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 http://www.archive.org/details/cu31924030370476 
 
THE STATISTICAL WORK OF aUSSMILCH 
 
 BY 
 
 F. S. "CRUM, B.L., MX., Ph.D. 
 
 PEESENTED TO THE UNIVERSITY FACULTY OF CORNELL 
 
 UNIVERSITY AS A THESIS FOR THE DEGREE OF 
 
 DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY, MAY, 1897. 
 
 BOSTON, 1901. 
 
 Reprinted from Quarterly Publications of the American Statistical 
 Association, September, 1901. ■ - 
 

 or 
 
Cornell University Library 
 HA23.S94 C95 
 
 The statistical work of Sussmllch 
 
 olin 
 
 3 1924 030 370 476 
 
 THE STATISTICAL WORK OF SUSSMILCH. 
 
 By Frederick S. Crum, B.L., M.L., Ph.D. 
 
 The subject here presented was chosen for a doctor's dissertation 
 while the writer was pursuing studies in statistics, economics, and 
 sociology in Cornell University. The discovery was m^de that a 
 copy of one of the first imprints of Siissmilch's Die Gottliche Ordnung, 
 dated 1742, and an exceedingly rare book, was available in the 
 library of the Surgeon-General in Washington, D. C. Through the 
 courtesy of the librarian of the Surgeon-General's library the copy 
 was loaned to the University for a limited period, and the writer's 
 interest thus aroused induced him to choose for the subject of his 
 thesis The Statistical Work of Silssmilch. 
 
 The bibliography of the writings of Siissmilch, which forms 
 Part iv of the following essay, was published as a trial bibliogra- 
 phy in The Quarterly Publications of the American Statistical Asso- 
 ciation, September, 1897, under the joint authorship of Professor 
 Walter F. Willcox and the present writer. Acknowledgment is here 
 gratefully made of the assistance rendered by Professor Willcox in 
 the compilation of the bibliography, and for many helpful suggestions 
 and kindly criticisms throughout the preparation of the following 
 paper. Thanks are also due to the librarians of the principal libra- 
 ries of Europe and America for their prompt and willing assistance 
 in the work of making the bibliography as complete and accurate as 
 
2 The Statistical Work of Siissmilch. 
 
 possible, and particularly to Professor v. John of Innsbruck, and 
 Professor R. Boeckb of Berlin, who were able to add several titles 
 to those we had compiled, and to correct some that were included in 
 our original list. 
 
 If any apology is needed for the following somewhat extended 
 discussion of Siissmilch, it is found in the fact that he occupies a 
 unique place in the historical development of population statistics, 
 and heretofore there has been no presentation, in English, of his 
 work and ideas at all adequate to meet the requirements of American 
 and English students of the subject. 
 
 I. Biographical Sketch. ' 
 
 The Siissmilch family can be traced back to northeastern 
 Bohemia, where it received from Maximilian I, in 1513, the 
 hereditary judgeship of the Lusatian stronghold of Tollen- 
 stein, situated about three miles from Zittau. Christof 
 Siissmilch held this office of judge from 1600 to 1634, and 
 his second son, Elias, the great-grandfather of Johann Peter 
 Siissmilch, succeeded him. This Elias had been led to 
 embrace the Protestant faith, but his second wife persuaded 
 him to turn again to the Roman Church. By his first mar- 
 riage he had one son, also named Elias, the grandfather of 
 Johann Peter. This son did not favor his father's change of 
 belief and himself remained a Protestant. As a result of 
 his religious convictions he was exposed in 1650 to the per- 
 secutions which the Bohemian Protestants suffered at the 
 hands of the Emperor Ferdinand III, and in addition was 
 subjected to harassments by the relatives of his step-mother. 
 It is chronicled that young Elias preferred the safety of his 
 
 1 No good biography of Siissmilch exists. John , who has written a short sketch of 
 Siissmilch's life in the Deutsche Biographies there mentions the only sources from which 
 he was able to get his facts. These were three in number : Christian Forster's biogra- 
 phy, 1768 ; a biography in the 18th part of Neuen Gelehrten Europa ,- and a short 
 biographical sketch in Formey's Histoire de VAcad&mie Hoyale des Sci&nces et Belles- 
 lettres, 1767. John considers ITorster's account to be the most complete and satisfactory. 
 Jolin's article in vol. xxxvii of the Deutsche Biographic, and Formey's sketch are the 
 sources relied upon for the facts here presented, 
 
The Statistical Worlc of Sussmilch. 3 
 
 soul to the perservation of his temporal goods, and fled from 
 his native country. Having exhausted his means, he engaged 
 in military service under the Great Elector, Frederick 
 William, in Brandenburg. His ability soon won him pro- 
 motion to the office of Lieutenant-Master of the Watch, and 
 he enjoyed the special favor of the Elector. After the battle 
 of Fehrbellin, this old Protestant warrior retired to his 
 estate at Zehlendorff, situated halfway between Berlin and 
 Potsdam. 
 
 The eldest son of this military favorite was Johaun Peter's 
 father, John Elias. In his youth he had visited France, 
 England, and Holland, and had seen most parts of his own 
 country. On one of liis journeys he visited the old family 
 estate in Bohemia. He at that time was offered the property 
 and office his father had abandoned if he would embrace the 
 Catholic religion, but he refused to be bribed into apostacy. 
 He married Marie Blell, daughter of Peter Blell, master dyer 
 at Brandenburg, and established himself in Berlin as a grain 
 dealer and proprietor of a brewery. 
 
 Johann Peter Siissmilch was the eldest son of these well- 
 to-do, sturdy and honest Brandenburgers. He was born in 
 Berlin in 1707. His parents resolved to spare no expense 
 in procuring him an excellent education, and we gather from 
 his biographers that young Siissmilch heartily responded to 
 his parents' desire and eagerly embraced the exceptional 
 advantages placed within his reach. 
 
 His early youth was spent in the village of Brandenburg, 
 with his grandparents, the Blells. In 1716 he entered the 
 college of Berlin, where he remained six years. At this 
 institution he seems to have shown a strong liking for natural 
 history. Frisch, his instructor in natural history, to better 
 acquaint his students with the elements of the natural 
 sciences, took his classes on short excursions to the neigh- 
 boring fields and woods. We are told that on these expedi- 
 tions young Siissmilch excelled all his fellows in the zeal 
 
4 The Statistical Work of Sussmilch. 
 
 with which he collected stones, shells, insects, and botanical 
 specimens. At this early age was apparently evinced that 
 natural bent which was later to serve him so well in the 
 collection of statistical data. 
 
 In 1724 Siissmilch attended the Anatomical Institute in 
 Berlin, which had just been organized. At this time he was 
 ambitious to become a physician, but in deference to his 
 parents' wishes he left Berlin to pursue the study of law in 
 a Latin school at Halle. Law proved distasteful, and in the 
 meantime he had become interested in theology, and he 
 finally persuaded his parents to consent to a substitution of 
 theology for law. 
 
 Like many other young men, Siissmilch seems to have 
 experienced much difficulty in making choice of a profession. 
 Theology, however, proved agreeable to his tastes, and having 
 definitely decided to make this profession his life work he 
 devoted himself to it with his characteristic energy. In 1727 
 he was in attendance at Fried richs-Universitat, Halle, where 
 he pursued the study of Hebrew and the related oriental lan- 
 guages with a zeal that endangered his health. In 1728 he 
 went to Jena where he remained two and a half years studying 
 theology and philosophy under the most famous teachers of 
 the time. It was while a student at Jena that he acquired a 
 taste for academic life, and even aspired to become the occu- 
 pant of some university chair. His parents, however, would 
 not listen to such a proposal, and his college career closed 
 when, in 1733, he defended his thesis, Dissertatio de cohaesione 
 et attractione corporum, written at Jena under the direction 
 of Hamberger. 
 
 Before he had completed his thesis young Siissmilch had 
 been asked to accept the position of private tutor to the 
 eldest son of Marshal Kalckstein. The offer was accepted 
 and, as private tutor, he remained with Kalckstein four 
 years when, in 1736, he was made chaplin of the Kalckstein 
 regiment. 
 
The Statistical Work of Silssmilch. 5 
 
 In 1738 Siissmilch preached in the King's cabinet, and 
 several times subsequently the same honor was accorded him. 
 In 1740 he was offered the curacy of Ezien, but at about that 
 time the First Silesian War broke out Snd he considered it 
 his duty to march with the Kalckstein regiment. It was 
 during this campaign that he wrote the preface to the tirst 
 edition of Die Gottliche Ordnung. The campaign ended, 
 the young chaplin resumed his ministerial functions, preach- 
 ing first at Ezien and later in the church of St. Peter in 
 Berlin. 
 
 In Berlin Siissmilch soon acquired an enviable reputation 
 as a preacher and scholar. In 1745 he was admitted to 
 membership in the Berlin Academy, and five years later 
 another honor was paid him in his election to membership in 
 the newly organized Supreme Consistory. 
 
 The masterpiece of his literary efforts was Die Gottliche 
 Ordnung. The spare moments of his life were spent in 
 writing, revising, extending, and defending this statistical 
 work, the subject matter of which is sufficient evidence of 
 the indefatigable industry of its author, 
 
 Siissmilch married at the age of thirty Charlotte Dorothy 
 Lieberkuhn. We are assured by his biographers that his 
 home life was exceptionally felicitous, and that he was never 
 so happy as when in his library, surrounded by the books 
 which he had collected at great expense. He was blessed 
 with ten children, nine of whom with his wife survived him. 
 He died from an attack of apoplexy, March 22, 1767, at the 
 age of sixty. 
 
 With this brief sketch of the life of Siissmilch we pass to 
 a consideration of. the contents of his principal literary work. 
 Die Gottliche Ordnung.^ 
 
 1 For an extended discnpsion of the bibliography of Sugemilch, the birth of his idea to 
 write Die Gottliche Ordviuvg, and the -varions editions through which it passed, see 
 Part iv. 
 
6 The Statistical Work of Sussmilch. 
 
 II. Silssmilch's Theory of Population as Developed in '■'Die 
 Gottliche Ordnung."'^ 
 
 Like the Mercantilists, Siissmilch was firmly convinced 
 that the power, prosperity, and happiness of a state or nation 
 largely depends upon the number of its inhabitants and upon 
 the rapidity of their increase. Starting with this assumption, 
 he repeatedly emphasizes it. 
 
 The Creator intended that man should multiply and fill 
 the earth, and to this end uttered the command : "Be fruitful 
 and multiply, and replenish the earth, and subdue it." That 
 this command may be fulfilled, certain conditions are nec- 
 essary. The number of births must, on the average, exceed 
 that of deaths. There must be some conformity to law, or 
 a regularity in diseases. They must be so proportioned and 
 distributed as to bring about a proper average duration of 
 life. It is necessary also that there be a regularity in the 
 propagation of the two sexes.^ 
 
 Siissmilch sets out to demonstrate, with more thorough- 
 ness than any of his predecessors had done, that the phe- 
 nomena of birth, marriage, disease, and death are bound 
 together in a most perfect, complete, and beautiful system. 
 'The perfection of this system QOrdnung^ is the result of 
 ,' divine interference and control, otherwise it might be over- 
 . turned at any moment. The striking regularities in these 
 vital phenomena, the manifestations of which, to the casual 
 observer, are apparently so fortuitous, furnish a strong founda- 
 tion for belief in a God, who with concealed hand, binds 
 together the various rules of this vrhole system in a beautiful 
 and durable union for the attainment of His great design — 
 that men shall constantly increase upon the earth.^ As 
 regards the generation, duration, and preservation of our 
 lives, God is an infinite and exact arithmetician.* 
 
 1 References, nnless otherwise stated, are to the second edition (Berlin, 1761-62) of Die 
 Gottliche Ordnung. 
 
 2 Vol. 1. Introduction, 
 a Vol. i, sect. 16. 
 
 » Vol. i, sect. 17. 
 
The Statistical Work of Sussmilch. 1 
 
 The very title of the book, Die Gottliche Ordnung, reflects 
 with sufficient clearuess the notion that the conformities to 
 law in social life find their explanation in divine supervision. 
 
