FUTURE RUSSIAN RAILROAD CONSTRUCTION. ITS SCOPE AND MANNER OF REALIZATION By G. I. OUSPENSKY Chairman Section of New Railroads^ in the Ministiy of Ways of Communication YOUROVETA HOME & FOREIGN TRADE CO., Inc. Nèw York FUTURE RUSSIAN RAILROAD CONSTRUCTION. ITS SCOPE AND MANNER OF REALIZATION By G. I. OUSPENSKY u Chairman Section of New Railroads, in the Ministry of Ways of Communication Publication Department YOUROVETA HOME & FOREIGN TRADE CO., Inc. New York FUTURE RUSSIAN RAILROAD CONSTRUCTION. ITS SCOPE AND MANNER OF REALIZATION By G. I. OUSPENSKY, Chairman Section of New Railroads, in the Ministry of Ways of Communication. A report read before the Society of Engineers of Ways of Communication on May 1-5, 1915. The problem of the necessary railroad construction, its scope and manner of realization has long since become one of the most vital and burning questions of Russian life. Many works and investigations have been devoted to this problem, especially since the period of 1904-1905, and if at present, the matter is again given a great deal of attention it is because our life, the economic growth of our country, and the newly arisen needs and relationships have somewhat modified the problem. New needs have come to the surface and new factors have made themselves felt, which must be taken into account. It is a matter of common knowledge that we have few rail¬ roads, and that our immense country has fewer railroad facilities than the other European countries and incomparably fewer than the countries which with regard to their distances are most like ours, such as the United States and Canada. We have no inten¬ tion to dwell here on this matter. We shall merely give on the following page a few statistical data regarding the length of the railroad mileage, the area, and the population of the most im¬ portant countries.. The obvious undevelopment of our country with respect to railroad facilities and also the limited amount of means which could be devoted to railroad construction from the verv outset •/ enhanced the importance of planning the latter. The history of our railroad matters has recorded several plans for raihvay con¬ struction, which were elaborated at different epochs. When the necessity of elaborating a plan for railway con¬ struction became apparent, there appeared a number of works which aimed at determining, theoretically, both the amount and regional distribution of the necessary railroad construction. Table 1 NAMES' OF COUNTRIES Area (without large bodies of water in sq. kilometer*) Population Mileage of R.Rs. in operation at end of year under record Railway mileage in kilometers Year Population (both sexes) Year Kilometers* Per 100 sq. kilometers of area Per 10,000 inhabitants of both sexes Belgium 29,451 1912 7,490,411 1913 4,720 16.0 6.3 Great Britain 314,682 1913 46,438,401 1912 37,728 12.0 8.1 Germany 540,858 1913 66,835,000 1913 63,018 11.7 9.4 France 536,464 1912 39,601,599 1913 51,188 9.4 12.9 Austria 300,006 1911 28,571,934 1913 23,200 7.7 8.1 Hungary 325,411 1911 20,886,487 1913 21,881 6.7 10.5 Bosnia & Herzegovina. 51,199 1911 1,931,802 1913 1,956 3.8 11.3 Italy 286,682 1911 35,959,077 1913 17,634 6.2 4.9 U. S. A. & Porto-Rico. 9,369,391 1913 98,180,079 1913 409,944 4.3 41.8 Canada 9,659,400 1911 7,206,645 1912 42,012 0.4 58.3 Australia 7,703,864 1913 4,734,417 1913 28,926 0.4 61.2 Russia in Europe (in¬ cluding Poland, the Caucasus & Finland) 5,900,277 1913 153,353,800 1914 62,912 1.06 4.1 Finland 373,604 1911 3,115,197 1913 3,912 1.05 12.6 Asiatic Russia (with Khiva and Bokhara). 16,255,334 1913 23,045,800 1914 11,707 0.07 5.8 An outburst of these theoretical activities took place during the period after the year 1905, when after a lull in the railway con¬ struction the need for new lines became especially acute and when the necessity of building them entered the people's consciousness. Of the works published at that time the most outstanding are those of Engineer Struve, Engineer Stoltzmann and General Petrov. Struve took only two cardinal factors : area and population, as the point of departure for the comparison of the railway systems of various countries and regions. Stoltzmann used more complex measurements, namely the amount of pood-versts of transported freight, checking up the results by the gross income of the railroads. He believed, this method to be the most perfect way of registering the sum of the economic peculiarities of a * 1 kilometer zz: 0.622 mile. 1 sq. kilometer zzz 0.386 sq. mile. 4 given region, which, in the last account, finds expression in the work of the roads in operation. He related both the gross income and length of the mileage to the area of the region, thus getting a new magnitude, the paying capacity per 100 square versts. Gen. Petrov uses the ratio of the gross income to the population as his measurement. He also establishes a new magnitude, the length of railroad mileage per 10,000 inhabitants, which number he calls the "norm." Having investigated the interaction of the norm and the average expenditure of the population for railroad services, he arrives at the conclusion that a 0.7 verst increase per 10,000 inhabitants during five years presents no dangers. On the basis of this formula Gen. Petrov calculated the general increase of the Russian net as follows : Years Increase in Versts 1908-1913 13,000 1913-1918 15,100 1918-1923 16,900 1923-1928 18,700 1928-1933 20,900 1933-1938 23,100 1938-1943 25,600 1943-1948 16,700 1908-1948 150,000 Without going into a detailed criticism of these theories, it should be stated here that they cannot, of course, solve the highly complex problems of estimating the infiuence of all the economic factors which must be taken into account when we try to determine the relative urgency of the need of a given region for new railroads. Even if we take the gross income and pood- versts^ i. e., the intensity of the traffic, as measures, we cannot help concluding that, although these magnitudes reflect the eco¬ nomic life most faithfully, they do not register all the economic factors, which determine, whether, from the standpoint of eco¬ nomic advantage, a given region should be granted priority in the general scheme of railroad construction. Given, for ex¬ ample, one region characterized by exceedingly high productivity, and another region where consumption is the dominating feature, we necessarily get freight currents between the two. The rail¬ roads in the territory lying between these two regions will be 5 self-sustaining owing to the transit traffic they carry, even if the interstitial region Would be a desert. Judging by the income derived from these roads and the intensity of traffic one might conclude that it is necessary further to develop them. Such a conclusion, however, would be incorrect, for the volume of transit carried by a road is not a measure of the productivity of the area where the road lies. It is erroneous to infer from the large income and the intensive traffic of such road that new roads should be built in the region. It would seem that there are other magnitudes which express more closely the economic forces of various territories. The ratio of the amount of commodities shipped and received by the population of a given region, to its population and area, which is known as the coefficient of freight capacity, would appear to be one such magnitude. But these coefficients are at present not to be had, and until they become accessible, the traditional methods are the most efficient and reliable ones.''' Lately the economic growth of our country has brought about such an en'ormous increase in railroad transportation, that there has come into being a new factor, namely the complete congestion of some of our railway lines, which must be taken into account in solving the problems of railroad construction. It has become necessary either hurriedly to add another track to some of the roads or to build parallel lines in the direction of the freight current already established. The new roads whose construction will come up for consid¬ eration fall into two groups ; the task of some of them, will be to reduce the congestion of the net, others, known as pioneer roads, will have to meet the transportation needs of regions which have no railroads. Our railroads it will be observed, are so scarce that even the typical roads of the first category are of great local importance, and that, while discharging their primary service, which is the reception and transmission of the existing freight current, they, at the same time, meet local needs. The work of the Russian system in terms of pood-versts in connection with the growth of the mileage is presented in the diagram which is appended to the pamphlet by Mr. A. A. Boublikoiï, '"The Necessity of Russo-American Cooperation in * Quite recently a number of these coefficients have been calculated, and the results which were obtained differed from those of the earlier investigation. The discussion of these results will be the subject of a separate paper. 6 Russian Railroad Construction." The latter shows that the growth of the net is closely accompanied by an increase in the traffic intensity. An especially striking rise in the traffic in¬ tensity took place after 1908, which phenomenon is wholly ac¬ counted for by the great wave of prosperity which has swept our country in late years. The following table will furnish the necessary data for the comparison of the work of our railroads with that of foreign systems : Table 2 Number of pood-versts in millions, per verst Year European Russia Germany United States France Austria- Hungary 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906 1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 48.8 47.4 51.3 52.3 46.3 51.3 54.8 53.3 58.6 59.6 63.0 67.6 74.0 • • • 42.9 43.7 46.5 47.3 50.3 53.7 56.2 53.0 56.0 58.7 63.7 41.6 43.5 46.7 45.5 47.6 53.8 57.6 52.2 51.6 59.2 58.3 • • • • • • • • • 26.0 26.1 26.4 26.2 27.4 28.9 30.9 31.8 32.8 33.7 35.5 • • • • * • 27.6 27.2 27.5 27.7 28.9 30.4 32.3 32.6 32.8 33.1 35.7 • • • • • • • • • This table shows that, as regards the growth of traffic in¬ tensity, the railroad system of European Russia has outdone those of all the other countries of Western Europe, except per¬ haps the net of Great Britain,'for which there are no data in the Statistical Books of the Ministry of Ways of Communication, on the basis of which the table is compiled. In interpreting the table, it must be taken into consideration that the German net, which is most like the Russian with respect to intensity, has a higher percentage of roads with two and more tracks. Thus, in 1910, the ratio of mileage of double or more tracked lines to the general railroad mileage was 272% in European Russia, 39.2% in Germany and 10.6% in the United States. It is clear from the table that the traffic intensity of our net, which in 1908 amounted to 53,300,000 poods per verst, reached 7 the sum of 74,000,000 in 1913, thus averaging a yearly increase of 7%. But the general increase in intensity gives no adequate idea of the increase which takes place in individual sections of the system. Let us take several such sections as an example. Table 3 NAME OF SECTION 1. Tula-Serpukhov-Moscow 2. Sinelnikovo-Y ekaterinoslav-V erkhovzevo- Pyatikhatki 3. Znamenka-Bobrinskaya-Fastov 4. Sinelnikovo-Pavlograd-Lozovaya 5. Kovel-Rovno 6. Balashov-Liski-Valuiki 7. Omsk-Cheliabinsk 8. Chelyabinsk-Yekaterinburg 9. Yekaterinburg-Vyatka 10. Vyatka-Vologda-Petrograd 11. Chelyabinsk-Ufa-Samara • Average Yearly % of Increase in Freight Traffic for the Years 1909-1912-13 10-14 17-18 12-15 25 22-28 24-35 24 11-14 17-36 27-36 10-17 According to this table, the increase on the lines running from the Ural and Siberia toward Petrograd is more than 20%, on the lines carrying the Donetzky coal up to 15%, etc., etc. The intensity of the growth of the traffic in the whole system and particularly in individual directions raises the problem of how well our net is adopted to the growing traffic. This ques¬ tion often arose before the men in control of our railroads and led to the strengthening of separate lines and junctions. When¬ ever the insufficiency of the road capacity of some line or group of lines became apparent, an official was dispatched to the locality and on the basis of the data collected on the spot he elaborated a definite scheme of .strengthening separate sections of the road. The data were not sufficiently complete to cover all the changes in the freight current for several years and during separate periods of time. Besides, the changes brought about by the con¬ struction of new railways were often overlooked, for the prob¬ lems relating to new railroad were settled in most cases by another Ministry. As a result, the planning of new railroads left much to be desired. 