ESSAYS ON MANKIND AND POLITICAL ARITHMETia ESSAYS ON MANKIND AND POLITICAL ARITHMETIC BY SIR WILLIAM PETTY NEW YORK THE MERSHON COMPANY PUBLISHERS 9 2H- : INTEODUCTION. William Petty, born on the 26th of May, 1623, was the son of a clothier at Ilomsej in Hampshire. After education at the Eomsey Grammar School, he continued his studies at Caen in Normandy. There he supported himself by a little trade while learning French, and advancing his knowledge of Greek, Latin, Mathematics, and much else that belonged to his idea of a liberal education. His idea was large. He came back to England, and had for a short time a place in the Navy ; but at the age of twenty he went abroad again, and was away three years, studying actively at Utrecht, Leyden, and Amsterdam, and also in Paris. In Paris he assisted Thomas Hobbes in drawing dia- grams for his treatise on optics. At the age of twenty-four Petty took out a patent for the inven- tion of a copying machine. It was described in a folio pamphlet " On Double Writing." That was in 1647, in Civil War time, and although Petty followed Hobbes in his studies, he did not share 6 INTRODUCTION. the philosopher's political opinions, but held with the Parliament. In 1648 he added to his former pamphlet a "Declaration concerning the newly invented Art of Double Writing." Samuel Hartlib, the large-hearted Pole, who in those days spent his worldly means in England for the advancement of agriculture and of education, and other aids to the well-being of a nation, had caused Milton to write his letter on education, as has been shown in the Introduction to the hundred and twenty-first volume of this Library, which con- tains that Letter together with Milton's Ar€opa- gitica. Young Petty 's first published writing was a Letter to Hartlib on Education, entitled "The Advice of W. P. to Mr. Samuel Hartlib for the Advancement of some Particular Parts of Learning." This appeared in 1648, when Potty's age was twenty-five, and its aim was to suggest a wider view of the whole field of education than had been possible in the Middle Ages, of which schools and colleges were then preserving the traditions, as they do still here and there to some extent. This pamphlet has been reprinted in the sixth volume of the ** Harleian Miscellany." William Petty wished the training of the young to be in several respects more practical INTEODUCTION. 7 His own activity of mind caused him to settle at Oxford, where he taught anatomy and chemistry, which he had been studying abroad. He had read with Hobbes the writings of Vesalius, the great founder of modem practical anatomy. In 1649 William Petty graduated at Oxford as Doctor of Medicine, obtained a fellowship at Brasenose, and practised. In 1650 he surprised the public by re» storing the action of the lungs in a woman whcv had been hanged for infanticide, and so restoring, her to life. Dr. Petty now took his place at Oxford among- the energetic men of science who had been inspired} by the teaching of Francis Bacon to seek know- ledge by direct experiment, and to value knowledge- above all things for its power of advancing the- welfare of man. The headquarters of these workers, were at Oxford, and in London at Gresham. College. In 1660 Petty was made Professor of Anatomy at Oxford, and it is a characteristic illustration of his great activity of mind that he was at the same time Professor of Music at Gresham College, Music had then a high place in the Seven Sciences, as that use of regulated numbers which expressed th^ harmonies of the created world. The Seven 8 INTRODTJCTION. Sciences were divided into three of the Trivium, and four of the Quadrivium. The three of the Trivium concerned the use of speech ; they were Grammar^ Rhetoric, and Logic. The four of the Quadrivium concerned number and measure ; they ■were Arithmetic, Geometry, Music; and Astronomy, which led up straight to God. Advance to Music might be represented in the student's mind by his reaching to a sense of the harmonious relation of all his studies, which, so to speak, lived in his mind as a single well-proportioned thought. In 1652 Dr. Petty was sent to Ireland as physician to the army of the Commonwealth. While there his active mind observed that the Survey on which the Government had based its distribution of fortified lands to the "soldiers had been "most inefficiently and absurdly managed." He obtained the commission to make a fresh Survey, which he completed accurately in thirteen months, and by which he obtained in payments from the Government and from other persons in- terested ten thousand pounds. By investing this in the purchase of soldiers' claims, he secured for himself an Irish estate of fifty thousand acres in the county of Kerry, opened upon it nines and quarries, developed trade in timber, and set up a INTRODUCTION. 9 iisliery. John Evelyn said of him " that he had never known such another genius, and that if Evelyn were a prince he would make Petty his second councillor at least." Henry Cromwell as Lord Deputy in Ireland made Petty his secre- tary. Potty's Maps were printed in 1685, two years before his death, as " Hibernise Delineatio quoad hactenus licuit perfectissima ; " a collection of thirty-six maps, with a portrait of Sir William Petty, a work answering to its description »e the most perfect delineation of Ireland that had up to that time been obtained. There is a coloured copy of Petty's maps in the British Museum, and also an uncoloured copy, with the first five maps varying from those in the coloured copy, and giving a General Map of Ireland, followed by Maps of Leinster, Munster, Ulster, and Connaught. There was afterwards published in duodecimo, without date, " A Geographical Description of y^ Kingdom of Ireland, collected from y^ actual Survey made by Sir William Petty, corrected and amended, engraven and published by Era. Lamb." This volume gives as its contents, " one general mapp, four provincial mapps, and thirty -two county mapps ; to which is" added a mapp of Great 10 INTEODTJCTION. Brittaine and Ireland, together with an Index of the whole." At the Restoration William Petty accepted the inevitable change, and continued his service to the country. He was knighted by Charles the Second,, and appointed in 1661 Inspector-General ot Ireland. He entered Parliament, He was one of the first founders of the Royal Society, established at the beginning of the reign of Charles the Second ; and the outcome of these scientific studies along the line marked out by Francis Bacon, which had been actively pursued in Oxford and at Greshara CoUege. In 1663 he applied his ingenuity to the invention of a swift double-bottomed ship, that made one or two passages between England and Ireland, but was then lost in a storm. In 1670 Sir William Petty established on his lands at Kerry the English settlement at the head of the bay of Kenmare. The building of forty- two houses for the English settlers first laid the foundations of the present town of Kenmare. " The population," writes Lord Macaulay, '* amounted to a hundred and eighty. The land round the town was well cultivated. The cattle were numerous. Two small barks were employed in fishing and trading along the coast. The supply of herrings, INTRODTJCTION. 11 pilchards, mackerel, and salmon, was plentiful, and •would have been still more plentiful had not the beach been, in the finest part of the year, covered by multitudes of seals, which preyed on the fish of the bay. Yet the seal was not an unwelcome visitor : his fur was valuable; and his oil supplied light through the long nights of winter. An attempt was made with great success to set up ironworks. It was not yet the practice to employ coal for the purpose of smelting ; and the manufacturers of Kent and Sussex had much difliculty in procuring timber at a reasonable price. The neighbourhood of Kenmare was then richly wooded ; and Petty found it a gainful speculation to send ore thither." He looked also for profit from the variegated marbles of adjacent islands. Distant two days' journey over the mountains from the nearest English, Petty's English settlement of Kenmare withstood all surrounding dangers, and in 1688, a year after its founder's death, defended itself suc- cessfully against a fierce and genei-al attack. Sir William Petty died at London, on the 16th of December, 1687, and was buried in his native town of Pomsey. He had added to his great wealth by marriage, and was the founder of the family in which another Sir William Petty 12 INTRODTTCTION. became Earl of Shelbume and first Marquis of Lansdowne. The son of that first Marquis was Henry third Marquis of Lansdowne, who took a conspicuous part in our political history during the present century. Sir William Petty's survey of the land in Ire- land, called the Down Survey, because its details were set down in maps, remains the legal record of the title on which half the land in Ireland is held. The original maps are preserved in the Public Record Office at Dublin, and many of Petty's MSS. are in the Bodleian Library at Oxford. He published in 1662 and 1685 a "Treatise of Taxes and Contributions, the same being fre- quently to the present state and affairs of Ireland," of which his view started from the general opinion that men should contribute to the public charge according to their interest in the public peace — that is, according to their riches.' " Now, he said, " there are two sorts of riches — one actual, and the other potential. A man is actually and truly rich according to what he eateth, drinketh, weareth, or in any other way really and actually enjoyeth. Others are but poten- tially and imaginatively rich, who though the^ have INTRODUCTJON. 13 power over much, make little use of it, these being rather stewards and exchangers for the other sort than owners for themselves." He then showed how he considered that " every man ought to con- tribute according to what he taketh to himself, and actually enjoyeth." In 1674 Sir William Petty published a paper on "Duplicate Proportion," and in 1679 he pub- lished in Latin a *' Colloquy of David with his Own Soul." In 1682 he published a tract called *' Quantulumcunque, concerning Money ; " and "England's Guide to Industry," in 1686. From 1682 to 1687, the year of his death. Sir William Petty was drawing great attention to the " Essays on Political Arithmetic," which are here reprinted. There was the little " Essay in Political Arithmetic, concerning the People, Housings, Hospitals of London and Paris;" published in 1682, again in French in 1686, and again in English in 1687. There was the little " Essay concerning the Multi- plication of Mankind, together with an Essay on the Growth of London," published in 1682, and again in 1683 and 1686. There was in 1683, " Another Essay in Political Arithmetic concern- ing the growth of the City of London." There were " Farther Considerations on the Dublin Bills 14 INTRODTTCTION. of Mortality," in 1686; and "Five Essays on Political Arithmetic" (in French and English), " Observations upon the Cities of London and Rome," in 1687, the last year of Sir William Petty's life. Other writings of his were published in his lifetime, or have been published since his death. He was in the study of political economy one of the most ingenious and practical thinkers before the days of Adam Smith. But the interest of those " Essays in Political Arithmetic " lies chiefly in the facts presented by so trustworthy an authority. London had become in the time of the Stuarts the most populous city in Europe, if not in the world. This Sir William Petty sought to prove against the doubts of foreign and other critics, and his " Political Arithmetic " was an endeavour to determine the relative strength in population of the chief cities of England, France, ' and Holland. His application of arithmetic in the first of these essays to a census of the popula- tion at the Day of Judgment he himself spoke of slightingly. It is a curious example of a bygone form of theological discussion. But his tables and his reasonings upon them grow in interest as he attempts his numbering of the people in the reign of James II. by collecting facts upon which his INTRODXrCTION. 