1T7£ m Cornell University Library BX1775.G7 J72 Century of Christian progress ..showing a olin 3 1924 029 407 644 CORNELL UNIVERSITY LIBRARY BOUGHT WITH THE INCOME OF THE SAGE ENDOWMENT FUND GIVEN IN 1891 BY HENRY WILLIAMS SAGE A Century of Christian Progress .SHOWING ALSO THE NCREA8E OF PROTESTANTISM DECLINE OF POPERY. m tbis REV. JAMES JOHNSTON, F.S.S. Second Edition. : : flcmtm f». TRevell : : New York: 12 bible house, astor place. Chicago : 148 And 130 MADISON STREET. publisher of Evangelical literature • Cornell University Library The original of this book is in the Cornell University Library. There are no known copyright restrictions in the United States on the use of the text. http://www.archive.org/details/cu31924029407644 A CENTUEY CHEISTIAN PEOGEESS SHOWING ALSO THE INCREASE OF PROTESTANTISM THE DECLINE OF POPERY. EEV. JAMES JOHNSTON", F.S.S. EDITOR OF THE "REPORT OF THE CONFERENCE ON THE FOREIGN MISSIONS OF THE WORLD," AUTHOR OF "A CENTURY OF PROTESTANT MISSIONS," "OUR EDUCATIONAL POLICY IN INDIA," "ABSTRACT AND ANALYSIS OF THE REPORT OF THE IMPERIAL COMMISSION ON EDUCATION IN INDIA," ETC. ETC. ■Seconn CEnittcm. Fleming 1b. IRevell New York: 12 bible house, astor place. Chicago: 148 and 150 MADISON STREET. • publisher of Evangelical literature u PREFACE TO SECOND EDITION. The first edition of " A Century of Christian Progress " having been sold, all that is essential for demonstrative proof is reissued in its present form, so as to secure, by a wider circulation, the objects for which it was originally published ; amongst others the following : — 1st. To encourage hope in the evangelisation of all nations, by showing the progress which Christianity, as a whole, has made in the past, and specially during the last century. There are now 400 millions of nominal Christians in the world. Fully 800 millions out of the 1400 millions of the population of the earth live under the government of Christian States. With the exception of savage tribes, no nation is under the independent rule of an idolatrous government. The idols, though not abolished, are dethroned. 2nd. To show the growing ascendency of Protes- tantism, and, owing to its slow rate of increase, the relative decline of Popery. 3rd. To make Protestants feel their obligation to spread the religion to which they owe the unparalleled position of power and influence which, in Providence, they occupy : with their 135 millions stationed in almost every part of the habitable globe, and with 3 millions of converts scattered among the heathen of every race, it needs but the breath of the Holy Spirit to infuse life into them, and the evangelisation of the world is as sure as the promises of God. 4th. To warn Protestants of the danger and folly of mimicking the rites and yielding to the seductions of Popery, which has, as a religious system, as a moral influence, and as a political power, proved itself, where dominant, an utter failure. Protestant statesmen, ecclesiastics, and ritualists are now its greatest dupes, or, are making dupes of the ignorant. CONTENTS. . CHAPTER I. The Family, oe Birth-bate op Progress . i. Returns 2. Laws which regulate population . . . . 3. Characteristics of the three forms of religion in Europe ■ 4. Increase of population under these different forms Conclusion Appendices .- PAGE I 17 21 27 28 CHAPTER II. Nationalities of Europe 36 Effect of religious life on population .... 36 The Reformation 39 Bertillon on the comparative decay of the power of France — 1. Increase of population under Roman Catholic and Protestant religions 46 2. Increase under Protestantism, Popery, and Greek Church 49 3. Prospects of population in Europe . . .52 4. Rates of increase in latest returns ... 56 Appendices 62 CHAPTER III. Progress or Christian Nations compared with those under the Dominant Religions of the World " Religion," how understood Religion and Race . The population of China The religion of China Roman Catholic Powers Greek Church Powers Protestant Powers . Effects of British rule Appendix 1. 2. 3- 4- 5- 6. 7- 8. 73 73 76 83 89 92 93 94 98 104 A CENTURY OF CHRISTIAN PROGRESS. CHAPTER I. THE FAMILY, OR BIRTH-RATE OF PROGRESS. The family was the institution originally de- signed for the preservation and propagation of religion, and but for the social and religious disorganisation of society caused by the fall of man, it would have been sufficient for the peopling of the earth with a righteous and happy race. In the Patriarchal period no other method was devised, and even when Abraham was chosen as the founder of a new dispensation, the choice was made on the ground of his being the type of a family man. 1 The family has always been, and will always be in this world, the basis of social order, national purity, and Christian life ; but it is not of itself sufficient to meet the case of a general apostasy, 1 Gen. xviii. 19. 2 A CENTURY OF CHRISTIAN PROGRESS. such, as that which the Church of Christ had to face eighteen hundred years ago. It is not sufficient in presence of the world as it now confronts the Church — a world in which two- thirds are living in heathen or" Mohammedan darkness, and of the remaining third, two parts are under the delusive or imperfect teaching of the Roman Catholic and Greek Churches. With these facts before the Protestant Church, to which we address ourselves, this is not the time to rest content with the mere natural increase of the family or birth-rate, to which, however, it is important to call attention, as a source of encouragement, and to show the resources on which we may rely in the aggressive work to which we are now called. The birth-rate is at the best a preservative and expansive principle. It cannot be aggressive. It does not take account of those outside the limits of the circle of the religious stock. It scarcely seeks to save the fallen members of the family. In itself it has its place and importance as a con- servative element in religious society ; but from its nature it cannot reach " those that are with- out." It is the Jewish element in the Church. The aggressive is Christian. The difference be- tween the two may be expressed in the words addressed to Abraham on the one hand, and to the Apostles on the other. To the former the THE BIRTH-RATE OF PROGRESS. 3 invitation is to come to " a land which I will show thee ; " to the latter, " go ye unto all the world, and preach the Gospel to every creature." The Church has only obeyed this command by fits and starts. Her tendency has ever been to fall back into the Jewish attitude of isolation and inaction. Within a generation of the great Reformation of the sixteenth century the Protestant Church became a rigid body, fixed within the boundaries which it had reached by a brief conflict and a glorious victory. These boundaries, instead of being made the base of future conquests, became the bulwarks of a weak and timid Christianity, contented with itself, and frowning on those without, to whom it stood in the attitude of defiance — they were regarded as enemies to be resisted, not sinners to be saved. This unhappy relation of the two parties was fatal to the pro- secution of the work so auspiciously begun. For two centuries they kept on the even tenor of their way, the Popish, gaining more than the Protestant, faith. The spiritual weapons of their warfare were laid aside, their mutual relations only disturbed by the carnal weapons of hostile armies, and the scarcely less carnal disputes of angry ecclesiastics. The division of parties was the more marked and permanent, from being drawn on the well 4 : A CENTURY OF CHRISTIAN PROGRESS. recognised lines of race and language. It seems that the Saxon and allied races have as a rule become the stout defenders of the Protestant faith, while those with Celtic blood and speak- ing languages formed on the Latin tongue have clung to the religion of Rome. One of the causes of this preference may have been, that those nations of Europe which were so long and completely under the dominion of the Roman Empire as to lose their native languages became assimilated to the mother country and the mother church, while the fierce and inde- pendent tribes in the east and north of Europe along with their mixed descendants in England, who resisted so long and resented the yoke of Pagan Pome, had the same aversion to the spiritual tyranny of her ecclesiastical successor. But this only brings out one of the characteristic features of the two races — characteristics bred in the bone and running in the blood. There are intellectual qualities, moral tendencies, and gesthetic tastes which sufficiently account for the preferences of the different religions by the two races. Until a comparatively recent time, the third great family of Christians scarcely formed an element in the religion of Europe. But since the western extension of the Russian Empire, the Greek Church has become a powerful factor, THE BIRTH-RATE OF PROGRESS. 5 and is every year becoming more important, owing to the rapid rate of increase through the family or birth-rate. With ample territory for expansion, and habits of primitive simplicity in its people, Russia bids fair to become a por- tentous power — apart from conquest. It makes great strides through natural increase. So long as the population of Europe was nearly- stationary, the numerical relations of the Pro- testant and Popish parties remained substan- tially unchanged ; but with the new state of matters inaugurated by the revival at the end of last century, and increased in the present, a change of great importance was brought about. The Protestant party began to shoot ahead, and as the rate of the general increase of population was augmented under the new conditions of social and national life, it is difficult, perhaps impossible, to estimate exactly the population of Europe prior to what may be called the census period of history. The introduction of the census at the commencement of the present century may well mark an era in the history of the world, so great are the social and moral benefits which have sprung out of the discoveries of which statistical facts have been the origin. Before that time, there were rough methods by which an approximation could be made to the number and increase of the population. Regis- 6 A CENTURY OF CHRISTIAN PROGRESS. ters of the baptisms, marriages, and deaths of the members of both Roman Catholic and Pro- testant churches were kept in all the countries of Europe with more or less care, and from these a laborious student could form a tolerably correct estimate. 1 i. Returns. It is generally agreed that the population of Europe did not materially increase, if it increased at all, from the days of Julius Caesar to the Reformation — a period of 1500 years of stag- nation of the population, under the depressing political influences, despondency, and misery, through the prevalence of war, famine, disease, and pestilence. It is probable that the popula- tion of Europe did not exceed 100 millions, or at the outside 1 20 millions, at the two extremes, the beginning and the end of that long • period of 1500 years. If the population of Europe had increased from the beginning of the Christian era at the same rate it has increased of late, it would have doubled the hundred millions by the end of the first century, and at the end of tbe second it would have numbered 400 millions. But speculation is impossible and vain for that period ; it is difficult enough for the present. 1 Appendix. THE BIRTH-RATE OF PROGRESS. 7 Our own country, with all its misfortunes, was much better situated than her continental neighbours. The better fortune of her inhabi- tants is indicated by her old epithet of Merry England. Yet England increased slowly in early as compared with modern times. It is computed that the population at the time of the invasion by Caesar was from 800,000 to 1,000,000, and it took more than 1000 years to double its scanty population. At the compila- tion of the Doomsday Book in the year 1086 it appears to have been from about 1,800,000 to 2,000,000. From that time it increased more rapidly. It probably doubled its population in the next 500 years, and in the beginning of the eighteenth century it was a little over 5,000,000. It increased by 1,000,000 in the next 50 years ; but so rapid was the increase during the re- mainder of that century that in 18 10 it was over 10,000,000, doubling itself in no years, Scotland having doubled its population in 120 years. From the commencement of the present cen- tury the rate of increase of the population of Europe and America is no longer a matter of estimates or uncertainty. It is a well ascer- tained fact in every country that lays claim to civilisation. 8 A CENTURY OF CHRISTIAN PROGRESS. 2. The laws which regulate population. The natural laws which regulate, generally, the rate of increase of population are such as these : — First. A sufficient area of productive territory for expansion, or the means of exchange for foreign food supplies. Second. A settled government, capable of preserving peace at home and security from invasion. Third. Good sanitary and moral conditions of society. The first part of the first of these laws, an ample area, was sufficient in the earlier states of society ; the second part applies to the more artificial conditions of modern society. To what extent it is safe for any country to trust to such an artificial source of supply of the necessaries of life is a question we cannot at present dis- cuss, but we may call attention to important historic facts. First, the discovery of new coun- tries of vast extent and agricultural resources, and second, the development of safe and easy means of transit, were made, "in the course of Providence, in good time to provide an outlet for the superabundant population of the Old World ; and third, these discoveries and inven- tions have been the salvation of the Saxon THE BIRTH-RATE OF PROGRESS. 9 races, and the means for the preservation of the Protestant religion. These, which have been the predominant migratory and manufacturing races, have found vent for their redundant population, and at the same time the means of supporting a much larger population at home, so as greatly to outstrip the races by which they were surrounded on the Continent or hemmed in by sea. The limited area of the Protestant Powers would soon have limited their increase, or have reduced them to poverty and decay. England was at the point of famine at the beginning of this century ; and but for emigration and commerce, would have been ere this powerless, if she had not perished, or become a poor province of France, as trouble- some as Ireland is to Britain. In requiring good moral as well as sanitary conditions in the third law, we use the word moral in the inferior sense of such a regard for life, especially in rearing of the young, as is necessary to the increase of the race. With these conditions, the human race will increase at such a rate as to double itself in each period of from twenty-five to thirty years. The theory that the human race increases in a geometrical ratio, while food supplies only increase in an arithmetical ratio, seems to us both an erroneous opinion and an awkward expression, and has led to much false reasoning and some very io A CENTURY OF CHRISTIAN PROGRESS. questionable conclusions. Food of most kinds increases in a geometrical ratio as well as the human race, and that at a much more rapid rate. Cereal and vegetable productions yield yearly fifty or an hundred fold, so as to allow of man and animals having their share and leaving enough for reproduction. The same is true of the increase of animals, fishes, and fowls, only to a more limited degree, necessary for human food. The limit of the food supply does not lie in the ratio of its increase, but in the limitation of the area of land on which it can be produced. Here, and here only, is the limit to the food supply of the human race ; and until that limit is reached it is worse than folly to devise means for restraining the increase of men. The saying of Malthus, that " God appears to have taken great care of the species and very little of the individual," is based on this misconception of the true and only limit to the food supply for the use of man ; and if he had looked more carefully into the teaching of the Book from which he took his texts on Sundays, he would have found the solution of the difficulties which so distressed his generous spirit during the week. The laws of Nature, the spur of necessity, and the commands of Heaven, unite in pressing on man the duty " to increase and multiply and replenish the earth ; " and, as we shall show, it THE BIRTH-RATE OF PROGRESS. n is only as man obeys that law that the human family can enjoy the blessings of health and happiness, and make progressive advances in the intellectual, social, and moral development of the race in harmony with the original design of its creation. It is the neglect of this law which has led to the immorality and misery of over- crowded countries and sweltering slums of our great cities, for which Nature's great law of migration is the only effectual remedy. 1 It is true that there will be a limit to this form of expansion ; but ere that time arrives, even with our present clumsy and wasteful abuse of the food provided by Nature, discoveries may be made which will increase the means of production and economy in its use ; and when a final limit is reached, higher and better con- ditions may be in store for the family of man. Finality is not stamped on the present condi- tions of the human race. The laborious efforts of writers like Sadler and Sir Archibald Alison to justify the ways of Providence by denying the possibility of such a rate of increase of population as Malthus asserted and history has proved, are uncalled for, pernicious, and illogical. Before proceeding further, it is desirable to call attention to a fact which gives great signi- 1 See note at end of chapter. 12 A CENTURY OF CHRISTIAN PROGRESS. ficance and importance to our inquiry, viz., that wherever population is arrested or begins to decrease, it is a sure sign of degeneracy and a cause of national decay. This will appear in our statistics as a fact, and will, before we close, be shown to be a natural cause. Not to burden those of our readers who are not fond of statistical tables, we give at the end of this chapter a table (I.) drawn up by the well-known Italian statistician, Signor Luigi Bodio, showing the increase of the population of Europe and America at the beginning and end of the present century, and another (Table II.) showing the rate of increase. It will help the uninitiated to understand its significance if I state that an increase of i per cent, per annum doubles a population in seventy years, and a rate of increase of . 70 per cent, per annum will double it in a hundred years, and so on for all the percentages given. 1 Signor Bodio's table is accepted by all who have studied the subject * We have not given fractional periods. The following very neat formula, which is largely employed in calculating the period of doubling in compound interest and similar problems by actuaries, will enable any one to calculate this period for any of the countries given by Bodio. Take 69.3 and divide by the rate of increase or interest, and add .35 to the result, or in arithmetical form thus, I being equal to Interest or Increase: -J-+-3S added to the result. Example at 1 per cent, of increase: —•' + 35 gives a few days less than seventy years. THE BIRTH-RATE OF PROGRESS. 