(S. £-39 Cornell University Library HF 1755.E39 The American farmer's niarkets at home an 3 1924 013 819 861 1081 'U m IH •ani '-sojg pjoiXer) jepuig •oni '-sojg pmi^eQ THE iERlCAN >:FARMER'S MARKETS y!^7i^'5' AT HOME AND ABROAD; SUPPLEMENT, WING HOW PROTECTION, UNDER THE PRESENT TARIFF, IS DISTRIBUTED BETWEEN AGRICULTURE AND MANUFACTURES. ^ ,1 I M ill' BY WILLIAM ELDER. JA?^ 10 1936 A6RIC. CCOv' &. FAR?';; : ':. PHILADELPHIA: EiNGWAi/T & Ekown, Steam-Powee Book and Job PeintbeS, "Press" Building, 7th below Chestuwt. 1870. !>tate College of itgriculture m Cornell 1Hnibers(itp Stfjaca, ^. g. ILibrarp THE American Farmer's Markets, at Home and Abroad. Philadelphia, Dec. 28, 1869. Db. William Eldee— Dear Sir : As the snlaject of a change in the tariff is now ex- citing a good deal of interest, and as it is de- sirable that the whole community should be well informed upon the effect of protection upon agriculture, manufactures, commerce, and the general prosperity of the country, I have ventured to ask you to give me your views upon these matters, knowing that your intimate knowledge upon all these subjects well qualifies you to spea'k intelligently and with authority, based upon facts. Yours truly, S. M. Felion. Januaet 12, 1870. S. M. Fblton, Esq.— Dear Sir : Since the receipt of your note of the 28th ult. , I have been engaged upon the inquiries which it invites. The true interests of agriculture being, as I think, less generally understood than those of the other grand but dependent branches of our national industry, I have limited my re- ply almost exclusively to the "effect of Pro- tection" upon them ; and, apprehending some surprise, and even incredulity, as to the re- sults of the investigation, I have carefully given the authorities for the data employed, and have now only to submit their array, with the most obvious and direct inferences from them, to the candid consideration of those in whose service the work has been performed. Very respectfully, William Eldeb. 1824 Mt. Vernon street, Philadelphia. Marlcet for the Agricultural Pro^ ducts of the U. S. in tho Manu facturing Countries of Europe. By manufacturing countries of Europe are intended those from which the United States import foreign manufactures for con- sumption. They are : the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland, France, Spain, Portugal, Sweden and Norway, Denmark, Hamburg, Bremen, Holland, Belgium, Italy and Sicily. These are also the only coun- tries in Europe which purchase our agricul- tui-al exports. These exports consist of Indian corn and meal ; wheat and wheat flour ; rye and rye flour ; small grain, pulse and seeds ; lard and tallow ; bacon, hams, pork and beef ; butter and cheese. Small quantities of other provisions are also exported to Europe, such as bread and biscuit, rice and hops ; but much larger quantities of these are imported, and, in themselves, they are not worthy of notice here. Wool belongs to the class, but it never yet has made a market in Europe, nor has ever been exported in quantities equal to the value of the toys and doUs, or even to that of the playing cards, usually imported thence. Tobacco and cotton are not usually classed aa "agrieultural" products, being j more conveniently considered, and, owing to their commercial relations, treated sepa- rately and distinctively. Our exports of hides to Europe are so tri- vial that they need not be noticed. Our farmers do not look for a foreign marketfor them ; they do not supply the home de- mand; andour lumber market in Europe is quite as inconsiderable. An accurate analysis of our foreign mar- ket for farm products shows that the manu- facturing nations of Europe took, in the average of the last nine years, flfty-three (53) per cent, of the exports of aU our agri- cultural products to foreign countries, ex- cept of tobacco, cotton and lumber; and that the remainder go to Africa, Asia and America, north and south of us ; that is, a fraction over one-half to the countries from which we receive manufactured goods, and the other half to those from whom we re- ceive products such as our climate and soil do not yield, either in kind or quality. Tea and coffee represent the kind, and the coarse wool of South America and the to- bacco of Cuba the quality of articles for which we must depend upon foreign coun- tries for our necessary supplies. For this latter statement we refer to our ofilcial reports of commerce and navigation, which give the data here used as the report of our own direct trade vnth the foreign countries compared. But it should be re- membered that a very large portion of our exports to these European countries are either re-exported in form, or, after conver- sion, are carried to