8 The history of the Russian railroads has recorded several attempts of a systematic investigation of the road capacity of our railroad system. The first investigation dates back to 1908, when the Ministry of Ways of Communication laid before the Duma a bill providing for a plan of strengthening the railroad system which involved the expenditure of 916 million rubles. The attempt, we confess, was rather a failure. If we compare the number of second tracks which was provided for in the bill with the number which was actually laid, we see that only an insig¬ nificant number of the former has been eventually built, for the simple reason that most of them were later found altogether unnecessary. This may be accounted for by the fact that before 1908 the study of the work of our railroads did not rest on a sufficiently firm foundation. It was only with the formation of District Committees that there became available well organized statistical material, covering the traffic intensity from month to month and from week to week, pointing out the causes of the variations in the freight current and revealing the irregularity which char¬ acterizes the traffic on the whole system. At present, there already exists satisfactory statistical mate¬ rial covering a sufficiently long period of time. There are records of the weekly number of cars dispatched in the separate sections of the entire railroad system. By comparing these figures with the data regarding the monthly and yearly traffic it is possible to determine the seasonal irregularity of the freight current. This irregularity is considerable. Those parts of our system which carry the products of mining industries work more or less uniformly. The irregularity on these lines is expressed by the coefficient 1/10 approximately, i. e., the maximurh monthly traffic in pood-versts or in cars equals 1/10 of the yearly traffic. The coefficient of irregularity in the case of railroad is carrying other products is considerably higher. Thus, on lines carrying grain or timber, it is 1/7 and even 1/6. At any rate, in consid¬ ering the extent to which a section is congested it is necessary to take into consideration the coefficient of irregularity. Further¬ more, the study of monthly traffic also reveals a considerable amount of irregularity. The highest number of cars dispatched during a week differs from the monthly average by 15% to 20%. In case a section is more crowded, the traffic on it is much more uniform, for the reason that such a line can handle no more 9 freight than it actually handles. The remaining freight either waits for its turn, is refused admission, or is dispatched by a circuitous route. Finally, as for the number of trucks per train, it is obviously impossible to expect a line with trains made up of the maximum number of cars throughout a given period. There are numerous factors which tend to reduce the number trucks to a train thus giving rise to a correction which must be of course, taken into consideration. The reduction is generally about 10% of the maximum. The actual work of the Russian railroad system in 1913 in its relation to the road capacity of separate sections, during the same year, Was thoroughly analyzed. The sections on which upward of 80, 70, 60 and 50% of thç road capacity were utilized dur¬ ing separate weekly periods were especially examined. It is to be noted that in the case of single-track lines, the utilization may be considered normal only when it does not exceed 80% of the road capacity, because 20'% of it should be allowed for reserve and for the delays in the traffic which happen daily and which are inevitable. A utilization exceeding 80% shows that the work is done at the expense of the reserve capacity and must be considered abnormal. The utilization of more than 70% of the road capacity shows an approach to the dangerous maximum, and such a section must be subjected to careful investigation. The analysis made showed clearly that in 1913 most of our railroads utilized more than 70% of the road capacity, i. e., worked with great intensity. But this conclusion is not suffi¬ ciently concrete. To determine the status of a road, it is impor¬ tant to know not only that it was operated with abnormal in¬ tensity during a certain weekly period, but also how long this abnormal utilization of the road capacity lasted. The latter ques¬ tion was also thoroughly investigated and the analyses showed that on very many sections there "was an enormous number of weekly periods with a utilization exceeding 70%. This means that many parts of our net were at that time extremely con¬ gested. Of these, the railroads of the entire Donetz Basin, with the lines running from it, should be mentioned first. Completely overcrowded are the Western roads, which connect the Donetz and Dombrova Basins and carry a large amount of various freights, in addition to coal. The Northern and Eastern exits of the Donetz Basin, especially the system of South Eastern Rail- 10 roads, were also congested. The line from Kupyansk to Valuiki,' and further to Bala^hov and, also the Ryazan-Ural Railroad to Rtishchevo and Penza, the lines Millerovo and Yeletz-Valuiki- Moscow all are congested. The roads in the Vistula region were also extremely overworked. The situation is equally unsatis¬ factory in the North. The Northern lines from Omsk to Petro¬ grad are congested, just as the Samara-Zlatoust Railroad, which carries the Siberian freights. x The actual congestion with existing freight is not, however, the only thing that must be taken into consideration in deciding whether it is necessary to develop the lines in a certain direction. Two new factors must be reckoned with, namely the influence of the railways under construction and the natural growth of the traffic. 9 The influence of the newly-built roads, taking into account the intensity of construction which is now being planned, is very great. Many lines are completely unloaded by the new railways, others, on the contrary, experience an increase in their traffic. In the near future, when the roads now in the process of construc¬ tion will be opened, we shall have to face a very serious change in our freight currents. The analysis of the influence of new roads is rather compli¬ cated. Until lately our investigators have hardly given any at¬ tention to this matter. The Commission of New Railways, which plans the construction of new lines, studies the freight traffic of the new roads and its financial effects on the neighboring lines, but it states its conclusions rather summarily,, without attempt¬ ing to determine the effects on each section. The data regard¬ ing the new roads contained in the records of the Commis¬ sion are often unable to answer the question as to what are the sections from which freight will be drawn. We must, therefore, resort to the data which is already available and analyzed. Owing to the kindness of the Department of Railroad Affairs, which put at our disposal a mass of crude data relating to the railroads, it has been possible for us to trace the changes in freight traffic, which have to be produced by the new roads. The final results of the investigation showed clearly that the influence of the new roads is very great and must needs be taken into ac¬ count in studying the work of our existing railroad system. They reveal some interesting details ; thus, the construction of the line Vorozhba-Orsha has recently been authorized. This 11 line draws away an exceedingly large amount of freight ; namely, more than two-thirds of it from the section Bryansk-Smolensk- Vitebsk, while it greatly adds to, the traffic carried by the Vorozhba-Bassy section. But the latter is a single-track railway and a congested road at that. Consequently, the construction of the Vorozhba-Orsha railroad will necessitate the laying of an ad¬ ditional track along the line Vorozhba-Bassy, or else the con¬ struction of a new unloading road. Thus, to decide what lines should be relieved by the con¬ struction of new railroads, it is necessary to take into consider¬ ation the congestion of our net, the effects of the new roads on the freight current and also the natural growth of the railroad traffic. A detailed survey of the work of a great many lines, which takes into account the natural growth of the traffic and the influence of new roads, leads one to the conclusion that many lines should be strengthened. That these lines should be able to function normally, it is necessary either to build second tracks, or to construct new unloading roads. There can hardly be any hesi¬ tation in the choice between new railroads and second tracks added to old lines. Railroads are so scarce in Russia that every new road, even if built for the special purpose of unloading an¬ other line, will be of inestimable service to regions completely de¬ prived of railway transportation and will thus assume a great local importance. UNLOADING RAILROADS What railroads could replace the necessary second tracks? It has been already mentioned that the lines running from the Donetz Basin are working with very high intensity. 1.—Grishmo^Rovno. The Western direction coincides with the mighty freight current between the Caucasus and the Donetz Basin, on one hand, and between the Krivoy-Rog mining region and the Vistula- Dombrova industrial district, on the other. This is a stable and growing freight current, and the future holds the promise of rapid development for it. The freight traffic in this direction is at present handled, in the North, by the line Rostov-Nikitovka-Lozovaya-Poltava-Kiev- Kovel, and in the South, by Eakaterina line and the South¬ western railroads. The growth of the freight traffic along these lines is estimated at 10 and more per cent per year. Thus, in the 12 case of the section Lozovaya-Poltava, the percentage of growth is about 16.2, and for the section Kiev-Poltava it is about 21.5. Since these lines have no reserve road capacity, such a rapid growth of freight traffic necessitates an immediate reinforcement of the system in this direction. For this reason, the construction of this line Grishino-Rovno, which has just begun, should be wel¬ comed. This line, which unloads the direction in question, will properly, although not promptly enough, solve the problem of the regular and unobstructed development of freight exchange along one of the most important directions of the natural flow of freight. 2.—Kharkov^—Penza—Inza. Turning East, we encounter the altogether congested Bala- shov railroad, which connects Kharkov and Penza, via the city of Balashov. This line handles the freight and emigration traffic flowing from the thickly populated Little-Russian and South¬ western provinces into the provinces situated on the lower reaches of the Volga and Kama, and also into the Ural and Si¬ beria. The intensity of the work developed by the Balashov road is a measure of the size of the freight currents it handles. The eastward freight current includes emigrants' baggage, sugar, coal, metals and metallic wares for the Volga provinces and the region beyond the Volga, while grain, timber, and fish from As¬ trakhan and the Ural Sea flow in the opposite direction. At pres¬ ent, the rational and unobstructed handling of these .enormous masses of freight is impossible. Shipment by a roundabout route has become an everyday phenomenon along this line. These defects can be eliminated in only one way ; namely, con¬ structing in the very near future a well equipped transit trunk line Kharkov-Penza-Inza. This line, which figures in numerous plans of railroad con¬ struction, will also have a local importance, inasmuch as it will meet the needs of many roadless sections of a region, which has reached a comparatively high level of economic develop¬ ment. Unforunately, the construction of this line has not as yet gone beyond the preliminary stage of theoretical discussion. In the detailed plan elaborated by General Petrov this road heads the list of necessary new railroads. Nevertheless, the question has only recently been examined by the Commission of New Railroads, and the actual construction of the Kharkov-Penza- Inza line appears to be a matter of a more or less distant future. 13 3.—Donetz Basin-Moscow. The line running from the Donetz Basin north is next in importance. It is the shortest line of communication between the richest and most developed sections of the Empire, between the mines of the South and the factories and mills of the central industrial region, between the Caucasus and Crimea, with their ample and varied natural wealth, on one hand, and the main administrative and economic centers of the country. Here, too, we observe the same congestion on the railroads. To supply our industries with mineral fuel it is imperative to create a new exit from the Donetz Basin to Moscow. For this purpose it is neces¬ sary to construct the line Rostov-Shterovka-Moscow. The va¬ rious problems, which our economic development will bring to the fore, will, no doubt, necessitate the construction of other lines running northward, but the urgent need for the construc¬ tion of the Rostov-Shterovka-Moscow line must enter the public consciousness as an incontrovertible truth borne out by the pres¬ ent economic status of the country and by the whole trend of future economic development. To support this assertion let us cite a few figures regarding the amount of mineral fuel mined in the Donetz Basin and ex¬ ported from it in recent years. In 1910, the export of mineral fuel from that region amounted to 787 million poods ; in 1913 it was 1,197 million poods. That same year the export deficit of Donetz fuel was estimated by the Kharkov District Committee at about ICQ million poods ; i. e., under normal conditions of in¬ dustrial development 100 million poods had to be entered on the debit side of the export from the Donetz Basin. The difference between the export in 1912 and 1913 amounted to 158 million poods, or 15%. The amount of the Donetz anthracite grew even more rapidly. In 1909 the export of anthracite was estimated at 133 million poods ; in 1912 at 199 million ; in 1913 at 255 million. The difference between 1912 and 1913 was 56 mil¬ lion poods, or 28%. The figures relating to the Northern direction alone are even more eloquent. The table on the following page, compiled from the data of the Kharkov District Committee, shows the growth of the import of mineral fuel into the Moscow region. 14 Exported from Donetz Basin into Moscow region. t k Poods (in millions) 1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 Mineral fuel Including anthracite ... 43 49 43 38 43 68 112 100% 18 100% 24 100% 20 100% 16 . 