53% \mi§i@jm®@fl@j\@§@fi§i&n\nu ENERGY INFOREATION AND DATA: SOURCES, RELIABILITY, AND PROBLEMS ISSUE BRIEF NUMBER IB79106 AUTHOR: waterhouse, Michael Congressional Reference Division Ahbasi, Susan Environment and Natural Resources Policy Division THE LIBRARY OF CONGRESS CONGRESSIONAL RESEARCH SERVICE HAJOR ISSUES SYSTEM DATE ORIGINATED ggggggzg DATE UPDATED gzgglggg FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CALL 287-5700 0731 CRS- 1 IB79106 UPDATE-07/31/80 ISSUE Dnrigggggg Current and future energy policy decisions depend in large part on accurate and timely information on the availability of all types of energy resources. The authenticity of recent statistical calculations has been questioned both with respect to the petroleum resource base and its refined products. Widespread public skepticism of Governments assessments of the Nation's energy problems has been evident. Related questions have been raised about the Government's emergency energy response machinery, and whether measures that were adopted to alleviate an ostensible shortage in the spring of 1979 were based on appropriate assumptions and information. Variable and.souetimes conflicting statistics regarding the gravity of the irecent world oil "shortage" have heightened concern among energy analysts and the public as to the reliability of information collected on petroleum and petroleum reserves, as well as on other energy sources. 9 QAS59399E2-A.!i2_;PQ1.-lQ¥...é!ALZ§l.§ Public awareness of an energy supply problem first developed in the United States during the Arab oil embargo of 1973 and 197u. The emergency that was caused by the interruption in the delivery of foreign petroleum created the weed to compile a network of statistics that would keep the Government and ,he public informed on the status of energy supply. Policy decisions and recommendations on possible Federal intervention to help ease the impacts of the shortage and the need for conservation measures by the public were inextricably tied to accurate and reliable information on the true nature and degree of shortages. How reliable were the statistical energy data during the embargo? How reliable is the official and unofficial statistical information on the petroleum industry today? Were the inconvenience and actual emergencies endured by the public in 1973/7H and again in 1979, with another foreign production disruption, worse than was really necessary? These are soe of the guestions that have been raised lately due to charges that the Government and the petroleum industry may be furnishing inaccurate and/or misleading oil production, supply, and import statistics. fiany sources, public and private, collect and disseminate energy-related statistics. Unfortunately, few of them agree or use standard methods of calculating the petroleum reserve base. The government itself relies on at least several sources in gathering petroleum and petroleum product availability information. when the various sources disagree on terminology, as in domestic oil resources, for example, different interpretations in this category alone arise. when preliminary figures are updated, this often significantly changes an earlier perception of the supply situation. Petroleum companies audit their inventories at all stages of production, ‘nth for their own records and to furnish data for the Government's composite «apply and production data. These procedures are required by law and depended upon by the Government as a primary source of current information for both regulation and data-keeping. Industry reports are furnished, directly or indirectly, primarily to the Energy Information Administration of the Department of Energy. CRS— 2 IB79106 UPDATE-O7/31/80 §1lJ13.B§l..LE.1I9B.l_5Ail9..1.!.§QQ§§.§§_.lEH_THE FEDERAL-§9.!§.13l§..1!I within the Federal Government, the major primary sources of basic energy data are the Department of Energy, the Department of the Interior (the Geological Survey). and the Central Intelligence Agency. The Bureau of the Census in the Commerce Department provides import—export statistics and the Transportation Department generates highway-related energy statistics. Qeeerraent of Energ2;__§n2r91-;2£222§:i9n-AQ2in;§:reLi9u-J§l-L The EIA is established in section 205 of the Department of Energy Organization Act (P.L. 95-91). It is intended by that Act to establish in the EIA a comprehensive Federal energy information capability. The EIA is charged with "carrying out a central, comprehensive, and unified energy data and information program which will collect, evaluate, assemble, analyze, and disseminate data and information which is relevant to energy resource reserves, energy production, demand, and technology, and related economic and statistical