Protectionist Peril Q. H. PERRIS METHUEN & CO. ONE SHILLING BOUGHT WITH THE INCOME FROM THE SAGE ENDOWMENT FUND THE GIFT OF 189Z ^A/7^U'( : ^/Cfa^ 5474 Cornell University Library arV13104 The protectionist peril; 3 1924 031 270 394 olin,anx Cornell University Library The original of tliis bool< is in tine Cornell University Library. There are no known copyright restrictions in the United States on the use of the text. http://www.archive.org/details/cu31924031270394 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL "That, while the Colonies should be left absolutely free to impose what protective duties they please both on foreign countries and British produce, they should be required to make a small discrimination in favour of British trade, in return for which we should be expected to change our whole system and should impose duties on food and raw material . . , ray own opinion is that there is not the slightest chance that in any reasonable time this country, or the Parliament of this country, would adopt so one-sided an agreement. The foreign trade of this country is so Urge, and the foreign trade of the Colonies is comparatively so small, that a small prefer- ence given to us upon that foreign trade by the Colonies would make so small a difference — be so small a benefit to the total volume of our trade— rthat I do not believe the work- ing classes of this country would consent to make such a revolutionary change for what they would think so infinitesi- mal a gain." — The Rt. Hon. Joseph Chamberlain, M.P., in opening the Conference of Home and Colonial Chambers of Commerce in London, loth June 1896. THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL AN EXAMINATION OF Mr. CHAMBERLAIN'S PROPOSALS BY GEORGE HERBERT FERRIS METHUEN & CO. 36 ESSEX STREET W.C. LONDON 1903 PREFACE 'TPHE following chapters are offered as a small contribution toward that "serious and scientific study " of Mr. Chamberlain's and similar proposals for which Mr. Balfour has appealed. I have tried to set forth in easily comprehensible form the actual facts of British trade, as they are reflected in the latest official statistics, and to show their bearing upon the problem of the day, without vain repetition of any " old shibboleths. "^ In so wide a review it is perhaps too much to hope that all error has been eliminated from the calculations ; and I shall be very grateful for correction. Where, in the absence of a detailed scheme, Mr. Cham- berlain has compelled me to resort to hypo- thesis, I have based myself upon those available facts by which any statesman must be bound, vi PREFACE and have given the speculation as real and rational a character as possible. Some parts of the volume have appeared in the Daily News ; and I am indebted to the Editor for permission to reprint them. G. H. P. 5 Henrietta Street, W.C. June 12, 1903. CONTENTS PAGE I. The Failure of Expansion . . . i II. The Pressure of Foreign Competition . ii III. Our Best Customers .... 19 IV. A Significant Failure in Canada . . 26 V. Mr. Chamberlain's Discouragements, and A "Volte Face" . . . .36 VI. A Scheme of Preferential Trade Ex- amined ...... 53 VII. Food and Raw Material: the Crux of the Question . . . .63 VIII. Mythical Wages and Impossible Pensions 81 IX. How WE hold the World in Fee . . icxj X. The Price of Retaliation . . .111 XI. Conclusion . . . . .124 APPENDICES I. Imports and Exports : (I.) Analysis by Countries; (II.) Analysis by Articles; (III.) Food and Raw Material: Sup- plies FROM THE Empire and Foreign Countries Compared . . '134 II. (Three Tables.) Military Expenditure OF the United Kingdom, British Col- onies, AND Foreign Countries Com- pared . . . . . .141 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL THE FAILURE OF EXPANSION THE idea of "preferential trade" is a natural development of the Imperialism of the past decade. It represents the last desperate effort of the more extreme and logical Imperialist to meet a threefold diffi- culty — The growth of British burdens. The growth of foreign competition. The growth of Colonial Protectionism. The decay of native agriculture and the consequent dependence of this country upon oversea food supplies, to which Mr. Chamber- lain, Mr. Balfour, and Lord Rosebery alike have referred, is a minor factor, inasmuch as 2 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL the pressing problem is one of normal times of peace rather than of the imaginary period of a monstrous world-embracing war. We shall see before we end that the alter- native to Mr. Chamberlain's policy lies in grappling boldly with these difificulties — especi- ally in reducing our burdens, and in increasing our power to meet foreign competition as alone it can be permanently met. The new Imperial Protectionism is an evasion of both issues. In the first place, it presumes the indefinite continuance, and even the indefinite increase, of the costs of Empire. Mr. Cham- berlain is, indeed, largely responsible for the policy of " pegging out claims " which has doubled the cost of our armaments in ten years, has enormously added to our debt and taxation, and has increased our responsibilities in the same period by the incorporation of new possessions at the average rate of ten millions of population per annum. Whatever may be said of other Ministers, this has indeed been Mr. Chamberlain's exclusive policy. It cannot be suggested that he has shown any anxiety to placate the foreigner, to further the use of arbitration, to seek an arrest of arma- ments, or to suppress the lust after new terri- tories. At the same time, he informs the THE FAILURE OF EXPANSION 3 Colonial Premiers that " the weary Titan staggers under the too vast orb of his fate " — and his reporter does not even temper the emphasis by putting the words within quotation marks. It is necessary, therefore, that these quasi-independent commonwealths should come to our aid in the business of "civilising" "child races" and inconvenient republics off the face of the earth. With deference to Mr. Seddon, I do not think they are in the least likely to undertake anything so foolish. In the meantime, it is important to bear in mind that a leading motive and aim of the Preferential Trade movement is the maintenance of the business of militarism and domination to which so many of our late troubles are due. Moreover, it is at last practically admitted that territorial expansion has been a failure, so far as regards its commercial object. " It has been said sometimes that trade follows the flag, and that has been disputed. I am afraid," Mr. Chamberlain admitted at the Colonial Confer- ence last year, " that it does not do so neces- sarily, and certainly as we should desire." Mr. Chamberlain does not make confessions — especially confessions of the failure of ten years' persistent labour — without a purpose. Here the purpose is plain : Imperialism as we have 4 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL had it having failed, a stricter form of monopoly must be invented. The failure cannot be too clearly apprehended. Millions of pounds of British capital have been invested in these new estates ; the cost of the expeditions, armaments, and administration required to secure them has gone up by yearly leaps and bounds. The progress of invention has been ceaseless ; inter- communication has been steadily improved at home and abroad ; the size of the producing community at home has been constantly in- creasing. Yet, with all this effort and sacrifice, trade hardly keeps pace with the increase of population in the older British territories, and there is no sort of compensation for the cost of more recent acquisitions. What are the broad facts ? Let us look first at the general course of our oversea trade. In 1885 the exports of British merchandise were at the low point of 2 1 3 millions sterling. From this they rose to 263 millions sterling in 1890. Then there was a drop to 216 millions sterling in 1894. The level of 1898 was midway between these points — 233 millions sterling, or exactly the same value as in 1884, before the period of active territorial acquisitions had begun. In 1901 (even including nine millions worth of ships and their machinery exported) THE FAILURE OF EXPANSION S they reached only 280 millions, or about 6 per cent, above the high level of 1890. The total imports and exports (including re-exports) of the United Kingdom suffered similar fluctua- tions, running up from 618 millions sterling in 1886, to 748 millions sterling in 1890; then dropping to 682 millions sterling in 1894, and rising again to 764 millions sterling in 1898, and 869 millions in 190 1. In our imports there is, indeed, a very considerable increase — a fact the significance of which we shall consider in a later chapter, and of which I need now only say that a partial explanation has been found in the extensive repurchases by the United States of American securities in the British market in recent years. So far it cannot be said that there is any serious cause for alarm as to the general volume of our external' trade. It is important to re- member, also, in the first place, that foreign trade is, even in our own case, a very im- perfect measure of national prosperity ; in the second place, that owing to the general fall in prices the above figures do not fully represent the real expansion of sales in the period named ; and, in the third place, that the import, but not the export, values include cost of freight and insurance. 6 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL In themselves the figures are as satisfactory as could be expected, for England could hardly hope to enjoy in permanence the supreme posi- tion as the world's manufacturer which the In- dustrial Revolution and her geographical and other economic advantages gave her for a time. It is when we proceed to analyse these general results, comparing our relations respectively with foreign countries and with other parts of the Empire, and subdividing the latter again into self-governing parts — Colonies proper— and non-self-governing, or dependencies ; above all, it is when we consider the bill of costs that has to be paid largely out of the profits of this trade, that we begin to see that there is genuine cause for anxiety as to the future. In each of these three departments of our commerce, and in the mass of State expenditure which has to be charged against them, there is matter for the most serious thought. Has Mr. Chamberlain given us a true and full analysis of the situa- tion ? Has he concentrated public attention upon the features which are really most grave ? Are the interests for which he is concerned those of the few or of the many? Or is he guilty of the worst offence of a commercial statesman, that of dressing a shallow thought in the gauds of a perilous sensationalism ? THE FAILURE OF EXPANSION 7 There is much easy talk nowadays of the unity of the Empire, but no rapid progress toward that ideal can be made till the funda- mental fact of the extreme economic hetero- geneity of the Empire is accepted and under- stood. The self-governing Colonies, that are now absorbing most of Mr. Chamberlain's attention, are doubtless important to us far out of proportion to their population, which (the white part of it) amounts to less than 3 per cent, of the whole population of the Empire. But it is absurd to forget the immensely prepon- derant interests of the United Kingdom, and it is neither fair nor safe to ignore the interests of those immense territories which are dependent upon the wisdom of Whitehall. The following chapters, intended as they are for the British and Colonial citizen, are necessarily concerned for the most part with the triangular relationship of the British Isles, the Colonies, and foreign countries. In a fuller discussion of the subject, those less fortunate lands which hold the great body of the subjects of the King-Emperor would loom more largely. Some of them have great areas of chronic poverty, and are subject to economic disasters such as the Colonies never suffer. They show every variety of economic condition ; but in one respect their 8 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL case is almost uniform and is akin to that of the United Kingdom. The will of their British rulers has saved them from the manifold evils of Protectionism. Mr. Chamberlain has re- peatedly declared his object to be " Free Trade within the Empire." Judged by population 97 per cent, of the Empire is already under Free Trade ; and the question whether fiscal unity is to be reached by the advance of the 3 per cent., or the retrogression of the 97 per cent., is one on which India has surely as much right to be heard as Canada or Australia. The Indian Government, so far as I know, has never proposed to restrict the external trade of the great dependency.^ Is not this a matter too large to treat as an accident in Anglo-Colonial arrangements? Again, in any fuller attempt to expose the weak points in our commercial position and to determine how British policy can be modified to deal with them, it would be necessary straightly to face the evidence as to the trade value of the newer additions to the Empire, and to answer the question whether territorial expansion is to continue or not. Certain it is 1 The imposition of countervailing duties on European bounty-fed sugar imports is an exception to the general Free Trade policy of the Indian Government. THE FAILURE OF EXPANSION 9 that the huge possessions which we have taken in Africa in the last few years at such enor- mous cost of life and treasure, and at such risks in the present and for the future, do not show any sign of paying for themselves. The richest of them, the Transvaal and Orange State, have cost us between 200 and 300 millions sterling in hard cash ; much of the gain, such as there is, will go not to British, but to American and German manufacturers and traders. The most certain thing about our other recent acquisitions is the growth of expenditure on punitive expeditions and the immeasurable risks in which they are involving us. Thousands of square miles nominally British are not even explored ; active, thorough, and competent administration is almost unimaginable. A Parliamentary re- turn (3rd July 1902), made by the Under- Secretary for Foreign Affairs at the instance of Mr. Evelyn Cecil, shows that the vast territories of Uganda, British East Africa, and British Central Africa, which are supposed to have a population of about 7^ millions — in- cluding perhaps 1000 Britishers all told — do not nearly pay the cost of such administration as we can give them. In its first financial year (1891-92) the revenue of British East lo THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL Africa, about ;^ 17,000, exceeded the expendi- ture by ;^4ooo,' ten years later the revenue was only ;^83,6i9, while the expenditure had risen to ;^ 180, 11 8. The expenditure of British Central Africa is double the revenue, a loss to the British taxpayer of ;^50,ooo a year. Uganda costs ;^2 24,73i (as com- pared with ;^64,ooo seven years ago), to say nothing of the capital cost of the great railway, and the revenue is only a quarter of this amount. The trade of these, as of the Soudan and other territories, is a dream of the future. For these parts of the Empire a Preferential Trade scheme offers us no hope ; but evidently they cannot be ignored in any serious attempt to stop the leaks of our economic and political system. Their lesson is for the conqueror rather than the manufacturer and merchant. The right honourable gentlemen who have, in fifteen years, -raised the population of the Empire from 300 to 450 millions, and its area from eight to twelve million square miles, may well be disappointed. It is when we compare the slow growth of trade with the enormous increase in the cost of armaments and Imperial administration, and these three factors with the related figures in the case of our chief com- mercial rivals, that we find cause for alarm. II THE PRESSURE OF FOREIGN COMPETITION THE rivalry presses just in proportion as these countries — the United States, Germany, and France in particular — escape the burdens, direct and indirect, which we have undertaken. There are, of course, other factors to be considered, the chief of which have been ably summarised and reviewed by Sir Courtney Boyle and Sir A. E. Bateman in two very valuable Blue Books.^ In the thirty years 1 871-1900 the poptilation of France increased by less than three millions, that of the United Kingdom by ten millions, that of Germany by over fifteen millions, that of the United States by thirty-seven millions. In the course of two or three years the American Republic will count twice as many people as 1 "Memorandum on British and Foreign Trade,'' 1897, Cd. 8322 ; ditto, 1902, Cd. 1199. 12 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL these islands. The increase of town popula- tions in Germany, and still more in the States, has in each case alone greatly exceeded the whole increase in this country ; and the totals are now : United Kingdom 42 millions, Ger- many 57 millions, United States 76 millions. Comparing the average coal production of 1870-74 with that of 1 896-1 900, we find that the increase was only 74 per cent, in England, while it amounted to 106 per cent, in France, 203 per cent, in Germany, and 383 per cent, in the United States. In the production of iron and steel America has long passed us ; and in- deed her economic resources are in general in- comparably larger. According to the United States Census Department, the increase of industrial capital in the decade 1890- 1900 was 51 per cent,, the increase in the number of industrial establishments 44 per cent,, of the average number of wage earners 25 per cent, (to 5,321,100), of total wages 23 per cent., and of value of products 39 per cent. In view of such facts as these, a dispropor- tionate increase of the foreign trade, especially, of the United States and Germany as com- pared with our own, was to be expected. The facts may be briefly set forth as follows : — PRESSURE OF FOREIGN COMPETITION 13 TOTAL EXPORTS— IN Million £ Sterling. 1894. 1895- 1896. 1897. 1898. 1899. 1900. United Kingdom . 273 28s 296 294 294 329* 354 United States . 18s 168 183 218 256 265 307 German Empire 162 183 19s 197 202 225 248 France . 164 183 183 192 186 221 220 IMPORTS— in Million £ Sterling. United Kingdom . 408 416 441 451 470 485 523 United States . 136 152 162 159 128 166 172 German Empire 210 221 231 249 269 291 306 France . 191 196 197 205 223 233 239 It will be seen that the period is one of general trade expansion, and that, while all three of these rival countries have increased their exports more rapidly than we have done, their general economic profits, as shown in im- ports, have not increased more rapidly. The * Value of new ships and their machinery exported — about nine millions sterling — now first included. 14 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL following table shows the essential facts in more summary form : ^ — EXPORTS OF DOMESTIC PRODUCE (SHIPS EXCLUDED)— IN Million £ Sterling. S Years' Averages. Increase per cent. 1880-1884. I 896- I 900. United Kingdom 234 249 6.4 France 138 ISO 8.7 Germany . 156 192 23.1 United States . 