- ■- - A PRESENTATION OF CAUSES n:\ in so TO i i \ 'i'ii i; position of tii i: FUTURE GREAT CITY OF THE WOULD in tiii: CENTRAL PLAIN OF NORTH AMERICA. SHOWING THAT The Centre of the World's Commerce, NOW REPRESENTED i;Y TH1C CTTV OP" LOISTDOKT, IS MOVING WESTWARD TO THE CITY OF TVIiiAV YORK, AND THENCE, WITHIN ONE HUNDRED VI. Mis, TO THE REST POSITION ON THE GREAT LAKES. liy J. W. SCOTT. TOLEDO: BLADE 8TI vm BOOB ami JOB PBINT, 1868. Entered according to act of Congress, m W. Scott, in tie Clerk's offlc ofthi Cities are organisms thai grow up as naturally a? men. They develope where human faculties are most effective, and because these faculties can be more effective there than elsewhere. Like men, too, thej are mutually helpful. London could nol have grown to become whal she is withoul the aid of Birmingham, Manchester, Liver] Land the other greai cities in her neighborhood, and in other parts of the world. Proximity to these has given her, and sustained in her, more than one of the millions of her people. < >n the other hand, London lias not failed to return to her sister cities the lull measure of benefits receivi d from them. As all the prmcipal cities of the world contribute to the supporl of London, so do thej all take tribute of her. Eonesl commerce gives forth equal benefits, and no commerce thai is no! hones! ran be permanently successful. The earliest greai cities were built bj a race of men inferior to our own, to-wit: the Mongolian Chinese. Their means for commercial operations — navigable riversand canals — though imperfect, enabled them to centralize commerce so as to build up cities containing a million or more "1' people ; but, with insuflicienl unity of government and interesl to draw commerce to one greai centre. Subsequently, Caucasian and mixed faces centralized commerce in their own limited dominion: — on the Tigris, Euphrates. Nile, Ganges, and other navigable rivers. These wen' commercial centres, chiefly for the nations which made them their capitals ; for, at that period, very little commerce between nations existed. The early cities of the Btediteranean sea were the firsl thai were made centres of an j considerable international commerce: and this was chiefly confined to (he waters of that sea. The vessels in which ii was carried on would make a poor show com pa red with the shipping now on our great lakes. In short, trade, in early times, "as < lined to verj limited regions. It was local and isolated. Gradually, il has grown to be more general, and its leading centres have become more populous and powerful. I Ian dels. \ illages, towns and cities have grown and competed for supremacy until, now, a centre for the commerce of the whole world challenges discussion. Where will, probably, grow up the greai cities id' the future? I say. probably, for new elements may come into the calculation that are now unknown or unappreciated. 1 shall assume that a city is an organism, springing from natural laws as inevitably as any other organism, and governed, invariably, in its origin and growth, l>\ these laws. 1 shall also assume, and endeavor to prove, thai these cities are to be on the North American Continent) and not distant from the centre of the industrial power id' this continent, when well settled and its resources well developed. The e.rou i h of a city is analogous to the growl h of a man. The firsl and greatesi necessit \ ol'a human 1 icing is food. The next is clothing; after which comes shelter. Food, clothing and houses. These are prime and essential requisites. There can be no civilized life without all of thriu. Hut these are products of labor and skill. Where can labor and skill be used tn greatest advantage, in the production of these necessities ? The solution of this question will go far to fix a natural location for a city. Hut there are other necessities of high civilization, without which there can be no great city. There must be easy communication between it and other industrious and populous communities; good navigable channels, and. in our day. good road-ways over the land. TKere needs be cheap and quick means of transportation in order to effect thai facile interchange of commodities which sustains high civilization. In discussing the question of the locatii I' the future greatest city, it will be assumed that our continent will I"- settled by an industrious population and most densely inhabited where food and other primary ne 'ds are most certainly attainable. It is a well-established fact that the centre of industrial power, as well as the centre oi population, of North America, is moving steadily and inevitably westward of its former and present location ; and it is not doubted that it will continue t i move in that direction until it shall have approached the centre of the natural productive power of the continent. The invention of the mariner's compass united, in a measure, the great continents, and brought all lands within the views of commerce. The earth was sailed around, and all its prominent characteristics became known. Slowly, at first, but faster andfaster, the productions of different climates and different conditions of people were brought to shipping ports and exchanged. Now, the new and wonderful instrumentalities, steam and electric telegraphsi arc making all peoples into one commercial family, and concentrating their commerce in ureal centres; as London, Paris and New York. It is a question of great interest whether one of these is to be the acknowledged heart and brain of the world's commerce; giving to the word commerce its widest signification. As yet, commerce has not become organized as a complete unit, and. therefore, has not a universally acknowledged central city; though its developement, within the last fifty years has rapidlj I ended to centralization in the Island of Britain and the city of London. Paris is, and has long been, the acknowledged social centre of the world, due to itssupremacy in the elegant arts and the amenities of high civilization. It has not been without eontroling natural laws that London has be< e the principal centre of the world's commerce. II' the various means of transportation are c msidered, it will be found that it is more c mvenient for the meeting of commercial products, exportable from all parts of the commercial world, than any cither city : that is in say. it is more nearly central t" the present commercial power id' the world than am other great city. It is more central to the home commerce of the United Kingdom than any other commodious port, This is a great advantage, fur the home trade of the British nation isvery great; inaii\ times greater than its foreign commerce. It is central between the commerce of the Eastern and Western Continents, considering how great!) the magnitude id' that of the Eastern exceeds that of the Western. Will it remain central? There was a time when the island of Britain was on the extreme western verge of civilization and commerce, and, as said by Virgil, divided from the whole world besides. Since that lime, the tide nf men and commerce has moved steadily westward. That tide, in constantly increasing volume and rapidity nf flow, continues t" nunc westward. This continuing, the certainty of its reaching a better, centre of commercial power than London, seems inevitable. Hut, tn (his end. it must cress the Atlantic. W'hal are the indications thiit it will, on this side, find its destined place? [fit is admitted that London must he superceded, what intelligent man will hesitate to name New York as the successful rival? Fort) years ago in 1828 — London, with its numerous suburbs, contained about a million and a half of people. It has di ml iled its population since, making ii s period of duplication l"ii\ p.ar-. New York, with its dependent population included, by which 1 mean those supported bj the business of New York, and having their residences in suburban places, has now, in 1868, a population greater than London bad, in 1838. New York appears t<> have a law of growth which doubles its population in from fourteen to sixteen years. If we allow London a future growth of two per cent, a year, and New York of five per ecu!., on a population of three million for the former, and half that number for the latter, the result will be in L882, fifteen years from this bime, thai London will contain, in round numbers, four millions. New York will then contain over three millions. Allowing the same rate of increase up to L893, the two cities will be nearly equal, New York numbering 4,849,387, and London 4,823,514. The United States, at thai time, will contain over sixty miUienaof pe iplc ; and the British Colonies, bordering the States on the north, will contain some eight millions. Together, sixty-eighi millions. Long before thai year. Eastern Asia, embracing the viva! Empires of China and Japan, with all the coasts of the North Pacific Ocean, will have become practically nearer to New York than to London, by means of railways across the American ( 'ontinent. The centre of commercial power moving westward will, somewhere, in lime, be arrested. Ii will find a resting-place in North America; fori! is not to be supposed it will, in