Cornell University Library HD 9049.W4L4 The world's wheat suPP 1 *- 3 1924 013 935 170 THE WORLD'S WHEAT SUPPLY BY SIR JOHN BENNET LAWES, Babt., D.C.L., Sc.D. F.E.S. AND SIR J. HENRY GILBERT, LL.D., Sc.D., F.R.S. Eeprint of Letter in The Times, December 2, 1898 SPOTTISWOODE & CO., NEW-STBEET SQUABE, LONDON 1898 The original of this book is in the Cornell University Library. There are no known copyright restrictions in the United States on the use of the text. http://www.archive.org/details/cu31924013935170 THE WORLD'S WHEAT SUPPLY BY SIE JOHN BENNET LAWES, Bakt., D.C.L,, Sc.D., F.E.S. AND SIB J. HENEY GILBEET, LL.D., Sc.D., F.E.S. Reprint of Letter in The Times, December 2, 1898 AV' , i.. » SPOTT1SWOODE & CO., NEW- STREET SQUARE, LONDON 1898 MX' THE WORLD'S WHEAT SUPPLY. (Reprint oi Letter in The Times, December 2, 1898.) The President of the British Association is always selected for that distinguished position on account of his great scientific attainments. When the present President, Sir William Crookes, startled his audience at the late meeting of the Association at Bristol, by telling them that — " England and all civilised nations stand in deadly peril of not having enough to eat " — we may feel sure that not only would his hearers be startled, but that the alarm would spread over the civilised world. Having ourselves paid considerable attention to the subject of the home and foreign production of wheat, we have several times been asked to say something on the momentous question raised by Sir William Crookes. In complying with the request, we should at the outset say, that we do not propose to criticise in any detail Sir William Crookes's statistics, but only to call attention to some points, the consideration of which it is of importance to bear in mind. No one can deny Sir William Crookes's statement that — "land is a limited quantity." But his further statement that — " as mouths multiply, food resources dwindle " — is more open to question. Sir William Crookes first considers what will be the position of this country under " the universal dearth to be expected." He seems to think that we must for the future depend more on our own resources, and less upon • imports for the wheat required to feed our population. He A2 says — " A total area of land in the United Kingdom equal to a plot 110 miles square, of quality and climate sufficient to grow wheat to the extent of 29 bushels per acre, does not seem a hopeless demand." He further points out, that the area thus required is about one-tenth of the total area of the United Kingdom. On this point it is to be borne in mind that the total area (77,672,816 acres) includes land and water, and uncultivated as well as cultivated land ; whilst, according to official statistics, there were in 1897 only 19,943,843 acres of arable land, and 27,924,710 acres of permanent grasS) making together only 47,868,553 acres available for agricul- tural purposes out of the total area of 77,672,816 acres. Sir William Crookes, however, expresses doubt whether the amount of land supposed could be kept under wheat, except under the imperious pressure of impending starvation, or the stimulus of a national subsidy, or permanent high prices ; and he assumes that all the land now under barley and oats would not be suitable for wheat, and that for the present our annual deficit must be imported. As the question whether or not the United Kingdom couldl grow enough wheat for its population is one to which we have paid a good deal of attention, and on which we have published our opinion more than once, it may be well briefly j to summarise it here. Taking Sir William Crookes's estimate of the amount of land required for this purpose to be about 8 million acres, the argument at the present time would be somewhat as follows : — As above stated, the total arable area of the United Kingdom was, in 1897, rather under 20 million acres, so that the above requirement for the growth of wheat would absorb about two-fifths of the existing total arable area of the country; and such a scheme would obviously soon require more. Our dependence on foreign produce would, however, not thus be lessened ; for we should have to depend on imports to supply the place of the other grain crops, and the stock foods, displaced by the devotion of so much more land to wheat. Or, if the area at present devoted to these other crops were to be maintained as at present, the total arable area would have to be increased to the extent of the increase in the area under wheat, thus trenching on the land now devoted to permanent grass. It is obvious that under such circumstances our live stock would have to be reduced, and our imports of live animals and meat very much increased. Such would be the case with our present popula- tion, to say nothing of continued increase, and of the fact that there is proportionally very little possible increase in our own food-producing area. In any case, therefore, a material increase in our own area under wheat would not reduce the imports requisite to meet the food requirements of the people, but would only substitute those of wheat for those of barley, oats, stock foods, or meat, or all of these. This is assuming that the change proposed were to be a permanent one. But if it were to be only temporary to meet the exigencies of war, or of dearth in other