166 237 42.8 An examination of details shows rather more serious cause for reflection. French exports of manufactured articles have increased by 1 2 per cent, in the last fifteen years, German by 36 per cent., and American by 154 per cent.; while, at the same time, British exports of the 1 The figures of values represent increased quantities of goods, as prices generally have fallen ; but this is the case both in exports and imports, both in the home and the foreign stat- istics. The price figures, therefore, afford a fair basis for com- parison and deduction, except that the non-inclusion of exports of ships and their machinery tells especially against the United Kingdom. Indeed, there are no others available ; the figures of weight, covering as they do the most diverse articles in shift- ing proportions, being useless for comparison except in details. PRESSURE OF FOREIGN COMPETITION 15 same category have been practically stationary, and we have been purchasing foreign manu- factured or partly-manufactured goods at a growing rate. There is fine stuff for the alarmist here ; but the scientific study of the problem for which Mr. Balfour appeals will give a dif- ferent result. In the first place, it must be reflected that the competition of what we may call artificial exports is not to be feared in the long-run ; and no one knows better than Mr. Chamberlain, who may be credited with the authorship of the Brussels Anti-Sugar Bounties Convention, that the Protectionism of Germany and the United States has resulted in a large proportion of the exports of these countries being of an artificial and non-profit- able character. But they are, of course, largely natural, arising from various kinds of economic advan- tage. An expansion of this commerce was, of course, to be expected. Cobden and the other early Free Trade leaders had that certainty fully in mind. The two permanent officials of the Board of Trade, to whose reports we have referred, seem to me to put the matter very fairly. " Beginning from a lower level," said Sir Courtney Boyle in 1897, "each country is for 1 6 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL the moment travelling upwards more rapidly than we are, who occupy a much higher emi- nence. If peace is maintained, both Germany and the United States, and to some extent France also, are certain to increase their rate of upward movement. Their competition with us in neutral markets, and even in our home markets, will probably, unless we are ourselves active, become increasingly serious. Every year will add to their acquired capital and skill, and they will have larger and larger additions to their population to draw upon." This forecast has been more than realised. In 1 90 1 the exports of the United States — 1,465 million dollars — fell little short of our own, and just one-half of them went to the British Empire ; while of American imports — 880 million dollars — only one-third came from British territories. Comparing the average of 1 896-1900 with that of 1880-84, our imports from the United States increased by nearly 25 per cent, while our exports thither fell 34^ per cent. In May 1902 Sir A. E. Bateman thus summed up the situation : " The increase of population in Germany and the United States has recently been greater than the increase in the United Kingdom, and those countries have PRESSURE OF FOREIGN COMPETITION 17 rapidly developed manufacturing and industrial power. As with ourselves, so with those countries, the set of population has been to the towns ; necessarily, therefore, there has been a more vigorous search than formerly for an outlet for the power above referred to. We are still ahead of either country in our power of manufacture for export ; but, beginning from a lower level, each country is travelling upwards more rapidly than we are who occupy a higher eminence. ... It is necessary, therefore, more than ever, that the change of conditions should be recognised, and we can scarcely expect to maintain our past undoubted pre-eminence, at any rate without strenuous effort and careful and energetic improvement in method. The problem how best this can be done is of vital interest to all classes of the industrial and com- mercial community alike, though the assistance which the State can give in the matter must necessarily be of a limited character." These are the broad facts we have to face at the end of a generation of continuous and rapid territorial expansion, perpetual petty warfare, and ever-increasing military expenditure. In any sphere of human activity less affected by class interest and ignoble passion, the moral of the situation would be so plain to the simplest 1 8 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL mind that it could not be disputed. Com- mercial England, all her resources and advan- tages negatived by inherited burdens and a prodigal Imperial policy, is progressing, but more and more slowly. Germany, heavily weighted with military posts at home, but com- paratively free from the penalties of extensive Empire, is making rapid progress. The United States, with the smallest military and Imperial expenses of any Great Power, the greatest natural resources, and the fullest concentration upon industrial and commercial enterprise, is advancing by leaps and bounds toward the economic primacy of the world. The facts thus simply stated, the conclusion as to the future of British policy is irresistible. There is nothing for it but to return to the old path of peace, retrenchment, and reform. Ill OUR BEST CUSTOMERS IN spite of these difificulties, however, and Imperial sentiment notwithstanding, foreign customers are still, as they have always been, our best customers ; and so nearly stationary is the proportion of foreign to Imperial trade that it would seem fated to remain so. Taking im- ports first, we find that during the last half century those coming from foreign countries have never averaged less than 71 per cent, of the whole ; while in the last fifteen years of Imperial expansion, 77 per cent, of our imports have come from countries outside the Empire. The same thing is true of the exports of British merchandise, though not in quite the same degree. Whereas we get only a fifth of our imports from British Possessions, these Posses- sions take nearly a third of our exports. For instance, in 1901 British Possessions took 113 millions sterling worth of British exports, while 19 20 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL foreign countries took 234 millions sterling worth — almost exactly twice as much ; and this pro- portion has held good, with but slight fluctua- tions, for forty years. For forty years trade has gone two pounds under other flags for every one pound under our own. Percentages of Totals. Averages of Quinquennial Periods. 00 H 1 M , H {> M H ■a 00 H Imports from — Foreign Countries . British Possessions . Exports (British Pro- ducts) to — Foreign Countries . British Possessions . 71.2 28.8 66.6 334 76 24 72.4 27.6 78 22 74-4 25.6 77-9 22.1 66.9 33-1 76.5 23-5 65.5 34-5 77.1 22.9 65 35 77.1 22.9 66.5 33-S 78.3 21.7 66.1 33-9 Even among British Possessions, the oldest only — those which cost us little or nothing for defence and administration — are of first-rate commercial importance to us. Which are our chief customers .■* First, of course, comes India — taking well over a third of our exports to British Possessions. An interesting change has taken place in the next best purchaser. Till three or four years ago it was the United States. Our second best customer is now the country we have constantly antagonised, the country OUR BEST CUSTOMERS 21 whose commercial rivalry we feel so acutely — Germany. After Germany comes the Aus- tralian Federation and New Zealand (together), then the United States, and then France. Annual Averages. Million £. Exports (British Produce) to . 1885-89. 1890-94. 1895-99. British India .... 31 30 28 United States .... 28 26 20 Australasia .... 23 20 21 Germany l6 18 22 France 15 IS 15 Holland Total- 9 9 ^ Foreign Countries 147 156 158 British Possessions . 79 78 81 Annual A rerages. Million £. 18S5-89. 1890-94. 1895-99. United States .... 85 98 no France 39 44 51 British India .... 33 30 26 Australasia .... 24 30 ■ 31 Germany 25 26 27 Russia ...... Total- 20 21 21 Foreign Countries 293 322 355 British Possessions . 87 96 97 On the side of imports, and especially of food 22 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL supplies, our dependence on foreign countries is, of course, most strongly marked. When we turn, however, from the total volume of our oversea trade, and the condition of our home market, to our position in the outer world relatively to that of our chief rivals, there is less ground for satisfaction. An Imperialist writer, supporting Mr. Chamberlain, said the other day : "The fact is sun-clear that for British manu- factures the Continent is our declining market. Our developing market is the Colonial." This certainly looks as if it ought to be true — for, though we have to meet protective tariffs in the Colonies, as well as in foreign countries, identity of language, coinage, weights and measures, and trade habits ought to count for something, not to mention Imperial loyalty. Unfortunately, no such distinction can be drawn — partly, no doubt, because the advantages referred to are by no means uniform, the United States owning our langfuage, while Canada counts in dollars, and so on. At any rate, it appears that in the period 1894-99, German exports to India in- creased from 39 to 65 million marks, into Canada from 16 to 23 million marks, and into Austral- asia from 20 to 37 million marks ; while French exports to India rose from 13 to 20 million francs, and to Australasia from 2^ to 7^ million OUR BEST CUSTOMERS 23 francs ; and United States exports to Austral- asia rose from 8 to 24 million dollars, to British Africa from 4 to 15 million dollars, and to Hong Kong from 4 to 7 million dollars. These facts do indeed "give furiously to think." It may be taken for granted that the Colonies and Dependencies make these foreign purchases not to spite us, but because they represent some solid advantage. We hold already the great bulk of their trade. Even if by adopting the policy of the Chinese Wall we could secure the remainder, it could be but very poor compensation for the loss of our older foreign markets. A treaty of Customs Union which would throw open to us the richest market in the world, that of the United States, or even one which would give our manu- facturers an advantage in France or Germany, would be a different thing. But we are dealing with politicians whose object is a political, and not primarily a commercial or industrial one. It has already been shown that the mass of our Imperial trade does not grow more rapidly than our foreign. This may be further illus- trated with some explanatory detail, by the following table, ^ which shows the relative posi- * Based upon fuller tables given in the Board of Trade Memorandum. 24 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL tion the United States and Germany hold in our Colonial as well as in our foreign markets : — PERCENTAGE OF IMPORTS. To From United Kingdom. Germany. United States. I893-9S. 1898- 1900. 1893-95- 1898- 1900. 1893-95- 1898- 1900. European Russia Denmark . France Belgium . Italy ... Austria-Hungary Argentine . China Japan British India . Australasia Natal . . \ Cape Canada British West Indies . British Guiana . Germany . United States . 27 21 13 12 20 lO l8 33 22 21 13 14 20 9 36 17 21 28 12 12 37 12 7 39 29. 8 13 12 36 12 9 5 8 8 9 4 9 4 8 8 15 II 13 12 8 12 8 IS 72 41 72 8i 35 44 54 64 38 67 68 25 40 53 2 1-7 2.2 3-5 3-9 •9 2.2 3-2 3-1 3-7 4.1 I.O 1.8 4.8 4-5 45-9 30-7 25.8 1-5 6.9 9.0 10.9 59-3 34-8 28.3 13 20 12 18 II 12 II 17 These figures of the proportions of the im- port trade of various countries captured by the three chief manufacturing and exporting OUR BEST CUSTOMERS 25 nations give so clear a view of the whole field that additional comment is hardly necessary. It will be seen that, while the only considerable decline in our European sales is in Russia, the proportions of our Colonial trade show a general falling off. In India, where the fall amounts to 8 per cent., it cannot be attributed to German or American competition ; but in Australia, South Africa, the West Indies, and, above all, in Canada, the United States has made per- ceptible advances at our cost, and Germany has also made very slight progress. It will also be noticed that we hold only 7 per cent, less of American than of Canadian imports, and that we command practically as large a share of the Argentine as of the Australasian market. The last two lines of the table show that im- ports from Germany into the United States, and from the United States into Germany, have both increased in proportion to the total import trade of either country ; while both countries take a rather smaller proportion from the United Kingdom (in the case of the States it is also a smaller actual amount) than they used to do. The great American advances in Europe, it must be remembered, largely re- present trade in foodstuffs with which we do not compete. IV A SIGNIFICANT FAILURE IN CANADA WHY is our trade expansion checked in some places, while in others, though the actual amount increases, the proportion to that of our chief rivals does not? In par- ticular, why do they progress at our expense in our own Colonies ? Is it because German and American goods are better or cheaper than ours, or is this only a small and even a dubious element in the matter? To give a complete answer to these questions would require a very elaborate analysis ; and, if Mr. Chamberlain had been less urgent for a new electoral issue, it would provide a subject well worthy of the labours of a Royal Commission. Within the present limited space we can only hope to give pause to rash attempts to force the in- finitely delicate and complex organism of inter- national commerce into channels made by A SIGNIFICANT FAILURE IN CANADA 27 political history, and then to indicate some of the more important facts that will enable us to distinguish circumstances in which differential tariffs are more, from those in which they are less, dangerous or useless. For this purpose Canada, which has figured emphatically in the preceding summaries, as in all discussions of the subject, affords us a con- crete instance of very special value. Eighteenth- century lessons have lost much of their point for the average man of to-day, and the super- ficial observer is generally most struck by the bright side of American and European Protec- tionism. At last we have, however, a case of a British Imperial preferential tariff, the results of which may be weighed and measured without possibility of dispute. The Dominion was Mr, Chamberlain's trump card. In 1897 he persuaded the Colonial Premiers who met in London to consult their colleagues as to the possibility of establishing a general Colonial preferential tariff for British goods. "Nothing whatever has come of the resolutions up to the present time," the Colonial Secretary had to report at last year's Colonial Conference. But Canada has successively reduced her old tariff in favour of British goods, the first reduction of 12^ per cent, in 28 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL 1897 being increased to 25 per cent, in 1898, and 33^ per cent, in 1900. The first pre- ferential rate was extended to other countries which dealt with Canada as liberally as she did with them ; the later increases of the preference are only enjoyed by the United Kingdom and by certain British Colonies and Dependencies. Mr. Chamberlain himself described the results at the Colonial Conference last year as "alto- gether disappointing." They may be shortly set forth in two forms, thus — INCREASE OF CANADIAN IMPORTS (1897-1901). Non-Preferential Imports . Free Imports British Empire Preferential Imports . Total Canadian Imports . United Kingdom Preferential Imports United Kingdom Non - Preferential Imports Total United Kingdom Imports Total British Empire Imports . Total Foreign Imports BRITISH PROPORTION OF CANADIAN IMPORTS. 1886-1897 (before Preference) . 40^ to 28| per cent. 1898-1900 (25 per cent. Preference) . 24J „ 1901 (33^ per cent. Preference) . 23^ „ Million £. Per cent. 6i 62 6i 67 2 55 ^^\ 62 If li ... 2f 46 3 48 II 69 A SIGNIFICANT FAILURE IN CANADA 29 It is, perhaps, too soon to conclude — the more preference the less trade. But Mr. Chamberlain may well be "disappointed." To the man in the street, uninstructed as to the character and conditions of international commerce, it may appear strange that we should be actually losing ground in a market where we have a 33^ per cent, tariff prefer- ence. To those who have studied the facts, even superficially, there is no mystery what- ever about the Canadian episode. With the exception of the factor upon which we have laid stress — the, disadvantage at which we stand in competition with the United States by reason of our military and other Imperial burdens — the main causes of this failure are clearly explained in Mr. Chamberlain's own special Blue Book, the report of last year's Colonial Conference.^ They may be summed up under two heads: (i) Natural Conditions; (2) Colonial Protectionism. The largest increases in recent Canadian imports have been in iron and steel goods, grain and breadstuffs, coal, meat and dairy produce, wood, and cotton. These are the things the Dominion wanted most, and it will be seen at once that they are not all things we 1 Cd. 1299, PP- 85-87, etc. 30 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL are well prepared to supply. Moreover, as the author of the Board of Trade Memorandum, to which reference has been given, says : " We should not expect to find any material effect exerted by the preferential tarijEf in the case of heavy and bulky goods, in which freight bears a high proportion to total value ; and it is precisely in these classes of goods that the main increase of Canadian imports has recently taken place. It is also in these classes of goods, e.g. coal, grain, raw cotton, timber, iroii and steel, and heavy manufactures thereof, such as bridges, girders, rails, engines, etc., that the United States, by geographical contiguity, as well as by wealth of natural resources, is to a large extent beyond reach of any competi- tion from the United Kingdom in the Canadian market, even if aided by a much greater preference than that now accorded." A plainer warning than this from the permanent officials of the Board of Trade could not be desired. Two illustrations are added : In the case of bituminous coal, it appears, the preference would only amount to about lod. per ton ; and in the case of pig-iron to less than 4s. per ton, " both small amounts compared with cost of freight." Now the groups of articles we have named account for seven out of the A SIGNIFICANT FAILURE IN CANADA 31 ten millions sterling by which Canadian imports from the United States increased between 1897 and 1 90 1, and for eight out of the fourteen and a half millions by which the total imports increased. So much for the natural advantages of the neighbouring Republic as a factor. Again, while the Canadian Government may be willing to let the British trader off in some cases with a lighter toll than the utter foreigner, there is something it is more anxious about than the condition of British trade, namely, the advance of Canadian manufactures. For these, raw cotton, for instance, is needed ; but there can be little comfort for us in a preference of one-third on our cotton fabrics, while United States raw cotton goes in free of duty. This difficulty will naturally increase as Canadian industries grow ; and the institution of iron and steel and other bounties indicates how little inclination the manufacturers of the Colony have toward what they, along with Mr. Cham- berlain, may like to call the "old shibboleths," the " economic pedantry," of Free Trade. As the Board of Trade puts it (and again I venture to beg Mr. Chamberlain to read his own Blue Books) : "It must also be remembered in considering the figures that Canadian policy 32 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL remains Protectionist in spite of the preference to British goods, and that the Canadian tariff as a rule discourages the importation of manu- factured goods more than that of raw materials. Although, therefore, British, goods enjoy a preference compared with the same goods im- ported from other countries, the average ad valorem rate of duty on British imports, taken as a whole, is still higher than the average duty levied on all imports, and much higher than the average duty levied on imports from the United States." In fact. Customs duties reckoned upon the whole amount of British imports into the Dominion amounted in 1901 to 18 per cent, of the value of those imports ; while on Ameri- can imports they amounted to only 12 per cent. Thus we have the odd result that under a much-lauded Imperial preferential tariff poor old Mother Country contributes nearly two- thirds as much as the United States to Canadian revenue, though she sells less than two-fifths as much merchandise ! The explanation of this apparent anomaly lies in the fact already re- vealed — American imports are let in free or are taxed more lightly because they are more needed than our manufactured articles, which the Dominion wants to produce at home. Even A SIGNIFICANT FAILURE IN CANADA 33 in regard to such of these articles as are sub- stantially aided by the tariff and not greatly handicapped by freight charges, the preferential scale has at best only retarded a previous decline. Textile fabrics and yarns form two- thirds of British exports to Canada subject to the special tariff (3^ millions sterling) ; and in the last five years they have hardly kept pace with similar imports from other sources not enjoying preferential treatment. This is mainly due to the fact that France, Japan, and Germany are beating us in silk goods. If, then; we had disposed of foreign com- petitors altogether — the United States and the bright young kingdom which is knocking at the Pacific doorway of the Dominion, as well as Germany and France — if we had a path clear of rivals, there would still be a barrier against us as effective as those we meet with in the Old World, in the shape of a highly Protectionist tariff. And that Canada, the brave pioneer of the preferential tariff policy, is a bad offender in this respect is suggested by the fact that she takes of our cotton and woollen stuffs, per head of her population, only from a fifth to a third as much as the Australian Colonies ; While of general British imports per head she takes 3 34 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL only one-quarter as much as Victoria, one-fifth as much as New South Wales, and one-sixth as much as New Zealand. The "Canadian Memorandum" appended to the Colonial Conference Blue Book admits these facts, and makes a triple plea regarding them. In the first place, " Great Britain can- not hope to compete in the Canadian market to any appreciable extent in the raw materials we require," which, on the other hand, "are largely produced in the United States." In the second place, "it may be stated that the textile industries, particularly woollens and cottons, are very well established in Canada, and made rapid strides in the last decade. The manufacturers naturally expect a share of the home market, and as their establishments develop they correspondingly look for a larger share. ... It might be noted that the Canadian Government has been attacked by Canadian manufacturers on the ground that the prefer- ence is seriously interfering with their trade." And in the third place, " referring to the argu- ment that the consumption of British textiles and British goods generally in Australia and New Zealand is much higher than in Canada, it is submitted that this is largely due to. the fact that the rnianufacturing industries are more A SIGNIFICANT FAILURE IN CANADA 35 highly developed in Canada than in the Colonies stated." In other words, the trouble will increase and not diminish as time goes on ; and the other Colonies are likely to follow suit when they reach the same stage of industrial development ! England is paying heavily for the misplaced eloquence and ingenuity of those who like to describe Free Trade as an "old shibboleth." V MR. CHAMBERLAIN'S DISCOURAGE- MENTS, AND A "VOLTE FACE " IN the face of facts we have recited, Mr. Chamberlain's little Colonial Office party last year (at which, it should be remembered, Cape Colony and the late