■J Q __ ___ ^3 £e& tracts for tlir Cmua IN45 THE DECLINING BIRTH-RATE A NEWSHOLME, M.D. Class JW£l±1 BooJc._ji^X Cbfyright N? mioJ COPYRIGHT DEPOSIT. £fow QJrarifi far ilj* ®tm*tf THE DECLINING BIRTH-RATE ITS NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE NEW TRACTS FOR THE TIMES TRACTS PUBLISHED "The Problem of Race-Regeneration." By Dr. Havelock Ellis (Editor, Contemporary Science Series, etc.) "The Methods of Race-Regeneration." By C. W. Saleeby, M.D., F.R.S.E., F.Z.S. (Author of "Parenthood and Race Culture," etc.) "The Declining Birth-Rate — Its National and Inter- n ational Significance." By A. Newsholme, M.D. (Principal Medical Officer, Local Gov- ernment Board). TRACTS IN PREPARATION " Literature— The Word of Life or of Death." By Rev. William Canon Barry, D.D. " Modern Industrialism and Race-Regeneration." By C. F. G. Masterman, M.A., M.P. "The Problems of Sex." By Prof. J. A. Thomson and Prof. P. Geddes. "Religion and Race-Regeneration." By Rev. F. B. Meyer, D.D. "Social Environment and Moral Progress." By A. Russel Wallace, O.M., F.R.S., LL.D. " National Ideals and Race-Regeneration." By Rev. R. F. Horton, M.A., D.D. "The Spiritual Life and Race-Regeneration." By the Bishop of Durham. "Womanhood and Race-Regeneration. " By Mary Scharlieb, M.D., M.S. " Education and Race-Regeneration." By Sir John Gorst, LL.D., K.C., F.R.S. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED N*m ©rartu for tij* ©intra THE DECLINING BIRTH-RATE: ITS NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE BY ARTHUR NEWSHOLME, M.D., F.R.C.P. Principal Medical Officer of the Local Government Board. Author of " Elements of Vital Statistics." NEW YORK MOFFAT, YARD & COMPANY 1911 m* *©) tf\ x Copyright, 1911, Bt MOFFAT, YARD & COiMPANY New York All Rights Reserved ©CU30530 rz CONTENTS CHAPTER PAGE I A REVIEW OF RATES OF NATURAL IN- CREASE OF POPULATIONS 7 II MEASUREMENT OF FACTORS IN DECLINE OF BIRTH-RATE 16 III COMPARISONS OF BIRTH-RATES IN DIF- FERENT COUNTIES AND TOWNS . . 24 IV CAUSATION OF THE REDUCED BIRTH-RATE 29 V INDIRECT FACTORS OF THE REDUCED BIRTH-RATE 36 VI POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF ALTERED DISTRI- BUTION OF FERTILITY 42 VII NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL FORE- CASTS 53 VIII SOME POSSIBILITIES OF ACTION .... 58 GENERAL INTRODUCTION By the Eev. James Marchant These Tracts might have been called "New Tracts for New Times," since they interpret the signs and prophecies of a new world in the making, demanding the application of loftier ideals, more widely embracing principles, and surer methods of advance than have hitherto prevailed. They do not merely deplore and combat the manifest evils of the past and the present changing conditions, but reveal the foundations of a richer civilisation. The era of destructive criticism, of improving material environment alone, of lavish care for a short season of the unfit merely to turn them adrift at the critical age, of reliance upon forms and drugs, hospitals and penitentiaries, police and prisons and upon unfettered liberty to correct its own abuses, is mercifully passing away. We are living in a transi- tion period, but nearer the future than the past. The wonderful nineteenth century seems already to have be- come history, and the first decade of the twentieth cen- tury has closed. The new spirit of the age, which ap- peared in wondrous guise on the horizon at the watch of the centuries, is becoming articulate. It is evident to all who possess the historic vision that we are living in the twilight before the dawn. The rapid, ruthless New Tracts for the Times progress and verily bewildering discoveries and devel- opments of the latter half of the nineteenth century, the opening up of virgin fields of reform and of untrod- den and unsuspected paths of advance, were heralds of a new day, of the nearness of the Kingdom of God. These Tracts, small in bulk, but written by eminent authors, deal with these profound and commanding themes from this inspiring outlook. If they revert to outstanding present-day evils, it is because these men- ace the future and are a crime against posterity. Ac- count is taken of the persistent and ominous demand for the divorce of religion from morals and education; of the lowering of the ideal of marriage and the sub- stitution of a temporary contract for that permanent union which is necessary, to take no higher ground, for the nurture and education of the next generation; of the commercial employment of married women, re- sulting, to a serious extent, in the neglect and dis- ruption of family life and the displacement and unem- ployment of men; and of the economic, social, and sel- fish influences which involve late marriages and an ever- falling birth-rate. The writers consider the grave and urgent questions of the wastage of child-life ; the weak- ening and pollution of the link between the generations ; and the uncontrolled multiplication of the degenerate, who threaten to swamp in a few generations the purer elements of our race. They examine the disquieting signs of physical deterioration; the prevalence of vice, the increase of insanity and feeble-mindedness, and their exhaustless drain upon free-flowing charity and General Introduction the national purse; the wide circulation of debasing books and papers which imply the existence, to a de- plorable extent, of low ideals amongst a multitude of readers; and some of the manifold evils of our indus- trial system which cause the hideous congestion of slum- dom with its irreparable loss of the finer sensibilities, of beauty, sweetness and light. These and like griev- ous ills of the social body are treated in the "New Tracts for the Times," from the moral and spiritual standpoint, by constructive methods of redemption, with the knowledge of our corporate responsibility and in re- lation to their bearing on the future of the race. The supreme and dominant conception running through these Tracts is the Regeneration of the Race. They strike not the leaden note of despair, but the ringing tones of a new and certain hope. The regen- erated race is coming to birth; the larger and nobler civilisation is upon us. It is already seen that it is criminal to live at the expense of the future, that chil- dren must be wisely and diligently educated for parent- hood, that vice must be sapped at its foundations, that it is much more radically necessary to improve the con- dition of the race through parentage than through change of environment, that the emphasis must shift from rescue to prevention. These Tracts turn the searchlight of the twentieth century upon such problems and seek to hasten the time when true religion will oc- cupy its rightful place in our human lives, and woman her true place in the home and society, and industry will not deaden and demoralise, and life will be happier, New Tracts for the Times sweeter and holier for every man, woman and child. These Tracts must awaken a sensitive, enlightened social conscience throughout Great and Greater Britain, which is being welded into a more compact Empire, and give voice and new life to the long-silent and thwarted aspirations for a regenerated humanity. In their several ways, the authors of these "New Tracts for the Times," each being alone responsible for his or her own contribution, adopt this bracing and hopeful attitude towards the transcendent prob- lems which it is the object of the promoters to eluci- date. J. M. National Council of Public Morals, Holborn Ball, London, W. C. September, 1911. The Declining Birth-Rate: ITS NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE CHAPTER I A REVIEW OF RATES OF NATURAL INCREASE OF POPULA- LATIONS The birth-rate of a population is usually stated in terms of the total population. This is the best method of statement, if we are concerned only with registering the actual annual contribution of the population to the next generation. By substracting from the birth-rate thus calculated the death-rate in the same population similarly calculated, we can ascertain the annual rate, if any, at which the population is increasing by excess of births over deaths, i.e. by natural increase. NATURAL INCREASE OF POPULATION It is convenient to state here certain international facts as to the annual rate of natural increase in some of the countries, which possess a sufficiently accurate system of registration of births and deaths to enable this to be given. The rates are taken from the Annual Report of the Registrar-General of Births, Deaths and Marriages in England and Wales, 1909 : — 7 The Declining Birth-Rate © 1 ~3 OS r-l 1 CO GO OS «* 1— 1 1 OHN I— 1 r-H r-H CO I© r-» Tf rf* CO CO I n n co eo d © 6 1 ,_, rH r-t rH rH CO 8 H id 1 CO 1>^ CO r-H 1 Tjj co q H 1(5 Tjl CO r-H rH q t-- co co co co q I OS OS OS i-4 CS 1>- OS «0 q co 1 CO CO CO rH co co 1 Ttj ^ q co co id CO CO CO q co q q »>. q q 1 5D N N ^' rf M d 1 CO CO CO CO CO CO r-l ? © a, V e I 8 £ £1 o 1— 1 ■<* CO CO cs id -* t-. O rH d co co" NKJCCNMNtDtD dididdcocoidr-J 8 1 d CO -r CO CO CO id d CO rH C5 OS O OS r-J q n "* © n » e q t-^i— 5r-ics*codt"-©s" 4 •Is «5 00 CO 50 l.O CO q co id «** CO CO BO -t" CO q q co oi GO CO CO CO CO NNNOOlONN N d 53 © «5 r)I M H cocococococococo Hi 00 1 00 oo »H 8 Co g 11 ll o 00 cq q CO CO 1— 1 !