countries, the circumstances of the time would indicate what derangement of our agricultural system would yield the most food, and be the least objectionable. Sir William Crookes dismisses the subject of our own home production with the remark that—" We eagerly spend millions to protect our coasts and commerce ; and millions more on ships, explosives, guns, and men ; but we omit to take necessary precautions to supply ourselves with the very first and supremely important munition of war — food." It is rather hard thus to be told that we are negligent upon the important subject of our food supply, when, up to the time of the Bristol meeting, the remedy had been locked up in Sir William Crookes's brain! The truth is, that we produce more per acre of every staple food suited to our soil and climate, than any other country in the world. But we have a greater population in proportion to our cultivable area than any other country in Europe ; and it is simply impossible to provide the food required without very large importation. In fact, it would require very extensive emigration to bring down our population within the limits of our own possible food supply. Sir William Crookes next reviews the capabilities of the world in the future for the production of wheat. He says : — " For the last thirty years the United States have been the dominant factor in the foreign supply of wheat. . . ." And further: — Almost yearly, since 1885, additions to the wheat-growing area have diminished, while the requirements of the increasing population of the States have advanced, so that the needed American supplies have been drawn from the acreage hitherto used for exportation. Practically there remains no 6 uncultivated prairie land in the United States suitable for wheat-growing. The virgin land has been rapidly absorbed, until at present there is no land left for wheat without reducing the area for maize, hay, and other necessary crops. It is almost certain that within a generation the ever increasing popu- lation of the United States will consume all the wheat grown within its borders, and will be driven to import, and, like ourselves, will scramble for a lion's share of the wheat crop of the world. This being the outlook, ex- ports of wheat from the United States are only of present interest, and will gradually diminish to a vanishing point. And:— But if the United States, which grow about one-fifth of the world's wheat, and contribute one-third of all wheat exportations, are even now dropping out of the race, and likely soon to enter the list of wheat-importing countries, what prospect is there that other wheat-growing countries will be able to fill the gap, and, by enlarging their acreage under wheat, replace the supply which the States have so long contributed to the world's food ? First, as to the statement that additions to the wheat- growing area in the United States have diminished almost yearly since 1885. As a matter of fact, the area has distinctly diminished during the last four of the eleven years 1886-96 ; but in 1891 it was the highest ever reached, in 1889 and in 1892 much higher than the average, and in six of the eleven years, commencing with 1886, it was more than the average of that period. That the area should not have shown more continued increase since 1885 is what would be expected from the fact that it is just about from that date that the price of wheat has gone down so disastrously to the producer ; con- ditions potently adverse to the extension of the area of production. 1 As to the United States already falling out of the race, notwithstanding' their increasing population, their exports of wheat were, on the average of the last five years, to 1896-97 1 In reference to the above statements, which only come down to 1896, it may be added that according to the official returns, the average area over the four years of crop, 1893, 1894, 1895, and 1896, was only 34,644,458 acres. The officially re vised figure for the crop of 1897, after a special investigation made at the close of the harvest, is, however, as quoted in The Journal of the Board of Agriculture, 39,465,000 acres ; but the Statistician states, that no satisfactory comparison can be made between this acreage in 1897, and that for 1896, as it is believed that the returns for earlier years were under-estimated. Then r for the crop of 1898, the area is provisionally estimated at 43,000,000 acres ; though it is said that the figure still awaits final confirmation. Supposing, however, the record for 1897 to be correct, and that for 1898 approximately so, it maybe stated that-the area for 1897 has only been exceeded twice before, and then only to a small extent ; whilst that for 1898 would be more than 3,000,000 acres over any previous year. At any rate, it is admittedly very probatle that the areas recorded for the immediately preceding years are too low, and it is certain that those for both 1897 and 1898, show a very great increase. inclusive, over 3,000,000 quarters (=24,000,000 bushels) more per annum than over either of the two preceding quin- quennial periods. It is true that the area of suitable land yet remaining to be brought in for the crop is comparatively not large ; but there is a very wide scope for an increase of produce per acre. It should be remembered that a large pro- portion of the area brought