 In commenting upon the utility of his work,-' Siissmilch 
 observes that the chief benefit to be derived from its study 
 IS the knowledge which it affords of the divine oversight 
 of the changes to which the inhabitants of the earth are sub- 
 ject. " Everything is arranged according to definite numbers 
 and proportions. J\Ien are born and men die, but always in 
 a certain ratio. Children are born, sons and daughters pro- 
 miscuously, but without violation of the order once chosen 
 by Providence. Men die, at first sight, irregularly as regards 
 age, but, upon more exact observation, in accordance with 
 fixed proportions. Now, as man contributes little or n(. thing 
 to all this, and more accidental events are chimeras worthy 
 of derision, we are strengthened in the truth that God cares 
 for the human race." 
 
 Throughout this discussion Sussmilch is dominated by 
 theological and teleological conceptions. The final cause of 
 the wonderful conformities to law in the movements of popu- 
 lation is God; the ultimate purpose in view is tiie increase 
 of mankind. 
 
 Siissmilch's ideas respecting the dynamic changes in popu- 
 lation may conveniently be grouped under three heads : (1) 
 The increase of the human race; (2) marriage and fecundity; 
 and (3) mortality. 
 
 1. The Increase of the Human Hace. — Siissmilch estimated 
 that, with liberal allowances, the population of the earth 
 could not be over 1080 millions, while it might easily support 
 at least 5000 millions. He therefore emphatically denies 
 that war, pestilence, or famine are necessary to maintain an 
 equilibrium between population and subsistence.^ The actual 
 population of the world being far short of the possible popu- 
 
 1 Preface to the first edition of Die Gotiliclie Ordnung. 
 ! Vol. ii, pp. 177, 232. Also vol. i, sect. 204. 
 
8 The Statistical Work of Siissmilch. 
 
 lation, an increase of mankind is the normal and proper 
 condition of things.^ 
 
 The proportion of births to deaths is dependent upon laws 
 of mortality and fecundity, the limits of which are so fixed 
 by the Creator that an excess of births over deaths every- 
 where prevails when whole provinces are taken into account 
 and the period observed is normal.^ In cities, owing to 
 peculiar conditions, not infrequently deaths exceed births. 
 When, however, the observation is of an entire province or 
 country the deaths cannot exceed the births, except during 
 an epidemic period, or unless the country is exceptionally 
 full of people and the opportunities for the maintenance of 
 new families are all taken. Regarding Prussia, Sweden, and 
 England as fairly typical countries, Siissmilch concludes, 
 from data gathered in those countries, that the average ratio 
 of births to deaths for an entire country is 13 to 10, or at 
 least 11 to 10. As a natural corollary he declares that the 
 population is not stationary but increasing, an opinion by no 
 means universally held at that time.^ 
 
 From the data at his command Siissmilch considered the 
 general average period required for a population to double 
 in numbers to about 100 years.* He recognizes, however, 
 that the rate largely depends upon the conditions of time 
 and place. 
 
 Had it not been for the devastations wrought by pestilence, 
 war, famine, and other plagues, the world would long since 
 
 1 It is interesting to note the metliod employed by Siissmilch to determine the number 
 of people whom the earth might support. He estimated that an English square mile 
 could, under proper tillage, support at least 200 inhabitants. On this assumption Europe 
 might support 550 millions of people, whereas, from the best information available, he 
 concluded that it contained only about 130 millions. The estimates of the actual popula- 
 tion of the various countries of Europe and of the world were necessarily quite arbitrary, 
 owing to the fact that enumerations of populations even in small districts were seldom 
 made. It was therefore necessary in any attempt to obtain the population of a country 
 t^imv^ to resort to various indirect methods. So far as we know, Siissmilch's calculations 
 of the population of the earth were fairly good, and comrare favorably willi other esti- 
 mates made in the 18th century. 
 
 ' Vol. 1, sect. 120. 3 Vol. i, sect. 140. •■ Vol. i, sects. 140-146. 
 
The. Statistical Work of Sussmilch. 9 
 
 have been fully populated.^ Of all the obstacles to increase, 
 the pest is undoubtedly the most detrimental. Its ravages 
 vary greatly. Sometimes one-twelfth ; sometimes one-third 
 or one-half the population of a district are struck down by 
 it.2 The mortality from the pest can be considerably modi- 
 fied, and the danger of its visitation lessened by proper health 
 regulations. It is a greater menace to mankind than war, 
 because it not only blights the tree in the twigs and branches, 
 but also in its very roots. It not only destroys adults and 
 breaks up marriages ; it smites also children and babes.^ 
 
 Siissmilch denounces war as a monster, and a stain upon 
 reason, humanity, and Christendom. It robs the state of 
 many of its best men. Marriages are broken up by the pre- 
 mature death of husbands, whose widows for tlie most part 
 fail to re-marry. As the two sexes are approximately equal 
 at the marriageable age, war, by destroying large numbers 
 of the young men, leaves many maidens unwed. Means of 
 subsistence are rendered more difficult to. obtain by the 
 damage inflicted by war upon manufactures and commerce. 
 Finally, war fosters pestilence and famine, two powerful 
 checks on the increase of mankind.* 
 
 Famine is the most terrible of all afiSictions, but, fortu- 
 nately, its visitations are infrequent. It is much to be 
 dreaded, however, and governments should see to it that 
 proper storehouses of food are provided against emergencies.^ 
 The destruction of population by floods and earthquakes is 
 slight in comparison with the mortality caused by the other 
 enemies of mankind.^ 
 
 Polygamy has given rise to eunuchism, a wide-spread custom 
 detrimental to population.'' What eunuchism is to the East 
 celibacy is to the West.^ Celibacy is to be unsparingly con- 
 demned, because it checks the increase of population, and 
 
 1 Vol. ii, sect. 168. * Vol. i, sects. 183-188. ' Vol. i, sects. 193-1%. 
 
 2 Vol. i, sect. 180. = Vol. i, sects. 189-191. « Vol. il, sects. 197-203. 
 
 3 Vol. i, sect. 182. Vol. i, sect. 192. 
 
10 The, Statistical Work of SussmilcK. 
 
 corrupts the morals. The Catholic church and standing 
 armies are the causes of this great hindrance to the growth 
 of population. 
 
 Siissmilch was a firm believer in gover/nental interference 
 if in any way it would promote the increase of the popu- 
 lation. The three primary aims of the state, he maintains, 
 are the happiness, secuiity, and wealth of its members. 
 Population is the foundation of all three.^ A ruler should 
 learn to value his subjects. He should be interested in them 
 not merely because they are his fellow citizens, but also 
 because they are the tools with which the general happiness, 
 power, safety, and wealth of the state are secured.^ Rulers 
 should therefore employ all possible means to promote popu- 
 lation, and to remove all obstacles to its increase. 
 
 The pleasures of a people are enhanced by their being in 
 close relation with each other. This is the reason that life 
 in the city is preferred to life in the country.^ The exchange 
 of products, and the satisfaction of the varied needs, can 
 be more easily accomplished when the population is compact. 
 The more men there are in a state, who by their industry 
 not only create the most indispensable necessities of life but 
 also an excess, so much the more readily can the state grow 
 in wealth and power by the exchange of the surplus for the 
 precious metals.* 
 
 No obstructions should be placed in the way of marriage. 
 When the proportion of inhabitants to the annual number 
 of marriages rises, it is a sign that marriage is restricted. 
 It is the duty of a ruler to oppose celibacy and to encourage 
 matrimony. 
 
 Agriculture, the mainstay of a country, should be care- 
 fully fostered.^ Manufactures, trade, and the arts have their 
 great value, but they must not be exalted above agriculture. 
 If a country is to contain the largest possible number of 
 
 1 Vol. i, sect. 206. 3 Vol. i, sect. 206. '• Vol. ii, chap, xv, and vol. i, sect. 221. 
 
 2 Vol. i, sect. 209. « Vol. i, sect. 208. 
 
The Statistical Worh of SUssmilch. 11 
 
 inhabitants no land can lie unused. The holdings must be 
 allotted in such manner that the peasant shall have neither 
 too much nor too little. The imperial domains and other 
 large estates should be let to the peasants for a quit rent in 
 produce. Economy, too, on the part of the peasants is of 
 great importance. The land should be cultivated by oxen 
 rather than by horses. Grain will thus be saved, and the 
 old ox can be consumed for food. Every peasant must 
 possess his own separate property if agriculture is to flourish, 
 for he will labor more willingly when he knows that lie is 
 pursuing his own interest. Court and other compulsory 
 services which are burdensome to the peasant should be 
 abolished. The planting of fruit trees, and the keeping and 
 culture of bees should be encouraged. Finally, Siissmilch 
 advocates the establishment of a college of agriculture to have 
 general oversight of agriculture, propose needed improve- 
 ments, and compel the execution of them. 
 
 Manufactures, if properly conducted, promote marriage, 
 keep money in the country, and increase the state revenue.^ 
 Unless agriculture is fully developed, however, there is 
 danger of attempting toomitny manufactures. Governmental 
 supervision is necessary to preserve the proper balance 
 between the two. 
 
 It is fortunate for the state to have large exportations, as 
 it is then in a position to grow ever richer in men and 
 money. When, therefore, foreign markets have once been 
 established strong efforts should be made to hold them by 
 maintaining the good quality of the exports, and by keeping 
 the prices reasonably low. iVIanufactures, particularly of 
 textiles, should not be unduly encouraged in large cities 
 where the cost of food is higher than in the country. Bounties 
 upon newly established industries, or upon exports, may also 
 be of advantage. 
 
 2. Marriage and Fecundity. — Marriage is the union of a 
 man with one or more women for the purpose of propagating, 
 
 1 Vol. ii, cbap. xvi. 
 
12 The Statistical Work of Sussmilch. 
 
 preserving, and rearing children. Marriage is the best 
 means for populating the earth — best for the parents, for 
 the children, and for the state. It affords husband and wife 
 their best society. They mutually minister to each other's 
 wants, lighten each other's burdens, and sweeten the adversi- 
 ties of life. Through the marriage relation the general 
 welfare is best promoted, the needs of nature are best 
 satisfied, and the offspring are best cared for. Children 
 require longer nursing and care than the young of the lower 
 animals. Mother and child require the protection of the 
 father longer. For these reasons the maixiage relation is the 
 strongest bond of the state. ^ Marriages, too, form the basis 
 of fecundity and the increase of mankind, and they must 
 be sufficiently numerous to bring about an excess of births 
 over deaths. 
 
 V Fecundity may be distinguished as general and special, 
 he general fecundity is the ratio of the annual births to the 
 -^, total population ; the special, marital fecundity is the ratio 
 , of the legitimate births to the marriages.^ 
 ^- — K the natural impulses of man could have free play the 
 proportion of marriages to the total population would always 
 be about the same. Such a state of things exists, however, 
 only in countries or regions comparatively unpopulated. 
 When a country is tolerably well filled with inhabitants 
 cheeks to marriage arise, owing to the wise foresight of men. 
 He who resolves upon marriage assumes at the same time 
 duties which bind him to the maintenance of a family. If 
 the opportunities of providing such maintenance are lacking, 
 his desire to marry is restrained. The more difficult the 
 acquisition of a maintenance the more obstacles are thrown 
 in the way of matrimony, and the fewer the number of 
 marriages contracted. If to these difficulties be added 
 external compulsion, whereby men are restrained from mar- 
 
 1 Vol. i, sect. 63. 
 ' Vol. i, sect. 64. 
 
The Statistical Work of Sussmilch. 13 
 
 riage by laws and force, then the number of persons engaging 
 in matrimony will be still smaller. It is circumstances of 
 this sort that cause different marriage rates in various 
 countries and districts.^ 
 
 From data gathered in 1056 villages of Brandenburg, Siiss- 
 milch found the average ratio of marriages to population to 
 be 1 : 108. This ratio, he adds, will remain about constant 
 so long as the old system of rural economy remains unaltered. 
 He held Brandenburg to be so fully populated that, unless 
 improvements were made in the methods of agriculture, 
 marriages could not be contracted until opportunities were 
 afforded by death.^ The notes of Wargentin for England 
 and Sweden, the accurate observations of Struyck for twenty- 
 two villages in Holland, and the tables of Short for certain 
 English villages, all confirmed the ratio, 1 : 108, found in 
 Brandenburg.^ 
 
 EKamination of the data collected in Halle, Leipzig, Augs- 
 burg, Danzig, Berlin, Amsterdam, Zurich, Paris, Konigsbui-g, 
 and in the districts of Magdeburg, Halberstadt, Minden, 
 Cleves, Pomerania, Brandenburg, and Prussia led Siissmilch 
 to conclude that there had been a decline in the marriage 
 rate since the beginning of the century, 1700, except in 
 Prussia and Pomerania.* 
 
 What, he asks, is the explanation of the decline in the 
 marriage rates of the ruial districts ? Are the same causes 
 at work as in the cities, namely, a constant rise in the price 
 of necessities, and growing extravagance in habits, which 
 render the maintenance of a familj- increasingly difficult? 
 But the peasant raises his own grain and is not extravagant 
 and inclined to luxury like the burger. The reason for the 
 diminishing number of marriages in the country districts 
 must be found in the fact that the villages and market towns 
 are, under present conditions, fully populated. Every village 
 has its definite bounds and its definite number of farms to 
 
 1 Vol. i, sect. 55. ' Vol. i, sect. 56. 3 Vol. i, sect. 57-59. * Vol. i, sect. 72. 
 
14 The Statistical Work of Siissmilch. 
 
 which belong a certain number of day laborers and work- 
 men. If every village has the men and families that it needs 
 there can be no new marriages. The unmarried adult people 
 cannot marry if they wish to do so except as death makes 
 room. In a province fully inhabited under the prevailing 
 economic and industrial conditions only a certain number of 
 new marriages can be annually contracted. Only so long 
 as there is at hand unused fields can men freely follow their 
 natural impulses and marry when inclination moves them.^ 
 
 Siissmilch does not overlook the fact that the conditions of 
 civil, political, and social life set limits to our freedom and 
 act as checks on the natural impulses. Upon the political 
 and social organization largely depends the ease or difficulty 
 of acquiring the means of subsistence for a family. When 
 a young man arrives at the marriageable age the question 
 is raised " Whence shall I secure bread for wife and children ? " 
 If the problem is difficult to solve marriages are postponed 
 and fecundity diminished. France is pointed out as a notable 
 example of a country the political and social organization of 
 which is such that the increase of the population is seriously 
 hindered. The oppression of the Farmers-General and the 
 steady increase in the taxes levied upon agricultui-e act 
 powerfully to restrain the people from marrying and to 
 diminish the marital fecundit}'. If these evil conditions are 
 not remedied the best provinces, one-half the lands of which 
 are already uncultivated, must eventually be depopulated.^ 
 
 Cheap means of subsistence have a great influence on mar- 
 riage. If the price of necessaries rise while wages remain 
 the same many laborers are kept from marriage.^ In cities, 
 so large as not to be able to get food near at hand to support 
 their inhabitants, provisions are likely to be dear. For this 
 and other reasons it is better that cities be numerous and 
 small than few in number and large.* 
 
 Taxes may easily become a serious hindrance to marriage. 
 From the maxim that necessity is the mother of industry and 
 
 1 Vol. i, sect. 72. 2 Vol. i, sect. 76. « Vol. 1, sect. 223. « Vol. i, sect. 224. 
 
The Statistical Work of Siissmilch. 15 
 
 useful inventions has come the opinion held by some that 
 industiT, agriculture, and trade are fostered by keeping taxes 
 high. Beggars are not inventors. If men are to achieve 
 the most of which they are capable they must not be taxed 
 until they lose all hope of bettering their condition in the 
 future.^ 
 
 Luxury, too, is an obstacle to marriage.^ Splendor, wanton- 
 ness, and extravagance begotten by pride and accompanied 
 by immodesty and vanity increase the cost of living and 
 place a serious check on marriage. Luxury gives rise to a 
 large number of servants who necessarily remain unmarried. 
 Besides impoverishing individuals, it weakens the state by 
 encouraging unnecessary importations. The children of 
 parents who indulge in luxury are seldom trained in good 
 counsel and solid thinking. A prince must deal with his 
 subjects somewhat as parents deal with their children, limit- 
 ing and regulating their expenses. Siissmilch even thought 
 it might be useful to divide the people into classes, accord- 
 ing to wealth, dignity, and position. Regulations could then 
 be made by a body of censors respecting the expenditures of 
 each class for dress, food, servants, etc. 
 
 In order that the best results may obtain, the marriage 
 bond should be made durable. Divorces should only be 
 granted for the weightiest reasons.^ If divorces are granted 
 unreservedly, intrigues, jealousies, and crimes, harmful to 
 the morals, and opposed to the increase of population, are 
 likely to be unlimited. The ruler should strive to place 
 marriage on a high plane, and should discourage and restrict 
 in every possible way polygamy, harlotry, and divorce. 
 
 In his zeal to promote the rapid increase of population, 
 Siissmilcb goes so far as to assert that it is the duty of the 
 ruler to see to it that those who are capable of marrj'ing and 
 supporting a family do so. As a punishment for men who 
 
 1 Vol. i, sect. 225. 
 
 2 Vol. i, sect. 229 ; also vol. ii, chap. xvli. 
 s Vol. i, sect. 231. 
 
16 The Statistical Work of Sussmilch. 
 
 obstinately remain bachelors, their property should be con- 
 fiscated and applied to a marriage fund for the assistance of 
 the married poor.i 
 
 It is the duty of a ruler to make all possible provision for 
 the preservation of the lives of his subjects, and also to make 
 his government so attractive as to keep them in his country. 
 Liberty and property, justice, freedom of conscience, and 
 religious tolerance are necessary if the subjects are to be 
 inspired with a desire to remain in their fatherland. 
 
 As the changes in population depend so largely upon the 
 social and political organization of the people it follows that 
 state-craft should pay special attention to these matters and 
 endeavor exactly to determine the proportion of marriages 
 annually contracted to the total population, and seek if by 
 any means the proportion can be raised. The wisest, truest 
 servants of the state are those who seek to make it yearly 
 more populous, to clear away all obstacles to marriage, to 
 grant men freedom, and to make possible the satisfaction, in 
 orderly ways, and particularly through marriage, of the natu- 
 ral impulses implanted in them by the wisdom of the Creator. 
 Every marriage prohibited, every child less brought into the 
 world, weakens the future power of the state. They are 
 bad counsellors who think to enrich princes through the 
 increase of taxes and the enhancement of the prices of the 
 first necessaries of life. By this short-sighted policy the 
 foundation of the wealth of the country is destroyed for a 
 temporary revenue. That prince acts wisely who seeks the 
 enlargement of his income in the reasonably promoted increase 
 of his subjects. If human wisdom and virtue are the main- 
 springs of government, a ruler promotes his own interests, 
 and advances the prosperity of his state, when he acts in 
 accordance with the divine purpose, which aims at the 
 fecundity and increase of mankind.^ 
 
 ' Vol. i, sect. 233. 2 Vol. i, sect. 78. 
 
The Statistical Work of Sussmilch. 17 
 
 Taking into account an entire country, there are about 
 four children to every marriage. Now, so far as the natural 
 powers are concerned, the fecundity might be much greater. 
 The bearing period of women is at least twenty-five years 
 (15 to 40), and allowing for only one child every two years, 
 twelve children per marriage are possible under favorable 
 circumstances. Why is the fecundity so comparatively weak ? 
 Siissmilch distinguishes two classes of causes. First, those 
 which lie outside human control, and secondly, those due to 
 man's wilfulness — irregularities, and dissoluteness.^ 
 
 In the first class of causes are the following : Often one 
 of the wedded persons is naturally infertile. Sickly, frail, 
 consumptive parents reduce the marital fecundity. The 
 premature disruption of the marriage by the death of one 
 party, particularly when the other fails to remarry, as widows 
 generally do. The unnatural marriage of young girls to old 
 men, and of young men to middle aged widows. Such mar- 
 riages are unreasonable, sinful, highly detrimental to the 
 increase of population, and worthy of the severest suppres- 
 sion.^ Siissmilch even goes so far as to recommend a law 
 that would forbid the marriage of young people to those past 
 the reproductive age. Exceptions might be made in certain 
 eases, but a good dowry should be required from the 
 exempted couple to go toward the assistance of two or three 
 poor people who could thus be placed in a position to make 
 good the damage done the §;tate by the unnatural marriage. 
 
 Late marriages also contribute to the diminished marital 
 fecundity. These, however, are largely dependent upon the 
 civil and political organization of society, and are not to be 
 avoided if the country is fully peopled and the opportunities 
 for acquiring a maintenance are all taken. Too early mar- 
 riages are also opposed to a high fecundity. 
 
 In the second class of causes are the following: Debauch- 
 ery among the youths. The fear and anxiety of mothers 
 
 1 Vol. i, sect. 89. ' Vol. i, sects. 90, 91. 
 
18 The Statistical Work of Sussmilch. 
 
 who dread the dangers of childbirth, a dread which might 
 largely disappear if provision were made for a larger num- 
 ber of skilful midwives and doctors. The fear of large' 
 families, and anxiety as to the burden of maintaining them, 
 tempts many men to remain single or, if married, to possess 
 but few children. Finally, the fecundity is diminished by 
 the long nursing of children by the mothers.^ 
 
 Does any one people, country, or planet have a natural 
 advantage above all others in respect to marital fecundity ? 
 In opposition to writers, like Machiavelli and Montesquieu, 
 Siissmilch answers the question in the negative. Human 
 nature he holds to be everywhere the same. Fecundity 
 depends not upon the climate ^er se, nor upon a' particular 
 race or country. Freedom, easy maintenance, and virtue 
 are the three essentials to a high marital fecundity.^ 
 
 It is highly important that statesmen have a knowledge 
 of the ratio of births to marriages. This is a state-barometer, 
 and in it is reflected the true gains and losses in the wealth 
 and power of the state.^ 
 
 Siissmilch was not the discoverer of the fact that, on the 
 average, more boys are born than girls. John Graunt, an 
 Englishman, had observed this phenomenon as early as 1662.* 
 Siissmilch, however, had as a working basis more data than 
 his predecessor. He finds that when large numbers are 
 observed, on the average, 104 or 105 boys are born to every 
 100 girls,^ an excess somewhat smaller than that stated by 
 Graunt. Siissmilch regards this law as fixed by the Creator 
 for the purpose of securing the increase of mankind in the 
 most rational way, namely, through monogamous marriage. 
 The excess of boys over girls at birth is necessary in order 
 that the two sexes may be approximately equal at the 
 marriageable age since, in the early years of life, the death 
 rate for males is higher than for females, largely owing to 
 
 1 Vol. i, sects. 92-96. 4 Graunt, Bills of Mortality, chap. viii. 
 
 2 Vol. i, sect. 98. 5 Vol. ii, sect. 409. 
 » Vol, i, sect. 103. 
 
The Statistical Work of Sussmilch. 19 
 
 the more severe couditions of life to which the former are 
 exposed. 1 
 
 The opinion generally accepted had been that the greater 
 mortality among males was just sufficient to bring about 
 an exact equilibrium of the two sexes at the marriageable 
 age. Siissmilch modifies this view. He concludes that the 
 women are slightl)' in excess at that age.^ For a long time 
 this phenomenon was a riddle to him, but at last he found 
 an explanation of the apparent inconsistency in the fact that 
 more widows than widowers fail to re-marry. It is more 
 difficult for a widow to get a second husband than for a 
 widower to find a second wife. The widows who re-marry 
 are to tlie widowers who re-marry about as four to five.^ The 
 excess of females at the age of maturity is, therefore, service- 
 able as it allows widowers to practice Polygamia successiva 
 and re-marry, whereas they could not or would not marry a 
 widow with several children.* 
 
 Polygamy, or Polygamia simultanea, Siissmilch looks upon 
 as a sin and injustice. Owing to the approximate equality 
 of the two sexes at maturity, the possession of several wives 
 by one man must, if the practice is at all general, deprive 
 some of his feUows of the enjoyment of married life.® If the 
 proportion of the sexes were different, polygamy might come 
 to be the normal marriage relation. If there were twice as 
 many women as men in the world, polygamy would not be 
 a sin ; under such circumstances, the practice of polygamy 
 would even be a duty.^ 
 
 3. Mortality. — In his discussion of deaths, Siissmilch 
 attempts first to determine the average annual number as 
 compared to the total population.''' This ratio of the annual 
 deaths to the total population he calls the standard (^Mass) 
 of mortality. That this standard may be as typical as possi- 
 bly, it is sought in that element of the population least 
 removed from natural conditions; that is, in the healthy, 
 
 1 Vol. ii, sect. 409. ' Vol. ii, sect. 429! » Vol. ii, sect. 434. ' Vol. i, chap, ii 
 
 2 Vol. ii, sect. 423. < Vol. ii, sect. 430. • Vol. ii, sect. 436. 
 
20 The Statistical Work of Siissmilch. 
 
 robust, and industrial rural folk. From data gathered from 
 1056 villages of Brandenburg, for a six-year period (1743- 
 48), Siissmilch finds the average ratio to be one death to 
 every forty-two or forty-three inhabitants, these six years 
 being exceptionally free from epidemics. The average ratio 
 for mixed years (1739-48), including epidemic years, was 
 1 : 38, or 1 : 89. In twenty small cities of Brandenburg the 
 average ratio in 1738 was 1 : 37. In large and populous 
 cities, and in cities where a large amount of money circu- 
 lates the death ratios are considerably higher, ranging on the 
 average from 1 : 24 to 1 : 30. The final outcome of the 
 investigation is that the mortality among the country folk 
 in mixed years is, approximately, 1 : 40 (25 per 1000) ; in 
 small cities, 1 : 32 (31 per 1000) ; in larger cities, like Berlin, 
 1 : 28 (36 per 1000) ; and in the largest cities, like London 
 and Rome, 1 : 24, or 1 : 25 (40 per 1000). In whole prov- 
 inces, urban and rural communities reckoned together, the 
 average ratio of deaths to population is 1 : 35, or 1 : 36 (29 
 per 1000.).! 
 
 From this comparison of deaths and population Siissmilch 
 draws five conclusions.^ First, nature and the powers of 
 nature are everywhere the same, and, therefore, the dissimi- 
 larity in the duration of life, as between different groups of 
 population, is to be attributed to unlikeness of customs and 
 diets., Secondly, localities separated geographically but under 
 approximately similar conditions in other respects are com- 
 parable as regards mortality if the periods of time observed 
 are identical. Thirdly, other circumstances equal, where 
 the number of deaths is relatively large the population may 
 be regarded as relatively large. If the number in one 
 locality is twice that in another, under similar conditions, 
 the population of the former may be considered as twice that 
 of the la^r. Fourthly, the mortality of cities is not com- 
 parable with that of provinces, because the rules of mortality 
 
 51 Vol. i, sect. 35, 2 Vol. 1, sects. 38-42, 
 
The Statistical Work of Sussmilch. 21 
 
 for cities, owing to various reasons, are quite different from 
 those applicable to whole provinces. Lastly, in mortality 
 there is something constant and universal. All ages, sexes, 
 and diseases must be definitely proportioned to each other 
 to bring it about that in a province one person annually dies 
 of every thirty-six. 
 
 The causes assigned by Siissmilch in explanation of the 
 high mortality in cities may be classified as subjective and 
 objective. As compared with the rural population, the morals 
 of the city inhabitants are more corrupt, their manner of life 
 more luxurious, and their cares and passions greater. The 
 higher morality of city children as compared with that of 
 children resident in village and country is largely due to 
 their weaker constitutions, and the negligence of their nurses 
 who seldom are their mothers. Among the objective or 
 external causes is the denser and more impure air of the 
 cities. Contagious diseases spread there more rapidly than 
 in the country, owing to the denser population, and to other 
 conditions favorable to disease. The apparent mortality of 
 cities is also heightened somewhat by the death of many 
 strangers who, as temporary residents, die while inmates of 
 hospitals, orphan asylums, and foundling houses. Wealth, 
 too, is characteristic of cities, but wealth is the mother of 
 poverty and causes many indigent persons.-' Wealth is 
 acquired through commerce and manufactures carried on by 
 individuals who themselves almost never become rich and 
 who are thrown into the deepest misery by famine, a war, or 
 an industrial crisis. The poor are shamefully neglected in 
 the cities. When charitable funds are provided they are 
 quite insufficient to meet the needs of the indigent. The 
 state thus loses many subjects whose value would repay a 
 hundred fold the expense of preserving them. 
 
 Great cities, because of their high mortality, are not an 
 advantage to the human race. Large cities are a real evil, 
 
 1 Vol. i, sect. 50. Der Reichtvm. ist eine Mutter der Armuth, und er macht viele 
 Durftigen. 
 
22 The Statistical Work of Sussmilch. 
 
 and the damage they inflict upon the state is almost, if not 
 quite, equal to that done by the pest. Cities are a necessary 
 evil, which, while not curable, can be mitigated. Rulers 
 should not strive to bring about an excessive growth of 
 population in one or a few cities; they should endeavor to 
 turn the urban migrants into many cities, and thus bring 
 about a more equitable and harmonious distribution of the 
 population. Morals, too, should be more strictly guarded 
 in the cities, for although police regulations can instil no 
 loathing for dissoluteness, nor make the people more virtu- 
 ous, yet they can place obstructions in the broad avenues to 
 vice and thus preserve many lives. ^ 
 
 In deaths by ages there is presented a most beautiful and 
 perfect regularity.^ The proportions existing between deaths 
 at various ages and the total deaths seem to be little influ- 
 enced by differences in the mode of maintenance among 
 different peoples.^ Though the causes of death are so multi- 
 ple and various, yet all unite in the attainment of one 
 firmly fixed purpose. All the different diseases have their 
 definite limits and are under the control of the invisible 
 hand of the Infinite, by virtue of which they must deliver 
 their fixed number to the ordered total of deaths at every 
 age. Fevers are universal diseases, but only so many die of 
 the fever as is necessary to make full the quota of deaths 
 for every age period. Where apparently there is the greatest 
 confusion and irregularity, in reality everything moves 
 harmoniously. All the numbers are proportioned to one 
 another, the proportions are constant, they are approximately 
 the same in all countries, and, what is more remarkable, all 
 these proportions are brought about by a multitude of causes 
 all diverse and in themselves subject to change. 
 
 When single years are compared great divergences are 
 likely to appear in the deaths by ages, but the harmony in 
 the proportions is disclosed when large numbers extending 
 
 1 Vol. i, sect. 52. = Vol. ii, chap. xxii. s vol. ii, sect. 436. 
 
The Statistical Work of Sussmilch. 23 
 
 over a period of several years are observed. The larger the 
 numbers observed the more constant are the proportions. 
 
 A comparison of deaths by ages between such different 
 groups as the nuns and Benedictine monks of Paris, the 
 inhabitants of the Brandenburg vil^ges and of the Swedish 
 provinces showed an astonishing agreement.^ In this respect 
 the statistics of Paris, Breslau, and Brunswick were also 
 strikingly similar.^ 
 
 From a comparison of several large and small cities, Siiss- 
 milch concluded that deaths were more numerous in the large 
 cities in the age groups from twenty to thirty years, and in 
 the small cities for the age groups above fifty years.^ These 
 facts demonstrate that the large cities lose an excessive num- 
 ber of men at the most useful period of their lives. 
 
 On the average, one-half of the people born into the world 
 die before they attain to the age of twenty years. Mortality 
 is high in early childhood, and it is highest during the first 
 week of life. In the second year the vital powers are three 
 or four times as great as in the first year. In the third year 
 only one-half as many die as in the second. The decline in 
 mortality continues until about the fifteenth year, when only 
 two of every 1000 annually die. The mortality increases 
 again about the twentieth year, the period of life when men 
 begin to engage in severe labor, and are inclined to indulge 
 in evil habits. Women, too, at this age are subject to all the 
 dangers attendant on early womanhood.* 
 
 Siissmilch presents a table showing, first, how many die at 
 every age of life, taking as a starting point 1000 births and 
 assuming that 1000 are born and 1000 die annually ; secondly, 
 how many of the original 1000 remain alive at every age 
 period ; thirdly, how many of all ages are living in every age 
 group ; and, fourthly, how many die at every age period as 
 
 ■ Vol. ii, sects. 440, 441. " Vol. ii, sect. 448. 
 ' Vol. ii, sect. 442. * Vol. ii, sect. 467. 
 
24 The Statistical Work of Sussmilch. 
 
 compared with the living.^ Recognizing that this table does 
 not represent the true state of afPairs, Siissmilch yet thinks 
 that it shows certain facts fairly well ; as, for example, the 
 probability of life, and the number of persons living within 
 certain age limits. It furnishes also a basis for a rough 
 estimate of the number of married persons and the number 
 of children per marriage. He estimates that nine marriages, 
 the parties to which are aged from 20 to 40, produce annu- 
 ally two children, or one such marriage gives one child every 
 four and one-half years.^ 
 
 From the data at his command, Siissmilch concludes that 
 the duration of life is longer for females than for males; 
 and that the power of females to sustain life is apparently 
 greater at almost all ages of life than that of males. Struyck^ 
 and Kersseboom* had demonstrated this to be true for 
 Holland. 
 
 The discussion of deaths by diseases is unsatisfactory and 
 for good reasons.® The data relating to the subject were 
 very limited in amount, and the nomenclature of diseases, at 
 the present imperfect and lacking in uniformity, was then 
 quite_ undeveloped. Siissmilch himself was fully aware of 
 the difficulties in the way of a satisfactory treatment of the 
 subject, and his conclusions are given as tentative. The 
 true order or system of deaths by diseases can, he says, only 
 be represented after careful observations of diseases and the 
 collection of statistics for entire provinces and for a long 
 period of years.^ He thinks, however, the conclusion war- 
 ranted that each disease has, as it were, its fixed quota for 
 the grave. 
 
 From tables for London, certain small cities of England, 
 Danzig, and Berlin, Siissmilch considers spring to be the 
 most dangerous season of the year, and May the month of 
 largest mortality. Summer and autumn are the most health- 
 
 1 Vol. ii, sect. 461. s Vol. ii, sect. 477. = Vol. li, chap. xxiv. 
 
 2 Vol. il, sect. 466. * Vol. ii, sect. 478. « Vol. ii, sect. 518. 
 
The Statistical Worh of Siissmilch. 25 
 
 ful seasons. He is satisfied with the mere statement of fact, 
 and leaves the causes of these phenomena to the doctors.^ 
 
 The foregoing is a brief review of Siissmilch's most import- 
 ant ideas on the subject of population. In addition there 
 are a few points touched upon which, perhaps, deserve 
 notice. One chapter is given to a discussion of life annuities 
 and tontines.^ This chapter is scarcely more than a summary 
 of the results obtained by D^parcieux in a work published 
 in 1746. 
 
 Siissmilch performed an important service in bringing 
 together information of much value from the view point of 
 life insurance. While his data were entirely inadequate for 
 the construction of a completely scientific life table, they 
 seem to have had a practical application for a number of 
 years, especially in Germany. In the second volume of the 
 third edition (1765) of Die Gottliche Ordnung was presented 
 a table showing the probability of living at every age for 
 the kingdom at large (Prussia). " This table," says Walford, 
 " was generally used in Germany during the last century 
 (18th)." From this table was calculated the values of 
 single and joint-life annuities for the Institution of Widows 
 in the Duchy of Oldenberg, also for another institution of 
 the same kind in Hamburg. "This," says Walford "was the 
 first German mortality table, deduced from German data, 
 and used in Germany."^ 
 
 Dr. Price was acquainted with Die Gottliche Ordnung, and 
 in the second edition of his Reversionary Payments (1772) 
 included a table "which I have formed from a register in 
 Siissmilch's works of the ages at which the inhabitants of 
 a country parish in Brandenburg died." There was also 
 included a table showing the probability of life at Berlin 
 formed from data contained in Die Gottliche Ordnung^ In 
 the sixth edition of his Reversionary Payments, Dr. Price 
 
 1 Vol. ii, sects. 529-535. ^ Walford, Insurance Cyclopedia^ vol. v, p. 312. 
 
 3 Vol. ii, chap, xxiii. * Ibid,, p. 313. 
 
26 The Statistical Work of SUssmilch. 
 
 refers to "the ingenious Siissmilch," i and adds, "that the 
 tables in Siissmilch's book were made the basis of all the 
 computations in Germany of the values of payments depen- 
 dent on lives." ^ 
 
 Siissmilch's methods of calculating life probabilities were 
 faulty, but with all the faults, his data, for lack of better, 
 served a useful purpose in the early history of life insurance.^ 
 
 Another chapter in Die Gottliche Ordnung is given to the 
 discussion of the question. Is the Christian religion detri- 
 mental to the increase of population?* Montesquieu, in his 
 Persian Letters, had contended that the population of Europe 
 had decreased since Caesar's time, and that the decrease had 
 been chiefly due to the spread of Christianity and Mahomet- 
 anism, religions less favorable to the increase of population 
 than those which they replaced.^ Siissmilch found it an 
 easy task to expose the fallacies in Montesquieu's argument 
 and to establish a strong case in support of Christianity as 
 a religion more favorable to the increase of mankind than 
 the religious systems which the Romans had in antiquity. 
 
