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THE COMING PEACE. 
 
 ORATION 
 
 DELIVERED BEFORE THE 
 
 City Council and Citizens of Boston 
 
 ONE HUNDRED AND FIFTEENTH ANNIVERSARY OF 
 THE DECLARATION OF INDEPENDENCE, 
 
 JULY 4, 1891, 
 
 JOSIAH QUI]^CY 
 
 AMERICAN PEACE SOCIETY, 
 
 Xo. 1 Somerset Street. 
 
 1891 . 
 
/ 
 
 THE COMING PEACE 
 
 ORATION U^ 
 
 DELIVERED BEFORE THE 
 
 City Council and Citizens of Boston, 
 
 ONE HUNDRED AND FIFTEENTH ANNIVERSARY OF 
 THE DECLARATION OF INDEPENDENCE, 
 
 JULY 4, 1891, 
 
 1 
 
 JOSIAH QUIJN^CY 
 
 AMERICAN PEACE SOCIETY, 
 
 No. 1 Somerset Street. 
 18 9 1. 
 
 J 
 

1 Somerset St., Boston, July 13, 1891. 
 
 JosiAH QuiNCY, Esq. : — 
 
 Dear Sir, — Allow me to haud you a copy of Resolutions 
 unanimously adopted by the Executive Committee of the 
 American Peace Society, July 13, 1891: — 
 
 ^^ Besolved, That the thanks of the American Peace Society 
 are hereby extended to Josiah (-^uincy, Esq., for his Fourth 
 of July Oration delivered at the request of the City of 
 Boston. 
 
 " We hail its prophecy and proofs of ' the coming peace ' 
 and his declaration that ' the abolition of war stctnds forth 
 preeminently as the greatest reform measure that man is now 
 called upon to undertake^'' as worthy of tlje occasion, and 
 the era in w^hich we live. 
 
 "Since Charles Sumner's Oration on 'The True Grandeur 
 of Nations,' delivered July 4, 1845, we liuow of no address 
 better calculated to advance the cause of Peace to which 
 this Society has been devoted for sixty-three years, and we 
 hereby respe'ctfully request Mr. Quincy to furnish this Society 
 with a copy of it for publication, and as wide circulation 
 as we can give it." 
 
 Very respectfully, 
 
 Rowland B. Howard, 
 
 Secretary. 
 
 Boston, Mass., July 22, 1891. 
 
 Rev. Rowland B. Howard, Sec'y American Peace Society: — 
 
 Dear Sir, — I beg to acknowledge the receipt of your 
 letter of July 13, enclosing a copy of the Resolutions 
 adopted by the American Peace Society. I appreciate very 
 highly the action of the Society, and I am glad to send 
 you herewith a copy of the Oration for publication by it. 
 
 Yours very truly, 
 
 JosiAH Quincy. 
 
THE COMING PEACE. 
 
 Me. Mayor a^'d Fellow-citizens : — 
 
 For the one hundred and eighth time the 
 niunicipaUty of Boston to-day invites her citizens 
 to join in celebrating the greatest political anni- 
 versary that recurs in the calendar of time. 
 Ever since the Fourth of July 1783, when the 
 independence of the United States, declared seven 
 years before, had at last been acknowledged by 
 Great Britain, the day when this nation took its 
 place among the powers of the earth has been 
 commemorated in this city by an unbroken line 
 of municipal orators. The elaborate and schol- 
 arly oration of the past, full of classical, lite- 
 rary, and historical allusion, has almost passed 
 away, and is no longer expected; yet it is with 
 diffidence that I enter the excellent felloAvship 
 of those who have preceded me in this office, 
 and attempt to add anything to the thoughts 
 which this occasion has sugfo-ested. 
 
 The i-ecurrence of a national anniversary re- 
 
() O K A T ION. 
 
 minds us tliat ihc works of incn arc not fixed 
 and ])t'i'nianrnt, l)iit constantly gi'owing' and 
 changing". Nations and cities have tlieir bii-th, 
 their yoiitli, and tlieii* maturity. As the child is 
 transformed in growing into the man, so the 
 community is often so changed by the la]ise of 
 time that it seems to lose its very identity. 
 The Boston which heard Di'. John AYai-i-en de- 
 Tner her first Fourth of July oration in 1783 
 has disappeared, and left scarcely a trace behind. 
 The ground ui)()n whicli she stood, and the 
 harbor in which her ships rode, still remain; 
 yet even these are so altered by the hand of 
 man that our predecessors of a century ago 
 woidd scarce!}^ recognize them. Of that foi*mer 
 Boston little is left but the Old South Church 
 and King's Chapel, the Old State House, the 
 ancient burial grounds, and the Common. Great 
 indeed are the changes which the town and city 
 has seen since this municipal observance was in- 
 stituted. Her inhabitants have increased from 
 some ten thousand to four hundred and fifty 
 thousand. A po^iulation almost Avholly native by 
 immediate descent, as well as Iw birth, has l)een 
 replaced b}^ a population of which one-thii-d is 
 of foreign birth and two-thirds are of foreign 
 
JULY 4,1891. 7 
 
 parentage; and to-day one-half of the people of 
 that town which George III. fonnd so rebellions 
 come of ancestors who were loyal snbjects of 
 the British throne long aftei* the close of the 
 revolution. In religion, Boston has seen the 
 Church of Rome increasing in the home of 
 Puritanism until nearly one-half of her population 
 is included within its fold. Manufactures have 
 replaced commerce as the leading occupation of 
 her citizens. Fort Hill has been torn down, and 
 the Back Bay has been filled up to be the site 
 of her finest residences. The railroad and the 
 street railway, operated by forces which the last 
 century scarcely knew, daily bring their tens of 
 thousands to swell her trade. 
 
 If Boston has changed, the great world be- 
 yond her limits has changed no less. In 1783 
 that world scarcely knew what representative 
 and responsible government meant; it did not 
 know at all what popular government meant on 
 any large scale. Venice and Genoa alone called 
 themselves republics; the SAviss Confederation, 
 the German free cities, the United Provinces of 
 the IS^etherlands, and Great Britain lived under 
 institutions of some freedom; but elsewhere abso- 
 lute monarchy or autocracy ruled. Louis XYI. sat 
 
8 OK A T I O N . 
 
 upon tlu' llirone of France, whicli lie was to 
 K'ave ten years later for the scailbld. Frederick 
 the Great was still in the last years of his 
 reign in Prussia. Charles III. was King' of 
 Spain. Cathei'ine the Great was Empress of 
 Russia. To-day out of the principal independent 
 nations of the globe, forty-foui* in number, 
 twenty-three ai'c republics, and six of these — 
 Mexico, Brazil, the Argentine Republic, Colum- 
 bia, Venezuela, and Switzerland — are federal 
 republics after the type of the United States. 
 Even of the twenty-one countries having a 
 monarchical oi' imperial form of government, 
 fourteen enjoy i'ei)resentative ])arliamentary insti- 
 tutions, over which the nominal monarch has only 
 a partial control. Thus only seven autocratic 
 governments of any importance now remain in the 
 world, those of Russia, China, Turkey, Persia, 
 Si*^ 1, Morocco, and Madagascar. 
 
 In 1783 there was scarcely a written consti- 
 tution in existence. To-day, following the ex- 
 ample of the United States, all of the rejniblics, 
 and all of tlie limited monarchies except Great 
 Britain and Sweden, have formal, written con- 
 stitutions, whicli si'cure the liberties of t.^' j people 
 and limit the ])ower of their rulers. In form, at 
 
JULY 4,180 1. 9 
 
 least, the whole American continent, with the 
 exception of Canada, ]N"ewfoundlancl, the West 
 India colonies, and a few others of small impor- 
 tance, is now under republican government; and 
 even Canada, although nominally presided over 
 by the representative of the British crown, is for 
 all internal purposes practically governed by her 
 own people, through jDarliamentary institutions, as 
 completely as the United States. 
 
