IH. The Internal Commerce of the United States And the Law of Its Development. ADDRESS OF Hon. JOSEPH NlAtMO, jr., LL., D. Before the National Statistical Association at the Columbian University, Washington, D. C., JUNE 16, 1894. Resolution Adopted by the National Statisti¬ cal Association, at Washington, D. C., June 16th, 1894. Whereas, the National Statistical Association has this, evening listened to an address of great import¬ ance on the subject of the Internal Commerce of the United States by the Hon. Joseph Nimmo, jr., LL. D., who has given to that subject many years of official and private investigation and study. Therefore, be it resolved, that this Association hereby orders the publication of Mr. Nimmo's ad¬ dress, and the appointment of a committee of three to present the same to Congress through our fellow Honorary Member, Hon. Wm. P. Frye, Senator of tlie United States, who is hereby requested to refei¬ lt to the Senate Committee on Commerce, and through our President, Hon. Amos J. Cummings, Member of Congress who is hereby requested to refer it to the Committee on Interstate and Foreign Commerce of the House of Representatives. The committee appointed under the above resolu¬ tion consisted of HON. WM. LAWRENCE, of Ohio, 1st Vice-President and Chairman of Committee. CHAS. S. HILL, National Secretary. DR. J. M. HINES. THE NATIONAL STATISTICAL JOURNAL. Volume i. JULY, 1894. Part 2. The Internal Commerce of the United States. By Joseph Nimmo, jr., L.L., D. Mr. Chairman : In addressing this association in regard to the statistics of the Internal Commerce of the United States, I shall be guided by what appears to me to be the nature and scope of its work. The word statist, originally a synonym for states¬ man, has by popular usage become the designation of one engaged in à mere incident, of statecraft,viz. : the compilation and tabulation of figures which re - late to public questions. But of late years there has been a tendency to restore the word statist to its original significance through the undefined stages of that progression which is expressed in the words statist, economist, publicist and statesman. In the several countries of Europe statisticians are among the most conspicuous debaters of political questions. The fact that the personnel of this association em¬ braces men of large practical experience in the con¬ sideration of public questions, seems to indicate that its discussions will be along the line of the restora¬ tion of the word statist to its original meaning. The Constitution of the National Statistical Asso¬ ciation clearly implies that its work lies mainly in the broad domain of criticism. It is, of course, im¬ possible for the busy men who compose its member¬ ship to go much into the actual work of revising and verifying figures. The work of the Association must 50 THE NATIONAL July \ therefore be confined mainly to higher criticism. This relates to ; 1st. The sources of statistical information and the manner of compiling it ; 2d. The task of indicating and preparing statis - tics which shall develop the actual and the relative force of conditions, a knowledge of which is neces - sary to the solution of problems which now com¬ mand public attention, and 3d. Statistics which develop the results of poli¬ cies or practices adopted in the actual conduct of governmental affairs. The latter of these, to my mind, constitutes the most practical and important branch of the work of this association. With these prefatory remarks I proceed to the dis¬ cussion assigned to me. The Government of the United States has never attempted to collect statistics in regard to the quan¬ tity or value of commodities transported in the con¬ duct of the internal commerce of the United States, and for the simple reason that it is an impracticable work. Any attempt to collect such statistics would clog the wheels of commerce, involve an annual ex¬ penditure of public money probably exceeding the cost of the decennial census, and become such a source of embarrassipent that it would fail of ac¬ complishment at the very outset. Of course the to¬ tal valuation of goods transported would constitute the record of a movement in which the same commo¬ dity would appear more than once.* The State of *The lowest estimate of the total value of the internal commerce as thus ascertained is $25,000,000,000. The total amount of the bank clearing house exchanges of the United States during the year 1890 amounted to $58,- 845,279,505. This sum embraces a large amount of exchanges not based upon what are ordinarily regarded as commercial transactions. It also omilâ a large amount of commercial tiansactions. So it is estimated that the annual value of the internal commerce of the United States is somewhere between $25,000,000,000 and $45,000,000,000. But all such estimates fall within the category of conjectural statistics, and are of little practical value. 1894. STATISTICAL JOURNAL. 