ffixMyf'^^ e ,7 Cornell University Law Library. THE GIFT OF LILLIAN HUFFCUT BINGHAMTON, N. Y. NOVEMBER 27, 1915 9181 Cornell University Library E 183.7.A51 Fore an policy of the United States: pol 3 1924 024 896 221 The Foreign Policy OF THE United States: Political and Commercial. Addresses and Discussion at the Annual Meeting of the \ America n Academy of Political and Social Science , April 7-8, 1899. PHILADELPHIA : American Academy op Political and Social Science. 1899. The original of this book is in the Cornell University Library. There are no known copyright restrictions in the United States on the use of the text. http://www.archive.org/details/cu31924024896221 v /^ -<^< CONTENTS. PAGE The Government op Dependencies. Addresses : Theodore S. Woolsey, Yale University 3 E. W. HufFcut, Cornell University 19 A Lawrence Lowell, Harvard University 46 W. Alleyne Ireland, London 60 Discussion : Talcott Williams, Philadelphia 65 Leo S. Rowe, University of Pennsylvania 70 Militarism and Democracy. Address : Carl Schurz 77 Commercial Relations of the United States with the Far East. Addresses : Worthington C. Ford, Boston 107 Robert T. Hill, Washington 131 Discussion : John Foord, New York 144 William P. Wilson, Philadelphia 154 Emory R. Johnson, University of Pennsylvania . . 158 The Political Relations op the United States with the Far East. Addresses : John Bassett Moore, Columbia University 163 His Excellency Wu Ting-fang 168 Discussion : Lindley M. Keasbey, Bryn Mawr College 177 Frederick W. Williams, Yale University 184 APPENDICES I. Report op Annual Meeting 201 II. Introductory Addresses of the President, Profes- sor Edmund J. James. The Academy and its Work 205 Introducing Hon. Carl Schurz 212 The East and the West 215, (iii) The Government of Dependencies. Addresses and Discussions. THE GOVERNMENT OF DEPENDENCIES. Theodore S. Woolsey, Professor of International Law, Yale University. In every state with colonies, its government of them must depend upon two factors: (i) the prevailing theory of the dependent relation; (2) the constitutional limitations, if any, under which it lives. There are two theories to de- fine the relationship between a state and its dependencies. One considers them property from which an income is to be drawn; the other considers them a kind of trust, to be administered for the benefit of their inhabitants. A good example of the first is the Dutch rule in Java. The Javanese number approximately twenty-five millions. They are governed by two-fifths of one per cent of their number of Europeans. The island is considered a sort of huge farm by the government of the Netherlands. The method of administration, called the "culture system," is one of forced labor. Introduced in 1830, under the influ- ence of a more enlightened public sentiment it is now dis- appearing. At times it has paid a surplus as high as ten million dollars into the Dutch treasury: but this has given place to a deficit. Under it, the Dutch government dis- couraged European immigration, education and missionary labor. There was no autonomy. Generally speaking there was no private property. And the result was that the natives deteriorated in artistic, industrial and scientific pro- cesses. If we look for examples of the other, the trust theory, we shall find a very general opinion that the British system is best worth copying. During the second quarter of the present century, Great Britain finally gave her various de- pendencies self-government, unrestricted trade and reform (3) 4 Annai 202 3,288,282 132,729 1,812,414 1893 • 27,454,220 3,189,7" 68,423 1,724,972 1894 . 19,426,522 3,981,377 360,492 2,226,247 1895 . 23,695,957 4,559,242 806,058 1,656,692 1896 . 25,537,038 7,640,250 1,481,056 3,149,527 1897 . 24,009,756 I 3,233,97o 2,345,016 4,222,383 1898 . 25,223,610 20,354,689 7,428,226 3,592,587 Total. $70,891,069 $13,133,431 $27,940,175 The great distributing centre of Asiatic trade, Hong Kong, has not held its own in the commerce of the United States, and has suffered through more direct means of communica- tion. Its share in our trade is so small as to be inappreci- able, though in our trade with Asia it still receives $6,233,607 of our exports, and handles $746,517 of merchandise sent to Commercial Relations with the Far Fast, hi this country. In any calculation of the trend of our trade with Asia, Hong Kong may be passed over in the statistics, but examined for its lessons. Other than independent (I still apply the adjective to China) countries are counted in the Asiatic returns — the colonial possessions of Great Britain and the Netherlands, and even Aden and Turkey in Asia. But it is to China and Japan that I wish to call particular attention, and if I deal at greater length with China, it is because so much stress is laid upon our future commerce within rather than with that empire. On that future must the prosperity of the Philip- pines rest; and on that future hang our relations to Europe — entangling alliances imposed upon us by commercial ambi- tion. Let us measure crudely the export trade of the United States to China. For the ten years, 1889-98, the value of our domestic exports sent to that empire was $62,289,980, of which 87 per cent was made up by two articles of export — cotton cloths and refined mineral oil. In 1889 the pro- portion of the exports for that year given by these articles was 87 per cent; in 1893, ^ ve years later, 88 per cent, and in 1898, another interval of five years, 80 per cent. Up to 1898, it was 87 per cent and over, almost without a break. Taking the exports to Japan in the same manner, it is found that the total for the ten years was $70,891,069, and of this total raw cotton made $13,133,431, and refined min- eral oil $27,940,175, or the two, 58 per cent of the whole. Of the increase in the exports since 1889 ($15,738,977) ra w cotton gave nearly one-half ($7,425,985). The stationary character of the trade in one country and the elasticity of the demand in the other could hardly be more clearly" or simply demonstrated than by these figures. In 1889 raw cotton did not enter appreciably in the export returns to. Japan; in 1898, it made more than 36 per cent. China is poor and not rich. One of the latest and in many- respects most intelligent surveys of China says: " There is; in China a dreadful poverty of the masses due to rapid ii2 Annai^ of the American Academy. increase of population, wherever a district has been spared rebellion and famine for a few tens of years."