100% 20 100% 44 100% 75 42% 49% 46% 42% 46% 65% 67% The consumption of anthracite plays an extraordinarily im¬ portant role in the growth of the consumption of hard mineral fuel in the Moscow region. The table shows that the amount of anthracite imported into the Moscow region rose from 16 millions in 1910 to 75 millions in 1913 ; i. e., it increased 4.7 times in three years,' while the general import of mineral fuel frôm the Donetz Basin into the Moscow region increased three times for the same period of time. The consumption of coal in the Moscow region always depended on the amount of imported mineral oil. These two products always competed with each other, with varying success. At present the general industrial outlook is such that we have no reason to expect an increase in the output of mineral oil and a reconquest of the Moscow region by it. Consequently, the growth of the region's industries will in the future continue to demand increased coal import and a corresponding adjustment of the freight and road capacity of the lines running from the Donetz Basin into this region. Given our enormous distances, any superfluous haul of a product as bulky, cheap, and at the same time as important for industrial development as is coal means countless losses gen¬ erally. Therefore the constantly growing northward freight stream must be handled by a railway traced so as to form the shortest line between the mines and Moscow and adapted to the needs of mass freight traffic. The trunk line Rostov-Shterovka- Moscow would, in the first place, solve this transit problem. It will, furthermore, serve a number of new coal mines and pass through rich regions which are at present almost completely deprived of railroad communication. The need for such a line naturally follows from the consid- 15 erations and figures covering the import of coal from the Donetz Basin into the Moscow region, which were cited above. Further¬ more, there is ground to believe that the output of coal will in the future grow at a more rapid rate than has hitherto been the case. A number of new railroads are at present in the process of construction in the coal mining regions, for the purpose of serv¬ ing new coal mines of great richness. In the region of the coal- carrying branches Grishino-Rutchenkovo and Grishino-Dobro- polye, which are at present in the process of construction, a coal output of 70 million poods is expected yearly. The construction of the following branch lines has been authorized : Removskaia, Dolzhansk, Rudnichnaya, Karakovo (Donetz-Grushevo), The Bryansk and Novosiltzevo Mines, The Karl Mine, the "Russian Providence," and Yenakievo. The freight attracted by these lines will amount to 110 million poods of coal and anthracite yearly, at the least. The construction of the new line Rodakovo- Likhaya is being completed. The territory of this line alone will yield 45 million poods of coal, according to the estimates of the Commission of New Railroads and the Kharkov Mining Committee. According to the conclusions of the same Commis¬ sion, the coal transportation of all the lines enumerated above will amount to 225 million poods yearly. The Congress of Mining Industrials of Southern Russia has requested the Government to build eight new feeding branches.''' As there is at present a marked scarcity of coal on the market, the construction of most of these lines, which will add many millions of poods of mineral fuel, should be considered a matter of prime importance. All the information at our disposal indicates that a rapid increase in the coal transportation is inevitable, and that the critical state of our industries' coal supply threatens to become * These branches are as follows: 1. From the Grachi station of the South-Eastern R. R. to the village Yekaterininskaya, Province of the Don Cossacks... .20 verst 2. From the Rovenetz deposit to the Daryevka station, Yeka- terina Railroad 6 " 3. From Komendantskaya station, Yekaterina R. R. to the mines of A, D. Kharajayev's Successors 9 " 4. Extension from the Shchetovo branch from the Zhelezo station 5. From the Boldyrevo Deposit to the 10th verst of the Chist- yakovo branch of the Yekaterina R. R 6 " 6. From the Makeyevo Deposit to the Khartzysk station 5 " 7. From the Sutagan station to the Mstzikhovskaia station, N. D. R. R. 16 " 8. From the Sukhetz station of the Grishino-Dobropolye line.... 4 " 16 a chronic phenomenon. The immediate construction of an un¬ loading line of high capacity will alone remedy the situation. Other Exits from the Donetz Basin. The line Rostov-Shterovka-Moscow alone will hardly be able to meet the needs for the export of coal and anthracite. A line connecting the Shuya-Ivanovo industrial section with the Donetz Basin will, no doubt, become necessary in the future. The line Murom-Tambov-Donetz Basin, the part of which from Murom to Tambov has already been approved by the Commission of New Railroads, would serve the purpose. Furthermore, to export coal in the Northern and North¬ western direction it will be necessary to construct the line Liman-Orel, which, with the completion of the trunk line Orel- Tzarskoye Selo now being constructed, will constitute the short¬ est road from the Donetz Basin to the Petrograd region and the Baltic provinces. An extension from Orel to Moscow would form an important new trunk line, which, besides, would pass through a thickly populated territory insufficiently served by railroads. The export of coal, which has increased in recent years, will, no doubt, necessitate the construction of a line running from Shterovka to Mariupol. Freight Capacity of Single Track Lines. The figures cited above regarding the growth of the export of mineral fuel, however significant they may be in and by them¬ selves, will throw even more light on the situation, if we take into consideration how much freight a single track or a double track line can carry without difficulty. To avoid abstract and groundless theorizing, it wilTbe best to examine the work of the single track sections which at present export Donetz coal. The Lozovaya-Foltava-Kiev line is typical in this respect. Now, how many poods are carried by this line one way yearly ? The section Romodan-Lubny is the most con¬ gested portion of this line. In 1913, 121 million poods of all sorts of freight, including 100 million poods of Donetz coal passed through this section. Both ways the line carried 145 million poods. In other words, working mostly one way, the road was particularly adapted to the export of the products of the Donetz 17 Basin, for, in this case, the work in one direction undoubtedly increases the road capacity of the line. Consequently, it may be concluded that the maximum of mineral fuel a single-track line will carry is 100 to 120 million poods yearly. Other lines will carry even less freight, depending on the coefficient of irregularity and on the nature of the freight. Thus, the line Kharkov-Balashov carries one way much less freight. The tonnage (in pood-verst per verst) of a number of typical single-track sections is given in the table on the fol¬ lowing page. Let us consider the highly typical section of the Vladikavkaz Railroad between Beslan and Prokhladnaya, where a second parallel track is now in the course of construction. In 1913, this single track line was working to the limit of its capacity. It was absolutely incapable of carrying more than it actually carried. Both ways the section transported 165 million poods of freight, of which number 93 million poods were transported one way. The section Navlya-Bryansk is also in an exceedingly critical state. This line receives two freight currents : one originates on the North-Donetz Railroad and consists of Donetz products shipped in the direction of Moscow ; the other flows from the South-Western provinces in the same direction and consists of other freight. This line transported, in one year, 169 million poods of freight, of which 109 million poods were carried in the direction of the main freight current. Comparing these figures, we arrive at the conclusion that a single track line running from the Donetz Basin cannot handle more than 100 to 120 million poods of new freight, counting transportation in the main direc¬ tion alone. On the other hand, we know that the yearly increase of the output of Donetz coal alone amounts to 158 million poods. Consequently, to insure the untrammeled development of as powerful a freight producing unit as is the Donetz Basin, it is necessary, speaking theoretically, to build one new road every year. It may be asked whether the existing double track trunk line of the Moscow-Kursk Railroad could not meet the needs for northward coal export. Unfortunately, the Moscow-Kursk Rail¬ way is not at all adapted to the transportation of a large amount of freight. As a matter of fact, in 1913 the line worked to the limit of its capacity. This road forms' a part of a very important 18 TABLE 4 SECTION OF RAILROADS Ryazan-Ural R. R. Atkarsk-Rtistchevo Paveletz-Kashira (double track between Kashira & O'zherelye) Southern R. R. Yasinovataya-Kr. Toretz. Dolinskaya-Nikolayev . .. South-Eastern R. R. Valuyki-Liski-Talovaya . Talovaya-Novok'hopersk Povorino-Balashov .... Valuyki-Kupyansk Chertkovo-Ostrozhka ... Yekaterina R. R. Pyatikhatki-Vezchny Kut. Mushketovo-Y asinovataya Rostov-Taganrog Gosudarev - Bairak - Niki- tovka V erkhovtzevo-Dolgintzevo Vladikavkaz R. R. Groznyi-Beslan Beslan-Prokhladnaya ... Moscow-Riazan-V oronezh R. R. Poltava-Romodan Romodan-Lubny Lubny-Kiev Year Number of tracks 1910 1 1913 1909 1 1913 1910 1 1913 1909 1 1913 1909 1 1913 1 1909 i 1913 1 1909 1913 X 1909 1 1913 X 1909 1913 1909 1 1913 I 1909 1 1913 1909 1913 1 1909 1 1913 i 1910 1913 1 1910 1 1913 1 1910 1913 1 1910 1 1913 1 1910 1 1913 19 Pood-versts per verst F orward Return 60.0 17.7 61.0 24.1 70.8 10.1 87.6 15.7 ' 54.8 21.0 109.5 32.6 114.2 3.9 102.9 5.8 38.4 41.7 40.0 81.2 35.0 50.2 42.0 60.0 14.5 29.8 37.9 56.0 61.9 20.2 112.0 23.7 12.0 113.0 15.0 116.0 73.0 9.0 120j0 15.0 32.0 45.0 49.0 81.0 79.1 13.9 101.1 19.7 27.4 37.9 54.3 131.1 67.2 33.2 80.8 63.2 70.8 38.3 93. 0 72.5 68.2 14.4 106.1 18.0 75.4 16.4 113.2 22.0 68.4 14.5 102.0 19.0 Average yearly per cent, of increase Forward Return • • • • • • 12 • • • 19 33 12 • • • 12. 2 • • • 24 • • • 40.2 21.9 20 • • • 6 7 16 14 14 20 • • • 10.4 24.5 61.5 • • • 30.1 10.4 ^.8 19 8 17 11 16 10 passenger trunk line. The passenger traffic is bound to grow on it and reduce the remaining road capacity, which might be used for, the dispatch of freight trains. Along this line there are large urban centres, such as Ser¬ pukhov, Tula, Orel and Kursk, and farther on Kharkov, Slavyansk and Rostov. The rapid growth of these cities leads to an increase in the volume of local freight and hinders the movement of transit freight. Besides, the passenger traffic in the vicinity of large centres, such as Moscow or Kharkov, is so heavy that it reduces the number of freight trains which can be dispatched. The arrival in Moscow of suburban trains and of direct passenger trains from distant points is so scheduled that from 5 to 10 A. M. and from 5 to 10 P. M. the dispatch of freight trains is almost impossible. The latter must be dispatched in the remaining 14 hours. Of course, there is a way of remedy¬ ing the situation by laying additional tracks at the sections of the highest accumulation of passenger trains. For this reason, it has been suggested that a third and fourth track should be built on the section of Podolsk-Moscow where the passenger traffic reaches the maximum of intensity. This measure will, no doubt, increase the road capacity of the Moscow-Kursk Railroad, but it will by no means solve the problem of handling the enor¬ mous mass of Donetz freight. In general, it is not a sound policy to use a line carrying mostly a passenger traffic, for the transportation of a large freight tonnage. The need is felt for the differentiation of railroad lines into passenger roads and freight roads, in agreement with the prevailing type of traffic handled by them. The passenger lines should be provided with all the necessary safety devices, while the freight lines may for some time go without all these expen¬ sive devices. From this standpoint, it would be best to adapt the trunk line Moscow-Kursk-Kharkov-Lozovaya-Rostov for passen¬ ger traffic, especially since this line passes through many large cities, which are to feed the currents of passenger traffic: In recent years a good deal of attention has been given to the problem of organizing a regular service of refrigerator trains. This service will demand the introduction of special express trains made up of refrigerating cars, and will also tend to reduce the road capacity of the line as far as ordinary freight trains are concerned. The "refrigerator" service will, no doubt, have to 20 be left to the Moscow-Kursk-Lozovaya-Rostov line for the reason that it is serving a thickly populated region. Thus, the growth of passenger traffic, the need for the in¬ troduction of "refrigerator" service, which is vital for the solu¬ tion of the acute problem of supplying the population of our large cities with food, and, finally, the unsuitability of the Moscow-Kursk Railroad, with its large angle of inclination (0.008), for heavy freight traffic—all these circumstances preclude the possibility of transforming this road into a first-class transit trunk line. At present, the Moscow-Kursk Railroad is still able somehow to cope with the enormous freight tonnage it is called upon to handle, but we cannot count upon this line in the future. 4.—Petrograd-Omsk. The next problem which has attracted much attention is the urgent necessity of unloading the northern exit from Siberia via Yekaterinburg along a line running from Perm to Vyatka, Vologda, Obukhovo and the Baltic ports. The matter was re¬ peatedly discussed both in local District Committees and in the Central Committee. The problem of reinforcing the Northern exit from Siberia has long since attracted the attention of the people and institutions in charge of our railway system. The growth of the traffic along that direction is shown in the following table : Railway Sections Period of time Average yearly increase in traffic intensity in the eastward direction Yekaterinburg-Perm . . 1910-1913 27% Perm-Vyatka 1909-1913 22% Vyatka-Kotelnich .... i( ■ 36% Kotelnich-Sharya (( 32% Sharya-Nikola-Poloma. n 32% Nikola Poloma-Buy..,. (( 31% Buy-Vologda a 33% Vologda-Cherepovetz . 