15 •deductions might be founded. The references to the deaths by Plague in London before the cleansing of the town by the great fire of 1666 are very sug- gestive ; and in one passage there is incidental note of delay in the coming of the Plague tlien due, without reckoning the change made iu con- ditions of health by the rebuilding. Nobody knew, and no one even now can calculate, how many lives the Fire of London saved. There was in Petty's time no direct numbering of the people. The first census in this country was not until more than a hundred years after Sir William Petty's death, although he points out in these essays how easily it could be established, and what useful information it would give. There was a census taken at Rome 566 years before Christ. But the first census in Great Britain was taken in 1801, under provision of an Act passed on the "last day of the year 1800, to secure a numbering of the population every ten years. Ireland was not included in the return ; the first census in Ireland was not until the year 1813. Sir William Petty had to base his calculations partly upon the Bills of Mortality, which had been imperfectly begun under Elizabeth, but fell into disuse, and were revived, as a weekly record 16 INTRODUCTION. of the number of deaths, beginning on the 29tb of October, 1 603 ; notices of diseases first appeared in them in 1629. The weekly bills were published every Thursday, and any householder could have them supplied to him for four shillings a year. These essays will show how inferences as to the number of the living were drawn from the number of the dead. And even now our Political Arith- metic depends too much upon rough calculations made fi'ora the death register. It is seven years since the last census ; we have lost count of the changes in our population to a very great extent, and have to wait three years before our reckoning can be made sure. The interval should be reduced to five years. Another of Sir William Petty's helps in the arithmetic of population was the Chimney Tax, a revival of the old fumage or hearth-money — smoke farthings, as the people called them — once paid, according to Domesday Book, for every chimney in a house. Charles the Second had set up a chimney tax in the year 1662 ; the statistics of the collection were at the service of Sir William Petty. The tax outlived him but two years. It was promptly abolished in the first year of William and Mary. The interest taken at home and abroad in these INTBODUCTION. 17 calculations of Political Arithmetic set other men calculating, and reasoning upon their calculations. The next worker in that direction was Gregory King, Lancaster Herald, whose calculations imme- diately followed those of Sir William Petty. Sir William Petty's essays extended from 1682 until his death in 1687. Gregory King's estimates were made in 1689. They were a study of the number of population and distribution of wealth among us at the time of the English Revolution, and the unpublished results were first printed in a chapter on " The People of England," which formed jjart of a volume published in 1699 as "An Essay upon the Probable Methods of making a People Gainfers in the Balance of Trade, by the Author of the Essay on Ways and Means." The volume was written by a member of Parliament in the days of William and Mary, who desired to apply prin- ciples of political economy to the maintenance of English wealth and liberty. It has been wrongly ascribed to Defoe ; and its suggestion of the plan of a trading Corporation for solution of the whole problem of relief to the poor who cannot work, and relief from the poor who can, might indeed make another chapter in Defoe's "Essay on Projects." The chapter, which gives the Political Arithmetic 18 INTEODTTCTION. of Gregory King, with such comment and sug- gestions as might be expected from a liberal supporter of the Revolution, and with this suggestion of a Corporation, is in itself a complete essay. It follows naturally upon the Political Arithmetic of Sir William Petty in close sequence of time, and in carrying a like method of inquiry forward until it reaches a few more conclusions. I have, therefore, added it to this volume. It seems, at any rate, to show how Sir William Petty's books, of which the very small size grieved the stationer, had a large influence on other minds ; his figures bearing fruit in a new search for facts and careful reasoning on the condition of the country at one of the most critical times in English history. n. M. THE STATIONER TO THE EEADER. The ensuing essay concerning the growth of the city of London was entitled "Another Essay," intimating that some other essay had preceded it, which was not to be found. I having been much importuned for that precedent essay, have found that the same was about the growth, increase, and multiplication of mankind, which subject should in order of nature precede that of the growth of the city of London, but am not able to procure the essay itself, only I have obtained from a gentleman, who sometimes corresponded with Sir W. Petty, an extract of a letter from Sir William to him, which I verily believe containeth the scope thereof; wherefore, I must desire the reader to be content therewith, till more can be had. The extract of a letter concemmg the scope of an essay intended to precede another essay concerning the growth of the City of London, dec. An Essay in Political Arithmeticy concerning the valv>e and increase of People and Colonies. The scope of this essay is concerning people and colonies, and to make way for " Another Essay " concerning the growth of the city of London. I desire in this first essay to give the world some light concerning the numbers of people in England, with Wales, and in Ireland ; as also of the number of houses and families wherein they live, and of acres they occupy. 2. How many live upon their lands, how many upon their personal estates and commerce, and how many upon art, and labour ; how many upon alms, how many upon offices and public employments, and how many as cheats and thieves ; how many are impotents, children, and decrepit old men. 3. How many upon the poll-taxes in England, do pay extraordinary rates, and how many at the level 22 EXTRACT OF A LETTER. 4. How many men and women are prolific, and how many of each are married or unmarried. 6. Wliat the value of people are in England, and what in Ireland at a medium, both as members of the Church or Commonwealth, or as slaves and servants to one another ; with a method how to estimate the same, in any other country or colony. 6. How to compute the value of land in colonies, in comparison to England and Ireland. 7. How 10,000 people in a colony may be planted to the best advantage. 8. A conjecture in what number of years Eng- land and Ireland may be fully peopled, as also all America, and lastly the whole habitable earth. 9. What spot of the earth's globe were fittest for a general and universal emporium, whereby all the people thereof may best enjoy one another's labours and commodities. 10. Whether the speedy peopling of the earth would make (1) For the good of mankind. (2) To fulfil the revealed will of God. (3) To what prince or State the same would be most advantageous. 11. An exhortation to all thinking men to solve the Scriptures and other good histories, concerning EXTEACT OF A LETTER. 23 the number of people in all ages of the world, in the great cities thereof, and elsewhere. 12. An appendix concerning the difierent number of sea-fish and wild-fowl at the end of every thousand years since Noah's Flood. 13. An hypothesis of the use of those spaces (of about 8,000 miles through) within the globe of oar earth, supposing a shell of 150 miles thick. 14. What may be the meaning of glorified bodies, in case the place of the blessed shall be without the convex of the orb of the fixed stars, if that the whole system of the world was made for the use of our earth's men. THE PRINCIPAL POINTS OF THIS DISCOURSE. 1. That London doubles in forty years, and all ^ England in three hundred and sixty years. 2. That there be, A-D. 1682, about 670,000 souls in London, and about 7,400,000 in all Eng- land and Wales, and about 28,000,000 of acres of profitable land. 3. That the periods of doubling the people are found to be, in all degrees, from between ten to twelve hundred years. 4. That the growth of London must stop of itself before the year 1800. 5. A table helping to understand the Scriptures, concerning the number of people mentioned in them. 6. That the world will be fully peopled within the next two thousand years. 7. Twelve ways whereby to try any proposal pretended for the public good. 28 PRINCIPAL POINTS OP THIS DISCOURSE. 8. How the city of London may be made (morally speaking) invincible. 9. A help to uniformity in religion. 10. That it is possible to increase mankind by generation four times more than at present. 11. The plagues of London is the chief impedi- ment and objection against the growth of the city. 12. That an exact account of the people 19 necessary in this matter. or THE GROWTH OF THE CITY or LONDON: And of the Measures^ Periods ^ Causes, and Con- sequences thereof. By the city of London we mean the housing within the walls of the old city, with the liberties thereof, Westminster, the Borough of Southwark, and so much of the built ground in Middlesex and Surrey, whose houses are contiguous unto, or within call of those aforementioned. Or else we mean the housing which stand upon the ninety-seven parishes within the walls of London; upon the sixteen parishes next without them ; the six parishes of "Westminster, and the fourteen out- parishes in Middlesex and Surrey, contiguous to the former, all which, 133 parishes, are compre- hended within the weekly bills of mortality. The growth of this city is measured. (1) By the quantity of ground, or number of acres upon which it stands. (2) By the number of houses, as 28 ESSAYS ON MANKIND. . the same appears by the hearth-books and late maps. (3) By the cubical content of the said housing. (4) By the flooring of the same. (5) By the number of days' work, or charge of building the said houses. (6) By the value of the said houses, according to their yearly rent, and number of years' purchase. (7) By the number of inhabitants ; according to which latter sense only we make our computations in this essay. Till a better uule can be obtained, we conceive that the proportion of the people may be sufficiently measured by the proportion of the burials in such years as were neither remarkable for extraordinary healthfulness or sickliness. That the city hath increased in this latter sense appears from the bills of mortality represented in the two following tables, viz., one whereof is a continuation for eighteen years, ending 1682, of that table which was published in the 117th page of the book of the observations upon the London bills of mortality, printed in the year 1676 The other showeth what number of people died at a medium of two years, indifferently taken, at about twenty years' distance from each other. ESSAYS ON MANKIND. 29 The First of the said Two Tables. 97 16 Out- Buried Besides of the Christ- A.D. Parishes. Parishes. Parishes. in till. Plague. ened. 1665 6,320 12,463 10,925 28,708 68,596 9,967 1666 1,689 3,969 5,082 10,740 1,998 8,997 1667 761 6,405 8,641 15,807 35 10,938 1668 796 6,865 9,603 17,267 14 11,633 1669 1,323 7,500 10.440 19.263 3 12,335 1670 1,890 7,808 10,500 20,198 11,997 1671 1,723 5,938 1 8.063 15,724 6 12,510 1672 2,237 6,788 9,200 18,225 5 12,593 1673 2,307 6,302 8,890 17,499 5 11,895 1674 2,801 7,522 10,875 21,198 3 11,851 1675 2,555 5,986 8,702 17,243 1 11,775 1676 2,756 6,508 9,466 18.730 2 12,399 1677 2,817 6,632 9,616 19,065 2 12,626 1678 3,060 6,705 10,908 20,673 5 12,601 1679 3,074 7,481 11,173 21,728 2 12,288 1680 3,076 7,066 10,911 21,053 12,747 1681 3,669 8,136 12,166 23,971 13,355 1682 2,975 7,009 10,707 20,691 12,653 According to which latter table there died as follows : — The Latter of the said Two Tables. There died in London at the medium between the years — ( 1604 and 1605 6,135. A. 1621 and 1622 8,527. B. 1641 and 1642 11,883. 0. 1661 and 1662 15,148. D. 1681 and 1682 .^ 22,331. E. "Wherein observe, that the number is double to A and 806 over. That D is double to 30 ESSAYS ON MANKIND. B within 1,906. That C and D is double to A and B wi«hin 293. That E is double to C within 1,435. That D and E is double to B and C within 3,341 ; and that and D and E are double to A and B and C within 1,736 ; and that E is above quadruple to A. All which differences (every way considered) do allow the doubling of the people of London in 40 years to be a sufficient estimate thereof in round numbers, and without the trouble of fractions. We also say that 669,930 is near the number of people now in London, because the burials are 22,331, which, multiplied by 30 (one dying yearly out of 30, as appears in the 94th page of the aforementioned observations), maketh the said number; and because there are 84,000 tenanted houses (as we are credibly informed), which, at 8 in each, makes 672,000 souls ; the said two accounts differing inconsiderably from each other. We have thus pretty well found out in what number of years (viz., in about 40) that the city of London hath doubled, and the present number of inhabitants to be about 670,000. We must now also endeavour the same for the whole territory of England and Wales. In order whereunto, we first say that the ass'^ssment of London is about an ESSAYS ON MANKIND. 