 The peculiar significance of this anniversary 
 lies, therefore, in the fact that the event which 
 it recalls marks an epoch in the history and in the 
 political development of mankind. The Declara- 
 tion of Independence was regarded in 1776 and 
 long afterward from a purely national point of 
 view; the Fourth of July appealed to the patri- 
 otism of the American rather than to the laro-er 
 
 o 
 
 interests of the citizen of the world. But look- 
 ing back to-day upon the mighty and benei;.?ent 
 influence which the political ideas first put into 
 practice by our forefothers have had upon the 
 earth, — upon the new aspect which they have 
 given to civilization, upon the new relations 
 which they have established and are still estab- 
 lishiug '^etween nations, — Ave feel that we are 
 carried beyond that narrow and selfish patriotism, 
 
10 O R A T I N . 
 
 that exclusive regard for tlic interests of one 
 people, which lias too often proved a eni-se, in- 
 stead of a l)lessing, to the world. We are raised 
 to that higher an/i nobler view which recognizes 
 not only that all men of one nation are free 
 and equal and are joined together as members 
 of a community, but that all peoples and all 
 nations form one great brotherhood of man, and 
 are linked together in one human destiny. As 
 the individual becomes useful and honored by 
 livingy for his felloAv-men, and developing his 
 powp's only that he may be capable of rendering 
 his brother better service, so a nation wins 
 respect, not by shutting itself up in a selfish 
 isolation from the world, but by so developing 
 its capacities and resources that they may con- 
 tribute to the general progress of civilization and 
 the elevation of all mankind. 
 
 The most obvious way in which the United 
 States has alread}^ rendered a great service to 
 the other peoples of the earth has been in 
 opening its doors to receive them among its 
 citizens and offering its territory for their settle- 
 ment. While there have been in the remote 
 ])ast, under different conditions of life, great 
 migrations of whole tribes or nations which might 
 
JULY 4, 1891. 11 
 
 compare in magnitude with the movement of 
 population to this country, never in history has 
 there been such a steady flow of immigration 
 as the United States has received since 1820. 
 Never has a nation contained so large a number 
 of inhabitants of foreign birth or of foreign 
 parentage as does ours to-day. Between 1820 
 and 1890 over 15,000,000 people, nearly one- 
 quarter of the present population of the country, 
 crossed the Atlantic to make their homes upon 
 this side. In ten years alone, from 1880 to 1890, 
 while 7,000,000 were added to our population by 
 birth, over 5,000,000 were added by immigration; 
 a number that exceeds the whole population of the 
 Kingdom of Holland or of the Dominion of Can- 
 ada, and equals the population of L-eland, or of 
 Scotland and Wales combined. The Anglo-Saxon 
 and the Celt, the Teuton and the Slav, the Scan- 
 dinavian and the Latin, have all contributed to 
 swell this stream. Never, probably, has there been 
 a country so broadly cosmopolitan in the origin 
 of its people as is the United States to-day, and 
 never have large numbers of immigrants been so 
 readity assimilated and so thoroughly imbued with 
 the spirit of new institutions. However a change 
 in our circumstances, in the condition of Europe, 
 
12 CITATION. 
 
 and esjiecially in the character ol" iiuniigi'atioii, 
 may make restrictions npon this free flow of 
 population desirable for the iiiture, nothing' can 
 take from us the composite character of our citi- 
 zenship, or the glory of having furnished new 
 homes to so many millions of our fellow-men, 
 under better and freer conditions than the old 
 world could offer. 
 
 With this much by way of introduction, let 
 me come to the special subject upon which I 
 shall address you to-day; a subject as old as 
 man himself, yet still first in importance among 
 the problems which command the attention of the 
 statesman and the philanthropist and affect the 
 welfare of humanity. 
 
 The first of these Fourth of July orations Avas 
 spoken a few months aftei' the signing of the 
 preliminary treaty of peace between the United 
 States and Great Britain. The orator of that 
 day, wdio had served as a surgeon with the 
 revolutionary forces and knew what war was, 
 spoke with deep feeling of the losses and the 
 suffering which the long conflict had involved, 
 and hailed the return of peace as a supreme 
 blessing. Sixty-two years later, in 1845, Charles 
 Sumner delivered on this same occasion his oi*a- 
 
JULY 4, 1891. 13 
 
 tion on " The True Grandeur of Is'ations," the 
 best known of any of our Boston Fourth of 
 July addresses, which, by its masterly condem- 
 nation of wai- and unflinching- analysis of its 
 true chai-actei-, won for its author a high place 
 among advanced political thinkers. Reflecting 
 upon the present aspect of the question which 
 he treated and upon the new light which 
 the history of the last half century has thrown 
 upon it, I have felt that no theme would 
 be more worthy of this anniversary, more in 
 harmony with the great thoughts which it re- 
 calls, or more full of vital import for the present 
 and the future, than that of The Coming Peace. 
 Let me attempt, therefore, within the limits im- 
 posed upon me, to point out some of the great 
 forces which are now working on the side of 
 permanent peace and .bringing its attainment within 
 the range of vision of the statesman and the 
 philosopher, and to show the connection of this 
 subject with the past history and present tendencies 
 of our own country. If in doing this I dwell 
 chiefly upon considerations connected with the phys- 
 ical welfare and progress of mankind, let it not be 
 understood that increase of wealth and comfort is 
 held up as the only worthy object of national 
 
14 ORATION. 
 
 endeavor. A purely material civilization, l)uilt 
 upon selfishness instead of brotlierliood, destitute 
 of all high ideas and spiritual aims, carries within 
 itself the seeds of its own inevitable decay or 
 downfall. But it is not such a civilization that 
 we need expect as the result of peace. 
 
 In this age of i-eforms the abolition of Avar — 
 and I include under that term the condition of 
 armed peace which is so peculiarly a feature of 
 our time — stands forth preeminently as the great- 
 est reform measure that man is now called upon to 
 undertake. Others are partial: this is universal. 
 Others may succeed in accomplishing some good: 
 this is sure to bring widespread blessings. Others 
 may improve society or government: this will give 
 the only true basis for society or government to 
 rest upon. Concerning other measures for the 
 amelioration of the world, men may honestly differ; 
 but no one can dispute the beneficence of this, or 
 set a limit upon its good effects. Political economy 
 and religion, science and ethics, the philosophy of 
 politics and the philosophy of history, alike declare 
 the vast mischief that man has suffered, and is 
 still suffering, from war. It degrades the condition 
 of labor and prevent^ the natural growth of capital; 
 it perverts the moral nature of man; it prevents 
 
JULY 4,189 1. 15 
 
 the evolution of a true civilization; it is the great 
 buttress of autocratic rule and the chief obstruction 
 in the path of popular government. Its crushing 
 burden, while heavier upon some nations, weighs 
 down all. The relief that assured peace would 
 bring would be felt in the remotest corners of the 
 earth, and imagination can scarcely j^icture the 
 benefits which would follow in its train. 
 
