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 Cornell University Library 
 
 HA37 .U5 1899b 
 
 The federal census; 
 
 olin 
 
 3 1924 030 375 145 
 
Publications 
 
 OF THE 
 
 American Economic Association 
 
 New Series. No. 2. 
 
 THE FEDERAL CENSUS 
 
 CRITICAL ESSAYS 
 
 BY MEMBERS OF THE 
 
 AMERICAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION 
 
 COI,l,ECTEr) 
 
 AND EBITED BY 
 
 A SPECIAL COMMITTEE 
 
 MARCH, 1899. 
 
 PDBI<ISHED FOR THE 
 
 American Economic Association 
 
 BY THE MACMII,I,AN COMPANY 
 
 NEW YORK. 
 LOKDON : SWAN SONNENSCHEIN & CO. 
 
A.3?3^/t 
 
 Copyright 1899, by 
 American Economic Association 
 
 7T»,.4j(y*<r ^*"fnia' oiu^.^ c*/>AA^ ^^^ *^ 
 
 PRESS OF 
 
 Andrds & Church, 
 ithaca, n. y., 
 
 -1)3 
 
CONTENTS. 
 
 Report of the Committee on the Scope and Method of 
 THE Twelfth Census 1-7 
 
 Population ; 
 
 Area, Population, Birthplace, Migration and Conjugal Con- 
 dition, Walter F. Willcox 8-37 
 
 Area (8) — Population (9) — Density of Population (11) — 
 Center of Population (12) — Birthplace (14) — Proportion of 
 Foreign born Population in the United States ( 1 7 ) — Propor- 
 tion of Native Population in Foreign Countries (18) — Foreign 
 born in American Cities (22) — Interstate Migration (25) — 
 Conjugal Condition (29). 
 
 Colored Population of African Descent, W. Z. Ripley 38-48 
 
 The Census of the North American Indians, Franz Boas 49-53 
 
 Age, Sex, Dwellings and Families, and Urban Population, 
 
 George K. Holmes 54-67 
 
 Age (55) — Sex (60) — Dwellings and Families (60) — Urban 
 Population (65). 
 
 Illiteracy and Educational Statistics, Davis R. Dewey (>^n 
 
 Illiteracy (68) — Educational Statistics (74). 
 
 Statistics of Occupations, Richmond Mayo-Sniith 78-107 
 
 Introduction (78) — Method of the Eleventh Census (84) — 
 Results of the Eleventh Census and Methods of Analysis (91 ) 
 — Occupation and Sex (92) — Occupation and Age (94) — 
 Method and Scope of the Twelfth Census (102) — Appendix : 
 Previous Censuses in the United States ( 105 ) . 
 
 Vital and Social Statistics. 
 The Mortality Statistics of the Eleventh Census, Cressy L. 
 
 Wilbur 108-120 
 
 Fundamental Imperfections of the Census Statistics of Mor- 
 tality (108) — Registration and Non-registration Areas (no) — 
 Systematic Neglect of Non-registration States (in) — the 
 Elastic Scale of Proportional Deaths (113) — Misleading In- 
 ferences from Proportional "Death Rates" (116) — Conclu- 
 sions and Recommendations (119). 
 
iv Contents. 
 
 Mortality Statistics of the United States Census, Irving 
 
 Fisher, 121-169 
 
 Inaccuracy (121) — Limit of Accuracy (131) — Death Rates, 
 (135) — "Corrected" Death Rates (141) — Average Life Times, 
 ( 148) — Life Tables ( 157) — Suggestions ( 165 )— Literature ( 167 ). 
 
 Statistics of Crime in the United States Census, Roland P. 
 
 Falkner 170-183 
 
 Statistics of Crime prior to 1890 {170) — Census of 1890 (173) 
 — General Criticism of the Census Statistics of Crime (179) — 
 Propositions for the Twelfth Census (182) — Notes on Foreign 
 Statistics of Crime (183.) 
 
 Pauperism and Benevolence, Samuel M. Lindsay 184-203 
 
 Treatment of Pauperism and Benevolence in earlier Cen- 
 suses {185) — The Eleventh Census (19s) — Value of Census 
 Statistics of Pauperism and Benevolence (199) — Suggestions, 
 (202). 
 
 AGRICUI,TURE AMD FARMS : 
 
 Agriculture, N. I. Stone 204-218 
 
 Cereals (208) — Fruit Growing, Market Gardening, etc., 
 (209) — Live Stock (209) — Implements and Machinery (209) 
 — Working Force Employed on a Farm (210) — Fertilizers 
 (211) — Appendix: Suggested Tables (216). 
 
 Farm and Home Proprietorship and Real Estate Mortgage 
 
 Indebtedness, David Kinley 219-245 
 
 Introduction (219) — Characteristics of the Two Volumes 
 considered together (223) — The Volume on Proprietorship and 
 Indebtedness of Farms and Homes (226) — Criticism of Results 
 Presented (230) — Real Estate Mortgages (236) — Conclusions 
 (244)- 
 
 Transportation : 
 
 The Statistics of Transportation, Einery R. Johnson and Walter 
 E. Weyl 246-256 
 
 Manufactures : 
 
 Manufactures in the Federal Census, 5". N. D. North 257-302 
 
 The Earlier Censuses of Manufactures (258) — The Defective 
 Standard of Measurement (265) — Factory Product and Trade 
 Product (269) — Gross, "Net" and Actual Values (275) — De- 
 fective Analysis and Misleading Percentages (279) — Capital 
 in Manufacturing (283) — Classified Wage Returns (298). 
 
Contents. v 
 
 The Report of the Eleventh Census on Manufactures, William 
 
 M. Steuart 303-327 
 
 Census Schedules (304) — Canvass of Cities (306) — Different 
 Industries (310) — Cost of Product (313) — Increase in Product, 
 (318) — Employees and Wages (320) — Capital (323). 
 
 Statistics of Manufactures in Cities, Worthington C. Ford 328-342 
 
 Statistics of Manufactures in Earlier Censuses (328) — in the 
 Census of 1890 (333) — Cost of Production {335) — Employees 
 and Wages (338. ) 
 
 Wage Statistics and the Federal Census, Charles J. Bullock, 343-368 
 Wages in the Earlier Censuses (343) — Ninth Census (345) — 
 Tenth Census (347) — the Massachusetts Census of 1885 (349) 
 — Mr. Weeks's Investigations (351) — Census of 1890 (353) — 
 Comparison with Tenth Census (356) — "Average" Earnings 
 (363)— Suggestions (364.) 
 
 Wealth, Debt and Taxation : 
 
 Valuation and Taxation, Carl C. Plehn 369-414 
 
 General Introduction (368) — The Wealth of the Nation (372) 
 — Assessed Valuation of Personal Property Taxed and Ad Va- 
 lorem Taxation (397) — Receipts and Expenditures of National 
 and Local Governments (405) — General Conclusions (409) — 
 Appendix : Inadmissible Comparisons in the Eleventh Census, 
 
 (411). 
 Suggestions in Regard to the Statistics of Municipal Finance 
 
 in the Census of igoo 415-465 
 
 Summary of Principal Suggestions (414) — General Sugges- 
 tions (416) — Statistics of Indebtedness (425) — Assessed Valua- 
 tion and Ad Valorem Taxation (429) — Revenue and Expendi- 
 ture (429) — Receipts (440) — Expenditures (442) — Final Con- 
 siderations (448) — Appendix I : Summary (455) — Appendix 
 II: Schedules for Debts and Assets (455) — Appendix III: 
 Schedules for Revenues and Expenditures (456). 
 
 The Scope and Method of the Twelfth Census, William C. 
 
 Hunt 466-494 
 
 History of Census Work (466) — The Eleventh Census (473) 
 — Present Outlook (478) — Supervisors and Enumerators (479) 
 —Tabulation of Returns (488). 
 
 Extracts from Letters 49S-503 
 
 Appendix : Provisions of Census Laws of 1889 and 1899 504-510 
 
 Index 511-516 
 
Cornell University 
 Library 
 
 The original of this book is in 
 the Cornell University Library. 
 
 There are no known copyright restrictions in 
 the United States on the use of the text. 
 
 http://www.archive.org/details/cu31924030375145 
 
REPORT OF THE COMMITTEE ON THE 
 
 SCOPE AND METHOD OF THE 
 
 TVv'EEFTH CENSUS. 
 
 The Association at its Cleveland meeting in December, 
 1897, authorized the appointment of a Committee to in- 
 quire into the scope and method of the eleventh census, 
 with a view of determining what ought to be attempted 
 at the next. This Committee was duly appointed, and 
 begs to report as follows : ^ 
 
 The Committee determined to undertake a review of 
 the eleventh census ; and for this purpose it invited 
 various members of the Association and others to cooper- 
 ate by preparing critical articles on particular portions of 
 the census. In order to extend this cooperation still fur- 
 ther, and especially to discover what might seem weak 
 points in the eleventh census, and inquiries desirable to 
 be elaborated in the twelfth, it addressed a circular letter 
 to all the members of the Association asking them to 
 reply to certain questions.^ 
 
 'Presented to the Association, December 28, 1898. 
 
 ^The letter was as follows : 
 
 Dear Sir : — At the meeting of the Association in Cleveland, Dec. 
 29-31, 1897, a committee was appointed to consider The Scope and 
 Method of the Twelfth Census. The committee proposes to make a 
 study of the methods and results of the last census for the purpose of 
 suggesting what may reasonably be expected from the next. The 
 effort, however, will be constructive rather than destructive, its chief 
 object being to form an intelligent public opinion upon this important 
 scientific undertaking, — the most important of the kind in the world. 
 The committee has secured the cooperation of a number of members 
 of the Association interested in particular portions of the subject. An 
 analysis will be made of the more important topics of census inquiry, 
 under the following heads : — 
 
2 American Economic Association. 
 
 The circular letter was not successful ; only about 
 sixty replies were received. Doubtless many members 
 of the Association, while interested in the census, did 
 not consider it worth while to answer the inquiries un- 
 less they had some specific criticism or recommendation 
 to make. Some replies were of considerable value in 
 pointing out errors in the eleventh census and making 
 suggestions for the twelfth, and they have been utilized 
 by the committee and by the persons making special re- 
 ports. A brief digest of them will be prepared by the 
 Committee to accompany the papers if they are pub- 
 lished in monograph form. 
 
 On the other hand, the invitation to cooperate with 
 the Committee in carefully reviewing certain portions 
 
 a. Methods and results of the last census. 
 
 b. Scope and method of the twelfth census. 
 
 c. Experience of other countries, references and bibliography. 
 These studies will be edited by the committee, reported upon at the 
 
 next meeting of the Association, discvissed, and (if the Association 
 approve ) the whole printed as a monograph. It is believed that such a 
 work will furnish a basis for scientific judgment, will concentrate in- 
 telligent opinion upon the census and be a contribution of permanent 
 value to the science of statistics. 
 
 The committee respectfully asks your cooperation in this undertak- 
 ing by answering the questions on the accompanying sheet and mak- 
 ing such other suggestions as you may deem important. All replies 
 will be treated as confidential and they need not be signed. 
 Very truly yours, 
 
 RICHMOND MAYO-SMITH, 
 WALTER F. WILLCOX, 
 CARROLIv D. WRIGHT, 
 ROLAND P. FALKNER, 
 DAVIS R. DEWEY, 
 
 Committee. 
 (a) Have you made use of the eleventh census and if so, of the Ab- 
 stract, Compendium or Quarto Volumes ? (b) Which volumes or parts 
 have you found most useful ? { c ) Have you detected any gross errors 
 in the eleventh census and if so, what are they? (d) Is there any 
 special information which you think might be furnished by the 
 twelfth census and which is not in the eleventh census ? 
 
Report of Cominittee on the Twelfth Census. 3 
 
 of the census work met with the heartiest response. 
 The result is a series of papers by independent authors 
 upon specific topics which togetlier constitute a very 
 valuable commentary upon the federal census and sta- 
 tistical mechod in general. The Committee made no 
 effort to supervise these contributions, even to the ex- 
 tent of securing uniformity of treatment or proportionate 
 length. Nor did the variety of topics demand the same 
 kind of treatment. Each author was obliged, therefore, 
 to interpret, according to his own notions, the general 
 plan of the Committee as outlined in their letter, and to 
 carry it out as the nature of the subject allowed. While 
 the essays vary in length and in method yet each will be 
 found complete in itself and following the central idea, 
 viz. : a review of the method and results of the eleventh 
 census with a view to furnishing suggestions regarding 
 the scope and method of the next. Each author is re- 
 sponsible for his own assertions, both of fact and opin- 
 ion, and in no case should the Committee be held to in- 
 dorse the views or conclusions of the contributors. The 
 Committee believes, however, that all the essays have 
 been written without personal bias or prejudice and with 
 a sincere desire to advance the interests of science and 
 of good statistical method in our census work. 
 
 The Committee has not considered critically all the 
 points raised in these elaborate papers but submits the 
 following general conclusions : 
 
 I. Throughout the papers, there is criticism not so 
 much of the accuracy of the census returns as of the 
 treatment of the data and of a lack of continuity from 
 census to census. Both defects we believe to be largely 
 due to the insufficient time allowed by law for preparing 
 plans and schedules. Among the most effective means 
 of overcoming these difficulties are the establishment of 
 
4 Avierican Economic Association. 
 
 a permanent census organization, which this association 
 has already advocated, and its subordination to civil 
 service rules. 
 
 II. The Committee believes that the work of the 
 census is seriously impeded by the number and variety 
 of the investigations ordered, and that in consequence 
 fundamental inquiries cannot receive adequate attention. 
 A number of subordinate inquiries might advantageously 
 be transferred to established bureaus or departments 
 which are equipped Vv^ith expert agents and some of 
 which now publish annual volumes of kindred statistics. 
 By this means the duplication of reports would be 
 avoided or minimized; and with legislation giving such 
 offices power and means to secure adequate returns, the 
 results would be more satisfactory. The following sub- 
 jects might be transferred to the offices named : Irriga- 
 tion to the Department of Agricultiire or the Geological 
 Survey ; Fisheries to the Fish Commission ; Mineral 
 Industries to the Geological Survey ; I^and Transporta- 
 tion to the Interstate Commerce Commission ; Water 
 Transportation to the proper bureau of the Treasury 
 Department ; Statistics of Schools to the Bureau of 
 Education ; Indians (except their enumeration) to the 
 Bureau of Indian Affairs ; Real F,state Mortgages to the 
 Department of Ivabor. 
 
 III. The following analysis of various classes of de- 
 fects or weaknesses in method which have been empha- 
 sized by the writers of the papers may be suggestive. 
 
 I. The lack of comparability in the data from census 
 to census. This is not in itself a defect provided that 
 the successive census enumerations represent improve- 
 ment. It is discussed in several places as follows : the 
 grouping of occupations, especially the inclusion of 
 miners first under manufactures, then under agriculture ; 
 
Report of Committee on the Twelfth Census. 5 
 
 the classification changes also in minor points. (Mayo- 
 Smith) ; the impossibility of comparing employment of 
 children in the tenth and eleventh censuses on account 
 of the different age classification. (?iIayo-Smith) ; in the 
 statistics of manufactures, changes in the definition of 
 capital. (North) ; difEerences in methods of estimating 
 national wealth. (Plehn). 
 
 2. The lack of co-ordination. After the census of 
 population, the most important work of the census is 
 devoted to statistics of the productive industries — agri- 
 culture, manufactures, mining, and fisheries. These in- 
 quiries shijuld be more closely associated in method of 
 presentation with one another, so that more of the facts 
 available in one might be available in the others, as for 
 instance the number of persons employed, the capital 
 invested, the wages paid, etc. A still further lack of 
 uniformity is found in the methods of tabulation pur- 
 sued in the different volumes. The general geographi- 
 cal groupings of the states adopted in the volumes on 
 Population should be preserved throughout the other 
 volumes, with special groupings for particular condi- 
 tions. The lack is also seen in the relation of different 
 branches (^f investigation. For instance, facts are asked 
 with regard to criminals which are not asked in regard 
 to the general population. (Falkner). The statistics of 
 school attendance are not adequately compared with 
 similar statistics published in the monograph on Edu- 
 cation. (Dewey). Figures for persons employed in 
 manufacture given in the occupation statistics do not 
 accord with those given in the volume on Zslanufactures. 
 (North). 
 
 3. Faults of Method. 
 
 a. Certain investigations relating to matters of the 
 greatest interest fail to give adequate results because the 
 
6 American Economic AssociaHon. 
 
 basis of the inquiry is at fault. In this class belong all 
 attempts to secure the annual rate for crime, births, and 
 deaths by direct enumeration at a given time without 
 recourse to registration or other continuous records. 
 (Falkner, Wilbur, Fisher). The inquiry as to months 
 unemployed during the census year is of a similar char- 
 acter. (Mayo— Smith). 
 
 b. Questions which cannot be answered, such as degree 
 of intermixture of white and negro blood. (Ripley). 
 
 c. The tabulations are in some cases omitted, in some 
 defective, and in some over-elaborated, e. g.^ relation to 
 head of family (Holmes), language of those who do not 
 speak English (Dewey), nativities of the foreign-born 
 illiterate (Dewey), number of the dependents in relation 
 to those employed (Mayo-Smith). 
 
 d. There are certain faults of classification which are 
 found in both schedules and tabulations, e. g., statistics 
 of occupations, especially distribution of " laborers not 
 specified " (Mayo-Smith), classification of the size of 
 farms (Stone), statistics of taxation and wealth (Plehn), 
 municipal receipts and expenditures (Gardner). 
 
 4. Faults in the textual analysis of the figures. An- 
 alyses which attempt to show cost of production or the 
 relation of capital to product, or an average wage 
 (North, Steuart, Ford, Bullock). Comparisons which 
 disregard the varying sex and age constitution of the 
 different sections of the country and the different ele- 
 ments of the population, e. g:, for crime (Falkner), 
 education (Dewey), pauperism (lyindsay), occupations 
 (Mayo-Smith), registration and non-registration areas 
 (Wilbur). 
 
 IV. The Committee congratulates itself and the 
 Association upon this noteworthy collection of papers, 
 
Report of Committee on the Twelfth Census. 7 
 
 the result of the scientific zeal and effort of so many 
 
 men. It would recommend to the Association the 
 
 immediate publication of the same as a Monograph/ 
 
 and believes that such publication will bring honor on 
 
 the Association and will advance science. 
 
 Richmond Mayo-Smith, 
 
 Walter F. Willcox, 
 
 Carroll D. Wright, 
 
 Roland P. Falkner, 
 
 Davis R. Dewey, 
 
 Committee. 
 
 ' At the meeting of the Association, December 27-29, 1898, to which 
 this report was presented, it was resolved by the Council to print the 
 papers as a Monograph, and in fulfillment of that order the present 
 work is published. 
 
POPULATION. 
 
 Area, Population, Birthplace, Migration and Conjugal 
 Condition. 
 
 Area} — The area of a country means not the number 
 of square units of surface it actually contains, but the 
 number it would contain if every part lay exactly at 
 the level of the sea with no allowance for elevation or 
 irregularities of surface. The area of any considerable 
 portion of the earth's surface, such as a state or county, 
 is measured not on the earth itself but on a map repre- 
 senting it and hence the accuracy of the measurement 
 depends upon that of the map. Within the United 
 States all degrees of accuracy in surveys and maps may 
 be found from the brilliant results achieved by the 
 Coast and Geodetic Survey to the uncertainty in the 
 location of the boundary lines between Virginia and 
 West Virginia or around Alaska, an uncertainty which 
 leaves ample room for an error of some hundreds of 
 square miles in the former case and of some thousands 
 in the latter. In general it is probably true that the 
 boundaries of the country are located and mapped 
 more accurately than those of the states, and these again 
 more accurately than those of the counties. Hence the 
 confidence to be felt in an ofHcial statement of the area 
 of a part of the United States varies with the extent of 
 territory, the larger it is, other things equal, the less the 
 probable margin of error. This country contains no 
 island states but on its borders are eight island counties, 
 two on the Pacific coast, two in the Great L/akes, and 
 
 'As the writer has treated the subjects of Area, Population, and 
 Density of Population at greater length in recent publications of the 
 Association, he may refer to American Economic Association, Studies, 
 :2o^ -257 and 385-455. 
 
Area, Population, Birthplace, etc. 9 
 
 four on the Atlantic. Six of these have been measured 
 by a competent expert on the accurate maps of the 
 Coast or Lake Surveys and the results given out by the 
 Census Office in 1890' depart from his conclusions by 
 from five to thirty-one per cent. The area of Long 
 Island, including adjoining islands, is given as 1007 
 square miles, while its true area is -within one per cent of 
 1353.8. It would have been helpful to students if the 
 facts regarding the determination of areas and the degree 
 of confidence to which they are entitled had been men- 
 tioned in the publications of the Census Office. 
 
 Population. — The population of the earth as a whole 
 is an unambiguous phrase, for it can mean nothing else 
 than the number of people living on the earth. But 
 the phrase, population of a countrj', demands definition 
 of the word country before it is clear. Country like 
 continent or island may mean a certain part of the 
 earth's land surface or like family or state it may 
 mean an organized group of human beings. In the 
 former sense one ma)' speak of the area of a country 
 but not of the area of a tribe, in the latter sense one 
 may speak of the opinion of a country but not of the 
 opinion of an island. In the phrase, the population of a 
 country, as popularly understood neither of the two 
 meanings is excluded. If country means only a certain 
 portion of land surface, the relation its population would 
 sustain would be merely that of physical presence. If 
 country means also an organization of human beings 
 various other relations may be conceived such as domi- 
 cile or citizenship. In the former sense of country its 
 population is the number of human beings on it at a 
 certain moment, in the latter sense its population is the 
 number of residents. The latter is the usual popular 
 
 1 Eleventh Census. Bulletin 23, 
 
10 America7i Economic Association. 
 
 meaning of population, the former is its technical and 
 scientific meaning, for if a word is to be used for pui'- 
 poses of scientific investigation, it must be susceptible 
 of such definition as to facilitate the inclusion or exclu- 
 sion of any case that arises. The test of physical pres- 
 ence or absence at a certain moment can be easily and 
 accurately applied, the test of residence is often a puzzle 
 even to the courts and turns largely upon a careful bal- 
 ance of probabilities regarding intent. Hence the trend 
 of European practice has been to define population for 
 census purposes by physical presence, but in this regard 
 American custom follows popular usage and the popula- 
 tion of the United States means the number of inhabi- 
 tants on the census day. 
 
 The word population is used in the census volumes 
 in three senses : (i) all the inhabitants of the country ; (2) 
 all except those on Indian reservations or in Alaska ; (3) 
 the inhabitants of the states alone, excluding also the 
 territories. These are called respectively the total or 
 aggregate population, the general population and the 
 constitutional population. It would increase the value 
 of the twelfth census if the suggestion made in the 
 Eleventh Census ' could be adopted and the first and 
 second meanings made to coincide by including the 
 people on reservations under the general population. 
 
 Probably the best test of the accuracy of a census is 
 its agreement with the results of previous and subse- 
 quent counts. Over one-fourth the people of the United 
 States (twenty-seven per cent) have been counted by 
 state authority since 1890 and a comparison of these re- 
 sults shows that the last federal enumeration was prob- 
 ably within one per cent of the truth. I believe that 
 the faults of census legislation and administration have 
 'Population, i: c. 
 
Area, Population, Birthplace, etc. ii 
 
 impaired public confidence in the results here considered 
 more than the facts warrant. 
 
 Density of Population. — The density of population 
 means the number of persons to a unit of surface and 
 thus is an abstract measure of the isolation, proximity 
 or crowding of the population. The smaller the di- 
 visions of a country for which the area and population 
 are known, the more detailed and fruitful the study of 
 the density of population may be made. 
 
 The census authorities might consider the wisdom of 
 ordering in connection with the twelfth census a 
 special study of cities in the United States above a cer- 
 tain limit of size, say 25,000. If this were done a 
 careful determination of the density of population of 
 each as a whole, and where possible by wards, would lead 
 to important results. The effort in that direction made 
 by the eleventh census, the preliminary results of 
 which appeared in Bulletin 100, was apparently not 
 carried to completion and the only inferences that can 
 be drawn from the census volumes regarding the density 
 of population of our cities by wards are to be gathered 
 from a table showing the number of persons to a dwell- 
 ing in each ward of every city.' A dwelling was de- 
 fined ^ as any building or place of abode in which any 
 person was living. A tenement house was considered 
 one house but a building with a dividing partition wall 
 and separate front doors was two or more dwellings. 
 In New York city there were over eighteen persons to 
 a dwelling while Hoboken had thirteen, Holyoke, Mass., 
 eleven and no other city large or small more than ten. 
 In the cities of the United States there were twenty-eight 
 wards with over fifteen persons to a dwelling. Of the 
 
 1 Eleventh Census. Compendium, i: S80-897. 
 
 ^ Eleventh Census. Instructions to Enumerators, 19. 
 
12 American Economic Association. 
 
 twenty-four wards in New York, twenty were among these 
 twenty-eight most crowded wards in the country, while 
 of the eight remaining, one wad in Brooklyn and two in 
 Hoboken. The fourteen most crowded wards in the 
 country measured by this test are all in New York. If 
 the next census should decide to make a study of the 
 density of population of our cities as wholes or by wards, 
 it might consider the wisdom of deducting from the total 
 area of each city the amount occupied by water sur- 
 face, parks, streets, etc., thus arriving at the built-up 
 surface. That such an effort if successful would result 
 in very different figures and order of density from that 
 reached by the ordinary method is shown by the follow- 
 ing table for ten European cities.' 
 
 Density per acre Density per acre 
 
 City. of total area. of built-up area. 
 
 Genoa 23 378, 
 
 Berlin 77 266 
 
 ]\Iilan 60 261 
 
 Vienna 53 238 
 
 Venice 98 215 
 
 Paris llS 159, 
 
 Florence 16 144, 
 
 Turin 62 1 19 
 
 Hamburg 27 107, 
 
 Dresden 31 104, 
 
 In the preceding figures the error committed in Bulle- 
 tin 100 of the eleventh census has been avoided at 
 least for the Italian cities and the built-up area has been 
 compared with the population living upon it and not 
 with the entire population of the city. 
 
 Center of Population. — This concept is defined as 
 " the center of gravity of the population of the country 
 
 '^Journal de la SociHe de Statisiigue de Paris, 25 : 486 quoting 
 Annales de Statisiigue du Royaiime d'ltatie, vol. 9 ( 18 
 
Area, Population, Birthplace, etc. 13 
 
 each individual being assumed to have the same weight." 
 It seems open to some objections. Under tlie definition 
 given the center of the world's population would be a 
 point probably nearer the center than the surface of the 
 earth. Granting that this is not consistent with the ex- 
 planation made in an earlier census that the country (or 
 earth) is treated as a plane surface, it may still be urged 
 that to regard all individuals as of equal weight and to 
 assume that the influence of each in determining; the 
 situation of the center of population increases with his 
 distance from the center involve very questionable 
 postulates. Statistical arguments constantly exaggerate 
 the resemblances between physical and social phe- 
 nomena. The individual like the atom is counted 
 always as one, never more or less. While individuals 
 differ in physical weight, they vary far more in social 
 influence. A physical body may be controlled by 
 gravity, a population is directed by public opinion. In 
 fixing the center of gravity of a physical mass a unit 
 gains power by remoteness, but in forming the public 
 opinion of a social group a unit loses power by the .same 
 fact. If the center of population is to be accepted as an 
 admi-ssible social concept rather than an illegitimate 
 transfer of a physical notion, its definition in my judg- 
 ment should be changed. The residents of Hawaii or 
 the Philippines should not have increased influence be- 
 cause of their remoteness. To be true to social condi- 
 tions their influence should be deemed less. But as no 
 measure of this diminution of influence might easily flnd 
 acceptance, the notion of the median point of population 
 might be substituted for that of the center. This is a 
 point such that half the population of the country lies 
 east and half west of its meridian, half north and half 
 south of its parallel. It oft'ers the practical advantage 
 
14 American Ecotiomic Association. 
 
 of being far easier to locate than the center/ and also, I 
 believe, the advantage of being nearer the average man's 
 interpretation of the term. 
 
 Birthplace. — Before seeking to interpret any census 
 figures, effort should be made to determine the degree of 
 confidence to be placed in them. An error in the state- 
 ment of birthplace might arise from ignorance or from 
 intention. It is not improbable that among the negroes 
 and the more ignorant native whites an appreciable pro- 
 portion did not know the state in which they vv'ere born. 
 
 - Many immigrants, especially such as came in childhood, 
 may not have known in what country they were born. 
 Other immigrants, who had become Americanized, may 
 have misrepresented the facts deliberately to the enumer- 
 ators. It has been estimated that the latter personally 
 met about one person in seven. If so, the information 
 regarding the birthplaces of the other six-sevenths must 
 
 -^lave been derived second hand and hurriedly. Such 
 considerations lead one to conclude that errors in the re- 
 turns of birthplace may have been common. Can any 
 evidence in favor of or against this possibility be derived 
 from analyzing the figures ? Birthplace and birth time 
 are related facts. If one does not know his birth time, 
 and so his age or the ages of the family for which he is 
 answering, it would afford some support for the belief 
 that he may not be accurate in returning birthplace. 
 The degree of inaccuracy in the return of ages may be 
 estimated from the figures themselves. When an age is 
 incorrectly reported, it is likely to appear as a round 
 number, most often a multiple of ten, less often as an 
 odd multiple of five, least often as a multiple of two but 
 not of ten. The evident errors in the table of ages may 
 
 ^ In 1890 it was about seventy miles northeast of the center of popu- 
 lation and near the western boundary of Ohio in Darke county. 
 
Area, Population, Birthplace, etc. 15 
 
 be corrected with more or less success by mathematical 
 processes. A study of the table shows that persons are 
 more apt to misstate tbeir age as they advance in years.' 
 Probably the same is true of birthplace. In measuring 
 the tendency in various states and social classes to con- 
 centrate on certain years of age I have employed the 
 following method : The entire number of persons be- 
 tween twenty-eight and sixty-two years of age inclusive 
 was found from the age tables. Then it was assumed 
 that the true number of persons who were thirty, thirt)''- 
 five, forty, forty-five, fifty, fifty-five or sixty years of age 
 would be one-fifth of the former sum. The sum of those 
 actually reported at one of these seven ages was also 
 derived from the tables, and was found uniformly to 
 exceed the true number as computed. The percentage 
 of excess gives an approximate measure of the inaccuracy 
 with which the ages of adults are reported. From such 
 a table it appears that the ages of foreign born whites 
 are reported with about double the inaccuracy prevalent 
 among native whites, and those of negroes with about 
 double the inaccuracy of the white immigrants. Hence 
 it seems probable that statements regarding the birth- 
 place of negroes are to be given less confidence than 
 those regarding the birthplace of whites. In favor of 
 the accuracy of tlie returns of birthplace of the foreign 
 born it may still be urged that the country of birth is 
 less likely to slip the memory than the year or the state. 
 It may be granted that, other things equal, foreigners 
 report the country of birth more accurately than natives 
 do the state. But this can hardly outweigh the greater 
 ' ignorance of the foreign population. Foreigners or cer- 
 tain classes of foreigners have a deeper and more wide- 
 spread prejudice to encounter than that against the 
 1 Am. Stat. Assn. Publications 5 : 133, (1896). 
 
1 6 American Economic A ssociatio7i . 
 
 natives of any American state, and this feeling would 
 create or strengthen the motives for misrepresentation. 
 Some further evidence ma)- be derived from the figures 
 for native and foreign born whites by age and sex. In 
 1880 among every 10,000 native whites 5,051 were 
 males. In 1890 among every 10,000 native whites ten 
 years of age and over 5,067 were males. The latter 
 class must have been the survivors of the former, and 
 yet the proportion of males has increased by 16 in 
 10,000. If this were correct it would be due to a 
 higher mortality of females. Assuming that the average 
 number of native whites during the decade was the 
 arithmetic mean between the number in 1880 and the 
 number over ten in 1890, and that the annual number 
 of deaths v^'as one-tenth the decennial decrease, the 
 death rate for males was 10.2 and for females 10.9. It 
 seems doubtful whether such an excess in the female 
 death rate is more probable than the return of a certain 
 number of foreign born males as native. The excess of 
 males in 1880 among the native whites increased in 
 1890 among the survivors by nearly 75,000. In 1880 
 there were nearly a quarter of a million more male than 
 female children under fifteen among the native whites. 
 In 1890 the excess between ten and twenty-five had 
 fallen to le,ss than sixty thousand. But in 1880 among 
 the native whites between fifteen and fifty there were 
 only sixty thousand more males than females, while in 
 1890 the excess of native white males between twenty- 
 five and sixty was a third of a million. If this surpris- 
 ing distribution of the excess be due in an appreciable 
 degree to misstatements of foreign born males, it should 
 be especially apparent in the northern and western states 
 where the foreign born whites are over one-fifth of the 
 
Area, Population, Birthplace, etc. 17 
 
 total white population, and of little influence in the 
 southern states, where they are less than one twenty- 
 fifth. Above the age of twenty the proportion of males 
 among the native whites in the northern states is uni- 
 formly greater than in the southern states, as the follow- 
 ing table shows : 
 
 PROPORTION OF MALES IN 1890 AMONG NATIVE WHITES. 
 
 Males in 10,000. 
 
 Southern Northern Excess in 
 
 Age gronp. states. states. northern states. 
 
 20-24 4981 5003 22 
 
 25-29 4984 5070 86 
 
 30-34 5142 5163 21 
 
 35-44 5125 5167 42 
 
 45-54 4944 5095 151 
 
 55-64 4987 5160 173 
 
 65 -I- 5032 5021 -II 
 
 On the whole it seems probable that a certain number 
 of foreign born residents were reported as natives, that 
 this was more common among males than females either 
 because they were more numerous, less informed, less 
 veracious, or less likely to be seen personally by the 
 enumerators and so to render accurate information. 
 Many a boarding-house keeper must have reported for 
 lodgers whose birthplace was unknown. This tendency 
 to call oneself a native apparently increases with age 
 and the progressive Americanization it involves. 
 
 Proportion of Foreign born Population in the United 
 States. — It appears from the following table that no other 
 country in the northern hemisphere has received so large 
 a portion of its population from abroad. The percent- 
 age of foreign born in the population of various countries 
 was as follows : 
 
Percent of 
 foreign born. 
 
 32.6 
 
 30.0 (?) 
 
 25-3 (?) 
 14.8 
 
 13-4 
 7.6 
 6.4 
 2.8 
 
 2.8 
 
 2.2 
 
 1-7 
 1.6 
 
 I.I 
 
 I.O 
 
 .6 
 
 •5 
 
 ■4 
 
 18 American Economic Association. 
 
 PERCENTAGE OF FOREIGN BORN. 
 
 Country. Date. 
 
 Seven Australasian Colonies 1891 
 
 Uragiiay ? 
 
 Argentine Republic 1895 
 
 United States l8go 
 
 Canada 1891 
 
 Luxemburg 1890 
 
 Switzerland 1888 
 
 Belgium 1890 
 
 Bulgaria 1888 
 
 France 1891 
 
 Netherlands 1889 
 
 Greece (1879) 
 
 United Kingdom (1891) 
 
 Germany (1890) 
 
 Austria-Hungary (1890) 
 
 Sweden 1890 
 
 Spain 1887 
 
 Italy (l88l) 
 
 The United States have about half the proportion of 
 foreign born found in three countries of the southern 
 hemisphere, about the same proportion as in Canada and 
 about twice the proportion of the European states with 
 most foreigners, viz., Switzerland and the diminutive 
 Grand Duchy of Ltixemburg, smaller and less populous 
 than Rhode Island. 
 
 Proportion of Native Population in Foreign Countries. 
 — The converse of the number of foreign born in the 
 United States is the number of American born in foreign 
 countries. Our twelfth census might well attempt, as 
 do those of some other countries, to report the number of 
 Americans by birth residing outside the United States, 
 and as an effort in this direction the following table has 
 been compiled mainly from the census reports of foreign 
 countries : 
 
Area, Population, Birthplace, etc. 19 
 
 PERSONS OF AMERICAN BIRTH I,IVING ABROAD. 
 
 Country of Residence. Date. Number. 
 
 Canada 1891 80,915 
 
 United Kingdom 1891 31,412 
 
 Germany 1890 17,550 
 
 Seven Australasian Colonies 1891 8,139 
 
 Austria-Hungary 1890 2,099 
 
 Hawaii 1890 1,928 
 
 Sweden 1890 1,482 
 
 Italy 1881 1,286 
 
 India 1891 1,091 
 
 Switzerland 1888 986 
 
 Chile 1885 924 
 
 Japan 1890 899 
 
 Belgium 1890 414 
 
 Costa Rica 1892 204 
 
 Korea 1895 90 
 
 Samoa 1895 26 
 
 Total 149,445 
 
 The two countries not on the list which have probably 
 the greatest number of American born are France and 
 Mexico. In France there were, in 1886, 10,253 persons 
 whose nationality was returned as American North or 
 South. It may be fairly assumed that the number of 
 persons born in the United States and residing in France 
 in 1 89 1 was between five and ten thousand. 
 
 The absence of any figures for Mexico reduces one to 
 an estimate. For this purpose I have assumed that the 
 Americans in Mexico bear the same proportion to the 
 Mexicans in the United States that the Americans in 
 Canada do to the Canadians in the United States. This 
 gives the proportion : 980,938 Canadians in the United 
 States are to 80,915 Americans in Canada as 77,853 
 Mexicans in the United States are to the estimated 
 number of Americans in Mexico, which is thus found 
 to be 6,442. If this should be deemed too small an 
 estimate, attention may be called to the barriers of Ian- 
 
20 Atnerican Economic Association. 
 
 guage and of a lower standard of life for the working 
 classes south of the Rio Grande, and also to the fact 
 that in all the eighteen counties along our Mexican 
 frontier, from which emigration would mainly go out, 
 there are fewer than one hundred thousand (97,183) 
 natives of the United States, and over one-fourth of them 
 (25,577) are in southern California, where the motives 
 for crossing the Mexican frontier must be weak. On 
 the v/hole it seems probable that the natives of the 
 United States who have emigrated to foreign countries 
 are between 165,000 and 175,000, and I will assume the 
 number of 170,000.' To find the proportion this consti- 
 tutes of our total native population the number of 
 natives living in the country n]nst be known. The 
 census, which reports 53,372,703, does not include the 
 persons in Indian territory or Alaska, or on reservations. 
 One may assume tliat all Indians and the negroes of 
 Indian territory are natives. Of the persons of other 
 races living with Indians on reservations 98 per cent are 
 in Indian territory or Oklahoma, and may most fairly be 
 compared with the white population of Texas, where 
 91.3 per cent are native. Hence to the number just 
 given the following may be added : 
 
 Indians on reservations or in Indian tei-ritorj^ 187,447 
 
 Negroes in Indian territory iS,6',6 
 
 91.3 per cent of the remaining 117,381 residents of 
 
 Indian territorj' or reservations 107,200 
 
 Natives in Alaska 15,389 
 
 Total additions 330,672 
 
 Natives returned by census 53,372,703 
 
 Natives abroad 170 000 
 
 Total natives of United States 53,873,375 
 
 Percent, of total natives who have emigrated .32 
 
 ^The 18,000 "Americans" mentioned in Liberia must be mainly 
 African born descendants of emigrants. 
 
Area, Populatio7i, Birthplace, etc. 21 
 
 This table shows that only about one in three hundred 
 natives of the United States has emigrated, while as 
 seen before more than one in seven of the resident pop- 
 ulation is an immigrant. Probabl}' no country has so 
 large a proportion of immigrants and at the same time 
 so small a proportion of emigrants as the United States. 
 
 No direct and conclusive information upon this point 
 for Argentine Republic and Uraguay is obtainable, but 
 it may be noted that in twenty-one years, 1873-1893, 
 the emigrants from the Argentine Republic were over 
 half a million and more than one-third of the immi- 
 grants, while in Uraguay the emigrants for the six 
 years, 1884—90, were nearly three-fifths as many as the 
 immigrants.' 
 
 In the case of natives of the seven Australasian colo- 
 nies the Scotch census of 1891 reports the number found 
 in Scotland, but similar information is lacking in the 
 English and Irish censuses. On the assumption that in 
 England and Ireland the ratio of natives of Australasia 
 to all natives of British colonies and India was the same 
 as it was in Scotland,'- there were over twenty thousand 
 natives of Australasia in the United Kingdom, two-thirds 
 as many as the natives of the United States there. 
 Taking into account the enormous difference in the 
 number of natives of the two regions the return current 
 from Australasia to the United Kingdom is about four- 
 teen times as strong as the return current from the 
 United States to the mother country. 
 
 Of the total number of natives of Canada in Canada 
 
 ' 72,704 emigrants and 126,391 immigrants. 
 
 ^Natives of Australasia in Scotland (1891), 2,063. Natives of all 
 British colonies, including India, in Scotland, 13,607 ; in England and 
 Wales, 111,627 ; i" Ireland, 8,430. Estimated natives of Australasia 
 in United Kingdom. 20.265. Number in India, 845 ; in United States, 
 5,984; in Au.stralasia, 2,561,865. Minimum percentage abroad, i.o. 
 
22 ATnerican Economic Association. 
 
 and the United States nearh' nineteen per cent are in 
 this conntr)-. It seems clear, therefore, that when both 
 immigration and emigration are considered the United 
 States has gained more and lost less population than any 
 other country. 
 
 A study of the table giving the natives of the United 
 States abroad shows that probably no country in Europe 
 or Asia has received from this country a larger immigra- 
 tion than it has contributed. The same is true of Africa 
 except for L,iberia, which may be regarded as a localiza- 
 tion of the return current attendant upon all strong 
 currents of migration. The adjacent countries of this 
 continent have also sent hither many more natives than 
 they have received in return. Lack of data makes a 
 comparison for the West Indies, and Central and South 
 America impossible, but it is not unlikely that in every 
 important case, except possibly the Argentine Republic 
 and Uraguay, the northward current has been the 
 stronger. In fact the only direction in which the 
 United States has sent a demonstrably stronger current 
 of migration than it has attracted has been over the 
 Pacific to Hawaii and the Australasian colonies. 
 
 From scattered data relative to earlier foreign censuses 
 it seems probable that the emigrants from the United 
 States increased during the last decade more slowly than 
 the native population. 
 
 Foreign born in Americaii cities. — The high propor- 
 tion of foreigners in the urban population of the United 
 States is deemed by the census proof of a tendency to 
 cling to the cities. Thus it is said : " If the proportion 
 of the foreign born in the principal cities is contrasted 
 with the proportion of the foreign born in the country 
 at large, a very fair measure is obtained of their appe- 
 tency for urban life " and " the element of foreign birth 
 
Area, Population, Birthplace, etc. 23 
 
 seeks the cities with far greater avidity than does the 
 element of native birth.'" But it appears that "of all 
 the nationalities considered, the Mexicans showed the 
 least appetency for nrban life."^ 
 
 The last statement suggests that the difference may be 
 in the circumstances rather than the people. Natives 
 enter the United States by birth and this occurs mainly 
 in the country, foreigners enter it by migration and this 
 occurs mainly at the city ports. While the feebleness 
 of infancy is a barrier to the migration cityward of the 
 former, ignorance of the language and customs of the 
 country confine the great majority of foreigners for a time 
 to some colony of their countrymen in a great city. Dis- 
 persion of either element from the place of arrival is a 
 gradual process and is likely to be overlooked, but such a 
 dispersion of the foreign born from our cities is in rapid 
 progress. The increase of foreign born in the country 
 during the last decade was 2,570,000, a number that 
 measures the excess of the influx over the losses by death 
 or emigration. Nearh- all entered our cities and were 
 added at the start to our urban population. In 1880 the 
 foreign born population of our fifty largest cities was 
 2,330,000 and of the rest of the country 4,350,000. As- 
 suming that all immigrants came to these cities and stayed 
 there, the number in them in 1890 would have been 
 2,330,000 plus 2,570,000 or 4,900,000 plus the number 
 of deaths among the foreign born immigrants elsewhere 
 in the countrv. If there were any current out from the 
 cities, it must have resulted first in supplying the losses 
 from death among the rural foreign born and then in in- 
 creasing the number, while its effect in the cities would 
 appear in a decreased number of foreigners. Just these 
 
 'Eleventh Census, Population, irlxxxix. 
 ■"Ibid., cli. 
 
24 American Economic Association. 
 
 results appear. Instead of more than 4,900,000 foreign 
 born in these fifty cities in 1890 there were only 
 3,441,000. Instead of less than 4,350,000 in the rest of 
 the country there were 5,808,000. While the additions 
 were in the first instance to the cities and the substrac- 
 tions of death were evenly distributed, the adjustment 
 went on so rapidly that foreigners outside these cities in- 
 creased 34 per cent and within them only 48 per cent. 
 This would seem to indicate that the proportion in our 
 large cities was increasing faster than elsewhere, but it 
 must be remembered that these cities have had a very 
 rapid growth, of which the arrival and stay of immi- 
 grants have been only one aspect. These cities gained 
 in population 43.5 per cent during the decade and the rest 
 of the country only 21 per cent. Hence relatively to 
 population the smaller cities and rural districts of the 
 country gained in foreign born population faster than 
 the great cities ; and the eleventh census when properly 
 interpreted affords no evidence that between 1880 and 
 1890 tlie immigrant population as a whole remained 
 stagnating in our great cities. The following table 
 gives the figures for tlie fifty largest cities in 1880 and 
 the same cities in 1890. 
 
 FIFTY LARGEST CITIES. 
 
 Total Foreign Percent. For- 
 
 Population. born. eign born. 
 
 1880 7,793.903 2,330,374 29-90 
 
 1890 11,184,031 3,441,165 30.77 
 
 Per cent of increase 43.5 47.7 .87 
 
 REST OF COUNTRY. 
 
 1880 42,361,880 4,349,596 10.27 
 
 1890 51,438,219 5,808,382 11.29 
 
 Per cent of increase 21.4 33.5 1.02 
 
 Wide as the difference between city and country is 
 
 m 
 
Area, Population, Birthplace, etc. 25 
 
 the proportion of foreign born and mucli as the unparal- 
 leled immigration to our ports between 1880 and 1890 
 tended to increase it, still the percentage of foreign 
 born has increased more rapidly in the cities of less 
 than 56,000 people and the towns and country dis- 
 tricts than it has in the great cities. 
 
 Interstate Migration. — Enormous as the influx of 
 foreign born into the United States has been, the move- 
 ment of the native population from state to state is even 
 greater. The number living in another than their 
 native state is nearly one-fourth greater than the num- 
 ber of foreigners in the country, and when these num- 
 bers are compared with the populations giving rise to 
 them, the high mobility of the American population be- 
 comes yet more apparent. A study of these internal 
 migrations is rendered difficult by the complexity of 
 the census table.^ This gives the natives of each of fifty- 
 one territorial divisions residing at the time of the census 
 in each of forty-nine divisions. A table with twenty- 
 five hundred entries is too detailed to be intelligible. 
 For a survey of the subject I have treated the country 
 as composed of the five groups of states recognized by 
 the census. The results appear in the following tables : 
 
 NATIVES OF NORTH ATLANTIC STATES. 
 
 
 
 
 Increase 
 
 ( + ) 
 
 
 Number in 
 
 or Decrease 
 
 !(-)• 
 
 Place of Residence. 
 
 18S0. 
 
 1890. 
 
 Absolute. ] 
 
 Per cent. 
 
 North Atlantic group ___ 
 
 11,412,303 
 
 13,005,694 
 
 41,593,391 
 
 + 13-0 
 
 South Atlantic group 
 
 125,018 
 
 141,826 
 
 H- 16,808 
 
 + 13-5 
 
 North Central group ___ 
 
 1,684,774 
 
 1,550,668 
 
 — 134,106 
 
 - 8.0 
 
 South Central group ___ 
 
 59,333 
 
 68,766 
 
 + 9,433 
 
 +15-9 
 
 Western group 
 
 205,728 
 13,487,156 
 
 308,455 
 15,075,409 
 
 + 102,727 
 
 +49-9 
 
 United States _ 
 
 1,588,253 
 
 + 11. 8 
 
 
 
 The preceding table shows that the natives of the 
 > Eleventh Census, Population, i : 560-563. 
 
26 American Economic Association. 
 
 North Atlantic group who were living within that 
 region in 1890 had increased in a decade more than the 
 entire increase in the country. It follows that the abso- 
 lute number of emigrants fell. But, as the table shows, 
 this fall was consistent with a growth of migration to 
 three of the four other sections of the country. The rate 
 of increase in the number in the southern states was about 
 as rapid as the increase at home. In 1880 the North 
 Atlantic group retained within its limits 84.6 per cent 
 of its natives, while in 1890 the percentage had risen to 
 86.3. 
 
 NATIVES OF SOUTH ATI^ANTIC STATES. 
 
 
 
 
 Increase i 
 
 ;+) 
 
 
 Number in 
 
 or Decrease ( — ). 
 
 Place of Residence. 
 
 1880. 
 
 1890. 
 
 Absolute. ] 
 
 Per cent. 
 
 North Atlantic group 
 
 156,467 
 
 207,010 
 
 + 50,543 
 
 +32.3 
 
 South Atlantic group 
 
 7,173,979 
 
 8,325,844 
 
 +i, 151,845 
 
 + 16.I 
 
 North Central group 
 
 388,560 
 
 355,454 
 
 - 33,106 
 
 - 8.5 
 
 South Central group ___ 
 
 758,271 
 
 674.942 
 
 - 83,329 
 
 — II.O 
 
 Western group 
 
 32,437 
 
 53,642 
 9,616,872 
 
 + 21,205 
 
 +65.4 
 
 United States .___ 
 
 8,509,714 
 
 + 1,107,158 
 
 -1-13-0 
 
 This table shows that the natives of the South Atlantic 
 states, also, during the last decade manifested a weaker 
 tendency to migrate. Notwithstanding their total 
 increase of over a million in the country the number in 
 the central states north and south was less in 1890 by 
 considerably above one hundred thousand. On the 
 other hand the overflow from this group to the North 
 Atlantic and Western states increased by over seventy 
 thousand. The increase in the current to the North 
 Atlantic states was remarkable, that region having re- 
 ceived by 1890 sixty-five thousand more than it returned, 
 while in 1880 it had received only thirty-one thousand 
 more. 
 
Area, Population, Birthplace, etc. 
 
 27 
 
 NATIVES OF NORTH CENTRAI, STATES. 
 
 
 
 
 Increase ( + ) 
 
 
 Number in 
 
 or Decrease { — ). 
 
 Place of Residence. 
 
 1880. 
 
 1890. 
 
 Absolute Per cent. 
 
 North Atlantic group 
 
 101,879 
 
 138.419 
 
 + 36,540 +35-9 
 
 South Atlantic group ___ 
 
 48,310 
 
 67,897 
 
 + 19,587 +40.5 
 
 North Central group 
 
 11,807,697 
 
 15,685,746 
 
 +3,878,049 +32.8 
 
 South Central group 
 
 241,129 
 
 357,105 
 
 + 115,976 +48.1 
 
 Western group 
 
 257,144 
 
 609,398 
 16,858,565 
 
 + 352,254 +137.0 
 
 United States . 
 
 12,456,159 
 
 4,402,406 +35.4 
 
 
 
 When one considers the very rapid increase in the 
 natives of this group of states, it is not surprising to find 
 that the number of them in each of the other divisions has 
 risen during the decade. The unexpected result of tire 
 preceding table is the proof it affords that emigration 
 from the North Central states to each other group has 
 grown at a higher rate than the total native population 
 of the group. The net gain of the North Central group 
 from the North Atlantic fell in ten years from 1,583,000 
 in 1880 to 1,412,000 in 1890, or over ten per cent. 
 Similarly the net gain from the South Atlantic states 
 fell from 340,000 to 288,000, or fifteen per cent, and the 
 net gain from the South Central group fell from 310,000 
 to 195,000, or thirty-seven per cent, wliile the net loss to 
 the Western group increased from 243,000 to 585,000. 
 
 NATIVES OF SOUTH CENTRAL STATES. 
 
 
 
 
 Increase ( + ) 
 
 
 Numbers in 
 
 or Decrease ( — ). 
 
 Place of Residence. 
 
 1880. 
 
 1890. 
 
 Absolute. Per cent 
 
 North Atlantic group ___ 
 
 16,066 
 
 20,963 
 
 + 4,897 +30.5 
 
 South Atlantic group ___ 
 
 74,593 
 
 88,194 
 
 + 13,601 +18.2 
 
 North Central group ___ 
 
 551,715 
 
 552,193 
 
 + 478 + .1 
 
 South Central group ___ 
 
 7,583,235 
 
 9,465,322 
 
 + 1,881,087 +24.8 
 
 Western group 
 
 52,049 
 
 94,166 
 
 + 42,117 +80.9 
 
 United States 
 
 8,277,658 
 
 10,220,838 
 
 + 1,943,180 +23.5 
 
 This group, like the two Atlantic divisions, is charac- 
 terized by a decreasing mobility of population. The 
 
28 American Economic Association. 
 
 increase of natives remaining within the group has been 
 a little faster than their total increase anywhere within 
 the country'. But in this case migration to the North 
 Atlantic and ^^^estern states has grown faster than the re- 
 turn current to the South Atlantic group, while the 
 current north has just filled the gaps left by death. 
 
 NATIVES OF WESTERN STATES AND TERRITORIES. 
 
 Increase (H-) 
 
 Numbers iu or Decrease ( — ). 
 
 Place of Residence. iS8o. 1890. Absolute. Percent. 
 
 North Atlantic group __. 6,086 9,231 -t- 3,i45 +51-7 
 
 South Atlantic group 1,008 i,95i + 943 +93-5 
 
 North Central group Hi465 24,684 -f 10,219 -I-70.6 
 
 South Central group 3,079 5,855 H 2,776 -fgo.i 
 
 Western grotip 720,224 1,152,636 +432,412 --[-60.0 
 
 United States 744,862 1,194,357 -f- 449,495 +60.4 
 
 In the Western as in the North Central states the 
 mobility of the native population has not fallen. The 
 very small return current to the southern states had 
 nearl)' doubled during the decade, while the much more 
 important one to the North Central states has outstripped 
 decidedly that of the natives of the group. The low 
 average age of the natives of this group makes the re- 
 sult the more noteworthy. 
 
 From the data in the preceding tables the proportion 
 of the natives of each group in the country who were 
 living without the group in 1880 and 1890 may be 
 computed. 
 
 Group. Percent, of natives living outside in 
 
 1880. i8go. 
 
 North Atlantic 15.4 13.7 
 
 South Atlantic 15.7 13.4 
 
 South Central 8.4 7.4 
 
 North Central 5.2 7.0 
 
 Western 3.3 3.5 
 
 it seems that the difference between the groups is 
 
Area, Population, Birthplace, etc. 29 
 
 diminishing, long distance migration from the Atlantic 
 and Gulf states falling off, while that from the interior 
 and Pacific states is growing. 
 
 The following table prepared from the figures of the 
 preceding shows the changes of migration in the groups : 
 
 Percent of total Natives of Groups residing in 
 
 Group. 
 North Atlantic- 
 i88o_ 
 
 South Atlantic — 
 i88o___ 
 
 North Central— 
 1880. _ 
 iSgo... 
 
 South Central— 
 i88o__ 
 i890_^ 
 
 Western — 
 
 i88o_„ 
 l8qo__ 
 
 state of 
 
 some other 
 
 outside 
 
 
 birth. 
 
 state of group. 
 
 group. 
 
 Total. 
 
 76.8 
 
 7.8 
 
 15-4 
 
 100. 
 
 7S.5 
 
 7.8 
 
 1.3-7 
 
 100. 
 
 78.2 
 
 6.1 
 
 15-7 
 
 100. 
 
 81. 1 
 
 5-5 
 
 13-5 
 
 100. 
 
 76.9 
 
 17.9 
 
 5-2 
 
 100. 
 
 75.8 
 
 17.2 
 
 7.0 
 
 100. 
 
 80.1 
 
 "•5 
 
 8.4 
 
 100. 
 
 82.3 
 
 10.3 
 
 7-4 
 
 100. 
 
 88.5 
 
 8.1 
 
 3-4 
 
 100. 
 
 86.9 
 
 9.6 
 
 3-4 
 
 100. 
 
 Natives of the Western states and next to them of the 
 Southern states remain in greatest proportion in the state 
 of birth, while in the interior they leave the state most 
 frequently. In the Central and Western states the more 
 common form of migration has been within the group, 
 while along the Atlantic it has been to some state 
 beyond. 
 
 Conjugal condition. — Conjugal Condition means the 
 relation of the population to the social institution of 
 marriage. At the date of the census each person in the 
 country was either married or not married. The not 
 married either had never been married or had been but 
 were no longer. The marriages of the last class must 
 have ended either by death of the other party to the 
 
30 American Economic Association. 
 
 marriage or by the dissolution of the union through a 
 legal divorce. From the point of view of conjugal con- 
 dition, therefore, the population falls into four and only 
 four classes : (i) married, (2) single, (3) widowed, (4) 
 divorced. 
 
 The question whether at a given time A and B were 
 married is often difficult for a court to determine and in 
 not a few instances the persons themselves must be mis- 
 taken about the facts. This would be true more often 
 of the third persons by whom the information was some- 
 times furnished. In this subject ignorance is thus a 
 source of some error, but probably a less important 
 source than conscious misrepresentation. Motives to 
 misrepresent would often affect the two sexes in oppo- 
 site directions tempting the mother of an illegitimate 
 child to report herself as married and the husband who 
 has abandoned his wife to call himself single. It is 
 probably for this reason in part that most censuses 
 report the married women outnumbering married men. 
 Thus in the United States among the persons of negro 
 descent there were 12,181 more married women than 
 men. It is not likely that many of these were married to 
 white men. The large majority, I believe, is explicable 
 as incorrect returns. The motives to call one's self 
 single or married when one is divorced would probably 
 appeal to a large proportion of all persons divorced 
 and I doubt that any serious reliance should be 
 placed upon the returns of divorced persons. There 
 were probably not far from twenty-nine thousand 
 divorces granted in the United States in 1890. It is 
 not likely that divorced persons would remarry so 
 rapidly that the actual number at 2mj day, e. g.^ June 
 I, 1890, would be only 2.3 times the number of persons 
 annually divorced. The number of divorced persons re- 
 
Area, Population, Birthplace, etc. 31 
 
 ported by a census is a function of two variables, the 
 actual number of such persons and their average veracity, 
 and the latter is so important that we have hardly any 
 warrant for inferences from the reported to the actual 
 number. The proportion of divorced persons in cities is 
 not less than in the country at large as the census de- 
 clares,^ but for obvious reasons veracity on such topics in 
 cities is less general. Still as persons have no ground to 
 return themselves as divorced unless they think them- 
 selves so, the number of divorced persons returned may be 
 regarded as a minimum limit to the true number. With 
 these qualifications the returns of conjugal condition 
 may be accepted as substantially correct. 
 
 As the conjugal condition of the population of the 
 United States was not reported prior to 1890 comparison 
 with earlier national censuses is impossible and one is 
 compelled to rely upon state censuses. These show 
 that the proportion of the total population which is 
 married has tended to increase except in Massachusetts 
 and Rhode Island. 
 
 PERCBNTAGE OF TOTAI, POPULATION WHO WERE MARRIED. 
 
 Year. Iowa. Mass. Mich.* New York. Rhode Isl. 
 
 1855 ? ? 34-1 3fi-i ? 
 
 1865 ? ? 36.2 37.5 ? 
 
 1875 ? 39.1 38.9 37-8 38.S 
 
 1885 36.5 3S.1 40.4 ? 37.7 
 
 1890 36.5 37.7 40.0 38.4 37.5 
 
 1 895 37.2 37-7 40.3 ? ? 
 
 * The stale census of Michigan is taken four years after the national census 
 i. e., 1854, 1864, etc. 
 
 While no clear results appear from the table, yet in 
 
 the two states of New York and Michigan in which the 
 
 figures extend over about twice the period of the other 
 
 states, the tendency has been towards an increase in the 
 
 ' Eleventh Census Population i : clxxxvii. 
 
32 American Economic Association. 
 
 proportion of married persons in the total population. 
 
 Probably the majority of states have changed in the 
 
 same direction during the period. 
 
 The increase in the proportion of married persons may 
 
 be due solely to an increase in the adult and marriageable 
 
 population. Thus the percentage of married persons in 
 
 the population over fifteen of New York state was : 
 
 1855 56.3 
 
 1865 58.3 
 
 1875 56.1 
 
 1890 54.0 
 
 Down to 1884 the Michigan census did not return the 
 population above fifteen. In Massachusetts the percent- 
 age of adults who were married was in 1875, 55.3 ; in 
 1885, 52.6; in 1890, 51.2; in 1895, 51.3, a decrease of 
 four per cent in twenty years. From the scattered evi- 
 dence available it seems probable that the proportion of 
 adults wlio are married is decreasing. 
 
 In foreign countries the proportion of the population 
 who are married ranges from a minimum of about one- 
 fourth to a maximum of nearly one-half. Disregarding 
 India, as not making a part of occidental civilization, the 
 foreign countries and American states with lowest and 
 highest proportion of married in their population were : 
 
 Percent, married. Percent, married. 
 
 Ireland 26.4 Arizona 30.7 
 
 Scotland 29.7 Virginia 31. i 
 
 Bulgaria 42.0 New Hampshire.. 41.8 
 
 Roumania 42.3 Vermont 42.1 
 
 In the United States there are two main regions in 
 which the percentage of married to the total population 
 is below the average of the country, 35.7. The first in- 
 cludes all the old slave states, the second all the states 
 in the western division except New Mexico. The reason 
 
Area, Population, Birthplace, etc. 33 
 
 for the small proportion in the southern states is the 
 large number of children there, but in the western states 
 a stronger influence is the relative fewness of women. 
 Comparatively little is to be learned from a study of 
 conjugal condition, therefore, which does not eliminate 
 or allow for these differences in age groups or sex dis- 
 tribution. 
 
 The usual method of determining the conjugal condi- 
 tion of the adult population is to compare the married 
 persons over fifteen with the total population over fifteen, 
 and this limit of age is preferable to that of twent}', em- 
 ployed by the census, both because it facilitates com- 
 parison with other countries and because it seems un- 
 wise to fix the age of adult life for this purpose at 
 twenty, when there are over 330,000 married persons 
 under that age in the country. Hence in this paper the 
 limit of fifteen years has been employed to separate the 
 marriageables from the unmarriageables. In our various 
 states and territories the proportion of adults who are 
 married falls between two-fifths and three-fifths of the 
 population, or more accurately between 41.8 per cent 
 in Montana and 61.5 per cent in Oklahoma. The 
 average for the country is 55.3 per cent. There are two 
 main regions in which the proportion of married persons 
 is below the average, the more extensive but less popu- 
 lous area includes all the western division except New 
 Mexico, the second embraces all the Atlantic states from 
 Massachusetts to North Carolina, except New Jersey and 
 West Virginia. As in the east women are in excess 
 among the adult population, and in the far west men are 
 much more in excess, it may be that a primary cause of a 
 low proportion of married persons is found in this dissoci- 
 ation of the sexes. To test the hypothesis the proportion 
 
34 American Economic Association. 
 
 of males in the adult population of each stale has been 
 found and the states divided into three groups, those 
 having over six-tenths of the adult population male, those 
 having between five-tenths and six-tenths male and those 
 having less than five-tenths male. The first class in- 
 cludes all the western division except Utah and New 
 Mexico, and corresponds closely to one great division of 
 states with low proportion of married persons. The 
 third class includes all the states touching the Atlantic 
 from New Hampshire to lyouisiana except Delaware, 
 Florida and Mississippi. It shows a general agreement 
 with the other main region of low proportion of married 
 persons, and the hypothesis that a main cause of few 
 marriages lies in dissociation of the sexes by interstate 
 migration is confirmed. It is better, therefore, to study 
 the conjugal condition of each sex by itself. 
 
 The returns of the last censxis make it possible to 
 study the distribution of early marriages for each sex by 
 an anal)'sis of the proportion of persons 15-20 or 20—25 
 who are married. As the number of married men or 
 boys under 20 is less than 17,000 one must begin for 
 males with the next later age group, 20-25. Tl'^ per- 
 centage of men of this age who are married varies from 
 6.2 in Montana and 7.0 in Wyoming to 35.0 in Missis- 
 sippi and 36.9 in South Carolina. The average for 
 the country was 18.9, i. e.^ nearly one man in five between 
 20 and 25 years of age is married. The position of the 
 two states with the largest proportion of negroes sug- 
 gests that early marriages maj' be more common among 
 men of that race. To test the hypothesis the proportion 
 married has been computed for each race separately. 
 The results for the six states with largest proportion of 
 
 }• 
 
 oung married men are as follows : 
 
 *& 
 
Area, Population, Birthplace, etc. 35 
 
 Married meu in each loo between 
 
 20 and 25 3-ears of age. 
 
 State. Whites. Negroes. 
 
 South Carolina 25.6 44.6 
 
 Mississippi 24.6 42.0 
 
 Alabama 29.3 39.5 
 
 Georgia 28.0 38.7 
 
 Louisiana 22.5 41.5 
 
 Arkan.sas 29.1 36.8 
 
 Negro males therefore are unusually likely to marry 
 early. 
 
 It is noteworthy that the proportions of married in 
 the two races do not vary together. If numerous early 
 marriages of males be an evidence of widespread ability 
 to live at the standards the people set themselves, the 
 negroes are most prosperous in South Carolina, Missis- 
 sippi and lyouisiana, the whites in Alabama, Arkansas 
 and Georgia. It is also true that the proportion of mar- 
 ried men among the whites alone in these six states is 
 far higher than the average for the country as a whole, 
 or for any northern state. Hence southern whites marry 
 in large numbers unusually early. 
 
 Early marriages of men are most common in the 
 southeastern states from South Carolina to Louisiana, 
 and least common in the northwestern states from Min- 
 nesota to California. But marriages of girls under 
 twenty are most common in the southwest along the 
 Mexican frontier and least common in the northeast 
 from Massachusetts to Maryland. In the United States 
 as a whole about one girl in ten (9.5 per cent) between 
 15 and 20 is married, but in Ivlassachusetts the propor- 
 tion is I in 25, in New Mexico and Arizona about i in 4. 
 
 As early marriages of males among soutliern negroes 
 are far more prevalent than with the whites, one would 
 naturally expect it to be true also that negro girls under 
 
36 American Economic Association. 
 
 twenty are more usually married than white girls of the 
 southern states. The following tahle has been prepared 
 for the six states in which early marriages of men were 
 most common : 
 
 state. 
 South Carolina . 
 
 Mississippi 
 
 Alabama 
 
 Georgia 
 
 LjOuisiana 
 
 Arkansas 
 
 Married girls 
 
 ill each 
 
 100 between 
 
 15 and 
 
 20 year.? of ape. 
 
 Whites. 
 
 
 Negroes. 
 
 13.0 
 
 
 16.9 
 
 13.0 
 
 
 '7.7 
 
 I5-I 
 
 
 14.9 
 
 14.9 
 
 
 17.6 
 
 13.0 
 
 
 17.8 
 
 20 6 
 
 
 21.5 
 
 Early marriages are somewhat more common among 
 negro girls in each of the states except Alabama, but 
 the difference is far less than that between the males of 
 the two races. Even among the whites early marriages 
 are more common than in any of the northern states 
 except those of the far northwest, where the scarcity of 
 women makes their earl)' marriage more genei^al. 
 
 Tlie tendency to early marriage on the part of both 
 sexes is thus decidedly greater in the southern states 
 than in the northern. This tendency affects both 
 whites and negroes. Its effects are modified by the un- 
 equal distribution of the sexes. Early marriages of 
 men are most common in the south-east because an ex- 
 cess of women is found there to choose from. Early 
 marriages of women are most common in the south-west 
 because of the excess of possible suitors. Early mar- 
 riages of women are least common in the north-east 
 because of the deficiency of possible suitors, and early 
 marriages of men are least common in the north-west 
 because of the inability of many to find wives. Doubt- 
 less these statements are subject to modification. The 
 Spanish American element along the Mexican frontier 
 probably marries unusually early and the opportunities 
 
Area, Popidation, Birthplace, etc. \\i 
 
 in the north-east for women to earn v.ages may induce 
 many to postpone marriage. Yet the general conclu- 
 sions of the study are not thereby invalidated. 
 
 The census figures make it possible, also, to determine 
 how large a proportion of those who attain a ripe maturi- 
 ty of years have never been married. 
 
 Among the males between 55 and 65 the smallest pro- 
 portion of bachelors is found in the southern states of 
 Arkansas, Alabama and Georgia in whicli 96 out of 
 every 100 of that age are or have been married. On the 
 other Iiand in the mining states of the far west less than 
 75 per cent of the old men have ever been married and 
 in Nevada the percentage is as low as 62. The small 
 proportion of elderly bachelors in the south may be due 
 to the negroes. A study of the facts by race, however, 
 shows that among the white men of Georgia, Alabama 
 and .\rkansas it is less common to pass through life un- 
 married than it is anywhere except among the negroes 
 of those and perhaps a few other states. 
 
 Elderly unmarried women are least numerous in the 
 predominantly agricultural states of the far west from 
 the Dakotas to Texas and in the Mormon regions of 
 Utah and Idaho. In those states only one woman in 
 twent'S"-five living at the age of 55—65 is still single, in 
 Utah only one in seventy, and in Oklahoma one in 
 ninety. Along the Atlantic coast from New Hampshire 
 to the Carolinas, especially in Rhode Island and North 
 Carolina, permanent spinsterhood is thrice as common, 
 and in the two states named one elderly woman in every 
 ten is still single. The dissociation of the sexes is prob- 
 ably the main cause of the difference, but mining and 
 perhaps also industrial pursuits seem to be less fa\-or- 
 able to marriage than agriculture. 
 
 Walter F. Willcox. 
 
Colored Population of African Descent. 
 
 Considering the vast number of persons concerned, 
 and the multitude of economic and social issues in- 
 volved, it is curious that the colored population of 
 African descent in the United States should have 
 excited so little interest among purely scientific olsserv- 
 ers. From the Civil War dov/n to 1890 scarcely a 
 single work of note upon the American negro can be 
 mentioned, conducted upon modern scientific principles, 
 and unbiased by political, social or religious prejudice. 
 The negro has long attracted the attention of philan- 
 throphists and well-meaning humanitarians ; but neither 
 the economist, the physician, nor the anthropologist 
 seems to have been alive to the possibilities for research 
 offered by this great population of seven million negroes ; 
 nor, on the other hand, have our statesmen appreciated 
 the necessity of accumulating a fund of reliable infor- 
 mation from skilled observers, to be used as a basis for 
 legislation. A problem economic, social, and moral, 
 second in magnitude to none in the United States is 
 awaiting consideration ; yet the Indians,' less than three 
 hundred thousand in number, have attracted in our later 
 censuses far more attention than the negro. Fortunately 
 the last few years have witnessed a revival of interest in 
 this direction, which has already produced noteworthy 
 results. The Federal Department of Labor, for example, 
 has recently inaugurated most auspiciously a series of 
 special investigations ;^ and the Department of Agricul- 
 
 ' The Xegroes of Farmville, Virginia : a Social Study ; by W. E. B. 
 DuBois. U. S. Dep't of J^abor, Bulletin, No. 14, 1S98, p. 1-38. 
 
 38 
 
Colored Population of African Descent. 39 
 
 ture has already published one report at least upon the 
 subject/ The monograph by F. 'L,. Hoffman, a profes- 
 sional statistician of high repute,^ is also deserving of men- 
 tion. These, together with a number of special investi- 
 gations, to which I shall refer, especially those inspired 
 by the Trustees of Atlanta University and the Tuskegee 
 Institute, should also be noted. :\Iore important than 
 all these, however, in urging the importance of a com- 
 prehensive and scientific treatment of the varied ques- 
 tions concerning the negro in our next federal census, 
 is the recent acquisition of Porto Rico, together with 
 our interests in Cuba and the Philippine Islands. By 
 the events of the late Spanish war, we are likely to add 
 several millions to the number of our colored popula- 
 tion. 
 
 The first question of importance concerns the actual 
 number of negroes in the United States, irrespective of 
 their geographical distribution or migration; those mat- 
 ters we shall reserve for treatment by themselves. No 
 especial change in the method of enumeration seems to 
 be called for, by the experience of the eleventh census. 
 The results obtained in 1890 when compared with those 
 of 1880, as is well known, firmly established the incom- 
 pleteness of the returns in the census immediately fol- 
 lov/ing the Civil War. The fears excited by an apparent 
 increase of negroes in the United States in the decade 
 from 1870 to 1880 of 34.9 per cent, as compared with a 
 growth of the white population of only 29.2 per cent, 
 were allaj^ed by the total 3a elded in 1890. This proved 
 
 ' U. S. Dep't of Agriculture. OfEce of Experiment Stations. Bul- 
 letin, No. 38. Dietary Studies ^nth reference to the Food of the Negro 
 in Alabama. 
 
 ' American Economic Association. Publications xi, Nos. 1-3 (1896). 
 Race Traits and Tendencies of the American Negro. 
 
40 American Economic Association. 
 
 at once that the defective enumeration in 1870, esti- 
 mated by General Walker to be not less than three hun- 
 dred thousand, was responsible for the error.' The 
 colored population of African descent manifested in 
 1890 an increase of but 13.5 per cent; or just about 
 one-half that of the whites for the entire countr)--. 
 Even in its most favorable section, in the southern 
 states, its rate of increase was 10 per cent less than that 
 of the whites. Its relative proportion of the aggregate 
 population decreased in the same measure. In two 
 states only — Mississippi and Arkansas — was any increase 
 in the proportion of negroes, compared with white, ap- 
 parent. The whole problem of the American negro at 
 once assumed a new aspect. Not an inundation of 
 blacks was threatened for the future ; but so alarming a 
 decrease in the relative growth of the negro population 
 as to suggest its ultimate extinction. Attempted ex- 
 planations for this phenomenon of retrogression will 
 concern us in a later paragraph. 
 
 vScarcely less important than the total enumeration by 
 states and territories are the facts of geographical distri- 
 bution of the negro population, and its present tenden- 
 cies towards migration. It is of profound importance for 
 the future amelioration of the economic and social status 
 of the negro to ascertain whether the black population is 
 massing by degrees in the Gulf states, or is tending 
 gradually to become disseminated throughout the entire 
 country. In the first case, a cure for any evils in the 
 economic, educational or social situation, must probably 
 be applied by direct Federal interference ; whereas, if 
 the burden of the negro population is to be distributed, 
 
 ' A lucid discussion of this by General Walker will be found in 
 Statistics of the Colored Race in the United States, in Am. Stat. Assn. 
 Publications 2 igi (1890). 
 
Colored Population of African Descent. 41 
 
 there is greater likelihood that the several states may be 
 able to deal with it adequately by themselves. 
 
 No especial change in the census methods seems to be 
 necessary in order to make the migratory tendencies of 
 the negro clear. The censuses in 1880 and 1890 both 
 include a statement of tiie state or territory of birth 
 and residence of each individual. As Prof. Willcox has 
 suggested/ the failure to include a column for " Born in 
 U. S. ; state not specified," in 1880 renders a direct com- 
 parison of the results for the two censuses somewhat 
 untrustworthy ; but if the methods of 1890 be preserved, 
 in 1900 this objection will not apply to a comparison in- 
 stituted for the present decade. With especial attention 
 directed to accuracy and fullness in collecting informa- 
 tion regarding birthplace, the present tendencies in the 
 matter of migration ought to be made clear witliout 
 any serious modification of the schedules previously 
 employed. 
 
 A word as to this tendenc)' as it appears to-day. 
 The widely prevalent opinion, supported by General 
 Walker,^ by the director of the eleventh census,' by 
 Mr. Gannett,* and other eminent authorities, is that 
 the negro population in the United States not onh- 
 tends to increase most rapidly in the extreme southern 
 states, but also that a general movement toward that 
 centre is apparent all through the south. This opinion 
 has been very ably contested by F. J. Brown, esq., of 
 Baltimore, in an admirable paper, which presents a most 
 
 'Am. Stat. Assn. Publications $ : 371 (1897), See also further 
 discussion, Idem., 6 : 46. 
 ''■Forum. July, 1891. 
 
 ^ Eleventh Census. Bulletin, No. 48, and elsewhere. Cf. Brown 
 op. cit. 
 
 'Statistics of the Negroes in the United States. Baltimore, 1894. 
 
42 American Ecouomic Association. 
 
 careful analysis of the subject.' He distinguishes three 
 belts of negro population, differing in the degree as well 
 as the character of their migratory proclivities. In the 
 "border states," Delaware, Maryland, the District of 
 Columbia, the Virginias, Kentucky and Missouri, the 
 decade, 1880-90, showed a rate of increase of the negro 
 population of only 2.6 per cent as compared with an in- 
 crease of 20 per cent for whites. In this belt the 
 negroes formed only 19 per cent of the population. 
 Next above these in relative density of negroes came 
 North Carolina and Tennesse with 31 per cent of 
 blacks. In these two states, the negroes increased in 
 numbers by only 6.1 per cent from 1880 to 1890; while 
 in the "far south," where the negroes form almost half 
 the entire population, the rate of increase from 1880 to 
 1890 was as high as 18.4 per cent. Even this, however, 
 it should be noted, was less than the rate of increase for 
 the negro population in the northern states, which was 
 20.6 per cent. The most obvious explanation for these 
 facts, and it seems probably the justifiable one, is that 
 not one but two opposite migratory tendencies are really 
 operative to-day. One, and perhaps the larger one, is 
 toward the south and southwest ; but its influence is not 
 felt much beyond North Carolina and Tennessee. The 
 other is distinctly northward, due to the superior eco- 
 nomic and social advantages offered north of Mason and 
 Dixon's line. This tends to deplete the entire group of 
 Border states ; and also to draw from the next succeed- 
 ing tier to the south. Thus North Carolina and Ten- 
 nessee lie between two centres of attraction ; the nearly 
 stationary condition of their black population shown by 
 the statistics above is the result. Other interesting 
 
 ' The Northward Movement of the Colored Population. A Statis- 
 tical Study. Baltimore, 1897. 
 
Colored Popidation of African Descent. 43 
 
 deductions are made by Mr. Brown from examination of 
 the census tables. We have space here only to mention 
 them. He calls attention to the violent contrasts in 
 density of negro population in contiguous counties of 
 the same state ; showing how the attitude of the whites 
 often operates to deter a diffusion of the negroes from 
 regions of relative densit)' to those where scarcely any 
 blacks reside. He shows that the regions of greatest 
 negro density are almost invariably those which are 
 backward in increase of population, partly as a result of 
 the economic dependence of the negro upon the white 
 population as employers. 
 
 In his description of the character of localities, which 
 seem to be by nature unfitted for the residence of the 
 white population, and in which the negro is bound to 
 predominate in numbers in the future, this author sets a 
 most admirable example which the geographers of the 
 next census would do well to follow. It is high time 
 that population, if it is to be treated from the geograph- 
 ical point of view, should be analyzed by districts pos- 
 sessing distinct individualit\- of soil, climate, or altitude. 
 The worthless generalizations of the distribution of 
 negro population by "altitude," by "latitude," and by 
 " rainfall," should be rejected at once in favor of descrip- 
 tions of true "areas of characterization." The environ- 
 ment is not composed of any one of these factors by 
 itself alone, and to analj'ze population in accordance 
 with them singly is a waste of time and money. Only 
 when considered in combination, soil and climate to- 
 gether, is any real human relation brought into relief. 
 It is greatly to be hoped that the geographers of the 
 twelfth census will at last awaken to the necessity of 
 descriptions of environment, if any be needed, in detail ; 
 
44 American Economic Association. 
 
 and not indulge in glittering generalizations devoid of 
 human or scientific interest. 
 
 Can the twelfth census deal in its schedules with the 
 question of blood intermixture of white and negro popu- 
 lation? The futiire of the race will largely depend upon 
 whether it is held aloof from intermarriage, or is gradu- 
 ally assimilated in blood with the white race. Massing 
 in the far south is certainly unfavorable to the latter ; 
 dissemination through the white population would be 
 favorable to it. Our former censuses liave expended 
 much effort in an honest attempt to elucidate the matter. 
 The Aci of March i, 1889, under which the eleventh 
 census was taken, directed a classification of population 
 as blacks, mulattoes, quadroons and octoroons. Inquiry 
 of this kind naturally has always yielded worthless re- 
 sults. Even were no question of illegitimacy or of 
 ignoble origin involved, as it obviously is in nine cases out 
 of ten, sucli a query is often impossible of exact answer. 
 To go back over three generations of ancestry is a 
 severe tax upon the genealogical resources of the average 
 southern negro family. I, personally, confess to a lament- 
 able mental obscurity in the matter of what constitutes 
 a quadroon or octoroon. It is as difficult as to distin- 
 guish the several degrees of cousins to which human 
 kind is liable. This matter must be approached, if at 
 all, by means of special intensive investigations at the 
 hands of skilled observers. We cannot share the hope 
 of the director of the eleventh census, that even the 
 confessedly imperfect results along this line in 1890, will 
 be of value, when compared with equally imperfect ones 
 for 1900. That two absolutely unreliable collections of 
 data are worth any more than one, is a perversion of 
 statistical principles. Rejection of this inquiry will 
 
Colored Popidaiioyi of African Desccrit. 45 
 
 greatly simplif}- the work of emimerators in the field; it 
 will allay popular prejudice in many quarters, and it will 
 leave space for otlier questions of vital importance and 
 of a more practical nature. 
 
 The eleventh census lias sufficiently emphasized the 
 fact that our colored population of African descent is 
 increasing far less rapidly than the whites. Tliis is true 
 not only in the northern and middle states, so far as can 
 be determined after elimination of the influence of 
 migration ; but it holds good all over the south as well. 
 In every part of the United States there can be no doubt 
 that the negro is being outstripped numerically by the 
 white race. In the analysis of the causes of this phe- 
 nomenon, a great opportunity is offered to the director 
 of the census of 1900 to perform a service for humanity 
 and science. It is a difficult question, involving not 
 only the vitality of the blacks of pure blood, but 
 especially the influence of miscegenation upon the half- 
 breeds. Hoffman has carefully gathered and collated 
 such data as were obtainable ; and this portion of his 
 monograph dealing with vital statistics is in many 
 respects the most satisfactory. But his conclusions are 
 invalidated for general application to the whole colored 
 population by an important fact. His vital statistics 
 are almost entirely drawn from urban sources ; the 
 country negro, forming the overwhelming proportion of 
 the race, is scarcely considered. No available data, in 
 fact, exist. It is highly improbable, therefore, that the 
 alarming degenerative tendencies noted by him can be 
 considered as characteristic of the race as a whole. De- 
 spite the present tendencies city- ward, the great proportion 
 of our negroes in the south form a distinctly rural popu- 
 lation. The " black belt," which has the greatest density, 
 
46 American Economic Associatioji. 
 
 is, indeed, almost devoid of cities of any considerable size. 
 And it is precisely this rural negro population of which 
 we have the least knowledge, yet whose present condi- 
 tion may be considered most typical for the race as a 
 whole. 
 
 To discover the causes of the present low rate of 
 increase in our negro population, especially in the rural 
 parts of the south, seems to me a most important matter, 
 imperatively demanding the attention of the authorities 
 who take the next census. A special report, similar to 
 that prepared by Dr. Billings in 1890 on the Vital Sta- 
 tistics of the Jews,"' would be of inestimable value. Yet 
 it should be far more considerable in size and scope. It 
 should proceed more on the lines of the special reports 
 recently started by the Department of L,abor ; or on the 
 plan of the elaborate special reports on the Indians in 
 the last census. If less than three hundred thousand 
 aborigines are deserving of those detailed special investi- 
 gations, which form so considerable a part of the eleventh 
 census ; surely our negroes, numbering perhaps eight or 
 nine million, are worthy of equally detailed considera- 
 tion. It will be objected, perhaps, that such an investi- 
 gation belongs rather to the work of the several state 
 boards of health. In some ways, it is true, they might 
 be better fitted to cope with tlie complexities of the 
 situation, especially because of their permanency. But,, 
 on the other hand, three powerful arguments are in 
 favor of the assumption of this work by the Federal 
 authorities. In the first place, the commonwealths show 
 no disposition to deal with the question thoroughly ; 
 secondly, the real significance of the negro problem can 
 only be treated with the entire south and north in view 
 ^ Eleventh Census. Bulletin, 19. 
 
Colored Population of African Descent. 47 
 
 at one time, all sections being subjected to examination 
 under a uniform system ; and thirdly, most important of 
 all, the real problem of the demography of our colored 
 race can only be solved by an examination of their eco- 
 nomic, moral and physical status combined. Thus, for 
 example, it seems to me far more probable that Dr. Du- 
 Bois is right in ascribing the relatively slow rate of in- 
 crease of the average negro family to the fact that it is 
 economically on the up-grade,' than to accept Hoff- 
 man's explanation that hybridity, vice and ignorance 
 are accountable for it. True, Hoffman discovers a ter- 
 rific death rate among iiis city-bred or migrated negroes, 
 but neither DuBois nor Brown finds any such abnormal 
 death rate in other cases. In short, not excessive mor- 
 tality alone, but a decreased birth rate as well, due to the 
 first glimmer of ambition to get ahead in the world, 
 should be taken into consideration. The only way to 
 follow this up, however, is to make au investigation as 
 truly economic and social as it is medical and statistical. 
 Such work demands the most discriminating and im- 
 partial scientific observation ; the sentimentalist and old- 
 fashioned moralist who sees in the customary " marriages 
 on a church broom-stick " tlie incarnation of sexual vice, 
 should be rigidly excluded ; as well as the average 
 Southerner for whom there is no horror so great as a 
 mixed marriage of black and white. Many branches of 
 science should be contributory; but expert medical opin- 
 ion and trained economic and social observation are 
 most necessary. The twelfth census cannot enlarge 
 its scope in any direction more profitably than in the 
 conduct of a special investigation of this kind on a 
 comprehensive scale applied to our negro population as 
 
 ' Op. cit. , p. TO, ff. 
 
4^ American Economic Association. 
 
 a whole. The prosperity of a large section of our 
 country depends upon the future of tlie black race ; 
 legislation, Federal and state, would undoubtedly be 
 shaped in a great measure by the invaluable results 
 which a visely-ordered special inquiry of this sort 
 might conceivably yield. 
 
 W. Z. RiPi^EY. 
 ]\Tassachusetts Institute of Tectinology . 
 
The Census of the North American Indians. 
 
 The previous census reports on the North American 
 Indians are principally reviews of the status of the 
 Indians, derived from observations made by special 
 agents, and collected from data furnished in the annual 
 reports of the Commissioner of Indian Affairs. 
 
 The collection of satisfactory statistical data from 
 Indian tribes is attended with peculiar difficulties, which 
 are largely due to the multitude of Indian languages, to 
 the necessity of employing interpreters in the collection 
 of data, and also to the impossibility of explaining to 
 the Indians the object of the research. For this reason 
 it seems necessary that the data for the census should 
 be collected largely by men who are in constant contact 
 with the various tribes, that is to say, by the officers of 
 the regular Indian service. Much of the material bear- 
 ing upon the economic conditions of the Indians, and 
 upon the vital statistics of the various tribes, is contained 
 in the annual returns of the Indian agents. But their 
 reports do not bear upon a number of questions that 
 seem to be of considerable importance. 
 
 A census of the Indian tribes should be the means of 
 determining the success or failure of the policy pursued 
 during the past years, and should suggest the policy to 
 be followed in the future. If the census is to be 
 arranged with a view of carrying out this fundamental 
 idea, three problems seem to be of fundamental impor- 
 tance : (i) the effect of the allotment of land in severalty, 
 (2) the effect of boarding schools and of day schools, 
 and (3) the effect of blood mixture between Indians, 
 and whites and negroes. 
 
50 American Economic Association. 
 
 Previous census reports contain a certain amount of 
 purely ethnological information on various Indian tribes, 
 which was collected incidentally by the agents of the 
 Census Office. It does not seem that information of this 
 character, highly valuable though it may be for scien- 
 tific purposes, belongs properly to the domain of the 
 census of the Indians, which ought to be confined to 
 demographical questions. There might be an excuse 
 for the collection of this information, if no other agencies 
 were provided by law for collection of data of this de- 
 scription ; but, since the Bureau of American Ethnology 
 has been established with the express purpose of col- 
 lecting data referring to the primitive condition of the 
 Indians, the work of the census in this line is unneces- 
 sary, and duplicates the work that is done much more 
 thoroughly and satisfactorily by the trained investigators 
 of the Bureau of American Ethnology than it is by the 
 occasional observations of agents whose prime interest 
 lies in statistical inquiries. 
 
 The following questions seem of particular interest in 
 regard to the three points which were designated before 
 as especially desirable subjects for investigation thus : — 
 
 1. Influence of the allotment of land in severalty 
 to the Indians. — Much of the information that seems 
 desirable in connection with this subject is contained in 
 the annual reports of the Commissioner of Indian 
 Affairs. It would seem particularly desirable to ascer- 
 tain in some detail the economic condition of Indians 
 holding land in severalty, and to classify the returns 
 that would be obtained under the second and third head- 
 ing in reference to the questions, whether Indians hold 
 land in severalty, or as a tribal unit ; and whether they 
 receive rations, or are self-supporting. 
 
 2. The effect of the school system upon the Indian 
 
The Census of the North American Indians. 51 
 
 population. — Indian schools may be classed as day 
 schools, boarding schools, and training schools. The 
 influence of the day school upon the child is compara- 
 tively slight. In the boarding school the child is re- 
 moved from its home surroundings for a series of years, 
 and in the training school this separation is emphasized 
 by the removal to a distant locality and by the continu- 
 ance of this removal for a number of 3'ears. It seems 
 very desirable to collect detailed statistics on the fate, in 
 later life, of the scholars in these various classes of 
 schools, in regard as well to their state of health as to 
 their social and economic history, particularly with a 
 view of determining how far school life tends to break 
 up tribal relationship, and promotes affiliation between 
 Indians and whites. 
 
 3. Mixture between India?is., and whites and negroes. 
 One of the most important problems of Indian policy is 
 the question, in how far it is desirable to promote mix- 
 ture between the Indians and other races. It is clear 
 that, with the increase in settlement in our country, the 
 chances for the Indian to survive as an independent race 
 will become slighter and slighter. The opinion is fre- 
 quently held that half-breeds, the descendants of Indians 
 and whites or of Indians and negroes, are much inferior 
 in physique, in ability, and in character, to the full- 
 bloods. But no statistical information is available which 
 would justify a conclusion of this character. If there 
 was a decided deterioration of race, due to mixture, it 
 would seem that the opportunity for race mixture should 
 be limited so far as this can be accomplished. On the 
 other hand, if race mixture seems to be advantageous, it 
 should be facilitated, particularly by bringing the 
 Indians into easy contact with the whites. 
 
 For this reason it would seem of great importance to 
 
52 American Econotnic Association. 
 
 determine the vitality, the social environment, and 
 criminal statistics of the half-blood as compared with the 
 full-blood and with the white. It would seem that the 
 most satisfactory information on this point could be 
 gathered in the Indian schools, where half-blood children 
 and Indian children may be observed under equally 
 favorable conditions. The investigation should be car- 
 ried on by a number of observers trained in the methods 
 of collecting information on the bodily development of 
 children. This investigation could be carried out, in the 
 course of two years, on all the Indian and half-breed 
 children attending school. It is indispensable that the 
 inquiry should be extended over a period of two years, 
 because each individual should be examined at least 
 twice, at an interval of not less than one year. The re- 
 sults would be still more satisfactory if the investigation 
 could be repeated at regular intervals through a period 
 of ten years, so as to extend from the twelfth to the 
 thirteenth census. It is of great importance to deter- 
 mine the fertility of full-blood and of half-blood women, 
 an inquiry which could be carried out on the agency 
 with the help of the agent's records, and by means of 
 information that may be collected by the help of agency 
 physicians. Preliminary statistics collected by the 
 writer seem to indicate an increased fertility on the part 
 of the half-blood woman. 
 
 The primary object of this investigation would neces- 
 sitate the collection of data showing the tendency, on 
 the part of half-breeds of both sexes, to leave the tribe 
 to which they belong, and to merge themselves in the 
 white population. Statistics collected in certain parts 
 of western Canada seem to indicate that the female part 
 of the population is more likely to leave the tribe than 
 
The Census of the North American Indians. 53 
 
 is the male population, and that the male half-blood is 
 likely to marry a full-blood Indian, while the female 
 half-blood is likely to marry a white man. 
 
 It would be quite feasible to collect information in 
 regard to the data mentioned here, and the results of 
 the investigation would have an important bearing upon 
 the shaping of our Indian policy. 
 
 Franz Boas. 
 
 Columbia University . 
 
Age, Sex, Dwellings and Families, and TTrban Population. 
 
 Any consideration of either theoretical or practical 
 census work should not fail to take into account the 
 various limitations to which each investigation is sub- 
 ject, as well as those to which the office as a whole is 
 subject. The Superintendent and his chiefs are early 
 confronted with questions of time and money. 
 
 More especially the matter of time is important in the 
 planning of the work. It will not do to construct a 
 scheme, even in population, agriculture, and manu- 
 factures, that cannot be executed to its end, a satis- 
 factory tabulation, in less than about five years, and a 
 large portion of the results in these leading branches of 
 census work should be available to the public within 
 two or three years. 
 
 It is apparent, therefore, to one who is familiar with 
 the magnitude of the work of a census office as it has 
 been conducted during the last two censuses, that any 
 elaboration of census schedules used in the census of 
 1890, should be undertaken with extreme caution, and 
 that, on the contrary, it might be better to reduce the 
 number of questions. 
 
 Another matter to be considered in planning census 
 work relates to the printing of final reports. It is very 
 easy to elaborate a scheme of tabulation to such an 
 extent that the report will be too diffuse and will render 
 it difficult for one who examines it to find the infor- 
 mation that he wants. There is no use, for instance, 
 in presenting a table stating that two persons died of 
 scarlet fever in a certain sanitary district within a year, 
 or that there was one homicide in a certain county, 
 
Age, Sex, Dwellings, Families, and Urban Population. 55 
 
 Much of the bulkiness of the reports of the eleventh 
 census would have been prevented if minute details 
 like these, which are of no value at all as statements of 
 fact, had been condensed to larger aggregates. 
 
 One of the most deplorable limitations to good and 
 quick census work is the spoils system under which the 
 office has been operated and under which, at this writing, 
 it seems likely to be operated for the twelfth census. 
 The evils of that system are exasperating to those who 
 have charge of the work, because they are incessantly 
 blocking the way, upsetting arrangements, and, at the 
 end, curtailing desirable tabulation because the work 
 has been so long drawn out. It has been said, and is 
 doubtless true, that the completion of the eleventh 
 census was delayed at least one year by the change of 
 administration, March 4, 1893, and it is well known that 
 because of that change of administration some of the 
 contemplated and partly accomplished tabulation had to 
 be given up. 
 
 The operation of the spoils system is made worse by 
 putting the Census Office in the Interior Department ; 
 but aside from any consideration of this sort it would 
 be much better to make the Census Office an inde- 
 pendent bureau, responsible directly to the President, 
 which would mean practically that the Director would 
 be the supreme head of the office. The President would 
 not undertake to dictate to the Director what the organi- 
 zation of his office must be, whereas Secretaries of the 
 Interior have been known to do this to an extent which 
 was very detrimental to the good of the office. 
 
 AGE. 
 
 In the census of 1890 the enumerators were instructed 
 as follows : 
 
56 American Economic Association. 
 
 " Age at nearest birthday. If under one year, give age in months. 
 
 " Write the age in figures at nearest birthday in whole years, omit- 
 ting months and days, for each person of one year of age or over. 
 For children who on the ist of June, 1890, were less than one year of 
 age, give the age in months, or twelfths of a year, thus : 3/12, 7/12, 
 10/12. For a child less than one month old, state the age as follows : 
 0/12. The exact years of age for all persons one year old or over should 
 be given whenever it can be obtained. In any event, do not accept 
 the answer "don't know," but ascertain as nearly as possible the 
 approximate age of each person. The general tendency of persons in 
 giving their ages is to use the round numbers, as 20, 25, 30, 35, 40, etc. 
 If the age is given as " about 25," determine, if possible, whether the 
 age should be entered as 24, 25, or 26. Particular attention should be 
 paid to this, otherwise it will be found when the results are aggregated 
 in this office that a much more than normal number of persons have 
 been reported as 20, 25, 30, 35, 40, etc., years of age, and a much less 
 than normal at 19, 21, 24, 26, 29, 31, etc." ' 
 
 These instructions seem to me to be perfect ; they are 
 
 explicit, clear, and neither too long nor too short.^ 
 
 ^ Eleventh Census. Instructions to Enumerators. 23. 
 
 ^[It may be mentioned here, as it is not, I believe, in the Eleventh 
 Census, that the question asked in 1880 was, "Age at last birthday," 
 and in 1890, "Age at nearest birthday." No reason for the change is 
 offered and its wisdom may be doubted. A person usually regards 
 his age as equal to the number of birthdays he has passed. Any 
 attempt by the census to ask a question involving a different concep- 
 tion seems unwise and likely to be misleading. The average age of 
 the population of the United States in 1 880 was 24.1 years, in 1890, 
 25.1 years. (Eleventh Census, Abstract 7.) Of this increase of a 
 year in the average age, a part lying between zero and six months was 
 due to the change in the form of the question, and no one can tell 
 how much. My conjecture is that among adults the part was almost 
 negligibly small. Some evidence of an effect upon the reported ages 
 of children may be derived from the figures. Under the instructions 
 quoted by Mr. Holmes, the children reported in 1890 as one year old 
 should have included only those between twelve months and eighteen 
 months, while in 1880 those one year old should have included all be- 
 tween tv/elve months and twenty-four months. The figures show 
 that in 1880 eighteen per cent of the children under five were one 
 year old, while in 1890 only fourteen per cent were so. The true per- 
 centage was probably over twenty. As the ages of adults were stated 
 in 1890 with decidedly more accuracy than in 1880 (Am. Stat. Assn. 
 5 ■ 133)) this decreased accuracy may plausibly be assigned to the 
 change in the form of the question. If so, at least 300,000 children 
 between eighteen and twenty-four months were reported as two years 
 old.— W. F. W.] 
 
Age, Sex, Dwellings, Families, and Urban Population. 57 
 
 It is needless to enter into any discussion as to the 
 desirability of obtaining the statistics of the ages of the 
 population, but there is room for discussion with regard 
 to tabulation. 
 
 The method adopted for the census of 1890 was to 
 group the months and make a total for age under one 
 year, and then group the years, thus : i to 4, 5 to 9, 10 
 to 14, etc. 
 
 It seems generally to be agreed by those who have 
 . given the distribution of ages as reported by enumerators 
 any consideration for the purpose of tabulating them, 
 that such a grouping as this should not be repeated. 
 The years which are notoriously erroneous, that is, the 
 quinquennial and decennial years, are placed at one end 
 in each classiiication.^ 
 
 The English census, in one table at least, has grouped 
 by quinquennial years up to, but not including, 25, and 
 then grouped every ten years, beginning with 25, 35, 45, 
 etc., the object being to put the most erroneous age-year 
 of the group as near the middle as possible. But, in 
 doing this, the scheme allows the age-year, which is of 
 second importance (25, 35, etc.), to be at one end of the 
 group. In this way a subdivision of the decennial 
 groups into quinquennial groups was made impossible, 
 and quinquennial groups are the more useful, if both 
 groupings cannot be had. 
 
 I would suggest that a quinquennial grouping should 
 be continued under a new arrangement, the first group 
 
 ' [It may be noticed that there is no traceable concentration on the 
 ages 5 and 15 and little on 10 and 20. It is not until after the age of 
 
 20 that the tendency to concentrate on multiples of 5 becomes evi- 
 dent (Am. Stat. Assn., 5 : 133). Before that the tendency is to con- 
 centrate on the even years and especially on the years 14, i5, 18, or 
 
 21 (the last only for males) which bring some legal privileges or im- 
 munities. W. F. W.] 
 
58 American Economic Association. 
 
 to contain ages under three, the next groups to be 3 to 7 
 years, 8 to 12, 13 to 17, and so forth. This would place 
 the especially erroneous years in the middle of the groups 
 in every case. 
 
 In the tabulation of the scheme of the eleventh cen- 
 sus ages were tabulated by sex, general nativity, and 
 color, by states and territories, and by cities of 25,000 
 inhabitants or more, as shown in the following state- 
 ment : 
 
 Ages of the aggregate population of the United States, classified by • 
 
 sex, general nativity, and color. 
 Ages of the aggregate population, classified by sex, general nativity, 
 
 and color, by states and territories. 
 Ages by periods of years of the aggregate population, classified by 
 
 sex, by states and territories. 
 Ages by periods of years of the native white population of native 
 
 parentage, classified by sex, by states and territories. 
 Ages by periods of years of the native white population of foreign 
 
 parentage, classified by sex, by states and territories. 
 Ages by periods of years of the foreign white population , classified by 
 
 sex, by states and territories. 
 Ages by periods of years of the colored population, clas.sified by sex, 
 
 by states and territories. 
 Ages by periods of years of the aggregate population, classified by 
 
 sex, general nativity, and color, for cities having 25,000 inhab- 
 itants or more. 
 
 The tabulation of ages for the larger cities" is especially 
 noteworthy, and the continuance of tabulation for such 
 cities should be repeated in every census. The import- 
 ance of the urban population in its relative and increas- 
 ing magnitude has become such that a tabular presenta- 
 tion of facts for the urban population, as distinct from 
 the remainder of the population, should be extended to 
 all tables embracing the whole country wherever the 
 facts are pertinent to the city population either positively 
 or negatively. The limitation of this tabulation of ages 
 in these cities to sex, general nativity, and color was 
 ' Eleventh Census. Population, 2 : 1 14-134, Table 8. 
 
Age, Sex, Dwellings, Families, and Urban Population. 59 
 
 probably due to circumstantial limitations prevailing in 
 the office of the census ; and, while this tabulation was 
 more elaborate than that of any previous census or than 
 that of any other country, and the relating of ages to 
 these elements of the population seems to be very desir- 
 able, I would suggest that it would be desirable also to 
 tabulate ages by conjugal condition. 
 
 In the latest censuses of various countries, ages were 
 tabulated as follows : 
 
 England and Wales : By sex ; by conjugal condition 
 and sex ; by sex, with subdivision of the population into 
 urban and rural ; by sex and the defective classes ; by sex 
 and the occupations of the blind ; by sex and the occu- 
 pations of the other defective classes ; by sex for the 
 mentally deranged in asylums and workhouses ; by sex 
 and conjugal condition for the pauper inmates of work- 
 houses ; by sex and conjugal condition for prisoners ; 
 by sex and nativity ; by sex, conjugal condition, and 
 nativity. 
 
 In Belgium, the ages are presented in groups by sex. 
 The German tabulation is by sex and conjugal condition. 
 The French tabulation of ages is in groups by sex and 
 occupation ; by sex and conjugal condition ; and there is 
 a tabulation of ages for the urban population. 
 
 Upon examining what has been done in foreign coun- 
 tries with respect to the tabulation of ages, there is little 
 that is practically suggestive. 
 
 Desirable as it would be to tabulate occupations by 
 ages, the number and classification of occupations to 
 which our future Census Office is virtually committed 
 would call for a table in such detail that considerations 
 of time consumed and printed space required practically 
 bar out such a tabulation. 
 
6o American Economic Association. 
 
 SEX. 
 
 Little is to be said with regard to sex beyond what 
 incidentally appears in the rest of this paper. All are 
 so agreed that in all population tables the distinction of 
 sex should be made, and this is so universally the prac- 
 tice, that there is nothing to be done beyond expressing 
 a caution against omitting sex from any tabular pre- 
 sentation for which sex is known. 
 
 DWELLINGS AND FAMILIES. 
 
 The family is such an important social element that 
 I cannot assume any one would seriously question the 
 tabulation of the number, and to this I would add that 
 the family should in some way be related statistically, 
 to its home. 
 
 The practice of the national census has been to estab- 
 lish a relationship between the number of families and 
 the number of dwellings. 
 
 The following were the instructions defining a dwell- 
 ing-house : 
 
 " A dwelling-house for the purposes of the census means any build- 
 ing or place of abode, of whatever character, material, or structure, in 
 which any person is living at the time of taking the census. It may 
 be a room above a warehouse or factory, a loft above a stable, a wig- 
 wam on the outskirts of a settlement, or a dwelling-house in the 
 ordinary sense of that term. A tenement house, whether it contains 
 two, three, or forty families, should be considered for the purposes of 
 the census as one house. A building under one roof suited for two or 
 more families, but with a dividing partition wall and a separate front 
 door for each part of the building, should be counted as two or more 
 houses. A block of houses under one roof, but with separate front 
 doors, should be considered as so many houses, without regard to the 
 number of families in each separate house in the block. Wholly un- 
 inhabited dwellings are not to be counted." ' 
 
 I fail to see that a relationship between number of 
 families and number of dwellings is of sufficient import- 
 ' Eleventh Census. Instructions to Enumerators. 19. 
 
Age, Sex, Dwellings, Families, and Urban Population. 6i 
 
 ance to be worth the tabulation. It may have had some 
 importance before the erection of large tenements and 
 flat-houses, and before the character of the home under- 
 went the great change that the growth of cities and 
 towns has imparted to living. The original, and con- 
 tinued, object of relating families to number of dwellings 
 was, and is, to measure statistically the degree of crowd- 
 ing. But these statistics no longer measure this, or cer- 
 tainly not in the sense that they measured it in the past. 
 
 In some southern county there may be a dwelling to 
 every family, inhabitants being, say, largely composed 
 of negroes in a cotton region ; but these families, for the 
 most part, may be living in very small quarters and in 
 mere cabins, and the average of one dwelling to a family 
 should not be received as having any significance at all. 
 
 In cities, on the other hand, while a ratio of dwellings 
 to families would give some indication of density of 
 population, it might give no indication of floor space- 
 crowding, since the dwellings are of such indefinite size 
 in cities and many of them are not only large but afford 
 very commodious space. 
 
 I would, therefore, recommend that no further statis- 
 tics of the number of dwellings be published ; but, as I 
 have said, some sort of relationship between the family 
 and its home, as indicating family circumstances, should 
 be adopted. The facts taken for this purpose must be 
 very few in number and must be easily ascertainable and 
 represented without a special schedule and without 
 somewhat elaborate inquiry into the home circumstances, 
 which, of course, would be practically out of the ques- 
 tion. 
 
 I think of nothing else that might be feasible, and at 
 the same time indicate fairly significant results, which is 
 as good as taking the number of rooms occupied by each 
 
62 American Economic Association. 
 
 family, regardless of the number of families that there 
 ■ma}' be in the dwelling. The number of rooms is 
 readily ascertainable by any enumerator, as has been 
 demonstrated in Massachusetts and in France and 
 England, and the returns present no difficulties to the 
 tabulator. 
 
 It would be inadvisable to change the definition of the 
 word family for statistical purposes. The enumerators 
 of the eleventh census were instructed as follows : 
 
 " The word family, for the purposes of the census, includes persons 
 living alone, as well as families in the ordinary sense of that term, 
 and also all larger aggregations of people having only the tie of a 
 common roof and table. A hotel, with all its inmates, constitutes but 
 one family within the meaning of this term.- A hospital, a prison, an 
 asylum is equally a family for the purposes of the census. On the 
 other hand, the solitary inmate of a cabin, a loft, or a room finished 
 off above a store, and indeed all individuals living out of families, 
 constitute a family in the meaning of the census act. 
 
 " By ' individuals living out of families ' is meant all persons occupy- 
 ing lofts in piiblic buildings, above stores, warehouses, factories, and 
 stables, having no other usual place of abode ; persons living solitary 
 in cabins, huts, or tents ; persons sleeping on river boats, canal boats, 
 barges, etc., having no other usual place of abode, and persons in 
 police stations having no homes. Of the classes just mentioned the 
 most important, numerically, is the first, viz. : those persons, chiefly 
 in cities, who occupy rooms in public buildings, or above stores, ware- 
 houses, factories, and stables. In order to reach such persons the 
 enumerator will need not only to keep his eyes open to all indications 
 of such casual residence in his enumeration district, but to make in- 
 quiry both of the parties occupying the business portion of such 
 buildings and also of the police. In the case, however, of tenement 
 houses and of the so-called ' flats ' of the great cities as many families 
 are to be recorded as there are separate tables. 
 
 " A person's home is where he sleeps. There are many people who 
 lodge in one place and board in another ; all such persons should be 
 returned as members of that family with which they lodge." ' 
 
 To depart from the foregoing definition of a family, 
 which has been substantially the one adopted previously, 
 would be uncalled for, but it does seem necessary that 
 there should be some improvement in the tabulation of 
 families. A mere average of the number of persons to 
 
 ' Eleventh Census. Instructions to Enumerators. 20. 
 