51 New York has for many years published statistics in regard to the quantity and value of certain commo - dities transported on the canals which are the prop¬ erty of that State—but such statistics although in - teresting and valuable are of a special character, merely throwing light upon the internal commerce of the country over a single line, and with respect only to certain leading articles transported. The few other instances in which the quantities and values of goods transported are ascertained may here be passed without especial mention. Although it is impossible to arrive at any precise statement, or even approximate estimate as to the value of the internal commerce of the United States, it is entirely practicable to arrive at an approximate estimate as to the total value of the products of la¬ bor in the United States—information of much greater practical value. Ample statistics upon which such an estimate can be based are furnished by the national census. The total value of the products of Agriculture, Manufactures and Mining reported by the census of 1890 amounts to $12,419,775,349. But this is considerably short of the total value of the products of labor in the United States during the census year. The census valuation of agricultural production—$2,460,107,454 does not include the value of the products of farms of less than three acres un¬ less the value of such products amounted to over $500. The total value of products of manufactures amounting to $9,872,437,283 does not include the product of any establishment the value of which was less than $500 during the census year, nor does it em¬ brace building and other important industries. The census' valuation of products of mining—$587,230,- 662—is also probably something below the true value of all products of that great industry, although more nearly correct than the total for agriculture or man - 52 THE NATIONAL July iifactures. So, making due allowance for omissions and undervaluations it appears safe to say that the value of the products of labor in the United States during the census year of 1890 amounted to fully fifteen thousand million dollars ($15,000,000,000.00). But even this enormous totality falls short of stat¬ ing the total value of the products of labor in the United States. The census valuation of completed products of the various industries is simply that of such products in the hands of producers. When these products are placed at the gates of commerce the services of the transporter add to their values an increment varying from a fraction of one per cent to four or five hundred çer cent, and thus they all be¬ come, in a true sense, products of transportation. Many of the products of agriculture, of mining, and of manufacture, are the subjects of transportation and of trade several times on their way from the original producer to the consumer. The services of the trader or merchant also add to products of labor a large increment of value representing the use of capital and personal services, so that all products transported also become, to a certain extent, pro¬ ducts of commerce. Nor must we lose sight of the vitally important service rendered to the internal commerce of the country by the banker, for the commodities of trade on their way from producer to consumer, also acquire a considerable additional value through the finance of commerce. But these increments of value at the hands of the transporter, the merchant and the banker, of course, lead us far into the region of unattainable statistics. Still it is possible to arrive at a fair estimate as to the total valuation which can be assigned to all the products of labor in the United States during the census for 1890, in the form in which they reached the final artificer or the consumer? Without going into the 1894. STATISTiqAL JOURNAL. 53 detail of estimates I believe it amounts to fully eighteen thousand million dollars a year—$18,000,- 000,000. It is impossible to appreciate clearly the signifi¬ cance of such an enormous amount except through comparison—for it is an accepted truth that the hu - man mind can form no adequate conception of what even one million imports. The comparison which is most instructive in a politico economic sense, is that between the foreign and the internal commerce of the United States. In the light of such a com¬ parison even our enormous foreign market for Amer¬ ican products becomes relatively insignificant. The total value of exports from the United States during the year 1890 was $845,000,000. This consti¬ tuted but 4.7 per cent of the estimated value of the pro - ducts of labor. Take from the domestic exports of the United States in 1890 the value of the exports of cot¬ ton, amounting to $251,000,000 and we find that the exports of products of labor from the United States— embracing all products of agriculture other than cot¬ ton, and all products of manufactures and of mining constituted but 3.3 per cent of the estimated total value of such products. The total value of the imports of merchandise into the United States during the census year amounted to $774,000,000, and constituted but 4.3 per cent of the estimated value of products of American labor as they reached the hands of final artificers and consumers. These figures clearly illustrate the enormous pre¬ ponderance of the internal over the external com - merce of the United