>; t-; i-h d cd ■>*" HOM^Hoqoio d co" t^ id d co" »d co r-l CO r-l rH rH CO co 1 CO TO d w q <* co" id co co CO id CO co q rJH t^ cs OS CO i-i i-( ONOjONNOW d id d d n5 tf' co co C^r-tr-lrlrHrHrHCO 3 0| *? <# <# Sj GO CO co t^ CO CO q CO OMO CO CO CO* co co co NNiftMOOlOON ONoeddw^ cocococococococo H ffl ^ r? . r-; rO . K- . -O ^ 'd g O r2 £ «3 "^ — - _, C C « i/] to N -h ^ C « d ^ Jg * .5 « O^CO OS 3 2-2 o fcO^^ 5 to *© t£t o> 00 o *o ^ Oi 00 o *o ^ o O O O o o O o o o o o 111.5 11.0 11.4 Hungary Austria 9.2 Spain 12.0 15.2 Prussia 11.7 14.4 German Empire 10.7 10.7 Italy MB 13.7 12.0 Scotland Hi 14.1 12.1 England and Wales 10.1 I 10.7 Belgium ■■■■■■■■■22.0 N.S. ■ 15.5 Wales mam 17.3 ■ 15.3 Queensland 15.4 ■I 16.7 I 16.1 N. Zealand 12.3 Victoria 123.8 S. 13.7 Australia 5.9 5.6 Ireland France The Declining Birth-Rate It will be observed that, while the rate at which natural increase occurs depends on the relationship be- tween the birth-rate and the death-rate, in past experi- ence the effect of high or low birth-rates in some in- stances has been more or less counterbalanced by high or low death-rates. Thus Hungary, with the highest birth-rate among the countries enumerated in the table, had in 1881-85 a much lower rate of increase than Australasia; so likewise Prussia during the same pe- riod, with a considerably higher birth-rate, had a mucn lower rate of natural increase than England and Wales. In 1901-05 a general decline of death-rates is seen to have occurred. The decline of the birth-rate may con- ceivably continue until no births occur; death-rates eventually will reach a point beyond which further de- cline is unattainable; and already in 1901-05, although in most countries this point is still remote, there is evidence that the decline in the birth-rate is overtaking the decline in the death-rate, with a resultant decline in the rate of natural increase. In Germany the bal- ance is still to the good, the rate of natural increase be- ing higher in 1901-05 than in 1881-85. In England and in Scotland the scales have already turned, and there is shown a declining rate of natural increase. This must not, of course, be confused with a state of matters in which the birth-rate is as low as the death- rate. France, hitherto, is the only country in which this condition has been almost established. In England and Wales the rate of natural increase was 12.4 per cent, in 1901-11, as compared with 15.1, 14.0, and 12.4 per cent, in the preceding inter-censal periods, and the in- 10 Rates of Natural Increase crease of population by excess of births over deaths in the ten years was 4,049,499 persons. In most of the countries under comparison there is manifested a declining birth-rate. The course of the birth-rate in Great Britain is shown more clearly in Table B below:— TABLE B 1861-65 1866-70 1871-75 1876-80 1881-85 England & Wales Scotland 35.1 35.1 35.3 34.9 35.5 35.0 35.3 34.8 33.5 33.3 1886-90 1891-95 1896- 1900 1901-05 1906-10 England & Wales Scotland 31.4 31.4 30.5 30.5 29.3 30.0 28.2 28.9 26.3 26.7 In England and Wales and in Scotland the maximum birth-rate occurred in the year 1876, and since then a steady and almost uninterrupted decline has occurred in both countries. The case of Ireland needs separate consideration (pp. 20-21). If comparison be confined to years since 1880, the years of maximum and minimum birth-rate for the countries enumerated in Table A are as follows: — 11 The Declining Birth-Rate TABLE C Maximum Minimum Birth-rate. • Birth-rate. England and Wales.. 33.9 in 1881 25.1 in 1910 Scotland 33.7 " 1881 25.2 " 1910 Ireland 24.5 " 1881 22.3 " 1890 New South Wales ... 38.4 " 1884 25.3 " 1903 Queensland 38.1 " 1887 24.6 " 1903 Victoria 33.6 " 1890 24.5 " 1903 New Zealand 37.9 " 1881 25.1 " 1899 Hungary 45.6 " 1884 35.7 " 1905 Austria 38.9 u 1882 33.5 « 1908 Spain 37.1 " 1881 32.6 " 1909 Prussia 37.8 " 1885 31.8 " 1909 German Empire 37.2 " 1884 32.1 " 1908 Italy 39.0 " 1884 31.5 " 1907 Belgium 31.8 " 1881 24.9 " 1908 France 24.9 " 1881 .19.6 " 1909 Exact statistics are not available for the United States of America, but the decline in the birth-rate among its native population is known to be very marked (see also p. 27). Leaving Ireland out of consideration for the mo- ment, it is clear that in Prance a low birth-rate had been attained in 1881, which is only now being ap- proached in Great Britain and in Belgium. The Ger- man Empire, although its birth-rate is also rapidly de- clining, began to experience this decline at a later pe- riod, and is still, in regard to birth-rate, approximately 12 in the position^ wii^^reat Britain occupied in or about the yeaj ^8gL.^ 5fe position differs, hovever, in the important' iesped^tfiat-it has a death-: "ate about 3 per thousand cd o ^© ^o ^o o X 'b W H OO H SO 'co "ax NATURAL J^R^^! & ^ELATIoS g)S::G8i^0N *- CO O O 00 Oi CO o ^ » » o H7 ^ CJ The po pulation of a country is constit uifiil balance oibbgtks gre£> d^atks,, and gf: gngigra emigration^ id ^ther^oSn^ies. 19?e>?offowin D, shows gfe ^u^ie&lgd^r estii§a1$i 3> )@1 certain cc^nt^ie^ ij$ |wcg[r^rvals 5f fejgj'eari., and in 1901 a nd 1911 or in an earlier year - By the o% over Table, ition of o 3 o o O C © o O o o O © © o o o •~5 o © © C< CO Oi -o CO so co Oi C^ SO CO — ca .v> CO hp < s> S ft CD o 1 to 3D U s; CO =P IT 3 ft 3 > CD 3 *— < J 3 r i -4- — 1 £ : l d 2 3i > 3 3 5 3 1 3D -4- J S3 5, ft £3 I 3 u pq Ms The Declining Birth-Rate to ni b aiqi 990 ninths 'Jfq? 1 ^ o o CO Oi Ci OS ni jov9 t rod 6«S&.ir/.j:-!8a ©/SsiS 5 g <:,):, tr+arron si vTirarion b io noi: grtglg bus ^g^grg gig g o o f 9[dnT i [riwofl o i-H 00 O) OJ CO H tD N « m o G4 to nor};; SjjC (g *#!$!!*> '"&f@t®@® S'g as 04 hi ba$ IB9 f&M « alBTi^k^wf $ gijf. °° 2> -: 1R97 '191^9 Ctfi fli 10 IIGj o o o o o o o o o o o o o o w 1-4 o o o o o o o •S #S «\ •* V. «H •% •' f 1 1 pq lrt 00 Ci « 00 O O? IO 00 CQ CO iO H « CS CO ' ' ' 1 *"* O^ 00^ O^ 00^ W H 03^ ^ s 2> ccT CO irT Z> CO so TH HO T-i T-\ T-i 5k © © © o o o i— 1 o o o o co~ oo" © [ 1 CO l-H as o ?H 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 CO w « 1 1 ccf t-T io" ; : -s * • • o • PI . . • a> as o 1 02 -2 s • " PI r^ : B : > c3 1 C! ) ^^•"H Ji S'i g • « PI t > 'g J ' 9 * -t- g < b 3 p- B b p 33^ 24.ri 24.9 ' f i^abw ®8^ fe id 9 ^ "SfelO 'jqIjiY/" f l liO I rlh'nf l-oiOTrinL) 1881 ir<»iTi 34.7 ^39# 25.1 i901 ; wi'"* 2I26 fiI #1 Ireland, it will be seen, had, bo^K^n J1881 'and'inr 1901, a crude birth-rate which wai app^Oximlateiy ) m r low as the abnormally low birth-rat© - ' oi ] France. Buti when correction is made for the facls^st&ftedf inf- i «tHte> following table, a totally different conclusion ^eaii%e drawn as to the relative fertility of th© populations^ of Ireland and France. i C BM^oSodtaq TABLE G- Q fIoiJB3UBO 9f{T England and Wales. Scotland Ireland France 1901 ' m9rj No.per 1,000 of t^al population of >.<■ Females Aged 15-45 250 242 235 227 WivW l Age&W 15-4$ J; 91 od [Jiw Wives aged 15-45 per cent, of all fem&VeVtif \ same age flJS b91JJ99S 117 102 77 119 46.8 32.5 52.5 19 Tfefo£e€ifcingri£re$itolkte -j^e^M-fc^w-oiis^i-m'te^^vslsio^W-i'ii the above table, is due not to the lower fertility of its population, but t o its lower proportion of married women at child- beara$i®3-&g§s. When^awectio a is made for this, the p orrpH-prl hirt.h - rat.fi for 1901 ; showing the true fer- tiliigef :>fi£fce j)opodati)niggii I -eland, becomes 36.1 in- st^ol 1&WP>^EMR qfg&opulation. |B§£-' ' JS£a($liie $®$liolo$$£ue " — On the other hand, Flange is$g$n fto^l^ve pgrj_|,000 of total population a larjggg pr qpggt long gfgwivgs^ aged 15-45 than there are i n England and Waloo; bu t its corrected birth-rate in MK)I>dSBai88flyn^lifeda^bPO m pared with 28.4 for Eng- laaad^I^fe^nWdi^B Uncorrected birth-rate of 21.6 com- ]te®s mM%Tlnf^v©^a^ly still with the corrected rate 9<8?mmenbi?afb£mtj&ie best example of a pathological teifeoidtejni^qttostnse in which the term (" natalite pathologique") is used by Dr. Jacques Bertillon, the head of the Statistical Bureau of the City of Paris. The causation of th is fallen birth-rate, from which it will be reinember^ we have eliminated the influence ^JV^M^5ng«X)poflftions of married women at child- p^ges, failfc be considered in a subsequent para- ^lean^wj^e, additional facts may be