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 http://www.archive.org/details/cu31924014484475 
 
A»,,\ 
 
 THE 
 
 \VHEAT SUPPLY. 
 
 A REPLY TO OBJECTIONS MADE 
 
 LONDON TIMES 
 
 TO CERTAIN ESTIMATES SUBMITTED AT THE MEETING OF THE BRITISH 
 
 ASSOCIATION FOR THE ADVANCEMENT OF SCIENCE, 
 
 SEPTEMBER, 1887. 
 
 BY EDWaRD ATKINSON, 
 
 OF BOSTON, MASS., U. S. A. 
 
 New York 
 li 
 
INTRODUCTION. 
 
 The two letters upon the conditions on which this country competes with 
 ndia in the supply of wheat, and other matters, which are reprinted in this pamphlet 
 rom Bradstreefs of New York, were sent to that paper and to the Times of 
 ^ondon at the same date in order that they might appear on or about the 17th of 
 February in both journals, arrangements having been made for advice by telegraph 
 )f their publication in London. After waiting for such advice from London until 
 March 2 the publication of the letters in Bradstreefs was thought to be expedient 
 without further delay. E. A. 
 
 Boston, March 5, 1888. 
 
THE WHEAT SUPPLY. 
 
 I. 
 
 To the Editor of Bkadstreet's. 
 
 Dear Sir— At the meeting of the British Asso- 
 ciation for the Advancement of Science, held in 
 Manchester in September last, I had the honor of 
 addressing Section F upon the silver question. In 
 this address I had occasion to refer incidentally to 
 the competition of East India with America in sup- 
 plying Great Britain with wheat. I made a guarded 
 statement from memory to the effect that since the 
 years immediately preceding the so-called demon- 
 etization of silver by Germany in 1873, when the 
 price of wheat in Mark Lane was about 505. per 
 quarter, there had been such changes in the cost of 
 production and in the distribution of wheat in the 
 United States as to make it practically certain that 
 at the present time 34s. per quarter would yield as 
 good results to the American farmer 1,500 miles 
 from the seaboard as 505. did then. As I had no 
 books of reference at hand, I did not attempt to 
 give the exact averages at either period. The price 
 of wheat for a terra of years had been somewhat 
 above 50s. in England prior to 1873, although in 
 1870 it was below, while the price at the time 
 of my address was below 34s. The fact which 
 I wished to bring out was that a reduction of 
 at least i6s. per quarter had occurred with respect 
 to American wheat, in the cost of production and 
 distribution. I computed by memory the reduc- 
 tion in the cost of transportation from the pres- 
 ent center of the wheat fields to the seaboard of 
 the United States at ^c. a ton a rtlile, which 
 represents a saving on one ton of 33}^ bush- 
 els, 60 pounds each, of 335ic. per bushel. 
 This reduction on freight by railway at eight 
 bushels per quarter comes to $2.70, or a fraction 
 over IIS., on a haul of 1,500 miles. I then stated 
 that during the same period the cost of moving 
 grain from Boston or New York to Liverpool by 
 steamer had been reduced at least 2S. per quarter. 
 I also said that I believed that the improvements in 
 planting, harvesting, handling and milling grain 
 had reduced the cost at least 3s. more— say i6s. in 
 all, which sum being deducted from 50s. would 
 leave 34s. On this showing the latter price would 
 be as remunerative now as 50s. was at the previous 
 time, and would justify the expectation of a con- 
 tinuous supply of wheat from the United States. I 
 
 added that if I had been rightly informed the supply 
 from India would be checked at or below that price. 
 I was aware that wheat was then selling in Mark 
 Lane at a less price ; I only had in mind the com- 
 petition of India on a silver basis with the United 
 States now on a gold basis or standard. 
 
 This statement, as submitted to the association, 
 excited many adverse comments, especially from 
 several correspondents of the London Times. Itwas 
 contested at all points, not so much with reference 
 to India as in its bearing upon the agriculture of 
 Great Britain. It was alleged, 
 
 1st. That the computation itself could not be sus- 
 tained in its details. 
 
 2d. That the wheat farms of America were gen- 
 erally in a very bad and degenerating condition. 
 
 3d. That the farmers of the west, as a body, were 
 tending toward bankruptcy, or were being eaten up 
 by heavy mortgages. 
 
 4th. That at the first period named, to wit, in 
 1870, 1871 and 1872, wheat was not brought to the 
 sea by all-rail routes so long a distance as 1,500 
 miles, etc., etc. 
 
 Sth. That the production of wheat must have been 
 unprofitable, because since 1880 the crop had not 
 increased in proportion to the increase of popula- 
 tion of the United States. ' 
 
 It would have been not only dishonest but in ex- 
 ceedingly bad taste on my part had I made state- 
 ments in a scientific discussion before the British 
 Association which could not be sustained, and it 
 has not been altogether pleasant to have them ques- 
 tioned in this manner. I have therefore felt it in- 
 cumbent upon myself to make an investigation 
 since my return to America, from which I have es- 
 tablished the following facts. 
 
 In respect to the alleged bankrupt condition of 
 western farmers, I have received returns from the 
 books of fifteen land or mortgage security compa- 
 nies or firms which have lent eastern money upon 
 western farms from a period ranging from two and 
 one-half to thirty-eight years. I know from per- 
 sonal knowledge how well and safely a portion of 
 these companies are managed ; of the rest I know 
 but litde ; but, as the replies to my questions from 
 all the companies consulted are substantially uni- 
 form and concurrent with those given by the com- 
 panies which I know to be well managed, I think 
 
THE WHEAT SUPPLV. 
 
 that the conclusions reached from the compilation of 
 all their statements may be accepted as the' truth. 
 These returns, omitting fractions, cover two hun- 
 dred and fifty thousand (250,000) mortgages, 
 amounting to two hundred and thirty-four million 
 dollars ($234,000,000), averaging a httle over $900 
 lent on each mortgage. One hundred and thirty- 
 three thousand five hundred (133,500) of these mort- 
 gages have been paid, amounting to one hun- 
 dred and ten million five hundred thousand dollars 
 ($110,500,000) ; one hundred and sixteen thousand 
 five hundred (116,500) are still outstanding. The 
 foreclosures have been few ; not one per cent, in 
 point of number of the whole number negotiated. 
 There have been a few losses in particular cases ; 
 but, as a whole, the sale of land taken on foreclosure 
 has paid a profit. The net aggregate result is "no 
 loss." The number of foreclosures outstanding at 
 the present time is unusually small ; the interest is 
 being promptly met ; all the comments, statements 
 and conditions point to prosperity among the farm- 
 ers, rather than to adversity. 
 
 I have addressed questions to many manufactur- 
 ers and merchants and have obtained similar re- 
 plies, and have deduced similar conclusions from 
 the facts given by the dealers in agricultural imple- 
 ments and by some of the largest general traders 
 who supply the wheat-growing country with goods 
 of all kinds. 
 
 The reduction in the rate of interest on money 
 lent to the farmer has been, substantially, from 20 
 per cent, per annum plus a commission at the earli- 
 est date to 6 per cent, minimum without the com- 
 mission at the present time. The rates named in 
 the repUes vary according to the experience and 
 age of the company, and the place, state or terri- 
 tory where the property is on which the money is 
 lent; the average rate to-day may be taken at 6 J^ 
 to 7 per cent. ; the average rate twenty years ago, 
 at 10 to 12 per cent. , or even 15 per cent. The rate 
 being lowest where the laws of the state are the 
 safest for both creditor and debtor, and where the 
 state or public credit is unimpaired. 
 
 In regard to the cost of transportation, I have 
 received from the president of the New York 
 Central Railroad a carefully prepared statement of 
 the actual rates which have been charged on grain 
 and flour separately from othfer merchandise, year 
 by year for twenty years. The reduction since 
 1870, 1871, and 1872, east of Chicago, has been 
 seven-tenths of a cent per ton per mile ; west 
 of Chicago it has been greater. The city of 
 Minneapolis is 400 miles west from Chicago ; it 
 is now the centre of the wheat trade of the north- 
 west ; it had a large traffic in grain and flour prior 
 to 1873 ; the grain crop of Minnesota, Dakota and 
 Nebraska has been mainly tributary to Minneapolis. 
 In 1869 to 1872 the product of these territories 
 (Dakota being then unsettled) and of Kansas 
 
 averaged 22,000,000 bushels annually. From 1883 
 to 1886 it averaged 108,000,000 bushels. Over 4,000 
 miles of new railways have been constructed in the 
 year 1887 in Minnesota, Dakota, Nebraska and 
 Kansas, out of 13,000 miles in the whole country. 
 A large proportion of their grain or of the flour 
 made therefrom in 1872 and 1873 was and is now 
 moved by all-rail routes. The reduction in the 
 rate of traffic west of Chicago to Minneapolis I 
 have not obtained on grain separately ; but it can 
 be implied from the general traffic returns, grain 
 having always been carried at lower charges than 
 general merchandise. The rate west of Chicago 
 was and is higher than it is east, but the reduction 
 from the rate charged at the earlier period has been 
 greater beyond Chicago', since the railway system 
 west of Chicago had not, in 1870, 1871, and 1872, 
 been as well organized as it was toward the east. 
 My statement that the through rate on grain for a 
 distance of 1,500 miles had been reduced since 1870, 
 1871, and 1872, " three-fourths of a cent per ton per 
 mile " on the whole distance, is, therefore, fully sus- 
 tained. The reduction on a quarter of wheat comes 
 to a fraction over lis. per quarter on a haul of 1,500 
 miles. 
 