its westward course, cross the 1'aeitie to the inferior races of Eastern Asia. Nor is it likely to reach ami make a lodgemeni at any porf on our Pacific coast. The vast, arid and mountainous regions of the western hall' of the continent, and the nnequaled extent of fertile lands on the eastern half, fix its location, inevitably, on the latter. Will New York, then, be the permanent emporium of North America and the world; or will its ultimate re3ting-place be westward of her position ? The n riter believes, after giving New York the leadership over London, the final supremacy among the world's cities, will settle on a place by the shores >)\' the greaf lakes, central to thegreatesf industrial and commercial capabilities, and thegreatesi exteni of fertile lands in the Ndrth Temperate Zone of the Globe. Chicago and Toledo have already demonstrated themselves to he the strongesi commercial points on the Lakes ; ami. as their position is plainly the besi for the concentration of land and water transport, a change to other places is no! to he looked for. [Hoe Appendix, A]. But, before entering on the consideration of the claims of an interior city to become, at some future day. the successful rival of New York, as the chief centre of the world's commerce, i( will hi' in order to inquire on what grouuds, besides the more rapid growth of New York intliepast.it is claimed thai ii will become greater than London. The main, the 'controlling reason is that it i- getting an increasing!} larger home trade than London, because our home population, now greater, is increasing marly three times as fast. It has been demonstrated, on our railway lines, that the way-traffic between city and city, and stati mil station, in all the settled portions of lines of any considerable extent. greatly preponderate-, in amount and profit, over the through traffic, even where the termini are greal gathering points of commerce. No statistics at band enable me to state w hat are the proporl ions of the home trade of Now York, compared with its w hole commerce, or what proportion of its population is supported by the home trade, and what portion by foreign commerce. If we estimate the proportion of the former to the latter as fifteen to one it will nol he over-stated. If I his is so. t hen the forty million of people in the United siaies and British Provinces, making New York their principal commercial metropolis, will I |ual, for advancing its growth, to -i\ hundred million of outsiders, living in far off foreign lands. It is because population and wealth increases much faster in our country than in England, and. in consequence, ils home trade is greater, that New York grows faster than London, and nol because it secures a greater amount of foreign commerce: for. in that respect, London is. yet. far ahead of New York. The indigenous commerce of tic United Kingdom, which centres in London, may now he nearly as greal as thai of our States centering in New York, as the number of people sustaining it is aboui in the proportion of '.".i to 38. The industry of our people, however, is more productive than that of tic people of the United Kingdom, as statistics show a 6 duplication of our wealth in les.* than ten years, which is about half the time required for doubling theirs. In the short period of twenty-five years allowed New York to become more populous than London, our numbers, now thirty-eight million, will have augmented to over seventy million; while that of the United Kingdom will only, at its normal rate of increase, grow np from thirty million to less than forty million. Before the end of that period the British Provinces, beyond our north boundary, will have become a pari of our commercial svstem, if not a component pari of our nationality. These Provinces will then contain nearly ten million of very industrious, hardy and intelligent inhabitants, swelling our number for the home trade to eighty million. Surely, in the lighi of all these considerations, it is not presumptuous or premature to forecast the superiority of New York to L Ion, and its claim, in 1 893, to be, more than any other city, the heart and brain of the commercial world. That a city of that character will, in the regular course of human events, exist, seems to me certain. That it will be developed on the Continent of North America, and, finally, rest on the besi point on our great lakes, seems to me equal!] certain. The Continent of North America has a remarkable depression between the Appelaehian .Mountains, on the east, and the Rocky Mountain ranges, on the west, and extending from the Gulf of Mexico, on the south, to the Arctic Sea, on the north. This constitutes the great interior plain of the Continent, and embraces most of the elements provided by nature to sustain the hulk of the population hereafter to inhabit the < lontinent. In all its immense length and breadth it is interrupted by no mountain barrier, and has, within its eastern portion, no barren waste. Almost everywhere, it is fertile and well-watered. To enable c unmerce among its people to be more rapid and cheap, ii is provided with navigable rivers and lakes to the extent of tens of thousands of miles, and its unobstructed surface ina\ he. everywhere, permiated by cheaply-made railroads. Tin' first ami greatest necessity id' man is food. At what point or points in the interior plain of North America, can this he obtained, in quantity to feed a large city, at I he cheapest rate? It seems to he proved, by the results of the last twenty-five years, that the two most prominent of these points are < Ihicago and Toledo : as these have been the primary gathering ports of the greatest amounts of the most needful articles of food ; and they seem to have such commanding positions for commerce, interior and exterior to our country, as to justify I he claim to precedence overall others. The annual receipts of breadstuff's at these cities, for export, has, for several years, exceeded fifty million id' bushels. At ten bushels to the individual, this would feed five million people. Thai number, therefore, in addition to their present population, could have been fed in these cities, at less cost than at any other place to which this grain was transported, by all the cost of that transportation. Nen York, Boston, and other far-off cities, consumed and distributed most of these fifty million hnshels of food, and their various industries were sustained by it. at a cost id' not less than ten million dollars beyond its value, jn these interior cities. If these industries could have hem carried on as well in Toledo and Chicago, as in New York and Boston, those engaged in them, in those exterior cities, lost the ten million in consequence of not being at the place where the cheapest bread could have been obtained. Hut. breadstuff's form hut one article of necessary food. Next to them comes meat. It will he a moderate estimate to rate the animal food sent annually from Chicago and Toledo, and consisting of cattle, sheep, live bogs, dressed hogs, beef, pork, cut meats, lard, butter, etc, as amply sufficient to supph the five million people which their surplus breadstuffs provides for. These articles, valued at Chicago and Toledo, at twenty-five million dollars, probably cost the consumers, in the Eastern and European cities, not less than thirty-live million, making another ten million added to the cost of living in those cities that might have been saved, if the consumers had lived in or near these lake cities. These and other estimates are not designed to hi' exact, lint sufficiently so to justify the position we take. Doubtless, many of the consumers, in Eastern ;i ikI European cities, can afford fco pay this additional cost of food, in consideration of the more perfect organization of labor, and other advantages, in the older cities. If. then, we modify our estimate of the loss of the five millions excrescent population thai are fed on far-fetched food, and make it half what is Bel down above, .so as to reduce it to ten million, the truth will, probably, be closely approximated. The speech of Hon. S. B. Ruggles, in the Canal Convention at Chicago, gives a striking view of the resources of the Lake States, in the production of human food. Does he ao\ over-estimate the quantity they are likely to easportf According to ]>r. Chalmers "the bulkiness of human food forms one of those obstructions in the working of the economic machine which tends to equalize the population of every country with its food-producing power." Mr. Ruggles, by converting the corn (and he might have added the grass) crop into animal loud, has. measurably, removed the obstacle of bulkiness to the extensive export, from the Lake States, to the more expensively fed population of other countries. Still the fad remains I hal the consumers of this animal food, and of the fifty million bushels of our breadstuff's, in Great Britain and in our Eastern States, year by year, must pay the cost of transportation, and profits, from Chicago and Toledo, over and above whai would be the cost to l hem. if located in these cities. It is not too high an estimate to put this additional cos! ai thirty-three and one-third