13 as fully trustworthy ; amongst the rest, by Block, Haushofer, the writer in the last edition of the Encyclopedia Britannica, and others. It is compiled from the most authentic documents from every country in Europe, to which, as the statistical agent of the Italian Government, he has the fullest access. From other sources we learn, with equal certainty, that the population of Europe was in 1 886 not less than 330 millions. We have made it up to that year by taking the official numbers of the latest census returns and adding the increase for the years required to bring them up to that date, by the help of the rates given for the later periods in Bodio's table (III.). III. It is impossible to give the exact number of the population of Europe a hundred years ago. Gibbon, Lowndes, and Debrett, Sharon Turner, M'Culloch, and others, estimate it at from 120 millions to 144 millions. We take a rather larger figure, by calculating back from the rate of increase at the different periods as given by Bodio, and from other trustworthy sources. It seems impossible that the population of such an area under the known conditions of society could have risen from 1 20 to 330 millions during that hundred years — an increase of 2 1 o millions. Besides, it leaves little increase from the Refor- mation to the end of the eighteenth century. i 4 A CENTURY OF CHRISTIAN PROGRESS. By this method, which rests on well-ascertained data, we estimate the population in 1 786 at 1 50 millions. Even this figure implies an increase which seems incredible at first sight ; but in view of known facts of recent date, it is quite within the limits of credibility. But for the means of accurate observation brought within our reach by the census returns of the present century, the effects of the revival of religious, social, scientific, and commercial life at the close of last century would have been incredible. In nothing have these effects been more striking than in the increase of population. Even with the modifi- cation we have introduced, the increase is startling. 1 Take the figures in these tables not as Arabic numerals, but as representing living men, wo- men, and children, and what a change in the aspect of this continent, in the eyes of God and men, at the close and the commencement of the hundred years. Look at them in their social aspect. We know from experience that a steady increase of population only takes place when the 1 The result is sufficiently striking stated thus : — Population of Europe in 1786 . . . 150 millions. 1886 . . .330 „ Increase in a hundred years . , .180 „ See note at end of chapter. THE BIRTH-RATE OF PROGRESS. 15 condilions are favourable. These figures tell of comparative prosperity, abundance, and com- fort. They tell of mutual loves and wedded bliss, of happy homes and merry groups of children playing in the streets. They are the signs of peaceful governments and contented peoples. These conditions are, however, com- parative. We know from present experience that a large amount of misery and disorder pre- vail in the midst of this rapid increase, enough to make us doubt of the maxim of our statisti- cians about prosperity and general happiness being the conditions of increase. But if we compare the state of the populations of Europe now with what they wei - e in former times, Ave shall find the difference in the security of life and property, the comforts of home, the sanitary conditions of society, the absence of plagues, pestilences and famines ; and we have but to turn our eyes to many regions of Asia and Africa to see the causes which arrest population now, as they did in historic periods. And on the other hand, we have only to look to new and well-governed countries with ample territory, like the United States and our Colonies, to see how much more rapidly our people might increase under favourable conditions. While the old countries of Europe as a whole only double their population in about a hundred r6 A CENTURY OF CHRISTIAN PROGRESS. years, Scotland in seventy, and England at the rate of every fifty years, these new lands double theirs in twenty-five years, and the black popu- lation of the United States in little more than twenty years — a grave problem for the govern- ment of that country. If the conditions of society in former ages had allowed of the same rate of increase as in these times, the utmost limits of population of the globe would have been far overpassed long ago. The great change in the present century gives a terrible conception of the wretched state of society in former times, that made even a tenth part of the rate of in- crease impossible. But look at these figures in the light of their religious significance, and they teach a most important lesson — a lesson full of stimulus and encouragement to the Protestant Church. They bring out the fact, that the Protestant population of the world is increasing much more rapidly than the Roman Catholic, giving it year by year a greater numerical strength and moral prepon- derance. The political significance of this fact we shall call attention to in another chapter. THE BIRTH-RATE OF PROGRESS. 17 3. Characteristics of the three religions of Europe which influence population. We are now in a position to make a com- parison between the progress of population under different forms of the Christian religion in Europe, but we cannot do so without referring to the painful necessity for treating these three unhappy divisions of the one original body as not only separate but antagonistic forces. The strongest evidence of this antagonism is that they have mutually persecuted one another when that was the form of manifesting oppo- sition, and that to this day they each regard it as a duty to support missions for the express and avowed object of making converts from one another. Protestants have their missions to Roman Catholics, and, to a much greater extent, Roman Catholics have their missions to convert Protestants. They are quite consistent, from their standpoint, in spending far more money and effort on the conversion of Protestants in England and America than on the heathen of India, China, and Africa. The souls of Saxons have a peculiar value. They have not only capacities for enjoyment in another sphere ; they have special uses in this world as a great force for the maintenance and extension B 18 A CENTURY OF CHRISTIAN PROGRESS. of what they honestly consider the true and only Church, In calling attention to these three forms of Christianity, we are under no necessity of saying a word about the doctrinal opinions of the dif- ferent Churches. It is quite sufficient for our purpose to point out one or two characteristic features of their practice, which are openly avowed by each, and are patent to all men. The first is the position which the Bible occupies, and the treatment it receives from each of these Churches. All profess to appeal to it as the ultimate standard of faith and practice, but there is a characteristic difference in the way in which it is regarded and treated by each. The Roman Catholic Church holds that it is not safe to put the book into the hands of the laity unaccom- panied by an authoritative interpretation or an authoritative interpreter ; and they put certain other apocryphal writings and decrees of Councils and opinions of Fathers on a platform little, if at all, lower than the Bible itself. The Greek Church has never put any restraint on the read- ing of the Bible by her people. On the con- trary, she has not only encouraged its circula- tion by the Bible Society of this country, but has established a similar society in St. Peters- burg. It is true that certain Councils and opinions of Fathers of the Church are regarded THE BIRTH-RATE OF PROGRESS. 19 as of authority, but these are not put forward so prominently as to hinder the free use of the Scriptures by any one who desires to study for himself. As for the Protestant Churches, they make it their boast that theirs is " the religion of the book." They teach that every man is able to find the way to heaven who has the Bible in his mother tongue, and studies it earnestly with the help that is promised to all who honestly seek it. The other characteristic feature of these Churches is an equally obvious and admitted one, viz., the subjection of the individual to the infallible judgment and authority of the Church or of its supreme head on the one hand, or the assertion of the right of private judgment on the other. No one will deny that the Church of Rome claims unquestioning obedience to the head of the Church from all her adherents. The Greek Church claims the submission of its members, but there is not the one supreme spiritual head to assert authority as in the other. There are three heads. The greatest of these, the Czar of Russia, has too much of the character of a temporal power to be a spiritual despot, except to the most igno- rant of his own subjects; and as Austria and Greece became rulers over a body of Greek Christians, they also have set up Patriarchal 20 A CENTURY OF CHRISTIAN PROGRESS. heads in their own kingdoms. The earthly or lay character of this headship renders it alto- gether different from the more logical and consistent headship of the Church of Eome. Protestants, from their principles as well as from their divisions, are excluded from any headship on earth. They deny the right of any power in this world to control their liberty or to interfere with their personal responsibility. Whatever may be thought of these principles, the fact cannot be denied that they are the principles of these later centuries, during which such great advances have been made in the pros- perity and progress of the Protestant nations of Europe. It may be objected that there is not one State in Europe in which the population belongs wholly either to the Protestant, Roman Catholic, or Greek Church ; and even where one Church is largely predominant, there are many of the inhabitants who care little or nothing for any religion, and still less for the Churches ; and that the States of Europe are not in the habit of making religion a question of the basis of their foreign or domestic policy. To these and other objections, we have only to say, that in order to make a religion a power influencing popula- tion, it is not necessary that it be universal. If it be predominant in the country, it exerts THE BIRTH-RATE OF PROGRESS. 21 its power quietly and secretly, like the leaven hid in the mass. The system which predo- minates in the minds and hearts of the people will impart its character to the domestic, social, and political life of the nation. Even those who neglect or profess to reject its authority are, in spite of themselves, influenced, if not controlled by it. But it is a notorious fact that where a religious census is taken the number who declare themselves of no religion is an inappreciable fraction — not exceeding a few thousands. France is the only apparent exception. In last census over nine millions declined to say what religion they professed, but this does not imply that they professed none. It is one thing for a man to decline to profess adherence to a religious sect, and quite another thing to declare that he renounces all religions. 4. Increase of population in Europe under the different religions in recent times. "We now call attention to a table giving the increase of the population of Europe under groups, according to the predominant religion professed in each. 22 A CENTURY OF CHRISTIAN PROGRESS. Table showmg the numbers belonging to (lie Protestant, Roman Catholic, and Greek Churches respectively, according to the most recent Census in each country (lower numbers not given where minute accuracy was doubtful. Countries. Protestant. Roman Catholic. Greek Church. Europe— Austria-Hungary 3,950,000 32, 000, 000 x 3,250,000 France .... 700,000 28, 000, 000 2 600,080 Italy 100,000 28,500,000 8,SOO i6,ooo,ooo 3 Portugal .... 600 4,700,000 Belgium .... 16,000 5,750,000 German Empire . 29,250,000 16,800,000 Great Britain and Ireland . 30,500,000 5,250,000 Netherlands ' 2,500,000 1,500,000 Sweden and Norway . 6,500,000 1,000 Denmark .... 2,000,000 3,000 Russia in. Europe 3,250,000 9,500,000 64,500,000 Turkey in Europe and ) smaller States . J 100,000 750,000 9,500,000 Greece .... 1,000 31,000 1,800,000 Switzerland Total of Europe . Calculated to 1886 America— 1,700,000 1,150,000 80,576,100 I 49)935 1 ° 00 81,650,000 85,000,000 154,000,000 83,000,000 United States 42,000,000 7,410,000 British Colonies . 5,280,000 2,521,300 Mexico and South Ameri- ) can States . . j Total of America . Calculated to 1886 . Asta and Africa, &c — 500,000 37,000,000 47,780,000 46,931,300 49,000,000 48,000,000 Russia and Turkey . 4, 000, 000 4 Missions .... Grand Total, 1886 . 2,750,000 3,250,000 500,000 137,050,000 205,250,000 87,500,000 1 Includes 4,340,000 Greek Catholics. 2 7,684,906 signed themselves Non -profess ants in the last census. 8 9*645 signed themselves Rationalists. * Includes Armenians. &c. THE BIRTH-RATE OF PROGRESS. 23 In this table, which we have prepared with much care from the most authentic source, we exhibit the comparative increase of the three great religions of Europe. We give the table in detail, that if there be any error it may be corrected by experts. The results show that the number of adherents of the Protestant, Roman Catholic, and Greek Churches in Europe, by the last census returns, were 80,576,000 of the Protestant, 149,935,000 of the Roman Catholic, and 81,650,000 of the Greek Church. If we add the increase from the last census to the year 1886, calculating by the rates of in- crease as given by Signor Bodio, the results will be as near as possible in round numbers — Protestants ...... 85,000,000 Roman Catholics .... 154.000,000 Greek Church ..... 83,000,000 We cannot be so sure of the exact numbers before the census period, which practically coin- cides with the nineteenth century; but, as we have shown from the investigations of Lowndes and Debrett, Sharon Turner, M'Culloch, and others, we cannot be far wrong in placing the population of Europe at 150,000,000 in 1786. 1 The comparative numbers of the three Churches 1 We have taken the liberty of assuming a larger number than any of these estimates, because we have a reliable test which they had not, and could not apply. 24 A CENTURY OF CHRISTIAN PROGRESS. at that time were, as nearly as we can ascertain, 37 millions of Protestants, 80 millions of Roman Catholics, and probably 40 millions of the Greek Church, so that the comparison for the two periods would stand thus — 1786. 1886. Protestants . . 37,000,000 85,000,000 Eoman Catholics . 80,000,000 154,000,000 Greek Church . . 40,000,000 83,000,000 So that the Protestants increased by nearly two and a half times, while the Roman Catholics only increased less than twice their former number, and the Greeks little more than twice. But if we take into account the hives thrown off during that time by the prolific Protestant countries, their increase becomes still more striking. Taking the United States and the British Colonies into account, we find that in these new countries there were in the United States and British Colonies — 1786. 1886. Protestants 2,700,000 47,000,000 Roman Catholics 190,000 9,930,000 So that if we take the populations of Europe and their descendants, we find the three Churches stand thus, at the beginning and end of the century — 1786. 1886. Protestants . 37,700,000 134,000,000 increase nearly 4-fold. Roman Catholics 80,190,000 163,000,000 „ „ 2-fold. Greek Church . 40,000,000 83,000,000 „ „ 2-fold. THE BIRTH-RATE OF PROGRESS. 25 That is to say, Protestants have increased at the rate of fully three and a half times in a hundred years, while Iioman Catholics have only doubled their numbers in that time. This is a far more important question than the absolute numbers. The party which is increasing most rapidly must win in the long run, if only it keep true to its destined course, even if we take into account the acquisitions made by Popery before the period with which we deal — accessions to the Church made by the blood- stained hands of cruel men — forced conversions and bloody baptisms. Mexico, Brazil, Peru, and the smaller States of South America will add to the number of the Soman Catholic Church about 3 7 millions of adherents, such as they are. No allowance can be made for increase during the hundred years. Any increase of population which has taken place in these countries has taken place in recent times, during the years of emancipation from the dominion of the foreign yoke — a movement which has shaken the spiritual power of Rome, and threatens to break off her yoke in future. Since we add these to the numbers of the Church of Eome, we may add to the other side the doubtful Christians of Abyssinia and the many weak sects of Nestorians, Copts, &c, scattered through Asia and Africa, probably 26 A CENTURY OF CHRISTIAN PROGRESS. numbering at least a million and a half. These additions, which we put to the credit of the Greek Church, to which by creed and customs they are most akin, will make the three Chris- tian sects stand thus — Protestants of all denominations . . 137,000,000 Roman Catholics of all sects . . . 205,000,000 Greek Church with many diversities . 89,000,000 Total of professing Christians . 421,000,000 It will be seen from these figures, which are more favourable to Popery than any hitherto given, that the Roman Church has now lost its boasted supremacy over the other sects of Chris- tendom. The Protestant and Greek Churches together number 226 millions, as against the 205 millions of Eome, and every year Popery is losing ground. Her population is unproductive and unprogressive. There is a lack of enter- prise and energy, while those of the Protestant and Greek Churches are multiplying and ad- vancing on every hand and taking possession of the earth. Emigration is the feature and the forte of the races which compose their member- ship ; and now that Europe is so densely peopled, the emigrant races will be the forces of the future. Eome knows and feels this, and her grand efforts are now put forth to corrupt the Protestantism of Europe and America, and above THE BIRTH-RATE OF PROGRESS. 