WWM STUDY JN M«LTHUiSlttNiSM ALBERT R. MANN . LIBRARY New York State Colleges OF Agriculture and Home Economics- AT Cornell University Cornell University Library HB 863.T45 3 1924 013 756 386 Cornell University Library The original of tiiis book is in tine Cornell University Library. There are no known copyright restrictions in the United States on the use of the text. http://www.archive.org/details/cu31924013756386 3 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM STUDIES IN HISTORY, ECONOMICS AND PUBLIC LAW EDITED BY THE FACULTY OF POLITICAL SCIENCE OF COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY Volume LXIII] [Number 3 Whole Number 153 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM BY WARREN S. THOMPSON, Ph.D. Instructor in Sociology in the University of Michigan ^m fork COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY LONGMANS, GREEN & CO., AGENTS London : P. S. King & Son, Ltd. 19IS -X >i5' Copyright, 1915 BY WARREN S. THOMPSON PREFACE I FIRST began to work on the question of population at the suggestion of Professor Giddings. I soon found that there was a large amount of statistical material bear- ing upon this subject which had, for the most part, been neglected in the discussions of the growth of population. The eiifort to make use of some of this material has resulted in this essay. At all stages of my work I have been able to profit by the suggestions and criticisms of a number of the men teaching sociology and economics at Columbia. I am under special obligations, however, to Professors Cooley and Chaddock who have read the proofs in addition to the other aid they have given me. W. S. Thompson. Ann Arbor, April, 1915. 349] S TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE CHAPTER I The Meaning of Malthusianism 9 '' CHAPTER II yiEws ON Population Held by Some of the Recent Writers ON Economics 19 CHAPTER III Wages and Prices 38 - CHAPTER IV i Cereal, Pulse and Root Crops SS CHAPTER V ' Animals on Farms 61 CHAPTER VI Otheb Food Stuffs and the Possibility of Increasing the Supply 72 CHAPTER VII ^ Imports and Exports of Food Stuffs 88 CHAPTER VIII ,The Movement of Population, 1860-1910 91 J CHAPTER IX >/The Growth of Population AND Food Supply 113 CHAPTER X \ The Outlook in the Light of the Evidences of the Opera- L-^jlON OF THE Law of Diminishing Returns 131 CHAPTER XI Summary and Conclusion 156 Appendix A 166 Appendix B i73 Appendix C 178 ■351] 7 CHAPTER I The Meaning of Malthusianism In undertaking a study of population in relation to the means of subsistence, the first thing to do is to make a clear statement of the meaning of the term Malthusianism. This is necessary both because of a widespread misconcep- tion of Malthus' contentions as he modified them in the second and succeeding editions of Ins Essay, and because of'ttfe need of a'defiriite'slatement of his doctrine as it is understood in this study. In giving this account of Mal- thus' doctrine I shall use the sixth edition of his Essay. This edition does not differ materially from the second, but at the same time it embodies his most mature thought upon this question, and therefore is the one from which to get the most complete and accurate statement of his doc- trine. In the first chapter Malthus sets forth his reasons for believing thatlpopulation, if_uncjiecked injts growth, tends to increase in geometrical^ ratio while food can only in- crease in arithmetical ratio.) In the second chapter, which is entitled. Of the General Checks to Population and the Mode of Their Operation, he maJses no use of these two ratios. I shall quote a few passages from this chapter which will show his position clearly. He opens the chapter as follows: The ultimatedheck to population appears then to be a want of food, arising necessarily from the different ratios according to which population and food increase. But this ultimate 353] 9 lO POPULATION^ A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [354 check is never the immediate check, except in cases of actual famine. The immediate check may be stated to consist in all those customs, and all those diseases, which seem to be generated by a scarcity of the means of subsistence ; and all those causes, independent of this scarcity, whether of a moral or physical nature, which tend prematurely to weaken and destroy the human frame. These checks to population, which are constantly operating with more or less force in every society, and keep down the number to the level of the means of subsistence, may be classed under two general heads — ^the preventive, and the positive checks.^ It is very apparent in this quotation that Malthus does not hold the actual pressure upon food immediately respon- sible for checking the growth of population under ordinary circumstances. This is made still clearer by his statement of the attitude of mind of a prudent man in a civilized country who is contemplating marriage. He says : But man cannot look around him, and see the distress which frequently presses upon those which have large families; he cannot contemplate his possessions or earnings, which he now nearly consumes himself, and calculate the amount of each share, when with very little addition they must be divided, per- haps, among seven or eight, without feeling a doubt whether, if he follow the bent of his inclinations, he may be able to support the offspring which he will probably bring into the world. In a state of equality, if such can exist, this would be the simple question. In the present state of society other con- siderations occur. Will he not lower his rank in life, and be obliged to give up in great measure his former habits? Does any mode of employment present itself by which he may rea- 1 Malthus, An Essay on the Principle of Population (sixth ed.. Lon- don, 1826), vol. i, p. 12. 355] THE MEANING OF MALTHVSIANISM n sonably hope to maintain a family? Will he not at any rate subject himself to greater difficulties, and more severe labour, than in his single state? Will he not be unable to transmit to his children the same advantages of education and improvement that he himself possessed? Does he even feel secure that, should he have a large family, his utmost exertions can save them from rags and squalid poverty, and their consequent deg- radation in the community? And may he not be reduced to the grating necessity of forfeiting his independence, and of being obliged to the sparing hand of Charity for support ? ^ This: prudential restraint upon marriage Malthus calls moral restraint when it " is not followed by irregular grati- fications ". He also regards this restraint as the most wholesome, and would like to see its practice increased, for he regards preventive checks and positive checks as varying inversely.^ In speaking of the positive checks to population, Malthus says: JThe positive checks to population are extremely various, and include every cause, whether arising from vice or misery, which in any degree contributes to shorten the natural duration of human life. Under this head, therefore, may be enumerated all unwholesome occupations, severe labour and exposure to the seasons, extreme poverty, bad nursing of children, great towns, excesses of all kinds, the whole train of common dis- eases and epidemics, wars, plague, and famine, ^i These positive checks, he thought, were rather more directly due to pressure of population on subsistence than the pre- ventive checks. There can be no doubt, however, that he thought of all of them as traceable to this cause. In closing this chapter, Malthqj lays down three propo- sitions which " are intended to be proved " : ' Malthus, op. cit., p. 13. 'Ibid., p. 17. ^Ibid., p. 15. 12 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [356 1. Population is necessarily limited by the means of sub- sistence. 2. Population invariably increases where the means of sub- sistence increase, unless prevented by some very powerful and obvious checks. [A note by Malthus is omitted]. 3. These checks, and the checks which repress the superior power of population, and keep its effects on a level with the means of subsistence, are all resolvable into moral restraint, vice and misery. The first of these propositions scarcely needs illustration. The second and third will be sufficiently established by a review of the immediate checks to population in the past and in the present state of society. ^ In view of what has been brought forward here, it is apparent that Malthus himself attached very little impor- tance to the exact statement of arithmetic and geometric ratios in the growth of the means of subsistence and popu- lation. His discussion of positive and preventive checks also shows that he was not unaware of the social and eco- nomic complications of the question, as does also his specific treatment of these checks in the various countries which he studies. He finds preventive checks at work in every coun- try. These preventive checks he traces very carefully into their social ramifications and shows a truly remarkable understanding of the immediate motives which are at work. When Malthus' own statement of his position is studied, many of the criticisms made upon his doctrine become meaningless. For he did not hold many of the views often attributed to him. He specifically says that lack of sub- sistence is not the immediate cause of checking the growth of population except in case of famine. He then proceeds, as I have already shown by quotations, to enumerate .the preventive motives which he thinks play so important a 1 Malthus, op. cit., pp. 23, 24. 357] THE MEANING OF MALTHUSIANISM 13 part. But, of course, he has in his mind all of the time that these preventive motives are really brought into play because.jDi the hardships which would have to be endured if the course of nature were followed withoyt-restraint. "The doctrine of Malthusis not refuted by showing that the population of any given country is not limited by the food which it produces. This is not one of his explicit propositions, although in his discussion of the checks opera- tive in the various countries he seems to clearly imply that their populations are to all intents limited by the food which these countries can produce. This was true in a large measure in his day, and has only ceased to be true because of the cheap carriage due to the improved means of trans- portation. But this part of his argument has no organic connection with his main proposition, which remains un- affected by the attacks upon his foresight in this matter. The main proposition which Malthus puts forward is that " Population inyaria,hly- increases where the means of subsistence increase, unless prevented by some very power- ful and obvious checks ".^ I wish to quote here also a part of a note which" Malthus adds in connection with the above: It should be observed, that, by an increase in the means of subsistence, is here meant such an increase as will enable the mass of the society to command more food. An increase might certainly take place, which in the actual state of a par- ticular society- would not be distributed to the lower classes, and consequently would give no stimulus to population.^ Malthus thought it followed from this proposition that population was always pressing on the actual food supply unless these " very powerful and obvious checks " were 1 Cf. supra, p. 12. * ' Malthus, op. cit., p. 24. 14 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [358 present. He regarded misery in almost all of its forms as proof of his position, and he also believed that much of what he called " moral restraint " was due to the fear of misery. The Malthusian position then really is this : Although at any normal time there is food enough to keep alive all members of the population, yet it is only actual pressure upon subsistence (operating in certain portions of the pop- ulation) or fear of pressure (which assumes manifold forms) which keeps population from multiplying more rapidly than it actually does. It may appear to some that this statement of the Malthu- sian principle of population is not in accordance with the real thought of Malthus. I can only say in reply, that the quotations I have given seem to bear me out and that I can see no other interpretation which a careful and un- biased study of the Essay will warrant. It is, of course, im- possible in this place to adduce every statement which has a direct bearing upon this matter. Besides, it is very difficult to convey the spirit of a work by picking out a passage here and there as I have of necessity done. To bring out more clearly the meaning of this positive statement of Malthus' doctrine, it may be well to state some of the things which it does not mean, since so many different interpretations have been put upon it. In the first place, it does not mean that actual fear of the want of food is the ever-present motive in the minds of all people which 4seeps_them_fxom,_ rearing Large families. In the second place, it does not mean that all of any population is in want at any given time. That is to say, Malthus clearly recog- nizes that in different classes of the population the procur- ing of the means of subsistence has different effects as re- gards the size of families, and therefore on the growth of population. 359] THE MEANING OF MALTHUSIANISM 15 In addition, he calls specific attention to the oscillations in the- growth ...oi-populatioiis. He devotes considerable space to showing how it could come about that a population could be alnwjt^tationary atone tiffig and increase rapidly at another time. He does not definitely prove that this has been the case, because he lacks the statistics which would enable him to do so. Furthermore, Malthus saw that the system of distribution which prevailed in a nation had its influence on the growth of population. He saw that if the increase of food produced went to the upper class in the form of new luxuries, it would Jiave no effect, in relaxing the-pressure upon thelaboring classes. It is only an extreme form of this idea which some modern reformers voice when they say that our system of distribution is to. blame for all economic ills. Malthus would not agree with this extreme view, but he would freely admit that at any given time — except famine times^ — there was food enough to* keep all alive, and no doubt he would also agree that a better dis- tribution would for the moment relieve many human ills. His main contention is, however, that such a-distribution would be of onlyjnomentary benefit. The lower classes of the population would soon be at the subsistence level again. For In every country some of these checks are, with more or less force, in constant operation; yet, notwithstanding their gen- eral prevalence, there are few states in which there is not a constant effort in the population to increase beyond the means of subsistence. This constant effort as constantly tends to subject the lower classes of society to distress, and to prevent any great permanent melioration of their 'condition.^ There are, then, two main parts to Malthus' thesis. The first relates to the tendency of population to increase in ' Malthur, oj>. cit., p. 17. l6 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [360 numbers with the increase in production of food ; the sec- ond relates to the effect of this increase upon the lower classes of the population where the burden falls. Hie first part may be stated in another way, viz., that the supply of labor tends to increase faster than the demand for it — ex- cept under unusual conditions. He considered most of the evil which could be called misery and vice as proof of this contention. Naturally this led to the other part of his thesis. If the supply of labor was tending to increase faster than the demand for it, there would not be sufficient of the necessities of life to go around, and the result would be a lower class which was always suflfering from a lack of them. But it would be a mistake to think that Malthus looked upon the evils of over-population as altogether with- out remedy. He did maintain that there would always be suffering- due ia this cause, but the following passage will serve to show that he believed this would become propor- tionately less as civilization advanced : r^ From a review of the state of society in former periods, compared with the present, I should certainly say that the evils resulting from the principle of population have rather dimin- ished than -4ne»eased, even under the disadvantage of an al- most total ignorance of the real cause. And if we can indulge the hope that this ignorance will be-gradualljr dissipated, it does not seem unreasonable to expect that they will be still further diminished. The increase. of absolute population, which will of course 4ake- place, will evidently tend but little to weaken this expectation, as everything depends upon the relative pro- portion between population and~?obd, and not on the absolute number of people. In the former part of this work it ap- peared that the countries, which possessed the fewest people, often suffered the most from the effects of the principle of popula.tion : and it can scarcely be doubted that, taking Europe throughout, fewer famines and fewer diseases arising from 361] THE MEANING OF MALTHUSIANISM 17 want have prevailed in the last century than in those which preceded it.' '^■' "On the whole, therefore, though our future prospects re- specting the mitigation of the evils arising from the principle of population may not be so bright as we could wish, yet they are far from being entirely disheartening, and by no means pre- clude that gja.dual.-aiid„ progressive improvement in human society, which, before the late wild" speculations on" this sub- ject, was the object of rational expectation. To the laws of property and marriage, and to the apparently narrow principle of self-interest which prornpts each individual to exert himself in bette^mg his condition, we are indebted for all the noblest exertions of human genius, for everything that distinguishes the civilized from the savage state. A strict inquiry into the principle of population obliges us to conclude that we shall never be able to throw down the ladder, by which we have risen to this eminence; but.it, by no means proves, that we may not rise higher by the same means.^'-?'- I am aware that the meaning which I have ascribed to Malthus' doctrine does not agree with what is usually un- derstood by the term Malthusianism. Most men discuss his doctrine as set forth in the first edition of the Essay. In this edition his view is decidedly pessimistic. He holds that man is doomed to perpetual suffering because there is a strong tendency for population to exceed the food supply, and that this tendency cannot be checked. In the passages just quoted from the last chapter of the sixth edition of the Essay he modifies this view. He does this because greater experience and study have convinced him that progress has been made in the mitigation of human suffering due to over- population and because he belieye_s still further progress is in sight. It seems to me, then, that it is only fair to Malthus to give this modified view the name of Malthusianism and ' Malthus, op. cit., vol. ii, pp. 440, 441. l8 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [362 not to associate this word solely with the earlier views which he expressed, as is usually done. If more mature reflection and wider study convinced Malthus that his earlier doc- trine was extreme, then his name should be associated with the results of his later work as well as his earlier, and we should think of him as the author of the sixth edition of the Essay as well as of the first. CHAPTER II Views on Population Held by Some of the Recent Writers on Economics The purpose of this chapter is to give an idea of the present state of opinion among economists regarding the doctrine of population. The views which are brought forth here will not be criticized; they will be studied merely to ascertain the chief points of agreement or disagreement with the doctrine of Malthus as given in the preceding chapter. This seems to me the best method by which to bring forth their salient features in a brief manner. ~Pi:Qfe§SQr.^lX speaks of the situation of India as well illustrating the actual check of population by lack of food in years of crop failure. Here in famine times the birth rate decreases and the death rate increases, while in the year following, if it is a normal year, the death rate decreases and the birth rate increases. We do not find this condition in the nations which have acceptedJhe- methods^ of produc- tieirirr-nseJEuwestern, civilization, and so some economists are inclined to look upon fanjinesag,-«peci9lcjcases, and therefore credit the lack of food with little, significance as regards the growth of population. He then reviews, briefly th^ growth of •population in the nations which have accepted the modern- n ^thods of^ ^ppeduction. He finds proof here of an increase of food bringing about an increase of num- berSrjQJj&sn,, and he concludes as follows : In view of these facts it is impossible to deny a large amount of significance to the Malthusian theory of population. Popu- lation has generally increased wherever the increase in wealth 363] 19 20 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [364 has afforded it opportunity. Yet it does not follow that the Malthusian theory is, in its strictest interpretation, true.^ Population has not increased as rapidly as wealth has increased. Average realTtipomesai-'e very miich higher thanitoey were be- fore the Industrial Revolution— a statement that holds true for average real .w^ges as -a particular form of income. Inter- prefed in the light of tlje theory: of ..diminishing productivity, this means that population has not increased so rapidly as capital and the available supply of land have increased. If there had been no increase in population during the last one hundred and fifty years, the marginal productivity of labor would (if, nevertheless, modern methods of production had been developed) have been very, ijiuch higher than it is, and wages would h.a-ve been correspondingly higher, than they are.^ Thus it is seen that Professor Ely accepts the first part of the Malthusian doctrine as substantially true. He does not express himself regarding the second part of the doctrine. Professor Alfred Marshall's views can be given best by quoting, since they are concisely stated. He says : Malthus' reasoning consists of three parts, which must be kept distinct. The first relates to the supply of labour. By a careful study of facts he proves that every people, of' whose history we possess a trustworthy record, has been so prolific that the growth of its numbers would have been rapid and continuous if it had not been checked either by a scarcity of the necessaries of life, or some other cause, that is, by disease, by war, by infanticide, or lastly by voluntary restraint. His second position relates to the demand for labour. Like the first it is supported by facts, but by a different set of facts. He shows that up to the time at which he wrote no country (as distinguished from a city, such as Rome or Venice) had been able to obtain an abundant supply of the necessaries of life after its territory had become very thickly peopled. X.he ' This probably refers to the doctrines of the first edition. ^ Ely, Outlines of Economics (New York, 1908), p. 376. 365] VIEWS OF SOME RECENT WRITERS 3 1 produce which Nature returns to the work of man js her ef- fejitive- demand ipr Eopulatipn : and he shows that uploThis time a rapid increase in population when already thick had not led to a proportionate increase in this demand. [Marshall's note not quoted here. Supra, pp. 9, 10.] Thirdly, he draws the conclusion that what had been in the past, was likely to be in the future; and that the growth of population would be checked by poverty or some other cause of suffering unless it were checked by voluntary restraint. He therefore urges people to use this restraint, and, while leading lives of moral purity, to abstain from very early marriages. [Marshall's note omitted.] His position with regard to the supply of population, with which alone we are directly concerned in this chapter, remains substantially valid. The changes which the course of events has introduced into the doctrine of population relate chiefly to the second and third steps of his reasoning. We have already noticed that the English economists of the earlier half of last century overrated the tendency of an increasing population to press upon the means of subsistence ; and it was not Malthus' fault that he could not foresee the great development of steam transport by land and by sea, which have enabled Englishmen of the present generation to obtain the products of the richest lands of the earth at a comparatively small cost. But the fact that he did not foresee these changes makes the second and third steps of his arguments antiquated in form; though they are still in great measure valid in substance. It remains true that unless the checks on the growth of population in force at the end of the nineteenth century are on the whole increased (they are certain to change their form in places that are as yet imperfectly civilized) it will be impossible for the habits of comfort prevaiHng in Western Europe to spread themselves over the whole world and maintain themselves for many hundred years. But more of this hereafter. [A note by Marshall is omitted.] '• ^ Marshall, Principles of Economics (sixth ed., London, 1910), pp. 178-80. 22 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [366 Thus we see that Professor Marshall also accepts the first part of the doctrine of Malthus as substantially sound, and in other portions of his work he also accepts the second part, although modifying it to some extent. Professor Taussig opens his discussion on population with a statement t)f the maximum birth rate and the minimum death rate. By subtracting the latter from the former he finds that it would be possible for the human species to double its numbers^in a period of about 23 years. So he holds to the statement that population "has a tendency to increase at a geometrical ratiojevery_23Jto_2_5_jears. He definesTHe word tendency as meaning "that there are forces in operation which unless counteracted will bring about the given result." ^ He then proceeds to an examination of the birth rates and death rates of several of the European countries to see whether he can find in these rates any evidence that any portion of the population is pressing on the means of sub- sistence. Roumania, Hungary, Saxony, Bavaria and Italy all have high birtli-rates -and high- death ^ rate s, and this in- dicates that population is trying--tCLi£SJCease„ia5ieruih*t^ food is increasing. The Malthusian principle is at work in these countries. The same is true of those countries which have a high rate of infant mortality. In some of the countries as high as 20 per cent to 25 per cent of the children born fail to live one year. Those countries which do not show a high death rate but have a moderately high birtl;i rate, often have a large amount of -emigig^on, which has the effect of relieving the pressure on food for the time being. Professor Taussig then goes on to say: Jigh bi rth rates ^igh de ath rates, backward, industrial condi- trons, low wages, — these commonly go together>-~©nt which is ' Taussig, Principles of Economics (New York, 1911), vol. ii, p. 212. 367] VIEWS OF SOME RECENT WRITERS 23 cause and which is eff ect? The unqualified Malthusian view is tEatthepressure of population, indicated by a high birth rate, is the cause from which all the evils flow, and that the one effective mean of improvement is a lowering of the birth rate. But the situation is not quite so simple as this.^ After showing that all these factors work together as causes and effects, he continues: None the less, it is clear that restraint on the increase of numbers is one essential condition of improvement. Stated in this way the Malthusian position is impregnable. A limita- tion in numbers is not a cause of high wages, but it is a condi- tion of the maintenance of high wages." ^ After a brief discussion of the standard of living, age of marriage, and decline of the birth rate as factors in the growth of population, he concludes that " individualism is at the root of the phenomenon ".* By individualism he means the "desire of each individual tO' improve his condi- tion ".* He seems to think that this is the preventive check which will come to operate to keep population down so that the positive checks will become inoperative. He even thinks it likely that in the advanced cotmtries the preven- tive checks are being carried toO' far. His outlook on the future is very naturally different from that of Malthus, ^ince he sees some slight danger of race suicide in the ■operation of the preventive checks. But more than this, he believes that the able and intelligent men are preponder- antly among the classes in which these checks operate most strongly, and so fears race deterioration unless these classes hold their own in the matter of numbers. , ' Taussig, op. cit., vol. ii, p. 220. ' Ibid., p. 221. ^Ibid., p. 232. ■* Ibid., p. 231. 24 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [368 Aside from these exceptions Professor Taussigfs views are substantially those of Malthus. The principle of popu- lation is applicable he thinks to certain classes among all people although it applies less and less as a people rises in the scale of civilization. Professor Gide, after recounting the rate of increase of population of some of thenations in modern times, goes on to show what would be the consequences of such a rate of increase if it were continued for a very long period. To know the causes which would prevent such an increase, he says, would be to know the law of population. He seems to think that biology will give us this law. He then gives the theory of Spencer that the fertility of any species varies inversely with the development of the individuals of that species. He expresses the hope thjit as the race advances mentally and morally the _tecundity of the human species -. will slacken. - Thus Professor Gide holds that at present population does press upon the food supply, but this state will probably not continue long.^ He looks for the slackening in the growth of population to take place in an entirely different manner from what Malthus thought it would. For he looks to bio- logical changes in the human Organism to bring about a reduction of human fertility.^ M. Levasseur shows statistically that consumption of foodstuffs has proceeded fastef than their production in the countries of western Europe in the latter two-thirds of the nineteenth century.^ This has only been possible be- cause of the greatly increased productiveness of industry in general. This he thinks proves that population has not beSi'pressing upon the food^upply. We must take account ' Gide, Principles of Political Economy. Translated by E. P. Jacob- sen (Boston, 1891), pp. 320-23. ' Levasseur, La PojiulaMonJratiioise (Paris, 1889-92), vol. iii, ch. ii 369] VIEWS OF SOME RECENT WRITERS 25 of the foreign commerce of a nation in foodstuffs, and when we do "tliiswe'Tind that the population of these coun- tries, has not, been .increasing as fast as their food supply, and so the proposition of Malthus has been controverted. He then proceeds in Chapter III of the same volume to make a statistical study of the growth of riches in general, and the growth in population. In this he shows that the growth in riches has been more rapid than that of popu- lation. He supports this view by showing the change which has taken place in the manner of living. I quote: What has become of the time when the entire family of a small shopkeeper of Paris gathered around a single candle in the evening, when the workman breakfasted on the corner of a table in his workshop with two sous worth of bread and the same amount of fried potatoes, when the good merchants planned for a Sunday picnic in the woods of Boulogne, and carrying in their baskets the cloths, dishes and food, spread their table upon the grass? It is far behind us, sixty years and more away, and the present generation, which has dif- ferent customs will not restore it to us. . . . It prefers the tramways and the railway carriages of the Porte Saint-Denis and it is proper to do so. But if in Paris, in 1889, this mode of living has furnished 330,000,000 passengers to the omni- buses, tramways, small carriages and boats on the Seine and if the letters delivered by the railroads passed 230,000,000 in the same year it is necessary that more should be paid for moving about than our ancestors paid when they did not hav€ the railways.^ Then he mentions some more of the ways in which we are better off than our ancestors and proceeds to state his belief with regard to the continuation of the present pros- perous cocndition of the civilized nations : ^ Levasseur, op. cit., vol. iii, p. iii. 26 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [370 Thus the nineteenth century has fortunately contradicted the prophecies of Malthus. Will the twentieth have the same fortune? Science, steam, mechanics, chemistry, electricity have been prodigal of their favors to those who mastered them. From this resulted a growth of production which has never been seen hitherto. It is this which in part explains why riches have grown faster than population. ^ He believes that we do not know enough regarding the ap- plication of the law of diminishing returns to the newer industries to justify the. fear _that the present rate of prog- ress in economic production cannot continue, for he says: We will content ourselves with remarking that the known facts do not justify such apprehensions. Man did not know, or recognized but dimly a hundred years ago the use of the forces and materials of nature which have so greatly enriched him. Does he know to-day all those which nature has hidden in her bosom? Electricity has only entered upon the scene; aluminum of which the earth contains an immeasurable quan- tity, only awaits a less costly process of manufacture in order to become a useful metal of the first order ; the tide, the force of which is renewed each day and is inexhaustible, is ready to furnish power when coal becomes rare; the past and present seem to bear guarantees for the future; humanity need not arrest itself upon the way of progress by thinking that this way, of which it cannot perceive the end, cannot prolong itself into infinity. ^ M. Levasseur certainly could not be classed as a believer in the doctrine of Malthus. He sees no pressure of popu- lation upon food supply. The progress of scientific produc- tion has relieved the pressure, and relieved it (presumably) for all time. It is evident that he has in mind here the 1 Levasseur, op. cit, vol. iii, pp. 112, 113. -Ibid., vol. iii, p. 113. 371 ] VIEWS OF SOME RECENT WRITERS 27 French people in particular, and this brings us to the most striking feature of his whole treatment of the question. In stating Malthus' position, he does it with great fairness and seems to understand it thoroughly. In his own treat- ment, however, he looks at the whole question from the point of view of national economy^, His attitude is that of a man studying a single nation. This is perfectly legiti- mate, of course, but it is surprising that he does not seem to recognize that Malthus' doctrine was not meant to be confined to any given time or people. He seems to think that the facts he has produced overturn the doctrine of Malthus, whereas, they ^re really only a special case bi the alternate pressure and release of pressure which Malthus called attention to. His observations afie based on so nar- row a set of facts that his conclusions cannot have the validity which he seems to think they have, unless it should happen to be the case that his study is typical of many others which are yet to be made.^ F. S. Nitti divides his work on Population and the Social System into two books. The first is taken up with an en- deavor to show that all the theories of population hitherto advanced have been due to special and extraordinary social situations. Each author oi a theory has been subject to certain specific influences which have made his theory of momentary value only. There have been certain political, economic and social events which have so acted upon the thought of these men that they have not been able to state anything of universal validity, although many of them have thought that they had done so. • This statement of M. Levasseur's position may. possibly seem unfair at fiKst inasmuch as his great work is avowedly upon the French'popu- lation. But a perusal of chapters i, ii, iii, vol. iii, will convince any one that he intends this part of his work to have a universal applica- tion. 28 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [^y2 In Book II, then, Nitti sets forth what he considers the true law of population. It is rather difficult to state his position, for he is scarcely consistent. I shall endeavor to state his theory with a view to emphasizing those points which seem to me to be characteristic of the spirit of his discussion. I shall first quote a passage which seems to me quite contrarv to t he view shehplds, and shall leave it to the reader to decide whether this passage should have much weight in view of what follows. He says : It is well to note here that the automatic excess of population, which occurs in the three primitive periods, the barbarous, the pastoral, and the agricultural, and also, although in a slighter degree, in the fourth, has been the greatest causeof human progress, since it has compelled entire populations to either un- dergo a transformation or to decay, and it has forced the primMve^ civilization to leave the static period and to enter upon the dynamic period. But as humanity became civilized, and as the last two phases (the industrial and commercial civilizations) succeeded to the three earlier, so the production of men has always proportioned itself to the production of the meansxii subsistence.