31 eleventh part of the whole territory, and, therefore, that the people of the whole may well be eleven times that of London, viz., about 7,369,000 souls ; with which account that of the poll-money, hearth- money, and the bishop's late numbering of the communicants, do pretty well agree ; wherefore, although the said number of 7,369,000 be not (as it cannot be) a demonstrated truth, yet it will serve for a good supposition, which is as much as we want at present. As for the time in which the people double, it is vet more hard to be found. For we have ffood ex- perience (in the said page 94 of the afore-mentioned observations) that in the country but 1 of 50 die per annum ; and by other late accounts, that there have been sometimes but 24 births for 23 burials. The which two points, if they were universally and constantly true, there would be colour enough to say that the people doubled but in about 1,200 years. As, for example, suppose there be 600 people, of which let a fiftieth part die per annum, then there shall die 12 per annum; and if the births be as 24 to 23, then the increase of the people shall be somewhat above half a man per annum, and consequently the supposed number of 600 cannot be doubled but in 1,126 years, which, 32 ESSAYS ON MANKIND. to Beckon in round numbers, and for that the afor^ mentioned fractions were not exact, we had rather call 1,200. There are also other good observations, that even in the country one in about 30 or 32 per annum hath died, and that there have been five births for four burials. Now, according to this doctrine, 20 will die per annum out of the above 600, and 25 will be born, so as the increase will be five, which is a hundred and twentieth part of the said 600. So as we have two fair computations, differing from each other as one to ten ; and there are also several other good observations for other measures. I might here insert, that although the births in this last computation be 25 of 600, or a twenty- fourth part of the people, yet that in natural possibility they may be near thrice as many, and near 75. For that by some late observations, the teeming females between 15 and 44 are about 180 of the said 600, and the males of between 18 and 59 are about 180 also, and that every teeming woman can bear a child once in two years ; from all which it is plain that the births may be 90 (and ab;Lting 15 for sickness, young abortion.s, and natural barrenness), there may remain 75 births, ESSAYS ON MANKIND. OO which is an eighth of the people, which by some observations we have found to be but a two-and- thirtieth part, or but a quarter of what is thus shown to be naturally possible. Now, according to this reckoning, if the births may be 75 of 600, and the burials but 15, then the annual increase of the people will be 60 ; and so the said 600 people may double in ten years, which differs yet more from 1,200 above-mentioned. Now, to get out of this difficulty, and to temper those vast dis- agreements, I took the medium of 50 and, 30 dying per annum, and pitched upon 40 ; and I also took the medium between 24 births and 23 burials, and 5 births for 4 burials, viz., allowing about 10 births for 9 burials ; upon which supposition there must die 15 per annum out of the above- mentioned 600, and the births must be 16 and two- thirds, and the increase one and two- thirds, or five-thirds of a man, which number, compared with 1,800 thirds, or 600 men, gives 360 years for the time of doubling (including some nJlowance for wars, plagues, and famines, the effects thereof), though they be terrible at the times and ))lMces where they happen, yet in a period of 360 years is no great matter in the whole nation. For the plagues of England in twenty years have carried 34 ESSAYS ON MANKIND. away scarce an eightieth part of the people of the whole nation ; and the late ten years' civil wars (the like whereof hath not 'been in several ages before) did not take away above a fortieth part of the whole people. According to which account or measure of doubling, if there be now in England and Wales 7,400,000 people, there were about 5,526,000 in the beginning of Queen Elizabeth's reign, A.D. 1560, and about 2,000,000 at the Norman Con- ugh consist with the 360 years especially assigned to England, between this day and the Norman Conquest ; and the said 360 years may well enough serve for a supposition between this time and that of the world's being fully peopled ; nor do we lay any stress upon one or the other in this disquisition concerning the growth of the city of London. We have spoken of the growth of London, with the measures and periods thei-eof ; we come next to the causes and consequences of the same. The causes of its growth from 1642 to 1682m ay be said to have been as follows, viz.: — From 1642 to 1650, that men came out of the country to London, to shelter themselves from the outrages of the Civil Wars during that time ; from 1650 to 1660, the royal party came to London for theii ESSAYS ON MANKIND. 41 more- private and inexpensive living ; from 1660 to 1670, the king's friends and party came to receive his favours after his happy restoration ; from 1670 to 1680, the frequency of plots and parliaments might bring extraordinary numbers to the city ; but what reasons to assign for the like increase from 1604 to 1642 I know not, unless I should pick out some remarkable accident happening in each part of the said period, and make that to be the cause of this increase (as vulgar people make the cause of every man's sickness to be what he did last eat), wherefore, rather than so to say quidlihet de quolihet^ I had rather quit even what I have above said to be the cause of London's increase from 1642 to 1682, and put the whole upon some natural and spontaneous benefits and advantages that men find by living in great more than in small societies, and shall therefore seek for the antecedent causes of this growth in the consequences of the like, considered in greater characters and proportions. Now, whereas in arithmetic, out of two false positions the truth is extracted, so I hope out of two extravagant contrary suppositions to draw forth some solid and consistent conclusion, viz. : — The first of the said two suppositions is, that the 42 ESSAYS ON MANKIND. city of London is seven times bigger than now, and that the inhabitants of it are 4,690,000 people, and that in all the other cities, ports, towns, and villages, there are but 2,710,000 more. The other supposition is, that the city of London is but a seventh part of its present bigness, and that the inhabitants of it are but 96,000, and that the rest of the inhabitants (being 7,304,000) do cohabit thus : 104,000 of them in small cities and towns, and that the rest, being 7,200,000, do in- habit in houses not contiguous to one another, viz., in 1,200,000 houses, having about twenty-four acres of groumd belonging to each of thein, accounting about 28,000,000 of acres to be in the whole terri- tory of England, Wales, and the adjacent islands, which any man that pleases may examine upon a good map. Now, the question is, in which of these two imaginary states would be the most convenient, commodious, and comfortable livings'? But this general question divides itself into the several questions, relating to the following parti- culars, viz. : — L For the defence of the kingdom against foreign powers. ESSAYS ON MANKIND. 43 2. For preventing the intestine commotions of parties and factions. 3. For peace and uniformity in religion. 4. For the administration of justice. 5. For the proportionablj taxing of the people, and easy levying the same. 6. For gain by foreign commerce. 7. For husbandry, manufacture, and for arts of delight and ornament. 8. For lessening the fatigue of carriages and travelling. 9. For preventing beggars and thieves. 10. For the advancement and propagation of useful learning. 11. For increasing the people by ^generation. 12. For preventing the mischiefs of plagues and contagions. And withal, which of the said two states is most practicable and natural, for in these and the like particulars do lie the tests and touch- stones of all proposals that can be made for the public good. First, as to practicable, we say, that although our said extravagant proposals are both in nature possible, yet it is not obvious to every man to conceive how London, now seven times bigger than in the beginning of Queen Elizabeth's reign, 44 ESSAYS ON MANKIND. should be seven times bigger than now it is, and forty-nine times bigger than a.d. 1560. To which I say, 1. That the present city of London stands upon less than 2,500 acres of ground, wherefore a city seven times as large may stand upon 10,500 acres, which is about equivalent to a circle of four miles and a half in diameter, and less than fifteen miles in circumference. 2. That a circle of ground of thirty- five miles semidiameter will bear corn, garden-stufi", fruits, hay, and timber, for the 4,690,000 inhabi- tants of the said city and circle, so as nothing of that kind need be brought from above thirty-five miles distance from the said city ; for the number of acres within the said circle, reckoning two acres sufficient to furnish bread and drink-corn for every head, and two acres will furnish hay for every ne- cessary horse ; and that the trees which may grow in the hedgerows of the fields within the said cir- cle may furnish timber for 600,000 houses. 3. That all live cattle and great animals can bring themselves to the said city ; and that fish can be brought from the Land's End and Berwick as easily as now. 4. Of coals there is no doubt : and for water, 20s. per family (or X600,000 per annum in the whole) will serve this city, especially with the help of the Kew River. But if by practic* ESSArS ON MANKIND. 45 able be understood that the present state may be suddenly changed into either of the two above- mentioned proposals, I think it is not practicable. Wherefore the true question is, unto or towards which of the said two extravagant states it is best to l)end the present state by degrees, viz., Whether it be best to lessen or enlarge the present city 1 In order whereunto, we inquire (as to the first question) which state is most defensible against foreign powers, saying, that if the above-mentioned housing, and a border of ground, of three-quarters of a mile broad, were encompassed with a wall and ditch of twenty miles about (as strong as any in Europe, which would cost but a million, or about a penny in the shilling of the house-rent for one year) what foreign prince could bring an army from beyond seas, able to beat — 1. Our sea-forces, and next with horse harassed at sea, to resist all the fresh horse that England could make, and then conquer above a million of men, well united, disci- plined, and guarded within such a wall, distant everywhere three-quarters of a mile from the housing, to elude the granadoes and great shot of the enemy ] 2. As to intestine parties and factions, I suppose that 4,690,000 people united within this great city could easily govern half the said number scattered 46 ESSAYS ON MANKIND. without it, and that a few men in arms within the said city and wall could also easily govern the rest unarmed, or armed in such a manner as the Sovereign shall think fit. 3. As to uniformity in religion, I conceive, that if St. Martin's parish (may as it doth) consist of about 40,000 souls, that this great city also may as well be made but as one parish, with seven times 130 chapels, in which might not only be an uniformity of common prayer, but in preaching also ; for that a thousand copies of one judiciously and authentically com- posed sermon might be every week read in each of the said chapels without any subsequent repetition of the same, as in the case of homilies. Whereas in England (wherein are near 10,000 parishes, in each of which upon Sundays, holy days, and other extraordinary occasions there should be about 100 sermons per annum, making about a million of sermons per annum in the whole) it were a miracle, if a million of sermons composed by so many men, and of so many minds and methods, should produce uniformity upon the discomposed under- standings of about 8,000,000 of hearers. 4. As to the administration of justice. If in this great city shall dwell the owners of all the lands, and other valuable things in England [ i£ ESSAYS ON MANKIND. 47 within it shall be all the traders, and all the courts, offices, records, juries, and witnesses ; then it follows that justice may be done with speed and ease. 5. As to the equality and easy levying of taxes. It is too certain that London hath at some time paid near half the excise of England, and tliat the people pay thrice as much for the hearths in London as those in the country, in proportion to the people of each, and that the charge of col- lecting these duties have been about a sixth part of the duty itself. Now in this great city the excise alone according to the present laws would not only be double to the whole kingdom, but also more equal. And the duty of hearths of the said city would exceed the present proct^ed of the whole kingdom. And as for the customs we mention .them not at present. 