27 all to win back the Saxon race. Herein lies our danger and our weakness. Our strength lies in the steadfastness and vitality of our faith. No increase of numbers will avail if our people are corrupted and our strongholds are held by traitors or by a timid and "feeble folk." Conclusion. We have called attention to this amazing in- crease in a hundred years of the Protestant population of the world by the natural birth- rate not as a matter of boasting, but of stimulus and encouragement, specially with a reference to missionary effort. This increase is the result of natural law. There is a higher law binding the conscience of the intelligent Christian who knows and loves the Saviour of men. What could not such a body of men as this 137 millions accomplish if only one in ten or one in a hun- dred were in earnest ? The 1 20 poor men and women in the upper room in Jerusalem began a movement which revolutionised the Roman Empire in less than 300 years. Could not these 137 millions of the richest and most powerful people upon earth carry the Gospel to the whole world in a tithe of that time if inspired with the same zeal? We are fully conscious of the unsatisfactory 28 A CENTURY OF CHRISTIAN PROGRESS. nature of the Protestantism of the present time. But we do not despond, far less despair of its future. The Protestantism of the nineteenth century is of a higher type and more hopeful character than that of the eighteenth. The power which raised a living Church out of that cold, hard, dead century is capable of reviving us again with new life and power for the evan- gelisation of the world. Note to Page n. Taken by itself, it does seem incredible that the population of Europe should have increased by 180 millions in the hundred years from 1786 to 1886, when we have good reason to believe that for the 1500 years from the beginning of the Christian era to the Reformation it had not made any perceptible increase, if it made any at all. But a study of the conditions of society in the two periods explains the cause. The breaking up of the Roman Empire, with the usual concomitants of a disorganised state of society, in the earlier period, and the internecine wars, with the famines and pestilences of the later times, were enough to keep down population. The Reformation, with its attendant liberation of the mind from darkness and bondage, and the higher position it gave to the restored manhood of the race, inspired hopes and ambitions which led to struggles after a better life in the present world as well as in that which is to come. Progress was retarded for a while by wars and their attendant evils, but gradually the state of society began to im- prove, and the conditions of increase slowly brightened, and the addition of 30 or 50 millions to the population by the end of the eighteenth century is most probable. The sudden breaking out of a new life and vigour is explained by the changes introduced at the eventful period in the history of Europe. In calculating THE BIRTH-RA TB OF PROGRESS. 29 the rate of increase for the hundred years, it seems much too high ; but we must remember that if we take the rate by calcu- lating it on the results of a lengthened period, it is very different from that for a short term, or for one year. The increase of 180 millions in a hundred years seems to give a rate of 1.20 per annum. In reality the rate is much less. 1.20 is the rate per cent, over the whole period. It gives what corresponds to simple interest or increase, while the rate year by year is that of com- pound interest. "It has been estimated that when the Romans invaded Britain the population of England did not exceed 70,000 or 80,000. At the period of the Norman Conquest it is estimated at 1,800,000. In thirty-four shires there were said to have been in towns only about 17, 105 inhabitants. The Villains were computed at 102,703 ; the Bordars at 74,823 ; Cottars, 5947 ; and Thralls, 26,552. " It has been computed from Doomsday Book that there were at the Conquest 300,785 families at an average of five to each, giving a population of 1,504,925 ; hut this did not include Wales or the four northern counties of Northumberland, Cum- berland, Durham, and Lancaster. If these be included, the population of England was at that time probably 2,150,000." — History of the British Empire, by John Macgregor, M.P. " In 1337 a poll-tax of 4d. was imposed upon men and women alike. This yielded a revenue implying a population of 1,367,000 persons, but did not include "Wales, Chester, and Durham. But a census made for taxation is always too small. Mr. Chalmers gives the population of England and Wales for that period at 2,350,000." — From History of Anglo-Saxons, vol. iii. p. 258. Note to Page 22. Absolute accuracy in the numbers of the populations of the different countries, however desirable, is not necessary to the accuracy of our conclusions regarding the increase under different Bystems of religion, provided we have the same rule applied to each country by an impartial hand. The following, taken from the " Political Geography " published by Loundes and Debrett of London in the year 1789 seems fair and reliable. The estimate for Great Britain and Ireland is nearer than that of Mr. Abbot, 3 o A CENTURY OF CHRISTIAN PROGRESS. and if we allow for the twelve or fifteen years which, must have elapsed between any returns of births and deaths which could be of use for such a publication in 1789 and the census of i8or, the 12,000,000 which is set down for Great Britain must have been very nearly accurate. The increase from 1811 to 1821, according to the two first censuses which can be relied on, was 1,900,000. If the increase from 1785 to 1801 be added to 12,000,000, it would bring the estimate to within half a million of the official return. From calculations of a similar kind in reference to some of the other countries, while they do not exactly coincide with the numbers giveu by Dr. Berthillon, they are wonderfully near to have been drawn from independent sources. The following is the best table we have been able to procure out of the many we have consulted. The only number we venture to correct in our use of this table is the population of Russia, which is certainly too low. Table showing Population of the principal States of Europe about the year 1786, as estimated by Lowndes and Debrett in their "Political Geography," published in London, 1789. Coim'rics. Area in Square Miles. Population. Inhabitants to Square Mile. Europe .... 2,750,000 140,000,000 51 Great Britain and Ireland 107,724 12,000,000 III England and Wales . 54,ii2 8,100,000 150 Erance .... 157,924 24,800,000 157 Germany .... 190,000 25,000,000 135 Austrian Dominions . 180,500 19,500,000 108 Prussia .... 60,000 6,125,000 104 Holland 10,000 2,750,000 275 Italy . 80,000 15,500,000 180 Switzerland 14,190 1,185,000 130 Spain 148,488 IO, 500,000 70 Portugal . 32,000 2,300,000 72 Sweden 220,000 3,000,000 14 Denmark . 180,500 2,300,000 13 Poland 168,800 8,500,000 53 Russia (European) 1,195,000 20,000,000 17 Turkey (European) . 181,400 9,000,000 5° THE BIRTH-RATE OF PROGRESS. 3 l AB ^E I,— Showing the Increase of the Population of Europe during the present Century, by Signor Bodio. Country. 1883. Italy . France Great Britain and Ireland . • England and Wales Scotland Ireland Germany Prussia Bavaria Saxony Wurtemburg , Baden . Alsace-Lorraine . * 17,237,000 (1801) 27,349,000 (1801)16,302,000 (1801) 8,892,000 (1801) 1,608,000 (1801) 5,216,000 (1816) 24,831,000 (1816) 13,706,000 (1818) 3,680,000 (1815) 1,181,000 (1816) 1,410,000 (1807) '922,000 1 Austria (Cisleithau)l Hungary . . 1 Switzerland. . \ Belgium . . \ Holland Sweden Norway Denmark Spain . Portugal Greece Servia . European Bussia, ■withou/t Poland, Finland, &c. Finland Polish Bussia United States, of America . (1795) (1801) (1801) (1801I 2,100,000 2,347,000 883,000 929,000 10,541,000 (1861) 25,016,000 (1861) 37,368,000 (1861) 29,32r,ooo (1861) 20,066,000 (1861) 3,062,000 (1861) 5,798,000 (1861) 38,137,000 (1861) 22,748,000 (1861) 4,657,000 2,225,000 1,720,000 1,372,000 1,564,000 18,884,000 14,223,000 2, 507,000 4,731,000 3,309,000 3,859,000 1,608,000 1,608,000 15,658,000 (1861) (1861) (1861) (1861) , U859^ (1801) 2,931,000 (1861) 3,693,000 1 (1861) 1,096,000 [ (1859) 1,100,000 (1867] 63,658,000 ' 29,010,000 35,611,000 26,770,000 3,825,000 5,015,000 45,862,000 27,972,000 5,442,000 3,082,000 2,002,000 1,609,000 22,494,000 2,889,000 5,720,000 4,225,000 4,603,000 1,916,000 2,028,000 16,902,000 834,000 5,308,000 1,746,000 (1867) 5,705,0°° 31,443,000 1,865,000 2,142,000 ^^^^-^-^^^^-^^riihree lower figure.. We have replaced them in ciphers. 32 A CENTURY OF CHRISTIAN PROGRESS. Table II.— Table showing the Rate of Increase of Population in Europe, extending over two different Periods in the present Century, by Signor Bodio. Annual Annual Country. Period Average Period Average observed. Bate observed. Rate per cent. per cent. Italy .... 1800-61 .61 1861-83 .67 France .... 1801-61 •49 1861-81 •25 Great Britain and Ireland 1801-61 .98 1861-84 •93 England and Wales 1801-61 1-3 1861-84 1.32 Scotland 1801-61 1.0 1861-84 1.0 Ireland .... 1801-61 .17 1861-84 -.88 German Empire 1816-61 • 95 1861-83 .84 Prussia .... 1816-61 I-I3 1861-83 •94 Bavaria .... 1818-61 • 54 1861-83 ■ 71 Saxony .... 1815-61 1-3 1861-83 1.4 Thuringia 1816-67 .78 1867-83 .82 Wurtemburg . . , 1816-61 •44 1861-83 .69 Baden .... 1807-61 •73 1861-83 .72 Alsace-Lorraine 1821-61 .48 1861-82 •°3 Austria (Cisletiliau ) 1830-60 .64 1860-83 .76 Hungary 1830-60 .02 1860-80 ■47 Switzerland . 1837-60 .58 1860-83 .62 Belgium .... 1831-60 •77 1860-83 .83 Holland .... 1795-1859 •71 1859-83 1.0 Sweden .... 1800-60 •83 1860-83 .76 Norway .... 1801-60 1.0 1860-83 .76 Denmark . . 1801-60 •93 1860-83 1-9 Spain .... 1800-60 .66 1860-83 •33 Portugal 1 801-61 •38 1861-78 .70 Greece .... 1821-61 1.2 1861-82 1.2 Servia .... 1834-59 i-9 1859-83 1.4 European Russia.-without Poland, Finland, &c. . | i8 5I -67 .83 1867-79 1.2 Finland .... 1800-60 1.2 *S6o-83 .89 Polish Russia 1823-67 .98 1867-79 1.8 United States of America 1800-60 3° 1860-80 2-3 Massachusetts 1800-60 i-7 1860-80 1.8 THE BIRTH-RATE OF PROGRESS. 33- The striking fact brought out in the following table is that the population of Europe during the period from 1865 to 1882-3 increased at the rate of 0.85 per cent, per annum, according to the enumeration returns, and at the rate of 1.06 per cent, by the natural increase or excess of births over deaths. At this rate the population of Europe will double itself, if the conditions remain the same, in 81 years. Even if we exclude Russia, which ha3 area enough on which to nourish her increasing numbers, the rate of 0.67 per annum will double the population in 104 years. From the care with which the census is made in almost all civilised countries, there is not the slightest ground for question- ing the accuracy of recent returns. 34 A CENTURY OF CHRISTIAN PROGRESS. °s s a S s 85800 8 S 53 S ^ 60 S ^ cu eg. s 1^1 3 § Q *^ o cj n m w *vo ■*■ o« «D O N M m m ri s © *as d 6 d h d d dg odd d G O + + + + + + + + + + + + + + a-S \o *o r^ ff^o vo mvo »n in CO HVO * fO < ft C7» CO N ca Hnri H M M H M H MOO M M leg a -g a 3 »O00 ■4-H«03 O flVO CO r- (n. m 0* H O NtOI) H Ol C1\0 m M ""I 0\0 Ol C^CO *MnB CM 0_ M^ ^O 06 © >.s£ 00' rC ■"? co" M* »0 ■* °P3 « S3 © ■3-S fl a In. in SNCO O^O OMO CO Pn M tN. fN. M T}- i> 5 « iO 00 ^ m m t^vo O oo o\ O co O N O C u M M d O M 6 MOO M O M 23 0] ■*lft + 1 + + H m J- -3 s H CO »0 N t^ t~* 11 -^- ^> mco ro tN. ■*■ o\ fl m 10 0. h ro m Q\ m m CO N tN. M fN. M SO CO Q H N •*■ d d w h cd 4- vd 00 ■*■ « ci >o W M 11 M H H M — a S Eh + 1 + 1 + 3 H M 0» H "*■ -*co «o ■H" tN, O V> ro n a E ■* 10 \0 -^-CO M uihVO to O m vo m w •*!- co n yn IO tN. -tj" "^ o_ 10 iF ■* »n | + \o" 1 * •£ n 3 15 N ro + + ■ ^ •♦■ »o ■**£> tnvo -*oo h ■* CO M Q O tN CH O N co co .- 1 1 10 i*-co o* 1 © « 0\ t- tN co in CO m tN.m 10 m 0; «J* i~ m m tC *d* co \n h -^ w ef in ^ in tN. in X » 3 55 m « CO « -*■ to ■>*• H rf U « ro « « co « ro a co co 00 CO CO CO -CO CO a r* N 00 CO CO >- t^ « «3 w m m in r*. — •a 00 w IOO1O1 m in a\ o« m H CO in M -J- M M 0\ CO ■* tN. M m n-i ti> 3 O tN. M CO co -th « fc « M 0} 4i ~ 1. --H O H m m' n tN, i-i fe a ^o _ _ ^ » » _ CO ^ " CO -CO . ^-*-\ -p> . a &^ • • aj • P * • ' O] • ■ 3 o"3 "e] ^ S-S m ^ - • ■■&.£ a * "w d ^ E£J-S '3 a O t> So S-a Eh 1. England a 2. Scotland. 3. Ireland . 4. Norway . 5. Sweden . 6. Denmark 7. Finland , !5 EH 8. Holland . g. Belgium. 0. France . 1. German '. included • 8 -a S 8 ■— i.. <5P4 W ro " H M H THE BIRTH-RATE OF PROGRESS. 35 t 1 1 ddddcodd d + + -T + + + OS PI + o + en Os 6 vo SO -? 1 1 P) o vd . ro h . • -co oo d + P) d + t-. o d ro ♦ OilHH OS M M »*■ CO hhmmOo'mO so VO co ss a so • -«- t». en*© • t^ ' d d d h * d co ^vo o O so so oo "Oco smsmmw so t-> oo 0^. ■*■ O m l-» ■ ■+■ -4- • • • M ' H CO ' 0_ in CO OS o> co in osco w t-> pi r-. •*■ r«.co so t— t-^so h t^ co MOdodONd co d JO os m d SO t- « ; mco • ; ; so 'do m SO d O "o in co o Osso os t>» in os co -*■ N h m , OlS , O t--sO ' ci »n ' vd id t^ M M N PI co COHHHMHCiH f H"'l-0> , **"OsQ\'^"'* Os nmNHN 6 « f m r- h h ci so coso f- c- c-. so OP* ■ -J- q ■ so co CO as CO CO o o" fomoi««om'* « 00 00Os-^-O>0Os lO q q^so qs -*co_ h_ ■<£ os cnM*MMinMc^(N* co -co oo ■ $ £ loo OO -COCO DO • CO CM . co „ _ „ co oo co NMOoomwOO co r^ao ■* t^co m -J- t-. m n h* h ^ « in os co so co co b id" , — '— . os mso so m t*. r-*sO t"*CO N ■*■ . mo co h co co " vo" in in h" h" h « OS Os m sq co VO in sO „ _ „ _ „ _ • CO m o m os in . so _ F-.SO t-SO ■ co -co co co co H M M M M SO CO Saxony .... Thuringia . . Baden .... Wurtemberg . . Bavaria .... Switzerland . Poland, Russian . Austria, Proper Hungary and Trausyl- ) vania . . . . 1 "3 o > 55 3 ci 1 o co Cl >rt pj &^« ■H 'OIN a] 3 « » » £ o 11^1 OOkO o S S o rl B b. U t! « bofl .S R;- ■go a « S-8S.S a o -^ "to oo O tU Q H-t> *"tf ° ft p.3 « a fl;8-s •« -d hn B ".2 - 3"3 S g°^ 8 = 3 m o'" os mo ■s « a ( 3« ) CHAPTER II. NATIONALITIES OF EUROPE. In the previous chapter we have shown how Christianity has advanced during the last cen- tury by the natural increase of the families of those professing the different creeds classed under the heads of Protestant, Roman Catholic, and Greek Churches. We shall now consider the same subject under the head of nationalities. This will, to a certain extent, necessitate our traversing a portion of the ground we have already travelled over, but with a different ob- ject in view, and presenting the subject in a different aspect. We have seen how the dif- ferent religions have progressed as they exist within the limits of the different nations of Europe. Now we shall see how the nations themselves have progressed under the different ' forms of religion which the people profess to believe, confining ourselves to the three great divisions of Christianity in Europe as the only religious forces which have any material in- fluence on the destiny of nations. NATIONALITIES OF EUROPE. 37 But we may be told, at the outset, that it is too late in the day to talk of religion as a force which now has any important influence on national increase or progress. Our answer is that, so far as regards the old claims of religion to dominate political or public actions, these are practically gone, and we do not regret their de- parture. Christianity as originally founded by Christ was not meant to be an external power ruling over the public affairs of the nations of the earth. " My kingdom is not of this world " was His maxim. " The kingdom of God cometh not with observation." " The kingdom of God is within you." The great power of Christianity lies in the influence which it exerts on the hearts and lives of individual men, and in the propor- tion in which these form the ruling or dominant force in a nation. To that extent and in that way does Christianity contract and direct the destinies of nations and empires. In this kind of influence Christianity is more powerful now than when either Popes or Puritans imposed their decrees and dogmas on rulers or senates. In those days it was a force acting from without ; now Christianity is a spiritual life moulding our legislation and public acts by a power from within. "We point, as an evidence of this secret and powerful working of the Christian life in modern 38 A CENTURY OF CHRISTIAN PROGRESS. times, especially in our own country, to the spirit of modern legislation. Not to laws in favour of Christianity in so many words, but the spirit of these laws as being essentially in harmony with the spirit of the Gospel of Christ. The treat- ment of all classes equally on the basis of a common brotherhood, free from the distinctions of caste or creed — the fairness and justice of these laws, and, above all, the spirit of compas- sion and mercy for the poor and the weak and suffering amongst men and even the lower animals. Never in the history of the world have the laws of any country shown anything approaching to the spirit of true Christianity as exhibited by the laws of Great Britain during this present century ; and it cannot be denied that Christian men were the movers in passing them, from the days of Negro emancipation, under men like Wilberforce, Clarkson, and Buxton, to the more recent laws for the pro- tection of women and children carried out by the late Lord Shaftesbury. Even when those who made such laws were not strictly religious men, they were men who, like all statesmen, carry put what they know to be the feeling of the majority of the influential parties in the country. If the Christian spirit were not the pervasive spirit of the population, such laws would have been impossible, or never thought NATIONALITIES OF EUROPE. 39 of. In old times, when Popish or Puritan parties directed legislation from without, they were too apt to do so in the spirit of Moses rather than in the spirit of Christ. The New Testament has in this nineteenth century gained its proper place. We know and deplore our sad shortcomings, but dare not disown what God has done for us in this respect. 1 The revival of moral and religious life began with the Reformation in the sixteenth century, and assumed its highest form in the nineteenth, in so far as it affects the national and public life of the people. Its influence on the increase of population was felt from the first, but it was only in the nineteenth century that it assumed its present proportions. It not only gave a new sanction and sacredness to human life, but im- parted new hopes for the future, and fresh energy to human enterprise, and greater stability and rectitude to the administration of human laws. We do not attribute the improvement to the religious element alone, we gladly acknowledge the wonderful effects produced by the liberation of the Greek and Roman classics at the capture of Constantinople by the Turks. The scatter- ing of the seeds of literature and art, which had been imprisoned or buried in the effete insti- tutions of a corrupt Christianity, and in the 1 See Note I on Minorities, p. 62. 4 o A CENTURY OF CHRISTIAN PROGRESS. lethargic minds of indolent Asiatics, and sow- ing them in the more productive soil of the practical and energetic European intellect, brought forth a harvest rich in blessing to the world. But it would be a great mistake to sup- pose that it was the literature and arts of Eome and Greece that regenerated Europe. Greece and Eome had themselves decayed and perished when their art and literature were in their highest glory, and they had perished with them in their hands. The dead languages and models of art could never impart a new life to dead nations ; we see that when instinct with life they could not preserve the life of the nations which had given them birth. No, it was the Bible which was the regenerator of Europe. It libe- rated the mind and awakened the conscience, and by the grace of God and the afflatus of that Divine Spirit which breathed upon man at his creation, inspired new life into the nations of Europe. It is as unphilosophic as it is vain to expect rivers to rise higher than their source or an effect to be greater than its cause. A dead literature, even the dead letter of the Bible, could not raise tli3 dead barbarism of Europe in the sixteenth century. It was a power external and from above that quickened the stagnant intellect of Europe, and gave it a direction favourable to the development of the race. A NATIONALITIES OF EUROPE. 