^ Contrast with this the following : The bir th-rate i s__subiect to laws which were utterly un- known-toJ\ialth.us.and the Malthusians. We have seen nations eptef-Hgoa.a ^eriod of great civiHzation, become rich, have a Ij^y dense populatl5», and then suddenly become^nnpopulous and decadent "froin'a slow jmem ja. And on the other hand we have seen nations- wJiieh-Jang remained in a state of slight civilization, become rs^ydly-popuiatea^and the centres of a new civilization under the influences of external causes. Many ancient civilized states_^ame to an epd-aqt by invasions or war, but solely by a fce.ssfitinn'nrtBgtotb-rat^ 1 Nitti, Population and the Social System. Translated under the di- rection! of the author (London, 1894), p. 112. ^y^] VIEWS OF SOME RECENT WRITERS 29 Malthus' law explains nothing just as it comprehends noth- ing. Bomid by rigid formulas which are belied by history and demography, it is incapable of explaining not only the mystery of poverty but the alternate reverses of human civilization.^ Again he says : The problem of population must be chiefly considered from the standpoint of the distri bution of, wealth with which it is strictly bound up. We can assert that a country which, in the actual form of economic constitution, is capable of sustaining a certain number of individuals, could sustain a much greater number when the economic form is changed in the direction of a _ wider distribution of the wealth .produced. Against this truth, essential to aiiyone who would thoroughly grasp the phenomenon of population, some theorists have ventured to raise arguments, which do not well sustain even the slightest scrutiny.^ Of course\an men recognize that there is food for those who are. alive^Btit, aside from recognition of this fact, Nitti 'means thaTpopulation .grows accordiiig to the social con ij^ i ti nn A-in- ..w hTr^|i~~ppnpl p live, and not according to the greatgr_x)r„less. intensity of the pressure upon food supply. He even goes so far as to say that " The famines of the past, which seemed to Malthus to be the terrible penalty inflicted by nature upon those who attempted to do it violence by wishing to sit at the banquet of life, when all the places were taken, were cadsed, as we h ave already said, by the.^n suHiaenrm"arjc^ t and thl^xcpnomic order, and not by natural causes.® He reviews very briefly a large number of social factors ' Nitti, op. cit., p. 114. ^ Ibid., p. 102. ^I-bid., p. 96. 30 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [374 which he considers important in their influence upon the birth rate. In many instances he uses statistics in support of his position, and considers that he has pfoved h^ thesis, as manyjj)assages testify. But near the end he seems to waver, for he'iritroiduces the theory of Spencer regarding the relation of individualization and=4)Ower of reproduc- tion.^ This seems like an instiffi:iive^llrinking back from the position whichhe hasj.gJaboriously upheld. It seems to indicate a sort of extra-rational' feeling- that if the pres- ent system of distribution wereJbettCTed_so that the present checks upon poputationTwere released, there would be a ten- dency to grj-[ VIEWS OF SOME RECENT WRITERS 33 poor is very large; it may be said to have become a staple without regard to previous food customs because of its small waste, its solid nutriment, and its low price. Like sugar, the banana can never again be a luxury ; its simplicity and economy of preparation and its compact food values have added it per- manently to the laborer's fund of goods. It is the worker who reaps the advantage of food bargains not to be found in stationary shops. The huckster whose expenses are low offers his wares late at night and calls to the windows many purchasers who have waited for him to take advantage of the exigencies of ten o'clock. The daytime com- missary of the street, spread on stands and hawked from baskets, also feeds the children more delicately than they were fed in their fathers' countries. Much is unwholesome, much is adulterated, but the food is unstintedly there, and plenty does not fail.^ I will quote yet another passage in which he asserts that the law of increasing returns is in operation and is to form the basis of this new civilization : Each gain upon nature adds to the quantity of goods to be consumed by society and lessens the labor necessary to pro- duce them. In one form the surplus is stored in individuals as surplus energy ; in another it is in the goods produced by this energy. Goods become utilities in consumption, utilities are transformed into energy, and energy as work creates new goods. The surplus is not conserved as a permanent fund, but exists and grows only as it is perpetually transformed from goods to energy and from energy back to goods. Life, work, and happiness are thus bound together and their measure is the surplus that vitalizes them. It relieves the present from the menace of a deficit which our forefathers constantly faced and feared. As a concept of our social thinking it differentiates the new from the old and helps to drive away the mists that 1 Patten, op. cit., pp. 22, 23. 34 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [378 blur dear thinking. But states of mind are hard to change, and in truth those we so long ago adopted seem to find ever fresh justification in the evils which remain to afflict men long after their inciting causes have disappeared, and in the old wounds of humanity it is easy to see new proofs of accus- tomed beliefs. The strongest arguments can be presented just as their foundations are crumbling to decay. We know that the military state is gradually being displaced by the industrial state, and yet there was never a time when the power and efficiency of armies were as great as now. They hold the na- tions in their power just when the disintegration of the forces beneath them is most apparent. And so it is with the evils more directly associated with the industrial world. The poverty, misery, exploitation, oppression of the poor ; the greed, indiiference, and power of the rich, are glaring truths evens while the basis of a new economic order becomes more and more plain. In the age of transition the old thought and the new world abide side by side. But if the foundations of our civilization have been changed, the altering status of men will take clearer aspects in each new age, and the old thought, while apparently verifying theold premises anew, will gradu- ally disappear — not because it is argued away, but because men's sentiments are changed by new activity and an accu- mulating store of fresh experiences.^ I have quoted these passages in order to show as accu- rately as possible the view Professor Patten advances, be- cause, it seems to me, it is quite characteristic of a large body of thinkers on social problems at the present time. This view is accepted by a large part of those who are engaged in social work. They need some basis for optimism, and they find it in a surplus of material goods. With this surplus to draw upon, and a still larger surplus to look forward to, they see no problem to-day but that of a more equal dis- ' Patten, op. cit, pp. 26, 27. 379] VIEWS OF SOME RECENT WRITERS 35 tribution. They see a solution of almost all social ills in an abundance of the physical necessities of life. They also hold that there is no danger of population expanding at such a rate that it will catch up with this surplus and ex- haust it. So it is that they see the complete refutation of Mai thus in the actual and prospective productiveness of modern industry. This chapter has already run to such length, that I shall not take up the positions of other writers in any detail. I shall merely quote a few short passages which will show the positions of these men as accurately as short quotations can do. It might seem, then, that Malthus was right in his premises ; and since the preventive considerations are proverbially weak in the poorer classes, it might be claimed that he was also justi- fied in his gloomy forebodings. This conclusion, however, does not follow. The real antithesis is proximately at least not between population and food, but between population and wealth, or productive efficiency. . . . Even granting this con- tention (the contention being that in time all arable land may be taken) however, and looking forward to the distant time when all the huge and now uncultivated areas of the earth's surface will be utilized for food production, it still remains true that the increase of wealth may for almost indefinite periods keep ahead of population. For, as was intimated in the last chapter, a really intensive capitalistic system of agri- cultural production has never yet been attempted on a large scale. If there is enough wealth to put into the soil, it can be transmuted into food. The diminishing returns from land can be arrested by the increasing returns of a rapidly augment- ing efficiency of industry in general. The food may indeed cost more, but there will be more wealth with which to buy it. Not only can wealth be made to increase faster, but, as we have seen, the increase of wealth will in itself set in motion those economic and sociological forces which tend to reduce 36 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [380 the rate of increase of population. Thus from both sides the antithesis of wealth and population may be weakened. Under favorable conditions population may increase gradually, and wealth rapidly.^ The doctrine of over-population has therefore lost its terrors for modern society. The stress has been shifted from food to wealth and efficiency.^ Professor Seligman looks to production to keep in abey- ance the law of diminishing returns, and to reformed distri- bution to make life easier for the lower classes, and to "eco- nomic and sociological " forces to automatically check the birth rate. In this latter statement he seems to admit that the birth rate might cause pressure of population on the food supply. On the whole, however, he does not think that Malthusianism has much interest for us at present. Dr. Pierson, after stating Malthus' doctrine as he under- stands it, concludes as follows : "Apart from the very last point, ... all this appears to us to be incontrovertable ".' , In general, Dr. Pierson may be said to hold to the doctrine.; of Malthus, although his chief emphasis is upon the relation of population and production. In this he differs from many modern economists, who look upon population and distri- bution as more closely associated than population and pro- duction. But Dr. Pierson holds that population does tend to increase faster than the means of production existing at any given time could provide for it, and so new means of production are necessary if population is to continue in- creasing at anything like its present rate. Many other writers might be reviewed and quoted, but such a proceeding would only serve to make one more cer- ^ Seligman, Principles of Economics (New York, 1914), pp. 64, 65. ' Ibid., p. 66. » Pierson, Principles of Economics, translated by A. A. Wotzel (Lon- don, 1902), vol. ii, p. 128. 381] VIEWS OF SOME RECENT WRITERS 37 tain that opinion is very much divided regarding the doc- trine of population. Some writers seem to believe in Mal- thusianism, but yet see no danger of over-population, be- cause they think the standard of living will sufficiently cur- tail numbers; others believe that as long as there is suffer- ing and a " submerged tenth," there is over-population, and would urge the moral restraints of Malthus; still others confidently expect that physiological changes will bring about a decreased rate of growth, and thus stop the work- ing of the Malthusian principle. But it is useless to enu- merate further the variations of belief regarding the doc- trine of Malthus, as most of them are illustrated in the earlier parts of this chapter. I have endeavored to refrain from criticism of the views set forth above, because, as was said at the beginning, the purpose of this chapter is to give a general idea of the presr- ent state of opinion on this question. Furthermore, I do not feel that I am ready to make criticisms at this stage of my study, and besides, the most effective criticism of other men's views is a constructive theory on the same subject. Such a theory I hope to set forth at some length in the later chapters of this study. CHAPTER III Wages and Prices A comparison of wages and prices in several countries will show as nothing else can how the working man is affected by the present high level of prices. Unfortunately, this comparison cannot be made in the thoroughgoing man- ner which would be desirable. There is not a great deal of material upon these subjects, and such as there is often does not lend itself readily to comparison. But in spite of this drawback it will be possible to make comparisons which will throw light upon the economic condition of the work- ing classes in several countries. The index number will be used to make these comparisons because of the ease of un- derstanding the results and the simplicity it allows in pre- sentation. There has been a great deal written upon the high cost of living and kindred subjects, but there has been very little effort made to ascertain definitely the relation between prices and wages, and in this way to arrive at some conclu- sions regarding the present condition of the working man. Often, too, the question has been discussed as though it were merely a national question. But a very hasty survey of the field shows that such is not the case. The rise in prices has been world-wide and the workmen of the world are affected by the changes which have taken place. It will be the purpose of this chapter to show as definitely as pos- sible the relations of wages and prices within the last tw,o decades. It is quite evident that the rise in prices is not a serious matter providing the means of paying this increased 38 [382 383] WAGES AND PRICES ^g price is increased in like or greater proportion. But the very fact that we hear so much about the high cost of living creates the presumption that a greater proportion of wages and salaries is going to provide the necessaries of life than was formerly the case. Many of the efiforts at social and economic reform at the present time are also directed, not so much to raising the general standard of life as to keeping up to present stand- ards the mode of life of the rapidly increasing populations of the great nations. This would seem to indicate a feel- ing on the part of social workers that wages are not in- creasing in proportion to the demands made upon the laborer by the increasing complexity of his life. As was suggested above, the study made in this chapter cannot tell us as definitely as we should desire what is actually the re- lation between wages and prices in recent years. It will, however, enable us to draw some general conclusions which will be of interest. WAGES AND PRICES IN THE UNITED STATES The Bureau of Labor Statistics of the Department of Labor has made some good studies of wages and prices in this country. These studies begin with the sixth and sev- enth annual reports, issued in 1890 and 1891. They were not of much value, however, until the publication of the eighteenth annual report on Cost of Lkmvg and Retail Prices of Food, in 1903. This investigation not only secured data on the cost of living, but also retail prices for 30 articles of food from 814 merchants for the years 1890- 1902 and from 811 merchants for the year 1903. These merchants were scattered over 33 States.^ The relative importance of each of these 30 articles of food was ob- 1 Eigfhteenth Annual Report of the Commissioner of Labor, p. 63S. 40 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [384 tained from the reported consumption of food in 2,567 families/ The index numbers were then calculated on the basis of these weighted averages. It appears, however, that weighting has very little influence on the index numbers, for the greatest difference between the simple and weighted index numbers during this period of 14 years is 0.6. For this reason the objections to this method of weighting the averages are of little moment.^ This study of retail prices was brought down to the end of 1907 in Bulletin yy of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The only changes in the studies introduced in this period were increases in the number of localities, states and mer- chants from which the data were secured.* The data in the Bulletins up to 1907 were comparable in all respects and were supposed to give the course of retail prices in a fairly accurate manner for the years 1890- 1907. This series of studies was discontinued in 1908 and was not resumed until 1912. When they were resumed they did not have the scope of those of earlier years. They were confined to 39 important industrial cities in 32 states, and were obtained from only 650 merchants. But the most significant change of all was the restriction of the inquiry to 15 articles of food instead of continuing the prices for the original 30. These 15 articles of food represent ap- proxima tely tw o^thiri^cj nf ihe. P-irppnHiV»r-<> fr.f fr.r.r| by the avera ge wo i^ingman^ family.* But it would be much more satisfactory iflKF'aata:' for 1908-1913 were for the same articles of food as those of the earlier studies. The two series of index numbers for the 30 articles of food and ^ Eighteenth Annual Report of the Commissioner of Labor, p. 654. » Ibid., p. 655, also Rubinow, " The Recent Trend of Real Wages," American Economic Review, Dec, 1914. ^ Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bulletin, no. 77, pp. 181 and 200. * Ibid., no. IDS, pt. i, pp. 5-7. 385] WAGES AND PRICES 41 that for the 15 articles can be compared up to 1907, when the former ceases. This comparison shows that they do not vary much until 1899. From this time on the index number for the 15 articles rises more rapidly than that for the 30 articles. In 1907 the difference is 5.3 (125.9 and 120.6 respectively).^ This would seem to indicate that the later retail prices were affected to a certain extent by the changes introduced in the method of securing them. But granting that this is the case, and at the same time making use of the weighted index numbers for the 15 articles of food which are somewhat lower than the unweighted index numbers, still there can be no doubt that prices have risen very rapidly since 1899. In 1899 the index number was 100.8, in 1913 it was 163.4, a rise of 62.6, which is ap- proximately 62 per cent. This rise may be somewhat ex- cessive, but the index numbers could be scaled downwards several points and still they would indicate a very rapid rise in the price of foodstuffs. "" — 'Studies of retail prices standing by themselves are of little value. Realizing this, the Bureau of Labor issued as its nineteenth annual report a study of Wages and Hours of Lobor. This report covered the wages in 67 industries, 519 occupations and 3,475 establishments.^ Here again the question of weighting came up, and the Bureau calculated four sets of index numbers for wages per hour.^ 1. Industries weighted according to aggregate wages paid in each industry as reported by the census of 1900. 2. Simple average of all occupations. 3. Simple average of all industries. ^ Rubinow, loc. cit. ' Bureau of Labor, Nineteenth Annual Report, p. 11, also Rubinow, loc. cit. ' Ihid., p. 23, also Rubinow, loc. cit. 42 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [386 4. Industries weighted according to number of employees in each industry as reported by census of 1900. As in the case of the index numbers of retail prices, this weighting seems to make little difference in the index num- bers. The difference is less than i.o in all years except the last (1903). In this year it was 1.7.^ Index numbers were also calculated at this time for the full-time weekly earn- ings per employee. The work on wages begun in this re- port was brought up to the close of 1907 in Bulletin yy, but the number of industries studied was reduced to 41 and the number of occupations to 333. In this publication the purchasing power of wages in terms of foodstuffs was also calculated. These index numbers of the purchasing power of wages showed that real wages were higher in 1907 than the average for the ten-year period 1890-99.^ When this curve is smoothed by the use of live-year averages it appears that there was a slight fall in the purchasing power of wages f rom 19 00 to^i907, althougH~tliisrian' was riot continuous, the index numbers for the years 1903-7 being practically the same.^ After Bulletin yy, which was issued in July, 1908, no more studies of wages were issued until 191 3. Some very detailed studies have since been published, but unfortunately they are not a direct continuation of the earlier studies. The earlier studies covered the data in 41 industries, as mentioned above, the later ones had covered only 16 of the same industries in June, 19 14. The earlier wage data were taken from the payrolls of the employers of both union and non-union labor, while the later data were taken from the union scales of wages and hours. The number of occu- pations in the various industries was also different in the 1 Bureau of Labor, Bulletin, no. 77, p. 7. ' Rubinow, loc. cit. 387] WAGES AND PRICES 43 two series of studies. These differences make a compar- ison of the two series difficult but not impossible, for, as Rubinow points out, there are data in the later series on 16 industries covering 241 occupations, of which 141 are identical with those of the earlier series. In most of these cases, however, the Bureau has made no effort to compute the index numbers of wages for the years 1908-13 on the basis of the ten-year average 1890-99 as was done in the earlier studies, nor has it attempted to measure wages in terms of prices in this later series. It is evident, however, that if the data on wages obtained from the two series are at all comparable, a computation of wages in terms of prices can be made, for we saw above that a fairly accurate series of index numbers for prices was available for the years 1890-1912. Rubinow has checked up the actual wage data as given in the two series of studies for the year 1907, and he believes that the facts are really continuous as far as they go, even though they were not collected in the same manner.^ My own checking-up of data for 1907 from the two series of studies confirms Rubinow's conclusion in this respect. A continuous series of index numbers for wages for 16 industries, including 141 occupations, can therefore be made for the years 1890-1912. To do this, however, it is necessary to calculate the weekly wages from the wages per hour and the hours per week, as this has not been done in most of the Bulletins. Rubinow has done this. The results are given in Table I. The chief objections which may be made to drawing any reliable conclusions from Table I are : I. That the index numbers for prices of articles of food are not representative of prices for all articles consumed by the workingman's family, and that therefore to measure 1 Supra, p. 39, also Rubinow, loc. cit. 44 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [388 wages by prices of articles of food does not give a correct idea of the relation of prices and wages. Rubinow points out that the investigation of the Bureau of Labor in 1903 showed that slightly over 43 per cent of the total ex- penditures of the working ma n's' tamiTy'was for food, and that five years later Chapin's study oTTTie Standard of Living in New York City showed the same percentage of the income spent for food (43.5 per cen^- This indi- cates that other articles for which -the laBorer was spending his income must have risen in price to approximately the same degree as foodstuffs, for otherwise we would find a greater prooprtion of the income being spent for food in the later study. 2. That the index numbers for prices are not strictly comparable for the period of 23 years, because of the changes introduced in the methods of collecting and tab- ulating the data. It was shown above, however, that the degree of probable error is not so great but that we are justified in drawing some general conclusions from the index numbers based upon them. 3. That the wage data are drawn from different sources — employers' payrolls and union scales — and therefore do not give us a series comparable throughout. This objection has been answered above. 4. That average wages will not tell us the real condition of industrial workers. It is true that average wages will not tell us the exact conditions of a particular industry about which we should like to know details. But the aver- age wages paid in a given industry for a period of years should tell us whether wages, as a- whole, are rising or falling in this industry. This should also be true of the average wages for a number of industries for a period of years. The following table is taken from Rubinow's ar- ticle : 389] WAGES AND PRICES 45 Table I. — Computation of Index of Real Wages, 1890-1912. Ye«r. Hours per Wages per week. hour. 1890 lOI.I 1891 100.9 1892 100.7 1893 100.4 1894 99.2 1895 99-8 1896 99.7 1897 995 1898 99.6 1899 99-2 1900 98.6 1901 g8.i 1902 974 1903 96.7 1904 96.0 1905 96.0 1906 95.4 1907 951 1908 94-5 1909 94-4 1910 93-8 1911 93-3 1912 93-0 100.2 99-9 100.3 101.2 98.9 98.6 lOO.O 99.6 100.2 101 .4 104.7 107.0 1 12.0 "S-S 1 16.3 1 19.6 123.6 129.3 I28.S 129.9 134-0 1363 141-5 Full time weekly earnings per employee. IOI.3 100.8 lOI.O I0I.6 98.1 99-2 99-7 99-1 99-8 100.6 103.2 105.0 109. 1 111.7 111.6 1 14-8 1 17.9 123.0 121.4 122.6 I2S-7 127.2 131-6 Retail prices oi food. IOI.9 103.4 IOI.6 104. 1 99.2 97-1 95-2 96.7 99-7 100.8 103.0 108.S 1 1 4.6 114.7 1 16.2 116.4 120.3 I2S-9 130-I 137-2 144.1 143.0 IS4-2 Regarding this table, Rubinow says : Purchasing power measured by retail prices of food. Hourly wages. 98.3 96.6 98-7 97.2 99-7 101.5 105.0 103.0 100.S 100.6 101.6 98.6 97-7 100.7 lOO.O 102.8 102.7 102.7 98.8 94-7 93-0 9S-3 91-8 Weekly earnings. 99-41 97-S 99-4 97-6 98.9 102.2 104.7 102.^ loo.i 99-8 100.2 96.8 94-3 97.3 96.0 98.6 98.0 97-7 93-0 89-4 87-2 88.9 85-3 In brief, the salient features of the results of the economic development during the last five years, as they appear in the preceding table, may be summarized thus, as far as the figures combined and computed here may be relied upon : (i) From 1907 to 1912, the wages per hour rose from 129.3 to 141. 5, 12.2 points on the recognized scale or 9.4 per cent. (2) During the same time the hours of labor declined from 95.1 to 93.0, 2.1 points or 2.2 per cent. (3) The weekly earnings increased from 123.0 to 131.6, only 8.6 points or 7 per cent. 46 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [390 (4) The retail prices of food increased from 125.9 to 154.2, 28.3 points or 22.5 per cent. (5) The purchasing power of an hour's wages (as expressed in cost of food) decreased from 102.7 to 91.8, 10.9 points or 10.6 per cent. (6) The purchasing power of weekly wages, or the true weekly wages, have decreased still faster, from 97.7 to 85.3, 12.4 points or 12.7 per cent. As Rubinow is very careful to point out, these con- clusions must not be accepted as absolutely accurate. The chief limitations upon them have been pointed out above. The conclusion, which does seem to be fully justified, is that within the last few years real wages have actually fallen. If this is the case, then the American workingman is finding it increasingly difficult to keep up his standard of living. WAGES AND PRICES IN THE UNITED KINGDOM The Board of Trade for the United Kingdom has com- piled a series of index numbers of wages and prices. The series of wholesale prices extends over a longer period than that of retail prices, which begins in 1895. The wage sta- tistics also extend over a longer period than the retail prices. The index numbers from 1890 tO' 1912, as far as they are available, will be given here. Table II summarizes the data for this comparison. It will be seen from a study of this table that what was true of the United States is true in less degree of the United Kingdom. It must be borne in mind that a different base ds used for the two sets of index numbers, and therefore they cannot be compared. The comparison of nation with nation is relatively unimportant, inasmuch as there are so many factors complicating this situation that it is impos- sible to draw any conclusions from such a comparison. 391] WAGES AND PRICES 47 Table II :— Relative Wages and Prices in the United Kingdom (The year 1900 equals loo.o in all cases) Wholesale prices of ' Retail" Hooker's forty-five twenty-one prices Wages' index Year commodities articles of Five Four number General of food food industries =* industries * of wages* 1890 104.0 109.S 90.26 go.08 90.2 1891 107.4 117.0 9I.S4 91.13 91.4 1892 IOI.8 1 10.9 90.06 89.27 89.9 1893 100.0 109.7 90.13 89.50 90.0 1894 94.2 102.9 89.49 88.69 89.4 189s 91.0 99-S 93-2 89.11 88.23 89.1 1896 88.2 93.3 92.0 89.92 89.24 89.8 1897 90.1 97-4 96.2 90.80 90.05 90.8 1898 93.2 102.3 100.8 93.20 92.64 93.1, 1899 92.3 98.1 96.4 95-37 95-06 95.3 1900 loo.o loo.o loo.o 100.00 100.00 lOO.O 1901 96.9 100.4 IOI.9 99.07 98.56 99.0 1902 96-5 IOI-7 IOI.6 97.78 96.96 97.8 1903 96-9 100.7 103.2 97.20 96.21 97.1 1904 98-3 101.4 104.3 96-67 95-56 96.7 1905 97-6 101.2 103.7 97-03 95-94 96-9 1906 100.4 100.5 103.2 98.42 97.60 98.3 1907 ----- 105.7 los.i 105.8 101.77 101.79 101.6 1908 102.8 106.6 108.4 101.23 100.97 loi.o 1909 104.0 108.7 108.2 99.98 99.41 lOO.O 1910 108.8 109.1 109.9 100.21 99.70 lOO.I 191 1 109-3 109-3 1912 115.0 114.9 * The wholesale and retail prices are compiled from the Report to Parliament on Wholesale and Retail Prices and from later information received in the department of labor. No study of retail prices was made prior to 1895. ' Fourteenth Abstract of Labor Statistics of the United Kingdom, p. 68. ' These five industries are building, coal mining, engineering, textile and agriculture. ■* These are the same as the five above except that agriculture is omitted. • Hooker, R. H., " The Course of Prices at Home and Abroad." Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Dec, 191 1. The base has been changed in order to make Hooker's index numbers comparable with those of the Board of Trade. 48 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [392 Here, too, we find that wages^re not keeping pace with price&,-especiall^^.ce_i2po. Wages from 1907- 19 12 were almost exactly what they were in 1900, while foodstufifs, whether we consider wholesale or retail prices, have ad- vanced about 9 per cent. Mr. Hooker ^ does not consider the wage statistics of the Board of Trade as representative as those of the Bureau of Labor prior to 1907. But they include data regarding the wage-workers in five great in- dustries, and so represent with more or less accuracy the general course of wages. If we express the wages in terms of retail prices we get the results in columns i and 2 of Table III. Here we find that the purchasing power of wages in terms of food has fallen about 9 per cent since 1900. The difference of purchasing power of wages in the four-industry group and the five-industry group is negli- gible, although it is generally a little higher in the five- industry group. This is of greater significance when we consider that the wage-workers in the four-industry group are better able to organize and demand increased wages than the agricultural laborers who are included in the five- industry group. The years 1905-6-7 show a rise in pur- chasing power, while following the depression of 1907 we find that the purchasing power of wages has fallen. The trend of real wages in England runs parallel with that of the United States. Unfortunately, the Board of Trade has not yet published the index numbers for wages, which would enable us to see just how wages have changed in 191 1 and 1912. The re- sult is that we cannot tell just how much the rise in prices has exceeded the rise in wages, but that it has done so there is little reason to doubt. In speaking of the rise of wages in 191 1 and 1912, the Labour Gazette says: "The upward ' Jour, of the Roy. Stat. Soc, loc. cit. 393] WAGES AND PRICES 40 Table III. — The Relative Purchasing Power of Wages ^ in the United Kingdom (The year igoo equals loo.o in all cases) Purchasing power of wages in terms Purchasing power of wages Year °' retail prices using Board in five industries in terms of Trade figures throughout of the wholesale prices of Five industries Four industries twenty-one articles of food 1890 82.4 1891 78.2 1892 81.2 1893 82.1 1894 2 2 86.g 189s 95-6 94-6 88.5 1896 97.7 97.0 96.3 1897 94-3 93-6 93-2 1898 92.4 91.9 91.1 1899 98.9 98.6 97.2 1900 lOO.O lOO.O lOO.O 1901 97-2 96.7 98.6 1902 96.2 95.4 96.1 1903 94-1 93.2 96.S 1904 92.6 91.7 95-3 190s 93-5 92s 9S-8 1906 95-3 945 97-9 1907 96.1 96.2 96.8 1908 93-3 93-1 94-9 1909 92.4 91.8 91.9 1910 91.1 90.7 91.8 movement in wages, which was not very marked in 191 1 — except in the case of railwaymen, seamen, and other trans- portation workers — continued to be only slight in the first three months of 1912, but became more pronounced in the period April-December." ^ The strike of the coal miners is accountable for the greater part of the actual increase. ' These are calculated by dividing the index number for wages of the given year by the index number for prices in the same year. ' No study of retail prices was made by the Board of Trade prior to 1895. ' Board of Trade, Labour Gazette, Jan., 1913, p. 3. 50 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [394. We may reasonably conclude, then, that wages in the United Kingdom are not advancing as rapidly as prices. The laborer is not able to offset the higher price he pays for commodities by a larger wage. He is rather forced to contract the amount of his purchases. It must be borne in mind, too, that in the United Kingdom, as in the United States, the wage statistics available for the most complete comparison relate to the trades unions. It is a perfectly legitimate conclusion, then, that the condition of the wage- worker in the United Kingdom has not been growing better since 1900. WAGES AND PRICES IN FRANCE For France we do not have as good data as for the United States and the United Kingdom. But data gath- ered from different sources are consistent in showing that the rise of wages in France has kept ahead of the rise in prices of foodstuffs (see Table IV). This is true both for retail and wholesale prices. The course of wages in France does not show the fluctuations which we find in the United States and the United Kingdom. The French workingman seems to have been able to command a steady advance in wages which would enable him to raise his standard of living. The course of wages indicated by the inquiry into Saiaires et Cout de L' Existence (column 4) is probably more accurate than that which I have worked out, because it is more representative of industry in general. The min- ing industry as a whole is the predominant factor in the latter, and it is quite likely that the organization of these men would enable them to keep their wages somewhat ahead of the general level. But it is worthy of note that most of the rise in prices which has taken place since 1890 has taken place since 1907, and since that time wages have not risen as rapidly as 395] WAGES AND PRICES e,i Table IV. — Relative Wages and Prices in France (1890=100.0) Retail prices of food Wholesale Wages Yeai March ' Normal ' prices of Silaires et coflt Thompson* food* de Texistence' 1890 lOO.O lOO.O lOO.O lOO.O lOO.O 1891 103.1 103.9 940 loo.o 100.9 1892 I03.I 102.9 89.7 100.0 102.6 1893 104.7 970 87.1 loo.o 100.6 1894 98.7 102.9 83.7 loo.o 99.3 1895 91.8 100.9 80.3 104.2 102.9 1896 8s.2 98.0 80.3 104.2 103.8 1897 88.7 95-0 83.7 104.2 105.4 1898 92.S loo.o 84.6 104.2 105.7 1899 89.6 IOI.9 83.7 104.2 107.5 1900 90.S 97.0 87.1 IO8.S III.2 1901 91.6 97-0 91.4 108.5 113.0 1902 8g.6 99.0 91.4 108.5 iii-6 1903 90-5 100.9 90.5 106.S 1 12.2 1904 . .. 