 The change in the character of warfare is the 
 first subject that demands our attention as a con- 
 sideration against its continuance. In no field of 
 human endeavor have methods been more completely 
 revolutionized in the present century by the progress 
 of invention. The men of the revolution would 
 be almost as much at a loss to understand modern 
 methods of fighting as the Indians were to com- 
 prehend those of our ancestors. The breech-loading 
 and repeating rifle, the machine gun, the long-range 
 cannon, the armor-plated vessel, the hundred-ton 
 gun, the submarine torpedo, all would be new and 
 strange to them. The quick transportation of 
 troops by steam on land and sea and the military 
 use of the telegraph have alone been sufficient to 
 reverse completely old conditions of conflict. What 
 is to be the effect of these modern methods — just 
 beginning to approach their full development, only 
 
16 O K A T ION. 
 
 partially tried on land in one great contlict, and tiiat 
 twenty 3- ears ago — n])on the future of warfare? 
 
 In the first place, recent discoveries have made 
 quite clear what has long secerned probable, that in 
 the contest between the forces of destruction and 
 the means of defence, the ultimate victory must rest 
 with the former. Man's power to destroy by means 
 of the liigii explosives of which so many are now 
 known, exjjlosives in comparison with which the 
 action of gunpowder becomes almost insignificant, 
 must far outrun his powei* to contrive adequate 
 defences. The problem of destruction is now a 
 very simple one in itself, however great may be 
 the field for the exercise of ingenuity in its solution; 
 it consists merely in directing explosives to the 
 point of attack. Let a properly charged torpedo 
 strike the heaviest armored vessel that can be put 
 afloat, and she sinks to the bottom of the sea; let 
 a sufficient charge of dynamite reach any fort that 
 can be built above ground, and it is shattered and 
 dismantled. Science and invention have progressed 
 far enough to make it probable that man will in 
 the future be able to navigate the air much as he 
 now navigates the water, and that he will explore 
 the depths of the ocean as he now skims its sur- 
 face. Against the submarine toi-pedo boat capalile 
 
JULY4,1891. 17 
 
 of carrying a crew to direct its movements, against 
 the air-ship dropping explosives from the skies, 
 no means of defence will avail. When the arts 
 of destruction have Avon their final victory, the 
 wars which call them into activity must of neces- 
 sity cease. 
 
 This brings us to another influence which tends 
 towards peace: the enormous cost of modern war 
 and preparations for war, and the immense scale 
 upon which they must be conducted. The best 
 estimates and information show that the six great 
 powers of Europe, namely. Great Britain, France, 
 Germany, Italy, Austria, and Russia, have nearly 
 3,000,000 men in actual service in time of peace 
 in their armies and navies, while the rest of 
 Europe has 1,000,000 more. The number of fully 
 trained men in the reserves of these great powers 
 is fully equal to twice the number in their stand- 
 ing armies, or 6,000,000 in all, while the number 
 of more or less trained men in Europe, enrolled 
 in the military service and liable to be called out 
 in case of war, amounts to at least 10,000,000, in 
 addition to those counted in the standing armies. 
 It is safe to say that never in the recorded history 
 of the human race have such large numbers of 
 men been under arms in time of peace, or so 
 
IS O R A T I O N . 
 
 many been ready to be called into active service, 
 as is the case in Europe to-day; and the destruc- 
 tive power of these armies and navies^hgfs never 
 been approached. All this means an /enormous 
 financial burden, and makes the waging of war 
 more a question of iinance than it has ever been 
 before. The direct money '^•yx'o of keeping uj) the 
 armies and navies of the six great powers of 
 Euro^DC alone is upward of $600,000,000 a year, 
 and the indirect cost by the loss of productive 
 labor must be fully as great; and in order to 
 measure f])ro])erly the cost of war we must add 
 another sum of at least equal magnitude for the 
 annual interest upon the war debts of these coun- 
 tries. The enormous waste of national resources 
 which these figures feebly express, and the ever- 
 growing burden which the further development of 
 the ai't of war will impose, must inevitably lead to 
 some readjustment of international relations. The 
 expense of the instruments of conflict constantly 
 increases Avith their complexity. Xo sooner is 
 one form of rifle jierfected than an improved type 
 supplants it and the old weapon is thrown aside; 
 with new methods of attack, fortifications and 
 defences become obsolete and must be replaced by 
 others at enormous expense; before a ship of war 
 
JULY 4, 1891. 19 
 
 has been launched more than a few years neAv 
 vessels are designed and must be built by the 
 nations which are in the struggle for supremacy. 
 All this means a much greater training for the 
 soldier than was formerly requisite; he must be 
 carefully educated in handling his weapons and 
 must understand ^ -^hing of military science. 
 The countries of Europe, groaning beneath the 
 weight of 122,000,000,000 of indebtedness, many of 
 them adding to the burden by constantly recur- 
 ring deficits, must in the end face one of two 
 alternatives: national bankruptcy and rejjudiation, 
 or international disarmament. 
 
 Even our own recent experience in the United 
 States has shown that the waging of war under 
 a democratic government seems to involve, through 
 the payment of pensions, a new and unforeseen 
 expense of vast proportions, continuing for half a 
 century or more after peace has been reestab- 
 lished. Our pension roll to-day amounts to more 
 than the annual cost of the largest army in Europe, 
 and the number /of our pensioners , is equal to that 
 of the soldiers in any army but that of Kussia. 
 Through pensions and interest on war debt we 
 are to-day /making an annual payment of over 
 $150,000,000 for a conflict which closed more than 
 
20 K A T ION. 
 
 a quarter ot" a ccntmy ag'o. Ex})C'n.sive as is the 
 conduct of war under a monarchy, onr experience 
 has shown that its cost is greater yet under a 
 democracy. 
 
 Hostilities under modern conditions arc likely to 
 be as expensive in human life as they are in i)roi)- 
 erty. On the sea, a ship with a crew of a thou- 
 sand men may be instantly sunk ; on land, if armies 
 engage each other in open battle, the loss which 
 modern Aveapons can inHict Avill l)e appalling. A 
 regiment in line can be mown down by machine 
 guns like grain beneath the reaper's sickle. Our 
 civil war cost over linlf a million lives; with the 
 progress which warfare has made, the next Euro- 
 pean war may cost far more. 
 
 Another conspicuous agency in promoting peace 
 is the growing tendency toward popularizing govern- 
 ment and placing it upon a basis of responsibility 
 to the people, if not upon one of pure democracy. 
 Europe is only just beginning to feel the perma- 
 nent etfects of the American revolution and of the 
 French revolution. After a century of growth, 
 republican ideas are stronger than ever before. 
 The French republic appears at last to be so 
 firmly established that only some great convulsion 
 can overthrow it. En<;land has nearl\ readied 
 
J U L Y 4 , 1 8 9 1 . 21 
 
 manhood suftVag'e, and enjoys under the form of a 
 monarchy popukir government in the fullest sense, 
 in some respects even outdoing us in democracy; 
 in Germany imperialism has had to take up state 
 socialism in order to retain its hold on the people, 
 and if the pressure of military danger could be 
 removed that country would make rapid strides 
 toward government of the people; even in Italy, 
 Spain, and Portugal the suffrage is widely ex- 
 tended, and republican ideas have a strong foot- 
 hold. This growth of democracy has an important 
 bearing upon the future of war. In the first place, 
 it removes many of the reasons which have for- 
 merly led to conflict. With the diminishing influ- 
 ence of monarchs the causes of enmity arising out 
 of the relations of ruling dynasties ai'e fast being 
 removed, indeed have already largely disappeared. 
 The casus helli must now be one which arises out 
 of international, not out of inter-dynastic, relations. 
 Again, the direct and responsible representatives 
 of the people are not likely to go to war unless 
 the people themselves demand it; and making all 
 allowance for national feelings of enmity, affect- 
 ing whole peoples and races, — such as perhaps 
 still exist between France and Germany, and 
 anciently existed between England and France, — 
 
22 R A T ION. 
 
 coiitiicts l)c'twei'ii nations are less likely to originate 
 from sentiments shared by all theii" eitizens than 
 from the jealousies or ambitions of a fcAv rulers. 
 