the countries which are not in the manufacturing class, for con- sumption there, and to such extent displace us in the carrying trade and commerce which our products supply. K this portion of our natural commerce were reclaimed, it would not be too much to say that full three-fom'ths of our foreign trade in home products (cotton and tobacco excepted) would be with the non-manufacturing coun- tries which consume them. These general facts must be carried along with us in the examination which we give to the details of our foreign commerce. Their statement, as preliminaries, indicates the drift of the present inquiry, and will serve to make its details clear and exact enough for its purposes. WJieat and Flowr, Our foreign market for wheat and flour stands first in rank and value, and serves, besides, as an index of our commerce in the other exports of agricidtural commodities. We give it, therefore, the chief place in considering the general subject. First, with re&peet to these, is the striking fact that the British islands are nearly oiir entire European market for them. In 1867-8; the exports to the United Kingdom amounted to ninety-five per cent, of the total to Europe ; and this may be taken for the average proportion. Let us now look at this nearly exclusive European market for our vrheat and flour in relation ■ to the quantity taken, and the steadiness or unsteadiness of the demand ; the general character of the trade as a re- liance for our farmers, and the competition which our wheat meets in the British mar- ket. Quoting from the British official rec- ords, we givej first, the total quantities of American wheat and' flour imported into Great Britain in the twelve years from 1857 to 1868 — ^the wheat flour being reduced to its equivalent in wheat, and given in hun- dred weights, (cwts.) From the Uiuted States, ninety-five million cwts. ; from other countries, two hundred and sixty-one and one-third millions cwts., the proportion of the United States being twenty-six and two- thirds per cent, of the total import. Our share of this quantity amoimted in wheat to one hundred and seventy-seven millions of bushels ; or an average of fourteen and three-quarters millions of bushels per an- num, while other nations supplied an aver- age of forty and three-quarters miUions per annum. Thus, in the period we furnished but a fraction over one-fourth of the British consumption of foreign wheat. But this is an average, and so it covers and conceals the other most important feature of the trade, its fluctuatioiis. Grouping, for brevity of statement, the whole period into terms of four years each, which arrangement conforms fairly enough to the general range of the fluctuations of quantity, we find them strikingly exhibited in the following tabular statement : Years. 1857-«0 1861-64 1866-68 From the tr. S. cwt. 19,179,442 59,322,169 16,551,607 Total, 12 y'ls.. 96,053,118 261,353,008 Other countries. cwt. 73,500,165 74,655,294 113,297,649 U. S. per cent, of total. 26.66 Here we have about three times more of our wheat taken in the second group of years than in the first ; and in the third group more than three and a-half times less than in the second. But even this statement does not show the great inconstancy of the import. In the calendar year 1863 it rose to 40,638,162 bushels; in 1859 it was but 803,- 607 bushels; and again, in 1865, it was down to 3,784,014 bushels— the market increasing in three years more than fifty fold, and fall- ing in three more years to one-fourteenth of the highest year. How does such incon- stancy as this suit for the market of a pro- duct that must be provided a year in ad- vance of its fate? But if the demand as to quantity runs wild in this way, what of the price in the English market, and its relation to quantity taken? The quantities and rates given by the British authority answer this question conclusively. In the four years 1854-5-6-7, the aggregate imports of American wheat and flour were the equivalent of 38,764,581 bushels of wheat. The prices ranged thus in these four years : 71s. 3d., 88s. 9d., 70s., and 58s. 9d. per imperial quarter. The ag- gregate value at these several prices amount- ed to £16,063,317, putting the bushel at an average of $3 01. The prices in the years 1858, '59 and '60 were moderate, and the quantity taken a little less, in the per an- num average, than in the four preceding years, which, (1854-7,) it wiU be recollected, embraced the Crimean war period, which must account for the somewhat laa'ger im- port at the higher rate. Now, compare the four year period, 1861- 3-3^ in which the imports rose in the ag- gregate to 110,734,715 bushels, and the ag- gregate value to £31,773,171, which puts the price per