Age, Sex, Dwellings, Families, and Urban Population. 63 
 
 a family, while useful for some purposes, is far from 
 being as useful as a statement of the number of families 
 having a specified number of members. A presentation 
 of facts in this way, not only for the number of persons 
 in a family, but in nearly all other cases of the sort, is so 
 generally agreed upon by statisticians and students of 
 statistics, that I feel it needless to do more than make 
 the suggestion. 
 
 The instructions given to the enumerators of the 
 census of 1890 were very well prepared, and I submit 
 below extracts from them relating to the family : 
 
 " Number of persons in this family . 
 
 "The answer to this inquiry should correspond to the number of 
 columns filled on each schedule, and care should be taken to have all 
 the members of the family included in this statement and a column 
 filled for each person in the family, including servants, boarders, 
 lodgers, etc. Be sure that the person answering the inquiries thor- 
 oughly understands the question, and does not omit any person who 
 should be counted as a member of the family." ' 
 
 "Relationship to head of family . 
 
 ' ' Designate the head of a family, whether a husband or father, 
 widow or unmarried person of either sex, by the word ' Head ;' other 
 members of a family by wife, mother , father , son, daughter, grand- 
 son, daughter-in-law, aunt, uncle, nephew, niece, servant, or other 
 properly distinctive term, according to the particular relationship 
 which the person bears to the head of the family. Distinguish be- 
 tween boarders, who sleep and board in one place, and lodgers, who 
 room in one place and board in another. If an inmate of an institu- 
 tion or school, write inmate, pupil, patient, prisoner, or some equiva- 
 lent term which will clearly distingviish inmates from the officers and 
 employes and their families. But all officers and employes of an 
 institution who reside in the institution building are to be accounted, 
 for census purposes, as one family, the head of which is the superin- 
 tendent, matron, or other officer in charge. If more than one family 
 resides in the institution building, group the members together and 
 distinguish them in some intelligible way. In addition to defining 
 their natural relationship to the head of the institution or of their own 
 immediate family, their official position in the institution, if any^ 
 should be also noted, thus : Superintendent, clerk, teacher, watchman, 
 nurse, etc. ' ' ^ 
 
 ' Eleventh Census. Instructions to Enumerators. 20. 
 ^ Eleventh Census. Instructions to Enumerators. 22, f. 
 
64 American Eco7iomic Association. 
 
 Most of the censuses of foreign countries took account 
 of the number of dwellings, and France ascertained 
 various details relating to the home, as the number of 
 living rooms, number of stories, etc. 
 
 In the latest English census tenements with less than 
 five rooms were tabulated as having one, two, three, 
 four, and over four rooms, and also by number of occu- 
 pants. The instructions were that, " all the space within 
 the external and party-walls of a building was to be con- 
 sidered a separate house By a ' tenement ' 
 
 was to be understood any part of a house occupied either 
 by the owner or by a tenant." ' 
 
 The use of the word " tenement " in the English 
 enumeration led to considerable confusion ; no instruc- 
 tions were given as to what constituted " a room."' 
 
 The experience of the latest English census sustains 
 me in advising that there should be no tabulation of the 
 number of dwellings. The Registrar writes that the 
 instructions in regard to dwellings and tenements "were 
 not universally observed, and often a block of buildings 
 consisting, according to the definition, of several distinct 
 houses, was treated as a single house, while on the other 
 hand portions of one and the same house held as differ- 
 ent tenements, were often counted as separate houses. 
 There is, moreover, very good ground for believing that 
 the introduction into the enumeration book of a new 
 column in which particulars were to be inserted as to 
 the number of rooms in a tenement has, by confusing 
 the enumerators, materially added to the frequency of 
 these errors, so that the figures must be received with 
 some reservation." 
 
 The last Scotch census ascertained and published the 
 
 1 Great Britain Commons Papers 1893, volume 106. Census of 
 England and Wales. General Report. 20. 
 
Age, Sex, Dzvellings, Fainilies, and Urban Population. 65 
 
 number of families, with specified number of members 
 by number of rooms with specified number of windows 
 and rooms without windows. 
 
 In our census of 1890 tables were published, as shown 
 by the following description : 
 
 DWELLINGS AND FAMILIES. 
 
 Total dwellings and persons to a dwelling, by states and territories. 
 
 Total families and persons to a family, by states and territories. 
 
 Total dwellings and families, and persons to a dwelling and to a family, 
 by counties. 
 
 Total dv.'ellings and families, and persons to a dwelling and to a family, 
 for places having 2,500 inhabitants or more. 
 
 Persons to a dwelling, in detail, by states and territories. 
 
 Persons to a dwelling, in detail, for cities having 25,000 inhabitants or 
 more. 
 
 Persons to a family, in detail, by states and territories. 
 
 Persons to a famil}', in detail, for cities having 25,000 inhabitants or 
 more. 
 
 Number of dwellings having specified number of familes, with average 
 number of families to a dwelling, for cities having 100,000 in- 
 habitants or more, and by wards for certain cities. 
 
 Number of families in dwellings according to specified number of 
 families, for cities having 100,000 inhabitants or more, and by 
 wards for certain cities. 
 
 The Massachusetts census of 1895 ascertained, in 
 considerable detail, the number of rooms occupied by 
 families (not the number of families in a dwelling- 
 house), and a description of the materials of which 
 dwellings were constructed. Even if it were desirable, 
 a national census could not undertake to ascertain the 
 sorts of materials entering into the construction of 
 dwellings, because the work of the Census Office could 
 not stand so mtich elaboration. 
 
 URBAN POPULATION. 
 
 I have already incidentally mentioned the subject of 
 urban population, and expressed the desirability of pre- 
 
66 
 
 America7i Economic Association. 
 
 senting tables for the larger cities for the subjects that 
 are related, either positively or negatively, to city life. 
 I would say that the work of the census of 1890 in pre- 
 senting tables for cities should be repeated and extended. 
 It would hardly seem advisable to increase the work 
 previously done in the preparation of social statistics of 
 cities, but rather to see that the work is placed in expert 
 hands in order that its accuracy may be assured. I 
 would suggest, however, that in the work on the social 
 statistics of cities, a special study of suburban transit be 
 made, and for that purpose I submit the accompanying 
 table, which is supposed to represent all of the lines for 
 passenger transportation running from suburban towns 
 and cities to New York city, and is to include the trains 
 running to the city ; a similar table to be provided for 
 trains running from the city : 
 
 POPUI.ATION. 
 
 Time to City Hali,. 
 
 {Surface cars. 
 Steam railways, 
 
 Number of , 
 trips possi 
 
 "IZs' i^'-s than 5 
 
 
 
 Minutes. 
 
 6-10 
 
 11-15 
 
 16-20 
 
 21-30 
 
 31-45 
 
 46-60 
 
 60-120 
 
 4 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 5 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 6 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 7 ' 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 8 ■■ 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 9 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 10 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Such a table as the foregoing is a matter of no singu- 
 lar importance, but is merely intended to be a part of 
 the so-called social statistics of cities. Its object is to 
 show how it happens that the long feared congestion of 
 population in parts of large cities is, or may be, relieved. 
 
 It hardly seems within the scope of this paper to 
 present, in detail, the varied investigations that need to 
 
Age, Sex, Dwellings , Families, and Urban Population. 67 
 
 be carried on in the collection of social statistics of 
 cities. It is a work of many details, and to formulate a 
 scheme of investigation would require months. 
 
 The subjects of urban growth, of the effects of city 
 life upon the people physically, morally, mentally and 
 financially, of municipal finance and management, the 
 question as to whether, and to what extent, the munici- 
 pality should own gas-works, water-works, etc., and 
 many other problems that I do not need to mention, 
 afford numerous opportuniciesfor statistical work on this 
 subject, but to what extent the Census Office should 
 undertake them, is open to discussion. Some of this field 
 has already been covered by the Department of Labor, 
 and some by other statistical offices, not always, 
 it is true, thoroughly and extensivel}', but yet, in the 
 case of the Department of lyabor, extensively enough to 
 indicate that the field can be covered by a statistical 
 office smaller than that of the Census Office, and, there- 
 fore, that the census need not be burdened with such 
 work. 
 
 The matter of tabulating the entire population with 
 regard to relationship to the head of the family calls for 
 no suggestions. This tabulation, which has been 
 omitted in the past, should be included. I suppose that 
 there is no disagreement as to the desirability of these 
 statistics, and in their tabulation they would require no 
 expensive elaboration. 
 
 George K. Holmes. 
 
 U. S. Department of Agriculture. 
 
Illiteracy and Educational Statistics. 
 
 The collection of statistical data to illustrate the 
 simplest elements of intellectual accomplishment and to 
 serve as a measure of society's activities in educating 
 the people of the land was first attempted for the whole 
 country in the census of 1840, and this branch of census 
 work has been continued in each succeeding enumera- 
 tion. From the first there have been two main lines of 
 inquiry : first, the data collected on the general popula- 
 tion schedules concerning the literacy of the population, 
 that is, the ability of each individual over a certain age 
 to read and write ; secondly, the data in regard to the 
 number of teachers, the educational institutions, expen- 
 diture, and other facts which would illustrate the great 
 social effort being made to uplift the people by educa- 
 tion, and the degree to which such opportunities are 
 used as indicated by the number of pupils attending. 
 The subject, therefore, may be conveniently divided into 
 two parts, illiteracy and educational statistics. 
 
 Illiteracy. 
 
 In the census of 1840 an enumeration was made 
 of the number of white persons over 20 years of age 
 who could not read or write. In 1850 a beginning 
 in the classification of illiterates was made, distin- 
 guishing them as white and free-colored, native 
 and foreign. The returns were tabulated by counties. 
 The superintendent expressed the opinion that the sta- 
 tistics, so far as the whites were concerned, were reliable. 
 The same classification was followed in i860, but the 
 returns were not tabulated for minor civil divisions. 
 In 1870 a change was made in the form of the schedule. 
 
Illiteracy and Educational Statistics. 69 
 
 and the table formerly reading, " Persons over 20 years 
 of age who cannot read or write " was subdivided into 
 two columns: "cannot read," and "cannot write." 
 The editor notes " that, great numbers of persons rather 
 than admit their ignorance, will claim to read, who will 
 not pretend that they can write. . . .If a man cannot 
 write, it is fair to assume that he cannot read well ; that 
 is, that he really comes within the illiterate class. . . . 
 Taking the whole country together, hundreds of thou- 
 sands of persons appear in the class ' cannot write ' 
 over and above those who confess that they cannot read. 
 This is the true number of the illiterate of the country ; 
 the class which it is now necessary to treat, for the 
 simple safety of our political institutions. "' 
 
 The limitation of age was also modified so as to in- 
 clude all persons above ten years of age. "Those 
 between the ages of ten and twenty who cannot read 
 and write are to constitute the class which in ten years 
 more will form the hopelessl)- illiterate of another 
 census. It is as important to determine the numbers of 
 our youth who are growing up in ignorance, . . .as to 
 determine the number of those who have passed the 
 period of youth in ignorance and who will, with few 
 exceptions, remain illiterate through life."^ At the 
 request of the Commissioner of Education and others 
 interested in public education, the illiterates were divi- 
 ded according to age into three classes, 10-15, I5~20, 
 20 and over. The classification then is as follows : 
 cannot write, distinguished as white and colored, and 
 native and foreign. Once more the returns are given 
 by counties. There is also a map showing illiteracy of 
 the eastern half of the United States.^ 
 
 ^ Ninth Census. Population and Social Statistics, xxx. 
 
 - Ibid. 
 
 ^ Idem., 393. 
 
70 
 
 American Economic Association. 
 
 The census of 1880 in general followed that of 1870. 
 Separate columns are given for those above ten years of 
 age unable to read and those unable to write. Illiter- 
 ates are also distinguished as white, native white, and 
 foreign white, 10 years of age and upward, and the 
 white and colored for the three age groups distinguished 
 by sex. The tables are not worked out for subdivisions 
 below that of states. 
 
 In 1890 the tabulation of statistics of illiterates was 
 very wisely carried much further, although little change 
 was made in the form of questions asked. ^ Of special 
 importance was the classification of parentage of the 
 native white population. This is a proper distinction, 
 as it might be expected that those of foreign parentage 
 would not be so eager to force their children to take ad- 
 vantage of educational opportunities as would those 
 whose native ancestry was of a longer period. A dis- 
 tinction was made, also, in the colored population, be- 
 tween those of negro descent and the Chinese, Japanese 
 and civilized Indians. 
 
 A new age classification is presented as follows : 10- 
 14, 15-19, 20-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, 65 and 
 over, and unknown. Through such a classification as 
 this, it is possible to draw some inferences as to whether 
 a state is keeping up an educational pressure or not. 
 There ought to be by right a lower percentage of illiter- 
 acy among the native whites of native parentage in the 
 age group 10-14 than in the group 15-19 ; and in every 
 one of the North Atlantic states this is the case. In 
 the South Atlantic states, however, beginning with 
 Delaware, with the exception of Maryland, the percent- 
 age for the lower age group is greater in comparison for 
 this whole section of states, being 14.8 for the age group 
 
 ' Eleventh Census. Population, 2 : xxx-lx and 193-252. 
 
Illiteracy and Educational Statistics. 71 
 
 10-14 ^'^^ II-5 for the age group 15-19. Of course 
 this increase in the lower age group may be due to the 
 fact that there is more deception to be found in the 
 older group than in the younger, or that opportunities 
 to read and write have come to the population after they 
 have passed the age of 14. 
 
 Such an age classification will also show how far an 
 American state influences a foreign-born population pro- 
 vided it can get its educational machinery at work upon 
 it early enough. For example, Massachusetts with her 
 compulsory law has exerted such activity that among 
 the foreign-born population, in the age group 10-14 but 
 3.4 per cent are illiterate, while in the age group 15—19 
 the percentage is 11. For the United States as a whole 
 the respective percentages are 5.9 and 10. i 
 
 Of equal importance is an age group classification in 
 studying the education of the colored race. It is not 
 encouraging, for example, to find in Alabama that, 
 while for the age group 15—19 the illiterates comprised 
 55.8 per cent, in the age group to— 14, they were 52.5 
 per cent. In Mississippi, however, there is a decrease 
 from 44.4 per cent in the higher age group to 36.6 
 in the lower. 
 
 No percentages are worked out for age subdivisions 
 above 20, and it is unfortunate, though by no means 
 an important error, that in some minor groupings the 
 age classification for the absolute numbers of illiter- 
 ates is not the same as obtains in the regular age classi- 
 fication. Of the total population, for example, the gen- 
 eral age classification is as follows : 20-24, 25-29, 30-34, 
 35-44, 45-54, 55 and over. The illiterates are classified 
 as 20^24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-^4, 65 and over. 
 The combination of figures for the age group 25-34 
 therefore requires a previous adjustment. 
 
72 American Economic Association. 
 
 Again, the degree of illiteracy is distinguished by 
 reporting those who can read but cannot write and those 
 those who can neither read nor write, and these are 
 further classified in regard to sex, nativity and parentage. 
 Whether a part of this tabulation might not be aban- 
 doned in favor of others is, I believe, a fair question to 
 raise. For example, it would be helpful to know whether 
 the native born illiterates, particularly of the age classes 
 10—14, and 15-19, were born within their own state; 
 and of the foreign born, it is highly desirable that their 
 particular nationality should be given in order that we 
 may know what countries are furnishing xis the largest 
 amount, not merely of temporary, but of more or less 
 permanent illiteracy. 
 
 In addition to classification by states, statistics are 
 given for 124 cities having 25,000 or more inhabitants, 
 for sex, nativity, degree of illiteracy, and age. 
 
 A new and interesting inquiry was introduced in 1890 
 in regard to ability to speak English.' There are tables 
 showing the total number of persons 10 years of age and 
 over who cannot speak English, classified by foreign 
 nativity, parentage and color, for states and also cities 
 having 25,000 or more inhabitants. These are classified 
 as to sex and according to the usual age groups. Infor- 
 mation was also gathered upon the schedules regarding 
 the particular language spoken by the individual unable 
 to speak English, but for lack of time the data as to the 
 various languages spoken were not worked up. Such a 
 tabulation would be of great interest in connection with 
 the statistics of immigration, for in that way an estimate 
 might be made of the degree of assimilation of foreigners 
 from different countries. It is to be hoped that it will 
 be insisted upon in the twelfth census. 
 
 ^Idem., Ix-lxv, and 253-278. 
 
Illiteracy and Educational Statistics. 73 
 
 In the use of statistics of illiteracy, questions arise as 
 to the probable accuracy of the data. Here it is im- 
 possible to speak with any positiveness, since it is diffi- 
 cult, and for the whole country impossible, to secure any 
 index by which we can test returns. In Massachusetts, 
 reports of illiteracy were published in the state censuses 
 of 1875 and 1885. The several censuses give the num- 
 ber of illiterates as follows : 
 
 1875 state census 104,513 
 
 1880 U.S. " 92,980 
 
 • 1885 state " 122,263 
 
 :89oU. S. " 114,468 
 
 It will be observed that the state census of five years 
 previous to that of the United States enuinerates more 
 illiterates than does the latter ; personally, however, I 
 do not believe that a variation of about 10 per cent in 
 an inquiry of this character, necessarily invalidates the 
 usefulness of the returns. 
 
 In the grouping of tlie statistics of illiteracy there is 
 another consideration as to whether the census should 
 follow the customary grouping of states followed in 
 other classifications of the population. For example, 
 what is known as the Western division includes New 
 Mexico. This has 42.8 per cent of native white 
 illiterates and Arizona has 7.9. The next highest in 
 the scale of illiteracy in this group is Colorado with 3.8.^ 
 New Mexico and Arizona have an entirely different past 
 history from that of the other states. They include a 
 native white population, of Spanish descent, which has 
 remained for a long time stationary in its educational 
 development. If we should throw out New Mexico and 
 Arizona, the percentage of illiteracy for the Western 
 group in the class of native whites would be less than 
 
 ' Idem. XXXV. 
 
74 Americayi Eco7ioinic Association. 
 
 that of the North Atlantic division. So, too, in the 
 South Central division Missouri is included which has a 
 different social past than that of the other states 
 included in this group. It would also be helpful if 
 tabulation could be made of rural districts as dis- 
 tinguished from the large cities, and possibly the tabu- 
 lation might include a few states by counties. 
 
 Sducational Statistics. 
 
 The statistics of school attendance are furnished for 
 the census in two ways : first, by returns on the general 
 population schedules ; and secondly by reports made by 
 educational institutions in a special monograph. From 
 the population schedules, the character of school atten- 
 dance is statistically described' as follows : the number 
 attending school by nativity, parentage of native whites, 
 age groups, as under 5, 5-9, 10-14, 15-19, 20 and over, 
 and these several age groups according to nativity, 
 parentage and sex. 
 
 These tables are not worked out in a form as conven- 
 ient as in the case of statistics of illiteracy. A table is 
 presented for the whole country which shows the percen- 
 tage of persons attending school, and the total persons of 
 the several age groups 5-9, 10-14, 15-19, 20 and over^ 
 but unfortunately percentages are not worked out for the 
 several states. If these tables, therefore, are used for 
 local work, reference must be made to the general popu- 
 lation returns in order to secure comparative results. 
 
 Detailed tables are also given showing the months of 
 school attendance as one month or less, 2—3 months, 4—5 
 months, 6 months or over, and this is given for the sev- 
 eral groups of population according to nativity and 
 
 ' Idem, xxvii-xxx and 135-192. 
 ^ Idem, xxvii. 
 
Illiteracy and Educatio7ial Statistics. 75 
 
 parentage. As to the accuracy of these reports there is 
 considerable doubt. For example, the number of native 
 whites of native parentage, 10—14 in Massachusetts, re- 
 ported as attending school was 71,065.' The total num- 
 ber of such children, however, in the state of that age is 
 tabulated in the general population tables as 75,017.^ 
 Native whites of foreign parentage, 10—14, ^-re given as 
 79,406^ against a total population of the same age group 
 of 86,530. Of foreign whites 10-14, those attending 
 school are returned as 23,391* against a total population 
 of 28,820. 
 
 The special monograph on education ma}' be regarded 
 as on the whole successful. " In marking out the lines 
 of inquiry for the eleventh census it was determined to 
 use a small number of questions that might be readily 
 answered and whose results could be quickly published. 
 .... It was the effort to gather educational facts in 
 the following order : first, according to their importance ; 
 second, according to the readiness with which they could 
 be furnished ; third, according to the facility with which 
 the results could be combined and published. Under the 
 first principle of selection it was desirable to know (a) 
 How many go to school? (b) Who go to school, indi- 
 cated by age, sex, and race? (c) How long do they go? 
 (d) What is the character of the work done, as elemen- 
 tary, secondary, or superior? questions applicable in 
 nearly every point to both teachers and pupils. The 
 financial questions were left to be treated by the census 
 division of wealth, debt, and taxation." '' The expert in 
 charge of this investigation makes an interesting and 
 intelligent criticism of the difficulties in the way of 
 
 ^Idem. 150. ^ Idem. 154. 
 
 '^ Idem. 44. ^'Idem. 158. 
 
 * Eleventh Census. Report on Education, 1. 
 
76 American Ecotioniic Associatio7t. 
 
 securing uniformity of returns. These it is not neces- 
 sary to rehearse. The difficulties appear to be fully 
 realized, and the editor has consequently been guarded 
 in the deductions which might be drawn. This special 
 monograph is to be commended, since it is the first time 
 the parochial schools have received so detailed a report- 
 ing, and statistics for the public schools are also furnished 
 by counties of the several states. 
 
 At the same time it is extremely unfortunate that 
 these returns of school enrollment should not agree 
 better with the returns of school attendance printed in 
 the volume on population. The school enrollment, in 
 eluding public, private and parocliial schools, largely 
 exceeds the returns given on the general schedules of 
 school attendance. The value, therefore, of one or the 
 other of these returns is immediately open to suspicion. 
 The total enrollment of pupils derived from the reports 
 of schools of the United States is 14,373,670.^ The re- 
 turn of total persons " attending school during the census 
 year" is 11,674,878,' a difference of two million and a 
 third. Again, the total number of teachers returned 
 in the occupation schedules is 341,952 ;' returned by the 
 school enrollment, is 422,929. Even if we should add 
 the professors in colleges and universities, teachers of 
 art and teachers of music, it would be difficult to reach 
 the latter enrollment. 
 
 In view of the fact that returns based upon school 
 or institutional reports are annually published by the 
 United States Bureau of Education, it is believed that 
 this field of inquiry might well be omitted in the cen- 
 sus. The difficulties so clearly appreciated by the editor 
 
 '^ Idem. 51. 
 
 '' Eleventh Census. Population, 2 : xxvii. 
 
 ^ Idem. 304. 
 
Illiteracy and Educational Statistics. 77 
 
 of the census monograph are of such a character that 
 the statistical returns need the uninterrupted treatment 
 and consideration of a permanent statistical system such 
 as might to advantage be further developed in the 
 Bureau of Education. 
 
 Davis R. Dewey. 
 
 Massachusetts Institute of Tectmology. 
 
statistics of Occupations. 
 
 INTRODUCTION. 
 
 In any analysis of the population especially from the 
 standpoint of economics, it must be of interest to know 
 what the people are doing. From the standpoint of 
 economics population is looked upon as labor force. 
 This labor force may be employed in one direction or 
 another : in cultivating the ground, in extracting min- 
 erals from the soil, in turning raw material into forms 
 fitted to satisfy human wants, in transporting commodi- 
 ties from one place to another, in distributing products 
 among the different members of the community or in 
 rendering personal services. The skill and efficiency 
 with which these things are done is a question of the 
 quality of labor ; the number of people engaged in doing 
 these particular things is a question of the quantity of 
 labor and is susceptible of statistical treatment. In 
 every modern census therefore, we have the total popu- 
 lation, or at least those engaged actively in production, 
 classified according to occupation. 
 
 The first impulse in classifying population according 
 to occupation, is to follow the traditional lines of eco- 
 nomic development. We have been accustomed to 
 speak of agriculture, of commerce and trade, of manu- 
 factures, or industry, of the liberal professions and pos- 
 sibly of domestic service. We speak of one country as 
 prevailingly agricultural, of another as industrial, of a 
 third as devoted to commerce. The history of economic 
 civilization seems to use somewhat the same categories. 
 Thus, while we speak of early communities in the pas- 
 toral or agricultural stage, and think of the mediaeval 
 
Statistics of Occupations. 79 
 
 period as one of traders and handicraftsmen, we charac- 
 terize modern nations as commercial-industrial. Even 
 economic categories may be made to follow much the 
 same lines : — as agriculture, mining and fishing are ex- 
 tractive industries, manufacturing creates form-utility, 
 transportation creates place-utility, mercantile trade dis- 
 tributes the products and the professions render eco- 
 nomic services thus satisfying human wants. 
 
 In most censuses, therefore, we find the population 
 distributed under the following heads. 
 
 Agriculture, often including mining and fisheries. 
 Trade and transportation. 
 Industry and manufactures. 
 Professional services. 
 Domestic services. 
 Unoccupied. 
 There are variations of this classification but by com- 
 bination they can generally be reduced to the above 
 headings. 
 
 With such a classification of population, interesting 
 comparisons can be made both in space and time. We 
 can show, for instance, the prevailingly industrial char- 
 acter of the population of England, and the agricultural 
 character of that of Italy. We can compare different 
 sections of the same country, as England and Ireland, 
 Prussia and Bavaria, the agricultural East Provinces of 
 Prussia, and the industrial Rhine Provinces. We can 
 make comparisons in time, showing the growing in- 
 dustry of Germany, or the increasing devotion of its 
 population to trade and commerce. We can detect, as 
 in the case of England, the tendency to employ less of 
 the national labor-force in the work of production proper, 
 and more in that of distribution and consumption. 
 The moment we begin to make use of such a general 
 
8o American Economic Association. 
 
 classification, there is at once suggested the thought that 
 the details which lie behind these great classes, might 
 also be interesting. Under the head of agriculture we 
 might like to know, not only the divisions into agri- 
 culture proper, mining and fisheries, but also the number 
 of people devoted to cattle-raising, to gardening, to 
 forest-culture, the number of farmers compared with 
 farm laborers, etc. Under the head of industry we 
 should like to know what particular branches of in- 
 dustry, such as iron and steel, the textile industries, 
 making machinery, etc., occupy the population. The 
 number of lawyers, physicians and clergymen stiggests 
 itself at once as a suitable method of subdivision under 
 the head of professional services. There seems no limit 
 in this direction to the number of subdivisions. We 
 might like to know the general number of men engaged 
 in the building trades, or, for the purpose of studying 
 certain conditions, the number of brick-layers or hod- 
 carriers. The only question involved, apparently, is 
 whether an occupation is distinct enough to be classified 
 by itself. The census of Massachusetts, in 1885, dis- 
 tinguished horse-radish peddler as an occupation. 
 
 Here also we may institute comparisons in space. 
 We can compare the number of men engaged in the 
 iron industry in Germ.any, France, England and the 
 United States. We can compare the number of cotton 
 spinners in England and the number of spindles with 
 the number of cotton spinners in the United States, and 
 the number of spindles. Such international compari- 
 sons are diincult and must be made with caution because 
 of differing nomenclature. Comparisons restrict them- 
 selves, for the most part, to the number of men engaged 
 in leading industries. 
 
 Comparisons in time within the same country are 
 
Statistics of Occupations. 8i 
 
 somewhat easier. We can trace from decade to decade 
 the increasing number of cotton spinners in England, 
 or the decreasing number of ribbon weavers, or the sta- 
 tionary state of the agricultural laboring population. 
 There may be some dispute about the interpretation of 
 these movements and care must be taken that the statis- 
 tics rest on the same basis. But with the necessary 
 caution we have here a useful instrument for stud)ing 
 economic changes. 
 
 These are the main uses of occupation statistics, but 
 they do not exhaust, by any means, the material. We 
 can correlate the figures for occupation with others per- 
 taining to the population in an almost endless variety 
 of ways. Some of these are as follows : 
 
 (a) Sex and occupation. This is very interesting, es- 
 pecially when considering the question of the employ- 
 ment of women in factories, the supplanting of men by 
 women, or the opening up to women of new methods of 
 earning a livelihood. 
 
 (b) Conjugal condition and occupation. This throws 
 light upon social conditions accompanying various occu- 
 pations, and upon practical questions, such as the em- 
 ployment of married women in factories. 
 
 (c) Age and occupation. This often gives rise to in- 
 teresting inferences in regard to the demand of particu- 
 lar occupations upon strength and activity, experience 
 and trustworthiness, capital and financial resources. 
 
 (d) Vital statistics and occupation. This correlation 
 has excited great interest as bearing upon the healthful- 
 ness of particular employments, danger to life and limb, 
 sanitary and moral surroundings, etc. 
 
 (e) Race and nationality and occupation. These are 
 almost peculiar to the United States and have particu- 
 
 6 
 
82 American Economic Association. 
 
 lar significance both for sociological study and for prac- 
 tical questions of the political and economic develop- 
 ment of this country. 
 
 Many other correlations are possible as with illiteracy, 
 drunkenness aud crime, pauperism, physical and mental 
 infirmity, economic condition, etc., not to speak of 
 triple or quadruple combinations such as age, sex, con- 
 jugal condition and occupation. It is evident that we 
 have here a field for interesting comparisons and this 
 field has in fact been cultivated with considerable in- 
 dustry by the statistician, the sociologist, the social re- 
 former and the " crank." Our business, however, is 
 not to consider the results but to determine the quality 
 of the material and the validity of the methods em- 
 ployed. 
 
 The vital point of all statistics of occupations is the 
 question of classification. At first sight there would 
 seem to be no difiiculty in getting truthful answers to 
 the simple census inquiry, " Occupation !" It is a per- 
 fectly natural question, not calculated to excite resent- 
 ment nor inviting a false answer either from fear of 
 evil consequences or hope of gain. A few persons may 
 be pursuing such dishonest or shameful trades that they 
 wish to conceal them, but their number must be small 
 and they belong either in the criminal class, or from 
 the economic point of view in the unproductive class. 
 Nor would it seem that any person could be so ignorant 
 as not to know the occupation by which he gains his 
 livelihood. There are of course minor difficulties, as 
 when a man pursues two or more occupations, e. £■., & 
 country store-keeper who is also post-master, or as 
 when a man is farmer in summer and fisherman in 
 winter, but these minor difficulties are summarily 
 solved by demanding a man's principal occupation^ 
 
statistics of Occupations. 83 
 
 that is, the one which contributes most to his liveli- 
 hood, or which he follows the greater part of the year. 
 There is also the question of women and children who 
 assist their husband or father a part of the time in store 
 or shop, thus contributing to the support of the family. 
 They do not really belong to the occupation, in the full 
 sense of the word, any more than the man who writes a 
 letter to the newspaper is really a journalist. We are 
 not trying to measure- the exact amount of labor-force 
 expended in particular industries, although in certain 
 cases the influence of this outside competition on pro- 
 fessional remuneration may become an interesting sub- 
 ject of study. 
 
 The great difificulty in statistics of occupation is to 
 deterinine what you have in mind when you speak of a 
 person's occupation. Are you thinking of the particular 
 thing that a man does, as hoeing .potatoes, or sawing 
 wood, or selling dry goods ; or, are you thinking of the 
 product to which he contributes, such as a railroad-car, 
 or a wooden building ; or are you thinking of the place 
 where he works, as taking care of horses on a farm, 
 or in a street railroad stable ; or are you thinking of 
 the position which he occupies, as the contractor who 
 agrees to lay so many yards of stone work, or the mason 
 who actually handles the stones ? Take, for instance, a 
 boss-painter in a car-works shop owned by a railroad ; 
 is he a painter, or a car-maker, or a railroad employee, 
 or a foreman ? If you ask the man Iiimself he may 
 answer any one of these four things. Either the dis- 
 tinction must be in the mind of the enumerator and he 
 must determine how the answer is to be worded ; or he 
 may enter a compound answer, such as : — boss-painter, 
 car-works, Pennsylvania Railroad. In the latter case 
 the responsibility is simply carried one step further and 
 
84 American Economic Association. 
 
 thrown upon the tabulator. The matter is complicated 
 by the fact that we often need a qualifying term, in 
 order to distinguish two occupations, bearing nominally 
 the same name, but which are really different ; and this 
 qualifying term is often the name of the thing produced, 
 the service rendered, or the place where the industry is 
 carried on. Thus, there is a real distinction between an 
 agricultural laborer, a railroad navvy and a day-laborer. 
 The qualifying terms, however, are not intended to 
 classify the men according to industry, but to distin- 
 guish the character of their occupation. A street car 
 driver is not the same thing as a private coachman, 
 although both handle horses. On the other hand, it 
 would be a little difficult to define the difference between 
 a hostler in a street car stable, and a hostler in a livery 
 stable. 
 
 In order to reach any systematic classification, it is 
 evident that we must keep one object in view and use 
 all our qualifying terms as interpreting that one object, 
 merely, and not as introducing any further classification 
 or supplying any further information. Any other 
 course lands us in inextricable confusion. 
 
 METHOD OF THE ELEVENTH CENSUS. 
 
 The principle of classification adopted by the Census 
 Office is explained in the following words : ' 
 
 " The primary purpose of the classification in occupations in 1890 
 has been to show, so far as the returns of the census enumerators 
 would permit, the character of the service rendered or kind of work 
 done rather than to indicate the place of employment or the particu- 
 lar article made or worked upon. From the standpoint of the ' indi ■ 
 vidual ' return this is really the only practicable basis for classifying 
 occupations especially as from the returns of the manufacturing, 
 mechanical, and mining industries we are enabled to secure through 
 the census an approximately accurate statement of the average num- 
 ber of persons of all sorts and kinds engaged in each particular indus- 
 
 ' Eleventh Census. Population, 2;lxxvi, end. 
 
statistics of Occupations. 85 
 
 try, as derived from the returns of the establishments directly engaged 
 in such production, and from which it is also possible to secure, 
 wherever necessary, a much more minute subdivision and correct 
 classification of the labor essential to the production of any specified 
 kind of goods." 
 
 Additional evidence on this point is afforded by the 
 detailed instructions to enumerators. Specimens of 
 these instructions are as follows : 
 
 ' ' Do not confuse the agricultural laborer, who works on the farm 
 or plantation, with the general or day laborer, who works on the road 
 or at odd jobs in the village or town. Distinguish also between wood 
 choppers at work regularly in the woods or forests and the laborer 
 who takes a job occasionally at chopping wood." 
 
 " Stenographers and typewriters should be reported separately, and 
 should not be described simply as ' clerks.' " 
 
 ' ' Distinguish between butchers whose business is to slaughter 
 cattle, swine, etc., and provision dealers who sell meats only." 
 
 "In reporting occupations pertaining to manufactures there are 
 many difiiculties in the way of showing the kind of work done rather 
 than the article made or the place worked in. The nature of certain 
 occupations is such that it is well-nigh impossible to find properly 
 descriptive terms without the use of some expression relating to the 
 article made, or place in which the work is carried on." 
 
 " Distinguish also between glovers, hatters, or furriers who actually 
 make or make up, in their own establishments, all or part of the 
 gloves, hats or furs which they sell, and the persons who simply deal 
 in but do not make these articles. ' ' 
 
 ' ' Do not use the words ' factory operative ' but specify in every 
 instance the kind of work done, as cotton-mill spinner, silk-mill 
 weaver, etc. " 
 
 ' ' Avoid in all cases the use of the word ' mechanic ' and state 
 whether a carpenter, mason, house painter, machinist, plumber, etc."' 
 
 The office also disclaims,^ in words quoted from the 
 Tenth Census, the notion that there need be any corre- 
 spondence between these returns of occupations, and the 
 statistics of persons employed, derived from the returns 
 relating to Manufactures, Mineral Industries and other 
 industrial operations, where the establishment, and not 
 the individual, is the basis of tabulation. 
 
 'Eleventh Census. Instructions to Enumerators, 25-31, and Popula- 
 tion 2 ; Ixxvii. 
 ^ Population 2 : Ixxviii. 
 
86 American Economic Association. 
 
 The oflBcials of the eleventh census had a perfectly 
 correct notion of what they were trying to do in the 
 statistics of occupations. How far were they successful 
 in carrying out this method? This brings us to a sec- 
 ond great difficulty, namely, to determine what really 
 distinguishes one occupation from another and how many 
 classes of occupations it is necessary to have. The num- 
 ber of employments or kinds of work which differ from 
 each other in some respect is very great. The clerk in a 
 dry goods shop is not engaged in exactly the same kind 
 of work as the clerk in a tailoring establishment. It is 
 obvious, however, that we must throw employments of a 
 similar nature together in order to handle our material. 
 The principle upon which this is to be done is not very 
 clear but can be none other than the general one of the 
 kind of work done. That there is no concensus of opin- 
 ion on this question is shown by the fact that in the 
 census of 1850 there were 323 occupation designations ; 
 in i860, 584; in 1870, 338 ; in 1880, 265 ; and in 1890, 
 218 ; which last number in some of the tables is still 
 further reduced to 181. It is not necessary to be hyper- 
 critical in this matter, — a few minor occupations more 
 or less make but little difference, provided the more im- 
 portant ones are consistently arranged according to some 
 general principle. How far the eleventh census was 
 successful in such arrangement, can be determined only 
 by inspection. For this purpose, we take up the various 
 occupations arranged under the five great heads. Agri- 
 culture, Fisheries and Mining ; Professional Service ; 
 Domestic and Personal Service ; Trade and Transporta- 
 tion ; Manufacturing and Mechanical Industries. 
 
 The occupations grouped under Agriculture seem to 
 be logical and reasonably distinct. The great mass of 
 persons are either farmers, planters, or overseers (5,281,- 
 
Statistics of Occupations . 87 
 
 557) ; or agricultural laborers (3,004,061) ; with a con- 
 siderable number of miners (349,592) ; and the rest are 
 arranged under the heads apiarists, dairymen and dairy- 
 women, fishermen and oystermen, gardeners, florists, 
 nurserymen and vine-growers, lumbermen and raftsmen, 
 quarrymen, stockraisers, herders and drovers, wood- 
 choppers, and " other agricultural pursuits." 
 
 The second great group, Professional Service, is also 
 reasonably successful ; the main categories, professors 
 and teachers, lawyers, physicians, clergymen, govern- 
 mental officials, present but few difficulties. There 
 might be some question whether musicians and teachers 
 of music belong to the same class, or why artists and 
 teachers of art, should be separated from musicians. 
 They do very much the same work. 
 
 Under Domestic and Personal Service there are 
 domestic servants, nurses and midwives, launderers and 
 laundresses, etc. There are, however, nearly two 
 million " laborers not specified " of whom we shall 
 speak presently. 
 
 Under Trade and Transportation we have a number 
 of occupations belonging to trade, such as merchants 
 and dealers, book-keepers, clerks and salesmen, huck- 
 sters and peddlers ; and others belonging to transporta- 
 tion, such as dra}'men, hackmen, teamsters, and street 
 railroad employees. The distinction between bankers 
 and brokers, on the one side, and officials of banks and 
 of insurance, trade, transportation, trust and other com- 
 panies, is not altogether clear. 
 
 But it is under the last head, Manufacturing and 
 Mechanical Industries, that the greatest difficulties are 
 met. We have, first, a series of well-defined occupa- 
 tions, such as bakers, blacksmiths, butchers, cabinet- 
 makers, candle, soap and tallow-makers, carpenters and 
 
88 American Economic Association. 
 
 joiners, coopers, gunsmiths, locksmiths, and bell hang- 
 ers, masons, painters, glaziers and varnishers, plasterers, 
 plumbers and gas and steam fitters, tailors and tailor- 
 esses, upholsterers and wheelwrights, which remind us 
 of a list of the old English handicrafts. The factory 
 system, however, has evidently made itself felt and we 
 have cotton mill operatives, hosiery and knitting mill 
 operatives, mill and factory operatives not specified, 
 paper mill operatives, print works operatives, rubber 
 factory operatives, silk mill operatives and woolen mill 
 operatives. There is evidently considerable danger 
 here of confusing the industry classification with the 
 occupation classification. This danger becomes greater, 
 in some other designations which it was found neces- 
 sary to use, such as chemical works employees, gas 
 works employees, iron and steel workers, saw and plan- 
 ing mill employees, etc. This confusion becomes 
 greater when we have side by side carriage and wagon- 
 makers (not otherwise classified) and wheelwrights ; and 
 such general designations as apprentices, machinists, 
 mechanics (not otherwise specified), metal workers 
 (not otherwise specified), and wood workers (not other- 
 wise specified). 
 
 These things are pointed out, not in a spirit of criti- 
 cism, but as showing the difificulty of any system of 
 classification. It is evident that it would be compara- 
 tively easy with a very slight stretching of terms to 
 transpose large bodies of men from one occtipation to 
 another. This does not so much matter for any one 
 census, but it makes comparison between different cen- 
 suses in regard to the number of men of a specified 
 occupation extremely uncertain. This is the probable 
 explanation of some of the extraordinary percentages of 
 increase shown in the comparative tables for 1870, 1880 
 
Statistics of Occupations . 89 
 
 and 1890, notwithstanding the conscientious efforts to 
 harmonize the occupation groups. For instance, taking 
 only 1880 and 1890, there has been an absohate decrease 
 in the number of agricultural laborers, while farmers, 
 planters and overseers have increased from 4,000,000 to 
 5,000,000. Bearing in mind that population increased 
 only 24 per cent and the total number of persons en- 
 gaged in gainful occupations only 30 per cent, it is 
 rather astonishing that lumbermen and raftsmen in- 
 creased 115 per cent, woodchoppers 165 per cent, fisher- 
 men and oystermen, 50 per cent, and miners 50 per cent. 
 So, too, it is rather extraordinary, under professional ser- 
 vices, that artists and teachers of art should have in- 
 creased 147 per cent, musicians and teachers of music 
 100 per cent, while professors and teacliers increased 
 onlv 50 per cent. Under the liead of trade and trans- 
 portation, book-keepers, clerks and salesmen increased 
 nearly 90 per cent. Under manufactures and me- 
 chanical industries, we have carpenters and joiners in- 
 creasing 60 per cent, and painters, glaziers and varnish- 
 ers, 69 per cent. On the other hand we have an abso- 
 lute decrease of cabinet makers, carriage and wagon 
 makers, coopers, gold and silver workers, and wheel- 
 wrights.' 
 
 Doubtless many of these cases can be explained as due 
 to changes in industry and others probably represent the 
 more careful enumeration and classification of the 
 eleventh census. But such facts introduce an element 
 of uncertainty into all study of changes in employment 
 from decade to decade. 
 
 On the whole, therefore, although the eleventh census 
 propounded a logical system of classification, it does not 
 seem to have been particularly successful in carrying it 
 
 'Eleventh Census. Population, 2;ci,ff. 
 
go Americayi Economic Association. 
 
 out. Whether this was owing to the inherent difficulty 
 of the subject or to the lack of care and intelligence on 
 the part of the enumerators, it is impossible for an out- 
 sider to say. 
 
 It must be noticed, too, that the grand groups. Agri- 
 culture, Professional Service, Trade and Transportation, 
 etc., are made up by combining the occupation groups. 
 These grand heads, at first blush, would seem to be a 
 classification by productive industry, and we are thus 
 seeking an industrial grouping on the basis of occupa- 
 tional returns. This leads to some anomolous results. 
 It is true, perhaps, that a book-keeper in a cotton mill 
 may be said to belong to trade, a porter in a brewery to 
 transportation, and a laborer in any of these undertak- 
 ings to be rendering personal service. But such a dis- 
 tinction is an unnatural one and gives an air of unreality 
 to the grouping. It does not seem quite right that 
 engineers and firemen (not locomotive), should be put 
 down to domestic and personal service, when the mass 
 of them are, probably, iri factories and workshops. The 
 most serious item is the 1,913,373 laborers not specified, 
 who constitute nearly one-half of the persons classified 
 under the head of domestic and personal service. Doubt- 
 less man}- of these are really agricultural laborers, who 
 are often returned simply as laborers. 'Many of them, 
 however, must belong to manufacturing and mechanical 
 industries. It is not quite clear how, starting with our 
 principle of occupation statistics, we can group them into 
 these great divisions. But it is quite clear that the pro- 
 cedure in itself is not particularly satisfactory. The re- 
 sult of this criticism is that we must be cautious about 
 using these figures for comparative purposes, either in 
 space (sections of the country), or time (increase or 
 decrease of particular industries). On the other hand 
 
Statistics of Occupations. gi 
 
 where simply indications are needed, as the appearance 
 of a new industry or the increased employment of women, 
 or the prominence of certain nationalities in general lines 
 of industry, such as mining, or iron and steel-working, 
 they may be used. These facts will come out more 
 clearly when we examine critically the use the census 
 has made of these figures in its comparative tables. We 
 shall not pretend to give results except as illustrations 
 of this great question of method. 
 
 RESUI,TS OF THB ELEVENTH CENSUS AND METHODS OF ANALYSIS. 
 
 The Number of the Employed. — The first figure is the 
 number of persons engaged in gainful occupations in 
 the United States in 1890. For this purpose are con- 
 sidered only persons ten years of age and over. The 
 total number was 22,735,661, out of a population ten 
 years of age and over of 47,413,559. This makes 36.3 
 per cent of the total population, or 48 per cent of the 
 population ten years of age and over." 
 
 This figure of course is fundamental and shows that 
 a little over one-third of the total population supports 
 the remaining two-thirds. Comparisons in space are 
 shown on the following page of the census volume, where 
 the number of persons ten years of age and over engaged 
 in gainful occupations is compared for each division and 
 each state and territory of the United States. There are 
 considerable variations, the proportion of persons en- 
 gaged in gainful occupations of the population ten years 
 and over varying from 41 per cent in West Virginia to 
 67 in Alontana. The cause of this variation is doubtless 
 the age constitution and the character of the prevailing 
 industries. In a state like Montana we should probably 
 find a large number of male adults, engaged in mining 
 'Eleventh Census. Population, 2:lxxx. 
 
gi A?nencan Econoinic Associatioyi. 
 
 and other occupations where only men are employed. 
 There would be few women and children and little or 
 no employment for them. Tlie proportion of persons, 
 therefore, engaged in gainful occupations will be large. 
 In an older state there would be more women and 
 children and, if the opportunities for employment were 
 small, the percentage of persons engaged in gainful 
 occupations would be small. We may have an inter- 
 mediate condition of things, namely, a state like Rhode 
 Island (56.4 per cent), where there is a large number of 
 women and children and where opportunity is given for 
 their employment in factories. An exceptional case 
 seems to be a state like South Carolina where 55 per 
 cent of the population ten years of age and over are en- 
 gaged in gainful occupations. The explanation here is 
 that large numl:)ers of negro women and children work 
 in the field. Our comparisons in space amount to but 
 little in themselves and need to be explained by differ- 
 ences of age constitution and industrial environment. 
 
 Comparisons in time might seem to be useful as show- 
 ing whether an increasing or decreasing proportion of 
 the population is engaged in productive industry. The 
 census shows' that, while in 1890 36.3 per cent of the 
 total population and 48 per cent of the population ten 
 years of age and over were engaged in gainful occupa- 
 tions, in 1880 the per cents were 34.7 and 47.3 respectively. 
 This would seem to show an increase in the number of 
 persons. The difference, however, is due to the fact 
 that the proportionate number of children in 1890 (at 
 least those returned by the census) was considerably less 
 than in 1880. 
 
 Occupation and Sex. — The first analysis of occupa- 
 tion statistics is by sex, that is, to .show the proportion 
 
 ^ Ibid.^ Ixxx. 
 
Statistics of Occupations. 93 
 
 of male and female persons engaged in gainful occupa- 
 tions. Many interesting questions are connected with 
 this distinction, especially when we make note of clianges 
 in time, differences in space, characteristics of particular 
 occupations and of particular elements of the popula- 
 tion, such as the colored, tlie foreign-born, the children 
 of the foreign-born, particular nationalities, etc. 
 
 In making this analysis by sex there are two methods 
 which must be kept distinct, for they serve different 
 purposes. In the first place, we may say that out of 
 one hundred of the population ten years of age and over, 
 engaged in gainful occupations, 82.8 per cent were 
 males and 17.2 per cent were females. And we may 
 carry this out for various occupations as follows : ' 
 
 Males. Females. Total. 
 
 Agriculture, fisheries and mining, 92.5 7.5 100 
 
 Professional service, 67.0 33.0 icx3 
 
 Domestic and personal service 61.7 38.3 100 
 
 Trade and transportation, 93.1 6.9 100 
 
 Manufacturing and mechanical industries, 79.8 20.2 100 
 
 This method is interesting as showing in a general 
 way how far the two sexes contribute to the number of 
 persons engaged in different industries. It is a bad 
 method, however, the moment we attempt to make 
 comparisons either in space or time. For, the propor- 
 tion of the sexes being different in different sections or 
 at different times, that would nattirally make a differ- 
 ence in the proportion engaged in gainful occupations. 
 
 The second method consists in determining, out of 
 one hundred persons of either sex, how many are en- 
 gaged in gainful occupations. It thus appears ^ that ']'] 
 per cent of the male population ten years of age and 
 over, are engaged in gainful occupation, while onh' 17 
 per cent of the female population ten years of age and 
 
 ' Idem, -SLC 
 
 ^ Idem, Ixxxiii. 
 
94 American Economic Association. 
 
 over are thus engaged. This method answers the real 
 question as to the employment of women as compared 
 with men. It also permits comparisons in space and 
 time. We have for instance, the comparisons for differ- 
 ent parts of the Union. In the North Atlantic division 
 20.5 per cent of the female population ten years of age 
 and over are engaged in gainful occupations, while in 
 the North Central division only 12.5 per cent are thus, 
 engaged. This points to the factory industry in the 
 first group of states. As far as time is concerned it 
 would seem that the employment of women is increas- 
 ing, for in 1880 only 14.7 per cent of, the female popula- 
 tion ten years of age and over were engaged in gainful 
 occupations, as compared with 17.0 per cent in 1890. 
 The method has its limitations, as we shall see further 
 on, but on the whole it seems to be valid ' 
 
 Occupation and Age. — The second correlation is that of 
 determining the ages of the persons engaged in gainful 
 occupations. Here as before we have two methods. 
 You may take one hundred persons in gainful occupa- 
 tions and show how many are from ten to fourteen 
 years of age, from fifteen to nineteen years, from twenty 
 
 ' A third analysis maybe mentioned in this connection which is valid 
 and interesting, /. ^., to show how many of 100 males or 100 females- 
 engaged in gainful occupations are in each group. {Idem, cxi and 
 cxii ) . The result for the Uuited States is as follows : 
 
 Males. Females. 
 
 Agriculture, fisheries and mining, 44.3 17.4 
 
 Professional service, 3.4 8.0 
 
 Domestic and personal service, 14.3 42.6 
 
 Trade and transportation, 16.4 5.8 
 
 Manufacturing and mechanical industries, 21.6 26.2 
 
 This shows in which industries the males are chiefly employed and 
 in which the females. The comparison is extended to states and ter- 
 ritories and for the three censuses, 1870, 1880 and 1890. 
 
Statistics of Occupations. 95 
 
 to twenty-four years, etc' This method is not very 
 satisfactory for the reason mentioned above, that com- 
 parisons in time and space are difficult because of the 
 changing age constitution. 
 
 The second method is to take the total number of per- 
 sons in each age-group and show the percentage engaged 
 in gainful occupations. We have such a comparison^ 
 showing also the distinction of sex. 
 
 The chief question of interest in regard to occupations 
 by age periods is the employment of. children. It ap- 
 pears that of males ten to fourteen years 11. 2 per cent, 
 and of females 5.9 per cent, are engaged in gainful oc- 
 cupations. " As compared with 1880, this shows a very 
 great diminution in the proportion of children at work, 
 although the exact decrease cannot be determined on 
 account of the slight difference in the age classification 
 of persons occupied in 1880 as compared with 1890. At 
 the census of 1880 there were 835,187 males and 293,169 
 females ten to fifteen years of age at work, constituting 
 respectively 24.4 and 9 per cent of the whole number of 
 males and females of the ages stated." ' 
 
 A similar comparison of the children ten to fourteen 
 years in each of the elements of the population ma}- be 
 made. This shows that of the colored children ten to 
 fourteen years of age, the percentage engaged in gainful 
 occupations is 29.7, of the foreign born it is 15.6, of the 
 native white of foreign parentage, 7.5, and of the native 
 white of native parentage, 7.4. These figures apply to 
 males ; the corresponding figures for females are much 
 smaller. 
 
 '^ Idem, cxxiii. 
 
 ' Idem, cxxi. A third analysis is to show the distribution of 100 
 males (or females) of each age class, among the different grand occu- 
 pations [Idem, cxxiii). This comparison is interesting and valid, 
 although it is not so generally useful as the one just mentioned. 
 
 ' Idem, cxxii. 
 
96 America7i Economic Association. 
 
 Other figures for children ten to fourteen years of age 
 show that, out of 100 male children engaged in gainful 
 occupations, 63.9 are engaged in agriculture, o.i in 
 professional service, 12.6 in domestic and personal 
 service, 9.8 in trade and transportation, 13.6 in manu- 
 facturing and mechanical industries. The correspond- 
 ing figures for females are : agriculture, 41.4, professional 
 service, .2, domestic and personal service, 38.3, trade 
 and transportation, 2.6, manufacturing and mechanical 
 industry, 17.5.^ 
 
 The next correlation would naturally be between oc- 
 cupation and conjugal condition. We need not go into 
 the results except to say it appears that, of the total num- 
 ber of married women, only 4.6 per cent are engaged in 
 gainful occupations, and that tnore than one-half of these 
 are negro women. ^ The principal occupations are agri- 
 culture, domestic service and manufacturing.^ 
 
 Our comparisons thus far have been of a general 
 nature and apply for the most past to the whole body of 
 persons engaged in gainful occupations distinguished 
 according to certain general marks such as sex, age and 
 conjugal condition. It is probable that even with these 
 grand groups we must be cautious about extending our 
 comparisons very far, either in time or space, because of 
 the imperfection of our material. Especially in regard 
 to particular occupations we must be cautious on ac- 
 count of the uncertainty of the classification. 
 
 We come now to a study of peculiar interest to the 
 United States, especially in connection with occupations, 
 namely, the study of the population according to race, 
 birthplace and parentage. The statistics are carried 
 
 ^ Idem, cxxiii, second table. 
 
 ''■Idem, cxxvi, table and cxxix, first table. 
 
 ^Idem, cxxix, second table. 
 
Statistics of Occupations. 97 
 
 out in great detail in the census analysis. The ques- 
 tion is how far this analysis is based on correct princi- 
 ples and how far the results are trustworthy. 
 
 It is necessary to remark in the first place that direct 
 comparison of these different classes with each other is 
 quite useless because of the differences in age constitu- 
 tion. The fact that 58.1 per cent of the foreign white 
 population of ten years of age and over are engaged in 
 gainful occupations as compared with only 43.6 per cent 
 of the native white' means nothing, because we know 
 that among the foreign whites adult males are largely 
 represented, while the native whites include many more 
 women and children. Many of the tables in the an- 
 alysis are of this character and are entirely superfluous 
 if not misleading. 
 
 These statistics may be used for the purpose of 
 answering two definite questions : (a) How much each 
 element contributes to the labor force of the United 
 States or to the labor force employed in a particular in- 
 dustry ; and (b) How the labor force of each element, as 
 for instance the foreign-born, distributes itself in differ- 
 ent industries. 
 
 The most important of these questions is the first. 
 That can be answered directly. For instance, out of 
 the 22,735,661 persons engaged in gainful occupations 
 5,104,757, or 22.5 per cent are of foreign birth. ^ That 
 figure measures the contribution of the foreign-born to 
 the labor force of the United States. We can go a step 
 further and add to the foreign-born the native whites of 
 foreign parents (3,542,408) making 8,647,165 persons of 
 foreign extraction, or 38 per cent of the total labor force. 
 
 '^Idem, cxiii, table. 
 ^ Idem, cxvii, table. 
 
98 A-merica7i Econoinic Association. 
 
 By a further step we can show how each element con- 
 tributes to the labor force in each grand group of 
 occupations. For instance, to agriculture the native 
 white of native parents contribute 56.8 per cent, the 
 native white of foreign parents 8.8, the foreign whites 
 14.5, and the colored 19.9.' 
 
 We can extend this method to particular occupations 
 and show what portion of the labor force is contributed 
 by each element of the population. Such a table is 
 given both for males^ and for females^ in certain occupa- 
 tions. Some of the results seem exceedingly probable. 
 For instance, the foreign whites constitute only 9.5 per 
 cent of the farm laborers and only 14.7 per cent of the 
 farmers, planters and overseers, while they constitute 
 44.5 per cent of the gardeners, florists, nurserymen and 
 vine growers, and 48.7 per cent of the miners and 
 quarrymen. They constitute 21 per cent of the clergy- 
 men, but only 6.7 per cent of the lawyers. They con- 
 stitute 49.7 per cent of the restaurant and saloon keepers 
 and 71 per cent of the tailors. The native whites of 
 foreign parents constitute 48 per cent of the apprentices 
 and 45 per cent of the plumbers and gas and steam fitters. 
 These figures are interesting as showing the way in 
 which certain occupations are going into the hands of 
 certain elements of the population. 
 
 We may, if we choose, subdivide our foreign-born 
 into nationalities according to country of birth. We 
 can thus show that of 100 foreign-born persons engaged 
 in gainful occupations 28.7 were born in Germany, 20.4 
 in Ireland, 13.3 in Great Britain, 10.2 in British 
 
 ' Ibid. 
 
 '■Idem, cxviii. 
 ^ Idem, cxix. 
 
statistics of Occupatioyis. 99 
 
 America and so on.' The same method is employed for 
 each of the grand groups of occupations. 
 
 The census goes even a step further and attempts to 
 analyze the total contribution of persons of foreign birth 
 and descent to the labor force of the United States. 
 For this purpose it takes the number of white persons 
 ten years of age and over, having mothers born in for- 
 eign countries, and shows the number and per cent en- 
 gaged in gainful occupations. The comparison be- 
 tween different nationalities' is useless, because the dif- 
 ferences are due simply to the differences in the ages. 
 The table on the following page is perhaps justifiable as 
 showing the contribution of each of the foreign elements 
 to the labor force in each occupation. It may be 
 doubted, however, whether this analysis is not carrying 
 refinement a little too far. Kven if the principle is cor- 
 rect, the uncertainty of the original data is sufficiently 
 great to make us doubt whether the labor is worth the 
 pains. 
 
 We turn back now to our second method of analysis. 
 We may like to know how each element of the popula- 
 tion, the foreign-born, colored, native whites of foreign 
 parents and native whites of native parents, distributes 
 itself over different occupations. This is shown in a 
 table" where it appears, for instance, that the foreign 
 white population is employed, 25.6 per cent in agricul- 
 ture, 2.2 per cent in professional service, 26.9 per 
 cent in domestic and personal service ; 14 per cent in 
 trade and transportation, and 31.3 per cent in manu- 
 facturing and mechanical industries. 
 
 This same system is carried out for particular occupa- 
 
 ' Idem, cxlvii. 
 
 ' Idem, civ, second table. 
 
 ' Idem, cxvi. 
 
lOO American Economic Association. 
 
 tions and sex' for those born in Germany, Ireland, Great 
 Britain, etc., for grand gronps of occupations ; ^ for the 
 minor classes of occupations and sex ; ^ for persons hav- 
 ing mothers born in certain specified countries for grand 
 groups of occupations, and sex ; ^ and finally for sex, 
 mother's birthplace and the minor classes of occupa- 
 tions.^ 
 
 It must be observed in regard to this second class of 
 statistics that we, perhaps, are going a little too far. The 
 practical question we have in mind, probably, is what 
 sort of occupations our immigrants choose. We are 
 measuring, as it were, their relative capacity for indus- 
 trial life, and basing upon it prognostications as to the 
 future. It must be observed, however, that the choice 
 of an occupation depends partly upon sex and age, and 
 thus again differences in age and sex constitution may 
 vitiate our comparisons. 
 
 Again, we may use these correlations of occupations 
 with race, birthplace and parentage to answer certain 
 specific questions ; as, for instance, whether the native 
 or foreign born are most inclined to employ their wo- 
 men and children in gainful occupations. Thus, it ap- 
 pears that, of the colored female population ten years 
 and over, 36.2 per cent are engaged in gainful occupa- 
 tions ; of the foreign white, 19.4 per cent ; of the native 
 white of foreign parentage, 20.8 ; and of the native 
 white of native parentage, 10.9 per cent. But these re- 
 sults are very doubtful. Taking the last two percenta- 
 ges it would seem that the native whites of foreign pa- 
 rents are more heavily represented in gainful occupa- 
 
 ' Idem, cxx, f . 
 
 ^ Idem, cxlix. 
 
 ^ Idein, cl-clv. 
 
 * Idem, clviii, Table. 
 
 ^ Idem, clix, ff. 
 
Statistics of Occupations. loi 
 
 tions than the native whites of native parents as far as 
 females are concerned. If we look at males, we find 
 that of native white males of foreign parentage 70.3 
 per cent, and of native white males of native parentage 
 73.9 percent, are engaged in gainful occupations.' Does 
 this mean that the daughters of foreign parents are more 
 inclined to work than the daughters of native parents, 
 while the reverse is true of the sons ? The explanation 
 is found in the age classification, where it will be found 
 that, at those ages where females are most employed, 
 namely from 15 to 19, and from 20 to 24, the native white 
 females of foreign parentage are more numerously 
 represented than the native white females of native 
 parents. In plain words this great tendency of females 
 of foreign parentage to go into gainful occupations is 
 due simply to the demand for domestic servants. 
 
 The remaining analyses of occupations according to 
 illiteracy,- citizenship,' and ability to speak English,' 
 seem to me to be useless and to confuse cause and effect. 
 The occupation is not the cause of these things, but it 
 is owing to the fact that certain nationalities which have 
 been here for a greater or a shorter time are thrown into 
 certain occupations, that we have these figures. 
 
 Finally, the census made an effort by direct inquiry 
 to find out whether persons were unemployed in their 
 principal occupation during the year, and for how long 
 they were thus unemployed. The investigation does 
 not seem to have been very successful, and the data are 
 so uncertain that the detailed analysis by occupations^ 
 seems to me entirely useless. 
 
 1 Ibid. 
 
 "^ Idem, cxxi-cxxxiii. 
 ' Idetn, clxiii-clxvii. 
 * fdeni, cxxxiv-cxxxvi. 
 'Idem, cxxxvi-cxlii. 
 
102 American Economic Association . 
 
 METHOD AND SCOPE OF THE TWEI<FTH CENSUS. 
 
 What is to be said under this head must be based up- 
 on consideration of the experience of this and other 
 countries with the two conflicting systems of classifica- 
 tion, and upon our criticism of the analysis of occupation 
 statistics found in the eleventh census. From this study 
 the following points seem to me worth)- of consideration. 
 
 It is probable that in the twelfth census, as in the pre- 
 ceding ones and in all countries of Europe, it will be 
 necessary to continue the general classification of the 
 population under the grand heads. Agriculture, Trade 
 and Transportation, Industry, etc. The general practice 
 seems to be to put Mining with Manufactures or Indus- 
 try rather than with Agriculture, and I think the 
 twelfth census would do well to return to the practice of 
 the tenth in this respect. Otherwise the classes may 
 remain as they are. For purposes of comparison with 
 the eleventh census, it will be easy to transfer Mining 
 in that census to Manufactures. 
 
 This grand classification is essentially one by indus- 
 tries. This fact must be recognized if the classification 
 is to be continued. For this purpose it seems to me 
 essential that strenuous efforts should be made to divide 
 up that great body of laborers who are now clas.sified 
 under domestic and personal service, and place them 
 ■under Agriculture, Trade and Transportation, or Manu- 
 factures, where doubtless the greater portion of them be- 
 long. This is probably a question of making the 
 enumerators discard the title " laborer " and substitute 
 for it a compound term, such as, agricultural laborer, 
 railroad laborer, etc. There will doubtless be a residue 
 of day or general laborers, which will still come under 
 the class of domestic and personal service. 
 
Statistics of Occupations. 103 
 
 It seems to me also necessary that book-keepers, 
 clerks, accountants, etc., should receive a subsidiary 
 title designating the particular business in which they 
 are employed. There would seem to be no particular 
 difficulty in doing this. The distinction is already made 
 between officials of trade and transportation companies 
 and officials of manufacturing companies, and there 
 seems to be no reason why the same thing should not be 
 done for clerks. 
 
 This system would not prevent a classification accord- 
 ing to the character of the work done, while it would 
 make the grand grouping more precise. 
 
 In regard to the analysis the following remarks may 
 be made. 
 
 (i) A great part of the anal3sis in the eleventh cen- 
 sus is useless, because the age and sex constitution varies 
 so in the different elements of the population that it 
 vitiates all the comparisons. 
 
 (2) Comparisons of the number of persons in occupa- 
 tions from one decade to another, or in one section of 
 the country compared with another, must probably be 
 confined to large groups, such as railroad employees, 
 cotton mill operatives, and the like, on account of the 
 uncertainty of the minuter classifications. 
 
 (3) The analysis as a rule should confine itself to the 
 discussion of specific questions, such as the employment 
 of women and children, the presence of certain nation- 
 alities in certain industries, etc. 
 
 (4) The question in regard to unemployment by 
 months might better be abandoned, and the analysis 
 in regard to occupation and illiteracy, citizenship and 
 ability to speak English, is of little consequence. 
 
 (5) The number of persons dependent upon the wage- 
 earner in each branch of industry was not tabulated in 
 
I04 American Economic Association. 
 
 the eleventh census, although the facts were on the 
 schedules and might easily have been brought out. It 
 is hoped that the twelfth census will attempt this for at 
 least the grand groups of occupations and the principal 
 elements of the population. 
 
 Richmond Mayo-Smith. 
 
 Columbia University . 
 
APPENDIX. 
 
 PREVIOUS CENSUSES IN THE UNITED STATES. 
 
 It is Stated in the Eleventh Census/ that : 
 
 "Prior to 1850 no effort was made to obtain through the census 
 enumerators detailed statements as to the occupations of the people, 
 although in 1820 and again in 1840 the number of persons engaged in 
 certain general classes of occupations was called for. 
 
 At the census of 1850 an inquiry was made on the population sched- 
 ule as to the occupations of free males over 15 years of age, the 
 printed results comprising 323 occupation designations in an alpha- 
 betical list, without classification according to the number engaged in 
 each of the great classes, as agriculture, manufactures, and the like, 
 and without any details as to their age or nationality. 
 
 Again in i860 a similar alphabetical list of the occupations of free 
 persons over 15 years of age, without distinction of sex, was printed in 
 the report for that census, this list comprising 5S4 occupation designa- 
 tions but without classification or description of the persons so occu- 
 pied. 
 
 At the census of 1870 occupations were tabulated for all persons 10 
 years of age and over, subdivided by sex, age and nationalit}', and 
 cla.ssified under four general heads, namely : agriculture ; professional 
 and personal services ; trade and transportation ; and manufactures 
 and mechanical and mining industries. The presentation of occupa- 
 tions in 1870 covered 33S occupation designations. 
 
 In 1880 the classification of occupations used in the census of 1870 
 was maintained, but the number of occupation designations was re- 
 duced to 265. Similarly, the subdivision by sex, age and principal 
 nationalities was observed, but the number of separate nationalities 
 was considerably less in 1880 than in 1870." 
 
 The report goes on to say : 
 
 " At the present census (1890) no radical departure was made from 
 the general plan of classifying occupations adopted in 1870 and 1880, 
 but several changes were made for various reasons, and the number 
 of occnpation designations still further reduced to 218." 
 
 If we turn now to the census of 1880,^ we shall find 
 that, while the occupations have not been changed to 
 
 'Population, 2 : Ixxv.f. 
 
 ^Tenth Census i : 708, quoting Ninth Census i : 661. 
 
io5 American Ecojiotnic Associaiiott. 
 
 any great extent the principle of classification in 1880 
 was radically different from that pursued in 1890. The 
 plan in 1880, following that adopted in 1870, was "To 
 refer every specification of occupation to some grand 
 division of industry ; and within each of such grand 
 divisions to constitute as many distinct subdivisions as 
 the nature of the material furnished by the enumerators 
 would allow to be formed with a reasonable approach 
 to completeness." The principle adopted here is that 
 of classification b)' grand industries and not that of oc- 
 cupations which was followed in 1890. In fact the 
 Superintendent avowedly rejected the system of express- 
 ing the employments of the people through a large 
 number of minute and precise specifications, susceptible 
 of being combined and re-combined successively accord- 
 ing to different ideas or theories of classification. His 
 reasons for this are that the subdivision of labor and 
 the organization of industry in the United States really 
 correspond rather to the larger classification than to the 
 smaller, owing to the lack of division of labor ; and, 
 secondly, that the average enumerator is incapable of 
 carrying out any body of instructions respecting the re- 
 turns of occupations which require more than the plain 
 and simple characterization of each main employment 
 in the common phrase of the working people them- 
 selves. 
 
 In accordance with this plan the title " clerk " ap- 
 pears under the head of professional services, and also 
 under the head of manufactures and mining, so far as 
 the persons are employed in a purely clerical capacity in 
 those branches of industry, while under the title of 
 trade and transportation, clerks appear several times as 
 " clerks in stores", " clerks in banks ", " clerks in rail- 
 road offices ", etc. 
 
Statistics of Occupations. 107 
 
 It thus appears that the census of 1890, for better or 
 worse, made a radical departure from the principle of 
 1880. 
 
 In other respects the census of 1880 was peculiar, or 
 at least different from that of 1890, inasmuch as Miuing 
 was put under the head of i\Ianufactures. As the 
 Superintendent remarks : " Mining is like Agriculture, 
 in that it obtains the raw material of subsequent indus- 
 trial processes and it is like ?Janufactures in that its 
 agencies and forces are chiefly mechanical not chemi- 
 cal." ' Which position is right may be doubtful, but in 
 Europe the custom is to group it with Industry rather 
 than with Agriculture. There seems to be less excuse 
 for grouping Fisheries with Manufactures. 
 
 The returns of 1880 are analysed according to sex ; 
 by three groups of ages namely 10 to 15, 16 to 50, 50 
 and over ; according to six nationalities ; and dis- 
 tributed according to states and territories. 
 ^ Tenth Census, 1:708. 
 
VITAL AND SOCIAL STATISTICS. 
 The Mortality Statistics of the Eleventh Census. 
 
 The vital statistics reports of the census have grown 
 in unwieldy bulk and increased in tardiness more or less 
 regularly with each successive census, until the reports for 
 1890 exceed in size tliose of any previous census, and the 
 most important volume for the use of the majority of 
 the state registration and sanitary services in this 
 countr}-' was not distributed until 1898, or nearly eight 
 years after the end of the year for which the statistics 
 were collected. As a result, much of the interest and 
 value of these statistics have been lost. The accuracy 
 and usefulness of these volumes are not in proportion to 
 their size and to the length of time occupied in their 
 preparation and publication. 
 
 Fundamental imperfections of the census statistics oj 
 mortality. — Ever since the first attempt to present mor- 
 tality statistics in the seventh census (1850), the neces- 
 sary unreliability of data collected by the method of 
 enumeration, as contrasted with the proper method of 
 immediate registration, has been thoroughly understood 
 by the authorities in charge of the census. Neverthe- 
 less, the same blunder has been committed decade after 
 decade in the framing of the census law, until to-day, 
 after half a century has shown the impossibility of 
 securing reliable statistics by this method, a census bill 
 is before the House of Representatives for action, after 
 passage by the Senate, which contains the same defective 
 provisions. It may be questioned, in this matter of legis- 
 lation for obtaining mortality statistics by the census^ 
 
 'Eleventh Census. Vital and Social Statistics. Part I. 
 
The Mortality Statistics of the Eleventh Census. 109 
 
 whether a blunder, after sufficiently long repetition, ever 
 becomes a crime. Perhaps, if the mortality statistics of 
 the census were presented sufficientl)- early to be of 
 greater interest to sanitarians and to the public, and in a 
 manner in which their bald imperfections would be more 
 conspicuous, instead of being more or less concealed by 
 the mass of secondary details, there would arise a more 
 urgent public demand for better methods in this branch 
 of the work. 
 
 The only mortality statistics of reliable character pre- 
 sented by the census are those with whose collectio7i the 
 census had nothing to do. Even in the rates presented 
 for the registration states, comprising only about one- 
 third of the population of the country and about one- 
 twenty-fifth of its area, there is no certainty that the 
 same degree of accuracy of registration exists.' Some 
 very misleading comparisons may be the result of imper- 
 fections of registration in some of the registration states 
 and cities. The census ought to be able to verify the 
 accuracy of its data in all cases, and for the non-registra- 
 tion states this is absolutely essential, if we are to know 
 anything at all in a definite way in regard to their 
 mortality. 
 
 I may be excused from proving the primary assump- 
 tion that the first duty of a registration service, or of a 
 census which deals with mortality statistics, is to supply 
 reliable death rates. This is the first and fundamental 
 requisite of a satisfactory sanitary service, and no elab- 
 oration of other ratios will excuse its absence. No one 
 knows except by conjecture what the death rate of the 
 United States is, nor can the relative prevalence of the 
 important infectious diseases be satisfactorily determined 
 from the census data. 
 
 '[For evidence that this accuracy varies see belovp, 128, table. — 
 W. F. \V.] 
 
no 
 
 Ainerican Economic Association. 
 
 Registratio7i and non-registration areas. — The dis- 
 tinction between the registration and non-registration 
 areas is so important, as affecting the validity of the 
 census statistics of mortality, that it may be useful to 
 insert a map showing the probable registration area 
 
 MAP SHOWING REGISTRATION AND NON-REGISTRATION STATES, 
 
 States having registration of deaths based on certificates of death 
 and burial permits are black. 
 
 for the coming census. Since 1890, only two states have 
 been added to this area, Maine in 1891, and Michigan 
 in 1897, so that the prospect of improvement of the gen- 
 eral mortality statistics of the census by the gradual ex- 
 tension of state registration, unless something is done 
 to further such extension, would seem to be slight. The 
 population represented by registration records in 1890 
 was 21,093,320, and that for which the statistics were 
 obtained by enumeration was 41,528,930.' The statis- 
 tics presented for the registration area are second-hand, 
 that is to say, the census has simply made a somewhat 
 more elaborate compilation of data which are already 
 accessible to a large extent in the state and municipal 
 reports. It is in the non-registration area that the col- 
 
 'Eleventh Census. Compendium, 2 ; 3. But compare Idem, Vital 
 Statistics, i : 11. 
 
The Mortality Statistics of the Eleventh Ce7isus. 1 1 1 
 
 lection of reliable mortality statistics is chiefly needed, 
 and there the census ought to be able to perform the 
 most valuable service, inasmuch as the public health of- 
 ficials of the non-registration states have now no reliable 
 means of measuring the efficiency of sanitary work. 
 
 There has been retrogression in the accuracy of the 
 statistics of the non-registration states in 1890, as com- 
 pared with the preceding census. This is frankly ad- 
 mitted by the compilers of the census : 
 
 "This death rate [13.98 for the entire country] is lower than that 
 given in the census of 1880, viz., 15.09, and higher than that given in 
 the census of 1870, viz., 12.77. This does not indicate any actual 
 change in the death rate, but rather that the enumerators' returns of 
 the eleventh census are more deficient as regards the deaths than was 
 the case in 1880." ^ 
 
 " The actual death rate for the non-registration area in 1880, as based 
 upon the enumerators' retiims, was 13.42 per 1,000 of population, while 
 the same class of returns now give a rate of but 10.79 P^'' 1,000 ; hence 
 there must either have been a great increase in the healthfulness of 
 the country or the enumerators' returns must be more incomplete as 
 regards deaths than they were in 1880." ^ 
 
 So that the main purpose of these statistics of mor- 
 tality, the determination of the variations of sanitary 
 condition in the country, is not accomplished. It may 
 be pertinent to inquire why. even if we can expect no 
 improvement, the results obtained by the census of 1890 
 should not have been at least as good as in 1880. 
 
 Systematic neglect of non-registration states. — This 
 falling off in the accuracy of the returns from the non- 
 registration localities may be due, at least in part, to a 
 tendency of the census authorities to give less attention 
 to statistics known to be imperfect. There has even 
 been, it would seem, a slight leaning toward a policy of 
 coercion. In a paper by Air. William A. King, chief 
 of the division of vital statistics of the eleventh census, 
 on the " Vital Statistics of the Census," it is stated : 
 
 ' Eleventh Census. Compendium, 2 ; 3. 
 ^ Idem, 4. 
 
112 Ain erica n Econ o m ic A ssocia tio n . 
 
 "A number of additional states, including Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, 
 Michigan, Minnesota, Kansas and others, and numerous cities, have 
 laws requiring the registration of deaths, and the data required con- 
 cerning each death, run all the wa}- from the full details furnished in 
 Massachusetts and New York to the simple statement that John 
 Smith, aged 57, died of 'heart failure.' 
 
 "It will thus be seen that if the clause, 'the data for which shall 
 be obtained from the registration records of those states and munici- 
 palities possessing such records,' is construed as mandatory, and the 
 question settled by the mere fact of the existence of a registration law, 
 however inadequate, the value of the aggregate results would be little 
 better than if the enumerators' returns were included. On the other 
 hand, the exclusion of such records would, doubtless, soon lead to 
 such amendment of existing laws and practical administration of the 
 same as to warrant their .subsequent adoption." ' 
 
 The fallacy of this conclusion cannot be better shown 
 than by the fact that of the many states left without 
 adequate mortality statistics by the last and preceding 
 censuses, only two, Maine and Michigan, have instituted 
 systems of accurate registration during the last decade, 
 and in their cases the neglect of the government was 
 probably an insignificant factor in leading to the change. 
 While the general government will certainly not be 
 able to increase the number of registration states to any 
 extent by overlooking their interests in the census, it is 
 in its power, as I fully believe, by encouraging and fos- 
 tering their efforts in the direction of reliable registra- 
 tion, and by giving them a suitable example, to increase 
 very rapidly the registration area. Such work implies 
 continuous effort and foresight in the central registra- 
 tion office. 
 
 It would have been well, indeed, if the census authori- 
 ties had made a somewhat more careful study of the 
 results obtained by the state registration systems. This 
 would have avoided the serious mistake of including 
 Alabama among the registration states, an error which 
 appeared as late as the second volume of the Compen- 
 
 ' Am. Stat. Assn. Publications. 5 : 2i4,f (1897). 
 
The Mortality Statistics of the Eleventh Census. 113 
 
 dium published in 1894, but which was rectified in the 
 final report.^ The most casual examination of the 
 Alabama law and of the annual reports based thereon 
 would have shown that the mortality statistics of that 
 state were among the most defective of any published 
 by the non-registration states. The considerable num- 
 ber of returns made by state authority in such states as 
 Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and others, returns which 
 were not far below those of the census in completeness, 
 might have been utilized, and by properly supplementing 
 them the results in those states might have been greatly 
 improved. Finally, by consulting the state records, 
 even when of an imperfect character, valuable information 
 could have been obtained as to whether the data for the 
 census year were fairly typical on not. This fault 
 indeed, is common to all the deductions of the census, 
 for registration as well as for non-registration states. A 
 peculiarity in the epidemic prevalence of diseases in the 
 particular year selected for the census would vitiate en- 
 tirely all of the general conclusions regarding the 
 changes in mortality. Exception must be made of the 
 six large cities, whose data were studied for a six-year 
 period ending at the time of the census ; conclusions 
 bases on these studies are much more reliable. 
 
 The elastic scale of proportional deaths. — Passing 
 from the fundamental imperfections relating to the col- 
 lection of the mortality data of the census, we may note 
 in the presentation of the data collected a very serious 
 fault and one which quite unfits the statistics of mor- 
 tality for general reference by the practical sanitarian. 
 I allude to the use, in the statement of mortality for the 
 non-registration states, of proportional deaths, or deaths 
 
 ' Compare the lists of registration states in Compendium, 2 : 3 ( 1894) 
 and Vital Statistics, i : 10 (1896). 
 
114 American Eoonomic Association. 
 
 from a given cause per i,ooo deaths from known causes, 
 to the entire exclusion of legitimate death rates. 
 
 These proportional deaths are the basis of most of 
 the showy cartograms presented in the mortality reports 
 of the tenth and eleventh censuses, and were, in fact, 
 begun under the ninth census. They have never before 
 been carried out quite so elaborately, however, as in the 
 last census, and may be said to form quite a characteristic 
 feature of these reports. Certainly, they are the feat- 
 ure to which the student of hygiene or health officer 
 would first direct his attention in the examination of 
 the census reports, and from which he would suppose 
 himself able to draw valuable information as to the rela- 
 tive prevalence of diseases. They are, however, entirely 
 unreliable, and even in many cases misleading. 
 
 The impropriety of making comparisons of mortality 
 by means of a shifting or elastic scale ought to be evi- 
 dent without special discussion. The false conclusions 
 which may be drawn may be readily seen by comparing 
 two states, one of high and one of low general mortality. 
 
 Any given cause of death, e. g., consumption, may be 
 twice as fatal in proportion to population in the one 
 state as in the other, yet if a sufficient excess of deaths 
 from other causes occur in the state having an excessive 
 mortality, the apparent ratio (proportional deaths) may 
 be the same or even less in the state which really has 
 the higher death rate. This source of error pervades 
 the entire use of these ratios. As the size of the ratio 
 is dependent upon two factors, directly, upon the number 
 of deaths from any given disease and, inversely, upon the 
 number of deaths from all diseases, it is evident that the 
 relations of these factors must be thoroughly investi- 
 gated before any dependence can be placed upon them. 
 This is as much as to say that, for all ordinary practical 
 
The Mortality Statistics of the Eleventh Census. 115 
 
 purposes, they are worthless, for the preliminary inves- 
 tigation of their validity is a difScult and tedious matter. 
 Other things being equal, these proportional rates 
 may show the same variations as the actual death rates. 
 Their unreliability comes from the uncertainty attend- 
 ing this proviso. If other things are not equal, a very 
 considerable error may attend the use of these compari- 
 sons. The imperfections attending the employment of 
 this method are, indeed, alluded to in the census, as fol- 
 lows : 
 
 " For the rest of the country [the non-registration states] the only 
 rates which are of any value are those which can be obtained from the 
 record of deaths alone, without reference to its completeness or to 
 population, being such as the number of deaths due to a given cause 
 per 1,000 deaths from all causes, or at a given age per 1,000 deaths at 
 all ages, or combinations of these two ratios, with distinctions of 
 color, sex, etc. Such rates, as is well known to statisticians, have 
 little positive scientific value as compared with the ratios of deaths to 
 population ; nevertheless, they furnish some valuable information and 
 suggestions, and are, therefore, given in this report to a considerable 
 extent." * 
 
 It may be added that they also furnish much misin- 
 formation, and the suggestions to be derived from them 
 are nearly as likely to be wrong as right. Why per- 
 petuate, then, this pseudo-scientific system of alleged 
 mortality rates, which have little in common with genu- 
 ine death rates based upon population, but which are 
 often mistaken for them in the attempted use of these 
 census statistics \)y sanitarians ? Death rates, although 
 not accurate, would permit of the same relative compar- 
 isons, providing the accuracy of enumeration in differ- 
 ent states was approximately the same. This ought to 
 be true, and if not so, then the census ought to be able 
 to determine what states or groups of states were fairly 
 comparable. Morever, if the approximate amount of 
 
 ' Eleventh Census. Vital statistics, 1:1. 
 
ii6 American Economic Association. 
 
 correction were known, as could be readily determined 
 by the collection of representative statistics from selected 
 areas of each state, the comparability of the data wonld 
 be greatly enhanced. 
 
 Misleading inferences fro7n proportional " death 
 rates." — As a concrete example of the misleading con- 
 clusions which are liable to be drawn from the employ- 
 ment of these seductive ratios, I may quote from the 
 report of the Chicago department of health for July, 
 1897. Under the title, " Chicago as a Health Resort," 
 a paper by Prof. John A. Robison, on the very import, 
 ant subject of the sanitarium treatment of consumption 
 in home climates, is referred to as follows : 
 
 " with reference to pulmonary consumption, this is especially true 
 of Chicago and the strip of territory Ij'ing along the western shore of 
 Lake Michigan ; and when this fact [greater healthfulness] substan- 
 tiated by a sketch map and certain statistics from the eleventh 
 national census, was pointed out to Dr. Robison, he at once recog- 
 nized its importance as bearing upon his project. The substance of 
 his paper is as follows : 'Several weeks ago, Dr. F. W. Reilly, assist- 
 ant commissioner of health, handed me the subjoined map and called 
 my attention to the fact that, contrary to popular belief, the death 
 rate [proportional deaths] from pulmonary consumption was less, 
 adjacent to the west shore of Lake Michigan than further inland. 
 According to the census of 1890, the death rate [proportional deaths] 
 along the lake shore was 84 per 1,000 [deaths], while twenty miles and 
 more inland it was 124 per 1,000 [deaths]. . . What may be the ex- 
 planation of this difference ? One would naturally expect that the 
 conditions for the increase of tuberculosis — such as overcrowding of 
 the population, poor hygenic surroundings, poverty, poor food and 
 filth — would cause a greater death rate in Chicago. Is the difference 
 due to the greater prevalence of other contagious and infectious dis- 
 eases, so that the relative lowness of the figures would be due to this 
 factor, or are there climatic differences which make a residence con- 
 tiguous to the lake more healthful? There may be a mathematical 
 puzzle here, but we are inclined to think that the climate of the great 
 lakes has been ignorantly maligned in the past. ' " ' 
 
 1 Chicago Department of Health. Bureau and Division Reports, July, 
 1897, p. 4. Dr. Robison's paper was printed in Nortli American 
 Practitioner, July 1897. 
 
The Mortality Statistics of the Elevenih Census. 1 1 7 
 
 Of course, the explanation suggested above, but not 
 adopted, is probably the correct one. The high death 
 rates in the lake cities from diarrheal diseases, etc., 
 cause the proportional mortality from consumption to 
 be unduly depressed. While the proportional deaths 
 from consumption in the lake counties of Illinois (in- 
 cluding Chicago) were only 89 per 1,000 deaths, as 
 compared with 116 and 132 iu the river and central 
 counties respectively, the true death rates from con- 
 sumption per 100,000 population in the lake, river and 
 central counties were 212.4, 129.6, and 136.2, respect- 
 ively — a very different showing. In the latter com- 
 parison the death rate for the lake counties is exclusive 
 of the city of Chicago, thus eliminating the influence of 
 more accurate registration in this group. 
 
 In attempting to make some use of the mortality sta- 
 tistics of the census for comparisons of my own state 
 with other adjacent ones, the liability to such misleading 
 conclusions was at once apparent, and the fact was re- 
 cognized that the census statistics were practically 
 worthless for such important sanitary purposes unless 
 some means could be found of checking their aberra- 
 tions. For this purpose a set of true death rates was 
 calculated for the several state groups of T^Iichigan, In- 
 diana, Illinois, Ohio and Wisconsin, and their relations 
 to the proportional deaths given by the census was found. 
 A serious difficulty in the computation of these death 
 rates, but one which would not have occurred if they 
 had been properly presented by the census, is the elimi- 
 nation of registration cities from the non-registration 
 states. No attempt has been made to take out any except 
 the largest ones. The close relations between the varia- 
 tions of the two sets of figures thus obtained seem to neg- 
 ative the assumption of the census authorities that death 
 
Ii8 American Economic Association. 
 
 rates for non-registration states are worthless, because 
 they are not complete. The relative indications of the 
 death rates, in many cases correspond closely to those of 
 proportional deaths, as " other things being equal," they 
 should, and when discrepancies appear, I believe that 
 the undue variation, in most cases, will be found on the 
 side of the proportional deaths. Certainly, there is no 
 reason why an enumeration conducted in exactly the 
 same way over adjacent states, or even over the entire 
 non-registration area, should not yield reasonably com- 
 parable results. 
 
 Ratios upon which no dependence can be placed 
 until verified by elaborate calculations ought to have 
 no place in an official report intended for general refer- 
 ence. However, not only have the misleading maps 
 been retained, but a second series, based on the same 
 erroneous principle, has been added, showing the pro- 
 portional deaths for " grand groups " as well as " state 
 groups." These will not embarrass the practiced sta- 
 tistician to any extent, for he will examine them with 
 the full knowledge that for any exact conclusions they 
 are not reliable, and will readily understand the appar- 
 ent inconsistencies of the color distribution dependent 
 upon the use of two different scales of color and two 
 different units of area. The state of mind of a health 
 ofHcer or sanitary student, without special training in 
 the devious ways of these peculiar statistics, may be 
 imagined when he consults, e. _^., Map 19' and perceives 
 from the shading that consumption is apparently more 
 prevalent in the central counties of Michigan than in 
 the lake counties (including the entire Upper Penin- 
 sula), while Map 20^ represents the mortality of the 
 
 ' Eleventh Census. Vital Statistics, i : Map 19, facing p. 324. 
 'Idem., Map 20, p. 330. 
 
The Mortality Statistics of the Eleventh Census. 119 
 
 entire state from consumption as approximately the 
 same. Or scarlet fever may appear in one carto- 
 gram to be markedly more prevalent in the central 
 counties/ and in the next cartogram'^ just the reverse. 
 The explanation of these apparent discrepancies is, 
 of course, very simple, but the fact that it has to 
 be made unfits them for a report intended for general 
 use. Vital statistics ought to be unambiguous in their 
 indications. 
 
 Conclusions and recommendatio^is. — These criticisms 
 have confessedly covered a very small part of the census 
 volumes, and have made no reference either to the sub- 
 ject of occupations of decedents, which has occupied a 
 considerable part of the space given to vital statistics in 
 the census, or to some other matters of importance. 
 This is partly due to the fact that the work has been 
 only very recently published, and, also to the fact, as 
 shown above, that so much labor must be put into the 
 reports in order to draw reliable conclusions that their 
 use is practically prohibited. I believe, however, that 
 the two most important respects in which improvement 
 is desirable have been considered. These are : (i) 
 Improvement in the collection of data ; (2) Substitution 
 of death rates, with some criterion of their approximate 
 accuracy, for all proportional deaths in non-registration 
 as well as registration states. 
 
 What is most needed to make the vital statistics of the 
 census of sanitary use may be summarized as follows : 
 
 I. A permanent organization. Spasmodic efforts every 
 ten years, wholly discontinued in the intervals, cannot 
 achieve the best results. Continuous work is more 
 
 '^ Idem., Map 2, facing p. 234. 
 ''■Idem., Map 3, p. 236. 
 
I20 American Economic Association. 
 
 necessary for reliable vital statistics than for any other 
 department of census work. 
 
 2. A closer relation between the census and state and 
 municipal registration. The national bureau should 
 exert a directive influence and promote the establish- 
 ment of state registration offices on proper lines. Its 
 influence in this respect in the past has been almost nil. 
 
 3. Prompt presentation of the data collected. 
 
 4. Exact knowledge of the accuracy of registration, 
 by special investigation of selected representative dis- 
 tricts in registration and non-registration states alike. 
 
 5. Study of the intercensal rates of registration states, 
 cities, and also of those non-registration states having 
 uniform records, in order that the epidemic or typical 
 character of the census year may be known. 
 
 6. Use of death rates based upon population for all 
 comparative purposes, with the entire discarding of 
 unreliable methods of statement, such as proportional 
 deaths. By the use of two or more colors upon a map, 
 each having the usual gradations of shading, the differ- 
 ent degrees of accuracy of registration could be defined, 
 so that there would be no liability of comparing a rate 
 in a non-registration state with one in a registration 
 state. But reliable comparisons could undoubtedly be 
 made in this manner of broad areas of the country. 
 
 7. Confinement of the reports to the most essential 
 features of direct sanitary use, avoiding detailed studies 
 of secondary character until, by the extension of the 
 registration area, more reliable statistics are available. 
 
 Cressy L. Wilbur. 
 
 Division of Vital Statistics, 
 
 Lansing, Michigan. 
 
Mortality Statistics of the United States Census. 
 
 I. INACCURACY. 
 
 In no department has the census failed more signally 
 than in the statistics of mortality. The radical diffi- 
 culty consists in the fact that mortality statistics relate 
 to a period of time, whereas the census is taken at a 
 point of time. The census methods are fitted only to 
 describe the state of the population on June ist, not to 
 record the changes in that population during the pre- 
 vious year. Births, deaths and marriages can properly 
 be counted only when they occur, that is, through 
 continuous registration. In the census they are counted 
 by enumeration, that is, by inquiry of the census taker 
 from house to house. 
 
 The earliest census in which mortality returns are 
 given is the seventh (1850). The results are the sub- 
 ject of spicy comment in the census volume itself,' 
 " Upon the subject of the Deaths no one can be deceived 
 by the figures of the Census, since any attempt to reason 
 from them would demonstrate a degree of vitality and 
 healthfulness in the United States unparalleled in the 
 annals of mankind, would overthrow the best established 
 principles of statisticians, and, in coming down to details 
 as well as in the aggregates, contradict all science and 
 experience." The writer was too sanguine, however, 
 as to the harmlessness of such inaccurate statistics. 
 Experience shows that the census death rates are taken 
 in earnest by hosts of guileless students. Indeed, much 
 worse figures than those of the census of 1850 have been 
 accepted without question. The death rate for whites 
 
 ' Seventh Census, xl. 
 
122 American Economic Association. 
 
 was given in 1850 as 13.6 per thousand ; for slaves, 16.6. 
 But the Montlily Bulletin of the Iowa state board of 
 health for June, 1890, presents in perfect seriousness 
 the following death rates: in 1880, 16 per 1,000; in 
 1883, ■^.'] \ in 1885,4.5; in 1890, 4.0. The death rate 
 for Dubuque is given as 9.3, for Des Moines, 0.8, and 
 for Council Bluffs, 0.06. These figures are commented 
 upon as follows : " It was not till 1883 that the work 
 of the state board of health began to be realized. The 
 saving of lives, therefore, through the sanitary and pro- 
 tective measures of the state board, is a record to be 
 proud of," ^ the fact being, of course, that the worthless- 
 ness of its statistics is a record to be ashamed of. Inac- 
 curate statistics, unless so labeled, are far worse than 
 none at all. The label should l:e repeated wherever the 
 figures occur. The tables of 1850, though admittedly 
 incorrect, were thought by Mr. Kennedy to be of value 
 " Should a more critical examination, which time will 
 enable us to exercise, prove the returns of the number of 
 deaths too small, such a result will not affect their value 
 for the purposes of comparison of one portion of the 
 country with another." ^ This optimistic remark is made 
 in face of the fact that the figures show one death to 
 every fifty-one living in Massachusetts, and only one to 
 one hundred in neighboring Vermont ! 
 
 In every census report the reader is warned against 
 accepting the figures which follow, but the ordinary 
 user of the census volumes will never think of hunting 
 several hundred pages back of a figure to see if it is true 
 or false. Thus, in one place in the Tenth Census,' 
 the death rate for the United States is printed 15.09, 
 
 ^Atu. Stat. Assn. Publications, 2:152 (1890). 
 
 ^Seventh Census. Report of Supt. for Dec. i, 1852, and Dec. i, 
 1851, P- 137- 
 ' Tenth Census, 11:3. 
 
Mortality Statistics of the United States Census. 123 
 
 although many pages back' this figure had been shown 
 to be worthless and 18 is conjectured as the true rate. 
 Why should false figures be given at all ? The ordinary 
 reader is certainly excusable if he expects a book of 
 figures to be fact, not fiction. With successive cen- 
 suses the returns have not improved, but rather degen- 
 erated. The official death rate for the United States in 
 1850 was 14 per 1,000, and in 1890 also 14. But the 
 rate in 1890 was kept up by certain extraneous aids. In- 
 stead of trusting solely to enumeration, as in 1850, the 
 censuses of 1880 and 1890 had recourse to the registra- 
 tion records of certain states and cities. Without these 
 records, z. e., within the non-registration area, the official 
 death rate in 1890 was 11 instead of 14. Even another 
 deduction must be made before we can compare this 
 with the accuracy of the enumerators' work in 1850. In 
 1890, 40,000 deaths were added to the enumerators' record 
 from the supplementary returns of physicians.^ With- 
 out these deaths the official death rate would have been 
 only 10. The character of the record for each census 
 since vital statistics were first gathered is exhibited in 
 the following table : 
 
 official In Ihe Non- In ditto, but 
 
 Death Rate Registra- excluding Physi- 
 
 in U. S. tion Area. clans' Returns. 
 
 1850 13.9 13.9 13.9 
 
 i860 12.5 12.5 12.5 
 
 1870 12.8 12.8 12.8 
 
 1880 15. 1 13.4 12.0 
 
 1890 14.0 10.9 9.9 
 
 ' Idem.., xix. 
 
 ^ This plan of soliciting corrections from physicians originated in the 
 tenth census. Its extent, in both censuses, is indicated by the follow- 
 ing table : 
 
 1880 1890 
 
 Letters sent 70,000 75, 000 
 
 Replies received 26,000 13,000 
 
 Deaths added 6i,ooo 40,000 
 
124 American Economic Association. 
 
 From the last column we see the steady deterioration 
 in the accuracy of the enumerators' work, at least as 
 applied to mortality statistics. Even the inclusion of 
 the supplementary returns from physicians (middle col- 
 umn) did not keep up the last two censuses to the 
 standard of 1850, while the substitution of registration 
 for enumeration in a limited area barely brought them 
 above that standard. 
 
 Of course it must not be forgotten that a death rate is 
 the ratio between two numbers, the deaths and the 
 population. An inaccuracy in the population would 
 affect the death rate as truly as an inaccuracy in the 
 number of deaths. The reason why the enumerated 
 death rate in 1870 (3rd column) appears to better ad- 
 vantage than that of 1880 is, perhaps, that the count of 
 population was worse in the former year, not that the 
 count of deaths was better. 
 
 Another hindrance exists to making our American 
 statistics comparable with European. The population 
 number used as divisor ought to be, and in Europe is, a 
 mean of the population through the year during which 
 the deaths occur. The population at the middle of the 
 year is usually taken. In the United States, however, 
 that at the end of the year is taken. This population 
 is too large and, in consequence, the resulting death rate 
 is too small. The deficiency from this source amounts 
 to from I to 2 per cent. 
 
 The above figures show the utter hopelessness of arriv- 
 ing at the general death rate in the United States by a 
 method in which enumeration forms a part. Such a 
 method has been discredited in other countries. The 
 census of 1851 for Ireland attempted to give the 
 
Mortality Statistics of the United States Census. 125 
 
 death rate for the preceding decennium by enumerators' 
 inquiry, with the following result ■} 
 
 1842 8.5 1847 34.8 
 
 1843 9.0 1848 29.7 
 
 1844 9.8 1849 35.1 
 
 1845 II. 6 1850 24.5 
 
 1846 16.8 1851 (3mos.) 7.0 
 
 As this table shows, the more remote the time, the 
 more defective the record. Kvery event, even a death, 
 is forgotten. Deaths of infants and females especially 
 are overlooked after a certain time. Besides this, many 
 families, especially' those consisting of but one or two 
 persons entirely disappear (either by death or emigra- 
 tion) leaving no one to tell the tale. 
 
 The same gradation is seen in our census. The deaths 
 reported are less and less, the earlier in the year they 
 come.^ 
 
 If any further evidence of the dismal inaccuracy of 
 the census figures for deaths were needed, it is to be 
 found in a comparison of the results of registra- 
 tion and enumeration. In i860 the enumerators found 
 21,300 deaths in Massachusetts ; the registration showed 
 24,100.^ The deficiency of enumeration compared with 
 registration is here 12 per cent and the registration was 
 doubtless itself defective. In 1870, Mr. E. B. Elliott, 
 the government actuary, in computing his life tables, 
 assumed from the registration of Massachusetts and 
 England that the death rates were deficient in the cen- 
 sus returns by 41 per cent* In 1880, the enumerators' 
 returns for Massachusetts (exclusive of Boston) were 27 
 per cent, short ; for New Jersey 37 per cent. Even 
 
 ^U. S. Eighth Census, Mortality and Miscellaneous Statistics, xxiv. 
 
 ^ Tenth Census II : xix. 
 
 ' Eighth Census, Mortality and Miscellaneous Statistics, 213. 
 
 * Ninth Census, Vital Statistics, x. 
 
126 American Economic Association. 
 
 after the enumerators' returns were supplemented by 
 those from physicians, deficiencies still remained of 13 
 per cent and 20 per cent respectively.' A deficiency of 
 30 per cent as a maximum was allowed for the whole 
 country. The final conclusion was that " It seems safe 
 to assume that the death rate was not less than 17 nor 
 more than 19 per 1,000 of living population."" Conse- 
 quently the general rate was assumed as about 18. 
 Comparing the registration area with the remainder of 
 the country (wliere enumerators' and physicians' returns 
 were employed) we find for the last two censuses •? 
 
 Registration area 
 
 Non-registration area 
 
 I8S0 
 
 22.2 
 
 1890 
 20.8 
 
 13-4 
 
 10.9 
 
 We see here that registration gathers nearly twice as 
 many deaths as the other method. It is only fair to 
 add, however, that cities made up a larger proportion 
 of the registration than the non-registration area, espec- 
 ially in 1880, and it is well known that urban mortality 
 is high. But the death rate in the rural part alone of 
 the registration states in 1890 was given as 15.7, and 
 this is too small.^ Infants' deaths especially escape 
 enumeration (We shall see later that to a considerable 
 degree they even escape registration). For 1890 the 
 deaths under one year per 1,000 infants living under one 
 year were reported as follows : '" 
 
 Registration area 260 
 
 Non-registration area 76 
 
 In the eleventh census the death rates for separate states 
 were not computed because misleading. In the twelfth 
 
 ' Tenth Census, II : xix. 
 
 ■"Ibid. 
 
 'Eleventh Census, Mortality and Vital Statistics, 1 : 11. These fig- 
 ures differ from those given in Compendium, 2 : 4. [For at least a 
 partial explanation see above, p. 112, f. — W. F. V/. ' 
 
 ''Eleventh Census, Vital Statistics, I : 11. 
 
 ^Eleventh Census, Vital Statistics, I : 22. 
 
Mortality Statistics of the United States Census. 127 
 
 census we hope no enumeration of deaths whatever will 
 be attempted. Each census apologizes for inserting re- 
 turns admittedly 20 per cent to 50 per cent short, on 
 the ground that the}- are of use for the study of diseases 
 which caused death, etc.; in particular for determining the 
 comparative number of different diseases per 1,000 deaths 
 from all causes. When this plea was first made (1850), 
 there were no registration records, and the application 
 of the death returns to such comparisons was probably a 
 true utilization of an otherwise waste product. But in 
 the eleventh census even this excuse for enumeration 
 was of doubtful validity. Much better results were ob- 
 tainable from registration methods. It is true that de- 
 fective returns would give correctly the relative number 
 of deaths from different diseases, if the percentage of 
 deficiencies for each disease were uniform. But this is 
 not the case. Each disease varies in frequency with 
 the time of life. Croup predominates in childhood, 
 cancer in advanced life, the diseases of child-birth be- 
 tween twenty and forty. Since the deficiencies of death 
 returns vary with age, the resulting comparisons for 
 diseases must necessarily be inaccurate. ^Moreover, as 
 stated in the last census, " Such rates [the relative num- 
 ber of different diseases per 1000 deaths from all causes], 
 as is well known to statisticians, have little positive 
 value as compared with the ratio of deaths to popula- 
 tion.'" An epidemic of one disease causes the numbers 
 of all other diseases per 1000 deaths to decrease, with- 
 out any actual decrease of their frequency. 
 
 It must not, of course, be assumed that registration, 
 
 in and of itself, is necessarily and always accurate. 
 
 Much depends on the character of the registration laws, 
 
 still more on the penalties for their violation, and most 
 
 ' Eleventh Census, Vital Statistics, I : i . 
 
128 American Economic Association. 
 
 of all on the character of the officials who administer 
 them. Through the kindness of various persons, chiefly 
 secretaries of boards of health, the following rough esti- 
 mates have been secured of the possible deficiencies in 
 the death-returns of the registration states at the present 
 time. 
 
 Correct within 
 
 Maine 3 per cent 
 
 New Hampshire i 
 
 Vermont 3 
 
 Massachusetts i 
 
 Rhode Island i 
 
 Connecticut i 
 
 New York state' 5 
 
 New York city i 
 
 New Jersey i 
 
 Delaware 10 
 
 District of Columbia i 
 
 Michigan 5 
 
 A few of those credited with a one per cent accuracy 
 are probably deserving of a still closer estimate. For 
 the registration states as a whole, it is probably safe to 
 say that the deaths are reported correctly within two per 
 cent or less.^ The death rate., involving as it does the 
 number of population, is probably correct within two or 
 three per cent for the census year and within two to six 
 per cent for intercensal years. The Census Office did not 
 include within its " registration states " all states profess- 
 ing that name. Alabama claimed to have complete regis- 
 tration in 1890, but the registration death rate was only 
 13.8, as against a mere enumeration rate of 14.2 in 1880 !' 
 
 ' Exclusive of New York city, Brooklyn, Yonkers, Albany and 
 Buffalo. 
 
 ^ Similar estimates were secured for births and marriages. Birth re- 
 turns are supposed to be deficient by i per cent in Rhode Island, 2 per 
 cent in Vermont and Massachusetts, 3 per cent in Maine, and 5 to 
 25 per cent in the other states. Marriages range from i to 30 per cent. 
 
 ^ See W. A. King, Vital Statistics of the Census. In Am. Stat. Assn. 
 Publications, 5 : 214 (1897). 
 
Mortality Statistics of the United States Census. 129 
 
 In one city in New York the death rate appeared as 13 
 per 1000. But on inquiry by ^Ir. Willcox it was found 
 that a quarter or a third of the deaths escaped record, 
 because of the failure to require burial permits before 
 interment' In a population sparser than forty to the 
 square mile, complete registration is regarded as out of 
 the question.^ In any community the first years of 
 registration do not give trustworthy results. Massachu- 
 setts has had registration since 1842, but the interesting 
 " Vital Statistics of Massachusetts, i856-q5," begins 
 with 1856 because the earlier records were thought to 
 be of doubtful value. For the forty years, 1856—95, the 
 records are regarded as " approximately correct.'" Ac- 
 curacy is everywhere a matter of growth. In England 
 Farr estimated the probable deficiency in the registra- 
 tion of births for 1861-70 as one-sixth of one per cent, 
 but for the period 1841-50 as three times as much.* 
 The infant death rate is unreliable even under the most 
 perfect system of registration. This is due to deficiency 
 in the number of infants recorded in the population 
 quite as truly as to deficiency in the number of deaths 
 recorded. The deficiency in enumerated living infants 
 is, in turn, partly due to the fact that infants 9 to 12 
 mouths old are returned as ''one year old." This is 
 true in all countries.'^ 
 
 One method of measuring such inaccuracy can be 
 briefly described as follows : Take any particular year 
 and make abstraction of migration ; then the number 
 born in that year, less those born and dying in it, is the 
 
 ^ Idem., 5 : 202. 
 
 ^See C. Iv. Wilbur, Idem., igr. 
 
 'Vital Statistics of Massachusetts, 1856-95, 714. In ilass. State 
 Board of Health Reports, 1896. 
 * Farr, Vital Statistics, 523. 
 ^Eleventh Census, Vital Statistics, I : 21. 
 
130 American Economic Association. 
 
 number under one year old living at the end of the year. 
 In Massachusetts, however, while the number of infants 
 under one }ear old, thus computed, was found in 1890 
 to be 53,000, the number actually enumerated in the 
 census was only 43,000 !' x\dding to the 53,000 a sup- 
 posed correction of 3 per cent, for deficiencies in the 
 registration of births, we find the discrepancy still 
 greater, or 26 per cent. Similar calculations in 1880 
 gave a discrepancy of only 5 per cent. Taking an in- 
 terval of five years, in place of one year, we find in 1890 
 a deficiency of 14 per cent. ; in 1880, of 3 per cent. 
 These figures show the lamentable inaccuracy of the 
 eleventh census, as well as the fact that even the tenth 
 left much to be desired. This is seen by comparing the 
 Bnglish deficiencies with those for America in 1880. 
 In any population (especially in an increasing one, as in 
 the United States) the numbers living between the ages 
 o-i should exceed those 1-3 ; those 1-2 should exceed 
 those 2-3 ; etc. But enumerators' statistics always 
 show the opposite. Hence we have a rough measure of 
 deficiency by subtracting the numbers returned as 0—1 
 from those returned as 1-3 ; those 1-2 from those 2—3 ; 
 etc., and expressing the differences as percentages of the 
 smaller numbers. The results are as follows ■? 
 