 In regard to ocean traffic, I have obtained state- 
 ments of their traffic charges from the largest ship- 
 pers of grain. I find that the reduction between 
 the two periods under consideration has been not 
 2s. per quarter, as stated by me, but 4s. 
 
 The substitution of flour in sacks for wheat makes 
 another gain in the freight charge of is. per quarter, 
 if rated on the wheat. 
 
 The charges for elevating, handling and the like, 
 have been reduced at least is. per quarter, and the 
 reduction in the cost of milling, including the sub- 
 stitution of sacks for barrels, has been at least 3s. 
 
 The substitution of the sack, now costing 13c. 
 for the barrel, which cost 50c. in 1872, makes a 
 saving which being rated on the wheat required to 
 make 196 pounds of flour, of a fraction over 8c. per 
 bushel, which is a little more than 2s. 6d. per 
 quarter on the single element in the cost of flour for 
 export. Barrels are still used in the home trade. 
 
 I have submitted these computations for verifica- 
 tion to the editor of Bradstreet's, who gives me 
 the following statement in reply : 
 
 " Taking the official reports of railway, lake and 
 canal freights for fifteen years, Chicago to New 
 York, with rates on grain from New York to Liver- 
 pool for a like period, I find that the reduction in 
 cost of moving one bushel of wheat from Chicago 
 to New York, 1870-72 to 1887, has been (i) by lake 
 and canal, about i8c. ; (2) by lake and rail, 224/5C. ; 
 and (3) by all-rail lines, 30c. About 60 per cent, of 
 the Atlantic coast wheat receipts come east by rail 
 exclusively, which would point to about 26c. de- 
 creased freight charges per bushel on the total 
 quantity sent east, calculated on the Chicago-New 
 
THE WHEAT SUPPLY. 
 
 7 
 
 York rate. Handling charges (elevating, weigh- 
 ing, bagging and sewing) have been reduced within 
 fifteen years ij^c. per bushel at Chicago, J^c. at 
 Buffalo and ij<c. at New York, a total saving of 
 3C. per bushel. Adding these reductions in cost of 
 moving one bushel of wheat from Chicago to New 
 York to the previously calculated reduction in 
 ocean freight charges and we have the following : 
 
 BRADSTREET'S calculated reduction cost of transportation 
 
 on wheat, Chicago to New York, 1870-72 to 1887 26c. 
 
 BRADSTREET'S reported reduction handling charges 3 
 
 BRADSTREET'S reported reduction ocean freights 8 
 
 Total saving in transporting one bushel wheat, Chicago to 
 Liverpool, 1870-72, compared with 1887 37 
 
 It will be observed that this computation from 
 BRADSTREET'S of saving in moving wheat is lim- 
 ited to the distance between Chicago and New 
 York, a little less than one thousand miles. Minne- 
 apolis, in Minnesota, is now the great center of 
 milling for the wheat of the northwest ; it is in 
 round figures four hundred miles west of Chicago. 
 If we compute the reduction of railway charge 
 west only at the rate east of Chicago we get the 
 following result : 26c. from Chicago corresponds to 
 364/iQC. from Minneapolis. At eight bushels to a 
 quarter of wheat this comes to $2,91, which is sub- 
 stantially' 12s. a quarter on 1,400 miles. This state- 
 ment therefore more than sustains my own compu- 
 tation of a saving of lis. on 1,500 miles, and would 
 warrant me in placing it at 13s. 
 
 I will suggest to my critics who have asked 
 whether wheat was moved 1,500 miles by rail for 
 export prior to 1873, to compute the crops of the 
 trans-Mississippi states and territories in the table 
 of crops given below, and to measure the distances 
 for themselves. Suffice it that the great gain in 
 production since 1872, in the face of falling prices, 
 has been in sections which are more than 1,500 
 miles from the seaboard, whence the greater por- 
 tion is moved by all-rail routes to the seaboard or 
 to the centers of distribution for final consumption. 
 In regard to improvements in production : In 
 1876 the self-binder was successfully attached to the 
 reaper ; 100,000 self-binding reapers are now made 
 and sold each year for use in this country. The 
 twine required to bind an average annual wheat 
 crop weighs more than 30,000 tons. Each self- 
 binding reaper has displaced the work of seven to 
 eight men, who formerly followed each reaper to 
 bind the sheaves by hand ; the cost of binding by 
 hand was 5c. to 6c. per bushel in 1870, 1871 and 
 1872 ; the cost of binding automatically with twine 
 now does not exceed ij^c. per bushel, including 
 the price of the material, the repairs of the 
 machines, and other matters. The saving in reap- 
 ing and binding has been at least is. 4d., and may 
 be computed on the average at is. 6d. per quarter. 
 The price of the self-binding reaper has diminished 
 from $300 to $350 dollars each at the beginning to 
 
 an average of $160 now. Yet some of the great 
 fortunes of the day have been made by the manu- 
 facturers and patentees of reapers or harvesters. 
 There has been nearly an equal gain to the farmer 
 m the application of improved planters, plows and 
 other implements, of which I can obtain as yet no 
 exact measure ; it cannot be less than 6d. to 8d. per 
 quarter, and is probably more, but perhaps it might 
 be impossible to bring this gain into actual terms of 
 money. 
 
 Among the improvements may "be named the 
 substitution of the gang and buggy or riding plow, 
 the disc harrow, the general adoption of the barbed- 
 wire fence, which has brought land into use which 
 could not be occupied with economy except for a 
 cheap fence. Harvesters are now being largely 
 used in the extreme northwest, similar to those 
 which are made use of in California for heading 
 the wheat, leaving the straw to rot upon the 
 ground, thus saving the binding, and maintaining 
 to some extent the fertility of the land. 
 
 During the same period, i. e., since 1872, the 
 roller has been substituted for the millstone, and a 
 revolution has occurred in the preparation of flour, 
 lessening the cost of milling and improving the 
 quality of the product. This element cannot be 
 considered at great length ; suffice it that in a given 
 flour mill, of which I have the data, the capacity of 
 the grindstones in 1B70, 1871 and 1872 was 350 bar- 
 rels a day. It has since been altered to the roller 
 system, and the output is now 1,200 barrels per 
 day, with a less number of men employed. 
 
 At the former date the millers were making great 
 profits, and the bran and shorts, or " offal " of the 
 wheat, so called, was discharged into the river. It 
 is now saved and sold for feed at an average of $9 
 per ton. 
 
 At the former date the straw was' mostly burned 
 upon the field to get rid of it. As the population 
 becomes more dense it is saved for customary pur- 
 poses, or on the great prairies, where there is 
 neither wood nor coal, it is compressed and used for 
 fuel, being the only fuel burned in portable engines 
 upon the field. 
 
 As I cannot accurately measure the reduction in 
 cost which has ensued from these changes, except 
 in a general way, I have only estimated them at not 
 less than 3s. per quarter. It has been in fact much 
 greater. 
 
 The sum of the reductions which I have already 
 comes to twenty-two shillings per quarter, which 
 being deducted from fifty shillings leaves twenty- 
 eight shillings per quarter in place of thirty-four, 
 thus more than sustaining my guarded analysis as 
 given in the address to the British Association. 
 These figures would have warranted me in saying 
 to the British Association that twenty-eight shillings 
 per quarter would now yield as good results to the 
 American farmer fifteen hundred miles from the sea- 
 
8 
 
 THE WHEAT SUPPLY. 
 
 board as fifty shillings did prior to 1873, or if the aver- 
 age price of wheat in England be taken at the 
 figures given by one of my critics for four years, 
 1870, 1871, 1B72 and 1873, to wit, fifty-four shillings 
 and nine pence per quarter, then deducting as 
 above twenty-two shillings, the remainder more 
 than sustains my original statement that thirty-four 
 shillings would now pay the American farmer as 
 much as he gained under the actual average of 
 prices of the first period named, 1870 to 1873, to wit, 
 fifty-four shillings and nine pence. 
 
 I then believed that I could have safely named 
 30s., but as I could not then and there give the 
 proofs I made the higher estimate to which such 
 unwise and ill-grounded exceptions have been 
 taken. 
 
 SUMMARY. 
 
 Reduction in the railway charges its. or more 
 
 Reduction in the steamer charges 5S. 
 
 Reduction in planting and reaping 2S. 
 