Republics, as well as India and the Crown Colonies, were not represented) voted five resolutions on the sub- ject of Imperial Preferential Trade. The first, ignoring experience, endorsed the principle. The second declared that " it is not practicable to adopt a general system of Free Trade as between the Mother Country and the British Dominions beyond the Seas." In other words, the Colonial Premiers forced Mr. Chamberlain to recognise the Protectionism of the small parts of the Empire which they represent as an irremovable obstacle to British industrial and mercantile progress. The third resolution counselled the other Colonies to give preferen- 36 CHAMBERLAIN'S DISCOURAGEMENTS 37 tial treatment to the United Kingdom ; and the fourth urged that the United Kingdom should return the compliment. Finally, the Premiers undertook to recommend their re- spective Governments to adopt preferential tariffs. So far this last resolution has had no sub- stantial result save that the Canadian Govern- ment has promised to still further increase the preferential scale if the United Kingdom will in return give tariff preference to Canadian products. Both through the High Commis- sioner and in direct communication with British Ministers, the Canadian Government have from the first distinctly claimed that, in consideration of the existing preference, " Canadian food pro- ducts should be exempted in the United King- dom from the duties recently imposed " ; they make such a measure a definite condition of any further Canadian favours, and even threaten to withdraw the existing advantage if compen- sation be not given. It was at this interesting point that the Free Trade party in the Cabinet decided to put its foot down. Mr. Chamber- lain explained to his constituents on 15th May last that he would personally have responded to the Canadian invitation as "a fair offer, a generous offer," but that, speaking for the 38 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL Government as a whole, he had to reject it, on the ground that "it is contrary to the established fiscal system of this country, and that we hold ourselves bound to keep an open market for all the world, even if they close their markets to us." On the same day Mr. Balfour replied to Mr. Chaplin's deputation that if "a trifling duty upon food imports" was required to be imposed by way of Imperial preference, or as a measure of "fiscal war," the demand must come "not from the repre- sentatives of one industry, or of two industries — it must come from the heart and conscience and the intellect of the great body and mass of the people," an eminently statesmanlike position. The withdrawal of the corn duty thus saved us from an administrative "deal" or a decision forced by an appeal to party loyalty. And if it saves England from higher prices and from a tariff struggle with the United States and Russia, it also saves India, Australia, and New Zealand, which would have suffered, ' along with these and other foreign countries, in pro- portion as Canada gained. The question is now brought out of the holes and corners 6f Whitehall into open daylight. One could wish, however, that the Birmingham audience to CHAMBERLAIN'S DISCOURAGEMENTS 39 which Mr. Chamberlain commended a prefer- ential tariff as the sovereign cure for our Im- perial ills had been able to read the text of the sound lecture which he read the Colonial Premiers a few months ago on the " disappoint- ing and discouraging " character of the Canadian experiment. Where, indeed, as he said, would these prosperous children of ours be if, like Greece and Holland, and other of the smaller nations, they had to keep their own armies and navies and higher administrative and diplo- matic services? Apart from that major con- sideration, — a recompense equal to many fiscal favours, — " so long a,s a preferential tariff, even a munificent preference, is still sufficiently pro- tective to exclude us altogether, or nearly so, from your markets, it is no satisfaction to us that you have imposed even greater disability upon the same goods if they come from foreign markets, especially if the articles in which foreigners are interested come in under more favourable conditions." These, at least, are words that should weigh in the present appeal to the mind of "the nation, Mr. Chamberlain's record on this question is, indeed, not a happy one. It is seven years since his first definite advocacy of a return of England to a long tariff and the erection of 40 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL a ring-fence about the Empire. Preferential trade arrangements had been favoured at an Inter-Colonial Conference in Ottawa in June and July 1894; and in March 1896 the Canadian House of Commons adopted a pro- position declaring it to be advisable that "a small duty (irrespective of any existing tariff) be levied by each member of the Empire against foreign products imported by them, and . that the proceeds from such duties be devoted to purposes of Imperial intercommuni- cation and defence." Speaking to the Canada Club in London in the last-named month on the strength of these inspiring resolutions, Mr. Chamberlain said that the problem of closer Imperial union " can be most hopefully ap- proached, in the first place, from its commercial side," and that "a true ZoUverein for the Empire, a Free Trade established throughout the Empire, although it would involve the imposition of duties against foreign countries, and would be in that respect a derogation from the high principles of Free Trade, and from the practice of the United Kingdom up to the present time, would still be a proper subject for discussion, and might probably lead to a satisfactory arrangement if the Colonies on their part were willing to consider it." CHAMBERLAIN'S DISCOURAGEMENTS 41 In June 1896 Mr. Chamberlain set himself openly at the head of this heretical movement, on the occasion of the third Conference of home and Colonial Chambers of Commerce in London. With characteristic impetuosity, he then described "commercial union" as "a question which dominates all other Imperial interests, to which everything else is second- ary," " the main and decisive step towards the realisation of the most inspiring idea that has ever entered into the minds of British states- men." Other subjects before the Conference, such as improvement of communications and postal facilities, and greater uniformity of commercial law, were, he said, "dwarfed to insignificance" by this question — an opinion which sounds curiously now that the Govern- ment has revived it after seven years of apparent indifference. The fate of the Colonial Minister on that occasion was not a happy one ; for, thirty hours after he had propounded it, the dominant question and most inspiring idea of his ideal statesman had been unanimously thrown over by a gathering which included Colonial Protectionists, as well as the English Free Traders whose active support Mr. Chamberlain had postulated as the initial condition of success. The most the 42 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL Imperial Protectionists could secure was an appeal to the British Government to "promote consideration" of the question by summoning an Imperial Conference. The reports of the Conference are particu- larly instructive at the present moment. In opening it, Mr. Chamberlain offered a three- fold division of the possible schemes of com- mercial union, "three lines of progress which have been suggested or can be suggested to accomplish this great object." These were — {a) "Adoption of Free Trade by the Pro- tectionist Colonies." This, he admitted, might be the best solution ; but the Colonies would not adopt it. Moreover, this "would be in the direction of a cosmopolitan union, but would offer no particular advantage to the trade of the Empire as such." {d) " That, while the Colonies should be left absolutely free to impose what protective duties they please both on foreign countries and British produce, they should be required to make a small discrimination in favour of British trade, in return for which we should be expected to change our whole system and should impose duties on food and raw material." Of this plan, which he described as " the very reverse, in spirit at any rate," of CHAMBERLAIN'S DISCOURAGEMENTS 43 the last proposal, Mr. Chamberlain went on to say : '^ My own opinion is that there is not the slightest chance that in any reasonable time this country y or the Parliament of this country, would adopt so one-sided an agreement. (Cheers.) The foreign trade of this country is so large, and the foreign trade of the Colonies is com- paratively so sitiall, that a small preference given to us upon that foreign trade by the Colonies would m.ake so small a difference — be so slight a benefit to the total volume of our trade — that I do not believe the working classes of this country would consent to m,ake such a revolu- tionary change for what they would think so infinitesimal a gain. Thus we have only arrived at a deadlock in the question. We have a proposal by British Free Traders thus rejected by the Colonies, and we have a pro- posal by the Colonial Protectionists which is rejected by Great Britain." {c) " The creation of a Zollverein or Customs Union, which would establish at once practically Free Trade throughout the British Empire, and would leave the separate contracting parties free to make their own arrangements with regard to duties upon foreign goods ; except that this is an essential 44 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL condition of the proposal — that Great Britain shall consent to replace moderate duties upon certain articles of large production in the Colonies. The articles upon which such .duties should be levied coming from abroad would be corn, meat, wool, sugar, and other articles of enormous consumption in this country and largely produced in the Colonies, and which might, under such an arrangement, be wholly produced in the Colonies and by British labour." This last plan, the essence of which is that the Colonies should " cease to place pro- tective duties upon any products of British labour," he described as the principle which would be the strongest bond of union between the various parts of the British race, "the greatest advance Free Trade has made since it was advocated by Mr, Cobden," which "must be adopted if any progress is to be made at all," and which, if adopted by the Colonies, " would not be met by a blank refusal by the people of this country." In brief, the alternatives were — (a) Cosmopolitan Free Trade. (d) Inter- Imperial Preferential Trade, Col- onial Protection continuing. (c) Absolute Inter- Imperial Free Trade and Protection against foreign countries only. CHAMBERLAIN'S DISCOURAGEMENTS 45 And of these he declared that the third was the only possible plan. At the Conference of 1896 it came forward in the form of a proposi- tion forwarded by the Toronto Board of Trade, The debate showed a complete lack of unan- imity, and the Toronto proposition — opposed both by the absolute Free Traders and the Preferential tariff party — had to be withdrawn, in favour of a mild recommendation of further consideration of the problem. We have already noticed the fact that at the Conference of Colonial Premiers last year Inter- Imperial Free Trade was again dismissed as "not practicable." "The discussion revealed a strong feeling amongst the Prime Ministers in favour of making some definite advance towards establishing closer trade relations be- tween the Mother Country and the Colonies. But the circumstances in the different Colonies differed so widely that it was apparent that no arrangement applicable to all could be devised."* Not only did the Conference reject the pre- scription of which Mr. Chamberlain seven years ago said that it " must be adopted if any pror gress is to be made at all " ; not only did it fall back upon the plan of preferential trade as to which he then said, "there is not the 1 Colonial Conference Blue Book, p. 35. 46 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL slightest chance that in any reasonable time this country, or the Parliament of this country, would adopt so one-sided an agreement," but the Colonial Secretary himself adopted the same position, subject only to a platonic de- fence of complete Inter- Imperial Free Trade as the ultimate ideal. The passage in which this volte face is recorded deserves quotation : " What we desire, what H^is Majesty's Government has publicly stated to be the object for which they would most gladly strive, is a free interchange. If you are unable to accept that as a principle, then I ask you how far can you approach to it ? . . . Our first object then, as I say, is Free Trade within the Empire. We feel confident — we think that it is a matter which demands no evidence or proof — that if such a result were feasible it would enormously increase our inter- Imperial trade ; that it would hasten the development of our Colonies ; that it would fill up the spare places in your lands with an active, intelligent, and industrious, and above all, a British, popu- lation ; that it would make the Mother Country entirely independent of foreign food and raw material. But when I speak of Free Trade it must be understood that I do not mean by that the total abolition of Customs duties as between CHAMBERLAIN'S DISCOURAGEMENTS 47 different parts of the Empire. I recognise fully the exigencies of all new v countries, and especially of our self-governing Colonies. I see that your revenue must always, probably, and certainly for a long while to come, depend chiefly upon indirect taxation. Even if public opinion were to justify you in levying direct taxation, the cost of collecting it in countries sparsely populated might be so large as to make it impossible. But in my mind, whenever Customs duties are balanced by Excise duties, or whenever they are levied on articles which are not produced at home, the enforcement of such duties is no derogation whatever from the principles of Free Trade as I understand it. If, then, even with this limita- tion, which is a very important one, which would leave it open to all Colonies to collect their revenues by Customs duties and indirect taxation, even if the proposal were accepted with that limitation, I think it would be im- possible to overestimate the mutual advantage which would be derived from it." ^ The abandonment of the position taken up in 1896 — a position the good influence of which at the time was very evident — is the strongest testimony to the growing strength of, Colonial ^ Blue Book, p. 6. 48 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL Protectionism. It may be suggested, however, that, whether cosmopolitan Free Trade and even Inter- Imperial Free Trade have or have not now become impossible ideals, no good what- ever can result frofti blinking plain facts and using such a phrase as "free trade" in two quite opposite senses. In those pre- Federation days. Free Trade still had its conspicuous spokesmen in Australia, and even in Canada. One utterance of the time is so noteworthy as an exposure of Imperial Protectionism that we have recalled it from its forgotten resting-place. The Hon. G. H. Reid, then Prime Minister of New South Wales, said ; ^ " I consider that the stress of foreign coiiipeti- tion is liable to throw the British Government and the British pebple into very dangerous devices. It seems to me that foreign com- petition can only be met in a way to maintain the strength of Great Britain by a further development of mercantile genius, of taste and ability, for which there is room in England, and by all the thousand and one devices which are well known to an enterprising English manu- facturer or merchant. But the moment you are * Interviewed by Mr. Sydney Hallifax, Daily Ileitis, ijth June 1897. CHAMBERLAIN'S DISCOURAGEMENTS 49 thrown into schemes of what is called Pro- tection, you admit that the battle is going against you, and you are practically beaten. You must meet competition by superior com- petition. You must meet merit by superior merit. That has been the maxim of British greatness and development up to the present time ; and the new method of meeting it by strategy, and by surrender, and by barricade, seems to me practically an admission that the time has come for the decadence of Great Britain. ... I do not think Mr. Chamberlain's proposals are practicable. . . . Further, as I have already said . . .in my opinion the British Empire is better maintained by its present policy of Free Trade, even with enemies, than it could be in any other way. The British Empire would have been an intolerable aggression upon the rights of other nations but for her marvellously magnanimous trading policy, which has given the world an equal share in the benefits of the British Empire, and which has specially tended to create enormous business interests in favour of peace with Great Britain, whatever other country is fought. I feel that any attempt on the part of England to change her policy, instead of strengthening the Empire, will 50 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL supply many new motives to jealous hostile nations for hostilities. ... If Canada prefers England to France or even America, well, it is their own independent act, for which England is not responsible, and the effect is not direct or serious. But let England govern her policy by similar considerations — let her ports be less free to the commerce of other nations than they are to-day, and I feel sure the already strong jealousy of England and the dislike of her overpowering commercial supremacy would develop into a far more dangerous phase, that of active hostility." Mr. (afterwards Sir) Wilfrid Laui-ier said about the same time : " Suppose England did such a thing and abandoned her Free Trade record. She would inevitably curtail the purchasing power of her people. And do you not think we should suffer from that, we who alone have natural resources enough to feed your millions from our fertile lands. I have too great a belief in English common sense to think they will do any such thing. What we have done in the way of tariff preferences to England, we have, as I said, done out of gratitude to England, and not because we want her to enter upon the path of Protection. . . . We know that buying more goods from Eng- CHAMBERLAIN'S DISCOURAGEMENTS 51 land, she will buy more from us and so develop trade, and the moment trade is developed, Canada is benefited." Free Trade, like "gratitude," is now less conspicuous, as an element in Colonial claims, than it was seven years ago. The movement lapsed for six years while Mr. Chamberlain turned to the assistance of the Rand mine- owners and the West Indian sugar planters ; but the Protectionist agitation was furtively con- tinued. The Australian Commonwealth came into existence ; and the comparatively slow growth of our purchases from Canada led to a rising demand in the Dominion for preference in the British market in return for the prefer- ence already given to certain British goods by the Colony. Before leaving home to take part in last year's Colonial Office Conference, Sir Wilfrid Laurier^ hailed the duty on wheat and flour then just imposed in the United Kingdom as "a step which would make it possible to obtain preference for Canadian goods." Sir Michael Hicks - Beach vigorously combated this suggestion in the House of Commons, declaring that the duty was imposed for revenue purposes only, and must not be regarded as a lever for Imperial preferences. Despite Mr. I Speech in Dominion House of Commons, I2th May 190Z. 52 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL Chamberlain's open scorn for the "antiquated methods," the "economic pedantry," the "old shibboleths"^ of the Free Trade school, Sir Michael's successor, Mr. Ritchie, removed the duty in framing this year's Budget ; the Prime Minister, in his very significant reply to Mr. Chaplin's deputation, vindicated this action ; and it was afterwards endorsed by an over- whelming majority in the House of Commons. This strong stand of the Free Trade sec- tion of the Cabinet has brought the question to a decisive issue with Mr. Chamberlain's challenging advocacy of a new system of Imperial tariffs on the one hand, and Mr. Balfour's appeal to "the conscience and in- tellect of the body of the people" on the other. * Speech at Birmingham, i6th May 1902. VI A SCHEME OF PREFERENTIAL TRADE EXAMINED NOW that the idea of Inter- Imperial Free Trade — a ZoUverein, properly so-called — is disposed of, we can turn to a somewhat more detailed examination of the alternative of Inter- Imperial Preferential tariffs. So far, we have considered this principle in its general aspects, with the aid of the example of the Canadian special tariff, by way of warning as to the surprises that lie in the path of preferential treatment. As Mr. Cham- berlain has not yet descended to details, we cannot do much more ; but guidance as to the lines a scheme of Imperial Protection would take are not altogether wanting. Projects were rather plentiful in 1896, and three of the best of them lie before us. Of these, we may fairly take as the most authoritative the essay of Mr. J. G. Colmer, C.M.G., an old S3 54 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL Canadian civil servant, a prominent figure in the 1896 Conference, and a writer of parts on his side of the question, an essay to which the late Lord Playfair and the present Duke of Argyle (then Marquis of Lome) awarded the " Statist " prize of ;^500.^ We may fairly take Mr. Colmer as a type, the more so as the pivot of his scheme, as of Mr. Chamber- lain's speeches, and every other serious plan, is the establishment of import duties in this country against foreign foodstuffs and raw materials. Mr. Colmer's main proposal can be very briefly stated. Great Britain is to throw her traditions and principles to the winds, and to put duties of about 3 per cent, on the foreign imports of eighteen articles, or groups of articles, for the encouragement of Imperial producers.