(A)
THE NEXT POPE
***
-
By
DR. SIGM UND MUN2
office of publication :
Rooms 2128-29-30-31, Park Row Building



THE NEXT POPE.”
The limit of that seventieth year, after which the Psalmist
-
says: “ Strength is but labor and sorrow,” was passed by the
pope twenty years ago. On the 2nd of March Leo XIII. cele-
brated his ninetieth birthday. On the 20th of February it was
twenty-two years since he was elected pope, and his reign is
already of more than common length. All history can show
no more than ten popes whose reigns have exceeded twenty
years. Sylvester I. reigned 21 years; Adrian I., 23; his
successor, Leo III., 21; Alexander III., 22; Urban VIII., 21;
Clement XI., 21; Pius VI., 24; his successor, Pius VII., 23;
Pius IX., 32 years; and Leo XIII., so far, 22.
As far as can be foreseen, the pope will soon depart this
life. He is not only the oldest of the famous grey-headed
Italians,—four years older than Verdi, and ten years older
than Crispi, but is the oldest living celebrity in the world (a
few years ago Gladstone ran him close). The pope no doubt
often thinks of his approaching dissolution, and in all proba-
bility he has long ago drawn up a testament, recommending
some cardinal as his successor. Immediately on the death of
a pope, and before the Conclave meets, the cardinals, with
the camerlengo at their head, glance through the testament of
the deceased. But reverence for the dead pope does not at
all oblige them to consider his wish as binding. It has hap.
pened that the cardinals have chosen one with whom the de-
Originally printed in the “Contemporary Review,” April, 1900.
3

4. THE NEXT POPE
ceased pope was by no means in sympathy. It has also hap-
pened that a man has been elected who was not even in posses-
sion of the purple when the testament proposing one of the
most approved of the cardinals was made. The question is
now being asked, especially among the Italians: Who will be
the successor to Leo XIII.
No doubt he is already a cardinal. It is very improbable
that the Conclave which may meet to-morrow will choose a
man who has not been a member of the Sacred College for
many years and has not won the favor of that body. In judg-
ing who it will be, we must not run to the extreme of only tak-
ing into consideration those who have been cardinals for dec-
ades, or to the other extreme of supposing that a man will be
chosen who has only recently attained to the purple. Just as
the present pope has for some time settled his own choice of a
successor, so every single cardinal has in his own mind chosen
his favorite; and without doubt a secret understanding has
been come to among certain cardinals, and even among groups
in the Sacred College, with regard to the man who is to be
called to the helm of the church when Leo XIII. dies. If
there were no such understanding, absolute or relative, it
would scarcely be possible for the different parties within the
Holy College to keep the name of their favorite secret until
the death of the pope; and the names of some cardinals are
even now floating in the air. It is not through mere caprice
that public opinion brings up the names of Parocchi, Rampolla
del Tindaro, Serafino Vannutelli, etc., as likely candidates.
There are groups among the cardinals who incline towards
one or the other man. If in public discussion this one or

THE NEXT POPE 5
that is named, it is not merely empty talk, for the press and
the electors of the future pope constantly influence one another.
Quietly and secretly the cardinals exchange views regard-
ing the candidates; loudly and publicly their abilities are dis-
cussed in the press and political pamphlets, especially in
Italy. Although the anonymous “Conservatore Cattolico,”
in his recently-published work, “I Cardinali ed il Conclave ''
(Rome, Bocca, 1899), emphatically asserts that, so long as
the pope has not closed his eyes, none of the cardinals will
choose or become a candidate, that all await the coming Con-
clave with patience,—this is not really the case. Officially,
of course, there are neither canvassers nor canvassed. But it
is not true that no preparations for a future Conclave are be-
ing made in the circle of cardinals during the pope’s life-
time. It has always been the case that, when an old man has
sat upon the papal throne, the cardinals have interested them-
selves in the question as to who will be called upon to become
his successor. Nowadays, in the age of the press, many se-
crets of the College of the cardinals force their way into pub-
licity. The press makes the choice of the future pope the
question of the day, and does not wait till the pope is dead,
although as soon as he breathes his last it assumes a more de-
cisive tone. The strong feeling which is at work at the mo-
ment before the Conclave meets is only the last stage of the
agitation which the press begins long before the vacancy
occurs.
A letter from Count Graziadei to the Neapolitan Raffaele
De Cesare, the historian of the last Conclave, indicates the
way in which, in these days of the telegraph and the press,

6 THE NExT POPE
the election of a pope is conducted. The press had worked
for Pecci even during the lifetime of Pius IX. On the death
of that pontiff efforts were vigorously renewed to influence the
still wavering cardinals at home and still more those abroad.
These endeavors Count Graziadei has described in so eloquent
and detailed a manner that I venture to quote his account, tak-
ing it from a work called “Il Papa Futuro’’ (Turin, 1898),
--
by “Cattolico Italiano,” a pseudonym of Giovanni Berthelet:
On the day the pope died, I met the Princess Potenziani (an intimate
friend of the then Monsignore, late Cardinal, Galimberti) on the Corso. I
bowed to her, and told her that Pius IX. was then nearing his end. She
invited me to join the prince and herself in their carriage, and accompany
them to the Vatican. We mounted the stairs leading to the pope's apart-
ments, which were crowded with high church dignitaries, Roman princes,
and ladies. It was a quarter past five in the evening when we arrived, and
the decease of the pope was shortly afterwards announced. As I left the
Vatican, I met Ugo Pesci, one of the staff of the "Fanfulla.” I told him the
pope was dead, and promised to supply the "Fanfulla” with information for
the next day. The princess inquired if I wrote for this paper. I answered
that I occasionally contributed an article. She thereupon invited me to dine
with her that evening. At the dinner I met Monsignore Galimberti, to whom
I was introduced. As Monsignore had heard that I had some connection
with the “Fanfulla,” he asked me if I could enter into relations with other
leading Italian and foreign journals in view of the approaching Conclave. I
answered in the affirmative, and he begged me to visit him at nine o'clock the
next morning at his house, No. 108, Via del Pozzetto. I was with Monsignore
at the appointed hour, when he told me that he was charged with the duty of
influencing the European press in favor of the election of Cardinal Pecci to
the vacant throne. He gave me to understand that he had received this com-
mission from Cardinal Franchi, whose intimate friendship with Monsignore
was known to every one. Before definitely replying, I asked him whether
Cardinal Pecci was the candidate of the Intransigents, or of that part of the
Sacred College which inclined to moderation and to reconciliation with Italy.

