03 tH r-l O -P o o r-l -P n) d ■P 01 cd a O i) 05 ^d o •rl -P Cd r-l :i ft o PL. f^MD rHVO J- OJ ir\ ON ^ l/\ r-l O r-l ON J- vD on\D m r<^\0 t~— t^ CTN C!N l/N J- ro OJ CM CM CM r-l >^ r— ro <^ r-l LTN CM J- -^ -^ LTNMD ^- CO IfN O r-l C/N O CO r-l ro CTN CO O t~- LTv r-l r-l CM rH CM-:t D~- J- CM t^ CM VO XI CM CO r-l rH 000 O O O 00 O rH CM 00 -d- LA LfN C7\ CJN CJN <7N -| rH rH CO VO -d- rH (>0 l/N X) f^ t~- O rH rH rH rH CM CM (^ CM CO Lf\ ITN O O O X CO CM c>o O ITN O rH CM -d- VO O ro I-- rH CO ro t— O LTV LTN ^ao o t— O J- cjN VO LTN VO ir\ ITN 00 rH O CO OJ CM CO rH MD O ro CM MD CM t— -^ f>0 00 J- LTN [— X CN ^£) .4- CVJ O O rH CM 1^0 Lf\ CM O MD CO rH CM CM cv-) J- ^ ^ CJNOO O O O O O f--d- rH CM CO v£i O CM J- I^ rH VD CM t— •\ •v •S •\ rH rH CM CM CJN rH LTN O LTN O O t- CM CO CO O 00 CM rH rH CM -* U^VD O OJ LfN O LA O O O CM CM -^ f-^S CM f^ LACO CM t— C5 •\ •* ■\ rH rH CM 0000000 VO t— CO ON O rH CM C3N C3N CTN ON O O O rH rH rH rH CM CM CM -296- i) +J u ui a a Hi 5 u I u u O C dJ I-) -H P( 05 d 0) o 0) a, •H -H r-l C o o r^ -P cd g -p 3 o o Eh U ■• •• •• (D -P •• ^ tn d crt d a) o en 01 t) a, o >> -p -p 1 of Q) •H •H 3 C) ^ u r-l -p c 03 ■P crt O C) CO •• cJ H o -p •• crt tH r-l (> p ? r-l a +^ to o o u ■p 1 05 >H c o •H p oj rH ft O LPv 0\ 00(V-)vO r-l r-l rOrH LA OO^ ON ON CO CO VD ON^ LTN ONOO CO f- -c^ OJ r-l o o o o OJ CM -d- CVl XI ON u> r-l 00 ^ ITN-d- J- -3- r-l o o o o o o t- ONCM O OO r-l f- r-l r-l CVJ ro OO lAVD t-O CO o j- LTNCVJ VD 33 CVl I--CO X> OO ON O MD ITN on LTN C!N J- J- t-- r-l O MD -^ 00 O t^CO t~- t^ CTnO VO On CO CTn C3^ AD O OO LfN CM NO r-l CVJ -d- CM CM r^ rO-d- iTNND ITN CM CVJ O C7n t:— ro cr^^j:) r-l r-l CO is\~:t i-l CM CM I^CTn CM CM Q\CO IfN r-l O CO irN.:^- CM CM LfNCTN O O O O O OCO O r-l CM t^-* l/MTN CTn C3N ON CJN (3N CJN On r-l r-l r-l r-l r-l r-l r-l CVJ-d- rOf-OO CJNNO • • • • * • • NO rH r-l t- LTN CM -d- ooro J- LTNNO ir\ CO ifN O t— ro r~- O lA r^ r- t~-o -d- o J- O O O r-l r-l OJ OJ -^ CM NO CTN r-l NO LfN J- ^ J- UAOO O OJ O O O O O r-l r-l O CM O LTN O O O t— C7N OO O -d- OJ O r-l OJ OO LTN [-- d CM NO NO t— r-J Lr\ t- (> • • • • • • • •H ro OJ O oo C7N CM C7n -P CO -^ oo CM r-l r-l 01 r-l ^ ft o PL4 LPi r-l X> O on -d- O tS CO r-< OJ X> rH H r-l <\> «•••••• ■p O H r-l r-l CM OJ CM o r-l r-l r-l r-l r-4 r-l r-l j 1h CO ir\ o mas f- CM-* OS f- 1/NCO 1 O U CM -4- irwDVO CM OOOJ CM f^ f^ OJ Odd) r-l r-l -H P( oj -P d .H CO d 5 0) -H T-l r-l CTs O LfNVD VO a\ -* t- O t^ OJ ITN J- -P o (h r-l d r-l ir\ vO -d- CJN rH CO CO t-- i:~- r— o oo ^ (0 o nJ ^ ^1 ZJ o • •••••• r-l rH r-l r-l r-l CM r-1 rH rH rH rH CM CM CM 0) 3" Q o (U 5 r-l -P MD 00 UA on LfNco CTn rH ir\0 O O O O ^ £| a d d r-l on LTN X) f^ CVJ t— ON 3D CO OJ ITN U^CO o -p 3 rH OJ CVJ CM to J- so X> r-l -^ p( o o »v •s &H U rH rH ^ fc s -p o 5 •rl U) d 4^ ^ > 1^ Id •rl d d (?\C0 r-l d C3N UNLPv ro LfN CM -d- d 0) O OJ O J- o -* CM ON O CO CM CO 'd q5 CO cd 9) ■rl r-l OJ CM •rl CM to OO LTNVO ON r-l d eg (0 -p -P •V cd :3 o a; Cd Cd rH CO DISTRIBi CALIFO: b inued ) o d 1-3 w r-4 1 CM 1 s 5 -p (u d \o a X) s CM O LTN t-- UNCO MD ■p ■p •^1, r-l CM no TZf -* v£l X) rH VO OJ (3N CO a c! d Cd 0) rH rH OJ OJ (U o S o o O (U O -P cd 0) WHO •H -P S w •rl U O o (U cu -p •'^ d r-l ^1 tfl d -p O 3 (fl cd OJ w UACM MD ro OJ & f- ON t^ O r^ -D i— O o w P) QJ (U O •rl • • • • • • •••••• -p P5 o >3 fn W MDCO CO CO 0\ O CJNVO VO UNtO r-^ Ph H Pu 1 O f-l J- J- UA m UN to to to to tv-1 to xi O d 0) r-l -H ft ^ >! Oj o -p +J d -H w d 0) ft d 0) 0) d 0) ft -H r-l (^00 CO t- t— Ol CO CO CO to UN X> O o O -rl ^ O -P VD J- CJn HCO MD J- U> UNVO Ol OJ VD OJ d t=i o a 4j liH d • •••••• • •••••• O K in :3 -H 3 LTS fO CM OJ r-l r-l r-l rH rH rH rH OJ CVJ to ■rl O ni 1) <(H O rH O • -p • M CM O CO cd CJ o d cd in •rl :3 O " +3 " * -P P(-H .3 d 1 cd 0) -rl -rl t-- f— O UN QJ OO-d- OJ rH CM rH O C^vCO to UN Q O -d- OJ to On C7N O rH CM J- VD o o -p d) 04 cd y Vl r-l d ■^rH-^ 05 O Cd ^ • •••«•• • •■•••• +> ^ O O rH rH rH H rH O O O O r-l r-l r-l r-t r-l ft Cd ft d (1) Cm ft o o CO (X, •rl ft d ^1 cd o -p >j •rl -P CJ r-l +^ 13 CO a) Cd a CJNCO rH LTN rH CO -d- CO f- to UN O UN UN 0) vH X ■p p rH CM -d- MD t^ CT\ CM -J- O CO X) CVJ C7N r^ o o r-l rH CM CM to UNVO C3N Eh O O O O O O O CO O O O O O O O • • cd ,Q ^ cd O rH (M ro ^ Lr\ uf\ VO r-CO (3N0 rH QJ Cr\ C3N CT\ C3N o o o -P c ft O O I >> O -P r-l C! ft 0) OJ O -P r-l a ft 0) I I O -p r-l C ft 0) s a I >> O -P ft (1) 1^ ON r-l I Cd >2 ■P O -P O rH C! -P ft 0) s e Ch 3 -P O 4J O r-l d -P ft (U S 6 Ch 5 O -P r-l d ft ^ O -p r-l d ft 4) e s 0) I >! O P r-l d ft (U -p d w JJ-J--C)- O ^ VOVOLTNONC^-^rO CVJ rH r-< f-t CM rH t~-MD OJ tr-CO ON VO rHMDcOMDOoOf^OJ OJ OJ rH rH -d- OJCMONVDC^COfJvO CX3t^C0l/NLfNrHir\Oirv COCDOil/NCOOOONOrH ITN OJ ^ MD OJ OJ •-* ^ o UN J- J- LPv O MD ON LfN OJ COrHVOC— -*OVD-:tO (^J OJ r-l r-< ^COLTNOf— CaDOONOO OlTNLfNOJ rHNOOOrH-* OOCOONrHl^COOOOOO ITv c^ f- CM OJ -* 0N\0 J- r- onmd i/N o OJ f- o OD rHOOrOMDJ- OcO f- ^-(^J-Jt-:* oooNLrN-c^co r-l OJ rH rH -=j-LfNrHQNrH0OVX)r~-00 -^ND-d-OrHCOLTNOrH OCTsONOVOt— CMt— ON 00 rH H rH CO OJ VD OO to •rH u o bO (U ■P cd u o o rH ON ON •\ OO ON o o CO CO CO o o (^J NO rHrHLP.NDrOOl>-(^0 r-l OJ OJ rH rH O O r-l t— OJ O-d- ONCO-^QO-d- c^LrNt--ti>ONOjcuOi^ J- ON OO rH ON J- rH CO NO NO OOurNrHrHJ-f^LTN rH rH NO CO On NO o o ,-1 Oi •\ LTN J- d bD O a ti T^ H cd p pS -P ;3 -P ■P O P >H d u. (0 0) < r-l p O O 3 bO S Cd ft (1) 0) g C) CJ d g o d H-> "iH m (U •H -rl w p d tJ d •H 1h cd & 0) H ^< d d d td cd d > bp -H O ^ f^ U -?S U S EH EH •H 0) CO o CO NO OJ ir\ ON ONCO O NO NO • ••••••••• ONC^NO-d- cnroj- nOrH rH t^OCOCOt— t—r-lrHLTNt-- ONNDCMf— c^c^NDOOJCM LfNONN£)rHOO(>JCO-d--d- (^J r-l r-l r-l r-l CO ITNND ITNO t~-t-— LTNMDND ONJ-NOJ- mcv-lj- m r-l r-l j-OJOjr^r-i^rHCOOJcQ rHOJONrHCOOJLfNONNONO OJOJ-ONOCOOf-f^c^ •v "^ ** •v •v OJ rH rH rH rH CO OJ ro-4- m m r-l (Ts-d- no • ••••••••• CJNNO [^-J- OJ rO ITN-d- rH r-l cviQO t^rof—co miTNNO m tr—NOJ- ITNCOND f--4--d- t~- NO O CVJ >- f^ LfNCO CO CM CM •V ^ •» rH rH rH C7NND O -^ ITNCM O ITNNONO • ••••••••* O CO CO LTN CM f^ LTN-d- rH r-l CONO rHNO ONU^-^ rHCO LfN -4-ONrHOJ!~-CQNOCOOOJ NOCMCMCOro3f-NDOJOJ J- rHLr>NOt^rHoriPnj-J- OJ rH CO ^ ro oo irN_4- rH rH rONDNO rHOJ f-NOOOrHNO NOOJC^rHrHt^COt—LrNI^ cn (M a\ LTN J- OO ITN-* rH rH r-l r-l m 0) •H ^1 o bO 0) -p cd o bD d •H -300- o x> -P r-l C cS 4) -P o o -p u 0) 5 O -P H C 1^ •* P ,-1 I " C 0} >5 H fi P. :•> (D IfH 0) o\ r-l Oi O 1 >i O +i rH C ft 0) 1^ " * • -P r-l 1 a Oj !>> (U +:> O 4J o O .-1 C -P ft Q) u S S , O -P r-i C ft Q) ■P c 0) 1 1 .. ^" rH 1 a) >5 O 0) -P O +J rH o o .-1 CI ft -P ft 0) e ^1 S S 0) O (U tH 0) .-1 ITN ON Oi O 1 o >! •H O +J Jh iH d o ft 0) 4-> •H 1 1 __ -p ,^' V a a >3 (U -P O 4J o o ,-1 a -P ft > O +J rH d ft 0) 6 S C ID o o r-l 0) ft (0 ON U> OO^ r^ cvj CO o LP> r-l f- f- O CVJ ro O CO ON o o u^ao t-j- CVJ CM r-l NO CO -d- CO ONl/N O J- NO r-l ro O CO LTv (0 = J- VO CM f- VD CO CO OO ro -d- 2 s •t •v •* "x •. »» d o oj cvj CM CM CM NO CM •H -H to +> w O t^ oo ro NO -d- t— O ITN O « • • • • • * • • • O J- OJ OJ ONCO CM OO O CO CJN o LTN • rH o r-l ffice e, 19 1957" O oo J- t— O CO O CO t— ON o g ITN r-l O t— CO NO O ONOO LTN o s -d- VD r-ICO ITN f--:d- t~- r-l 1/N -^ O r-t •* »\ »» •\ •v •V Q) d Id CM r-l CM r-l CM OJ O M 1-3 CM » U (h 03 to o a ^ ■p • CO = pq ■P d -P O ir\^ a\ NO Lr\ h- r-l O o O W r— CM CO r-l o cS o! to 3 •s •» •V •* "K •\ cd ^ H r-l r-l r-l r-1 r- 1 V H rj ft d u 5 0) d) o O (0 a; Q -H Cn ■P o VD itnCTnCO NO r-l r-l CO OO o Td jd • 03 • • • • • • * • • • d -p ta o >> CM en ^-^o rH OO C3N LTNCO o a •H 0) o d r-l •\ d ft CO 0) ■p •rl = MDCO J- MD CO C7N L/NVO CTN -* >5 0) CO ON CM ON OO -d- NO ^- IT- UA ur\ O ^ CO o ro LTN r-l O CM-* OOCO OJ r-l r-t OJ -rl-— •s •% •\ ♦* •v ftTd S OJ r-l r-l r-l r-l UA ^ (Q 0) EH W 03 -d- -:t CM O O CVJ CM r-l t~- O Jh ^ • • • • • • • • (U bD PO OO ITS OO t- J- t— o ^ (U • • r-l o ^1 CO o3 r-l O •P > ^ a ONOOCO O O CO CO NO NO gv t: d rH NO f-^ J- On LfN J- 03 03 03 ro 0OM3 OO t~-^ CO •\ rH 03 g V •rl r-l rH to ^H rH -P O ■p -d d -P cs d Q) to m § o3 I a ra 0) s ft -P M -rj C! (U 3 d) O r-i >-p W i oJ -p O & (ri fn O f-l CO d M d ., •rl P r-l (U -rl O 0) Cfl W rH d Jh ft M ■p J3 0) ^ -H •H d oi tH -p tn o • • o ■P C! S Jh O -rl O J3 o d EH 03 ^ s 0) O -ri ^ 0) — (0 o +* 1. a c o (P ^ E « (D a. o o E m o a? C to 1 c L >, m O" O • O ^-1 o r-t 3 ^ +> -rt 0) +> t, a C -H -H o s ^ E g d C 9 a. o a> E o 0) i.d " ■■ o +» ■-I c a o cS ^ •• 0) +> >>^ t. o o o o -P »-H ■»-» +» t- o. c o OJ t- E © ® CL o a> E n ■¥* • 1 O c to 1 c t* >> o P* o • o rH C O. i « lO o • o ^ o :d rH +i -rl aj +> Oi rH t, a c -H -H o CJ «_ ii r-l C a o E E u • « M M •• •• « .. ••! o o o o -H rH -H -P (, 6- C o « Vi E s E n ««•■•••* — •••• O C lO I C £. >) U in o • O t* O CT> 3 rH -P -rl Oj +> .-* » ^ E a> (S c « a, o Qj E o n - ^^ l§ C '3 1 >i CO 01 V f«> ^ t. o o o o +> rH +> +» t. o. C o o ^ E o « § CU O 0, E M O • O -rl C« +> c^ •H fc, D. C rH -H C a. o o E o m """l o +> rH B |S !i o o ■-I • |- ^ rH rH (D r^ in #H r^ r>- vo o ro in ^ eg CNj i-i <-H rHa»«inoocsiOi-i • •••••••• cainWiHcoojCJOiOi rH r^ col rH rH rHI f-i ^inrHco ^<*>a>m rnl • ••« •••••! i£> r^ in t£> rH fo ^ ^1 CNJ CSJ rH rHi a>CgCMlC>rHa>rHO'X> Oini-HCTirHOrHrHrH O o oJinoinCTtcooDO ol in ) in at CO OD o ol ^ in rO P*. CM rH 00 1 1 rH in r*. ro CM rnl CM rH rH rH| o^r^eop-cor-CMo cnl o • ••«•••••! • 00 <0 CM lO rH ^ in CMJ o CM CM rH rHJ O CM(r>^C*>r*'C0^fOrH ■ «••••••• o^^o^rvio^inorH OrHCMtOrH^CMrHr^ cn^r-^r^cnro^o ^ foCMcniHCMasr*^ rHCOOOlinCMrHOO f-. | O • ••••••« •! • O ID OD r^ (T) ■^ in cmI o ft rH CM rH rH I O iDr^^Orop-u^CMtn'** U>cocDin»nao^a30i r*a3ina»OMr*C7>c0f*.*0'»o iH ^CM^rO^CMrHrH CSJin rfcr*>^<^r-r*^r^cr>a>^rHco roCMeOr^rHCT>rHOCMrHrOrH*D r*-ior«.iOrHrH^iOtnrHr*roO incMmoocMO^commrHr^u^ m r-* rH *-* i-t *H Ococor^^oD»oo(n'Oior*r> CNJ ^cocncMinfoCNJrH cam r^a30»«DtD^^o»nmr«.mm • •••••••••••• (-H^ior^OT^rHoomc^CMa^in cncofoCh^fHO^cnmCMcoin inrHOr*.r^*OCMiD^corHin(-i C\] rH rH rH ^inOrHinOt-HcoOiniO'q-rH CM inmCMCMinencorH ro^ Q3lDC0rHaDC\JO*OCMtOC0rH^ • ••••••••••• 03 'Taop--^f^^^*OrHf*>in OOrHO ^rHC»incOpN.,HO» tO(Or)CMtDcnn»rH ^-^ ^O^OOiOfOOCJCOtOtOrH rv^(£ir^CMrH(0^^rH Tin ovooiofO'^'j-r^ro^n TiDinCMtDTfOinrH\or» tina>p-TTTCMn CMco(DO^rHr»r^U3ro ^ CMr^roc^rHlDln rHrHTr^r^'t'3'co ol CPooiocucMinintncD • ••••• ••• roTtOTrcNr^inr^^D CM o o « o m CO CTt CO CM CM . CO ^ in CNJ rH ) O CM -c in T CT> • en CO rH c*j n OTfoOn(^CD^ CM^-^^inrOrHT tf bfi . 1 t. o ■«J •H en fe ? < tc 6 §5-;J o ♦> L en a, :^ poo O O E W t. a a OOP in in onst anuf reus rade inan ervi over i:;os:f-t-t>.too ?i 3 -H t* I U rH t. « ' -H O ?- +> c a ID CL fe ^ s C ^ 1 >> n 0) -p S^ i. o o o o •p ^ -H -P «. Q. C o > B 0> >, J O J2 J, g Per c of U. emplo ment Calif nia secto ^ U " " o -p r^ c CX (U & I coo o +J ^ +* +> c. a c o > m r- o • o *-. , o CT) = rH +^ -H Oi +> •^ fc Q. C -H -H O 0) ^ B « d C oj cu o « E u n •^; " " o +^ rH C a 0} =§^ o o o o V rH V 4^ t, G. C O d) ^ E S> (V O. o 5?^2 in O • O Cm O :d -H V -H aJ -f* Oi i-H rt c i-i tj O -P >iX> I. O O O O ■P r-1 ■»» -H t a c o o 1^ E o o a. o Q E CO O (0 >)-a o ^ t. in er c f U. raplo ent allf nla ecto en rH a. o o £ o ca •«•••••••••«•< k O -f <-! C B E o o o o ■p ^ +> +> t. a c o « ^ E CJ i m a >)-fl o J3 t, o • o t, o 3 rH -P -H Oi +^ Ol -H 1. a c H -rf o o c, E » « C o Ou o « E u « ik o +> rH C £X O S E U •H C n II o o •-I o D. 0) 5 ^ r. o r** • • • • OJ CO O r^ ^ • • • « o ^ cn o> CNi "(f ir> oo r^ ^ r* ^ rH CJ ^ CNi ,H (O 00 • • • « OJ ^ CO rH tD ^ CD rH • • • • CO rH r* ^ CO CO ^O ^ ^ CO CO in .-« CM V m in n • • • • rH n r«- r* O C\J CM CSJ • • • • in oo in r^ O T «5 ■^ U> O • • • • • • rH ro u> ro in o rH o CO in to o • • • • 00 in CO CO r^ to o t, -ri c « 3 ^S" £ +4 w m o C a P -p n a cr c d ?^ a> gj o ■»» ■^ -p o 2 § >> 1^ « aJ ^ -P rH o •H O ? o m Q «-H ii t. av> -H t* O -ri O •P n C r u c o -P jD 0) '.^ ' n C rt t, -H o 01 « E 5 «H h o fe cu z; M e ■303- i-a u S 0) < -H t- > a. o -»» -H S5§ ^^2 O O -r^ o o ■P QO^H ♦* +> U 0) o. c o W ^ L. E 0) o 0- O O E OT 1 o c 0) ■^ aJ J c >i m (0 c o o CD o a> U f^ rH -P Oj +* u o o. c a> o i-i t: a) c I >i m O O -H o o -P t^rH -P +* (^ 0) a c o 0) <-H ;- E a> ^ w o a> rH -H >i-«H X3 t- r- y Oj C O O Oi o t, i-t ■*-> (d -t^ i-H t. O D. C t, 0) a. therm o ali- X rnia :e gion :m ploy-: a ent : s 3 U o (u E E o <;_ s, i m O O -H o o ■H bOr-l +^ +J t, 0) a c o O t„ t, E a) V .-4 ^ O Q. C (l> O ^ <« E a; s^ « v cu o e W *•••..•• •• .. -p I c •H (C I C >l TO O o n) C o o en O t, rH V» aJ V .—1 t- O Q. C tH -rH O O -r> x: ^ C -H ^ c 3 U O (D E E O <« t, 4) I7^ " " +i fH C d c 1 >i n 0) V O >iXl t. O O -rH o o ■*-> CiDr^ V +^ t, oi a c o OJ <>-. U E 0) i-\ -^ >) -H X> t. c! c o o § 0) o en o t, ^ -p td +^ L. o o. C > OJ -H -H O O +^ x: i-i c H ^ c ■p cd t, lao a OJ 3 O o (a E E O o • •••••••• cncsicDocofOiocMin ^ O fO 'J CNJ ^ CO * * * CNJ i-H rH fOlOCOOOCNJc-ICOeO '3"c\Jor**orHroCT>fn cncor-tn^CNjnsi'io O o i£)rO(-HaD^co^^oco*ccDOir> • ••■••••••••■• ii)CNJrnnTir>^CT>cncT'0>iDfoa> o»^co.-Hinc\ir-nc\jco for^rH r-iinaioou3^o«30^Drt(*5CM co cNr^OrHooJOinocn'Tco^o ■ ••• •••••••••« a>^o ^r>o^Ol.-^ocor^u^n^c^J CO ■ o^CMfororHiOUDroiDinor^'Xin ro*X)co.-HaDiominincDCEiDU3io roCMnr*r»)"^cocvJCT> rH .-( ^ r-t ^ ^ CMl rH .,_4»Tr-ix)inTOi-H »-H CNJ eg r-t r^p^inoDr^noc^icM ■ •••••«•« roy^ifJLnTiOLniois • •••■••■«••••• ^inr*- ^DininTincouDvo^ii) :^o;£:e-E-ti-toc -30U- z> d o to § o w r s +^ E-^-^ -o ij M 3 c w E- -"-I g^ 3 .-1 S o (rt t '^ > ,j ■H> Fh C o C d c t >> m * ■»-> o Sxi (h o o -H o o •*^ ho .^ ^ -^^ U o Cl C o 0) Cm i^ g o a> CL O O) E W O "ffi t. ^ *^ a) +J ti, o a. C C-. V, E 0) (. o X o a £ d vt c (• 1 crt ck O u. -H (> +* «1 r-l +* ■*-> I^ lU a c o 0) ^-, u E 0} ID CL O « e w -H ti k5^ o ai C O O u t. .-1 -P 03 -P u o a c o O <1> w ^ E o t. 0) a. o ( 0) E ai tn ) w 0} -*-> O >i^ (. o o ■r^ o o ■p ttf^ -H -p c 0) a C o (D ^ t, E 0) 1 C >> n * 01 QJ ■P £^ o o ■H O O V tlOrH +* ■P t. ® a C o o (» L E « 0) a. o « E w i I a 1 c >> m 0) ■3 ■*-! u c c o o o L. ^ -P 03 ■p u O a. C o o 0) t- <^ E (D i^ o CU o 03 E aj b! C ^ en •• o ^■* ■H O O +^ D O o (DEE C ^ C I >i m o O •r^ o +J to^ +J +> (- © a c o o «-, (- E 0) a> a. o o) E en ■p c r-4 -H >i-H J3 t, d C O O O t, ^ -P OJ -P t. O Q. C (» O C« t« E 03 t. 03 0) X o s E oJ n £ 1 d C ^ O ^ pH O r^ « • • iD o» ro CD c o o o CM O r*> • • • in iH CO CO r^ r^ in CNj o r* fo o I r5 CTi col O 1 CO r-t Ol lO I CM CM I KO CM rj ID .-I >i a. U -H 9 :s Oj o I oJ &. o (. I I-H 0) tH O ; rH c L. a -p ;«•«-<+» n c I O X o c o I n o Q) cd E ; -H flj rH t, ' s e: w £-. s a E (D >i E w Id ■P O iS r-l 5 o 3 f^ a +> tn o ^ c +> o d o C •P ■H i. (U c m C E -o t. o +> t, o r-l a ^ ■g %^ a a> Id a 2-3 L, Q a; O a 03 t. +i a T3 X T3 o o •H § CI 0) S +> c •H ^ t. ^ -P >-, c o £i -H 01 Q) 3 +» a c 1 '*^ ■a ^ E « in o 5 01 it ■a OJ v< •P ■<-^ f-4 o 01 t. o a 0) 4^ a. Q. p c x: o JD j3 a -E- 3 o rf u -o a (. 0) § m m © • tn o V X (s tA « •H -H s- -o X> •o n (. o o § t. o E S u n 0) tie o 03 ^ o ^ V ffl •H « J, ■H i;-. i§ u c o id o o ^ o -o bO -H 6c a g^ 0) ■p •o +a d « 5 . 0) tn d u ^ i C o v4 t. -p C HH rH 01 3 C >ix 5 V (D O -P I, 3 t> E Id ?i c •p a w 3 03 § ^.5 ■afe a § t •H «-< ■H E W o a .-H * r-l e >> 03 •o >)<« a. o £ 3 J3 O E C ^ 0) 3 t -3 o ^^ « Id 03 •H u 0) o in -H 1. S- o i E i, c -P g, >.-H 01 t. o § 5 Si X o f-{ ^i5 i-^ ^ ts- *^ u HH s w a >>o ;. Id 0} I-H C\J ^5 — n >j •O X d 3 -o 1S 0) o s «• ■305- ATTACHMENT NO. 11 TABLE OF HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED MARKET DEMAND FOR AND PRODUCTION OF MAJOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CROPS ■306- si ? ;»i c - c s » u o ^i a -3 ^^ u o c-o or-a\ • fy rn • CTv f— CO vo m t- mo? vO-»cuoj-4-c-»HON^cycya3r-<-3'3p-iv5W..OMr.roojcJ»f^ooi£i«B cyo f^iTNO Of^ir-i^D n-iirvmt— t^3 asOrn\Sa5o^ i/wo r^W f^tp m\o t^iA ■^ cy r-) r3 -sg^o^-t^o^— f*icQi-«o\cy • i iir\-*a3\oo •cyf^j'voajt-t^ Q\^ ^ cy O roco Ov (\J ^O < VO-* (ycOO^QO^Ot— -J <-< r-(SOI3J'SDa? I -cyn^ •cyoir*(^jvoc\isDcyr-< •-* * On O H ^O CO t cyi^\o-*a3^co"^-a ^cycovO t— vo iriso cy-* '^cyv'^cyco cy<3o • f^ •\3r^f*So rajvDcyt^t^oj cr\QjQjco^vocTs nQnsP CVJ UNO OO Qwoirwc r O OuNcooMTicoOi^cyf^ ro fv-i (\i o^ I rH Q ITvrn ifWO cy f^f^ f^O r I m (O CO CO iTv • rno\co cy «0 t ocy o\3^ t-mvuvo omJco t ^ o cy cy m (*> O tr*o CJ\CJ CO f^ >£) CO CTn u> I I I r^ r-l r^cO a\C>OOC— CyOCJN-acOO iTvCO I i-cyf^'cyo • -^vo •l/^ey^-l -u-v. -I \DS& .-I irir^u\^0[^<0^0 ir*n-iQ Cy ^OlOtD o^.-^ i/N-:f -4-3" cnr-icO cyr-(trOaD t— • • ■cT«'*>t-«'»^o-»oa5cyO(*i(^ . .^oof- •-? -cvjor-cy oj^\o-d- Ovf^cy Qcyr--irN'^CT\C7\f^-*^'^or^cj f-cjNrH cy ^-jvo-a- -"" ^^^-i-i ->«iLi~Vi-l -.«.m«._*«. •^ NcycyOrH cycy f^ r^.-p— cOco r- cj m\o 1/%-= ror-i/\c~-cy\Q'*^ovo ooco cyo-* rn<0 • r-if*^ -cvjo^ --d-vo "iTNCU ■ -trx ■ O O .-< <0 [^ r^ir. (O "^Of-j-j r-cycyj' r-j-* qjvdo r-tO cyQ>cycOLOCjmif\t--a' mcn^Oiric— .- -•— ^ ■-' — -■~>r-i'©ONt^'«o(^f*^cop— ir\'-ic\JO%roir\cy^irvf^CTsf*i K •.•>•.•.•. p> •! J vo *o ""Cy •• » iiTMTSr-icyO (-1 j'r-4r--^ir\m \o O-a-f^O-a-cyO-d-roOr ,-) 03 CO ^D VO <->CO [— irMT*^-* r^ r^vOvO roa iTv cy o ir\ f*^- > t— tJNCM!- I O^crt O i-l ■in • i/\ cy 1-4 \C-CTvOcyuNmj-co\ocyQvoh-ocyvO'^<^cyr-\no-ivocy'^ocyj't-t~-'0 • < ic?cy3d ■u\cy.-ivOtrivo\oOvoo\0\cy ^ > S 0) d < J z > ft u '^ a a^ < < o < r-< VO <-< O-rf C c3 ft V m C o ■—-w Cda fcJ«Cc«i c m ^ t> * ■«■ r-i r-i f'^ .-tvo i*^co cy h u ,:3g 9 •:! ; V 4 8 - E B O < I a 4J V < 23 r -307- ATTACHMENT NO. 12 DERIVATION OF UNIT RESIDUAL ANNUAL INCOME FOR PAYMENT FOR IRRIGATION WATER AND FARMING INCENTIVE BY PRINCIPAL CROPS BY COUNTIES -308- ■p r-H o 0) O CO 6 Jh !« 4* L/MD LfN m on J- 00 00 MD t— ON-d- 'CJ o (D 1 t^ ir\co CO CO t--cO 00 OJ 00 OJ rH ON •H W a tS l4H • • ^3 OJ ^ ^Ti VD a (U + « 3 S ITN o O CVI f-VO t^ ro MD cr\ rH g T) o >— ^ -* ^ MD LfN J- u>vO J- CO J- on LTN >- •fH o 1 I-H rH rH r-* r-t ro OJ t- E.^ [Q d -d- -te- (U •H II s a. a 1^ B M ., ,. .. . . s o U2 -p ^5 ^ ~U c a. PC s o cd S CVI OJ LfNCO D-- O rn\0 rH ON r-l MD ON (X, ^ +^ (U LTN ITN I^ir\aj f- t~--^ VOMD LTN r-t rH K ^ ca Sh bO r-l O >H w Si O c3 -ee- fe fQ o > 0) ft o r-H C O M w 1 o l/> l/^ t^oo OJ -d- LTN (^J f- 00 O Ej CO o CO (^J OJ VO r-l rn QJ Oi t^CO VO -d- rH OJ s s ft 3 C •p m en ro ONVD MD VD LTN rH Lr\ r-l rH M W o LTN o t! O CO •^ •\ o a. u O •rH O OJ OJ ^g w o U ■P o -w- M ft § o PQ O •• CO oJ '• OO i>-t^ ^ CO U\ O O ON CTN CO -d- OJ s s 10 s X rH r-i O CM\Omir\cr)cO(Mcn ^ ON < M M o o OJ ITN LTV VO ^^ MD OJ C^CO r-* VD r-t r-\ ^ M ■^ u u II •^ *y ^1 D C5 G -d- rH OJ rH 00 K^ •H -eg- D fe ,, , . • • .. • . Q ^ Ti \o M Q ^ (U • (0 0) u^ o o OJ 00 00 rH-d- 01 UA W S CO hopq (U > 1 o o O cv-1 00 (M ITN rH Lf> rH LfN ■^ -^ §^ oi • o •tH OJ • • • • • • • • • • • • • M PO !h o •H (D ITN t~- h- fv-i CTN r-\ OJ r-i OJ ro OJ t^ t— K s a; • Jh U ON rH r-t OJ OJ OJ Eh W Eh > fe ft rH r-t OJ ONCTNOl^onojOcAJ ^ c— M o tH •v •v S Eh K >H rH VO O < O .. .. .. ■ • ■ • . . OJ M O 1 EH M o (U 0) 0) 0) Cl> < g 3 c -P -p 4J ■p -P -p gS ,H -c! o •H d a a d ciJ a M o3 td -p d d O •r-l cj o o u u U 3 ^1 § -P CO ■P •H CO 0) •H > -p -p o CO -p CO d ^j oi a; rH CO rH CO CO U (U ID -H ft tH p -p ft M pq !h ft ^H CO o pL, tJ CO CO CO o r-i (U (U 0) HJ rH rH 3 c d U •H ■rl rH (u 3 -p rH o3 ca ^H td td o »» ^ rH o 43 ^H d r-i -P rH !h -P ^ Cm 3 CO a 0} ^ ■P Ctf 0) 3 OJ -P H rH x) -p :s rs ^ <3J cn u u u 1^ pq cn a, t:! < < •rH 3 o rH s o •rl g -H tH 0) •H U -H O Eh fe -309- o in X) -p o O CO ON -H O ft (U II U ON u tH 0) S-l I O -H -( 0) 0) ft cd o 03 ^ D (d I— T) o •H O + I II vO 01 o -p 0} s 0) o (1) ^ d ft 0} uJ o ^ e ^ O 03 ft :3 d -p o -r) o w Jh O -H O O ^ -p a ft 03 0) 03 O u X II (1) M on dj o 03 0) LfN > I O -H OJ 0) LTN < tn ft 0) r-l !-l -^ OJ g :3 c -p Td O -H O -rH d -ee- ITN on -«^ oovo ON ON r-l • • • OO r-l r-l CO MD MD n^ VO VO u ■p I O -310- H M (X a o o M > CG W CO fe B H Q CO 2 O O M ^ EH O < Eh m SB CO ■p nH o § ^ cd Oh •• D a) r-JT) MD OJ + 3 E u> r- o o 1 U3 c -d- o TZi o to fn O ■H O U Pa -p y tn '6 " ro w s X O O CO ^ (^ o II O J- a; " ■■ 'd vo M • 03 dJ LTN Oj pq (1) > 1 ^^ • o •H OJ m OJ o •H (1) LfN > ;^ O ON •• < fe ft r-l (U n-l C\J - 1 ■H .. .. 3 c +J 1-1 o o •H & -P o CO CO r-H o OJ -ee- CO -69- -ee- -ee- o t^ VO VO crt O C7N m ITN t^- CVJ m Q) Al X -p o o aJ cd ,Q r^ ft tM ,-1 u •H ft o u -p CO tn o tn T( c (d <) C) F; o (]) > 1-1 < oooooJ^-d■r^oc^r^ j-moovo MD^O^r^^-vo oJoJojCVJOJoJr-IHoJoJ rH t^LTNt^^ ON-* LTNITNO ir\n^ a\U\rn\o\0 ONi-l t— OOLr\CVJrHOi-IO-4-0 iH OJ OOCO r-l irN_:d- OO CO f- t— J- moo OOLfNCVJ rOtV)CO OJ 1-1 OJ-d■o^-o^- oor-io LfNOnO t^VOVD onltncoco CO LfNLTNO OOC^OOO^vo (5 r-l OJ r-) O C7N O CAO LfN ITN O rH OO CVICO OJ ro O OJ f- OJ r-l iH O OO O O OO o o O O O LTN O en OJ OO OO OO C\J ' OJ CJ o o o o ro O ■p -p -p g (u -p -p ■PCcStdflaJp^HCdtS o-poo-pcfttdoo (0 ft o u o T) tn in xa (II U C! fl) Q> O tn r-l (U o Q) o m j:: -P O f) ^ 1-1 W) ■p f> o O :i 0) In crt crt ft T-l u t) -p > ^ -P crt ■p u O -p C) ■P P o C u crt u (1) r-^ ■3 (ri a, Vi 5 o w 1-1 |lH O o O r-< OO OO r-l OO r^ CU r-H o t~- r-ID~-O0J0OC0irMr\(MO OJ OJ vo o co ONh-f-J- r-IJ-CO (^JCO-* ^ OO J- OO -ee- i-j r-\ rH OJ rH rH LfNCO -* OJ OJ ITN VD OJ CO -4- OJ CO OO OJ CO rH CO CO OJ H OJ O Q O LfNO-d- • • • CO ^-4- OJ rH tTN <^J t-o OJ d c! c! o o o +5 -P -P i>i m O -H -r-l -H -H -i-l -H -H -iH tn ft o u u Jj ■P w (U 0) crt s crt <*-t r-l r-{ u rl (rt crt tn a r-l S' w < CO -311- K O M §^g EH H O o <; M CJ Eh M o P5 O C3N -H O ft (L) II X) tM (U ^H I O -rH (D 0) -P X) r-l +J ^^ D dJ P< n) O 0) CO p< li oj ch sD cd I U • o -H OJ > • u o a\ <; (i, ft (U H w r-l •H I o 5 C! -P O -H d iH -P 3 05 vo -€©• o CO rH -ee- OO J- OJ CO CO -ee- co -69- cvj CO ^ -ee- o o o o f- t- -ee- cvj OJ -d 0) P$ c! •H +> d o o .— -d 0) -rt 0) U3 -p ^ 0) ■p ^ ft 0) +J at ■P O hD U) bl) to fn -H (rt •H 01 O U PL, ^1 a. U Jh -C) M M iH 0) O •H •H (=4 m o^ H ON OO ON f-co J- CO (M OJ LPv LTN ITNJ- C\J CO m OJ J- J- fe nri d (0 (Tl :3 o •\ :3 (0 Tj -p •H :i CJ a QJ M -p -p c: d -I i-H 05 o5 :s IS OS u O E o ■p fii u n -312- g o >H i^ PM n § y M > o n H § n w ^ O M O 2 o o fe § O s o M ■p n-l o Oi 0) o x> 3 e u < r-< +J >H Oj tM 3 cS " ■■ " " ^ M'd ^ 03 Q) + 3 e LfN >- •d o ^ M a -d- (1) -H 11 K r- la •p - ■xi d u d 0) O cd e ' -P 0) •o oi h bO u o cd d) fi c ft oJ ^ O r-< s 1 o O to 0( 3 d -P ir\ O TZl O 03 ?H O •H O O ^1 -P o P. (0 0) " CT) CO S X o o 03 •^ u o II o c ^ •rH a> T) ^* bO • 10 (U LTN cfl pq ttJ > I u • o •H OJ oo 0) O -H (U l/N > • ^H o On ^D O OJ MD CVJ-* 1-1 l/\ ON CVJ l-l lf\r-i OJ CVJ O 1"^ LfN CM/N ^- ir> ■w- VO ON CO -ea- -ee- -e* -e«- -ee- J- 0\ C7\ -:* X) tv^ t— fVJ O J- x> o OJ UN ir\ O m on O C^-l pi") -d- T) -d Q) (U A! X ,M X -P o » o cd cd ^ at ," n-i ft ft u< CO r— J- -* J- J- J- J- J- o o » t— O on j- on ro r-l C7NPO oooo J- t~- t^o t~- O PO r-l nH r^MD o m 99 O X) CVJ novo t-- POCO OJCO UN OJ i-i O i-i ir\vo m t>o ro on VO CVJ Lf\0O o t- VO Cy CO O O ITN ro OJ LfNCVJ r-l vo o C\J VO I-- LTNVO O VO on CJWO r-l 00 OJ ITN ro J- CU CU U> OJ -3- ITN t>OX> s^ O O r-l CO (^vo r- o OJ OOX) t— CVl C3N rHCO ir\ ir\ ro novo OO MDVO ITN t~- O ro O C- • • CVJ t^ Ovo O ITN • • r^ CO c d o o -p -p o o o o oJ o PO OJ r-l 1^ C\J CVJ O LTN O r-l t~-0 • oo OJ (1) -p d d cd o o ^ -P -P o t^ o O CVJ vO ON O ro X) oo CJn CVJ U^CVI r-l OJ • O CVJ o r-l oo O cu -p f>J d cd d (d O fn O >H +> o -P +> ca ca ■P 03 t) cd 0) 03 ^ 03 •H -r-l r-l Sh 03 u •H bfl O t< 01 +J 03 43r- ^ V o cda(ddcdoft:3 -p > 0) t( o o :3 3 d -H J-1 d o ,Q 0) (U OJ -p d cd r-l O s o O s r-l Vl o •rHO^>pL,4J ft ^ cd h M (U s u ^ <^ > :3 Cd ft O -P > 1-J < -d d :s < u CO pq CJ C5 P h^ Eh CO CJ o ti cd •H O g o o o y o o o o ■H Q &^ -313- ON -H O ft 23 r-l +J Jh 01 0) P< a) o I O -H OJ H 0) UfN Sh O On <; fe ft 03 ^ u CVJ l-l tH o 3 C -P Til O -H o -H g MD OnOJ J- H OO e-l CO t- On O i-l n-l OJ r-l ON I^-d- J- OJ vO oo -e- ^ CVl .-100 ro oo OJ 00 O OJ CO -ee- LA t-- U^ UTN OJ OJ l-l IfNNO ITN CM Ol r-l -W- CO MD o r- -^ CO H r-l I~- CO OJ on OJ O J- f-00 Q ^ LTN O UTN O • • • • • J- O O OJ t^ r-l l-l on -68- O O O O OJ OJ on • on r-i tr- c! -P d -P g o ^ o > 5 ■p o +> o < u d a! 03 (1) >j -p PQ oi _, 0) W -d 03 03 (13 ^ 0) ^H m E oJ -p p ft •H i Oi -P n h I-) r-l 0) hO U3 u Oj 05 r-l -H Oi f) Tl H 0) o V a u o nM •N WV '\ •* fl< ■H -H -H -rl u i) +J OS > u o j 05 ft o +3 0) • r^ >, ^ a ofl Xi r-l ^ 05 od Vl • > -i 03 S a U u O 03 -t 05 -P • 03 0) ^1 • rl o +H z 0) 03 W h ft • o 03 OS 05 O a ■p nd U E o5 r^ t:! d 03 U Ch 3 (U 05 -P o5 03 o5 > O o< 03 r > -P 0) 0) > r-l h d r^ 0) ^ & o a > -p bO O -P d 03 o a r^ •H ^ O -p j3 -P ^1 05 d •rl hO 03 U •H d p • o •rl r-l p O 03 * e S3 03 5 03 03 03 o5 03 Ul ~U r-1 +J u 03 'd 0) -rl O •1 a U d O U3 ■P OJ a o5 X 0) o5 d r-^ r-J 03 ^ ^1 0) 03 05 Ti 03 +J ^^ ra S ft d 3 03 o5 03 -p P o 0) p o5 r-l ■p to a r-4 O d ■p O •rl 03 03 O o ■H 03 t) X o5 •H o fil m 11 II d r-l a r-l -d d § .. CJ •rl o <; < o5 < 03 -P o • • • • • E5 05 fi CJ Td 03 -3li^- K en g H C) ^ 1 < M b (1< C) D K s M g e C5 i s O C> r> P^ « g g § ^Ir: o o o o B M CO Cn S Q C5 2 K Eh O » 5 5 CO o EH O o o o M M P M X) ^O OS -H CO ■P O O D U nS tin -d •H 10 0) « o § a 11 - tJ ^^ C O OJ -P U O (U ^ ft Cd O rH ■P a 0) s (U bO (d c O (0 ft :3 c -p o tS o ai fn O -H O O fn -P O ft u] • I O -H OJ •H 0) LP, Vi O CTs ft 0) r-l CVJ cd -d i-i 9) ■H >H o 3 -d o ft o u CO J- o CT\ ON c\j i/\ o) ^- ITl OJ rH ro i/N ir\ o -d- CO Ol .-1 -ee- OJ -««- CO -ee- -ee- o -69- OJ \D m CO o o CM CM 0,1 o CM ni CVJ Lr\ r- CO rH CM o\ ON CVJ NO o o CO ON a) o ON NO as ON -^ c- CO OJ CVJ CVJ ^d nd "d a X u X o X a -pcdOcdOcdOr-i •H ft^ ft^ qifi'n w (1) M m c^ (U Qj W) Fh d O crt u a) to c-> •r-l O O (0 T) r-l C CJ Cd OJ 0) o o > r-< E o Cd Cd d) > s > ^ < t^ f- t- I>- t~- r-l X) CO r-H 03 O X) -d- f- i-l r-l ro OO o cnNO I-I t-- CVJ CO On CVJ r-t ir\ I-- J- NO O [-- -nO O tin L/N OO PO^ •* "s •^ CVJ OO r-l C7\ CTN LfN r-l OO OO n-l CVJ CM CO CM .H CM r-l f- o o o a\ o o o o o 2) o ir\ J- O O O OCO CVl OO OO OO O ^/^ i/N OO r^ -P -P -P -P (tf a) cd cd -P tn ft o u o 2 Eh la C! 0) CO 0) OJ ^ -H CO O >H C. ^ CO 01 -d (1) 0) 0) r>3 fH ,J3 J3 fn Cd > to m (P -P cd -H ft ,-1 CO Si -d (d - OO oocO CM CM CM CJN-4- rn Q • • • • O On H f- ix\ ir\ >m •H 0) y 0. -P CO a, -d d) ■p cd P pq CO M H O 03 0) ,Q d ft Oi •• •• o r-t O CO ft ^ c: +J ir\ o -d O CO u o •H O u ^1 ft +> t) w (U " ort in o § ^ j- u o II o -^ 0) " " -dvo W) • CO (u l/^ aJ cq 0) > I U • o •H OJ oo a> o •rH d) ITN > • ^^ O ON •• <; fc ft "d r-l 0) r^ • • •• CVi •• ■ • •H • • .. .. d c +J r^ Id o o •H •r^ •?. LTN -68- -69- -60- ■fB- -ee- CO o o ir\ a> Vi) en c0-d- OO X> f- CO ON r-l r-l MD-4- C/Nf- OJ OJ r-l r-l r-l ON on t~_ OJ VO t-- ^ t~ [---d- l/\ J- f- o on O r-l ^ OJ u^-d- OO o t- o r-l CO VO ON J- no ITN ITN r-l ON OJ t— r-IVO ITN^ NO Q O o m CO ON t-OJ OCO t- H Ol o C^ a) O OJ -4- m r- J- o t~- ro •V •V •* •^ »» •* •\ H -fA- r-l .-1 r-J cn rH r-l r-l ON t— cn\o ir\X> cn o CTN CO r- OJ -4- LfN cn OJ cn r-l o r— CI • « • • • • • • • • en OJ -4- r-l OJ OJ OJ OJ r-l r-l r-l o o O LfN t-- m ^ 60 r-4 rH 10 Q) W) a -p ol •H O g 03 ol U -i o o o o o o o o o o u> no OJ O -:t o o o 0) CD OJ ^ ^ >5 40 +> +:> r-l ^ r-l i< o3 oS 03 o3 I o I y ^^5-l^^^^Oc^30« -P O O OLfNCOL/NtQ CO CO i) O E 03 3 (U r-l Ok P-. CO ft o u O A! CO CD •rl I -p C! O 03 -P ^ <0 d o •rl d o d 0] •H r-l 03 ■P CO O CO W M cn c o •H d o t: -316- O -H 0) - xi u c O d -p fn O 0) ^ ft CS O r^ -p (d I o ft =< O Td ^ o ft CO 0) m X 0) bO w 0) u^ oj CQ (1) > ro 0) O > O -H CM H 0) -Pv <; t^ ft 0) r-l OJ H 0) I o o d -p ft o u w no on-d- j- CO t^OJ r^ r-00 r-l C\l -4- t^ ON CVJ LTN -««■ CVJ CM LTN J- t— ITN O O O • • • • « • • • • CM CM OO r-l O no CM CM CM CTn no ^ J- no CA -^ -:t CM mco -* no CM 0\ J- CO -1 H -4- r-t r-l -e^ CM CM C— r-l -«a- .-I LTN CO -::1- -69- 0) 4J Ul d 0) o o o -p -p ft o o 03 (1) O -P n) ■p Ph O PL, d -P •rH OJ Jh 0) ft > cn CO iH no LTN no CM Lr\co t- oo MD OO r^ LTN 0) t:) d -P >^ S ° ^ y 3 -p o oi <; 0) ft o u o ,-1 D •rH 03 d Cti >. 0) CO m ft ffl o T) a) 0) fn (1) >H aJ >i U -p :3 Cm (U til -p r-l AJ f^ hn 03 cd CJ 0) •H cri ^1 0-( ,-1 r-( O ^-1 < m o M CM J- LTNCO no C3N O ITN r-l no CM rH O ^- rH rH -d- C7N LA •* "V •* -d- r^ no CM O O ir\ ir\ CO o o o rH-4- J- (7\ CM cr\ O LA O CTn t^ CM r-t LA CM O !--CM LA -«- -d- VD O IS\ • o O LA O O C7\ O t- o o LA CM O • • cd « • • « oo CM o no CT\^^ LTN CM t— r-l r-^ -ee- o o CO O 1 J- LA ON LA O Lr\ CM 1 rH no CM o o o o o o o o o •s •* •^ r-l r-l r-l OJ 0) 0) u E-i 03 4) 03 cd ox; O K CO m 03 ft -P <) d u Cri n rH tin tn 1 rH o Cri OJ -P d d trt OJ r-l ^-^ rH cH a) d C) >-i 03 o u o tJ 03 <; < cd ,0 CJ -317- OJ o « ^1^ OCX5 -d o (U I t— X) t^ ^ 03 0) K U ON o aJ O -H (U 0) -p r-l -P !-l • • (U !> I O -H OJ H Q) LPv u o (y\ P4 0) r-l CM r-l a) •H O d +J o -H ■H d -p 3 P< o o ON -69- CO ir\ CVl -£«■ VO CO -ea- rn -««- t^ -e©- v£> CO & CO OO l/N ON ON ON J- OJ ON C\J CM CM CO J- J- r-l CM on CO t^ OJ ON ON-d- VD CM g u CO 0) d p< o Hi U 53 C5 ^-\ a CM t~- CM O CO J- I-- r- t— t- CM CM CM OJ CM OJ CM CM • • • « • • • • • CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM OJ CM CM CM Lr\ CM <^ OJ CM ON r-l r-l CM r-l oo r-l t-- LTN On h- OO ON t^ MD VO t~- t- J- VO l/N r-l Lf^ rH r-< r-l r-l r— CM O CM VD t^ -d- f- J- r-l o m ro on o r-l oocO O a) o r-l vo t^co vo ro-d- r-l NO (D no -d- O O CM NO CMCO O o^ ON r-t CM On O ro OJ OJ ro ro -* CO \o Lf> f- O Ol CO NO t-- UA CO C3N ON CO ITN o o NOVO CM U3 OO no On LTv CO LTN CO 03 r- ro r-l J- u~\ CO ■ • • • • "-^^^ • • • • • • m CO CM J- <&8 r-l CM r-l no CM r^ CM -te- o r-l o o O LfN OS ^ O O O O O O CO LfN \o on y O ITN OJ O O O OJ CM ir\ ro ft 1 t^ no no O r-l oo xt tS -d tS (U 10 O -H (U o M ^ to •ri j-i o e tH OJ 0) 3 ftX: 0) rH < O CL, CM to ft o ^1 o O m to d Q) (0 to o ft d (U r-< 3 o o 0) <) •rl +J r-< d W 01 ^ 01 o d +> Q) +J •H o -P d t: (h Oi cri m ft 3 u (A C/J -318- o O CO 0) I t-- CT\ -H V ft 0) II aj I ■^^ OJ 0) l/N o On < fc ft ,-1 OJ ^ 0) •H I U XJ O -rH O -rH d " -P :3 & ft o u u OJ CO -ee- OJ OJ OJ oJ CO ro i/\CO -ee- o J- OJ -ee- CO LPv J- J- -sa- VO o -68- c! -P d o to 0) o 0) o --^ O 4J to to ft o u o a; o oJ a +j -p o o a. a, •p r-l 0) rH 0) 03 > -^ MD J- ir\^ CVi f- f--^ OJOO • • • • • -d- -J- r^ oi O 00 o J- o on 1-1 OO 0-| r-l CO t— on OMTN C\J rH C\J i-l 00 CO CO CO U^CO CO r-l t-- OJ MD r-l OO^ r^ l/N iH r-l iH i-< 1-1 ITNLTN O tr\ CO rH VO 0\ h-OJ a\ OJ r-l r-l 1-1 OOMD -d- O ir\ O u o CO cr\ OO OO t^ LTN 03 o • • ■ • • • ~^^^ • OJ OJ vD ONCO m OJ OJ t-- -ee- S o 00 O O O ^ O ir\ tTNOJ Ol r-l OJ OJ t/\ g 0) o ? o o ■P ft O -P oi 10 to ft o u o tJ S !>5 OJ ^ o3 0) pq ft W CO O t:) <1) 0) a> ^1 0) ^ 03 oi ^ bO u -P Vi tl rH r-l r-J C! O ^1 < < m W O M 03 OJ u oJ 0) • j3 0) -P ^H f) d OS •H ^1 Tt 0) 0) ft d •rl to 03 0) -P 3 ,0 r-l (> Of > (0 -d to rH 0) OJ •H T) ^ OJ to 0) to fin OJ crt u u ft OJ OJ oi I'd -d -319- O i fe E -p o O CO ^^ <« r C7\ -rH O P< 0) II 10 M 0\ O 00 33 O -H ID p S^ O cd ft n) Oi O n-l 6 o to ft :3 C -P O tJ O CO U O -H o O ^^ -P o ft (0 0) CO g o o u o c5 d >^ OJ II 0) bO • d pq o th t:) vD !> ' •H CM ft (U CM ^X, (I) •H o ft o u o -60- ON CO CM -60- -69- -60- LA -ee- UTN J- -E«- o o no CM CM ON CM ON CM CO CM O CM O O i CM -d t:) 0) X 0) X ^ O A1 o O ,Q O ,Q cS oJ ft ft CO (1) bO a o «d •H o C! (1) Oj > CO o xl cd o o MD CM CM CO ON o o o O C) CTN o O o VO ^D t— ITS CM ON O o LTN CO o c o ■p li>OSCMM3f— CMVDr-l i-l (^COVOOCOONl/NON VO n-t r-l PO J- r-{ ON ON CJN CJN ON CTs C7\ ON C7\ ,-lr-l,-(r-lr-lr-lr-li-l fH VOONt— r-lvO-d-f-CM MD irNVOr-lOrOCY-lOVO r-l CMr-lr-ICMr— ONiHt^ r-l J-CMCOOCOOONCO oo cOooroon(v-)f— r^oo \o r-l r-l r-l CM CM r-l OOOOVOr-l-:l-0 O CM CM c/NVO O CO O coOr-iir\Ou>oocM CM CM CM CM Or-lirvr-tOLTNOO •J-CMt^CO-^Or-lO CVj oorot— O f-ifNC^ •S •* "S "N •% •* ro rH CM ro PO r-l ^finOPOOOOO r-ICO UACM 0\ONt~-t^ CM O CM CM H OCMOOOOOO OCMCTvitnOlTnOO LTNr-l 0\r^\0 CJNOOO >3 4J +5 4J +J 4J cd-pcdaJcdcdcdW) M f* W W i~H (~H rH «J +>0t)0'+-l a ;3 -P -P 01 ^ (1) -rl 01 a> r-i ■p E E ^ f) ft CJ •P u (U 0) o o 01 :3 ^ C/J C5 CJ> K-l E-i H CJ o cu -320- a p o s i> o O M O B o 2 2 Q M H W < M t3 D SO) s CO d ^^ H O o u CO o K u ■p o (U O CO B U ^4- -o O 0) 1 t— 0\ -H o P< 0) II (0 d Jh CT\ 0) •H O K ■ * X) Ch 0) Si 1 o •M (U 0) +J x> r-l +J (h 0) 0) a, cfl o 0) W ft ? ffj tM D n) ■■ " ^ 03 0) + Hi S Lr\ t-- -d O --' •H O 1 (U -H II to -P - 13 d M d a; o ce G +J 0) o : Opera : labor ; manag 1 ^ O M a :3 d -P UA O t3 O (0 ^H O -H O P4 (0 oi ' oo m g X O O OJ -^ fw CJ II •H aJ ■■ -dvo M • (0 <1> LTN Oj CQ 0) > 1 Jh • O -H CM oo (1) O -H (1) LTN > • f-l O O'N < "oJ Ti .-1 CM 1 3 d +J .-1 tS O -H O -H d ^.T. . .. ft o u o 00 -ee- o -69- • f- -ee- o o ON CM -68- t~- d o -p CO t~- d- C7\ OJ CM U~\ CM UA \S.) LA O i-H CVJ -60- OO ^ r-l O CO t— CM CM 10 ft o u CJ O no O X) I-- O CM LA r-^ CM 11 <0 d 0} OJ m M) CO •H 0) < M e ■r-l U Q CO ,—1 -321- o a o o 5 ^ +J i-< O n) (U O X) :3 s i^ tw J- Id o QJ 1 t— ON •H o ft (U 11 to d u a\ (U •H o •• K t5 •• dJ 1 u u •H CVJ ro i) d •H 1) LA > • ^H O ON •• < fc ft r-l 0) r-l ^1 OJ .■■ 1 o OJ •H >-l .. .. ;3 d -P r-l o o •rl -P O •rl CO r— op CO OJ CVJ -J LTN o\ o\ cr\ ON OJ OJ OJ CVJ -60- •«e- o o o o O CVJ CVJ ITN * • « • oo PO r-l CVJ O O O u^ O O O C- CVJ oo ONCVJ Q) 0) -p ■P X 01 crt t) t !h ^H a o o CO u CO ft o U O o CO O CO r-l -P nJ O -P h d fH (d cc) u o CO cu o p tfl ■p o oo c^ o o l/N oo CM ^£) O O d 3 o o -p ft LTN r-l OJ C-- ON C7N U^ rH t^ t^ l/\ LTN LTN-lt r-i r-l r-l >- O f- ITN J- C3N t~- O CTn CO t--* ^O r-l U^ cvj-^ CVJ OJ OJ O CVJ oo VO^ CO O CVJ j- J- J- t^-oo OJ oo OOCM OJ -w- t— oocO CO t-- J- v£) CO J- CO CO J- CO C7N r-l-* r-l r-l t— CO CVJ r- -d- r-l CO CO r-l O O OcO O VD CO CO MD ON O MD CTNt-- UA oo r-l CM -d- L/N-* O CO CJNCVJ -* r-l rH r-l O O LPv O o o r~- Lpv f- LTN CVJ oo CVJ oo ITN O r-l -4- J- Td b O < -P c^^ CO ft O u t:) >i 0) 0) cu d W OT -d r-l 1 trt ft o ■p 0) CO 1) CO M ■ 0) ttJ ■ CVJ o CO X 0) (U Jh ■rJ -322- K O H M K O m o o '5 o M > K W >^ Eh O O B M fe O 2 O M > M K W Q o o -P r-l O § 4) O ON S ^ -. 1 o •H 0) (^ r-l -P >H (U 0) ft a) o - 0) 0) -t- :3 S ^ X) ■n o 1 to c ir\ QJ -H II K OD CO -p - x! G Jh C 0) O tti s -p U • O -H OJ 0) O -H 0) ITN > ' u o a\ < pi-, ft 0) r-l 0) C\J to Ti to c ai -J o I o :3 d -P ■r) o -H O -H d ft o u o no c- VD MD MD t^ t~- ir\ -^ OJ OJ VD vo OJ MD ik^ on OJ OJ OJ r-l C\J r-l Ol m rH r-l ON ON r-l -:t r-l r-l ON -* oo r-l on ON OO r-l OO OJ OJ OO J- t^ OO t/N J- on r-l MD OJ MD ON m -d- -^ oo O NO -ct m CO OJ t~- OO J- h- r-l r-l t- t^ 00 OO J- t~-r-l ITN r-l f- •*e- [^\£) CO LTN Lf\ OJ OOOJ tTN OJ O OJ -4- OJ l/\ OO r-l MD CO CO MD OJ OO CO OJ OJ OO OJ CO ■(B- r-t OO tfN t^ r-l -se- CM, MD OO -4- MD OO -4 OJ OO OO r-l MD OO OO OJ -d- r-l ONO ON OO (M OO J- OJ r-l r-l MD OO o 8 ITN LTN o\ l/N ITN On ITN o ON OO OJ LTN CO 0\ tr\ ir\ r-l t^-:d- O CO t~- r-l MD LTN <^J rH ITN ON ITN 88 o o o o o o 88 o o O O O ITN O MD LTN r-l -ee- T/N NO r-l r-l MD H-d- f- ITN CO -4- VD-4 r-l rH VD 8 8 O O 8 8 o o ITNOO o o o o O O LPv O O OO OJ O o o r-i OJ t— o LTN OO o LTN OO MD OJ r^ r-l O u-\ LTN OO OO r-l r-l r-l m r-l OO o LTN OO to to r-l r-l > > r-l r-l & ft ill ao, ft ft > > (0 to to to ft ft ft ft > > > > > U r-l OJ r-l d ai O r-l d tH n) 0) ? t > nj tH -P > o H -P o5 G O fn o > Jh ttS d ^ s-i o (d •H S In o s s O M u S « MOO s -323- P>H ■p r-l o 01 d) O ON 3 F ^^ CiH 4- c> T) o (U 1 00 r-l •H o p< 0) II Ul c ^ o 0) ■rH O .-1 •• K -rt • ■ cd Ch v fn t O •H (1) dJ +J fT\ r-( -P ^H crt tM •■ :d cfl ,-1 f> I~- $ + X) o f) (0 c u^ (1) •H II K CO w -p •. T) d ^ rt (U o crt +J CD r- crt ^ W) fH c> Crt 0) ^ d P( crt crt •• •• o f) P( 3 d -p -() (> T) O U3 fn o •H O O u ft +J O (n 0) -4- 01 f= X! C) o m LTN ^ r) II •• O ■f-t 0) • w (U Lr\ M m a; > 1 cri • C) ■H CVJ -d- u <) •H 0) IXN fl) in O ON > lx< ft (U r-t •• < u PO • • Ti oj' tn U3 .. .. CM •• 1 oi ,-1 o .. .. 