£@$> Columbia itlnilifrsitp mrhflftipofJlrtuPorb LI BRARY the seligman library of economics PURCHASED BY THE UNIVERSITY 1929 PROTECTION -IN- VICTORIA, An Inquiry into the Influence of Pro¬ tection on the Social & Economic Condition of the People. By MAX HI^SCH (Melbourne'. Melbourne : Echo Publishing Company, Limited, Australian Buildings, Elizabeth St., And 14 and 16 Best Street, North Fitzroy. 1861 . PROTECTION — w — VICTORIA, An Inquiry into the Influence of Pro¬ tection on the Soeial & Eeonomie Condition of the People. By ]VIAX HI^SCH (Melbourne . Melboukne : Echo Publishing Company, Limited, Australian Buildings, Elizabeth St., And 14 and 16 Best Street, North Fitzroy. 1391. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. K R R A T A On page i 8 , in table at top of page, read value of imports per head of population in N. S. W. £20 iis. 2d., instead of £'2> i is. 2d. PROTECTION IN VICTORIA. '7THE natural system of trade is free trade, the unrestricted exchange of commodities against each other. That any restriction of, or interference with, trade, within a political entity, reduces the production of wealth and makes its distribution more inequitable, has been fully recognised, and the customs houses which formerly separated shire from shire, county from county, and province from province, have consequently been removed in all civilised countries. The natural conclusion that customs houses erected on the political frontiers, which separate colony from colony and state from state, must have a similar result, has, however, not yet found similar acceptance. On the contrary, it is largely held that the restrictions which they impose upon trade, result in a greater production and more equitable distribution of wealth. This is held to be especially true of frontier duties levied, not for the purpose of yielding a revenue, but for that of restricting or preventing the importation of goods which are or can be made within the country ; so called protective duties. This is the contention which I wish to investigate in the light of facts, which a comparison of the economic history of a partly free trade colony with that of a partly protective colony furnishes. In order to estimate thoroughly the influence which any particular policy exercises upon the fortunes of a community, it is necessary to justly appreciate the effects of other causes upon the welfare of that community. Thus to correctly demonstrate the result of the policy of protection in Victoria, it would be necessary first to realise the result of every other cause which has influenced the moral and material development of its people. Advances in arts and sciences, resulting in the lowering of cost of production without and within the colony ; increase of population resulting in greater productive power ; alterations in the land laws, resulting in a better use of land, and a consequent increase in the production of wealth ; advances in the methods of government ; improvement of laws and in the education of the people; the rise and power of Trades Unionism, resulting in an alteration of the distribution of wealth ; all these causes must have had considerable influence in bringing about the present condition of the colony. For the purpose of our inquiry, their results should be rully appreciated, and should not be confused i with those brought about by protection. Yet it is manifestly impossible to do so adequately, and this fact materially assists the advocates of protection. For it is the benefits which result from 4 PROTECTION IN VICTORIA. these causes, claimed by protectionists as resulting from their policy, which confound the public judgment and conceal the pernicious, influence protection has really had. The effect of the protective policy on the development of the country, cannot therefore be deduced from a comparison of its present, with its ante-protective state. But, when starting from an axiom, which is as certain as that other axiom, that the shortest distance between two points is a straight line ; from the axiom that man seeks the satisfaction of his desires with the least exertion, we arrive, by deductive methods, at the conclusion that protection cannot result in any of the advantages claimed for it ; when, on the other hand, we find that there is no evidence whatever as to its actually having produced any advantages, even when the effect of the other causes which I have mentioned is ignored ; we can then confidently assert, that protection has failed to confer those benefits upon the country which were expected from its adoption,* and which are now claimed as a justification for its perpetuation and extension. We can then even go farther, and are irresistibly led to expect that so far from having acted beneficially, protection has impeded the advantageous action of the causes enumerated, and that without the dead weight of protection, the action of these forces would have resulted in much larger benefits to the country than they have as yet conferred. But in Victoria there is fortunately a method afforded us by which an approximately correct estimate of the influence of protection can be arrived at, namely, by a comparison of its past and present, condition with the past and present condition of New South Wales. Both are young countries, inhabited by a population of substantially the same origin. They have substantially the same institutions, forms, and methods of government, and capital and labor oscillate as freely between them as between one English county and another. The only differences between them, except the difference in their fiscal policy, are the start in wealth and population, which the richness of its alluvial goldfields gave Victoria in the middle of the century ; the more compact form of the territory of Victoria, and the consequent greater density of its population ; the more bracing climate of that colony, resulting in a more energetic character in its inhabitants ; the greater fertility of soil in many of its parts, and the more general and more copious rainfall, exempting, it from those destructive droughts and floods which are of regular recurrence in New South Wales. It is often pleaded that these advantages are mdre than* counterbalanced by the advantages which the manufacturingindustries- of New South Wales derive from cheaper coal. It is assumed that coal must be cheaper in New South Wales than in Victoria, because- the supply for both colonies is derived from mines situated in the former colony. This, however, is a popular error;-for the manufacturing industries of New South Wales are mostly carried on in Sydney, the same as those of Victoria are mostly carried on in Melbourne, and as the Lost of ocean carriage from the mines to* PKuTiicTION IN VICTORIA. Sydney differs little from that to Melbourne, the cost of coal in both cities is almost identical. The economic advantages in favor of Victoria are, therefore, of sufficient importance to lead one to suspect that. Victoria must have largely outstripped the elder colony in the production of wealth, even if its fiscal policy had remained the same. But when to these natural advantages are added the artificial benefits claimed for a protective policy, then it must surely be admitted that Victoria should have largely outstripped New South Wales, and that the distribution of wealth should be much more equitable in the former colony than in the latter. Furthermore, it must be admitted, that if this is not so, if there is not a greater production nor a more equitable distribution of wealth in Victoria, that then we are justified in asserting that the protective policy has retarded instead of assisting the development of the natural advantages possessed by the colony, and has failed to more equitably distribute the wealth derived from them. To come to more detailed statements, it is claimed for protection in Victoria, and by Victorian Protectionists only, a claim unsupported by any of the economists who advocate that policy, that customs duties levied for the purpose of protection do not increase, but rather lower the price of the commodities upon which they are levied. A comparison of the prices ruling in Sydney, with those ruling in Melbourne for some such commodities which can be recognised as of the same quality will establish the incorrectness of this claim. A comparison of the value of imports per head of the population in 1866, when protection was introduced, with that of imports during late years, as well as a comparison of value of imports into New South Wales with those into Victoria, will dispose of the claim that protection, as far as it has gone, has reduced imports and prevented the competition of foreign goods with Victorian goods. A comparison of the value of imports of commodities produced by the principal manufacturing industries, and a comparison of the number of hands employed, will further establish the fact that these industries are receding instead of advancing under the influence of increased protection. The democratic character of the constitution of Victoria has led protectionists to claim that the levying of customs duties on a few commodities must lead to an increase of the wages of labor in the production of all commodities. A comparison of wages in New South Wales, with those ruling in Victoria, and a comparison of present wages in the latter colony with those of a former period, will also test the correctness of this contention. And I may here be permitted to say that I hold this to be the crucial test. Protection, I hold to reduce the production of wealth, and to reduce the purchasing power of wages. Nevertheless, if it could be shown that protection did increase wages more than it lowers their purchasing power, that under a protectionist regime there is a real increase in the share of wealth which goes to labour, I, as well as almost every other member of this community, would advocate protection. But, if this cannot be shown, if the only result of protection is a decrease in the amount of wealth produced, and a decrease in the purchasing power PROTECTION IN VICTORIA. 6 of wages, without a corresponding increase in the amount of wages, then I hold protection to be entirely evil in its results. There are, however, other subjects closely connected with those already stated, and illustrating the general well-being of the population in both these colonies which cannot well be overlooked in such an inquiry. With these I also propose to deal after having devoted a few sentences to an illustration of the general influence of customs duties on foreign trade. The object of international trade is the exchange of commodities, in the production of which a country possesses a comparative advantage, with other commodities, in the production of which it either possesses less of an advantage over another country, or is at a positive disadvantage with regard to another country ; to exchange a commodity produced at the least cost, against other commodities, which, within the country, could only be produced at a comparatively higher cost. International trade, therefore, enables a country to devote such of its productive powers as are not required for purely local purposes, to the production of commodities which give most profit, and thereby to acquire in exchange with the same profit commodities, which, within the country, can only be produced with less profit.