 Still another chapter is devoted to a consideration of the 
 question whether small or large states are to be preferred 
 from the point of view of population. Siissmilch concludes 
 that the size of the state is of much less importance than the 
 industrial, economic, and social condition of its people. 
 
 III. Siissmilch's Place in Statistical Literature. 
 
 The discovery of the fact that vital phenomena conform 
 to laws when large numbers are considered is to be attributed 
 to an English writer of the seventeenth century, John Graunt, 
 whose book entitled Observations on the Bills of Mortality 
 appeared in 1662. A comparison and criticism of the baptis- 
 mal and death registers for the city of London for the years 
 
 1 Reversionary Payments, 6th ed., vol. ii, p. 69. ■• Vol. ii, chap, xvili. 
 
 2 JUd., p. 450. See also vol. 1, pp. 133-136. i Persian Letters, Nob. 108-110. 
 " Cf. Weatergaard, Thiorie der Statistih, p. 264. 
 
The Statistical Worh of Sussmilch. 27 
 
 1629-61 led Graunt to conclude that the two sexes are 
 nearly equal in numbers ; that fourteen boys are born to 
 every thirteen girls ; that the ratio of births to deaths is 
 quite uniform ; and that population can be estimated if the 
 number of deaths is accurately known. 
 
 Graunt was followed by Petty, who, in his chief work of 
 1676 on Political Arithmetick, endeavors to present a picture 
 of the population and industries of Great Britain, Holland, 
 Zealand, and France. 
 
 Among other English writers on population of about this 
 period were Gregory King, who, in 1696, calculated the 
 population of England from the hearth tax, levied in 1690 
 on 1,319,215 houses ; and Edmund Halle, who, in 1693, made 
 a report on the average expectation of life for each age, the 
 basis of the calculations being tables drawn from the records 
 of births and funerals in the city of Breslau. 
 
 Siissmilch was led to investigate the subject of population 
 through a curiosity aroused by the remarkable conclusions 
 reached by his English predecessors. Die GottUche Ordnung 
 is the result of an attempt to make a more detailed and 
 elaborate analysis of population than the Englishmen had 
 done. 
 
 Siissmilch lays relatively more emphasis upon the regu- 
 larities which prevail in vital phenomena than had the pre- 
 vious writers. His main purpose is to determine the ca'^al 
 relations and conformities to law in the phenomena of 
 births, marriages, and deaths when population masses are 
 observed. His chief interest centers in the Ordnung, which 
 is observable in the changes to which the human race are 
 subject. By Ordnung he means the uniformity which pre- 
 vails in the co-existence and sequence of vital phenomena. 
 Ordnung with Siissmilch is used to express the same thing 
 that is now commonly designated by the German words 
 Gesetze and Gesetzmassigheit?- 
 
 ' Siissmilch at times used the word Oesetze interchangeably with Ordnung. See Die 
 Qottliche Ordnwng, vol. i, p. 51. 
 
28 The Statistical Work of Siissmilch. 
 
 In the emphasis placed upon the Ordnung which exists 
 in the movements of population, and in the merely incidental 
 importance which he attaches to statistical data as descrip- 
 tive of the condition of a state or states, Siissmilch is widely 
 separated from the school of statisticians best represented, 
 perhaps, by Achenwall, whose chief work was first published 
 in 1749.^ The Achenwall conception of statistics makes the 
 ( analysis of population important mainly because a knowledge 
 V of the number and condition of the population furnishes a 
 valuable clue to the power and general welfare of the state. 
 In this sense statistics is a description of the state for 
 '" administrative and political purposes. Siissmilch deals only 
 with statistics of population, but in the field thus limited he 
 attempts to make as minute an analysis as the data at his 
 command will permit. The data are gathered from every 
 available source, and they are arranged, not primarily with 
 a view to obtain a knowledge of the condition of any country 
 V__ or countries, but for the purpose of solving questions relating 
 to the causal interdependence of certain events in human life. 
 The second edition of Die Gottliche Ordnung may be 
 regarded as bringing to a successful close the first period in 
 the history of population statistics.^ The Belgian, Quetelet 
 (1796-1874), vs^as the next prominent writer to work along 
 the lines laid down by the Englishmen of the seventeenth 
 century; by Struyck and Kersseboom in Holland in the 
 middle of the eighteenth century; and by Siissmilch, in 
 Prussia.^ The main purpose with both Siissmilch and Quete- 
 let is to investigate the conformities to law in social life. 
 
 1 Abriss der neusten Staatswissenschaft der Heutigen vomehmsten europaischen Jieicke 
 und Eepubliken, 
 
 2 Knapp, Thiorie des Bevolkenings-Wechsels, p. 55. 
 
 3 Curiously enough Quetelet seems not to have been acquainted with Silssmilch's work. 
 Quetelet in his writings refers but once to Sussmilch (Social Phytics (1835), vol. i, p. 198), 
 and that reference waa evidently taken from Sadler's Law of Population, vol. i, pp. 197- 
 201. In the beginning (p. 91) of his book, Physique Sociale, Quetelet says : " L' homme 
 nait se developpe et meurt d'aprSs certaines lois qui n' ont jamais Me Studides dans leur 
 ensemble ni dans le mode de leur ri»otions mutuelles." From this sentence Wagner 
 thinks that Quetelet had no knowledge of Silssmilch's Die Osttliohe Ordnung. (Wagner 
 Siatistik in Bluntschli's Deutsche Staats- Wiirterbuch, vol. x, p. 429.) ' 
 
The Statistical Work of Sussmilch. 29 
 
 They differ radically in the explanation assigned for the 
 appearance of these regularities in phenomena so complex. 
 Sussmilch thinks the explanation is to be found in a divinjy ; 
 Quetelet reduces the laws to mathematical formulas. The 
 advance from Sussmilch to Quetelet is the advance from a 
 theological, teleogical to a mathematical, phj'sical conception 
 of the conformities to law in social life. Quetelet dem- 
 onstrates with even more thoroughness than Siissmilch that 
 large numbers are essential in any determination of the regu- 
 larities in vital and social phenomena. Quetelet's Budget,^ 
 however, recalls Svissmilch's " Zins zur Sterblichkeit." 
 
 A serious obstacle to careful investigation vi^hich all writers 
 on population of the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries 
 encountered was the lack of accurate enumerations of popu- 
 lation. Throughout the seventeenth century, when enumera- 
 tions were taken at air"the large countries, they were 
 generally limited to a single district, or to certain cities. If 
 the population of the whole country was required it was 
 estimated, various methods being employed. In the eigh- 
 teenth century some advance was made, particularly in France 
 and Prussia. Under Frederick the Great, beginning in 1748, 
 enumerations of population were quite regularly made in 
 Prussia. 
 
 In his calculation of typical averages, Siissmilch relies 
 almost entirely upon the number of the living inhabitants 
 enumerated in Berlin for the years 1747-1755,^ and in Bran- 
 denburg for the year 1748.^ These seem t^o ha.vj^een the only 
 actual enumerations upon which he based his calculations. 
 
 The main sources from which were derived the data con- 
 tained in Die Gottliche Ordnung were the church registers 
 
 1 " II est un bndget qu' on paye avec une r^gularit^ effrayante c' eet celui dea prisons, 
 des bagnes et des ^chafauds ; c'est celai-li surtoat qu' il faudrait s'attacher A r6quire." 
 Physique Socials, vol. i, p. 96. 
 
 ^Bie Gditliche Ordnung, vol. 1, p. 263, and appx. p. 21. Bielefeld criticised the accuracy 
 of the Berlin enumeration of 1747, but Siissmilch (vol. i, pp. 262-264) gives a very good 
 answer to the criticism , maintaining that the count was taken with all reasonable accuracy. 
 
 3 ZHe GsUliche Ordnung, vol. i, appx. pp. 2-8. 
 
30 The Statistical Work of Silssmilch. 
 
 of various cities, villages, or rural districts in Prussia, Eng- 
 land, Holland, Sweden, France, and Italy. The English lists 
 were fairly good from the close of the sixteenth century ; 
 the French lists from the middle of tha seventeenth century ; 
 and the Prussian lists from the close of the seventeenth 
 century. All these early lists were generally kept by the 
 church, though often with the sanction and authority of the 
 state. They were, therefore, records of baptisms, marriag6 
 ceremonies, and burials. Such lists are not as satisfactory 
 as the data obtained by civil registration, where the purpose 
 is to record the fact quite regardless of any ceremony which 
 may or may not be connected with it. 
 
 When we consider how comparatively meagre were the 
 data at Siissmilch's command, and how unscientific were the 
 methods then emplo} ed to collect and compile statistics of 
 population, it is really remarkable how many results he was 
 able to obtain by skillful combination and keen analysis of 
 his materials. 
 
 The principal statistical propositions advanced by Siiss- 
 milch must be regarded as fundamental for population 
 statistics even in our day.^ While his conclusions are gen- 
 erally to be accepted as true, he at times shows a tendency 
 to interpret his data in too broad terms. He occasionally 
 generalizes when the data upon which his argument . rests 
 are insufficient to warrant generalization. A striking example 
 of this tendency is his assertion that, given the number of 
 deaths, the population can be obtained by making use of 
 certain multipliers which are assumed to represent the num- 
 ber of inhabitants to every death. From a calculation of 
 the death ratios of Brandenburg, where the population was 
 known from the enumeration of 1748, Siissmilch found that 
 the population bore certain relations to the number of deaths, 
 the ratios varying somewhat according as the population was 
 for large cities, small Cities, or rural districts. Having found 
 
 1 Wappaus, Studium in Staiistik, vol. i, p. 6. 
 
The Statistical Work of Sussmilch. 31 
 
 these proportions, he hastily assumes that, approximately, 
 the same proportions hold true everywhere, and that it is 
 only necessary to know the number of deaths annually occur- 
 ring in a given locality to calculate the number of its inhab- 
 itants. It is obvious to anyone at all familiar with statistics 
 that the number of deaths taken by itself would seldom prove 
 a trustworthy index of the population of a country. 
 
 In his treatment of the statistics of marriages and births, 
 and in his discussion of marital fecunditj', Siissmiloh relies 
 least upon his predecessors. In the discussion of these sub- 
 jects considerable allowance is made for the influence exerted 
 by customs and economic conditions on the number of mar- 
 riages and births, and on the average number of births per 
 marriage. 1 The discussion of deaths and diseases, from this 
 point of view, is much less satisfactory.^ 
 
 Regarding Die Gottllche Ordnung, as a whole, its greatest 
 fault, from a scientific standpoint, is its theological setting.^ 
 Even this fault may be largely excused, however, when we 
 reflect that Siissmilch was a preacher. It is quite probable 
 that if he had not felt that, as a preacher, he was bound to 
 furnish some plausible excuse for meddling virith economic 
 and political questions, much less space would have been 
 given to theological considerations. 
 