given skqwiB^tia^^Erance does not stand alone in having alfadr maHy low birth-rate. Til itions in which child-bearing can occur. m secured an 8.3£ fe^ Und S.SS 5.S5 e 20 Measurement of Factors TABLE H Comparison of Corrected Total Birth-rates, 1881 and 1901 (or Approximate Years) England and Wales. Scotland Ireland New South Wales . Victoria New Zealand Austria Prussia German Empire . . . Italy Belgium France Relative 1881 1901 Birth- Birth- I rate in 1881 stated as 100 34.7 28.4 100 39.3 33.4 100 35.2 36.1 100 38.8 26.5 100 36.0 27.0 100 36.7 29.6 100 39.0 38.5 100 39.9 35.7 100 40.4 35.3 100 36.9 33.7 100 40.8 31.0 100 25.1 21.6 100 Birth- rate in 1901 82 85 103 68 75 81 99 90 87 91 76 86 Ireland alone among the countries enumerated in Table H shows a slightly increased fertility. Its low " crude " birth-rate is entirely explained by the fact that emigration, especially to the United States, has left the motherland with a very small proportion of 21 The Declining Birth-Rate married women of child-bearing ages. Those married women who remain in Ireland are adding to the popu- lation at a much higher rate than the corresponding population in England. There is behind this the fact, suggestive of adverse economic conditions, that in 1901 only 32.5 per cent, of the women in Ireland aged 15-45 were wives, as compared with 46.8 per cent, in England and Wales. It may be hoped that the results of the census of April, 1911, when published, will show an increased proportion of wives among the women at these ages. The decline in birth-rate in the other countries enu- merated in Table H, varies greatly. Thus, in New South "Wales the birth-rate in 1901 was 32 per cent, and in Victoria was 25 per cent, lower than in 1881. In Belgium it was 24 per cent., in New Zealand 19 per cent., in England 18 per cent., and in Scotland 15 per cent, lower than 20 years earlier. In the German Em- pire it was 13 per cent., and in France 14 per cent, lower than at the earlier period. The significance of these percentages differs, for it will be seen that the 14 per cent, reduction in France was on a corrected birth-rate which in 1881 had already fallen to 25.1, while that of the German Empire in the same year was 40.4 per 1,000 of population. I have preferred to utilise corrected birth-rates in the above comparisons, although this, owing to the lack of completely corrected data more recent than those con- tained in the paper already quoted, has necessitated a comparison between birth-rates thirty and ten years ago respectively. A glance at the more recent crude 22 Measurement of Factors birth-rates given in Table A will show, however, that the decline of birth-rate continues, and a study of all the available figures shows that this decline is gradually affecting countries which were outside its range in the earlier years of comparison. CHAPTER III COMPARISONS OF BIRTH-RATES IN DIFFERENT COUNTIES AND TOWNS The following Table, the data for which have been taken from the paper by Dr. Stevenson and the writer, to which reference has already been made, shows the birth-rate in different Counties of England and Wales, after correction has been made for variations in ages and proportion of married women to the total popula- tion in each County : — TABLE I Corrected Birth-rates, 1901 (England and Wales 28.4) England — Bedfordshire 26.1 Dorsetshire 28.1 Berkshire 28.0 Durham 33.0 Buckinghamshire .. 29.8 Essex 28.7 Cambridgeshire .... 28.3 Gloucestershire .... 27.5 Cheshire 28.3 Hampshire 26.1 Cornwall 26.2 Herefordshire 31.2 Cumberland 32.9 Hertfordshire 28.6 Derbyshire 29.2 Huntingdonshire . . 30.1 Devonshire 25.2 Kent 27.0 24 Comparisons of Birth-Rates Lancashire 28.0 Leicestershire 27.1 Lincolnshire 28.0 London 26.8 Middlesex 28.2 Monmouthshire 34.2 Norfolk 28.7 Northamptonshire . . 25.9 Northumberland ... 31.2 Nottinghamshire . . . 30.2 Oxfordshire 28.6 Rutlandshire 27.0 Shropshire 33.2 Somersetshire 27.6 Staffordshire 31.5 Suffolk 29.9 Surrey 26.6 Sussex 25.0 Warwickshire 28.5 Westmorland 28.2 Wiltshire 28.5 Worcestershire 28.4 Yorkshire 27.5 North Riding 31.8 East Riding 28.4 West Riding 26.8 Wales — ■ North Wales 30.9 South Wales (excluding Glamorganshire) 33.5 Glamorganshire 32.1 The highest corrected birth-rates were in the counties of Monmouth and Shropshire, the lowest in Sussex and Devon. A comparison of recent and of past birth-rates can be made embracing some of the chief cities and towns in civilised countries possessed of accurate statistics. In order that some idea may be obtained of the con- tinuance of the decline beyond the period for which corrected rates can be given, crude birth-rates are given for 1881 and 1901 and for 1910:— 25 The Declining Birth-Rate TABLE J Comparison of Corrected Birth-rates in 1881 and 1901, and of Crude Birth-rates in those years and in 1910. London Manchester Liverpool Birmingham Edinburgh Glasgow Dublin Belfast Berlin Hamburg Paris Providence, U. S. A.*. Crude Birth-rates 1881 1901 1910 34.7 36.9 37.6 37.2 32.0 37.3 32.1 33.4 38.1 37.4 27.6 26.5 28.5 32.1 33.4 31.8 35.1 31.9 31.5 32.2 24.8 26.9 20.6 26.0 25.5 27.4 31.1 28.5 19.6 25.1 28.3 27.8 21.5 23.2 18.0 Corrected Birth-rates 1881 1901 32.2 32.9 32.5 34.2 35.0 36.3 32.2 34.7 33.1 35.0 23.3 21.1 26.8 29.2 30.8 28.6 28.1 32.0 35.4 34.0 21.9 25.4 16.7 23.1 * Comparison of 1875 and 1900. It will be more convenient to discuss certain aspects of the above city birth-rates at a later stage. It suffices here to draw attention to the remarkable experiences of Britain, Hamburg, and Providence, Bhode Island. The two great cities of Germany are seen to be rapidly following in the footsteps of Paris in reduction of fer- tility, and there appears to be much likelihood that ere Comparisons of Birth-Rates long their birth-rates, like that of Paris, will be nearly as low as their death-rates.* It is unfortunate that registration of births is absent or defective in the greater part of the United States. In parts of New England the statistics available enable a comparison to be made between the native-born and foreign-born popu- lations. The following table, taken from the joint paper already quoted, shows some of the results: — TABLE K Corrected Legitimate Birth-rates Boston, 1900 Providence, 1900 Native-born 18.2 16.0 Foreign-born 31.1 31.1 Evidently the fertility of the native-born populations of these cities is little, if any, greater than that of Paris ; and they may be said, like Paris, to have arrived at a position of stagnation of population, if not of ac- tual decrease, apart from immigration. In the preceding summary of well-ascertained facts as to the birth-rate in this and other countries, an en- deavour has been made to handle the available material methodically, and to lift the explanation or explana- tions of the decline in birth-rate which has been already experienced out of the region of conjecture and im- pression. * In the five years 1906-10 the average birth-rate of Paris was 18.3, the corresponding death-rate 17.5 per 1,000 of popu- lation. 27 The Declining Birth-Rate As the proportion of illegitimate births is small, fer- tility is chiefly a function of married life. Malthus, in 1796, advocated postponement of, or abstinence from, marriage as a means of checking the risks involved in the alleged tendency of population to multiply more rapidly than the means of subsistence. The rate at which the population multiplies by excess of births over deaths is now steadily slackening, although, as shown in the previous pages, this is not to any con- siderable extent due to diminished or postponed matri- mony. It must, therefore, be caused by diminution in the fertility of married life, and, it may be added, to a less extent, by diminution of illegitimate births. By means of the corrected birth-rates given in the previous pages, differences in various communities caused by varying proportions of wives at child-bearing ages have been eliminated; and it has been shown that in most civilised communities there has occurred a real and marked reduction in the fertility of marriage. 