^ A half of these articles (including cattle, meat, cheese, butter, wheat, flour, and ^ Published as a Supplement to that Journal on and May 1896. Mr. R. S. Ashton's essay advocating an absolutely Free Trade Union, to which a similar prize was awarded, was published a week later. ' A cruder scheme, providing for the imposition in every part of the Empire of special duties of from 5 to 10 per cent, on foreign goods, the proceeds to be devoted to Imperial defence, has since been advocated in Canada and England by Lieut.- Col. Denison, President of the Canadian Branch of the British Empire League. PREFERENTIAL TRADE EXAMINED 55 sugar) are foodstuffs ; of the remainder several are important raw materials, wool, hemp, and leather, to wit. In the case of wheat the general 3 per cent, is not considered enough. Mr. Colmer accordingly raises the duty to 5 per cent, ad val. Now, our wheat imports came, in 1902, to the extent of about three- quarters from foreign countries, chiefly the United States and Argentina, the remainder — about 22 million cwt. — from Canada, Australia, and India. Lest foreign flour should be sent in place of the penalised wheat, a like duty on flour must follow. But, counting wheat and flour together, the Colonies and India send us only one-fifth of our total imports, the present value of which is about ;^36,ooo,ooo a year. As these Imperial supplies cannot be suddenly multiplied five-fold, the immediate effect of the duty must be to put up the price of the whole of our most indispensable food imports by the amount of the duty — ;^ 1,800, 000 a year — and to raise correspondingly the price of native pro- duce. The later results depend upon factors too numerous and complex to be here discussed. The Indian wheat and flour trade with this country is governed in the main by meteoro- logical conditions, and has varied in the last decade all the way from six thousand to eight 56 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL million cwt. a year. It may, therefore, be put outside the question for the present. We may also leave Argentina to offset Australasia, and, for purposes of illustration, ask simply how a 5 per cent, preference will operate as between Canada and the United States. At present our best foreign customer sends us eight times as much corn and flour as our premier Colony. Is it imaginable that 5 per cent, will destroy this superiority, or is 5 per cent, only the thin end of the wedge for 10 per cent., and 10 per cent, for 20 per cent., in accordance with all Protectionist precedent ? The rise of price to the British consumer at the outset is certain, because the foreign supplies are indispensable. It is certain that the American wheat rings would not prove easy victims ; and retaliation against both Colony and Mother Country would ensue. Moreover, there would be no stimulus to Canadian and British agriculture unless the rise of price continued. The probability is, therefore, that it would be maintained. Colonial and native corn-growers making larger profit, but obtaining no larger share of the trade, and the duty, with costs, coming out of the British consumer's pocket. While in these conclusions there is unavoid- ably an element of speculation, there is no PREFERENTIAL TRADE EXAMINED 57 uncertainty at all about the main penalties of the policy of tariff preference as between the two great American competitors for the British market. Exports ultimately depend upon im- ports, and it is impossible to exclude the latter without damaging the former, especially in the case of a State so well practised as the United States in the arts of protection and retaliation. Now, hard pressed as it is, our export trade with the United States amounted in 1901 to over 37^ million pounds sterling, while our exports to the Dominion amounted to only 9^ millions. It has already been shown that the difficulty we have to meet is essentially the same in both countries — high protection of native manufactures — and that there is no more chance of overcoming that difficulty, even by tariff bargaining, in the case of Canada than in that of the States. Why we should attempt for the Canadian what we have steadily refused to the farmer of our own depopulated counties, Mr. Chamberlain has not yet offered to explain. When this experiment in Protectionism is seen to involve a breach of friendly relations with the greatest of our foreign customers, a Power as closely allied to us, save in political unity, as Canada herself, to the Idss of anything up to 37 millions worth of trade, the perilous S8 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL character of the Protectionist movement is plainly seen. The preferential corn duty whose operation we have discussed is favoured by Mr. Chamber- lain. He admits that it means dearer food, but promises higher wages in compensation, without explaining how we are to restrict markets and raise wages at the same time. However, on the other hand, Mr. Chamber- lain deprecates taxing raw materials. There is no logic in this position, for food is the chief of raw materials — the raw material of labour. Every other advocate of Imperial Protectionism has included both kinds of imports in his scheme. We may quote one other instance from Mr. Colmer by way of illustrating a different sort of mischief that would result. Five-sixths of our wool supplies already come from within the Empire (540 out of 673 million lbs. in 1902). If a preferential duty here had any result, it would be to give the Colonies a complete monopoly, and so to raise prices considerably. Our textile industries would thus be doubly injured ; for while prices were rising in this country, the foreign wool which we reject would inevitably go to swell and cheapen the supplies of our manufacturing rivals. Again, we get six times as much hemp PREFERENTIAL TRADE EXAMINED 59 from foreign countries as from within the Empire. In some other items — skins and furs, gutta-percha, jute, gums, tin, mica, plumbago, and shells — the Imperial supplies already pre- ponderate in this country, and a preferential duty would seem to be a gratuitous annoyance to foreign traders, for no better purpose than the establishment of dangerous monopolies. Some articles are evidently thrown in by Mr. Colmer as a bribe to certain Colonies — as seal- skin for Newfoundland. In all, the Colonial pro- ducts to be protected constitute about one-third of the supplies of these articles (at the date of Mr. Colmer 's essay, 45 millions sterling to 85^ millions sterling from foreign countries). As to how long it would take for the new supplies to replace the old, not even a guess is hazarded. Mr. Colmer estimated the amount of duty produced at ;^2, 700,000, of which 2^ millions sterling came from foodstuffs. On the other hand, he would reduce existing duties on Colonial cocoa, tea, and tobacco, — a loss of two millions sterling, — ^leaving only jCyoo,ooo net gain of Customs revenue, in compensation for an addition to prices in some of the prime necessities of life which must evidently be equal to at least 3 or 5 per cent, on the 130 millions sterling of foreign and Colonial 6o THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL imports of the articles affected, and an equiv- alent rise in the corresponding native supplies, where there are any. And this, Mr. Colmer is careful to point out, is only a beginning. As to the quid pro quo, he is halting and obscure: "this part of the scheme needs to be approached with delicacy," Ultimately, he constructs a plan of preferential treatment of the Mother Country by raising Colonial import duties on foreign goods by an amount equal to a tax of 2 per cent, on the public revenue of the Colony, minus land, railways, and defence moneys. How much this might benefit the United Kingdom he does not say ; but we are told that ;^725,ooo of fresh Customs revenue (;^i 30,000 of it in India) would be produced. So it would, if the foreigner continued to hold his ground, in which case Great Britain would gain no new trade, and the Colonial consumer would have to pay in higher prices. If, on the other hand, we gained trade at the expense of the foreigner, it would still be at the expense of the Colonial consumer, and there would be no additional Customs revenue. Such are the lesser dilemmas of the Imperial Protectionists, However, allow Mr, Colmer the benefit of his hypothetical three-quarters of a million, which he adds to the ^700,000 supposed to be PREFERENTIAL TRADE EXAMINED 6i gained in the United Kingdom (subject to the same awkward predicament), making a sum of nearly a million and a half to be frittered away as a new " Imperial Defence Fund." There is still a trifling addition to the demands of this Colonial Oliver Twist. Not only does he agree with the late Sir Charles Tupper that "the Colonies would never consent to be taxed " in support of the Imperial Navy ; he says there is dissatisfaction even over the microscopic Australian contributions, and so he suggests that these and the Indian payments of ;^ 1 00,000 for the four guardships should be forthwith cancelled. These meagre results are, in any case, in striking contrast with Mr. Chamberlain's recent promises of booming trade and rising wages. The Colonial Secretary talks of old age pensions where Mr. Colmer's utmost hope was to get a trifling contribution toward military and naval expenditure. The most authoritative estimate of the cost of old-age pensions — that of Mr. Charles Booth — requires new revenue amounting to twenty millions sterling a year. Mr. Chamberlain's preferential tariff has there- fore to be seven times as large as Mr. Colmer's ; or, in other words, it would have to amount to one-fifth of the total value of the goods 62 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL received from Imperial sources! The thing is, of course, simply unthinkable ; but if, for a moment, we may play with so wild a hypo- thesis, it will be sufficient to point out that such a tariff would result not in preference, but in virtual prohibition, so that the wonderful new revenue would speedily disappear, and the wonderful pensions along with it. VII FOOD AND RAW MATERIAL: THE CRUX OF THE QUESTION T N our opening chapters we have noted some J- of the broad facts of British oversea commerce in its double relation — {a) with the foreign competitors who — by reason of larger population, greater natural resources or geographical advantage, lighter Imperial bur- dens, and completer concentration upon the arts of peace — are rapidly increasing their exports, but who are still. Protection notwith- standing, our best customers ; and (d) with British possessions, some of which also are making rapid progress, thanks to the possession of virgin soil, the rapid growth of population, the enjoyment of democratic institutions, free- dom from military burdens, the support of British credit, the demand for their produce in the United Kingdom and the United States, and the advantage of England to them as a 63 64 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL free port and depot. The general statistics were seen to indicate that the growth of manu- facturing power was inevitable alike in foreign countries and in the self-governing Colonies, and that the idea of "pegging out claims" in the tropics by way of compensation is already an exploded delusion. At the same time, it was observed that our trade with foreign countries was more than maintained in volume under Free Trade, though, naturally, the pro- portion of increase is smaller than with the rivals who are enjoying the first flush of their economic expansion ; and that the eleven or twelve millions of Colonists with whom a pre- ferential arrangement is proposed could not possibly offer us, in the shape either of a market or a base of supplies, compensation for the world-wide territories where we now, even at the worst, enjoy preferential treatment under our '' most favoured nation " clauses. The episode of the Canadian Imperial tariff enabled us to regard the problem both from the Colonial and the British points of view ; and here we saw that the Colonies, whatever some of their orators may say, behave very much like mere foreigners, effectively protect- ing their rising manufactures and buying what they want, like other sane folk, where they can FOOD AND RAW MATERIAL 65 get it most cheaply, which is often not in these islands. Thus, in spite of the heavy tariff advantage, we now hold only about 24 per cent, of the Canadian market, where seventeen years ago we held over 40 per cent. To express "disappointment" at this result is very much like expressing disappointment when, at an inconvenient moment, water rises to its own level. Having recalled a happy moment when Mr. Chamberlain himself admitted these facts, we passed on to an examination, mainly from the British point of view, of a detailed scheme of Imperial Preference, drawn up with some show of authority on the last occasion when the subject was prominently before the country. This project gave us the advantage of a series of concrete illustrations ; and it became evident, as regards some of our most important food- stuffs and raw materials, that a rise of prices on the whole supplies would result from the proposed differential tax of 3 or 5 per cent. ; that the continuance of the foreign supplies is a condition of getting any increment of revenue for domestic purposes in this country ; and that retaliation by some of the chief purchasers of our exports would inevitably follow, so that we should sell less while we were paying more for our purchases. S 66 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL This brings us to a second method of analysis of our oversea trade, no less im- portant than the discrimination already made according to the buying and selling countries concerned — an analysis according to the char- acter of the commodities. The main facts are set forth as simply as possible in the second and third Tables of Appendix I. Table II. shows that while the great body of our exports consists of manufactured articles, these figure in our imports, roughly speaking, only in the ratio of i part to 2 of raw and other materials of manufacture, and 2 J of foodstuffs. It is to be regretted that the Customs and Board of Trade do not give us a clear and complete list of "raw materials"; but the total of 185 millions sterling may be taken as approxi- mately accurate, for while some items under "metals, oils, chemicals, dye-stuffs, etc.," should not be included, some articles described as " manufactured " are really necessary materials for further manufacturing processes. To this major fact, that nearly four-fifths of our imports consist of food and material of manufacture, one must return again and again. For these are not, to any great extent, articles of luxury, or articles we can afford to submit to the penalty of a new series of Anti- Bounty FOOD AND RAW MATERIAL 6j Conventions ; they are things we must have if we are to continue to be a manufacturing nation, and must get as cheaply as possible if we are to produce the corresponding manu- factures so as to undersell our foreign com- petitors. They are the sort of things — absolute necessaries not produced at home — which the most extreme Protectionist countries admit freely or under minimum duties. Yet these are the only things we can tax to oblige our Colonial friends. Let us now see, by a wide review of the latest statistics, how the proposed preferential tariff would work out. In one important respect the air has been cleared by recent declarations : the two chief members of the present Cabinet, one of them the leader in the policy of Imperial Protection, have declared that raw materials of manufacture cannot be taxed. In the House of Commons debate on 28th May, Mr. Balfour said : " / cannot imagine that it would be wise in any circumstances to put a tax on the raw material on which our manufactures depend ; and I do not know that such a tax has ever been put forward by anybody." Mr. Chamberlain, speaking later on the same day, accepted this statement, but with a very significant and characteristic qualification. 68 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL Omitting some replies to interruptions, his refer- ence was as follows : — " It does not require much acumen to see what are the general lines which any arrange- ment of this kind must follow. . . . It is clear that what we have to give must be given on some great product of the Colonies ; and as the hon. member for Carnarvon has perceived, the preference must be given either on raw material or on food, or on both. ... He said that I was in favour of taxing raw materials and food. Of course, the hon. member had no right, from anything I have said, to say any- thing of that sort. In my opinion — and this is only a personal opinion, for do not let me be told afterwards that I am now laying down some law of the Medes and Persians, that is never to be altered and by which I am after- wards to be governed, because, as I have said, inquiries are to be instituted which may throw further light on the subject. ... I say that, without binding myself for all time or without shutting my eyes to possible further fresh in- formation, so far as I can see it will not be necessary to put any tax at all on raw material. And that for obvious reasons. It will be very difficult to choose the raw materials which would be suitable to this purpose. If a tax were put FOOD AND RAW MATERIAL 69 on raw material, it would have to be accom- panied by drawbacks on the finished exports ; and although that is not at all impossible, it would be a complicated way of dealing with a matter which could be dealt with much more simply. Therefore we come to this — if you are to give a preference to the Colonies — I do not say that you are — you must put a tax on food." That this distinction cannot be permanently maintained is curiously illustrated by a signal inconsistency in the very speech in which it was set forth. After declaring that so far as he could see, " it will not be necessary to put any tax at all on raw material," Mr. Chamber- lain proceeded to give two illustrations of the value of a preferential tariff, both of which would require the imposition of such a tax. In the first place, he demanded a means of defending Canada against German retaliation. A tax on German foodstuffs could be of little use for that purpose : the most important of them, sugar, of which over ;^9,ooo,ooo worth was imported last year, is fully protected from a British preferential tariff by the Brussels Convention, which Mr. Chamberlain himself secured ; there remain only wine, eggs, and a few minor commodities. Inevitably, retaliation against Germany would mean the taxing or 70 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL prohibition of German timber, hides, bristles, hemp, zinc, and plumbago, with the incon- venient results which the Colonial Secretary himself mentions. In the second place, he requires an instrument with which to "defend our own trade against unjust competition " from the great trusts which treat us as " the one dumping-ground of the world." If there were depression in the iron trade of America or Germany to-morrow, we are told, "it is per- fectly certain that quantities of iron will be put down in this country or the countries we are supplying at a price we cannot possibly con- test," and we must be prepared to meet it with a differential tariff. This is, of course, the rankest Protectionism; and we can hardly wonder that Free Trade makes so little progress in the Empire when its professed advocates adopt the reasoning that the Colonial Protectionist manu- facturer employs against our own products. For the moment, however, we only wish to draw attention to the fact that while emphasising the case against foodstuffs, Mr. Chamberlain is prepared at once to extend the penalty to manu- factures and materials of manufacture. Apart from these admissions, it is unfortun- ately impossible to take as final the Ministerial statements we have quoted, if only because no FOOD AND RAW MATERIAL 71 real distinction between food and other raw material can be drawn. At the same time, the Premier's words justify us in dismissing one half of the subject very briefly. I have not, therefore, been at the same pains in taking out details from the official returns for the second as for the first part of Table III. Beyond the general objection to penalising two-thirds for the benefit of one-third of our supplies of raw material, I would commend two facts to the consideration of any persistent Protectionist. The first is that, in more than three-fifths of the raw materials in which there is any substantial competition between Imperial and Foreign supplies, the former (to a total value of over 32 millions sterling) already practically rule their respective markets. In an earlier chapter we have asked why Australian wool should be given a complete monopoly when it makes its way quite easily without tariff advantage ; and the same question might be asked in regard to Indian jute, tin from the Straits Settlements, and Australian tallow. The second fact is that to the extent of more than a fifth (about 11^ millions sterling), the aforesaid Imperial sup- plies come not from the self-governing Colonies, which alone have expressed any interest in the question, and which alone are regarded in the 72 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL ordinary discussions, but from India and other Free Trade dependencies which have no tariff to lower in our favour and enjoy no political flirtations with the great men of Whitehall. Mr. Chamberlain referred in passing to the question of Australian wool in his speech of 28th May. " Assuming for the sake of the argu- ment " that a preferential duty would be of no value to the Commonwealth, he asked whether