6. Whether more would be gaiued by foreign commerce 1 The gain which England makes by lead, coals, the freight of shipping, tfcc, may be the same, for aught I see, in both cases. But the gain which is made by manufactures will be greater as the manufacture itself is greater and better. For in so vast a city manufactures will beget one another, and each manufacture wi]l be divided into as many parts as possible, whereby iS ESSAYS ON MANKIND. the work of each artisan will be simple and easy. As, for example, in the making of a watch, if one man shall make the wheels, another the spring, another shall engrave the dial-plate, and another shall make the cases, then the watch will be better and cheaper than if the whole work be put upon any one man. And we also see that in towns, and in the streets of a great town, where all the inhabi- tants are almost of one trade, the commodity pe- culiar to those places is made better and cheaper than elsewhere. Moreover, when all sorts of manufactures are made in one place, there every ship that goeth forth can suddenly have its loading of so many several particulars and species as the port whereunto she is bound can take off. Again, when the several manufactures are made in one place, and shipped off in another, the carriage, post- age, and travelling charges, will enhance the price of such manufacture, and lessen the gain upon foreign commerce. And lastly, when the imported goods are spent in the port itself, where they are landed, the carriage of the same into other places will create no further charge upon such com- modity ; all which particulars tend to the greater gain by foreign commerce. 7. As for arcs of delight and ornament. They ESSAYS ON MANKIND. 49 are best promoted by the greatest number of emula- tors. And it is more likely that one ingenious curious man may rather be found out amongst 4,000,000 than 400 persons. But as for husbandry^ viz., tillage and pasturage, I see no reason, but the second state (when each family is charged with the culture of about twenty-four acres) will best promote the same. 8. As for lessening the fatigue of carriage and travelling. The thing speaks for itself, for if all the men of business, and all artisans, do live within five miles of each other, and if those who live without the great city do spend only such commodities as grow where they live, then the charge of carriage and travelling could be little. 9. As to the preventing of beggars and thieves. I do not find how the difierences of the said two states should make much difference in this par- ticular ; for impotents (which are but one in about 600) ought to be maintained by the rest. 2. Those who are unable to work, through the evil education of their parents, ought (for aught I know) to be maintained by their nearest kindred, as a just punishment upon them. 3. And those who can- not find work (though able and willing to perform) 50 ESSAYS ON MANKIND. it), by reason of the unequal application of hands to lands, ought to be provided for by the magis- trate and landlord till that can be done ; for there need be no beggars in countries where there are many acres of unimproved improvable land to every head, as there are in England. As for thieves, they are for the most part begotten from the same cause ; for it is against Nature that any man should venture his life, limb, or liberty, for a wretched livelihood, whereas moderate labour will produce a better. But of this see Sir Thomas More, in the first part of his " Utopia." 10. As to the propagation and improvement of useful learning. The same may be said concerning it as was above said concerning manufactures, and the arts of delight and ornaments ; for in the great vast city there can be no so odd a conceit or design where- unto some assistance may not be found, which in the thin, scattered way of habitation may not be. 11. As for the increase of people by generation. I see no great difference from either of the two states, for the same may be hindered or promoted in either from the same causes. 12. As to the plague. It is to be remembered that one time with ESSAYS ON MANKIND. 51 another a plague happenetli in London once in twenty years, or thereabouts ; for in the last hun- dred years, between the years 1582 and 1682, there have been five great plagues — viz., A. d. 1592, 1603,. 1625, 1636, and 1665. And it is also to be re- membered that the plagues of London do com- monly kill one-fifth part of the inhabitants. Now if the whole people of England do double but in 360 years, then the annual increase of the same is- but 20,000, and in twenty years 400,000. But if in the city of London there should be 2,000,000 of people (as there will be about sixty years hence)^ then the plague (killing one-fifth of them, namely, 400,000 once in twenty years) will destroy as many in one year as the whole nation can re furnish in. twenty ; and consequently the people of the nation shall never increase. But if the people of London shall be above 4,000,000 (as in the first of our two- extravagant suppositions is premised), then the peo- ple of the whole nation shall lessen above 20,000 per annum. So as if people be worth £70 per head (as hath elsewhere been shown), then the said greatness of the city will be a damage to itself and the whole nation of £1,400,000 per annum, and so jwo rata for a greater or lesser number ; wherefore to determine which of the two states is •52 ESSAYS ON MANKISD. best — that is to say, towards which of the said two states authority should bend the present state, a just balance ought to be made between the disad- vantages from the plague, with the advantages accruing from the other particulars above men- tioned, unto which balance a more exact account of the people, and a better rule for the measure of its growth is necessary than what we have here given, or are yet able to lay down. POSTSCEIPT. It was not very pertinent to a discourse concerning the growth of the city of London to thrust in con- siderations of the time when the whole world will be fully peopled ; and how to justify the Scriptures concerning the number of people mentioned in them ; and concerning the number of the quick and the dead that may rise at the last day, &c. Nevertheless, since some friends, liking the said digressions and impertinences (perhaps as sauce to a dry discourse) have desired that the same might be explained and made out, I, therefore, say as followeth : — 1. If the number of. acres in the habitable part of the earth be under 50,000,000,000; if 20,000,000,000 of people are more than the said number of acres will feed (few or no countries being so fully peopled), and for that in six doublings (which will be in 2,000 years) the present 320,000,000 will exceed the said 20,000,000,000. 2. That the number of all those who have died 64 POSTSCRIPT. since the Flood is the sum of all the products made by multiplying the number of the doubling periods mentioned in the first column of the last table, by the number of people respectively affixed to them in the third column of the same table, the said sum being divided by 40 (one dying out of 40 per annum out of the whole mass of man- kind), which quotient is 12,570,000,000 ; where- unto may be added, for those that died before the Flood, enough to make the last-mentioned number 20,000,000,000, as the full number of all that died from the beginning of the world to the year 1682, unto which, if 320,000,000, the number of those who are now alive, be added, the total of the quick and the dead will amount but unto one fifth part of the graves which the surface of Ireland will afford, without ever putting two bodies into any one grave ; for there be in Ireland 28,000 square English miles, each whereof will afford about 4,000,000 of graves, and consequently above 114,000,000,000 of graves, viz., about five times the number of the quick and the dead which should arise at the last day, in case the same had been in the year 1682. 3. Now, if there may be place for five times as many graves in Ireland as are sufficient for all that POSTSCRIPT. 55 ever died, and if the earth of one grave weigh five times as much as the body interred therein, then a turf less than a foot thick pared oflf from a fifth part of the surface of Ireland, will be equivalent in bulk and weight to all the bodies that ever were buried, and may serve as well for that purpose as the two mountains afore-mentioned in the body of this discourse. From all which it is plain how madly they were mistaken who did so petulantly yilify what the Holy Scriptures have delivered. FURTHER OBSERVATION UPON THE DUBLIN BILLS; Or, Accounts of the Houses, Hearths, Baptisms^ and BuritUti in that City. THE STATIONEE TO THE READER, I HAVE not thought fit to make any alteration of the first edition, but have only added a new table, with observation upon it, placing the same in the front of what was before, which, perhaps, might have been as well placed after the like table at the eighth page of the first edition. FURTHER OBSERVATIONS UPON- THB DUBLIN ACCOUNTS OF BAPTISMS AND BURIALS, HOUSES AND HEARTHS. Dublin, 1682. Parishes. Houses. Fireplaces. Baptised Buried. St. James's . . . 272 836) 2,198 122 306 St. Katherine's . . 540 St. Nicholas With- > out and V 1,064 4,082 145 414 St. Patrick's J St Bridget's . . 395 1,903 68 149 St. Audone's , . 276 1,510 56 164 St. Michael's . . 174 884 34 60 St. John's . . . 302 1,636 74 101 St. Nicholas Within") and [ 163 902 26 52 Christ Church Lib. ) St. Warburgh's . 240 1,638 45 105 St. Mohan's . . 938 3,516 124 389 St. Andrew's . . 864 3,638 131 300 St. Kevin's . , . 664 2,120 1 506 1 87 Donnybrook . , , 263 233 6,025 25,369 912 2,263 The table hath been made for the year 1682, wherein is to be noted — 1. That the houses which A.D. 1671 were but 62 ESSAYS ON MANKIND. 3,850 are, a.d. 1682, 6,025; but whether this difference is caused by the real increase of housing, or by fraud and defect in the former accounts, is left to consideration. For the burials of people have increased but from 1,696 to 2,263, according to which proportion the 3,850 houses a.d. 1671 should A.D. 1682 have been but 5,143, where- fore some fault may be suspected as aforesaid, when farming the hearth-money was in agitation. 2. The hearths have increased according to the burials, and one- third of the said increase more, viz., the burials A.D. 1671 were 1,696, the one- third whereof is 563, which put together makes 2,259, which is near the number of burials a.d. 1682. But the hearths A.D. 1671 were 17,500, whereof the one-third is 5,833, making in all but 23,333 ; whereas the whole hearths a.d. 1682 were 25,369, vi^., one-third and better of the said 5,833 more. 3. The housing were a.d. 1671 but 3,850, which if they had increased a.d. 1682 but ac- cording to the burials, they had been but 5,143, or, according to the hearths, had been but 5,488, whereas they appear 6,025, increasing double to the hearths. So as it is likely there hath been some error in the said account of the housing, ESSAYS ON MANKIND. 6H unless the new housing be very small, and have but one chimney apiece, and that one-fourth part of them are untenanted. On the other hand, it is more likely that when 1,696 died per annum there •were near 6,000 ; for 6,000 houses at 8 inhabitants per house, would make the number of the people to be 48,000, and the number of 1,696 that died ac- cording to the rule of one out of 30, would have made the number of inhabitants about 50,000 : for which reason I continue to believe there was <8ome error in the account of 3,850 houses as afore- said, and the rather because there is no ground from experience to think that in eleven years the houses in Dublin have increased from 3,850 to 6,025. Moreover, I rather think that the number of 6,025 is yet short, because that number at 8 heads per house makes the inhabitants to be but 48,200 ; whereas the 2,263 who died in the year 1682, according to the aforementioned rule of one dying out of 30 makes the number of people to be 67,890, the medium betwixt which number and 48,200 ia 58,045, which is the best estimate I can make of that matter, which I hope authority will ere long rectify, by direct and exact inquiries. 4. As to the births, we say that a.d. 1640, 64 ESSAYS ON MANKIND. 1641, and 1642, at London, just before the troubles in religion began, the births were five-sixths of the burials, by reason I suppose of the greaterness of families in London above the country, and the fewer breeders, and not for want of registering. Wherefore, deducting one-sixth of 2,263, which is 377, there remains 1,886 for the probable number of births in Dublin for the year 1682; whereas but 912 are represented to have been christened in that year, though 1,023 were christened a.d. 1671, when there died but 1,696, which decreasing of the christening, and increasing of the burials, shows the increase of non-registering in the legal books, which must be the increase of Roman Catholics at Dublin. Tlie scope of this whole paper therefore is, that the people of Dublin are rather 58,000 than 32,000, and that the dissenters, who do not register their baptisms, have increased from 391 to 974 : but of. dissenters, none have increased but the Roman Catholics, whose numbers have increasd from about two to five in the said years. The exacter knowledge whereof may also be better had from direct inquiries. OBSERVATIONS UPON THE DUBLIN BILLS OF MORTALITY, 1681: AND THE STATE OF THAT CITY. The observations upon the London bills of mor- tality have been a new light to the world, and tho like observation upon those of Dublin may serve as snuffers to make the same candle bum clearer. The London observations flowed from bills regu- larly kept for near one hundred years, but these are squeezed out of six straggling London bills, out of fifteen Dublin bills, and from a note of the families and hearths in each parish of DubKn, which are all digested into the one table or sheet annexed, consisting of three parts, marked A, B, C; being indeed the A, B, C of public economy, and even of that policy which tends to peace and plenty. Observations upon the Table A. 1. The total of the burials in London (for the said six straggling years mentioned in the Table A) is 120,170, whereof the medium or sixth part is 66 ESSAYS ON MANKIND. 