* The vast population is never far removed from famine, and only by constant industry of the most exacting kind can life be sus- tained. I^arge numbers of Chinese flock to other lands to obtain a living. They have swarmed down the Malay Peninsula, crossed to the Philippines and attempted to gain a foothold in Australia. They are numerous in the Hawaiian Islands, and have secured the hostile notice of both the United States and the Dominion of Canada. The Chinaman is the laborer for the world, and carries his patient and persistent industry wherever permitted, and his frugal habits enable him to save from wages that no other free laborer would accept. The coolie is a privileged worker compared to him. Wherever tested and an opportunity given, the Chinaman has proved himself a good worker. The problem then to be settled is how this hive of potential industry can be made to work on the natural resources of China for the benefit of the nations of the West. No one denies the possibilities of Asia; its coal fields, its iron, its tin and its copper de- posits; its wonderful waterways, and its population that always seems to offer a market rich beyond description. Against this rosy picture must be set the poverty of the peo- ple; their conservatism and hatred of the foreigner; and their decay of enterprise, a decay that has persisted in spite of the touch of Western commerce, and the lesson of defeat at the hands of the Japanese. Now Europe steps in to realize the possibilities, and offers to lead and organize the economic forces of China, so that they may become truly productive and yield handsome dividends to these unselfish civilizers and concessionnaires. If this development occurs the whole world expects to share in the benefits, and the United States will ask to have its share. But in one direction, more than in another; in imports, rather than exports. In opening new territory by * Blackburn Report (Bourne), 10. Commercial Relations with the Par East. 113 making it accessible, and thus giving to the population an outlet for their products, the world's supply of certain articles will be that much increased. Tea, silk, raw cotton, wool, hides, mats and straw braids — these are the great articles of China's export trade with occidentals, and in these lines must the first influence of new conditions be felt. Later will come the greater changes which portend almost to revolutionize industry — the opening and working of coal mines, of iron, copper, tin and even gold deposits, mineral resources hardly touched and known to be large. Given an abundance of cheap labor, a certain and cheap transpor- tation to the coast, and the old sources of supply must feel the influence of these new rivals. If the raw materials are worked on the spot or in the coast cities, great industrial enterprises run without regard to the cost of life — the cheapest product in China — it is possible to picture the con- dition apprehended by Pearson, the overrunning of Europe and America with the products of the yellow races. Each nation will strive to secure the utmost gain, for combinations will hardly be possible, and production will attain a great pitch of quantity and of lowness of price. In place of hiring and transporting coolies to distant plantations, this labor will be available on the spot; and instead of being an import of value, the very plenty will make it cheap; while care and protection will cause it to increase. Exports will thus be without hindrance. How about the imports? In this question the United States has a lasting interest, and a great uncertainty. Of the imports into China, cotton goods hold the first place, opium the second, rice the third, and metal manufactures and mineral oil are of equal importance, as fourth and fifth on the list. In no one item of this enumeration has the United States a natural monopoly; in only one (petroleum) has it a partial monopoly, fast being impaired; and in two (rice and opium) it has and can have no share. Even assum- ing that China remains as she is, and the ports held by Europe, a cordon of duties would check any growth of our ii4 Annals oe the American Academy. exports whether from the United States or the Philippines. The English territory will probably be free, though it is by no means certain that with duties on all sides, her manufac- turers will not demand some assurance of the markets they are taxed to maintain and defend. Elsewhere our products will meet with discriminating tariffs designed to secure the cream of the trade for the mother country. Where will the increase in our export trade be sought ? But China will not remain as she is. France, Germany, Italy, England, Russia — these nations have gone to Asia for a purpose . They intend to build railroads, open and develop mines, establish industries, and secure all they can from a -careful attention to encouraging competition on Asiatic con- ditions. In place of wanting cottons, products of iron and Steel, or other metals, or rice, China will utilize her own resources. This may be a work of time, but under the stim- ulus of so many competitors it will not require many years to bring it to pass. Every ton of iron, of copper or of tin wrought into metal ware in China; every pound of wool or of cotton, or of silk made into cloth in the provinces, will reduce the necessity of importing them from other countries. A mere comparison of commercial details develops the distinction between Japan and China — a living and pushing people and a decayed and dying empire. In Japan opium does not stand prominent in the import returns, but the leading place is taken by raw cotton. Second in place is sugar, the consumption of which is by some regarded as a gauge of civilization. Textile and metal manufactures form a large item, and the imports of machinery have increased more than sevenfold in ten years. Not raising sufficient food for its people, it is from other countries that the necessary grains must be obtained. The ability to buy of foreign nations has increased from $29,700,000 in 1886 to $94, 800,000 In 1896, and the purchases have all been in needed or useful commodities. To pay for these imports some domestic products were called for, and herein the organizing ability of the