 Siissmilch's theory of population was undoubtedly largely 
 influenced by the special circumstances of his own time and 
 country. Prussia, in the eighteenth century, was rapidly 
 extending her territory and developing her industries, and 
 this expansion was particularly ra^jid during the reign of 
 Frederick the Great (1740-86). As a youthful militant 
 state, Prussia needed a larger population. Frederick's policy 
 
 1 Die Gdttliche Ordnung, vol i, sect. 99. 
 
 ' Ibid., vol. ii, sects. 441, 617. 
 
 3 Siissmilch fell into the error that is noticeably incident to physical speculation gen- 
 erally in its pre-scientific stages. As a careful writer has well said, " it is observable how 
 prompt is the conception that an apparent uniformity in the co-existences and sequences 
 of phenomena constitutes an objective expression of a Divine Idea." T. E. Young, On 
 CentenaricmSf p. 30. ^ 
 
 \ 
 
 J 
 
32 The Statistical Work of Sussmilch. 
 
 recognized this necessity. He held out every inducement 
 to attract foreigners to his country. It is estimated that 
 during the period from 1740 to 1756 over 100,000 colonists 
 were introduced into the several provinces. Special incen- 
 tives were offered to attract skilled artisans, and to persuade 
 immigrants to settle upon Prussian lands. The system of 
 colonization pursued by Frederick " had mainly in view the 
 recovery of lands on which nature had not smiled ; which 
 the elements had laid waste ; or which bad husbandry had 
 left in neglect." 1 
 
 Frederick's ideas respecting population, and the economic 
 means best adapted to secure the greatest prosperity of the 
 state, coincide with those advanced by Siissmilch. Encourage- 
 ment of immigration, and a rigorous protective policy were 
 parts of a scheme which sought to increase the fighting 
 strength and tax-paying power of the state ; to enlarge the 
 annual production of grain, and thus lessen the dependence 
 of Prussia on her neighbors ; and to encourage manufactures 
 with the object of securing a favorable balance of trade. 
 
 Prussia needed a large revenue. Frederick's policy was 
 to secure an increase in the state revenues, not by levying 
 new taxes, or by raising those already imposed, but by 
 increasing the amount of taxable property and the number 
 of tax-paying subjects. 
 
 Siissmilch, with an eye to the conditions prevailing in 
 Prussia, naturally enough, gave an exaggerated importance 
 to all measures wich might artificially stimulate the increase 
 of population. In this connection it may be noted that 
 Malthus, too, committed the same error, though his conclu- 
 sions were quite the opposite of those reached by Siissmilch. 
 Malthus, impressed with the conditions prevalent in the 
 England of his day, formulated the principles of population 
 in terms which exaggerated the strength of the tendency for 
 a redundant population to arise. The situation in England 
 
 1 Tuttle, History of Prussia, vol. iii, p. 95. 
 
The Statistical Work of Siissmilch. 33 
 
 at the time Malthus wrote was peculiar. It was an age of 
 transition from the system of small industries to the modern 
 system of large industries. Additions to the food supply 
 were procured with great difficulty, while population was 
 increasing rapidly under the stimulus of the newly-expand- 
 ing industries, supplemented by the unwholesome encourage- 
 ments of a vicious system of poor relief. " On every hand 
 it was obvious that population was increasing ; and that the 
 numbers which were added were brought into the world 
 without any real attempt to provide, by additional effort, for 
 their subsistence."^ 
 
 It is interesting to contrast the standpoints from which 
 Siissmilch and Malthus regarded population, both being 
 influenced by the special environments in which they found 
 themselves. Siissmilch was thoroughly convinced that no 
 danger could arise from an increase of population. In his 
 view danger rather lurked in the unconcern of rulers to 
 the proper encouragement of the increase of their subjects. 
 Siissmilch held that population was nowhere too large 
 but everywhere too small. He continually emphasizes the 
 advantages which accrue to those countries which encourage 
 the increase of their inhabitants. While he recognizes that 
 the means of subsistence set an ultimate limit to population, 
 and that checks to population often occur, owing to inferior 
 methods of agriculture, long before the ultimate limit is 
 reached, yet he always insists, not that the increase of popu- 
 lation in such instances should be discouraged, but that every 
 possible effort should be made to improve the methods of 
 agriculture, and thus provide for a further growth of 
 population. 
 
 Malthus, like Siissmilch, favored large populations, but he 
 saw no necessity for encouraging the increase of population 
 under any circumstances. In his view the tendency of popu- 
 
 1 Cunningham, Orawth of English Industry and Commerce in Modem Times, pp. 662- 
 564. 
 
34 The Statistical Work of Sussmilch. 
 
 lation to increase is so strong that it requires to be curbed 
 rather than stimulated. Unless the conditions are special, 
 as in a period just subsequent to war, or in a new country, 
 population is always sure to be as large as is desirable under 
 the circumstances of time and place. 
 
 To put the contrast between the standpoints of Siissmilch 
 and Malthus in a word, Siissmilch favored removing all 
 checks to the increase of population, and making every possi- 
 ble provision for its promotion, while Malthus was thoroughly 
 convinced that checks to population are necessary and always 
 in operation, and that the question is not how to remove them, 
 but how to make such a selection of them as will result in 
 the production of the least misery and vice. 
 
 Siissmilch, as we have seen, emphatically denies that wars, 
 plagues, or famines are necessary to maintain an equilibrium 
 between population and means of subsistence. While it can- 
 not be said that Malthus favors wars, plagues, or famines, he 
 does seem to look upon them as necessary checks to popula- 
 tion in certain stages of civilization. As society advances 
 ravaging epidemics become less frequent, other milder checks 
 being powerful enough to prevent a redundant population. 
 With the further progress of civilization war, too, abates. 
 As these positive checks gradually cease to operate, the pre- 
 ventive checks, generally involving less misery, act more 
 powerfully. The conclusion is that the preventive check 
 which involves restraint from marriage, unaccompanied by 
 irregular gratifications, is the one best adapted to regulate 
 population with the minimum of vice and misery.^ 
 
 One other illustration may serve to make clear the dis- 
 tinction between the views of Siissmilch and Malthus. Siiss- 
 milch favored the encouragement of matrimony, and con- 
 sidered it one of the principal duties of government to 
 increase the number of marriages. He thinks that a states- 
 man would be deserving of a high reward if he could increase 
 
 > MaltliuB, The Principle of Population, 7th ed., p. 262. 
 
The Statistical Work of Silssmilch. 35 
 
 the number of naairiages from the proportion of 1 to 120 
 or 125, to the proportion of 1 to 80, or 1 to 90.i Malthus 
 emphatically denies the utility of applying any stimulus with 
 a view to pron:ote marriage. " The natural tendency to 
 marriage is in every country so great that, without any 
 encouragements whatever, a proper place for a marriage will 
 always be filled up. Such encouragements, therefore, must 
 either be perfectly futile, or produce a marriage where there 
 is not a proper jjlace for one ; and the consequence must 
 necessarily be increased poverty and mortality."^ 
 
 This is simply one example illustrating the ilrm stand 
 taken by Malthus against the application of any artificial 
 stimulus with a view to increasing population. 
 
 Malthus was acquainted with Die Gottliche Ordnung, but 
 there is no evidence that his views were influenced by it. 
 When he wrote his original essay in 1798 he evidently had 
 not seen Siissmilch's book, for extracts from a table by 
 Siissmilch were obtained second-hand from one of Dr. Price's 
 notes.^ In the later editions of his work Malthus frequently 
 refers to Siissmilch's book, upon which he largely drew for 
 statistical data respecting the condition of the populations of 
 middle Europe. 
 
 Siissmilch and Malthus maybe said to represent the poles 
 between which opinion respecting the increase of population 
 has fluctuated. Opponents of Malthus point to France as a 
 striking example of the results of Alalthusianism. In that 
 country the natural growth of population has been for some 
 years practically nil. While the supporters of Malthusianism 
 hold that this condition of affairs is representative of a high 
 state of civilization, accompanied by large and generally 
 diffused prosperity, there are not a few Frenchmen who look 
 upon the abnormally low birth rate in France as an evil 
 which ought to be remedied, if necessary by state action. 
 
 1 Die Gottliche Ordnung, vol. i, p. 152. 
 
 2 The Principle of Population, 7th ed., p. 159. 
 
 3 MalttinB, Essay on the Principle of Population, Ist ed., p. 114. 
 
36 The Statistical Work of Sussmilch. 
 
 A high birth rate is considered by this class of thinkers 
 essential as a measure for national defence. It is the Siiss- 
 milchian idea as opposed to the Malthiisian doctrine. 
 
 In conclusion it may be said that Die Oottliche Ordnung 
 must be regarded as an important contribution to the litera- 
 ture of population statistics. It is important not so much 
 because of originality, though considerable originality is dis- 
 played, particularly in the treatment of marriages and births, 
 but rather because it is the first complete study of popula- 
 tion for its own sake. It stands as the first systematic 
 compend of facts bearing upon the many complex questions 
 connected with the static condition and dynamic changes of 
 population. 
 
 IV. Bibliography of the Writings of Johann Peter Sussmilch. 
 
 A list of the writings of Siissmilch may properly be considered an 
 essential supplement to the preceding sketch of his life."^ They indi- 
 cate the intellectual achievements of the man from 1732, the date of 
 the publication of his thesis, to 1765, when, two years before his 
 death, he published his second and last revision of the work to which 
 he had devoted a large part of his life. 
 
 A CHBOSOLOaiCAL LIST OF THE PRINTED WORKS AND MASCTSCEIPT WKITIUGS OF 
 
 Johann Petek Sussmilch. 
 
 Dissertatio de cohaesione et attractione corporum. Jenae, 1732. Lit. 
 
 Eitteriauis. 4to. 39 pp. 
 Die gottliche Ordnung in den Veranderungen des menschlichen Ge- 
 
 schlechts, aus der Geburt, Tod, und Fortpflanzung desselben erwie- 
 
 sen. Berlin, 1741. J. C. Spener. 12mo. (First edition edited by 
 
 Sussmilch himself.) 
 Die gottliche Ordnung in denen Veranderungen des menschlichen Ge- 
 
 schlechts, das ist, grlindllcher Beweiss der gottlichen Vorsehuug 
 
 und Vorsorge fur das menschliche Geschlecht, etc. Berlin, 1742. 
 
 D. A. Gohls. 12mo. 
 
 Das Frolocken der Brandenburglschen Lande tiber dem glticklich ge- 
 endigten Kriege. In einer Predigt. Berlin, 1742. 4to. 
 
 > See chap. i. 
 
The Statistical Work of SUssmilch. 37 
 
 Die Wichtigkeit einer guten Erziehung, in einer Predigt am ersten 
 Sonntag nach Epiph., 1743, in hiessiger St. Petri Kirche vorgestellet. 
 Berlin, 1743. Christian S. Bergemann. 4to. 8 pp. 
 
 Reflexions sur la convenance de la langue celtique et en particuliere de la 
 teutonique avec celles de I'orient. Berlin, 1745. Ak. d. Wiss. 
 
 Anweisung zum frolichen und Gottgefailigen Lob-Gesang iiber dem am 
 4ten Junius, 1745, bey Strigau erhaltenen herrlichen Siege in einer 
 Danck-Predigt am letzten Tage des Pflngst-Festes in der Gemeine zu 
 St. Petri in Colin vergestellet. Berlin, 1745. 4to. 24 pp. (Printed 
 with the Henning manuscripts.) 
 
 Das unvergessliche Denkmahl der Wunder, so Gott durch die bisherigen 
 siegreichen Unternehmungen Sr. Konigl. MajestSt von Preussen 
 gestiftet, in der am 4ten Sountage des Advends 17^5 verordneten 
 Dankpredigt der Gemeine zu St. Petri in Colin iiber Psalm 3, v. 4 er- 
 klaret. Berlin, 1745. 4to. is pp. 
 
 Die Unvernunft und Bosheit des beriichtigten Edelmann's durch seine 
 schandliche Vorstellung des obrigkeitlichen Amtes, aus seinem 
 "Moses mit verdecktem Angesichte" dargethan, und zu aller Men- 
 schen Warnung vor Augen gelegt. Berlin, 1747. 8vo. 
 
 Der Brandenbarger Patriot oder unparteiische Beurtheilung der erricht- 
 eten and von Sr. Konigl. MajestSt in Preussen octioyrten Handlungs- 
 gesellschaft. 1751. 
 