32% Cherepovetz-Tikhvin . (( 27% Tikhvin-Zvanka ti 27% Zvanka-Obukhovo .... • a 28% Passenger traffic in pairs of trains Existing in 1913 Expected in 1918 S to 6 3 21 These data, illustrating as they do the tremendous growth of the freight current flowing from Siberia into European Russia, do not, however, furnish the basis for the determination of the road capacity necessary to handle the existing freight, for the amount of freight tonnage is not uniformly distributed over the year. This holds especially true of the roads carrying so-called "season" freight, to which belongs the line under consideration. The road capacity must correspond with the highest amount of freight that may be expected at any point of the long road from Siberia to the Baltic ports. The only true method of calcu¬ lating the future amount of traffic must be based on the number of cars which actually passed through a section of the road dur¬ ing a limited period, for the tonnage of a yearly period is of too general a nature. In determining the growth of the traffic and its future distribution these figures can be used only as auxiliary material. The natural growth of the traffic carried by the Northern roads connecting Siberia with European Russia is not the only circumstance that must be taken into consideration. Two new factors will appear in the near future and profoundly influence Siberian transportation. One is the construction of the lines Yekaterinburg-Kazan and Nizhni Novgorod-Kotelnich, which in opening new exits for the Siberian freights will produce deep changes in the freight currents. The other factor is the con¬ struction, which is now well under Way, of a number of lines perpendicular to the Trans-Siberian, namely Atchinsk-Minusinsk, Altai, Kulundino, and also the West-Ural, East-Ural and Troitzk- Kustanai Railroads. These railways will, no doubt, attract a considerable amount of freight, which will swell the general freight traffic between European Russia and Siberia. The efïect of these new forces must be gauged with utmost precision. The influence of the roads now being built is esti¬ mated on the basis of the data regarding the amount of freight they draw away from or attract to the existing roads, which data were collected by the Commission for New Railways. The esti¬ mate of the effect of new roads is based on the transportation statistics for 1911. As the configuration of the net, which was dealt with, was assumed just the same as it was to obtain in 1918, it follows that the ratio, in %%, of freight drawn away from a definite section to its aggregate transit traffic will be in 1918 the same as it was in 1911. The same principle underlies 22. the division in the junctions of new freight tonnage, which is expected to be created by new lines. The main conclusions derived from the study of the effect of the new lines in the Northern districts show clearly that the freight drawn away by the Kazan-Yekaterinburg and Nizhny- Kotelnitch trunk lines is fully compensated by the freight at¬ tracted by the roads which are now in the process of construc¬ tion, so that the Northern trunk line, when the new lines are constructed, ^vill be in the same situation as it is at present. The line Petropavlovsk-Kokchetav has not been taken into consideration, for the reason that its construction has not been definitely authorized. But this road, which is a matter of vital importance for the locality, will surely be built in the near future. It will dispatch up to 120 cars westward. The very high percentage (20 per year) of increase is ac¬ counted for by the importance the Northern direction has as a trunk line connecting the Ural and Siberia with the capital and the sea. Consequently, the figures cited cannot be considered exaggerated. The Importance of the Ural as an Industrial Centre. In late years the industrial life of the Ural has been marked by an awakening and a reconstruction on a new basis. The Ural is beginning to work up on the spot various half products. Many mills, such as the Lysva, Kythtym, Sergink-Ufaley, Nikolo- Pavdiaa, Upper Iset, are transformed into enormous corporate enterprises and increase their output. We must look forward to a further growth of the Ural industries in the future. It has lately been suggested that all the munition factories should be transferred to the Ural. This development expressed itself in the growth of traffic on the Perm Railroad. In 1909, this line car¬ ried 53,261,000 poods of ore, iron, cast iron, sheet iron, coal, charcoal, copper and salt. In 1913, its tonnage increased to 89,858,000 poods. In 1909, the Petrograd and Baltic regions received from Ural 1,286,000 poods of iron, steel and cast iron. In 1912, the export of these products into the same regions increased to 2,662,000 poods. In the future the Ural will get two new trunk lines : the West-Ural and the East-Ural Railroads."^ In addition, the con- * Both railroads are already open for operation during the war.— Translator. 23 struction of two other lines has been authorized: "The Society of Ural Branches" and Orsk-Berdyaush. These lines are bound to stimulate the industrial development of the Ural and, hence, its exchange with the capital and the Baltic Sea. With the eco¬ nomic unfoldment of this rich region, the growth of transporta¬ tion will become even more intense than it was during the above- mentioned years, "when the Ural industries were yet in the stage of organization and acquisition of markets for their products. Turning to Siberia and its exchange with the capital and the Baltic ports, we also observe a steady growth of freight traffic. In 1907, 26,235,000 poods of freight passed through the Chelya¬ binsk Station to the Siberian Railroad. In 1912, the tonnage in¬ creased to 52,835,000 poods. For the years 1909-1912, the ton¬ nage of the transit freight amounted to 26% to 33% of the entire freight carried by the section Vyatka-Obukhovo. ' During this period of time the average increase of transit in the direction of Obukhovo amounted to 23% per year. Local freight received and shipped in the same direction increased during the same period 18% per year on the average. Therefore, 20% may be con¬ sidered the average increase in the future. Consequently, to adapt the Northern line to the expected freight tonnage, it is imperative to lay a second track throughout the whole of the Yekaterinburg-Obukhovo line. This will not, however, be a rational solution of the problem, for the following reasons. The line Vyatka-Petrograd, as the terminal section of the Great Siberian trunk line, which connects Siberia and the Ural with Petrograd, as the capital and the nearest seaport, has a tremendous, it may be said without exag¬ geration, world importance. Connecting as it does such impor¬ tant centers as Perm, Vyatka, and Vologda with the Northern Ural and Petrograd, this line never lacks freight. Besides, a number of branches either aùthorized, as Byeloozero, Makaryev, Omutnino, or planned bv the Regional Committees, as Soligalich- Chukhloma-Galich and Vetluga, will fully compensate the line for the transit traffic, which may be drawn away by a new unloading road. It is also necessary to take into consideration the increase of traffic in the direction of Archangel, as a result of changing the existing narrow gauge road into a broad gauge road.* * This reconstruction already took place during the war.—Translator. 24 The rapid growth of traffic on the Northern line is a testi¬ mony to the important part played by it in the freight exchange of the country. The Perm-Petrograd road must be recognized as a trunk line of first-class importance. Perm-Petrograd is not, however, the shortest line between the terminal points. These considerations led to the question whether the construction of an unloading road would not be preferable to the layiñg of a second track. The Petrograd-Krasnoufimsk-Omsk line would very well serve this purpose. •iiJ: The Petrograd-Rybinsk section would at the same time be the terminal section for the Petrograd-Kinel line which is being planned. As for the Krasnoufimsk-Kostroma line, which is merely a variation of the Krasnoufimsk-Kotelnich line suggested for investigation by the Budget Commission of the Duma, it will unload the Perm-Vologda-Petrograd line. This line will, no doubt, be valuable not only as a transit railway but also as a local road. The parts of the governments of Kostroma, Vyatka, and Perm, through which the road passes, are sufficiently populated, having a density of 40 to 50 people to a square verst. In the vicinity of Krasnoufimsk there are considerable stores of wheat, farther west there is the zone of oats, and still further west there is the forest zone. Under these conditions, the local importance of the road is immense. The local value of the Rybinsk-Petrograd section is also obvious. Crossing the government of Novgorod, this road will here serve several cities, such as Vesyegonsk, Ustyuzhna, Mologa, and numerous forest regions. Finally, as the terminal section of so enormously important a trunk line as the Petrograd-Kinel road, it will form a direct exit toward Petro¬ grad from the Volga Basin, the South-Eastern region and Tashkent. Thus, the construction of the Petrograd-Krasnou- fimsk Railroad is imperative both from the standpoint of the Northern transit traffic and from that of the local needs of the territory through which it will pass. To conclude this survey of the needs of the Northern por¬ tion of our net. We must turn our attention to the lines connecting Siberia with the Ural region. At the end of the year 1913, there was opened for operation a road extending from Tyumen to Omsk, east of Yekaterinburg. At present, this line is already congested, and east of the Ural there exists the same urgent need for the construction of a second 25 track on the Siberian or Omsk Railroad* as far as Omsk. The urgent need for a new line east of Krasnoufimsk, running per¬ haps as far as Omsk, is emphasized by the fact that, according to information communicated to the recent Congress of Ural Mine Owners, the captains of the Ural Mining Industry were planning to get from the Kolchugino deposit** up to 60,000,000 poods of coal and coke for their plants. Consequently, there arises a need for a new exit from Siberia. The problem of open¬ ing such an exit from Omsk to Yekaterinburg can be solved in various ways. We have the alternative of either laying a new road between Omsk and Yekaterinburg or crossing the Ural and connecting with the new road—with the Krasnoufimsk- Kostroma line, which is being planned here. In case this plan is found to be too expensive, it will be necessary to lay second tracks. For this purpose it will be most advisable to select not the Tyumen-Omsk but the Omsk-Kurgan line. Then a new line might be constructed from Kurgan to Shadrinsk, and the Shadrinsk-Sinarskaya section would form an exit for this line in the direction of Yekaterinburg.. It is immaterial which of these two plans will be adopted. The essential fact is that Siberia is in need of a new exit. Thus, having analyzed the conditions prevailing on the Northern lin^s, we arrive at the conclusion that it is necessary either to lay a second track or to build a new railway between Omsk and Petrograd, a distance of nearly 3,000 versts. The con¬ siderations adduced above show, beyond the possibility of a doubt, that the second solution should be preferred. 5.—AlexandreV Gai-Charjui. Turning to the new railroads which could relieve our net, it is necessary to mention the congested sections of the Tashkent Railway. In 1913, because of poor crops, the Tashkent line did not work intensely. But if we study the work of this line for a number of years, we see that as early as 1909 the road had con¬ siderable difficulties in handling its freight. We must further take into consideration the natural growth of traffic and also the fact that we are building new railways in Middle Asia ; for in- * The main Siberian trunk line is administratively divided into two "roads"—the Omsk-road, westward from Novonikolaevsk, and the Tomsk-road, eastward from the same point. ** In Tomsk Province, in Central Siberia. 26 stance, thè Bokhara line, and short branches to the Tashkent line, thus adding to the tonnage the latter is called upon to handle. Under these conditions the need for a second track on this line is highly probable. Should, however, a new road be preferred to the second track, it will be found that a line connect¬ ing Alexandrov Gai with Charjui would serve the purpose. This road figures in several plans of railroad construction. As it will serve the mineral oil wells of the North-Caspian region, it will be of immense local significance. It will, furthermore, serve the Khiva oasis and handle part of the cotton freight, which will be attracted by the new Bokhara Railway. 6.—Vinnitza-Starokcnstantinov-Cracow. Finally, if we turn to the territory drained by the Vistula and to the South-Western region, we notice that here too the entire net from Kovel to Strzemeshchitze and from Warsaw to Granitza and Skernevitzy, and further on to Gherby, was con¬ gested as early as 1913. An excellent unloading road would be a line running parallel to the existing Vistula Railways in the di¬ rection Vinnitza-Starokonstantinov-Tomashev and further either across the territory of Poland toward Sandomir or, as we hope, across Galicia as far perhaps as Cracow. This new railroad is absolutely necessary for the country. As far back as ten years ago the Government was requested to authorize its construction, but for purely strategic reasons the permission was not granted. Of course, in speaking of this road we must remember that we may have to deal with a new factor : when Galicia will become our territory, the powerful double-track trunk line which exists here will in the future draw away part of the freight now handled by the North-Western Kovel line. But the region is so rich, the population so relatively dense (120 people per square verst) that a new railraad will be found necessary. 7.—Strzemezhitze-W arsaw. Finally, as the last unloading railway let us mention the Strzemezhitze-Warsaw line. It will shorten the line of commu¬ nication between the highly developed industrial regions of Poland and facilitate the export of Dombrovo coal into Warsaw -and further.* * Under present conditions, when it is difficult to expect to receive English coal in northwestern Russia, this line becomes of prominent importance not only for Poland, but for Russia. 