Japanese Commercial Relations with the Far East. 115 came into play. Tea and silk were the two important arti- cles of export, the same that China sent into the world's com- merce. The problem then presented was how a larger share in the existing market for these commodities could be obtained, and a share in any increase of market offered. China, by neglect of reasonable precautions, suffered the quality of both her tea and silk to degenerate, and the outside buyers were not slow to determine this fact. The value of teas exported from China has hardly varied in the last thirteen years, nor has raw silk followed another course. Only in silk cocoons and in manufactured piece goods of silk (in- cluding pongees) has there been an increased export. Japan, on the other hand, paid great attention to her products, and has reaped her reward. The exports of silk have doubled since 1885, and those of silk manufactures have risen from less than 270,000 yen in 1885 to 16,232,000 yen in 1895, and have attracted hostile duties in both France and the United States. The movement of tea has not been so progressive, showing only a small increase; but coal has quadrupled (2,004,000 yen in 1885, and 9,018,000 yen in 1896) due to Indian competition; cotton manufactures have gone from 181,000 yen in 1885 to 3,378,000 yen in 1896; manufactures of wood, bamboos, etc., from 112,000 yen to 6,129,000 yen; and of copper (raw) from 8,183,000 catties to 11,241,000 catties. In the aggregate, the exports have increased from $31,630,000 in 1885 to $61,571,000 in 1896. Many have seen in this advance a picture in small of what will occur in China on a grand scale. There are certain differences that may be noted. The character of the two peoples are different, and the Japanese have much higher organizing powers. "The truth is that a man of good physical and intellectual qualities, regarded merely as an economical factor, is turned out cheaper by the Chinese than by any other race; he is deficient in the higher moral quali- ties, individual trustworthiness, public spirit, sense of duty and active courage, a group of qualities perhaps best repre- sented in our language by the word manliness; but in the n6 Annaw of the American Academy. humbler moral qualities of patience, mental and physical, and perseverance in labor, he is unrivaled. . . . " European superintendence is essential precisely because of their moral shortcomings above stated. Judged by our standards, we must pronounce all organizations in China (with a few exceptions) above the family and the small business partnership, to be hopeless failure. The upper class seem to lack the moral tone to carry on by enterprises; indeed the laws and the courts of justice are wanting as well as the men."* Japan fearlessly went into the money markets and obtained the capital needed for her enterprises. China is held under a crushing weight of custom, of stagnating civilization, and is to be in tutelage for the account and profit of others. No one can doubt for a moment that Europe does not regard the coast provinces as the end of their leases or cessions, or occupations. It is the great interior of China they have in view, and are so anxious to develop. The claim of Italy may be taken as a sample. A lease of the bay, and three islands in it — these matters are first; then the right to build a railroad to Po-yan Lake about one hundred and fifty miles from the sea is claimed, a claim that extends to running the railroad after construction. This is important, as many rivers empty into tnis lake, navigable into the interior of the surrounding country. Finally preferential mining and rail- road rights within a sphere of influence covering two-thirds of the province of Che-kiang — a province containing 36,000 square miles (about one-third as much as Italy her- self) and a population estimated at 20,000,000 ( about two- thirds the present population of Italy). So France in Tonking has her eye on Yunnan, and England, at the mouth of the Yang-tze, hungers for the trade of provinces 1,500 miles from that mouth, but only to be reached through it at present. Germany and Russia are no more neglectful of the prospective virtues of hinterlands. A map colored to meet the wishes of these land grabbers would resemble that of the •Blackburn Report (Bourne), 9. Commercial Relations with the Far East. 117 American colonies of England, when charters were granted to extend from the Atlantic Coast to the South Sea. So anxious are they to obtain a part of what is lying waste that combinations are made like the Anglo-German negotiations for a railway from Tien-tsin to Chin-kiang; and the railroad enterprise over which England and Russia have nearly come to blows. There are certain obstacles which stand in the path of the commercial development of China, and these obstacles now effect the merchants and products of all nations trading with the Chinese, though not in an equal degree. There is the natural disadvantage of the want of roads and easy access to the interior provinces. There are the rivers, to be sure, and they are great waterways. Apart from them the system of porters is used, a slow, painful and somewhat costly process of transportation. For many commodities it is prohibitive, and it practically confines the export interests of the far western provinces to such products as are of small bulk, and high value — silk and opium. The mountainous regions have mere tracks rather than roads, so narrow that the shoulder poles cannot be used; and a light frame strapped on the back of the coolie takes its place. "The weight which a coolie can carry in this way is perfectly astonishing, and it is a common sight to see him struggling over the most execrable roads having on his back three bundles of Sha-si made cloth, each containing thirty-nine pieces, equal to a load of 220 pounds. Of cotton yarn the load is 160 pounds, and one frequently meets coolies carrying 160 pounds of tin or copper, which has come from the mines in the district of the Tung-chuan."* Pack animals are not gen- erally used, a coolie can carry a larger load, and while he takes a longer time is quite as cheap— 35. 2d. being a charge for 130 miles. The first change must be toward constructing better roads where water carriage is not available. Cochin China and Tonking are favored by their many water courses, both ♦ Blackburn Report, Neville and Bell, 78. 