THE NEXT POPE 7
Galimberti explained to me that Pecci was the candidate of the Moderates, and
that, should he be elected he was prepared to adjust all differences with the
kingdom of Italy. I then agreed, and promised him an answer on the follow-
ing day. The same day I went to the “Fanfulla” office, and assured myself
of the support of that paper, and also of that of the “Gazzetta d’Italia,” in
favor of Cardinal Pecci's election. The “Times” correspondent, Mr. Gal-
lenga, was then in Rome, whither he had come some months before, in ex-
pectation of the pope's death. Galimberti laid great stress on the aid of the
"Times.” As Gallenga was in the habit of coming every day to the "Fan-
fulla" office, I made his acquaintance through the manager, Signor Avanzini.
Gallenga seemed inclined to promote the candidature of Cardinal Pecci, and
promised me that he would do so in his telegrams to the “Times.” Gallenga
wished also to be kept informed how matters proceeded in the Conclave, and
we met several times, Avanzini, Gallenga, and myself, in a small room at the
editorial office of the "Fanfulla.” Gallenga once said, jokingly: “Here we
are, making the pope!” Monsignore Galimberti was very well satisfied with
the result of my endeavors. It was agreed to telegraph to Bologna, to Count
Giuseppe Grabinski, a brother of Prince Potenziani, and a contributor to the
“Défense.” By his aid, and with the help of Count Conestabile of Perugia,
the assistance of the French press was to be secured. Conestabile wrote for
the “Figaro,” and both he and Grabinski were effective and well-known pro-
moters of a policy of reconciliation with Italy. Grabinski came to Rome, and
took up his quarters at the Hotel Minerva, where articles were written con-
taining detailed information and biographical dates concerning Cardinal Pecci,
and these found their way into England, France, and Austria-Hungary.
Through Grabinski and myself Galimberti informed many diplomatists ac-
credited to the Quirinal that Pecci was the only one of the cardinals who
would suit the whole world as pontiff, as he was a learned, mild, and con-
ciliatory man.
The above letter of Count Graziadei appears to me to be of
very great importance. In fact, the press, which, when
Gregory XVI. died, in 1846, was still wrapped in swaddling
clothes, has now the effect of drawing close together men who
formerly had no contact with one another. This is also true

8 THE NExT POPE
with respect to the cardinals. In the Conclave they appear to
represent only their own personalities, but, as a matter of
fact, they serve as the spokesmen of whole classes, sometimes
even of States and monarchs. While on the one hand the
cardinals inspire the press, they in their turn are influenced
by opinions in the press emanating from groups, from parlia-
mentary bodies, from governments. In the Sacred College
the great political conflicts which disturb Europe find a lively
echo. There are papal candidates and papal electors who are
friends to the Dual Alliance and enemies to the Triple, and
others who are enemies to the Dual Alliance and friends to
the Triple. In all probability neither extreme party will be
victorious.at the next Conclave. It may be assumed that in
the election of the next pope no tendency will be manifested
openly hostile to any great power. As the powers who in
former times exercised a direct influence upon the papal elec-
tion showed their moderation during the last vacancy by leav-
ing all decisions to the electors, so, in return for this confi.
dence, the cardinals will, it is hoped, in the next Conclave,
come to no agreement which might appear offensive to either
group of the European States. Those who are acquainted with
the condition of things are agreed that none of the powers
possessing the right of veto-France, Austria-Hungary, and
Spain—is likely to make use of it. Even if the choice of
some cardinal were disapproved by one of these Catholic
States, no such vital interest is taken in the matter nowadays
that it could come forward with a protest. Even in the Con-
clave of 1878 the right of veto was not exercised.
In former times, when these States called a part of Italy

THE NEXT POPE 9
their own and kept troops there, the question wore a different
aspect. They were obliged to see that no opponent of their
special Italian territorial interests was chosen pope. No
wonder that at each Conclave the temporal arm made its
power felt; no wonder that rivalry was acute, when the in-
terests of one State were centred in one cardinal, while the
interests of another demanded another, the more powerful in-
fluence finally prevailing. Even after the death of Gregory
XVI., in 1846, Austria felt herself drawn into the affairs of
the Conclave. At that time Austria was still a power, in fact
the leading power, in Italy—strong not only on account of her
sovereignty over Lombardy and Venice, but also because rela-
tions and dependents of the House of Habsburg sat on the
thrones of Parma, Modena, and Tuscany, and because the
policy of Metternich was paramount in the two Sicilies as
well as in the Papal States. It was therefore Austria’s busi-
ness toward off the election of any cardinal inclined to en-
courage national aspirations in Italy, and to protect the candi-
date who would follow in the steps of Gregory XVI. Such a
man was to be found in the secretary of State to the deceased
pontiff, the dark and obstinate Cardinal Lambruschini. His
election would have met with the approval of Austria, who had
already found in him, as State-secretary, a mighty instrument
for her anti-Liberal and anti-Italian policy, and who expected
him, when pope, to become a firm political ally. For these
reasons Austria should have opposed the choice of Cardinal
Mastai-Ferretti, bishop of Imola, who had the reputation of
being a man of liberal views. In the family of Mastai, whose
estates were situated in Sinigaglia, there were so many Lib-