90.0 100.9 84.6 108.S 113.0 1905 97-1 105.9 87.1 113.8 114.4 1906 94.3 105.9 93-1 1 13.8 1 16.0 1907 99-2 110.9 98.2 113.8 122.0 1908 104.4 112.8 104.2 113.8 126.9 1909 105.4 107.9 104.2 113.8 128.1 1910 109.9 II2-8 104.2 117.0 130.6 ' March, M. Lucien, Bull, de I'institut inter, de stat, vol. xix, pt. iii, pp. 222-3. ' Quoted by Hooker, loc. cit., from the recent French inquiry into Salaires et cout de I'existence. The index numbers are given as aver- ages for five year periods from 1890-1910 and in order to fill up the table I have given the same number for five consecutive years. « Hooker, Jour, of Roy. Stat. Soc, loc. cit. * This series of index numbers was obtained by working out an index number for each of five industries from the average wages given for them in the Abstract of Foreign Labor Statistics issued by the Board of Trade and then combining these into a compound unweighted index number. The five industries are, coal mining both surface and under- ground, iron mining surface and underground and beet sugar. The wages for the years 1908-10 were taken directly from Statistique de I'industrie minerale en France, 191 1. About 215,000 men are employed in these industries. 52 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [395 prices. It is due to the continuous rise in wages from 1890 until 1907 that the French laborer is not in the same posi- tion as the English and American laborer. But in spite of this the French laborer is feeling the increased pressure, as the inquiry into the cost of living shows. If we express wages in terms of the "normal" retail price (making 1890 equal to loo.o), we find that a maximum purchasing power was reached in 1900 and 1901, when it was 11 1.8. Then it gradually fell until it was only 100.8 in 1908. It rose a little in 1909 and fell to 103.7 ^^ 191O) which is several points below what it was previous to 1907. This would seem to indicate that within the last five or six years real wages have been falling slightly in France, although not so rapidly as in England and America. PRICES IN OTHER COUNTRIES Below will be found index numbers for prices in several other countries. These index numbers show that in most cases prices have risen quite rapidly since 1900, and are higher at the latest date at which they are available than in 1907 (the exceptions to this statement are Schmitz's whole- sale prices for Germany and the index number for Japan for 1909). Although index numbers for wages in these countries are not given here, it is well worth noting that prices have been rising steadily since 1907, while it is a generally recognized fact that business has been rather dull in most of the great industrial countries since that time. Is it not worth considering whether the situation presum- ably existing in each of those countries for which wages are given is not also existing in these other countries for which index numbers for wages have not been given ? The only certain conclusion to be drawn from these data, how- ever, is that prices have been steadily rising throughout the civilized world since 1900, and one may add that real wages 397] WAGES AND PRICES 53 have been falling somewhat at least since 1907, and prob- ably since 1900, in those countries for which data are given. Table V. — Relative Prices in Germany (The year 1895 equals 100.0)1 Year Wholesale' Retail'* Board Wholesale' Retail* Hooker of Trade Schmitz Bavaria 189s lOO.O lOO.O 100.0 lOO.O 1896 93.6 97.9 100.4 98.3 1897 98.9 loi.o 102.6 99.8 I^ I08.S 103.0 I08.S 103.7 1899 106.3 loi.o 117.8 101.9 1900 I08.S 102.0 127.4 IOI.3 1901 109.5 103.0 119.8 I0I.8 1902 107.4 los.i 1 18.5 104.6 1903 1 14-9 104.1 120.S 104.3 1904 1 14.9 103.0 1 19.8 105.7 1905 120.2 1 10.2 123.9 112.1 1906 122.3 116.3 134.1 ii6-2 1907 128.7 1 18.3 143.0 1 15.2 1908 120.2 I2I.4 135.1 II7.3 1909 132.9 1224 133.5 122.9 I9I0 I36.I 136.0 127.3 1 These index numbers all have different bases in the sources from which they are taken but have been reduced to a common base for purposes of comparison. ' Hooker, loc. cit. These numbers refer to prices of food-stuffs only. ' Ibid. These numbers refer to all commodities. * This series of numbers was computed by Dr. Fr. Zahn, Director of the Bavarian Statistical Office, Bull, de I'institut inter, de stat., vol. xix, pt. iii, pp. 126-31. These numbers are computed on the basis of the percentage which each of 19 articles of food formed of the total ex- penditure for food in the lower middle class families of Germany. 54 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [398 Table VI.— Relative Prices of Foodstuffs in Various Countries ^ (The year 1900 is used as the base in all cases) Year ^rgt^ Neti,erUnds» "S™"^."' Upsn- 1890 los.i 107.6 564 1891 1 10.2 107.4 S3-I 1892 102.S 100.2 S3.I 1893 101.2 102.0 102.7 54-3 1894 loo-o 98.9 94-9 59-2 189s 102.5 loo-o 93-7 62.S 1896 97.4 95-9 86.9 70.0 1897 loo.o 97.9 86.S 87.7 1898 106.4 ^-9 93-9 100.0 1899 100.0 98.9 96.5 904 1900 loo.o loo.o loo.o 100.0 1901 loo.o loi.o 103.5 I0I-3 1902 103.8 loi.o 107.5 102.0 1903 107.7 102.0 106.7 111.5 1904 1 12.8 103.0 107.8 1 17.0 1905 121.8 loi.o 110.3 119.0 1906 120.5 102.0 1 15.0 122.4 1907 125.6 los.i 125.7 128.5 1908 128.2 109.2 125.2 130.6 1909 137.1 110.2 130.7 122.4 1910 II5-3 1911 II7-3 • These index numbers are all taken from the Bull, de I'insiitut in- ternat. de stat., vol. xix, pt. iii. The base is changed in every case in order to make them more comparable. ' By Dr. Bela Von Jankovich, vice-president of the Hungarian House of Representatives. They are a combination of wholesale and retail prices of 19 articles of food. " By H. W. Methorst, Director of the Central Bureau of Statistics of the Netherlands. These numbers are based upon 29 articles of retail trade all but three of which are articles of food. No prices are given prior to 1893. " By R. H. Coates, associate editor of the Labour Gazette. These are wholesale prices. ^ By M. N. Hanabusa, Director of the Bureau of General Statistics. These numbers are based on wholesale prices and are for the 4 chief articles of food: rice, barley, legumes and sake. CHAPTER IV Cereal, Pulse and Root Crops The aim of this chapter is to determine as accurately as possible the rate of increase of the cereal, pulse and root crops which form the staples of diet of the peoples of the western world. The effort has been, therefore, to take account of these crops in those countries which contribute to the food supply of the western world. It has been im- possible, however, to take into account all of these countries because of the total lack of data relating to some of them, but those countries of greatest importance to the inquiry have data which are more or less reliable. In regard to the tables which follow, it is necessary to •make some general explanations. The form in which they appear would give the impression that the data from which they were compiled relate to the exact year which heads the column in which they are found. But in some cases the data which are given under a definite year., e. g. 1890, really relate to the years 1888, 1889, 1891 or 1892. This has not been indicated in specific cases, because the purpose of these tables is not to give the accurate statistics for a given year, but to ascertain the trend of production for each country considered. For this reason, also, if the production for any given year either fell much below or rose much above that of the years immediately preceding or immediately following, the figures have been altered so that the result would indicate the average yield for a period of years. In a few cases where data were lacking for a given period, but 399] SS 56 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [400 were available on both sides of this period, the data for the year in question have been estimated on the basis of the trend indicated by the data at hand. In examining these tables, therefore, and comparing them with official data, some inaccuracies will be found. But, as said above, I am aware of these inaccuracies, and in most cases have pur- posely introduced them in order to have the result show the tendency towards increase or decrease which is taking place. For this reason I feel, after a careful comparison of these tables with the official statistics which are before me, that these tables are much more indicative of the changes which are taking place in the production of these articles of food than the more accurate statistics of the given years. But, after all, the number of changes which have been made is not large, and consists chiefly of a slight shifting backward or forward of data so as to make the number of points (in time) at which they are taken few enough to be handled easily, while keeping enough of them to enable comparisons of value to be made. To indicate in this place every inaccuracy of this sort has been deemed unnecessary, inasmuch as a detailed explanation of all changes will be found in Appendix A. A statement of sources will be in place here in order to make unnecessary many specific references. The data for the United States are taken from the census reports and from the reports of the Department of Agriculture. The data for all the other countries are taken from the sta- tistical abstracts of Great Britain, these three series being used: (i) Statistical Abstract for the United Kingdom, (2) Statistical Abstract for the Principal and Other Foreign Countries, (3) Statistical Abstract for the Colonies and Self -Governing Possessions of the British Empire. These Abstracts are compiled from the official sources of the vari- ous countries to which they relate, and render available 40l] CEREAL, PULSE AND ROOT CROPS 57 many data which would otherwise be closed tO' one who reads but a few languages. In looking over these tables it will be noticed that the data for some of the countries do not begin before 1900, and that those for some of the other countries do not com- mence with 1870 or i860, as may be the case with most oi the figures in that table. In making use of the percentages in the totals it must be borne in mind that the addition of the data in a given year for certain of these countries has a material effect in increasing the percentage gains recorded. Another factor which enters in to make the percentage in- crease larger than it should be is the fact that the returns are more complete year by year. It should be noted, too, that most of the substantial gains in production have been made in the countries where new land has been easily available for cultivation. The older of the European countries do not show any very substantial gains, and in many cases there are losses in amount pro- duced as well as in the number of acres under the given crops. The production per acre does not seem to increase so rapidly as one might suppose would be the case (see Table VIII, Appendix C). A very casual inspection of the tables will convince anyone that no epoch-making discov- eries for increasing the yield per acre have been made within the period covered by these tables. Those who are very sanguine about the great increase in acreage production which the future will bring forth, can find little comfort in the tale told in these tables. The real gains have been made in bringing more acres under cultivation. No nation, however small, shows any large and consistent gain in the acreage production of the staple crops of cereals. This is not to say that some land is not producing better crops than formerly, but it is to say that at present the better methods of cultivation and fertilization are almost entirely offset by 58 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [402 the bringing into cultivation of poorer grades of land which yield returns only because of the economies due to modem machinery. The total production of cereal crops as given in the fol- lowing tables is : Cwts. Percentage increase. 1910 6,817,998,000 26.1 1900 5,402,645,000 21.5 1890 4,443,897,000 30.5 1880 3,404,065,000 42.6 1870 1 2,385,829,000 These tables are given as the best data available on the production of these crops. I am conscious of the limi- tations to their exactness. Some of these limitations I have already pointed out, others will occur to the reader at once and are so obvious that they need not be mentioned here. The tables and their limitations will be discussed more fully in a later chapter, when the crops are studied in con- nection with other data. The full tables of acreage and production, with the per- centages of increase or decrease, will be found in Appen- dix C. Only the percentages of increase or decrease in the production of cereals, pulse and potatoes for the chief coun- tries of the western world will be given in the text. Table VII. — Percentage of Increase or Decrease in the Productiow OF Cereals Pxilse and Potatoes. 1860-1910. Country 1910 1900 1890 1880 1870 i86a United States — Wheat 3.8 40.6 1.9 59.6 66.2 Maize 22.8 — 1.6 37.4 58.5 ! Oats 26.5 5.9 20.4 128.6 Barley 136.3 —6.3 944 53-2 Rye and spelt 23.2 — 15.6 16.1 33.9 Pulse 53.5 27.8 3.2 18.7 Potatoes 44.8 21. 1 28.8 403J CEREAL, PULSE AND ROOT CROPS 59 Table VII. — Percentage of Increase or Decrease in the Production] OF Cereals Pulse and Potatoes. — Continued 1860-1910 Country 1910 1900 1890 1880 1870 i860 United Kingdom — Wheat 4.1 — 28.S Maize Oats 6.4 — 3.5 — 0.8 1.6 Barley — 8.0 — 15.1 Rye and spelt Pulse 10.3 — 36.S — 14.8 — 21.4 Potatoes 15.0 — 1.6 2.9 3.5 Russia in Europe — Wheat 106.3 27.3 38.4 S-i Maize 13.1 150.7 26.1 Oaits 21.4 21.2 8.7 — 4.2 Barley 120.5 0.6 46.3 — 3.3 Rye and spelt —5.8 9.7 28.5 1.4 'Pulse 39.1 43.2 — 36.9 — 12.4 Potatoes 93.2 48.4 23.5 17.7 Germany — Wheat 0.5 35.6 20.7 Maize Oats 11.4 44-3 16.2 Barley .—3.3 31.4 6.4 Rye and spelt 20.8 41.7 16.8 Pulse Potatoes 23.4 15.8 72.1 France — Wheat 4.7 —1.8 16.2 19.9 Maize — 8.7 — 16.0 — 19.5 7.5 Oats 16.0 5.6 10.2 25.1 Barley 6.4 — 16.1 — 10.7 2.6 Rye and spelt — 11.7 — 13.5 — 8.4 27.0 Pulse 12.7 —4.5 —1.5 —0.7 Potatoes 1 18.4 7.5 10.8 45-6 Italy- Wheat 3.1 I.I —8.9 1.7 Maize ,. . 28.8 — 5.9 —15.6 —0.7 Oats 32.9 0.9 —0.2 —4.7 Barley 13.8 —32.1 —40.4 —3-8 Rye and spelt 21. i — 9.7 Pulse 56.5 —17-3 —23-8 2.5 Potatoes 8.5 —6.5 6.6 15.5 6o POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [404 Table VII. — Percentage of Increase or Decrease in the Productioh OF Cereals Pulse and Potatoes. — Concluded 1860-1910 Country 1910 1900 1890 1880 1870 i86q Austria — Wheat 39.3 Maize 23.2 Oats 20.4 Barley — 7.2 Rye and spelt 99.0 Pulse —6.6 Potatoes 35.6 Hungary — Wheat 6.0 Maize , 29.7 Oats — S.S Barley — 8.1 Rye and spelt 7.6 Pulse 67.4 Potatoes si.o —5-0 8.5 —1.7 —19-5 13.S 5-7 0.8 12.3 16.4 28.S 7-7 2.0 —30.1 25.8 — 20.2 147 — 11.8 15.6 16.7 42.6 17.0 3-2 86.6 62.2 53.9 -7.8 22.5 32.6 —13.5 177-7 2.4 3-9 6.5 —14.4 45-4 152.5 49-2 13-3 82.1 40.1 164.3 CHAPTER V Animals on Farms The sources of the statistics in this chapter are the same as those of the tables in the preceding chapter and need not be repeated here.^ There is reason to believe that statistics on number of animals are a little more accurate than those on production. Of course, there are errors, but those of much moment are obvious, such as the increase of cattle in India, 1 900-1 910, which is probably due for the most part to more complete returns, and those for Chile, which sug- gest that the earlier enumeration was too high. But the errors are quite likely to be compensating, sO' that the re- sults will be fairly accurate. Just a word about those for the United States. Inasmuch as the last census enumera- tion was made at a different time of year than the former enumerations, it was necessary to exclude the number of calves from the number of cattle, but this has been done for all the years, and therefore the figures given here are comparable. The fact that only animaI§JiepL,QlLlaxmsu.are, included in the^etums of most countries brings it about that some animals keprin~towtiiaineranitte3". But since this number is not large (except in the case of horses) and is decreasing in most civilized countries, it is not likely that the results are much affected. If the results are affected in any ap- 1 Detailed explanation of changes in date and number in the tables of this chapter will be found in Appendix A. 40s] 61 62 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [406 preciable degree, the tendency would be to raise the per- centages found on the farms in recent years. It should be noted that the total numbers and percent- ages of cattle for the years 19 10, 1900 and 1890 are raised greatly by the numbers of cattle in India. It is scarcely probable that the percentages of increase of cattle in India are as great as given here. Besides, the cattle of India are not yet a factor in the meat supply of the outside world. For we do not find cattle or meat among the exports of foodstuffs from India. If we subtract the increase due to India alone from the total increase of cattle between 1900 and 1910, we find that the percentage of increase is reduced from 15.0 to 4.5, which much more nearly represents the increase in the available supply of cattle than does the 15.0 per cent. Thus, in spite of the advent of a number of coun- tries to the ranks of the meat-producers of the western world in the last thirty years, we find that at present the available supply of meat, as represented by the number of cattle raised, is increasing but slowly. Countries such as Canada, Russia in Asia, New Zealand, Australia, and Ar- gentina are now increasing their numbers of cattle rapidly. They seem to be at the stage of development where the United States was thirty or forty years ago. There are large areas of grass lands, on which cattle live and multiply without much attention and care from man. As these countries become more settled and agriculture claims the land, we may expect to see the number of cattle remain almost stationary, as has been the case in the United States for the last twenty years, or it may even decrease as in Russia in Europe in the last ten years. There can be little doubt that at present the farmers are finding it more profitable to raise grain and sell it than to raise cattle. The price of all kinds of cereals has been at a high level in recent years, and has encouraged a vast ex- 407] ANIMALS ON FARMS 63 tension of its cultivation, as we saw in the preceding chap- ter, and this extension of the cultivation of grain has crowded out the cattle. The index numbers for prices of beef in 19 10, in the various countries for which they are available, show from 25 to 60 per cent increase on the base 1890-99 (France being the only important exception), and most of this has taken place since 1900.^ And still cattle are not raised in sufificient numbers to satisfy the growing demand for meat in any of the great industrial nations. Almost daily one sees notices of shipments of meat from Canada, Australia or Argentina to the United States and the industrial countries of Europe. If we examine the increase of sheep, as shown in this table, we find that some of the more undeveloped countries show substantial gains in numbers for all the periods for which we have data. But when we turn to the more de- veloped countries, and especially those given to industry, we find only small gains, and in many cases actual decreases. Russia in Europe, which has made remarkable progress in the production of cereals in recent years, has had a large decrease in number of sheep, much larger than in cattle. The total percentage increase of sheep according to this table is 4.2 per cent, which is almost exactly that of cattle after we subtracted the gain credited to India between 1900- 1910. There can be no doubt that the same argument ap- plies to the growth of sheep as to that of cattle. In new countries where there is an abundance of pasturage, sheep thrive and increase rapidly in numbers, but when a nation needs the land for grain, sheep must go as cattle must go. This is a consequence we would be led to expect from a knowledge of the conditions under which cattle and sheep thrive. The statistics in this table support this conclusion. 1 Hooker, Jour, of the Roy. Stat. Soc, loc. cit. 64 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [408 A study of them in connection with those in chapter four shows that in those countries where there has been a great development in number of acres under cereals, there has been either a slow growth in numbers of cattle and sheep or even-a-dgcreaseT ~~' """ '""^ As said above, we would naturally expect this to be the case with cattle and sheep, but would we expect that swine, whose conditions of living are so different from those of cattle and sheep, would show a very slow rate of increase? One might possibly argue that the decrease in numbers of cattle and sheep was only a temporary phenomenon, due to the disturbance in the natural conditions of their growth and only indicated a lack of adjustment for the time being, although the situation in the older countries does not war- rant such a view. But even this argument would not apply to the case of swine. They never grew wild in very great numbers nor grew to great numbers, with little care from man, on the vast open prairies. Swine need care and food furnished them, and we might expect that the great increase in cereals which we saw was taking place would lead to a raising of more swine. But Table VIII shows that swine have not increased as rapidly as either sheep or cattle in the period 1900-1910. If we glance at the index numbers for prices of pork, we see that it has increased, up to 1910, 25 to 97 per cent on the base of 1890-99. Most of this increase has taken place since 1900. France again is an exception, although the price of pork has increased there faster than the price of beef.' There can be but one conclusion regarding the increase in numbers of animals furnishing the meat supply of the western world. This conclusion is that the rate of increase is slow and that as compared with the rate of increase of • Hooker, loc. cit. 409] ANIMALS ON FARMS 6^ grains it is much slower than one would have been led to expect. The conclusion that some of the increase in agri- cultural products which has hithertO' gone to feed cattle, sheep and swine is now going directly to feed men, seems almost inevitable. This will be discussed more fully, how- ever, in a later chapter, in connection with the growth of population. Table VIII. — ^Animals on Farms, 1860-1910 (Expressed in thousands) Country 1910 1900 1890 1880 1870 i860 United States — Cattle 53,997 52,404 51,364 35,926 23,821 2S,62q % increase 3.0 2.0 43.0 50.8 — 10.9 44.1 Sheep 39.644 39,853 35,935 35,192 28,478 22,471 % increase —0.5 10.9 2.1 23.6 26.7 3.4 Swine i 58,186 62,853 57.4IO 47,682 25,135 33,513 % increase , —7.4 9-5 20.4 89.7 —25.0 10.4 Horses 19,220 16,952 15,266 10,357 7,i45 6,249 % increase i3-4 H-O 47-4 44-9 14-3 iJnited Kingdom — Cattle 11,765 11,455 10,790 9,871 9,235 % increase 2.7 6.1 9.3 6.8 Sheep 31,165 31,05s 31,667 30,240 32,787 % increase 0.3 — 1.9 4.7 — 7-7 Swine 3,561 3,664 4,362 2,863 3,651 % increase —2.8 — 16.0 52.3 —21.5 Horses 2,095 2,000 1,965 1,930 1,750 ; % increase — 4.7 1.7 1.8 10.2 Canada — Cattle 6,521 5,609 4,100 2,820 % increase 16.2 36.8 45.3 Sheep 2,659 2,588 3,296 3,084 % increase 2.7 —21.4 6.8 Swine 3,I0S 2,392 1,801 1,225 % increase 29.8 32.8 47.0 Horses 2,340 1,586 1,365 1,064 % increase 47-5 16.1 28.2 66 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [410 Table VIII.— Animals on Farms, 1860-igio— Continued (Expressed in thousands) Country 1910 1900 i8go 1880 1870 i860 New Zealand — Cattle 1,773 i,2S7 '853 699 437 % increase 4i-0 47-3 22.0 59.9 Sheep 22,499 19,355 16,196 12,985 9,701 % increase 16.2 19.5 24.7 33.8 Swine 245 250 278 200 151 % increase 2.0 lo.o 39.0 32.4 Horses 363 266 187 162 81 % increase 36.4 42.4 15.4 loo.o India — Cattle 119,379 86,218 73.258 % increase 38.4 17.6 Sheep 23,325 17,855 17.070 % increase 30.6 4.5 Swine No data Horses I,SS3 1.339 1.078 % increase 15.9 24.2 Australia — Cattle 11,744 8,471 il,799 10,118 % increase 38.6 — 28.2 16.6 Sheep 92,047 72,029 99,857 97,881 % increase 27.7 — 27.6 2.0 Swine 1,026 947 803 891 % increase 8.3 17.9 — 9.8 Horses 2,116 1,625 1,639 i,S22 % increase 30.2 — 0.8 7.6 Russia in Europe — Cattle 33,585 35,917 27,622 23,84s 21,409 % increase — 6.4 30.0 15.8 11.3 Sheep 39,616 52,191 48,220 48,884 46,477 % increase — ^24.0 8.2 — 1.3 5.1 Swine 10,818 12,629 10,742 9,208 9,051 % increase — 14.3 17.5 16.6 1.7 Horses 22,307 21,076 20,867 20,016 iS,6ii % increase 5.8 i.o 4.3 28.2 41 1 1 ANIMALS ON FARMS (^y Table VIII. — Animals on Farms, 1860-1910— CowftwMed (Expressed in thousands) Country 1910 1900 1890 1880 1870 i860 Rusria in Asia — Cattle 10,685 7.670 % increase 39.3 Sheep 22,351 18,459 % increase 21.0 Swine 1,948 1,295 % increase 50.4 Horses 7,947 4,886 % increase 62.6 Norway — Cattle , 1,094 95° 1,006 1,017 953 950 % increase 15.1 — ^5.6 — i.o 6.7 0.2 Sheep , 1,690 1,213 1,690 2,008 1,996 1,953 % increase 39.3 — 28.2 — 15.8 0.5 2.0 Swine 319 165 121 loi 96 '113 % increase 93.3 36.6 19.8 5.2 15.1 Horses 172 173 151 152 149 154 % increase — 0.6 14.5 — 0.6 2.0 — 2.9 Sweden — Cattle 2,748 2,583 2,399 2,228 1,966 1,917 % increase 6.3 7.6 7.6 13.3 2.5 Sheep 1,073 1,341 1,438 1,56s 1,719 1,644 % increase — 19.9 -^.7 — 8.8 —8.9 4.5 Swine 957 806 645 419 354 458 % increase 18.7 24.9 53.9 18.3 —22.7 Horses 587 533 487 465 428 401 % increase.. 10.1 9.4 4.7 8.6 6.7 Denmark — Cattle 2,254 1,840 1,606 1,470 1,239 % increase 22.5 8.4 ' 15.3 18.6 Sheep 767 i,io6 1,239 1,558 1,842 % increase — 30.6 — 10.7 — 20.4 — 15.4 Swine 1,468 1,168 771 527 442 % increase 25.6 51.4 46.2 19.2 Horses 535 449 376 248 317 % increase 19.1 19.4 8.0 9.7 68 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [412 Table VIII.— Animals on Farms, i?6o-ig\o—C ontinued (Expressed in thousands) Country 1910 1900 1890 1880 1870 i860 Germany — Cattle 20,631 18,940 17,556 15,787 15,777 14,999 % increase 8.9 7-8 ii-2 S-i Sheep 11,238 12,958 16,681 21,831 27,310 29,83s % increase — 13-2 —22.3 —23.5 ^20.0 —8.4 Swine 22,147 16,807 12,147 9,2o6 7,124 6,463 % increase 3i-7 38.3 3i-9 29.2 10.2 Horses 4.345 4.I9S 3.836 3.S23 3.352 3,194 % increase 3-5 9-3 8.8 S-O 4-9 Netherlands — Cattle 2,027 1.656 1,533 1.47° Mn 1.25a % increase 22.4 8.0 4.2 4.1 12.6 Sheep 1,113 950 984 i.oos 1,037 98( fo increase 6.8 —3.4 —2.0 3.x 5-7 Swine 1,260 747 597 335 329 271 % increase 68.6 25.1 78.2 1.8 21.4 Horses 327 295 273 278 252 243 % increase 10.8 8.0 — 1.7 10.3 3.7 Belgium — Cattle 1,866 1,646 1,421 1,383 1,242 1,258 % increase , 13.3 15.8 2.7 11.3 — 1.2 Sheep 477 614 783 583 % increase — 22.3 — 21.5 34.3 Swine 1,116 1,015 1,163 646 632 458 % increase 9.9 — 12.7 80.8 2.2 37.9 Horses 255 244 272 272 283 277 % increase 4.5 — 10.2 — 3.8 2.1 France — Cattle 14.298 14.521 13,563 11,446 11.358 12,812 % increase — 1.5 7.0 18.4 0.7 — 11.3 Sheep 18,776 21,737 23,164 24,038 25,388 31.256 % increase — 13.6 — 6.1 — ^3.6 — 5.3 — 18.7 Swine 7,306 6,740 6,017 S.566 5,630 6,038 % increase 8.3 12.0 8.1 — i.i — 6.7 Horses 3,160 2,903 2,862 2,849 2,755 2,914 % increase 8.8 1.4 0.5 3.4 — 5.4 413] ANIMALS ON FARMS go Table VIII. — Akimals on Farms, 1860-1910 — Continued (Expressed in thousands) Country 1910 1900 i8go 1880 1870 i860 Italy- Cattle 6,199 S,Soo 5,000 4,772 3,489 % increase , 12.7 lo.o 4.7 36.7 Sheep 13.878 11,200 8,700 10,612 8,666 % increase 23.9 28.7 — 18.0 22.4 Swine 2,508 2,150 1,800 1,164 i,SS4 % increase 16.6 19.4 54.6 — ^25.0 Horses 1,293 I7O69 1,020 962 697 % increase 20.9 4.8 6.0 38.0 Austria — Cattle 9,160 9,511 8,644 8,584 7,425 % increase — ^3.6 lo.o 0.7 15.6 Sheep 3,68s 3,641 4,223 4,847 6,005 % increase 1.2 — 13.7 — 12.8 — 19.2 Swine 6,432 4,683 3,550 2,722 2,551 % increase 37.3 31.9 30.4 6.7 Horses 1,083 1.716 1,548 1,463 1.39° % increase 5.0 10.8 5.8 5.2 Hungary — Cattle 7,153 6,738 6,100 5,311 5,279 % increase 6.1 10.4 14.8 0.6 Sheep 8,214 8,431 9,000 10,171 15,650 % increase — 2.5 — 6.3 — 11.5 — 35.0 Swine 5,490 7,330 5,700 4,160 4,443 % increase — 25.1 28.5 37.0 — 6.3 Horses 2,174 2,308 2,160 2,079 2,159 % increase — 5.8 6.8 3.8 — 3.7 Roumania — Cattle 2,589 2,520 2,376 % increase 2.7 6.0 Sheeo 5,888 5,212 4,900 % increase 12.9 6.3 Swine 1,709 926 886 % increase 84.5 4.5 Horses 864 595 533 % increase 45.2 11.6 70 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [414 Table VIII.— Animals on Farms, iS6o^igio— Concluded (Expressed in thousands) Country 1910 1900 1890 1880 1870 i860 Bulgaria — Cattle 1,696 1,596 1,426 % increase 6.2 11.9 Sheep 9,515 8,421 8,130 % increase 12.9 3.5 Swine 465 368 462 fo increase 26.3 — ^20.3 Horses 538 495 344 % increase 8.6 43.8 Algeria — Cattle 1,128 1,035 1,095 % increase 8.9 5.4 Sheep 13,033 11,977 11,285 % increase 8.8 6.1 Swine no 81 87 % increase 37.4 — 6.9 Horses . ..^ 227 216 215 % increase 5.0 0.4 Uruguay — Cattle 8,193 6,827 4,963 % increase 20.0 37.5 Sheep 26,306 18,629 14,555 % increase 41.2 27.9 Swine 180 94 30 % increase 91.4 213.3 Horses 556 561 356 % increase — 0.8 57.5 Argentina — Cattle 28,828 21,702 21,962 % increase 32.8 — i.i Sheep 73,013 77,128 68,600 % increase — 5.3 12.4 Swine 1,404 653 394 Jo increase 115.0 65.7 Horses 8,435 4,447 4234 % increase 89.6 5.0 415] ANIMALS ON FARMS 71 Table VIII.— Animals on Farms, i86o-igio— Continued (Expressed in thousands) Country 1910 1900 1890 1880 1870 i860 Chile- Cattle 1,640 2,67s % increase — 38.6 Sheep 3,748 4,528 % increase — 19.4 Swine 160 339 % increase — 52.8 Horses 415 746 % increase — 44.3 Spain — Cattle 2,369 2,497 2,218 2,sso 2,905 % increase — 5.1 12.5 — 13.0 — 12.2 Sheep 18,334 15,920 15,894 19.000 22,055 %, increase 15. i o.i — 16.3 — 13.8 Swine 2,424 2,080 1,928 3,000 4,265 % increase 16.5 7.8 — 35.7 29.6 Horses 520 440 397 % increase 18.1 10.8 Japan — Cattle 1,384 1,261 1,057 % increase 9.7 19.3 Sheep 95 62 %. increase 53.2 Swine 279 181 % increase 54.1 Horses 1,565 1,542 1,548 % increase 1.4 — 0.3 Total- Cattle 362,117 314,664 273,945 141,673 107,946 58,817 % increase 15.0 14.8 93.3 31-2 83.5 Sheep 477,784 458,515 443,513 330,41s 229,894 88,723 % increase 4.2 3.3 34.2 43.7 iS9-i Swine 132,914 131,146 ni,734 90,801 65,408 47,3i4 % increase 1.3 i7-3 23.0 38.8 38.2 Horses 84,848 72,926 63,032 47,975 36,369 13,433 ^ increase 16.3 15.6 31.3 31.9 i70-7 CHAPTER VI Other Foodstuffs and the Possibility of Increasing THE Supply Although cereals, pulse, roots, and meat form the staples of the diet of most of the people in the western world, we know that many other articles are also used. It is quite impossible to estimate the extent to which fruit, nuts, garden stuffs, etc., are increasing in the various coun- tries of which we have thus far taken notice. It will be Table IX. — Sundry Crops ^ in the United States, 1900 and 1910 Crop 1910 1900 Vegetables 2$ 216,257,068 120,281,811 % increase 79.8 Fruit and Nuts ^ $ 222,024,216 133,048,721 % increase 66.9 Orchard Fruits ^ 216,083,693 212,365,600 Jo increase 1.8 Grapes * 2,571,065,205 1,300,984,097 %. increase 97.6 Tropical and subtropical fruits ^ $. . 24,706,753 8,227,838 % increase 200.3 Nuts * 62,328,010 40,028,825 % increase 55.7 ^United States, Thirteenth Census, Abstract, p. 360. ^Only data on value available. Vegetables includes all vegetables but potatoes and sweet potatoes. Fruit and nuts include the value of all the articles which appear in this table except vegetables. * Quantity expressed in bushels. * Quantity expressed in lbs. 72 [416 417] OTHER FOODSTUFFS 70 possible, however, to bring forth a few facts regarding the growth of sundry articles of diet in the United States. We cannot estimate the percentage increase in food values for these different articles, but we may be able to get some gen- eral impression of the place which they hold in our modern diet. Table IX shows the growth of various crops in the United States according to the census returns for 1900 and 1 910. Besides these crops there are numerous garden crops for which no returns exist. ^ We all know that there are perhaps millions of gardens whose produce never is re^ corded in the census reports, because the owners themselves do not know how much they produce. But it seems doubt- ful whether gardens furnish any larger percentage of the total diet of the population now than they formerly did. The development of truck gardening has been very rapid, it is true, but whether it has been rapid enough to supply the customary amount of vegetables to the growing population of our cities is questionable. Moreover, in every small city a few years ago there were numerous gardens, almost every house having its garden, but to-day — even where there is plenty of land — there are not as many gardens as formerly. Each generation of city-dwellers get a little farther from the soil, and we find people buying green groceries to-day who would have raised them a few years ago. If anyone doubts that this is the case let him visit the stores of a few of the small towns having from 1,500 to 5,000 population, and find out from the merchants from whom they are getting their green groceries and to whom they are selling them. It is very questionable whether the growth in truck gardening is keeping pace with the demand for green groceries caused by the decrease of produce from kitchen gardens. I do not mean that there is actually a smaller quantity of garden ' United States, Thirteenth Census, Abstract, p. 360. 74 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [418 Stuffs produced in kitchen gardens now than formerly, but that the proportion of the diet so produced is smaller than formerly. In many cases even the prosperous farmer of the Middle West is found buying his vegetables in the nearby town, while it is a well-known fact that many small farmers of the Eastern States scarcely supply their own needs. Rice shows a very substantial gain in quantity produced in recent years, and also a gain in production per acre. The gain in production between 1900 and 19 10 was 142.6 per cent and the increase in acreage but 78.3 per cent.^ But even with this large increase in production the index number for the price of rice rose about 6 per cent between 1900 and 1907.^ We have seen that most of the crops which might be classed as miscellaneous crops show a substantial increase in quantity produced in recent years — a much greater increase, for the most part, than we found in the case of cereals and animals. Does this mean that these articles of diet are re- placing those we usually regard as staple? To think this would be a mistake. In the first place, there is the fact men- tioned above, that many people who raised their own vege- tables a few years ago now buy them. Then there is the fact that the workingman of to-day when he buys fruit, garden truck, etc., does not do it to take the place of some staple which has heretofore been in his diet, nor even to lessen the quantity of this staple, but rather to increase the quantity and quality of his diet. A considerable acquaintance, at first hand, with laboring men leads me to believe that this is the case, and that the laborer suffers as much hardship in being deprived of these delicacies as he would if de- ^ United States, Thirteenth Census, Abstract, p. 360. " The later reports of the Department of Labor do not include rice in their price investigations. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bulletin, whole no. 132, no. 10, pp. 14, 15. For index numbers see Bulletin, no. jy. 419] OTHER FOODSTUFFS 75 prived of some of the staples. This is to say, the in- creased standard of living and the proportional decrease in number of kitchen gardens make it improbable that the staples are less staple to-day than they were twenty or thirty years ago, and also make it improbable that the greatly increased apparent production which has taken place in the last few years, according to census reports, is a proportional increase. This is not to say that in some cases and in some classes of the population the staples are not changing, but that this is true of any considerable part of the population does not seem likely. The inves- tigation made by the Bureau of Labor, the results of which appeared in the Eighteenth Annual Report, 1903, confirms the above conclusion, for in 2,567 working men's families from which it was possible to get itemized accounts of expenditure for food it was found that only 10.82 per cent of the total was spent for vegetables and fruit other than potatoes.^ This shows that vegetables and fruit are not becoming staples of diet among the working classes. This 10.82 per cent must also include the expenditure for canned goods, because no separate percentage is given for them. There is an item in the list entitled " other food " which comprises 6.24 per cent of the expenditure for all food. It would not be reasonable to suppose that any great pro- portion of this 6.24 per cent was spent for canned goods. At the most, then, we may estimate 12.0 per cent as the proportion of the total expenditure which went to buy vegetables and fruit, including canned goods. There can be no doubt but that with the growing concen- tration of population, canned goods have tended to take the place of green groceries. There is no means of proving that canned goods have or have not increased the total con- 1 United States, Dept. of Labor, Eighteenth Annual Report, p. 82. 