27 We have enumerated here seven new railroads which would reinforce our system and assist it in coping with the traffic, which has greatly increased in late years.- Naturally, previous plans of railroad construction did not provide for some of these lines. Any other scheme of railroad construction which may be elaborated in the future will have to take into account the most outstanding feature of our railroad practice in recent years ; namely, the con¬ gestion of our railway net and its abnormally intense work. PIONEER RAILROADS The construction of the roads of the second category ; i. e., local railways, is guided by other principles. Their role and the degree to which they are necessary to develop and secure the eco¬ nomic welfare of the country are admirably characterized in General Petrov's work, entitled "Report on the Development of the Russian Railway Net," St. Petersburg, 1912. (Volume XC of the proceedings of the "Special High Commission for the In¬ vestigation of Railroading in Russia.") Among these lines we may distinguish the following groups : (1) Pioneer roads; that is, those which are intended to serve new territories and introduce new freights and values into the railroad » system ; (2) Roads binding urban centers either among them¬ selves or with regions whose products can be made to enter the circulation of commodities only by laying a railroad line for them; and finally, (3) Feeding lines intended for a more or less narrow task of serving definite interests. It must be pointed out, first of all, that there are numerous regions in Russia which in themselves, irrespective of area and population, deserve to be provided with local railways, railways perhaps of a simplified type. 1.—Roads to Administrative Centers and Individual Towns. In fact, every administrative center—these are so numerous in our country, and many of them are far removed from railroad lines—as well as every inhabited place with a sufficient industrial and trading population, even if not officially named a city, in it¬ self fully justifies the construction of a branch line, if even of a technically imperfect type. Consequently, one of our tasks is to ascertain which of our urban centers are capable of development and, therefore, eligible for a branch, railway. 28 For this purpose we have drawn a map on which the urban centers which have at present no railroads are marked with aster¬ isks and circles. This map contains all the administrative centers as well as towns and hamlets with a population exceeding 10,000, which are situated at a considerable distance from a railroad. Their number us very high. There are districts in the Govern¬ ment of Voronezh, below the city of Bobrovo, on the River Don, where there are many villages with a population exceeding 10,000. The same situation prevails in some districts of the Govern¬ ment of Taurida, situated on the River Bug, also in the Govern¬ ment of Stavropol and in Trans-Caucasia, i. e., in very rich re¬ gions. Naturally, such regions where the population is crowded in definite points deserve either to have branch railroads termin¬ ating at their main centers constructed, or that the trunk lines in such regions should be projected through these centers. Thus, a new task is set to the statistical study of Russia. In addition to the natural resources of the various regions and the distribution of the population over them, we must also study the grouping of the population and its gravitation to definite centers. Such a study will be of especial value in planning the route of the railroads, for the Government usually has to deal with a great many local requests coming from cities and individuals which often exclude each other. 2.—Routes Serving Unexploited Resources. The second guiding principle for the construction of such railroads as will attract most new freight is based on the study of the natural resources and productive forces of individual locali¬ ties, for it is possible to get freight only where this freight exists in a potential state. If we discover, for instance, deposits of min¬ eral oil at Ukhta and in the Trans-Caspian region at Emba, it is necessary to consider the construction of a railroad for the ex¬ ploitation and export of this valuable material. We must assist our cotton industry, even if only by branch lines, for without them the expenses incurred by the State for the irrigation, ameli¬ oration and colonization of our middle Asiatic possessions will hardly achieve their purpose. Finally, a new problem has re¬ cently arose in the south; namely, the lack of sugar beets for our sugar industry. A close study of the situation shows that the absence of branch lines is one of the causes which hinder the 29 growth of sugar beet plantations. Thus, the planning of local roads or branch lines must be based on the study of local natural resources. In this respect, the Ural region presents a special interest, as I have already had occasion to mention. The Ural Region, The Ural region possesses a great number of industrial plants which have been there for centuries. Most of them situ¬ ated far away from railroad routes, for in former times the ten¬ dency was to hug the rivers as the best local means of communi¬ cation. It is a matter of national importance to build branch lines which would serve these plants. At present, much has al¬ ready been done to prepare the ground for this work. A special corporation is being formed for the construction of Ural branch lines. In addition, the Treasury, in its special investigation of the branch lines of the Perm R. R. has devoted a sufficient amount of time to the Ural region. In the data regarding the tonnage carried by the Perm R. R. during the period 1909-1913, we find indirect information about the growth of the Ural indus¬ tries. This growth is characterized by the following figures : Tonnage of the Perm R. R. in Nature of Freight thousands of ooods 1909 1911 1912 1913 1. Iron and Chrome Ore 10,330 16,478 25,187 26,777 2. Iron and Steel 9,025 10,040 12,372 12,481 3. Cast Iron 7,566 12,955 13,472 13,478 4. Sheet Iron 562 1,170 1,406 1,567 5. Coal i 21,048 18,179 26,295 25,270 6. Charcoal 2,255 3,063 4,967 6,483 7. Copper and Latten 239 503 755 826 8. Salt 2,236 2,494 2,469 2,706 Total. ... ! 53,261 64,883 86,923 89,858 -}- 69%, or per year -j- 17% This data shows that with each year a larger amount of mining products, the output of which is steadily growing, was carried by the Perm R. R. In this connection, it may be observed 30 that the markets for the products of the Ural industries are grow¬ ing larger and more secure throughout the Empire. The information at our disposal about the development of the mining industries in the Ural region in recent years war¬ rant our belief that nowhere in Russia will branch lines be more beneficial for the general quickening of the region, and for the supplying of the trunk lines "with new freight, than in the Ural region. In addition to branch lines, this region stands in need of a number of trunk lines, both export and local. At present three railroads are already in the process of construction ; namely—the Northeast Ural R. R. (Yekaterinburg-Tavda-Ala- payevsk-Saitkovo-Bogdanovich) ; the West Ural R. R. (Lysva Foundry-Berdyauch), and the important Kazan-Yekaterinburg line. Authorization has also been granted for the construction of the Orsk-Troitzk* and Upper UraU"^ (Berdyauch-Kiskan) lines in southern Ural. Southern Ural. To give free exit to the freights of the south Ural region westward it is desirable to build a Troitzk-Verkneuralsk-Ster- litamak-Buzuluk line, "with a branch to Abdulino, and also a road running from the Magnet Mountain southward, perhaps as far as the Sara station of the Orenburg-Orsk line, which is now being built. This road would serve that part of the southern Ural which is most fertile and rich in mineral wealth. The East. The roads which are either being constructed or planned in the East of European Russia will also facilitate the exit from the Ural and from Siberia. Such is the recently opened Chishmy- Bugulma line, the mileage reducing value of which will be fully revealed only with the completion of the bridge across the Volga River at Simbirsk.f Such is also the Orenburg-Ufa line, con¬ struction of which has been authorized, and which it is necessary to extend northward to Perm or Kungur. The line will be the * In 1915 the construction of 122 versts of the line from the Troitzk station to the Kartaly station in the reg-ion of the Poltava coal deposits, was begun. According to investigations made in 1915, the Troitzk Railroad Co. considers the Kartaly-Miass line would be the most advantageous way of carrying out the plan of an upper Ural road, t Now already completed. 31 pioneer road serving the fertile and rich country,—black earth in the south, forests throughout the region. The other railroads which are being planned are : an Orsk-Iletzk, and Uralsk- Tzaritzyn as an exit from the Ural and the south Siberian trunk line to the south and southeast of European Russia; and a Samara-Nikolayevsk-Balakovo line of local significance. The other roads of the east and the region lying beyond the Volga River, such as the Orenburg-Kazan-Galitch R. R. (Trans-Volga) which is a pioneer road running across the rich land ; and the Kinel-Simbirsk-Nizhni (Arzamas)-Yermolino line, which is a part of the Petrograd-Tashkent trunk line, will serve as an exit from middle Asia and the vast eastern railroad-less tracts of land to Petrograd and northern Asia. The South-East. The following two roads will form the continuation of the above enumerated exits from Siberia, the Ural, and the east : (1) Saratov-Millerovo line, which connects the Volga River basin and the region lying beyond the Volga with the Donetz basin, and which it is necessary to construct first; (2) the Saratov- Kramatorsk (Slaviansk) line, a road of great local importance which, if extended from Kramatorskaya as far as Tzarevokon- stantinovka or Alexandrovsk will bind the Trans-Volga region with the Black Sea and Azov ports. For the purpose of connecting the Caucasus and Trans- Caucasus with the central region and Petrograd, the following lines are planned: (1) The Perevalnaia R. R. (Tiflis-Sleptzovo with an extension to the Holy Cross) ; (2) the Holy Cross- Kozlov line, already approved by the Commission of New Rail¬ ways; and (3) the Vladikavkaz-Tzaritzyn line, which will com¬ pete with the preceding line. The vast grain belt of the Northern Caucasus, Don province, and the Voronezh, Tambov, and Astra¬ chan provinces will gravitate to the latter two railroads. The Caucasus. Similarly fertile regions of the Northern Caucasus, which are deprived of means of communication, demand the construc¬ tion of the Torgovaya-Divnoye, Divnoye-Astrakhan and Grachi- Byeloryechenskya lines. Besides, the latter road would open up the Caucasus for the Donetz coal and make it possible to exploit new coal deposits on both banks of the Don River. 32 The South-Western region must be connected with the Crimea, the Black Sea coast and Trans-Caucasia by the shortest route. For this purpose, a trunk line Tuapse-Kerch (Bagerovo)- Jankoi-Kherson (Nikolayev)-Uman is being planned. Parts of this line are already in existence or in the process of construction. In and by themselves, they will have an enormous local sig¬ nificance. I To develop the mining and timber resources of the Caucasus and to establish health resorts there, it is necessary to build a number of lines, of which many are already in the process of construction, while others, for instance, the Yekaterinodar- Kluchevaya, the Svanet and Tkvarcheli Railroads, are being planned. The Crimea. To keep in the country the tens and hundreds of million roubles which were yearly exported into foreign health resorts, it is necessary to take the necessary measures to develop and establish our own health resorts. For this purpose it is impera¬ tive, first of all, to give a good deal of attention to the Crimean railroads. There has recently been opened the Sarabuz-Yevpa- toria line with a branch to Saki, and an authorization has been granted for the construction of the so-called Crimean Railway between Sebastopol and Alushta, which it is proposed to extend as far as Theodosia. Plans have been framed for the building of two lines : Simferopol-Old Crimea-Theodosia and Simferopol- Alushta. Southern Russia. A Yekaterinoslav-Aleksandrovsk line should be built to straighten the Orsha-Vorozhba road leading to the Southern ports, for which permission has been obtained. The Kursk- Kremenchug road, crossing as it does fertile and densely popu¬ lated regions, which possess developed industries, especially the sugar industry, will lighten the task of the neighboring con¬ gested railway lines by handling a portion of the freight moving from the South-West to Moscow and beyond. The South-Western Region. Immediate railroad development is a matter of vital impor¬ tance for the densely populated and wealthy South-West. There have recently been opened the Odessa-Bakhmach and Podolian 33 Railroads, and a number of lines are being built in Bessarabia. , A trunk line between Grishino and Rovno is also in process of construction. A whole system of short lines has been authorized, and the laying of some of them begun. The following two lines should be given attention first: (1) The Kiev-Zhitomir-Shepetovka (or Starokonstantinov)-Yampol- Krasno line, which will have a great local and strategic value ; the construction of the Shepetovka-Yampol section with a branch to Zborach has already begun ; (2) the Kiev-Kishinev trunk line ; when its extension from Kishinev to the Bessarabskaia Station is built, this road will form a link between Moscow, Kiev and Petrograd with the Rumanian frontier (Reni), in a direction leading straight to Konstantinopol. Petrograd will be connected with Reni by the Vitebsk-Zhlobin-Korosten-Birzula or the Zhlobin-Chernigov-Kiev line. In the Southwest we need the following roads : Akkerman- Odessa, to connect Bessarabia with Odessa ; Dolinskaya-Uman, to serve the