* The object of protection, on the other hand, is to contrive that all commodities, or as many commodities as possible, should be produced within the country, regardless of the question whether the production of that commodity within the country entails a greater expenditure of wealth than its acquisition by exchange ; regardless of the question whether the country possesses any comparative aJvantage or disadvantage in the production of any of these commodities as to each other, or as compared with foreign countries. The contention is, that if any one in Victoria produces grain, and exchanges it with England for furniture, that then the price of the furniture is not increased to him by a customs duty levied thereon, that he has not to give more grain for the furniture than before. In spite of a customs house duty of 38^ per cent., furniture is still imported into Victoria, a clear proof that, in spite of that duty, it is still more profitable to exchange wheat or some other produce for furniture, than to make such furniture in Victoria. The cost to me of any furniture for which I exchange wheat, is determined by the cost of production of that wheat. If ^ 90 is the cost of producing wheat sufficient to procure furniture, the cost of producing which, in the colony, is .^120, then the cost of that furniture is £qo ; with an expenditure of £90 the country has received furniture worth £120. The country has therefore been enriched by this exchange to the amount of £$o. If now the state demands from me on the arrival of that furniture, a fine of 30 per cent. I must export more wheat in order to cover this fine, viz. 30 per cent, of £^o worth of wheat, or another • By profit I do not understand merely the gain of the employer, or of the employci and the capitalist, but the difference of value between the wealth consumed and the wealth produced for and by any given act of production. When production is profitable, the value of the article produced always exceeds the value of the articles consumed in the process. The latter is composed of the value of all the material converted, of the wear and tear of machines and instruments, of the food and wear and tear of clothes of the workmen The profit here meant becomes divisible between the three factors in production: land which receives rent, capital which receives interest, and labour which receives wages. PROTECTION IN VICTORIA. 7 ^*27 worth of wheat. For this additional amount of wheat, I receive no other return than permission to use the furniture. The furniture now costs ^90 + ^'27 worth of wheat or ^117 in all. Still it is more profitable to expend ^"117 worth of wheat in the purchase of English furniture, than ^120 in making the same furniture in the colony. But if the state now raises the duty to 40 per cent., 1 must export as much wheat as will cost ^*126 to raise, for furniture which it will cost £ 120 to make within the colony. It now pays better to make furniture than to grow wheat, but with this difference. The growing of the ^'90 worth of wheat gave to me and to the country an extra profit of ^*30 in foreign exchange. It would exchange at that profit with foreign furniture or other commodities. But the furniture which is made in the colony under these conditions costs ^'120 to make ; instead of ^90 worth of wealth expended in procuring ^'120 worth of wealth, ^120 of wealth expended, procures no more than ^*120 of wealth. The community, as well as myself, have lost a profit of ^30 by forcing me to make furniture, or get somebody else to make it, instead of myself or somebody else producing wheat. The rate of exchange of furniture has been raised ; the rate of exchange of wheat has been lowered. The making of furniture has not been made more profitable, the same amount of wealth is still consumed in making it; but the growing of wheat has been made less profitable, it exchanges for less of furniture than before the imposition of a duty on furniture. What is true of the exchange of wheat against furniture, is equally true of the exchange of any other two commodities. Impose an import duty on any of them, and not only do you increase the cost at which the individual can procure that commodity, and thereby reduce the value of the commodity which he offers in exchange, be it wheat or gold (wages) ; but you also reduce the wealth of the community, by diverting production from more profitable to less profitable industries. In no case can you possibly increase the profit which can be derived from any industry. You produce less wealth at the same cost, or you produce the same amount of wealth at greater cost ; you always reduce profit, that is the difference between the value of wealth consumed in the production of other wealth and the value of the wealth so produced. In any given country, the industries which can be protected are of comparatively small importance, while those which cannot be carried on without protection are of still less importance. Moreover, the fact that any industry stands in need of protection proves that the conditions under which that industry must be carried on, are more onerous, and less capable of admitting of a profit, than the conditions under which other industries can be carried on in the same country. By exchanging the product of the latter, the more profitable industries against commodities which form the produce of industries similarly situated in foreign countries, the latter commodities are obtained at a similar rate of profit as the former ; profits are levelled up. But by compelling one set of producers, working under more profitable conditions, to exchange their produce against that of producers working in the same JJ PROTECTION IN VICTORIA. country under less profitable conditions, the entire rate of profit is lowered ; profits are levelled down. The same consumption of wealth results in a smaller production of wealth under the latter, than under the former condition ; the wealth of the community is increased at a much smaller rate. The claim that a customs house fine on imported goods will enable all goods to be produced within any country at the same cost as in the country most suitable to their production is evidently absurd. Yet it is the logical outcome of the claim that duties neither increase the price of imported goods on which they are levied, nor that of home-made goods, the production of which they are intended to foster. Every protectionist must recognise that there are commodities which cannot be so produced under any amount of protection. They recognise that pineapples cannot be produced as cheaply in England or say Russia as in Queensland, that tea and coffee, cotton and bananas, cannot be produced as cheaply in Victoria as in tropical and semi-tropical countries. But they maintain that there are commodities, such as all or nearly all the products of secondary industries, i. e ., manufactures, which can be made as cheaply in one country as in another, if the state will only help the manufacturer over the first difficulty of starting the industry. This was the claim on which protection took its stand when the policy was first introduced into the United States, and subsequently when it was aaopted in Victoria. In the United States this iiiitiary stage has lasted for nearly a century, in Victoria, about 25 years. In both countries has it been found, that not cnly must the time of protected infancy be extended indefinitely, but that the customs duties must also be raised from time to time. The protected industries instead of lequiring less protection as they grow older, instead of growing stronger and less needful of protection, seem to grow weaker with the advance of time, for they require more and more protection. In the United States, protective duties have been raised from ten per cent, to as much as 250 per cent., and in Victoria from 10 per cent, to 38^ per cent., and in some instances to as much as 100 percent. Nevertheless, not one single industry can be pointed to in either country whi:h has passed out of the nursing stage, not even one which requires less nursing. They all want more protection still. Protectionists themselves have therefore practically abandoned this theory of fostering youthful industries into self-reliance and self-support; for they cannot point to a single industry in which it has succeeded. Yet looking at the conditions, for instance, which govern the iron and steel industry of a country, it cannot be doubtful, that, without protection, that industry would not only be self-supporting and prosperous in Pennsylvania, but that the natural conditions for the production of these commodities are so favorable in that state, that under a system of free trade it could compete in the English market itself, could produce iron and steel cheaper than either Sheffield, Glasgow, or Middlesborough. If, furthermore, the commodities which are exported from the United States are examined, it will at once appear, that that country PROTECTION IN VICTORIA. 9 lias made no progress towards enabling its industries to compete with foreign industries. The United States now count over sixty million inhabitants, as against three millions when protection was adopted, yet its exports are still of substantially the same character. In 1887 out of a total export of seven hundred million dollars, over five hundred and ten million dollars are represented by breadstuff?, raw cotton, provisions and oil, all raw material, and the produce of industries which cannot be protected. Moreover, from 1878 to 1887, an exceptionally prosperous period, exports were increased by eight million dollars only, or a little over one per cent, in ten years, in spite of a large increase of population. I have already stated that it is not the absolute, but the comparative cost of production which determines the exchange of commodities between different countries. The claim that a protective policy enables a given country to produce certain commodities as cheaply as the country situated most favourably for their production, even if it could be proved, would therefore be insufficient as a justification of that policy. As long as it is not shown that protection enables a given country to produce all commodities at least cost and at an equal profit, that policy must entail loss. It would still result in the production of commodities which give less profit, in the place of those giving most profit. It is only when a country can gain nothing by exchange, that it will cease to exchange; as long as there are commodities of equal value, some of which can be produced at less cost than others in a given country, it will be more profitable to that country to acquire the others by exchange than by direct production, even if itself could produce these commodities at less cost than the country from which it acquires them. The measure of the cost of imported goods is not their cost at the place of production, but the cost of the goods which have been given for them in exchange. The circumstances which enables one country to produce any given commodity at less cost than another, are the most varied and perplexing Apart from geographic and climatic conditions and the more or less favourable occurrence of minerals, there enter into it almost all the phenomena which distinguish one nation from another, which distinguish a young country from an old country. But a comparatively high rate of wages is one of the most important, if not the most important factor in reducing cost of production, not only by forcing into use labour-saving machinery, which at a lower rate of wages could not permit of a saving in wages, but also by the greater intelligence and vigour of the workmen, which high wages produce. Consequently, we find a nation’s power in the markets of the world to be somewhat in accordance with the rate of wages to which its workers are accustomed. China. India, Mexico, export no manufactures, Russia least of all European nations, Italy and Spain rank next. Austria stands by itself, Germany and France follow, and Great Britain stands at the apex of industrial power. If the “ pauper labour ” argument were true, if it were true that every increase of wages causes a corresponding increase in the cost of Jiroduction, nothing would be more foolish, than for workers to trv 10 PROTECTION IN' VICTORIA. to get an increase of wages. For high wages clearly can buy no more of correspondingly dear goods, than low wages can of corre¬ spondingly cheap goods, and it would not matter the least to wage-earners, whether their wages were high or low. The condition ranking next in importance is density of population, enabling production to be carried on on a larger scale ; permitting of the utmost subdivision of labour ; allowing of the establishment of subsidiary industries, providing either the machines and tools or using up the bye-products of other industries. Whether protection does result in an increase in the rate of effective wages, will form the subject of the next and some subsequent inquiries. That it does not produce such an increase of population as would secure to a young country some of the advantages of older and more densely populated countries, is obvious. The history of Victoria proves that on the contrary it retards increase of population ; that it drives population away. In 1866, the year when protection was introduced, the population of Victoria amounted 10636,982 human beings, as against 431,412 in New South Wales; in 1881 the relative numbers were 862,346 and 751,468 ; but in 1889 while the number in New South Wales had increased to 1,122,200, they were 1,118,077 only for Victoria. During this period the increase had only been 75 per cent, for the protected colony, while it was 140 per cent, for the free-trade colony. The increase from 1871 to 1881 was 30.91 per cent, in New South Wales, and only 18 per cent, in Victoria; and from 1881 to 1888 it was 44.43 per cent, in the former and only 26.50 per cent, in the latter colony. While in the former decade the difference in the rate of increase was 12.91 per cent., it was 18.43 per cent, during the latter period, thus proving that the increase of population is retarded pari passu with the increase in protective duties. The circumstance that, next to Hobart, Melbourne has the greatest proportion of females to males of any Australian city, points to the fact that this comparatively slow increase of population is due to the same cause which has been ascertained to produce the same result in Hobart, namely, the emigration of native-born males. The proportions of females to males are: Hobart 107.02, Melbourne 103.38, Sydney 96.80. Furthermore the proportion of females in the total population was in 1881 : 47.5 per cent, in Victoria, and 45.8 per cent, in New South Wales ; in 1888 46.6 per cent, in Victoria, and only 44.3 per cent, in New South Wales ; in 1891 it was 47.8 per cent, for the former and 46.5 for the latter colony, showing again that protection has led to a loss of male inhabitants. The following two tables show the greater attraction which New South Wales exercises on men in the prime of life, and the loss sustained by Victoria through the emigration of this economically most valuable section of its population :— MALES IN 1881. VICTORIA. NEW SOUTH WALES. Up to 25 years old ...257,067 ... 56.86 per cent. I 229,342 ... 55.78 per cent. From 25 to 45 years old 99,497 ... 22 „ 115,991 ... 28.22 „ 45 years old and over 95,579 ... 21.14 ., | 65,816 ... 16 „ 453,143 411,14c, PROTECTION IN VICTORIA. I I MALES BETWEEN THE AGES OF 25 AND 45 YEARS. VICTORIA. NEW SOUTH WALES. 83.275=10-7 per cent. 113> t .«9 I = I 5-4 1871, 135,413=18.1 per cent. 1881, 99.497=11.5 „ Loss, 35.916. Gain, 32,716. In the first of these tables the percentages are those of the male population ; in the latter the percentage of the males in their prime to the total population is given. The first table shows the result, viz., the greater percentage of men in the prime of life in New South Wales; the latter table shows that the shifting took place in the years during which Victoria enjoyed protection, that on account or in spite of protection, young men are avoiding and leaving the protected colony, in which, if protectionists are right, they ought to find, it easiest to make a living, are flocking into the colony, in which they ought to find it most difficult to make a living. In estimating the significance of these figures, it must not be forgotten, that, according to the general increase of population, we ought to have had in 1881, 20,987 more males of from 25 to 45 years than in 1871, making our total loss of men in the prime of life 56,903, surely a most disastrous retrogression in one decade. There is, however, nothing new in these tables; they are merely a confirmation of what has long been generally known. Every traveller remarks upon the number of Victorians engaged in trade and agriculture in New South Wales and other colonies, and the paucity of natives or former inhabitants of New South Wales similarly engaged in Victoria. A more significant fact by which to measure the result of protection can scarcely be asked for ; for if the protective policy had added to the natural advantages of Victoria, then surely Victoria would have powerfully attracted the workers in the prime of life from every colony and even from over sea. But the opposite is the case ; the strong, the hopeful, and energetic leave the protected colony, flock into the free-trade colony instead, proving conclusively that there it is easiest for them to gain a comfortable livelihood. One of the most firmly established facts in the science of statistics is, that under present social and economic conditions, the numbers of marriages and births rise and fall with any rise or fall in the nation’s prosperity; that steady employment at decent wages especially has the invariable result of increasing the number of marriages and births. And it must be held as similarly true, that in two nations of similar origin, the members of which are constantly intermingling, the social and political institutions of which are the same, the more prosperous nation, the one in which employment is more constant and effective wages higher, will show the greater number of marriages and births ; and vice versa where the number of these are greater, there wages are higher and employment more constant. Under the application of this unerring test also, New South Wales holds her superiority over Victoria, as the following table shows, a superiority not founded on natural advantages, but resulting from the fiscal policy we have adopted :— I2 protection in victoria. No. OF MARRIAGES AND BIRTHS PER iooo OK MEAN POPULATION. MARK JACKS. Victoria. N. S. Wales. Victoria. N. S. Wales. 1866 6.76 8.26 1866 39-76 4045 1867 , 6.79 7.84 1867 ! 39-75 41 -' 4 I86S 7.08 8.23 1868 41.08 40.72 1869 6.89 8.04 1869 37-89 40.74 1870 6.63 7.85 1870 : 38.07 40.09 1871 6-37 7.78 1871 ' 37.15 39-63 1872 6.36 7.46 1872 36.33 38.46 1873 6.50 8.05 1873 ! 3671 39-38 1874 1 6.33 7.70 1874 ; 3446 3 "- 3 ° 3S75 j 6-33 7.88 1875 i 33-94 38.53 1876 6.21 7.65 1876 ! 33 . 6 i 38.56 1877 1 6.31 7-94 1877 ; 32.17 37-92 1878 1 6.20 8.0S 1878 32 . 3 r > 3L30 1879 5 - 9 8 7.80 1879 I 32.18 38.99 1880 6.22 7.68 1880 i 30.75 38.80 1881 6.79 8.27 188 r 31-24 38.18 1882 7.09 1 8.74 18S2 30.05 37-37 1883 743 8.83 1883 30.2 3 3749 IS34 7-73 8.49 1884 30.89 38.54 -1885 7.72 8.18 1885 31.37 37.64 ISS6 7.84 7-97 1886 31-23 37-03 1887 7.62 7.42 1887 32.40 3642 1388 8.42 7-37 1888 32 49 36 20 1889 8.22 6.71 1889 32.52 33-24 Mean per Year. 6.90 8.00 j 34-54 38.90 The most remarkable lesson which this table conveys, apart from the conclusive proof of the greater well-being of the bulk of the people of New South Wales than that of Victoria which it affords, lies in the fact, that during the years 1887, 1888. and 1889, the years during which occurred the preparation and culmination of the boom period of Melbourne, the proportion of marriages in Victoria exceeds that of marriages in New South Wales, whilethe proportion of births, while increasing, does not yet come up to those in New South Wales even in the last year. It shows that this period of plentiful employment immediately drew population from New South Wales to Victoria; but a population of unmarried people mostly, just what was to be expected, and a further proof, if any were required, that the previous exodus of men in the prime of life was due to the obverse cause, want of employment. The excess of births over deaths tells the same tale ; its mean for the ten years from 1878 to 1887 being ii2for Victoria and 148 for New South Wales per 1000 of population, showing the more rapid increase of the native-born population of the latter colony. From whichever standpoint the movements of population and the vital statistics of the two colonies are considered, it is clear that the edect of protection has been, to retard the increase of population which must have taken place, had the fiscal policy of the colony been PROTECTION IN VICTORIA. 13 different. But there remains to be disproved one popular prejudice. It is often asserted by protectionist orators, that the greater increase of population in New South Wales is due to the fact, that that colony encourages immigration by affording state assistance to intending immigrants. I have already shown that a considerable part of that greater increase is due to a greater percentage of births over deaths, that is, a more rapid increase of the native born population of that colony than of that of Victoria. But even in that part of the greater increase, which is due to immigration, state assisted immigration plays a small part only, as the following table will show :— EXCESS OF IMMIGRANTS OVER EMIGRANTS BY SEA. State Assisted Victoria. N. S. Wales. Excess of N. S. Wa'es. Immigrants N. S. Wa' 1881 7,322 22.8q8 1 15,576 2,577 18.82 10,880 I9-3I7 8,437 3,233 1883 11.030 32,810 21,780 8,369 1884 14.141 32,232 j 18,091 7,563 1885 14,982 39.6*3 24,701 5,554 1886 25.302 28,492 3P90 4,081 1887 22,026 23,316 1,490 1,362 Total 105,683 198,948 93,265 32,744 In these 7 years the number of state-assisted immigrants amounted therefore to 16.4 per cent, only of the total number of immigrants in excess of emigrants by sea, and to one third onlv of the excess of such immigrants in New South Wales over those in Victoria. Of the number which arrived overland and of which no record is kept, none were state assisted, and it must moreover not be forgotten, that while 198,94s is the difference between immigrants and emigrants only, 32,744 is the total number of state-assisted immigrants, many of which either found their way into other colonies afterwards or would have done so. had these offered better prospects than New South Wales. Moreover, the total number of state-assisted immigrants amounted to 59,000 only during the whole period from 1866 to 1889, as against a total increase of population of 690,788 souls, or only 8.5 per cent, of the whole increase. It is not infrequently asserted that the more rapid increase of the population of New South Wales is due to her larger territory. It is needless to say that her territory was just as much larger in 1866 when her population was only two thirds the number of ours, than it is to-day. This reply would be insufficient if Victoria already- possessed as great a population as could use her natural advantages in the most profitable manner ; for in that case every new comer would be a burden. But when millions of acres of land are as yet unused, and when many more millions are as yet insufficiently used ; when it is seen that Victoria might maintain ten and twenty times her present population in wealth and comfort, that answer is sufficient to expose the fallacy of the territory argument. Notwithstanding the reduction in the production of wealth resulting from the artificial creation of industries which work under 14 PROTECTION IN VICTORIA. more onerous conditions than those natural to the country in its existing state of development, the advocates of protection claim, that the rate of wages in all industries, whether capable of protection or not, is increased through this artificial transference of labour and capital from more profitable to less profitable industries. The reasoning usually employed to sustain this assertion reads somewhat like this. By levying an import duty on any commodity, you enable the production of that commodity to be carried on at a profit, or at a greater profit than before. The profit being greater, higher wages can be paid. The higher wages paid in these industries will enable workers in all industries to compel their employers to pay higher wages. This theory is obviously fallacious with regard to both points on which it hinges. It assumes that duties can make an industry- profitable, i. K- - WAGES IN VICTORIA. Trades. 