28 CHAPTEE IV CAUSATION OP THE REDUCED BIRTH-RATE We may now pursue our review of the historical facts as to the fertility, having removed from the statistics the disturbing influence of variations in ages and in proportion of married women of child-bearing ages to the total population. The reason for making this preliminary correction will not be misunderstood. Postponement of marriage and avoidance of marriage, when they occur on a large scale, are serious sociological indications. It is con- ceivable that the size of families of married persons might be kept up to the high figures of 1880 and there- abouts, and yet that marriage might become so unpopu- lar — or be regarded as so economically disadvantageous — that the birth-rate declined rapidly, because compara- tively few persons married. But that is not the his- torical state of matters with which we have to deal. Postponement and avoidance of marriage have had little share in causing the reduced birth-rate experienced in this and some other countries during the last twenty years. There has been a great decline of fertility when women of equal age and marital condition in a coun- try are compared with the women of the same country twenty years earlier. It is possible, however, that in the future the present smaller families in married life may be followed by re- 29 The Declining Birth-Rate volt against the marriage tie among a larger propor- tion of the total population, though it is beyond the scope of this paper to do more than note this tendency. It being established that for equal numbers of mar- ried women of child-bearing ages, the number of chil- dren in various countries and in many parts of the United Kingdom is much fewer than in the past, it remains to be seen whether any recognisable direct in- fluence has been at work, which has tended to lower the birth-rate; and what are the indirect influences, which may be considered as having affected the birth- rate, such as economic and social conditions, habits of life, and possibly education and occupation. THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASED NUTRITION It is a commonplace observation that children are often fewer in well-to-do than in poorly-circumstanced families. The poor curate and the labourer alike are examples quoted in this connection, in contrast with those endowed with wealth. Few systematic attempts have been made to place observations of this kind on a firm basis, and although it is possible that over-nutri- tion may lessen fertility, it is incredible that a condi- tion of increased nutrition can have become so widely prevalent as to be competent to produce the national and international changes in fertility set out in pre- ceding pages. The exact extent to which the so-called "True Law of Population," enunciated in Doubleday's book, pub- lished in 1841, under this title, operates must be still 30 Causes of Reduction a matter of conjecture. It is extremely unlikely that his statement to the effect that throughout both the animal and vegetable kingdoms "Over-feeding checks increase; whilst, on the other hand, a limited or deficient nutriment stimulates and adds to it" is anything more than a fragment of truth. So far as the vegetable kingdom is concerned, it is, within certain limits, contrary to experience, carefully tested experi- mentally. No such self-rectifying arrangement as this can be regarded as possible under present conditions, if under any conditions, of human society; and it is doubtful whether there is lower fertility among the rich, when not voluntarily produced; and still more doubtful that this, if present, can be ascribed to high nutrition. That Doubleday's hypothesis does not explain recent events in the countries enumerated in Table H is evident from a study of the international facts. It is highly improbable, for instance, that the average nutrition of French wives is so much higher than that of Irish wives as to account for a difference in corrected birth-rates of 21.6 and 36.1 per 1,000 of population; or to account for a difference between 28.4 and 35.7 in England and in Prussia respectively. The hypothesis similarly fails to explain the difference between the birth-rate in the cities and towns enumerated in Table I, and between these and the •birth-rates of the countries in which they are respectively situate. 31 The Declining Birth-Rate INVERSE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INDIVIDUATION AND "GENESIS" Doubleday's incomplete hypothesis was criticised by Herbert Spencer * in the 'fifties. The complete truth according to him is that, as a necessity of evolution, fertility diminishes with that intellectual and moral development of the race which is comprised within the meaning of the word civilisation. Darwin similarly concluded that changed conditions of life have a re- markable and specific power of acting repressively on the reproductive system. It is however, doubtful, if, on a general scale, any inverse relationship whatever exists between cerebral development and the capacity of men and women to procreate. In sample experiences derived from Peerage and Baronetage lists, a reduction of families is shown in recent periods. Whethamf gives the results of a hun- dred fertile marriages for each decade from 1831 to 1890, taken consecutively from those families who have held their title to nobility for at least two preceding generations : — Period. "No. of births to each fertile couple. 1831—40 7.1 1841—60 about 6.1 1871—80 4.4 1881—90 , 3.1 * "A Theory of Population deduced from the General Law of Animal Fertility," by Herbert Spencer, 1852. t"The Family and the Nation," by W. C. D. and C. D. Whetham, 1909, p. 139. Causes of Reduction Thus during fifty years a stable upper class have re- duced their fertility by more than one-half. It can scarcely be argued reasonably that the state of nutri- tion or the intellectual capacity of parents so circum- stanced had so increased as to account for this result. After the data of the census of April, 1911, have be- come available, this question can be discussed with profit, because of the new inquiries which have been made as to fertility in different social strata, the re- sults of which will then be available. Meanwhile all the facts point to the conclusion that VOLITIONAL LIMITATION OF THE FAMILY is the chief and vastly predominant cause of the de- cline in the birth-rate which is taking place in so many countries. At a later stage the economic and other indirect causes which may have led to this voluntary restraint of fertility, and the possible effect of its differential operation on our national position will be considered. Meanwhile, it is necessary to establish the probability that the predominant cause of the decline in the birth- rate is volitional. That the practices thus indicated are widely prev- alent is well known. The extent to which this is the case can only be realised by those who have made in- quiries into the subject. The advertisement pages of daily and weekly newspapers give some enlightenment; and the testimony of experienced medical men shows 33 The Declining Birth-Rate how widespread is the use of artificial means for the prevention of conception. There are reasons for think- ing that the practice of producing abortion by the use of drugs or otherwise may also be increasing. In The Times, of October 16th, 1906, Mr. Sidney Webb gave the result of a voluntary confidential cen- sus among a class of " intellectuals," from which it appeared that of 120 marriages, 107 were " limited " and 13 "unlimited," the average number of children of each of these marriages being considerably under two. This is the only direct statistical evidence, so far as I know, on the subject. Mr. Webb also quoted (The Times, October 11th, 1906) the experience of the Hearts of Oak Friendly Society, which gives a "lying-in benefit" of 30s. for each confinement of a member's wife. From 1866 to 1880 the proportion of lying-in claims rose slowly from 217 to 247 per 1,000; and then continuously declined from 1881 to 1904, when it reached only 117 per 1,000 members. Even if large allowance be made for sources of statistical error, it is highly probable that in the family experience of this particular Friendly Society— which has over 272,000 adult male members — there has been a large decline in fertility. A similar change is seen in the experience of the Peerage quoted above. It is also seen in the experience of various countries and towns, as stated in preceding tables. This decline in the birth-rate might be due either to an increased number of sterile marriages or to smaller families. At present there are no English data en- 34 Causes of Reduction abling a distinction to be made between these two pos- sible causes of a low birth-rate; but French, Danish, Swedish, Australian and other statistics agree in show- ing that it is the latter with which we are chiefly, if not solely, concerned. If there were any widespread diminution of procreative power, an increased propor- tion of sterile marriages might reasonably be expected; and the fact that this has not occurred at once raises a presumption — confirmed by all the available facts — • that the fall in the birth-rate is principally due to causes within the control of the people. The same conclusion is confirmed by the fact that in countries under the influence of the Roman Catholic religion, which banns preventive measures against child-bearing, as in Ireland, and among the French Canadians, the