surrounding fertile region, to export the ore and unload the neighboring lines; Tzvetkovo-Zhashkov, to replace the second track on the Tzvetkovo-Fastov section. The Western Region. This region needs mostly strategic roads, so that the experi¬ ence of war alone can furnish the basis on which it will be possible to determine the scale of railroad construction neces¬ sary here. At present, the construction of the following lines appears desirable: (1) Ryazan-Warsaw ; (2) Podolsk-Kovel ; (3) Polotzk-Osipovichi-Zhitkovichi-Novograd-Volynsk, which is the extension of the Ostrov-Polotzk line now being built ; (4) Oryol-Korosten ; and (5) Kalkuny-Kovno. When the war is over, some of these lines will, no doubt, be needed for economic reasons, too, as outlets from the central provinces into Galicia and Rumania. The Orsha-Mitava line will serve local needs and will also form an extension of the Donetz-Baltic trunk line,—the Nizhnednieprovsk-Orsha section of which has already been authorized. Thus, we see that the degree to which the railroad needs of a certain locality are met can be determined by three different methods: (1) Graphically, by means of maps showing the lo- 34 calities deprived of railroads ; (2) by means of special investiga¬ tions of the productivity of individual districts ; (3) theoretically, as in the above-mentioned works, especially those of Stoltzmann and Gen. Petrov, who took the work of the railroads, expressed in pood-versts or gross income per verst, as the measure of the need in railways. The coefficients of productivity obtained by one of these methods furnish a sufficient basis for the determina¬ tion of the order in which the railroad needs of various localities should be satisfied. In a peculiar position are those regions of our country, for which no railroads have hitherto been planned. To this category belongs, first of all, the North of European Russia. It is the recent events alone that have forced us to turn our attention to that vast region and hurriedly to inaugurate the construction of the Murman Railroad from Petrozavodsk to Soroka and from Kandalaksha to the Murman coast of the Arctic Ocean. The North of European Russia. The North possesses enormous natural resources, namely forests, fish and furred animals, which are absolutely untouched. The problem of how to exploit the Northern forests is a matter of national importance. Our forests are fast disappearing, and the prices for timber are constantly soaring. The prices of sleepers and firewood are at present incredibly high. Naturally, the limited utilization of our boundless forests in the North, which are well within our reach, is a serious defect in the system of our national economy. To change this situation, it is impera¬ tive to provide the region with a number of railways. The labor and capital necessary for the production of new values and the exploitation of the local natural resources will follow in the wake of the railway lines. Now, more than ever, is it important to build timber carrying trunk lines. In virtue of,the political and economical situation created by the war, trade relations with England will be extended. The end of the war will usher in a period of building on an unprecedented scale, and create an un¬ limited market for all sorts of construction materials. Besides, the export of timber will improve our balance of trade and form a considerable source of income for the Treasury. This is espe¬ cially important in view of the growth of our national debt and the necessity of paying interest on it, mostly to foreign investors. 35 Archangel as an Export Harbor for Northern and Eastern Russia. But the role of the North is not limited to the supplying of timber. If we turn our attention to the geographic location of the seas in the North we notice that, for many sections of Russia, Archangel is the nearest export harbor. And yet, at the present time, it is mainly the Western ports—Petrograd, Riga and Reval—that are becoming the chief gateways for the export of Siberian grain. This fact became particularly manifest with the elimination of the so-called Cheliabinsk tariff "perelom" or frontier.* In the past the tonnage of Siberian grain exported through the above mentioned ports amounted to about 3 or 4 million poods, but in 1913 it was already from 9 to 13 million. If we consider the markets of Siberia or of the East and their gravitation toward ports according to their geographic location, it appears that, with the construction of an adequate railroad, both Eastern Russia and the whole of Siberia might be 400 to 500 versts nearer to Archangel than to the Western ports. The very fact that the White Sea is nearest our boundless East— a region so much in need of exporting arteries—gives it a certain prominence. The only question is, whether it is possible to transform Archangel into a port which could take the place of the Western seaports; whether it is at all possible to establish conditions in Archangel under which this port might successfully compete in export with the ports of the Baltic. At present the outlook at Archangel, it would appear, is not very bright. The Perm-Kotlas R. R. Was constructed for the express purpose of directing the Siberian grain via Archangel, thus giving it free access to the sea by way of combined railway and water traffic, but the expectations have not been justified. Grain was not shipped via Kotlas in the expected quantities. Only in 1909, when the crops were exceptionally good and when all the roads *Our grain rates are differential, that is, the average pood-verst pay¬ ment is gradually lowering with the growth of the length of transportation. The unique exception was for the Siberian grain for which the differential did not exist, and the payment was calculated along the general rate differential in two. First, the price of transport from the point of shipm«.nt to Tcheliabinsk was counted, and then from Tcheliabinsk to the seaport. Both figures were added and in this way the final cost of trans¬ portation received. It is easy to understand that this figure became greater than if it would be calculated uniformly along the formula of the grain rate differential. The aim of this regulation was to preserve the grain production of European Russia from the competition of Siberian grain. Practically it resulted in forming of a kind of internal frontier, internal custom, in Tcheliabinsk. Now this regulation don't exist more. —Translator. 36 and Baltic ports were choked, the Kotlas road handled 9 mil¬ lion poods of Siberian grain. The other years the quantity was considerably smaller, ranging from 3 to 5 million poods. The question arises : How is this phenomenon to be ac¬ counted for? Was this situation caused by the inherent defects of Archangel as a port, or by some other circumstance? A close scrutiny of this question has shown that the main cause lay not in the defects of the port of Archangel, but in the conditions of the Siberian grain trade. At Kotlas the very equipment for the handling of grain was inadequate and, besides, the Northern Dvina is available for navigation only during a small part of the year. The conditions of the grain trade are such that the grain reaches Kotlas at the time when the Northern Dvina already begins to freeze and navigation on it ceases, so that the grain and the capital it represents must be storaged at Archangel for nearly 9 months and so bear the additional expenses and loss connected with such storage. Of course, this peculiarity of the grain export via Kotlas-Archangel means an additional ex¬ pense which the grain trade could not stand. The Vologda-Archangel Line and Its Shortcomingsi. As to the other outlet, that is, the Vologda-Archangel line, it, too, proves inadequately adapted for export traffic. Here traffic involved a change to a narrow gauge road. Besides, this line terminates not at Archangel but at the opposite shore, which is poorly adapted for the unloading and storing of freights. A survey of the port of Archangel shows that the so-called Lapomin Bay, 40 miles north of the city of Archangel, is free from ice nearly 9 months in the year. Freezing and icebergs hinder navigation mainly in the neck of the White Sea, but this at a time which does not coincide with the period when the Baltic ports are ice-bound. Under such circumstances, if a railroad were constructed to the open sea and if the port of Archangel were adequately equipped, it would hardly differ in its natural conditions from the ports of the Baltic. In any case, 9 months of free navigation is in itself such an important factor in the export trade that it cannot be ignored, especially since we have no ocean ports at all. For this reason we must see that at least a part of the Siberian transport is directed to the White Sea. In addition to this, the port of Archangel is the best possible port for the export of timber, and it may become a world center 37 of timber trade. Already at present tens of millions of poods of timber are shipped there along rivers, and it is at Archangel that our principal foreign timber trade is concentrated. The enumerated conditions guaranteeing the possibility of developing our North are quite sufficient for us to begin thinking about a network of railroads which, in addition to supplying the needs of our timber resources, might at the same time serve as an artery for Siberian freight. Several such roads have been projected. 1. The Ob-White Sea Railroad. One of the first projects was the so-called Ob-White Sea Railroad. It is planned along the following route: From Arch¬ angel via IJkhta to Ob and by a separate branch line to the net at the Nadezhdinsky works. This road has been considered by the Commission of New Railroads, and has been found necessary. 2. The Kama-Pechora Railroad. The second project of the Kama-Pechora railway line has also been approved by the Commission. This line is only of local importance and, if extended to Archangel, would coincide with the Ob-White Sea line. 3. The Kotlas-Soroki Railroad. It is further quite essential to connect the Kotlas-Soroki line with the Murman Railroad, which is now being built, in order to create a direct outlet to the Murman Coast for Siberian freights. Of course, in the future, when a trunk line is constructed to the port of Archangel which, after all cannot be open all year round, it will be very advantageous to have an outlet to the Murman port, which is probably the only ice-free port in the Empire. And since the territory served by such a trunk line from Kotlas or Veliky Ustiug to Shenkursk and beyond will also yield large quantities of timber freight, this line will, in all probability prove completely * self-sustaining. 4. Petrograd-Siberia. Finally, it is quite timely to raise the question of connecting Petrograd, the Finnish border, and the Baltic ports with Siberia by the shortest possible route. A trunk line Svir-Vytegra-Kotlas- Samarovskoye (Ob-Irtysh)-Tomsk and à branch line from the Vazhiny Station of the Olonetsk R. R. to the Finnish frontier via Serdobol would serve the purpose. The latter branch line, by establishing a second link between the Finnish Railroads and 38 the Russian railway system will, besides, make it possible to direct a considerable portion of the freights past the overbur¬ dened Petrograd junction. This circumstance, with the resump¬ tion of commercial relations with Sweden, and through her with England, deserves particular attention. The line is necessary not only as a new and shortest outlet for Siberia to the Murman region and the ports of the Baltic Sea, but also for the develop¬ ment of the industry and the exploitation of the natural resources of the vast territory served by the line, and also as a convenient channel for the export of Siberian freights into the world markets. < Siberia. Siberia, too, is a country as yet insufficiently provided with railroads. But in the very near future Siberia will get a con¬ siderable number of new lines. These are as follows : the Amur, Altay, Kolchugino, Kulundino, and Achinsk-Minussinsk railways. These roads were authorized mainly at the suggestion of the Migration Department. The construction of the South-Siberian Trunk Line has further been authorized. It, too, was laid out as suggested by the Migration Department. The other lines which have been authorized are: the Verkhneudinsk-Kyakhta line, the Kolchugino-Kuznetsk-Telbes line, which forms the ex¬ tension of the Kolchugino R. R. The Commission on New Rail¬ ways has authorized the Lena line (Tulun-Ust-Kut) and the Tavda-Tobolsk line. This year a preliminary economic survey will be made for a line running from Port Ayan on the Pacific Ocean to Nelkan. It is also certain that to secure the financial stability of the new Siberian railroad corporations it will be necessary to develop the railway systems they operate so as to adapt them for the exploitation of the natural resources of the country. Thus, the Achinsk-Minusinsk Railway Cotnpany proposes to build the fol¬ lowing lines : 1. Minussinsk-Sayan Ridge-Bielotsarsk. This will be the shortest route to Mongolia with its great wealth of raw material, fish and mineral resources. 2. Orositelny-Kuznetsk. This line will cross the fertile Bey Steppe, which is quite fit for colonization, and reach the Abakan Iron Works located in a territory rich in timber and ore. 39 3. Achinsk-Yeniseisk. This road, too, will serve a region rich in resources and potential productivity. The Altay Railway Company is planning the following lines : 1. A line to Zmeinogorsk for the purpose of developing the well known local mining industries. 