States, and develop the fact that within ourselves we possess all the elements of a great and prosperous commerce. Our foreign com - merce is, in a word, but a mere auxiliary to our 54 THE NATIONAL July enormous domestic commerce and industry and must be so treated. Just here it appears proper to advert to tlie fact that tlie agricultural, manufacturing, mining, trans¬ portation, commercial and financial interests of the United States exist not as independent entities but as intimately related members of one great sensitive commercial and industrial organism, tlie hurt of any one part of which produces a constitutional distur¬ bance which is felt to the remotest corner of every other part. The statistics which represent the enor¬ mous preponderance of the domestic over the foreign markets available to the producers of this country therefore clearly indicate the wisdom of maintaining the policy of defending those protective conditions under which our home markets have been so enor¬ mously developed. Reason and experience unite in the conclusion that it is utterly impossible to maintain simultaneously the policy of defending American rates of wages and the values which such wages sustain and the policy of recourse to foreign values, maintained by the much lower foreign rates of wages. The very ap¬ prehension of the adoption of a policy based upon re¬ course to foreign values has caused a disturbance of vitally important commercial relationships unpar- allelled in our history,, and a reduction of values and of wages extending to every branch of domestic enterprise by a law as imperious as that of water seeking its level. There is an abundance of available statistical data clearly illustrating the conditions which govern our internal commerce and determine the course of its development. Such data is much more valuable even than statistics which merely lead to the knowledge of a grand totality. 1894. STATISTICAL JOURNAL. 55 As a rule, subject to a very few exceptions, the statistics collected for purely business purposes are most reliable and most valuable to legislators both in solving problems and in determining and adjust¬ ing the conflicting claims of rival interests. I refer particularly to the statistics published by boards of trade, chambers of commerce, commercial and in¬ dustrial associations, and railroad companies. The railroad transportation statistics of chief value are those relating to mileage, cost of road and equip¬ ment, tonnage carried, receipts, expenditures and above all statistics in regard to transportation charges. The carriage of passengers, and of the mails are important elements of commerce—so is the transmission of telegraphic messages. The public press of the country is also a potent agency of com¬ merce. Perhaps no other agency has been more po¬ tential in determining the course of our commercial development. There is an abundant supply of reli¬ able data showing the progress of these various agencies of commerce and their interdependent re¬ lationship. At the beginning I suggested as perhaps the most useful work of this Association the duty of inviting public attention to statistical data which serves to develop a knowledge of the actual and the relative force of the conditions which govern the internal commerce of the country, and which record the re¬ sults of tentative legislation. This can be illustrated by reference to the merits of certain concrete ques¬ tions. Accordingly I shall invite your attention to the light thrown upon that complex and far-reach¬ ing question the "railroad problem" by certain statistical expressions of results. Men who have not yet passed the meridian of life can remember when each railroad company in this country was, and strove to remain a law unto itself. 56 THE NATIONAL July The various companies repelled the juncture of their tracks. They also repelled joint traffic of every sort, including joint freight charges and the common use of cars. Besides certain of the more powerful rail - road corporations sought by an extension of their lines to secure a widely extended control of the com¬ merce of the country, and thus to gain the power of .protecting their rates against the competition of ri¬ val" roads, and against the competition of commer¬ cial forces. But all this proved to be in vain. The commercial and economic tendencies toward railroad unity, embracing the juncture of tracks, the com - mon use of freight cars, and the establishment óf ten thousand interdependent copartnership relations between companies was irresistible. The interac¬ tion of forces, thus promoted and intensified, finally evolved the most gigantic combination for commer¬ cial purposes which the world has ever seen—the American Railroad System. Almost from time im¬ memorial a deep seated prejudice had existed against commercial combinations. This prejudice in an es¬ pecial manner directed against combinations among common carriers was rooted in the belief that.the in¬ evitable tendency of combination is toward monopo¬ ly, the suppression of competition and the advance¬ ment of prices. At an early day it was laid down as an incontrovertible dogma in railroad construction, that where combination is possible, competition is impossible. But that dogma has been utterly ex¬ ploded. That combinations among common carriers on free highways of commerce were more or less subject to the objections urged against combinations gener¬ ally cannot be denied. And yet it is an historical fact beyond question that combinations among rail¬ roads, which are not and in the nature of things can¬ not become free highways of commerce, have been 1894. STATISTICAL JOUENAL. 