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A PRESENTATION OF CAUSES
TENDING TO FIX THE POSITION OF THE
FUTURE GREAT CITY
OF THE WORLD
IN THE
CENTRAL PLAIN OF NORTH AMERICA:
SIIOWING THAT
THE CENTRE OF THE WORLD'S COMMERCE,,NOW REPRESENTED BY TIIE
CITY OF LONDON,
IS MOYING WESTWARD TO THE
CITY OF NEW       YORK,
AND THENCE, WITHIN. ONE HUNDRED YEARS, TO
THE BEST POSITION ON THE GREAT LAKES,
BY J. W. SCOTT.
SECOND EDITION (REVISED,)
1876




TOLEDO:
BLADE STEAM BOOK AND JOB PRINT.
Entered, according to Act of Congress, in the year 1868, by J. W. Scott, in the Clerk's
Office of the United States for the Northern District of Ohio.




EDITOR'S PREFACE.
QUITE a long introduction to a second edition of this pamphlet was
written a short time before the author's death, in December 1873, when he
was revising it for publication.  The original manuscript, however,
embraced so much matter that was contained in the pamphlet itself, that
the editor has thought it advisable to retain only so much of it as seemed
due in justice to the author's sentiment of pride in his theory: a theory
which he was, I believe, the first to broach, and, throughout a long life, to
maintain with an ability which has always been recognized, and a faith in
it that nothing could waver. Though his conclusions were at first deemed
too wild to be sound, and were laughed at by those who failed to follow
his reasoning, they were usually regarded as pretty well demonstrated by
those who did follow it. Now, these theories of city growth have become
staple thought among intelligent men, so that few persons of the present
day know how original and striking they were when projected in Mr.
Scott's writings more than forty years ago. Then, barely to suggest that
any interior city might some day become a metropolis, rivaling New
York, was thought too absurd a stretch of imagination to be entitled to
respect. The final conclusions reached by Mr. Scott, in this pamphlet, as
the result of his study of causes and effects which will fix the location of
the future greatest city, may seem in their special application quite as bold
to-day as his general theory concerning the power of interior trade did
forty years ago. Time alone can prove whether his last deductions are
less strongly based than the preliminary demonstrations.
In this edition of the pamphlet some matter has been omitted which
seemed not essential to the thread of the argument, or likely to embarrass
the ordinary reader by too much detail of statistical illustration. I have
also added some expressions, as well as some pages of my own, in the
body of the pamphlet, on the subject of cheap fuel as one of the primary
productions necessary to attract a dense population. This branch of the
argument was not overlooked by my father, but, through some unaccountable oversight, was not embraced in his argument as published in the first
edition of the pamphlet. I have taken the liberty to interject it, knowing
that it would meet the author's approbation were he living.
Toledo, January 15, 1876.                            F. J. S.




THE AUTHOR'S INTRODUCTION TO THE
SECOND      EDITION.
The second edition cf this pamphlet is intended to be the last of a
long series of papers from my pen, designed to call attention to the great
future development of the interior trade of our country, and especially to
its effect to produce great cities.
As long ago as 1828, pondering on the geographical claims of the
interior of our Continent to draw to it a great population, I reached the
conclusion that in it would grow up one or more of our largest cities,
exceeding all except New York. In 1832, in a small monthly published
by me in Norwalk, Ohio, I first made public this opinion with facts and
reasons in its support. In 1839, and afterwards, I published several papers
on the subject of Internal Trade, and its effect in the development of
cities, in the Resperian, a monthly, published by Wm. D. Gallagher and
Otway Curry, first in Columbus, O., and afterwards in Cincinnati. The
same subject was afterwards more fully treated by me in hiunt's eIrchanlts
Magcazine, of New York, through several volumes, but chiefly in volumes
eight and nine. Later, several articles on the subject were furnished to
De Boto's Reviewo. These articles opened up views at first altogether new,
and their novelty excited both ridicule and discussion.
In this pamphlet the author hopes to give the reader clear views of
what he believes to be the true theory of the growth of cities. His final
conclusions he expects to be received with incredulity or doubt. Of their
general soundness, however, he hopes sufficient facts and reasons are
furnished to bring conviction to careful and unbiassed readers.




THE GROWTH OF CITIES.
cITIES are organisms that grow up as naturally as men. They
develop where human faculties are most effective, and because these faculties can be more effective there than elsewhere.
Like men, too, they are mutually helpful. London could not
have grown to be what she is without the aid of Birmingham,
Manchester, Liverpool, and other great cities in her neighborhood
and in other parts of the world.  Proximity to these nas given
her, and sustained in her, more than one of the millions of her
people. On the other hand, London' has not failed to return to
her sister cities the full measure of benefits received from them.
As all the principal cities of the world contribute to the support
of London, so they all take tribute of her. Honest commerce
gives forth equal benefits, and no commerce that is not honest
can be permanently successful.
The earliest great cities were built by a race of men inferior to
our own, to-wit: the Mongolian Chinese.  Their means for
commercial operations-navigabie rivers and canals-though
imperfect, enabled them to centralize commerce so as to build up
cities containing a million or more of people; but, with insufficient unity of government and interest to draw commerce to one
great centre.  Subsequently, Caucasian and mixed races centralized the commerce of their several national dominions, on the
Tigris, Euphrates, Nile, Ganges, and other navigable rivers. These
were commercial centres, chiefly for the nations which made them
their capitals for, at that period, very little commerce between
nations existed. The early cities of the Mediterranean sea were
the first that were made centres of any considerable international




6
commerce; and this was chiefly confined to the waters of that
sea. In short, trade, in early times, was confined to very limited
regions. It was local and isolated.  Gradually, it has grown to
be more general, and its leading centres have become more populous and powerful, until, now, a centre for the commerce of the
whole world challenges discussion.
The invention of the mariner's compass united, in a measure,
the great continents, and brought all lands within the views of
commerce. The earth was sailed around, and all its prominent
characteristics became known. Slowly, at first, but faster and
faster, the productions of different climates and different conditions of people were brought to shipping ports and exchanged.
Now, the new and wonderful instrumentalities, steam and electric
telegraphs, are making all peoples into one commercial family, and
concentrating their commerce in great centres-as London, Paris,
and New York. It is a question of great interest whether one of
these is to be the acknowledged heart and brain? of the world's
commerce; giving to the word commerce its widest signification.
As yet commerce has not become organized as a complete unit,
and, therefore, has not a universally acknowledged central city;
though its development, within the last fifty years; has rapidly
tended to centralization in the Island of Britain and the city of
London. Paris is, and has long been, the acknowledged social
centre of the world, due to its supremacy in the elegant arts and
the amenities of high civilization.
Where will, probably, grow up the great cities of the future?
I say, probably, for new elements may come into the calculation
that are now unknown or unappreciated.
I shall assume that a city is an organism, springing from natural
laws as inevitably as any other organism, and governed, invariably,
in its origin and growth, by these laws. I shall also assume, and
endeavor to prove, that these cities are to be on the North American Continent, and not far distant from the centre of the industrial power of this continent, when well peopled and its resources
well developed, and in positions of easy access to commerce with
otheI peoples with whom we exchange productions.
The growth of a city is analogous to the growth of a man,




7
The first and greatest necessity of a human being is food. The
next is clothing; after which comes shelter and fuel. Food,
clothing, houses and fuel. These are the prime and essential requisites. There can be no civilized life without all of them.
But these are products of labor and skill. Where can labor and
skill be used to greatest advantage, in the production of those
necessities? The solution of this question will go far to fix a
natural location for a great city.
But there are other necessities of high civilization, without
which there can be no great city. There must be easy' communication between it and other industrious and populous communities; good navigable channels, and, in our day, good roadways over the land.  There needs be cheap and quick means of
transportation, in order to effect that facile interchange of commodities which sustains high civilization. In discussing the question of the location of the future greatest city, it will be assumed
that our continent will be settled by an industrious population,
and most densely inhabited where food and other primary needs
are most certainly attainable, and labor receives its best reward.
It is difficult for many persons to bring their minds to contemplate, as possible, a'future differing materially from the present
and the past.  It is only those who have studied the course of
human progress, and its tendency towards a more perfect society
and a more general union of races, in commercial operations and
social relations, who can appreciate, at their proper value, facts
and arguments that go to show results differing from, and greater
than any heretofore manifested. As men become more enlarged
in their views, and have a truer comprehension of the laws governing matter and mind, they become fitted to more extended
relations with their fellow-men. It is the same with societies and
nations. They have more and more points of friendly contact, so that tribes grow into nations, and nations are enlarged to
embrace all homogeneous races. As nations interact and mingle,
international amenities ripen into a feeling of brotherhood, so
that it is only following out the course of events to anticipate, as
the crowning result, one great centre-one city of the worldwhich shall be the acknowledged focus and radiating point of it;