 Reduction in milling and sacking 3S. 
 
 Reduction in elevating, handling, etc is. 
 
 Min 
 
 um reduction per quarter 22s. 
 
 I have been called upon by Mr. Morton Frewen 
 to prove that there has been an aggregate economy 
 of "some ;^5,ooo,ooo " in the freight charges be- 
 tween the farm and the seaboard of this country 
 as compared with 1871, 1872 and 1873. I have al- 
 ready given proof of this with respect to the dis- 
 tance from what may now be called the center of 
 the great wheat product of the middle section of 
 
 the United States— comprising under the term 
 middle section the states and territories of Kansas, 
 Missouri, Nebraska, Dakota, Wisconsin and Min- 
 nesota. 
 
 A more satisfactory computation may perhaps be 
 made in a different way. Mr. Frewen will not deny 
 that Chicago was a great central point for the dis- 
 tribution of wheat by all-rail routes in the years 
 1870, 1871 and 1872. In round figures Chicago is 
 1,000 miles from the seaboard at Boston, from which 
 much of the wheat has been sent abroad in compe- 
 tition with New York and Baltimore, to which ports 
 the distance is a little less. 
 
 It may also be considered that the average haul 
 within the limits of the United States on all the 
 wheat which is produced, in order to move it from 
 the point of production at the farm to the average 
 point of consumption or export, is about i,ooo 
 miles, probably twelve hundred. If then we take 
 the actual reduction in the charge on the New York 
 Central & Hudson River Railroad as given hereto- 
 fore, to wit, seven-tenths of a cent, a ton per mile, 
 the amount of such reduction is a fraction over 22c. 
 a bushel. This comes to a fraction over 7s. per 
 quarter on a haul of 1,000 miles, or from Chicago to 
 Boston. I have given the total reduction in the 
 cost of producing and distributing wheat on a haul 
 of 1,500 miles at 22s. per quarter on our foreign 
 exports. 
 
 PRODUCT OF WHEAT, 1869 TO 1886. 
 
 States. 
 
 1869. 
 
 1870. 
 
 1871. 
 
 1872. 
 
 1873- 
 
 1874. 
 
 1875- 
 
 1876. 
 
 1877. 
 
 New York 
 
 Bushels. 
 
 9,750.000 
 16,500,000 
 16,800,000 
 20,400,000 
 20,600,000 
 29,200,000 
 
 7,500,000 
 
 2,800,000 
 24,000,000 
 19,000,000 
 23,500,000 
 
 1, 000,000 
 
 1,750,000 
 20,000,000 
 47.346.900 
 
 Bushels. 
 
 9,133,000 
 17,115,000 
 15,288,000 
 19,150,000 
 20,200,000 
 27,115,000 
 
 6,750,000 
 
 ■r,343.ooo 
 20,485,000 
 16,022,000 
 20,445,000 
 
 1,848,000 
 
 2,270,000 
 14,175,000 
 
 43.540,700 
 
 Bushels. 
 
 9.589,000 
 19.339.000 
 16,205,000 
 i8,57SiOOO 
 19,190,000 
 25,216,000 
 12,825,000 
 
 2,69^,000 
 18,436,000 
 12.016,000 
 18,400,000 
 
 1,829,000 
 
 2,292,000 
 16,757,000 
 37.359.400 
 
 Bushels. 
 
 6,712,000 
 11,603,000 
 13.936.000 
 18,203,000 
 19,381,000 
 24,711,000 
 
 7,695,000 
 
 2,155,000 
 22,307,000 
 23,200,000 
 22.080,000 
 
 2,560,000 
 
 2,406,000 
 25,600,000 
 47.448,100 
 
 Bushels. 
 7,047,000 
 15.548,000 
 ■14,214,000 
 
 18,567,000 
 20,832,000 
 28,417,000 
 11,927,000 
 
 4,330,000 
 
 20,322,OOtf 
 28,056,000 
 34.600,000 
 3,584,000 
 
 3,127,000 
 21,504,000 
 43.179.700 
 
 bushels. 
 
 ty,l6l,000 
 
 16,636,000 
 17,341.000 
 
 25.993.000 
 23.331.000 
 30,122,000 
 15-385.000 
 
 9.455.000 
 18,436.000 
 21,338,000 
 33.908.000 
 
 3.619,000 
 
 4,875.000 
 28.380,000 
 51,122,700 
 
 Bushels. 
 5,200,000 
 
 15,200,000 
 16,870,000 
 17,500,000 
 17,280,000 
 27,300,000 
 11,160,000 
 12.700,000 
 25.200,000 
 27,200,000 
 29,800,000 
 3,400,000 
 
 4,500,000 
 23,800,000 
 
 55,026,000 
 
 Bushels. 
 9,750,000 
 
 18,740,000 
 15,170,000 
 21,750,000 
 20,000,000 
 23,440,000 
 15,240,000 
 16,510,000 
 16,800,000 
 16,000,000 
 17,600,000 
 4,330.000 
 
 4,675,000 
 30,000,000 
 
 59.351.500 
 
 Bushels. 
 
 Pennsylvania 
 
 18,200,000 
 21,890,000 
 
 
 Indiana 
 
 Illinois 
 
 24,600,000 
 33,000,000 
 20.000,000 
 14,400,000 
 22,000,000 
 33.324.346 
 37,810,000 
 5,64o;ooo 
 
 Kansas 
 
 Wisconsin 
 
 Minnesota 
 
 
 
 
 6,875,000 
 22,000,000 
 65,654,800 
 
 California 
 
 All other states 
 
 
 260,146,900 
 
 235,884,700 
 
 230,722,400 
 
 249,997,100 
 
 281,254,700 
 
 309,102,700 
 
 292,136,000 
 
 289,356.500 
 
 364,194.146 
 
 
 States. 
 
 1878. 
 
 1879. 
 
 1880. 
 
 1881. 
 
 1882. 
 
 1883. 
 
 1884. 
 
 1885. 
 
 1886. 
 
 New York 
 
 Bushels. 
 
 i4ii28,4oo 
 
 22,095,000 
 
 27,889,200 
 
 33,120,000 
 
 33,136,000 
 
 31,620,000 
 
 20,196,000 
 
 27,221,000 
 
 21,154,400 
 
 28;824,ooo 
 
 30,440.960 
 
 13,872,900 
 
 7,665,000 
 41,990,000 
 66,769,540 
 
 Bushels. 
 
 10,746,000 
 
 22,307,400 
 
 28,773,120 
 
 36,591.750 
 
 43.709.960 
 
 44.896,830 
 
 26,801,600 
 
 18,089,500 
 
 20,565,720 
 
 31,886,520 
 
 32,786,880 
 
 13.043.590 
 
 8.188,800 
 35,000,000 
 75.368,960 
 
 Bushels. 
 
 12,609,200 
 
 22,114,380 
 
 33.155.S65 
 
 49.790.475 
 
 49.766,758 
 
 60.958,757 
 
 29.563.134 
 
 20,336,000 
 
 16,654,735 
 
 40,395.696 
 
 33.178.205 
 
 12,922,677 
 
 11,734,420 
 33,877,600 
 71,491,966 
 
 Bushels. 
 
 10,844,000 
 
 18,797,000 
 
 21,220,000 
 
 38,520,000 
 
 31,353,000 
 
 26.822.000 
 
 20,399,000 
 
 19.909,000 
 
 17.987.000 
 
 35.952.000 
 
 18,248,000 
 
 13,840,000 
 
 12,673,000 
 31,406,000 
 65.310,090 
 
 Bushels. 
 
 12,145.200 
 
 20,300,700 
 
 32,315,400 
 
 43.4S3.6oo 
 
 45,461,800 
 
 52.302,900 
 
 27,538,600 
 
 31,248,000 
 
 23,145,400 
 
 33.030.500 
 
 23.487.200 
 
 18,300,000 
 
 11,460,000 
 
 12,039,300 
 
 36,046,600 
 
 79,910,270 
 
 Bushels. 
 
 8,035,200 
 20,043,800 
 23,011,000 
 25,884,000 
 28,447,800 
 22,150,000 
 23,819,300 
 26,851,100 
 19,604.900 
 33.773.200 
 27,518,800 
 27,481,300 
 16,128,000 
 13,122,400 
 36,322,000 
 66,893,360 
 
 Bushels. 
 
 12,729,000 
 
 20,820,000 
 
 29,772,000 
 
 41,186,000 
 
 33.745.000 
 
 327374,000 
 
 27,500,000 
 
 34.990,000 
 
 20,083,000 
 
 41,307,000 
 
 31,270,000 
 
 28,325,000 
 
 22,330,000 
 
 15,462,000 
 
 44,320,000 
 
 76,552,000 
 
 Bushels. 
 
