SERVICE THE LIBRARY niversi of Missouri - 0 OF CONGRESS ll ||!||l[|)|!| lfllll IIVHIII o1o-1 3940 Hllllfi POLL DATABASE FILE The information contained in this publica- tion has been drawn form the Congres- sional Research Service’s POLL (Public Opinion Legislative Locator) database file. The POLL file contains the results of public opinion surveys, as reported in news releases or printed studies, con- ducted by some of the major public opin- ion polling organizations. The POLL file was developed for CRS by the Survey Research Center at the Uf&i\tersTity.of,_g California at Berkeley and is currently,-' stored in the Stanford University com- puter. A The POLL file cp;ntains.the reported results of the Harris S"'11‘i‘v‘ely,’ the.._G-allup Poll, the CBS News/ New York Times‘ Poll and the NBC News Poll since January 1, 1978. Information from these sources is added to the file continually. The POLL file also contains the results of selected special surveys conducted for government agencies or private organizations. As new studies of likely interest to Members of Congress are released CRS hopesto add -them to the database. SOME CAVEATS ABOUT INTERPRETING PUBLIC OPINION POLLS AND ABOUT THE POLL DATABASE There are several reasons for exercising care in interpreting the results of any pub- ~ lic opinion poll: results of a single survey may be biased because of the timing of the study; in making comparisons among the results of various polls differences in question-wording, in the groups surveyed and in the methods used by the various research firms may lead to faulty conclu- sions; and in addition, all polls and surveys based on samples of respondents are sub- ject to sampling error. Eflects of Timing. The results of any single survey are based upon interviews conducted during a short period of time and events may cause public attitudes to change quite quickly and dramatically. While a single survey may record attitudes at a moment in time, the survey cannot measure change. A‘ review of the results of many surveys conducted over a period of time tends to provide a clearerlpicture of the stability or instability of public at- titudes. Difiiculties in Comparing Survey Re- sults. However, comparisons of the results of different surveys over a period of time may also pose problems. One reason is that slight variations in the wording of questions may have major impacts on the results. Surveys only measure the response of the public to specific questions. There- fore, any variation might give the appear- ance that a “change” or that an “ inconsist- ency” in attitudes has been expressed by the respondents when none may have oc- curred. Any change in wording may mean that the survey is actually measuring some- thing different from a previous survey on the same subject. Differences in the results of similar questions may also occur because different populations are surveyed. For example, asking the same question of a sample of “registered voters” and of a sample of “likely voters” may produce widely differ- ing results because each sample is repre- sentative of a different population group- ing. Different methods (e.g., telephone interviewing and in-person interviewing) used with exactly the same questions may produce different results as well. Sampling Error. The results of surveys of the public are all subject to sampling error. Sampling error is the error (best thought of as “uncertainty” rather than “mistake”) introduced because the survey only includes a fraction of the population studied. In general, the larger the sample, the smaller the error will be. When supplied by the polling organization, esti- mates of the sampling error have been included in the entries in the POLL file. These estimates, unless noted, are appli- cable only for results based on the total sample and are likely to be much larger for estimates based on subpopulation group- ings. Limitations of the POLL File. The accu- racy of the information contained in the POLL file is dependent on the accuracy of the published source from which the in- formation is taken. While CRS makes every effort to check the database informa- tion against the original published version, we are not able to verify the original pub- lished version against the actual data col-_ lected or to verify the description of tl actual field procedures used by the various organizations. ' The POLL database file, as indicated above, is limited in its coverage. While providing results from some of the major