57 promotive of a competition, wEicli has resulted in an enormous reduction of rates and fares. This is no longer a debatable question. It is patent to the observation of every person who has given even slight attention to the evolution of the American Railroad System—that most gigantic and coercive of all com¬ binations. The competition thus evolved relates not only to rival transportation lines but chiefly to that subtle and all-pervading competition which has been created among rival trade centres and rival produc¬ tive areas. The results of this complex and force¬ ful competition are to-day clearly read in unim¬ peachable statistics, as follows : The average rate per ton per mile for the trans - portation of freights of all descriptions on the lines of eighteen of the principal railroad corporatioirs of the United States fell from 1.985 cents per ton per mile in 1873 to .799 of one cent per ton per mile in 1892. In other words the average charge in 1878 was about two and a half times as great as the aver¬ age charge in 1892. These reductions were gradual. They clearly indicate the stress of persistent and en¬ during forces. This is indicated by the following data showing the average rate per ton per mile charged on the railroads referred to, from the year 1873 to the year 1892 : Year. Â.verage rat-e per ton per mile. Year. Average rate per ton per mile. 1873 1.985 cts. 1883 1.188 cts. 1874.... 1.869 '• 1884.... 1.087 " 1875.... 1.686 " 1885 1.022 " 1876.... 1.574 " 1886... . .988 " 1877.... 1.505 " 1887 .971 " 1878.... 1.379 " 1888... . .925 " 1879 1.244 " ■ 1889 .922 "■ 1880 1.292 " 1890... . .884 " 1881.... 1.215 " 1891.... .868 " 1882 1.190 " 1892 .799 " 58 THE NATIONAL July These reductions in freight charges throughout 'this vast country were not made voluntarily by rail¬ road managers. They simply represent the effects of competition engendered by railroad combination culminating in a national railroad system which is unto the traveller and the shipper as one grand in¬ strument of commerce. And thus a simple column of ñgures representing the reduction in the average freight charge from year to year on the I'ailroads of the United States proves the great economic and commercial truth that in a vast country where the most extensive and force¬ ful combination has been consummated which the world ever saw, there has been simnltaneously de¬ veloped a competition of unparalleled intensity and effectiveness for the benefit of everybody not inter¬ ested financially in the stock or bonds of railroad companies. From the Atlantic to the Pacific and from the Lakes to the Gulf the people of the United States now enjoy the advantages afforded by the most ex¬ tensive, the most expeditious, and the cheapest rail¬ road transportation on the globe. At last the truth inculcated by the stern lessons of experience has flashed upon the minds of legisla¬ tors and of the whole country that the solution of the American railroad problem lies in the direction of the perfection of that vast and complex organism, the American Railroad System. And now as a final illustration of the value of statistics in demonstrating the success or failure of policies and practices, I invite your attention to a matter of the higliest public interest, affecting the commerce of the whole country. It relates to a sta¬ tistical verdict which has, as I sincerely hope, put a final stop to a notable controversy. 1894. STATISTICAL JOURNAL. 59 In the course of the evolution of the American Railroad System with its constantly falling rates, the reductions made in transportation charges were not uniform. In the intense competition between rival railroads and rival trade centers many discrimina¬ tions arose. These were greatly intensified by rail¬ road wars of rates. In the light of history sucli discriminations now appear to have been inevitable incidents of the transition from a disconnected, to a closely connected and intimately associated national railroad system. The complaints which these dis¬ criminations evoked were proclaimed in the halls of Congress, and in time the pressure brought to bear made national legislation for the regulation of the railroads a political necessity. The Congressional investigation which led to the scheme of regulation which was adopted, was conducted by the Senate Committee on Interstate Commerce, of which Sena¬ tor Cullom, of Illinois, was chairman. ■ The report of that Committee was submitted to Congress January 18, 1886. It was one of the most voluminous, and I hesitate not to say, the most valuable treatise ever presented to any government upon the subject of transportation. As a legislative achievement it re¬ flected the highest honor upon its distinguished author. Senator Cullom. The practical result of this great report was the passage of the Act to Regulate Commerce embracing the establishment of an Interstate Commerce Com - mission charged with the duty of investigating all infractions of the law and of passing upon them. The Commission was endowed with no administrative authority, in the sense of power to make rates ; it was not authorized to interfere with the general au¬ thority exercised by the administrative officers of the railroad corporations: nor was it given any ju- 60 THE NATIONAL July dicial authority. It was simply empowered to exercise the moral influence of its mediatorial oíRces, and to report to the federal courts all cases where the com¬ panies refused to abide by its decisions. In this way it was enabled to institute judicial proceedings for the enforcement of the provisions of the Statute. In a word the Commission was under the provisions of the Act to Regulate Commerce, endowed only with the function of effecting justice in the conduct of railroad transportation through the moral force of the soundness of its decisions and of its representa¬ tive character as an exponent of public sentiment. Beyond that came the power of the federal judiciary, and every facility was pi'ovided for invoking the ex¬ ercise of that power. The bill presented by Senator Cullom was in some measure a new departure in governmental adminis¬ tration. It was regarded by its author as a tenta¬ tive measure, but time has proved it to be one of the wisest products of statesmanship. It voices the growing tendency of tlie age toward utilizing moral forces to the utmost in the maintenance of justice and order, holding the strong arm of governmental power as much as possible in reserve. For awhile the Commission under the guidance of Judge Cooley, its chairman, proceeded in its assigned work admirably. The railroads obeyed its mandates in fear and trembling, and, for awhile, peace reigned within our borders. But no human authority ever yet existed very long without having its powers tested. The competitive forces which were involving the American railroad system were in constant ebuli- tion. Competitive struggles, culminating in wars of rates prevailed extensively, and unjust discrimi¬ nation were, as formerly, their inevitable concomi¬ tants. Although the Commission in its third annual 1894. STATISTICAL JOURNAL. 61 report committed itself fully to the ideas upon which its functions had been determined by the act to reg¬ ulate commerce, its chairman, Judge Cooley, soon thereafter became the proponent of a new theory of railroad regulation. It came about thus : The com - panics having appealed from certain decisions of the Commission, the courts decided that the Commission was invested with no judicial authority whatsoever. The distinguished author of "Constitutional Limi¬ tations ' ' expressed his dissent to this view, and at once rushed to the conclusion that the Commission must be endowed by Congress with a clearly defined judicial function. This opinion was expressed in the fourth annual report of the Commission, submitted November 9, 1890, wherein it was declared that the decisions of the Commission should not only have prima facie, but full judicial authority; i. e., that the Commission should become a full Hedged branch of the federal judiciary. But the courts sternly ad¬ hered to their views in regard to the exclusiveness of the judicial power as promulgated by Hamilton and Story and Marshall, and the Commission was forced to submit. Besides the proposition was so complete - ly outside of the limitations of the constitution and of the principles upon which the constitiition is founded, that the formal appeal of the Commission to Congress for judicial powers failed to gaiil any serious attention. Judge Cooley however did not stop at the acquisi¬ tion of judicial power. In his address before the Convention of Railroad Commissioners held at Wash¬ ington on March 3 and 4, 1891, he boldly declared in favor of conferring upon the Commission the power of rate making—the plan proposed being to subject all rate sheets to governmental revision. This in¬ volved the monstrous proposition of making the 62 THE NATIONAL July national government responsible, not only for the course of the development of the internal commerce of the United States, but for the commercial pros¬ perity of each part, and of the whole of this vast coun - try. It has been remarked that when a great cor¬ poration leans upon an ordinary man the ordinary ^ man is apt to give way. But what would have been the fate of the Commission with an internal com¬ merce amounting to twenty-five thousand million dollars a year leaning upon it. The proposition thus made to the legislator was as astounding as anything recently promulgated from reincarnation to the gov - emmental ownership and control of the railroads. But it is eliminated by its enormous statistical con¬ clusion. The distinction between the regulation of commerce in the interest of .justice and order and the adminis¬ trative control of commerce is as broad as that be¬ tween liberty