8
wealth, intelligence and moral power. Such cities London and
Paris are striving to be, and, in a. qualified degree, are. They will
approach that condition, when, in a few short years, there shall be
communication by connecting telegraphy with all quarters of the
globe, so that people the most distant may hold daily intercourse
with each other. These cities, for a time, will remain the world's
acknowledged chief centres for thought and action, and with
increasing power.
But events in our time evolve rapidly, and especially in city
growth. In a period of no more than half a century, the western
movement of population and wealth, in one swelling tide, will
have increased the power of the chief city of the Western Continent to a degree enabling it to overshadow the greatest European
capitals. London and New York have each an established rate
of increase, as proved"by successive enumerations, in each decade
of the current century. London has grown at a rate that doubles
its number once in' forty years, commencing in r8oI. Carried
forward through three duplications, it exhibits the following
results: I8oI, 95~,863; 1841, 1,97,726; I88I, 3,835,452; 921,
7,670,904. New York, commencing in i8oo, with 60,489, has,
with its dependent suburbs, doubled its numbers, on an average,
in 15 years. Carrying that rate of increase up to 1920, its numbers will be i5,484,784. This will be considered an incredible
result. With present and improving means of communication,
the ability to grow and support great cities, as the country
becomes populous and rich, must be admitted. Even with present
means of transit, the outer boundaries of city and suburban residences extend tens of miles from the business centres of our
cities. A radius of fifty miles will not be too extended to embrace, before the end of the present century, the people drawing
their chief support from great cities. Within two hours' time all
within that radius may be carried to or from the chief business
centre and their homes; most of them within one hour.  There
is nothing, therefore, in the gwreatness of this izumber, to warrant
distrust of its attainment. If its growth shall be checked, it will
not be because our cities, generally, will receive a smaller proportion of our population than heretofore. It were easy to prove
that the proportion will be increased. If New York fails of its




9
proportionate growth, it can only be because western rivals may
gain at her expense.
The movement of men and money, in a constantly broadening
and deepening current, from the Atlantic States, westward, into
the interior of our continent, compels us to anticipate a successful
rival, to grow up within that broad plain embracing the basins of
the St. Lawrence and Mississippi, and the country north of them.
We are also compelled, by the evidences furnished during forty
years, of the power of lake cities to concentrate the commerce of
the great plain, to believe them destined to secure the location of
the great interior city. More and more they have drawn trade
from the great river valleys of the plain, proving the superiority of
their position to that of cities on the borders of the great rivers.
The general direction of the lakes being east and west, and so in
the line of the great commerce of the world, gives the cities on
their borders, placed in or near this line, very great advantages
over all others.
There is a philosophy of climatical influence, on the character
of man, animals and plants which can be well developed, exemplified and illustrated, only, by a familiar knowledge of these
departments of natural history. As I have not that knowledge, I
will only express my belief that the best possible climate, for the
attainment of their highest and best characteristics, is that which
requires the exertion of their utmost powers to overcome the
obstacles which it interposes to their development, in a region
where the natural capabilities of the earth are such as to give the
stimulus of success to reward such exertion. Caucasian man has
proved that climate, for himself, and the animals and plants promotive of his highest good, to be within a few degrees of the
annual isotherm of 50 degrees Fahrenheit.
THE ZONE OF GREAT CITIES.
Disturnell, the geographer, in a paper read before the American
Geographical and Statistical Society, of New York, in I860, on
the influence of climate, on the growth of cities, gives a list of
cities, with their population, in different zones of climate. In the
middle zone, having a mean annual temperature between 48 and




IO0
52 degrees, Fahrenheit, his list embraces most of the great cities
of the world, having an aggregate population of 9,233,984. His
list of cities in the northern zone, having a mean annual temperature between 40 and 48 degrees, Fahrenheit, embraces an aggregate population of 2,819,418; and in the warmer zone, having
a mean annual temperature between 52 and 60 degrees Fahrenheit, an aggregate of 5,850,000. The zone of temperature between
48 and 52 degrees is a narrow belt, which passes through
Astrachan, Odessa, Vienna, near Paris, through London, Liverpool, Dublin, New York, near the south end of Lakes Erie and
Michigan, through Omaha, on the Missouri, and bearing south
on the elevated plateau of the continent, thence takes a northwest direction to the Pacific, at the south end of Van Couver's
Island. This zone is much wider in central and Western Europe,
and on the Pacific coast, than elsewhere. Its course through
Asia is nearly on a line of latitude of Pekin, and is not wide.
The cities of the warm zones are making a slower growth than
those of the coldest zone; but those in the middle temperate
zone are growing much faster than either of the others. For example: London is put down at 2,357,765, and now contains over
3,250,000. Paris is set down at 1,153,262, whereas a recent enumeration gives it over 2,00o,000. Chicago is set down at ioo,ooo,
and now has three times that number. New York and Brooklyn
are set down together at 835,000, whereas they number at least
more than r,350,0ooo. Other cities in this list have shown a
similar growth. It will not be an over-estimate of this favorite
city belt to set down its pre-sent city population at 20,000,000.
This is greater than the city population of all the rest of the
world, which is approximately estimated as follows:
In the Cold Zone, north of an average of 50 degrees, Fahrenheit.........  4,000,000
In the Warm Zone, south of an average of 50 degrees, Fahrenheit......... 8,ooo,ooo
In the Middle Zone, between the above lines.............................. 20,000,000
The current of population follows, nearly, lines of equal temperature, with a tendency to move from excesses of heat and cold
toward the zone of 50 degrees Fahrenheit, mean annual temperature. This zone, according to Disturnell, has a mean width of
* By the census of 1870 New York and its suburbs, within a radius of twenty miles, contained a population of more than I,650,ooo.




less than two hundred miles. Its north boundary line in the
United States passes through or near the cities of Albany, Detroit,
and Chicago, and thence westerly on a line north of west to Vancouver's Island on the Pacific. The south boundary line, in
North America, passes through or near the following places:
Philadelphia; Columbus, Ohio; Springfield, Illinois; St. Joseph,
Missouri; Santa Fe, Great Salt Lake, Dalles, Astoria.       In
Europe, its north line passes, from  a point a little north of the
Caspian Sea, westward, through the cities of Posen, Berlin, Ham.
burg, Newcastle, Glasgow, and Belfast.   Its south line passes
westward from the outlet of the Sea of Asof, near Buda, Munich,
and Orleans, to the Atlantic, at Brest, in France.
I give * below figures made up from the United States census of
I860, exhibiting the operation of the power of climate on city
growth, within the belt embraced within the annual isotherm of
48 and 52 degrees Fahrenheit. This zone, varying in width from
I20 to 200 miles, embraces but a small portion of our country,
but it concentrates within its limits a much greater city population than all the broad expanse on both sides of it.
The power of climate to control human movements and habitation, and to concentrate population in the region best adapted to
the development of the best energies of man, is manifested more
and more as knowledge extends, and the means to remove to such
best region, become more and more ample. The tide of human
movement is westward. It has culminated, or is culminating, in
Europe, on its extreme western verge, in the middle climate zone,
in the great cities of England, Germany and France. New York,
Philadelphia, Buffalo, Cleveland, Toledo, Detroit, Chicago, Davenport, St. Joseph, Omaha and Denver are on the route of its future
movement. This fact may be of great importance to persons
seeking new homes.
~ Sum of the population of cities of over o0,ooo, by the census of
Within the belt above described.............................  4,3T2,700
86c ) Out of the  belt, north  and south...............................  1961,729
Tc Within the belt...........................................  6,306,781
I87c..  Out of the belt, north and south, including Canadas and California. 2,606,052
It will be seen that the census of 1870, published since Mr. Scott wrote the above, shows that
an iner.easing percentage of the city population of the United States and the Canadas is embraced in this isothermal belt.-ED.