information, or which is relevant to the adequacy of energy resources to meet demands in the near and longer term future for the Nation's economic and social needs."w Procedures for acquiring information from energy companies are spelled out in this Act and in other authorities inherited .by DOE in the Federal Energy Administration Act of 1970, and others. The EIA obtains data and information from many sources, including numerous government and non—government organizations, through surveys, contract arrangements, and various reporting techniques. Its FY80 budget is $87,273,000, includin( $52,712,000 in contract funds. Authorized permanent personnel are 815. The EIA is organized in six major branches to carry out its mandate: -- The Assistant Administrator for Energy Data Operations is charged with managing and operatingi EIA's data—gathering and processing systems, generating regular statistical reports, collecting and maintaining energy data, and interpreting energy statistics. Among the regular recurring reports compiled and published by this office are the §gg§hly_Eng;gy_ ggyieg, §IA-922r2erl1-§e29r2-$9- §2n9;e§§;_. E22291 Infermatign. Aeuzhlz- Eexrelenn §te22§-Ee29rs. !;uLer-§nerq1_ Data Bulletin. and Einensiel- §§2:;§L;9§- 9: §le§rris.Q2;;;t;e§_2nQ ;nser§2a§e-!§:u£el_§e§_£i2el;ne_§9m2en;2§; The FY80 budget is $13,u52,ooo, including contract funds of $8,108,000. Authorized permanent personnel are 228. -— The Assistant Administrator for Applied Analysis manages major analytical programs of the EIA, and prepares special requested projections required by the Department of Energy and the Congress. Its programs include economic and integrative analyses, and operation of applied analysis models. The FY80 budget is $11,010,000, including contract funds of $2,951,000. Authorized permanent personnel are 181. -- The Assistant Administrator for Energy Information Validation is charged with ensuring the quality of EIA statistics, analyses and forecasts, including the verification of information provided to EIA by industry and other sources. Its FY80 budget is $13,273,000, including $10,346,000 i contract funds. Authorized permanent personnel are 63. -- The Assistant Administrator for Energy Systems Support is responsible for providing data support for the regulatory functions of the Federal Energy CRS- 3 IB79106 UPDATE-O7/31/80 Regulatory Commission (FERC) and the Economic Regulatory Administration ;ERA). Included in its functions is providing survey design and data standards to ensure consistency and quality of data collected by energy organizations. The FY80 budget is $26,484,000, including $18,105,000 in contract funds. Authorized permanent personnel are 181. -- The Assistant Administrator for Program Development is responsible for developing and implementing major, high-priority energy data systems. The five projects now underway in this office are the National Energy Information System, the Financial Reporting System, the Oil and Gas Information System, the Consumption Data System, and the Energy Emergency Management Information System. Its FY80 budget is $16,180,000, including $12,535,000 in contract funds. Authorized permanent personnel are 87. - The Office of Energy Information Services operates the National Energy Information Center and the Energy Information Administration Clearinghouse in order to provide information and assistance to the public and users throughout the Government and private sectors. It also provides support of regional and State requirements for energy information exchanges. Its FY60 budget is $1,870,000, including $667,000 in contract funds. Authorized permanent personnel are 28. The DOE Act established a Professional Audit Review Team (PART) to evaluate the activities of the EIA. The 1979 PART report discusses several areas in which deficiencies are evident in EIA procedures and activities. The modeling systems and the verification of data are criticized, and additional actions needed to establish an effective national energy .nformation system are described in this report. The EIA has succeeded to a considerable extent in marshalling divergent statistical sources and presenting unified monthly and annual supply and production information. However, difficulties still arise with respect to the Energy Information Administrationls reliance on outside sources for its statistics.. As yet, no internal Department.of Energy independent mechanism has been able to centralize statistics collection within the agency. A 1979 report "Activities of the Energy Information Administration" by the Professional Audit Review Team, led by the GAO member, confirmed the continuation of problems identified in a study by GAO in 1976: -- voluntary vs. mandatory reporting of data; -- credibility of data; -- confidentiality of data; -- timely reporting of data; -- data definitions; —- adequacy and completeness of data; -- analysis of data. The EIA is intended to have considerable autonomy within the Department in order to assure that it is not "guided" by policy determinations in its collection of data and its analysis. ;£EQ£E!