corrected birth- rate remains high. 35 CHAPTER V INDIRECT FACTORS OP THE REDUCED BIRTH-RATE There is no reasonable doubt that the decline in the birth-rate, which is one of the most striking features of the last thirty years,* has been principally caused by volitional regulation of the size of the family. What are the influences which have led parents to regu- late the size of their families to an extent which has produced enormous declines in national birth-rates? The facts enable us to eliminate race and most social conditions except religion as having had more than an auxiliary influence in bringing about the effect under consideration ; and the influence of religion when mani- fested appears to have been exercised by inhibiting any action interfering with normal fertility. Poverty. — The influence of poverty is somewhat more difficult to unravel. The possible effect of poverty in keeping down excessive nutrition and in thus enabling the supposed inverse relationship between "individua- tion " and " genesis " to operate has already been dis- cussed. It is impossible to ascribe to any such influ- ence a large share in the enormous changes of fertility manifested during the last thirty years. * In England as a whole the birth-rate began to decline in 1876, but in different parts of the country earlier or later than that year. Germany's decline began many years after that of England, while the decline in France dates back for a long series of years. Indirect Factors Industrial Conditions. — But if the generally higher standard of comfort now prevailing among the indus- trial classes has had no considerable effect in reducing fertility by physiological means, it may be that changes in economic condition, when combined with a more gen- erally disseminated knowledge of artificial means for limiting the family, have led to effective efforts in this direction ; while similar economic changes may not have had the same effect in earlier years, owing to the ab- sence of available information on the subject or the presence of a different standard of conduct, or owing to both of these causes. Knowledge as to artificial means for limiting the family has become widespread during the period in which the reduction of birth-rate in Great Britain has occurred. During the latter part of that period certain industrial and economic influences have been acting which might increase the wish to utilise the new knowl- edge. Among these, mention may be made of the re- lation between the fall in prices and in the birth-rate on which stress is laid by Mr. Udny Yule.* He draws attention also to the fact that the fall in the fertility rate was greater during 1891-1901 than for any previous dec- ade, and that this does not correspond with the course of prices; and suggests as a contributory cause the in- creasing pressure on the labour market. In the years before 1876 there had been a very high birth-rate; from thence onwards a rapid fall in the death-rate occurred, thus greatly increasing the supply of adults provided * " Journal Roy. Statistl. Soc." Vol. lxix., Pt. i., March, 1906. 37 The Declining Birth-Rate by a given birth-rate. The increase at ages 20-55 of males in the population in successive decades is given by Mr. Yule as follows : — Increase in Each Decennium in the Number of Males aged 20-55 Per. Cent. Increase in 1851-61 10 " " 1861-71 : 12 " " 1871-81 14 " " 1881-91 14 " " 1891-1901 19 It has to be remembered in drawing inferences from the above figures that by the method adopted in pre- ceding tables the effect on the birth-rate of postpone- ment of, or abstinence from, marriage has been elimi- nated, and that what remains to be explained is the diminished fertility of married life at the ages of fer- tility. Hence, any effect which industrial pressure has produced on fertility will have been produced apart from involuntary physiological causes and most prob- ably through volitional control. Similar remarks apply to the special experience of textile towns like Huddersfield, Oldham, Bradford, Blackburn, Burnley, and Halifax, in which, between 1881 and 1903, the corrected birth-rate declined 22, 24, 2d, 32, 32, and 32 per cent, respectively. In the earlier years of these industries each child was his parents' savings-bank, from which savings could be drawn as soon as the child could go to the mill as a 38 Indirect Factors half-timer. Now the age at which the child's immature strength can be exploited has been retarded, and the child is a less profitable asset than in the past. The fact that families have become smaller in association with this retardation of children's work, and in associa- tion with the continuance of married women's work in mills, does not necessarily imply deterioration of the ideal of family life below that of the period of large families. The difference may be merely the difference between ignorance and knowledge of means for limiting the family. THE PROGRESSIVE DESIRES OF MANKIND In very many instances it may be unselfishness — possibly mistaken in its object — which has led to the limitation of the family. The head of the family, earning a limited wage, whose family budget is already scarcely within the parsimonious possibilities of the weekly wage, hesitates — and naturally hesitates — to add to the burden which he and, still more, his already over- burdened wife bear from day to day. And this desire to alleviate the burden of family life may be associated with a very proper desire to raise the standard of family life. The desires of mankind be- come more numerous and varied with each added pos- session. When these desires lead to interference with family life in persons who are able to meet the normal requirements of a normal family, selfishness may be re- garded as having become the chief motive. The in- creasing rarity of the altruism which welcomes the The Declining Birth-Rate burden and joy of family life, in those who are well able to bear it, is one of the most unfavourable features of the present day. The ideal of portions of the com- munity, especially of a large proportion of that part of it which has sufficient or abundant means, is one which is almost pagan in its outlook. Their sense of com- munal responsibility is undeveloped, and their main ob- ject appears to be " to warm both hands before the fire of life," but, as Mr. W. S. Lilly has remarked, with prudence so as not to burn their fingers. Over-prosperity may imply a serious moral danger. While among the artisan classes and among the even harder-pressed lower ranges of the commercial and pro- fessional classes there may be economic reasons tending towards restricted families,* the same excuse cannot be urged for those in easy circumstances. The reduced fertility in the prosperous classes named on page 32, is an instance in point ; and the lowered fertility in Berlin and Hamburg, representing pre-eminently the new Ger- many, prosperous and wealthy, shows that the Germans can no more resist the temptations of prosperity and luxury than ourselves. It would not be fair to omit from consideration what is probably one of the chief factors tending to restrict families. This is the desire of parents with small in- comes to educate their children more satisfactorily than they themselves were educated, and to give their chil- dren the means for rising in the social scale. * I do not say that this is the case, given proper distribu- tion of work and workers, and equitable distribution of the fruits of work. 40 Indirect Factors The motive here is far removed from that of the well- to-do who love ease and luxury and pursue it ; and how- ever much the supposed need for this regulated family may be deprecated in these instances, a harsh judgment in regard to it cannot be entertained. 