under cultivation in recent years for the production and export of wheat, consists of rich prairie land, notwithstanding which the average yield per acre of the United States as a whole is only between 12 and 13 bushels, against more than twice as much, about 28 bushels, the average produce under ordinary cultivation, of the very much poorer lands of the United Kingdom. Again, the unmanured plot of the comparatively poor soil of the permanent experi- mental wheat field at Eothamsted, has yielded an average of more than 13 bushels per acre per annum over fifty consecu- tive years — that is, rather more than the average of the whole of the United States, including so much rich prairie land, and also rather more than the estimated average of the whole of the wheat lands of the world. Yet it is alleged by some that the wheat lands of the United States are already showing exhaustion. How are these facts to be accounted for ? The wheat pro- duced in ordinary agricultural practice on the comparatively poor lands of the United Kingdom, is grown in rotation, the land is comparatively well cultivated, and it is kept compara- tively free from weeds. In the case of the growth of an average of more than 13 bushels per acre for fifty years in succession without manure at Eothamsted, the land has been kept as free from weeds as is possible. On the other hand, most of the export lands of the United States are scarcely more than skimmed by the plough, scarcely any labour is bestowed on cleaning, weeds largely rob the fertility, the straw and weeds are to a great extent burnt, and manure is often wasted. These are certainly conditions well calculated to reduce fertility rapidly. But, considering the original cha- racter of a large portion of the land, much of which has not been broken up so long as, or more than, twenty years, it is impossible to believe that the wheat-growing areas of the United States, ' which are said to be already showing 8 exhaustion, would not, with good cultivation, yield large crops for many years yet ; for it is not so much reduction or de- ficiency of fertility, but failure to utilise the existing fertility, that is the cause of the restricted yield. Improvement in this respect can, however, only be attained by an increased expen- diture of both capital and labour. Upon the whole, we think there is no doubt that there still exists in the United States great inherent capability of production of wheat, not only for home consumption, but for export also, for many years to come. As to Eussia, which comes second to the United States as a wheat exporter, Sir William Crookes says that the great supply is merely provisional and precarious. He speaks of the development of the fertile, though somewhat over-rated black earth as progressing rapidly. But he adds that — " the consumption of bread in Eussia has been reduced to danger point. The peasants starve and fall victims to ' hunger typhus,' whilst the wheat-growers export grain that ought to be consumed at home." At the same time, he admits that the yield per acre is extremely low. As to the low produce of the black earth, which is very low indeed, much the same argument is applicable as in the case of the low produce of the rich prairie soils of the United States. For want of proper cultivation the rich Eussian soils yield much less per acre than such soils should do, and there can be no doubt that, if properly cultivated, they would yield food for the population and to spare. With regard to Canada, Sir William Crookes speaks of— " the extent and marvellous capacity of the fertile plains of Manitoba and the North-West Provinces." But in his appen- dix he says :— " The most trustworthy estimates give Canada a wheat area of not more than six millions of acres in the next 12 years, increasing to a maximum of 12 millions of acres in 25 years." He adds that the development of this area must necessarily be slow, as the population is wanting to supply the needful labour at seed-time and harvest ; whilst as population increases, so do home demands for wheat. He further adds that thus far performance had lagged behind promise, the wheat-bearing area of all Canada having increased comparatively little, and the exports not in greater 9 proportion. Of course, the above are only estimates of the probable development under existing conditions ; but the evidence at command is to the effect that very much more than is here supposed is available for the crop whenever circumstances show that it would be profitable to devote it to the purpose. On these points Mr. Sydney C. D. Eoper, who is officially connected with the subject at Ottawa, speaks of — " the existence in the North-West of the finest undeveloped wheat fields in the world." He adds, however, that at present the population is lacking, as also are lacking the immediate inducements to immigration, though a marked advance in wheat values would probably supply both the one and the other. He at the same time recognises that the appreciation of prices, when it comes, is not likely to be lasting. Lastly, in regard to the non-extension of area in Canada under existing circumstances, it is said that it is actually in contemplation to appeal to farmers to reduce their acreage under wheat in order to check over-production. So much for the probable prospective capabilities for wheat production