 Deficiencies (per cent). 
 U. S. Eng. and Wales 
 Age o-i compared with 1-2 13 9 
 
 " 1-2 " " 2-3 13 3 
 
 " 2-3 " " 3-4 3 2 
 
 " 3-4 " " 4-5 1-4 0.7 
 
 Corresponding discrepancies exist for age divisions by 
 months, especially in the eleventh census. The number 
 returned as under one month was less than a seventh of 
 
 ' Eleventh Census, Vital Statistics, I : 490. 
 ^ Tenth Census, 12 : clvi. 
 
Mortality Statistics of the United States Census. 131 
 
 those returned as from one to two months old.' The 
 deficiencies vary for different sections and classes. Thus, 
 for age 1-2 as compared with 2-3 the deficiencies were : 
 whites, 13 per cent; colored, 18 per cent; native 
 whites, 131^ per cent; foreign born, 35 per cent. For 
 New York it was 16 per cent ; L,ouisiana, 30 per cent ; 
 New Mexico, 46 per cent.' That is, enumeration of 
 population encounters the worst obstacles among negroes 
 and foreign born and in the sparsely settled west. 
 Although the tenth census points out inaccuracies in 
 infant mortality, it does not hesitate to make inter- 
 national comparisons. In the ninth census the govern- 
 ment actuary, Mr. E. B. Elliott, gives a formula for cor- 
 recting the irregularities in the returns for infants.^ 
 
 II. LIMIT OF ACCURACY. 
 
 We must not make the mistake of classifying statis- 
 tics into accurate and valuable, on the one hand, and 
 inaccurate and valueless on the other. No measure- 
 ments are truly accurate. The important thing is to 
 know the degree of inaccuracy, or at least the direction 
 of inaccuracy. To be sure that a figure is too high or 
 too low is sometimes enough to make it of value. It 
 becomes an upper or lower limit. If the negro death 
 rate is known to be sadly deficient while the white death 
 rate is nearly correct, the former will still be useful if, 
 as given, it is greater than the latter ; for then we are 
 doubly sure that the true negro mortality exceeds the 
 white. Even the early Greek computation that the sun 
 was at least 19 times as far away as the moon was a real 
 addition to knowledge, though the true number is about 
 400. 
 
 'Eleventh Census, Compendium, 3 : 198. 
 
 ^Tentt Census, 12 : clvi. 
 
 'Ninth Census. Vital Statistics, i : 5i7,ff- 
 
132 American Economic Association. 
 
 When both an upper and a lower limit can be given 
 we are much better off. The estimate that the general 
 death rate in the United States was, in 1880, between 17 
 and 19 per 1000/ placed it above that of Norway and 
 below that of Italy. In almost every case, some estimate 
 can be given of the amount and direction of possible 
 error. The bane of ordinary " Statistics " is the omis- 
 sion of this estimate. Where the errors are large, they 
 should be given in footnotes accompanying the table. 
 Where they are less than 5 per cent, they can be suf- 
 ficientl}' indicated by printing only the significant figures 
 (and ciphers as needed). 
 
 The importance of stopping at the last significant 
 figure is not yet recognized among statisticians. The 
 very phrase is strange to most of them. Its meaning 
 will appear from a few examples. The official popula- 
 tion of the United States on June i, 1890, was 
 62,622,250. A very intelligent gentleman expressed 
 surprise when told that this figure was not correct to 
 the units place. If it were correct, it would be the 
 most accurate measurement ever accomplished. No 
 chemist's balances, no astronomer's calculations have 
 ever yet reached a precision of one part in sixty million. 
 The most accurate physical measurements are correct 
 only to one part in a hundred thousand to a million, 
 i. e., require only six significant figures, and this extreme 
 degree of accuracy is quite out of the question in statis- 
 tics. Not more than three significant figures could pos- 
 sibly be claimed for the population count (62,600,000) 
 and, probably, two are amply sufficient'^ (63,000,000). 
 Few statistics are reliable beyond two and few are use- 
 ful beyond three significant figures. We should prac- 
 
 ' Tenth Census, II : xix. 
 
 ^Cf. Am. Stat. Assn. Publications, 4 : 99 (1894-95). 
 
Mortality Statistics of the United States Census. 133 
 
 tically confine ourselves, therefore, to a choice between 
 two and three. Where the second figure is certain and the 
 third uncertain within only a few units (say three), three 
 places should be used ; in case of greater uncertainty, two. 
 If the uncertainty amounts to say 5 per cent or more, 
 the method of a separate upper and lower limit should 
 be employed. 
 
 Few people realize the need of these rules in statistics, 
 the extent to which useless figures are tacked on, and 
 the false appearance of precision given to the most 
 hypothetical calculations. The gold in the United 
 States on July i, 1896, was officially estimated at 
 $599,597,964. This result was found by guessing at the 
 gold in 1873 as twenty millions and applying the subse- 
 quent reported imports, exports, recoinage and consump- 
 tion. The final result is worthless beyond one significant 
 figure.^ Such official computations appear to be based 
 on the theory that a sum is as accurate as the most 
 accurate of its parts. The truth is that a sum cannot 
 be more accurate than the least accurate of its parts. 
 
 Another important principle is that to multiply or 
 divide a figure by a constant cannot improve its degree 
 of accuracy. A writer on the Spanish dollar^, translat- 
 ing from one unit to another, brings out of an original 
 four place figure the result that the Castilian mark con- 
 tained 230.0465 metric grams. As the coin in question 
 related to the period of the discovery of America, and as 
 even our modern mints can scarcely attain such a degree 
 of accuracy, the non-significant character of the last three 
 figures is apparent. 
 
 Index nnmbers are often expressed with four or five 
 digits when not more than two have meaning.^ 
 
 'Yale Re\-iew, 7 : 105 (1S98). 
 
 ^A.m. Hist. R., July, 1898, p. 607. 
 
 ^ Cf. A. L,. Bowley, Economic Journal, 5 : 374, (1895.) 
 
134 American Economic Association. 
 
 In the special field of mortality statistics, examples of 
 false accuracy abound. In an article on Vital Statistics 
 of an Apache Indian Community' we find a death rate 
 of 142.58. This is based on a population of 371 and on 
 53 deaths! The colored death rate in Rochester is 
 elaborately tabulated in the eleventh census as follows :^ 
 
 All ages 6.92 
 
 Under five 21.28 
 
 Five years and over 5.65 
 
 These figures are based on a colored population of 578 
 and on 4 deaths ! This fact is stated below the table, 
 but only in the reading matter and, apparently, because 
 the results are so peculiar. Of course such statistics 
 have no significant figures at all. They should be omit- 
 ted. The same is true, as already shown, of the general 
 death rate in the United States (15.09). 
 
 Intercensal rates are less accurate than those of the 
 census year, for the population must be guessed at 
 (" estimated ") on the basis of the previous rate of in- 
 crease. In England, in the census year 1891, the esti- 
 mated population was found to be 2% per cent, in ex- 
 cess.^ Such an error invalidates even the third signifi- 
 cant figure (whether of population or of death rate based 
 thereon). In the United States the probable errors in 
 such estimates are much greater. 
 
 Statisticians have juggled with death rates by assum- 
 ing a great increase of population. Thus in St. Paul, 
 
 ^Am. Stat. Assn. Publications, 3 : 427 (1893). 
 
 ^ Eleventh Census, Vital Statistics, 2 : 44. 
 
 ' Tlie English have it in their power to improve their estimates by 
 adopting a different method, viz., to add to the last census number the 
 intervening births and immigrants, and subtract the deaths and emi- 
 grants. By this method. Dr. I,ongstaff calculated the population in 
 1891 correctly to four significant figures. Unfortunately this method 
 can not be used in the United States. See Cannan, " Demographic 
 Statistics of the United Kingdom ; their want of Correlation and other 
 Defects.'' In Royal Statistical Society, Journat, 61 : 50 (1898). 
 
Mortality Statistics of the United States Ce7isus. 135 
 
 1896, by estimating the population as 216,000, as against 
 155,000 in 1894, a death rate of 6.7 was presented as 
 against 10. i in 1894.' 
 
 III. DEATH RATES. 
 
 Though the desired statements as to accuracy are 
 lacking, there can be no doubt that, in general, the 
 registration portions of the census volumes on vital 
 statistics are of much value. The last two censuses 
 are the only ones which have made any considerable 
 use of state and municipal records. Indeed it is only in 
 recent years that these records have been available in 
 sufficient quantity and quality. In the tenth census 
 two volumes were devoted to vital statistics ; in the 
 eleventh, four, (of about iioo pages each). Vol. I 
 treats of general analysis and rate tables, vol. II of the 
 vital statistics of cities of 100,000 and upward, and 
 vols. Ill and IV of the detailed statistics of deaths by 
 locality, etc., the raw material, as it were, of the 
 previous volumes. Besides these there are three special 
 volumes on the cities of Xew York and Brooklyn, Bos- 
 ton and Philadelphia, and Washington and Baltimore, 
 which are, however, practically included in one of the 
 above four. They cover about 1000 pages in all. A 
 large portion of these seven volumes is devoted 
 to registration matter, and this is not simply transcribed 
 from the state and municipal reports. It often happened 
 that many items returned on the original cards were 
 not entered in the printed or even manuscript reports 
 of the separate states or cities. In such cases the 
 census directed a thorough examination of the original 
 cards. Thus, the census report, though derived from 
 
 'Am. Stat. .\ssn. Publications, 5 : 362 (1897). 
 
136 American Ecojiotnic Association. 
 
 anterior state and municipal sources, contains much 
 which is not to be found there or elsewhere. 
 
 In the tenth census the registration states were 
 Massachusetts, Nev»f Jersey and the District of Colum- 
 bia. The " registration area " consisted of these states 
 and 19 cities in other states. In the eleventh census 
 the " registration area " consisted of the registration 
 states, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode 
 Island, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, 
 and the District of Columbia, and of 83 cities in the 
 non-registration states with " fairly satisfactory systems 
 of registration." The total number of cities included 
 was 271, of which 28 had a population of 100,000 or 
 more, viz. : New York, Chicago, Philadelphia, Brook- 
 lyn, St. Louis, Boston, Baltimore, San Francisco, Cin- 
 cinnati, Cleveland, Buifalo, New Orleans, Pittsburgh, 
 Washington, Detroit, Milwaukee, Newark, Minneapolis, 
 Jersey city, Douisville, Omaha, Rochester, St. Paul, 
 Kansas city (Missouri), Providence, Denver, Indianapo- 
 lis, Allegheny. In the twelfth census the number of 
 registration states will be increased by Maine and Mich- 
 igan and possibly others, the most likely being : Mary- 
 land, Indiana, Iowa, and Pennsylvania. 
 
 The death rates (including still births) in the registra- 
 tion states were as follows ■} 
 
 Vermont 16.3 
 
 Delaware 18.4 
 
 New Hampshire 18.8 
 
 Connecticut 19.4 
 
 Massachusetts 20.2 
 
 New York 20.5 
 
 New Jersey 21.0 
 
 Rhode Island 21.9 
 
 District of Columbia 25.9 
 
 Total Registration States 20.4 
 
 Total Registration Area 20.8 
 
 1 Eleventh Census, Vital Statistics, I : 10. 
 
Mortality Statistics of the United States Census. 137 
 
 The registration area contained a population of 
 21,000,000. 
 
 In the registration states, the urban death rate was given 
 as 23.5 (supposed to be nearly accurate) and the rural 
 15.7 (supposed to be too low, the actual rate being, say, 
 16)/ The rate varies directly with the size of the city 
 as the following table shows r 
 
 cities. Males. Feniale-s. 
 
 Under 10,000 19.2 16.9 
 
 10,000- 15,000 19.3 17.2 
 
 15,000- 25,000 21.2 18,7 
 
 25,000-50,000 23.2 20.4 
 
 50,000-100,000 23.7 20.9 
 
 100,000 and over 25.1 21.5 
 
 Since size corresponds usually to density, this table 
 agrees with the observations of Farr in England.^ 
 
 Number of Persons per 
 
 Districts. square mile. Death rate. 
 
 54 170 15 to 17 
 
 349 200 18 to 20 
 
 142 450 21 to 23 
 
 56__ 2,200 24 to 26 
 
 16 6,900 271030 
 
 I 12,000 32 
 
 I 66,000 37 
 
 The statistics for cities* over 100,000 show, in 1890, an 
 average mortality (exclusive of still births) of 21.6. The 
 highest record is for Newark (27. 4), with New York second 
 (26.5), followed by Jersey city and Brooklyn. The 
 lowest is Omaha (9.4), for which the record is probably 
 defective. The death rates iu the 28 largest cities in 
 United States, England and Germany, in 1890 were ■? 
 
 United States 21.6 
 
 England 21.4 
 
 Germany 23.1 
 
 'Eleventh Census, Vital Statistics, I : 11. 
 = Eleventh Census, Vital Statistics, I : 220. 
 ^Farr, Vital Statistics, 126. 
 
 * Eleventh Census, \'ital Statistics, II : 2. 
 
 * Ibid. 
 
138 Afnerican Ecoiioinic Association. 
 
 Remembering that the American rate is too small (owing 
 to the use of the population at the end of the year in- 
 stead of the middle, and to some deficiency in the 
 record), it may fairly be said that the death rate for large 
 cities is the same in this country as in England and 
 Central Europe. The death rate of Paris in 1890 was 
 24.5, and of Vienna, 24.6. In Russia and Italy larger rates 
 are found : St. Petersburg, 28.4 ; Rome, 33.4 ; Moscow, 
 40.3. The rate for Plavana is said to be from 70 to 140 ! 
 The true rate for the United States as a whole is sup- 
 posed to be about 18. But this appears to be a mere repe- 
 tition of the surmise of 1880.' It is not likely that the 
 rate in 1890 should be the same as in 1880. In every 
 country in Europe, except Norway, the rate in 1890 was 
 less than in 1880. On the other hand, in the registration 
 states common to the two censuses we find an increase •? 
 
 1880. 
 i8qo_ 
 
 Massachusetts. 
 
 tfal 
 
 es. 
 
 Females. 
 
 19. 
 
 I 
 
 18.1 
 
 20. 
 
 9 
 
 19.4 
 
 New 
 
 Jersey. 
 
 Males. 
 
 Females. 
 
 17.0 
 
 15-7 
 
 22.3 
 
 19.7 
 
 This increase is probably due to an increasing proportion 
 
 of urban population (and in part to greater accuracy in 
 
 registration). 
 
 As is seen above, the female death rate is less than the 
 
 male. This was found in 1890 to be the case in every 
 
 registration state except Vermont. For the registration 
 
 states taken together, the results are: males, 21.5; 
 
 females, 19.3. The excess of male mortality is well 
 
 known in Europe. The higher death rate for males 
 
 compensates for the higher birth rate. In a stationary 
 
 population, according to the English laws of mortality 
 
 and natality, the sexes would be evenly distributed. 
 
 There would be 512 male births for every 488 female 
 
 'Eleventh Census, Vital Statistics, I : 11. 
 ^ Eleventh Census, Vital Statistics, I : 13. 
 
Mortality Statistics of the United States Census. 139 
 
 and these would sustain a population of 20,430 males 
 and 20,430 females.' 
 
 The poor have a much heavier death rate than the 
 rich. Chateauneuf, comparing the rich with the poor 
 quarters of Paris, found the following mortality :^ 
 
 Age. Rich. Poor. 
 
 30-35 0.85 1.4 
 
 4C^45 0.85 1.9 
 
 50-55 1.8 2.6 
 
 70-75 6.8 14.1 
 
 Similar contrasts result from the returns of indus- 
 trial insurance (exclusiveh' among the poor) compared 
 with ordinary insurance. The following table of mortal- 
 ity is given by the Vice-President of the Metropolitan 
 Life Insurance Com pan)' (industrial) ■? 
 
 Ordinary Insurance. Industrial. 
 
 Age. (:English Experience.) (Metropolitan.) 
 
 20 7.3 10.5 
 
 25 7-8 I4-I 
 
 35 9.3 17.2 
 
 55 21.7 35.2 
 
 70 64.9 91.0 
 
 Like conclusions are reached by inspecting the death 
 rate chart for .separate wards of New York.'' That the 
 upper classes live longer than the average is also pointed 
 out in th.& Journal of the Royal Statistical Society!' 
 
 The mortality among the colored population is very 
 heavy. The eleventh census showed for the registra- 
 tion area the following results for different ages :" 
 
 Under 5. 5-15 15-45 45-65 65 and over 
 
 White 64 5.4 9.3 22 78 
 
 Colored 124 10.4 17.0 33 106 
 
 1 Farr, Vital Statistics, 485. 
 "A. Ouetelet, Physique sociale, I : 361. 
 ^The Charities Review, March, 189S, p. 33. 
 
 ♦Eleventh Census, Vital Statistics of New York and Brooklyn, 164, 
 250. 
 
 5 50 : 649. 
 
 * Eleventh Census, Vital Statistics, I : 19. 
 
140 American Economic Association. 
 
 Ill ten southern cities the white death rate is 20.1 and 
 the colored, 32.6/ We must remember, however, that the 
 deficiency in the population returns is greater among 
 the colored than among the whites, especially in infancy. 
 Yet the general facts as to the relative mortality between 
 the two races in the United States cannot be doubted, 
 and are abundantly confirmed by Hoffman's monograph^ 
 and by the experience of Insurance Companies.' The 
 death rates by nativity in registration states in 1890 
 were as follows :* 
 
 Native -whites of native parents 17.0 
 
 Native whites of foreign parents 24.4 
 
 Foreign born whites 19.9 
 
 Colored ig.6 
 
 These figures, however, are not comparable owing to 
 differences in age distribution. 
 
 Mortality varies with age. It is greatest in infancy 
 and old age and least in childhood. In the registration 
 area we find the death rates per looo to be as follows :^ 
 
 Under i. Under 5. 5 to 15. 15 to 45. 45 to 65. 65 and over. 
 
 206 67 5.5 9.7 22 79 
 
 Infant mortality is the subject of special study. It 
 also presents special difficulties. Not only are the re- 
 turns of infant deaths deficient, but the returns of 
 infant population, on which death rates must be com- 
 puted, are also deficient. On account of such deficien- 
 cies, special modes of reckoning infant mortality have 
 been adopted. For instance, the deaths of infants under 
 one year old occurring during a year are compared, not 
 
 ^F. L. Hoffman, Race Traits and Tendencies of the American Ne- 
 gro, 39- 
 ''■Op cit., passim. 
 
 "Am. Stat. Assn., Publications., 3 : 350 (1893). 
 * Eleventh Census, Compendium, II : 4. 
 ^Eleventh Census, Vital Statistics, 1 : 15. 
 
Mortality Statistics of the United States Census. 141 
 
 with the population living under one year old, but with 
 the births registered during the year. 
 
 In the United States, however, this method is not re- 
 garded as accurate because of the inaccuracy in the 
 registration of births.' Another method, not of great 
 value, but adopted in the census, is to compare the 
 deaths of infants under one year old with the total 
 deaths.^ 
 
 Still births are often included in the birth and death 
 rates. They are sufficiently numerous to make a differ- 
 ence in the second significant figure. In reckoning 
 the infant death rate especially, still births make an 
 enormous difference. Thus, in the registration area for 
 1890 we find the number of deaths under one year per 
 1000 births is ■? 
 
 Including still births 221 
 
 Excluding still births 183 
 
 A very little consideration will shovr that still births 
 should not be included in births and deaths. They 
 represent antenatal deaths, and should be studied in 
 connection with antenatal population. Ideal vital sta- 
 tistics should begin with conception, not with birth. In 
 such statistics room would be found for miscarriages 
 and still births. Since, practically, such statistics are 
 out of the question, the proper mode of treating still 
 births is as a separate category. 
 
 lA^ "CORRECTED" DEATH RATES. 
 
 Few cautions are more necessarj- to the student of 
 vital statistics than to beware of the disturbances of age 
 distribution. The foreign born population of the 
 
 ^ Eleventh Census, Vital Statistics, II : 30. 
 ^ Eleventh Census, Altai Statistics, 1 : 22. 
 ■' Eleventh Census, A'ital Statistics, 1 : 21. 
 
142 American Economic Association. 
 
 United States have had to suffer unjustly in statistical 
 comparisons from . disregard of this caution. Their 
 criminality, for instance, appears high simply because 
 of the small number of children and old men, and the 
 large number living at the intervening or " criminal " 
 ages. Similarly the longevity of men of note (such as 
 Gladstone and Bismarck) is often interpreted to mean 
 that distinction and heavy responsibilities lengthen life. 
 But men of note are ipso facto old to start with, while 
 obscure persons are largely made up of the compara- 
 tively young. 
 
 Sometimes a rough correction for age distribution is 
 given by excluding certain ages from the comparisons 
 altogether. Thus, Thomas A. Welton, in treating of 
 " Local Death Rates in England and Wales, 1S81- 
 1890," attempts to show that " between the ages 5—45 
 and particularly between the ages 15-35, such an im- 
 pression is made upon death rates by migration and by 
 casual events that, for the purpose of measuring the 
 strength of the force operating for and against life, the 
 facts for those ages should be left out of account, and 
 attention should be concentrated on statistics as to ages 
 0-5 and 45 upwards.'" Similarly the birth rate is often 
 reckoned in relation to the female population of " child- 
 bearing age," i. e., 15-50,^ and the mortality among differ- 
 ent occupations compared by confining attention to ages 
 over fifteen. But such crude methods are often inadequate. 
 Thus, in 1890 the death rate among "professional" 
 men over fifteen was 15.7 and among the "manufactur- 
 ing" class 13.0, indicating, apparently, a greater vitality 
 
 ' Royal Statistical Society Journal, 60:33. Summarized in Am. 
 Stat. Assn. Publications, 5 : 363, (1897). 
 
 ^ E.g., Eleventh Census, Vital Statistics, II : 32. 
 
Mortality Statistics of the U^iited States Census. 143 
 
 among the latter. But a minuter comparison, for differ- 
 ent age groups, shows the opposite :' 
 
 15-25- 
 
 25-45- 
 
 45-65- 
 
 65 and over 
 
 5-0 
 
 8.5 
 
 19. 1 
 
 79 
 
 5-0 
 
 9.2 
 
 20,1 
 
 78 
 
 Professional 
 
 Manufacturing 
 
 Great masses of the mortality statistics in relation to oc- 
 cupation given in the census \'olunies are, therefore, of 
 no value. A still more striking example may be drawn 
 from the mortality of different conjugal conditions. In 
 1890, in 22 cities, the death rate among males over 15 
 was: single, 13.7; married, 19.4, — an apparent argu. 
 ment for the single state. But a little consideration 
 shows that the married are generally older than the single. 
 The misleading character of the preceding comiDarison 
 can be exposed by using only two age groups :- 
 
 T5-45- 45 and over. 
 
 Single II. 7 52 
 
 ilarried 11. 4 34 
 
 In the same wa}' it is found that though the frequency 
 of marriages is greater among spinsters than widows yet 
 for each age group taken separately, the opposite is true.^ 
 Even when the correction for age distribution does not 
 reverse the conclusion, it is important in affecting its 
 force. Thus, the average mortality among whites in 
 New York for six years was 26.7, and among colored, 28.8,* 
 which contrast is mxich less than usual {e. £-., for the 
 registration area, white, 20.2 ; colored, 32.4). The 
 reason for the small difference in the rates for the metro- 
 politan area is the presence of so many adult colored 
 waiters and servants, and the comparative absence of 
 infants. Again, the urban death rate, though usually 
 greater than the rural, would be still greater if the two 
 
 ' Eleventh Census, Vital Statistics, I : 65. 
 ^Eleventh Census, Vital Statistics, II : 52-54. 
 *R. Mayo-Smith, Statistics and Sociology, 109, f. 
 * Eleventh Census, Vital Statistics, I : 30. 
 
144 Ainerican Economic Association. 
 
 populations were similarly constituted as to age. Thus, 
 for England :' 
 
 Death Rate. 
 Uncorrected. Corrected. 
 City 24 24 
 
 Country 19 i5 
 
 Where the direction of the error arising out of unlike 
 age distributions is subject to conjecture, the compari- 
 son is rendered worthless. This is true of the follow- 
 ing comparisons, giving the death rates (in the rural 
 parts of the registration states) according to birthplace 
 of mother.^ 
 
 Mother born in Death rate. 
 
 United States 11. 7 
 
 England and Wales 14.4 
 
 Germany 12.9 
 
 Italy 10.2 
 
 A " corrected " or " refined " death rate is based on an 
 assumed standard age distribution. It is the death rate 
 which would exist in the given population if its age dis- 
 tribution conformed to that standard. Suppose, for in- 
 stance, we wish to compare the mortality of French and 
 English children. An actual population group of 
 10,000 of each is found. Let us assume that in the 
 English group 400 die per annum and in the French 
 only 235. The English crude death rate is therefore 
 40 per 1000 and the French 23.5. But the two groups 
 are very differently constituted, viz. : 
 
 English. French. 
 
 Ages. Population. Deaths. Population. Deaths. 
 
 O to 5 5000 350 1000 100 
 
 5 to 10 5000 50 9000 135 
 
 10,000 400 10,000 235 
 
 Whereas the English children are equally divided be- 
 
 ' Mayo-Smith, Statistics and Sociology, 151, f. 
 ^ Eleventh Census, Vital Statistics, I : 36. 
 
Mortality Statistics of the United States Census. 145 
 
 tween the two age groups, the French have nine times 
 as many in the upper age group as in the lower. Con- 
 sequently among the English the younger deaths pre- 
 dominate ; among the French the older. F'or the age 
 group 0—5 the English death rate is 350 per 5000, or 70 
 per 1000 ; for the French the corresponding rate is 100 
 per 1000. For the ages 5-10 the English rate is 50 per 
 5000, or 10 per 1000; the French, 135 per 9000, or 15 
 per 1000. That is, in both cases, the French rates are 
 her^i viz : 
 
 Death Rates per looo. 
 A^es. English. Freuch. 
 
 o to 5 70 icra 
 
 5 to 10 10 15 
 
 The crude rates for the two nationalities were thus mis- 
 leading. We are to seek a refined rate on the basis of 
 similar age distribution. L,et us, for instance, take the 
 English age distribution as standard and find out what 
 the French death rate would be with a similar distribu- 
 tion (half in each age class) : 
 
 Ages, 
 oto 5. 
 5 to IO_ 
 
 Assumed Age 
 
 Known 
 
 
 Distribution. 
 
 Death Rates. 
 
 Deaths. 
 
 5000 X 
 
 ICO per 1000 
 
 = 500 
 
 5000 X 
 
 15 per 1000 
 
 = 75 
 
 10,000 575 
 
 There would have been 500 deaths in the first class and 
 75 in the second. The total is 575 for an assumed pop- 
 ulation of 10,000, or 57.5 per 1000. This is the refined 
 French death rate made comparable with the 40 per 
 1000 for the English, and is, as it obviously ought to be, 
 the greater. We may, equally well, take the French age 
 distribution as standard and assimilate the English to it. 
 
146 American Economic Association. 
 
 This would give for England a refined death rate of 16 
 per 1000 to be compared with the French 23.5 per 1000 ; 
 or, we may assimilate both populations to some third 
 standard. Let us assume, as such a standard, two age 
 classes in the ratio of 2 to 3, or 4000 to 6000 : 
 
 English 
 Standard 
 Ages. Distribution. 
 
 O to 5 4000 X 
 
 5 to 10 6000 X 
 
 10,000 
 
 French 
 Standard 
 Ages. Distribution. 
 
 O to 5 4000 X 
 
 5 to 10 6000 X 
 
 Known 
 
 
 Death Rate. 
 
 Death; 
 
 70 per 1000 : 
 
 = 280 
 
 10 per 1000 : 
 
 60 
 
 
 340 
 
 Known 
 
 
 Death Rate. 
 
 Death: 
 
 100 per 1000 : 
 
 = 400 
 
 15 per 1000 : 
 
 90 
 
 10,000 490 
 
 This gives an English rate of 34 per 1000, and a French 
 rate of 49 per 1000. 
 
 For purposes of international comparison it matters 
 little which standard is taken. In the first case (English 
 standard) the French death rate exceeds the English by 
 44 per cent., in the second (French standard) b}' 47 per 
 cent., and in the third (arbitrary standard) by 44 per 
 cent. In actual practice the standard chosen for age 
 distribution is of even less consequence than in this 
 imaginary case. For the purpose of comparing the 
 mortality in the different nations of Europe, the age dis- 
 tribution of Sweden has been adopted as standard. The 
 average age constitution of Europe has also been taken. 
 The results of the two standards usually agree within 
 one-half of one per cent.' Dr. Josef von Korosi, of 
 
 'Am. Stat. Assn. Publications, 3 : 457 (1893). The age groups 
 should be so contrived as to distribute properly the ages ending in o 
 or 5. A great number of persons return their ages only in round 
 numbers. Compare above p. 57, f. 
 
Mortality Statistics of the United States Census. 147 
 
 Budapest, has emphasized, more than any other writer, 
 the importance of correcting the crude death rate. He 
 had, however, been anticipated by Dr. Ogle in England 
 and Dr. Koch in Germany (Hamburg), and still earlier 
 by Dr. Jarvis, of Dorchester, Mass. Ogle proposed 12 
 age groups, viz. : each year up to 5, 5 to 10, then each 
 ten years to 60, and lastly 60 and over. Korosi showed 
 that four age groups were enough, viz. : o— i, 1-20, 20- 
 50, 50 and over. The results of the two calculations 
 differ usually about one per cent. The International In- 
 stitute of Statistics, meeting at Berne in 1895, recom- 
 mended five age groups and the Swedish population as 
 the standard. Thus : 
 
 Swedish Population 
 Age Groups. in each loo. 
 
 O-I 2.6 
 
 1-20 39.8 
 
 20-40 27.0 
 
 40-60 19.2 
 
 60- ir.5 
 
 The census has made little use of refined death rates. 
 In the eleventh census the subject was referred to with 
 disfavor : " In the large cities of the United vStates a cor- 
 rection of gross death rates for peculiarities of race dis- 
 tribution of the population of each city would be much 
 more important than the above correction for age distri- 
 bution, but it seems hardly worth while to try to indicate 
 the relative healthfulness of different cities by rates for 
 the total population only, and the phrase ' corrected 
 rates ' must always be more or less misleading;'" 
 
 It is scarcely an argument against eliminating one 
 source of error, that another source is more important. 
 Nor is it certain that race distribution is more important 
 than age distribution. It may seetn so because, in our 
 cities, different races have different age distributions. 
 ' Eleventh Census, Vital Statistics, II : 30. 
 
148 American Economic Association. 
 
 The true view would seem to be that age, sex and race 
 distributions should all be considered. Different prob- 
 lems require different elements to be eliminated. A 
 death rate corrected for age distribution is only one of 
 many death rates of importance to the statistician. In 
 pressing the claims of a refined rate it is not pretended 
 that even crude rates have no value. For instance, to 
 estimate the rate of increase of a population the birth 
 rate is to be compared with the crude death rate. 
 
 The importance of a refined rate is especially great in 
 America, for the age distributions of our various popu- 
 lation groups are widely diverse. Thus, we find :' 
 
 Death Rate. 
 Gross. Corrected. 
 
 Denver 24.2 31.0 
 
 San Francisco 23.6 29.9 
 
 Omaha 10. o 14.7 
 
 The results of correction may, of course, be in either 
 direction. Thus, Chas. E. Burnap, writing on " Mortal- 
 ity in Twenty-Three Massachusetts Cities,"^ finds : 
 
 Death Rate. 
 
 Recorded. Corrected. 
 
 Boston 24.6 26.0 
 
 Worcester 19.4 19.4 
 
 Salem 20.6 19.8 
 
 V. AVERAGE LIFE-TIMES. 
 
 All the systems of weighting hitherto described, by 
 which a corrected death rate is obtained as an average of 
 
 1 Eleventh Census, Vital Statistics, II : 30. The correction is accord- 
 ing to the Berne recommendations. 
 
 ''Am. Stat. Assn. Publications, $ . 82 (1896). The method employed 
 by Burnap is a variation of the method described above. He first 
 compares, say, Boston \vith Massachusetts in general by taking the 
 Boston age distribution as standard. Next Worcester is compared 
 vpith Massachusetts by the Worcester standard, and Salem by the 
 Salem standard. Having thus effected comparisons between each 
 city and Massachusetts, these cities are compared with each other. 
 
Mortality Statistics of the United States Census. 149 
 
 the death rates at separate ages, are quite empirical and 
 arbitrary, But the rational student will crave a more 
 rational system. The theoretically true corrected death 
 rate is based on an age distribution, given in the nature 
 of things, not the Swedish, not the average of Europe, 
 but that of an ideal stationary population.' This true cor- 
 rected death rate has the important property that it is 
 the reciprocal of the average duration of life. Death 
 rates and length of life are thus opposite facets of the 
 same fact. Mortality measures vitality. 
 
 In England, statistics for a period of 35 years showed 
 an average crude death rate of 22.4 per 1000 ; the true 
 corrected rate was 24.5, z. e., ^5%.* This shows an 
 average life time of V^°^ or about 41 years. 
 
 The connection between death rate and life time is so 
 important that the following outline demonstration of 
 their relation is given : 
 
 Suppose, 
 
 lao persons born daily, and that 
 99 survive one day, 
 
 85 survive one year, 
 
 70 survive ten years, 
 
 50 survive forty years, 
 
 and so on, until all are dead. Such a table is called a 
 table of survivors, or a life table. 
 
 Suppose, for convenience, that each day's births (and 
 deaths too) occur at the beginning of that day. It is 
 evident that on any one day the population must consist, 
 and consist solely, of 
 
 ' Cf. Farr, Vital Statistics, 121. 
 ■'■ rbid., 124. 
 
150 American Economic Association. 
 
 the 100 persons just born, 
 
 the 99 persons survived from yesterday's 100 births, 
 
 the 85 persons survived from the 100 births one year ago to-day, 
 
 the 70 persons survived from the 100 births ten years ago to-day, 
 
 the 50 persons survived from the 100 births forty years ago to-day. 
 
 This is an age distribution table. Its necessary 
 numerical identity with the survivorship table is ap- 
 parent. In actual populations, however, the two tables 
 are different except, perhaps, in France, which has a 
 nearly stationary population. We suppose each table to 
 be completely filled out, down to successive days, and 
 not with gaps as above. Evidently the sum totals of 
 the two tables are equal. Suppose this total to be 
 15,000,000. The total of the age distribution table is 
 clearly the total population. This is, therefore, 15,000,- 
 000 and remains constant. Hence, the daily deaths must 
 equal the births (too). The death rate each day is 
 therefore ^^^-^^^. 
 
 Next, we observe that the sum total of the survivor- 
 ship table is the total number of da3's lived by the loo 
 persons born on any one date ; for they each enjoy 
 one day's life or loo days together. Then 99 are left, 
 who all live a second day or 99 days together, and so on, 
 making 15,000,000 days in all. The average life time 
 of the 100 persons is therefore i6_o_o^o^o. days. Thus the 
 reciprocal relation between average life time J-5_Yg<ytsj: 
 and true corrected death rate, isoWo Tg-; is apparent. 
 The relation remains intact if the life time is reduced 
 to years instead of days and the death rate to a yearly 
 instead of a daily rate ; for these changes merely intro- 
 duce 365 as divisor and multiplier. 
 
 To correct the death rate, then, in a community of 
 abnormal age constitution, we make it normal by sup- 
 
Mortality Statistics of the United States Census. 151 
 
 posing it to be fed by a constant number of births. 
 Ttie death rate which would exist if the population 
 were thus kept stationary is the true corrected death 
 rate. To obtain it in any community we need a table 
 of survivorship. 
 
 Since such death rate is interchangeable with the 
 mean duration of life, it will be convenient to pass to 
 the latter conception. 
 
 The mean duration of life, in most civilized countries, 
 is between 35 and 50 years (corresponding to a true cor- 
 rected death rate of between 25 and 20 per mille). Thus : 
 
 Norway (1856-65) 47 years, France (i877-8i)__ 41 years, 
 
 England (1881-90) 44 years, Belgium (1841-50) _ 37 years. 
 
 United States ( 1830-60) __ 42 years, Prussia ( Becker) __ 37 years. 
 
 The mean life time is on the increase. 
 
 England,! ( 1838-54) ___39.9 France,' (1856-65) 39 
 
 (i87i-So)__.4i.4 " (1877-81) (males),. 41 
 
 (i88i-9o)___43.7 
 
 lyife tables for Sweden show an increase of fifteen 
 years since the middle of the last century. The city 
 vitality especially has improved. The mean lifetime 
 in Stockholm, 1755-63, was only 16 3'ears. 
 
 In Massachusetts the death rate has remained station- 
 ary for four decades ■? 
 
 1856-65 19.4 1876-85 19.4 
 
 1866-75 19.6 1886-95 19-6 
 
 This, however, is due to an increase in urban population. 
 The death rate in both city and country has declined.* 
 
 'Vital Statistics of Massachusetts, 1856-95, 815. In Mass. State 
 Board of Health Reports, 1896. 
 
 'Levassseur, Tables of Mortality and Survivorship. In Royal Statis- 
 tical Society Journal, 50 : 547 (18S7). Translated from Journal de la 
 SocieU de Staiisiigue de Paris, March, 1887. 
 
 'Vital Statistics of Massachusetts, 1S56-95, 743. 
 
 ^ Idem., 748, f. The opinion that American vitality is declining ap- 
 pears to be based on a wrong method of estimating mean life time, 
 viz. , b)' taking the average age of the dying. Such methods seem to 
 
152 American Economic Association. 
 
 The gravitation of population towards cities tends 
 throughout the world towards increasing mortality, 
 while improved sanitation, and medical knowledge and 
 skill tend directly opposite. The magnitude of the 
 latter forces is, therefore, understated in any comparison 
 between old and new mortality which does not distin- 
 guish between city and country. 
 
 The steady improvement of vitality is also apparent 
 from the following condensed tables of survivorship for 
 the Netherlands, Sweden and France : ^ 
 
 
 Netherlands. 
 
 
 Age. 
 
 Baumhauer. 
 1S40-51. 
 
 Von Pesch, 
 1870-80. 
 
 
 
 1000 
 
 1000 
 
 10 
 
 644 
 
 654 
 
 60 
 
 310 
 
 357 
 
 That is, out of each 1000 persons born, 47 more now sur- 
 vive to be 60 years old, than 30 years ago. ^ 
 
 Age. 
 
 Wargentin. 
 i757-«3- 
 
 De Berg. 
 1861-70. 
 
 
 
 1000 
 
 lOOO 
 
 10 
 
 611 
 
 737 
 
 60 
 
 293 
 
 401 
 
 In Sweden, 108 more persons out of each 1000 now sur- 
 vive to 60, than a century ago. The infant mortal- 
 ity was reduced one-half in the same period.' 
 
 
 France. 
 
 
 i.ge. 
 
 St. Maur. 
 Before 1750. 
 
 Deraonferrard. 
 
 1817-32. 
 
 BertiUon. 
 1856-65. 
 
 
 
 1000 
 
 1000 
 
 ICXX3 
 
 10 
 60 
 
 484 
 l58 
 
 668 
 365 
 
 681 
 389 
 
 vitiate the conclusions of John Stockton-Hongh, Statistics relating 
 to the Births, Deaths, Marriages, in Philadelphia, 1861-72. Social 
 Science Assn. of Phila., 1874, p. i4,flE. For the fallacies of the 
 method, see Farr, Vital Statistics, 475, if. 
 
 'Levasseur, Royal Statistical Society, /oar»(r/, 50 : 558 (1887). 
 ^Levasseur, Ibid., 555. 
 ' Levasseur, Ibid., 553. 
 
Mortality Statistics of the United States Census. 153 
 
 Here, in about 75 years, 197 more persons were pre- 
 served to age 60 than previously. In the next 35 years 
 the saving was 24. The rate of improvement is thus de- 
 creasing. 
 
 The improvement is so marked that even crude death 
 rates are sufficiently exact to show it strongly. In lyon- 
 don, in the latter half of the 17th century, the death rate 
 was about 80 per 1000 and in the i8th century it was 
 about 50, while in the middle of the present century it 
 was 24.' 
 
 In the i8th century the death rate in Boston varied 
 (1725-74) between 33 and 43, averaging 37.- To-day it 
 is about 25. 
 
 The effect of improvements in medical science and 
 sanitation is well illustrated by the disappearance of 
 sudden jumps in the death rate throxigh epidemics. In 
 Ivondon, in the plague years 1593, 1625, 1636, 1665, the 
 death rates per 1000 were 240, 310, 130, 430.' 
 
 The introduction of a filter, in 1893, into the water 
 supply of L,awrence, Massachusetts, was followed by an 
 immediate reduction in the deaths from typhoid fever.* 
 
 Death Rate 
 Years. from Typhoid Fever. 
 
 1887 1.2 
 
 1888 1.2 
 
 1889 1.4 
 
 1890 1.3 
 
 189I 1.2 
 
 1892 I.I 
 
 1893 .87 
 
 1894 .50 
 
 1895 .31 
 
 1896 .19 
 
 ^Farr, Vital Statistics, 131. 
 
 ^ Bills of Mortality, 1810-49, City of Boston, Reprinted for Registry 
 Department, 1893. 
 'Farr, Vital Statistics, 131. 
 *Mass. State Board of Health Report, 1896, 568. 
 
154 American Economic Association. 
 
 The introduction of sewerage and house drainage was 
 followed in ten cities by a reduction of 69 per cent in 
 the deatli rate from typhoid fever.' 
 
 The general death rate in New York citj' in 1896, 
 when Colonel Waring had charge of the street cleaning, 
 was 21.5. The lowest annual rate in the preceding 
 decade was 22.8 and the average, 25.2." 
 
 It was found in Massachusetts that while infectious dis- 
 eases had grown less deadly between the period 1875—84 
 and 1885-94, local diseases had grown more so, leaving 
 the total mortality about the same.' 
 
 The life time in city is less than in country. Con- 
 trast e.g} 
 
 Surrey, males 44 Massachusetts and New Jersey 45 
 
 L,iverpool, males 25 New York city 33 
 
 Male life time is less than female.'"' 
 
 Male. ' Female. 
 
 England, (1876-80) 42 45 
 
 United States 41.0 42.9 
 
 New Jersey, 6 years 40.1 43.6 
 
 The mean life time is also called (rather infelicitously) 
 the expectation of life at birth. The expcctatidn of life 
 may be taken at other times than birth. It is then 
 called the mean after-life-time. Just as the mean life- 
 time is the reciprocal of the true corrected death rate, 
 so the mean after-life-time, for any particular age, is the 
 reciprocal of the true corrected death rate for that por- 
 tion of the population over that particular age. At suc- 
 cessive ages the mean after-life in England and America 
 for a half century ago is given in the following table : 
 
 'Forum, 26: 540 (1899). 
 
 ^ New York City Health Dep't. Report, 1896, p. 14. 
 ^ Vital Statistics of Massachusetts, 1856-95, 812. 
 * Farr, Vital Statistics, 454. Eleventh Census, Vital Statistics, I : 484. 
 ^N. A. Humphreys, in Royal Statistical Society Journal, 46: 212 
 (1883). 
 
Mortality Statistics of the United States Census. 155 
 
 Mean After Life (Males). 
 
 England United States 
 Age. (Farr). (Meech). 
 
 1838-54- 1830-60. 
 
 O 
 
 10 
 
 20 
 
 30 
 
 40 
 
 50 
 
 60 
 
 40 
 
 41 
 
 47 
 
 48 
 
 39 
 
 41 
 
 33 
 
 34 
 
 26 
 
 28 
 
 20 
 
 21 
 
 14 
 
 15 
 
 8 
 
 9 
 
 5 
 
 5 
 
 70 
 
 80 
 
 English and American mortality were thus nearly 
 identical. 
 
 It will be noticed that the expectation of life does not 
 always decline with advancing years. In infancy the 
 reverse is the case, on account of the heavy mortalit)' of 
 that period. When the expectation does fall off, each 
 year's advance of age reduces the expectation by less 
 than a year. The advance in age and the reduction in 
 expectation could only be equal if, within that year of 
 age, there were no mortality whatever. A short rule for 
 finding the expectation of life for any age between 
 30 and 45 is to expect to live beyond that age half way 
 to age 96. For ages over 45, the expectation is half 
 way to age 90.' 
 
 We have seen that the mean life-time has increased 
 within the last half centur}'. This has not been true of 
 all the mean after-life-times. The effect of improved 
 medical skill has been to prolong some weak lives, but 
 only enough to shorten the average of survivors in gen- 
 eral. Thus : 
 
 England. 2 
 
 Age. 1S38-54. 1S81-90. 
 
 o 39.9 43.7 
 
 20 39.5 40.3 
 
 40 26.1 25.4 
 
 60 13.5 12.9 
 
 80 4.9 4.5 
 
 ' Walford, Insurance Guide and Hand Book, 162. 
 ^ Vital Statistics of Massachusetts, 1856-95, 815. 
 
156 
 
 Afnerican Economic Association. 
 
 Out of loo aged lo years, 66 used to survive to age 
 30 ; now 89 survive to that age. But 52 used to survive 
 to age 60, and now onl}' 51.' 
 
 In Massachusetts the death rates per different age- 
 classes in 1865 and 1895 were : ^ 
 
 Ages 
 
 5-9 
 
 10-14 
 
 15-19 
 
 20-29 
 
 30-39 
 
 40-49 
 
 50-59 
 
 60-69 
 
 70-79 
 
 So- 
 
 1865 
 1895 
 
 9.6 
 6.2 
 
 5-1 
 
 3-2 
 
 9.6 
 5-3 
 
 12.6 
 7.1 
 
 II. 7 
 9-7 
 
 12, 
 13. 
 
 17- 
 20. 
 
 33 
 39 
 
 70 
 82 
 
 res 
 185- 
 
 It will be observed that for ages less than 40 the mortal- 
 ity for each age-class has fallen during the thirty years ; 
 but for higher ages, it has risen. It would be interest- 
 ing to know the facts for urban and rural populations 
 separatel}'. 
 
 It has been claimed, in fact, that the effect of medical 
 science is only to decrease infant mortality, to lengthen 
 children's lives a little. But Humphreys has shown that 
 for England two-thirds of the increased life is between 
 the ages 20 and 60, that is during active life.^ 
 
 A magnitude somewhat different from the expectation 
 of life is the so-called probable after-life. It is not the 
 most probable after-life, but that after-life which is as 
 likely to be reached as not. To find it we take a sur- 
 vivorship table and mark that point in it at which just 
 half of the original number are still living. Thus, if out 
 of 1000 born, 500 will survive to age 45, the probable 
 life for persons just born is 45. If, out of the 500 living 
 at 45, 250 survive to age 70, the probable after-life for 
 persons 45 years old is 25 years. 
 
 ' Royal Statistical Society, Journal, 50 : 649. 
 ^ Vital Statistics of Massachusetts, 1856-95, 755. 
 ^ Royal Statistical Society , Journal , 46 : 213. 
 
Mortality Statistics of the United States Census. 157 
 
 The expectation of life and the probable life for 
 insured males in the United States are : ' 
 
 Age. Expectation. Probable Life. 
 
 10 50 55 
 
 30 36 38 
 
 60 15 14 
 
 VI. LIFE TABLES. 
 
 Tables of survivorship or life tables are essential to 
 the calculation of mean life times and true corrected 
 death rates and, of course, to the work of the insurance 
 actuary. They afford to the statistician the most power- 
 ful instrument he can have for the study of mortality, 
 and should be regarded as the very kernel of mortality 
 statistics. 
 
 The earliest attempt to discover a law for human 
 vitality appears to be that of Ulpian, a Roman Prae- 
 torian Praefect, about 220 A.D. The meaning of his 
 table is somewhat doubtful, but it is assumed to refer 
 to expectation of life r 
 
 Age. Expectation of Life. 
 
 0-20 30 
 
 20-25 28 
 
 25-30 25 
 
 30-35 22 
 
 35-40 20 
 
 40-41 19° 
 
 49-50 10 
 
 50-55 9 
 
 55-60 7 
 
 60- 5 
 
 The Tuscan government is said to have authorized 
 the use of Ulpian's table for valuing life annuities as 
 late as 1814.^ 
 
 ^ Meech, System and Tables of Life Insurance, p. *2. 
 
 ^ Walford, Insurance Guide and Handbook. 154. 
 
 ' Between ages 40 and 50 the expectation decreases one year for each 
 year of age. This could only be true, if there were no deaths between 
 these ages. The table cannot, therefore, be accurate. (See last sec- 
 tion, page 155). 
 
 * Assurance Magazine, 6 : 314, note. 
 
158 American Economic Association. 
 
 Graunt gave a table of survivorship based upon in- 
 fererences from the burials in London between 1640 
 and 1660 ■} 
 
 Age. Survivors. Age. Survivors. 
 
 O 100 46 10 
 
 6 64 56 6 
 
 16 40 66 3 
 
 26 25 76 I 
 
 36 16 
 
 This was probablj' more conjecture than statistics. 
 
 Halley was the first to construct a life table of value in 
 1693, though Jean de Wit in Holland had, 22 years pre- 
 viously, provided a method of coustructing such a table. 
 Halley's table was based on the births and deaths of the 
 city of Breslau, 1687-91, and deaths of the parish of 
 Christ Church. After its publication there was great 
 speculation in tontines. The first insurance company of 
 importance, the Amicable, was started in 1706. Simp- 
 son continued Halley's work in 1742. Later Price con- 
 structed his Northampton and Carlisle tables. The 
 former was based on deaths alone and the latter had too 
 few data to be reliable. In 1766 Wargentin produced 
 the first national table (Swedish). The best early tables 
 are ■? 
 
 French ; 
 Halley. St. Maur. 
 
 Age. 1687-91. Before 1750. 
 
 O 1000 1000 
 
 10 661 484 
 
 20 598 449 
 
 40 445 314 
 
 60 242 168 
 
 80 41 23 
 
 Price constructed a table for Stockholm (1755-63) 
 
 from which the following expectations of life were 
 
 derived : ^ 
 
 ^Walford, Idem, 154. 
 
 ^Levasseur, in Royal Statistical Society Journal , 50 : 554. 
 
 ^Walford, Idetn, 155. 
 
 Swedish ; 
 
 
 Wargentin. 
 1757-63. 
 
 Siissmilch. 
 Before 1775. 
 
 1000 
 
 1000 
 
 6ii 
 
 532 
 
 570 
 
 491 
 
 459 
 
 374 
 
 293 
 
 210 
 
 56 
 
 37 
 
Mortality Statistics of the United States Census. 159 
 
 Males. Females, 
 
 O 14 18 
 
 5 31 37 
 
 10 30 37 
 
 20 24 30 
 
 40 16 19 
 
 60 9 10 
 
 75 4 4 
 
 The following tables are among the best for the last 
 half of the 19th century. They relate to males ■} 
 
 Ages. o 5 10 20 40 60 80 
 
 Norway (Kiaer) 500 401 386 367 311 233 70 
 
 Denmark (David) 500 383 362 343 293 200 44 
 
 Sweden (Berg) 500 377 361 344 284 179 30 
 
 Switzerland (Gisi) 500 354 345 331 285 198 30 
 
 United States (Meech) 500 363 346 327 267 189 56 
 
 England (Farr) 500 361 345 326 265 178 40 
 
 France (Bertillon) 500 348 334 316 264 190 42 
 
 Belgium (Quetelet)_._ 500 357 341 315 251 168 34 
 
 Prussia (Becker) 500 329 313 298 248 163 29 
 
 Italy (Bodio) 500 315 297 280 235 161 32 
 
 Bavaria (Hermann) __ 500 285 271 255 205 135 22 
 
 We note here important differences in the mortality of 
 different nations, though a striking similarity in the 
 main features. The United States and England are 
 closely similar except at the later ages. The Scandina- 
 vian countries are in the lead, followed b}' those of Cen- 
 tral Europe and America. Southern Europe (Italy) has 
 low vitality. 
 
 The best general life table for the United States is 
 probably that by Meech. It is based on the population 
 returns for the censuses of 1830, 1840, 1850 and i860, 
 not on mortality statistics. It is not published in the 
 census, having been prepared too late for the census of 
 1850, with which Air. IMeech was connected. Mr. Meech 
 was not successful in inducing subsequent census super- 
 
 ' M. Block, Traite de Statistique, 216 ; Bodio, Annualita Vitalizie, 
 (Rome, 1892,) 2 ; Meech, System and Tables of Life Insurance, '-258. 
 
i6o American Economic Association. 
 
 intendents to continue the calculations. The first census 
 table was constructed by Blliott, government actuary, 
 for the census of 1870. It can scarcely be accurate, 
 being based on an assumed deficiency in the mortality 
 record of 41 per cent, and being subject to much arbitrary 
 adjustment. Its results, compared with those of Meech, 
 are as follows : 
 
 Expectation of lyife. 
 Elliott. Meech. 
 
 Age. Male. Female. 
 
 o 39. 41. 43. 
 
 10 45. 48. 49. 
 
 40 26. 28. 29. 
 
 The Tenth Census was rich in life tables relating to 
 the registration states and cities. Some were as follows : 
 
 Expectatiou of Life. (White Males). 
 
 Massachusetts. New Jersey. Dist. of Columbia. N. Y. city 
 
 O 44 46 41 33 
 
 10 51 52 47 45 
 
 40 29 29 26 24 
 
 About seventy sets of tables in all are presented in 
 this census accompanied with interesting diagrams. In- 
 deed the census was too prodigal as to quantity and 
 somewhat careless as to quality. It is difficult to sepa- 
 rate the wheat from the chaff. The tables should have 
 been accompanied by a running criticism. A general 
 defect was that no attempt was made to correct the 
 deficiencies in the returns for infants. This correction is 
 essential to a good life table. 
 
 The Eleventh Census devotes only three pages to life 
 tables. One for New Jersey, based on six-years' records, 
 gives expectations of life (for white males) as follows : 
 
 Ages. Expectation. 
 
 O 40 
 
 10 49 
 
 40 27 
 
 The corresponding figures, from Meech, for the whole 
 United States, 1830-60, are 41, 48, 38. The agreement 
 
Mortality Statistics of the United States Census. i6i 
 
 is closer than with the New Jersey table of 1880 (46, 
 52, 29), due perhaps to progressive precision in New 
 Jersey registration. The population data were used as 
 reported, though for Massachusetts and New Jersey 
 additional tables were computed, in which the popula- 
 tion under 15 years was adjusted by a formula given by 
 Mr. Elliott, in the census of 1870. " Owing to the 
 marked deficiency in the population data for children 
 under i year of age . . these life tables were even 
 
 more inaccurate than those given in volume xii of the 
 Tenth Census Reports, and the same must, therefore, be 
 said of the expectation of life derived from them. The 
 deficiency in the return of children under i year of age 
 was so great that the omission assumed by Mr. Elliott as 
 the basis of his formula in 1870 is entirely inadequate." ' 
 Tables are given for the census year for Massachusetts, 
 District of Columbia, Chicago, and Cincinnati, and for 
 six years for New Jersey, Baltimore, Brooklyn, New 
 York city, and Philadelphia. 
 
 Eife tables are the basis of life insurance, but the 
 tables employed by insurance companies to-day are con- 
 structed entirely from experience with insured lives. 
 These are, of course, subject to medical selection. The 
 expectations of life at age 40, for insured lives at different 
 times, are as follows ■} 
 
 French Tontines, Deparcieux, (1746) 27 
 
 French Tontines, Beauvisage, (1867) 29 
 
 French Ins. hves, Kertanguy, (1874) 27 
 
 French Pensioned Widows 29 
 
 Twenty English Companies, Males, (1869) 27 
 
 Twenty English Companies, Females, (1869) 28 
 
 English Gov't Pensions, Males 26 
 
 English Gov't Pensions, Females 30 
 
 German Gotha Company, (1880) 27 
 
 Thirty American Offices, Males 28 
 
 ' Eleventh Census, Vital Statistics, I : 4S4. 
 
 ^Levasseur, in Royal Statistical Society Journa/ , 50 : 565 (1887). 
 II 
 
i62 American Economic Association. 
 
 These figures do not differ greatly from those derived 
 from general mortality tables. The expectation of life 
 at age 40 from the English Life Table Number 3, 
 (1838-54), quoted above, is 26, and from the English 
 table (1876-80) also 26 ; for the United States (1830- 
 60) according to Meech, 28. 
 
 Selection among insured lives is not wholly in favor 
 of the company. Those who elect to withdraw from a 
 company are not a random collection, but consist largely 
 of healthy lives. The unhealthy are almost sure to re- 
 main. Companies which charge a natural premium or 
 assessment instead of a level one, are especially liable to 
 this sort of adverse selection. The natural premium 
 increases yearly. The level remains the same, so that 
 as time goes on and the chances of death increase, the 
 premium becomes progressively cheaper in proportion 
 to the risk, and the insured has a stronger economic 
 motive not to withdraw. For lack of precautions against 
 withdrawals of their best risks, many companies have 
 become bankrupt. In all companies, the mortality 
 among lives recently insured is less than the tables 
 allow, while among lives insured longer, the reverse is 
 true. Thus, among 17 American offices the ratios of 
 actual mortality to that computed from the tables were ■} 
 
 For those insiired one year or less 61 per cent 
 
 For those insured from five to six years 140 " 
 
 A corresponding study in England, made by Mr. E. 
 Farren,^ showed the following death rates per 1000 : 
 
 Age. 
 30- 
 70- 
 
 General 
 
 Insured 
 
 Insured 
 
 pulation. 
 
 Uves. 
 
 only one year. 
 
 10.2 
 
 8.7 
 
 6.6 
 
 67. 
 
 63. 
 
 54- 
 
 1 Emory McClintoch, (N. Y. Mutual Life), Effects of Selection, 
 (New York, 1892), 31. 
 ^ Farr, Vital Statistics, 483. 
 
Mortality Statistics of the United States Census. 163. 
 
 Thus the influence of selection is in favor of the com- 
 pany at first and against it later on, while its general 
 effect is to bring the mortality of insured lives only 
 slightly below that of the general population. 
 
 The importance of selection in insurance is not yet 
 appreciated by the companies. It belies the boasted 
 precision of the actuary's calculation of risks. The 
 time must come when its effect will have to be consid- 
 ered in calculating premiums. This will vastly compli- 
 cate the actuary's work for, instead of relying on a single 
 life table, he must have recourse to a separate life table 
 for those insured at each age of life. 
 
 Some policies confine their holders to certain territo- 
 ries or latitudes. The wisdom of this restriction is seen 
 by comparing the ordinary experience table with one 
 constructed by Air. C. N. Jones for American tropical 
 experience :' 
 
 American Experience. Tropical 
 
 Age. 30 Offices. Experience. 
 
 20 1000 1000 
 
 40 858 767 
 
 60 635 460 
 
 80 173 56 
 
 Statistics collected by },Ieikle, in England, and JMcClin- 
 tock, in America, show greater longevity among abstain- 
 ers from alcoholic beverages than among non-abstainers. 
 
 If the survivors opposite any age in a life table be de- 
 ducted from the survivors of the year previous, the 
 difference will be the numbers dying in the intervening 
 year. A table of such differences is a mortality table. 
 It is interchangeable with the survivorship table, since 
 either can be obtained from the other. A complete set 
 of life tables requires many columns besides the three 
 thus far mentioned (survivors, dying, expectation of life). 
 
 ' Meech, System and Tables, p. "2 ; Papers and Transactions Actu- 
 arial Society of America, No. 11, 1898, p. 316. 
 
164 Ainerica7i Economic Association. 
 
 Sometimes as many as eleven columns are given and 
 these do not include the " commutation tables " of the 
 actuary, which involve the interest element. 
 
 The law of human mortality (or the equivalent law of 
 survivorship) has usually been treated empirically. Ex- 
 ponential formulae have been fitted to it by Gompertz, 
 Makeham, and others. L,exis, however, queried why it 
 should not conform to the law of chance as, for instance, 
 do the heights or weights of men. He observed that if 
 the law of mortality be plotted graphically, the curve 
 resembles, at the old age end, the curve of the law of 
 chance. Recently Karl Pearson has shown that the 
 entire mortality curve can be accounted for by adding 
 together five chance curves.' The importance of this 
 contribution to the subject lies in the fact that it rids it 
 of its purely empirical chai'acter, and co-ordinates the 
 law of human mortality with the law of the distribution 
 of human heights, cranial capacity, and other measure- 
 able characteristics, as well as with the laws of lottery 
 drawing, coin tossing, and games of chance. One curious 
 point brought out by Pearson, is that the conformity of 
 the mortality law with the law of chance is possible 
 only by including ante-natal deaths. We must begin 
 our observations at the beginning (conception), not after 
 seven to ten months of life have passed. 
 
 The methods of constructing life tables can only be 
 briefly mentioned here. It will not do simply to take 
 statistics of, say 100,000 deaths, and record how many 
 of the persons thus registered died i year old, 2 years old, 
 etc. Such a table would not be a true table of survivor- 
 ship, except in a stationary population. In an increasing 
 population there is always an abnormal number of 
 
 1 Chances of Death, and other Studies in Evolution, (London ; Ar- 
 nold), Vol. I, p. 26. 
 
Mortality Statistics of the United States Census. 165 
 
 children and hence an abnormal number of chil- 
 dren's deaths each year. Statistics of deaths in such a 
 population would thus be overloaded with short lives. 
 The mean duration of life calculated from such a table 
 {i. e.^ the "average age of the dying") would be too 
 small. Dr. Price's Northampton table is an example of 
 such an error. The mean duration of life was 25. Dr. 
 Farr found for a later period the same mean life for 
 Northampton, computed by the same (erroneous) 
 method, but the true method gave 38 !' 
 
 If a population is stationarj^, however, statistics of 
 death are sufficient to establish a life table. This 
 method was used by Halley. As we have seen, statistics 
 of age distribution in such a population would also give 
 a life table. In practice, however, no stationary popula- 
 tions exist. The age distribution at successive censuses 
 in a moving population (together with the total num- 
 bers) will suffice to determine a life table. This method 
 is employed by Meech. 
 
 The best tables, however, are those constructed from 
 the death rates for each age group. Knowing the death 
 rate for the age group, 5-6, it is possible to compute how 
 many out of a given number living at age 5 will survive 
 to age 6. Beginning at age o (with any arbitrary num- 
 ber such as 100,000) the survivors can be recorded for 
 each successive year to the end. The details of the 
 method have been improved by numerous writers, in- 
 cluding Fourier, Quetelet, Bertillon, Farr, Knapp, etc. 
 
 VII. SUGGESTIONS. 
 
 In closing this very rapid survey of the field of mortal- 
 ity statistics in the United States, the following recom- 
 mendations for the twelfth census suggest themselves : 
 
 ' Farr, \'iial Statistics, 480. 
 
i66 AmericMi Economic Association. 
 
 1. Omit enumeration of deaths entirely. The result- 
 ing " statistics " are not only useless but mischievous. 
 They cast discredit on the census as a whole. They in- 
 crease its cost and occupy valuable space. Their collec- 
 tion and analysis absorb attention which would other- 
 wise be free to prepare the really valuable features of the 
 census. 
 
 2. Accompany every figure subject to doubt with a 
 statement as to its possible or probable error, such notes 
 to be attached to the tables and figures by reference 
 stars or letters. 
 
 3. Dispense with all digits not really significant. 
 
 4. Calculate rates on basis of population at center of 
 year. 
 
 5. Make more use of corrected death rates. 
 
 6. Make more use of life tables, but only where they 
 can be accurately computed. 
 
 7. Give prominence to age distribution tables in 
 connection with life tables, using solid diagrams such 
 as Bodio's.' 
 
 8. Make the census of 1900 a Jubilee census and 
 review critically all the mortality statistics of value (not 
 great in amount) in the United States, official and 
 unofficial, with a briefer historical review of the best 
 work abroad. 
 
 9. Insert short catch titles for the tables, and in 
 general make tables of contents and indexes more usable. 
 
 A more radical recommendation is to establish a 
 national system of registration of births, marriages and 
 deaths. This need not pretend at first, to be complete 
 but only representative.^ Certain areas may be selected 
 for national registration in the south, west, etc., and 
 
 ' Annali di Statistica, 12: i6,ff., (ig 
 
 ^C. L. Wilbur, in Am. Stat. Assn. Publications, 5 188 (1897). 
 
Mortality Statistics of the United States Census. 167 
 
 the results compared with state registrations in the 
 east. As Dr. Wilbur says, in meteorology we establish 
 selected stations of obser\'ation. We do not attempt 
 to record all the weather. Attempts at completeness are 
 apt to ruin accuracy. There will almost certainly be 
 some bad figures to contaminate the good. An essential 
 feature of Dr. Wilbur's plan would be to empower the 
 registrar to reject returns shown to be seriously defective. 
 
 VIII. UTERATURE. 
 
 The following list is by no means a complete biblio- 
 graphy. To enumerate all that has been written on mor- 
 tality statistics (even excluding their application to life 
 insurance) would require many hundred pages. The 
 i writings noted below are merely a few of such as would be 
 
 most useful to the American student and would put him 
 on the track of earlier and collateral references. Among 
 important writers omitted are De Wit, Halley ,Siissmilch, 
 De Parcieux, Price, Tetens, De Moivre, Fourier, L/a Place, 
 Baily, Milne, Moser, De Morgan, Becker, Wittstein, 
 Gompertz, Makeham, Bodio, Korosi, Billings. 
 
 1 United Stales Census Volumes, beginning with 1850. Only those of 
 
 ;j 1880 and 1890 are of much value. 
 
 I Annual reports of the National, state, and municipal boards of 
 
 health, especially those of Massachusetts. 
 
 A Summary of the Vital Statistics of the New England States for the 
 year 1892, (Boston, Damrell & Upham), by the secretaries of 
 the state boards of health. 
 
 The Vital Statistics of Massachusetts, 1856-95 (in Twenty-Eighth An- 
 nual Report of State Board of Health of Massachusetts for 
 1896), by S. W. Abbott, Secretary. 
 
 Bills of Mortality, 1810-1849, City of Boston, by Lemuel Shattuck, 
 Boston (Registry Department), 1893, xliv, 87 pp. 
 
 Monthly Bulletin of Vital Statistics of Connecticut, New York, Mich- 
 igan, and other states. 
 
 Publications of the American Public Health Association. 
 
 Publications of the American Statistical Association, especially 1892-3. 
 
i68 American Economic Association. 
 
 Race Traits and Tendencies of the American Negro, by F. L. Hoff- 
 man. In Publications of the American Economic Association, 
 1896. 
 
 Publications of the American Society of Actuaries. 
 
 The Probabilities of the Duration of Human Life in the United States, 
 Am. Philos. Soc, Philadelphia, Vol. Ill, p. 25, ist Series, 1791. 
 \Vm. Barton. 
 
 Philadelphia Life Tables, Am. Philos. Soc. of Philadelphia, 1870, 
 p. 17. By P. E. Chase. 
 
 Social Science Association of Philadelphia, 1879. Stockton-Hough on 
 "Statistics of Births, Deaths, Marriages, etc., in Philadelphia, 
 1861-72," and "Relative Influence of City and Country 
 Life," etc. 
 
 System and Tables of Life Insurance, by Levi W. Meech. 
 
 Statistics and Sociology, by Richmond Mayo-Smith, New York, 1895. 
 
 Reports of the Registrar of Vital Statistics of England and other 
 countries. 
 
 Journal of the Royal Statistical Society : e.g., " Value of Death 
 Rates," December, 1874, by Humphreys ; " Decline in English 
 Death Rate," 1883, by Humphreys ; "Tables of Mortality and 
 Survivorship," by Levasseur, March, 1887 ; "Summary of Sev- 
 eral Male Life Tables," 1887, by Ogle. 
 
 Journal of the Institute of Actuaries, e.g., " Contributions to the His- 
 tory of Life Insurance," 1850; "Construction of Life Ta- 
 bles," 1861, by Farr. 
 
 Text-book of the Institute of Actuaries. 
 
 Insurance Guide and Handbook, by C. Walford, 2d Edition, 1867. 
 
 New Life Table of Glasgow, by H. Chalmers. 
 
 English Life Table, by Wni. Farr. (This is the best life table extant). 
 
 Vital Statistics, by Wm. Farr, London, 1885. 
 
 Elements of Vital Statistics, by A. Newsholme, London, 1889. 
 
 Studies in Statistics, by G. B. Longstaif, London, 1891. 
 
 The Chances of Death, etc., by Karl Pearson, London, 1897. 
 
 Bulletin de I'lnstitut International de Statistique. 
 
 Journal de la Society de Statistique de Paris, e. g., " Diverses mani^res 
 
 de mesurer la vie humaine," March, 1886, by Bertillon. 
 Allgemeines statistisches Archiv. 
 Annales de Demographic Internationale. 
 Annualita vitalizie, Rome. 
 
Mortality Statistics of the United States Census. 169 
 
 Annali di Statistica, Rome. 
 
 Ueber die Ermittlung der Sterblictikeit, etc., 1868, by G. F. Knapp. 
 
 Abliaiidlungen aus der niathematisclien Statistik, Leipzig, 1869, by G. 
 
 Zeuner. 
 Physique sociale, by Ad. Quetelet. 
 
 Tables de mortality et leur developpement, 1872, by Quetelet. 
 Einleitung in die Theorie der Bevolkerungsstatistik, Strassburg, 1875 
 
 by W. Lexis. 
 Traits theorique et pratique de statistique, Paris, 1878, by M. Block. 
 Die Lehre von der Mortalitat und Morbilitat, Jena, 1882, by H. West- 
 
 ergaard. 
 Die mittlere Lebensdauer, Jena, 1893, by L. von Bortkewitsch. 
 Statistik und Gesellschaftslehre, 1895-7, by G. von Mayr. 
 
 Irving Fisher. 
 
 Yale University. 
 
statistics of Crime in the United States Census. 
 
 I. Statistics of Crime prior to 1890. 
 II. Census of 1890. 
 
 III. General criticism of Census Statistics of Crime. 
 
 IV. Propositions for Twelfth Census. 
 
 The United States census of 1890 devotes the greater 
 part of the volumes entitled Crime, Pauperism and 
 Benevolence, to the statistics of prisoners. The desig- 
 nation statistics of crime is not so exact as the term 
 statistics of prisoners, but may be considered authorized 
 by its use in the census volumes. 
 
 No statistics of crime or prisons appear in the census 
 before that of the year 1850, which marked the begin- 
 ning of modern methods in census taking. 
 
 The population schedule for 1850 contains as its last 
 rubric the question whether the person enumerated was 
 deaf and dumb, blind, insane, idiotic, a pauper, or a con- 
 vict.' The instructions went so far as to say that enum- 
 erators should strive to find out, though not by direct 
 questioning, whether any person not an inmate of a penal 
 institution at the time of the census, had been convicted 
 of crime during the year, and if so to return him as a 
 convict.^ Furthermore the census definition of "family'' 
 indicates clearly that penal institutions constituted a 
 family in the census use of the term. 
 
 Clearly then the population schedule of 1850, which 
 was substantially repeated in i860 and 1870, offered an 
 opportunity for statistics at least of prisoners. The 
 
 ' Seventh Census, xii. 
 ^ Idem, xxii. 
 
statistics of Crime in the United States. 1 7 1 
 
 return of convicts at large must of necessity have been 
 defective, as the qiiestion was not suitable for a census 
 schedule. But the statistics of institution families could 
 have been separated from the remainder of the popula- 
 tion in such a way as to furnish a study of the personal 
 characteristics of the inmates of correctional institutions, 
 as well as of other categories of institutions. Such sta- 
 tistics would have comprehended only such items of 
 statistical information as were available for the popula- 
 tion at large, since none of the special characteristics of 
 this population group were asked — crime for which 
 committed, sentence, etc. None the less these statistics 
 of personal characteristics derivable from the population 
 schedule were not tabulated by the census authorities. 
 Such statistics of prisoners as we possess prior to the 
 year 1880 were derived from another source, the sched- 
 ule of Social Statistics.^ This related to a variety of 
 subjects and was essentially a locality schedule. Among 
 its questions was one as to the number of prisoners in 
 the place. But instructions as to what constituted a 
 prisoner are lacking. The question was capable of 
 several interpretations. It might apply only to peni- 
 tentiaries or might include also the county jails and 
 houses of correction. It might include only persons 
 convicted of crime, or all inmates of penal institutions, 
 among whom those awaiting trial are a considerable frac- 
 tion. The number of prisoners reported by the census in 
 1850 and i860 is small, and the subsequent census vol- 
 umes admit that historical comparisons prior to 1880 
 are worthless.^ In 1870 the statistics of prisoners were 
 gathered by the same means as in the preceding census, 
 though there seems to have been greater care exercised 
 
 ^ Idem, xii. 
 
 ' Eleventh. Census. Crime, Pauperism and Benevolence, i : 126. 
 
172 American Economic Associaiio7i. 
 
 in the enumerations required by the schedule of Social 
 Statistics. The superintendent devoted considerable 
 attention to this Social Schedule and issued definite in- 
 structions as to the interpretation of its headings. In 
 connection with prisoners we learn that inmates of 
 workhouses (houses of correction) were not to be 
 included. But the schedule remained merely a sum- 
 mary of the number, without guarantees for its proper 
 filling out. The writer is informed, however, of one in- 
 stance in which the report for an entire state was a 
 mere guess, and believes it to be the opinion of those 
 well informed on the subject, tliat the entire enumera- 
 tion was exceeding slipshod. 
 
 The figures furnished by the censuses of 1850, i860 
 and 1870 are merely statements of the total number of 
 prisoners by geographical divisions. In the form in 
 which the information was gathered, there could be no 
 study of details. 
 
 With the census of 1880 we find a great improvement. 
 The facts relating to prisoners were gathered individually. 
 The schedule contained not only the data required for 
 the population as a whole, of which the prisoners form 
 a part, but also specific data relating to cause of incarcera- 
 tion, and in the case of conviction, the nature of the 
 offence and the duration of sentence. A considerable 
 part of the volume entitled Defective Dependent and 
 Delinquent Classes is devoted to the analysis of the 
 figures and to the tables relating to crime. For the first 
 time we find in the census the study of a population 
 group of criminals in their various demographic and 
 social characteristics. 
 
Statistics of Crime in the United States. 173 
 
 II. 
 
 With the census of 1890 the statistics of prisoners 
 underwent a considerable enlargement. The special 
 schedule for this class' contained not onh' as before the 
 questions of the general population schedule, which were 
 more numerous than in 1880, and the special questions 
 of 1880, but a number of questions relating to social and 
 industrial matters not found in the general enumeration. 
 Of this nature were questions concerning occupation in 
 prison, degree of industrial education, employment at 
 time of arrest, advanced education, residence in or out of 
 the state, health and use of alcoholic liquors. 
 
 Thanks to the use of the electrical tabulating machine 
 the utilization of the data contained in the schedules is 
 remarkably complete. The tables are in this respect 
 probably unique. Nowhere does the writer know of a 
 fuller analysis of a population group. In the volume 
 devoted to general tables^ as many as 51 1 pages are given 
 to the statistics of prisoners. 
 
 If we attempt a critical examination of these volumes, 
 it is not in a captious spirit, but solely in the hope of 
 pointing out errors to be avoided in the future. It is the 
 more necessary to emphasize this, as the need of brevity 
 forces us to confine our remarks to what seem to us the 
 errors of the volume. 
 
 The volume of general tables is open to the following 
 criticisms : 
 
 a. The tabulation is at times wasteful and without 
 purpose. 
 
 b. The tabulation is defective, differing in grouping 
 from that of the general population. 
 
 1 For questions asked on this schedule, see Eleventh Census, Crime, 
 Pauperism and Benevolence, 1:1, footnote a. 
 ''■ Idem, Part 2. 
 
174 American Economic Association. 
 
 c. Much of the tabulation is often superfluous, as in 
 the case of the data given in the general census and in 
 the statistics of prisoners, it is more elaborate in the 
 latter. 
 
 d. The tabulation relates to superfluous data, in that 
 corresponding inquiries were not made at all in the gen- 
 eral census of population. 
 
 a. To some persons the entire volume has appeared to 
 be an example of wasteful tabulation. It has been 
 pointed out that to devote five hundred and eleven pages 
 of tables to eighty thousand persons is a disproportionate 
 allotment of space compared with that given to the popu- 
 lation in general. This criticism is hardly just in view 
 of the high social interest which attaches to prisoners as 
 a class. It is only justifiable in part, on the supposition 
 that the extreme elaboration of the figures relating to 
 prisoners would interfere with or prevent the proper 
 tabulation of data of still greater social interest. In view 
 of the generous appropriations made for the eleventh 
 census it would be difficult to trace any such effect. In 
 any general organization of the statistics of a country 
 considerations as to the relative urgency and importance 
 of different inquiries must receive due attention. 
 
 In some cases it would appear that there has not been 
 a due regard for economy of space, but the most impor- 
 tant defect is the printing of long tables of comparatively 
 little significance. Thus Table 49 gives double, triple 
 and quadruple crimes by states.' It records 3,367 facts, 
 occupies 432 columns and 28 pages of printed matter. 
 Of these columns ten only contain in excess of 25 cases ; 
 43 only in excess of 5 cases ; the remainder relating 
 generally to one case. The fact that such and such a 
 combination of crimes is represented once in the prisons 
 '^ Idem, 2 : 216-243. 
 
Statistics of CriTue in the United States. 175 
 
 of the United States, and that it is found in a certain state 
 is not of sufficient importance to warrant its separate 
 tabulation. This matter is carried still further in Table 
 53, comprising 30 pages, which gives the various combi- 
 nations of charges, a cross-reference table.' The fact that 
 the analysis in the introduction contains no mention of 
 these tables beyond a mere naming of them is perhaps 
 sufficient evidence that they elucidate no question of 
 interest. 
 
 Another table gives occupations in prisons by groups 
 of crime." Concerning the value of such a tabulation, it 
 is only necessary to quote from the introductory an- 
 alysis : " the foregoing table has been inserted in order 
 to complete the text according to the method adopted for 
 the entire report, but the occupations of prisoners under 
 sentence have little relation to the crimes with which 
 they are charged." ^ This admits that in order to follow 
 out a scheme of possible combinations a table has been 
 printed which has no value whatever. 
 
 b. Defective tabulation is to be noted in the tables re- 
 lating to occupations of prisoners prior to arrest. These 
 occupations are summarized in groups, but the groups 
 here given do not accord with the occupation tables of 
 the census, and in the introductory analysis no attempt is 
 made to correlate the figures here given with those of the 
 census of population. This lack of harmony between 
 different parts of one and the same census is one of the 
 gravest faults of the eleventh census and is unfortunately 
 of not infrequent occurrence. 
 
 c. An example of superfluous tabulation is found in 
 
 Table 55,* which gives a combination of the birthplace 
 
 ' Idem, 2 : 254-273. 
 'Table 93. Idem, 2 : 387, f. 
 ^ Idem, I : 1S9. 
 * Idem, 2, facing p. 276. 
 
iy6 American Economic Association. 
 
 of fathers and mothers for persons of mixed parentage. 
 The numbers are in man}' cases too small to be signifi- 
 cant, even if we knew the corresponding data for the 
 population at large. But even in the cases where the 
 numbers are considerable it adds nothing to our knowl- 
 edge to know that the combination, A father and B 
 mother, occurs x times among prisoners, so long as we do 
 not know the frequency of the combination among the 
 general population. 
 
 d. The absence of data for the general population on 
 degree of industrial education, advanced education, 
 idleness or employment at a given time, health, and use of 
 alcoholic liquors, renders their inclusion in the statistics 
 of prisoners of doubtful utility. The paucity of the an- 
 alysis on these points is proof that it was not practicable 
 to draw from them conclusions of any particular signi- 
 ficance. 
 
 It should not be overlooked that questions of such a 
 nature may in some cases become generalized and be 
 applied to the population at large. By ascertaining 
 such facts concerning a population group we sometimes 
 make a step towards enlarging our knowledge of the 
 population generally. But it may be doubted whether 
 the questions here mentioned are capable of general 
 application. 
 
 We may now turn our attention briefly to the analysis 
 of the statistics of prisoners contained in Part i.' The, 
 text has been prepared with a great deal of care and 
 many calculations of percentages have been made with 
 the idea of bringing out the main results of the inquiry. 
 
 But the comparisons which are made do not always 
 attain this result. They suffer from two defects. 
 
 ' Idem, I : 123-263. 
 
Statistics of Crime in the United States. 177 
 
 (i) Certain phenomena are grouped according to per- 
 centages of the total number of prisoners, without a 
 reference to the corresponding classes in the population. 
 
 (2) When comparisons are made with the population, 
 it sometimes happens that they are not made in the 
 proper form. 
 
 (i) In comparing proportions of men and women in 
 prison at different ages it appears that in the higher age 
 classes the proportion of women to all in the respective 
 classes is greater than in the lower age classes.^ This 
 fact seems to authorize the statement that in later 
 life the tendency to crime is relatively stronger among 
 women.^ But such a statement assumes that the 
 proportion of men and women in the general population 
 is the same at each age class, an assumption which 
 students of vital statistics are fully aware is untenable. 
 Had the comparison been made with the number of 
 persons living of each sex and each age class we should 
 have been able to see the facts much more clearly. 
 
 As the value of statistics of personal and social charac- 
 teristics of prisoners depends upon a comparison with 
 the same elements in the population at large, it is 
 hardly necessary to point out again that where such 
 comparisons cannot be made, data relating to prisoners 
 have little value. 
 
 (2) The comparisons made with the entire popula- 
 tion ignore the fact that prisoners are recruited entirely 
 from the adult population. This affects many compari- 
 sons, of which the following are illustrations : 
 
 ' Idem, I : 155. 
 
 ' " In later life, generally speaking, the tendency to crime is rela- 
 tively greater among women, but in early and middle life among 
 men." Ibid. 
 
 12 
 
lyS American Economic Association. 
 
 pirst, — We are told that the ratio of prisoners 
 to the total population is greatest in the western 
 section of the United States/ This is in part due to the 
 fact that that section contains in its population the largest 
 proportion of adult "males, but of this we have no hint 
 in the report. In like manner we are informed 
 that the same section contains the smallest percen- 
 tage of female prisoners.^ Without the explanation that 
 adult females were relatively less numerous in the gen- 
 eral population west of the Rocky Mountains than east 
 of them, the fact seems to be explicable only on the 
 ground of greater virtue. 
 
 Secondly, — We find a comparison of the prisoners of 
 foreign birth with the foreign born population, and 
 of those of native birth with the native born population.' 
 The defect of such a comparison has been frequently 
 pointed out. The foreign born population, chiefly adults, 
 furnishes naturally a much larger proportion of criminals 
 than the native born population, which contains a large 
 proportion (nearly one-half) of children.'' Whatever 
 differences may exist between the different elements with 
 respect to the quotas which they furnish to the prisons, 
 it is of the utmost importance, in view of the role of this 
 question in current discussion, that they should be cor- 
 rectly calculated. 
 
 ' Idem, I : 126. 
 
 - Idem, I : 128. 
 
 ' In the table on page 125 and in a subsequent remark on page 
 126. It is to be noted as an unexplained curiosity that the ratios 
 printed on page 124 and the comment immediately following the table 
 do not agree with those printed on page 125. In the subsequent 
 pages it is substantially the latter ratios which reappear as on page 
 166. 
 
 *Cf. the author's Annual Statistics of Prisoners, 1890, and H. H. 
 Hart, Immigration and Crime, in Am. Journal of Sociology, 2 : 369. 
 (1896). 
 
Statistics of Crime in the United States. 179 
 
 Thirdly, — In the treatment of marital relations ' the 
 age element is neglected. The fact that sixty-four per 
 cent of the prison population, as compared with 59.29 
 per cent of the general population, are single, has no 
 special social significance. But if it is remembered that 
 the prisoners are adults, and that among the adults 
 (twenty years of age and over) in the general population 
 the proportion of single persons is 25.64 per cent, the 
 facts relating to the conjugal condition of prisoners 
 acquire a new significance. 
 
 III. 
 
 Our criticism has thus far related to the statistics of 
 prisoners, and as such has pointed out some defects in the 
 census of 1890. It is generally supposed that statistics 
 of prisoners and statistics of crime are one and the same 
 thing. But such is not the case. The census volume 
 tells us very little about crime. 
 
 In the statistical study of crime we are interested in 
 quantitative measurements. This is sometimes desig- 
 nated as the quantity of crime, and the questions of 
 interest relate to the extent of crime among the popula- 
 tion at large and in the several classes which compose it. 
 Now the quantity of crime can be nothing else than the 
 number of crimes committed (or ascertained to have been 
 committed) in a given space of time (a year) by a given 
 population. The ratio which expresses this quantity 
 in analogy v.dth the birth and death rate may be desig- 
 nated the crime rate. It is this crime rate which is of 
 importance for the study of criminal tendencies. 
 
 The number of prisoners at a given time, which de- 
 pends upon the number of persons committed to prison 
 annually and the duration of their sentences, is no indica- 
 
 ' Eleventh Census. Crime, Pauperism and Benevolence, i : 168. 
 
t8o American Economic Association. 
 
 tion of the quantity of crime, and cannot serve as a 
 substitute for the crime rate. This can be made clear by 
 an assumed case which exaggerates the disparities of 
 actual experience but illustrates the principle. Suppose 
 two towns, A and B, each of 100,000 population, and 
 each with 200 prisoners on the census day. Judged b}- 
 the number of prisoners, crime in the two towns appears 
 to be equal. L,et us suppose that in each town prisoners 
 are received at regular intervals, and that each prisoner 
 in town A is sentenced to two years' imprisonment, 
 while in town B each prisoner receives a sentence of six 
 months. In such a case there must be one hundred 
 prisoners sentenced ainiually in A and four hundred in 
 B to maintain an average prison population of 200 in 
 each town. 
 
 Or again siipposing that in a given place the same 
 number of offenses are committed annually. Should sen- 
 tences become more severe the number of prisoners would 
 increase ; should they become lighter it would decrease. 
 
 There is, therefore, no necessary connection between 
 the number of prisoners and the quantity of crime com- 
 mitted. The proportion of prisoners to the population 
 is not a substitute for the crime rate. 
 
 Such being the case the ratio of prisoners to popula- 
 tion can only be an indication of the crime rate in the 
 rare case in which the sentences for two groups com- 
 pared follow the same rules. If sentences should be 
 longer or shorter now than formerly, historical compari- 
 sons based upon prisoners would be inaccurate. In an 
 article on "Crime and the Census,'" the writer has at- 
 tempted to examine how far the prison population gives 
 an indication of the crime rate. By an analysis of the 
 
 'Am. Academy of Political and Social Science. Annals 9 • 42-60 
 (1897). 
 
statistics of Crime in the United States. i8i 
 
 various sentences imposed, which cannot be reproduced 
 here, he reached the following conclusions : 
 
 ' ' The census volume fails to give us a correct idea of crime in the 
 United States . 
 
 1. Because it furnishes no basis for a calculation of the increase 
 of crime. 
 
 2. Because in depicting the geographical distribution of crime, it 
 favors one locality at the expense of another. 
 
 3. Because it exaggerates the number of the male sex in the aggre- 
 gate of crime. 
 
 4. Because it assigns to the negroes a larger, and to the foreign- 
 born white a smaller, share in the total of crime than belongs to each. 
 
 5. Becaiise it distorts the picture of the relative frequency of the 
 different classes of crime. " ' 
 
 As the foregoing quotation suggests, it is not only 
 for crime in the aggregate, but also for the crime of 
 special groups that we stand in need of the crime rate. 
 
 ' In March, 1897, Mr. W. D. Morrison published in the Journal of 
 the Royal Statistical Society an article upon ' ' The Interpretation of 
 Criminal Statistics," from which the following sentences bearing 
 upon this point are gathered : " It is as well to state at the outset 
 that all competent statisticians are agreed that the movement of 
 crime in a community cannot be determined by a reference to the 
 movement of the prison population, or in other words by an appeal to 
 prison statistics. . . According to these returns (English prisons) 
 the daily average prison population, both in local and convict prisons, 
 has decreased almost continuously year by year during the last seven- 
 teen years. At first sight this continuous diminution of the prison 
 population looks exceedingly like a corresponding decrease in the 
 amount of crime. But a closer examination of the matter shows that 
 a decreased prison population is not necessarily produced by a 
 decrease of crime. The daily average prison population depends on 
 the duration of sentences and not upon the amount of crime." . . . 
 "It is of course to be admitted that if sentences were of the same 
 length at the present day as thej' were about twenty years ago, then 
 the prison population would be an approximate index of the move- 
 ment of crime. But we know as a matter of certaint}' that sentences 
 are not so long now as twenty years ago." Mr. Morrison then goes 
 on to show that the heavier classes of penalties are less frequently 
 imposed than formerly, and that in each class it is the less severe 
 penalties which are growing in importance. 
 
1 82 Ainerican Economic Association. 
 
 IV. 
 
 The census of 1900 must of necessity make an enumera- 
 tion of the prison population as an integral part of the 
 general population. But in so far as it seeks to elucidate 
 special problems of crime, we believe that a mistake would 
 be made in following the traditions of the past, and in 
 utilizing the prison population for the purpose. 
 
 In so far as crime is a subject of stud)', there should be 
 an effort to approximate the methods and practice of 
 other countries. But an enumeration of cases judicially 
 decided offers many difficulties because of the multi- 
 plicity of courts. The problem is somewhat simplified 
 if we seek the statistics of admissions to penal institu- 
 tions on conviction of crime. 
 
 This is a practicable basis for crime statistics in the 
 United States. There remains only the question of or- 
 ganization. Obviously the figures relating to the year 
 of inquiry should be collected continuously throughout 
 the year. The schedules should be prepared early and 
 should be in the hands of prison officials long enough in 
 advance to reach a complete understanding. The work 
 would be greatly facilitated by the preparation of a model 
 prison register, which should be so arranged as to contain 
 the data required by the census as well as that prescribed 
 by state legislation. 
 
 Of course such a plan would break with past traditions, 
 and would leave us for a time without any historical 
 comparisons. But this evil is less than that of faulty 
 comparisons. For long term sentences of one year and 
 over it might be possible to establish from the records of 
 the larger institutions, which as a rule are well kept, the 
 number committed each* year for the last ten years, and 
 thus to establish a basis of comparison for a most im- 
 
Statistics of Crime iti the United States. 183 
 
 portant section of the criminal population. Indeed the 
 interest in this subject would warrant annual statistics 
 of this class, and the task would not encroach seriously 
 upon the resources of the census bureau/ 
 
 The propositions of the writer are for statistics of 
 crime upon the basis of persons convicted and received 
 by penal institutions in the course of a year. 
 
 1. For serious offenders (sentences of one year or of 
 greater severity) y4««z<fl/ Statistics. 
 
 2. For minor offenders (sentences of less than one 
 year) Decennial Statistics. 
 
 NOTES ON FOREIGN STATISTICS OF CRIME. 
 
 The statistics of crime in foreign countries are based 
 upon judicial proceedings. The subordination of the 
 judicial authorities to the central government, the uni- 
 versality of the criminal code and the uniformity of its 
 application, render it possible for the central govern- 
 ment to collect statistics in this fashion. 
 
 Statistics of prisons are a secondary source of infor- 
 mation, but they are largely of an administrative 
 nature. They offer no suggestions which could be of 
 interest in the United States. 
 
 Roland P. Falkner. 
 
 University of Pennsylvania. 
 
 'For fuller discussion see article on ' ' Crime and the Census, ' ' Annals 
 of American Academy of Political and Social Science. Vol. IX. p. 66 
 et seq. 
 
Pauperism and Benevolence. 
 
 A discussion of the statistics of pauperism and 
 benevolence in the United States should cover, not 
 only paupers and inmates of benevolent institutions, but 
 to some extent also the insane, feeble minded, deaf and 
 dumb and blind, many of whom because of their physi- 
 cal infirmities are wholly or in part dependent upon 
 public support. Many persons classed in the census 
 statistics as paupers would doubtless be more properly 
 enumerated under feeble minded and other special 
 classes indicated, if the separation of such classes in 
 almshouses was more perfect and the statistics more 
 accurate. The census, however, in its enumerations for 
 recent decades has drawn a somewhat arbitrary line of 
 demarkation between crime, pauperism and benevolence 
 on the one hatid, and the insane, feeble minded, deaf 
 and dumb and blind on the other. In the eleventh 
 census the enumeration of the two groups thus indicated 
 was placed in the hands of two separate special agents. 
 The published results show a two volume report on 
 crime, pauperism and benevolence,' and a single volume 
 devoted to the second group of dependent classes. It is 
 the purpose of this report to discuss only the material 
 in the volumes on crime, pauperism and benevolence, 
 and only so much of that as relates to pauperism and 
 benevolence ; the subject of crime having been considered 
 in the preceding paper by my colleague, Professor Roland 
 P. Falkner. 
 
 ' Which contains an enumeration of insane paupers, classifying 
 them by sex, color, nativity, race, and by the institutions in which 
 they were found. 
 
Pauperism and Benevolence. 185 
 
 L,et us review briefly the history of the treatment of 
 pauperism and benevolence in the United States census. 
 Inasmuch as the defective classes were enumerated 
 much earlier than paupers strictly so-called, and were 
 evidently considered as including the bulk of dependency 
 as well, a word concerning this enumeration may not be 
 out of place. The census of 1830 is the first one with 
 any informatioft on the subject. In it we find the 
 figures given for both the white and the black popula- 
 tions, indicating the number of deaf and dumb with 
 general classification for the three ages, — under four- 
 teen, fourteen to twenty-five, and twenty-five and up- 
 wards ; and figures covering the aggregate number of 
 blind persons. In the census of 1840 the same informa- 
 tion was furnished, and in addition, the numbers of insane 
 and idiotic, both white and colored, were added, and 
 also the number designated as at public charge and at 
 private charge for both white and colored, for the 
 insane and idiots, grouped together. The census of 
 1850 was the first which distinctl)' included crime and 
 pauperism. Concerning pauperism, this census gave the 
 whole number of paupers supported within the year 
 ending June i, 1850, further subdivided into native 
 and foreign ; and also the whole number of paupers 
 on June i, 1850, likewise subdivided ; and finally, 
 one column giving the actual cost of support.' The 
 circular of instructions to the marshals who took 
 the census says that it is presumed that the facts with 
 reference to the whole number of paupers of American 
 birth who have received support within the year and 
 the whole number of paupers born out of the United 
 
 'Seventh Census. Compendium, 163. 
 
i86 American Economic Association. 
 
 States who have been supported in whole or in part 
 within the various sub-divisions, maj' be inserted 
 from public records.' It then adds a statement to the 
 effect that the facts concerning the whole number of 
 native born paupers supported on June i, 1850, and 
 the whole number of those of foreign birth supported 
 on June ist, " will be obtained with certainty by popu- 
 lation schedule No. i." It also adds : " The cost of 
 support can be obtained, it is presumed, from your 
 county, parish, or other records. You will avail your- 
 self of the best sources of information within reach ; and 
 where the exact amount cannot be obtained, insert the 
 nearest estimate at which you may be enabled to 
 arrive."^ It is altogether probable that estimates on 
 the part of those who had little familiarity with pauper 
 institutions were the order of the day and remained so in 
 many subsequent censuses. The following note shows 
 the method and extent of the statistics of pauperism -in 
 the seventh census : ' 
 
 " The census returns the number of paupers supported 
 in each county in the United States in whole or in part 
 at public expense within the year preceding, and the ac- 
 tual number on the ist June, 1850, native and foreign, 
 with other particulars. As no account is taken in it of 
 those supported or relieved by individual charities, the 
 statistics, it has been thought, would not represent the 
 whole of the facts, and if absolutely relied upon as a test 
 of condition would be unjust towards those sections in 
 which nearly the whole of the relief is public. Perceiving 
 the weight of the objection the superintendent issued a 
 circular in March, 1854, to the proper officers of several 
 states in different sections, in order, if possible, to make 
 
 ' Seventh Census, xxv. 
 
 ■'■ Ibid. 
 
 ' Seventh Census. Compendium, 161. 
 
Pauperism and Benevolejice. 187 
 
 some estimates of the private charities, benevolent asso- 
 ciations, etc., but although many interesting returns were 
 received, they were not as numerous as were desired. 
 The following, however, from Massachusetts and Rhode 
 Island, New Jersey, Georgia and South Carolina will show 
 that private relief by societies and associations is admin- 
 istered to a large extent in states where the poor laws 
 are most perfect, and reasoning for the whole from a part 
 taken from sections indiscriminately, it may not be unfair 
 to assume that the proportion relieved by other than 
 public means does not differ much in the several states." 
 In the volume quoted an attempt has been made to 
 give the number of paupers actually to be found in poor 
 houses on the ist of June, 1850.^ A table is made up for 
 the following states, Massachusetts, Maryland, Virginia, 
 Mississippi, Missouri, Indiana and North Carolina, giving 
 the total number of white inmates, male and female ; the 
 total number of free colored, sub-divided into black and 
 mulatto, and each of these classes again sub-divided into 
 male and female ; the aggregate white and free colored, 
 classified according to the three age periods, —under 
 fourteen, from fourteen to twenty-four, twenty-four and 
 over — and also clsssified according to nativity in the fol- 
 lowing manner, — born in the state, born out of the state 
 and in the United States, born in Ireland, born in Ger- 
 many, born in other foreign countries, birthplace un- 
 known. To this table there was appended a note stating 
 that it was compiled in the office from the population 
 schedules and that time did not admit of an examination 
 in other states than those enumerated. This is the first 
 attempt at an actual enumeration for a few states only of 
 the pauper inmates of almshouses on a given date. The 
 other tables in this census include the paupers in or out 
 
 ''■Idem, 164. 
 
i88 American Economic Association. 
 
 of poor houses who were known to be receiving public 
 support on the date indicated. The census of i860 was 
 apparently taken in the same way and covered the same 
 ground as that of 1850. Five months were allowed for 
 the taking of each of these censuses and all the work was 
 done by United States marshals. It is only fair to add 
 that no particular thought seems to have been given in 
 any country at that time to the statistics of pauperism as 
 a part of census work. In proof of this statement it may 
 be noted that the recommendations of the International 
 Statistical Congress, assembled at Brussels in 1853, made 
 with a view to securing some uniformity in the material 
 covered by the census in different countries, suggest 
 among other things an enumeration of the blind, of the 
 deaf and dumb, and of lunatics at home and in public 
 and private asylums, but make no mention of the statistics 
 of pauperism. These recommendations in reference to 
 the defective classes were adopted in or before i860 by 
 Austria, Bavaria, Belgium, France, Holland, Prussia, 
 Saxony, Sweden and the United States.^ 
 
 With the ninth census in 1870, under the charge of 
 General F. A. Walker, an attempt was made to enlarge 
 the scope of the statistics of paupers and to make them 
 more accurate. General Walker said that the eighth 
 census in i860 and previous censuses had calculated the 
 returns of paupers in three ways and that in these 
 returns there was no uniformity in presenting the 
 results. He says : " In one state the aggregate cost of 
 poor relief was practically divided by the known cost of 
 sustaining one pauper one year and tlie quotient taken 
 for the number of persons supported during the year, 
 
 'Edward Jarvis. In Appendix C. (p. ioi,f. ) of Garfield's Report on 
 Xintli Census. House Documents, Reports of Committees, Second 
 Session, Forty-first Congress. iSeg-'yo. 
 
Pauperism and Benevoleiiee. 189 
 
 while in another state all persons entering a work or 
 almshouse for ever so limited a period were included, 
 and in a third every person receiving so much as a half 
 ton of coal in a hard winter or a dozen soup tickets was 
 set down as among the state's poor." ' In General 
 Walker's opinion, there are four desiderata in ascertain- 
 ing the pauperism statistics from, the census point of 
 view. 
 
 First — The number of persons actually inmates of 
 asylums and alms or work houses on one or more days 
 of the year, should be given. Preferably three or four 
 days should be taken for the count and if only one return 
 can be obtained, the date chosen should be as strictly 
 representative of the year as possible. This latter con- 
 dition is not met in the census date, June first, which is 
 as little representative of the average almshouse popula- 
 tion as any date could be. General Walker in testing 
 his theories, and in order to show the inadequateness of 
 a return for an}' single date refers to certain statistics of 
 the state of New York, in which the actual number of 
 inmates of county poor houses and state work and alms- 
 houses on the first day of December, 1869, and again on 
 the first day of December, 1870, was ascertained from 
 the books of the several institutions. December first 
 was chosen on the ground that it " would probably not 
 show quite so large a number of paupers as a date nearer 
 the close of the winter, but December would certainly 
 exhibit a larger number than any other month of the 
 spring, summer or autumn, excepting March, and possi- 
 bly April, and is therefore to be regarded as presenting 
 an exceptionally fair average for the year." ^ The statis- 
 tics for New York obtained on this plan showed 15,053 
 
 ' Ninth Census. Population and Social Statistics, 564. 
 '^ Idem, 563. 
 
igo American Economic Association. 
 
 inmates on December i, 1869, and 15,352 on December 
 I, 1870. But General Walker goes on to say : "The 
 books of the same institutions record the admissions 
 during the year, whose beginning and. ending are thus 
 defined, including those remaining at the beginning of 
 the year, of no less than 59,136 persons." In addition 
 to this number no account was taken of the temporary 
 and partial outdoor relief in the state of New York 
 throughout the year, the expense of which aggregated 
 $911,855.15 and is said to have been extended to 101,796 
 persons. These, if added to the above total, 59,136, 
 would give as the total number of persons receiving aid 
 from funds appropriated distinctly for the poor, 160,932. 
 Even in addition to this. General Walker reminds us 
 that within the year, 1869, in the state of New York 
 the Immigration Commissioners spent in relief work 
 $330,000, and that out of either state or city treasuries 
 there was appropriated within the state for hospitals, 
 asylums, etc., $1,903,075.00 thus showing how inadequate 
 a picture is given of pauperism by the enumeration of in- 
 mates of institutions on a single day of the year, even 
 when that date is favorably chosen. 
 
 The second desideratum indicated by General Walker 
 is that the amount of pauperism be calculated imperso- 
 nally ; that is, by dividing the aggregate expenditure 
 for poor support by the ascertained cost of maintaining 
 in each state and section by turns one pauper for one 
 year. The third desideratum indicated is that the 
 number of paupers who, for any period however 
 limited, from the beginning to the close of the year, 
 become inmates of any of the different classes of chari- 
 table institutions, should be given. The fourth deside- 
 ratum is that the paupers receiving in any form and in 
 any degree relief or assistance, in money or by supplies, 
 
Pauperism and Benevolence. 191 
 
 at the public expense, should be enumerated. The first 
 two desiderata, namely, enumeration of inmates of poor 
 houses and an estimate of the solid amount of pauper- 
 ism, were the only ones attempted in the census of 1870. 
 In respect to the relative value of these two items, 
 General Walker himself felt that the number of inmates 
 was always a very inexact measure, and that " the most 
 exact single estimate possible for the actual pauperism 
 of a country is undoubtedly obtained by dividing the 
 aggregate cost of support by the ascertained cost of sup- 
 porting one pauper for one year. This gives the 
 amount of pauperism, reducing it to a solid form, and 
 affording opportunity for easy and just comparison be- 
 tween states and sections." ' In the census of 1870 
 estimates of this character were furnished, based on the 
 cost for permanent and entire support, which varied 
 from seventy-five dollars to ninety dollars in rural 
 districts and from ninety to one hundred and twenty- 
 five dollars in towns and cities. Tlie amounts spent by 
 Immigration Commissioners in cities and amounts 
 appropriated by states to private charities were, of 
 course, omitted in estimating the total expenditure 
 within a given state or section. 
 
 The census of 1880 made a distinct departure in con- 
 sciously adopting the term " dependent " and defining 
 dependents as comprising " paupers and those who, 
 although not members of the pauper class, would be 
 liable presumably to become such, were it not that 
 private benevolence steps in and takes the place of 
 official relief.'"' Thus not only the inmates of alms- 
 houses but those who received outdoor relief, and also 
 inmates of homes for the friendless and for orphan and 
 
 ' Idem ,564. 
 
 * Tenth Census, 21 ; viii.f. 
 
192 American Economic Association. 
 
 neglected children, were covered by this census. One 
 volume of over six hundred pages was devoted to the 
 subject of the defective, dependent and delinquent 
 classes. In this volume fifty-five pages are devoted to 
 introductory matter, in which Dr. Wines, the special 
 agent, tell us that " before the present census no enume- 
 ration has been made of the inmates of charitable insti- 
 tutions for dependents who are not paupers." ' Dr. 
 Wines also remarks that the attempt to secure a com- 
 plete enumeration of the outdoor poor in the census of 
 1880 was a failure, and in comparing the total number 
 of almshouse inmates for the year 1880 with the reports 
 of some figures for previous censuses, he says : " We 
 may suppose that it was not intended to include them 
 [outdoor poor] heretofore ; " also, " there is no evidence 
 that outdoor paupers were enumerated in any previous 
 census. " "' Some departure in method seems also to 
 characterize the tenth census, inasmuch as the basis of 
 the investigation was a list of the institutions through- 
 out the United States prepared with great care in 
 advance and intended to cover all the important chari- 
 table and correctional institutions of the country. A 
 special schedule was then prepared for each separate 
 class, and the enumerators required to transfer from the 
 population schedule the name of every defective person 
 to its appropriate special schedule, and upon that 
 schedule to answer the definite questions applicable to 
 him as a member of the class to which he was supposed 
 to belong. 
 
 The bulk of the volume before us deals with the 
 insane (440 pages). About one hundred pages are 
 devoted to statistics of crime, and finally thirty-six 
 
 '^ Idem, 21 : ix. 
 ■^Ibid. 
 
Pauperism and Benevolence. 193 
 
 pages' to paupers and homeless children. It is with 
 these thirty-six pages that we are at present concerned. 
 To give another idea of the relative amount of attention 
 given to the paupers, we note that in all one hundred 
 and thirty-six tables of statistics were submitted and 
 that eight of these relate to paupers. These eight cover 
 the following subjects : 
 
 First — Paupers in almshouses in the United States in 
 1880, by states and territories, showing the number of 
 almshouse paupers in the aggregate and by sex, nativity 
 and race. 
 
 Second — The saine information for outdoor paupers. 
 
 Third — Paupers in almshouses in the United States, 
 1850 to 1880, by states and territories, showing apparent 
 increase in number of almshouse paupers during the 
 past thirty years ; and also the ratio of paupers to the 
 total population at each census. According to the 
 statement of the census authorities, themselves, this 
 comparison is utterly worthless,^ and the figures in this 
 table, with the exception perhaps of the calculation of 
 the ratio of paupers to total population for the census 
 year 1880, might better have been omitted. 
 
 Fourth — Almshouse paupers in the United States in 
 1880, by states and territories, showing total and average 
 time by days spent in almshouses by the inmates. This 
 is an interesting and valuable item, although obtained 
 for only a part of the total number of almshouse inmates 
 reported in the census. 
 
 Fifth — Age analysis, by years, of almshouse paupers 
 in the aggregate and by sex, nativity and race. 
 
 '/rfem, 443-475. 
 
 ' ' ' Any comparison between this census and any other with respect 
 to the defective, dependent or delinquent classes is almost impossi- 
 ble." Idem , 21 : ix. 
 
 13 
 
194 American Econotnic Association. 
 
 Sixth — The same information for outdoor paupers. 
 
 Seventh — Age analysis of almshouse paupers by ten 
 year periods for each state, given in the aggregate and 
 for sex, nativity and race. 
 
 Eighth — Almshouse paupers in the United States in 
 1880, showing their physical condition, form of dis- 
 ability, number having relatives in the same institution; 
 by sex, nativity and race. 
 
 No attempt was made in this census to elaborate the 
 returns of almshouse inmates and outdoor paupers. 
 The figures are put down with the usual analysis with 
 reference to the ordinary elements of the population, 
 such as sex, nativity and race. That the actual enume- 
 ration of almshouse inmates, and more particularly of 
 the outdoor poor, falls in all probability far short of the 
 real number, is frankly admitted by the census authori- 
 ties. Mr. Frank B. Sanborn in speaking of the census 
 tables of 1880, says ■} " These tables do not, in fact, 
 give even an approximation to the truth concerning 
 American pauperism." The number of paupers in 
 almshouses reported in this census was 66,203, and the 
 number of outdoor paupers 21,595, making a total of 
 nearly 88,000. Mr. Sanborn, who has had large ex- 
 perience in dealing with institutions, says in the article 
 already referred to : " If I were to estimate the number 
 of paupers in our whole country, I should not set it at 
 more than 300,000 persons at any one time, and perhaps 
 1,000,000 different persons during the year, who, in our 
 population of some 55,000,000, are forced to eat the 
 bread of others, as M. Baron says." This estimate of 
 the number of different persons within the year who 
 probably receive relief amounts to about one-half of one 
 per cent of the total population, and tallies almost 
 ^Article "Pauperism" in Lalor's Cyclopedia of Political Science. 
 
Pauperism and Benevolence. 195 
 
 exactly with a similar estimate m.ade by the present 
 writer in commenting on the census returns for 1890. 
 
 II. 
 
 Turning now to the eleventh census, we find from 
 statements made by the Superintendent, Hon. Robert P. 
 Porter, in his Introduction to the Compendium, that the 
 methods employed differ slightly from those in 1880. 
 The insane, feeble minded, deaf and blind are classified 
 under the head of special classes and are treated in a vol- 
 ume by themselves by another special agent than the one 
 who treats of the statistics of crime, pauperism and 
 benevolence. Dr. John S. Billings having charge of the 
 enumeration of the insane, etc., and Dr. Frederick H. 
 Wines, who was also a special agent under the census of 
 1880, having charge of crime, pauperism and benevolence. 
 Mr. Porter says that in "securing information relating 
 to pauperism and crime for tabulation there was no 
 essential difference between the tenth and eleventh 
 censuses. Schedules were sent to the larger institutions, 
 to be filled by the officers in charge, and for the 
 smaller institutions reliance was placed upon the regular 
 enumerators." ' The inquiries were much the same as 
 in 1880. There were few added, though the form of the 
 schedule was somewhat improved. One new feature was 
 the appointment of some three or four thousand institu- 
 tion enumerators, selected by the authorities in charge 
 of the institutions, and specially paid to fill out the insti- 
 tution schedules. This plan was followed in connection 
 with the benevolent institutions reported as well as for 
 the almshouses. In the opinion of the census authorities 
 it worked well, and secured superior ability for difficult 
 enumeration. 
 
 ' Eleventh Census. Compendium 1 :xxi. 
 
196 American Econo?nic Association. 
 
 The outdoor poor are omitted altogether in the final 
 published results of this census. An enumeration was 
 attempted and the results reported in a census bulletin,' 
 but in the opinion of the Superintendent of the Census 
 this report was misunderstood. He tells us that not one 
 in ten of outdoor paupers has been or ever will be dis- 
 covered by census enumerators. Hence, when the final 
 volumes were published, the results of this attempted 
 enumeration were omitted. 
 
 A special schedule for almshouse and benevolent insti- 
 tutions was prepared, comprising two pages of questions, 
 the first page of which was the same as that of the sched- 
 ules for all special classes and the second page of which 
 varied for each given class. The questions are reprinted 
 in detail in the census volume.^ Two volumes were 
 published giving the results, one containing the analysis 
 of tables and the otlier the tables themselves. Three 
 hundred and sixty-six tables are presented, sixt)--six of 
 which relate to pauperism in almshouses ; three to insane 
 paupers in hospitals and asylums for the insane ; and 
 sixt5'-nine to inmates of benevolent institutions ; making 
 in all a little less than half the total number of tables 
 devoted to pauperism and benevolence as compared with 
 a little more than half the number of tables devoted to 
 crime. In reference to amount of space covered, just 
 about one-half is given to the discussion of crime. 
 
 One of the most notable features of the volume devoted 
 to analysis of tables is the introduction devoted to " in- 
 mates of all institutions." ' In so far as it places side by 
 side the different results for the various classes of institu- 
 tions, it is valuable. It thus affords an opportunity for 
 
 ^ Idem. Bulletin 90, p. 13. 
 
 2 Eleventh Census. Crime, Pauperism and Benevolence 1:1, foot- 
 note a. 
 
 ^ Idein I : 7-120, 
 
Pauperism a?id Benevolence. igy 
 
 comparing readily the different classes. It attempts, how- 
 ever, an analysis of the inmates of all institutions con- 
 sidered as a single group. This is of somewhat doubtful 
 value, because the various groups differ so greatly that 
 it is questionable whether they should be aggregated. If 
 we take as an illustration the ratio of inmates of each aee 
 class to corresponding age classes in the general popula- 
 tion' and compare it with the figures for the various classes 
 of institutions,^ it is clear that they follow such different 
 lines that their combination seems arbitrary. The same 
 criticism may be made of the statistics of marital 
 condition and illiteracy. A critic is usually tolerant of 
 the superfluous, provided he finds what he wants. The 
 exhibition of results for different institutions side by side 
 being the more valuable part of the analysis, one is disap- 
 pointed when he finds that the practice of the report is 
 not uniform. In some places the separate institutions 
 are omitted. In this first summary a space is given to 
 the compai'atively worthless figures of the aggregate 
 population of all institutions. 
 
 Turning now to the analysis of tables, relating to 
 paupers in almshouses,^ we find the usual elaboration of 
 the total of 73,045 paupers in the United States on June 
 I, 1890, indicating the distribution according to color, 
 nativity and race and the ratios to the population for 
 the several census decades. The ratios are then given 
 for the geographical divisions and separately for each 
 state and territory, distinguishing the aggregate, the 
 v/hite, colored, native and foreign born. Another dis- 
 tribution of the same figures gives the results of a 
 minute inquiry into the parental origin of the paupers 
 of the United States in 1890, and the answers to ques- 
 
 ^ Idem, 52. 
 ' Idem, 56. 
 ^ Idem, 267-314. 
 
ig8 American Economic Association. 
 
 tioiis concerning naturalization and ability to speak 
 English. A minute age analysis of the aggregate 
 pauper population and a table presenting the ratio of 
 paupers in almshouses of certain age periods to one mil- 
 lion of the population of the same age periods, by sex 
 and by states and territories, follow. In the next place 
 the rather important question of health is analyzed for 
 the aggregate pauper population and by geographical 
 divisions, and for each sex. The reports of those in 
 good health are of little value, inasmuch as they include 
 the uncertain element of cases not reported. The 
 columns, however, showing the number of insane, blind, 
 deaf mutes, idiots and crippled persons who are main- 
 tained in almshouses, are of considerable interest to 
 those who treat of questions of almshouse administra- 
 tion. Tables giving the occupations of almshouse in- 
 mates prior to their admission and indicating the 
 assigned cause of pauperism are given. The table of 
 causes is a complete failure, inasmuch as a varying 
 number of causes has been assigned to each case, and 
 no attempt at discrimination or uniformity in the 
 assignment of causes has been made apparently in the 
 enumeration. No attempt is made to assign a predomi- 
 nating cause in each case so as to represent each case by 
 a single cause. The aggregate of assigned causes 
 exceeds considerably the number of cases. The causes 
 as stated, however, are analyzed at considerable length 
 with reference to sex. As an illustration of the value 
 of the census assignment of causes, it should be noted 
 that one of the causes assigned to 72,722 out of 73,045 
 inmates of almshouses is '' no other home." ' Finally, 
 the enumeration of children under sixteen years of age 
 in alm.shouses is of considerable interest in view of the 
 
 '^ Idem, 303. 
 
Pauperism, and Benevolence. 199 
 
 legislation in most states, requiring sucli children to be 
 placed in separate institutions. 
 
 A general summary of the information on pauperism 
 contained in the eleventh census is found most conven- 
 iently in the Compendium, where, in four pages,' are 
 summarized the results of six tables as follows : 
 
 1st. — Pauperism classified by sex, color, nativity and 
 race. 
 
 and. — Almshouse paupers by geographical divisions. 
 
 3rd. — Nativity and parentage of paupers. 
 
 4th. — Birthplace of foreign fathers or foreign mothers. 
 
 5th — Birthplace of foreign parents. 
 
 6th. — Analysis of mixed parentage. 
 
 In two additional pages we find the inmates of bene- 
 volent institutions enumerated by sex, color, nativity 
 and race ; and also with reference to these elements by 
 geographical divisions. Six tables showing by states 
 and territories the aggregate number of paupers and 
 inmates of benevolent institutions separately, distributed 
 according to color, nativity, race and sex, will be found 
 
 in the same volume.^ 
 
 III. 
 
 Having thus briefly reviewed the history of the census, 
 as far as it has dealt with the subject of pauperism, and 
 having set forth somev/hat in detail the results presented 
 in the eleventh census on this subject, a few general com- 
 ments may be made upon the worth of this material to 
 students of the subject. What may be said by way of 
 adverse criticism is not intended in any captious 
 spirit, nor to be considered in any way as a per- 
 sonal reflection upon the efforts or ability of the 
 special agent in charge of this work. There are cer- 
 
 ' Compendium, 2:170-173. 
 ''Idem, 2 : 202-207. 
 
200 A^nerican Economic Association. 
 
 tain well-known general causes for the lack of valuable 
 results in the United States census, which are due largely 
 to the fact that we have no permanent census bureau 
 and that the time usually allotted by Congress for the 
 taking of the census is wholly inadequate for so huge an 
 undertaking as that attempted in 1880 and 1890. And 
 finally, the census law itself is usually drawn up in 
 such a way as seriously to hamper all such social inquiries 
 as that into the state of pauperism in the country. 
 
 The first point to be considered is the value of the 
 original calculation as to the number of almshouse 
 paupers in the United States. The fact that no students 
 familiar with the conditions of pauperism would think 
 for one moment of accepting this figure as in any wise 
 indicative of the total ainount of pauperism of the United 
 States renders the subsequent elaboration of these figures 
 of doubtful value. Even if this figure is absolutely cor- 
 rect, so far as the inmates of almshouses are concerned, 
 it does not approximate the real figure for the public 
 paupers in the United States ; inasmuch as in various 
 sections of the country the almshouse is not the method 
 of providing for the public poor. Thus, in general, the 
 low figure for the southern states, as compared with the 
 northern states, is due largely to the fact that in the south 
 the public poor are boarded out in families or assisted in 
 their own homes. To know the exact number of per- 
 sons in almshouses would be valuable, therefore, only if 
 we knew at the same time the exact number of people 
 publicly supported in other ways. Then we would be 
 able to make interesting comparisons as to the relative 
 extent to which different methods were adopted in dif- 
 ferent sections of the country. Even where the almshouse 
 is the recognized mode of treatment for the public poor, 
 the amount of outdoor relief paid for out of public funds 
 
Pauperism and Be7ievole?ice. 201 
 
 is very considerable. Yet the census authorities say that 
 under existing methods it is impossible to get statistics 
 of outdoor relief. Hence, they condemn to a large ex- 
 tent the validity of their own figures concerning institu- 
 tional relief, so far as their practical value for students 
 of social questions goes. If the mere enumeration of the 
 number of inmates of almshouses is all that can be 
 obtained through the machinery of the census, it would 
 certainly seem wise to give these figures without the 
 elaborate statistical analyses and groupings to which 
 they were subjected in the eleventh census. On the other 
 hand, no one interested in statistics can fail to appreciate 
 the excellent use of statistical methods made by Dr. 
 Wines in his elaboration of figures of little value to begin 
 with, and in his illustrations and diagrams of the most 
 approved modern pattern. 
 
 The statistics of beneficiaries of the benevolent insti- 
 tutions of the United States cover four groups of institu- 
 tions as follows : 
 
 1st. — Those primarily intended for the care of children, 
 though some adults are found in them ; notably those 
 who have grown from childhood to maturity without 
 finding any other home. 
 
 2nd. — Institutions primarily for adults, though con- 
 taining children, especialh' where babes and younger 
 children have been admitted with their mothers. 
 
 3rd. — Hospitals and infirmaries. 
 
 4th. — Miscellaneous institutions not included in other 
 groups. 
 
 The chief criticism to be applied to these figures 
 seems to be the fact that the list of institutions covered 
 is probably hopelessly incomplete. And furthermore, 
 that in several of the classes, institutions are included 
 which are benevolent in name, but in no sense to be 
 
202 American Econo7nic Association. 
 
 regarded entirely as charitable. This is the case with 
 homes provided by various Friendly Societies and 
 Orders, wliere the inmates have paid perhaps for admis- 
 sion and are entitled to care during old age, in virtue of 
 having paid dues on a partial insurance plan. There is 
 no means of distinguishing how many of such institu- 
 tions are included in this enumeration ; hence the value 
 of the total figures, even for the different groups of 
 institutions, is considerably lessened. With reference 
 to the analysis and elaboration of these figures, the same 
 objections, therefore, apply as have been noted in the 
 case of paupers. 
 
 IV. 
 
 In view of the numerous difficulties to which atten- 
 tion has already been called in the preceding para- 
 graphs, it is with considerable hesitation that one at- 
 tempts even to suggest a possible policy which it might 
 be advisable for the twelfth census to follow. Inas- 
 much, however, as the schedules in connection with the 
 last census, both for almshouses and benevolent institu- 
 tions, were filled out by the representatives of the said 
 institutions or by enumerators in each institution 
 appointed by these representatives, it vv'ould seem possi- 
 ble to furnish without much additional cost a state- 
 ment, giving the number of inmates on a given date in 
 each month of the census year, that is, in each month 
 of the year preceding the date of taking the census. 
 These returns, of course, are usually copied from the 
 reports or the books and records of the institutions, and 
 in probably all of them it would be pos.sible to find ready 
 at hand or to calculate a monthly summary and, also 
 to calculate an average for the year on the basis of these 
 monthly figures. This would overcome some of the 
 
Pauperism and Benevolence. 203 
 
 objections which have been raised. The figures thus 
 furnished would correspond to the figures furnished by the 
 Registrar General in England for English pauperism 
 and would present a better view of almshouse and insti- 
 tutional population than that given at present by our 
 census. In the second place, if less expense were put 
 upon the statistical elaboration of the figures thus 
 obtained and more expense upon an attempt to secure 
 the statistics of outdoor relief, the latter might be 
 obtained with some measure of completeness by a 
 minute examination through special enumerators of 
 the administrative records of small local geographi- 
 cal divisions. Thirdly, it is certainly desirable that 
 under existing circumstances less attention be paid to 
 the statistics of benevolent institutions, or that they be 
 grouped into a far larger number of classes, clearly and 
 accurately defined as to character, methods and adminis- 
 tration of the institutions included in each class. 
 
 SAMUEI, M. IvINDSAV. 
 University of Pennsylvania. 
 
AGBICTJLTTJBE AND FARMS. 
 Agriculture. 
 
 After all the gigantic strides this country has made 
 along the path of industrial development since the Civil 
 War, it still remains largely an agricultural country. 
 Agriculture still employs a greater portion of our popula- 
 tion than any other industry, its products continue to 
 furnish the larger part of our exports, its successes or 
 failures still largely determine the degree of prosperity 
 of the community at large. It is for this reason that the 
 subject of the Economics of American Agriculture offers 
 the most interesting field of study for the American 
 economist and that it ought to be the subject of the most 
 careful inquiry at the hands of the census investigator, 
 taking precedence of all other subjects. Unfortunately 
 such has not been the case with the census investigations 
 which have been carried out so far. While it is true that 
 some progress has been made from decade to decade, the 
 degree of perfection attained remains as yet far from the 
 goal one might wish to see reached. Perhaps for that 
 state of affairs the economists are more to be blamed than 
 the statisticians who work in the government bureaus : 
 it is the province of science to point out the lines of 
 research and for the official statisticians to carry out the 
 suggestions, rather than for them to take the lead. 
 
 It is not the ambition of the writer to work out in this 
 paper any comprehensive scheme for the agricultural 
 statistics of the twelfth census ; the object is to point out 
 some of the questions which must needs interest every 
 economist who would undertake a study of American 
 agriculture ; for there is probably no branch of science 
 
Ag7-iculture. 205 
 
 which could make as much use of the agricultural statis- 
 tics as that of economics. What then are the questions 
 which the census statistics could and ought to answer for 
 the economist ? 
 
 The agricultural industry has undergone of late and is 
 still undergoing a change similar to that which revolu- 
 tionized the manufacturing industry, /. 1?., the introduc- 
 tion of machinery." It is natural to expect that the 
 effects of such change should be far-reaching and of a 
 very serious nature. True they can not be as radical as in 
 the manufacturing or mining industry, owing to the 
 peculiar conditions prevailing in agriculture, yet they 
 have made themselves sufficiently felt to precipitate in 
 England the troublesome question of " agricultural 
 depression " and to give us a silver craze in this country 
 which even to-day has not quite subsided. 
 
 The statistical data furnished by the census should 
 be of such a nature, therefore, as to enable us to 
 see whether, and if so where, the small farm is able 
 to resist the competition of the large one, as well 
 as the conditions which make its position different 
 from that of the small workshop in the manufact- 
 uring industry. While our agricultural statistics 
 answer one set of questions in this connection, they 
 are altogether silent on another. From a perusal of 
 the census volume we may learn to what extent the 
 total agricultural product of this country has increased, 
 how the products of the various crops have been growing 
 or fluctuating from decade to decade ; we can trace the 
 same for the separate states and sometimes for counties ; 
 we can tell the amount of cotton in pounds and bales each 
 state has produced, and trace it back for a few decades, — 
 
 ^Tenth Censiis 3:513, 520,f. and 530 ( volume pages. ) Report on 
 Cereal Productions, 133, I40,f., 150. 
 
2o6 American Economic Association. 
 
 facts, no doubt, of great interest and value, — but, if we 
 were to ask, how have the introduction of farm machinery, 
 the improvements in grain transportation, etc., affected 
 the economy of the farm, the official statistics would give 
 us but little satisfaction. To enable us to find an answer, 
 the data relating to cost of implements and machinery, 
 fertilizers, live-stock, etc., should be arranged in such a 
 way as to reflect conditions in each economic group, 
 according to the classification adopted by the census. To 
 explain : both the tenth and eleventh censuses contain 
 a " classification of farms by acreage and tenure by 
 counties," marked " Table 5," which gives three classes 
 of farms according to the mode of tenure, viz., farms 
 owned, those rented for fixed money value, and those 
 rented for share of products. Each of these classes is 
 subdivided into seven groups, according to size of farms. 
 I shall have a word to say later on about the latter classifi- 
 cation ; for the present let us see what we can and what 
 we can not learn from it. 
 
 As far as the classification goes it is excellent. By 
 constructing proper tables from the data given there, we 
 may be able to tell what type of farm is forging its way 
 ahead in the various parts of the country ; whether it is 
 the 20-50 acre farm as is the case in the cotton-growing 
 states, or the 100-500 acre, as the tendency seems to be in 
 the north and especially in the northwest. One can, to 
 some extent, answer the question whether the " bonanza " 
 farm is holding its own or crumbling up into smaller 
 holdings, and whether the latter are as small as those 
 resulting from the ruin of the old slave plantations 
 in the south ; one can tell whether the tendency 
 is toward an increase or decrease of farms cultivated 
 by owners as against those rented, and finally whether 
 the increase in rented farms represents a transition stage 
 
Agriculture . 207 
 
 from the position of the farm laborer to that of the farm 
 owner, or vice versa. That is as far as we can go, 
 although with the student of economics the above is 
 only the beginning of his journey. The next question 
 one naturally asks oneself is, what are the economic 
 causes at work which are responsible for the one or 
 the other tendency. There is no answer to that in the 
 census, and yoX the data actually collected by the 
 census enumerators are amph' sufhcient to give one. 
 
 Table 6 of the volume on Agriculture, following im- 
 mediately the table containing the classification of 
 farms, gives the " number, acreage, and valuation of 
 farms and products, with cost of fertilizers by counties.'''' 
 The last two words explain the utter uselessness of 
 the table. There can hardly be any interest, — out- 
 side perhaps of mere local interest, which could, how- 
 ever, be much better satisfied through other sources, — 
 in the fact that Nance county in the state of Ne- 
 braska had in 1890, 1,092 farms covering an area 
 of 215,058 acres, the cost of land, fences, and build- 
 ings being $4,108,738, that of implements and ma- 
 chinery $151,478, that of live-stock $1,004,209, and 
 the estimated value of farm products $669,770. But 
 were all these data arranged according to the size of 
 farms as given in Table 5, they would be of im- 
 mense value. We could then see that, while the 
 500—1000 acre farm invests a certain fraction of its 
 total capital in machinery, the 100-500 spends it, say, 
 on live-stock, and the 20—50 on something else. We 
 could also tell what the expendittire is per unit of pro- 
 duct in the case of each of the seven groups of farms, 
 and consequenth' which is likely to be the winner in 
 the competitive race on the world's market. This is 
 practically the only way to determine whether an 
 
2o8 American Economic Association. 
 
 increase or falling off in the number of farms in any par- 
 ticular group is merely accidental, due probably to 
 some local influences, or whether it is due to important 
 economic causes and thus indicates an actual tendency 
 for the future. It is worth pointing out that the tabu- 
 lation suggested would not involve any additional work 
 in gathering the data ; it would only require greater 
 labor in their compilation and increase somewhat the 
 bulk of the volume, unless other less important matters 
 were left out. The lack of classification, as just pointed 
 out, constitutes the most serious defect of the preceding 
 censuses. Let us see now how the classification sug- 
 gested above could be carried out in other respects. 
 
 I. Cereals. Under this heading we are given, in the 
 eleventh census, figures relating to total area of land 
 under cereals in general and the several crops in par- 
 ticular for several decades ; the same is then carried out 
 for the separate states to show the varying proportion 
 each state has contributed to the total product of the 
 country at various periods. Then follows a similar 
 series of data with regard to total production (in bushels), 
 and finally we have the distribution of the various crops 
 by altitudes, a point of greater interest to the agriculturist 
 than to the economist. 
 
 What would be gained if we had the data arranged 
 according to size of farms? We could first see what 
 particular type of farm tends more to specialization on 
 one or very few crops, and which are the ones that 
 advantageously adopt a more diversified system of culti- 
 vation. Secondly, after the system had been carried 
 out for more than one census, we could tell what was 
 the tendency in that respect with the various types of 
 farms, large, medium and small. Knowing from the 
 data mentioned before what the total product of the 
 
Agriculture. 209 
 
 farm was as well as its expenses (a point we shall con- 
 sider later) we could tell what method of farming was 
 the most profitable one for the particular type. We 
 would further know what group of farms, (according to 
 size) furnished the greater part of a given crop both 
 absolutely and relatively, what type of farm was better 
 adapted for intensive or extensive cultivation, which of 
 the two methods paid better, what states were more 
 favorable to one or the other method and why. 
 
 2. What has been said with regard to the classifica- 
 tion of cereals applies with equal force to figures relat- 
 ing to fruit growing, market gardening, cotton raising, 
 etc., as well as to unimproved land. The latter point is 
 especially interesting, as it would give us a means of 
 determining whether the area of unimproved land in a 
 farm had any connection with its size. 
 
 3. Live-stock. The number of horses and other 
 working-animals on the farm as well as their value 
 should be given for the various groups of farms. This 
 would show whether the amount of capital invested in 
 working-animals was less per acre and per unit of product 
 in the large farm than in the small one. 
 
 4. Itnplements a^id machinery. This should be 
 carried out according to size of farms, as with the 
 other items. Four more columns should be added 
 under this head : (a) average length of service of the 
 machinery ; (b) its cost per year ; (c) rent paid for 
 itinerant machines ;' (d) total cost of machinery per 
 year. The cost of live-stock and machinery will show 
 
 'Owners of farms of moderate size who can not afford to bviy a 
 costly steam-thrasher or other expensive machine, but have a suffi- 
 ciently large product to give at least a day's work to such a machine, 
 hire it from owners, who rent it to the neighbors for a certain 
 sum. These machines are called itinerant machines. ( Cf. Tenth 
 Census, 3 : 529, folio page. ) 
 
 14 
 
2IO American Economic Association. 
 
 what type of farm has the economic advantage after we 
 take into account the amount of money spent yearly in 
 wages. That brings us to the question of the 
 
 5. Working force employed 071 a fa7'in. Five columns 
 may be arranged under this head : 
 
 (a) Members of the family engaged in work on the 
 farm. 
 
 (b) Number of hired laborers employed. 
 
 (c) Total work-days during the year put in by hired 
 labor. 
 
 (d) Amount expended in wages. 
 
 (e) Average length of employment of a laborer per 
 year. 
 
 A word or two in explanation of this table. In the 
 special investigation undertaken by Professor Brewer in 
 connection with the tenth census, one of the questions in 
 the schedule worked out by him read as follows : " What 
 proportion of the hired labor of the grain farms is hired 
 by the month or year ? What proportion is hired by the 
 day ? " ^ The question, with the word " grain " left out, 
 is practically repeated in the table just suggested. The 
 question of labor and of the expense involved in hiring 
 it is a highly important one. It is claimed that the 
 " bonanza " farm is in a better position than the moder- 
 ate or small farm to conduct its business on the prin- 
 ciples of manufacturing industry. It hires its gangs 
 of laborers for the busy season and discharges them as 
 soon as they are not wanted, leaving but a very small 
 number of men to attend to the live-stock, repairs, etc., 
 during the winter. The small farmer is said to be unable 
 to employ his help in strict conformity with such a system. 
 The table is intended to bring out to what extent that is 
 true of the farms of different sizes. 
 '^Idem, 3 : 430, question 8. 
 
Agriculture. 211 
 
 6. Fertilizers. The same general remarks as to the 
 necessity of giving cost for each group of farms hold true 
 here. The usefulness of a classification like the one pro- 
 posed appears under this head more than elsewhere, 
 as it will give a direct indication where a more inten- 
 sive cultivation prevails. 
 
 An additional table could now be constructed giving 
 absolute and relative yearly cost of machinery, fertilizers, 
 live-stock, and labor, for each of the several groups of 
 farms. 
 
 As to the census classification of farms, it is on the 
 whole excellent. The gradation adopted — farms under 
 ten acres, ten to twenty, twenty to fifty, fifty to one hun- 
 dred, one hundred to five hundred, five hundred to one 
 thousand, one thousand acres and over, — is with one ex- 
 ception very practical, as it takes account of distinct types 
 of farms, neither multiplying unnecessarily the number 
 of groups, nor ignoring important subdivisions. The 
 one exception is the 100-500 acre group. It is well 
 known that a normal type of farm, one which keeps 
 an average family in comfort, furnishing sufficient 
 work to its working members, with perhaps an addi- 
 tional hand or two to be hired, is equal to about 160 
 acres. There can be no denying the fact that the differ- 
 ence between a five hundred acre farm and one con- 
 taining one hundred and fifty acres is too large to allow 
 of their being classed together. The economic and even 
 social status of the owner of the former is quite dif- 
 ferent from that of the latter. In making a study of the 
 ao-ricultural statistics of the tenth and eleventh censuses, 
 the writer found that the group of farms under discussion 
 constituted more than half of all the farms in the North 
 Central and Western divisions in 1890, and that it had 
 increased considerably since 1880. As the 160 acre farm 
 
212 Ainoican Eionomic Association. 
 
 may be justly considered a sort of landmark between the 
 smaller type, which is barel)' sufficient to give enough 
 employment to its owner, and the larger, which represents 
 a purely capitalistic undertaking requiring a consid- 
 erable outlay of capital and employment of labor, it, 
 more than any other group, ought to be singled out in- 
 stead of being merged into a higher one. 
 
 In view of all this, it seems desirable that the group 
 100-500 be subdivided in the twelfth census into two ; 
 one, let us say, of 100-200 acres, and the otlier of 200- 
 500. The only objection which could be urged against 
 such an innovation is that it would make the data in- 
 comparable with those of preceding censuses. But even 
 that could be obviated by constructing an additional 
 column giving the total for tine two subdivisions. It 
 may not be out of place to mention here that the same 
 subdivisions have been adopted in the agricultural sta- 
 tistics of Great Britain.' 
 
 Another serious defect in the eleventh census, due to 
 the fault of the enumerators rather than the statisticians 
 in the Census Office, is the loose way in which farms 
 and their subdivisions have been recorded in the census 
 schedules. In commenting upon the decrease of the 
 number of farms exceeding 500 acres each in the South 
 Central division, Mr. Hj'de, the author of the report 
 on Statistics of Agriculture, remarks: "This maybe 
 due to reporting certain large plantations in one case as 
 single farms and reporting their various subdivisions in 
 the other case as separate holdings." ^ It is plain that, 
 unless a remedy be found for that in the twelfth census, 
 the figures will be worse than useless, they will be mis- 
 leading. And yet there can hardly be a more interest- 
 
 ' See for instance Agricultural Statistics of Ireland for the year 1891 . 
 ^ Eleventh Census. Agriculture, 2. 
 
Agriculture. 213 
 
 ing as well as iinportaut question for the economist than 
 that whether or not the old slave plantations have been 
 crumbling up under the new conditions of southern 
 agriculture. 
 
 It seems that the difficult}- might easily be obviated 
 if the enumerators were instructed to enter upon their 
 schedules, in case of farms rented, only the land held b}- 
 the lessee and not that leased by the lessor. Let us 
 suppose, for illustration, that a farm of six hundred 
 acres is visited. If four hundred acres are cultivated by 
 the owner himself, they are to be entered on the 
 schedule. The two hundred acres will find their way 
 into the census when the lessee is called upon by the 
 enumerator. There could be no repetition under such 
 a system and from the data of two or three censuses we 
 could tell whether the large plantations continued to be 
 cultivated by their owners or v/ere sublet or sold in 
 smaller subdivisions. 
 
 There remains now a word or two to be said upon the 
 method of classification according to mode of tenure. If 
 the suggestions made in this paper were carried out in 
 the main, it v.'ould be better to arrange all the data 
 under the seven (or eiglit as has .been suggested) heads 
 corresponding to size of farms, leaving out the tables 
 arranged according to mode of tenure. Instead of the 
 latter, three columns might be arranged under each of 
 the seven or eight taljles, with the headings, " owned," 
 "rented for share of product," and " rented for fixed 
 money value." One of the advantages to be gained by 
 such a re-arrangement of material would be the doing 
 awa\' with a source of error which among other things 
 revealed itself in the considerable disparit\' in the num- 
 bers of farms recorded in the volumes on Agriculture 
 and on Farms and Homes respectively. The discrep- 
 
214 Avierican Economic Association. 
 
 ancy between the results in the respective volumes can 
 not be entirely explained away, as the writer in the 
 census volume attempts to do, by the fact that the num- 
 ber of owners and the number of farms are not identical. 
 It is due more to the method of classification now 
 referred to. lyct us assume a case of a farmer cultivat- 
 ing a piece of land of one hundred and fifty acres. 
 If one hundred acres are owned by him, and fifty are 
 rented, he would appear twice in the tables of the 
 census: first, under the head of farms "cultivated bv 
 owners" and secondly, under that of "rented." Instead 
 of getting the right conception of a farmer owning a 
 hundred acres and sufficiently prosperous to be able 
 profitably to rent some additional land, which is 
 probably his first step toward a permanent " expansion 
 of his territory," we gain the false impression of two 
 farms one of one hundred acres owned and the other of 
 fifty acres rented. A classification which allows cor- 
 rectly gathered data to be grouped in a way to create 
 such an erroneous impression stands self-condemned. 
 Under the method of classification suggested the figures 
 would more exactly reflect the true state of affairs. 
 The detailed representation of individual farms (if given 
 in the census) would be something like this : 
 
 size of Farm 
 in Acres. 
 
 Owne 1. 
 Acres. 
 
 Reuted for 
 
 fired money 
 
 value. 
 
 Acres. 
 
 Rented for 
 
 share 
 of product. 
 
 Acres. 
 
 150 
 
 100 
 
 50 
 
 
 300 
 
 150 
 
 SO 
 
 100 
 
 250 
 
 250 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 etc. 
 In the general tables for a given geographical division 
 some such form as the following might be adopted : 
 

 
 Agriadture. 
 
 215 
 
 
 
 Number of 
 
 Farms.^ 
 
 
 size of Farms 
 
 Owned. 
 
 Partly owned, 
 
 Rented for fixed 
 
 Rented for share 
 
 in Acres. 
 
 
 partly rented. 
 
 money value. 
 
 of product. 
 
 I0O-20O 
 
 500 
 
 4,000 
 
 569 
 
 214 
 
 200-500 
 
 647 
 
 493 
 
 312 
 
 245 
 
 etc. 
 
 The writer is fully conscious of the shortcomings of 
 the last table. The second column giving farms " partly 
 owned, partly rented " would leave us in the dark as to 
 what particular part of the farms is owned and what 
 rented ; also as to whether it is rented for money or a 
 share of product. But it will at least do away with the 
 heretofore unavoidable multiplication of the number of 
 farms and the other errors incident thereto. Moreover, 
 if desired, some attempt at bringing out the other facts 
 could be made by means of a table constructed on some 
 plan like that of table 4 (see below, p. 218). 
 
 It is greatly to be regretted that the methods which 
 have to be pursued in getting statistics of farm-indebted- 
 ness are of such a nature as to make impossible the 
 gathering of data relating thereto by the census enumer- 
 ator. Were it not for that, our knowledge of agricultural 
 economics would no doubt profit greatly by having these 
 data arranged side by side with the other data given in 
 the volume on Agriculture. The advantage which 
 would be gained from the student's point of view is too 
 obvious to need being pointed out. But I may perhaps 
 be allowed to express a wish that when the data upon 
 mortgage indebtedness are published in the future they 
 be arranged not only by decades and by localities, as has 
 been done in the eleventh census, but also according to 
 size of farms. The latter, like nearly all the other sug. 
 gestions made here, does not call for any additional work 
 
 'The principle is more completely worked out in Table i (see be- 
 low, p. 216). 
 
2i6 American Economic Association. 
 
 in the field, but merely for a more compi-eheusive tabu- 
 lation of data which at present come into the possession 
 
 of the Census Office. 
 
 N. I. Stone. 
 
 Columbia University. 
 
 APPENDIX, 
 
 For the purpose of giving a graphical summary of 
 what has been proposed here, the following tables have 
 been prepared more with the view to indicate the direc- 
 tion in which changes are desirable, than with the idea 
 of making them supplant the old tables in the census 
 volume ; that they are far from any degree of perfection 
 none is more conscious than the author himself. 
 
 A number of useful tables could be prepared in addi- 
 tion to these submitted here, giving the production of 
 various agricultural crops from cereals to cotton and 
 flax by each of the eight groups of farms, just as they 
 are carried out in the eleventh census by states and 
 counties. 
 
 TABLE I. — CtASSiPiCATioN OF Farms by Acreage and Tenure. 
 
 1. Farms under lo acres : 
 
 a. Owned. 
 
 b. Partly owned and partly rented. 
 
 c. Rented for fixed money value. 
 
 d. Rented for share of products. 
 
 Total. 
 
 2. Farms of between lo and 20 acres (similarly classified). 
 
 3. " " 20 and 50 " 
 
 4- " " 50 and 100 " 
 
 5- " " 100 and 200 " 
 6. " " 200 and 500 " 
 7- " " 500 and 1000 " 
 
 8. ' ' 1000 acres and over. 
 
 9. Total number of farms. 
 
Agrimlture. 
 
 217 
 
 TABIyE 2. — Number, Acreage and Valuation of Farms and 
 Products, with Cost of Fertilizers. 
 
 I. Farms under 10 acres : 
 
 > 
 
 Per cent of total acreage. 
 
 Acres under wheat. 
 
 " corn. 
 
 ' ' oats. 
 
 " barley. 
 
 " cotton. 
 
 " green crops. 
 
 " orchard. 
 
 " other crops. 
 Total acres under crops. 
 Per cent unimproved of total acreage. 
 
 Land. 
 
 Fences and buildings. 
 
 Livestock, (a. Working animals, b. Animals kept for other 
 purposes, c. Yearly cost of working animals). 
 
 Implements and machinery, (a. Cost of machinery on hand, 
 b. Average cost of machiner3r per year. c. Rent jjaid for 
 itinerant m.acliines. d. T.^tril cost of machines per j'ear. 
 
 Cost of fertilizers. 
 
 Value of products. 
 
 a. Number of members of farailj' engaged in wox-k on the farm. 
 
 b. Xumbirof hired laborers emploj'ed. 
 
 c. Total number of working days by hired labor during the 
 
 year. 
 
 d. Amount paid in wages during the year. 
 
 e. Average length of employment (in da)'s) rer year. 
 
 The same classification for farms of each group of sizes, as shown in 
 Table i. 
 
 TABLE 3. — Distribution of Yearly Expenditure According 
 TO Size of Farms. ^ 
 
 (Total expenditure of class ^= 100 per cent). 
 
 Farms under 10 acres : 
 
 Per cent of total expenditure for wages. 
 
 " " " for fertilizers. 
 
 " " " for machinery. 
 
 " " " for live stock. 
 
 And so for the farms of various sizes. 
 
 1 Buildings have not been included in this table, as their yearly cost is the 
 resultant of so many uncertain elements that it would be difficult to get any ac- 
 curate returns on that point. 
 
2i8 American Ecotiomic Association. 
 
 TABLE 4. — Farms Partly Owned and Partly Rented. 
 
 a. For fixed money value, or 
 
 b. For share of product. 
 
 I. Farms of less than 10 acres : 
 
 Less than 10 per cent of farm owned. 
 
 10-25 
 
 25-50 
 
 50-75 
 
 75-100 
 
 And so for the farms of various sizes. 
 
Parm and Home Proprietorship and Real Estate Mortgage 
 Indebtedness. 
 
 I. INTRODUCTION. 
 
 A criticism of the work of the eleventh census is 
 especially difficult, because the various parts of the work 
 are of such different quality, and because only those who 
 have had some experience can appreciate the difficulties 
 which lie in the way of a successful transaction of a sta- 
 tistical investigation on so large a scale and of such 
 complexity. No other part of the eleventh census, or 
 of any census, was surrounded with so many difficulties 
 as the inquiry which is reported in the two volumes on 
 Farm and Home Proprietorship and Real Estate Alort- 
 gages. Such an inquiry was entirely novel, at least on 
 so great a scale. Statistics of mortgage indebtedness 
 had, indeed, been gathered by some foreign countries 
 and by the labor bureaus of several states in this country. 
 The most notable of these was, perhaps, that of Mr. J. S. 
 Lord, who, as secretary of the Illinois labor bureau, 
 had made in 1888 an admirable report on mortgages in 
 Illinois.' This report really furnished the model for the 
 method of handling the statistics obtained in the cen- 
 sus inquiry. But no attempt had ever been made before 
 in connection with an}' national census enumeration to 
 cover a subject so vast and so intricate in its details. 
 
 The novelty and lack of precedents were not, how- 
 ever, the only difficulties, especially in the wa)- of get- 
 ting information concerning real estate mortgage indebt- 
 edness. The inquiry was set on foot at the last moment 
 of preparation for taking the census. It concerned mat- 
 
 ' Illinois Labor Statistics Bureau. Fifth Biennial RcpoH. 
 
220 America?! Economic Association . 
 
 ters on which people generally, and Americans par- 
 ticularly, are very averse to giving information. It was 
 denounced as inquisitorial, as prying into private affairs 
 and extending- government authority to the detriment of 
 the individual. So intense was the feeling that some 
 people advised resistance to the Census Office in its at- 
 tempt to get this information. 
 
 Again, the data were of such a character, and the terri- 
 tory to be covered was so large, that it was quite hope- 
 less to expect accurate returns if they were collected in 
 the usual way. The individuals interested could not be 
 trusted togive correcth the facts concerning the existing 
 iudebtedness even if the}' gave them to the best of their 
 knowledge. Incumbrance assumes many guises and 
 exists under many names. To secure a terminology 
 which would be universally applicable and understood 
 wa:; out of the question, and a wide acquaintance with 
 the customs of different sections of the country was nec- 
 essary in order to frame a proper schedule of questions. 
 
 All these diificulties made the task proposed as difficult 
 as its masterly success was brilliant and complete. If it 
 be true, as just now remarked, that no statistical inquiry 
 ever undertaken by any government was more difficult 
 than the collection and proper presentation of the facts 
 of mortgage indebtedness, certainly noue has ever been 
 carried to conclusion " with more skillful care and 
 conscientious fidelity." Its success far exceeded the 
 expectation of statisticians who had studied such matters 
 for year.s. The value of the information obtained well 
 repaid the expense of getting it, and has probably recon- 
 ciled the people to a renewal of the effort. A brief review 
 of the means taken to get the data wanted will bring out 
 clearly both the difficulties and the way in which they 
 were met. 
 
Farm and Home Proprietorship. 221 
 
 As has been already said it Avas at the last moment of 
 preparation that Congress directed the CensTis Office to 
 undertake these investigations. For several reasons it 
 was decided not to entrust the work entirely to the regu- 
 lar enumerators, but to reh' upon several sources of 
 information. This vv'as a wise decision. Only the less 
 objectionable questions concerning ownership and debt 
 were put upon the population schedule.' These were as 
 follows : 
 
 " Is tlie hom.e you live in hired, or is it owned by the 
 head or by a member of the family? 
 
 If owned by the lieid or a member of the family, is 
 the home free from mortgage incumbrance? 
 
 If the head of the family is a farmer, is the farm which 
 he cultivates hired, or is it owned by him or by a mem- 
 ber of his family ? 
 
 If owned by the head or a member of the family, is 
 the farm free from mortgage incumbrance ? 
 
 If the home or farm is owned by the head or a mem- 
 ber of the family, and mortgaged, give the post office 
 address of the owner." 
 
 The cases in which the enumerators failed to get 
 answers vv'ere investigated through the mail and by 
 means of special agents. The results were gratifyingly 
 complete. Of the total farm families only 1.24 per cent 
 were not heard from on the question of ownership, and 
 of the home families only 2.25 per cent ; while the 
 determination of the fact of incumbrance was unsuc- 
 cessful for 1.26 per cent of the farm owning families 
 and for 2.10 per cent of the home owning families. As 
 to the amount of incumbrance, 18.35 P^^^ ^^"^^ o^ ^^^ 
 farm owning families and 25.98 per cent of the home 
 
 ' Eleventh Census. Population, i : ccv, Inquiries 26-30. 
 
222 American Economic Association. 
 
 owning families were not heard from.' In other words, 
 the returns are practically complete for ownership and 
 for the fact of incumbrance. 
 
 In deciding upon the plan of investigation into mort- 
 gage indebtedness similar skill and wisdom were shown. 
 Consideration of the plan adopted will be entered on 
 later. Meantime it should be noted that the work was 
 very thoroughly done. As the superintendent of the 
 census put it, " the agents of the Census Office have . . . 
 overhauled the records in every state and territory. 
 They have travelled on horseback and on foot through 
 the most sparsely settled districts of our vast domain in 
 search of mortgages, and have done their work so in- 
 dustriously and so thoroughly that we now have on file 
 in Washington as a result of their labor the abstracts of 
 about nine million mortgages."* 
 
 In short, the volumes under consideration are easily 
 among the best portions of the census. They show 
 painstaking conscientiousness in the manipulation of 
 the data, a thorough knowledge of the proper methods 
 of approaching the subject, an appreciative sense of the 
 difficulties and defects, and a skilled knowledge of the 
 necessary methods. An examination of the first few 
 pages of either volume furnishes strong proof that the 
 editors have in a high degree what may be called a 
 sense of statistical propriety. For there we find, what 
 is too rare in census reports, a full account of the 
 history of the projects to collect the statistics, a recital 
 of the instructions to enumerators, a detailed statement 
 of the methods employed in the tabulation, and a num- 
 ber of other details explanatory of the technicalities 
 employed in marshalling the returns for analysis. The 
 
 ^ Eleventh Censiis. Farms and Homes. 7. 
 -Am. Stat. Ass'n. Publications 2 : 356 (1891). 
 
Farm and Home Proprietorship. 223 
 
 presentation of these matters is very helpful to the 
 reader in forming a critical judgment of the volumes. 
 
 The work is, then, of a high grade of excellence, and 
 there is but little room for important criticism. In 
 addition to the advantage derived from the peculiar 
 suitableness of the editors for their work the inquiry 
 had the benefit derived from a high grade of special 
 agents. They seem to have been, in the main, men 
 picked especially for the collection of the statistics of 
 mortgages. These reflections lead to one or two com- 
 ments of a general character : 
 
 II. CHARACTERISTICS OF THE TWO VOLUMES CON- 
 SIDERED TOGETHER. 
 
 1. The investigation into the subjects under review 
 was so highly successful that it should, by all means, be 
 repeated. After the experience recorded in these two 
 volumes there can be no doubt, as indeed the editors 
 themselves point out, that the facts sought can be 
 ascertained accurately and with a high degree of com- 
 pleteness. Commissioner Carroll D. Wright said as 
 long ago as 1887 : " Questions of renting, of ownership, of 
 the acreage of farms and of alien ownership are entirely 
 within the possibilities of census taking, without enlarg- 
 ing the field of operation." We may now add that the 
 feasibilit}' of collecting mortgage statistics on a large 
 scale is also demonstrated. 
 
 2. The same editors should be in charge of the next 
 investigation, and, as far as possible, the same special 
 agents. This is a matter in which experience counts 
 for a great deal. If the inquiry is committed to the 
 same management as before, the country may reasonably 
 hope for an improvement in the work. If it is en- 
 trusted to new editors, however able they may be to cor. 
 
224 American Economic Association. 
 
 rect any mistakes of their predecessors, they will surely 
 waste time and impair the work h\ having to learn 
 lessons which the previous editors already know. 
 IMoreover, it is absolutely essential that this and kin- 
 dred portions of the census be kept absoliitely free from 
 the suspicion that they are being used for any but 
 scientific purposes and the promotion of the public 
 good. 
 
 3. Fault might be found with the bulk of the volumes. 
 It is a question whether all the important information of 
 the two could not have been presented in one volume by 
 judicious grouping of related data. This criticism is not 
 of much weight except in so far as it is based on a plea 
 either that such conbinations of figures could be made, 
 or that part of the matter included in the reports is 
 unnecessary or fails to teach anything of importance. 
 That the latter is to a certain extent true may be illus- 
 trated by reference, for example, to the volume on 
 proprietorship.' The reader has just been occupied with 
 a discussion of the relation of building and loan associa- 
 tions to home ownership and is transferred — without 
 break — to "sales of real estate in Massachusetts" in 
 order to learn the frequency with which the land changes 
 hands. The statistics quoted from Massachusetts are so 
 meagre and throw so little light on the sirbject that they 
 are of very little value for the purpose and might as well 
 be omitted. This is all the more true because the census 
 itself has no figures with which to supplement those from 
 Alassachusetts. 
 
 4. A more important, and perhaps better founded, 
 criticism may, however, be directed to another point. 
 The various groupings of the returns follow one another 
 without sufficient pains being taken to correlate them 
 
 ' Eleventh Census. Farm and Home Proprietorship, 52, f. 
 
Farm and Home Proprietorship . 225 
 
 when they are related, or to mark clearly the transition 
 from one to another when they are not closely related. 
 The transition is too abrupt. Both volumes would be 
 greatly improved if they each had, first, a short summary 
 of the conclusions to be drawn from each grouping of the 
 figures, — that is, from each set of tables ; and, secondly, 
 a general, but not too condensed summarj' of the main 
 results of the whole investigation. For example, we find 
 in the report on mortgage indebtedness coordinate pre- 
 sentations of the following topics : — (i) the ratio of mort- 
 gage indebtedness to the true value of all taxed real 
 estate ; (2) a comparison of incumbrance with the value 
 of the mortgaged acres ; (3) a comparison of incumbrance 
 with selling price ; (4) a comparison of incumbrance 
 with farm value, per acre. A better arrangement would 
 be to make a general head of " the relation of incum- 
 brance to value," and put the others as sub-topics. In 
 this way their relations would be clearer, comparison 
 would be easier, and the presentation could be made 
 more concise. If a similar plan were followed wherever 
 possible, and the suggested summaries of the principal 
 results made, the volumes would doubtless be more ser- 
 viceable to the average user of them. They present a 
 kind of pathless wilderness of figures. A few pathways 
 cut through them would introduce the orderliness of the 
 well planned grove into the natural forest. 
 
 5. The diagrammatic presentation is, perhaps, unnec- 
 essarily profuse. Graphic representation of facts is, of 
 course, sometimes necessary and nearly always helpful, 
 especially if the statistics in a tabular arrangement do 
 not readily and clearly show the relationships which 
 they are intended to bring out. Numerous diagrams of 
 
 15 
 
226 Americati Economic Association. 
 
 the character of those given here are more desirable in 
 volumes with a wide popular circulation.^ 
 
 III. THE VOLUME ON PROPRIETORSHIP AND INDEBTED- 
 NESS OF FARMS AND HOMES. 
 
 The volume opens, as has already been pointed out, 
 with a history of the movement which led to the investi- 
 gation, a description of the plan for collecting the 
 statistics, and an outline of the scope of the inquiry. 
 This is followed first by the presentation and analysis of 
 the facts of proprietorship, the word being used in the 
 legal sense to include botli owners and tenants, and then 
 by the discussion of value and incumbrance and the 
 interest on incumbrance. The next eighty pages are 
 devoted to a description of the proprietors and lastly 
 come the general tables, which occupy the second half 
 of the volume. 
 
 Terminology. — The first question one asks in consider- 
 ing such a work as this is : Was the inquiry worth while ? 
 In the case of this investigation the question has special 
 significance because of the fact that the same ground is 
 already partly covered in another way by another por- 
 tion of the census. The statistics of agriculture include 
 the number of farms and their proprietorship. In that 
 case the farm is the unit of investigation ; in the present 
 work, the family. Again, the statistics of population 
 include a report on dwellings and families which pre- 
 sents for a portion of the subject, data of the same gen- 
 eral kind as are given in the volume under discussion. 
 In the one case the dwelling is the unit ; in the other, 
 
 'As an illustration of such, matter which adds but little to the worth 
 of the report may be mentioned the diagrams which face page 122 of 
 the volume on mortgages. However, this again, is a comparatively 
 small matter, and is mentioned only in behalf of brevity. 
 
Far-in and Home Proprietorship . 227 
 
 the family. There is therefore in these various investi- 
 gations more or less duplication of work and of results. 
 While there may be some question whether all the 
 necessary information concerning ownership and in- 
 debtedness could not have been gotten by the enumera- 
 tion of " farms " and " dwellings and families," there is 
 none, in the opinion of the reviewer, concerning the de- 
 sirability of presenting that information in the form in 
 which it is given in this volume, — that is to say, with 
 the family as a unit. The value for sociological pur- 
 poses of such a mode of presentation is very great. 
 Whatever objection that unit is open to — and it is open 
 to much — it is a better unit for estimating the economic 
 and social conditions of the average American than an 
 area called a farm, which may vary in extent from 5 
 acres to 1,000, and in value from $50 to $75,000 ; and 
 for similar reasons better too, as a unit, than the 
 " dwelling. " 
 
 Although, however, the sociological advantage of pre- 
 senting the data with the famil}- as a unit is very great, 
 objection may be made to the meaning of the term as 
 defined in the census. A reader seeking information 
 about the distribution of wealth would naturally turn to 
 this volume in order to learn something about the 
 ownership of property by individuals and families, as 
 these words are familiarly used. Unfortunately, how- 
 ever, the editors of the report were hampered by having 
 to use as a unit the term family in a technical sense 
 already fixed for them by the census reports on popula- 
 tion. Whatever fault is to be found with this use of the 
 
 word, the editors cannot, therefore, be charged with it.' 
 It is to be regretted that a classification of families was 
 
 'For the definition of a family in the Instructions to Enumerators, 
 1890, see above p. 62. 
 
228 American Economic Association. 
 
 not given in connection with the figures on ownership. 
 Such a classification as was made in the census of Mass- 
 achusetts' in 1895 would have added much to the value 
 of the work under discussion for all who looked to it for 
 light on the matter of prosperity of our people. The 
 Massachusetts report classifies families according to the 
 number of persons in them, and gives the number of 
 each class. For example, in North Adams we find that 
 there were 550 families containing two persons each ; 
 348 containing seven persons each, etc' Of course, the 
 addition of such a classification of " owning and occupy- 
 ing families " would increase the work of gathering 
 and handling the returns, but not to any great extent, 
 since such a classification is made for other purposes. 
 At any rate much would be gained even if the classifica- 
 tion were carried only so far as to enumerate occupants 
 of hotels, almshouses, etc., by themselves so that they 
 could be excluded from the total in calculating the per- 
 centages of owning families, etc. To be sure, " con- 
 sidered as regards great bodies of population the pres- 
 ence of these large ' census families ' does not probably 
 have any very appreciable effect on the average size of 
 the normal familj'."' But it must vitiate the statistics 
 for small political units, perhaps in some cases, for 
 whole states. 
 
 Instructions to Enumerators. — There are several points 
 in the instructions* on which there is at least room 
 
 ^ Mass. Census of 1895, i : 339-455. 
 
 '^ Idem, I : 387. 
 
 ^ Eleventh Census. Population, i : clxxxviii.^ ' [Normal families 
 and artificial or arbitrary families such as hotels, prisons, schools, 
 camps, etc., were distinguished by the Mass. censuses of 1885 and 
 1895. The average size of the normal families was 4.45 persons 
 in 18S5 and 4.57 in 1895. The average size of all families was only .13 
 persons larger in 1885 and .08 persons larger in 1895. — W. F. W.] 
 
 * Eleventh Census. Farms and Homes, 5. 
 
Farm and Home Proprietorship. 229 
 
 for a difference of opinion. The third one reads : 
 " If a person owns and cultivates wliat has been two or 
 more farms and all are not mortgaged, the several farms 
 are to be counted as one farm and as mortgaged." If 
 we remember that the unit of investigation is the family, 
 this instruction is correct so far as it guards against the 
 duplication of families in the returns. But when we 
 come to consider the value and incumbrance of the farms 
 reported as occupied by their owners, there is danger 
 that obedience to this instruction may have swelled the 
 figures in such a wa)- as to be misleading. There are 
 cases in the middle vi^est in which a man who lives in 
 town owns a farm which he supervises, leaving the 
 immediate care to a salaried superintendent. The owner 
 cultivates but does not occupy. He cannot be included 
 among owning occupiers or among hiring occupiers. 
 For the purpose of getting the total value of farms, the 
 case is not different, if the owner lives on and cultivates 
 one farm and owns and cultivates another in the manner 
 described. The result of "lumping" the farms is that 
 it swells the value of the owned and occupied farms and 
 diminishes the apparent relative burden of incumbrance. 
 In the seventh instruction we read : " If the same person 
 ov/ns and cultivates one farm and hires and cultivates 
 another farm, he is to be entered upon the schedule as 
 owning the farm he cultivates." In this case the hired 
 farm would seem not to appear in the valuation of hired 
 and occupied farms ; while in the case previoush' 
 described the farms owned and cultivated but not occu- 
 pied would, as said, go to sv/ell the total value of the 
 owned and occupied farms. The result would be to 
 diminish the total value of the hired and occupied farms 
 relatively to the owned and occupied. It would seem 
 that if the hired^ cultivated, but not occupied farms 
 
230 American Economic Association. 
 
 were not included in the sum of the values, the owjied, 
 cultivated, but not occupied farms should also have been 
 excluded. Several of the instructions are so framed 
 that while they avoid duplication of persons and families 
 they either increase or diminish according to circum- 
 stances the value and incumbrance. 
 
 CRITICISM OF RESULTS PRESENTED. 
 
 Scope of the inquiry : — The purpose of the inquirj' 
 in the last resort, could be only to throw more light on 
 the economic condition of our people. It is unfortunate, 
 therefore, that its scope was not somewhat wider. 
 Especially in the portion relating to value and incum- 
 brance, the statistics are defective for any characteriza- 
 tion of the welfare of the people of the country. No 
 values are given for the homes of tenants nor for unin- 
 cumbered homes occupied by owners ; and on the other 
 hand the incumbrance that is taken account of is that 
 on farms and homes which are occupied by their own- 
 ers. No account is taken of the incumbrance on hired 
 farms and homes. The decision thus to limit tlie scope 
 of the work makes the results obtained an imperfect 
 guide for determining welfare. The report furnishes no 
 means whereby we may know " whether hired farms are 
 less or more valuable than those tliat are owned, nor 
 whether farms and homes occupied by owners free of 
 incumbrance are less or more valuable than those that 
 are occupied by owners subject to incumbrance." To 
 be sure, the report on mortgage indebtedness largely 
 covers the omission, but this fact is perhaps to be re- 
 garded rather as a reason for the collation of the reports 
 in one volume than as a reason for the omission of the 
 information in the volume under review. The absence 
 
Farm and Home Proprietorship. 231 
 
 of the information mentioned very largely impairs the 
 interest of that portion of the report which deals with 
 value and incumbrance. The other topics are presented 
 with sufficient completeness. Aluch praise is due the 
 editors for the judgment displayed in the selection of 
 modes of grouping their information to bring out vari- 
 ous conclusions. Especially valuable for their socio- 
 logical teachings are the comparative tables of pro- 
 prietorship in cit)- and country, and between cities of 
 different population, the record of the purposes of incum- 
 brance, and the discussion of the character of the pro- 
 prietors. 
 
 Ownership and Industrial Classification. — The group- 
 ing of the returns showing proprietorship of homes in 
 cities according to their population might well have 
 been supplemented with a short table giving the figures 
 for cities of similar size but different industrial and 
 social character in various parts of the country. For 
 example, a comparison of proprietorship in a city like 
 Lawrence, Mass., with that of sucli places as Peoria, 
 111., and Lincoln, Xeb., should throw some light on the 
 comparative progress of the industrial and social classes 
 which predominate in these different places. It would 
 furnish some answer to the question what classes in the 
 community constitute most largely the home owners. 
 It is not infrequently said in some places that the wage 
 earners are to a large extent the owners of their homes. 
 While this is true in certain localities it is probably very 
 far from the truth in most. In the absence of statistics 
 for the separate industrial classes such a comparison as 
 is suggested would help to answer the question. Ac- 
 cording to a statement in the report it was at first 
 planned to gather the data for the separate classes, but 
 the expense was prohibitive. 
 
232 American Economic Association. 
 
 Ownership and Density of Population. — The discuss- 
 ion of the relation between farm tenancy and density of 
 population is in some respects obscure because of the 
 varying size of the farms/ This is a defect in Table 16. 
 A comparison might fairly be made between places in 
 which the owners cultivate farms of about the same 
 size. No fair comparison of density of population in 
 different places can be made unless the areas are approx- 
 imately equal. A comparison, for example, of the ratios 
 between tenancy or proprietorship and density of popu- 
 lation in states like Arizona and Illinois can hardly be 
 of much value. For, in the first place, as already re- 
 marked, the areas are not equal ; and, in the second 
 place, tlie whole extent of one state is available for 
 occupancj' while of the otlier only a portion is habitable. 
 In presenting the returns groupings are made to illus- 
 trate some points which are hardly important enough to 
 be elaborated. One of these has already been men- 
 tioned, namely, the record of land sales in Massachu- 
 setts. The remark applies with more or less force to 
 the treatment of farm and home purchase as financial 
 operations.^ 
 
 Ownership and Loan Associations. — A discussion is 
 given of the relation of proprietorship to the prevalence 
 of building and loan associations.^ Its purpose is to 
 throw light upon the question whether the ownership of 
 homes has been especially dependent on the establish- 
 ment of these associations or whether homes would 
 have been acquired had there been no associations of 
 this sort. In order to determine this point we need 
 figures showing whether, in places where building and 
 loan associations are prevalent and borrowers numerous, 
 
 ' Idetn, 41, f. 
 
 ^Idem, 42, 47. 
 
 ^ Idem, 47-51. 
 
Farm and Home Proprietorship . 233 
 
 the percentage of home-owning families is high ; and 
 also whether, in places of similar social character but 
 without building and loan associations, the percentage 
 of home-owning families is small. The tables give us 
 only the percentage of home families occupying hired 
 homes, the number of borrowers, and the percentage of 
 borrowers of families. They cannot, therefore, be of 
 much help in settling the question, for, in the first 
 place, there are too many other sources whence intend- 
 ing home builders can now secure loans, and these 
 sources are altogether unknown both as to character 
 and amount ; and, in the second place, building and 
 loan associations are as likely to be a result as a cause of 
 demand for hou.ses, and they would be established in a 
 community'' where they were not already in existence, 
 only when other sources of loans were absent or strictly 
 conditioned. 
 
 Tenancy and Sales. — In passing it may be noticed 
 incidentally that tables like the one given, showing 
 the average population to each deed of real estate 
 in Massachusetts from 1880 to 1889,' really show us 
 nothing as to the high or low degree of tenancy. It 
 is argued that " if real estate changes ownership in- 
 frequently, the inference may be either that the real 
 estate is so cheap as to be undesirable or else so 
 valuable as to be beyond the reach of the masses of 
 the people with respect to ownership. On the other 
 hand, if the transfers are frequent the inference may 
 be that the ownership of real estate is easily obtain- 
 able."^ But investments in real estate depend on 
 other causes than the desire of people to own their own 
 homes. They depend, for example, on the rates of re- 
 
 ^ Idetn, 53, Table 21. 
 '' Idein, 52. 
 
234 American Eco7iornic Associatio7i. 
 
 turn from other investments ; on the general condition 
 of business ; and, possibly, on peculiar local conditions, 
 which may or may not make real estate ownership 
 profitable. For these reasons it is doubtful whether 
 the table deserves even the small space assigned to it. 
 
 Interest. — Still further, it is very doubtful whether 
 the facts presented under the head of interest charge 
 are very reliable. " Tlie rates were reported mostl)- by 
 the debtors, except that reports were obtained mostly 
 from county officers in Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, 
 Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Caro- 
 lina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and 
 Virginia," — that is, in one-fourth of the states of the 
 country.' The question called for the actual rate of 
 interest or " what the use of the money has cost regard- 
 less of what the contract may specify." In the opinion 
 of the editors, if there is any error in the report of the 
 interest rate it is a failure to make it as high as it 
 really is. Their ground for this belief is that " mort- 
 gage contracts are often somewhat complicated in 
 respect to the rate of interest, and all debtors have not 
 education enough to enable them to compute the real 
 rate of interest borne by the contract as distinguished 
 from the standard rate under the law of the state."^ 
 Where the interest was not given, the editors applied 
 the average for the neighborhood ; where the principal 
 of the debt was obviously too large, they deducted an 
 amount equal to what the interest would have been on 
 the basis of the rate prevalent in the neighborhood. It 
 is probably a fact that debtors in attempting to give 
 " what the money has cost " regardless of the stipulated 
 rate of interest, would assign a figure too high, for men 
 
 ^ Idem, 103. 
 ■"Ibid. 
 
Farm and Hovie Proprietorship . 235 
 
 tend to exaggerate such burdens. In many transac- 
 tions, moreover, there would be no payment of the 
 nature of interest, yet interest would be virtuall}- paid. 
 In some parts of the south, for example, farmers give 
 mortgages on their farms, sometimes on their crops, to 
 merchants in order to secure advances. They really 
 pay their interest in higher prices, and reliable infor- 
 mation shows that these prices range all the waj- from 
 thirty to one hundred per cent higher than they would 
 be if the customers were not in debt to the merchants. 
 This statement applies to real estate mortgages as well 
 as to certain other forms of incumbrance. Of course 
 these draw-backs or defects are not a reason wh)' an 
 effort should not be made to determine the actual rate 
 of interest regardless of the contract rate, but they show 
 that the effort must be performed with great caution 
 and that however carefully it is done it is likely to be 
 considerably wide of the truth. The various modes of 
 presenting the facts about interest charges seem to cover 
 the ground very thoroughly. 
 
 Description of Proprietors. — Not the least interesting 
 part of this whole report is the detailed description of 
 proprietors.' The main divisions of the presentation are 
 by color, place of birth, age aud sex. The value of this 
 portion of the work would be very much enhanced by- 
 such a summary as has already been suggested, for the 
 multiplicity of different details is really bewildering. 
 
 The record of incumbrance is seriously affected by the 
 failure to secure adequate information on crop liens. 
 We are told that " the enumerators vi'ere instructed to 
 regard crop liens as incumbrances on farms, but they 
 overlooked the instruction, with hardly an exception, in 
 the districts where crop liens were in force." " It is to 
 
 ' Idem, 163-242. 
 '^ Idem, 14. 
 
236 American Ecotiomic Assodaiion. 
 
 be hoped that this defect will be remedied in another in- 
 vestigation. In this connection it should be noted that 
 all data of indebtedness other than debts of record are 
 likely to be of doubtful value unless very carefully in- 
 vestigated. 
 
 Reports of values by public officials and by owners 
 had to be relied upon very frequently. It might be 
 possible in many cases to check such replies by getting 
 a record of recent sales in the neighborhood. This 
 would add but little to the labor of the enumerators. 
 In conclusion it is scarcely necessary to say that the 
 logical soundness of methods adopted for the calculation 
 of averages, wherever that has been necessary to supply 
 the places of unknown quantities, is unimpeachable and 
 the mathematical accuracy of the operations is admir- 
 able. Careful search has failed to discover any error of 
 importance. 
 
 IV. REAL ESTATE MORTGAGES. 
 
 Value of Investigation. — Seldom has any piece of 
 statistical work been put forth of so high an order of 
 merit as this volume. It is superior in the skill of its 
 plan and execution to the work of the volume on farm 
 and home proprietorship. The difficulties surrounding 
 the acquisition of tlie data were more numerous and 
 serious than in the case of the other volume ; and the 
 statistical skill shown in their manipulation is, if any- 
 thing, greater. Several of the general criticisms which 
 have been made are applicable to this report as well as 
 to the other. There is not much room for criticism 
 either of the statistical method employed or of the details 
 of their application. Some points, however, must be 
 noticed. 
 
Farm ajid Home Proprietorship . 237 
 
 Scope and Plan. — This volume gives a more complete 
 return of the landed indebtedness than does the report 
 on proprietorship because it includes incumbrance not 
 onlj' on farms and homes occupied by their owners, but 
 also on those occupied b}' tenants. The introduction 
 describes the plan of investigation. A brief account is 
 given of the several methods of inquiry into this subject, 
 which have been made at various times and in various 
 places, in order to set forth the merit of the plan finally 
 adopted. That plan was to investigate real estate 
 mortgages for the whole country, to find the mortgage 
 movement diiring the preceding ten years by counties, 
 the average life of mortgages, etc. The time available 
 for the prosecution of the inquiry was so short that inves- 
 tigation by special agents was impossible, even if the 
 expense of that method had not put it out of the question. 
 The public records, therefore, had to be chosen as the 
 main source of information. Obviously, however, these 
 could not be relied on. In order to secure a check upon 
 them, one hundred and two counties in various parts of 
 the country were selected, and in these the amount of 
 indebtedness was determined both from the public records 
 and by personal inquiry. The proportion of error shown 
 by the accurately determined returns, in the public rec- 
 ords of these one hundred and two counties was used as a 
 basis for correcting the errors of the record for the whole 
 country. The success of the inquiry is very gratifying 
 not only because of the interest attaching to the work, 
 but because it has at last demonstrated, in the words of 
 the editors, " that a statistical office in the United States 
 .... can determine the amount of the existing ' re- 
 corded indebtedness of private corporations and individ- 
 uals ' by direct methods, as certainly for crop liens, 
 
238 American Ecojiomic Associatioji. 
 
 chattel mortgages, judgments, etc., as for real estate 
 mortgages." 
 
 To a clear understanding of tlie work of the volume it 
 is necessary to explain briefly the process of establishing 
 the amount of existing debt. If the same number of 
 mortgages were made every year, the debt incurred 
 within a period equal to the average life of the mortgages 
 would be the actual debt at any given date. But the 
 conditions are not uniform. Different numbers of 
 mortgages are made every year. In order to get a 
 mathematically representative mortgage we must have 
 an equation of the time with the debt incurred. For 
 instance, " a mortgage for $500 enduring for five years, 
 and one for $1000 enduring for two years, are equivalent 
 to one mortgage of $1500 enduring for three years, 
 when an equation of time and debt is established." ' 
 When we have determined the life of mortgage debt for 
 a section we are able to say that one mortgage equal to 
 the sum of all the mortgages actually made during each 
 year, was made at a certain time of the year to endure 
 for the period of average life of mortgages. At any given 
 time, therefore, the existing mortgage debt, if no partial 
 payments are made, is the sum of the debts incurred dur- 
 ing the average life period, exclusive of those left unpaid 
 from preceding life periods. The amount to be allowed 
 on the average for partial payments was ascertained in 
 the one hundred and two counties before mentioned. 
 " The process then .... consists simply in deducting 
 from the original amoimt of the mortgages made during 
 a period equal to the average life of mortgages in each 
 county the amount of the partial payments made on all 
 existing mortgages.^ 
 
 1 Eleventh Census. Real Estate Mortgages, 15. 
 '^ Idem, 16. 
 
Farm and Home Proprietorship . 239 
 
 Results Presented. — Before proceeding to discuss the 
 application of this method and its errors, we must review 
 briefly the field covered. The first presentation of re- 
 turns is the mortgage movement for ten years, showing 
 the variations in the number and amount of real estate 
 mortgages in various connections. Separate classifica- 
 tion is made of state and railroad contracts, and mort- 
 gages are classified by their amounts. The data are used 
 to get certain averages which are applied to the various 
 states and territories by years to shov/ the normal vari- 
 ation.' The next topic presented is the amount of mort- 
 gage indebtedness in force on January t, 1890, and the 
 increase in mortgage debt from time to time.^ This is 
 followed by a comparison of the mortgage indebtedness 
 with the total value of real estate." Various relations 
 are ascertained between mortgages and population,* and 
 the subject of interest is then taken up at great length ^ 
 A detailed account of the special investigation in the 
 one hundred and two counties, the data for which were 
 accurately ascertained, is given," and followed by a 
 short account of mortgages in foreign countries.'' Four 
 pages are then devoted to a summary of the results,' a 
 feature which greatly increases the value of the volume. 
 
 Criticism of Application of Mathematical Theory. — 
 
 Let us return now to a consideration of the plan adopted 
 
 for the establishment of the amount of the existing 
 
 mortgage debt. Although the process as explained is 
 
 mathematically correct, there are certain conditions 
 
 ^Ideni, 25-84. 
 ''■ Idein, 87-111. 
 ^ Ide-m, 115-152 
 ''Idem, 157-16, 
 ^ Idem, 167-265 
 "Idem. 269-295 
 ' Idem, 299-305 
 '^ Idem, 309-313 
 
240 American Econo?nic Association. 
 
 which interfere with its accuracy when it is applied. 
 The life of mortgages as shown by the records does not 
 tally with their true life, allowance has to be made for 
 partial payments, and there is great variation in differ- 
 ent places, both in the number and amount of mort- 
 gages made from year to year. " Where the number 
 and amount of mortgages made each year are small and 
 highly variable," a large percentage of error may ap- 
 pear in computing the amount of tlie existing debt' 
 There is no way of obviating this, but for areas larger 
 than a state the error cannot be very great. In order to 
 determine the allowance to be made for partial pay- 
 ments, reliance was made upon the returns received 
 from the one hundred and two selected cotmties. The 
 investigators ascertained the debt actually on the 
 records in these counties, and then compnted the debt 
 for the same date by the mathematical method before 
 described. They then found the difference, and the 
 " percentage of error of excess or deficiency of computed 
 debt " which this difference represented." The theory 
 was that there would be practically as many errors in 
 the over-estimation of values as in the under-estimation, 
 and that these over-valuations and under-valuations 
 would practically off-set one another, so that the average 
 error between the computed and recorded values of 
 mortgages in these one hundred and two counties could 
 be applied to the various states and to the whole coun- 
 try. The theory of course is sound, but the practical 
 value of the method depends, in the last resort, on the 
 number of cases from which the average error is de- 
 duced. It is not enough to have a series of instances in 
 which the errors of excess or deficiency in the computed 
 
 1 Idem, 16. 
 
 ^ Idem, 17, ff. Table i. 
 
Farm and Home Proprietorship . 241 
 
 debt off -set one another ; regard must be had also to the 
 amount of variation between the different percentages 
 of error. The larger the off-setting percentages are, 
 even although they exactly off-set one another, the less 
 reliable is the resulting average for application to un- 
 known cases. A close determination of the mean error 
 would theoretically require a very large number of 
 cases and it is of course impracticable to secure this. 
 Still, a number larger than one hundred and two is de- 
 sirable. A number of counties not less than five for 
 each state, should be chosen so distributed that they 
 will represent the variations in the industrial conditions 
 of the state. 
 
 Moreover, the more variable the total incumbrances 
 (that is, the larger the differences between them) whose 
 percentages of error off-set one another, the less reliable 
 is the resulting average. For a small incumbrance in 
 one or two of the sample counties may be representative 
 of the majority and yet be over-balanced by another of 
 the sample counties with a high total value and a high 
 percentage of error, or vice versa. In other words, 
 if we use only two counties in the state, the error in a 
 county with a large value and debt practically deter- 
 mines the error for the state, even if the error of counties 
 with small value and debt would be more representative 
 of the majority of its counties. Indiana, for example, 
 shows an error of only — 2.69 per cent on lots, and yet 
 the different counties show errors varying from — 39-59 
 to + 18.03. I'-^ every case where the selected counties 
 yield such a result, the test should be extended to two 
 or three other counties in the state. 
 
 Still further, the counties chosen should not be too 
 near one another. Those selected for Alabama are open 
 
 16 
 
242 Atnericaii Economic Association. 
 
 to criticism in this respect as well as on the point just 
 discussed for Indiana. The two counties selected in 
 that state are Green and Jefferson. They are separated 
 only by one county, Tuscaloosa. The average value of 
 the farm acre in Jefferson is given as $10.81 and in Green 
 as $5.55- There are only two counties in the state with 
 an acre value of |io or more, while there are thirty- 
 seven with an acre value of less than $5.55. Unless 
 care is exercised to meet the conditions described, the 
 average error is very likely to be unreliable not only for 
 separate counties but for a whole state. 
 
 Various Points. — The results obtained are admirably 
 presented. Perhaps the most interesting portions are 
 " A Decade of Mortgages ", showing the mortgage 
 movement from 1880; the "Interest on Mortgage 
 Debt " ; and the results of the " Special Investigations 
 in One Hundred and Two Counties." The presentation 
 of mortgages in relation to real estate value and area is 
 open to the same criticism that was made on the parallel 
 presentation in the volume on farms and homes. The 
 topical arrangement of this division is bad because the 
 headings are not properly subordinated, and the lessons 
 to be derived from the data are not of very great value. 
 The principal reason for this is to be found, of course, 
 in the fact that but little reliance can be placed upon the 
 reputed values of acres and of lots. This fact is recog- 
 nized, so far as lots are concerned, and no attempt is 
 made to establish their value. The effort to do so for 
 acres is aided, in this case, by the fact that there were 
 available some data showing the average price of an acre 
 sold for a series of years in Ohio, and for sundry years 
 in Illinois, Minnesota and Wisconsin. The effort to 
 present a proportion between mortgage indebtedness 
 
Farm and Home Proprietorship . 243 
 
 and selling price is based on a more solid foundation, 
 for records of recent sales are not very difficult to get. 
 
 A word may be said about the admirable series of 
 averages presented for amounts of mortgages, the life of 
 mortgages, rates of interest, etc. It is not uncommonly 
 said that an average is of little value because it is so 
 likely to be merely typical. This is by no means to be 
 taken as a matter of course, as Mr. Holmes has shown 
 in another place.^ The averages here mentioned, espe- 
 cially for interest rates, are really valuable and repre- 
 sentative. 
 
 Of as little reliability as the figures showing the rela- 
 tions between acre values and mortgages are also, to a 
 large extent, those dealing with population and mort- 
 gages. The table, showing the number of persons to a 
 mortgage,^ is of little use. The point of interest is to 
 determine the burden of mortgages. That depends on 
 the number of mortgages, the number of mortgagees, 
 the value of the property, and the amount of the mort- 
 gage. The proportion of population to number of 
 mortgages tells us little, if anything, about this btirden. 
 If the rate of increase of the population is greater than 
 that of mortgages the change in the burden of indebted- 
 ness is not shown by the percentages given. The table 
 would have been more valuable if it had shown the 
 percentage of growth of mortgage indebtedness per 
 capita as compared with the percentage of growth of 
 population for a series of years. 
 
 There is really little else in the volume to criticise. 
 It would be an improvement if the summary of results 
 had been extended. A four page resume of so large a 
 volume is too condensed to be of much value. 
 
 'Am. Stat. Ass'n. Publications 2 : 421 (1891). 
 ' Real Estate Mortgages, 158. 
 
244 American Eco7i07nic Association. 
 
 Future investigations should secure information about 
 crop liens. These in the south take the place of real 
 estate mortgages, and the real burden of the debt among 
 the farming class in that section of the country is not 
 shown in the report because of the omission of data con- 
 cerning them. Indeed, to those who are not acquainted 
 with the peculiar habits of the southern farmers the re- 
 port in this particular is misleading, for it shows no con- 
 siderable burden of indebtedness in the southern states. 
 It is true that this subject was well considered by the 
 editors of the volume and they decided that tlie cost of 
 including these liens would have been too great and the 
 result too unreliable. These reasons are of more force 
 in the case of such things as chattel mortgages and court 
 judgments than of crop liens, and it is to be hoped that 
 the way will be made clear to include the latter. They 
 really are real estate mortgages. 
 
 V. CONCLUSIONS. 
 
 In conclusion, I would reiterate my belief that the in- 
 quiry can be successfully carried out and .ought to be 
 repeated. The difficulty of doing it once in a decade 
 emphasizes the desirabilty of a permanent census bureau. 
 A single investigation is of little value. The value of 
 the investigation, whatever it is, depends upon the con- 
 tinuance or repetition of such inquiries in order that 
 comparisons may be made from time to time, and the 
 trend of the phenomena be more clearly set forth. 
 
 The regular census enumerators might safely be en- 
 trusted with the collection of facts regarding proprietor- 
 ship and tenancy so far as necessary to determine : 
 
 a. Whether the farm cultivated or the home occupied 
 is owned or rented ; 
 
 b. Description of the "family." 
 
Farm, and Home Proprietorship. 245 
 
 Finally, as has been said already, the facts of the two 
 volumes might well be presented in smaller compass. 
 This could easily be done if the superfluous presenta- 
 tions in the way of unnecessary groupings to elucidate 
 special points were reduced, the graphic presentations 
 lessened in number, and certain unnecessary tables 
 which have been mentioned omitted. The facts con- 
 cerning ownership and tenancy should, however, be 
 presented separately from those on debt., even if included 
 in the same volume. 
 
 The success of the special agents in the southern 
 states in doing work supplementary to the enumerators 
 emphasizes the value of such special agents for the 
 entire country. I do not believe that the expense would 
 be an insuperable obstacle. Agents could be selected 
 who are residents of the various states and more or less 
 familiar with the conditions in their neighboring 
 counties. They should be, so far as possible, legally 
 trained. It is especially desirable to have such agents if 
 it is intended to secure complete returns on the value of 
 farms and the amount of debt, rates of interest and ob- 
 jects of debt. The fact of incumbrance can be easily 
 secured by the ordinary enumerators. 
 
 David Kinlky. 
 
 University of Illinois. 
 
TRANSPORTATION. 
 
 The Statistics of Transportation. 
 
 For most, if not all branches of transportation, both 
 annual and decennial statistical reports should be pro- 
 vided. There is no subject concerning which the public 
 has greater need to keep informed. When the transporta- 
 tion service is not performed directly by the state, it is 
 conducted by corporations which are chartered by the 
 government and which in the intererest of the public 
 welfare, must be regulated by public authority. The 
 government is also appropriating large sums of money 
 to facilitate transportation, particularly that b}' water, 
 and this constitutes an added reason why the transporta- 
 tion statistics should be made complete and should be 
 collected regularly and frequently. 
 
 At the present time we do not annually collect statis- 
 tics of our inland or coast-wise commerce or of our ex- 
 press and telegraph business. Yet the public regula- 
 tion of railways and the intelligent appropriation of 
 money for river and harbor improvements require such 
 a knowledge of all these branches of transportation, 
 with the exception of the telegraph, as can be had only 
 by means of an annual collection of statistics. 
 
 The annual and decennial presentations should differ 
 both in scope and character. The decennial compila- 
 tion should be more detailed than the annual, and 
 should make those comparisons needed to present the 
 progress and evolution that is taking place in the vari- 
 ous transportation agencies and services. 
 
 The transportation statistics of the eleventh census 
 covered the coast-wise and inland water commerce of 
 
The Statistics of Transportation. 247 
 
 the United States and the business done by our railroad, 
 street railway and express companies. It was compara- 
 tively easy for the census officials to secure the statistics 
 of steam railroad transportation because nearly all of 
 the data desired from the railroad companies for the 
 census are annually submitted to the Interstate Com- 
 merce Commission. In the case of coastwise and inland 
 commerce, however, the only data published annually 
 by the government are the tonnage statistics contained 
 in the report of the United States Commissioner of Navi- 
 gation. Carriers by water are not required to report their 
 business annu.ally, and to a large extent they carry on 
 their business without the extensive organization which 
 prevails in railway transportation. To obtain the census 
 statistics of transportation by water, especially the statis- 
 tics of inland navigation, was consequently more diffi- 
 cult than to obtain those of transportation by rail. The 
 fact that there were no annual statistics of inland and 
 coast-wise water transportation made the necessity for 
 census statistics all the more urgent, and the census 
 volume on Transportation by Water gives evidence of 
 conscientious effort, put forth under good guidance, to 
 secure the desirable data. It was impossible to secure 
 complete statistics and doubtless there are many errors 
 in those given. Indeed it will not be possible to secure 
 full and reliable statistics of inland navigation until 
 Congress compels carriers by water to keep a record of 
 their business and make regular reports to the govern- 
 ment. 
 
 The business of the express companies is well pre- 
 sented in the eleventh census. Unfortunately the sta- 
 tistics do not include quite all the express business done 
 in this country, because one foreign corporation refused 
 to furnish the information requested of it. This is 
 
248 Atnerican Economic Associa,tion. 
 
 something whose recurrence can easily be prevented by 
 legislation. If the express companies were obliged, as 
 they should be, to make annual reports to the Interstate 
 Commerce Commission, not only would the annual sta- 
 tistical volume published by that body give a more 
 complete presentation of our transportation business by 
 rail, but the decennial presentation of the express 
 business could also be made much more valuable. 
 
 At the present time the Interstate Commerce Com- 
 mission collects annual statistics of railroad transporta- 
 tion, and the Bureau of Statistics in the Treasury 
 Department collects full statistics concerning our for- 
 eign commerce. The United States Commissioner of 
 Navigation, also connected with the Treasury Depart- 
 ment, in his annual report gives the statistics of the 
 tonnage of vessels engaged in the foreign and domestic 
 commerce of the United States. It is recommended that 
 the Interstate Commerce Commission be instructed by 
 Congress to collect annual statistics of all carriers by 
 water, of the business of express companies and of tele- 
 graph companies. The statistics of our coast-wise com- 
 merce could be collected and published most advanta- 
 geously by the Bureau of Statistics of the Treasury De- 
 partment if the statute outlining the powers of the 
 Bureau were so amended as include this function among 
 its duties. The Interstate Commerce Commission and 
 the Bureau of Statistics in the Treasury Department 
 now have statistical machinery which can readily 
 assume the added work of collecting the statistics here 
 recommended. 
 
 Besides these annual statistics, both the Commission 
 and the Bureau of Statistics referred to should publish 
 decennially statistical volumes covering the work that 
 has been done in the past by the census. These decen- 
 
The Statistics of Transportation. 249 
 
 nial statistical presentations are of great value to the 
 government and to students of industrial and social 
 affairs, and when collected and published, as here sug- 
 gested, they would be more accurate and more scientific 
 in character than those given in such an enumeration 
 as the census has presented. The additional cost in- 
 volved in the decennial compilation by the existing 
 bureaus would also be much less than that which would 
 be incurred by the census authorities in performing the 
 same work. There is every reason, then, both from the 
 standpoint of a scientific statistical presentation and from 
 that of economy, to favor the enlargement of the statis- 
 tical work of these two bureaus. 
 
 As regards the statistics which the national govern- 
 ment should collect in the future concerning street rail- 
 way transportation, the time has probably not yet arrived 
 for an annual compilation. The business of street rail- 
 ways is still mainly local and fairly distinct from the 
 traffic done on steam railroads. The business of the 
 two agents, however, is beginning to be less sharply 
 separated and there is every indication that the electric 
 railways are soon to enter very largely into the traffic 
 operations now carried on by the steam railroads. 
 There are already many inter-urban electric lines and 
 some of them are interstate roads. For the present, 
 however, it would seem best that the several states 
 should collect annual statistics of street railways. Some 
 states now do so, but the majority do not. If the states 
 during the coming decade should not provide for the 
 annual statistics, the United States should then under- 
 take the work. Doubtless by that time, also, the inter- 
 urban and interstate character of the street railway busi- 
 ness will have developed to such a degree as to render 
 
250 American Economic Association. 
 
 necessary an annual collection of statistics by the federal 
 government. 
 
 Concerning the desirability of a national decennial 
 presentation of street railway statistics, there can be no 
 question. Those who have occasion to use such statis- 
 tics fully appreciate the value of the volume on the 
 statistics of street railways that was included in the 
 eleventh census. A similar collection shoiild be made 
 in 1900, by the statistical department of the Inter- 
 state Commerce Commission. This and the other 
 recommendations made in this report will, of course, add 
 largely to the work of that department of the Interstate 
 Commerce Commission, and larger appropriations to 
 that department may be necessary. The Interstate 
 Commerce Commission, however, can do the work more 
 cheaply and more accurately than could any improvised 
 statistical force. 
 
 The census statistics of transportation by steam rail- 
 roads in 1890 were taken under very favorable circum- 
 stances, and it will be best to devote the remaining and 
 greater portion of this report to a criticism of the rail- 
 way statistics. The criticism will refer to the eleventh 
 census and will contain certain suggestions touching 
 the scope and character of the material that the future 
 decennial compilations should contain. 
 
 In discussing the problem of the scope and method of 
 railway statistics in the transportation volumes of the 
 United States census, two questions present them.selves. 
 The first and more important is, what railway statistics 
 can and should be presented to the public ; and, secondly, 
 what part of these statistics should be presented decen- 
 nially and what in the annual statistical report of the 
 Interstate Commerce Commission ? It will be best to 
 consider the second question first. 
 
The Statistics of Transportation . 251 
 
 Both investigations, the eleventh census and the 
 annual report of the Interstate Commerce Commission, 
 seek to give a clear idea of the mileage and equipment, 
 the capital, earnings and expenses, the personnel^ num- 
 ber of accidents, etc., upon American railways, and both 
 cover the ground in much the same manner. 
 
 It would be well in the future to co-ordinate more 
 closely the annual and decennial reports. This does not 
 mean, however, that what is printed in one must neces- 
 sarily be excluded from the other. A large part of the 
 data furnished by the Commission's annual statistical 
 report might be given in an abridged form in the de- 
 cennial volume. The chief purpose of the latter, how- 
 ever, should be to present the changes that have occurred 
 during the preceding ten \-ears. The annual volume 
 should concern itself more with the changing features of 
 the railway situation, while the decennial publication 
 should go with greater detail into those features which 
 are less mutable and more permanent in character. 
 
 The following are a few of the investigations with 
 which a decennial volume to be prepared in 1900 might 
 concern itself. A study might be made of the more 
 technical side of the railways. The volume miglit fur- 
 nish us with detailed statistics of gauge, curves, and 
 gradients upon the different lines, the proportion of steel 
 rails, the weight of the rails, the composition of the ties, 
 the number, cost and general character of stations, a 
 more detailed account of the locomotives and other roll- 
 ing stock, and a number of other facts which are in- 
 trinsically interesting and which throw considerable 
 light upon questions concerned with the cost of opera- 
 tion. Statistics of this sort are apparently better adapted 
 to the decennial than to the annual publication, as they 
 do not change so rapidly as does, for instance, the in- 
 
252 American Econotnic Association. 
 
 come or expense account, and a decennial comparison 
 would suffice to give a general idea of the railway de- 
 velopment along these lines. 
 
 Another feature of this decennial report should be a 
 presentation of the statistics of commodity ton-mileage. 
 The eleventh census contained a general, but rather un- 
 satisfactory, statement of the chief classes of commodities 
 carried. Fourteen groups of commodities were singled 
 out ; but these accounted for little less than three-fifths 
 of the total tonnage of the roads considered, and only 
 tons and not ton-mileage figures were given. While the 
 railways might possibly consider that a yearly statement 
 of the ton-mileage of each commodity would involve an 
 unreasonable amount of work, until less expensive 
 methods of railway auditing are introduced, such a 
 grievance could not be based upon a requirement to 
 make a decennial report. These statistics would not be 
 without value. The}^ would show the localization of 
 industries in various parts of the country as well as the 
 trend of traffic from one kind of commodity to another, 
 data which would have an important bearing upon the 
 question of reasonableness of rates. 
 
 With reference to the general method of presentation 
 of railway statistics, some changes seem desirable. 
 While certain fundamental facts should be presented 
 about all railways, it might be advisable to give in 
 greater detail the results for a limited number of large 
 roads instead of devoting considerable space to details of 
 insignificant, although independent, railways. It is 
 more important to have special information concerning 
 a railway with ten thousand employees than to be fur- 
 nished with general statements concerning lines em- 
 ploying one hundred men. It would be invidious and 
 probably inadvisable to demand information from one 
 
The Statistics of Tra7isportation. 253 
 
 line that was not required of another, but the plan 
 might be adopted of printing detailed information for 
 the hundred largest railways, while filing the material 
 presented by smaller railways. 
 
 The freight traffic statistics, both in the annual and 
 decennial reports, might be divided not only into local 
 and through business, but into intra-state and inter-state 
 traffic. These statistics would be comparatively easy to 
 furnish from the way-bills, and would be valuable in 
 connection with questions of taxation, state control, etc. 
 
 The reports might also furnish statistics of car-miles. 
 We now have train-mile and passenger — and ton- 
 mile statistics, but the connecting link, car-miles, is 
 missing. These statistics are easily obtainable and 
 would be of importance in connection with questions of 
 utilization of rolling stock, number of persons or of tons 
 per car in various kinds of traffic, length of trains, etc. 
 There are numerous practical questions of railway 
 economy, upon which light would be thrown by the 
 publication of car-mile statistics. Statistics of car- 
 capacity might also be valuable in connection with 
 questions of car load rates. 
 
 The wage statistics of railway employees might also 
 be profitably incorporated into the decennial volume, 
 and the present labor statistics contained in the Com- 
 mission's Statistical Report might be somewhat remod- 
 elled and altered. Not only the average wages should 
 be given, but also the number of employees in each of a 
 number of wage classes should be presented, and it is 
 equally advisable that the classification should be made 
 more detailed and the groups more definite. The census 
 reports of the future might also contain statistics of the 
 hours of labor for the various groups of employees, simi- 
 lar to the statistics obtainable for Prussia or Saxony. 
 
254 American Economic Association. 
 
 The question of capitalization and increase of capital 
 of railways should be carefully considered in preparing 
 the decennial report. There is probably nothing in the 
 whole field of railway statistics, with the possible excep- 
 tion of those of " injuries in accidents ", so inconclu- 
 sive as the statistics of capitalization. The capital 
 account of American railways presented by the official 
 statistics means neither the amount spent on the con- 
 struction of the railways, nor the total amount con- 
 tributed by all parties, including the National, state 
 and local governments, nor the cost of purchase of the 
 railways, nor their present value, nor anything of real 
 significance. To say that the capital account of Ameri- 
 can railways is some eleven thousand millions of dollars 
 is to make a statement that has little economic value. 
 A capital account of a million dollars may mean an in- 
 vestment of two millions or of five hundred thousand 
 dollars, and the capital account may be doubled or 
 halved without there being any increase or diminution 
 of the real investment. 
 
 The lack of meaning in the statistics of capitalization 
 could be overlooked, if it did not lead to their being 
 given a false interpretation. The publication of capital- 
 ization statistics, which, whatever their relation to actual 
 investment, are far in excess of the value of the railways, 
 leads foreign and home critics to false conclusions and 
 serves as a basis for many specious arguments and in- 
 correct judgments. So general are the erroneous im- 
 pressions derived from these statistics, that we might 
 almost be tempted to consider it preferable to suppress 
 the whole body of statistics of capital, on the ground of 
 insufficiency of data. 
 
 If the present statistics of capitalization are retained, 
 and we think on the whole that they should be, some 
 
The Statistics of Transportation. 255 
 
 attempt should be made by the Commission in both 
 annual and decennial reports to rectify the false impress- 
 ion which such statistics give. Such a correction might 
 possibly be obtained by a table showing in parallel col- 
 umns the market value of such of the stocks as are 
 quoted, and the par value of the same securities. It 
 would also be well to follow the example of the English 
 reports in showing from 3-ear to year the increase in the 
 capital account that is real and the increase that is nom- 
 inal, in other words, that which is due to conversions, 
 consolidations, etc. Such facts would give the public 
 some conception of the actual amount of capital invested 
 dtiring the last year or decade, and some conception also 
 of the actual present value of railway property. 
 
 In general the recommendations of this report are, 
 that the Interstate Commerce Commission should be 
 empowered and instructed to collect annually statistics 
 not only of steam railway traffic but also of the business 
 of inland water transportation, and of express and tele- 
 graph companies. The Bureau of Statistics in the 
 Treasury Department, besides publishing statistics of 
 foreign commerce, should also be instructed to publish 
 annually statistics of otir coast-wise traffic. In the future, 
 both of these agencies should publish decennial statistical 
 reports which should take the place of the presentation 
 contained in the eleventh census. The decennial col- 
 lection of the statistics of street railways should be 
 made by the Interstate Commerce Commission. The 
 decennial volumes should contain those details concern- 
 ing which annual reports are not necessary but which 
 properly belong in a decennial and coinparative presen- 
 tation. The relation which the annual and decennial 
 reports of steam railway transportation should bear to 
 
256 American Economic Association. 
 
 each other are indicated in this report. It seems hardly 
 necessary to discuss here each branch of transportation 
 in a similar manner. 
 
 Emory R. Johnson, 
 Walter E. Weyl. 
 
 University of Pennsylvania. 
 
MANTTFACTURES. 
 Manufactures in th.e Federal Census. 
 
 The statistics of manufactures are among the weakest 
 in the whole range of census reports, although more 
 carefully compiled than most. They are subject to more 
 limitations, and are susceptible of more misleading in- 
 terpretations than any other group. As a statistical 
 photograph of facts, they are inadequate and defective, 
 though perhaps not more so than other branches of 
 census work. 
 
 This is the more to be regretted because of the in- 
 timate relation which the manufacturing statistics bear, 
 or are supposed to bear, to modern sociological study. 
 In the series of problems which increasingly occupy 
 public attention, — those which have to do with the rela- 
 tions of labor and capital and the contention of individu- 
 alism vs. collectivism, — these statistics are incessantly 
 drawn upon to enforce the argument of one side or the 
 other. Such is their construction that either side can 
 prove from them, or thinks it can prove, practically any 
 proposition it chooses to advance. 
 
 Thus our manufacturing statistics are reservoirs of 
 popular error. Without a full understanding of their 
 limitations, it is impossible to avoid falling into miscon- 
 ception. Notwithstanding the frequent sign-posts and 
 danger-signals scattered through the text, economists, 
 public writers, legislators, and propagandists of every 
 sort persist in reading them awry ; and we may assume 
 that most of them are honest in so doing. 
 
 It is necessary to add that some compilers of manu- 
 facturing statistics set the fashion by reading into them, 
 17 
 
258 American Economic Association. 
 
 through derivative tables and percentages, certain rela- 
 tionships which the methods of compilation do not 
 warrant. Any subsidiary calculation which contains an 
 element of error — not an error in original data or com- 
 putation, but an error in principle — is one that ought 
 never to be made in an official census. 
 
 Some of the limitations upon the value of manufact- 
 ing statistics can be remedied, in a degree at least, and 
 some of them at present appear to be hopeless. 
 
 Two things may encourage us in spite of this outlook. 
 One is the fact that, defective as they are, our manu- 
 facturing statistics are the best produced in any country ; 
 the other is the fact that since i860 they have steadily 
 improved from decade to decade. 
 
 The difficulties surrounding a complete census of 
 manufactures are so appalling that they have thus far 
 deterred any of the great manufacturing nations of 
 Europe from attempting the work on any comprehensive 
 scale like our own. These difficulties have never in the 
 least degree phased or made to falter the ambitious 
 statisticians of our own country ; and manufacting 
 statistics have so multiplied of late years, through 
 the compilations of our increasing niimber of state 
 bureaus of labor statistics, that it appears timely 
 to study their methods and limitations, to point out 
 some of their defects, and to measure their intrinsic 
 value as guides to definite conclusions in practical affairs, 
 in legislation and in social movement. 
 
 I. The Earlier Censuses of Manufactures. 
 
 The industrial census of the nation was first under- 
 taken in iSio, on the recommendation of Secretary 
 Gallatin in his Report on Manufactures. Congress had 
 no conception of the difiiculties of the task it ordained. 
 
Mayiufachires in the Federal Census. 259 
 
 This first iadustrial census was taken without even the 
 formality of a schedule, or definite instructions to the 
 marshals, and necessarily it forms no true measure of the 
 industrial resources of the country at that time. What- 
 ever utility the figures possess was imparted by Tench 
 Coxe, who was appointed by the Secretary of the Treas- 
 ury to digest the returns and make out of them such 
 showing as he could. 
 
 Of the $198,613,471 reported as the value of products, 
 more than 60 per cent was estimated by Mr. Coxe. 
 While the statistical value of such an estimate is doubt- 
 ful, it does nevertheless afford a definite starting-point, 
 undoubtedly conservative, from which our subsequent 
 growth can be approximately measured, precisely as the 
 growth of English wealth and resources is measured from 
 Domesday Book. 
 
 The industrial census of 1820, although conducted on 
 a schedule which contained the principal questions of 
 present inquiry, was even more unsatisfactory than that 
 of 1810, partly, according to Mr. Bishop,' "on account 
 of the inadequate compensation allowed the enumerators, 
 and partly from the inability or reluctance of manufac- 
 turers to give details of their business." The digest of 
 the returns prepared in the office of the Secretary of 
 State was so imperfect an exhibit that the Secretary 
 was only constrained to permit its publication by the 
 imperative nature of the resolution of Congress calling 
 for it. A subsequent resolution providing for its distri- 
 bution was tabled. On this account the document has 
 corae to possess some value to bibliophiles as a rare bit 
 of Americana, but it has none to the statistician. 
 
 The value of manufactured articles returned was 
 
 'J. Leander Bishop, "A History of American Manufactures," 3 : 
 263. (1868.) 
 
26o American Economic Association. 
 
 $32,271,984, just about one-sixth of the product reported 
 ten years earlier. The decrease, Mr. Bishop explains, 
 was in part due to " the omission of all manufactures 
 strictly domestic or household." Another explanation 
 was the failure to secure the services of a man like 
 Tench Coxe, capable of reading into the figures some of 
 the data which the enumerators left out. 
 
 This experience led to the abandonment of any attempt 
 to take an industrial census in 1830. 
 
 The census of 1840 was little better than its prede- 
 cessors. " We are astonished as well as embarrassed," 
 says Mr. Bishop, " by the meagerness of its details. 
 Even of the leading branches in some instances only 
 the capital is given ; in others only the product ; and we 
 confess we do not know by what rule of arithmetic or 
 mensuration any one could have calculated from ofScial 
 data that the capital invested in manufactures at that 
 time was $267,726,579." The report itself does not 
 attempt to aggregate the value of the products returned ; 
 in a number of the leading industries, such as flour and 
 grist mills, cast iron, liquors, powder, etc., only the 
 quantities are returned ; when we come to cast up the 
 account for ourselves, making our own estimates, we 
 find the aggregate so relatively small that we suspect it 
 affords the explanation of the absence of any attempt at 
 an official total. 
 
 General Walker declares that the results of the manu- 
 facturing census of 1840 are " worthy of little consider- 
 ation ;" and he adds that it is " from the census of 1850 
 that official information on this subject may be said to 
 begin." ' Mr. Bishop also declares that the seventh 
 census, which was taken under the direction of J. D. B. 
 DeBow, was the first in which " the government at- 
 tempted to ascertain with an approach to accuracy the 
 
 ^ Encyclopaedia Britannica, article " United States," 824,5. 
 
Manufactures in the Federal Census. 261 
 
 exact development of the productive industry of the 
 country, not counting any establishmetits that did not 
 produce $500 per year." "The astounding fact was 
 revealed," adds Bishop, " that the capital invested in 
 manufactures exceeded $550,000,000, and the annual 
 product had reached $1,019,106,616." 
 
 The census of i860, which reported products of the 
 value of $1,885,861,676, adds " a moderate estimate for 
 omissions and for non-return of minor and inconsiderable 
 establishments," which brings the total up to $2,000,- 
 000,000, or an increase of $980,894,000 in ten years. 
 
 The census of 1870 was taken under the law of 1850, 
 and Superintendent Walker was not long in discovering 
 that the original returns were so defective as to be in 
 the nature of a burlesque upon accuracy. The result 
 was a re-enumeration of five of the chief cities and of 
 many smaller ones, which added $250,000,000 to the 
 gross product originally reported. He then balanced 
 accounts between the eighth and ninth censuses, adding 
 or subtracting the industries covered in one and not the 
 other, in the following manner •} 
 
 Total production of the United States, 1870, as reported__f4,232,325,442 
 Add on account of cotton-ginning, etc. \ ^, 
 
 (omitted) I »b5,753,323 
 
 Mining, pure, " 82,016,061 
 
 Quarrying, " 11,860,622 
 
 Fisheries, " 11,096,522 
 
 170,726,528 
 
 14,403,051,970 
 
 Deduct on account of butchering I13, 686,061 
 
 Value of cloth printed 36,838,007 
 
 Increase in reported production of car- 
 penters, coopers, etc 177,569,242 
 
 Increase due to re-enumeration 250,000,000 
 
 478,093,310 
 
 13,924,958,660 
 Total production of the United States, i860, as pub- 
 lished : 1,885,861,676 
 
 Increase in 10 years, 108.12 per cent $2,039,096,984 
 
 1 Ninth Census, Wealth and Industry, 378,f. 
 
262 American Economc Association. 
 
 I reproduce this table for the purpose of illustrating 
 how enormous is the variation, from census to census, 
 in the basis or sub-structure of the manufacturing sta- 
 tistics, and now dangerous it is to attempt any such 
 tables of comparative increase, or percentage of increase, 
 as that which appears in the volume on Manufactures 
 for 1890.' The fact is that there have never yet been 
 two censuses of manufactures taken which are properly 
 comparable by the percentage method, either as a whole 
 or in anj' of their elements. 
 
 General Walker, further commenting upon the manu- 
 facturing statistics of the census of 1870,^ said : 
 
 "If the reported gross product, ^1,885,861,676, at 
 i860, had been correct (as it manifestly was not), about 
 3,925 millions of dollars would have been the true ex- 
 pression for the gross product of 1870. On the other 
 hand were the reported gross product of 1870, 
 $4,232,325,442, correct (and it is manifestly below the 
 facts of the case), about 2,030 millions of dollars would 
 have been a just statement of the product of i860. If, 
 again, the product of 1870 were to be increased (as it 
 clearly ought) by a sum exceeding $600,000,000 on ac- 
 count of the omissions and deficiencies which have been 
 previously noted, the product of i860 would stand at 
 about 2,325 millions of dollars, while the product of 
 1870 reached $4,839,090,670." 
 
 These curious computations and readjustments show 
 how little intrinsic value, for scientific statistical pur- 
 poses, has been assigned to the totals of the census of 
 manufactures, by those who are familiar with them from 
 the inside. 
 
 The greatest step in advance was at the census of 
 
 1 Eleventh Census, Manufacturing Industries, i • 4. 
 ^ Xinth Censvis, Ibid. 
 
Manufactures in the Federal Census. 263 
 
 1880, when the modern method of enumeration and 
 supervision was first employed, and General Walker ap- 
 plied the system of special agents, first in the collection 
 of data, and then in their presentation by industries 
 under the supervision of experts. The reports of this 
 census are consequently the first, in the substantial 
 accuracy of which we can have much confidence. Both 
 these improvements were continued and perfected under 
 the census of 1890. It is difficult to understand the 
 grounds upon which Congress now proposes to deprive 
 the census director of the advisory services of experts, 
 in the preparation, compilation and interpretation of the 
 statistics of the great industries. It is certain that this 
 work cannot be satisfactorily performed by the average 
 census clerk, having no knowledge of the technical sig- 
 nificance and the logical relation of the figures with 
 which he is dealing. It is certain that the Census Office 
 cannot command, for the salary of clerks, capable ex- 
 perts willing to siirrender permanent vocations for tem- 
 porary service. That there have been abuses of the 
 special agency system is known to us all ; but it would 
 seem to be an easy matter so to guard a provision of law 
 authorizing them as to protect both the service and the 
 director. 
 
 The chief improvements of the census of 1890 over 
 that of 1880 were the addition of the item of miscellane- 
 ous expenses, previously strangely overlooked, the classi- 
 fication of wage returns, and the further differentiation 
 of the great manufacturing industries by the use of 
 special schedules. There is, however, a limit to the ex- 
 tent to which this specialization of industries can be 
 carried, for the danger of overloading is always present. 
 
 The eleventh census was also a vast improvement over 
 all its predecessors, in the system and intelligence with 
 
264 AmeHcan Economic Association. 
 
 which the schedules were classified, revised, tabulated 
 and verified. 
 
 This brief reference to previous censuses of manufact- 
 ures convej's some idea of the difiiculties in the way of 
 their collection and compilation, and of the reasons why 
 comparisons between their several results must be made 
 with many reservations, where it is permissible to make 
 them at all. Inadequate provision and insufficient com- 
 pensation for the collection of original data have been 
 accompanied by other difficulties more serious — the re- 
 luctance of men to reveal the details of their private 
 business into which they feel the government has no 
 right to pry, the natural disposition to suppress or color 
 the facts, and the fear on the part of many that data of 
 this character are sought for some purpose that has to 
 do with taxation. On top of all this is the difficulty of 
 so framing a schedule that the manufacturer, however 
 intelligent and well disposed, will make a return which 
 will dovetail with itself. In gathering the statistics of 
 the wool manufacture for the eleventh census, four out 
 of every five schedules received had to be returned for 
 important corrections ; nor was this experience pecular 
 to that industry. The carelessness of the enumerator, 
 coupled with the carelessness or covert hostility of the 
 manufacturer, — who is apt to regard these statistics with 
 contempt where he does not look upon them with 
 dread, — combine to make the returns less trustworthy, 
 and more difficult to whip into shape, than those of any 
 other branch of the census. These are difficulties that 
 interfere with the collection of the data ; those that in- 
 here in their compilation are more serious still. 
 
Manufactures in the Federal Census. 265 
 
 II. The Defective Standard of Measurement. 
 
 In an inquiry into the nature of these difficulties, we 
 are confronted on the threshold with the impossibility 
 of applying- any uniform standard of measurement to 
 the results of the enumeration. In treating of industry 
 as a whole, the census is confined to value as the only 
 available standard of measurement, quantities being out 
 of the case. When we undertake to ascertain an average 
 death rate, we have something definite and tangible to 
 work for ; something which means the same thing under 
 all conditions, and the variations of which always tell 
 their story in the same way. The standard of measure- 
 ment by value is variable and untrustworthy in two 
 ways. We have first the variation in the standard by 
 which value itself is measured. Thus the census of 
 i860 was taken on the gold basis of value; the census 
 of 1870 was taken when the paper dollar had an average 
 value in gold of 79.81 cents; the census of 1880 was 
 taken on the heels of the resumption of specie payments 
 by the government ; and the census of 1890 on a normal 
 monetary basis. The standard by which we measure 
 the volume of our manufacturing products has been 
 essentially different at each of the last four censuses. 
 
 The census of 1890 has attempted to make the figures 
 comparable, by reducing the value reported for 1870 to a 
 gold basis, ^ thus reducing a product worth $4,232,325,442 
 to $3,385,860,354, notwithstanding General Walker's 
 statement (already quoted) that to be a true photograph 
 of the facts the value returned in 1870 should be in- 
 creased by a sum exceeding $600,000,000, measured in 
 the currency of the day. It is doubtful if the basis of 
 comparison has been improved materially by this arbi- 
 
 ' Eleventh Census, Manufacturing Industries, i : 2 and 4. 
 
266 American Economic Association. 
 
 trary treatment of the figures ; for it assumes that the 
 inflated vahie of the dollar, in 1870, has only to be 
 eliminated in order to make comparable statistics, 
 whereas the fact is that another element of variation 
 remains which forbids exact comparison — the variation 
 in the quantity of product represented by a dollar, due 
 to change in prices. This variation is so great as to 
 make exact comparison impossible, even if the standard 
 itself were fixed and uniform. 
 
 In his discussion of the manufacturing statistics of 
 1870 General Walker stated' that "after much thought 
 and extensive inquiry on the subject, and the api^lication 
 of numerous tests, he was disposed to regard 56 per cent 
 as a just statement of the increase in price for all classes 
 of mechanical and manufacturing productions between 
 i860 and 1870; that is, that manufactured articles of 
 the same quality (averaging all branches of production) 
 which would have been worth $1,000,000,000 in i860 
 would have been worth $1,560,000,000 in 1870. This 
 would leave the increase of manufacturing production 
 in the ten years to be represented by 52 per cent." 
 
 In other words, in the census of 1870, which showed 
 an increase of 108 per cent over i860, 52 per cent, 
 according to General Walker's calculations, represented 
 the increase in manufacturing production, or " the actual 
 industrial growth," and 56 per cent represented the in- 
 crease due to increased prices, caused partly by an 
 inflated currency. 
 
 Thus we have General Walker, in order to get a 
 reasonable basis of comparison for quantities with the 
 census of i860, suggesting the reduction of the value 
 of the product of 1870 by 56 per cent of the value 
 of the product of i860 and Colonel Wright reduc- 
 
 ' Ninth Census, Industry and Wealth, 379. 
 
Manufactures in the Federal Census. 267 
 
 ing it by 20. 19 per cent (the average premium on gold for 
 the census year) for purposes of comparison with sub- 
 sequent censuses. These two very different treatments 
 of the same results, for the purpose of rectifying varia- 
 tions in the unit of measurement due to different causes, 
 indicate how impossible it is for the la}' reader of cen- 
 sus figures to make a satisfactory use of them for com- 
 parative purposes. 
 
 Since 1870 the tendency of prices has been steadily 
 ■downward, but no subsequent census has taken cogni- 
 zance of this reversal of the conditions which General 
 Walker attempted to measure in the census of the 
 former year. The striking phenomenon of manufactur- 
 ing has been the constantly increasing quantity of goods 
 represented by a dollar, due to the cheapening of pro- 
 duction brought ■ about by improved machinery and 
 processes, cheaper transportation, and the lower prices 
 •of materials. 
 
 Professor Falkner's report on prices, for the Aldrich 
 Investigation of 1891, shows that, between i860 and 
 1890, there was a greater decrease in the prices of man- 
 ufactured articles than iir any other group of necessities 
 considered, the average fall in the price of clothing be- 
 ing nearly 25 per cent,' while in a great variety of staple 
 manufactured articles it was very much more, as, for 
 instance, print cloths, with a decrease of 42 per cent ; 
 nails, 41 percent; handsaws, 62.5 per cent; scythes, 
 40 per cent ; pocket knives, 47 per cent ; and so on. It 
 might be possible to establish a statistical barometer of 
 values, for certain lines of staple manufactures, on the 
 plan of Sauerbeck's index numbers, whereby it would 
 
 'Senate Report on Wholesale Prices, (1893), i : 83. See also the 
 table of averages on page 91, where it is shown that the fall in the 
 prices of groups of manufactured articles has been uniformly greater 
 than in the food products of agriculture. 
 
268 American Economic Association. 
 
 be possible to measure this difference with sufficient ac- 
 curacy for practical purposes. No such collateral work 
 could be attempted, except in connection with a per- 
 manent census office. Continuity of method in this re- 
 spect as in a great many other directions, is im- 
 possible, where the whole organization of the census 
 office is periodically broken up. 
 
 In the separate industries the difficulties growing out 
 of the lack of a uniform standard of measurement are 
 overcome, to a degree, by the existence of other 
 standards, such as the unit of machinery capacity, as 
 the spindle in cotton, the card in woolens, the loom in 
 silks, etc. But even here the trouble is not overcome ; 
 for the spindle, the card, and the loom have been very 
 different things, at each census, in the volume of pro- 
 duction they stand for. 
 
 Nor are we much better off when, in the separate in- 
 dustries, we undertake to measure growth by actual 
 quantities of given products. The difficulties of supple- 
 menting the money value of product by quantities, in 
 special industries, are enormous, because of the constant 
 variations which occur in the characteristics of these 
 products. A yard of cloth is always a yard of cloth ; 
 but by no means is it always the same yard of cloth, or 
 a yard that can safely be assumed to be the same, 
 even for statistical purposes. 
 
 It is clear that an absolute unit of measurement, in 
 manufacturing statistics, is impossible ; and that the ac- 
 cepted unit, the dollar, represents at each census a dif- 
 ferent thing, both as to capital, product, and wages. 
 There have been no two censuses at which the dollar 
 represented the same quantity of goods, or, in the mat- 
 ter of wages, the same purchasing power. This fact 
 emphasizes the warning of General Walker, that " the 
 
Manufactures in the Federal Census. 269 
 
 conditions of the census material (in manufacturing 
 statistics) do not allow of nice treatment, and it would 
 be affectation to attempt fine distinction or precise com- 
 putations in dealing with the subject." ' That warning 
 we are in constant danger of forgetting in our modern 
 treatment of these statistics. 
 
 III. Factory Product and Trades Product. 
 
 A second difficulty is not less troublesome. What is 
 manufacturing, and what are properly included in these 
 statistics as manufacturing establishments ? The same 
 rule has applied in no two censuses ; and the text of all 
 of them is largely occupied in pointing out the things 
 included in one and omitted in another. For instance, 
 the censuses of 1850 and i860 professed to contain a re- 
 turn of the " Product of Manufacturing, Mining, and the 
 Mechanic Arts ; " and they included the gold dug from 
 the California mines. The census of 1870 included the 
 value of stone, slate, and marble quarried, and also the 
 value of the fisheries, excluded from subsequent cen- 
 suses. The census of 1840 even included "houses" 
 among the products of manufacturing industry ; and it 
 is by no means certain that they do not belong there. 
 Mr. Steuart, chief of the division of Manufactures in 
 the census of 1890, states that "certain industries, such 
 as dressmaking, bottling, millinery, cars, and general 
 shop construction, and repairs by steam railroads, manu- 
 facture of gas, etc., had apparently been included in the 
 total of 1870, but in 1880 they had either been omitted, 
 or the reports classified with other industries in such a 
 manner that it was impossible to identify them."^ 
 They were all again included in 1890, with numerous 
 
 ' Ninth Census, Idem, 375. 
 
 2 American Journal of Sociology, 3 : 623 (1898). 
 
270 America7i Economic Association. 
 
 other industries not previously enumerated in any 
 census. 
 
 This constant variation in the rule of inclusion again 
 illustrates the impossibility of satisfactory results, in 
 the absence of a permanent census office controlled by 
 some tradition which insures uniformity of method. It 
 illustrates quite as forcibly the inherent difficulty of 
 satisfactorily determining what is properly to be in- 
 cluded in manufacture and properly returnable as such, 
 under the indefinite language of the census law. 
 
 Since the founding of the government, the conditions 
 of manufacture have been undergoing profound modi- 
 fication. It- has passed rapidly from a household indus- 
 try into a factory industry, and this latter has divided 
 up into innumerable special industries. The first 
 industrial census was almost wholly an account of 
 household industries, or of semi-household industries, — 
 such as the local carding and fulling mill which simply 
 prepared the wool or finished the cloth spun and woven 
 by the neighborhood families. Our word " manufac- 
 ture," in scornful disregard of etymological nicety, has 
 come to signify, in its popular iise, something precisely 
 the reverse of that which it chiefl)' signified when the 
 first industrial census was taken. As we have pro- 
 gressed towards the factory, one after another of the old 
 hand industries was eliminated from the manufacturing 
 statistics, now because it had disappeared altogether, 
 and now because it was carried on by single individuals. 
 The arbitrary rule of requiring a product to be valued 
 at $500 or more, to be included in the counts, was 
 adopted in 1840. It is practically the only rule of dis- 
 crimination to whicli the Census Office has strictly 
 adhered. A more absurd rule could not have been 
 devised. 
 
Ma7iufactures in the Federal Census. 271 
 
 The truth is that the manufacturing statistics, as now 
 made up, are neither one thing nor another, neither 
 flesh, fowl, nor good red herring. The time has come 
 to draw a sliarp line between the hand trades, properly 
 so called, like brick-laying, house-painting, etc., and 
 those productive industries whose products seek the 
 general markets, and are subject to the general laws of 
 trade. 
 
 It is impossible fully to cover the hand trades in an 
 industrial census ; the existence of the $500 rule is a 
 confession of that fact. Moreover many handicraftsmen 
 carry on business without any shop or paraphernalia 
 which can be identified or enumerated as a manufactur- 
 ing establishment. It would seem to be plain that 
 industrialism pursued under such conditions ought not 
 to be confused, for census purposes, with factory manu- 
 facture, and that the two classes of data cannot be 
 mingled and combined, in the consolidation of manu- 
 facturing statistics, without affecting the exactness of 
 the results. 
 
 There were returns from 355,415 establishments in 
 the census of 1890. More than one- third of this number 
 were establishments engaged in the occupations foUow- 
 
 Bakeries 10,484 
 
 Bicycle repairing 83 
 
 Blackstnithing 28,000 
 
 Boots and shoes (custom and repairing) 20,803 
 
 Carpentering 16,917 
 
 Clothing (custom and repairing) 13,591 
 
 Dentistrj' 3)2I4 
 
 Dressmaking 19,587 
 
 Masonry 5.969 
 
 Millinerj' shops i 6,000 
 
 Painting and paper hanging 10,043 
 
 Plastering and stucco work 1.746 
 
 Total 136,437 
 
 Eleventh Census, Manufacturing Industries, I ; 36-45. 
 
272 American Economic Association. 
 
 These establishments cover a form of industrialism 
 which is not manufacturing, in the modern significance 
 of the word. They are collected at an enormous 
 expense, and their verification and tabulation enor- 
 mously increase the cost and labor of the division of 
 manufactures in the Census Office. 
 
 The conditions surrounding handicraft industry are 
 so essentially different from those of the factory that the 
 consolidation into one mass of the data relating to both 
 must materially detract from the scientific accuracy of 
 the results. Trades and manufactures are the same 
 thing in census statistics ; although political economy 
 long since differentiated them as distinct and essentially 
 different things. 
 
 The conditions of the so-called manufacturing estab- 
 lishments thus grouped indiscriminately together are so 
 obviously different that any attempt to generalize from 
 the data secured is dangerous and unsatisfactory. 
 
 Manufacturing must necessarily be treated as compris- 
 ing the industries carried on under the factory system, 
 which means something entirely different from house- 
 hold industry, from shopwork, from employment at a 
 trade, even when the trade workmen are employed at 
 wages by large contractors. These latter it is impossi- 
 ble ever to cover adequately in a manufacturing census 
 and therefore it is useless to attempt to cover them at 
 all. 
 
 On the other hand, by confining the census to what is 
 distinctly recognized as factory production, we should 
 have one complete and homogeneous thing, and could 
 better conform its statistical presentation to scientific 
 methods. 
 
 Some doubt exists as to just what factory manufacture 
 is. It would be necessary to make an arbitrary defini- 
 
Manufactu7-es in the Federal Census. 273 
 
 tion ; but no definition could be more arbitrary than the 
 time-honored one which omits every industry whose 
 product is under $500, and includes every industry whose 
 product is $550. I suggest, as a rule which might be 
 followed, a modification of that commonly found in the 
 state labor laws, for the guidance of factory inspectors ; 
 i. e., any establishment in which five or more persons 
 are employed at wages, and in which power is used for 
 the production of articles for sale. 
 
 General Walker in an article in 1869,^ said that the 
 contribution to the wealth of the country by its artisans, 
 or hand-workers, is far more valuable than that made by 
 its factory workers ; and he added that the contribution 
 to the national wealth made b}' these hand trades ought 
 to be separately reported and carefully differentiated 
 from the report of factory industry. He suggested the 
 desirability of two distinct schedules — a suggestion 
 which he did not attempt to carry out in either of the 
 censuses whose taking he subsequently superintended. 
 Those who had the practical administration of this bu- 
 reau of the eleventh census inform me that his further 
 suggestion, made in the Ninth Census, and quoted 
 in the foot-note,^ for a statistical estimate of the products 
 
 ''■ Atlantic Monthly, 24 : 691. 
 
 ^ " Of the total amount paid for tlie collection of the Statistics of 
 Manufacture in ' Schedule 4,' more than a fifth was expended for re- 
 turns relating to carpentering, blacksniithing, coopering, painting, 
 plastering, and plumbing, not one of which industries, though far 
 better returned than ever before, was reported with sufficient com- 
 pleteness even to furnish the data for a computation of the true pro- 
 duction of the trade, so that, after this expenditure, one is still 
 obliged to resort to the Table of Occupations for the material from 
 which to estimate the production of this group of industries. The 
 money thus thrown away would have served, if placed under the con- 
 trol of the Department of the Interior for the salaries of experts and 
 for traveling expenses of special agents, to make the statistics of the 
 larger industries complete and correct in the highest attainable de- 
 18 
 
274 American Economic Association. 
 
 of the trades, based upon the Tables of Occupations, is 
 impracticable, for the reason that the larger portion, ac- 
 cording to the returns, of those who describe themselves 
 as " carpenters," " blacksmiths," etc., are actually em- 
 ployed in factories and mills, where their work is of the 
 general nature described, while still others may not be 
 employed at all at their chief occupation when the cen- 
 sus is taken. It is unfortunately the fact that the sta- 
 tistics of manufactures, when studied in connection with 
 the tables of occupations, present anomalies and incon- 
 sistencies which it is not easy to reconcile with our own 
 conception of the facts. For instance, the manufactur- 
 ing statistics of 1890 report 140,021 persons employed 
 in carpenter shops, while the occupation tables show 
 611,482 carpenters in the country. In other words, only 
 23 per cent of the carpenters are returned as such in the 
 
 gree, creditable to the census as a national work, and invaluable to 
 the statesman, the political economist, and the practical man of busi- 
 ness. At the same time, a well-trained statistician can, in a few hours, 
 from the Tables of Occupations, reach a far more satisfactory result in 
 respect to the products of the minor trades than is to be obtained by 
 manipulating the partial returns of the trades themselves. In a word, 
 the returns of manufactures should be restricted to those industries 
 which are carried on in considerable establishments, and are suscepti- 
 ble to a thorough, complete, and detailed enumeration. 
 
 Second. The returns of manufactures, having been thus restricted, 
 should be far more specific, and should be made to conform to the 
 advance in the practical arts within the last twenty years, and to the 
 requirements of modern statistical science, The additional facts 
 thus to be elicited should not be industrial merely, but such also as 
 are of social and sanitary importance. 
 
 The manufacturing tables of the census ought to be so full of tech- 
 nical information as to become the handbook of manufacturers, while, 
 at the same time, they might be made so pregnant with truths im- 
 portant to the economist and the statesman as to become a handbook 
 of social and political philosophy. With no more authority of law 
 than might have been contained in five lines of the statutes, and with 
 not a dollar of expense above what has been incurred in making this 
 unsatisfactory exhibit of the national industries, such an enumeration 
 of the manufactures of the country might have been effected at the 
 ninth census."— Ninth Census, Wealth and Industry, 384,f. 
 
Manufactures in the Federal Census. 275 
 
 manufacturing statistics, the remainder not being re- 
 turned at all, or being lost in the general statistics of 
 car-shops, furniture factories, and other wood-working: 
 establishments. It is difficult to believe that ^'] per cent 
 of the carpenters of the country are. employed in shops 
 other than carpenter shops. It is difficult to believe 
 that 74 per cent of the painters are employed in other 
 than paint shops ; and yet we are forced to this conclu- 
 sion by the statistics as they appear, and there is no 
 method by which the two groups of carpenters or paint- 
 ers can be segregrated and the statistics tested. 
 
 IV. Gross, " Net," and Actual Values. 
 
 A third difficulty encountered in manufacturing sta- 
 tistics has to do partly with methods and partly with 
 phraseology. 
 
 As our censuses have hitherto been taken, they in- 
 volve an enormous element of duplication and redupli- 
 cation in the products, a defect which has been regarded 
 as unavoidable, and which results, notwithstanding the 
 constant warnings of the text, in an almost universal 
 misconception of the real facts. The finished products 
 of one branch of industry being constantly the raw ma- 
 terials of another in the ascending scale of modern in- 
 dustry, it follows that they are counted over and over 
 again in swelling the final value of products. Thus in 
 the wool manufacture, the product of the yarn mill is 
 the raw material of the cloth mill, and the product of 
 the cloth mill is the raw material of the clothing manu- 
 facturer ; by the time the aggregate is made, the value 
 of the yarn has been counted three times and the cloth 
 twice. This is a fair sample of what goes on every- 
 where, from beginning to end of these industrial statis- 
 
276 American Economic Association. 
 
 tics. A product the value of which has beeu stuffed 
 and restuffed iu this manner is a fictitious total ; and all 
 percentages reckoned thereon, in relation with any other 
 items returned, are necessarily a snare and a delusion. 
 
 A curious illustration of the effect of this duplication, 
 and of the difficulties it presents, is found in the case of 
 gray cloths sent to finishing-mills to be bleached, dyed, 
 or printed. Here the final processes are so slight, in 
 comparison with the value of the material operated up- 
 on, that the censuses of i860, 1880, and 1890 omitted 
 the latter from the report of the value of product. In 
 1870, however. General Walker included this value, 
 justifying himself by this reasoning : ' 
 
 " Allowance must also be made for the different treat- 
 ment of one other industry, viz., cloth-printing, in the 
 present publication, from that adopted at the eighth cen- 
 sus. At i860 the value of the cloth printed would ap- 
 pear not to have been embraced, either in the value of 
 materials or in the value of product ; but in the for- 
 mer only the value of mill-supplies, coloring matter, 
 etc., and in the latter the value added to the goods by 
 printing. At the present census it has been thought 
 best to include the value of the cloth in the statement 
 both of materials and of product. By this means the 
 net value created by the industry is as closely obtained 
 as by the other method, while just so much additional 
 information is given. Indeed, there seems to be no rea- 
 son for making this one industry an exception to the en- 
 tire list of kindred industries in this particular. The 
 fact that the value of materials here becomes unusually 
 great, as compared with the value to be added by the 
 processes of printing, certainly constitutes no difference 
 in principle as between this industry and any other. If 
 ' Idem, 378. 
 
Mamifactures in the Federal Census. 277 
 
 the subject matter of the industrial process is to be in- 
 cluded in the account when it amounts to three-fourths 
 of the value of the iiltimate product, there seems to be 
 no good reason for excluding it because it reaches five- 
 sixths of that value." 
 
 The reasoning is absolutely sound ; but the result of 
 its application in this particular case is so absurd that 
 General Walker himself, in 1880, again excluded the 
 value of the goods operated upon from the gross value 
 of the prodixct of the finishing-mills, as was done in 
 1890. But the duplication in tliis instance differs only 
 in degree from that which prevails everywhere ; and the 
 case admiraVjly illustrates the crudeness of the whole 
 treatment of this problem of the manufacturing statistics. 
 
 The text of the Eleventh Census, recognizing the fact 
 that the total value of products reported, $9,372,437,283, 
 is a fictitious total, takes a step towards an approxima- 
 tion of the true total, by deducting from the above 
 figure the whole sum, $5,162,044,076, reported as the 
 sum expended for the raw materials employed in creat- 
 ing it, leaving a residuum of $4,210,393,207, which it 
 describes as the " net value of product.'" In this pro- 
 cedure, it follows the example set by General Walker in 
 the ninth census and again in the tenth. It is an 
 unscientific method of dealing with the difficulty, and 
 unsatisfactory both in phraseology and in result. 
 
 The net value of anything is that value which re- 
 mains after deducting whatever may properly be charged 
 against it. In this case the census has deducted a great 
 deal more than can properly be taken away, and instead 
 of securing a " net " product, it has obtained a sum 
 which is not the true value of our manufactured pro- 
 ducts, but simply the value added to crude materials by 
 
 ' Eleventh Census, Manufacturing Industries, i : 28,f. 
 
2y8 American Econo7nic Association. 
 
 the manufacturing process. The true " net value " of 
 products is not the gross value, nor is it the added value 
 obtained by deducting the cost of materials ; but it is 
 that added value, plus the sum originally paid for all 
 the raw materials used, in the crude form in which they 
 first appear in any factory/ 
 
 I conceive it possible so to take a manufacturing 
 census that this difficulty of duplication will be elimin- 
 ated, and a basis thus obtained for accurate percentages. 
 It could be done by providing on the schedules two 
 columns for the entry of the value of raw materials 
 consumed : one column for all raw materials consumed 
 in the absolutely crude form ; the other for the raw 
 materials purchased and consumed, which have been 
 advanced by any process of manufacture sufficiently to 
 insure their return in some other branch of industry. 
 Raw wool or cotton would all be reported in column i ; 
 yarns, dyestuffs, gray cloths for converting, etc., in col- 
 umn 2. The net product of industry, in any branch of 
 manufacturing, would then be secured by subtracting 
 from the gross value of products the total value of the 
 materials reported in the second column. The result 
 
 ^ This method of the census leads to some curioiis coiichxsions. For 
 instance, in Kansas the slaughtering and meat packing business con- 
 stitutes 40 per cent of the gross value of the products of the state, 
 (Idem, 416-421), and in this industry the cost of materials is very 
 large, in comparison with the labor cost. The phrase adopted by the 
 census reduces us to the abs\trdity of saying that the ' ' net ' ' value of 
 the product of the meat-slaughtering business is the bare cost of kill- 
 ing and packing the cattle, i. e., |8, 560,000, whereas the materials 
 upon which this sum was expended cost $38,031,824. In the manu- 
 facture of coffee, spices, etc. (/. e., their roasting, grinding, and 
 preparation for market), the cost of the materials as returned to the 
 eleventh census, was $65,961,465, and the value of the product was 
 $75,042,010, [Idem, 75), so that the " net value," as thus ascertained, 
 was only $9,080,545. In the lard industry the "net" value of the 
 product is reduced to $2,820,488, although the cost of materials was 
 $12,654,360, (Idem, 79). 
 
Manufactures in the Federal Census. 279 
 
 would be the apparent value, at the factories, of the pro- 
 ducts of the factories. There would be no duplications ; 
 and yet the value of all crude materials consumed would 
 be represented in the resulting total, as it should be. 
 We should then know the value of the factory manu- 
 factured products of the country, so far as it can be 
 measured by means of a manufacturing schedule — 
 something that we have never yet even approximately 
 learned from the Federal census.' 
 
 V. Defective Analysis and Misleading 
 Percentages. 
 
 We may fairly criticise the use made by the Census 
 Office of statistics thus avowedly defective. 
 
 The text of the Eleventh Census contains an analysis 
 showing the average value of product per employee in 
 each of the industries, calculated both on the " gross " 
 product and the " net " product, so called. For the 
 former it is given as $2,204 ; for the latter as $999 per 
 capita ;" and both figures are wrong, and necessarily 
 wrong, for the reasons just stated. The tables referred 
 to^ shonld never have been compiled or printed ; for the 
 elements entering into the average thus obtained are so 
 variable, and the conditions governing industry in each 
 of its branches are so wholly different, that they not 
 only possess no statistical value, but invite misconcep- 
 tion and false deduction. The only thing that can be 
 
 ' The limitation upon this plan is its failure to account anywhere 
 for the value of semi-manufactured raw materials, which may have 
 been imported. The quantity of such is not large enough to vitiate 
 the returns ; it would always be an error on the safe side ; and it 
 might be closely estimated from the import returns made by the 
 Treasury Bureau of Statistics. 
 
 ' Idem, 37. 
 
 ^ Idem, 34-45- 
 
28o American Econotnic Association. 
 
 said in their favor is that as computations the)' are 
 mathematically correct. 
 
 Criticism equally harsh lies against other statistical 
 presentations or mathematical manipulations of the 
 manufacturing statistics of the eleventh census. 
 
 One table presents " average capital required and cost 
 for a product valued at $ioo, by states and territories," ' 
 and another similar table shows the same thing by 
 specified industries.^ These tables indicate that in the 
 year 1890 the average cost of every |ioo of manufactured 
 product was $86.17. They are accompanied by a foot- 
 note explaining that the difference between cost and value 
 ($13.83) does not show the true average profit or earn- 
 ings of capital, because the cost reported does not make 
 any allowance for " depreciation of plant or mercantile 
 risks." It is therefore not the cost. So long as it does 
 not show either the profit or the cost of manufacture, we 
 must wonder why the table was made, since if it does 
 not show one or both, or approximate!}' show them, it 
 shows nothing at all. In this particular instance, an 
 additional vitiating feature of the figures is the duplica- 
 tion to which we have referred, of which the Census 
 Office here has made no account, and which renders this 
 entire series of calculations an instance of the official 
 dissemination of false information. 
 
 All attempts to present, from census returns of manu- 
 factures, percentages of relationship between the 
 several items reported (and they frequently appear in 
 state censuses) are scientifically wrong, and a con- 
 spicuous illustration of the abuse to which official sta- 
 tistics are subjected. The percentages of " labor cost, " 
 the percentages of " labor's share in the manufactured 
 
 ' Idem, 48. 
 ^ Idem, 49-53. 
 
Manufactures in the Federal Census. 281 
 
 product," the percentages of " capital's profit," etc., 
 which are frequently worked out from these statistics 
 are not simply meaningless ; they are, in the nature of 
 things, deceptive and misleading. 
 
 In the first place, they are based upon averages, and 
 these averages are in turn based upon conditions so 
 absolutely dissimilar that their combination results in a 
 statistical picture like that of the kaleidoscope. The 
 colored glasses in the kaleidoscope ahva}s fall together 
 in some symmetrical pattern ; but it is always a pattern 
 which has no relationship to anything whatever. The 
 man who is working with silk as his raw material, 
 worth a dollar a pound, will be shown to secure in 
 wages a very small percentage of the total value of pro- 
 duct. Another man who works in shoddy worth ten 
 cents a pound will be shown to secure a ver)- large per- 
 centage of that value. The wages of the two, let us 
 say, are the same. What, then, does the percentage 
 show ? Why is it calculated ? What statistical or so- 
 ciological value has it ? Shake the two together and 
 strike an average percentage : the result is more worth- 
 less than before. 
 
 In the text of the ninth census General Walker pre- 
 sented an admirable demonstration of tlie futility of 
 these vicious percentages.' He grouped the manufac- 
 turing, mechanical, and mining industries of the coun- 
 try into five groups, arranged in accordance with the 
 manner in which the character of the subject-matter of 
 labor affects the relations of wages to product. These 
 five groups range from those in which the materials, so 
 called, are intrinisically of no value until operated upon 
 by labor, like the products of mining and other extrac- 
 tive industries, up to those in which, as in diamond-cut- 
 
 ' Ninth Census, Wealth and Industry, 379,f. 
 
282 
 
 Avterica?i Economic Associatioji. 
 
 ting, the value of the materials employed far exceeds the 
 value of all other elements in the cost of production and 
 thus carries the value of the product in these industries 
 to a verv high point, although comparatively little 
 has been added to the original value. 
 
 Commenting on his table, General Walker says : 
 " The first class of industries, with a reported gross pro- 
 duct of $143,000,000, is shown to yield a net product 
 only $5,000,000 less than that of the fifth class, which 
 has a gross product of $841,000,000, while the wages 
 paid in the first class exceed those paid in the fifth by 
 131 per cent. Nothing, perhaps, could set in a stronger 
 light the necessity of. considering all statements of 
 manufacturing production in connection with the value 
 of materials consumed and the cost of labor. Here are 
 two groups of industries, the one reaching the gigantic 
 total of $841,000,000, the other aggregating but one- 
 sixth as much ; yet the latter makes a clear addition to 
 the wealth of the country equal to 96 per cent of the net 
 production of the former, and actually pav-s more than 
 twice as much in wages." 
 
 For the five groups his table, a part of which is here 
 reproduced, shows the following curious and instructive 
 results : 
 
 REi^ATioN OF Wages and Materiai<s to Product in Manufact- 
 uring AND Mechanical Industries. 
 
 I Dollars of 
 Class. |Wagesin $ioo 
 of Product. 
 
 Dollars of 
 
 Materials in 
 
 $100 of 
 
 Product, 
 
 I f5i 30 ! Jig 07 
 
 II , 23 07 ; 43 86 
 
 III : 31 20 '■ 34 28 
 
 IV I 20 29 56 62 
 
 V 3 77 84 10 
 
 Aver'geof alli |i9 40 $57 19 
 
 Dollars of 
 
 Wages and I Product 
 Materials in percapita, 
 $100 of ; gross. 
 Product. 
 
 161 37 
 66 93 
 65 48 
 76 91 
 87 87 
 
 I 843 51 
 1,400 00 
 1,376 84 
 1,859 10 
 8,285 44 
 
 Product 
 per capita, 
 deducting 
 Materials. 
 
 % 758 54 
 
 785 87 
 
 904 92 
 
 806 51 
 
 1,316 64 
 
 $76 59 ■ I1.967 80 
 
 $842 32 
 
Manufactures in the Federal Census. 283 
 
 In reference to this part of the table he says : " It ap- 
 pears that the value of the materials consumed in the sev- 
 eral groups of industries ranges from $10.07 to $84.10 in 
 each $100 of product ; that the amount of wages ranges 
 (going, so to speak, in the opposite direction) from 
 .$51.30 to $3.77 in each $100 of product, while the gross 
 product per capita ranges from $843.51 to $8,285.44, 
 and the net product ranges from $758.54 to $1,316.64. 
 The reason for these astonishing differences is not found 
 chiefly in any difference in the quality of labor, or in 
 the more extensive application of machinery in one 
 class than in another, but almost wholly in the treat- 
 ment of this subject of the materials consumed in the 
 successive industries and classes of industries." 
 
 It is superfluous to add to such a statistical demon- 
 stration of the fact, that any calculation of relationship 
 of wages to product, or employee to product, based upon 
 a combination of the statistics of many industries so 
 fundamentally different in the conditions surrounding 
 them, will tell a story that is without statistical signi- 
 ficance. The difficulty is inherent. Things which are 
 different from each other cannot properly be combined 
 for such purposes. Adding together all these figures 
 returned from all these unrelated industries for the pur- 
 pose of figuring percentages on the averages, is not 
 -essentially different from adding together bushels, 
 pounds and yards, and striking an average of the whole. 
 And yet it is done, and regularly done, in both national 
 and state censuses. 
 
 VI. Capital in AIanufacturixg. 
 
 Other features of a manufacturing census are equally 
 perplexing ; most perplexing of all, perhaps, is the item 
 of capital. The amount of capital invested in manu- 
 
284 American Economic Association. 
 
 factiiring has been called for in every Federal census of 
 manufactures. The worthlessness of the return has 
 been manifest in all of them, but Congress still insists 
 that it shall form one of the elements of the return. 
 J. D. B. DeBow, the superintendent of the seventh 
 census, gravely reported that the returns of capital and 
 product showed a return of 43 per cent upon the whole 
 investment, and he added that " the ratio of profits in 
 the several States is also given, presenting some anoma- 
 lies which cannot at present be reconciled. Those who 
 will examine the manufacturing returns of 1840 and 
 1820 will find still greater ones." ' That was a naive 
 superintendent who consoled himself for the promulga- 
 tion of a statistical absurdity by calling attention to the 
 fact that his predecessors had perpetrated even greater 
 monstrosities in the way of official figures ! Examining 
 Mr. DeBow's " anomalies," we find him showing, in 
 Missouri, a profit of 89 per cent, in Kentucky of 62 per 
 cent, in Texas of 83 per cent, in Illinois of 79 per cent, 
 and in Utah a loss of 116 per cent ! Those must indeed 
 have been halcyon days for manufacturers — everywhere 
 but in the land of Mormonism ! 
 
 General Walker was the first to point out the useless- 
 ness of the attempt to return capital invested, and he did 
 it with his customary fearlessness, both in 1870 and 
 1880. In the former census he said : ^ 
 
 The census returns of capital invested in manufactures are entirely 
 unti-ustworthy and delusive. The inquiry is one of which it is not too 
 much to say that it ought never to be embraced in the schedules of the 
 census ; not merely for the reason that the results are, and must 
 remain, wholly worthless, the inquiry occupying upon the schedules 
 the place of some technical question which might be made to yield 
 information of great value, but also because the inquiry in respect to 
 capital creates more prejudice and arouses more opposition to the pro- 
 
 ' Sevcn'-h Census, Compendium, 179. 
 ■'Ninth Census, Wealth and Industry, 381, f. 
 
Mamifactiires in the Federal Census. 285 
 
 gress of the enumeration than all the other inquiries of the manufact- 
 uring schedule united. IL is, in fact, the one question which manu- 
 facturers resent as needlessly obtrusive, while, at the same time, it is 
 perhaps the one question in respect to their business which manufact- 
 urers, certainU- the majority of them, could not answer to their own 
 satisfaction, even if disposed. No man in business knows what he is 
 worth, far less can say what portion of his estate is to be treated as 
 capital. With respect, indeed, to corporations having a determinate 
 capital stock, the diflBculty of making a correct return in this particu- 
 lar becomes very much reduced ; yet even here the difference caused 
 by returning such capital stock at its nominal value on the one hand, 
 or at its actual selling-price on the other, whether above or below par, 
 might easily make a difference of 50 or 75 per cent in the aggregate 
 amount of capital stated for any branch of industrj-. 
 
 Where, ho^\ever, business is carried on outside of incorporated com- 
 panies, the difficult)' of obtaining even an approximate return of cap- 
 ital, resulting from the nature of the inquiry itself, irrespective of the 
 reluctance of manufacturers, becomes such as to render .success hope- 
 less. So numerous are the constructions possible and even reason- 
 able in respect to what constitutes manufacturing capital, that any- 
 thing like harmony or consistency of treatment is not to be expected 
 of a large body of oificials pursuing their work independent!}' of each 
 other. The Superintendent is free to confess that he would be puzzled 
 to furnish a definition (fit for practical use by enumerators) of manu- 
 factiiring capital, cr, even in a single case, with complete access to the 
 books of a manufacturing establishment conducted by two or more 
 partners, and with the frankest exhibit of the assets, both of the firm 
 and of the individuals thereof, to make up a statement of the capital 
 of the concern, in respect to which he would feel any assurance. 
 When to such difRculties in the nature of the subject is added the 
 reluctance of manufacturers to answer an inquiry of this character, it 
 may fairly be assumed, in advance of any enumerations, that the 
 results will be of the slightest possible value. 
 
 It is greatl}' to be regretted that the census should be encumbered 
 by an inquiry 3'ielding so little ; yet provoking so much opposition to 
 the progress of the general work. 
 
 The aggregate amount of capital invested in manufactures in the 
 United States, as by the following tables, is $2,118,208,769. It is 
 doubtful whether this sum represents one-fourth of the capital actu- 
 ally contributing to the annual gross product of 14,232,325,442. 
 
 It is a pity, and may almost be said to be a shame, that statistical in- 
 formation, in many respects of high authority and accuracy, should 
 be discredited by association with statements so flagrantly false, even 
 to the least critical eye ; yet, as the manufacturing schedule annexed 
 to the act of 1850 requires this return, and as there is a vague popular 
 notion that the statement of capital in this connection is of real and 
 great importance (instead of being, as it is, at the best, of the least 
 
286 American Economic Associatio7i. 
 
 consequence), the Superintendent does not feel at liberty to withhold 
 the results from publication ; but he feels not only authorized, but 
 required, by the facts of the case to brand them as he has here done, 
 in order that no one may be deceived by the show of authority they 
 present. 
 
 Returning to tlie question in 1880, after ten years of 
 reflection and another attempt to accomplish the im- 
 possible, General Walker repeated these conclusions with 
 equal emphasis and supported by additional arguments.' 
 
 Superintendent Porter, required by law to secure a 
 return of capital in 1890, made an anxious effort to find 
 a method that would avoid these scathing criticisms. 
 He held consultations with business men, and the form 
 of inquiry finally adopted was based upon their judg- 
 ment, as supplying a drag net by which all forms of 
 capital, directly or indirectly employed in manufactures, 
 could be reached, although I believe it was their judg- 
 ment that even in this form the return would be statis- 
 tically worthless. 
 
 The Massachusetts state census has subsequently 
 adopted a modification of the Federal schedule of 1890, 
 and in order that the reader may have before him the 
 whole present status of this capital question, I append 
 the two schedules in the form of a footnote.^ (See page 
 287.) 
 
 Here are discrepancies of a radical character, which 
 prove that, with all the thought bestowed upon this 
 question, there still exists among experts the gravest 
 difference of opinion as to what constitutes capital 
 actually invested in manufacturing. 
 
 Indeed, those who have attempted to meet General 
 Walker's criticism, by formulating schedules to include 
 credit capital with that actually and permanently in- 
 vested in manufacturing, have had no clear conception 
 'Tenth Census, 2 : xxxix. 
 
Maiiiifadures i?t the Federal Census. 
 
 287 
 
 of the intricacies of the problem. They have never 
 attempted a restrictive definition of what constitntes 
 capital for purposes of statistical measurement. 
 
 The Federal census schedule of 1890 is founded upon 
 the theory that the gross assets of a manufacturing con- 
 cern constitute its capital invested, and can properly be 
 treated as such, in combination with the gross assets of 
 all other manufacturing concerns. The gross assets of a 
 business consist of everything it possesses available for 
 the payment of its debts, and into them enters to a 
 greater or less degree the credit of the establishment 
 which has been used in accumulating these assets. The 
 extent to which a manufacturer utilizes his credit varies 
 from day to day and month to month, often by very 
 
 2 QUESTIONS REGARDING CAPITAL IN MANUFACTURES. 
 
 U. S. ELEVENTH CENSUS. 
 
 MASS. CENSUS, 1895. 
 
 Capital Invested (Both Owned 
 AND Borrowed.) 
 
 Value of plant (the value should be esti- 
 mated at what the works would cost in 
 1890, if then to be erected, with such al- 
 lowance for depreciation as may be suit- 
 able in the individual case.) 
 
 Land . . $ _^_ , 
 
 Buildings , . $ „ 
 
 Machinery, tools, and 
 implements . . . $ 
 
 Live capital : 
 
 Raw materials on hand . $_ 
 
 Stock in process, and fin- 
 ished products on hand 
 (estimate value of fin- 
 ished products on hand 
 at their present selling' 
 value) . . $_ 
 
 Cash on hand, bills receiv- 
 able, unsettled ledger 
 accounts, and sundries 
 not included in any of 
 foregoing items . $_ 
 
 Total . 
 
 Capital Invested, 
 
 Classification. 
 
 33- 
 Amount. 
 
 25. Land. 
 
 26. Buildings and Fixtures. 
 
 27. Machinery and Motive 
 Power. 
 
 28. Implements and Tools. S 
 
 29. Cash. 
 
 $ 
 
 30. Credit Capital. 
 
 $ 
 
 31. Stock on hand (raw and 
 in process of manufac- 
 ture.) 
 
 $ 
 
 32. Total Capital Invested. 
 
 $ 
 
288 American Economic Association. 
 
 large amounts. It is clear that his credit and his capital 
 are two distinct things, fundamentally different in their 
 relations to the conduct of his business, although they 
 discharge the same functions. The borrowing capacity 
 of a concern is not the sum which it actually borrows in 
 its business, but the sum which it might borrow if busi- 
 ness exigencies required. Credit is an intangible, 
 elusive, elastic thing, indefinitely expansive, and subject 
 to sudden contraction under financial panic. Capital is 
 a tangible thing, which can be measured by fixed units. 
 In combining the two under one head, the census has 
 opened its returns to a criticism very different from that 
 made by General Walker, but, from the point of view of 
 scientific statistics, equally fatal. 
 
 The part which credit plays in carrying on the pro- 
 ductive industries of the country is enormous and indis- 
 pensable, but it is not a part that is susceptible of sta- 
 tistical measurement. A given sum of money often 
 stands for transactions which aggregate three or four 
 times its amount. These instruments of exchange rest 
 primarily upon credit or confidence, and permit a volume 
 of business enormously greater than would be possible 
 if an actual dollar had to be exchanged for every trans- 
 action which represents a dollar. 
 
 The Federal census, by calling gross assets capital, 
 harnesses up credit with capital, and thus commits itself 
 to the statistical measurement of a thing which has no 
 existence outside the confidence which business men 
 have in each other. The pretended capital which has 
 been created by these instruments of exchange has no 
 existence whatever ; at the end of the operation there is 
 merely the original capital restored, increased according 
 to circumstances by the profits which its use in opera- 
 tion may have produced and which have been divided 
 
Manufachires in the Federal Census. 289 
 
 between debtor and creditor. Credit thus multiplies 
 the producing and consuming power of society by 
 facilitating exchange ; it accelerates and thus increases 
 this power, but it does not increase the actual capital of 
 the country, or the actual capital employed in manu- 
 facturing. 
 
 Let us see how it operates in a concrete case. One 
 mill reports, as its gross assets or capital, everything it 
 has in the shape of plant, stock, product, cash, bills 
 receivable, etc. Included in the latter will be the notes 
 of another mill given in payment for $100,000 worth 
 of print cloths. In the statement of the other mill will 
 appear $100,000 worth of print cloths for which those 
 notes have been given ; the census gets $200,000, only 
 half of which is actual capital, the other half being 
 credit. Let us suppose that the second mill has an 
 opportunity to sell these print cloths to a third mill at a 
 profit, receiving in exchange therefor the latter's notes. 
 The reports of the three mills will then show in the 
 census a fictitious total of $300,000, plus two profits, 
 which sum, when the transactions are finally completed, 
 will resolve itself back into $100,000 plus the profits. 
 The census return presumes that two distinct amounts 
 of $100,000 each have been created, both of which dis- 
 appear when the time of the maturity of the notes 
 arrives. Inasmuch as the unsettled transactions be- 
 tween mills in related industries are at all times enor- 
 mous, it is easy to conceive that the amount of duplica- 
 tion represented in the total capital reported must be 
 frightful. 
 
 Independently of whether the resulting total is too 
 large or too small to fit the inherent probabilities of the 
 case, it is clear that the result is a purely arbitrary 
 
 I 9 
 
290 American Economic Association. 
 
 figure, bearing no fixed relationship to any other return 
 on the manufacturing schedule, and an attempt to meas- 
 ure iti figures something which, so far as we can now 
 see, is not susceptible of statistical measurement. 
 
 The Massachusetts state census of 1895 rejects the 
 theory that gross assets constitute manufacturing capi- 
 tal, and attempts to limit its return to capital actually 
 devoted to production. It includes, in capital invested, 
 the value of raw materials on hand and of goods in 
 process of manufacture ; but it excludes three items 
 covered by the Federal census of 1890; viz., (a) finished 
 products on hand, {p) bills receivable, and {c) ledger 
 accounts. It makes this explanation :' 
 
 Undoubtedly these items should be included, if it is desired to 
 know the assets of the establishments ; but it seems equally clear 
 that none of them should be included, if the aggregate is to show 
 only the capital devoted to production. The item " goods on hand " 
 is product, not capital. It is an asset, of course, but by so much as 
 capital is increased by including it, the deductions which follow in 
 the census report as to "Amount of capital required to a product 
 value of Jioo," and especially deductions as to the relation of profit 
 to capital, sure to be made, are invalidated. 
 
 This statement is astonishing for its tacit admission 
 that deductions " sure to be made " from the census 
 statistics, as to the relation of profit to capital, are per- 
 missible and possible. Inasmuch as no scheme is con- 
 ceivable whereby it is possible to approximate a state- 
 ment of the profits of manufacturing, since the element 
 of sales, or prices obtained, is eliminated from the 
 account, — the " value at the factory " being the only 
 value ever taken, and since every census disclaims with 
 all possible emphasis any attempt to measure profits, we 
 are at a loss to understand why the Massachusetts census 
 should hint at the possibility or propriety of such deduc- 
 tions under its scheme of reporting capital. 
 
 ^ Massachusetts Census of 1895, 5 : 222. 
 
Manufactures in the Federal Census. 291 
 
 It is astonishing again in its suggestion that capital 
 is not actually employed in manufacturing, unless its 
 employment has to do directly with the productive pro- 
 cesses. Whatever may be the amount of money locked 
 up in goods on hand, that sum is just as much a part of 
 the money required for and employed in carrying on the 
 manufacturing business as though it were tied up in 
 machinery and plant. Nor is it duplicated in any of 
 the other items under which capital is reported. 
 
 As a result of these eliminations, we get in the Mass- 
 achusetts census of 1895, ^ total investment stated at 
 $516,082,557, required to produce a product valued at 
 $849,807,302.' Comparing these returns with those of 
 the Massachusetcs census of 1885, in which the first at- 
 tempt to include credit capital in a census was made, 
 and with the Federal census of 1890, we have the fol- 
 lowing comparative results for that state : 
 
 
 
 
 Product per 
 
 
 Capital. 
 
 Product. 
 
 $1,000 of 
 Capital. 
 
 Mass. Census, 1885 ^ 
 
 fcoo,594,377 
 
 ^674,634,269 
 
 $1,347.66 
 
 Federal Census, 1890 '__ 
 
 630,032,341 
 
 888,160,403 
 
 1,409.70 
 
 Mass. Census, 1895 
 
 516,082,557 . 
 
 849,807,302 
 
 1,646.65 
 
 Thus we find that the three consecutive attempts 
 which have been made to secure what is called a 
 " complete " return of the capital invested in manu- 
 facturing in Massachusetts are so totally out of joint 
 with each other as to discredit all of them. With- 
 out any means of ascertaining which is right, as estab- 
 lishing a true ratio between product and capital, the in- 
 vestigator must conclude that all are wrong and worth- 
 less. The one thing we do know about the matter is 
 directly contrary to the inference of these figures ; we 
 know that the product per $1,000 of capital employed, 
 
 ' Idem, ii'}, and 228. 
 
 ^ Mass. Census of 1885, 2 ; Ixxxv and xciii. 
 
 ' Eleventh Census, Manufacturing Industries, i : 68. 
 
292 American Economic Association. 
 
 when measured by value, instead of increasing as indi- 
 cated by these figures, has shown a steady tendency to 
 decrease. It would seem that this is a matter of such 
 vital importance, in its relation to the economic situation 
 of industry, as to forbid the government, whether nation- 
 al or state, to trifle with it in this manner. 
 
 The worthlessness of the eleventh census returns of 
 capital is again demonstrated by the following table, 
 showing the capital reported to each $100 of product in 
 the several branches of textile industry.' 
 
 V/oolen, including hosiery and knit goods 5 87.7 
 
 Cotton 132. 1 
 
 Silk 5S.4 
 
 Dyeing and Finishing I33-I 
 
 That no such discrepancy as this exists, or can by any 
 possibility exist, in the financial resources required to 
 carry on these se\'eral industries, is patent. 
 
 But the difficulty is not alone with the live capital, 
 so called, whether the same be owned or borrowed ; it is 
 equally difficult to deal properly with what is called 
 fixed capital., or plant. 
 
 The census schedule of 1890 directed that "the value 
 of the plant should be estimated at the probable cost of the 
 works if erected in 1890, with such allowance for depre- 
 ciation as may be suitable in each individual case."^ 
 Now, it is obvious that this is not a call for the capital 
 invested in the plant, but for the present market value 
 of the plant, as estimated by its owner, which is a very 
 different thing, and a thing subject to so many varying 
 conditions, dependent on so many contingencies, as to 
 have no definite relation to the amount of capital actual- 
 ly invested. If we were reporting the capital invested 
 in mortgages we would be seeking a definite sum — the 
 
 ^ Idem, I : 49, if. 
 ^ Idem, I : 10. 
 
Manufactures in the Federal Census. 293 
 
 actual amount advanced upon those mortgages at the 
 time of record. But in seeking the amount invested in 
 manufactures we are seeking, not the amount actually 
 invested, for a large part of it — in fact, the larger part of 
 it — has worn itself .out in depreciation, in business fail- 
 ure, or in other ways. When the Census OfHce under- 
 takes to make a statement in dollars and cents of the 
 present face value of that capital, it attempts an impos- 
 sible thing. General Walker's language is none too 
 strong in denunciation of it. I am acquainted with 
 dozens of mills where the actual investment of capital 
 has been four or five times the present value placed up- 
 on the works by the managers or the assessors. I know 
 a mill that cost $150,000 and was running until recent- 
 ly, which sold under mortgage foreclosure the other day 
 for $15,000. There are at all times idle mills through- 
 out the country, which are not taken at all by the cen- 
 sus agents because thej' are idle. Yet they represent 
 invested capital none the less. In 1890 I made a special 
 inquiry regarding idle woolen mills, and found invested 
 in their real estate and plant over $6,000,000, which is 
 not included in the total capital reported for that indus- 
 try. 
 
 A mill is worth, suppose we admit, what it will bring 
 in the market, and therefore the census in calculating 
 capital should take cognizance only of present market 
 value. But the market value of mill property is con- 
 tingent : contingent upon location, transport, and power 
 facilities ; upon the character and market for the goods 
 it is making ; upon the business conditions which pre- 
 vail at one time and are absent at another ; upon the ef- 
 ficiency of the management ; upon the value of the 
 patents owned and operated ; upon a thousand and one 
 things which cannot be estimated in dollars and cents. 
 
294 America^i Economic Association. 
 
 So I say that the capital invested in manufacturing, 
 either as live assets or in real property, is a thing which 
 cannot be calculated in dollars and cents ; in other words, 
 a thing which cannot be statistically measured, and we 
 may well question the propriety of the attempt to meas- 
 ure statistically a thing which eludes all standards of 
 measurement. 
 
 The capital represented by buildings and machinery 
 rented for maniifacturing purposes is just as much de- 
 voted to those purposes as though it were directly in- 
 vested, instead of being indirectly invested. We may 
 conceive of two identical mills standing side by side 
 devoted to the same product, each worth j^ioo,ooo, one 
 of them owned by the company operating it, the other 
 leased — and perhaps leased from a principal stockholder. 
 By the census method of treating the matter one estab- 
 lishment is represented as having a capital #100,000 
 greater than the other, to produce the same value of 
 goods. In treating capital the eleventh census has ex- 
 cluded from its general tables the value of hired prop- 
 erty, although the amount is given in the text, perhaps 
 because it was necessary to estimate it on the basis of 
 the amounts reported as paid for rent. Thus estimated, 
 the value was #1,156,225,057, which, added to the 
 " direct investment," so called, makes an aggregate of 
 17,681,381,543, of which hired property constitutes 15.05 
 per cent.' The Massachusetts Census and Annual 
 Reports on Manufactures take no cognizance whatever 
 of the capital invested in hired property. It is im- 
 possible to understand on what theory hired property 
 can be excluded from consideration as capital invested 
 in manufactures, when money temporarily borrowed is 
 so included. Illustrations of this character suffice to 
 1 Ibid. 
 
Manufactures in the Federal Census. 295 
 
 show how impossible it is to draw conclusions of any 
 value or any accuracy from these returns of capital. 
 
 There is nothing so patent as the fact that the capital 
 that has been actually invested in manufacturing; in this 
 country is enormously greater than the aggregate re- 
 ported by the census. Manufacturing capital has a 
 tendency to eat itself up, to a degree unknown in any 
 other branch of enterprise. A well-managed mill com- 
 pletely up to date will charge off 10 per cent per annum 
 for depreciation and improvements made necessary by 
 perfected processes in machinery. If we estimate the 
 average annual loss at 5 per cent it is evident that man- 
 ufacturing capital must entirely replace itself, either 
 from its own earnings or from outside sources, every 
 twenty years. No two manufacturers, taking cognizance 
 of these conditions, will follow the same method in pre- 
 paring their reply for a census schedule — not because of 
 a desire to deceive or conceal, but because the whole 
 thing is contingent, and contingencies cannot be statis- 
 tically measured. 
 
 All this being true, what can be the propriety of con- 
 tinuing to gather this particular item in future census 
 returns of manufactures ? We have seen that it is an 
 attempt to measure a thing which from its very nature 
 cannot be statistically measured ; a thing which can 
 only be compared to the mercury in a thermometer, 
 which expands or contracts according to the conditions 
 of the temperature, and occupies more or less room with 
 each variation. The return of capital for a particular 
 month of the year can be no better test of the matter, 
 in its relations to the whole question, than the register 
 of the thermometer on a particular day is a test of the 
 temperature of the year. 
 
 We have seen that all the schemes of the experts to 
 
296 American Economic Association. 
 
 overcome these difficulties have been futile, and all 
 future schemes must be equally futile, by reason of the 
 inherent nature of the subject-matter. 
 
 We have seen that this is the one question which, 
 more than all others combined, increases the difficulties 
 of those who gather, and arouses the antagonism of those 
 who supply, census data. 
 
 We have seen that the government, in promulgating 
 these figures, puts the sanction of official authority upon 
 a statistical falsehood. 
 
 We have seen that the return of capital is valueless 
 for any statistical purpose, or as an aid in reading into 
 the other figures their true meaning and significance. 
 We have seen, finally, that more than any other figures 
 in the whole group of census statistics, the return of 
 capital is used to propagate false ideas of our social 
 status, and to justify conclusions from industrial statistics 
 which are delusive and harmful. Therefore I agree with 
 General Walker that they might far better be omitted 
 altogether from the census. Their presence taints and 
 invalidates the whole body of manufacturing statistics. 
 
 The objections raised to the abandonment of the 
 capital return are, first, that such an exhibit is necessary 
 to a correct portrayal of the wealth of the country and 
 its method of employment ; and, second, that unless we 
 have invested capital upon which to figure, the socio- 
 logical utility of the manufacturing statistics is largely 
 gone, and they cease to be of much practical utility in 
 the elucidation of problems connected with the relations 
 of labor and capital. 
 
 The answer to the first objection is that manufactures 
 are the only branch of industry in which this attempt is 
 made. In agriculture, mining, the fisheries, and mer- 
 cantile occupations no kindred inquiry is made, although 
 
Manufactures in the Federal Census. 297 
 
 it is quite as possible to secure satisfactory results in 
 any one of these fields. A better way of stating it is to 
 say that it is impossible to secure satisfactory results in 
 either field. Those who demand impossible statistics in 
 the census are like the child crying for the moon. 
 
 As to the second objection, it would seem to be 
 obvious that it is better to avoid all statistics from 
 which only false deductions are possible than to furnish 
 a fictitious official foundation for building a sociological 
 superstructure which is wrong. No computation or in- 
 ference which one may base upon this return, considered 
 in its relation to the other returns of the manufacturing 
 census, has any value, because we can never know that 
 it is even an approximation of the truth. It was a 
 famous saying of General Walker's that one census error 
 has a tendency to offset another, so that the aggregate 
 results are sufficiently near the truth for statistical pur- 
 poses. But from that statement the statistics of capital 
 invested must always be excepted. 
 
 Beneath this second objection, whenever and wherever 
 it is raised, there lurks another. Those who raise it 
 desire the statistics of capital retained, because they 
 believe these statistics furnish some basis whereby the 
 profits of manufacturing can be measured, and we have 
 quoted the statement of the director of the Massachusetts 
 state census to the effect that these figures always v/ill 
 be used for that purpose. 
 
 Congress has no constitutional power to exact a census 
 return which shall reveal individual profit or loss in pri- 
 vate transactions, and for that reason it has never been 
 attempted. Some of these later presentations of the 
 capital question come dangerously near to attempting it 
 by indirection. It is certain that they furnish a basis 
 upon which amateur statisticians and sociologists think 
 
298 American Economic Association. 
 
 they can figure a result sufficiently near the truth to 
 warrant them in attempting all sorts of silly calculations 
 concerning the relative shares of labor and capital in the 
 proceeds of their joint endeavor. Every possible deduc- 
 tion of that nature which can be drawn from census 
 statistics is false, and a breeder of mischief. For the 
 government to perpetrate statistics which it knows to be 
 false, and knows will be used for the promulgation of 
 false theories and deductions, is, in the language of 
 General Walker, a pity and a shame ; we may almost 
 go a step farther, and call it a crime. 
 
 VII. Classified Wage Returns. 
 
 Having spoken in so critical a spirit of many feat- 
 ures of the eleventh census of manufactures, it is a 
 pleasure to turn to another of which it is possible to 
 speak with unreserved commendation. The presenta- 
 tion of wage statistics in the eleventh census is as nearly 
 perfect a piece of statistical work, as it seems possible 
 to render this ver)' perplexing group of data, and far 
 superior to any previous presentation in the census. 
 The classified wage table, upon which its results were 
 obtained and by which they were tabulated, is the out- 
 come of the statistical experience and experiment of 
 many years, many bureaus, and many countries.' It 
 permits a photograph of the actual wage status in each 
 of the industries, which presents a faithful picture, such 
 as can be obtained under no system into which the 
 average enters as an element. Since all rates of wages 
 prevail, and prevail in all industries, an average of them 
 all presents a statistical dictum which, for sociological 
 purposes, possesses no more value than a calculation of 
 the average age of the people of a state or a community. 
 • Idem, I : 13. 
 
Mamifadures in the Federal Census. 299 
 
 The wage mean of a nation, or of a particular industry, 
 is of service, for comparison with the mean of another 
 conntry or another industry, provided we can be sure 
 that all the elements composing the comparison are the 
 same. The average wage, including men, women and 
 children, and including them in a varying ratio from 
 census to census, is of very little value, as Colonel 
 Wright has pointed out, "and is often vicious as used." 
 Whether this vicious use made of it, in view of the 
 extreme difficulty of correctly stating all the elements 
 which must enter into a true comparison, is not a 
 sufi&cient reason for excluding any such calculation from 
 the census is at least an open question. It forms the 
 subject of one of the severest criticisms passed upon 
 the eleventh census of manufactures. That criticism 
 rested upon the fact that the census schedule called for 
 the average number of employees and the total amount 
 paid in wages, and secured its average wage by dividing 
 one into the other.' That the result was not a perfect 
 average is apparent ; for the sum of total wages paid 
 was not paid to the average number employed, but to 
 all who were employed throughout the year. How far 
 the average secured is vitiated by lack of similitude in 
 the parts, it is impossible to say. That the method 
 adopted was the best that can be employed, I entirely 
 agree with Mr. Steuart in asserting. But it remains 
 a question whether the knowledge that the result is 
 faulty in the first place, and of doubtful utility in the 
 second, ought not to exclude such averages from the 
 census altogether. 
 
 Mr. Steuart's careful paper does not meet this ques- 
 tion. Neither does it satisfactorily explain the fact that 
 
 ' W, M. steuart, in Am . Journal of Sociology , 3 : 627. 
 
300 Ame7'ican Econojnic Association. 
 
 by the census of 1890 the average per capita wage of 
 all classes of employees was $484.49, while for the cen- 
 sus of 1880, the same average, based upon returns pre- 
 sumably the same, was only $346.91. The one thing 
 we do know, without the aid of " official statistics," is 
 that no such increase in average earnings actually oc- 
 curred between the decades. Hence we know that not- 
 withstanding the popular belief that official figures do not 
 lie, one or both of these averages is wrong. All the cir- 
 cumstances connected with the enumeration and tabula- 
 tion justify the belief that the error occurred in the 
 tenth census. That it was a clerical error, hidden away 
 somewhere in the multitudinous tabulations, is probable. 
 However it occurred, it is only another illustration of 
 the extreme fallibility of census statistics, and the great 
 danger of predicating convictions upon the outcome of 
 this vast mass of data, brought together from thousands 
 of different sources, by thousands of human agencies, 
 each with his own point of view, and tabulated by a body 
 of clerks to whom the figures mean nothing. 
 
 No two manufacturing censuses heretofore taken 
 have been comparable, in the strict sense, and it will 
 be a long time yet before we reach the point when that 
 will be possible. But we need not despair of them on that 
 account. The conditions governing manufacturing in- 
 dustry change so rapidly that they preclude accurate 
 comparison. The changes in classification alone, which 
 are necessitated by the steadily increasing diversification 
 and specialization of industry, throw comparison out of 
 gear everywhere. The constant improvement in census 
 office methods operates in the same way. In view of the 
 fact that no two past censuses are properly comparable, 
 I do not think that any census administration should 
 hesitate to adopt any change of method which involves 
 
Manufachires in the Federal Census. 301 
 
 obvious improvement in results, simply for the purpose 
 of retaining some semblance of uniformity. Actual 
 uniformity being impossible, every improvement should 
 be made when it can be, with a view to bringing the 
 method to a point approximating perfection as quickly 
 as possible. However, it should again be added that we 
 must despair of that until such time as Congress can be 
 persuaded to establish a permanent Census Office. It is 
 hopeless to expect a satisfactory census, in an)' branch 
 of the work, so long as the office is broken up and reor- 
 ganized with each decennial census. A temporary office 
 has no traditions. No appropriation, however lavish, 
 can buy experience in census matters. That which is 
 learned in taking one census is worth a million dollars 
 as a nest-egg for the improvement of the next, and an- 
 other million as a direct saving in the total cost — a mild 
 estimate of the expense of relearning it. The refusal 
 to make this office permanent is the most striking illu.s- 
 tration of the habit Congress has of saving at the spigot 
 and wasting at the bung-hole. Until the knowledge of 
 the errors and mistakes of one census is broiight directly 
 to bear, through continuity of service, to guide the tak- 
 ing of the next, we shall continue to have faults in this 
 work, for which no director can be held responsible. 
 
 In the meanwhile, this review has shown that no cen- 
 sus of manufactures, prior to that of 1880, when the 
 work of enumeration was first taken from the hands of 
 the deputy marshals and turned over to a body of men 
 which, however deficient, was at least homogeneous and 
 amenable to the regulation and discipline of the direct- 
 or, was in any sense an adequate or trustworthy presen- 
 tation of the industries of the country. The manufact- 
 uring census of 1880 was as far superior to the best of 
 its predecessors as language can describe ; and that of 
 
302 American Economic Association. 
 
 1890 was a vast improvement over the tenth. With 
 these consecutive examples of progress before us, we 
 have no need to despair of the ultimate attainment of a 
 manufacturing census free from all genetic criticism. 
 
 S. N. D. North. 
 
 ■JO Kilby St., Boston. 
 
The Report of the Eleventh Census on Manufactures. 
 
 Primarily the object of a Federal census was to obtain 
 a count of the people for the purpose of determining 
 the congressional representation. The census reports 
 of to-day are supposed to contain, not only the number 
 of the inhabitants with numerous details concerning 
 nativity, age, sex, and physical and social condition, but 
 a complete statistical presentation of the resources of 
 the country, statistics of the transportation business, 
 wealth, insurance, and reports on numerous subjects 
 considered by Congress or the Executive as worthy of 
 special investigation. 
 
 While the practice of encumbering the census with a 
 number of independent inquiries has resulted in secur- 
 ing and codifying a vast amount of valuable informa- 
 tion, it is not systematic, and has in a measure diverted 
 the energy of the office from the primary objects of the 
 investigation, viz., the presentation of uniform and reli- 
 able statistics that can be used in making those con- 
 trasts and comparisons that are most instructive and 
 useful for deducing sound rules for the administration of 
 government and for the promotion of the welfare of 
 society. 
 
 The consensus of opinion appears to be that the 
 census of 1900 should be limited to the three topics, 
 population, agriculture, and manufactures, and the in- 
 formation concerning each confined as far as possible to 
 general totals. 
 
 The Report on Manufacturing Industries in the 
 United States at the eleventh census is composed of 
 three parts or volumes. Part I presents totals for the 
 United States, states and territories, counties and indus- 
 
304 American Economic Association. 
 
 tries; Part II, statistics for the 165 cities that had a 
 population of 20,000 and over ; and Part III, detail sta- 
 tistics and text for a number of important industries. 
 There are more than 2,000 royal octavo pages of solid 
 statistical tables in these volumes, but they do not con- 
 tain much more than half of the detail that would have 
 been presented had the original scheme been followed. 
 
 In collecting the statistics of manufactures there were 
 27 special schedules provided for as many important in- 
 dustries, and one general schedule to be used in report- 
 ing all industries for which special schedules were not 
 furnished. The questions in all of the schedules were 
 uniform in so far as they called for the amount of capi- 
 tal invested, number of employees and yearly wages, 
 cost of materials, miscellaneous expenses, and value of 
 yearly product. But the special schedules had numer- 
 ous questions designed to develop detail statistics con- 
 cerning the industries to be reported on them. Many 
 of them were subdivided ; for instance, the schedule on 
 which the iron and steel industry was reported had sep- 
 arate sub-schedules for each of the following branches 
 of the industry : blast furnaces, rolling mills, Besse- 
 mer, open-hearth, Clapp-Griffiths and Robert-Bessemer 
 steel works ; crucible, blister, German, and miscellane- 
 ous steel works, and bloomeries and forges, making six 
 schedules for the industry. In the same manner the 
 electrical industries were reported on about 30 separate 
 schedules, each one having questions peculiar to a par- 
 ticular branch of the industry. 
 
 The schedules were prepared with the intention of 
 gathering data that would permit an exhaustive statisti- 
 cal presentation of the manufacturing and mechanical 
 industries of the country. If the scheme had been fol- 
 lowed to its logical conclusion, the results would have 
 
Report of the Eleventh Census on Manufactures . 305 
 
 formed an ideal census, but they would not have been 
 published before the time to begin work on the twelfth 
 census, and their magnitude would have detracted from 
 their value. But the theoretical results indicated by 
 the form of the schedule could not be reached, for the 
 obvious reason that it is impossible to obtain a report 
 on such a schedule, perfect in every detail, from each 
 and every establishment engaged in the manufacturing 
 and mechanical industries in the United States ; it is 
 impracticable to secure such a report for even the larger 
 establishments, say those with an annual prodrict of 
 $10,000. The manufacturers are not inclined to furnish 
 such details concerning their business, and the majority 
 of them do not keep book accounts from which the in- 
 formation could be obtained. 
 
 The schedules were probably theoretically perfect, or 
 very nearly so, but the detail considered essential to such 
 perfection rendered them in many respects undesirable 
 for a canvass to be conducted by inexperienced enum- 
 erators. The schedules for such a canvass should be 
 designed, not with the idea of developing detail, but 
 with the view of curtailing the number of inquiries as 
 far as possible, consistent with a full report of the total 
 values that it is desired to present. The schedules of 
 the eleventh census probably secured a fuller report than 
 did those of any prior census for each of the four totals 
 of capital, employees and wages, materials, and products, 
 because it required the items forming each to be reported 
 separately. 
 
 It is evident that the schedules of 1880 were not suf- 
 ficient in detail while those for 1890 erred to some extent 
 in the opposite direction. The schedules for the twelfth 
 census should be prepared with a full knowledge of the 
 
3o6 American Ecoyioviic Association. 
 
 results obtained by the use of the schedules at the two 
 preceding censuses, as well as the difficulties of the can- 
 vass in which schedules with numerous questions are 
 used. 
 
 Having in view the fact that the establishments 
 engaged in the productive industries are largely concen- 
 trated in cities, General Walker, superintendent of the 
 tenth census, caused the canvass in loo of the principal 
 cities to be made by agents appointed especially for that 
 purpose.' At the eleventh census 1,049 cities were 
 treated in this manner. The agents appointed to collect 
 the statistics of manufactures were paid by the day, not 
 by the schedule as were the enumerators. The results 
 at both censuses show that a more thorough canvass was 
 made of the cities than of the rural districts, and as 
 there were a greater number of cities canvassed in this 
 manner in 1890 than in 1880 the grand totals of the 
 later census indicate that a more thorough canvass had 
 apparently been made of the entire country. 
 
 Of the 1,049 cities canvassed by special agents in 1890 
 the totals for only 165 were published separately.^ The 
 totals for these 165 cities show that they contained 53 
 per cent of the establishments of the country and 67 per 
 cent of the total product. It therefore is evident that if 
 a careful canvass had been made of 1,050 of the princi- 
 pal centers of industry, reports would have been secured 
 from practically all of the manufacturing establishments 
 of the country. This was the intention of the eleventh 
 census, but, owing principally to the lack of time for 
 preparation, the canvass in many of the cities was not 
 thorough. 
 
 In no other branch of the census canvass was the lack 
 
 'Tenth Census. Manufactures. 379-445. 
 
 ^ Eleventh Census. Manufacturing Industries. Vol. 2. 
 
Report of the Eleventh Census on Manufactures. 307 
 
 of experienced employees and of a thorough organiza- 
 tion more keenly felt than in the canvass of the cities 
 for the statistics of manufactures. The necessity of a 
 thorough and rapid canvass is just as urgent as it is in 
 the enumeration of the population, but the work in the 
 1,049 cities was not thorough, and in fact the canvass in 
 the 165 cities for which the results were published sep- 
 arately, was not finished until 1893, three years after all 
 the data for the census were supposed to have been 
 gathered, and it was only accomplished then by sending 
 clerks and agents from the office in Washington to finish 
 the field work. 
 
 The canvass of the cities by special agents is the oul)' 
 satisfactory method of collecting the statistics of manu- 
 factures. It was inaugurated at the tenth census, and 
 while the system was not then perfected, it was adopted, 
 practically with no changes, at the census of 1890. 
 The only objection to such a canvass is the increased 
 expense. The reports secured b}- special agents at the 
 eleventh cejisus cost on the average, one dollar apiece, 
 and as a large percentage of them were for very small 
 establishments, such as dressmakers, boot and shoe 
 shops, blacksmith shops, etc., the results were criticised 
 as not justifying the increased cost.' But it is only by 
 perfecting this branch of the canvass that the early 
 publication of reliable data can be assured. 
 
 The preparation of the schedules ; listing the names 
 and localities of the principal establishments, to be used 
 as a check on the reports, appointment of enumerators 
 and special agents, and following the canvass to insure 
 a thorough enumeration, are all preliminary stages in 
 census work. They are, however, the stages on which 
 the whole superstructure is based, and if the. plans for 
 
 ^ E. g., above, p. 271, f. 
 
3o8 American Economic Association. 
 
 this branch of the work are not carefully matured, and 
 the work itself pushed systematically and vigorously the 
 census will be a failure. 
 
 The census totals for population, agriculture, and 
 manufactures can only be accepted as the results of a 
 popular canvass, which of necessity is more or less in- 
 complete. The results are not exact, and probably 
 never will be, but they come nearer and nearer to exact- 
 ness as the methods under which they are reached 
 approach perfection. The Census Office is not a per- 
 manent bureau and only two enumerations, those of 
 i860 and 1880, have been made under the supervision 
 of a person who had supervised a prior census. At each 
 census the foundation has to be laid anew and practically 
 the whole work accomplished by inexperienced persons ; 
 nevertheless an examination of the reports will satisfy 
 the most skeptical that there has been a constant im- 
 provement in every direction. 
 
 It has been the endeavor of the superintendent of each 
 census since 1850 to make a complete enumeration of 
 all establishments engaged in the productive industries. 
 These enumerations have included both large and small 
 establishments, as well as those conducting a mercantile 
 business in connection with manufacturing, and some 
 that possibly should not be classed as manufactur- 
 ing.' The theory seems to have been to include all in- 
 dustries that could in any sense be considered as pro- 
 ductive, excepting, of course, agriculture and mining. 
 Carpentering, masonry, and all the building trades have 
 been included, the value of the buildings erected or the 
 work done on them being accepted as the product for 
 the year. Millinery was reported, and the value of the 
 trimmed hats and similar work given as the product, 
 
 ' Cf. above, pp. 269-275. 
 
Report of the Eleve7ith Census on Manufactures. 309 
 
 also dressmaking, mechanical dentistrj',' and numerous in- 
 dustries carried on almost entirely in very small shops, pro- 
 vided the annual product amounted to five hundred dol- 
 lars. The statistics, therefore, do not pertain exclusively 
 to industries conducted in factories and now commonly 
 accepted as the manufacturing- industries of a country, 
 nor can the results be accepted as showing the exact in- 
 crease or decrease in many of the industries enumerated ; 
 for instance, there were 9,184 carpenter shops reported 
 in 1880 and 16,917 in 1890, or an increase of 7,733, but 
 all the carpenter shops were not enumerated in x88o, 
 and while a greater proportion of them were reported in 
 1890, it is known that they were not all returned. The 
 totals for a number of other industries, such as " Boots 
 and shoes, custom work and repairing," " Blacksmithing 
 and wheelwrighting," and " Clothing, women's, dress- 
 making," are open to the same criticism. These indus- 
 tries are referred to in the census reports as " hand 
 trades," and the number of establishments reported for 
 them can only be accepted as forming a part of the 
 grand total for all industries, which they increase when 
 the canvass is thorough, whereas they have a tendency 
 in the opposite direction when the canvass is lax. The 
 totals for the separate industries do not show the actual 
 increase or decrease from decade to decade, because no 
 census has succeeded in securing a report from all of the 
 establishments. Therefore the results are frequently 
 referred to as of no practical use and misleading. All 
 of the census totals are open to similar criticism ; the 
 totals for population, and for the different occupations 
 as obtained from the population schedule are not true. 
 Numerous omissions have always occurred in the enum- 
 eration, but the tendency has been to decrease them, 
 
 ' :Mecliaiiical dentistr\- was reported but in part. Cf. Eleventh 
 Census. Manufacturing Industries, 2 ; ix, x. 
 
3ro American Economic Association. 
 
 and it is only by persistent effort that perfection can be 
 attained. There is no method of determining the extent 
 of the omissions in the report on manufactnres, except 
 by a re-canvass, as no comparisons can be made between 
 the statistics of population and manufactures for this 
 purpose. 
 
 It is essential that all industries should be included in 
 a census that purports to show the productive forces of 
 the country. Reports should be secured from all estab- 
 lishments, large and small, otherwise the results will not 
 be a true indication of our manufactures. It is useless 
 to assert that the results do not warrant the additional 
 expense and difficulties attending the enumeration of 
 the small establishments, and that the statistics could 
 be estimated. It is impossible to prepare an estimate 
 for an unknown proportion of an unknown quantity, 
 and all attempts at such an estimate will be far more 
 unsatisfactory and misleading tlian the results of a can- 
 vass, even though we know that, because of tlie magni- 
 tude of the work, omissions have occurred. But the 
 factory system has now so thoroughly permeated all 
 lines of industry that it is essential some distinction 
 should be made in gathering and presenting the statis- 
 tics for the great and truly manufacturing industries. 
 This was attempted in a limited way at both the tenth 
 and eleventh censuses, but the magnitude of the work 
 and the limited time for preparation made it impossible 
 to perfect the scheme, except for a few of the most 
 important industries. The results of this effort at the 
 eleventh census are contained in Part III of the Report 
 on Manufacturing Industries. This volume presents 
 statistical details and explanatory text for i8 of the 
 principal industries of the country. The intention was 
 to present historical and statistical reports similar to 
 
Report of the Eleventh Census on Manufactures. 311 
 
 those on the Factory System of the United States/ 
 Petroleum and its Products,^ The Building Stones,'' etc., 
 published in the tenth census. This was found to be 
 impracticable, however, and the presentation was cur- 
 tailed so as to present the statistics and text for all of 
 the industries in one volume of 725 royal octavo pages. 
 The objections to gathering and publishing detailed 
 statistics of this character in connection with a general 
 report on manufactures are twofold. First, it tends to 
 multiply the number of different schedules and inquiries, 
 making them so complicated that the enumerators can- 
 not comprehend them, and the manufacturers hesitate to 
 furnish the details. Second, the statistics for many of 
 the industries have to be confined to a certain class of 
 establishments rather than to the character of products, 
 and the quantity and value of products are confusing 
 and misleading when compared with a general table 
 giving the total for all industries. For instance, 
 $430,954,348 is shown in the general tables on manu- 
 factures as the value of product for iron and steel, 
 while the special report on the same industry shows 
 $478,687,519 as the value of product. The difference 
 of $47,733,171 is accounted for by the fact that some of 
 the establishments included in the special report manu- 
 facture finished articles that in the general tables were 
 assigned to other branches of industry, such as iron and 
 steel nails, iron pipe, iron doors and shutters, etc. The 
 special report is confined to a presentation of the sta- 
 tistics of blast furnaces, rolling mills and steel works, 
 iron ore forges, and pig and scrap iron bloomeries ; but a 
 large number of the establishments, that in 1880 were 
 assigned to some one of these groups, now take the 
 
 1 Tenth Census. Manufactures, 527-610. 
 * Tenth Census. 10. 
 ^ Idem, 10. 
 
312 American Economic Association. 
 
 crude material and produce finished articles, such as 
 steel rails, boiler plate, nails, etc., so that the products 
 of the different establishments have no more relation to 
 each other than have the products of a nail factory and 
 a foundry and machine shop. The industry has under- 
 gone such changes that there is now no cessation in the 
 different stages of production, they are all carried on 
 continuously under the same roof and it is no longer 
 possible to classify the establishments according to the 
 character of the material consumed. 
 
 In the special report on chemicals and allied products' 
 it is admitted that the statistics do not cover all branches 
 of the industry, but are confined to certain selected 
 products, and the schedules from which the totals were 
 compiled had to be segregated and assigned to numerous 
 branches of industry in compiling the general tables on 
 manufactures. The text states, " Castor oil, glucose, 
 soap, and allied products included in the chemical re- 
 port of the tenth census, were not so enumerated in the 
 eleventh. Pharmaceutical preparations, ready mixed 
 paints, varnishes, and japans, reported among the gen- 
 eral statistics of manufactures in 1880, are included in 
 the totals presented in this report. Baking powder, 
 blacking, cottonseed oil, glue, inks, linseed oil, patent 
 medicines or proprietary goods, vinegar, whiting, and 
 paris white appear in the general statistics of manu- 
 factures for both censuses." ^ In other words, the report 
 does not present statistics for the industries it is sup- 
 posed to cover. 
 
 It is evident that with but few exceptions the special 
 reports contained in Part III are not exhaustive, and 
 that in the present state of industry complete reports of 
 
 ^ Eleventh Census. Manufacturing Industries, 3 : 273-308. 
 ^ Idem, 275. 
 
Report of the Eleventh Ce?isus on Manufactures. 313 
 
 this character can only be prepared either by a system 
 that follows a given material to a finished product, re- 
 gardless of the character of that product, or by a system 
 that considers a given kind of product regardless of the 
 character of the materials entering into it or of the es- 
 tablishments producing it. But as such methods are 
 not in harmony with a general census of all industries, 
 the two reports should not be blended. The special re- 
 ports have their value, but the methods of gathering and 
 compiling the statistics should be peculiar to the in- 
 dustry treated, and should not be abridged so as to con- 
 form to general rules made to apply to all industries. 
 The data should be gathered quite independently of the 
 general enumeration, and the statistics published in dis- 
 tinct reports. 
 
 The character of the information required for a cen- 
 sus report on manufactures, the methods of gathering 
 the data, and all the factors entering into their compila- 
 tion render them unreliable for the purpose of comput- 
 ing the various elements of cost entering into a given 
 unit of product, or the proportion of total cost that 
 should be charged to capital and labor respectiveh'. It 
 is frequently asserted that the Report on ilanufacturing 
 Industries of the eleventh census contains tables pur- 
 porting to show such facts. The tables' referred to 
 show the amount expended for miscellaneous expenses, 
 wages, and materials, respectively, in a product valued 
 at $100. The general summing up for all industries 
 shows the total cost of $100 worth of product to have 
 been $86.17, of which miscellaneous expenses formed 
 $6.73, wages $24.36, and materials $55.08, and it is ex- 
 plained that the remaining $13.83 cannot be accepted as 
 the profits or earnings for capital, because the cost re- 
 
 ' Eleventh Census. Manufacturing Industries, 48-53. 
 
314 American Econotnic Association. 
 
 ported on the census schedule does not include cost for 
 depreciation of plant or mercantile risks.' But these 
 tables do not, and from the very nature of the data on 
 which they are based can not, show the proportion 
 credited to labor of the total cost of manufacturing a 
 given quantity of finished product. The census sched- 
 ule did not solicit data on which computations as to the 
 total labor cost in the finished product can be based ; it 
 only contemplated a statement from each manufacturer 
 of the amount he expended during the year for each of 
 the three items of cost enumerated above. For instance, 
 a pig-iron manufacturer reports that he expended $500 
 for miscellaneous expenses, $3, 500 for wages, and $4,000 
 for materials. If similar statements are obtained for all 
 the blast furnaces, rolling mills, steel works, and other 
 iron and steel manufacturers in the country, the totals 
 will show the expenses under each of the three items in 
 the iron and steel industry of the country, and the pro- 
 portion that each bears to the gross value of product is 
 presented in the tables referred to. Such totals do not 
 show the proportion of the total value of finished 
 product that should be credited to labor. They only 
 show that for each ^100 received by the manufacturers 
 a certain amount was paid for each of the items of ex- 
 pense enumerated. 
 
 The value of the finished product of the blast furnace 
 is due to the manufacturing forces expended on it, of 
 which labor is the principal element, but it enters the 
 steel works, so far as the census reports are concerned, 
 as pure raw material and its cost is reported by the steel 
 manufacturer as the cost of his materials. In his re- 
 port he has nothing whatever to do with the elements 
 that go to make the value of those materials. But it is 
 
 ^ Idem, 48, foot-note. Cf. above, p. 280. 
 
Report of the Eleventh Census on Manufactures . 315 
 
 evident that in order to ascertain the labor cost in any 
 finished article the amount expended for labor in each 
 and every stage of production must be considered, and 
 the duplications incident to the products of one factory 
 entering as materials in another eliminated. Of these 
 ■duplications and re-duplications the census reports take 
 no cognizance, the materials entering each manfuctur- 
 ing establishment are considered as being in their pure 
 raw condition and no attempt whatever is made to ana- 
 lyze their value. In other words, each establishment is 
 supposed to commence and end business with the begin- 
 ning and ending of the census year ; no account is taken 
 of their operations before or after that date and no at- 
 tempt is made to analyze the values reported. There- 
 fore the census totals can only be accepted as showing, 
 and in fact they only purport to show, the amounts ex- 
 pended by all manufacturers for miscellaneous expenses, 
 wages and material, and the amount they receive for 
 their product. 
 
 The duplications entering into the finished product 
 and the proportions that the contituent elements of that 
 product bear to each other and to the total true value, 
 can only be ascertained by a careful detail investigation. 
 While such facts may in the future be disclosed by cen- 
 sus investigation, it has not thus far been the design of 
 the census inquiries to develop them. The census totals 
 as presented in all of the reports, and the official com- 
 putations based on them can only be accepted as disclos- 
 ing the simple facts of expenses and receipts. It was 
 supposed that each manufacturer could give reasonably 
 accurate data as to the amount he expended during the 
 year for miscellaneous expenses, wages, and materials, 
 and the amount of his receipts ; this was all the office 
 deemed it wise to call for, and in fact it was very difficult 
 
3i6 Americaii Economic Association. 
 
 in many cases to obtain even such simple data. But 
 having sucli fignres, it is obvious that but one calcula- 
 tion could be based on them, and that would be to de- 
 termine the amount of each item of expense represent- 
 ed in a given value received. This calculation has no 
 connection whatever with the proportion that labor cost 
 is of the total cost of a finished product ; such a calcu- 
 lation must have an entirely different basis ; it is intri- 
 cate, and of necessity an extended computation. It was 
 attempted in the report of the United States Depart- 
 ment of L,abor on the Cost of Production, and was found 
 to be possible only in a few industries where the differ- 
 ent stages of production were well marked. Notwith- 
 standing these radical differences, the census totals are 
 constantly qvioted as showing that the laborer receives 
 only 24 per cent of the value of the product of his in- 
 dustry. Nothing is more absurd, and the figures are not 
 capable of such construction except by the most woeful 
 distortion. 
 
 The total value of the products of manufacturers for 
 1890 is reported as $9,372,437,283. This total has 
 been criticised as misleading, in that it contains so many 
 duplications. It is true that if the processes of produc- 
 tion are followed step by step and the cost of the origi- 
 nal raw material increased only by the value due to the 
 manufacturing forces expended at each stage, an en- 
 tirely different total will be obtained, but that total 
 will not be the value received by the manufacturers for 
 their yearly products. The manufacturers are not in a 
 position to report any other value for their products 
 than their receipts during the year, and under the 
 theory in conformit}' to which censuses have heretofore 
 been taken, it would be impossible for the census office 
 to publish any other total as the value of the products 
 
Report of the Eleventh Census on Manufactures. 317 
 
 of industry. The total can be reduced by subtracting 
 the cost of materials, which amounts to $5,162,044,076, 
 and while the difference, $4,210,393,207, may come 
 nearer to the value added to the raw material by the 
 manufacturing processes through which it has passed, 
 it is not the true enhanced value of those materials, and 
 certainly is not the value which is received b)' the man- 
 ufacturers and out of which the business expenses and 
 profits of the year are paid. 
 
 The duplications incident to manufacturing when 
 carried on by different establishments is referred to in 
 the text of the census reports and $4,210,393,207 given 
 as the net value, or gross value of products less the 
 total cost of materials used, but no claim is made that 
 the amount represents the exact value added to the raw 
 materials by the manufacturing processes ; it is rather 
 referred to as indicating the method to be followed in 
 ascertaining such a value. The census inquiry as to 
 " product " was designed to obtain only the full value 
 of the year's production. No attempt was made to as- 
 certain what became of the products, whether they were 
 purchased by the final constimer, entered another fac- 
 tory as materials, or were destroyed by the purchaser. 
 The product of one establishment may have been cloth 
 and of another ready made clothing. The latter may 
 have purchased the wool and raw cotton and manufact- 
 ured the cloth out of which he made his finished prod- 
 uct, clothing, or he may have purchased the cloth from 
 the former, but with the character of the materials or 
 product the census had no concern. The amount ex- 
 pended for materials, no matter of what they consisted, 
 and the amounts received for the year's products were 
 the only amounts to be reported. The sum of the 
 amounts received by the cloth manufacturer for his 
 
3i8 American Economic Association. 
 
 cloth and of the amounts received by the clothing man- 
 ufacturer for his clothing, represents the value of the 
 products of the two establishments. 
 
 It is possible that in the future some other scheme 
 may be devised for collecting and compiling the census 
 statistics of manufactures, but until its practicability has 
 been fully demonstrated, it seems to me that the results- 
 of the year's business as shown by the books of each 
 manufacturing establishment should be reported, and 
 the total of all published as the result of the various 
 operations. After eliminating, as far as possible, the in- 
 comparable features of the censuses of 1880 and 1890 
 the increase in the value of product is computed at 69.31 
 per cent. This is an increase in gross values, and is no 
 indication of the increase in the actual productive forces 
 of the country, which is determined only by the increase 
 in the quantity of product. A given value now repre- 
 sents a much larger quantity than formerly, and there- 
 fore the percentage of increase in quantity would be 
 much larger than it is in the values. This excess of in- 
 crease in quantity is indicated in the census reports for 
 a few industries, of which the factory product of boots 
 and shoes is one. There were 125,478,511 pairs of boots 
 and shoes of all kinds reported for 1880 and 179,409,388 
 pairs in 1890, an increase of 42.98 per cent as compared 
 with an increase of 32.88 per cent in the value of 
 products. But it is impossible to ascertain the quantity 
 of products for all industries, not only because of the 
 great diversity in their character, ranging from the 
 rough log in the forest or the bar of pig iron in the 
 blast furnace to illuminating gas and electricity, but be- 
 cause, with the exception of a few industries, it is im- 
 possible to keep a record of quantities, and the informa- 
 tion is not in existence. The office therefore has been. 
 
Report of the Eleventh Census on Manufactures. 319 
 
 forced to accept values as the standard of measurement, 
 and while they are a reliable indication of business 
 prosperity or depression, they do not show the increase 
 or decrease in manufactures with the exactness that it 
 is desirable. 
 
 Accepting value as a reliable unit of measurement, 
 the use of the gross value of all products for this purpose 
 is not beyond criticism. The true value that should be 
 used is the value of the materials in the shape that they 
 first enter a factory plus the cost of all the productive 
 forces expended on them in the different stages of per- 
 fection through which they pass in reaching the finished 
 product, but this value is one that but few manufact- 
 urers are in a position to furnish. The gross value 
 when compared with a similar value may be accepted as 
 indicating the conditions prevailing at the two periods 
 compared. But unfortunately there are other factors 
 that tend to confusion in the use of these values ; for 
 instance, there is an increase of 86 per cent shown for 
 slaughtering and meat-packing, indicating that the value 
 of these products had increased in that ratio, wliile as a 
 matter of fact a large proportion, of the increase is ac- 
 counted for by the concentration of the industry. The 
 retail butchers, who were not reported at either census, 
 have given place to the large establishments, or are ob- 
 taining their products from such establishments and ap- 
 pear in the roll of merchants only, and as similar condi- 
 tions exist in other industries, the total value of products 
 can be accepted as an indication of the increase, only in 
 certain lines of industry. 
 
 The inquiries concerning employees and wages used 
 at the eleventh census were far more complete than 
 those of any previous census, and yet the results have 
 been the subject of more adverse criticism than possibly 
 
320 American Economic Association. 
 
 any other feature of the census reports. It is impossible 
 to secure a complete report of euiplo)-ees and wages 
 unless the general classes are designated. This was 
 realized when the schedules for the census were pre- 
 pared, and the classification adopted was : ist, officers 
 and firm members ; 2nd, clerks ; 3d, operatives, skilled 
 and unskilled ; and, 4th, pieceworkers. The published 
 reports show not only the average yearly, but the 
 average weekly earnings for the classes of employees 
 designated and the average number employed during 
 the year at stated weekly rates of pay. The objections 
 to the inquiries are threefold : 
 
 First The sum of the employees and wages given in 
 answer to the four sub-questions of the inquiry are not 
 proper totals to be placed in comparison with the totals 
 for prior censuses. The questions used at prior censuses 
 designated no class of employees, and it is evident that 
 officers, firm members, and clerks, and their salaries, 
 were not full}' reported, and therefore they should be 
 omitted when computing the average wages that are to 
 be compared with a similar average for 1880. The 
 average as then computed is $445 as compared with 
 $347 for 1880. It is probable that the average for 1890 
 is about correct, and the large increase over 1880 is 
 accounted for as follows : The form of the question for 
 1880 tended to obtain a number in excess of the average, 
 which of course would reduce the average wages, but in 
 addition to this, an examination of the original reports 
 and tabulations of that census discloses the fact that the 
 reports were not edited in the careful and thorough 
 manner that they were in 1890 ; that is, some reports in 
 which employees were given and no wages, or a trivial 
 amount of wages, or, apparently, an abnormal number 
 of employees as compared with the wages, were allowed 
 
Report of the Eleventh Census on Manufactures. 32 1 
 
 to stand and enter the tabulation in their defective con- 
 dition. While the number of such cases was not ascer- 
 tained, and could not be ascertained without a re-exami- 
 nation and tabulation of the reports, the practice tended 
 to increase the number of employees and to decrease the 
 average wages obtained when using the total as a divisor. 
 The form of the question and also the defective condi- 
 tion of the reports resulted in obtaining a lower general 
 average wage than the actual conditions warranted. 
 Therefore the defect, so far as the comparison is con- 
 cerned, is to be found in the reports for 1880 rather 
 than in those for 1890. But the defect was evidently 
 not very serious, for the census of the State of Massa. 
 chusetts shows an increase in the average annual earn- 
 ings during the decade from 1885 to 1895 of $95, while 
 the census reports show an increase of ^98 for the 
 decade from 1880 to 1890. 
 
 Second. The inquiry calls only for the average num- 
 ber of persons employed during the year. While the 
 average has been generally accepted as the divisor for 
 the total wages in ascertaining the average earnings per 
 employee, it is not the true number that should be used 
 for that purpose. The average is a number that, for 
 large establishments especially, can be ascertained only 
 by calculations which the enumerators and special 
 agents, as a rule, are not competent to make, or do not 
 care to take the trouble to make. The result is that the 
 true average number is rarely reported, and the divisor 
 is either greater or smaller than it should be in order to 
 ascertain the average earnings. 
 
 Third. That portion of the inquiry calling for the 
 number of persons employed at fixed rates of wages per 
 week did not require the different classes to be reported 
 
322 Ainerican Economic Association. 
 
 separately, and the result is that firm members, officers, 
 clerks, laborers, and skilled and unskilled operatives are 
 included in one general total. The results therefore 
 do not show the number of wage earners employed at 
 stated rates, but the total number of all classes, and are 
 apt to be misleading. 
 
 Notwithstanding these objections, the inquiries con- 
 cerning employees and wages were a great advance over 
 those of prior censuses. The inquiries under this head 
 prior to 1890 were so general that no check could be 
 made on the answers in editing the schedules, and the 
 results are certainly not of the character that should be 
 compared with those of the eleventh census for the pur- 
 pose of computing the exact increase. 
 
 I believe the reports of the eleventh census contain 
 about as complete a presentation of employees and wages 
 as it is possible to secure by means of a general canvass. 
 The statistics form a reliable basis for comparison with 
 the results of future censuses, provided the same form of 
 inquiry is used. The only change that I can now sug- 
 gest would be to separate the officers, firm members, and 
 clerks from the other employees in reporting the num- 
 ber at stated weekly rates of pay. 
 
 The census inquiries concerning capital were formu- 
 lated with the intention of securing the value of all the 
 property or assets used in the business strictly pertain- 
 ing to manufacturing, whether such property was owned, 
 borrowed, or hired. The several items were specified 
 as land, buildings, machinery, tools and implements, 
 raw materials on hand, stock in process and finished 
 products on hand, cash on hand, bills receivable, un- 
 settled ledger accounts, and sundries not included in any 
 of the foregoing items. The amounts expended for rent 
 and for interest were also required. The results obtained 
 
Report of the Eleventh Census on Manufactures . 323 
 
 in answer to these questions were certainly far in advance 
 of the showing for capital in prior census reports, but 
 all reports as to capital are, from the ver}- nature of the 
 items to be returned, open to criticism. The reports of 
 the eleventh census are the results of an honest, and 
 apparently an exhaiistive effort to secure a full return, 
 and the criticisms of them have been almost exclusively 
 on the theory that it is impossible to obtain an accurate 
 report of capital in answer to any series of questions 
 that may be formulated. 
 
 The amount of capital, including the value of hired 
 property, is reported as $7,681,381,543. A large pro- 
 portion of this total is of necessity an estimate, or rather 
 the accumulation of hundreds of estimates made by as 
 many different proprietors, and it can not be seriously 
 contended that each has made a careful estimate and in- 
 cluded all amounts that should be reported. The great 
 diversity of items, and the constant shifting of some of 
 them renders it impossible to secure an accurate return 
 even of those items that appear on book accounts. 
 
 Given a series of questions concerning capital that are 
 theoretically complete, a competent agent assisted by 
 the most willing, experienced, and well informed pro- 
 prietor will find great difficulty in securing a satisfac- 
 tory report. But this happy combination of an oblig- 
 ing, well informed proprietor and experienced agent is 
 something that is practically unheard of in a census can- 
 vass. The result is that the answers to this, the most 
 difficult of all census inquiries, have been unsatisfactory. 
 Complete answers to the questions necessitate a careful 
 estimate of the values to be placed on the real estate and 
 improvements. If this is owned by the proprietor he is 
 probably in a position to make the estimate, but if it is 
 not owned by him, the agent is forced to hunt up the 
 
324 American Economic Association. 
 
 owner, or estimate the values, using the amount paid as 
 rent, taxes, or some other equally unreliable factor as a 
 basis. 
 
 The value of the items of live capital, such as raw 
 materials on hand, stock in process and finished products 
 on hand are also almost entirely matters for estimate. 
 The instructions to the special agents stated that " the 
 amounts given in answer to these questions should be 
 estimated at the present selling value of such products." 
 These items, as well as the amount of cash on hand, 
 bills receivable, unsettled ledger accounts and sundries, 
 evidently contemplate that a particular day during the 
 year should be considered, and the values for that da}' 
 only reported. This is unavoidably so, because the 
 amounts and values of each of the items shift and 
 change from day to day, but notwithstanding the ne- 
 cessity for fixing such a date, the schedules and instruc- 
 tions are silent on the subject. In the majority of es- 
 tablishments operating under ordinary business pressure 
 it is probable that the amount of raw material on hand, 
 stock in process and finished products will not vary 
 greatly during the year, but it is not at all improbable 
 that an establishment may be operated under such con- 
 ditions that there would be a great variance in the 
 values reported for these items at different times. It is 
 certain that in the majority of establishments the 
 amount of cash on hand, bills receivable, and unsettled 
 ledger accounts depend entirely on the exact date for 
 which the report is made. All the questions in the 
 census schedule cover the business of the establishments 
 for one year, but the question concerning capital should 
 be limited to some particular date, otherwise the amount 
 of live capital reported will depend entirely upon the 
 whim or agreement of the agent and proprietor. 
 
Report of the Eleventh Ce?isus on Manufactures . 325 
 
 It has been suggested that in estimating the amount 
 of "credit capital" the interest paid during tlie year 
 could be used as a basis, and this plan was originally 
 contemplated by the Census Office, but, after mature 
 consideration, abandoned as impracticable. Credit capi- 
 tal was understood to mean, not the credit of the estab- 
 lishment, but the extent to which that credit had been 
 utilized. It is manifestly as impossible to estimate the 
 total credit of an establishment as it is to estimate the 
 extent to which that credit has actually been employed 
 in tlie business during the year. For instance, some 
 materials may be purchased on time and no interest 
 paid, while the bills of other materials carry interest. 
 Both are items of credit capital, but the amount of in- 
 terest paid is no criterion from which the sum of both 
 credits can be estimated. 
 
 The contingencies and intricacies surrounding any in- 
 quiry concerning capital satisfied General Walker that it 
 was impossible to secure reasonably accurate data on the 
 subject by means of a popular canvass, and he advocated 
 the abandonment of the inquiry, stating " that it ought 
 never to be embraced in the schedules of the census." 
 While it cannot be contended that the statistics of capi- 
 tal for the eleventh census completely meet the criticism 
 of General Walker, his objections to the inquiry as it 
 appeared in prior census schedules, and all other criti- 
 cisms were carefully followed in formulating the in- 
 quiries, and I believe the defective results are due, not 
 so much to the form of the inquiry as to the inexperi- 
 ence and lack of knowledge on the part of the enumer- 
 ators and the unwillingness of the manufacturers to fur- 
 nish information on the subject. I do not agree with 
 those who advocate the abandonment of the inquiry and 
 would prefer to estimate the capital, using the relation- 
 
326 American Economic Association. 
 
 ship between product and capital, and the general 
 knowledge of conditions prevailing in industry as the 
 basis. Estimates of that character can be made, and 
 they ma)' come very near the truth, but how near there 
 is no way to determine ; they will be rightly subject to 
 more just criticism than the results of an honest effort 
 to obtain the actual facts from each proprietor. If the 
 amount of capital is estimated, the value of the products, 
 not only of manufactures but of agriculture, can be 
 treated in the same manner, and the field for results 
 open to all kinds of criticism extended indefinitely. 
 
 To the ordinary business man the term "capital " in- 
 dicates an amount that is capable of being determined 
 with a reasonable degree of accuracy. It is only in the 
 exceptionally large establishments where the intricacies 
 arise, but from a practical business standpoint, no pro- 
 prietor would be willing to acknowledge that he did not 
 know how much capital he had invested in his business, 
 and this is especially true of large establishments. I 
 believe that all manufacturers who have any system 
 about their business have a definite idea of the amount 
 of their capital, and if they are inclined to fxirnish the 
 information it can be secured with as great a degree of 
 accuracy as can the value of products, or any other facts 
 connected with the census. 
 
 It is contended that in many classes of industry it re- 
 quires about one dollar of capital to produce a dollar's 
 worth of product. The census reports show that for all 
 industries throughout the entire country it required 82 
 cents' worth of capital to produce one dollar of product. 
 Estimates could be prepared to make these results con- 
 form more closely to a statistician's idea of the general 
 conditions of business, but to the ordinary reader the 
 estimates made on a theoretical basis and to conform 
 
Report of the Eleventh Census on Manufactures. 327 
 
 exactly to a preconceived idea, would not be accepted 
 with the degree of satisfaction that a compilation of re- 
 ports coming from individual manufacturers as to their 
 own business would be. From an exact statistical 
 standpoint all the census totals are untrustworthy, and 
 it is possible that the degree of error is a shade greater 
 in the reports of capital, but I do not believe that the 
 cost of gathering the data for capital bears a greater 
 ratio to its usefulness than does most of the census sta- 
 tistics. The expediency of retaining or omitting the 
 inquiries because of the opposition to furnishing the in- 
 formation appears to be the feature that should receive 
 the most earnest consideration at the next census. To 
 the ordinary reader the industrial statistics will be very 
 incomplete without some presentation concerning capi- 
 tal. 
 
 WlLUAM M. Steuart. 
 
statistics of Manufactures in Cities. 
 
 The earliest attempts to collect statistics of manufac- 
 tures in America were undertaken in colonial days by 
 the ministry of the colonies. Alv/ays jealous of indus- 
 trial growth in the colonies, and wishing to favor the 
 home manufacturer and exporter, the ministry would is- 
 sue from time to time a circular letter to the king's rep- 
 resentatives in America, calling for general reports on 
 the population, trade and industries of their govern- 
 ments. Taken as a whole these reports are of high in- 
 terest, but do not attempt to distribute the various sub- 
 jects by counties or sub-divisions. They are therefore too 
 general for determining industrial growth, yet served 
 very well their immediate purpose. At a later time, 
 when the states were still fighting for their independence, 
 the French minister to the United States set on foot in- 
 quiries into the resources of the different parts of the 
 continent. These inquiries were addressed to individu- 
 als, supposed to be the best informed upon the conditions 
 of their states, and the replies were sent to France for 
 the information of that power, then dreaming of de- 
 priving the English of their American commerce, and 
 desirous of monopolizing it for its own benefit. Again, 
 however, the replies were of too general a nature to be 
 useful in detail ; though, when brought together, they 
 are of value and are safe guides to the distribution among 
 the states of the leading commercial and industrial in- 
 terests. 
 
 On the formation of the national government Hamil- 
 ton began to collect materials for his notable report on 
 manufactures, and corresponded freely with his friends 
 and subordinate officers on the subject. The mass of 
 
The Statistics of Manufactures in Cities. 329 
 
 information thus gathered was the basis of his report ; 
 but the details have remained unpublished, and still ex- 
 ist in manuscript. As a whole, it could give the first 
 general census of manufactures by states and even by 
 districts ; but the many omissions and the multiplicity of 
 separate and individual reports would make any conclu- 
 sions misleading. As no rules for reporting facts were 
 laid down by the Secretary, but each correspondent left 
 to adopt his own method of selecting and reporting his 
 information, it would be difficult to combine the mate- 
 rial into formal tables, or even to compare returns received 
 from different correspondents in the same state or minor 
 division of a state. 
 
 In 1813 Tench Coxe prepared "A Series of Tables of 
 the several Branches of American Manufactures, ex- 
 hibiting them in every count}' of the Union, so far as 
 they are returned in the Reports of the' Marshals, and 
 of the Secretaries of the Territories and of their respec- 
 tive assistants in the autumn of the }'ear 1810 : together 
 with Returns of certain doubtful Goods, Productions of 
 the Soil and agricultural Stock, so far as they have been 
 received." This is the first formal connection of an in- 
 quiry into manufacturing industries with the national 
 census. The result was more curious than valuable, 
 though it seems not only to give a list of the industries 
 then pursued, but their geographical distribution. It is 
 scarcely necessary to add that the classification of indus- 
 tries is very imperfect, and the returns are confessedly 
 incomplete. In some cases only the number of works is 
 giveu ; in others the quantity of product is gi\-en but 
 not the value. The division of industries is hap-hazard, 
 and in only a few instances are the products consumed 
 in the mills mentioned or measured. With all its draw- 
 backs the compilation is interesting, and where the 
 
330 Americayi Economic Association. 
 
 count)' and city have the same limits, as in New York, 
 or wliere an important city is in a county, as Boston in 
 Suffolk, a crude understanding of city industries may 
 be reached. Philadelphia is, indeed, separated in the 
 returns, in deference doubtless to the fact that it was 
 Coxe's place of residence. 
 
 To this point in the development of the census the 
 question of labor had not entered. Much of the indus- 
 try of the country was hand work and pursued in the 
 family not as a distinct and engrossing occupation, but 
 at odd times, when farming operations were light. 
 The tables do not state whether the industry is carried 
 on by hand or by machine, though the general class of 
 " labor-saving machinery," confined principally to tex- 
 tile machines, might serve as a general guide. The 
 number of " mules," " billies " or " jennies " is given, 
 but that is no index to the number of hands. It was not 
 until the census of 1820 that the enumeration of labor 
 was introduced. 
 
 In the fourth census the marshals were directed to 
 return 
 
 1. Number of persons engaged in agriculture. 
 
 2. Number of persons engaged in commerce. 
 
 3. Number of persons engaged in manufactures. 
 
 But household manufactures were not to be included in 
 determining the enumeration. The criterion then for 
 deciding what persons should be returned in the third 
 class was the principal, and not the occasional or inci- 
 dental occupation of their life. Further, " in the column 
 of manufactures will be included not only all the persons 
 employed in what the act more specifically denominates 
 manufacturing establisk^nents, but all those artificers, 
 handicraftsmen, and mechanics, whose labor is pre- 
 eminently of the hand, and not upon the field." 
 
The Statistics of Manufactures in Cities. 331 
 
 All alphabetical list of manufactures was also given 
 to the marshals and the}' were directed to ask the fol- 
 lowing questions : — 
 
 Raw materials employed: i. The kind? 2. The 
 quantity annually consumed? 3. The cost of the an- 
 nual consumption? 
 
 Number of persons employed : 4. Men? 5. Women? 
 6. Boys and girls ? 
 
 Machinery : 7. Whole quantity and what kind of 
 machinery? 8. Quantity of machiner}' in operation? 
 
 Expenditures: 9. Amount of capital invested? 10. 
 Amount paid annually for wages? 11. Amount of con- 
 tingent expenses ? 
 
 Production : 12. The nature and names of articles 
 manufactured? 13. Market value of the articles which 
 are annually manufactured? 14. General remarks con- 
 cerning the establishment, as to its actual and past con- 
 dition, the demand for, and sale of, its manufactures. 
 
 Unfortunately the act imposed no penalty for refusing 
 to reply to these questions, and such answers as might 
 be given were to be the voluntary act of the manu- 
 facturer. He was at liberty to ignore them entirely. 
 Whatever returns were made by the officers of the cen- 
 sus were never published, nor v/as any indication given 
 by the Secretary of State of their completeness or avail- 
 ability. 
 
 It is safe to believe that the attempt was not success- 
 ful, and it is not necessary to examine in detail the 
 schemes of the censuses of 1840 or 1850. In the latter 
 year the schedule covering manufactures was more full 
 and included the average monthly amount of wages 
 paid for all the labor of all the hands, male and female, 
 ■employed in the business or manufacture during the 
 
332 American Economic Association. 
 
 course of the year." ' Again were the replies to these 
 questions made a voluntary act of the manufacturer, and 
 again was the information collected not published in a 
 collected form. The instructions issued in i860 were 
 similar to those of 1850, but the published returns were 
 compiled by counties, thus following the example .set in 
 1810. At the close of the war, in 1866, the House of 
 Representatives called upon the Secretary of the Interior 
 for a statement of the " aggregate amount of manufact- 
 ures of all kinds, of each city and village in the United 
 States having a population of ten thousand persons and 
 upwards, as shown by the census of i860." The result, 
 a pamphlet of four pages^ was the first compilation of 
 its kind, and marks the beginning of a published census 
 of industries in cities. Only a few facts were given : 
 the capital in manufactures, the male and female hands 
 employed and the value of the product. It is thus seen 
 that only a part of the information called for by the 
 schedules was thus utilized. 
 
 In the ninth census, that for 1870, the city returns 
 were not called for, and it was not until the census of 
 1880 that they became a feature in connection with the 
 statistics of manufactures. As the inquiry into city 
 factories would cover the larger part of the manufact- 
 ures of the country, the cities were set apart for special 
 enumerators. It was rather for administrative con- 
 venience than because of any scientific interest that this 
 was done, and the sparing use of the returns was good 
 evidence that the able superinteudent — General Walker 
 — did not lay stress on the division for any statistical 
 conclusions. In 1890 the separation becomes distinct 
 
 ' Seventh Census, xxiv. 
 
 'Ex. Doc. No. 29, 39tli Cong., ist Sess. 
 
The Statistics of Manufactures in Cities. 333 
 
 and a volume is devoted to the industrial statistics of 
 cities.' 
 
 It may be stated at the outset that the establishments 
 classed as " city " industries comprise more than one- 
 half of the total number covered by the industrial 
 census. In other respects the relative importance is 
 even greater : 61 per cent of the capital ; 62 per cent of 
 the employees ; 68 per cent of the total wages ; 65 per 
 cent of the cost of materials used ; and 67 per cent of 
 the total value of products. If the census were confined 
 to these establishments the economic results would be 
 quite as valuable as for the whole country, and in cer- 
 tain lines even more valuable, because the general 
 average would be based upon particulars more nearly 
 alike and varying between less widely separated ex- 
 penses. 
 
 The first noteworthy feature of- the returns of city in- 
 dustries as contemplated in the census scheme is the 
 immense amount of waste labor expended. The in- 
 clusion of " industries " having an annual product of 
 $500 or more fixes the limit of exclusion at too low a 
 line.^ To compare the general or individual economy 
 of an establishment producing a million dollars a year 
 in product with one yielding ^500 is out of the ques- 
 tion. There are some common features, it is true ; but 
 those features are of secondary interest. In wages, the 
 local trade union may control the rate paid in the 
 smaller as well as that given in the larger interest ; but 
 outside of wages, there are few comparable elements, 
 and the vital points are so overburdened with masses of 
 returns as to make a deduction from them an impossi- 
 bility. To place a single blacksmith or a carpenter in 
 the same class with a foundry or a steam furniture 
 
 ' Eleventh Census. Manvifacturing Industries, Part III. 
 'See above, p. 27o,f. 
 