anyone imagined that " we should be such fools as to off^r the Australian Colonies something that would be of no advantage to them, and expect them in return to alter their system and to give up protection in our favour." This is very inconclusive. It may be assumed, how- ever, that, at the outset at any rate, the objec- tion to handicapping our textile and other industries for the sake of building up huge Colonial monopolies would make itself felt, and that the foreign articles chosen for taxation would be only those in the supply of which the Colonies have not already a preponderance. But this would seriously limit the possibilities so far as raw materials go. The withdrawal of wool alone reduces the Colonial supplies by one-third, and if other articles in the same position be withdrawn, the broad result is that about ;^ 1 00,000,000 worth of foreign supplies FOOD AND RAW MATERIAL 73 of raw material which at present govern their respective markets are to be taxed for the benefit of about ;^i 7,000,000 worth of com- peting supplies from British Possessions, at least ;^ 5, 000, 000 worth of which comes from our Free Trade dependencies. British manu- facturers, that is to say, are to pay 5 or 10 per cent, more for indispensable materials which they now get for £1 17,000,000 on the chance of these Colonies and dependencies taking more manufactures from this country. Impoverished India, which already takes all the manufactures from us which she can, is to have a preferential tariff in the United Kingdom for ;^3, 250,000 worth of hemp, cotton, silk, hides, and linseed, in the hope that the extra profit she thus makes will be spent on British goods. The question of whether Colonial supplies going by the same name are as good as foreign, for all purposes, is ignored by our fiscal revolutionists. Russian timber is to be taxed out of the market in favour of Canadian, in the hope that the Protection of the rising industries of the Dominion will be relaxed in our direction. A wilder speculation with a more desperate stake could hardly be imagined. Table III. gives details of three-quarters of our food imports, and includes every important 74 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL item in which there is competition between British Possessions and foreign countries. It will be seen that the former figure to the extent of just one-third, and the latter to the extent of two-thirds, in this area of competition. If, however, as in considering raw materials, we limit the list by withdrawing the items in which British Possessions already supply the larger part (cheese, mutton, rabbits, pepper, rice, cassava and tapioca, sago, rum, and tea), about ;^ 1 8,000,000 must be deducted from the Imperial, and about ;^6, 500,000 from the foreign side. Unless, that is to say, Mr. Chamberlain desires to convert preponderant supplies into absolute monopolies, the amounts he has to deal with are reduced to ;^2 1,000,000 of Imperial, and ;^i09,ooo,ooo of foreign, food- produce. But there is a further reduction to be made for the purposes of this discussion, for, as already noted, Mr. Chamberlain has himself undertaken, under the Brussels Con- vention of 1902, not to give preferential treat- ment to Imperial sugar imports. This brings the figures down to ^20,000,000 awaiting the preferential tariff, against ;^i05,ooo,ooo of com- peting foreign imports. The whole of our imported food supplies, not including tobacco, amount to ;^ 2 2 0,000, 000; nearly one-half of FOOD AND RAW MATERIAL 75 this, therefore, would be penalised, while only one-eleventh would benefit. Of this Imperial eleventh, by far the largest item is wheat, accounting, with flour, for £8, 500,000 out of the whole sum of ;^20,ooo,ooo which is to receive preference ; the foreign wheat and flour to be penalised amounting to a quarter of the foreign food imports under consideration — ;^27, 500,000. Let us now sup- pose a 5 per cent, duty upon these foreign supplies : evidently the penalty to the English consumer, from the rise of price over the whole produce, native and imported, will be almost as disproportionate as the foreign are to the Imperial imports. Wheat and Flour. Rise of Price. Gain to Im- perial and Native Pro- ducers. £ Foreign Imports . . 27,500,000 Imperial Imports . . 8,500,000 British Produce (say) . 9,000,000 £ 1,375,000 425,000 450,000 £ 425,000 450,000 45,000,000 2,250,000 875,000 We are to lose, in fact, over twice as much as Canadian, Indian, Australian, and British farmers 76 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL gain. On an earlier occasion (at Manchester on 17th June 1896) Mr. John Morley described this as a "harum scarum" project, and gave an effective illustration. Those who opposed it were, he said, sometimes described as " chilly patriots and parochial politicians." "One gentleman the other day seemed to me to present the matter in an excellent light, which I hope you will all take to heart. He says in this country we have to convince our masters, the working classes, that it is to their advantage to take a rather smaller loaf than they now have, for the sake of making that loaf more secure. What explanation will one of you give to his wife and his children when he puts the smaller loaf on his table? They will say, ' This is a smaller loaf ; how is that ? ' Well, what the gentleman will say to his wife and his children is, ' You must be very chilly patriots — you are parochial poli- ticians.' For what is it that he has to put the small loaf upon his table instead of the big one ? In order to promote friendship with the Colonies ; and he is to explain to his wife and his children that it is the Colonies who have caused him to bring a small loaf instead of a large one on the table. I cannot conceive a less likely method of promoting friendly FOOD AND RAW MATERIAL ^^ feelings. Then let us go to the other side of the matter. Let us go to the house of the artisan of Melbourne, who works in a factory which was started under protective duties. That factory is suddenly exposed by this mar- vellous magical arrangement to competition from this country, and that competition of course will lower his wages, and very likely shut up the factory where he works. Will that warm his heart for the old Mother Country ? I do not think it will do anything of the kind. So far from binding us and our Colonies closely together, an artificial arrangement of this kind would not only destroy the foundations of trade, but sow the seeds of ill-will and friction." Not only is such a project sure to create ill- feeling between the Mother Country and the Colonies, but it must create jealousy and dissen- sion between the various parts of the Empire competing for British favour. In the case of wheat, for instance, Canada, India, and Australia alone get any substantial advantage ; South Africa and the other dependencies gain nothing. A further analysis of Table 1 11.^ gives, indeed, a very remarkable result. Omitting sugar for the reason already given, but retain- ^ Covering the great mass, but not absolutely the whole of these imports — ;£36,ooo,ooo out of ;^39,ooo,ooo. 78 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL ing preponderant as well as minority supplies, the list of chief Imperial food imports open for preferential treatment, and shown in the second column of the Table, may be thus summarised : — PREFERENTIAL FOOD LIST— (^). From Total Imports from ■ Total Exports to Canada 15,138,587 Other self-governing Colonies 7,075,472 India and other Dependencies 12,826,423 Million £, 20 39 ■ 46 Million I 9 48 56 This, then, is another outstanding character- istic of an Imperial Preferential tariff for food- stuffs : it means that the Colony of whom we buy most, proportionately to its size, and to whom we sell least by far, is to get twice as great an advantage as the Colonies with which our total trade is just three times as large ! The South African Colonies, it will be noticed, do not figure once in our list of the chief Imperial food imports. On the other hand, both South Africa and Australasia make a substantial appearance in the list of raw materials. If FOOD AND RAW MATERIAL 79 only for this reason, an Imperial Preferential tariff could not possibly stop at foodstuffs. It should be added that if articles in which British Possessions already send the largest quantities be deducted from the food list, the proportions shown in the above table will be changed, greatly to the disadvantage of the Free-Trade dependencies. PREFERENTIAL FOOD LIST— (5). From Total Trade with United Kingdom. Canada .... 10,836,728 Other Colonies . . . 3.557j853 Dependencies . . . 3,082,590 MiUion £, 29 87 IO2 This looks like the programme of a Can- adian conspiracy, but it is nothing of the kind ; it simply represents the essential facts of our Imperial trade, which has got into its present channels neither by accident nor by Machiave- lian design, but by the operation of economic law. It matters to us very little, under Free Trade, that we buy much food of Canada, and sell comparatively little manufactures to her, because we must have food, and we buy it in 8o THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL Canada only because it is cheap and good. But to adopt Protection in order to pay dearly to a Colony which cannot be a very good customer, while we can give no corresponding advantage to the possessions that buy most largely from us, would be to shatter at a blow all possibility of a community of Imperial interests. Such a scheme is unjust, not only to the British consumer, but to the greater part of the Empire as well. No one Protective tariff can do justice to countries whose resources and requirements are so utterly different. To be just, England would have to construct a different tariff for each group of her possessions, and each group would have to construct a different tariff for every other group. In the instability of such arrangements, and the perpetual conflict of interests , that would arise. Customs experts, trust organisers, and machine politicians would no doubt find a great field of profitable activity, at the cost of the masses of the peo|jle in each community. The present fiscal position of the Empire may be anomalous ; but a series of preferential tariffs would make the confusion worse confounded. Until the Colonies are prepared at least for complete inter- Imperial freedom of trade, no advance toward greater uniformity is possible. VIII MYTHICAL WAGES AND IM- POSSIBLE PENSIONS I NOW turn to consider the prize which is promised to the "predominant partner" as a reward for initiating this economic revolu- tion. Mr. Chamberlain's method of reviving a moribund panacea is characteristically auda- cious. When Mr. Colmer issued his scheme seven years ago, he was at great pains to urge that his proposed duties would not raise prices. Of course the retort was obvious — a duty to be preferentially effective must raise prices ; a duty which does not raise prices cannot have any preferential effect. Only the ignorant are liable to the belief that a small tax does not touch anyone. Mr. Chamberlain takes a bolder line. He does not question the rise of prices, but he promises higher wages and old age pensions in compensation. 6 82 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL " We have been apt in the past to consider too much the advantage of buying cheaply, and not to pay sufficient atten- tion to the methods by which we may have the means that will enable us to pay at all. Increased wages are even more important to the working classes than reduced cost of living. A working man in the Transvaal may pay two or three times as much as his comrade at home for the necessaries of life for himself and his family ; but, if his wages are three or four times as much, the balance is still in his favour." ^ " I am prepared to go into any mechanic's house, or any labourer's house, or to address meetings of workmen or labourers, and, taking certain hypothetical calculations, for instance, that there was to be is. or 2S. on corn, say to them, ' Now this policy, if it is carried out, will cost you so much a week more than you are paying at present for your food. I set aside altogether any economical question as to whether they would or would not have to pay the whole of the duty that might be imposed. I will assume, for the sake of my argument, that you pay every penny of the duty, and, having assumed that, I will tell you what the cost will be. I know how many loaves you consume, how much meat you eat, and know what you take of this, that, and the other on which it may be proposed to put a duty ; and I will give you a table from which you can tell for yourself how much extra wages you must get in order to cover the extra ex- penses of living.' And that is the argument to which hon. gentlemen opposite will have to give their serious attention. If they can show that the whole of this business will mean greater cost of living to the working men and no increase of income, well, Sir, I have not the least doubt whatever that all their most optimistic prophecies will come ^ Letter to Councillor Lovesey of Birmingham, Birmingham Daily Mail, 21st May 1903. WAGES AND PENSIONS 83 true. But if I can show that in return for what I ask I will give more than I take, then, poorly as they may think of my judgnjent, I may still have a chance. That suggests another issue. Suppose you put a duty not for the purpose of Protection — not at all — but for the purpose of gaining these advantages — having something to give to your Colonies — suppose you put a duty on these pro- ducts, I suppose it will produce a very large revenue. We do not want that revenue for the normal expenditure of the ^country ; therefore we shall have a large sum at our disposal. Then to whom shall we give that sum ? In the first place, who is going to pay the tax? The working classes are going to pay three-fourths of" it, because it is the calculation, in all taxes on consumption, that the poorer classes pay three-fourths and the well-to-do one-fourth. That being so, according to my mind it is a matter of common justice that the working classes are entitled to every penny of the three-fourths ; and I would give them without the slightest hesitation the other one-fourth. I should consider that any Government which imposed these duties — in addition to all the collateral advantages to which I have referred — would have a very large sum at their disposal, which they ought to and must apply to social reform. That led me to say the other day that old age pensions or any- thing else which cost large sums of money, which have hitherto seemed to me to be out of reach of immediate practical politics, would become practicable if this policy were carried out. That is another argument which hon. gentlemen opposite will have to meet. When I am talking to a working man, and asking him to compare advantages and disadvantages, another argument — I tell it you in an- ticipation — will be, not only will you get back any benefits intended entirely and alone for you, but the whole sum you have paid you will get, in addition to the whole of what is 84 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL paid by the richer classes. That may or may not have any influence on the controversy ; but, at all events, the working man, in addition to any direct advantages he may get through increased trade and wages, will be enabled to press on the attention of this House a good number of social reforms which at present cannot be considered with any advan- tage." 1 Still more positively, writing on 3rd June, Mr. Chamberlain declared that, " even if the price of food is raised, the rate of wages will certainly be raised in greater proportion," and that he would not himself " look at the matter " unless he felt "able to promise that a large scheme for the provision of [old age] pensions to all who have been thrifty and well conducted would be assured by a revision of our system of import duties." It is not easy to grapple scientifically with a politician who makes sweeping statements and "promises" like these without offering any body of supporting evidence, and who says, at the same time, that it is impossible yet to pro- duce the plan that is to have such wonderful results. Extravagant as the hypothesis is, however, I shall content myself by appealing to such facts and figures as can be cited, leaving to others more speculative kinds of argument. And, as the thing in which Mr. Chamberlain 1 Speech in House of Commons, 28th May 1903. WAGES AND PENSIONS 85 is most definite is his promises, not the way they are to be fulfilled, it will be best to start with them and work backward — to inquire first what accretions of trade profit and revenue will be necessary to provide higher wages and old age pensions, and then what chance there is of getting these profits and this new revenue as results of a preferential tariff, I suppose I shall not be far wrong, to begin with, if I estimate the wage bill of the United Kingdom at ;^8oo,ooo,ooo per annum. In 1886 Sir Robert Giffen placed the annual payment to manual workers at ;^6o5,ooo,ooo ; and Mr. A. L. Bowley, basing himself upon that figure, has calculated that by 1891 this sum had grown to ;^699,ooo,ooo,^ the total national income being then ;^i, 61 1,000,000. A proportionate rise in the intervening period would bring the amount to more than that which I have named, this latter representing an average wage of about £'j^ a. year for the census category of "occupied" persons. Taking ;^8oo,ooo,ooo, however, as approxi- mately accurate, and (as every one of the "^Journal of Royal Statistical Society, June 1895, where Mr. Bowley shows that while wages have grown very considerably, the increase is not proportionate to that of the total income of the nation. See also Dictionary of Political Economy, vol. iii. p. 643. 86 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL eleven millions and their families would be affected by a rise in food prices) reckoning a small advance, say 5 per cent, over the whole area, we have our first result, which is that to give this rise (is. 6d. per week) would cost ;^40,ooo,ooo a year. As every head of a family probably spends on the average about fifteen shillings a week on food, this does not appear a large allowance. We have already said that the most authoritative estimate of the cost of old age pensions, that of Mr. Charles Booth, places it at ;^20,ooo,ooo a year. We may take it, then, that Mr. Cham- berlain has to show new resources to the net amount of ;^6o,ooo,ooo a year if the country is to be compensated for penalties he admits, and his promises of further advantage are to be realised. Where is this enormous sum to come from ? Partly, we are told, from the product of duties on foreign foodstuffs, and partly from profits upon new export trade with the Colonies under the stimulus of tariff preference. It must be remembered, in what follows, that I am constructing a sch^e to represent Mr. Chamberlain's ideas, not my own ; and that I am, for purposes of illustration, suppressing my own conviction of what would happen, and WAGES AND PENSIONS 87 straining the whole probabilities of the case in his favour, in order to show that, even if his assumptions as to the effect of the protective policy in stimulating the general body of our trade were correct, the favourable results which he has promised would not actually be forth- coming. I have already given general reasons for believing that such a policy must inevitably reduce the total volume of our trade, and that, in proportion as the preferential tariff is effective in increasing Colonial imports, the revenue from foreign imports must automatic- ally decrease until it disappears altogether. For the moment, however, and for the purpose of dealing in concrete fashion with the promise of old age pensions and higher wages, I shall allow that the impossible happens — that the total volume of our trade does substantially increase. And, in the first place, I shall assume that the preferential tariff is to be applied only to those foodstuffs in which there is substantial competition between Imperial and foreign sup- plies — commodities which are shown in the Appendix to amount to a value of about ;^20,ooo,ooo of the former, and ;^io5, 000,000 of the latter — the Colonial goods which already have a predominance in the market being 88 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL eliminated for the moment as not needing pro- tection. If we are to take Mr. Chamberlain at his word, and suppose the effect of the tariff to be to make the Empire, as he put it in his Birmingham speech, "self-sustaining and self- sufficient " ; in other words, if we are to stop foreign imports altogether, the result will evidently be to cut off the new revenue which, within any measurable time, must be the chief asset of the scheme. I shall, therefore, out- Chamberlain Mr. Chamberlain in this respect by supposing that, while, in a period of ten years, the Colonial imports will gradually grow to be as large as the whole of our present supplies put together — that is, will be quintupled in amount — the foreign imports will be reduced in that period by only about one-half. This will give an increase in the whole volume of imports of the articles in question amounting to no less than ;^5o,ooo,ooo, a hypothesis which ought to satisfy the Imperial Pro- tectionists. Dismissing the precedent of Mr. Colmer's trivial 5 per cent., which would evidently bring in nothing worth having, I shall suppose that the tax on foreign supplies will be an all-round 10 per cent., and that the profit on the increasing export trade which is to compensate us for the increase of imports, WAGES AND PENSIONS 89 and may, therefore, be taken as equal to the latter, may be reckoned also at 10 per cent. Under these assumptions, which, I repeat, are intended to represent Mr. Chamberlain's idea in the most favourable and most practical way, the balance of trade in the period in question would be as follows : — COMPETING FOOD IMPORTS— £ Sterling. Years. From the Empire. From Foreign Countries. Total Increase over 1903. 