fiv ^^■^. yi\>:U- L'^i JH*e ^^' Hi ^i ■"if. -lM%! hate QloUege of Slgricultute 3Vt Cdnrnell InltJecaitH 3tt;«a, 'Si. 1. Cornell University Library HG 297.K2 The gold standard:its causes, its effect nil I 3 1924 013 734 953 Cornell University Library The original of tiiis book is in tine Cornell University Library. There are no known copyright restrictions in the United States on the use of the text. http://www.archive.org/details/cu31924013734953 THE Gold Standard ITS CAUSES, ITS EFFECTS, ITS FUTURE^^nur* ■c ,/''< % FROM THE GERMAN OF ~ '- ^ , BARON WILLIAM VON KARDORFF-WABNITZ. PHILADELPHIA : HENRY CAREY BAIRD & CO., INDUSTRIAL PUBLISHERS, BOOKSELLERS AND IMPORTERS, 8x0 WALNUT STREET, >' / m/ 41 endorsementSj exchanges and clearing houses), while France steadily pursues the opposite pohcy of basing trade principally on a free circulation of metallic money." The pretended saving of interest of the English system is, in my opinion, only apparent and illusory, as the costliness of all the above mentioned artificial means of trade, by which thous- ands not only procure a living, but amass fortunes, is likely to more than offset the saving of interest on a lesser circulation of metal. If we consider further that in the whole English system' of settlement, one form of credit or the other is always uncertain and at the time of a general convulsion of credit depreciates, we shall naturally conclude that one wheel or the other of this com- pHcated machinery must stop oftener than will the simpler meth- ods of balancing and settling as practiced by the French, and that all trade crises are generally of a more malignant and con- tagious character in England than in France. But even if all countries should adopt this system of reducing their stock of metals absolutely to the minimum, it remains very doubtful if, with a more general adoption of the gold standard, the total production of gold would be sufficient to cover abso- lute necessities. The rise, beyond all possible calculations, in the price of gold which followed the establishment of the gold standard in Germany, and which would probably repeat itself in an increased ratio should France also adopt the gold standard, seems to indicate that the demand for, but not the supply of gold is capable of a considerable increase. A prominent geolo- gist, Mr. Siiss, of Vienna, has in his admirable treatise, " The Future of Gold," undertaken to demonstrate that all historical experiences and geological calculations indicate that the present supply and the prospective production of gold can never be suf- ficient to meet the demands of a universal gold standard. Whoever examines the interesting data furnished by Mr. '"Carey — "Resumption," "Monetary Independence, and "Appreciation in the Price of Gold." 42 Siiss, of the immense sums which are annually withdrawn from trade for gilding purposes for instance, and follows his historical proof of the rapid exhaustion of all known gold sources, cannot fail to see that here a calm, objective investigator points out dangers of the gold standard which, with the undoubted influ- ences on civilization exercised by the use in trade of the pre- cious metals, must threaten civilization itself Some have endeavored " to disarm these fears and doubts by pointing: i. To recent important gold discoveries in Austral- asia. 2. To the probability of the discovery of new gold beds in the unexplored regions of Central Asia and Central Africa ; and, principally, 3. To the unexpected discovery of a great ex- pansion of the gold region of Western North America. But if we observe that a not inconsiderable proportion of the advocates of the gold standard, who formerly acknowledged absolutely no difficulty in the general establishment of the gold standard, in Germany are to-day clinging anxiously to the hope that the return of the United States to the double standard will allow us to effect the gold standard — while in England the hope is ex- pressed that Germany will suspend the gold standard and thereby insure its preservation in England ; we may be per- mitted to infer that the doubts of Mr. Siiss are more important and substantial than his opponents were at first disposed to acknowledge. "If," said Mr. Goschen, "all states should resolve on the ad- option of a gold standard, the question arose, would there be sufficient gold for the purpose without a tremendous crisis ? There would be a fear, on the one hand, of a depreciation of silver ; and on the other, of a rise in the value of gold, and a corresponding fall in the prices of all commodities. Again, there was a further important question. Italy, Austria, and Russia, whenever they resumed specie payments would require ■ metal, and if all other states went in the direction of a gold *' "Edinburgh Review." " New Golden Age," January, 1879. 43 standard, these countries too would be forced to use gold. Resumption on their part would be facilitated by the mainten- ance of silver as a part of the Legal Tender of the world. The American proposal for a universal double standard seemed im- possible of realization, but the theory of a universal gold stand- ard was equally Utopian, and, indeed, involved a false Utopia. It was better for the world at large that the two metals should continue in circulation than that one should be universally sub- stituted for the other." " Mr. Goschen, who as has been shown, is known to be one of the most widely recognized authorities on the question under consideration in England, declared at the Conference, that it is of the greatest importance to England to preserve silver as a standard in other countries even if England retains the gold standard. He does not go so far as Mr. Seyd, who logically demands from England the acceptance of the double standard, but acknowledges that the inlflux of both metals into interna- tional trade should continue unchecked ; that it is to the interest of all nations not to lessen the metallic basis of this trade, and that the demonetization of silver by Germany has caused a de- preciation of this metal followed by results injurious to the whole world. It may be said that Mr. Goschen's position lacks logic, but it still proves that the failure to appreciate the importance of main- taining the volume of metallic money, which was the main cause of the demonetization of silver has already been abandoned by the leading financiers of England. *-" International Monetary Conference." Washington, 1879. p. 52. 