41 OHAPTEB iVT POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF ALTERED DISTRIBUTION" OF FER- TILITY The contents of the preceding paragraphs naturally lead to a discussion of the influence of the present dis- tribution of the restricted birth-rate on national phy- sique, intellect, and character; after which a wider sur- vey may be taken of the tendencies to stagnation of popu- lation at present manifesting themselves. FERTILITY IN" RELATION TO SOCIAL STATUS Professor Karl Pearson has stated that 25 per cent, of the married population produce 50 per cent, of the next generation; and basing his conclusion on a com- parison between birth-rate and the proportion of (a) female domestic servants, (&) professional men, (c) gen- eral labourers, (d) pawnbrokers and general dealers, in a number of selected districts, Dr. David Heron, in a Drapers' Company Eesearch Memoir, has concluded that the intensity of relationship between undesirable social conditions and a high birth-rate has almost doubled in fifty years. Statistics like the above, and the unequal distribu- tion of the decline in the birth-rate illustrated in the preceding pages, have led Professor Pearson to say that "the mentally better stock in the nation is not repro- ducing itself at the same rate as of old — the less able 42 Possible Effects and the less energetic are the more fertile . . . for the last forty years the intellectual classes of the nation, enervated by wealth or by love of pleasure, or following an erroneous standard of life, have ceased to give in due proportion the men wanted to carry on the ever-growing work of the Empire." It is necessary to remember, however, (1) that the contribution to a future generation is not necessarily directly proportional to the birth-rate, but is governed by the excess of births over deaths before the reproduc- tive period of life; and (2) that special fitness to re- plenish the world is not a monopoly of class, but occurs in stocks which are found in every social stratum. THE VARYING CONTRIBUTION TO THE POPULATION AT CHILD-BEARING AGES FROM A GIVEN NUMBER OF BIRTHS I have shown elsewhere that there is no necessary re- lationship between large families and a high infant mor- tality.* In different counties of England and Wales coincidence of high and low birth-rates with low and high rates of infant mortality are to be found ; and the combined experience of forty-six counties is expressed in the fact that the co-efficient of correlation between their birth-rates and their infant death-rates for 1901-5 was represented by the low fraction .36. The connec- tion often observed between a high birth-rate and a high rate of infant mortality is due in great part to the fact that large families are common among the poorest *" Report on Infant and Child Mortality" (Cd. 5263). 43 The Declining Birth-Rate classes, and these classes are especially exposed to the de- grading influences producing excessive infant mortality. The common association of circumstances of social inferiority with a high birth-rate implies similarly a smaller number of survivors to adult life than under better social conditions. This is illustrated by the fol- lowing examples from local life tables: — Of 1,000 Female Children - born in each District the Number of Survivors at each of the Following Ages svas : — Brighton Hampstead * Shoreditch* Age C1891-1900) | (1901-1905) (1901-1905) 1,000 1,000 1,000 15 763 859 711 25 743 844 689 35 711 821 651 * From Report of the Medical Officer of the County of London for 1907. It is evident that, out of a given number born, the contribution to the future adult population of a borough like Shoreditch, with a high birth-rate, is at a lower rate than that of districts like Hampstead and Brighton, in which the birth-rate is low. It may, however, be accepted as a fact that during re- cent years the population has, owing to the restriction of the birth-rate among other classes, been recruited in a somewhat increasing proportion from the wage-earn- ing classes. The wage-earning classes have always 44 Possible Effects formed a large majority of the total population; and their birth-rate in the future, as in the past, must de- termine the main composition of the people. The wage- earning population is the source, in the main, generation after generation, of the other classes of the community ; and it is well for those other classes that it is so. The mere fact then, that, so far as can be ascertained, these wage-earning classes are contributing an increasing pro- portion to the people, may be regarded with compla- cency, unless it can be shown further that the distri- bution of the birth-rate among wage-earners is unfa- vourable to the handing-on of their best qualities to fu- ture generations. The Table H of the geographical dis- tribution of corrected birth-rates gives some indications on this point. Dr. Heron's statistics, mentioned on p. 42, tend to show, though not conclusively, on a consid- erable scale, that there is an increasing relationship be- tween a high birth-rate and "undesirable social condi- tions." If it be assumed that the careful artisan is beginning to adopt the policy of a restricted family, and that the unskilled labourer is not doing so, certain considerations will need to be borne in mind before re- garding the phenomenon in question with excessive ap- prehension. In the first place, such change in the distribution of the birth-rate as has occurred, has not, so far as we know, been going on for more than two generations, and to change the general character of a population a much longer period than this is required. In the next place, it has to be remembered that the condition of the poorest classes has greatly improved 45 The Declining Birth-Rate as compared with that of two generations ago. In the essentials of life, food, clothing, and housing, the con- ditions of the very poor are equal to those of the artisan early in the nineteenth century. The effect of such con- ditions will depend on the extent to which the poorest classes belong to an inferior type — whose social posi- tion has in the course possibly of generations resulted from their inferiority — and on the extent to which they are remediable by improved environment. This point is discussed later. POVERTY IN CHILDHOOD AND ADULT FITNESS Notwithstanding these considerations, it cannot be regarded as satisfactory that the birth-rate has declined to the greatest extent among those living in comfortable circumstances. In past centuries population was restrained by the positive checks of war, famine and pestilence. These checks, in civilised countries, have now been almost completely averted. Even now, however, direct checks on survival to adult life are acting, though to a greatly diminished extent. Among the chief of these are in- sufficient care in sickness, and defective nutrition of children. The effect of poverty can be seen in the fact that the rate of natural increase of the population (by excess of births over deaths) is not so much higher among the poor than among the well-to-do as it would be were the death-rates equal in the two classes. This higher death-rate among the poor undoubtedly implies also some physical inferiority of those who escape the risk of death. 46 Possible Effects The physical condition of the survivors to adult life under conditions of poverty is less satisfactory than that of survivors in populations of superior social posi- tion. The report (1882-3) of the Anthropometrical Committee appointed by the British Association in 1875 showed clearly that a difference of 5 inches existed be- tween the average stature of the best and the worst nurtured classes of children of corresponding ages, and of 3J inches in adults. More recent observations among school children show similar differences. It is not improbable that corresponding differences in mental conditions are to be found. These statements, however, do not exhaust the prob- lem. The question remains whether these differences are inherent and more or less irremovable, or are due to unfavourable external conditions of life, and therefore preventible. FITNESS NOT A CLASS CHARACTERISTIC The answer, so far as physical fitness is concerned, may be contained in the anthropological view that there is a certain physical standard which is the inheritance of each race; and that although certain sections of the population may deviate from the average standard, for instance, as the result of the deterioration caused by poverty with its attendant ignorance, squalor and bad feeding, the deviation is not transmitted from genera- tion to generation. As the late Professor D. J. Cun- ningham put it : " To restore, therefore, the classes in which this inferiority exists, to the mean standard of 47 The Declining Birth-Rate national physique, all that is required is to improve the conditions of living, and in one or two generations the ground that has been lost will be recovered." If, then, on this hypothesis it were necessary for the population in the future to be recruited chiefly from the above stratum of society, there is no necessity to fear physical degeneration of the population if steps be taken to counteract the effects of poverty. Given appropriate social organisation, this is practicable. Whether this view represents the whole truth or only a portion of it, it cannot be said that measures for national improvement through influences affecting the environment have been exhausted, or, indeed, have be- gun to be fully utilised. They need to be extended on a large scale, while giving encouragement to measures tending to diminish the multiplication of the admittedly unfit. The time spent in bemoaning the disproportion- ate contribution to the population of the very poor, were better spent