118 ANNAI5 OF THE AMERICAN ACADEMY. rivers and canals. Not only do these favor the cultivation of rice, but permit a ready shipment of the crop, just as Virginia and North Carolina were favored in their rice and tobacco days by the same means of getting direct to the plantations. Annam and Cambodia are wanting in rivers. The West River of China is not available to trade; but the Red River promises a means for the French to reach Yunnan — called ' ' the natural economic complement to Indo-China. ' ' Even the further sections of the Yang-tze offer serious problems to the navigator — rapids and a rise of seventy feet during the freshets. The Yellow River is more uncertain in its course than our Mississippi, and it is a common occur- rence for it to leave its bed, plow a new course through a densely populated country, carrying death and destruction in its new path, and leaving drought and famine in its old. Railroads will supplement river traffic but can never super- sede it; and for some time railroad ventures will be costly, uncertain and experimental. Good means of transport and communication will avail little without a thorough revision of the tax question. This means a reform of provincial or local administration. The likin on imports and the duties on exports not only limit the distribution and consumption of foreign products, but place China at a disadvantage with rival peoples. The existence of these taxes is an encouragement to official corruption, and it is estimated that of every three taels collected, only one reaches the imperial treasury. The burdens imposed by a series of likin barriers, each one taking its toll at a rate fixed by the local authority, involve serious loss and discourage- ment to trade. Hong Kong is the natural port for the southern provinces. But the impositions levied on merchan- dise on the West River make it more profitable to take goods intended for Kwang-si to the seaport of Pakhoi, thence partly by boats and partly by porters to the upper waters of the West River, a journey of eight days. One reason for resorting to coolies is the desire to avoid likin stations. The likin question has in a measure determined the position Commercial Relations with the Far East. 119 of the foreign merchant in China. Generally speaking it has been the treaties with foreign countries that fixed the rights and privileges of the foreigner on Chinese territory. But a subtler and even more powerful influence has neutral- ized the advantages expected to flow from treaty provisions, and a change of some moment has been wrought so quietly and yet with such determination, that the foreigner, as mer- chant, may be said to be out of China. What has been the position of a merchant in China until a very recent time ? He possessed a bare right to import and export at certain ports established by treaty. In these ports he occupied a " concession," that is a piece of ground leased by the Chinese Government to his own government, and sublet to the merchant; or a "settlement," an area within which he may lease land directly from the native authorities. He could not manufacture, he could not mine or engage in agriculture. He was a mere commission mer- chant, for outside of these places, the internal trade is in the hands of the Chinese, "excellent peddlers" as they are. Of late some concessions have been made. By treaty privi- lege steamers may be sent up the Yangtze to Ch'ung-king, a distance of 1,400 miles from the sea. Under the treaty of Shimonoseki the right to manufacture has been granted and machinery may be imported. Twenty-one ports are treaty or open ports.* It was the purpose of the negotiator of the treaty of Tientsin to lighten some of the burden of these likin or local charges, and the transit pass system was the outcome. On payment of the legal customs duty at the port of entry, and one-half that tariff in addition, goods, whether import or export, should be free to pass between the port of shipment or entry, to or from any part of China, without further charge of toll, octroi, or tax of any description whatsoever, f * These are : New Chwang, Tient-sin, Chefoo, on the northern coast ; Chung- king, I-Chang, Shasi, Hankow, Kiu-kiang, Wuhu, Chinkiang, and Shanghai, on the Yang-tze River, Niogpo, Wenchow, Foochow, Amoy, Swatow, Canton, Hoihow (Kiungchow), and Pakhoi, on the coast south of the Yang-tze ; and Hang-chow and Soo-chow, two cities in the neighborhood of Shanghai. t I no in S"»o tOO* N\0 "IN • m • • *"*T, p*cfi o-^ ■*»-r . . . vo w (VI M N CO mo" N N . M MVO MM MM VO Ov -tO Ov ■ NO*. 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All writers and observers agree that the Chinaman as an indi- vidual is competent and industrious, possessing in some respects more sterling qualities of manhood than the Japanese, and that it is only the hopeless political degrada- tion that keeps him reduced to the lowest industrial plane, his opportunities now being restricted to agricultural pur- suits, peddling, and performing the functions of the beast of burden. 3. The introduction of Western civilization and govern- ment will stimulate mining, manufacturing, mechanical, transportation, and all the modern occupations which increase personal remuneration, add to the volume of circu- lation, and create demand and market for articles of civil- ized commerce now unknown to the people. One may pooh-pooh at the quantity of cotton goods and bric-a-brac which constitutes the present commerce of China, but the world knows that the vast area of that decrepit empire is to be net-worked with railroads and telegraph lines opening up the vast mineral resources which are demanded in the world's arts and industries, and in these lines we shall find our opportunities for profit. Eu- ropean control of China means opportunity for the young men we are educating in our technical colleges, market for our iron and machinery, and untold profit for our people. Continued Chinese methods present not one ray of hope for our material profit. No one can deny the advantage to our commerce of having Western civilization on the Eastern shore of the Pacific. It will stimulate our merchant marine, upbuild our Pacific Coast, appreciate the importance of our island stations and round out our nationality. What the Atlantic without Europe on the other side would be, the Pacific now is to