TN295 .U4 5SSi .> -f^iXl ^ ,'>rvi">Kf; l.\.> '^^'*'/ '"'*«;•' hS'; {■^■■'i^J^ *vK *-' '•*i'tt^'i >j:V WMi. 1B-»P I / iVi it, I ^ MS \, vV ', <• ■- f-ov^^ /^if^.-. '-^^o^' »*^^ia"- ^o^y :m^n.\ '-^^o^' ». -^.Z .-^K- \.^^ .*^&'- X.^^ -^^ .^^"^. ; .^'-V, f'^rH *6^ 'TVT* /\ >' ..-•. *^- ^oV ^. _ , _ . „ V-^ ^O..*^-*\0^ l^'* > V • **i6 aP . ,_/ **'"** -.•.^-. «. V-^" V ^'^^ -^^ *bv' 4>9^ r. ^^ A^ »>Va' >. .c'?^'* »'^siB^'- ^.c. ^ u ,• -^^ r..^ oV^^^ia'. -^v*^ :;S^^ "-^^o* '"^M": -ov*" :^K^*- -^^o^ r-'^^fea-. '^ov 77* A A^ o. *^-:^- ._o^ ./'^^i-iz^^- ^-^-^ O'*" e'VV*, "* ^^6* ^°v ^^ / -A'- ^^/ :^Mk^ \^^^ -A'* ^^s^^"' '' ^°-'^. 'bV" '>0^ "oV"" -^o^ <^ V •j:^'*. o. 'bV e, vP * <. *^T7 0.-1°^ • ^V V" •i:i^'*. cv .it. «»i,<.v o'«r^:^Pk. '-^^ « -jsim>^\ ^^^-^ .4 ,-lo<. 'bv .HO* . ^^^^ * » • • , ^_> ' • • C»sP ^'^" . 'bV -^o i IC 8946 Bureau of Mines Information Circular/1983 Selected Raw Material Requirements for Japan's Specialty Steel Industry By E. Chin, John C. Wu, L. Nahai, Gordon L. Kinney, and Charles L. Kimbell UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR Information Circular 8946 Selected Raw Material Requirements for Japan's Specialty Steel Industry By E. Chin, John C. Wu, L. Nahai, Gordon L. Kinney, and Charles L. Kimbell UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR James G. Watt, Secretary BUREAU OF MINES Robert C. Horton, Director As the Nation's principal conservation agency, the Department of the Interior has responsibility for most of our nationally owned public lands and natural resources. This includes fostering the wisest use of our land and water re- sources, protecting our fish and wildlife, preserving the environmental and cultural values of our national parks and historical places, and providing for the enjoyment of life through outdoor recreation. The Department assesses our energy and mineral resources and works to assure that their development is in the best interests of all our people. The Department also has a major re- sponsibility for American Indian reservation communities and for people who live in Island TerritOTies under U.S. administration. > C\ .6 \y^ ^ O V)- Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data: Selected raw material requirements for Japan's specialty steel industry. (Information circular ; 8946) Bibliography: p. 34. Supt. of Docs, no.: I 28.27:8946. 1. Steel industry and trade— Japan. 2. Steel industry and trade- United States. 3. Steel alloys— Economic aspects— Japan. 4. Raw materials— Japan. I. Chin, Edmond. II. Series: Information circular (United States. Bureau of Mines) ; 8946. -f^^m^^m 622s [333.8'5l 83-600090 [HD9526.J32] For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office Washington, D.C. 20402 s CONTENTS (^ Page Abs tract 1 i Introduction 2 ^ Overview of the Japanese economy 2 ^Japan's mineral dependency 3 J Status of the Iron and steel Industry 3 Status of the ferroalloy Industry 4 Industry structure 4 Production 6 C^ Trade 6 ^ Supply 6 ^ Consumption 10 \]\ Raw material requirements and supplies 10 Chromium 10 •^ Cobalt 13 Manganese 14 Nickel 18 Tungsten 18 Status of the specialty steel Industry 21 Production 21 Consumption 21 Trade 21 Raw materials policy 24 Measures to assure supply 25 Stockpile programs 25 Chromium 26 Cobalt 27 Manganese 28 Nickel 29 Tungsten 30 Implications of supply Interruption 31 Impact on the Japanese economy 31 Impact on the U.S. economy 32 Conclusions 33 Bibliography 34 TABLES 1. Iron and steel production, 1970-81 4 2. Percentage share of ferroalloy output In 1981, by producer 5 J 3. Ferroalloy production for 1972-81, by type 7 ^4. Ferroalloy trade for 1972-81, by type 8 j 5. Ferroalloy consumption for steel production, 1973-81 11 ^^^ 6. Salient chromium statistics 12 p 7. Salient cobalt statistics 15 ^ 8. Salient manganese statistics 