76 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [420 sumption of vegetables and fruits by the laboring classes. My own opinion (based upon acquaintance with and ob- servation of laborers) is that the total amount of vegetables and fruit used to-day (potatoes excluded) is no greater than it was a few years ago. My opportunities for observation have been greatest in the agricultural states of the middle west, where one would naturally expect to find the people supplying their own wants for vegetables and fruits to a greater extent than in the more thickly populated states in the eastern part of our country. Even here the great de- pendence of the people upon the market for green groceries and canned goods shows that the proportion of their own wants which they are supplying from their gardens to-day is steadily growing less. The conclusion which I draw from these facts is that, even though the census reports show a very rapid growth in the quantity of vegetables and fruit produced in the last decade or two, this is not conclusive proof that there is a greater amount of these foods available for consumption per capita than formerly. The greater amount is only apparent. It is due to the concentration of agricultural production which makes it possible for the cen- sus bureau to obtain more accurate data now than it could at an earlier time. We must, however, recognize that at pres- ent the data are very inadequate and that they are not com- parable over a series of years. POULTRY The census returns on poultry and eggs produced are so incomplete that it is impossible to tell anything definite about the numbers.^ The total values for 1900 and 1910 are given, and they are much more reliable. The value of poultry raised in 1910 is reported as $202,506,272, while 'United States, Thirteenth Census, Abstract, p. 353. 421] OTHER FOODSTUFFS 77 that raised in 1900 is given as $136,830,152, or a gain of ^•O per cent/ The index number for price of chickens rose from 100.8 in 1900 to 131. 4 in 1907 on the base 1890- 99,^ and there is good reason to believe that it rose much more up to 1910. For this reason it seems doubtful vsrhether the number of chickens (which form about 95 per cent of the total poultry)^ is increasing very rapidly. Twenty per cent would seem to be a very liberal rate of increase to allow, and even this should probably be lower when we take into account the better enumeration in 1910.* The value of eggs sold is reported as $306,688,960 in 1910 and $144,240,541 in 1900, or an increase of ti2.6- per cent.° But during the samg_p£jiod the index numSer for price of eggs rose frort^^.i to 158^ on the base 1890- 99,' an ingrease of aboi£i6o^^nceTitr'which is over one-half 'Tofthe total increase 3ljt^^} But even after we have made alFowance for this increase in price, we must take into account the growing concentration of the poultry busi- ness and its effect on the census returns. The small flock of chickens, like the kitchen garden, is becoming a thing of the past, and people who raised their own chickens a few years ago now rely upon the market to supply them. Besides, poultry has risen more in m ite than most otfjer-commadities, and therefore we should ex- pect that it would be found less on the tables of the middle cl asses than formerly. ' United States, Thirteenth Census, Abstract, p. 353. • United States, Statistical Abstract, 1911, p. 556. ' United States, Thirteenth Census, Abstract, p. 336. */6ii., p. 353. ' Ibid., p. 353. " Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bulletin, whole no. 132, no. 10, p. 15. 78 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [422 FISHERIES Another large source of food is fish. The data on quan- tity of fish caught is entirely lacking for most countries, and is in such form that one cannot express the results quantitatively for several of those countries which have data. For this reason no table of value can be constructed, but the chief facts for a few countries will be set forth briefly. In the United States the first year for which we have statistics for the catch of fish is 1902. As a matter of fact, the statistics are given for different sections of the country in different years from 1902-1905. I shall speak of them here as though all of the figures were for the year 1903. The total catch for that year was/1 ^866, 17 1 ,000 pounds (the salmon catch for Alaska not being included, as there are no data for this_ :year).^ The catch for the year 1908 was 1,893,454,000 pounds,'' a gain of 1.4 per cent in five years. The catch of salmon in Alaska in 1908 was 206,- 718,000 pounds.' We cannot tell the rate of increase be- cause we have no earlier data. The number of persons employed in the industry in 1908 was 143,881 and the cap- ital invested was $42,020,932.* The value of the products was $54,030,629.* We do not have these same data for earlier years. The increase of the fish caught by the fisher- men of the United States during this five-year period would not lead one to believe that fish are replacing other kinds of meat in our diet. The statistics of Canada regarding fisheries are more complete than those of the United States. The value of the catch in 1910 was $29,695,433; in 1900, $21,557,639; ^United States, Statistical Abstract, 191 1, p. 170. ''Ibid., p. 174. "Ibid., p. 170. *Ibid., p. 17s. 423] OTHER FOODSTUFFS 70 in 1890, $17,714,902; in 1880, $14,499,979/ The percent- ages of increase are, respectively, 37.7, 21.6, 22.1. The number of persons engaged as fishermen in 1910 was 68j^6ip; in 1900, 71,859; in 1890, 63,726; in 1880, 60,657.' The percentages of increase are, respectively, — ^4.5, 12.7, 5.0. The total capital invested was: 1910, $19,019,870; 1900, $10,990,125; 1890, $7,372,641; 1880, $3,936,582." The percentages of increase are, respectively, 73.0, 49.0, 87.2. From these percentages it appears that the ntunber of fishermen has been -d«ereasing in the last decade, while the capital irn^sted.increasedjvery rapidly. [The yalue^f the catch of fish increased about one-half as-iastJLl*^^ capital invested. It is quite doubtful, however, whether the 37.7 per cent increase in the value of the 1910 catch represents a like increase in quantity of fish, for the general level of wholesale prices in Canada was 27.3 per cent higher in 191 1 than the average for the decade 1890-99.* If the price of fish rose to the general level of prices, the increase in quantity was probably not more than lo.o per cent. There is no way to set off decrease in numbers of fisher- men against increase in capital invested, and so it is impos- sible to say whether the fisheries of Canada are working in the stage of increasing or diminishi ng returns. That is to say, if weToiind:^ coiTsistently rapid increase in capital invested and men employed, and that the quantity of fish was increasing but slowly, there would be good reason to believe that, even at this early stage, the Canadian fisheries were working in the stage of diminishing returns. As was said above, no definite conclusion can be drawn from the ' The Canada Year Book, 191 1, p. 387. ' Ihid., p. 390 and 1898, p. 176. *Ihid., 191 1, p. 390. *Ibid., p. xxxiii. 8o POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [424 facts. But they suggest very strongly that the law of diminishing returns is in operation. In France the'number of men engaged in the fishing in- dustry was 161,305 in 1901^ 146,631 in 1890, and 136,370 in 1881.^ The percentages of increase are, respectively, lo.o and 7.5. The value of the catch was 126,030,000 fr. in 1901, 107,563,000 fr. in 1890, and 82,670,o66~in 1880.'' The percentages of increase are, respectively, 17.1 and 30.1. These percentages of increase become more significant when we consider the index number for prices of foodstuffs. Taking 1881 as a base, the index number in 1890 was 79.3 and that in 1901 was 72.7.^ For this reason the percentage increase in quantity of fish caught must have been consid- erably above the-perc entag es of increase-in value. The data on the amount of capital invested in the industry are not available. There are some data for the fisheries of Norway and the Netherlands in the Stat. Abstract for the Principal and Other Foreign Countries, but they are not complete enough to enable one to draw any conclusions as to increase or de- crease of quantity caught, and there is no way of correla- ting the quantity caught with the expense of catching them. For these reasons the statistics of these countries will not be given here. The Statistical Abstract for the United Kingdom gives the quantity and value of fish landed on the coasts of the United Kingdom, but it does not give the numhet-Of men employed jior^the_caEitaJjnve§ted^ 'There were 22,37^,221 cwts. landed in 1910, 14,671,070 cwts. in 1900,* 12,768,892 ' Board of Trade, Stat. Abs. for the Princ. and Other Foreign Coun- tries, no. 23, pp. 320, 321 ; no. 3;^, p. 352. ^ Ibid., loc. cit. ' March, Bull, de I'inst. internat. de stat., vol. xix, pt. iii, pp. 222, 223. * Board of Trade, Stat. Abs. for the Un. Kingdom, no. 60, pp. 350, 351- 425] OTHER FOODSTUFFS 81 cwts. in 1890.'^ The percentages of increase are, respec- tively, 52.4 and 14.8. Although the fisheries of the countries mentioned have shown gains in most cases, these gains have not been large except in the case of the United Kingdom. It is impos- sible, however, to tell the rate of increase in the quantity of fish caught. It is also impossible to tell anything about the cost of catching fish to-day as compared with the cost a few years ago. The only country where there were any data making possible such a comparison — Canada — had certain factors entering in which made any definite conclu- sions out of the question, although these data seemed to point to an increasing cost for catching the same quantity of fish. This brief survey of the growth of the food supply, jother than staples, while showing that many of these sources of food are increasing quite rapidly, does not justify the con^sioTLthat they are increasing so rapidly that they are [replacing thf; staples. Nor does it justify the conclusion that in the United States as a whole these sources of food are being added to the_diet_of_the_great-^Basses of the people. We have seen that the growing concentration of Reduction of these various kinds of food makes it easier to secure more accurate data. Besides, there is the fact that an increasingly great number of people are not in a position to supply in part-lheir own waots as was the case -ar4ew_years ago. What is true of the United States is probably true of the more developed of the European nations, and will sooner or later be true of the nations which are just entering upon a period of rapid development. Lest this should seem a broad and hasty generalization, I ask the reader to reserve 1 Board of Trade, Stat. Abs. for the Un. Kingdom, no. 50, pp. 214, 21S. 82 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [426 judgment until I have discussed the. growth of_ food supply in connection with the growth of population in a^ate^ chapter. POSSIBILITIES OF AGRICULTURE IN THE UNITED STATES We will turn now from a study of the increase of various foodstuffs to the possibilities of agricultural , development. The United States is even yet one of the newer countries, and its possibilities are certainly greater than those of any other country in the temperate latitudes.^ Since this is the case, it will not be necessary to attempt such a study for other countries. The possible extension of the area of cultivation by means of irrigation is one of the first things that comes to mind when we think about this matter. We hear much about the vast areas of- arid Jand which can be reclaimed by irrigation — so much that one is inclined to think at times that almost all of the arid lands of our country only await the building of canals into them in order to become the garden-spots of the nation. I shall quote from a letter sent me by Mr. Samuel For- tier. Chief of Irrigation Investigations of the Department of Agriculture: 1. Area of irrigated land in the United States, 1909 — 13,738,- 485 acres. 2. Approximate area irrigated at present (Nov., 1913)— iSr 500,000 acres. 3. Estimated area of irrigated land when all available water is used and transported by present inethods, less necessary deduction for drainageTproportionate acreage of different crops remaining as at present — 50,000,000 acres. 4. Estimated area of irrigated laii3lviieri alTavailable water is transported with minimum-.SKaste without regard to cost ' With the possible exception of Russia. 427] OTHER FOODSTUFFS 83 of construction of conduits, less necessary deduction for drainage, proportionate acreage of different crops remain- ing as at present — 65,000^000 acres. 5. Estimated area of irrigated land with most perfect known transmission of water and optimum utilization upon the fields, less necessary deduction for drainage, proportion- ate acreage of different crops remaining as at present — 9Q,QQ0j000 acres. 6. Probable area which could be profitably irrigated at present prices of farm products, labor, land, and capital — ^45,000,- 000 acres. The statistics given here show us that the extension of tillable lands through the development of irrigation, if car- ried to its maximum in this decade, would not exceed 76,- 000,000 acres, or 8.6 per cent increase in the area already in farms, or 15.8 per cent in the area of improved land in farms ^ (supposing that all irrigated lands are improved lands). But if we take 45,000,000 acres as the most which we can expect to see irrigated under present conditions, then the increase in total farm lands from this source would be only 3i^ooOjOOO^cres, or 3.5 per cent, while the increase in improved land would be only 6.4 per cent. At best, then, we cannot look for very great extension of the area of cul^ tivation through irrigation. The crop yield might easily be raised more than the acreage under cultivatjonr But of this and its consequences mtjre will be saldTater. Those who are very sanguine about the future of our agriculture will at once point to the fact that at present only 46.2 per cent of our land area is included in the farms,^ and that of the land in farms 54.4 per cent is improved,* ' The area now in farms is 878,798,325 acres, and the area improved is 478,451,750 acres. See Thirteenth Census, Abstract, p. 265. 2 Thirteenth Census, Abstract, p. 265. ^ Ibid., loc. cit. 84 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [428 which is only 25.1 per cent of the total land area of the country. Let us see, then, how much we can expect to see the area of land in farms increased. According to a map prepared by Alfred J. Henry, of the United States Weather Bureau, showing the normal annual precipitation in the United States 1870-1901,^ there are about 464,597,000 acres of land in the western part of the country where the annual precipitation is 15 inches or less. The map referred to shows only the average annual precipitation. I have ob- tained the above figures by estimating as carefully as pos- sible the proportion of certain states which have an average annual precipitation of 15 inches or less.^ If we subtract the maximum area of irrigation from this arid area we have left 374,597,000 acres which cannot raise normal crops and much of which cannot raise crops of any kind. This is supposing, too, that all the irrigated area of the nation is to be found in these arid states. Moreover, this does not take into account the arid portions of the Dakotas, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas, nor is account taken of those parts of the country which are mountainous, and therefore untillable. Besides, there is much waste land in the eastern part of the country which cannot be esti- mated. When we find that only about one-third of the area of Maine is under cultivation, a little over one-half of the area of Michigan, about four-sevenths of the area of Min- nesota, and a little over one-seventh of the area of Florida,* we may legitimately conclude that there is a large amount of land in these states which is untillable. I shall not attempt to make any estimate of the quantity of this land, but when ^ This map is published by the Department of Agriculture and can be obtained upon request. * Wash. 1-4, Ore. 1-3, Calif. 1-3, Ariz. 9-10, N. M. 5-6, Nev. all, Idaho 2-3, Montana 1-2, Wyoming all, Utah 7-8, Colo. 1-8. s Thirteenth Census, Abstract, p. 269. 429] OTHER FOODSTUFFS ge we think of these things it will be seen that the estimate of arid lands given above is a conservative estimate of the land which is now untillable and the prospects for tilling which are very remote. To this arid area we must add the area of the National Forests in continental United States. This area was 163,793,443 acres on June 30, 1911.^ (There are other forests which belong to individuals or corporations the area of which is not known, and therefore cannot be taken account of.) To this we must add the swamp and overflow lands, which amount to 74,541,700 acres according to the report of the National Conservation Commission.^ Part of this will be^eclairned in time, but much of it will be useless for an indefinite length of time. The cities of the United States occupy an immense amount of land which can never be of use in agriculture. There are in the United States 14,186 towns and cities.* Estimating the density of population for the largest cities at 10,000 per square mile, and gradually lowering it until that—foF-^aces of 2,500 or less was estimated at 500 per square mile, the total area of incorporated cities and towns is 34,981 square miles, or 22,387,840 acres. When we add the^areas of arid lands, national forests, swanip^and over- flow lands, and land in cities, we get a total of 635,3 19;9-53 acres which cannot be used for agricultural purposes at present, and most of it at no time, so far as we can see. When we subtract this area from the total land area — 1,903,289,600* acres — we have left 1,267,969,617 acres, of which 69.3 per cent is already in farms." But there are still subtractions to be made. There are roads between every 1 Statistical Abstract, igii, p. 163. ^ Ibid., 191 1, p. 32. ^Thirteenth Census, Abstract, p. 59. ^Ibid., p. 265. " Cf. supra, p. 83 note. 86 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [430 section of land in the settled part of the country. If we estimate eight acres to every square mile used in this way (which is not quite one-half of the area actually given to highways in most cases), or one-eightieth of the total till- able area (not including subtractions made above), we find that there are 15,849,620 acres used in this way. When this subtraction is made we have left 1,252,119,997 acres.^ Now, if we add the possible extension of irrigation — about 76,000,000 acres — to the area already in farms — 878,798,- 325 acres — and subtract this from the possible extension of land in farms — 1,252,119,997 acres — we get 297,321,672 acres which can be added to the area in farms in the future. This is 3 1. 1 per cent increase on the area of land in farms in 19 10 plus the possible extension through irrigation. The fact that the area of land in farms increased only 4.8 per cent'' between 1900 and 1910 shows that most of this land is as yet beyoiidJtlie.margin of profitable cultiva- tion. Thus, while it would be sheer nohsensTto claim that there are not great possibilities for the extension of the area of land in farms, it is by no means nonsense to claim that the land which is not yet in farms, but is available to be used for agricultural purposes, will only come into use as the margin of cultivation is extended and the prices of foodstuffs make it profitable to use this land. 1 Lest the subtractions made should seem too high to some I will men- tion some additions which might be made. The railroads of the United States had over 244,000 miles of track in 1911 (see Stat. Abstract of the United States, 1912, p. 304). At a very conservative estimate this means six acres per mile taken from agricultural uses. This amounts to 1,464,000 acres. Moreover this does not include any of the switching and terminal facilities of the railroads themselves nor any of the lines of switching and terminal companies, which together amount to about 89,000 miles in length {loc. cit.). Besides the rail- roads proper, the electric interurban lines are increasing year by year and in many cases do not keep to the regular highways. 2 Thirteenth Census, Abstract, p. 265. 431] OTHER FOODSTUFFS gy Regarding the possibility of extension of improved land in farms, little can be said. As was mentioned above, all irrigated lands are improved lands and, as a rule, yield more per acre than the ordinary farm lands. It seems prob- able, on the whole, that the possibility of extending the area of improved land is greater than that of extending the total area of farm lands. The area of improved lands increased 15.4 per cent^ between 1900 and 1910. At this rate of inc;«ase .there would be about 1,000,000,000 acres improved by '1560, and this seems to b^T generous upper limit for increase in improved lands. But this does not mean that there are a billion acres of land which could be improved and yield as much as the present improved land with the same amount of labor and expaiditure of capital. The improved lands, as all farm lands, will increase as the margin of cultivation is extended, but it will require a larger and larger amount of capital and labor to secure returns equal to those whichTHeTafiner is getting at present. This brings us to the question of diminishing returns, which will be discussed in a later chapter. ■■ Thirteenth Census, Abstract, p. 265. CHAPTER VII Imports and Exports of Foodstuffs This chapter can be very brief and yet serve its purpose, which is to show the trend in the importation and the ex- portation of foodstuffs in the most important countries of the western world. The only way this can be done for foodstuffs as a whole is by expressing the quantity of them in terms of value. Of course, the percentage of increase or decrease in value will not give us the percentage of increase or decrease in actual amount of foodstuffs, but by the aid of the index numbers in Chapter III an approximate estimate can be made for several of the more important countries. Besides, the rise in price denoted by the index numbers for these countries will apply with reasonable accuracy to the other countries which import or export considerable quantities of foodstuffs. If a fuller knowledge of the more important articles of food which are imported or exported is desired, the reader is referred to Appendix C. In that place will be found a list of the imports and exports itemized as minutely as seemed feasible in a study of this nature. These tables do not contain complete details in any case, but they contain the most important articles imported and exported in every case, and will give a fairly accurate notion of the move- ment of foodstuffs in and out of the various countries. In those cases where " total value " is given for a nation (as in the condensed table in this chapter) , it includes all arti- cles of food either going into or coming out of that country. 88 [432 433] IMPORTS AND EXPORTS OF FOODSTUFFS 89 There are some fluctuations from year to year in the various countries, but these are not nearly so large as one might suppose, and so these data represent to a reasonably accurate degree the real trend in the shipment of foodstuffs from country to country in the western world. The sources of these tables are as follows : for the United States, the Statistical Abstract of the United States; ^ for the United Kingdom, the Statistical Abstract of the United Kingdom; for the British Possessions, the Statistical Ab- stract for the Colonies and Self-Goveming Possessions of the British Empire; for the other countries, the Statistical Abstract for the Principal and Other Foreign Countries. Table X. — ^Value of Exports and Imports of Food Stuffs 1860-1910 (Expiessed in thousands) Country 1910 1900 1890 1880 1870 i860 United States- Total value ;?369,o88' S4S.474 356.83° 459.462 92,77250,791 % increase —32.3 52.8 —22.3 395.2 82.6 United Kingdom — Total value jf 38,945 26,195 23,143 23,594 19,10411,575 ^increase 41.0 13.2 — 1.9 23.5 65.0 Russia (roubles) — Total value 948,650 411,537 404,77' 261,621 183,304 % increase 130.5 1.7 54-7 42.7 Germany (marks) — Total value 749.000 518,000 471,000 563,000 389,000 % increase 44.6 9.9 — 16.3 44.7 France (francs) — Total value 858,200 769,200 855,400 666,965 613,100 % increase 1 1.6 — 10. i 28.2 8.8 Austria-Hungary — Total value ;f 9,684 13,109 14.650 « 1.933 % increase — 26.1 — 10.5 22.7 1 The data regarding the United States for i860 are taken from the Rep'ort on Commerce and Navigation for that year. 90 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [434 Table X — Value of Exports and Imports of Food Stuffs 1860-1910 — Con- cluded (Expressed in thousands) Country 1910 1900 1890 1880 1870 i860 Italy (lire)— Total value 613,219 349,479 255,229 329,202 246,675 % increase 75.5 36.9 — 22.5 33.5 IMPORTS United States- Total value ^326,343 230,944 261,812 218,422 150,23589,515 % increase 41.3 — 11.7 19.8 45.3 67.8 United Kingdom — Total value ;^257,682 219,970 176,137 183,527 110,96985,357 % increase 17.1 24.9 — ^4.0 65.4 30.0 Russia (roubles) Total value 190,843 115,733 83,453 132,892 52,317 % increase 64.9 38.7 — 37.2 154.0 Germany (marks) — Total value 2,467,000 1,763,000 1,397,000 1,258,000 1,009,000 % increase 39.9 26.2 n.o 24.7 France (francs) — Total value 1413,000 819,^001,445,1001,714,753 691,800 % increase 72.5 —43-3 — iS-7 147-8 Austria-Hungary — Total value ;£'io,ooo 11,517 7,991 11,208 % increase — 13.1 45.9 — 29.5 Italy (lire) Total value 659,866 290,484 318,921 205,97a 218,122 % increase 127.2 — 8.9 54.8 — 5.6 CHAPTER VIII The Movement of Population 1860-1910 Table XI shows the various phases of the movement of population during the last half-century for the more im- portant of the European nations and for the more impor- tant countries which they have colonized. Its purpose is to show the tendency of the movement of population in these countries and to give a fairly accurate idea of the expansion of the European peoples. THE BIRTH RATE Much has been written recently on the subject of the birth rate. It is a generally known fact that the birth rate is declining. Regarding the significance of this fact there are many divergent views. Some people think that a de- clining birth rate means that the nations in which this is taking place are losing their vitality. Others look upon it as a sign of advancing civilization and believe it indicates that more attention is being paid to the rearing of children fitted to carry on the development of modem civilization. If we turn to this table we see that the birth rate is de- clining in nearly all countries. Bulgaria, Roumania and Japan are the only countries among those given here where the birth rate is higher at the end of the last decade than for former decades for which data are available. In the United States there are no statistics except for a few of the states. I have given here the data for Massachusetts, which show that the birth rate in this state has remained almost stationary since i860, at which time it was a little 43S] 91 92 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [436 higher than at present. The reason that the rate in Massa- chusetts has not declined is not hard to find. In Massachusetts in 1870 the native-bom population of native parents constituted 57.0 per cent of the total popu- lation. The native-bom of foreign and mixed parentage and the foreign-bom constituted 43.0 in the same year.^ In 1890 the percentages were exactly reversed." During this same period of twenty years the native population born of native parents increased 15.6 per cent, while the native population born of foreign and mixed parentage and the foreign born increased 100.2 per cent. In the next twenty years (1890-1910) the native population bom of native parents decreased from 43.0 per cent to 32.8 per cent, while the native population bom of foreign and mixed parentage and the foreign-bom increased from 57.0 per cent to 67.2 per cent of the entire population. During this same period the native population bom of native parents increased but 14.7 per cent, while the native-bom of foreign and mixed parentage and the foreign-bom increased 77.1 per cent.' Thus it appears that while the birth rate of the native population has been declining, the large immigra- tion of foreigners into Massachusetts in the last forty years has kept the birth rate almost up to its earlier standard. This is much more evident if we consider the native-bom population of foreign and mixed parentage only. Bd:ween 1870 and 1890 it increased 122.2 per cent, and between 1890 and 1910, 93.0 per cent. Thus it is easily seen that the rapid increase of foreigners having a high birth rate is the cause of the maintenance of the relatively high birth rate of Massachusetts. These foreigners could have a '^ Ninth Census, Population, p. 312. ^ Eleventh Census, Population, vol. i, p. 615. * Thirteenth Census, Abstract, p. 83. 437] MOVEMENT OF POPULATION, 1860-1910 g^ much lower birth rate than they formerly had and still it would be higher than that of the native American popula- tion. Besides, we should expect that the age-groups of the immigrants would give them a high birth rate. Thus, while Massachusetts is an apparent exception to the rule, when we take into account the changes in the character of the population and in the age-groups there is no doubt that the birth rate is declining there as in most of the other coun- tries. The very slow rate of increase of the native-bom of native parents shows that the birth rate for this part of the population must be very low even if we allow some- thing for the emigration of native stock. It is impossible to secure any data on the birth rate in the United States as a whole, but in the table in this chap- ter I have endeavored to calculate a rate of increase which will approximate as nearly as possible the true rate of natural increase as explained on page lOO. This rate was obtained by subtracting the net immigration for each dec- ade from the total population at the end of that decade and then calculating the rate of increase upon the total popula- tion at the end of the preceding decade. This is not as accurate as we should like, but it shows clearly that the birth rate has been steadily falling since 1880. There are several factors which should be taken into account in con- sidering this as a rate of natural increase. In the first place, all the immigrants of the preceding decade are counted as a part of the population upon which the rate of increase is calculated. Of course there are more men among the immigrants who have stayed than there are women. As a consequence, it might be urged that one could not fairly count the immigrants of the preceding decade among the people constituting the base on which the rate of increase is calculated. This objection is of little force, however, because so large a percentage of the immi- 94 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [438 grant women belong in the child-bearing age-groups that they compensate for the undue proportion of single men among the immigrants. Besides, deductions have already been made for the immigrants who returned home, so that a large part of the surplus of immigrant men is not in- cluded in the calculations at all. It seems fair, then, to regard the decrease in the rate of natural increase in the United States as a statement of the declining birth rate. This statement is probably conserva- tive, too, when we take into consideration the declining death rate. Another way to show that the birth rate is declining in the United States is to compare the proportion of children to the number of women of child-bearing ages for a series of years. This is a fair comparison, because, as will be shown a few pages later, the age of women at time of mar- riage has not changed materially during the last thirty or forty years. This comparison shows that per thousand women fifteen to forty-nine years of age there were 626 children under five years of age in 1850; this number had fallen to 572 in 1870, to 485 in 1890, and to 446 in 1910 — altogether a decrease of 180 children per thousand women fifteen to forty-nine years of age during this period of sixty years. If we make the same comparison for white people only, the numbers are as follows : in 1850 there were 613 children to 1,000 women fifteen to forty-nine years of age; in 1870 there were 562, in 1890 there were 473, and in 1910 there were 440 — a decrease of 173 during this sixty- year period.^ If we take into account only the married, widowed and divorced women from fifteen to forty-four years of age, 1 United States, Bureau of the Census, Bulletin, no. 22, by W. F. Willcox, and Thirteenth Census, Abstract, Population, chaps, ii and iii, passim. 439] MOVEMENT OF POPULATION. 1860-1910 ge we get the following results: in 1890 there were 895 chil- dren under five years of age per thousand married, wid- owed or divorced women from fifteen to forty-four years of age in the United States; in 1900 the number of chil- dren had fallen to 865, and in 1910 to 792 — a decrease of 103 in twenty years. If we consider only native children^ under five years of age bom of native mothers, married, widowed or divorced, the numbers of children are y^y in 1890, 744 in 1900, and 706 in 1910 — a decrease of 71 in twenty years. If we consider the children under five years of age bom of foreign mothers, married, widowed or divorced, the numbers of children are: 1,259 in 1890, 1,287 in 1900, and 1,119 in 1910 — a decrease of 140 in twenty years and of 168 since 1900. In the negro popu- lation the number of children in the same age group per thousand women fifteen to forty-four years of age fell from 997 in 1890 to 773 in 1910.^ Thus it seems very clear that there has been a rapid decrease in birth rate in the United States in the last few decades. It is alsO' ap- parent that the immigrants with their high birth rate are furnishing a greater proportion of the children from dec- ade to decade, although the birth rate is declining among them also, as these statistics show. Thus it appears that the birth rate is declining through- out the civilized world. The question with which we are concerned is: What are the causes of this decline? Dr. Newsholme, in a tract entitled The Declining Birth-Rate, has made a study of some of the factors which might bring about this result. On the whole, our data, which are more complete and "more up-to-date than his, corroborate his con- clusions. ' The statistics for the proportion of children under five years of age to married, widowed, and divorced women 15-44 years of age cannot ht obtained prior to 1890. 96 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [440 Let us look at the marriage rate to see whether it has changed to such an extent that it would have an effect upon the birth rate. A careful study of the marriage rates and birth rates as given here fails to reveal any change in mar- riage rates of sufficient magnitude to affect the birth rates. It is worth notice, however, that the three countries which showed an increased birth rate do show a somewhat in- creased marriage rate, and that Roumania, which shows the greatest increase in birth rate, shows also a very marked increase in marriage rate. On the whole, however, there is practically no change in marriage rates. They seem to rise or fall but little at any point in the time covered by this table. Our study, then, corroborates Dr. Newsholme's con- clusion that the marriage rate has not changed sufficiently to influence the birth rate. Besides, even where there are changes in the marriage rate, they do not show any ten- dency, but seem rather to be local and temporary. The proportion of people marrying to-day is not smaller than formerly. For this reason the changes in the marriage rate are not a significant cause of the decline in the birth rate. Furthermore, when the number of women of child-bear- ing ages has been ascertained for a period of years,^ it is found that the proportion has not declined and that the re- sults obtained by an examination of the marriage rate are sustained. It is also found that the age at which marriage takes place has not altered to such an extent that it could be an important factor in causing a decline in the birth rate. Dr. Newsholme shows this to be the case for Eng- land.^ If we turn to the data for Massachusetts we find that the average age of all bridegrooms for the five-year period ending 1886 was 29.0 years, while for the five-year • Newsholme, The Declining Birth-rate (New York, 1911), chap. ii. '' Newsholme, op. cit., chap. ii. 44iJ MOVEMENT OF POPULATION, 1860-1910 gy period ending 191 1 it was 28.9 yeaxs — a slight decrease, which is not significant. The average age of all brides in the same periods was 25.3 years and 25.7 years, respectively, a difference of 0.4 of a year, which is not important. But if instead of all bridegrooms and brides we take the ages of those marrying for the first time, we find that that of the bridegrooms was 26.7 years for the earlier period and 27.3 years for the later period — an increase of 0.6 of a year. The ages of brides marrying for the first time for the same periods was 24.0 years and 24.3 years, respec- tively.