polling organizations, the file does not cover all the public opinion results on any topic. However, CRS does maintain paper files — in some cases dating back to the l930s—on public opinion poll results both nationally and for some States and lo- calities. FOR MORE INFORMATION If you require a more detailed search on a particular topic beyond what is contained in this publication or if you would like us to make a special search of the POLL file on a topic not covered in this series, please place your request through the general CRS'inquiry number— 287-5700. If you would like further information about a specific question in this publication, please indicate in your request the question’s identification number which you will find at the top left comer of each entry in the publication and which consists of two al- phabetic and seven numeric characte (e.g., HS.06/15/79.9). Because the ques- tion identification number contains the re- lease date for the study, we will be able to quickly find the original release in our files. A FEDERAL SPENDING, l98l: PUBLIC OPINION ISSUE BRIEF NUMBER IB8l032 AUTHOR: Crocker, Royce Government Division THE LIBRARY OF CONGRESS CONGRESSIONAL RESEARCH SERVICE MAJOR ISSUES SYSTEM DATE ORIGINATED 03/23/81 DATE UPDATED llZl9Z8l FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CALL 287-5700 lll9 CRS-l A IB8l032 ISSUE DEFINITION The following series of questions on Federal Spending and Balancing the Budget were asked by various public opinion polling organizations and covers the period May l98l - Aug. l98l. The results of the survey questions shown in the tables are reported as percentages. For a discussion of the possible limitation of these poll results, consult the section titled "Some Caveats About Interpreting Public Opinion Polls and About the Poll Database, which is located on the back of the cover page. ’ RESULTS OF THE POLLS NB.O8/18/81.6 THE NBC/ASSOCIATED PRESS POLL HEARD OR READ ABOUT REAGAN'S ECONOMIC PROGRAM? Have you heard or read anything about President Reagan's program, recently approved by Congress, to cut Federal spending and Federal income taxes? Percent Yes 77 No ‘ P 21 Not sure A 2 The results of the survey are based on telephone interviews with a sample of 1,601 adults, l8 and older, conducted nationwide during the period Aug. 10-11, 1981. The release states that, ' four hundred points were selected propor- tionate to the population of each region, and, within region, the size of place. Individuals were selected in accordance with a probability sample design that gives all telephone numbers (both listed and unlisted) a properly proportionate chance to be included. One adult, 18 years old or over, from each household was included, selected by a systematic procedure to provide a balance of respondents by sex.’ According to the release, ‘the estimated average sample tolerance of data from the August National Poll is plus or minus 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. That is, the chances are about 19 out of 20 that if all households with telephones in the United States had been surveyed with the same questionnaire, the results of the complete census would not be found to deviate from the poll findings by more than 3 percentage points.‘ NB.O8/18/81.7 THE NBC/ASSOCIATED PRESS POLL EFFECT OF REAGAN'S ECONOMIC PROGRAM ON INFLATION CRS-2 IB8lO32 Do you think Reagan's program will reduce inflation significantly? (IF YES, ASK) Do you think it will reduce inflation within a year, within two years, or will it take more than two years? (Asked of those who HEARD OF REAGAN'S ECONOMIC PROGRAM--77% of sample.) Percent Inflation won't be reduced . 39 Within a year 6 Within two years 16 More than two years 22 Not sure 17 See Question NB.O8/18/81.6 above for a description of the study. NB.O8/18/81.9 THE NBC/ASSOCIATED PRESS POLL EFFECT OF REAGAN'SECONOMIC PROGRAM ON INTEREST RATES Do you think Reagan's program will reduce interest rates significantly? (IF YES, ASK) Do you think it will reduce interest rates within a year, within two years, or will it take more than two years? (Asked of those who HEARD OF REAGAN'S ECONOMIC PROGRAMF-77% of sample.) Percent Interest rates won't be reduced 44 Within a year A 10 Within two years A 16 More than two years 14 Not sure 16 See Question NB.O8/18/81.6 above for a description of the study. NB.O8/18/81.10 THE NBC/ASSOCIATED PRESS POLL AGREE REAGAN'S ECONOMIC PROGRAM HELPS UPPER-INCOME AMERICANS? Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: ‘Reagan's economic program will help upper-income Americans and hurt those with low income.‘ CRS-3 IB8l032 Percent Agree 53 Disagree 36 Not sure 11 See Question NB.O8/18/81.6 above for a description of the study. NB.O8/18/81.40 THE NBC/ASSOCIATED PRESS POLL KNOW HOW OWN CONGRESSMAN VOTE ON REAGAN ECONOMIC PROGRAM? Do you happen to know how your Congressman voted on President Reagan's economic program? (IF YES, ASK) Did your Congressman vote for or against the President's economic program? Percent Don't know/Not sure 69 For _ _ 23 Against 8 See Question NB.O6/18/81.6 above for a description of the study. HS.O7/30/81.1 THE HARRIS SURVEY IMPACT OF REAGAN'S ECONOMIC PROGRAM A year from now, as a result of President Reagan's economic program, do you feel (READ EACH ITEM) or not? Will Will Not Not Sure The elderly, the poor, and the 63 31 6 handicapped will be especially hard hit The rate of inflation will have 33 56 11 come down to below 10% Interest rates on borrowing 30 60 10 will have come down sharply CRS-4 IB8lO32 The results of the survey are based on telephone interviews with a sample of 1,252 adults, 18 and older, conducted nationwide during the period July 8-12, 1981. According to the release, 'in a sample of this size, one can say with 95% certainty that the results are within plus or minus 3 percentage points of what they would be if the entire adult population had been polled.‘ NB.O7/24/81.10 THE NBC/ASSOCIATED PRESS POLL HEARD OR READ ABOUT REAGAN'S ECONOMIC PROPOSALS? Have you heard or read anything about President Reagan's proposals, made earlier this year, to cut Federal spending and Federal income taxes? Percent Yes 89 No 9 Not sure 2 NBC News and The Associated Press conducted the July National Poll by telephone on July 13 and 14 1981, among 1,599 adults across the country. The release states that, ‘four hundred points were selected proportionate to the population of each region, and, within region, the size of place. Individuals were selected in accordance with a probability sample design that gives all telephone numbers (both listed and unlisted) a properly proportionate chance to be included. One adult, 18 years old and over, from each household was included, selected by a systematic procedure to provide a balance by sex.‘ According to the release, ' the estimated average sample tolerance of data from the July National Poll is plus or minus 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. That is, the chances are about 19 out of 20 that if all ‘households with telephones in the United States had been surveyed with the same questionnaire, the results of the complete census would not be found to deviate from the poll findings by more than 3 percentage points.’ NB.O7/24/81.11 THE NBC/ASSOCIATED PRESS POLL FAVOR OR OPPOSE REAGAN'S PROPOSED CUTS IN FEDERAL SPENDING? Reagan has proposed cutting Federal spending by $49 billion in the next year, reducing many programs. Do you favor or oppose these cuts, or don't you know enough about them to have an opinion? (HEARD OF REAGAN'S ECONOMIC PROPOSALS--89% of sample.) CRS-5 IB8l032 Percent Favor 39 Oppose . 22 Favor some/Oppose some (volunteered) 17 No opinion/Not sure 22 See Question NB.O7/24/81.10 above for a description of the study. NB.O7/24/81.14 THE NBC/ASSOCIATED PRESS POLL HAVE YOU TALKED WITH FAMILY ABOUT REAGAN'S ECONOMIC PROPOSALS? Have you talked with your family or friends in the past two weeks about President Reagan's proposals to cut Federal spending and Federal taxes? (IF YES, ASK) Have you discussed these proposals a lot, some, or only a little? (HEARD OF REAGAN'S ECONOMIC PROPOSALS--89% of sample.) Percent Have talked a lot 20 Have talked some 22 Have talked only a little 13 Have not talked 45 Not sure 0 See Question NB.O7/24/lO above for a description of the study. NB.O7/24/81.15 THE NBC/ASSOCIATED PRESS POLL EFFECT OF REAGAN'S ECONOMIC PROPOSALS ON CONTROLLING INFLATION? Reagan says that his proposals will reduce inflation and help the economy get moving again. Others say his proposals will.make inflation worse without really helping the economy. From what you know, how likely do you think it is that Reagan's proposals will reduce inflation...very likely, somewhat likely, or not likely at all? (HEARD OF REAGAN'S ECONOMIC PROPOSALS--89% of sample.) CRS-6 IB8lO32 Percent Very likely 24 Somewhat likely 47 Not likely at all 23 Not sure 6 See Question NB.O7/24/81.10 above for a description of the study. HS.O7/09/81.1 THE HARRIS SURVEY FACTORS