 Another influence that makes strongly for i)eace 
 is the marvellous growth that has taken place in 
 the last half century in the intercourse between 
 nations and the closeness of their relations, arising" 
 out of the improvement of means of transportation 
 and communication. These more intimate relations 
 come from increased eommei'ce; from the develo]:)- 
 ment of international finance; from the floAV of 
 population from one country to another for settle- 
 ment or travel; from international arrangements in 
 relation to such matters as the postal and tele- 
 graph service; and from closer professional, educa- 
 tional, and literary intercourse. 
 
 The volume of international commerce, in spite 
 of hostile tarifls, is constantly augmenting at i\ 
 rapid pace, and, notwithstanding temporary move- 
 ments in the opposite direction, the thoughtful 
 observe!- can clearly see that the tendency of the^ 
 civilized nations is inevitably in the direction of 
 freer trade and the lowering, if not the abolition, 
 of barriers raised for its obstruction. The foreii>'n 
 commerce of England, France, and Germany alone 
 for 1889 was consideral)lv over ei^'ht billion dollai-s. 
 
J U L Y 4 , 1 8 9 1 . 23 
 
 Already a reaction is seen on the continent against 
 the policy which stands in the way of a yet larger 
 and freer interchange of prodncts. The cable has 
 recently bronght ns the news of a possible cns- 
 toms union between Germany, Austria, Italy, and 
 Switzerland, and such an event would mean a 
 profound change in the commercial relations of 
 Europe. On our own continent the contest is no 
 longer between the policy of prohibitory duties 
 and freer commerce with all nations, but between 
 the latter policy and special arrangements for re- 
 ciprocal trade with particular countries. 
 
 International financial interests have never ap- 
 proached their present magnitude, and must be 
 powerfully felt in the future in the interest of 
 peace. There are in the first place enormous 
 holdings of national obligations outside of the 
 country issuing them. The bonds of Italy, Spain, 
 Portugal, Russia, Turkey, and other countries are 
 held in very large amounts all over Europe, and 
 are quoted on all the great bourses. The very 
 country that may be urged toward war by politi- 
 cal considerations may be held back by financial 
 ones. The fact that Egypt is to-day practically in 
 the hands of a receiver, in order that the interest 
 on her bonds held by foreigners may be paid, is .a 
 
24 O K A T I O N . 
 
 striking illustration of the power of these inter- 
 national financial interests. The frequent necessity 
 of raising large loans in foreign markets as a 
 preparation for hostilities is also not to be over- 
 looked. Then Ave must remember that foreign 
 interests in railways and industrial enterprises of 
 various sorts have never been so large as at 
 present. With the decline in the rate of interest 
 which takes place in fully developed countries, 
 capital looks for a better rate of return abroad; it 
 was never so mobile, so easily directed from one 
 counti-y to another, as it is to-day. The modern 
 ca2)italist has no political or race prejudices; he 
 looks merely to security and profit. The citizens 
 of one country thus become greatly interested in 
 the prosperity and welfare of another; and these 
 are largeh' dependent on the maintenance of 
 peace. 
 
 The extraordinary immigration into tlii>^ coun- 
 try has already been mentioned; to a lesser degree 
 this transferability of population is noticeable 
 even within the limits of Europe. Modern means 
 of transportation enable lal^or to flow from one 
 country to another, according to tlie condition of 
 demand and supply. Every settlement, or even 
 temporary residence, of citizens of one country in 
 
JULY4,1891. 25 
 
 another must tend to promote a broad cosmopoli- 
 tanism and make war less likely. In a less degree 
 travel, upon the enormous scale that it is now con- 
 ducted, must give the people of the different nations 
 a better loiowledge of each other, and so promote, 
 however imperceptibly, a better understanding and 
 more friendly feeling in foreign relations. 
 
 The influence of international arrangements for 
 the regulation of such matters of common interest 
 as the postal service, patents, copyrights, coinage, 
 and weights and measures, are considerable factors 
 toward the growth of permanent peace. The Con- 
 ference of American Kepublics, recently held at 
 Washington, hoAvever small its actual and imme- 
 diate results may have been, is perhaps the most 
 conspicuous and significant instance ever seen of 
 the friendly meeting of many independent nations 
 to consider subjects of mutual concern. Already, 
 by the action of the governments represented, and 
 at their joint expense, the surveys are being made 
 for an international and an intercontinental railroad 
 to bring them into closer communication. Then 
 there are the great industrial exhibitions, which 
 began only with the last half of this century: surely 
 they are producing effects Avhich cannot be left out 
 of the account. 
 
26 ORATION. 
 
 liitL'iMialional organi/alions of jM'ofession.s or 
 trades, like that of the physieians, whieli holds its 
 annual meetings successively in different countries; 
 international schools of i)olitical thought, like that 
 of socialism; educational institutions, like the great 
 universities of Germany and France, and the schools 
 of painting in Paris and' Rome, which draw ])upils 
 from all quarters of the earth; the translation and 
 circulation in many countries of all the great works 
 of modern literature; all these influences tend 
 strongly tOAvard bringing about that liberality of 
 spirit and community of thought which is the 
 deadly foe of national hatred. The increase in 
 the knowledge of foreign languages and the grow- 
 ing preponderance of four or five great tongues 
 should also be mentioned; and one of the most 
 characteristic attempts of our time is that of creat- 
 ing a new artificial language, to serve as the com- 
 mon medimn of communication of all mankind. 
 
 Another genei-al influence which advances peace 
 is the growth of modern industry, and of the facili- 
 ties for popular education which accompany that 
 growth. AVhile they may exist side by side for a 
 time, industrialism and militarism are in the long- 
 run incompatible Avith each other. Their aims are 
 iitterly at vai'iance, the whole sp'wh of the one is 
 
JULY-1,1S91. 27 
 
 antagonistic to that of the other; the soldier only 
 exists as a parasite npon the operative, and when 
 the latter refuses longer to nourish him, he must 
 either starve or work. The rulers of the past had 
 to govern a people largely rural and agricultural, 
 ignorant and obedient to authority; those of the 
 present have to deal, in the leading, progressive 
 nations, wi^h a population that is largely urban and 
 industrial. The tendency of people to concentrate 
 in cities and large toAvns is one of the most marked 
 facts that confronts us to-day, and it is full of im- 
 portance and significance. Industrialism is the 
 cause of modern popular education, because it 
 effects that concentration of population which is a 
 necessary condition of general instruction, and be- 
 cause much of its work demands a certain degree 
 of mental training, hitherto not so necessary for 
 the work required in agriculture. This instruction, 
 slight though it may be, inevitably tends toward 
 the overthrow of the military regime, which has 
 in the past rested mainly upon the ignorance of the 
 people. Above all, the growing popular compre- 
 hension of economics, and of the effect and inci- 
 dence of taxation, must be a powerful foctor in 
 checking future wars. 
 