16 9 . Salient nickel statistics 19 10. Salient tungsten statistics 20 Kll. Production of hot-rolled specialty steel, by type 21 12. Production and sales of specialty steel semimanufactures In 1981 22 1^ ^13. Consumption of specialty steel In 1981, by type 22 X^ 14. Japanese exports and U.S. imports of specialty steel, 1973-81 22 15. Export of selected products containing specialty steel 23 16. Gross domestic product in 1980, by Industry 31 17. Employment in 1980, by Industry 31 18. Demand for specialty steel products in 1980, by Industry 32 SELECTED RAW MATERIAL REQUIREMENTS FOR JAPAN'S SPECIALTY STEEL INDUSTRY By E. Chin, ^ John C. Wu, ^ L, Nahai,^ Gordon L, Kinney,^ and Charles L, Kimbell ABSTRACT Although Japan is a major producer of crude steel, it is poor in in- dustrial raw materials. This Bureau of Mines report describes Japan's raw material needs for chromium, cobalt, manganese, nickel, and tungsten to produce ferroalloys and alloy steels. Japanese imports of these ores or metals by quantity and source are given for 1972-81, inclusive, to indicate (1) the changes in the consumption and supply pattern, and (2) the degree of Japan's dependence on foreign sources. This report also describes measures implemented by Japan to reduce the risk. of supply in- terruption, and discusses the possible implications of supply shortages. ^Physical scientist. ^Economist. Division of Foreign Data, Bureau of Mines, Washington, DC. INTRODUCTION Although Japan is poor in industrial raw materials and fuels, it ranks among the top manufacturing countries in the world. Of its metal industries, iron and steel play a crucial role in Japan's economy despite its overwhelming reli- ance on foreign sources of iron ore and coal. In 1982, Japan was the second largest world producer of crude steel. Moreover, downstream production of spe- cialty steel3 is likewise of world sig- nificance. For alloying ingredients, the ferroalloy and specialty steel sectors are similarly dependent on foreign raw materials. Japanese industry is totally dependent on imports for nickel and al- most wholly so for cobalt. In addition, domestic mine production contributes only a modest share of the industrial require- ment for chromium, manganese, and tung- sten. Hence, severe limitations on se- curing raw material supplies of cobalt, chromium, manganese, nickel, and/or tung- sten would affect Japan's industrial pro- duction, and in turn, would affect coun- tries that import a substantial volume of Japanese manufactures containing these metals. The bulk of Japan's ferroalloy supply is consumed in the production of various steel compositions; exports represent on- ly a small percentage of demand. The United States has been the largest market for Japanese ferroalloys, but the share of total U.S. imports, never large, has been dwindling for the past decade. Japan exports a larger quantity of spe- cialty steel, and exports to the United States have accounted for 30% to 40% of U.S. imports. Exports of steel products, on the other hand, make a significant contribution to Japan's overall economy whether in the form of semimanufactures or as an inte- gral component of finished goods. A fairly substantial share of these prod- ucts is exported to the United States, and this constitutes a substantial part of total U.S. imports in these classes. Thus, the impact of any significant shortfall in the supply of cobalt, chro- mium, manganese, nickel, and tungsten would cause Japan to curtail exports of ferroalloys and specialty steel semimanu- factures and to maintain the highest vol- ume of exports of finished goods. Because of its import dependency, the Japanese government and industries have adopted measures to cope with supply in- terruptions. These include diversifica- tion of supply sources and metal stock- piling. This report examines the impact of interruptions of raw material supplies to Japan's specialty steel industry and examines the subsequent impact on the United States. OVERVIEW OF THE JAPANESE ECONOMY Japan's economy ranked third in the world, with a gross national product (GNP) of $1,139.3 billion in 1981 (at Y220.54 = US$1. 