20,028, and exceeds the burials of Paris, as may appear by the late bills of that city. 2. The births, for the same time, are 73,683, the medium or sixth part whereof is 12,280, vvhicli is about five-eighth parts of the burials, and shows that London would in time decrease quite away, A^ere it not supplied out of the country, where are about five births for four burials, the proportion of breeders in the country being greater than in the city. 3. The burials in Dublin for the said six years were 9,865, the sixth part or medium whereof is 1,644, which is about the twelfth part of the London burials, and about a fifth part over. So as the people of London do hereby seem to be above twelve times as many as those of Dublin. 4. The births in the same time at Dublin are 6,157, the sixth part or medium whereof is 1,026, which is also about five-eighth parts of the 1^644 burials, which shows tliat the proportion between burials and births are alike at London and Dublin, and that the accounts are kept alike, and conse- quently are likely to be true, there being no confederacy for that purpose ; which, if they be true, we then say — 5. That the births are the best way (till tha ESSAYS ON MANKIND. 67 accounts of the people shall be purposely taken) whereby to j udge of the increase and decrease of people, that of burials being subject to more con- tingencies and variety of causes. 6. If births be as yet the measure of the people, and that the births (as has been shown) are as five to eight, then eight fifths of the births is the number of the burials, where the year was not considerable for extraordinary sickness or salu- brity, and is the rule whereby to measure the same. As for example, the medium of births in Dublin was 1,026, the eight-fifths whereof is 1,641, but the real burials were 1,644 ; so as in the said years they difiered little from the 1,641, which was the standard of health, and consequently the years 1680, 1674, and 1668 were sickly years, more or less, as they exceeded the said number, 1,641 ; and the rest were healthful years, more or less, as they fell short of the same number. But the city was more or less populous, as the births difiered from the number 1,026, viz., populous in the years 1680, 1679, 1678, and 1668, for other causes of this difference in births are very occult and un- certain. 7. What hath been said of Dublin, serves alsa for London. bo ESSAYS ON MANKIND. 8. It hath already been observed by the London bills that there are more males than females. It is to be further noted, that in these six London bills, also, there is not one instance either in the births or burials to the contrary. 9. It hath been formerly observed that in the years wherein most die fewest are born, and vice versd. The same may be further observed in males and females, viz., when fewest males are born then most die : for here the males died as twelve to eleven, which is above the mean proportion of four- teen to thirteen, but were born but as nineteen to eighteen, which is below the same. Observations upon the Table B. \. From the Table B it appears that the medium of the fifteen years' burials (being 24,199) is 1,613, •whereas the medium of the other six years in the Table A was 1,644, and that the medium of the fifteen years' births (being in all 14,765) is 984, whereas the medium of the said other six years was 1,026. That is to say, there were both fewer births and burials in these fifteen years than in the other six years, which is a probable sign that at a medium there were fewer people also. 2. The medium of bii'ths for the fifteen years ESSAYS ON MAliKIND. OV being 984, whereof eight-fifths (being 1,576) is the standard of health for the said fifteen years ; and the triple of the said 1,576 being 4,728, is the standard for each of the ternaries of the fifteen years within the said table. 3. That 2,952, the triple of 984 births, is for each ternary the standard of people's increase and de- crease from the year 1666 to 1680 inclusive, viz., the people increased in the second ternary, and decreased from the same in the third and fourth ternaries, but re-increased in the fifth ternary beyond any other. 4. That the last ternary was withal very health- ful, the burials being but 4,624, viz., below 4,728, the standard. 5. That according to this proportion of increase, the housing of Dublin have probably increased also. Observations upon the Table C. 1. First, from the Table it appears, 1. That the housing of Dublin is such, as that there are not five hearths in each house one with another, but nearer five than four. 2. That in St. Warburgh's parish are near six hearths to a house. In St. John's five. In St. Michael's above five. In St. Nicholas Within above 70 ESSAYS ON MANKIND. six. In Christ Church above seven. In St. James's and St. Katherine's, and in St. Michan's, not four. In St. Kevin's about four. 3. That in St. James's, St. Michan's, St. Bride's, St. Warburgh's, St. Andrew s, St. Michael's, and St. Patrick's, all the christenings were but 550, and the burials 1,055, viz., near double; and that in the rest of the parishes the christenings were five, and the burials seven, viz., as 457 to 634. Now whether the cause of this difference was negligence in accounts, or the greater ness of the families, &c., is worth inquiring. 4. It is hard to say in what order (as to grealr ness) these parishes ought to stand, some having most families, some most hearths, some most births, and others most burials. Some parishes exceeding the rest in two, others in three of the said four particulars, but none in all four. Wherefore this table ranketh them according to the plurality of the said four particulars wherein each excelleth the other. 6. The London observations reckon eight heads in each family, according to which estimation, there are 32,000 souls in the 4,000 families of Dublin, which is but half of what most men imagine, of which but about one sixth part are able to bear arms, besides the royal regiment. ESSAYS ON MANKIND. 71 6. Without the knowledge of the true number of people, as a principle, the whole scope and use of the keeping bills of births and burials is impaired ; wherefore by laborious conjectures and calculations to deduce the number of people from the births and burials, may be ingenious, but very prepos- terous. 7. If the number of families in Dublin be about 4,000, then ten men in one week (at the, charge of about £5 surveying eight families in aix hour) may directly, and without algebra, make aiv account of the whole people, expressing their- several ages, sex, marriages, title, trade, religion,, &c., and those who survey the hearths, or the con- stables or the parish clerks (may, if required) dO/ the same ex officio^ and without other charge, by the command of the chief governor, the diocesan, or the mayor, 8. The bills of London have since their beginning admitted several alterations and improvements,, and £8 or £10 per annum surcharge, would make the bills of Dublin to exceed all others, and become an excellent instrument of Government. To which purpose the forms for weekly, quarterly, and yearly bills are humbly recommended, viz. : — 72 ESSAYS ON MANKIND. i a> _, CO 00 o CO t^ OS 1 Cl "^ eo CO (M CO OS ^ o o t-;^ "V co^ OS 09 CO*" . CO ^ OS «o ■* "* 00 c<> Ift .1 Q o^ o^ OS OS o^ o i- '^ r-T ^ ^ co" ^ J! w <» <£) t^ l-H «o «o OS »o ^ ft 'a (M OS o o CO OS ■* •s (» cc^ ■^ "^ co_ oo co^ L.S ^" ■^ '^ (M '"' "-^ OS '^ ■73 tr^ 00 ^ _ CO eo CO o oi to •* o lO «o CO QC ig t^ c^ o^ 00^ iO cq_ CO oa ;i4 (m" -^ «o^ C c^ W '■' . -^■-^ ^.2 -»J " cc --^ s . ij o •r= ^ iz; £^ O OS 00 "* (N 00 n e CO t^ t- t>- t^ CO o «o 1,003) 967] 933 y 942) 823] 952 y 897) 1,045] 1,061 y 1,096) 4,821 5,353 5,073 4,328 4,624 2,979 3,070 2,842 2,672 3,202 24,199 14,765 24,199 14,765 The medium or 15th ) part whereof is j 1,613 984 1,613 984 74 ESSAYS ON MANKIND. ij -3 o «r^ QOOoooo»MOieO'^'^j<-» ^ o»«0(Mt^ocooJ (N S !>• _ c--'i<«oc^i— 1 o^o i-; 0) (N (m" (N M ^ ^^ ^'' ^" l>^ cc M Cfe o""* i a ^0<©CO«0-*t^«00«OM(M«0 o o o a r3 «00iO00^T*<«0^^O05k0CS lO lO o < «0-^«>-*'.'° to 03 P -*J W g ®og9^^=°5®csc'o2-d ^ ^- ^ ^- ^ ^ ^- ^ ^- ^- ^ ^ ^ '3 o mmm:rimvi:/im'n'Jim'Xi^ »^C^C^T|.0005O^C--»C0 rH r-t pH ESSAYS ON MANKIND. 75 •J8A8J 1 pe^odS 1 •B8tSB8H •xo J H'Bnis PQ P •8tL8BIJ 1 ^ •pio sai?a£ O 91 OAoqy ♦H •pio sj-eei: gi 91 aepun •sx-BUTng H •saiismej * 'f^ S • r • tS w S . - • -^ H i-s "Z' < ft ,£3 P4 -o^ ^ g3" *1 73 §«.«.'= « ?>o«J» « « g f^ « •CJH rt ^-S 3'0 P.'O^r^ 3 o 2 t. Kathe t. Nicho t. Micha t. Audre t. Bridg t. John's t. Warb t. Audae t. Micha t. Kevin t. Nicho t. Patric hrist Ch H a: X X :/: r» :c X X '/: 02 x x ^ i i r-OOI:^000>Or-iC<>C0 1 1 ■- r-l ^ r^ I ESSAYS ON MANKIND, 77 •B8J^'BTJI'BI\[ •sxBuna; •s^^-iia jaq^o'nnjO •si^siduj -OJdL 09 ^Aoqv 91 J^ptig •suos.iad paijj^j^ •saxtJuiaj •sat-Bjil •suosaaci JO jaqtnnjj; 15 'o ffi s -?•> 5q ^ ^^GQ^ ^ ^ ^' ^ ^ J C^C0'<* 695,076 the total of families will be 115,840, and ^ allowing six heads for each family, as was done for Paris, the total of the people at London will be 488,055 696,360 ESSAYS IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC. The medium of the two last London accounts is So, as the people of Paris, according to the above ac- count, is 111 [695,718 [488, 055 Of Rouen, according to "i Monsieur AuzouVs utmost V 80,000 demands J 693,055 h 663 Of Rome, according to his "j own report thereof in a former V 125,000 letter. J So as there are more people at London than at Paris, Rouen, and Rome by Memorandum. — That thtt parishes of Islington, Newington, and Hackney, for which only there is any colour of non- contiguity, is not one-fifty-second part of what is contained in the bills of mortality, and consequently London, without the said three parishes, hath more people than Paris and Rouen put together, by Which number of 114,284 is probably more people than any other city of France contains. M14,284 112 ESSAYS IN POLITICAL AEITHMETIC. THE SECOND ESSAY. As for other comparisons of London with Paris, we farther repeat and enlarge what hath been formerly said upon those matters, as foUoweth, viz. : — 1. That forty per cent, die out of the hospitals at Paris where so many die unnecessarily, and scarce one-twentieth of that proportion out of the hospitals of London, which have been shown to be better than the best of Paris. 2. That at Paris 81,280 kitchens are within less than 24,000 street-doors, which makes less cleanly and convenient way of living than at London. 3. Where the number of christenings are near unto, or exceed the burials, the people are poorer, having few servants and little equipage. 4. The river Thames is more pleasant and navi- gable than the Seine, and its waters better and more wholesome ; and the bridge of London is the most considerable of all Europe. 5. The shipping and foreign trade of London is ESSAYS IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC. 11^ incomparably greater than that at Paris and Rouen. 6. The lawyers' chambers at London have 2,772 chimnies in them, and are worth ^140,000 sterlings or 3,000,000 of French livres, besides the dwellings- of their families elsewhere, 7. The air is more wholesome, for that at London scarce two of sixteen die out of the worst hospitals, but at 'Paris above two of fifteen out of the best. Moreover the burials of Paris are one- fifth part above and below the medium, but at London not above one-twelfth, so as the intem- peries of the air at Paris is far greater than at London. 8. The fuel cheaper, and lies in less room, the coals being a wholesome sulphurous bitu- iQen. 9. All the most necessary sorts of victuals, and of fish, are cheaper, and drinks of all sorts in greater variety and plenty. 10. The churches of London we leave to be judged by thinking that nothing at Paris is so great as St. Paul's was, and is like to be, nor so beautiful as Henry the Seventh's chapel. IL On the other hand, it is probable, that there is more money in Paris than London, if the public 114 ESSAYS IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC. revenue (grossly speaking, quadruple to that of England) be lodged there. 12. Paris hath not been for these last fifty years so much infested with the plague as London ; now that at London the plague (which between the years 1591 and 1666 made five returns, viz., every fifteen years, at a medium, and at each time carried away one-fifth of the people) hath not been known for the 21 years last past, and there is a visible way by God's ordinary blessing to lessen the same by two-thirds when it next appeareth. 13. As to the ground upon which Paris stands in respect of London, we say, that if there be five stories or floors of housing at Paris, for four at London, or in that proportion, then the 82,000 families of Paris stand upon the equivalent of 65,000 London housteds, and if there be 115,000 families at London, and but 82,000 at Paris, then the proportion of the London ground to that of Paris is as 115 to sixty -five, or as twenty- three to thirteen. 14. Moreover Paris is said to be an oval of three English miles long and two and a half broad, the area whereof contains but five and a half square miles ; but London is seven miles long, and one and a quarter broad at a medium, which makes ESSAYS IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC. 115 an area of near nine square miles, which proportion of five and half to nine differs little from that of thirteen to twenty-three. 15. Memorandum, that in Nero's time, as Mon- sieur Chivreau reporteth, there died 300,000 people of the plague in old Rome ; now if there died three of ten then and there, being a hotter country, as there dies two of ten at London, the number of people at that time, was but a million, whereas at London they are now about 700,000. Moreovei the ground within the walls of old Rome was a circle but of three miles diameter, whose area is about seven square miles, and the suburbs scarce as- much more, in all about thirteen square miles._ whereas the built ground at London is about nine square miles as aforesaid ; which two sorts of pro- portions agree with each other, and consequently- old Rome seems but to have been half as big again as the present London, which we offer to anti- quariea 116 ESSAYS IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC. THE THIRD ESSAY. Proofs that the number of people in the 134 parishes of the London bills of mortality, without reference to other cities, is about 696,000, viz. — I know but three ways of finding the same. 1. By the houses, and families, and heads living in each. 2. By the number of burials in healthful times, and by the proportion of those that live, to those that die. 3. By the number of those who die of the plague in pestilential years, in proportion to those that escape. The First Way. To know the number of houses, I used three methods, viz. — 1. The number of houses which were burnt A.D. 1666, which by authentic report was 13,200 ; next what proportion the people who died out of those houses, bore to the whole ; which I find a.d. 1686, to be but one seventh part, but a.d. 1666 to ba ESSAYS IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC. 117 almost one-fifth, from whence I infer the whole housing of London a.d. 1666 to have been 66,000, then finding the burials A.D. 1666 to be to those of 1686 as 3 to 4, I pitch upon 88,000 to be the number of housing A.D. 1686. 2. Those who have been emplof^ed in making the general map of London, set forth in the year 1682^ told me that in that year they had found above 84,000 houses to be in London, wherefore a.d. 1686, or in four years more, there might be one- tenth or 8,400 houses more (London doubling in forty years) so as the whole, a.d. 1686 might be 92,400. 3. I found that a.d. 1685, there were 29,325 hearths in Dublin, and 6,400 houses, and in London 388 thousand hearths, whereby there must have been at that rate 87,000 houses in London. More- over I found that in Bristol there were in the same year 16,752 hearths, and 5,307 houses, and in London 388,000 hearths as aforesaid ; at which rate there must have been 123,000 houses in London^ and at a medium between Dublin and Bristol pro- portions 105,000 houses. Lastly, by certificate from the hearth office, 1 find the houses within the bills of mortality to be 105,315. 118 ESSAYS IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIO. Having thus found the houses, I proceed next to the number of families in them, and first I thought that if there were three or four families or kitchens in every house of Paris, there might be two families in one-tenth of the housing of London ; unto which supposition, the common opinion of several friends ■doth concur with my own conjectures. As to the number of heads in each family, I stick to Grant's observation in page — of his fifth edition, that in tradesmen of London's families there be €ight heads one with another, in families of higher ranks, above ten, and in the poorest near five, ac- cording to which proportions, I had upon another occasion pitched the medium of heads in all the families of England to be six and one-third, but quitting the fraction in this case, I agree with Monsieur Auzout for six. To conclude, the houses of London being 105,315 and the addition of double families 10,531 more, in all 115,846; I multiplied the same by six, which produced 695,076 for the number of the people. The Second Way, I found that the years 1684 and 1685, being next each other, and both healthful, did wonder- fully agree in their burials, viz., 1684 they were ESSAYS IN POLITICAL AEITHMETIC. 119 23,202, and,A.D. 1685 23,222, the medium where- of is 23,212 ; moreover that the christenings 1684 were 14,702, and those a.d. 1685 were 14,730, wherefore I multiplied the medium of burials 23,212 by 30, supposing that one dies out of 30 at London, which made the number of people 696,360 souk. Now to prove that one dies out of 30 at London or thereabouts, I say — 1. That Grant in the — ps^ge of his fifth edition, affirmeth from observation, that 3 died of 88 per annum which is near the same proportion. 2. I found that out of healthful places, and out of adult persons, there dies much fewer, as but one out of 50 among our parliament men, and that the kings of England having reigned 24 years one with another, probably lived above 30 years each. 3. Grant, page — hath shown that but about one of 20 die per annum out of young children under 10 years old, and Monsieur Auzout thinks that but 1 of 40 die at Rome, out of the greater proportion of adult persons there, wherefore we still stick as a medium to the number 30. 4. In nine country parishes lying in several parts of England, I find that but one of 37 hath 120 ESSAYS IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC. 387,000 Rouen . 66,000 ' 2 ' 774,000 London 696,000 6. That London, for aught appears, is the greatest and most considerable city of the world, but manifestly the greatest emporium. When these assertions have passed the exa< •S s ^a .a .s .9 .g GO 1-1 l-H l-t fH 1— 1 ,^ i-t 1^ o B 3 i a s 1 a 0) ^ 3 ^ m 1 S 3 1 1 1 § ^ a > 1 1 1 1 d (O © o ^ ^: ^ 1 g 1 i o o o o o o ® 1 o o o^ q_ o^ o* V o" o" o" cT 04 CO t>. o o us 00 I— 1 »o .g OP THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. 141 as long-lived as those in the country, London would increase in people much faster pro rata than the country. 3. That the reasons why each marriage in London produces fewer children than the country marriages seem to be — (1) From the more frequent fornications and adulteries. (2) Prom a greater luxury and intemperance. (3) From a greater intentness on business. (4) From the unhealthfulness of the coal smoke. (5) From a greater inequality of age between the husbands and wives. (6) From the husbands and wives not living so long as in the country. He further observes, accounting the people to be 5,500,000, that the said five millions and a half (including the transitory people and vagrants) appear by the assessments on marriages, births, and burials, to bear the following proportions in rela- tion to males and females, and other distinctions of the people, viz. : — Vide Scheme B. So that the number of communicants is in all 3,260,000 souls ; and the number of fighting men between sixteen and sixty is 1,308,000. 142 OP THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. o o o O o o o o O C: O^ o^ ^ o" o' O^ o" o PQ io =C' ^^ o -*" KCT o o o o 09 o o o o Z> o o o o^ "i d^cTo" cT 2 O O -J* o « CO Tj< o^ ^ cT ^f o o o ^ o o o o n o o o o o a o o o o CO r-l -O o S . c• (M ^ mortality .... mavkot-towns . . . nlots 'c '^ =2 TlJ.-t^ ^ B " P (S3 t, 0J3 §11 Lend the o the V d q d MMM ^?^ ^ i 1 950,000 240^000 1,200,000 300,000 110,000 o § o 1 950,000 90,000 1,300,000 260,000 100,000 o o 1 o o o o o o o o o o o o <^o o o o^o^ o o'o'o'o'c" O C5 --Ti O O -- cr^ c 00 © lO -H oo O -* CO .15 Ttl t^ r-J^ ^o § !?» ^^^ S^ o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o IB IC CO Ci o_ o_o_o o^ 1 oo"eo''c " '■ o " ..^ w^ 2 CQ °t=! i - = ^ i = o Is If i-H o o o CO ^ o o o ,-H CO CO ->o p ■^ > 1^ '^ :; ;; :; o . . . 1.^ =1 73 ^ S3 ^ -^ o ^•2 73 ^•. ^ " " " o ^ ^ - ^ - " -^ ^ - H H H OF THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. 145 That the bachelors are about 28 per cent, of the whole, whereof those under twenty-five years are 25 J per cent., and those above twenty-five years are 2 J per cent. That the maidens are about 28J per cent, of the whole. Whereof those under 25 years are 26^ per cent. And those above 2d years are 2 per cent. That the males and females in the kingdom in general are aged, one with another, 27 years and a half. That in the kingdom in general there is near as many people living under 20 years of age as there is above 20, whereof half of the males are • under 19, and one half of the females are under 21 years. That the ages of the people, according to their several distinctions, are as follows, viz. : — Vide Scheme 0. Having thus stated the numbers of the T)eople, he gives a scheme of the income and expense of the several families of England, calciilnted for the year 1688. 146 OF THE PEOPLE OV ENGLAND. I ..... . a ^ s ^ r £ ^ ^ o =? ^ a ^ 08 § < 03 1 :: £ t :; £ CO o «o o (M t^ lO Hw "^ ■^ «o s 5 K S r :; s 53 s 1 OQ t» i s o -S 0! S e 3 a 03 1 > '2 3 "^ :;3 -3 1 ¥ o 2»675,520 heads. and tradesmen, handicrafts, men, naval officers, with the families and dependants upon all these altogether, make up the number of — J The common seamen, common '^ soldiers, labouring people, | and out-servants, cottagers, I o oo- aaa -l. j T u.\. • £ M- > 2,82u,000 heads, paupers, and their families, [ ' ' ^'-a^'^- with the vagrants, make up the number of — ) In all 5,500,520 heads. So that here seems a majority of the people, whose chief dependence and subsistence is from the other part, which majority is much greater, in respect of the number of families, because .500,000 families contribute to the support of 850,000 families. In contemplation of which, great care should be taken not to lay new duties upon the home consumption, unless upon the extremest necessities of the State ; for though such impositions cannot be said to fall directly upon the lower rank, whose poverty hinders them from consuming such OF THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. 169 materials (though there are few excises to which the meanest person does not pay sometliing), yet indirectly, and by unavoidable consequences, they are rather more affected by high duties upon our home-consumption than the wealthier degree of, people, and so we shall find the case to be, if we look carefully into all the distinct ranks of men there enumerated. * First, as to the nobility and gentry, they must of necessity retrench their families and expenses, if excessive impositions are laid upon all sorts of materials for consumption, from whence follows, that the degree below them of merchants, shop- keepers, tradesmen, and artisans, must want em- ployment. Secondly, as to the manufactures, high excises in time of peace are utterly destructive to that principal part of England's wealth ; for if malt, coals, salt, leather, and other things, bear a great price, the wages of servants, workmen, and artificers, will consequently rise, for the income must bear some proportion with the exj^ense ; and if such as set the poor to work find wages for labour or manufacture advance upon them, they must rise in the price of their commodity, or they cannot live, all which would signify little, if nothing but 170 OF THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. our own dealings among one another were thereby affected ; but it has a consequence far more per- nicious in relation to our foreign trade, for it is the exportation of our own product that must make England rich ; to be gainers in the balance of trade, we must carry out of our own product what will purchase the things of foreign growth that are needful for our own consumption, with some overplus either in bullion or goods to be sold in other countries, which overplus is the profit a nation makes by trade, and it is more or less according to the natural frugality of the people that export, or as from the low price of labour and manufacture they can afford the commodity cheap, and at a rate not to be undersold in foreign markets. The Dutch, whose labour and manufac- tures are dear by reason of home excises, can not- withstanding sell cheap abroad, because this disad- vantage they labour under is balanced by the parsimonious temper of their people ; but m England, where this frugality is hardly to be in- troduced, if the duties upon our home consumption are so large as to raise considerably the price of labour and manufacture, all our commodities for exportation must by degrees so advance in the prime value, that they cannot be sold at a rate OF THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. l71 which will give them vent in foreign markets, and we must be everywhere undersold by our wiser neighbours. But the consequence of such duties in times of peace will fall most heavily upon our woollen manufactures, of which most have more value from the workmanship than the material ; and if the price of this workmanship be enhanced, it will in