per cent. The persons that consume this food laborers, mechanics, etc — would ael wisely by removing to the cities which, in other respects than cheap food, would afford them a heller home than they now have. They will come to the greal centres, where food is gathered in, and there pursue their avocations to better advantage than in the over-peopled country they leave. Mr. Ruggles is a far-seeing man. hut he seems not properly to estimate the rapid growth of interior cities, and their ability, inconsequence, to consume a large portion of the surplus of agriculture which is now so great. The lake eiiies. in position and climate, are unequaled for the advantages they oiler the immigrant. They are central to the besl regions of the earth, for the growth of the besl fruits, grains and animals, to [\-n\ men ; and, with these advantages, and a healthful climate, may claim to he the nurseries of the best men. The food, as heretofore, will attract to it the mouths to feed ii] it. Labor will seek cheap food with good wages. It has always done so. The lake cities, although bul germs of what they are to he. have exhibited, in their growth, the truth of this principle. A'o other commercial centres have been so rapidly peopled, in their early life. The attainment of cheap food has been the chief cause of this large increase. | See Appendix, B]. \e\i to food, as a prime necessil \ . comes clothing. The chief materials of this are wool. cotton, linl and leather, for all conditions of people. Wool and lint will lie bough! cheaper in the lake cities than in the Atlantic cities, and raw cotton as cheaply, in Chicago and Toledo, as at anj leading eastern city. As the operative will he i'vi\ on cheaper food, the manufacturers of these articles will, for this and other reasons hereafter given, find these lake cities a good location for factories. Situated centrally to the besl grass and grain growing region of the continent, Chicago and Toledo will, naturally, concentrate in their markets a large portion of the wool grown in the country. Tin' production of flax and hemp will, probably, in proportion to its use, be as great within the commercial control of these cities as that of wool, the climate and soil being well-adapted to their gTOM Ih- Col ton will, probably, in a few years, he grown west of the Mississippi, as largely as east of it. and will find ils primary markets, in largest quantity, at Memphis. Vicksburg, New Orleans, and other favorable points on the hanks of the western tributaries of the greal river. From these cities it can he delivered to the manufacturer at Chicago and Toledo as cheaply as at the manufacturing cities of New England ami New York. In the climate where human brain and muscle have greatesl activity and endurance, and where things called for by a high state of civilization can he broughl together for use and exchange with least expenditure of time and money, the ultimate city of the human family will I"' developed. In its early life it will be Been to grow rapidly, by reason of its facility to procure cheap food, clothing and shelter. These advantages continuing, and a higher life than a merely comfortable existence, procurable as well there as elsewhere, its growth will have no check, of long duration, but the Ian of progress, as shown in its first serii s of years, and decades of years, will, probably, be the Ian of its maturing grow th, IV > r a period not easy to esl imate. [ See Appendix, B |. The climate of the lake borders is invigorating and adapted to the besl race of man. The breezes over tin- pure waters of thes • in lam I seas, and from the cultivated plains of Illinois, and the well-drained woodlands and fields of -Ohio and Michigan, will possess more tonic power than the ocean winds, without their harsh characteristics. For healthfulness, tin. positions at the In -ads of Lakes Michigan and Brie, being elevated rain feel above the ocean' arc believed to be superior to that of New York. For transportation by water, in all directions, it may admit of question whether the advantage is on the side of the great Atlantic city or the rivals, hereafter to be developed, on the lakes. II' New York claims to have all the oceans and their connecting navigable waters, the lake cities may claim that, before New York shall have brought the centre of the world's commerce from L Ion, si good navigable passage for lake ships to the ocean will have been made, for the upper lake cities, so as tn place them in a position l" participate in foreign commerce. But, for interior commerce, which all concede fco he tar more important than foreign, the water channels, b\ Uke, river and canal, which are immediately available lor Chicago and Toledo, these cities have a great advantage over New York, for fchey extend in all directions, and have a natural concentration at these points. New York has only a water channel, for interior commerce, in one direction. to-Wit: northward, up the Hudson River. This, with its entering canals, forms almost the only ^ater-way it has for interior commerce. The commercial instrumentalities— railways and waggon-roads— may !»■ made from Chicago and Toledo to nearly all points of the compass, almost without obstruction, for long distances. Railways are most naturally placed, and most profitably usd. by the side of the best water-ways. Both these means of transportation seek the lowest levels, preferring to avoid the task of working against gravitation; commercial products, like other matters, choosing a down -rade rather than an up grade, The Appalachian ranee ,,f mountains separate a mere margin of our country, lying east of them, from the great body of our lands spread out westward. New York occupies a central position in this marginal section. Two low passes through the mountains— one by the Mohawk liner, and the other by Lake Cbamplain— are the only routes, unobstructed by mountain ranges, which are open to her choice, to afford her railway communication with the body of the nation, west of the mountains. These passes form her best channels of land transport, as well as the only channels of water transport, with the great central plain. Placed on the ocean border, New York can only have a little more than half the land, within any given radius, from which to obtain trade, that Chicago and Toledo has. These cities command the lowest passage-ways between the b»ke (St. Lawrence) basin and that of the Mississippi waters. The summit-level of the canal and railroad connecting Toledo and Cincinnati is but 400 feet above these cities which are ,,u i lie same plane. The Wabash canal and railroad which connects Toledo with the Wabash valley, rise but 800 feet above the lake in a distance of lit) miles, before they descend towards the centre of the .Mississippi basin, by an almost imperceptible grade. Themargin of the lake basin is but a lew miles from < hica.eo, and rises but 24 feet above the lake. Towards thes,. low valleys the commerce of the country naturally gravitates. Along these channels the commerce between the great interior river system and thegreat lakes naturally Hows. The' river cities, Cincinnati. Madison. Louisville. Kvansville. Paducah. Cairo, Memphis, St. Uuis, Alton. Quincey, Keokuk, Dubuque, Devanport, etc. will use these natural channels for their rapidly growing commerce with and through the great lakes. This advantage, alone, would secure to Chicago and Toledo pre-eminence among the lake cities. Lit ii- go back a Little in our argument. Although London is mm a greater centre of the commercial power of the world than any other city, it is only measurably bo, in a unitary sense. The organizal ion of society, as one whole, is yel too imperfecl to call for the use of one all-directing head, and one central moving heart. In many things Paris claims pre-emin mc s, and many other cities exist almost independent of London. It will only be the ultimate great city thai will fully unite, in itself, the functions analogous to those of the human head ami heart, in relation to the whole family of man. Thai ultimate crowning city w ill be in the interior of North America. " Earth's noblest empire is her last." Berkley was a i rue prophet. The e 'ntre of commercial power will carry with it the centrer of moral and intellectual pre-dominence. Its movement, controled by nature's great law, is steadily n istward. Its semblance, forecasting the future, has arrived in England, and exists in London. Thence, westward, it can find no resting-place until it readies New York. Thai city will stand, for a time, the precursor, the herald, of the final great city of the world, which, within one century from this time, will have been established in the interior, where Chicago or Toledo now forms its nucleus. The same foreshadowing grounds of belief which compel conviction of the future pre-eminence of New York, exist, ami an- put. ait. in in favor of the interior city, as compared with the Atlantic capital. One hundred years is allowed tin- the budding of the world's commercial capital in the world's besi region. One hundred years, at our prei ious rate of increase, will give four duplications, and six hundred millions. Allowing thirty-three