 ^ext in the list of jDacific influences is the con- 
 
28 ORATION. 
 
 solidation or unification in a great political aggre- 
 gate of states formerly indej^endent, the most 
 striking instances of whicli in recent times have 
 been seen in the formation of the Kingdom of Italy 
 and of the Em[)ire of Germany. It mnst, indeed, 
 be conceded that while such a union removes the 
 danger of warfare between the states whicli join 
 together, it seems for the present only to lead to a 
 greater scale of military pi'eparati(^n for defence 
 against foreign countries. Yet its tendency in 
 the end will clearly be a pacific one. An agree- 
 ment between a few states is much easier to bring 
 about than one between many. The affairs of na- 
 tions, like those of industry, can be managed with 
 less friction when a few men can enter into engage- 
 ments of wide and lar-reaching scope. A¥ith the 
 absolute control of the destinies of Europe lodged 
 in the hands of a few great powers, a small num- 
 ber of influential statesmen should be able at an 
 oppoi-tune moment to secure its permanent peace. 
 
 Among the civilizing movements of the age 
 Avhich are now making foi* peace, the growth of the 
 sentiment of humanity, of international solidarity, 
 of the brotherhood of man, must be set down 
 as one of tlie most important. The foi'ces before 
 touched upon, though partly connected with the 
 
JULY4,1891. 29 
 
 intellectual life of mankind, have mainly been 
 related to its material well-being. But this last 
 influence rests upon the perception of the spiritual 
 and eternal which underlies the material and the 
 mental, and transcends both. In no respect has 
 the growth of the race been more marked dur- 
 ing the present century than in the development 
 of those qualities which are described by the 
 word humanity. Institutions and organizations of 
 charity and benevolence, of which this city has 
 so many, are the growth of the present century. 
 Even with the development of modern warfare 
 there have sprung up great voluntary organiza- 
 tions to mitigate its horrors and to lighten its 
 sufferings, to give aid to those who have been 
 disabled by its perils and to carry succor to the 
 widow ' and the orphan. Side by side with the 
 heroes of the battlefield we have in modern times 
 placed the heroines of the hospital. Political and 
 social philosophies based on universal bi-other- 
 hood, teaching the doctrines of world-wide de- 
 mocracy and equality and of the true communit}^ 
 of all human interests, are at last reaching the 
 great body of the people and appealing to their 
 minds and hearts. More and more is it recoff- 
 nized that under modern conditions the na- 
 
30 ORATION. 
 
 tions of the earth are di-awn together and made 
 one people. The soeial })roblein and tlie Labor 
 problem are international in their yeope, and 
 mnst be international in their solution; for, how- 
 ever the interests of a class in one nation may 
 l)e hostile to the interests of a class in another, 
 the interests of the masses of the people are 
 everywhere and always the same. Injustice can- 
 not exist in one conntr}'^ without inflicting harm 
 on others. B}^ lifting the burdens in one commu- 
 nity the life of all mankind is made a little bettei". 
 The social readjuster cannot i)roceed far without 
 discovering that, if he should succeed in cai'ry- 
 ing out his plans for improvement in his own 
 nation, it would be swamped by immigration 
 from all othei's; the lal)or reformer soon learns, 
 as the imperial young ruler of Germany lately 
 recognized by calling an international labor con- 
 ference at Berlin, that any radical steps for 
 the elevation of the manual workers call for 
 international action. The industi'ial organization, 
 when effected ujion that more equitable basis for 
 Avhich good men are striving, must finally bring 
 us to that awakening of the race consciousness 
 which gives the truest perception of the purposes 
 of life. 
 
J U L Y 4 , 1 8 9 1 . 31 
 
 In this connection, one fact which tends 
 strongly to the growth of this broad hnmanity 
 should not be overlooked • I allude to the great 
 change that has taken place in the position of 
 woman. After being kept through the recorded 
 history of the world, with rare exceptions, in the 
 position of the drudge or the plaything of man, 
 withont any place of her own in the body social 
 or the body politic, woman to-day finds in the 
 most advanced nations that nearly all professions 
 and occupations are open to her; and if she is 
 not yet accorded the franchise, she is admitted 
 to have an equal interest with man in political 
 questions and an equal right to form her own 
 opinions and to declare them. The influence of 
 woman is to-day a most potent factor in all 
 humanitarian movements, and thei'efore is indi- 
 rectly a check upon war; and as her sijhere of 
 influence and of action goes on widening, she 
 must be strongly felt as a direct power in favoi" 
 of the maintenance of peace. 
 
 The removal in modern times of many of the 
 causes which formerly led to hostilities is worthy 
 of notice. With the acceptance of the idea of 
 religious toleration, diflferences of creed no longer 
 furnish the incentive to war which they have so 
 
32 ORATION. 
 
 often clone in tlie past. Interference in the in- 
 ternal affairs of other countries is limited to semi- 
 civilized states, and the doctrine of the Holy 
 Alliance, that Avar could i)roperly be waged 
 against a country on account of obnoxious 
 changes in its political institutions, has become 
 a curiosity of history. . With the occupation of 
 almost every portion of the earth's surface, the 
 occasion of conflicts for the possession of new 
 territory is removed; and we have lately seen the 
 fiTeater part of the onlv continent that still re- 
 mains unsettled by civilized men amicably divided 
 between the nations of Europe. The change in 
 the relation between colonies and the mother 
 country no longer leaves room for such a war 
 as that of the revolution. The same nation that 
 imposed vexatious laws upon the American colo- 
 nies, and would not allow the bond of connec- 
 tion to be severed until hostilities had lasted for 
 seven years, has accorded to Canada and Aus- 
 tralia almost absolute powers of self-government, 
 and Avould not fire a shot to keep either of them 
 in the British empire against the Avill of its 
 people. The doctrine of preserving the balance 
 of poAver in Europe, Avhich in former times Avas 
 held to justify hostile measures against any state 
 
JULY4,1891. 33 
 
 which was acquiring a preponderating- strength, 
 has become completely obsolete. 
 
 The neutralization of small states by treaty be- 
 tween the great powers is significant as confin- 
 ing the sphere of conflict. Thus Switzerland and 
 Belgium have both been eliminated f"om possible 
 European struggles, and the neutrality of their 
 territory has been formally guaranteed. By the 
 extension of international law the rights of neutrals 
 and of non-combatants have been largely pro- 
 tected. By the Geneva Convention of 1864 the 
 hospital service was placed under the protection 
 of the Red Cross. Just as the growth of the 
 common law restrained the action of the indi- 
 vidual and forced him to regard the interests of 
 others, so the growth of a common law of nations 
 has surrounded their action in war with a con- 
 stantly growing body of regulations, of which all 
 civilized countries recognize the binding force ; 
 and regulated warfare is a long step toward 
 peace. 
 
 The actual nature of military conflict and the 
 horrors of battle have never before been brought 
 home to the great body of the people as they 
 have been in our time ; and the more genei'ally 
 war is understood the less likely it is to be 
 
34: ORATION. 
 
 tolerated. The inodern newspaper lays before 
 its hundreds of thousands of readers a graphic 
 account of actual operations in tlie held; the war 
 correspondent depicts hardship and suffering, dis- 
 ease and wounds, the agony of death, as well as 
 the triumphs of arms; even the art of painting- 
 has been pressed into the sanie service, and vivid 
 pictures of great artists have perpetuated the 
 ghastly scenes of the battlefield. 
 
 The conclusion that the world will outgrow 
 war to which we are thus led by a brief survey 
 of the forces which are now promoting peace 
 is supported by some additional considerations 
 which are worthy of notice. These fall under 
 the heads of practicable substitutes foi- war, the 
 teachings of scientific evolution, and the influence 
 of religion. 
 