regulated by law and governmental imperialism. The one is true Americanism, while the other is unmitigated despotism, for despotic power can be exercised under the form of democratic gov¬ ernment as well as under the forms of monarchy. Nevertheless under the inspiration and influence of Judge Cooley, Congress was asked to place upon the brow of the Interstate Commerce Commission the triple crown of moral, administrative and judicial functions. Such an admixture of governmental powers has never been exhibited on this planet except in the case of an absolute monarchy wielding at once the legislative, executive and judicial functions of gov¬ ernment. The contention of Judge Cooley constituted a clean cut case of conflict between the judgment of a great statesman and the judgment of a distinguished jurist in regard to a vitally important question of public policy. The jurist had ventured into a field of 1894. STATISTICAL JOURNAL. 63 speculation completely outside of .judicial determi¬ nation, while the statesman, Senator Cullom, with nearly forty years of vigorous experience behind him as lawyer, state and national legislator, and governor of a great state had projected his ideas into a range of thought and of practical politics entirely familiar to him. In the course of three years—for we make history rapidly in this country—the judgment of the statesman as to the nature and scope of the functions of the Interstate Commerce Commission was fully vindicated by the practical experiences of the Com¬ mission in their administration of the provisions of the "Act to Regulate Commerce," and these experi¬ ences are sharply expressed in certain brief, but eloquent statistics. It is interesting to note just how this has come about. From the beginning the Inter¬ state Commerce Commission has been dominated by gentlemen of acknowledged ability, of highly re¬ spectable legal attainments, and of unquestioned force and purity of character—just such men as were needed in order to administer an office wielding the authority of the moral purposes of this great nation. The results of their experiences as expressed in their last annual report, submitted December 1, 1893, fully vindicate the forecast and political sagacity of the statesman. In brief the teaching of those exper¬ iences in the language of the Commission are as fol¬ lows : (а) The administration of the Commission has been instrumental in enlightening the public mind and in reforming the views of railway managers. (б) The work of regulation is continually pro¬ gressing in different ways. (c) The civil and criminal proceedings in the State and Federal Courts is being successfully performed, and. 64 THE NATIONAL July (d) The successful performance of the functions of the Commission under the provisions of the existing law are demonstrated by the following figures : While hundreds of complaints were heard and set¬ tled through the mediatorial and advisory offices of the Commission, only sixteen cases came to a formal hearing and determination, of which not to exceed eleven were decided against the railroad companies. In only one of those cases was the reasonableness of rates called in question, and in that solitary case the judgment of the Commission was against the com¬ plainant. So the statistical expression of the results of the Commission in regulating the abuses of a railroad system of 200,000 miles in extent and sub¬ serving the commercial and social interest of a great nation whose population stands at about seventy millions and whose annual commerce is valued at twenty-five thousand million dollars, is expressed in the following figures : Number of cases of unreasonable rates.. . .Zero. Number of cases of unjust discrimination.. 11 In the entire range of my statistical investigations and computations I have met no such eloquent fig¬ ures as this humble zero and this instructive little number eleven. They triumphantly vindicate the forecast and political sagacity of Senator Cullom in basing the powers of the Commission mainly upon moral forces, they do credit to the Commissioners, they reflect honor upon the country, and they ilium - inate the civilization of the age in which we live. An apparent error-was made in the original Inter¬ state Commerce Act, against the views of the Senate, whereby the railroads were debarred from making traffic agreements rendered necessary by their oper¬ ation as one great system of transportation, but an 1894. STATISTICAL JOURNAL. 65 amendment of tlie law curing that defect is now pending and hopefully will become law. And now, Mr. Chairman, in conclusion permit me to add that while I discard the idea that statistical inquiry is in itself a separate science, and while I long ago abandoned the idea that the problems of this life can be figured out, I perceive the inesti¬ mable value of statistics which express the lessons of experience and which record the success or failure of legislative attempts to sustain sound political principles. In my humble opinion, it is in this field of inquiry and demonstration that the statistician who aims high will achieve his grandest successes and reap his most abundant reward.