12
There has been a prevailing error respecting the relative merits
of climates, in the production and modification of the best plants
and animals for the use of man, and, by their use, of the best race
of men. Many suppose an equable climate, having the least
deviation from a uniform temperature, is best for man and the
productions which go to make up human growth and social development. Others believe a warm climate with moderate variations of temperature most favorable to human happiness and
political progress-a climate existing chiefly between the tropics
and latitude 38.
t~
In the infancy of society, these views were more nearly correct
than they are now. In the early stages of progress from a savage
towards a civilized condition, a semi-tropical climate was, evidently, best calculated to enable the first steps to be taken towards
a civilized condition. Tropical man, near the ocean level, lived
with little need of exertion of body or mind. Fruit, growing
without his labor or care, supplied him with food; clothing was
not needed to guard him against cold. Little labor was required
to give him all needed shelter. And so, there being no necessity
to labor, or to invent, he lived, and he still lives, in a condition
but a few grades above the beasts which surround hina' The
man of the warm climate, outside of the tropics, has need of more
exertion and contrivance to save him from the pains of hunger
and cold, and so he, from necessity, developes more active faculties, and becomes more of a man than the man of the tropics;
yet a moderate amount of exertion and contrivance serves his
turn, and he progresses slowly towards a higher civilization.
Next, above the man of a warm climate, comes the man of higher
latitudes, and countries but little, elevated above the ocean level.
His climate is, comparatively, equable, but has enough of the
cold of winter and the heats of summer to make it necessary for
him to put forth a large measure of activity and contrivance to
keep comfortably fed, clothed and sheltered. The man of northwestern Europe has made greater advances in power, by virtue of
his necessities, and the blessings resulting from them, than the
man of the lower latitudes, whose wants are less numerous and
urgent. But he is not the best possible man. There is a climate
which has the capacity to produce a better man. That climate is




13
characterized by Humboldt, as an excessive climate: and, also, as
a continental climate. It is a climate of extremes of heat and
cold, of very hot summers and very cold winters, accumulating
during the cold of winter a nervous susceptibility in animals, and
something analogous in plants, which enhances the effect of the
great summer heat, in the evolution of vegetable growth and of
animal activity and power. It is believed to be historically true
that the best race of man, and the plants and animals best adapted
to maintain his superiority, originated in a continental climate,
having a great range of temperature. When he has changed his
residence and made a new home, in hot or equable climates, he
has, uniformly, deteriorated in character, and it has been, only,
when he has migrated to a climate like that of his origin that he
has made the best progress in civilization and true manhood.
The elevated regions of this excessive climate, in the middle latitudes, are believed to be the best for this race of men. North
America affords a larger area appropriate for the development of
this race than the Eastern Continent. In this continent will be
brought together the largest and most active portion of this race,
and on its great interior plain will grow up the greatest aggregation, the greatest nation, the noblest empire of man, and the
greatest city. Its climate gives the greatest nervous and muscular
power to man, and the animals best adapted to his wants. It
enables him to grow the greatest variety of best cereals, the best
fruits, and the best animals for his use, as well as the best material
for his clothing and shelter. No other region of the globe, of like
extent, can equal it, in its capacity to produce the best fruits
adapted to the health and enjoyment of the best race of men.
Humboldt, in his " Aspects of Nature," testifies to the superiority
of the grape grown near Astrachan, in the excessive climate of
eastern Europe, near latitude 46 degrees, over the best table
grapes of Spain, Italy and France. Some of the best apples and
pears in the world, originating in accidental seedlings due to the
climate, are grown in the United States. There are small portions of interior Europe and Asia in which the continental climate
may equal, in life-giving power, the best portions of the United
States, but they are less favorably placed for commerce, external
and internal; and they live under inferior political organizations.




I4
The best climate and soil for the best race of men in North
America are, in extent,ample for the support of all of that race
now living, and all its augmenting numbers for centuries to come.
It contains, also, climates and soils adapted to the constitutions
of other and inferior races. The black race not only has health
and a rapid increase, in the warmest portions, but it improves, in
moral and physical condition; and there are considerable sections
where Asiatics, Mongolian and Malay, will probably find a convenient resting-place. The rapid movement, in the direction of
unity of commerce among the human family, is not inconsistent
with diversity of race, location and occupation, but is in accordance with them. Two modern agents-steam and electricitygreatly favor the movement, and we may confidently expect, not
only a great extension and improvement of these agents, but the
introduction of others of still greater potency. More than ever
before, the near future is pregnant with great events. Even the
next generation may cease to wonder at the advances, in power,
of their fathers, in the much greater progress of their own time.
With the present agencies, and in the present inchoate condition of the unitary progress of the world's commerce, London
comes nearer being its heart and brain than any other city. Until
New York becomes more populous and rich, she cannot hope to
give the chief impulse to the world's commerce. But, so surely
as the laws of nature vindicate themselves, in the production of
their recognized effects, so surely will New York supersede London. Before the year of grace, 900oo, thirty-two years from this
time (I868), the writer believes that New York will commence her
career as the world's central city.
How long will it be before one or more of her western children
will dispute her supremacy and dethrone her?
Let us calculate the progress of the western movement of
empire. Let us estimate the increase of population and wealth,
as it flows westward, and learn, approximately, where will be the
centre of its power in 50 years, in 75 years, in Ioo years.
As a basis of this calculation it may be well to note some principles and facts, either self-evident or too well established to need
proof.




15
Commerce will meet to exchange equivalent values and tonnage at
the place most accessible and convenient.
This principle applies as well to continents as to neighborhoods.
It is a fact that home commerce, in every civilized nation, is many
times more important and multiplied, in its transactions, than
foreign commerce. This predominance, in amount and value, in
countries of great extent and diversified productions, is great in
proportion to range of climate and capacity to produce articles
of commerce, and the natural and artificial facilities for interior
transport; and the predominance increases with the increase of
civilization and accumulated wealth.
Iet us apply these principles.
It is a well-established fact that the centre of industrial power,
as well as the centre of population, of North America, is moving
steadily and inevitably westward of the former and present location; and it can hardly be doubted that it will continue to move
in that direction until it shall have approached the centre of the
natural productive power of the continent, and of its external
relations.
It has not been without controlling natural laws that London
has become the principal centre of the world's commerce. If the
various means of transportation are considered, it will be found
that it is more convenient for the meeting of commercial products exportable from all parts of the commercial world, than
any other city; that is to say, it is more nearly central to the
present commercial power of the world than any other great city.
It is more central to the home commerce of the United Kingdom
than any other commodious port. This is a great advantage, for
the home trade of the British nation is very great; many times
greater than its foreign commerce. It is central between the
commerce of the Eastern and Western Continents, considering
how greatly the magnitude of that of the Eastern exceeds that of
the Western.
Will it remain central?
There was a time when the island of Britain was on the extreme
western verge of civilization and commerce; and, as said by
Virgil, divided from the whole world besides. Since that time




i6
the tide of men and commerce has moved steadily westward.
That tide, in constantly increasing volume and rapidity of flow,
continues to move westward. This continuing, the certainty of
its reaching a better centre of commercial power than London
seems inevitable. But, to this end, it must cross the Atlantic.
What are the indications that it will, on this side, find its destined
place? If it is admitted that London must be superseded, what
intelligent man will hesitate to name New York as the successful
rival? Forty years ago-in 1830-London, with its numerous
suburbs, contained about a million and a half of people. It has
doubled its population since, making its period of duplication
about forty years. New York, with its dependent population included, by-which I mean those supported by the business of New
York, and having their residence in suburban places near it, as
well as in its corporate limits, will, in I870, have a population
greater than London in 1830. New York appears to have alaw of
growth which doubles its population in from fourteen to sixteen
years. If we allow London a future growth of two per cent. a
year, and New York of five per cent., on a population of three
million for the former, and half that number for the latter, the
result will be in 1885, fifteen years from this time, that London
will contain, in round numbers, four millions. New York will
then contain over three millions. Allowing the same rate of
increase up to 1900, the two cities will be nearly equal,. New
York numbering 4,849,387, and London 4,823,5I4. The United
States, at that time, will contain over seventy millions of people;
and the British Colonies, bordering the States on the north, will
contain some ten millions.  Together eighty millions.  Long
before that year Eastern Asia, embracing the great Empires of
China and Japan, with all the coasts of the North Pacific Ocean,
will have become practically nearer to New York than to London
by means of railways across the American Continent.
The centre of commercial power moving westward will,, somewhere, in time, be arrested. It will find a resting-place in North
America; for it is not to be supposed it will, in its westward
course, cross the Pacific to the inferior races of Eastern Asia.
Nor is it likely to reach and make a lodgment at any port on our
Pacific coast  The vast arid and mountainous regions of the