44 VIII. THE PRINCIPAL OBJECTIONS TO THE DOUBLE STANDARD, AND ONE GREAT OBJECTION TO THE GOLD STANDARD. The most prominent objection to the double standard will always be that the variability of the relative value of the two metals produces fluctuations in the prices of commodities, and a consequent disturbance of trade. That as we should not measure the height of a river with two different water-gauges, we must have either gold or silver as the only standard, namely as a measure of the value of commodities. This objection or- iginates in an undue emphasizing of the function of money as a measure of value. Thus the ruinous effects of the double standard (to which Mr. Bamberger devotes a whole chapter in his ' Imperial Money') are ascribed principally to the discount which always rests on gold or silver, and which is said to have deprived France, for instance, sometimes of silver, sometimes of gold coin, so that the depreciated metal always remained in, and the appreciated one emigrated from the country. The Parisian chief of the house of Rothschild is reported to have said at the time of the estkblishment of the gold standard in Germany, " The Germans appear to me like a man who cuts off a sound arm because he imagines that he will be stronger with one arm than with two." He had evidently observed that France needed both arms — silver and gold — as much during and after the war as before it, and indeed the free influx of both metals into trade appears to have helped to give that strength and elasticity to the French finances which enabled that country not only to overcorrie with ease the hardships of an unhappy 45 war and to pay a contribution of five milliards to Germany, but also to develop the prosperity of the people in an unprece- dented degree. If we admit on the one hand that a discount between gold and silver coin will affect the fluctuations of the prices of commodities, and will, therefore, disturb trade, we must concede, on the other, that this discount, if the double standard as proposed by America was generally accepted, must be reduced to a minimum, if it did not, as Mr. Cernuschi sup- poses, disappear altogether.** And those advocates of the gold standard" who admit that the gold standard has increased and intensified the fluctuations in the relative value of gold and silver, must concede that, so far as international trade with countries having the silver standard is concerned (the whole of Africa, Asia, Mexico, Peru, Chili, etc.) the situation has not been improved but rather im- paired by the gold standard. The advocates of the gold standard further argue that the exclusion of silver prevents the precipitate advance in the prices of all necessaries which would result from an unchecked influx of both metals.*" Born of a theory which we deem erroneous, — that the greatest possible cheapness of all necessaries must be the ideal aim of every national economy, — this opinion . seems to ignore these very important points : 1 . That with free coinage of gold and silver, trade will never consume more metal as money than it will be able to digest. 2. That the experiences of modern history show that an in- creased circulation of metallic money, even though sudden and considerable, has never seriously affe-cted prices, while an infla- tion by banknotes or paper currency does, under certain condi- tions, disturb the equilibrium of prices." This result is practi- "Cernuschi — " Bimetallisme." *'E. Nasse — " Die Demonetisirung des Silbers." ^ Ibid. ■'^Roscher — "Elements of Political Economy." Tooke — " History of Prices." 46 cally explained by the fact that to-day, as Roscher shows, the whole world is a consumer of the streams of gold and silver, and that this large vessel does not alter its level so 'easily; and again, because the increased circulation of metallic money has lessened the necessity for all substitutes for money and me- diums of credit. 3. That the single gold standard presents the opposite dan- ger, viz., that the need of a country for metallic moiiey, which becomes greater with the increase of its population and pros- perity, can not be adequately supplied, as with the expansion of the gold standard the demand for gold, must steadily in- crease, while the stock of metal, by wear, melting, exportation, its application to industrial uses, etc., will be constantly less- ened." Of all civilized countries, Germany, next to the United States, possesses the least supply of metallic money per capita. Even England, where all the different substitutes for money, as checks, etc., are much more extensively employed, has a larger stock of metallic money in proportion to its population. The less the supply of metallic money becomes in Germany, the more general will become the English financial system ; and the greater the power of the capitalist, the more easily will commercial crises occur when capitalists feel obliged to avoid those operations which a larger volume of money had formerly enabled the people to undertake and complete. Frequent complaints are made of the steadily increasing practice of long and complicated credits in Germany ; and it has been shown with apparent justice that if, for instance, the manufacturer buys his raw material on credit, and sells his pro- duct to the wholesale dealer, and he to the retailer, and he to the customer on credit, there must gradually arise so compli- cated a chain of indebtedness that the soundness of the general mercantile business must be undermined. "Siiss — " Die Zukunft des Geldes." 