us with China as it is. ' ' Where will the increase in our export trade be sought ? ' ' asks Mr. Ford. This question is as applicable to all the rest of the world as well as for China. Expansion of trade is a matter which concerns the individual merchant. He must seek and procure his own orders. The argument that every ton of metal wrought in China will reduce the necessity of importing metal wares from other countries is not essentially correct. The Chinese may make plates and utensils or other crude manufactures of 140 Anna:ls op the American Academy. metal, but Americans can make machinery, and in the mechanical education of this country we have a monopoly of capital with which China will not be able to compete for a hundred years even though we made no further progress in that epoch. American mining machinery excels that of any other country and holds its own throughout the world, and the first American spade that enters the undeveloped ore banks of China will stimulate a demand for American mining machinery that will be of multiple effect in increas- ing our trade in that product. Not only this, but American brain and technical skill will predominate in the develop- ment of those mines and American element introduced into China will sympathetically aid trade in other directions. The trade of the United States while measured in aggre- gates to be understood must be considered by particles. It is the smallest individual retail purchase that creates the demand for goods. The pending events will undoubtedly better the purchasing power of the Chinese individual, and this is a side of the question which deserves some considera- tion. The future extension of our trade in foreign countries, China included, must depend much more upon individual exertion than upon governmental aid. Our merchants and manufacturers must win patronage by supplying the best quality of goods at the lowest prices. Such articles will win against the most despicable governmental barriers. If we wish to sell agricultural implements to lands where they use the machete instead of the plough, we must make the best machetes possible and they will win for themselves a market. I seriously think that study of the foreign marts and needs by our manufacturers now would be much more profitable than our contemplation of the political horizon of China in which we are not apt to have a part. Let us inquire a little further into the so-called open and closed-door policies of the European nations in the far East. These are merely the old questions of protection and free trade. Nations endeavor to expand their territory for the benefit of commerce and national development. When territory comes under the protection of the French, the Italian, the German, or any other flag than the English flag, the protective policy of the respective countries will be put in force. It is alleged that the closed door or protection policy is a sub- terfuge of the weak, a relic of the barbaric days of civiliza- tion. We are told that if the European nations secure Commercial Relations with the; Far East. 141 China all of them except England will monopolize it to our exclusion and slam the door of trade in our faces. There is much needless alarm in this subject. There has been much more noise than action and much more fright than fact. It is largely the old cry of wolf ! uttered by a sister nation which is more interested in the question than we and whose interests are more endangered than our own. This is nothing more than the policy which we ourselves have practiced against all other nations for many years. It is true that from a higher theoretical point of view this "closed door" policy is less desirable than that of the open door. It is oftentimes an irritating and from a humanitarian point of view an extremely selfish policy. But we certainly occupy an anomalous position when we stand for the open door abroad and the closed door at home. Instead of becoming panic-stricken by the prospect of the trade of China being placed under the protective policy of European nations, we should contemplate more calmly what the effects of such action will be. The nations engaged in this division have been enforcing this same policy against us in Europe for years. In all European countries except Great Britain the doors of trade are as tightly closed against us as they are or will be in China. Yet in some manner our trade has managed to pass their protective barriers and they collectively consume nearly one- half our products. The Germans in Europe consume $124,- 000,000 worth, or fifteen times as much as the Chinese; Prance, $56,000,000; Belgium, $32,000,000; Netherlands, $50,000,000; Italy, $21,000,000 and Russia $8,000,000. These are all closed-door countries and yet Italy, our next smallest customer among them, with its population of 32,000,000, consumes twice as much of our products as China with its 400,000,000 people. In other words each Italian subject is worth to our trade as much as twelve Chinamen in their present condition. "We do not get a dollar's worth of trade from Europe or any other land that prejudice and intention would not prevent if it could. What is true for Europe is true for China. China will never take from us that which we cannot supply better and cheaper than other nations. In her present deplorable state she will never take much more from us than she now takes and our only hope of increased trade with her lies in the betterment of her civilization. 