17
western half of the continent, and the unequaled extent of fertile
ands on the eastern half, fix its location, inevitably, on the latter.
Nill New York, then, be the permanent emporium    of North
America and the world; or will its ultimate resting-place be
Westward of her position? The writer believes, after giving New
York the leadership over London, the final supremacy among the
world's cities, will settle on a place by the shore of one ot the
great lakes, central to the greatest industrial and commercial
capabilities, and the greatest extent of fertile lands in the North
Temperate Zone of the Globe.
But before entering on the consideration of the claims of an
interior city to become, at some future day, the successful rival of
New York, as the chief centre of the world's commerce, it will be
in order to inquire on what grounds, beside the more rapid
growth of New York in the past, it is claimed that it will become
greater than London.
The main, the controlling reason is that it is getting an increasingly larger home trade than London, because our home
population, now greater, is increasing nearly three times as fast.
It has been demonstrated, on our railway lines, that the waytraffic between city and city, and station and station, in all the
settled portions of lines of any considerable extent, greatly preponderates, in amount and profit, over the through traffic, even
where the termini are great gathering points. of commerce. No
statistics at hand enable me to state what are the proportions of
the home trade of New York compared with its foreign commerce, or what proportion of its population is supported by the
home trade, and what portion by foreign. If we estimate the
proportion of the former to the latter as fifteen to one it will not
be overstated. If this is so, then the forty-five millions of people
in the United States and British Provinces, making New York
their principal commercial metropolis, will be equal, for advancing
its growth, to six hundred millions of outsiders living in foreign
lands. It is because population and wealth increase much faster
in our. country than in England, and, in consequence, its home
trade increases more rapidly, that New York grows faster than
London, and not because it secures a greater amount of foreign
2




i8
commerce; for, in that respect, London is yet far ahead of New
York.
The indigenous commerce of the United Kingdom, which
centres in London, may now be nearly as great as that of our
States centreing in New York, as the number of people sustaining
it is about in the proportion of 30 to 38. The industry of our
people, however, is more productive than that of the people of
the United Kingdom, as statistics show a duplication of our
wealth in less than ten years, which is about half the time required for doubling theirs.
In the short period of thirty years allowed New York to become more populous than London, our numbers, now thirty-eight
millions, will have augmented to over seventy-five millions; while
the United Kingdom will only, at its normal rate of increase,
grow up from thirty millions to less than forty millions. Before
the end of that period the British Provinces, beyond our
north boundary, will have become a part of our commercial system, if not a component part of our nation. These PIovinces
will then contain nearly ten millions of very industrious, hardy
and intelligent inhabitants, swelling our number for the home
trade to eighty millions. Surely, in the light of all these considerations, it is not presumptuous or premature to forecast the superiority of New York to London, and its claim, in 900o, to be,
more than any other city, the heart and brain of the commercial
world. That a city of that character will, in the regular course of
human events, exist, seems to me certain. That it will be developed on the Continent of North America, and, finally, rest on the
best point on the border of one of our great lakes, seems to me
equally certain.
The Continent of North America has a remarkable depression
between the Appelachian Mountains, on the east, and the Rocky
Mountain ranges, on the west, and extending from the Gulf of
Mexico, on the south, to the Arctic Sea, on the north. This constitutes t/Se great interior plain of the Continent, and embraces
most of the elements provided by nature to sustain the bulk of the
population hereafter to inhabit the Continent. In all its immense
length and breadth it is interrupted by no mountain barrier, and




I9
has, within its eastern portion, no barren waste. Almost everywhere it is fertile and well-watered. To enable commerce among
its people to be more rapid and cheap, it is provided with navigable rivers and lakes to the extent of tens of thousands of miles,
and its unobstructed surface may be traversed everywhere by
cheaply-made railroads.
The first and greatest necessity of man is food. At what point
or points in the interior plain of North America, can this be obtained, in quantity to feed a large city, at the cheapest rate? It
seems to be proved, by the results of the last twenty-five years,
that the two most prominent of these points are Chicago and
Toledo; as these have been the primary gathering ports of the
greatest amounts of the most needful articles of food; and they
seem to have such commanding positions for commerce, interior
and exterior to our country, as to justify the claim to precedence
over all others. The annual receipts of breadstuffs at these cities,
for export, has, for several years, exceeded seventy millions of
bushels. At ten bushels to the individual, this would feed seven
million people.  That number, therefore, in addition to their
present population, could have been fed, in these cities, at less
cost than at any other place to which this grain was transported,
by all the cost of that transportation. New York, Boston, and other
Eastern cities, consumed and distributed most of these seventy
million bushels of food, and their various industries were sustained by it, at a cost of not less than ten million dollars beyond
its value, in these interior cities. If these industries could have
been carried on as well in Toledo and Chicago, as in New York
and Boston, those engaged in them, in those exterior cities, lost
the ten million, in consequence of not being at the place where
the cheapest bread could have been obtained. But, breadstuffs
form but one article of necessary food. Next to them comes
meat. It will be a moderate estimate to rate the animal food sent
annually from Chicago and Toledo, and consisting of cattle,
sheep, live hogs, dressed hogs, beef, pork, cut meats, lard, butter,
etc., as amply sufficient to supply the seven million people which
their surplus breadstuffs provides for. These articles, valued at
Chicago and Toledo, at forty-five million dollars, probably cost




20
the consumers, in the Eastern and European cities, not less than
fifty-five million, making another ten million added to the cost
of living in those cities that might have been saved, if the con —
sumers had lived in, or near, these lake cities. These and other
estimates are not designed to be'exact, but sufficiently so to
justify the position we take. Doubtless, many of the consumers,
in Eastern and European cities, can afford to pay this additional
cost of food, in consideration of the more perfect organization of
labor, and other advantages, in the older cities. If, then, we
modify our estimate of the loss of the seven million excrescent
population that are fed on far-fetched food, and make it half what
is set down above, so as to reduce it to ten million, the truth
will, probably, be understated.
According to Dr. Chalmers " the bulkiness of human food forms
one of those obstructions in the working of the economic machine
which tends to equalize the population of every country with its
food-producing power." Converting the corn and the grass crops
into animal food has, measurably, removed the obstacle of bulkiness to the extensive export, from the Lake States, to the more
expensively-fed population of other countries. -Still the fact
remains that the consumers of this animal food, and of the seventy
million bushels of our breadstuffs, in Great Britain and in our
Eastern States, year by year, must pay the cost of transportation,
and profits, from Chicago and Toledo, over and above what would
be the cost to them, if located in these cities. It is not too high
an estimate to put this additional cost at thirty-three and onethird per cent. The consumers inevitably gravitate to the great
centres, where food is gathered in, and there pursue their avocations to better advantage than in the cities which send far for
their food. It is important properly to estimate the rapid growth
of interior cities, and their ability, in consequence, to consume a
large portion of the surplus of agriculture which is now so great.
The lake cities, in position and climate, are unequaled for the
advantages they offer the immigrant. They are central to the
best regions of the earth for the growth of the best fruits, grains
and animals, to feed men; and, with these advantages, and a
healthful climate, may claim to be the nurseries of the densest




21
population. The food, as heretofore, will attract to it the mouths
to feed upon it. Labor will seek cheap food with good wages.
It has always done so. The lake cities, although but germs of
what they are to be, have exhibited, in their growth, the truth of
this principle. No other commercial centres have been so rapidly
peopled, in their early life. The attainment of cheap land and
cheap food has been the chief cause of this large increase.
Next to food, as a prime necessity, comes clothing. The chief
materials of this are wool, cotton, lint and leather, for all conditions of people. Wool and lint will be bought cheaper in the
lake cities than in the Atlantic cities, and raw cotton as cheaply,
in Chicago and Toledo, as at any leading eastern city. As the
operative will be fed on cheaper food, the manufacturers of these
articles will, for this and other reasons hereafter given, find these
lake cities a good location for factories. Situated centrally to
the best grass and grain growing region of the continent, Chicago
and Toledo will, naturally, concentrate in their markets a large
portion of the wool grown in the country. The production of
flax and hemp will, probably, in proportion to their use, be as
greatly within the commercial control of these cities as that of
wool, the climate and soil being well adapted to their growth.
Cotton will, probably, in a few years, be grown west of the Mississippi, as largely as east of it, and will find its primary markets, in
largest quantity, at Memphis, Vicksburg, New Orleans, and other
favorable points on the banks of the western tributaries of the
great river. From these cities it can be delivered to the manufacturer at Chicago and Toledo at less cost than to the manufacturing cities of New England and New York.
Next in importance to cheap food and clothing in determining
the movement of population, and the points where men will concentrate in greatest numbers, are cheap building materials and
cheap fuel. Where in the world has more wealth of lumber been
placed on the great highways of commerce than in the pine-lands
along all the shores of the great lakes? Where a finer region of
hard woods than stretches for hundreds of miles in all directions
from the west end of Lake Erie? Where is brick and lime
cheaper or stone more easy to quarry than everywhere upon the




22
borders of these lakes?     In short, where upon the globe can
human labor provide more cheaply all needful shelter for its
working hives? But in this zone of excessive temperature, cheap
building materials might not alone aid to fix the densest population upon it were fuel scarce.  Now in the early settlement of a
wooded country, cheap lumber implies cheap wood for fuel; and
long before the swelling tide of settlement could make this scarce
the geologist has indicated the existence of boundless stores of
coal all along the line of the favored zone of population into
which we have only to enter as into a cellar full-stored for us.
The coal-fields which     seem  destined  to supply the States
between the Ohio river and the lakes, are:
First, those of Pennsylvania, which, in quality and quantity,
and variety of qualities, are not excelled in the world.  No other
hard coals have been discovered in this country equal to the
anthracite coals of Pennsylvania.   By the Ohio river these coals
are delivered at the lowest rates along its shores.   A short railroad transit brings them to the free waters of the lakes.
Second, the great coal-field of the State of Ohio, stretching
from near its north-east corner to near its most southerly point,
and embracing at various points the most valuable and varied
qualities  of  bituminous   coals found   west of    Pennsylvania.
" Briar Hill" coal is a standard brand of this coal, and equally
valuable for making iron, or for making heat.      In places, as at
Straitsville and the Hocking Valley end of this field, the coal
occurs in beds of such thickness, excellence, and unequalled
facility for quarrying, that the miners are enabled to put it on
board cars at a cost twenty-five per cent. below the cost at any
other mines.*
Third, the coal-field of South Indiana, from which an excellent
quality of block coal has been obtained. It has entered into
effective competition with the Pennsylvania and Ohio coals only
in the immediate neighborhood of where it is quarried.         The
* In Vol. TT. of the State Geologist's Report on the Geology of Ohio, " the great vein" of
this coal-field is thus alluded to: "This is probably the most interesting and important of all
our coal seams. It attains greater thickness, occupies a wider area, and in its different outcrops and phases supplies a larger amount of good fuel than any other... South of the
national road this vein acquires such magnitude and excellence that it quite overshadows all
the other coal seams of the State."