1903 . 1904 . 1 90s • 1906 . 1907 . 1908 . 1909 . 1910 . 1911 . 1912 . , 20,000,000 31,666,666 43,333,333 55,000,000 66,666,666 78,333,333 90,000,000 101,666,666 "3,333,333 125,000,000 105,000,000 99,000,000 93,000,000 87,000,000 81,000,000 75,000,000 69,000,000 63,000,000 57,000,000 51,000,000 5,666,666 ",333,333 17,000,000 22,666,666 28,333,333 34,000,000 39,666,666 45,333,333 51,000,000 Assuming that exports will increase at the same rate as the imports accounted for above, it is now quite easy to represent the total result of the scheme, in relation to the requirement, already explained, of new resources to the extent of ;^6o,ooo,ooo a year. The following table shows that it is a very remarkable result indeed, involving a total loss, in the ten years 90 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL period, of very nearly ;^50o,ooo,ooo, or about two-thirds as much as the National Debt : — THE PRIZE OF PROTECTION— ;£ Sterling. Years. 10 per cent. Profit on Increase of Exports. 10 per cent. Tax on Foreign Im- ports. Profit and Revenue. Loss on Scheme. 1903 . 1904 . 1905 . 1906 . 1907 . 1908 . 1909 . 1910 . 191J . 1912 . 566,666 1,133,333 1,700,000 2,266,666 2,833,333 3,400,000 3,966,666 4,533,333 5,100,000 10,500,000 9,900,000 9,300,000 8,700,000 8,100,000 7,500,000 6,900,000 6,300,000 5,700,000 5,100,000 10,500,000 10,466,666 10,433,333 10,400,000 10,366,666 10,333,333 10,300,000 10,266,666 10,233,333 10,200,000 49,500,000 49,533,333 49.566,666 49,600,000 49.633,333 49,666,666 49.700,000 49.733,333 49,766,666 49,800,000 25,500,000 78,000,000 103,500,000 496,500,000 The above table is based, as I have ex- plained, on the limited food list — details of which are given in Table III. of my first Appendix, The same idea may, however, be applied to the full list of our food imports as shown in the Board of Trade returns. In this case the result will be found to be a little less disastrous to Mr. Chamberlain's scheme, because the tax on foreign food produces more, and the proportion of Imperial to foreign supplies is at the present moment WAGES AND PENSIONS 91 somewhat larger. Again we start with an indisputable fact — the present total of our food imports being about ;^2 20,000,000 in value, of which about ;^ 180,000,000 worth comes from foreign countries, and about ;^40,ooo,ooo worth from British Possessions. From this point we proceed upon the same assumption that in ten years, under a 10 per cent, preferential tariff. Imperial supplies will equal the present total supplies, and that profit on the compensating exports and revenue from the new tariff will change accordingly. Happily the figures work out in a way that allows of more summary tabulation. Total Food Imports New Profit and Revenue Years. MiUion £) (Million £). 10 per 10 per Total cent. cent. Imperial. Foreign. Increase over 1903. Profit on Increase of Exports. Tax on Foreign Imports, Total. 1903 40 180 18 18 1904 60 170 10 I 17 18 190S 80 160 20 2 16 , 18 1906 100 ISO 30 3 15 18 1907 120 140 40 4 14 18 1908 140 130 SO 5 13 18 1909 l6o 120 60 6 12 18 1910 180 no 70 7 II 18 1911 200 100 80 8 10 18 1912 220 90 90 9 9 18 92 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL Under this full foodstuffs tariff, it will be seen that, on the requirement of ;^6o, 000,000 a year, there is a yearly deficit of ;^42, 000,000, or ;^420,ooo,ooo in the decade. The loss is smaller than under the more limited scheme; but it must be remembered that the area of commodities over which there would be a rise of prices is much larger. Taxing all foreign imports, the area of dear prices would be a total import, in the present year, of ;^2 20,000,000, and ten years hence (on the hypothesis) of ;^3 10,000,000, Taxing competitive supplies only, the rise would operate only on ;^ 12 5,000,000 this year, and on ;^i 76,000,000 ten years hence. Evidently the bigger the scheme, the worse the result. I have done my very best for Mr. Chamber- lain, but have obviously failed to produce for him a satisfactory balance-sheet. When every concession has been made, for the purpose of the argument, the conclusion is reached that, under the best circumstances, old age pensions are quite out of the question, and that against higher prices on the whole of our food imports, the^excess increasing gradually from ;^22,ooo,ooo to ;^3 1,000,000 a year, the utmost compensation is a stationary ;^i 8,000,000, some of which would be absorbed by the cost of the new WAGES AND PENSIONS 93 Protectionist machinery, and little of which would ever reach the unfortunate working man. The awkward fact around which the whole speculation revolves is that profit on the preferred trade cannot go up without revenue from the penalised trade going down. As the assumptions on which the above calculations are based have been designed to harmonise with Mr, Chamberlain's ideas, the calculations represent very inadequately the real results of the policy. There is, in fact, no ground what- ever for the expectation of such an increase of Imperial trade as, for the immediate purpose, I have postulated. This is the crucial part of the question ; for, as we have seen, under any effective prefer- ential tariff Mr. Chamberlain's only other asset would be a disappearing quantity. The sole hope of success in such a project lies in the direction of a very large and rapid increase of inter-Imperial trade. What real prospect of such an increase is there ? Fortunately, we are not quite without solid evidence on this point, so far at least as the United Kingdom is concerned. We have statistics, sufficiently though not absolutely complete, of the existing import trade of British Colonial and other possessions. Of this trade 94 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL we have already seen that about ;^ii3,ocx),ooo worth already comes from the United King- dom. About a half as much more consists of imports to one possession from another. There remains a small margin of imports to the Colonies and Dependencies from foreign countries ; and it will, I suppose, be admitted that if the United Kingdom could capture the whole of this existing foreign trade, she would have gained as much out of the Empire as she could hope to get for many years under any conceivable tariff system. I have, there- fore, tabulated below, with only one substantial exception, the value of imports received by the various Colonies and Dependencies from foreign countries in 1901. The only large item omitted is that of the Straits Settlements, whose trade is mainly of a dep6t character, carried on with neighbouring foreign countries. It could not possibly be transferred to the United Kingdom, and would be practically extinguished under a system of Imperial prefer- ence. A great many of the goods covered by these figures are not, and cannot be, produced in the United Kingdom at all. In about 10 per cent, of the Indian imports from foreign countries (kerosene, sugar, copper, raw silk. WAGES AND PENSIONS 9S IMPORTS INTO BRITISH POSSESSIONS FROM FOREIGN COUNTRIES, igoi.i Colonies. Dependencies. & ;£ Canada 27.613.374 India . 18,505,353 Newfoundland 473, 3°2 Ceylon . 860,415 New South Wales 5.446,563 Mauritius 446,419 Vi(ji:oria 3,811,090 Lagos . 128,657 South Australia 1,264,522 Gold Coast . 391,709 West Australia 959.285 Sierra Leone 125,851 Tasmania . 111,158 Jamaica 732.5«4 Queensland . 780,597 Barbados 410,477 New Zealand 2,018,218 Trinidad 1,517,402 Natal = 1,603,256 British Guiana 559.758 The Cape". 4.397,507 Transvaal and 23.678,555 Orange Rivei Colony' addi- Total British Posses tional, say 1,000,000 sions , 73.157.427 49,478,872 ^ These figures (which include imports of bullion and specie) are calculated from details given in the Statistical Abstract for Colonial and Other Possessions, 1902 (Cd. 1325), except those for the Transvaal and Orange River Colony. In addition to the Straits Settlements, the pos- sessions not included are Gibraltar and Malta (no complete returns). Hong Kong (no returns of imports), Fiji, British New Guinea, Falkland Islands, Gambia, St. Helena, Bermuda, and British Honduras, some of the lesser West Indies, and the minor African territories, for all of which details are lacking. * The South African figures are inadequate. Those of Cape Colony and Natal are abnormal, being afiected by the war. They probably include the main body of imports from foreign countries into the Trans- vaal and Orange River Colony ; but I have added ;£'l,ooo,ooo to represent such imports by way of Delagoa Bay. No recent, and no very exact figures, exist under this head ; but I find from the Command Paper, 9093, of 1899 ("Trade and Commerce of the South African Republic") that in 1897 £1,841,608 of general goods came in by Delagoa Bay, two-thirds of this being from Europe. 96 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL and spices, for instance) we do not compete. The proportion in the case of Canada is, as we have already seen, still larger. The sup- position that the whole trade could be artifi- cially transferred to these islands is therefore impossibly liberal. In every case, too, the dilemma applies : our Possessions must sell in foreign markets what we do not want to buy of them ; but they can only do so by taking foreign goods in return. An Imperial tariff would be a restraint which the Colonies themselves would not long tolerate. What is the use of Mr. Chamberlain subsidising lines of steamers to carry Jamaica fruit to the American market if he is going to block the imports which Jamaica takes in payment therefor ? Supposing the transaction to be possible, it is evident from the figures how very small an economic kingdom we should have got within our Chinese Wall. The earlier calculations of this chapter depended upon the hypothesis that, with a limited food tariff, our Imperial trade would increase in ten years by ;^io5,ooo,ooo, or with a full food tariff by ;^ 180,000,000. Even then the result was disastrous. But the figures now before us show that at the utmost we can only hope for an increase of WAGES AND PENSIONS 97 ;^73,ooo,ooo. The immediate penalty for this monopolist move would fall upon the exporters of the Colonies and Dependencies. How would it profit us ? The results, in brief, would be as follows : — 1. Prices would be raised in the United Kingdom on ^125,000,000 worth (under the limited schedule) of imported food, and upon, say, ;^30,ooo,ooo worth of native supplies — a loss to the country (at 10 per cent.) of ;^i 5,500,000 a year. 2. In the first year this would be partly compensated by ;^i 0,500,000 of new revenue. In subsequent years, however, this revenue would fall with the falling foreign imports ; and at the same time the decline of our exports to foreign countries would begin. 3. If Mr. Chamberlain's project became fully effective, the loss of these foreign sales may be taken to be equal to the decline of our pur- chases from foreign countries — ;^ 105,000, 000 — leaving a net loss of trade profit (at 10 per cent.) of ;^ 1 0,500,000 a year. 4. To compensate for this we can only hope at the utmost to export to our Colonies and Possessions in excess of what they take already, ;^73,ooo, 000 worth, representing a profit (at 10 per cent.) of 7.3 millions sterling. 7 98 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL The final account, then, stands thus — Gain — Million £. Profit on Increased Ex- ports to Empire . 7-3 Revenue on Foreign (Disap- ~ " . . peared) Food 7-3 Loss — Higher Food Prices . Loss of Profits on Ex- ports to Foreign Countries Million £. iSi 26 Not only, then, should we receive no old age pensions and no higher wages ; but, even if we monopolised the whole commerce of the Empire, we should lose over ;^3,ooo,ooo ster- ling a year of profits on export trade, and pay ;^ 1 5,500,000 sterling more for our food. In other words, we lose a total volume of oversea trade amounting to ;^ 3 2,000,000, and ;^I5, 500,000 on dearer food. However gradu- ally such a result were reached, it could only mean lower wages, increased unemployment, and the complete ruin of certain businesses and of the localities dependent upon them. It should, indeed, be evident, without any elaborate calculation, that the Empire cannot consume as much of our goods as the Empire and the outer world put together. The rise of prices would be a certain and automatic result of an Imperial preferential tariff; the loss of trade with our present largest customers is also certain, and would begin immediately. Any WAGES AND PENSIONS 99 compensation is altogether problematical, and at best must be long delayed. The consuming power of our Colonies is not unlimited ; though elastic, it is governed by their small and but slowly increasing numbers. The consuming power of our subject peoples is elastic only in a low degree, and is liable to great and sudden fluctuations, since our manufactures are not usually for them necessaries of life. It is easy to revolutionise a fiscal system ; there can be no like certainty of favourable results, such as higher wages and pensions. Nor is there any precedent to support the belief that Protectionist revenue would all go to the working classes. IX HOW WE HOLD THE WORLD IN FEE THE main part of our argument has neces- sarily been based upon the official statistics of imports into, and exports from, the United Kingdom. In describing at the outset our position in relation to our chief foreign customers and competitors, as shown by these statistics, I tried to commend a strictly temper- ate view of the facts, a view coinciding on the whole with the opinions of sober authorities like Sir Robert Giffen, Sir Courtenay Boyle, and Sir A. E. Bateman, a view equally far removed from the alarmism of the Protectionist and the easy indifference of laisser faire. There is good cause for serious reflection as to the future course of thihgs both domestic and international ; but there is no sudden crisis, there are no important "new facts," and, above all, there is no reason whatever for flying, 100 HOW WE HOLD THE WORLD IN FEE loi panic-stricken, into revolutionary experiments. The researches of Mr. Booth and Mr, B. S. Rowntree make it only too clear that the con- dition of the masses of the people does not reflect the rolling wealth out of which the Transvaal loan was subscribed thirty times over. For the evil of widespread poverty, however, other and surer remedies must be found. Mr. Balfour lately deprecated the idea that the advance of foreign nations in wealth and industrial activity is to be regarded as involving an injury ^to British interests. It means, of course, nothing of the kind. I n the increasing though by no means unqualified commercial success of the United States and Germany we have much to learn — lessons in education, in science and the organisation of industry, in democratic government, and, not least, in economy, which should mean not only wise retrenchment but also wise expendi- ture. The tables given in Appendix II. show how grievous a burden the ceaseless growth of armaments inflicts upon this country, a burden heavier per capita than in any country in the world. That we save our Colonies (though not our great Indian de- pendency) from this grave impediment to industrial success is a greater boon to them 102 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL than any tariff preference could be, because it helps them as alone men or nations can be permanently helped, by setting them free to pursue the highest social aims of which they are capable. It is the recognition of this object, and of the fact that the great com- petition of the future will lie in the domain of industry, where mediaeval armour is an im- possible incubus, that gave its peculiar dignity and statesmanlike quality to Sir Michael Hicks- Beach's protest against Mr.' Chamberlain's policy in his speech in the House of Commons on loth June. But, backward as we are in education, in social reform, and in our national finance, it cannot be said that there is any founda- tion for the more sensational statements of the advocates of a Preferential tariff. British trade is not at a standstill ; we are not shut out of the markets of the world ; Mr. Balfour had no warrant for saying that in this respect "the position of these islands is now entirely different from what it was in 1846 and in subsequent years." The essential facts of the situation are un- changed ; the proportion of our trade with foreign countries to the whole is unchanged. Competition notwithstanding, we send more of HOW WE HOLD THE WORLD IN FEE 103 our exports to Europe than to the whole of the Empire put together. The position is seen, however, to be more favourable still if we take into account not only what the Customs and Board of Trade classify as exports, but the real balance of our oversea trade, which includes also a number of other very important items of value. The Board of Trade gives the total imports of last year as ;^5 2 8,000,000, the exports as only ;^349,ooo,ooo. Ignorant observers have often jumped to the conclusion that this hiatus of ;^ 1 79,000,000 is a trade balance against us, and that we have to pay for it, as Mr. Seddon says, in so many "golden sovereigns." The "excess of imports" represents a per- manent condition, however, so that some other explanation must be found. It is found in the fact that to a large extent our imports are paid for by what Sir Robert Giffen has called "invisible exports." The formal differ- ence between the two sides of the account as it stands has been mentioned on an earlier page. Exports, being valued at the point of shipment, do not contain the elements of insurance, freight, and commission, which are included in the landing value of imports. As to the real, as distinguished from this formal 104 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL difference, Sir Robert Giffen, in an important paper on the subject, says : " The excess of imports is to be accounted for in the trade of a country like England in several ways, principally by the fact that England is a shipowning country and does a large business all over the world in carrying goods and passengers. This work is really in itself in the nature of an export, giving the country a credit for so much in its deal- ings with other countries. In addition, England is a country which earns largely commissions of different kinds in its trade with different countries as the commercial and monetary centre of the world's trade. Last of all England is one of the countries which has become entitled to the receipt of large interest and profits from other countries on account of capital which it has invested, and business which it carries on, in such countries, including the sums receiv- able by English subjects in the service of a dependency like India."! The excess in 1898 amounted to about ;^ 1 83,000,000, and Sir Robert Giffen, while observing that no exact statements were pos- sible, estimated the chief contributions to this sum to be as follows : — Interest and Profit on Foreign Invest- ments and Businesses . . . ;£'90,ooo,ooo Earnings of Ships . . . over 70,000,000 Commissions on Foreign Trade . . 18,000,000 We saw at the outset of our inquiry that 1 Journal of the Statistical Society, March 1899. HOW WE HOLD THE WORLD IN FEE 105 on the apparent balance of exports and imports, British Possessions buy a larger proportion of our exports than they sell of our imports. These imperfect figures cannot represent accurately the real balance of exchange, in which, in the long-run, there must be sub- stantial equality of value. Unfortunately, owing to the complications of triangular and even multiangular commerce, no exact balance- sheet can be drawn up. But some explanation of the anomaly may, I think, be found in the fact that much, probably by far the larger part, of the above-named items of profit and interest which are paid for by our " excess " of imports are earned, not in the Empire, but in foreign countries, where numerous businesses are carried on and immense sums of money are invested. I see no reason for honouring the British Colonies in Quebec or Cape Town, Johannesburg, or Malta, above the British Colonies in Paris and Brussels, Berlin, St. Petersburg, Vienna, Rome, New York, Wash- ington, Boston, and Chicago. Englishmen are proverbial wanderers ; and trade follows the traveller, whether he carries a flag or not. So, too, with British investments : is the payment of interest to be refused when they lie in foreign countries ? Mr. Chamberlain made "two io6 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL salient points" to the Colonial Premiers last year: first, that "the Empire might be self- sustaining," — a suggestion as to which it would be very interesting to get the opinion of the London Stock Exchange! — the second, that " we get most of our necessaries from foreign countries," which he thought " not a satisfactory state of things." It is to be feared that the Protectionist Premiers did not correct Mr. Chamberlain's economic fallacies. We have to take foreign imports because foreign nations take most of our exports ; but even if it were not so, we could not become a self-contained Empire without abandoning the interest accru- ing upon our enormous loans to the outer world. For instance, we send ;^7,ooo,ooo worth of exports to Argentina, and we get ;^i 2,000,000 worth of goods in return. Refuse Argentine corn, and you are really refusing interest upon the British loans by which Argentine agriculture and transport are largely carried on. We have shown that the trader depends in the main on foreign, not Imperial, customers, and necessarily so. The emigration statistics show that in 1901, of 171,715 of our exiled workers, no less than 61 per cent, chose the United States as their future home, while only HOW WE HOLD THE WORLD IN FEE 107 13 per cent, went to South Africa, and 9 per cent, each to Canada and Australasia. As it is with trade and labour, so it is also with credit and capital. It is by international money-lending that a large and an increasing portion of British wealth comes in. The profit from foreign and Colonial stocks, securi- ties, and railway bonds held in this country and assessed to income-tax was, in 1880, ;^28,ooo,ooo, and in 1899 about ;^6o,ooo,ooo. These vast possessions belong, it is true, to but a small and privileged number of our countrymen ; still, in the mass, they must be considered as an enormous addition to what I have distinguished as our economic or non- political Empire. They flourish under many flags ; they are defended — if the burden of armaments is to be called a defence — by many fleets and armies. So far as they go they may rightly be called international securities. So widely spread are they that every political adventure on which we embark may be said to involve an injury to some class of investors. In the case of profits of the shipping trade there is unquestionable and well-known evi- dence. The total clearances with cargo for all countries in 1902, recorded in Table VIa. io8 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL of the " Trade and Navigation " White Paper, may be thus summarised : — To Foreign To British .T..f,i Countries. Possessions. British Vessels (millions of tons) . 