3 c ■p r-t o o •H ■P ft o o •H OJ CO -efl- cvj vo -ee- CO O ITNCO CTN C7\C» C~- r-l OJ r^J■-d■onr-^^OLf^ _* ITNOVOON-d-l/Nr-ICTNOOJ r-l rO t— CM OJ -d- r-l CJNCMOJ-OnHOCTN On<^ rOt^OrocMCMfHCMOJ CMVD O CM LTNMD CM r-l f-VD O OO POrooO^r-ICMt—vO OJr-l v£)0 r^Lr\t^ir\i>-cr\ CM no tr— t-- J- ro OJ CM CM Jr- (J\ il\ (^ (M CO ^ CM LTNCM CMOJOJ-*!— i-IOOVO CVJ 0) -P OJ d d • -p crt rH d d o o^>fHcrtoo -P -Pr-IOO,Cl-p+J T) > tH o +J rH r-l ^i o -p ■p u -p o t— VO r-l iTN on J- OLTNrHCTNOr-ll/NJ-r-iaO C7Ni-ICJ\ J-CM-:tCMOJ--ICMr-IMMD OJoncM r-IUNJ-CMt^t-nOCJ\r-inn VDrOO CMOJCMr-I^OJI^VOi-IH MDr-ICM cr\co CM O rH LTN J- J- O J- c:n i/Nvo ^ ir\ CM u> O L/N t^-d- CO ^ r-l rH m-:d- rH rH OO » oo tr\OJ -:t ,-1 CO CM CK u>-^ O CM C3NVO ro O-d- r-t t-^ CTvCOOO ITNOJ rHrHrH,-l-d- rHOO rH UN J- CXD J- t--UN on cvi -* o CTN PO -ee- OCMVOOOCMOO COrHrHirNPOt-O-:* rH CM r— VO OO fOVO O X) en ITN MD rH vOvOX)Ooou^C3nOCMCO LfNCTN^OOOVDo-ivOOJ t^ir\ r-i r-i r-> C^ MD r-l CM ITS rH O UN O -d- UNCX) vO J- X) o o O-4-i^u^OOOO OnovOOJOOtrxO o o O J- o o O ro CM O u^ o XI o O LTN O O LTV CM O UA o o o O O t- J- CM OO u>CO CM O CM MD -4- rHVO H rH rH-d- -d- ITN CM J- CM VO UN CM on CD ^ rH J- O UN rH vOVO rH O O oooooooo Lf^OOOOlr^OO 88 LTN O O O O UN o o o o US O UN O 888 ^ C— i/NOOCMrH-d-J- OJ t— O CM VO CM CM o on J- VO ITN O CM l/N(X) O CM LTN CM H O H UN CM MD t^ rH ^^8 J- U >>>>>>>> > > CO (a CO w > > > > IQ to > > CO (0 CQ CO > > > > www ■d X rH O c a V fi o O -H +^ -P l5 (U to hfl to ■iJ '^ Crt -p crt Q) ,d CO ■p d crt crt 0) ^ CO t3 -p 0) crt d -P cfl CO crt crt 0) ^ U o crt crt -P CO ^ ^ ^o (0 tin Cm O to d Cm Vh crt d CJ CO CQ (1) rH H -p d o d h to rH rH rH M o ■p u d d to 0) rH ft crt crt cd n +J •H (rt a) 0) Crt trt -H -p crt o trt o -rH (U £ ft 0) n1 <« o iVh rH bOrH crt t) p ?* s U rH rH O 0) o >H 1 r-t (ri S f-l rH Sh t1 o •H 3 (U u •H rH ^^ crt O < < (U s o cii CO Ph S < < H o (X, s C/J 2 a « u. en s -324- -P r-l o s 4) O ON e tH -d-MD t^co r-irooooo v •P a\ r-l +J Si > m •H OJ 0) + rH ft OS 3 S MD -d- on ON l/N ONMD MD J- rH o >• 13 O ^-' OJ r-l OJ OJ C^OO t~- Cd u a X) •H O 1 r-l rH rH • t> in -rl o u a 0) -H II ft-p -d 0) h K OD o a U B r-t 0) cd ■p CO " +3 - t:) C z P- ^H C OJ xi o •rl d 3 H o tri e ^co ONCvi u^^-^-L/^ i) -P 2 u ■p a> OJ VO OJ t- rO rHCO V rH rH •H P s t^ (d fn bO rH ftrH 3 -p <: M j^ o cd -e- ^ "^ O (d a< K <£ (u ^ a bO Oh ^ ft oJ ri td u !h •H § O r-l S o rH O s w C) to rH co -4- CO ^/^^0 r-i t— vD cd rH d -P xi & P" M ^ O t:! O CO Otr—ooMDj-irNOon O fi> Cd ft O M > Jh O -rH rH OJ r-l-4- rH rO -^ •rl Cd r-l 0) cd O EH (X O ^ -P O -ee- -P -P • u H ' ^ (0 e ♦< v£>l/NVD(MO-d-OirN o rH tn S rH Eh -d O O m lALTNONVOVDVOVO ON cd O -P bD ■P fi cd s a* ir\ U U II r-l -d- r-l MD OJ LTN LTN d d ^1 • in (d 3 O 5 3 O c! ir\ -ee- u r-l d) •H • (1) -d T • •••«••• (U O ft d •H (U -P B^ w o U • O -H OJ -4- LTN OJ CO LTN O r-l :i tH (U d d -P !> 2 -— r^ •H •p •H cd •H J- H Q > • ^H O ON r-l r-l td 0) OJ £ u H-> • a s M < fe ft tt) rH -w- > r-i t< -P ft 0) (U d K EH ^I OJ td Cd O ■P ft d 0) 01 in 3 td & (U OOOOltnOOO in H W g tJ ir\OOO0JV£)LAO •rH QJ d H ITN CVj OO tn 0) to in O 13 in O -P r-l rH in :* rH rH ^1 QJ 4^ J^ " d g d M U (0 ft td 3 • -p ft cd 5 Cd td hJ g Eh t:! 10 X rH g to O CO S •H tH d o < OJ C td r-lrHr-lr-lrHr-lr-lr-l (U •H rH o d •rl hj aj 0) H O td r-l >>>>>>>> >i X •H ^ ■H 0) X Id > ft 6 rH l-l J u ON OJ cd O 4:3 d Cd bD > a: -H M si rH e 10 r-l td x: -d OJ > •H -P •H •H rH E ■H Sh fH -§ ■P to -rl td d 1 s: X o :i > -P lU -p •p •H rH J :3 c -P t:! o bo's 3 o H-> rH •H Cd -d =1 "d o -H +J d d r-l r-l o -H g C a -P -P rH d (U oo^>^cdO-H s: d -P ,Xi 0) j^ a; hD H cd S (h cd cd 0) c • • > K rH ft ^^ in +J < < ft-a; O K -P en cd cd -s (d 0) O Cm en S(u tMtd'M-Pcd-p3> rH^rHO^H OrHcd ID ■P O S « td • ,0 • u -d ■325- ATTACHMENT NO. 13 DERIVATION OF AMUAL RETURN TO CAPITAL INVESTMENT IN FARMS BY PRINCIPAL CROPS BY COUNTIES -326- TABLE 106 DERIVATION OF ANNUAL RETURN TO INVESTMENT FOR IRRIGATED CROPS IN THE SAN UJIS OBISPO SERVICE AREA : Equity : Gross : Total Crop^ : investment : per acre : income :per acre :expenses :per acre° : Return : Return :Per acre :Per cent :per farm Artichokes - c $1,313 $ 60k $ 384 $220 16.8 $11, 000 String Beans - c 750 1,128 938 190 25.3 7,600 Cauliflower - c 750 665 657 8 1.1 320 Celery - c 750 2,230 2,0U5 185 2k.7 7,U00 Cucumbers - c 750 1,050 61+5 ko-^ 5I1.O 16, 200 Lettuce - c 750 739 655 dk 11.2 3,360 Potatoes - i 765 638 58I+ 5h 7.1 i+,320 Bell Peppers - i 750 885 609 276 36.8 11,0U0 Strawberries - i 1,238 3,120 2,160 960 77.5 9,600 Sugar Beets - i 698 370 29k 76 10.9 4,560 Walnuts - i 983 517 328 189 19.2 7,560 b. Truck crop acreage double cropped 100 per cent except for strawberries. c = coastal areas. i = interior areas. Includes all cash costs, preliminary estimated charges for project water, and depreciation; excludes management charge. I ■327- TABLE 107 DERIVATION OF ANNUAL RETURN TO INVESTMENT FOR IRRIGATED CROPS IN THE SANTA BARBARA SERVICE AREA : Equity : Gross : Total Crop^ : investment : per acre : income :per acre : expenses :per acre" : Return : Return :Per acre :Per cent :per farm Celery - i $ 750 $2, 080 $1,931 $li+9 19.9 $ 5,960 Potatoes - i 750 852 776 76 10.1 i+,560 Snap Beans - i 750 53^^ k8l 53 7.1 2,120 Artichokes - i 1,313 500 U18 82 6.2 1+,100 Carrots - i 750 1,077 953 I2I+ 16.5 l+,960 Cauliflower - i 750 665 657 8 1.1 320 Lettuce - i 750 767 631 136 18.1 5,1+40 Ensilage - i 450 213 187 26 5.8 3,120 Dry Beans - i 563 316 228 88 15.6 10, 560 Sugar Beets - i 563 288 2U5 h3 7.6 2,580 Flowers - i 1,800 2,950 2,1+03 5U7 30.1+ 10,91+0 Walnuts - i 908 5214- 320 20U 22.5 8,160 Lemons - i 2,025 1,598 1,170 1+28 21.1 12,81+0 Valencia Oranges - i 2,025 1,039 854 185 9.1 5,550 Snap Beans - c 750 53^^ I198 36 2+.8 1,1+1+0 Flowers - c 1,800 2,950 2,315 635 35.3 12,700 Walnuts - c 983 52it 341 183 18.6 7,320 Lemons - c 2,025 1,598 1,182 i+l6 20.5 12,1+80 Valencia Oranges - c 2,025 1,039 839 200 9.9 6,000 Avocados - c 2,025 730 1+55 275 13.6 4,125 a. Truck crop acreage double cropped 100 per cent. c = coastal areas. i = interior areas. b. Includes all cash costs, preliminary estimated charges for project water, and depreciation; excludes management charge. -328- TABLE 108 DERIVATION OF AWMJAL RETURN TO INVESTMENT FOR IRRIGATED CROPS IN THE VENTURA COUOTY SERVICE AREA : Equity : Gross : Total Crop^ : investment : per acre : income :per acre : expenses :per acre : Return : Return :Per acre :Per cent :per farm Spinach $ 900 $ 320 $ 289 $ 31 3.h $1,2U0 Cabbage 900 681 5Mt 137 15.2 5,it80 Broccoli 900 330 299 31 3A l,2i^0 Green Beans 900 373 302 71 7.9 2,8J+0 Peppers 900 629 i+71 158 17.6 6,320 Lettuce 900 696 63h 62 6.9 2,1+80 Tomatoes 900 517 i+01 116 12.9 i+,61+0 Strawberries 2,100 U,780 3,790 990 i^7.1 9,900 Dry Lima Beans 975 316 270 k6 i^.7 2,760 Flowers 1,800 2,950 2,533 i.17 23.2 8,340 Walnuts 1,350 502 403 99 7.3 3,960 Lemons 2,025 l,k7k 1,206 268 13.2 8,040 Valencia Oranges 2,025 1,039 865 17i+ 8.6 5,220 Avocados 2,025 828 517 311 15. i^ i+,670 a. b. Truck crop acreage double cropped 100 per cent except for strawberries. Includes all cash costs, preliminary estimated charges for project water, and depreciation; excludes management charge. ■329- TABLE 109 DERIVATION OF ANNUAL RETURN TO INVESTMENT FOR IRRIGATED CROPS IN COASTAL RIVERSIDE COUNTY : Equity : Gross : Total Crop^ : investment : income :expenses : Ret I am : Return : per acre :per acre :per acre^ :Per acre :Per cent .•per farm Watermelons $ 900 $ 622 $ kk9 $173 19.2 $ 6,920 CantaLloupes 900 738 571 167 18.6 6,680 Onions it.50 1,530 1,188 31^2 76.0 13,680 Spring Potatoes 750 81+9 760 89 11.9 7,120 Fall Potatoes 750 566 547 19 2.5 1,520 Sweet Potatoes 1,313 7^+0 536 20U 15.5 8,160 Navel Oranges 1,725 1,117 823 29 1+ 17.0 11,760 Valencia Oranges 1,725 89B 783 115 6.7 ^600 Grapefruit 1,725 1,613 1,057 556 32.2 22, 2UO a. Truck crop acreage double cropped 75 per cent. b. Includes all cash costs, preliminary estimated charges for project water, and depreciation; excludes management charge . -330- TABLE 110 DERIVATION OF AWMJAL RETURN TO INVESTMENT FOR IRRIGATED CROPS IN COASTAL SAN DIEGO AND SOUTHWESTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTIES : Equity : Gross : Total Crop : investment : per acre : income :per acre : expenses :per acre^ : Return : Return :Per acre :Per cent :per farm Green Beans $ 900 $1, 321 $1, 067 $ 25h 28.2 $10, 160 Celery^ 900 1,250 l,0ij-2 208 23.1 8,320 Lettuce^ 900 781 576 205 22.8 8,200 Cabbage^ 900 510 i4-02 108 12.0 U,320 Cucumbers" 900 1,700 l,2Ui+ 1+56 50.7 18, 240 Peppers^ 900 629 i^97 132 14.7 5,280 Spring Potatoes^ 750 81+9 760 89 11.9 7,120 Fall Potatoes^ 750 566 5^+7 19 2.5 1,520 Dry Onions^ k'^0 1,530 1,188 3^2 76.0 13,680 Spring Tomatoes 1,800 3,0i+0 2,070 970 53.9 19, 400 Fall Tomatoes 1,800 3,705 2,512 1,193 66.3 23,860 Strawberries 1,500 3,240 2,817 U23 28.2 6,345 Cut Flowers 1,800 2,950 2,533 kl-J 23.2 8,340 Peaches 1,200 925 7^7 178 1I+.8 7,120 Lemons 1,500 1,365 1,026 337 22.5 10, 110 Valencia Oranges 1,500 802 717 85 5.7 2,550 Avocados 1, 500 1,020 627 393 26.2 11,790 a. Includes all cash costs, preliminary estimated charges for project water, and depreciation; excludes management charge. b. This truck crop acreage double cropped 100 per cent. c. This truck crop acreage double cropped 75 per cent. I -331- TABLE 111 DERIVATION OF ANNUAL RETURN TO INVESTMENT FOR IRRIGATED CROPS IN THE KERN COUNTY SERVICE AREA : Equity : Gross Land class^ : invest-: : ment : income per : Total : expenses :per acre^ Return Return Crop per farm :per acre: acre Per acre Per cent Potatoes V, Vs $363 $678 $513 $165 k3.k $13,200 Potatoes VI 313 663 579 8U 26.8 6,720 Potatoes All 359 677 518 159 UU.2 12,720 Melons V, Vs 363 605 U88 117 32.2 9,360 All Truck All 362 631 500 131 36.3 10,1480 Cotton V, Vs 350 332 239 93 26.6 11,160 Cotton VI, Vis 250 266 213 53 21.2 6,360 Cotton Vhs, Vp, Vps 220 2i+0 197 h3 19.5 5,160 Cotton All 328 316 232 8k 25.6 10,080 Sugar Beets V, Vs, Vsa 300 280 229 51 17.0 6,120 Sugar Beets Vhs, Vp 200 2U0 21I+ 26 13.0 3,120 Sugar Beets Vh, Vps 200 2U0 211 29 l'^.5 3,i^80 Sugar Beets All 296 279 228 51 17.2 6,120 Alfalfa Seed V, Vs 379 203 192 11 2.9 1,760 Alfalfa Seed VI, Vis 279 196 176 20 7.2 3,200 Alfalfa Seed All 37i^ 203 191 12 3.1 1,920 Milo Vs 288 135 116 19 6.6 4,560 Grain V, Vs, Vp 173 72 68 k 2.3 960 Table Grapes V, Vs 513 kk^ 363 &k 16. i+ 5,242 Table Grapes VI 525 ^+55 331 12U 23.6 7,440 Table Grapes H 525 h^3 3lh 81 15. U 4,860 Table Grapes HI 525 i^55 355 100 19.0 6,000 Table Grapes Hp, Ht U25 390 353 37 8.7 2,960 Table Grapes Vr, Hr i+35 396 352 kh 10.1 3,432 Table Grapes All 502 1+lvl 363 78 15.1+ 5,030 Plioms V, H 6ii8 640 1^65 175 27.0 7,000 Plums VI, Vr 50i+ 563 1^63 100 19.8 4,000 Plvims HI, Ht, Htr I198 560 i+22 138 27.7 5,520 Plums All 635 633 U63 170 26.8 6,800 -332- DERIVATION OF ANNUAL RETURN TO INVESTMENT FOR IRRIGATED CROPS IN THE KERN COUNTY SERVICE AREA (continued) : Equity : Gross Tfl.nd class^ : invest-: : ment : inc ome per : Total : : expenses ; :per acre : Return Return Crop per farm :per acre: acre Per acre- Per cent Navel Oranges V, H $788 $680 $582 $ 98 12. i+ $ 3,920 Navel Oranges Vr, Hr 658 595 5k& hi 7.1 2,820 Navel Oranges Hp, Ht, Htr 66k 599 538 61 10.2 3,600 Navel Oranges All 773 670 576 9h 12.2 3,976 a. V - Smooth lying valley lands suitable for all climatically adapted crops. H - Hill lands with maximum slope of 20 per cent suitable for all climatically adapted crops. 1 - Coarse textured soils, h - Very heavy textured soils, p - Shallow effective root zone, r - Rocks present within plow zone prevent using the land for cultivated crops, s - Saline and alkaline salts present in soil, t - Hill lands with maximiom slopes up to 30 per cent. b. Includes all cash costs, preliminary estimated charges for water, and depreciation; excludes management charge. -333- ATTACHMENT NO. 1^ PROJECTED NET ACREAGES OF IRRIGATED CROPS BY COUNTIES -33^^- I TABLE 112 PROJECTED ITET ACREAGES OF IRRIGATED CROPS IN THE SAN LUIS OBISPO SERVICE AREA Crop : I960 : 1970 : 1960 : 1990 : 2000 : 2010 : 2020 Alfalfa 9,505 8,825 9,600 9,500 9,500 10,000 9,600 Irrigated Pasture 3,380 3,535 3,600 3,800 3,900 i+,150 3,800 Field Crops 1,795 2,125 2,650 2,700 2,600 2,500 2,700 Hay and Grain 1,080 1,050 1,050 1,050 1,050 1,150 1,050 Trxick Crops 3 Mo 5,875 11,000 20,650 21,050 18,800 15,950 Flowers 150 150 100 100 100 Deciduous Fruits* 250 1,150 2,700 i|,900 5,300 5,500 5,i+00 TOTALS 19,630 22,700 30,700 42,700 U3,500 1+2,100 38,500 ■"■Includes nuts and vines, TABLE 113 PROJECTED NET ACREAGES OF IRRIGATED CROPS IN THE SANTA BARBARA SERVICE AREA Crop : I960 - : 1970 : 1950 : 1990 : 2000 : 2010 : 2020 Alfalfa 5,875 6,385 6,060 6,060 5,860 5,860 5,860 Irrigated Pasture e,3h5 7,000 6,625 6,625 6,850 6,800 6,800 Field Crops 15,600 13,300 12,800 12,800 10,840 10,850 10,850 Hay and Grain 230 100 100 100 100 100 100 Truck Crops 26,530 26,550 33,650 36,800 36,500 36,500 36,400 Flo^wers 2,900 3,175 l+,000 4,200 4,400 4,400 4,400 Deciduous Fruits'* 2,710 2,985 3,985 4,685 4,310 4,310 4,310 Lemons 10,500 lO,6Uo 12,890 l4,240 15,240 18, 540 19,040 Oranges Uoo i;80 1,000 1,400 1,450 1,450 1,550 Avocados 710 985 1,490 1,990 3,450 3,590 3,590 TOTALS 72,000 71,600 82,600 88,900 89,000 92,400 92,900 ■^Includes nuts and vines. -335- TABLE llU PROJECTED NET ACREAGES OF IRRIGATED CROPS IN THE VENTURA COUNTY SERVICE AREA Crop : I960 : 1970 : 1980 : 1990 : 2000 : 2010 : 2020 Alfalfa 2,075 1,975 1,U00 1,200 1,100 900 800 Irrigated Pasture 1,125 1,125 800 700 700 500 500 Field Crops 30,200 23,500 19,700 lJ+,000 10,700 5,600 4,600 Hay and Grain 900 UOO 200 Truck Crops 19,900 l8,iiOO 15,700 13,300 9,900 7,900 5,800 Flowers 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 Deciduous Fruits* 13,300 13,900 12,300 11,200 10,500 8,900 7,900 Lemons 28,500 35,900 33,600 29,900 28,400 22,300 18,200 Oranges 23,^00 2U,100 22,U00 20,100 18,800 14,400 10,500 Avocados 2,i|00 l|,500 4,200 3,900 3,700 2,900 2,300 TOTALS 122,000 121^,000 110,500 9*^,500 8U,000 63,600 50,800 ♦Includes nuts and vines. TABLE 115 PROJECTED NET ACREAGES OF IRRIGATED CROPS IN COASTAL LOS ANGELES COUNTY Crop : I960 : 1970 : 19«0 : 1990 : 2000 : 2010 : 2020 Alfalfa 10,750 2,500 300 Field Crops 1,300 500 100 Truck Crops 4,950 1,400 500 Deciduous Fruits* 1,530 200 Oranges 4,070 800 TOTALS 22,600 5,400 900 ♦Includes nuts and vines. -336- TABLE 116 PROJECTED NET ACREAGES OF IRRIGATED CROPS IN ORANGE COUNTY Crop : I960 : 1970 : 198O : 1990 : 2000 : 2010 : 2020 Alfalfa Field Crops Truck Crops Deciduous Fruits* Oranges 5,200 17,700 20,200 600 i+3,100 2,000 10,100 l6,i+00 25,300 1,000 5,800 11,U00 3,i+00 7,600 1,700 u,uoo 900 TOTALS 86,800 53,800 18,200 11,000 6,100 900 ^Includes nuts and vines. TABLE 117 t PROJECTED NET ACREAGES OF IRRIGATED CROPS IN COASTAL SAN BERNAEDINO COUNTY Crop : I960 : 1970 : 198O : 1990 : 2000 : 2010 : 2020 Alfalfa 3,860 3,159 2,ii30 1,190 260 Irrigated Pastvire 7,3^^0 5,591 U,270 2,010 kko Field Crops 1,000 725 3^3 210 2i^0 90 Hay and Grain 700 525 205 90 60 10 Truck Crops 15,050 15,200 lU,500 12,100 8,1^00 4,800 Flowers 2,350 1,850 1,030 655 320 105 Deciduous Fruits* 17,900 12,800 7,050 U,100 1,700 700 300 Lemons 6,5^1 5,7^+2 i+,362 2,102 1,272 l,li^7 Oranges 25,055 21,700 13,900 8,035 5,100 9U0 Avocados k 8 8 8 8 8 TOTALS 79,800 67,300 U«,100 30,500 17,800 7,800 300 * Includes nuts and vines. ■337- TABLE 110 PROJECTED NET ACREAGES OF IRRIGATED CROPS IN COASTAL RIVERSIDE COUNTY Crop : I960 : 1970 : 1900 : 1990 : 2000 : 2010 : 2020 Alfalfa «,500 7,'+00 5,700 3,000 2,300 1,U00 600 Irrigated Pasture 7,800 6,600 5,500 3,200 2,000 500 300 Field Crops 1,500 2,100 2,600 5,000 5,900 5,600 6,100 Hay and Grain 7,300 6, boo 5,i+00 U,700 3,«00 3,200 i+,000 Truck Crops l6,tS00 19,300 23,200 28,300 31,300 31,200 2U,500 Deciduous Frxiits* 11,500 10,100 7,500 5,600 3,«00 2,900 2,500 Grapefruit 1,000 1,200 1,UOO 1,800 2,600 2,000 2,i^00 Lemons 3,300 2,700 2,300 1,500 1,300 1,000 200 Oranges 17,100 13,700 12,500 10,800 b,tiOo 7,U00 5,300 Avocados 300 300 200 200 100 TOTALS 75,100 70,200 66, 300 6i^,U00 61,900 56,000 1+6,000 ■^Includes nuts and vines. TABLE 119 PROJECTED NET ACREAGES OF IRRIGATED CROPS IN COASTAL SAN DIEGO AND SOUTHWESTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTIES Crop : I960 : 1970 : 1980 : 1990 : 2000 : 2010 : 2020 Alfalfa 3,750 1,500 1,250 850 600 500 500 Irrigated Pasture 3,750 1,500 1,250 850 600 500 500 Field Crops 1,500 Hay and Grain 6,500 700 300 Truck Crops 15,000 38,000 U6,700 51,900 55,700 60,300 6U,900 Flowers 1,500 1,300 1,500 1,700 1,800 2,100 1,900 Deciduous Fruits* 2,000 1,500 1,200 1,000 700 500 500 Citrus and Avocados 26,500 50,000 68, 300 9l+,300 106,600 109,800 110,000 TOTALS 60,500 9^^,500 120,500 150,600 166,000 173,700 178,300 ■"■Includes nuts and vines. -338. TABLE 120 PROJECTED NET ACREAGES OF IRRIGATED CROPS IN THE ANTELOPE -MOJ AVE SERVICE AREA^ I960 : 1970 : 19fciO : 1990 : 2000 : 2010 : 2020 Crop Alfalfa Irrigated Pasture Field Crops Hay and Grain Truck Crops Deciduous Fruits^ TOTALS 1+9,900 13,600 i+,800 17,050 2,500 1,650 i+8,050 13,1+00 U,700 16,700 3,000 1,050 UU,600 12,100 3,700 13,800 3,800 500 37,900 10,100 3,100 10,000 i+,4oo 27,200 8,300 2,U00 6,300 5,300 16,800 6,300 1,300 3,200 U,700 lU,800 5,600 1,200 1,700 l+,200 89,500 86,900 78,500 65,500 U9,500 32,300 27,500 Comprises portions of Kern, Los Angeles, and San Bernardino Counties. Includes nuts and vines. TABLE 121 PROJECTED NET ACREAGES OF IRRIGATED CROPS IN KERN COUNTY SERVICE AREA (SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY) Crop : I960 : 1970 : 198O : 1990 : 2000 : 2010 : 2020 Alfalfa Hay 62,1+00 70,100 80,800 76,500 77,100 68,900 65,000 Alfalfa Seed 28,700 30,800 35,500 1+7,000 1+8,900 1+9,200 1+9,200 Pasture 11,500 15,000 2l+,700 26,300 26,800 23,900 22,500 Miscellaneous Field Crops 51,100 65,000 9l+,l+00 120,700 131,600 125,700 123,600 Hay and Grain 51,800 1+7,700 1+7,000 1+7,600 1+8,1+00 1+2,900 1+1,700 Truck Crops 6,800 13,800 26,700 1+3,200 1+6,900 1+6,900 1+6,800 Cotton 121,000 11+8,600 208,1+00 266,700 287,800 283,200 279,300 Potatoes 9,1+00 12,900 19,800 27,600 29,300 29,100 28,800 Sugar Beets ^+,500 6,100 7,700 7,800 8,200 8,200 8,200 Rice 7,300 7,100 lU,200 16,700 16,700 17,100 17,100 Deciduous Fruits and Nuts 100 5,100 22,200 1+5,600 55,100 57,600 57,600 Grapes 3,300 5,200 8,600 12,000 13,800 ll+,300 ll+,200 Citrus Fruit l+,200 16,500 33,700 1+0,700 1+2,600 1+2,600 TOTALS 357,900 1+31,600 606,500 771,^00 831,300 809,600 796,600 -339- TABLE 122 PROJECTED NET ACREAGES OF IRRIGATED CROPS IN THE UPPER ANTELOPE PLAIN AREA OF KERN COUNTY I960 : 1970": 19^30 : 1990 : 2000 : 2010" Crop 2020 Alfalfa Seed Miscellaneous Field Crops Truck Crops Cotton Deciduous Fruits and Nuts Grapes Citrus Fruits TOTALS 200 UOO 1,300 3,000 3,000 3,800 3, BOO 1,600 2,100 5,600 13,900 100 500 3,500 7,900 1,800 5,000 15,600 36,000 100 1,200 tl,200 15,100 200 1,U00 3,200 2,000 7,700 13,300 17,700 17,700 17,700 9,800 9,800 9,000 U6,500 ii-6,500 it6,500 17,000 17,800 17,800 u,uoo u,uoo u,uoo 15,500 15,500 15,500 3,800 11,U00 43,500 92,400 115,500 115,500 115,500 TABLE 123 PROJECTED NET ACREAGES OF IRRIGATED CROPS IN THE AVENAL GAP TO PUMPING PLANT IN-III AREA OF KERN COUNTY Crop : I960 : 1970 : 1900 : 1990 : 2000 : 2010 : 2020 Alfalfa Hay 60,900 70,100 80,800 76,500 77,100 68,900 65,000 Alfalfa Seed 14,500 17,100 23,700 35,200 37,100 37,400 37,400 Irrigated Pasture 11,500 15,000 24,700 26,300 26,800 23,900 22,500 Miscellaneous Field Crops 48,300 6o,4oo 85,600 100,600 107,400 102,200 100,100 Hay and Grain 47,200 47,700 47,000 47,600 48,400 42,900 41,700 Truck Crops 5,100 8,700 15,500 25,700 26,800 26,700 26,700 Cotton 101,200 125,200 171,800 212,300 222,600 218,400 214,500 Potatoes 5,200 6,600 11,900 18,900 20,400 20,100 19,800 Sugar Beets 3,200 3,600 4,500 4,100 4,200 4,200 4,200 Rice 7,300 7,100 14,200 16,700 16,700 17,100 17,100 Deciduous Fruits and Nuts 1,200 4,200 11,100 l4,400 14,500 14,400 Grapes 3,200 3,900 5,300 6,400 6,600 6,500 6,400 Citrus Fruits 100 700 3,000 6,100 6,000 6,000 TOTALS 307,600 366,700 489,900 584,400 6l4,600 588,800 575,800 -340- TABLE 12U PROJECTED NET ACREAGES OF IRRIGATED CROPS IN THE PUMPING PLAOT IN -III TO PUMPING PLANT IN -IV AREA OF KERN COUNTY Crop : I960 : 1970 : 1980 : 1990 : 2000 : 2010 : 2020 Alfalfa Hay 1,500 Alfalfa Seed 1U,000 12,900 10,100 8,500 7,700 7,700 7,700 Field Crops 200 1,900 2,700 6,100 6,500 5,800 5,800 Hay and Grain 1^,600 Truck Crops 800 3,100 5,200 6,600 7,100 7,100 7,000 Cotton iij-,800 15,200 19,500 18, 300 18,700 18,300 18, 300 Potatoes 1,200 3,100 u,uoo 5,000 5,200 5,200 5,200 Sugar Beets 1,300 2,500 3,200 3,700 i^,000 i+,000 i+,000 Deciduous Fruits and Nuts 900 5,^+00 12,000 15,100 17,300 17,^00 Grapes 100 600 1,100 1,500 i,8oo 2,300 2,300 Citrus Fruit 1,900 6,100 11,700 12,800 li<-,500 14,500 TOTALS 38, 500 U2,100 57,700 73,i+00 78,900 82,200 82,200 TABLE 125 PROJECTED NET ACREAGES OF IRRIGATED CROPS IN THE PUMPING PLANT IN -IV TO PUMPING PLANT IN -VI AREA OF KERN COUMT Crop : I960 : 1970 : 1980 : 1990 : 2000 : 2010 : 2020 Alfalfa Seed i^OO 4oo 300 300 300 300 Miscellaneous Field Crops 1,000 600 300 100 Truck Crops 800 1,500 2,500 3,000 3,200 3,300 3,300 Cotton 3,200 3,200 1,500 100 •0 Potatoes 3,000 3,200 3,500 3,700 3,700 3,800 3,800 Deciduous Fruits and Nuts 1,800 4,uoo 7,400 7,800 8,000 8,000 Grapes 500 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,100 Citrus Fruit 200 2,000 5,700 6,300 6,600 6,600 TOTALS 8,000 11,400 15,400 21,200 22,300 23,100 23,100 -341- ATTACHMENT NO. 15 REFERENCES ■3h2- SELECTED BIBLIOGRAPHY OF PUBLICATIONS USED IN REFERENCE IN DEVELOPING URBAN AND AGRICULTURAL GROWTH PROJECTIONS Books Adams, R. L. "Farm Management Crop Man\ial", University of California Syllabus Series, University of California Press, 1953. Adams, R. L. "Farm Management Livestock Manual, Revised Edition", University of California Syllabus Series, University of California Press, 195^. Gordon, Margaret S. "Employment Expansion and Population Growth, the California Experience", University of California Press, 1957- Thompson, Warren S. "Growth and Changes in California's Population", Haynes Foundation, 1955 • I Publications of Federal, State and Local Governmental Agencies Basic data and methodology were developed from numerous reports, bulletins, and special reports from all levels of government. A few of the more important references are listed here. United States Department of Agricult\ire . "Agricultural Price and Cost Projections for Use in Making Benefit and Cost Analyses of Land and Water Resource Projects", Agricultural Research Seivice, September, 1957 • » United States Department of Agriculture. "Agricultural Statistics, 1956", Yearbook Statistical Committee, 1957- United States Department of Agriculture. "Current Developments in tne Farm Real Estate Market", Agricultural Research Service, Marcu, 195fc'« United States Department of Agriculture. "Yearbook of Agriculture", annual publication. United States Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Stanbery, Van Beiiren, "Better Population Forecasting for Areas and Communities", Domestic Commerce Series No. 32. Washington, 1952. United States Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. "Census of Population", decennial publication, various volioraes. -3i^3- United States Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. "Current Population Reports", approximately monthly publications. United States Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. "Statistical Abstract", annual publication, with supplements. United States Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. "United States Census of Agriculture, Volume I. 195^" • United States Department of Interior. Geological Survey, "Water Supply Papers". United States Department of Interior. Bureau of Reclamation, "Project Development Reports". United States Department of Interior. "Projected Agricultural Prices", Bureau of Reclamation, Division of Project Development, June, 1957« United States Department of Labor. "Handbook of Labor Statistics", Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1950. State of California. "Report of Assessed Valuations, Tax Rates and Indebtedness of the Counties of California", Office of the Controller, 1957. State of California, Department of Agriculture. "California Annual Livestock Report", Bureau of Agricultural Statistics, California Crop and Livestock Reporting Service (in cooperation with United States Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Marketing Service), January, 1958« State of California, Department of Agriculture. "California Field Crop Statistics, 19i+i+-1957", Bureau of Agricultural Statistics, California Crop and Livestock Reporting Service (in cooperation with United States Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Marketing Service), J\ine, 1958. State of California, Department of Agriculture. "California Fruit and Nut Crops 1909-1955", Bureau of Agricultural Statistics, California Crop and Livestock Reporting Service (in cooperation with United States Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Marketing Service), July, 1956. State of California, Department of Agriculture. "Prices Received by California Producers for Farm Commodities 1909-1953", Bureau of Agricultural Statistics, California Crop and Livestock Reporting Service (in cooperation with United States Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Marketing Service), July, 1953* State of California, Department of Agriculture. "Vegetable Crops in California", Bureau of Agricultural Statistics, California Crop and Livestock Reporting Service (in cooperation with United States Depart- ment of Agriculture, Agricultxiral Marketing Service), August, 1957 and August, 1958* ■3kk- p state of California, Department of Employment. "California Employment and Payrolls", Research and Statistics Section, annual and quarterly reports. State of California, Department of Finance. "California's Population in I 1957", Budget Division, July, 1957- State of California, Department of Industrial Relations. "Handbook of California Labor Statistics", Division of Labor Statistics and Research, annual publication. Los Angeles County Chamber of Commerce. "Population Projections to I98O, I 1^ Southern Counties", Research Department. Los Angeles County Chamber of Commerce. "Southern California Agriculture", yearly report of Agricultural Department, 1951 to 1957- Los Angeles County Regional