and one-third years for future duplications, instead of twenty-five, and we have three hundred millions as the result. Of these, ici less than two hundred and thirty millions will inhabit the interior plain, and the region west of it ; and not over seventy millions will inhabit the margin, east of the Appalachians. What proportion of the two hundred and thirty millions will prefer to transact business with each other, by crossing the mountains toe-ether, carrying with them the articles to be exchanged, to ,\r« York, rather than to meet each other, at the most conveniently located city, in their midst ? The productions of thes i two hundred and thirty millions, intended for exchange with each other, will meet at the most convenient point, central in time and cost, to their homes and exchangeable products. Where will thai point be? Chicago and Toledo are believed to be the true claimants for this high destiny. Which of these has the best, position to become the ultimate great city? In estimating the relative claims of these two young cities to have the greater future. :oncession is made to the present popular opinion which would. without doubt, decide in favor of the larger city. I believe Toledo occupies a better position to become the ultimate city, time's noblest offspring. Some reasons for this belief are submitted. It seems, on examining the position of the two cities on the map of the United states, that Chicago is 1 v central forgathering in north-western commerce. 1 concede this. If there were no counter-balancing power in the commerce of the Stales, cast- of Toledo, of the country east and north of the great lakes, ami of the Atlantic, on all its extended shores, and a rival at the west end of Lake Superior, to come into the account, Toledo would not be thought of as a successful rival of Chicago. But. for many years, I lie centre of industrial power of the world will be, not only east of Toledo, but east of \, w York. Ag before remarked, it is endeavoring to establish itself in London. It will make a stronger and more successful effort to establish itself in New York. In thirty years New York will become the acknowledged successful rival of London. Within the next fifty years it will have established its superiority overall former rivals. If will, then, experience the effects of the inevitable Ian of western progress. The centre of the world's industrial power will be on its way westward of New York. After leaving that city, where will be its resting-place ? The centre of the population of the United States, in L790, was in Maryland. It has 3ince moved steadily in a direction north of west. | See Appendix, C]. In 1850 it was near Pittsburg. In isiin.it was in south-eastern Ohio. IS the Provinces north of us are included 10 the centre of population is now not far from Canton, Stark County, Ohio. If there were i van commerce to V taken into the calculation, Buffalo would now be nearer the centre of industrial power of our country, than any other city, having decided commercial advantages. When the centre of the industrial power of the world shall tremble in the balance, between New York and its western rival, Buffalo will be too distanl from thegreal river commerce and the greai railway concentration of the interior plain ; and the centre of commercial power of the continent will be too far west of it. The movement of this centre of population and industrial power is, undeniably, in the direction of Toledo. Before reaching Toledo there is no position, on or near its movement, so fayorable to a greal concentration of commerce, as in arrest its progress and makeil permanent. Cleveland will be the leas! distant, but her advantages are, obviously, less than those of Toledo. It will be (•unci 'dcd that, if tin' centre of the industrial power of the world ever leaves New York t o establish a rival citj in the plain, it will come as far wesi as Toledo. Will it move farther; and, if it does, will it rest in Chicago? 'I'll'' reasons for making Toledo its first and permanent resting-place .ire numerous. This centre of industrial power will, for many years, he nearer to Toledo than to ( Ihicago. Two hundred and twenty miles, separating the two cities, will have to !»• passed over; and when, if ever, that distance is accomplished, Toledo will have the weight of commercial power on her side. All the time when this centre is approaching Toledo, from the east, and when, if ever, it proceeds so far west as to he nearer Chicago, the advantage will be with Toledo. A line drawn on the map, equi-distani from < Ihicago and Toledo, and bearing norl hward and southward, will, extended northward, cut Lake Michigan west of its outlet, ami also west of the outlet of Lake Superior. Extended southwardly, it goes through Indianapolis and Nashville to Pensacola, on the gulf. All the country east of this middle line is nearer Toledo than Chicago, and so should prefer it as the concentrating point of its commerce. It will be seen, on inspection of this line of equal distance, that it shows all the great lake waters, except Lake Michigan, nearer Toledo than Chicago; Lake- Erie and Ontario, by over 700 miles; Lake Huron, on the average of its shores, of some 200 miles, and Lake Superior about 60 miles. This is a great advantage, for the animal commerce of these lakes, (including Michigan), already, in its infancy, exceeds in value one thousand millions of dollars. It employ- over two thousand vessels, aggregating nearly one million tons. transporting annually (as represent ■ Chicago than to Toledo. Up io this time, Chicago has had a greal advantage over Toledo, in the more rapid developemenl of the country broughi within her commercial control, by being made the focus of the mosl perfec! system of railways anywhere to be found in the world These railways, traversing, for hundreds of miles, in several directions, fertile prairie lands, requiring but a minimum of labor to bring them under cultivation, have, in various waysj encouraged their occupation, so thai the} have already, to a greal extent, reached the maximum of their products exportable through Chicago. Toledo, on the other hand, has been Burrounded by a dense fores! of timber, for hundreds of miles. The demand for timber is, now, opening this fores! ofrich lands to cultivation, with profil to the owners; so that, with the extention of railways in progress and abonl to be constructed, for the benefit of Toledo, a more even race with the prairie city maj be relied on. Indeed, it will be strange if the woodland city dues nut soon exhibil decided proofs of a higher rale of progress. We will now go back a little in our discussion t i give additional reasons why New York will overtake ami surpass London. For the firsi time in the enumeration of the people of the two nations, of which these cities are the commercial capitals, to-wit: in I860 for the United States, and 1861 tor the United Kingdom, tin' United Stales were ascertained to be the more populous. The increase of the United States, during the preceding decade, was35 percent.; thai of the United Kingdom, LO per cent. The aggregate increase of the United States was 8,251,445; of the United Kingdom, 2,249,355. At this lime. L868, the population of the United States exceeds that of the United Kingdom some seven millions. Inthesame decade, New York with her suburbs — Brooklyn, Jersey City, etc. — increased TO per cent., in amount 520,888, while London, on a basis three times as great, increased hut 440,798. The result id' this decade represents fairly the law of growth of the two nations and their capitals. Cities, like individuals, have a law of growth that may be said to be constitutional and inherent. For instance: London developes numbers at aboul the annual average rate of two per cent., and New York, five per cent. These ratesare, approximately, accurate for long periods, hitt not to he relied on lor one year, or any short period of years. These remarks apply to the following named cities' rates of growth. They approximate the true law of their annual growth : Chicago, 12 1-2 per cent.; Toledo, 12 per cent.; Milwaukee, Detroit, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Buffalo and St. Louis, about 8 per cent. These cities are the principal places which can justly claim to be on or near the line of march id' the centre of the industrial power of the Continent ; and they do not fail to indicate, by their rapid growth, their claim to future greatness. More and more industrial power centres in cities. More and more these cities find their lies) positions, and. consequently, mosl rapid developemenl, in a climate requiring and producing vigorous men. Mosl of the greal cities of Europe are north of fche 45th parallel of latitude; the modern and most thriving of them are above the 50th parallel. A similar climate in the United States, east id' the Rocky Mountains, is found in the range between the 40th and 45th parallel. Within these we find our chief city developement. [See Appendix, D]. .Much error has prevailed respecting i lie merits of id i male in the production and modification of the besi plants and animals for the use of man, and, i>\ their use, of the