2. A line from Barnaul via Pavlodar to Kolkaman, which might serve as an outlet for the freights of the fertile grain- growing regions, rich in coke-yielding coal, zinc, and lead, and connect them with the South-Siberian Trunk Line. The exten¬ sion of this line from Bayunov (Barnaul) to Kuznetsk by the Kolchugino Railway Corporation has also been authorized. Finally, the Kulundin Railway Company proposes to extend and develop the Tatarsk-Slavgorod line. The extension of this line in the direction of Semipalatinsk and Verny is necessary in order to connect Siberia with Central Asia and, via Semipalatinsk, with the Chinese frontier (to Buran and the Jungar Gates). The Company is also planning a line from Petropavlovsk to Kokche- tav, which it will also be logical to extend to Pishpek, Central Asia. Other desirable lines are as follows : An extension of the Troitsk R. R. from Kustanai to Kokchetav; a branch line from Shadrinsk to Kurgan, and the feeding lines : Shadrinsk-Mishkino- Zverinogolovskaya and Nazyvayevka-Tukalinsk-Tara. It appears from this survey of the railway needs of Siberia that most of the enumerated lines are needed for the exploitation and export of the country's wealth, especially mining products. The question of establishing an independent steel industry in Siberia has now become particularly urgent. It should be stated, however, that at least for the immediate future Siberia is sufficiently provided with railroads. In the com¬ ing years, in view of the fact that there is a great deal of most urgent construction work to be done, it would be wise, perhaps, to proceed at a slower pace in the building of new railways in Siberia. The Plan of the Net and Its History. Turning to the problem of planning the development of our railroad net as a whole, it should be stated that at the very outset of our intense railroad construction, that is, after 1908, it was perceived that the work cannot go on without a plan, with¬ out mapping out a definite scheme of railroad construction. But we did not succeed in solving the problem at one stroke. 40 In 1909, a Commission under the presidency of late Engineer O. A. Struve was formed, which recommended a number of lines, for close investigation, but" not for construction. The Com¬ mission proposed that a mileage of 19,000 versts should be in¬ vestigated: 4,180 versts in 1911, 4,920 in 1912, 3,890 in 1913, and 6,050 after 1913. The results of the investigations of this Commission were brought before the legislative institutions. It was simultaneously asked that the program of investigation should be approved, and appropriations made by the Ministry of Ways of Communication for investigations and economic re¬ search. The legislative institutions failed to consider these projects. Nevertheless, whenever appropriations for investiga¬ tions were solicited, the Ministry of Ways of Communication generally was guided by the program elaborated by the Commis¬ sion. At present, nearly all the lines planned by vStruve's Com¬ mission have either been built, recommended for construction, or covered by the plans of investigations conducted by the Min¬ istry.of Ways of Communication. Let us now consider the plan elaborated by General Petrov, which is perhaps the only scheme which may properly be termed a construction plan. The Special High Commission compiled in 1912 a report about the development of the Russian railroad net. The report included a tentative plan of the development of the Russian railroad system for the next five years, 1912-1917. The lines planned fell into three groups: (1) Trunk lines, neces¬ sary to improve communication along the main trade routes of the country ; (2) trunk lines intended to do away with the isola¬ tion of vast regions and to make them a part of the general economic life of the country; and, finally (3), branches which are necessary to serve the country. The mileage of the projected lines was as follows : Lines of the first group 19,200 versts Lines of the second group 8,350 " Lines of the third group 10,025 37,575 versts As for the order in which the lines were to be built, the following program was worked out: In 1912, it was proposed to build 5,360 versts; in 1913, 5,290 versts; in 1914, 6,470; and after 1914, 10,530 versts. 41 In 1913, the Ministry of Ways of Communication formed a special Interdepartmental Commission which held a number of sessions under the presidency of Engineers Wurzel and Lomonos- soil. This Commission proposed that during the period of 1914 to 1917 a number of lines, aggregating a mileage of 22,165 versts, should be investigated. This Commission, just like the one headed by Struve, did not discuss actual railroad construction. It merely recommended certain railroad lines for thorough inves¬ tigation in the near future. Finally, early in 1914, the Department of Railroad Affairs formed an Inter-departmiental Board under the presidency of N. E. Ghiatzintoff, Director of the Department. This board was to elaborate a financial plan of railroad construction for the near future. The board completed its work in May, 1914, and recom¬ mended a number of new railroad lines for construction, aggre¬ gating a mileage of 27,450 versts, which were distributed over six years, as follows : In 1915, 12,830' versts ; in 1916, 6,150 versts ; in 1917, 3,967 versts; in 1918, 3,358 versts; in 1919, 1,370 versts; in 1920, 320 versts. It is interesting to put the follo'wing two questions with regard to planning our railroad construction. To what degree did the plans hitherto elaborated actually guide the activities of government institutions, and to what degree did the numerous lines, the construction of which has in late years been authorized, enter into the pre.viously elaborated plans? Unfortunately, the answer is not very encouraging. An ex¬ ceedingly large number of limes, permission for the construction of which has now been granted, is not mentioned in any of the plans hitherto worked out, not even in the most thorough plan which is connected with the name of General Petrov. The Vorozhba-rOrsha and Petrograd-Orel lines might be cited as an example. On the other hand, some of the lines which headed the list of urgently needed railroads given by General Petrov's plan are still neither built nor recommended for construction. Thus, for instance. General Petrov proposed to build in 1912 the following railroads: Voropondvo-Tiflis, Vilna-Moscow, Nizhny- Kungur, Uman-Kvaloni, Lena and South Siberian trunk line. Here is the present situation as regards these lines : The Uman- Tuapse line is only now (in 1916) being considered by the Com¬ mission on New Railroads ; the Voroponovo-Tiflis line was taken up in 1915 instead of in 1912, and the Commission preferred a 42 rival route, namely, the Kozlov-Slyeptzovo line ; The Vilna- Moscow line has not as yet been recommended for consideration, and the need for it, especially at present, should be discussed anew; the Nizhny-Kungur line was replaced by another road, the Kazan-Yekaterinburg line, the construction of which is well under ^vay; the Tuapse-Kvaloni line, now known as the Black Sea Railroad, is in the process of construction ; the Lena Railroad has been approved only early this year ; the South Siberian trunk line has been authorized but its construction will probably be delayed until th^ end of the war.* I shall not fatigue the reader by enumerating all the lines which are included in the less urgent groups of General Petrov's plan. I shall merely state that many of these lines, far from being constructed, failed to be considered. Nevertheless, this circum¬ stance does not indicate that the lines are not needed. It merely testifies to the fact that the policy of our railroad construction followed a different course than that recommended by the Special High Commission for the Investigation of Railroad Conditions in Russia. It is a notable fact that those lines were taken up first which were proposed by the existing companies and which were connected with the problem of postponing the redemption by the Treasury of the roads owned by those companies. Thus, for in¬ stance, the development of the Moscow-Vindava-Rybinsk Rail¬ road net by means of constructing the Orel-Petrograd and Smo¬ lensk-Yuryev lines, and the addition of the Vorozhba-Orsha, Novobyelitza-Chernigov and other lines to the Moscow-Kiev- Voronezh railroad were hurriedly taken up and authorized. Other lines owe their existence to the efforts of newly formed companies; for instance, the Troitzk company, which, in a very short period of time, planned and constructed a considerably ex¬ tensive railroad net in eastern Russia. It is necessary, however, to emphasize that most of the lines which figured in the plan of the High Commission are at present urgently needed. This plan, for instance, provided for the construction in 1914 of the Penza- Kharkov line which is still in project and which is one of the most urgently needed trunk lines. Nor shall I enumerate the lines which figure in the latest con¬ struction plan elaborated in the Inter-departmental Commission under the presidency of N. E. Ghiatzintoff. With the exception '•'The prediction was not justified; construction began early in 1918. 43 of the Kostroma-Krasnoufimsk line and the two northern rail¬ roads which are the result of most recent study, all the other lines cover all the projects of Ghiatzintoff. It is interesting to consider the expenditures involved in the construction of the railroads provided for in the five-year build¬ ing program. The Ghiatzintofif plan called for approximately 3,127 millions of roubles for new lines only. If to this we add the ex¬ penditures which it would be necessary to incur during the few years immediately following the five-year period to complete the constructions previously begun and to develop the existing lines we shall get the sum of 3,438 millions of roubles. This sum is dis¬ tributed so as to necessitate the expenditure of 2,848 millions of roubles during the period 1915-1919, or of 500 to 600 millions of roubles annually. The Scope of Possible Construction. Turning to the problem of the feasibility of this plan, we have first of all to face the following question : Is it possible, with the technical equipment of our country, aside from the financial aspect of the matter, to carry out this plan of railroad construc¬ tion? This is one of the most vital problems of the day, and it should be given a great deal of attention. The Board of Railroad Construction gave much thought to this matter, and, among other things, worked out a diagram showing the development of our railroad construction. If we consider the list of railroads which are now being built, we see that it involves sufficiently large figures. The mileage of annual construction is 12,000 to 15,000 versts. This, however, does not mean that we can con¬ struct as many versts yearly. It requires two or three years, and even more, to build a railroad. Therefore, to determine the actual mileage of annual construction, the following method was ap¬ plied: It was assumed that the aggregate mileage of construc¬ tion was distributed over the years of construction in proportion to the amount of capital expended during those years. The mile¬ age of construction calculated upon this basis shows a rather dis¬ couraging situation. In 1902 and the following three years, the construction mileage was respectively 1,670, 1,500, 1,630, 1,410 versts. Finally, in 1907, the mileage was as low as 340. Then it began to grow: in 1908 it was 510; in 1909—990; in 1910—1,490, etc., until in 1914 and in 1915 it reached 3,720 and 4,470 versts, respectively. 44 This amount must at present be considered the maximum. Business men and builders know how difficult it is at present to secure engineers and contractors for the construction work, and how far behind the mills are in filling their orders. Thus, from the standpoint of the practical feasibility of the construction plan, we have ample ground to doubt whether it will be possible to carry it out. The construction of many roads which have been found necessary may have to be postponed, while priority may be granted to those lines which will meet the vital needs of the country in agreement with the changed political and economic conditions. Therefore, it might be concluded that the plan of construc¬ tion is still subject to further elaboration. It must take into ac¬ count both the possibility of execution and the railroad needs of the country. The latest plan furnished by the Ghiatzintofif Inter¬ departmental Commission is nothing but a list of lines, which in some form or other were recommended for consideration and found necessary. The theoretical groundwork on which the re¬ ports of General Petrov and Struve are based, and which, in the present state of the theory of construction problems, must be recognized as correct, is absent in the latest plan of 1914. Conse¬ quently, the first thing to be done is to calculate anew the extent to which the country is served by railroads on the basis of those coefficients which have been established by previous investiga¬ tions. Furthermore, since the extreme congestion of our main trade routes has become, as I have shown above, exceedingly conspicuous, it is necessary that the lines intended to unload the existing railroads should be constructed first. Govemment and Private Construction. I shall now pass to the problem of Government and private railroad construction. This problem assuiiies an exceptional im¬ portance, in view of the fact that we are facing a vast and respon¬ sible task of building tens of thousands of versts of railroads cost¬ ing billions of roubles, and that we must carry it out in the shortest possible time. I shall not repeat the arguments advanced by the advocates of government and private railroad construction. They are suffi¬ ciently well known. Lately it has been the favorite topic of dis¬ cussion at the meetings of our Society. There is no doubt that 45 the problem 'of choosing between the two systems of construc¬ tion cannot be based on a comparison of the advantages of gov¬ ernment and private operation. The nature of the two groups of enterprises is so different that they bear no comparison. One is inclined to think that private and government railroad con¬ struction and operation should co-exist. Private railroads have done such great services to the country that their elimination is altogether out of the question. Private railroads have this indisputable advantage: that in disposing of their funds they can more extensively meet the needs of the country, develop auxiliary