142 AnnaIvS of the American Academy. What the future political relations of the United States will be in the affairs of the far East no one can prophesy. Protection of trade and subjects is the duty of the nation. Our commercial interests do not necessarily involve or neces- sitate political complications such as the expansion of our territory beyond what has already been acquired as a re- sult of the war with Spain. Public opinion in this country does not desire that the United States should acquire one foot of Chinese territory. Of necessity our policy must be one of drift and observation. For the present we can only jealously guard such rights as we have acquired and be prepared to avail ourselves of all future opportunities, endeavoring through diplomacy to maintain such friendly political relations as will secure equal rights for our goods in competition with those of other nations and the protection of the interests of our citizens who seek investment there. This country within the past few years has made some nota- ble commercial conquests without the acquirement of terri- tory or the suggestion thereof. We have commercially invaded Mexico and become supreme in that field of trade, forcing our goods into her markets which were previously hostile and securing business opportunities of incalculable value. In South Africa, a country which a few years ago seemed more hopeless as a field of trade than the far East, we have found a grand market for our food stuffs and our machinery. The interests of the United States in the far East will be protected and benefited by the friendly relations which we hold with the two greatest countries now engaged in par- titioning China. Both Russia and England hold us to most cordial relations and neither country would dare to discrimi- nate against us in any unusual or unjust way. Both desire to retain our friendship and under these amicable conditions there is great diplomatic opportunity for us. Every foot of the outer world thus far acquired by Eng- land has been to our benefit. Although our chief competitor in the manufacture of textiles, ship- building, etc., this country is nearest to us in blood and ideals and to-day England is one of our chief customers, taking nearly fifty per cent of all that we send abroad. She takes over half of our European exports. Our British neighbors on the north consume twice as much of our products as the rest of North America and more of South America combined. British Commercial Relations with the Far East. 143 Oceanica takes nearly as much from us as China and Japan combined, while we send to the British in Africa three times as much as we do to all the other people of the dark con- tinent. It is but natural that our sympathies should lead us to desire that as much of China as possible should fall under English rule. DISCUSSION. John Foord, Esq., New York City, Secretary, American Asiatic Association. I have been profoundly impressed with the ability and industry dis- played in the preparation of the papers to which we have just listened, and I must pay a special tribute of respect to the earnest intention of their authors to set before you, fairly and impartially, the conditions affecting our commercial relations with the far East. But the fact can hardly have escaped you that the main lines of argument which these papers follow are mutually destructive, and to that extent have relieved me of saying a good deal in reply that might, otherwise, have been necessary. Mr. Ford takes a discouraging view of the future of our trade with China, because he regards the dismemberment of that empire as inevitable, and Mr. Hill takes an optimistic view of it for precisely the same reason. I am in entire agreement with Mr. Ford that our Chinese trade would be a diminishing instead of an increas- ing quantity if China is to be partitioned into spheres of commercial influence, in most of which we should encounter a hostile tariff, and in all of which there would be a pressure, silently but constantly exer- cised, in favor of other merchandise than our own. I disagree abso- lutely with Mr. Hill, and therein I think I voice the sentiments of all Americans who have trade relations with the far East, in assuming that no matter what may be the commercial policy of the powers to whom the control of the Celestial Empire will pass, we should succeed not only in holding our own there, but in greatly increasing our present average of business, simply because of the transformation that the dominance of any form of European civilization would effect in that mass of humanity which we call China. The experience of Mada- gascar is too recent in the business of our manufacturers and exporters of cotton textiles, to admit of any illusions on that point. Here was a trade in which a most promising beginning had been made in 1897, with exports, chiefly in drills and sheetings, of some $550,000, but which one year of French sovereignty, with its accompanying tariff and other methods of exclusion has completely wiped out. I don't think we should have any better chance with the French " sphere " in China, than we have now in Madagascar; I doubt if we should fare much better in the German "sphere," and if we held on to our cotton trade in North China, in spite of the application of a Russian tariff, it would only be till the protected and bounty-fed Moscow manufacturer was able to produce for eleven cents what we are ready to sell for (144) Commercial Relations with the Far East. 145 seven cents. A differential of 60 per cent is quite too high a burden on trade to give the producer against whom it operated much of an opportunity. But I take issue both with Mr. Ford and Mr. Hill in assuming the dis- memberment of China to be inevitable. That seems to me to be tak- ing something for granted which we cannot possibly allow to be taken for granted, in short, it seems like begging the whole question at issue. The partition of China among the great powers of the earth, and the con- sequent girdling of the Chinese coast with a rampart of foreign custom houses, involves certain questions which the people of the United States have not yet passed upon, and which will be answered pretty much as these people may choose to direct. In other words, if the people of this republic make up their minds that the partition of China would be contrary to their interests, the partition of China will not take place. Let us clearly understand the situation as it exists to-day: There are two great powers, Russia and France, whose interests impel them to work for the division of China into zones of exclusive commercial influence, if not into zones of actual political and military control. Neither of these nations produces anything which China needs, in great quantity at least, which cannot be more cheaply produced by its rivals. An open market in China, therefore, means for them next to no market at all, and their influence is necessarily thrown on the side of fencing off markets by the aid of a protective wall of customs duties. There is a third great power whose citizens have shown their ability to hold their own in the commercial competition of the world, but whose attitude in China may best be described as that of waiting to see how the cat is