47 It has been pointed out that the stability of French trade is due to the opposite practice of prompt cash payments. It will, however, be well to consider that the French system is made possible by the much larger circulation of metallic money in that country. Knowing that the oil which keeps the great trade-machinery moving — a comparison used by Hume and Kelley — is allowed us in much less proportion than to France, we cannot be surprised that with us the wheels will sooner creak, and that disturbances must occur from which France is exempt. * Hence what our opponents praise as the beneficent result of the demonetization of silver — viz., the check to the increase of the stock of metallic money — appears to us the ruinous effect of the single gold standard. And lastly, we may consider the objection that from the earliest times, a 'gradual modification of the relative value of the two metals to the disadvantage of silver can be proven, and that, for this reason, silver is becoming less and less desirable as a standard metal. The fact of a decrease in the value of silver as compared with gold cannot in general be denied, but wc must also consider the indefiniteness and unreliability of most data as to their relative value, which we find in older works. If in modern times the world was surprised by the discovery that in Japan the ratio of gold and silver was four or five to one, instead of fifteen or fifteen and one-half to one, as in other coun- tries, and this surprising phenomenon eventually found its expla- nation in the fact that a large part of the Japanese gold coins contained only one-third of their weight in gold, we must ad- mit that in olden times many unknown causes may have influ- enced the reports of the relative value of gold and silver. We find that while the Greek coinage of gold and silver re- mained uniform at the rate of twelve to one, ancient Persian inscriptions show their ratio as one to 13.33.** *"E. Seyd — " Decline of Prosperity." p. 83. 48 The depreciation of silver from the age of the Roman Empire (12:1) down to the last two centuries (15.5:1) has been so gradual and imperceptible to each succeeding generation, that, even allowing the probability of its continuance, it could for thousands of years afford no serious excuse for excluding silver from coinage, especially since it may be considered an estab- lished fact that increased or decreased production of either metal has hardly ever seriously affected their relative value, the opposite -view of Mr. Soetbeer has, in my opinion, been finally disposed of by the arnpl? and carefully arranged statistics in Mr. Seyd's " Decline of Prosperity."** In connection with the above stated objections to the double standard, I may be permitted to mention an objection which Mr. Seyd has very properly raised against the gold standard. He traces the demonetization of silver, to its incipient cause, in the coinage of silver fractional currency of less than its full value, which practice, he says, originated in the- times of the " Kipper and Wipper" in Germany. As this deterioration in coinage originally resulted in the use of alloyed silver coins, so the fractional silver coin is an unavoidable concomitant of the gold standard, to carry on the smaller trade of every-day life.*" But this so-called small daily trade from village to town, and from town to village, this small trade within a narrow area, really, as Carey shows, constitutes the large trade of every civil- ized country." Its activity and diversity form a sure scale of the civilization of the people, and the sum total of its trans- actions exceed by far that of any foreign trade. " Is it then," asks Mr. Seyd, "just to force the great mass of the working people to carry on their trade in base pennies? Is it just to force these classes to make their small savings in coins greatly below their «Ibid, p. 85. *"£. Seyd — "Decline of Prosperity." p. 59. "Carey — "Social Science." Vol. I. p., 280, etseq " Appreciation in the Price of Gold." 49 face value? Is it not a crying injustice if the wealthier classes, who enjoy the advantages of commerce, credit, etc., can make, their savings in gold coins of full value, while the laboring classes, who have none or few of these aids, are restricted to base, silver coin ?" " If the leaders of the democracy," he continues, "were men of wit enough to understand such subtle questions as these, there would be a popular outcry against such fearful in- justice, an injustice which lies at the root of many anomalies in the social condition of these and other classes." " The coinage of alloyed fractional currency which is necessi- tated by the single gold standard to facilitate the falsely so- called small trade, yields greater profit to the State than the emission of coins of full value. But this profit is unimportant ; the subsidiary coin being legal tender to a limited amount only, and therefore not exportable, trade is therefore able to accept and permanently use only a small portion of the total circulating medium in the form of fractional