 10,565,000 
 
 13.325,000 
 
 31,261,000 
 
 20,593,000 
 
 26,659,000 
 
 10,683,000 
 
 11,275,000 
 
 11,197,000 
 
 15,665,000 
 
 34,285.000 
 
 30,332,000 
 
 19.828,000 
 
 27,913,000 
 
 13.916,000 
 
 26,592,000 
 
 53,023,000 
 
 Bushels. 
 
 11,093,000 
 
 18,255,000 
 
 26,572,000 
 
 40,362,000 
 
 40,255,000 
 
 27,562,000 
 
 21,986,000 
 
 14.556,000 
 
 14,723.000 
 
 42,856,000 
 
 Pennsylvania . . .'. . 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Wisconsin 
 
 Minnesota 
 
 Nebraska 
 
 17,449.000 
 
 
 
 11,133.000 
 36,165,000 
 71,090,000 
 
 California 
 
 All other states 
 
 Totals 
 
 420,132,400 
 
 448,756,630 
 
 498,549,868 
 
 383,280,090 
 
 504,185,470 
 
 421.086,160 
 
 512,765,000 
 
 357,112,000 
 
 457.218,003 
 
 
 
 
THE WHEAT SUPPLY. 
 
 9 
 
 If we take Chicago as the wheat center in place 
 of Minneapolis and compute the reduction of the 
 cost and charges on wheat within the limits of the 
 United States only, we get the following result : 
 
 SAVING ON WHEAT TAKING CHICAGO AS THE CENTER, 
 1,000 MILES HAUL IN PLACE OF iTsoo. 
 
 Reduction of railway charg^e 7s. 
 
 Reduction on planting and reaping 2 
 
 Reduction on handlings and elevating i 
 
 Reduction in milling and on cost of barrels, omitting gain 
 
 in sacking, as barrels are used in the home trade 2 
 
 Minimum reduction on cost of wheat without ocean 
 charges, per quarter 12 
 
 Twelve shillings per quarter is is. 6d. per bushel, 
 or between 36c. and 37c. 
 
 The average wheat crop of the United States at 
 the present time amounts to 55,000,000 quarters. 
 An actual saving of 12s. per quarter in the produc- 
 tion and internal distribution of ss,ooo,coo quarters 
 comes to ;^33, 000,000, or in round figures, one 
 hundred and fifty million dollars ($150,000,000). 
 
 If we assume that this country may be called 
 upon to supply the whole consumption of Great 
 Britain with 200,000,000 bushels, or 25,000,000 
 quarters of wheat, the proportionate reduction on 
 that part would be ;^I5, 000,000, in place of the 
 ;£'5, 000,000 which I am asked to prove. 
 
 If we are called upon to supply only one-half the 
 wheat required by Great Britain, the reduction in 
 cost since the year 1870, 1871 and 1872 may be com- 
 puted at ;^7,soo,ooo on the wheat dehvered at the 
 port of export in the United States, to which may 
 be added the reduction on ocean steamers charges 
 in British steamers at the rate of 4s. to 5s. per 
 quarter,' making over ;^io,ooo,ocio in all, or about 
 $50,000,000 saved to British consumers in the last 
 fifteen years. 
 
 When one treats such a problem as this in the 
 gross the figures are often too large to make a clear 
 impression upon the mind. The important ques- 
 tion is, has this reduction in cost yet been distrib- 
 uted equitably among those who consume the 
 bread? That problem, however, is foreign to the 
 present question. 
 
 One of your correspondents alleges that while 
 there has been great increase in the crop of spring 
 wheat the winter wheat has fallen off. This is true 
 to some extent, but it is not wholly true ; wheat 
 may have fallen off in some of the states in which 
 com and meat or some other crop more profitable 
 than wheat at a given time can be substituted ; but 
 in some of the eastern states where wheat is 
 still an important product, to wit, in the states 
 of New York and Pennsylvania, even this product 
 has increased. The average wheat crop of 
 these two states from 1869 to 1872 was 25,- 
 000,000 bushels ; and from 1883 to 1886 it 
 was 29,000,000 bushels each year. See previous 
 table. 
 
 It is alleged that wheat cannot be made on the 
 
 great farms of the northwest at 40c. a bushel "if 
 depreciation of machinery, interest on capital and 
 depreciation of land be included." I have obtained 
 statements from some of the most successful "bo- 
 nanza farmers," who compute the cost of cultivat- 
 ing and harvesting an acre of wheat at $8, including 
 all these items, the average crop in a fair year 
 being twenty bushels, in a good year twenty- 
 two. There is ample testimony to sustain these 
 figures. 
 
 The end is not yet. Whenever the railroads 
 west of Chicago increase their traffic so as to ena- 
 ble them to work as cheaply as the lines east of 
 Chicago, a reduction of 2S. a quarter on 400 to 500 
 miles of track may be made. This is practically 
 certain to come between Minneapolis and Chicago. 
 
 New labor-saving machines are being constantly 
 introduced ; the latest is a thresher which threshes 
 four bushels of wheat in one minute, or 2,400 in 
 a day of ten hours ; and a binder which binds 
 automatically with a wisp of straw is said to be 
 within probable success, thus saving the cost of 
 twine. 
 
 It might be assumed that the lowest point of 
 cheap transportation had been reached, but the im- 
 provement applied to the " Strong " locomotive en- 
 gines, now in successful operation, has reduced the 
 cost of fuel in ratio to power developed to that re- 
 quired in stationary engines of the best kind. The 
 use of these engines is being accompanied by the 
 construction of cars carrying thirty tons each of 
 paying freight against fifteen tons of dead weight ; 
 this will enable short freight trains to be made up 
 carrying a very large paying load, to be run at high 
 speed and at lower cost than anything yet accom- 
 plished. 
 
 If these facts prove anything, they prove conclu- 
 sively that the American farmer in the wheat-grow- 
 ing regions will himself receive as much money from 
 his wheat when sold in London at the present, time 
 at less than 30s. per quarter as he did in the period 
 previously named, 1870 and 1872, when it was at 
 50s. or more. 
 
 If it be asked how can such a price yield any 
 profit now, the rejoinder is, how could the' former 
 price have paid him ? If it did not pay him then, 
 how can the increase in production since 1870, 1871 
 and 1872 be accounted for ? 
 
 It may be remarked that the money which the 
 farmer receives to-day is at least 50 per cent, greater, 
 in purchasing power with respect to tools, ma- 
 chines, clothing and food than it was in the first 
 period, to wit, 1870 to 1872. The wages on the 
 great farms are now $25, say ;^5, per month, with 
 board, for the small force which is retained through- 
 out the year, and $2 per day (say 8s.), with board, 
 for the larger additional force required during the 
 harvest season. Had it not been for the invention 
 of the self-binder it would have taken a force during 
 
lO 
 
 THE WHEAT SUPPLY. 
 
 the harvest season of at least 160,000 men, probably 
 more, to bind a single crop. It is difficult to see 
 how the crops made could have been saved under 
 such conditions, since no such ntmiber of available' 
 men could have been found for the temporary work 
 of the short harvest season. 
 
 The inference that wheat-growing has ceased to 
 be profitable because the specific crop of wheat has 
 not increased ratably with the increase of population 
 since 1880, although it has increased so much since 
 1S70, may be, and probably is, entirely erroneous, 
 for the reason that in many of the principal wheat- 
 growing states it is optional with the farmer to grow 
 either wheat, maize or Indian corn, flaxseed, oats, 
 barley, or some other field crop. Wheat is an im- 
 portant crop, but it is by no means the most im- 
 portant crop in this country. The crop of Indian 
 corn is the principal and most valuable product of 
 agriculture. The hay crop is also more valuable 
 than the wheat crop. An average crop of Indian 
 corn at the present time ranges from 1,900,000,000 
 to 2,000,000,000 bushels. This year it has been cut 
 short about 25 per cent, by drouth. It will not 
 much exceed 1,400,000,000 bushels. The average 
 of the wheat crop ranges from 420,000,000 to 
 500,000,000 bushels, according to the price of other 
 field crops and the character of the season. 
 
 The question is not whether wheat-growing, but 
 whether grain-growing, is specifically profitable 
 or not. 
 
 With reference to this point the simple fact may 
 be submitted that the per capita product of grain in 
 the United States has increased from an average of 
 38 bushels per head in the years 1866, 1867 and 
 1868, to 4oJ^ bushels per head in the years 1870, 
 1871 and 1872, and to 52 bushels per head in the 
 years 1884, 1885 and 1886. The average wheat 
 crop of 1870 and 1872 was 239,000,000 bushels; 
 1883 and 1885 was 442,000,000 bushels. Neither 
 may it be inferred that wheat-growing does not pay 
 the cost of production because it does not bring the 
 sum which may be computed as its cost on a farm 
 exclusively devoted to wheat production. 
 