23.6 5.9 29.5 Foreign Vessels „ „ . 14.8 .4 15.2 It will be seen that while British vessels hold two-thirds of the recorded trade, four-fifths of this major portion is carried on with foreign countries. We profit in many ways by being the biggest shippers of the world. Our ship- building yards and our seaports are kept busy ; we get freights, commissions, and insurance business ; and, by being ever on the spot in all quarters of the globe, we pick up trade which would not otherwise find its way into our hands. The foreign imports which Mr. Cham- berlain wants to penalise are the payment for these our services to the outer world. This country is not only the world's greatest factory ; it is also the greatest market, and certainly the greatest free port, of the world. The more deeply other countries are involved in the mire of Protectionism, the more signal is our advantage as the shippers, warehousemen, and mercantile middlemen for both hemispheres. In a less marked degree this is also true of other parts of the Empire : Hong Kong and HOW WE HOLD THE WORLD IN FEE 109 Singapore are good instances ; a Customs Union would destroy them outright.^ In discussing the industrial aspect of the matter, we have shown the superior importance of foreign mar- kets for our exports of native products. The statistics of transhipment trade, though on a smaller scale, tell even more strongly in the same direction. Whereas 33.5 per cent, of British exports go to our own folk beyond the sea, the proportion in the case of re-exports — the proportion of our agency trade, so to speak — is only about 12 per cent. Set up the old toll-bars and octrois on an international scale, and a most serious blow is struck at a shipping trade carried on to the extent of 80 per cent, with foreign countries, and at a dep6t busi- ness with a net turnover of ;^65, 000,000 a year, to say nothing of retaliatory measures which would follow, and other secondary dis- asters. We might not hope that this consideration would appeal to the advocates of Imperial pre- ference, but for the fact, which they happen to have overlooked, that the Colonies are con- siderably interested in this trade. For instance, sheep's wool, the most important Australian export, forms two-thirds of our imports thence ; and these supplies continue, although we can no THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL use only a half of them, just because England is a free and open, as well as the most con- venient, market. Resurrect the old customs and bonding business, with its immense bureau- cracy, its certificates of origin, its formulae of description and classification, and other manifold nuisances and expenses, ai^d we lose at once the greatest advantage we possess as a mer- cantile nation. X THE PRICE OF RETALIATION SO overwhelming are the considerations which have now been recited that the close observer cannot escape the suspicion of another motive or set of motives behind the policy of Imperial Protectionism. Such a motive, and one of a very ominous char- acter, has, in fact, been avowed both by Mr. Chamberlain and by Mr. Balfour. In the debate of 28th May, the Prime Minister said : "Are we really in our hearts content with a position which leaves us absolutely helpless in the face of all foreign countries in regard to tariff negotiations ? It may be said that it is better that it should be so ; but that in itself it is eminently disagreeable, I think, will be admitted by anybody who has had to negotiate a tariff treaty with a foreign country. And I go further and say that if there is really to be an attempt On the part of foreign countries to declare that we are so separate from our self-governing Colonies that they may justly be treated as separate nations, then I say 111 112 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL we shall be forced by patriotism, by public opinion, by every regard for ourselves and our Colonies, to resist that and, if need be, to adopt retaliatory tariffs. I do not see how anybody can resist that." Mr, Chamberlain also rested his case largely upon "the fact that under our existing system we are helpless and totally impotent to bring any influence to bear on foreign countries if they attack our Colonies, or if they attack us." Discussing the case of Canada he used a very singular illustrative phrase. " Canada gave us this preference five years ago, and for five years she has been penalised. We have been bearing hot resentment in our bosom. Much good that does to Canada ; and we are to go on bearing it for the time which elapsed between the death of Gordon and the final conquest of the Soudan, Whatever else that may be, it is not business." "It is absolutely necessary," he concluded, "that we should have power to put duties on certain thing's if we are to retaliate in any way where our Colonies are injured by the reprisals of foreign countries," The perilous character of this kind of senti- ment will need no exposition to anyone who knows the conditions of trade prosperity, who understands how absolutely it, depends upon THE PRICE OF RETALIATION 113 international security, stability, and peace. To complain that Germany does not buy more of our goods, and at the same time to indulge in perpetual threats of the " long spoon " descrip- tion is to display a too extreme confidence in the independence of economic from political influences. The best proof that we are better without instruments of fiscal retaliation lies in the magnificent structure of British foreign commerce at the present moment. If we have succeeded so long without recourse to Protectionist weapons, it is unlikely that we shall adopt them in order to defend Canada's ;^440,ooo worth of exports to Germany, which buys fifty times as much from us, or to justify the Dominion in giving us a useless preference. Nor is it of much advantage to discuss the exact measure of justice in the Canadian com- plaint and the German reply. Justice is not secured by retaliation ; and retaliation is not governed by justice, but by power. Certainly the German case, published semi-officially in Berlin on June 2nd, is very difficult to answer on grounds of equity. In 1897, when the additional preference was given to British goods in the Dominion, the British Govern- ment was persuaded to denounce the "most 8 114 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL favoured nation " treaty of 1865 with Germany, by which that country shared our own advan- tage in the Colony, while Canada also shared our advantage in the German Empire. Of course the German Government retorted by applying its general tariff; Canada has since put a heavy surtax on German goods ; and now there is some possibility of Germany retaliating against this measure also. In the meantime, the United Kingdom and other British Possessions enjoy in Germany the advantage which Canada has lost. This is the normal course of fiscal retaliation. To us Canada is one of ourselves. To Ger- many she is a country with absolute power over its own tariff; when, therefore, like any independent Protectionist State, she with- draws from Germany the "most favoured nation " treatment, Germany then withdraws it from her. Under Protection no other course could be logically pursued ; and the adoption of retaliatory powers in this country could not affect the logic of the case. Any loosening of hold upon the Free Trade principle appears to lead to a complete confusion of ideas as to the natural consequences of tariff arrangements. This will be seen by comparing the speeches from which we have quoted with THE PRICE OF RETALIATION 115 the following finding of last year's Colonial Conference (p. 39 of the Blue Book) : — " In connection with the discussion of the question of preferential trade the Conference also considered the point raised by the Commonwealth Government as to the possibility of the Colonies losing most favoured nation treatment in foreign countries in the event of their giving a tariff preference to British goods. As, however, the exports from the Colonies to foreign codntries are almost exclusively articles of food or raw materials for various industries, the ■possibility of discrimination against them in foreign markets was not regarded as serious ; and, as the exports from foreign countries to the Colonies are mainly manufactured articles, it was recognised that if such discrimination did take place the Colonies had an effective remedy in their own hands." Last year Mr. Chamberlain and his friends thought the possibility of discrimination " not serious " ; now they represent it as a matter so grave as to require a revolution of the economic system under which 95 per cent, of the Empire lives! Last year they thought that "the Colonies had an effective remedy in their own hands " ; now they tell us that ufiless another remedy be found the Empire will go to pieces ! For the ambition of the Colonial Secretary it no longer suffices to have spent two hundred and fifty millions sterling in enabling Mr. Kruger to " stagger humanity." The ecoiiomic ii6 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL revolution is to be inaugurated by the invention of a tariff against a country which buys almost as much British goods as Canada, Australia, and New Zealand put together, albeit on a famous occasion we were informed that' it had about the same area as our ^colony of Queens- land. This time, however, Mr. Chamberlain's adversaries are not a handful of Dutch farmers, but two of the strongest States in the world, headed by men as vigorous and as daring as himself. The constitution of a ZoUverein would be the signal for a concentration of the Pro- tectionist Powers of the Old and New Worlds against the United Kingdom. An advocate of preferential measures, Mr. J. B. C. Kershaw, may exaggerate when he suggests that " were we now to establish a close system of preferential tariffs throughout the Empire, there is strong ground for the belief that the hostility of Europe would no longer find relief in words, but would demand an outlet in war." That there would be active hostility expressed in fiscal retaliation is beyond doubt. We should lose the " most favoured nation " treatment which gives us an advantage now in so many markets. Instead of this preference we should meet with fighting tariffs, with the ruinous results we have experi- enced in some recent periods of our trade with THE PRICE OF RETALIATION 117 the United States. The Colonies would suffer similarly in their increasing trade with foreign countries if they gave preference to us. Canada's quarrel with Germany would prove to be the prelude to a general struggle. To the Colonies this would not be a desperate matter so long as the United Kingdom re- mained to them as a huge tied-house ; to us, with our immense permanent preponderance of foreign trade, such an era of economic warfare would be absolutely disastrous. The second object for which Mr. Chamber- lain desires to hold an instrument of retaliation is that he may be able to fight foreign trusts and prevent England from being made a " dumping-ground " for their cheap products. In other words, he wishes — on the plea of forcing foreign production back into natural conditions — to rob us of the only advantage which foreign Protectionism gives us, in com- pensation for the injury it does our export trade, the supreme advantage of cheap supplies of food and materials of manufacture. In this policy Mr. Chamberlain has already made one grand experiment — the Anti-Sugar Bounties Convention concluded under British threats at Brussels last year. This measure is an invalu- able illustration of the general results of the ii8 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL policy of Imperial Protection, and of the utter confusion of mind to which it leads. So far as Mr. Chamberlain's argument as to the mischief of artificially stimulated supplies is true, it applies to our Colonies as well as to foreign countries, and it reflects gravely upon his own policy of Imperial preference. Canada and Australia actually give bounties on sugar production ; and the West Indies have long enjoyed a substantial indirect bounty in the form of State aid for the immigration of coolies. At Brussels, therefore, Mr. Chamberlain had to evade the logic of his own policy by pleading that bounties in the Colonies do not matter because (except the West Indies, whose sub- ventions are not yet officially declared to be a bounty) they do not at present contribute to our sugar supplies. Whether the future in this respect is gloriously uncertain or inglori- ously certain I shall not attempt to say ; but the position is hopelessly illogical. Again, Mr. Chamberlain was forced to agree to the clause of the Convention forbidding tariff preference for one kind of sugar over another. Perhaps he had at that time no idea of raising the Pro- tectionist issue. However that may be, he is to-day in the curious position of advocating differential treatment from which he has him- THE PRICE OF RETALIATION 119 self debarred one of our chief food imports. So much for consistency. But these are the smaller objections to the anti-bounty policy. The substantial objection is that, for the sake of the baseless idea that natural competition can be secured by retalia- tion or the threat of retaliation, we are now to impose countervailing duties on, or prohibit altogether, supplies (at present nine-tenths of our imports) whose producers are foolish enough to sell them to us at or even below cost of production. It would be difficult to imagine a more extraordinary piece of gratuitous and freakish philanthropy than is exhibited in this effort of Great Britain to compel the abolition of bounties that have given her people the inestimable benefit of a cheap and wholesome food supply, and her manufacturers a raw material with which they have won a footing in the most important markets of the world, England has on the whole every reason tb be satisfied with the success of her Free Trade policy ; but foreign Protectionism, in the form of tariffs on exports and bounties on exports, has undoubtedly damaged some of our trades and industries. In no other case than that of sugar have we been tempted to retaliate, yet this is precisely the one case in I20 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL which Protectionism directly and enormously benefits us at the expense of its authors. Agriculture is the basis of a sound national life, but we have allowed our agriculture to wither rather than sacrifice the preponderant interest of a cheap food supply. Shipping forms the arteries of our commerce — it is a native business in the fullest sense, and we are dependent on it in a hundred ways ; but our Government has not worried itself to procure the abolition of shipping bounties. Of the manifold forms of foreign Protectionism that hedge us about, this which brings us the maximum of profit and the minimum of loss is chosen for first attack ! At a time of national stress we are to throw back in the teeth of Germany, Austria, France, and Belgium the free gift of six or seven millions sterling which they send us yearly, and all for the beautiful eyes of the West Indian planters, whose total yearly output (most of which goes to the United States) could be purchased twice over for that sum. Such is the logic of the new Imperial finance ! In anticipation of the opera- tion of' the Convention, wholesale sugar prices in England have already advanced more than 30 per cent, above the level of last July. Sugar is almost the last commodity that THE PRICE OF RETALIATION 121 should be subjected to such a raid. It is now the most important of all the foodstuffs we pro- cure wholly from abroad, and one of our most important raw materials of manufacture. Forty millions of men, women, and children consume it at the rate of nearly two pounds per head per week. Except wheat, the poor have no more valuable food. The manufacture of con- fectionery alone — a high-grade business of the best type absolutely dependent on cheap sugar — employs over 100,000 hands and innumer- able retail traders, and contributes to our exports more than the West Indian Colonies do to our sugar imports. Indeed, the Islands and British Guiana only sent 2 J per cent, of the supplies in 1900, 92 per cent, coming from Continental Europe. There is what we may call a Two and a Half Per Cent. Alliance consisting of — (i) the West Indian sugar planters, a small, backward, long privileged and subsidised caste, whose troubles are largely of their own making, and who have been beaten not only by the highly trained and organised beet-farmer of Europe, but by the cane-planter of far-away Java and South America without any such stimulus ; and (2) a small number of sugar- refiners in this country — some fifteen concerns all told — behind the Germans in scientific 122 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL enterprise, all but the best of them, beaten rather by foreign science and energy than by foreign bounties, and only now employing some 5000 hands. What the West Indies want, as the recent Royal Commission proved, is not a protected market, but reforms in culti- vation and manufacture which the planters have so far obstructed, and, especially, the encouragement of new industries and of peasant proprietorship. I do not believe in the policy of bounties, though I object to a foreign Power trying to compel their stoppage by threats or actual retaliation. But a subsidy or bounty given to the West Indian plantations for the purpose and on strict guarantee of these reforms might be a sound, and, as compared with the Convention, an economical, ex- penditure. Hitherto the planters have had plenty of bounties, but have made very few reforms. Not only would the Convention make such a course impossible, but it would rob the Colonists of a substantial advantage they now possess. The diminution of West Indian imports into this country is largely due to the fact that the planters have found a wider, wealthier, and nearer market in the United States, which, in fact, take four-fifths of their produce. They THE PRICE OF RETALIATION 123 have won that market largely by the aid of the countervailing duties which the American Government imposes on bounty-fed imports. This immense advantage Mr. Chamberlain is now endeavouring to abolish in the name of Imperial Protection and philanthropy, and at a cost which every Englishman will feel at every meal he takes. I XI CONCLUSION T is now seen that the policy bf Imperial Tariff Preference involves — I. High Prices; Falling Trade; Low Wages. The certainty of dearer food, and, on a larger tariff, dearer raw material, with, at the same time, a falling volume of trade, and, therefore, restriction of wages, and increasing uncertainty of employment. 2. Fighting our Friends. A breach of good relations with our best customers — ^foreign nations which pay us in imports not only for our exports, but also for interest on investments and profits on business carried on under their various flags ; nations which entertain large colonies of Englishmen, CONCLUSION 125 like the United States, whither a million of British emigrants have gone in the last decade. 3. Ruin of Certain Trades and Districts. A revolutionary disturbance of the currents and channels of trade in which many industries, many branches of commerce (foreign shipping, for instance), and even many whole districts (the East Coast ports, whose trade is almost wholly with foreign countries, for instance) would be ruined. 