334 American Economic Association. 
 
 factory is to do what must at once be condemned as 
 futile. The " average " is an ideal and inapplicable 
 figure. Yet this is precisely what the census does. 
 Further, in the returns of 1890 there are incomplete 
 figures for some very dubious occupations, such as 
 " dentists ", though professional occupations, to which 
 that of dentist is more closely allied than to mechanical 
 or manufacturing industries, are omitted. 
 
 In 1880 the industrial statistics of 279 cities were col- 
 lected, but only those for 100 cities were published. In 
 1890, the returns for 165 cities were published, but in 
 such a form as to make comparison with the returns of 
 1880 for the same cities almost out of the question. It 
 may not be a cause for regret that the schedules of 1880 
 were not used in 1890, for the latter are more full and 
 detailed ; but the incident shows in what an unformed 
 condition this class of statistics now is, and how in- 
 choate are the results for any practical purpose. 
 
 It must be Ijorne in mind that these city returns are 
 given to special enumerators, and are not covered by 
 the general staff. The city district is set apart, as it 
 were, from the general scheme, though reporting under 
 the same schedules. Further, the great industries, such 
 as iron and steel, cotton, glass or woolens, are entrusted 
 to " expert " reporters, and are thus more closely studied 
 than they could ever be under a general examination by 
 a reporter of the ordinary type and inexperienced in 
 technical detail. Yet these expert reporters do not 
 make any distinction between a " city " and a " country " 
 industry. The situation of an iron works or a cotton 
 mill may be influenced by local conditions ; but there is 
 no attempt to isolate these conditions so as to determine 
 the conditions that are common to the interests wherever 
 they may be placed geographically. 
 
The Statistics of Maiiufadures iji Cities. 335 
 
 Taking up the subject more in detail, and using only 
 the returns of 1890, a more precise judgment maj' be 
 formed of the special methods or usefulness of the city 
 industrial statistics. 
 
 The larger establishments are as a rule situated in the 
 cities ; therefore, if the figures are correct, they use the 
 larger capitals, employ more labor, and secure a better 
 return. The difference in the value of city and country 
 land would alone make a difference in the average in- 
 vestment of capital ; but this difference is in a measure 
 overcome by the larger amount of " direct investment " 
 in the country against hired or rented property in the 
 city. Bearing this distinction in mind, one is not in- 
 clined to accept as final the estimate that to produce 
 |ioo of produce in manufacturing operations, $63.66 in 
 capital was required in the cities, and $81.73 outside of 
 the cities.^ No conclusion can be drawn from that 
 comparison, for the detail of no two localities or no two 
 establishments in the same locality would be the same. 
 No general compilation of rentals or even assessed 
 valuation of lands and buildings could bring us nearer to 
 an appreciation of essential dift'erences in the economy 
 of manufactures. 
 
 The problem of " cost of production " is an interest- 
 ing one to the economist, yet no one would think of 
 accepting the census returns for determining that cost 
 in any one industry. Wages paid to labor and the cost 
 of materials used in the manufacture were regarded by 
 the census for 1880 as the leading and almost the only 
 elements in the cost of production. Some of the con- 
 clusions drawn from the census of 1880 on this point 
 were of a startling character, and directed attention to 
 a large class of expenses that were properly chargeable 
 
 ' Eleventh Census. Manufacturing Industries. 2 : xvi. 
 
336 Atnerican Eco7iomic Association. 
 
 in the cost but of which no account had been taken. 
 The estimates of profits reaped in certain industries, 
 based upon the census of 1880, were such as to lead the 
 manufacturers to insist upon the inchision of many 
 expenses incurred as " miscellaneous," outside of what 
 had been paid for labor and materials. The result was 
 the extension of the schedule on manufactures in 1890, 
 by a number of separate items as follows : — 
 
 Rent paid for tenancy, 
 
 Taxes, including internal revenue. 
 
 Insurance, 
 
 Repairs ordinary, of buildings and machinery, 
 
 Amount paid to contractors. 
 
 Interest paid on cash used in the business, 
 
 All sundries not elsewhere reported. 
 
 The interest on capital and the depreciation of plant 
 were not included. 
 
 For the whole country these miscellaneous expenses 
 amounted to somewhat less than one-tenth of the capi- 
 tal employed and were more in the cities, where they 
 amounted to 11.4 per cent of the capital reported.' Yet 
 it may be questioned whether the difference was worthy 
 of special investigation, even on the imperfect schedule 
 presented. Measuring the results by the value of the 
 product we have the following: "In the 165 cities the 
 materials constitute 53.57 per cent of the value of the 
 product, wages 24.97 pei" cent and miscellaneous ex- 
 penses 7.24 per cent. In the United States exclusive of 
 these cities the cost of materials is 58.14 per cent of the 
 value of the product, wages 23.13 per cent and miscel- 
 laneous expenses 5.70 per cent ; the total for these cities 
 being 85.78 per cent as compared with 86.97 per cent 
 
 ' Idem, xi, first table. 
 
The Statistics of Manufactures in Cities. 337 
 
 in the country exclusive of the cities.'" The real dif- 
 ference shown by such a standard lies in the cost of the 
 materials, but he would be an overbold statistician who 
 should undertake to base any conclusion upon such a 
 factor, when every item of cost must be traced back to 
 the point of origin, and all the varying conditions of 
 market and transport must be described. 
 
 So far as the returns of " miscellaneous expenses " 
 are concerned, there was little gained by isolating them 
 and by seeking to give them in detail. For the cities, 
 the total was $454,844,850, and the largest items were 
 "all sundries not elsewhere reported" ($161,601,894), 
 and "taxes, including internal revenue " ($112,597,927), 
 ' these two items being more than 60 per cent of the to- 
 tal.^ So general a class as " sundries " is worthless for 
 statistical purposes, and the census reporter expressly 
 states^ that the amount reported for taxes " cannot be 
 considered as an indication of the rate of taxes paid on 
 land and buildings," an almost unnecessary warning be- 
 cause the inclusion of " internal revenue " taxes would 
 have made the returns useless for ascertaining such a 
 rate. The favors in matters of taxation granted by 
 some states to manufacturing undertakings must be 
 known before the different amounts charged in localities 
 could be determined ; and surely a distinction should be 
 made between taxes on lands and buildings, those on 
 licenses or permits, and those on consumption. Upon 
 the whole I do not see that the extension in 1890 of the 
 schedules in detail in the direction of miscellaneous ex- 
 penses was called for, or has proved of service to statis- 
 tical inquiry, and whatever utility might have been ob- 
 
 ' Idem, xvi. 
 ' Idem, xviii. 
 ' Ibid. 
 22 
 
338 Avierican Economic Association. 
 
 tained from it has been neutralized by the failure to 
 publish the returns for the whole country in the same 
 form as the city returns were published. 
 
 The number of workers, their age and sex, would be 
 gathered under any conditions. It remains only to pass 
 ^^pon the merits of separating the city workers from the 
 country. In general the average number of workers,, 
 other than " officers, firm members, and clerks" was 
 14.02 for city establishments, and 9.69 for other works. 
 This merely tells us what was already known, that the 
 city factories are larger on the whole than those of the 
 country. The distribution by sex is a different ques- 
 tion, and on this the census has thrown important light; 
 but the same information could be obtained when ' 
 dealing with " occupations," and in quite as complete a 
 form. As to wages, averages are most unreliable. It 
 conveys no definite idea of the status of the laborer to 
 say that the skilled male in New York earns an average 
 wage of 5^594, while the unskilled earns ^434. It will 
 not add to the definiteness to limit the figures to the 
 makers of boxes, or of knit goods, or any one industry. 
 There is. no single line of production in any city so 
 homogeneous in conditions as to offer an approach to a 
 fair average, and those conditions tend to become more 
 different in the various cities, even in the same city. 
 No one can study the geographical distribution of the 
 ' business failures ' without being impressed by the fact 
 that the industries are in a state of perpetual movement, 
 and all their relations, internal as well as external, must 
 be modified accordingly. 
 
 What application can be made of the information 
 based upon averages, that the average annual earning 
 of a laborer in city factories is $491.26 and in country 
 establishments, $370.95? At first thought the figures- 
 
The Statistics of Manufactures in Cities. 339 
 
 might be accepted as evidence of a different economic 
 regime in the two descriptions of works. In reality it is 
 proof of what could be ascertained by a number of other 
 and really safe methods, that the tendency of labor in 
 cities is to rank higher in skill and in general qualities, 
 than in the country. Or, that the fact of the laborer 
 not having a cottage supplied him, adds to the cost of 
 living and so the wage must at least cover that. 
 
 In general the rent and wages of labor are higher in 
 the city, and the manner of housing the workingmen is 
 different. In place of cottages owned and rented to the 
 worker by the mill corporation, the laborer houses him- 
 self and his family. In place of a " company store ", 
 the ordinary distributing shops are patronized. Instead 
 of a monopoly in homes and supplies, freedom exists, 
 and the worker is more independent of the mill corpor- 
 ation. His wages are higher than are paid to his rural 
 competitor, but his expenses are also greater. He is 
 under the same influence that obliges his employer to 
 pay a higher rent and higher taxes to the city for his 
 mill than would be paid in the country ; but the advant- 
 ages of a city site may more than compensate for this 
 difference. 
 
 A number of conclusions might be loosely drawn from 
 the comparative averages, but only a few could endure 
 more than a cursory examination. For these averages 
 are based upon an immense conglomerate mass of details, 
 and as often as not include additions composed of very 
 different items. A mill enjoying the free use of water 
 power stands on another footing than the mill that is 
 run by steam. One that is situated on the bank of a 
 navigable river is in a more favorable place than a mill 
 far inland and obtaining all its supplies and shipping 
 all its product by rail. The cotton mill that is near the 
 
340 American Economic Association. 
 
 cotton field has an advantage of position over the mill 
 that must obtain its raw materials from a distance. But 
 the more distant mill may make a product of so much 
 finer grade or quality as to remove any real competition 
 between the two. E\'en in the same city two establish- 
 ments classed under one industry may differ so widely 
 in method and in labor as to have no points in common 
 save the name and the raw materials. The credit of the 
 mill is also a factor, enabling it to carry larger stocks of 
 raw materials or of product and at a lower cost than a 
 competitor not enjoying the same degree of credit. .To 
 buy in a low market and sell in a dear one requires capi- 
 tal to take advantage of the former condition and to 
 wait for the latter. The question of urban or rural 
 situation does not enter into the problem, directly or 
 indirectly. 
 
 In the reports of the National Department of Labor 
 the distinction of city and rural industries is not noticed 
 or made a feature ; nor am I able to trace more than an 
 incidental reference to it in the reports of the Massachu- 
 setts bureau of statistics of labor. It has not become, 
 nor is it likely to become, a matter of special inquiry 
 under these expert bureaus save as secondary to a social 
 investigation. The labor department of the English 
 Board of Trade has never entered into a general study 
 of the matter, nor do I find that the similar bureau of 
 the French government has so much as glanced at the 
 subject. " London " is properly one of the districts 
 into which the Board of Trade has divided England, 
 Just as " Paris " is recognized in France. But neither 
 administration has sought to take a census of all the 
 industries contained in its respective cities, much less to 
 obtain a " general average " of capital, raw material and 
 product. 
 
The Statistics of Manufactures in Cities. 341 
 
 I question whether there is any method for obtaining 
 acceptable results in this description of investigation, 
 without confining the inquiry to a few establishments in 
 one line of industry, which are working on nearly the 
 same conditions. In other words, I doubt if a general 
 investigation, even in the hands of the most expert, will 
 produce what can be recognized as good statistics. In 
 coming to this conclusion I practically rule out from the 
 census as a separate branch of inquiry city industrial 
 statistics. In my experience, I have never been called 
 upon to refer to the city volume save to decide a ques- 
 tion evidently caused by some local jealousy as to the 
 importance or rank of a city in a certain industry ; nor 
 have I ever quoted a figure from it except to show how 
 imperfect was the information to be obtained. I see no 
 good object to be gained by continuing the separation 
 in future census work, and it stands in the past as labor 
 expended on a non-essential distinction, unwarranted by 
 a scientific application of statistical method. Even the 
 totals for the whole country are open to grave criticism ; 
 but those for cities introduce a further element of vague- 
 ness, and tend to confuse by the added complexity. 
 
 While thus rejecting the city as distinct from the 
 rural industries from a scheme for a national census, it 
 does not follow that there is no field here for investiga- 
 tion. The best results can be obtained by taking up 
 special industries, and turning the study over to skilled 
 observers. The French Office du Travail has issued 
 two reports on " I^a Petite Industrie (Salaires et Duree 
 du Travail)," and confined the inquiry to Paris. The 
 one treats of " L' Alimentation a Paris," the other of 
 " Le Vetement ^ Paris." Both have been conducted on 
 general lines, and naturally avoid "averages." In like 
 manner the labor department of the British Board of 
 
342 American Economic Association. 
 
 Trade has published a special stud}' by Miss Collet on 
 the " Changes of the Employment of Women and Girls 
 in Industrial Centres. Part I, Flax and Jute Centres." 
 Here there is no such separation of city and country 
 establishments as is made in the census of the United 
 States ; but there are special investigations, limited in 
 scope and conducted on special lines, by an expert re- 
 porter. It seems to me that such material has a value 
 of its own, and sufficiently marked to warrant the col- 
 lection and publication. But it is very different from 
 that obtained in the general returns of the census, and 
 more nearly approximate to the reports on special indus- 
 tries included in that work. It is in this direction that 
 valuable work has been done ; but its utility would 
 have been lessened had there been an instruction to 
 treat city mills as something different from those not in 
 cities. I repeat, it is a distinction that is non-essential, 
 needlessly perplexing and should not be recognized in 
 any future census. 
 
 WORTHINGTON C. FoRD. 
 Boston Public Library. 
 
Wage Statistics and the Federal Census. 
 
 In the United States, the Federal census presents the 
 earliest official data concerning statistics of wages. The 
 censuses of 1850 and i860* made exactl}' the same in- 
 quiries upon this subject. In both cases the schedules^ 
 called for " the average number of hands employed ", 
 male and female, and the " average monthly cost " of 
 male labor and of female. 
 
 It must be remembered that in these censuses, as well 
 as in that of 1870, the enumeration was conducted by 
 the United States marshals, who, upon their regular 
 rounds, called upon manufacturers and gathered data. 
 No prior schedules were used, and the marshals received 
 only fifteen cents for each manufacturing establishment 
 enumerated.' Under the circumstances the work of col- 
 lecting data relating to employees and wages could not 
 be carefully and intelligently done, except in the rarest 
 cases, while the enumerators failed to visit any establish- 
 ments that it seemed convenient to omit. No great 
 value, therefore, can be attached to statistical tables 
 based upon such uncertain materials. 
 
 In explanation of the schedules employed, the enu- 
 merators in the seventh census were given the follow- 
 ing instructions :* " Under the general heading ' hands 
 
 employed ', is to be inserted the average 
 
 number of each sex employed during the year in the 
 manufacture or business. These numbers are to be es- 
 
 'It is not necessary to refer to the questions asked in 1820 and 1840 
 concerning hands emploj'ed and total wages paid. For the schedules 
 used in these censuses see Report on a Permanent Census Bureau, 140, 
 145, Senate Executive Documents, i, 52d Congress, ist Session. 
 
 'Idem, 148, 152. See also Seventh Census, xxiv. 
 
 'See remarks of General Walker, in Ninth Census, 3 : 391. 
 
 'Seventh Census, xxiv. 
 
344 American Economic Association. 
 
 timated either by an average of the whole year, or by 
 selecting a day when about an average number was em- 
 ployed, and inserting the number on such a day as the 
 average." " Under heading lo and ii, entitled ' Wages ', 
 is to be inserted the average monthly amount paid for 
 all the labor of all the hands, male and female, employed 
 in the business or manufacture during the course of the 
 year. In all cases where the employer boards the 
 hands, the usual charge of board is to be added to the 
 wages ; so that cost of labor is always to mean the 
 amount paid, whether in money, or partly in money 
 and partly in board ; and the average number of hands 
 and the average monthly wages are to be returned, so 
 that by dividing the latter by the former the result will 
 show the average earnings of individuals. This is also 
 to include the individual labor of a producer, working 
 on his own account, whose productions are separately 
 enumerated." 
 
 If the enumerators attempted to follow these instruct- 
 ions, it is evident that the average number of employees 
 reported must be in most cases a mere estimate, not a 
 true average. In the next place, the directions given 
 for a determination of average monthly wages were 
 highly unfortunate. In most cases the total yearly 
 wages can be easily and quickly ascertained. To at- 
 tempt to estimate average monthly wages with a staff 
 of untrained and underpaid enumerators must lead only 
 to confusion. Remembering, finally, that most of the 
 marshals did their part of the work as carelessly and 
 hastily as possible, we can conclude only that the num- 
 ber of hands employed and the average monthly wages 
 could not have been ascertained with even reasonable 
 accuracy. The average yearly earnings deduced from 
 such data must have been grossly inaccurate. The 
 
Wage Statistics and the Federal Census. 345 
 
 study of subsequent censuses will serve to reinforce this 
 conclusion concerning the wage statistics of 1850 and 
 i860.' 
 
 In addition to the materials just described, the seventh 
 and eighth censuses provided, in the schedules of social 
 statistics, general questions concerning the average 
 wages of farm hands, laborers, carpenters, and domes- 
 tics.^ In the eighth census the results were published.' 
 Of course the answers consisted mainly of conjectural 
 averages, and can possess but slight value, at least for 
 purposes of comparison. In 1870 these inquiries were 
 wisely omitted. 
 
 In 1870 the questions asked in the census schedules 
 of manufactures were greatly changed, and alterations 
 were made in the form of inquiry concerning employees 
 and wages. General Garfield's report had recommended 
 that a sharp separation of firm members and hired la- 
 borers should be enforced, and that the schedules should 
 call for the "Amount of wages paid during the year."* 
 
 The wisdom of both recommendations is too apparent 
 to need any discussion. The schedules finally adopted" 
 called for the average number of hands employed, males 
 above 16, females above 15, children and youth ; and for 
 the total amount paid in v/ages during the j-ear. 
 
 In the ninth census, as in the eighth and seventh, the 
 reports of the enumerators brought in results that were 
 
 ' 111 the census of 1850 the tables of manufactures have been found 
 "arithmetically imperfect," but it is not known whether the errors 
 are in the items, or the totals, or in both. See Ninth Census, 3 : 
 393. "ote. 
 
 ^Report on a Permanent Census Bureau, 149, 153. 
 
 'Eighth Census, ]\Iortalit_v and iliscellaneous Statistics, 512. 
 
 * Report of Committee on Census, 1870, p. 55. House Report, 3, 41st 
 Congress, 2d Session. 
 
 * Report on Permanent Census Bureau, 167; Ninth Census, i: 
 xxxi. 
 
346 Avtericayi Economic Association. 
 
 obviousl}' defective. General Walker caused special 
 investigation to be made by the Census Office, with the 
 result that thousands of establishments omitted by the 
 marshals were included in the report upon manufactures.' 
 The final tables were admittedly defective, although 
 much more complete than those of any previous census. 
 This is apparent from the enormous increase in the total 
 number of establishments reported.^ We must now 
 consider the manner in which the statistics of wages 
 were affected by the inclusion of this large number of 
 establishments not previously enumerated. This is a 
 matter of importance because the statistics collected by 
 one census have been compared with those presented in 
 the others. From such data, average rates of yearly 
 earnings have been deduced, and misleading results 
 have been reached.^ 
 
 With the frankness characteristic of its superintend- 
 ent, the Ninth Census states explicitly that the enumer- 
 ation of industrial establishments had been much more 
 thorough than ever before, although it was still far from 
 complete. It was shown that in i860 the census had 
 
 ' Ninth Census, 3 : 374. 
 
 ^ This number at each census was : 
 
 1850 123,025 
 
 i860 140,433 
 
 1870 252,148 
 
 1880 253,852 
 
 1890 355,415 
 
 Eleventh Census, Manufacturing Industries, i : 67. 
 ' The census volumes usually have compai-ed total wages paid and 
 the aggregate number of hands employed from decade to decade. 
 Prior to the eleventh census, the writer can find no actual computa- 
 tion of the average rate of wages of the entire country. See Eleventh 
 Census, Manufacturing Industries, i : 19. But many writers have com- 
 puted average rates of wages from tiiese census figures, and such com- 
 putations have been widely quoted as official statistics. See Carroll 
 D. Wright, in Atlantic Monthly, 80 : 305, Industrial Evolution of the 
 United States, 191 ; Mulhall, in North American Review, 160 : 647 ; 
 Jeans, in Fortniglitly Review, 58 : 752. 
 
Wage Statistics and the Federal Census. 347 
 
 returned, in its tables of occupations, 450,634 artisans 
 employed as painters, carpenters, blacksmiths, and 
 coopers/ Of these, only 39,389, or nine per cent, were 
 accounted for in the statistics of manufacturing and 
 mechanical pursuits. Now the total number of em- 
 ployees enrolled in the tables of all manufactures was 
 1,311,246. The omission of 411,000 skilled artisans in 
 these four trades removed from the statistics of wages a 
 number of high-priced laborers that amounted to 31 per 
 cent of all the persons enumerated. The census returns 
 showed an average wage of $289 for all persons em- 
 ployed : while carpenters received $429 ; painters, $415 ; 
 blacksmiths, $307 ; and coopers, $311. It is evident, 
 therefore, that the average wages computed from the 
 eighth census are smaller than they would have been if 
 these classes of skilled laborers had been more fully 
 enumerated. Now in the ninth census General Walker 
 took pains to secure more complete returns of persons 
 -employed in manufacturing and mechanical industries. 
 As a result, 155,000 artisans were enumered in these 
 trades, as given in the statistics of manufactures. This 
 was over 25 per cent of the whole number of such work- 
 men included in the statistics of occupations. This fact, 
 alone, must have tended to increase the average wage 
 that has been deduced from the wage statistics of the 
 ninth census, and to render difficult a comparison with 
 the rates of the earlier censuses. 
 
 Great changes were introduced into the methods 
 adopted by the tenth census in collecting the statistics 
 of manufactures. The superintendent was authorized 
 to withdraw the collection of such data from the regular 
 enumerators, and to employ special agents where he 
 considered such a method advisable. Accordingly, in 
 
 1 Ninth Census, 3 : 373. 
 
348 Amej'ican Economic Association. 
 
 279 principal cities and towns, the statistics of manu- 
 factures were gathered by special agents.' As a result, 
 manufacturing establishments in these largest industrial 
 centers were more fully enumerated than ever before. 
 
 From the copies of the schedules that have been pub- 
 lished' it would appear that the tenth census asked for 
 the " total amount paid in wages during the year " and 
 the " average number of hand.s employed," males above 
 16, females above 15, children and youths. These que.s- 
 tions were the same as those used in the preceding cen- 
 sus. In addition, the tenth census called for the 
 " greatest number of hands employed at any one time 
 during the year," and asked for estimates concerning 
 the " average day's wages " for a skilled meclianic and 
 for an ordinary laborer. Such answers as were re- 
 ceived to these last questions seem not to have been 
 published. 
 
 It is evident that the superintendent of the tenth 
 census thought that the statistics gathered concerning 
 the number of hands employed represented the average 
 number for the census year.^ But this was clearly a 
 mistake. An examination of the original schedules of 
 the tenth census has shown that the figures of the aver- 
 age number of hands employed, for nearly one-half of 
 the establishments, were the same as the greatest num- 
 ber of hands employed at any one time during the year. 
 In the remaining establishments the statistics of the 
 average number of hands represented the number em- 
 ployed during the weeks of the busiest season. As a 
 result, the tenth census failed to get the average number 
 of persons employed in manufactures ; and, instead, 
 
 ' Tenth Census, 2 : viii. 
 
 ^ Report on Permanent Census Bureau, 167. 
 
 ' Tenth Census, 2 : xxviii. 
 
Wage Statistics and the Federal Census. 349 
 
 secured a number " almost always more than the aver- 
 age and often several times the average." ' This is con- 
 ceded in the eleventh census, which states : ^ " The 
 questions used in 1880 tended to obtain a number of 
 employees that would be in excess of the true average, 
 while it is believed that the questions used in iSgo have 
 obtained, as nearly as possible, the average number." 
 
 A comparison of the tenth census with the Massachu- 
 setts census of 1885 will make it evident that the tenth 
 census secured a number of employees far in excess of 
 the average number. The Massachusetts census ascer- 
 tained the total hands employed during the year, and the 
 total wages paid to the 419,966 employees thus enumer- 
 ated. From these figures an average wage of $351.02 
 was computed.' The census of 1880 enumerated 
 352,255 em.ployees in the State of Massachusetts; and from 
 its statistics, the averages wages for the state appear to be 
 $364.'' These results correspond fairly well, when it is re- 
 membered that the Federal census secured in some cases 
 a number of employees less than the total number em- 
 ployed during the year, and therefore used a smaller di- 
 visor than was employed by the Massachusetts census. 
 Now, in 1886, the Massachusetts bureau began the 
 publication of its annual reports upon manufactures. 
 In these the bureau ascertained the average number of 
 hands employed, and used this number as a divisor in 
 computing average wages for the state. As a result, an 
 average wage of $395.89 was computed in 1886,'^ or 
 
 ' Ivetter of Frederic C. Waite, who made the examination. Pub- 
 lished in American Journal of Sociology, 3: 360-361. See also the 
 ■quotation from Carroll D. Wright, upon same page. 
 
 ^ Eleventh Census, Manufacturing Industries, i ■ 14. 
 
 'Massachusetts Census, 1885, 2 : xci. 
 
 'Tenth Census, 2 : 15 (folio page). 
 
 * Statistics of Manufactures, 1886, 51. 
 
350 American Economic Association. 
 
 ^.87 more thati the average wages in 1885 as shown 
 by the state census. This difference in due, of course, 
 to the employment in 1886 of a smaller divisor than 
 was used in 1885. The state census of 1885 took pains 
 to ascertain not only the total number of hands em- 
 ployed during the year, but also the number employed 
 upon June 30, 1885.' If we assume that the number 
 employed upon June 30 approximated the average for 
 the year, and use it for a divisor, we can deduce an av- 
 erage wage of $389 from the census of 1885. This 
 differs from the average wage computed for 1886, in the 
 statistics of manufactures, by only six or seven dollars. 
 A study of these figures will make it apparent that the 
 Federal census of 1880, like the state census of 1885, 
 really secured for Massachusetts a number of operatives 
 far in excess of the average number, and differing but 
 slightly from the total number employed during the 
 census year. 
 
 One other matter should be mentioned at this point. 
 The tenth Federal census did not ask for the number 
 of " officers and clerks " except in a few of the textile 
 industries." Its figures represent, therefore, the number 
 of laborers and the wages received by them in nearly all 
 cases, except those in which the persons who filled out 
 
 ' Massachusetts Census, 1885, 2 : xci. The total number employed 
 duruig the year was 419,966 ; while the number employed on June 30 
 was 379,328. 
 
 ^ In some of the textile industries the schedules called for informa- 
 tion concerning the number of " oiEcers and clerks." See Eleventh 
 Census, Manufacturing Industries, 1:13; Journal of Political Econo- 
 my, 4 : 89. In the cotton industry the number of such persons as 
 "ofEcers and clerks" is given as 2,115 ; but tlieir wages are not in- 
 cluded in the total wages, and they are excluded from the total num- 
 ber employed. Tenth Census, 2: 955 (folio page). In the woolen 
 industry, on the other hand, 1,302 officers and clerks are included in 
 the table of total employees, and probably their wages are also includ - 
 ed. Tenth Census, 2 : 967 (folio page). 
 
Wage Statistics and the Federal Census. 351 
 
 the schedules reported the number of officers and clerks 
 with the other employees. When this was done, Mr. 
 Waite found that the officers and clerks " were not 
 credited with any wages except in exceedingly few 
 cases ".' 
 
 In addition to the data contained in the statistics of 
 manufactures, the tenth census devoted a special volume 
 to the subject of wages." This was prepared under the 
 careful direction of Mr. Joseph D. Weeks. It related to 
 wages in fifty-three of the more important manufactur- 
 ing industries, and also presented much valuable in- 
 formation concerning methods of remuneration, regu- 
 larity of employment, and similar subjects. Some of 
 the materials were drawn from as early a period as the 
 the decade from 1830 to 1840, and possess considerable 
 historical interest. 
 
 Mr. Weeks attempted to select, in each industry, typi- 
 cal establishments of recognized credit and standing, 
 and to make the returns as accurate as possible. The 
 various classes of employees were carefully distinguished, 
 and only those classes were finally selected whose work 
 had not materially changed in character during the 
 period covered by the report. Thus it is probable that 
 the data collected are thoroughly comparable. The 
 schedules called for " rates of wages or average earn- 
 ings " for each class of employees, by the day, week, 
 month, or year, or by the piece. It was found that the 
 " rates of wages at the several works of the same class 
 in a given district do not vary much for a given class of 
 labor " ; and Mr. Weeks expressed the belief that the 
 
 ' American Journal of Sociology, 3 : 360. This point is discussed, 
 but not clearly, in the Eleventh Census, Report on Manufacturing In- 
 dustries, I : 13-14. See also American Journal oj Sociology, 3 : 626. 
 
 * Tenth Census, 20. Report on the Statistics of Wages in Manufac- 
 turing Industries. 
 
352 American Economic Associatioti. 
 
 report would " furnish the means for obtaining a fair 
 average for tlie whole country ". 
 
 With all the care that was taken in selecting estab- 
 lishments for investigation, the first sets of returns were 
 often unsatisfactory. In these cases Mr. Weeks called 
 attention to defects, and asked for corrected data. The 
 chief difficulty seemed to be in securing a uniform 
 classification of emplo^■ees in establishments of the 
 same class, and uniform units of payment. Sometimes 
 schedules were " passed backward and forward several 
 times before a final adjustment was reached." 
 
 Mr. Weeks confined his attention to the collection of 
 trustworthy and comparable materials, and did not 
 attempt to compute average rates of wages for all estab- 
 lishments. Thus the report presents materials rather 
 than final results. It collects as many facts as possible 
 concerning wages in important establishments, and 
 leaves to the reader the work of comparison and com- 
 bination. The report undoubtedly deserves high praise. 
 If any criticism can be passed upon the materials here 
 presented, it grows out of a circumstance that was be- 
 yond the control of Mr. Weeks. The average wages of 
 each class of laborers in each establishment were gen- 
 erally computed in the counting rooms ; and under 
 these conditions there must have been some danger 
 that the book-keepers would select an arithmetical mean 
 instead of computing a true average. 
 
 The eleventh census devoted no special report to the 
 subject of wage statistics. The establishment of the 
 United States Department of Labor in 1885 rendered 
 such an investigation less necessary for the Federal 
 census. The statistics of manufactures, however, con- 
 tained the customary inquiries concerning employees 
 and wages. 
 
Wage Statistics and the Federal Ce7isus. 353 
 
 In 1890 the investigation into manufacturing indus- 
 tries was much more complete in towns and cities than 
 it had ever been in earlier censuses. The superintendent 
 was able to place 1,042 cities in the hands of special 
 agents, as against 279 cities so treated in the tenth cen- 
 sus. In country districts, on the other hand, the canvass 
 was far less thorough ;' and there is reason for thinking 
 that in these cases the eleventh census was more defect- 
 ive than the tenth. The official who was in charge of 
 this branch of investigation has written ■? " I am confi- 
 dent that in the rural districts, as a whole, the canvass 
 of 1880 resulted in securing a larger number of reports 
 than did that of 1890." These facts have an important 
 bearing upon the comparability of the wage statistics of 
 the two censuses. 
 
 The schedules used in 1890^ called for a more minute 
 classification of laborers than had been attempted before 
 that time. As published, the tables distinguish three 
 
 'On this point the census says: "Under these circumstances, the 
 canvass of the cities was more thorough than that of the rural dis- 
 tricts, and the apparent decrease in some industries and some states is 
 due, in part at least, to the less efficient canvass by the general enu- 
 merators. The defective canvass of the enumerators is more apparent 
 in the totals for states in which there are comparatively few large 
 cities, such as Nevada, or for industries conducted largely by estab- 
 lishments located in the rural districts, of which ' I<eather, tanned and 
 curried' is an example." Eleventh Census, Manufacturing Indus- 
 tries, 1:1. Mr. Robert P. Porter says concerning the returns of 
 manufactures furnished by the regular enumerators who operated in 
 country districts : " Except in a few isolated cases the returns of pro- 
 ductive industry secured by these enumerators have proved utterly 
 valueless, and hence the Census 0£&ce, in order to obtain accurate 
 data, has been subjected to heavy outlay in securing correction and 
 reproduction of the returns. " Report on a Permanent Census Bureau, 
 i8,f, 
 
 '' American Journal of Sociology, 3 ; 624. See also letter by Carroll 
 D. Wright, quoted in Journal of Political Economy, 4 : 89. 
 
 ' Eleventh Census, Manufacturing Industries, i : 13 ; Report on a 
 Permanent Census Bureau, 178, f. 
 
 23 
 
354 American Economic Association. 
 
 classes of workers, (i) officers, firm members, and clerks ; 
 (2) operatives, skilled and unskilled ; (3) pieceworkers. 
 Each of these classes is subdivided into, (i) males above 
 16, (2) females above 15, and (3) children.' The 
 schedules called for the average number employed 
 throughout the year, and the total wages paid to each 
 class of workers. The tenth census had called for the 
 average number of hands, but had failed to secure such 
 data. The eleventh census carefully defined what should 
 be considered the average number ; and probably suc- 
 ceeded, in large measure, in obtaining it.^ This fact, 
 also, is important in any comparison of the tenth and 
 eleventh censuses upon these points. 
 
 The schedules called, also, for weekly rates of wages 
 and the average number of hands employed at each rate, 
 as well as for information concerning the number of 
 months that the establishments were in operation.* 
 These questions were more important than any of the 
 others for the student of wage statistics, and were in 
 line with the best results of recent investigations. But 
 to secure such data for the whole United States was a 
 work of great difficulty, and one that went far beyond 
 anything that had been attempted in previous censuses. 
 The plan seems to have been carried out successfully in 
 many of the more important industries. In the third 
 volume of the report, classified wage tables are given 
 for such industries as woolens, cottons, silks, glass, 
 petroleum, iron and steel, etc.* Such statistics possess 
 
 1 Eleventh Census, Manufacturing Industries, i : 19. In Table 8 of 
 Vol. I, there is given a still more minute classiEcation of employees in 
 selected industries. Clerks are separated from firm members and 
 officers, while operatives are divided into skilled and unskilled. 
 
 ' Eleventh^Census, Manufacturing Industries, i : 14. 
 
 ' Idem, I : 13. 
 
 '-Idem, 3 : 146, 150, 208, 230, 302, 338, 346, 356, 361, 372, 390, 397. 
 
Wage Statistics and the Federal Census. 355 
 
 great value for the student of wages.' For him the im- 
 portance of the report lies mainly in these classified 
 wage tables. The use which the census made of the 
 statistics concerning yearly earnings and the average 
 number of employees is open to criticism in one respect. 
 The eleventh census used its data concerning hands 
 employed and wages paid, for the purpose of computing 
 average yearly earnings. When this is done for all 
 classes of laborers in the United States, the average 
 thus obtained falls so far short of being typical that it 
 possesses little value for scientific purposes. For this 
 reason, perhaps, the eleventh census computed also the 
 average earnings for each class of employees ; and, 
 within each class, gave separate data for men, women, 
 and children.- Such tables are open to far less objec- 
 tion. The census then compared the data concerning 
 average earnings in four different ways. First it pre- 
 sented tables that contrasted the wages paid to employ- 
 ees, men, women, and children, in fifteen industries that 
 employed a large proportion of females, and wages paid 
 in fifteen industries that employed a small proportion. 
 Then it gave the average annual earnings of each class 
 of employees in the various states and territories. Next 
 it gave similar data for each class of workers by speci- 
 fied industries, and finally it presented in a single table 
 the statistics for six of the largest industries. Such a 
 treatment of the materials tended to secure more homo- 
 geneous classes of operatives, so that the wages com- 
 puted are far less unreal averages, and must be more 
 typical of the average condition of the laborers in each 
 class. Moreover, since in these selected branches of 
 
 ' In Table 8 of the first volume on manufactures, the census gives 
 the average weekly earnings of each class of employees in selected in- 
 dustries, as well as the total yearly wages. 
 
 ^ Idem, I : 20-28. 
 
256 American Economic Association. 
 
 business the statistics were, for the most part, gathered 
 at centers of industry, and by competent agents, we 
 may fairly assign considerable value to the investigation. 
 In the report upon manufactures, however, there is 
 one feature that calls for criticism. The average annual 
 earnino-s per employee, exclusive of officials and clerks, 
 are contrasted with the average annual earnings that 
 may be computed from the tenth census. Thus we are 
 told that the average annual wages in 1880 were 
 $346.91, while in 1890 they were $444.83.' The report 
 is careful to add that: "Owing to differences in the 
 form and scope of the inquiry of 1890, as compared with 
 that of 1880, previously referred to, neither of these 
 average annual earnings for 1890 should be accepted as 
 the exact increase during the decade." Some of these 
 "differences in the form and scope of the inquiry" had 
 been explained on a previous page," where it was de- 
 clared that " a comparison of the average annual earn- 
 ings for all classes of employees as obtained from the 
 reports of the two censuses" was " impracticable." But 
 others were not sufficiently explained, so that it seems 
 necessary to consider the matter at some length. If the 
 census officials deemed the two sets of figures entirely 
 
 ' Idem, I : 19. Including officers and clerks, the average for 1890 
 was $484.49. But, as such persons were not included in 1880, they 
 were excluded from this comparison. It is interesting to notice that 
 Mr. Mulhall blundered into the very error against which the census 
 had given warning. He takes $484.49 as the average wages for 1890 ; 
 and compares this figure with $346.91, the average wages for 1880. 
 See North American Review, 160 '.647. 
 
 ^ Eleventh Census, Manufacturing Industries, i ; 14. In his report 
 upon the textile industries, Mr. S. N. D. North makes a somewhat 
 similar explanation : " The increase in wages and average annual 
 earnings for each employee, as in other items, may be due in part to 
 the change in the form of inquiry and the more perfect enumeration 
 at the census of 1890. The large decrease in the number of children 
 employed also has considerable bearing on the increase in the average 
 annual earnings." Idem, 3 : 10. 
 
Wage Statistics and the Federal Census. 357 
 
 incomparable, it was unfortunate to make any compari- 
 son of averages. For, although it is certain that any 
 person who attempts to use the census should examine 
 all the explanations that accompany the figures, it is 
 equally sure that the average popular writer or newspa- 
 per scientist will not do anything of the sort. And, as 
 a matter of fact, eminent statisticians have compared 
 the average Vi'ages for 1890 with the census figures for 
 1880, 1870, i85o, and 1850. Folio pages of census sta- 
 tistics that invite comparison seem to possess powers of 
 attraction that no amount of caution and explanation 
 can be expected to exercise. 
 
 The errors and omissions of the returns of manufac- 
 tures in 1870 and previous census years are so notorious 
 that it cannot be necessary to repeat what has already 
 been said concerning the mistakes that must arise from 
 the attempt to compare rates of yearly wages deduced 
 from such materials. With the tenth and eleventh cen- 
 suses, however, greater accuracy and completeness were 
 secured, so that the incomparable character of their sta- 
 tistics of wages is not so easily seen. But the writer 
 believes, nevertheless, that the attempt to compare the 
 average wages computed for 1880 and i8go can lead only 
 to most erroneous and mischievous results.' 
 
 Tlie first reason for considering the wage statistics of 
 1880 wholly incomparable with those of 1890 is that 
 the later census was far more complete in the cities and 
 large towns, while the earlier census was probably more 
 complete in the country districts. Upon this point the 
 facts have already been stated. The necessary re- 
 sult is that the average wages computed from the 
 
 ' Thus Mr. J. S. Jeans, using such data, came to the conclusion that 
 wages had advanced more during the decade from 1880 to 1890 than 
 they had in the thirty years prior to 1880. Fortnightly Review, 
 58 : 752- 
 
358 American Economic Association. 
 
 eleventh census are based upon figures that include a 
 far larger proportion of city laborers, who receive higher 
 money wages ; while the census of 1880 probably in- 
 cluded a larger proportion of country laborers, whose 
 money wages are lower. 
 
 The importance of this consideration can be shown 
 most readily by stiidying the average wages for the va- 
 rious counties of Massachusetts, as given in the state 
 census of 1885. The figures are as follows : ' 
 
 Plymouth county fe9$-97 
 
 Suffolk " 369-13 
 
 Essex " 365-61 
 
 State of Massachusetts 35^-°^ 
 
 Franklin county 348-56 
 
 Norfolk 
 
 Worcester 
 
 Hampden 
 
 Middlesex 
 
 Bristol 
 
 Berkshire 
 
 Hampshire 
 
 Nantucket 
 
 Barnstable 
 
 Dukes 
 
 34d.IT 
 
 342-85 
 341.61 
 
 330.77 
 324.16 
 305.68 
 2S3.38 
 277.98 
 
 238.97 
 106.79 
 
 Plymouth county, which heads the list, is only in ap- 
 pearance an exception to the statement that the highest 
 wages are found in the counties having the largest pro- 
 portion of urban population. In that county there is 
 one large city, Brockton, where the average wages were 
 $433. In the rest of the county the average was ^65 
 less than in the city of Brockton. The same thing is 
 noticeable in Worcester county, where the city of Wor- 
 cester is the only large center of population. In this 
 city wages averaged $382 ; while in the rest of the 
 county they averaged only $324. It is evident that if 
 one census of the state should be made far more com- 
 plete for the cities than any previous census, while its 
 
 ^Massachusetts Census of 1885, 2 :ci. 
 
Wage Statistics and the Federal Censiis. 359 
 
 eumeration of country laborers shoiild be less complete, 
 there would result an apparent increase of the average 
 wages for the state in a period when wages might actu- 
 ally have remained stationar}-. 
 
 In the Federal census of 1890 a comparison of the 
 average earnings in the fifty principal cities with the 
 average for the entire country^ shows that thirty-six out 
 of the fifty cities were credited with wages that exceeded 
 the average for the country. Of the fourteen cities 
 where the average wages were less than the average for 
 the United States, many showed figures that were far 
 above the wages for the rest of the states in which they 
 were situated. If Vv'e select the principal class of wage- 
 earners, males above sixteen years, and exclude officers 
 and clerks, the results are still more striking. The 
 writer has made such a computation for the eight largest 
 cities, with the following results : The United States, 
 $498; Baltimore, $503 ; Philadelphia, ^568 ; St. Louis, 
 ^569 ; Chicago, $587 ; Brooklyn, $636 ; Boston, $654 ; 
 New York, $702 ; San Francisco, $709. In Baltimore, 
 where the wages show the smallest excess over the 
 figures for the United States, it appeared that the average 
 for the city was $226 higher than the average wages for 
 the same class of workers in the rest of the state. 
 
 The class of employees last mentioned, viz., males 
 above sixteen years, is the more important in this con- 
 nection because it was among just such laborers that the 
 enumeration of the eleventh census was especially com- 
 plete. The census explains' that : " The great increase 
 shown in statistics for industries known as ' hand trades ' 
 is largelv due to the fact that no previous census has 
 obtained so complete a report regarding such industries 
 
 • Eleventh Census, Manufacturing Industries, 2 : xxxviii. 
 ^ Idem, I : 2. 
 
360 American Economic Association. 
 
 as masonry, carpentering, blacksinithing, cooperage, 
 painting, plumbing, and similar trades using machinery 
 to a limited extent." In four classes of laborers, viz., 
 masons, painters and paperliangers, plumbers, and car- 
 penters, the eleventh census enumerated 357,000 per- 
 sons, against 97,000 enumerated in 1880.' This was an 
 increase of 260,000 laborers, or 266 per cent, during a 
 decade when the whole population of the country in- 
 creased less than 25 per cent. Now these particular 
 trades receive wages that are far above the average for 
 the United States. Excluding officers and clerks, the 
 average wage of the country is given as $444.83. In 
 these four trades very few women and children are em- 
 ployed ; and the males above sixteen years, who form 
 nearly the entire number of workers enumerated, are 
 credited with the following wages : plumbers, $627 ; 
 masons, $628 ; painters and paperhangers, 1^644 ; car- 
 penters, $648.^ We find, therefore, that the eleventh 
 census enumerated more than 200,000' workmen who 
 were omitted from these trades in 1880. These 200,000 
 or more workers formed 5 or 6 per cent of all persons 
 engaged in manufacturing occupations in 1890, exclud- 
 ing officers and clerks. Their wages exceeded the 
 average wages of all classes of laborers by amounts that 
 varied from $182, in the case of plumbers, to $203, in 
 the case of carpenters. This one body of employees, 
 excluded in 1880 and included in 1890, would tend to 
 increase the average wages for all persons engaged in 
 manufactures by ten to twelve dollars, if not more.* 
 
 '^ Idem, I : 74, 79, 80, 81. 
 
 '' Idem, I : 23-27. 
 
 ' This figure allows for more than fifty per cent increase in these 
 particular trades. The employees in all manufactures increased fifty 
 per cent from 1880 to 1890, excluding officers and clerks. 
 
 * Since the writer made this estimate, the official who had charge of 
 these statistics in the eleventh census has stated that, if the trades 
 
Wage Statistics and the Federal Census. 361 
 
 But there is a second reason, of still greater weight, 
 for holding the results of the two censuses to be incom- 
 parable. There is no room for doubting that in 1890 
 the total wages paid were divided by a number of em- 
 ployees that was much smaller than it would have been 
 if the same methods had been followed that were 
 used in 1880. Upon this subject the census says : ' 
 " The questions used in 1880 tended to obtain a number 
 of employees that would be in excess of the true aver- 
 age, while it is believed the questions used in 1890 have 
 obtained, as nearly as possible, the average number." 
 Attention has already been called to this fact. It is the 
 more important since it had the same result as the first 
 cause of difference between the figures of the two cen- 
 suses. It tended to produce a larger average wage in 
 1890. 
 
 We have seen that the Massachusetts census of 1885, 
 using as a divisor the total number of hands employed 
 during the year, computed an average v/age of $351.02 
 for the year 1885. It has also been shov/n that in 1886, 
 when the publication of the annual reports on manu- 
 factures was begun, the average number of em- 
 ployees was taken as a divisor, and the average wages 
 were thereby increased to $395.89. Precisely the same 
 thing occurred in the Federal statistics when the 
 eleventh census actually ascertained the average number 
 of employees, and used this as a divisor. Further light 
 is thrown upon this question by the Massachusetts cen- 
 sus for 1895, which has appeared during the past year. 
 This census ascertained the total wages paid to all em- 
 ployees in manufacturing industries, and divided this 
 
 that were imperfectU- enumerated in 1S80 should be excluded from 
 the tables for iSgo, the average wages for the United States would be 
 $429 instead of 5444. See American Journal of Sociology, 3 : 627. 
 ' Eleventh Census, Manufacturing Industries, i : 14. 
 
362 American Economic Associatio7i. 
 
 sum by the average number of hands employed. Thus 
 an average wage of $446.41 was computed.' This 
 shows a magnificent increase over the average rate of 
 $351.02 computed in 1885 ; but tlie larger wage was se- 
 cured by using a smaller divisor, and the later census 
 makes no attempt to compare the two results. No one 
 would claim that the wages of laborers employed in 
 manufacturing industries in the state had increased from 
 $351 to $446 between 1885 ^^^'^ i895- I'^ the very year 
 in which the last state census appeared, the bureau of 
 labor statistics published the results of an investigation 
 into comparative rates of wages paid in 1881 and 1897.^ 
 This covered twenty three industries, and showed an in- 
 creased average wage in fifteen cases and a decreased 
 wage in the eight other instances. These results may 
 justify the claim that wages in Massachusetts showed 
 on the whole a tendency to increase during the period 
 in question ; but they demonstrate also the atrocity of 
 the error that would be committed by any one who 
 should compare the censuses of 1885 and 1895, and 
 should then claim that wages had increased on the aver- 
 age by $95 during the decade. 
 
 There has been considerable discussion of the question 
 whether the average number of employees, or the total 
 number of persons employed during the year, should 
 be selected as the divisor in determining yearly earnings. 
 It is clear that if the total number is taken, the divisor 
 will be swelled unduly by the transient laborers who 
 drift from one establishment to another, and are sure to 
 be enumerated more than once. Such a divisor would 
 give average yearly earnings that would be too low. On 
 
 ^ Census of Massachusetts, 1895, 5 : 240, 280. 
 
 ^ Twenty-Eighth Annual Report of the Bureau of Statistics of Labor, 
 
 1-42. 
 
Wage Statistics and the Federal Ce7isus. 363 
 
 the other hand, when we select the average number em- 
 ployed, we use as a divisor the average number of posi- 
 tions filled throughout the year. This gives average 
 yearly earnings that represent what the individual labor- 
 ers would receive if employment were continuous 
 throughout the year. Average wages computed in this 
 manner are more than the actual income of individual 
 laborers, especially in trades where employment is irreg- 
 ular. It does not fall v/ithin the scope of this article to 
 consider whether the census ought to inquire for the 
 average number of employees, or for the total number. 
 The statistics of manufactures are not designed primarily 
 to furnish statistics of annual average wages. This 
 particular question should be framed in such a manner 
 as will be most useful for the primary purposes for which 
 the investigation into manufactures is conducted. But 
 we must insist that wage statistics computed with one 
 kind of divisor must not be compared with data secured 
 by the use of a different divisor. 
 
 Some of the criticisms that have been directed against 
 the wage statistics of the eleventh census can be account- 
 ed for by remembering that the rates of annual wages 
 given tliere represent, not the actual earnings of all per- 
 sons employed, but the amounts paid annually to the 
 occupants of a certain number of positions. Thus the 
 average wages of carpenters in New York city are com- 
 puted at $896. This would mean $3 per day for nearly 
 300 days of employment. A critic who has exceptional 
 facilities for securing information concerning actual 
 conditions in that cit}', writes : " The average wages of 
 good, steady, thoroughly competent carpenters never ex- 
 ceeded $650 for the entire year." 
 
 Some of the resiilts of comparing the average wages 
 given in the two censuses are so ridiculous as to show 
 
364 American Eco7iomic Association. 
 
 the absolute incomparability of the two sets of data. 
 Thus the same critic points out that, according to the 
 census data, carpenters' wages in New York City in- 
 creased from ^640 in 1880 to $896 in 1890. For the 
 city of Poughkeepsie we are asked to believe that car- 
 penters' wages advanced from $357 in 1880 to $729 in 
 1890. These results are so absurd as to show that we 
 are dealing with data that are either totally erroneous 
 or else collected by such different methods as to be 
 wholly incapable of bearing comparison. 
 
 It remains to be consider what the twelfth census 
 should attempt to accomplish in this field of wage sta- 
 tistics. The writer will assume that the purpose of such 
 statistics should be to investigate the conditions under 
 which the large masses of our population who are de- 
 pendent upon the receipt of wages are actually living. 
 In the present condition of statistical science we can 
 not hope that such investigation will throw much light 
 upon what is technically called the problem of share 
 distribution. Moreover, since the census can not well 
 undertake to collect comprehensive statistics concerning 
 the prices of commodities, it must confine itself to the 
 question of money wages. 
 
 At the outset the question may fairly arise whether, in 
 view of the establishment of the Department of I^abor 
 at Washington, the Federal census should continue to 
 gather statistics of wages. This bureau was created 
 for the purpose of investigating labor problems. It has 
 already published much information relating to wages ; 
 and is, at the present time, preparing a report upon 
 wages paid in the leading countries of the world.' 
 
 If a permanent census bureau should be established and 
 
 'Am. Stat. Ass'n Publications, 5 :373 ; Eleventh Annual Report of 
 the Commissioner of Labor, 5. 
 
Wage Statistics and the Federal Census. 365 
 
 should undertake the systematic collection of wage sta- 
 tistics, it would appear to be duplicating the work of tlie 
 Department of lyabor. If, on the other hand, the Census 
 Office should remain a temporary affair, we may fairly 
 doubt whether this particular field of iuvestigation could 
 not be covered more satisfactorily by the Department of 
 L/abor with its permanent organization. There is reason 
 for thinking that even the special agents appointed by 
 the census to collect statistics of manufactures do not 
 always have the time or training for the work of gather- 
 ing accurate data concerning wages. It seems probable 
 that better results could be secured by placing additional 
 funds at the disposal of the permanent labor bureau. 
 Such an investigation might not cover as much ground 
 as the census, but the improved quality of the materials 
 might well counterbalance the greater quantity of the 
 census returns. This would be especially true of that 
 portion of the census statistics that may have to be left 
 in the hands of the ordinary enumerator. 
 
 One other point is worthy of consideration. The 
 census returns necessarily cover but single years at 
 intervals of a decade. The periods when tlie census 
 materials are gathered may happen to be abnormal, so 
 that by this fact alone any comparison of results from 
 one decade to another may be vitiated. Then, too, 
 important fluctuations may take place within each 
 decade, and upon these the census can give no informa- 
 tion. Such considerations induced Massachusetts to 
 provide for annual statistics of manufactures. Finally, 
 the publication of census returns seems to be necessarily 
 such a slow process that no inconsiderable advantage 
 might result from the prompter methods of the Depart- 
 ment of Labor. 
 
 Assuming, however, that the census, in its inves- 
 
366 A'>nerican Economic Association. 
 
 tigatioiis concerning manufactures, is to continue to 
 gather data concerning wages, we may consider what 
 should be attempted. In doing this, we should remem- 
 ber that the principal purpose of the census investiga- 
 tions is to gather information concerning manufactures. 
 The questions relating to total wages and employees 
 should, therefore, be framed with this primary object in 
 view. 
 
 For this last reason, the census should continue to 
 investigate the total wages paid, as an important ele- 
 ment in the expenses of manufacturing industry. But 
 it ma}' be doubted whether the data thus gathered 
 should be used for the purpose of computing average 
 3'early earnings of laborers. In any event, the utterly 
 incomparable character of the statistics of the eleventh 
 and preceding censuses should be set forth so clearly as 
 to offer no possible excuse for the further misuse of their 
 figures. 
 
 If the computation of the average yearly earnings is 
 continued, the twelfth census should carry on the work, 
 commenced by the eleventh, of ascertaining the average 
 earnings of workers in each occupation, separating in all 
 cases men, women, and children. Such data could be 
 used for some purposes, since the averages thus com- 
 puted would be based upon units of some degree of 
 homogeneity. The results would be further improved 
 if they could be more fully classified by sections of the 
 country. Furthermore, a separate table might be pre- 
 pared, from which the notoriously incorrect materials 
 gathered by the ordinary enumerators outside of the 
 cities and towns could be excluded. This was accom- 
 plished in the eleventh census in the separate volume 
 devoted to the principal industrial centers. For all 
 these purposes it would matter less whether the divisor 
 
Wage Statistics and the Federal Census. 367 
 
 should be the average number of employees or the total 
 number, provided that future censuses should adopt a 
 uniform method of procedure. 
 
 It has been suggested that wage statistics should in- 
 vestigate only the earnings of laborers steadily employed 
 in each establishment, because other workers are largely 
 migratory or incapable. '^ It is urged that we should en- 
 deavor to ascertain primarily the earnings of capable 
 laborers who are steadily employed during the months 
 that each establishment is in operation. The import- 
 ance of studying the numbers and condition of transient 
 employees is not denied, but it is considered best to 
 make this the object of an independent investigation. 
 This point seems to be well taken, provided that it is 
 feasible to separate the two classes of laborers. But it 
 may be impossible to introduce such a feature into the 
 investigation concerning manufactures, and an indepen- 
 dent inquiry might be needed in order to accomplish 
 such a result. 
 
 The writer has already expressed the belief that the 
 most valuable wage statistics contained in the eleventh 
 census are to be found in the tables of classified weekly 
 rates. The advantage of such a method is that it deals 
 largely with actual facts, and does not employ averages 
 that may be unreal and misleading. Such statistics, 
 when properly tabulated, enable the student to ascertain 
 exactly what rates of remuneration the great mass of 
 the laborers is receiving. 
 
 Besides tabulating such returns so as to show, for 
 each class of laborers, the numbers employed at each 
 rate, and the per cent which such numbers bear to the 
 total number of persons in each group, the results might 
 
 ^ See Mayo-Smith, in Quarterly Journal of Economics, i:-yy],l.\ 
 Von Meyr, in Allgemeines statistisches Archiv, 2 : 135. 
 
368 American Economic Association. 
 
 be presented graphically according to the method sug- 
 gested by Dr. Venn/ This consists in drawing a base 
 line that shall represent the different rates of wages, and 
 then constructing ordinates denoting the relative num- 
 bers of laborers receiving such specified rate. This 
 plan would make it possible to plot a curve "that would 
 represent accurately the condition of the wage earners 
 at a given time. Between different periods, changes in 
 the shape of the curve would indicate the course of 
 weekly rates of wages. 
 
 Tables of weekly wages need to be supplemented by 
 statistics showing the number of weeks of full working 
 time the operatives are able to secure in the course of 
 the year. Such inquiries fall easily within the scope of 
 the census of manufactiires. With their use, the tables 
 of weekly rates would furnish most valuable informa- 
 tion concerning the course of wages in manufacturing 
 industries. 
 
 Charles J. Bullock. 
 
 Cornell University. 
 
 ^Jo2irnal of Royal Statistical Society, 64 : 445. 
 
WEALTH, DEBT AND TAXATION. 
 
 Valuation and Taxation. 
 
 The report of the census of 1890 on Wealth, Debt 
 and Taxation consists of two parts : Part I — Public 
 Debt ; Part II — Valuation and Taxation. This review 
 covers the second part. 
 
 General Introduction. — As the heading — Valuation 
 and Taxation — implies, there are two distinct pur- 
 poses served by this part of the census. One purpose 
 is to obtain a general inventory of the wealth of the 
 nation ; the other is to ascertain the sources and amounts 
 of the income of the commonwealth and local govern- 
 ments,' and to show the character of the charges upon 
 that income. 
 
 Prior to 1880, there was no distinct recognition in the 
 census investigations of the second purpose. Attempts 
 were made in 1850, in i860 and in 1870 to estimate the 
 amount of wealth in the country, and in that connection 
 the assessment of property for purposes of taxation was 
 ascertained. In 1880 an investigation into taxation 
 was added to that into the assessed valuation of property 
 and the second of the two purposes was for the first time 
 clearly recognized. 
 
 Although these two purposes are entirely distinct in 
 character, yet their original combination and the some- 
 what subordinate, contributory position which the inves- 
 tigation into taxation occupied at the beginning led to 
 complications to which certain serious faults in the 
 eleventh census (i8go) can be traced. This unfortu- 
 
 ^ States and territories, including the District of Columbia, and all 
 political subdivisions or parts thereof, which raise or expend public 
 revenues. 
 
 24 
 
370 Avierican Economic Association. 
 
 nate combination arose very naturally. A large propor- 
 tion of the revenues of the state and local governments 
 was, and still is, raised by the taxation of property, and 
 it is still the common assumption that all property is 
 taxable and is, or should be, assessed. This assumption, 
 which is not at all warranted by the facts, was made in 
 the seventh census and again in the eighth census.' 
 It was but slightly modified in the ninth census and 
 did not altogether disappear in the tenth or eleventh. 
 In the first two reports, both of which aimed to find the 
 amount of our national wealth, the assessed value of 
 property taxed was ascertained and to that certain 
 amounts were added to make the "true value." Prop- 
 erty exempt or which escaped taxation was not consid- 
 ered until the ninth census. At that time there was 
 added to the estimated " true value " of property taxed 
 a certain sum supposed to cover the value of property 
 exempt from taxation or which escaped by fraudulent 
 evasion. In 1880 and in 1890 the attempt was made to 
 make a complete inventory of national wealth, and in 
 this connection the assessed valuation of property taxed 
 was used as a guide in obtaining the value of certain 
 kinds of property. At the same time the investigation 
 concerning assessment and taxation was greatly devel- 
 oped in scope and accuracy. Kach of these two parts of 
 the investigation having thus had its development, it is 
 easy to see that they have really separated. Still the 
 traditions of the old combination cling to the investiga- 
 tion, affecting its terminology, its methods, the presenta- 
 tion of its results, and the comparisons drawn from it, 
 and give to it many features the presence of which can- 
 not be explained except as historical accidents. Thus, 
 
 1 Special report of the superintendent of the seventh census, Dec. 
 I, 1852. Eighth Census, Miscellaneous Statistics, 294. 
 
Valuation and Taxation. 371 
 
 the terms, " assessed valuation " and " true valuation," 
 formerly represented two ways of looking at the same 
 thing, namely, the property taxed. But, though the 
 term " true valuation " is still used, it applies in the 
 eleventh census to all kinds of property, taxed and un- 
 taxed. Yet in spite of that change the new " true 
 valuation" is freely compared with the old as if both 
 referred to the same thing. Thus we are told, for 
 example, that the total wealth of the country in 1890 
 was $65,000,000,000, or $1,036 per capita. This is then 
 compared with $7,000,000,000, or $308 per capita in 1850. 
 But the $7,000,000,000 represents the corrected value 
 of property taxed, while the $65,000,000,000, ostensi- 
 bly at least, includes all property, taxed and untaxed, 
 alike. The comparison is then elaborated and extended, 
 percentages of increase, etc., being offered. 
 
 Other comparisons, which were perfectly logical when 
 first instituted, have become illogical and inadmissible 
 through the changes which have been made, but are 
 yet continued. Of these the following will serve as an 
 example. In i860 we were told that the "assessed 
 valuation" of property taxed was $12,000,000,000 its "true 
 valuation" being $16,000,000,000, a perfectly proper 
 comparison. But in 1890, we were told that the "as- 
 sessed valuation " of the property taxed is $25,000,- 
 000,000, and that the " true valuation " of this property 
 together with a large amount of other kinds of property 
 was $65,000,000,000, and further that the " assessed 
 valuation" is 40 per cent of the "true valuation." The 
 most natural inference is that the assessors had de- 
 creased their assessments from 75 per cent to 40 per 
 cent in 30 years, an inference which is not at all near 
 the truth. 
 
 It is time that the two purposes of this part of the in- 
 
372 American Economic Association. 
 
 vestigation should be recognized as entirely distinct. Old 
 and no longer admissible comparisons should be discon- 
 tinued and the foundation laid for new and permanent 
 comparisons, which maybe continued in the future with 
 ever increasing value. It may be said in defense of the 
 census of 1890, against the criticisms just offered that 
 the reader is warned against the error of such compari- 
 sons by the preliminary explanatory statements. This 
 is quite true, and the warning is good as far as it goes. 
 But in the presentation of the results of a public 
 statistical investigation two things must be borne in 
 mind, (i) Many unscientific persons will necessarily 
 take the tables verbatim; and will use them "uninter- 
 preted" and unmodified by any explanatory statements ; 
 and hence, no table or statement should be printed 
 which taken in that naive, simple way will lead to 
 serious error. To drop the old comparisons, altogether, 
 is, therefore, better than to continue them in such 
 a misleading form. (2) Scientific investigators, who 
 use the census, will need to " interpret " the figures 
 given, in order to make new combinations, and for them 
 the most ample and detailed explanations of methods 
 and significance are indispensable. Indeed one of the 
 most troublesome features of the volume on Valuation 
 and Taxation now under discussion is the inadequacy 
 and obscurity of the statements given regarding the 
 methods by which the figures were obtained and their 
 real meaning. Many instances in which the census of 
 1890 failed in this respect will be found in the follow- 
 ing attempt to analyze the figures given. 
 
 I. THE WEALTH OP THE NATION. 
 
 The purpose of this part of the investigation is quite 
 clearly indicated when we call it our national inventory. 
 
Valuation and Taxation. 373 
 
 The information sought is the value of all the different 
 kinds of tangible wealth within our boundaries at the 
 close of the census period, 1890.' Of necessity the 
 larger part of this investigation must be made by what 
 the statistician would call an enquete, that is, a careful 
 expert estimate. Enumeration is possible only in a few 
 of the items. 
 
 At this point the question might be raised whether 
 such estimates of wealth in general are of any scientific 
 use. The trained statistician naturally looks with con- 
 siderable suspicion upon an aggregate composed of so 
 many complex elements, each measured by a different 
 plan and on a different scale. He will be extremely 
 wary of drawing any conclusions from it without a 
 careful study of the methods by which the figures were 
 obtained and considerable readjustment of the state- 
 ments. But the layman frequently accepts the census 
 estimate of wealth, and especially that conglomerate 
 total, as an accurate measure of national prosperity, and 
 draws conclusions of varying accuracy. This review is 
 not the place for an extended discussion of the " relations 
 between private property and public welfare."^ It is 
 sufficient to recall the fact, so often dwelt upon by 
 economists, that national well-being or prosperity de- 
 pends upon a great many other things than the accumu- 
 lated possessions of the people. It depends quite as 
 much upon many of the " free gifts of nature " as upon 
 those things to which we ascribe a value. It depends 
 
 'The phrase " at the close of the census period, 1890," appears to 
 mean May 31, 1890. No more definite statement of the date to which 
 the investigation refers is given in connection with the estimate of 
 wealth. There is some internal evidence that all parts of the estimate 
 were not scrupulously reduced to that date. Since, however, the 
 entire inventory is at best an approximate estimate, it would, perhaps, 
 be over-critical to insist on the reduction of all parts to the same date. 
 
 '■ A. T. Hadley, Economicp, SubLitle. 
 
374 American Economic Association. 
 
 very much upon the abundance and consequent cheap- 
 ness of things, and upon the uses to which our accumu- 
 lated possessions are put. At times, national well-being 
 increases with the increase of circumstances which tend 
 to lower the value we put upon accumulated possessions. 
 An increase in the number of dollars' worth of goods on 
 hand, or in tlie number of dollars' worth of land, unac- 
 companied by a material increase in the amount of goods 
 or the area of land under cultivation is frequently a sign 
 of the increasing hardship of economic life. " Public 
 wealth," says Hadley, " is a flow, not a fund ; it is to be 
 measured as income, not as capital." It must, therefore, 
 be clear that the census estimate of wealth cannot give 
 us an accurate measure of national well-being. 
 
 Yet the inventory has its use, even if it does not 
 measure the " Wealth of the Nation " in the broadest 
 sense of that phrase. Tlie grand total may be a meaning- 
 less conglomerate, but the items in the list have each a 
 definite significance. Indeed, the national inventory has 
 about the same use which a merchant's annual inventory 
 has. Although the total amount of stock on hand has 
 no significance as to the profitableness of the business, 
 and although the merchant reckons his success by the 
 size of his profit, not by the size of his stock, yet he 
 wants to know the relative amount of each kind of 
 goods, the adequacy of the supply as related to the pos- 
 sible demand, the proportion of dead stock, etc., etc. 
 So the economist is interested to know the relative 
 amount of each of the different kinds of wealth. From 
 this point of view the investigation has its importance 
 and there can be no question of the wisdom of continu- 
 ing this part of the census. 
 
 If this view of the scientific purpose of the inventory 
 of wealth be correct, it has certain consequences which 
 
Vahiation and Taxation. 375 
 
 are important in their bearing upon the method of the 
 investigation and upon the presentation of the results. 
 These consequences, briefly stated, are (i) that a correct 
 classification is very important ; (2) that each item must 
 be estimated in a way to show its relations to the others ; 
 (3) that the results must be so presented that the reader 
 can understand the real significance of each class of 
 wealth. 
 
 In taking up the census estimate of wealth the first 
 thing we are interested in, therefore, is the classification 
 used. This was determined in 1890, mainly by the 
 exigencies of collecting the data, which, in turn, were 
 determined by the desire to utilize the results of other 
 investigations throwing light on the subject. The in- 
 formation obtained from these other investigations was 
 not systematized and rearranged according to some logi- 
 cal classification or plan, but carried over bodily, as it 
 were, and the parts roughly patched together. The 
 other investigations made use of were : 
 
 1. The census investigation into manufactures, es- 
 pecially that part of it dealing with the capital invested, 
 the value of machinery in mills, and of the product on 
 hand. 
 
 2. The census investigation into transportation by 
 land and water, especially that part concerned with 
 the value of railroads and shipping. 
 
 3. The census report on mineral industries from 
 which the value of mines and quarries with product on 
 hand was taken. 
 
 4. Much valuable assistance might have been ob- 
 tained from the census investigation into farms, homes, 
 and mortgages, and apparently some was so obtained. 
 Indeed if the investigation into "Wealth" had been 
 combined with that one, many of the items which were 
 
376 American Economic Association. 
 
 merely "estimated" could have been enumerated and 
 additional details obtained. But it will be remembered 
 that the investigation into farms, homes, and mortgages 
 was ordered after the regular work had been planned, 
 and when it was too late to take advantage of the oppor- 
 tunity thus afforded. 
 
 Other government reports and investigations were of 
 assistance, especially the report of the Director of the 
 Mint for 1890, which gave the value of gold and silver 
 coin and bullion. 
 
 The rest of the data seem to have been collected or 
 estimated, especially for this report. The general 
 classification is as follows. 
 
 1. Real estate, with improvements thereon 39i544.544,333 
 
 2. Live stock on farms, farm implements, and machin- 
 
 ery 2,703,015,040 
 
 3. Mines and quarries, including product on hand i,29i,29r,579 
 
 4. Gold and silver coin and bullion 1,158,774,948 
 
 5. Machinery of mills and product on hand, raw and 
 
 manufactured 3,058,593,441 
 
 6. Railroads and equipment including $389,357,289 for 
 
 street railroads 8,685,407,323 
 
 7. Telegraphs, telephones, shipping, canals, and equip- 
 
 ment 701,755,712 
 
 8. Miscellaneous 7,893,708,821 
 
 Total $65,037,091,197 
 
 Is this classification sufficient? Do these items in- 
 clude all the wealth of the country ? These questions 
 are rather difficult to answer. So entirely have the 
 exigencies of collection been allowed to rule the classi- 
 fication that it appears totally irregular and illogi- 
 cal. It is almost impossible to say whether all kinds of 
 wealth have been included or not, still less is it possible 
 to say exactly where certain kinds of property belong if 
 they are included. The critical reader is not particu- 
 larly reassured by the confident statement of the Census 
 
Vahiation and Taxation. ^Tll 
 
 Office that " these items include substantially all the 
 wealth of the country." A few rather important in- 
 stances have been noted which seem to throw a doubt 
 on the accuracy of this statement. Thus, for example, 
 no special mention is made of electric light and power 
 plants, nor of gas plants in private hands or belonging 
 to corporations. An examination of the details shows 
 that probably some of the real estate of such corpora- 
 tions is included jUnder the head of real estate. This is 
 true of all those states where the corporations are taxed 
 on their property. The machinery of such companies 
 is probably included in the machinery of mills, but the 
 poles, lines, cables, pipes, etc., so far as I could ascertain, 
 are not included anywhere. There is no evidence 
 that more than a very small part of the property of 
 water companies, both those supplying water for house- 
 hold uses and for power and those supplying water for 
 irrigation, is included. Possibly because the investiga- 
 tion is confined to the tangible wealth of the country, the 
 franchises of such corporations are not included, although 
 it is hard to see how the real wealth or earning power of 
 these and other similar corporations, or even the value 
 of their property, can be properly estimated without 
 reference to the value of their franchises. Any state- 
 ment of wealth which omits such important elements as 
 the valuable rights, privileges and relations character- 
 istic of modern industrial organization cannot be said 
 to contain "substantially all the wealth of the coai- 
 try." Alerchandise held in stock by merchants and 
 producers was estimated by the tenth census at over 
 $6,000,000,000. This item in the eleventh census is 
 included under " miscellaneous " and given some small 
 value which is not stated. No explanation of the change 
 is offered. 
 
378 American Econo^nic Association. 
 
 It appears from the report that public lands, public 
 buildings, and the personal property of governments 
 were included in the total wealth. But the exact 
 amount of these items is not clearly stated. If these 
 items are to be included, one might inquire why public 
 highways, roads, streets, bridges and the like were not 
 included. Are they not a part of our tangible wealth ? 
 They do not appear to have been included in the list. 
 In reference to sucli items as these it may be said that it 
 is difficult to tell where to draw the line. If we include 
 streets and roads, we should include canals ; if canals, 
 then harbors and rivers, upon which the government 
 spends so much money. If we include these items it 
 would seem reasonable to include a breakwater ; if a 
 breakwater, why not the shore which it shelters? It is 
 obvious that this leads to a serious difficulty. It is prob- 
 able that the only way out is to draw an arbitrary line, and 
 to include only such items of public wealth as have been 
 the objects of the expenditure of public funds, or been held 
 for sale. Of the former class the public works will serve 
 as an example, of the latter the public lands. These items, 
 have, of course, no market value and the sum at which they 
 are to be entered in the list will be more or less arbitrary. 
 Still it is not difficult to estimate in most cases what 
 they would be worth if they were private property, and 
 it would be eminently satisfactory for all purposes to 
 enter them in the list at such a valuation. 
 
 It would serve no useful purpose to allow the criticism 
 of the eleventh census in this particular to turn upon 
 the claims of any or all the above items to be recognized 
 by a place in the list of wealth. They are not cited for 
 that purpose, and there may be others that are not men- 
 tioned, which are of more importance and better entitled 
 to a place. All that it is necessary to point out is that 
 
Valuatio7i and Taxation. 379 
 
 is is impossible from the results presented to tell whether 
 the above items or any part of them have been included 
 or not. Even if the census is not open to the charge of 
 having omitted them, it is certainly a fault not to have 
 explained where they are to be found, or if they have 
 been omitted the grounds for their exclusion. The 
 general classification is unsatisfactory even if it is not, 
 as indeed it appears to be, incomplete. 
 
 We pass next to the methods pursued in ascertaining 
 the amount of the different items. " The term real 
 ■estate includes all lands and lots with improvements 
 thereon, but does not include mines, quarries, telegraphs, 
 telephones, or railroads, except that in a few states where 
 the roadbed, station houses, and repair shops of railroads 
 are classed as real estate for purposes of taxation and 
 their value not separately reported." ' To some extent 
 therefore the items are duplicated. It is a matter for 
 careful consideration whether this cannot be avoided or 
 the error reduced. 
 
 The value of the real estate was ascertained by inquiry 
 from the persons empowered to assess it for taxation, 
 ■checked by " more than 25,000 inquiries sent throughout 
 the country to persons believed to be familiar with the 
 values of real estate, asking tlieir opinions as to the rela- 
 tion between the assessed and true value in their re- 
 spective localities."" This method does not seem to have 
 been applied uniformly to all parts of the country. The 
 25,000 inquiries were sent out upon some very peculiar 
 plan. If that were not the case, it is very remarkable 
 to say the least, that the true value ascertained in this 
 way should correspond exactly to the assessed value in 
 the case of real estate in Alaine and in the District of 
 
 'Eleventh Census, Wealth Debt and Taxation, 2:7. 
 ■•' Ibid. 
 
380 America7i Economic Association. 
 
 Columbia. If there are two parts of the country where 
 the assessed vahie is the same as tlie market value, it is 
 worth the whole cost of the census to have established 
 the fact. In Wisconsin and Pennsylvania local reports 
 were partly utilized.^ The results obtained in this way 
 were then submitted to tiie governors of the respective 
 states. This procedure, as might have been foreseen, 
 resulted in eliciting no new information. 
 
 The most commendable feature about the above 
 method is its economy. No other method could have 
 been used without a material increase in expense. It is 
 an attempt to do by correspondence what could be done 
 much more satisfactorily b)' the special agent. A much 
 greater degree of success might have been assured if it 
 had been applied in a somewhat different way. A great 
 deal depends upon the persons selected to whom the in- 
 quiries are sent. But even more depends upon the v.-ay 
 in which the questions are presented. The persons to 
 whom the inquiries are sent should be those who are 
 familiar with actual sales. The questions should call 
 for an actual list of the sale prices compared with the 
 assessed values of pieces of land that have actually 
 changed hands within some short period preceding the 
 census period. The question asked in the census of 
 1890, " What is your estimate of the ratio or percentage 
 which the assessed value of real estate in your town 
 bears to its true value, viz., to the amount which it 
 would bring at sale in open market?"," when unaccom- 
 
 'AUhough the true values ascertained by tlie Pennsylvania Tax 
 Conference were adopted in the main yet in the case of Philadelphia 
 the census figures vary from those of the Conference by more than 
 $125,000,000. No explanation of this is offered, and from the text the 
 reader is left to suppose that the figures of the Conference were simply 
 reprinted. 
 
 ^Circular letter of January 20, 1890. Form 7-466. 
 
Valuation and Taxation. 381 
 
 panied by a call for a statement of the facts in regard to 
 actual sales, is but a license for guess work. 
 
 The lists of actual sales obtained in this way should 
 then be checked by statements obtained from the courts 
 of the valuations made by appraisers appointed to deter- 
 mine the value of the estates of deceased persons. For 
 the same purpose it would be possible to use the mort- 
 gages executed within the last two ^-ears preceding the 
 census period. From these the value could be roughly 
 estimated by assuming that the property was mortgaged 
 for a certain proportion of its value. If in addition to 
 these sources of information a special agent could visit 
 the different localities, talking with owners, real estate 
 agents and other persons, it would be possible to arrive 
 very closely at the true value. None of these sources 
 of information seems to have been utilized.' 
 
 The sources of possible error to be guarded against 
 are: ist, mistakes in the judgments and statements of 
 the persons to whom the inquiries are sent ; 2nd, the 
 omission of lands from the assessment ; 3rd, differences 
 in the definition of real estate in the different state laws. 
 The first source is one which involves the whole theory of 
 statistical observation and cannot be enlarged upon here. 
 
 The second error is, I am convinced, a very large one. 
 In verj' few of the states are there any good and com- 
 
 ' It has been found impossible at this late date to obtain a complete 
 set of the schedules, etc., used in compiling these statistics. Through 
 the kindness of Mr. King, census clerk in the Department of the In- 
 terior, as complete a set as possible was sent to me. The judgments 
 above expressed were iirst formed by a study of the returns in the 
 census, and were afterwards confirmed by an examination of blanks 
 numbered 7-466 and 7-467. It is, however, due the Census Office that 
 I should quote from Mr. King's letter : " Please bear in mind that it 
 is not complete, (/. e., the set of blanks) and can only be used as in- 
 dicating something of the scope and manner of the inquiry : any 
 specific subject which might be criticized from these papers might 
 have been exactly covered by some one of those that are missing. ' ' 
 
382 American Economic Association. 
 
 plete maps for the use of the assessors, and it is rare that 
 the assessinent is carefully checked by the use of maps. 
 The assumption that all real estate is assessed is far from 
 the truth.' My attention has frequently been called by 
 assessors to the fact that they have discovered and 
 assessed lands which had been overlooked by their pre- 
 decessors. In a single county in California lands, now 
 assessed at over $500,000, but which for 3'ears had es- 
 caped taxation, were recently discovered by the asse.ssor. 
 In addition to such items there is in many parts of the 
 couutr}', even in New England, and especially on the 
 Pacific Coast, a considerable amount of land, known in 
 the West as " Sobrante," that is irregularly shaped pieces 
 of land between grants, townships and sections, not cov- 
 ered by the descriptions in the surveys. The correction 
 of this error is far beyond the power of the Census- 
 Office. It will have to await the completion of more 
 adequate surveys. 
 
 The third source of error, namely the differences in 
 the definitions of real estate for assessment purposes, is 
 most complex and difficult to deal with. It can, how- 
 ever, be avoided by a careful comparison of the laws of 
 the different states and by reductions and readjustments 
 according to some uniform plan. The Census Office it- 
 self should draw up a simple and clear definition of real 
 estate and follow that uniformly, changing the local 
 definitions to conform thereto. The principal difficulty 
 here, namely, the classification of possessory claims as 
 personal property, will be discussed below in connection 
 with taxation.^ 
 
 ' Even the total area of the country is not definitely known. Com- 
 pare in this connection the very interesting discussion of the Area of 
 the United States by W. F. Willcox. Am. Econ. Assn. Studies 
 2 : 211-228. 
 
 ^See pp. 4oo,ff. 
 
Valuation and Taxation. 383 
 
 The conclusion is that the method used by the eleventh 
 census to obtain the value of real estate was defective in 
 several particulars. It depended too much upon opinion, 
 and many facts which would have aided in making the 
 estimate were not collected. If for reasons of economy 
 it is found impossible to employ special agents to ascer- 
 tain the value of real estate, a far more satisfactory result 
 could have been obtained by the method suggested 
 above. 
 
 " No attempt has been made to ascertain the value 
 of improvements separate from that of lands, or of city 
 or town lots separate from other lands measured by 
 acres, as the state reports do not generally make such 
 divisions, and original investigations as to land values 
 have not been instituted by this office.'" 
 
 The idea here expressed, that since it is not always 
 feasible to ascertain the assessed value of improvements 
 separately, it is not worth while to ascertain the true 
 value of improvements apart from the land, is an in- 
 heritance from the time when the two purposes of the 
 investigation above stated were combined. There are 
 many items in the above list, the separate assessed value 
 of which could not be learned, and these were neverthe- 
 less wisely segregated. Moreover, it would be possible 
 in most parts of the country to ascertain the value of 
 improvements separately. The investigation into farms 
 and homes could easily have been extended so as to 
 show the relative value of town lots as compared with 
 lands measured by the acre. In many states, building 
 contracts are a matter of record and with these it is 
 possible to ascertain the value of improvements especi- 
 ally in cities.^ It would be extremely useful to know 
 this item separately. 
 
 I Eleventh Census, Wealth, Debt, and Taxation, 2: 7. 
 
 ^ For application of this method see Illinois Bureau of L,abor Sta- 
 
384 American Economic Association. 
 
 "The value of mines and quarries, including product 
 on hand, is the capital invested in these enterprises, as 
 shown by the Report on Mineral Industries for the 
 Eleventh Census. It does not represent the amount of 
 capital stock issued, but is the actual investment in the 
 land, buildings, fixtures, tools, implements, live stock 
 machinery, etc., including in some cases a small amount 
 of cash on hand, which was not reported separately and 
 could not therefore be eliminated. The commercial 
 value of the mines varies from day to day, but it is 
 thought, as only mines are included which appear to be 
 yielding more or less product, that their average com- 
 mercial value would be at least the amount of capital 
 actually invested therein. The lands and buildings 
 belonsfino- to mines in some states are assessed as real 
 estate, and to that extent their value may be also in- 
 cluded in that of real estate, as herein reported, but at 
 most the amount is not relatively great. In case the 
 tax is levied on the product, as in several states, the 
 real estate and improvements are not assessed for 
 taxation, and consequently would not be embraced in 
 any real estate values herein published."^ 
 
 There is much to be said in criticism of this method. 
 It is admittedly a guess and a bad one at that. The 
 value of a mine depends solely upon the present output 
 and the expectation in regard to the life of the mine, 
 so far as these facts are known. It has no necessary 
 connection with the amoimt of capital already expended 
 in roads, lands, buildings, machinery, shafts, tunnels, 
 etc. The expectation in regard to the richness and 
 
 tistics, Eightli Biennial Report, (1894). Also on a smaller scale, 
 Plehn, General Property Tax in California, Am. Econ. Assn., Studies 
 4 : 197, Appendix D. 
 
 ' Eleventh Census, Wealth, Debt, and Taxation, 2: 8. 
 
Valuation and Taxation. 385 
 
 size of the body of ore may prove to be mistaken, but 
 the " true value " is the commercial value to-day. For 
 the purpose of the census no other value is admissible. 
 Fluctuating as the commercial vahie may be, owing to 
 the uncertainties of mining, it is yet the best that 
 human agencies have been able to devise. It is the 
 value measured as accurately as men of experience and 
 training in such matters can measure it. The com- 
 mercial value of a mine varies from day to day. So 
 does the population of the country. But that fact does 
 not preclude the possibility of ascertaining what it is 
 to-day. This mistake is due to a forgetfulness of one of 
 the elementary principles of all statistical science : 
 " Every statistical investigation requires a limit of the 
 time and of the space in which it is to be made." A 
 mine or a quarry had a certain definite value June i, 
 1890, which could be ascertained. The fact that it 
 might have a different value July i has no bearing on 
 the problem before us. 
 
 The same criticism bears with equal force upon the 
 estimate of the value of railroads, which was set down 
 at the cost of construction. The value of a railroad, 
 June I, 1890, can be ascertained in most cases to a cent 
 by adding together the market value of the stocks, 
 bonds, and other securities by which various titles to 
 the road are transferred. The problem which the cen- 
 sus had to solve was not that troublesome one, with 
 which the courts are frequently vexed and over which 
 railroad commissioners worry, namely : what shall be 
 the capitalization upon which the government or the 
 courts may allow a railroad to earn interest ? It is not 
 what ought to be the valuation but what is the present 
 value ? 
 
 25 
 
386 American Economic Association. 
 
 The suggestion that the " true value " might be ascer- 
 tained by capitalizing the net earnings at 5 per cent, 
 a method which is actually applied by the census to 
 telegraphs and telephones, canals, etc., is equally arbi- 
 trary. The value of any property is determined by a 
 number of complex considerations affecting different 
 items of property differently. Among the most promi- 
 nent of these considerations are (i) present earnings, (2) 
 security, (3) estimated future earnings, (4) general re- 
 pute. Property belonging to corporations is especially 
 affected by such considerations, but the present value, — 
 the result of all such causes, — is definite and easily 
 ascertained. If a given railroad had 10,000 shares sell- 
 ing June I, 1890, in the market at $95 each, and 2,000 
 bonds selling the same day at $1,050 each, with no other 
 outstanding securities, that road was worth $3,050,000. 
 That sum represented the careful judgment of men ex- 
 perienced in estimating such values ; a judgment made 
 with a knowledge of all the circumstances which on that 
 day could affect in any way the value of the property. 
 Even supposing that the value were temporarily de- 
 pressed by a false rumor, that sum and no other was the 
 actual value of the road. The census can recognize no 
 other. The method of capitalizing the net earnings at 
 a certain per cent, or of finding the cost of construction, 
 is applicable, if at all, only to property that seldom 
 changes hands, and where the market value is not deter- 
 mined. It is certainly not applicable to railroad prop- 
 erty and the like, except in very rare instances. 
 
 " Of the miscellaneous, the value of furniture and 
 personal belongings constitutes a large portion. To 
 arrive at the value of such property an examination was 
 made of more than 8,000 insurance policies on contents 
 of houses not located in large cities, and the result 
 
Valuation and Taxation. 387 
 
 showed the average value of furniture insured in such 
 houses to be I387. The value of private carriages and 
 tools of mechanics is not known, but it is believed that 
 for each house in the United States there would be of 
 furniture, tools and carriages an average amount of 
 $400, making for the entire country a value of about 
 $5,000,000,000." ^ 
 
 This method ought to be fairly adequate ; if combined 
 with, and checked by, that used b}' the tenth census, 
 it certainly would be sufficient. That method is 
 described as follows : " The number of families in each 
 state was taken, and these were distributed, according to 
 the statistics of occupation, into certain characteristic 
 classes. The average value of the household goods, in 
 the families of each class, was then estimated as thought- 
 fully as possible, item by item, the values given to the 
 goods representing what they were v/orth to the owner, 
 or what it would cost to replace them, with fair allow- 
 ance for wear and tear, not what they would be worth to 
 sell as second-hand goods. These results, secondly, were 
 checked by an independent computation in which the 
 annual product, or importation of each class of household 
 goods, furniture, clothing, watches and jewelry, pianos 
 and sewing-machines, etc., was taken into account, and an 
 average ' life ' in use assigned to the goods of each class. 
 The result of this second and wholly independent com- 
 putation was to afford a somewhat striking corroboration 
 of the conclusions reached by the first method. Allow- 
 ance was then made on account of the average quantity 
 of food, fuel, and other supplies on hand for domestic 
 use, yielding the aggregate of five thousand million 
 dollars given to the table." ^ 
 
 ' Eleventh Census, Wealth, Debt and Taxation, 2:8. 
 ^ Tenth Census, 7 : 11 and 12. 
 
388 American Economic Association. 
 
 It is not clear that the item " miscellaneous " covers ex- 
 actly the same things in the tenth census as in the 
 eleventh, and the fact that no increase was found is 
 perhaps not significant. But here we have again an 
 example of one of the worst faults of this investigation. 
 We are not given sufficient explanation of the real sig- 
 nificance of the figures to enable us to interpret them. 
 In making the estimate certain definite items must have 
 been counted. It should be stated exactly what they 
 were, instead of concealing them under the term 
 "miscellaneous." 
 
 Among the miscellaneous is also " included the value 
 of public libraries and of personal property owned by the 
 national, state, and local governments exempt from 
 taxation, returns of which have been received at this 
 office from every county and nearly every municipality 
 in the country." ' The division of some of the items 
 between the different states is necessarily arbitrary and 
 no criticism can justly be made of the methods used by 
 the eleventh census in this respect. 
 
 To sum up, we have found : (i) that no logical classi- 
 fication of the items of wealth to be estimated was used ; 
 (2) that there are probably omissions of considerable im- 
 portance ; (3) that it will probably be found feasible to 
 obtain better information concerning important subdi- 
 visions of some of the classes, for example land values ; 
 (4) that under real estate, "improvements" might be 
 separated from land, farm lands from town lots ; (5) 
 that in only three of the eight items, (the second, fourth 
 and fifth), including a little over 10 per cent of the 
 total value obtained, were the methods used fairly satis- 
 factory ; (6) that in the other items, covering nearly 90 
 per cent of the total value reported, the methods used 
 ^Eleventh Census. Wealtli, Debt, and Taxation, 2 : 8. 
 
Valuation and Taxation. 389 
 
 were faulty and the results doubtful. This is especially 
 the case with mines and quarries, railroads, telegraphs and 
 telephones ; (7) that in few cases are we given sufficient 
 explanation to enable us to interpret the figures satisfac- 
 torily. 
 
 It has already been noted in the introductorj' part of 
 this review that the estimate of the total wealth of the 
 country in 1890 was upon an entirely different basis 
 from that used in any previous census with the possible 
 exception of that of 1880, and that comparisons could 
 not, therefore, properly be instituted between the 
 different census reports to show the increase or decrease 
 of wealth from decade to decade. Nevertheless such 
 comparisons were made and carried out at length. 
 This constitutes a most serious and mischievous error. 
 
 In answer to similar criticisms upon a preliminary 
 publication by the Census Office of such comparisons 
 the reply was made, "that at this day any correction 
 of the figures of true valuation for any previous census 
 period is utterly impossible, however desirable such 
 correction may be, the necessary information for the 
 purpose not being procurable." ' 
 
 The methods pursued by each census were then re- 
 viewed, and in conclusion the following warning was 
 given : 
 
 " In comparing the report of true valuation of 1890 
 with like valuations of previous periods it should be 
 borne in mind : 
 
 " First. That no statement of true valuation previous 
 to 1890 iricluded the value of vacant state or national 
 land or Indian reservations. 
 
 " Second. That the true valuation for 1870 admittedly 
 embraces certain duplications of value of personal prop- 
 
 'Eleventh Census. Wealth, Debt, and Taxation, 2 ; 9. 
 
3go American Econoinic Assoeiaiio7i. 
 
 erty, arising from the taxation of mortgages and the 
 realt}' represented by them, and that the values are 
 inflated, owing to the depreciation of the standard then 
 in use, requiring a corrective reduction of 20 per cent. 
 
 "Third. That for i860 and 1850 the true valuation 
 appears to have been made by adding to the assessor's 
 list such an amount as would, in the opinion of the 
 officer reporting, compensate for the undervaluations of 
 the assessor. If such course was pursued, no property 
 exempt from taxation or which escaped the assessor's 
 list is included as a part of the property valued. 
 
 "These admitted differences of method pursued in 
 reaching the figures of true valuation for the several 
 census periods, and the temporary character of the Cen- 
 sus Office, of themselves preclude any attempt of one 
 census to revise the figures of a previous one ; and the 
 figures as published, if not as accurate as desired, can be 
 accepted with safety as showing in a general way a con- 
 tinuous increase in the wealth of the nation, the exact 
 proportions of which cannot be measured." ' 
 
 It would seem that this answer to the objections is 
 not entirely relevant, and the warnings against com- 
 parisons have practically little value in preventing false 
 conclusions from being drawn w^hen the census report 
 itself carries out these inadmissible comparisons in de- 
 tail.^ It is a grand thing to have the scope of our cen- 
 sus inquiries enlarged with each succeeding decade, but 
 the unmodified results of enlarged investigations should 
 not be compared with those of older and narrower in- 
 vestigations. In this respect the form of the report in 
 
 'Eleventh Census. Wealth, Debt, and Taxation, 2 : 10 and 11. 
 
 ''Ibid, Table 3, p. 14, summarised in table on p. 9. See on the same 
 subject an article by H. t,. Bliss, Journal of Political Economy, 4 : 
 86-93 (■895-96), v.'here a similar criticism is advanced. The appen- 
 dix to this review (pp. 4ii,ff. ), contains a list of inadmissible compari- 
 sons. 
 
Valnation and Taxation. 391 
 
 the tenth census^ is somewhat better. There the valu- 
 ations for 1850, i860, and 1870 are republished, with ex- 
 planations of their significance, but no direct tabular 
 comparisons are made. 
 
 Although the census of 1880 undertook to ascertain 
 all the wealth of the country, its methods and conse- 
 quently its results were different from those of the 
 eleventh census, so that it is not wise to use these two, 
 even, for anything save the roughest comparisons. 
 
 It is perfectly clear that the errors of the eleventh 
 census as pointed out above make it undesirable to per- 
 petuate its methods. Thus it remains for the twelfth 
 census to make a fresh start and to establish a perma- 
 nent and perfectly satisfactory method for ascertaining 
 and measuring the wealth of the country. If such a 
 method is established and continued, we shall, perhaps, 
 in the future be able to measure our progress in material 
 well-being. 
 
 Perhaps it is not possible to outline in all its details 
 the method which should be adopted, but the general 
 outlines of what should be aimed at are not difficult to 
 state. First the exact date to which the census estimate 
 refers should be carefully determined and, as far as pos- 
 sible, all valuations should be reduced so as to apply to 
 that date. All exceptions should be clearly stated. 
 The space limit is also to be determined. Wealth 
 within our national boundaries alone should be included. 
 The items of wealth should be treated as far as possible 
 objectively. Credit instruments representing claims 
 upon property already counted should be omitted, but 
 all other credit instruments, such as foreign government 
 bonds, stocks and bonds of foreign corporations, 
 etc., might, perhaps, be properly included, if ascertain- 
 
 ' Tenth Census, 7 : 1-15. 
 
392 American Economic Association. 
 
 able. Our own government bonds, etc., may well be 
 omitted, although in a certain sense they represent an 
 increase of present wealth at the expense of the future. 
 But as they form a part of another investigation, any 
 one desiring the total present wealth of the country can 
 make the addition for himself. Credit currency can also 
 be safely omitted. Then a general, hypothetical, work- 
 ing classification should be determined according to 
 strict logical principles and along the broadest possible 
 lines. It may not, at first, be possible to obtain figures 
 for all the sub-divisions which seem desirable, but it is 
 well to indicate them. The classifications used in 1880 
 and 1890 were mere haphazard arrangements. It is 
 impossible from them to tell whether all kinds of wealth 
 are included and where any given item belongs. 
 
 The task of forming a comprehensive and elastic 
 classification is not particularly difficult. We have, 
 traditionally, two great classes of wealth, real estate 
 and personal property. Every item of wealth in the 
 world fits easily under one or the other of these.' Then 
 there are three ways in which any one item in these two 
 (or three) kinds of property may be owned, (i) It may 
 belong to the public, that is, belong to some branch of 
 the government or be held in trust for the public benefit.^ 
 (2) It may belong to a quasi-public corporation or a 
 public service corporation. (3) It may belong to a 
 private individual. There are no other conceivable 
 
 ' A possible exception is water craft, steam and sailing vessels, of 
 whicli we might if deemed necessary make a third class, but there can 
 be no serious objection to including them under personal property. 
 
 2 The test here should be whether it is legally possible for the cor- 
 poration or persons holding the property in trust to alienate it or so 
 dispose of it that a public purpose is no longer served thereby. It 
 would include in most instances the endowment of educational and 
 benevolent institutions. Church property, however, is generally 
 purely private property and would seldom be included. 
 
Valuation and Taxation. 393 
 
 ways in which property can be owned than these. It is 
 then a very simple task to outline the proper, natural, 
 and logical classification of wealth for a national in- 
 ventory. 
 
 The following rough outline of such a classification is 
 presented by way of illustration. The details included 
 are not intended to be complete, but rather as suggestive 
 and explanatory. 
 
 I. Real Estate ; 
 A. Public: 
 
 1. L,ands : 
 
 a. National, 
 
 b. Commonwealth, 
 
 c. Local, 
 
 d. Educational and benevolent trusts. 
 
 2. Structures and improvements of all kinds : 
 
 a. National : 
 
 (I.) For defense, 
 
 (2.) For the various departments of govern- 
 ment, 
 (3.) River and harbor improvements. 
 
 b. Commonwealth : 
 
 (i.) For the various departments of govern- 
 ment, 
 
 (2.) For education, 
 
 (3.; Public highways, canals, bridges, 
 wharves, etc. 
 
 c. Local : 
 
 ( I. ) For general departments of government, 
 
 (2.) For education, 
 
 (3.) Streets, bridges, wharves, etc., 
 
 (4.) Public works — water, gas, electric 
 
 light, street cars, irrigation works, 
 
 etc. 
 
394 Atnerican Economic Association. 
 
 d. Educational and benevolent trusts ; 
 
 (With suitable subdivisions, — schools, 
 colleges, universities, hospitals, asy- 
 lums, etc.) 
 
 B. Public service corporations : (Railroad com- 
 
 panies, street car companies, electric light 
 and power companies, gas companies, water 
 companies, irrigation companies, telegraph 
 and telephone companies, etc.) 
 
 1. L,ands necessarily used in the execution of 
 
 their functions. (L,and held for sale or 
 speculation should be included under 
 C. I.) 
 
 2. Improvements and structures of all kinds 
 
 necessary to the execution of their func- 
 tions. 
 
 C. Private : 
 
 1. L,ands : 
 
 a. Farm land, (by acre.) 
 
 b. lyOtS, 
 
 c. Mining lands and quarries, petroleum wells, 
 
 etc., 
 
 d. Submerged lands : for oyster-beds, etc. 
 
 2. Improvements : 
 
 a. On farm lands, including houses, barns and 
 
 other structures, wind mills and tanks, 
 wells, fences, drains and irrigation ditches, 
 timber, orchard trees, bushes, vines, etc., 
 
 b. On lots, 
 
 c. Mining and quarry structures, 
 
 d. Wharves, piers, etc. 
 
 II. Personal Property, Movables, etc. : 
 A. Public : 
 I. National : 
 
Valuatio7i and Taxation. 395 
 
 a. Arras, ammunition, and all sorts of mov- 
 
 ables connected with the national defense, 
 
 b. lyibraries, art galleries, etc., 
 
 c. Furniture of buildings, etc. 
 
 2. Coinmonwealth : 
 
 (General subdivisions similar to national.) 
 
 3. L,ocal : 
 
 (General subdivisions similar to national.) 
 
 4. Educational and benevolent : 
 
 (General subdivisions similar to national.) 
 
 B. Public Service Corporations : 
 
 1. Their franchises, patents, good will, etc., 
 
 2. Machiuery and equipment, 
 
 3. Their furniture and the like, 
 
 4. Other cash assets, {i. e., not including any 
 
 credit claims). 
 
 C. Private: 
 
 1. lyive stock, poultry, etc., whether on or off 
 
 farms, 
 
 2. Farming tools and machinery, 
 
 3. Carriages, wagons, bicycles, etc., 
 
 4. Household furniture, paintings, books, cloth- 
 
 ing, jewelry, firearms, musical instruments, 
 sewing machines, supplies of food, fuel, etc., 
 
 5. Merchandise, goods and wares of dealers or pro- 
 
 ducers, (including beer, wines, liquors, etc.), 
 
 6. Tools of mechanics, 
 
 7. Professional libraries, 
 
 8. Fixtures of saloons, stores, offices, and places 
 
 of business, typewriters, etc,, 
 
 9. Machinery of mills, including engines, dyna- 
 
 mos, presses, etc., 
 10. Patents, copyrights, good will of business, and 
 other intangible personal property. 
 
396 Ainerican Economic Association. 
 
 D. Gold and silver coin and bnllion. 
 III. Water craft, (unless included in II) : 
 
 A. Public, including the wdCMj. 
 
 B. Belonging to public service corporation : 
 
 C. Private: 
 
 1. Steam, 
 
 2. Sail, 
 
 3. All other.' 
 
 Some such classification as this, proceeding along 
 logical and comprehensive lines, should be made. Its 
 construction would serve several purposes. It would 
 reveal, or call attention to, many forms of wealth not in- 
 cluded in the tenth or eleventh census. It would sug- 
 gest the clearest way of presenting the results. Every 
 form of wealth which may be discovered should have 
 its proper place somewhere in the classification. The 
 precise meaning of each item could be seen at a glance. 
 If such a classification were used, the only explanations 
 necessary would be those applying to cases in which for 
 some good reason items were omitted or combined with 
 others. Finally it would be easily possible to abstract 
 from such a table the figures which represented the 
 items covered in any previous census for comparison 
 with them, and there would no longer be any possible 
 excuse for the naive comparisons of totals representing 
 unlike quantities. 
 
 It is not necessary that the general classification 
 
 ^In the construction of such a complete list of all kinds of prop- 
 erty much assistance can be obtained from the lists in use by the as- 
 sessors in the different states. These lists, which have been expanded 
 as experience demanded, are in many cases extremely comprehensive. 
 By noting every item mentioned in any of these forms, or assessment 
 schedules, and adding the kinds of property exempt, one could make 
 a list of every kind of property in existence. The arrangement of 
 these items according to some logical plan for classification, would 
 then be a simple matter. 
 
Valuation and Taxation. 397 
 
 adopted should be rigidly followed. In many special 
 instances it would be best to depart from it. For 
 example, the separation of the \'alue of the real estate 
 of railroads from their other property is extremely diffi- 
 cult. The value of the right of way, the road bed, and of 
 the rails, bridges and other structures on the right of way 
 is largely dependent upon their connections with the 
 system. The separation of real estate from personal 
 property in that case would be more or less arbitrary. 
 Here it would be sufficient to ascertain the total value. 
 Should any one desire further details he could obtain 
 them from other sources, such as the Report of the 
 Interstate Commerce Commission. At the same time, if 
 that were done, the total value of railroad property 
 should not be classed as personal property, but should 
 form a group by itself. But the establishment of a 
 working classification as a means of planning the in- 
 vestigation, of checking the different processes, and as a 
 general guide in the presentation of the results, is an 
 absolute necessity. 
 
 II. ASSESSED VAI^UATION OF PROPERTY TAXED AND 
 AD VALOREM TAXATION. 
 
 That part of the census of 1890 which deals with the 
 assessment and taxation of property is much more satis- 
 factory than that dealing with wealth. Here we have 
 a most intricate and difficult problem treated in a man- 
 ner at once clear and comprehensive. For many pur- 
 poses it would have been advantageous had the limits 
 of the investigation been extended, but within the limits 
 set the results are nearly all that could be desired. The 
 errors and omissions noted are few and very insignifi- 
 cant. The mere enumeration of them would give them 
 a fictitious importance out of all proportion to their 
 
3g8 American Economic Association. 
 
 weight. The reviewer's duty thus becomes mainly one 
 of exposition. It will not be amiss, however, to discuss 
 the extensions of the investigation which might, per- 
 haps, be adopted in the twelfth census. 
 
 The inquiry was directed to ascertain the assessed 
 value of taxable property and the amount of taxes levied 
 upon that property. The importance of the inquiry 
 arises from the fact that the taxation of property is uni- 
 versal in the United States. In every state and territory 
 in the Union, without a single exception, there is some 
 sort of an assessment, for the purpose of taxation, of a 
 considerable portion of the property of citizens. It is 
 nearly true that every branch of government, below the 
 national, levies taxes upon property.' 
 
 ^ The only exceptions in 1890 were as follows : 
 
 In Connecticut no ad valorem tax on property for state purposes ; 
 nor for county purposes, except in three counties. 
 
 In Delaware no ad valorem tax for state purposes. 
 
 In Illinois one county levied no ad valorem tax on property except 
 for schools. 
 
 In Iowa a number of townships levied no tax on property except 
 for schools. 
 
 In Kentucky there was considerable variety in the practice of local 
 governments : in 4'; counties there were no municipal taxes on prop- 
 erty except for schools ; 14 counties levied no taxes on property ex- 
 cept for schools ; in 8 towns and i city there were no town or city 
 taxes on property for schools ; and in one county, no county tax for 
 schools. 
 
 In Louisiana there were numerous irregularities in local taxation 
 which defy classification, but which altogether are not important. 
 
 In Maine 14 plantations levied no state tax except for schools, x 
 levied no state tax at all, i none for schools, i town levied no state 
 tax at all, i none for schools, and 1 1 plantations and i town paid no 
 county taxes. 
 
 In New Jersey no ad valorem tajf for state purposes, except for 
 schools. 
 
 In Pennsylvania state ad valorem taxes fell on personal prop- 
 erty only. 
 
 In Rhode Island there are no county taxes ; the county in this state 
 is merely a judicial district for the state courts, and is not practically 
 a government at all, so that this is an exception in form merely. 
 
Valuation and Taxation. 399 
 
 The assessed valuation is given under three headings: 
 " total," " real estate," and "personal property." These 
 necessarily follow the definitions given in the tax laws 
 of the different states.' When several different valua- 
 tions were made by different authorities that one was 
 selected which was final or which came nearest to the 
 true value. The purely arbitrary, occasional valuations 
 used in some states for the apportionment of state taxes 
 were not taken. In those cases the local valuations, 
 more frequently revised, were taken. 
 
 Ad valorem taxation is stated under the following 
 headings: (i) total, (2) state, (3) county and (4) 
 municipal levy, except for schools ; (5) state levy for 
 schools and (6) county and minor divisions levy for 
 schools.^ 
 
 There are certain fundamental difficulties which beset 
 the compilation and presentation of the statistics, and 
 which complicate and largely invalidate any com- 
 parisons between different states. These difficulties 
 arise from the differences in the revenue laws of the 
 different states, and from the differences in fiscal prac- 
 
 In Vermont there was one town in which real estate was exempt 
 fromi state taxation and one in which all personal property evaded 
 taxation. 
 
 In Wisconsin the state tax on property is only for educational pur- 
 poses and to meet the debt charges. 
 
 There are a few other exceptions which defy classification. For the 
 most part these exceptions are due to peculiarities in the frame of local 
 government, rather than to peculiarities in taxation. It is practically 
 true that there is some kind of ad valorem taxation of some kinds of 
 property in every part of the country. The universality of this 
 method of taxation, in spite of the variety in the forms of government, 
 is a most remarkable fact. 
 
 ' As these vary much from state to state the sums given represent 
 somewhat different things. This logical difficulty which cannot be 
 altogether avoided will be discussed below. 
 
 ^ It does not appear to be feasible to segregate the levies for other 
 than school purposes as none of them is universally separated in the 
 public accounts. 
 
4.00 American Economic Association. 
 
 tice. The kinds of property assessed are different in 
 every state, or, perhaps more accurately stated, the list 
 of exemptions is different in every state. Thus while 
 in 1890 the California law called for the assessment and 
 taxation of every kind of private property except grow- 
 ing crops, that of Illinois, to choose an example some- 
 what at random, exempted churches, certain property 
 devoted to education, cemeteries, possessory claims, 
 property devoted to purely charitable uses, free public 
 libraries and the property of agricultural, horticultural, 
 mechanical and philosophical societies. In other states 
 the list of exemptions was different, sometimes longer, 
 sometimes shorter.' To add together the assessed valua- 
 tions of all the states is, therefore, from a certain point 
 of view, to commit the error against which school child- 
 ren are warned when stud)dng arithmetic ; namely, 
 adding unlike quantities, such as two potatoes and 
 three apples. Not only is the legal definition of assess- 
 able or taxable property different in every state, but the 
 practice of the states is so varied as to give a still more 
 uncertain meaning to any figures stating the assessed 
 valuation. The rate of assessment to the true value and 
 the kinds of property which are actually reached or 
 which escape vary from state to state. For example, 
 the assessment of property in California was in 1890 at 
 about two-thirds of the true value, in Illinois at less 
 than one-fourth. At the same time a far larger propor- 
 tion of taxable property was reached in California than 
 in Illinois. 
 