^ None of these dififerences can be considered great enough to cause the steady decline in birth rates which we noticed above. There are some reasons pointed out above why Massa- chusetts might not be considered typical of the United States, e. g. the large foreign immigration. Let us turn, then, to a state in which the population is much more largely native and quite typical of most of the northern states, to see what is taking place there. In Mich- igan the birth rate for the five-year period 1870-74 was 23.2, for the period 1886-90 it was 23.6, and for the period 1906-1910 it was 23.3. There is practically no change in forty years. ^ In the same period the death rate has increased from 8.3 for the five-year period 1874-78 to 9.5 for the period 1886-90, and to 14.0 for the period 1906-10.' The fall in the rate of natural increase is from 14.9 in 1870-74 to 1 4. 1 in 1886-90, and to 9.3 in 1906-10. At the same time the number of marriages remained prac- tically stationary in the two earlier periods, being 8.9 and 8.7, respectively, but rose to 10.4 in 1906-10.^ There can ' Massachusetts, The Seventieth Registration Report, 1911, p. IS9- ' Michigan, Forty-Fourth Registration Report, 1910, p. 2. = Ibid., p. 2. * md., p. 2. 98 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [443 be little doubt, then, that the number of children per family is falling and that the maintenance of the birth rate is due, to some slight extent, to the increased number of marriages. But it should be noted in regard to the birth rates and death rates in Michigan that it is quite likely they are both too low for the earlier periods taken account of here. This is because of the inadequate registration in the earlier years. There is also the fact that the large immigration of native stock into Michigan from the eastern statles tended to lower its death rate for a time. So that the fact that the registration of births and deaths is now quite accu- rate and that the recent foreign immigration has not raised the birth rate is adequate proof that the birth rate is de- clining. The large number of single men in the middle-age groups in an earlier time, and inadequate registration, would account for the very low birth and death rates recorded then. Therefore, while it is quite probable that the rate of natural increase was higher formerly than now, it is not probable that the difference is as great as ^ven here. This decrease in the rate of natural increase is just what we should expect in a state where the native stock predominates. We saw, also, that this was the case for the United States as a whole. During this same period the age at marriage in Michigan has been increasing slightly. It is impossible to give the average age at marriage at successive periods, as in the case of Massachusetts, but if we take the percentages of men and women belonging to the different age groups at mar- riage, we can see very clearly that there has been some in- crease in age at marriage. In 1871-75 the percentage of men twenty-nine years of age or under of the whole num- ber of men married was 73.3, while in 1906-10 the per- centage had fallen .to 71.2. The percentage of women twenty-four years of age or under of the total number of 443] MOVEMENT OF POPULATION, 1860-1910 go women married in 1871-75 was 73.4, while that for 1906- 10 was 67.5. It is worth noting here that while the per- centage of women under twenty years of age married 1871-75 was 36.9, it fell to 27.4 in 1906-1910, while the percentage in the age group 20-24 married during the same period rose from 36.5 in 1871-75 to 40.1 in 1906-1910.^ This shows without question that the age at marriage is rising slightly in Michigan. But even though there is an increase in age at marriage in a state where the native population is large, and though the increase is greater in the case of women than of men, it by no means follows that the decline in birth rate is due to the increased age at marriage. The greatest increase was seen in a moving of women from the age group under twenty into that from twenty to twenty-four years of age. A very slight increase in average age might make a large difference in the percentages falling within these vari- ous age groups. Dr. Newsholme found that in England the average age of spinsters at marriage had increased from 25.08 years in 1896 to 25.73 years in 1909.^ This increase is not large and might easily be adventitious, although there is good reason to think that the age at marriage is increas- ing somewhat. But from the evidence at hand one is forced to conclude that the postponement of marriage is not a very large factor in the declining birth rate at the present time. It seems far more likely that the same causes which are bringing about whatever postponement of marriage there is are the causes which are active after marriage to reduce the birth rate. In agreement with Dr. Newsholme, I would conclude, in general, " that volitional limitation of the family is the 1 Michigan, Forty-Fourth Registration Report, 1910, p. 64. All of these data relating to age at marriage will be found on this page. " Newsholme, op. cit., chap. ii. lOo POPULATION : A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [444 chief and vastly predominant cause of the decline in the birth-rate which is taking place in so many countries " ^ Of the indirect causes of the desire to limit ofif spring, something will be said in the following chapter. THE RATE OF NATURAL INCREASE The rate of natural increase of population is the differ- ence between the birth rate and the death rate. People who view the declining birth rate with apprehension often seem to forget that it is the rate of natural increase which is the important thing. They often overlook the fact that the death rate has been declining as fast as the birth rate. An examination of the death rates as given in this table for the various countries will show that the decline in them has been as universal as the decline in birth rates. With- out exception, the countries which show a steady decline in birth rate show a steady decline in death rate. The three nations mentioned above as having increased birth rates in the last decade also have increased death rates, so that it is doubtful whether the rate of natural increase is any larger than it would have been if there had been a decline in both birth rates and death rates. Their rates of natural increase are, however, larger than in most of the other countries. On the whole, it is by no means clear that the decline in birth rates has meant a decline in the rate of natural in- crease. In some countries, e. g. Australia and New Zea- land, there has been a decided falling oflf in the rate of natural increase, and there is good reason (as I have shown above) to believe that the same is true of the United States. One is inclined to think that the falling off in the birth rate has been greatest where the natural opportunities have been used up the most rapidly, for if we turn to the older Euro- pean countries we find almost no case of diminution of the rate of natural increase. ^ Newsholme, op. cit., p. 33. 445] MOVEMENT OF POPULATION. 1860-1910 jqi Moreover, if we consider the net increase in popula- tion from decade to decade, we find that in most countries it is as large now as formerly, and this, too, in spite of the large emigration which is taking place from many countries. In the United Kingdom the rate of growth of population does not seem to be lessened appreciably by the large number of emigrants, except for the decade ending 1890. The falling-off in rate of increase of population in 1910 is slight, while the number of emigrants increased over 700,000 between 1900 and 19 10. If the number of emigrants had been the same in 1910 as in 1900, the rate of natural increase for the United Kingdom would have been 10.9 per cent, and this is higher than for any preced- ing decade of which this table takes account. In recent years, when Russian emigration has become quite large, we find that the rate of natural increase re- mains high and that the rate of increase of population is higher for the thirteen years ending in 1910 than for any preceding period of equal length. An examination of the facts regarding Austria-Hungary and Italy shows that in these countries the rate of natural increase has decreased little or none and that the rate of increase in population has fallen off only in Hungary, and there but little in spite of the large emigration which is taking place. In the case of no country is it clear that emigration has materially affected the rate of increase of population in that country from decade to decade. Thus an examination of the rates of increase of population and of the rates of natural in- crease shows beyond doubt that the actual growth of popu- lation among the peoples of European origin is not de- creased by the decline in the birth rate. The nations indi- vidually bear out this conclusion, with only, an exception or two, and when we turn to consider the growth of popula- tion as a whole in these countries (leaving out of account India and Japan), we find that this conclusion stands. I02 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [446 Although data are lacking for several countries for i860 and 1870, they can be estimated. Using these estimates, the total population in all these countries was 297,019,- 000 in i860, 325,222,000 in 1870, 359.534,000 in 1880, 411,665,000 in 1890, 462,984,000 in 1900, and 532,735,000 in 1910. The percentages of increase are 9.5 per cent be- tween i860 and 1870, 10.5 per cent between 1870 and 1880, 14.5 per cent between 1880 and 1890, 12.5 per cent between 1890 and 1900, and 15.1 per cent between 1900 and 1910. Thus it is seen that the greatest increase has come in the last decade and that the declining birth rate is not suffi- cient to lower the rate of natural increase. These totals are not given as totals for the expansion of the European peoples during this fifty-year period, but as fairly repre- sentative of the rate of expansion. There are other countries in South America, in Africa, and in the Pacific islands where Europeans have gone but of which I have not tried to take account. But I think that any correc- tion to be made in the totals here given will go to show that there are more Europeans scattered throughout the world from decade to decade, and that if they were to be taken account of that they would probably raise the rate of increase. In the fifty years from i860 to 1910 the population of these nations increased 79.36 per cent. This may not seem large, bqt suppose the same rate of increase were to con- tinue for two centuries. At the end of the first century (2010 A. D.) there would be 1,713,755,000 people of Euro- pean stock on the earth. This is about equal to the entire population of the world at the present time. At the end of the second century (21 10 A. D.) the number of people of European stock would be 5,513,365,000, or about three times the present population of the globe. These are no fantastic figures based on a possible rate of increase. They 447] MOVEMENT OF POPULATION, 1860-1910 103 are based on what has actually taken place in the last fifty years, during which time the birth rate has been falling continuously. Those who think that the birth rate is fall- ing too rapidly should find food for reflection in these data. To say that the lands which the Europeans are reserving to themselves will not support this vast number of people would be pure assertion, but to maintain that there must be vast improvements in productive processes if these lands are to support this number of people with their present needs and with their growing desires, is well within the bounds of reason. Those who view the declining birth rate with apprehen- sion seem to take it for granted that the decline is going to continue steadily and that the death rate is now near a minimum. Both assumptions are purely gratuitous. The birth rate may go on declining, as is the case in France; about this we cannot say anything of value, we can only speculate. But about the decline of the death rate, much of value can be said. One needs only to mention the whole movement for public hygiene to see that the possibilities of reducing the death rate are large in this respect. It is need- less to enumerate the various aspects of this movement. Preventive medicine is just commencing to demonstrate its possibilities. The " safety first " campaigns, too, are for the purpose of preventing the needless waste of human life, which is very large at present. These are a few of the more important movements by which we can expect to see the death rate reduced in the near future. Besides, when we think of social insurance and its wide ramifications, and the various efforts being made to reduce infantile mortality, we cannot but conclude that the possibilities of reducing the death rate are great, though there is little doubt that each successive reduction will be more difficult to secure than the preceding one. I04 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [448 The conclusion which this chapter warrants is very brief : A study of the movement of population among the European peoples for the last half-century does not indi- cate that there is any immediate likelihood of population becoming stationary, nor that the rate of increase will slacken materially in the next few decades. The sources of the statistics in this table are: the Statis- tical Abstract for the United Kingdom, the Statistical Ab- stract for the Colonies and Self -Governing Possessions of the British Empire, the Statisticcd Abstract for the Pritv- cipal and Other Foreign Countries, the Reports of the Registrar-General of England, the Census Reports and Bulletins of the United States, the Abstract of the Report of the Immigration Commission of the United States, the Statistical Abstract of the United States, and the registra- tion reports of Massachusetts and Michigan. As in the preceding tables specific references have been deemed unnecessary in view of a general statement of sources, because each issue of nearly all of these sotirces contains the information for a series of years, and the in- dexes of these volumes enable one to turn at once to the pages on which certain information may be found. A de- tailed statement concerning all changes in date and number which occur in the tables of this chapter is given in Ap- pendix A. Table XL — The Movement of Population, 1860-1910* 1910 1900 1890 1880 1870 i860 United States — Population 1 91,972 75,995 62,948 50,156 38,558 31,443 % increase 21.0 20.7 25.5 30.1 22.6 35.6 Population of Mass 3.366 2,805 2,239 1,783 i,4S7 1,231 % increase 20.0 25.2 25.5 22.3 18.3 Birth rate 2 of Mass . . . 26.06 25.88 26.73 25.26 26.57 28.42 Death rate ^ of Mass . . 16.02 17.29 19.83 19.21 19.45 18.28 * All notes on this table will be found on p. 1 10. 449] MOVEMENT OF POPULATION, 1860-1910 105 Table XI. — The Movement of Population, z.?6o-igio— Continued 1910 1900 1890 1880 1870 i860 Rate of natural increase of Mass 10.04 8.S9 6.9 5.05 7.12 10.14 Marriages " 9.06 8.62 9.37 8.57 10.33 9-22 Immigrants * 8,795 3.688 5,247 2,812 2,315 2,5981 Emigrants" 2,932 1,229 1.749 562 461 519 Net immigration » 5,863 2,459 3.498 2,250 1,854 2,07g| Natural rate of increase in the United States . . 13.3 16.8 18.5 24.2 16.7 United Kingdom — Population 45,222 41,459 37,733 34,885 31,485 28,927 % increase 9.07 9.87 8.16 10.8 8.84 Birth rate 25.4 28.3 29.8 32.9 34.8 ^ Death rate 14.9 17.6 18.9 20.0 22.4 » Rate of natural increase. 10.5 10.7 10.9 12.9 12.2 ^ Marriages 7.3 7.6 7.1 6.9 8.4 ^ Immigrants ' 1,360 1,018 830 847 ■> Emigrants ' 2,841 1,743 2,559 1,679 ® Net emigration 1,481 725 1,729 832 » British India — Population 31S.086 294,316 287,271 % increase 7.05 2.4 Immigrants 84 Emigrants 174 Net emigration 90 Australia — Population 4.4S5 3.773 3.183 2,253 % increase 18.07 18.5 41.2 Birthrate 27 27 35 36 3810 Death rate 11 12 15 15 I3 ^° Rate of natural increase. 16 15 20 21 2510 Marriages 9 7 7 8 710 Immigrants 561 Emigrants 515 Net immigration 46 Canada — Population 7,447 5.592 5,035 4,336 3,518 % increase 33.1 ii.o 16.1 23.2 Inmiigrants 1,764 New Zealand — Population 1,008 773 627 49° % increase 30.4 23.2. 27.9 lo6 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [450 J. ABLE XI.— The Movement of Populatiok, ii6o-igio— Concluded 1910 1900 1890 1880 1870 i860 Birthrate 26 26 29 38 40 1" Death rate 9 10 1° " 1°^° Rate of natural increase. 17 16 19 27 30^" Marriages 9 8 6 7 7^* Immigrants 344 Emigrants 260 Net immigration 84 Russia in Europe — Population 131,022106,159 91,862 71,028 65,732 fo increase 23.4 15.5 29.3 8.0 Birth rate 46.8 48.8 48.6 Death rate 29.8 31.8 35.8 Rate of natural increase. 17.0 17.0 12.8 Marriages 9.6 8.8 8.7 Emigrants (landed in '. U. S.) 1,597 6ia 265 49 Norway — Population 2,392 2,240 2,001 1,813 1,702 % increase 6.7 11.9 10.3 6.S Birth rate 26.1 30.0 30.2 30.9 Death rate 13.7 15.4 17.4 16.3 Rate of natural increase. 12.4 14.6 12.8 14.6 Marriages 6.1 6.8 6.4 6.7 Emigrants 191 94 187 85 Sweden — Population 5,522 5,136 4,785 4,566 4,169 3,860 %, increase 7.5 7.3 4.8 9.5 8.0 Birth rate 25.1 26.8 27.9 29.6 32.0 ' Death rate 14.2 16.2 16.8 17.6 20.4 ' Rate of natural increase. 10.9 10.6 11. i 12.0 11.6' Marriages 6.0 6.1 5.9 6.3 7.0' Emigrants 224 188 376 17a Denmark — Population 2,737 2,450 2,172 1,969 1,785 i,6o8| % increase 11.7 12.7 10.3 10.3 ll.O Birth rate 27.8 29.8 3a8 32.0 31.6 Death rate 13.6 16.1 19.3 19.3 20.3 Rate of natural increase. 14.2 13.7 11. 5 12.7 11.3 Marriages 7.4 7.3 6.9 7.6 7.9 Emigrants 73 41 80 39 45lJ MOVEMENT OF POPULATION, 1860-1910 107 Table XI. — The Movement of Population, 1860-1910 — Continued 1910 1900 1890 i88o 1870 i860 Netherlands — Population 5,858 5,104 4,511 4,013 3,580 3,309 % increase 14.7 13.1 12.4 12.0 8.2 Birthrate 29.0 31.9 33.1 37.7 34.38 Death rate 14.3 17.1 20.5 22.2 25.7 » Rate of natural increase. 14.7 14.8 12.6 15.5 8.6 3 Marriages 7.3 7.5 7.0 7.5 7.98 Emigrants 28 24 52 38 Germany — Population 64,926 56,046 49,241 45,095 40,085 37,611 % increase 15.8 13.8 9.2 12.5 6.6 Birth rate 30.7 35.7 36.3 37.9 40.3 " Death rate 17.4 20.8 23.9 25.8 27.2 11 Rate of natural increase. 13.3 14.9 12.4 12.1 13. 1 1"^ Marriages 7.9 8.3 7.9 jA 9.3 Emigrants 237 206 1,341 530^2 Belgium — Population 7,424 6,694 6,069 5,537 5,088 4,733 % increase 10.9 10.3 9.6 8.8 7.5 Birth rate 24.4 28.8 29.5 31.6 Death rate 15.8 18.0 21.2 21.6 Rate of natural increase. 8.6 10.8 8.3 lO.o Marriages 7.9 8.3 7.4 6.8 Immigrants 246 192 150 94 Emigrants 162 212 176 119 no France — Population 39.602 38,962 38,343 37,672 36,102 37,386 % increase 1.6 1.6 1.8 4.3 — 3.4 Birthrate 19.5 21.8 22.6 24.9 26.1' Death rate 19.1 20.7 22.2 22.4 24.4 ^ Rate of natural increase. 0.4 i.l 0.4 2.5 1.7* Marriages 7.9 7.6 7.3 7.5 7-9' Emigrants 119 Austria — Population 28,572 26,151 23,895 22,144 20,218 % increase 9.2 9.4 7.9 9-5 Birthrate 33.0 36.7 37.3 38.6 40.2 » Death rate 22.2 24.8 28.5 307 3i-9' Rate of natural increase. 10,8 11.9 8.8 7.9 8.3" Marriages 7.6 8.0 7.7 7.8 8.6 ^ Emigrants " 2,017 671 444^^ lo8 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [452 Table XI. — The Movement of Population, 1860-1910 — Continued igio 1900 1890 1880 1870 i860 Hungary- Population 20,886 19,255 17,464 15,739 15,509 % increase 8.3 10.2 10.9 1.5 Birthrate 35.9 38.6 42.1 43.4 42.1 Death rate 24.7 26.9 32.8 324 35.9 Rate of natural increase. 11.2 11.7 9.3 li.o 6.2 Marriages 9.0 8.8 8.7 9.8 11. i " Emigrants. See Austria. Spain — Population 19,589 18,608 17,545 16,432 16,799 I5,6SS! % increase 5.2 6.0 6.7 — 2.2 7.3 Birthrate 33.2 34.3 36.2 36.7 36.5^° Death rate 23.9 27.9 31.6 30.6 30.9 Rate of natural increase. 9.3 6.4 4.6 6.1 5.6 Marriages 7.3 8.2 7.8 6.5 7.3 Emigrants 1,061 801 544 Bulgaria — Population 4,329 3,744 3,200 2,008 % increase 15.6 17.0 59.3 Birth rate 41.0 1' 39.6 36.9 Death rate 24.0 1" 23.4 23.2 Rate of natural increase. 17.0^" 16.2 13.7 Marriages 9.2 1« 8.6 8.6 Roumania — Population . / 6,966 5,957 5,800 5,300 4,754 4,000 % increase 16.9 2.7 9.4 11.4 18.8 Birth rate 41.6 39.2 Death rate 26.6 26.5 Rate of natural increase. 15.0 12.7 Marriages 9.7 y.y Argentina — Population 7,092 3,964 1,803 % increase 78.9 119.8 Immigrants 2,231 680 1,014 434 180 Emigrants 1,007 527 216 165 Net immigration 1,224 I53 798 269 453] MOVEMENT OF POPULATION, 1860-1910 joQ Table XI. — The Movement of Population, idSo-igio— Continued 1910 1900 i8go 1880 1870 i860 Uruguay — Population 1,043 936 751 438 334 229 % increase 11.4 24.6 71.4 31. i 45.4 Birth rate 32.1 1' 33.0 39.5 Death rate 14.0 1^ 13.5 18.1 Rate of natural increase. 18.1 " 19.5 21.4 Marriages 6.0 1' 4.8 5.5 Immigrants 83 86 150 Emigrants 62 66 82 Net immigration 21 20 68 Japan — Population (3) 50,896 44,816 40,719 36,500 33,111 % increase 13.5 lo.o 11.5 10.2 Birth rate 33.7 31.9 28.8 Death rate 21.3 20.6 20.4 Rate of natural increase. 12.4 11.3 8.4 Marriages 9.0 8.4 8.3 Italy- Population 34.671 32,450 30,536 28,460 26,810 21,777 % increase 6.8 6.3 7.3 6.2 23.0 Birthrate 32.3 33.3 37.2 36.4 37-4" Death rate 21. i 22.6 26.5 28.7 30.2 ^^ Rate of natural increase. 11.2 10.7 10.7 j.y 7.2 1' Marriages 7.8 7.2 7.6 7.3 T-T^^ Emigrants 5,531 1,487 990 119 This chapter concludes the compilation of data on the growth of population and food supply. For this reason it will be well to bring some of the results together here in graphic form. The discussion of these results will be found in the following chapter. For the explanation of the method used in the construc- tion of these graphs, see Appendix B. The logarithms will also be found there. In these graphs equal distances rep- resent equal percentages of rise or fall instead of absolute differences between numbers. For this reason the base line is merely conventional and the curves may be shifted up- wards or downwards to make comparisons easy. no POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [434 1 The number of people is expressed in thousands throughout this table. In some cases the census years of other countries do not coin- cide with those of the United States. In these cases a slight shifting forward or backward has been necessary. For all such changes see Appendix A. " Birth rates and death rates as given here are crude and are aver- ages for five-year periods of which the census year is the median un- less otherwise noted. The same is true of marriages and rates of na- tural increase. 3 The number of marriages per 1,000 of the population is meant. Each marriage involves two persons. These data like those on birth rates, death rates and rates of natural increase axe not available for the whole United States. * Throughout the table the number of emigrants and immigrants as given for a certain year means the total number for the decade of which the census year is the last year. ° This estimate supposes that i-S of the immigrants to the United States prior to 1881 returned home and that 1-3 have done so since that time. See Rep. of the Imm. C'Omm. (Washington, 1911), Abstract^ vol. i, p. 112. ' This number is secured by subtracting the number of immigrants that are estimated to have returned home from the total number of immigrants. ' For the countries of Europe the number of immigrants refers only to those of the nationality of the country from which they are reported as emigrating. * These are averages for the 20-year period, 1853-72. * Passengers of British nationality only bound to or coming from countries outside of Europe. i" These rates are for the single years 1871, 1881, 1891, 1901, and 1911. ^1 An average for the years 1873-76. ^^ Approximate only. 12 The no. of emigrants is for both Austria and Hungary. ^* In 1868 the marriage rate was unusually high. '» An- average for the years 1866-70. 1" An average for the years 1907-9. 1' An average for the years 1907-10. ^* An average for the years 1863-72. 455] MOVEMENT OF POPULATION, 1860-1910 III LEGEND for Figs.l-2-34-5»6 _iM Population ___ Cereals Exports Imports Cattle I860 ISrO 1S80 < 1- 1690 1900 1910 Fig.l United States Fig. 2 Un. Kingdom Fig. 3 Germany 112 MOVEMENT OF POPULATION, 1860-1910 [456 Fig.4 France Fig. 5 R ussia Fig. 6 Italy Note: These graphs have been reduced to five-eighths the original size. This should be borne in mind in comparing them with the logar- ithms from which they are constructed. For the method of construc- tion and the logarithms refer to Appendix B, pp. 17S-177. Obsei've that equal vertical distances on the charts denote equal percentages of rise or fall and not absolute amounts. CHAPTER IX The Growth of Population and Food Supply The second proposition which Malthus put forward, and which he considered the most important, was that!" popu- lation invariably increases where the means of subsistence increase,,unless prevented by some very powerful and ob- vious -checks ".^ What Malthus really wanted to prove was that actual pressure on the means of subsistence, and fear of pressure, were the chief causes which kept population from multiplying faster than it did, and that much misery and suffering were due to these causes.^ He regarded the rapid growth of population when the means of subsistence increased as proof of these propositions. He looked upon population as a great force gathered behind a movable barrier, which was the food supply. As this barrier was moved ahead and left an open space, population proceeded to iill up this open space. If the barrier were moved rapidly the population would increase rapidly, if it were moved slowly population would increase slowly, and always those close to the barrier would be in distress, and fear of being pressed close to the barrier would keep many others from having as large families as they would like to have. The question is then: Do the data in the preceding chapters throw any new light on the relation between the growth of population and food supply? The answer to this question is, Yes. In the last few ^ Cf. supra, p. 12. ^ Cf. supra, p. 14. 4S7] "3 114 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [458 decades more complete statistical data afford us a new means of testing Malthus' doctrine. Let us notice some of the countries with varying rates of increase in production of food to see what is taking place as regards the growth of population.^ In the United States the rate of increase in the produc- tion of cereals has been consistently high.^ The rate of increase in production of cattle has been high also until the last two decades. Most of the other kinds of food have also been increasing quite rapidly.' Now, if we examine the rate of increase of population we find that it has been somewhat lower in the last two decades than it was pre- vious to that time. The rate of increase between i860 and 1870 was 22.6 per cent in spite of the Civil War and the consequent drain upon the country. The rate of increase between 1890 and 1900 seems to have been affected some- what by the depression of the middle 90' s. On the whole, however, it is clear that the greater the increase in the food supply, the greater has been the increase in population. If we study the United States by decades, this seems very plain. Between 1870 and 1880 the increase in the produc- tion of cereals was very rapid, as was also the increase in the number of cattle. The value of exports of foodstuffs increased about five-fold during this period, while that of imports increased about 45 per cent. Population increased 30.1 per cent, of which about 4-5 was due to natural in- crease and the remainder to immigration. An examination ' In Appendix B will be found the rate of increase of population, the rate of natural increase, the rate of increase of cereals, the rate of increase of cattle, the rate of increase of exports and imports, and the number of emigrants or immigrants for the principal countries studied above. ' See explanation in Appendix A. ' Cf. supra, chap. vi. 459] THE GROWTH OF POPULATION 115 of the rates of increase of these same things in later dec- ades shows that in the United States population does in- crease rapidly when the food supply increases rapidly and when the rate of increase of food slackens the population does not increase so rapidly/ It can, of course, be shown that at any time of very rapid increase in the production of foodstuffs the popula- tion of any given country does not at once fill up the gap between its numbers and the rapidly receding barrier. But this is no argument against Malthusianism, because the sur- plus of food goes to increase the supply of food in some of the older industrial countries, and thus to maintain or in- crease their rates of population increase. Or if the food surplus is not sent to foreign countries, the surplus popu- lation of these countries comes to the food, thus releasing the pressure and allowing the remaining population to expand until the equilibrium is again established. There can be no doubt that this has been the situation in the United States. A rapid increase in the staple foodstuffs, a rapid increase in the growth of population, a rapid in- crease in quantity of foodstuffs exported and in the num- ber of immigrants coming to this country to stay, all go together. More will be said later of the effects upon the countries from which these immigrants come. The vital question to us is whether the United States can keep up its rate of increase indefinitely and still offer the good conditions of life which it does at the present time. The exports of foodstuffs from the United States decreased 32.3 per cent in value during the last decade, while its im- ports increased 41.3 per cent. This indicates that the United States is rapidly approaching the point where it will not be a self-supporting nation. It may be objected that iC/. Fig. i, p. III. Il6 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [460 this is only a temporary condition due to rather poor crops in 19 10. This is not the case, however. From 1910 to 1912 the value of imports of foodstuffs into the United States increased 30.6 per cent, while that of exports in- creased but 13.4 per cent, and the total value of imports of foodstuffs exceeded the total value of exports/ This was not the case in 19 13, but we shall see later that this is to be regarded as a serious situation. If one thinks that the imports and exports should be expressed in amounts rather than in value, a reasonable approximation can be made by calculating the percentage of the increase which is due to rise in prices by the use of the index numbers in Chapter III. No endeavor is made here to reduce them to amounts, because it is the tendency which is the important thing in this study, and this can be seen clearly in the increase in value. Therecan bg^no doubt that the days of exporting immense quantities of cereals are over for the United States. It is true that the foods imported at the present time are largely luxuries. But how long will this be the case? — -- If we turn to Russia we find that a rapid increase in production of food has also been accompanied by a rapid increase Jn population. The chief difference between the United States and Russia, in this respect, lies in the fact that the increase of population in Russia is almost entirely due to natural increase, while immigration is an important factor in the United States. The rates of increase of popu- lation for Russia given here are rather misleading, because the census periods are not decades as in most other coun- tries. The increase between 1880 and 1890, which as given here is very large, is really for a period of about twenty years, and so should be reduced to about 14.0 per ^Statistical Abstract, no. 35, pp. 448, 486. 46 1 ] THE GROWTH OF POPULATION 117 cent. That for 1900 is for ten years and is correct as it stands, while the last one is for a period of thirteen )rears. For a ten-year period it should be reduced to about 17.0 per cent. With these corrections made, we see that Russia has a high rate of increase of population throughout the period covered by these data. At the same time the rate of increase of cereals has been very high, with the excep- tioir51~i5S'D;~whEn-it--w-as only a little in excess of that of the population. At this time the exports of foodstuffs re- mained practically stationary, only to increase very rapidly when the increase in production exceeded the increase of population "by a g6od margin, as in the last decade. An examination of the facts regarding Russia confirms the conclusions deduced from those regarding the United States. But in the case of Russia the exports of foodstuffs are yet far in excess of the imports, and it will probably be some time before Russia is so given over to modem in- dustrial life that she will be importing food. But with her rapid'^'a-te^ if natur al increase we cannot expect to find her remaining for long the granary of Europe as she is at pres- ent. The rapid increase in production of food in Russia has been due in large part to the more improved means of cul- tivation which are coming into use. Russia imported about 2,5oo,ood*foubres worth of agricultural machinery in 1890,^ while the imports amounted to about_^8^oo,OC)0 in 1910.'' From 1891 to 1900 the total value of agricultural machin- ery imported was 74,467,000 roubles ; in the next decade, 1901-1910, it was 239,247,000 roubles, or over 200 per cent-Tncrease-in t en ygars. Thus it is seen that modern methods of cultivation are becoming veryjmfiorta nt in r e- lation toJhe^ncreasFof food supply_in Russia. The effect 'Board of Trade, Stat. Abstract for the Principal and Other Foreign Countries, no. 29, p. 75. 'Ihid., no. 38, p. 113. Il8 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [462 of this increased capacity to produce food has been very marked on the death rate and the rate of natural increase in Russia. In 1890 the death rate was 35.8; in 1910 if was 29.8, or a decrease oF six in this period of twenty years. During the same period the rate of natural increase rose from 12.8 to 17.0, or 4.2. This has taken place at the same time that there has been a comparatively large emigration from the country.^ Besides, the majority of these emigrants have been in the middle-age groups, where the death rate is naturally low. We should expect, then, other things re- maining equal, to find a slightly incr^sed death rate among those remaining. But such is not the case. What we do find is a significant falling off in the death rate in a space of twenty years. Not all of this can be attributed to the re- lease of the pressure on food supply, it is true, but in a country where modern measures for the prevention of dis- ease are, for the most part, unknown there caxTBe^ut little of the fall in death rate attributed to causes "Bftlier than the release of pressure on the means of subsistence. 'XeFUs next~e5canmie~thF United Kingdom, a country which has not supplied its own food for a number of years. Although the data on production of cereals do not extend very far back, it seems fair to conclude, from the facts on acres of cereals, that the total production decreased quite steadily from 1880 to 1900.^ Since 1900 it has increased slightly. The rate of increase of cattle has been diminish- ing since 1890, and at no point in the period covered by these data has it equaled the increase in population. The rate of increase of population has fluctuated slightly at different periods. In i88o..thie_rate of natural increase ,was larger Jhan _at any .other time. ~During'"Se decade ^ See Russia in Appendix B. " Board of Trade, Stat. Abstract of the United Kingdom, no. 42, pp. 178-9. Data on acreage given there. 463] THE GROWTH OF POPULATION ^g 1871-80 the number of emigrants -.who went out to stay was quite large, indicating that they were finding oppor- tunitres in tfie colonies and foreign countries. In the decade 1881-90 the number of emigrants was the largest on record. Thus this large rate of natural increase seems to directly precede a period when emigration was very large. On ac- count of this large emigration the rate of increase of popu- lation in 1890 was lower than at any other time in the period covered by the data in this study. In the decade 1891 to 1900 emigration was greatly checked, due to the rather dull times then prevalent. During this time the rate of in- crease^5f~p"cpalation rose from 8.16 per cent to 9.87 per cent, or 1. 7 1 per cent, only to fall off again when conditions became more favorable for emigration. Coincident with these movements of the population we find the move- ments of rise or fall in the rate of increase of foodstuffs. E. g., in 1890 we find a relatively low rate of increase of population, the actual production of cereals was greater than in 1900 by 8.7 per cent, and there was a falling- off in value of both exports and imports of food stuffs. This does not indicate a falling off in quantity, however, for the index number for wholesale prices of foodstuffs was 100.8 in 1880 (on the base loo.o in the year 1871) and only 80.6 in 1890.^ Therefore, although there was a falling off in value of foodstuffs imported of 4.0 per cent between 1880 and 1890, there was probably an increase in amount approximating 15.0 per cent. Between 1890 and 1900, when the rate of increase of population was raised 1.71 per cent, the production of ..cereals decreased and the rate of increase of cattle diminished, but the imports of foodstuffs rose 24.9 per cent in value, and this is less than the rate of increase in amount because the index number for ^Wholesale and Retail Prices, Report to the House of Commons, 1903, p. xxxiv. I20 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [464 wholesale prices of food fell from 80.6 in 1890 to 74.9 in 1900 (on the base loo.o in the year 1871)/ In the next decade we find a smaller rise in the rate of population growth accompanied by a large amount of emi- gration and a slower increase in the value of imports, the amount of which is still further diminished because of the increase in prices.