of the United States, Eussia, and Canada. But it is safe to assert that there are very large areas suitable for the growth of the crop in other countries of the world, which have as yet been opened up only very partially, or not at all. In some cases the necessary population and labour are wanting, in some cheaper transport, in some irrigation is required, and in some more than one of these necessary con- ditions of success are wanting. With the low prices of recent years, however, which indicate that the supply is equal to the demand, rapid development was not to be expected. But there is no reason to doubt that, with remunerative prices, the obstacles to progress above referred to would be gradually overcome, and that the area of production would increase con- currently with the demand. In fact, the little extension of the area of production throughout the world generally in recent years is to be attributed to non-remunerative prices, and is not to be interpreted as indicating that we are approaching the limit of the available land of the world for the growth of the crop. The dependence of the available supply of wheat on its market value may even be illustrated by what has taken 10 place within the present year. Sir William Crookes says that in April last the world's visible supply amounted to 10,000,000 bushels (=1£ million quarters) less than in 1897 at the same date. We may add that it was estimated by some that the supply up to the end of the harvest year must run short of the demand, and that therefore a further rise of price was to be expected. As a matter of fact, there was a considerable rise of prices, due more to the artificial con- ditions bringing about the Leiter boom, than to the natural effect of supply and demand. The rise had, however, for its result, the bringing out of a great increase of supply. Thus, from the beginning of March to the end of the harvest year (the end of August), the imports of wheat into this Country, though they had previously been less than in 1896-97, were this year, notwithstanding the alleged deficiency of 1£ million quarters in April, nearly 2 million quarters more than in 1897 over the same period. Concurrently, however, from the middle of June the price gradually declined, reaching the lowest point within the twelve months at the end of the har- vest year ; and it has gone lower still since. This illustration of the effect of price in bringing supplies of wheat into the market is, it is true, one of only temporary and exceptional influence. With regard to the climatic conditions essential for the successful growth of wheat, Sir William Crookes says: — "The ripening of wheat requires a temperature averaging at least 65 deg. F. for 55 to 65 days." If such were the case, we fear that so far from increasing our own area under the crop, we should have to reduce it. Thus, in neither of the five dis- tricts into which the wheat-growing area of Great Britain is divided, has either July or August, our two hottest monthSi shown that mean temperature in any one of the last twelve years, of higher than average produce ; whilst the average mean temperature over the five districts collectively, has only reached or exceeded 60 deg. F. in four of those twelve years in July, and in only four years in August. Further, it may be stated that, at Greenwich^ the mean temperature over the 50 years, from 1841 to 1890 inclusive, was only 62'5 deg. for July, and only 61*6 deg. for August ; whilst the mean tem- perature of 55 to 65 days would be below 62*0 deg. F. It 11 may be added that, with the exception of 1868 and 1.894, the' heaviest crop of wheat, both grain and straw, grown in Great Britain during the last 50 years, was in 1854 ; the season of which was described as follows: — After a favourable seed time, the winter was unusually severe ; the early spring was favourable, but was succeeded by cold and unseasonable weather until the middle of July, from which time until har- vest, the period, though changeable, included some fine maturing and harvest weather. The harvest was, however, late. Further, the mean temperature at Greenwich was, in June, 3 deg. below the average, whilst in July it was only 61'0 deg., and in August only 61-1 deg. F. Sir William Crookes places very little reliance on the extension of the wheat-growing area of the world. His remedy is in an increase in the yield per acre of the world's crop ; and he proposes that it should be raised from 12-7 bushels as at present, to twenty bushels per acre ; thus adding to the world's annual crop nearly 150,000,000 qrs. on the present area. Referring to our experiments on the continuous growth of wheat, he selects a plot on which nitrate of soda, with a full mineral manure in addition, had been employed for a number of years in succession, and from the results he calculates that it would require 22-86 lbs. nitrate of soda to produce an increase of one bushel of wheat. Accordingly, he reckons that to increase the world's crop by 7 - 3 bushels per acre, it would require the annual application of 1J cwt. of nitrate of soda per acre annually. Thus, on his estimate of 163,000,000 acres under the crop, it would require 12,000,000 tons of nitrate annually to be distributed in varying amounts over the wheat- growing countries of the world ; those which produce more than the average of 12 , 7 bushels requiring less, and those below that average requiring more. Broadly speaking, how- ever, about 12,000,000 tons of nitrate will be required annually, in addition to the 1,250,000 tons already absorbed by the world for various crops. Sir William Crookes proposes to manufacture the nitrate of soda required by his calculation, by oxidating the free nitrogen of the air by means of electricity, and he calculates that, by employing water power to generate the electricity, nitrate of soda could be produced for £5 per ton, and that the 12 Falls of Niagara are capable of supplying the required energy without much lessening their mighty flow. It may be men- tioned here, that many years ago, when nitrate of soda had risen to an exorbitant price, one of us paid a visit to the late Sir Benjamin Brodie, who was carrying out experiments on the production of ozone by means of electricity, to obtain his opinion on the practicability of the production of nitrate of soda by its agency. His conclusion was that there would be no difficulty about such production, but that the cost would be too great. As we have, from 1852 up to the present time, grown very much larger crops of wheat every year than the proposed twenty bushels per acre the world over, by means of liberal applications of nitrate of soda in conjunction with the necessary mineral constituents, we have not only no objections to raise against Sir William Crookes's proposal, but we should consider a cheap supply of nitrate to be a very great boon to the agricultural world. Whether, however, an average of twenty bushels per acre would be obtained year after year the world over, by the annual application of 12,000,000 tons of nitrate of soda, we very much doubt. Sir William Crookes himself warns us that — " When we apply to the land nitrate of soda, sulphate of ammonia, or guano, we are drawing on the earth's capital, and our drafts will not perpetually be honoured." In fact, if the nitrate were used alone year after year, the available mineral constituents would soon show deficiency. Eurther, not only does the wheat crop thrive upon nitrate, but all the miscellaneous vegetation which infests our fields under the name of weeds, fights desperately for a share of this food, and it is only by a large and costly expenditure of labour that we can keep our fields clean enough to grow our grain crops. It is doubtless partly for this reason that much of the nitrate of soda used is employed for " cleaning-crops," roots, &c. It is also used for grass, and for spring crops such as barley or oats, rather than for wheat ; as they are more easily kept free from weeds than the autumn-sown wheat. Owing to the conditions of insufficient labour under which many of the wheat crops of the world are grown, it is quite possible that the application of nitrate might in some cases result in less rather than larger crops ; but probably the systems of farming may be improved before the Falls of 13 Niagara furnish th« world with 12,000,000 tons of nitrate of soda annually. It will be of interest briefly to compare the composition of some typical soils, so far as their richness in certain important elements of fertility is concerned. The carbon-compounds of our crops, such as the starch of grain crops and potatoes, the sugar of the sugar-cane and of roots, &c, derive their carbon either mainly or exclusively from the atmosphere, and not from the soil. We will therefore confine attention to some illustrations of the amounts of nitrogen, potash, and phosphoric acid, in our own soil compared with some rich prairie lands, and some rich Eussian soils. In the case of our own soils, we have determinations of the nitrogen down to a considerable depth — sometimes to twelve times 9 in., or '108 in. in all; and we have found that some deep-rooting leguminous plants send their roots down to, and draw nitrate from, that depth. In the case of Canadian and Eussian soils, however, we have only results for much less depths. Again, in the case of our own soils, the results for potash and phos- phoric acid only relate to the three upper depths of 9 in. each, or 27 in. We will therefore limit our illustrations to a comparison of the amounts of the three constituents in the different soils, to a depth of 12 in. only. First, as to the amounts of nitrogen per acre : — Eothamsted unmanured wheat plot 3,139 lb. nitrogen ; corresponding to 20,058 lb. nitrate of soda. Average of four Manitoba soils 10,458 lb. nitrogen; corresponding to 66,824 lb. nitrate of soda. Average of five Eussian soils 11,207 lb. nitrogen; corresponding to 71,609 lb. nitrate of soda. Thus, even in the poor Eothatosted soil, the amount of combined nitrogen is very large ; but, to the same depth, the quantity is, on the average, more than three times as much in the four Manitoba soils, whilst the Eussian soils are richer still. These great stocks of nitrogen exist in the soils as organic nitrogen, and as such are very insoluble ; but the nitrogen is gradually, though very slowly, oxidated into nitric acid, which forms with lime, soda, 4 or other bases in the soil, very soluble salts, in which state the nitrogen becomes avail- able to vegetation. It is estimated that the unmanured 14 Eothamsted wheat soil yields up an average of not more than from 20 to 25 lb. 1 of nitrogen per acre annually, notwithstand- ing