§EE-Q§-§9§£QI£..QEQ§£-2illé$QB§ Other offices and divisions within the DOE also need, gather, and publish various kinds of energy information. International energy indicators are published under the auspices of the Assistant Secretary for International CRS- 4 IB79106 UPDATE-O7/31/80 Affairs. Biomedical research done under the Assistant Secretary for Environment generates data on low-level radiation effects associated wit} nuclear power production. Cooperation with the U.S. Geological Survey tt collect and analyze fossil fuel resource data is carried out by the fossil fuels office under the Assistant Secretary for Energy Technology. other offices and divisions in DOE also have programs such as these involving data and information. At present, the interaction of these other offices, and feedback systems with the EIA, appear to lack the comprehensive approach intended when the BIA was established, according to observers both outside and within DOE. G 2eEart!ent-9£-lDt€Fi°F= U-§ §€°l2QiE§l.§E£!§1.JQ§§§L Two divisions of the USGS collect basic energy data. The Conservation Division collects data on specific tracts and areas on Federal lands and the Outer Continental Shelf in order to evaluate the value of the resources to be leased on them. The Conservation Division activities are geared primarily to the leasing process. The Geologic Division, on the other hand, has general data collection, mapping, and resource assessment activities which are aimed at the collection of basic energy resource data and information. The Office of Energy Resources in the division collects data on undiscovered reserves both on public and private lands for coal, oil, gas, uranium, and others. Geothermal resources are assessed by the geochemistry section. Undiscovered reserves are those which are assessed through study of geologic structure and other indications, other than actual drilling and.exploration. The Geologic Division conducts studies and activities in conjunction with and in cooperation with the Department of Energy. Most are for the fossil fuels and nuclear energy research programs in DOE. Systematic data are collected on coal, and USGS maintains the National Coal Resources Data System. Proven reserves data are not collected by USGS. These have been assessed annually by energy industry scientists through efforts of the American ‘Gas Association, the American Petroleum Association, and the Canadian Petroleum Association. However, USGS and DOE make use of data from these sources and play a role in verifying and analyzing these data. §e2:r2;-;nrell;g§2§e-Ag2n21_J§IAL The CIA maintains in its National Foreign Assessment Center an extensive energy statistics collection program on foreign energy resources production, exploration, reserves, and imports and exports. It issues ea bi-weekly compilation of this information, entitled the International Energy Statistical Review. All the information is in charts or tables; no narrative or analysis is provided. This information is a mainstay of data on foreign energy sources for the State Department, the Department of Energy's EIA and its international operations, and other agencies. In addition, the CIA circulates a classified report each week tha provides analysis and assessments of this information. This is circulated to relevant offices in DOE, Department of State, and others. CRS- 5 IB79106 UPDATE-O7/31/80 2222:2222: 9: Q masts = _Bureau of the Ceneue Another primary source of energy information is in the Foreign Trade Division of the Bureau of the Census. This office is responsible for gathering statistics on the physical movements of commodities, among them energy resources. Imports and exports are documents through cooperation with the U.S. Customs service, and 15 monthly reports cover different aspects of commodity imports and exports. Energy resources such as oil and_ gas are among those reported upon. These Census Bureau data are used by the DOE's Energy Information Administration, the State Department, and others inside and outside the Government. Also within the Department of Commerce, the Office of International Economic Research of the International Trade Statistics Administration obtains data from the Census Bureau. It provides additional analysis and disseminates resulting energy information to user groups and the public. The National Technical Information Service (NTIS) in the Commerce Department