1878 1888 J Increase. J a £ s. d. to £ s. d. £ s. d. to £ s. d. Printers per 1000 0 1 0 — 0 1 1 — + Watchmakers „ week 2 10 0 „ 5 0 0 3 0 o„ 4 0 0 _ Man’ing Jewellers,, „ 2 15 0 „ 3 15 0 2 15 o„ 4 0 0 + Enamellers „ „ 6 0 0 „ 8 0 0 3 0 0 „ 4 0 o. _ . In Metals. Blacksmiths ,. day 0 10 0 „ 0 13 0 0 10 0 „ 0 14 0 + Farriers’ Firemen „ week 2 15 0 — 2 10 0 — _ „ Floormen „ 1 10 0 „ 2 0 0 1 15 o„ 2 0 0 + Metal Fitters ., day 0 9 o„ 0 12 0 0 9 o„ 0 13 0 + Boiler Makers ., „ 0 12 0 „ 0 13 0 0 10 o„ 0 14 0 _ Riveters ,, „ 0 9 0 „ 0 11 0 0 10 0 „ 0 11 0 + Moulders „ ., 0 10 o„ 0 13 0 0 8 0 „ 0 12 0 _ Brass Finishers „ 0 9 o„ 0 12 0 0 8 o„ 0 11 0 _ Iron Workers „ week 2 10 0 „ 3 0 0 2 2 o„ 3 0 0 ___ Galvanizers „ 3 0 0 — 2 10 o„ 3 0 0 _ In Carriages & Harness. Smiths per week 2 10 0 „ 3 15 0 2 10 o„ 4 0 0 + Bodymakers „ „ 2 10 0 „ 3 10 0 2 10 0 „ 4 0 0 + Wheelers „ „ 2 10 0 „ 3 10 0 2 10 o„ 3 0 0 — Painters „ day 0 9 0 „ 0 12 0 0 8 o„ 0 11 0 _ Saddlers ,, week 2 15 0 _ 2 0 0 „ 3 0 0 _ In Houses & Buildings. Plasterers per clay 0 10 0 — 0 10 0 „ 0 11 0 + Bricklayers ,, „ 0 10 0 — 0 10 0 „ 0 11 0 + Slaters „ „ 0 10 0 — 0 10 0 „ 0 11 0 + Labourers „ „ 0 6 6 „ 0 7 0 0 7 6 „ 0 8 6 + In Furniture. Cabinet Makers per week 2 10 0 „ 3 10 -0 2 0 0 „ 3 0 0 — Upholsterers „ „ 2 10 0 „ 4 0 0 2 5 0 „ 8 0 0 — Coopers „ day 0 10 0 — 0 9 0 „ 0 10 0 — In Dress. Tailors per hour 0 0 10 „ 0 1 0 0 0 10 _ — „ „ week 2 10 o„ 3 10 0 2 10 0 „ 3 0 0 — „ in factories „ „ 2 0 0 — 2 0 0 „ 2 10 0 + Mantle Makers „ „ 0 15 o„ 1 0 0 0 12 o,, 1 5 0 _ Milliners ist-class „ „ 8 10 0 — 3 0 0 „ 4 0 0 — „ 2nd „ „ „ 1 15 0 _ 1 0 0 „ 2 0 0 _ Dressmakers „ 0 15 o„ 1 0 0 0 12 0 „ 1 5 0 _ Needlewomen „ „ 0 15 0 „ 1 0 0 0 10 0 ), 1 0 0 _ Machinists „ „ 0 15 o„ 1 15 0 0 15 0 „ 1 10 0 _ Hat Body Makers „ doz. 0 12 0 „ 1 0 0 0 12 o„ 1 2 0 + Hat Trimmers „ ,, 0 6 0 _ 0 6 0 „ 0 9 0 + Shirtmakers in fact'ies w’k 0 12 0 „ 1 0 0 0 12 0 „ 1 5 0 + Machinists ,. „ 0 15 0 „ 1 10 0 1 0 o„ 1 15 0 + In Animal Substances. Tannners per week 1 18 0 „ 2 5 0 1 18 0 „ 2 0 0 _ Reamsmen „ „ 2 0 o„ 2 10 0 1 18 0 „ 2 5 0 _ Shedsmen „ „ 2 2 o,. 2 5 0 1 18 0 „ 2 10 0 _ In Slone & Clay. Navvies per day 0 6 6 — 0 6 6 „ 0 7 6 + Labourers „ „ 0 6 o„ 0 7 0 0 6 6 ,. 0 7 6 + APPENDIX A (Continued). WAGES IN VICTORIA. per week In Mines. Engineers Blacksmiths Foremen of drift Miners Surface Men Boys Farm Servants. Ploughmen f’nd per week Milkmen „ Reapers „ Mowers „ Cooks „ Married Couples, Station Servants Boundary R’rs fnc Shepherds Stockmen Hutkeepers Male Cooks Sheep Washers Shearers year week loo 1878 1888 £ S. ( i. to 1 £. s. d. £ s. d. to £ s. d. 2 5 o„ 6 0 0 2 0 0„ 5 0 0 2 0 0„ 4 0 0 1 15 0,. 3 0 0 2 2 0 „ 4 0 0 2 0 o„ 3 0 0 2 5 0„ 2 10 0 2 0 0„ 2 10 0 2 0 0 — 1 10 0„ 2 10 0 0 10 0„ 2 0 0 0 15 0,: , 1 16 0 1 0 0„ 1 1 0 1 0 0„ , 1 5 0 0 15 o„ 0 18 0 0 15 0,. , 1 0 0 0 7 6„ 0 15 0 0 10 0,, , 0 15 0 0 6 0 _ 0 4 o , , o 6 0 40 0 0„ 50 0 0 50 0 o, ,60 0 0 60 0 0„ 80 0 0 70 0 o, , 90 0 0 40 0 0„ 50 0 0 40 0 o, ,60 0 0 40 0 0„ 50 0 0 36 0 0 , ,52 0 0 40 0 0„ 50 0 0 50 0 o, i 75 0 0 26 0 0 _ 30 0 o, ,40 0 0 40 0 0„ 50 0 0 50 0 o, ,60 0 0 0 15 0„ 1 2 0 0 15 o, , 1 5 0 0 15 0 „ 1 0 0 0 15 o, , o 16 0 Decrease. WAGES IN VICTORIA AND NEW SOUTH WALES IN rtfs# New South Wales. Iron Moulders per day £ 0 s. 8 d. to £ 8. d. 0 „ 0110 Boiler Makers 0 8 0 ” 0110 Iron Turners 0 8 0 „ 0110 Blacksmiths 0 9 4 „ 0 10 0 Brass Finishers 0 8 0 „ 0110 Coppersmiths 1> l| 0 8 0 „ 0110 Stone Masons 0 10 0 „ 0 11 0 Bricklayers 0 10 0 „ 0 11 0 Plasterers 0 11 0 — Carpenters 0 10 0 „ 0 11 0 Printers it 0 9 0 — Plumbers it ’ 0 9 0 ,, 0 12 0 Slaters 0 10 0 „ 0 12 0 Coach Painters per week 0 6 8 „ 0 11 0 Tailors 2 10 0 „ 3 0 0 Pressers it n 2 10 0 „ 3 0 0 Upholsterers per day 0 10 0 ,, 0 12 0 Cabinetmakers 0 8 0 „ 0 10 0 Polishers 0 8 0 „ 0 10 0 Miners ii n 0 8 0 „ 0 12 0 Quarry men n i. 0 7 0 „ 0 10 0 Navvies 0 6 6 „ 0 8 0 Miners per week 3 0 0 — M’r d Couples found year 65 0 0 „ 80 00 rarm Laborers 40 0 0 „ 52 00 Boundary Riders 40 0 0 „ 52 00 Stockmen ’ 40 0 0 ,. 75 0 0 Shepherds 35 0 0 „ 45 0 0 Shearers found per ioo 1 0 0 _ Victoria. £ s. d. to £ s. d. 0 8 0 ii 0 12 0 0 10 0 ii 0 14 0 0 10 0 „ 0 13 0 0 10 0 ,, 0 14 0 0 8 0 „ 0 11 0 0 8 0 „ 0 11 0 0 10 0 n 0 110 0 10 o 0 11 0 0 10 o». 0 11 0 0 10 0 _ 0 8 0 i. 0 10 0 0 11 0 _ 0 10 o ,, 0 11 o 0 8 o „ 0 11 o 2 0 0 ii 3 0 0 2 0 o 2 15 0 0 8 o „ 0 11 0 0 7 o 0 11 0 0 7 0 0 11 0 0 0 0 2 5 70 0 39 0 40 0 50 0 30 0 0 15 0 9 0 0 12 0 0 7 6 2 10 0 90 0 0 52 0 0 60 0 0 75 0 0 40 0 0 0 16 0 (in Victoria.! k Appendix C. COMPARISON OF PRICES IN SYDNEY BOURNE, 1890. AND MEL- Httlling & Spang’h’g’s Piano ROsener medium size „ Schwechten .» Cheap Cottage Harmonium Medium American Organ Philipps Bedstead a »> 1, ^ Bismark Lamps Austrian Chairs No. 14 Amer.