*0 THE NEXT POPE
eral members that the fanatical reactionary Lambruschini had
remarked: “In the house of Mastai-Ferretti the very cats are
Liberal!” It might have been supposed, therefore, that
Prince Metternich would take every precaution against the pos-
sible election of Mastai-Ferretti. But there was no prevailing
expectation that his eminence would be brought forward as
candidate for the papal chair. He seemed, for one thing,
too young, being only fifty-four years of age. All eyes were
turned rather towards Lambruschini, who was then seventy, or
towards Pasquale Gizzi, legate of Forli, who was sixty. Met-
ternich had consequently made no preparations for opposing
Mastai-Ferretti. The Emperor Ferdinand had entrusted Arch-
bishop Gaisruck of Milan with the veto against Cardinal Ber-
netti, but Gaisruck reached Rome too late. When the un-
expected election of the bishop of Imola took place, Prince
Metternich feared to find in him a pontiff favorably disposed
towards the national and liberal aspirations of Italy. Such,
indeed, Pius IX. appeared to be at the beginning of his reign,
but, as is well known, later on he favored reaction. Though
the speedy fall of Metternich prevented his utilizing the pope
as an ally for the suppression of the Revolution in Italy, yet
his followers, Prince Felix Schwarzenberg and Count Buol
Schauenstein, reaped the fruits of Pius IX.'s political conver-
sion, as he rapidly learned to deny the early professions of
Cardinal Mastai-Ferretti.
Although, therefore, in 1846, Catholic Austria under Met-
ternich, the then dictator of the European continent, was al-
most tempted to interfere in the Conclave, the situation in
1878 was considerably changed. No power was directly in-

THE NEXT POPE 11
terested in Italy, for the Austrian and, last of all, the French
troops had long disappeared from the country. It was only a
question of the choice of a vicegerent of Christ upon earth,
or at best a successor of St. Peter. There existed only a
bishop of Rome, no longer a king of the States of the Church.
The choice of the pope-king, of the worldly sovereign of an
ecclesiastical State, had formerly caused much trouble to the
several powers, and finally to Austria and France. The
choice of a purely spiritual head of Catholic Christianity—
which the pope has been since September 20, 1870—was re-
garded in a cooler manner by the cabinets. And the powers
seem now to have firmly decided that the future Conclave shall
not be the subject of international arrangement. In Monte-
citorio the rumor was spread during the last severe illness of
the present pope, in March, 1899, that some years previously
negotiations with the most friendly powers regarding the
future pontiff had commenced in the cabinet of the Quirinal.
Signor De Cesare, we have every reason to believe, is not
well informed when, in his book ‘‘Dal Conclave di Leone
XIII. all’ ultimo Concistorio,” he supposes that Visconti
Venosta, as minister of Italian foreign affairs some years be-
fore, had conducted pourparlers concerning the future Conclave
with the allied governments of Austria-Hungary and Germany.
No discussions whatever had taken place in those years, as
there was no cause for them. During the years preceding the
death of Pius IX. proposals were made both in the Italian
chamber and in the Hungarian delegations for negotiations
Città di Castello, Lapi, 1899.

12 THE NExT POPE
among the cabinets with regard to the papal election. As no
interests of Italy demanded such a step, no proposal for pour-
parlers issued from the Quirinal cabinet. It was more likely
that an attempt would be made by certain foreign govern-
ments, under the pressure of their Catholic subjects, to as-
certain before the meeting of the coming Conclave whether
Italy would guarantee independence and quiet to the cardinals
during the election. A step in this direction was indeed
made by some cabinets, though not until after the death of
Pius IX., but it bore a purely formal character, as the foreign
governments knew that Italy was both able and willing to
afford the Conclave all conceivable safety. It was not the in-
terest of Italy at that time to bring on in advance the question
of the Conclave, nor is it so at present. Even the question
whether the cardinals would decide to hold the Conclave at
Rome or away from Italy could not in any way touch the exist-
ence of the kingdom. Italy would suffer no loss to her na-
tional integrity, were the pope to leave Rome. But, should
the cardinals, at the death of the present pope, in order to
commit an act of demonstrative animosity against Italy, feel
tempted to hold the Conclave outside Italy, it might easily
come to pass that the new pope would no longer be in a posi-
tion to take up his residence in the Vatican. The Italian
government would no doubt prevent his return to Rome.
So many Italians feel the presence of the pope in Rome as a
thorn in the flesh that any government would draw down upon
itself the general displeasure of Italian politicians if, in the
event of the chiefs of the church leaving the Vatican, with
the assertion that they felt themselves unsafe in Rome, Italy

THE NExT POPE 13
did not immediately appropriate the apostolic palace as a na-
tional possession. The present pope, who was at first badly
advised, came very near helping to create in 1878 a critical
situation for the papacy. De Cesare relates, in his account of
the last Conclave, that Cardinal Pecci, in a long speech made
in presence of thirty-seven cardinals in the first Congregation,
held on the 8th of February, the day after the death of Pius
IX., counselled the meeting of the Conclave outside Italy. In
the Congregation of February 9 Pecci again advocated a de-
parture from Rome, and was inclined to a settlement at Malta;
but better advice finally prevailed, and he voted for Rome.
The papacy has certainly lost nothing, but gained much, by
this wise decision. Any one who has witnessed the pompous
ceremonies at St. Peter’s, when the pontiff himself is present,
such as the golden mass celebrated at the ordination jubilee of
Leo XIII., before thousands of spectators from every land,
must have heard the enraptured cry, “Evviva il Papa Re''
(Long live the Pope King). The pope is still powerful to-day,
in spite of the fact that he is no longer an earthly sovereign,
but only the high priest of Catholicism, in spite of the fact
that he no longer resides in the Vatican as king, but only as
bishop of Rome. However emphatically the pope may urge
his claims upon the Dominium temporale, however solemnly he
may declare his right to Rome as the capital of the Tiara, no
independent thinker can be convinced of the justice of these
pretensions. The very fact that the moral power of the pope
has increased so remarkably, since temporal sovereignty was
denied to him, shows that the cares of earthly government were
more of a burden than a help. The case would be far other-