in promoting the more efficient prevention of destitution, while preventing the multiplication of the small minority having definitely heritable defects (see p. 51), and of those who will not or cannot support themselves and their families, and will not or cannot co-operate with the State in providing by insurance or otherwise for the days when unemployment or sickness renders self-support precarious. The question of intellectual fitness is more difficult. Much evidence has been adduced tending to the con- clusion that certain social strata manifest a much higher proportion of intellectual ability than others. The 48 Possible Effects statement — given that success in life is a satisfactory- test — is beyond dispute. But the interpretation of the facts is open to doubt. The fact that the children of the successful emerge above a given datum line, taken as the line of success, may be regarded as being due to inherent family qualities. It is also open to the ex- planation that the continued family success may be due, in at least a high proportion of the total cases, to the favourable environment of the children of the able, to their possession of all the means of training for success, and to the opportunities and advantages secured by a public school and University career, as well as by the successful position of the father. There are doubtless families of exceptional ability, for whom the occurrence of an auxiliary favourable en- vironment is a matter of minor importance. But even the greatest ability may fail through lack of favouring circumstances; and it is impossible to say how many mute inglorious Miltons may have failed to be discov- ered. The fact that the poorest are lowest in the social scale cannot be used as a completely satisfactory argu- ment that — as proved by selection — they are the poorest stock. The results, so far as they are concerned, may have been biased by conditions that have thwarted nat- ural competence. Obviously the word " success " in this connection is used in an artificial sense. Success in a better sense comes to the majority of the total popu- lation in opportunity and ability to exercise craftsman- ship, intelligence and moral worth. No statistics free from the errors due to varying 49 The Declining Birth-Rate circumstances appear to be possible as to the relative ability of different classes. The history of the many who, notwithstanding social disadvantages, have at- tained to the highest positions in law, medicine, the Church, or in other branches of the work of the State, shows the need for caution in drawing conclusions as to the social distribution of ability. The only state- ment that is certainly true is that both intellectual and physical fitness are a function of stock, not of class. Summarising the preceding facts, it may be accepted that the birth-rate at present is disproportionately high among the wage-earning and probably also among the poorest classes. Also that this implies the survival of a disproportionate number who are relatively ill-fed, ill- nourished, and brought up under conditions rendering them less fitted to become serviceable citizens. But (a) the present altered distribution of the birth-rate is only known to have been occurring for two genera- tions; (&) the conditions of life of the poorest are stead- ily having more attention devoted to them, and there is good reason to expect that in two additional genera- tions their possibilities of health will be still further improved; and (c) it is not certain that the average inherent mental and physical qualities of the majority of the wage-earning classes are not equal to those of the rest of the population, though there may possibly be some meausure of inherent inferiority among a sec- tion of the poorest of the population. 50 Possible Effects THE INHERITANCE OF DEFECTS So far the question has been discussed as one chiefly of inheritance of physical and mental competence. It is, perhaps, more strictly a question of inheritance of defects. Such defects are undoubtedly sometimes he- reditary, and the discouragement of parenthood among the unsound is an important function of public opinion, if not also of the State as such, which has hitherto been much neglected. When such defects as, for instance, feeble-mindedness, or a strong family history of insanity are discovered, it is highly desirable that their propagation to another generation should be prevented.* At every step, accurate conclusions are made difficult by the absence of complete records; but it is doubtful whether such cases as the above form more than a small proportion of the total population of our workhouses or prisons. Striking family histories have been pub- lished, in which related persons have, generation after generation, been supported by the public, either as paupers, or in asylums or prisons. But we do not know to what extent these results would have occurred had the * It should be noted that Dr. W. Bateson, speaking recently on the eugenics of Mendelism, warned his audience of the need for caution in forbidding marriage in any case except where feeble-mindedness or some such defect was so marked as to render the individual certain to produce children of his own type. We may conclude that an indispensable pre- condition of any attempt to apply practically the important principles of eugenics, in regard to any particular disease or defect, must be the collection of evidence on a sufficiently large scale which justifies intervention. 51 The Declining Birth-Rate children been efficiently protected from an obviously evil environment. Pauperism and crime are probably truly hereditary in only a small proportion of their total amount. If this be so, the possibility of their con- trol becomes an easier problem. For the majority it is highly probable that if the community gives the chil- dren a fair chance of success, in the reasonable belief that the expense will not be a recurring expense, this expenditure will be more than justified by results. 52 CHAPTER VII NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL FORECASTS Will the Restricted Birth-Rate Become General? Assuming, as is likely, that the conditions of the poor and the opportunities of success for their children will steadily improve, the jeremiads of those who deplore the evil possibilities involved in the differential deduc- tion of the birth-rate are not likely to be justified. Within two generations of the profoundly important changes which have produced this differentiation, it is too early to indulge in pessimism, even were the vast assumptions involved in such pessimism to be estab- lished. A reduction of human fertility has taken place in this country implying a reduction in the crude birth- rate of England and Wales of over 28 per cent, between 1877 and 1909. Will the proportion of the population hitherto unaffected by this influence continue to escape ? Is it not more reasonable to assume that knowledge in their case will be followed by action, as it has been al- ready among the artisans of Halifax, Burnley, Bradford, Leicester, Derby and Northampton, and to a less ex- tent in many other towns? It is easy to assert that among the poorest there is no stimulus to the " providence " which shows itself in small families. Their infants may be fed from a mu- nicipal milk-depot, and subsequently receive free din- 53 The Declining Birth-Rate ners as well as free schooling, and he helped at every stage. Would that this were more generally true, un- til labour is more systematically decasualised, and a more effective control is exercised over self-indulgent parents who neglect their children. But, under present circumstances, experience among the poor shows what an enduring self-denial, often to an heroic extent, the life of the mother of a large family of small children in a poor home implies. It has many compensations; it can bring out the noblest qualities, both in mother and in children. But it is highly improbable that the younger married woman of the class to which the mother thus sorely tried belongs will, with increasing knowledge, refrain from following the example of the married wo- man who — without the excuse or justification which the heavily taxed mother in a poor family may claim — has chosen the path of self-indulgence. We may then, I think, in the absence of new and at present invisible influences to the contrary, look for an extension of the practice of voluntary restriction of families, and possibly also to a relatively stagnant popu- lation like that of France. INTERNATIONAL CONSEQUENCES OF A RESTRICTED BIRTH- RATE It cannot be regarded as a matter of indifference whether the unfilled portions of the world shall be peopled by Eastern races (Chinese, Japanese, Hindoos, etc.), by negroes, by