-Chair Astor or Grec’n c-frame Brussels Carpet Lambs’ Wool Shirts for men Dr. Jaeger’s Sanitary Vests Cardigan Jackets inch Wire Nails Cwt. Picks D.E. Road Ploughs Brighton Favourite „ Farmer’s Pride Eckhert’s Plough Solid Comfort D’ble Furrow Harrows Randall Steel Disc CnltvYs Coleman & Morton’ Hnyrakes Hollingsworth n Ransome’s Star Mowers McCormick’s Stee Duty. Sydney. £ £ s. d. 5 22 5 0 5 31 10 0 5 55 10 0 3 6 10 0 3 21 10 0 384% 3 2 6 384% 1 0 9 0 2 3 384% 0 4 6 384% 0 3 9 22°/o 0 3 3 384% 0 5 3 384°/o 0 10 3 384% 0 4 0 5s 0 15 0 384% 0 2 6 4 5 0 7 0 0 11 5 0 18 10 0 No. 6 7 0 0 No. 7 8 12 6 s No. 5 10 10 0 10 10 0 14 10 0 :1 Horse 16 0 0 £ s. 30 0 40 0 65 0 10 10 27 10 4 5 0 14 0 5 1 1 0 3 5 0 8 0 13 0 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 0 0 12 0 0 16 10 0 18 10 0 Appendix D INCREASE OF PUBLIC AND PRIVATE DEBT TO FOREIGN COUNTRIES IN NEW SOUTH WALES. i £ * £ 1 i; g > 1 8 SL* ° cent. per xcess over s. 1 Imports. Exports. xcess of ports i/er Exp « c — $ a. u d 5 per merest turn to E Imports Export d 5 per merest | mm toE Exports Import UJ 0 tsi 0 rj — ^ < rt ° < 1857 6,729.408 4,011,952 2.717.456 4,211,032 2,809,620 1X58 6,059,366 4.186,277 1,873,089 1850 6,597,053 4,768.149 1,828,904 1,913,905 1X60 7,519,285 5,072,020 2,447,265 3,426,064 1861 6,391,555 5,594.839 796.716 l ,075,545 1802 9,334,645 7,102,562 2.232,083 2,901,704 1868 8,319,576 6.935.839 1,382,737 1,728,400 1864 1 I 8,117,217 1,728.825 2,074,584 1 ftfiS 9,928,595 8,191,170 1,737,425 1,998,033 1866 8,867,017 8,512,214 354,803 390,280 1867 6,880,715 6,53!),804 280,911 294,945 1868 7.192.904 8,051,377 858,473 858,473 1869 9,933,442 8,392.753 1,540,689 1,463,646 1870 7,990,038 7,757,281 232,757 227,466 1871 11.245,032 9,609,508 1,635.524 1,390,192 1872 10.447.049 9,208,496 1,238,553 1,070,832 1873 9,387,873 10,471.483 1,083,610 812,*00 1874 12,345.603 11,293,739 1,051,864 736,302 1875 13,671,580 13,490.200 181,380 767,897 1876 13.003,941 13,672,776 668,835 401,292 1877 14,606.594 12,925,819 1,680,775 924,418 1878 14,768,873 12,965,879 1,802,994 901,497 500,499 1879 14,198,847 13,086,819 1,112,028 1880 13,950,075 15,525,138 1,576,063 630,024 1881 17,409,326 16,039.503 1,369,823 479,437 1882 21,281,130 16,716,961 19.886,018 4,565,169 1,369,548 1883 20,960.157 1,074,139 268,530 1884 22,826,985 17,251,506 5.575,479 1,115,092 1885 23.365,196 16,541.745 6,823,451 1,023,516 1886 20,973,548 15,556,213 5,417,335 941,732 1887 18,806,236 18,496,917 309,319 15,465 1888 20.885,557 20,859,715 25,842 1,292 1889 22,546,233 23,254.151 707,918 2,650,866* 209,299 53,017.335 4,893.899 38,670,047 2,913,080 38,670.047 2,913,080 91,687.372 7,S06,979 7,806,979 Total debt incurred since ’57 £ 83.880.393 Increase of Debt since 1866. 36,272,835 14,575,358 4,893,899 2.913,080 14,575,358f 2,913,0S0t 50,S48,193 7,806,979 7,806,979 Total increseof debt since '66 £ 43,041,214 ^Interest in 1889 on excess of previous years, tExclusive of interest on debts incurred previous to 1866. AI’PENDIX lfi. DEBT of victoria to foreign countries. Year. Imports. Exports. Excess of Imports over -.Exports, with addi- I tion to the former of 9 per cent, from 1866 inclusive. lExcess of Exports over 1 Imports, with addi- ! tion to the latter of ■ from 9 l865 Inclusive, j Add 5 per ct. interest j per annum on Excess of Imports j over Exports. Add 5 per ct. interest j Excess of Exports over Imports. 1837 115,379 12.178 103,201 363,160 1838 73,230 27,998 46,232 115,800 188!) 204,722 77,684 127,038 311,119 1840 435,867 128,860 306,507 736.400 1841 864,399 200,305 164,094 365,588 1842 277,427 198,783 78,644 180,872 1843 188,036 254,482 66,446 149,490 1844 151,062 256,847 105.785 232,716 1845 248,293 463,597 215,304 462,895 184 ti 315,561 425.201 109,640 230,244 1847 437,696 668,511 220,81g 452,640 1848 373,676 676,859 301,683 603,360 1840 479,831 755,326 275,494 637,186 744,925 1,041,796 296.871 564,034 1851 1,056,437 1.422,909 366.472 077,951 1852 4,069,742 7,451,549 3,381,807 6,087,240 1853 15,842.637 11,061,544 4,781,093 8,366,890 1854 17,659,051 11,775,204 5,883,847 10,002,528 1855 12,007,939 13,493.338 1,485,399 2,450,877 1856 14,962.269 15,489,760 527,491 843,968 1857 17,256.209 15,079,612 2,176,697 3,373,854 1858 16,108,249 13,989,209 1,119,040 1,678,560 1859 15,622,891 13,867,869 1,755,042 2,514,808 1860 15,093,730 12,962,704 2,131,026 2,983,528 1861 13,532,452 13,828.606 296,154 399,789 1862 13,487,787 13,039,422 448,365 582,868 1863 14,118,727 13,566,296 552,431 690,525 1864 14,974,816 13.898.384 1,076.431 1,292,704 1865 13,257,537 13,850,748 106,789 123,782 1866 11,771,711 12.889,546 3,221,618 3,543,760 1867 11,674,080 12,724,427 320 336 1868 13,320,862 v 15,593,990 1,074,469 1,074,469 1869 13,908,990 13,464.354 1,696,445 1,611,618 1870 12,455,758 12,470.014 1,106,762 996,084 1871 12,341,995 14,557,820 1,105,056 939,284 1872 13,691.322 13,871,195 1,052,345 841,792 1873 16,533,856 15,302,454 2,719,449 2,039,580 1874 16,953,985 15,441,109 3,038,734 2,127,804 1875 16,685,874 14,766,974 3,420,638 2,223,403 1876 15,705, .>54 14,196,487 2,922,442 1,755,464 1877 16,362,304 15,157,687 2,677,234 1,472,471 1878 16,161,880 14,925.707 2,691,342 1,345,670 1879 12.454,170 3,934,466 1,770,507 1880 14,556,894 15,954,559 87,545 35,016 1881 16,718.521 16,252,103 1,871,084 654,878 1882 18,748,081 16.193,579 4,241,829 1,272,546 1883 17,743,846 16,398,863 2,941.229 735,305 1884 19,201,633 16,050,465 4,879,314 995,860 1885 18,044,604 15,551.758 1,117,360 617,589 1886 18,530.576 11,796,821 8,203,005 820,300 1887 19,022.151 11,351,145 8,382,999 419,149 1888 23,972,134 13,853,763 12,275,863 613,793 1889 24,402,760 12,734,734 13,964,274 4,812,547* 495,821* 110,215,229 9,916,427 64,383,416 16,346,080 • Interest (or 1889 on Excess of Appendix E ( Continued ). DEBT OF VICTORIA TO FOREIGN COUNTRIES. 89 , 358,752 27 , 121,709 2 , 207,070 2 , 151,196 27 , 121 , 709 f 2,161,196f 116 , 480,401 4 , 418,200 4 , 418,266 Total Increase £ 112 , 002,195 t Exclusive of interest on excess of years previous to if ^TEL>EPHOr*E 817. Sffll *1finds of General fp Gommercial printing ^Egecvied iq «—V— BEST STYhES .-^— 1 'fiffpst approved jfirqerican ^Resigns. ■ • r \ • ' ' j|PR\\l\ERS jVND P\lE\i\S\\m. yfl B._ S an k Stationery , pamphlets, Gata- logues, 'periodicals. -BSTICT1ATE3" CHEERFUUbY - GIVEN- -»"® *£S ; Calls by Post or Telephone Promptly Attended t •MHJS’PKAhl&N BUILDINGS# ill Floor. Corner mil Street and Flinders Lane. FACTORY: BEST STREET, NORTH FITZROY.