14 THE NEXT POPE
wise if the pope ceased to be bishop of Rome, or if he, as
bishop of Rome in partibus, lived in some place far from the
banks of the Tiber and the Hills of Latium. Did the con-
--
nection with the ancient city lie only in the title “Bishop of
-
Rome'' and not in the actual throne, were Rome no more the
sedes residentialis, but only the sedes titularis, of the pope, how
easily might the position of bishop of Rome shrink to an un-
substantial existence, such as is led by hundreds of titular
bishops of Catholic Christendom, upon whom the pope has con-
ferred famous sees with the sounding titles of bishops of He-
bron, Jericho, Tyre, Trebizond, Damascus, Nicea, Antioch,
Cesarea, Corinth, and other places, over which the spirit of
antiquity and sacred tradition hovers, or where the Israelitish
seers have prophesied and the apostles of Christ have
preached. These bishops govern as shepherds without sheep.
The present bishop of Rome, formerly bishop of Perugia, had
no adequate idea, when preparations were being made for the
Conclave in 1878, of the way in which the papal see would
suffer if Rome ceased to be the residence of the pope. Not
only would the papacy have been in continual danger, had the
cardinals left Rome to choose a pope, but the Conclave could
neither have settled its affairs so quickly nor with so little
disturbance as in Rome. The less the powers concern them.
selves in the Conclave, the quicker it will be over.
In early times the choice was rapidly made. Gregory
XIII., in 1572, was elected in an hour, and Gregory XV., in
1621, in seven hours. But how dramatic, agitated, and
prolonged was the Conclave of 1769, at which Ganganelli was
elected, afterwards Clement XIV. Ninety-three days elapsed

THE NEXT POPE 15
before “Clemente il povero,” or “the philosopher of St.
Peter’s Chair,” as Ferdinand Gregorovius called him, the
candidate of whose elevation no one had dreamed, at length
obtained the unanimous vote of the Conclave. Two popes of
the nineteenth century were also elected in protracted and
turbulent assemblies, Pius VIII. after thirty-two and Gregory
XVI. after fifty days’ deliberation. On the other hand, the
Conclave which brought forward Leo XIII. as pope lasted
scarcely thirty hours. The coming Conclave also will take
hours rather than days.
It is not only the absence of temporal power in the papacy
and temporal interests in the Conclave which makes the
choice of a pope more easy than before. The increased means
of communication have made it possible for cardinals from all
parts of the earth to assemble by the time the necessary inter-
val between the death of the pope and the meeting of the Con-
clave has elapsed.
In 1846 there were no railways in Italy. Pius IX. reigned
thirty-two years, and during that time railways were con-
structed throughout the land, chiefly owing to the vigorous
initiative of Cavour. In the year that Pius IX. was raised to
the papal throne, Cavour remarked, in an article published in
the ‘‘ Revue Nouvelle de Paris’’:
The task of the locomotive, according to our persuasion, is to alleviate, if
not altogether to remove, every humiliating degradation to which so many
sections of the great Christian population are condemned. From this point
of view steam may be said to play the part of Providence. No country is
entitled to promise itself so much from railways as Italy. The political and
social advantages which will come to this beautiful country will show, more
than anything that may happen elsewhere, the mighty role which this means
of communication will play in the future.

16 THE NExT POPE
And so it turned out. The effect of the railway and tele-
graph, in Italy, connecting persons and things, was enormous.
The rolling locomotive even crushed under its iron wheels
the temporal power of the pope. But, when the dominium tem-
porale was once done away, it was the papacy itself that most
quickly perceived the advantages of the railway. Now with
ease could the faithful from all parts of Italy be rapidly con-
veyed to the Vatican to demonstrate for the principles of the
pope as opposed to the Italian monarchy. It now became a
light task to forward pilgrims from all parts of Europe, as
well as from the other side of the ocean, to Rome across the
Angel’s Bridge.
The Conclave also, like the papal government, benefits from
the newest improvements in communication. It is now pos-
sible for the cardinals from the four corners of the globe to
attend the assembly, so that the election is no longer in the
hands of those who happen to be on the spot. How different
it was in 1846. There were then no railways, and the jour-
ney from Milan to Rome took longer than a journey from
Malta to London nowadays. Owing to the short interval be-
tween the death of the pope and the election following–
Gregory XVI. died on the 1st of June, 1846, the Conclave
met on the 14th, the election began on the 15th, and Pius IX."
was declared pope on the 16th–the foreign cardinals were
unable to take part in it. Had all the foreign cardinals at-
tended, they would hardly have chosen Mastai-Ferretti, who
for thirty-two years, as Pius IX., held his fatal sceptre over
the world.
It was quite otherwise at the Conclave of 1878, when all the

THE NExT POPE 17
cardinals whose sees were outside Italy, with the exception of
two, were able to be present. The influence of the non-
Italians on the choice depends naturally on whether they are
represented in greater or lesser numbers in the Sacred College.
Pope Leo XIII. appears to have no general prejudice against
non-Italians. He has invested many non-Italians with the
purple. Had he succumbed to the severe illness which befell
him last spring, the non-Italian element in the Sacred College,
though in the minority, would have been powerful in the Con-
clave. Since then things have changed. The nomination of
cardinals at the last June Consistory is, in view of the possi-
bility of a Conclave, of the greatest significance, as the pro-
portion of Italians and foreigners was thereby seriously al-
tered, to the prejudice of non-Italians. Eleven new cardinals
received the red hat, and among them were eight Italians.
This startling policy of Italianizing the Curia was a conces-
sion made by the old and weak pope to his secretary of State,
Cardinal Rampolla. It was directly opposed to that spirit of
equal justice which Leo XIII. had always shown. Hitherto
he had never allowed himself to be overcome by the Chauvin-
ism of the Italian prelates nor given way to the Italian ex-
clusiveness of the Curia, against which so many illustrious
men of the Catholic church outside Italy, from Luther to
Döllinger, have protested.
It was the peculiar composition of the Sacred College
which gave rise to the assertion of the great German theolo-
gian, Ignaz von Döllinger, that the Curia would never cease
to be “that national and profitable institution which carries
Italian influence and authority into distant lands, and which