besl ra< fmen. Manx suppose an equible climate, having tin.' least deviation from a uniform temperature, is besl for man. and the productions which go to make up human growth and social developement. Others believe a /rm-m climate, with moderate variations of temperature, mosl favorable to human happiness and political 12 power — a climate existing chiefly between the tropics and latitude 38. In the infancy of society, these views were more nearly correct than they are now. In the early Btages of progress from a savage Inwards a civilized condition, a semi-tropical climate was evidently, beat calculated to enable the first steps to 1"' taken towards a civilized condition. Tropical man, near the ocean level, lived with little need of exertion of body or mind. Fruii growing without hie labor or car.' supplied him with fond: clothing was n<>t needed to guard him against cold. Little labor was required I" give bim all needed shelter. And bo, there being no necessity to labor, or to invent, he lived, and he still lives, in a condition but a few grades above the beasts which surround him. The man of. the warm climate, outside of the tropics, has need of more exertion and contrivance to save him from the pains of hunger and cold, and bo he, from necessity, developes more active faculties, and becomes more of a man than the man of the tropics. Yet a moderate amount of exertion and contrivance serves his turn, and he progresses bIowIj towards a higher civilization. Next, above the man of a warm climate, comes the man of higher latitudes, and countries bul little elevated above the ocean level ; for example : the people living on the borders of the British Channel, the North Sea, and the Baltic. Their climate is, comparatively, equible, lint lias enough of the cold of winter and the heats of summer to make it necessary for them to put forth a larger measure of activity and contrivance to keep themselves comfortably fed, clothed and sheltered. The man of north-western Europe lias made greater advances in power, by virtue of his necessities, and the blessings resulting from them, than the man of the lower latitudes, whoso wants are less numerous and urgent lint he is not the hest possible man. There is a climate which has the capacity to produce a better man. Thai climate is characterized, by Humboldt, as an excessive climate ; and, also, as a continental climate. It is a climate of extremes of heal and cold, of very hoi summers and very cold winters, accumulating during the cold of winter a nervous susceptibility in animals, and something analogous in plants, which enhances the effect of the greal snnun t heat, in the evolution of vegitable growth and of animal activity and power. It is believed to be historically true thai the best race of man. and the plants and animals best adapted to maintain his superiority, originated in a continental climate, having a greal range of temperature. When he has changed his residence and made a new home, in hot or equible climates, he has, uniformly, deteriorated in character, and it has been, only, when he has migrated to a climate like that of his origin that he has made tic best progress in en ilizat ion ami true manhood. The elevated regions of this excessive climate, in tin middle latitudes, are believed to be the best for this race of men. North America affords a laTger area appropriate for the developement of this race, than the Eastern Continent. In this continent will be brought together the largest and most active portion of this race, and on its greal interior plain will grow up the greatest aggregation, the greatest cation, the last and noblest en i] lire of man. Its climate gives the greatest nervous and muscular power to man, and the animals best adapted to his wants. It enables him to grow the greatest varietj of best cerials, the best fruits, and the best animals for his use, as well as the best material for his clothing and shelter. No other region of the globe, of dike extent, can equal it. in its capacity to produce the best fruits adapited to the health and enjoyment of the best race of men. Humboldt, in his "Aspects of Nature," testifies to the superiority of the grape grown near Astrachan. in the excessive climate of eastern Europe, near latitude 4nr borne commercial Bystem will then embrace aboul one hundred and thirty million. < >f this nnmber, there will live not less than ninety-live million nearer Toledo than to New York ; and some thirty-live million nearer to New York : giving an excess of borne population of sixty million in favor of Toledo, equal, in c mercial power, to nine hundred million foreigners. New York will not then monopolize our foreign commerce. All the commerce commanded by the Gulf of St. Lawrence and Hudson's Bay, may be more conveniently brought into connection with Toledo. There will, then, be the Pacific commerce, in the track of which, between the two oceans, Toledo and Chicago will be situated. It is not for us to know what extension of the commerce of eastern Asia with the United States will take place, in the coming fifty years. It seems probable thai there will be a large migration from Japan, China, ana possibly India, to the western coast of oui country. Our undeveloped resources call for all the labor and skill which can be brought from the over-peopled lands of Asia and Europe. Hunger is an imperative master which will bring to the land of plenty many millions now Buffering under its power. Jt would be to leave an important clement out of the calculation, not to give much weigh! to the effect this anticipated migration of the Asiatics may have in determining the position of the greal c Mitral city of 1968 : or,- indeed, of the city of 1918. 'I""- coming 50 years will probablj do more for the concentration of the world's trafic than all th ■ war- of th ■ past. It is but 61 years since Fulton demonstrated the practicability of using steam, as a motive power, in navigation, and it was not till many years alter thai it became much more than an experiment. Now, all waters are witnesses of its triumphs. Steam-propelled cars and ships will, before the 50 years will have passed, bring within their power the great body of the world's commerce, and cause all races of men to fraternize, in commercial transactions. It is hut 4o years since the tirst locomotive on a railway (the Liverpool h Manchester) proved its power to draw, with much speed, a train of cars. Three years will scarcely pass away before it will triumph over the Rocky Mountains, in its passage across the broad continent of North America. Jt is not unreasonable to anticipate thai an iron or Bteel track, for it,- use, will, before the end offiftj years, bestride the greal Eastern Continenl from the North Sea and British Channel, around which the commerce of Europe centres, to the Yellow Sea of tin- Pacific, the central sea of the commerce of eastern Asia. It is quite evident, even now. that commerce moved l believe them destined to dominate the location of the greal interior city. Mure and more they have drawn trade from the greai river valleys of the plain, proving the superiority of their posit ion to that of cities on the borders of the greai rivers The general direction of the lakes being easl and west, and so in the line of the greai c nerce of the world, gives the cities on their borders, .-placed in or near this line, very greai advantages over all others. [See Appendix, !•]. II lines not seem unreasonable to expect Toledo to continue, fur mam years, to grow aa fast, in proportion, as il has since 1840, when its firsi census was taken. From thai time il has labored under many disadvantages which are either uo longer operative, or are being removed. For years, the few country people, depended on for its support, weakened by lexers, incident tn a new country, had very little surplus \\ ith n hich to trade. The new eii\ was sickly, and was reputed to be so in an extraordinary degree. It had. as rivals, on all sides, towns of better reputation and larger size. It had to overcome, under these and other disadvantages, the rivaly, mie after another, lirst of its nearest neighbors, and. afterwards, of ii- more remote. These rivals. Perrysburg, Staumee, Monroe, Adrian, and Sandusky City, were, comparatively, old and established places of business before Toledo existed. Now. and hereafter, il has for reputed rivals, Detroit. Cleveland, Cincinnati and Chicago. Under all these disadvantages, it has increased, in the aggregate of the thirty-eight years, over 12 per cent, annually. There appears to be no reason to expect a lower per centage of increase for many years. hereafter. As aids to itsgrow th it will have not only the direct trade of farmers. as ai first, but of villages, towns, small cities, and. ultimately, of large cities. It is thus that citiesof greai inhereni merits of location grow faster as they grow larger, and. with recently invented appliances, all aid each other. There is not any necessary antagonism. It is besl I'm- all that each should avail of its inherent advantages, and soall flourish together. There are abundant resources for all. Jealousy and antagonism are unwise, for they react and injure where they design to benefit. The better city may noi he moved to us, but we maj move to it. The choice is open. There is room in the hest localities as ample as in the 1 rest. The day may come when steam-propelled canal-boats will connect the commerce of the Ohio River, at Cincinnati, with that of the Lakes, ai Toledo; and. also, the commerce of the Mississippi, at Rock Island, with that of the Lakes, at Chicago and Toledo. The time may he fairly anticipated when an improved railroad, little over two hundred miles in length, will bring the railway commerce of Chicago in connection with lake transportation to the harbor of Toledo. It is only a question of the relative cosi of freight, by 220 miles of railway and 700 miles of hike. The day will surely come when Toledo and Chicago will have a good water-way, for lake vessels to the ocean, and by more than one route. Three new routes are practicable. That from Buffalo, by enlarging the capacity of the Erie Canal; from Oswego to Albany, occupying the same route alone- the Mohawk : and that by way of the St. Lawrence, the Caughuawaga Canal, to Lake Champlain, and thence to Albany. These are all practicable, without greai cost The route now in use. by way of the Welland Canal and St. Lawrence, to Montreal, needs only a moderate enlargement of its locks and canals to allow the passage of large propellers between the upper lakes and the ocean. If it is true that the movement of human power is SO surely westward as to make il reasonably certain thai .New York will become greater than London ; if it is true that this movement will carry a great preponderance of numbers and wealth into the greai central plain; if it is true thai the home commerce of the continent, moved on land and water, i: is iMu greatly in excess of its foreign commerce, and constantlj increasing in proportion ; if it is true thai this home commerce concentrates more and more in cities of II13 interior plain; if il is true thai the lake cities concentrate this home commerce more than the river cities of the plain ; if ii is true that, of all the lake cities, Chicago and Toledo grow faster, by virtue of their power to bring to themselves a greater primarj 1 merce than any other lake cities; if commerce by land is becoming much more important, in our country, than commerce by water; if all these are true lads, does il not follow, ae surelj as the day succeeds the night, thai the great city of the future will be in our great interior plain ; and, with reasonable certainty, may il not be anticipated thai Chicago or Toledo will be thai city? Is it because Chicago is further West than Toledo and so commands a larger extent 01 country, in that direction, thai ii has so far out-stripped its sister of Lake Erie; or is ii owing to si mie other cause than the superiority ofposition ? Is nut the sufficient cause Found in th i facility of opening land to cultivation afforded by the inviting prairie on all sidi the former, and the difficulty of divesting theso^lof the heavy foresi surrounding the latter? To test the relative merit of the position of these cities respectively, lei as suppose Chicago to have been surrounded by a dense forest, and the whole country within the reach of its natural commercial command, like thai which surrounded Toledo in 1832; which, in that ciinlit ion. would now be the greai ir? Do '-any on.' doubt that it would bs Toledo? Again : let us imagine Toledo, at that tim ■, surrounded by a region of prairies, like thai of Chicago' so that, the merit of position, alone, had determined their relative growth. Can there be a doubt that Toledo, now. would be the greater city? It is, then, the prairies, only, which has given Chicago the. preference. It is. then, the forest that lias retarded the growth of Toledo. What will be the effect of prairie ami forest, on these cities, hereafter? The prairies will, to a large extent, be monopolized by large holders, be cultivated by machinery, and so lie sparcely inhabited. The forest impediment to cultivation will, every year, grew less.. Already. in considerable portions, its removal is a source of profit. It is becoming an important source of revenue. It is being divided into small holdings and, so. increasing in density of population. If. now. khz position of Toledo has been inferior, only, because of the advantage to Chicago of her prairies; that inferiority is being removed and becomes a superiority, when, in addition to the advantage of having the ground, in sufficient quantity, opened for use, there remain- a valuable supply of timber land, intersperced and available, for the various purposes of advancing art in city ami country, at home ami for export, abroad. Ami. now. may it not be justly claimed that, the westward movemeni of human power will, much within one hundred years, bring the world's great centre of commerce to New York. and. if to New York, then to an interior city. — if to an interior city, then to a lake city. — and. if to a lake city, then to Chicago or Toledo, as the natural advantages of position shall finally prove more powerful to favor the one or the other. One hundred years ! What may we not hope of developemeni in that period; long, if measured by the duration of human life; short for the life of a nation, ami very short in comparison with the life of the human race. Looking back one hundred years, we find that some 4,000,000 of population of British Colonies, have grown to 10,000,000. New York, then, was about two-thirds the size of Toledo, now. (Mir city population has increased more than thirty fold. Our wealth has increased faster than our cities. One hundred years to come, with the command of steam, electricity, and we know not what other and superior agencies for wonder-working, can scarcelj fail to produce results of a magnitude beyond the power of the mosi vigorous imagination to conceive. The cities of western Europeare grand out-growths of modern Improvements, but they will be deemed, in their present c litioii. rude and small, in comparison with the vast emporiums which, iii one hundred years, will grow up on our continent. :: APPENDIX A. COMMERCE OF TOLEDO AND CHICAGO, The following tables will enable Hie reader to make comparisons as to Ibe business in some branches o( trade of our interior cities, and show plainly thai the great current is by the hike route, and not bj the Mississippi wati The following remarks and tables are from an official canal document, and may be relied on as correct : Jusl in the sum... proportion thai you ch lapen tran3p irtati >n yo i arc enabled to extend the boundaries in from which your surplus productions may be drawn to a remunerative market. This fact lias already enabled our enterprising merchants to penetrate the interior to such an extent that wc have demonstrated our ability, by artificial water communications, and the ureal lines of railroads running between the East and the West, al present, to compete successfully with the .ureal natural outlets which drain the vallej 9 of the Si Law rencc, and the still more fertile valley of the Mississippi, The interior of this contine it is the region whe ■ . hereafter, power— political, commercial and social- is to be fell in the whole administration of the Government. Over five hundred million of dollars have already been expended in opening lines of railway communication between the food-producing region of the West and the Atlantic seaboard. This sum is in lependent of the amount expended in the construction of the Erie and Oswego Canals, upon which has been borne the ureal proportion of all the produi ts of the West, seeking a market in the East. The completion of the Erie Canal first Stimulated a trade that has since attained such gigantic proportions. From an able itatistieal article, prepared by II. V. Poor, Esq . Secretary of the Pacific Railway Company, we learn that, as late as i^iT, the number of tons of western produce, reaching tide water through the Erie Canal, was only 56,225. In 1861 it had increased to 2,156,000. for the present year, 186?, it will probably reach more than '■'< ouO.OOO. ■lo The following table will show the ratio of this increase up lo 1800, with the cost, including tolls, ol transporting a ton ol merchandise from lake Erie lo the Hudson : [It h;is increased greatly since I860]. "Y" IE .A. IRS . Cost per Ton. 1*37 56,255 1838 - 83,233 i i •• 121,071 1840 - 158,148 1841 - 231,170 1842- 231.477 1843... 250,376 is 14 303,025 1845 - 304,551 1846 506,830 I si; _ 812.840 1848 - 650,154 is Hi 768,659 1850 .- - - - 773,858 1851. 966,993 1852 1.1 51, (ITS 1853 1,213,090 1854 1,100,526 1855 1,092,876 1856 1,212,550 1857 -.- - 919,998 1858- - - 1,273,099 1859.. 1,036,634 1860. --. - 1,500,000 Of the tonnage of the Canal, delivered at tide-water, in 1800, 1,367,56 I tons were cereals, and 12, 524 tons animal food. The Erie and Central Railroads, the same year, brought to tide-water 425,185 tons of animal, and 540,000 tons of vegetable food ; almost the whole of it the product of the West The value nfthe vegetable and animal food, of the three lines, was equal to $1Ts,ooO,000. The other great lines such as the Ogdensburgh, Pennsylvania, Baltimore ami Ohio, swelled the aggregate value to at l O 1861. 1862. 1863. 1864. 1865. 1866. 1867. 1,406,476 0,277,400 5,812,038 41,428 43,25; 1,585,335 9,827,629 8,813,709 234,759 107,506 1,126,260 1,052,474 0,194,130 7,337,099 l,705,n!iii 1,041,160 ;:::;, I'.ii: 454254 608 74,681 21,52'.i 39,435 1,068,102 730,207 008,004 4,731,803 1,812,899 2,150,875 1,613,068 4,439,908 5,747,005 845,001 1,218,279 1,038,293 113,087 102,850 48,399 78.141 340,864 223.474 Wheat, bushels Corn, bushels < (ats, bushels Barley, bushels Rye, bushels. Total Grain, Bi shels 18,700,510 21,910,228 8,695,159 8,846,623 7,711,648 The annexed table shows the total value of Exports and Imports of Toledo, for each of the following yea is : 1858, total value. 1860, " " . 1861, " " . 1863, " " . 18611, " " . 1867, " " . I M l'o UTS. EXPORTS. 31,700,085 s 85.460,031 10,727.754 52,213,627 81,180,366 95,005,758 158967,01 i' 1 77 547,071 161,652,597 181,329,496 167,786,626 185,1 15,090 DKTHOIT. Flour, barrels. 1863. 1864. 1865. 1,081,298 825,537 848,138 Wheal, bushels. Corn, bushels. .. ( >aK bushels . . Barley, bushels. Rye, bushels. . . i oi ll Grain, Bushels 3,438,048 2,222,66(1 356,205 656,496 188,253 17,344 22 7,417 851,756 9,618 1,497,197 407,773 394,504 2 1 9.01 is 24,202 1,432,865 2,613 1862,'G3. ( lorn, sacks 265,934 ( litis, bushels .... 937,139 Wheat, bushels... 1,232,961 Flour, barrels . . - 405,570 ( 'otton, bales 45,998 Rj e, bushels. . .. 25,115 23 EXPORTS OF CINCINNATI. ,'63. 1863,'6-1. 1864,'65. 1865,'66. 1866,'67. total \ \i i i: exports 851.392 943,737 393,268 24.340 342,753 686,893 136,186 89,485 15,000 385.843 147,091 873,775 51 1,450 152,061 24,381 549.942 295 822 972.982 112,068 1 H,250 106,319 EXPORTS OP CHICAGO. Corn, bushels ( >:i i s. bushels . . Wheat, bushels Flour, barrels mshels 1862, '63. 29,452,610 3,1 i 13.808,898 1,739,849 1863, '64. 24.906,934 9,909,175 10,759,152 1,507,816 D83.940 1864, '65. 12,740 543 16,470,929 10,249,330 1,287,545 683,946 1865, '66. 1866, '67. 25,228,526 10,598,061 8,098.968 1,523,786 1,032,200 32,953,530 9,564,223 10,341,549 2,197,787 1,489,895 The fol lowing are the routes by which the Grain Exports of Chicago, for the year 1867, were carried : I'l.OUli, BARR] win; rr, Bl SIIBLS. CORN, l.l SHELS. OATS, l-.l SHELS. RYE, BUSHELS. BARLEY, BTJSHE1 B. By Western and Southern Railroads By Eeastern Railrods 481,491 21 S 130,522 1,554,776 5,827,846 235,758 908,085 15,618 31,451,885 243,513 1, 4.52,1 II'.' 7,395,113 99,132 158,314 1, 911, 7114 1,029,629 3,586 29,219 127,461 IISS/.'4'I 60 111,657 :;'.is,:i7l APPENDIX IB In deducing, from their pasl history, the law of growth of our cities, ii must nut be inferred that it 1ms no limit of time ami numbers. It is evident, when cities grow much faster than the country which contains them, thai they t.\ i 1 1 reach a limit at which their progress will he Blackened, and, finally stopped In a fully developed country, the cities will contain more lhan hall' the people. It is obvious that a time will arrive when both country ami city will have obtained their maximum of population. Wo may fairly expect longer life for tin- cities of our great plain, ami a longer continuance of the law of growth manifested in their early lite, than for the cities of "hi ami well developed countries. Tie y should grow rapidly, as long as the country which sustains them grows in numbers ami wealth. From 1840, when the first census oi Chicago ami Toledo was taken, their average period of duplication iii- been live years for tin- foimcr and six years for the latter, thus : 1SIII IS III 1852 I B58 1864 1870 TOLEDO. 2,440 1,880 9,760 in. -.-jo 89,040 1840. 1845. |s.-.V inch. 1865. 1870. CHICAGO. 1. 47H 8,940 17.980 35,960 143,800 287,680 ■J I These figures approximate the numbers contained in these cities, al the'various dates, and cannot vary much from tlie result oftl e census of 1870. The same ratio, carried forward to the year 1900, would give Toledo 1,249,280, and Chicago l*,4l 1,520 This Beems absurd. A duplication of Chicago, in periods of sis years, would give 4,513,280. New York should then have about 6,600,000, and London about 5,< ,000; allowing the former n continued dnplii ation of fifteen years, and the latter of forty years. Thirty-two years seems quite ion short a period for Mich great changes. II we suppose Chicago to slacken her rate of growth to a duplication in seven years, from the year 1870 l" 1898, and then, in ten years, it will show thus : 1S70 282,080 I 1898 4,513,380 is;: _. 504,1110 I 1908 9,026,560 1884 1.128,420 l'JIS... 18,053,120 1891 2,256,640 | Allowing Toledo a continued duplication in periods of six years, her numbers, in 1918, would be 9,994,240 These are large estimates, for fifty years. The reader will pmbably require fifty years, in addition, to satisfy himself that such numbers will be realized. The largest city, then, will lie spread over a wide territory, and contain not less than one twentieth of the population of the whole- country. APPENDIX C The seventeen Atlantic States, including Vermont ami District of Columbia, increased in population, between 1850 ami 1860, 2,759,659, on a basis of 13,106,441, being 21 35-100 per cent. The seventeen Interior and Gulf States, with seven Territories, during the same time, increased 5,567,095 on a basis ol 9,885,935, being at the rale of 56 41-100 per 'cut. The six north-eastern States gained, from lHoO to 1860, 407,185. The following shows the amount of increase, in the six north-western Lake States: Ohio, 359,270 Indiana, 362,368 ; Michigan, 351,458 ; Illinois, 800,283; Wisconsin, 470,488 ; Minnesota, 155,90.5. Total 2,559,529. Six River States: Kentucky, 173,308; Tennessee, 107,130, Iowa, 482,000; Missouri, 491,273; Arkansas, 235,530 ; Kansas, 107, 100. Total, 1.586,341. Since 1860, the growth of the Lake States and Lake Cities have not failed lo maintain the superior rate, compared with slales and cities of the other sections of our country, as shown by the census of that year. POPULATION OP CITIES. The following table exhibits the population of our ten largest exterior a apori cities, in comparison with the ten largest interior cities, in 1850 and I860, showing their growth during thai interval of lime : Interior Cities. 1850. 1860. INCREASE PER (INI. New York, including Philadelphia Brooklyn and Jersey City 658,135 408,762 163,318 119,461 136 881 38,849 50,763 40.001 41,513 42,!>s5 1,1811.023 568,034 214,040 108.4:2 177,902 71.1111 63,368 01.400 411,914 51,210 70 39 Baltimore 32 New < Mlcans 41 Boston ::i 85 Albany 24 Washington 52 i; 10 1,699,708 2,604,300 53 25 Ten Interior Cities. 1850. 1860. INCREASE i-c i: i ext. 115,486 77 Ml 1 ! 28,903 43,261 71,595 43,19-1 36,403 21,019 20,061 21,400 171,293 Hill.r.77 109,4 10 81,541 83.909 09,740 48,243 46,834 45,315 43,550 IS 106 205 93 17 62 32 123 124 105 St. Louis , Chicago Buffalo.. Pittsburg, with suburbs Louisville Rochester Detroit Milu aukee Cleveland 479,183 860,502 79 The following table gives the population, according to the United States Census Returns, of the ten most populous interior cities of the great eentral river region in comparison with the ten largest cities on the United States borders of the great lakes, in 1850 and 18G0, with the percentage of growth, separately, and in the aggregate : Ten Cities of* the River "Region. 1850. I860. INCREASE PER CENT. Cincinnati 115,436 77,850 71,595 43.194 8,851 1(1,165 9,408 5,085 6,911 4,434 171,293 100,577 83,909 69,740 2. ',025 16,987 10,471 14.425 13,718 13,553 48 106 Pittsburg, with Alleghany and Birmingham 14 01 155 Nashville 07 75 183 98 200 Total 352.949 583,409 65 Ten Cities of tlie Lake Region. 1850. 1860. 100,430 81,541 40,834 45,335 45,550 16,117 13,70s 11.113 8,408 8,058 INCREASE PER CENT. ORDER OF GROWTH. Chicago 29,293 42,261 21,019 30,001 21,400 12,305 3,839 5,840 5.1 is 7 3,147 265 93 122 124 105 32 260 00 57 156 1 Buffalo 7 Detroit 5 4 Cleveland G < Iswego Toledo 10 o Erie 8 Sandusky Grand Rapids .. . 3 164,811 '1S4.14S 133 [FROM THE NEW YORK EVENING POST.] The commerce of the great plain more and more seeks the lake ports in preference to the river cities. Of this fact any one can get the proofs by examining the commercial reports, during the last ten years, of the cities of St. Louis and Chicago, and of Cincinnati and Toledo. As between the old and new states, the balance of population is already slightly in favor of the new. At the same rate of increase as from 1850 to 1860, these sections will contain, in 1870: the Atlantic States, 10,253,513, and the new States, 34,170,084. At present, the urban and suburban population of the old free States constitutes about one-third of the whole number; while in the new free States about five-sixth are engaged, directly or indirectly, in the cultivation of the soil. This disproportion is in process of rapid reduction. In postage, Toledo stands among all the cities of the Union : according to number of papers delivered, as No. 8; number of delivered letters, as No. 20; number of collected letters, as No 27. 