a short course of time put a necessity upon those we deal with of setting u]) manufactures of their own, such as they can, or of buying goods of the like kind and use from nations that can afford them cheaper. And in this point we are to consider, that the bulk of our woollen exports does not consist in draperies made of tlie line wool, peculiar to our soil, but is composed of coarse broadcloths, such as Yorkshire cloths, kerseys, which make a great part of our exj)orts, and may be, and are made of a coarser wool, which is to be had in other countries. So that we are not singly to value ourselves upon the material, but also upon the manufacture, which we should make as easy as we can, by not laying over-heavy burdens upon the manufacturer. And our woollen goods being two- thirds of our foreign exports, it ought to be the chief object of the public care, if we expect to be 172 OP THE PEOPLE OP ENGLAND. gainers in the balance of trade, which is what we hunt after in these inquiries. Thirdly, as to the lower rank of all, which we compute at 2,825,000 heads, a majority of the whole people, their principal subsistence is upon the degrees above them, and if those are rendered uneasy these must share in the calamity, but even of this inferior sort no small proportion contribute largely to excises, as labourers and out-servants, which likewise affect the common seamen, who must thereupon raise their wages or they will not have wherewithal to keep their families left at home, and the high wages of seamen is another burden upon our foreign traffic. As to the cottagers, who are about a fifth part of the whole people, some duties reach even them, as those upon malt, leather, and salt, but not much because of their slender con- sumption, but if the gentry, upon whose woods and gleanings they live, and who employ them in day labour, and if the manufacturers, for whom they card and spin, are overburdened with duties, they cannot afford to give them so much for their labour and handiwork, nor to yield them those other reliefs which are their principal subsistence, for want of which these miserable wretches must perish with cold and hunger. OP THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. 173 Tlius we see excises either directly or inrliroctly fall upon the whole body of the people, but we do not take notice of these matters as receding from our former opinion. On the contrary, we still think them the most easy and equal way of taxing a nation, and perhaps it is demonstrable that if we had fallen into this method at the beuinninff of the war of raising the year's expense within the year by excises, England had not been now in- debted so many millions, but what was advisable under such a necessity and danger is not to be pur- sued in times of peace, especially in a country depending so much upon trade and manufactures. Our study now ought to be how those debts may be speedily cleared off, for which these new revenues are the funds, that trade may again move freely as it did heretofore, without such a lieavy clog ; but this point we shall more amply handle when we come to speak of our payments to the public. Mr. King divides the whole body of the people into two principal classes, viz. : — Increasing the wealth of the kingdom... 2,675,520 heads. Decreasing the wealth of the kingdom ... 2,825,000 heads. By which he means that the first class of tho 174. OF THE PEOPLE OP ENGLAND. people from land, arts, and industry maintain themselves, and add every year something to the nation's general stock, and besides this, out of their superfluity, contribute every year so much to the maintenance of others. That of the second class some partly maintain themselves by labour (as the heads of the cottage families), but that the rest, as most of the wives and children of these, sick and impotent people, idle beggars and vagrants, are nourished at the cost of others, and are a yearly burden to the public, consuming annually so much as would be otherwise added to the nation's general stock. The bodies of men are, without doubt, the most valuable treasure of a country, and in their sphere the ordinary people are as serviceable to the commonwealth as the rich if they are employed in honest labour and useful arts, and such being more in number do more contribute to increase the nation's wealth than the higher rank. But a country may be populous and yet poor (as were the ancient Gauls and Scythians), so that numbers, unless they are well employed, make the body politic big but unwieldy, strong but unactive, as to any uses of good government. Theirs is a wrong opinion who think all mouths OF THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. 175 profit a country that consume its produce, and it may be more truly affirmed, that he who does not some way serve the commonwealth, either by being employed or by employing others, is not only a useless, but a hurtful member to it. As it is charity, and what we indeed owe to human kind, to make provision for the aged, the lame, the sick, blind, and impotent, so it is a justice we owe to the commonwealth not to suffer such as have health, and who might maintain themselves, to be drones and live upon the labour of others. The bulk of such as are a burden to the public consists in the cottagers and paupers, beggars in great cities and towns, and vagrants. Upon a survey of the hearth books, made in Michaelmas, 1685, it was found that of the 1,300,000 houses in the whole kingdom, those of one chimney amounted to 554,631, but some of these having land about them, in all our calcula- tions, we have computed the cottagers but at 500,000 families ; but of these, a large number may get their own livelihood, and are no charge to the parish, for which reason Mr. King very judiciously computes his cottagers and paupers, decreasing the wealth of the nation but at 400,000 176 OF THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. families, in which account he includes the poor- houses in cities, towns, and villages, besides which he reckons 30,000 vagrants, and all these together to make up 1,330,000 heads. This is a very great proportion of the people to be a burden upon the other part, and is a weight upon the land interest, of which the landed gentle- men must certainly be very sensible. If this vast body of men, instead of being ex- pensive, could be rendered beneficial to the com- monwealth, it were a work, no doubt, highly to be jDromoted by all who love their country. It seems evident, to such as have considered these matters, and who have observed how they are ordered in nations under a good polity, that the number of such who through age or impotence stand in real need of relief, is but small and might be maintained for very little, and that the poor rates are swelled to the extravagant degree we now see them at by two sorts of people, one of which, by reason of our slack administration, is suffered to remain in sloth, and the other, through a defect in our constitution, continue in wretched poverty for want of employment, though willing enough to undertake it. All this seems capuble of a remedy, the laws OP THE PEOPLE OP ENGLAND. 177 may be armed against voluntary idleness, so as to prevent it, and a way may probably be found out to set those to work who are desirous to support themselves by their own labour ; and if this could be brought about, it would not only put a stop to the course of that vice which is the consequence of aii idle life, but it would greatly tend to enrich the commonwealth, for if the industry of not half the people maintain in some degree the other part, and,, besides, in times of peace did add every year near two million and a half to the general stock of England, to what pitch of wealth and greatness might we not be brought, if one limb were not suffered to draw away the nourishment of the other, and if all the members of the body politic were rendered useful to it ? Nature, in her contrivances, has made every part of a living creature either for ornament or use; the same should be in a politic institution rightly governed. It may be laid down for an undeniable truth, that where all work nobody will want, and to promote this would be a greater charity and more meritorious than to build hospitals, which very often are but so many monuments of ill-gotten- riches attended with late repentance. 178 OF THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND.. To n?ake as many as possible of these 1,330,000 persons (whereof not above 330,000 are children too young to work) who now live chiefly upon others got themselves a large share of their main- tenance would be the opening a new vein of treasure of some millions sterling per annum ; it would be a present ease to every particular man of substance, and a lasting benefit to the whole body of the kingdom, for it would not only nourish but increase the numbers of the people, of which many thousands perish every year by those diseases contracted under a slothful poverty. Our laws relating to the poor are very numerous, and this matter has employed the care of every age for a lono^ time, thouofh but with little success, partly through the ill execution, and partly through some defect in the very laws. The corruptions of mankind are grown so great that, now-a-days, laws are not much observed which do not in a manner execute themselves ; ot this nature are those laws which relate to bringing in the Prince's revenue, which never fail to be put in execution, because the people must pay, and the Prince will be paid ; but where only one part of the constitution, the people, are immediately con- cerned, as in laws relating to the poor, the high* OF THE PEOPLE OP ENGLAND. 179 ways, assizes, and other civil economy, and good order in the state, those are but slenderly regarded. The public good being therefore, very often, not a motive strong enough to engage the magistrate to perform his duty, lawgivers have many times fortified their laws with penalties, wherein private persons may have a profit, thereby to stir up tho people to put the laws in execution. In countries depraved nothing proceeds well wherein particular men do not one way or other find their account; and rather than a public o-ood should not go on at all, without doubt, it is better to give private men some interest to set it forward. For which reason it may be worth the considera- tion of such as study the prosperity and welfare of England, whether this great engine of maintaining the poor, and finding them work and employment, may not be put in motion by giving some body of undertakers a reasonable gain to put the machine upon its wheels. In order to which, we shall here insert a pro- posal delivered to the House of Commons last session of Parliament, for the better maintaininff- the impotent, and employing and setting to work the otiier poor of this kingdom. In matters of this nature, it is always good to ISO OF THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. iiure some model or plan laid down, which thinking men may contemplate, alter, and correct, as they see occasion; and the writer of these papers does rather choose to offer this scheme, because he is satisfied it was composed by a gentleman of great abilities, and who has made both the poor rates, and their number, more his study than any other person in the nation. The proposal is as follows : — A Scheme for Setting the Poor to Work. First, that such persons as shall subscribe and pay the sum of X300,000 as a stock for and towards the better maintaining the impotent poor, and for buying commodities and materials to employ and set at work the other poor, be incorporated and made one body politic, &c. By the name of the Governor and Company for Maintaining and Em- ploying the Poor of this Kingdom. By all former propositions, it was intended that the parishes should advance several years' rates to raise a stock, but by this proposal the experiment is to be made by private persons at their risk ; and £300,000 may be judged a very good stock, which, added to the poor rates for a certain number of years, will be a very good fund for buying com- modities and materials for a million of money at OF THE PEOPLE OP ENGLAND. 181 any time. This subscription ought to be free for everybody, and if the sum were subscribed in the several counties of England and Wales, in propor- tion to their poor rates, or the monthly assessment, it would be most convenient ; and provision may be made that no person shall transfer his interest but to one of the same county, which will keep the interest there during the term ; and as to its being one Corporation, it is presumed this will be most beneficial to the public. For first, all disputes on removes, which are very chargeable and burthen- some, will be at an eixl — this proposal intending, that wherever the poor are, they shall be maintained or employed. Secondly, it will prevent one county which shall be diligent, imposing on ilieir neigh- bours who may be negligent, or getting away their manufactures from tliera. Thirdly, in case of lire, plague, or loss of manufacture, the stock of one county may not be sufficient to support the places where such calamities may happen ; and it is necessary the whole body should support every particular member, so that hereby there will be a general care to administer to every place according to their necessities. Secondly, that the said Corporation be establislied for the term of one-and-twenty years. 