23
cost of quarrying this coal will probably prevent its competing to
any great extent with the coals of Pennsylvania and Ohio.
Fourth, the coal-fields of Illinois, which do not develop, either
in quality or cheapness to compete, even in Chicago, with coals
that come from Pennsylvania and central Ohio.
Cleveland, which is shown by the census of 1870 to be nearer the
center of population (if we include the Canadian Dominion with
our own country) than any other large city, * has felt the impetus
to her manufactures by the receipt of cheap coal to an extraordinary degree. She draws her iron from Lake Superior, to the
north of us, and from interior mines south and southeast.  It has
been found more profitable to bring the coal to the lake shore to
meet the ores that come from various sources by water than to
ship the ores inland to meet the coal. So Cleveland has gained
heavily on Pittsburg as a point for manufacturing iron; first, for
the reason just stated, and secondly, because the facilities of
shipping the manufactured iron by water as well as by land give
the lake cities an additional advantage. This fact shows the
power of the lake towns to draw business from the interior towns
by means of the competition of the two rival systems of transportation by water and land; the lakes showing more power to produce this result than the rivers. Cleveland has possessed both
inherent and adventitious power to make the most of her advantage over Pittsburg. The adventitious power has been the capital
which her early reputation for beauty brought her by the influx of
wealthy business men from smaller surrounding towns, and the
large investment of that capital in the very valuable iron mines of
Lake Superior. That iron, and her cheap coal, have been the
most important factors in the rapid increase of her manufactures,
population and wealth. Her proximity to the oil fields, and the
immense development of the manufactures of that product have
also added very largely to her prosperity. In the oil trade she is
likely to retain her lead, as compared with any of the lake cities.
But in the manufactures which are built up by cheapest coal and
* The center of population of the United States alone by the census of I87o is shown to be
directly south of Toledo about 175 miles. Taking in the Canadas as a part of the great comnmercial system treated of by the author, would move the center of population to near Cleveland.




24
iron, in connection with the greatest facilities for the cheapest distribution of the msanufactured articles, she must slowly succumb to
such points as Toledo and Chicago. These cities have the same
water facilities for procuring iron ores; Toledo has the same
advantages of cheap coal, and both cities have superior advantages for the distribution by land of the manufactured products.
This advantage it needs but a glance at the map to perceive.
And when in addition it is observed that Toledo has artificial
water-ways, south and southwest by many hundred miles of canals,
as well as by a complete system of radiating railways, the advantage will appear more complete,
By rail the hard coals of Pennsylvania are nearer to Cleveland
than Toledo by 120 miles, and nearer to Cleveland than Chicago
by 350 miles, yet the fact that the anthracite coal supplies of all
three cities are mostly laid in during the season of navigation,
shows the essential power of the lakes to give the cities on their
borders an advantage over those which have not free waters to
connect their commerce; for by virtue of the grain and produce
which seek the water for cheap transportation eastward in the warm
season, a fleet of steam and sail vessels is in constant use to convey these products to Buffalo, Oswego and the St. Lawrence river.
These vessels, which can only be freighted to any great extent at
primary receiving points for bulky products, must seek return
freights. Now, it is well known that the shipments from an agricultural country like that west of Lake Erie are far more bulky
than the more valuable freights which are exchanged for them.
Therefore, cargoes which will fill up in ballast like coal are sought
and carried back from Buffalo to Toledo at mere nominal rates.
Thus the hard coals from Pennsylvania are laid down as cheaply in
Toledo, and almost as cheaply in Chicago as in Cleveland. In
soft or bituminous coals the latter city has had one clear advantage for the past fifteen years by her proximity to a very valuable
coal deposit south and southeast of her, for the shipment of which
she is the nearest port, and for its profitable use in manufactures
the nearest point which has a choice of water and land for the
distribution of its products.
The growth of the city' of Columbus, Ohio, as affected by the




25
opening of the coal mines of the counties southeast of her, and
the construction, but a few years since, of the Columbus & Hocking Valley Railroad to these mines, has been most suggestive of
the power of cheap coal to develop manufactures. But already
the very superior quality of that coal and the almost unequaled
facility its beds afford for cheap quarrying has developed the
necessity of an access to water-ways to widen the market for it
by its cheaper distribution. For that purpose a direct, almost
an air-line, railroad is now being built from Columbus to Toledo,
on grades that offer the minimum of impediment to cheap transportation. Another is projected and under way direct from the
Perry county mines to Toledo. With these roads completed,
Chicago, during the summer season, can be supplied with coal
shipped from the railroad companies docks at Toledo more cheaply
than by rail all the way from the mines. That coal must be cheaper
at the point from which it is shipped than at the port where it is
discharged is self-evident. Whichever way this coal may go by
rail from the mines to Chicago it must traverse from 150 to 200
miles more of rail track than to get it to the company's docks at
Toledo. No railway can carry coal per ton I50 miles as cheaply
as it can be carried from Toledo to Chicago by vessel during the
summer months.
But it may be suggested that Chicago is not dependent on the
Pennsylvania, or the Northern Ohio, or the Hocking Valley and
Straitsville coal fields for her supply. This is partly true and
partly not true. It is true that coal fields are being developed in
Southern Illinois and Indiana from which she has hoped to receive
a copious supply of cheap fuel. But it is not.true that their
quality has been such as to relieve her of the necessity of depending principally on coals shipped from Buffalo and Cleveland.
And it is a significant fact that all the railways leadinzg to Chicag-o
from Ozio carry coal past the coal fields of Ind1iana anid Illinois to
ttat city; and the railroads that traverse the coal fields of these latter
States do not bring any coal eastward.  Toledo, then, when her
direct coal roads are completed, may fairly claim to be stronger, by
virtue of cheaper fuel, than Chicago.
In alluding so much in detail to the power of the Pennsylvania




26
and Ohio coal fields to promote the prosperity of the ports of
Lake Erie, which are to be made their principal depots, it may be
proper to repeat that the varied good qualities of these coals, as
well as the vastness of the beds and their easy access for quarrying, is the conclusive reason why they push their way past the
coals of Indiana and Illinois. They not only embrace all the
qualities most essential for domestic use, and the ordinary uses in
manufacturing, but some of them can be used without cokeing in
the manufacture of iron, as tested with most satisfactory results
with the Hocking Valley coal in the iron furnaces of Columbus,
Ohio. Some of these coals are also among the best for making
gas.
If it shall be proved that the best qualities of coal are likely
to be permanently cheaper at Toledo than at Chicago, and
cheaper at the interior manufacturing centers east of Toledo than
in those west of Toledo, it will add a heavy weight of industrial
power on the side of Toledo.
As between Cleveland and Toledo, no advantage as to cheap
fuel can be claimed for the latter. They are simply alike in that
respect. It is by virtue of its position as a gathering and distributing point of exchange that Toledo's superiority is marked.
And it has one other natural advantage over Cleveland in its
twenty miles of water front on a broad river, protected from lake
storms and easy of access from the lake; while that city is
cramped in all its water commerce by the inconveniences of a
tortuous narrow river channel upon which business is done, or
else upon the dangerous outer docks of a tempestuous lake shore.
This advantage of dock room and sea room for vessels will alone
exercise a controlling influence in giving Toledo a steadily increasing power over the lake coal trade. It has another decided
advantage over its thrifty rival in being on the direct route, both
by water and railway, of the commerce between the Canadian
Dominion and our most populous Western St'ates. It is the inevitable focus of that trade.
Transportation for the productions of the earth, and for the
works of man, embraces all that can be claimed of progress for
the development of cities from barbarism to civilization. Trans



27
portation, by land and water, in the various modes now in use,
and hereafter to be brought into use, is the instrumentality which,
in connection with those already presented, will determine the
location of the future greatest city. Its location must have advantages for the construction and use of the best instruments for
transportation, by land and by water, in all directions. It must
be the most convenient place for the meeting of the greatest bulk
and amount of commodities, and the greatest number of people.
It will be where land and water transportation may conveniently
meet, aid, and compete with each other; and where the world's
commerce can make its exchanges with most equal advantage to
all lands, in proportion to their relative commercial importance.
The necessity for uniting land and water ways for commerce
narrows the question of locality to the great lakes and great rivers
of the North American plain. Which has the greater power to
control the direction of commerce? Assuredly commerce will tend
in greatest volume where the comipetition of the two systems is most
effective.
The lake waters have manifested the superiority of their transportation power by building cities on their borders more rapidly
than have the rivers. The two leading cities of the two systems
of water transportation, Chicago and St. Louis, increased in pop ulation, from i860 to I870, as follows: Chicago, i89,528-172 per
cent.; St. Louis, 150,091 —II per cent.
The five largest of our lake cities, Chicago, Buffalo, Cleveland,
Detroit, and Milwaukee numbered, in i860, 324,620; in 1870,
657,155.
The five largest river cities of the interior, St. Louis, Cincinnati,
Louisville, Pittsburgh, and Alleghany City, numbered, in i86o,
467,759; and in i870, 767,272.
Increase of lake cities, 332,535, being 102 per cent. Increase
of river cities, 299,513, being 60 per cent.
Previous census returns, since lake cities have had any commercial
importance, were not less favourable to them. And it may be borne
in mind, in connection with the relative percentage of growth between 1860 and 1870, that the river cities had a very great, though
transitory advantage, in being made, to a much greater extent than




28
their lake rivals, the depots and disbursing points for the vast
expenditures of the war of the rebellion. These expenditures in
many of these cities built up great manufacturing interests that
have become important factors in their continued prosperity.
Looking at permanent, and not at transitory, causes of growth,
the river cities, however noble the size they may attain, may now
be fairly ruled out of the list of final competitors for the highest
position. Of the lake cities Milwaukee and Detroit are evidently
barred out of the race by the superior power of position that
Chicago and Toledo occupy in relation to each of them, Toledo,
though the last to be ranked among the important cities of the
lakes, in consequence of the dense timber-land surroundings
which delayed her early growth, is now springing into the commercial arena with a strength of growth not surpassed in the
present decade by even Chicago.
The author believes that the lakes will attract to their borders
the densest population of the Continent. Instinctively people
love an expanse of water. They take pleasure in the sight; they
enjoy the fish in the catching and eating; they delight to breathe
the invigorating air purified by contact with its surface; they
profit by the cheapness of transportation from city to city along
the shores, and by the supply of fish-food grown without cost.
These lakes hold a central position in the most productive portion of the Continent. With the noble St. Lawrence outlet to
the Atlantic they extend westward one-third of the distance to
the Pacific. Their future commerce is of necessity to be intimately connected with that of Europe, with whose commerce we
can connect by water only. To' make this cheap, expeditious,
and dr-ect with the vast future population of this interior plain
will call forth all the inventive genius and practical skill of
Europe and America. More than half of all our foreign commerce is now and probably ever will be with Europe. Of this
a very large proportion will ultimately communicate with the
interior through the St. Lawrence river and its ship canals, to and
from the lake cities.
If it is true that manufacturing industries will gather where
food and fuel and raw products to be transformed are cheapest,




29
and where the routes of transportation are the most varied, exterisive and economical, it will be hard to find any other points so
commanding in all these respects as Toledo and Chicago. We
claim the better position for the former, because it is believed
that the center of the industrial power of the country will remain
east of her longitude. In making this claim it is not necessary
to underestimate the great destiny of such points as St. Louis,
Louisville, Cincinnati and Cleveland. St. Louis and Cincinnati
were both important and relatively wealthy cities when Chicago
and Toledo sprung into existence. Chicago has almost overtaken
the former, and Toledo is gaining rapidly on the latter. The race
will in the future be between giants, and whichever in the end
shall be least among these will at least be great among other
cities. If the struggle may be narrowed down to the point which
may prove strongest on Lake Erie, as against the point which has
become strongest on Lake Michigan, the combined strength of
Cleveland, Toledo and Detroit may be considered a unit as
against Chicago. The three cities number now nearly the same
population as Chicago. It is believed that in this decade they
will show an aggregate percentage of growth equal'to that of
Chicago; though during the two preceding decades the growth of
the latter city was much more rapid.  After I88o the author
believes the cities of Lake Erie will show, and permanently
maintain, the more rapid ratio of growth; and mutually strengthening each other, that they will so concentrate industrial power
upon Lake Erie that one of them will, in the end, rival and
dominate Chicago.
In the climate where human brain and muscle have greatest
activity and endurance, and where things called for by a high
state of civilization can be brought together for use and exchange
with least expenditure of time and money, the ultimate city of the
human family will be developed. In its early life it will be seen
to grow rapidly, by reason of its facility to procure cheap food,
clothing, houses and fuel. These advantages continuing, and a
higher life t han a merely comfortable existence, procurable as well
there as el sewhere, its growth will have no check, of long duration;
but the law of progress, as shown in its first series of years, and




3~
decades of years, will, p robably, be the law of its maturing growth,
for a period not easy to estimate.
The climate of the lake borders is invigorating and adapted to
the best races of men. The breezes over the pure waters of these
inland seas, and from the cultivated plains of Illinois, and the
well-drained woodlands and fields of Ohio and Michigan, will
possess the tonic power of the ocean winds. For healthfulness,
the positions at the heads of Lakes Michigan and Erie, being
elevated 600 feet above the ocean, are believed to be equal to that
of New York. For transportation by water, in all directions, it
may admit of question whether the advantage is on the side of
the great Atlantic city or the rivals, hereafter to be developed, on
the lakes. If New York claims to have all the oceans and their
connecting navigable waters, the lake cities may claim that, before New York shall have brought the centre of the world's commerce from London, a good navigable passage for lake ships to
the ocean will have been made for the cities of the great lakes, so as
to place them in a position to participate in foreign commerce. But
for interior commerce, which all concede to be far more important
than foreign, the water channels, by lake, river and canal, which
are immediately available for Chicago and Toledo, give these
cities a great advantage over New York, for they extend in all
directions, and have a natural concentration at these points.
New York has only a water channel, for interior commerce, in one
direction, to-wit: northward, up the Hudson river; yet this one
channel of connection with the far interior by means of an artificial water-course, from the Hudson river to Lake Erie, was the
main cause of its rapid domination over other Atlantic cities in
commerce and capital. This river, with its entering canals, forms
almost the only water-way it has for interior commerce.
Transport and interchanges by railways and wagon-roads
may be made from Chicago and Toledo, to nearly all points of
the compass, almost without obstruction, for long distances. Railroads are most naturally placed, and most profitably used, by the
side of the best water-ways. Both these means of transportation
seek the lowest levels, preferring to avoid the task of working
against gravitation; commercial products, like other matters,




3i
choosing a down grade rather than an up grade. The Appalachian range of mountains separate a mere margin of our
country, lying east of them, from the great body of our lands
spread out westward. New York occupies a central position in
this marginal section.  Two low passes through the mountainsone by the Mohawk river, and the other by Lake Champlain-are
the only routes, unobstructed by mountain ranges, which are open
to her choice, to afford her railway communication with the body
of the nation, west of the mountains. These passes form her best
channels of land transport, as well as the only channels of water
transport, with the great central plain.  Placed on the ocean
border, New York can only have a little more than half the land,
within any given radius, from which to obtain trade, which Chicago
and Toledo have. These cities command the lowest passage-ways
between the lake (St. Lawrence) basin and that of the Mississippi
waters. The summit-level of the canal and railroad connecting
Toledo and Cincinnati is but 400 feet above these cities which are
on.the same plane. The Wabash canal and railroad which connect Toledo with the Wabash valley, rise but 200 feet above the
lake in a distance of Iio miles, before they descend towards the
centre of the Mississippi basin, by an almost imperceptible grade.
The margin of the lake basin is but a few miles from Chicago, and
rises but 24 feet above the lake. Towards these low valleys the
commerce of the country naturally gravitates. Along these channels the commerce between the great interior river system and
the great lakes naturally flows. The river cities, Cincinnati,
Louisville, Evansville, Paducah, Cairo, Memphis, St. Louis, Alton,
Quincy, Keokuk, Burlington, Dubuque, Davenport, etc., will use
these natural channels for their rapidly growing commerce with
and through the great lakes. This advantage, alone, would secure
to Chicago and Toledo pre-eminence among the lake cities.
Let us go back a little in our argument. Although London is
now a greater centre of the commercial power of the world than
any other city, it is only measurably so, in a unitary sense. The
organization of society, as one whole, is yet too imperfect to call
for the use of one all-directing head, and one central moving
heart. In many things Paris claims pre-eminence, and many