enterprises, provide for the wel¬ fare of their employes, and better select their administration. In this respect, some of the private railroad companies are models of railroad operation. It is, therefore, unwise to strive to elimi¬ nate private railroad enterprises. It must also be taken into ac¬ count that at this time, private initiative may perhaps be more successful in financing railroads than the State. At the same time, we cannot fail to take cognizance of sonie of the deficiencies of private railroading, which have in late years become evident. The first reproach that was advanced against private railroads was that they neglected passenger traffic. At present, this question has lost its acuteness, and we need no longer dwell on it. Consitruction of Branch Lines. But there is another drawback to private railroading which has not as yet been eliminated, and which cannot be eliminated without a corresponding modification of the laws regulating it. We mean the attitude of private railroads to the construction of branch lines. The problem of branch lines has recently assumed a great importance. A Society of Branch Lines has been formed. Its charter is highly peculiar and introduces entirely new prin¬ ciples into our railroading. It establishes the principle that the income of a branch line includes not only the income derived from traffic carried by the branch, but also from traffic on the adjacent trunk line; in other words, the adjacent railroad net participates in the income of the new enterprise. Although the charter of this company provides for branch lines built to privately owned railroads, there is not at present a single such branch line planned 46 or built. Naturally, no private railroad will consent to diminish its own income by yielding a portion of it to the adjacent branch line ; so that the Society of Branch Lines is at present doing its work exclusively in connection with Government railroads. The construction of branch lines with the obligation to return the value of the road has been extensively practised in recent years. This method would appear to be the best method of equipping our railroad system with feeding branch lines. Never¬ theless, we notice that the government and private railroads diiïer completely in their attitude toward this method of attracting the necessary capital for the construction of branch lines. While the Government exhibits a tendency to use this method exten¬ sively and liberally, the attitude of the private railroads is rather negative., In late years, the Government has developed the prac¬ tice of granting various privileges tending to improve the con¬ ditions of their existence. For example, they were granted the right of getting credit not only for the new freight, but also for all the freights forwarded by the branch line. Participation in income is given not only on one adjacent road, but on several Government roads. Finally, interest on the capital invested is added to that sum. Private railroads are reluctant to undertake the construction of branch lines on these conditions. There are cases where pri¬ vate companies did not consent to take over branch lines con¬ structed by their owners, even without the obligation to return their value. Such an attitude of the private railroads toward branch lines should be counted against private railroading, es¬ pecially now when, as I have already mentioned, it is planned to build an extensive net of branch lines intended to serve indi¬ vidual localities. The plan was first worked out by General Petrov. At his initiative, it was extensively discussed in the Dis¬ trict Committees, and at present there are projects for the con¬ struction of branch lines aggregating a mileage of 3,000 versts. This entire net is closely connected with the Government rail¬ roads. Private railroads may build branch lines only when their charters are amended accordingly, and since these roads mostly yield small profits, the attitude of the private company toward them is negative. This negative attitude of private companies came to light in the discussions of separate branch lines by the District Committees. 47 The Normal Charter and Its Modifications in Connection With Future Tasks. When we speak of private railroad construction, we have, of course, in view the normal charter of private companies which is at present the predominating type. The charter of one company differs from that of another in non-essentials only. In view of the fact that private railroad construction is likely to develop ex¬ tensively in the future, it is important to settle the following point : Are the principles underlying the normal company charter at present inflexible, or are there other forms of relationship be¬ tween Government and private companies which would reduce the deficiencies of private railroading which have been recently pointed out? It seems to me that the normal charter cannot be at present considered as something immovable. In view of the altogether unusual scale of construction which appears imperative, it might be practicable in each separate case freely to allow some modifi¬ cations of the existing charter. Private companies, I think, should welcome such modifications. For example, many of the projected trunk lines which we now need will no doubt yield con¬ siderable profits. Therefore, if we accept private railroad con¬ struction in the case of these trunk lines, the period before re¬ demption may be, of course, reduced to ten or twelve years. At present we have already some actual projects in this connection. The pre-redemption period is not anything inflexible. It should be lower depending upon the probable profitableness of the line. The Government should greatly value the right of redemption, because the moment of redemption is the only occasion on which the Government can make demands upon the private company regarding the extension of the road, the construction of branch lines, and the like. The reduction of the redemption term is ex¬ ceedingly valuable and exceedingly necessary. Furthermore, since the unwillingness of private companies to construct branch lines is one of the deficiencies of private rail¬ roading, the Government, in granting charters, should stipulate definite obligations on the part of the companies regarding the construction of branch lines. In the charter of the Vladikavkaz Railroad, the Government retains the right to demand that the Company build any feeding lines indicated by the Government. Many private companies will not oppose a similar clause under certain conditions. 48 A new principle has made its appearance in recent years. Experience has shown that private corporations, notably pros¬ perous, are not eager to extend their roads if this extension threatens their profits. At present, some private companies so¬ licit the inclusion of some profitable sections of the projected railways into their system, and express a willingness to obligate themselves, when the gross income reaches a certain sum, to build at the bidding of the Government a definite amount of mile¬ age, even if the new line is not likely to yield any profit. Our country contains vast regions which entirely lack railroad facili¬ ties, and where railway lines, if built, would no doubt be profitless for some time. Under these conditions, the right of the Govern¬ ment to prescribe to the companies what railroads they should build will prove exceedingly valuable. This is the new principle which it is desirable to apply. Nevertheless, in speaking of the new clauses which it is de¬ sirable to insert into the charters to promote the interests of the Government and the country in the operation by private com¬ panies of their enterprises, it is necessary not to lose sight of the fact that these new rights of the Government will prejudice the interests of the private companies as commercial enterprises. It is necessary to take into consideration the fact that the present status of the money market is not at at all favorable to large in¬ vestments in railroad construction. A comparatively short while ago, the banks willingly financed railroad enterprises, hoping thus to attract deposits. At present, however, conditions have apparently changed ; the banks no longer need large money reserves, and railroad enterprises will hardly prove alluring to the banks. It is obvious, then, that it will be necessary to find new conditions which would make railroad construction more attractive than other commercial en¬ terprises. Such measures are already being taken. Thus, the Govern¬ ment has recently allowed a more favorable ratio between the capital stock and the amount of bond investment, reducing it from 1:9 to 1:12, and even 1 ;19. At the same time, the rate of in¬ terest on the bonds guaranteed by the Government is raised in agreement with the present conditions of the money market. Other measures may have to be taken. It has been pointed out above that vast regions, rich in natural resources, which lie 49 dormant and completely uninhabited, stretch in the north of Eu¬ ropean Russia, in Siberia, and in Central Asia. Here the prob¬ lems of railroad construction are closely connected with the prob¬ lems of colonization and the inauguration of new industries for the purpose of utilizing the natural resources. These regions are sorely in need of pioneer railways. Here the question arises whether it may not be possible to grant the free use of land and timber and mining resources in connection with railroad conces¬ sions. We in Russia may have to resort to the method which was tried in America. But this new principle is applicable only to the border prov¬ inces. As far as the railroads in the interior of the country are concerned, it will be necessary to find other means of rendering railroad enterprises more profitable. It may be perhaps found advisable to increase the share of profit that goes to the railroad company. A way may also be found to interest the railroad en¬ terprises in possible economies in construction. In general, the charter should not be regarded as something final and not subject to change. On the contrary, it should be¬ come the object of a great deal of creative effort; it should be capable of adapting itself to the varied conditions of our coun¬ try and to the changing aspects of the times. Another vital problem is the combination of private com¬ panies into larger units. Lately, a large number of small com¬ panies have come into being, which is hardly a desirable phe- . nomenon. Fusion companies are desirable, for they reduce the ex¬ penses for management and administration and lead to the for¬ mation of economic units, which are stronger and possess a greater store of vitality. But the application of the principle of enlargement of small companies is hindered by the fact that within their localities there is not sufficient room for the growth of these companies. Hence arose the idea of combining com¬ panies operating in different regions and of entrusting thern with the construction of railroads in different localities. The realiza¬ tion of this idea is quite possible and would be very beneficial for the development of our net. Given, further, that peculiarity of our country which neces¬ sitates the construction of pioneer lines, which, while profitless in themselves greatly increase the profit yielded by the system as a whole, it may be advisable to apply to newly authorized trunk 50 lines, the principle of adding the income derived from traffic on the existing railways ; the principle formulated in the charter of the Society of Branch Lines. Suppose we build in a roadless country ; e. g., Siberia, a railway like the South-Siberian Railroad, which while first profitless will give the whole railroad net a large income. It seems that the principle of distributing these profits among the old and the new roads in a certain proportion could be applied here with great "success. Such a principle would possess much vitality. Finally, let me point out that these principles are not en¬ tirely new. They figure in various reports and presentations made in late years. A combination of these principles will un¬ doubtedly further the development of private railroading. I shall conclude my report by giving utterance to a heartfelt wish that our railroad construction may keep pace with that in¬ tense growth of the productivity of our country, which it has recently manifested, and that the present events which appar¬ ently threaten to arrest this growth may not prove destructive of both the productive forces of the country and the development of our railroad system. There is no reason to fear that the war will deprive the economic organism of our country of its vitality. On the contrary, unless-all signs fail, we shall after the war go through a period of economic efflorescence. But the destinies of this outburst of economic energy will be conditioned upon the growth of our railroad system. Toward this goal all the creative efforts of our economic organism should be directed. 51 PUBLÍCAllÓNS Ifonroveta Home Ä foreign Trade (à>., ïoc« iiwBBii«Tiitii>iiMiiiiiiiiitii[tyiiiiiifPiMiiiiíiif iinmi mi ivm " r |t iiihhtii Ii- miiiciiiiiti ni t>iw>>;l4>i»aapiP»iiwM)«MMíi«)iw^^ im»»« [■iWHrwsiaBiinaM'p» t wft'WB wiw'*»w jfiwumiMKiiiiiMiiiiMwn i «»iwiUMI'I a^aw-aifciHgNBMí«^^ 1. "'The Necessity for Russo-American Co-opera¬ tion in Russian Railway Construction.*' By A. A. Boublikoff. 2. "A Treatise on the Importance of International Agreement on Financial Rehabilitation After the War." By A. A. Boublikoff. 3. "The Recovery of the Russian Monetary Sys¬ tem." By A. A. Boublikoff. 4. "The Urgent Problems of Railroad Construction in Russia and Their Significance to Her Credi¬ tors." By A. A. Boublikoff., 5. The proposal of the Ministry of Ways of Com¬ munication to Russian Douma about the fixing of the credits in the budget of extraordinary expenses of that Ministry for the period of five years, 1917-1921, for railroad building in con¬ nection with the "Plan of Railroad Construc¬ tion" for these years (official). IN PRESS 6. "Russian Forestry." .By V. V. Faas.