 Of the differences due to the law the census very 
 properly took cognizance by outlining the revenue laws 
 
 ' The entire list of exemptions is constantly changing, generally in- 
 creasing. Its growth and the variations in differents parts of the 
 country afford a most instructive commentary on the tendencies of 
 democracy and the forces which determine legislative action. 
 
Valuation and Taxation. 401 
 
 of each state. But little or notliing is said, directly,, 
 about the differences in practice. Some light can be 
 had as to the rate at which the real estate is assessed by 
 comparing the assessed value of that kind of property 
 with the true value as given b)- the census in connection 
 with the estimate of wealth. But, as we have seen, the 
 estimate of wealth is not very satisfactory. Nothing is 
 definitely stated as to the amount of taxable personal 
 property which is exempt or which escapes, nor as to the 
 rate at which the balance is assessed. From no data 
 given by the eleventh census is it possible to ascertain 
 these facts. The estimate of the true value of all 
 tangible wealth is of no use in this connection. First, 
 because not all of it is taxable, and secondly, because 
 many things are taxable which are not tangible wealth. 
 It is for these reasons that the reduction of the assessed 
 valuation to a per capita rate or of ad valorem taxation 
 to a rate on the total true valuation or on the a.ssessed 
 valuation has little practical value for purposes of com- 
 parison. Thus, for example, we are told that the assessed 
 valuation of Illinois is $153-53 per capita and of Califor- 
 nia, $737.88 per capita, and, that the rate in Illinois, of all 
 taxation, is $4.09 on each $100 of assessed valuation, 
 and of California $1.70. We are further told that the 
 true value of taxable real estate in Illinois was $3,108,- 
 000,000, of which the assessment was 18.85 P^^ cent. 
 The true value of taxable real estate in California 
 (which we must not forget differs in some items from 
 the kinds of real estate taxable in Illinois) is given as 
 $515,500,000, which is assessed at about 60 per cent. 
 That is, real estate taxed in Illinois bears a burden of 
 about 1.06 per cent ; in California, 1.24 percent.^ But 
 
 ' There are quite a number of other corrections which should be 
 26 
 
402 American Economic Associatio7i. 
 
 it is not possible to go any further than this in estimat- 
 ing: the burden of ad valorem taxation. The most 
 serious omission is that the true valuation of personal 
 property that is exempt is not given ; nor are we in- 
 formed as to the amount of taxable personal property 
 which escapes by fraudulent evasion, or the rate at 
 which the remainder is assessed. To make the infor- 
 mation concerning ad valorem taxation complete the 
 next census should endeavor to ascertain the following 
 details in addition to those given in the eleventh: (i) 
 What part of the real estate exempt from taxation in each 
 state is private property and what part belongs to some 
 branch of the government? ' (2) Wbat part of the pe-r 
 sonal property in each state is exempt and what part of 
 that belongs to the government? (3) How much per- 
 sonal property escapes taxation by fraudulent evasion, 
 and at what rate the balance is assessed ? (4) If the 
 estimate of wealth is, as it has been in tlie past, con- 
 fined to tangible wealth, how much intangible wealth is 
 assessed ? ^ 
 
 In connection with the difficulties which the investi- 
 gation into ad valorem taxation has to encounter, we 
 must not overlook the lack of uniformity in- the defini- 
 tion of real and of personal property in the different 
 
 applied before even this comparison is permissible. The distribution 
 of railroad property between real estate and personal properly is not 
 the same in the assessed valuation as in the true valuation. In Cali- 
 fornia a certain amount of unpatented land is ta.Nied as personal prop- 
 erty under the head of possessory claims ; this is exempt in Illinois. 
 In California all realty not belonging to some branch of the govern- 
 ment is taxable and in Illinois a considerable amount of such realty is 
 exempt. All things considered, it is probable that the average burden 
 on real estate is about the same in each of these two states. 
 
 ' The true value of all exempt real estate vi^as estimated by the 
 eleventh census. 
 
 ' Should some such outline as that above suggested for the estimate 
 of wealth find favor and be adopted, it would be comparatively easy to 
 ascertain these items. 
 
Valuation and Taxation. 403 
 
 state revenue laws. Remarkable as it may seem, the 
 revenue law definitions do not conform very closely to 
 the common law distinctions nor to the accepted ideas. 
 As a result of these differences of definition some of the 
 most curious results are shown by the statistics presented 
 in the last census. Thus, for example, it seems at 
 first glance inexplicable that in the more recently 
 settled states or territories the proportion of personal 
 property taxed to the total amount of property taxed 
 should be so large as it is shown to be. In Montana, 
 Wyoming, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada and Idaho 
 the amount of personal property assessed exceeded that 
 of real estate assessed. This appears to be very remark- 
 able when we note that for the country at large the 
 assessed valuation of personal property is only one-third 
 that of real property and in most of the older states even 
 less, while the census estimate of the true value of per- 
 sonal property is only two-thirds that of real property. 
 The fact is that this difference is largely a matter of 
 definition. In the states named improvements upon 
 lands the fee to which had not yet been acquired by 
 the settler and, except in Idaho, the value of his partially 
 matured claim to the land were assessed as personal 
 property.^ The significance of this difference of definition 
 is apparent when we notice that in these states and ter- 
 ritories more than half of the real estate (by true value) 
 was exempt from taxation, and that in the Western 
 division, which includes these states, 46.6 per cent of 
 all real estate was exempt, against less than 10 per cent 
 in all other divisions.^ 
 
 ' Idaho, Illinois and Iowa exempted possessory claims. 
 
 'Per cent of real estate exempt from taxation, 1890. (Deduced 
 from Table 2, Wealth, Debt and Taxation, 2 : 13.) 
 
 The United States 9.3 per cent. 
 
 North Atlantic Div 8.7 " " 
 
404 American Economic Association. 
 
 The greatest difficulty is that no two .states of the 
 Union have the same revenue system, no two of them 
 assess property in exactly the same way, nor do they 
 assess the same kinds of property. So that, although 
 the general property tax does appear in every state, 
 it appears in a great variety of forms which cannot 
 readily be reduced to that uniformity required in statis- 
 tical tables. Upon this point, and after calling atten- 
 tion to these and other irregularities in commonwealth 
 taxation. Professor Seligman said in 1889: "The in- 
 ference from all these facts, so far as our present pur- 
 pose is concerned, is that the statistics of valuation and 
 assessment are of exceedingly little value for purposes 
 of comparison. If all the property, or if even all the real 
 estate, in the commonwealths were assessed at some 
 fixed ratio to its actual value, we would at least possess 
 some data for comparison. But as long as each com- 
 monwealth or county appraises its property at an arbi- 
 trary rate which does not appear on the books and 
 which differs in each instance, it is manifest that the 
 figures afford no exact criterion of actual proportions, 
 and that any conclusion based on the assumption of the 
 correctness of the statistics would be utterly fallacious.'" 
 
 South Atlantic Div 7.1 per cent. 
 
 North Central Div 6.3 " " 
 
 South Central Div 11. i " " (Includes Oklahoma and Indian 
 
 territory exempt. ) 
 Western Division 46. 6 per cent. 
 
 Montana 47. 4 per cent. 
 
 Wyoming 71.4 " 
 
 New Mexico 66.7 " " 
 
 Arizona 73.4 " " 
 
 Nevada 72.6 " " 
 
 Idaho 70.3 " " 
 
 Of course, a very large portion of this was government land proper ; 
 still a large amount is in process of acquisition by private individuals. 
 
 'Am. Stat. Assn. Publications, 2 ; 410 (18 
 
Valuation and Taxation. 405 
 
 III. RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES OF NATIONAL AND 
 LOCAL GOVERNMENTS. 
 
 Of the matters presented in this part of the investi- 
 gation we shall consider only that referring to state and 
 local governments, and we shall omit any consideration 
 of municipal or city finance. 
 
 Under the head of receipts we have an outline of the 
 monies covered into the various treasuries during the 
 fiscal years ending in 1890. Some confiision arises 
 from the fact that the date to which the investigation 
 refers is not as clearly stated as it might be and that it 
 differs from that to which the section on assessment and 
 ad valorem taxation applies. The ad valorem taxation 
 referred to in the first part is generally that levied on 
 the assessment made during the year 1890, and hence 
 was mainly for the support of the governments during 
 the year 1891. That referred to in the second part is 
 for the most part that which was levied on the assess- 
 ment of 1889 and paid during 1890. There could be 
 no serious objection to such changes of date as this if 
 they were always clearly stated in some prominent place. 
 But one fault of the eleventh census is that the date to 
 which the statistics refer is frequently hard to find, 
 being buried in the explanatory text, and not at all 
 uniform.' 
 
 The receipts of the state and local governments are 
 given under the following headings : 
 
 Total. 
 
 'In some of the tables, notably those showing the receipts and ex- 
 penditures of the states in detail and of the counties in the same way, 
 a most excellent plan is followed of introducing a column showing 
 the exact date to which each line of figures refers. Some such plan 
 should be carried through the whole of the work. In this respect the 
 tenth census was superior, the explanatory text being in every case 
 headed by a statement of the date to which the figures refer. 
 
4o6 American Economic Association. 
 
 Ad valorem taxes on real and personal property. 
 Corporations separately reported : 
 Banks and bankers, 
 Railroads, 
 Other. 
 Licenses : 
 lyiquor, 
 Other. 
 Penal and reformatory institutions. 
 Income from funds and investments. 
 Water works and other enterprises, net. 
 Sale of property. 
 Fees, fines and penalties. 
 Special assessments : 
 
 Streets and bridges. 
 Sewers. 
 Interest on deposits. 
 Reimbursements and miscellaneous. 
 In a general way this classification is most excellent. 
 It is certainly clear and logical. Little improvement 
 upon it can be desired. The labor which it cost to 
 rearrange the complex accounts of the public monies, 
 which are kept by about as many different systems as 
 there are separate treasuries must have been tremendous. 
 The few tests that I have been able to apply show the 
 work to have been done carefully and accurately. The 
 only questions for consideration in connection with the 
 plan of the twelfth census arise in connection with the 
 desirability of more detail on certain points. 
 
 Ad valorem taxes on real and personal property fur- 
 nished, in 1890, approximately 75 per cent of the total 
 receipts of state and local governments. The balance 
 was raised by special taxes and other forms of revenue 
 cited in the above list. Many of these special sources 
 
Valuation and Taxation. 407 
 
 of revenue are of growing importance, while the general 
 property tax is not holding quite the same position of 
 relative importance among the different revenues which 
 it held some years ago. It is unfortunate that the tenth 
 census afforded no statistics from which we can measure 
 the development of new sources of income. For this 
 purpose it would be desirable if some of the items were 
 given more in detail. Although the item of miscella- 
 neous is only $27,000,000 out of a total of ^584,000,000 
 or only 4.8 p^r cent, yet it embraces at once the oldest 
 and the newest ta.xes in use, and some of the most inte- 
 resting sources of revenue. Among other things it in- 
 cludes poll taxes and inheritance taxes. That the 
 former were not segregated is remarkable in view of 
 their age and general prevalence. But the interest in 
 the latter is more recent than the eleventh census. In 
 1890, inheritance taxes existed in but five states. 
 Between that date and the close of the legislative ses- 
 sions of 1897 the older forms of the inheritance taxes 
 have been much extended and ten other states have 
 adopted that method of obtaining revenues. 
 
 Under taxes on "corporations separately reported" 
 two things appear to be confused, which it would be 
 well to keep separate. They are: (i) the taxes levied 
 upon certain corporations as banks, and railroads, under 
 the regular forms of and by the method of the general 
 property tax, and (2) special taxes upon corporations 
 according to some other plan. Thus in California a 
 part of the taxes on railroads happen to be separately 
 reported mereh' because certain forms of railroad prop- 
 erty are assessed by the state board of equalization 
 and not b}- the count}' assessors, a method of procedure 
 involving no change whatever from the principles of the 
 general property tax of which this is a part ; while in 
 
4o8 American Economic Association. 
 
 the same column we find the corporation taxes of Penn- 
 sylvania, Connecticnt and other states, which are based 
 upon entirely distinct principles and methods.' 
 
 In a general way it may be stated that more detail is 
 desirable in all statements of receipts oilier than taxes 
 on assessed valuation, and the meaning of the figures 
 should be more fully explained. The headings and the 
 columns give an artificial appearance of uniformity that 
 is entirely lacking as a matter of fact. Taxation varies 
 in character so much from state to state that no bald 
 statement of figures is adequate. It is not possible to 
 assume that many, if any, of the users of the census are 
 sufficiently familiar with the law and practice of the 
 different states to interpret the figures given correctly. 
 Every table should, therefore, be accompanied by full 
 explanations. 
 
 Of the tables concerning state expenditures little need 
 be said. So far as they go they appear to be eminently 
 satisfactory. The expenditures are given under the fol- 
 lowing headings : 
 
 Legislative, 
 
 Executive, 
 
 Judicial, including county courts, inquiries, and in- 
 quests. 
 
 Military, 
 
 Educational purposes and public schools. 
 
 Charitable, 
 
 Interest, 
 
 Penal and reformatory, 
 
 Buildings and sites, including care and maintenance. 
 
 Waterworks and other enterprises, net, 
 
 ' Moreover all of the taxes on railroads in California are not sepa- 
 rately reported, a part being included in the assessment made by the 
 county assessors. 
 
Valuation a?id Taxation. 409 
 
 Salaries separately reported, fees, and commissions, 
 
 Roads, sewers, ditches, and bridges. 
 
 New buildings, works, and sites, separately reported. 
 
 Police, 
 
 Public parks and places, 
 
 Fire, 
 
 Health, 
 
 Lighting, 
 
 Miscellaneous. 
 
 The uses to which statistics of public expenditure 
 may be put are so varied, the expenditures themselves 
 are so complex that a strict classification is practically 
 impossible and the broad divisions above cited are prob- 
 ably as satisfactory and generally useful as could be de- 
 vised. Especially valuable are the tables showing the 
 receipts and expenditures of the commonwealths for 
 ■each year of the decade from 1880 to 1889. These 
 tables are full of instruction and interest and should if 
 possible be continued. 
 
 IV. GENERAL CONCLUSION. 
 
 While the investigations of the eleventh census into 
 taxation are eminently satisfactory within their ac- 
 knowledged limits, there is still room for considerable 
 expansion and rearrangement before the final scheme is 
 adopted to be continued by each census throughout the 
 twentieth century. In the first place the point of view 
 from which the whole investigation is conducted should 
 be changed. In the earlier censuses the investigation 
 into state and local taxation was made, not for its own 
 sake at all, but as a part of an attempt to ascertain our 
 national wealth. The same purpose to a large extent 
 
4IO American Economic Association. 
 
 prevailed in the eleventh census, although large sections 
 were added which dealt with public finance merely for 
 its own sake. It is now time that a new point of view 
 should be chosen. The investigation should no longer 
 be one into assessment and taxation, in which taxation 
 is simply an after-thought and the assessment the prime 
 object of research. We should have an investigation 
 into taxation for its own sake ; assessment will then fall 
 into its proper place as a subordinate part of taxation. 
 So far as the assessment throws any light upon valua- 
 tion or wealth it can still be used. But as was shown 
 in the first part of tliis review the light obtained from 
 the assessment upon the true wealth of the country is 
 very small. 
 
 The proper aim of the second part should be to ascertain 
 the amoimt and character of the public revenues and ex- 
 penses. This aim is of sufficient importance to justify its 
 separate treatment. All sources of revenue should be 
 given equal attention. Tlie importance of the general 
 property tax and with it of the assessment of property is 
 gradually declining. That of otiier sources of revenue 
 is increasing. Unfortunately we have no statistics of 
 local taxation more recent than those of the census of 
 1890. But we have some light upon the development 
 of commonwealth taxation, and it is fair to assume that 
 local taxation will show the same general tendencies, 
 although not to the same extent. In 1890, about one 
 fourth of the revenues of the states was raised by means 
 other than the general property tax. In 1900 the pro- 
 portion so raised will be considerably greater. Accord- 
 ing to an investigation made by Dr. E. D. Durand for 
 the New York State Library' covering commonwealth 
 
 ^See Library Bulletin — Legislation, No. 8, March, 1897 ; State 
 Finance Statistics, 1890 and 1895. 
 
Valuation and Taxation. 411 
 
 revenues and expenditures, the receipts from the gen- 
 eral property tax by the commonwealth alone were 
 about the same in 1895 ^^ they were in 1890, while the 
 receipts from other sources, or from special forms and 
 applications of the general property tax, having practi- 
 cally the same significance as new taxes, increased 
 about 25 per cent. That is, the entire increase in the 
 revenues of the states was from sources other than the 
 general property tax. These new sources of revenue 
 should be more fully treated as their importance grows. 
 The eleventh census took cognizance of all sources 
 and forms of revenue, so that this suggestion involves 
 no fundamental change in the plan of the census. It 
 merely calls for more emphasis on certain parts and a 
 slig-ht rearrang-ement of the items so as to show the rela- 
 five importance of the different parts more accurateh'. 
 
 V. APPENDIX. 
 
 In the foregoing discussion several references have 
 been made to the use by the eleventh census of inad- 
 missible comparisons. To make the criticism more 
 concise, it is in order to append a list of the tables which 
 seem to offend, with the reasons for the criticism in each 
 case. The list contains only the general tables. Many 
 detailed statements expanding these tables are, as a 
 matter of course, open to the same criticisms. 
 
 (i) The table in the text, page 9, first part. True 
 valuation for each census year 1850 to 1890, inclusive : 
 total, per capita, and increase per cent. 
 
 The comparison here drawn is inadmissible because 
 the true valuation is of different things in each census ; 
 that is of different categories of wealth. Furthermore, 
 the estimates were made l)v different methods each time, 
 
412 American Econoinic Association. 
 
 so that the term true value has a different meaning in 
 each case. 
 
 (2) Table 3, page 14. "Comparative summary of the 
 true valuation of real and personal property, total and 
 per capita, by states and territories (exclusive of 
 Alaska) : 1850 to 1890." 
 
 This table gives again tlie comparison just criticized 
 and is open to the same objection. 
 
 (3) Table 5, page 16. "True valuation of real and 
 personal property, arranged in order of amount ; per 
 capita valuation, per cent of true valuation of real estate 
 and improvements of total valuation, assessed valuation 
 of real and personal property taxed, and per cent of 
 assessed valuation of true valuation, by states and terri- 
 tories (exclusive of Alaska) : 1890. " 
 
 The criticism here affects the column headed " per 
 cent of assessed valuation of real and personal property 
 taxed of true valuation." This column purports to give 
 the rate of underassessments and evasion. If that is 
 not what it was inserted for, it is meaningless and use- 
 less. But as a matter of fact it gives something very 
 different and totally illogical. The comparison is 
 actually between the assessed value of property taxed 
 and the true value of all property taxable and untax- 
 able, assessed and unassessed. It tells us neither the 
 rate of underassessment, nor the percentage of evasion, 
 nor the percentage of property exempt. The quantities 
 dealt with have an entirely different quality in each 
 state ; or, in other words, the intention of the terms 
 used varies from state to state so that comparisons are 
 absolutely impossible. 
 
 (4) Table i, page 59. " Summary of the total and per 
 capita assessed valuations of real and personal property 
 
Valuation and Taxation. 413 
 
 taxed, by states and territories (exclusive of Alaska, 
 Oklahoma, and Indian territor)') : 1850 to 1890. " 
 
 Also the second part of the table in the text, page 9, 
 relating to the assessed valuation of real and personal 
 property taxed, showing the total, the per capita and 
 the increase per cent for each census : 1850 to 1890. 
 
 The assumption made in the text (see page 11 ), and 
 carried out in these tables, that the increase in the 
 assessed valuation of real and personal property taxed 
 shows an increase in wealth is naive in the extreme. 
 An increase in the assessed valuation of property, total 
 or per capita, may mean any one of several things be- 
 sides an increase in wealth. It may mean, for example, 
 that the rate of assessment has been raised, or that prop- 
 erty which evaded taxes has been reached. The assess- 
 ment may remain stationary or increase while the 
 amount of wealth decreases. Whatever may be the law 
 or the assumed practice the fact remains that the assessed 
 value is a more or less arbitrary value placed upon certain 
 kinds of property for purposes of taxation. Its increase 
 or decrease year by year has no relation to the true 
 value. It is not unusual for a state board of equaliza- 
 tion to raise the assessment of a state or of a large part 
 of a state from 5 per cent to 20 per cent in a single 
 year. A revision of the tax law of California. in 1872 
 more than doubled the assessment in a single year. It 
 would be hard to prove that the wealth of the state 
 doubled in that one year. 
 
 The increase or decrease in the assessed valuation has 
 a bearing on taxation. It has nothing directly to do 
 with wealth. 
 
 (5) Table 3, page 61. " Summary of the total and per 
 capita ad valorem taxation and the rate per $100 on the 
 total assessed valuation, by states and territories (exclus- 
 
414 American Econoinic Association. 
 
 ive of Alaska, Oklahoma, and Indian territory) : i860 
 to 1890. " 
 
 Without proper reference to the other sources of 
 revenue the increase or decrease in ad valorem taxation 
 per capita has little significance. 
 
 The charts and maps displaying these comparisons 
 are open to the same criticisms. 
 
 Carl C. Plehn. 
 
 University of California. 
 
Suggestions in Regard to the Statistics of Municipal Finance 
 in the Census of 1900. 
 
 The natural starting point of this discussion is the 
 municipal finance statistics of the eleventh census. 
 These statistics are inchided in two volumes on Wealth, 
 Debt, and Taxation, and are divided into three general 
 groups as follows : 
 
 T. Statistics of indebtedness. (Pt. I.) 
 
 2. Statistics of assessed valuation and ad valorem 
 taxation. (Pt. II.) 
 
 3. Statistics of receipts and expenditures. (Pt. II.) 
 We shall first make certain suggestions relative to the 
 
 general scheme of presentation as a whole and shall then 
 take up each of the three parts separately. In doing 
 this it will contribute to clearness and completeness of 
 presentation to embody suggestions in the form of 
 schedules,' the use of which, it is believed, would yield 
 the desired results. They should be regarded mereh' as 
 suggestions subject to alterations in detail as experience 
 in carrying out the work may show to be desirable. 
 Systems of municipal finance are so diverse that it 
 would be impossible to determine beforehand in detail 
 the most desirable schedules. This can be done only 
 with all the facts at hand. It is believed, however, that 
 these schedules in their main principles of classification, 
 are practicable and would yield valuable results. 
 
 SUMMARY OF PRINCIPAL SUGGESTIONS. 
 
 I. Treat the different branches of municipal finance 
 (debt, valuation, taxation, revenue, expenditure) together, 
 thus presenting a view of the subject as a whole. 
 
 'Appendices I-III, pages 455, ff. 
 
4i6 American Economic Association. 
 
 2. Treat separately the different sorts of municipali- 
 ties, laying special emphasis on cities, and, among cities, 
 on the larger cities. 
 
 3. Divide cities into several groups on the basis of 
 population and combine with this classification a classi- 
 fication according to states and groups of states. 
 
 4. In order to save space and expense give, in the 
 case of the smaller cities and other municipalities, only 
 the combined figures for each population group within 
 each state. 
 
 5. Treat receipts and expenditures, of cities especially,, 
 in greater detail and with a better grouping of items 
 than was done in the eleventh census, distinguishing ex- 
 penditures for operation and maintenance from expend- 
 itures for additions to real estate and equipment. 
 
 6. In combining the figures for states, counties, and 
 municipalities, give the per capita as well as the act- 
 ual figures and show what percentage of the population 
 of the state is included in each group of municipalities 
 for which figures are given. 
 
 GENERAL SUGGESTIONS. 
 
 I. The first criticism of the eleventh census that sug- 
 gests itself is that it contains no presentation of the sta- 
 tistics of municipal finance as a whole. In presenting 
 the finance statistics of the various political and admin- 
 istrative divisions of the country there are possible two 
 principles of classification which we may term the finan- 
 cial and the political or administrative. According to 
 the former our primary classification rests on the dis- 
 tinction between classes of financial phenomena : debt, 
 valuation and taxation, revenue and expenditure. The 
 
Municipal Finance in the Twelfth Census. 417 
 
 facts in regard to each political and administrative 
 division are separated and grouped, with like facts col- 
 lected from other political and administrative divisions, 
 under the general class to which they belong. In this 
 way we obtain a view of public indebtedness as a whole, 
 of valuation and taxation as a whole, and of revenue 
 and expenditure as a whole, but not of the financial sys- 
 tems and conditions of states, counties, cities, etc. Our 
 knowledge of these comes piecemeal and not as a whole. 
 If the second of the two possible methods be adopted, 
 the primary distinction is that between the different 
 sorts of political and administrative bodies. The main 
 divisions would then be statistics of state finance, statis- 
 tics of county finance, statistics of municipal finance, 
 etc. The facts, to whatever division of finance they 
 belong, would then be grouped primarily according to 
 the sort of political or administrative division in con- 
 nection with which they occur. We should then have 
 a view of the finances of states, counties, etc., but not of 
 public indebtedness, etc., for the country as a whole. 
 It cannot be said that one of these methods of classifica- 
 tion is more correct than the other. It is not a question 
 of correctness, but of which method is calculated to 
 throw more light on questions of public finance in the 
 forms in which they commonly present themselves and 
 are studied. The census has adopted the financial prin- 
 ciple of classification and in so doing, it has, I believe, 
 made an error of judgment. We are interested not so 
 much in the study of public indebtedness, of valuation 
 and taxation, of public revenue and expenditure, as we 
 are in the financial systems and conditions of our states, 
 counties and cities. The different parts of the financial 
 
4i8 American Economic Association. 
 
 system of a state or a city have a bearing upon each 
 other, a unity, the significance of which is lost when 
 these parts are separately treated. I would suggest, 
 therefore, the great importance of presenting the statis- 
 tics of municipal finance as a whole, and, in general, 
 although the suggestion falls outside the scope of this 
 report, that the primary classification of finance statis- 
 tics be on the basis of political and administrative divi- 
 sions. 
 
 It is true that the question between the two principles 
 of classification is largely one of emphasis. Whichever 
 principle is adopted as primary, full summaries in accord- 
 ance with the other should be presented. If the eleventh 
 census had done this, there would perhaps be no ground 
 for criticism ; but the only attempt to present the main 
 facts of municipal finance as a whole is contained in a 
 single table' and is only partial in character, containing 
 no statement of revenue and expenditure. The table 
 referred to presents the figures for each municipality 
 having a population of 4,000 or over in 1890, the group- 
 ing being by states with the order under each state 
 alphabetical. 
 
 The figures for revenue and expenditure are else- 
 where^ given for each municipality of 4,000 or over, and 
 there is no apparent reason why a summary of these 
 figures should not have been incorporated in the table 
 in question and its value thereby greatly increased. A 
 schedule which it is believed would present a satisfactory 
 summary of the finances of municipalities is suggested 
 in appendix 1.=" The terms employed with reference to 
 receipts and expenditures are taken from the tables 
 
 ' Eleventli Census. Wealth, Debt and Taxation, 2 : 376-403. 
 = Idem, 2 : 558-599. 
 'See below, p. 455. 
 
Municipal Finance i?t the Twelfth Census. 419 
 
 showing the same facts in detail and should be inter- 
 preted in the light of those tables.' 
 
 The schedule proposed invoh'es much more than the 
 mere addition of a summary of receipts and expenditures 
 to the schedule employed in the eleventh census, but the 
 facts and comparisons called for are not more detailed 
 than is necessary to fulfil the purpose of such a sum- 
 mary. This should be, not merely to present and relate 
 to each other the main facts of municipal finance at the 
 census date, but also to relate these facts to similar facts 
 of earlier periods and thereby furnish the data for 
 observing both the existing condition and the tenden- 
 cies at work in the development of municipal finance. 
 
 2. In order to get the best results it will be necessary 
 to distinguish and treat separately the different sorts of 
 administrative bodies hitherto included in the census 
 under the head "municipality." The use of this term 
 in the census varies somewhat in different portions of 
 the work, but in all cases it is made to include adminis- 
 trative bodies very unlike in character.^ 
 
 'Appendix III, p. 457. 
 
 ' ' ' The statistics of municipal indebtedness embrace the amount of 
 indebtedness of every city, village, borough, town, township, fire, 
 water, or irrigation district, precinct, and plantation in the United 
 States, being, as far as known to this office, all the political divisions 
 of the state less than county having power to contract debt, except 
 the school district, and the poor district of Pennsylvania." Wealth, 
 Debt and Taxation, i : 75. 
 
 "The term 'municipality,' as used in these tables, includes cities, 
 townships, towns, villages, boroughs, and all other incorporated 
 divisions of a county, exclusive of school, irrigation, and fire dis- 
 tricts." Idem, 2 : loi. 
 
 No definition of "municipality" is given in connection with the 
 statistics of receipts and expenditures, but an examination of the 
 tables will show that it includes only cities, towns, villages and 
 boroughs. Apparently, however, when practicable, the accounts of 
 administrative bodies having special functions and doing their work 
 within the boundaries of the city or corresponding division are in- 
 cluded in the accounts of the latter. This at least would seem to be a 
 
420 American Economic Association. 
 
 This grouping of dissimilar objects is unfortunate. 
 The same reason which leads to the separate treatment 
 of the iinances of state, county and municipality should 
 lead us if possible to distinguish, at least, between the 
 city and the unlike administrative bodies with which it 
 is grouped in the census. A city, as distinguished from 
 other municipal bodies, deals with the interests of a com- 
 pact community and performs a great \'ariety of functions, 
 many of which are the direct outgrowth of the density 
 of population in the community which it serves. The 
 same conditions which determine its character as an or- 
 ganization determine also the character of its expenses, 
 the sources of revenue which it controls, and hence its 
 financial system. It is certainly desirable to separate 
 so far as possible the statistics dealing with the finan- 
 cial systems of such bodies from the statistics dealing 
 with the financial systems of towns and similar adminis- 
 trative districts, the organization and financial systems 
 of which are determined by the needs of scattered popu- 
 lations living under conditions essentially different from 
 those of the city community. It would be a distinct 
 gain if the municipal finance statistics of the twelfth 
 census should treat separately : i. cities ; 2. towns, 
 townships, villages and boroughs ; 3. minor administra- 
 tive divisions other than, and not included in, those 
 mentioned under i and 2. The more important classes 
 among the divisions included under 3, viz, school, poor, 
 fire, irrigation districts, etc., should be separately noted. 
 
 fair inference from the statement {Idem, 2 : 407) : "In municipalities 
 having less than 50,000 population the expenditures for schools not 
 under immediate municipal direction are not included, the district 
 having charge of such expenditures being independent and frequently 
 not co-extensive with any municipality." 
 
 Whatever may be thought of any one of the above uses of the term, 
 there can be no doubt that the use of the term in different senses iri 
 the different branches of the work is a distinct disadvantage. 
 
Municipdil Finance in the Twelfth Census. 421 
 
 It must be admitted that it is a matter of some dif35culty 
 always to distinguish between the city and other muni- 
 cipal bodies. We must be guided by facts, not names. 
 We are concerned not so much with the study of " cities " 
 as of administrative bodies performing city functions. 
 Thus, if within the area organized as a city, there exist 
 other administrative bodies such as a town, school dis- 
 trict, fire district or borough, having boundaries practic- 
 ally conterminous with those of the city and performing 
 functions commonly performed by a city government, 
 their finances may be properly included with those of 
 the city.^ 
 
 If a compact community, in which have developed the 
 needs characteristic of the city, still retains its primi- 
 tive form of organization as a town on which, perhaps, 
 have been imposed special forms of organization to 
 meet new needs as they arose, such a town or group of 
 administrative bodies may properly be treated as a city, 
 provided tliat, where a number of organizations exist 
 within the same territory, they are so nearly conterminous 
 as to make it practicable to combine their financial state- 
 ments. Tlie line between cities and other administra- 
 tive divisions is not, therefore, perfectly clear. The 
 only rule is to accept the form of organization as prima 
 facie the determining factor, admitting exceptions as oc- 
 casion seems to require. 
 
 The practice of the tenth census in regard to group- 
 ing the accounts of different administrative divisions, 
 
 'No exception should be made in the case of the school district. 
 There is, of course, no objection to a separate presentation of the fi- 
 nances of the public school system, but the management of the schools 
 in many parts of the country is in the hands of the cities and towns 
 and even when this is not the case the expenditures for schools, and 
 the indebtedness incurred on account of them, are a part of the ex- 
 penditures and indebtedness of the city and town communities in 
 which the schools are situated. 
 
422 American Economic Association. 
 
 serving the same city community, in the tables of re- 
 ceipts and expenditures of cities with a population of 
 7,500 or more, was much more clearly stated, and appa- 
 rently more nearly in accord with the principle above 
 sue2;ested, than was the case in the eleventh census. 
 The explanatory notes, preceding the tables of receipts 
 and expenditures and showing the practice followed with 
 reference to each state, which we find in the tenth cen- 
 sus,' are wholly lacking in the eleventh. The determi- 
 nation of the exceptions must be to some extent a mat- 
 ter of judgment, and the results consequently only ap- 
 proximate, but it is believed that the distinction could 
 be made sufficiently accurate to be of great value. 
 Whatever the decision reached it should hold good for 
 all branches of the statistics presented, otherwise the re- 
 sults reached in these different branches cannot be 
 brought into relation with each other. 
 
 3. Comparatively little attempt at grouping is made 
 in the municipal finance statistics of the eleventh cen- 
 sus. In the table showing municipal debt in detail''^ 
 municipalities are grouped geographically under the 
 states and counties in which they are situated, but there 
 is no grouping according to population. In the table 
 showing debt less sinking fund and population for 1880 
 and 1890,' separate totals are given for places with a 
 population of 4,000 or over, and places with a popula- 
 tion less than 4,000, grouped according to states, accord- 
 ing to the geographical groups of states, and for the 
 country as a whole. In the tables^ showing the purposes 
 of issue, the rates of interest and the dates of maturity 
 
 ^ Tenth Census, 7 ; 215-218. 
 
 2 Eleventh Census. Wealth, Debt and Taxation, i : 329-534. 
 
 ' Idem, 535-554. 
 
 <- Idem, 556-851. 
 
Municipal Finance in the Twelfth Census. 423 
 
 of bonds, the grouping is merely geographical, by states 
 and counties, the figures for each place with a popula- 
 tion of 4,000 or over being separately given. In the 
 table showing principal of debt, annual interest charge, 
 average rate of interest, and interest charge per capita,' 
 distinction is again made between places with 4,000 or 
 more population and those with less, separate totals for 
 the two classes being given for the country as a whole, 
 for the great geographical groups of states, and for each 
 state separately. 
 
 In the tables dealing with assessed valuation and ad 
 valorem taxation,^ no attempt is made at other than geo- 
 graphical classification by states and counties. 
 
 In the tables dealing with receipts and expenditures^ 
 distinction is made between places with 50,000 or more 
 population, and those with 4,000 but less than 50,000. 
 The cities of 50,000 and over are arranged in the order 
 of population ; those with a population of 4,000—50,000 
 are arranged alphabetically under the states in which 
 they are situated. Classification on the basis of popu- 
 lation might advantageously be carried much farther- 
 The size of a city exercises a strong influence on its 
 finances and there is no way in which the character and 
 extent of this influence can be indicated other than by 
 classifying cities on the basis of population. The fol- 
 lowing classification would not be too minute for this 
 purpose : 
 
 1. Cities with population of 350,000 or over. 
 
 2. Cities with a population of 100.000 but less than 
 250,000. 
 
 3. Cities with a population of 50,000 but less than 
 
 100,000. 
 
 1 Idem, 856-861. 
 
 ^ Idem, 2 : 102-373. 
 
 3 Idem, 410-411, 420-451, 554-557, and 560-599- 
 
424 American Economic Association. 
 
 4. Cities with a population of 25,000 but less than 
 50,000. 
 
 5. Cities with a population of 10,000 but less than 
 25,000. 
 
 6. Cities with a population of less than 10,000. 
 
 Within each of these classes the geographical group- 
 ing by states and groups of states should be preserved 
 in order to bring out the influence exercised both by 
 geographical situation and administrative organization. 
 It does not, however, seem advisable to follow the prac- 
 tice of the eleventh census in many of its tables, and 
 carry the geographical classification to the extent of 
 grouping the cities within each state by counties. To 
 do so would be practically to destroy the value of the 
 classification by population witliout any compensating 
 advantage. 
 
 Whether the primary classification should be on the 
 basis of population or geographical situation is not a 
 matter of the first importance. It is important that the 
 two principles should be combined and that the scheme 
 of classification followed should be uniform throughout 
 all branches of the statistics presented. 
 
 The financial sj^stems and condition of the larger 
 cities, present problems of the first importance and 
 should be treated in much greater detail than would 
 be practicable for all cities. This detailed treatment 
 should certainly extend to all cities with a popula- 
 tion of 100,000 or over and if possible to those with a 
 population of 50,000 or over. In the case of the smaller 
 cities not only would the more limited character of their 
 functions involve a less detailed treatment but such 
 cities might advantageously be grouped (only the figures 
 for the group as a whole being given) and much space 
 
Municipal Finance in the Twelfth Census. 425 
 
 thereby saved for the presentation of more important 
 
 matter. 
 
 4. While statistics of municipal finance properly 
 
 classified throw much light on the character and extent 
 
 of municipal functions and the differences which exist 
 
 in this respect between municipalities differing in size 
 
 and belonging to different political systems, it is equally 
 
 true that it is essential to the formation of a sound 
 
 judgment in regard to the finances of cities, and still 
 
 more to an intelligent comparison between the finances 
 
 of cities belonging to different political systems, that we 
 
 have a knowledge of the powers and functions assigned 
 
 to the cities in question, and of the role which they 
 
 play in the political and financial systems of which they 
 
 form a part. This knowledge can be furnished only by 
 
 explanatory text. Such explanatorj- matter is furnished 
 
 in both the tenth and eleventh censuses, in connection 
 
 with the statistics of debt, valuation and taxation, but 
 
 in neither census is there adequate explanatory matter 
 
 in connection with the receipts and expenditures of 
 
 cities, making clear their relation to the receipts and 
 
 expenditures of other minor divisions and the state 
 
 itself. 
 
 II. 
 
 STATISTICS OF INDEBTEDNESS. 
 
 Presentation in the eleventh census. — The figures of 
 municipal indebtedness in the eleventh census are given 
 in the following tables, omi.ssion made of certain tables 
 of summaries. 
 
 I. A detailed statement by states and counties,' show- 
 ing for each municipality, total debt less sinking fund 
 (1880, 1890), debt of 1890 in detail (bonded, floating, 
 
 ' Wealth, Debt and Taxation, i : 330-534. 
 
426 American Economic Association. 
 
 sinking fund), population (1880, 1890) and debt less 
 sinking fund per capita, (1880, 1890). 
 
 2. " Total and per capita indebtedness of municipali- 
 ties having 4,000 or more population" by states.' 
 
 3. " Purpose of issue, rate of interest, and date of 
 maturit)' of bonds of the states, counties, and munici- 
 palities of 4,000 or more population outstanding in 
 1890."' 
 
 4. " Statement showing the national, state, and classes 
 of the local bonded debt of the United States, and the 
 amount, average interest rate, and per capita interest 
 charged thereon for 1890." ' In this table municipali- 
 ties are not treated simgle, but totals, by states and 
 groups of states, are given, for municipalities with 4000 
 or more population and for those with less than 4000. 
 
 Suggestions. — In addition to the general suggestions 
 already made, namely, the division of municipalities into 
 I, cities ; 2, towns, townships, villages, and boroughs ; 
 3, other minor administrative bodies ; and the more 
 extended classification of cities on the basis of popu- 
 lation, it is believed that the following changes and 
 additions would constitute real improvements : 
 
 I. Omit tables described under i, 2 and 4 above. 
 Those portions described under i and 2, which make 
 comparisons between successive census years have 
 already been provided for in Appendix I. Those por- 
 tions dealing with the debt of 1900 in detail are pro- 
 vided for in the schedule proposed under 3 b, below. 
 Those portions described under 4 above, which show 
 principal of bonded debt, interest charge and average 
 
 1 Idem, I : 536-554- 
 ^ Idem, I : 562-851. 
 ^ Idem, I : 857-861. 
 
Municipal Finance in the Twelfth Census. 427 
 
 Tate of interest are provided for in the suggestions made 
 under 3 below and the per capita interest charge is 
 .shown in the schedule proposed in Appendix I. 
 
 2. Add to the table described under 3 above, one 
 showing the dates of issue of the debt outstanding in 
 1900. Such a table was included in the Tenth Census.' 
 It affords valuable information and there is no apparent 
 reason why it should have been omitted in 1890. 
 
 In that portion of the table dealing with " purpose of 
 issue " some clianges might advantageously be made. 
 ^' Cemeteries," the aggregate debt incurred on account 
 of which is returned as $196,250 might be omitted. 
 Rivers and harbors, wharves, and canals, might be 
 stated separately. Issues in aid of railroads might be 
 distinguished from issues in aid of other private indus- 
 trial enterprises. " Streets " might be subdivided into 
 " acquisition of land," " opening and construction," 
 ^'maintenance and repair." Gas works, electric light 
 .and power works, conduits, and other industrial enter- 
 prises which might prove to be of sufficient importance 
 should be added. The item "refunding old debt" 
 should be reduced as much as possible by distributing it 
 under otlier headings, in so far as it is possible to obtain 
 the requisite knowledge of the character of the debt 
 refunded. It is not evident how far this attempt was 
 made in the eleventh census but the amount entered 
 under this head,' $291,095,556 out of a total bonded 
 debt of 11,135,794,064, is so large as seriously to di- 
 minish the value of the table. While these changes 
 would considerably increase the value of the table, they 
 would not prevent the making of comparisons with the 
 figures for 1890 and 1880. It would be advantageous 
 
 'Tenth Census, 7 : 718-753. 
 HVealth, Debt, and Taxation, i : 557. 
 
428 America7i Economic Association. 
 
 also to state in connection with the debt issued for each 
 purpose what percentage it constitutes of the total issue. 
 
 To that portion of the table showing the amount of 
 debt issued at various rates of interest should be added 
 columns showing total interest charge and average rate 
 of interest. 
 
 There should also be added tables of summaries 
 showing, at least for the different classes of cities, the 
 figures for 1900 in comparison with those for 1880 and 
 1890. 
 
 3. Add tables showing for the larger cities : 
 
 a. the debt movement during intercensal years. 
 
 b. a comparison for the census year between 
 
 debt and productive assets. 
 Schedules I and II, appendix II, are suggested 
 
 as adequate for these purposes. 
 It certainly shows the want of a sense of proportion 
 in the census that the debts of the larger cities are 
 treated in much less detail than are the debts of the 
 states, although the latter are much less in amount than 
 the former, are diminishing rather than increasing, and 
 present no problems equal in importance to the problems 
 connected with the enormous and increasing indebted- 
 ness of our great cities.' 
 
 ' The bonded debt of the states in 1890 aggregated 1224,175,044. The 
 aggregate bonded debt of New York, Philadelphia, Chicago, Brook- 
 lyn, Baltimore and Boston exceeded the debt of the states by 
 $120,093,211. The census of 1890 {Mem, i : 147-243) not only gives, 
 for the states both classes of facts called for above under "a" and 
 " b " and extends the table showing cash and productive assets so as 
 to cover the intercensal j-ears, but [Idem, i: 81-145) provides a full 
 explanatory text describing both the character of the debt and various, 
 productive funds. 
 
M2i7iicipal Finance in the Twelfth Cejistis. 429 
 
 III. 
 ASSESSED VALUATION AND AD VALOREM TAXATION. 
 
 The figures for municipalities are given b)' states and 
 counties,' the municipalities being arranged alphabeti- 
 cally under the counties in which they are situated. 
 The figures for each state are preceded by text giving 
 an account of methods of assessing and levying taxes 
 in the slate. 
 
 The items of this tabulation so far as concerned with 
 cities are provided for in the summary table suggested 
 in Appendix I. In its place it would be valuable to 
 show the details of assessment so far as possible ; for 
 real estate, to distinguisli the assessment on land from 
 the a.ssessnient on improvements ; for personal property, 
 to show separately assessments on machiner}-, stock in 
 trade, securities of corporations, mortgages and such 
 other forms of personal property as the assessment lists 
 when examined might show to be of sufficient import- 
 ance. It is impossible, however, to propose any schedule 
 covering these facts until an examination of assessment 
 lists shall show in regard to what sorts of property 
 separate statements can be made for a sufficient number 
 of cities to justify the attempt. 
 
 IV. 
 
 REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE. 
 
 General considerations. — There can be no doubt that 
 this branch of finance statistics presents difficulties much 
 greater than those of the branches above considered. 
 Before taking up the schedules in detail attention should 
 be called to the following general considerations which 
 
 ^ Idem, 2 : 103-373. 
 
430 America7i Economic Association. 
 
 should influence both the arrangement and the interpre- 
 tation of the schedules. 
 
 1. In no branch of municipal finance statistics is there 
 greater need of an introductory text showing the part 
 assigned to municipalities in the administrative systeni 
 of the state. 
 
 2. Tlie figures should represent so far as possible city^ 
 revenue and expenditure only, excluding those items of 
 revenue and expenditure whicli are found in tlie muni- 
 cipal accounts only because the city acts as the agent of 
 otlier political and administrative bodies in the collec- 
 tion and expenditure of revenue. When the city col- 
 lects the state taxes along with its own, tlie method of 
 treatment is simply to deduct such items from both 
 sides of the account. But when the state pays the city 
 for caring in its institutions for certain inmates, or 
 makes a grant for the support of some branch of city 
 work, the proper course is not quite so clear. Such pay- 
 ments and grants are in a sense a portion of the city's 
 revenue, and their expenditure a portion of the city's 
 expenditure, but they constitute also a portion of the 
 revenue and expenditure of the state and evidently can 
 not be counted for botli city and state when we consider 
 the finances of the state and city as portions of a single 
 whole. Probably the best way is to include such items 
 in the figures for the city but to state them separately 
 so that they may be easily deducted when the purpose- 
 in view renders it necessary. 
 
 3. The figures should represent real revenue and ex- 
 penditure as distinguished from that which is merely 
 nominal. Thus revenue and expenditure growing out 
 of the sale or purchase of securities incident to changes. 
 
 ' The term " city " is used for brevity. What is said of cities would, 
 be true of other municipalities also. 
 
Municipal Finance in the Twelfth Census. 431 
 
 in the investment of funds form no part of the revenue 
 and expenditure for municipal purposes. 
 
 Many cities keep their accounts in the form of 
 " funds," transfers between which appear as revenue or 
 expenditure in the accounts of the separate funds, and 
 as both revenue and expenditure in the accounts for the 
 city as a whole, when these are made up by simply add- 
 ing together the accounts of the different funds. Such 
 ■nominal revenue and expenditure should be carefully 
 excluded. To accomplish this we must treat all revenue 
 and expenditure as going into and out from a single 
 treasury. All balances on hand at the beginning or 
 end of the year, to whatever fund credited, should be 
 treated as portions of the balance in the general treasury ; 
 all payments from funds, except transfers to other funds 
 or to the general treasury (which transfers should be 
 omitted), should be treated as payments from the gene- 
 ral treasury ; and all revenue credited to such funds, ex- 
 cept transfers from other funds or from the general 
 treasury (which transfers should be omitted), should be 
 treated as revenue received by the general treasury. 
 In this way alone can we obtain a true statement of 
 actual revenue and expenditure. While in the case of 
 " funds," it is comparatively easy to follow out this 
 principle, there are somewhat analogous cases which 
 present serious difficulties. Such a case arises when 
 one department renders services or supplies materials 
 like water or lights to other departments of the city 
 government. These services may be rendered free of 
 charge or charged to the department using them. In 
 the latter case the amount so charged will appear in 
 both the revenue and the expenditure of the city and 
 will correspondingly increase its budget. Neither the 
 cla.ssification which includes nor that which excludes 
 
432 American Economic Association. 
 
 such items can be said to be for all purposes the more 
 correct ; one will be more valuable for some purposes, 
 the other for other purposes. Here again, therefore, the 
 best way is not to exclude such items but so to state 
 them that they may be distinguished, and hence may 
 be included or excluded according to the requirements 
 of the special purpose in view. 
 
 What has been said concerning " funds " applies to 
 the sinking fund. Payments from the city treasury to 
 the sinking fund are not expenditures but additions to 
 the city's reserve, while payments from the sinking fund 
 to the treasury are not portions of the city's revenue but 
 drafts on its reserve. On the other hand payments from 
 the sinking fund for the redemption of debt are a part 
 of the city's expenditure, and the interest on the se- 
 curities held in the sinking fund a part of the city's 
 revenue. 
 
 For practical reasons, however, it seems best in this 
 case to make an exception to the general principle and 
 to treat the sinking fund as a separate account. The 
 reasons for this may be stated as follows : 
 
 a. To state first a negative reason : the disadvantages 
 (confusion and duplication) which would follow a gen- 
 eral recognition of separate " funds " would not exist 
 when we recognize only one such fund, since its relation 
 to the accounts of the general treasury can be so stated 
 as to make the facts perfectly clear. 
 
 b. A positive reason may be found in the fact that the 
 practice of keeping such funds is practically universal 
 in municipal finance, and the part which they play is so 
 important that it is desirable to bring out clearly their 
 relation as separate funds to the general finances of the 
 city. So accustomed, indeed, have we become to think- 
 ing of the sinking fund as something separate from the 
 
Municipal Finance in the Twelfth Census. 433 
 
 general treasury that any attempt to merge the accounts 
 of the two would probably lead to confusion rather than 
 clearness. 
 
 4. Receipts precisely alike in character are differently 
 designated in different cities and expenditures precisely 
 alike in character are assigned to different departments. 
 Thus what is termed in one city a fee may be termed 
 in another city a license, a tax, or an assessment. The 
 cleaning of the streets or the removal of garbage may be 
 in the hands of the street department, of the health de- 
 partment, of a separate department organized for the 
 purpose, or divided between different departments. 
 Great care should be taken to bring under the same 
 heading all items alike in character, however they may 
 be classified or designated in the accounts of the various 
 cities.' 
 
 5. It is not possible to devise any single form of classi- 
 fication which may be termed correct in the sense of be- 
 ing the best for all purposes. Some classifications are 
 best for some, others for other purposes. It would not 
 be possible for the census to present all desirable forms 
 of classification. It should, however, make so clear the 
 content of the terms in the classification adopted, and 
 present the facts in such detail that it will be possible 
 to re-classify them in any way necessary to tlirow light 
 on any question of municipal finance. In addition to its 
 main classification, it should present only such re-classi- 
 fications of its figures as will throw light upon certain 
 facts of fundamental importance and general interest, 
 and not involve an unreasonable expenditure of space 
 
 ' Thus it is best to include under the heading franchise taxes all 
 payments of the nature of special taxes made by companies in the en- 
 joyment of public franchises, by whatever name such payments may 
 be known. 
 28 
 
434 American Economic Association. 
 
 and money. Correct presentation of the facts in detail 
 in such a way as to make them available for any purpose 
 should be the main object of the census. 
 
 6. Passing from these general considerations to the 
 principles applicable to revenue as distinct from expen- 
 diture and vice versa, it is evident that the items of rev- 
 enue should be classified according to the sources from 
 which they are derived. We must distinguish between 
 revenue from regular and constant sources, and revenue 
 from sources necessarily irregular and limited, such as 
 loans, sales or gifts. In the case of revenue from regu- 
 lar sources, we should distinguish between revenue which 
 comes from the exercise of the taxing power, revenue 
 which is incidental to the administrative activity of the 
 city, and revenue which comes from the exercise of the 
 penal power, from productive property, from quasi- 
 private enterprises carried on by the city, or from pay- 
 ments to the city by other political and administrative 
 bodies. In the case of revenue derived from taxation 
 we should distinguish that which is assessed on citizens 
 generally according to some estimate of their financial 
 ability from that which is levied upon some particular 
 form of business or property, or that which is assessed 
 according to benefits received from some particular form 
 of expenditure, or on account of the expense involved 
 in some particular form of administrative oversight. It 
 would probably not be possible to conform the classifica- 
 tion of revenues strictly to the scheme required by the 
 principles of finance, even if there were general agree- 
 ment upon such a scheme among students of that science. 
 A census classification to be of practical value must take 
 into account facts of administrative and financial organi- 
 zation and practice, and the common usage of certain 
 terms in certain senses, as well as the principles of 
 
Municipal Finance in the Twelfth Census. 435 
 
 finance. It is necessary to effect a compromise between 
 these two classes of considerations endeavoring always 
 to conform as closely as possible to scientific principles- 
 7. Expenditures should be classified according to the 
 purposes for which they are made. To do this to ad- 
 vantage it is necessary to follow concurrently two dis- 
 tinct principles of classification. According to the first, 
 the determining factor is the character of the public 
 need supplied, such as schools, streets or sewers. Ac- 
 cording to the second, the determining factor is the char- 
 acter of the expenditure as regularly recurring or special 
 and exceptional. While such a distinction as the latter 
 evidently exists and should be recognized, the exact line 
 between the two kinds of expenditure is largely a matter 
 of judgment and of the purpose in view. The terms 
 usuall5' emplo3'ed to express it are " ordinary " and " ex- 
 traordinary," but these terms, far from indicating the 
 principle of classification adopted, must themselves be 
 fully explained to serve any useful purpose. Without 
 going into the discussion as to what constitutes ordinary 
 and what extraordinary expenditure, a valuable and 
 practical line of division ma}- be drawn between expen- 
 ditures for operation and maintenance (including salaries, 
 wages, supplies and repairs) and expenditures for ad- 
 ditions (including purchase of land, and purchase or con- 
 struction of buildings and plants). Figures so classified 
 for a series of years would show the average annual ex- 
 penditures for additions and would thereby afford the most 
 satisfactory basis for determining what portion of ex- 
 penditures of this sort in any year is properly to be 
 classified as ordinary and what portion as extraordinary. 
 
 The Schedules of the Tenth and Eleventh Censuses. — 
 The tables of the tenth census dealing in detail with 
 receipts and expenditures of cities are tables IV B and 
 
436 Americaji Economic Association. 
 
 IV C (7 : 234—261). The corresponding tables in the 
 eleventh census are tables 12 and 14 in Wealth, Debt 
 and Taxation, 2 : 554-557 and 560-599. The former 
 relates to cities with population of 50,000 and over ; the 
 latter to municipalities with a population of 4,000-50,000. 
 
 The tenth census was the first iu which an attempt 
 was made to show the receipts and expenditures of 
 cities. The figures are given in detail for each city 
 having a population of 7,500 or over. 
 
 From a careful comparison of these tables in the last 
 two censuses, it is evident that the census of 1890 made 
 a distinct advance over that of 1880. It shows the facts 
 in greater detail, particularly on the side of receipts, 
 and the grouping is better. The tenth census makes no 
 attempt to draw any distinction between ordinary and 
 extraordinary receipts, or to distinguish receipts which 
 belong to the city from receipts in the collection of 
 which the city acts only as agent. It does not even give 
 any figure showing total receipts exclusive of balance 
 from preceding year. In the eleventh census, on the 
 the other hand, the receipts from regular sources of rev- 
 enue and the expenditures for the work of city admin- 
 istration are grouped separately from transactions on ac- 
 count of debt, balances, and nominal items arising from 
 transfers between funds. ^ 
 
 ^Thus the only total given in the tenth census (7 : 240) for the re- 
 ceipts of New York in the table showing receipts in detail, is 
 
 $68,460,286 
 In this total are included the following items : 
 
 Cash balance from preceding year % 2,260,743 
 
 Proceeds of bonds sold 51223,752 
 
 Sinking fund 4,120,756 
 
 Temporary loans 24,857,587 
 
 136,462,838 36,462,838 
 
 Deducting this we have l3i,997,448 
 
 This figure, however, included taxes, to the amount probably of 
 
Municipal Finance in the Twelfth Cefisus. 437 
 
 Notwithstanding the advance made by the census of 
 1890, it still leaves much to be desired.^ 
 
 The first point for criticism is the lack of a satisfac- 
 tory explanatory text. In this respect indeed the 
 census of 1890 is inferior to that of 1880. A similar 
 fault is the lack of any precise definition of terms used. 
 Thus there is no explanation of the heading, " funds, in- 
 vestments, transfers and refunds," which occurs under 
 both receipts and expenditures in tables 12 and 14.^ 
 
 about $4,000,000, collected for the state, deducting which would leave in 
 round numbers $28,000,000 as the real revenue of the city, the figure 
 needed for making comparisons with other cities in which the condi- 
 tions in regard to cash balance carried, debt payment, and the issue of 
 temporary loans in anticipation of revenue are different from those in 
 New York. 
 
 That the above items were not properl}' a part of the revenue of the 
 city may be seen from the statement of the following items taken 
 from the table of expenditures (7 : 236,) : 
 
 Principal of bonded debt $ 8,273,451 
 
 Temporary loans 25,744,342 
 
 Sinking fund 286,514 
 
 The balance at the end of the year is not 
 given, but assuming that it is the same as 
 at tlie beginning 2,260,743 
 
 The total would be 136,565,050 
 
 According to the scheme followed in the eleventh census we find in 
 the table of receipts two totals : " Gross receipts including balance ", 
 $101,854,775, ^"d " Ordinary", ,$35,740,547 ; and in the taVjle of ex- 
 penditures, "Gross expenditures including balance", $101,854,775 ; 
 " Ordinary ", $37,218,857, which last is believed to include a double 
 entry of about $3,500,000. (Wealth, Debt and Taxation 2 : 554-6.) 
 
 ^The schedules of the eleventh census, although an improvement 
 on those of the tenth census, are inferior to the schedules approved 
 by the ninth Congris International de Statistique and used by Korosi 
 in his Bultetin annuel des finances des grandes villes, published tor 
 the years 1877-1 SS6. 
 
 '' 2 ; 554-57 and 560-99. 
 
 The terms, "funds," and "investments," particularly need expla- 
 nation. It is evidently not meant to include under these heads in- 
 come from funds and investments since this item is separately stated 
 under ordinary revenue. It would seem, therefore, that the terms are 
 meant to include receipts from sales of property belonging to funds 
 
438 American Econojnic Association. 
 
 The same is true of the item " funds " which occurs in 
 the heading " income from funds and investments " 
 under receipts. It is not clear, e. g., whether the sinking 
 fund is included under this head. Still another instance 
 of the lack of exact information in regard to the mean- 
 ing of the terms used is afforded by the heading " bal- 
 ance on hand beginning (end) of year." A comparison 
 of the census figures with the reports of the financial 
 officers of certain cities shows that the balances given by 
 the former considerably exceed the balances in the 
 treasury reported by the latter. The explanation appar- 
 ently is that the census figures include not only the 
 balance in the treasury but the cash balance in the hands 
 of the sinking fund commissioners. Whether or no this 
 practice is advisable, it is unusual and should be indi- 
 cated, but neither the introductory text nor the foot- 
 notes, so far as the writer has been able to discover, 
 afford any hint of it. 
 
 Turning to the form of the schedules we find in the 
 case both of receipts and expenditures the greater part 
 of the items grouped under the general heading 
 "ordinary," preceding which are a number of items 
 grouped under no general heading but included with 
 " ordinary " receipts (expenditures) under " gross re- 
 ceipts (expenditures) including balance." These last 
 named items taken together exceed, in the case both of 
 receipts and expenditures, the ordinary receipts and ex- 
 penditures, but (as explained below) neither they as a 
 
 and constituting investments, but this is not stated nor is there any- 
 thing to indicate whether receipts from sales of securities only are 
 included or from sales of productive real estate as well. Nor, again, 
 is it stated whether receipts from sales are included when the proceeds 
 are reinvested and the fund or investment kept intact, the sale being 
 merely incident to a change in the form of investment and not result- 
 ing in any addition to the revenue for the year. 
 
Municipal Finance in the Twelfth Census. 439 
 
 whole, nor the total which includes them, have any 
 significance whatever. The use of the term "ordinary" 
 implies the division of receipts and expenditures into 
 ordinary and extraordinary. Accepting this principle 
 of classification, it is clear that the items should be 
 grouped under the following general headings : 
 
 RECEIPTS. EXPENDITURES. 
 
 Balance at beginning of year. Total expenditures. 
 Total receipts during year. Ordinary. 
 
 Ordinary. Extraordinary. 
 
 Extraordinary. Balance at end of year. 
 
 Total of balance and receipts. Total of expenditures and balance. 
 
 Not onl)' does the census of 1890 give no figures 
 showing extraordinory receipts and expenditures other 
 than receipts frotn and expenditures for payment of 
 loans, but it does not show total receipts or expenditures 
 exclusive of balances at the beginning and end of the 
 year. The figures which it gives for " gross receipts 
 (expenditures) including balance " include, along with 
 these items and inextricably confused with them, a 
 mass of items, (such as taxes collected for state and 
 county in the case of receipts, transfers between ac- 
 counts and, apparently, moneys received and paid out 
 incident to a change in the investments of city funds ' ) 
 which are no part of those receipts and expenditures for 
 purposes of city administration, which are what the census 
 should show. Even on the basis of the system of classi- 
 fication adopted by the census for items other than " or- 
 dinary," there is an inconsistency between the schedules 
 for receipts and expenditures, in that, while " collections 
 
 'There is of course no objection to giving the figures for these 
 items, but they should not be included in a total intended to show 
 municipal revenue and expenditure in any form.. Revenue from loans 
 and expenditure for payment of debt, however, form important parts 
 of municipal revenue and expenditure and should be included in any 
 total intended to show their gross amounts. 
 
440 Ajnerican Economic Association. 
 
 for state or county " are separately stated under receipts, 
 the payments of these sums to the state or county are 
 not separately stated under expenditures, but are in- 
 cluded under some other heading, no indication being 
 given as to which/ 
 
 In taking up the items grouped under ordinary receipts 
 and expenditures we shall consider receipts and expendi- 
 tures separately. 
 
 Receipts. — The main criticism to which the schedule 
 is open is that it lacks sufficient detail. All sorts of 
 quasi-private undertakings are grouped together under 
 the heading "waterworks or other undertakings." It 
 is, however, certainly both desirable and practicable to 
 give separately the figures for such undertakings as water 
 works, gas works, electric light works, conduits, etc." 
 
 Special assessments for sidewalks are of sufficient im- 
 portance to demand separate statement, and in the case 
 of assessments for streets it is desirable to distinguish 
 the main purposes for which assessments are levied, 
 such as cost of land, construction, and maintenance and 
 repair. There are licenses other than liquor licenses of 
 sufficient importance, especially in the south, to be sep- 
 arately stated. The schedule contains no separate 
 
 ' Apparently Ihis item in the case of expenditures must be included 
 under "funds, investments, transfers and refunds." The only other 
 possible heading under which it could be included would be " miscel- 
 laneous," and in the case of many cities the sums entered under this 
 head are too small to cover taxes collected for state and county. 
 
 ^ In justice to the census of 1890 it should be noted that this greater 
 detail was much less important then than it is at the present lime. 
 The objection is rather to the use of the same schedule for 1900. It 
 is not certain, indeed, that it would be wise to include such items as 
 gas works, electric light works, and conduits in the general schedules 
 for 1900 ; but if they should not occur with sufiBcient frequency to jus- 
 tify including them in the general schedule, the facts regarding them 
 should be fully stated in foot-notes where they do occur. If we do 
 not distinguish them from water works we destroy the possibility of 
 getting at figures for water works as well as other enterprises. 
 
Municipal Finance in the Twelfth Censtis. 441 
 
 headings for franchise taxes or receipts from productive 
 real estate, both items of great interest, and in some 
 cases of considerable importance,^ and there is no indi- 
 cation of the headings under which these are included, 
 although it seems probable that thej' are distributed 
 among the headings, water works or other undertakings 
 (net), licenses other than liquor licenses, fees, fines, and 
 penalties, income from funds and investments, and mis- 
 cellaneous. 
 
 Not only are the figures for water works and other 
 undertakings given net, but the interest on bonds issued 
 on account of such undertakings is included in their 
 expenses.^ There can be no doubt that this procedure 
 is not only legitimate, but for certain purposes abso- 
 lutely necessary ; but it is equally certain that the 
 schedules which give the receipts and expenditures in 
 greatest detail should give all the items of revenue and 
 expenditure without regard to the fact that the city may 
 make a net profit or suffer a net loss in connection with 
 certain enterprises. These tables should furnish full 
 data, having which we can make the great variety of 
 combinations necessary to throw light on the various 
 phases of the problem of municipal finance and the 
 
 ' The importance of these items in the case of New York may be 
 seen by the following figures taken from the Comptroller's report for 
 the census year (pp. 45, 55, 58) : 
 
 Payments by street and other railway co.'s._.. % 429,476 
 
 Market rents and fees 307,460 
 
 Ferry rent 330,345 
 
 Dock and slip rent 1,482,532 
 
 Street vaults ,. 138,794 
 
 House rent 56,838 
 
 Ground rent 49i385 
 
 ^ See explanatory notes, lileventh Census. Wealth, Debt and Tax- 
 ation, 2 : 407. 
 
442 American Eco7iomic Association. 
 
 relative financial condition of cities. This cannot be 
 done by giving merely net results.' 
 
 Expenditures. ~'X:\\^ use of the term " ordinary " is 
 much more open to criticism than in its use in connec- 
 tion with receipts. Under this head all expenditures are 
 included other than for " loans (principal) " and " funds, 
 investments, transfers and refunds ;" for example, all ex- 
 penditures for addition to equipment. If a city should 
 purchase an electric lighting plant, put in a system of 
 sewerage or build a city hall, the cost according to the 
 census classification would be included under ordinary 
 expenditures. The vagueness of the terms " ordinary " 
 and " extraordinary " in connection with expenditures 
 has already been noted, but it is certainly not in accord- 
 ance with any legitimate conception of the meaning of 
 those terms to include such items as the above. 
 
 In the case of cities with a population of 50,000 or 
 over it is possible to correct this fault so far as totals are 
 concerned, the expenditure for " new buildings, works, 
 sites, and grounds " being separately given, but it is 
 stated that it was impossible to preserve the distinction 
 in the case of cities with 4,000 but less than 50,000 in- 
 habitants," and such items are grouped with the " care 
 and repair of public buildings." Even for cities with 
 50,000 or more population expenditures of this class are 
 not distributed among the different departments in con- 
 nection with which they are made. In the same way, 
 
 'Further, the "net" results as calculated in the census do not 
 afford a satisfactory basis for estimating the real financial results 
 achieved by cities in managing such enterprises, since no account is 
 taken of depreciation. It was of course impossible to allow for such 
 an item as this in the schedules of receipts and expenditures, an im- 
 possibility which goes to show the unwisdom of trying to show net 
 results in such tables. 
 
 ^ Idem, 2 : 407. 
 
Municipal Finance in the Twelfth Census. 443 
 
 the item of " salaries separately reported " seems un- 
 necessarily large. Still another item open to criticism 
 is that " the amount of interest paid on bonds issued by 
 any city and held in the sinking fund is treated only as 
 a transfer between accounts, and the interest payment 
 correspondingly diminished." ' 
 
 As a result of this practice, and that of including in 
 the expenses of water works and other undertakings in- 
 terest on the bonds issued in connection with such 
 undertakings and then giving ovAy the net results, it is 
 impossible to determine the total expenditure for interest 
 on bonded debt, a fact of considerable importance in 
 municipal finance. It is certainly most remarkable that 
 neither in the tables of receipts and expenditures nor in 
 the hundreds of pages devoted to the statistics of mimici- 
 pal indebtedness, is there a figure which shows the ex- 
 penditure for interest by a single city. 
 
 lyike the schedule of receipts, the schedule of expendi- 
 tures is open to the criticism that the classification is not 
 sufficiently detailed. It is not necessary to specif)' the 
 directions in which it might be advantageously expanded. 
 This will be evident from a comparison of the tables em- 
 ployed in the census with the schedules suggested in 
 appendix III. 
 
 Suggested schedules.— h.s already stated the schedules 
 in the appendices are intended as suggestions subject to 
 alteration in detail as the facts when collected may show 
 to be desirable. They are prepared, moreover, with 
 special reference to the larger cities. While preserving 
 the same general scheme it would probably prove advisa- 
 ble to omit much of the detail in the case of the smaller 
 cities.^ It is believed that the facts presented in accord- 
 
 ' Ibid. 
 
 ^ It is not claimed that the receipts and expenditures of all even of 
 
^_j.^ American Economic Associatio7i. 
 
 ance with these schedules (I and II in appendix III) 
 would constitute a contribution of real value to the study 
 of municipal finance. 
 
 Schedules I a and II a give a recapitulation of the main 
 classes of receipts and expenditures in such a 'way as to 
 make allowance for items somewhat exceptional in char- 
 acter and to render possible comparisons on several dis- 
 tinct bases. Schedule III shows in their relation to each 
 other the main facts of revenue and expenditure. Sched- 
 ule IV shows revenue and expenditure for certain depart- 
 ments which yield considerable revenue, although the 
 obtaining of revenue is not the primary purpose for 
 which they are administered, or which are largely sup- 
 ported by special taxes, fees, etc. 
 
 Schedule V shows the receipts and expenditures of 
 the sinking funds. As, under the plan proposed, the 
 sinking fund accounts are not combined with those of 
 the general treasury, this separate presentation is neces- 
 sary. Schedule VI shows for total receipts and expend- 
 itures, the result of combining the sinking fund and 
 general treasury accounts. 
 
 It would be highly desirable to present the figures for 
 the receipts and expenditures of the larger cities for the 
 intercensal years. The detail involved, however, is so 
 much greater than in other branches that it is doubtful 
 whether such a presentation would be practicable. 
 
 No schedules are suggested for municipalities other 
 than cities. The reason of this is the desire to save 
 space. If the schedules suggested for cities were adopted, 
 
 the larger cities can be classified with the detail called for by the 
 schedules. This may be impossible for many cities. For the majority 
 of the larger cities the details can be given and the vakie of the tables 
 correspondingly increased. Further, the general scheme being the 
 same, the greater or less detail in the figures for different cities will 
 not destroy the basis of comparison between them. 
 
Municipal Finance in the Twelfth Census. 445 
 
 it would be a comparatively easy matter to prepare 
 schedules for other municipalities which should be com- 
 parable and capable of combination with the former. 
 
 It will be noticed that the schedules proposed make 
 no provision for presenting the figures of revenue and 
 expenditure in a single schedule in which each depart- 
 ment of administration is charged with the expenditure 
 incurred and credited with the revenue received in con- 
 nection with it. This is done by some European and 
 American cities, and is recommended by some writers 
 who speak with authority.' In the opinion of the writer, 
 however, such a practice tends to confuse and mislead 
 rather than inform. The principles of classification for 
 revenue and for expenditure are radically different. Rev- 
 enue should be classified according to the source from 
 which it is received, expenditure according to the pur- 
 pose for which it is made. These two principles of 
 classification cannot be combined in a single schedule, 
 and any attempt to do so which results in anything else 
 than a mere repetition of the tables of revenue and ex- 
 penditures, is certain to lead in many instances to arbi- 
 trary and misleading classification of revenue or expen- 
 diture or both. The usual plan when such an attempt 
 is made is to use a composite schedule corresponding 
 more closely to the expenditure than to the revenue 
 schedule. In this, expenditures are classified in practi- 
 cally the same way as in the separate expenditure sched- 
 ule, but in the case of revenue what is regularly appro- 
 priated to meet the expenditure of any department of the 
 city government is credited to it regardless of the nature 
 of the relation which exists between the revenue so ap- 
 propriated and the department. The relation may exist 
 
 ' See " Suggestions for the Study of Mimicipal Finance " by Fred. 
 R. Clow in Quarterly Journal of Economics, luly, 1896. 
 
446 American Economic Association. 
 
 merely in tlie act of appropriation {e. g., the revenue 
 from dog licenses may be appropriated to school pur- 
 poses) or in the fact that the revenue is raised for the 
 special purpose of meeting the expense of a department 
 {e.g.., sewer assessments) or in the fact that the revenue 
 is the direct result of the work of the department {e.g..^ 
 receipts from sale of water or gas). Revenue not regu- 
 larly appropriated to specific purposes is usually stated 
 separately according to the source from which it is de- 
 rived, the classification of the revenue schedule being to 
 this extent introduced into the composite schedule. The 
 results of such a schedule are apt to be as follows : 
 
 1. A great amount of repetition provided separate 
 schedules are also used. 
 
 2. Arbitrary and misleading classification of certain 
 revenues. Not only is revenue credited to departments 
 with which it has no real connection, but revenue from 
 like sources maj' be credited to different departments in 
 different cities, and even different portions of revenue 
 from the same source to different departments in the 
 same city, according to the chances of appropriation acts. 
 
 3. A considerable amount of valuable information in 
 regard to the relative revenue and expenditure of a num- 
 ber of departments which yield a revenue or are sup- 
 ported by special taxes levied for the department. 
 
 It is possible to give the information mentioned under 
 3 without combining with it the repetition and mislead- 
 ing classification mentioned under i and 2. Provision 
 for such a presentation is made in appendix III,, 
 schedule IV. 
 
 Another omission which may seem to many important, 
 is the failure to provide for a complete statement of mu- 
 nicipal assets and liabilities in connection with the fig- 
 ures for receipts and expenditures. It seems to the 
 
Mu7iicipal Finance in the Twelfth Census. 4.4.^ 
 
 writer, however, that when the statement of assets is 
 extended to property (^. ^., streets and sewers) which 
 yields no income, which is never bought or sold, and to 
 which, therefore, no market value can be assigned, the 
 estimates placed on such property are apt to be mislead- 
 ing and must necessarily be so arbitrary as to be of little 
 value. Provision for a statement of assets to which a 
 market value can be fairly assigned, and of liabilities, is 
 made in schedule II, appendix II, and there would seem 
 to be no need of repeating it in connection with the 
 schedules of receipts and expenditures. 
 
 The criticisms of the last census and the suggestions 
 made in this report have had reference to the methods of 
 classification adopted rather than to the accuracy of the 
 figures. There are two reasons for this : i. There is no 
 suggestion to make in regard to accuracy. It must be 
 attained if the work is to be of value. 2. One of the 
 most serious criticisms on the classification followed is 
 that it makes it impossible to determine whether the 
 figures are accurate. The writer has no reason to doubt 
 the substantial accuracy of the census figures although 
 some errors have come to his notice, e.g:, in the case of 
 Rhode Island, under the heading " Collections for state 
 and county separately reported," figures are given for 
 Providence (2 : 554,576) and for Bristol and Cumber- 
 land, but not for the other towns. All the towns, how- 
 ever, made such collections, and it would have been easy 
 to find the amount. 
 
 The attainment of accuracy is dependent on the ad- 
 ministration of the census work, suggestions in regard 
 to which do not fall within the scope of this report. 
 
448 American Economic Association. 
 
 V. 
 FINAL CONSIDERATIONS. 
 
 There is a question which, while it does not, perhaps, 
 properly fall within the scope of this report, is so essen- 
 tial to a correct estimate of the importance of municipal 
 finance that it seems to demand consideration here. To 
 estimate aright the importance of municipal finance as 
 an element in the financial S5'Stem of the country as a 
 whole, we must study it not merely by itself but in con- 
 nection with the finances of the county, the state, and 
 the nation. Between the finances of the municipality, 
 the county, and the state, there is sufficient unity to 
 make advisable a statement showing their combined re- 
 sults, and it is of great importance that the schedule 
 employed for this purpose should be such as to show the 
 facts in their true relations to each other. Unfortunate- 
 ly the eleventh census is even more open to criticism in 
 regard to the manner in which this part of the work 
 was done than in its presentation of the facts of muni- 
 cipal finance separately. 
 
 The worst faults are to be found in the table showing 
 the combined results for receipts and expenditures.^ 
 
 Bringing the summaries for receipts and expenditures 
 as presented in the table on page 449 into comparison 
 with each other we have the result there shown. 
 
 It is evident at a glance thlt the classification adopted 
 is confusing and misleading. The figures for receipts 
 and expenditures do not apply to the same bodies 
 throughout. Thus no expenditures are given for the 
 bodies for which receipts are given in column 6 and no 
 receipts are given for the bodies for which the expendi- 
 tures are given in columns 7 and 8. In other cases, 
 the figures for expenditure do not include the whole ex- 
 
 ' Wealth, Debt and Taxation, 2 : 410-411. 
 
Municipal Finance in the Twelfth Census. 
 
 449 
 
 OD 
 
 Additional 
 
 estimated for 
 
 places not 
 
 reported in 
 
 detail. 
 
 t^ 
 
 School dis- 
 tricts or other 
 divisions in 
 charge of pub- 
 lic common 
 schools. 
 
 VO 
 
 Additional 
 estimated for 
 public com- 
 mon schools 
 and places not 
 reported 
 in detail. 
 
 lO 
 
 Municipali- 
 ties having 
 less than than 
 50,000 but 4,000 
 or more popu- 
 lation and 
 reported 
 in detail. 
 
 -^ 
 
 Municipali- 
 ties having 
 
 50,000 or more 
 population 
 
 and reported 
 in detail. 
 
 CO 
 
 Ilk 
 5K.S 
 
 CI 
 
 
 M 
 
 
 w 
 o 
 
 w 
 
 A 
 
 w 
 
 M 
 
 O 
 IS 
 W 
 
 M 
 
 o 
 
 c-S o 
 
 fa? fi^ ^J 
 
 o 
 
 cfl 
 
 penditure made from the revenue with which the ex- 
 penditure is brought into comparison, the result being 
 a large apparent surplus. Thus in the states the figures 
 for receipts include some thirty-six million dollars col- 
 lected and paid over to minor divisions, but in the 
 figures for expenditures this item is omitted, being trans- 
 29 
 
450 American Economic Association. 
 
 ferred to column 7. In the same way the figfures for 
 the receipts of municipalities with 50,000 population 
 and over include $30,942,042, and the figures for the re- 
 ceipts of municipalities with 4000-50,000, $10,853,822, 
 which is omitted in the figures for the expenditures for 
 the same municipalities, and is transferred to column 7. 
 Whether or not it is desirable to treat school finances 
 separately, the mixture of two principles of classification 
 in the same table can yield nothing but confusion. If 
 the expenditures for schools were to be treated sepa- 
 rately, the same principle should have been followed in 
 the case of receipts. 
 
 The same classification is followed in table 8\ which 
 shows " ordinary receipts and expenditures of states and 
 territories, counties, municipalities and school districts 
 by classification of sources and objects." Even aside 
 from the faults just pointed out, the table of which the 
 summary is given above is not satisfactory, since only 
 the absolute amounts of the receipts and expenditures 
 for each state, and not the per capita amounts, are given. 
 Thus comparing the receipts of the states, counties and 
 municipalities in Massachusetts and Indiana, we have 
 the following figures : 
 
 Massachusetts. _ 
 
 state. 
 
 County. 
 ^1,644,402 
 
 Municipalities 
 having 50,000 
 or more pop- 
 ulation. 
 
 118,978,020 
 
 Municipalities 
 having less 
 
 than 50,000 but 
 
 4,000 or more 
 
 population. 
 
 ^12,914,367 
 
 Indiana 
 
 3,360,876 
 
 7,505,318 
 
 1,127,983 
 
 1,436,717 
 
 Since the county organization includes the whole 
 population in each state, the table shows clearly that 
 people in Indiana pay on the average for their county 
 government as compared with their state government 
 about fifteen times as much as the people of Massachu- 
 setts. Comparing the receipts of the state and munici- 
 '^ Idem, 420-451. 
 
R'hiniccpal Finance in the Twelfth Census. 45 r 
 
 palities in the two states, we find that in Massachusetts 
 the receipts of the municipalities are about three and 
 one-third times as great as the receipts of state, while in 
 Indiana the receipts of the state are about one and one- 
 third times as great as the receipts of municipalities. 
 These figures, however, throw no light whatever on the 
 important question, Do the dwellers in cities in Massa- 
 chusetts pay more or less than the dwellers in the cities 
 in Indiana for their city government as compared with 
 their state government? The relatively large receipts 
 of municipalities in Massachusetts may indicate that 
 they do but, on the other hand, it may indicate simply 
 that a much larger portion of the population of Massa- 
 chusetts live in cities than is the case in Indiana. The 
 census figures give us no help in determining which of 
 these conditions is the true explanation of the great 
 difference in the relative importance of state and munici- 
 pal revenue in the two states. The same is true of table 
 5,^ which gives the total ad valorem taxation for the 
 state, counties and municipalities in each state, and of 
 the table^ which gives a summary of state, county and 
 municipal indebtedness by states. The only way of 
 overcoming the difficulty stated is to give for each 
 group of administrative divisions the population in- 
 cluded within the group and the per capita as well as 
 the absolute amount of valuation, taxation, receipts, ex- 
 penditures and indebtedness. 
 
 The nearest approach in the census to a satisfactory 
 presentation of figures for the different sorts of admin- 
 istrative bodies in a single table is made in the table 
 showing " the national, state, and classes of the local 
 bonded debt of the United States, and the amount, aver- 
 
 ■ Idem, 2 : 102. 
 'Idem, I : 77-78. 
 
452 American Economic Association. 
 
 age interest rate, and per capita interest charged there- 
 on for 1890." ' 
 
 Aside from the changes in the classification of mu- 
 nicipalities suggested in this report, the grouping of the 
 different political and administrative divisions in this 
 table would be entirely satisfactory, if there were intro- 
 duced before the first column two columns showing res- 
 pectively the population of each group of administra- 
 tive bodies and the percentage of the total population 
 of the state included within the area of each. The 
 same principle should, of course, be applied to all tables 
 in which the figures for different administrative divis- 
 ions are combined. 
 
 A final question remains : the question whether it is 
 advisable to extend or even to retain the statistics of 
 state and local finance, as a part of the census work. 
 
 Since the tables proposed in the appendices to this re- 
 port are more detailed than the corresponding tables 
 used in the eleventh census, it will appear at first sight 
 that the substitution of the proposed schedules will in- 
 volve a considerable increase of space. The increase 
 due to this change might, however, be largely if not 
 wholly offset by the omission of much matter of small 
 value published in the finance statistics of the last cen- 
 sus.''' As regards the advisability of continuing the 
 work even though no considerable increase of cost and 
 space be required, there is general agreement among 
 those who have given attention to the subject that the 
 last two censuses have attempted to cover too wide a 
 field, and that while it is possible that certain branches 
 of census work may be profitably extended, other 
 ^ Idem, I : 857. 
 
 ' It must be remembered that it is proposed to treat in greater detail 
 only the larger cities, and even to group the smaller places, the figures 
 for which occupy the greater part of the space in the last census. 
 
Municipal Finance in the Twelfth Census. 453 
 
 branches should be greatly curtailed, or entirely cut off. 
 It is further felt that it would be a distinct gain if the 
 net result of these changes were a marked decrease in 
 the bulk of the census. Although there are good grounds 
 for these views, yet unless provision is made for carry- 
 ing on the work in some better way it hardly seems 
 advisable for the census even though its organization re- 
 main unchanged,' to drop a portion of its work which 
 deals with a matter of great and increasing importance, 
 which has been carried on by two previous censuses, 
 and which, although open to serious criticism, has 
 yielded results of much value, and is susceptible of very 
 great improvement. Such provision for a portion of the 
 work seems probable. By an act passed at a recent 
 session of Congress the Department of L,abor is author- 
 ized to publish annually, as a part of its Bulletin, 
 the statistics of cities with a population of 30,000 or 
 over. The Department of Dabor is better fitted than 
 the census will probably be to do this work efhciently, 
 and if it undertakes the presentation of finance statistics 
 of the larger cities, the census should certainly not attempt 
 to duplicate its work. Unless, however, the work of 
 the Department of Labor is extended beyond the limits 
 above defined, it will still remain for the census to pre- 
 sent the statistics of the finances of states, counties, the 
 smaller municipalities and the special districts, as well as 
 the statistics of state and local finance as a whole. This 
 is essential for the understanding not merely of public 
 finance in this countrj^ but of municipal finance itself, 
 since existing conditions and changes in the latter can- 
 
 ' This point should be emphasized. There is nothing in the charac- 
 ter of the statistics of public finance which prevents their successful 
 treatment by the census. 
 
454 American Economic Association. 
 
 not be intelligently interpreted without a knowledge of 
 the accompanying conditions and changes in the finances 
 of other political and administrative bodies of which the 
 municipality forms a part. 
 
 Henry B. Gardner. 
 
 Brown University. 
 
APPENDIX I.' 
 SUMMARY. 
 
 Population. 
 
 Valuation and ad valorem taxation. 
 
 Assessed valuation — real estate ; personal property ; total ; per 
 capita. 
 
 *True valuation of real estate — taxed ; exempt ; total ; per capita. 
 
 Ad valorem taxation — total ; per capita ; rate per f loo of assessed 
 valuation ; rate per f loo of real estate (true valuation). 
 
 Debt. 
 
 Bonded; floating; total; net (total less sinking fund). Per cent 
 of assessed valuation — a. gross debt ; b. net debt. *Per cent of true 
 valuation of real estate — a. gross debt ; b. net debt. 
 
 Receipts and expenditures. 
 
 Receipts, *from ordinary sources — a. total ; b. per capita ; from all 
 sources (including, however, only excess of receipts from loans and 
 sinking funds over expenditures for same purposes) — a. total ; b. per 
 capita. 
 
 Expenditures, for operation and maintenance (1900) — a. total; b. 
 per capita; for additions to real estate and equipment (1900) — a. 
 total ; b. per capita ; for interest on debt — a. bonded (1880, 1900) ; b. 
 floating (1900) ; c. total (1900) ; for all purposes (including, how- 
 ever, only excess of payments on account of principal of debt and 
 sinking funds over receipts from same sources) — a. total ; b. per capita. 
 
 APPENDIX 11.^ 
 SCHEDULE I. — DEBT MOVEMENT 189O-I9OO. 
 
 At beginning of year. 
 
 Gross bonded debt; sinking fund; net bonded debt, i.e., gross 
 bonded debt less sinking fund ; gross floating debt ; cash in treasury ; 
 net floating debt, i.e., gross floating debt less cash in treasury ; total 
 gross debt, bonded and floating ; total net debt, bonded and floating. 
 
 1 when not otherwise specified, figures should be given for each of the j-ears 
 1880, i8go and 1900. An asterisk indicates that it would probably be impossible to 
 give the figures for 1880. There should be four columns, one for the amount and 
 three for the per cent of increase. 1880-1890, rSgo-igoo and 1880-1900 respectively. 
 
 2 The figures for the following items should be given for each of the intercensal 
 years, 1890-1900 inclusive. 
 
456 American Economic Association. 
 
 During year. 
 
 Bonds issued — a. in anticipation of current revenue ; b. other ; 
 bonds paid or purchased — a. bonds issued in anticipation of current 
 revenue ; b. other ; floating debt incurred ; floating debt paid. 
 
 SCHEDULE II. — DETAIIvED STATEMENT OP DEBT AND ASSETS. 
 
 Debt. 
 
 Bonded ; floating ; total. 
 Productive and available assets. 
 
 1. Cash in treasury. 
 
 2. Productive assets, a. Sinking funds — cash ; bonds of the city 
 itself ; bonds of other cities ; bonds of the United States ; bonds of 
 states ; bonds of other public bodies ; other securities, b. Other 
 funds — securities ; real estate ; other property, c. Quasi-private en- 
 terprises — real estate ; plant ; other assets, d. Other productive prop- 
 erty — securities ; real estate ; other. 
 
 3. Available but non-productive assets — a. real estate ; b. other. 
 
 4. Total productive and available assets. 
 
 Comparison between debt and assets. 
 
 1. Bonded debt less sinking funds — amount; per capita. 
 
 2. Bonded debt less productive and available assets — amount ; per 
 capita. 
 
 3. Bonded and floating debt less sinking funds and cash in treas- 
 ury — amount ; per capita. 
 
 4. Bonded and floating debt less productive and available assets — 
 amount ; per capita. 
 
 5. Interest on bonded debt. 
 
 6. Income from productive assets (net'). 
 
 7. Proportion of net income from productive assets to interest on 
 bonded debt — per cent. 
 
 8. Proportion of net income from productive assets (other than 
 sinking funds) to interest on bonded debt — per cent. 
 
 APPENDIX III. 
 
 SCHEDDI^E I. — SOURCES OlP REVENUE. 
 
 Explanatory note. 
 
 As already stated, the purpose of this schedule is to suggest an ap- 
 proximately satisfactory scheme for the classification of revenues. It 
 
 1 Gross income less expenditures for operation, care and maintenance, sinking 
 fund charges and allowance for depreciation. 
 
Municipal Finance in the Twelfth Census. 457 
 
 is intended to show the main classes into which reveniies may be ad- 
 vantageously divided and the character of the items which should be 
 grouped under each class. If the attempt were made to vise the sched- 
 ule for census work it would doubtless prove advantageous to con- 
 dense it, perhaps by one-half. Many items might be found to occur 
 so infrequently that it would be advisable to treat them in foot-notes 
 rather than to include them in the general schedule. It is believed, 
 however, that the schedule contains no items for which it would not 
 be well -to give the figures separately (either in the schedule itself or 
 in foot-notes) when the items occur and a separate statement is possi- 
 ble. Indeed, a complete examination of city finances would doubt- 
 less disclose many items not included in this schedule for which a 
 separate statement would be desirable. Just the points at which, and 
 the extent to which, the schedule could be advantageously condensed 
 can be determined only by experience. 
 
 It is intended that in its main features it should be as near an ap- 
 proach to scientific requirements as it is practicable to make. Class 
 V would probable be most open to criticism on scientific grounds. 
 Many items included in this class should doubtless, in accordance 
 with scientific principles, be classed as fees, since the character of a 
 payment as a fee is, by those who speak with most authority on the 
 subject, made to depend not so much on the character of the service 
 as on the relation between the cost of the service and the amount paid 
 for it. This method of determining whether or not a payment is a fee 
 would be very difficult to follow in census work, and it has seemed best, 
 therefore, to apply the term fee to payments for services rendered or in 
 accordance with conditions imposed, in which the element of compul- 
 .sion by the city over the individual is strong. Payments for those 
 services or goods which the individual is, in theory at least, free to 
 accept or decline are included in Class V. This principle of classifica- 
 tion, while not entirely free from ambiguity, is relatively easy to 
 apply. 
 
 The significance and application of the separate statement of sums 
 paid by other political and administrative bodies, and of sums paid by 
 one branch of the city administration for services rendered by other 
 branches, may be seen by reference to Schedule I a. In the case of 
 the former the figures have a direct bearing on the figures of the 
 schedule in which the facts are given for the states, counties and 
 minor divisions together. 
 
 Schedule. 
 
 There should be separate columns showing the actual and per capita revenue 
 and the per cent that each item of revenue is of the reveime from the next higher 
 or more general class. For this purpose the main divisions I-VIII are treated 
 as direct sub-divisions of IX and main divisions IX, X, XI, XII, XIII. XIV, XV, 
 direct subdivisions of XVI. 
 
458 American Economic Association. 
 
 Balance on hand at beginning of year. 
 
 Revenue from : 
 
 I. Taxation. 
 
 I. General property tax ; 2. taxes on special forms of properly ; 3. 
 poll taxes ; 4. taxes on trades and occupations (exclusive of taxes on 
 companies in possession of public franchises) ; a. liquor trade ; b. to- 
 bacco trade ; c. other trades ; d. occupations other than trades. 5. 
 franchise taxes — a. street railway companies ; b. ferry companies ; c. 
 water companies ; d. gas companies ; e. electric light and power com- 
 panies ; f. telephone companies ; g. other companies. 6. fees — a. 
 court fees ; police courts ; other courts ; b. other fees such as those 
 from inspection of buildings, boilers, plumbing, etc. 7. special assess- 
 ments — a. streets ; acqvrisition of land ; opening and building ; main- 
 taining and repairing ; b. sidewalks and curbing ; c. sewers ; d. 
 bridges ; e. other. 8. other taxes. 
 II. Penalties. 
 
 I. Fines and penalties assessed by courts — a. police courts ; b. other 
 courts. 2. Other penalties. 
 
 III. Rents. 
 
 I. Docks and wharves; 2. ferries; 3. markets; 4. conduits; 5. 
 other improved real estate ; 6. unimproved real estate. 
 
 IV. Investynents otlier than real estate (exclusive of sinking funds) . 
 I. School funds ; 2. other funds. 
 
 V. Services rendered and goods sold by city.^ 
 
 I. Penal institutions — a. prisons and jails (from industries carried 
 on by inmates ; from other political and administrative bodies), and 
 similarly for workhouses, reformatories, and other institutions. 2. 
 institutions for the care of the needy and dependent classes — a. hos- 
 pitals (from other political and administrative bodies) ; b. asylums ; 
 (from other political and administrative bodies) ; c. lodging houses ; 
 d. wood yards, stone yards, etc. ; from city itself ; e. laundries ; from 
 city itself ; f. other institutions. 3. parks ; 4. cemeteries ; 5. quasi- 
 private enterprises — a. water, (from city itself) ; b. gas, (from city 
 itself) ; c. electric light and power, (from city itself) ; d. conduits, 
 (from city itself) ; e. ferries ; f. docks and wharves ; g. printing, 
 (from city itself) ; 6. other. 
 
 VI. Interest. 
 
 I. Deposits; 2. other. 
 
 VII. Grants from oilier political and administrative bodies (exclu- 
 sive of payments for services rendered and goods furnished by city). 
 
 I. From state ; for schools; for other purposes; 2. from county; 
 for schools ; for other purposes ; 3. from other bodies ; for schools ; 
 for other purposes. 
 
 ' Items in parenthesis should be separately stated, but do not form a complete 
 subdivision. 
 
Municipal Finance in the Twelfth Census. 459 
 
 VIII. Other revenue not of an extraordinary character. 
 
 IX. TOTAI, REVENUE FROM ORDINARY' SOURCES. 
 
 X. Sales (other than those included under previous headings), 
 I. Real estate ; 2. other. 
 
 XI. Donations (exclusive of grants included under VI). 
 XII. Other revenue not included in VIII, XIV, or XV. 
 
 XIII. TOTAI, REVENUE FROM SOURCES OTHER THAN I,OANS AND 
 
 WITHDRAWAl^S FROM SINKING FUNDS. 
 
 XIV. Loans. 
 
 I. Sales of bonds including premiums and interest received ; 2. 
 other. 
 
 XV. Transfers from sinking fund. 
 
 XVI. TOTAI, REVENUE FROM AI,I, SOURCES. 
 
 XVII. ToTAl, RESOURCES (total revenue plus balance at beginning of 
 year). 
 
 SCHEDULE I a. 
 
 (Both actual and per capita figures should be given. ) 
 
 A. RESTATEMENTS OF REVENUE FROM ORDINARY SOURCES. 
 
 I. Revenue from ordinary sources (IX above). 
 II. Revenvie as in I, less revenue received from other political and 
 administrative bodies. 
 
 III. Revenue as in II, less refunds (Schedule II, Class IX). 
 
 IV. Revenue as in III, less revenue from quasi-private enterprises due 
 
 to payments by the city itself for services rendered by such 
 enterprises. 
 V. Revenue as in IV, less other revenue from quasi-private enter- 
 prises. 
 
 B. NET RE^'ENUE FROM LOANS AND TRANSFERS FROM SINKING 
 
 FUNDS. 
 
 Excess of revenue from loans and transfers from sinking funds over 
 debt paid and transfers to sinking funds. 
 
 1 The term " ordiuary " is employed here not iu any scientific sense, but solely 
 ■with reference to actual conditions in the different cities referred to. " Ordi- 
 nary " revenue is revenue from sources which may be regarded as regular or per- 
 manent. 
 
460 American Economic Association. 
 
 SCHEDUI^E II. — EXPENDITURES. 
 
 Explanatory note. 
 
 The statements made in the first half of the explanatory note in con- 
 nection with Schedule I apply mutatis mutandis to Schedule II. In 
 practice it would probably prove advisable to condense the schedule, 
 possibly combining certain items' and placing in foot-notes certain 
 others of infrequent occurrence. 
 
 The term " unclassified " as here used is intended to include expen- 
 ditures for two or more of the purposes, in the same general class with 
 the unclassified expenditures, which expenditures, being of siich a 
 character that it is impossible to distribute them, cannot be assigned 
 to the purposes in question. Thus if a commissioner of public works 
 has charge of streets, sewers, bridges and water-works, his salary and 
 general office expenses should properly be distributed among the ex- 
 penditures for the purposes mentioned. This, however, being impos- 
 sible the amount is entered in the proper general class of expendittires 
 as " unclassified," the figures following indicating the divisions with- 
 in the class among which the unclassified expenditure would be dis- 
 tributed if possible. 
 
 The use of the terms " operation and maintenance " and " additions 
 to real estate and equipment" is explained on page 435 of this vol- 
 ume. 
 
 Sciiedule. 
 
 PURPOSES OF EXPENDITURE. 
 
 There should be separate columns showing i. Expenditures for 
 operation and maintenance ; 2. expenditures for additions to real 
 estate and equipment ; 3. total expenditures. Columns i and 3 should 
 be subdivided so as to show actual and per capita amounts and the 
 per cent which each item constitutes of the item of which it is a direct 
 subdivision. In column i, main classes I, II, etc., should be treated 
 as subdivisions of the total for that column, and this total as a sub- 
 division of the total for XII in column 3. In column 3, main classes 
 I-XI should be treated as subdivisions of XII and main classes XII- 
 XIV as subdivisions of XV. 
 
 I. General government. 
 
 I. General executive officers — mayor; other; 2. legislative (city 
 council, clerk, etc.) ; 3. elections (including boards of canvassers and 
 elections) ; 4. buildings (exclusive of those belonging to departments 
 specified below) ; 5. unclassified (i, 2, 3, 4) ; 6. other purposes in 
 class I. 
 
 lit is believed, however, that there are few items which should not be separate- 
 ly stated either in the schedule or in foot-notes when they occur. 
 
Municipal Finayice in the Twelfth Census. 461 
 
 II. Financial systein. 
 I. Treasurer; 2. auditor (comptroller); 3. assessment of taxes 
 (boards of assessment, equalization, etc.) ; 4. collection of taxes; 5. 
 management of debt and sinking fund ; 6. vmclassified ; 7, other pur- 
 poses in class II. 
 
 III. Security o/pei-son and property , and enforcement of law. 
 
 Parentheses indicate that the items enclosed should be specified when they 
 occur. 
 
 I. Police department ; 2. fire department ; 3. inspection of build- 
 ings ; 4. inspection of boilers ; 5. law department ; 6. courts : police 
 court ; other courts ; 7. penal and reformatory institutions — prisons 
 and jails, industries carried on by inmates ; workhouse, (industries car- 
 ried on by inmates) ; reformatories, (industries carried on by in- 
 mates) ; other institutions ; unclassified ; 8. unclassified ; 9. other pur- 
 poses in class III. 
 
 IV. Well being and convenience (other than education and allied 
 
 purposes ) . 
 
 I. Health — a. general expenses of health department ; b. inspection 
 of food ; c. inspection of plumbing ; d. removal and disposal of gar- 
 bage ; 2. sewers; 3. means of communication — a. streets (other than 
 street cleaning) ; b, street cleaning; c. bridges; d. rivers and har- 
 bors; e. docks and wharves; f. ferries; 4. light and power — gas,' 
 electric^, other' ; 5. water' ; 6. markets ; 7. conduits ; 8. parks, rec- 
 reation grounds and piers ; g. public baths and comfort stations ; 10. 
 regulation of certain kinds of traffic — a. liquor trafiic ; b. other; 11. 
 employment bureau ; 12. unclassified ; 13. other purposes in class IV. 
 V. Education and allied purposes. 
 
 I. Schools — 2. libraries and reading rooms; 3. museums and art 
 galleries ; 4. monuments ; 5. historical documents ; 6. celebrations, 
 music, etc. ; 7. unclassified ; 8. other purposes in class V. 
 VI. Needy and dependent classes. 
 
 I. Hospitals; 2. asylums; 3. almshouses; 4. wood-yards, stone- 
 yards, etc. ; 5. laundries ; 6. lodging houses ; 7. out relief ; 8. un- 
 classified ; 9. other purposes in class VI. 
 VII. Interest. 
 
 I. Bonded debt ; 2. floating debt. 
 VIII. Additions to funds (other than sinking funds) and productive 
 property (other than that included under IV, 3-7). 
 
 IX. Refunds. 
 
 X. Unclassified. 
 
 XI. Other purposes (except payment of debt and transfers to sink- 
 irig funds ) . 
 
 1 when the expenditures for these purposes are expenditures for enterprises 
 owned and managed by the city, the fact should be indicated by printing the fig- 
 ures in italics. 
 
462 American Economic Association. 
 
 XII. TOTAI, OF CLASSES I-XI. 
 
 XIII. Payment {including purchase) of debt. 
 
 I. Bonded debt (including premium on bonds purchased) ; 2. float- 
 ing debt. 
 
 XIV. Payments to sinking fund. 
 
 XV. TOTAI, EXPENDITURES FOR AI<I< PURPOSES. 
 
 XVI. Balance on hand at end of year. 
 
 XVII. Total, including balance. 
 
 SCHEDULE II a. 
 {Botli actual and per capita figures should be given. ) 
 
 A. RESTATEMENTS OF EXPENDITURES FOR OPERATION AND 
 
 MAINTENANCE. 
 
 I. Expenditures for operation and maintenance (Schedule II). 
 II. Expendittires as in I, less expenditures on account of other po- 
 litical and administrative bodies as measured by payments 
 received from them. (See Schedule I a. ) 
 
 III. Expenditures as in II, less refunds. (Schedule II, IX.) 
 
 IV. Expenditures as in III, less expenditures for services rendered and 
 
 goods supplied by departments of the city itself. 
 V. Expenditures as in III, less expenditures for operation and main- 
 tenance of quasi-private enterprises. 
 
 B. NET EXPENDITURES FOR DEBT AND SINKING FUND. 
 
 Excess of expenditures for payment (or purchase) of debt and 
 transfers to sinking fund over receipts from loans and transfers from 
 sinking fund. 
 
 SCHEDULE III. — REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE COMPARED. 
 
 I. Revenue from ordinary sources (Schedule I, IX). 
 
 II. Expenditures for purposes other than the payment of debt and 
 
 transfers to sinking funds (Schedule II, XII). a. Operation 
 and maintenance ; b. addition to real estate and equipment. 
 
 III. Excess of I over II. 
 
 IV. Excess of II over I. 
 V. Excess of I over Ila. 
 
 VI. Excess of Ila over I. 
 VII. Revenue from all sources other than loans and withdrawals 
 from sinldng funds (Schedule I, XIII). 
 
Municipal Finance in the Twelfth Censns. 463 
 
 VIII. Excess of VII over II. 
 IX. Excess of II over VII. 
 X. Excess of VII over Ila. 
 XI. Excess of Ila over VII. 
 
 SCHKDUI,E IV. — COMPARISON OF EXPENDITURES FOR CERTAIN PUR- 
 POSES WITH REVENUE FROM SPECIAI< SOURCES AVAII,ABI,E 
 FOR SUCH PURPOSES. 
 
 Explanatory note. 
 
 Under " revenue from special sources " are included for each, depart- 
 ment of expenditure, special taxes levied to meet its needs ; fees, fines, 
 costs, payments for services rendered, goods sunplied and privileges 
 granted, and all other receipts incident to its administration ; rent of 
 real estate and income from funds belonging to it or held for its use ; 
 and regular grants in its favor from other political and administrative 
 bodies. The following classes of revenue are not included . 
 
 I. Gifts or special grants by other political or administrative bodies ; 
 2. income from sales of property which involve a diminution in the 
 real estate or equipment of the department in question ; 3. revenue 
 which in its origin has no relation to the department in question, but 
 which is by law appropriated to its uses, e. g., revenue from a tax on 
 dogs, or the sale of liquor, or the franchise of a street railway com- 
 pany, although appropriated to the use of schools, would not be in- 
 cluded in the revenue of schools from special sources as here given. 
 
 In estimating " expenditures for operation and maintenance " there 
 is added to expenditure, as given in Schedule II, the interest and 
 sinking fund payments on account of any debt incurred in connection 
 with the department in question, and in the case of productive im- 
 proved real estate, and quasi-private enterprises, an allowance for de- 
 preciation, unless the facts show that the expenditures for repairs, 
 included in the expenditures for maintenance, really cover that item. 
 
 As in the case of Schedules I and II, it would probably prove to be 
 advisable to omit from the general schedule certain items here speci- 
 fied, stating the facts in foot-notes when necessary. 
 
 Sctiedule. 
 
 There should be separate columns showing i. Revenue from special sources; 
 2. Expenditures for operation and maintenance ; 3. Excess of i over 2 or 2 over 1 ; 
 4. Percentage of i to 2. 
 
 DEPARTMENTS OF EXPENDITURE. 
 
 Courts. 
 Police ; probate ; other. 
 
464 American Economic Association. 
 
 Penal institutions. 
 
 Prisons and jails ; workhouses; reformatories; other institutions. 
 Institutions for the care of the needy and dependent classes. 
 
 Hospitals ; asylums ; almshouses ; wood-yards, stone-yards, etc. ; 
 laundries ; lodging-houses ; other institutions. 
 Employment bureau. 
 Streets. 
 Bridges. 
 
 Rivers and harbors. 
 Sewers. 
 Parlis. 
 
 Street cleaning. 
 Removal of garbage. 
 Productive real estate and quasi-private enterprises. 
 
 Water supply ; gas supply ; electric light and power ; wharves and 
 docks ; ferries ; conduits ; markets ; other improved real estate. 
 
 SCHEDUI,E V. — REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE OE SINKING FUNDS. 
 
 On hand at beginning of year. 
 Cash ; securities. 
 
 I. Revenue. 
 
 1. From general treasury (not including payment of interest on city 
 
 debt held in the sinking fund). 
 
 2. Interest and dividends on securities, a. Interest on city debt 
 
 held in sinking funds ; b. interest on securities of other politi- 
 cal and administrative bodies within the country ; c. other 
 dividends and interest. 
 
 II. Expenditure. 
 
 1. Payments to general treasury. 
 
 2. Debt paid or purchased (including premiums) withoutynterven- 
 
 tion of general treasury. 
 
 3. Other purposes. 
 On hand at end of year. 
 
 Cash ; securities. 
 
Municipal Finanee in the Twelfth Census. 465 
 
 schedule vi. — combined statement oe total and pee. capita 
 
 revenue and expenditure oe general treasury 
 
 and sinking funds. 
 
 Balance on hand at beginning of year. 
 
 General treasury (see Schedule I). 
 
 Sinking funds (see Schedule V). 
 Revenue. 
 
 1. From sources other than loans and transfers from sinking funds. 
 
 a. General treasury (Schedule I, XIII). 
 
 b. Sinking funds. 
 
 Total revenue (Schedule V, I) ; less receipts from general 
 treasury (including interest on debt), (Schedule V, I, i, 
 and V, I, 2, a). 
 
 2. From loans (Schedules I, xiv). 
 Expenditure. 
 
 1. For ptirposes other than payment and purchase of debt and trans- 
 
 fers to sinking fund . 
 
 a. General treasurj' ; expenditure as given in Schedule II, XII ; 
 
 less interest on debt held in sinking fund. 
 
 b. Sinking funds ; expenditure as given in Schedule V, II, 3. 
 
 2. Expenditure for payment and purchase of debt. 
 
 a. General treasury (Schedule II, XIII). 
 
 b. Sinking funds (Schedule V, II, 2). 
 Balance at end of year. 
 
 General treasury (Schedule I). 
 Sinking funds (Schedule V). 
 
 30 
 
The Scope and Method of the Federal Census. 
 
 The Federal census of to-day presents many difficulties 
 with respect to the enumeration, tabulation and pre- 
 sentation of the varied data comprehended in the law 
 by which it is now governed, and in undertaking to 
 consider its scope and method, as at present outlined, it 
 is impossible for any one who has had any practical 
 experience in census work, and particularly in connec- 
 tion with the work of the United States census at either 
 of the last two enumerations, to refrain from finding 
 fault, at the very outset, with the temporary nature of 
 the system under which it is taken. 
 
 At the earlier enumerations there was not much reason 
 for making any special or permanent provisions for 
 carrying on the census work, involving, as it did up to 
 1850, nothing more than a simple enumeration of the 
 number of persons in each family according to their 
 color, sex and age, with the addition from time to time 
 of a few other details ; so that the conditions that pre- 
 vailed then, and the results to be attained, did not war- 
 rant any preparation beyond the temporary provisions 
 which were made for the work at each decennial period. 
 But, commencing with 1850, the method and scope of 
 the census were materially modified, and it compre- 
 hended at that and the two succeeding enumerations 
 not only a detailed statement of the name, age, sex, 
 color, nativity, occupation, education and physical 
 and mental condition of each person enumerated, but, 
 in addition, very nearly one hundred inquiries relating 
 to agriculture, industry, mortality, schools, libraries, 
 churches, newspapers and periodicals, and the valuation 
 and taxation of property. 
 