IN CUTTING THE RATE OF INFLATION A number of ideas have been put forth on how to solve the problem of infla- tion. Tell me for each of these if you think that would be a major factor in cutting down the rate of inflation, a minor factor, or hardly a factor in cutting down the rate of inflation. Major Minor Hardly A Not Factor Factor Factor Sure A big cut in Federal spending 70 18 9 '3 A big multi-year cut in Federal 42 38 15 5 personal income taxes The results of the survey are based on telephone interviews with 1,245 adults, 18 and older, conducted within the continental United States between June 3-7, 1981. According to the release, ‘in a sample of this size, one can say with 95% certainty that the results are within plus or minus 3 percentage points of what they would be if the entire adult population had been polled.‘ CB.06/30/81.10 THE CBS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL WILL REAGAN BALANCE FEDERAL BUDGET? Do you think Ronald Reagan will, or will not, be able to balance the Federal budget within the next four years? Percent Will I 35 CRS-7 IB8lO32 Will not 59 No opinion 6 The results of the survey are based on telephone interviews with 1,433 adults conducted nationwide between June 22-27, 1981. According to the release, ‘the error due to sampling could be plus or minus 3 percentage points for results based on the total sample.’ ' CB.O6/30/81.11 THE CBS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL CAN ANY PRESIDENT BALANCE THE FEDERAL BUDGET? Do you think it's possible for ANY President to balance the Federal budget in the next four years, or is that something beyond ANY President's control? (Asked of those who said WILL NOT or NO OPINION on Reagan balancing budget--65% of sample.) Percent Possible ” 11 Beyond control 80 No opinion 9 See Question CB.O6/30/81.10 above for a description of the study. CB.O6/30/81.21 THE CBS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL APPROVE OR DISAPPROVE OF REAGAN'S BUDGET PROPOSALS In general, do you approve or disapprove of Ronald Reagan's budget proposals for government spending, or don't you know enough about them to have an opinion? Percent Approve 31 Disapprove 16 Don't know enough 47 Undecided/No opinion 6 CRS-8 IB8lO32 See Question CB.O6/30/81.10 above for a description of the study. CB.O6/30/81.22 THE CBS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL WILL PROPOSED CUTS HURT YOU PERSONALLY? Will any of his proposed cuts in Federal spending hurt you personally? . Percent Yes 42 No 49 No opinion - 9 See Question CB.O6/30/81.10 above for a description of the study. CB.O6/30/81.24 THE CBS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL SOCIAL PROGRAM CUTS MADE UP BY STATE AND LOCAL GOVTS. OR CHARITIES? If the Federal government cuts the amount of money spent on social programs, do you think these cuts should be made up by state and local governments, or should be made up by private charities, or shouldn't they be made up at all? Percent State/Local 45 Private charities 13 Shouldn't be made up 27 No opinion 15 See Question CB.O6/30/81.10 above for a description of the study. CB.O6/30/81.25 THE CBS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL WILLINGNESS TO PAY HIGHER STATE OR LOCAL TAXES TO MAKE UP CUTS CRS-9 IB81032 If the cuts in social programs go through, would you be willing or not willing to pay more in State taxes to make up the difference? Percent Willing 37 Not willing 54 No opinion 9 R See Question CB.O6/30/81.10 above for a description of the study. CB.O6/30/81.26 THE CBS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL WOULD YOU CONTRIBUTE $100 TO CHARITY TO HELP MAKE UP DIFFERENCE? To help make up the difference if the cuts go through, do you think you would contribute at least $100 more a year to charity than you do now? Percent Yes . V I 42 No 50 No opinion 8 See Question CB.O6/30/81.10 above for a description of the study. HS.O6/25/81.2 THE HARRIS SURVEY REAGAN RATED ON SPECIFICS Now let me ask you some specific things President Reagan has done. How would you rate him on [READ EACH ITEM]--excellent, pretty good, only fair, or poor? Excellent Pretty Only Poor Not Good Fair Sure iHis program for cutting 20 34 29 15 2 Federal spending The results of the survey are based on telephone interviews with 1,245 adults, 18 and older, conducted within the continental United States between June 3-7, 1981. According to the release, ‘in a sample of this size, one can say with CRS-10 I88lO32 95% certainty that the results are within plus or minus 3 percentage points of what they would be if the entire adult population had been polled.