00). The GNP nearly dou- bled between 1965 and 1970, doubled ^In U.S. usage, specialty steel gen- erally includes stainless steels, tool steels, high-speed steels, high-tempera- ture alloys, superalloys, and miscellane- ous special-use alloys. The Japanese data cited in this report also include indeterminant types and quantities of carbon alloy steels in the specialty steel classification. bfetween 1970 and 1975, and increased 70% between 1975 and 1981. Major industries are metallurgical and engineering, elec- tric and electronic, textile, and chemi- cal, all of which depend substantially on imported materials — ores and metals. The dependency is particularly great for min- erals and fuels, which provide the basis for a gigantic processing and manufactur- ing industry for the domestic and export markets. Of total 1980 exports of $130.7 billion, 88% was manufactures (including 27% machinery, 23% motor vehicles, and 14% iron and steel). Manufacturing, min- ing, and construction accounted for 35% of employment. For the same period. Im- ports totaled $122.9 billion: 50% fossil fuels, 17% manufactures, 13% foodstuffs, and 8% machinery and equipment. Despite Japan's heavy reliance on fossil fuel imports, the country withstood the shock of substantially higher petroleum prices in 1974 and remained competitive in the world marketplace. This was achieved through monetary and fiscal policies such as curtailment of spending for public works, increased taxes, limits on credit expansion, and labor wage re- straints. The economy also benefited from a sustained market for exports and an increase in labor productivity in the manufacturing sector. The index for la- bor productivity 1975=100 increased from 127 in 1978 to 142 in 1979, and to 160 in 1981. The total labor force grew from 55.3 million in 1978 to 57.1 million in 1981. The unemployment rate decreased from 2.2% in 1978 to 2.0% in 1980, but rose to 2.2% in 1981. The favorable trade balance in 1980 indicates that the second increase in oil prices of 1979 has also been taken in stride by the Japanese economy. Japanese goods and manufactures are expected to remain competitive in world markets and earn for Japan the funds needed for Importing fuels and raw materials, as well as other requirements. JAPAN'S MINERAL DEPENDENCY Japan is dependent on imports of for- eign ores and metals; the value of domes- tic mine output constitutes less than 1% of the GNP. Its self-sufficiency is lim- ited largely to nonme tallies such as aggregates, bromine and iodine; and lime- stone, dolomite, and seawater magnesia. At the other extreme, Japan is 100% de- pendent on foreign sources of bauxite (aluminum), nickel, and titanium, and al- most wholly dependent on foreign sources for chromium, iron, manganese, oil and natural gas, and uranium. Indigenous ores account for about 5% of the refined copper metal production, about 25% of the lead metal, and to about 35% of the zinc metal. In contrast to the very low contribu- tion of domestic mineral production to the GNP, the country's mineral processing and smelting industries account for about 19% of the GNP. In fact, industries that process minerals and produce metals , specifically iron and steel, nonferrous metals , and cement and nitrogenous fer- tilizers, are very large. Peak annual production during the 1970' s includes the following, in million tons: 4 aluminum 1.1, copper 1.0, steel 119, ferroalloys 2.3, lead 0.2, zinc 0.9, and cement 87. With respect