going to jump. On what must be called a frivolous pretext, Germany obtained a footing in Shantung, in the shape of a lease of the land around the entrance of Kiaochau Bay — an acquisition which Herr Von Brandt has euphemistically described as a place in the sunshine by the side of others who are basking in it. The same authority — a former German Minister to China — says: " Far from wishing to restrict the area within which foreign trade and industry can and ought to flourish in China, she (Germany ) will ever advocate the maintenance and extension of commercial relations with the Chinese Empire— not to the exclusion of others, but for the general benefit of humanity. And there is no reason why she should not co-operate to that end with any power animated by the same wishes and aspirations. " It must be admitted, however, that Germany stands for equality of commercial opportunity in China with a difference, since she has cau- tiously reserved for her own manufacturers and capitalists the exclu- sive right to construct railroads, work mines, and, generally speaking, develop the resources of a province half the size of Prussia and a third 146 Annals of the American Academy. more populous. Per contra, Kiaochau has been declared a free port. If there be any doubt as to which side the interests of Germany impel her to take in the struggle to keep the door open to commerce in China, there can be none as to the position which traditional policy and present needs alike require England to occupy. It is quite prob- able that there are Englishmen of light and leading, both in the political and commercial world, who regard, like my friend, Mr. Ford, the partition of China as inevitable and who are, therefore, resigned to the necessity of at once marking out the English sphere of influ- ence and making preparations to defend it against all comers. But it remains as true to-day, as it was a year ago, when the Duke of Devon- shire made the declaration in the House of Lords, " that the princi- ple, and the sole principle, which Her Majesty's Government have had in view in their dealings with China — the principle which has actuated both their declarations at home and their communications with foreign powers — has been that China should remain open to commerce as now, that the facilities at present possessed by British subjects for trading in China and for the employment of British capital in China should not be diminished, but should rather be increased, and that no facili- ties, no concessions in these directions, which may be made to other powers, should be denied to British subjects." It maybe, as Mr. Ford says, that not one of the foreign nations who occupy positions around the coast of China has any interest in maintaining the integ- rity of the empire " unless such maintenance can prevent rivals from securing more than a fair share of the spoils." But there is much significance in that " unless," and it would seem to be hardly neces- sary to assume that the desire to secure a fair share of the trade of China must fall under the same ban as a desire to secure this trade plus a slice of territory. The spoil of military aggression is not pre- cisely the same thing as the fruits of open commercial competition, even if the freedom of that competition has to be assured by a dis- play of superior force. And here, let me say, that Mr. Hill does not seem correctly to ap- prehend how much freedom commerce enjoys in China to-day. There is no " Chinese Wall," in his sense of the phrase, and one by one the obstacles which have been interposed to trade in the interior of the empire are disappearing. Viewed from one side, there are many and irritating obstructions to anything like free commercial exchange between the foreign merchant and the people of China, but, consid- ering how hard and fast must be the hold of tradition over an em- pire that has long outlived all the ancient civilizations of the world, perhaps the wonder should be, not that the process of change is slow Commercial Relations with the Far East. 147 and difficult in China, but that it has gone on of late years with such rapidity. The Chinese tariff is a uniform ad valorem duty of 5 per cent, payable in silver, and that is a very trifling burden on commerce compared with the tariff -which Russia, France or Germany would impose, when the time came to convert a sphere of influence into a. sphere of sovereignty. So far as our treaty rights are concerned, we stand on precisely the same footing as these powers do in China to- day — we enjoy the equality of commercial opportunity known as the " open door," and under such conditions we have no misgivings about the future of our trade. But if there is to be dismemberment, we can have neither part nor lot in it; we have everything to lose and nothing to gain by the division of the empire. We might profit by the liberal policy of Great Britain within what would naturally be her sphere, though that is not where we have had most trade up to the present time; but elsewhere our trade would be at the mercy of whatever discriminating tariff might be declared against it. " Is it consistent," asks Mr. Hill, " to stand for the open door abroad while maintaining a closed door at home?" It is a habit of English-speaking people not to trouble themselves much about the logical sequence of any line of public policy. For reasons sufficient to themselves, the people of the United States have adopted a protec- tive tariff for the better development of their domestic industries. When they find sufficient reason to dispense with this tariff, it will go like the scaffolding of a completed building, which has served its pur- pose. There are some of us who think that most of the protective features of the tariff might be dispensed with now, but I take it that our individual views on that subject have nothing to do with the demand that everybody should occupy the same commercial footing in China. That is a matter also which vitally concerns our interests, and while we can have nothing to say about the efforts of Russia, France and Germany to imitate our protective policy at home, we have the clearest possible right to lodge a protest against the application of their domestic tariff to a country in which they have no more rights than are possessed by ourselves. I must, therefore, doubly take exception to Mr. Ford's