‘ HS.O6/18/81.1 THE HARRIS SURVEY ECONOMIC CONDITIONS A YEAR FROM NOW A year from now, as a result of President Reagan's economic program, do you feel [READ EACH ITEM] or not? Will Will Not Not Sure Happen Happen The rich and big business will be 72 21 7 much better off The elderly, the poor, and the 68 29 3 handicapped will be especially hard hit Productivity will be rising steadily 58 34 8 The Federal budget will be on the 51 43 6 way to being balanced The economy will be expanding at a 49 43 8 healthy rate Investment for economic growth will 48 40 - l2 be up sharply Mortgage rates will be lower so that 46 49 p5 more new housing will be available Unemployment will be reduced to 42 52 6 below where it is now The rate of inflation will have come 32 58 1O down to below 10% Interest rates on borrowing will 31 62 7 have come down sharply The results are based on a telephone survey of 1,245 adults nation- wide conducted between June 3-7, 1981. CRS-ll IB8lO32 GP.O6/O8/81.1 THE GALLUP POLL ARE BUDGET CUTS TOO HIGH? The Reagan administration budget has called for cuts in federal government spending in a number of areas. Do you feel that the total amount of spending CUTS that the Reagan administration wants to make is too high, too low, or about the right amount? Percent Too high 34 About right 46 Too low 12 No opinion 8 The results of the survey are based on personal interviews with 1,519 adults, 18 and older, conducted in more than 300 sampled localities across the nation during the period May 8-11, 1981. According to the release, ‘for results based on a sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the error attributable to sampling and other random effects could be three percentage points in either direction.’ GP.O6/O8/81.2 THE GALLUP POLL OBJECT TO ANY SPENDING CUTS? In general, are there any specific cuts being made in federal government spending that you disapprove of? Percent Yes, disapprove of one or more spending cuts 48 No, do not disapprove of any cuts 41 No opinion 11 See Question GP.O6/O8/81.1 above for a description of the study. CRS-12 IB8lO32 GP.O6/08/81.3 THE GALLUP POLL OBJECTIONS TO CUTS IN WHICH PROGRAMS? Which spending cuts do you disapprove? (Asked of those who DISAPPROVED OF CUTS--48% of sample.) Percent * Social Security 17 Federal aid to education 8 Welfare 8 Aid to the elderly 6 Social programs (general) 5 Food stamps 5 Medicare/Medicaid 4 CETA job programs 4 Financial aid to college students it 3 Veterans benefits 2 School lunches 2 Fuel/rent/utility subsidies 2 Other programs : 9 Don't know 2 NOTE(S): * Percentages are expressed as percentages of the total population and »NOT as percentages of those who disapproved of the cuts. Percentages total to more than 48 percent due to multiple responses. See Question GP.O6/08/81.1 above for a description of the study. GP.O6/07/81.1 THE GALLUP POLL CHANGE IN PERSONAL FINANCIAL SITUATION CAUSED BY REAGAN'S ECONOMIC PROPOSALS CRS-13 . IB81032 Now, let's talk about the Reagan Administration's economic policies. What effect do you think that these policies will have on your own and your family's financial situation? Do you feel your financial situation will be much better, somewhat better, somewhat worse, or much worse as a result of the Reagan economic policies? Percent Much better 7 Somewhat better 41 Somewhat worse 28 Much worse 9 No opinion 15 The results of the survey are based on personal interviews with 1,519 adults, 18 and older, conducted in more than 300 sampled localities across the nation during the period May 8-11, 1981. According to the release, ‘for results based on the total sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the error attributable to sampling and other random effects could be three percen- tage points in either direction.‘ GP.O6/O7/81.2 THE GALLUP POLL WILL SPENDING CUTS HAVE AN EFFECT ON YOU? Do you expect the cuts in federal government spending may hurt you or your family's financial situation in any of the ways shown on this card? [Respon- dents were handed a card listing 12 possible effects of government spending cuts.] Percent May have an effect on me or my family 64 Will have no effect on me or my family 33 No opinion . 