 Wheat is in some sections the cash or money 
 crop, and not infrequently whatever it brings is 
 profit. The following statement from the books of 
 a small farm, in which wheat is but one of the 
 products of fanning, may illustrate and explain this 
 case : 
 
 Seed, 100 acres, z^ bushels per acre, rgo bushels at 70c. $105.00 
 
 Seeding, six days' work at $3.50 per day 21.00 
 
 Harrowing twice, ten days' work 35-00 
 
 Harvesting at $r per acre 100.00 
 
 Twine, r% pounds per acre, at 14c 24.50 
 
 Threshing and delivering at elevator I2^c. per bushel, 
 
 1,850 bushels 231.25 
 
 Plowing in stubble at $1.50 per acre 150.00 
 
 $666.75 
 
 Average of four last crops, i8J^ bushels per acre, 
 cost 36c. per bushel. 
 
 It will be observed that the seed is charged at the 
 market price and not at the cost. 
 
 If this account were made up on the basis of cost 
 
 for seed, it would stand as follows : 
 
 Cost as above $666.75 
 
 Less charge fo»seed 105.00 
 
 $561-75 
 
 Average crop. 1,850 bushels. 
 
 Less seed 150 bushels, 
 
 1,700 bushels net at 33c $561.00 
 
 without interest or depreciation. 
 
 The foregoing statement has been furnished me 
 by a farmer wh"bse product consists of a variety of 
 crops of which wheat is but one. As the harvesting 
 and threshing is done by the neighborhood machine 
 on contract, it will be very apparent that the seed- 
 ing and harrowing and the ploughing in of the 
 stubble take but a very small part of the time either 
 of the farmer or of his permanent force of men ; 
 therefore he can afford to raise this crop at a much 
 lower cost than if his time and labor were exclu- 
 sively devoted to wheat production, without any 
 other occupation for himself, his men, or his capital 
 during other parts of the year. 
 
 I commend these facts and figures to some of my 
 friends whom I greatly esteem even in their errors, 
 by whom my previous statements were questioned, 
 and whom I recognize either by their full names or 
 by their initials. 
 
 It may not be denied in rejoinder to their remarks 
 that the whole system of farming has been changed 
 in its necessary conditions during the period under 
 treatment. There have been periods in the inter- 
 val between 1870 and the present date when ex- 
 travagant profits have been made upon wheat both 
 by large and small farmers, the cost of moving 
 having been reduced more rapidly than the price. 
 There has therefore doubtless been a good deal of 
 wild investment and of unskillful management, 
 especially on the large farms, whereby some of them 
 have become bankrupt. The small farmers have 
 also been compelled to, or have chosen to exercise 
 greater skill and economy in their work. There is 
 also a tendency at the present time to follow up the 
 success of the land mortgage companies as lend- 
 ers, by urging farmers to buy more land on specula- 
 tion rather than for the purpose of improving what 
 they now have. Investors need to be very careful 
 in the choice of their agency just now. 
 
 In electing in what state money may be lent upon 
 mortgages reference should be made — 
 
 1st. To the credit of the state itself. 
 
 2d.' To the state laws for the exemption of home- 
 steads from attachment or stay laws affecting the 
 collection of debts. 
 
 In a large portion of the states of this country the 
 lesson has been learned that a good public credit is 
 necessary to a sound private credit, and that it is 
 as much for the interest of the debtors that creditors 
 should be protected by judicious acts for their 
 
THE WHEAT SUPPLY. 
 
 U 
 
 security as it is tliat their own riglits should be 
 sustained. It is unfortunate for them, however, that 
 in some states a high rate of interest may be 
 promised, but in case of default it may be very 
 ditiicult to recover the principal. There may be 
 nothing safer than a farm mortgage in a well- 
 ordered state; there may be nothing more unsafe 
 than it farm mortgage in a state in which it is 
 still assumed to be cheaper not to pay under 
 certain conditions than it is to pay ones honest 
 debts. 
 
 Admitting, therefore, that ill-managed farms, 
 great and small, have failed to be profitable ; that 
 the present conditions call for close economy, and 
 that mortgages entered into for speculative pur- 
 poses may have " eaten up " the profits of fanning ; 
 nevertheless, the general conclusion must, I think, 
 be adtaitted that the western farmers are as a rule ■ 
 in a sound and prosperous condition, and will con- 
 tinue to supply Great Britain with all the wheat she 
 may require at present prices, if no more can be 
 obtained or if a better use for the land cannot be 
 found in substituting some other crop. 
 
 The question of cost in producing wheat has 
 been mainly treated by my critics from the stand- 
 point of English farming. This is a mistake on 
 their part. The small tarmers of this country, who 
 number between 4,000,000 and 5,000,000, nearly all 
 own their own land. As a rule they raise mixed 
 crops, among which come what are called their cash 
 or money crops. In one section this cash crop is 
 cotton ; in another it is meat ; in another it is 
 wheat. The sum received for this part of their 
 crop goes into the profit and loss account of the 
 farm; it may be all profit, or it may be in part 
 profit. On the basis derived from farms or planta- 
 tions operated on the " all-cotton," or " all- wheat " 
 method, as they are called, on figures only it might 
 be proved to be impossible to produce either the 
 cotton or the wheat at the prices at which they are 
 sold; but it is also about as impossible to assign 
 any specific cost to either when they constitute a 
 part of a crop of mixed farming. Whatever sum 
 the wheat or other cash crops bring, they constitute 
 the principal source of money to the farmer from his 
 mixed crop ; therefore, in the face even of declining 
 prices and increased wages, the application of 
 science and invention, of better machinery, of better 
 methods, and of more intelligence have kept the 
 country prosperous, and as a rule have brought or 
 may bring the farmers out of debt in a very short 
 term of years. 
 
 It is interesting to observe in the reports of some 
 of the older land mortgage companies that many of 
 the farmers to whom their money was lent at high 
 rates of interest in the early period of their history 
 in Ohio, Indiana, Illinois and Michigan are now 
 lending their surplus profits derived from farming 
 at much lower rates to the newcomers or the 
 
 pioneers of the wheat-producing territory of Kan- 
 sas, Nebraska, Minnesota and Dakota. 
 
 The measure of land required for the wheat crop 
 may be computed from this fact. The territory of 
 Dakota, which is not yet admitted as a state, covers 
 about 150,000 square miles. All the wheat which is 
 consvmied by the people of Great Britain and Ire- 
 land, say 200,000,000 bushels or 25,000,000 quarters, 
 could be produced from less than one-sixth part of 
 the area of this one territory, at the average of its 
 present product per acre on its good lands. 
 
 It has been alleged that this land is being de- 
 teriorated by constant cultivation. On this point 
 more information is required. The reports which I 
 have thus far received from farmers indicate that a 
 single summer fallow, or the planting of a single 
 renovating crop (vide Letter II.), has up to this 
 time sufficed to restore the fertility of this enorm- 
 ously deep and finely-pulverized soil. 
 
 I may venture to call attention to the fact that 
 this is no new subject to myself. In the Fortnightly 
 Review for July, 1880, will be found an article upon 
 "The Railroads of the United States and Their 
 Effect upon Farming in Great Britain." In this 
 article I treated the various forces which could then 
 be witnessed in the beginning of their action, tend- 
 ing toward cheap bread for the multitude. After 
 designating the changes which were in progress in 
 the production and distribution of wheat, I us.ed 
 these words : ' ' Although all the elements of the 
 problem are thus undetermined, one proposition may be 
 slated dogmatically, to wit: That there are many 
 parts of this country where wheat will be raised in in- 
 creasing quantity at and above fifty cents per bushel, 
 whence it can be carried to Liverpool at fifty cents 07 
 less, and landed at thirty-four shillings per quarter." 
 
 In a pamphlet edition of this article, printed at a 
 little later date, when the report of the English 
 commissioners — Messrs. Pell and Reed — had just 
 been made, to the effect that the competition of the 
 United States might not be feared, yet hoped for, 
 in England at anything less than 48s. per quarter, 
 I stated that they would have been more nearly 
 right had they fixed the possible point at one-half 
 that sum, or 24s. per quarter. The price at 50s. 
 per quarter yields a trifle over $1.50 per bushel in 
 American money ; 34s. yields a fraction over $1 per 
 bushel, and 25s. yields 75c. 
 
 I now venture to repeat the proposition made in 
 July, 1880, slightly changed, to this effect : That, 
 although the elements of the present problem are to 
 some extent undelerm,ined, one proposition 7nay be 
 stated dogmatically, to wit : That there are parts of 
 this country where wheat may be raised in inc7 easing 
 quantity at and even below forty cents per bushel, 
 whence it may be catried to Liverpool at thirty-five 
 cents per bushel, where it may be landed at a cost' 0/ 
 not exceeding twenty-five shillings pcj quarter, ot 
 seventy-five cents per bushel, I do not submit tliis as 
 
12 
 
 THE WHEAT SUPPLY. 
 
 a probable price under future conditions, but I sub- 
 mit tlie proofs that it is not impossible of being 
 realized. We can probably do better with land, 
 labor and capital, in some other pursuit. 
 
 In this treatment of the wheat question I have 
 considered only the moving of wheat by all-rail 
 routes from what are now the central wheat- 
 growing sections of the United States, 1,500 miles 
 from the seaboard, taking no consideration of the 
 crops of Oregon and California in the far west 
 which are moved from the western coast by sea. 
 Neither have I given any consideration to the 
 movement of wheat to the eastern seaboard by 
 canals or other waterways, for the reason that so 
 large a portion of the grain and flour is now moved 
 by rail as to make it immaterial whether or not a 
 part is moved by canal. The New York Central 
 & Hudson River Railroad pays annually in taxes to 
 the slate of New York a sum equal to that which 
 the state of New York expends in maintaining the 
 Erie canal for the transportation of merchandise 
 free from tolls ; yet it is the New York Central Rail- 
 road by which the greater part of the grain is 
 moved, and not the Erie canal. 
 
 The dsfy of canals has substantially passed in 
 this country, and we cannot help wondering at the 
 undertaking to open a canal from the Mersey to 
 Manchester. 
 
 Among the factors which may, however, be added 
 to those already named, sustaining the proposition 
 that wheat may yet be sold in Liverpool or London 
 at 25s. per quarter with a remuneration to the 
 American farmer equal to that which he now re- 
 ceives at about 31s. to 32s., the great changes in 
 river and lake traffic and in the waterways of Canada 
 as well as of the United States may be considered, 
 and the future traffic from Duluth on Lake Superior 
 by way of the lakes, rivers and canals connecting 
 them. 
 
 I trust that in this communication I have de- 
 fended myself adequately against the imputation of 
 having submitted statements to the British Associa- 
 tion for the Advancement of Science which could 
 not be justified by actual proofs. 
 
 These statements have been designated by one 
 or two of your correspondents, first, as examples of 
 "American spread-eagleism"; afterward, that term 
 having been withdrawn, they have been considered 
 as something in the nature of "bragging" state- 
 ments. It had not occurred to me when treating 
 the interdependence of the English-speaking people 
 that there was anything for one branch of the race 
 to "brag" of or to "boast" of in the facts pre- 
 sented. May it not rather be a cause of grateful 
 thanksgiving that by the combination of English 
 and American applications of science to agriculture 
 and to distribution a sack of flour can be moved 
 from Minneapolis, 1,400 miles from the seaboard of 
 the United States, to Liverpool or to London at a 
 
 charge which pomes to less than i8c,, or gd., pei' 
 bushel of wheat. Is it not a matter of interest to 
 the bread-winners of Great Britain that in their 
 quartern loaves of four pounds each the cost of 
 moving the flour 4,000 to 5,000 miles is but a frac- 
 tion over a ha'penny ? May not both branches of 
 the English-speaking people unite in the common 
 boast that the wages of one day's work of a good 
 mechanic on the eastern seaboard of the United 
 States will suffice to move his year's supply of grain 
 and meat 1,000 miles from the far-distant prairies of 
 the west, while the skilled workman of Great 
 Britain may also move his year's supply of grain 
 and meat 4,000 or 5,000 miles at a cost of two days' 
 labor, possibly of three? The flour required for 
 365 loaves of bread of four pounds each can now 
 be moved from Minneapolis, where the Pilsbury 
 Mills grind 10,000 barrels or sacks a day, to' Lon- 
 don for less than i6s., or $4. Have not the sci- 
 entists who have eliminated time and distance made 
 the whole world one great neighborhood in which 
 each man may serve his neighbor ? 
 
 But the masters of physical science have only re- 
 moved natural obstructions ; there is work now for 
 the masters of polidcal science. It now remains 
 for legislators to remove the artificial obstrucdons 
 created by their predecessors in order tfiat each 
 nation may serve the other. When that is done 
 the interdependence of the men of all countries and 
 of all climes will be established, and the foundation 
 of peace, order, industry, good-will and plenty 
 among all nations will be firmly laid. 
 
 Then it may happen that the prophetic vision of 
 your own great statesman will be reahzed, "when 
 the ships which pass between this land and that 
 shall be like the shutde of the loom, weaving the 
 web of concord among the nations." 
 
 I am indebted to the following gentlemen for the 
 data on which this compilation has been made, and 
 I cite them as authority for the facts given, each in 
 his own department : 
 
 Hon. Chauncey M. Depew, president of the New 
 York Central & Hudson River Railroad ; Charles 
 A. Pilsbury, Esq., of Minneapolis, Minn. ; J. Rus- 
 sell Parsons, Esq., of the W. A. Wood Mower and 
 Reaper Co., Hoosic Falls, N. Y. ; Henry V. Poor, 
 Esq., editor of Poor's Railway Manual; the Com- 
 missioner of Agriculture of the United States ; 
 The D. M. Osborne Co., of Auburn, N. Y. ; 
 the Statistical Department of the New York 
 Produce Exchange ; the editor of Bradstreet's, 
 New York; the Northwestern Miller, Min- 
 neapohs, Minn. ; the American Miller, Chicago, 
 111. ; the Farm Implement News, Chicago, 111. ; 
 the managers of fifteen land mortgage companies. 
 Also many other correspondents, especially farm- 
 ers of repute, in various parts of the country. 
 
 Edward Atkinson. 
 
 Boston, Mass., U. S. A., January, 1888. 
 
THE WHEAT SUPPLY. 
 
 13 
 
 II. 
 To the Editor of Bradstreet's. 
 
 Dear Sir — I might, perhaps, rest the proofs of 
 the possibility of an abundant supply of wheat at 
 very low cost, with the correlative high wages or 
 earnings to the farm laborers, coupled with reason- 
 able profits to the farmers, millers and transporta- 
 tion companies, at the point where I left it in my 
 first letter ; but there are a few more facts which 
 may not be without interest either to American or 
 English readers. 
 
 I have stated that a large part of our wheat crop 
 is the product of a system of mixed farming. In 
 many, perhaps in most cases, meat, or milk for 
 conversion into butter and cheese, are among the 
 other products. As great a change has occurred, 
 or is occurring, in the production of these latter 
 products as in the case of the production of wheat. 
 With respect to dairy products the general adoption 
 of the butter and cheese factory may be named, 
 bringing economy into the manufacture of butter 
 and cheese, better conditions, and better prices for 
 the milk to the farmers. 
 
 But there is a yet more important fact to be con- 
 sidered. With the exception of the extreme northern 
 part of the wheat-producing area of this country an 
 alternative crop of maize or Indian corn may be 
 raised. It has become probable, if it has not yet 
 been conclusively proved by Prof. William O. At- 
 water, of Middletown, Ct., in his investigation ot 
 the Indian-corn plant, that it may be included as a 
 renovating crop with buckwheat and clover of the 
 north and the cow-pea vine of the south, each de- 
 riving its nitrogen from the atmosphere. It has 
 been conclusively proved by skillful farmers who 
 have adopted the plan of feeding their stock with 
 ensilage made from Indian corn, that the meat and 
 milk may be removed from the farm, but if the 
 manure derived from the stock be restored to the 
 soil it will not only maintain the ferdlity of the corn 
 field, but it will yield a surplus over to be applied 
 to other parts of the farm. If, then, the corn crop 
 requires no expensive nitrogenous manure, but can 
 be sustained by the application of cheap phosphates 
 and potash, it follows that the semi-barbarous 
 method of raising cattle on far-distant ranches must 
 soon yield to a system of intensive farming under 
 which there is scarcely a single state within the lim- 
 its of the United States which may not supply itself 
 vrith its own beef and dairy products, either from 
 its own land not yet under cultivation, or, in some 
 of the eastern parts of the country, by restoring 
 farms to cultivation which have been deserted for 
 the more fertile lands of the west. This process in 
 the renovation of deserted lands can ' now be wit- 
 nessed throughout New England in its actual prog- 
 ress. In the state of Massachusetts, where 27 per 
 cent, of the population in 1885 was of foreign birth 
 
 (by foreign, meaning not born in the United States) 
 and more than 50 per cent, was of foreign parent- 
 age, including those of foreign birth, the lands 
 which the Yankees left a generation ago to develop 
 the richer fields of the west are now passing into 
 the ownership of Irish, German, French Canadian 
 and other races. 
 
 This process has been greatly promoted by the 
 common habit of depositing savings in the city and 
 town savings banks which are scattered over the 
 state. These banks, which are private trusts ad- 
 ministered by unpaid trustees, are conducted by 
 paid executive officers. Their aggregate deposits 
 and accumulated profits in October, 1887, amounted 
 to ;^6o, 000,000, or $302,948,624 ; divided among 
 945.333 depositors, at an average of $323 each. It 
 will be observed that the depositors num- 
 bered 945,333 out of a population of about 2,000,- 
 000 : or nearly every other person — man, woman 
 and child. 
 
 A considerable portion of this money is lent on 
 mortgage in small sums ; thereby a very large pro- 
 portion of the working people are enabled to be- 
 come the owners of their own farms or dwelling 
 houses. The beneficent influence of the private 
 savings bank is therefore felt as much in the lend- 
 ing of the funds as in the inducement which it of- 
 fers to the saving of small amounts. In this func- 
 tion of lending it becomes a constructive force, and 
 is therefore greatly to be preferred to a government 
 or postal savings bank, in which the earnings of the 
 people are invested in the evidence of debt or the 
 bonds of the nation. Such an investment would 
 soon become impracticable in this country, as there 
 will be no public debt in a few years' time ; and 
 even if there were, if the average deposits of the 
 people of the country were equal per capita to that 
 of Massachusetts the securities required for its in- 
 vestment would amount to $9,000,000,000, or three 
 times the national debt of the United States at its 
 maximum, in 1865. 
 
 We think our savings banks are a better invest- 
 ment than standing armies and navies. 
 
 My attention having been called to this subject of 
 ensilage a few years since, I put to the farmers the 
 conundrum which none of them could then answer 
 very accurately : ' ' What is the cost of producing a 
 pound of beef? " One of my correspondents, Mr. 
 Wm. H. Gilbert, of Richland, N. Y., intends to be 
 able to answer this question with absolute certainty 
 next year, when he will be able to send to market a 
 considerable number of two-year old steers raised 
 separately on his farm, mainly on ensilage, for con- 
 version into beef. As an indication of his progress 
 in this art I venture to give you his latest report, 
 from an address to the Farmers' Institute of his 
 county. 
 
 ' ' Several years ago Edward Atkinson in an ad- 
 dress said : . 
 
14 
 
 THE WHEAT SUPPLY. 
 
 "'Ifl were to say to you that next to the abolition 
 of slavery and the use of the railway and the steam- 
 ship, the re-discovery of the method of saving green 
 crops, called ENSILAGE, will prove to be the most 
 important event in its effect on the material welfare of 
 the present century, you may suggest that a commission 
 of lunacy be appointed to examine the condition of my 
 brain. And yet I venture to say so.' That was a 
 bold utterance, yet the facts now strongly corrobor- 
 ate the prediction. 
 
 ' ' The past season over 500 silos have been built 
 in the state of Wisconsin alone, and they have only 
 just commenced. In the New England and middle 
 states they have been used in a small way for the 
 past eight years. Last year the number increased 
 fully 25 per cent. The new converts are as enthu- 
 siastic over their silos as though they had really 
 discovered something new and of great import- 
 ance. 
 
 " The first thing for a farmer to do is to satisfy 
 himself whether corn can be preserved in the silo 
 and its feeding quality or value retained ; that point 
 settled, he knows what to do. 
 
 " If he concludes to build a silo he will want 250 
 cubic feet of pressed ensilage to winter a cow, and 
 he can build on that basis for any number of cows. 
 Less space will answer if his corn is well eared and 
 at its best. I hardly dare estimate the amount of 
 cattle food that an acre of good corn will produce. 
 While cutting my ensilage corn last fall I weighed 
 upwards of 100 stalks that weighed from six to 
 eight pounds each. I weighed what came from one 
 kernel of seed, and found fourteen and one-half 
 pounds. The stalk that weighed eight pounds had 
 five full ears, and was fourteen feet high. 
 
 "I give these figures to show what can be done 
 with some of the large varieties of corn when prop- 
 erly cultivated. 
 
 " In August and September I fed about two acres 
 of our state corn planted in hills three feet apart 
 each way. The corn was cut and bound in bunches 
 of two hills, and fed one bunch to each cow night 
 and morning. I was surprised at the result. Within 
 a week after I commenced feeding the corn 
 my cows had gained over 25 per cent, in the yield 
 of butter. 
 
 " I found that six hills would keep a cow a day, 
 and by cutting one hundred hills in a row that I 
 had an average of 4.60 ears of corn and a weight 
 of ten and one-half pounds, and that an acre ot 
 perfect com, planted three feet apart each way 
 would give me 4,730 hills. 
 
 "Six hills a day would keep a cow 788 days, 
 giving her a daily ration of sixty-three pounds, in- 
 cluding 27.60 ears. That corn would have an equal 
 feeding value preserved in the silo. 
 
 ' ' I will give you a few facts and figures in my 
 experience : 
 
 " Having a light, sandy soil, one easily cultivated 
 
 and well adapted to corn culture, I became an easy 
 and willing convert to the ensilage system. From 
 the first I concluded that if I got good nutritious 
 food out of the silo I must first put it in ; that the 
 silo was to preserve food, not to produce it. I had 
 learned by experience that green , immature sowed 
 corn was not a profitable food for milch cows; 
 hence it would make poor ensilage. Corn for the 
 silo should be cuUivated same as for the grain ; the 
 more perfect the plant the more profit it will give 
 you. It should not be cut until it is well matured 
 and at its best. Corn cut and put into the silo at 
 that stage will make a food that will produce a first- 
 class butter, or if fed for beef will give you the best 
 quality. 
 
 " The sweetest ensilage I ever saw I made from a 
 field of yellow flint-corn put into the silo wholp 
 when it was ripe enough to harvest for the grain. 
 It was as sweet when taken from the silo as when it 
 was put in. In fact it was a perfect sweet ensilage. 
 The stock ate it all, and it was food that would 
 make butter or beef. 
 
 ' ' For the past three winters I have kept an aver- 
 age of three cows per acre with ensilage grown on 
 land that would not produce an average of one ton 
 of hay. ■ The past season I had twenty-four acres 
 of the large, southern white corn planted in drills 
 three feet apart, that produced 19,072 cubic feet of 
 pressed ensilage that will keep ninety cows seven 
 months. Cows not giving milk will gain in flesh 
 without other feed. I estimated, while cutting the 
 corn, that I had at least fifty bushels ears per acre, 
 about one-half ot which was glazed. 
 
 " The estimated cost of fitting the land and cul- 
 tivating the corn was $84. The actual cost of seed 
 and harvesting and putting in the silo was $176.90 — 
 making a total cost of $260.90; or a cost in round 
 numbers ol $10.87. P^r ^t^re ; or of $2.90 for the 
 principal ration of a milch cow ; or a full ration for 
 a dry cow lor seven months, more than equal in 
 feeding value to 4,200 pounds of hay. 
 
 " If the farmer will take his pencil and will figure 
 a little he can easily find how much an acre of corn 
 will cost him. If he has a good crop, and puts it in 
 the silo, he will be surprised at the dividend the one 
 acre of good corn will pay him." 
 
 Now, it will be very apparent to any one who 
 gives due consideration to these facts that if a sys- 
 tem of intensive farming can be applied to the vast 
 portion of the area of this country in which Indian 
 corn can be raised, or where maize and wheat are 
 optional or alternate crops, and that by this method 
 the production of meat and dairy products will 
 yield such an excess of manure as may be required 
 to maintain the wheat field, it follows of necessity 
 that the cost of all these products, i. e., grain, 
 meat and dairy products, will be reduced to a min- 
 imum which has not yet been attained with respect 
 to either. 
 
THE WHEAT SUPPLY. 
 
 15 
 
 At the risk of crowding your columns yet more, I 
 venture to give one more letter from a correspond- 
 ent dwelling upon what is known as the "blue- 
 grass" land of the middle south. Blue grass 
 {Poa fratensis) thrives in Virginia and North Caro- 
 lina, but especially in what is known as the " blue- 
 grass section" of Kentucky. The soil of this sec- 
 tion of the state is underlaid with rotten limestone, 
 filled with flakes of soluble phosphate. A blue- 
 grass pasture when cultivated and devoted to wheat 
 vrill yield thirty bushels to the acre without fertiliz- 
 ing. If hemp be raised upon it for two successive 
 years, and rotted upon the land, the next crop of 
 wheat will reach fifty bushels per acre. 
 
 This part of the country is well known, but the 
 terra almost incognita of this country is now to be 
 found in the middle or mountain section of the 
 south, embracing the Cumberland plateau on the 
 west and the Piedmont plateau on the east of the 
 great Apalachian chain. The potential of this sec- 
 tion in the production of wheat, corn, wool and 
 other products is as yet an almost absolutely un- 
 known quantity. 
 
 Saltville is in a loop of blue grass land, in south- 
 western Virginia, near Kentucky. 
 
 "Saltville Stock Farm, ) 
 Saltville, Va., February 9, 1886. 5 
 
 "Mr. Edward Atkinson, Boston, Mass. 
 
 " Dear Sis — I beg to acknowledge the receipt of 
 your valued favor of the 2d inst., and also to thank 
 you for the Massachusetts Ploughman. I have been 
 very much interested in reading the discussion on 
 the subject of the production of beef in New Eng- 
 land and the east, and have long been of the 
 opinion that it could be produced to better ad- 
 vantage and with better profit in the east than it 
 could in the west, taking the price which it could be 
 sold for, quality, etc. , into consideration ; and that 
 it only needed the same kind of ' ' brain and capital 
 that is engaged in the manufacture of cotton to 
 demonstrate the fact. 
 