18 THE NEXT POPE
has made so many millions of men submissive and tributary
to an Italian oligarchy.” The further assertion of Döllinger
that “the Vatican will, however, take good care that a society
of clever Italians shall practise and utilize the most irresisti-
ble of all powers, the mastery over conscience, on both sides
of the ocean,” would have been confuted, if the pope had
died a year ago. Thirty Italians and twenty-seven non-
Italians were then found in the Sacred College. It wanted
only a step to reduce the dwindling Italian majority to equal-
ity, and a further step would have easily led to a majority of
foreigners over Italians.
Döllinger did not long remain contradicted by facts, for
Cardinal Rampolla, who possesses a less ethical and cosmo-
politan mind, has gained the mastery over the pope. Not
only to please him did the pope invest so many Italians and so
few foreigners with the purple. The new cardinals were
themselves creatures of the leader of the papal policy, and, in
taking the opportunity of the pope's declining years to recom-
mend his own favorites for the purple, the State secretary has
done very well for himself.
Those who received the cardinal’s hat at the June Consis-
tory are chiefly prelates whose votes Rampolla may count on
after the pope's death. Were Leo XIII. to close his eyes to
mortal light to-day, Rampolla would desire to be his successor
to-morrow.
A word or two will not be wasted in describing this all-
powerful cardinal. Signor Chierici, in his pamphlet, “ Alla
conquista del papato,” speaks somewhat too enthusiastically
* Rome, Voghera 1898.

THE NEXT POPE 19
-
in representing the cardinal as “a majestic figure with
strongly-marked features, a wide forehead, the brow of one
born to command.’’ ‘‘ The cardinal,” continues the Italian
publicist, ‘‘ resembles the cardinals of an heroic age. His
chest seems to await the breastplate, his head the helm. He
has but one ambition—to be pope. To attain this object he
has for years exercised all his pertinacity and all his tal-
-
ents.” Further on Chierići remarks of Rampolla: “His
voice has soft seductive tones. Through a dim, mystical
veil, which shades his eyes, shoot sparks of fire. Under a
cover of asceticism and of the greatest amiability is concealed
a proud soul, ever ready to conquer, to convince, to subdue.”
We have quoted these words to show that the State secretary,
who has many enemies, does not lack admirers.
Cardinal Rampolla is a man of fifty-seven years of age,
and, as is well known, was formerly nuncio at the court of
Madrid. He proved an able diplomatist when the pope was
called upon to arbitrate between Germany and Spain in the
matter of the Caroline Islands. He is considered to be thor-
oughly Intransigent, and will come forward as the chief candi-
date of the Intransigent party. He has some chance of being
chosen, as the Intransigents are in the majority among the
Italian cardinals. To add to the balance in his favor, he
will be voted for by the majority of the French cardinals.
He stands well with the grey-headed Cardinal-Archbishop
Richard of Paris, with Langénieux of Rheims, and with
Mathieu of Toulouse. Archbishop Goossens of Mechlin, and
Logue of Armagh, metropolitan of Ireland, may also be
counted among his supporters. If we take into account his

20 * THE NEXT POPE
services as a diplomatist in Spain, where he made many
friends, Rampolla may also reckon upon the votes of the
Spanish cardinals. And yet it seems very doubtful whether
he will eventually be elected, because such a choice would be
an offence against the Triple Alliance, which he openly de-
tests, and especially against Italy and Germany.
Rampolla's most prominent rival is Cardinal Parocchi, a
man of sixty-seven. He is a Lombardian by birth; he was
formerly a priest in Mantua, and was then considered a
Liberal. In enthusiastić language he blessed the Italian
fatherland, calling it “a land of heroes, a home of saints, an
object of envy to the world.” He blessed “the generous
king,” Victor Emmanuel, the middle classes and their institu-
tions. But he soon changed his course. As archbishop of
Bologna he went against all the decisions of the Italian au-
thorities, and was more papal than Pius IX. Leo XIII., when
he became pope, saw that Parocchi’s further presence in
Bologna was regarded by Italy as an act of enmity, and he
accordingly called him to Rome.
Parocchi has now lived for twenty years in Rome as cardi-
nal of the Curia, and during this time has dropped some of his
Intransigent views. He may even now appear conciliatory
by contrast with those prelates who are absolutely fanatical.
This comparatively moderate spirit may be measured by the
immovable temper of Rampolla, who is a living picture of the
darkest times of the middle ages. Parocchi, however, al-
though he has become more temperate of late years, is not
credited with sufficient humility to discover the noblest method
of carrying out his decisions, the most modest expression for