 Negotiation and arbitration are the two great 
 substitutes for war. Modern methods of quick 
 communication have made lengthy negotiations 
 possible without unreasonable delay; in these the 
 points of difference can be gradually narrowed 
 down and finally settled. Where the intention to 
 seize a pretext for quarrel exists, of course there 
 is never any difficulty in making negotiation fiiil; 
 but if there is a fair intention on both sides to 
 
JULY4,1891. 35 
 
 reach an understanding, modern diplomacy can 
 generally effect it, or can at least arrive at an 
 agreement for arbitration in those cases which 
 can best be settled in that manner. Such nes'o- 
 tiations are now conducted not through ambas- 
 sadors at a distance, to whose discretion much 
 must be trusted, but through direct communica- 
 tions between the responsible heads of the state 
 departments or foreign offices. The long series 
 of successful instances of arbitration, now more 
 than sixty in number during the present century, 
 go far to prove the possibility of dispensing with 
 the arbitrament of the sword. A most conspic- 
 uous example was the Geneva arbitration, con- 
 ducted between Great Britain and the nation 
 which declared her independence on the day we 
 celebrate; and last year was made memorable by 
 the meeting at Washington of an International 
 Conference of all the republics of America, to 
 whose work I shall again refer. 
 
 Experience has shown that international tribu- 
 nals can be constituted that are as competent 
 and as unprejudiced in the settlement of inter- 
 national controversies as are the courts of law 
 in passing upon disputes between individuals. 
 As the private war and trial by battle have be- 
 
36 ORATION. 
 
 C'ome obsolete, and even duelling is now held iiy 
 contempt, so it is not unreasonable to indulge tKe 
 hope that in coming time the arbitrament oj^ wai', 
 crude in its working and uncertain in its^ I'csults, 
 will be replaced by the arbitrament of.^^eace. To- 
 day, in the Supreme Court of tKer' United States, 
 the highest judicial tribunal ever instituted, two 
 States of the Union, possessed of all the attributes 
 of sovereignty save such as they have surrendered 
 to the federal government, appear as parties to 
 a suit and yield obedience to the court's decree. 
 In the future we may well believe that the 
 nations of the earth will establish a yet more 
 exalted tribunal of justice, to which they will be 
 content to snbmit all controversies, and by whose 
 judgment they w^ill cheerfully abide. 
 
 The teachings of scientific evolution lead us 
 to the same conclusion as to the probability of 
 the outgrowing of wai*. The fruitful conceptions 
 a* to the origin, growth, and development of 
 man, of himian society, and of political institutions 
 which science has opened to us during the last 
 half centur}^, confirm the faith that the i)rogress 
 of mankind is from l)arbarism and strife to 
 civilization and brotherhood. The military or- 
 ganization of society was suitable to a stage of 
 
J U L Y 4 , 1 8 9 1 . 37 
 
 development that we are rapidly leaving, and 
 must give place to a purely industrial organiza- 
 tion. Evolution teaches us that the present has 
 grown out of a past from which it differs as 
 widely as possible in every conceivable respect, 
 and that many of the qualities in man which 
 were once regarded as a part of his nature are 
 comparatively recent acquisitions. It also teaches 
 us that from the present we cannot judge of the 
 future, that as man has been modified, physically, 
 mentally, and morally, by his past experience on 
 earth, so he will continue to change in the time 
 to come. The brutality of the savage has given 
 place to the humanity of the civilized man; and 
 peace is the goal toward which the latter is 
 tending in his process of evolution. As the race 
 expresses itself through the unit, and is typified 
 in it, so we may well conclude that as man as 
 an individual has, through the long progress of 
 ages, become more and more a pacific animal, 
 only making war in his associated capacity, so 
 the race will in future acquire the same 
 character. 
 
 Finally, for those who have any religious belief 
 in the spiritual significance of this earth, the 
 abolition of war must appear as something that 
 
38 O K A T I O N . 
 
 will iiievital)]y come. TC this o-lol)^ has any 
 hig-lier purpose than to serve as the arena upon 
 which human gladiators are to fight, then the 
 period of conflict must one day give place to that 
 millennium proclaimed by the pi'ophet, when '' na- 
 tion shall not lift sword against nation, neither 
 shall they learn war any more." In promoting 
 this growth of religious sentiment against war, 
 Christianity can win one of its noblest triumphs. 
 Slowly and gradually the diflferent spheres of 
 man's activity have been brought more and 
 more inider the sway of the principles of the 
 Gospel, far as these still are from exerting 
 their proper influence ; and at last its precepts 
 must be applied to international relations. That 
 higher and more spiritual Christianity which the 
 nineteenth century has developed — higher be- 
 cause returning more closely to the point from 
 which it started in the first century — is by 
 no means the least of the forces Avhich in oui- 
 time strengthen the cause of peace; and surely 
 it is capable of becoming by far the greatest. 
 One of the distinctive features of early Christianity 
 was that it broke down the conventional barriers 
 between Jew and Gentile, between Koman and 
 barbarian, and declared that in the divine mind 
 
JULY 4, 1891. . 39 
 
 there were no distmctions of nationality or raee. 
 It brought to all humanity the good tidings of 
 universal brotherhood. And though for long 
 centuries men who preached the gospel of peace 
 have given their sanction to war, celebrating its 
 victories and blessing its conquerors, yet the 
 modern revival of a truer undei-standing of the 
 teachings of Christ, if it does not result in 
 the acceptance of the doctrine of non-resistance 
 so nobly maintained by one body of his followers, 
 must at least lead to the conviction that war is 
 un-Christian and unnecessary. 
 
 Thus fnv I have spoken of the influences that 
 affect warfare between nations. Civil contests 
 within the limits of a single country demand 
 separate mention. Several of the considerations 
 already alluded to apply to internal conflicts ; but 
 the great security for the maintenance of domestic 
 peace arises from the foct that some governments 
 have already reached a condition of stable equi- 
 librium under democratic institutions, and that 
 many others are fast tending to that point. 
 While popular government is estabhshing itself, 
 Avhile it is so far ahead of the political capacity 
 of the masses of the people that they become 
 the prey of demagogues or autocrats, it may in- 
 
40 O K A T I O N . 
 
 deed seem to occasion more insurrections and 
 civil conflicts than monarchical rule. But this is 
 only a temporary phase which is outgrown. Xo 
 government that the world has yet devised is as 
 stable as a democracy whose people understand 
 their rights of sovereignty. When every citizen 
 is free to cast a secret ballot, and every political 
 change which a majority desire can be secured 
 by the action of their representatives, all occasion 
 for armed revolution has passed away, and the 
 rebel against the government is a traitor to the 
 people. 
 
 And now how shall we connect these thoughts 
 with the anniversary of to-day, and what place 
 shall we assign to our own country in this prog- 
 ress of the world toward peace? In the first 
 place we must remember that, though the Decla- 
 ration of Independence led to a long and bloody 
 war, it was, on our ])art, purely a defensive war. 
 Our forefathers were fighting upon their own tei-- 
 ritory, for the right to govern themselves. 81ow 
 and reluctant in entering upon war, prosecuting it 
 under extreme difficulties, they were glad to wel- 
 come peace as soon as their independence Avas ac- 
 knowledged. The principles which they proclaimed 
 are entirely opposed to wars of aggression. If all 
 
J U L Y 4 , 1 8 9 1 . 41 
 
 men are created equal, if as individuals they stand 
 upon an even footing, then also must they be equal 
 in their associated capacity as nations, and the 
 poorest and the feeblest nation is equal in all its 
 rights to the richest and the strongest; then must 
 the same code of morals apply to governments in 
 their dealings with each other that applies to men; 
 then must the ignoble rule upon which the world 
 has lived so long, that in the aifairs of nations 
 might makes right, give place to the law of jus- 
 tice. In the course of more than a century of 
 national life, our country has been true in the 
 main to its pacific character. The pages of our 
 history are indeed blotted with the record of two 
 wars with foreign countries; it is true, also, that 
 our land has been the scene of the greatest civil 
 conflict that the world has ever known. But now 
 for nearly eighty years our relations with the 
 mother country, though subjected to some strain at 
 times, have remained on a friendly footing, and 
 many embarrassing questions between us have been 
 settled by peaceful methods; and the fact that the 
 slave power once engaged us in war with Mexico 
 has long since been foi'gotten on both sides of the 
 line, in the friendly intercourse of commerce. The 
 war of the rebellion Avas fought to secure the con- 
 
42 ORATION. 
 
 ditions of lasting peace by maintaining tlie integ- 
 rity of tlie federal union. The United States as 
 one nation has a pacific mission to fulfil on earth, 
 and the Avar that established once for all that the 
 federal government is an indissoluble union of in- 
 destructible States, as it was fought by peace- 
 ful citizens, so it had peace for its end and object. 
 '^Che blood of the brave men of the I^orth and of 
 the South, mingling upon the battlefield, has but 
 more firmly cemented the union of two sections in 
 a common country. 
 
 Our nation has rendered a great service to the 
 cause we are considering by setting an example 
 against the practice of maintaining a large stand- 
 ing army. ]S"ever, in modern history at least, has 
 any great nation kept so small a proportion of its 
 citizens under arms as has the United States. To- 
 day, with a population of 63,000,000 and a terri- 
 tory of over 3,r)00,000 scpiare miles, our standing- 
 army still remains Avithin the liuiit of 25,000 men, 
 established many years ago, so tliat avc have only 
 one soldier for every twenty-five hundred |)eo]de. 
 Our army numbers but little more than a national 
 police force; probably the combined policemen of 
 a score of our largest cities would equal numeri- 
 cally all the troops of the Union. And when, at 
 
J U L Y 4 , 1 8 9 1 . ' 43 
 
 the close of the civil war, a million men who had 
 been drawn from civil pursuits and transformed for 
 the time being into soldiers, returned again, easily 
 and quietly, to the ordinary affairs of life, another 
 great lesson was taught to mankind. To-day not 
 alone the geographical separation of our country 
 from others renders it secure, but the paradox 
 must be acknowledged that its very devotion to 
 peaceful industry makes it so strong in the re- 
 sources required for modern warfare that we need 
 not fear the attack of any foreign power. There 
 is not a nation that now groans beneath the bur- 
 den of a great standing army that would not be 
 stronger as a warlike power at the end of ten 
 years if it could follow our example and devote 
 itself to industrial development during that time. 
 But perhaps the most important service Avhich 
 we have rendered to the establishment of peace 
 lies in our development of the federal system of 
 government. Here has been successfully solved 
 the political problem which has been the puzzle of 
 past ages. The great empires of the past involved 
 so much centralization of poAver that they broke 
 down of their own weight, ^ot until our fore- 
 fathers conceived and put into practice the idea 
 of a federal nation of limited powers, made up of 
 
44 O R A T I O N . 
 
 states which chose then' own executive officers 
 and leg'ishitive bodies, and which retained all the 
 powers of sovereignty exce})t such as they con- 
 ferred upon the central government by a formal, 
 written instrument, did any practicable way appear 
 of combining great numbers of men permanently 
 under one |)()litical organization. In our system 
 we have laid down the lines of future })()litical 
 development, and have furnished the model upon 
 which not only three of the republics of America, 
 but the empires of Germany and of Austria-Hun- 
 gary, the Dominion of Canada, and the ucav Com- 
 monwealth of Australia, have already been formed. 
 The world now knows how it is possible, under 
 free institutions, to form a closer political union 
 and a more coherent empire than autocratic rule 
 has ever been able to create, and along this path 
 of political progress lies the road to the perma- 
 nent abolition of war. 
 
 The United States has always conti'ibuted power- 
 fully to hasten the coming disarmament by its en- 
 couragement of arbitration as a means of settling 
 international disputes, and by the support which 
 its people have given to the conception of a Con- 
 gress of Nations as the iinal consummation to be 
 aimed at. The very idea of an international tribu- 
 
J U L Y 4 , 1 8 9 1 . 45 
 
 nal seems to have originated two centuries ago 
 with one of the founders of America, who has 
 given his name to one of our greatest common- 
 wealths. In 1693 Wilham Penn, in an "Essay on 
 the P]*esent and Future Peace of Europe," urged 
 tlie pLnn of a general congress for the settlement 
 of international disputes. The first organized 
 movement in support of this idea began with the 
 formation of the American Peace Society in 1828; 
 its founders declared that they hoped "to in- 
 crease and promote the practice already begun of 
 submitting national differences to amicable discus- 
 sion and arbitration, and finally of setthng all 
 national controversies by an appeal to reason, as 
 becomes rational creatures, and not by physical 
 force, as is worthy only of brute beasts; and this 
 shall be done," they continued, "by a congress of 
 Christian nations, whose decrees shall be enforced 
 by public opinion." As long ago as 1835 the Legis- 
 lature of this Connnonwealth passed resolutions 
 declaring that some mode should be established 
 for the amicable and final adjustment of all inter- 
 national disputes, instead of i-esorting to arms. 
 
 By the treaty of Washington, submitting its just 
 claim against Great Britain to arbitration, our 
 country in a conspicuous instance showed her 
 
46 O R A T I N . 
 
 opposition to unnecessarv war. l>ul perhaps her 
 greatest service to this means of settlement will 
 come Irom an atlempt which has unhappily pi'oved 
 abortive for the present. By the treaty agreed to 
 by the representatives of the American re})nblics, 
 assembled in International Conference at Wash- 
 ington at the invitation of the United States, it is 
 declared that " believing that war is the most cruel, 
 the most fruitless, and the most dangerous expe- 
 dient for the settlement of international difierences, 
 the republics of America hereby adopt arbitration 
 as a principle of American international law foi- 
 the settlement of the differences, disputes, or con- 
 troversies that may arise between two or more of 
 them." Arbitration is by this treaty made oblig- 
 atory in every case except where one of the 
 parties to the controversy believes that the point 
 at issue is of such a nature as to threaten its 
 national independence; and this exception simply 
 corresponds to the right to resort to force in 
 defence of his life which the law everywhere allows 
 to the individual man. A code of rules for putting- 
 arbitration into practice is embodied in the treaty, 
 and it is provided that any other nation may be- 
 come a party to it. The unibrtunate failure of 
 the nations represented to ratify this treaty within 
 
JULY4,1891. , 47 
 
 the time allowed has for the present prevented 
 the accomplishment of its beneficent purposes; 
 yet even its adoption by the Conference marked 
 an epoch in international relations. This body 
 took fm'ther steps of importance in recommending 
 the respective governments to adopt the declara- 
 tion that "the principle of conquest shall not be 
 recognized as admissible under American public 
 law," and in declaring its desire that European 
 nations, by becoming parties to the treaty, should 
 adopt its methods of settling disputes between 
 themselves and the nations of America. 
 