 Der Konigl. Residentz Berlin Schneller Wachsthum und Erbauang. In 
 zweien Abhandlungen erwiesen. Berlin, 1752. Haude und Spener. 
 4to. 80 pp. 1. Abhandlung von dem schnellen Wachsthum Der 
 Konigl. Residentz Berlin vorgel. in dem Versammlung der Konigl. 
 Ak. d. Wiss., Feb. 6, 1749. 2. Aljhandlung von dem Alter und der 
 Erbauung der Stadte, Berlin umi Colin, worinn hochstwahrscheinlich 
 dargethan v?ird, dass der Marggraf Adelbert, der BSr, als der 
 Eroberer und Bezwinger der Mittel-Marck Brandenburg, auch der 
 Erbauer dieser Stadt sei. In der Versammlung d. kgl. Ak. d. Wiss., 
 im October, 1750, abgelesen. 
 
 Die gewisse Hoflfnung einer seligen Unsterblichkeit als der Grund des 
 getrosten Muthes der Gerechten im Tode. . . Lelchen-Predigt der 
 Herr Christian Campen, Kgl. Preuss. Inspectoris. Berlin, 1752. 
 
 " Verzeichniss Teutscher Worter in der AltbritischeUj Sprache" in the 
 " Dictionnaire de la Langue Bretonne," by Louis Le Pelletier. Paris, 
 1752. 
 
 Bekehrung des Rabbi Jachiels. Berlin, 1754. Bienstiel. 
 
 Bekehrung des Rabbi Jachiels. Berlin, 1758. Lange. 8vo. 
 
 Gottgefailige Gliickwlinsche bey dem Eintritt in das 1755. Jahr Predigt. 
 Berlin, 1765. 4to. 16 pp. 
 
38 The Statistical Work of Siissmilch. 
 
 Die gottliche Ordnung in den VerSnderungen des menschlichen Ge- 
 sclilechts, besonders, im Tode, clurcli einige neue Beweissthfimer 
 bestatiget, und gegen des Konigl. Gross Brittannischen Berg-Ratlis 
 Herrn von Justi Errinerungen und Mutlimaassungen in zweien Send- 
 Schreiben an selbigengerettet. Berlin, 175(1. Haude and Spener. 4to. 
 
 Dank-Predigt wegen der am 1 Oct., 1756, von des Konigs von Preuseen 
 Maj. fiber die Oesterreichische Kriegesmacht erfochtenen herrlichen 
 Sieges. . . . Berlin, 1756. 4to. 16 pp. 
 
 Die abermalige AuiBforderung zur Verehrung des Herrn durch den Sieg 
 bei Leutheu in der Dank-Predigt erkiart. Berlin, 1757. 4to. 12 pp. 
 
 Heilsame Wirkungeu des Tages des Schreckens durcb den feindlichen 
 Ueberfall der Stadt Berlin. Berlin, 1757. 
 
 Der grosste und herrlichste unter alien bisherigen Siegen, welchen das 
 Kgl. Preussiche Heer am 6ten May, 1757, bey der Bohmischen Haupt- 
 stadt Prag unter gottlichem Beystande erfoohten. Dank-Predigt. 
 Berlin, 1757. 4to. 16 pp. 
 
 Die Freude fiber die Giite und Hiilfe Gottes an dem Dank- und Siegesfeste 
 wegen des am 5ten Nov., 1757, bei Freyburg . verlichenen hochst- 
 wlchtigen Sieges In einer Predigt . . vorgestellet. . . Berlin, 
 
 1757. 4to. 16 pp. Reprinted at Schwabach, 1758. 4to. 12 pp. 
 Gedancken von den Epidemischen Krankheiten und dem grossern Sterben 
 
 / des 1757ten Jahres. Berlin, 1758. 4to. Haude and Spener. 
 Der grosse Sieg bey Zorndorf . . als eine Ursache der dankvoUsten 
 Freude am 15ten Sonntag nacb Trinitatis . . erkiaret. Berlin, 
 
 1758. 4to. 22 pp. 
 
 Essai sur le Nombre des Habitans de Londres et de Paris. 1759. (Trans- 
 lation.) 
 
 Die gottliche Ermuuterung zum Gebet um Friede . Neujahrs-Predigt. 
 Berlin, 1760. 4to. 16 pp. 
 
 Jesus als das beste und nachahmungs vpfirdigste Muster unserer Kindheit 
 und Jugend. A sermon delivered at Colin the first Sunday after 
 Epiphany, 1701. 8vo. 16 pp. 
 
 Betrachtung einiger Bewegungsgrfinde zur Barmherzigkeit und thatigen 
 Mitleiden mit seinem Nachsten. . . Berlin, 1761. 4to. 
 
 Die gottliche Ordnung. Berlin, 1761-62. Im Verlag der Buchhandlung 
 der Realschule. 2 vols. 8vo. (Second edition edited by Siissmilch 
 himself.) 
 
 Der Bund des Friedens und der Freundschaf t mit Russland, als ein herr- 
 
 liches Gnadengeschenk Gottes. Berlin, 1762. 
 Catalogue librorum coUegit, Dr. J. P. Siissmilch, notasque litteraris 
 
 criticas nonnullis libris addidit Dr. J. C. Konig. Berlin, 1768. 6. L. 
 
 Winter. 
 
The Statistical Work of iSiissmilch. 39 
 
 Die gottliche Orduung. Berlin, 1765. G. L. Winter. 2 vols. 8vo. 
 
 (Third and last edition edited by Siissmilch.) 
 Vorrede zu Krauss' richtiger Chronologie der Bticher der Konige. Jan. 
 
 10, 170.-1. 
 
 Vorrede zu Samuel Buchholtz's Versuch einer Geschichte der Churmarck 
 
 Brandenburg. Berlin, 1765-76. 4to. 
 Versuch eines Beweisses, das die er.ste Sprache ihren Ursprung nicht von 
 
 Menscheu, sondern allein vom Schopfer erhalten habe. Berlin, 1766. 
 
 8vo. 
 
 Posthumous Publications. 
 
 Specimen etymologici Latini, seu glossarii harmonlci Latino-Phoenlcli. 
 
 Bibliotheca Hagana. 1768. 8vo. 
 Centinuatio Speciminis Etymologici. Bibli. Hagana. 1768. 8vo. 
 De goddelyke orde, herrschende in de veranderungen van het menschelyk 
 
 geschlacht, etc. Amsterdam, 1770-72. P. Meijer. 4 vols. 8vo. 
 Die gottliche Ordnung. Edited by Ch. J. Baumaun. Berlin, 1775-76. 
 
 3 vols. 8yo. Im Verlag der Buchhandlung der Realschule. (Fourth 
 
 edition. Revision by Siissmilch's son-in-law.) 
 Die gottliche Ordnung. Berlin, Halle (printed) 1787-88. (?) 
 Die gottliche Ordnung. Berlin, Halle (printed) 1798. 8vo. 
 
 Manuscript Writings {of which some may have been printed), 
 
 Otium Pyrmontanum h. e. dissertatio de origine lapidum, etc. 1745. 
 Memoire sur I'origine et I'age de la Ville de Berlin lu a I'Academie Oct. 20, 
 
 1750. 
 
 Observationes in linguae britannicae . . . naturam. April 26, 1752. 
 
 Anmerknngen zu des Herrn Brownriggs (Bevolkerungs) Kechnung von 
 Bristol. In der Ak. d. Wiss. gelesen am 28ten Nov., 1754. 
 
 Dissertatio, dass die Menscheu uach einer gewissen Kegel sterben. In 
 der Ak. d. Wiss. gelesen am 28ten Nov., 1765. 
 
 Dissertatio academica quaconvenientiacaracterum numericorum, litterar- 
 um, initialium . . . ostenditur. April 29, 1757. 
 
 Dissertatio de Herulis. Oct. 27, 1757. 
 
 Five letters written to J. D. Michaelas, dated Berlin, 1758-66, with a sta- 
 tistical abstract "General Liste aller Gestorbenen, Geborenen, und 
 Verheyrateten in alien Kgl. Preuss. Provinzeii," containing the total 
 sums for 1751 and 1756. 
 
 Teile eines Glossarium Harmonicum. 
 
 Commentatio de pago antiquo brandenburgico Belchem. 
 
40 The Statistical Worh of Sussmilch. 
 
 Commentatlo de Stedingis. 
 
 Positiones de Theologia morali. 
 
 Varia collectanea ad hlstoriam sacram, etc. 
 
 Remarques sur I'histoire de Brandenbourg. 
 
 Anmerkungen zu Mich. Gedcjes Betrachtung der Mittel wodurch die 
 
 Romisclie Kirche ihre Leute zuriickhait, dass sie nicht za Erkenntniss 
 
 der Irrthiimer gelangen, so sich in ihrem Glauben . befinden. 
 Schediasma de bibliorum editionibus rarioribus. 
 Ob die Religion der Romer vor der christlichen in Ansehung der Bevolk- 
 
 erung eines Landes den Verzug gehabt. 
 Vorsclilag zu einer "Historia naturalis patriae." 
 Reflexions sur le traite I'liomme machine. 
 Memoire sur la diminution des mariages et des nalssances de quelques 
 
 provinces de S. M. Roi de Prusse depuis I'an 1754 jusqu' k 1740. 
 Von der Gefahr der grossen StSdte. 
 Dissertatlo problematica, num navigatio et expeditio in terras australes 
 
 utilis esse posslt, et ubl primae sedes slnt stablliendae. 
 Berechnung des Schadens, welchen die preussichen Lande durch epi- 
 
 demische Seuchen nnd Kriege in den drei Jahren 1756-58 erlitten 
 
 haben. 
 Abhandlungen, worin erwiesen wird, dass der westliche Theil von 
 
 Europa, besonders Teutschland, zu Julius CSsar's Zeiten nicht viel- 
 
 mal vollireicher gewesen sein lionne a)s es anjetzo ist; ja dass es 
 
 damals nicht die Haifte der jetzigen Einwohner ernahren konnen. 
 
 (See "Deutsche Biographle," xxxvii, 193.) 
 Betrachtnngen iiber die Religion. 
 
 It is as an author, and, particularly, as a writer on popu- 
 lation statistics that Siissmilch is entitled to recognition 
 from posterity. As the above bibliography indicates, his 
 writings comprise several pamphlets which treat of etymo- 
 logical subjects, some sermons, and a considerable number 
 of statistical pamphlets. His chief merit and fame, however, 
 rest upon one book, Die GottlicJie Ordnung, which may 
 properly be said to have constituted his principal life work. 
 '■'■ Die Gottliche Ordnung,'' says Siissmilch's eulogist, "was 
 properly the occupation of his whole life, the center of all 
 his reflections. After he had formed the plan, he never for 
 
The Statistical Work of Sussmilck. 41 
 
 a moment lost sight of it. He gathered from all sides the 
 aids which might enable him to perfect it. He consulted 
 the wise men whose knowledge might widen his own. In a 
 word, never was author seen more filled with his subject, 
 more given over to that sort of enthusiasm which persuades 
 that there is nothing better than what one is doing, and that 
 one is doing it the best that it can be done.'"-' 
 
 The first edition of Die Gottliche Ordnung was published 
 at Berlin in 1741. 
 
 This genuine, original work was followed in 1742 by what 
 John* considers to have been an unauthorized edition, an 
 exact copy of the original except that it has a changed and 
 more extended title.^ 
 
 Both imprints of this early edition are extremely rare, and 
 there is, therefore, good reason to believe that only a few 
 copies were printed.* 
 
 This early edition of Die Gottliche Ordnung contains two 
 prefaces ; one by the author, and one by the philosopher, 
 Christian Wolff.^ The author's preface is dated, " On the 
 
 1 Formey in Eistoire de VAcadimie Koyale des Sciences et Belles-lettres. 
 
 - John's Geschichte der Statistik, footnote, p. 242. 
 
 3 The title page of the 1741 edition mns as follows : *' Die gottliche Ordnung in den 
 Veranderungen des menschlichen Gescblechts, aus der Geburt, Tod, and Fortpflaiizung 
 desselben erwiesen Ton Jobann Peter Siissmilcb, Prediger beym hochloblichen Kalck- 
 Bteinischen Regiment. Nebst einer Vorrede Herm Christian Wolffens." 
 