coin. Thus there was circu- lated in Germany in 1878, with 1626 million marks of gold coin, only 426 million marks of alloyed silver fractional coin ; and I hardly think that the steady use of a larger amount by trade could have been expected, since it does not bear what Mr. Bamberger justly terms the test of a good coin-exportability. The demand that, in case of a return to the double standard, the limitation of the legal tender of silver coins should be dis- continued, seems only fair in the interests of those classes who are restrained to the use of fractional coins. ""E. Seyd—" Address before British Society of Arts." April, 1878. IX. THE PARIS MONETARY CONFERENCE— THE BLAND SILVER BILL— SUSPENSION OF THE SALES OF SILVER BY THE GERMAN EMPIRE. The ruinous effects of the demonetization of silver had been predicted by Messrs. Wolowski and Seyd, and widely recog- nized and discussed by prominent men (as Carey, Baird, Kelley, Seyd, Wolowski, Lavaleye, Cernuschi, Hucks Gibbs, Baring, Lord Beaconsfield, Goschen, and Siiss) before the international monetary congress convened at Paris in 1878, at the request of the United States, in which Germany refused to participate, This Congress considered the possibility of the remonetization of silver, and, although its adversaries rejoice over its indefinite result, its proceedings certainly demonstrated that the gravity and importance of the question was everywhere appreciated, and that a large majority of the assembled authorities on finance were unanimous on the following points : 1. That the adoption of the gold standard by the German empire caused a fatal disturbance of the previous equilibrium between gold and silver. 2. That a universal adoption of the gold standard must result in a still greater depreciation of all commodities through an in- creased revolution in the relations of prices, and consequently in an increased depression of international trade. The delegates of the United States, France, England, Austria, the Netherlands, Scandinavia, Russia — although its representa- tive was an advocate of the single standard — and Italy, declared unmistakably against a farther extension of the gold standard, which was supported by Belgium and Switzerland only; but the views of the majority differed greatly as to the practical measures necessary to prevent a further depreciation of silver. (50) SI The United States had proposed that the countries repre- sented at the conference should engage to effect the free coin- age of silver, on the basis of a relative value fixed by treaty. This proposition failed partly through the non-participation of Germany, partly through the refusal of England to abandon the single gold standard. Mr. Goschen, the delegate of the English government,- while admitting that the demonetization of silver caused England many troubles, principally on account of the Indian silver standard, expressed the belief that the ex- isting status in the relative value of the two metals would be maintained if either of the gold standard countries, America or Germany, should return to the double standard, or if France should again permit the free coinage of silver. ^ France, represented by M. Say, assumed toward the propo- sal of the United States a position which, while not one of re- jection, was rather one of expectation, and maintained the same reserve toward advice to other countries, since she could not accompany it with any authority. By far the majority, the Netherlands, Scandinavia, Austria, Italy, openly avowed their sympathy with the double standard.^^ To be brief, England expected, as Mr. Cernuschi pointedly remarks, to make a cat's paw of one of the other countries, while France, in view of the non-participation of Germany, could not in my judgment possibly pledge herself to any future monetary policy. In spite of the apparently fruitless proceedings of the Con- gress, it has been followed by two events of great importance as opposing the gold standard, viz., Germany temporarily sus- pended farther sales of silver, and America made the first at- tempt toward the remonetization of silver in the Bland bill. The American government, by recommending the suspension of the coinage of silver dollars, and inviting a new International Conference, has confessed that the Bland bill, which restored a =' Cernuschi — ^Diplom. Mon^taire; p. 46. S2 limited coinage of silver dollars on a basis, discriminating against silver by about three per cent, and, therefore, conflict- ing with the French system, was a step, which has not im- proved, but embarrassed the general situation. Still the ener- getic proceeding of the United States proves their determination to take a most energetic initiative toward the remonetization of silver. As regards the suspension of the sales of silver by Germany, we must not forget that, although the adoption of the gold standard by the German empire had been decreed by law, it had been by no means effectually executed. Silver bars 'and coins form to this day part of the reserve for the notes of the Imperial Bank and the silver thaler is as good a legal tender as the gold piece of the new standard Whether from fear of increased losses from further sales of sil- ver, or from the instinctive presentiment that any haste must force France to adopt irrevocably the gold standard, the German government had resisted the pressure of the friends of the gold standard, and withheld the sales of silver. Germany would, in- deed, have assumed heavy responsibility had she attempted to hinder or prevent any international agreement on the standard question, which through the Paris Conference had become pro- bable. England benefited more than