 And now, with this record in the past, what 
 can we still do in the future to promote that union 
 of difterent races which has taken place to so 
 wonderful an extent upon our own territory; how 
 can we help further to perfect that brotherhood 
 of man upon which our political institutions are 
 founded? First of all, we can continue to hold 
 before the eyes of the world the spectacle of a 
 peaceful, federal republic, already exceeding in its 
 population every government in the world except 
 the empires of China, Russia, and Great Britain, 
 and exceeding even the latter if the two hundred 
 and fifty millions of her subjects in India are 
 omitted. We stand to-day among the four great 
 
48 O R A T I N . 
 
 powers of the earth, surpassed by none in tlie ex- 
 tent ol' our resources, equalled by none in the in- 
 telligence of our people. It must be that the 
 United States will have more and more power in 
 moulding' the public opinion of the world, and that 
 our example and practice will have a growing in- 
 fluence upon other nations. Thei-efore every eff"ort 
 to elevate and purify American political or social 
 life, to keep the stream of democracy flowing clear 
 and unobstructed, to make government of the 
 people Avork more successfully, is also an eflbrt to 
 ])]-omote the concord of nations and to hasten the 
 coming peace. 
 
 But tlie time has now arrived when the United 
 States can do more to ])romote this cause than 
 merely securing her own internal development. 
 "With the final settlement of the once menacing 
 questions of slavery and secession, Avith the final 
 establishment of the national government on a 
 firm foundation, we can turn oui" attention to our 
 relations Avith other countries. We can in the 
 future play a continually increasing part in that 
 2*rowinfr closeness of intercourse between nations 
 which has already been referred to as one of 
 the strongest promoters of ]x'ace. In the way 
 of commerce, having already e8tal)lished Avithin 
 
JULY4,1SD1. 49 
 
 our l)oi'ders complete freedom of trade on the 
 largest scale which the world has ever seen, we 
 shall in the futnre seek, as we are already doing, 
 closer trade relations with foreign countries; and 
 every barrier to commerce that is removed, 
 whether by treaty of reciprocity or otherwise, 
 raises another barrier against war. The imagi- 
 nary lines that separate onr country from Canada 
 on the north and Mexico on the south must, in 
 respect to commerce at least, fade away before 
 the true community of interest which unites us 
 with them. With the rapid strides which we are 
 making in the higher forms of civilization, the 
 friendly ties of common intellectual and i)rofes- 
 sional interests must bring us into closer associ- 
 ation with European countries; the establishment 
 this year of the long-delayed right of interna- 
 tional copyright has been one step toward the 
 connection of nations through literature. Even 
 the American inventors who are furnishing im- 
 proved weapons of warfare to foreign countries 
 may be, as we have seen, hastening the extinction 
 of war and cooperating in the true mission of 
 their nation. 
 
 We live in an age of searching analysis, when 
 the oldest and most cherished institutions are 
 
,")() < > K A T I O N . 
 
 (>l)li<4\'cl to siihiiiit to a ci'ilical rxainiiiMlion and 
 dissection. \\'lii'n the people are suineieutly eclu- 
 cated in all eonnti'ies, as they are last heeoming 
 in some, to nntlerstand tlie trni' nature ol' war, 
 they will insist u\nm its abolition. Already, in 
 almost every counti-y of Europe exee])t England, 
 the maintenance of the standing* army rests not 
 u])<)n free will, but u|)on force; the i-anks are not 
 tilled np by the volunteei', l)ut l)y the conscript. 
 The people, il" left to themselves, would engage 
 in the pursuits of civil life; hence the necessity 
 ibr universal couijndsoiy service in order to keep 
 u]) niilitarisui. In h]ugland, with her much smaller 
 army, it is ti'ue that its numbers ai'c, with some 
 dilliculty, maimained by voluntary enlistment; bnt 
 her expei'ience rurnishes a scarcely less striking 
 conuuentary on the dislike ol" the peojjle (or mili- 
 tar}^ service. Keci'uits have to be di-awu mainly 
 ("rom the dregs of the ])opulati()n ; and at the 
 ex])ii'ation of their term of sei'vice mort' than nine 
 men out of ten refuse all inducements to reenlist. 
 AVithin the last ten years there have been over 
 I'orty thousand deserters. The ])lain truth is that, 
 unless driven by necessity, men will not serve in 
 standing armies in time of ])eace; and in time ol" 
 war, nnless some great cause api)eals to their con- 
 
J U L Y 4 , 1 8 !) 1 . 51 
 
 victions, as it did to the soldiers of the revohitioii, 
 modern citizens must have their passions roused 
 and their emotions excited before they will fight. 
 Leave out the music, the banners, and the uni- 
 forms, the pride, pomp, and circumstance which 
 give to war its iictitious gloiy, and it would be 
 a Sony game, at which few Avould care to play. 
 Far be it from me to depreciate the heroic self- 
 sacrifice which men have shown in responding to 
 what they believed to be their country's call to 
 honorable duty; but it cannot be denied that if 
 the peoples of the past had l)een as free and as 
 intelligent as our peo])le are to-day, they would 
 have fought very few of the wars which have 
 stained the pages of history. As liberty and 
 education advance hand in hand, as the citizen 
 assumes control over his own actions and learns 
 to use his own reason, as he comes to discern 
 the real essence and substance of war underneath 
 its external forms and trappings, he will refuse 
 longer to lend him^^elf to the destruction of 
 hnman life. 
 
 Let it not be thought that the considerations that 
 have been brought forward are meant to lead to 
 the conclusion that there will be no more war in 
 the world, and that the great armies of Europe will 
 
52 OlIATIOX. 
 
 1)0 ])eiU'erully reduced and linally dishanded. This 
 may indeed eonu' lo i)ass. liowi-ver unlikely il may 
 seem; yets if the i)rol)al)ilities of tlu' innnediate 
 present only weiv considered, tlu' t()])ic of this ad- 
 dress mig'ht more a])]>ro])i'iately be I'he Coming* 
 AVar. Before the sword can he linally sheathed 
 it may he that the soil ol' l]m'oj)e is to he again 
 drenched in hlood. The darkest hour in the history 
 of war may he yet to come; l)ut it will he a (hu'k- 
 ness that presages dawn. Xo one of the inlhiences 
 that have been touched upon may yet l)e strong 
 enouii'h to stitle the voices that erv to arms; hut in 
 the ag'gTeg'ate, and in the fulness ol'time, their silent 
 effect will l)e irresistible. We cannot iix a date 
 for the cessation of war, and il will hardly come 
 in what remains of the nineteenth century; yet it 
 may come in the twentieth, and some within the 
 sonnd of my voice may Hve to look l)ack upon it 
 as an ontgroAvn barbarism, as to-day Ave h)ok back 
 upon the qnarrels of the feudal barons. u})on trial 
 by battle, and upim duelling. It has been Avell said 
 that many disajipointments and misiuiderstandings 
 arise from the fact that man is in a hurry and the 
 Creator is not. " The kingdom of God cometh 
 not with observation;" the arrival of ])eace draws 
 near slowly and impercei)tibly, but none the less 
 
J U L Y 4 , 1 8 n 1 . 53 
 
 surely. To our l)rief span of mortality the period 
 of strife that yet remains might, if we knew its 
 duration, seem long; but to Him in whose sight a 
 thousand ^^ears are but as yesterday it is as nothing. 
 Compared with the ages through which the hand 
 of man has been against his fellow-man, and nation 
 has met nation in mortal battle, such survival of 
 conflict as may yet remain will be of insignificant 
 dui-ation. " It is really a thought," says Emerson, 
 "that built this portentous war establishment, and 
 a thought shall also melt it aAvay." The anniver- 
 sary that we celebrate to-day can serve no nobler 
 pui'pose than to promote this higher thought. The 
 memory of the founders of the republic cannot be 
 more highly honored than by recognizing the federa- 
 tion of all races as the true outcome of their work. 
 The religion of Christ cannot be better exemplified 
 than in hastening the coming of "peace on earth, 
 good will to men."