 The 1742 edition bears the following title : "Die gottliche Ordnung in denen Verand- 
 erungen des menschlichen Gescblechts, das ist, grnndlicher Beweiss der gottliche Vorseh- 
 ung und Vorsorge fiir daa menschliche Geschlecht ana der Vergleichung der Gebohrnen 
 und Sterbendeu, der Verbeiratheten und Gebohrnen, wie aucb in sonderbeit aus der 
 bestalidigen Verhaltniss der gebohrnen Knaben und Madgeiis, wobei accurate und 
 Vieljahrige Listen der Gebohrnen and Geetorbenen in alien kbniglicben Preussicben 
 Landem, in London, Amsterdam, Paris, Wien, Berlin, Breslau, u. s. w., daraus der 
 Wachtsthnm und die Anzahl der Einwohner in selbigen L&ndern und Stsdten bestimmet 
 wird, nebst einem Vereuch, die Verhfiltniss der Sterbenden nach dem Alter und nach 
 denen Kranckheiten zu bestimmen und einer Anweisung zur niitzlichen £inrichtung der 
 Kirchen-Biicher, u. s. w. 
 
 * The present writer has never seen a copy of the 1741 edition, but was fortunate enough 
 to obtain for examination a copy of the 1742 imprint, in the Surgeon-General's Library, 
 at Washington. 
 
 '' Wolff's preface may be characterized as a commendation of the book and an apology 
 for its appearajice. In the middle of the eighteenth century mathematics was the domi- 
 nant science. The one requisite that was then thought to constitute the all-in-all of any 
 body of knowledge was exactness. . . . Wolff in his preface endeavors to anticipate any 
 
42 The Statistical Worh o_f Silssmilch. 
 
 march to Schweidnitz, March 27, 1741." The dedication is 
 addressed to Frederick II, now better known as Frederick 
 the Great.i 
 
 In the preface to the first edition of Die Gottliche Ordnung 
 Siissmilch says that he was led to investigate the subject of 
 population by the perusal of Derham's Physico-Theology, 
 which contained among other things a summary of the 
 observations made by Englishmen concerning lists of births, 
 deaths, and marriages. "Because these remarks were new 
 to me, a desire was awakened for further investigation, and 
 as the great utility of these truths was plainly evident, I 
 became attentive to everything which might strengthen them. 
 When I came back to Berlin from the University^ there fell 
 into my hands some additional lists, both from Berlin and for 
 the whole country. To my great satisfaction I observed an 
 almost complete agreement of our countries with England 
 in these matters. I got together everything that I could 
 find. The contributions which had been made for some 
 years in Breslau to medicine, physics, and other sciences con- 
 tained many lists . . . which in great measure confirmed the 
 order observed by the Englishmen . . . As I was gradually 
 led ever farther, the writings of the Lord-Mayor Graunt and 
 of the Knight Petty fell into my hands. ... To Graunt 
 belongs the highest praise, for he first broke the ice over 
 these new truths, and he first tried, in the search for them, 
 to make use of the London lists. Petty soon followed, and 
 
 objection that might be urged against the ideas advanced by Siissmilch on the ground of 
 their exactness. " It was a great folly," says Wolff, " to rather remain entirely ignorant 
 of a thing than be content with a knowledge in which there is not complete certainty. 
 . . . Proofs have been given how probable theories may be turned to account in human life. 
 The present author's book is such a proof, for none can well deny that the knowledge 
 of those things of which he treats have their manifold uses. No one can demand of him 
 demonstrated truths where the probability must satisfy, and those who entirely condemn 
 the undertaking because no certainty is to be had betray their own folly." 
 
 1 Sussmilch, in the preparation of his book, had experienced how extremely dif&cult it 
 is to gather statistical data without the aid of government. The work is dedicated to the 
 King in the hope that he might see fit oflcially to promote and encourage the collection 
 and compilation of data relating to population statistics. 
 3 It is uncertain what date is here referred to. 
 
The Statistical Work of Siissmilch. 43 
 
 in his attempts in political arithmetic not only accepted and 
 confirmed many of Graunt's propositions but also clearly 
 demonstrated their utility in politics and administration."' 
 
 When Siissmilch had completed the rough draft of his 
 book he was deterred for a time from publishing it, by the 
 appearance of two new works dealing, in part, with the same 
 phenomena. The first was Maitland's History of the City 
 of London, published in 1739, wliich contained numertius 
 observations on the London lists, which had then been kept 
 for more than a century. The second book was Struyck's 
 Einleitung zur Geographie, published in the Dutch language 
 in 1740. 
 
 Struyck had brought together the main facts found in 
 Graunt, Petty, and Maitland and had added some new lists 
 for Holland. Struyck's attention was chiefly directed to the 
 political uses of these lists, and especially to their utility in 
 determining life annuities. "But, as for the rest," says 
 Siissmilch, " it appears that Struyck desired rather to collect 
 these data for the tirst time than to give a complete treat- 
 ment. Therefore, after some delay, 1 held to the conclusion 
 I had once formed, especially since all the works mentioned 
 are rarely found and little read in our country." ^ 
 
 The election of Siissmilch to membership in the Berlin 
 Academy, in 1745, seems to have been largely due to the 
 publication of Die Gottliche Ordnung. After his admission 
 to the Academy, Maupertuis, its president and Frederick's 
 literary assistant, urged him to make the observations con- 
 tained in his book subjects for discussion before the Academy. 
 The invitation was accepted, and in this way many improve- 
 ments and extensions were made to the first edition. Siiss- 
 milch seems always to have taken a lively interest in the 
 
 1 Preface to the first edition of Die Gdttilche Ordnung^ 
 
 2 Besides Struyck, Keraaeboom wrote in Holland (1737-42) on the aubject of population. 
 Siissmilch, in his first edition, was anacqaainted with Kersseboom'a writings, and Kersse- 
 boom, thongh he wrote two pamphlets in 1742, was not acquainted with Siissmilch'a work. 
 Knapp, Tkeorie des Bevdikerwngs-Wechsels, p. 76. 
 
44 The Statistical Work of Siissmilch. 
 
 proceedings and an active part in the discussions of the 
 Academy. 
 
 There is no reason to suppose that the first edition of Die 
 Gottliche Ordnung was widely read or attracted much atten- 
 tion beyond the local circle of Berlin. It is important to 
 note, however, that there was one critic whom Siissmilch 
 attempted to answer. ^ Von Justi, in the Gottingen Policey- 
 Amts-Nachrichten, took occasion to question some of the 
 conclusions reached by Siissmilch, and particularly the state- 
 ment that more persons die, reckoned on the basis of the 
 total population, in the cities than in the country districts. 
 Von Justi took opposite ground declaring that more people 
 die in the rural districts than in the cities, as compared with 
 the respective populations. Von Justi asserted that deaths 
 were less frequent in the cities proportionately to population 
 because of the large number of temporary residents, the 
 majority of whom were of an age when deaths are compara- 
 tively infrequent. He held that the city inhabitants were 
 largely composed of servants, coachmen, travelling artisans, 
 soldiers, etc., together forming an element of the population 
 sufficiently important to reduce the death rates in the cities 
 below those of the rural districts. In Die Gottliche Ordnung 
 the deaths in cities had been given as, on the average, about • 
 one in thirty, and in the countrj' as about one in forty of the 
 living inhabitants. Von Justi claimed that in cities one in 
 sixty, or in very populous cities, like London and Paris, one 
 in one hundred would represent the proportion more nearly 
 corresponding to the facts. 
 
 In 1756 Siissmilch published two letters in answer to this 
 criticism of Von Justi and to other minor criticisms by the 
 same author. After a careful analysis of all the data obtain- 
 able, he had become strengthened in the opinion that death 
 
 1 Criticisms upon Die OoMiclie Ordnung appeared in the Gottinger Gelehrten-Anzeigen. 
 (17B6, 1761, and 1762). These were written by Haller, and were concerned with the physi- 
 olo^cal and scientihc aspects of SUssmilch's researches. Wappaus, Studium der Statistik^ 
 p. 79. 
 
The Statistical Work of Siissmilch. 45 
 
 rates are higher in the cities than in the rural districts.^ 
 The facts which were presented at this time, and the con- 
 clusions reached, are given in substantially the same form 
 in the second edition of Die Gottliche Ordnunrj, published 
 in 1761 and 1762. 
 
 This second edition is an entirely new revision of the first. 
 A comparison of the two as regards size will give some idea 
 of the extensions which. Siissmilch had seen fit to make during 
 the twenty years (1741-61) which separated them. The first 
 edition was a small octavo volume of 356 pages. It contained 
 nine chapters, and an appendix of eighteen tables. The 
 second edition is composed of two quarto volumes of 576 
 and 625 pages, respectively, exclusive of the appendices, 
 which together contain sixty-eight tables. The chapters 
 have increased from nine to twenty-five. 
 
 If further evidence is wanted to prove how much labor 
 must have been expended in recasting the first edition, we 
 have Siissrailch's own testimony. He informs us that his 
 evening hours for a period of two years were spent in revis- 
 ing a single chapter.^ When at last he determined to rewrite 
 the whole book, he labored at the task during all his spare 
 tiiue for a period of three years before the first part was sent 
 to the press .^ 
 
 This new edition is also dedicated to Frederick II, who 
 had given, says the author, convincing proofs of his discern- 
 ment of the utility of the observations contained in the first 
 
 1 For a lODg time after the pablication of these letters Von Jasti made no rejoinder, 
 directly or indirectly. Soon after the letters were pnbliahed, Siissmilch met Von Justi, 
 but his critic gave no hint that he still held to his former opinions. Siissmilch naturally 
 assumed that this silence indicated Von Justi's conversion. He was mistaken. In 1760, 
 Von Justi published a work on Staatswissenschaft^ in which he held to his former 
 opinions without any modifications or further proofs in support of them. This book did 
 not come to Siissrailch's notice until the first part of the second edition of Die Gottliche 
 Ordnung was nearly printed. Siissmilch confessed his astonishment at Von Justi's course, 
 but did not think it worth while to reopen the controversy. Die Gdttliche Ordnung, 2nd 
 ed., vol. ii, note pp. viii-x. 
 
 2 This statement is made in the second letter in answer to Von Justi. The chapter to 
 which reference is made is chap, vi, Deaths by Ages. 
 
 3 Preface to the second edition of Die Guttliche Ordnung. 
 
46 The Statistical Work of SUssmilch. 
 
 edition.! -phe king, too, throughout his reign had demon- 
 strated that he held a rational Bevolkerung to be the chief 
 duty of a ruler, and had given a substantial proof of the 
 importance which he attached to data relating to population. 
 In June, 1747, he had ordered, not only that lists should be 
 drawn up in all the Prussian provinces, but, in addition, data 
 was to be collected for the preceding fifteen years.^ 
 
 In 1765 appeared the third edition of Die GottUche Ord- 
 nung. This was the last edition to come under the author's 
 eye. 
 
 The original edition contained the germ of all the more 
 important ideas found in the later editions. The ideas are 
 put in a better dress in the later editions ; the arrangement, 
 while still in many ways unsatisfactory, is more logical ; and 
 the larger amount of data at the author's command naturally 
 necessitated the introduction of slight corrections in some of 
 the many ratios which had been presented in 1741.^ 
 
 1 One imprint of this second edition contains, besides the dedication to Frederick the 
 G-reat, a dedication to Peter III of Russia. 
 
 2 John, Geschichte der Statistik, pp. 270, 271. 
 
 3 Knapp's assertion ( Thiorie des Bevolkemngs- Wechsels, p. 76) that the second edition 
 of Die Gottliche Ordnung has risen from an insipid theodicy to a national economic and 
 political work is perhaps a little misleading. While the theological considerations do not 
 form so large a part of the second edition as of the first, there are quite as many of them 
 in the later edition. In the extensions, however, emphasis was laid upon the scientific, 
 rather than upon the theological discussions. From this point of view, the later edition 
 is less dominantly theological than the first, though the theological undercurrent is still 
 strong.