182 OF THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. The Corporation ought to be established for one- and-twenty years, or otherwise it cannot have the benefit the law gives in case of infants, which is their service for their education ; besides, it will be some years before a matter of this nature can be brought into practice. Thirdly, that the said sum of .£300,000 be paid in, and laid out for the purposes aforesaid, to remain as a stock for and during the said term of one-and- twenty years. The subscription ought to be taken at the passing of the Act, but the Corporation to be left at liberty, to begin either the Michaelmas or the Lady Day after, as they shall think fit. And per cent, to be paid at the subscribing to persons appointed for that purpose, and the remainder before they beo-in to act ; but so as £300,000 shall be always in stock during the term, notwithstanding any dividends or other disposition : and an account thereof to be exhibited twice in every year upon oath, before the Lord Chancellor for the time being. Fourthly, that the said corporation do by them- selves, or agents in every parish of England, from and after the day of during the said term of one-and- twenty years, provide for the OF THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. 183 real impotent poor good and sufficient maintenance and reception, as good or better than hath at any time within the space of years before the said day of been provided or allowed to such impotent poor, and so shall continue to provide for such impotent poor, and what other growing impotent poor shall happen in the said parish during the said term. By impotent poor is to be understood all infants and old and decrepid persons not able to work ; also persons who by sickness or any accident are for the time unable to labour for themselves or families ; and all persons (not being tit for labour) who were usually relieved by the money raised for the use of the poor ; they shall have maintenance, &c., as good or better, as within years they used to have. This does not directly determine what that shall be, nor is it possible, by reason a shilling in one county is as much as two in another ; but it will be the interest of the Corporation that such poor be well provided for, by reason the contrary v/ill occasion all the complaints or clamour that jnijljably can be made against the Corporation. Fifthly, that the CoT'poration do provide (as well for all such poor which on the said day of 184 OP THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. shall be on the poor books, as for what other growing poor shall happen in the said term "who are or shall be able to labour or do any work) sufficient labour and work proper for such persons to be employed in. And that provision shall be made for such labouring persons according to their labour, so as such provision doth not exceed three- fourth parts as much as any other person would have paid for such labour. And in case they are not •employed and set to work, then such persons shall, until materials or labour be provided for them, be maintained as impotent poor ; but so as such persons wlio shall hereafter enter themselves on the poor's book, being able to labour, shall not quit the service of the corporation, without leave, for the space of six months. The Corporation are to provide materials and labour for all that can work, and to make provision for them not exceeding three-fourth parts as much as any other person would give for such labour. For example, if another person would give one of these a shilling, the Corporation ouglit to give but ninepence. And the reason is plain, first, because the Corporation will be obliged to maintain them and their families in all exigences, which others aro not obliged to do, and consequently they ought not OF THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. 18.5 to allow SO much as others. Seoonclly, in case any peibons able to labour, shall come to the Corpora- tion, when their agents are not prepared with materials to employ them, by this proposal they are to allow them full provision as impotent poor, until they find them work, which is entirely in favour of the poor. Thirdly, it is neither reason able nor possible for the Corporation to provide materials upon every occasion, for such persons as shall be entered with them, unless they can be secure of such persons to work up those materials ; besides, without this provision, all the labouring people of England will play fast and loose between their employers and the Corporation, for as they are disobliged by one, they will run to the other, and so neither shall be sure of them. Sixthly, that no impotent poor shall he removed out of the parish where they dwell, but upon notice in writing given to the churchwardens or overseers of the said parish, to what place of provision he or she is removed. It is judged the best method to provide for the impotent poor in houses prepared for that purpose, where proper provision may be made for several, with all necessaries of care and maintenance. Sa that in some places one house will serve tht- 186 OP THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. impotent poor of several parishes, in which case the parish ought to know where to resort, to see if good provision be made for them. Seventhly, that in case provision be not made for the poor of each parish, in manner as aforesaid (upon due notice given to the agents of the Corpor- ation) the said parish may order their poor to be jnainlained, and deduct the sum by them expended f)ut of the next payments to be made to the said corporation by the said parish. In case any accident happens in a parish, either by sickness, fall, casualty of fire, or other ways ; and that the agent of the Corporation is not present to provide for them, or having notice doth not im- mediately do it, the parish may do it, and deduct so much out of the next payment; but there must be provision made for the notice, and in what time the Corporation shall provide for them. Eighthly, that the said Corporation shall have and receive for the said one-and-twenty years, that is to say, from every parish yearly, so much as such parish paid in any one year, to be computed by a medium of seven years ; namely, from the 2oth of March, 1690, to the 25th of March 1697, and to be paid half-yearly ; and besides, shall receive the benefit of the revenues of all donations given to OF THE PEOPLE OP ENGLAND. 187 any parish, or whicli shall be given during the said term, and all forfeitures which the law gives to the use of the poor ; and to all other sums which were usually collected by the parish, for the maintenance of the poor. Whatever was raised for or applied to the use of the poor, ought to be paid over to the Corporation ; and where there are any donations for maintaining the poor, it will answer the design of the donor, by reason there will be better provision for the main- tenance of the poor than ever ; and if that main- tenance be so good, as to induce further charities, no doubt the Corporation ought to be entitled to them. But there are two objections to this article ; first that to make a medium by a time of war is unreasonable. Secondly, to continue the whole tax for one-and-twenty years, does not seem to give any benefit to the kingdom in that time. To the first, it is true, we have a peace, but trade is lower now than at any time during the war, and the charge of the poor greater ; and when trade will mend is very uncertain. To the second, it is very plain, that although the charge may be the same to a parish in the total, yet it will be less to particular persons, because those who before received alms, will now be enabled to be contributors ; but besideS| 183 OF THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. the turning so many hundred thousand pounds a year (which in a manner have hitherto been applied only to support idleness) into industry ; and the employing so many other idle vagrants and sturdy beggars, with the product of their labour, will al- together be a present benefit to the lands of England, as well in the rents as in the value ; and further the accidental charities in the streets and at doors, is, by a very modest computation, over and above the poor rates, at least £300,000 per annum, which will be entirely saved by this pro- posal, and the persons set at work ; which is a further consideration for its being well received, since the Corporation are not allowed anything for this service. The greater the encouragement is, the better the work will be performed ; and it will become the wisdom of the parliament in what they do, to make it effectual ; for should such an undertaking as this prove ineffectual, instead of remedying, it will in- crease the mischief. Ninthly, that all the laws made for the provision of the poor, and for punishing idle vagrant persons, be repealed, and one law made to continue such parts as are found useful, and to add such othet OF THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. 185> restrictions, penalties, and provisions, asmayeff-ct t. ally attain the end of tins great work. The laws hereunto relating are numerous, but the judgment and opinions given upon them are so various and contradictory, and differ so in sundry places, as to be inconsistent with any one general scheme of management. Tenthly, that proper persons be appointed in every county to determine all matters and differ- ences which may arise between the corporation and the respective parishes. To prevent any ill usage, neglect or cruelty, it will be necessary to make provision that the poor may tender their complaints to officers of the parish ; and that those officers having examined the same, and not finding redress, may apply to persons to be appointed in each county and each city for that purpose, who may be called super- visors of the poor, and may have allowance made them for their trouble ; and their business may be to examine the truth of such complaints j and in case either the parish or corporation judge them- selves aggrieved by the determination of the said supervisors, provision may be made that an appeal lie to the quarter sessions. Eleventhly, that the corporation be obliged to 190 OF THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. provide for all public beggars, and to put the \a.w9 into execution against public beggars and idle vagrant persons. Such of the public beggars as can work must be employed, the rest to be maintained as impotent poor, but the laws to be severely put in execution against those who shall ask any public alms. This proposal, which in most parts of it seems to be very maturely weighed, may be a foundation for those to build upon who have a public spirit large enough to embrace such a noble undertaking. But the common obstruction to anything of this nature is a malignant temper in some who will not let a public work go on if private persons are to be gainers by it. When they are to get them- selves, they abandon all sense of virtue ; but are clothed in her whitest- robe when they smell profit coming to another, masking themselves with a false zeal to the commonwealth, where their own turn is not to be served. It were better, indeed, that men would serve their country for the pi-aise and honour that follow good actions, but this is not to be expected in a nation at least leaning towards corruption, and in such an age it is as much as we can hope for if the prospect of some honest gain inviie-' people to do the public faithfu] OF THE PEOPLE OP ENGLAND. 19} service. For which reason, in any undertaking where it can be made apparent that a great benelit will accrue to the commonwealth in general, we ought not to have an evil eye upon what fair advantages particular men may thereby expect to reap, still taking care to keep their appetite of getting within moderate bounds, laying all just and reasonable restraints upon it, and making due provision that they may not wrong or oppress their fellow subjects. It is not to be denied, but that if fewer hands were suffered to remain idle, and if tlie poor had full employment, it would greatly tend to the common welfare, and contribute much towards adding every year to the general stock of England. Among the methods that we have here proposed of employing the poor, and making the whole body of the people useful to the public, we think it our duty to mind those who consider the common welfare of looking with a compassionate eye into the prisons of this kingdom, where manj'- thousands consume their time in vice and idleness, wasting the remainder of their fortunes, or lavishing the substance of their creditors, eating bread and doing no work, which is contrary to good order, and pei> nicious to the commonwealth. 192 OP THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. We cannot therefore but recommend the thoughts of acme good bill that may effectually put an end to this mischief so scandalous in a trading ^^^^ ^^■^^m^^