bushel down to $1 39. Thus we find that when the imports average $3 01 per bushel, the average quantity taken was 9,691,145 bushels per annum. When the price fell below $1 40, the annual import was 37,683,679 bushels, or almost three times the quantity for four years together, as against the other four years of the neces- sarily greater demand occasioned by the Crimean war then proceeding. Here the price, not the exigency, determined the quantity. As to the third period of our tabular statement, in which the American wheat and flour in the British market fell to only one-eighth of the whole foreign supply in quantity — from flfty-nine to sixteen mil- lions cwts. — ^the price had not risen so as to account for the prodigious reduction of quantity, for it averaged no more than $1 35 per bushel during this period, which is even five cents less than the price which we are assuming as the cause of the former inordi- nate consumption. Another cause, more effectual and more perilous to the American farmer's interest, in his only European Market, had begun to display its force. The sign and proof of its action, and of its threatened continuance and iQcreasing effect, are found in the fol- lowing facts : In the ten years previous to 1861, however much the imports of American wheat varied, they stiU averaged about ten miUions of bushels per annum ;' in the four years 1861-4> as ah-eady stated, they rose to nearly twenty-eight miUions per annum, but in the four subsequent years, 1865-8, they fell, notwithstanding the tempting reduction of price, wliich always before commanded a comparatively large market in England, to the lowest figure ever touched previous to that time —to seven and three-quarter miUions of bushels ! Ewropean Competition in the Eng- lish Provision Market. The explanation of this extraordinary turn in the fortunes of our wheat in the Eng- lish market is found in a plain but pregnant sentence of President Grant, at the opening of the present session of Congress. He says : "The extension of railroads in Europe and the Mast is bringing into competition with our agricultural products like products of ■other countries." The inference which the President draws from this imminent destruc- tion of our market in Europe for the surplus of our agricultural staples is in these words: ^' Self-interest, if not self-preservation, there- fore, dictates caution against disturbing any industrial interest of the country. It teaches us, also, the necessity of looking to other MABKBTS FOR THE BALE OF OTJK StrRPLTTS." We have seen where the competition which he mentions lies. It is in the 87 J per cent, of the total supply of England fur- nished by our European rivals in the years 1865-6-7-8, as shown in our table. The "other countries" — ^those mentioned or in- tended — are Russia, Prussia, Prance, the Turkish dominions in Europe, Spaiu and Egypt. The priacipal wheat-growing regions of these countries have now fairly entered upon such improved communications with Great Britain as well accounts for the decline of our market for breadstuffs and provisions there, and for the apprehension expressed in the message that we must look about for better and surer customers elsewhere. Where? The President names "Our neigh- bors south of the United States and CMna and Japan." What hope there is in these quarters is indicated plainly by the fact that of our wheat and wheat flour exported in the fiscal year 1867-8, amounting in custom- house values, currency prices, to$51,135,480, all the manufacturing countries of Europe took to the value of $39,871,000, while those other countries to which: the President re- fers took and consumed the balance, $21,- 264,330 worth ; to England and all the rest of Europe 58 per centi ; to the countries south of lis and China and Japan 42 per cent. But these figures do not represent the usual proportion of our farmers' interest in the markets of Europe. For instance, of all our agricultural exports in the fiscal year 1859-60, tobacco and cotton excepted, the total value was, in round numbers $40,000,- 000, and of this total the manufacturing countries of Europe took less than fifteen millions, or only 37|^ per cent., while the "other countries" gave us a market for 63| per cent., and consumed what they took. There is not another subject within the whole range of conmiercial statistics to which the measure of averages applies so delusively as to our foreign trade in farm products. An honest and clear view of them compels a constant resort to details, and to the circum- stances which rule their extravagant fluc- tuati(ws. Theprestidigitaiev^S! of statistics. by a dexterous use of averages and percent- ages, can make the records of our foreign trade