 " In reply to your questions : I am like most 
 farmers; I do not keep my accounts enough in 
 detail to enable me to say accurately what any one 
 product costs. The farm that I have has 10,500 
 acres ; about one-half in grass and cultivation. I 
 made a crop of tobacco last year of 60,000 pounds. 
 I have 2,800 sheep, 150 horses (mainly Clydesdales) 
 and about 600 head of cattle, of which 450 are regis- 
 tered Shorthorns, being the largest herd of regis- 
 tered Shorthorns in the world. The cost of all are 
 so blended that I cannot give you the exact figures 
 for any one product, though I can give an estimate 
 that is satisfactory to my own mind, but it would be 
 more satisfactory if I could give you the cost in 
 figures, the same as you can the cost of a yard of 
 calico ; but I will give you my estimate the best that 
 I can. 
 
 "Question ist. At what cost can you put good 
 corn ensilage into the silo ? 
 
 "Answer. I estimate that corn which will yield 
 60 bushels per acre will make 30 tons of ensilage 
 per acre, and that it can be grown and put into the 
 silo at $1.30 per ton. 
 
 "Question 2d. How many tons will carry a steer 
 one year for green fodder ? 
 
 "Answer. I think that 40 pounds (per day) is a 
 large feed for a yearling steer, and 75 pounds for a 
 two-year-old steer. 
 
 " Question 3d. What do you feed with the green 
 fodder ? 
 
 "Answer. This depends much on the kind of 
 cattle, and how they are to be handled. If they are 
 to go on grass in the spring, good sweet ensilage 
 will keep them growing all winter ; if they are to 
 go to the butcher in, say, June or July following, I 
 feed thera all of the cotton-seed meal and corn 
 (ground with the cob) that they can digest. Cotton- 
 seed meal costs $20 per ton at this depot. 
 
 "Question 4th. At what cost can you make a 
 steer ready for the butcher at twenty months old ? 
 
 ' ' Answer. Very much depends on the treatment 
 and care of the feeder, and whether fed on grain 
 and ensilage or partly on grass, as in this part of 
 the country. A steer is simply a machine for 
 making beef and fat ; and you might as well under- 
 take to run a large steam engine with little or no 
 fuel as to make beef without plenty of food, and 
 feeding it as carefully as you would feed an engine ; 
 and it will pay for attention as well as an engine. I 
 estimate that I can make beef here of the best 
 quality at 4c. per pound, live weight, and that it 
 can be made in New England at 5c. per pound, 
 and that the steer should weigh from 1,400 to 1,500 
 pounds at 20 to 24 months old. 
 
 " The making of beef is in its infancy in the 
 United States, and, in my opinion, the eastern 
 states will hold their own with the west as soon as 
 more capital and brains take hold of the matter, as 
 they have of other manufacturing interests. I be- 
 lieve that large sums could be made, and a better 
 return on the capital secured, than in any other 
 manufacturing business. Yours very truly, 
 
 " Geo. W. Palmer." 
 
 It may happen that this promised supply of bread, 
 meat and dairy products at a diminishing cost will 
 not be welcome to a small number of persons in 
 Great Britain, however satisfactory it may be to the 
 great majority. It will not, therefore, be amiss to 
 call attention to some of the effects of the attempts 
 which have been made on the continent of Europe 
 to obstruct the import of food from this country. 
 
 In the year 1880, out of 17,500,000 persons who 
 did the work of this country — mental, mechanical 
 and manual— 8,000,000 were occupied in agriculture 
 or upon railroads in moving the products of agri- 
 
i6 
 
 THE WHEAT SUPPLY. 
 
 culture to the points of wholesale distribution or of 
 export. In that year i7*/io per cent, in value of the 
 products of agriculture were exported, representing 
 by ratio to persons employed over 1,400,000 farmers 
 and railway employees who thus depended upon a 
 foreign market for the sale of their products. In 
 the present population of the United States, num- 
 bering over 60,000,000, doubtless 20,000,000 are oc- 
 cupied for gain, of whom at least 9,000,000 would 
 be found engaged in agriculture or in moving, farm 
 products by rail to distributive centers. In conse- 
 quence of the exclusion of our farm products from 
 the continent of Europe our exports of food have 
 fallen off materially ; hence it has become necessary 
 to find additional occupation in the manufacturing 
 and mechanic arts ; and as the home market was al- 
 ready fully supplied with such products as could be 
 profitably made for use in this country, this force, 
 whatever it may number, which has been diverted 
 from agriculture to other arts by a check to our ex- 
 ports, an outlet has been found for the increased 
 product of manufactured goods in the great increase 
 in our exports of this class. Thus it happens that 
 Germany, France and other continental states, by 
 obstructing the import of food at low cost, have in- 
 creased the cost of manufafctures in their respective 
 countries while decreasing the price of food to some 
 extent in this country ; and they have given a stim- 
 ulus to the export of manufactures from this coun- 
 try in competition with themselves which might not 
 otherwise have occurred so soon. 
 
 There is hardly any stimulus which could be 
 given to the manufacture of goods in this country 
 for export so great as that which would ensue from 
 the imposition of duties on the products of our ag- 
 riculture in Great Britain, where we find our princi- 
 pal export market. 
 
 The working of the^e forces is now being more 
 fully comprehended in this country than ever be- 
 fore ; hence the prospective reduction or abatement 
 of the duties on crude or partly manufactured goods 
 for use in our domestic manirfactures imported into 
 this country may presently give an additional stimu- 
 lus to our export of manufactured goods by reduc- 
 ing the cost of the materials ; the balance of our 
 population, as between manufacturing and agricul- 
 tural, will then be attained under more natural con- 
 ditions than now exist. 
 
 In concluding this subject permit me to call the 
 attention of those who have been unable to accept 
 my general statements until they have been sup- 
 ported in detail with adequate testimony, coupled 
 with the citation of competent authorities on every 
 point, to the fact that this is a commercial age, in 
 which the most important changes in the social sys- 
 tem of nations may depend upon the fraction of a 
 penny, which being considered by itself might seem 
 to be an insignificant factor. For instance, what 
 might have been the reply of any ordinary British 
 
 observer in the year 1869 had any one then said to 
 him in England, " If President Vanderbilt of the 
 New York Central Railroad can reduce the cost of 
 moving provisions a ha'penny per ton per mile on 
 the consolidated railway line which he has just now 
 organized between New York and Chicago, it will 
 change all the conditions of agriculture and will 
 profoundly affect the existing order of society in 
 Great Britain." 
 
 There' are six great railway lines which enter 
 Chicago from the west ; and there are twenty corpo- 
 rations which, consolidated under four systems, 
 connect Chicago with the eastern seaboard. These 
 twenty-six hues carry about one-half the whole of 
 all the merchandise which is moved by railway in 
 the United States. Their average charge from 
 i865 to 1873, inclusive, was 2.315c. per ton per 
 mile.. Their average charge from 1874 to 1885, in- 
 clusive, was 1.196c. per ton per mile. The differ- 
 ence is only 1.119c. per ton per mile, a fraction over 
 a ha'penny. What of it ? That simple statement 
 would mean nothing except to one who has mas- 
 tered the railway problem. In fact, it means this : 
 Had the merchandise, consisting to the extent of 
 more than one-half of the grain and other^provis- 
 ions which was moved over these lines in the second 
 period, been charged the difference of 1.119c. per 
 ton per mile above the actual rate which was 
 charged, the sum 0/ such additional cost to the 
 consumers of the food, fuel, materials for clothing 
 and shelter would have been a little over seventeen 
 hundred and fifty-six million dollars ($1,756,000,000) 
 or ;^36i, 317,000. Between 1873 and 1876 the aver- 
 age rate fell for the first time below ic. a ton a mile 
 east of Chicago. In that period the previous bal- 
 ance of trade was reversed ; the United States 
 afterwards became a creditor country on its mer- 
 chandise account. From 1876 to 1885, inclusive, 
 the excess of exports, chiefly consisting of cotton, 
 provisions and grain, amounted to ($1,574,021,528), 
 nearly sixteen hundred million dollars, somewhat 
 less than the difference in the charge on one-half 
 the railway traffic. 
 
 It may be assumed that an even greater reduction 
 in the cost of moving merchandise occurred on the 
 other half of the railway lines ; or rather, that it 
 first became possible to move products by railway 
 by the extension or construction of these other 
 lines. It has been on this ha'penny per ton per 
 mile that the United States were enabled to resume 
 specie payment in 1879, and out of the savings 
 which have accrued from this gain of a litUe over 
 IC. a ton per mile in the railway service we have 
 paid more than one-half of our national debt. 
 
 With this statement I leave the wheat question 
 to the tender mercies of my critics, awaiting their 
 further exceptions or interrogatories. 
 
 Edward Atkinson. 
 
 Boston, Mass., U. S. A., Januaiy, 1888,