other cities exist almost independent of London. It will only be
the ultzimate great city that will fully unite in itself the functions
analogous to those of the human head and heart, in relation to
the whole family of man. That ultimate crowning city will be in
the interior of North America. " Earth's noblest empire is her
last." Berkley was a true prophet. The centre of commercial
power will carry with it the centre of moral and intellectual predominance. Its movement, controled by nature's great law, is
steadily westward.  Its semblance, forecasting the future, has
arrived in England, and exists in London. Thence, westward, it
can find no resting-place until it reaches New York. That city
will stand, for a time, the precursor, the herald, of the final great
city of the world, which, within a century, or a little more, from
this time, will have been established in the interior, where Chicago
or Toledo now forms its nucleus.   The same foreshadowing
grounds of belief which compel conviction of the future preeminence of New York, exist and are potent in favor of the
interior city as compared with the Atlantic capital. One hundred
years is allowed for the building of the world's commercial capital
in the world's best region. One hundred years, at our previous
rate of increase, will give four duplications, and six hundred
millions! Allowing, however, thirty-three and one-third years
for future duplications, instead of twenty-five, and we have three
hundred millions as the result! Of these lot less than two hundred
and thirty mi/llions will inhabit thie interior plain, and the region
west of it; and not oveve senty millions will inhabit the margin
east of the Appalachians. What proportion of the two hundred
and thirty millions will prefer to transact business with each other
by crossing the mountains, carrying with them the articles to be
exchanged, to New York, rather than to meet each other at the
most conveniently located city in their midst? The productions
of these two hundred and thirty millions, intended for exchange
with each other, will meet at the most convenient point, central in
time and cost, to their homes and exchangeable products.
Where will that point be? Chicago and Toledo are believed
to be the true claimants for this high destiny. Which of these
has the best position to become the ultimate great city?  In




33
estimating the relative claims of these two young cities to have
the greater future, no concession is made to the present popular
opinion which would, without doubt, decide in favour of the
larger city. I believe Toledo occupies a better position. Some
reasons for this belief have been submitted.
It seems, on examining the two cities on the map of the United
States, that Chicago is more central for gathering in northwestern commerce. I concede this. If there were no counterbalancing power in the commerce of the States, east of Toledo;
of the country east and north of the great lakes, and of the
Atlantic, on all its extended shores, and a rival of Chicago at the
west end of Lake Superior, to come into the account, Toledo
would not be thought of as a successful rival of Chicago. But,
for many years, the centre of industrial power of the world will
be not only east of Toledo but east of New York. As before
remarked, it is endeavoring to establish itself in London.  It
will make a stronger and more successful effort to establish itself
in New York.    In thirty years New York will become the
acknowledged successful rival of London. Within the next fifty
years it will have established its superiority over all former rivals.
It will then experience the effects of the inevitable law of western
progress. The centre of the world's industrial power will be on
its way westward of New York. After leaving that city, where
will be its resting-place?
The centre of the population of the United States, in 1790,
was in Maryland. It has since moved steadily in a direction
north of west. In I850 it was near Pittsburg. In i86o it was in
south-eastern Ohio. If the Provinces north of us are included,
the centre of population is now' not far from Canton, Stark
County, Ohio. If there were no ocean commerce to be taken
into the calculation, Buffalo would now be as near the centre
of the industrial power of our country as any other city, having
decided commercial advantages. When the centre of the industrial power of the world shall tremble in the balance between
New York and its western rival, Buffalo will be too distant from
the great river commerce and the great railway concentration of
* Written in'868.
3




34
the interior plain; and the centre of commercial power of the
continent will be too far west of it. The movement of this centre
of population and industrial power is, undeniably, in the direction
of Toledo. Before reaching Toledo there is no position, on or
near its movement, so favorable to a great concentration of commerce, as to arrest its progress.  Cleveland will be the least
distant, but her advantages are obviously less than those of
Toledo. It will probably be conceded that, if the centre of the
industrial power of the world ever leaves New York to establish
a rival city in the North American plain, it will come as far west
as Toledo. Will it move farther; and, if it does, will it rest in
Chicago? The reasons for making Toledo its first and permanent resting-place are numerous. The centre of industrial power
will for many years be nearer to Toledo than to Chicago  One
hundred and ten miles will have to be passed over; and when, if.ever, that distance is accomplished, Toledo will have the weight
of commercial power on her side. All the time when this centre
is approaching Toledo from the east, and when, if ever, it proceeds so far west as to be nearer Chicago the advantage will be
with Toledo. A line drawn on the map equi-distant from Chicago
and Toledo, and bearing northward and southward will, extended
northward, cut Lake Michigan west of its outlet, and also west of
the outlet of Lake Superior. Extended southwardly it goes
through Indianapolis and Nashville to Pensacola, on the gulf.
All the country east of this middle line is nearer Toledo than
Chicago, and other things being equal should prefer it as the con-,
centrating point of its commerce.
It will be seen on inspection of this line of equal distance that
it shows all the great lake waters, except Lake Michigan, nearer
Toledo than Chicago; Lakes Erie and Ontario, by over 700 miles;
Lake Huron, on the average of its shores, of some 200 miles, and
Lake Superior about 60 miles. This is a great advantage, for the
annual commerce of these lakes (including Michigan), already in its
infancy, exceeds in value one thousand millions of dollars. It
employs over two thousand vessels, aggregating nearly one million
tons, transporting annually (as represented by ALVIN BRONSON, a
high authority) twenty-eight million tons. This commerce will




35
be duplicated several times before the time to which our investigation is carried; and its improved and ample water-way to the
ocean will have been a long time in use. The interior navigation
furnished by lake waters nearer Toledo than Chicago, counting
distance along the shores, measures more than four thousand miles.
From the line of equal distance eastward, Toledo has, nearer
to her, nearly all the Canadas, all the British Provinces east of the
Canadas, two-thirds of the lower peninsula of Michigan, more
than one-third of Indiana, three-fourths of Kentucky, half of
Tennessee, more than half of Alabama, and all of the sixteen
States eastward of those named above.    Nearly all the great
centres of business on this Continent lie within easier communication with Toledo, to-wit: Portland, Boston, Providence, New
York, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Washington, Richmond, Charleston,
Savannah, Louisville, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Detroit, Buffalo,
Toronto; Rochester, Albany, Montreal, Quebec, etc.; while
Chicago only has within its limits (I say its limits, for it will be
noted that I am dividing the future claim to final pre-eminence
in the commerce of the world, between these embryo cities), New
Orleans, Mobile, Memphis St. Louis, Milwaukee, San Francisco,
Sacramento, and many minor cities growing up rapidly on the
Mississippi and Missouri rivers. Of ocean commerce Toledo will
have on her side that of the Atlantic, and Chicago on her side
that of the Pacific. Supposing, then, these lake cities competing,
in the final struggle, to become the greatest central emporium
of commerce, the balance of industrial power seems altogether
favorable to the more eastern one. *
What are the special claims of Chicago? First and greatest is
a population seven times as large as that of Toledo, which, with
the prestige its more rapid development has given it, has enabled
it to concentrate capital and influence only to be equaled by its
rival after a struggle of many years. Up to this time Chicago has
had a great advantage over Toledo in the more rapid development of the country brought within her commercial control, by
* The strong prowth of the fine interior city of Indianapolis, with no water connection for
commerce, and situated nearly equi-distant from Toledo, St. Louis and Chicago, illustrates the
power of railways to create minor foci of exchanges by virtue of the same laow of convenience
to which we have before referred.




36
being made suddenly the focus of a complete system of railways
constructed with a rapidity.never before equaled in the history
of public improvements. These railways, traversing for hundreds
of miles, in many directions, fertile prairie lands, requiring but a
minimum of labor to bring them under cultivation, have been,
in various ways, the means of effecting a wonderfully rapid settlement of those vast prairies, so that they have already, to a great
extent, approached the maximum of their products exportable
through Chicago. Toledo, on the other hand, has been surrounded
by a dense forest of timber for hundreds of miles, which the tide
of immigration for many years avoided. The demand for timber
is now opening this forest of rich lands to cultivation, with profit
to the owners; so that, with the extension of railways in progress
and about to be constructed for the benefit of Toledo, a more even
race with the prairie city may be relied on. Indeed, it will be
strange if the woodland city does not soon exhibit decided proofs
of a higher rate of progress.
The population of the whole country, including the British
Provinces north of our boundary, will exceed eighty millions
A.D. 900o. To bring it up to that number will not require a progress as rapid as the average rate since 1790. Of this number
fifty million at least will be nearer Toledo and Chicago than to
New York. If foreign commerce were out of.the question the
principal exchanges of the country would be made in Toledo
rather than in New York, for the plain reason that they could be
made quicker and cheaper. But New York will then be nearer
Europe, and all the commerce of the Atlantic south of Quebec.
The comparison will stand as follows: —Toledo with the advantage of being the more natural centre for fifty million at home;
and New York with the special advantage of say four hundred
million of foreign population, distant from one thousand to
twenty thousand miles.  Supposing th'e home trade to be
worth fifteen times as much, in proportion  to  population,
as the foreign commerce, the number of people, nearer Toledo, will equal three hundred and fifty million of foreigners
in excess of the number actually nearer New York, New York
would possess the advantage of having already the capital




37
and other appliances to perform the duties of chief city of the
world. What portion of the foreign commerce may fall to the
share of the interior city before the year 900o cannot be estimated,
and, for that reason, is left out of the comparison.
It is not claimed that Toledo or Chicago will lead our great
Atlantic city in a life-time. But how will they stand in 50 years
-Anno Domini 1920?    Before that year there will be several
Pacific railways spanning the Continent, and several large cities
on the Pacific side of the Continent, gathering in the commerce
of the North Pacific, and prepared to carry on a great commerce
with the leading cities of the- interior plain, and of the Atlantic
border. The commerce gathered in the Pacific cities will meet
somewhere the gathered commerce of the Atlantic, centred now
chiefly in New York, Boston and Montreal. The best portions
of Europe and Asia will strike hands over our Continent. Where
will be the place of their meeting? Will it be New York? Our
home commercial system will then embrace about one hundred
and thirty million. Of this number there will live not less than
ninety-five million nearer Toledo than to New York! and some
thirty-five million nearer to New York; giving an excess of home
population of sixty million in favor of Toledo-equal, in commercial power, to nine hundred million foreigners. New York
will not then monopolize our foreign commerce. All the commerce commanded by the Gulf of St. Lawrence and Hudson's
Bay may be more conveniently brought into connection with
Toledo. There will then be the Pacific commerce, in the track
of which, between the two oceans, Toledo and Chicago will be
situated. It is not for us to know what extension of the commerce
of eastern Asia with the United States will take place in the
coming fifty years. It seems probable that there will be a large
migration from Japan, China, and possibly India, to the western
coast of our country. Our undeveloped resources call for all the
labor and skill which can be brought from the over-peopled lands of
Asia and Europe. Hunger is an imperative master which will bring
to the land of plenty many millions now suffering under its power.
It would be to leave an important element out of the calculation
not to give much weight to the effect this anticipated migration of
the Asiatics may have in determining the position of the great cen



38
tral city of I970-or, indeed, of the city of 1920. The coming 50
years will probably do more for the concentration of the world's
traffic than all the years of the past. It is but 6i years since
Fulton demonstrated the practicability of using steam as a motive
power in navigation, and it was not till many years after that it
became much Iore than an experiment.      Now all waters are
witnesses of its triumphs. Steam-propelled cars and ships will,
before the 50 years shall have passed, bring within their power the
great body of the world's commerce, and cause all races of men
to fraternize in commlercial transactions. It is but 40 years since
the first locomotive on a railway (the Liverpool and Manchester)
proved its power to draw with much speed a train of cars. This
year I868 will scarcely pass before it will triumph over the
Rocky Mountains, in its passage across the broad Continent of
North America. It is not unreasonable to anticipate that an
iron or steel track will, before the end of fifty years, bestride
the great Eastern Continent from the North Sea and British
Channel, around which the commerce of Europe centres, to the
Yellow Sea of the Pacific, the central sea of the commerce of
eastern Asia. It is quite evident, even now, that colmmerce moved
on land wiell very soon be vastly gr(eater tihan colzmmerce zmoved on the
weater, though the means by which both are carried on will be
greatly improved.
In large portions of our Continent every acre may furnish food
for land commerce, whereas, the oceans and great seas are
almost waste places in the lack of means to furnish commercial equivalents.  Until a few years past transportation, by
land, has been so slow and costly that cities on the borders
of the great seas possessed great advantage of intercourse over
interior cities, and, in consequence, almost monopolized the
world's great commerce. A revolution is now in rapid progress
that will change the relations of these localities, and give to
interior positions a controlling advantage over those on the ocean
borders. As yet few persons seem to appreciate this great revolution in its power to change the places best for concentrating the
world's commerce. Chicago and Toledo unite in a marked degree
the advantages of both land and water transport. The coasts of
the great lakes, some 5,00o miles in extent, offer a large field for




39
home navigation, and the certainty of a commodious water
channel, connecting them with the ocean, ensures to them advantages of navigable intercourse with the outer world. When the
fertile lands around them become densely filled with an industrious and intelligent population, it is difficult to imagine impeding
causes that can prevent them from becoming the great centres of
the trade of our Continent. The probability of the attainment
of such high destiny will, when known, induce men of intelligence to select for themselves and families homes in and near these
cities. The climate for pleasantness and health is among the best
east of the elevated plateau of the Rocky Mountains.  Each has,
on the borders of its home lake, a fruit climate and soil not
excelled, if equaled, east of that plateau.
If it is true that the movement of human power is so surely
westward as to make it reasonably certain that New York will
become greater than London; if it is true that this movement
will carry a great preponderence of numbers and wealth into the
great central plain; if it is true that the home commerce of the
continent, moved on land and water, is now greatly in excess of
its foreign commerce, and constantly increasing in proportion; if
it is true that this home commerce concentrates more and more in
cities of the interior plain; if it is true that the lake cities concentrate this home commerce more than the river cities of the
plain; if it is true that, of all the lake cities, Chicago and Toledo
grow faster, by virtue of their power to bring to themselves a
greater primary commerce than any other lake cities; if commerce
by land is becoming much more important, in our country, than
commerce by water; if all the elements that promote manufacturing industries are there found most abundantly; if all these are
true facts, does it not follow, as surely as the day succeeds the
night, that the great city of the future will be in our great interior
plain; and, with reasonable certainty, may it not be anticipated
that Chicago or Toledo will be that city?
Is it because Chicago is further west than Toledo and so commands a larger extent of country, in that direction, that it has so
far outstripped its sister of Lake Erie: or is it owing to some
other cause than a superiority of position? Is not the sufficient
cause found in the facility of opening land to cultivation afforded




40
by the inviting prairie on all sides of the former, and the difficulty
of divesting the soil of the heavy forest surrounding the latter?
To test the relative merit of the position of these cities respectively,
let us suppose Chicago to have been surrounded by a dense forest,
and the whole country within the reach of its natural commercial
command, like that which surrounded Toledo in 1832; which, in
that condition, would now be the greater? Does any one doubt
that it would be Toledo? Again; let us imagine Toledo, at that
time, surrounded by a region of prairies, like that of Chicago, and
that from the west end of Lake Erie had radiated that almost magical development of railways, which peopled the States around
that city, so that the merit of position, alone, had determined their
relative growth. Can there be a doubt that Toledp, now, would
be the greater city? It is, then, the prairies, only, which has given
Chicago the preference. It is, then, the forest that has retarded
the growth of Toledo. What will be the effect of prairie and
forest on these cities hereafter? The prairies will, to a large
extent, be monopolized by large holders, be cultivated by machinery, and so be sparsely inhabited. The forest impediment to
cultivation will every year grow less. Already in considerable
portions its removal is a source of profit. It is becoming an important source of revenue. It is being divided into small holdings,
tending to a greater density of population.
If now the position of Toledo has been inferior, only because of
the advantage to Chicago of her prairies, that inferiority is being
removed and becomes a superiority when, in addition to the
advantage of having the ground in sufficient quantity opened for
use, there remains a valuable supply of timber land interspersed
and available for the various purposes of advancing art in city
and country at home, and for export abroad.
And now may it not be justly claimed that the westward movement of human power will, much within one hundred years, bring
the world's great centre of commerce to New York, and, if to
New York, then to an interior city-if to an interior city, then to
a lake city- and if to a lake city, then to Toledo or Chicago, as
the natural advantages of position shall finally prove more powerful to favor the one or the other?




4I
One hundred years! What may we not hope of development
in that period-long, if measured by the duration of human life;
short for the life of a nation, and very short in comparison with
thelife ot the human race. Looking back one hundred years,
we find that some 4,000,000 of ipopulatidn of British Colonies
have grown to 4.0,000,000. New York then was about two-thirds
the size of Toledo now.-. Our city population has increased more
than thirty fold. Our wealth has increased faster than our cities.
One hundred years to come, with the command of steam, electricity, and we know not what other and superior agencies for
wonder-working, ca.n scarcely fail to produce results of a magnitude beyond the power of the most vigorous imagination to conceive. The cities of western Europe are grand out-growths of
modern improvements, but they will be deemed, in their present
condition, rude and small in comparison with the vast emporiums
which, in one hundred years, will grow up on our continent.