prove almost anything they please. This must justify jne in involving the data employed with their necessary explanations. Tn the matter just now considered, the comparative amount and the economic value of our trade with manufacturing and with non-manufacturing nations, respectively, are properly thus explained : In the year 1860, when these exports were so trifling in quan- tity, our wheat was at $1 75 per bushel in England. In 1868, when the much larger per centage of our products was taken in Europe, the price was down to $1 85, leav- ing to the Western farmer about $1 06 in the year of the smaller demand, and only 66 cents when the larger quantity was taken. The rule being, that, when rates are any- thing Uke Tcmunerative, Europe buys but little of our farm products, say three-eighths of the total exports; when the rates are ruinous to the cultivator, they rise, to some- thing approaching three-fifths. The condition of the English. market for several months past, and its prospects in the immediate future, are a decisive and a se- vere confirmation of this rule. Since the last of September,. 1869, our whea,t has fallen in London audi Liverpool twenty-five cents in gold per bushel. Bed. winter is re- ported on the ipth of Januaryr IS'J'O, at $1 25; red western. at $1 16. During the time of this ruinous decline of price the iip- ports have been immense. The telegraphic reports read, thus : " 30th December, tjie receipts of American wheat stiU very large ; ar great accumulation of wheat both here (London) and at Liyerpool ; seventy-four more cargoes of wheat afloat bound for Eng- land than at the corresponding period last '^ear." "31st December,received at Liverpool wheat in last three days, 100, 000 bushes, all American." "January 10th, receipts at Liv- erpool for three days, 240,000 bushels, of which 216,000 from Ainerioa." How strongly the history" of our trade supports the President's warning, and how absolutely w;orthless and, hopeless the mar- kets of Europe are in comparispi^wtb those of the other countries he names, I need not help any intelligent student of the facts to see. Borne Market. But there is still another market to be provided and secured, by means plainly in- dicated in the President's allusion to the manufacturing interests of the country, and which he cautions us against disturbing. This is the home market, the best of e3i markets; the great market which General Jackson names in his letter to Dr. Coleman, where he says: "Take from agriculture in the United States six hundred thousand men, women and children, and you wiU at once give a home market for more bread- stuffs than aU Europe now furnishes iis." In 1834, when this letter was written, the exigency of the fanning interests of the country was expressed by Creneral Jackson in striking harmony with General Grant's apprehensions of the like peril now. Jack- son says: "Except for cotton the American farmer has no market, either at home or abroad." General Grant sees just as clearly that we are losing that particular foreign market which we have been accustomed to regard with hope, and to bend all our pohcy to secure. The difference of conditions con- sists in this; that forty-five years ago nothing was done by Congressional legislation to promote that kind of domestic industry which withdraws the injurious surplus of labor and capital from agriculture, and at the same time invites that immigration which alone can build up a home market ; while now, our statesman at the hehn of national affairs has only to caution us against "disturbing those industrial inter- ests of the country" — ^meaning our manu- factures — "which are increasing vrith won- derful rapidity, under the encouragement which they now receive," and thus are doing exactly what General Jackson so strongly urged upon the national legislature. Producer's Share of the Price in Europe. Hitherto we have been examining our European trade in breadstuffs and provi- sions, as it is usually measured by quantity and commercial Yalus; but the exposure of the faets in this form does not reach the heart of the question; and we must give a moment's attention to the farrmer'a interest in it. The question of quantity or amount of demand for his products is solved when we see that of the two hundred mUhons of bushels of wheat which the country pro- duces, Europe affords in the long run a market for something less than ten miUions, or five per cent, of the whole; but the price it brings in _^rs< han,da needs some explana- tion. We here give the particulars upon which the calculation depends, on the best authorities which we can command. Putting a bushel of red winter wheat at $1.30, (nine shillings per one himdred pounds. ) its price in