phrase about the United States being pitched unexpectedly into this " circle of marauding powers." I am not concerned with the defence of British policy in China, except in so far as it appears to be the only policy that the United States can support, and it may thus be proper to dis- criminate between a power that takes a naval station in Chinese waters as a base for the dismemberment of the empire, and one that takes a station opposite it for the purpose of preventing that dismemberment. Then, as to the unexpectedness of our position in China; is it not a 148 AnnaIvS of the American Academy. fact that we were face to face with precisely the same problems which present themselves to-day, before there was any thought of taking Manila and possessing ourselves of the Philippines ? I admit that had we no interests in China, the possession of the Philippines would be meaningless, but the Chinese question came before the Philippine, not after it, either in time or logical sequence. In December, 1897, it became evident that a situation had been created under which the trade and treaty rights secured by the United States in China might be seriously imperilled. These had already been adversely affected by the agreement made in regard to the Russo-Manchurian Railway, in which it was provided that ' ' goods imported from Russia into China by rail and exported from China to Russia in the same manner shall pay respectively an import or export Chinese duty to the extent of one- third less as compared with the duty imposed at Chinese seaport custom houses. ' ' That must be held to be in clear contravention of the provision of the treaty of 1844 which reads: " Citizens of the United States resorting to China for the purpose of commerce will pay the duties of import and export prescribed in the tariff which is fixed by and made part of this treaty. They shall in no case be subject to other or higher duties than are or shall be required of the people of any other nation whatever, and if additional advantages and privi- leges of whatever description be conceded hereafter by China to any other nation the United States and the citizens thereof shall be entitled thereupon to a complete, equal and impartial participation in the same." The existing status had been further threatened by the virtual supremacy of Russia in Manchuria and the I4aotung peninsula and the consequent danger that the treaty port of Newchwang — more than half of whose imports of cotton textiles come from the United States — might at any time be declared a part of the Russian Empire, and therefore subject to its tariff. In short, the beginnings were only toe- obvious of a process of alienation of sovereignty under which the whole of North China might pass under the dominion of the Czar. As it happens that 80 per cent of all the cotton drills, and over 90 per cent of all the sheetings which the United States exports to China, find their way to the three northern treaty ports of Tientsin, Chefoo and Newchwang, this was a process to which the manufacturing interests of our country could hardly be indifferent. The first body to take action in regard to the threatening situation in China was the New York Chamber of Commerce, to which a very largely signed petition had been addressed, calling upon the chamber "to take such immediate action in the premises as may be deemed expedient and proper, to the end that the present situation may be brought to the Commercial Relations with the Far East. 149 attention of the Department of State at Washington, and that the important interests of the United States, together with existing treaty rights of its citizens in China, may be duly and promptly further safe- guarded." At its meeting in February, 1898, the New York Chamber of Commerce addressed a memorial to the President of the United States in which it was set forth that the trade of the United States with China is rapidly increasing, and is destined with the further opening of that country to assume large proportions, unless arbitrarily debarred by the action of foreign governments. In view of the changes threatening the future development of this trade, the chamber respectfully and earnestly urged that such proper steps be taken as might commend themselves to the wisdom of the President, " for the prompt and energetic defence of the existing treaty rights of our citizens in China, and for the preservation and protection of their important commercial interests in that empire." Similar action was taken by the Chambers of Commerce of Philadelphia, Boston and San Francisco, and the whole subject of American interests in the far East was fairly lifted into the place of commercial and public importance which it is so fully entitled to occupy. That fateful first of May, when Dewey's guns destroyed construc- tions more antique than Spanish men-of-war, did undoubtedly give to the people of the United States a new sense of their nearness to the scene of the strife of international ambitions in the far East, and probably brought home to them a new perception of the impossibility of remaining indifferent to the issue of that struggle. But it did not make manifest, for the first time, the fact that no question of our generation is of such vital moment for the present and future welfare of the American people as this of the preservation of equality of opportunity in a market comprising one-fourth of the entire human race. "We must have a. market or we shall have revolution," is Senator Frye's blunt way of stating that the productive capacity of the country has so far outrun its capacity to consume that a foreign outlet for our surplus products is an absolute necessity to the peace- ful growth of the republic. This brings us to a consideration of what is, perhaps, the main question: What is the value of China as a market ? The experience of the past affords but a slender test of that value. And yet there has been, of late years, a very considerable expansion of our export trade with China. Between 1887 and 1897 there was an increase of 121 per cent in the quantity and of 59^ in the value of our cotton fabrics which that market absorbed. In the same period the imports of American kerosene oil into China increased from 13,613,090 gallons to 48,212,505 gallons. In 1887 the im- ports of plain gray and white cotton piece goods from the United States 150 Annai