^ But we also find that the home produc- tion of cereals increased slightly, which would cause the imports of these to increase at a slower rate.* It may be objected that no account has been taken of the exports of foodstuffs from the United Kingdom and that these per- centages show a higher rate of increase than do the imports during the last decade. But an examination of the exports of food from the United Kingdom * shows that they are very small as compared with the imports, and consist chiefly of articles of food imported and reshipped, or imported, manufactured and then reshipped. For these reasons the exports of food from the United Kingdom can be elimi- nated from consideration without materially affecting the validity of the statements made about the increase in food supply. The above considerations show that there can be no doubt that an increase in the food supply of the United Kingdom has meant an increase in its population. We have summarized here in brief form the facts re^ garding the growth in population and food supply for three countries with somewhat different characteristics, i. The United States, a country whose agricultural development has proceeded more rapidly than that of any other in the world, and which still has great agricultural possibilities; '^ Wholesale and Retail Prices, loc. cit. ^'jCf. supra, p. 47. ' Cf. infra, Appendix C. * Cf. infra. Appendix C. 465] THE GROWTH OF POPULATION 121 a country where the population has increased by leaps and bounds, and yet has supplied an immense quantity of the staples of food to some of the older European nations; but a country in which we even now find the imports of food increasing very rapidly because of the great develop- ment of the non-agricultural industries which has taken place at the expense of its agricultural development. 2. Russia, a country which has recently entered upon an era of great agricultural development and of which the possi- bilities m'fh'is dir&tion are great, probably as great as those of the United States; a country in which the population is increasing rapidly at the_present time and in which the rate of natural increase has risen rapidly in the last two decades; a country which is exporting large quantities of the staples of food and imports but small quantities owing to the vast predominance of agriculture over other kinds of industry. 3. The United Kingdom, a country which has long depended upon other countries for much of its food; a country in which population increases at a mod- erate rate and very largely by natural increase; a country from which the exports of food are negligible and of which the imports are growing steadily because of the increased population and the decline of the practice of agriculture. Each of these types shows us an increase in food supply and an increase in population. Where we find a rapid in- crease in food supply we- also find a rapid inprease in popu- lation, where the increase in food is slow the increase in population is slow. We see this from decade to decade in each-country, and these facts will be confirmed when we come to consider the increase in food and population in some of the other countries. There is one country which stands in a class by itself and which should be examined in making a study of this sort. France has had a practically stationary population 122 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [466 for forty years, and it has been but slightly afifected by emigration and immigration. An examination of the same data as in the case of the other countries shows that the production of fopiLin France has increased more rapidly thaii .jiQpulatiQrL.5ince 1880, and that the food imported is also increasing more rapidly than the food exported, and exceeds it in amount in the last decade. On the whole, it is clear from comparing France with these other countries that the amount of food consumed per capita has increased more rapidly there than in any other country, with the possible exception of the United States. That it has not been accompanied by a "greater increase-oi^ population is a unique phenomenon. The reasons for this are not clear. Theire are economic -motives in the background, but it will require a careful psychological study of the French people in order to ascertain the way in which these economic motives are affecting the attitude of the different classes towards offspring. At a later point we shall take account of the economic effects of a stationary population accom- panied by a growing food supply. The United States, the United Kingdom, and Russia represent the types of country which are important in the western world. It is comparatively easy to classify other countries as resembling rather closely one of these three. Germany represents a stage midway between the United States and the United Kingdom, but on the whole approach- ing the United Kingdom more closely. It is sending out emigrants, its imports of foodstuffs are enormous, and although the exports have increased more rapidly than im- ports in the last decade, yet these are insignificant in com- parison with the imports and represent to some extent imports which are exported, as is the case in the United Kingdom. Most of the countries of western Europe are of the type of the United Kingdom. In these countries the 467] THE GROWTH OF POPULATION 123 population shows a moderately high and steady rate of in- crease, and also of natural increase; there is a slow and diminishing rate of increase in the production of cereals and cattle, a tendency to throw off a portion of their popu- lations by emigration, and a growing dependence upon for- eign countries for their food. Similar to Russia are the newer countries which are either being settled by Europeans for the first time or those which though settled for some time have been thinly populated and have not yet fully adopted the modem meth- ods of agricultural production. These countries, without exception, show a high rate of increase of population (in some countries due in part to immigration), a high rate of natural increase of population, a high rate of increase in production of foodstuffs, and a large excess of exports of foodstuffs over imports. Australia, New Zealand and Ar- gentina are of this type, The countries of southeastern Europe resemble Russia more closely than they do either the United States or the United Kingdom, although they do not have the agricultural possibilities of Russia and are not large exporters of food. For these reasons they do not show such a rapid increase in their own populations. The fact which stands out most clearly regarding Italy is that its rate of natural increase has risen over 50.0 per cent since 1870. This has come about through the falling of the death rate from 30.2 in 1870 to 21.1 in 19 10. It is clear that the rise in the rate of natural increase be- ginning about 1890 has been accompanied by a large amount of emigration, especially in the last decade. Of course, many of these emigrants return to Italy, but it in- dicates that many Italians are finding conditions easier in other countries and by migrating are making conditions in Italy more favorable for those who remain behind. A 124 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [468 consequence of this, as we have seen, is a rapid falling-off in the death rate. This produces a higher rate of natural increase. This falling-off in the death rate is the more noteworthy when we consider the fact that almost all the emigrants are men and women in the age groups where the death rate is low. This means that the age groups in Italy are slightly out of a normal equilibrium, having more old people and children than they should have. There are fewer children being bom, it is true, but the size of the families has not decreased. It appears from the data given here that there has been a small but constant decline in the production of cereals in Italy until the last decade, when the increase of cereals was almost_ double that of- popula- tion. This decrease is not so significant when we take into account the large and steady increase in the supply of meat which took place at the same time.^ In Italy, too, we find that fruits and vegetables are a much larger part of the agricultural production than in almost any other country of Europe. But the supply of food in Italy has increased slowly, and as a consequence we find the population of Italy increasing more slowly than in the other countries of Europe with the exception of Spain. But in this last dec- ade, when it is very clear that the increase in production of food has been very substantial and emigration has been very large, we find the highest rate of natural increase and the lowest death rate of any period covered by our study. It is clear, then, that when the pressure on food has been removed somewhat the population of Italy has increased more rapidly than when the pressure was more severe, and because the rate of increase of food supply has been slower than in most of the other countries, the rate of increase of the population of Italy has been slower than that of most of the other countries. 1 Cf. supra, p. 69. 469] THE GROWTH OF POPULATION 125 In Hungary we find the situation quite similar to that of Italy. The imports and exports of foodstuffs are not large and may be left out of account. The increase of population has been moderately large for the last thirty years but has diminished somewhat since the number of emigrants has been rapidly increasing. Between 1900 and 1910 the rate of increase diminished about 2 per cent while the number of emigrants increased about three-fold.^ The rate of nat- ural increase has been high since 1880 when the movement of emigrants began. It is well worth noting, too, that in 1890 and 1900 when the increase in the production of cereals and cattle was high in Himgary the rate of popu- lation increase was higher than between 1900 and 1910 when the rate of increase of cereals and cattle diminished. This diminishing of the rate of increase of cereals and cattle was also accompanied by a very large increase in emigration. An examination of the data of the other European coun- tries confirms the conclusions already obtained. In almost all of them some of the population begins to emigrate, and the rate of natural increase rises and stays high while the emigrants are leaving the country in large numbers. At a time when emigration from a given country is high the rate of increase of its population is lowered somewhat, and the rate of increase of cereals and cattle tends to slacken. But when emigration slackens, as in the northern and west- ern European countries between 1890 and 1900, the popu- lation increases slightly faster than at the earlier period. In most of the European countries the more favorable conditions in the new world following 1900 have brought a renewal of emigration and a small falling-off in the rate at which their populations increased. But throughout, the ' Austria included. 126 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [470 rate of natural increase has remained high, with a tendency to be higher at the times emigration was larger. When we turn to the southern and eastern countries of Europe, where the standards of living are decidedly lower than in northern and western Europe, we find that from 1880 to 1890 the emigration was just beginning to assume significance/ In the decade 1890-1900, when the emigra- tion of northern Europeans fell off a great deal, we find a very rapid increase in the numbers of Italians, Russians, Austrians and Hungarians who emigrated. At the same time we find that the death rate was materially lowered in these countries and that the rate of natural increase in the last two decades was higher than ever before. The change in the character of the emigrants from Europe in the last twenty years represents an effort to establish an equilibrium in population. The people from southeastern Europe find migration favorable to their in- terests when the northern and. -western Europeans do not. Modern migration, as all migration, has been largely a movement of population from localities where the condi- tions of life were hard to those where they were easier, or at least were thought to be easier. But at present we are able to observe the effects upon the growth of the popular tion of the country from which migration takes place and the country to which it goes with an accuracy that has been impossible heretofore. I have shown above that a rapid increase in the food supply has either raised the rate of -iKituraHncrease or has attracted large numbers of foreigners, thus bringing about a rapid increase of the population in either case. Emigration has had the effect of decreasing the pressure on food supply, and in all cases ' The numbers which came to the U. S. can be gotten from the report of the Immigration Commission. In these earlier years most of the emigrants from Europe came to the U. S. 471 ] THE GROWTH OF POPULATION 127 it has been followed by a rise in the rate of natural increase, while the rate of increase of population was lowered but little. No one denies that in earlier times, when the manner of life was more simple and harsh than at present, the growth in the food supply was the chief factor in the growth of population. But nigjiy-4Q_d«iy that there is any su^Ji jiire^t JcelatiprLietween. tbese-fcwo^^I^^ at present. In Chapter II, I have shown that some mpd-^-n economists scout the idea that the pressure jan_foeidsupply retards the growth of, popakticHT.- They think that we have passed the time when increased ,^ga3iduction of food is a very important factor in the.gro\yth oi populStton. They cite the great advances made in the last few years in the processes of production and maintain that production is increasing "so much faster than populaffon" that we need have no fear but that from now on we shall have an abun- dance of food for everyone. I cannot share this view. There are many things which point to the growing difficulty of supplying a rapidly growing population with food. The data given on Wages and Prices in Chapter III show very clearly that the problem is becoming serious. In 1900 the_purchgsing power of wages in thirty-nine prin- cipal industrial cities, in terms of the retail prices of food, was^400.2 (on the base loo.o for the years 1890-99). In 1912 this had fallen 10,85.3, or a decrease of 14.9 in twelve years. As was pointed out there, the wage data used here are for trades unions only, and probably show a greater increase than the wages of all classes of labor would show. Not all commodities have risen in price as rapidly as food- stuffs, so it would not be accurate to say that wages had fallen 15.0 per cent in general purchasing power. But it is clear that purchases of food are taking a greater pro- portion of the laborers' wages than they did a few years 128 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [472 ago. There have been many reasons put forth to account for this state of affairs, but it appears probable that one of the most important reasons is that foodstuffs are propor- tionately scarcer and the same amount of labor is not pro- ducing the surplus returns that it formerly did. The opera- tion of the law of diminishing returns will be discussed in the following chapter. It may seem that undue prominence has been given here to the conditions in the United States. But I do not think that such is the case, because in many ways the development of the United States may be regarded as typical of what we may expect to take place in other countries of great resources which areas yet largely undeveloped. Let us examine Argentina which, like the United States, is largely in the temperate zone and which has great nat- ural resources. Between 1870 and 1890 the population increased 1 19.8 per cent, and between 1890 and 1910 it in- creased 78.9 per cent. These percentages of increase ex- ceed those of the United States in the early years of the last century.^ If Argentina has, in proportion to its area, as great resources as the United States, we may look for a more rapid development of these than has taken place in the United States. The conditions are more favorable for the development of new lands to-day than they ever were before. Knowledge .of opportunities is widely diffused, the means of transportation are excellent and cheap, and capital is available for investment in quantities unheard of only a few decades ago. All of these things make it probable that the development of Argentina and other new countries will surpass even the astonishing development of the United States within the last seventy-five years. But it may be asked : Where will the people come from to colonize these ' Stat. Abstract, no. 35, p. 41. "" 473] THE GROWTH OF POPULATION 139 new lands? - As has been shown above/ the increase of population in the countries taken account of in this study- was slightly greater between 1900 and 1910 than during any- previous decade covered by these data. This means that the rate of natural increase was somewhat larger than at any other time for which we have records. It is true tliat the .-tet^^^ThayeJalllM, but the population is not increasing- more slowly. It has also been shown above that where the opportunities for the gettingof food increased rapidly, the populatioDL expanded to make use of them.'- We may expect that with the colonization of riew lands where the opportunities are good^population will expand to make use of them. Besides, we must remember that the popu- lation in which growth is going on to-day is ahnost twice as_great as it was fifty years ago.'^ Therefore, even if the old countries send forth to new lands a much smaller pro- .portion of their people, these new lands will yet be colonized very rapidly — more rapidly than the United States, in all probability. We have seen that the conditions in the United States point to the danger of population increasing so fast that food will have to be imported in large quantities. The question is, then: How long are there going to be, lands which will be in a position to furnish this food to us and to the' nations of Europe which are already relying largely on imports?.^^?'''— '— ^ " "' -.^ With the rapid colonization of the temperate latitudes, it will not be long that we can look to any foreign country for any considerable part of our food. Just as England has ceased to look to us for much of her^food, so must she cease to look to Russia, Argentina, Australia, Canada, and other countries in a comparatively short time. And this time will be made still shorter if the United States becomes 1 Cj. supra, p. 102. 2 Cf. supra, p. IQ2. 130 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIAN2SM ^^y^ a large importer. Under modem conditions no nation will long be the granary of another. It is becoming' easier for people to go to the food than to bring the food to them. The conditions which made possible the unprecedented expansion of the European peoples in the last fifty years are passing away. The agricultural development which came as a result of rapid transportation, the invention of labor-saving farm machinery, and the abundance of new and fertile lands cannot be duplicated. The system of transportation can be greatly improved, but no revolution such as came with the development of the steam engine seems likely to take place again. The efficiency of agricul- tural implements will probably be greatly increased, but they have already reached the limit of practicability for extensive farming — not because the implements might not be improved upon, but because the days of extensive farm- ing are rapidly passing as the new countries become more thickly settled. Fertile_larud-is^ no longer to be had for the asking in the United States and will soon be taken up in the other places where Europeans can -thrive. CHAPTER X The Outlook in the Light of the Evidences of the Operation of the Law of Diminishing Returns In view of the fact that the available lands of the world are being so rapidly colonized that no nation can expect to draw a large amount of food from foreign sources indefi- nitely, .the power "to produce more food from the land now under cultivation becomes of great importance. If the surplus produce which a man can glean from his land can be increased without limit, we need have no fear that popu- lation will increase too rapidly. If, on the other hand, there is good reason to believe that even now the law of dimin- ishing returns is operative in agriculture, the situation as- sumes a more serious aspect. The inquiry here regarding the operation of the law of diminishing returns will be re- stricted t outhe United ^ States. There are two reasons for doing this: (i) the agricultural situation in the United States is relatively good, and if there are any evidences of diminishing returns here we are justified in assuming that we should find still better evidences in most of the older countries and that the newer countries are rapidly approach- ing the situation of the United States; (2) the data are more available and can be more easily verified. « evidences of diminishing returns in agriculture In the decade 1900-1910 the value of all farm property rose from about 20.5 billions of dollars to about 41 billions 475] ' 131 132 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [475 of dollars, or, to be exact, 100.5 P^J" cent.^ In the same period the number of farms increased from 5,737,372 to 6,361,502, or 10.9 per cent/ The average acreage of farms fell from 146.2 acres to 138,1 acres, or 5.5 per cent; ' but the improved acreage per farm rose from 72.2 acres to 75.2 acres, or 4.1 per cent.* During this same period the rural population increased from 44,384,930 to 49,348,883, or 1 1.2 per cent." The increase in number of farms (10.9 per cent) and in the rural population (11.2 per cent) is almost identical. Each farm, according to census defini- tion, has a farm operator.* With an operator on each farm and the rural population increasing just slightly faster than the number of farms, it seems a reasonable conclusion that the labor bestowed on each acre of farm land was very nearly the same in 1910 eis in 1900. I f therejva s any difference it would seem to be in- the. bestowal of more labor per acieja.. JQIP Jhan in 1900, because the number of- farms under 30 acres increased 24.5 per cent during the decade,' while the total number of farms increased but 10.9 per cent. It is also probable that in the last decade there was less work not connected directly with the tilling of land for the rural population to do than ever before. The growing concentration of industry lias left the rural population almost nothing to do except to tend the farm. Not only has the home industry gone to the cities, but much of the time of the farmer, and the dweller in the small towns which are classed as rural, which was formerly takMi up with^variooiS- repairs, fence-building, et cetera, can now be devoted to the better care of crops and cattle. The manufacture of machines with interchangeable parts, of ' Thirteenth Census, Abstract, p. 265. ' Ihid., loc. cit. ' Ibid., loc. cit. *Ibid., loc. cit. ^Ibid., p. 55. '^Ibid., p. 265. ''Ibid., p. 303. 477] L^W OF DIMINISHING RETURNS 133 patent devices to facilitate various kinds of work, and the buying of ready-made goods, have all left the farmer freer to give his attention to his crops and cattle. In view of these changes, it seems to me to be a conservative state- ment to say that the labor time per acre of farm land has at any rate not diminished even though the proportion of the rural population in towns of less than 2,500 inhabitants has increased somewhat. During this same period the value of all farm property per acre in farms increased from $24.37 to $46.64, or 91.4 per cent.^ The question is then : With the same or slightly greater amount of labor time per acre of farm lands and an in- crease in total capital of 91.4 per cent per acre, what was the increase in production per acre? It may be objected that putting the question in this form assumes the in- crease in value of land to be a cause of increased pro- duction rather than to be a result of the increased value of products. In order to do away with this objection we will take only working capital, which includes—im— plements, machines, and domestic animals. The working capitaf in 1900 was $4.56 per acre, and in 1910 it was $7.04, or an increase of 54.3 per cent.'' The question may now be put in this form : The labor time per acre remaining the same or increasing but slightly, and the working capital increasing 54.3 per cent, what has been the increased product per acre? This question can be .answered in part by taking the average acreage production of some of the chief crops for a series of years. The Crap Reporter for February, 1913, gives a series of diagrams representing the acreage production of some of the chief crops. From these diagrams the following percentages have been ob- tained: between 1900 and 1910 the increase per acre in ' Thirteenth Census, Abstract, p. 265. ^ Ibid., p. 281. 134 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [478 production of corn was 6.1 per cent; wheat, 7.5 per cent; oats, 9.1 per cent, and potatoes, 7.7 per cent/ Thus, in spite of the very rapid increase in capital, the acreage production of cereals increases but slowly. Part of this increase of capital on the farms is due, however, to the general high level of prices and not to the actual increase in the quan- tity and quality of the means of production. The general level of prices of commodities rose from 110.5 in 1900 to 131.6 in 1910.^ This means that 19.0 per cent of the in- crease in capital ' was due to rise in prices and does not represent an increase in the quantity or quality of the means of production. 19.0 per cent of 54.3 per cent equals 10.3 per cent, and if this be subtracted from 54.3 per cent we have 44.0 per cent, which should represent the actual increase in the quantity and quality of the means of pro- duction. It may still be objected that cattle are included in these means of production and that they should not be. But they are included in both years and allowance has been made for the rise in price, so this objection is not valid. Moreover, the price of metals and implements was 120.5 in 1900 and 128.5 i" 1910.* or an increase of 8.0, which is 6.6 per cent increase between 1900 and 19 10. This is only ' These figures are obtained by taking the average yield for ten years ending with the year given. Thus the yield given for 1900 is the ten year average 1891-1900, and that for 1910 the ten year average 1901-1910. " Statistical Abstract, no. 35, p. 576. ' It should be noted that the difference between index numbers for given years does not represent the absolute increase or decrease in percentage between these numbers, but only the increase or decrease on the basis of the given index numbers. E. g. an increase of lo.o in index numbers would represent an increase of 11.1%, if the increase were from 90.0 to loo.o. ^Statistical Abstract, no. 35, p. 577. 479] LAW OP DIMINISHING RETURNS 135 about one-third of the increase in the price of commodities as a whole. Therefore, when allowance is made for the increase in price of all commodities, as was done above, it tends to make the increase in the quantity and quality of the means of agricultural production appear less than it really is. There is good reason to believe, too, that farm machinery has increased less in price than much other machinery. Besides, the increase in the value of imple- ments-and machinery used on farms in 1910 was 54.8 per cent instead of 54.3 per cent when livestock are included. '^ Now, if we take 19.0 per cent of this we get 10.4 per cent, which leaves 44.4 per cent as the rate of increase of the instruments of production exclusive of livestock. But the difference between this and the rate when livestock are in- cluded is only 0.4 per cent, which is too small to be of consequence. From the above it appears that the acreage production of cereal and potato crops increased at rates varying from 6.1 per cent to 9.1 per cent during the decade 1900- 1 910. We will suppose that the average increase was 8.0 per cent, which is a little higher than actually took place. The use of this percentage will make the statements which follow all the more conservative. During the same period the labor time bestowed on an acre remained almost the same or increased but little, and the instruments of production (livestock included) in- creased 44.a per cent in quantity and quality. This shows that it has required a large increase in the instruments of production to bring about a small increase in acreage pro- duction when the labor time per acre remains practically stationary and when some new land of inferior quality is coming into cultivation. But perhaps this is a perfectly * Thirteenth Census, Abstract, p. 265. 136 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [480 normal state of affairs, and we shall find that the working capital per acre has been increasing at this rate regularly in recent years. Let us examine the same data for the preceding decade, then, before we make deductions from these facts. The instruments of production (livestock not included) per acre of farm lands increased 12.6 per cent between 1890 and 1900.^ This might be slightly raised by the fact that the level of prices for all commodities fell 2. i per cent from 1890 to 1900.^ But the price of imp>lements and machinery rose about i.o per cent-* during this time, so that the increase of 12.6 per cent would be a maximum increase. If, however, we include livestock on farms in the means of production the rate of increase between 1890 and 1900 is only 1.5 per cent.* Livestock should be in- cluded, for during this decade cattle increased in number but 2.0 per cent while horses increased in number ii.o per cent. Thus the chief increase in livestock in the decade 1 890- 1 900 was in animals used directly in cultivation, as was also the case in the decade 1900-1910, when cattle in- creased only 3.0 per cent in numbers while horses increased 13.4 per cent.° In the same period, 1890-1900, the com, wheat, potato, and oats crops showed an average increase in acreage production of about 9.0 per cent (actually a little over i.o per cent higher than for the decade 1900- 1910).* During this same period, also, the number of farms increased 25.6 per cent and the number of acres per farm increased about 7.0 per cent,'' while the rural popu- ' Thirteenth Census, Abstract, p. 281. ^Statistical Abstract, no. 35, p. 576. 3 Ibid., no. 3S, p. 577- * Thirteenth Census, Abstract, p. 281. = Cf. supra, p. 65. • Dep't of Agriculture, Crop Reporter, Feb., 1913. '' Thirteenth Census, Abstract, p. 281. 48iJ LAW OF DIMINISHING RETURNS 137 lation increased only 12.3 per cent.^ This would indicate that some of the labor on the farms in 1890 had gone to the cities by 1900. The people who moved to the cities did in the factories there some of the work which had been done on the farms in the earlier period, thus leaving the farmer freer to devote his time and thought to the cultivation of his fields and the care of his cattle. It seems quite likely that the actual labor time per acre was low- ered considerably in the earlier stages of the movement of population from the country to the city. It would seem, then, in view of the slow increase in rural population during this decade (1890- 1900) in comparison with the rapid increase in number of farms — the increase in num- ber of farms being about twice that of the njral popula- tion — that in all probability the labor time per acre culti- vated was less in 1900 than in 1890. When we come to contrast these two decades we find that they are alike in only one respect, viz., that during both of them the acreage j^roduction o_f potatoes and cereals increased. In the earlier period the amount of labor time per acre probably d^reased, while in the later period it re- mained about stationary. In the earlier period the value of the means of production (livestock included) increased about 1.5 per cent, and 12.6 per cent if we do not include livestock. In the later period they increased 44.0 per cent whether livestock are included or not. In all cases due allowance has been made for the variations in prices, so that these percentages should represent the actual increase in quantity and quality of the means of production. As said above, the greatest increase in livestock was in horses. We should, therefore, use the percentages with livestock included in order to get a fair picture of the changes which are taking place. 1 Thirteenth Census, Abstract, p. 55- 138 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [482 In view of these differences, it seems impossible not to conclude that the law of diminishing returns has com- menced to operate strongly in the agriculture of the United States. It cannot be urged against this conclu- sion that the seasons were more favorable in the earlier period than in the later, for such was not the case. The conditions between 1900-1910 were generally better than they were in the earlier period, as will be recalled by those who were familiar with them in the middle west during both decades. The chief difference is that in the earlier decade there was still some land of excellent quality coming into cultivation, while in the later decade much of the land which was being brought into use was of a decidedly in- ferior quality. With the adding of poorer and poorer land to the farms of the nation we should expect that the cost of production of a given quantity of produce- would increase, and these data bear out this expectation. When there is an abundance of good land, a small increase (about 1.5 per cent between 1890 and 1900) in the instruments of pro- duction^ will not only m^e up fop a decrease of labor time per acre, but it will also increase the aversTge acreage pro- duction" during a decade in which there are several bad seasons. But when the land coming under cultivation is of an inferior quality, it takes the same amount of labor time per acre and a large increase in the means of production to increase the acreage production at a slightly slower rate. There can be no doubt that each year land is being used for crops which was regarded as useless,only a few years ago. At present this land must be cultivated in an extensive manner in order to make it profitable. This means that a large amount of capital is required and that farms shall be large; e. g., in North Dakota the farms increased in size from 277.4 acres in 1890 to 382.3 in 1910, and the value of. machinery and implements (livestock not included) from 483] LAtV OF DIMINISHING RETURNS i^g $241 to $590 per farm/ The same is true in varying de- grees of most of the other states in the western part of the Mississippi valley and of those farther west.^ This means that there are vast areas which are yielding comparatively small returns, and thus the average is kept low. For this reason some people would say that the percentages of in- crease in acreage yield given above are too low and do not represent the actual rate at which acreage increase in pro- duction is taking place. But there are several reasons why this is not the case. In the first place, we must take into account this poorer land as well as the more fertile when we are trying to ascertain the prospects for future development. Some of the better land may produce an increased acreage yield of 20 per cent or more in the space of a few years with a rather small increase, in the implements of production, but there are also poorer lands which will not yield more than two or three per cent increase in the same length of time with a large increase in the efficiency of the means of cultivation. For this reason the average increase in acreage production is the fair measure of what has taken place and the fair basis of any estimates of what may take place. In the second place, there seems to have been a ten- dency to exaggerate the favorableness of the agricultural conditions in the United States on the part of the late ad- ministration of the Department of Agriculture. To what extent this operated it is impossible to say, but if one were to estimate the average increase from the census reports the conditions appear much less favorable than the data used here indicate. E. g., according to the census reports, not since 1890 has the production of cereals increased as ' Thirteenth Census, Bidletm: Agriculture, No. Dakota. ^Ibid., other states. I40 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [484 fast as the acreage. This indicates that there was actually a decrease in acreage production in the last two decades.^ But it can be fairly urged against this conclusion that the census years are not always t3rpical years and any attempt at an average must be based upon the estimates by the De- partment of Agriculture which we have already used. It might also be urged that the rate of increase in acre- age production of cereals is not a proper measure of the rate of increase in acreage production of other articles of food. There is some force to this objection, but not enough to make it of much importance. The fact is that cereals and meat are yet the staples of diet in the western world. An examination of the tables in Chapter VII and Appen- dix C, showing the imports and exports of foodstuffs, indicates that the imports of grain and meat in the older countries are very large, and they do not seem to be losing their relative importance. Of course, the imports of tea, coffee, spices, nuts and fruit are large, but only the last two of these have sufficient food values to make it likely that they could supplant cereals and meat. When we inquire how large a part fruit is filling in the diet of a nation, we cannot but conclude that it is not supplanting the staple articles of diet among any considerable part of the population. We saw in Chapter VI that the fruits and nuts of the United States are increasing quite rapidly, especially the subtropical fruits, but we also saw that the growing concentration of various kinds of agriculture was bringing about an increasing completeness in the census returns and that the rise in prices must be considered when we are trying to- ascertain quantities from values. Even though it seems likely that the increase in production ' The census data show that there was a decrease of 1.5 bu. in the acreage production of all cereals between 1890 and 1910. See Census Reports on Agriculture for i8go, 1900, and 1910. 485] LAW OF DIMINISHING REtion of France). For the great majority of the people of the western world the pressure upon the mecms of subsistence is the determining factor in the size of the family. 2. Malthus was also correct when he said that much misery and suffering were due to the overcrowding of the ' George, ibid., p. 259. 507] SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION 163 population, and that consequently a large number of people were always in want. It is true that conditions have changed since Malthus, and in the more civilized countries of the western world fewer people die directly because of the lack pf food now than formerly. The process of star- vation is more refined. It is allowed to drag itself out over a period of years. Besides, our civilization to-day creates^tiew wants and desires, which earmaf'he satisfied by means of the present" income without crowding into close quarters and living on food of bad quality and an insufficient amount of this. There are hundreds of thou- sands o#-people in the great cities of America and Europe who satisfy the desires of display at the expense of their physjcaLsgdl-tieing. These people suffer because it is im- possible for thSn" to have enough food and at the same time to have enough of the other things of our modern life which they consider essential to give them the positions they covet in their own little worlds. They and their chil- dren suffer much from the lack of food. The death rate in the lower classes shows beyond question that they suffer because they are not able to provide themselves with the essentials of life. 3. Another conclusion which seems to me to be war- ranted is that population cannot continue-to- increase at its present xal£.jmthour being 'more„. and more subjected, to the apiual^want of food, provided- the distribution of labor between agriculture and the non-agricultural indus- tries continues in its present trend (the, tr^ndfouryi, in ^ the more highly developed countries). " Nor can a greater and greater proportion of the population be devoted to agriculture and the present rate of increase continue without checking a progressive standard of living. The non-agricultural industries are not yielding increasing re- turns in such ratio that they can furnish the necessary 164 POPULATION: A STUDY IN MALTHUSIANISM [508 material means for a progressive standard to such a rapidly increasing population. Thus whatever the direction of de- velopment, a progressive standard of life and a population increasing from 1.5 per cent to 2.0 per cent a year cannot go on together for long, in a large part of the world. Therefore, either our present standard of living must be simplified as an increasing proportion of the population becomes rural or the present rate of increase of population must be lowered. Probably both must take place in order to have a really progressive civilization. To simplify our present standards of living does not necessarily mean a lowering of them. It means rather that a good many of the things of our civilization which we consider essential to-day may be found to be merely passing phases, induced by our rapid industrial development. We have become accustomed to think of civilization and culture and progress as of necessity involving all the com- plexities of our present existence. It is open to question, however, whether much of our present complexity is not a hindrance to real culture rather than an aid. There cannot be much doubt that as people are becoming more educated they are becoming more self-contained, and they begin to see that the way to get the most out of life is to put the most into it, and not to surround themselves with all the luxuries and baubles they can afford. But it is doubtful whether even such a simplification of life of the people of the more highly civilized nations will enable them to support in comparative comfort an ever- increasing proportion of their populations, or even the same proportion as at present, if it is not accompanied by a lower rate of natural increase of population. A slower rate of increase of population will give more time to adjust standards of life to surrounding conditions and to direct the course of progress; without it most of our efforts must 509] SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION jge be directed towards the more pressing of the problems of our present-day life. A greater and greater control over the growth of population is essential to a growth of rational social control. 4. If population must increase more slowly, from what part of the population should this increase come? The answer to this question involves a study of the eugenic value of the different classes of the population. Supposing the question regarding the eugenic value of classes to be answered satisfactorily, the further question arises: How can an increase in the classes which should increase be brought about, and how can the growth of population be restricted in other classes which should not increase, if the increase in population is not proceeding in a wholly satis- factory way at the present time? These questions are proposed here not because any an- swer is to be given, but to show the way in which the population question presents itself to me at the close of this study. "A Study in Malthusianism " is merely a nec- essary preliminary to a further study along the lines sug- gested here. If population is increasing more rapidly than it can survive, then the questions about which we are par- ticularly concerned are questions of selection. What is the present process of selection? Is it weeding out the really unfit? Are the better stocks dying out? What deter- mines which stocks shall survive, supposing the action of natural selection shall be mitigated or entirely counteracted, as seems likely to happen ? The answer to these questions involves a further study of population from a different point of view from the one adopted in this study. As the question appears to me, such a study as is made here furnishes a basis for this further study. I hope to make this at some future time. APPENDIX A In this appendix will be found all changes which were made in the original data in compiling the tables on crops, livestock, imports, exports, and population. Most of these changes were necessary because of the lack of data for the exact years given in the tables. A few other changes were made where the data for a given year were not typical. These changes are very few, however, as can be seen from this appendix. The changes made are given separately for each country. UNITED STATES Crops. All data from the census are for the year preceding the census, e. g. 1859, 1869, ^t'^- The data from the reports of the Department of Agriculture are for the census years. All data for wheat are from the census reports. The data for 1 9 10 for all other crops are from the census reports. The data for the other years for maize, oats, barley, and rye are from the reports of the Department of Agriculture and can be found in the Statistical Abstract of the United States (any volume after the given year). The data for pulse and potatoes are from the census reports. The reason that the census re- ports are not followed in all cases is that the situation of our agriculture appears less favorable if they are followed than if the reports of the Department of Agriculture are followed. I desired to leave no room for the criticism that data were used in this study which would make the situation of our agriculture appear as unfavorable as possible. I have tried rather to make the situation of agriculture appear as favorable as possible. Livestock. These data are taken from the census reports in all cases. Allowance has been made for the change in the date of taking the census. 166 [Sii 51 1 J APPENDIX A 167 Imports and Exports. No changes. Population. No changes. UNITED KINGDOM Crops. No changes. Livestock. No changes. Imports and Exports. No changes. Population. These data are for the years 1861, 1871, etc. CANADA Crops. No changes. Livestock. No changes. Imports and Exports. The data given here for 1870 are for 1872. No data prior to that time. Population. These data are for the years 1871, 1881, etc. NEW ZEALAND Crops. The data given here for 1910 are for 1908 no later data being available. Livestock. No changes. Imports cmd Exports. No changes. Population. These data are for 1881, 1891, etc. INDIA Crops. The data given here for 1890 are for 1893. Livestock. The data given here for 1890 are for 1893. Imports and Exports. No changes. Population. The data given here are for the years 1891, 1901, etc. AUSTRALIA Crops. No changes. Livestock. No changes. Imports and Exports. No changes. Population. These data are for the years 1881, 1891, etc. RUSSIA (in EUROPE) Crops. The data given , here for 1890 include those for Poland for 1892 as no data for Poland are available for 1890. l68 APPENDIX A [512 The acreage data given here for 1890 are for 1887. The data (both acreage and production) given here for 1880 are for 1879 and those given for 1870 are for 1872. Data for Poland are lacking before 1890. Livestock. The data given here for 1890 are for 1888, and those given for 1880 are for 1882. Imports and Exports. No changes. Population, The censuses in Russia have not been regular; the data given here for 1910 are estimated, the data for 1900 are in the census for 1897, those given for 1890 are for 1885, those given for 1880 are for 1867 and those given for 1870 are for 1850. RUSSIA (in ASIA) Crops. The data given here for 1900 are for 1901. Livestock. No changes. No other data given. NORWAY Crops. Data given here for 1880 and 1870 are for 1875 and 1865 respectively. Livestock. Data given here for 1880 and 1870 are for 1875 and 1865 respectively. Population. Data given here for 1880 and 1870 are for 1875 and 1865 respectively. Imports and Exports. No changes. SWEDEN No changes. DENMARK Crops. The data on acreage for 1910 are for 1907. No changes in data on production. Data on both acreage and production given here for 1900 are for 1901. The data given here for acreage for 1890 are for 1888, those for production in 1890 are not changed. The data on both acreage and produc- tion given here for 1880 are for 1881 and those given for 1870 are for 1876. 513] APPENDIX A 165 Livestock. The data given here for 1910 are for 1909, those given for 1900 are for 1903, those given for 1890 are for 1893, those given for 1880 are for 1881, and those given for 1870 are for 1871. Imports and Exports. No changes. Population. This is estimated for 1910. GERMANY Crops. No changes. Livestock. The data given here for 1910 are for 1907, those given for 1890 are for 1892, those given for 1880 are for 1883, those given for 1870 are for 1873, and those given for 1860- are for 1862. Imports and Exports. The data given here for 1870 are- for 1872. Population. No changes. NETHERLANDS Crops. The data given here for 1870 are for 1873. Livestock. No changes. Imports and Exports. No changes. Population. The data given here are for the years 1859,. 1869, etc. BELGIUM Crops. The data given here for 1870 and i860 are for 1866 and 1856 respectively. Livestock. The data given here for 1910 are for 1909, those given for 1900 are for 1901, those given for 1890 are for 1895, those given for 1870 are for 1866, and those given for i860 are for 1856. Imports and Exports. No changes. Population. The data given here for 1880 are for 1879. FRANCE Crops. The data given here for 1870 are for 1873. Livestock. The data given here for 1910 are for 1909, and those given for 1870 are for 1875. i;o APPENDIX A [514 Imports and Exports. No changes. Population. The data given here ane for 1871, 1881, etc. ITALY Crops. The data given here for 1900 are for 1895, those given for 1880 are an average of the years 1876 and 1881,, and those given for 1870 are for 1874. Livestock. The data given here for 1910 are for 1908. There are no data available between 1882 and 1908 so those given here for 1900 and 1890 are estimates based on the as- sumption that the rate of increase is constant. The data given here for 1880 are for 1881, and those given for 1870 are for 1874. Imports and Exports. No changes. Population. These data are for the years 1871, 1881, etc. AUSTRIA Crops. The data given here for 1870 are for 1874. Livestock. The data given here for 1870 are for 1869. Imports and Exports. No changes. Population. The data given here for 1870 are for 1869. HUNGARY Crops. The data given here for 1870 are for 1875. Livestock. The data given here for 1910 are for 1909, those given for 1900 are for 1895, and those given for 1890 are esti- mated on the basis of the total increase between 1880 and 1895. Imports and Exports. No changes. (See Austria.) Population. The data given here for 1870 are for 1869. ROUMANIA Crops. No changes. Livestock. The data given here for 1880 are for 1884. Imports and Exports. The data given here for 1910 are for 1909, and those given for 1880 are for 1883. Population. The data given here for 1910, 1900, 1890 are official estimates as no censuses were taken for those years. 515] APPENDIX A I7J BULGARIA Crops. The data given here for 1900 are for 1906. These are the earliest data available. Livestock. The data given here for 1910 are for 1905, and those given for 1890 are for 1892. Imports and Exports. No changes. Population. The data given here for 1890 are an average of the data for 1893 and 1888 as there was no census in 1890. The data given here for 1880 are for 1881. ALGERIA Crops. The data given here for 1900 are for 1906. Livestock. The data given here for 1900 are for 1901 and those given for 1890 are for 1897. Imports and Exports. Not included in this study. Population. Not included in this study. URUGUAY Crops. The data given here for 1900 are for 1905. Livestock. The data given here for 1910 are for 1908 and those given for 1890 are for 1897. Imports and Exports. The data given here for 1910 are for 1909. Population. The data given here for 1910 are for 1908, those given for 1890 are for 1891, and are an official estimate. Those given for 1880 are for 1879 and those given for 1870 are an estimate based on the rate of increase between i860 and 1879. ARGENTINA Crops. The data given here for 1900 are for 1907. Th^re are no earlier data. Livestock. The data given here for 1900 are for 1895 and those given for 1890 are for 1888. Imports and Exports. No changes. Population. The data given here for 1910 are taken from Leroy-Beaulieu, La Question de la population, p. 135. The data given for 1890 are for 1895 and those given for 1870 are for 1869. 1-2 APPENDIX A [516 CHILE Crops. The data given here for 1900 are for 1907. Livestock. The data given here for 1900 are for 1906. Imports and Exports. The data given here for 1910 are for 1909. Population. The data given here for 19 10, 1900, and 1870 are official estimates. Those given for 1880 and 1890 are for 187s and 1885 respectively. SPAIN Crops. The data given here for 1900 are for 1907. Livestock. The data given here for 1900 are for 1906, those given for 1890 are for 1891, those given for 1880 are estimated, and those given for 1870 are for 1865. Imports and Exports. No changes. Population. The data given here for 1890 are for 1887, those given for 1880 are for 1877, and those given for 1870 are for 1871. JAPAN Crops. No changes. Livestock. The data given here for 1890 are for 1891. Imports and Exports. The data given here for 1910 are for 1909 and those for 1880 are for 1882. Population. The data given here for 1890 are for 1891 and those given for 1870 are for 1872. The data for 1880 are estimated by the author from the rate of increase. No census of Japan has ever been taken. These data are all official esti- mates except as mentioned above. APPENDIX B The percentages of increase of population, the rates of ■natural increase, the percentages of increase or decrease in the production of cereals and cattle, the percentages of increase or decrease in the value of imports and exports of foodstuffs, and the number of emigrants or immigrants for the United States and the principal countries of Europe are brought together in this table. The reason for doing this is to make the verifica- tion of some of the statements in the text easier for the reader. United States 1910 igoo 1890 1880 1870 i860 ■% of increase in population . . 21.0 20.7 25.5 30.1 22.6 35.6 Rate of natural increase 13.3 16.8 18.S 24.2 16.7 % of increase in cereals 21.4 5.9 29.2 64.7 % of increase in cattle 30 2.0 43.0 50.8 —10.9 44- 1 %. of increase in value of exports —32-3 52-8 —22.3 395.2 82.6 %. of increase in value of imports 41.3 —i 1.7 19.8 4S.3 67.8 Immigrants (net) (thousands). 5,863 2,459 3,498 2,250 1,854 2,079 United Kingdom % of increase in population . . 9.07 9.87 8.16 10.80 8.84 Rate of natural increase 10.5 10.7 10.9 12.9 12.2 -% of increase in cereals i.S —8.7 decreasing % of increase in cattle 2.7 6.1 9.3 6.8 •% of increase in value of exports 41.0 13-2 — 1-9 23.5 65.0 % of increase in value of imports 17.1 24.9 —4.0 65.4 30.0 Emigrants (net) (thousands).. 1,481 725 1,729 832 517] 173 i88o 1870 4-3 —3.4 2.5 1.7 193 0.7 • -"•3 174 APPENDIX B [518 France 1910 1900 1890 1880 1870 i860 % of increase in population . . 1.6 1.6 1.8 Rate- of natural increase 0.4 i.l 0.4 % of increase in cereals 5.7 — 57 7-i % of increase in cattle — i.S 7.0 18.4 % of increase in value of exports 11.6 — lo.i 28.2 8.8 %. of increase in value of imports 72-5 —43-3 — iS-7 147-8 Germany % of increase in population . . 15.8 13.8 9.2 12.5 6.6 Rate of natural increase 13.3 14.9 12.4 12.1 13.1 % of increase in cereals 11.4 40.0 15.6 % of increase in cattle 8.9 7.8 11.2 00.0 5.1 % of increase in value of exports 44.6 9.9 — 16.3 44.7 % of increase in value of imports 39.9 26.2 11.2 24.7 Emigrants (landed in U. S.) (thousands) 342 508 1,391 709 787 Russia in Exjrope % of increase in population . . 234 15.5 29.3 8.0 Rate of natural increase 17.0 17.0 12.8 %. of increase in cereals 31.3 17.2 26.5 — o.i % of increase in cattle — 6.4 30.0 15.8 11.3 % of increase in value of exports 130.S 1.7 54.7 42.7 % of increase in value of imports 64.9 38.7 —37.2 154.0 Emigrants (landed in the U. S.) (thousands) 1,597 612 265 49 Austria % of increase in population . . 9.2 9.4 7.9 9.5 Rate of natural increase 10.8 11.9 8.8 7.9 " 8.3 % of increase in cereals 35.9 — 6.6 14.7 — 3.3 % of increase in cattle — 3.6 lo.o 0.7 15.6 % of increase in value of exports —26.1 — lo.S 22.7 % of increase in value of imports — 13-I 45-9 — 29-S 519] APPENDIX B J J,. Hungary 1 1910 1900 1890 1880 1870 i860 % of increase in population . . 8.3 10.2 10.9 1.5 Rate of natural increase 11.2 11.7 9.3 n.o 6.2 Jo of increase in cereals 11.6 16.0 25.6 % of increase in cattle 6.1 10.4 14,8 0.6 Emigrants (for Austria also) (thousands) 2,017 671 444 74 Italy % of increase in population 2 . . 6.8 6.3 7.3 6.2 23.0 Rate of natural increase 11.2 10.7 10.7 7.7 7.2 % of increase in cereals 12.9 — ^2.6 ^ — 4.6 — j.y % of increase in cattle 12.7 lo.o 4.7 36.7 % of increase in value of exports 75.5 36.9 ^22.5 33.5 fo of increase in value of imports 127.2 — 8.9 54.8 — 5.6 limigrants (number returning not given) (thousamds) 5,531 1,487 990 119 Construction of Graphs on Pages hi and 112 I shall illustrate the method of construction of the graphs on p. Ill by showing how the curve for the growth of popu- lation of the United States was plotted. If we take the data on population and find the logarithms of the numbers, we get the following results: i860, 7.49748; 1870, 7.58602; 1880, 7.70027; 1890, 779893; 1900, 7.88076; 1910, 7-96365- The base line on this graph represents the log. for i860, viz., 7.49748. The distance from the base line to the line repre- senting the growth of population is determined by the differ- ence between the logarithms of the population in i860 and in each of the following decades. E. g., the difference between the logs, for i860 and 1870 is .089 (there is no need to secure iThe imports and exports of Austria and Hungary are not given separately. ^ These percentages and rates represent the increase from one decade to the next.T e. g., the percentages for 1910 represent the increase be- tween 1900 and 1 910. ^ The minus ( — ) sign denotes a decrease. 176 APPENDIX B [520 the difference to more than three places, because a more minute differencec ould not be plotted on such graphs as must be used here.) The difference between the logs, for i860 and 1880, i860 and 1890, et cetera, are respectively, .203, .301, .383, .466. The scale on which these differences are plotted is as follows : the difference between the logs, for i860 and 1910 is .466. On the graph the first figure to the right of the decimal is expressed in centimeters, the second in millimeters, and the third in fractions of a millimeter, .6 of a millimeter in this case. Thus the distance of the line representing the growth of population in 1910 from the base in i860 should be 4 centi- meters, 6.6 millimeters. The differences between the logs, for the other items in these graphs are plotted in the same way. In every case the log. for the earliest data obtainable is made the base and the curve represents the diffenence between this log. and those of the succeeding decades. Of course, the base for each item plotted in these graphs is different, but inasmuch as the purpose is to compare the percentage increases and de- creases of these various items for the period of time covered by this study, the use of the same base line is not necessary. The same results would have been secured by plotting the percentages of increase or decrease of these same items. These percentages are given above in this appendix. There is one point yet which should be emphasized. The increases or decreases represented in these curves are always on the basis of the log. For the earliest data obtainable, and in no case are absolute numbers plotted. Thus, when one sees that the curve representing exports of the United King- dom rises more rapidly than the curve representing imports between 1900 and 1910, he is not to conclude that the actual quantity of foodstuffs imported was less than that exported, but merely that on the base of i860 the relative increase of ex- ports was greater than the relative increase of imports. In the case of imports and exports it will be well to refer to the absolute amounts of these, the data for which are given in Appendix C. It is not so important to do this for the other items plotted in these graphs. (See note on p. 112.) 521] APPENDIX B J 77 Logarithms from which the Graphs on Pages hi and 112 are Con- structed United States — 1910 1900 1890 1880 1870 i860 Population 7-96365 7.88076 779893 770027 7-S86o2 7.49748 Cattle 773231 771933 771063 7-S5S34 7-37694 7-40858 Cereals 9-3S430 9-26998 9.24502 9.13354 8.91698 Imports (value) .. 8.51362 8.36342 8.41797 8.33925 8.17667 7.95187 Exports (value) . . 8.56703 8.73672 8.55242 8.66219 7.96741 7.70578 United Kingdom — Population 7-65533 7-6i7S2 7-57669 7.54258 7.49803 7.46120 Cattle 7.07041 7-05881 7.03302 6.99436 6.96544 Cereals 8.09377 8.08600 8.15655 Imports value) . . 8.41095 8.34223 8.24576 8.26364 8.04493 7.93120 Exports (value) . . 7.59040 7.41814 7.36436 7.37273 7.28103 7.06333 Germany — Population 7.81238 7.74850 7-69232 7.65408 7.60293 7.57530 Cattle 7-31450 7.27738 7.24428 7.19811 7.19783 7.17609 Cereals 8.70157 8.65475 8.50853 8.44498 Imports (value) . . 9.39217 9.24625 9.14520 9.09968 9.00389 Exports (value) . . 8.87448 8.71433 8.67302 8.75051 8.58995 France — Population 7.S9770 7.59062 7.58365 7.57600 7.55751 7.57264 Cattle 7.15503 7-16197 7-13226 7.05843 7.05500 7.10755 Cereals 8.56015 8.53832 8.56384 8.53403 8.45743 Imports (value) . . 9.15014 8.91339 9.15987 9.23401 8.83998 Exports (value) . . 8.93359 8.88604 8.93217 8.82406 8.78746 Italy- Population 7-53995 7-51121 7-48473 7-45423 7-42830 7-33786 Cattle 6.79232 6.74036 6.69897 6.67870 6.54270 Cereals 8.16997 8.11727 8.12840 8.17898 8.18441 Imports (value) .. 8.81941 8.46300 8.50365 8.31366 8.33866 Exports (value) . . 8.78760 8.54332 8.40688 8.51746 8.39199 Russiar- Population 8.11727 8.02572 7.96313 7-85138 7.81776 Cattle 7.52608 7-55522 7.44122 7-37731 7-33041 Cereals 9.11S94 8.99167 8.92505 8.82295 8.81591 Imports (value) . . 8.28058 8.06333 7-92143 8.12352 771858 Exports (value) . . 8.97708 8.64437 8.60713 8.41764 8.26316 APPENDIX C Table I. — Acreage and Production ^ of Wheat, 1860-1910 (Expressed in thousands) Country 1910 1900 1890 1880 1870 i860 United States — Acres 44.263 52.589 33,S8o 35.430 18,993 12,000 % increase . . —15.8 " 56-6 —5-2 86.5 49.4 Production .. 410,024 395.120 281,024 27S.690 172,648 103,863 % increase . . 3.8 40.6 1.9 59.6 66^ Jnited Kingdom — Acres 1,858 1,901 2,484 3,066 3,774 %. increase . . — ^2.2 — ^23.4 — 18.9 — 23.0 Production .. 34,974 33.571 46.964 % increase . . 4.1 — ^28.5 Canada — Acres 9,258 4,224 2,724 2,342 % increase . . 119.1 55.0 16.3 Production .. 83,610 33.333 25,232 19.410 %. increase . . 150.8 32.1 29.9 New Zealand — Acres 252 208 301 325 78 % increase . . 21. i — ^30.8 — 7.3 316.6 Production .. 5,422 4,034 3,537 5,035 % increase . . 34.4 14.0 29.7 808.8 India — Acres 30,565 23,865 28,717 % increase Production % increase 28.0 —16.8 263,207 163,662 167,710 60.8 — 2.4 ^- The British statute acre is used throughout and the quantity is given in cwts. This applies to Tables I- VII in this appendix. 2 The minus ( — ) sign indicates a decrease in all tables. 178 [522 523] APPENDIX B 179 Table L- —Continued iOuntry igio igco 1890 1880 1870 i860 Australia — Acres 7.372 5,667 3,236 % increase . . 30.0 75.1 Production .. S8,779 29,882 16,759 % increase . . 96.7 78.3 Russia in Europe- Acres 62,604 41,289 30,104 28,604 28,743 % increase . . S1.6 37.1 5.2 —0.5 Production .. 373,515 180,994 142,143 102,660 97,606 % increase . . 106.3 27-3 38.4 S-i Russia in Asia — Acres 17,894 6,416 % increase . . 178.8 Production .. 107,274 35,905 % increase . . 198.7 Norway — Acres 12 13 II II 12 12 % increase . . -7& 18.0 -8.5 Production .. 178 201 158 170 162 % increase . . — 11.4 27.2 —7.0 4.9 -3.6 Sweden- Acres 241 192 174 150 % increase . . 25.5 II.O 16.0 Production .. 4,520 3,143 2,369 1,880 % increase . . 43-8 32.6 26.0 Denmark — Acres 100 32 120 127 140 %, increase . . 212.S —73.3 —5.5 —9.3 Production .. 2,708 560 2,416 1,845 2,756 % increase . . 383.5 —76.8 30.9 —330 (jermany — Acres 4,842 S,o6i 4,842 4,484 fa increase . . —4.3 4.5 7-9 Production .. 75,988 75,589 55,708 46,152 % increase . . 0.5 35.6 20.7 Netherlands- — Acres 13s 158 210 229 232 % increase . . —14.5 ^24.7 -8.3 — 1.2 Production .. 2,663 2,797 3,249 3,535 4,062 % increase . . —4.7 —13.9 —8.0 —12.9 i8o APPENDIX C [524 Country 1910 Belgium — Acres 380 %, increase . . — 8.8 Production .. 6,667 % increase . . — 9.7 France — Acres 16,189 % increase . . — ^4.5 Production .. 204,100 % increajse . . 4.7 Italy- Acres 11,754 % increase . . 3.6 Production .. 82,158 % increase . . 3.1 Austria — Acres 2,998 % increase . . 13.9 Production . . 34,914 %. increase . . 39.3 Htmgary — Acres 9,371 % increase . . 6.0 Production . . 97,oio % increase . . 6.0 Roumania — Acres 4,812 % increase . . 22.5 Production .. 66,427 % increase . . 95.7 Bulgaria — Acres 2,689 % increase . . 28.0 Production .. 22,626 % increase . . 33.0 Algeria — Acres 3,553 % increase . . 18.4 Production .. 19,213 %, increase . . 13.0 Table I. — Continued 1900 1890 1880 1870 417 —47.8 7,384 —44.5 800 17.3 13,324 22.1 682 -^•5 10,908 24.2 700 6.0 8.777 10. 1 16,954 —2.8 194.951 —1.8 17,442 2.7 198,699 16.2 i6,97& —1-3 170,891 19.9 17,207 142,522 11,345 4.2 79,626 i.i 10,886 -6.9 78,720 -8.9 11,700 1.2 86,502 —1.7 11,551 88,017 2,631 —7.1 25,053 —5.0 2,834 15.4 26,389 8.5 2,455 30 24,306 —1-7 2,382 24.733 8,803 196 91,489 3.2 7,357 23.5 88,654 86.6 5,956 5-3 47.509 62.2 5,654 29,288 3,926 5.2 33,935 5.6 3,729 32,128 2,100 17,000 3,000 17,000 i860 525] APPENDIX C j3, Table I. — Concluded Country 1910 19CX) i8go 1880 1870 i860 Uruguay — Acres 636 % increase . . Production .. 3,199 % increase . . Argentina — Acres 14,416 13,400 % increase . . 7.5 Production .. 95,271 92,800 %. increase . . 2.6 Chile- Acres 1,09s 1,000 % increase . . 9.5 Production .. 13,746 9,000 % increase . . 52.7 Spain — Acres 9,409 8,400 % increase . . 12.0 Production .. 73,613 67,200 % increase . . 9.5 Japan — Acres 1,165 1,148 % increase . . 1.4 Production .. 14,125 12,987 % increase . . 8.7 Total- Acres 257,863 214,739 149.551 "2,539 89,466 12,672 % increase . .. 20.0 43.5 32.8 25.7 Production ..2,155,931 1,607,216 1,185,183 796,493 57i,i25 ii3,797' % increase . . 34.1 35.6 48.4 39-4 Table II. — Acreage and Production of Maize and Mixed Corn, 1860-1910 (Expressed in thousands) Country 1910 1900 1890 1880 1870 i860 United States- Acres 98,383 82,109 78,320 60,743 32,716 % increase . . 19.8 4.8 28.9 85.6 Production .. 1,429,226 1,163,761 1,183,219 860,980 543,i70 % mcrease . . 22.8 —1.6 37.4 58-5 l82 APPENDIX C [526 Table II. — Continued Country 1910 1900 1890 1880 1870 i860 United Kingdom. No data. Canada — Acres 3S3 361 229 %, increase . . — ^2.2 57.6 Production .. 14,433 I4.490 S.978 fo increase . . — 0.4 142.3 New Zealand. No data. India. No data. Australia — Acres 41S 344 3°! %, increase . . 20.6 14.2 Production .. 7,304 5,239 4,851 %. increase . . 39.4 7-9 Russia in Europe — Acres 3,631 3>4io m88 1,361 %, increase . . 6.4 129.1 9.3 Production .. 38,471 34,000 13,557 10,794 % increase . . 13.1 150.7 26.1 Russia in Asia — Acres 792 456 % increase . . 73.6 Production .. 7,237 3,799 % increase . . 90.4 Norway — Acres 15 I9 35 5i 48 % increase . . — 20.8 —45-7 —31 -3 6.2 Production .. 351 420 807 1,109 i>07i % increase . . — 16.4 — 47.9 — 27.2 3.5 Sweden — Acres 400 320 260 160 140 % increase . . 25.0 23.0 62.5 14.6 Production .. 8,625 6,343 5,139 3,112 2,740 % increase . . 35.9 23.4 65.1 13.5 Denmark — Acres 418 352 333 208 165 % increase . . 18.7 5.7 60.0 26.0 Production .. 9,540 7,286 6,763 2,096 2,387 % increase . . 30.9 j.y 222.6 — 12.1 527] APPENDIX C 18- Table II. — Continued Country 1910 1900 1890 1880 1870 i860 Germany. No data. Netherlands. No data. Belgium. No data. France — Acres 1,527 1,832 2,083 % increase . . — 16.6 — 12.0 — ^21.5 Production .. 16,017 I7,S43 20,898 % increase . . — 8.7 — 16.0 — 19.5 Italy- Acres 4,003 4.834 4,722 % increase . . — 17.2 2.3 11. 4 Production .. 30,829 39.445 4i,95S %, increase . . 28.8 — 5.9 ^-15.6 Austria — Acres 976 884 972 % increase . . 10.4 — 9.0 10.2 Production .. 11,564 9,38? 11,659 % increase . . 23.2 — 19.5 13.5 Hungary — Acres 7,212 6,742 5,151 % increase . . 6.9 30.8 0.7 Production .. 108,560 83,678 54,370 % increase . . 29.7 53.9 — 7.8 Roumania — Acres 4,906 5,027 4,400 % increase . . — 2.4 14.2 Production .. 58,017 47,597 34,717 %, increase . . 21.8 37.0 Bulgaria — Acres 1,746 1,451 % increase . . 20.3 Production .. 16,154 15.935 % increase . . 13.7 Algeria- Acres 35 38 % increase . . — 7.8 Production .. 277 %, increase . . 1.9 2.654 2,863 -7.8 25,973 24,148 7.5 4.235 4,190 i.o 49.716 49,388 —0.7 882 797 10.6 10,267 9,708 5-7 5,114 4.856 5.3 58,973 48.125 22.5 l84 APPENDIX C Tabi£ II. — Concluded Country 1910 1900 1890 1880 1870 Uruguay — Acres 635 410 % increase . . S4.8 Production .. 1,904 1,613 % increase . . 18.0 Argentina — Acres 7.422 6,717 % increase . . 10.4 Production .. 87,570 68,009 % increase . . 28.7 Chile- Acres 67 63 % increase . . 6.0 Production .. 89S 672 % increase . . 33.1 Spain — Acres 1,121 1,109 % increase . . l.o Production .. 13,679 12,682 % increase . . 7.8 Japan — Acres 131 % increase . . Production .. 2,074 % increase . . Total- Acres 134,188 116,478 94,694 75.408 45,775 % increase . . 15.2 23.0 25.5 64.7 Production .. 1,882,727 1,532,167 1,383,913 1,023,020 680,737 % increase . . 22.8 10.7 35.2 50.2 Table III. — Acreage and Production of Oats, 1870-1910 (Expressed W: thousands) ■Country 1910 1900 1890 1880 1870 United States — Acres 35,iS9 26,341 27,462 16,797 9,746 % increase . . 33.4 — 4.0 63.4 72.3 Production .. 322,281 254,777 240,485 199.723 87,357 % increase . . 26.5 5.9 20.4 128.6 [528 i860 529] ■Country 1910 United Kingdom — Acres 4.116 % increase . . — 0.7 Production .. 58,012 % increase . . 6.4 Canada — Acres % increase . . Production .. % increase . . 9.03s 68.3 95,281 90s New Zealand — Acres 407 % increase . . — 9.5 Production .. 6,239 %, increase . . — 0.9 India. No data. Australia — Acres % increase . . Production . %, increase . 677 44.0 5.091 28.1 Russia in Europe- Acres 42,906 Jo increase . . 7.2 Production . . 275,209 %. increase . . 214 Russia in Asia — Acres 5,725 % increase . . 739.0 Production .. 31,542 % increase . . 828.2 Norway — Acres 263 %, increase . . 9.0 Production .. 3,352 % increase . . 5.4 APPENDIX C Table III. — Continued igoo 1890 1880 4,146 4,138 4,192 0.2 1.2 —5.2 54,495 56,527 57,000 —3.5 —0.8 —1.6 5,367 4,128 3,500 30.0 17.9 49,997 27,230 23,263 83.6 17.0 i8s 450 —30.0 6,298 91.8 241 —0.4 3,153 0.4 346 60.0 3,282 44-3 215 76.2 2,274 81.1 470 271 73.0 3,974 1,933 105.5 242 8.0 3,139 6.9 224 1.8 2,936 11.4 1870 4,425 58,000 122 1,255 32,8 40,003 37,25s 34,190 7-3 8.9 4-2 226,511 186,746 171,761 179,396 21.2 8.7 — ^4.2 689 3.398 220 2,634 i86 APPENDIX C [530 Country Sweden — Acres % increase . . Production % increase Denmark — Acres .... % increase . . Production % increase Germany — Acres %, increase Production % increase Netherlands- Acres % increase . Production . % increase . Belgium — Acres % increase . Production . % increase . . France — Acres '% increase Production % increase . . Italy- Acres % increase . , Production %. increase . Austria — Acres % increase . Production % increase . 1910 1.956 —3-9 22,757 2.7 993 -6.9 12,894 8.5 10,594 4.0 155,468 1 1.4 348 7.0 5,768 4.3 617 — i-S 11,561 3.3 9,760 0.2 92,991 16.0 1.243 6.1 8,162 32.9 4,528 —3-5 40,471 20.4 Table III 1900 2,037 2.9 22,153 —5-2 1,067 1-5 11,882 0.9 10,183 5-5 139,559 44-3 325 14.4 5,531 30.6 —14.9 11,190 —62.5 9,735 4.2 80,141 -5.6 1,171 4.6 6,138 0.9 4,691 1-3 33,597 0.8 — Continued 1890 1880 1.978 1,700 16.3 6.2 23,377 15,452 51.2 21.4 1,050 17.1 11,769 27.1 9,643 4.2 96,692 16.2 284 —2.3 4,234 — 2.1 736 19.4 29,879 12.4 9,338 8.8 84,974 10.2 1,119 19.1 6,080 — 0.2 4,628 4-3 33,333 12.3 911 5-4 9,256 —3-1 9,246 83,204 291 15.0 4,327 16.4 616 8.6 26,572 137 8,577 91 77,100 25.1 939 -4.6 6,090 —4.7 4,435 1-9 29,657 16.4 1870 1,600 12,719 864 9,554 253 3,715 567 23,364 7,861 61,612 985 6,392 4,349 25,463 531] APPENDIX C Table III. — Continued 187 Country Hungary- Acres % increase Production % increase Roumania- Acres Jo increase Production Jo increase Bulgaria — Acres % increase Production Jo, increase Algeria — Acres % increase Production Jo increase Uruguay- Acres % increase Production % increase Argentina- Acres % increase Production Ja increase Chile- Acres % increase Production Jo increase Spain — Acres Jo. increase Production' % increase 1910 2,880 7-7 21,342 — S-S 1. 103 74.8 9,480 240.6 489 4.2 3.083 —91 434 37-3 3,291 22.8 29 169 1,414 38.2 11,630 19.9 61 33-2 970 86.8 I,2SS S.8 8,289 70.7 1900 2,672 8.9 22,604 32.6 631 430 2,783 14.7 469 3,394 316 2,679 954 9,697 90 S19 1,186 1890 2,453 —2.4 17,040 —13-5 441 2,42s 1880 2,514 3-5 19.719 177.7 1870 2,429 7,100 l88 APPENDIX C [532 Table III. — Concluded Country 1910 1900 1890 1880 1870 Japan — Acres 97 % increase . . Production .. 1,217 % increase . . Total- Acres 136,089 113,862 105,512 88,347 66,240 % increase . . 19.5 7-9 i9-4 33-3 Production .. 1,206,549 959,336 829,145 728,344 478,561 % increase . . 25.7 15.7 13.8 52.1 Table IV. — Acreage and Production of Barley, i870-i9ia (Expressed in thousands) Country 1910 1900 1890 1880 1870 United States^— Acres 7,698 2,878 3,221 1,681 1,109 % increase . . 