THE NEXT POPE . 21
the boldest thoughts, or the most amiable and moderate appli-
cation of strong convictions. During the performance of
church ceremonies he sits beneath the baldachin stiff and mo-
tionless as a dies irae, his feelings tightly held in by his firm
and obstinate lips. His peculiar energy is not softened by
the influence of religion, which generally subdues the most
iron natures to some measure of humility and charity.
It may be said with certainty that none of the cardinals
are so much esteemed by the French as are Rampolla and
Parocchi. Among the French cardinals, indeed, who at the
present time number seven, there are some who are more in-
clined to Parocchi than to Rampolla. Among the non-Italian
cardinals Parocchi has, on the whole, more followers than
Rampolla, and, taking everything into consideration, Parocchi
is certainly the more popular man of the two. He even ap-
pears more in public than the secretary of State, who is seldom
to be seen at church functions, and still less in society. Pa-
rocchi will go to the Conclave with the same confidence with
which Méline went to the last congress at Versailles. It is
quite possible that he will be beaten, as was Méline, and he
could not hope for better success next time. It does not often
happen that a cardinal takes part in three elections, and, in
the present era of long papal reigns, it is a rare thing to sur-
vive two.
Parocchi is the youngest of the three cardinals who took
part in the last Conclave. The two others are Ledochowski
and Oreglia di Santo Stefano. With regard to the Pole,
Ledochowski, a nun is said to have prophesied that he would
have the happiness of seeing the ancient throne of the Polish

22 THE NEXT POPE
kings re-established, and that he himself as pope would anoint
the next Polish monarch. We are far enough yet from seeing
the restoration of the Polish kingdom, and even the Polish
- cardinal does not believe that he will be raised to the papacy.
The successor to Leo XIII. will, without doubt, be an Italian;
but it must not be forgotten that one or another of the non-
Italians might theoretically be taken into account for the
papal throne. Even at the last Conclave Count Ledochowski
was not the only non-Italian whose name was thrown into the
urn. Prince Schwarzenberg, archbishop of Prague, since de-
ceased, received one vote at the third ballot, at which Pecci
was chosen pope by forty-four votes. One vote also was cast
for Oreglia di Santo Stefano; and at the next Conclave this
seventy-two-year-old doyen of the Sacred College will be to
some extent considered by the Intransigents. The Jesuits are
his patrons, two of his brothers having held places in this
order; one was on the permanent staff of the “Civiltà Cat-
-
tolica,” which is, so to speak, the “Moniteur’’ of the Jesu-
its, another was confessor at the Gesù-Church in Rome, dedi-
cated to Saint Ignatius Loyola. Oreglia, although a man
exactly suited to the Jesuits, has in reality no chance of be-
coming pope, as the cardinals will not choose a man of his
intellectual mediocrity.
Of much greater importance is the case of Cardinal Sera-
fino Varnutelli, who is now sixty-five years old. Were he to
become pope, it is almost certain that he would appoint his
younger brother, Cardinal Vincenzo Vannutelli, State secre-
tary. The appointment of Vincenzo to the State secretary-
ship would appear in some degree justified, as in the capacity

THE NExT POPE - 23
of papal nuncio at the court of Lisbon he has had the oppor-
tunity of acquiring diplomatic experience. Serafino has had
an even greater diplomatic part to play, and has seen many
countries. In this he compares favorably with some Roman
prelates, who have scarcely ever left their native soil. In
the College of Cardinals itself there are a number of such ad-
scripti glebae, who have hardly seen anything beyond the hori-
zon of the Roman Campagna. Serafino Vannutelli was first
nuncio at Brussels, and afterwards at Vienna. During the
period when he was attached to the Belgian court began that
“Culturkampf” which ended in the prime minister, Frère-
Orban, sending the papal nuncio his passports. In 1880
Serafino Vannutelli was appointed nuncio to Vienna, where he
experienced two unpleasant episodes, -that of seeing King
Humbert received with friendly welcome at the court of
Vienna, and that of witnessing the arrival of Frère-Orban, the
sworn enemy of the Curia, in the train of the Belgian mon-
arch. The latter was on the occasion of the marriage of the
Crown Prince Rudolf to the Belgian Princess Stephanie, and,
as the nuncio was obliged to be present at the many festivities
and ceremonies given in their honor, he was continually
brought into contact with his former tormentor. In Vienna
Serafino Vannutelli was forced to watch Austria-Hungary and
Italy, the Catholic monarchy and the pretended hereditary
enemy of the Holy See, drawn more and more closely together,
until they gradually came into an alliance. The princes of
the Austro-Hungarian church think well of Serafino Vannutelli,
and it is generally understood that the majority of the cardi-
nals in that monarchy will show themselves favorable to his

24 - THE NEXT POPE
candidature. The Austrian emperor, too, who has a kindly
remembrance of the time when Vannutelli was nuncio at his
court, would gladly see him pope. The same may be said of
his German ally, the Emperor William; so that in all proba-
bility Vannutelli will not only be supported by the prince-
bishop of Breslau, Cardinal Kopp, the confidential man in
Catholic matters of the Emperor William, but also by his
Polish eminence from Germany, Count Ledochowski. Count
Ledochowski is in incomparably better relations with William
II. than he was with his grandfather, who during the “Cultur-
kampf” deposed him from his place as archbishop of Posen.
It has been said that, if Vannutelli were elected by the
Holy Spirit from among the “seventy elders” of the Church,
he would assume the name of Clement XV. The very name
of Clement is in itself a programme. The last pope of this
name expunged the order of the Jesuits. The mildness and
moderation of Clement XIV. has been immortalized by Canova
in the two female figures placed upon his tomb in the church of
Santi Apostoli at Rome. -
There is another papal candidate in the person of Cardinal
Capecelatro, archbishop of Capua, to whom the Jesuits are still
less favorable than to Cardinal Serafino Vannutelli. The
order does not even reckon upon the possibility of Capecela-
tro's election. He is thought too old to wear the Tiara, being
in his seventy-seventh year. The Jesuits suppose that he will
have no chance of success, not only on account of his age, but
because they regard him as a “jettatore.” This term of
South-Italian superstition means a bringer of misfortune. A
man only needs to have done one or two awkward things to be