Planning Commission. "Population and Dwelling Units", Population Research Section, quarterly report. Orange County Planning Commission. "Planning Developments: 1956-1957", annual report, September, 1957- San Diego County Water Authority. "Annual Report of Operations". Santa Barbara Chamber of Commerce. "Community Survey". City of Long Beach. "12th Annual Report", Long Beach Water Department, 195^-55. City of Pasadena. "Forty-third Annual Report", Pasadena Water Department, 1955-56. Metropolitan Water District of Southern California. "Report for the Fiscal Year, July 1, I956 to June 30, 1957". Publications of Various Research and Planning Organizations Basic information and methodology were taken from reports and bulletins of many research and planning institutions. A few of these are listed in the following tabulation. Blumenfeld, Hans. "Tidal Wave of Metropolitan Expansion", Article from Jo\irnal of the American Institute of Planners, Winter 195^' Daly, Rex F. "The Long -Run Demand for Farm Products", Agricultural Economic Research (United States Department of Agriculture), Volume VIII, Number 3, July, 1956. -3h3- Seciirity First National Bank of Los Angeles. "Monthly Summary of Business Conditions in Southern California" , Research Department. Stanford Research Institute. Nielson, Howard C. "Population Trends in the United States through 1975"; Menlo Park, California, August, 1955 • Stanford Research Institute. Brown, Bonnar, and Hansen, M. Janet. "Production Trends in the United States to 1975", Menlo Park, California, March, 1957- Stajiford Research Institute. "Planning Factors in an Industrial Program for Greater Bakersf ield" , Menlo Park, California, October, 1957- University of California. McCorkle, CO. "A Statistical Picture of California's Agriculture", California Agricultural Experiment Station Circular i+59, April, 1957- University of California. Rock, Robt. C. and Rizzi, A. D. "The Where and When of California Fruit and Nut Crops", California Agricultural Experiment Station Manual 20, December, 1955* University of California. Storie, R. E. and Weir, W. W. "Generalized Soil Map of California", California Agricultural Experiment Station Manual 6, 1953. University of California. "Custom Rates for Farm Operations", University of California Agricultural Extension Service, March, 1957' University of California. "Farm Enterprise Management Studies in 19^8; l-9'+9; I95O; Surveys and other Reports", University of California Agricultural Extension Service, December, 1950. University of California. "What is Water Worth?", Agricultural Extension Service, November, 1956. University of Pennsylvania. "Industrial Land and Facilities for Philadelphia -A Report to the Philadelphia City Planning Commission", Institute for Urban Studies, November, 1957- -3^6- / PLATE I STATE OF CALIFORNIA DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DISTRICT FEATHER RIVER AND DELTA DIVERSION PROJECTS INVESTIGATION OF ALT E R N AT I VE EDUCT SYSTEMS TO SERVE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LOCATION OF INVESTIGATIONAL AREA 1959 STATE OF CALIFORNIA DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DISTRICT FEATHER RIVER AND DELTA DIVERSION PROJECTS INVESTIGATION OF ALT E RN AT I VE AQUEDUCT SYSTEMS TO SERVE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LOCATION OF INVESTIGATIONAL AREA 1959 SW I ei ""11 SAN JOUUIN VALLt' CALIFORNIA A^EDUC - COASTAL AOUEDUCT ROUTE M ^ INDEX TO SUBUNITS } Ad.lo.i(o M 136 fala»ola>i>i 67 Son Marino 139 Comp P.ndl.lon Co-rt.o U W«l Boiln 130 Con>p Elliol So« Juan 69 Sonfo MooKo 131 Anio B ^010 70 •••wlr Hllli 113 9 loffont. 133 I.««„lo 10 C...to« 73 leno >*0(h 134 Voil Pmo lobtoi 73 Conplon 135 13 T.«.pl.>«. Cvn'tol Bai'n 13« Winch*ri» SoulK 13 7i Pt™™ Voll^ 137 r«,.«,olCony«) 14 MofTotoy 76 Son Cobnai Valirr 131 Lok> Ek.na>* 15 Camp Son lu .ObHpo 77 7„ll«rten 139 Coiono Ifi Dtoblo 78 140 Jurvpo 17 So« Ivi. 06/ e* Sonlo Afle 141 Rinnldi )B Piwt-o koch •0 O'Ong* County M.W,D. 14} Woodtnil Huoino SI CooiiolMWD 143 lokoMolha-t 10 Cuyomo-Sonlu«Obl.po n loguna Canyon 144 11 Nlpomo 63 Son Juan Coplitrono 145 (■••'!• Vall*r » Soma Moilo VolbrWCD »4 Son Joonre 11 Oriutt 15 tuino Colo-ado 147 loUiln 34 Su*r BA Co'Ubod SInon Poak 3i S>I4UM V SanloAno 3« u Follbrooi 150 5 o1 Son I>;.oo 154 San T-O0I.O J1 Son'a Vn*i 93 OiotMWO 155 idrii-iid 33 Cathu-no ImptLOl I5« Mo'wd* 158 31 CDltlU Po-o,MWO 159 Onto'ie 3A SoniD eotbo 98 datnbo-MWD 160 37 99 R'nion Dot CMoblo 161 Colion 38 100 Son D.>guiio 1 0. 163 Radio ndi 3fl Co'pinxiio 101 Soma f* 1*3 40 ■a lorbaro toi Voll.,C.ni..MWO 164 CWno Hill. 103 165 Son Anionio 43 V«n.„,o !).■ WWD 104 ■oncKo ei Caron 166 t-tUo' 43 UnllKl Wolw C» 0a> 105 Pou*o Volln 167 WD 106 NortK o' lon» f» I6« W»ghr.eod 4i Topotopo 107 tai< of Son Oioguiio 169 Pol- iprmai 4A Vilph*.. Me« 108 Nh' 0»aniKl* 170 0*M>i Mo> Sp"ng. 47 Sorxo Svv»» 109 Seuih ol loU Had9*> Pomon o* Coal hallo Vallay 48 Mal.bu 110 fail at D.I Mo' 173 CeocKallo Voiln C WO 49 McKiHoch Lo*<> Pa^fna Volloy » AnLlnp. Plain 113 Jomul 173 Mojo.. 31 SiKllllOpIl W SD 111 lOtolond 174 51 tuino Vltlo «S0 Polrwo 175 Ed.a'di *l< fo-ta Sou 53 RowloURio havoWSD 111 Ww.no 176 Rand J7 Mo'KOpa WStala' tido* M 130 SanVKanta 131 SowA SvlNwIond 173 Cuatllo IM (inlaioch l»c*f>* VoUay Cuddaboct l^ X '] \ '<-.^^.>-- .■'\/- >' \ y^ \ X,t y^ \ ^ ^y ' \ **" " • ^ \-St^^ ^■ y /~^ c" "v^ \ /■ >_ j^^'^^A vn ^ \ / \ « \ \ :^ { ' /* -J^l ^ >-C:=^-^ \ A 1^ ^ 5 ■/K' J^ . ' ' '^ V^. \[ 7**^^Vjfc 2»V^(^ -^""V ^Sr- ' ' '>i,.A< ^'^^^^'^^^^'''^VcS^^^;^^^^^ ^^'^^^^^i>--^ S. •"■"r^ V '"*•** »••• , '" /3 Lw; ry"^fev'* ^ ^J^^ a T''^^y\^~^'_,/^^\^6^^ iV'^al^S^^ '^ ^ ' *^^^V^ fl^V . V'L»*''A. ^-^ DCP*i»TM«Nt o' wATtn niaouncci ^^^-r"''''ii,^-^\5^'' 'XA j' >5^ ■% ' vC^-'X * ^ \ " ^ T/ " Ji^ ^ ^^S-^C/^' ( -\-X\' " ATM€« RIVER AMOOtLT* " \i >^^- li^^^" DIVERSION PROJICTS '^ / AOOEDUCTSrSTE* I06TI0H OF ALTERFlATIVt SrOSERVE SOUTHERN CALIfORNIA \0^->^'<' C € A N \J~^^^>^V BOUNDARIES OF 1 = ' ^/-^ SERVICE AREAS AND SUBUNfTS | T) NDEX TO SHEETS LEGEND BB PRESENT URBan ««(A (JEt TEXTl k^ri PNE3ENT lltKISATCD AREA IlEE TCXTI cc:a MILITAXY RESERVATION 1 1 )>RESENT OR POTENTIAL KECREATIONAL AREA r-1 AREA CLASSiriEO AS IRmOABLE OR HABITABLE ^ ESTtUATCD CKPAtlSION OF URBAN AREA. 1936 TMftOUGM I960 ^ ESTIMATED EKRAMSIOM Of IRRIOATEO AREA, 19 58 THROUGH 1980 snES»NT UMBAN AttCA {SEE TEXT) PRESENT IflRigkTCt) ARCA [SEE TEXT! MILITANT RESCNVATIOM I I meSENT ON POTENTIAL RECREATIONAL AREA [ } ARCA CLAiaiFlEO Al tttRICABLC OR HABITABLE ^^^^ If TIMATiO IKPANSION OF URBAN AREA. ISSB THROUGH 1980 I ) tSTIMATf ENPANKOH Of IRRlOATEO AREA, 1998 TmROUGm 1960 ' Tulare '' Lake^ DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES SOUTHERN CftLiFORNlA DISTRICT SCALE OF MILES PRESENT AND POTENTIAL LAND USE ESTIMATED EXPANSION OF URBAN AND IRRIGATED LANDS, I958THR0UGH 1980 I SHEET 2 OF 8 SHEETS !-T^ NOE X TO SHEETS LEGEND ^ PBEStNT unOAH AACA !SE£ TEKTI ^^H PSeStHT m(»(g»TCD ARE* ISEE TEXT) fnn MILITARY RESCnvAriON 1 1 PRCSEMT OK POTENTIAL RECftEATIONAL ABEA 1 1 A*t« CLASIinCD A9 IRftlOAflLE OR NABITAILE ^ lariUATCO ERPANSION OF URBAN AREA, 1991 THROUOH I9e0 ESTIWATIO EXPANltON OF IRRlOATED AREA. l9Se -THROUGH tSBO DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES SOUtMEHN CALIPOHNIA DISTRICT PRESENT AND POTENTIAL LAND USE ANO ESTIMATED EXPANSION OF URBAN AND IRRIGATED LANDS. 1958 THROUGH 1980 SHEET 2 OF 8 SHEETS NDEX TO SHEETS L E G E fJ ^ >>«£SLr.T uBSar. APEA (Stt TEXT! ^H PRESENT IBBi6iiTtO«R£A (SEE TE»T) g^3 MILITART RESEftVATION 1 1 PftESENT OR POTENTIAL HECHEilTlONaL AREA MS ftHEft CLASSIFIED AS IHfllGfleLE OR HABtTAaUE ^ ESTIMATEO EKPANSION OF URBAN AREA. I99« THROUGH 1900 ' — ' eSTlMATEO EXPANSION OF IRRIGATED AREA. I9SB THHOUSM 1980 SHEET30F8 SHEETS "^.^ INDEX TO SHEETS LEGEND IZZ! 'atSENT uOeiH AREl (SEE TEXT I PftESCHT iRRlOkTED «NC« tSEC TElt | WILlTADV RESERVATION PRCSENT OR POTENTIAL RECREATIONAL AREA AREA CLASSIFIED AS IRRICAeLE OR NAeiTABLC ESTIMATED EXPANSION OF URBAN ARE A , i9Se THROuOm 1980 EsnwATeO EXPANSION OF IRRifiATED AREA, I9S8 ThAOUCH I960 «>« i C A- N iTxit 0' e«.'»on«i» DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES SOJtHERN CALI'OONIA OlSTRlCT PRESENT AND POTENTIAL LAND USE AND ESTIMATED EXPANSION OF URBAN AND IRRIGATED LANDS. 1958 THKOUUM 1980 SHEET 4 OF a SHEETS NOE X TO SHEETS LEGEND ^ PRESENT (jneAN AREA [SEt TEMTl HH PRESENT IHBiOflTCO AREA (SEE TE HT ) KZ3 MILITARr RESERVATION ^■1 PRESENT OR POTENTIAL RECREATIONAL AREA 1 i AREA CLASSIf lED A» (RRICASLE OR MABITABtE ^^ ESTIMATED EXPANSION OF URSAN ARC*. I98« TMROUOM 1980 ESTiyATEO EXPANSION OF IRRIGATED AREA, 1938 THROUGH I9B0 DCPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DISTRICT I960 5CaL£ or Mii.ES PRESENT AND POTENTIAL LAND USE AND ESTIMATED EXPANSION OF URBAN AND IRRIGATED LANDS. 1958 THROUGH 1980 SHEET 50F8 SHEETS NOEX TO SHEETS L E G e N PBfSrNT UflBAN AREA