41 revived Christianity transmuted the barren spe- culations of Greece and Rome into a fruitful philosophy, and the arts of the ancients into the applied sciences of modern times. While the forces by which Christianity has been originated, sustained, and by which it will eventually prevail, are divine, the conditions under which it has been propagated are natural and human. The recognition of this truth is necessaiy to a right understanding of the pro- gress of the Christian religion, and to a confi- dent hope in its final triumph. Without it we cannot explain its history or understand the vicissitudes by which its history has been char- acterised. The human side accounts for the constant tendency to degeneracy and decay ; the divine accounts for the ever recurring revivals by which Christianity has advanced, extended her sphere, improved her form, and risen to a higher life. The three highest departments of science, — law, medicine, and theology,- — are necessitated by and based on the fact of a disorganisation of the human constitution. Legislation deals with our tendency to violate the interests of society ; medicine with the tendency to disease ; and religion with the tendency to violate the laws of God. It was the emancipation of the mind from the 42 A CENTURY OF CHRISTIAN PROGRESS. worst of all bondage, the necessity of believing incredible dogma and the subjection of human reason to the absolute authority of fallible men, which set the race free and gave to the liberated manhood of Europe a spirit of independence and a consciousness of manhood new and in- vigorating. The liberation of the conscience from the tyranny of a priesthood which thrust itself between a man and his God imparted a new dignity to humanity, and the free Gospel inspired brighter hopes for this world by a reflec- tion from the glories revealed in the next. That religion has been an impoi'tant factor in the world's history no one will deny. That different systems of religion have exerted great influences, for good or evil, on the progress of society, will be questioned by few, if any; but the nature of that influence on the increase of population has not, so far as we are aware, been made the subject of • systematic study. The question is interesting and important, not only as bearing on religion and population, but as affecting political, social, and moral questions intimately connected with the welfare of society. The change in the rate of increase of popula- tion in Europe during the last hundred years has been demonstrated in the previous chapter, and needs no further proof. The completeness of modern statistics and the care, we may say NATIONALITIES OF EUROPE. 43 pride, of civilised nations makes any material error practically impossible. We have left the dim and uncertain twilight for the clear light of no on- day. The following facts may be stated as certain. First, that Europe has more than doubled its population within the last hundred years, and has for the last thirty years been increasing at a rate which will, if continued, double it in little more than eighty years. (See Tables I., II., and III.) Second, that the Protestant population has increased much more rapidly than the Roman Catholic, and that belonging to the Greek Church more rapidly than the Catholic and only a little less than the Protestant. (See Table IV.) The different nationalities vary greatly. Ireland has decreased since the potato famine ; France is almost stationary ; England and Wales increase most rapidly of all strictly European States, and have doubled the popula- tion in less than sixty years; while Russia in Europe has increased at the rate which will double it in forty-six years. In the following table we do not pretend to absolute accuracy in the earlier dates, but it is substantially accurate as an estimate carefully compiled from the most reliable and trustworthy sources of information, for some of which we refer inquirers to the Appendix. Ireland is left 44 A CENTURY OF CHRISTIAN PROGRESS. out in all these estimates, owing to the im- possibility of getting reliable data. Table slwieing the Different Periods in which the Population of Britain has probably doubled during Christian era. B.C. 55 about 1,000,000. &..D. 1066 about 2,000,000 ; period of doubling over 1100 years. „ 1500 „ 4,000,000 „ ,, „ 400 ., „ 1700 „ 8,oco,ooo „ „ „ 200 ., „ 1831 „ 16,000,000 „ „ „ 131 „ „ 18S6 „ 32,000,000 „ „ „ 56 „ At the rate of increase from 1871 to 1881 it would double in 51 years. We take France as another illustration of the increase of population in Europe during the cen- tury. Before giving an estimate for the whole, and that there may be no suspicion of our being influenced by any preconceived opinions, we take the figures drawn up by an independent autho- rity of acknowledged weight when dealing with another subject. His picture of the slow increase of the population of France is most pathetic and instructive. The following figures and remarks on their significance are prepared by one in no way tempted by religious theories to exaggerate on this subject. They are from the pen of Dr. J. Bertillon jils, and show how the destiny of nations hangs on the rate of its natural increase. In his " Statistique Humaine de la France " he NATIONALITIES OF EUROPE. 45 calls attention to " the fact that France is losing her position as a power from her lack of popula- tion." He says: "In 1700 there were only- three great nations in Europe : — France with a population of . 19,600,000 England „ „ „ . 8,000,000 German. Empire „ ,, 19 or 20,000,000 Including Austria „ 12 or 13,000,000 „ Prussia „ 2,coo,ooo Altogether about 50 millions. France was then 40 per cent., the greatest power from her large, compact, and homogeneous population. In 1789 France had a population of 26,000,000 England „ „ „ 12,000,000 Eussia „ „ „ . . . 25,000,000 German Empire „ „ 28,000,000 States composing the Empire — Austria with a population of . . 18,000,000 Prussia „ „ „ . . 5,000,000 In all go millions. France does not figure for more than 30 per cent. In 1815 France had a population of England „ „ ., Austria „ „ ,, Prussia „ „ „ Bussia „ „ „ 29,500,000 19,000,000 30,000,000 10,000,000 45,000,000 In all 139 millions, in which France does not figure for more than 20 per cent. 46 A CENTURY OF CHRISTIAN PROGRESS, In 1880 France had a population of , 37/300,000 England „ „ 34,800,000 Austria „ „ „ 37,000,000 German Empire ., „ . . . 45,000,000 Russian Empire „ „ 84,500,000 Italy „ „ „ 28,600,000 In all 270 millions of inhabitants. France does not figure for more than 13 per cent." These figures, as grouped by Dr. Bertillon, are more pathetic than any threnody — the de- sponding lament of a patriot. In the two last, for the first time, we have the appearance of the representative of the Greek Church on the European arena — a full blown power on terms of equality with the best, having 45 millions in 18 15, and nearly twice that number in 1880. 1. Increase under the Roman Catholic and Protestant religions compared. Leaving out of account at present the Greek Church, there are two pairs of powers which may be taken as the representatives of the two dominant religions of Europe — the Roman Catholic and Protestant Churches. France and Austria are the great Catholic powers — " defenders of the faith ; " and England and Germany the acknowledged champions of Pro- testantism. It was by the rapid increase of NATIONALITIES OF EUROPE. A7 the population of Prussia, and the corresponding increase of the Protestant element in the minor States, that she was able to snatch the sceptre of empire from the hands of Austria, and to claim the imperial place in Germany. The following arrangement will bring this out, by only changing the grouping of Dr. Bertillon's figures, thus • — 1700. Roman Catholic Powers, France . 19,000,000 Austria . . 12,000,000 Protestant Powers. Great Britain . 8,000,000 Prussia . . 2,000,000 31,000,000 10,000,000 1789. France 26,000,000 Great Britain . 12,000,000 Austria 18,000,000 Prussia 5,000,000 44,000,000 17,000,000 1815. France 29,000.000 Great Britain . 19,000,000 Austria 30,000,000 Prussia . 10,000,000 59,000,000 29,000,000 1 8 So. France . 37,000,000 Great Britain x 34,800,000 Austria 37,000,000 German Empire 45,000,000 74,000,000 79,800,000 1 If we only add the 16 millions of Prussia to the 34 of Britain, we have 50 millions, or two-thirds of the other powers which a century and a half before were three times larger than they were. 48. A CENTURY OF CHRISTIAN PROGRESS. We make no remarks on these figures at present, except to say that in judging of the causes of increase of population we must not expect to explain any case by any one cause or even one uniform set of causes. Each case must be investigated by itself. There are cer- tain general laws always at work which we must ever keep in mind when seeking for some more recondite cause which modifies or controverts these laws. To show the possibilities of increase in a population, we' give the returns for the United States of America for a little more than a cen- tury. A good deal of this increase is from immigration, but that forms a small proportion of the whole. The total number of immigrants to the States prior to 1820, when returns were first made, is said to have been only a quarter of a million, and from 1820 to 1830 they were known to have been only 144,000; and from 1 840, when immigration began to flow in rapidly, to 1880, the total number of immigrants of all nationalities was little more than 9,000,000. The rate of increase by the birth-rate was from 1860-70, 32 J per cent, on the ten years, or about 3.2 per annum ; and from 1870-80, it was 31^, or 3.1 per annum, at which the popu- lation will double itself in less than twenty-four years without the aid of immigration ; and the NATIONALITIES OF EUROPE. 49 Black population, to which there is no addition from without, is increasing at even a more rapid rate. The following are the results from 1776 to 1886:— Increase of the Population of U.S.A. In 1776 the population was 2,640,000 „ 1800 „ ,, S.3°9;427 „ 1820 „ „ 9,633,822 „ 1850 „ „ 23,191,876 „ 1SS0 „ „ 50,152,866 „ 1 886 „ „ (estimate) 57,500.000 An increase of twenty fold in little more than a hundred years. 2. Increase of Population in Europe, under the three religious systems during the hundred years. It is impossible to compare with absolute accuracy the different States of Europe at the interval of a hundred years in respect to the three dominant religions. Owing to the change of the area of the populations they are incom- mensurable, but for practical purposes they may be so grouped as to make a fair comparison of the two parties. At the treaty of Westphalia, Germany was divided into circles according to the dominant religion in each State. Austria, Bavaria, and D 5o A CENTURY OF CHRISTIAN PROGRESS. Burgundy were classed as Catholic, Saxony alone was designated Protestant, and all the rest were mixed. But up to the period of the French Kevolution, Austria, from the great pre- ponderance of its population, and its position as the central and imperial authority, practically made the German Empire a Catholic power; but if we subtract Prussia, as well as Saxony, as Protestant powers, the two parties may be fairly represented thus in 1786 : — Protestant Powers. Great Britain and Ireland . . 14,000,000 Prussia . . 6,000,000 Saxony . . 1,600,000 Holland . . 2,700,000 Sweden and Norway 6,000,000 Denmark . . 2,300,000 Koman Catholic Powers, German Empire, including Austria . 31,000,000 France . 25,000,000 Italy . . 15,500,000 Spain . . 10,500,000 Portugal 2,300,000 Poland 8,500,000 92.800,000 32,500,000 The Greek Church at that time was only represented by the presence of Russia in Europe, which did not then number much more than twenty-five millions, the other Greek States, with insignificant exceptions, being under the Turks and the religion of Islam. The change at the present time is great, and is represented in detail in Table I. as accurately as can be gathered from the most recent census in each country. We have preferred to take the latter census as far back as 1880 or 1881, rather NATIONALITIES OF EUROPE. 5» than trust to an estimate for a more recent one. The percentages for the aggregates of the different groups are not absolutely accurate, but they are sufficiently near, and so far as we compare one set with another they are practi- cally accurate, and are as follows : — ■ Estimate of the Population of Europe for 1 886 under the three Religious Groups, with the Sate of Increase and Probable Period of Doubling. Religions in Groups. Population in 1886. Enumeration Rate of Increase. Probable Period of Doubling. Roman Catholic Protestant . . , Greek States— chiefly 1 Russian . . j Total . 134,600,000 98,600,000 99»3O0,O0O Per cent. •So 1. 14 1-33 Years. 138 332,500,000 •99 70 Turkey and Switzerland are not included in the above, which accounts for the differences in the figures for the Greek Church and aggregates of population. For details, see Table III., p. 34. The following comparison of the three groups of States, under their respective religious sys- tems, for the entire hundred years, has not the same interest as respects the natural increases of population, owing to the changes which have taken place in the territorial and political rela- tions of these powers. But it has its value as 52 A CENTURY OF CHRISTIAN PROGRESS. indicating the character of the forces which are now at work, and it shows how these forces have developed themselves during the period. The rate of increase is not of much value, as it is no indication of the movements which are now taking place, or which are likely to affect the future ; we therefore give only the numbers. The period of doubling would be of no value in this case, as the conditions cannot be the same in the future as they have been in the earlier period. Tahle showing the Increase of Population in Europe under the three groups of Religious Systems during the hundred years, m millions and tenths of millions (00,000 omitted). Religious Systems as represented by Groups of States. Pot illation in 1786. Population in 1886.1 Increase in 100 years. Roman Catholic States . 92,8 I32>S 39,7 Protestant States . 32, S 96,'S 64,0 Greek States .... 25,0 99,° 74,° 3. Prospects of Population in Europe. The probable prospect of the population of Europe doubling in seventy years is far from being a comforting one, but the more closely we examine the subject, and the nearer we make our calculations to the present time, and under 1 The population for 1S86 is found by taking the same rate as that between the two last censuses. NATIONALITIES OF EUROPE. 53 the conditions which seem to be not only the present, but probably for some time the perma- nent conditions, the greater are the reasons for believing that the rate is rather on the increase. There is every prospect of the increase of the next decade giving a rate of 1 per cent, per annum instead of .99, and the period of doubling to be nearer 69 than 70 years. The only natural check to such an increase, besides war and pes- tilence, is poverty, which means misery and decay, or emigration, which would bring wealth, happiness, and progress. Other artificial expe- dients we shall not at present even name. To one circumstance we must call attention, that is the effect of emigration on the three groups of States on which their religious systems have had an important bearing, and in that way promoted the increase of population. The Greek powers have confined their migrations almost entirely within their own wide territories, as in the case of Eussia, or to temporary residence within a limited distance of their own homes, chiefly on the Mediterranean littoral. The Roman Catholics have failed as emigrants. Latin races do not succeed as colonists. Spain and Portugal have lost almost all their con- quests in the West. By intermarrying with the native races of America they have obeyed the inevitable law which merges the conquering 54 A CENTURY OF CHRISTIAN PROGRESS. in the conquered race. They may have to some extent improved the peoples of these States, and they have certainly established the Roman Catholic Church in these countries. The Protestant States, on the other hand, while lessening their rate of increase in Europe by emigration, have greatly extended both their numbers and influence. The Saxons and the cognate races of Scandinavia and Britain have been the great emigrating forces of the century, and have changed the face of the world by this movement of the race. Leaving out of account, in the meantime, those who have gone to the United States, though they are not really lost to us, for " that is not lost which a friend gets," the emigration from Great Britain to her own colonial possessions has resulted in an addition of more than 6,000,000 to the number of her own children in different parts of the Empire. If we add these to the home population, it brings the numbers up to 44,000,000, or in- cluding the other nationalities in the colonies, now practically one with ourselves, we may reckon a British population of 48,000,000, equal to the German Empire ; and if we in- clude the population of the United States, three- fourths, if not four-fifths of whom are of British origin, the Anglo-Saxon race will mount up to 102,000,000 — a greater number than the inhabi- NATIONALITIES OF EUROPE. 55 tants of the whole Empire of Russia in Europe and Asia. The natural increase of the Anglo-Saxon race has been greater than even that of the Slav, with all the disadvantage of limited area at home, and the necessity of migrating to distant lands, which retards increase for years, while the male population predominates over the female, as in all new colonies. No country on the continent has boundaries so well defined by nature and so easily defended as those which encircle the British Isles. The " streak of blue " which separates from friends and foes alike has stood in the way of either expansion or contraction of area. The map of Europe has been so often cut up and carved into different forms, and painted in so many different colours, that it would be a difficult if not an impossible task to give the rate of increase of any one nation for a lengthened period. We may give, however, that of Erance for the last two centuries approximately. The data for the calculations for the rate of increase in the early part of the century are necessarily very imperfect. No one can pre- tend to certainty. As an illustration of the uncertainty of estimates, the population of Great Britain was generally estimated at the end of last century at 8,000,000. Mr. B. Abbot, who 56 A CENTURY OF CHRISTIAN PROGRESS. introduced the first Act of Parliament for a general census of the population, said on the 19th of February 1800, on introducing the measure, that he estimated the inhabitants of Great Britain and Ireland at 11,000,000. The result showed, as nearly as the rough methods em- ployed would allow, that it was over 15,000,000, and the returns of succeeding years have proved that this was not far from the truth. 4. Bate of increase in latest returns of the hundred years. Having shown in the note at the end of Chapter I. the rate of increase in Europe during the last fifteen or twenty years, by the census returns at an interval of about fifteen years (see Table III. Chap. I.), the nearest acces- sible to our own times, and illustrated the progress during a hundred years in the case of a few of the great European States, we may now make a comparison of the latest returns for all the principal countries. They are necessarily imperfect, but we are now in a position to correct any very material error by the known rate of increase in recent times, making due allowance for altered circumstances in different countries. NATIONALITIES OF EUROPE. 57 eg "*■ "a S '3 s 8 8 £ ■a -a ■S S s § IS ■85^ 5 ><; ft, S 8>SO •SCi OS 00 h vn co co to CO CO LO ^0 LO H 00 -t On CO H (n CO LOO lO lovO t^ NO & g H H ■*■ H H •ti ■*s 9 3 a fN On rO\D m N OnnO In (M NO tN rh CO 2 s s CO Tf CN H VO ON LO H O CO 01 O ON H P3 h * d d d d d H M H H M H ft a» ft © +i tN tN CO OV-O H ©•a CMno in « CO ■^-■o COCO O CO ON ci *> o H vO \D ON IN CO LO IN on-o no lo LO to ^ n CM ON LO CO H IO CO H CO LO LO M M IN o a o M H*" Cf no" •^ CO CO*" C -S H ChHOO O * CO Thw on 10 CO On H 01 <-C NO IOVO CO LO CO -t tNNO M VO O * ■SS 8 COCO CO On H O. ^h (N 01 01 NO On On CO s S ° in n on'O ■* 10 lfim^-'tH m CO £*o CO CO 01 H CO •<*■ CO ON H 0-. °3gt§ » O "t -+0O Tf- O w tt- O O O CO o w ■!; oo CO CO CO CO CxCO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO OO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO fiOflS M H H H M H H H H M 1-1 H .S^ n tKM ti O lOO IN CO M 01 *^*§*S O O to On lo VD -^- 1-1 OnnO \0 ■tf- ci H ONCO LO On 01 vO O CO CN 01 INCO LO \D 10 \0 NO CO LO ^- H M CO ^T M N -f p, = o o_, CO CO M H 01 H ^-CO CO O ~ W ... £ 33 *- « ON >-< H CO H H fOCOPl * f-i -S § £ H N.>0 nknn NNNNNN CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO M H H H H H H H H M M H in *d Ul A 1— 1 J3 1 .%.... •"H • • • • a "*- ci O § « ci "3 ^ 2 CJ 03 3 5oi 1d'§ a rotestant — Germany Gt. Britar Netherlan Sweden . Norway . Denmark maw. Franc Austr Italy- Spain Portu Belgii H O EH &3 A* .5 3 c3 to S a feO fs .g ci cj bn O 1) ni i-. to rt PI u a> o m ■4H Ci c a 58 A CENTURY OF CHRISTIAN PROGRESS. oi ■2«m^3 VO O^NO CI 10 rx u -S -a-vo t^io m O 10 Cn 16 g H H H •d -gga H OvCO CO VO ■*■ o\ CO doa 10 O CO CO CO VO ■*■ o* M M <5 M H d d ft£ ft -J EHgsJ vO O vO CO IO O CO CO t^ VO O CO « 9? vO **■ ON M H M H \o* 4 CO ■* ft O g en CI o . e8 OvvO vO H CJ\ Ov H HI H S5*S OT3 co covO . H OO CM NNO IO vO O a «is WIOCO 't o\ vo lO H c-i r2-rt So, COUl M M ef cfccf CO tN. CO O CO °2 S f" O vo **■ O ri 5 £00 rt § a w l>. IN tv l>. t-s IN CO CO CO CO CO CO pags H H M H H ft ,-*-* .... t CD . Oh O (-1 3 • • ■ • M ' "* pq • as "u 1 " * m if .2 « El O O "fl c reafe Church- Bussia 1 . Boumania Minor State: Greece . •s V u EH 3 J <^ 0? 02H 3- h dS _Q Cb =0 .2 o ■g b .S-a d fl ID S-S nS°B s Sh.S o d s fl 10° S M 13.3 g 13 eg* q NATIONALITIES OF EUROPE. 59 This table we have prepared with much labour and care from the most reliable sources. The most recent returns have been taken to enable us to test the less trustworthy data of the early periods to which we must go back. The increase is taken from the enumeration, not from the natural or birth-rate, which would not be the best test of the rate at which a country was progressing. The period of doubling given in column 9 is of course liable to the uncertainty inseparable from all calculations applied to the future, with its varying conditions. The general average of increase for each of the groups is, we believe, substantially trust- worthy, though it cannot be said to be absolutely accurate, as we could not get a trustworthy official return for the same years in each case. If there is an error in these figures it is in favour of the countries in the first group. The average for France is decidedly too high, if applied to the future. The increase of late is owing to the temporary influx of population from Alsace- Lorraine. Austria-Hungary and Spain are per- haps a little too low, but France, with its large population and greater excess, fully counter- balances that defect, which we found no means of rectifying from the returns, which are all less or more defective for these two countries. The second group is, if there be any error, rather 60 A CENTURY OF CHRISTIAN PROGRESS. unfavourable to Protestant countries. Even if liable to prejudice on the side of our own faith, no right-minded man could find satisfaction in contemplating in any large portions of Europe what he cannot but regard as signs of moral as well as material decay. Besides, the contrast between the two groups is so great as to beget a feeling of incredulity, which a judicious con- troversialist would rather wish to bring nearer to the limits of credibility. But there can be no just grounds for not accepting the average of 1. 14 as substantially accurate. We make no lengthened comments on these striking facts ; we leave them to the reflections of our readers. They will be viewed differently by different men. The politician will see in them important elements of the balance of power and the direction in which the balance in the future will incline. The moralist will speculate on the causes of such a manifest and persistent tendency to increase more rapidly in our country than in another similarly situated, and will discover on closer inquiry that moral conditions have far more to do with the difference than physical laws. The Christian will discover that religion is at the root of the whole, and will be able to discover in the characteristic features of each religion a sufficient secret cause for these diversities. To many a Koman Catholic NATIONALITIES OF EUROPE. 61 we doubt not it is a cause of sore grief and painful . grounds of anxiety for the future ; to the Protestant good ground for hope and courage, as he sees the steady and rapid increase of the followers of his own faith, but he will see no reason to boast or rest satisfied. The deepest feeling will be a sense of responsibility, and a desire that the world should be benefited by the influences which have made his creed so pro- ductive of material as well as of spiritual fruits. We cannot stop to demonstrate as we might by statistical reports that not only are the Protestant powers increasing most rapidly in numbers, but that the increase is in a still greater ratio in wealth and all the elements of power. The accumulation of wealth in England and America is immeasurably greater than that in the rest of the world. The French accumulate by saving in small sums ; the Saxon by producing wealth through the power of steam and the spread of commerce. But we have not time to enlarge on this subject as we intended. The facts which we had collected would have made a chapter of great significance, and well-fitted to call forth gratitude to God for the position which Pro- testant nations hold, and to deepen a sense of responsibility. 6z A CENTURY OF CHRISTIAN PROGRESS: Note i. — On Doubtful Classes and Minorities. We shall simplify our inquiry by ignoring all those innumer- able and miserable distinctions which are at once the bane and reproach of Protestants. We are justified in doing so, both be- cause they are all of one mind, not only in the fundamentals of religion, but because they are at one in their denunciation of Popery, while the Pope and the many different parties in that body of which he is the acknowledged head are equally divided and unanimous in their condemnation of all Protestants. Be- sides, the characteristic features by which we distinguished the two churches apply equally to all the divisions within the two camps. We shall further simplify our inquiry by taking no note of those in the two opposed parties who are supposed to be neutral in religious matters or only nominally attached to either. There are such parties on both sides, and they are practically, though not ostensibly, attached to one or other ; they are on the one hand influenced by the opinions of the party to which they may have only an hereditaiy connection, and on the other hand they are a direct or indirect support to the party. They may not be pillars in the temple, but they are buttresses, and our churches are gener- ally built in that style of architecture which stands in need of external as well as internal support. Besides, the class to which . we refer are found in all lands and of all religions. We make no account of those so-called atheists and avowed opponents of all religions ; they are so few and so insignificant as to be practically inappreciable. In Germany, which is not noted for its faith or credulity, there were only 3600 who put down their names as free-thinkers in 1871, and in 1880 there were only 30,615 who were enrolled under the head of ''other denomina- tions, and of no religion." The latter must have been very few, as it included three or four small sects. The nine millions in France who declined to enroll themselves as either Soman Catholics or Protestants may mean much or little, as we are not in a position to estimate its value, and shall put them down to the credit of the predominant religion of the country. They will form an NATIONALITIES OF EUROPE. 63 ample offset to the much smaller number of a similar class who may be found in Protestant countries. The number of Roman Catholics in England is set down by all the highest authorities at about one million, and is accepted in the last edition of the " Encyclopaedia Britannica.'' But we are of opinion that this estimate is too low, as that given in respect- able authorities (two millions for Great Britain) is certainly too high. Number of Roman Catholics in Great Britain and, Ireland, We have just received from Rome a most interesting and valu- able volume, published for the first time this year, the " Missiones Catholicse Ritus Latini, cura S. Congregationis De Propaganda Fide," in which,, along with an account of the missions of the Roman Catholic Church to all lands, Heathen and Protestant, a full return is given of the number of persons belonging to that Church in each diocese in England, Scotland, and Ireland. The following are the tables for the two former, which we give in full, that parties in different parts of the country may test them for themselves. That for Ireland we give only in the aggregate : — E.VSLAND. Missions. Catholics. Priests. Churches. Arch. "Westminster 200,000 349 1.8 Dioce. Birmingham , 80,000 200 119 , Clifton 20, 650 96 43 , Hexham 121,000 169 109 , Leeds .... 122,198 112 83 , Liverpool . 316,280 3 2 3 145 , Middlesborough . 40,369 73 54 , Newport and Minevia 42,000 68 61 , Northampton 7,712 49 54 , Nottingham 25,000 121 70 , Plymouth . 14,000 87 52 , Portsmouth 25,000 72 54 , Salford 210,365 218 109 , Shrewsbury 49,000 112 74 , Southwark Total 80,000 197 107 1.353,574 2,252 I.25 2 64 A CENTURY OF CHRISTIAN PROGRESS. Scotland. Misbitms. Catholics. Churches. Priests. Schools. Seminaries. Arch. Glasgow £*5,73 2 85 136 73 I Arch. St. Andrews { and Edinburgh ] 43,208 62 53 35 Didce. Aberdeen 12,500 S3 48 21 I „ Argyll . 11,000 40 23 „ Dunkeld 25,894 29 35 JO „ Galloway Total 17,000 39 24 17 325,334 308 319 139 2 The numbers claimed by the Roman Catholic Church in Eng- land and Wales, and in Scotland, are 1,353,574 in the former, and 325,334 m the latter, or 1,678,918 for Great Britain. From in- vestigations which we made in Scotland some time ago, in which the Catholic priests kindly gave me all the information in their possession, we are convinced that 325,324 is considerably too high, and the probabilities are that that for England is also high. Without the slightest intention to mislead, there is a tendency to overestimate in all ecclesiastical statistics, and as absolute accu- racy is impossible, we are disposed to set down the number of Roman Catholics in England and Scotland at a million and a half — that is, 4.80 per cent, of the population in the former and 6.67 per cent, in the latter, or about 5 per cent, of the population in the two countries. We have no means of comparing the rate of increase in Scot- land but by estimates based on the relative number of marriages of Roman Catholics as compared with the rest-of the population. Taking the period after the famine, which led to a great increase of Irishmen in this country, the following are the most probable estimates taken from the "Encyclopaedia Britannica:" — 185 1 758,800, or 4.22 per cent, of the population; 1854, 916,600, or 4.94 per cent. ; 1861, 927,000 or, 4.61 per cent.-; 1866, 982,000, or 4.62 per cent. If our estimate of 1,250.000 for England be ac- cepted, the relative increase in the twenty years from 1861 to 1881 will only be the small fraction of 0.18 percent., the difference between 4.62 and 4.80 per cent. Even if we take the returns NATIONALITIES OF EUROPE. 65. made by the officials in the different dioceses, the increase will only be 0.40 per cent, in twenty years, the difference between 4.62 per cent, in 1861 and 5.02 per cent, in 1885. The case of Ireland is clear enough. The returns by the Church gave 3,788,163 Roman Catholics, leaving 1,300,000 Protestants and a small number of Jews, and allowing for the decrease of the population we may set down the number in 1886 at 3,600,000. The number of Roman Catholics in the three kingdoms is as near as we can estimate for 1886 as follows : — Roman Catholics. Ireland 3,650,000 England and Wales .... 1,300,000 Scotland 300,000 Total .... 5,250,000 The difference between Roman Catholic returns and those of the census is trifling. Either estimate (for the Roman tables, though taking the form of returns, are based on the estimate of the priests in each diocese) makes the relation of Roman Catholics to Protestants as about 1 to 7 of the population of Great Britain and Ireland. Note 2. — Effect of Manufactures, Commerce, and Emir/ration on Population. History has shown the folly of founding theories on the sup- posed permanence of existing social conditions, and stamped emphatically the folly of such attempts to interfere with natural laws. Two of the elements which were completely to alter the data on which those theories were based had begun to develop themselves before they were formulated. These were the de- velopment of manufactures and commerce on the one hand, and the increase of emigration on the other. By the former our little island has practically enlarged its area by making the unculti- vated fields of the thinly peopled countries of Europe supply the ■Hants of her increasing and industrious population, and latterly by reaping the harvests sown by her own children on the virgin plains of a new world. The second — emigration — has assumed not only proportions but a character entirely different from that of any previous age, unless it be the gradual spreading out of the E 66 A CENTURY OF CHRISTIAN PROGRESS. primeval inhabitants of the world into the unoccupied regions around. In the nineteenth century navigation has brought the comparatively uninhabited regions in new continents within eaay access of the densely peopled lands of the old, so that emigration has become a personal or paternal adventure, in- stead of being carried out by armed bands of adventurers, by the conquest and partition of conquered lands, the settlement of disbanded .legions, or what has been the most frequent and universal cause of emigration, from the days -of Moses to those of the Stuarts — the persecutions, of which religion has been the direct or indirect cause or occasion. In this cen- tury emigration has been promoted by the development of the great law of individuality in the human race — a law which broke down the feudal system, and its artificial substitute, the absolute authority of kings, introducing the principle of repre- sentative government by slow and legal reforms in our own and some other countries, and by sudden and violent convulsions in France and other lands. The evidence of the rapid increase of population during the last hundred years is one of those facts which is now put beyond the possibility of a doubt.- The annual record of the' "vital statistics" and the "returns" of the "census" in every civilised State, the annual periodic changes or "movement" of the population, are registered with a degree of accuracy which, for all practical purposes, may be called absolutely perfect, com- pared with the old " Bills of Mortality " on which John Graunt published his "Observations" in 1661, and which led to the poetic effusions of Crabbe, in 1807, in his "Parish Register." On these certain data, now reduced to a science, we can not only calculate the rate of progress of the past, but foretell with some- thing of prophetic certainty the probabilities of the future. Had (Jrabbe lived in our day he might have sung, with the inspiration, of the modern statistics, of the rise and fall of Empires, and of the tritimphs of the kingdom of God. The increase of the population of Europe seems to date, so far as we can ascertain, from the period subsequent to the Reforma- tion. Gibbon is generally allowed to be not far from the truth when he estimates the population of the Roman Empire at the commencement of the Christian era at about 1 20,000,000, though NATIONALITIES OF EUROPE. 67 he greatly overestimates it when he compares it with the popula- tion of Europe in his own day. The possessions of Rome in Asia Minor, Syria, Egypt, and in the north of Africa were more than an equivalent in population for Scandinavia, Germania, and Sarmatia, which did not come within the boundaries of the dominion of Rome ; and if Gibbon was near the truth in reckon- ing the population at about 120,000,000, we will not be far wrong in estimating the population of Europe at 100,000,000 in the first century of the Christian era. It is probable that the numbers decreased with the decline of the Empire. It is scarcely possible that it could be otherwise during the centuries of oppression, mis- government, and bloodshed that prevailed, accompanied as they were by famine and pestilence, which rendered an increase of the people if not impossible at least most improbable. The terrible devastations of the hordes of barbarians who dismembered and for generations ruled with despotic power the separate provinces must have added to the misery and consequent decrease of the population. The rise of the new Empire, or resurrection of the old, under Charlemagne, in spite of the cruel wars which accompanied its establishment and subsequently divided its authority, was, we doubt not, the beginning of a better era. The sumptuary laws showed some regard for the maintenance of human life, and when the Empire was broken up into the separate nationalities as they are naturally marked off by natural boundaries, or by distinctions of race, now forming the great nationalities of modern times, the establishment of independent government would be the means of restoring fertility to the rising powers. The feudal system in the then existing state of society would help to foster the increase of the clans as the means of mutual protection ; but all these advantages were marred by the feuds and wars of the period, so that the increase would be slow and fluctuating. The real commencement of a new era of progress in population ■was, as we have said, at the reformation of religion in the sixteenth century. "We shall not now give the reasons for this advance in the duration and multiplication of human life. At present we only deal with it as a fact. It is very difficult to ascertain the rate of increase of population- with accuracy prior to the introduction of the periodical census, 68 A CENTURY OF CHRISTIAN PROGRESS. which was first tried in England in 1801, and has been repeated' every ten years with increasing . fulness and accuracy. All civilised countries have pursued a similar course, but at different periods and intervals, some of them with greater fulness than ours, many of them including a column for the religious pro- fession of the people — a great want in that of our country, and one which we hope to see remedied in the next census. Note 3. — Former Methods of Estimating Populations. It is practically impossible to form perfectly accurate tables extending over large areas and long periods. The means for obtaining information sufficiently full and trustworthy did not exist in early times, and the materials for careful estimates were not sufficiently reliable, while the constant changes in the area of kingdoms and empires have greatly complicated the problem. Early statisticians were not, however, without some means of arriving at tolerably near approximations, had they taken the trouble to make a judicious use of them. The registers of the Christian Church were formerly the most trustworthy sources of information. The importance attached to marriage as well as baptism in the Roman Catholic Church, as a sacrament, and in the Protestant Churches as a religious rite, secured both being duly registered and pretty carefully preserved, while the signifi- cance and solemnity of death demanded an equally careful record. In some countries, after the Reformation, these records seem, as in Scotland, to have been neglected, probably from the religious and political troubles of the period. In England, Henry VIII. appointed " Thomas Cromwell the King's Vicegerent for ecclesias- tical jurisdiction ; and in that capacity he issued certain injunc* tions to the clergy in the year 1538. One of these injunctions ordained ' that every officiating minister shall, for every church, keep a book, wherein he shall register .every marriage, christening, and burial.' . . . Every neglect therein being penal." It was thoroughly looked into in the first year of the reign of Edward VI. 1 Malthus, in his extensive travels over nearly all Europe, seems to have had no difficulty in examining these important registers. It is only toward the end of the eighteenth century that we find any- 1 Quoted in Census Returns of 1811. NATIONALITIES OF EUROPE. 69 tiling like an extensive or scientific use made of the rate of births over deaths, recorded in these registers, as a means of ascertaining the increase or diminution of the population ; and to Malthus is rightly due the honour of making the most laborious and accurate comparison of the rate in the different countries of Europe. In the seventeenth century Edward Chamberlayne adopted a simpler, easier method. In his "Angliae Notitia, or Present State of England,"— a work which went through twenty editions in his lifetime, and which he, in doubt of the conservative power of the press, ordered to be covered with wax and buried along with his other writings in his tomb — made the following calcu- lations : "England contains 9725 parishes; now, allowing to each parish one with another 80 families, there will be 778,000 families, and to each family 7 persons, there will be found in all 5,446,000 souls, and amongst them one million of fighting men," an estimate perhaps not far from the mark in 1668. Note 4. — Population of Europe now and ahundred years ago. But let us now endeavour to compare the population of Europe at the most recent censuses with the population of a hundred years ago. The present population of Europe is probably not less than 340,000,000. Behm and "Wagner, in their last publication, " Die Bevolkerung der Erde VII.," published in .1882, but calculated for a year earlier at least, give the population of Europe at 327,743,414. Before attempting to estimate the population of Europe at remote periods let us glance at two countries from which we may form a rough approximation to the probable population of the whole. Mr. John M'Gregor, M.P., in his "History of the British Empire," says : — • " The population of Britain at the time of the Boman invasion is almost universally estimated at less than 1,000,000. There is also a general concensus among historians that at the time of the Norman Conquest the population did not much exceed 2,000,000. That is to say, while the 15,000,000 of inhabitants crowded on the limited area of our little island in the year 1826 doubled itself in 60 years, the sparse population scattered over the same area ia 55 B.C. took more than 1000 years to double itself. jo A CENTURY OF CHRISTIAN PROGRESS. " From this time the rate of increase became both more rapid and more regular, and yet it took more than 400 years to double itself a second time, or about six times as long as it does at the present rate. After that the population doubled in less than 200 years. Then it doubled in about 130 years, -while the last doubling has taken place in less than 60 ; and if it continue to increase at the rate of the last ten years, it 'will, be doubled in little more than 50 years." Note 5. — Population : Roman Catholic Governments in America. The increase of the Roman Catholic powers in America during the century cannot be accurately estimated. There is little doubt but that Portugal and Spain found a dense population in the coun- tries they conquered in North and South America, but the people seem to have been degenerate if not effete when they came under the power of their new rulers, and became converts, of a doubtful kind, to Roman Catholic religion. It is probable that they not only profited under the new religion, so much superior to the debasing worship to which the religion of their early ancestors had sunk, but that the strong though harsh rule to which they were subjected arrested the decline, if it did not to some extent increase the population. The intermarriage of the conquerors with the conquered, in this as in all such cases, tended to the gradual disappearance of the distinctive feature of the superior race, and their subjection to the habits and customs of the natives. At the same time, the infusion of new blood may be the cause of the signs of new life and energy in a race which at the time of the conquest seemed in a fair way to corruption and decay or death. It is notorious that these nationalities are now showing signs of reviving prosperity and increase, but it is since they cast off both the political yoke of their conquerors and the exclusiveness of the Roman Catholic religion, by which they had been isolated from the scientific and religious thoughts of Europe and of North America. Since the establishment of their independence, these republics have' declared liberty of conscience and of worship foi all religions. That the increase of these States is considerable there can be no doubt, but the amount of the increase cannot be accurately NATIONALITIES OF EUROPE. 7i measured. The official census returns, after 1880, may be pretty accurate, but the previous returns are too uncertain to form a basis of calculation. The following table, including the chief States in which the Roman Catholic religion is still dominant, must be received with, caution. It seems to show an increase of about 2 per cent, per annum. Half the amount would be in- credibly high for such a state of society. But to give these powers the benefit of a doubt we should say .80 per cent. Table showing the Population under the Soman Catholic States of America in Recent Years. State. Date. Population. Date. Population. Mexico .... 1874 9,343,470 1882 10,460,703 Brazil .... 1872 9,930,478 1885 12,922,3751 Peru .... i860 2,865,000 1876 2 , 6 S7,863 Colombia 1870 2,951,323 1881 4,000,000! Bolivia .... 1870 2,000,000* 1878 2,303,000 Argentine Republic 1869 1,736,922 1885 3,000,000! Venezuela 1881 2,075,000 1884 2,121,988 Chili .... 1880 2.183,434 1884 2,405,041 1 Indicates our estimate. These figures are too uncertain to form a good basis for the cal- culation of a rate of increase, and many of the earlier returns are not reliable. First attempts of thi3 kind in such countries are seldom accurate if not made under very careful supervision. But they undoubtedly indicate progress, since these States have tat >b- lished their independence. If they had been increasing at the same rate during the hundred years, the population would not now be so sparse. Note 6. — Increase of Population in the United States of America. The United States of America, which by its rapid rise promises to become one of the great forces of future ages, has from first to last been essentially a Protestant power. The number of the Roman Catholic population is only a fraction of the whole, and while increasing in numbers as compared with itself, it decreases yearly in comparison with the entire population. The following 72 A CENTURY OF CHRISTIAN PROGRESS. is the return made to the headquarters of the Church in Eome, published in the Missiones Vat holicce tor I8s6 : — Catholics .... • 7>4i°,478 Priests ..... 7,306 Churches .... 6.772 Chapels .... 1,047 Parochial schools . 2,596 Scholars .... 492,949 This has all the appearance of being a substantially accurate return, though probably, like most such estimates, or ecclesiastical returns, rather over than under the mark. The proportion of priests to the people is less than it is in England by about 50 per cent. It is less than the proportion in Scotland, though not far from what it is in Ireland. In America, Ireland, and Scot- land the priests are slightly under 1 in the 1000 of the Catholic population. In England they are more than l£ in the 1000. But accepting the number as it stands, Roman Catholics are not one in seven of the population of the United States — the same as in Great Britain and Ireland. ( 73 ) CHAPTER III. PROGRESS OF CHRISTIAN NATIONS COMPARED WITH THOSE UNDER THE DOMINANT RELI- GIONS OF THE WORLD. We are now in a position to form an opinion of the effect of the different religions of the world on the increase of the population, and within certain limits to reduce the question to some- thing like arithmetical proportions. We do not pretend to have reached mathematical pre- cision ; the data are not sufficiently accurate. The census as a scientific instrument has not been applied for a sufficient length of time in many parts of the earth to allow of anything like absolute accuracy ; but there is enough to warrant important conclusions bearing on the welfare of the individual, the nation, and the human race. i. "Religion:" how understood. We shall use the term " religion " in no narrow or exclusive sense. While firmly convinced 74 A CENTURY OF CHRISTIAN PROGRESS. that the Christian religion is the only true form of religious belief and worship, and personally- attached to the strictest sect of Protestants, we gladly recognise elements of divine truth in all the great religions of the world. It would be not only a satire upon humanity but a censure on the Creator to suppose that any form of reli- gion could generally, and for any length of time, be believed and practised, if there were not in it something which appealed to the higher part of the nature of man, and to some extent met its wants and cravings. Not only so, but it is this element of truth in false systems of religion which makes men cling to the forms in which they have been born and educated, in preference to truer and purer forms when presented to them ; so that the more of truth there is in a false system, the greater the difficulty in con- verting men to a higher and better religion. We believe with the Apostle Paul that God " has not left Himself without a witness " in any nation, but that He has used means for preserv- ing the religions of the world from the effects of that tendency to formalism and corruption to which every religion is liable. This truth applies not only to the purer forms of religion in Chris- tendom, but to the heathen systems of Asia. The most remarkable proof of this is seen in that mysterious wave of religious revival in the PROGRESS OF CHRISTIAN NATIONS. 7$ sixth century B.C., which moved the minds of men from the extreme west and east of the then known world. Four men were raised up almost simul- taneously in China, India, Persia, and Greece, whose teaching and lives did much, not only to purify religion, but to preserve and perpetuate the human race. Not that they did this by mere personal effort. They were representative men and leaders, but there was a preparation in the sentiment infused into the men of the age they lived in, or their personal efforts would have failed. The beneficent influence of Confucius has only been exceeded by that of the founder of the Christian religion. That of Buddha, for a considerable period, arrested the destructive influence of Brahminical corruption and caste. Zoroaster purified Babylonian idolatry, and Pythagoras raised a higher standard of religious thought and moral feeling in the degenerate Greek race, which lasted as a theory of morals, and to some extent helped to prepare for the introduction of the practical teaching of Chris- tianity. It seems more philosophical to trace these movements, so beneficial to the human race, to the overruling influence of a superhuman power than to the fortuitous coincidence of simultaneous movements, or the undiscovered connection with a common origin, affecting as }6 A CENTURY OF CHRISTIAN PROGRESS. it did so many different minds and masses of population. 2. Religion and Race. In giving the numbers of the population of the world under the different religious creeds, both in Christian and heathen lands, we shall be struck by the fact that creeds are, to a very large extent, coincident with the races of the human family. So much so, that it will be difficult to say, in regard to the increase or decrease of population, whether it was the religion or the race which had to do with the movement of population, or whether it was a combination of the two. "We shall not here discuss this question, which, after all, ; is not so important as it seems at first sight to be. In fact it is not at all material to the subject, for either it was the religion that made the race what it is, developing those spiritual, moral, mental, and physical characteristics which dis- tinguish it, or it was the race distinguished by such characteristics which chose that religion, because it preferred it as that which commended itself to its higher instincts, and satisfied the cravings of its spiritual nature. It would not affect our inquiry even if we admitted that religion was the outcome of the natural working . PROGRESS OR CHRISTIAN NATIONS. 77 of the human mind, rather than, as we believe it is in its higher forms, an emanation from a superhuman source^ We do not treat of the question of compara- tive numbers to be classed under the different religious systems. That would be no test of their tendency to promote or retard the increase of population. It is not only where the religion is that of the government, and has a direct or indirect influence on its laws and administra- tion, that it can have any material influence on population. We shall begin with those races which are under those forms of religion which we find to be the least progressive in population, and rise to those which are productive of the highest results in this respect. I. Fetichism x is unquestionably the least pro- ductive form of religion. Taken as a whole, the populations under its influence are probably stationary, or on the decrease. In Equatorial and Southern Africa they are on the decrease, although capable of rapid self- propagation if left free from intestine wars or taken under the protection of some civilised 1 We 'accept the word, though unscientific both in its origin and use. At first used by the Portuguese, it spread to France and Germany, and has come to be used as practically the accepted name for the lowest form of religious worship. 78 A CENTURY OF CHRISTIAN PROGRESS. power; but left to themselves, having no re- straints in morality or religion, they mutually destroy each other, and the contact of modern civilisation, if not accompanied with its control, is apt to intensify the work of destruction, by the spread of new forms of. disease, and the introduction of spirits and powder increases and intensifies their passions and powers of mutual destruction. In Northern Africa they are on the increase, and as that probably includes two-thirds of the population of the continent, the increase in the one may be left to counterbalance the decrease of the other, especially when we take into account the arrest of the decrease and in some cases the positive increase under the protection of Britain and other European powers in the south and west of Africa. Other races under this Fetich religion are not only decreasing, but are apparently in a state of hopeless decay. In the Pacific Islands, includ- ing Australia and New Zealand, and in both North and South America, they are dying out ; but in the Straits of Malacca they are on the increase, under the protection or influence of Britain and Holland, but are rapidly adopting the monotheistic religion of Islam. Taken as a whole, therefore, we may regard this portion of the earth's inhabitants as on the decrease, 'PROGRESS OF CHRISTIAN NATIONS. 79 especially those who are independent of the humanising rule of some monotheistic govern- ment. These independent tribes of Fetich worshippers in all parts of the world may be roughly estimated at about 1 30 millions. None of the peoples who adhered to these forms of religion could be said to have risen to a state of civilisation, or to have formed a system of laws or a ritual of worship. Some of them show traces of having sunk from a state of semi- civilisation, and hold traditions of a higher form of religion than that which they now practise. II. Polytheism is no longer the religion of any self-ruling independent power in any country. Buddhism, though professed by a large number of people, is not the religion of any ruling race in the world worthy of being called a nation. The only apparent exceptions are such countries as Siam, Japan, Thibet, Corea, and the States on the Southern Peninsula of China. But these exceptions are only apparent. Japan, as a nation, is much more under the dominion of Shintoism than of Buddhism, and Corea is more under the influence of the Chinese Ancestral worship than that of Buddha, while the same could be said of the Southern States which are now being brought under the protection of France, as formerly they were under that of China. In the So A CENTURY OF CHRISTIAN PROGRESS. case of Siam, we know so little of what it was before it came to a large extent under British influence (as seen not only in its commerce, but in the employment of many Englishmen in her service, especially in her army and navy), that we cannot tell what the effect of Buddhism is on the increase of the population. From the nature of the system, it is not likely to favour the increase of population. It discredits mar- riage, by treating it as an inferior state to that of the monk or nun ; and though it treats life as sacred by attaching as much importance to that of an insect as of a man, it lowers the latter, rather raises that of the former, and life in any form being an evil only to be endured, its tendency is not favourable to the increase of the human race. Brahmanism, the only other great religious system of Polytheism, is no longer the religion of any independent nation. The nationalities of India which still maintain a separate existence are not independent. They exist by sufferance, and the greatest of them have received their self-government from the hands of Great Britain. Education by the schools and press has given new ideas to both rulers and people. Sanitary rules as well as the administration of law are entirely remodelled on modern principles, under which the natural rate of increase is almost as • PROGRESS OF CHRISTIAN NATIONS. 81 high as it is in the British possessions in India ; entirely different from what it was under the native rule, before British authority was established. III. Of Monotheistic religions, we find only two outside the Christian systems that claim our attention — those that bear the names of Mohammed and Confucius. The former takes the lower place — immeasurably lower as respects the increase of population. Mohammedan powers are all on the decline. The principal of them, Turkey, Persia, and Afghanistan, have all lost both territory and population during the century. Turkey and Persia have suffered from. the encroachment of Russia, the representative of the Greek Church, and Afghanistan has been hemmed in by Russia on the one side and by England on the other, while she has suffered from the effects of war. In the present century, with the exception of the North of Africa, Mohammedanism has not increased except under the protection of Chris- tian powers like Great Britain, the Netherlands, Russia, and Prance. Even Russia has improved the condition and increased the number of Mohammedans in her eastern possessions. Of Egypt with its joint protection we cannot speak as an independent power, and it is impossible 82 A CENTURY OF CHRISTIAN PROGRESS. to tell the movements of the population in Morocco. The estimates vary from a little over 2,000,000 to as many as 8,000,000, nor can the increase in the Soudan and neighbouring terri- tories under petty chiefs be accurately estimated. It is only known to be considerable. We shall therefore set down the population of the inde- pendent Mohammedan powers as stationary or retrograde. The following is the nearest approximation to the present state of the independent powers now professing the Mohammedan religion : — Islam. Turkish Empire Persia .... Afghanistan and Smaller States Morocco and Smaller States For Soudan, &c, say- Total 43,000,000 7,600,000 5,500,000 9,000,000 25,000,000 go, 100,000 Confucianism, the other great non-Christian system, is that which Confucius may be said to have petrified as a religion and perpetuated as a moral force, of which he was himself the imper- sonation, by which he moulded the social and political relations of society in the largest Empire in the world's history. The personality of Con- fucius not only dominates the millions of China ; Japan and Corea have been moulded under his influence, and Cochin-China to a less extent, 'PROGRESS OF CHRISTIAN NATIONS: 83 all these States being for the greater part of the hundred years tributary to the Emperor of China. 3. The Population of China. From the earliest times the vast population of China has formed the subject of inquiry and spe- culation, and as might have been expected it has led all kinds of writers to theorise upon it, many of whom had no special qualification for such work. As many of these writers can plead that they have visited the country, or passed through it, or lived in it, they are supposed to be compe- tent judges of the number of its inhabitants, and to speak with an authority which overawes the judgment of the multitude. One result of recent discussions of this subject is that it has become the fashion to set aside the census returns of the population of China as if they were of no more value than the thin paper on which they are written. The opinion of a man who has tra- velled 1000 miles on some of the highways of a country which is about 2000 miles long and nearly as many broad is set up in opposition to systematic census returns of the whole of China, made by tens of thousands of officials, who are less or more accustomed to the work from year to year. For, be it understood, China has from 84 A CENTURY OF CHRISTIAN PROGRESS. a very early period made a frequent census of her people. Indeed, the theory is that a census should be made every year, and specially verified every five years. And yet we find able men attempting to settle the question by observation of a few districts, or by scientific methods, or by the inner consciousness of theorists in England. But if the Chinese Government has been in the habit of making a census, why all this uncer- tainty. The reason is not far to seek. Most of those who have written on the subject have ap- proached it with ideas derived from the scientific methods of recent times and a state of society similar to our own, in expectation of finding the census of China drawn up on the same model, and with as great accuracy as those of Europe or America. If they had approached the study of the question with a little experience of the difficulty of ascertaining the population of Eng- land in the days of the Conqueror, with nothing but Domesday-Book to guide them, they would have been more likely to arrive at a correct con- clusion. 1 With a little experience of this line of inquiry, and some knowledge of China and other old-fashioned countries, let us see if we cannot get a fair conception of the population of 1 The census in China has no resemblance to Domesday-Book, except in so far as that document deals with population, and in this respect the Chinese census is the more simple and systematic. PROGRESS OF CHRISTIAN NATIONS. 85 that wonderful land. Absolute accuracy is, as a matter of course, not to be looked for. To understand the census returns of China we need to have a distinct idea of the objects for which the Government have from time immemorial tried to ascertain the number of the people. These are, first, for purposes of taxa- tion, as in all other countries ; but a second object, and one highly honourable to the huma- nity of the Government, was to ascertain the number of the people for whom provision was to be made in case of famine, by laying up store in each district according to the extent of its population. This was the theory of the ancient Emperors of China, unhappily little attended to of late. Another object, which was only aimed at occasionally, was to know the number of men capable of bearing arms, for which a census was made at irregular intervals of all the men over sixteen years of age. A fourth object was to enable the Emperor, as high-priest of the nation, to present the number of the people on the altar at the yearly sacrifice. To carry out these four objects, the Govern- ment has from time immemorial taken a census of the population. Eor the purposes of taxation they counted the heads, and for provision against famine they counted the mouths. The former meant only the heads of families ; the 86 A CENTURY OF CHRISTIAN PROGRESS. latter was the whole population. The " mouths" were generally made out not by enumeration, but by calculating the number of persons in the family, and from this has arisen a great cause of uncertainty and a fruitful source of error. The census in China may be said to be an esti- mate based on a return of the heads of families. The number of the family is an uncertain quan- tity. 1 It differs not only in the minds of dif- ferent enumerators, but it differs in various provinces, so much so that you may find China- men employing any number from 3 to 8 as a numerator for finding the population from the family. But it is, we believe, the general rule to take 6 as the numerator. In earlier times it seems to have been 5. It would be unreasonable to expect perfect accuracy in ascertaining even the exact number of families in a vast country like China, with an imperfect executive, corrupt officials, and a population ingenious in evasion ; but it was in former times the interest of the official to make a correct return of the heads for the sake of keeping up the taxes of his province, and it was also his interest and that of the people to keep up the full return of the mouths for the 1 We are aware that an accurate list of the number of each family is supposed to be placed at the door of each house in China j but as this list is made by the parent, not by the enumerator by personal observation, its accuracy in a country like China is quite unreliable. PROGRESS OF CHRISTIAN NATIONS, 87 sake of provision in times of famine when that provision was made, as it was more or less until a recent period. Another source of difficulty in arriving at a correct knowledge of the population of China lies in the wars, and still more the rebellions, which have been so frequent in that country, generally supposed to have been so peaceful and monotonous in its history. It is said that sixty successful rebellions can be counted, and no man knows the number of the unsuccessful. These rebellions have affected the census in two ways — first, by the actual destruction of the people ; and second, and to a much greater extent, by cutting off entire provinces from the possibility of enumeration, just as three provinces were left out of account in Domesday-Book. That China is capable of and actually supports a population of 380 millions is quite within the range of probability when we consider the ex- tent and nature of the country, its climate, and the character and habits of its inhabitants. This estimate is not only based on the most trust- worthy statistics, but is supported by the testi- mony of the most reliable witnesses, and the highest authorities in Germany and this country. The following considerations will, we trust, satisfy any reasonable man that the land is fully able to support 250 or 260 on an average to the square 88 A .CENTURY OF CHRISTIAN PROGRESS. mile, (a.) The population live almost entirely on vegetable diet, so that the ground supports many more than it would do if they ate animal food, (b.) The Chinese are perhaps the most skil- ful cultivators in the world, making the most ad- vantageous use of all kinds of manures, which are collected with the greatest care, and applied with the utmost skill, as in a system of gardening, to every patch of ground on the hillsides, or that can be made available by rude terraces. Sea- weeds are collected on the shore, and the sea is dredged for shells to be burned for liming the little fields, (c.) The harvest of the sea is gathered with a diligence unknown in any other country. Rivers are fished by every method by which it is possible to catch the prey by fraud or force, and estuaries are turned into farms for pisciculture, (d.) The only kinds of animal food in which they indulge is that of animals which feed on refuse or chance food, such as the pig, the dog, the duck, the fowl, and the goat. In fact they are a people to whom rats are a rarity, and " kitten cutlets " and " puppy pies " a luxury; even the fish is chiefly used as a flavour to the rice, which is the staff of life, (e.) The ■climate of most parts of the country is such as to allow of two and in some cases three crops being gathered in the year by their admirable system of irrigation and farming, or rather gardening. PROGRESS OF CHRISTIAN NATIONS. 89 We do not count on any great increase in the dependencies of the Empire. The form assumed by Buddhism in Thibet is unfavourable to in- crease, and the nomadic habits of the Mongols and Manchus are not favourable, though they are not so much under the blighting influence of Lamaism. It would weary the general reader to go over the process of proof by which we arrive at the conclusion that the population of China is not far from the high figure which is claimed for it by the Government — a claim which is allowed by the highest authorities in this country and on the Continent and in America. It is vain to expect anything like absolute accuracy in such a case, or even such a measure of accuracy as we find in the recent returns of European coun- tries. The discussion of this question we throw into a brief dissertation at the end of the book. 4. The Religion of China. The religion under which the population of China has grown up is that for which we can find no better designation than that of Mono- theistic-Ancestral religion — a corrupted form of the Patriarchal religion of which we have examples in the earlier chapters of the Bible, in 9& A. CENTURY OF CHRISTIAN PROGRESS. which the father of the family or the head of the tribe acts as both ruler and priest. In China this system never underwent the modification to which it was subjected under the Mosaic system, which provided for the separation of the priestly from the kingly offices, and introduced a body of Levites, or subordinate religious functionaries, who could act as the teachers of the people, and keep up religious worship throughout the coun- try, as was eventually done in the synagogues of the Jews. The want of this modification of Ancestral worship has led to a twofold evil in China. First, it has spread throughout the Empire the impression that no one has the right of direct approach to the Supreme Being by sacrificial rites or public worship except the Emperor, as the head and high-priest of the nation, when, amongst other religious acts, he lays the census of the population on the altar ; and second, it has prepared the way for the introduction of Buddhism, as a supplementary religion, suited to the wants of the people, who must have some form of external worship. It is only in this sense that Buddhism can be called the religion of any large number of the people of China. It has never supplanted to any appreciable extent the old Ancestral worship, although it has partially modified and added to it. It is great injustice, and a gross misrepre- PROGRESS OF CHRISTIAN NATIONS. 91 sentation of the Chinese people, to say that Buddhism is the religion of that country. So far as we know only one Emperor ever professed to believe in it, and even he dared not in the smallest degree interrupt the old form of wor- ship in his official capacity. The number of Chinamen who have actually renounced the Ancestral for the Buddhist religion is not greater than that of professed atheists in Chris- tian countries — only a fraction. It is impossible to separate the Chinese into two or three definite sects. All are what is vulgarly called Confucianists, but probably more than two-thirds of the people practise Buddhism less or more, especially the women. So far as the subject under consideration is concerned, we may ignore both Buddhism and Laoutzism. Neither materially influence the government of the country or the increase of the population. Did time permit, we might show how well this Ancestral worship is fitted to promote the increase of a population. The rate of increase in this, the only religion outside the Christian system which can be called the religion of a ruling race, is, as far as we can make out, about .60 per cent, per annum, reckon- ing over the whole period, and may be repre- sented thus for the hundred years. 1 1 In all the estimates for populations outside of Europe it must be 92 A CENTURY OF CHRISTIAN PROGRESS. Monotheistic Ancestral Worship, Powers. 1786. 1886. Increase. Millions. Millions. Millions. China Proper 230 368 138 Dependencies 16 20 4 246 388 142 Japan . 25 38 13 Corea . 8 10.5 2.5 279 436.5 '57-5 5. Roman Catholic Powers. The increase of the Roman Catholic powers of Europe we found to be about .50 per cent, per annum. To these we must add the Roman Catholic States of America. In these the increase seems to have been considerable since the estab- lishment of their independence, but as that does not cover the period, and still more owing to the uncertainty of the census in successive years we cannot raise the rate of increase for the hundred years. . They may fairly be put down thus : — understood that we do not pretend to absolute accuracy. Even those in Europe are liable to considerable errors ; but I am not aware of having put down any without a reasonable ground for the estimate, and those for Europe are all based on the best returns. .60 per cent, is the rate of increase over the whole period, not the compound rate from 3 ear to year, which would be greatly lower. PROGRESS OF CHRISTIAN NATIONS. 93 Roman Catholic Powers. 1786. 1S86. Increase. Millions. Millions. Millions. France ■ . • 26 38 ... Colonies anc Dependencies 2 25 ... 28 63 35 Austria and Hungary 31 38.8 7.8 Italy . 17-5 30.2 14.7 Spain • . 10.5 17 ... Colonies . . • 20 8 3°-5 25.2 5.5 less. Portugal . . • . 2-3 4-9 ... Colonies . . • . 12 6.5 ... 14-3 1 1.4 2.9 less. Belgium . . 35 5-9 2.4 American States 30 43 13 154-8 2i7-5 72.9 N.B. — Political changes entirely alter the relation of this to former tables. 6. The Greek Church Powers. The changes which have taken place in the relations of Russia and Turkey to the popula- tions of Southern Europe during the century, and the expansion of the former in Asia and the contraction of the latter in Europe, make a comparison extremely difficult, and we do not expect much unanimity in regard to the follow- ing numbers. They are the best we can frame in view of the past as well as of the present anomalous state of these powers. 94 A CENTURY OF CHRISTIAN PROGRESS. Greek Church Powers. 1786. 1886. Increase. Millions. Millions. Millions, Russia and Dependencies 3°. . 109.5 ... Greece * . ... 2.1 ... Eoumania 1 ... 5-7 Smaller States l . . ... 3-i ... 120.4 9P-4 7. Protestantism. The increase of the populations under the power of Protestant States. is not relatively so great as under those of the Greek Church. This is owing not only to the rapid increase of Kussia by conquest as well as by natural in- crease, but also to the emancipation of the Greek States from the dominion of the Moham- medan power of Turkey since the commence- ment - of the hundred years. But for that, the increase of the Protestant and Greek powers would have been nearly equal in ratio, but the former vastly greater in extent, as we shall see from the following table. Here also territorial changes make accurate comparison with former tables impossible : — 1 Being all subject to Turkey, the representative of Islam. PROGRESS OF CHRISTIAN NATIONS. 95 Protestant Church Powers. 1786. 1885. Increase. Powers. Millions, Millions. Millions. Great Britain and Ireland 14 37-5 16. s India , 70.0 208.5 Protected States . 30.0 57-8 iiS-S 3203 204.8 German Empire . , 7-5 48 Colonies . , . 1 7-5 49 41.5 4-5 Colonies , . , 20.0 29.0 22.7 33-5 IO.8 Sweden and Norway 6.0 6-5 •5 Denmark 2.4 2-3 .1 United States of America 3-5 57-5 54 157.6 469.1 3.1 1-7 IV. It is impossible to separate our view of the increase of these religions from their con- nection with race. The Mongolian, the Slav, and the Saxon are the three most clearly marked of the races which are progressive in respect of population. The professors of the Roman Catho- lic religion are more mixed, though the Latin and Celtic races predominate. The Slav has a great advantage in respect of territory, which gives encouragement to increase, but the Saxons are making up for this defect by emigration, which will give the advantage in the long run. The effect of the increase of population in giving increase of power leads us to consider 96 A CENTURY OF CHRISTIAN PROGRESS. the important question of the bearing of the conquests of these growing powers on the in- crease of population in the countries conquered. This is most clearly brought out in the connec- tion of England with India. We have seen that the effect of this conquest has been to add greatly to the population of that country — even although the exact figures we have given may not be accepted, the fact cannot be denied. The same may be said on .a limited area of the Dutch possessions in the East. The rule of France in Algeria has increased the population not only in their own territory, but has influenced the surrounding tribes to some extent, and the semi-warlike propaganda of Islam in the Soudan has led to more of peace and prosperity among the uncivilised tribes, and a consequent increase of population. The populations of the world, in so far as they can be classed under the heads of the principal religions, are fairly represented in the following table, from which, however, we exclude the following : — Fetichism. — The estimates of numbers now, and still more a century ago, are too uncertain to form a basis of comparison, the only cer- tainty being that the numbers are, taken as a whole, slowly on the decrease where not protected PROGRESS OF CHRISTIAN NATIONS. 97 by some power professing a higher form of religion. Buddhism, which is not now the prevailing religion of any really independent power, unless Siam be reckoned one. Brahmanism, which only exists and increases under the protection of Great Britain. A Comparative View of the Population of the Ruling Powers under the Different Dominant Religions (in millions). Eellgions. 1786. 1886. Increase in 100 Years. Decrease in 100 Tears. d f (Greek Church 3° 120 go 3 Christian. ) Roman Catholic 154 217 63 « 1 ( Protestant . 157 468 311 o ) Non- I Confucian and ) g 1 Christian. ) Shinto . { 436 279 157 ™ \ ( Islam 8q 8q none Polytheism .... 70 none 70 Fetichism .... 175 130 45 If to these we add 1 5 millions which we have not been able to classify under any of the above heads, such as Siam and some smaller States in Asia and Switzerland in Europe, we shall make the population of the world at the present time about 1437 millions, which may be represented thus : — 9 8 A CENTURY OF CHRISTIAN PROGRESS. The Population of the World, under the Ruling Powers representing the Principal Religions, with the increase during the century {in millions'). 1786. 1886. Increase. Decrease. ( Christian . Monotheistic < ( Non-Christian . 34i 363 805 487 464 124 ... Polytheistic .... 70 none ... 70 175 130 45 N.B. — None of these figures give the numbers belonging to the different religions. That is a different question, and gives very different results, 8. Effect of British Rule. The effect of British rule on the population of the whole world is a most important factor in the future of the world's history. Not only does her influence extend over the peoples directly governed, but over the tribes bordering on her colonies and dependencies. The following figures will give an idea of the extent of this influence in its different forms at the end of 1886, calcu- lated at the rate of increase from the last and the preceding census : — Great Britain and Ireland Colonial Possessions Indian Possessions . Native States . 37,500,000 16,500,000 208,500,000 57,800,000 320,300,000 PROGRESS OF CHRISTIAN NATIONS. 99 If this enormous aggregate of human beings under one powerful government were congre- gated in one compact region of the earth it would be something to be feared — a power that might dominate and enslave the world; but scattered as it is over the whole habitable globe, its power to benefit the human race is much greater than its power to oppress. Peace is the condition of its prosperity, freedom and liberty are essential to its development, and beneficence or philanthropy the justification of its existence. If we merge the distinctions which separate the three divisions of the Christian Church, there are only three religions in the world which are the dominant belief of the ruling race in any country which has. any pretension to civilisation even in its most crude form. Leaving out of account savage tribes, with their unformulated beliefs, all the rest of the human race, with a few exceptions, which are more apparent than real, are governed by races which believe in Christia- nity, Mohammedanism, or Confucianism, and all the three aee monotheistic. The other systems are dethroned. The reins of government are taken from the hands of all idolatrous religions by races holding the higher and purer faith. Hin- duism, an indefinite expression for the countless forms assumed by the Brahminical religion, has lost all rule in India. About four-fifths of its ioo A CENTURY OF CHRISTIAN PROGRESS. professors are under the direct government of our Christian Queen, and those under the ad- ministration of native princes are influenced and controlled by the Imperial Government of India. Buddhism is not the religion of any really independent State. All its votaries are directly or indirectly under the sway of Christian or Con- fucian governments. Ceylon, Burmah, Assam, the Malay Peninsula, and even such a State as Nepal, ruled by the Hindu race, has its British Eesident. The apparent exceptions, like Siam, Annam, Tonquin, and others, are less or more under the influence of England or France. The Buddhists of China and the dependent States to the north and west are entirely subordinate to the Ancestral religion of the country, which is not only the religion of the ruling and educated classes, but in one sense the religion of the mass of the people. Through- out the length and breadth of China, with the exception of its dependencies, there will not be found more than a few millions, including Jews and Mohammedans, who do not profess and practise the Confucian or Ancestral system of worship, even though a large proportion of them take advantage of the rites and prayers of the Buddhist ceremonial on important occasions in domestic and social life. The three religions of China are mutually supplementary of one PROGRESS OF CHRISTIAN NATIONS. 101 another: the system of Confucius is based on human reason and history, that of Laoutze appeals to the imagination and the superstitious elements in our nature, while Buddhism rests on the emotions and sentiments of the man. But while in some degree suited by their combina- tion to meet the wants of humanity, they fail to satisfy it, and thus tend respectively to scep- ticism, mysticism, and ritualism. You will often find a Chinaman practising all three without any sense of impropriety, but usually he gives a precedence to that which appeals most to the prevailing tendency of his natural disposition, and will give a preference to the religion of Con- fucius, Laoutze, or Buddha as reason, imagina- tion, or feeling predominate in his nature. There are two things which give an over- whelming preponderance to the Ancestral wor- ship of China. First, the Chinaman is essentially conservative, and to relinquish the faith of his fathers is contrary to his nature. Second, reason or common sense is the basis of his character ; in imagination and emotion he is essentially weak. Hence the mass of Chinamen are Con- fucianists. The other more modern systems are only subordinate, and are not so used as to interfere with the old creed. Japan is no ex- ception, for there, though Buddhism is more potent than it is in China, yet even there the 102 A CENTURY OF CHRISTIAN PROGRESS. Shinto religion occupies somewhat the same place that Confucianism does in China, but has not the same firm hold of the less conservative and more versatile race. Buddhism, as modified by the Shinto and Confucian systems, may be allowed to be the dominant religion of Japan ; but having so limited a sphere of direct control as it exerts in Japan, Siam, and the neigh- bouring State of that southern peninsula, it cannot be classed as one of the principal religions of the world in so far as our present inquiry is concerned. It has exerted and does still exert an influence on other religions, and thereby on the country in which it exists, and to that extent affects population. A very small sect may in this way exert a powerful influence. No student of. English history can doubt that the Quakers have exerted an influence on the moral tone and on the legislation of our country far beyond that which their limited numbers would have led a mere statistician to expect. We have not time to draw the many lessons suggested by the facts brought before us in this chapter. We would only call attention to the responsibility involved in the position now held by the Christian States of the world, and espe- cially that of Protestant States to which Provi- dence has assigned such a large preponderance of power and influence. A third part of the PROGRESS OF CHRISTIAN NATIONS. 103 population of the entire world is under the dominion of Protestant powers. How different from the condition of the world a hundred years ago. How much more does it differ from that before or even after the Eeformation. We may add what a hope it is fitted to inspire in the Protestant Church. The natural law increase of population is in her favour. If only true to her family religion she will make rapid way as compared with other religions, whether in the unreformed churches or in heathen and Mohammedan systems, while the conquests of Protestant nations have added vastly to the influence they may exert, if only true to God and their own profession. But everything depends on this, and this is the great source of anxiety. There is, however, much ground for hope. With all our faults there is much that is good and true in our social, political, and religious life, and with the vast amount of light now filling the world, and with the Bible as a hand-book in every land, it needs only the descent of the Spirit of God in His quickening power to turn the streams of moral culture and religious knowledge into the good wine of the Kingdom of God. 104 A CENTURY OF CHRISTIAN PROGRESS. Increase of Population in India. Starting with what we may now call the knovm rate of increase during the last nine years, which we have seen was not a favour- able period, but on that account may be all the more represen- tative of the state of India when it was not so completely under our control and subject to those peaceable and sanitary condi- tions which have been of gradual and comparatively recent growth, we have a standard of measure of great value in the results of the two last returns. We have another valuable means of arriving at an approximate accuracy of the population at earlier periods, viz., the occasional census of particular parts of India which not only gave the rate of increase for those parts, but enable those interested in such inquiries to form more accurate estimates for the whole of India before any census was taken. This "measure" must, however, be used under two impor- tant limitations. First, that the extent of the British dominion and influence was much less at the commencement than at the close of the hundred years. Second, that the same is true of the sanitary conditions of our Indian Empire. Again, as the exten- sion of the British dominions and influence has been gradual, the rate of increase of population must have been also gradual. On these grounds our measure will be a diminishing one, as we go back from the known to the less known period, but as it will diminish at a gradual rate, we may be allowed to calculate for its diminution as we recede in time, in the same way as a scientist is compelled to make allowance for the increase or decrease in the length of his measure or pendulum as he changes his latitude north or south, if he has no means of compensating for the effects of cold and heat. We have no " compensation rods " with which to measure our rate of increase, but we may apply a rule which will correct the " errors of variation." This must be by taking into consideration the different conditions of society at different periods, as we recede from the present ascertained annual rate of increase during the nine years from 1872 to 1881. The principle on which we shall proceed is to reduce the annual rate of increase as we go back toward the period when PROGRESS OF CHRISTIAN NATIONS. 105 the present conditions did not exist in all their force, and when the movement of the population must have been much less. If we went back to the period prior to our rule we would find it had been kept almost stationary by the constant fluctuations between periods of comparative prosperity and consequent increase, and periods of destructive wars, and desolating famines, and wasting pestilence. It is a matter of much uncertainty whether the population of India had materially increased from the days of Alexander to the period of the British conquest ; on the contrary, there is good ground for the opinion that it had declined. If we applied the measure of the increase during the last known period to the whole of the hundred years, we would only have to divide the population at the present time by two, as .70 per cent. per annum of increase will double the population in a hundred years. By making allowance for the increase from February of 1 88 1 to the end of 1886 the population of India would, in round numbers, be more than 260,000,000, and in 1786 it would have been 1 30,000,000 ; but the conditions of society were not such as to make such a rate of increase possible. The process by which we would attempt to reach a solution of the question is as follows. The average increase during the nine yeara for which we find the rate was .70 per cent, per annum, which is a low one ; we apply the same rate to the three decades from 1886 back to 1856, shortly before the government was assumed by the Queen and her Ministers, from which time the sanitary, educational, and administrative arrangements for the promotion of health and peace, and consequent increase of popu- lation, were largely developed. Prior to that time we would apply a gradually diminishing rate of increase each decade as we go back to 1786, so that at the beginning of the hundred years the rate would be only half of what it was at the close. By our descending scale we arrive at the conclusion that the population of India in 1786 would be about 150,000,000. If this number were doubled, as it would be in the hundred years by the rate of .70, at its close it would have made the population in 1886 300,000,000, so that 40,000,000 are thrown off for the worse con- ditions of the earlier period. This seems as large a deduction as could be allowed. Starting with this assumed number, and with .35 as the rate of increase for the first ten years, just the 106 A CENTURY OP CHRISTIAN PROGRESS. half of what it is known to have been for the last thirty years, and increasing at the rate of .05 for each succeeding decade up to 1856, and multiplying by .70 for the three remaining decades, the following is the result, roughly calculating by the average for the ten years, not minutely year by year, or what might be called the compound rate of increase : — Table showing Progressive Increase of the Population of India durmg the last hundred years, on estimates given above. (Figures below a thousand disregarded. ) Tears. Rate of Population. Increase of India. Aggregate as estimated. 1786 150,000,000 1786-96 • 35 5,250,000 *5S. 2 5°.°°o 1796-1806 .40 6,210,000 161,460,000 1806-16 •45 7,365,000 168,825,000 1816-26 •50 8,444,000 177,276,000 1826-36 •55 9,749,000 187,015,000 1836-46 .60 11,220,000 198,235,000 1846-56 •65 12,885,000 211,120,000 1856-66 .70 14,778,000 225,898,000 1866-76 .■70 15,822,000 241,720,000 1876-86 Total .70 increase in 16,920,000 1 hundred years, 258,640,000 108,640,000 This coincidence we do not take as a proof of the accuracy of our hypothesis, but as discoveries are rarely made without some hypothesis to start with, the coincidence, based as it is on a care- ful combination of ascertained facts as to the rate of increase of late years, and a careful consideration of the political and social condition of the country during the period, has its value. We do not assume that the rate was uniform over the whole time. The history of India has never been an uninteresting level. It has always had its ups and downs, but the worst of our wars has never been of a devastating kind like those of our Asiatic fore- runners, and the tendency of our administration has always been upwards and onwards in the path of peace and progress. INDEX. America, population of, 48, 71, 72 Ancestral worship in China, 96 Atheists, 62 Bertillon, Dr. J., 44, 47 Bible, regenerator of Europe, 40 Birth-rate, 2, 31 Bodio, Signor, 12, 23, 31 Brahmanism, no dominion, 80, 97.99 British rule, the effect of, 98, 104 Buddhism, no dominion, 79, 97, 100 Charlemagne, 67 China, 87, 88, 89, 101 Christianity, influence of, 36-41, 61 Commerce and population, 9, 65 Confucianism, 82 Emigration, the effect of, 9, 65, 66 Fetichism and population, 77, 96 Feudal system, 66 Food, increase of, 9, 10 France, census in, 21, 44, 59, 62 Greek Church, 4, 18, 46 Increase of population, 6, 12, 25, 28, 29, 48, 49, 55, 66 Increase, natural laws of, 8, 33, 53 religious significance of, 16, 27 — — comparative, of Protestants, Roman Catholics, and mem- bers of the Greek Church, 25, 26 of population in India, 104, 105, 106 of population in China, 91, 92 Ireland, 43, 56, 63-65 Malthus, 10, 11, 68, 69 Mohammedanism declining, 81 Monotheism, 81, 99 Polytheism, 79 Population, increase of, 6, 28, 29 of Europe in 1786, 13, 67, 69 increase of, 24, 27, 61, 95 influence of, 102, 103 Rate at which population doubles, 15. 16. 33. 43 increase of, in Europe, 34, 52. 56, 95 Reformation, 3, 28, 39, 66, 67 Reformers, four simultaneous, 75 Religion, influence of, 41,60,73-82 Roman Catholic missions, 17, 18 Roman Catholics in Europe, 24, 63 in America, 70, 71, 93 Russia, 5, 33 io8 INDEX. Saxon race, Protestant, 4, 27 an emigrating, 54, 55 Table comparing the numbers belonging to Protestant, Roman Catholic, and Greek Churches, 22 showing States of Europe in 1786, 30 showing increase of popula- tion of Europe during present century, 31 showing increase of popula- tion of Europe over two different periods, 32 showing annual rate of in- crease in the population of the countries of Europe, 34 showing the periods in which the population of Britain has doubled, 44 showing how the increase of population affects the destiny of nations, 45 showing increase of popu- lation in United States of America, 49 showing population of Pro- testant and Roman Catholic powers in Europe, 30 of the population of Europe under three religious groups, SI.S2 showing the increase of popu- lation for ten years prior to last census, 57> 5& of Roman Catholics in Eng- land, 63 of Roman Catholics in Scot- land, 64 of Roman Catholics in Ire- land, 65 of Roman Catholics in America, 71, 72, 93 showing state of Moham- medan powers, 82 showing increase of popula- tion under Monotheistic an- cestral worship, 92 showing increase of popu- lation under Greek Church powers, 95 showing increase of popula- tion under Protestant powers, 95 showing the population of ruling powers under dominant religions, 97 showing increase during the century in principal religions of the world, 98 showing extent of the in- fluence of British rule, 98 showing progressive increase of population of India, 106 Wealth of the French and Saxon compared, 61 Westphalia, treaty of, 49 PRINTED BY BALLANTYNK, HANSON AND CO. EDINBURGH AND LONDON. MISSIONARY PUBLICATIONS REPORT OF THE CENTENARY CONFERENCE ou^ m Protestant Missions of the World. Held in London, June, iSSV! Edited by the Kev. James Johnston, F. S. S., Secretary of the CoJ ference. Two large bvo. vols., 1200 pages, $2.00 net per set. An important feature in this report, lark of which has prejudiced many against revpon in general, is the special care taken by the Kditor, whi has succeeded in making the wt" 1 an interesting and accurate reproduction of the most important accumulation of facts fn the Mission Fields of the Wotid, as given by the representatives of all the KvangeUi Societies of Christendom. And another: I he exceptionally complete and helpful indexing Of the entire work in such a thorough manner as to make it oi the greatest value ft$ a Reference Encyclopedia on miision topics for years to come. THE MISSIONARY YEAR BOOK FOR iP??-no. Containing Historical and Statistical accounts of the Principle Protestant Missionary! 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I Blessing- ami Need of Blessing— I In the Far La,.. Rev. C. H. Spurgeok, write*: -™, " I have greatly enjoyed ' In the Far East.' God blessing it, the book should send 1 armies of believers to invade the Howry Land. 1 ' The author is to be congratulated fo. the taste and beauty with which these letters are now put into permanent form. A full page colored map of China enhances this ud- nnrable gift book. NEW YORK: „ ripmJDa U Dglipll CHICAGO: 13 Bible House, Astor PI. ( "&'UU/<£ j ' • ly&V&ll 148 & 150 Madison St,