THE NEXT POPE 25
at once dubbed a ‘‘ jettatore,”—that is, a man over whom a
doom hangs. There are, no doubt, men in the Sacred College
who would have the courage to oppose this unworthy prejudice,
should Cardinal Capecelatro be canvassed. He might be
taken into consideration, were the cardinals, from motives of
opportunism, and in the hope of again being called together
in Conclave at an early date, to elect an old man. He is one
of the most moderate among the bishops of Italy, a patriot,
anxious for a compromise between the Curia and the nation.
His programme, like that of the late Abbot Tosti, is “Con-
ciliazione.” Capecelatro, who is the present librarian of the
Holy Roman Church, is one of the most famous Catholic ec-
clesiastical writers of the day. His work, “ St. Katherine
and the Papacy of her Time,” has been translated into many
languages. He is also the author of a book entitled “New-
man and the English Oratory,” and of “ Gladstone and the
Effects of the Vatican Decrees.” He has never been too vio-
lent in controversy with those differing in opinion from him-
self. His works, “Le Armonie della Religione col Cuore ”
(The Harmonies between Religion and the Heart), and
“Amore e Dolore Cristiano '' (Christian Love and Suffering),
show us a priest for whom religion consists in a living and
feeling heart rather than in stiff forms and observances.
When requested by the publisher Hoepli of Milan to name the
works in universal literature which he considered the best, and
to state which books had exercised the greatest influence upon
the development of his own mind and life, Cardinal Capece-
latro made a confession characteristic of the moderate thinker,
whose intellect has been richly nourished upon Italian national

26 THE NEXT POPE
literature. He said, as did Alessandro Manzoni, “I think
there can be no sort of literary beauty which could be excused,
if any single person had suffered religious or moral injury
from it.” He delights in the writings of certain scientific
men wearing the priestly garb, who recognize the spirit of
God in nature—for instance, the astronomer, Father Secchi,
in his work “L’unità delle Forze" (The Unity of Natural
Forces), the meteorologist, Father Denza, in “Le Armonie
dei Cieli’’ (The Harmonies of the Heavens), the geologian,
Abbot Stoppani, in “Acqua e Aria’’ (Water and Air), and
in “Il Bel Paeseº (The Beautiful Land). Italian romance
writers and novelists of the naturalistic school, such as the
Sicilian Verga or Gabriele D’Annunzio, find no favor in
Capecelatro’s eyes. -
Of all the Italian bishops at present wearing the purple,
Capecelatro is the only one who has always held aloof from
the turmoil of party strife. Could St. Francis of Assisi re-
visit this earth, he would see in the archbishop of Capua,
spite of his purple robe, a model of Christian humility and
universal charity. Such idealists, whose minds are far re-
moved from political ambition, and whose souls soar towards
the regions of heavenly love, are rare enough in the Italy of
our day. But it is precisely because Capecelatro is no politi-
cal champion that it is unlikely he will find much support
among the majority of Italian cardinals, who are chiefly poli-
ticians, even Intransigent politicians.
Of a far more political bent than Capecelatro is Cardinal
swampa, archbishop of Bologna, one of the Papabili. To some
his youthfulness may appear a serious objection, as he is but

THE NEXT POPE 27
forty-nine, and is the youngest of all the Italian ºardinals.
While Capecelatro is truly an Italian patriot, with a firm faith
in Italy’s present unity, Svampa longs for that epoch, long
gone by, when the idea still prevailed that the pope should
take the first place among the secular princes in Italy. What
was once the Abbot Vincenzo Gioberti's wish, that Italy should
be a confederation of States with the pope as president, is
what Svampa desired a few years ago. To this glowing pros-
pect, which presupposes the disintegration of Italy, the cardi-
nal has given his blessing. He avoids the king of Italy on
every possible occasion. When King Humbert travelled to
the Romagna for the great manoeuvres, intending to take
Bologna on his way, Archbishop Swampa left that city rather
than meet the sovereign. He never forgets that at one time
Bologna, the capital of the Emilia, belonged to the papal ter-
ritory, and he fervently desires its restoration. There are
still men enough among the cardinals who, if they could roll
back history, would be glad to see the order of things as it
was before September 20, 1870. Swampa, however, seems to
belong to those who would not rest satisfied with the Status
ante 1870, but would welcome the conditions existing before
1859, although, as Italians, they would not like to see Milan
and Venice given up to Austria. According to the views of
these men, who are more imbued with papal than with Italian
patriotism, all the territory taken from the pope should be
given back to him. In spite of the fact that the kingdom of
Italy has failed to fulfil many hopes and has produced many
disappointments, a plebiscite among the inhabitants of Fer-
rara, Bologna, Ravenna, Perugia, and Ancona would result in

28 THE NEXT POPE
a pitiable fiaseo for those who entertain the illusion that these
people long to see the papal rule restored.
Svampa, like Parocchi, has the disadvantage for a papal
candidate of being very corpulent, and both cardinals are
said not to be healthy. Their personal appearance is not in
- their favor, and, should either of them be elected, he would
present a striking contrast to the ethereal and spiritual figure
of Leo XIII.
Swampa’s candidature must, moreover, be considered in con-
nection with a very curious fact. This son of the Marches,
when bishop of Forli, occupied no very prominent position.
He is not learned like Capecelatro, nor is he so highly placed
as Rampolla, nor can he look back upon so stormy and tumul-
tuous a life as Parocchi. Why is it, then, that, whenever
the future pope is discussed, this Benjamin among the Italian
cardinals is always mentioned? Those to whom it has been
given to interpret prophecies concerning the popes, especially
when they have been already fulfilled,—Vaticinatio ex eventu,
incline to foretell the future pope now. There is a prophecy
dating from the twelfth century, and ascribed to Malachia,
archbishop of Armagh, according to which Rome, before fall-
ing into decay, would see a line of popes who are indicated by
certain symbols. The Lumen in coelo (Light in the Heavens)
is applied to Leo XIII., for the Pecci family, from whom the
pope descends, bear a comet in their escutcheon. After the
Lumen an iºnis ardens (burning flame) is to arise. The verb
‘‘ Swampare’’ denotes “flame.” Therefore it is believed
that the ancient archbishop of Armagh clearly pointed to
Archbishop Svampa, whose light, after three-quarters of a