The Scope and Method of the Federal Ceyisus. 467 
 
 This extension of the scope and change in the methods, 
 but not the machinery, of the census (the marshals and 
 assistant marshals being still employed, as theretofore, to 
 make the enumeration), necessitated the organization of 
 a Census Office in the Department of the Interior at 
 Washington, from which the work of the enumeration 
 could be supervised and directed, and to which the 
 returns, when completed, could be sent for tabulation 
 and presentation. Theretofore the law had required that 
 abstracts, showing for tlie various civil divisions the 
 number of each class of persons called for by the census 
 act, should be made by the marshals from the original 
 returns and forwarded to the Secretary of State, for 
 publication in practically the same form as transmitted 
 by them. There was no necessity, therefore, prior to 
 1850 for a separate office at Washington to which should 
 be given the supervision of the census, but when the 
 scope of the decennial enumeration was broadened so as 
 to cover many subjects and to include many particulars, 
 and the duty of compiling the returns was taken from 
 the marshals and charged upon the authorities at Wash- 
 ington, the need of an office with a superintending head 
 to have direct control of the work was recognized by 
 Congress, and provision was made by the law of 1850 
 for the appointment of a superintendent of the census, 
 and, in effect, the establishment of a temporary Census 
 Office. 
 
 This office was called into existence at the commence- 
 ment of the enumeration (June i) in 1850 and i860 and 
 a few months prior to the enumeration in 1870, and was 
 disbanded upon the substantial completion of the work 
 at each census period. Between i860 and 1870, how- 
 ever, a clerk was retained in charge of the census 
 records, while between 1870 and 1880 there was not 
 
468 American Economic Association. 
 
 only a clerk retained, in the person of the former chief 
 clerk of the census office, but, in addition. General 
 Walker, who had been the superintendent of the ninth 
 census, by request of the Secretary of the Interior con- 
 tinued to serve in that capacity without pay and was, 
 therefore, in official charge of census matters and was 
 consulted with respect to the legislation which so 
 radically changed the method of taking the tenth census 
 and expanded its scope beyond all precedent. So, while 
 the census was still taken under a temporary system, the 
 threads of the census organization at the ninth census 
 were not lost in any essential particular, and some of the 
 experience gained and precedents established' at that 
 census were available and could be utilized, if need be, 
 in the work of the tenth census, taken under the super- 
 intendence of General Walker, and in accordance with 
 the general features of the plan recommended and advo- 
 cated by him for making it, following the popular senti 
 ment of the times, a centennial census. 
 
 The unfortunate conditions attending the completion 
 of the work of the tenth census, — the depleted state of 
 the census appropriation at an early stage of the work ; 
 the resignation of General Walker as superintendent in 
 less than a year and a half after the commencement of 
 the enumeration ; the subsequent illness and death of 
 Mr. Seaton, the former chief clerk, who succeeded him 
 as superintendent, and the abolition of the Census 
 Office early in 1885, although the publications of the 
 census were in no wise completed, — had a very great 
 influence in producing conditions which did not operate 
 to the advantage of the commencement of the work of the 
 eleventh census. The final completion and publication 
 of the reports of the tenth census extended very nearly 
 to the close of the period from 1880 to 1890, the last 
 
The Scope aud Method of the Federal Census. 469 
 
 volume hardly having been given to the public when 
 the preparatory work of the eleventh census was begun, 
 and, in fact, some of the subjects of inquiry, for which 
 a good deal of matter had been collected and prepared, 
 were finally abandoned and no results were ever printed. 
 
 The Census Office having been abolished meanwhile 
 and a census division established in its place, the remnant 
 of the census force was kept busy with the effort to 
 complete the publication of the census reports, and the 
 chief of this division, who afterwards became the census 
 clerk, had no time to pick up the threads in readiness 
 for the work of the eleventh census. This was not the 
 fault of the census clerk, however, but the inevitable 
 result of the temporary system under which he was com- 
 pelled to work. It is true, nevertheless, that the records 
 of the tenth census were not in good shape to be used 
 readily in connection with the preparatory work of the 
 eleventh census, and, as a matter of fact, consisted largely 
 of a " mass " of material, of great weight and bulk, 
 which had been moved from place to place, as each 
 branch of the work was closed up, until it finally found 
 a resting place in the depository of census matters in the 
 Department of the Interior building. This mass of 
 material, consisting principally of waste paper, contained 
 a few nuggets of census information but no "precedents" 
 upon which to base intelligent action, and required many 
 weeks of hard work on the part of several laborers be- 
 fore it could be put into condition for practical use, so 
 far as it had any real value in shaping the work of the 
 eleventh census. 
 
 It was not the original purpose to have the tenth cen- 
 sus duplicated, and yet the law of March i, 1889, under 
 which the eleventh census was taken, supplemented by 
 later legislation requiring information as to " farms. 
 
^.yo American Economic Association. 
 
 homes, and mortgages," resulted practically in as many 
 different subjects of inquiry and as many volumes con- 
 stituting the final report, but perhaps more nearly 
 statistical in their character and containing less his- 
 torical and technological matter. In effect, however, the 
 eleventh census was just as comprehensive as the tenth 
 and the work was carried on under practically the same 
 conditions of temporary organization, that is, an entirely 
 inadequate length of time in which to prepare for the 
 work, a more or less fitful life under varying political 
 conditions, a considerable but unavoidable delay in the 
 publication of the final reports, and a gradual contraction 
 from 25 divisions in the Census Office to a single census 
 division in the office of the Secretary of the Interior, and 
 finally to a single census clerk, guarding about the same 
 bulk of census " records. '' And the census soon to be 
 taken, the twelfth, is likely to comprehend very nearly 
 as many particulars, as there is very little reason to 
 suppose that the scope of the census will in reality be 
 lessened. 
 
 If the proposed legislation is finally effected,^ however, 
 the attempt will not be made to cover, as in 1880 and 
 1890, the entire range of subjects at one and the same 
 time, resulting in much perplexity and often times con- 
 fusion of effort, but the four most important subjects of 
 inquiry will be taken in hand first, at the time of the 
 decennial enumeration, and the less ui'gent, if not less 
 important, topics reserved until a later period. In this 
 proposal to distribute the work over the full period of 
 ten years, if need be, lies, moreover, the hope of the 
 twelfth ceusus. It would have been better to have had 
 an office established fully two years before the period of 
 enumeration, but failing in that, it will at least be an 
 
 ^ For the main provisions of the new law see appendix to this volume. 
 
The Scope and Method of the Federal Census. 471 
 
 improvement over its immediate predecessors to have 
 the decennial work limited to a few subjects, to be care- 
 fully and accurately enumerated and prepared for publi- 
 cation before any of the special subjects proposed shall 
 be investigated ; or, in other words, that none of these 
 special investigations shall be allowed to interfere, in 
 any way, with the early completion of what the bill 
 terms the " census reports " — those relating to the popu- 
 lation, agriculture, manufactures, and vital statistics of 
 the country. 
 
 It is apparent from what has been said that, while the 
 comparatively simple decennial enumeration of popu- 
 lation instituted in 1790 has expanded, in recent enume- 
 rations, into an extremely comprehensive census, so far 
 as the number and variety of subjects considered are 
 concerned, and in this aspect of the case has kept 
 fully abreast of the great increase in the population of 
 our country and the wonderful development of its re- 
 sources, yet the system under which the census has been 
 taken, even though it may have provided adequately, 
 perhaps, for the increased number of the subjects to be 
 investigated in point of money and force to do the work, 
 has not been perfected along the lines which would pro- 
 vide sufficient time for the necessary preparations and 
 for the continuous services of a force of experts trained 
 at least in the practical work of census taking. 
 
 In these two very important particulars, — lack of 
 time to prepare for the work and lack of a trained force 
 to do the work, — the census legislation, in recent years 
 especially, has been sadly deficient, and it is largely on 
 account of these two things that the effectiveness of 
 census work has been lessened and its accuracy and 
 reliability questioned. All the faults of the census, par- 
 ticularly at the last two enumerations, aside from the 
 
472 Americayi Economic Association. 
 
 faults which are inherent in the census itself, can safely 
 be set down to these two causes, and until this condition 
 of affairs is remedied, the credibility of the Federal 
 census will be doubted and criticisms made which can 
 not be successfully refuted. And still at the same time, 
 it must be remembered, no one official or set of officials 
 can be held responsible. There is no question as to the 
 integrity of the officials who have been charged with 
 the prosecution of the work, nor can the conscientious- 
 ness of their efforts, working under such a system, be 
 doubted for a moment. And unless this point is made 
 clear beforehand, that the sj'stem is mainly at fault, 
 criticism of the census, no matter by whom or for what 
 purpose, is not fair, especially when that criticism, how- 
 ever just, carries with it an implied, if not always ex- 
 pressed, criticism of the men charged with the execu- 
 tion of the work, who are thus made responsible for 
 all the imperfections of the census of whatever kind. 
 
 It should also be borne in mind that the officials 
 charged with the prosecution of the census have had 
 no hand, as a rule, in shaping the legislation which 
 governed their work, and although some things from the 
 standpoint of practical experience might have sug- 
 gested themselves, there was no time after their appoint- 
 ment to effect any material change in the census act. 
 The law specifies certain things to be done and indi- 
 cates the machinery with which it shall be accom- 
 plished, and the superintendent, who has had no voice 
 in molding the law, is compelled to carry out its man- 
 dates to the best of his ability, with the material at 
 hand, and with little time in which to make his prepara- 
 tions for accomplishing the truly herculean task of tak- 
 ing a census of the population, wealth, and industry of 
 the country, as the law expressly provides. 
 
The Scope and Method of the Federal Census. 473 
 
 The real work of the census consists of the three 
 grand divisions of enumeration, tabulation and presen- 
 tation, comprehending, first, the collection of the data 
 by the various agencies employed, whether enumerators, 
 special agents, or by correspondence ; second, its classi- 
 fication and arrangement in accordance with well- 
 matured plans and methods ; and third, its proper analy- 
 sis and presentation within a reasonable length of time 
 after the completion of the actual field work. These 
 three divisions of the census work, as now projected, 
 involve, however, an amount of preparatory work well- 
 nigh beyond the power of any one man, however well 
 trained he may be in census methods and without re- 
 ference to the degree of zeal and enthusiasm with which 
 he may enter upon his work. And this is particularly 
 true, when the limited time that is given for prepara- 
 tions and the conditions under which it must be prose- 
 cuted are considered. The requirements of the eleventh 
 census in these particulars afford sufficient data from 
 which may be deduced the probable conditions that will 
 obtain with respect to the preparatory work of the 
 twelfth census. 
 
 The eleventh census was taken under the provisions 
 of the act approved March i, 1889, which directed that 
 a census of the population, wealth, and industry of the 
 country should be taken as of June i, iSqo, and that for 
 this purpose a Census Office should be established in the 
 Department of the Interior, and a superintendent of the 
 census appointed by the President, to have, under the 
 direction of the Secretary of the Interior, the superin- 
 tendence and direction of the census work. The first 
 step in the organization of this office was not taken, 
 however, until very nearly two months later by the 
 appointment on April 17, 1889, of Hon. Robert P. Porter 
 
474 Ainericaii Economic Association . 
 
 as superintendent of the census. This gave a little more 
 than thirteen months in whicli to prepare for the work 
 of the eleventh census, or substantially the same length 
 of time as was given for preparations at the tenth cen- 
 sus, which it followed very closely, both in scope and 
 methods. 
 
 When Ylx. Porter came to Washington to begin his 
 preliminary work, there remained, as already stated, but 
 a single officer out of all the brilliant array of chiefs and 
 experts who had been gathered together by General 
 Walker in 1880 and who had contributed so fully and 
 freely of their knowledge and attainments to make that 
 census, with its many varied and specialized features, 
 such an encyclopaedic affair. This legal holdover, 
 known in the office of the Secretary of the Interior as 
 the " census clerk," was the only person, therefore, from 
 whom any specific information could be obtained as to 
 the condition of the records and papers relating to that 
 census, which might have a bearing upon the work of 
 the eleventh census. 
 
 Starting then with but a single clerk, the superin- 
 tendent of the census had to begin his work at the bot- 
 tom, and with but few records and no precedents to 
 guide him, he had not only to seek persons of experi- 
 ence to assist him, but also to find temporary quarters 
 and to make contracts for suitable buildings, to be 
 erected in time for the census operations, in which to 
 house the millions of schedules and blanks to be printed 
 and used by a small army of enumerators and agents, 
 and in which further to provide adequate quarters for a 
 somewhat smaller, but no less industrious body of clerks 
 soon to be called to make the great count of population 
 and to compile all the varied statistics comprehended by 
 the census act. These entirely preliminary matters at- 
 
The Scope and Method of the Federal Census. 475 
 
 tended to, his next duty was to devote his energies to 
 the real work of preparing for the decennial enumera- 
 tion — the house-to-house canvass, — involving the divi- 
 sion of the country into 175 supervisors districts, one or 
 more to each state or territory ; to find suitable persons 
 to be recommended by the Secretary of the Interior for 
 appointment by the President as supervisors ; to in- 
 struct the supervisors, when appointed, in the duties re- 
 quired of them under the census law ; to institute the 
 geographical work of the census, by which the division 
 by each supervisor of his district into subdivisions con- 
 venient for enumeration, very nearly 50,000 in number, 
 .and subject to the superintendent's final approval, could 
 be properly and intelligently scrutinized, and to deter- 
 mine, so far as possible, the boundaries of the many 
 thousands of minor civil divisions of varying character 
 and organization, for which a separate return of popula- 
 tion should properly be made ; to approve the lists of 
 persons selected by the several supervisors to act as 
 enumerators within their respective divisions ; to fix in 
 advance the rates of compensation of enumerators, ac- 
 cording to the nature of tlie region to be canvassed, the 
 density or sparseness of settlement, or other equally 
 pertinent considerations ; to prepare the various sched- 
 ules and blanks to be used by the enumerators in their 
 work, and the detailed instructions coircerning the man- 
 ner in which they should be filled ; to provide properly 
 for sending these schedules, blanks, and instructions, 
 when printed, and numbering upwards of 25,000,000 in 
 all, in sufficient quantities to meet every requirement of 
 the enumeration, and in ample season to have the work 
 commenced on the first Monday in June in every part of 
 the three million or more square miles of territory to be 
 canvassed ; in short, to bring into active operation 
 
476 American Economic Association. 
 
 every agency and resource necessary to a prompt and 
 thorough canvass of the conntry, conducted in such a 
 manner as to insure a substantially accurate and com- 
 plete record by the enumerators with respect to the 
 population, the products of agriculture and of manu- 
 factures, the statistics of mortality, the afHicted classes, 
 and of crime, pauperism, and benevolence, and, finally^ 
 the special record of service required concerning the 
 Union survivors of the civil war. But this was not his 
 whole duty. While preparing for the general enumera- 
 tion, he had to receive and consider thousands of appli- 
 cations, presented in person and by pro.xy, for positions 
 in the census, and to devise a system of examination by 
 which their general fitness could be determined ; to ex- 
 amine the many projects and propositions brought to 
 his attention, not contemplated, perhaps, by the census, 
 act in specific terms, but possessed of sufficient merit to 
 warrant careful consideration under the discretionary 
 power given to the Secretary of the Interior over the 
 form of the schedules of inquiries to be by him pre- 
 scribed ; and, in addition, to outline the plan and the 
 methods to be pursued in conducting the many special 
 branches of census inquir}', which were to be carried on 
 without reference to the general enumerators, and many 
 of which, not being dependent upon the decennial 
 period, could be instituted at once ; that is to say, com- 
 plete statistics concerning the fisheries, mines and min- 
 ing, education, churches, insurance, wealth, debt and 
 taxation, the various agencies of transportation, and the 
 recorded indebtedness of private corporations and indi- 
 viduals, besides a special enumeration of all Indians, 
 taxed and not taxed, living within the jurisdiction of 
 the United vStates, and a separate census of the popula- 
 tion, wealth, and resources of Alaska. 
 
The Scope and Method of the Federal Census. ^ii 
 
 It should be remembered, too, that due consideration 
 for the demands of statistical science required that every 
 preparation for the general enumeration or for the prose- 
 cution of the special features should be made with refer- 
 ence to the tabulation and presentation of the material 
 collected, in order that the results of the census, and the 
 conclusions to be derived from them, should not rest on 
 a false basis, but present a correct and true statement of 
 the conditions of population, wealth and industry as they 
 existed at the decennial period. 
 
 This, in brief, was the work " cut out " for the super- 
 intendent of the eleventh census to provide and prepare 
 for in thirteen months, and from this summary it is easy 
 to realize that the task that is likel}- to be set for the 
 director of the twelfth census cannot differ much from 
 what was actually required in connection with the pre- 
 liminary work of the ele\'enth census. The time given 
 for preparations for the twelfth census cannot much 
 exceed that allowed at the tenth and eleventh censuses, 
 and the amount of preparatory work to be done is, for 
 all practical purposes, equal to that necessary to the 
 eleventh, with the exception that the director will not 
 have quite so many subjects over which to divide his 
 time and attention, and that for no subject of investiga- 
 tion, as now contemplated, will it be necessary to com- 
 mence the field work prior to the time of the general 
 enumeration ; but the detail of preparation for the decen- 
 nial work, involving the house-to-house canvass, will not 
 be lessened in any degree, and will severely tax all the 
 energy and application of which the human frame is 
 capable. Two years is none too long for making the 
 necessary preparations, but, unfortunately, this is out of 
 the question with respect to the work of the twelfth 
 census, and barely half that period will remain available 
 
478 American Ecoiiomic Association. 
 
 after the necessary organization has been effected. To 
 institute the work of the census under such conditions is 
 indeed a great task, and one before which, in the merest 
 contemplation of the possibilities of disaster, the strongest 
 man, in vigor and equipment, may well quail. 
 
 Realizing, then, the conditions under which the work 
 must be entered upon, requiring haste in every prepara- 
 tion, it is at least a consolation to know that relief is 
 promised in two directions, first, in the limited number 
 of subjects to be canvassed at the decennial period, as 
 already stated, and second, in the better organization 
 proposed in the way of securing to the director the 
 services of an assistant director, who shall be an experi- 
 enced, practical statistician, and of five chief statisticians, 
 who shall be persons of known and tried experience in 
 statistical work. 
 
 These changes are in the right direction. They 
 affect not only the work of the director of the census, 
 in the way of lightening his preliminary duties and 
 giving him the chance to secure the services of expert 
 assistants, but the limitation of subjects to be investi- 
 gated has a very great bearing upon the work of the 
 general enumerators. They should be charged with 
 but a few matters, — the fewer the better, under present 
 conditions, — if the requirements of the house-to-house 
 canvass are to be fulfilled intelligently and with due 
 regard to the accuracy and completeness of the answers 
 to be returned. At the eleventh census, the majority of 
 the enumerators were charged with the duty of return- 
 ing answers to very nearly seven hundred inquiries or 
 details concerning the general population, the products 
 of agriculture and manufactures, the decedents, the defec- 
 tive, dependent and delinquent classes, and the Union 
 survivors of the civil war. Under the provisions of the 
 
The Scope and Method of the Federal Ce7isus. 479 
 
 census act, the inquiries relating to manufactures could 
 be withdrawn from the general enumerators in the 
 cities and important manufacturing centers, while those 
 relating to mortality could also be withdrawn in states 
 and cities where a fairly satisfactory system of registra- 
 tion was in vogue. Again, too, the inquiries concerning 
 agriculture would not be particularly applicable in 
 closely-settled districts, so that the burden of the work 
 in this respect would not have much effect upon the 
 enumerators in such areas. But making allowances for 
 all these considerations, the fact still remains that in 
 very much more than one-half of the districts, the num- 
 ber of possible inquiries to be made by the enumerators 
 was very nearly seven hundred. The policy of the 
 census ofScials is to lighten the work of the general 
 enumerator, so far as the law will permit and the exi- 
 gencies of the case will allow, and the principle, estab- 
 lished by the law of March 3, 1879, of employing 
 experts and special agents without regard to locality to 
 collect the data not directly dependent upon the house- 
 to-house enumeration, was made use of to a considerably 
 greater extent in 1890 than in 1880, with a correspond- 
 ing increase in accuracy and more complete details 
 secured ; and it is a source of gratification to know that 
 under the legislation proposed for the coming census, a 
 much less number of inquiries will have to be asked, as 
 a rule, by the enumerators charged with the decennial 
 canvass to be made as of June i, 1900. 
 
 The provision for three hundred supervisors in 1900 
 is another change in the right direction. There were 
 one hundred and fifty supervisors at the census of 1880- 
 and one hundred and seventy-five at the census of 1890, 
 or, on the average, about one supervisor to each third of a 
 million inhabitants ; so that no gain was made in this 
 
480 American Economic Association. 
 
 respect in 1890 over 1880, but with the increased num- 
 ber proposed for the census of 1900, there will be, on the 
 basis of 77,000,000 inhabitants, an average of one super- 
 visor to each quarter of a million persons to be enumerated. 
 This means, after allowing for the appointment under 
 the law of a supervisor for each state and territory 
 where the population will either fall below or not much 
 exceed a quarter of a million, say in twelve or fifteen 
 instances in all, the opportunity to divide the remainder 
 of the country into comparatively compact districts, 
 with a relatively small number of inhabitants in most 
 cases. It will also enable the director, if he so desires, 
 to have the enumeration of all cities of considerable 
 size made under the immediate supervision of a resident 
 supervisor especially appointed for that purpose, and, 
 furthermore, to have the work carried on under his di- 
 rection in co-operation with the city oificials, so that 
 there shall be no reason why the canvass may not be 
 made as complete and satisfactory to all parties con- 
 cerned as the nature of the work and existing conditions 
 will permit. Such an arrangement, too, will largely 
 overcome the fault at preceding censuses, owing to the 
 limited number of supervisors, of having, with few ex- 
 ceptions, no one in direct charge of the enumerators 
 employed in taking tlie census of the larger cities, and 
 will obviate the necessity, as has often been suggested, 
 of designating one of the enumerators, in the interest of 
 an accurate census, to act as chief enumerator or assist- 
 ant to the supervisor, to have the immediate charge of 
 the work in such cities where the supervisor's district 
 comprises more territory than that embraced in a single 
 city, and of which the supervisor may not be a resident 
 or have therein his headquarters. Anything that re- 
 duces the size of the district to be supervised and con- 
 
The Scope and Method of the Federal Census. 481 
 
 centrates the efforts of the supervisor over compact and 
 well-defined areas is an improvement and will have a 
 tendency, at least, to ensure better and more complete 
 returns. 
 
 With the larger number of supervisors' districts, re- 
 sulting in a somewhat smaller number of enumeration 
 districts, on the whole, to be handled by a single super- 
 visor, will also come the benefit of the greater local 
 knowledge on the part of the supervisor of the territory 
 under his jurisdiction ; a better subdivision, in conjunc- 
 tion with the census officials, of the territory into 
 enumeration districts ; a more intimate acquaintance 
 with the minor civil divisions included in each enumer- 
 ation district for which a separate return of population 
 is desirable ; more direct and personal contact with the 
 enumerators selected and appointed by him in his dis- 
 trict ; and the opportunity, if time will allow, for insti- 
 tuting, without great expense, some preliminary test for 
 determining the general fitness of the applicants for 
 appointment as enumerators and their knowledge of and 
 familiarity with the printed instructions to be followed 
 in the prosecution of the decennial work. 
 
 The increase in the number of supervisors' districts 
 does not mean necessarily any increase in the number of 
 enumeration districts. The limit as to size proposed for 
 an enumeration district in 1900 is the same as at the 
 censuses of 1880 and 1890, namely, not to exceed 4,000 
 inhabitants, to be determined at the census of 1900 
 according to estimates based upon the last census or 
 other reliable information. On the basis of the number 
 of regular enumerators' at the last census, or, in round 
 
 ' Excluding " institution " enumerators, that is, those appointed for 
 the pupose of enumerating the population in the large institutions of 
 the country, — generally the clerk or other official having access to the 
 
482 American Economic Association. 
 
 numbers, 43,500, and assuming an aggregate popula- 
 tion in June, 1900, of 77,000,000, the average size of 
 the districts would be less than 1,800 ; if, on the 
 other hand, it were possible to equalize the districts so 
 that they should average, approximately, 2,500 persons, 
 but 30,800 enumerators would be needed ; or if the 
 average is raised to 3,000 there would be between 
 25,000 and 26,000 ; and if the full limit of 4,000 is nearly 
 maintained, there would be less than 20,000 enumera- 
 tors in all. So that it is easy to see that with the 
 relatively large increase in the number of supervisors 
 and a decrease, if anything, in the number of enumera- 
 tors, if a fair average population to an euumeration 
 district is maintained, much closer supervision of the 
 work of the enumerators can be had with correspond- 
 ingly better results, if the necessary and proper pro- 
 visions are made therefor. In the direction of a better 
 and more intimate acquaintance with the character- 
 istics of the district to be canvassed, and the conse- 
 quent designation to be made beforehand and the specific 
 instructions given to each enumerator concerning the 
 areas within his enumeration district for which the popu- 
 lation should be separately stated, this provision of the 
 law governing the work of the twelfth census is a marked 
 advance over its predecessor. And in the matter of 
 securing a correct return of the population of the lesser 
 divisions of the country, that is, the small incorporated 
 cities, villages and places included within the areas of 
 towns and townships, and often bearing the same name 
 as the town or township of which it forms a part, there 
 seems every reason to expect much better results than 
 
 records of such institutions,— and the small number appointed to re- 
 enumerate districts where the first enumeration was incomplete or 
 improperly done. 
 
The Scope and Method of the Federal Census. 483 
 
 were possible under the conditions that obtained at the 
 census of 1890. There is not much more time, it is 
 true, but with the larger number of supervisors and the 
 relatively smaller districts to be supervised, there should 
 be considerable improvement in this respect. If such 
 should prove to be the case, in fact, it will be a source of 
 gratification in more ways than one. No more difficult 
 task was imposed upon the officials at Washington at the 
 last census than to determine from the returns of the 
 enumerators the correct population of the minor civil 
 divisions of the country, the Census Office in hundreds 
 of cases being compelled to make the statement in the 
 table of population by minor civil divisions that the 
 population of the specified area was not returned sepa- 
 rately from that of the town or tov/nship of which it 
 formed a part. The failure on the part of many of the 
 enumerators to make their return of population in such 
 a manner as to enable the Census Office to determine 
 the correct number of persons living within these smaller 
 areas on June i, 1890, resulted in much confusion and 
 many legal complications, and this, too, in spite of the 
 fact that an attempt was made by the Census Office after 
 the completion of the enumeration to supplement the 
 work of the enumerators by means of correspondence 
 with the local officers and by sending lists of persons 
 enumerated for their guidance, in an effort to determine 
 these populations, at an expenditure of several thousand 
 dollars and much labor, but oftentimes with very poor 
 success. These omissions were often a source of much 
 annoyance and trouble, especially in'^those cases where 
 state law made it obligatory in the absence of definite 
 information through their own state or local censuses, 
 to have the Federal census taken as the basis in fixing 
 the population of certain areas. This was notably the 
 
484 American Economic Association. 
 
 case in New York state where the excise law provided 
 that the amount of the tax should be determined in pro- 
 portion to population, under a classification fixed by the 
 excise law, but based upon the return of population for 
 such areas as shown by the last Federal census (that of 
 1890). It happened, however, that in New York the 
 population of very many of the villages, often having 
 the same name as the towns in which they were situated, 
 was not separately stated in the report of the Federal 
 census, and as under the law they could not be otherwise 
 determined, a much smaller excise tax was collected than 
 was actually allowable, but which the courts, after much 
 litigation and delay, decided could not be exacted, and 
 which resulted in the loss to the state and municipali- 
 ties affected of thousands of dollars of revenue from this 
 source. This is but a single instance, with which 
 the writer is personally conversant, but there is no 
 doubt that much trouble and possibly litigation were 
 occasioned in other directions from the failure of the 
 census enumerators so to make their returns as to render 
 such omissions impossible. It was not possible to have 
 prevented this condition of affairs through the efforts 
 and instructions of the census superintendent and his 
 assistants as a part of the preliminary preparations for 
 the enumeration, as the time was so limited that, in 
 many cases, the subdivision of districts by supervisors, 
 which should have received careful scrutiny and exam- 
 ination before acceptance, had to be approved with little 
 or no examination, and in some cases by telegraph with- 
 out any examination whatever; and this involved, in 
 such cases, as a matter of course, the acceptance of the 
 lists of enumerators designated by the supervisors with- 
 out any opportunity on the part of the census officials to 
 determine, in the most cursory way, their general 
 
The Scope and Method of the Federal Census. 485 
 
 capacity for the work. Some of these conditions are 
 likely to occur at the census of 1900, through lack of 
 time, as in 1880 and 1890, but heroic effort should be 
 made by the director of the census to overcome, so far 
 as possible, these particular deficiencies in the enumera- 
 tion ; and this is all the more necessary, inasmuch as the 
 proposed bill provides that the subdivisions established 
 for the purposes of the enumeration shall be declared 
 and the boundaries fixed by the Director of the Census, 
 after consultation with the several supervisors of census. 
 The legislation proposed for the twelfth census, in 
 addition to limiting the decennial work to four subjects, 
 defines the topics concerning which inquiry shall be 
 made, but gives the director of the census discretionary 
 power as to the number and form of the inquiries neces- 
 sary to secure the desired information. In view of the 
 limited time in which to prepare for the work, and the 
 desirability of having a reasonably prompt publication 
 of the results, this provision seems fair and proper, as 
 without some restriction relative to the scope of the in- 
 quiries to be made, the tendency is always to ask too 
 much, to undertake too elaborate an inquiry, for fear pos- 
 sibly that in the hurry of preparation something will be 
 left out that upon later consideration may be deemed 
 essential to the completeness of the topic under investi- 
 gation. In this way many useless data are apt to be 
 collected, which it is impossible properly to classify and 
 reduce to practical form, with any ordinary expenditure 
 of time and money. It is in the interest of accu- 
 rate results, therefore, to limit the scope of the in- 
 quiries to be made by the census enumerators, as under 
 the best of conditions it is difficult to prepare the instruc- 
 tions beforehand so as to meet every contingency of 
 the work and to answer every query which may arise in 
 
486 American Economic Association. 
 
 the mind of the enumerator. Indeed, it is hard to get 
 thoroughly intelligent and efficient persons to act as 
 enumerators, and the simpler the work is made and the 
 fewer the inquiries asked, the better will be the results 
 achieved. The experience of the past teaches that the 
 amount of work required, the length of time emploj'ed, 
 and the usually inadequate compensation allowed have 
 had a tendency to deter the better class of persons from 
 undertaking this work, and the results of the census 
 have had to suffer for these reasons. This is not alone 
 true of this country, but a similar experience has been 
 reported in connection with the census of Great Britain. 
 The brief period of employment and small compensation 
 have operated there in the same direction as here, and 
 the persons appointed as enumerators have not averaged 
 any better than in this country, although they have 
 there a nucleus force to supervise the work, in the 
 registrars and sub-registrars, whose business it is to deal 
 with records and who have some apprehension of the 
 difficulties in the way of getting complete returns 
 through the ordinary census channels and a thorough 
 appreciation of the desirability of having the services of 
 intelligent and painstaking persons to do the actual 
 work of enumeration. In spite of this, however, the 
 work of securing competent enumerators has not been 
 altogether successful, and in many cases, as in this 
 country, the offices liave gone begging and have been 
 filled more from reasons of charity than from the abil- 
 ity of the persons selected properly to do the work. 
 In this country, attempts have been made to make 
 the pay better, and increases have been made at each 
 census, but these increases are not wholly based upon 
 data derived from the records of the preceding cen- 
 suses, as would be the case if a permanent office 
 
The Scope and Method of the Federal Census. 487 
 
 was in existence and there was time in which care- 
 fully to apportion the various rates, with a full knowl- 
 edge of the characteristics of the several districts and 
 the difficulties to be met in the enumeration in the 
 various sections of the country. Per diem rates of pay 
 offer the only solution of these dif&culties, but they are 
 not possible now, perhaps, on account of the lack of 
 time in which to provide the necessary checks and safe- 
 guards against delays, instituted solely for the purpose 
 of prolonging the work with a view of increasing the 
 total amount of compensation to be received. These 
 checks and safeguards would increase the cost of super- 
 vision, it is true, but it would simplify the work in 
 every way, and would have the further advantage of 
 offering beforehand a fair day's pay for an honest day's 
 work and, if proper means were devised to prevent, 
 would not result in a wholesale swindling of the gov- 
 ernment. I doubt, too, if the cost of this additional 
 supervision would be much greater than will now be 
 the case, if the supervisors are charged with the duty of 
 examining the returns on the various census schedules, 
 as the bill now pending contemplates, in order to deter- 
 mine the correctness of the accounts of the enumerators, 
 to be certified to by said supervisors and to be accepted 
 and paid by the Director of the Census upon such certi- 
 fication, without any verification ori the part of the cen- 
 tral office at Washington. It means the count of popu- 
 lation in each enumeration district by the supervisor 
 thereof, and a summary, in each case, of the number of 
 deaths returned and of farms and establishments of in- 
 dustry enumerated, in order to verify the statements of 
 the enumerators in each of these particulars. In this 
 connection, too, it should be borne in mind that the 
 supervisors of census, as a rule, have had no experience 
 
488 American Economic Association. 
 
 in census work, and are unaccustomed to the great rush 
 of work that is inevitable, under present conditions, at 
 the decennial period. They, too, need supervision and 
 guidance, and with the multiplicity of inquiries likely 
 to be made of them by the enumerators of their several 
 districts will be kept fully occupied during the full 
 period of the enumeration and cannot take up the work 
 of examining the returns until the canvass of their dis- 
 trict is substantially completed. If per diem rates of 
 pay could be safely established throughout the country, 
 the supervisors would be alone charged with the duty 
 of examining the enumerators' returns solely with refer- 
 ence to the completeness of the canvass made, and the 
 census officials at Washington could readily determine 
 whether the time occupied in the enumeration was a 
 fair average in accordance with similar work done in 
 any particular section of the country, and it would only 
 be in those cases where, from the small amount of work 
 performed and the relatively long time consumed, it 
 was manifest the work had been unnecessarily pro- 
 longed that the payment of the enumerators' accounts 
 would have to be suspended for a more careful examina- 
 tion and explanation. 
 
 Upon the completion of the enumeration and the re- 
 ceipt of the schedules at Washington, the work of tabu- 
 lation begins, and for this purpose a large clerical force 
 must be organized and trained. Here again the tempo- 
 rary nature of the census system operates to the disad- 
 vantage of the work and entails a great burden upon 
 the census superintendent in the selection from a host 
 of applicants of the force necessary to perform all the 
 various duties essential to the rapid and systematic com- 
 pilation of the census returns. At the census of 1870 
 the clerical force was secured through an " office " ex- 
 
The Scope and Method of the Federal Census. 489 
 
 amination instituted by the superintendent of the cen- 
 sus, but at the census of 1880 no such examination 
 was required and the clerks were selected without any 
 preliminary test of their general fitness for the work. 
 At the census of 1890, although the civil service rules and 
 regulations covered the clerical force of the executive de- 
 partments of the government, the census clerks and em- 
 ployees were not included, but their examination was 
 left to the discretion of the Secretary of the Interior, 
 and entrance to the work of the census was had by 
 means of an examination conducted in the Census Of- 
 fice by a board of examiners appointed by the Secretary 
 of the Interior. A somewhat similar provision is pro- 
 posed to govern the clerical appointments for the cen- 
 sus of 1900, but the stipulation is made that the exami- 
 nation to be prescribed, if any, shall have reference 
 solely to the fitness of the applicant to perform the 
 duties of the position to which he seeks appointment. 
 This involves, as a matter of course, a world of labor on 
 the part of the director of the census in meeting the 
 demands for employment, usually far in excess of the 
 needs of the service, at a time when his entire energies 
 should be concentrated on the work of preparing for 
 the decennial enumeration ; but this is necessary, it is 
 claimed, because of the temporary nature of the service 
 to be rendered and the difficulty which would be ex- 
 perienced by the civil service commission in supplying 
 quickly from their eligible lists, under any system of 
 state apportionment, the necessary force to do the work, 
 covering a limited period only. It is not the purpose, 
 however, to discuss the general question of the relative 
 merits or demerits of the civil service system as applied 
 to the employees of the permanent offices of the govern- 
 ment, nor does the writer believe that it is only possible 
 
490 American Economic Association. 
 
 to secure good and thoroughly efficient clerks through 
 the medium of the civil service law. At the census of 
 1890, the examination prescribed by the census office 
 examiners was a fairly good test of the general fitness 
 and ability of applicants to do the work for which their 
 services were needed, but the point is clear that the re- 
 ception by the superintendent of the applicants, and 
 the hearing of their claims for preferment, took much 
 valuable time which, under different conditions, might 
 have been devoted to the more important duties of pre- 
 paring for the work of enumeration and tabulation, 
 operating to the general advantage of the census itself 
 and to the physical relief of the superintendent. 
 
 In compiling the returns of the eleventh census, im- 
 proved methods of tabulation were used, wherever prac- 
 ticable, and in the tabulation of what may be termed 
 the " individual " statistics, that is, those relating to the 
 living population, the decedents, the afflicted classes 
 (deaf and dumb, blind, insane, feeble-minded, etc.), in- 
 mates of benevolent institutions, paupers, and criminals, 
 the principle of using a " card," representing the indi- 
 vidual as the unit of tabulation, was recognized for the 
 first time in the Federal census. At the censuses of 
 1870 and 1880 the tallying system was used, by which 
 the various details of color, sex, age, place of birth, 
 parentage, occupation, etc., were tabulated direct from 
 the original schedules upon tally sheets, singly or in 
 such combination as could be readily obtained by the 
 tally method. But the correlation of data possible 
 under this method of tabulation, particularly if the 
 classifications were at all extended, was exceedingly 
 limited, even with the mechanical extension of the 
 tallying method devised by Colonel Seaton and used in 
 the ninth and tenth censuses ; and it was largely on ac- 
 
The Scope and Method of the Federal Census. 49 1 
 
 count of these limitations that experiments were under- 
 taken which finally resirlted in the electric tabulating 
 system, invented by Mr. Herman Hollerith, and used 
 in the work of the eleventh census in compiling the 
 statistics of population, mortality, and of crime, pauper- 
 ism, and benevolence. By the use of the Hollerith sys- 
 tem of tabulation, all the information relating to each 
 individual returned on the various schedules of inquiry 
 was recorded on a manila card by means of holes me- 
 chanically punched therein, and these cards were then 
 successively sorted and counted on the electric tabulat- 
 ing machines, in order to produce the various combina- 
 tions of facts needed to make the statistical presenta- 
 tion of the data secured as complete and comprehensive 
 as seemed in any way desirable. In the compilation of 
 the statistics relating to the afflicted classes, and the 
 population of Alaska, the card system of tabulation was 
 also used, but the information was recorded on the card 
 by written symbols and the cards were then sorted and 
 counted by hand, as the limited number of persons in- 
 volved did not warrant the use of the electric system of 
 tabulation. In the other branches of the work, the re- 
 turns related principally to the establishment and not 
 the individual, and only required to be aggregated for 
 each of the various areas and industries or in special 
 classifications of which presentation was made in the 
 final report. 
 
 If a criticism is made of the work of the eleventh 
 census, in the matter of the tabulation and presentation 
 of the returns, it would be perfectly fair and proper to 
 say that, to a certain extent, perhaps, there is a lack of 
 continuity of effort as compared with preceding censuses, 
 and that, in certain particulars, there is a lack of co- 
 ordination in the work of the census itself. These 
 
492 American Economic Association. 
 
 deficiencies, wherever they appear, are chargeable, how- 
 ever, largely to the conditions under which the work was 
 carried on, and not to any lack of effort or desire on the 
 part of the census officials to remedy them. Each cen- 
 sus is a law unto itself, and from the exigencies of the 
 case each division of the census work is conducted 
 largely without reference to the other branches of the 
 work. The first lack arises from the fact that the basis 
 of the classifications used at the preceding census has 
 not been preserved and, aside from the published results, 
 there are no records available by which it is possible to 
 make an intelligent effort to secure exact comparison 
 with the results of preceding censuses. The second 
 lack is due to the fact that, in the hurry and worry of 
 preparation for the great decennial work, there is no 
 time, so to speak, for unifying the varied work of the 
 census, but each branch has to be entrusted to some one 
 more or less expert in such matters, with no one, aside 
 from the overworked superintendent himself, to hold 
 the reins and guide the great census machine throiigh 
 the tortuous channels of enumeration and tabulation to 
 the final goal of publication. After the completion of 
 the field work, even, the congested condition of affairs 
 in the Census Office, produced by the attempt to cover 
 fifteen or twenty distinct subjects of investigation at one 
 and the same time and to tabulate and produce the results 
 simultaneously, does not admit of thoroughly methodi- 
 cal prosecution of the work such as would naturally be 
 expected to proceed from a stable basis of continuous 
 work and organization, particularly with reference to 
 the careful unification, under the immediate direction of 
 the superintendent, of all the results of the census, 
 wherever such unification was possible and desirable. 
 The further point should not be lost sight of, that the 
 
The Scope and Method of the Federal Cetisus. 493 
 
 chief effort of a Census Office loaded down witli a multi- 
 tude of subjects of inquiry, as was the case in 1890, is to 
 complete the work of tabulation and to get the results 
 in the hands of the public at as earl}- a day as possible. 
 Under these conditions of haste, there is little chance 
 for truly scientific work, and the delays that are inevi- 
 table, so far as the final publications are concerned, 
 must be charged to the system and not to the officials 
 entrusted with the work. Every effort is made by them 
 to get the results before the public, and at the eleventh 
 census this was largely accomplished at a comparatively 
 early period by the use of the census bulletin, in which 
 all the essential leading facts of that census were issued 
 as fast as available, and many months in advance of the 
 publication of the large quarto volumes containing all 
 the minor details comprehended by the various presen- 
 tations. 
 
 The better provision made for securing to the direc- 
 tor of the census the services of expert statisticians and 
 the distribution of the work contemplated by the pro- 
 posed bill should have, if properly carried out, a marked 
 effect upon the census in the particulars just noted, but 
 the real remedy for existing evils and delays in census 
 work is a permanent Census Office, properly equipped 
 and administered, and working in harmony and in con- 
 junction, so far as may be, with all related interests. 
 The statistics gathered in this country through gover- 
 mental agencies, national and state, and the minute- 
 ness of detail entered into, have excited the wonder of 
 the world. Deficient as we undoubtedly are in registra- 
 tion statistics covering the entire country, still in almost 
 every other field of statistical inquiry, investigation has 
 not stopped at simple facts, but elaborate presentation 
 of the most valuable data has been made, and the 
 
494 American Econotnic Association. 
 
 general credibilit)' of such statistics has not been ques- 
 tioned, because they are, in the main, the product of 
 statistical oflfices permanently organized and thoroughly 
 equipped to do efficient work. And until the census is 
 put on the same basis of permanency and efficiency, the 
 same precision of methods and generally-accepted belief 
 in the substantial accuracy of the results will not be 
 attained and ought not to be expected. 
 
 William C. Hunt. 
 
 U. S. Depai-iment of Labor. 
 
EXTRACTS FROM LETTERvS. 
 
 In the Committee's report introductory to this series 
 of papers, reference is made to an issue of a circular 
 letter' to members of the Association in regard to criti- 
 cism of the last census and recommendations for future 
 inquiries. As stated, the circular letter was not success- 
 ful. Only about sixty replies were received. It has 
 not been thought worth while to make any summary of 
 the answers to the first three questions, but in the 
 answers to the question : Is there any special informa- 
 tion which you think might be furnished by the twelfth 
 census and which is not in the eleventh ? there are sug- 
 gestions which, although in many cases made also in 
 some one of the papers, have been summarized in the 
 following pages. One exception has been made to this 
 treatment, in the printing of the answer of Mr. F. I/. 
 Hoifman in full. This contribution is so complete and 
 suggestive that it does not bear condensation. 
 
 Additional age classifications of children and young persons at work 
 are desired so that it may be possible to determine those under 14 and 
 those under i5 years of age. 
 
 More detailed information is desired relative to city monopolies. 
 
 The scope of the census should be narrowed rather than widened. 
 Population should be determined once in five years. 
 
 Returns should be made showing the distribution of the ownership 
 of real estate for selected counties in different states, separating non- 
 residents. 
 
 It is desirable to improve the statistics of the number of animals on 
 farms. The number of sheep returned by the census varies materially 
 from the numbers given in the reports of wool-growers. 
 
 ' See above p. i, footnote 2. 
 
496 Americatt Economic Association. 
 
 The statistics of indebtedness of cities should include the amount of 
 count}', school district, drainage district, etc., debt, which must be 
 met by taxes on the property within the city. 
 
 More information is desired in regard to the rates, cost and net 
 profit of municipal water and lighting undertakings. 
 
 A comparative statement for the nineteenth century is desired 
 showing the decennial growth in national area, population, wealth, 
 developed resources, facilities for education, transportation, trans- 
 mission of intelligence, and the opportunities for gainful employment. 
 
 It is suggested that the census, or some other government statistical 
 agency, should work out the velocity of circulation or activity of bank 
 deposits distinguishing accounts drawing interest from those not 
 drawing interest. " The activity is the quotient of the annual checks 
 drawn divided by the average amount of deposits. In this connection 
 statistics of the relative amount of checks passing through and not 
 passing through the clearing-house might be given. All figures 
 should extend back several years to include hard times, panic of 1893, 
 etc. The character of the figures and their importance are worked 
 out for continental Europe by Pierre des Essars, Journal de la Society 
 de Statistigue de Paris, April, 1895, p. 143." 
 
 The census might well add to the statistical statements of quantities, 
 indications of the probable error in those statements. 
 
 Agricultural census should give more complete information as tO' 
 farm values in dollars. 
 
 Care should be taken to make the bulletins as serviceable as 
 possible. For this purpose a condensed table of contents of all the 
 preceding numbers might be published with each last issue. 
 
 The collection of the statistics of corporations is recommended. 
 
 It is hoped that the scope of the census will be restricted to those 
 facts which, if collected at all, must be taken with the enumeration of 
 population ; also that the final reports will contain the schedules and' 
 all instructions to enumerators and special agents. 
 
 There should be details as to the unemployed, statistics in regard to 
 social societies, secret societies, and labor organizations. The prepara- 
 tion of the census should be continuous. There should be co-opera- 
 tion between state and Federal governments and thus a reliable census- 
 might be secured at least every five years. Information might be 
 furnished and distributed by school teachers in localities. Further 
 information is desired as to the sources of the statistics published. 
 
Extracts from Letters. 497 
 
 Returns should show where land in each state is owned, and 
 
 whether the ownership is in a corporation or not. This might be 
 made in connection with mortgage inquiries. 
 
 In municipal statistics, it is recommended that if the public utilitj' 
 be owned and operated by the city, the facts should be stated. 
 
 The sums expended for education in private, sectarian, non-sec- 
 tarian, common schools, colleges, universities, should be stated so as 
 to compare those with public schools as to economy and attendance. 
 
 It is recommended that many of the statistics regarding cities and 
 states should be obtained annually. The scope of the census should 
 not be cut down. 
 
 Additional investigation and special reports on important selected 
 industries would be valuable. 
 
 Because of the inaccuracies of enumeration of the last census, it is 
 recommended that no supervisor or enumerator should have charge 
 of work in the district from which he is appointed ; establish more 
 severe penalties for fraud. 
 
 Data as to the extent, condition, and value of the forests should be 
 secured. 
 
 It is suggested that a census of the more important farm imple- 
 ments and machines should be made. 
 
 Returns as to the maximum capacity of mines and manufactories 
 should be secured. 
 
 The scope of the census should be restricted rather than extended. 
 If there be an extension, it should be in the compilation of municipal 
 statistics from official sources. 
 
 The census should present death rates, not proportional deaths, from 
 all causes and from each specified cause of death for every state in the 
 Union, and not merely for the registration states. For the non-regis- 
 tration states, and for the registration states as well, the census should 
 state the approximate degree of accuracy of the returns. 
 
 Information should be gathered from individuals iu regard to the 
 amount of money on hand, not in bank, and the balance of credits 
 over debts. 
 
 The statistics of foreign born are not sufficiently definite. The 
 questions in regard to parentage should be more definite. 
 
498 American Economic Associatio?i. 
 
 Special inquiries should be subordinated to the enumeration of the 
 population. 
 
 In the treatment of mortality statistics, the census should show how 
 many persons enter upon each year of age and how many complete it, 
 thus furnishing material for a population table of mortality. 
 
 Reliable statistics concerning the days of sickness experienced in 
 each year of age are needed. These statistics ought to be classified 
 by occupation and residence. 
 
 Statistics should show the ntimber of persons killed in each occupa- 
 tion, by accident, and the number injured, together with facts con- 
 cerning length of time disabled, extent of disability, and number of 
 persons dependent. 
 
 There should be more expert supervision of local enumerators. 
 This might be done by more checking and also by securing local 
 expert assistance. 
 
 Convinced that the Census Office should be a permanent institu- 
 tion ; the reports should be kept within more moderate dimensions 
 than those of the tenth cenus. 
 
 Statistics of expenditures of cities should be arranged differently. 
 
 It is desirable to secure statistics of the number of all private cor- 
 porations with their capital stock, in each state and territory, together 
 with amounts at par of capital stock actually issued, and objects and 
 duration of charter in each case or class of cases ; also similar statis- 
 tics as far as obtainable for each decade previous to i8go. 
 
 In tabulating the data of farm tenure there should be given the total 
 number of acres in each group of farms, those under lo acres, those 
 between lo and 20, as well as the number of farms in each group. 
 
 Data for forest products should be secured for the next and possibly 
 one or more succeeding censuses. The data should be secured by a 
 special investigation, and published in an appendix apart from the 
 volume on agriculture. The average enumerator is likely to know so 
 little of forestry and its allied branches that the data secured through 
 him would be very unreliable. 
 
 In regard to the data of wheat raised and consumed there is great 
 room for progress both by the census and the Department of Agricul- 
 ture. Special efforts should be made to obtain returns for all agricul- 
 tural lands. The land missed is tilled largely by owners residing in 
 towns and engaged for a portion or the whole of their time in some 
 other business. The^lands properly classed as agricultural and which 
 were missed in two or three of the last censuses constitute at least 10 
 and possibly 20 per cent of the farm lands in nearly all the states of 
 the Union. The trouble is with the enumerators, and will never be 
 wholly obviated until the census is taken out of politics. 
 
Extracts from Letters. 499 
 
 A special census is desired of the condition of the negro, his pro- 
 gress in art, industry and accumiilation of property, " a very much 
 more important subject than the treatment of the Indian." 
 
 Enumeration of the population and occupations might well be 
 printed together, or occupations immediately following enumeration. 
 An error is made in putting fisheries and mining with agriculture. 
 They have vitiated comparisons. Mining would be much more suita- 
 bly put among manufacturing industries, while fisheries might well 
 be treated separately. The general statistics in manufacturing are in 
 bad form. They have been swelled decade by decade by adding de- 
 partments under the title of " Manufacturing," which have been de- 
 veloped in very recent periods as collective indu.stries, formerly con- 
 ducted in isolated small establishments which did not come into the 
 censuses ; for instance, flour mills, meat packing, repairs of cars and 
 engine?. I propose therefore a new classification. 
 
 Class I. Occupations of a mechanical order. 
 
 Sub-class a. The individual work of the mechanic rather than the 
 collective work of the factory ; blacksmith, carpenter, repairs, millin- 
 ery custom work and the like. 
 
 Sub-class b. Conversion of the crude products of the farm into 
 their secondary products ; bread through the bakery, flour and grist 
 mill ; slaughtering, tobacco stemming. 
 
 Sub-class c. Timber and its conversion into its secondary or its 
 final products. 
 
 Sub-class d. Metal working of certain kinds which are necessarily 
 conducted iu various parts of the country ; the manufacture of coke, 
 gold and silver reducing and the like. 
 
 Sub-class e. Petroleum refining. 
 
 Sub-class f. Miscellaneous arts necessarily conducted in different 
 parts of the country ; artificial limbs, coffins, galvanizing, treatment 
 of tar, tvirpentine and the like. 
 
 Class II. Occupations existing of necessity throughout the country 
 according to conditions and almost of necessity domestic ; agricultural 
 implements, boots and shoes, butter, cheese and condensed milk ; 
 clothing, fertilizers, foundry and machine shop products ; chewing 
 tobacco. 
 
 Class III. Occupations very similar to Class II which are almost of 
 necessity conducted within the limits of our own country, very few of 
 the products being imported ; bagging of flax, hemp and jute, var- 
 nished goods, iron and steel, leather, lime and cement, patent medi- 
 cines, printing and publishing. 
 
 Class IV. Occupations which are customarily thought of and spoken 
 of as manufactures , carpets, chemicals, cotton goods, glassware, 
 hosiery, tobacco and cigars. 
 
 Class V. Articles of luxury, perfumery, jewelry, etc. 
 
 The inquiry in regard to farms and homes, proprietorship and in- 
 debtedness, should be repeated. 
 
500 American Economic Associatio7i. 
 
 Agricui,ture in the Census, by Herbert Myrick. 
 
 All effort was made in good faith to improve the agricultural 
 features of the eleventh census over its predecessors. Some good 
 work was done with special industries, such as fruits, flowers, vines, 
 hops, etc. 
 
 For the bulk of the agricultural returns, as collected by census 
 enumerators, no degree of accuracy can be claimed, except perhaps 
 for the schedules from the more intelligent iiorthern or eastern states. 
 The plan of lumping the returns from five or ten farms on one sched- 
 ule is pregnant with error. The entire absence of accounts or records 
 on most farms, the ignorance of enumerators, the mistaken view of 
 some farmers that census returns will influence their taxes, and the 
 lack of time to devote to each farm, make the methods of previous 
 censuses quite unreliable in collecting the general statistics of agricul- 
 ture. 
 
 Bald evidence of this is seen in the eleventh census. It returned 
 the total value of all agricultural products in 18S9 as 2,460 millions 
 of dollars. As a matter of fact, the average farm value in December 
 that year of the six leading cereals, liay, cotton, tobacco and potatoes 
 produced that season footed up 12,625,000,000. This was on the basis 
 of returns from the United States Department of Agriculture, which 
 at that time and for several years before and since were notoriously 
 underestimated as shown by actual crop movements. 
 
 It is probable that had all other produce been properly included, 
 the census of 1890 would have shown 13,500,000,000 as the value of 
 farm products in the census year. We have made several computa- 
 tions on this point and in a general way they all agree. 
 
 The first thing to insure accuracy in any branch of census work is 
 to secure the most capable man for superintendent of the census, 
 under a law that will enable him to select his assistants and the 
 enumerators according to their ability and independent of their po- 
 litics. Unless this is done, much of the work and money expended 
 on the twelfth census will be thrown away, if not worse. 
 
 To secure a correct agricultural census, each farm in the country 
 must be considered as a unit. There must be a separate schedule for 
 each farm just as with manufacturing establishments. Each enu- 
 merator should deliver a schedule to each farmer in his district, 
 explaining it to him and assisting him in making it out properly. 
 Even with this precaution, there will at best be a large element of 
 guess work. 
 
 Duplication of produce or of raw and manufactured materials is to 
 be guarded against. More accurate data are needed of the various 
 special crops and comparatively minor sources of income. And all 
 these data should be so edited and presented as to be of some direct 
 practical value to the vast intere.sts involved. 
 
Extracts from Letters. 501 
 
 Notes on the Scope and Method of the Twelfth Census by 
 Frederick L. Hoffman. 
 
 First — The final cloth bound volumes should be more strongly 
 bound than has been the practice in the tenth and eleventh censuses. 
 One year's constant use of a cloth bound volume will usually break 
 the binding and require rebinding. 
 
 Second — Tlie volumes on population and vital statistics should be 
 published within two years after the taking of the census. This 
 could unquestionably be done if the maps and diagrams were omitted. 
 While the latter are valuable and interesting, they are not essential to 
 those who make practical use of this part of the census. 
 
 Third — The final volumes should be distributed as soon as received 
 from the public printer, and not, as has been the practice in the dis- 
 tribution of the eleventh census, within a year after the date of publi- 
 cation. For example — Part one of the report on vital statistics, trans- 
 mitted under date of December 30, 1896, weis not distributed until 
 1898. The delay in this case was largely due to the failure of the 
 contractor Lo supply the maps and diagrams , which could have been 
 left out without injury to the permanent value of the work. 
 
 Fourth — The volumes on life and fire insurance are hardlj' necessary 
 since information under this heading is now being collected in a 
 better form in the insurance blue books and the annual reports of in- 
 surance departments. The census returns relating to life insurance 
 for the census year 1890 were transmitted to the Secretary of the In- 
 terior under date of August 25, 1894, printed in 1895 and distributed 
 during the latter part of that year, whereas the same information was 
 printed in the "Insurance Blue Book " and published and made 
 available for practical purposes during the middle part of the year 
 1891. 
 
 Fifth — The volume on Mineral Industry would also seem unneces- 
 sary. In this case the publication was the very first of the official 
 volumes, although as a matter of fact the least neccessary, since 
 practically the same information was published in the annual reports 
 of the United States Geological Survey and the annual supplement to 
 The Engineering afid Dlining Journal. 
 
 Sixth — Population Statistics — The white and colored population of 
 cities with more than 25,000 inhabitants should be given in detail for 
 each census, as far as possible, since 1790. Information of this order 
 is ver}' valuable, and very diiScult to abstract from the previous cen- 
 sus volumes unless the student has at his command at least a complete 
 set of the census returns since 1850. The country of birth and foreign 
 parentage should be given for each nationality having more than 500 
 representatives in any given locality, and not as has been done in the 
 eleventh census, merely for some of the more important nationalities, 
 while the remaining nationalities are given in the aggregate (See 
 page 685, Vol. I, Population). 
 
 Information pertaining to the country of birth and foreign parent- 
 
502 A?n.erican Economic Association. 
 
 age of the Polish population should distinguish between natives of 
 German Poland, Austrian Poland and Russian Poland. Information 
 pertaining to the Russian population should exclude Russian Poles. 
 
 The age distribution of the population of cities should be published 
 in the first population volume, since this information is always 
 urgently needed in the computation of mortality rates for cities and 
 rural districts of the states of this country. 
 
 Seventh — Taxation and Valuation — Information pertaining to tax- 
 ation and valuation should be collected in such a manner that the 
 assessed valuation of real and personal property would be shown 
 according to race, and if possible according to nationality. Similar 
 infoi-mation showing the amount of taxes of various kinds paid by 
 the White, Negro, Chinese and Indian population should be shown. 
 The method to be employed is partly indicated in the annual reports 
 of the state auditor of Virginia. 
 
 Eight — Mortality statistics should be given in all cases by five year 
 age groups, and not by periods such as 25 to 44 or 65 and over. 
 These periods are too long, and in many instances not comparable 
 with information of a similar character. For ages over 65 informa- 
 tion should be given in detail, especially in regard to the relation of 
 conjugal condition to mortality, since the relation of married life to 
 mortality cannot be traced with even a slight degree of accuracy 
 unless the mortality at ages over 65 is given in more detail. 
 
 Ninth — Occupations — Information pertaining to the occupations of 
 the people should be published in a separate volume, and at as early 
 a date as possible. Information should be given in regard to every 
 occupation, no matter how apparently unimportant. Thus for in- 
 stance, the census of 1890 contains, so far as I know, no information 
 pertaining to men employed in linoleum works, although some four 
 establishments employ more than 800 men, nor as regards men em- 
 ployed in glass cutting establishments, although some 12 establish- 
 ments employ about 1,250 men ; nor does the census give any informa- 
 tion as to men employed in the manufacture of the various forms of 
 explosives, such as gun powder, dynamite, fuses and caps, ammuni- 
 tion and fireworks. Hence the necessity of detailed information per- 
 taining to any and every occupation in which the people of this 
 country may be engaged. Detailed information should be given as to 
 the men employed in mining, and the present clumsy method of 
 grouping miners as coal miners and other miners should be discon- 
 tinued. Coal miners should be distinguished according to anthracite 
 and bituminous coal mines, and further distinguished as working 
 above ground and below ground. Metal miners should be dis- 
 tinguished according to the metal or ore mined, such as zinc, gold, 
 iron, silver, quicksilver, etc. Additional information should be given 
 as to whether employed as prospectors, placer miners, drift or deep 
 miners. Information should be collected as regards the loss of life in 
 transportation by land and water, as well as in the fishery industries. 
 Occupations and the mortality from accidents should be stated in de- 
 
Extracts from Letters. 503 
 
 tail to enable the student to ascertain the loss of life in any one of 
 these occupations with an approximate degree of accuracy. Thus at 
 present no information as regards the loss of life in the railway service 
 by distinct occupations, such as engineer, fireman, brakeman, etc., is 
 obtainable either from the census returns or from the annual reports 
 of the Interstate Commerce Commission. The latter reports contain 
 valuable information which, however, is given in groups such as train- 
 men, which includes engineers and brakemen, either of which is sub- 
 ject to a radically different accident liability. The method likely to 
 bring about the most useful results would probably be to request in- 
 formation as to the loss of life resulting from accidents in all manu- 
 facturing industries. This would furnish valuable information per- 
 taining to accidents and the loss of life in metallurgical establishments 
 about which we at present know practically nothing. Care would 
 have to be taken that in returns made by manufacturing industries or 
 by transportation companies, the persons injured should be distin- 
 guished into those who were connected with the establishment 
 and those who were not, as for instance, in street railways the number 
 of persons injured would be mostly those who were not directly con- 
 nected with the operation of this method of transportation. Finally, 
 in collecting information pertaining to the occupations of the people 
 every eifort should be made to obtain supplementary information per- 
 taining to the hygienic condition of the various manufacturing 
 establishments. An immense amount of ignorance as regards the re- 
 lation of occupation to health and mortality prevails at the present 
 time, and most of those who have written on the subject have relied 
 on statistical and other data collected in Europe where conditions 
 affecting persons employed in industrial establishments are radicallj' 
 different from those existing in this country. Thus for instance, glass 
 cutters in France and England are subject to an exceptional disease 
 liability from lead poison and dust inhalation, but practically free 
 from such dangers in the better condvicted establishments in this 
 country. The same holds true as regards men employed in the manu- 
 facture of linoleum, and partly as regards the employment of persons 
 in the manufacture of high explosives. 
 
 Tenth — Government service — The censvis should contain detailed 
 information pertaining to the United States Army and Navy, and also 
 as regards every distinct branch of the government service. At pres- 
 ent the census contains no information pertaining to men employed 
 in light-houses, life saving service, etc., yet constantly questions arise 
 which make it desirable that we should have this information in the 
 census reports. 
 
APPENDIX. 
 
 While this volume is going through the press, Congress 
 has passed the fundamental law determining the scope and 
 organization of the twelfth census. The first eight sections 
 contain nearly all important points of difference between 
 it and the similar laws of 1879 and 1889, and also the 
 main provisions of interest to the student. Hence it has 
 seemed wise to reproduce here these eight sections and to 
 set in a parallel column the similar provisions of the law of 
 1889. The former are taken from the pages of the Con- 
 gressional Record containing the report of the conference 
 committee.^ The other twenty-five sections being occupied 
 with administrative details have been omitted. 
 
 W. F. W. 
 
 An act to provide for taking the 
 
 Eleventh and subsequent 
 
 censuses. 
 
 Be it enacted by the Senate and 
 House of Representatives of the 
 United States of America in Congress 
 assembled, That a census of the pop- 
 ulation, wealth and industry of the 
 United States shall be taken as of the 
 date of June first, eighteen hundred 
 and ninety. 
 
 Sec. 2. That there shall be estab- 
 lished in the Department of the In- 
 terior an office to be denominated the 
 Census Office, the chief officer of which 
 shall be called the Superintendent of 
 Census, whose duty it shall be, under 
 the direction of the head of the De- 
 partment, to superintend and direct 
 the taking of the Eleventh Census of 
 the United States, in accordance with 
 the laws relating thereto, and to per- 
 form such other duties as may be re- 
 quired of him by law. 
 
 Sec. 3. The SiTperintendent of Cen- 
 sus shall be appointed by the Presi- 
 dent, by and with the advice and con- 
 
 An Act to provide for taking the 
 
 Twelfth and subsequent 
 
 censuses. 
 
 Be it enacted by the Senate and 
 House of Representatives of the United 
 States of America in Congress assem- 
 bled, That a census of the population, 
 of deaths, and of the manufacturing, 
 mechanical and agricultural products 
 of the United States shall be taken in 
 the year nineteen hundred, and once 
 every ten years thereafter. 
 
 Sec. 2. That there shall be estab- 
 lished in the Department of the Inte- 
 rior a Census Office, the chief officer 
 of which shall be denominated the 
 Director of the Census. It shall be 
 his duty to superintend and direct the 
 taking of the Twelfth Census of the 
 United States, in accordance with the 
 laws relating thereto, and to perform 
 .such other duties as may be required 
 of him by law. The Director of the 
 Census shall be appointed, as soon as 
 practicable after the passage of this 
 Act, by the President, by and with the 
 ad-\nce and consent of the Senate, and 
 
 ' Congressional Record (March i, 1890), 32 : 2864-2866 (original paging). 
 
Appendix . 
 
 505 
 
 Law of 18S9. 
 sent of the Senate ; and he shall re- 
 ceive an annual salarj' of six thousand 
 dollars ; 
 
 and for the purposes of taking the 
 Eleventh Census of the United States, 
 the Secretary of the Interior may from 
 time to time as the necessity therefor 
 arises appoint a chief clerk and one 
 disbursing clerk of the Census OfKce 
 at an annual salary each of twenty- 
 five hundred dollars, two stenogra- 
 phers, ten chiefs of division, at an 
 annual salary each of two thousand 
 dollars, ten clerks of class four, twen- 
 ty clerks of class three, thirty clerks 
 of class two, with such immber of 
 clerks of class one, and of clerks, 
 copyists and computers, at salaries 
 of not less than seven hundred and 
 twenty dollars nor more than one 
 thousand dollars per annum, as may 
 be found necessary for the proper and 
 prompt compilation of the results of 
 the eutimeration of the census herein 
 provided to be taken. The disbursing 
 clerk herein provided for shall, before 
 entering upon his duties, give bond 
 to the Treasurer of the United States 
 in the pum of fifty thousand dollars, 
 which bond shall be conditioned that 
 the said officer shall render a true and 
 faithful account to the Treasurer, 
 quarter-yearly, of all moneys and 
 properties which shall be by him re- 
 ceived by virtue of his office, with 
 sureties to be approved by the Solici- 
 tor of the Treasury. Such bond shall 
 be filed in the office of the First Comp- 
 troller of the Treasury, to be by him 
 put in suit upon any breach of the 
 conditions thereof. And the Secre- 
 tary of the Interior may also appoint 
 
 Law of 1899. 
 shall receive an annual salary of six 
 thousand dollars ; and there shall also 
 be an Assistant Director of the Cen- 
 sus, to be appointed in like manner, 
 who shall be an experienced practical 
 statistician, and shall receive an an- 
 nual salary of four thousand dollars : 
 Provided, That nothing herein con- 
 tained shall be construed to establish 
 a census bureau permanent beyond 
 the Twelfth Census. 
 
 Sec. 3. That during the absence of 
 the Director of the Census, or when 
 the office of Director shall become 
 vacant, the Assistant Director shall 
 perform the duties of the Director. 
 
 Sec. 4. That there shall also be in 
 the Census Office, to be appointed by 
 the Director tliereof in the manner 
 hereinafter specified, five chief statis- 
 ticians, who shall be persons of known 
 and tried experience in statistical 
 work, at an annual salary of three 
 thousand dollars each ; a chief clerk, 
 one disbursing clerk and one geo- 
 grapher, at an annual salary of two 
 thousand five hundred dollars each ; 
 five expert chiefs of division and two 
 stenographers, at an annual salary of 
 two thousand dollars each ; ten clerks 
 of class four, fifteen clerks of class 
 three, twenty clerks of class two, and 
 such number of clerks of class one, 
 and of clerks, copyists, computers 
 and skilled laborers, with salaries at 
 the rate of not less than six hundred 
 dollars nor more than one thousand 
 dollars per annum, to be appointed 
 from time to time, as maj' be found 
 necessar)' for the proper and prompt 
 performance of the duties herein re- 
 quired to be undertaken. The dis- 
 bursing clerk herein provided for 
 shall, before entering upon his duties, 
 give bond to the Secretary of the 
 Treasury in the sum of fifty thousand 
 dollars, which bond shall be condi- 
 tioned that the said officer shall ren- 
 der a true and faithful account to the 
 proper accotmting officers of the Treas- 
 ury, quarter-yearly, of all moneys and 
 properties which shall be received by 
 him by virtue of his office, with sure- 
 ties to be approved hy the Solicitor of 
 the Treasury. Such bond shall be 
 filed in the office of the Secretary of 
 the Treasury, to be by him put in suit 
 
5o6 
 
 American Economic Association. 
 
 Law of 1889. 
 one captain of the watch at a salary of 
 eight hundred and forty dollars per 
 annum, two messengers and such 
 number of watchmen and assistant 
 messengers, laborers and skilled la- 
 borers at six hundred dollars each 
 per annum, and messenger boys at 
 salaries of four hundred dollars each 
 per annum, and charwomen at sala- 
 ries of two hundred and forty dollars 
 each per annum, as may be found 
 necessary to carry out the provisions 
 of this act. 
 
 All examinations for appointment 
 and promotion, under this act, shall 
 be in the discretion and under the di- 
 rection of the Secretary of the Interi- 
 or. 
 
 Clerks transferred or detailed for 
 service under this act from existing 
 branches of the civil service shall not 
 lose their positions or rights under the 
 act to regulate and improve the civil 
 service of the United States. 
 
 Sec. 17. That the schedules of in- 
 quiries at the Eleventh Census shall 
 be the same as those contained in sec- 
 tion number twenty-two hundred and 
 six of the Revised Statutes of the 
 United States, of eighteen hundred 
 and seventy-eight, as amended by sec- 
 tion seventeen of the act entitled "An 
 act to provide for taking the Tenth 
 and subsequent censuses", approved 
 March third, eighteen hundred and 
 seventy-nine, with such changes of 
 the subject matter, emendations, and 
 
 I^aw of 1899. 
 upon any breach of the conditions 
 thereof. 
 
 The Director of the Census may 
 also appoint one captain of the watch, 
 at a salary of eight hundred and forty 
 dollars per annum ; two messengers, 
 and such number of watchmen, as- 
 sistant messengers, and laborers, at 
 salaries of six hundred dollars each 
 per annum ; messenger boys, at sal- 
 aries of four hundred dollars each per 
 annum ; and charwomen, at salaries 
 of two hundred and forty dollars each 
 per annum, as may be necessary to 
 carry out the provisions of this act. 
 
 Sec. 5. That the chief clerk and the 
 chief statisticians provided for in sec- 
 tion four of this Act, and all other em- 
 ployees authorized by this Act below 
 the Assistant Director of the Census, 
 shall be appointed by the Director of 
 of the Census, subject to such exami- 
 nation as said Director may prescribe : 
 Provided, That no examination shall 
 be required in the case of enumerators 
 or special agents, nor of employees 
 below the grade of skilled laborers at 
 six hundred dollars per annum. And 
 provided further, That employees in 
 the existing branches of the depart- 
 mental service, whose services may be 
 specially desired by the Director of 
 the Censtis, not exceeding six in all, 
 may be transferred without examina- 
 tion, and at the end of such service 
 the employees so transferred shall be 
 eligible to appointment in any de- 
 partment without additional exami- 
 nation, when vacancies exist. 
 
 Sec. 6. That the collection of the 
 information required by this Act shall 
 be made, under the direction of the 
 Director of the Census, by supervisors, 
 enumerators and special agents, as 
 hereinafter provided. 
 
 Sec. 7. That the Twelfth Census 
 shall be restricted to inquiries re- 
 lating to the population, to mortality, 
 to the products of agriculture, aivJ of 
 manufacturing and mechanical estab- 
 lishments. The schedules relating to 
 the population shall comprehend for 
 each inhabitant the name, age, color, 
 sex, conjugal condition, place of 
 birth and place of birth of parents, 
 whether alien or naturalized, number 
 of years in the United States, occu- 
 pation, months unemployed, literacy, 
 
Appendix . 
 
 507 
 
 I,aw of 1889. 
 modifications as may be approved by 
 the Secretary of the Interior ; it being 
 the intent of this section to give to 
 said Secretary full discretion over the 
 form of the schedules of such inqui- 
 ries : Provided, however, That said 
 Superintendent shall, under the au- 
 thority of the Secretary of the luteri- 
 ■or, cause to be taken on a special 
 schedule of inquiry, according to such 
 form as he may prescribe, the names, 
 organizations, and length of service 
 of those who had served in the Anuy, 
 Navy, or Marine Corps of the United 
 States in the war of the rebellion, and 
 who are survivors at the time of said 
 inquiry, and the widows of soldiers, 
 sailors, or marines : And provided. 
 That the population schedule shall in- 
 clude an inquiry as to the number of 
 negroes, mulattoes, quadroons and 
 octoroons. 
 
 And he shall collect from official 
 sources information relating to ani- 
 mals not on farms. 
 
 It shall be the duty of the Superin- 
 tendent of Census, in addition to the 
 dvities now required of him by law, 
 to ascertain the number of persons 
 who live on and cultivate their own 
 farms, and who live in their own 
 homes, and the number who hire their 
 farms and homes, and the number of 
 farms and homes which are under 
 mortgage, the amount of mortgage 
 debt, and the value of the property 
 mortgaged. He shall also ascertain 
 whether such farms and homes have 
 been mortgaged for the whole or part 
 of the purchase money for the same, 
 or for other purposes, and the rates of 
 interest paid upon mortgage loans. — 
 [Amendment 0/ Feb. 22, iSgo.'} 
 
 Law of 1899. 
 school attendance, and ownership of 
 farms and homes ; and the Director 
 of the Census may use his discretion 
 as to the construction and form and 
 number of inquiries necessary to se- 
 cure information under the topics 
 aforesaid. The mortality schedules 
 shall comprehend for each decedent 
 the name, sex, color, age, conjugal 
 condition, place of birth, and birth- 
 place of parents, occupation, cause 
 and date of death, and, if born within 
 the census year, the date of birth. 
 The form and arrangement of the 
 schedule and the specific questions 
 necessary to secure the information 
 required shall be in the discretion of 
 the Director. The schedules relating 
 to agriculture shall comprehend the 
 following topics : Name of occupant 
 of each farm, color of occupant, ten- 
 ure, acreage, value of farm and im- 
 provements, acreage of different pro- 
 ducts, quantity and value of products, 
 and number and value of live stock. 
 All questions as to quantity and 
 value of crops shall relate to the year 
 ending December thirty-first next pre- 
 ceding the enumeration. The specific 
 form aud division of inquiries neces- 
 sary to secure information under the 
 foregoing topics shall be in the dis- 
 cretion of the Director of the Census. 
 The schedules of inquiries relating to 
 the products of manufacturing and 
 mechanical establishments shall em- 
 brace the name and location of each 
 establishment ; character of organiza- 
 tion, whether individual, co-operative, 
 or other form ; date of commence- 
 ment of operations ; character of 
 business or kind of goods manu- 
 factured ; amount of capital invested ; 
 number of proprietors, firm members, 
 copartners or officers, and the amount 
 of their salaries ; number of em- 
 ployees, and the amount of their 
 wages ; quantity and cost of materials 
 used in manufactures ; amount of 
 miscellaneous expenses ; quantity and 
 value of prodiicts ; time in operation 
 during the census year ; character 
 and quantity of power used ; and 
 character and number of machines 
 employed. The form and subdivision 
 of inquiries necessary to secure the 
 information under the foregoing 
 topics relating to manufacturing and 
 
5o8 
 
 America?i Economic Association. 
 
 Ivaw of 1889. 
 
 Whenever he shall deem it expedi- 
 ent, the Superintendent of Census 
 may withhold the schedules for man- 
 ufacturing, mining and social statis- 
 tics from the enumerators of the sev- 
 eral subdivisions, and may charge the 
 collection of these statistics upon ex- 
 perts and special agents, to be em- 
 ployed without respect to locality. 
 In cities or states where an official 
 registration of deaths is maintained, 
 the Superintendent of Census may, 
 in his discretion, withhold the mor- 
 tality schedule from the several enii- 
 merators within such cities or states, 
 and may obtain the statistics required 
 by this act through official records, 
 paying therefor such sum as may be 
 found necessary, not exceeding the 
 amount which is by this act author- 
 ized to be paid to enumerators for a 
 similar service, namely, two cents for 
 each death thus returned. The Su- 
 perintendent of Census shall collect 
 and publish the statistics of the pop- 
 ulation, industries and resources of 
 the district of Alaska, with such full- 
 ness as he may deem expedient, and 
 as he shall find practicable under the 
 appropriations made, or to be made, 
 for the expenses of the Eleventh Cen- 
 sus. 
 
 The onlj' volumes that shall be pre- 
 pared and published in connection 
 with said census shall relate to popu- 
 lation and social statistics relating 
 thereto, the products of manufacto- 
 ries, mining and agriculture, mortal- 
 ity and vital statistics, valuation and 
 public indebtedness, recorded indebt- 
 edness, and to statistics relating to 
 railroad corporations, incorporated 
 express, telegraph and insurance 
 companies, a list of the names, or- 
 ganizations and length of ser\'ice of 
 surviving soldiers, sailors and ma- 
 rines, and the widows of soldiers, sail- 
 ors and marines. 
 
 Law of 1899. 
 mechanical industries shall be in the 
 discretion of the Director of the Cen- 
 sus. The information collected shall 
 be of and for the fiscal year of such 
 corporations or establishments hav- 
 ing its termination nearest to and 
 preceding the first of June, nineteen 
 hundred. 
 
 Whenever he shall deem it expedi- 
 ent, the Director of the Census may 
 withhold the schedules for said manu- 
 facturing and mechanical statistics 
 from the envimerators of tlie several 
 subdivisions in any or all cases, and 
 may charge the collection of these 
 statistics upon special agents, to be 
 employed without respect to locality. 
 In cities or states where an official 
 registration of deaths is maintained, 
 the Director of the Census may, in 
 his discretion, "withhold the mortality 
 schedule from the several enumer- 
 ators within such cities or states, and 
 may obtain the information required 
 by this Act through official records, 
 paying therefor such sum of money 
 as may be found necessary, not ex- 
 ceeding two cents for each death thus 
 returned. The Director of the Census 
 is also authorized and directed to 
 make suitable provisions for the 
 enumeration of the population and 
 products of Alaska and the Hawaiian 
 Islands, for which purpose he may 
 employ supervisors and enumerators 
 or special agents, as he may deem 
 necessary. 
 
 The only volumes that shall be pre- 
 pared and published in connection 
 with the twelfth census, except the 
 special reports hereinafter provided 
 for, shall relate to population, mor- 
 tality and vital statistics, the products 
 of agriculture, and of manufacturing 
 and mechanical establishments, as 
 above mentioned, and shall be desig- 
 nated as and constitute the Census Re- 
 ports, which said reports shall be 
 published not later than the first day 
 of July, nineteen hundred and two. 
 The report upon population shall in- 
 clude a series of separate tables for 
 each state, giving by counties the num- 
 ber of male persons below and above 
 the age of twenty-one years, their 
 
Appendix. 
 
 509 
 
 I^aw of 1889. 
 
 And said Superintendent may em- 
 ploy experts and special agents to in- 
 vestigate and ascertain the statistics 
 of the manufacturing, railroad, fish- 
 ing, mining, cattle and other indus- 
 tries of the country, and of telegraph, 
 
 Law of 1899, 
 color, whether native or foreign born, 
 whether naturalized or not, and their 
 literacy or illiteracy. All terms ex- 
 pressing weight, nieastire, distance, 
 or value shall be expressed in the 
 terms of the English language as 
 spoken in this country. 
 
 Sec. 8. That after the completion 
 and return of the enumeration and of 
 the work upon the schedules relating 
 to the products of agriculture and to 
 manufacturing and mechanical estab- 
 lishments provided for in section seven 
 of this Act, the Director of the Census 
 is hereby authorized to collect statistics 
 relating to special classes, including 
 the insane, feeble-minded, deaf, dumb, 
 and blind ; to crime, pauperism and 
 benevolence, including prisoners, pau- 
 pers, juvenile delinquents and in- 
 mates of benevolent and reformatory 
 institutions ; to deaths and births in 
 registration areas ; to social statistics 
 of cities ; to public indebtedness, 
 valuation, taxation and expenditures; 
 to religious bodies ; to electric light 
 and power, telephone and telegraph 
 business ; to transjiortation by water, 
 express business, and street railways ; 
 to mines, mining and minerals, and 
 the production and value thereof, in- 
 cluding gold, in divisions of placer 
 and vein, and silver mines, and the 
 number of men employed, the aver- 
 age daily wage, average working 
 time, and aggregate earnings in the 
 various branches and aforesaid divi- 
 sions of the mining industry : Pro- 
 vided, That the reports herein author- 
 ized relating to mines, mining and 
 minerals shall be published on or be- 
 fore July first, anno Domini nineteen 
 hundred and three. 
 
 And the Director of the Census shall 
 prepare schedules containing such in- 
 terrogatories as shall in his judgment 
 be best adapted to elicit the informa- 
 tion required under these subjects, 
 with such specifications, divisions, and 
 particulars under each head as he shall 
 deem necessary to that end. For the 
 purpose of securing the statistics re- 
 quired by this section, the Director of 
 the Census may appoint special agents 
 when necessary, and such special 
 agents shall receive compensation as 
 hereinafter provided. The statistics 
 of deaths and births provided for in 
 
5IO 
 
 American Economic Association. 
 
 Law of T889. 
 express, transportation and insurance 
 companies as he may designate and 
 reqmre. 
 
 Law of 1899. 
 this section shall be obtained from, 
 and restricted to, the registration 
 records of such states and municipali- 
 ties as possess records affording satis- 
 factory data in necessary detail, in the 
 discretion of the Director, the com- 
 pensation for the transcription of 
 which shall not exceed two cents for 
 each birth or death reported. The 
 statistics of special classes, and of 
 crime, pauperism and benevolence 
 specified in this section shall be re- 
 stricted to institutions containing such 
 classes : Provided, That at the time of 
 the census enumeration the data re- 
 lating to these classes may, in the dis- 
 cretion of the Director of the Census, 
 be collected by the enumerators of 
 such institutions, who shall receive 
 compensation therefor at rates not ex- 
 ceeding, in per capita districts, five 
 cents for each name enumerated and 
 returned. The collection of statistics 
 authorized by this section shall be 
 made at such time or times and in 
 such manner as will not interfere with 
 nor delay the rapid completion of the 
 census reports provided for in section 
 seven of this Act, and all reports pre- 
 pared under the provisions of this sec- 
 tion shall be designated as ' ' Special 
 Reports of the Census Office. ' ' 
 
INDEX 
 
 PAGE 
 
 Accuracy, limit of in statistics, 131 
 
 135- 
 Acre values, errors in, 242. 
 Age, degree of accuracy in reporting, 
 14; age grouping in illiteracy sta- 
 tistics, 70-72 ; in school statistics, 
 74 ; in occupation statistics, 94-96 ; 
 in mortality statistics, 140, 144-147, 
 502 ; in statistics of crime, 177 ; in 
 statistics of child labor, 495. 
 
 Age, Sex, Dwellings, Families, and 
 Urban Population, by G. K. 
 Holmes, 54-67. 
 
 Agriculture, broadest meaning of 
 term, 80 ; in census, 86, 87 ; in- 
 completeness of census returns, 
 498 ; Agriculture in the Census 
 (excerpt from letter by H. Myrick), 
 500. 
 
 Agriculture, by N. I. Stone, 204-218. 
 
 Alaska, uncertainty of boundary 
 lines, 8. 
 
 Alcohol and longevity, 163. 
 
 American Economic Association, ap- 
 pointment of special committee on 
 twelfth census, i ; letter of com- 
 mittee to members, 1-2 ; excerpts 
 from replies, 495-503. 
 
 Apache Indians, death rate of, 134. 
 
 Area, measurement of, 8, 9. 
 
 Area, Popidation, Birthplace, BJigra- 
 tion and Conjugal Condition, by 
 W. F. Willcox, 8-37. 
 
 Argentine Republic, emigration from, 
 21. 
 
 Bank deposits, circulation of, 496. 
 
 Benevolence, Pauperism and, by S. 
 M. Lindsay, 184-203. 
 
 Billings, Dr. J. S., on vital statistics 
 of Jews, 46 ; special agent for 
 enumeration of insane, 195. 
 
 Births, registration of, 130, 141. 
 
 Birthplace, probable degree of ac- 
 curacy in reporting, 14-17. 
 
 Birth time, relation to birthplace in 
 age statistics, 14. 
 
 Bishop, J. L., on census statistics of 
 manufactures, 259-261. 
 
 Blind, classification of in census, 184. 
 
 Boas, JFranz, The Census of the 
 North American Indians, 49-53. 
 
 PAGE 
 
 British Board of Trade, investigations 
 into manufacturing industries, 342. 
 
 Brown, F. J., on distribution of negro 
 population, 41-43 ; on death rate of 
 negroes, 47. 
 
 Bullock, C. J., Wage Statistics and 
 the Federal Census, 343-368. 
 
 Bureau of American Ethnology, and 
 statistics of Indian population, 50. 
 
 Bureau of Education, collection of 
 educational statistics by, 76-77. 
 
 Bureau of Statistics of Treasury De- 
 partment and statistics of coast 
 trade, 248. 
 
 Burnap, C. E., mortality in Massa- 
 chusetts cities, 148. 
 
 Canadians in U. S., 21-22. 
 
 Capital, in manufacturing, 283-298, 
 322-327, 335 ; of private corpora- 
 tions, 498. 
 
 Carpenters, in census of manufac- 
 tures, 274 ; wages of, 363-364. 
 
 Carpenter shops, 309. 
 
 Castilian mark, weight of, 133. 
 
 Census Bulletin, to increase value of, 
 496. 
 
 Census Bureau. See Permanent Cen- 
 sus Bureau. 
 
 Census Office, organization and his- 
 tory of, 467-470, in 1890, 473. 
 
 Census reports, dimensions of, 498. 
 
 Census volumes, binding of, 501 ; dis- 
 tribution of, 501. 
 
 Census, general recommendations on 
 scope and method, 3-7, 54, 495-503. 
 See also article, Scope and Method 
 of the Federal Census. 
 
 Center of Population, 12, 13. 
 
 Cereals, 208. 
 
 Charities, see Pauperism and Benev- 
 olence. 
 
 Chateauneuf , on death rates of Paris 
 poor, 139. 
 
 Chemicals, census report on, 312. 
 
 "Chicago as a health resort," 116. 
 
 Children, determination of ages of, 
 56, note ; in industry, 95, 96, 495. 
 
 Cities, statistics of maniifactures in, 
 by W. C. Ford, 328-342. 
 
 Cities, foreign born population in, 22- 
 25 ; importance of social statistics 
 
512 
 
 American Economic Association. 
 
 of. 581 59 ; population of, 65-67 ; 
 suburban transit, 66 ; death rates 
 of. 137-140, 14S ; productive indus- 
 tries in, 306 ; manufacturing ^^•ages 
 in, 328-342, 353-359; classifica- 
 tion of in municipal finance, 416, 
 420, 422-425 ; relation to county, 
 state and nation in matters of 
 finance, 448-452, 496 ; annual sta- 
 tistics of, 497 ; population statistics 
 of, 501, 502. 
 
 Civil service system and the census, 
 489. 
 
 Coast and Geodetic Survey, character 
 of work of, 8. 
 
 Conjugal Condition, 29-37 ; relation 
 to occupation, 81, 96; relation to 
 mortality, 143 ; relation to crime, 
 179. 
 
 Corporations, 496, 49S. 
 
 Cost in manufactures, 2S0, 313, 335. 
 
 Coxe, Tench, contributions to statis- 
 tistics of manufactures, 259, 329. 
 
 Credit capital, 325. 
 
 Crime, Statistics of, in U. S. Census, 
 by R. P. Falkner, 170-183. 
 
 Crop liens and mortgages, 244. 
 
 Death rates, importance of, in mor- 
 tality statistics, 109 ; accuracy of 
 census returns, 111-113; propor- 
 tional rates, 113-119 ; rate in Iowa, 
 122 ; in U. S., 123-131, 135-157 ; to 
 be used instead of proportional 
 deaths, 495. 
 
 Debts, summary of, in municipal 
 finance, 455-456. 
 
 Defectives, classification of, 184, 195, 
 196. 
 
 Density of population, 11, 12; con- 
 centration of negroes, 43. 
 
 Dentists, classification of, 334. 
 
 Dependents, defined, 191 ; expendi- 
 tures for, in cities, schedule, 461, 
 464. 
 
 Department of Labor, U. S., investi- 
 gation of negro population, 38 ; in- 
 ve,stigation of city problems, 67 ; 
 the collection of wage statistics by, 
 364 ; statistics of numicipal finance, 
 
 453- 
 
 Department of Agriculture, investi- 
 gation of negro problem, 38. 
 
 De Bow, J. D. B., work in seventh 
 census, 260 ; on profits in manu- 
 factures, 284. 
 
 Dewey, D. R., Illiteracy and Educa- 
 tional Statistics, 68-77. 
 
 de Wit, Jean, connection with origin 
 of life tables, 158. 
 
 Divorces, granted yearly in U. S., 30. 
 
 Domestic Service, census use of term, 
 87. 
 
 DuBois, W. E. B., 38, note ; on negro 
 mortality, 47. 
 
 Durand, E. D., Revenues and Ex- 
 penditures of New York, 410. 
 
 Dwelling, as defined in census, 11, 
 60 ; Dwellings atid Families, (>o-6$. 
 
 Education, statistics, 74-77 ; sched- 
 ule of expenditures for, 461 ; pri- 
 vate and public schools, 497. 
 
 Electric plants, omitted in census of 
 wealth, 377. 
 
 Elliott, E. B., on accuracy of death 
 rates, 125 ; life tables of, 1 60-1 61. 
 
 Emigration from U. S., 18-21. 
 
 Employed, number of, 91, 92. 
 
 Employees in manufactures, 348-350, 
 
 354, 355. 361-363- 
 
 England, jealousy regarding manu- 
 factures in American Colonies, 328. 
 
 Enumerators, work of, 478 ; immber 
 for twelfth census, 481 ; should not 
 serve in district from which ap- 
 pointed, 497 ; expert supervision, 
 efficiency, and remuneration of, 
 498. 
 
 Epidemics, and death rates, 127. 
 
 Expectation of life, 154, 155. 
 
 Expenditures, of government, 405- 
 409 ; of cities, 429-448 ; classifica- 
 tion of, in city finance, 435 ; sched- 
 ules, 455, 460-465. 
 
 Express business, statistics of, 247. 
 
 Factory, and trades products, 269- 
 275 ; definition suggested, 273 ; sys- 
 tem, in statistics of industries, 310. 
 
 Falkner, R. P., Statistics of Critne 
 in the U. S., 170-183. Prices of 
 manufactures since i860, 267. 
 
 Families, Dwellings and, 60-65. 
 
 Family, as a unit for social statistics, 
 227-228. 
 
 Farm and Home Proprietorship and 
 Real Estate Mortgage Indebted- 
 ness, by David Kinley, 219-245. 
 
 Farms and Homes, possibilities of 
 investigating, 383 ; acres in groups 
 of farms, 497. See also Agriculture. 
 
 Farm animals, fuller statistics desira- 
 ^ ble, 495. 
 
 P'arm implements, 497. 
 
 Farm values, desirability of in dollars, 
 496. 
 
 Fai-r, Wm., on registration of births, 
 129 ; on death rate in England, 
 137, 149, 165. 
 
Index. 
 
 513 
 
 Farren, E., on death rate in England, 
 
 162. 
 Feeble-minded, classification of, 184, 
 
 195- 
 
 Female labor in gainful occupations, 
 100, lOI. 
 
 Fertilizers, in census of agriculture, 
 211. 
 
 Fisher, Irving, Mortality Statistics 
 in the U. S. Census, 121-169. 
 
 Fisheries, and fish commission, 4 ; 
 classification of, 86, 107, 499. 
 
 Ford, W. C, Statistics of Manufact- 
 ures ill Cities, 328-342. 
 
 Foreign born population in U. S., 17, 
 18 ; in American cities, 22, 25 ; in 
 indiistrial population, 97 ; in cer- 
 tain occupations, 98-101 ; census 
 qviestions regarding, 497. 
 
 Forests, data for, 497, 498. 
 
 France, and manufactures in Ameri- 
 can colonies, 328 ; census reports 
 on manufacturing industries, 341. 
 
 Franchises, omission of in census of 
 wealth, 377. 
 
 Freight traffic, statistics, 253. 
 
 Friendly societies, classification of in 
 census, 202. 
 
 "Funds" in municipal finance, 431, 
 437 note. 
 
 Furniture, valuation of, 386. 
 
 Gardner, H. B., Suggestions in Re- 
 gard to the Statistics of Municipal 
 Finance in the Census of igoo, 
 
 415-465- 
 
 Garfield, J. A., Census schedules of 
 manufactures in 1870, 345. 
 
 Gas plants omitted from census enu- 
 meration of wealth, 377. 
 
 Gold, estimates of volume in XJ. S., 
 
 133- 
 
 Gompertz, — law of human mortality, 
 164. 
 
 Government property in census, 378. 
 
 Government receipts and expendi- 
 tures, 405-409 ; services, fuller re- 
 turns needed, 503. 
 
 Gravmt, John, life tables, 158. 
 
 Hadley, A. T., on public wealth, 374. 
 
 Halley, Edmund, connection of with 
 origin of life tables, 158, 165. 
 
 Hamilton, A., first census of manu- 
 factures, 328. 
 
 Hand trades and factory industry, 
 269-275 ; in census of industries, 
 309 ; increase shown in census of 
 
 1890. 359-360- 
 Health, schedule of city expenditures 
 for, 461. 
 
 33 
 
 Hollerith, H., tabulating system of, 
 491. 
 
 Hoffman, F. L., monograph on Amer- 
 ican negro, 39 ; on vital statistics 
 of negro, 45, 47, 140 ; Notes on 
 Scope and Method of Twelfth Cen- 
 sus, 501-503. 
 
 Holmes, G. K., Age, Sex, Dwell- 
 ings, Families and Urban Popula- 
 tion, 54-67. 
 
 Humphreys, N. A., on increased life 
 in England, 156. 
 
 Hunt, W. C, Scope and Method of 
 Twelfth Census, 466-494. 
 
 H3'de, John, size of farms, 212. 
 
 Illiteracy and Educational Statistics, 
 by D. R. Dewey, 68-77. 
 
 Immigration, and illiteracy, 71 ; con- 
 tribution to industrial population, 
 g7-ioc. 
 
 Indebtedness, of cities, 425-428 ; 
 farm, see Farm and Home Propri- 
 etorship, etc. 
 
 Indians, importance in census, 38, 46. 
 
 Indians, The Census and the North 
 American, by Franz Boas, 49-53. 
 
 Indian reservations, in census of 
 wealth, 389. 
 
 Industrial classes, index to progress 
 of, 231. 
 
 Insane, classification of in census, 
 
 184, 195- 
 
 Insurance, risks, 162 ; statistics in 
 census, 501. 
 
 Interest rates, census method of de- 
 termining, 234. 
 
 International Institute of Statistics, 
 on correction of death rates, 147. 
 
 International Statistical Congress, 
 neglect of statistics of pauperism, 
 188. 
 
 Interstate Commerce Commission and 
 transportation statistics, see Trans- 
 portation, Statistics of. 
 
 Investments, in city finance, 437, note. 
 
 Iron and Steel industry, 304 ; pro- 
 duct, 311 ; costof manufacture, 314. 
 
 Irrigation, 4. 
 
 Jeans, J. S., on advance in wages, 
 357, note. 
 
 Johnson, E. R., Statistics of Trans- 
 portation, 246-256. 
 
 Jones, C. N., Life insurance in tropics, 
 163. 
 
 King, W. A, vital statistics of census, 
 III, 112, 128. 
 
 Kinley, David, Farm and Home 
 Proprietorship, and Real Estate 
 Mortgage Indebtedness, 219-245. 
 
514 
 
 American Economic Associaiio?i. 
 
 Koch, Dr. ^, correction of crude 
 
 death rates, 147. 
 Korosi, Josef, on correction of crude 
 
 death rates, 146. 
 Labor, constancy of employment, 367. 
 Labor cost, in manufactures, 280-283, 
 
 314- 
 "Laborers" in census, 90, 102. 
 Land, ownership of by corporations, 
 
 497- . . , . 
 
 Liabihties, in municipal finance, 446. 
 Lexis, W. , Law of chance in mortality, 
 
 164. 
 Life tables, 157-165. 
 Life times, average, 148-157. 
 Lindsay, S. M., Pauperism and Be- 
 nevolence, 184-203. 
 Live stock, 209. 
 
 Loan associations, and ownership, 232. 
 Long Island, census figures of area, 9. 
 Lord, J. S., mortgages in Illinois, 219. 
 Machinery in agriculture, 205, 209. 
 Manufactures, census use of term, 87 ; 
 
 data of capacity of factories, 497 ; 
 
 classification of, 499. 
 Manufactures in tlie Federal Census, 
 
 by S. N. D. North, 257-302. 
 Manufactures, Report of Eleventh 
 
 Census on, by W. M. Steuart, 303- 
 
 327- 
 
 Manufactures in Cities, Statistics of, 
 by W. C. Ford, 328-342. 
 
 Marriage, age limits, 33 ; in early 
 life, 34-36 ; conditions affecting, 33- 
 37 ; of whites with negroes, 44. 
 
 Mayo-Smith, R,, Statistics of Occupa- 
 tions, 78-107. 
 
 Meat, slaughtering and packing, re- 
 lation of gross and net values illus- 
 trated by, 278, note, 319. 
 
 Meech, life tables for U. S., 159-161, 
 165. 
 
 Mechanical industries in census, 87. 
 
 Metropolitan Life Ins. Co., statistics 
 of mortality among poor, 139. 
 
 Migration, interstate, 25. 
 
 Mineral industries, statistics by Geo- 
 logical Survey, 4 ; classification in 
 census, 86, 102, 107 ; suggestion of 
 omission in census, 501. 
 
 Mines and quarries, value of, 3S4 ; 
 data of capacity, 497. 
 
 Money, in hands of individuals, 497. 
 
 Morrison, W. D., on criminal statis- 
 tics, 181, note. 
 
 Mortality Statistics of the Eleventh 
 Census, by C. L. Wilbur, 108-120. 
 
 Mortality Statistics in the U. S. Cen- 
 sus, by Irving Fisher, 121-169. 
 
 Mortality statistics, suggestions, 498,. 
 502, 503. 
 
 Mortgage indebtedness, in relation 
 to size of farms, 215 ; Farm and 
 Home Prop7-ietorship and Real Es- 
 tate Mortgage Indebtedness, 219- 
 
 245- 
 Mulhall, M. G., error of, in use of 
 
 census wage statistics, 356, note. 
 Municipal Finance, Suggestions in 
 
 Regard to Statistics of, in Census 
 
 of /goo, by H. B. Gardner, 415- 
 
 465- 
 
 Municipal Statistics, collection of, 
 from ofiicial sources, 497. 
 
 Municipal ownership, desirability of 
 data, 496. 
 
 Myrick, H., Agriculture in the Cen- 
 sus, 500. 
 
 Nationality and race, in populatioui 
 of U. S. , 18 ; in illiteracy, statistics, 
 70 ; ill educational statistics, 75 ; 
 relation to occupation, 81, 98. 
 
 Negroes, tendency to early marriage, 
 34> 35 ; Colored Population of 
 African Descent, 38-48 ; illiteracy 
 of, 71 ; mortality, 139, 140 ; special 
 census of, 499. 
 
 Nineteenth Century, comparative 
 statement for, 496. 
 
 North, S. N. D., Manufactures in 
 the Federal Census, ■2^']-}f>i ; cen- 
 sus, wage statistics in 1880-1890, 
 356, note. 
 
 North Adams, size of families in, 228. 
 
 Occupations, Statistics of, by R.. 
 Mayo-Smith, 78-107. 
 
 Occupations, new classification of, 
 499 ; fuller returns desirable, 502 ; 
 relation to mortality statistics, 503.. 
 
 Ogle, Dr. W., on correction of crude 
 death rates, 147. 
 
 "Ordinary" receipts and expendi- 
 tures in cities, 438, 439, note. 
 
 Out-door relief, in New York, 190 ; 
 treatment in census, 194, 196. 
 
 Ownership, and industrial classifica- 
 tion, 231 ; and density of popula- 
 tion, 232 ; and loan associations, 
 232. 
 
 Pauperism and Benevolence, by S. 
 M. Lindsay, 184-203. 
 
 Pearson, Karl, chance in mortality 
 statistics, 164. 
 
 Penal institutions as source of city 
 revenue, schedule, 458. 
 
 Permanent census bureau, desirabil- 
 ity of, 4, 244, 301, 308. See also 
 
Index. 
 
 515 
 
 art. , Scope and Method of the Fed- 
 eral Census. 
 
 Personal property, taxation of, 402. 
 
 Personal service, 87. 
 
 Plehn, C. C, Wealth, Debt and Tax- 
 ation, 369-414. 
 
 Population, Area, Population, etc., 
 8-37 ; of minor administrative di- 
 visions, 483 ; census returns of, and 
 local taxation, 484 ; more frequent 
 counts, 495 ; relation to occupa- 
 tions, 498 ; publication of volumes 
 on, 501 ; fuller statistics for cities, 
 501. 
 
 Porter, R. P., classification of de- 
 fectives, and dependents, 195 ; sta- 
 tistics of capital in manufactures, 
 286 ; organization of Eleventh Cen- 
 sus, 474-477- 
 
 Price, contribution to life tables, 158, 
 165. 
 
 Prices of manufactures in 1870, 266, 
 267. 
 
 Prisoners, number of in relation to 
 crime, 179-181. 
 
 ' ' Product ' ' in census of manufac- 
 tures, 317. 
 
 Profit on capital in manufactures, 
 280, 284, 297. 
 
 Professional men, death rate of, 142. 
 
 Professional service, in census, 87. 
 
 Property, assessed valuation, 397-404. 
 
 Prosperity, national, of what it con- 
 sists, 373. 
 
 Race mixture, between whites and 
 negroes, 44 ; between Indians and 
 whites or negroes, 51-53. 
 
 Race, in statistics of illiteracy, 70, 71 ; 
 relation to occupation statistics, 81 ; 
 relation to morLality statistics, 139, 
 140. 
 
 Railroads, valuation of, 385, 397 ; sta- 
 tistics of, see Transportation Sta- 
 tistics. 
 
 Real estate, census definition, 379 ; 
 valuation of, 379-3S3 ; taxation of, 
 402 ; distribution of ownership, 495. 
 
 Real estate mortgages, 4, 236-244. 
 
 Registration, areas, 110-113, 136; and 
 census enumeration, 124-131. 
 
 Reilly, F. W., on deaths from con- 
 sumption in Chicago, 116. 
 
 Revenues, and expenditiures of 
 national and local governments, 
 405-409 ; in municipal finance, clas- 
 sification, 433 ; census treatment of, 
 440-441 ; summary, 455 ; schedules, 
 458-465- 
 
 Ripley, W. Z., Colored Population of 
 
 African Descent, 38-48. 
 Robinson, J. A., on "Chicago as a 
 
 health resort, " 116. 
 Sanborn, F. B., pauperism and the 
 
 census, 194. 
 Schools, statistics of, 4 ; private and 
 
 public, 497. See also Educational 
 
 Statistics. 
 School system, treatment in statistics 
 
 of municipal finance, 421, note. 
 Scope and Method of the Federal 
 
 Census, by W. C. Hunt, 466-494. 
 Scope and Method of the Twelfth 
 
 Census, notes by F. L. Hoffman, 
 
 501-503. 
 Seaton, Supt. C. W., death of, 468. 
 Sex, in census classification, 58-60 ; 
 
 relation to occupation, 81, 92-94 ; 
 
 relation to longevity, 154. 
 Seligman, E. R. A., statistics of val- 
 uation and assessment, 404. 
 "Significant" figures in statistics, 
 
 132-135- 
 Sinking funds, in municipal finance, 
 
 432, 464, 465. 
 Societies, statistics of, 496. 
 States, annual statistics of, 497. 
 Still births, 141. 
 Social classes, progress shown by 
 
 ownership statistics, 231. 
 Stone, N. I., Agriculture, 204-218. 
 Street railway statistics, 249. 
 Standard of value, effect on statistics 
 
 of manufactures, 265-269. 
 Stockton-Hough, J., on births, deaths 
 
 and marriages in Philadelphia, 152 
 
 note. 
 Steuart, W. M. , industries in census of 
 
 manufactures, 269 ; average wages, 
 
 299. 
 Report of Eleventh Census on 
 
 Manufactures, 303-327. 
 Supervisors in Twelfth Census, 479- 
 
 481, 497. 
 Tabulation, improved method m 
 
 Eleventh Census, 490. 
 Taxation, valuation and, 369-414 ; in 
 
 municipal finance, 429, 455, 459 ; 
 
 statistics of, according to race, 502. 
 Taxes, in expenses of jnanufactures, 
 
 337- 
 
 Tenancy and sales, 233. 
 
 Tenement house, defined in census, 
 II ; in English census, 64. 
 
 Transportation, investigation of, 4 ; 
 use of term in census, 87 ; Statis- 
 tics of, 246-256. 
 
 Trade, census use of term, 87. 
 
5i6 
 
 American Economic Association. 
 
 Urban Population. 65-67. 
 
 Ulpian, life tables of, 157. 
 
 Uruguay, immigration and emigra- 
 tion, 21. 
 
 Valuation, and taxation, census sta- 
 tistics, 429 ; summary for muni- 
 cipal finance, 455 ; according to 
 race, 502. 
 
 Valuation and Taxation, by C. C. 
 Plehn, 369-414. 
 
 Values, measurement of in manu- 
 factures, 265-269 ; gross, net and 
 actual, 275-279, 319 ; defective an- 
 alysis and misleading percentages, 
 279-283 ; of manufacturing estab- 
 lishments, 293 ; as a unit of meas- 
 urement in manufactures, 319. 
 
 Venn, Dr., graphical representation 
 of changes in condition of laborers, 
 368. 
 
 Virginia, uncertainty of boundary, 8. 
 
 Vital statistics, of negroes, 45 ; rela- 
 tion to statistics of occupation, 81 ; 
 publication of volumes on, 501. 
 
 Wages, of railway employees, 253 ; 
 in relation to values of manufac- 
 tures, 282 ; classification of returns, 
 298-302 ; census schedules, 319 ; in 
 city manufactures, 338-342. 
 
 Wage Statistics and the Federal 
 Census, by C. J. Bullock, 343-368. 
 
 Walker, F. A., on defective enumera- 
 tion of negroes in 1870, 40 ; on sta- 
 tistics of paupers, 188-191 ; contri- 
 biition of artisans to wealth of 
 country, 273 ; cloth printing and the 
 value of manufactures, 276 ; statist- 
 ics of values of manufactures, 281- 
 
 83 ; capital in manufactures, 284-286, 
 325 ; canvass of productive indus- 
 tries in cities, 306 ; special investi- 
 gation of manufactures, 346. 
 
 Waite, F. C, wages of officers and 
 clerks, 351. 
 
 Wargentin, — , Swedish life tables, 
 158. 
 
 Water companies, omitted from cen- 
 sus of wealth, 377. 
 
 Wealth, Taxation and Indebtedness, 
 by C. C. Plehn, 369-414. 
 
 Weeks, J. D., wages in manufactures, 
 351-352. 
 
 Welton, T. A., on local death rates in 
 England and Wales, 142. 
 
 Weyl, W. E., Statistics of Transpor- 
 tation, 246-256. 
 
 Wilbur, C. L., Mortality Statistics 
 of the Eleventh Census, 108-120 ; 
 plan to improve mortality statistics, 
 167. 
 
 Willcox, W. F. , Area, Population, 
 Birthplace, Migration, and Con- 
 jugal Condition, S-37 ; compara- 
 bility of census returns for negroes, 
 41 ; accuracy of registration records, 
 129. 
 
 Wines, F. H., outdoor poor, 192 ; 
 special census agent on crime, pau- 
 perism and benevolence, 195. 
 
 Women, in gainful occupations, 100, 
 
 lOI. 
 
 Wool manufacture, in relation to 
 value of manufactures, 276. 
 
 Wright, C. D., farm statistics, 223 ; 
 the premium on gold in 1870, 267 ; 
 the " average" wage, 299. 
 
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