to fuels, Japan has had a peak production of 1,700 million 42-gal barrels of petroleum refinery products and 46 million tons of coke from imported and some domestic coal. Securing a stable supply of overseas raw materials (specifically, ores and metals) at reasonable prices from as many different sources as possible has been a critical element of Japan's foreign eco- nomic and commercial policy. The section "Raw Material Policy" includes a brief outline of the measures taken by the gov- ernment to implement the policy. STATUS OF THE IRON AND STEEL INDUSTRY Japan's steel industry paralleled the growth of its economy increasing from a crude steel production level of 4.8 mil- lion tons in 1950, to a peak of 119.3 million tons in 1973 (table 1). With an- ticipated output of 99.5 million tons in 1982, Japan ranked second as a producer of crude steel following the U.S.S.R. ^Throughout this report, "tons" means "metric tons." TABLE 1. - Iron and steel production, 1970-81, million tons Crude Hot-rolled semimanufactures Share of Year Pig iron Ferroalloys steel Specialty steel Other steel Total specialty steel in total, % 1970 68.0 1.7 93.3 7.4 68.6 76.0 9.7 1971 72.7 1.9 88.6 6.9 65.2 72.1 9.6 1972 74.1 1.7 96.9 7.2 74.9 82.1 8.8 1973 90.0 2.0 119.3 9.1 92.6 101.7 8.9 1974 90.4 2.3 117.1 9.3 91.0 100.3 9.3 1975 86.9 2.1 102.3 8.0 77.9 85.9 9.3 1976 86.6 2.0 107.4 9.9 83.2 93.1 10.6 1977 85.9 1.8 102.4 10.3 79.6 89.9 11.5 1978 78.6 1.5 102.1 11.7 79.6 91.3 12.8 1979 83.8 1.9 111.7 12.5 89.1 101.6 12.3 1980 87.0 1.9 111.4 12.9 88.9 101.8 12.7 1981 80.0 1.6 101.7 13.3 79.8 93.1 14.3 During the first modernization program (1951-56) of the iron and steel industry, three integrated steelworks were comr- pleted: Chiba in 1951, Kure in 1952, and Hikari in 1955. Introduction of new technology by the industry included hot- rolled silicon steel sheet, hot strip rolling, continuous galvanizing, electro- lytic tinning, and basic oxygen furnace (BOF) steelmaking. During the second and third modernization programs (1957-61) and (1962-66), five integrated steelworks were inaugurated: Nagoya in 1958, Mizu- shima and Sakal in 1961, and Fukuyama and Kimitsu in 1965. New technology intro- duced during this period included com:- puter control, cold-rolled silicon steel sheet, vacuum degassing, controlled- pressure rolling, continuous casting, di- rect reduction, and blast furnace high- top-pressure operation. During 1967-68, construction of the Kashima, Keihln, Kakogawa integrated steelworks were com^ pleted, in that order. Japan's newest integrated steelworks is the Oita Works of Nippon Steel Corp. , which was complet- ed in 1971. Plant operation is complete- ly computer controlled, and the mill fea- tures 100% continuous-casting operation. New technology introduced between 1967 and 1980 included blast furnace stove cooling, pelletlzlng, coke dry quenching, and bottom blown BOF steelmaking (Q-BOP). The integrated steelworks are coastally located, facilitating receipts of metal ores and coal from overseas suppliers. Raw materials discharged from giant car- riers feed some of the world's largest (5,000-m^) blast furnaces, which in turn feed large basic os^gen furnaces, and then modern rolling mills. A substantial share of Japan's steel production (e.g. , 32% in 1981) is export- ed» Although the United States and the European Comiminity are the principal mar- kets, Japan exports steel to dozens of countries on all continents. STATUS OF THE FERROALLOY INDUSTRY INDUSTRY STRUCTURE In the past 5 years, the active Japa- nese ferroalloy industry has comprised about 35 companies, but 8 of these re- corded no production in 1981. Of the remainder, 17 collectively accounted for over 90% of 1981 output of 10 major fer- roalloy types, as indicated in table 2. Moreover, one of these firms. Pacific Metals Co. Ltd., together with four other firms not listed in the table, accounted for all ferronickel output, though the relative share of total provided by each is not available. The four unlisted firms are Nippon Yakin Kogyo Co., Ltd., Nippon Mining Co., Sumitomo Metal Mining Co., and Shlmura Kako Co. 