167.4 — i-i 91-6 Si-S Production .. 83,194 35,223 37,6oo 10,336 12,621 % increase . . 136.3 —6.3 94.4 53.2 United Kingdom — Acres 1,889 2,172 2,301 2,695 2,624 % increase . . — 12.5 — ^5.6 14.6 2.7 Production .. 31,207 33,930 39,971 42,000 40,000 % increase . . — 8.0 — 15.1 Canada — Acres 1,704 872 881 848 % increase . . 95.4 — i.o 3.8 Production .. 21,317 11,000 8,290 8,338 % increase . . 93.8 32.6 — 0.6 New Zealand — Acres 49 35 32 47 23 %, increase . . 40.0 9.3 — 31.9 104.0 Production .. 959 509 375 604 286 % increase . . 88.4 35.7 — ^37.9 iii.i India — Acres 7,840 7,593 % increase . . 3.2 Productioni .. 78,400 75,930 % increase . . 3.2 533] APPENDIX C 189 Table I V — Continued 1870 Country 1910 ipoo 1890 1880 Australia — Acres 108 98 117 % increase . . 10.2 — 16.2 Production .. 1,102 898 1,003 % increase . . 22.7 — 10.4 Russia in Europe — Acres 27.747 18,700 16,443 15,317 % increase . . 48.3 13.7 7.3 — 1.2 Production .. 193,753 87.858 87,367 59.688 % increase . . 120.5 0.6 46.3 —3-3 Russia in Asia- Acres 4.273 1.706 % increase . . 150.4 Production .. 29,320 10,974 % increase . . 1 67. 1 Norway — Acres 81 98 128 138 % increase . . —17.3 —23.4 —7-2 13.1 Production .. 1,390 1,681 2,026 2,121 % increase . . —17-3 —17.0 —4.4 14.2 Sweden — Acres 4SI 537 546 S06 % increase . . — 16.0 ^1.6 7.9 Production .. 6,427 7.093 7,721 7,066 % increase . . —9-3 —8.1 9.2 Denmark — Acres 566 694 735 718 %, increase . . —18.4 -5.6 2.3 2.5 Production .. 10,383 10,617 11.375 10,133 %. increase . . —2.2 —6.6 12.2 -7.8 Germamy — Acres 3,879 4.I2S 4.1" 4,011 % increase . . —5.9 0.3 2.4 Production .. 57,126 59,079 44.935 42,223 % increase . . —3-3 314 6.4 Netherlands- - Acres 69 94 104 117 % increase . . -26.6 -9.6 —I I.I 6.3 Production .. 1,489 2,198 1.993 2,385 % increase . . —32.2 10.2 — 16.4 54 15,521 6i,7S3 122 1.856 700 10,930 2,261 190 APPENDIX C [534 Country Belgium — Acres % increase Production % increase France — Acres % increase Production %. increase Italy- Acres % increase Production % increase Austria — Acres % increase Production % increase Himgary — Acres %, increase Production % increase Roumania- Acres % increase Production % increase Bulgaria — Acres % increase Production % increase Algeria — Acres % increase Production % increase 1910 79 —16.8 1,606 21.2 1,849 — i.i 20,857 6.4 611 —16.6 4.063 13.8 2,721 — 10.7 31.149 —7-2 2,873 7-7 23.879 —8.1 I.3S7 25.1 14,082 100.8 643 12.0 6,034 17.2 3,319 2.5 20,390 Table IV. — Continued igoo 1890 1880 95 —1.9 2,039 —3-7 1,870 —13-7 19,594 — 16.1 733 — 10.6 3,S68 —32.1 3,048 18.3 33,584 28.S 2,667 7-1 26,007 2.4 1,084 — iS-3 7,012 —1 1. 6 574 5,14s 3,236 20,394 97 —1.9 2,117 23.8 2,167 — 15.3 23,355 — 10.7 820 — 36.S 5,258 —40.4 2,576 —3-3 26,119 7-7 2,488 2.9 25,383 3-9 1,280 7,940 99 —7-5 1,709 -5.8 2,559 —7.3 26,163 2.6 1,180 2.8 8,766 -3.8 2,66s —2.4 24,243 2.0 2,417 7.8 24,425 6.5 1870 107 1,815. 2,762 25,500 1,148 9,117 2,732 23,755 2,242 22,913 535] APPENDIX C j^j Table IV. — Concluded Country 1910 1900 1890 1880 1870 Uruguay — Acres 2 3 % increase . . Production .. 11 15 % increase . . Argentina — Acres 148 231 % increase . . — ^35.9 Production .. 1,628 2,541 % increase . . — ^35.9 ■ Chile- Acres 109 137 % increase . . — 20.4 Production .. 2,037 1.607 % increase . . 26.7 Spain — Acres 3,332 3,560 % increase . . — 6.4 Production .. 32,695 22,964 % increase . . 42.3 Japan — Acres 3,176 1,579 % increase . . loi.i Production .. 36,307 21,261 % increase . . 70.7 Total- Acres 76,583 58,419 38,047 34,998 29,191 % increase . . 31.1 53.5 8.7 19.8 Production! .. 710,805 502,721 332,828 279,200 212,807 % increase . . 41.3 51.0 19.1 31.2 Table V. — Acsseage and Production of Rye and Spelt, 1870-1910. (Expressed in thousands) Country 1910 1900 1890 1880 1870 United States- Acres 2,196 i,6S9 2,171 1,870 1,346 % increase . . 32.3 —23.5 16.1 38.9 Production .. 16,531 13,419 15,915 13,703 10,229 % increase . . 23.2 — 15.6 16.1 33.9 j[^2 APPENDIX C [536 Table V. — Continued Country igio 1900 1890 1880 1870 United Kingdom. No data. Canada. No data. New Zealand. No data. India. No data. Australia. No data. Russia in Europe — Acres 69,677 7I.730 68,949 64,170 66,399 % increase . . —2.8 4.0 7-4 — ^3-3 Production .. 42S.IS5 4SI.7I9 411.698 320,317 3I5.79S Jo increase . . —5.8 9-7 28.5 1.4 Russia in Asia — Acres 2,837 700 % increase . . 305.0 Production .. 16,880 4,036 % increase . . 318.2 Norway — Acres 37 32 34 37 32 % increase . . iS-6 — 6.0 — 8.4 15.6 Production .. 504 501 530 587 49° % increase . . 0.6 —5.8 —9.7 i9-8 Sweden — Acres 992 1,015 964 937 888 % increase . . — 2.2 5.3 2.9 5.5 Production .. 12,820 14,556 12,462 10,558 9,497 % increase . . — 11.9 16.8 18.0 il.i Denmark — Acres 711 672 693 607 576 % increase . . 5.8 —3.0 14.1 5.5 Production .. 10,870 9,230 9,359 9,ii8 9,238 % increase . . 16.1 — 1.3 2.6 — 1.3 Germany — Acres 16,008 15,493 15.282 I5.S78 % increase . . 3.3 1.4 — 1.9 Production .. 214,479 177,442 125,176 107,089 % increase . . 20.8 41.7 16.8 Netherlands — Acres 549 530 504 488 495 ■% increase . . 3.5 5.1 3.2 —1.4 Production .. 8,612 7,645 6,234 S.248 S.996 ■% increase . . 12.6 22.6 18.7 — 12.4 537] Country 1910 Belgium- Acres 671 % increase . . 0.9 Production .. 11,715 % increase . . 8.9 France — Acres 2,993 % increase . . — 14.6 ii'roduction .. 29,281 % increase . . — 11.7 Italy- Acres 301 % increase . . — 10.9 Production .. 2,719 % increase . . 21. i Austria — Acres 5,104 Jo. increase . . 214 Production .. 63,031 % increase . . 99.0 Hungary- Acres 2,824 % increase . . 2.0 Production .. 25,935 % increase . . 7.6 Roumanian Acres 429 % increase . . 5.6 Production .. 4,412 % increase . . 31.8 Bulgaria- Acres 589 % increase . . 24.5 Production .. 4,700 % increase . . 21.8 Spain — Acres 2,144 % increase . . — 3.9 Production .. 14,342 % increase . . 6.0 APPENDIX C Table V. — Continued 1900 1890 1880 193 66s ^257 33,174 — I3-S 338 —31 2,245 —9-7 4.203 — iS-i 31,663 —30.1 406 —1.8 3,352 26.7 473 3,856 2,231 13,525 896 9.8 10,749 14,457 — 25.6 10.4 3.507 3.924 — 10.6 — 13.6 38.385 -8.4 349 2.477 4,953 8.8 45,322 25.8 45-4 413 2,644 816 -6.5 13,08s -0.9 4.542 -3.8 41,941 27.0 2,767 2,689 2,692 2.9 0.1 24,093 28,169 19,358 —14.4 1870 873 13,211 4,724 33,001 4,551 4,810 —5.3 36,004 45,132 — 20.2 194 APPENDIX C [538 Table V. — Concluded 1910 1900 1890 1880 1870 Total- Acres 107,962 106,421 101,821 96,288 80,142 % increase . . 1.4 4.5 5.7 20.1 Production .. 861,986 801,205 721,828 S77,oo8 442,599 % increase . . 7.5 12.4 23.5 30.6 Table VI. — Production of Beans and Pease, 1870-1910 (Expressed in thousands) Country 1910 1900 1890 1880 1870 United States — Production .. 25,032 16,307 12,757 12,359 10,405 %. increase . . 53.5 27.8 3.2 18.7 United Kingdom — Production .. 7,882 7,140 11,244 13.200 16,800 % increase . . 10.3 — ^36.5 — 14.8 — 21.4 Canada. No data. New Zealand. No data. India. No data. Australia. No data. Russia in Europe — Production .. 45,551 32,737 22,848 36,265 41,403 % increase . . 39.1 43.2 —36.9 —12.4 Russia in Asia — Production .. 884 267 % increase . . 231.1 Norway — Production .. 130 104 133 139 118 % increase . . 25.0 — ^21.8 — 4.3 17.8 Sweden — Production .. 876 1,460 1,587 i,i66 1,125 % increase . . — ^40.0 — 8.0 36.1 3.6 Denmark. No data. Germany. No data. Netherlands — Production .. 2,336 3,158 3,016 3,391 3,023 % increase . . — ^26.0 4.7 — 11.0 12.1 539] APPENDIX C Table YL— Concluded Country 1910 1900 1890 1880 1870 Belgium — Production .. 541 929 i,6g8 1,478 1,955 % increase . . — 4i-7 —45-2 i4-8 —24.4 France — Production .. 21,823 I9,3S4 20,279 20,592 20,738 % increase . . 12.7 — 4.5 — 1.5 — 0.7 Italy- Production .. 23,654 is,ii2 17,763 23,317 22,738 % increase . . 56.5 —17-3 —23.8 2.5 Austria — Production .. 7,736 8,287 7.223 8,195 7.085 fo increase . . — 6.6 14.7 — 11.8 15.6 Hungary — Production .. 4,458 2,662 1,054 706 623 % increase . . 67.4 152.5 49.2 13.3 Roumania — Production .. 789 439 485 % increase . . 79.7 — 9.4 Bulgaria — Production .. 996 88 % increase . . Algeria — Production .. 751 , 521 % increase . . 44.1 Uruguay. No data. Argentina. No data. Chile- Production .. 89s 788 % increase . . 13.5 Spain — Production .. 16,702 12,729 % increase . . 31.2 Japan — Producticin .. 128,234 118,558 % increase . . 8.1 Total- Production .. 289,270 240,640 100,087 120,808 126,013 fo increase . . 20.2 140.4 — 17.1 — 4-i 195 196 APPENDIX C [540 Table VII. — Production of Potatoes and Other Roots, 1870-1910 (Expressed in thousands) ■Country 1910 1900 1890 1880 1870 United States — Production .. 271,494 187,376 IS4.700 120,003 % increase . . 44-8 21.1 28.8 United Kingdom — Production .. 949,740 852,280 866,660 893,000 925,000 % increase . . 15.0 — 1.6 — 2.9 — ^3.5 Canada — Production .. 120,243 82,476 63,203 34f272 % increase . . 45-7 30-4 84.4 New Zealaind — Production .. 3,900 3,380 3,560 2,220 1,120 % increase . . 15.3 —5.0 60.0 98.2 India. No data. Australia — Production.. 8,000 6,400 7,380 % increase . . 25.0 — 13.2 Russia in Europe — Production .. 960,740 497.IS2 334.088 270,340 229,573 % increase . . 93.2 48.4 23.5 17.7 Russia in Asia — Production .. 18,640 5,791 % increase . . 221.8 Norway. No data. Sweden — Production .. 125,101 67,631 25,405 38,043 30,458 % ncirease . . 84.9 166.2 — ^33.2 24.9 Denmark — Production .. 180,691 167,558 59.213 14,661 % increase . . 7.8 182.9 303.8 Germany — Production .. 1,172,800 950,000 820,030 476,301 %. increase . . 23.4 15.8 72.1 Netherlands — Production .. 86,036 77.935 4I.IS9 47.II7 34.620 % increase . . 10.3 89.3 — 12.6 36.1 Belgium — Production .. 220,800 144,128 96,809 91,309 63,000 Jo. increase . . 53.2 48.8 6.0 44.9 541] APPENDIX C jc,7 Tabi^ VII.— Concluded Country 1910 1900 1890 1880 1870 France — Production .. 1,370,120 627,138 582,937 525,821 361,123 % increase . . 1 18.4 7.5 10.8 45.6 Italy- Production .. 15,000 13,820 14,785 13,861 12,000 % increase . . 8.5 —6.5 6.6 15.5 Austria — Production .. 511,660 377,085 322,848 226,259 193,260 % increase . . 35.6 16.7 42.6 17.0 Hungary — Production .. 318,540 210,936 115,809 82,644 31,261 % increase . . 51.0 82.1 40.1 164.3 Roumania — Production .. 8,142 6,364 872 % increase . . 27.9 Bulgaria — Production' .. 8,400 6,520 % increase . . 28.8 Algeria- Production .. 1,980 1,740 % increase . . 13.7 Uruguay. No data. Argentina. No data. Chile- Production .. s,68o 4,640 % increase . . 22.4 Japan — Production .. 74,740 61,191 % increase . . ii.i Total- Production .. 6,432,447 4,351,541 3,509,458 2,835,881 1,881,414 % increase . . 47.8 23.9 23.7 50.7 Table VIII. — Production of Cereals per Acre, 1860-1910 (Expressed in pounds) Cereal 1910 1900 1890 1880 1870 i860 Wheat 836 748 792 607 638 898 '^aize 1,403 1,31s 1,461 i,3S6 1,487 Oats 886 842 785 824 722 Barley 928 860 874 797 729 f^ye 798 752 700 559 552 198 APPENDIX C [542 Table IX. — Exports of Chief Articles of Food, 1860-1910 (Expressed in thousands) Country 1910 1900 1890 1880 1870 i860 United States- Total value 1 369,088 S4S.474 356,830 459,462 92,772 SO,79i 7o increase —32.3 ^ 52.8 —22.3 395.2 82.6 Animals value 17,448 43,585 33,638 15,882 1,045 i,(0 9{^ increase —59-9 29.5 111.7 15x9.8 38.4 Cattle no I39 397 395 183 28 28 % increase —64.9 0-6 116.0 563.8 Sheep no 45 126 68 209 40 % increase —64.2 85.2 —67.4 422.5 Beef products lbs 286,296 674,285 536,986 260,567 64,241 54,128 % increase —57-5 25.6 106. i 305.6 18.7 Swine products lbs 707,110 1,538,024 1,159,643 1,230,702 99,417 107,083 7o increase — 54-0 32-6 —5.8 1 137-9 — 7-i Total value of breadstuffs 133,580 262,744 154,926 288,037 72,251 26,989 % increase —49-1 69.5 —46.2 298.6 167.7 Corn bu 38,128 213,123 103,419 99,572 2,140 4,249 % increase —82.1 106.1 3.9 4552.9 —49-6 Wheat bu 87,364 186,097 I09,430 180,304 53,901 17,2131 % increase —53-1 70.i —39-3 234.5 213.1 Oats bu 2,549 45,049 15,107 766 122 % increase —94-3 198-2 1872.2 527.9 Barley bu 4,312 23,662 1,408 1,129 255 % increase —81.8 1580.5 24.7 342.7 Rye bu 242 2,382 2,281 7o increase — 89.8 4.4 Fish value 9,652 5,427 6,041 4,019 1,381 882 % increase 77-8 — lo.i 50.3 191.0 56.5 Fruits and nuts value .... 18,886 11,643 4,o6o 2,091 543 % increase 62.2 186.7 94- 1 285.0 Sugar and molasses value 8,658 3,698 3,029 3,340 662 30^ % increase 134.1 22.0 — 9.3 404.5 119.2 Vegetables value 4,207 2,853 i,357 795 59i 394 %. increase 47.4 110.2 70.6 34.5 50.0 United Kingdom — Total value " 38,945 26,195 23,143 23,594 . I9,i04 ">S7S 1 Includes articles of food only. All values for the United States expressed in dollars with (000) omitted. 2 A minus sigmi ( — ) denotes a decrease in these tables on exports and imports. * Includes alcoholic beverages and tobacco as well as articles of food. Values for the United Kingdom expressed in (£) with (000) omitted. 543] APPENDIX C 199 Table IX. — Continued Country 1910 1900 1890 i88o 1870 i860 United Kiagdom— Continued 7o increase 4i-0 i3-2 — 1.9 Meat cwts 406 566 684 % increase — ^28.2 — 17.2 41.0 Grain and flour cwts. . . . 8,022 4,912 1,496 % increase 63.3 228.3 —46.5 Rice cwts 1,777 2,565 2,820 % increase — ^30.7 — 9-0 — 20.2 Fruits value £ 1,002 848 656 837 343 261 % increase 18.1 29.2 — 21.6 liish value £ 6,412 3,697 2,298 2,085 916 577 % increase 73.4 60.8 10.2 Tea value £ 2,312 1,689 1.742 - 2,804 2,182 655 % increase 36.8 —3.0 — 37.8 S> Canada- Bacon and ham cwts. . . . 488 1,350 77 % increase —63.8 1653.2 — 39.8 Butter and cheese cwts. . . 1,857 2,196 1,107 % increase — 15.4 98.3 98.7 I Fish value i 3,150 2,157 882 % increase 46.0 144.5 — 17.2 Flour bbls 3,064 771 150 % increase 297.4 414.0 — 73.2 Fruit and berries value £ 1,151 695 % increase 65.6 Grain and pulse bu 67,166 43,802 22,262 % increase 53.3 96.7 —33.5 I Cattle and sheep no 286 665 397 % increase — 56.9 67.5 — 12.5 Potatoes bu 1,929 681 1,459 % increase 183.2 —53.3 2.2 . India- Rice cwts 39,219 32,278 34,963 % increase 21.5 — 7.6 21.0 Wheat cwts 21,011 9,704 14,320 % increase 116.5 — 32.2 — 28.0 Coffee cwts 234 291 242 % increase —19.5 20.2 —23.4 Sugar cwts 522 8gi 1,616 % increase —41.4 —44-8 333-2 "^^3, lbs 249,901 176,387 105,610 % increase 41.6 67.0 174.9 i88o 1870 23.5 65.0 485 2,800 2,600 7.6 3,537 2,222 59-1 837 343 144.0 31-4 2,085 916 127.6 S8.7 2,804 2,182 28.S 233-1 128 125 2.4 557 317 75-7 1,066 840 26.9 S6i 453 23.8 33,490 10,543 217.9 454 376 20.7 1,427 28,888 10,615 172. 1 19,901 78 316 322 —1.8 373 386 —3-3 38,406 12,754 201. 1 200 APPENDIX C [544 1870 i860 Table IX. — Continued Country 1910 1900 1890 1880 Australia — Butter lbs 87,928 44.206 % increase 98.9 Flour tons 140 70 % increase loo.o Grain bu 47.891 13.449 % increase 256.0 Meat lbs 334.725 199.950 % increase 67.4 Sugar cwts 132 170 % increase — ^22.3 Fruit value £ 323 107 fo increase 201.8 New Zealand — Butter and cheese cwts. . 808 275 35 3 % increase 193.8 685.7 Grain bu 1,782 8,929 7,727 % increase — 80.0 15.5 43.0 Meat cwts 2,631 1,889 959 % increase 39.2 96.9 Potatoes tons i 13 29 Russia — Total value roubles 948,650 411,537 404,771 % increase 130.5 1.7 54.7 Fowls roubles 12,676 8,658 % increase 46.4 Cattle, pigs and sheep no. 112 130 % increase — 13.8 Butter poods 3,479 1,190 293 % increase 192.3 306.1 87.8 Com, flour and meal poods 761,939 420,194 365,662 %. increase 81.3 14.9 71.2 Norway — Butter kilogs 1,242 1,452 % increase — 14.4 Condensed milk kilogs.... 14,298 6,628 Fish kilogs. 74,568 55,138 65,564 72,215 % increase 35.2 —15.9 —9.2 Fish hectols 1,435 1,029 936 665 1,256 5.505 554-5 IS 841 5 10 2 261,621 42.7 183,304 674 38.3 156 —7-1 487 I75-I 168 —5-0 225 177 213.513 14.1 187.105 71-5 109,05;; 545] APPENDIX C 201 Table IX. — Contimted ■Country 1910 1900 1890 1880 1870 i860 Horv/ay— Continued yo increase 39.4 9.9 40.7 —47.0 Fish kroner 10,336 3.IS9 2,528 915 738 Ji, increase 227.1 24.9 176.2 23.9 Sweden — Cattle no 33 4 36 19 14 Butter kilogs 21,842 19,17s IS,044 S,io7 S.Soo 5b increase 13.9 27.4 194.5 — 7.1 Fish kilogs 53,962 9,420 % increase 472.8 Grain kilogs 2,896 12,993 74,7i2 285,000 550,000 fo increase — 77.7 — 82.6 — 73.7 — 48.1 Cenmark — Cattle no 141 41 140 85 45 Butter kilogs 88,475 61,375 44,621 10,500 6,800 % increase 44.1 37.5 324.9 54.4 Fish kilogs 14,645 ii,iS7 18,722 % increase 31.2 — ^40.4 Grain and flour kilogs... 74,034 57,837 96,107 318,246 374,021 % increase 28.0 — 39.8 — 69.8 — 14.9 Sugar kilogs 1,522 2,524 % increase — ^39.6 Meat kilogs :. . 37,438 5,685 9,372 % increase 558.5 —39.3 Sheep and swine no 173 274 33 % increase — ^36.8 Germany — Total value mks 749.ooo 518,000 471,000 563,000 389,000 % increase 44.6 9.9 — 16.3 44.7 Cattle, sheep and swine no 56 176 426 1,946 1,719 % increase —68.1 — 58.6 —78.1 13.2 Butter kilogs 8,486 2,659 70 24,900 25,800 % increase Grain, flour and meal kilogs 2,194,531 1,031,973 1,600,000 2,340,300 2,186,000 % increase 112.6 —35-5 —31.6 7.0 Potatoes kilogs 305,023 180,814 % increase 68.6 Sugar kik)gs 710,370 1,006,465 796,400 5$i,900 26,400 % increase —29.4 26.3 58.6 202 APPENDIX C [546 Table IX. — Continued Country 1910 1900 1890 1880 1870 i860 Netherlands — Cattle, sheep and swine no 17s 128 589 S4S 5" ^fc increase 36.7 —78-2 8.0 6.6 Butter kilogs 32,866 22,S72 39.555 36,052 21,712 % increase 45-6 —42-9 9-7 66.0 Cheese kilogs 55,689 4S,9o8 30,314 28,058 29,232 % increase 21.3 5i-4 8.0 —4.0 Coffee kilogs 78,846 75,486 54,562 66,594 79,S84 % increase 4-4 38.3 —18.0 —16.3 jf'ish kilogs 176,748 107,501 88,801 % increase 64.4 21.0 Grain and flour kilogs... 2,387,159 1,453,984 758,585 380,000 71,000 % increase 66.2 89.3 99.6 435.2 BUce kilogs 224,572 90,048 41,283 33,973 18,377 % increase 149.3 nS.l 21.5 84.8 Sugar kilogs 97,187 121,554 106,801 66,500 92,701 % increase — 20.0 13.8 60.6 — 28.2 Belgium — Butter kilogs 1,592 2,620 3,554 4,607 4,733 % increase — 39.2 — 26.2 — 22.8 — 2.6 Grain kilogs 875,436 452,115 503,651 457,176 27,565 % increase 93.6 — 10.2 lo.i Meat kilogs 7,786 17,769 %, increase — 76.1 Sugar kilogs 38,407 233,254 160,302 % increase —83.5 45-5 163.6 France — Total value fr 858,200 769,200 855,400 % increase 11.6 — lO.i 28.2 Cattle, sheep and swine no 343 82 175 % increase 318.2 —53.1 16.6 Butter and cheese kilogs.. 40,466 33,870 45,274 % increase 19.4 —25.1 28.2 Fruit kilogs 102,648 20,930 84,159 %. increase 390.4 — 75.i 173.6 Grain and flour kilogs... 47,800 88,600 98,410 % increase —46.0 —9.9 —63.0 Sugar kilogs 191,904 587,063 354,854 % increase —67.3 65.4 131.1 Potatoes tons 219 198 % increase 10.6 60,791 37,488 62.1 666,965 613,100 8.8 ISO 164 -8.5 35,292 21,309 65.6 30,750 34,412 — 10.6 266,613 153,601 73-5 153,514 179,67s — I4-S 547] APPENDIX C 203 Table IX. — Continued Country 1910 1900 1890 1880 1870 Spain- Animals no 174 24s 74 671 75 fo increase — 28.9 231.0 — 88.9 794.6 Fruit and nuts kilogs. . . 597,748 334,884 187,366 4S,8oo 44,872 fo increase 78.4 78.7 309.0 2.0 Olive oil kilogs 39,3ii 32,921 14,616 13,022 6,114 % increase 19.4 125.2 12.2 112.9 Rice kilogs 4,010 9,495 % increase — 57.7 Wheat and flour kilogs.. . 762 2,201 3i,743 39,042 So,774 Jo increase — 65.3 — 93.0 — 18.6 23.1 Austria-Hungary — Total value £ 9,684 13.109 14,650 11,933 Jo increase — 26.1 — 10.5 22.7 Cattle, sheep and swine no 132 209 367 743 649 % increase — ^36.8 — ^43.0 — 50.6 14.4 Eggs kilogs 111,300 108,800 61,000 % increase 2,2 78.3 Grain kilogs 186,300 307,800 755,200 867,400 613,200 Jo, increase — ^39.4 — 59.2 — 12.9 41.4 Pulse kilogs 82,200 9S,90o 64,800 Jo increase — 14.2 47.9 Sugar kilogs 674,400 657,600 409,200 248,100 65,600 Jo increase 2.5 60.7 64.9 278.2 Italy- Total value lire 613,219 349,479 255,229 329,202 246,675 Jo increase 75.5 36.9 —22.5 33.5 Cattle no 5 47 22 55 74 % increase —89.3 113.6 —60.0 —25.6 Butter and cheese kilogs.. 30,110 18,229 Jo increase 65.1 Eggs kilogs 20,471 35,740 15,285 25,097 4,877 Jo increase —42.7 133.8 — 39-i 4I4-S Fruit kilogs 399,300 199,000 197,590 98,502 80,797 % increase 100.6 0.7 100.6 21.9 Grain kilogs 46,000 47,000 60,000 142,200 160,300 % increase — 2.1 — 21.6 — 57.8 — 11.2 Meat kilogs 11,358 11,804 7,301 6,052 4,474 7o increase —3.7 61.6 20.6 35-2 204 APPENDIX C Table IX. — Concluded Country 1910 1900 1890 1880 Italy — Continued Olive oil kilogs 28,500 22,900 37,832 S7.66o % increase 24.4 —39-4 —343 —0.3 Rice kilogs 47,6ii 46.332 28,626 76,027 % increase 2.7 61.8 —62.3 —12.2 Bulgaria- Cattle no 10 20 17 % increase — So.o 17.6 Sheep no 397 389 365 % increase 2.0 6.5 Cheese kilogs 3,217 2,246 % increase 43-2 Eggs kilogs 9,987 4,s6o % increase 119.0 Grain and flour kilogs. . . 532,620 246,309 494.654 % increase 116.2 — 50.2 Haricots kilogs 17.582 1,525 % increase 1052.9 Roumania — Cattle no 9 9 Grain and flour kilogs. . . 2,186,035 2,398,247 1,753.767 I,3I9.997 % increase — 8.8 36.7 32.8 Haricots kilogs 36,317 52,667 % increase — 31.0 Peas kilogs 9,494 1,924 % increase 393.4 Eggs kilogs 5,946 4,832 % increase 23.0 Fish kilogs 5,089 4,857 % increase 4.7 Sugar kilogs 3 7,098 Chile- Cattle no 3 4 % increase — 33.3 Sheep no. 2 5 % increase ^^.o Grain and flour kilogs. .. 155,837 3S,oi6 % increase 345.0 [548 1870 57,835 86,681 549] APPENDIX C 201 Table IX.— Concluded Country 1910 igoo i8go 1880 1870 Uruguay- Cattle no 203 61 % increase 232.7 Sleep no 267 60 fo increase 34S-o Grain and flour kilogs. . . 100,242 58,487 fo increase 7i-3 Meat kilogs 48,991 S8,i2S % increase — iS-7 Argentina- Cattle no. 90 i6o % increase — ^43.7 Sheep no 77 198 % increase — 61.1 Other animals no. 24 56 % increase — S7.i Butter kilogs 3,000 1,000 % increase 200.0 Grain and flour kilogs. . . 5,030,000 2,702,000 % increase 86.1 Meat kilogs 373,ooo 85,000 %, increase 338.8 Sugar kilogs 56,000 26,000 % increase 115.3 Japan- Rice lbs 140,231 185,820 51,320 86,778 % increase — 24.5 262.0 — 40.8 Tea lbs. 63,518 60,698 49.544 31.373 % increase 4.6 22.5 57.9 Fish value $ 3,187 1,392 % increase 128.9 2o6 APPENDIX C [550 Table X. — Imports of Chief Articles of Food, 1860-1910 (Expressed in thousands) Country 1910 1900 1890 1880 1870 i860 United States- Total value 1 $ 326,343 230,944 261,812 218,422 150,23s 89,515 % increase 4i-3 — 11-7 19-8 45-3 67.8 Animals value $ 7.840 4,53i 6,767 3,740 6,421 1,442 % increase 80.1 — 33-o 80.9 —41.7 345-2 All bread-stuffs value $. . 12,826 4,083 8,076 8,562 8,540 50 % increase 215.0 —49-4 — 5-6 0.2 Coifee lbs 871,470 787.992 499,159 446.851 235,257 200,999 % increase 10.5 57.8 11.7 89.9 17.0 Fish value ? 13.836 7,472 S.289 3,403 2,316 49a % increase 85.1 41.2 55.4 46.9 370.7 Fruits and nuts value $. . 37,424 19,264 22,428 13,271 7,417 4,805 % increase 94.2 — 14.1 69.0 78.9 54.3 Meat and dairy products value $ 11,812 2,28s 2,011 1,235 4,649 98 %. increase 516.9 13.6 62.8 — 73.4 Sugar value $ 106,349 100,251 89,735 88,752 69,828 36,399 % increase 6.0 11.7 i.i 27.1 92.3 Tea lbs 85,626 84,845 83,887 72.163 47,408 30,593 % increase 0.9 i.i 16.2 52.2 54.9 Vegetables value ? 8,273 2,935 4,455 % increase 181.8 — 34.1 United Kingdom — Total value 2 i 257,682 219,970 176,137 183,527 110,969 85,357 % increase 17.1 24.9 — 4.0 65.4 30.0 Sheep no 383 358 941 670 320 % increase 6.9 — 61.9 40.4 109.3 Cattle no 220 496 643 390 202 lOS % increase — 55.6 —22.8 64.8 93.0 92.3 Meat cwts 19,983 i7,9ii 7,129 6,352 898 588 % increase 11.5 151.2 12.2 607.3 52-7 Grain and flour cwts 203,782 195,813 155,621 134,173 74,104 56,208 % increase 4.0 25.8 15.9 81.0 31.8 Rice cwts 9,938 6,291 5,958 7,890 4,077 1,529 %. increase 57.9 5.5 —24.4 93.5 167.3 Fruits value i 10,987 9,118 8,667 6,895 2,163 1.844 %. increase 20.4 5.2 25.6 218.7 i7-3 ^ Includes articles of food only. 2 Includes tobacco and alcoholic beverages as well as articles of food. 551] APPENDIX C 207 Table X. — Continued Country 1910 1900 1890 1880 1870 i860 United Kingdom — Continued Fish value £ 4,335 3,621 2,811 1,667 768 395 . Price, ft. 50. 8. The Centralization of Administration in Ohio. By Samuel P. Orth, Ph.D. Price, $1.50. VOLUME XVII, 1903. 635 pp. Price, cloth, $4.00. 1. * Centralizing Tendencies in the Administration of Indiana. By William A. Rawlks, Ph.D. Price, $2,50. 3. Principles of Justice in Taxation. By Stephen F. Weston, Ph.D. Pric*,f2.oa. VOLUME XVIII, 1903. 753 pp. Price, cloth, $4.60. 1. The Administration ol low^a. By Harold Martin Bowman, Ph.D. Price, J1.50. 3. Turgot and the Six Edicts. By Robert P. Shepherd, Ph.D. Price, I1.50. 3. Hanover and Prussia 1795-1803. By Guv Stanton Ford, Ph.D. Price, $2.00, VOLUME XIX, 1903-1905. 588 pp. Price, cloth, $4.00. 1. Joslah Tucker, Economist. By Walter Ernest Clark, Ph.D. Price, ^1.50. S. History and Criticism of the l.abor Theory of Value in English Political Economy. By Albert C. Whitaker, Ph.D. Price, ^1.50. 3. Trade Unions and the Law in New York. By George Gorham Groat, Ph.D. Price, ^i.oo. VOLUME XX, 1904. 614 pp. Price, cloth, $3.60. I. The Office of the Justice of the Peace in England. By Charles Austin Beard, Ph.D. Price, ^i.so. 8. A History of Military Government Ju Newly Acquired Territory of the United States. By David Y. Thomas, Ph. D. Price, fi.oo. VOLUME XXI, 1904. 746 pp. Price, cloth, $4.60. 1. *Treatles, their Making and Enforcement. By Samuel B. Crandall, Ph.D. Price, ^i.so. S. The Sociology of a New York City Block. By Thomas Jesse Jones, Ph.D. Price, ^.oo. 8. Pre-Malthuslau Doctrines of Population. By Charles E. Stanghland, Ph.D. Price, ^2.58. VOLUME XXII, 1806. 520 pp. Price, cloth, $3.50; paper covers, $3.00. Tlie Historical Development ot the Pooi- La-w ol Connecticut. By Edward W. Capen, Ph.D. VOLUME XXIII, 1905. 594 pp. Price, cloth, $4.00. 1. Tlie Economics of Land Tenure In Georgia. By Enoch Marvin Banks, Ph.D. Price, Ji.oo. 3. Mistake In Contract. A Study In Comparative Jurisprudence. By Edwin C. McKeag, Ph.D. Price, $i .00. 3. Combination In the Mining Industry. By Henry R. Mussnv, Ph.D. Price, ^i.oo. 4. The English Cx'aft Guilds and the Government. By Stella Kramer, Ph.D. Price, |i.oo. VOLUME XXIV, 1905. 521pp. Price, cloth, $4.00. 1. The Place of Magic In the Intellectual History of Europe. By Lynn Thorndike, Ph.D. Price, $t.oo. 3. The Ecclesiastical Edicts of the Thoodoslan Code. By William K. Boyd, Ph.D. Price, ^i.oo. 3. *Tlie Tiaternatlonal Position of Japan as a Great Power. By Seiji G. Hishida, Ph.D. Price, J2.00. VOLUME XXV, 1906-07. 600 pp. (Sold only in Sets.) 1. 'Municipal Control of Public utilities. By O. L. Pond, Ph.D. {JVot sold separately.) a. The Budget In the American Commonwealths. By Eugene E. Agger, Ph.D. Price, $1.50. 3. The Finances of Cleveland. By Charles C. Williamson, Ph.D. Price, J2.00. VOLUME XXVI, 1907. 559 pp. Price, cloth, $4.00. 1. Trade and Currency In Early Oregon. By James H. Gilbert, Ph.D. Price, $i.oo. 5. Luther's Table TalJi. By Preserved Smith, Ph.D. Price, ^i.oo. 3. The Tobacco Industry in the United States. By Meyer Jacobstbin, Ph.D. Price, ^1.50. 4. Social Democracy and Population. By Alvan A. Tennev, Ph.D. Price, 75 cents. VOLUME XXVII, 1907. 578 pp. Price, cloth, $4.00. 1. The Economic Policy of Robert Walpole. By Norris A. Brisco, Ph.D. Price, Jt.so. 5. The United States Steel Corporation. By Abraham Berglund, Ph.D. Price, $1,50. 3. The Taxation of Corporations in Massachusetts. By Harry G. Friedman, Ph.D. Price, $1.50. VOLUME XXVIII, 1907. 664 pp. Price, cloth, $4.00. 1. DeWltt Clinton and the Origin of the Spoils System in New York. By Howard Lee McBain, Ph. D. Price, $1.50. 3. The Development of the Legislature of Colonial Virginia. By Elmer 1, Miller, Ph.D. Price, gi.50. 3. The Distribution of O'wnershlp. By Joseph Harding Underwood, Ph.D. Price, Ji.so. VOLUME XXIX, 1808. 703 pp. Price, cloth, $4.50. 1. Early Ne^r England Tow^ns. By Anne Bush MacLear, Ph.D. Price, $1.50, S. New Hampshire as a Eoyal Province. By William H. Fry, Ph.D. Piice,$3.oo. VOLUME XXX, 1808. 712 pp. Price, cloth, $4.50; paper covers, $4.00. The Province of New Jersey, 1664—1738. By Edwin P. Tanner, Ph.D. VOLUME XXXI, 1908. 575 pp. Price, cloth, $4.00. 1. Private Freight Cars and American Railroads. By L. D. H. Weld, Ph.D. Price, Ji. 50. 2. Ohio before 1850. By Robert E. Chaddock, Ph.D. Price, $1.50 8. Consanguineous Marriages in the American Population. By George P. Louis Arnek, Ph.D. Price, 75 cents. 4. Adolphe Quetelet as Statistician. By Frank H. Hankins, Ph.D. Price, ^x.as. VOLUME XXXII, 1908. 705 pp. Price, cloth, $4.50; paper covers, $4.00. The Enforcement of the Statutes of Laborers. By Bertha Haven Putnam, Ph.D. VOLUME XXXIII, 1908-1909. 635 pp. Price, cloth, $4.60. 1. Factory Legislation in Maine. By E. Stagg Whitin, A.B. Price, Ji.oo. 8. 'Psychological Interpretations of Society, , „, ^ „ . ^ By Michaei, M. Davis, Jr., Ph.D. Price, Js.oo. 8. *An Introduction to the Sources relating to the Germanic Invasions. By Carlton Huntley Hayes, Ph.D. Price, Ji.so. VOLUME XXXIV, 1909. 628 pp. Price, cloth, $4.50. 1. [89] Transportation and Industrial Derelopment In tlie Middle W^est. By William F. Gephakt, Ph.D. Price, js.o*. «. [00] Social Keform and the Reformation. „^ „ „ By Jacob Salwyn Schapibo, Ph.D. Price, f 1.35, 2. [91] Responsibility lor Crime. By Philip A. Parsons, Ph.D. Price, $1.50. VOLUME XXXV, 1909. 568 pp. Price, cloth, $4.50. 1. [9a] Tte Conflict over the Judicial Povrers In the United States to 1870. By Charles Grove Haines, Ph.D. Price, |i. 50. S. [93] A Study of the Population of Manhattan vllle. By Howard Brown Woolston, Ph.D. Price, ^1.25. 8. [94] * Divorce: A Study In Social Causation. By James P. Lichtbhbergbr, Ph.D. Price, f 1,50. VOLUME XXXVI, 1910. 542 pp. Price, cloth, $4.00. 1. [95] * Reconstruction In Texas. By Charles William Ramsdell, Ph.D. Price, $3.50. J8. [961 * Tlie Transition In "Virginia from Colony to Commomvealtli. By Charles Ramsdhll Lingley, Ph.D. Price, ^1.50, VOLUME XXXVII, 1910. 606 pp. Price, cloth, $4.50. 1. [97] Standards of Reasonableness In Local Freight Discriminations. By John Maurice Clark, Ph.D. Price, |i.a5, 2. [98] Lieeal Development in Colonial Massachusetts. By Charles J. Hilket, Ph.D. Price, $1.25. S. [99] * Social and Mental Traits of the Negro. By Howard W. Odum, Ph.D. Priae, $2.o». VOLUME XXXVIII, 1910. 463 pp. Price, cloth, $3.50. 1. [100] The Public Domain and Democracy. By Robert Tudor Hill, Ph.D. Price, $3.00. S. [101] Orsanlsmlc Theories of the State. By Francis W. Coker, Ph.D. Price, f i.|o. VOLUME XXXIX, 1910-1911. 651 pp. Price, cloth, $^50. 1. [lOS] The Making of the Balkan States. By William Smith Murray, Ph.D. Price, fx.50. 8. [103] Political History of New York State during the Period of the Civil War, By Sidney David Brummer, Ph. D. Price, 3.00. VOLUME XL, 1911. 633 pp. Price, cloth, $4.50. 1. [104] A Survey of Constitutional Development In China. By Hawkling L. Yen, Ph D. Price, li.i». ». [105] Ohio Politics during the Civil War Period. By George H. Porter, Ph.D. Price, $1.75. 3. [106] The Territorial Basis of Government under the State Constitutions. By Alprbd Zantzingbr Reed, Ph.D. Price, Ji. 75. VOLUME XLI, 1911. 514 pp. Price, cloth, $3.50; paper covers, $3.00. [107] New Jersey as a Royal Province. By Edgar Jacob Fisher, Ph. D. VOLUME XLII, 1911. 400 pp. Price, cloth, $3.00; paper covers, $2.50. [108] Attitude of American Courts In Labor Cases. By Gborgb Gorham Groat, Ph.D. VOLUME XLHI, 1911. 633 pp. Price, cloth, $4.50. I. [109] *Industrlal Causes of Congestion of Population In New York City. By Edward Ewing Pratt, Ph.D. Price, $2.00. a. [110] Education and the Mores. By F. Stuart Chapin, Ph.D. Price. 75 cents. 3. [Ill] The British Consuls in the Confederacy. ' By MiLLEDGB L. Bonham, Jr., Ph.D. Price, {2,0*. VOLUMES XLIV and XLV, 1911. 745 pp. Price for the two volumes, cloth, $6.00 ; paper covers, $5.00. [118 and 113] The Economic Principles of Confucius and his School. By Chen Huan-Chang, Ph.D. VOLUME XL VI, 1911-1912. 623 pp. Price, cloth, $4.50. 1. r 114] The Ricardian Socialists. Bv Esther Lowenthal PhD Price. $i.o« 3. [115] Ibrahim Pasha, Grand Vizier of Suleiman, the Magnificent. o r,,„Ti.o, J. ,. . „ By He3Ter Donaldson Jenkins, Ph.D. Price, ti.oo. 3. [116] *SyndIcalismlnrrance. . r »i • -rr , ^„, By Louis Levike, Ph.D. Second edition, 1914. Price, $1.50. 4. [117] A Hoosler Village. Bv Newell Lekoy Sims, PhD. Price. »i.5o. VOLUME XLVII, 1912. 544 pp. Price, cloth, $4.00. 1. [118] Tbe Politics of Michigan, 1865-1878. " By Habbiettk M. Dilla, Ph.D. Price, $2.00. S. [1 19] *Tlie United States Beet Sugar Industry and the TarlM. Bt Roy G. Blakby, Jb>h!D. Price, $2.00. VOLUME XLVIH, 1912. 493 pp. Price, cloth, $4.00. 1. [120] Isldor of Seville. By Erkbst Breh>ut. Pli. D. Price, »2.oo. 8. [131] Progress and TTnllormltyln Chlld-Iiabor lieglslatlon. By William Fielding Ugburn, Ph.D. Price, ^1.75. VOLUME XLIX, 1912. 592 pp. Price, cloth, $4.50. 1. [188] British Radicalism 1791-1797. By Walteb Phelps Hall. Price,»2.oo. 8. [183] A Comparative Study of the Xiaw of Corporations. By Arthur K. K-vhh, Ph.D. Price, Ji.so. 8. [134] *The Negro at Wort In New York City. By Gbokgb E. Haynes, Ph.D. Price.fi.is. VOLUME L, 1911. 481 pp. Price, cloth, $4.00. i. [185] *The Spirit of Chinese Philanthropy. By Yai Yue Tso, Ph.D. Price. $i.oo. 8. [186] *The Allen In China. By Vi. Kyuih Wbluhgtoh Koo, Ph.D. Price, $2-50. VOLUME LI, 1912. 4to. Atlas. Price: cloth, $1.50; paper covers, $1.00. 1. [187] The Sale of I.ilauor in the South. By Leonard S. Blakev, Ph.D. VOLUIOE Ln, 1912. 489 pp. Price, cloth, $4.00. 1. [138] 'Provincial and Liocal Taxation In Canada. By Solomon Vinbbebg, Ph.D. Price, f i-ss. 8. [139] *The Distribution of Incomes. By Frank Hatch Stbbichtoff, Ph.D. Price, {1.50. . 8. [130] *The Finances of Vermont. By Fbbdebick A. Wood. Ph.D. Price, f i.oa. VOLUME LIII, 1913. 789 pp. Price, cloth, $4.50; paper, $4.00. [131] The Civil WarandBeconstrnctlon In Florida. By W. W. Davis, Ph.D. VOLUME LIV, 1913. 604 pp. Price, cloth, $4.50. 1. [138] 'Privileges and Immunities of Citizens of the XTulted States, By Arnold Jouhsoh Lien, Ph.D. Price, ji cents. ' 8. [183] The Supreme Court and Unconstitutional Ijeglslatlon. By Blaine Free moors, Ph.D, Price, ji.oo. 8. 1134] 'Indian Slavery In Colonial Times within the Present Xilmlts of the United States. By Almon Wheeler Lausbr, Ph.D. Price,$3.oo. VOLUME LV, 1913, 665 pp. Price, cloth, $4,50. 1. [136] *A Political History of the State of New Torb. By HoHBR A. Stbbbihs, Ph.D. Price, {4.00. 8. [136] 'The Early Persecutions of the Christians. „, _ By Leon H. Cahfield, Ph.D. Price, ^1.50. VOLUME LVI, 1913. 406 pp. Price, cloth, $3.50. 1. [137] Speculation on tlie New York Stock ExcbauKe, 1904-1907. By Algbknon Ashburnkk Usbornk. Pnce. Ji 30, 8. ri38] The Policy of the TTulted States towards Industrial Monopoly. Bv Oswald Whitman KNAurH, Ph.D. Price #2 o.i. VOLXTME IVII, 1914. 670 pp. Price, cloth, $4.50. 1. [139] *The Civil Service of Great Britain. By Robert Moses, Ph.D. Price. $2,00. a. [140] The Financial History of New York State. By Don C. Sowers. Price. {2,50. VOLUME LVIII, 1914. 684 pp. Price, cloth, $4.50; paper, $4.00. [141] Reconstruction In North Carolina. By J. G. DB RouLHAC Hamilton. Ph.D. VOLUME LIX, 1914. 625 pp. Price, cloth, $4.50. 1. [143,— The Development of Modern Turkey by means of Its Press. By Ahmed Emin. Ph.D. Price, ji.oo, Z. [143] The System of Taxation In China, 1614-1911. By Shao-Kwan Chen. Ph. D. Price, ^i.oo. 8. [144] The Currency Problem In China. By Wbn Pin Wbi, Ph.D. Price, 111.25. 4. [145] *Jewl8h Immigration to the United States. By Samuel Joseph. Ph.D. Price. $1.50, VOLUME LX, 1914. 516 pp. Price, cloth, $4.00. 1* [14:6] *Coustantine tlie Great and Christianity. By CHRISTOPKBh BuSH CoLBHAN, Ph.D. FricC, $2.00. 2, [147] The Establishment of Christianity and the Prosorlption of Fa- Sranism. By Mauo Alinb Huttmahn, Ph.D. Price, $s.oo. VOLUME LXI, 1914. 496 pp. Price, cloth, $4.00. 1. [148] *The Rall^ray Conductors: A Study In Organized Labor. By £uwin Clyde Robbins. Price, ii.50. a. [149] »The Finances of the City of New York. By Yin-Ch'h Ma, Ph.D. Price, (a.50. VOLUME LXII, 1914. 414 pp. Price, cloth, $3.50. ^ [160] The Journal of the Joint Committee of Fifteen on Beconstrnotlon, 89th Congress, 1865— 1S67. By BbnjauihE. KBNDRicK.Ph.U. Price, ^3.00. VOLUME LXIII, 1915. 561pp. Price, cloth, $4.00. 1. [151] Bmlle Surkhelm's Contributions to Sociological Theory. By Charles Elmbk Gtehlkb, Ph.D. Price, $1.50. 8. [15Sj The Nationalization of Railways In Japan. _ , , _ By loSHiHARU Watahai, Ph.D. Price, *i.»s. 8. [153] Population: A Study In Malthuslanlsm. By Warren S. Thompson, Ph.D. Price $1.75. VOLUME LXIV, 1915. 646 pp. Price, cloth, $4.50. 1. [154] Reconstruction In Georgia. By. C. Mildred Thompson, Ph.D. Price, $3.00. 8. [155] The Review of American Colonial I.egIslatlon by the King In Council. By Elmbr Beecher Russell, Ph.D. Price, (1.75. VOLUME LXV, 1915. 496 pp. Price, cloth, $4.00. 1. [156] *The Sovereign Conudl of New France. „ ,.__,„ , ^,„ -_ By Raymond Du Bois Cahall, Ph.D. Price, («.>5. 8. 1157J Scientific Management. By Horace Bookwalter Dbury, Ph.D. Price, I1.75, VOLUME LXVI, 1915. 1. [158] *The Recognition Policy of the United States. 8. [159] Railway Problems In China. 8. [I6O] Mohammedan Theories of Taxation The pjite for each separate monograph is for paper-coDered copies; separate monographs marheil* eah be supplied bound In cloth, for BOc. additional. All prices are net. » "» • «mr™« , can The set ol sixty-flve volumes, covering monographs 1-157, is offered, bound, for $214: except that Volume U can be supplted only in part, and In paper covers, no. 1 of that volume being onto? pilSt: Volumes m, IV and XXV, can now be suppUed only in connection with com^te sets. For further information, apply to Prof. EDWIN R. A. SEUGMAN, Columbia University, or to JWessrs. LONGMANS, GREEN & CO., New York. London: P. S. KING & SON, Ltd., Orchard House, Westminster.