THE NEXT POPE 29
millennium, is to shine in the papal sky. Others there are
who consider Svampa too young for the Tiara, and who apply
the iºnis ardens prophecy to Serafino Vannutelli on account of
--
his baptismal name “ Serafino,” which means a “ Seraph.”
According to Isaiah, the seraphs are celestial beings, angels
of fire or light, with six wings and with hands like men, who
guard the throne of God.
The list of probable or possible popes is by no means ex-
hausted with Rampolla, Parocchi, Serafino Vannutelli, Capece-
latro, and Svampa. Cardinal Gotti has also been frequently
--
mentioned as “Papabile ” of late. He is a Ligurian by
birth. Liguria has given several popes to the church, and
can boast of having produced one of the greatest of them,
Julius II. Gotti is a Carmelite, a bare-footed monk. His
father was a “facchino” (a carrier of burdens). But to be
of low descent is no rare thing among the cardinals: indeed,
at present there are very few of high birth. Among Italian
patrician names are those of the State secretary, Rampolla del
Tindaro, of the patriarch of Constantinople, Cardinal Casali
del Drago, and of Oreglia di Santo Stefano. Among the non-
Italian cardinals, with the exception of the Polish Count Le-
dochowski, there is none of noble blood. Not so very long
ago, in fact during the reign of Leo XIII., the Princes
Schwarzenberg and Fürstenberg and Count Schönborn of Aus-
tria were members of the College of Cardinals. All these are
now dead, and only sons of the people fill the highest offices
of the church in Austria. The archbishop of Vienna, Car-"
dinal Gruscha, is the son of an artisan.
Gotti is certainly very little known to the foreign cardinals,

30 THE NEXT POPE
but there is nothing to prevent them from giving their votes
to a man of the people, an Italian of their own class. There
have been popes enough who sprang from the lower classes.
There is no need to go as far back as Saint Peter, the Jewish
fisherman of Capernaum, or Gregory VII., the son of a joiner
of Soana, or Sixtus V., Peretti, the swineherd of Montalto.
Gotti, who as teologo del Concilio thirty years ago attended the
Vatican Ecumenical Council, in which the pretensions of the
infallible papacy against the civil power were expressed in so
startling a manner, seems himself to possess some of the spirit
of that assembly, which was much under the influence of the
Jesuits. It is supposed that on some points he agrees with
Rampolla. He has, however, this advantage over the State
secretary, which will enlist the sympathy of many of the car-
dinals, that he is not a professional politician, and that he
knows how to reserve his opinions. Unlike Parocchi, who
courts popularity, Gotti does not speak much. Unlike Ram-
polla, who possesses little scientific or literary knowledge,
Gotti has learning, though he can in no way be compared
with Capecelatro. He has busied himself principally with
mathematics and physics. He has just completed his sixty-
sixth year, and is some months younger than Parocchi, some
months older than Serafino Vannutelli. At the present moment
he appears to be the most probable candidate for the holy
chair.
--
Among the “Papabili’’ we have mentioned two bishops of
the Italian provinces, Capecelatro of Capua, and Svampa of
Bologna. There is usually much jealousy between most of
their eminences who reside in Rome, the so-called cardinals

THE NEXT POPE 31
of the Curia: and it not infrequently happens, therefore, that
a provincial bishop carries off the victory at the Conclave.
Pius IX. was bishop of Imola, and Leo XIII. bishop of Peru-
gia, when they succeeded to the Tiara. Who can say that at
the next election the lot may not fall on an Italian provincial?
Archbishop Richelmy of Turin holds one of the most distin-
guished ecclesiastical positions in the country. Many proph-
esied that his predecessor, Cardinal Alimonda, one of the first
pulpit orators of Italy, would become pope after Leo XIII.
He died, however, ten years ago, just at the moment when
public opinion greeted him as the “Papa futuro.” In the
meantime other “Papabili’’ have also died; Cardinal
Agostini, patriarch of Venice; Archbishop Battaglini of
Bologna, Swampa’s predecessor; Monaco la Valletta, who pre-
ceded Oreglia as doyen of the Sacred College; and Cardinal
Sanfelice, archbishop of Naples. All these were looked upon
as papal candidates.
Death has foiled many prophecies regarding the successor
to Leo XIII. A prudent man, when he speaks of the future
pope, will not prophesy, but rather confine himself to reflec-
tions on the possibilities, or, at best, the probabilities. In
this article the probable candidates have been named; the
names of those who are only possible have been for the most
part suppressed. Otherwise it would be necessary to mention
a dozen and a half of Italian cardinals. Only a few of those
whose names are in every mouth have been discussed. The
fact of being much spoken about may easily cause them to
fail; the man whose name is upon every lip is not always the
successful one. The same thing may happen at a papal elec-

32 THE NEXT POPE
tion in Rome as at a presidential election in France. The
apparently insignificant man, the cipher, is sometimes more
welcome than the man of marked individuality. A Sadi
Carnot and a Felix Faure, secondary figures in French poli-
tics, were one day surprised to find themselves at the head of
the republic. When two rivals dispute a seat, a third one,
hitherto unthought of, may step in and win. Certainly at the
last Conclave the cardinals made the choice which had already
been foreseen by many wise Italians, and the election of
Pecci was no surprise. In the last Conclave but one, which
took place thirty-two years earlier, a man was elected whom
nobody had imagined would be the future pope. Who will
venture to say whether one of the aforementioned cardinals,
or one who is as yet in the background, will be victor at the
next Conclave? Even the most ambitious among their emi-
nences is conversant with the proverb, Esce dal Conclave car-
dinale, chi vi entra papa: he who enters the Conclave as pope,
leaves it a cardinal.