4 26 COMPARATIVE SALES OF WESTERN CITIES. In Chicago, last year, fifty-six firms returned sales exceeding £1,000,000, while there were fifteen each in St. Louis, Milwaukee and Cincinnati. In Chicago the number of firms whose sales exceeded $2,000,000, was fourteen ; in Cincinnati, four; St. Louis, one; Milwaukee, five. The heaviest sales reported by a i ngle house in Chicago, were $9,220,9(57 ; in Cincinnati, $2,700,000 ; in St. Louis, $3,127,223 ; in Milwaukee. $5,824,000. VALUE OF MAUFACTURE8 IN THE UNITED STATES IN 1850 AND 18G0. According to the census returns, at these two periods, the capital employed in this department of our national industry ;vas: In 1150. .*. $ 527,200,193 In 18G0 1,159,000,000 The number of hands employed was ; in 18o0 r F ,. m . lk , s <,.,,--,., Tn iQffk } Males 1.100,000 111 100U fFemales 285,000 The value of the annual product was : In 1850 $1,013,336,468 In 1860 1,900,000,000 Establishments having an annual product of less than $500 are not included in either census returns. Increase of capital per cent, during the ten years : In all the States and Territories 100 per cent. In all the Southern and Southwestern States 80 " In the New England States 64 " " In the Middle States - 97 " " In the Western States 152 " " The percentage of increase in annual value of products : In all the States and Territories '. 87 per cent- In the Southern and Southwestern States 81 " " In the New England States.. 80 '• " In the Middle Slates 70 " " In the Western States 109 " " Increase per cent in number of hands employed : In all the States and Territories > * Ialcs , £ per cent. ) Females 20 In the Southern and Southwestern States I S^ffi fn « " j Females 10 In the New England States [ f^^""."V ."."."."".""." '."'. '.'.'. '. III"l7 " " in the Middle states } F^io7:y//.;y :;::;:::::::::::::::;:1 :: :: In the WesternSta.es f ^7." ".7 777777777777797; « » From the above figures it appears that the increase in males employed was nearly double that of females, fiir the whole country; and only in the Western States was the increase per c:-nt. greater in females than males. APPENDIX D. There is a philosophy of climatical influence, in the character of man, animals and plants which can be well developed, exemplified and illustrated, only, by a familiar knowledge of these departments of natural history. As I have not that knowledge, I will only express my belief that the best possible climate, for the attainment of their highest and best characteristics, is that which requires the exertion of their utmost powers to overcome the obstacles which it interposes to their developement. Caucasian man has proved that climate, lor himself, and the animals and plants promotive of his highest good, to be within a few degrees of the annual isotherm of 50 degrees Farenhcit. The elevated, and, generally, barren plain of Arabia, produced a race so powerful that it, seemingly, makes an exception to the law above expressed, but the anomily is only so when not understood. The Arab man and the Arab horse improved in character when transplanted to a colder climate with greater extremes of temperature. THE ZONE OF GREAT CITIES Disturnell, tne geographer, in a paper read before the American Geographical and Statistical Society, of New York, in 1860, on the influence of climate, etc., on tne growth of cities, gives a list of cities, with their population, in different /.ones of climate. In the middle zone, having a mean animal temperature between 4S and 52 degrees Fahrenheit, his list embraces most of the great cities of the world, having an aggregate population of 9,233,984 His list of cities in the northern zone, having a mean annual temperature between 40 and 48 degrees Fahrenheit, embraces an aggregate population of 2,*19,418 ; and in the warmer zone, having a mean annual temperature between 52 and GO degrees Fahrenheit, an aggregate of 5,850,000. The zone between 48 and 52 degrees is a narrow belt, the middle line of which passes through Astrachan, Odessa, Vienna, near Paris, through London, Liverpool, Dublin, New York. Toledo, near the south end of Lake Michigan, Omaha, on the Missouri, and bearing south in the elevated plateau of the continent, thence takes a north-west direction to the Pacific, at the south end of Van Couver Island. This zone is much wider in central and western Europe, and on the Pacific coast, than elsewhere. Its course through Asia, is nearly on the line of latitude of Pekin, and is not wide. The cities of the warm zone are making a slower growth than those of the coldest zone; but those in the middle temperate zone are growing much faster than either of the others. For example: London is put down at 2,357,705, and now contains over 3,000,000. Paris is set down at 1,153,202, whereas a recent enumeration gives it over 2,100,000. Chicago is set down at 100,000, and now has twice that number. New York and Brooklyn are set down together at 835,000, whereas they number at least 1,250,000. Other cities in this list have shown a similar growth. It will not be an over-estimate of this favorite city belt to set down its present city population at 12,000,000. This is greater than the city population of all the rest of the world, thus : In the Torrid Zone 2,445,000 In tne Warm Zone , 2,819,418 In the Cold Zone _ 5,850,000 11,124,418 Growth s'nee 18G0, estimated 500,000 11,624,418 The current of population follows, nearly, lines of equal temperature, with a tendency to move from excesses of heat and cold toward the zone of 50 degrees Fahrenheit, mean annual temperature. This zone, according to Disturnell, has a mean width of less than two hundred miles. The north boundary-line of this zone passes through or near the following cities : Albany, Buffalo, Detroit, Racine, Sioux City, Fort Hall, Princess Royal Island, and through the middle of Queen Charlotte's Island of the Pacific. The south boundary-line, in North America, passes through or near the following places: Philadelphia; Columbus, Ohio; Springfield, Illinois; St. Joseph, Missouri : Santa Fee, Great Salt Lake, Dallas, Astoria. In Europe, its north line passes westward, a little north of the Sea of Asof, through the cities of Posen, Berlin, Hamburg, Newcastle, Glasgow, and Belfast. Its south line passes at the outlet of the Sea of Asof, near Buda, Munich, Orleans, and Cape Clear. I give below figures made up from the U. S. census of 1800, exhibiting the operation of the power of climate on city growth, within the belt embraced within the iso-therm of 48 and 52 degrees Fahrenheit. This zone, varying in width from 120 to 200 miles, embraces but a small portion of our country, but it concentrates within its limits a much greater city population than all the broad expanse on both sides of it. ) Within the belt 4,312 700 Population in I860, - ) Out of the belt 1,901,729 Within the favorite climate the cities have grown, since 1800, probably not less than 00 per cent. At this rate their present population amounts to 0,000,184. At the rate of growth, estimated at 30 per cent., the city population, exterior to the favorite belt, has increased to 2,250.247. Dr. Thkmisi.ey's record of the temperature of the city of Toledo, as averaged for seven years, gives a small fraction above 50 degrees Fahrenheit. This accords with Blodgett's climatological table, and is, doubtless, correct. The control of climate on the movement and settlement of civilized man, is a great fact worthy of consideration, and may be of great practical value to persons looking for permanent homes. To live where capital and people can work to greatest advantage is to live in the best place. 28 In Asia, the zone of great cities embraces but a few, of which Ptkin is the only line of great importance. The power of climate to control human movements and habitation, and concentrate in the region best adapted to the developement of the best energies of man, is manifested more and more as knowledge extends, and the means to remove to such best region, become more and more ample. The tide of human movement is westward. It has oulminated, or is culminating, in Europe, on its extreme western ver^e in the middle climate zone, in the great cities of England and France. New York, Philadelphia, Buffalo, Toledo, Detroit, Chicago, Davenport, St. Joseph and Omaha are on the route of the future movement. The following tables are inserted for their general value, and not because they aro considered germane to this general subject : NEW YORK IN 1834 AND 1867, Thirty-three years. One generation. In 1834, the total valuation of the real and personal property of this city was returned by the assessor at one hundred and eighty-six millions. In 1807, the total valuation of real and personal property was returned at eight hundred and thirty million dollars — $830,594,718. THE POPULATION OF EUROPEAN CITIES. In 18(16, censuses were taken in Great Britain and France, and the reports population of the principal cities ; show the following London 3,037,091 Paris .. 1,825,274 Liverpool 484,337 Glasgow 462,265 Manchester , 358,855 Birmingham 335,798 Lyons 326,954 Dublin 818,437 Marseilles 300.131 Leods 228,187 Sheffield 218,257 Bordeaux.. .;... 104 Edenburg 175 Bristol 163 Lille 154 Toulouse 126 Newcastle-on-Tyne. 122/.! 77 Balford 1 12,904 Nantes 111,056 Hull 105.233 H« men loo,070 ,241 ,126 ,630 ,77* 036 •0-4.6, •*> > c\ . ■ ! OOtBS BPO$. . JSTINE | FLA. ■ U ffl