3 See Question GP.O6/07/81.1 above for a description of the study. CRS-14 IB8lO32 NB.O6/O4/81.18 THE NBC/ASSOCIATED PRESS POLL HEARD OR READ ABOUT REAGAN'S ECONOMIC PROPOSALS? Have you heard or read anything about President Reagan's economic proposals that involve cutting federal spending and federal income taxes? Percent Yes 71 No 26 Not sure 3 The results of the survey are based on telephone interviews with 1,599 adults conducted across the country between May 18-19, 1981. The release states: ‘Four hundred points were selected proportionate to the population of each 'subregion, and, within subregion, the size of place. Individuals were selected in accordance with a probability sample design that gives all telephone numbers (both listed and unlisted) a properly proportionate chance to be included. One adult, 18 years old and over, from each household was included, selected by a systematic procedure to provide a balance of respondents by sex.’ According to the release, ‘the estimated average sample tolerance of data from the May National Poll is plus or minus 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. That is, the chances are about 19 out of 20 that if all households with tele- phones in the United States had been surveyed with the same questionnaire, the results of the complete census would not be found to deviate from the poll findings by more than 3 percentage points.‘ NB.06/04/81.19 THE NBC/ASSOCIATED PRESS POLL FAVOR REAGAN'S PROPOSED CUTS IN SPENDING? First, Reagan has proposed cutting federal spending by $49 billion in the next year, reducing many programs. Do you favor or oppose these cuts, or don't you know enough about them to have an opinion? . (Asked of those who HEARD/READ ABOUT REAGAN'S PROPOSALS--71% of sample.) Percent Favor 56 Oppose 18 Favor some, oppose some 16 (volunteered) CRS-15 IB8lO32 No opinion/Not sure 10 See Question NB.O6/O4/81.18 above for a description of the study. NB.O6/O4/81.21 THE NBC/ASSOCIATED PRESS POLL WILL REAGAN'S PROPOSALS REDUCE INFLATION? Reagan says that his proposals will reduce inflation and help the economy get moving again. Others say his proposals will make inflation worse without really helping the economy. From what you know, how likely do you think it is that Reagan's proposals will reduce inflation...very likely, somewhat likely, or not likely at all? (Asked of those who HEARD/READ ABOUT REAGAN'S PROPOSALS--71% of sample.) Percent Very likely 26 Somewhat likely 46 Not likely at all 22 Not sure 6 See Question NB.O6/O4/81.18 above for a description of the study. NB.O6/O4/81.26 THE NBC/ASSOCIATED PRESS POLL VOTE FOR HOUSE MEMBERS WHO SUPPORT REAGAN'S ECONOMIC PROPOSALS Would you be more or less likely to vote for your current representative in the U.S. House in the next election if he or she voted FOR President Reagan's economic proposals, or wouldn't that make any difference to you? Percent More likely 29 Less likely 11 No difference 53 Not sure 7 CRS-16 IB8l032 See Question NB.O6/O4/81.18 above for a description of the study. Hs.05/04/81.1 THE HARRIS SURVEY ECONOMIC EXPECTATIONS A year from now, as a result of President Reagan's economic program, do you feel [READ EACH ITEM] or not? Will Happen Will Not Happen Not Sure The Federal budget will be 56 _ 35 9 on the way to being balanced Unemployment will be 48 43 9 reduced to below where it is now Mortgage rates will be 47 43 10 lower so that more new housing will be available The rate sf inflation will 35 55 10 have come down to below 10% Interest rates on 30 60 10 borrowing will have come down sharply The results of the survey are based on telephone interviews with 1,255 adults in the continental United States conducted between Apr. 29-30, 1981. According to the release ‘in a sample of this size, one can say with 95% certainty that the results are within plus or minus 3 percentage points of what they would be if the entire adult population had been polled.‘ CB.O5/O2/81.3 THE CBS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL ‘ WHICH PARTIES ARE BETTER ABLE TO HANDLE SPECIFlC PROBLEMS? Regardless of how you vote, do you think the Republican Party or the Democratic Party is ..... CRS-l7 \ IB8lO32 Republican Democratic No Diff/ No Opinion Neither ... better able to control 57 17 14 12 Federal spending? The results of the survey are based on telephone interviews among a nationwide random sample of 1,439 adults conducted between Apr. 22-26, 1981. According to the release, ‘the error due to sampling could be plus or minus 3 percentage points for results based on the total sample.‘ LJBFUAFPI OF VUfifl§%HRK3 U ax‘: V = ' ‘Y "M" *‘*-2." 5'.‘.“_.\= 4 1 Sm . - M0. 2?-:4 ‘ ,nr.r.v-I-xnJuj..9m-