Liverpool on Christmas eve, 1869, we find its value in gold to the Western farmer by the following deduction: Carriage from Chicago to New York, $0.30 •Marine freight 16 Marine insurance 02}^ Commission 03 Handling 02 Charges from Chicago to Liverpool... |0.63J^ * Marine freight ranges all the way from 4d. to lOd. by steamers: by sail vessels from 6d. to lOd. To this must be added the expense of placmg it in Chicago : Currency. Storage and commission $0.05 Insurance and loss OOJ^ Carriage to Chicago 10 Handling , 03 Equal in gold to f 0.18>^. $0.18K Total deduction from price in Liverpool, f 69, leaving to the farmer $0 61 in gold — 73 cents currency — per bushel. It is obvious that the expense here given must vary with locaUties, and other condi- tions affecting the cost of dehvery at the Atlantic port of export, reducing or increas- ing the total expense as may be ; and it is also obvious that there are or may be other circumstances — such as intermediate profits and charges — not here estimated, which will stiU further diminish the value of wheat in first hands. This price is ruinous to the farmer, who has encountered our home rate of wages, interest upon the capital, and all the other incidents of production, in the year in which his wheat was grown. When all the facts of this commerce are well considered, the conclusion seems in- evitable that they should, in the language of the President, "teach us the necessity of looking to other markets for the sale of our surplus." Our inquiry shows that, in the past, Eu- rope has given us at best a ruinously incon- stant market for these products ; that the fluctuations of quantity and price have been ahke injurious ; that the reflected effect upon home prices covers nineteen-twentieths of the annual crop with the mischiefs which the other twentieth encoimters abroad ; and that, finally, the accustomed reliance is about to be wholly destroyed by the grow- ing competition for Europe-grown wheat in our only European market. Some one will answer, perhaps, that the disposal of any portion of our surplus, at any price, covering the bare cost of trans- portation, reheves the home market to that extent ; which might be true, if we had no other choice. But how is it if a clear view of the worthlessness of this commerce shoiild have the effect of turning our attention and our policy toward the substitution and cul- tivation of a better trade ? This is the purpose of the demonstration here made; and to this the plea just noticed has no appUcation or force. The remedy, effective, assured and final, is to throw Eu- rope out of the aims and efforts of our poli- cy in the commerce of our agricultural sur- pluses, and to direct all our efforts to the es- tablishment and extension of the other, and better and more reUable and remunerative markets, which are and must be so, because they are the natural outlets for our products of this kind. Whatever turn thi s trade may take, let it be remembered that for a bushel of wheat sold at $1 40 in Liverpool the far- mer receives just one-half of that sum, and that this is really from five to ten cents above the average price during the last nine years. For the seven immediately preceding years the average was $1 80 per bushel. Then the farmer got, or, without counting against him the intermediate profits of dealers and transporters, might have got $1 11 for his ■wbeat, and a market for only nine million bushels per annum. In tlie later period of nine years he has been receiving but sixty- six cents gold, and has had a market for an average of less than eighteen miUions, fluc- tuating from fifty millions in the calendar year 1862 to two miUions in 1866. But our home market is now terribly de- pressed. WTieat is below 80 cents in Chi- cago, notwithstanding the tariff upon for- eign imports averages nearly 50 per cent. And where, in tliis state of things, shall the blame be thrown? Surely not upon the tariff because of its rates of duties. The only effect which high duties can have — ^the only effect charged against them by the op- ponents — ^is that they must depress exports by restricting or reducing imports. Let us see. In the ten years, 1851-1860, the aver- age annual imports of foreign goods amount- ed to two himdred and eighty milUons ; the highest year of the period, 1860, to three hundred and sixty-two miUions, which, but for the outbreak of the rebellion, would have produced a general financial crash. But now, in the fiscal year 1868-9, the im- ports rose to four hundred and thirty-seven miUions, and have continued at an equal rate of increase up to December 31, 1869 — no less than one hundred and fifty-seven miUions, or 58 per cent, above the period be- fore the rebeUion. The