collects and is the central public source for reports and analyses from Federal agencies, their contractors and grantees, and special technology groups. This includes reports from all of the sources listed here as well as from numerous others. Interested users can receive systematic notification of all energy reports or energy reports in limited areas of interest. A -e2§r§2e2s-9£-§iate The focal point in the Department of State for energy in international relations and foreign negotiations is the Office of Fuels and Energy under the Deputy Assistant Secretary for International Resources and Food Policy, in the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Economic and Business Affairs. The Office of Fuels and Energy interacts with DOE on international energy policy and makes use of data from the Energy Department and the CIA. The State Department is mainly a user of data and information. However, the Combined Economic Reporting Program (CERP) collect selected information from key foreign missions all over the world and, where relevant, this information would contain energy data. There is a feedback system with CIA and DOE for such information. Department of Transportgtigg The Federal Highway Statistics Division of the Federal Highway Administration collects and is a basic source of data o use of gasoline in transportation and on automobile use of fuels. §n!ir92;e22al-2r9te2:i9n-Agene1.12251 The EPA does research on environmental effects of energy production echnologies and includes some research on methods to modify these technologies in order to reduce pollution effects. &e2e22-2£2hlem§-2ith Use of §gerg1_2asa CRS- 6 IB79106 UPDATE-OT/31/80 The spring of 1979 petroleum product shortage, reportedly caused to large degree by the interruption of crude oil supply from revolution-torn Iran, focused national attention on the need. for accurate and independent information from one central reporting source. At different times over approximately a seven-month period, varying estimates were made by Government and private sources on the shortfall of crude oil and petroleum products and the movement of oil through all phases of the production systems. Although it was assumed that there was a substantial decline in petroleum availability during the spring, recent industry figures show that U.S. oil firms were importing 9% more crude oil than they did over the same period in 1978. Also, worldwide oil production was up 5.8% for the first six months of 1979, according to a report from the American Petroleum Institute. Company records now show an increase of 385 million barrels in oil imports for the first five months of 1979 compared to 1978. That much additional crude should have supplied an additional full three weeks‘ supply of gasoline to motorists over the summer months at current levels of use. Department of Energy figures, which were the basis for recent Federal actions, including the allocation system of restricted gasoline allotments to dealers and State programs of odd-even rationing and other conservation measures, were in basic disagreement with industry's petroelum supply figures. - On February 7, Secretary of Energy Schlesinger told the Senate Energy Committee that the Iran shutdown would reduce oil imports by 500,000 barrels per day. And in a special report to the President released recently, DOE said that imports in February through May this year increased by only 3.3% over last year. Despite the apparent contradiction between the Department of Energy and industry on recent supply statistics, both parties agree that a shortfall relative to demand of some magnitude existed due to the reduction of Iran imports. Inconsistencies such as this are an example of the differences in statistical information provided by different sources. The question is suggested: was there enough of a shortfall to justify the Government intervention in the market that took place?’ A related problem suggested by survey research findings that the American public is suspicious of the authenticity of aspects of the energy crisis (See IB79082 -- “Gasoline: Public Opinion on the Shortage“). Emergency decisions are presumably made in the context of the best information available at the time of decision. The record suggests in this case that a better effort could have been made to coordinate energy information and, thus, avoid unnecessary actions designed to alleviate an emergency that may not have existed to the extent presumed. I_».e.=9;1.s.