that to the depth of 12 in. it contains 3,139 lb., cor- responding to 20,058 lb. of nitrate of soda ; whilst to a depth of 90 in., or 7^ ft. it contains about 15,000 lb., cor- responding to about 96,000 lb. of nitrate of soda. In other fields where samples have been taken down to twelve times 9 in., or 108 in., from 15,000 lb. to 20,000 lb. of nitrogen have been found to be present down to that depth. Further, experiments in the Eothamsted Laboratory indicate that a larger proportion of the total nitrogen is readily soluble in rich garden soil, and in permanent meadow soil, than in the ordinary arable soil at Eothamsted. There can, in fact, be no doubt that under favourable conditions of cultivation the rich United States, Canadian, and Eussian soils, would yield up very much more nitrogen in an available form than they . have done hitherto, and also very much more than the poorer , Eothamsted soil. Indeed, even under existing conditions, the • Canadian soils do, on the average, yield about 1£ time as .much wheat per acre as either the Eothamsted unmanured . soil, or the average of the United States soils. The conclusion must be that the United States soils, especially the rich prairie soils, are capable of yielding much more wheat than they do. Then as to the potash and phosphoric acid : — We Jiave no results relating to these for the Canadian soils, none relating to the Eothamsted soil below 27 in., and none relating to the Eussian to much more than 12 in. The : following is, however, a comparison of the total amounts (as determined by strong acid), in the Eothamsted unmanured wheat soil, and (on the average) in the five Eussian soils, in each case reckoned to the depth of 12 in. : — lbs per Acre Phosphoric Acid Totash Eothamsted Unmanured Wheat soil . Average of 5 Russian soils .... 8,687 61,229 3,962 5,398 Thus, there is to a depth of 12 in., about seven times as 1 Perhaps it would be better to say 20 to 30 lb according to season, 15. much, potash, and about one and a third time as much phos- phoric acid, in .the riehEussian, as in the poor Eothamsted soil. These constituents, in the condition in which they exist in soils, are, however, like the nitrogen, only slowly rendered available for vegetation. We have not similar particulars, either for other Canadian soils, or for any United States prairie soils. We have, how- ever, the percentages of nitrogen in other Canadian soils, and also in some United States prairie soils ; and these show that they are very much richer in nitrogen than the Eothamsted soil. But, as we do not know the depth to which the samples were taken, we cannot estimate the amounts of nitrogen per acre, to a given depth. There can, in fact, be no question that these rich prairie soils are capable of yielding up much more nitrogen, and of giving much larger crops of wheat, than the Eothamsted soil. It will be some satisfaction to those who fear that our soils are becoming exhausted to find that a soil which cannot be considered a very fertile one, and which has been under arable cultivation for some centuries, still contains such large stocks of fertility, and under good cultivation is still yielding as much wheat per acre per annum without manure, as the average of the whole of the wheat-growing lands of the world ; whilst, by the aid of suitable artificial manures, it has, in one year, yielded as much as 55 bushels per acre ; and has, on the average of 50 years, given much more than the average of the whole of the United Kingdom under ordinary cultivation. What part artificial manures will play in the agriculture of the future it is difficult to foretell. Much will depend on the stores of phosphates and of potash which may be found available for use throughout the world. With regard to nitrates, as Sir William Crookes has pointed out, nitrogen exists in enormous quantities in the air in the free state, but plants require it to be supplied to them in a fixed or com- bined condition. Whether we go to water— as at Niagara — for the source of power, or have recourse to wind or steam, the question of a home manufacture of nitrate from the free nitrogen of the atmosphere, to supply the wants of agriculture, is a very important one. Nitrate of lime contains more nitric acid than nitrate of soda, and lime is cheaper than soda, and 16 nitrate of lime might prove the better manure in some cases ; but its deliquescence might prove a difficulty, both in trans- port and use. To sum up on the world's wheat supply : — It may be said that, whilst wheat is capable of producing very large crops under favourable conditions as to soil, climate, and manuring, it possesses a remarkable power of obtaining food from a poor soil. It can stand a considerable amount of frost, and it can thrive over an immense area of the world's surface. Although endorsing all that Sir William Crookes says as to the im- portance of wheat as a food, we cannot adopt his desponding views in regard to the future supplies of it. That we may have considerable fluctuations in produce and in price, the result of war, or of the vicissitudes of the seasons in different countries, is very probable ; but we believe that there will always be a sufficient supply forthcoming, for those who will find the money to purchase it at a remunerative price. Spollisuoode & Co, Printers, Kew-ttreet tiqvare, London,