4. Neglect of Reform. A diversion of public thought from the real weaknesses of our national and inter- national condition, weaknesses which must be accurately understood and remedied if, in Mr. Balfour's words, this branch of the Anglo- Saxon race is to enjoy " the great and trium- phant economic progress which undoubtedly lies before the United States of America" 5. Dissension throughout the Empire. A cultivation of jealousy, dissension, and greed after British favour between different parts of the Empire and different interests in each part ; an increase of animosity against us 126 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL on the part of all foreign nations ; and an instability of economic ideas which must have grave effects in the business world. The figures given in Appendix II. show that the Colonies have the advantage of paying only two or three shillings per head, where the English- man has to pay thirty shillings, in military and naval expenditure. Whether, or not, as Mr. Chamberlain told the Colonial Premiers last year, "no one will pretend that that is a fair distribution of the burdens of Empire, no one will believe that the United Kingdom can for all time make this inordinate sacrifice," it is certain that we cannot add another and greater sacrifice to it. We should have little to fear as to the reception of such schemes if the essential facts of our commercial situation were as well understood as they should be among those who elect and those who are elected to our so - called Imperial Parliament. We have attempted to indicate some of these very briefly by distinguishing between our political and our economic empires ; between our sub- jects and our customers ; between our Colonies and Possessions held by governing power and force of arms, and those we have won by skill and enterprise in commerce and industry. We CONCLUSION 127 have pointed out that Nature has determined that some of the best markets for our mineral and manufactured exports, and the best sources of supply of our imported food and raw material, are those which lie outside our Imperial terri- tory. In every country the ideal which trade silently preaches is internationalism ; but what elsewhere is but an ideal rises in these islands, owing to geographical and other circumstances, to an immediate and imperious necessity, de- ducible from no more romantic bible than the Board of (Trade Returns. The tendency toward a wide international variety of ex- change does not decrease, it increases, as countries advance in civilisation, production, and commerce. Beside this general tendency there is in the case of the British Empire the supreme fact of extreme difference of material condition and resources. In Germany, especi- ally at the time when she made herself into a ZoUverein, economic diversity has been much less marked than it must be in an empire spread about over the two hemispheres, a con- glomerate of races, religions, civilisations. In the United States there is no equal diversity of economic condition ; and every expansion of that federation has been an expansion of an immensely wealthy Free Trade area. The 128 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL governing genius of the Anglo-Saxon masters has succeeded in holding our scattered peoples together in a loose federation, in proportion to their toleration of local freedom and avoidance of over-centralisation. Fiscal systems, whether Free Trade or Protectionist, arise not out of schools of thought, but out of hard material exigencies which are nowise affected by political rhetoric. We have seen that in the case of Canada the policy of fiscal preference was a vain kicking against the pricks. The Dominion wants to trade with us, but she is beginning to supply herself with manufactured articles, especially with iron and steel goods ; and we cannot provide her with foodstuffs, or cotton, or wood, or copper, or skins, or tobacco. Similarly, India wants mineral oil, raw materials, wine and foodstuffs, which we cannot supply ; and Australia wants coffee, wine, mineral oil, manures, and so on. No extension of political rule by a manufacturing nation can make its subject peoples take more than manufactures from her ; and the time inevitably comes when they want to manufacture for themselves. So far from following the fantastic move- ments of " the flag," British or any other trade, so far from being determinable by tariff arrangements, has its own roads, and will be CONCLUSION 129 destroyed before it is diverted into artificial channels. The reasons are plain. All organic growth depends upon mobility, and inter- national trade, which is a measure of the expansion of the human mind, is an exceed- ingly delicate organism. In their essential wants civilised people are cosmopolitan. Trade is the grand internationaliser. Our history has proved that it breaks through hostile tariffs and flows over political barriers. Our history is now proving that it cannot be created by force of arms, by the mere acquisition of territory, or by fiscal jugglery. It is magnifi- cent, if not very statesmanlike, for the great men in Whitehall to propose that the far- removed lands that own allegiance to them should all be cut down to one model ; it reminds one of Tsar Peter cutting the beards of his boyars. But the British Empire is not so flat and tractable that it can be dealt with in that fashion. Each Colony has its own economic arrangements, founded on local exigencies, re- presenting various grades of development and political circumstances, various interests, selfish no doubt, but commanding for the present. This very geographical extension and political and racial diversity help, indeed, to hide the other essential fact which we have emphasised. 9 130 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL As the Free Trade part of the Empire is vastly larger than the Protectionist, so in that larger part the interests of these islands are absolutely predominant. The foreign imports into Little England are four times as great as those of the whole of the rest of the Empire put together. A promiscuous preferential duty, four-fifths of the consequences of which would fall on our own shoulders, would be too mad ; but it is doubtful whether we should not be hit as hard by any such selected schedules as have been suggested. To raise a tariff barrier against the nations with which three-quarters of our trade is carried on for the benefit of those which hold the remaining quarter is to make three friends into enemies, in order to tie one of your own family tighter to your apron-strings. The economic results might, as has been suggested, prove still more serious. So far as we can offer the Colonies a market, it is a market for foodstuffs and raw materials. Yet of food- stuffs only about one-fifth of our supplies comes from British Possessions, so that in this respect the case is even worse than that of the one friend to the three enemies. We are to boycott four provision shops in order to give the fifth a monopoly! We have seen that the Customs Unionists are quite wrong in the most essential CONCLUSION 131 point when on the strength of arbitrarily chosen figures, they declare that "the trade with the Colonies is developing more rapidly than that with other countries," It need hardly be pointed out that evidence leading to that conclusion would defeat their purpose, since, if the Colonies were progressing more quickly than foreign countries under our Free Trade system, there could be no need to try the risky experiment of a preferential tariff. Our own contention is that, with a fair field and no favour beyond what is naturally given to kith and kin, the Colonies have grown up alongside, not in advance of, their foreign seniors ; and that their present health and vigour are due, in the first place, to the wise policy which, while ensuring their territorial integrity, backing them with the capital and credit of one of the wealthiest countries in the world, and relieving them of military burdens, has required of them in other matters a sturdy self-reliance. So far from making for closer Imperial union, schemes like those we have now examined are well calculated to bring about a very decided change of temper on the part of the people of the United Kingdom. If Mr. Chamberlain's ideal could be realised, Disraeli's phrase, " these wretched Colonies are a mill-stone round our 132 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL necks," would soon be in common use. The " old shibboleths " are the best after all. Trade lies largely, still, in the domain of unconscious evolution, where we are subject to a power that shapes our ends toward the supreme good of world-wide brotherhood, rough hew them as we may. The Colonies must be content to make haste slowly; let them return thanks night and morning for having been enabled to escape the evils of militarism as it flourishes on the Continent, of unrestrained capitalism as it flourishes in the United States, and of aristo- cracy as it flourishes in the old country. We already bear many burdens for them, and we hold still before them the example of one vastly important step towards full economic freedom, confident that, when they can adopt it, Free Trade will do for their people what it has done for us. They can do much on their own account by progress towards a rational and harmonious fiscal system, and, within limits, proposals which make for fiscal unity may be encouraged. Further than that, and especially backward toward the morass of Protection, England cannot go. APPENDICES 134 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL c/} H o Ph X l-H , Q i-H < Ah ^ a: W3 Q o o P c« few a o D H O O W CO p< « pt, O CO < a o £« .„ '•§ « I — I en ,n "I O S > O O 4-> !>. . O c (U X ^ o ■o.a ^ o a -2 il i .a M ^ o _ O," (U C o S o g S «<-i •-• J3 "C <0 (U J> 3 en Q O bO S 1^ o w "u c 2 y -a s.S 5 § i w CO 00* N m o i i CO s- i If CO >^ ■a lO «3- 00 a\ 00 M So CO t \ Imports— From Foreign Countries From British Possessions Total .... APPENDICES 135 mi-i VO « w CO t^N ON 00 »n en "1" vo •vj-r- OVOO r^ cow m m\o o\ OvOO 00 N •* t^ min m t-T cf ■* *C IH* 00 m^a- ON N rooo C4 l-l en « en r^ ■* «■* 00 »;«n « to en VO *s ■< •*tn rn *Coo m iM'tC Ov m-* »-« t-o 00 10 VO COi-> ■* m« *^ M M N c^ 11 en VO W 00 mit VO Cv fO C4 Tf Th 00 \o VO t^O t^ «VO o> gv'ft ONt>. VO O'* rrt o\a\ 00 coo ■* rfloo i-Tdi moo ■* « N ■* f*iOO M M rh ■♦« vO VO ON in N t^ mm w *^" 00_ •HVO^ 00 U1^ao (S r»o 00 m VO in l-l ■* iO»-i VO l-t w N M IH en VO N 00 S'a VO 000 «o 00 ■* ■O- 00 ON t^ OV ui m m MOO *-< run OV CO-* r; 1^0 t^ CI VO ON « o\ l-l iC-* tf ■# en ^■^ 00 M t^ OV co«i- 00 * M r^ OMO ■* 00 m invo mo_ en 00 »J^ ■"J; \o ■* 10 tC en cf cf •0 Ov en ■* rntS en ■^cn ocT CON "^ r^oo in " w m m O.'* m Ovvo VO o;« o_ 00^ r;. m dvco m covo 0" rn ■^ dl ■^ Tj-OO fo «n VO CT. 1 ^00 VO l-l « N " low t^ ■ X ■ 3 * ' ■ Isi ■ " ' ' * ' * •S'CS " reduce) — tries . sions . ■ 6 •0 ■ ■ ■ l-i • Bli in X o'S • •So" 3 ^ S ra M 3 III "rf -3 .200 hOi» 1^- H ^' (In i-ii e- H Q H RTS (Bl Foreigi British C-5J.S ill „ rt rt Woo p «^H f^HH » Pi W •- — "3 136 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL TABLE II. ANALYSIS OF IMPORTS AND EXPORTS, 1902, ACCORDING TO ARTICLES. (Details from Trade and Navigation Accounts, December, 1902. — 24 xi.) IMPORTS. EXPORTS (British Produce). Food. Manufactures. I. Articles of Food £ I. Yams and Tex- £ and Drink 210,450,776 tiles 103,336,862 2. Living Animals . 8,269,175 2. Metals and Metal 3. Tobacco 5,799,810 Manufactures . 3. Machinery, etc. . 4. Apparel, etc. 42,612,141 224,519,761 18,751,812 12,150,371 Raw Materials. 1. For Tex;tile Manufactures . 78,570,555 2. For other Manu- factures . C5i f^ll A aR 5. Chemicals, etc. . 6. Ships, New 7. Other Manufac- tures, and Parcel Post 9,586,728 5.891.775 42,774,711 XG/\^^%A^\^J ■ ■ 137,202,003 235,104,400 Raw Materials. Part of the following items are also (Mainly Coal) 31,171,616 materials for manufacture : — Food. Metals . 30,361,902 (Including Fish, Pro- Oils, Chemicals, Dye visions, Spirits, and Tanning Beer, and Live Stuffs 17,575.435 Stock) . 17,263,964 47,937,337 283.539.980 Carry forward 409,659,101 Carry forward 283,539.980 APPENDICES 137 IMPORTS— Brought forward Manu&ctnred Arti- cles Miscellaneous, and Parcels Post 409,659,101 99,050,648 20,150,53s Total Imports . 528,860,284 EXPORTS— £ Brought forward . 283,539,980 RE-EXPORTS (Foreign and Colonial Merchandise). Wool . Cotton, Raw . Jute, and Jute Manu- factures . Tin . . . Other Articles 10,071,638 6,322,813 3,217,689 2,736,712 43,461,832 65,810,684 Total Exports . 349,350,664 138 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL < s o u w W o iJ ^ o hH (^ O Pii w Eh P < Q O o o Eh o h-l CO 1—1 H HH O u o :z; o"oo ^21: S?« gj 8 io5 F «o- tC t-TscT hT cf CO m" tCco ;a Ml VO M VO W W M N t^ .^ " " tN. « M no o ONOo VO M c» 00 O rovo N ro -joo CO M CO •^ §j CO •* ro O CTivO to M ro CO 00 rf S?S m O 00 M ^n -•^MOO r^n 0) PI iriTf 1" •1 cT ■>f " H mN « ^^o^loo■>l■«Ol-|^^'-'«o9*»^^s^ s C^\0 M meow O "111 O "S-sO •*« o »oinQ M OVO O U) lom tH M Omi to 1-.VO 00 ■* 1- vo «n K ^S=8 ro^O* M> N 00 cSoo ■* -vo ■* eS cK .* rn ef a mosr^vovo o onO moo mroTTO « « ta « rflM a\ o\'a >noo o oo o oo « r^N t^.* |i vodSw m" " « w N COOO comiH CO < B si g< gi»r^ m w vo a\ o -vd-oo oo o\r^ w forooo in oo_^ ro o_oo ro ^oo « M t>. CO •S ^S^cS N* M Ovsd'cK o -^lor^ tC*^ d" •S o OOOSO tON rOO "ON ■B so rnt^co m MOO «0« N « ■*>-• * ca hT t-T •* t-T M ■ • • - • en to . . . U (U V S '. = ^^ " £ ■a N s S rt "S ■ ■ f. o ^ u e 66 ^j? d dudlmdcj s^o-d il' ^SM w '^'S § Pt •^s • • • • • s s ti 73 "a ^6^ ; - "^ "-ylilii ■n JM u wu^MOJm £ K APPENDICES 139 91 M invo 5 S ONW WOO ■*f^t? 95 f^vo «^"0 ^^^ o ■* o"^ lovd* i-T M w o w in o ^ ■* ^ CT» ■too « « o O Qv O t^ VO woo O cfOOO w VO « mm 0^ 0\ t 0^ O »n ONOO 00 m d Ov ON «^ t "fO O VO VO moo ts. OjvO 0\ -^vrf cT rood' ■^ ro vooo o^ootN.w tn vOwMVOOOwOl^ fO lots, w tNiVO 10 00 ON cT \o m •"^ t^vo O^ On t-t w « o ^O O "^t^l On*^ cno^o" cT w C4 tsC4Q0 vor«*o T^wvo w c4 t^ONO g^ONw fn-o 00 on o\ o no o^to^w N 000 *nNO cnvo ^00 '^'^ SStr^^Ei^ rC lAvcT m" irivn fnvQ o cf\ tC rn ^ ro •-< of ior> w oi ] invo mvD O ON tN. m u^ M <£> 00 ON ■*\0 O O ON w PI roN ■t eO't w t j>, w « Throw 00 »0- - t CO CO m o mco t rovo CO t « 10 VO > 00 w in a?. :S3 -— * S" fj ^« n-J ^n S ^•i Tl • — in ,0 ^"^ O COVOVO h; i-i 00 "^ "^ o « « « " * 8 Sv o o o o ovvo S " a; »; cf; r? « 1 1 ^°° '5°°. VO >-<" d'oO -#00 oo" eO>0" Ol CKOO ■# rj tJvO 00 11 1^ rovo 00 «iicv« o>>f)oooo ooos '^S S?^ 2:l?2.S :r^ N-C C £3 to o -- *-• ^ -s -B a s z> — 3 is ■a e-ll §^.ag§ §§•§ 3 O cd u r^-I? !§ «§^ 0) ^ h V (A ri n d o 3-^ 5 s B fy Ji y T) T) n 1 3 .s "A a H r> =* ^'T & cn B 3 "en Si- §5 •o 3 140 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL 2^ '\! M "« ClJ n cr n s ,"^!3 S< ■jj 1 g hH ti< J3 ■B 'cLm p. g y biitl s. 1 o u D .ss? -? rt ,o a o o 00 C4 %ON M f*^VO O ON « VO t^O\VO t^fO ■* ^ &^S 5ffi ro 00 2;g> 0000 m 00 \0 ^^0 t s? |i ^ ^ §8^" "^5 1 tu HN t-i ON f*^ r^ o^oo I cc ci -^ ^S" M lo d\ w" «" « . 11 S?o ">* 0\ N 0^ MOOON-^tt"*- o^*^^N i^m M ^tOv'S- oj-^tCSM *::«*^ ^VO M-OO s?:?^>g" rooo fO f^OO" rovo 4 o?"" *2!.? s 00 rovO vo 1^ M vo n M '^ SS •n *;" " oosoroN rnnoN " VD o^oo c pT M i-T ONON I 1/11-1 g w - • ■ • ■ . . 's tn in u fe rrt ■ ■ fe is CO 1.S.S "2 0,0- DwSiS;! 6t8£ II II 00 O OOOVO ■^Ti 00 ■* ON "^ f*l O *-s OM-t « CTvvO cpa- CO w 0\0\N CO Th tn rooo m tN.oo t^ ro M N 0\0 Tj-« moM- tJ- ONM*nONO00in fO\o VO ■* « 00 « Vg^'SS'&.J? in ►-• \o « ro inoo oo i vo •*o\o >5« 1^ !>. 0\ -ej- in«0 t^ 0\^ 00 vo >o*o O MVO « Tl m iM'^WwrN.rs.roo « f^VOOO M 1 « ro lo ONtoN n ■*« £ ^ 01 ■S e ■0 '<§ .... ■ -J • ■ £ ui a> u d [Q .M^ • •■•31^"^*^ ■3 =3§|^^gggs , 1 ... 4 •5 &? G tQ ■S 1 . . .-Si s 1 5 i::::; ^^ V ' ' ' •e « S ri pS >< -S ■^ "pi* 1 1h^ = K • . . . "^ ; 5 >- 6 a ^M^ s APPENDICES 141 APPENDIX II. MILITARY EXPENDITURE OF UNITED KINGDOM, BRITISH COLONIES, AND FOREIGN COUNTRIES. TABLE I. MILITARY BURDENS OF UNITED KINGDOM AND FOREIGN COUNTRIES COMPARED. These figures are much abbreviated from Table A, p. 72, of the Colonial Conference Blue Book, where many explanatory details will be found. II Military. Naval. Defence Expenditiure. Country. ■ li a Total. ■Sri |JJ Great Britain . 40 662,Si8 1.63 s. 10.17 s. 13. 1 1 £ 47,211,700 s. 23.28* g^ [united States . 76 201,536 .26 5-49 3.01 32,443,418 8.50 ^ 'France 38 616,475 1-59 14.36 6.8z 40,9x6,049 21. i8 i Germany . S6 595,336 1.05 11.84 2.83 41,463,972 14.72 m Russia 129 1,092,444 .84 5-37 1.56 44.6471 139 6-93 1 Italy. 3Z 226,603 .70 6.84 3.06 15,861,266 9.90 S Switzerland 3 234.925 7.09 6.79 ■ ■ 1.124.836 6.79 c3 Japan 43 157,829 .36 1-75 .82 S,6i7,i44 2-57 * These figures are not an adequate statement of the facts, as will be seen from the succeeding tables ; but they probably offer an accurate basis of comparison with the foreign countries named. At any rate they stand upon official authority. 142 THE PROTECTIONIST PERIL TABLE IL GROWTH OF BRITISH MILITARY AND NAVAL EXPENDITURE, (From Table V. of Statistical Abstract, 1902.) Years ending March 31. 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 £ 30,758,293 29,107,133 32,767.749 33.371,932 33,162,789 33,265,683 33.327.475 35.143.563 38,116,674 40,376,962 40,093,712 43,996,949 69,372,359 121,044,541 129,766,021 Exclusive of ;^46,6oo,ooo ; ;^6o,342,ooo. war charges the expenditure was, in 1900, in igoi, ;^S3.993.ooo ; and in 1902, APPENDICES 143 Q < o Q O Op Eh ^1 < PL, IS MO H fl4 O en M Q p4 m > ■SB O tiQ s . o O oi -« §!° pq S o " S s w rt S ess? ■S.S'S O-g o V C e •« .. S "" S^ O B S " S Ji i0 fll CO . . ^--^ S is V(m t* ■§s| •0 tl "*■ 0. ro t'-'O 00 « 03 in oi *^ n : m n 00 ■♦ to ^00 ; S-ho s?-" 0000000 ^ 3 C w&s '5'^ "1 s R Q CO t^ ro ■♦ in« Q 4 .85;8;S"Sg:8 . . s CO 'oco M ^s n ** ^3 tnoo otin'^-<-c>otmt^m o'ol c moT woo « cTio" m«f rC t7 cSS* u '^lO >* ro cnoo Ol ro H H ci M H M con •— g »* ■O" ^j^co M o^«vd fWcn -*■ g 5-^si • m ^^ OmmOOOOOO q«l Q> § ^bi ■0I? 00 roto m H o>ao to g till So. 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'—Pall Mall Gazette, Arthur Morrison's Novels. Croidn Zvo, 6s, each. . TALES OF MEAN STRE:ETS. .Fifth Edition, *A great book. The author's method is amazingly effective, and produces A tl^illing sense of reality. , The writer lays upon us a master hand. The book is simply appalling and irresistible in its interest. It is humorous also ;. without humour it would not make the mark it is certain to make.' — World. ACHILDOFTHEJAGO. Fourth Edition, 'The book is a masteipiheei'—PdllMall Gazette:- ■ . ' ' - TO LONDON TOWN. -Second Edition. , ' *3This' is the new Mr. Arthur Mdrrison, ' ' gracious anid ' tender, sympathetic' ' and ■taumaa.'— Daily Telegraphs CUNNING MURRELL. ' ■ . ' 'Admifablcv . . .. Delightful humorous relief. . . a' most artistic and satisfacto'ry . achievement,'-^— 5/tfc/a/(7r; THE HOLE IN THE WALL. Third Edition. *A masterpiece of artistic realism. It has a finality of touch that only a master may command.' — Daily Chronicle. J An al)Solute masterpiece, which j any novelist might be proud to claim. '—6r0J$Aii?. / *' The Hole in the Wall'"* is a masterly piece of work. His characters are drawn with amazing skill. Extraordinary power.' —Daily Telegraph. 34 Messrs. Methuen'b Catalogue Eden Fhmpotts' Novels. Crown 8v0, 6si eaih, LYING PROPHETS. CHILDREN OF THE MIST. THE HUMAN BOY. With a Frontispiece. Fourth Editioii. 'Mr. Phillpotts knows exactly what school-boys do, and can lay bare their in- most thoughts ; likewise he shows an all- ■ pervading sense of humour. ' — Academy, SONS OF THE MORNING. Second ■ £diHatu^ _ ' A book of strange power and fasdna- tion.* — MomittffPoiU THE STRIKING HOURS. Second Edithit.. ^ Tragedy and comedy, pathos and humour, -are blended to a nicety in this volume.' — World, '. ' The whole book is redolent of a fresher and ampler air than breathes in the circum- scribed life of great iovms.''—Spectaior, FANCY FREE. Illustrated. Second Edi- tion. 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Methuen are now.publishing a cheaper issue of some of their popular Novels in a new and most charming style of binding. Andrew Balfour. To Arms I ' Jane Bailow. A Ckeei. of IRISH Stories. E. F. Benson. The Vintage. J. Blonndoile-Buxton. IN THE Day of adversity. Mrs. Cafl^ (Iota). Anne MAtn-EVERER. airs. W. K Cliftord. A Flash of Summer. L. Cope Comford. sons of Adversity. Menie Muriel Dowie. THE Crook of the bough. Mrs. Dudeney. THE THIRD FLOOR. , , Sara Jeannette Duncan. a voyage of consolation. . G. Manville Fenn. THE Star Gazers. Jaiie H. Flndlater. KACHBL. ' Jane K and Mary Findlater. TALES THAT ARE TOLD. J. S. Fletcher. The Paths of The PrudeNt. Maiy Gaunt. Kirkham's Find, Robert Hlchens. BYEWAYS. 4° Messrs. Methuen's Catalogue Emily Lawless. KUKRISH. MAELCHO. Vr. E. NorriB. Matthew Austin. Mrs: Oliphant. Sir Robert's Fortune. iUaiy A. Owen. The Daughter Of AtouErrE. Uary L. Fenderefl. An Englishman. Morley Roberts. THE Plunderers. B. N. Stephens. An Enemy to THE King. :i,. Mrs. Walford, SUCCESSORS TO THE TITLE. Percy White. A Passionate pilgrim. THE. IQBL^DER'S SWORD. By S. Barinsf-GDUld. Two LITTLE CHILDREN AND CHING. By Edith E. CutheU. . TODDLEBEN'S HERO. By M. M. Blafce. Only A Guard-IIooh dog. By Edith E. CutheU. THE DOCTOR op THE JULIET. , ,By Hany Collins- wood. IljASTER ROCKAFELLAR'S VOYAGE. By W, Cldrfc 3i3ooft6 fot 3I30SS and (3iTls Crown Svo. 3s. 6d. SYD BELTON ; Or, the Boy vho would aot go to Sea By G. Manville Fenn. The Red Grange. By Mrs. Molesworth. THE SECRET OF MADAME DE MONLUC. By the Author of Mdle. Mori.' Dumps. By Mrs. Parr. A Girl of the People. By L. T. Meade. Hepsy Gipsy. By L. T. Meade, ar. 6rf. THE honourable MiSS. By L. T. Meade. Zbe IftoveUet Messes. Methuen are issuing under the above general title a Monthly Series of Novels by popular authors at the price of Sixpence. Each number is as long as the average Six Shilling Novel. The first numbers of 'The Novelist' are as follows : — I. Dead Men Tell no; Tales. By E. W. 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BY Stroke of Sword. By Andrew - Balfour. ' XXVI. Kitty alone. By S. Barin^-Gonld. XXVII. GILES INGILBY. By W. E. Norris.. XXVIIL URITH. By S. Baring-Gould. XXIX. THE town traveller. By George Gissing. XXX. Mr. SMITH. By Mrs. Walford. XXXI. A CHANGE of Air. By Anthony Hope. XXXII. the kloof bride. By Ernest Glanville. XXXIIL ANGEL. By B. M. Croker. XXXIV. A COUNSEL OF PERFECTION. By Lucas Malet. XXXV. The babVs- Grandmother. By Mrs. L. B. Walford. XXXVI. THE COUNTESS TEKLA. By Robert Barr jflBctbuen's Sispenns Xibrats The Matabele Campaign. By Major.General Baden-Powell. ' The Downfall of PrEMPEH. By Major.General Baden-Fowell. MY Danish sweetheart. By W. Clark Russell; IN THE ROAR OF THE SEA. By S. Baring- Gould. Peggy of the bartons.' By B. M. Croker. THE Green graves of Balgowrie. By Jane H. Findlater. . ■ . THE STOLEN SaCILLUS. ByH. G. Wells. Matthew Austin. By W. E. Norris. The conquest of London. By Dorothea Gerard. A Voyage of CONSOLA'noN. By Sara J. Duncan. The Mutable many. 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