-.l.2 tive_Pro12o§a1s.9n_15:ner91.In1:2r;I;-:c.i2n Statistical shortcomings such as those described above have spawned recent legislative proposals to strengthen the original mandate of the Energ; Information Administration. A currently pending House Resolution would have the EIA collect more raw data rather than depend on the industry for information. CRS- 7 IB79106 UPDATE-O7/31/80 other proposals would consolidate more of the energy related statistics, .03 kept in non-DOE sources, under major Cabinet-level jurisdiction or transfer them to the Department of Energy, adding more diversity to EIA*s functions. LEGISLATION H.Con.Res. 128 Expresses the sense of the Congress that the Department of Energy must expedite and strengthen its efforts to verify energy information in order to be fully independent of industry statistics. H.J.Res. 378 Requires each importer, producer, refiner, distributor and supplier of crude oil or refined petroelum products to submit monthly reports to the Secretary of Energy on its total refining capacity, the percentage of such capacity currently utilized, its crude oil supplies, the location of such supplies, and its inventory of refined petroleum products. Directs the Secretary to publish such information. H.Res. 291 Directs the President to furnish to the House of Representatives certain information related to the current oil situation. Reported adversely to the ouse from the Committee on Interstate and Foreign Commerce on June 11, 1979. Called up by unanimous consent in the House on June 15, 1979. Passed House on June 15, 1979. S. 1601 Assures that the Department of Energy Organization Act collects and compiles sufficient and timely information from oil companies with which to monitor a steady supply of needed crude oil and derived products. 5. 1602 Provides for the appointment by the President of Special Investigator of Petroleum Fuels Shortages. 0.5. Congress. House. Committee on Interstate and Foreign Commerce. Subcommittee on Commerce. Information gathering problems of DOE's Energy Information Administration. Hearings, 96th Congress, 1st session, June 29, 1979. Washington, 0.3. Govt. Print. Off., 1979. 0.3. Congress. Senate. Committee on Energy and Natural Resources. The current energy supply situation: report from the Energy Information Administration. Hearings, 96th Congress, 1st session. June 1Q, 1979. Washington, 0.5- Govt. Print. Off., 1979. ----- Fiscal Year 1980 authorizations for energy regulatory CBS" 8 IE79106 UPDkTE~0?/31/80 and inioraation gathering functions or DOB. gaearings, doth Congress, lst session. Apr. 25 {and} 26; 397fi§g’ Washington, 9.3. Govt. Print. Oif., 1979. 3§-Q§2§_ARQ_§0H7§§551Q§éL-QQ§!§§E$§ 0.3. Congress. noose. Energy Data. Communication from the Secretary of Energy transmitting data on energy supplies. July 15, 1979. (96th Congress, fish session. House. Document no. 96-161) §§3Q§QLQ§X_Q£_§E§§?§ Q3/O0/79 -- Various announceients made or both record production and inports of petroleum during recent shortage. Prisary data supplied by APE“ 05/08/79 ~— The Professional Audit Feviei Tea: submitted its report on the evaluation of energy data collection and analysis activities of the Energy Information Administration or DOE. 36/25/79 '* The Nevada Legislation petitioned Congress urging repeal of laws allowing oil companies to withhold information on petroleum fuel inventories. Spring 79 -- Administration took steps to alleviate shortage in administrative action and legislative proposals. winter 78-79-- Iran announced cutoff of oil exports to 0.3. and West with continuing Iranian revolution. O8/00/77 -- DOE created out of need to centralize Federal energy policy and nanagement.functions. One division formed was the Energy Information ndainistration, to collect and disseminate energy data. 06/22/7% -- Energy supply and Environmental Coordination Act established a resources supply reporting system- O5/07/74 -- PEA Act of 1974 created broad authority for the Federal Energy Administration (FEE; to manage energy crisis and obtain industry information. 10/00/73 ~- Arab oil embargo began drastically cutting U.S. overseas supply of petroleum and creating emergency shortage effects throughout the economy and society. Kilgore, 3. Calvin and 6. Daniel Butter. Petroleum supply vulnerability, 1985 analysis memorandum. iasnington, 0.5. Energy Information Administration. 1979. 35 p. ens-~ 9 1379105 ElPDA‘.E.‘E-O 7/3e1»,z Professional‘k§§i£W3e#iewerean. Transnitted report on the evaluation df energy data collection ané analysis activities cf DOE Energy Information Afiuinistration. Hay 8, 1979. schanz, John. Oil and Gas Resources ~- fielcoxe to Uncertainty. Resources fer the Put1re,e Angust 1978. 8.3. Department oi Energy. Energy Infaraa£ion Adsinistraticn. Annual report to Congress, Y. I and II, 1979. ---~ Energy Information hdministxation. Energy eaergency management iniormaticn system» Washington, 1979. $16 p- ' LIBRARY OF WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY ST. LOUIS - MO.