Sclavonic or other Eastern Euro- pean peoples, by the Latin races, or by the races of 54 Forecasts Northern Europe. Experiments on a gigantic scale in the fusion and multiplication of races are going on in the United States, and more recently in Canada, in which all well-wishers of the best civilisation must be intensely interested; and the problems of South Africa and Australasia are only less important than those of the American continent. The conditions of the prob- lem, especially in view of the increasing refusal of western Europeans, Americans and Australians to multi- ply to a normal extent, are becoming artificially biased. In North America it may be a question not only of black and white, but also of Sclavonic races against Anglo-Saxons; in Australia, and possibly also in the American continent, it may become a question of Mon- golian against European races. The problems suggested by current events do not appear likely, so far as can be seen, to be solved in the course of the next few genera- tions by the adoption of the policy of the restricted family by the countries and races not at present adopt- ing the practices leading to this result ; though the cur- rent experience of Germany, which is now increasingly following the lead of France and England in this re- spect, makes the need for caution in forecasting obvious. It is impossible to follow further the speculations suggested by such considerations as the above. Every Briton will wish that his race may have a preponderant share in shaping the future destinies of mankind. Al- though it appears certain that English-speaking races will exercise this predominating influence — the course of events in North America, in Australasia and South 55 The Declining Birth-Rate Africa, points to this conclusion — these English-speak- ing countries, unless the trend of events is changed, will become occupied by Anglo-Saxons to a relatively dimin- ishing extent. We must not, however, blind ourselves to the dangers of prophecy. UNCONFIRMED FORECASTS History is studded with forecasts which events have falsified, of fears and pleasurable anticipations which have not come true. The population question, in particular, is one in which thoughtful men have alternatively been racked by fears of depopulation or, at least, stagnation of population and of the excessive growth of population. Until the end of the Napoleonic wars, the most prevalent fear was that men would fail for fighting and oak would fail for the building of ships of war. Nelson particu- larly commended the planters of oak trees, as did Na- poleon the parents of large families. There were not wanting those who defended the old Poor Law, because it enabled the labourer to marry early and breed quickly. On the contrary, when the fears raised by Malthus led would-be benefactors of the species to urge upon the labourers to make pause in increasing the supply of labourers, Carlyle derided the possibility of this con- tingency in the following words: — " Millenniums are undoubtedly coming, must come one way or the other: but will it be, think you, by twenty millions of working people simulta- 56 Forecasts neously striking work in that department; pass- ing, in universal trades-union, a resolution not to beget any more till the labour market become satisfactory ? " And yet artisans have begun, in many towns partially, to make pause in the direction indicated in the above quotation; and labourers may hereafter follow this ex- ample. The first half of the nineteenth century was filled with fears of the consequences of the working out of Malthus's hypothesis. From 1890 onwards, our jour- nals have been largely occupied with forecasts based on the decreasing birth-rate. It may be that unforeseen changes in the trend of events will occur; that, for in- stance, as difficulty in securing workers increases, the increased economic prospects of children will once more tend to be followed by large families. But in regard to this, it has to be borne in mind that a new factor, the association of marriage with volitional control of fertility, has entered into the problem; and it appears more likely, under present ethical conditions, that per- sonal comfort will carry more weight than roseate pros- pects for prospective children. 57 CHAPTER VIII SOME POSSIBILITIES OP ACTION The objects of this contribution have been to state the problem under consideration, the reduced birth-rate, to trace its causes, and to discuss its possible national and international effects. It would be proper to close with the fulfilment of this task. When it is considered that the matter in question affects a large proportion of the total population of a number of great countries, and that it has been produced — unless the evidence lies — in the main by the volition of the peoples concerned, the in- evitable conclusion appears to be that no change in the distribution of the birth-rate and no increase in its magnitude can be secured except by alteration of the popular will. In regard to the feeble-minded, the intermittently in- sane, and possibly the chronically dependent, it may be hoped that public opinion will ere long demand that these should not be permitted to multiply. It may even be hoped that social pressure will be exercised towards diminishing multiplication in families which are non- supporting. Apart from these immediate exceptions the best dis- tribution of the birth-rate can only be secured by the exercise of public opinion, which has an undoubted effect on individual conduct. Public opinion might possibly operate directly. It is 58 Possibilities of Action more likely to be successful, in the near future, if di- rected towards a change in the luxurious and extravagant habits which are so widespread. In every station of life there is seen a struggle to keep up appearances and a tendency to ape the luxuries of the more wealthy. Preaching and teaching, and still more, the force of example, which would induce the rich to realise that they may be responsible, by their manner of life, for extravagance in others, would be most valuable. Even though it is not likely that we shall see any revival of former sumptuary laws, it may be hoped that a whole- some public opinion will act in the direction of restraint of lavish living, even among those who can afford it. The desire for " society " and pleasure is an important factor in reducing the birth-rate and in spoiling family life. The desire of parents to leave their children well provided for may be more tenderly dealt with, though, given a good start in life, it is doubtful whether in the majority of instances the knowledge that money will subsequently be inherited is not an impediment to suc- cess in life. Perhaps even more important is definite teaching of the privilege of parenthood. There are great possibil- ities of educational work in this direction, and public opinion can exercise an equally important influence. Along with this should be pointed out the undesir- ability of small families, and especially of families in which there is only one child. The "one chick" is apt to be self-conscious and selfish; is often unhappy, 69 The Declining Birth-Rate and the cause of much unhappiness to others through- out his or her life. During recent years proposals have been made in the direction of the endowment of motherhood. That child-bearing among the wage-earning classes may be normal, and that the infant born may have a reasonably good prospect of survival and of healthy life, conditions are needed during the later months of pregnancy, and after the birth of the infant, which often are lacking. The State has made certain efforts in improving matters, by regulating the hours of industrial labour of women, by paying for medical aid during confinement under certain conditions, by forbidding industrial labour for four weeks after confinement, by securing the early noti- fication of births, and the visits of advice of health visi- tors. More recently the State, in the National Insur- ance Bill of 1911, proposes to contribute towards, the maternity expenses of insured women and of the wives of insured men. All this — and, doubtless, other allied and extended proposals, will follow — implies the recog- nition of the State that it is vitally concerned in the conditions under which infants are procreated, born, and reared. I have purposely said little on the ethical aspects of the problem of artificial limitation of families. It does not appear possible for such a policy to be pursued on a large scale without moral loss to the community. That, however, is not my subject. My task is completed now that I have set out, so far as I can, the facts and condi- tions of the problem of population. 60 JAN 8 1912 One copy del. to Cat. Div. JAN 8 1912