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CM CO CO m 00 o m CO 9 o CM .^ vo CO m r^ NO r>. 1^ m o ON 00 CM O rH CM ^ ^^ /-> CM in vO rH /"v vO vO ON >* o r-v CO ^^ o m CO H r^ «« ^- ^— #« fv r- ts 9k «« #1 #« M *i *k *t a\ •^ V-/ S-' vO f^ V-' O " CJN CM O ON CM r^ CO NO ^H ^H •—t CM m CM m rH o • • • • • » • • • • O • • o • t • -H • • • r-i . M >. • •H • • • • CO • u .H & & ^ CO • ^ (3 d • * € u * * d ^ OJ • o CO 3 3 iH ^ J*! -H W) t3 rH C CO • CO O bO^ -H CO 4J M d O rH +J CO d • CO •H 0) P M .H d H d • d 4J U4 J3 ^ O Si •H -H 3 CO • O j3 rt -H -H ^ H •• O S d CO J-) CO O T3 .. O O O d CO 4J > . > o • H (U CO o o o o o o o o O M CO o o o o o o o u T> iJ M M M M M M M M M (U 4J h h M M M M •H 0) 3 l-i M M M M M M M M M j: M M M M M M M rH Xi H O 0) (U (U (U . i vO O vO CM CM ^ CO VO CO in CO m o o o ON -* CJN CO 00 00 CM St t-H ^H CO CO vO CO St r^ CM CO o >— t y-i CM 00 A •« A n A A A •k #t A A A ON C>1 ON ■— 1 CO r^ St o CO St o m CM 1— 1 in CO CJN .^ ON I-H r— 1 00 CM sr St St lA csl CO sr 00 . CO O r^ i^ CM CO vO r^ r>. IT) St o r^ 00 00 o r>^ St O o CO -. ir> -* 00 -H ON in o CO vO o 00 0> 00 A A » « A A A A A 9k CT\ O vD VO -* m CM r>. CO -* vO St St ^H -* sf 00 CM ON r-H rH CJN St m m -* in csl CO -. CO CM St vO 00 CO o CO 00 a\ vO CM ON «* 1— 1 t— 1 CM m o St CM m r^ A * *t •^ A A A A A A M 9k ON 00 ^ o ir» vO CO ON CO CO CO m CO ^H CO «* 00 —1 00 CJN t— 1 00 in lO m «* St eg CO o o o O m o m vO vO o -t -* ON 00 r^ vO Csl vO 00 rH ^H m 00 St 00 rH 00 o m o -* >* O CM vO ^H 00 r^ A f^ M M «« •« «« *« «« «« A M ON vo ro. St vO CO vO ON -d- CM CM -d- vO ^^ CO CO r^ 00 r^ m ^H m CO >* -* CO «* CM CO so o vO r^ 00 CM o 00 00 r^ o CM r^ CO o ON r>. o 00 rH 00 St CJN vO r^ ON CO CO ON m m o CO r>» vO I— t in r^ M A mt M M M «k A A A A A a\ CM O CO vO CO CM vO -* CJN r«. >d- in r-t si- v o 00 r^ m vO >a- O vo 00 VO St ^ CM >d- m <—* SO 00 r^ vO 00 vO ^ 00 CO CM CJN CO ^H r». A A A A A A A A A A A A ON -H ^ vO 00 00 ^ ON St -H I-H >* ^H ^H csi .. <* St CO -* CM CO 00 00 VO «* CM r^ CJN ^ CO O CO CJN vO si- r-t CO ON CM ^H 00 o r^ in rH m CO CM VO Cvl r^ ON r^ vO vO o vO vO r^ «^ A 9k «» A A A A A M A A ON 00 00 vO o St O m St 00 CO CO 00 oH ON Sf >* CO r^ 00 vO CM r^ CM CO CO ■^ CM CO vO ^ l>. ON o o o O 00 r»* CO CJN 1^ St fH lO ON CO CM C3N ON m 00 >* ^ 00 CO CM 00 c^ St St -^ m CO VO vO r-* A «l A A A A A A A M «« A ON r^ CO ^H CM r^ ON r>. in ^ vO CO o pH r«» 00 VO -* St 00 CO I— t r^ o CO St St m CM St 00 «* CM -^ vo m r-t m r* r^ 00 vO r^ cs O CM >* rx CM 1-^ o ON r>« vO CO 00 -< O CM CM o CO ON St -d- CO St r^ A A 9% M M A A #k A A A A ON r>. CO i-H ^H vO ON m CO o o CO o 1— ( ON 00 00 m vO 00 m pH r^ 00 CO ^ St m CM CO Ti (U 4J • a (d • o iH • 43 0) • d • M M o • (d • 4J • o • O 'O • (U • -H • 1 d 1 3 • rH • Q (d g cr • "H • 3 3 "H • 00 • • • "H d d M » 3 o •H cd Cd M TS 4-1 43 CO -H d o T3 bO O (4 h o o bo cd d o >^^^ Q % CO > o p bO * o O bO ^ O o^ bv ^^nnf^:::/^' '^o^' r^M^iKi'. '*bv V .* ..^^•-. *. .* .-.^^.v ■?.^^^,** ^.^-, *^^^^* ,^., **^^^,*' .-, i!i> .."'• '^^-e ••••• "^o. 'npv^ "^-^^^^^ 6, «5 0^ ^^-n.^ .^ %'^^'' ^^ %**-^-*^° '*'^^*'.^*\^^' °^*-"\f° .. V^--' S^ • • • aV ^ ♦7^«* A. ^ ,?.t» G^ "^^ *' •^«0« "^^o ^'^ ^9^ */ V^*\^^' V^%«' %^^\/ %*^^%o^ v^^>^ r,»* .G G ^ *■' VVT* ^ *- o. '* .j^-. •> v^' ^"^lu. -.' "oV^ ♦^•v 'A6' '^"^^^*^'^-'/ V^^*'v!'"^'' '°i.*^^"*\0'^ -^ '.- w BOOKBINDING UIDOLETOWN. PA MAR 84 .0^ . .i^ \^ ^o«^^^>o^ ^/^,^%\ y^'^^y^ ^' '^'^""^-^^^ <^ y^^&^°^^ ,1 M } t If' LIBRARY OF CONGRESS 002 959 853 8