any other country by the sus- pension of the German sales of silver. For the experience which England had had in the decline of her international trade from the demonetization of silver indicates plainly that the re- cent and but half-forgotten commercial crisis would re-appear with increased vigor should the depreciation of silver spread, and should France, for instance, be forced to the adoption of the gold standard. Let us hope that the increased agitation for the double stand- ard, through future international conference or negotiation, may induce England to take a position different from that which Mr. Goschen assumed at the Paris Conference. England, although 53 she would naturally prefer to use another country as cat's paw, must acknowledge that there is small hope of an international agreement so long as she persists in the gold standard. Germany, if she alone should return to the double standard, would risk seeing her gold exported to France, or to the United Sta|;es, for the introduction and maintenance of the gold stand- ard. Similar dangers menace the United States and France in an analagous case ; and if England believes that these three leading countries will agree upon the re-establishment of the double standard, and thus restore to trade the unchecked influx of both metals, she will discover that she has made a fatal mis- calculation. For each of these countries may justly claim : 1. That should the existing crisis continue and increase, their protective tariffs would, in a great measure, insure them against its dangers. 2. That the pressure on international trade caused by the depreciation of silver,, must affect England most injuriously, since that country has the most extended international trade. 3. That the more and more unbearable conflict between the silver standard in India and the gold standard in England — which steadily decreases the flow of silver from India to Eng- land, and seriously complicates the Indian finances — makes it obhgatory upon England to begin the introduction of the double standard simultaneously in both countries. The most experienced English statesmen of both parties have always hesitated to attempt the introduction of the gold stand- ard into India. And it was no secret to the sound mercantile sense of the English that it would be totally impracticable to introduce the double standard in India alone, since any such attempt could result only in the expulsion of Indian gold to to the advantage of other countries. If, therefore, England persists in the opinion of Mr. Goschen, who — contrary to his distinguished countryman Newton — de- nounces the idea of a basis of fixed relative value between the two metals in the coinage of all countries, with the univer- 54 . sal resumption of the double standard (the American propo- sal), as a Utopian scheme, she had better calculate the conse- quences. England should consider that such proceedings may make it impossible for the German government to resist suc- cessfully the pressure of the advocates of the gold standard for its immediate and decided enforcement in Germany ; that in that case France would most probably be whirled into the same current, and that the United States would not care to make single-handed the vain attempt to free the world from the night- mare of the gold standard. I doubt not that the ruinous consequences of such a depre- ciation of silver as must result, will in the end lead humanity to return to the old system of using the two precious metals in trade ; but the responsibility of causing the crisis will rest with England, to whom its dire effects will be most directly and most heavily brought home. X. THE FUTURE MONETARY POLICY. The advocates of the gold standard point with especial de^ light to its introduction into England, Germany and the United States, as a result which developed itself with the irresistibility of a natural law, against whose force all human resistance would have been vain, and to which the remaining countries will also soon succumb. Hitherto, they say, gold and silver peaceably and jointly sufficed for the trade of the world; Tjut now a war has broken out between them, which must end in the destruction of one or the other as a standard metal. A thorough study of the history of the standard question proves this opinion to be entirely unwarrantable. A human ca- price or, if you will, human assurance, induced England to adopt the gold standard, and the singular dualism of England and India, and other causes, prevented this monetary change from producing that immediate depreciation of silver which at once took place when Germany and the United States, infected by her example, imitated England — not yielding to the force of a natural law, but drawn into that current which a zealous propa- ganda of fallacious theory had temporarily produced in public opinion. The present situation is the more cramping and depressing, as the German Empire alone cannot undo accomplished facts without provoking dangers to its economic development which are recognized and appreciated even by decided opponents of the gold standard. The fruitless attempt by the United States to remonetize silver has demonstrated the helplessness of a single country in such an eminently international matter as the stand- ard question; and should Germany attempt alone to resume the double standard, she would either undergo experiences similar (55) 56 to those of the United States when they attempted to adjust the ratio of gold and silver to then present conditions, or would be in danger of losing her gold without arresting the depreciation of silver. However much we may be convinced that Germany, for many reasons, would have done better if she had retained the silver standard with subsidiary gold coinage, and thereby possi- bly prevented the depreciation of silver with its injurious con- sequences, we now find the situation changed : 1. As before intimated, it is questionable whether the isolated return of Germany to the double standard — which virtually means the change to the silver standard — would not lead France and the United States to opposite measures, thus accel- erating rather than checking the depreciation of silver. 2. The objection which was so strongly urged against the Bland silver bill, that the interest on the State obligations is guaranteed in gold,* would be energetically pressed in this case also. 3. Finally, Germany would lose the real advantage gained by her gold standard : in that she has gained a foothold in the English market for her bonds, the competition resulting from v'hich may gradually produce a reduction of our rate of interest, the English rate being generally lower — and which must greatly facilitate the negotiation of state and national loans, England being in fact the great capitalist of the European countries. The great change of railroad bonds into consols — by making the roads, state institutions, for instance — is greatly facihtated and expedited, because England is already a good customer for Prussian consols. If we therefore must renounce the idea that Germany alone could proceed in the matter of standard, we recognize eventually *The interest on United States bonds is not payable mgoid, but in coin, either silver or gold, of the standard value existing at the date of the Re- funding Act. — Translator. 57 an international agreement as the only possible means of re- storing the double standard and remonetizing silver. As has been previously stated, England may have hoped that such an agreement would be concluded between Germany, France and the United States, to which England need not be a party, so that she would be able to retain her gold standard. But the proceedings of the Paris monetary conference have apparently shown England that the position assumed by her delegate is untenable, and that the other great civilized countries, however desirous to prevent further depreciation of silver and its ruinous consequences, will be powerless to settle finally the monetary question so long as England maintains her isolated position. It is evident that no state can guarantee certain future legislation. Such assurances can only be possible if they at once establish a situation which makes it very difficult for any one of the contracting countries to adopt a policy inconsistent with the agreement. Such a situation would ensue, if the contracting states, including England, should determine, at a specified time: 1. To substitute full value silver coins for silver fractional currency. 2. To permit the coinage of both, silver and gold according to the fixed ratio of 15.5 : i. While the non-participation of England in such a convention would admit the possibility that any country might find it to its interest to join England in adherence to the gold standard; the universal adoption of the double standard would make it impos- sible for any country, including England, to re-open the stand- ard question without seriously injuring its own interests. As this palpable deduction must restrain all interested coun- tries from entering into any agreement on the standard question without England, it will on the other hand induce them to ex- ert all their influence«to gain the co-operation of England; and England will be forced to consider whether, by maintaining her isolated position, she will accelerate the depreciation of silver which cannot fail to follow if Germany throws her remaining 58 stock of silver upon the market, thereby obhging France to adopt the gold standard. As I understand it, Germany has, by suspending her sales of silver, intimated that she is not now averse to international negotiations on the standard question, and that she recognizes and appreciates the mischievous results of her demonetization of silver ; but the assumption by England of an attitude of hesita- tion or hostility would force her to continue her present course, to prevent other countries from profiting by her sales of silver, an advantage which must inflict fresh losses upon Germany. The crisis we have endured would be child's play compared with the catastrophe which must result from such a development. Lord Beacon sfield's clear perception and broad view of the im- portance of the standard question ; the lively agitation in the commercial centres of England ; the exhaustiveness of the con- troversy, technical and scientific, by English financiers, permit hope that this repetition and aggravation of the crisis will not be necessary to lead the trade of the world back to the channels in which it has moved for centuries. There is hope that the decision of England in favor of the remonetization of silver, and the establishment of the double standard in England and India, will re-open the influx of both the precious metals which has at all times been so conducive to the progress of civilization. " England," says Mr. Kelley, in conclusion of a short treatise on the double standard, " will be one of the signatory powers to a convention which will establish bi-metallism for the world, and by making it universal, make it as enduring as society." °* May he be a true prophet in the interest of the economic devel- opment of our German fatherland, and of the progressing civili- zation of all countries of the globe. , 5*W. D. Kelley— "Bimetalism." PhiladelpUia. 1879. ■zU ^■^ £1!/. 4^ 3 V- '■''*.. *i .>*;. 6^-3*. Lig^r'