mischief is in this excess, which the present tariff has not been high enough to repress or prevent. This is the only valid charge against it. Free-Trade Theory of Interna- tional Trade. Underlying the error of poUcy which has so long blinded us to the worthlessness of our European trade in farm products, is a miscalled principle of international com- merce, which ought to be disposed of for the security of the conclusions to which the facts and figures of the analysis of this trade have led us. It is usually put in the form of a self-proving aphorism, self-proving, and refusing proof, for the simple reason that it is incapable of any other method of sup- port. We are told that " to sell our surplus we must buy that of the nations we would deal with." This abstract proposition may be very safely and justly confessed and avoided — confessed as to whatever of truth it contains, and avoided as to the appUca- tion made of it. The questions : What na- tions must we buy from ? and, What com- modities must we buy from them ? in order to secure good customers for our products, and a profitable distribution of our own la^ bor ;',nd capital power, ai-e the real points at issue. Must we purchase the products of skUled labor from Europe to find cus- tomers for our crude commodities ? This is not the teaching of any general law of international trade. England im- ports no manufactures ; yet her foreign trade grows beyond all precedent. It grew under her protective system proportionally as fast as it has done since 1846, because that protection was virtually exclusion of all rival industries, just as her present su- periority in production is effectual prohibi- tion. Her imports increased two hundred and seventy-five per cent, in twenty years, from 1846 to 1866 ; although. If even flour be classed as a manufacture, the total did not exceed five per cent, of these immense imports, which were valued in the last year of the period at thirteen hundred and thirty-four millions of dollars. France, also, whose system was nearly prohibitory of all imports which could in anywise compete for her home market with her own industry, in twenty years, from 1836 to 1856, increased her aggregate imports and exports one hun- dred and twenty two per cent. Our Foreign Trade Largest under our Sigliest Tariffs, The same thing is true of our own for- eign trade. It increased faster forty years ago, under the very high tariff of 1838, than uncter the low one which succeeded it and was abandoned in 1843 for its destructive effects upon both our domestic industry and foreign trade. The following table gives the facts of these contrasted periods under their respectively opposite systems of com- mercial policy : Total Exports in 1827, |S7,878,H7. " " "1834, 80,623,662, Increase in 7 years, 39X per cent. ' 1841, 103,636,236, " " 7 " 28% " " Aggregate of duty-paying imports of 7 years, 1828-34, $507,200,000, Duties, $166,750, ^* .1^ le who avoid the trc thinking before they speak, say tlJ hundred and sixty-four millions wcj the pockets of the factory monopolisl are simply ignorant of the fact that \ of it .was levied roaUy in protection' farmers of the coimtry, and that thi of it went into the vaults of the treasury. Moreover, they don't se6 aware that the manufacturers' shar the commodities in the market is n(| than one-sixth of the values consij the year ; and that the other five-sii to the farmer and the laborer, and t| this reason, the effects of protect!^ upon foreign imports cannot be upon more than their respective slj the products annually consumed. We question, besides, whether the wit of man to legislate for an inl or producing class against the intel any or aU other classes, by any genet It would be about as easy to pile up I water above their level. There is a I uting force at work in business affaii equalizes all advantages, so that member be honored, aU the other nl rejoice with it." But this is not tlij which we now desire to press, thoug the strongest one in the whole quesi Note. — The following statements how unequal were tlie rates of duty i levied upon several classes of importl yea,rs 1867-R, and how unjustly mamrfa iu general ,ire cha.rged with the generr age upou the total duty-paying impoj Sugar and molasses paid 63.74 pff unmanufactured tobacco, 113.34 ; oigj ued at S45 and over, IS'-.S ; brandy amf 303.0; wines, 77.0; woolens, 66.88; glafi linens, 35.34; cottons, 41. r,l; iron and st| manufactures of, 47.03 ; average on r| cultural products, not embodied inl fabrics, 21.1 per cent. — aU in gold vail average premium for the year bein^ cent., which would raise tlie dutlesj rency on sugar, for instance, to 83 cent., and on the other ola'ises of imp the like proportion. ;■:;:■: